The downside

So the CBC guys did show up, driving a long distance to find me in my latest heritage hermitage. The tourists and perplexed locals (plus a horse) observed the technological wonder of a double-ender. The world once again is consumed with real estate (as if the obsession ever ended).

The interview happened as RBC threw in the towel and declared we’re in the throes of a “historic” correction in property values. To the bankers that means a plop of something between 12% and 17%, nationally. In other words, $130,000 shaved off the value of an average property in Anyplace.

Of course, as mentioned here, suburban and hick city Bunnypatch is already off more than 20% (and likely on its way to 40% – I’m talking about you, Woodstock ON). In Toronto, average detached sales prices have declined 22% and now sit lower than levels of one year ago. Add in LTT, property tax, financing and routine ownership costs (plus inflation) and somebody who bought a year or six months ago is whacked.

Well, just to be accurate about the tumble taking place, let’s use the nation’s biggest market (six million people in the mega-GTA) as our barometer. Here’s the latest, straight from the snout of the real estate board:

Click to enlarge. Source: Metroland, Toronto Regional Real Estate Board.

Detached home prices, as you can see, have given up between 10% and almost 40% of their value since February. So is this the bottom? As this very blog argued yesterday, there is some evidence inflation may be peaking and central banks will be less aggressive than contemplated a week or two ago. Yes, the prime is going up again in September and there’s a lot of damage being done to people with variable-rate mortgages, who’ll be renewing with payments about 40% higher. But five-year mortgages could well stay between 5% and 6% for a while. Maybe years.

This week the Fed hikes. The odds are just under 80% that the benchmark US rate will go up 75 beeps. Not 1% as we thought ten days ago. Stock markets have soothed considerably, and everyone’s waiting for more earnings results. But the air of frenzy and flux seems to be abating. A little.

Having said that, this situation is far more supportive of equities and financial assets than real estate. House prices in Canada have not declined meaningfully enough to compensate for higher mortgage rates. The kiddos still can’t buy unless than make over $200,000 a year. So either the property market freezes over, or sellers start taking less.

That’s starting to happen. This chart by analyst Scott Ingram shows price reductions have hit the same level as during the worst days of Covid. It’s just the start.

So what did the CBC guys want to know for their National piece to run later this week?

The usual. How bad is this? How far can things fall? How long will it last? What’s the advice for buyers and sellers?

All good questions. Canadians have gambled on a single asset class more than most people on the planet. Meanwhile real estate is rolling over everywhere, from the US to China. Over 90 CBs around the globe are hiking rates to counter inflation, and they’ll ultimately win that battle. Betting against them is futile.

So the best prediction is rates will rose again once or twice by the end of 2022. The economy may or may not be in recession, but it will be mild since we have robust employment and high pent-up consumer demand. There is zero reason to believe the Bank of Canada will hike its key rate now to battle high prices, then drop it again in a few months while inflation is still double or triple its target. Not happenin’, kids.

So there’s more downside for prices, and the wave needs to spready outwards to Halifax and Victoria.  It will. RBC is being conservative (as you would expect) but it’s also in the biz of lending mortgage bucks.

Seller strategy? Get out now or wait three years. Your choice. Buyers? Don’t be in a hurry. Shop around. Write an offer conditional on home inspection and financing. Go in low, but avoid insult. If the house you want doesn’t work out, another five will soon come on stream. Relax and enjoy. You have the power now.

By the way, here’s the Corp in action.

About the (dog) picture: “Hi Garth. I took this image,” writes Jim, “on a beach in New Zealand. This fellow walked right past me and laid down on the cool sand. An attitude I think we could all benefit from these days.”

128 comments ↓

#1 TurnerNation on 07.25.22 at 4:04 pm

For the Schlock Pickers my top pix since last week are CN Rail and CP Rail. I suspect they also are Shawn-approved items.
These, tend to move a bit along side the price of oil price, too.

#2 Garth vs. 45 on 07.25.22 at 4:07 pm

45 mentioned stagflation and if things don’t turn around the US is headed for a depression.
He also mentioned they are going to be bringing masking back.

Is Canada on the same trajectory?

#3 crowdedelevatorfartz on 07.25.22 at 4:13 pm

What province is that CBC pic Garth?
Ontario or N.S. ?

#4 Johnny Debt on 07.25.22 at 4:13 pm

You see?

We know all along that they were doing to pump pump pump!

Supply was short, so few units sold at high prices.

Low volume, but high prices for a short period.

Now they are counting backwards form that moment and declaring epic meltdowns.

Meanwhile, these rollbacks…are they even to Dec 2019 price levels? Levels that were already bloody out of whack?

Meanwhile…the pile of debt magically grows and grows.

Stupid fools talking about debt like it’s a bad thing.

Borrow all they will give you!

Not like the bank will cut a finger off if you don’t give them back their money.

#5 Journeyman on 07.25.22 at 4:18 pm

Garth is this legal?
Home buyers with Haven Developments have been slapped with unexpected closing fees of up to $170,000 only two days before the closing deadline. Residents tell Mark McAllister they’ve been left to scramble for answers and more money.
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=8h47LVwoZws

#6 Doug t on 07.25.22 at 4:21 pm

Niagara on the Lake ?

#7 yorkville renter on 07.25.22 at 4:22 pm

This coaster only started going down the big hill… lots more damage to come in the next 18-24 months

#8 tbone on 07.25.22 at 4:23 pm

Houses in Etobicoke get re-listed with a new lower price
on a regular basis now. They used to get snapped up over ask within a week .
Now realtors drop the price bigly and advertise the sell price as over ask . These guys should be arrested .

#9 Freda on 07.25.22 at 4:24 pm

It is about time real estate gets a real big cut, 50% should be the minimum. If you think about 50% cut to prices is really equal to a 100% gain. A $1,000,000 house cut by 50% today is after worth $500,000. It took a 100% increase or $500,000 to reach the $1,000,000 market value. So many places today with 25% to 30% price declines are really equivalent to past years gains of 50% or 60%.

#10 Underwriter on 07.25.22 at 4:27 pm

Man, Barrie has got to be the worst right now. Its so ugly around here. Like a 7 month supply and prices tanking. Guess thats what happens when you’re a half tank away from downtown.

#11 Sam on 07.25.22 at 4:30 pm

Excited to buy my first house in the bunnypatch from which to continue working from home.

#12 Dave on 07.25.22 at 4:32 pm

Is China’s real estate market and banks in big trouble?

What would the global impact be?

#13 Flop… on 07.25.22 at 4:39 pm

Flop Drops.

The bottom detached market of Vancouver I had pegged at 1.35 is edging down to 1.30 any week now.

Since mid May my tracking on here has showed 20k a week is being wiped of the bottom rung.

This one I’ll present is a unicorn but I’ll bring down the average and set the bottom bar for the next month or so.

The details…

316 Union St, Vancouver.

Asking 1.69

Assessment 1.62

Sold today for 1.2

https://www.zealty.ca/mls-R2700947/316-UNION-STREET-Vancouver-BC/

Another one in Flopville just went on the market for 1.29, choices under 1.5 are only around 30, better value to be had out in the valley still.

No visit from the CBC for me.

I still flinch every time I see Sarah MacDonald on the news, as it reminds me of the day she came around to my workplace to see if anyone would go on camera to talk about the correction back in 2017…

M48BC

#14 That Guy on 07.25.22 at 4:46 pm

Sigh, if only we could get out now Garth. Bought in 2016, thanks to some good luck + frugality we are hoping to pay off the house in Q1 of 2023. Would like to move from one small town to another, but a) have a kid coming soon and b) do not have a job in the targeted small town.
Guess it’ll be in three years rather than sooner.

