Flight paths

July was the best month for financial stuff since 2020. Last month the Dow jumped 6.7%. The S&P 500 was ahead over 9%. The techy Nasdaq swelled 12%.

If you got spooked and went into cash in June, big fail. You turned paper losses into real ones. You let inflation eat your lunch. You guaranteed missing the days of recovery that always, always come. All for emotion.

What’s goin’ on with this rebound?

The street economy is hot. Record job openings in Canada. Unemployment rates here and in the US are in “full employment” mode. Manufacturing in the States expanded in July for the 26th month in a row. That doesn’t exactly sound like a recession, does it? And wholesale prices are dropping fast – the biggest monthly decline in 12 years, despite high consumer inflation. Oil prices are down 22% over the last few months. Bond yields have tumbled – the Canada Five-Year is 90 beeps lower than just weeks ago. In other words, we may already have seen peak inflation.

Mostly, however, the Fed boss sounded a tad less macho and a soupçon more dovish last week. Yeah, rates will continue to go up in the US and again here next month, but there’s hope now for a pause by the end of the year.

So, big rally. Stocks and ETFs based upon them went up in a single month the same as they might in a good year.

But wait, could this be a dead cat bounce? A market trap? Is this surge just a fortuitous time to get your money out and into something safe, like a kitchen reno?

Dunno. But those are questions market-timers ask each other and vex over in useless stock market cowboy chat rooms. It gives the equity-selling snakes on BNN something to fill the air with. And you should ignore it all.

For all the reasons Ryan, Doug and I have yammered about on this blog, any rate-induced recession is likely to be short and shallow. CBs know the score. They want inflation curtailed. They do not want the economy murdered. The labour market’s incredibly strong. Consumers still want to buy stuff, go places and satisfy their pent-up Covid desires. The wonky supply chain will get fixed. The Putin war will inevitably end.

The world may be an indebted, messed-up, climate-challenged and politically-ripped place with problems your grandchildren will regret, but we are not going down now or in the rest of this decade. Remember the rules. Invest when you have money. Stay invested. Stop being emotional.

Now also recall what we’ve been telling you about financial assets and real ones. Liquid securities fall early and snap back fast. Property plops more slowly, and its return can be glacial.

Where are we now with real estate?

Bond yields have dropped (and prices risen with demand), which has meant some small decreases in mortgage rates, mostly among junior lenders. But prices have not yet retreated enough to compensate for higher financing charges nor make housing any more affordable. Huge numbers of properties have been delisted as sellers withdraw because (a) buyers are few and far between and (b) those obscene valuations of last February are gone. In their mind, they do not want to bail out, “at a loss”. Weird.

So, sales have collapsed. And here’s a good snapshot – from the huge Region of Peel to the west of Toronto, including the cities of Mississauga and Brampton (1.5 million souls). Sales crashed by two-thirds vs 2020. The worst in a quarter-century.

Source: Toronto Regional Real Estate Board

And prices? Also falling. Days ago we told you about the 22% fade for detached homes in 416, and that prices year/year for all properties have turned negative. Despite the decline, transactions are crashing. Remember all those people who told you, “If prices ever come down by 15% buyers will be rushing in to snap properties up”? They now need to eat their hat.

Sales crater first. Sales prices later. The correction has only started. Go ahead and buy, if you want. But don’t expect capital gains for years. This time a house is just a home. Imagine that.

About the picture: “I’ve been doing this for years and it just occurred to me that you might get a laugh out of it,” writes pilot Aaron. “We have two young lads at home so there are many days I don’t find time for the blog. At work I will go back and load pages of all the missed days for offline reading.  I’ve been reading for near 10 years now, thanks for taking me out of financial kindergarten. Here I am getting “educated” at 35,000’ and moving at 820km/h with Winnipeg going by. It’s not a dog photo (we have an 8 year old mutt rescue! MDSU!) but feel free to use it.” 

126 comments ↓

#1 Caffeine Monkey on 08.01.22 at 1:40 pm

Perma-bulls have gone from “it’s impossible for real estate to drop” to “it’s impossible for real estate to drop in the City of Toronto” to “okay yes real estate has dropped but it will be short lived and bounce back next year!!!”.

#2 How high can you fly on 08.01.22 at 1:42 pm

Sheesh, even more reasons not to fly…..

#3 old gringo on 08.01.22 at 1:59 pm

Seeing tons of sellers listing after buying in the last year and trying to escape the slaughter that is on its way here on Vancouver Island.
Prices increase by 50% in the last 24 months and has definitely peaked.
Its about to get ugly even with the locals still saying”its different hereon the rock”.
Ha ha dont think so!!!!

#4 Andrewski on 08.01.22 at 1:59 pm

My dogs love to see a dead cat bounce, me not so much.

#5 Feds on 08.01.22 at 2:03 pm

I think it’s important to highlight that even if inflation has peaked, which may prove to be incorrect, it doesn’t mean that it is going back to 2%. We could have inflation in the 4-6% range for a long time and the central banks will have to keep on it. i would be careful if you think we are in the all clear now.

#6 Habitt on 08.01.22 at 2:04 pm

Thanks for the good post today and posting on a holiday.

#7 Prince Polo on 08.01.22 at 2:10 pm

Speaking of eating hats, will the shyster cartel switch from being the self-proclaimed “GOAT” profession to living a goat diet (hats & empty tin cans)?

#8 Km on 08.01.22 at 2:14 pm

Tik tok is full of realtors trying to convince people to buy now as it is a buyers market and the time is now. Most are quite young and never seen an actual real downturn, it will be interesting to see how many remain realtors in the next few years. Hopefully this will be a meaningful correction but after the past two decades of housing slowing becoming only for the rich I highly doubt it.

#9 Cheese on 08.01.22 at 2:17 pm

To move XEG into VFV or not, that is the question…..

#10 Sam on 08.01.22 at 2:18 pm

Garth stated in big blogs real estate will not crash in GTA. In fact he suggested buying condos when they softened back in 2020 as RTO was going to make people move back to the GTA and demand for condos to rise and thus price. Garth did say real estate in the outskirts such as Cambridge and Milton would crash though.

#11 Sail Away on 08.01.22 at 2:18 pm

“The world may be an indebted, messed-up, climate-challenged and politically-ripped place with problems your grandchildren will regret…”

———-

Actually, the world (the natural world, anyway) is pretty good.

People are just drama queens.

#12 crowdedelevatorfartz on 08.01.22 at 2:32 pm

Classic photo from the cockpit.
I flew back from Halifax last week direct to Vancouver. No stops.
We flew a much more northern route ( over Norway House Manitoba ) than normal.
6 hours from Hfx to Van.
Sweet!
Air Canada should do that flight more often in the summer.
Plane was packed.

#13 Paddy on 08.01.22 at 2:41 pm

Me and my wife live in a house that has more room than we’ll ever need and paid a decent price for it. We both make very respectable incomes and live life pretty modestly. We do go on a couple trips every year and wife drives a modest new vehicle. I drive a 2007 VW. Other than the house and car, we don’t have debt. We don’t have kids. Either we are really bad with our money(we are not, save 10% of income every month) or things are just bloody expensive here in the great white north, cause there ain’t much left at the end of the month. I guess the point of my blabbing is: how the hell do families afford to live in this country?

#14 Flop… on 08.01.22 at 2:44 pm

Yeah, that’s the sales side of things, but what about the people that come here for the blood and guts?

Stouffville down half a million since the peak.

Caledonian down roughly the same.

King, the big one, according to this realtor, down nearly a million since February.

Too gory?

O.k, I’ll put away the chainsaw…

M48BC

https://mobile.twitter.com/daniel_foch/status/1554089625865670657/photo/1

#15 The Original Jake on 08.01.22 at 2:45 pm

You know real estate is in a funk when your physical mailbox is packed with realtors promoting recent sales activity. There was a time when all they had to do was show up and count the money. Now, they will have to start working for it. So cruel.

#16 Shawn on 08.01.22 at 2:50 pm

Which came first? Inflation or people with excess money?

On vacation in the maritimes and expensive restaurants and hotels are jammed. No shortage of money.

#17 Søren Angst on 08.01.22 at 2:53 pm

“Off-peak calculations for GTA average house price, February to July 2022”

a.k.a., -16.4% avg price drop in Trauma and that’s pretty much the good news…

https://twitter.com/daniel_foch/status/1554089625865670657

Yup, -40% price drop end of 2022 here we come.

And the CB fun has just begun.

——————–

https://www.google.com/finance/quote/ENB:TSE?comparison=TSE%3ATRP%2CTSE%3ASU%2CTSE%3APPL%2CTSE%3ACVE&window=YTD

[a.k.a., yeah 🍁 Oil Oracle Doug]

🍁 NXF that I own, +20.16% YTD ETF stock price excl dividends. 8.24% div yield paid quarterly.

