Real money

Recall how this know-it-all blog told you to keep a quarter of your shekels in US$, like, always?

There’s a reason to hold US dollar-denominated ETFs, and from time-to-time you know why. Like now. In a world where it seems everything (including your house, but not your used 4Runner) is losing value, the Yankee dollar has once again emerged as the safest haven around.

Big moves up for the Biden Buck on Tuesday, which had the opposite effect on commodities priced in greenbacks. Gold was Hoovered by about 2%, or more than forty bucks and is back down in the $1,700-an-ounce range. No inflation hedge there (as we detailed here last week).

And hey, Calgary, oil’s tumbling. From $120 US a barrel a few weeks ago it’s now at $99, cratering more than 8% today. Ouch. Bitcoin, once (not so long ago) worth a crazy $64,000, struggled for most of the day to stay above $19,000 US. Even Dr. Copper was clobbered down to a 17-month low. The euro’s fallen to 2002 levels. And our poor loonie’s back scraping for handouts at 76 cents.

Surviving a time when we have war, inflation, a broken supply chain, macho central bankers, political radicals on both sides, 6% mortgages and Drake singing with the Back Street Boys (now between ages 38 and 46) you may think there’s no hope. But the key to minimizing risk, successfully hunkering through the storm and positioning for inevitable recovery is … tada… diversification. Own different assets. Have exposure to different regions. Earn income in different ways. Hold different currencies.

Also, a note for the doomers and USA-haters. The American dollar is proving once again it rules as the globe’s currency. This is a safe haven. Given a choice, everyone on the planet would rather be paid in Benjamins. Never in the lifetime of anyone now old enough to install their own socks will this cease to be the case. The US$ is the reserve currency. Ensure you own some.

*    *    *

Lately we’ve documented the withering decline of residential real estate around the GTA and in anguished Bunnypatch. Some properties have lost $100,000 – per month. Sales are tanking. There is much more to come. And there’s zero reason the decline will not be long-lasting.

Ha! Eastern-Canadian-loser-drama queen-Lib-milquetoasts, cry the masses in the Fraser Valley, the Okanagan and the Island. It’s different in BC, baby.

Really?

Realtor Jesse Kleine provides some tangible evidence that BC is also getting nicely infected. Here are current LM price declines, by housing type. Also just the start.

Condos:
Fraser Valley: -6%, -$33,000
Greater Vancouver: -6%, -$42,000
Surrey + Delta: -8%, -$50,000
Langley: -7%, -$45,000
Abbotsford: -11%, -$54,000
East Van: -4%, -$27,000
Burnaby: -9%, -$67,000

Townhouses:
Fraser Valley: -13%, -$125,000
Greater Vancouver: -9%, -$110,000
Surrey + Delta: -15%, -$150,000
Langley: -10%, -$97,000
Abbotsford: -16%, -$137,000
Maple Ridge: -16%, -$150,000
East Van: -8%, -$110,000

Detached:
Chilliwack: -16%, -$180,000
Mission: -19%, -$256,000
Maple Ridge: -17%, -$265,000
Coquitlam: -13%, -$248,000
Burnaby: -14%, -$309,500
East Van: -14%, -$305,000
North Van: -13%, -$290,000

  *     *     *

Nikita Perevalov used to work at the Bank of Canada, which means he will never get a Christmas card from Pepe, but he seems like a smart egg. He’s now Director of Economic Forecasting at Scotiabank Economics. His latest report’s a good read. “Barring any significant escalation in the current geopolitical crisis, core and total inflation will likely peak in mid-2022,” he writes.

That’s the good news. The not-so-good is that to get there Nikita sees the US Fed raising interest rates way more than anyone dreamed a month ago. The CB’s core rate, he says, could travel from the current 1.5-1.75% range to 4.75% by this time next year. Yikes. A 3% hit coming.

Just to be clear, Canada will follow. Over 90% of the time our central bank has aped the Fed, and given our weak dollar we cannot allow American rates to trump ours. As you know, our guys are now at 1.5%. Next Wednesday that will move to 2.25%. If this economist is calling it right, the Bank of Canada benchmark will be at 4.5% next year with the chartered bank prime at 6.7%. HELOCs will be 7.2%. variables above 6% and five-year fixed home loans around 8%.

Remember when mortgages were 2% and the steerage section told you it was “impossible” for them to ever inflate? The paleos were bemused. The kiddos continued to borrow. And, lo, it came to pass. Next time listen to daddy.

About the picture: “This is my daughter’s dog,” writes the poster poetically known as Dharma Bum. “Louie the Chihuahua – curious about his likeness in a painting of him done by my daughter’s friend. Like looking in a mirror.”

174 comments ↓

#1 Søren Angst on 07.05.22 at 3:59 pm

“oil’s tumbling…cratering more than 8% today”

7.98% to be precise as I type. Who cares, it throws off +45% divs monthly.

SO THERE.

8.11% as I type this. Finito. – Garth

#2 Søren Angst on 07.05.22 at 4:08 pm

“The paleos were bemused. The kiddos continued to borrow. And, lo, it came to pass. Next time listen to daddy.”

Too funny.

But OH.SO.TRUE.

High Inflation peaks mid-2022?

It’s July 2022 Garth, like now.

If in mid-2023 comes the peak, that means mid-2024 back to normal? 1 year to peak. Probably 1 year to normalize.

= 2 more years of misery with the caveat of large CB rate increases yet to come.

The long and winding road. I’ve seen that road before.

– Daddy.

#3 Søren Angst on 07.05.22 at 4:09 pm

8.11% as I type this. Finito. – Garth

😅😅😅

#4 Cheese on 07.05.22 at 4:16 pm

I just picked up more XEG, am I the greater fool?

#5 dave on 07.05.22 at 4:18 pm

If there is a cap on Russian oil and Putin turns off the taps in return.

Oil will go thru the roof – will this trigger even greater interest rates?

#6 Mr Wenslydale on 07.05.22 at 4:19 pm

Phewf. Foreign currency: check. The €uro I make while living in Canada isn’t doing so hot either at the moment, but I’ll take it any day over the loonie.

Meanwhile, realtors in wee twee Dundas, Ontario – recently discovered hiding in plain sight right next to the GTA – haven’t quite got the memo yet: https://www.realtor.ca/real-estate/24577353/62-alma-street-dundas 1.375M…good grief.

#7 Chuck Palahniuk on 07.05.22 at 4:20 pm

Without just one nest
A bird can call the world home
Life is your career.

Fight Club

#8 Søren Angst on 07.05.22 at 4:23 pm

Italia Travel Tips (& Schweiz)

DRY. UN-FROZEN. WET.

DRY
Histrionic BBC today declares that Italia’s Po River Valley in the North has precipitated a “Drought Emergency”.
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-62046165

In fact, it is such a HUGE emergency that Gov Italia earmarked this much money in relief funds: €36.5M.
https://www.governo.it/it/articolo/comunicato-stampa-del-consiglio-dei-ministri-n-86/20201
[some emergency]

Meanwhile, just North of the Po River Valley and over the border, the Swiss have flooding due to heavy thunderstorms:
https://www.20min.ch/video/heftige-gewitter-sorgen-fuer-hochwasser-und-fluten-mit-schlamm-und-holz-318652674546

UN-FROZEN – what made front page news here in Italia (not the “drought”)
People decided in +30 deg C weather they would climb on or put themselves in the path of the leading edge of the Marmolada Glacier – you know, the part that’s visibly melting into stream water.

A chunk of the leading edge of the glacier broke off. 20 casualties.

7 dead, oodles of UAVs, Rescue Dogs and wary Protezione Civile personnel looking for the remaining 13 people missing – also a video of the slide aftermath:
https://www.fanpage.it/live/crollo-marmolada-news-di-oggi-7-morti-accertati-ancora-13-dispersi-draghi-lavorare-perche-non-accada-piu/

The moment the slide happened from afar, looks innocuous but alas it wasn’t:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w0rJMMXHcQI

WET
No water shortage here in Pordenone, NE Italia – swimming in it (2 underground rivers that surface as artesian torrents requiring spillways + 1 above ground river). Nonetheless, I am conserving water (ya, I’ve gone PC – imagine that).

RE not the only thing that is local, so is water in the N of Italia.

Cooled off today, only 33 deg C (then again, meteo.it lies so as not to scare “I Turisti” away, so add +2 deg min. for the truth).

#9 Earlybird on 07.05.22 at 4:24 pm

Wow…8% 5 year fixed rate?? Ill eat my cowboy hat when I see that….too much carnage…

#10 Squire on 07.05.22 at 4:25 pm

This will all come to pass like a hurricane or forest fire passes but it’s the damage left that matters.
Can we just work on turfing these Libs – sheesh. Their incompetence is mind-numbing

#11 Taxman on 07.05.22 at 4:25 pm

“If this economist is calling it right, the Bank of Canada benchmark will be at 4.5% next year with the chartered bank prime at 6.7%. HELOCs will be 7.2%. variables above 6% and five-year fixed home loans around 8%.”

