Milestones

It hasn’t happened often.

The recession of 1990-1. The recession of 1995. Briefly, following the anti-housing laws passed in 2017. And now, again.

As forecast here, the average detached house price in the mighty, mega-GTA market has just gone negative year/year. So homes cost less than twelve months ago in nominal terms. Add in 8% inflation, and it’s more.

The peasants and property lusters cry, however, “So what? Your precious equities are also circling the drain. So there, you bearded financial humpster.”

Okay, here’s the chart.

Suffering in the 6ix as prices plop y/y

Source: Toronto Regional Real Estate Board

Now why is this significant?

First, many Canadians (a helluva lot of them, actually) have most or all of their net worth in a single asset. At one address. In one city. Zero diversification. In contrast, no sane investor owns just one stock.

Second, most people buy their houses with leverage. The average down payment in Canada is around 22%, which means close to 80% of the price is financed – at rates which are reset every few years. The majority of people with RRSPs, TFSAs or non-registered investment accounts have zero leverage, and you’d have to search hard to find some hopped-up equity cowboy with an 80% ratio.

Third, the average detached house in this market cost $61,000 in land transfer tax on top of the purchase price in February. From the moment the deal closed, there was property tax to pay. When selling, a 5% commission takes eighty grand out of the proceeds. Plus HST. In contrast, there’s no transfer tax when buying a financial portfolio. No property tax. No hefty commission to sell. You pay a levy on profits (with a 50% discount) and finance trades or an advisor with the option of deducting those costs from taxes.

Fourth, look at the velocity of the decline.

The average Toronto detached was $1.7 million in February. Now it’s $1.3 million. That’s a $400,000 drop – 23.5% – in four months. If you sell, there’s no capital loss allowed – unlike with a distressed financial asset (in a non-registered account), where those losses can be used to wipe out taxable gains later. A B&D portfolio has declined by about half the amount a Toronto house has experienced, and continues to turn out dividend income, interest and distributions.

These are some reasons why those who rode a one-asset strategy up now face a rocky ride down. Bigger losses. More taxes. Financing charges and illiquidity (an ETF can be sold in one click).

Additionally a 23% price reduction also means someone who bought last winter with the typical 20% down payment is under water – especially so after adding in the LTT upon closing. Negative equity in a detached house in the biggest, richest city in the land. Who could imagine that a few years ago, when a SFH in the 416 was the gold standard?

The moral: houses are serious assets. They cost a fortune. They plunge you into debt. Ownership costs are relentless. They pay no income. They can be painful to buy and remorseless to sell. Tax-free gains can turn into after-tax losses. A seller today who bought a year ago might need to write a big cheque on closing day. Many could not afford to bail as a result. Trapped.

Rent and invest instead?

Works for me. You just need to explain it to mom.

About the picture: “Long time reader,” writes Mark in Toronto. “Here’s a picture of our foster fail George and the new puppy, Aker, which we will only have for a couple of weeks. Both from Northern Manitoba. Aker could be George’s Grandson. They are definitely a breed. Best dog I have ever had.”

122 comments ↓

#1 Prince Polo on 07.20.22 at 3:09 pm

I actually think you could say, no sane person owns just one asset class!

#2 Captain Uppa on 07.20.22 at 3:13 pm

Rent and invest?

Are you mad?!

My parents would have fainted on the spot.

#3 Overheardyou on 07.20.22 at 3:15 pm

I still think Canadians believe our housing market is invincible due to it not crashing during the GFC

#4 Uncle Rico on 07.20.22 at 3:15 pm

First!

#5 Sam on 07.20.22 at 3:27 pm

Dude you’re really obsessed with house prices. Try changing it up a bit.

Did I make you come here? – Garth

#6 Leftover on 07.20.22 at 3:32 pm

Junior’s not really that far underwater, Bank of Mom however…

#7 Linda on 07.20.22 at 3:37 pm

George & Aker are tres cute!

The other thing about the LTT (land transfer tax) is that it applies every time a property changes hands. So if any of those underwater purchasers sell, the LTT takes yet another slice of the RE pie. It might be a smaller slice due to prices dropping but still, a slice. Ouchie.

#8 Cash is King on 07.20.22 at 3:38 pm

Canadian housing markets crashing as the flight to the USA and better prices continues. Never pay more than you can afford to lose.

https://images.app.goo.gl/2YiViKRd4JCHRFLA6

#9 cramar on 07.20.22 at 3:45 pm

About the picture: “Long time reader,” writes Mark in Toronto. “Here’s a picture of our foster fail George and the new puppy, Aker, which we will only have for a couple of weeks. Both from Northern Manitoba. Aker could be George’s Grandson. They are definitely a breed. Best dog I have ever had.”

——-

George looks exactly like our former rescue dog Zoey. What ever the mixed breed, I have to agree with you, “Best dog!”

#10 Daveyboy on 07.20.22 at 3:46 pm

I have been renting the last 2 years and love it. Wife just got a remote job and can work from anywhere. A text message to the landlord last night to tell him that we are leaving, and poof we are out of here! Renting has alot of upside!

#11 Dave on 07.20.22 at 3:46 pm

“The average Toronto detached was $1.7 million in February. Now it’s $1.3 million. That’s a $400,000 drop – 23.5% – in four months. ”

1.3 million for a house is still a ridiculous amount that most wage earners couldn’t afford without taking on a huge mortgage. So isn’t this train wreck just beginning?

How many people under forty could put 300K down for a home?

#12 Dave on 07.20.22 at 3:48 pm

There never was a real housing supply shortage…just hungry investors that wanted 30% annual returns. Sadly most received 20%+ returns and this is what setoff fomo.
Interest rate hikes will balance the market out…..we need more interest rate hikes.

We don’t have a manpower shortage in Canada….we have a huge percentage of people that were teachers, nurses,and engineers that are all now Real Estate developers, RE Agents, etc.

Central banks low interest rates for years is the only cause….we all know the effect

#13 Tom on 07.20.22 at 3:50 pm

Most homes on the West Coast are still being listed 30-40% about assessed value 2 years ago. What else can explain this other than record low interest rates? Housing shortage doesn’t explain this. We didn’t suddenly increase the population by that much in the last two years. Granted, Trudeau is bringing in too many people, especially when we have a housing shortage, but it can’t explain the ridiculous jump in prices.

#14 Big B on 07.20.22 at 3:57 pm

First?

Garth, my daughter goes to the U o T. My wife thinks we should buy her a Condo since $2000 a month for a studio seems like money down the drain since she’ll be at the U of T for 4 or 5 more years.

Is my wife nuts?

#15 Søren Angst on 07.20.22 at 4:11 pm

Well.

THAT was unequivocal.

You need to be more forthright Garth. You do.

Well written, “tell it like it is”, honest to the point of brutality.

Funny thing is, truth sets a person free. It does.

#16 JB on 07.20.22 at 4:13 pm

Long time reader. Brampton market is falling, had 3 realtors recently door to door looking for leads and telling me my house is worth XXX — which is what is was selling for in Feb.

#17 Penny Henny on 07.20.22 at 4:15 pm

Yesterday.
#73 Prince Polo on 07.20.22 at 2:50 pm
This blog entry didn’t even make it to 100 comments?! Did some get lost by Canada Post?