#15 Eh? on 07.25.22 at 5:02 pm

New reader here. What the heck is “Bunnypatch”?

#16 Toronto Gongshow on 07.25.22 at 5:05 pm

Starving realtors tripping over each other when there is a live one in the realty office. Mortgage brokers sharpening their pencils and bankers off golfing again. The market is barely ticking over and most of the sales are going to long standing superstar realtors. The immigrants and young are in shock and so are their parents and grandparents. How could this be – the market always go up UNTIL IT DOESN’T AND CRASHES LIKE AN AIRPLANE IN A STALL PLUMMETING TO EARTH.

#17 Sail Away on 07.25.22 at 5:07 pm

A husband and wife were golfing when suddenly the wife asked,

“Honey, if I died would you get married again?”

The husband said, “No sweetie.”

The woman said, “I’m sure you would.”

So the man said, “Okay, maybe.”

Then the woman asked, “Would you let her sleep in our bed?”

And the man replied, “Ya, I guess so.”

Then the wife asked, “Would you let her use my golf clubs?”

And the husband replied, “No, she’s left-handed.”

#18 Overheardyou on 07.25.22 at 5:10 pm

This may be an impossible question but how does one determine the affordable average house price in Canada?

Since incomes are so distant from supporting the prices now, should they not fall to where incomes can actually support them?

#19 Quintilian on 07.25.22 at 5:10 pm

#13 Flop… on 07.25.22 at 4:39 pm

Hey Flop, maybe you can help, as you seem to be following the market at a micro level.

This is a head scratcher for me as I posted before.

My folks own in the SFU area, I visit them often, on my way there I see For Sale signs galore, Burnaby Westridge, on my next trip, usually a few days to a week, the signs show SOLD.

Most of those places are in the 2 to 3 million range, are they selling because the prices are dropping or????

Confused.

#20 crowdedelevatorfartz on 07.25.22 at 5:12 pm

@#7 Freda
“It is about time real estate gets a real big cut, 50% should be the minimum.”
++++

A $1.8 million dollar house in Surrey/Vancouver/Toronto needs more than a 50% haircut to make it affordable.
900k isnt chump change as rates and the cost of living rise uppa uppa uppa..
I vote for a 60 or 70 % pummeling to bring some sanity back to people.
$500-600k tops for a house.

#21 Steven Rowlandson on 07.25.22 at 5:25 pm

Well #10 I’ve been doing my best to boycott Canadian real estate to fight its crimes against humanity but I can only do so much. At least a zero has to be knocked off prices and rents before sanity has been restored and even that might not be enough.

#22 Steven Rowlandson on 07.25.22 at 5:31 pm

“This may be an impossible question but how does one determine the affordable average house price in Canada?”

Equal to or less than 3 years pay for one income at minimum wage and a 25% down payment as a maximum offer price. It is called the 3 years pay rule and it doesn’t have to be fair to real estate investors and the having a home is a privilege crowd.

#23 crowdedelevatorfartz on 07.25.22 at 5:32 pm

@#19 Qnfused Quinty
“Most of those places are in the 2 to 3 million range, are they selling because the prices are dropping or????
+++

North Burnaby high school students consistently rank as some of the top in the Province.
There are some parents that will spend anything to give their kids the best chance at success.

And there are greaterfools.

#24 DON on 07.25.22 at 5:37 pm

#11 Sam on 07.25.22 at 4:30 pm
Excited to buy my first house in the bunnypatch from which to continue working from home.

********

What happens if you have to change jobs gor whatever reason and they don’t offer work from home? Is that a consideration?

#25 earthboundmisfit on 07.25.22 at 5:40 pm

Did a certain someone discover that Bluenosers are, after the last two years, no longer friendly and welcoming to come-from-aways? I’ve heard recently it’s a “thing”.

#26 Flop… on 07.25.22 at 5:41 pm

#19 Quintilian on 07.25.22 at 5:10 pm
#13 Flop… on 07.25.22 at 4:39 pm
Hey Flop, maybe you can help, as you seem to be following the market at a micro level.
This is a head scratcher for me as I posted before.
My folks own in the SFU area, I visit them often, on my way there I see For Sale signs galore, Burnaby Westridge, on my next trip, usually a few days to a week, the signs show SOLD.
Most of those places are in the 2 to 3 million range, are they selling because the prices are dropping or????
Confused.

/////////////////////////////////

Don’t fret little buddy, Mr Flop is here to try and show you a couple of things.

Burnaby, overall as a city is slowly drifting down, I have the bottom of the detached currently pegged at 1.15, but the area you’re talking about is a whole different kettle of fish.

https://www.zolo.ca/burnaby-real-estate/westridge-bn

In the area you mentioned there are only 5 detached listings to choose from, and yes, 3 of them are over 2.5 million.

Lack of inventory, combined with apparent desire to live there, of the 35 neighborhoods in Burnaby listed on Zolo, Westridge is currently ranked number 5 on the hottest neighborhood chart.

It’s average sales price (2.4)is only second to Deer Lake area (2.8)in terms of being most expensive , so it’s popular, coveted, and not much to choose from, 75% of sales are done in under 10 days, so if buyers see something they like, they better get their skates on.

Maybe try and convince your parents they can still get next to top dollar next time you’re over for a visit.

Always goes over well when I visit my In-Laws…

M48BC

#27 Just Breath on 07.25.22 at 5:42 pm

As a resident of actual ‘Bunnypatch’ I always seek out my town name in Garth’s daily posting.
Like I waited for the Romper Room lady to say my name when looking through her magic mirror. (Only elderly readers will catch that ref)

We are buyers – but in no hurry and will take the good advice given.

#28 ElGatoNeroYVR on 07.25.22 at 5:42 pm

#15 Eh? on 07.25.22 at 5:02 pm
New reader here. What the heck is “Bunnypatch”?
===============
Imagination and familiarity with spell checker errors are requirements on this blog .
Letˋs start at the fact that the spell checker if one is in hurry and miss spells ” the boonies” will change it to ….you might have guessed already the bunnies and from there to bunny patch it is but a short leap of creative writing.

#29 willworkforpickles on 07.25.22 at 5:43 pm

BANNED (Abusive)

#30 Mean? on 07.25.22 at 5:44 pm

What does Reversion to the Mean look like now?

Does anyone with data have the ability to show us what that graph would look like now? I would love to see it and know the actual %drop it would take to bring our real estate market back in line to historical norms.

#31 crowdedelevatorfartz on 07.25.22 at 5:50 pm

@#15 Eh?
“New reader here. What the heck is “Bunnypatch”?”
+++
Its a place where bumpkins named Ponzie live.
Everyone else avoids Bunnypatch if they can afford to live in the city.

#32 ElGatoNeroYVR on 07.25.22 at 5:53 pm

#20 crowdedelevatorfartz on 07.25.22 at 5:12 pm
==========
I am not disagreeing with the sentiment here ,but 6 year ago at the end of the last hoorah in the market a Surrey House was 1 mil give or take. Same exact house sold at the latest top a few months ago for 1.7 mil (assesment 1.5x mil).
Do you honestly really think it will go down again even to 1 mil when real inflation was / is what it is ?
Even if you go with 3% average inflation that would still be in 1.2 mil neighbourhood.
It would be nice to see them coming down even to the 1.2 mil I would say ,just doubt it will happen.
In other news an old Burnaby duplex we were keeping an eye on sold super extra quick for a cool 1.8 mil. Location ,location ,location.
Back to watching Brentwood condos.

