Stay centred

.
DOUG  By Guest Blogger Doug Rowat

 

We recently received an urgent email from our client Susan regarding her portfolio: “It would be very helpful to know if anything is being done to at least curtail the bleeding.”

In other words, waiting for the market to recover is torture, do something.

Oddly, this email got me thinking about soccer. Specifically, penalty kicks.

Researcher Michael Bar-Eli, in an influential 2007 paper, examined goalkeeper reactions during penalty kicks across several elite soccer leagues. For those unaware of how soccer penalty kicks work, the team awarded the kick places a kicker 11 metres in front of the opposition goalkeeper and the kicker’s then given a free shot on net. Because of the short distance, goalkeepers have little chance to react to ball direction and are at a significant disadvantage to the kicker, who scores better than 80% of the time. As a result, goalkeepers must make a somewhat random decision ahead of the kick as to whether to jump left, jump right or stay put.

What Bar-Eli discovered is that it’s the overwhelming norm for goalkeepers to take action (i.e., jump left or right) versus staying put; however, after accounting for the goalkeeper’s failure to actually stop the ball by jumping left or right (the kicker has the additional advantage of going high left, low right, etc.) the goalkeeper decision with the highest probability of success is to simply remain stationary (the “center” jump direction, tabled below). Essentially, take no action.

Chances of stopping a soccer penalty kick

Source: Michael Bar-Eli

Even though the probability of saving the kick significantly favours remaining at “center”, in only 6.3% of the cases did goalkeepers actually choose this option. Why?

Emotion. It’s emotionally unpalatable for us to take no action. Simply put, we feel worse when we do nothing. This behavioural tendency is referred to as action bias, which is our inclination to do something—anything—because it feels better than sitting still. We prefer flurries of activity rather than disciplined calm, even if this activity undermines our success.

I don’t present this information to suggest that doing nothing is always the correct decision. It’s not. According to Bar-Eli’s number crunching, goalkeepers, in fact, should actually only select the “center” option 28.7% of the time—not every time—for optimal success. But the point is, the ‘no action’ option should still have been employed by goalkeepers almost 5x more often than it was.

Consider this as it pertains to your investment decisions. Our tendency as investors is to, similar to soccer goalkeepers, force activity simply because it feels better than a wait-and-see approach. But none other than Charlie Munger cautioned against our constant impulse to take action: “[There’s] discipline in avoiding just doing any damn thing just because you can’t stand inactivity.”

Action bias (often in conjunction with overconfidence) is also a key reason why frequent trading erodes performance. I’ve highlighted in the past the separate work of researchers Brad Barber and Terrance Odean who looked at a vast number of investor trades across a large US discount brokerage during the 1990s and concluded that the highest turnover portfolios had an average annualized return of only 11.4%, but the lowest turnover portfolios had a significantly better return of 18.5%.

It’s often difficult to imagine that we could “curtail the bleeding” by doing less or even nothing, but when markets are moving wildly around us as they have been this year, never underestimate the power of simply standing still.

Doug Rowat, FCSI® is Portfolio Manager with Turner Investments and Senior Investment Advisor, Private Client Group, Raymond James Ltd.

 

73 comments ↓

#1 RowatNation aka Prince Polo on 07.09.22 at 9:02 am

Rather than try to time the markets, one should take this opportunity to “strategically rebalance”!

The worst choice would be to cash out and then stay at the centre of the goal (aka do nothing with pocketfuls of $ – at least you’ll be popular at the bar).

#2 Dharma Bum on 07.09.22 at 9:05 am

“It would be very helpful to know if anything is being done to at least curtail the bleeding.” ~ Susan
——————————————————————————————————

Susan is a rookie.

Rookies can be so annoying.

Alas, we must teach them, groom them, and train them.

One day, with experience, she will become a seasoned investor and stop fretting.

Takes time and patience.

#3 Felix on 07.09.22 at 9:28 am

Happy Feline Saturday!

(Yeah, Thanks for nothing, damned Rogers internet)

Did you know:

If Rogers appointed cats to its board, it would be a competent organization not subjecting its customers to chaos like this.

#4 Wuhan we got y'all in check on 07.09.22 at 9:46 am

Reminds me of that Charles Schwabb study of their best performing retail discount brokerage accounts done some years ago. Most belonged to dead people who obviously never traded.