////////////////

Faron and Fartz are on vacation.

#18 an investor on 07.20.22 at 4:19 pm

I’m saving todays blog. It’s one of your best ever.

#19 Johnny Debt on 07.20.22 at 4:19 pm

See rents go up in Toronto?

But that’s on condos, because their owners are eating it with higher rates.

Borrow borrow borrow. Pay it off tomorrow. You own!

You don’t even own your own body. It’s a lease. Sooner or later the mileage limit is reached and you have to return it.

#20 Nostradamus on 07.20.22 at 4:20 pm

Omg…1st comment again.. must buy Lottery ticket.

You can sell covered call options on your stocks to generate cash .
In a house you need a noisy tenant

#21 OK, Doomer on 07.20.22 at 4:21 pm

Balanced and diversified rocks. After my younger years of being said equity cowboy I smartened up started buying only dividend paying stuff many years ago.

Share prices are down. Big Deal. Dividends keep rolling in. *Yawn*

Back to my margaritas….

#22 Sail Away on 07.20.22 at 4:24 pm

Apocalypse preparation:

As a test this last week with my wife out of town, I decided to see how much it cost to feed myself well for one week. Result? Around $36 (some items had to be estimated from bulk container). For simplicity, meals each day were identical.

Food all from Costco, as follows:

3 days: Rotisserie chicken with beans, rice and carrots
2 days: Romaine lettuce salad with hardboiled eggs, carrots and bell peppers, topped with pecans and cranberries
2 days: Fried rice with onions, carrots, eggs

So $5.15 per day, or $1,900/year. 10% inflation will increase that by $190. Unsustainable!

#23 Miami_DC on 07.20.22 at 4:29 pm

First!
I’ll take my rent and invest strategy ALL Day Long…without it I couldn’t invest the 40-50% of my income I’m currently running. 25% taxes, 25-35% expenses, 40-50% investing. Voila!

#24 Sail Away on 07.20.22 at 4:30 pm

Apocalypse- restaurant dining:

Contrasting Costco to fine restaurant dining, 3 Whoppers per day would cost around $75 per week, or $10.70 per day; slightly more than double the cost of good ‘ol home cookin’.

#25 Søren Angst on 07.20.22 at 4:33 pm

I don’t live in Canada anymore, obv.

Haven’t a clue on how bad inflation is biting in Canada BUT if you were to ask me if I believe the June Inflation number, well…

UK 9.6%
USA 9.1%
EU (May) 8.6%
Canada 8.1%

[spot the anomaly or maybe it’s those Orca’s, Timmy Doughnuts, Poutine and Forest Primeval saving Canada’s heinie, yet again, just like they did for Covid]

Reading Twitter today after the Inflation number went public it’s pretty obvious Cdns are p!ssed right off and lashing out at anything, everything, anyone.

Stephen Punwasi, one of my faves that I follow and Ron “ronmortgageguy” Butler got into a quickie b!tch fest about Internet Prices rising.

https://twitter.com/ronmortgageguy/status/1549745311219957762

BTW, Punwasi was on a tear today. Here are a couple that I liked:

Canada’s MENSA PM
https://twitter.com/StephenPunwasi/status/1549773259603853312

Labour Shortages and Realtors (the Comments were pretty funny)
https://twitter.com/StephenPunwasi/status/1549754303547588608

——————–

Oh 🍁 at least you haven’t lost your sense of humour.

And THAT’s a good thing.

PS:

Here is StatCan’s “Consumer Price Index Data Visualization Tool” – Basket Weights, Canada.

Mouse over the graphic, knock yourselves out…

https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/pub/71-607-x/2018016/cpi-ipc-eng.htm

GARTH, IT’S GOING TO BE A LONG LONG 2 MORE YEARS OF MISERY. And the ball’s just stated rolling.

#26 Søren Angst on 07.20.22 at 4:36 pm

#19 Sail Away

As an Italian, add this to your unsustainable list:

– Your menu choices

Come to Italia SA and learn to eat and cook. I will show you how.

#27 wallflower on 07.20.22 at 4:53 pm

#5 Sam on 07.20.22 at 3:27 pm

Go away. This is not your site. Try reddit/s…
Don’t come back.

#28 45north on 07.20.22 at 4:53 pm

Additionally a 23% price reduction also means someone who bought last winter with the typical 20% down payment is under water – especially so after adding in the LTT upon closing. Negative equity in a detached house in the biggest, richest city in the land. Who could imagine that a few years ago, when a SFH in the 416 was the gold standard?

post from June 5:

The market will freeze, prices fall meaningfully, then enough buyers must materialize to save it from a collapse, as we revert to the norm.

don’t see them yet

#29 Squire on 07.20.22 at 4:57 pm

#14 Big B on 07.20.22 at 3:57 pm
First?

Garth, my daughter goes to the U o T. My wife thinks we should buy her a Condo since $2000 a month for a studio seems like money down the drain since she’ll be at the U of T for 4 or 5 more years.

Is my wife nuts?

——————–
Garth is working on his abs. I’ll be happy to answer.
Yes, nuts.

Add up the closing costs and all the costs of running the place for 4-5 years.

#30 NOSTRADAMUS on 07.20.22 at 4:58 pm

ABUSIVE, OBSCENE OR DISRESPECTFULL COMMENTERS
Garth I was under the impression you proof read all articles prior to publication. Somehow you have missed the wanna be Nostradamus. I am referring to #20 who is once again impersonating the one and only true Nostradamus. Please shoo this wanna be pest away. Disrespectful would best describe this individual. He is casting a bad light with his nonsense. Steady Lads, hold the line

#31 Søren Angst on 07.20.22 at 5:02 pm

#21 OK, Doomer

AMEN.

Spritz for me.

#32 zxcvbnm on 07.20.22 at 5:06 pm

I know Italy is a boring awful place only because a certain poster here spends so much of their day commenting inane nonsense here.

#33 Victor Llearna on 07.20.22 at 5:08 pm

Those sheep that bought house in the last year better learn to swim! They gonna be underwater for many year.

What I will never understand is why anyone in their right mind would ever pay 1.7 million for a house in horrible hellhole toronto. It has the worst traffic, worst public transportation, worst commute, worst gun crimes etc.
Salaries aren’t even that high and if something disrupts bank industry or bank head offices move out of downtown core, Toronto will be a lot like Detroit after the demise of American car giants

#34 Sail Away on 07.20.22 at 5:10 pm

#26 Søren Angst on 07.20.22 at 4:36 pm
#19 Sail Away

As an Italian, add this to your unsustainable list:

– Your menu choices

Come to Italia SA and learn to eat and cook. I will show you how.

——–

Cool. But I have lots to do and prefer not wasting time on food, so as long as it can be something like boot camp with one big spoon and 5 minute eating window, that would be best. And the wine in a takeaway cup for efficiency, thx.

#35 dosouth on 07.20.22 at 5:12 pm

Maybe someone could explain to me the mentality. We live semi-rural, about 15 mins from town. Skip the dishes rings doorbell with 3 pizza’s. I point to the house across the street with the divorc(ing) Gen X’er who is an unemployed contractor with 3 kids running around part time.