#33 Senator Bluto on 07.25.22 at 6:01 pm

I wouldn’t worry about slipping into a recession. Joe Biden has just re-written the definition of a recession, so it impossible for him to be blamed for a recession.

Good news; no recession.

Bad news; without a recession interest rates will keep on climbing, so everyone is screwed.

Are there any words left that actually mean what they used to mean before Biden was elected??

#34 Jer on 07.25.22 at 6:02 pm

I guess that is why Freda said minimum 50% decline in real estate prices, market values as with real estate location, location, location. Vancouver, Victoria, other places in Canada with the highest real estate prices would need to be cut to $700,000 or less from $1.80 million house in that example give from crowdedelevatorfartz.

#35 OK, Doomer on 07.25.22 at 6:09 pm

From Twitter:

Seth Mandel
@SethAMandel

It’s not a recession unless it’s from the Recession region of France otherwise it’s just sparkling misery

#36 James on 07.25.22 at 6:09 pm

Garth – Pepe has apologized!

Why can you not forgive him?

(Oh, wait,, it’s “Pope” – my goddamned spelling….sigh…)

#37 VanIslander on 07.25.22 at 6:13 pm

My 7 coworkers are long term home owners and are all calling for at least a 25% decline for Victoria. A few of us all remember the early 80’s and how it was a slow drip to start then just kept on going down for the next two years. That was even after they dropped rates 5% from the peak from 20 to 15%.

Price reductions are a daily occurrence here and in multiples on most days. Of course there’s the popular agents who live in dream land posting on a highway billboard “what slow market? 3 homes sold in 8 days” and other similar crap.

There are some honest agents who get it and advise you to wait. 25% to 40% is well worth waiting on the sidelines til next summer for my retirement home.

#38 Dina on 07.25.22 at 6:16 pm

If we see 7% or higher mortgage rates 50% to 60% price declines in real estate is quite possible coming in the next 6 to 9 months. It just took 25 years for this to happen which is really ridiculous. There should be at least 10%+ declines in real estate at least every 7 to 8 years.

I have rented all my life in a decent condo 2 bedroom, apartment 900 square feet, nice location but now I am in a condo 1,200 square feet, better location over the last 22 years I also saved alot, maxed out my RRSPs, TFSAs, non-registered with a mix of 20% in GICs, 25% in REITs, 30% in bank, other financial, insurance stocks, ETFs, 10% in oil, gas other energy sector stocks, ETFs, 5% cash, 10% in bonds mostly provincial, some higher quality corporate. I started at 23 with only $18,000 in savings and now at 45 have $925,000 with no debt. Also, saving on average 25% of my gross income on average, reinvesting my yearly RRSP tax refund added alot and my TFSA helped alot too.

#39 Inflation again on 07.25.22 at 6:18 pm

Take a look at those Feb 22 average prices, Stouffville 1.97m, Vaughan 2.2m, Bradford 1.5M, Ajax 1.45, Brampton 1.6M, Auroa 1.96M, Adjala 1.74M, East Gwillimbury 1.7M, crazy you can buy cheaper houses in Beverly Hills. Garth you said or wait 3 years, you think in three years these prices will reach that level again, I disagree if it does a lot of young people will be in a depression if that happens, most of these prices would need to take a 50-60% haircut to be even realistic. Look at Walmart stock after hours today or how about At & T or Verizon with customers not paying on time or at all.

#40 The General on 07.25.22 at 6:22 pm

1 of every 6 German industrial companies feels forced to reduce production due to high energy prices, a survey by the Association of German Chambers of Industry and Commerce, DIHK showed on Monday.
With gas supply from Russia reduced and prices of NON-Russian gas and electricity soaring in Germany and Europe, German companies are struggling.
DIHK president Peter Adrian said “these numbers are alarming”.
For years, new oil and gas ⛽ field development and pipeline construction projects across Africa have suffered setbacks because of western banks and governments’ unwillingness to fund new hydrocarbon projects as the crusade on carbon emissions gathered pace.
Now, that same Europe is asking for gas. The worms have turned. Greta is not amused.

#41 Jim Toiler on 07.25.22 at 6:30 pm

“Go in low, but avoid insult.” why avoid insult, the last few years sellers have sent massive amounts of buyers into unmanageable debt and servitude. avoid insult.pfftt

Because people don’t sell to pricks and vultures. – Garth

#42 Km on 07.25.22 at 6:34 pm

Has anyone seen what rents are skyrocketing to in LM? In our building an old 4 level wood building a one bedroom is listed at 3k. No amenities other than three shared washer dryers that are always broken and cost $2 each use. Last year a one bedroom was $2300.

#43 Albertan Laid off on 07.25.22 at 6:40 pm

Let the real estate industry collapse!

Trudeau and his globalist plan to decimate Alberta’s oil industry is hurting me anyways. We have 200 billion barrels or more of bitumen crude that we can easily export to the USA.

Instead, we import Saudi oil while Trudeau announces that he is a feminist advocate.

#44 Steve French on 07.25.22 at 6:41 pm

If only Smoking Man were alive to see this day….

CBC could have interviewed him after Garth about the state of the property market at Schlong Branch.

– Sincerely,

Smoking Man’s 4th biggest fan,

#45 Concerned Citizen on 07.25.22 at 6:47 pm

For those who think the consumer is strong, check out Walmart’s results today.

Wages are not keeping up with the inflation rate. And when you realize the official inflation rate isn’t a good reflection of actual inflation for many people – for whom rent and food constitute higher percentages of their basket, both of which are inflating at double digits – and it’s downright ugly out there.

Full employment sounds great in theory, but if so much of that employment is leading to declining standard of living then it’s not much to write home about.

Check out the airport while you’re at it. Our standard of living is just fine. – Garth

#46 NOSTRADAMUS on 07.25.22 at 6:55 pm

THE RUNWAY IS GETTING SHORTER.
I am now hearing some alarming chatter among Real Estate Broker owners about the length of their “runway,” meaning how much time they have before they run out of money to keep the lights on. They are scrambling to cut expenses in order to lengthen their runway. Support staff are always the first to go. Next up on the chopping block, advertising expenses, because that’s the easiest to cut. The sellers under contract will find this a tough pill to swallow, especially with the high commission rate. Mmmm, tough selling a house with no advertisement. Eventually the whole show down shifts into low gear. When the real estate companies run out of money they vanish and their agents go somewhere else to park their license. I will be looking for a number of news announcements to the effect , “ABC REALTY” is excited to announce that “Bob” your friendly realtor has joined ABC REALTY. Historically, (1989) shows that with no cash flow, real estate companies problems can turn into a full blown crisis, with liquidity problems turning into solvency issues. Are you not entertained?

#47 Doug t on 07.25.22 at 6:57 pm

#20 fartz

Yeah man bring on 60 to 70 % = KABOOM

#48 Too Much Inventory! on 07.25.22 at 7:17 pm

Walmart will cut prices to sell off overstock.

Apple is doing a 4-day promo on all items in China due to…overstock.

Amazon is expected to report lower revenue growth.