#5 Garth of Izar on 07.09.22 at 9:49 am

Remember kids, blaming Rogers is like blaming the shark for eating the swimmer. The shark and the corporation are just doing what’s in its nature.

Blame your own traitorous criminal corrupt puppet government. The CRTC can now be labeled a domestic terrorists group.

Only Canadians are stupid enough to put up with the privatization of the entire communications network.

I can’t wait till Rogers and Shaw become one company.

#6 Quantum Leap on 07.09.22 at 9:56 am

The Cryptopocalypse is coming!

https://arstechnica.com/information-technology/2022/07/nist-selects-quantum-proof-algorithms-to-head-off-the-coming-cryptopocalypse/

#7 Diamond Dog on 07.09.22 at 9:56 am

I like Charlie. I don’t agree with everything he has to say, but I don’t agree with everything I have to say. That said, Charlie’s right more than most:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NYDlJasjd1c&t=487s

Have to hand it to Hathoway:

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Natural-Gas/Did-Warren-Buffett-Anticipate-A-Bull-Run-In-Natural-Gas.html

That’s patience for you, patience and recognition of intrinsic value. One of the teachings I like from Munger is use the power of inversion or “argue both sides”. Ask not just what can go right but what can go wrong.

Practicing inversion or arguing both sides helps us tremendously in getting rid of bias through seeing it from several perspectives. In politics, arguing left AND right allows us to see the middle and the middle is often where the future goes. Same holds true for intrinsic value. Once established, keen investors look for outliers and go from there and if it’s outside of our wheelhouse, patience is a virtue. Wait it out until the right opportunity comes along and you are sure… like Hathoway’s major buy into Nat gas when Nat gas was selling below the cost of production and assets were selling below cost.

#8 Linda on 07.09.22 at 10:03 am

Doug, excellent post. Also gives me a valid argument as to why procrastination is actually a winning strategy:)

#9 Dominoes Lining Up on 07.09.22 at 10:19 am

Doug, nice analogy, so I am curious……

If you were a Rogers shareholder in stocks or ETFs right now, would you go left, right, or run the hell away?

There’s an elephant in the room now, all the financial costs of this outage.

I was in a few shops and food take out places yesterday. All of them had pissed off customers who could not use debit and did not have cash. Lots of them walking out, probably hundreds of dollars in losses each location.

My local corner store guy told me his sales were down by 50% Friday due to these issues, close to $1000.

The Weeknd had to postpone his concert. Other events last night had huge problems at check in. Gas stations too, not taking debit.

Here’s another wildcard – across Ontario and other provinces, lottery terminals were shut down and access to online purchases was limited. No chance to buy tickets for a $30 million jackpot, that was won in BC. So we have hundreds of thousands waking up this morning to realize that their regular Lotto Max replay tickets could have won them $20, $500 or more if Rogers OLG infrastructure was working, but now they’re SOL.

Then there’s all the wfh employees who may have disputes, pay cuts etc.. with employers since they could not log in yesterday.

This all looks like a perfect opportunity for class action lawsuits that could put Rogers in the red, big time.

Where’s WUL when we need his free legal advice?

#10 Government Debt Question on 07.09.22 at 10:50 am

Thanks for the blog Garth
Thanks for the post Doug

Just curious your thoughts on inflating away government debt.

On this blog it has been mentioned many times if you invest in a 2 percent GIC and inflation is 8 percent, at the end of the year your $100 is worth 94 dollars.

Now is the reverse also not true ?

If the government borrowed $100 @ 2 percent and inflation is 8 percent. Then in real terms at the end of the year government debt is only $94.
I understand the government will be refinancing its debt at higher levels, but they did lock in 40 percent of total debt with ten year maturity or more.

https://www.canada.ca/en/department-finance/services/publications/economic-fiscal-snapshot/debt-management-strategy-2020-21.html

My point our debt while a staggering number in real terms is being deflated lower each year.

Thoughts and Comments welcome

#11 Phylis on 07.09.22 at 10:50 am

28.7% of the time, it works every time.

#12 Ponzius Pilatus on 07.09.22 at 10:57 am

Whenever you draw up an action plan, doing nothing should always be an option.
In this case it should be assigned 28%.

#13 The Original Jake on 07.09.22 at 11:07 am

Excellent, well said! So simple but so difficult for many to do.