But 50 years amortization will save prices from falling?

#12 Ben on 07.05.22 at 4:27 pm

1st is ever elusive on this blog.

#13 Politicians on 07.05.22 at 4:27 pm

Let us stop thinking politicians don’t know what they are doing. That they did something because they are dumb and don’t know any better.

They know EXACTLY what the are doing. And why.

The fact the sheeple think they don’t and the sheeple think the are thus smarter than their politicians is the best scam politicians ever pulled.

#14 Penny Henny on 07.05.22 at 4:31 pm

Surviving a time when we have war, inflation, a broken supply chain, macho central bankers, political radicals on both sides, 6% mortgages and Drake singing with the Back Street Boys (now between ages 38 and 46) you may think there’s no hope.-Garth

//////////////////

That’s some pretty impressive Boy Band trivia you have got squirreled away Garth.
Tell us, who’s your favorite?

#15 Taxman on 07.05.22 at 4:31 pm

If inflation has peaked, why would the Fed need to raise the core rate that high?

#16 mj on 07.05.22 at 4:33 pm

in the last two weeks the 5 year Canada bond yield has fallen a lot. I believe it’s fear of recession. If we enter a recession, would the yield drop more, and in turn drop the rate of a 5 year mortgage ?

#17 Sam on 07.05.22 at 4:35 pm

Gold isn’t an inflation hedge. It’s a safe haven for when folks lose faith in their respective currencies. It’s performed extremely well based upon that thesis. Although real estate is softening I don’t see any major loss in my area of Vaughan. Maybe the northern suburbs are bringing down the average or the sales mix has changed. Real estate has been the best investment. Btw balanced ETFs are down 20% too.

Wrong on all counts. – Garth

#18 ETF Investor on 07.05.22 at 4:36 pm

When you talk about holding 25% of investments in US$, would an ETF (like VGRO for example) with more than a quarter of its holdings being U.S. equities, qualify?

US$, not US just assets. – Garth

#19 Hip Hop Lesson on USD on 07.05.22 at 4:37 pm

DELETED (Profane)

#20 Shawn on 07.05.22 at 4:38 pm

Oil slipped below $100 U.S.

$100 U.S. is now $130 Canadian. Western Canadian Select is $80 real U.S. dollars. That’s $104 Canadian dollars. Canadian oil producers have almost all their costs in Canadian dollars so real nice to have their revenues in U.S. dollars.

Alberta will be okay. At $120 U.S. we were drowning in cash. Now merely swimming in it. Doing the back stroke mostly.

There is such a thing as an embarrassment of riches. This little dip is okay. We can mollify the easterners with gasoline back under $2.

Alberta is still the place to be in this country. We don’t worry about house prices here. Nor about oil prices these days.

Maybe buy a bank here. Canadian Western Bank is a definite bargain to consider.

#21 Frank on 07.05.22 at 4:41 pm

1.5m mortgage at 8% is 11.5k a month, let’s hope it doesn’t get there.

#22 Brett in Calgary on 07.05.22 at 4:43 pm

“If this economist is calling it right, the Bank of Canada benchmark will be at 4.5% next year with the chartered bank prime at 6.7%. HELOCs will be 7.2%. variables above 6% and five-year fixed home loans around 8%.”

This should terrify people, although I think ‘this economist’ is a bit of interest-rate bull, housing is cooked like dinner at 8%. If rates rise from 5% (now-ish for a fixed 5-er) to 8%, a first-time schmuck like me could expect to pay another $1200/month on a $500k house. Why would I do that?

#23 Taxman on 07.05.22 at 4:43 pm

Also, you rock Garth! Merci pour tout ton aide!

#24 MSM on Housing on 07.05.22 at 4:48 pm

Main Street media is starting to set up triage with deep insightful pieces like this one, that is not at all factual and barely an option. Half the comments on this blog have deeper insight than this.

There there…it’s all gonna be fine world wide perhaps, but Canada?

https://financialpost.com/executive/executive-summary/posthaste-why-this-housing-slump-wont-be-as-bad-as-2008

#25 Victoria on 07.05.22 at 4:52 pm

I still keep hearing housing isn’t going down in Victoria and it is untouchable….

#26 Leon Umsk on 07.05.22 at 4:53 pm

The back street boys I’m sorry I missed that, they must pay the audience decently to show up for that. But then drake also the audience must have really been well compensated to be subjected to all of that.

#27 Søren Angst on 07.05.22 at 4:53 pm

Way off topic.

McBugski. McMoldska.

https://www.newsweek.com/mcdonalds-russia-vkusno-mold-bugs-burger-1721715

What next?

Egg McChicks
Moskva Nuggets (think that one thru)

…well, if nothing else the OJ and Orange come with a couple, three shots of palette numbing Stolichnaya to take the edge off/sanitize the “food”.

#28 Brian on 07.05.22 at 5:00 pm

Meltdown for Johnson’s government – will the PM survive resignations?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VkKmPQ1AFks

When will we hear this from our Liberal Party?

#29 Jay (not that one) on 07.05.22 at 5:01 pm

Talk about “one screen, two movies”…

From where I’m sitting, us equities got the hardest hit on the planet Earth. There was a bit of a forex win for now, but who cares when your assets are all in the trash, and going down further? I’m expecting there could be a long buying opportunity around q1 2023, but it’s gonna get worse before it gets better. On average the market is still priced the same as it was in 2019, before anyone had heard of the word covid. Do you feel like the economy is doing as good as it was in 2019? I don’t.

As for gold, I think it really depends on where you set your time horizon. It hasn’t done good in the last month, but it has been doing pretty good since 2019. It may not be shooting up now, because it’s already made its move back when the inflation happened.

#30 Regjeg on 07.05.22 at 5:04 pm

FRU paying 7.28%. Picking up some more after today’s share price slide.

#31 Scott in Gibsons on 07.05.22 at 5:07 pm

Even if inflation went to zero today, aren’t current prices high enough to cause a reset of consumer spending and weakening the profitability of certain businesses? Would it not require deflation to return to the investing world we once knew? If the new normal includes reduced purchasing power then we are all now poorer and global demand should fall. We can no longer afford to consume as much as we did before. This seems like more than your typical correction/bump in the road.

#32 GOLD IS COMING BACK! on 07.05.22 at 5:09 pm

Garth, your analysis is interesting but ignores the huge geopolitical changes coming at us fast.

Elephant in the room: Global chaos and Gold

Great article today in the Star about dramatic changes coming to hit the US dollar hard, and likely make Gold a big alternative around the planet.

Remember – about 80% of nations have chosen not to go against Russia (with its Chinese friends) over Ukraine.

Giant Shakeup Looms – The US Might Be the Big Loser

https://www.thestar.com/business/opinion/2022/07/05/a-giant-shakeup-looms-for-the-world-financial-order-and-the-us-might-be-the-big-loser.html

“The writing is on the wall that some form of change is imminent, and a global monetary system reset may already be underway. According to Credit Suisse, this new economic order will revolve around commodity-based currencies. These commodity-based currencies will further weaken the Eurodollar system, which will be much weaker after the war between Russia and Ukraine ends.

How all these things evolve, and their timing, are beyond anyone’s forecasting abilities, but something will eventually replace the U.S. dollar as the sole dominant global reserve currency, perhaps sooner than anyone expects.

I expect, at the very least, an “alternative trading” currency to emerge and compete with the dollar. This new currency would be used solely for settling trades between nations as opposed to a reserve currency that central banks normally use for diversification. Admittedly, this is sheer speculation and the eventual outcome is anyone’s guess.

If you find my prediction shocking, consider the facts. For 400 years, global reserve currencies have come and gone. The reserve currencies of Spain, the Netherlands, and Britain (to name a few) typically have a lifespan of, give or take, 100 years. The reasons for the demise of reserve currencies are repeated over and over. For a great read on this topic, pick up a copy of Ray Dalio’s “Principles for Dealing with the Changing World Order” or if you are rushed for time, search for his YouTube video, which explains it in very simple terms. Tragically, when global powers lose their dominant reserve status, bloody wars usually follow.”

This is enormous, Garth and fellow blog readers.

Gold IS coming back, because US power IS going away.

It will likely be some kind of dramatic hybrid model, but one that hits us much sooner than we think.

Down $40 an ounce today. That’s a funny way of ‘coming back’. You bullion-lickers never quit. – Garth

#33 cramar on 07.05.22 at 5:09 pm

The following is an example of just how totally screwed up the RE market is in Canada. I accidentally came across this ad listing when I was researching golf courses.