Thank you Kunickstan. Mille Grazie.

#18 Nihilist on 08.01.22 at 2:53 pm

Hike the interest rates some more, and let the Toronto real estate bubble crash like it did in 1991.

#19 Stuck on Stupid on 08.01.22 at 2:54 pm

This is funny as hell – if each home or condo drops by 40k per month and they own 6 – that is a quarter million dollars lost every month. Are these people stupid or just don’t think?

#20 Sail Away on 08.01.22 at 3:00 pm

An experience on this morning’s mountain run relevant to the multi-tasking flying pic: after summiting and making our way down the steep, rocky descent, we could clearly hear someone behind us, close-ish, but out of view, talking loudly on their cell. This went on for 10 minutes or so, then a mighty ‘Yawp!’ and silence.

#21 Apocalypse NOW on 08.01.22 at 3:09 pm

Flight paths.

Prophetic.

Pelosi has already flown to Singapore. Taiwan is soon.

https://www.cnn.com/2022/08/01/politics/nancy-pelosi-taiwan-visit/index.html

Trudeau has been advised what is likely next. That’s why he has just left on a flight to save his family, on a ‘vacation’ to Costa Rica.

https://nationalpost.com/news/canada/out-of-office-reply-prime-minister-trudeau-family-on-holiday-in-costa-rica

As we approach August 6, the 77th anniversary, things are looking more grim by the hour.

The probability of nuclear conflagration around the globe is now over 95% in the next week.

Stores are still open on this holiday. Stock up. Get out of town.

Just like Justin.

PREPARE

#22 Linda on 08.01.22 at 3:11 pm

Call the reluctance to lower prices the dark side of ‘recency bias’. Doesn’t matter if the would be seller is still selling for way more than they paid; the expectation is that if another property on the street sold for X then getting less than that is a ‘loss’. This is why I look at valuations with a jaundiced eye. Like our annual property tax assessment, based on ‘average prices’ for ‘similar’ properties as of month X of the previous year. Just because the government says your property is worth X (ditto any RE agent/appraiser) does NOT mean that is what it will sell for. Or even sell for that matter. That depends on whether there is anyone out there willing to pay X for your place if & when it goes up for sale. A few months ago the list price was just the opening bid price thrown out to a pool of frenzied purchasers. Now it more closely resembles hopium, in that the seller hopes to find someone willing to pay their asking price, always supposing anyone actually wants to buy.

#23 TurnerNation on 08.01.22 at 3:12 pm

Orderly wind down of the Former First World Countries.
The words “ERs” and “Closing” never should be uttered in a First World Country. And they’ve had years of preperation. But we know those days are over.

https://vancouversun.com/health/b-c-has-4265-unfilled-nursing-jobs-its-one-reason-why-ers-are-closing
B.C. has 4,265 unfilled nursing jobs — it’s one reason why ERs are closing
Statistics Canada says B.C. is short 4,265 nurses. The results are closed ERs, and stressed patients and staff

https://torontosun.com/opinion/columnists/furey-it-feels-like-so-many-things-are-falling-apart-in-canada
FUREY: It feels like so many things are falling apart in Canada

.Australia: Nurses have walked out of a major Sydney hospital this morning over “horrendous” working conditions and “unsafe” staffing plans in the facility’s intensive care unit. (9news.com.au)

—– We are this close to 2019 normal!

https://www.utoronto.ca/news/u-t-partners-moderna-advance-research-rna-science-and-technology
U of T partners with Moderna to advance research in RNA science and technology

https://www.utoronto.ca/utogether/faqs
Recently, U of T reinstated the vaccination requirement for students and employees living in University residences. Students living in residences this fall will be required to have a primary series of a COVID-19 vaccine and at least one booster dose before moving in.

#24 Apocalypse NOW on 08.01.22 at 3:12 pm

Flight paths.

Prophetic words.

Pelosi has already flown to Singapore. Taiwan is soon. China is ready for action.

https://www.cnn.com/2022/08/01/politics/nancy-pelosi-taiwan-visit/index.html

Trudeau has been advised what is likely next. That’s why he has just left on a flight to save his family, on a ‘vacation’ to Costa Rica.

https://nationalpost.com/news/canada/out-of-office-reply-prime-minister-trudeau-family-on-holiday-in-costa-rica

As we approach August 6, the 77th anniversary, things are looking more grim by the hour.

The probability of nuclear conflagration around the globe is now over 95% in the next week.

Stores are still open on this holiday. Stock up. Get out of town.

Just like Justin.

PREPARE

#25 Old Ron the Realtor on 08.01.22 at 3:15 pm

You are on a roll Sir Garth. You called the crash, even timed it right. I questioned the size of the rate hikes, but you got that right as well. Then you got the Stock market bounce right. You should do this for a living.

Toronto Real Estate July Market Watch comes out this week.

#26 Bezengy on 08.01.22 at 3:24 pm

I expect John Tory will be asking for more provincial and federal funds (or shall we say a team effort approach) to cover the shortfall in LTT revenue. If I were him I’d be demanding MPAC re-assess property values based on 2021 figures, you know, before values dropped off a cliff.

#27 Yukon Elvis on 08.01.22 at 3:29 pm

Europe is looking for an alternative to Russian nat gas. Things might be looking up for the Canadian oil and gas industry. TC will complete Coastal Gas Link Pipeline in 2023 and will be able to deliver up to 5 billion cu.ft. of gas per day to Kitimat for export.
ENB just invested 1.5 billion in building the Woodfiber nat gas terminal near Squamish B.C.
Did my quarterly drip last week and they are paying me 5 and 6% div to watch and wait.

#28 Roial1 on 08.01.22 at 3:32 pm

#2 How high can you fly on 08.01.22 at 1:42 pm

Sheesh, even more reasons not to fly…..

What? never heard of “auto pilot”

#29 Felix on 08.01.22 at 3:33 pm

But wait, could this be a dead cat bounce?

—————————————————

Mr. Turner,

Cease and desist in using this discriminatory, racist, hateful and outdated expression.

It is also completely counterfactual and does not hold up to scientific analysis (something that dogawful mutts and their low IQ owners are incapable of)

Did you know:

Over 50% of dogs today are overweight, even morbidly obese.

https://breedingbusiness.com/is-my-dog-overweight/#:~:text=In%20the%20USA%2C%20approximately%2025%20to%2030%25%20of,dogs%20struggle%20with%20the%20harmful%20effects%20of%20obesity.

“In the USA, approximately 25 to 30% of the dog population is obese. A further 40 to 45% of dogs are overweight. This means that a significant number of dogs struggle with the harmful effects of obesity. ”

https://www.akc.org/expert-advice/nutrition/obesity-in-dogs-a-major-health-threat-hiding-in-plain-sight/

So, really, which animal is more likely to “bounce”…?

It sure as hell isn’t a cat!

#30 Quintilian on 08.01.22 at 3:35 pm

“Sales crater first. Sales prices later. The correction has only started. Go ahead and buy, if you want. But don’t expect capital gains for years. This time a house is just a home. Imagine that.”

I would also add that suddenly “the shortage of supply” myth will soon be dispelled, along with the thousands and thousands of rich immigrants will save the market fantasy.

Tick Tock, Tick Tock

#31 Ponzius Pilatus on 08.01.22 at 3:47 pm

#11 Sail Away on 08.01.22 at 2:18 pm
“The world may be an indebted, messed-up, climate-challenged and politically-ripped place with problems your grandchildren will regret…”

———-

Actually, the world (the natural world, anyway) is pretty good.

People are just drama queens.
———————-
Actually, nature and people don’t mix very well.
God is no match for the developers.

#32 Ponzius Pilatus on 08.01.22 at 3:50 pm

#12 crowdedelevatorfartz on 08.01.22 at 2:32 pm
Classic photo from the cockpit.
I flew back from Halifax last week direct to Vancouver. No stops.
We flew a much more northern route ( over Norway House Manitoba ) than normal.
6 hours from Hfx to Van.
Sweet!
Air Canada should do that flight more often in the summer.
Plane was packed.
—————————
Furz,
You don’t need Face Book to share your little stories.
You’ve got a captive audience right here.

#33 Stroller on 08.01.22 at 3:51 pm

RE the photo….

The 350 people sitting behind you would probably appreciate knowing that the two people at the controls will have their blog-reading interrupted and be brought back to the job at hand by a Master Caution if they don’t make a transmission or tinker with the FMC every few minutes.

#34 Dave on 08.01.22 at 3:52 pm

In the month of February on Vancouver Island there were an average of 1300 detached listings available at laughable prices, now there are over 5000 average listings and the prices are all over the map.
Lots of panic in the market here.