#14 Flop… on 07.09.22 at 11:12 am

As I demonstrate on here daily, Australians are not very good listeners.

Robax, this Aussie goalkeeper had too many Red Bulls and couldn’t keep still, it worked out as he put enough doubt into the penalty takers mind, to defeat Peru and send them into the World Cup in Qatar.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=evqU2SPnaoA

I’m actually an England supporter, via Manchester United , it seemed only natural to follow the same players back in the Paul Scholes, David Beckham, Nicky Butt, Teddy Sheringham, and my favourite at the time, Andy Cole.

A few days before I was due to go and see Manchester United play Newcastle at Old Trafford, they decided to sell my favourite player to Blackburn Rovers, after touring the museum, which I got to see all the trophies from the previous year’s treble, I went to the team shop and all the Andy Cole shirts were in the discount bin.

Manchester United has fallen a long way since then, our latest signing, Christian Eriksen, actually nearly died a couple of years ago on the soccer pitch after suffering a cardiac arrest, apparently his heart stopped beating for 5 minutes before being resuscitated.

We can’t attract top tier young talent anymore, only nearly retired and nearly dead.

On the plus side, this guy did listen to Doug Rowat and just stayed still, and didn’t move for a little while…

M48BC

#15 Robert B on 07.09.22 at 11:13 am

Re-evaluating the portfolio every 6 months or so is probably the best chance for success. The economic business cycle changes and thus the portfolio should change as well.
Question for you is the Preferred component was supposed to protect the portfolio in times of higher interest rates. It spill off an income but thats about it.
I have not seen the protection that it was supposed to offer in the portfolio from higher interest rates.

Your comment is welcomed.

#16 Shawn on 07.09.22 at 11:17 am

Was it a former Toronto Mayor who said:

“Don’t just do something! Stand There!” ?

Well if so, Google says he was not the first but that’s where I heard it first I believe.

#17 Shawn on 07.09.22 at 11:20 am

Monty Python says:

20% down? That’s barely a flesh wound.

Call me when it’s 50% down you newbie investors. When you’ve crawled into a fetal position and stayed in bed for a week whimpering. Hilarious. I can just picture all ya all.

#18 Barry on 07.09.22 at 11:22 am

You buy a house with great tenants who WANT to give you more rent every year … but the property drops in market value. So what? Within how many years of rising rent from tenants who want to give you the lucre will you recover most of your original investment? I have … with dividend growth stocks. Over 40 years of investing i’ve recovered WAY more than I ever put into the stock market with yields of 60% on my original capital every year. No brainers – Enbridge Fortis, TD Bank etc. Best investment ever? CN Rail. No bonds!

#19 Dominoes Lining Up on 07.09.22 at 11:23 am

Cancel Culture time for Rogers?

Anybody with me?

I’ve been checking websites for other providers this morning. Web traffic is way up. I’ve had years of half-assed customer experience, so maybe now’s the time.

(They say the ‘vast majority’ of accounts have been restored, but mine are still clicking on and off and having delays)

Q: How many Rogers subscribers are likely to cancel and switch providers after this debacle?

5%?

10%

15+%

What will this do to the bottom line?

My suggestions:

1.Cancel Rogers
2.Get a better, cheaper service (there’s more than a couple)
3.Short sell Rogers stock (the gains may end up paying for your internet service for a decade, lol!)

And don’t forget, it’s easy to sign up for any class action lawsuits. You’ll probably get at least $100 – hey, that’s almost a day’s liquor money for us deplorables!

#20 the Jaguar on 07.09.22 at 11:30 am

It’s Wu Wei, Doug. It works like this:

The Tao Te Ching, written in China around 600 BC, first articulated the idea of wu wei. ”Do that which consists in taking no action and order will prevail,” the book explains. The idea is that we should stop trying to force action and get comfortable doing less.

Susan shouldn’t exhaust herself with worry about a moment in time that represents the ‘ebb’ because the ‘flow’ is always around the corner. Hand wringing is such a waste of time and energy.

Or as a wise man (Clemenza) once said ” Leave the gun, take the canolli”.

#21 Chris on 07.09.22 at 11:33 am

Working for a financial institution, I always wonder why guys in suits feel the need to compare corporate decisions to sports, or in this case how to manage your portfolio.

#22 Andrewski on 07.09.22 at 11:37 am

Spot on Doug.
As far as Rogers outage yesterday, what, retailers don’t accept Crypto? So much for a cashless society!

