You did what?

Lost in the no-Rogers fog on Friday was some big news.

When Covid hit in early 2020, the economy shut down. Lots of people were idled, without choice. The lucky ones kept their jobs, paycheques, pensions and benefits with WFH. Little did we know at the time the world was altering. An innate hatred of work was being aided and abetted by a slimy little pathogen and our government’s over-the-top financial response to it.

So on Friday came news of how society reaps what they sowed.

There are three things to know. They’ll affect the future.

First, more people quit their jobs last month (about 100,000) than ever before outside of the 2020 public health crisis. That ‘great resignation’ we heard about seems to be true. Surveys show that (a) Millennials and Zs and (b) especially women would rather punt their job than go back to the workplace. So as WFH winds down, that’s exactly what is happening.

Second, this is a big problem. Despite losing 43,000 paid positions in June, the jobless rate crashed to 4.9% – the lowest since they started tracking this stuff fifty years ago. This is considered full or maximum employment. In other words, everybody who actually wants a job can have one. Never before have there been this many openings.

Full employment may sound good. But it’s not. Without a labour pool to dip into, businesses can’t expand. Especially intensive service industries. And since the service sector comprises 60% of the entire economy, we’re kinda hitting a wall. Have you been in any restaurant anywhere that doesn’t have a “We’re hiring – all positions!” sign in the window? Me, neither.

Third, this is really, really driving that inflation train. Employees are in demand, and in control. Wages and incomes are rising. Historically. StatsCan revealed the average hourly wage rate exploded higher by 5.2% year/year in June – triple the experience of 2021.

Yeah, wages higher by 5% doesn’t even keep pace with the 7% hike in consumer prices, but it’s a huge new burden for businesses also struggling with supply chain wonkiness, runaway energy costs and the increased overhead caused by everything from input food costs to insurance premiums. This will likely do a number on profits – and corporate tax revenues.

So, inevitably (you guessed it) this is feeding the central bank’s aggression.

The imbalance between the demand and supply of jobs is escalating costs and driving a wage-price spiral we haven’t seen in Canada since the days of Trudeau. The first one. How did he deal with it? The guy who brought in state-mandated controls on how much people could earn or the mark-up businesses could charge for products and services. Didn’t work. Ultimately it fell to the CB to swell rates dramatically. In 1970 the Bank of Canada rate was 7.1%. Today it’s 1.5%.

Source: RateSpy.com

What does the CB want now, in light of Friday’s stats?

Just what the Scotiabank guy said on Friday in this blog. A few “broken teacups”. In other words, they want the unemployment rate to go up.

This is bound to happen. The bank rate will hit 3.25% later this year, giving us a chartered bank prime of just under 5.5%. HELOCS will be 6%, VRMs will have gone from 1.5% to 4.5% with five-year fixed mortgages north of 6% (depending on how the bond market sees things).

Will higher rates bring less economic activity and a higher unemployment rate?

Yup. And the CB won’t stop until that happens. Not to accomplish this would be a major fail, since inflation control and a stable currency are two of its central mandates. The risks are (a) this will take a longer recession to accomplish, (b) the T2 gang may screw things up by heaping on fiscal stimulus (like priming housing again), (c) those 100,000 people who walked away from their jobs last month might just have made a life-altering mistake

Fortunately, young people know everything.

Otherwise they’d flip out.

About the picture: “No verbose suck up,” writes Brian. “Suffice it to say I enjoy my daily read of your blog and purposely avoid the comment section.  Anyway, this is a picture of Mackenzie kayaking on Chilliwack Lake.  He’s 5 and most time of the time he is good fella.  Hopefully he’ll pass muster and make your masthead.”

122 comments ↓

#1 Matt on 07.11.22 at 1:56 pm

Unemployment good, employment bad. Got it!

#2 JacqueShellacque on 07.11.22 at 2:00 pm

Austrian economics groupies would also add that increases in real wages will increase the move to more capital-intensive processes. Those who have the money to invest in those already (ie, big corps, the well connected) will be the ones to reap the gains. So for now it seems like waiters/waitresses, dishwashers, and kids working their first job at fast food joints are doing relatively well. In the long run though a lot of the work whose wages are currently rising the most quickly will disappear first, and will be most badly effected when the fit really hits the shan (my guess is once people are done bingeing on summer travel and entertainment).

#3 OriginalAlex on 07.11.22 at 2:02 pm

Woohoo! My family made it to the 100k mentioned.

I don’t know Garth, we have a pretty sizable nest egg (even after the current mess), we have young kids that still want us around a lot and we have low overhead… So even if the next job pays less, it will be ok…

There’s plenty of work for people who want it still.

#4 Graeme on 07.11.22 at 2:21 pm

Pay is too low. Forget the minimum wage nonsense. This is Econ 101. REAL wages suck and after-tax disposable.. I’m at a loss for any family friendly adjectives. People are throwing in the towel on running the hamster wheel. Inflation expectations are entrenched–I know a lot of techies I saw job hopping in Vancouver last year (inc. myself) were reassessing their pay cheques in addition to work-life balance. Bottom line over what’s happening is the share of wealth that’s been going to equity holders over past decades needs to shrink and more of it go to labour. Otherwise this isn’t going away. Forget globalization; It’s not going to be a driver of growth since much of the cheap labour has already been exploited and countries aren’t exactly getting along. Energy is getting more expensive. Demographics?–doesn’t look hopeful there either. Am I missing some other source of salvation? Seems to me while the short term is confounding, the crystal ball 20 years out clearer than it’s been in a long while.

#5 Sail Away on 07.11.22 at 2:22 pm

Thanks for the post, Garth.

To be fair, a lot (not all, but a lot) of service jobs are frivolous bunk. At least 50% of restaurants, for one example.

From the standpoint of one anonymous engineering firm on Vancouver Island, the future couldn’t be brighter with profitable longterm contracts in place, plenty of motivated staff and most work coming by word of mouth and repeat clients without advertising.

Staff turnover basically nil, happy offices, lots of company-sponsored food, golf and fishing. Abundance abounds!

#6 cuke and tomato picker on 07.11.22 at 2:32 pm

Is it true that the Canadian Wheat Board is owned by
an American Agri food company and an investment
company out of Saudi Arabia and this is why my grandson and myself tradition of getting an apple fritter from Sidney Bakery has gone from $1.33 to $1.84 and now to $2.20 each. What ever the price WE WILL NEVER STOP THIS TRADITION.

#7 TurnerNation on 07.11.22 at 2:32 pm

2008 might have been the test. 10 years of being locked in under artificially low interest rates. Cars, Homes. The reaper is coming! ‘They will own nothing and be happy’?? ;-)

“Car Repos Are Exploding. That’s a Bad Omen.
Most of the loans on recently repossessed cars originated during 2020 and 2021, whereas origination dates are normally scattered because people fall on hard times at different times”
https://www.barrons.com/articles/recession-cars-bank-repos-51657316562

———-

— But how much new ‘Hospital Capacity’ has been added? Get the picture yes what our rulers care about?
The downtown Novotel also is homeless shelter. Cozy relationship.

“City of Toronto staff have unveiled a plan to lease a North York hotel for more than $68 million and convert it into a temporary home for refugees — just weeks after an auditor’s report slammed the city’s handling of contracts with local hotels it uses as shelters.’
Coun. John Filion, who represents the area and is also vice chair of the city’s audit committee, said he only found out about the plan to lease the 17-storey Hotel Novotel from city staff less than two weeks ago.
https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/toronto-could-spend-68m-to-house-refugees-in-hotel-weeks-after-scathing-ag-report-on-shelter-costs-1.6514066


— Yay Health Care. Our leaders just wish us health. PRAISE their handling over the past few years.

“With one in two nurses thinking of quitting their job, Canada’s health-care system is currently in a crisis, says Linda Silas, president of the Canadian Federation of Nurses union.
Across the nation, five million Canadians do not have a primary health-care provider, a key issue in the country, according to Silas.”
https://globalnews.ca/news/8980038/canadas-health-care-political-leaders/

#8 Captain Uppa on 07.11.22 at 2:37 pm

Everyone is talking about this recently. Everyone asks each other “where did everyone go?”

I think this is especially acute in Ontario, where many fled the province for more “affordable” pastures.

Many people retired; a lot of them early.

People died during Covid.

But seriously, that can’t account for the bulk of vanished workers … can it?

#9 TurnerNation on 07.11.22 at 2:46 pm

A shoutout to my handful of fans. 2 hands, maybe?

— Supply chain. Winding down the Former First World Countries continues. Our tax farm rulers probably gonna starve us into submission this time.

“National rail labor strike possible July 18 unless President Joe Biden intervene”
https://www.aol.com/news/national-rail-labor-strike-possible-210827661.html

—— Comrades we have shortages still you know. Just another day of WW3.

.Cough and cold medications in short supply in Canada: pharmacists association (ctvnews.ca)

—— Don’t call it a global #reset??