Maybe all those containers stuck at ports were just overstock that warehouses and retailers were not selling and thus not able to take delivery of? Maybe those shortages were fluff intended to fend of deflationary pressures?

#49 Quintilian on 07.25.22 at 7:22 pm

#26 Flop… on 07.25.22 at 5:41 pm

Thanks Flop, I was starting to succumb to my paranoia, almost to the point of subscribing to conspiracy theories and money laundering activity.

#50 crowdedelevatorfartz on 07.25.22 at 7:29 pm

@#32 ElGato
“6 year ago at the end of the last hoorah in the market a Surrey House was 1 mil give or take. Same exact house sold at the latest top a few months ago for 1.7 mil (assesment 1.5x mil).”
+++
I think we’re in a whole new level of pain.
Think early 80’s and it’s multi year downtown.
Houses that sold for 240k in 1981 were lucky to find a buyer in 1984 for 80k.
And personal dabt and govt debt was nowhere near what it is today.

#51 Neo on 07.25.22 at 7:36 pm

Go in low, but avoid insult.

Are you serious? Watching Canada sold off the last 10 years has been an insult to my intelligence. The average home is worth 3-4 times the average family income.

Im going in at 3x and asking why there is a worthless parasite relator between me and the seller.

Government corruption perhaps?

#52 Winston Smith on 07.25.22 at 7:41 pm

Ministry of Truth
Ministry of Love
Ministry of Plenty
Ministry of Housing

#53 Honey Bunny on 07.25.22 at 7:50 pm

So…how long did Garth last out there in NS before he missed PATH? Pandemic + 1…year?

Oh…I’ll never forget the day. Back in my corporate life the CEO from France was visiting the Canadian Subsidiary I oversaw.

He had heard about the 30km of PATH and thought it was some amazing purpose build retail shopping Mecca not a maze of underground tunnels connecting basements of buildings to a mall or two so that you don’t have to freeze your ears.

Anyhow, the disappointment on his face was clear. I can still hear his disapproving French accent say “That’s it?” I guess he was expecting Paris or New York type of retail effort, not underground hallways.

#54 Dragonfly58 on 07.25.22 at 8:13 pm

No doubt whatsoever a segment of Canada’s population continues to enjoy a relatively high standard of living.
Equally no doubt however there is a segment that are finding things increasingly tough. For some very tough. If you are in the club, say the top 25% of Canadian earnings , things have never been better.
Lots of us are not in that club. And little chance for many / most not already in it to join.

#55 IHCTD9 on 07.25.22 at 8:15 pm

#108 Sail Away on 07.25.22 at 1:30 pm

Yes, fewer and fewer people are getting off the beaten track. It’s fantastic for those of us who hunt and fish remotely. A few years ago, we did a week-long hike into Yellowstone’s Black Canyon during the height of the tourist season, and were the only campers in a few of the sites. The backcountry Rangers said the number of people outside of wifi is almost zero these days.

Insane trout fishing in the Yellowstone River, btw. 4-5 lb cutthroat and rainbows are common. You’re actually required to kill all rainbow trout since they’re introduced and outcompete the native cutthroat. So bring a stove for trout fries on the bank!
—————-

I’ve been feeling there are a lot less peeps out there fishing. My area is an angling Mecca in Ontario, back in the 80’s you could walk across the river on all the boats out there when the derby was on. There are at least 75% less boats these days.

I agree it’s great for us angling folk though! One of my bros is out at Killbear right now. Every morning he’s pulling in Lakers and Kings one after the other, all between 22-28” long. The all time record for Great Lakes Kings was broken again just last year. The records don’t sit for decades, they keep getting bigger. At least for Kings.

That’s weird about killing all the rainbows. Kings are “invasive” in the Great Lakes, but we’re only allowed to kill 2 (per day)! Shame to kill off a rainbow, they are beautiful fish.

#56 Victor Llearna on 07.25.22 at 8:19 pm

SHeep are learning that real estate doesn’t always go up. Even in year 2010 houses in toronto were way overpriced for this horrible city

#57 45north on 07.25.22 at 8:23 pm

Canadians have gambled on a single asset class more than most people on the planet. Meanwhile real estate is rolling over everywhere, from the US to China.

looking at the chart “GTA Average Price Change – Detached Homes”, it doesn’t matter where you look prices are down. If you’ve gambled on a house, it’s where it is and it’s down.

#58 Where's My Money Going Greedope? WEF/Plane fare on 07.25.22 at 8:31 pm

So the Pope says nothing about the Doctrine Of Discovery, which is the basis of how Canada came under British rule.
Not gonna happen, because that makes Canada under British rule ILLEGAL.
As far back as the 15th century the Vatican used this Doctrine to force obedience and take over countries by force.
https://www.law.cornell.edu/wex/doctrine_of_discovery

#59 marnic on 07.25.22 at 8:49 pm

Just a heads-up, Garth…at least a couple of those percentages in the TREB are inaccurate (check in Simcoe County), but the general trend is pretty clear.

#60 Garth's Mentor on 07.25.22 at 8:52 pm

Add vehicles to this…

New and used vehicle prices are going to fall off a cliff in 6 months with these higher rates.

Unless you need a vehicle now, wait 6 months. With nobody buying vehicles, the vehicle supply chain will magically be fixed.

#61 DON on 07.25.22 at 9:04 pm

#37 VanIslander on 07.25.22 at 6:13 pm
My 7 coworkers are long term home owners and are all calling for at least a 25% decline for Victoria. A few of us all remember the early 80’s and how it was a slow drip to start then just kept on going down for the next two years. That was even after they dropped rates 5% from the peak from 20 to 15%.

Price reductions are a daily occurrence here and in multiples on most days. Of course there’s the popular agents who live in dream land posting on a highway billboard “what slow market? 3 homes sold in 8 days” and other similar crap.

There are some honest agents who get it and advise you to wait. 25% to 40% is well worth waiting on the sidelines til next summer for my retirement home.

*****
Going into Lake Cowichan and then to Gordon Bay there are 3 seperate 4ft by 8 ft realtor signs…big personal pictures and slogans. At first glance I thought they were election signs, but no current elections. Am I buying a house or a superstar realtor? I wonder if they got permission to do that right on the side of the highway?

#62 Rent Analysis on 07.25.22 at 9:07 pm

Rents are not going down.

Rents are going up.

But how can that happen???????

Ahhhh

Over-leveraged investors who own most of the rental stock (including mom and pop landlords and broke owners resorting to sharing their place for extra income) need more money to cover their costs.

The only thing that will bring the rent cost back down to earth is when people stop showing up to rent.

The problem is, everyone needs a place to live and there are not enough rentals. BC needs 400,000 more units. So, renters are either going to become homeless or post the additional rent money. And both will happen with some able to keep a roof and some looking to setup under a bridge.

$3,000 dollar per month is becoming the norm across the entire province of BC. $1,200 for a shared room.

This outcome is so obvious when every owner is mortgaged to the gills. The cost of money going up has the borrower passing it on to the renter. This is going to get worse, not better, until rates moderate and or drop again. And according to Garth and anyone who understands markets – rates dropping ain’t happening anytime soon. They could moderate and drop a bit in 2023 but will remain elevated in the 5% range.

This is why I have advised anyone who can afford it to buy and hedge against this type of inflation.

Renting is far cheaper than owning. – Garth

#63 wallflower on 07.25.22 at 9:15 pm

#8 tbone on 07.25.22 at 4:23 pm
Houses in Etobicoke get re-listed with a new lower price
on a regular basis now. They used to get snapped up over ask within a week .