#23 604Sam on 07.09.22 at 11:47 am

Excellent analogy, really enjoyed this post.

On a side note (and as an admitted layman) I’ve always felt that the penalty kick distance is WAY too close to the goal. They should follow the lead of the NFL when they increased the distance required for extra point field goals. Make the game more interesting!

#24 Doug Rowat on 07.09.22 at 12:32 pm

#23 604Sam on 07.09.22 at 11:47 am
Excellent analogy, really enjoyed this post.

On a side note (and as an admitted layman) I’ve always felt that the penalty kick distance is WAY too close to the goal. They should follow the lead of the NFL when they increased the distance required for extra point field goals. Make the game more interesting!

—-

NHL shoot-out specialists score maybe 40% of the time. Much better drama.

—Doug

#25 Chameleon on 07.09.22 at 12:34 pm

Yo Felix,

You think more dogs or cats are named Roger(s)?

#26 PVS on 07.09.22 at 12:51 pm

Well said Doug!

Interesting, engaging and informative post. It is indeed difficult to remain still when the winds of change keep coming. A word to the wise should be sufficient but needs to be repeated.

#27 Søren Angst on 07.09.22 at 1:00 pm

never underestimate the power of simply standing still.
– Doug

True.

Caveat…

TWTR v. Elon.

#28 Victor Llearna on 07.09.22 at 1:14 pm

Victor Learn a valuable lesson today. About football. When I played in net I always lunged left or right depending on the player taking the kick

#29 Joseph R. on 07.09.22 at 1:16 pm

What will this do to the bottom line?

My suggestions:

1.Cancel Rogers
2.Get a better, cheaper service (there’s more than a couple)
3.Short sell Rogers stock (the gains may end up paying for your internet service for a decade, lol!)

————————————–

Client: “If you don’t compensate me for your outage, I will drop my service contract and go to Bell!”

Rogers Rep.: “Ok. See you later.”

In 6 months for now:

Client:” If you don’t compensate me for your outage, I will drop my service contract and go to Rogers!”

Bell Rep.: ” Ok. See you later.”

#30 Steerage on 07.09.22 at 1:17 pm

Dead people make the best investors… the more you rub the soap the smaller it gets..
Just do nothing…buy when you have money.

#31 Damifino on 07.09.22 at 1:17 pm

I’ve got a credit card and a cash card I use fairly often (especially since the start of the pandemic) but I always try keep about a hundred bucks in my wallet in various denominations.

It’s an old habit, I guess. I’m always a bit nervous to be walking around with “no money at all”. I don’t see cards as actual money, although those thrusting out handheld “point of sale” terminals certainly do.
—————————————–

Lately, I’ve been thinking about “schadenfreude” as it relates to the energy cancelling tree huggers of Germany. The word is often defined as taking pleasure at the misfortune of others. That is quite inaccurate. Here’s a better description:

“I told you so, you silly twits! What part of ‘sacrificing your modern, advanced country’s essential energy supplies in the pursuit of unworkable green fantasies will lead to heartache and misery for millions’ didn’t you understand!”

And I take no joy whatsoever in that outcome.

#32 DON on 07.09.22 at 1:23 pm

Good stats on soccer penalties.

The younger goalie’s are more eager to move to show that action was taken in a lost cause. Either the player misses or the goalie gets really really lucky. The player taking the shot doesn’t want to miss and endure the embarassment of being the only one that misses a sure advantage. So the player taking the shot shoots away from the goal tender. Now, if the shot taker did his/her reasearch on the goal tender’s past actions, the shot may be directed down the middle in which case the goalie can only use air born feet to save the day. I guess it comes down to who does the required amount of reasearch and gains the knowledge to make the right play when everyone else is just taking action.

Just started playing men’s over 40 soccer. I realized old goal tenders don’t flail around for risk of injury, better to stay on your feet and walk away to play again next week.

#33 Sail Away on 07.09.22 at 1:25 pm

Thanks Doug, good post.

Our core portfolio is pretty well set and added to regularly although more at dips, less when hitting all time highs. No selling here. Positions change barely ever.

But then extra cash is used to practice other strategies: arbitrage, boom-bust, covered calls, sector plays, Tesla. Arbitrage has been lucrative. More turnover in this area, but not for the goal of capital preservation.