“The Netherlands is going on involuntary lockdown tomorrow as farmers are taking their frustration with government response to the cities. Every major municipality will be hit by blockades. Buckle up Rutte. http://DutchUprising.com
https://twitter.com/TheRealKeean/status/1545908993020661760

“”Social Peace Is In Great Danger”: Germany Is Quietly Shutting Down As Energy Crunch Paralyzes Economy”
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/social-peace-great-danger-germany-quietly-shutting-down-energy-crunch-paralyzes-economy

“Albania nationwide protests | Government collapsed the economy, told to resign.”
https://twitter.com/EndGameWW3/status/1545876677284216833?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw

.Macau All businesses including casinos to shutter 11-18 July; government says everyone must stay home due to Covid-19 outbreak (macaonews.org)

#10 Scott in Gibsons on 07.11.22 at 2:50 pm

Still haven’t seen a really good analysis of what is causing the labor shortage. Does anyone have information to share?

#11 Jens on 07.11.22 at 2:55 pm

Unfortunately, a lot of the “broken teacups” will be small businesses that are struggling to make their mortgage payments just like everyone else, while the big banks make a killing off higher interest rates.

#12 Søren Angst on 07.11.22 at 2:58 pm

Europa Travel – Covid Cases on the Rise, Deaths remain Very Low

First, if in Italia for an ambulance call 118 preferred for Respiratory Diseases vs. the General 112 in the EU.

Second, and again, past week 900K cases in France, 600K cases in Italy (last 2 that are still testing and counting – the rest like the UK no longer counting or doing much testing). UK per the ZOE Study had about 600K cases past week but a huge jump of 350K cases on July 9th alone.

https://health-study.joinzoe.com/data#interactive-map

Third, latest Covid death rates in France, UK & Italia are very low per million (0.92 to 1.36). Go to Our World in Data to verify on you own.

Fourth, if you do get sick in Italia with Covid no worries about Hospital, ICU beds – their saturation level is very low (3.6%/14.7%). Plenty of room for you Canada if you get Covid sick in Italia. Lots of experience with Covid in Italia to get you back on your feet. About 90% of Italia has been vaxd.

———————

Again, for minimum travel disruptions fly to Rome’s Fiumicino Airport (FCO) instead of the usual London, Frankfurt, Amsterdam or Paris that are having very high travel disruptions. Flying from Rome to elsewhere in Europa you are at the mercy of other countries for travel disruption.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2022-07-01/record-flight-delays-cancellations-make-europe-2022-s-worst-place-to-travel

Get comprehensive Travel Insurance as well Canada, like for everything.

#13 Søren Angst on 07.11.22 at 3:04 pm

Like you Garth, still having a time wrapping my mind around the dichotomous June Labour Force Survey.

I think it was the same for StatCan per the diatribe they wrote accompanying it.

I agree with you assessment.

Fewer workers. High wage gains. Inflation fueled. Growth stymied.

The CB will do what it can do and that is to stomp down on Demand with higher rates.

——————

CB Meme:

Let the bullets fly, land where they may.

This will not end well.

#14 bob on 07.11.22 at 3:06 pm

In light of new evidence that you are so confident a recession will come (and it hasn’t)

doesn’t that suggest selling some and wait on the sidelines, e.g. for the next 6 months?

or at the very least, don’t buy in right now?

Why not? Markets anticipate recovery. They have already priced in the foreplay. Just invest when you have money. – Garth

#15 YVRTechGuy on 07.11.22 at 3:12 pm

I actually suspect many, possibly the majority, of people who quit the Canadian workforce last year actually fled the country entirely.

Me and my family also left last year – household income over $200k, over $1M down-payment for a home – but not enough for anything decent anywhere where a professional career exists for either of us in Canada – we’re ‘poor’ you see.

Every step of the way, I’ve got the impression we were part of a larger tide of emigrants. The international moving company, the call-centre workers at the utilities as we closed our accounts, the specialist tax advisers in our new country, even my sons class at his new school has 3 new families recently arrived from Canada. The other parents are questioning why they’re seeing so many Canadians all of a sudden.

Worked for 20 years in high-tech in Vancouver, a variety of companies – usually a steady inflow of skilled-immigrants, occasionally some leavers, but few and far between. Looking over my Linked-In profile it now seems that the majority of the folks-originally-from-elsewhere but made Canada their home over the past decades have now left in the past year and fled Canada. Skilled, mobile labour moves fast it seems.

There’s no official record of us leaving … yet … only my ‘departure’ tax return – and that’s been ‘In Progress’ for the past 4 months. There’s definitely a tide happening that’s not shown up in any official statistics.

Me & my wife’s jobs back in Canada are still unfilled over a year later…

#16 Where did the people go on 07.11.22 at 3:13 pm

Thanks for the blog Garth
There is more in depth analysis needed rather than saying 100,000 people quit their jobs or left the workforce.
Possible reasons

1. Baby boomers retiring, I think 10, 000 per day, American stats are turning 65 how many are retiring?
2. People going into gig economy
3. People staying home to raise kids
4. People going back to school
5. People starting their own business
6. Automation, here in Nanaimo airport they could not hire cleaners so they hired robots!
7. One million Americans died of Covid, I am sure allot were working.
8. Immigration was very low during Covid
9. How many people are changing jobs?
10. Your guess here.

Cheers have a great day

#17 North snore on 07.11.22 at 3:17 pm

Soren Angst, thanks once again fkr all the info and updates in europe. Sent you a pm on ur pinterest acct

#18 Flop… on 07.11.22 at 3:27 pm

Trudeau chucked his job in, back in March 2020.

No one has noticed yet…

M48BC

#19 Fathers Daughter on 07.11.22 at 3:30 pm

Women are leaving the workforce because childcare is nightmare. A babysitter in the city will charge minimum of $20/hour, even if they have no experience. To get someone to watch both my kids will be closer to $22-$25/hour. We sponsored a nanny from overseas two years ago, IRCC has yet to process her application (educated, English speaking, meets all criteria for program) due to their backlog. The big daycare announcement has led to nothing. Daycare would be around $4000 for both of my kids, and they’ll be sick half the time. Somewhat of a dilemma.
In other news we have hundreds of thousands of Ukrainians coming over with no money, and in need of a job (on the books if they want hope of getting PR). Maybe everyone should secure something while they can. It is kind of a mystery where all the workers went though..

#20 ElGatoNeroYVR on 07.11.22 at 3:34 pm

Thuogh my opinion is quite unpopular , let me reapet it again.
If a business cannot afford to pay the living wage in the area it operates ( or invest in equipment to make up for it) it is not actually a real business.
A lot of the companies ,including big-ones have not adapated to the new reality ,during the pandemic people realized that there is more to life then work ,eat, sleep ,repeat. Workers want full-time jobs with benefits or minimum guaranteed hours for part-time jobs. I would also say that over 16 hours/week some sort of partial benefits should be availble ( small medical ,rrsp match ..whatever).This is in addition to real living wage.

#21 The Original Jake on 07.11.22 at 3:42 pm

A lot of those job losses will come from the housing market and sectors attached by the hip.

Homebuyers are canceling deals at the highest rate since the start of the pandemic:

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/07/11/homebuyers-are-canceling-deals-at-highest-rate-since-start-of-covid.html

#22 ElGatoNeroYVR on 07.11.22 at 3:43 pm

Part2.
Generally speaking there is no such things as lack of skilled cadidates.
What we have is:
A) unrealistic expectactions on the employers part ,unecessary degrees and narrow experience required
B) unwiligness to hire junior candidates and train them
C) wages that do not match the posted job requirements e.g. wants master degree and 10 years experience but pays 50K , warehouse manager with experience and a degree in logisitcs paying 36-40K .
I could go on but I think the point is made.

#23 Søren Angst on 07.11.22 at 3:44 pm

Dichotomous June Labour Force Survey. May to June:

Labour force -97.5K
Employment -43.2
Unemployment -54.3 (off the dole)

Near 100K gone MIA. May labour force was higher, obv, so Covid didn’t kill them.

By age group, rounding by StatCan and not me:

15 to 24 years, both sexes
Labour force -32.1K
Employment -11.4
Unemployment -20.8

25 to 54 years, both sexes
Labour force -8.0K
Employment +19.5
Unemployment -27.6

55 years and over, both sexes
Labour force -57.4K
Employment -51.3
Unemployment -6.0

Kids and Paleos in Training MIA.

——————-

Looking at it Labour Force by Industry.

Goods overall +32.5K.
– Only major drop there was Natural Resources -20.1
– Construction +23.0
– Manufacturing +26.3

Services overall -75.7K.
– Wholesale and retail trade -60.7
– Health care and social assistance -20.2
– Information, culture and recreation -13.9
– Accommodation and food services -10.5
– Public administration +14.9
– Transportation and warehousing +11.2

——————-

To add insult to accident, Labour Force Participation Rate May to June:

-0.4%

———————
———————

My theory:

Kids went on vacation, never to come back again.

Paleos in Training skipped the training and retired.

