Buckle up

Hey, remember in the Beforetimes when you could buy a house for $800,000?

Yes, kids, that actually was a thing. Properties changing hands in the LM or the GTA for a lowly six figures. That was before a “1” or even a “2” got stuck in front of the price of everything, including slanty semis, buggy bungalows and derelict properties with jungle font yards.

Well, eight hundred grand ain’t what it used to be. “Reality is setting in for those over priced homes,” writes Claude. “On the OJO site one home has dropped $800,000 in Brampton Ontario, another by $501,000 and many, many discounted homes in and around the big smoke, they had to have been grossly overpriced. In my opinion the Realtor who originally listed that home should have his rear end kicked. I feel this is only the beginning with multiple interest hikes yet to come.”

Here’s a snapshot of the Brampton market – where pandemic prices spurted more than 40% amid rampant speculation and fetid FOMO – identifying some of the recently-reduced properties. Ouch to recent buyers now forced to bail!

Meanwhile, even in the Kingdom of 416, where every one of the 63,000 real estate agents said fortress prices would hold up, the crumble is on. Says broker John Pasalis (who still hates me):

$305K That’s how much the average low-rise home price declined in the GTA since March But it also represents how much equity the average homeowner lost. Money that can no longer be used to pay off debts, renovate their home, buy a pre-con condo…

This week the real estate cartel announced its latest stats. June numbers. Prices down. Sales cratering. Still trying to fudge reality by quoting year/year gains (now less than inflation) while the month/month numbers are cataclysmically crappy.

“Can’t quit you Garth,” reports veteran agent Ron. “Prices down a further $66,000 in June. That is now a $188,000 drop in the last 3 months. That represents a 14% drop from peak in Feb.  A lot of these June sales were still benefiting from ultra low interest rates from previous lender commitments. Mortgages will start to fully reflect the first older rate increases in August.

“Tiff’s increase next week will not be felt until September/October. Number of Sales in the 416 a dreadful 2,400 (total all types of properties) sold in a population of 3 Million folks.  (TRREB Market Watch last page of full report) P.S. Only TRREB can say that prices are actually up 5.3% Y over Y. Technically true, but the trend is DOWN!”

Yes, the CB will add 75 bips on Wednesday as one of the most rapid ascents in relative borrowing history unfolds. Inflation is rampant. The job numbers expected tomorrow will be strong. Full employment is happening. The airports are jammed. Retail sales are hot. Corps are issuing no profit warnings. Two-buck-a-litre gas didn’t stop zillions of people from jamming Niagara Falls last weekend. So remember it’s an economy like this that throws off higher wages, prices, inflation and interest rates. The single-most impacted asset will be (highly leveraged) residential real estate.

Meanwhile in Bunnypatch, ditto.

WATERLOO REGION (K-W Record) – Overheated house prices are in a steady retreat, with the average price of a detached home in Kitchener and Waterloo down nearly $300,000 from February highs. The four-month cool-down brought the average price down to $920,439 last month, according to new statistics – virtually the same as it was one year ago.

In Vancouver, detached home sales dropped a withering 48% last month with the sales-to-listings ratio cascading down to just 14% (it was 30% for condos). The giant price melt has not hit BC’s biggest urban market yet, but detached prices dipped 2% in the last thirty days. Days ago we detailed for you the melt happening in the Fraser Valley and the OK.

By the way, Toronto sales were off 41% year/year and 11% lower than in May. The average price plop ranged from 30% for Toronto detached to 44% for townhomes in the sprawling 905 commutershed.

“Home sales have bene impacted by both the affordability challenge presented by mortgage rate hikes,” says chief real estate wizard Kevin Crigger, “and the psychological effect wherein home buyers who can afford higher borrowing costs have put their decision on hold to see where home prices end up.”

And where they end up, is down. Financial markets now give 96% odds the Bank of Canada will stay Rambo. The US Fed is certain to remain on the same path. RBC says Canadians should brace for a recession.

“This recession will be moderate and short-lived by historical standards—and can be reversed once inflation settles enough for central banks to lower rates,” state bank economists. But they also say even an economic downturn will not bring lower interest or mortgage rates, since the CB, “has little choice but to act.”

Remember, recessions are normal. People live right through them with no discernible consequence so long as two things happen: (a) they stay employed and (b) their debt’s under control.

But wait. CMHC says banks last year saw a 43% increase in new mortgage originations and an increase of 22% for refinances compared with 2020, leading to an additional $400 billion in residential mortgages on their balance sheets, while credit unions added $54 billion. Now we owe $1.7 trillion in mortgages – almost as much as the whole damn economy’s worth. All to be renewed at higher rates.

This has just started.

135 comments ↓

#1 Søren Angst on 07.07.22 at 12:10 pm

Ferret in Chicken Coop

Elon Musk

had twins last year with one of his top “Neuralink” executives, 7 + 2 the current spawn tally & a good Catholic:
https://www.reuters.com/technology/elon-musk-had-twins-last-year-with-one-his-top-executives-business-insider-2022-07-07/
https://twitter.com/TMZ/status/1543391603187888128 [“some” of his kids, prescient TMZ]

Elon employee suspicious about his no more WFH?
https://twitter.com/cpoliticditto/status/1544847864651808769

Elon self-congratulating:
https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1545049944796516357

If there are any aliens on Mars, the poor things…
https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1545049435654172675 [queue Ferret]

or

Elon takes all female astronaut crew to Mars with him on appropriately shaped/named Starship SN9:
https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-55564448

[renamed to SN11 on the return journey launch to Earth…SN14 upon landing]

Elon launches new Family EV after Mars trip:

https://www.sxcco.com/?product_id=285665680_69

– Disgruntled TWTR shareholder.

————————–

PS:

Crude Oil Front Month $104.04 +5.59% +5.51 Today
Jul 7, 3:59:40 PM UTC · USD · NYMEX

[only Benito is Finito]

#2 Søren Angst on 07.07.22 at 12:20 pm

This has just started.
– Garth

And will last for probably 2 more years.

Stay tuned kids, it’s about to get a whole lot worse.

——————-

BoJo out.

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-62070422

Latest he will stay on as PM until early October.
https://www.rainews.it/articoli/2022/07/regno-unito-boris-johnson-pronto-a-dimettersi-f18cc6fd-600b-401b-94c4-a48e5e42b190.html

Europa Mr. Markets Reaction
Jul 7, 4:35:30 PM UTC+1/+2

FTSE 100 Index 7,189.08 1.14% +81.31 Today
EURO STOXX 50 3,490.68 2.01% +68.84 Today
DAX PERFORMANCE-INDEX 12,843.22 1.97% +248.70 Today
CAC 40 6,006.70 1.60% +94.32 Today
IBEX 35 8,122.50 2.19% +173.90 Today

Grazie Boris. Still, all the best.

#3 Captain Uppa on 07.07.22 at 12:26 pm

My goal is to own a property on the East Coast by the ocean. My wife is off all summer and my two kids would love PEI, as an example.

Eventually, I’d like to leave the GTA and retire to my East Coast sanctuary.

I wonder when a good time would be to start looking. Any tips, Gartho?

#4 CH on 07.07.22 at 12:34 pm

It’s an insane level of debt, and surely not sustainable in the long term. There must be consequences both nationally and individually eventually, no? Is there historical precedent for countries in this situation?

#5 Søren Angst on 07.07.22 at 12:40 pm

The real reason BoJo had to resign.

https://twitter.com/Number10cat/status/1544370237432381441

Popular guy.

https://twitter.com/Number10cat/status/1544595419971338240

#6 Søren Angst on 07.07.22 at 12:47 pm

Wrong Family EV launch by Elon prior Comment.

Here it is:

https://www.tesla.com/semi

#7 The REIT stuff on 07.07.22 at 1:00 pm

#56 Balmuto on 07.07.22 at 1:25 am
#13 REIT this, not that on 07.06.22 at 5:40 pm
“Why not forego the festivities and the complications of direct ownership and just buy a good REIT? “

Leverage

_____________

Huh? Talk to your bank. You’ve heard of loans, HELOCs and margin …right?

But with a REIT, you have the choice of leverage or not. You dont with a direct purchase … unless you have a barrel of cash sitting on the sidelines…which defeats the purpose of leverage. Besides, leverage is the secret sauce as almost most of us know…but let’s dont tell Garth. After all, he is stuck in the 80s!

#8 TurnerNation on 07.07.22 at 1:12 pm

Buckle up we are THIS close to normal guys!

— Control over our Travel/Movement…is permanent. All the Former First World Countries are on the same script to Shut it down. Slo Mo Reset??

.UK Train Drivers Would Coordinate Any Strikes, Union Says (bloomberg.com)

.British Airways has cancelled another 10,300 flights between August and the end of October (euronews.com)

.Lufthansa is the latest European airline to cancel thousands of flights at the last minute (euronews.com)


— Life in Kanada. We were supposed to be so healthy! Everything was done For Our Health Comrades.
I wonder what is the cause here.