———

3-BR, 2-BA 1,327 sq. ft. home on 3/4 acre. Built 2020, just north of Myrtle Beach in South Carolina.

Asking $279,900.

https://www.homes.com/property/114-saint-barnabas-rd-loris-sc-29569/id-1000085076072/

———–

You’ve got to be kidding!? For the price of a downpayment in the GTA, you can own a nice place in the U.S. OUTRIGHT! No mortgage!

The moistures are so screwed in Canada!

#34 Søren Angst on 07.05.22 at 5:13 pm

Good point on the $US Garth.

Half of my Threadbare Portfolio in $US, rest $Cdn. Only Int’l exposure via Cdn Oil ETF. Just don’t have the funds to internationalize, in Canada and America I trust.

$US funds have helped cushion today’s oil drop shock for me.

Still, I bought oil last Summer…could see recent events coming (don’t ask, don’t tell) so in pretty good shape stock price wise.

YTD Time Weighted Return going back up for me = +5.9%, was a fearful +4% end of last week.

Still a kick in the nards from the double digit returns I had a few weeks ago.

—————–

Patience. Staying vested. Buying more end of week.

#35 Freedom First on 07.05.22 at 5:17 pm

There is a reason why this Blog is the #1 Financial Blog in Canada. There is also some posters in steerage that know what is going on in the world. To Canadians that have everything f’d up in their lives right now by personal choices they have made, I can only say, “Stupid can’t be fixed, but ignorance is a choice”.

Freedom First

#36 Reality. Check on 07.05.22 at 5:18 pm

MSM on Housing on 07.05.22 at 4:48 pm
Main Street media is starting to set up triage with deep insightful pieces like this one, that is not at all factual and barely an option. Half the comments on this blog have deeper insight than this.

There there…it’s all gonna be fine world wide perhaps, but Canada?
———————

Ya I read that and didn’t really get his comparison.

My recollection is that the 2008 “correction” in Canada was modest and short lived.

Also 2022 RE affordability metrics in major Canadian markets are elephantine versus US metrics circa 2007.

But who knows. Canadians seem to wear high houses as a badge of honor.

#37 Big Bucks on 07.05.22 at 5:28 pm

Nikita thinks inflation will peak mid 2022?That can’t be right —does he mean mid 2023?

#38 Søren Angst on 07.05.22 at 5:34 pm

#4 Cheese

YTD you aren’t:

+29%

Though div yields paltry & inconsistent:

https://ycharts.com/companies/XEG.TO/dividend_yield

I like NXF better. +9.9% YTD with a div yield of 8.7% qrtrly, YTD Daily Total Return = 24.35%. Divs going up so far:

https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/NXF.TO/history?period1=1625520780&period2=1657056780&interval=capitalGain%7Cdiv%7Csplit&filter=div&frequency=1d&includeAdjustedClose=true

——————

If you’re young, go for the price appreciation of XEG.

If you’re retired like me I like the div cash flow better instead of the capital gain + the Cdn div preferential tax treatment.

#39 Linda on 07.05.22 at 5:40 pm

‘Louie’ has a pretty portrait:)

I read a headline that ‘peak’ inflation in the USA is expected to top out at 9% mid-2022, with a forecasted drop to a mere 7% by year end. The crystal ball gazers are predicting inflation to run between 3 to 4 percent for 2023 with the caveat that no further unexpected ructions come along to upset the apple cart. Should that occur its anyone’s guess as to how things pan out. They are also anticipating at least a mild recession to occur no later than 2023.

#40 Søren Angst on 07.05.22 at 5:41 pm

#25 Victoria

Think again.

https://twitter.com/LeoSpalteholz/status/1544154407427665925

https://househuntvictoria.ca/2022/06/07/busted-benchmark/

#41 Hip Hop Lesson on USD on 07.05.22 at 5:43 pm

DELETED (Profane)

I figured there would be some leeway with art. Especially with that group.

Are slave masters not on the US Dollars? I believe that is factual, and on subject since were talking USD.

#42 JSS on 07.05.22 at 5:48 pm

I would be interested in buying a bank stock like CWB for $20 a common share. And I believe it will be coming. This will provide around 6.2% yield.

It’s currently around $25/share.

#43 crowdedelevatorfartz on 07.05.22 at 5:50 pm

@#14 Penny Henny
“That’s some pretty impressive Boy Band trivia you have got squirreled away Garth.
Tell us, who’s your favorite?”
+++
I nominate everyone’s fave….
Faron.

#44 Faron on 07.05.22 at 5:52 pm

#137 Old Boot on 07.05.22 at 3:38 pm

When all you’ve got is a hammer, everything looks like a nail.

#45 everafter on 07.05.22 at 5:59 pm

so is the Victoria real estate board lying ??

latest post is sales down BUT price increases

#46 Yukon Elvis on 07.05.22 at 6:04 pm

Recall how this know-it-all blog told you to keep a quarter of your shekels in US$, like, always?

There’s a reason to hold US dollar-denominated ETFs, and from time-to-time you know why. Like now. In a world where it seems everything (including your house, but not your used 4Runner) is losing value, the Yankee dollar has once again emerged as the safest haven around.
++++++++++++++++++

How about the mighty Russian Ruble ? The strongest and most stable currency in the world. You never mention that. Arf arf, woof woof, and bow wow. Here is a link to Konstantine in Russia for those who might be interested in what is happening there.

https://youtu.be/IAGZvbpRks0

#47 T-Rev on 07.05.22 at 6:09 pm

Fixed fivers at 8%? Aren’t those set by the bond market, and aren’t yields now falling? I woulda guessed a month ago they’d peak at 7% later this year / early next, but it seems as if they may already be cresting. If yields are falling/plateauing, doesn’t that mean fixed rates are likely to follow? Or are you seeing 5 year yields (now at 3% down from a peak of 3.6% two weeks ago) continuing to climb after this pause?

#48 None on 07.05.22 at 6:13 pm

How do I set up for potential opportunities with buy a house?

Basically, I don’t care about housing. I just want a cheap place to live. I’ve said it before, my rent sucks ($2500 for 2-bed; single income) but it’s better than jumping into this very likely bubble. Yeah it sucks.

So if housing crunches (it has to at 6% variable) will that bring down rental prices? If not, then I may jump into buying a house IF owning is cheaper than renting.

Is my only real strategy with the forecasted bottom to be 2025 to stash cash into GICs? I need to figure out how much money i need to hoard. In Victoria, BC, it’s never going to be cheap.

#49 Faron on 07.05.22 at 6:14 pm

@#14 Penny Henny

I nominate everyone’s fave….
Faron

We’ll, I am boyishly handsome.

It’s a bit punk-rock, but “Faron and the Slime Skimmers” has a fitting ring to it.

#50 baloney Sandwitch on 07.05.22 at 6:14 pm

#33 – Why would you want to buy a house in a country where you can be randomly shot while watching a parade?

#51 calgaryPhantom on 07.05.22 at 6:21 pm

Meanwhile, I am standing in a virtual queue for last 10 hours here in Qatar. Hoping to get in the prestigious ticketing portal for FIFA 2022. Plain crazy!!!

I can now imagine how it would feel to queue up and participate in a blind bidding process for a house…. Feels like there are just too many people and too little supply….

#52 Ken R on 07.05.22 at 6:26 pm

#33 – Why would you want to buy a house in a country where you can be randomly shot while watching a parade?

Or carjacked in Toronto on your way to the grocery store?

#53 Shawn on 07.05.22 at 6:27 pm

#41 JSS on 07.05.22 at 5:48 pm
I would be interested in buying a bank stock like CWB for $20 a common share. And I believe it will be coming. This will provide around 6.2% yield.

It’s currently around $25/share.

**************************************
Was it not you who said recently you would buy at $24 for a 5% yield? If it hits $20 you will say buy at $18?

I have book value at $33.70. So it’s for sale now at 75 cents on the dollar of book value. In a province swimming in cash.

#54 Stone on 07.05.22 at 6:30 pm

But the key to minimizing risk, successfully hunkering through the storm and positioning for inevitable recovery is … tada… diversification. Own different assets. Have exposure to different regions. Earn income in different ways. Hold different currencies.

———

Totally agree. Gotta love the B&D portfolio. My month end review is posted. Even I was shocked to see my dividend yield sitting at 3.4805%.

https://www.fomotina.com/monthly-portfolio-update-june-2022/

#55 Reno Nation on 07.05.22 at 6:30 pm

Buy your American homes to rent out and upgrade during your falls and winters as a snowbird in the States. Couch surf or camp during the summers in Canada. Ka- Ching!
What you save and what you make will put you on easy street in no time.