#35 Mdme Guillotine on 08.01.22 at 3:59 pm

So is the US in a recession.

Confucius once observed that “When words lose their meaning, people lose their freedom.”

#36 Dr V on 08.01.22 at 4:02 pm

“But wait, could this be a dead cat bounce? A market trap? Is this surge just a fortuitous time to get your money out and into something safe, like a kitchen reno?

Dunno. But those are questions market-timers ask each other and vex over in useless stock market cowboy chat rooms. It gives the equity-selling snakes on BNN something to fill the air with. And you should ignore it all.

For all the reasons Ryan, Doug and I have yammered about on this blog, any rate-induced recession is likely to be short and shallow. CBs know the score. They want inflation curtailed. They do not want the economy murdered.”
——————————————————–

Blogger Brian gave this link from Wolfstreet.

https://wolfstreet.com/2022/07/31/the-wolf-street-report-markets-are-fighting-the-fed/

Seems the glass is either half empty or half full. People interpret the feds talk and actions either way.

#37 When the Whip Comes Down on 08.01.22 at 4:09 pm

Not sure where “Dave” gets his information he may want to elaborate on what looks incredibly off.
Vancouver Island – listings? Where are you pulling 5000 average listings from as of now? This is indeed a laughable assertion. As far as Victoria goes, in February there were about 1300 as noted, however, there are now about 2200. The island is not just Victoria but you’re losing me on where you get this 5000 number.

#38 Freedom First on 08.01.22 at 4:10 pm

I believe there is an attack on citizens in countries world wide by communists, fascists, and dictators. This attack began in the way you put a frog in warm water, and then gradually turn up the heat so the frog does not realize it is going to be boiled alive.

Freedom First

#39 Warren-the-lagging_indicator on 08.01.22 at 4:28 pm

Inflation is transitory and recession is transitional. To deny either is transphobic. Shame on you.

#40 NOSTRADAMUS on 08.01.22 at 4:33 pm

TWIN DEVILS!
The problem for soooo many soothsayers rests on the assumption that the economy will behave as it has in the past. But sometimes, the past is another country. The key to successful forecasting is spotting the changes that indicate that things will not turn out as they did in the past. New point. I’ve talked about the withdrawal of liquidity for so long, I’m now tired of hearing myself talk about it. For the second last time. The withdrawal of liquidity will trump a rise in interest rates 100% of the time. When you twin these two devils, there is not a soothsayer worth his salt who can give you a glimpse into the future. No Sireee. Steady Lads, hold the line.

#41 Wrk.dover on 08.01.22 at 4:39 pm

That’s all there is to see folks!

The night I flew over the Peg, I was amazed at how small and contained the light field was. Then came the endless pin points of hamlets on and on into the west.

The next day, I while I was arguing with my wife about the Grand Canyon being the flat irregular pattern below us, the pilot made an announcement, vindicating me.

Just a little more chit chat for those whom have never been beyond the Lake Ontario/ St. Lawrence watershed system.

I like the days the NY markets are closed, while the TSE is in session, better than days like this one. It seems maple stocks are as uppa uppa in nature as CDN RE, when left to perform on their own.

#42 Bezengy on 08.01.22 at 4:48 pm

The new breed of long haul truckers have proven that one can watch movies and operate a 100k lb vehicle safely 99 percent of the time. Not to worry.

#43 Wrk.dover on 08.01.22 at 4:49 pm

#33 Stroller on 08.01.22 at 3:51 pm
RE the photo….

The 350 people sitting behind you would probably appreciate knowing that the two people at the controls will have their blog-reading interrupted and be brought back to the job at hand by a Master Caution if they don’t make a transmission or tinker with the FMC every few minutes.
__________________________

Flying Air Nova to Boston to Halifax late one night, pre 911, I went to the cockpit to ask “where will we make landfall in NS”, after it seemed we should have long ago, that overcast night. I was answered with confusion between the pilots, and sent to my seat. Then we banked and turned hard to starboard about 110 degrees, landing in Halifax more than fifteen minutes later.

#44 Ustabe on 08.01.22 at 4:53 pm

#20 Sail Away on 08.01.22 at 3:00 pm

An experience on this morning’s mountain run relevant to the multi-tasking flying pic: after summiting and making our way down the steep, rocky descent…

1023 meters is hardly “summiting”. By the way, proper English would be “after reaching the summit and making…”

Nice of you to not go back to ensure the following hiker wasn’t seriously hurt.

#45 Grunt on 08.01.22 at 4:55 pm

The media is saying the march back to the office is SLOWer in downtown Toronto than elsewhere.

#46 Dr V on 08.01.22 at 4:56 pm

3 old gringo

“Seeing tons of sellers listing after buying in the last year and trying to escape the slaughter that is on its way here on Vancouver Island.”
———————————————

The listings have increased in my area, but the only person I know who bought in the last year also sold and probably put a half mil in their jeans.

What evidence do you have of this trend for recent buyers?

and Dave 34

“Lots of panic in the market here.”
—————————————————-

Looks more like people hoping to catch what remains of the insanity. Not seeing the panic. Maybe a couple more rate hikes will do it.

Looking forward to the market update. Should be available late this week.

http://www.vireb.com/index.php?page=20

#47 Leon Smuk $54.20 hahahaha on 08.01.22 at 5:07 pm

This is your captain ladies and gentleman, we’re going to be a little delayed. I was busy reading a blog and flew by your airport. Thanks for flying with us and enjoy your flight.

#48 Tony on 08.01.22 at 5:12 pm

Re: #35 Mdme Guillotine on 08.01.22 at 3:59 pm

They read Volcker’s playbook but I doubt the American public will fall for it. There’s no signs at all of recession in America today.

#49 rampant inflation on 08.01.22 at 5:17 pm

How do Albertans feel about this….

Alberta government paid Dr. Deena Hinshaw record cash bonus in 2021

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/edmonton/alberta-hinshaw-pay-bonus-2021-1.6536845

Chief medical officer of health:
$363k base salary
$228K extra due to work during covid
$262k to protect Hinshaw by private security firm

now THAT”S what you call INFLATION!!
what a joke

#50 Penny Henny on 08.01.22 at 5:18 pm

It’s not a dog photo (we have an 8 year old mutt rescue! MDSU!) but feel free to use it.” =Pilot Aaron.

/////////

MDSU? That’s a strange name for a dog.

#51 NOSTRADAMUS on 08.01.22 at 5:18 pm

I DON’T USUALLY DWELL ON THE PAST…BUT,
For years the Brinks truck would drop by the real estate office, late, late at night, far away from daytime inquisitive eyes. Out the back door, dressed in camouflage and hugging the building would appear the real estate broker owner carrying large satchels of commission money. That was yesterday, today the Brinks truck no longer stops. The only thing the broker owner is taking out is the trash, all the while checking for hired Banker and CRA assassins. My how the times have changed. Are you not entertained?

#52 Stone on 08.01.22 at 5:25 pm

Yup! July was a good month. Feeling pretty happy with my B&D portfolio and that it’s currently sitting at -7.56% YTD. My monthly summary is below.

https://www.fomotina.com/monthly-portfolio-update-july-2022/

#53 wallflower on 08.01.22 at 5:30 pm

From stats in this southern Ontariowe city, I maintain that the canary is condo rentals.
As of today, all time peak for numbers of units available for rent.
DOM at all time peak.
50% units have slashed prices and still not renting.
The specuvestors getting SLAPPED.

This is the future funnel that cracks the spine of RE.
We ain’t seen nothin’ yet.

#54 Dave on 08.01.22 at 5:40 pm

Quite the listing history for this home in bunnypatch. I wonder what it will sell for….probably $800,000. How many more listings though?

Buy/sell history for 22 Livingston Dr, Caledon (Detached)
$999,000For Sale
List: 2022-07-28 |
W5713368

$1,499,000Terminated
View
List: 2022-07-19 | End: 2022-07-28
W5702838

$1,579,000Terminated
View
List: 2022-07-05 | End: 2022-07-19
W5685002

$1,579,000Expired
View
List: 2022-04-27 | End: 2022-06-30
W5594180

$1,699,000Terminated
View
List: 2022-03-10 | End: 2022-04-27
W5532127

$825,000 Sold
View
List: 2018-01-29 | End: 2018-02-15
W4030462

#55 crowdedelevatorfartz on 08.01.22 at 5:44 pm

@#43 wrk.dvr

Before 9/11 I was on a puddle jumper flight from Ch’Town to HFX in a dash8 turboprop.
It was the last flight of the night and I was the only passenger .
The two pilots asked me if I was a nervous flier.
I laughed and said, ‘Nope. Giver all she’s got and try and amaze me!”
We left the runway and went almost straight up I swear to God.
Loose garbage stuff was tumbling down the aisle.
Took about 5 minutes to reach altitude and immediately we started to descend into hfx.
About 20 mins from gate to gate.
Spent more time taxiing than flying.