When the game is in play, fluctuation happens and all you can do is endure. Patience.

#34 Malicious Non-buying on 07.09.22 at 1:40 pm

Diamond Dog, you suck!

Not only is my lady using malicious non-buying as excuse to shop and spend, for the last 3 days when I eat watermelon, I think to myself…in China, I could buy a home with this! In fact, I’d be expected to, instead of wasting it by just eating it, OR ELSE!

#35 Bezengy on 07.09.22 at 1:46 pm

#7 Diamond Dog on 07.09.22 at 9:56 am

…….arguing both sides helps us tremendously in getting rid of bias through seeing it from several perspectives.

——————————-

I think this is the failing of most DIY investors. They just don’t hear the other side of the argument, or tend to ignore those who don’t share their opinions.

#36 James on 07.09.22 at 1:48 pm

Dominoes – I think you’re on to something, Rogers may not do well.

Also, I recall that Rogers owns Fido for cell phones. That was all shut down as well. So it would make sense to see a lot of people bail out of Fido soon, since they want a usable backup phone when the next disaster happens. That will further hurt Rogers income base.

Not too many eggs in one basket.

#37 Bdwy on 07.09.22 at 2:01 pm

Elon musk backs out of buying Twitter.

He realized he can get it for free on the app store.

#38 Linda on 07.09.22 at 2:12 pm

#9 ‘Dominoes’ – as a society, we rely on technology to work in order to go about our daily business. However, that reliance comes at a cost. In this case, when it isn’t working for whatever reason it quickly becomes apparent that we are virtual prisoners of the cyber world. I’ve been in line at the grocery store when the terminals cease working a couple of times now. By sheer luck I happened to have sufficient cash on me to pay for my groceries – I was planning on a farmer’s market expedition later that day where cash is king – & on the second occasion was permitted to write a cheque since I have that very old fashioned tool in my wallet. Otherwise I’d have been SOL like the majority of the customers in the store.

I’d add that in these challenging times there may be a resurgence of ‘cash only’ signs. It isn’t only customers who are struggling to keep the lights on.

#39 Barb on 07.09.22 at 2:38 pm

…or narrow the goalposts.
Grin

#40 wallflower on 07.09.22 at 2:41 pm

I love doing nothing.
It is my entire retirement plan.
Did WAY too much pre-retirement.
Time for nothing, now.
What does nothing look like?
Ahhhhh, sleep whenever… eat whenever… take some action-oriented decision, whenever…
Been doing this now 5 years and it just keeps getting better!

All those people who micromanage everything and litter their calendar with appointments and things to do… nah, just not into it.
That was Before Life. Now, Life is for Living.

#41 TurnerNation on 07.09.22 at 2:47 pm

Mainstream media is catching on. All the (former) First World Countries fell, that cold week March 2020.

“Sky News Australia – 2.6M subscribers
Sky News host Rowan Dean says the Netherlands seems to be sliding into dictatorship under Prime Minister Mark Rutte ”
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sAm1dww6SdA

—— Comrades it will be a cold winter in some prefectures this year. Your decadent First World Ways must end. We are at war your know.

“Germany’s largest landlord to reduce heating for tenants to save energy”
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/germanys-largest-landlord-to-reduce-heating-for-tenants-to-save-energy/ar-AAZkfc7

————

Nailed it since Q3 2020 — has it become any better now?:

#164 TurnerNation on 09.30.20 at 10:07 am
The more you obsess over ‘cases’ the more you give up your freedoms. We’re coming up to 8 months now. Then 10, then 12. I’d posted in April this will last well into 2021.
Cases Cases Cases. Don your sodden Freedom Masks and hunker down; freedoms ain’t coming back. Did they after Sept 11th? No.

#42 Mike in Airdrie on 07.09.22 at 3:03 pm

I like the quote “your portfolio is like a bar soap the more you touch it the smaller it gets”.

#43 Arctic Gringo: Qalunaaq on 07.09.22 at 3:06 pm

Speaking of balance or centred…Nunavut’s weather equals out the hot and humid weather of the Caribbean islands, all without the hurricanes and tropical storms.

Related to this, Happy Nunavut Day.

I also recall Garth interviewing Nunavut’s first M.P. – Nancy Kiretak-Lindell – on Garth’s MPTV some moons ago. Its rather ironic that all former and current M.P.’s still field these same types of questions 23 years later.