I say to the delivery bandana dude, “wish I could afford it but I cook” “Isn’t it quite costly to deliver?” He looks back and says, “Yeah, but you don’t get the convenience of this….and I get good tips.”

#36 Serfin' USA on 07.20.22 at 5:19 pm

Rent and invest

Have you ever seen an eight page rental application?
My first house purchase in 88 had less paperwork.

https://www.elections.ca/content.aspx?section=vot&dir=bkg&document=ec90785&lang=e

Ever heard of Fintrac? – Garth

#37 Quintilian on 07.20.22 at 5:39 pm

“Works for me. You just need to explain it to mom.“

My mom is not the problem, she is super smart.

My dad however, is embarrassed to tell friends I rent.

#38 Reality is stark on 07.20.22 at 5:41 pm

It’s only money.
But eventually you’ll have to visit the divorce lawyer and then you realize it’s a little bit more than just money.
It may have paid to read the blog.
They want the status and the white picket fence, especially during the pandemic when they were bored out of their minds. That was the time to say no.
Just let them walk.
You got to keep your cash and your sanity.

#39 Hubris on 07.20.22 at 5:55 pm

In my local bank today in sunny Sidney BC. Overheard manager telling junior member about buyers not closing. ” Well I have had two already – just walked” Junior ” what happens then?” Manager ” They lose their deposit” I think he could have said a lot more about liability etc. The point is All is NOT well in Victoria and surrounds regardless of what the pumpers say!
Hubris

#40 Editrix on 07.20.22 at 5:57 pm

Question: If inflation is, say, 7%, wouldn’t interest rates have to go above that 7% to be effective?

#41 Ken on 07.20.22 at 6:02 pm

Dear Readers:

What is the ‘net worth’ value of a DB pension? Can I compare it to the PV cost of a life annuity purchase?

Can I have more equity because I have a DB pension?

Between planners right now and online is full of…answers!

Thanks everyone!

#42 TurnerNation on 07.20.22 at 6:15 pm

Bikes, Babes and Balanced Portfolios.

……

A new and virulent variant of Blog Dog has been detected.

T2 advises of-course: blanket fear, blind trust, and be mercurial toward others Comrades.

#43 Suddenly and Unexpectedly on 07.20.22 at 6:20 pm

#5 Sam on 07.20.22 at 3:27 pm

Dude you’re really obsessed with house prices. Try changing it up a bit.

—————-

Uh, this is a finance and RE blog. Are you new?

In other news, Biden has cancer. From the big guy himself:

Biden: “You had to put on your windshield wipers to get literally the oil slick off the window. That’s why I and so damn many other people I grew up with have cancer.”

https://mobile.twitter.com/realdailywire/status/1549832535227731968?s=21&t=qU6xMd0_ejNsoisa2E8nqw

#44 yvr_lurker on 07.20.22 at 6:20 pm

With two DC pension plans in our household that are still in good shape, even after roughly a 10% loss in the past 6 months in a B+D plan, and two solid jobs we have absolutely no regrets about leveraging a little to buy our house in Kits in mid-2019. We are still way up from where we were in 2019 both in terms of $$$ and the happiness in being able to ride out and zoom our way (with 3 people online) during much of the pandemic. I don’t care if this place goes up or down a few hundred K as we are close to the beach and are not selling in my lifetime. It will be passed down to our kid and he won’t have to re-invent the wheel. There will always be a market for SFH in the inner core of Vancouver near the beach. When the mortage comes due in 2024, we will have two years left to go, and if the payments are vastly higher we will put down a lump sum.

Garth is correct that those who bought recently in smallish towns, or for those who hyper-extended (rather than over-extended) themselves with speculative investment purchases are going to be crucified.

B+D is indeed a way to go, but it is over-emphasized a bit on this blog as the main avenue for success. I have indeed learned a lot here, but extending oneself to buy an inter-generational house in a great location that can be passed onto the next generation is not to be discounted, and certainly beat the idea of having to fill in new rental agreements every few years when the owners renovict you or take over. It is not the option for us either to live in some village in a remote part of Italy just because it is cheap (and the only place we can afford in our retirement), and see our family and friends once a year where we struggle to learn how to speak Italian… nope… and nope…

#45 chalkie on 07.20.22 at 6:29 pm

Joe told me that him and his wife sold their home quickly as the buyers wanted a quick closing date in December 2021, so they closed early to get the big bucks, but the anxiety problem was, they had not found their new property to buy, so they rented for a year. How Lucky can someone get, now Joe tells me, they will also rent for the second year come Christmas and wait for the homes prices to bottom out or close to the bottom.
By the end of 2023, Joe and Rebecca has the potential of a 30 to 40% or more upside for their new home at the least, just because so many people were throwing their money to wind at the time and purchasing any home up for sale, how lucky could someone get, what was a crisis as Joe thought, turned out to be a blessing in the long run, and yes, he claims to be getting enough gains on his money from his home sale invested funds, to pay his rent has he waits for the homes to drop more.

#46 PeterfromCalgary on 07.20.22 at 6:35 pm

The worth of a house is it provides you a place to live. The worth of a stock is the profit and growth over time of the the underlying company. If either get over valued it is time to sell. If either get undervalued it is time to buy.

#47 The Woosh on 07.20.22 at 6:37 pm

#11 Dave on 07.20.22 at 3:46 pm
“The average Toronto detached was $1.7 million in February. Now it’s $1.3 million. That’s a $400,000 drop – 23.5% – in four months. ”

1.3 million for a house is still a ridiculous amount that most wage earners couldn’t afford without taking on a huge mortgage. So isn’t this train wreck just beginning?

How many people under forty could put 300K down for a home?

———————————————

You’d be surprised how many have that and more. And it didn’t come from mom & dad.

#48 Shawn on 07.20.22 at 6:38 pm

What’s the “Point”?

I always figured any non One percenter was in big trouble when the price of their house had a “point” in it. They better stick to units of thousands. Imagine regular folks pricing their house in units of millions even if only one of those large numbers. Insane. Although the math worked at 2% interest rates.

#49 DON on 07.20.22 at 6:42 pm

Only one question. Is the price of gasoline ever going back to under $1.40 a liter. I think I know the answer but am still hopeful.

#50 Tony on 07.20.22 at 6:51 pm

Re: #14 Big B on 07.20.22 at 3:57 pm

The lowest end of the housing market has fallen the least. Most speculators hold mostly the properties at the low end of the market. Should prices fall far enough many of these speculators will have no choice but to sell. If this happens the lowest end of the market will fall more than the highest end of the housing market percentage wise. I don’t see interest rates rising in 2023 so the low end of the housing market will likely hold up.

#51 Ohm on 07.20.22 at 6:51 pm

Big story today that inflation rose to 8.1 percent when most of us know it around 20 percent.

Canada should be a world leader in providing everything and I mean everything to the rest of the world but after 7 yrs of T2 and his most incompetent gang, there is not one person that I know that respects that fool. Even the Brits are making fun of him; the middle east just laughs.

Food banks usage is at an all time high, it is absolutely DESPICABLE!