#56 Love_The_Cottage on 08.01.22 at 5:51 pm

I had a great laugh at the regulars who post here multiple times per days bragging about not having a fb account. You spend time posting your drivel here for strangers but think fb is a waste of time. :-)

I use facebook to stay in touch with family and friends from around the country. No food photos, no politics just family updates. Graduations. Vacations. Parties. Concerts. You now, life. You can find a lot of crap if you’re looking for it, if not it’s benign.

#57 the Jaguar on 08.01.22 at 5:51 pm

Of course today’s photo is a reminder Captain Ross hasn’t posted for some time. I miss him.

Sending this old number out to you Captain Ross. Pushing 30 degrees here in Cowtown this August long weekend, but there is nobody hotter than this artist singing one his signature tunes, even if he stole all his dance moves from the Jaguar…

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hMhEzd9Bsb4

#58 jess on 08.01.22 at 5:57 pm

This or that?

Pumped storage hydropower plant Nant de Drance
Canton of Valais, Switzerland
Hydroeletric power plants, undergroud works
Massive pumped-hydro storage facility comes online in Switzerland
The Nant de Drance facility began commercial operations on July 1 and is currently one of Europe’s largest pumped-hydro storage stations.
July 4, 2022 Emiliano Bellini
Swiss renewable energy producer Alpiq announced last week that a 900 MW pumped-hydro storage facility built in Finhaut, in the canton of Valais, Switzerland, has started commercial operations.
The hydropower station is owned by Alpiq itself (39%), Swiss Federal Railways (36%), Industrielle Werke Basel (15%), and Forces Motrices Valaisannes (10%). Its construction started in 2008 and it uses two different water reservoirs at the Émosson Dam, which was completed in 1974.
Located in a cave 600 m underground between the Emosson and Vieux Emosson reservoirs, the Nant de Drance power plant relies on six pump turbines, each with a power capacity of 150 MW. It uses the Emosson and Vieux Emosson reservoirs to operate. The water stored in the upper reservoir of Vieux-Emosson, which has a storage capacity of 227,000,000 m3, or 20 million kWh, falls into the underground power station via two vertical shafts that are 425 m high.

===================

Wonderland Eurasia

est. 800m and six years later opened march 2019
promoted earnings for the Ankara municipality around 10m /year
February 2020 closed its doors losses incurred by its operator

#59 Joseph R. on 08.01.22 at 6:01 pm

DELETED (Anti-vaccine)

#60 Ponzius Pilatus on 08.01.22 at 6:12 pm

#38 Freedom First on 08.01.22 at 4:10 pm
I believe there is an attack on citizens in countries world wide by communists, fascists, and dictators.
————-
Yep,
In Europe, it’s Hungarian President Victor Urban.
An vile right wing fascist that would make even Goebels proud.
And he’s a keynote speaker at the upcoming CPAC Republican convention.
And you’d think that the Republicans had enough nut wings of it’s own to fill the podium.

#61 Victor Llearna on 08.01.22 at 6:19 pm

Prices will really start to fall when the stupid sheep that bought at sky high prices need to renew their mortgages. That when those sheep really learn a lesson

Try not to gloat. Your day will come. – Garth

#62 jess on 08.01.22 at 6:28 pm

US kills al Qaeda leader Ayman al-Zawahiri in drone strike in Afghanistan

https://www.fbi.gov/wanted/wanted_terrorists/ayman-al-zawahiri/

The US State Department had offered a reward of up to $25 million for information leading directly to the capture of Zawahiri.

#63 Penny Henny on 08.01.22 at 6:28 pm

#54 Dave on 08.01.22 at 5:40 pm
Quite the listing history for this home in bunnypatch. I wonder what it will sell for….probably $800,000. How many more listings though?

Buy/sell history for 22 Livingston Dr, Caledon (Detached)
$999,000For Sale
List: 2022-07-28 |
W5713368
/////////////////

Without looking at the listing I’m gonna guess 1.3 M.
Lets us know what happens.

#64 edip on 08.01.22 at 6:30 pm

The price of real estate didn’t go down.. The average price of what was sold is down. I’m looking in the same building for an apartment in Coquitlam and prices are the same as in the spring…. Yes, the prices didn’t go up and the sales are down but people don’t sell for less… or at least not yet.

#65 Sail Away on 08.01.22 at 6:38 pm

#49 rampant inflation on 08.01.22 at 5:17 pm

Alberta government paid Dr. Deena Hinshaw record cash bonus in 2021

———-

Wow, all that cash and she still cuts her own hair!

Self sufficiency, baby.

#66 crowdedelevatorfartz on 08.01.22 at 6:39 pm

@#60 Punzies Puns
“In Europe, it’s Hungarian President Victor Urban.”
+++
I thought his name was Victor Orban but Urban sounds better.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/jul/30/alarm-grows-as-orban-prepares-to-take-pure-nazi-rhetoric-to-us

He gets to speak at a Republican rally?
Bizarre.

#67 Nonplused on 08.01.22 at 6:45 pm

Inflation in Canada and Europe cannot go down even if oil prices do because of the obscene green agenda, which is not green but very anti-human. We’re getting truly obscene carbon taxes, pinwheels and solar calculators that don’t scale and don’t work when we need them to and don’t last very long before they need to be landfilled or just abandoned in the fields, and now a war on farming. And the solution that might work (natural gas for now and build gen IV nuclear like crazy) isn’t even being discussed.

Where Europe is going right now we will soon follow and it is all because we put the dean of the drama department in charge of energy policy. Remember at all times one simple maxim: Energy is the economy and nothing else.

#68 Sail Away on 08.01.22 at 6:50 pm

#56 Love_The_Cottage on 08.01.22 at 5:51 pm

I had a great laugh at the regulars who post here multiple times per days bragging about not having a fb account. You spend time posting your drivel here for strangers but think fb is a waste of time. :-)

I use facebook to stay in touch with family and friends from around the country.

———

That’s cool. You’re allowed to be on facebook. No harm, no foul.

I’m personally not a facebookie, which is also cool with most people.

#69 Penny Henny on 08.01.22 at 6:59 pm

#52 Stone on 08.01.22 at 5:25 pm
Yup! July was a good month. Feeling pretty happy with my B&D portfolio and that it’s currently sitting at -7.56% YTD.
///////////////////

So sorry for your loss(es).
My B&D is up 8.5%. B&D being Bluechip, high Dividend payers. See the B and D in there.
All Canadian and tax free too.
Though I may have to cycle out of this in the near future, we’llsee.

#70 PeterfromCalgary on 08.01.22 at 7:05 pm

Speaking of flying much of Africa is just two flights to Toronto. We do need to be concerned about them not having enough small pox vaccine which is currently used to fight monkey pox.

#71 JacqueShellacque on 08.01.22 at 7:17 pm

“July was the best month for financial stuff since 2020. Last month the Dow jumped 6.7%. The S&P 500 was ahead over 9%. The techy Nasdaq swelled 12%.”

Just another 16% increase and S&P 500 will be back to January levels. Path dependence, Garth: the July brag ignores what’s been a terrible year for assets.

Corrections happen. Don’t get your shorts in a twist. – Garth

#72 jess on 08.01.22 at 7:32 pm

the culture

U.S. Bank (NASDAQ:USB) is a Minneapolis-based bank with over $559 billion in assets, making it the fifth largest bank in the U.S. It operates more than 2,800 banking branches

For over a decade, U.S. Bank knew its employees were taking advantage of its customers by misappropriating consumer data to create fictitious accounts,” said CFPB Director Rohit Chopra in a press release.

CFPB Fines U.S. Bank $37.5 Million for Illegally Exploiting Personal Data to Open Sham Accounts for Unsuspecting Customers

The bank pressured employees to sell, leading them to access credit reports and open accounts without permission
JUL 28, 2022

https://www.consumerfinance.gov/about-us/newsroom/cfpb-fines-us-bank-37-5-million-for-illegally-exploiting-personal-data-to-open-sham-accounts-for-unsuspecting-customers/

#73 TurnerNation on 08.01.22 at 7:33 pm

Supply chain. The first thing to be cut during a war.
Dialing us back to the Stone ages. I maintain the “Essential goods” training and endless Supply chain issues is prepping us. Getting us used to the New Normal. The history books record, all famines are man-made (government made).