SAME THING HAPPENING WITH RENTALS (CONDO) IN MY SOUTHERN ONTARIOWE CITY. DOMs going into four months in many cases.
(Crazy, right? Relist to eradicate DOM at newer/lower price on a rental.)
Canary?

#64 Stone on 07.25.22 at 9:21 pm

#41 Jim Toiler on 07.25.22 at 6:30 pm
“Go in low, but avoid insult.” why avoid insult, the last few years sellers have sent massive amounts of buyers into unmanageable debt and servitude. avoid insult.pfftt

Because people don’t sell to pricks and vultures. – Garth

———

That may be the case right now, Garth. It may change in the future.

My friend bought a boat (well, it’s actually a very nice yacht – one of the biggest in the marina) about 4-5 years back for $75k. The actual market value at the time was $145k. The seller was offended at their offer. My friend just told the seller to give them a call if ever they changed their mind.

A couple weeks later, the seller called back trying to push the price up. My friend told him that was all the money they had. Take it or leave it.

The seller swore at my friend like swearing was going out of style. Ultimately, my friend kept her cool and the boat transferred ownership at the price originally offered.

There’s always a time to vultch. It all depends how desperate the seller is.

My friend doesn’t mind being called a prick. Her family really enjoys that yacht…and so have I.

She’s so proud that she got a bargain.

#65 Ballingsford on 07.25.22 at 9:28 pm

Harper just endorsed Pepe!

#66 DON on 07.25.22 at 9:34 pm

#62 Rent Analysis on 07.25.22 at 9:07 pm
Rents are not going down.

Rents are going up.

But how can that happen???????

Ahhhh

Over-leveraged investors who own most of the rental stock (including mom and pop landlords and broke owners resorting to sharing their place for extra income) need more money to cover their costs.

The only thing that will bring the rent cost back down to earth is when people stop showing up to rent.

The problem is, everyone needs a place to live and there are not enough rentals. BC needs 400,000 more units. So, renters are either going to become homeless or post the additional rent money. And both will happen with some able to keep a roof and some looking to setup under a bridge.

$3,000 dollar per month is becoming the norm across the entire province of BC. $1,200 for a shared room.

This outcome is so obvious when every owner is mortgaged to the gills. The cost of money going up has the borrower passing it on to the renter. This is going to get worse, not better, until rates moderate and or drop again. And according to Garth and anyone who understands markets – rates dropping ain’t happening anytime soon. They could moderate and drop a bit in 2023 but will remain elevated in the 5% range.

This is why I have advised anyone who can afford it to buy and hedge against this type of inflation.

Renting is far cheaper than owning. – Garth

*********

Or current over leveraged lanlords may be force to sell to another investor but at a much lower price, who will then need less rent to cover costs.

#67 Warren-the-lagging_indicator on 07.25.22 at 9:35 pm

Speaking of downside. The market could fall 10% from here making fools like me right but Garth would still be correct that investing in a proper B&D portfolio is the right move in the math and logic sense. Everyone can see that this is the case, right?

#68 crowdedelevatorfartz on 07.25.22 at 9:43 pm

BC police have been busy the last few days.

Double homicide in Whistler on the front steps of a hotel.
Double homicide in Chilliwack.
Multiple homicide in Langley.
Police shooting in Nanaimo.

#69 Sail Away on 07.25.22 at 9:48 pm

#55 IHCTD9 on 07.25.22 at 8:15 pm

I agree it’s great for us angling folk though! One of my bros is out at Killbear right now. Every morning he’s pulling in Lakers and Kings one after the other, all between 22-28” long. The all time record for Great Lakes Kings was broken again just last year. The records don’t sit for decades, they keep getting bigger. At least for Kings.

That’s weird about killing all the rainbows. Kings are “invasive” in the Great Lakes, but we’re only allowed to kill 2 (per day)! Shame to kill off a rainbow, they are beautiful fish.

———

Very good.

Regarding the rainbow killing in Yellowstone, it’s specific to sectors where they’re working to restore the native fish, not everywhere. Here’s a video of some Black Canyon fishing. Highly recommended trip.

https://youtu.be/kbtib0gLBkk

#70 jess on 07.25.22 at 9:56 pm

slow down and starting thinking

https://www.tvo.org/programs/faster-humanitys-quest-to-save-time

“returnless returns”

A Marketplace investigation into Amazon Canada has found that perfectly good items are being liquidated by the truckload — and even destroyed or sent to landfill. Experts say hundreds of thousands of returns don’t end up back on the e-commerce giant’s website for resale, as customers might think.Oct 13, 2020

Hidden cameras and secret trackers reveal where Amazon …

Getir, “ultra fast delivery startup founded in 2015, had recently raised $768 million in funding valuing it at $11.8 billion, ” decacorn”

#71 45north on 07.25.22 at 10:08 pm

Nostradamus I am now hearing some alarming chatter among Real Estate Broker owners about the length of their “runway,” meaning how much time they have before they run out of money to keep the lights on.

pretty funny

#72 BCWally on 07.25.22 at 10:13 pm

I’m really interested in who sent the CBC in the first place.
Maybe you can be a consultant for the next Fed finance minister without all that stress of being a politician. Obviously someone needs your financial acumen.
Shouldn’t be long, especially if Justin pulls a Dutch farming fertilizer move. Poor Ottawa, no one can stand up to a few thousand silage blowers and mountains of cow dung.
Definitely wait for the present government to leave, it will be much more rewarding (safer) later.

#73 mark on 07.25.22 at 10:19 pm

Nelson
Sold $950k Dec 21
Now want $1.275 mill
LOL
https://www.realtor.ca/real-estate/24696175/694-bridgebay-road-nelson

#74 Doug in London on 07.25.22 at 10:24 pm

It wasn’t that long ago the so called experts were telling us that the problem with housing is a lack of supply and as a result prices would keep going up forever and ever. Well, where’s this short supply if prices are dropping?

#75 The Woosh on 07.25.22 at 10:26 pm

Renting is far cheaper than owning. – Garth

————————————

CORRECTION – Renting “was” far cheaper than owning. For anyone looking to rent now, the only positive is that you can move on easily once the lease is up. Current rents are by no means cheaper. Let’s not kid ourselves.

I know math is hard, but you are dead wrong. – Garth

#76 Daveyboy on 07.25.22 at 10:35 pm

Even prices are starting to turn down in the work from home capital of Canada. LOL.

https://www.workfromhomecapitalofcanada.ca/

#77 Don on 07.25.22 at 10:38 pm

Who cares about real estate. We have bigger problems to deal with.

“The mustard shortage could lead to higher prices and empty shelves, industry warns “- CBC NEWS

My hot dog stand is gonna sink!

Man, you can’t make these up!

#78 Paul on 07.25.22 at 10:41 pm

#3 crowdedelevatorfartz on 07.25.22 at 4:13 pm
What province is that CBC pic Garth?
Ontario or N.S. ?
————————————————————————————————
I could tell you but I’m sworn to secrecy!

#79 Sail Away on 07.25.22 at 10:46 pm

#68 crowdedelevatorfartz on 07.25.22 at 9:43 pm

BC police have been busy the last few days.

Double homicide in Whistler on the front steps of a hotel.
Double homicide in Chilliwack.
Multiple homicide in Langley.
Police shooting in Nanaimo.