#56 Nicolas on 07.05.22 at 6:31 pm

#18 ETF Investor

There is zero difference between owning US-listed ETFs and having US ETF exposure (un-hedged) on the TSE.

VFV popped nicely today because of this.

#57 Habitt on 07.05.22 at 6:32 pm

Thanks for the post Garth. Those BC numbers would be devastating for folk that bought recently. And more to come. Keep up your great work educating us all.

#58 Md on 07.05.22 at 6:43 pm

I love these “i told you so” posts. They make me feel all warm and fuzzy inside! Until i realize I’ve read these posts before and then something “happened” and somehow the RE market was saved and things continued on as per usual…

Hopefully you got it right this time Garth…. It’s been long overdue.

Declines are declines. I’d say the speculation is over. – Garth

#59 crowdedelevatorfartz on 07.05.22 at 6:47 pm

@#48 Faron
“It’s a bit punk-rock, but “Faron and the Slime Skimmers” has a fitting ring to it.”
+++
Sounds better than the Ponzie and the Fabulous Fartastics

#60 JSS on 07.05.22 at 6:49 pm

#52 Shawn.

$33.70? You paid too much.

#61 Brian on 07.05.22 at 6:53 pm

For all the WFH’rs!

A Rude Awakening Is Ahead for Young Employees
A recession will hand the bargaining power to their bosses.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/rude-awakening-ahead-for-young-employees-unemployment-job-market-inflation-competition-layoffs-job-hopping-security-11656942280?mod=hp_opin_pos_1

#62 Don Guillermo on 07.05.22 at 7:00 pm

#51 Ken R on 07.05.22 at 6:26 pm
#33 – Why would you want to buy a house in a country where you can be randomly shot while watching a parade?

Or carjacked in Toronto on your way to the grocery store?
********
I hear you. I have a house on a local Mexican street in Mazatlàn. A few months ago my neighbor had his bicycle stolen in broad daylight. I should have known better.

#63 When the Whip Comes Down on 07.05.22 at 7:01 pm

You didn’t show any data on the island but was mentioned in your statement before the sentence ‘its different in bc baby”.

Can you include anything?

#64 When the Whip Comes Down on 07.05.22 at 7:06 pm

Let’s mark our calendars for next year this time. Will be interesting to see if those rates Nikita implies materialize. I really doubt it. Way higher than now for sure but I don’t think as far as he speculates right now. Far too extreme.

#65 Barb on 07.05.22 at 7:20 pm

Not to mince words but is there a chance the blog could use a synonym for the word “trump”…

Google suggests: outshine, outclass, upstage, eclipse, surpass, outdo, outperform, beat, better…

Maybe OUTDO? same number of keystrokes.

#66 Ken From BC on 07.05.22 at 7:24 pm

Adding to Mr Turners comments on the Vancouver and area drop in house prices, this website offers some insite (my realtycheck.ca). The charts tell the tail of the tape (MOM declines lately).

#67 Faron on 07.05.22 at 7:28 pm

#8 Søren Angst on 07.05.22 at 4:23 pm

Italia Travel Tips (& Schweiz)

DRY. UN-FROZEN. WET.

Not to often a glacier makes the news unless it’s a chunk of an Antarctic ice shelf the size of a small US state falling off. Here’s my hypothesis as a glaciologist:

High melt rates, especially somewhat early in the season lead to high water pressure at the bed of the glacier. That high water pressure can reduce basal friction to be small enough that the bed is no longer supporting the shear stress across it. At that point it’s up to the tensile strength of the ice. In this case, that wasn’t sufficient to hold the thing together and the nose fell off.

Is it climate change? Yes. In this case certainly. Why? Because 30 years ago, that glacier was longer and would have had support from the slopes below. Climate change has reduced glacier lengths rapidly over recent decades. The heat wave certainly didn’t help the situation.

#68 Grommet on 07.05.22 at 7:33 pm

No price decline on the Danforth. 28 Cavell just sold $300k+ over ask:

https://housesigma.com/bkv2/landing/rootpage/listing?id_listing=amgL7A4GBEmyZ1MW&utm_campaign=listing&utm_source=user-share&utm_medium=iOS&ign=

Did you just fall for the old list-under-market gimmick? – Garth

#69 Faron on 07.05.22 at 7:33 pm

Galloping dollar is bad for the global economy, especially commodities. Oil and metals showed that today.

Dollar goes up when entities dump US bonds. Because… they sell them for dollars. China is a major holder of US Federal debt. Their stores are being converted to cash causing increased demand for dollars and decreased demand for bonds. Rising rates and rising DXY.

#70 wallflower on 07.05.22 at 7:36 pm

Who Wants to be buying a house in a country where you can be randomly shot going to the bank?

ahhhh thinking maybe the list of eligible non-shot countries is pretty slim

#49 baloney Sandwitch on 07.05.22 at 6:14 pm
#33 – Why would you want to buy a house in a country where you can be randomly shot while watching a parade?

#71 jerry on 07.05.22 at 7:40 pm

“So is the Victoria real estate board lying ??

latest post is sales down BUT price increases”

They’re not lying but they are using the HPI benchmark price which is a lagging indicator. To top it off the Victoria real estate board also changed the way they measure the HPI some months back. Most Realtors use median price to figure out current market prices. Victoria median prices for single family homes has been falling and is down 9 percent the past 3 months while the lagging HPI benchmark shows prices going up the last 3 months.

#72 Victor Llearna on 07.05.22 at 7:44 pm

SHeep finally llearning that interest rates can inflate. They thought Justin Trudeau wouldnt let that happen. Maybe Trudeau’s election platform in 2025 will be to spend billions bailing out the sheep losing their houses

#73 Flop… on 07.05.22 at 8:00 pm

Trouble in Garthville?

You can always move to Flopville, we can make room for 2 more and a dog.

It’s about 700k for a decent condo now, a new construction house will set you back around 3 million.

You can always rent, like I do, I think a decent place can be had for around 2k a month.

I don’t pay anywhere near that, as I struck an agreement with the landlord to be able to yell out the window “Enjoy your day at work, you loser renter”, whenever it tickles his fancy in the morning.

Plus side of Garth moving to Flopville, pretty peaceful and tolerant bunch, plus you only have to walk across the road to visit the resting place of your pioneering relatives.

Negative side, some meathead yelling out random stuff like, “What do you think of my plan to invest this years TFSA contribution, the day after The State The Union Address?”, while trying to walk your dog…

M48BC

#74 Bob from Edmonton on 07.05.22 at 8:04 pm

So what happens to oil when the US stops draining the strategic petroleum reserve and has to start filling it up again?

Why did Saudia Arabia raise the price of oil today? Is it because they think oil demand is decreasing?

What about the civil war that is close to breaking out in Libya? How many barrels of day is that going to take offline? Will it become a proxy US/Russia war? Russia has every incentive to want high oil prices.

I think the price of oil will be a lot closer to $150 (or more) a barrel by December and that this slight dip is temporary due to lack of new supply/reduction of available supplies. Oil investment has decreased significantly the last few years so there will be no new supply to crash the market as in previous oil booms.

#75 AK on 07.05.22 at 8:11 pm

“The CB’s core rate, he says, could travel from the current 1.5-1.75% range to 4.75% by this time next year.”
=================================

Let’s hope they get there, and stay there.

#76 Ustabe on 07.05.22 at 8:15 pm

To equate what is going on civically and politically in the US to Toronto or even Mexico is a vacuous and specious argument.

If your best friend is self harming, exhibiting behaviors that will cost his job, drinking way to much you don’t say well there is a guy in Toronto who is similar. You get/give/offer what help you can.

Those who can’t or won’t see that the US is in trouble need to wake up.

#77 "NUTS!" on 07.05.22 at 8:27 pm

I find some of the common reactions, well, let’s just say cute. To fundamentally believe that there is no way we will see 5yr terms of 8% simply because of the damage it would cause is naive, oh and cute. But I understand that these individuals have no reference points in their reasonably secured existence. However, those of us who remember playing with Klackers and using a Key for our roller skates remember the carnage that IS possible and CAN happen.

I’m not saying it will happen, but boy do I ever remember that it certainly can. I plan accordingly.

#78 Warren-the-lagging_indicator on 07.05.22 at 8:41 pm

The largest %dip in capped energy index today since covid began. Short lived though as demand destruction starts around $150. Inelastic demand coupled with compounding supply constraints means…. well just cool your fear with FCF.