.WEF proposes using “wind-powered boats” to decarbonize the shipping industry (thecountersignal.com)

——–

All the old culture must go Comrade. I said this in 2020 when everything got shut down. Today?
Rationing, we are at War. WW3 kicked off, 3/20.
Christmas will again of course be cancelled. Hunker down, the Permanent Rolling Lockdowns are back.

.Germany could be forced to scrap Oktoberfest celebrations and its famous Christmas markets as officials desperately search for ways to save energy after Russia began throttling gas supplies to Europe. (dailymail.co.uk)

#74 PBrasseur on 08.01.22 at 7:36 pm

So high inflation and low unemployment, not like we haven’t seen this before, like 1976 for example.

What followed wasn’t pretty then, I doubt this time will be better.

#75 Stone on 08.01.22 at 7:41 pm

#69 Penny Henny on 08.01.22 at 6:59 pm
#52 Stone on 08.01.22 at 5:25 pm
Yup! July was a good month. Feeling pretty happy with my B&D portfolio and that it’s currently sitting at -7.56% YTD.
///////////////////

So sorry for your loss(es).
My B&D is up 8.5%. B&D being Bluechip, high Dividend payers. See the B and D in there.
All Canadian and tax free too.
Though I may have to cycle out of this in the near future, we’llsee.

———

Nothing to be sorry about. Since I stay invested, there are no losses to record. I’m not overly concerned. Never went to cash like some. Nerves of steel. I gained my wealth through patience and planning. And my portfolio is fully transparent for all to see.

I congratulate you on your positive return. You deserve a good year. I think this is the first year since I started reading this blog in 2016 that you actually have had a better year than myself. I’ll let you bask in the glory of your moment.

It’s too bad you’ll be going to cash soon again. Gambling isn’t healthy. Physically, mentally and for your pocketbook. That could be a lot of income tax to pay.

#76 Pbrasseur on 08.01.22 at 7:41 pm

The difference between now and 1976: Population ageing, a staggering amount of debt.

What follows won’t be easier than what happened after 1976, in fact it’s likely to be much much worse.

Utopias don’t end calmly, you’d do well to remember that.

#77 Flop… on 08.01.22 at 7:50 pm

I’ve done some pretty stupid things in my life, like moving to France and not speaking French, for example.

So out of 10, how stupid would it be for a guy who grew up in Australia to move to New Brunswick, when I’m not fluent in Snow?

In the background, I’ve been mulling a move for a while, smaller places than Vancouver in BC, was the first option, but cost of living, Bush fires, number of pricks per one hundred people, yada, yada, all had to be considered.

I think if I’m going to put the effort in to moving again, something that used to be more natural and regular, I want to have a dramatic new life experience, not just a parallel version of before.

I guess Australia is always the ultimate back up option, but Mrs Flop can’t stand the heat and is the only person I’ve ever met that calls 17 degrees muggy.

I would mainly do it for a dramatic lifestyle change and access to the Eastern Seaboard of the U.S, which hasn’t always been that easy to explore for a budget traveller from Vancouver.

Guess I’ll get that pesky real estate out of the way first.

So when I was messing around yesterday I found this affordable option in

Saint John for 219k for 1000sq ft, which is o.k just for two people.

https://www.realtor.ca/real-estate/24608433/4-breen-lane-saint-john

After living in Vancouver for 2 decades, and sort of becoming numb to seeing obscene real estate prices, was still surprised despite the national run-up, to see this house for 1.6 being the most expensive in one of the province’s main markets.

How many months of the year would you get to use a pool in New Brunswick?

https://www.realtor.ca/real-estate/24460076/1-sunset-boulevard-fredericton

Job market, slim pickings for my trade, definitely lower wages than Vancouver, but I guess it mirrors the cost of living.

Checked government jobs, didn’t see anything I was qualified at, seeing a carpenter job in this section for roughly $23.50 made me realize what I might be up against.

Medical care, according to these guys, I already live in one of the best places to retire in Canada, so aging in place, and a continuation of what I’m already doing in not the worst thing, but I feel like I’m ready for a new chapter in my life to begin.

https://www.savvynewcanadians.com/best-places-to-retire-in-canada/

Fredericton, NB, came in at number 6 overall.

* “Doctor per 100,000 people: +120.

Fredericton is a small city that offers great amenities. It is the capital city of New Brunswick, a province that aims to take good care of the senior community.”

Saint John, NB, came in at number 9

* “Doctor per 100,000 people: 86.

Right now, Saint John in New Brunswick offers the lowest real estate prices in Canada. It’s also known to be full of the happiest people in Canada. Saint John is right on the Bay of Fundy in Atlantic Canada.”

Dunno, they said Vancouver is a great place to receive medical treatment and everyone I know here complains about it, but that could just be that West Coast bitchyness coming out for a run.

For the potential deal breaker I went to these guys to get the snow-down, low-down.

https://www.currentresults.com/Weather-Extremes/Canada/snowiest-cities.php

I found it depressing, Moncton and Saint John were both in the amount of snow top ten.

The only glimmer of hope I saw is they didn’t feature on the most days of fresh snow, and longest lasting snow tables, which to me indicated that in New Brunswick the snow just magically disappears…

M48BC

#78 IHCTD9 on 08.01.22 at 8:55 pm

#77 Flop… on 08.01.22 at 7:50 pm
—————

I’ve heard out east is getting a bit insular – they’ve been bombarded by Ontario escapees since 2020. I’d suggest Northern Ontario also, but it can get wicked cold and the winters are long. It’s an outdoor paradise though. Thunder Bay and Timmins, are the larger cities that have jobs but still have decent re prices. I’d move up there in a second, but one of the little towns (ie. Nipigon, Kapuskasing etc..) would be my choice.

I feel sort of the same way about southern Ontario now as you do about your BC ‘hood. It was so great out here prior to Covid, now a dump that’s been empty for 20 years with a crawl space and wood windows is 350K. Everyone went bonkers buying RE with $$ in there eyes…

How about just heading north in BC? You live in some beautiful country with the best weather in Canada. At some point there should be a town like Thunder Bay up there where prices/wages are still connected, no?

#79 Wrk.dover on 08.01.22 at 8:56 pm

#77 Flop… on 08.01.22 at 7:50 pm
how stupid would it be for a guy to move to New Brunswick
_____________________

DON’T !

#80 I don't know on 08.01.22 at 8:58 pm

#61 Victor Llearna on 08.01.22 at 6:19 pm

“Stupid Sheep”?

People buy real estate when they can afford to. Waiting benefits nobody and never will.

The price paid for real estate reflects the market conditions at the time. Interest rate hikes have destroyed affordability, and inflation has risen since the market top in February. If those “sheep” you mentioned, locked in rock bottom rates, and plan to live in their homes for years, they are sitting pretty paying 2% interest with inflation at around 8%.

The discussion among the big banks is not only how rates will go (hint: not as high as everyone thinks), but also when they will start to drop. Once the real estate market learns the interest rate ceiling is much lower than feared, demand will return with a vengeance. Although, as our host has mentioned, this may take a while.

IDK

#81 Andy on 08.01.22 at 9:01 pm

Ya gotta love it! Where else other than this blog can you learn so much to manage your financial life (for free!)? Methinks Garth’s crystal ball is one of the best. Not only that but free financial advice given with great humour…”fortuitous time to get your money out and into something safe, like a kitchen reno?” And at the same time improve your vocabulary – word of the day today “soupcon” – love it! Thanks Garth for all you do.

#82 DON on 08.01.22 at 9:12 pm

Real estate on Vancouver Island seems to be in slumber mode.

Driving the Island Highway through all the towns and cities and counting the number of businesses that rely on new home building and real estate services is truly amazing. Also amazing that sheer number of house builders, plumbers, electricians, mortgage brokers etc.

The price of services is UPPA.

The tension is racketing up.

#83 Wrk.dover on 08.01.22 at 9:13 pm

#55 crowdedelevatorfartz on 08.01.22 at 5:44 pm
We left the runway and went almost straight up I swear to God.
_____________________________

Here is the opposite flight for a bed time face time.
March 1980, 737 or DC8?, left Miami for an evening jump to Nassau, with a stop in Freeport. Accelerated up to transcontinental cruise height for ten minutes, then there’s the almost forgotten Freeport runway the size of a grain of rice about to disappear under the wing. Airshow nose dive to the close end of it! Cowboy leveled and did a circle to scrub speed at the last second, as we kept scrubbing altitude in the horizontal attitude! Smooth landing though.

#84 I don't know on 08.01.22 at 9:19 pm

#76 Pbrasseur on 08.01.22 at 7:41 pm

Much has changed since 1976. First off, ETF’s did not exist back then.

Second, the advent of the personal computer, the internet, and the cell phone were game changing. These things are heavily deflationary, as is the aging population demographics you mentioned. Debt levels will also provide a hard ceiling for interest rates.