Test your knowledge, post your score:

https://www.cbc.ca/kids/quizzes/how-much-do-you-know-about-nunavut

The kiddos should do fine. Worry for Ontarioans and BC’ers’ answers.

#44 Steerage on 07.09.22 at 3:08 pm

Shooters should also just shoot it down middle…but they don’t very often for fear of looking a goof if goalie doesn’t move.

#45 Stone on 07.09.22 at 3:09 pm

Essentially, take no action.

———

Can’t agree more. No changes since March 2020 to my B&D portfolioadding except adding a small 3% MFT ETF position. The result: a return of 11.14% in 2020 and 20.70% in 2021. Even though 2022 is a negative year so far, my B&D overall outperforms most everything else out there.

I am surprised though how quiet everyone is regarding preferred shares like ZPR. It felt like everyone was hitting the panic button on prefs.

https://www.fomotina.com/my-portfolio-asset-allocation-part-3-zpr/

#46 Doug Rowat on 07.09.22 at 3:14 pm

#15 Robert B on 07.09.22 at 11:13 am

Question for you is the Preferred component was supposed to protect the portfolio in times of higher interest rates. It spill off an income but thats about it.
I have not seen the protection that it was supposed to offer in the portfolio from higher interest rates.

Your comment is welcomed.

—-

Sometimes recession fears trump the potential for higher dividends. That being said, Canadian preferred shares haven’t performed any worse than major bond indices this year (that hold ostensibly safer securities) and I also don’t think the market’s appreciating the full potential of the dividend increases that are coming down the pipe because of the much higher Government of Canada 5-year bond yields, which have jumped threefold in less than a year.

—Doug

#47 espressobob on 07.09.22 at 3:29 pm

Weak hands folding, yup that never gets old. Experience is buying those positions with relish. Fear is a beautiful thing.

Loading up on the Downside takes guts, while newbies will learn the reality of this game when they realize selling should only be done when it’s a profit.

#48 Pic Attribution on 07.09.22 at 3:34 pm

The illustration pic is instantly identifiable to enthusiasts by the distinctive lighting style as something from the portfolio of professional photographer Joel Grimes.

Excellent instructor, true mastery of light.

Just thought I’d mention it, dunno where you sourced it.

https://www.joelgrimes.com

#49 Ordinary Blog Dog on 07.09.22 at 4:28 pm

Thanks for the reassurance that staying centered wrt ones portfolio is still a good idea. I know this in my head, but hard to practice in my heart. I suspect there is a corallary here of some sort – don’t let soccer goalies manage your investment portfolio. They are too twitchy or reactive, something.

#50 Quintilian on 07.09.22 at 5:01 pm

“highest turnover portfolios had an average annualized return of only 11.4%, but the lowest turnover portfolios had a significantly better return of 18.5%.”

Doug, you have cause and effect confused.

The better returns are because the choice of investment was arrived at by better and thoughtful research in the first place thereby, leading to fewer adjustments later on.

“Stock pickers” basically guess and are too lazy and undereducated.

#51 Ustabe on 07.09.22 at 5:23 pm

#43 Arctic Gringo: Qalunaaq on 07.09.22 at 3:06 pm

Your score is 8 out of 10

Wow, what an amazing score! You sure know a lot about Nunavut.

Why would you worry about BC-ers? I’ve actually driven into Nunavut. There is a winter road just east of the Park that is east of Yellowknife. I crept along, past the rudimentary gate until my GPS said I was in Nunavut, immediately turned around and went back to a real road. That winter road leads to a diamond mine with zero inhabitants along the way. It gets pretty chewed up in the final days of spring melt, so I wouldn’t recommend it unless you can self recover.

You are approaching the tree line there so just bushes to winch on, you need proper ground anchors instead. Fun trip to do when young, younger than me now at any rate. Harsh country, climate and living. Much respect for those who do.

#52 DJT on 07.09.22 at 6:33 pm

Anyone notice Rogers is way faster than Bell?

Rogers uses Collision-Based Access technology which faster but less reliable.
Bell uses Controlled Access technology, which is slower but more reliable.

You get what you pay for.

#53 Dr V on 07.09.22 at 6:33 pm

D-Ro – interesting post. I too am puzzling a little over
my non-reg portfolio. Have a little cash left, but you want that to either (a) live on so you dont have to sell
anything and/or (b) buy stuff on sale, which of course happens at the same time! And if it all goes up – winner!