——–

Might be time to visit the US to get away from all this random gun violence.

#80 DON on 07.25.22 at 10:50 pm

#65 Ballingsford on 07.25.22 at 9:28 pm
Harper just endorsed Pepe!

********
Is anyone surprised?

#81 KLNR on 07.25.22 at 10:57 pm

@#41 Jim Toiler on 07.25.22 at 6:30 pm
“Go in low, but avoid insult.” why avoid insult, the last few years sellers have sent massive amounts of buyers into unmanageable debt and servitude. avoid insult.pfftt

Because people don’t sell to pricks and vultures. – Garth

just a bizarre comment.
literally nobody forces somebody to buy a house.
not even the much maligned realtor.
If you’ve got yourself into massive debt thats on you.

#82 Jane54 on 07.25.22 at 11:07 pm

I don’t know Garth as here in the Uk two months ago they said that inflation would top out at 10%. One month ago they said 12% and now banks are suggesting up to 15%. There is a lot of pain coming. House prices here are still going up slightly but then during covid they went up only 10% per year and we all thought that was amazing!

In Denmark right now visiting family. Avoid. Prices are insane. I paid $25 for 2 coffees and a bun. Nice bun though. You could do a long weekend in Berlin for a day in Copenhagen. More fun in Berlin too.

#83 The Woosh on 07.25.22 at 11:24 pm

#75 The Woosh on 07.25.22 at 10:26 pm
Renting is far cheaper than owning. – Garth

————————————

CORRECTION – Renting “was” far cheaper than owning. For anyone looking to rent now, the only positive is that you can move on easily once the lease is up. Current rents are by no means cheaper. Let’s not kid ourselves.

I know math is hard, but you are dead wrong. – Garth

———————————

Not at all. I couldn’t rent my current digs for what it costs me owning it, even taking into account all the carrying costs. Your absolutes are only universal to yourself. The rest of the universe functions in infinite shades of grey.

Prove it. – Garth

#84 crowdedelevatorfartz on 07.25.22 at 11:49 pm

@#79 Sailio
“Might be time to visit the US to get away from all this random gun violence.”
+++

True.
But since all these gun wielding thugs were most likely using illegal firearms smuggled in across the US border…..it doesnt make me feel any safer……

#85 crowdedelevatorfartz on 07.25.22 at 11:55 pm

@#81 KLNR
“iterally nobody forces somebody to buy a house.
not even the much maligned realtor.
If you’ve got yourself into massive debt thats on you.”
+++
True ,
but the endless shell game and fudging of sales/price stats by the monopoly called the Real Estate sales industry does have its advantages….

A moot argument
Because…….
Its allll about to change.
:)

#86 IanGordon on 07.26.22 at 12:05 am

Oh look the pope apologized.

There are hundreds of Canadians that were politicians and lawmakers during this time. When will they face trial for genocide?

The Canadian government financed genocide. Period!

#87 Tom from Mississauga on 07.26.22 at 1:30 am

Little birdie told me the energy file is 1st out the gate for Ford government. Ontario needs 5 natural gas fired power plants built quickly to replace ancient Pickering Nuke or have rolling blackouts downtown TO, East York, Scarborough and Pickering by 2024/5. Apparently we’re as dumb Germany.

#88 DJT on 07.26.22 at 1:31 am

If Pelosi starts a war with China to go with The Biden Families’ war in Ukraine, we will be remembering now as the ‘good times’.

#89 willworkforpickles on 07.26.22 at 2:50 am

BANNED (Abusive)

#90 under the radar on 07.26.22 at 5:01 am

Go in Low- But do your homework.
After studying the market for this specific car, no more production on these (2020- 2022) and every car sold at window sticker or over and convincing myself I needed another toy, Last week I made an offer on a 21 Shelby GT 500 significantly below asking price. Dealer had the car since Feb . Offer rejected and signed back close to ask. I left . Before I got home they called. Told the sales person he wasted my time and his. Meanwhile, I found another, which dealer had since April. Offer on the phone with a visa #, way below ask, 3 hours later, offer accepted. Original dealers manager called back again , Ok , we will take your offer. Sorry too late. I told both dealers upfront no dog and pony show, no split the difference . One offer only. Note , both dealers were not Ford dealers. I still paid more than window sticker. Will I lose money on this? – no doubt , but I can’t wipe the grin off my face every time I drive it.

#91 Sara on 07.26.22 at 5:44 am

#38 Dina, going by your numbers it looks like by the time you are 65 you could easily have $4 million and maybe as high as $4.5 million. It looks like an average 6.4% rate of return yearly and $20,000 a year put in your RRSPs, TFSAs etc.

#92 TurnerNation on 07.26.22 at 7:08 am

Nova Scotia…I can’t even. If this is true.
One need not support every lifestyle but keep it yourself sometimes.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/nova-scotia/couple-human-rights-complaint-yacht-club-1.6529083
“After that, McLeod and Nickerson say people started asking invasive questions about their mental health and questioning their military service.
“Since then, we’ve had members throwing garbage on our property and across our ditch,” McLeod said. “We had members urinating in the ditch right beside the house, we had a member that was continually bringing their dog onto our property to do its business.””

#93 Wrk.dover on 07.26.22 at 7:26 am

#90 under the radar on 07.26.22 at 5:01 am

…21 Shelby GT 500
__________________________

Good luck keeping that stunt charge enabling, high end insurance bill junkie, drivers license shredder under the radar, Sport!

I had a little big fun flogging a borrowed 68 KR 500 beater, way, way back. That car was only worth a few grand then, it was so long ago.

#94 crowdedelevatorfartz on 07.26.22 at 8:22 am

@#82 Jane54
“In Denmark right now visiting family. Avoid. Prices are insane. I paid $25 for 2 coffees and a bun.”
++++

i know what you mean about inflation.
You used to be called jane24

#95 Legal Beagle on 07.26.22 at 8:45 am

Handsome scaffolding GT! You should’ve at least rubbed some drywall dust on your hands and sleeves like hosts on HGTV do!

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/ottawa/ottawa-family-home-sale-price-market-1.6531055

#96 Bdwy on 07.26.22 at 9:09 am

My folks own in the SFU area, I visit them often, on my way there I see For Sale signs galore, Burnaby Westridge, on my next trip, usually a few days to a week, the signs show SOLD.

Most of those places are in the 2 to 3 million range, are they selling because the prices are dropping or???

…….
What flop is not mentoning…. move in ready or newer or nicer places are still very strong. Very strong. Fast sales at full prices.
Its the dogs breakfasts that are weaker. The union st example is close enough to a newer modular housing that needles could likely thrown from a junkies window directly into the backyard.

Ant non junk sfh still selling in a week or 2. See 2134 E 3rd. 5 dom 2.2m

#97 Senator Bluto on 07.26.22 at 9:17 am

Just reading about Trudeau’s newest enviro-cause, The War on Nitrogen fertilizers.

I work with a guy who does all organic grain farming. His crop yields are ONE-THIRD of farmers who use fertilizers. And he can’t use manure because manure contains all kinds of weed seeds that will trash his land because he can’t use herbicides or pesticides either. His yield would then drop to ONE-FIFTH. Massive Catch-22.

Trudeau’s Nitrogen War will turn Canada from a breadbasket to the world into a country barely able to feed itself.

Are there no grownups in Trudeau’s inner circle or are they all math challenged buffoons?