“Deaths with unknown causes now Alberta’s top killer: province”
https://calgary.ctvnews.ca/deaths-with-unknown-causes-now-alberta-s-top-killer-province-1.5975536

— A reminder that the “rules” are permanent.

.Dozens of San Diego Police Officers and other city employees fired for failing to perform weekly COVID tests (msn.com)
.Peru returns to blanket mandatory wearing of facemasks (en.mercopress.com)
.Shanghai Mass COVID Testing Order Sends Shivers Through Chinese Markets (investing.com)
.Cyprus brings back face masks a month after scrapping them (reuters.com)
.Australia: Victoria’s remaining COVID-19 restrictions won’t be easing before October, as Premier Daniel Andrews extends the state’s pandemic declaration (news.com.au)

#9 crowdedelevatorfartz on 07.07.22 at 1:12 pm

@#3 Cpt Uppa
“I wonder when a good time would be to start looking.”
+++
Eastern PEI( Kings County) has a lot of swamp.
Look before buying.
Preferably in Summer so you get an idea how bad the skeeters can get.
Fall is Hurricane season.
Farmland has a ton of fertilizer and pesticides dumped it for decades.
Avoid active farms with wells unless the water is tested or farming hasnt occurred for 5-10 years.
10 acres or more involves PEI’s IRAC ( google it) approval.( costs you $$$$$ for the IRAC bureaucratic poopshow unless you form a company in PEI and have the company buy the property….seems to be the latest popular foreign ownership way around IRAC).
Take you time looking at listings.
Prices are very inflated right now.
Give it at least a year…or two.
I’ve been lurking at listing for a few years.

#10 The Joy of Steerage on 07.07.22 at 1:13 pm

#3 Captain Uppa on 07.07.22 at 12:26 pm

My goal is to own a property on the East Coast by the ocean. My wife is off all summer and my two kids would love PEI, as an example.

Eventually, I’d like to leave the GTA and retire to my East Coast sanctuary.

I wonder when a good time would be to start looking. Any tips, Gartho?

Lunenburg dude.. it’s the best place in Canada.

#11 Ponzius Pilatus on 07.07.22 at 1:20 pm

#95 Shawn
Far from picking my pocket Alberta chose to fund expenses from oil royalties rather than impose a sales tax or higher income tax. We have the lowest taxes by far.
———————-
You’d think that lower taxes would lead to lower cost of living.
During my daughters hockey playing days, we spend many a weekends at hockey tourneys in Alberta.
Except for gas, nothing was cheaper than in BC.
Booze was actually more expensive in the private liquor stores than in the Government Liquor stores in BC.

#12 Gabriel on 07.07.22 at 1:20 pm

For fun and laughs, I checked out the Brampton listings. Randomly picked one over $1M. Found 12 Tindale Rd. What a doozy. Listed for $1.149M and reduced to $1.099. The only thing missing was an old fridge and a burned out car on the lawn.

I have friends who live in Greenwhich CT. You know, NYC hedge fund manager patch. Their house is worth approx. $1.2M, pretty much in spitting distance of $1.149M. If you compared their house with 12 Tindale Rd. you’d think they were in two different galaxies, which, in this case, they are.

Canadians are delusional.

#13 wfh on 07.07.22 at 1:29 pm

the 5-year government bond is going down, and mortgage rates are starting to go down as well (the 75 basis point increase is already baked in), which contradicts your narrative of ever increasing rates

#14 Søren Angst on 07.07.22 at 1:31 pm

Off topic, sort of.

In light of an Elon past Comment:

Go woke, go broke.

Becoming prophetic.

“Netflix to Its Techies: Shut Up”
[Tech workers at Netflix thought the company would always value their feedback. How naïve.”
https://www.vulture.com/2022/07/netflix-to-its-techies-shut-up.html

Comment that sums up the article best by bkmoderate:

Oh please.

TL;DR: A bunch of whiny overpaid Millenials who are trying to cosplay as social justice activists without giving up their $500,000 paychecks and stock options are upset that nobody is being nice enough to them.

Yawn

——————–

Woke thrown out the door as broke becomes ever more real.

More to come I expect as times get tougher and not just for Netflix.

High Inflation will wear a populace down. People will lash out.

#15 Pbrasseur on 07.07.22 at 1:34 pm

RE is only one problem, the big question is how do western welfare states keep financing themselves without printing money, borrowing more or encouraging consumers to bury themselves in debt (for example by backing loans or having CB buy mortgages). This at a time when population ageing has health care costs exploding?

Looks like we have an unsustainable model going and it’s going to take a lot more than a “mild short lived recession” to even begin fixing this.

#16 Ponzius Pilatus on 07.07.22 at 1:40 pm

Seems like the Airlines are prepping the public for higher prices.
Flights to Europe are now twice as high as before COVID.

#17 Penny Henny on 07.07.22 at 1:47 pm

Meanwhile in Niagara Region.
Real Estate numbers for June.
Year over Year comparisons.

New Listings 1197-1534 up 28.2%
Sales 890-483 down 45.7%
Days on market 18-19 up 5.5%
HPI benchmark price $656,300- $753,200 up 14.8%

here’s where it gets interesting

HPI for May was $790,500 so for June it’s down 4.7%

HPI for March’s peak was $825,300 so down 8.7%.

Not nearly as bad as other areas in Ontario, but is there more come…..

#18 Dr V on 07.07.22 at 2:00 pm

Hmm. James Caan passes away at 82 yo.

Johnathan…..Johnathan……Johnathan……

#19 Patrick Brown - new Brampton Realtor on 07.07.22 at 2:05 pm

No worries Garth, I’ve started a new career and will help Bramptonians sell off these distressed properties.

#20 Ponzius Pilatus on 07.07.22 at 2:05 pm

This statistic tells a damning story about policing in the States:
Jayland Walker was hit with 60 bullets.
That are more shots than the entire police force of Germany shoots in on year..

From: Der Stern
US-SCHUSSWAFFEN IN ZAHLEN
Jayland Walker wurde von mehr Kugeln getroffen, als die deutsche Polizei im Jahr verschießt

#21 Bankrupting Landlords is good for the Economy on 07.07.22 at 2:20 pm

What if home prices won’t go down by much simply because the culture has changed. Canadians worship and fetishize real estate way more than they use to.

#22 ElGatoNeroYVR on 07.07.22 at 2:28 pm

Now we owe $1.7 trillion in mortgages – almost as much as the whole damn economy’s worth. All to be renewed at higher rates.
======
So does anyone really think that any canadian govt. will let this correct down for much longer ?
We are already seeing Prime – 0.3% to -0.5% at the big banks and -1.2% at smaller outfits so 2.5% to 3.2 % on a variable.
If prime keeps going up the “independent non-cartel” canadian banks will discreetly offer bigger discounts as I have had them in the past.
Once the crowd catches on , the floor and small rebound will shortly ensues ,possibly at the same time.
Now I am not saying it will quickly rebound to same insane levels from before ,just that they will rebound somewhere in the middle ,or where we are now .

#23 baloney Sandwitch on 07.07.22 at 2:32 pm

“Now we owe $1.7 trillion in mortgages – almost as much as the whole damn economy’s worth. All to be renewed at higher rates. This has just started.”

What if BoC loses its nerve.

#24 ElGatoNeroYVR on 07.07.22 at 2:38 pm

#44 Sail Away on 07.06.22 at 10:42 pm
Re: EVs and free municipal charging

If I were to observe a bunch of people catching free fish with nets, I’d be looking for a net, not complaining that their use of a net is unfair.
================
In this particular example the Government owed fishing business is using your own money to buy nets.
So the argument is that in order to be fair you should pay for both ,the govt’s. and your own.
The whole EV subsidy thing is a scam ,from not paying for roads maintenace, electricity rates and upfront subsidy , bascially sibsidize the rich at the expense of the poor.
To be fair to all my german SUV should be subsidzied as well based on the Km I drive ,let those that commute for hours daily pay even more.
Yes ,my next vehicle wil be an EV but I will buy it when it makes sense to me without any govt. handouts.

#25 Brazilian in Quebec on 07.07.22 at 2:46 pm

Hi Garth,

Been a reader since 2020; your blog has helped to better understand Canadian Market and to avoid FOMO on houses during COVID.
Would love to hear your thoughts on Quebec housing market. Thanks!

#26 Captain Uppa on 07.07.22 at 2:58 pm

#9 The Joy of Steerage on 07.07.22 at 1:13 pm

Lunenburg dude.. it’s the best place in Canada.

+++++++++

I have always wanted to go there. I just wonder about summer activities for the kids, i.e. beaches, etc.