Further to some of my earlier musings over EVs, the grid, and energy in general, here is a take from David
Suzuki. Make sure to read it through and note what he says really has to be done to save the environment.

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/drive/mobility/article-we-need-much-more-infrastructure-david-suzuki-on-the-challenges-his/

#54 Grunt on 07.09.22 at 6:35 pm

TI & Doug getting scratches. Had to bark back “patience pays.”

#55 Elon Fanboy on 07.09.22 at 6:41 pm

Lol, so it looks like Rogers deleted itself off the internet yesterday in a botched software update, took down all the major IP routes to its network (BGP IP routing protocol for us nerds). Reminds me of Facebook accidentally deleting its own domain.

#56 Ponzius Pilatus on 07.09.22 at 6:48 pm

#21 Chris on 07.09.22 at 11:33 am
Working for a financial institution, I always wonder why guys in suits feel the need to compare corporate decisions to sports, or in this case how to manage your portfolio.
———————
Nothing to with sports.
In any decision making exercise, always calculate the probability distribution of multiple outcomes.
When I worked for a Bank, we used Monaco (Stochastic) Simulation Software to track how different interest rate scenarios would affect balance sheet and interest risk profile.
Worked like a charm.

#57 Shirl Clarts on 07.09.22 at 6:55 pm

Regarding the Rogers outage, it appears to have triggered the age old complaint for more competition. Ask yourself how can we have a fourth player when the government takes billions for access to spectrum. The government is good at pinning the blame on “the big telcos” when they are in fact the problem. Too much regulation!

#58 TurnerNation on 07.09.22 at 6:57 pm

Get ready for more Permanent Rolling Economic and Social Lockdowns THIS FALL. Until 2025.
You will once again be under house arrest in your million dollar home or kando.
But you will enjoy such health.
All the Former First World Countries are going down.

The soft sell begins:

.Epidemiologist warns of ‘serious situation’ by fall if COVID infections aren’t brought under control (cbc.ca)

.NYC returns to ‘high’ COVID level as Adams admin gives conflicting answers on test site closures (gothamist.com)

.NYC officials recommend masks indoors, near crowds due to COVID surge (axios.com)

.Confused about mixed messaging for 4th COVID doses? You’re not alone (globalnews.ca)

.Vaccines not causing unexplained deaths in Alberta, authorities say (calgary.ctvnews.ca)
—-
—-
We almost back to normal around the world. Other PM’s are quitting or assasinated. Nothing to see here folks.

.Sri Lankan PM agrees to quit in biggest political turmoil since economic collapse (cp24.com)

#59 Ponzius Pilatus on 07.09.22 at 6:57 pm

#41 TN

“Germany’s largest landlord to reduce heating for tenants to save energy”
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/germanys-largest-landlord-to-reduce-heating-for-tenants-to-save-energy/ar-AAZkfc7
————————-
That’s the trend, folks.
No more wasting energy.
I’ve always got my inside temperature at 19 degrees.
No sweat. Pun intended.

#60 Chatham Chick on 07.09.22 at 7:40 pm

Well said, Doug. Great angle. One of the hardest things is to do nothing and be patient!

#61 Ponzius Pilatus on 07.09.22 at 7:58 pm

Correction to #56
Monaco Simulation should be Monte Carlo Simulation.
Makes sense, named after a Casino.

#62 Diamond Dog on 07.09.22 at 9:36 pm

#34 Malicious Non-buying on 07.09.22 at 1:40 pm

Quite funny. Perspective sometimes hurts, got to make light of it. :)

#35 Bezengy on 07.09.22 at 1:46 pm

I think this is the failing of most DIY investors. They just don’t hear the other side of the argument, or tend to ignore those who don’t share their opinions. – Bezengy

That’s it, generally. There’s more to it of course, all successful investors have to know their way around balance sheets, market cap potential, share dilution potential, recognize intrinsic value in say a resource or a tech, potential market share or lack there of etc. and really know the competition (which takes research and experience) but once you’ve gotten the lay of the land, it comes down to getting rid of bias’s to wit, argue both sides.

How will the investment do during boom AND bust, for example. It’s the only way we can keep from getting high on our own supply so to speak, arguing both sides because we are human and we do have bias’s even when we think we’ve addressed them.