#24 Joe Lalonde on 07.11.22 at 3:44 pm

So, how’s it going from an American House Builder’s perspective?

https://mishtalk.com/economics/expect-huge-negative-revisions-to-new-home-sales-as-sales-crash-and-orders-cancelled

Hmmm, not good at all.

#25 Bitcoin Bro on 07.11.22 at 4:00 pm

What used to be good, secure well-paying jobs do not cut it anymore. Nurses, teachers, etc. making $80-$100K a year who have families are basically working poor in the golden horseshoe and south BC in this environment. This is the straw that broke the back of the nurses who are leaving the industry in droves.

The fortunate “White-collar” workers are quitting for fat raises to take advantage of wage inflation and the tilted job market. We’ll see how long this lasts. I have noticed recruiter activity dry up quite a bit over the last few months.

Retail and food service workers? Tip well and be kind to your waitresses who are toughing it out in this environment. I really can’t blame anybody for not signing up for this kind of work considering what it pays relative to the outrageous cost of living in this country.

#26 yvr_lurker on 07.11.22 at 4:04 pm

For a more balanced discussion on the underlying roots of this rapid inflation, it would be helpful not to focus mainly on those lazy-ass skilled workers who are likely demanding some hybrid WFH type arrangement and for their wages to keep up with inflation. Nor should we be focus on the “problems” of a (long-overdue) increase in the minimum wage for those service sector workers who have long been rather exploited. These are the two scapegoats of the right-wing business community. Is it the goal of Gov’t, lobbied by business, to enact financial policies so as to have a relatively high unemployment rate that kills any negotiating power of workers and drives the more lowly paid such workers back into the dust? I hope not.

How about a frank discussion or debate regarding those firms and industries with near-monopolies using the pent-up demand to effectively rapidly increase prices well-over their rising costs; i.e. the supply/demand model of setting prices, and the clear opportunity for price gouging when the supply chain is broken so as to make it more difficult for other firms to enter the market driving prices down (Robert Reich).

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/greedflation-is-corporate-profit-taking-driving-prices-higher/

When consumers have exhausted their financial ability to satisfy their pent-up demand, price gouging will likely be no longer be a viable business model in some industries.

#27 CJohnC on 07.11.22 at 4:09 pm

#6 cuke and tomato picker on 07.11.22 at 2:32 pm

Yes, a 50.1% stake in the Canadian Wheat Board was sold April 15 2015 to private US and Saudi Arabian interests by Stephen Harper.

#28 Canuck on 07.11.22 at 4:10 pm

Surveys show that (a) Millennials and Zs and (b) especially women would rather punt their job than go back to the workplace. So as WFH winds down, that’s exactly what is happening.
______________________________________________

Meanwhile, there are news stories out that people in their 60’s are delaying retirement because of how much they lost in the markets and they see hard times ahead.

See the disconnect between young and old… and the funny part is that some of those seniors will end up bailing out their adult children when we’re in a full blown recession next year.

#29 Søren Angst on 07.11.22 at 4:11 pm

Dichotomous June Labour Force Survey, May to June.

Near 100K gone MIA.

Maybe Covid did kill them and nobody’s talkin’?

[-20.2K fewer Health care and social assistance workers in June]

Covid is now #5 in the all time killer epidemics of humanity.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_epidemics

I can remember when it was in 20th place. The little pandemic that could ain’t done with us yet.

It’s got it’s little virus heart set on #1.

———————-

#17 North snore

Prego.

#30 WAR IS HELL on 07.11.22 at 4:13 pm

Russia has it coming to them, reap what you sow Putin.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2022/07/11/russia-should-prepare-hammering-impressive-himars-rockets-can

https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2022/07/11/effectiveness-of-ukraines-himars-fuels-concern-in-russia-a78257

#31 Dougie on 07.11.22 at 4:15 pm

” it’s a huge new burden for businesses also struggling with supply chain wonkiness, runaway energy costs and the increased overhead caused by everything from input food costs to insurance premiums. This will likely do a number on profits – and corporate tax revenues.”

So Mr. Turner, does this indicate that a B&D portfolio is going to continue to be hammered?
As it has been happening for months now?

If your portfolio is ‘hammered’ it’s not balanced and diversified. – Garth

#32 Dougie on 07.11.22 at 4:23 pm

By the way Mr. Turner, this is further evidence to suggest that the plan of our government (and maybe all indebted governments) is simply to intentionally inflate government debt away.

Example: say the average tax rate in Canada is…perhaps 25%.

People earning $100K pay the government $25K..

Inflate incomes by purposely causing run away inflation e.g. stimulate the cost of basic necessities (like say…HOUSING) and now everybody needs more money.

Pressure from such intentional inflation result in wages going up out of “necessity” to say $200K per year. And it only buys what $100K used to buy.

Even if that income level stays in a 25% tax bracket (it won’t) government revenue doubles to $50K per year from $25K.

Boom, everybody pays double the taxes, and the added revenue is (maybe) used to service the debt.

Though more likely it will be used to buy votes.

Quite corrupt really.

Dontcha think so?

#33 wallflower on 07.11.22 at 4:24 pm

#15 YVRTechGuy on 07.11.22 at 3:12 pm
Your comments are super interesting as I have been opinionating that increasingly, immigrant Canadians are leaving Canada.

It is the unspoken reality in Trudeau’s elephant room.
Ratchet up the immigration numbers because retention is ratcheting down, but don’t talk about that!

But, because we FAIL to create useful metrics wrt to citizenship and residency, we have no functioning data points.
However, I have seen bits and pieces here and there hence my opinion on this decreasing-retention reality.

Also, I suggest to all youngsters here to consider life elsewhere. There are lots of countries where one can get established and enjoy much else, like decent year-round weather and affordable housing. So, I suspect even Canadian-born are starting to look elsewhere in greater numbers than historic.

My son’s cohort – age band 24 to 34 – is very different from my boomer cohort. Alot of them ARE starting their lives elsewhere; everywhere from UK, Portugal, Bulgaria to Thailand. In my time, we travelled to these places for a year. Now, they just up and leave and relocate.

As for the recent immigrants, both citizens and PR, with whom I engage, NONE of them plans on staying long term in Canada. They are using Canada as an earning originator while living crap lives working all the time and remitting most of their income to home nations.
They hate the weather, they cannot afford to live here decently, and those with children fear the education system is not what they were expecting. (Whatever that is.)

#34 Søren Angst on 07.11.22 at 4:25 pm

The Mother of All Personal Info breaches.

“Police data on 1 billion Chinese will expose China’s reality and deep secrets; so, who did it?”

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qZo_QnltvDg
[15:12]

More than just Police data was breached.

Staggering numbers.

10 BTC will buy you all the data.

#35 Overheardyou on 07.11.22 at 4:26 pm

I was wondering why the Mcdonalds I visit frequently closed their dining area recently. I also noticed the employees older than my mother were bringing meals to the parking lot…

#36 Bdwy on 07.11.22 at 4:35 pm

With the euro at par with usd what a great time to go to the place of old stuff.

Spain Portugal italy and Sicily planned for nov escape from rain.

#37 Shawn on 07.11.22 at 4:37 pm

Labour Force Survey mystery?

#23 Søren Angst on 07.11.22 at 3:44 pm
Dichotomous June Labour Force Survey. May to June:

********************************
Key word: SURVEY.

It’s a phone survey of a sample of households.

Subject to fairly significant statistical error around plus or minus 28,000 nationally I believe.

Subject to people not quite knowing if they in the labour force or not. Retired with a little bit of self employment how should you answer the question?

Subject to people telling lies for a variety of reasons.

Working “under the table” how should you answer? On EI but can’t be bothered to look for a job but are you going to admit that?

Point is it has a lot of noise month to month. It’s irresponsible to quote it as if it’s a count as opposed to a statistical estimate.

#38 Take a Break on 07.11.22 at 4:38 pm

29 comments and 5 from O Sole Mio Angst.

Seems like out of 150 comments on any given post, 100 of them come from 10 people.

Seriously man, take a year off or something.

#39 Stone on 07.11.22 at 4:41 pm

First, more people quit their jobs last month (about 100,000) than ever before outside of the 2020 public health crisis. That ‘great resignation’ we heard about seems to be true.

———

So a small percentage Canada’s population stopped looking for work.

So what?

Maybe those people saved up their pennies, invested well, and now have a steady income coming in that is not from employment income.

I did.

I can tell you it definitely was a life-altering decision. Just not the doom and gloom you’re intimating. I’ve never felt more free and alive in my life.

Lots to learn from an older generation. Lots to learn from a younger one as well. When you take all those learnings and perspectives and put them together, you’ve got a pretty rich tapestry.

As for inflation, ensure your B&D portfolios are set up to withstand it as best possible. Currently sitting at -11.06% with a dividend yield that allows me to sleep easy every night.

#40 Linda on 07.11.22 at 4:56 pm

What I’m wondering is how this will all pan out. As of 4th quarter 2021 Canada had more than 915,000 positions looking for a body to fill them. I don’t know how the great resignation affects this, but if those 915K are still empty & another 100K opened up, that would put jobs going begging for bodies at well over the one million mark. So how high would the official CB rate have to be to make those million plus positions disappear? How much more to increase the jobless rate? Also if CB rates are going up what is the flow through effect on markets?