PEI seems a nice calm place with lots of beaches, biking, can ferry to NS, etc.

But point taken. Any specific reasons why Lunenburg is the best place in Canada?

#27 Captain Uppa on 07.07.22 at 2:59 pm

#8 crowdedelevatorfartz on 07.07.22 at 1:12 pm

You laid out a lot of good info. Three areas I was looking at were Point Prim, Rustico/Cavendish, west of Summerside on the water.

You looking for a secondary/vacation/future downsize property as well?

#28 Captain Uppa on 07.07.22 at 3:00 pm

We need Garth to do a post on his favourite spots in Canada.

It would be a nice break from the usual. Though I like the usual, but you know what I mean.

#29 DON on 07.07.22 at 3:09 pm

#22 baloney Sandwitch on 07.07.22 at 2:32 pm
“Now we owe $1.7 trillion in mortgages – almost as much as the whole damn economy’s worth. All to be renewed at higher rates. This has just started.”

What if BoC loses its nerve.

********
Other countries are now talking about raising rates right into a recession and beyond…it is the inflation they are trying to contain. Besides housing affordability is in the top three of thorns in current Politician’s butts. They will let the downward momentum remove this thorn for them. Problem solved on a political front.

Never ever, ever let a good crisis go to waste.

Greed not culture inflated the housing bubble. Human nature repeats so history rythmes. What a party recent history turned out to be…now the hangover.

#30 Russ on 07.07.22 at 3:11 pm

Faron on 07.07.22 at 12:37 pm

Headed up to Nanaimo. Gonna get me a reuben at the Oxy ’round lunchtime. See if it’s worth the fuse.
===========================

Dammit.
‘ wish I could meet you there for the Reuben assessment.

I have an old folks home visit soon and then getting ready to leave tomorrow for the weekend at VIMF

Cheers, R

#31 wallflower on 07.07.22 at 3:17 pm

This morning, I looked at several data sets on a small townhouse development in this southern Ontariowe city and this is the shocking reality in which new owners will find themselves.

New build townhouses sold 2020 ~$655K.
One sold 2022 for $1.1M. Almost double in two years.

Aggregator data sources are showing that the drop from July 2021 to July 2022 will be approximately $200,000 in this hood.
That crazy sheeple buyer at 1.1 is already down $200K BUT the worst is clearly yet to come because one of those townhouses listed now almost 2 months is NOT moving with a $75K drop.

AND everything in the surrounding hood is NOT moving and dropping and NOT moving. We are experiencing a stall and I am confident the real price base has not yet been discovered.

I suspect we are headed into 2017 levels.
As I recall, at that time, many residents of this city were ALREADY crying the blues about not being able to afford to buy OR rent. Stuck. So, until we reach those levels, where would the buyers be?

1989 V2

#32 wallflower on 07.07.22 at 3:24 pm

#12 wfh on 07.07.22 at 1:29 pm
Keep up with the stats, dude.
The majority of mortgages written during the craziest two years of RE trading were variable short term.

#33 physicist on 07.07.22 at 3:28 pm

Is the upcoming recession gonna be transitory or what???????????

#34 crowdedelevatorfartz on 07.07.22 at 3:42 pm

@#22 Sail away
“Heh. Nimrods.
All religions have the capacity to turn people into dough-headed nimrods.”
+++
Looking in the mirror I presume?
Well lets see who the Georgia police arrest for the destruction of the monument.
My money is on Born Again zealots who have used what small amount of brain matter they actually have in memorizing scripture ….. possum pie recipes….. and not much else…

#35 Quintilian on 07.07.22 at 3:48 pm

Head-scratcher to report from the trenches:

My folks live in Burnaby by Simon Fraser University.
I visit them usually once a week.

For sale signs everywhere, but they turn into Sold by next trip.

I am in total disbelief.

#36 PeterfromCalgary on 07.07.22 at 3:55 pm

I am trying to think of a time that North Americans were being impacted by a big crisis. I think the last time we had serious crisis that impacted North America is the Arab oil embargo.

The oil embargo wasn’t a humanitarian crisis like Ukraine but the oil embargo’s impact on North America was big and long lasting. That crisis was made worse later by the Iran Revolution. Similar to how the COVID19, shutdown, inflation crisis was made worse by Putin.

#37 Feds on 07.07.22 at 3:57 pm

Why does anybody think the recession will be short and mild? What points to this? We have record debt, a huge bubbly stock market, bubbly housing market, bubbly assets of all types – crypto, nft’s etc. For the first time ever we are hiking rates into a recession and we aren’t able to print more money. The USD is going through the roof and is going to decimate a lot of emerging market economies that are also pickled in debt. Another round of Covid seems to be on the way. Why is it so common to hear that the recession will be short and mild? The wealth destruction already is enormous and this party is just getting started. I feel like the best case is it will be mild and the worst case is it will be horrendous. I invest quite conservatively and I’ve already lost nearly 20% of my wealth this year without counting my house equity. Can somebody explain to my why they think this recession will be mild – or is that just a popular narrative for people to say so everybody doesn’t run for the doors now?

Because the economy is robust with record employment and sustained corporate profits. Not hard to see. Look at the airports. Besides all the ‘wealth’ you lost was probably an illusory gain from last year, right? Take a pill. Walk the dog. Gain perspective.- Garth

#38 DON on 07.07.22 at 4:00 pm

#35 Quintilian on 07.07.22 at 3:48 pm
Head-scratcher to report from the trenches:

My folks live in Burnaby by Simon Fraser University.
I visit them usually once a week.

For sale signs everywhere, but they turn into Sold by next trip.

I am in total disbelief.

*************

Yet you read the Greater Fool blog. Recency bias is permanent in some people and the new reality takes time to set in. Some people grew up in this bubble and it is all they know.

#39 Ustabe on 07.07.22 at 4:06 pm

#27 Captain Uppa on 07.07.22 at 2:59 pm

#8 crowdedelevatorfartz on 07.07.22 at 1:12 pm

You laid out a lot of good info. Three areas I was looking at were Point Prim, Rustico/Cavendish, west of Summerside on the water.

You looking for a secondary/vacation/future downsize property as well?

The little cafe across the road from the Point Prim Lighthouse almost makes it worth moving all on its own. This is, of course, pre-pandemic, but I’ve been involved in food and hospitality for decades and whoever runs that joint has it going on. Really impressed.

#40 Sail Away on 07.07.22 at 4:17 pm

#34 crowdedelevatorfartz on 07.07.22 at 3:42 pm
@#22 Sail away

“Heh. Nimrods.
All religions have the capacity to turn people into dough-headed nimrods.”

——–

Looking in the mirror I presume?
Well lets see who the Georgia police arrest for the destruction of the monument.

My money is on Born Again zealots who have used what small amount of brain matter they actually have in memorizing scripture ….. possum pie recipes….. and not much else…

——–

Sure, very likely. Idiots will idiot. Same as all the idiots recently destroying statues and the idiots (even on this blog) supporting that destruction.

Regarding the mirror, though- if I’m a dough-head, it has nothing to do with religion, although I have read the Bible a number of times and often quote from it, same as I’ll quote from other well-known books. Reading online versions with hyperlinks are best, since they explain certain turns of phrase and references.

#41 crowdedelevatorfartz on 07.07.22 at 4:27 pm

@#39 Ustabe
“You laid out a lot of good info. Three areas I was looking at were Point Prim, Rustico/Cavendish, west of Summerside on the water.”
+++
Point Prim is ok.
Windy out there so the bugs arent an issue.
Charlottetown is close for shopping.
Cant really have a dock for your boat there. Need to launch from a local village or wharf.

Rustico Cavendish is pricey, Nice beaches, small lots. Close to Ch’Town. Waterfront has been all but bought up years ago as far as the good spots are.

West of Summerside still has some good water front and property is much cheaper in Prince County because its a bit remote compared to the rest of the island….but living west of Summerside is …country livin.

Depends what you want i guess.
The Winters are long, cold, snowy and the wind never stops.
But the Summer….
:)

#42 Pprasseur on 07.07.22 at 4:33 pm

There might very well be a short and mild recession next, who knows, the markets are always unpredictable, but the problem is in that case it won’t fix anything, all the excesses and unbalances will remain and inflation will come back.

There’s no easy way out of this! Only a substantial rise in unemployment and general impoverishment, not to mention occasional financial/debt crisis will do the job. Just a matter of time imo.