Basically rate hikes aren’t going anywhere as high as they were in the 70’s and 80’s.

What comes next? Well, anyone who purchased real estate in 1976 and held is fabulously wealthy now. The same is true of the stock market, again, if ETF’s had existed back in 1976. Those who held cash (junk) didn’t do so hot. There is no reason to believe this has changed.

The market bottom likely was in June. Those not fully invested already missed out. Warnings of “what’s coming”? All noise. To be ignored by investors who want to make money.

IDK

#85 Ed on 08.01.22 at 10:02 pm

If you’re journeyman carpenter then Alberta is where you get over the hump. Living out & travel allowance etc etc.

Course not as much culture as in BLM protests or Pride parades but you might get used to it.

#86 crowdedelevatorfartz on 08.01.22 at 11:00 pm

@#79 Wrkdvr
“how stupid would it be for a guy to move to New Brunswick
_____________________

DON’T !”

+++
Yep.
Good advice Floppie.
Carpenters are a dime a dozen in the Maritimes….and if we hit a work slowdown/recession…..tons of underemployed carpenters.
Not to mention that bad ankle of yours would LOVE the freeze/thaw of a Maritime winter.
Keep grinding away in the Lower Brainland like me.
Save some dollahs.
But not a bad place to retire to.

#87 Yukon Elvis on 08.01.22 at 11:17 pm

#83 Wrk.dover on 08.01.22 at 9:13 pm
#55 crowdedelevatorfartz on 08.01.22 at 5:44 pm
We left the runway and went almost straight up I swear to God.
_____________________________

Here is the opposite flight for a bed time face time.
March 1980, 737 or DC8?, left Miami for an evening jump to Nassau, with a stop in Freeport. Accelerated up to transcontinental cruise height for ten minutes, then there’s the almost forgotten Freeport runway the size of a grain of rice about to disappear under the wing. Airshow nose dive to the close end of it! Cowboy leveled and did a circle to scrub speed at the last second, as we kept scrubbing altitude in the horizontal attitude! Smooth landing though.

++++++++++++++++++
I flew from Davao to Manila in 2013. Typhoon Yolanda was on its way. Cebu Pacific Airline, can’t remember what type of plane. Turbulence. Captain announced we had to circle for a bit cuz we could not land in Manila. Circled for an hour or so. I think just burning off fuel in case of bad landing. Did i mention turbulence ? Went down pretty quick, hit the runway in a straight line then the plane went sideways a few times but the pilot got us down in one piece. Tractor towed us the rest of the way to the off ramp. Took a bus to Baguio from there. Couldn’t crap for a week.

#88 Ponzius Pilatus on 08.01.22 at 11:34 pm

#85 Ed on 08.01.22 at 10:02 pm
If you’re journeyman carpenter then Alberta is where you get over the hump. Living out & travel allowance etc etc.

Course not as much culture as in BLM protests or Pride parades but you might get used to it.
——————————

You may wanna stay away from Calgary.
You might get infected.

The Calgary Pride Parade and Festival, presented by TD, is an annual event where thousands gather to celebrate the diversity of the 2SLGBTQ+ community. A variety of events will run throughout August, concluding with the Calgary Pride Parade & Festival on Sunday, September 4, 2022.

#89 Millmech on 08.02.22 at 2:13 am

#69
Took a little profit from these two gems that I picked up last month GETY, TBLT put cash into BBBY this morning and let us see where we go.

#90 NoName on 08.02.22 at 7:02 am

#87 Yukon Elvis on 08.01.22 at 11:17 pm

Took a bus to Baguio from there. Couldn’t crap for a week.

I you told us here about your predicament way back, i would suggest to you to stay on a bas till next stop, ambukalo, and my mother in law would fix you one of “those” dishes, gut flora would flourish instantly.

#91 Fortune500 on 08.02.22 at 8:50 am

Honestly, I am just looking forward to speaking with Canadians about something OTHER than the price of their home, or how much the one down the street sold for, or how so-and-so’s daughter just bought … like it is some kind of major accomplishment that needs to be fawned over.

Having lived overseas for many years, the conversation in this country has been exceedingly dull throughout this housing bull market. There is a whole wide world out there.

#92 IHCTD9 on 08.02.22 at 9:13 am

#77 Flop… on 08.01.22 at 7:50 pm

I would mainly do it for a dramatic lifestyle change and access to the Eastern Seaboard of the U.S, which hasn’t always been that easy to explore for a budget traveller from Vancouver.
___

You could check out the cities East of Kingston along the 401, looks like a decent place will still run you 4-500K, but it’s a quick hop into New England, New York etc out there. Do yourself a favour and stay East of the 416, Cornwall is probably a good option.

IMHO, there’s few good options left for someone new to these areas, you either suffer on the income front out East, or be enslaved to the Bank here in southern Ontario.

I’ve done quite a bit of thinking about this situation, and to me, nothing beats the small (dying) communities along Hwy 11, but you need certain milestones in life to already be met, and to be cut from a certain type of cloth to love living in these places.

#93 Penny Henny on 08.02.22 at 9:31 am

#75 Stone on 08.01.22 at 7:41 pm
#69 Penny Henny on 08.01.22 at 6:59 pm

I congratulate you on your positive return. You deserve a good year. I think this is the first year since I started reading this blog in 2016 that you actually have had a better year than myself.

//////////////////

From Nov 2013 to date (my investing start date).
Personal rate of return annualized 12.69%.

I certainly started out balanced and diversified like you but decided some things weren’t working and made changes.
I held a decent position in XGD for a while and got lucky.
March 2020 was a 30% smackdown, didn’t sell and squeaked out the year +3.7%.
I made some bad choices too, but once again I was lucky that my bad choices were for smallish positions.
All I’m saying is there are different investment portfolios for different people in different positions. What works for you is not for everyone.
Good on you for posting your portfolio on line.

#94 Climate Collapse !!!!!!!!!! on 08.02.22 at 9:41 am

Apparently the climate emergency re-branding wasn’t successful, but neither were any of the other re-branding attempts.

Let’s recap the attempts so far:

1. Man made Global warming
2. Global Warming
3. Catastrophic Global Warming
4. Global Weirding (this one lasted 15 minutes)
5. Climate Change
6. Climate Emergency

Next attempt at re-branding is climate collapse.
Get ready for the liberal media to lose their $hit trying to get everyone wound up about this now.

I wonder what the one after that will be?

My guess is:

Super Super Serious MAGA-Induced Climate CRazieNESS!!

#95 Penny Henny on 08.02.22 at 9:50 am

To Stone.
TLDR- There is more than one way to skin a cat.

#96 Philco on 08.02.22 at 10:12 am

Brownie points Garth.
Ya timing any markets a bad idea.
The key is always buy when / if you can find value.
Which has been difficult.
Anyone that buys on emotion usually gets spanked at some point.
It’s cooling down thank God. Places 3500ft of in floor pex for building #1 in 30deg weather. Good God lol

#97 Quintilian on 08.02.22 at 10:13 am

I think Garth is celebrating a bear market rally.

What celebration? I’m reporting July stats and reminding people that trying to time markets or going to cash is folly. All bear markets turn into bulls. – Garth

#98 Philco on 08.02.22 at 10:13 am

Ps saved $4,000 from the plumbers quote :)

#99 Dragonfly58 on 08.02.22 at 10:24 am

Hi TD, my experience in Northern B.C. is quite out of date. Later 1980’s. At that time most jobs that didn’t require specialized, formal qualifications seemed to be filled by local word of mouth. If you grew up there and had a good reputation , jobs were reasonably easy to find. Particularly if you had a trade or experience in one of the resource industries.
The jobs that were actually advertised and open to the general public were for one reason or another pretty bottom of the barrel situations.
Property will be relatively cheap in Northern B.C. , but everything else is quite expensive. And winter transportation can be a serious problem.
The small towns are both small and very spread out , few in number. Prince George is the only place of any size.
If you are a hunting , fishing, sledding family you will probably find things a good fit. But it is definitely not for everyone.
My Niece just moved to a very middle of nowhere town. She is in Forestry so to be expected for a recent grad. Bought a house. Cheapish, but a lot more than I would of thought a pretty ordinary house would cost in a small , remote town. She said places to rent are more or less nonexistent and if you do find one the rent is more than the payments to buy.

#100 PBrasseur on 08.02.22 at 10:33 am

I’ve said many times that inflation is a problem that can’t be kicked down the road, but what if the politicians don’t want to anyway?

Inflation helps the governments raise more taxes, first because indexation of income taxes exclusion tables don’t keep up and because inflation pushes up nominal tax revenus which helps dilute current debt. Federal government and several provinces (even Quebec) are heading toward a surplus this year. Even the US looks pretty good right now.