#41 Victor Llearna on 07.11.22 at 5:06 pm

(c) those 100,000 people who walked away from their jobs last month might just have made a life-altering mistake

I guess they gonna Learn a lesson. although when you have a job that doesn’t even cover rent in the city you live in (ie toronto) what is the point? Might as well quit.

#42 Fact Checker Fred on 07.11.22 at 5:06 pm

There is an additional factor contributing to the problem that Garth mentions. Since February 2020, 84% of employment growth has been government jobs.
The government that we can’t afford is out competing the private sector for workers. No doubt rising interest rates will eventually force governments to scale back and we will have a replay of the nineties.

#43 DON on 07.11.22 at 5:10 pm

#28 Canuck on 07.11.22 at 4:10 pm
Surveys show that (a) Millennials and Zs and (b) especially women would rather punt their job than go back to the workplace. So as WFH winds down, that’s exactly what is happening.
______________________________________________

Meanwhile, there are news stories out that people in their 60’s are delaying retirement because of how much they lost in the markets and they see hard times ahead.

See the disconnect between young and old… and the funny part is that some of those seniors will end up bailing out their adult children when we’re in a full blown recession next year.

************

I over heard two retired gents talking about how the decrease in RBC stock are keeping them from summer travel in an inflationary environment. One colleague put off retirement till next year due to a decrease in his portfolio.

Retired people relying on a one-stock strategy? They deserve to stay home. – Garth

#44 Ohm on 07.11.22 at 5:23 pm

#15 YVRTechGuy

I am glad that you mentioned that. I know of 6 families who have left Canada to go back to their country of origin in the past six months.
Majority said that this country is a lie; there are no greener pastures here! It is hardship after hardship and expensive.

#45 Don on 07.11.22 at 5:25 pm

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=N-5d7V4Sbqk

Stranger things!!! This is from NYC today. (Yes Official NYC)

NYC getting ready for a nuclear attack. Are they planning a “preemptive attack” on Russia, and preparing the nation for a counterattack from Russia?

Is this the harbinger of ill wind?

(I am reposting this here from the previous blog, as I believe many missed this. Just had to share this.)

Why? – Garth

#46 Neo on 07.11.22 at 5:28 pm

Hatred of work eh? Try hatred of slavery.

Pitchforks are on sale at Crappy.

https://www.canadiantire.ca/en/pdp/maximum-manure-fork-0597127p.html#plp

#47 Penny Henny on 07.11.22 at 5:52 pm

#38 Stone on 07.11.22 at 4:41 pm

As for inflation, ensure your B&D portfolios are set up to withstand it as best possible. Currently sitting at -11.06% with a dividend yield that allows me to sleep easy every night.

////////////////////

YTD as of today just over 5.14%
Dividends on blue chips spitting out $72,000 almost tax free dollars per year.
LG
Life’s Good

#48 Penny Henny on 07.11.22 at 5:55 pm

I would have been net 0 for the year had I not stepped away from the banks for a few months.

#49 Dougie on 07.11.22 at 6:00 pm

” it’s a huge new burden for businesses also struggling with supply chain wonkiness, runaway energy costs and the increased overhead caused by everything from input food costs to insurance premiums. This will likely do a number on profits – and corporate tax revenues.”

So Mr. Turner, does this indicate that a B&D portfolio is going to continue to be hammered?
As it has been happening for months now?

If your portfolio is ‘hammered’ it’s not balanced and diversified. – Garth

Mr Turner, are you honestly suggesting that the portfolios of which you are aware have not seen a substantial drop in net value of late?

If you worry about a 10% or so decline after a 36% gain over the last three years you have lost perspective. Chill. Things will come back. – Garth

#50 Tony on 07.11.22 at 6:11 pm

Re: #10 Scott in Gibsons on 07.11.22 at 2:50 pm

The tail end of the baby boom generation are retiring. Through tax planning most will retire somewhere in the middle of the year.

#51 JSS on 07.11.22 at 6:16 pm

There are a lot of depressed people out there. Especially in the white collar office professions. I work with them all the time.
The common complaint I hear from them is that the salaries are not keeping up with inflation. Plus there’s a bunch of office workers who are too old to pick up and change employers in order to get a salary increase (too risky). So they sit at work, leg on top of leg, being unproductive because they’ve been getting 0-1% raises for the last decade. Talk about unmotivating.
Some of the workers just stopped giving a shit, which is another issue. If the organization has only a couple of employees like this, you can performance-manage them out the door, but if you work for a big employer, there might be hundreds (maybe thousands) of disengaged staff. What does an employer do? Big problem.
I’ve seen a bunch of younger workers leave educated careers to go start small businesses in areas like landscaping, snow removal, sign making, and running food trucks for 8-9 months of the year. They like the freedom and simplicity in some of this work, that in another lifetime, they looked down on.
Overall, there is a lot of depression out there, and it’s mentally burned out a lot of workers. The Covid hangover is a big part of the issue.

#52 ElGatoNeroYVR on 07.11.22 at 6:17 pm

#44 Ohm on 07.11.22 at 5:23 pm
#15 YVRTechGuy

I am glad that you mentioned that. I know of 6 families who have left Canada to go back to their country of origin in the past six months.
Majority said that this country is a lie; there are no greener pastures here! It is hardship after hardship and expensive.
===============
Matter of perspective and expectations . I go visiting every so often the old country in the Estern Eurrope and I would never move back willingly.
Canada delivered for me and a lot of others in my circle just as expected.
I would agree it did not delivered for all and some did move back or plan to spend more time there post-retirement ; not us or my children.
And yes, there were plenty of hardships and it is expensive ,but better a bit lower living standard in a1st world country (which Canada still is) then higher in a 2nd or 3rd tier country.
Big fish in a small pond is not necessarily better.

#53 jess on 07.11.22 at 6:21 pm

Fact Check-Fake CBC News headline about ‘state of … – Reuters
https://www.reuters.com › article
3 days ago — Fact Check-Fake CBC News headline about ‘state of emergency’ in the Netherlands over farmer protests misleads social media users.

Misleading video claims Dutch farmers attacked undercover …
https://www.euronews.com › … › Europe Decoded
5 days ago — As Dutch farmers protest over emission cuts, a misleading video claims that undercover police officers were attacked by demonstrators.

https://www.government.nl/topics/coronavirus-covid-19/visiting-the-netherlands-from-abroad

============

Mark MacGann, former top executive, comes forward as Uber Files leaker
MacGann, the public face of the company’s tumultuous European expansion, said he leaked the trove of documents to make up for his role in its aggressive practices: “We had actually sold people a lie”

#54 Sail Away on 07.11.22 at 6:29 pm

#48 Penny Henny on 07.11.22 at 5:55 pm

I would have been net 0 for the year had I not stepped away from the banks for a few months.

——–

Good call, even though you took a little heat for it here…

#55 Giga on 07.11.22 at 6:31 pm

Yes, they do!!!! “Young people know everything.”

#56 Concerned Citizen on 07.11.22 at 6:39 pm

I wonder how many of the recent retirees made out like bandits from the central bank housing and stock bubbles. Those that got lucky and bought near the lows and and sold near the highs – always a tricky business – could very well have doubled their money. That would have advanced many retirement plans. Even those that didn’t were still likely up 30-50% from pre-COVID highs.

I also wonder how many younger folks have looked at the cost of living – again brought about by the central bank money printing – and decided to move away from the craziness. When rents increase 30-40-50% in 1-2 years – as they have for many – you can’t help but think some folks have checked out. Even with inflation being a worldwide phenomenon, there are still many high quality places to live that are affordable.

Naturally, the government’s plan isn’t to address the cost of living, but rather to ramp up immigration massively to replenish the pool of people willing to work for minimum wage and live 20 to a basement. I feel bad for the immigrants – they’re being sold a dream that largely no longer exists.

BTW, the BoC rate is just 1.5%, while CPI rages at 8+ percent. That’s how serious they are about getting inflation under control. Even if they raise by a full point next meeting – which they won’t – the gap will be over 5%! Let’s face it – their focus is on inflating away the debt, not on controlling inflation.

The CB rate is not a commercial or lending rate. – Garth

#57 Stone on 07.11.22 at 6:40 pm

#47 Penny Henny on 07.11.22 at 5:52 pm
#38 Stone on 07.11.22 at 4:41 pm

As for inflation, ensure your B&D portfolios are set up to withstand it as best possible. Currently sitting at -11.06% with a dividend yield that allows me to sleep easy every night.

////////////////////

YTD as of today just over 5.14%
Dividends on blue chips spitting out $72,000 almost tax free dollars per year.
LG
Life’s Good

#48 Penny Henny on 07.11.22 at 5:55 pm
I would have been net 0 for the year had I not stepped away from the banks for a few months.

———

Penny, you go to cash for a few months and then talk about $72,000 in dividends per year? How many times have you done that now, just this year?