#79 TurnerNation on 07.05.22 at 8:48 pm

Update on the permanent rolling Economic & Social Lockdowns.
Being tested first in the 2nd World countries?
Control over Travel/movement – are you surprised by now? Smells a bit like… a #reset.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-06-27/sri-lanka-is-put-on-virtual-lockdown-as-fuel-supplies-are-halted
“Sri Lanka Under Virtual Lockdown With Fuel Supplies Halted for Private Cars
Distribution to be limited to essential services until July 10
Prime minister had said economy has ‘completely collapsed’”



Life in Kanada. Guess what will be happening to us this Fall/wintertime. No guess, go on have one guess.
Seems to be rollout first in 2nd World — this is about a virus or are humans the virus to be controlled??
Year 2.5 of at least 5 years. Your call.

.Government urged to reimpose strict measures against Covid (bangkokpost.com)

.UK: Fears surging Covid cases could ruin summer holidays with return of tests and rules (mirror.co.uk)

.More parts of China battle Covid and threats of lockdown as cases spike (vervetimes.com)

.Turkey Experiences 80% Inflation, Doubled Cost of Food (cnn.com)

#80 Shawn on 07.05.22 at 8:49 pm

Book Value

#60 JSS on 07.05.22 at 6:49 pm
#52 Shawn.

$33.70? You paid too much.

***********************
$33.70 has nothing to do with what I paid. Its’s the book value of the company based on total equity on the balance sheet divided by the share count.

Anyhow, banks are highly leveraged and so can be risky. Buy or not at your own risk.

#81 crowdedelevatorfartz on 07.05.22 at 8:49 pm

@#77 Klackers and Keys
“However, those of us who remember playing with Klackers and using a Key for our roller skates remember the carnage that IS possible and CAN happen.”
+++
Seat belts were for sissys and 8 track tapes in cars…..the song stopped half way and rewound to the other side……
:0

#82 DJT on 07.05.22 at 8:50 pm

Once PP is elected Canadians and our Loony will be safe from Trudeau and the WEF.

#83 crowdedelevatorfartz on 07.05.22 at 8:57 pm

@#138 The watcher

This last minute Canada Day firework ban?

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FWbkuALWQAAZeKV?format=jpg&name=medium

It doesnt take small town bylaw nazis to ruin a good thing……
You should come to Vancouver aka “No Fun City”

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=e5y3tIauES0

#84 Dr V on 07.05.22 at 9:07 pm

63 Whip

“Can you include anything?”
—————————————-

See my comments from yesterday with link to VIREB
which excludes Victoria.

#85 Ponzius Pilatus on 07.05.22 at 9:11 pm

#130 Dr V on 07.05.22 at 1:00 pm
128 Dragonfly
“After months of delay ALR finally approved my property for re development with 2 houses.”
—————————————————–
Congrats and good work dragonfly. The ALR is not an easy beast to tame.
Generally, the commission wants to encourage farming, or at the very least not hinder or reduce its viability. They issued this bulletin a few years back for more clarity on the second dwelling.
https://www.alc.gov.bc.ca/assets/alc/assets/legislation-and-regulation/information-bulletins/ib_05_residences_in_the_alr.pdf
Do you only have approval for the second dwelling, or do you have approval to subdivide (very rare)?
———————-
Good to hear that the ALR is not just a paper tiger.
Ingenious legislation enacted by the NDP.
Some say it’s driving up housing costs.
That’s probably true.
But with the Worldwide food shortage now and more to come in the future, the ALR will become a game changer.

#86 Ronaldo on 07.05.22 at 9:12 pm

Gold is actually holding up pretty well in our currency. Dec. 31/21 – 2313 Currently – 2309 down 3.00

#87 Warren-the-lagging_indicator on 07.05.22 at 9:15 pm

Unless of course the USD keeps ramping up like this then that number 150 drops real quick. I guess that would be pretty deflationary. At this point we can all be pretty well assured that deflation is what is around the bend. With all the inversion and all.

#88 Dr V on 07.05.22 at 9:16 pm

62 Don G

“A few months ago my neighbor had his bicycle stolen in broad daylight.”
—————————————————–

Yeah, it’s getting bad in lots of places.

https://www.standard.co.uk/insider/bike-wars-cyclists-london-violent-moped-gangs-richmond-park-b960428.html

#89 TurnerNation on 07.05.22 at 9:21 pm

Taxes/Health care. This why we are in a Former First World Country.
How’s that ‘hospital capacity’ these days guys?

“Two young ER doctors quit Montreal jobs, blaming Quebec’s broken health-care system and Bill 96….
Montreal alone is short 18,399 health-care workers, according to the government’s July 4 health-care system dashboard.
https://montreal.ctvnews.ca/two-young-er-doctors-quit-montreal-jobs-blaming-quebec-s-broken-health-care-system-and-bill-96-1.5974759

——- From the Killing Us Softly Dept.: As noted, if you want a fast ride to the hospital call a taxi. If you actually want to live, have them drive you to the USA.

.’A nurse can’t be everywhere’: Health care staff shortages prompt Ontario ER closures (cp24.com)


— If you are a homeowner the recourse you had against crime, break ins, assault is rapidly being removed.
Welcome to your fetid, crowded UN Smart Cities:

https://www.thestar.com/politics/federal/2022/07/04/hundreds-of-thousands-of-canadians-could-see-their-drug-possession-records-disappear.html
The bill would also repeal mandatory minimum sentences for all drug offences and some firearm offences; expand the use of conditional sentences, such as house arrest; and require police and prosecutors to use their discretion to keep drug possession cases out of the courts.

#90 sean on 07.05.22 at 9:25 pm

RE: #45 everafter on 07.05.22 at 5:59 pm

Is the real estate board lying?

——
Yes.

#91 I don't know on 07.05.22 at 9:26 pm

“Also, a note for the doomers and USA-haters. The American dollar is proving once again it rules as the globe’s currency. This is a safe haven. Given a choice, everyone on the planet would rather be paid in Benjamins. Never in the lifetime of anyone now old enough to install their own socks will this cease to be the case. The US$ is the reserve currency. Ensure you own some.”

-Correct, and as expected.

Peel away the layers a bit, and you will see that most people loudly proclaiming the imminent end of USD reserve status don’t actually think it will happen, but instead are only really really hoping it does. In this case, hope does not mean reality.

The others who actually do think the USD is losing reserve status? A lost cause.

IDK

#92 Wrk.dover on 07.05.22 at 9:36 pm

After gobs of borrowing in ’80 and ’81, I had the mother of all debt hangovers in ’82. Then easily borrowed 25% more in ’83, followed by four years of full and final paydown.

Maybe it isn’t different this time.

But the first 3/4 of 1982 was just nasty.

M68.9NS

#93 Ponzius Pilatus on 07.05.22 at 9:40 pm

Some people I know, have a new Tesla.
To test it out they decided spontaneously to make a “fun” trip to Penticton
Booked a hotel and left Vancouver at 7.00 p.m.
Usually, it takes about 4 1/2 hours.
As they came to Merrit, they decided to charge up for the second half of the trip.
Surprise, there was a five hour wait at the charging station.
Arrived about 5:am at the hotel.
Good timing.
Time for breakfast.

#94 Ponzius Pilatus on 07.05.22 at 9:47 pm

Nikita?
I thought these guys were all sanctioned now.
Can’t have them spying around.

#95 Doug t on 07.05.22 at 9:50 pm

#89 Turnernation

Good stuff buddy

#96 Ponzius Pilatus on 07.05.22 at 9:53 pm

88 Dr V on 07.05.22 at 9:16 pm
62 Don G

“A few months ago my neighbor had his bicycle stolen in broad daylight.”
—————————————————–

Yeah, it’s getting bad in lots of places.

https://www.standard.co.uk/insider/bike-wars-cyclists-london-violent-moped-gangs-richmond-park-b960428.html
———————
Wow, bicycle theft is making the News in Mechiko.
Because there are no decent cars to steal, I recon.

#97 Frankenumber on 07.05.22 at 9:57 pm

#71 jerry on 07.05.22 at 7:40 pm
“So is the Victoria real estate board lying ??

latest post is sales down BUT price increases”

They’re not lying but they are using the HPI benchmark price which is a lagging indicator. To top it off the Victoria real estate board also changed the way they measure the HPI some months back. Most Realtors use median price to figure out current market prices. Victoria median prices for single family homes has been falling and is down 9 percent the past 3 months while the lagging HPI benchmark shows prices going up the last 3 months.

—-

This is the whole idea of the board’s frankenumber HPI. They can scrub it and tweak it and massage it to suit purpose. It is absolutely criminal that it is allowed vs. straight up reporting of raw data.

#98 Sail Away on 07.05.22 at 10:17 pm

#89 TurnerNation on 07.05.22 at 9:21 pm

The bill would also repeal mandatory minimum sentences for all drug offences and some firearm offences; expand the use of conditional sentences, such as house arrest; and require police and prosecutors to use their discretion to keep drug possession cases out of the courts.

———

Yes, they are running short of enforcement personnel; 60% of available bodies have been assigned full-time to arch-criminal Tamara Lich.