#98 Stone on 07.26.22 at 9:28 am

#94 crowdedelevatorfartz on 07.26.22 at 8:22 am
@#82 Jane54
“In Denmark right now visiting family. Avoid. Prices are insane. I paid $25 for 2 coffees and a bun.”
++++

i know what you mean about inflation.
You used to be called jane24

———

That was really funny! I had a good laugh. Thanks.

#99 Dharma Bum on 07.26.22 at 9:38 am

#15 Eh?
“New reader here. What the heck is “Bunnypatch”?”
—————————————————————————————————

It’s just up the road from Podunk, down the block from Hooterville, and a hop skip and a jump away from Boondock.

If you have a horse, you’re about a five minute ride from Schitt$ Creek.

#100 crowdedelevatorfartz on 07.26.22 at 10:01 am

@#95 Beagle

Interesting story with the Garth segway.
But my empathy for “sellers” who still earned several 100 k on a house sale whining because they “lost” $150,000 due to waiting too long after the market peaked….
They should be happy they sold for a profit.

However I noticed THIS story.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/harper-poilievre-endorsement-1.6531995

Harper saying Poilievre will win …..misses the point.

Trudeau will lose because voters are disgusted with his mandate.
Harper was voted off the island and Trudeau stepped in as a dismal alternative to Harper’s rule..

Trudeau will be voted out and Poilievre will win by default.

I dubbed it the “antivote” several years back and voter sentiment for “booting the bum out” seems stronger than ever.

Let’s hope the rumors’ are true and Trudeau’s ( or Jaggy’s) own self importance will have him calling an election this Fall.

#101 IHCTD9 on 07.26.22 at 10:22 am

#90 under the radar on 07.26.22 at 5:01 am

Last week I made an offer on a 21 Shelby GT 500
____

That is one sweet car! If previous blown Fords are any indication – it probably makes more power than advertised, and it’s a pulley and a tune away from 1000 HP without needing to upgrade the internals.

For the money though, I probably would have went with a C8 Z06. Or maybe hold out for the 2025 ZR1 – that thing is looking to be insane.

#102 crowdedelevatorfartz on 07.26.22 at 10:25 am

@#97 Bluto
“Trudeau’s Nitrogen War will turn Canada from a breadbasket to the world into a country barely able to feed itself.”

__
Sri Lanka eliminated subsidies for fertilizers used by farmers.
The country went from self sustaining food supplies to food riots in about a year.

https://foreignpolicy.com/2022/03/05/sri-lanka-organic-farming-crisis/

One wonders if Trudeau has ever had dirt under his well manicure fingernails at any time in his gold plated life.

An overnight organic farming switch …is…a….disaster.

Lets hope the fertile manure from Ottawa has life giving qualities.

#103 Those are the ones fleeing Canada and NOT COMING BA on 07.26.22 at 10:56 am

Check out the airport while you’re at it. Our standard of living is just fine. – Garth

I know 100 people, 50 families that went back to Europe, just in time to freeze next winter because of the evil dictator….drum roll……Trudeau

LMAO

#104 Tony on 07.26.22 at 11:25 am

Re: #12 Dave on 07.25.22 at 4:32 pm

Real estate contagion could spread to Canada, New Zealand, Australia and the west coast of America. The Chinese would have to sell foreign properties to cover the losses in China if things get bad enough.

#105 Sail Away on 07.26.22 at 11:44 am

#102 crowdedelevatorfartz on 07.26.22 at 10:25 am

An overnight organic farming switch …is…a….disaster.

Lets hope the fertile manure from Ottawa has life giving qualities.

———

Modern farming feeds people. There is absolutely no chance we feed 8 billion people without modern farming.

But hey, I’m a big proponent of trying things out to see what happens instead of just talking about it. Sort of the same principle as taking a deeper look at a piece of broken equipment before writing it off.

Let’s see, shall we? There will probably be results.

#106 Summertime on 07.26.22 at 11:47 am

Congrats to BoC.

Great work, boys, absolutely deserving the bonuses.

Over 1.5 mil for places where I would not live even if they pay me to.

At this point I believe that even 60-70- % down from the top will not be enough, these are insane valuations for very crappy places to live in.

4 times overpricing is my humble assessment.

Mississauga up 10 times in 20 years…. With 1 – 2 % average ‘inflation’ and people spending over 50 % of household income on housing… Wow, truly how does math work in this country…

#107 under the radar on 07.26.22 at 12:00 pm

101For the money though, I probably would have went with a C8 Z06. Or maybe hold out for the 2025 ZR1 – that thing is looking to be insane.

Been through the corvettes, I had a 2010 ZR1 and a 2016 Z06. The C8’s look terrible to my eyes.

#108 Stone on 07.26.22 at 12:23 pm

I clicked on a clickbait article title and lo and behold, there’s our favourite blog author.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/ottawa/ottawa-family-home-sale-price-market-1.6531055

Hiiiiiiiiii!!!

#109 Stone on 07.26.22 at 12:29 pm

Just to add to my my last comment above.

The couple who sold their home for $740k now need to rent one of their upstairs bedrooms out to make ends meet?

Is this actually a throuple scenario under the guise of not being able to afford the real estate they bought?

Just calling this out for what I think this really is. Lol

#110 crowdedelevatorfartz on 07.26.22 at 12:36 pm

@#104 Sailio

No harm in trying.
But I view this latest Liberal organic “fad” as the “Camels nose in the tent”.
30% reduction in Nitrogen eventually becomes 100%
I hope everyone likes the idea of paying $20 for a loaf of bread.

On a side note.
Sailios firm hired a new engineer named Cody from the Yukon?

#111 Penny Henny on 07.26.22 at 12:38 pm

Alert.
Garth sighting.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/ottawa/ottawa-family-home-sale-price-market-1.6531055

#112 jess on 07.26.22 at 1:50 pm

“Ottawa-based e-commerce company Shopify Inc. is laying off roughly 1,000 people as explosive growth in the company’s online selling business model slows.

According to regulatory filings, the company had about 10,000 employees at the end of 2021, twice the amount they had before the pandemic. The cuts amount to 10 per cent of the company’s workforce.”

======

DON on 07.25.22 at 10:50 pm
the conservatives must be desperate to have harper call in?
Ever listen to
https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/calgary/danielle-smith-ucp-leadership-cancer-controllable-dubious-1.6531883

#86 IanGordon on 07.26.22 at 12:05 am
+ disease tb small pox

money diverted …church vs state
https://pressprogress.ca/montreal-anti-abortion-activists-are-receiving-funding-from-an-ontario-based-charity-despite-cra-rules/

https://www.theguardian.com/law/2022/jul/02/us-supreme-court-religion-church-state-separation

https://www.thecanadianencyclopedia.ca/en/article/aboriginal-people-education

History of Education in Canada
https://www.thecanadianencyclopedia.ca/en/article/history-of-education

#113 Sail Away on 07.26.22 at 1:52 pm

#110 crowdedelevatorfartz on 07.26.22 at 12:36 pm
@#104 Sailio

No harm in trying.
But I view this latest Liberal organic “fad” as the “Camels nose in the tent”.
30% reduction in Nitrogen eventually becomes 100%
I hope everyone likes the idea of paying $20 for a loaf of bread.

——-

Heh. More like: dictate something woke, see how high prices go, how many people starve, or how quick the government is punted, then revert to the previous way that had developed efficiencies through a lot of trial and error over time.

The school of hard knocks is quite efficient. So… sure, go ahead and reduce fertilizer. Own it!