Mmmmmkay.

How about you set up your own blog, like I do. Document all you do. Show everyone how you have nerves of steel. That you don’t sell in a panic continously. How you sleep easy all the time.

Until then, …

Why would anyone take you seriously?

#58 Observer on 07.11.22 at 6:55 pm

#15 YVRTechGuy on 07.11.22 at 3:12 pm

More on: “Me and my family also left last year …”

Now try “Jane went with David and me to the store”.

Drop “David and” from the sentence. You are left with: “Jane with with me to the store”. Sounds right, right?

#59 Ponzius Pilatus on 07.11.22 at 6:59 pm

Talking about inflation eroding paychecks.
I say:
Give me my hard earned raise, and I look after the inflation part myself.
That’s what fiscally responsible people do.

#60 Observer on 07.11.22 at 7:09 pm

#58 Observer on 07.11.22 at 6:55 pm

You are left with: “Jane with with me to the store”. Sounds right, right?

edit: Jane went with me to the store”.

#61 Exurban on 07.11.22 at 7:11 pm

#51 JSS

I was going to post a similar comment but you have covered it better. Depressed unmotivated people just like you describe who Do. Not. Want. To. Come. In. To. Work. Both at my large organization and pretty much everywhere else I look. Blue collar trades are doing better, mentally and otherwise.

I also see what some other posters report about people leaving the country, both recent arrivals and young people who have grown up here. This the metro Vancouver area BTW.

#62 Don on 07.11.22 at 7:11 pm

#45 Don Why? -Garth

I have never seen a preparation for a nuclear attack from the USA.

Why this youtube video from the NYC Emergency Management, today?

The question is WHY now? WHat do they know?

Worry about things that you can control. – Garth

#63 Miketheengineer on 07.11.22 at 7:11 pm

Garth et al:

I lost my high paying job back in March 2021. My co-workers didn’t like how I smelled, and after 3 1/2 years of training, etc, I was punted. I had a small severance, which carried me through, then just as that ended, a 6 month on site job was available without benefits, and greatly reduced pay. Then an agency found me full time with benefits, and mostly work from home, back in March. Still with a whack of pay less than what I had.

Lots of people I know gave up on the work environment and retired. Lots of people I know were screwed for ANY pay increase, let alone a 2% one. Employers should note that everyone has an eye on the market now and will change and or leave if the can find better pay. Then a bunch of people went off on sick leave, mental or physical.

I really hope I don’t get into an accident. Who knows if you will get treated correctly if you have to go to hospital.

The government should be aware that increasing the cost of fuel, is going to destroy the lower paid people. I hope they don’t go like in Sri Lanka. When people lose everything they are going to totally lose it. I pray that this won’t happen.

I hope I d

#64 Adam on 07.11.22 at 7:15 pm

What’s really hilarious is that, in every generation, the older ones think the younger ones are stupid until they eventually don’t. And yet, still, some people repeat this cycle of thinking as if their generation is special. You’ll get their one day, Garth. Maybe.

#65 DON on 07.11.22 at 7:19 pm

#43 DON on 07.11.22 at 5:10 pm
#28 Canuck on 07.11.22 at 4:10 pm
Surveys show that (a) Millennials and Zs and (b) especially women would rather punt their job than go back to the workplace. So as WFH winds down, that’s exactly what is happening.
______________________________________________

Meanwhile, there are news stories out that people in their 60’s are delaying retirement because of how much they lost in the markets and they see hard times ahead.

See the disconnect between young and old… and the funny part is that some of those seniors will end up bailing out their adult children when we’re in a full blown recession next year.

************

I over heard two retired gents talking about how the decrease in RBC stock are keeping them from summer travel in an inflationary environment. One colleague put off retirement till next year due to a decrease in his portfolio.

Retired people relying on a one-stock strategy? They deserve to stay home. – Garth

*********

His wife retired from RBC in Victoria and they used the dividends for travel. Not sure what he retired from.

#66 Labour shortage explained on 07.11.22 at 7:32 pm

“Still haven’t seen a really good analysis of what is causing the labor shortage. Does anyone have information to share?”

Here is my common-sense guess. Many people that were laid off in the sectors most affected by Covid (restsurants, travel, etc) needed to look for new income sources after the government handouts stopped. Since their own sectors were still much more heavily restricted or under lockdown, they found jobs in different sectors that are less vulnerable to Covid policy changes. Now that, since three months, their original sectors are trying to hire back original staffers, these folks face a dilemma: am I going to go back to my old sector, even if my current job is crappier, knowing that if a bad mutation shows up I will likely again loose my job? The rstional decision is to stick with the new job. I suspect that only if the coming fall and winter will not see a repeat of the past two years that these people will consider returning to their old sectors. Makes sense, doesn’t it?

#67 Ponzius Pilatus on 07.11.22 at 7:32 pm

#15 VanLoser
You’re saying are a Techguy.
But, judging from your post I recon you are dilettante dabbling in Fiction novels.
#33 Wallflower

My son’s cohort – age band 24 to 34 – is very different from my boomer cohort. Alot of them ARE starting their lives elsewhere; everywhere from UK, Portugal, Bulgaria to Thailand. In my time, we travelled to these places for a year. Now, they just up and leave and relocate.
————–
You gotta be kidding me.
UK, Portugal, Bulgaria?
I hope they have not left yet.
Oh, never mind.
They’ll be back in no time.

#68 Dudleyworkright on 07.11.22 at 7:36 pm

Come on Garth. Imagine a world where business have to compete for workers and actually pay them decently!

People are drowning. You’ll have no trouble filling positions if you start actually offering competitive wages not just saying that you do in your ad.

Quite frankly this is a perfect time to bring some laws into effect. Like say salaries must be included in job postings or only 5% of your workforce (at maximum) can be part time and contract. Etc.

People making decent money just spend that money back into the economy.

#69 Ponzius Pilatus on 07.11.22 at 7:40 pm

#17 North snore on 07.11.22 at 3:17 pm
Soren Angst, thanks once again fkr all the info and updates in europe. Sent you a pm on ur pinterest acct
————
Asking Dolce Vita for information about Europe is like asking Trump what he thinks about the Democrats.

#70 Quintilian on 07.11.22 at 7:46 pm

“Fortunately, young people know everything.
Otherwise they’d flip out”

Chill Garth.
Please stop pointing fingers at us; it is your flawed generation that took us here.
Perhaps not of the same nature of breach, but you may draw some wisdom from:

“But why of two oaths’ breach do I accuse thee
When I break twenty?”

Aside from a couple of the curmudgeons on this blog who seem to have some common sense, most of the boomers I know are hopelessly ignorant, and lack the moral foundation to stop the exploitation of the young as they do so with glee, while they boast of their success pointing to their vinyl McMansions.

#71 Generation old on 07.11.22 at 7:49 pm

What a bunch of crybabies.
Leave Canada, too hard, cost of living.
Give me a break.
Your lucky your not beaten for saying t2 is an ASS

#72 Roofer on 07.11.22 at 7:49 pm

Thanks to inflated housing market, people are quiting their jobs and living off their house wealth. Many sold investment property to do this.

#73 Salt on 07.11.22 at 7:49 pm

Salt is the best performing stock

#74 Steven on 07.11.22 at 7:51 pm

Why work if you can use your savings and go to a nice low tax bracket and take advantage of all the goodies Justy gives out?

Live within your means, play the game.

It’s better than dealing with the over stressed middle managers who are running their tail off trying to keep up so they can pay for their high debt load and expect you to be as committed. Ha!

Thanks for enhancing my tiny income (on paper) that is…just playing the game like the big boys. And sadly my former middle class friends are paying for all of it.

True Freedom 55….)))))

#75 The Original Jake on 07.11.22 at 7:57 pm

#36 Bdwy on 07.11.22 at 4:35 pm
Spain Portugal italy and Sicily planned for nov escape from rain.

You sure? November is the wettest month for Spain. Go in September while the weather is still summery and the tourists are gone.

#76 Ponzius Pilatus on 07.11.22 at 7:59 pm

#26 Yvr lurker
How about a frank discussion or debate regarding those firms and industries with near-monopolies using the pent-up demand to effectively rapidly increase prices well-over their rising costs; i.e. the supply/demand model of setting prices, and the clear opportunity for price gouging when the supply chain is broken so as to make it more difficult for other firms to enter the market driving prices down (Robert Reich).

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/greedflation-is-corporate-profit-taking-driving-prices-higher/

When consumers have exhausted their financial ability to satisfy their pent-up demand, price gouging will likely be no longer be a viable business model in some industries.
——————-
Exactly what I’m thinking.
As I say many businesses are driving the inflation bus and gouging the clueless customers.
I found this to be the case especially in the Restaurant business.
In fairness, many restaurants are trying to catch up after the lockdowns.
It will be interesting to see if the prices come down after the “inflation” fades.

#77 Capt. Serious on 07.11.22 at 8:10 pm

Can confirm. Lots of people leaving for greener pastures. You know what’s more expensive than giving someone a 10% raise? Letting them leave, leaving the team understaffed, and taking one year plus to hire a replacement and get them up to speed. This is happening across multiple parts of my organization. Talent war is real.