#99 the Jaguar on 07.05.22 at 10:32 pm

#76 Ustabe on 07.05.22 at 8:15 pm – “Those who can’t or won’t see that the US is in trouble need to wake up.”

#91 I don’t know on 07.05.22 at 9:26 pm
“Peel away the layers a bit, and you will see that most people loudly proclaiming the imminent end of USD reserve status don’t actually think it will happen, but instead are only really really hoping it does. In this case, hope does not mean reality.The others who actually do think the USD is losing reserve status? A lost cause. IDK +++

‘Willful blindness, also known as conscious avoidance, is a judicially-made doctrine that expands the definition of knowledge to include closing one’s eyes to the high probability a fact exists.’ – Google.

It’s quite something to observe, evidence where one would least expect to find it. Everyone falls off the pedestal from time to time. No shame.

Just 120 days out now, but the jungle drums should be audible in more or less sixty days. As Kramer would say..” “I’m out there Jerry and I’m loving every minute of it.”.

#100 Sail Away on 07.05.22 at 10:33 pm

Well, in the US, Republican states are killing it on post-pandemic recovery, while Dem states decrease in both population and industry:

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.wsj.com/amp/articles/red-states-winning-post-pandemic-economy-migration-11657030536

Canada is sort of similar, with conservative Alberta being the shining star.

#101 THE DANDADA on 07.05.22 at 10:49 pm

Garth speaks….. I listen.

Then act.

That’s the secret sauce to life.

End of story!

#102 Diamond Dog on 07.05.22 at 10:58 pm

I can see peak inflation in May or June, it’s the right call. as for a 4.75% Fed rate, I don’t see it. I do hope the Fed keeps rates at around 3.5% into next summer, even though I think it would cause a major recession. However, I don’t see anything short of a major recession that will break price behavior unless the Fed wishes to prolong high inflation past next summer.

Could the U.S. slide into recession without hikes to even 2.25 0 2.5%? I think it’s likely. The Atlanta Fed has modeled GDP dipping to -2% at the end of June. It’s a model but sure it’s possible. The big question though is, how high do rates need to go and for how long to change price behavior?

The world sliding into recession will help tame inflation and the strength of the U.S. dollar will help. What can also help is North American rains. Western Canada and what’s known as the Palliser grain belt (stretches down to Montana and the Dakotas) has been getting decent rains (in corn country also as of late) that should translate into decent crops which should ease food prices and help some of the supply shock in groceries… in theory but at the end of the day, the Fed will have to suck money out of the supply to break price behavior.

I’ve been doing some thinking (oh, oh) about the U.S. economy coming off an everything bubble (here too) and since the trend is down for all sectors overall to varying degree’s not to mention the world, it could compress timelines of changing price behavior lowering inflation. I still think it will be April at the earliest before we see price behavior change and see inflation drop below 7% all things considered.

As for a Fed rate climbing as high as 4.75%, the Fed raised rates to 2.75% in 2018 – 2019 and it froze CCC bonds for 6 weeks. It was inferred that this is what made the Fed pump the breaks (I think it was more politically motivated to even go that high). We are likely to see CCC’s freeze up before 2.75% and BBB’s freeze in the 3’s, definitely in the 4’s. Anyone claiming a Fed rate could climb as high as 4.75% should ask themselves what triple B bonds freezing would mean to the U.S. economy as a whole.

We are talking municipal bonds, some corporate stuff that isn’t zombie, some public and private growth stopping dead in it’s tracks. Triple AAA’s, MBS volumes, I don’t it’s fully appreciated just what kind of an effect 4.75% would have on U.S. bond markets overall. I don’t want to use the word depression to describe it and who am I, its an opinion of an investor but that’s what I see, stuff would break in credit well before a 4.75% Fed rate.

The U.S. Fed really does have a strong influence on demand through credit conditions and the money supply. What they decide will largely determine where inflation heads in the next 12 months aside from the world macro.

We’ve seen commodity prices slip as of late but we should note that the U.S. dollar is strengthening relative to world currencies in part to a higher Fed rate. This is lowering the values of commodities priced in U.S. dollars to some degree (while raising prices elsewhere). The rest of it is weakening world demand. We are seeing this play out in base metals for example in China. China as we should know, consumes more than half of the world’s base metals and is going through a property bubble collapse:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SlRTMVcqn3Q

We speak of China as the #2 and next world superpower without fully appreciating the significance China’s real estate bubble has played in this. To put it into perspective, an online cut/paste:

China’s real-estate sector is huge. According to Goldman Sachs Group Inc., the total value of the market hit $52 trillion in 2019 — twice the size of the US residential housing market, The Wall Street Journal reported. The sector accounts for 29% of China’s gross domestic product (GDP).

If the numbers are correct below:

https://worldpopulationreview.com/country-rankings/median-income-by-country

Chinese GDP per Capita (PPP) is $ 16,829
U.S. GDP per Capita (PPP) is $ 65,297

The Chinese population is roughly 4x the U.S, while 4x Chinese income is roughly equal to the U.S. meaning values factoring in population and GDP per Capita are equivalent and yet, the Chinese real estate market is double U.S. valuations (2018).

We saw Japan move into #2 back in the late 80’s early 90’s with their everything bubble and watched Japanese markets still yet to recover from their peak 30+ years later. Will this happen to China? Watch the Youtube video above and you tell me.

As for Europe, with the Russian nuke power using commodities as a weapon of war, what could go wrong. It’s a mess. On one hand a united Europe would be I think, the world’s next superpower. On the other hand, it’s far from united with imperialist Russian mindsets becoming more ingrained with Russian state media propaganda, I hope Russia as a whole isn’t devolving into this if it hasn’t already but I do fear this is the case.

Can the U.S. limp along with blowout deficit spending through this decade, sure, only because there is no other viable alternative. It’s an ugly garden party. Can the U.S. economy go on indefinitely the way it has, logic says no. No one knows when the reign of an empire ends, just that it will some day end like all the rest.

Otherwise, don’t bet against America… the ultimate Doomer argument bucking against America is the book of Revelations. Pick your poison, the 7th seal with a half hour of silence (end of civilization as we know it) is ominous. The first 3 trumpets describing a third of the trees and all of the grass dead, a third of the sun & starlight not getting through, a third of the sea life dead with red tide algae blooms that would be triggered from ash fallout from forest fire on such a mass scale, the trumpets ominously describe nuclear war and future warfare. Unfortunately, we have the technology and means to make that happen. The trumpets also describe a second beast (world economy), a described nuclear war is not the end of civilization but the 3 woes that follow, it’s ugly!

The 7 bowls of wrath are all about man made climate change. Such reading if somewhat understood, is a horror story. It’s karma, the culmination of evil and stupidity. Humanity is smug with it’s systems and growing tech, believing we can out think our challenges but the book of Revelations is saying this won’t happen. Nor will civilization take the high road through it’s misadventures, according to this book.

I’m reminded of a movie, “The Flight of the Phoenix”, both versions of 1965 and 2004 and there’s a theme there concerning hope. If we can’t give each other a plan or some hope, then at least give us something to do. Give us something to work towards because if we don’t have that, all we have to feed on is despair. What are we going to do, stop investing, stop farming, stop developing, innovating, of course not because then doom becomes a self defeating prophesy.

In the same breath, to not recognize the dangers and challenges that lay ahead not just within the world but within ourselves… or ignore history or warnings from above, this too leads to the same self defeating prophesy. What I’m trying to say is we can’t being who we are… unless we really suck at being good people.

#103 yvr_lurker on 07.05.22 at 11:04 pm

As they came to Merrit, they decided to charge up for the second half of the trip.
Surprise, there was a five hour wait at the charging station.
Arrived about 5:am at the hotel.
Good timing.
Time for breakfast.
——–

This is precisely why it is too soon to go this route. The infrastructure is just not available at this stage, and when the fancy repairs (batteries etc…) need to be done, it will be uber-expensive. We drive to visit inlaws in Okotoks every Xmas, and I don’t need to be stuck on a mountain pass (Rogers Pass, Yoko, Coquihalla) wondering where the charging station is when it is snowing outside…. nope… don’t need that that stress.. I will stick with the Honda CRV….maybe in a decade or so, but no need to be a trailblazer…

#104 Don Guillermo on 07.05.22 at 11:24 pm

96 Ponzius Pilatus on 07.05.22 at 9:53 pm
88 Dr V on 07.05.22 at 9:16 pm
62 Don G

“A few months ago my neighbor had his bicycle stolen in broad daylight.”
———————
Wow, bicycle theft is making the News in Mechiko.
Because there are no decent cars to steal, I recon.
+++++++
It seems you’ve had too many ‘Bud Lite’ tonight

#105 Ronaldo on 07.05.22 at 11:31 pm

#53 Shawn on 07.05.22 at 6:27 pm
#41 JSS on 07.05.22 at 5:48 pm
I would be interested in buying a bank stock like CWB for $20 a common share. And I believe it will be coming. This will provide around 6.2% yield.