#114 Shawn on 07.26.22 at 1:58 pm

5 Year Canada Bond yield fizzles to 2.85%

Wowzers the Canada government bond 5 year yield is DOWN to 2.85% as I write this. That’s a sharp decline from the peak of 3.6% in mid June.

5 year mortgage rates are falling? What does a 2.85% 5 year Canada translate to in terms of a 5 year mortgage
? Ratehub shows one at 4.7%. Are there better deals out there?

Pity institutional investors who accept 2.85% on these 5 year bond that they will hold to maturity. Meanwhile all-ya-all can do quite a bit better on a GIC and certainly on pref shares.

Heck, even TD Direct is paying 2.25% on a daily interest cash account for those with funds in TD Direct discount broker / TD Waterhouse. Completely cashable on short notice. TDB8150. All the big bank discount brokers hve something similar.

Nobody buys a 5-year Canada bond for the yield. – Garth

#115 Outrage on 07.26.22 at 2:02 pm

T2 should dress up as the Green Man like you you see at the Canucks game. He’s running the country like some third world dictator that wants to destroy it. Any way ,Canadians voted him so they get what they deserve.
My coworker left for Mexico during the Covid exodus and now lives down there for under $ 600 a month. He has a small pension so he makes due with what he can . Sad times coming ,time to live within your means big time.

#116 Old Boot on 07.26.22 at 2:45 pm

“Toronto condo listing terminations up 643% since January”

Sounds like specuvestors are about to be taken to the wood shed. They’d be better off reading a little Elizabeth Kubler Ross and learning how to move from denial to acceptance, as they grieve the death of world’s greatest real estate bubble.

https://mobile.twitter.com/TorontoStar/status/1551946742211530753

#117 Shawn on 07.26.22 at 2:58 pm

Nobody buys a 5-year Canada bond for the yield. – Garth

*******************

So you have always said.

And no pension fund, insurance company, bank or even bond ETF has stepped forward to contradict you on this blog. So maybe you are right.

What I do know is an irrefutable fact is that once a 5 year bond is issued and bought, SOMEONE has gotta own it and it will never pay out more than the puny interest yield. Sold at par and matures at par.

Also I never said they buy it for yield or LIKE the low yield. I said they hold till maturity which I think is true in many cases. Yes they hold for the security and simply put up with the low yield.

I point out that regular joe investors can do better even in secure investments like a 5 year GIC and a pref share.

Giant institutions can’t buy GICs becasue 1: the deposit guarantee is only a $100k but more importantly, banks don’t want giant holders of GICs typically because they might exit all at once on maturity. They prefer a diversity of small holders.

Giant institutions even more so can’t access high interest bank deposits for the same reason. Risk of run on the bank with large holders.

But main point today, look at interest rates actually fizzle a bit once again. Tomorrow, we shall see. Maybe the 5 year rises with the FED tomorrow.

#118 PBrasseur on 07.26.22 at 2:59 pm

# 67 Speaking of downside. The market could fall 10% from here making fools like me right but Garth would still be correct that investing in a proper B&D portfolio is the right move in the math and logic sense. Everyone can see that this is the case, right?

“if all you have is a hammer, everything looks like a nail”

Abraham Maslow

#119 jess on 07.26.22 at 3:07 pm

go fraud me!

A New Jersey woman has been sentenced to prison after a federal court found her guilty of cooking up a scam that took more than US$400,000 from GoFundMe donors.

Katelyn McClure was sentenced late last week to one year and one day after pleading guilty to one count of theft by deception in the second degree, reports CNN.

Her crime dates back to 2017, when she began to raise money for a homeless veteran she claimed had given her his last $20 for gas after she was left stranded on the side of a Philadelphia interstate.

https://globalnews.ca/news/9014465/katelyn-mcclure-gofundme-scam-prison-sentence/

#120 Selka on 07.26.22 at 3:13 pm

Ukrainian Credit Union is paying 3.75% savings account for new deposits.

#121 DON on 07.26.22 at 3:16 pm

#111 Penny Henny on 07.26.22 at 12:38 pm
Alert.
Garth sighting.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/ottawa/ottawa-family-home-sale-price-market-1.6531055

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Thanks Penny Henny.

Blog Dogs…All Hands on Deck. Ready your defense systems. The comments section gonna get busy. Lock and load.

Garth…what happened to living quietly amongst the masses?

INCOMING!

#122 PBrasseur on 07.26.22 at 3:16 pm

5 Year Canada Bond yield fizzles to 2.85%

Flight to “safety” it would seem in the face of likely recession, and sure it could help support RE in the land of easy government backed credit where banks are the main lenders.

Not so much in the US though where most loans are made by non bank outfits who have trouble financing themselves since the Fed stopped buying Mortgage Backed Securities. Credit is not just more expensive, it is also much tighter.

This makes me think Canada is not (quite) done with RE, it will live and die by it. But as Keynes once said: “Markets can stay irrationnal longer than you can stay solvent”!

#123 Senator Bluto on 07.26.22 at 3:17 pm

#115 Outrage on 07.26.22 at 2:02 pm
T2 should dress up as the Green Man like you you see at the Canucks game. He’s running the country like some third world dictator that wants to destroy it. Any way ,Canadians voted him so they get what they deserve.

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I liked Trudeau better before his latest haircut. People could at least say they voted for him because he had nice hair.

Now he looks like Jim Carrey in “Dumb and Dumber” so the illusion is shattered.

Wow, what a choice: “Dumb and Dumber” or “Pepe Le Pew” for PM. I pray for the wisdom to choose wisely.

#124 Mattl on 07.26.22 at 3:20 pm

Check out the airport while you’re at it. Our standard of living is just fine. – Garth

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Airlines are still running below pre-covid volumes. Airports appear incredibly busy because of lack of staffing. Canceled flights not helping move people through either.

Consumer spending is about to fall off a cliff, you heard it here first.

#125 Rsrxh on 07.26.22 at 3:28 pm

“Check out the airport while you’re at it. Our standard of living is just fine. – Garth”

The airport crowd is only one limited subset of the general population. This limited subset of the population does not accurately represent “our standard of living”

There is zero evidence the overall standard of living of Canadians is in decline. – Garth

#126 TheDood on 07.26.22 at 4:11 pm

#111 Penny Henny on 07.26.22 at 12:38 pm

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/ottawa/ottawa-family-home-sale-price-market-1.6531055

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LOL! The way that article was written and using the couple who ‘lost’ 140K because they had to sell for less than their neighbors is laughable. They bought in 2015 for 350K and sold 7yrs later for 740K and it’s ‘poor me’?? Gimme a break!

#127 DON on 07.26.22 at 6:02 pm

#126 TheDood on 07.26.22 at 4:11 pm
#111 Penny Henny on 07.26.22 at 12:38 pm

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/ottawa/ottawa-family-home-sale-price-market-1.6531055

_________________________________

LOL! The way that article was written and using the couple who ‘lost’ 140K because they had to sell for less than their neighbors is laughable. They bought in 2015 for 350K and sold 7yrs later for 740K and it’s ‘poor me’?? Gimme a break!

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If I read/heard it correctly they bought an even better and bigger house at peak just down the street…and now rising intetest rates. How big of a house and yard did they need for 4 people?

‘Our forever home’ that was the justification? Geezus.

#128 Matthew Sullivan on 07.28.22 at 6:57 am

And what can we expect in the future now?