#43 Stone on 07.07.22 at 4:35 pm

#37 Feds on 07.07.22 at 3:57 pm
Why does anybody think the recession will be short and mild? What points to this? We have record debt, a huge bubbly stock market, bubbly housing market, bubbly assets of all types – crypto, nft’s etc. For the first time ever we are hiking rates into a recession and we aren’t able to print more money. The USD is going through the roof and is going to decimate a lot of emerging market economies that are also pickled in debt. Another round of Covid seems to be on the way. Why is it so common to hear that the recession will be short and mild? The wealth destruction already is enormous and this party is just getting started. I feel like the best case is it will be mild and the worst case is it will be horrendous. I invest quite conservatively and I’ve already lost nearly 20% of my wealth this year without counting my house equity. Can somebody explain to my why they think this recession will be mild – or is that just a popular narrative for people to say so everybody doesn’t run for the doors now?

Because the economy is robust with record employment and sustained corporate profits. Not hard to see. Look at the airports. Besides all the ‘wealth’ you lost was probably an illusory gain from last year, right? Take a pill. Walk the dog. Gain perspective.- Garth

———

Fed, you think you invest conservatively and you lost 20% in 2022? I guess conservatively is a relative word.

I try to invest in a balanced and diversified manner and as of today, I’m only down -10.40% ytd for 2022.

Let me help you out. B&D is the way. Read the following:

https://www.fomotina.com/

#44 tbone on 07.07.22 at 4:42 pm

Nice reno in W9
23 Drury lane .
Bought Feb 21 2022 for 1736k ( list at 1399k )
Listed again today at 2399k .
Good luck with that .

#45 Moh on 07.07.22 at 4:46 pm

Hi Garth, any idea if homes in Brampton or even in the GTA will reach the Q4 2018 and Q1 2019 prices?

#46 robert james on 07.07.22 at 4:55 pm

Speaking of recessions , I knew a guy here in the Okanagan in the 70s that would p*ss it all away when the going was good and when a recession hit he would become “Born Again” , when the going got good again,, p*ss it all away , then become “Born Again” .. He moved to the Island so I don`t know what he is up to now but I would guess he is probably reading his Bible a lot more now.. LOL …………………………….Benchmark price for single-family home in Central Okanagan drops for second straight month ,,,,,,,,,,,,, https://www.castanet.net/edition/news-story–1-.htm

#47 Leon (still buying microblogging site) Umsk on 07.07.22 at 5:16 pm

Interesting that the comments from that one house pimp all involved turning perceived equity into more debt.

Also that dog in the picture sure looks proud of himself.

#48 45north on 07.07.22 at 5:26 pm

ElGatoNeroYVR So does anyone really think that any Canadian govt. will let this correct down for much longer ?

you mean the Canadian Government who has your best interests at heart? The Canadian Government who has promoted low interest rates and taken credit from the economic activity? Well sorry, the red shirts and orange shirts control the Canadian Government. If inflation stays high they’re going to lose their control so it has to come down. Ergo interest rates have to go up. Lucky for them, the Bank of Canada is an independent body. It’s raising interest rates but it doesn’t have a free hand. It is hugely influenced by the US Fed which sets interest rates for the United States. Interest rates are going higher. Much higher. There’s talk that sometime next year, inflation will come down and so will interest rates.

For the last 40 years, interest rates have gone down but I think that’s an aberration.

#49 MC on 07.07.22 at 5:26 pm

Tiff will go down as the worst BoC governor ever. I’m sure they don’t even realize inflation is coming down.

#50 robert james on 07.07.22 at 5:31 pm

Real estate agent: Many people ‘desperate to sell right now’ … https://www.ctvnews.ca/business/real-estate/real-estate-agent-many-people-desperate-to-sell-right-now-1.5978042?fbclid=IwAR2yN43Ce3HJ3uzx70lopuotDfaH-wr9z6HDY23CZX6k9zPqxOUhc0VaepU ……. Bought before they sold.. Ouch !!

#51 Canuck on 07.07.22 at 6:06 pm

The job numbers expected tomorrow will be strong. Full employment is happening. The airports are jammed. Retail sales are hot. Corps are issuing no profit warnings.
______________________________________________

Everything is always great and strong until it hits the fan and then people wonder what happened.

Airports are a mess thanks to gov’t COVID policies and caught offguard, not because there is a surge in flights.
My bank yield ETF suck bigly but do you hear the banks screaming out warnings? Nooooo

People in general are stupid and will continue to spend like there’s no tomorrow and when the economy does hit the fan and it will, most will wonder what happened and not sure what to do… as they watch news stories of food bank lines getting longer and people losing their homes.

#52 Canuck on 07.07.22 at 6:11 pm

The timing of all this couldn’t be better. Trudeau will be blamed… and rightfully so for how he is handling the recession, and just before a federal election so that Poilievre will become PM and start the process of cleaning up the mess.

#53 yorkville renter on 07.07.22 at 6:20 pm

I just want to say — for those asking Garth for specific thoughts on specific parts of the country – please stop.

Garth is not a R.E. agent… you need to do your own research. What is presented here are Macro impacts to markets based on the big indicators like Interest Rates, Price:Income Ratio, Corporate Earnings, etc.

/rant

carry on!

#54 Wrk.dover on 07.07.22 at 6:22 pm

Capt. Uppa; if you end up considering NS, consider this; stretching 360 miles, there are no two places the same. Garth tried two, and disliked one more than the other, I believe.

Settling in NS is not like throwing darts at a dart board.

Rent first, while you case the situation.

#55 Dave on 07.07.22 at 6:24 pm

Keep raising rates.

#56 Concerned Citizen on 07.07.22 at 6:25 pm

It’s great that home prices are trending down, but they’re still so far out of the realm of affordability for the median first-time home buyer. They’ve gone from stratospherically overpriced to just obscenely overpriced. They’re still nowhere remotely close to what they were even two years ago. Talk to me if and when they ever get moderately overpriced or, heaven forbid, fairly priced.

#57 NOSTRADAMUS on 07.07.22 at 6:29 pm

SPIRITUAL ADVISOR, I HEAR AND OBEY!
A lot of real estate companies are still getting 10 out of 10 for optimism but a big fat zero for their soothsaying abilities. It seems like only yesterday that the real estate cartel was preaching in a loud voice, and amplified by their shills in the bought and paid for media that real estate values would be going up by 10% in 2022. Buy now or forever be left out, was the message.
This gospel from on high was unfortunately heard loud and clear by far too many converts to the divine philosophy that real estate only goes up in value. Like zombies they marched hand in hand with their spiritual advisor to the bankers waiting embrace.
Now their spiritual advisor’s hand has gone stone cold. I suspect for a large number of spiritual advisors, (realtors) life is about to get a little harder than it has been for the past 12 years under the sponsorship of the worlds central banks. To make matters even more complicated, many agents are talking about tinkering with their only known selling tactic. Mmmm, seems the old strategy of just asking for the order is underperforming and sellers are getting antsy. Enough doom and gloom. Let’s be positive, look on the bright side, realtors can expect more job opportunities working for the government on financial counseling. Steady Lads, hold the line.

#58 jess on 07.07.22 at 7:09 pm

Syrian phosphate

https://www.occrp.org/en/investigations/a-bloody-trade-inside-the-murky-supply-chain-bringing-syrian-phosphates-into-europe

#59 Brits have spines, Canucks are jellyfish on 07.07.22 at 7:11 pm

#5 Soren Angst

^^^^^^^^^
One thing is for certain the British parliamentary members demonstrated courage, ethics, moral conscience and a spine when the conservatives resigned under protest to eject Boris Johnson from power.
It worked, and changes occurred.

You don’t see that in Canada!

The rank and file members of the liberal and NDP Canadian Parliament have demonstrated their gutless and weak stand through countless embarrassing scandals both domestically and abroad.

The Brits showed the fortitude to vote BOJo out because it was wrong, and the world admires them for that.

In Canada Mr. Trudeau and Menicino survive because of jellyfish backbenchers in their party who won’t do the right thing for the common man.

Canada knows you too Mr.Singh, as a player in this charade, and one day the vote to get you OUT is coming.

Disgusting.

In Canada MPs do not pick a party’s leader. – Garth

#60 What Could Go Worse on 07.07.22 at 7:13 pm

Real Estate Is A Top Tool For Money Launderers

Money laundering is popular, as you might guess with all of the illicit cash. That’s pretty obvious. What’s not obvious is the amount laundered. It rivals the size of whole financial systems in small countries. CISC found 30% of assessed organizations participate in laundering professionally

They warn the number is actually much higher, but due to the fact that laundering is hidden, it’s hard to find.

There are 22 groups and 9 individuals who “score high” for money laundering. The term makes it sound like they’re not sure, but that’s not what it means. Scoring high means they use sophisticated methods and often launder as a service. Money service businesses, private sector, informal transfer, casinos, and real estate are popular tools.

Amongst professional money launderers (PML), the highest threats launder $100s of millions per year. “One senior PML network is part of international networks serving transnational criminal organizations (e.g., drug cartels) and use Canada as a transit point to launder foreign proceeds of crime,” wrote the agency.

#61 crowdedelevatorfartz on 07.07.22 at 7:19 pm

3 reasons why the English language is difficult.