#52 Russ on 07.20.22 at 6:52 pm

The missus left this vid up for me to enjoy.

It shows a black swan event and right from the beginning I heard “Trudeau” instead of “Emmanuel”.

“And how does that make you feel?” is the best line.

https://twitter.com/p4ndr_/status/1548017731936497665?s=20&amp%3Bt=SOPxj6aVHiSTy51qn5qvAA&utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email

Cheers, R

#53 Mattl on 07.20.22 at 7:01 pm

Well I have one house and am balanced – in fact investments are worth more then equity in the house. Mortgage at 1.6x income. No cowboy stuff here.

All that said, anyone that took a one asset approach 15/20/25 years ago – plugged all available savings into a home, then multiple homes, has absolutely smashed any other asset class. This is assuming they were saving, and investing in RE, not just taking trips to mex and waiting for the house to appreciate.

Reality is MOST people are lucky they have one asset that has value, the average renter probably is doing significantly worse. It’s not like the average renter is investing, look at TFSA balances.

Middle class does not make enough income to rent/buy, save AND consume at levels the economy needs them to. Investors should be grateful these people spend every penny. I welcome their reckless spending.

#54 DON on 07.20.22 at 7:08 pm

#5 Sam on 07.20.22 at 3:27 pm
Dude you’re really obsessed with house prices. Try changing it up a bit.

Did I make you come here? – Garth

**********

Judging by your comments since April Sam I am, you would rather stick your head in the sand. Too much skin in the game?

#55 Tripp on 07.20.22 at 7:34 pm

Only two (2) SFHs sold by developers in the City of Toronto in May? How is this possible?

https://betterdwelling.com/how-slow-is-toronto-real-estate-developers-only-sold-2-single-family-homes-in-may/

#56 Haas Say Yooh on 07.20.22 at 7:45 pm

South Korea inflation is 6%. They are a first world country by the way.

#57 bubu on 07.20.22 at 7:52 pm

“The average Toronto detached was $1.7 million in February. Now it’s $1.3 million. That’s a $400,000 drop – 23.5% – in four months. ”

The average sold in Feb vs now… That is a difference.. Prices didn’t go down.. People buy cheaper houses because they don’t qualify to borrow more.. It is a bit different from what is painted here…

#58 Mattl on 07.20.22 at 8:00 pm

#35 dosouth on 07.20.22 at 5:12 pm
Maybe someone could explain to me the mentality. We live semi-rural, about 15 mins from town. Skip the dishes rings doorbell with 3 pizza’s. I point to the house across the street with the divorc(ing) Gen X’er who is an unemployed contractor with 3 kids running around part time.

—————————————————-

this is common, people talk about the finances of their colleagues and neighbors. First off, what is an unemployed contractor? A typical contractor wouldn’t have a contract of employment. And how do you know what his finances look like? And why can’t you afford 40 dollars in pizza, and how is that the neighbors problem?

And FWIW, delivery on those grease wheels would be around 4 bucks, less then the cost of driving to pick them up. Envy is a powerful drug.

#59 Fact Checker Fred on 07.20.22 at 8:10 pm

#22 interesting….

#33 99% of people totally and consistently disagree with you. Just go where you want.

#49 I guarantee it will.

#51 Baloney. 8.1% is exactly right.

#60 the W.O.M.B.A.T. on 07.20.22 at 8:10 pm

With a B & D portfolio, if you need to raise some cash it is easy to sell part of your portfolio. Try selling 1/4 of your house with a single call to your broker and have the cash within a couple days.

M62ON

#61 Quintilian on 07.20.22 at 8:18 pm

#57 bubu on 07.20.22 at 7:52 pm
“The average sold in Feb vs now… That is a difference.. Prices didn’t go down.. People buy cheaper houses because they don’t qualify to borrow more.. It is a bit different from what is painted here…”

Actually, it’s worse from what is painted here.
With fewer sales , powered by rich bubus the average should have gone up considerably.

Tick Tock, Tick Tock

#62 Flop… on 07.20.22 at 8:43 pm

Flop Drops.

Wednesday night is notoriously a bad night on television, so what ya gonna do?

I had a look around, sales are scarce, summer, correction, yada, yada.

So we know the bottom in Vancouver proper is 1.35.

Burnaby, I had pegged at 1.25, but I think enough have sold at 1.15 to move that peg down one more notch.

Had a quick look out Surrey way to see if any had started selling below a million yet, saw some further out, doesn’t seem a problem finding one below a Million in the valley, but will keep Surrey bottom pegged at a million for now.

This house in Aldergrove just sold for 955k

https://www.zealty.ca/mls-R2704570/26592-30A-AVENUE-Langley-BC/

This place just swapped hands for 950k

https://www.zealty.ca/mls-R2690364/1706-OUGHTON-DRIVE-Port-Coquitlam-BC/

This house in Abbotsford just went for 760k

https://www.zealty.ca/mls-R2700664/1816-KEYS-PLACE-Abbotsford-BC/

When the television gets tough, the tough get blogging…

M48BC

#63 Bdwy on 07.20.22 at 8:54 pm

Ha . Burn.
Maybe he has 5 crews working and can run it by phone?

Closer to 10bucks really, w tip , but gas is crazy these days.

Just dropped 17lbs ,ten more to go for summmer. I miss those grease wheels bad for now!

#64 DON on 07.20.22 at 9:18 pm

#58 Mattl on 07.20.22 at 8:00 pm
#35 dosouth on 07.20.22 at 5:12 pm
Maybe someone could explain to me the mentality. We live semi-rural, about 15 mins from town. Skip the dishes rings doorbell with 3 pizza’s. I point to the house across the street with the divorc(ing) Gen X’er who is an unemployed contractor with 3 kids running around part time.

—————————————————-

this is common, people talk about the finances of their colleagues and neighbors. First off, what is an unemployed contractor? A typical contractor wouldn’t have a contract of employment. And how do you know what his finances look like? And why can’t you afford 40 dollars in pizza, and how is that the neighbors problem?

And FWIW, delivery on those grease wheels would be around 4 bucks, less then the cost of driving to pick them up. Envy is a powerful drug.

**********

It is amazing what heighbours brag about.

One of my neighbours told me he racked up his Cdn Tire card to the tune of 20k buying toys, tools etc.

Another used his house equity to buy an used rv…that has never moved in 4 years.

My wife also helps several families do their taxes each year and they are all living beyond their means.

And who is envious of take out Pizza? Better quality if you make your own.

Self declared brilliance coupled with ignorance is a much stronger force to deal with. Envy creates bubbles that is for sure.

#65 TalentScout on 07.20.22 at 9:19 pm

A family a couple of blocks from me in Pt Grey sold their nicely renovated, 2200 sq ft house on a 30’x120′ lot for $3.4M (!) a few months ago. Total headshaker. The new family that has moved in has not raised the blinds since. I am beginning to wonder if they are in mourning.

#66 Ronaldo on 07.20.22 at 9:32 pm

#22 Sail Away on 07.20.22 at 4:24 pm

Dumpster diving at Costco were we? Saw some others doing the same thing.