What do you think will count most, the fact that we are all getting poorer of the fact that these parasites can sustain themselves a bit longer?

The answer is easy and this is another reason inflation is not going away soon, it’s just another step towards the wall.

#101 Philco on 08.02.22 at 10:36 am

#94 Climate Collapse !!!!!!!!!! on 08.02.22 at 9:41 am

Lol
Fear = control
And T2 at the front of the line.
Shut off Canada and it WOULD NOT move the needle.
I own a lot of trees so I’m waiting for my carbon refund.

#102 Quintilian on 08.02.22 at 11:36 am

“All bear markets turn into bulls. – Garth”

True, absolutely true, however this one is a mere pre fertilized egg.

Few more stages to go before we know it’s not a miscarriage

#103 crowdedelevatorfartz on 08.02.22 at 11:37 am

@#88 Proud Ponzie

Since you seem to be an expert on all things Pride.
Could you give us an attendance count for the 2022 Van Pride Parade Ponzie?
Curiously
There doesnt seem to be any mention of the vast amounts of people in attendance in any media reports.

“Usually over 400,000 show up.” gushed the organizers in March
When reliable estimates range the numbers from 80,000 to 100,000 for the last parades held.
Could interest be waning?
Or are the numbers vastly inflated to receive funding from cooperate advertisers.
Did invisible Mayor Stewart show up?
Perpetual West End Liberal MP exaggerator ( “the crosses are burning in Prince George as I speak”) ….Hedy Fry?
We need to know.

#104 Sail Away on 08.02.22 at 11:38 am

Re: timing the markets

Well, call it what you will, but selectively buying more when markets are well below their peak, and selectively buying less when they are bumping all time highs has worked out swimmingly for the Sail Aways.

When’s the low? Nobody knows… just buy good companies on the way down and eventually they’ll stop going down.

And be both patient and aggressive. Charlie Munger says: “Success means being very patient but aggressive when it’s time.”

Very few people are properly aggressive when everything is low and general sentiment is pessimistic.

#105 IHCTD9 on 08.02.22 at 12:01 pm

#99 Dragonfly58 on 08.02.22 at 10:24 am
Hi TD, my experience in Northern B.C. is quite out of date. Later 1980’s. At that time most jobs that didn’t require specialized, formal qualifications seemed to be filled by local word of mouth. If you grew up there and had a good reputation , jobs were reasonably easy to find. Particularly if you had a trade or experience in one of the resource industries.
The jobs that were actually advertised and open to the general public were for one reason or another pretty bottom of the barrel situations.
Property will be relatively cheap in Northern B.C. , but everything else is quite expensive. And winter transportation can be a serious problem.
The small towns are both small and very spread out , few in number. Prince George is the only place of any size.
If you are a hunting , fishing, sledding family you will probably find things a good fit. But it is definitely not for everyone.
My Niece just moved to a very middle of nowhere town. She is in Forestry so to be expected for a recent grad. Bought a house. Cheapish, but a lot more than I would of thought a pretty ordinary house would cost in a small , remote town. She said places to rent are more or less nonexistent and if you do find one the rent is more than the payments to buy.
___

Sounds like the same basic story as here. That’s why you can’t show up hoping to get ahead, you’d have to show up *already* ahead. A good stack of cash in hand, nest egg already off and running, no debt, and a desire to live a simplistic, low speed, LCOL lifestyle where a minimum wage job would always be enough. If I did this it’d be a part time job with my resulting free time dedicated to living as simply and independently as possible.

If you’ve got the resources, you could design an amazing lifestyle from one of these perches. In BC, it’d be a good boat for saltwater fishing. In Ontario it’d be a pilot’s license and a float plane to fly up north where there is basically no people, and it’s full of remote un-named lakes. The prairie provinces are launchpads into the amazing real GWN of Canada. Out east it’d be more saltwater fishing and exploring some seriously rugged North Atlantic shorelines.

A bud here is going to a northern fishing Lodge in BC at the end of the month. North of Prince Rupert. Sounds like a fishing Mecca, and super beautiful scenery. It sounds just awesome all around. I’d love to live in a place where I could fish giant salmon and halibut every weekend. I wouldn’t care what my day job was as long as it pays the bills! :)

#106 Shawn on 08.02.22 at 12:04 pm

Sydney Cape Breton

Relatively poor area with no industry.

Yet the roads and stores and restaurants are jammed

Health care is huge. Come for a any kind of job in medical or personal care. Houses are cheap. It taxes high.

Are you enterprising? Then come and build a senior assisted living home. There is always opportunities for enterprising people.

#107 Love_The_Cottage on 08.02.22 at 12:19 pm

Where’s the guy who said he knows how to pick stocks to beat the B&D portfolio and was all in on Air Canada?

Down over 25% in the past 6 months as things reopen.

#108 crowdedelevatorfartz on 08.02.22 at 12:23 pm

@#105 IHCTD9
“A bud here is going to a northern fishing Lodge in BC at the end of the month. North of Prince Rupert. ”
++
One of my workers is a licensed fishing guide.
His back can’t take the constant pounding of being in a small boat day after day.
So 2 weeks every summer he takes a “vacation” from our company and goes up to one of several Fishing Lodges that pay him huge money to guide rich people.
He’s guided billionaire owners of NFL football teams. US politicians, you name it.
And he always comes back loaded with fish for us sorry sad sacks grinding away in the city.
He’s up there now.
Getting me some fish.
:)

#109 Philco on 08.02.22 at 12:30 pm

Its not rocket science.
Tranches….bought a $100k
Sitting on a couple more. When peeps get silly have MORE CASH

#110 Dragonfly58 on 08.02.22 at 12:30 pm

Hi TD, I am not a fishing guy at all. But I have heard the remote camps are a great experience for those that are. But seriously expensive.
B.C. is a big , rugged, mostly empty place.
I am a old car guy. 99% of my focus. That hobby gets more and more costly every year. If you don’t have direct access to the U.S.A. for picking up parts, attending events etc. you are dead in the water unless you have a ton of $. I don’t. Options become limited fast. All my old car friends in Washington State and Oregon think we are just plain nuts to live in Canada.
Lowish incomes, highish taxes, play money dollar, cost of living bordering on the absurd. At times I can’t help but agree.

#111 Dr V on 08.02.22 at 12:31 pm

Further to comments on the Fed, it seems to also depend on who at the fed you talk to.

https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/fed-nowhere-near-finished-inflation-142815746.html

It’s almost like their trying to reduce inflation just by talking about more rate hikes, and hoping the markets take the hint, but not actually having to raise the rate by much more.

Seeing mostly red this morning, though SP500 is up.

#112 Sail Away on 08.02.22 at 12:39 pm

#105 IHCTD9 on 08.02.22 at 12:01 pm

I’d love to live in a place where I could fish giant salmon and halibut every weekend. I wouldn’t care what my day job was as long as it pays the bills! :)

——–

Oh, it’s good.

We kept the sailboat in Ucluelet for many years and would drive out most summer Friday nights, sail out through the night to Big Bank 20 miles offshore, heave to and snooze until 4am dawn, then out with the downriggers 30′ and 60′ down, set the autopilot and troll under sail. Limit in an hour almost always.

Then back to the banks, heave to, drop huge herring on the downriggers 30′ above the bottom and troll very slowly under sail for halibut and lings.

Process the fish onboard while sailing in, back in harbour by noon and home mid-afternoon for $10 total gas cost. Weather never mattered with the sailboat, even when all sporties had to stay inshore for windy-ness.

#113 Gr on 08.02.22 at 12:52 pm

Some might be interested.
And I guess you need to start somewhere.
And it all sounds great until you start looking at details and factoring in costs, and who is paying for it all, and things like, “it is not yet clear whether batteries designed for the duty cycle of the electric vehicle will prove suitable”. Usually when I hear ‘adds another layer of complexity’ is code for cost more up front. But sometimes more up front is worth it, sometimes. I guess we will find out eventually what the cost will be and how much we will each need to contribute to help keep the lights on.

What V2G Tells Us About EVs and the Grid Vehicle-to-grid technology adds another layer of complexity to the electric-vehicle transition
https://spectrum.ieee.org/what-v2g-tells-us-about-evs-and-the-grid-2657785771

#114 Jason on 08.02.22 at 12:56 pm

How much of a decline in real estate prices will we need before government intervene with longer amortizations? Or the elimination of the stress test? My guess is if we get back close to 2020 levels, we’ll see these steps.

#115 Captain Obvious on 08.02.22 at 1:05 pm

Good day passengers, this your captain.

Just on final approach on a beautiful night and reading greater fool.