Knot has one silent ‘K”
Knuckle has two silent “K’s”
Republican has three silent “K’s”

#62 Ponzi the hypocrite on 07.07.22 at 7:28 pm

#20 PONZIUS PILATUS
This statistic tells a damning story about policing in the States:
Jayland Walker was hit with 60 bullets.
That are more shots than the entire police force of Germany shoots in on year..
…………………………

Well,,, ponzi all the facts are not in.
Did he shoot at cops or not?
Maybe so, maybe not, time will tell.

Have you ever been a cop?
If not, then don’t don’t be the judge so quick like American media.

You,,, I remember a while back loved the clip YOU posted on this blog about a security guard beating the hell out of a non-masked citizen at a public meeting in a town hall gathering somewhere.

The guy in the clip was just sitting there in his chair when he got attacked for just not earring a face mask!

You thought it was funny, so you posted it with a comment how you liked it.

I remember that post, do you??

#63 robert james on 07.07.22 at 7:37 pm

Delinquent HELOC debt expected to soon rise as interest rates increase, say experts https://www.theglobeandmail.com/investing/personal-finance/household-finances/article-delinquent-debt-expected-to-soon-rise-as-interest-rates-increase-say/?utm_campaign=sophi-pop&utm_medium=post&utm_source=facebook&fbclid=IwAR12JxZm2 Time to reap it debt pigs.. I have Zero sympathy…

#64 crowdedelevatorfartz on 07.07.22 at 7:49 pm

And as the ex Prime Minister of England announces his resignation he also announces “its his duty to remain until his successor is picked”
OR
He has a huge wedding bash planned at the PM’s official country residence and all the invitations have already been sent out…..

https://www.reuters.com/world/resigning-uk-pm-johnson-plans-lavish-wedding-party-chequers-residence-report-2022-07-07/

Completely tone deaf to what is happening with the common folk in England suffering through inflation and rising unemployment..

One wonders how many famous guests will cancel to avoid the “optics”.

#65 espressobob on 07.07.22 at 7:58 pm

It seems cash is the next big asset class in vogue compared to real estate or commodity plays.

Funny how that works.

#66 Regina on 07.07.22 at 7:59 pm

We just qualified for a home mortgage for a property 45 minutes from Toronto as we locked in 60 days ago at a 4.55% 10 year fixed rate and our mortgage payment, property taxes and home insurance is $5,321 a month. This is based on a $450,000 mortgage and we put $149,900 down payment. Good thing these prices drops in the local real estate in the last year here as we just paid 35% less or from $923,000 to $599,900. This was not this low since 2018.

We will have this paid off in 10 years as the mortgage is matured and we will be debt free. We have $250,000 in a non-registered investment account, RRSPs, TFSAs.

#67 Observer on 07.07.22 at 8:01 pm

Where did all those rotten foreigners go that were driving up all the house prices and spinning around in helicopters to buy up everything insight.?

#68 KLNR on 07.07.22 at 8:24 pm

@#61 crowdedelevatorfartz on 07.07.22 at 7:19 pm
3 reasons why the English language is difficult.

Knot has one silent ‘K”
Knuckle has two silent “K’s”
Republican has three silent “K’s”

hahaha, truth.

#69 Victor Llearna on 07.07.22 at 8:29 pm

The stupid sheep that bid up housing prices to the stratosphere are about to get slaughtered. Yhey deserve it. Is their own fault.

#70 crowdedelevatorfartz on 07.07.22 at 8:31 pm

@#20 Policeman Ponzie Patrol
“This statistic tells a damning story about policing in the States:
Jayland Walker was hit with 60 bullets.”

+++
You do realize that the US personal gun ownership is probably 10-20 times the average German citizen.
The US police act accordingly assuming every arrest may be deadly.
The police stated they were attempting to stop Walker when he ran a roadblock. He had warrants for his arrest. Apparently a shot was fired from the car during the chase. He stopped, jumped out and ran and when he turned towards the police….six police officers unloaded on him thinking he was going to shoot.
Adrenalin takes over.
I’m sure there will be endless lawyers lining up to sue for the family.
If you go to any public gun range in the Lower Brainland and pay to rent to shoot a handgun you will quickly find that 10 shots from a semiauto handgun will blaze off in a few(3-4) seconds.
A gun was later found in his car.
The lesson here?
Dont run when US police are pointing guns at you and yelling at you to stop.
Canadian police arent allowed to shoot a fleeing suspect if their life isnt in danger.

#71 Ed on 07.07.22 at 8:35 pm

Silly me….I thought the KKK was started by Democrats…I guess global warming affected my memory.

#72 Dragonfly58 on 07.07.22 at 8:37 pm

They are still here in semi rural Langley B.C. Except they just funnel $ from back home to extended family members here in B.C. who already have a legit residency status. A couple of dump trucks or a few acres of blueberrys does not pay for multi million $ small acerages. Do the math , where the capital is coming from isn’t hard to figure out.
A certain group in Northern India have trouble getting along with the main power holders in India. Golden Temple may have played a part. Big transfer of serious money out of Northern India and into Western Canada. I gues it is legal, but it sure makes things hard for people who live here and are limited by a Lower Mainland income. 2.5 million and up for pretty much any small agerage with a even remotely livable house. As soon as the sold sign goes up, work starts on a massive { truly } new house. Like I say even for local earners making good coin , you just can’t compete with these dump truck and blueberry incomes.

#73 Faron on 07.07.22 at 8:46 pm

#68 KLNR on 07.07.22 at 8:24 pm
@#61 crowdedelevatorfartz on 07.07.22 at 7:19 pm
3 reasons why the English language is difficult.

Knot has one silent ‘K”
Knuckle has two silent “K’s”
Republican has three silent “K’s”

hahaha, truth.

#71 Ed on 07.07.22 at 8:35 pm
Silly me….I thought the KKK was started by Democrats…I guess global warming affected my memory.

Who happily gave it away to Republicans during the Civil Rights era if not earlier. Republicans continue to add to their white nationalist acronym set like teens collecting tiktok likes.

#74 Grunt on 07.07.22 at 8:47 pm

Not just the real estate debt. The national deficit too. Unprecedented. What leadership is gonna get us out of this mess?

#75 pustule on 07.07.22 at 8:49 pm

#96 Sail Away on 07.07.22 at 12:42 pm

“…statement”

*statements*

Clippy’s getting tired…

#76 Ustabe on 07.07.22 at 8:55 pm

#71 Ed on 07.07.22 at 8:35 pm

Silly me….I thought the KKK was started by Democrats…I guess global warming affected my memory.

The Democrats that became the GOP…and visa versa.
Your point is kind of pointless as it omits that today’s GOP was yesterday’s Democrats who did start the KKK.

Have a free, non amp link:
https://www.livescience.com/34241-democratic-republican-parties-switch-platforms.html

#77 the Jaguar on 07.07.22 at 9:07 pm

“Remember, recessions are normal. People live right through them with no discernible consequence so long as two things happen: (a) they stay employed and (b) their debt’s under control.” GT+++

Ain’t it the truth? Or, as one of my favourite economic sweetie pies Kevin Warsh put it:

“So, Milton, I think it has been written in more recent histories as someone who said, oh, let the economy go as it is, laissez-faire economics. But his view of central banks was always somewhat more refined than that. What he really wanted central bankers to do was to let the economy have its business cycles, not to ensure that economies had 20 or 30-year periods of growth, but the business cycle was important. And central bankers would be putting themselves and their economies in harm’s way if they tried to overly adjust their tools ’cause the tools are pretty blunt.”

Yeah, and part of the business ‘cycle’ includes the odd recession. So don’t have a cow people..

iI you’ve minimized or eliminated your debt and made reasonable life choices you’ll be fine. If not, serves you damn right.

On a more festive note, tomorrow is Parade Day in Cowtown. Had some tornados pass through to the north of the city this afternoon ( hope River & Sunny weren’t too traumatized), but the sun is out now and the city is just buzzing. It will be quite the blowout this year after two years of Covid party pooperness.

Lots of tourists, pent up fun demand, retail stuff bursting at the seams, and we made sure Kevin Costner (our Parade Marshall this year) could ride through the streets under a big Alberta sky. It ain’t just some small rodeo event. There are more business deals done, political hob-nobbing, and romances born than you can shake a stick at.

Or you can just stay in Lunenburg where they live to cancel fireworks on Canada Day Eve. Mercy.

#78 DJT on 07.07.22 at 9:09 pm

Moisters rush into stocks?
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/you-know-what-would-be-really-irritating-crazy-rally-new-highs

#79 Richdad on 07.07.22 at 9:18 pm

Some folks think they are winners cause they invested in $US.

But it’s rise is really just an indicator of the global credit contraction.