It’s currently around $25/share.

**************************************
Was it not you who said recently you would buy at $24 for a 5% yield? If it hits $20 you will say buy at $18?

I have book value at $33.70. So it’s for sale now at 75 cents on the dollar of book value. In a province swimming in cash.
—————————————————————–
Thanks for the tip a while back Shawn. Wife and I bought a bunch at just under 26.00. Now at .686 of book. Div. 4.88 PE 6.9, ROE 10.15. This is a keeper. This will be a $40 stock in the next year.

#106 Ustabe on 07.05.22 at 11:32 pm

#99 the Jaguar on 07.05.22 at 10:32 pm

#76 Ustabe on 07.05.22 at 8:15 pm – “Those who can’t or won’t see that the US is in trouble need to wake up.” and etc.

To clip out a sentence from my post, use it to make whatever point you were trying to make without leaving in the actual point I made is pretty low, even for you.

Hey, Jag, there are enough new posters onboard now, maybe time for a little history lesson? What say you to that? Good times, fun times when you and yours formed a little school yard clique, went after a poster who you disagreed with and then after getting all formidable with the “if Garth posts it it must be OK” thing that all too many of our sturdy conservative posters also fall into, you failed a big test..

You took it a bit further, no? Only sturdy conservative on here that has actually petitioned Garth publicly to ban another person. Cancel Culture personified.

To this day you haven’t taken ownership of that little faux pas.

Maybe stop editing something I posted and using it for your self aggrandizing ends, OK?

#107 Ustabe on 07.05.22 at 11:47 pm

#100 Sail Away on 07.05.22 at 10:33 pm

Well, in the US, Republican states are killing it on post-pandemic recovery, while Dem states decrease in both population and industry:

Why are you not there, then? Oh, and SOURCE!.

And would you please stop posting amp links. If you can’t figure out why ask Faron, he can tell you.

#108 TSX To the Moon on 07.06.22 at 12:32 am

Loads of jobs. Nowhere to live but that’s an externality to a seasoned CEO. There is a reason I make 350 times what you make.

https://www.khaleejtimes.com/uae/this-summer-canada-is-looking-for-500000-newcomers

#109 That Guy on 07.06.22 at 12:38 am

Wow, am I glad I just made a principal payment of 20 percent. Hoping to pay mortgage off early 2023, but at the very least my renewal in 2024 will be much less painful.

#110 Don Guillermo on 07.06.22 at 12:40 am

#67 Faron on 07.05.22 at 7:28 pm
#8 Søren Angst on 07.05.22 at 4:23 pm

Italia Travel Tips (& Schweiz)

DRY. UN-FROZEN. WET

Not to often …..
*********
(too often?)

Come on F, how can you expect anyone to take the rest of your comment seriously? I know, you’re so clever you plant those typos.

#111 Sears Roebuck on 07.06.22 at 12:46 am

How much were the C suite empty suites at Sears paid to sit on their ass and watch Amazon take their own Sears Catalog and bring it to the the internet?

CEO pay is obscene.

#112 Earlybird on 07.06.22 at 12:53 am

Welcome Back #35 Freedom First!

#113 tc-contra on 07.06.22 at 2:08 am

Down $40 an ounce today. That’s a funny way of ‘coming back’. You bullion-lickers never quit. – Garth

///////////////////////////////////////////////

Best performing asset during decade 2001-2011? You guessed it: gold.

Best performing asset during next decade, 2022-2032? I bet same: gold.

The daily noise is just that – noise! We are told to ignore ‘noise’, except only when it comes to precious metals?

Although gold is a must-have in portfolio during these tumultuous times (I’d say 10-20%), I totally agree with principles of diversification and balance.
Emerging Markets, for instance, are looking attractive again – like Brazil, Germany, Turkey,…and a few others.

Oh, and currencies such as Japanese Yen and Swiss Franc seem like good buys here as well…for diversification purposes of course.

#114 Faron on 07.06.22 at 2:35 am

Oil supplies haven’t changed, they have reorganized and demand is barely at early 2020 levels. Reorganizing who gets whose oil shouldn’t change the price much because demand hasn’t changed. Futs markets are just realizing this. Tack on GDPnow estimates showing recession and into the gutter with oil.

#76 Ustabe on 07.05.22 at 8:15 pm

Those who can’t or won’t see that the US is in trouble need to wake up.

Yep. Still, the USD will remain the reserve currency. The US bond market is the most liquid and largest in the world, thus the USD will prevail until China begins to issue debt on a larger scale and with a solid credit rating (China’s debt is still emerging market status with rates to match). This won’t happen any time soon.

#115 maxx on 07.06.22 at 7:22 am

@ #15

The better to milk all of that debt my dear…

50-year mortgages guarantee lifelong slavery. How to triple your purchase price in one easy step…

All who avoided crazy-a$$ debt and who sit on mountains of cash will triumph.

Bring on those rate rises!!

#116 Phylis on 07.06.22 at 7:33 am

For the bitcoin person who answers any questions. Why does this keep happening? https://www.reuters.com/technology/crypto-lender-voyager-files-bankruptcy-2022-07-06/

#117 the Jaguar on 07.06.22 at 8:12 am

@#106 Ustabe on 07.05.22 at 11:32 pm
You took it a bit further, no? Only sturdy conservative on here that has actually petitioned Garth publicly to ban another person. Cancel Culture personified.+++

I actually have mentioned it many times. Each time you have brought it up, which is plenty of times, though this is the first time you have attached your comments to me directly. I have already posted on this, but for all the ‘newbies’ here it is again. It was about two or three years ago, not long after Faron showed up on the blog and was into a round of posts that need no description from me. I asked Garth if similar to the television show he could be voted ‘off the island’. It was partially meant in humour but also out of exasperation. My recollection is that Garth replied if enough people thought likewise it might be considered, probably also meant with humour. Since that time numerous posters have said worse. Much, much worse.
But Ustabe, who regularly defends Faron ( even to the point of Faron asking him to butt out ) has never been able to get over this one post and harps on it continually, usually bringing up the term ‘ sturdy conservatives’, which is his catch phrase for everyone who disagrees with Faron’s left of centre views. That would be me, BillyBob, Sail Away, and a few others.

Did that cover it for you, Ustabe? No need to detail the numerous other suggestions from other posters, many far more direct and with less humour than my three year old remark. There is one relatively new poster who hasn’t hesitated to take on ‘your boy’, but I haven’t seen you object to her comments. That might be fun….

P.S> I apologize for nothing.

#118 crowdedelevatorfartz on 07.06.22 at 8:17 am

@#102 DD
scrolling ….scrolling aaaaand scrolling.

#119 Tom from Mississauga on 07.06.22 at 8:37 am

Unfortunately China can never actually reopen, no MRNA no natural immunity and Omicron is just too contagious.

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/world/article-shanghai-and-beijing-order-new-round-of-mass-covid-19-testing-after/

And Europe, particularly Germany, is falling apart.

https://youtu.be/84glSGwmMns

#120 the Jaguar on 07.06.22 at 8:42 am

Quite the acknowledgement: (NP)

‘The run-up in inflation over the past year surprised central banks and consistently outstripped economists’ forecasts. In Canada, the consensus forecast of a 7.3 per cent increase in the May CPI was well below the 7.7 per cent result. The Bank of Canada promises a preliminary study soon of the costly “inflation forecast errors” that Deputy Governor Paul Beaudry recently acknowledged. While we’re awaiting its results, I think it’s safe to say the reasons for central banks’ misjudgment of the recent surge in prices include: the ascension of academic over practical knowledge of the economy, the cult of celebrity central bankers and a growing trend to “groupthink” in central banks, especially in de-emphasizing the money supply’s role in the economy.

#121 MSM on Wars and Dogs (Dogs of War?) on 07.06.22 at 8:45 am

https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2022/jul/06/russia-ukraine-war-live-news-donetsk-governor-urges-evacuations-amid-russian-offensive

When you guys look at The Guardian or any other news outlet and they give you something like…

DAY 133 of the Invasion – update

Doesn’t that make you chuckle? In that sarcastic-how-pathetic-are-we way?
Day 150, Day 200 will go in bold – new high score. People die. Homes destroyed. Lip service. Put up a flag logo. Hashtag. We helped. Oh look…new Apple products were just announced. How did I miss that release? We should go to the Apple Store and see.

Humans.