#67 KaleyCat on 07.20.22 at 9:57 pm

#14 Big B

Tell your daughter to get a roommate and pay the rent herself. Buying her a condo isn’t helping her to mature. Time to put on the big girl pants. Living a dorm lifestyle is the norm for uni kids. I’ll bet the kid can’t afford to maintain the condo on her own.

Your wife is betting on condo appreciation. Would she still want to buy one if the unit depreciates over the next 5 years?

#68 THE DANDADA on 07.20.22 at 10:13 pm

“Rent and invest instead?”

Did it for 5 years solid.
Best times of my life financially and socially.

Lots of cash in the bank and not a care in the world.

#69 Balmuto’ on 07.20.22 at 10:22 pm

“#53 Mattl on 07.20.22 at 7:01 pm

Reality is MOST people are lucky they have one asset that has value, the average renter probably is doing significantly worse. It’s not like the average renter is investing, look at TFSA balances.”

THIS. Most people I know that rent have little to no assets of any kind. It takes discipline to put aside the extra disposable income created by renting vs owning. And in reality those extra savings are rarely significant enough to make the trade-off worth it. Principal payments on a mortgage are an excellent form of forced savings and the value of that is not to be underestimated.

The one guy I know who rents and has a sizeable investment portfolio also owns an investment property that he rents out for income. So I don’t know anyone with significant net worth that doesn’t own real estate.

Denigrating others to justify your own choices is ugly. – Garth

#70 Bob on 07.20.22 at 10:46 pm

but, but, but Garth…

Have you forgotten, we should pity the losers…
Buyers in the last year WON their bidding war!

#71 Sail Away on 07.20.22 at 10:54 pm

#66 Ronaldo on 07.20.22 at 9:32 pm
#22 Sail Away on 07.20.22 at 4:24 pm

Dumpster diving at Costco were we? Saw some others doing the same thing.

———

Hey, it’s not the food’s fault it’s in the dumpster. Doing my part for sustainability.

#72 TurnerNation on 07.20.22 at 11:06 pm

LOL The orderly shutdown of the Former First World Countries continues.
If you think you will be allowed to charge your EV/Tesla think again.
Year 2020 was the training period.
#Stayhome, “Essential Travel only” right??

https://globalnews.ca/news/8949102/nuclear-power-pickering-gas-environment-electricity-ontario-ford/
Nuclear power station shut downs will leave Ontario relying on gas to generate electricity
READ MORE: Phasing out gas generation by 2030 would lead to blackouts, higher bills in Ontario: IESO
A recent study by IESO predicted “that without gas generation, Ontario’s electricity system would see frequent and sustained blackouts in 2030.”
That forecast was described as its “most optimistic assumptions.”
The electricity system operator said Ontario is already using hydro to its max, while solar and wind power rely on the weather.

——Comrades, The Internet Consp. Theorists nailed yet another one.

https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/new-dystopian-uk-law-would-give-all-social-media-users-truth-score
““Like something out of dystopian fiction, Penrose, the MP for Weston-super-Mare, has proposed that the government forces online platforms to maintain a score of how truthful a person is, determined by their past statements,” writes Dan Frieth.”

#73 Master of denigration on 07.20.22 at 11:11 pm

#69 Balmuto’ on 07.20.22 at 10:22 pm
“#53 Mattl on 07.20.22 at 7:01 pm

Reality is MOST people are lucky they have one asset that has value, the average renter probably is doing significantly worse. It’s not like the average renter is investing, look at TFSA balances.”

THIS. Most people I know that rent have little to no assets of any kind. It takes discipline to put aside the extra disposable income created by renting vs owning. And in reality those extra savings are rarely significant enough to make the trade-off worth it. Principal payments on a mortgage are an excellent form of forced savings and the value of that is not to be underestimated.

The one guy I know who rents and has a sizeable investment portfolio also owns an investment property that he rents out for income. So I don’t know anyone with significant net worth that doesn’t own real estate.

Denigrating others to justify your own choices is ugly. – Garth

___________________________

The pot calling the kettle blue…says the master of denigration himself!
Especially when he is correct. Most that have a remote chance to own property do so, whether a good idea or not.

#74 Catalyst on 07.20.22 at 11:27 pm

The only part I don’t like about investing is it generates income tax – unless you want to eat cat food and stay in a low bracket forever. When you pay for rent, it effectively costs you double if your in a high tax bracket as you need to generate that much after tax income to pay it. Paying off your mortgage provides great tax efficiency in Canada.

#75 Nonplused on 07.20.22 at 11:53 pm

I’ve argued a hundred times that a primary residence is more of a durable consumer item than an investment. This is why I don’t agree with the idea of a capital gains tax on primary residences. It’s only been during periods of ridiculous price gains brought on by absurd monetary policy that the increases have been substantially more than the cost of ownership once you count mortgage interest, maintenance, taxes, etc.

I have a feeling the LTT isn’t going to last long if prices keep dropping. It’s not sustainable to levy such taxes against an asset class unless that asset class is appreciating rapidly. People just don’t have the money to pay it unless they add it to their mortgage.

#76 Jagghi Singh on 07.21.22 at 12:32 am

DELETED (Anti-immigrant)

#77 Mousey on 07.21.22 at 12:33 am

Sail Away,
I’m concerned about your eating habits! Of course if army barracks food style is for you, utilitarian and all that, well one man’s water….. Having said that, I really think you are missing out on one of life’s greatest pleasures: a lovely, well thought out, slow tasty meal.

#78 Dr V on 07.21.22 at 12:48 am

Interesting explanation of inflation from Andrew Chang on the National. About 35 minutes in.

https://www.cbc.ca/player/play/2038155843965

#79 Dirtydebtor on 07.21.22 at 3:16 am

What are your rental digs Garth? Toronto condo? Rent control troled? 2 bedrooms? How much per month? Can you put a nail in the walls to hang a picture? Do you paint the place or put any other money into it?

#80 Jane24 on 07.21.22 at 3:21 am

I can make two lovely pizzas for $5! So can anyone if they tried. You can even buy pre-made pizza dough at any supermarket and the kids have the fun of adding the sauce and toppings. I hope that supper delivery guy is looking for alternate work as his delivery business will hit the skids in a few months.

#81 Sail Away on 07.21.22 at 6:05 am

#77 Mousey on 07.21.22 at 12:33 am

Sail Away,
I’m concerned about your eating habits! Of course if army barracks food style is for you, utilitarian and all that, well one man’s water….. Having said that, I really think you are missing out on one of life’s greatest pleasures: a lovely, well thought out, slow tasty meal.

———

Oh, there’s nothing wrong with good food! I’m a huge fan, just not the sitting around part. We tried a 9 course meal a few years back that stretched over 2 hours. Midway through, it would have been a relief if the next course was cyanide.

#82 Randy on 07.21.22 at 8:05 am

Just the beginning of the end for a very corrupt system https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2022-07-20/how-blackrock-lost-1-7-trillion-in-six-months

#83 Politicians on 07.21.22 at 8:17 am

#184 Diamond dog on 07.14.22 at 3:24 pm

Just wanted to acknowledge the reply and say thank you for the effort.

Logic makes sense.