#80 The Watcher ... 14th Post on 07.07.22 at 9:20 pm

Just outside Lunenburg – Great Deal – Take a Look !

https://www.royallepage.ca/en/property/nova-scotia/first-peninsula/279-first-peninsula-road/17666776/mls202211137/

#81 Rakesh on 07.07.22 at 9:34 pm

BMO’s prediction of TSX 24,000 by end of year, 2022 is no going to happen. I am sticking with my prediction of 16,000 to 17,000 TSX by years end 2022.

I know the BMO economists. Who are you? – Garth

#82 KLNR on 07.07.22 at 9:56 pm

@#80 The Watcher … 14th Post on 07.07.22 at 9:20 pm
Just outside Lunenburg – Great Deal – Take a Look !

https://www.royallepage.ca/en/property/nova-scotia/first-peninsula/279-first-peninsula-road/17666776/mls202211137/

lol, thats not a great deal.

#83 TruthHerz on 07.07.22 at 10:03 pm

The Republican party was started by Abraham Lincoln and other abolitionists in order to end slavery. The Democratic party was founded by slave-owner Andrew Jackson.

It was the Democrat George Wallace who stood in front of a school to prevent black children from getting an education alongside white children in the civil rights era.

#themoreyouknow

#84 yvr_lurker on 07.07.22 at 10:09 pm

BMO’s prediction of TSX 24,000 by end of year, 2022 is no going to happen. I am sticking with my prediction of 16,000 to 17,000 TSX by years end 2022.

I know the BMO economists. Who are you? – Garth
——–
Overall portfolio down 8.5% on B+D since January 1st. The BMO guys sound like realtors predicting the epic rise of real estate. Is it reasonable to assume that we go from the TSX at 19,000 to 24,000 in 5.5 months, a gain of 23% in this period? Based on what exactly, besides fairy dust and wishful thinking that everything comes out optimally. It will be clear that we are in a recession by then, perhaps not so deep but clearly noticeable as wage gains will not catch up with inflation. There is a huge pent up demand for travelling this summer (the first in over years), but this will be short-lived. I predict a TSX of around 21K by January 2023. Let’s table this discussion and revisit in 6 months.

Oh, and who are you, BTW? – Garth

#85 waltersafety on 07.07.22 at 10:10 pm

# 3 Captain Uppa
I sold my place in PEI last year . I will never get trapped on a island again.
Local and provincial govt are completely owned by the Feds and whatever narrative, policies , experiments the Feds want to fund.PEI will never pay their debt-impossible.
You better be healthy too .

#86 crowdedelevatorfartz on 07.07.22 at 10:21 pm

@#80 The Watcher
“Just outside Lunenburg – Great Deal – Take a Look !”
+++
Just $888 thousand dollars.
Appeals to a certain demographic I suppose.
I’ll wait a year….or two.

Do they allow fireworks?

#87 crowdedelevatorfartz on 07.07.22 at 11:09 pm

@#85 Waltersafety
“I sold my place in PEI last year . I will never get trapped on a island again.”
++
That’s why there is a bridge…
Finished ahead of schedule and under the bid….by a private consortium based out of Calgary no less.
Try that today.

As for the politics.
It’s at its most blatant in PEI.
Whoever is in power in Ottawa becomes supreme overlord in PEI.
And the govt contracts are handed out to the party faithful.
And all those faithful won’t let you “losers” forget it.
The only thing missing now from bygone days is the free shot of rum after you walk out of the polling booth.

#88 Froggy on 07.07.22 at 11:12 pm

Really in my opinion to whom this response applies to realestate doesn’t have a pray l think 2 generation’s are about to learn a hard lesson that’s all l can say

#89 millmech on 07.07.22 at 11:29 pm

https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/vtrdt5/gme_just_laid_off_20_of_corporate_staff/
https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/vtvjq0/twitter_lays_off_30_of_its_talent_acquisition/
Layoffs picking up in tech.

#90 Built to Spec on 07.07.22 at 11:36 pm

#61 crowdedelevatorfartz

3 reasons why the English language is difficult.

Knot has one silent ‘K”
Knuckle has two silent “K’s”
Republican has three silent “K’s”
– – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – –

The KKK was created by and loyal to the Democrat party.
The Republican party (Abraham Lincoln) was created for and ended slavery.
The Republicans voted in higher percentage for civil rights than the Democrats.

The parties didn’t switch – the Democrats tactics changed, but they remain the party of racism to this day.
There’s nothing “white nationalist” about Republicans.
The Democrats backed by the hysterical left-wing media just scream “racist” and “white nationalist” at their political opponents, secure that there’s many unthinking voters (like some readers on this site) who are eager to believe their lies.

#91 Joseph R. on 07.07.22 at 11:44 pm

#83 TruthHerz on 07.07.22 at 10:03 pm
The Republican party was started by Abraham Lincoln and other abolitionists in order to end slavery. The Democratic party was founded by slave-owner Andrew Jackson.

It was the Democrat George Wallace who stood in front of a school to prevent black children from getting an education alongside white children in the civil rights era.

#themoreyouknow

——————————————

Who was POTUS in 1963?

#92 yvr_lurker on 07.07.22 at 11:59 pm

Oh, and who are you, BTW? – Garth
—-

PhD Stem, and not a believer in anyone who pedals fairy dust while wearing rose-coloured glasses ignoring all the road signs. Did our fearless leaders in economics at the BofC predict this rapid of a surge in inflation coupled with a rapid increase in interest rates over the past 6 months. Did they predict the worst 6 month performance of the market in the past 50 years? Nope. One would think that the sentiment of these “experts” would be a little more muted given their failure (ignoring the Russia issue) to even realize that inflation would undergo a cascade.

Let’s see where we are in 6 months. Motion tabled for now, and I won’t forget the prediction… we will stabilize but will mainly be limping along….

#93 Dr V on 07.08.22 at 1:04 am

83 TruthHerz

“It was the Democrat George Wallace who stood in front of a school to prevent black children from getting an education alongside white children in the civil rights era.”
—————————————————-

If anyone wants to see an excellent documentary on Wallace, try this one, “Settin’ the Woods on Fire” – an amazing story

https://www.pbs.org/wgbh/americanexperience/films/wallace/

#94 Jacko on 07.08.22 at 1:45 am

Remember the ’80’s when RE cratered 50++ % and Jingle Mail was the favorite phrase during the dark winter of 82-83? What happened then? The stock market went in a tear. We had cocaine huffing and decadence. It was the Studio 54 time. Politicians wore extravagant capes and married fuzzy bottom groupies and no one cared if he gave them the finger.

.I’m suspecting that will happen again. RE will crash further, wring out any hope, and be consigned to the trash. And stocks will become the only place to park your money. Society was being levelled by zero rates, everybody got to pretend.

The recession we’re will grind the working class dreams into gravel. But, the rich will get richer, and golden parachutes will be paid. Look for the signs of emerging chest hair at sleazy clubs and a politician wearing a cape.

That will be the dinner bell and it’s likely a certain politician will try to bail himself out with short duration bonds issued at 10++% . In the 80’s these hail Mary bonds paid 19% for five years. It’s coming back.

#95 Jane24 on 07.08.22 at 4:01 am

#3 Captain Uppa on 07.07.22 at 12:26 pm

My goal is to own a property on the East Coast by the ocean. My wife is off all summer and my two kids would love PEI, as an example.

Eventually, I’d like to leave the GTA and retire to my East Coast sanctuary.

I wonder when a good time would be to start looking. Any tips, Gartho?
____________________________

May I suggest the Azores islands, a 4 hour flight southeast from Toronto.
Owned by Portugal but populated by Ontario.
Everyone speaks English.
No mozzies.
Lots of beach front property around the 9 islands.
Multiply direct flights every day to TO and Montreal.
Cheap cost of living.
Nice 2 bed house on the coast for about $400,00 Cdn. Lower than Cdn cottage prices.
Low cost of living.
No crime.
Great bars crawling with people from Mississauga and Brampton.
Islands are into active tourism with an emphasis on very cheap water sports.
10% income tax.
Open to residential and internet working visas.

What’s not to like!

#96 Bezengy on 07.08.22 at 7:47 am

#60 What Could Go Worse on 07.07.22 at 7:13 pm
Real Estate Is A Top Tool For Money Launderers

—————————-

Everywhere I look all I see is crime. Awhile back on this blog the question was asked on what needs to change in this country. Undoubtedly it’s the justice system imo. Everything from littering to murder should be seen as an opportunity to make money for government coffers. While we can’t stop crime, we should at least make it pay, and I’m not talking about it paying for the criminals.