When I look back, my failures not just in investing or in political arguments but with life itself, relationships with people and God or failing to find solutions to problems, it really does come back to not seeing it from multiple points of view (Left right middle at a minimum, the 10 directions in the book of Abraham (ref.Kabballah), I could go on). The power of inversion or arguing both sides if well practiced, really does help cut through most of the noise.

#63 Freebie on 07.10.22 at 1:08 am

Frankly, I’m loving the Summer Swoon. I hope everybody forgets that the market is soft at this time of year, always is, so please puke up more of my favorites at low prices. Waiting is torture. Do something !!!

#64 willworkforpickles on 07.10.22 at 1:36 am

DELETED

#65 The Awakened One on 07.10.22 at 2:26 am

Great read Doug!
Nice use of statistic and an easy-to-understand example.
I sure learn something useful out of this. Thank you.

#66 Ogdoad on 07.10.22 at 7:08 am

Action bias. So that’s my problem…..

I’ll nap it off.

Og

#67 JacqueShellacque on 07.10.22 at 8:45 am

One problem here though Doug is that if everyone realizes or supposes that a goalie should play center on every kick, then kickers will realize that and not shoot there. This demonstrates the limitations of these smarty-pants statistical analyses – they’re generally static. Worse, more allegedly complicated ones that look at the arithmetic average of CAGR over a time period effectively assume a timeless world, as if the sequences to get to that CAGR # occurred all at once. But we live in a world of sequence, one thing follows another. Getting slammed with a 20% drop at the end of a period is very different from having that at the beginning, even for the same CAGR. This is not to go against your core message, I’m very anti-interventionist and realize that the centralized systems of the developed world are designed to do stuff without knowing what or why and will therefore do a Rogers before long, but your analogy unfortunately is very, very limited.

#68 Sail Away on 07.10.22 at 9:34 am

“Realistically, most people have poor filters for sorting truth from fiction, and there’s no objective way to know if you’re particularly good at it or not. Consider the people who routinely disagree with you. See how confident they look while being dead wrong? That’s exactly how you look to them.”

-Scott Adams

#69 Sail Away on 07.10.22 at 9:43 am

#59 Ponzius Pilatus on 07.09.22 at 6:57 pm
#41 TN

“Germany’s largest landlord to reduce heating for tenants to save energy”

———

That’s the trend, folks.
No more wasting energy.
I’ve always got my inside temperature at 19 degrees.
No sweat. Pun intended.

———-

Sure, perfect. Heck, just shut off gas altogether and imagine the saved energy!

There’ll be some cold kinders this winter. Maybe they can stand around the green coal generators for warmth.

#70 Paddy on 07.10.22 at 10:59 am

If Felix and TurnerNation never posted comments again, I wouldn’t be sad….anyone else?

#71 Damifino on 07.10.22 at 11:10 am

#70 Paddy

If Felix and TurnerNation never posted comments again, I wouldn’t be sad….anyone else?
——————————-

Why stop there?

#72 Doug Rowat on 07.10.22 at 11:44 am

#67 JacqueShellacque on 07.10.22 at 8:45 am
One problem here though Doug is that if everyone realizes or supposes that a goalie should play center on every kick, then kickers will realize that and not shoot there.

—-

I did mention that his research concludes that goalkeepers should not choose the ‘center’ option every time, simply more often.

But the point is not to dissect how the statistical ‘gap’ or advantage might eventually evaporate but to focus on why it emerged in the first place: emotional bias.

—Doug

#73 Nonplused on 07.10.22 at 12:05 pm

I don’t know if this chart will work but give it a try:

https://ca.prospects.com/prospects/outside/marketreport.do?tok=Z5kbYbSzNkjUr2szQ2OPGXD1gj5e77hwB09%2F3Vk0u8tvC8O2dgV2YY8NbeWuNkjapGtcFCPSXjy5gitT24lwD1Jygx85vclgC4%2F5Lg%3D%3D

What is shows is that the median price in Calgary has dropped from $525,000 to $467,000 over the last 5 months. However that is still higher than just the end of last year. If we say the median price will stabilize at say around $440,000, then it will mean that except for some exuberance at the beginning of the year Calgary missed both the recent bubble and the current crash. $440,000 is still high, but can be managed by a 2 income family. And remember that half the houses cost less than that.

As Garth always says (although it is not original); all real estate is local.