However, to extrapolate further, would that mean inflation is stomped out after REP take the mid terms?

If so, how? Shrink money supply?

I don’t believe anything about 3.5% interest rates will happen, even 3%. Today bunch of pieces about 5%. Meanwhile, they are still at 1.75% as we know, likely to go to just 2.5%.

#84 Shawn on 07.21.22 at 8:29 am

There is no average house

#57 bubu on 07.20.22 at 7:52 pm
“The average Toronto detached was $1.7 million in February. Now it’s $1.3 million. That’s a $400,000 drop – 23.5% – in four months. ”

The average sold in Feb vs now… That is a difference.. Prices didn’t go down.. People buy cheaper houses because they don’t qualify to borrow more.. It is a bit different from what is painted here…

**************************
Great point, there is of course an average price for the homes sold. But there is no such thing as an average house. What’s it got 2.2 bedrooms? 1.3 stories high?

Teranet index tries to use price changes on the exact same houses changing hands I believe. It should work but I am told it is too lagged of a system. Problem is of course the same house does not sell often. And the same house might have been heavily renovated.

Houses are not interchangeable commodities like shares of Bell Canada. It’s inherently difficult to measure the price changes. Anyone reporting precision in home price changes (like a 3.2% drop) misunderstands the inherent lack of precision.

I mean yes, the decrease in the average price for whatever mis of houses sold is the best estimate we have, but we should all be aware of the inherent imprecision due to the changing mix. The imprecision is likely biggest in small markets.

I’m not arguing about Toronto home prices are down a lot, just trying to agree with bubu’s valid point here.

#85 Diamond Dog on 07.21.22 at 8:44 am

#82 Randy on 07.21.22 at 8:05 am

It’s interesting that you mentioned Blackrock losses. I was thinking how it must be bad for them for the CEO of Blackrock to get together with Kramer of all people to pump the markets:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=r41TlmJKOrA

This doesn’t relate to anything at all, thought I’d put it up because it’s so cool:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SIcpg_pFbF8

#86 Dharma Bum on 07.21.22 at 8:51 am

#81 Sail Away

Midway through, it would have been a relief if the next course was cyanide.
———————————————————————————————————

Hahahahaha….same way one feels when about midway through one of Soren Dolce’s posts!

#87 Criticism of Renters on 07.21.22 at 9:03 am

I believe that criticisms intended to denigrate those who rent are unjustified and tinged with cruelty. I think there is also an element of defensiveness in those who level these criticisms in that they seek to justify their decision to bet it all on a one asset strategy. And some of these may also be realtors who are trying to use base and deceitful claims to try to sway people into buying houses that are unaffordable for most. As an aside, our blog host does not often weed out these false prophets of real estate evangelism, instead preferring I believe to let their words be their undoing. If someone is stupid enough to fall for it, then so be it. Not everyone will find the right path.

Another aspect of this rather blinkered view is that housing as an investment is rather simple and yet the reasons why it may fail are based on the most complex circumstances. People do not generally understand the impact of compound interest and because they believe that “owning” a house provides status and security, they just turn a blind eye to what is actually going on including the underlying danger. Allied with that too simple outlook is a lack of trust in advisors. Simply put, we need capable and skilled people in all aspects of our lives whether it be in the trades, law, or education. Why should our finances be any different? Why cut off your nose to spite your face?

What our esteemed host, he of the coiffed intellect, golden & toasted abs, and testosterone-infused ties has lo these many years promoted is — wait for it — balance. We would all be much better off to seek balance, to stop making odious comparisons, and, if faced with a hellish existence thanks to our own mistakes, just to keep going, stop making the same mistakes, and seek balance. The all too common outcome of a one asset investment strategy is that it generally results in the feet-first retirement plan as they carry your corpse out of your house.

#88 Pbrasseur on 07.21.22 at 9:08 am

Some question the CB willingness to fight inflation, they think the bank will stop short for fears of creating a financial crisis, if only to accommodate policy makers.

But we should also question the central bank actual capacity to rein in inflation. The reality is that there’s so much debt now that truly high rates that would effectively slow demand would also cause a debt crisis.

In times of inflation people buy stuff because they thing it will be more expensive later (just look what happened to housing), instead you’d want them to save more, but who wants to save when your savings loose money?

Seems like an impossible problem to me, we’ve painted ourselves into a corner and frankly I don’t see how we get out of this without a nasty crisis.

#89 Looking up on 07.21.22 at 9:19 am

#77 Mousey on 07.21.22 at 12:33 am

Sail Away,
I’m concerned about your eating habits! Of course if army barracks food style is for you, utilitarian and all that, well one man’s water….. Having said that, I really think you are missing out on one of life’s greatest pleasures: a lovely, well thought out, slow tasty meal.

———

Oh, there’s nothing wrong with good food! I’m a huge fan, just not the sitting around part. We tried a 9 course meal a few years back that stretched over 2 hours. Midway through, it would have been a relief if the next course was cyanide.

————-

Clearly you’re not Italian.

#90 T Rex and the dinosaur clique on 07.21.22 at 9:39 am

DELETED

#91 Quintilian on 07.21.22 at 9:57 am

#69 Balmuto’ on 07.20.22 at 10:22 p
“So I don’t know anyone with significant net worth that doesn’t own real estate.”

Most owners could not afford to buy the house they live in at today’s prices, so the question is are they adroit or lucky?
I suggest they are beneficiaries of warped monetary experiment gone wrong.
Not a great long-term strategy.

Tick Tock, Tick Tock

And Shawn:

Once again you managed to cross the line of hair splitting and entered absurdity.

#92 atrizzy on 07.21.22 at 10:22 am

I bought a wonderful home recently as prices were falling. Did so without breaking the rule of 90 and put 35% down. And you know what the biggest reason for doing so was, Garth?

I bought it for my DOG! Finding a nice place to live with a 120 lb Great Pyrenees dog is literally impossible.

#93 Dragonfly58 on 07.21.22 at 10:25 am

If you are a person who does real life, hands on stuff with things, you need a house.
A place to keep your tools , equipment, materials , works in progress etc. Trying to do things with things in a rental is a doomed enterprise. Unless we are talking about stamp collecting,needlepoint or fly tying.
If you need a welder, drill press, table saw . Need to maintain your daily driver. Want a project hobby car or boat . Old vintage British or Italian motorcycle, RV . Play an instrument. Listen to music other than through head phones. Have a decent road bike that would be insane to stash out on a balcony. Work on that road bike in a more appropriate place than your kitchen table. Have a garden that is bigger than a postage stamp. And so much more.

If you are a person who is a traveler or 98% of the time a passive spectator or if you are rich and can keep your boat moored year round { read motorcycle, vehicle , RV etc. depending on your situation } and pay to have all work done for you, a rental will be fine.

Everyone else needs a permanent location to base their life out of.

#94 Dragonfly58 on 07.21.22 at 10:31 am

P.S. Tried renting workshop space lately ? It makes renting apartments and townhouses look cheap !

#95 Dr V on 07.21.22 at 11:09 am

82 randy

“Just the beginning of the end for a very corrupt system”
——————————————————

I dont understand. Markets go up, markets go down. The link talks about how much investing is now passive.