#97 crowdedelevatorfartz on 07.08.22 at 8:20 am

@#95 Jane24

Does it have a bridge?
:)

#98 crowdedelevatorfartz on 07.08.22 at 8:43 am

Well we could always move to beautiful Vancouver’s Main and Hastings sidewalk.

https://globalnews.ca/video/8975195/new-tent-city-appears-along-hastings-in-vancouver/

Mayor Kennedy Stewart of the “Defund the Police” and “Vancouver Police are systemically racist” fame now owns this mess.
He is up for re-election in Nov. .
The police decided this week not to “search and seize” the transient tents.
Its a wide open Mardis Gras for blocks and blocks and blocks.

This is 3 blocks from the Cruise Ship Terminal.

#99 IHCTD9 on 07.08.22 at 9:05 am

#93 Dr V on 07.08.22 at 1:04 am
83 TruthHerz

“It was the Democrat George Wallace who stood in front of a school to prevent black children from getting an education alongside white children in the civil rights era.”
—————————————————-

If anyone wants to see an excellent documentary on Wallace, try this one, “Settin’ the Woods on Fire” – an amazing story

https://www.pbs.org/wgbh/americanexperience/films/wallace/
___

On the flip side of the slavery topic is the “The Good Lord Bird” series. It follows the historical escapades of abolitionist John Brown. It is **super** good. Probably Hawke’s best performance ever.

#100 crowdedelevatorfartz on 07.08.22 at 9:32 am

@#90 Specc’er
“secure that there’s many unthinking voters…”
+++
Like a Republican that still believes Trump’s election was stolen?
Spare me.

#101 Senator Bluto on 07.08.22 at 9:35 am

#91 Joseph R. on 07.07.22 at 11:44 pm
#83 TruthHerz on 07.07.22 at 10:03 pm
The Republican party was started by Abraham Lincoln and other abolitionists in order to end slavery. The Democratic party was founded by slave-owner Andrew Jackson.

It was the Democrat George Wallace who stood in front of a school to prevent black children from getting an education alongside white children in the civil rights era.

#themoreyouknow

——————————————

Who was POTUS in 1963?

++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

At the 09:00 POTUS press conference this morning Joe Biden said that when he was leader of Seal Team Six in 1963 he was slightly wounded in a napalm attack in Dealey Plaza on November 22, 1963. During the attack, Biden said he tried to save some Kennedy guy but was stopped by Donald Trump.

Biden also stated that he was awarded the Nobel Prize for Bravery by the Pope.

The White House press office then called a lid at 9:05 am this morning.

#102 crowdedelevatorfartz on 07.08.22 at 9:40 am

Shinzo Abe assassinated?
Crazy.

#103 Dharma Bum on 07.08.22 at 9:51 am

#95 Jane 24

What’s not to like?
—————————————————————————————————–

You answered your own question:

“…crawling with people from Mississauga and Brampton.”

Nuff said.

#104 Frank on 07.08.22 at 9:55 am

A guy makes a prediction and he gets put down. It is his own prediction and economists all put in a room make many different predictions all the time with the same data, information. If he is nobody why take it so seriously. Also, everyone knows how the central banks pump up stock markets, currency markets, many markets and really it is fake, overvalued when you really look at it closely. I personally do not think the TSX will do much 18,500 to 19,500 by the year end and 24,000 TSX is really too optimistic in my opinion.

#105 Quintilian on 07.08.22 at 9:58 am

#92 yvr_lurker on 07.07.22 at 11:59 pm
One would think that the sentiment of these “experts” would be a little more muted given their failure (ignoring the Russia issue) to even realize that inflation would undergo a cascade.

Lurker you encapsulated it so well. I vacillate back and forth between designating the “experts” as fools or con artists, perpetually feeding ponzi schemes and houses of cards.

At best benevolent imbeciles.

#106 DON on 07.08.22 at 10:01 am

#92 yvr_lurker on 07.07.22 at 11:59 pm

Did our fearless leaders in economics at the BofC predict this rapid of a surge in inflation coupled with a rapid increase in interest rates over the past 6 months. Did they predict the worst 6 month performance of the market in the past 50 years? Nope. One would think that the sentiment of these “experts” would be a little more muted given their failure (ignoring the Russia issue) to even realize that inflation would undergo a cascade.

*********

This concerns me also…the experts didn’t see this coming. Now they are all trying to get back on the bandwagon. The Ukraine war was only supposed to last a month. All one has to do is go back and read all the comments made by the little Messy haired school boy Boris Johnson over the past year. Why anyone would listen to him is simply amazing. Then again lots of ‘smart’ people got sucked into believing resl estate values would go up for ever.

#107 rampant inflation on 07.08.22 at 10:14 am

Start expecting a 1% hike in rates next meeting kids. Inflation is rampant. Wages are rampant. Hard landing on its way. Inflation won’t fall with 2% rates…

#108 the Jaguar on 07.08.22 at 10:21 am

Keep hope alive. And take a gander at the last line of this announcement. Not on our watch. :

July 08, 2021
In support of the Calgary Stampede, the Royal Canadian Air Force will conduct a series of flybys of Calgary Stampede Park.
Flybys will take place at the beginning of the Rodeo, at approximately 1:30 p.m. local time, on their scheduled date;

July 9, 2021 – Flyby of two CF-18 Hornet fighter jets from 4 Wing, Cold Lake, AB during opening ceremonies;

July 17, 2021 – Flyby of two CF-18 Hornet fighter jets from 4 Wing, Cold Lake, AB; and

July 18, 2021 – Flyby of two CF-18 Hornet fighter jets from 4 Wing, Cold Lake, AB.

In addition, each evening between July 9 and 18, 2021, a Royal Canadian Air Force CH-146 Griffon helicopter will fly a slung Canadian flag over Calgary Stampede Park.

#109 Stone on 07.08.22 at 10:26 am

#81 Rakesh on 07.07.22 at 9:34 pm
BMO’s prediction of TSX 24,000 by end of year, 2022 is no going to happen. I am sticking with my prediction of 16,000 to 17,000 TSX by years end 2022.

I know the BMO economists. Who are you? – Garth

———

It’s actually Brian Bekski from BMO who provided that prediction. Not a BMO economist but the Chief Investment Strategist at BMO Capital Markets. Super nice guy and perma-optimist.

#110 Ustabe on 07.08.22 at 10:34 am

The Convoy Party of Canada thinks it appropriate to hold a bar fight just weeks away from what should be a very important leadership election while you guys try and argue that the GOP/Republican party in the US is all good on the racist front.

Pass the popcorn.

#111 Quintilian on 07.08.22 at 10:36 am

https://www.bankofcanada.ca/about/history/#past-governors

The most recent are the worst of the lot.

#112 Ages of discord on 07.08.22 at 10:47 am

DELETED

#113 millmech on 07.08.22 at 10:52 am

https://www.bbc.com/news/stories-50435014

#114 Shawn on 07.08.22 at 10:56 am

The Azores?

#95 Jane24 on 07.08.22 at 4:01 am
____________________________

May I suggest the Azores islands, a 4 hour flight southeast from Toronto.
Owned by Portugal but populated by Ontario.
Everyone speaks English.

*******************************
Spent a day there in 2018 as our TransAtlantic cruise stopped in. I really liked it. Temperate weather all year round. I thought at the time it would be a great place to run an internet business. (Was ahead of my time on that)

Historic buildings. Friendly people. The beer and food was cheap. It looked like a low income area. But that means you could live well there on a Canadian retirement income.

For us too far from our adult kids and other family but yes, very worth considering.

#115 jess on 07.08.22 at 10:58 am

“non-qualified mortgages”
Sprout Mortgage is shutting down operations, multiple workers said on Wednesday.

https://www.housingwire.com/articles/sprout-mortgage-to-shutter/

https://www.housingwire.com/articles/as-fgmc-shuts-down-lender-partners-question-fate-of-loans-in-pipeline/

#116 Ponzius Pilatus on 07.08.22 at 11:17 am

#103 Dharma Bum on 07.08.22 at 9:51 am
#95 Jane 24

What’s not to like?
—————————————————————————————————–

You answered your own question:

“…crawling with people from Mississauga and Brampton.”

Nuff said.
———————-
Yep.
When I want a holiday, I wanna see how the Natives live.
Not run into my neighbor on every beach.
Then might as well stay home.

#117 Ponzius Pilatus on 07.08.22 at 11:33 am

#104 Frank on 07.08.22 at 9:55 am
A guy makes a prediction and he gets put down. It is his own prediction and economists all put in a room make many different predictions all the time with the same data, information
————————
Pretty hard to imagine that a guy in steerage has the same information and experience as Garth and his boys do.
Most amateurs let their biases run their brain.
Take CEF, he was predicting Putin’s demise and his head on a “pike” by now.
Not to mention his gas price prediction.

#118 TurnerNation on 07.08.22 at 11:41 am

Buckle up the Former First World Countries are being wound down.

— Same script playing out in each Former First World Country. Plane ‘n Trains. Stay in your crowded, fetid UN Smart City Comrade.