I hope to finish today’s post and comments and get my landing gear out before touchdown.

Ensure your seatbelts are on.

Thank you for flying WTF airlines.

#116 Wrk.dover on 08.02.22 at 1:15 pm

Saskatchewan is laden with little 500 peep towns an hour or so in every direction out of Saskatoon and Regina. We spent a month in the entire area, drifting around once, got as far north as Prince Albert, even stayed a night at Emma Lake. Vacant houses or store fronts can be taken over with a good intentioned story handed to the town fathers to this day, is my guess. Not as buggy as hwy 11, and the cars don’t rot.

That would suit the friendly Tasmanian feller.

New Brunswick would turn bi-polar tendencies into full blown suffering.

IH, you need to get out in the world and see what your talk is about. Arm chair generalization is not going to cut it in the long run. The hourly cost of operating a self owned a float plane is, unfathomable.

My guess is you will retire within a one hour drive of your grand children. That’s what people do. (Unless the spawn brain drains to the USA.)

#117 IHCTD9 on 08.02.22 at 1:25 pm

#108 crowdedelevatorfartz on 08.02.22 at 12:23 pm
@#105 IHCTD9
“A bud here is going to a northern fishing Lodge in BC at the end of the month. North of Prince Rupert. ”
++
One of my workers is a licensed fishing guide.
His back can’t take the constant pounding of being in a small boat day after day.
So 2 weeks every summer he takes a “vacation” from our company and goes up to one of several Fishing Lodges that pay him huge money to guide rich people.
He’s guided billionaire owners of NFL football teams. US politicians, you name it.
And he always comes back loaded with fish for us sorry sad sacks grinding away in the city.
He’s up there now.
Getting me some fish.
:)
_____

The whole business sure sounds like a cash geyser – they fly you in, the lodge apparently floats on the water. But, 40 lb Salmon and 150 lb Halibut! They take you thru where you might see whales and Grizzlies too. Show up with your wallet and they do everything ese. 14 dudes are going for 3-4 days and it’s like 70 grand. I don’t think that includes the flight out to BC either.

It’s a bucket list thing though – I’d pay 5K for a week of that kind of fishing in that kind of location no problemo, beats the hell out of laying on a beach somewhere.

Halibut is probably my favourite fish to eat, and Salmon is #2. You guys got it great out in BC on the fish front, that is for sure.

#118 Re:IHCTD9 on 08.02.22 at 1:36 pm

True story, but I still went to the city – even though I had the mill job that in the 90s was paying me 24.50 per hour, whereas some of my friends stayed small with family, worked the same word of mouth job and did way better than me. I made way more money and became way more educated but housing in Vancouver was the primary thing that kept me in debt. and further behind. I am okay with my experience but would not recommend it at present day.

A bad day fishing is always better than a good day at work.

Grew up fishing the rivers and lakes before moving to Vancouver to get school degrees and made a few million over 15 years. Never made enough to live like I did growing up but also came from nothing and didn’t do too bad I guess.

Cashed out of Vancouver and got back to what matters – peaceful fishing on beautiful lakes and rivers where you do not see many people.

The Island is great for salmon and halibut and Kootenay Lake is awesome for giant bull trout and huge gerrard rainbows.

I bought for 490 just north of town and have beachfront on the lake where I pull my fishing boat up. No fancy lift or marina. Just a nice sandy beach and crystal clear water 100ft from my humble little house. Obviously not everyone can do this as there is not much economic activity – and that is exactly what I was searching for.

The only thing I can’t get back is the time lost in getting to this point as well as close people who are now just a memory. I carry a picture of my dog who I wish could have experienced this area – he loved to swim and bird watching – but the water around Vancouver is pretty polluted – sometimes lots of foam and warnings not to go in water due to high levels of bacteria. He was my favourite. Enjoy the journey and cherish time even if you are not where you want to be right now and prioritize what is most important. Live with no regrets.

#119 TheDood on 08.02.22 at 1:43 pm

#30 Quintilian on 08.01.22 at 3:35 pm

I would also add that suddenly “the shortage of supply” myth will soon be dispelled, along with the thousands and thousands of rich immigrants will save the market fantasy.

_______________________

These have already been dispelled.

Those narratives – not enough land, supply shortage, rich immigrants, etc. – are known and understood by people who have the intelligence to question a ‘mainstream’ narrative. Unfortunately for the dumb sheep/lemming masses, it will take a big drop in market prices (sledgehammer) to communicate the same message.

#120 IHCTD9 on 08.02.22 at 1:52 pm

#110 Dragonfly58 on 08.02.22 at 12:30 pm
Hi TD, I am not a fishing guy at all. But I have heard the remote camps are a great experience for those that are. But seriously expensive.
B.C. is a big , rugged, mostly empty place.
I am a old car guy. 99% of my focus. That hobby gets more and more costly every year. If you don’t have direct access to the U.S.A. for picking up parts, attending events etc. you are dead in the water unless you have a ton of $. I don’t. Options become limited fast. All my old car friends in Washington State and Oregon think we are just plain nuts to live in Canada.
Lowish incomes, highish taxes, play money dollar, cost of living bordering on the absurd. At times I can’t help but agree.
___

I think of BC and I snap right to the fish, the wild life, the scenery – and totally forget about the lack of sun, lack of distinct seasons, and endless rain. So I do suffer from rose coloured glasses a bit. I’d probably still give it a shot though :)

I was a car guy too, but started selling it all off around 07. I’ve totally lost interest in fast cars at this point (I was into straight line drag cars).

#121 TheDood on 08.02.22 at 1:53 pm

#114 Jason on 08.02.22 at 12:56 pm
How much of a decline in real estate prices will we need before government intervene with longer amortizations? Or the elimination of the stress test? My guess is if we get back close to 2020 levels, we’ll see these steps.
____________________

Huh? Longer amortizations? Eliminate the stress test?
My guess is that government is not going to touch real estate. Why would they? No one can predict what’s going to happen (except we all know it’s going down), and if they get it wrong, they’ll be pulling the rug out from underneath themselves. Rising interest rates will take care of RE, the chips will fall where they may.

Why would anyone want those controls gone anyways? They’re designed to protect the lenders and help the financially ignorant. Removing them will only make a bad problem even worse.

#122 Stone on 08.02.22 at 2:24 pm

#93 Penny Henny on 08.02.22 at 9:31 am
#75 Stone on 08.01.22 at 7:41 pm
#69 Penny Henny on 08.01.22 at 6:59 pm

I congratulate you on your positive return. You deserve a good year. I think this is the first year since I started reading this blog in 2016 that you actually have had a better year than myself.

//////////////////

From Nov 2013 to date (my investing start date).
Personal rate of return annualized 12.69%.

I certainly started out balanced and diversified like you but decided some things weren’t working and made changes.
I held a decent position in XGD for a while and got lucky.
March 2020 was a 30% smackdown, didn’t sell and squeaked out the year +3.7%.
I made some bad choices too, but once again I was lucky that my bad choices were for smallish positions.
All I’m saying is there are different investment portfolios for different people in different positions. What works for you is not for everyone.
Good on you for posting your portfolio on line.

———

I can totally respect that. Everyone invests differently and that’s ok. If someone comes along and can show their way works better and is more consistent, less stressful and profitable than mine, I’m all in to learn from that.

#123 crowdedelevatorfartz on 08.02.22 at 3:20 pm

@#117 IHCTD9
“It’s a bucket list thing though – I’d pay 5K for a week of that kind of fishing in that kind of location no problemo, beats the hell out of laying on a beach somewhere.”
+++
Yeah.
I helped a buddy out about 10 years ago with a paint and wall paper job at a Lodge up in the Queen Charlottes.
We were flown by helicopter in just before the season started to revamp 30 cabins/rooms.
The owner flew in to see how things were going.
We had a great time.
2 weeks of 1/2 work days then we played in the afternoons..
Didnt get any fishing done buy had a blast driving all over hells half acre in crew trucks.
We were going to go back up the next season on the owners dime but he dropped dead of a massive heart attack 2 months before we we scheduled to go.
C’est la vie.

#124 BCr on 08.02.22 at 4:38 pm

What your views on Chinese type indexes these days (XEC and such)? My weighting is off, too light on that stuff, and it’s taken quite a tumble in the last 2 years. I know you say, “never bet against the US”, but would buying into China now (to rebalance) would be something you’d advise against?

#125 DON on 08.02.22 at 10:42 pm

https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2022/aug/01/australian-property-prices-tumble-at-rates-not-seen-since-gfc

#126 Bronskyoff on 08.03.22 at 9:37 am

WW3 is nigh…scary stuff
https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/world-news/russia-vows-fight-china-goes-27645930