What specifically are you concerned about?

#96 Dr V on 07.21.22 at 11:12 am

84 Shawn

“I mean yes, the decrease in the average price for whatever mis of houses sold is the best estimate we have, but we should all be aware of the inherent imprecision due to the changing mix. The imprecision is likely biggest in small markets.”
————————————————-

Isnt this why the “Frankenumber” was created?

#97 Harry Fillmore on 07.21.22 at 11:19 am

Tiff tells Canadians that the rest of the foreseeable future will be an inflation racked hell. ‘There’s nothing he can do’. Parroting Trudeau and Freeland “we’ve done enough”. But Tiff has just OK’d billions more spending in ‘pander money’ directed to Trudeaus target audience.

http://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/inflation-rate-will-remain-painfully-high-all-year-bank-of-canada-governor-anticipates-1.1794703

The CB does not ‘okay’ federal expenditures. – Garth

#98 DON on 07.21.22 at 11:36 am

Don’t renters become owners?

Don’t you need renters to become owners to enable other people to step up the property ladder. If renters don’t or can’t move up…what happens to demand and house prices?

You better hope some renters can still afford to buy a house Balmuto.

#99 RG on 07.21.22 at 11:57 am

#93 Dragonfly58
If you are a person who does real life, hands on stuff with things, you need a house.
_____

I live in a rental apartment in downtown Toronto and I do plenty of “real life, hands on” stuff. You can do plenty with hand tools. I have built speakers, done metalwork and electronics at my kitchen table. I can work on my motorcycle in the garage of my building. And yes I listen to music not on headphones and it is plenty loud.

Your experience is not universal and your assumptions about renting fallacious.

#100 Sail Away on 07.21.22 at 12:05 pm

If we use TSLA as a bellwether of the world economy, today is quite auspicious as it rockets up.

And full self driving has moved several steps closer to universal adoption. That, my friends, is the true unicorn.

#101 Observer on 07.21.22 at 12:19 pm

Anyone else with ZSML not enjoying watching the bloodbath?

#102 Dragonfly58 on 07.21.22 at 12:41 pm

Just freaking bicycles. Wife , a road bike and a mountain bike , Son got bit by the BMX bug when he was young, so 2 BMX’s, gotta have a spare for race weekends, a 24 ” wheel mountain bike, later a 26 ‘ wheel, finaly a road bike so he could go on rides with wife and I, Me, two vintage road bikes, mountain bike, a pre war CCM vintage track bike, eventually a 24″ BMX so I could do more than watch my son and keep his bikes in tip top shape when at track weekends. Plus all the spare parts, tools, work stand , extra wheels etc . And that is just for 3 of us being involved in cycling. How are you going to do this in a rental ?

#103 Shawn on 07.21.22 at 12:49 pm

Frankenumber?

#96 Dr V on 07.21.22 at 11:12 am
84 Shawn

“I mean yes, the decrease in the average price for whatever mis of houses sold is the best estimate we have, but we should all be aware of the inherent imprecision due to the changing mix. The imprecision is likely biggest in small markets.”
————————————————-

Isnt this why the “Frankenumber” was created?

******************************
No such number exists. It’s a made up term. A term used to denigrate a number used by a real estate association I believe. People stooping to such name calling belittle mostly themselves.

The term may be my invention. It describes a ‘statistic’ fabricated to fudge or massage actual data. Does that belittle me, your grace? – Garth

#104 Shawn on 07.21.22 at 12:53 pm

Self-driving cars will come

#100 Sail Away on 07.21.22 at 12:05 pm
If we use TSLA as a bellwether of the world economy, today is quite auspicious as it rockets up.

And full self driving has moved several steps closer to universal adoption. That, my friends, is the true unicorn.

************************
I only have the (highly) adaptive cruise control and the auto pilot. I did not buy full self driving but I get a preview where it shows that the car sees traffic lights, lanes, traffic cones, vehicles around me and people on the side of the road.

Yeah, it’s coming. U.S. just approved cars with no steering wheel or manual controls or at least have laid out a path to get there.

#105 Dr V on 07.21.22 at 1:13 pm

102 Dragonfly58

“And that is just for 3 of us being involved in cycling.
How are you going to do this in a rental ?”
———————————————

Well, we’ve got 8 adult bikes road/cross/gravel/mtn and 3 kids bikes (saved for g-kids but none yet) in a 22X14 basement workshop. The indoor heat is good for drying after power washing.

Have 8 bike hooks at one end, workbench at the other, extra ceiling hooks for wheels, tires, fenders. Storage under workbench, pegboards, resin shelves, tool cabinet, parts bin, dedicated bike took chest, floor fan etc.

I note that most smaller/newer homes lack this space, but many older homes do have it, or room in the garage,
or a separate workshop.

#106 Dragonfly58 on 07.21.22 at 1:20 pm

Good on you RG. Been there, done that. The only way I could personally make that work was by renting a decent size shop off a friend out at her farm. The commute was a big handicap , not to mention all the rent over the 5 years I tried that approach.
Done much welding at your Apt. ? Something I do at least 3 or 4 times a month. How does your band saw and table saw work out for you. I am talking real life , hands on stuff.
Not little fix it jobs.
Built a Lotus 7 replica lately ?
I am a Journeyman Mechanic , former HS Shop Teacher and for 30 years a very heavy equipment Engineer. My idea of a small project is overhauling a 6 – 71 Jimmy.

#107 Dr V on 07.21.22 at 1:21 pm

103 Shawn

“No such number exists. It’s a made up term. A term used to denigrate a number used by a real estate association I believe. People stooping to such name calling belittle mostly themselves.

The term may be my invention. It describes a ‘statistic’ fabricated to fudge or massage actual data. Does that belittle me, your grace? – Garth”
————————————————-

Yes, I credit Garth with the term.

But wasn’t the “House Price Index” the reaction to
criticism of the over-simplified “average” house price, where, supposedly it helps by analyzing market
comparables?

Shawn you sound grouchy. A good walk might help.

#108 TheDood on 07.21.22 at 1:27 pm

#98 DON on 07.21.22 at 11:36 am
Don’t renters become owners?

Don’t you need renters to become owners to enable other people to step up the property ladder. If renters don’t or can’t move up…what happens to demand and house prices?

You better hope some renters can still afford to buy a house Balmuto.
______________________

This is the unfortunate mindset in Canada. It doesn’t occur to the vast majority (most of who are financially illiterate) that home ownership is not the only path to prosperity. You can get there renting and investing too.

______________________________

#109 Dragonfly58 on 07.21.22 at 1:29 pm

Dr V, that sounds very much like my set up. Small scope framebuilding as well. Replaced lots of dropouts for myself and friends, add subtract braze on’s. Only built 2 forks so far. Have a seriously crumpled 1949 Gillott waiting for me to work up the nerve to take it all apart and use up the 531 tube set I bought a couple of years ago. Previous owner drove into his garage with it on the roof rack. One of my ultimate vintage frame set’s , but a very big undertaking. Except for the crumpled https://www.cyclingutah.com/bicycle-history/a-s-gillott-bicycles-a-brief-history/tubes this one is the same as mine.