#78 Owl Eyes on 07.11.22 at 8:11 pm

I love how one of the risks is an “own goal” risk: “the T2 gang may screw things up by heaping on fiscal stimulus (like priming housing again)”

Putting that on the shortlist of risk speaks volumes.

#79 AK on 07.11.22 at 8:25 pm

“Have you been in any restaurant anywhere that doesn’t have a “We’re hiring – all positions!” sign in the window?”
================================

My local Dollar Tree, one sign on the window and then another sign on a table with huge fonts just Inside the main doors.

#80 "NUTS!" on 07.11.22 at 8:36 pm

#44 Ohm on 07.11.22 at 5:23 pm
#15 YVRTechGuy

Wow, where do I even begin. There is a reason why we can not keep up with new housing (as expensive as it is) to meet the demands of NET NEW BUYERS. Look around you, all you new is new immigrants with their families , immensely glad to escape the poverty and poor quality of life from their home country. Are we possibly losing a few for greener pastures, sure. But overwhelmingly the immigration is filling our country, not the other way around. Since the beginning of Covid, we’ve hired ~360 new tech-savvy employees. Most from countries they loved, but poor living standards and unsafe environments for their families. I’m tired of Canadians heavily criticizing the quality of living here. Can it be better? Absolutely. But seriously, come on.

#81 45north on 07.11.22 at 8:55 pm

yvr_lurker How about a frank discussion or debate regarding those firms and industries with near-monopolies using the pent-up demand to effectively rapidly increase prices well-over their rising costs; i.e. the supply/demand model of setting prices, and the clear opportunity for price gouging when the supply chain is broken so as to make it more difficult for other firms to enter the market driving prices down (Robert Reich).

talking about firms with near-monopolies let’s talk about Rogers. What a screw-up! So they tried to upgrade their software. It didn’t work. Which meant the entire network across the country was down. So they said let’s hit this tomorrow when everybody’s fresh.

#82 Tom from Mississauga on 07.11.22 at 9:00 pm

100% agree. Everything about that June employment report was OMG. Really cements more hikes.

#83 yvr_lurker on 07.11.22 at 9:13 pm

#81 talking about firms with near-monopolies let’s talk about Rogers. What a screw-up! So they tried to upgrade their software. It didn’t work. Which meant the entire network across the country was down. So they said let’s hit this tomorrow when everybody’s fresh.

I don’t think that they have engaged in any excessive price gouging after the pandemic as compared to their usual very high rates that they have had all along (as compared to other G7 countries where the internet is much cheaper)…sarcastic here. However, their screw-up in implementing the maintenance was eye-popping for many that rely on the tap. For me, I always have a few hundred in the house and can easily revert to cash if need be for a few days. Good idea to have a back-up plan, and for those who want a cash-free economy, it was a rude awakening.

#84 Work and Tumble on 07.11.22 at 9:26 pm

Health Care in Ontario is having a terrible time keeping RN’s and the hospitals are reducing hours or even having to close Emergency departments because their staff shortages are so debilitating.
I don’t think it’s going to get any better soon from what I understand, there are many RNs looking to get out of such terrible working conditions and heavy workload.

#85 yvr_lurker on 07.11.22 at 9:28 pm

#76 Exactly what I’m thinking.
As I say many businesses are driving the inflation bus and gouging the clueless customers.
I found this to be the case especially in the Restaurant business.
In fairness, many restaurants are trying to catch up after the lockdowns.
——

I agree that some restaurants must be trying to catch up from the COVID loses, as from what I have seen some restaurants (Nuba etc..) have raised their prices at least 25%. During the pandemic my wife and I became much better at making interesting meals, and cut down drastically on how many times we’d go out a month for dinner. Although we have gone out a few more times than during COVID, we still have not gone back to our old ways…

#86 Doug t on 07.11.22 at 9:53 pm

Life is short – peeps are waking up and realizing that the soul crushing “work place” is just that SOUL CRUSHING – if you can figure out a way to live and not be part of the system that crushes your spirit ….. well DUH – the clock starts clicking the moment your born and then comes the social brain washing and you either drink the koolaid hard or eventually realize what’s to lose and try something different

#87 Don on 07.11.22 at 9:55 pm

#62 Don

Worry about things that you can control. – Garth

My daughter attends New York University.

This is a great deal of concern for me.

#88 Doug t on 07.11.22 at 9:57 pm

#9 TurnerNation

Keep bringing it buddy

#89 I don't know on 07.11.22 at 9:58 pm

#15 YVRTechGuy on 07.11.22 at 3:12 pm

My experience in the GTA is the opposite. I’ve seen lots of immigrant success stories. We have entire subdivisions built on immigrant families. There will always be people coming and going, but the population trend is clear: up.

Since this comment board will include many people frustrated about home prices, we seem to get many commenters believing the grass is greener elsewhere (it’s not). Truth is people inevitably just find something to complain of, wherever they are.

IDK

#90 DebinVan on 07.11.22 at 9:58 pm

I dunno, top posts on LinkedIn today, “What to do when a job offer is rescinded”.

Also in today’s news re: US job numbers, the public are being misled by talking heads. Big difference between Establishment Survey and the Household Survey. They diverged back in March. Real job growth has declined since March.

Yes more new job starts, but it is people taking on multiple jobs. Regular workers plunge as multiple jobholders has soared. Fewer people working but more people working more than one job, and more people whose primary and secondary jobs are both full-time.

All is not as it seems.

#91 Rvanzo on 07.11.22 at 10:12 pm

This is the start of the inflation spiral. I would know, I’m from Brazil and had to deal with 3,000% inflation. Buckle up, it’s a fun and interesting ride. Canada will not reach hyperinflation, but will see high inflation for a while.

#92 Westcdn on 07.11.22 at 10:20 pm

I fight with God. I have to pick my ass off the ground but I am ready for another go. He/She seems to like me.

My mother would get mad at me. She would call me, you are just like your father. Well not exactly right. I heard a woman say “who have you been listening to” You have to love them.

#93 Nonplused on 07.11.22 at 10:21 pm

“Yeah, wages higher by 5% doesn’t even keep pace with the 7% hike in consumer prices”

Because of taxes, wages can’t really keep up with consumer prices. For example we can guestimate that of a 7% rise in consumer prices, 2% of that is taxes. Increased revenues means increased taxes. That’s just the way it works. If the price goes up 10%, 0.05% is GST. 1.1 percent where the HST is 11%. And so on. Then there are corporate taxes. Then there is the annual municipal tax increase, which is necessary due to, what else? Inflation.

So now a 7% increase in consumer prices has resulted in a 5% wage increase, but that doesn’t mean the worker gets 5% more money, because he too is paying more taxes. So reduce that by his marginal rate. They never seem to adjust the tax brackets that often or fully to reflect inflation. So let’s cut another 2% there. So after tax our worker has 7% inflation in his price of “stuff” but only got a 3% raise after tax. Ya, that’s discouraging.

************************

“Second, this is a big problem. Despite losing 43,000 paid positions in June, the jobless rate crashed to 4.9% – the lowest since they started tracking this stuff fifty years ago. This is considered full or maximum employment. In other words, everybody who actually wants a job can have one. Never before have there been this many openings.”

I’m not sure the economic affect of people being unemployed voluntarily is that much different than involuntarily in terms of slowing the economy, if that is what the BoC is after. After all these people are earning and spending less money, maybe zero. Aren’t they in a way doing the bank’s work for them? So far as I can see the main difference between a person who gets laid off and one who quits is that the person who quits saves the company severance. So ya, if the “great resignation” is really a thing maybe we can have an economic slowdown with “full employment”.

It has to do with the way they measure “full employment”. Once again you have to be careful what you measure. To me, dropping “discouraged workers” from the denominator never made much sense. Why are they discouraged? Maybe things suck so bad they just can’t be arsed to pound the pavement looking for work anymore? Maybe they won’t work at a burger joint until the money in the bank plain runs out? Or maybe the “great retirement” of the boomers is finally here and they don’t see the point of going back to work when they planned to retire in 3 or 4 years anyway? Or maybe they decided to get that master’s degree.

My thinking is that the absolute employment number vs. working age population is a much better number than the so-called “unemployment rate”. If the incentive to work was really there, at least some of those people “not in the workforce” would re-enter it. The current unemployment measure assumes anyone who isn’t working is somehow defective in some way and shouldn’t be counted. The idea they would work if they could or if there were decent job prospects doesn’t factor in to the current measure.

Take for example the current shortage in the trades, which has been around longer than the current problem in the restaurant business. Well, why don’t more people go into the trades? Because it takes training and usually a stint at a technical institute. In other words the prospective employee has to invest his own time and money in his potential future job prospects. But why do that if those prospects appear unreliable? And the government is handing out money and preventing evictions? The incentive just isn’t there.