.Via Rail says services across Canada could be suspended next week due to strike by approximately 2,400 workers (cp24.com)

—- Gee what a surprise, the govenrment control over travel is permanent. Another Consp. theory come true?

.ArriveCAN 2.0: Ottawa confirms controversial app will outlast pandemic (globalnews.ca)

—- Like life in 2nd World Country:
Major internet outage, many store are closed today as their POS is down. Even 911 service is affected, Tweeted Toronto Police.

.Rogers experiencing major service outages (cp24.com)

—–
—– From the Killing us Softly Dept. This never was about health. Once you get this it all makes sense.

2.5 years later and untold spending/debt the health system is in shambles. Former First World Country.

https://www.blogto.com/city/2022/07/ontario-hospitals-er-closing-short-staffed/
“”All hospitals in Southwestern Ontario are experiencing staffing shortages, including nurses, physicians, laboratory, allied health and support staff,” the Listowel Wingham Hospitals Alliance wrote in a statement announcing their temporary closure this week.”

#119 Ponzius Pilatus on 07.08.22 at 11:45 am

#114 Shawn

Historic buildings. Friendly people. The beer and food was cheap. It looked like a low income area. But that means you could live well there on a Canadian retirement income.
——————-
Low income area?
Of course.
That’s why tourist companies can offer these cheap packages for the masses, and still make a good profit.
Just like Mexico, right Don G.?

#120 Ponzius Pilatus on 07.08.22 at 11:52 am

Talking about predictions:
Did anyone here predict the assassination of Abe?
Of course not.
Because life is random and unpredictable.

#121 Dragonfly58 on 07.08.22 at 12:36 pm

There are two realities in Canada. The reality the top 20 % or so live in , Garth, senior Gov. people, financially successful people of all varieties. Pretty much every year up, some years a little , some years a lot. Almost never down. All times are golden for this group.

Then there are the rest of us. The lower 80%. We all know how that plays out. Gets pretty depressing as the decades roll by.
We all work or worked hard.
But things just never seemed to work out.
Canada for the last 40 years has been a boulevard of broken dreams for most of us.

#122 Dr V on 07.08.22 at 12:40 pm

Just some more data from the energy profile link I gave
and links referenced within.

Canada has the worlds 4 highest hydroelectric capacity, and 3rd highest production (may vary year to year). Of other large producers, the per capita generation of Canada is much higher, and is comparable to smaller European nations such as Austria, Switzerland and Sweden. (Norway punches above its weight).

As of 2019 however, Canadian energy end-use demand
comprises only about 10% hydro, and over 3/4 fossil fuels, which does not include the FF used to create electricity.

Road transportation accounts for approximately 12% of ghg emissions worldwide. One study estimated an increase of about 150% in power capacity is required to electrify the vehicle fleet in BC by 2050. The site C project represents only about 1% of Canada’s hydropower. Guess we’ll be needing a few more.

Conclusion: This is WAY bigger than plugging in your Tesla.

#123 crowdedelevatorfartz on 07.08.22 at 12:49 pm

@#117 Ponzies problematic predictions

“Take CEF, he was predicting Putin’s demise and his head on a “pike” by now.
Not to mention his gas price prediction.”

+++
No I believe I said Sept for Putin’s demise.
Because the alternative may be “Russian as a second language” courses in Vienna by Sept 2023….

As for $3.00/liter gas by July1st…
I didnt hear you saying anything contrary in the month of June…..too frightened to take a stance Ponzie?

#124 J on 07.08.22 at 12:50 pm

Interesting thread on predicting where the TSX will end up on Dec 2022.

I personally have no idea exactly what the future holds, but the use of probabilities can assist us. However, humans are not so good at understanding this:

https://www.fastcompany.com/3061263/people-are-really-bad-at-probability-and-this-study-shows-how-easy-it-is-to-trick-us

#125 Dragonfly58 on 07.08.22 at 1:00 pm

Interesting that Rogers are having a big outage today. I guess this will bring a pet peeve of mine , ArriveCAN to a grinding halt. Immagine being stuck in the US and unable to come home because you can’t fill out a on line / phone app only, piece of documentation. Seems absurd , only in Canada could such a boondoggle become the status quo for re entering your home country. Hard for some to believe but some of us down here in steerage have a very hard time affording a mobile phone. $80.00 / month or so , after tax income sure adds up for those of us getting by on a pension. And now even the wonder device can’t fill in the critical app. Canada is surely jumping the shark.

#126 jess on 07.08.22 at 1:00 pm

A central bank digital currency could play a key role in protecting financial stability, Federal Reserve Board Vice Chair Lael Brainard said in a speech Friday morning.

In remarks delivered at a Bank of England conference in London, Brainard said a CBDC could be a settlement layer that connects a system of regulated stablecoins to one another and to public money.

“Given the foundational role of fiat currency, there may be an advantage for future financial stability to having a digital native form of safe central bank money — a central bank digital currency,” Brainard said in remarks delivered at the conference

#127 jess on 07.08.22 at 1:01 pm

https://www.nist.gov/news-events/news/2022/07/nist-announces-first-four-quantum-resistant-cryptographic-algorithms

#128 Sail Away on 07.08.22 at 1:05 pm

My sense is that the markets are ready to advance. Could be wrong, but it’s feeling positive. Naturally, I’m investing accordingly.

Also, closed out a very nice one-month, +12% arbitrage on Spirit Airlines. Current Activision upside is +21% by June 2023. Twitter is, well, twitchy. Buffett always used arbitrage to keep profits up during unsettled markets.

#129 Sail Away on 07.08.22 at 1:11 pm

The sector that best weathered the downturn is exactly the one that should have.

Essential Services: Gas, Electric, Rail, Waste Management, Water

Uncle Warren and I love the boring stuff.

#130 Shawn on 07.08.22 at 1:18 pm

#116 Ponzius Pilatus on 07.08.22 at 11:17 am

When I want a holiday, I wanna see how the Natives live.
Not run into my neighbor on every beach.
Then might as well stay home.

*******************
Especially not on the nude beaches. That just gets awkward.

#131 crowdedelevatorfartz on 07.08.22 at 1:57 pm

The sense of entitlement and rot goes deep in BC….

https://vancouver.citynews.ca/2022/07/08/bc-clerk-craig-james-sentenced-fraud/

Perhaps if they made an example in a few of these cases…..people wouldn’t be so quick to defraud the govt the next time?

$200k per year salary and it all came crashing down….for a wood chipper.
Pathetic.
The man should be in jail for his stupidity alone.

#132 T Rex and the dinosaur clique on 07.08.22 at 2:47 pm

RE: #122 Dr V on 07.08.22 at 12:40 pm

Been saying this for years.

Been cancel cultured and shut down by the green energy folks for my efforts.

All that is needed, the greens say, is to tax people so heavily that they all switch to electric.

We will then have a fully electric society. Electric heat in houses, electric cars, everything whizzing away all powered by the same grid that powers us now.

When I point out that this is complete and total fantasy, and that Canada would need to exponentially increase both its generating capacity and its transmission capacity, then the knives come out, cancel culture revs up and I get called a “climate change denier” and other such choice terms.

Now that they are finally crunching the numbers, things appear as I said they would.

We do not have anywhere near the generating capacity. Our existing nuclear reactors in Ontario are reaching the end of their service lives. We are not building any more.

Our transmission network cannot transmit the kind of electricity needed to run a full electric world. It would need to be completely rebuilt. Nothing that exists right now could be used.

Environmentalists have a peculiar disconnect with reality. Though they are able to readily identify problems with current systems, and organize and run protests and propaganda campaigns, they have no ability, absolutely zero ability, to propose any alternatives, or to build or design anything that would better serve us with less damage to the environment.

They can destroy, but they cannot rebuild.

#133 crowdedelevatorfartz on 07.08.22 at 3:35 pm

@#130 Shawn
“Especially not on the nude beaches. That just gets awkward.”
+++
In Germany they go topless in city Parks.

#134 crowdedelevatorfartz on 07.08.22 at 3:48 pm

@#128 Dragonfly
” Seems absurd , only in Canada could such a boondoggle become the status quo for re entering your home country”

+++
A good opinion piece in the Nat Post today about the Liberal drift .

https://nationalpost.com/news/politics/john-ivison-the-rot-of-canadas-dysfunctional-government-is-coming-from-the-head

Zero leadership. ( anyone heard the PM or Transport Minister say anything about Air canada lately?)

Experienced bureaucrats gone.

A nation run by kidults that dont really care about anyone but themselves.

Bring on an election.
These incompetent’s dont deserve their bloated salaries and perks.

#135 Francis on 07.08.22 at 7:28 pm

If you work for BMO you are part of BMO. It is that simple. It does not matter what position that person is in for BMO. BMO pays their income and they are part or from BMO.