#110 clowny on 07.21.22 at 1:30 pm

#64 Sail Away on 07.20.22 at 11:23 am
#22 Sail Away on 07.20.22 at 4:24 pm
#24 Sail Away on 07.20.22 at 4:30 pm
#34 Sail Away on 07.20.22 at 5:10 pm
#71 Sail Away on 07.20.22 at 10:54 pm
#81 Sail Away on 07.21.22 at 6:05 am
#100 Sail Away on 07.21.22 at 12:05 pm

👋 🤡

Thing with hypocrisy is that it’s cool as long as you are in the company of sycophants. Most of the time, one isn’t. And people notice.

#111 Dragonfly58 on 07.21.22 at 1:31 pm

Dr V, that sounds very much like my set up. Small scope framebuilding as well. Replaced lots of dropouts for myself and friends, add subtract braze on’s. Only built 2 forks so far. Have a seriously crumpled 1949 Gillott waiting for me to work up the nerve to take it all apart and use up the 531 tube set I bought a couple of years ago. Previous owner drove into his garage with it on the roof rack. One of my ultimate vintage frame set’s , but a very big undertaking. Except for the crumpled tubes this one is the same as mine.

https://www.classiclightweights.co.uk/readers_bikes/gillott-fleur-de-lis-1957-2/

#112 Shawn on 07.21.22 at 1:56 pm

The term may be my invention. It describes a ‘statistic’ fabricated to fudge or massage actual data. Does that belittle me, your grace? – Garth

****************
You say massage, they might say smooth. Well, I like my new title anyhow. Thank you! That kind of name calling is okay.

#113 Sail Away on 07.21.22 at 2:23 pm

#105 Dr V on 07.21.22 at 1:13 pm
102 Dragonfly58

“And that is just for 3 of us being involved in cycling.
How are you going to do this in a rental ?”

———

Well, we’ve got 8 adult bikes road/cross/gravel/mtn and 3 kids bikes (saved for g-kids but none yet) in a 22X14 basement workshop. The indoor heat is good for drying after power washing.

Have 8 bike hooks at one end, workbench at the other, extra ceiling hooks for wheels, tires, fenders. Storage under workbench, pegboards, resin shelves, tool cabinet, parts bin, dedicated bike took chest, floor fan etc.

I note that most smaller/newer homes lack this space, but many older homes do have it, or room in the garage,
or a separate workshop.

———

I own a single mountain bike that is used daily for probably 4-5,000 km per year on average, with aero bars for road riding and fully outfitted for serious bikepacking.

Perfect for commuting, recreation, hunting and camping. Tour Divide soon. Maintained at home.

#114 Dr V on 07.21.22 at 3:15 pm

113 Sail Away

“I own a single mountain bike that is used daily for probably 4-5,000 km per year on average, with aero bars for road riding and fully outfitted for serious bikepacking.”
—————————————————-

Excellent! If you want to slide the bar a little more towards road, today’s “gravel” bikes offer much the same versatility. Wide range gearing, hydraulic disc brakes, mounts for fenders, racks and extra bottles, and clearance for wider tires. Can handle gravel and easy
singletrack, and you can always get some extra hoops with skinnier rubber for the road.

#115 Dr V on 07.21.22 at 3:20 pm

109 Dragonfly

“…use up the 531 tube set…”
————————————-

Sweet! Steel is real!

#116 Frank on 07.21.22 at 3:30 pm

Montreal market is still not going down, can’t wait to see the next year.

#117 Penny Henny on 07.21.22 at 3:33 pm

CPD, ZPR, HPR and all looking kinda woof today. I meant rough.

#118 Uncle Buck on 07.21.22 at 3:52 pm

#113 Sail Away on 07.21.22 at 2:23 pm
#105 Dr V on 07.21.22 at 1:13 pm
102 Dragonfly58

“And that is just for 3 of us being involved in cycling.
How are you going to do this in a rental ?”

———

Well, we’ve got 8 adult bikes road/cross/gravel/mtn and 3 kids bikes (saved for g-kids but none yet) in a 22X14 basement workshop. The indoor heat is good for drying after power washing.

Have 8 bike hooks at one end, workbench at the other, extra ceiling hooks for wheels, tires, fenders. Storage under workbench, pegboards, resin shelves, tool cabinet, parts bin, dedicated bike took chest, floor fan etc.

I note that most smaller/newer homes lack this space, but many older homes do have it, or room in the garage,
or a separate workshop.

———

I own a single mountain bike that is used daily for probably 4-5,000 km per year on average, with aero bars for road riding and fully outfitted for serious bikepacking.

Perfect for commuting, recreation, hunting and camping. Tour Divide soon. Maintained at home
———

I’m curious, what model/year mountain bike?

#119 Just me on 07.21.22 at 4:05 pm

There’s a ton more to go. Just for laughs I followed a link on one of the maps you posted about two months ago. Houses for sale in Brampton (snort!!!!). Randomly clicked on a listing for about $1.2M. A total piece of crap. I expected to see a burned out car and an old fridge on the front lawn. By comparison a colleague of mine lives in Stamford CT. Connecticut hedge fund manager country. His house is appraised at about $1.1M. About 3,500 ft2. Very nice. Prestige neighbourhood, not out by the Giant Tiger and the Money Mart like the Brampton listing. Lots, lots, lots more to go.

#120 Outrage on 07.21.22 at 4:09 pm

I saw Ryan on BNN. I still think a big correction is coming, 2020 or even 2009 levels. I see all assets going down except the U.S. dollar. If China ,Russia and brics countries form their own currency, look out.

Not happening. – Garth

#121 Sail Away on 07.21.22 at 4:50 pm

#118 Uncle Buck on 07.21.22 at 3:52 pm
#113 Sail Away on 07.21.22 at 2:23 pm

I own a single mountain bike that is used daily for probably 4-5,000 km per year on average, with aero bars for road riding and fully outfitted for serious bikepacking.

Perfect for commuting, recreation, hunting and camping. Tour Divide soon. Maintained at home

——–

I’m curious, what model/year mountain bike?

——–

2013 Giant Anthem 29 carbon. Handlebar bag, seat post and frame bags fit enough gear and food for 4 days or a hungry week.

Carbon wheels and aerobars are perfect for the road. No problem finishing a ride at Tzouhalem or Maple Mtn and deciding to tuck into the aerobars and road ride the 50-60km home.

If the snows hold off, every October we’ll bike into the S. Chilcotins with empty backpacks and rifles, hike up to the alpine and camp, then out with boned out deer. Luckily it’s all uphill in/downhill out. Lots of grizz though.

https://www.mountainbikingbc.ca/cariboo-chilcotin/south-chilcotin/

#122 KLNR on 07.22.22 at 10:28 am

@#35 dosouth on 07.20.22 at 5:12 pm
Maybe someone could explain to me the mentality. We live semi-rural, about 15 mins from town. Skip the dishes rings doorbell with 3 pizza’s. I point to the house across the street with the divorc(ing) Gen X’er who is an unemployed contractor with 3 kids running around part time.

unemployed contractor?
feel like you’re making this story up.
the demand for contractors is obscene right now.