#94 DJT on 07.11.22 at 10:44 pm

DELETED

#95 Stick this GIG where the sun don't shine! on 07.11.22 at 11:06 pm

Garth,

You think this pandemic didn’t make people rethink their lives?

You think they didn’t realize that time is precious?

You think they want to waste it on gig economy or getting paid nothing while those at the top of the pyramid in corporations rake in the crazy salaries and stock options

You think they want to keep working while politicians and leaders turn the money (the little they earn) into a joke with inflation they ABSOLUTELY caused on purpose?

You think these people want to pay into a system so indebted that there is no chance this debt is ever paid off by their great great grand children?

This is a form of protest.

And if it means we consume less, that’s also a positive.

Let the CEOs do some manual labour…maybe put in a few months as a barista or delivering food on a ebike.

#96 Sail Away on 07.11.22 at 11:21 pm

On today’s Benson run, there were three guys just behind me for the whole run up, so I drained the tank to stay ahead, then on the top they passed by and headed down, and passed me again near the bottom as they were heading up for another rounder.

Oh well, it was Gary and his pals. This is what they do for fun.

http://garyrobbinsrun.com/

#97 Can’t trust this, by M.C. Fibber on 07.12.22 at 12:01 am

#93 Nonplused

So what you’re saying is that the unemployment number we get is as scrubbed and massages as the Realtor HPI Frankenumber?

Maybe unemployment number is where they got the idea?

Yes. Yes it is.

Can’t trust inflation number.
Can’t trust realtor HPI.
Can’t trust unemployment numbers.

Everything is massaged. Too far to call it rigged? We can’t possibly understand raw data…they need to pre-scrub it for us.

The question is…what number(s) can be trusted?

#98 Michael in-north-york on 07.12.22 at 12:30 am

How far will BoC go with the rate increases, if that triggers a recession.

BoC is technically arms-length, isn’t part of the government and doesn’t report to the Prime Minister. But the general public may not understand that structure, the central bank is part of the government in their minds.

T2 runs a minority government. Jagmeet promised to keep him afloat till 2025, but that promise is not legally binding. A long recession would hit the NDP’s core voters harder than anyone else, and Jagmeet might change his mind.

Doesn’t the PM have some indirect mechanisms to alter the BoC policy.

#99 David Goldblum on 07.12.22 at 12:38 am

Don’t want to start something, but, given the past history of ‘untruth’ related to this administration, and barking mad political manipulation of employment and other social statistics overall et al, does anyone really have the confidence to bank on Canadas civil service and partisan media jumbo-fiddlefart offerings? As an investor I’ve trained myself to hold off and wait for the inevitable ‘revisions’. Right?

#100 Tony on 07.12.22 at 1:26 am

Re: #91 Rvanzo on 07.11.22 at 10:12 pm

Inflation should decrease for the rest of this year after the June CPI print comes out in America July 20th. July 20th should be peak inflation for this year.

#101 T-Rev on 07.12.22 at 2:02 am

Comments section is exceptionally poignant tonight, and I think captures the zeitgeist of our current age. People are rebalancing and reprioritizing. If you want workers, you’d better give them an incentive to work for you. Pay, workplace culture, perks, benefits, etc- labor is in high demand and short supply, and the only thing that 90% of people sell is themselves. They need to maximize the price on their one tradeable asset- their labor. If employers can’t afford workers and still be profitable, the invisible hand has a way of taking care of this. Businesses go under, the ones that remain have less competition and raise prices, and can then afford to pay better wages to attract more workers to fill the need.

It’s not what we’re used to, coming from untold decades of surplus labor, but here we are.

#102 maxx on 07.12.22 at 7:00 am

“Employees are in demand, and in control.”

For now.

Let them completely run out of cash and we’ll see where their galactic arrogance takes them.

I very much doubt that Mills and Z’s will succeed in making society over. There may be strength in numbers (again, for now) but certainly not in stupidity.

#103 maxx on 07.12.22 at 7:26 am

@ #8

“But seriously, that can’t account for the bulk of vanished workers … can it?”

Nope. But it can to a large extent account for the bold-face laziness that has bloated on steroids over the past 2+ years.

Let them run out of cash.

#104 jess on 07.12.22 at 7:46 am

https://www.cnn.com/2022/07/11/politics/former-overstock-ceo-patrick-byrne-january-6-committee-meeting/index.html

========
excellent reporting !

A.C. THOMPSON:

….”I go to see J. Alex Halderman, a computer scientist who’s one of the country’s most prominent experts on voting systems. He investigated what happened in Antrim for the state of Michigan, and his analysis found that ASOG’s report was laced with falsehoods.

What do you think of this group that did the analysis in Antrim County, the Allied Security Group?

ALEX HALDERMAN, Prof., University of Michigan:

Frankly, I had never heard of them before, and based on the report that they produced and how many obvious errors and false claims it contains, I don’t have a high opinion of their work.

A.C. THOMPSON:

What did the report say?

ALEX HALDERMAN:

The high-level claim in that report is that the Dominion equipment in Antrim County was somehow engineered deliberately to produce error or to enable fraud. And there’s just no evidence whatsoever of that.

One of the claims in the report is that the Dominion system was using what’s called electronic adjudication, that this was a mode of committing massive fraud in Antrim County. It’s entirely preposterous, because when you actually look at Antrim County, they didn’t use that electronic adjudication feature at all. Antrim County never bought it or installed it.

A.C. THOMPSON:

And they just missed this, or—?

ALEX HALDERMAN:

They were just completely off base. This is a highly technical subject, and you have to actually go in and look at the evidence and understand what it’s telling you. Once you do, it’s pretty clear that this was the result of human errors. But if you are grasping at straws and just trying to find anything that might be used to spin a narrative about fraud, well, I think the public’s trust has been greatly undermined.

https://www.pbs.org/wgbh/frontline/documentary/plot-to-overturn-the-election/transcript/

FRONTLINE and ProPublica trace the hidden sources of misinformation about the 2020 election, demonstrating how a handful of people have had an outsized impact on the current U.S. crisis of democratic legitimacy.

#105 Penny Henny on 07.12.22 at 8:04 am

#57 Stone on 07.11.22 at 6:40 pm

Penny, you go to cash for a few months and then talk about $72,000 in dividends per year? How many times have you done that now, just this year?

/////////////////

I only missed the quarterly dividend for 2 of the 5 banks and it was only one quarterly. But I did account for that in my calculations. Also I was still 55% invested during that time.
As far as setting up a blog, yeah right. Even though I am retired I’ve got better things to do and I am not out to try impress anybody. Hence I post anonymously here.

Mmmmmkay.

#106 Dharma Bum on 07.12.22 at 8:05 am

#41 Victor Liearna

Might as well quit.
———————————————————————————————————

Might as well go for a soda.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MXnTbmPxv5g

#107 Dharma Bum on 07.12.22 at 8:44 am

#51 JSS

I’ve seen a bunch of younger workers leave educated careers to go start small businesses in areas like landscaping, snow removal, sign making, and running food trucks for 8-9 months of the year. They like the freedom and simplicity in some of this work, that in another lifetime, they looked down on.
Overall, there is a lot of depression out there, and it’s mentally burned out a lot of workers. The Covid hangover is a big part of the issue.
——————————————————————————————————-

COVID is merely the catalyst that pushed this crop of workers over the edge.

Every generation of workers, especially longer term tenured workers eventually figure out that working for decades is merely a necessity for survival, and that it pretty much sucks as far as any type of “fulfillment” is concerned. It merely pays one enough to barely get by, if you’re lucky. Eventually, it sucks your soul dry, and all that’s left is fatigue, burnout, exhaustion, and resentment.

Those that do not retire outright, seek solace in the simplicity of menial labour for a few more years, to retain a sense of purpose while working at a low stress task.

It is clearly illustrated in the best move ever made – “Office Space”.

Here’s a clip that sums it all up:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wczkA_cULYk

#108 M on 07.12.22 at 8:46 am

High interest rates + High/Higher unemployment. Are we heading to stagflation?

#109 the Jaguar on 07.12.22 at 9:11 am

Snippet-a-roo from the NP this morning. Interesting take on the markets (yawn), but it strikes me as a metaphor for life these days… Who are these momentum traders, speculators and algorithms? It’s ‘Interest Rate Increase Eve’ today, and jiminy crickets we are going to hold inflation’s head under water until it lies motionless……..++

“Markets are rather fickle these days, reacting quickly and powerfully to any news. So far this year, the developments have predominantly been negative, so perhaps it isn’t surprising that we are off to the worst start in decades.
The problem, however, is that markets appear to be dominated by momentum traders, speculators and algorithms, which are combining to drive exaggerated daily moves, both up and down.

The best way to end this stealth recession is to bring inflation down. If companies just hold fast with earnings growth, the potential for multiple expansion will return again.

“Stocks of high-quality businesses with long-term growth and pricing power look cheap,” (Ackerman).

Playing the long game means not allowing the near-term noise to rattle you: you have to stay the course as an investor, not devolve into gambling. Common sense always wins if given enough time.”++

A delicious morning here in Calgary. At 3428 above sea level the mornings are always cool, despite the heat warning issued by Environment Canada for a 30+ degree day. Full sun. Stampede numbers should burst at the seams this year….so many tourists in town.

Welcome to this small city with a big heart ……..

#110 Douge on 07.12.22 at 9:46 am

If you worry about a 10% or so decline after a 36% gain over the last three years you have lost perspective. Chill. Things will come back. – Garth

That was NOT a “36% gain” Mr. Turner. It was a (fairly predictable) RECOVERY from the massive plop due to Covid.

On the other hand, the 10% drop of late is based on fundamental changes in economic conditions.

Apples to oranges.

Things go up 80% of the time. You say nothing. They go down 20% of the time. You moan. Get a grip. – Garth

#111 Stone on 07.12.22 at 10:01 am

#105 Penny Henny on 07.12.22 at 8:04 am
#57 Stone on 07.11.22 at 6:40 pm

Penny, you go to cash for a few months and then talk about $72,000 in dividends per year? How many times have you done that now, just this year?

/////////////////

I only missed the quarterly dividend for 2 of the 5 banks and it was only one quarterly. But I did account for that in my calculations. Also I was still 55% invested during that time.
As far as setting up a blog, yeah right. Even though I am retired I’ve got better things to do and I am not out to try impress anybody. Hence I post anonymously here.

Mmmmmkay.

———

No worries, grandpa. Not everyone has the same energy level. If you want to sit on the porch all day long in a rocking chair gambling on the stock market and trying to pick fights, you do you, boo. I’ve got lots of energy. And since you haven’t picked up on it, I’m sharing knowledge that can be applied in a replicable, consistent, and profitable manner. It’s not to impress, it’s to share knowledge. I guess gamblers like you don’t get it.

What I can’t seem to understand though is why you’d actually care to even respond to my post in the first place.

Scroll on.

#112 TheDood on 07.12.22 at 10:38 am

#100 Tony on 07.12.22 at 1:26 am
Re: #91 Rvanzo on 07.11.22 at 10:12 pm

Inflation should decrease for the rest of this year after the June CPI print comes out in America July 20th. July 20th should be peak inflation for this year.
____________________________

Even after a rate increase (0.75%) in July, interest rates are still very low. There is a loooong way to go to collar inflation. Several more hikes at least.

#113 Linda on 07.12.22 at 10:39 am

#66 ‘Labour’ – you make a good point about folks being wary of another wave of pathogen suddenly throwing them out of work. Plus one must believe that at least some of those service workers have found new employment in a more stable & hopefully better paying environment. Other commenters have noted that many have chosen to alter their work to accommodate a work life balance. My partner posits that many have learned during Covid to live on less & have chosen to continue doing so rather than return to the ‘rat race’.

Another reason why so many positions are open could be the ‘great retirement’. The peak of the Baby Boom wave was 1957-1959, with over half a million births recorded per year. Presuming those Boomers will retire by age 65 means 1.5 million folks will be leaving the workforce in short order, adding to the labor shortage. One wonders how that will factor in any inflation calculations or if it has been overlooked.

#114 Chris on 07.12.22 at 10:46 am

Hey Garth – seems there is an awful lot of griping in the comments about how Canada is such a terrible place to live, and soon everyone will have left. Maybe a blog comparing Canada to other places will help put things in perspective. (I think every country has problems, some different, but I’m very content right here.) Jobs plentiful, safe, peaceful, lots of opportunities, freedoms galore, natural beauty – so much good stuff. Would be interesting to get your perspective.

#115 Is anybody listening? on 07.12.22 at 11:24 am

Just saw a headline from Marketwatch about people who adopted dogs long before the pandemic bringing them to shelters because they can’t afford them with the inflation. Reminded me of one of my favorite economic jokes. A recession is when your neighbor loses their job, a depression is when you lose your job, but a real panic, is when your wife loses her job!

#116 Dragonfly58 on 07.12.22 at 11:27 am

Canada IS a great place for those who are financially secure. Probably one of the best in fact , but specifically for that group.
But that still leaves many Canadians on the outside of the secure and better group. For that very large group there is a diminishing chance of making it over the threshold of financial security and membership in the secure group.
That is the crux, The old stand by of a good education , and hard work over the decades in a decent career increasingly isn’t bringing Canadians into that secure group.
It now takes that career, plus very frugal living to put some money aside, plus a very disciplined investment strategy, plus at least a few decades of following this formula, plus all this not in the Lower Mainland or the GTA { to keep living costs at a level that does not eat your income over time} , plus at least a little luck to pull off.
The likelihood of all these factors working out and lining up grows more remote with each passing year.
That’s why many are questioning the whole Canadian thing.
More and more third world with each passing decade.
Some at the top enjoying the good life, most just getting by as best they can.

#117 Shawn on 07.12.22 at 11:32 am

Linda and the Great Retirement

#113 Linda on 07.12.22 at 10:39 am
Another reason why so many positions are open could be the ‘great retirement’. The peak of the Baby Boom wave was 1957-1959, with over half a million births recorded per year. Presuming those Boomers will retire by age 65 means 1.5 million folks will be leaving the workforce in short order, adding to the labor shortage. One wonders how that will factor in any inflation calculations or if it has been overlooked.

*******************************
500,000 births per year 1957-1959?

I’m 1960, but a bunch of the ’57-’59 are already dead. And a whole lot are already retired or never even entered the workforce.

Still, you make a good point, a lot of retirements. For those with pensions and RRSPs (sadly, mostly the same people), retirement at 60 is easy.

#118 IHCTD9 on 07.12.22 at 11:41 am

#51 JSS on 07.11.22 at 6:16 pm

There are a lot of depressed people out there. Especially in the white collar office professions. I work with them all the time…

…I’ve seen a bunch of younger workers leave educated careers to go start small businesses in areas like landscaping, snow removal, sign making, and running food trucks for 8-9 months of the year. They like the freedom and simplicity in some of this work, that in another lifetime, they looked down on.
Overall, there is a lot of depression out there, and it’s mentally burned out a lot of workers. The Covid hangover is a big part of the issue.
___

Yep. Our last family Doc quit. Not his job, – his profession. He started a landscaping company and does seasonal work now. Tough to get a Doc working full time these days, and I don’t blame them. There is just no joy left in some of these professions anymore.

Everyone needs a task that gets the happy chemicals flowing. If not, you’ll end up another mental health casualty.

My job doesn’t do it either, but work around the home front does. Planning personal projects does. Hobbies do. Exercise does. Frankly, just thinking about getting out of Southern Ontario has been getting the dopamine flowing lately.

Many kids these days do not do hands on projects or physically active hobbies anymore where they might find salvation from depression.

#119 IHCTD9 on 07.12.22 at 1:02 pm

#114 Chris on 07.12.22 at 10:46 am
Hey Garth – seems there is an awful lot of griping in the comments about how Canada is such a terrible place to live, and soon everyone will have left.
___

Most folks griping about Canada’s prospects come from a better era in Canadian history. They see the decline first hand and in real time.

Canada has experienced a massive decline in the potential prosperity of her Citizenry. It’s projected to get worse…

https://bcbc.com/insights-and-opinions/oecd-predicts-canada-will-be-the-worst-performing-advanced-economy-over-the-next-decade-and-the-three-decades-after-that

https://betterdwelling.com/young-canadians-wont-have-the-same-opportunity-as-past-generations-oecd-forecast/

#120 SunShowers on 07.12.22 at 1:11 pm

“We need to impoverish people by making them unemployed and ushering in a significant recession so we can stop inflation from impoverishing people.”

Makes perfect sense.

#121 IHCTD9 on 07.12.22 at 1:17 pm

#116 Dragonfly58 on 07.12.22 at 11:27 am
Canada IS a great place for those who are financially secure. Probably one of the best in fact , but specifically for that group.
But that still leaves many Canadians on the outside of the secure and better group. For that very large group there is a diminishing chance of making it over the threshold of financial security and membership in the secure group.
___

The fortunate group built a life prior to Trudeau #2 and got off the ground before the GFC. Success in Canada is strongly connected to age – because we had solid leadership in the past, while today we have Trudeau.

Our house cost 1.37X our income in 2001. Today it would cost 5X our income. Median household income earners in the area would need to shell out 10X income. Federally there was 600 some Billion or so in debt from 2000-2015. Then ballooned to 1.3 Trillion 2015-2022. Kids going forward will need to make huge incomes, but live like students in order to even approach the lifestyles us X’ers and Boomers enjoyed.

Everything changed in 2015. Everything.

#122 Ohm on 07.12.22 at 6:19 pm

#52 ElGatoNeroYVR

I agree with you! My parents immigrated to Canada; have lived here for over 55 yrs.

I just passed on what I have observed. These are people who have lived here 20 yrs plus; do not shoot the messenger.

I do wonder what incentives are being offered in other countries that want to make people move and settle here only to realize what was said is a complete lie?

It is hurting Canada much more then where they originated from. They sell everything and live like royalty in there country of origin when they return. I am sure that everyone of us have come across families that have just given up on Canada.