Now, after dumping their dogs as they are no longer a convenience product to own, the trend is to rescue dogs from other countries. Oh…those poor dogs from elsewhere. Look at all the trouble I went through to rescue this imported dog from Whocaresfromistan, because I want to have a good social media story, and brag line at the dog park to potential babes because I’m special and really really a good person. Much better than that guy over there who just rescued a local dog and doesn’t talk about it at all.

https://nationalpost.com/opinion/colby-cosh-why-rescue-a-dog-from-abroad-when-so-many-here-need-adoption

#122 Pepe is Our Hero! on 07.06.22 at 9:10 am

Pepe’s gonna win!!

Patrick Brown is TOAST!!

https://www.thestar.com/politics/federal/2022/07/05/patrick-brown-disqualified-from-conservative-leadership-race.html

#123 Grommet on 07.06.22 at 9:34 am

over ask:

https://housesigma.com/bkv2/landing/rootpage/listing?id_listing=amgL7A4GBEmyZ1MW&utm_campaign=listing&utm_source=user-share&utm_medium=iOS&ign=

Did you just fall for the old list-under-market gimmick? – Garth

C’mon Garth, $1.1m for a 13 ft. lot wide semi with 1 bathroom and no garage street parking. People are still biting out there!

There are always greater fools. But the market is in descent. – Garth

#124 ARS on 07.06.22 at 9:45 am

https://ingoldwetrust.report/charts/?lang=en

Let’s put the gold and silver discussion to rest. Numbers don’t lie. Since 1971, annual performance of gold and silver is around 10-12% in CAD and USD. No need to say more.

Gold AND silver are money. The word ‘safe haven’ doesn’t do them justice. They don’t have a yield in the same way that physical cash in your mattress doesn’t have a yield.

PMs are not money. When a wafer buys groceries, let us know. – Garth

#125 Shawn on 07.06.22 at 9:50 am

Tesla and too early for EVs?

#93 Ponzius Pilatus on 07.05.22 at 9:40 pm said:

Some people I know, have a new Tesla.
To test it out they decided spontaneously to make a “fun” trip to Penticton

As they came to Merrit, they decided to charge up for the second half of the trip.
Surprise, there was a five hour wait at the charging station.

YVE Lurker added:

This is precisely why it is too soon to go this route. The infrastructure is just not available at this stage, and when the fancy repairs (batteries etc…) need to be done, it will be uber-expensive.

***********************************

Okay so some poor planning there. Maybe take this as a business opportunity for someone to install more paid chargers in Merritt? The Plugshare app. shows only three chargers there. Apparently no Tesla Supercharger.

Maybe take this as an indication that the adoption of EVs is on the rise.

They may not be suitable in a lot of cases for your only vehicle in the family. Maybe only for the second vehicles for now. Totally depends on your driving situation and access to a home charger.

No matter what, EVs are coming. A couple years ago there were very few to choose from now dozens.

There were people who poo=pooed autos back in the day said a horse-drawn carriage was the way to go.

I read a book recently that said some rural people in the rural western states as recently as circa 1920 initially thought that bringing the toilet inside the house was unsanitary compared to an outhouse outside the house. I am not making that up.

EVs are coming. The grid will adapt. Chargers will be installed.

The day may come sooner than you think where your taxi will be a driverless EV. Jeese we got to the moon in 1969. This is past due actually.

#126 crowdedelevatorfartz on 07.06.22 at 9:52 am

@#89 Turner Nation
“The bill would also repeal mandatory minimum sentences for all drug offences and some firearm offences; expand the use of conditional sentences, such as house arrest; ”
+++

What amazes is, the police, the prosecutors, the judges all know.
The majority of drug related crime is caused by a small amount of career criminal drug addicts.

https://www.kelownadailycourier.ca/news/article_151efb44-ccb3-11ec-b618-0376138908aa.html

Some of these people have been arrested or convicted 200- 300 times.
Lock them up and a large number of the crime goes away.

But incarceration costs money.

https://johnhoward.ca/blog/financial-facts-canadian-prisons/

$115,000 per year for men. $150,000 for women ( it costs $45,000 per year to go to Harvard)

Let the criminals incarcerate themselves?
$31,000 per year for random staff supervision.
Career criminals should be locked up not coddled.

Money the Liberals would rather spend on creating new laws for people who have never broken the Law such as licensed firearms owners.
Or to spend on handing out more orange T-shirts at Liberal rally’s.

Liberal Priorities

#127 Faron on 07.06.22 at 10:02 am

#106 Ustabe on 07.05.22 at 11:32 pm
#99 the Jaguar on 07.05.22 at 10:32 pm

My fave was that time she got all excited that she had this little nugget of info on me then triumphantly dropped a link to a race result with my name fully forgetting that I comment as myself.

Or all those times she said she was leaving and came back. Strange the inconsistency among the SturdCons.

#128 crowdedelevatorfartz on 07.06.22 at 10:21 am

Can you say “inflation”?

https://vancouver.citynews.ca/2022/07/05/province-offer-bcgeu/

The Province is offering 11% wage increase over 3 years plus a signing bonus for 33,000 union members.

The union wants more.

There are another 370,000 union members with expiring contracts this year in BC.

#129 Quintilian on 07.06.22 at 10:21 am

#122 Pepe is Our Hero! on 07.06.22 at 9:10 am
“Pepe’s gonna win!!
Patrick Brown is TOAST!!”

And this too! I am in disbelief. There must be some kind of a mistake…there must be some kind of misunderstanding.

“Peter MacKay campaign worker sues Erin O’Toole and his team for alleging he was behind hacking theft”
https://www.msn.com/en-ca/news/canada/peter-mackay-campaign-worker-sues-erin-o-toole-and-his-team-for-alleging-he-was-behind-hacking-theft/ar-AAZeKwY?cvid=0200891adbf94b71ac36f4b0689868c5

#130 Linda on 07.06.22 at 10:25 am

#120 ‘the J’ – thing is, insofar as I can make out that official number is manipulated to look as good as possible. In reality inflation is higher than the ‘official’ number – just ask anyone what food, gas, shelter costs now compared to a year ago. Prices have jumped far more than those official posted numbers would have you believe. Heck, even the dollar stores have raised their prices 25% on average. Stuff that used to be priced at $1 is now $1.25! When one considers how much stuff we import from the USA, the cost to transport it etc. there is absolutely no way that our inflation rate should read as lower than the USA. So I for one think our true rate of inflation is at least 8.6% (the latest USA number) & probably is more like 10%, especially when one factors in the exchange rate.

#131 Sail Away on 07.06.22 at 10:26 am

#107 Ustabe on 07.05.22 at 11:47 pm
#100 Sail Away on 07.05.22 at 10:33 pm

Well, in the US, Republican states are killing it on post-pandemic recovery, while Dem states decrease in both population and industry:

———

Why are you not there, then?

———

Only if you promise to keep my full-time residence in your cranium available. I’m always happy to share with Jag.

#132 Shawn on 07.06.22 at 10:44 am

Grocery item inflation from StatsCan

Out this morning a table of grocery item inflation. Unfortunately they did not give a nice table showing the year over year percent gains. Can someone take it and calculate the year over year percent and sort it and get back to us? What are the biggest increases year over year? Has anything gone down in price?

https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/t1/tbl1/en/tv.action?pid=1810024501

#133 Sail Away on 07.06.22 at 10:49 am

#125 Shawn on 07.06.22 at 9:50 am

Okay so some poor planning there. Maybe take this as a business opportunity for someone to install more paid chargers in Merritt?

———

Yep. Or as an amenity. My friend with many short term rentals has been installing chargers in his AirBNB’s using govvie subsidies, jacking the nightly rate and booking solid for months.

Plus, he gets a better class of customer much less likely to trash the place. Win-win-win.

#134 millmech on 07.06.22 at 10:49 am

#113
What do you think will happen to the price now with this discovery.
https://gsiexchange.com/12-8-trillion-in-gold-deposits-discovered-in-uganda/

#135 Dharma Bum on 07.06.22 at 10:59 am

Need a safe haven?

Buy a house.

Keep the house for a long time.

After 35 years or so, you won’t care if the price is up or down from the most recent “peak”.

Keep the front lawn nice – give it some “curb appeal”.

Paint it once in a while.

Maintain it reasonably.

Have dinner parties, backyard barbecues, cocktails, poker nights, pizza nights, a rec room, a boudoir, a little gym, maybe an office, workshop, craft room, and generally turn it into your own personal and family space.

In times of turmoil, there’s nothing like a safe haven.

Unless of course you have a gargantuan mortgage or two plus a maxed out HELOC.

That ain’t smart.

Anyway…consistent year over year inflation affects house prices too. Ride the wave over the decades and don’t worry.

#136 J on 07.06.22 at 11:18 am

#124 ARS on 07.06.22 at 9:45 am
“Since 1971, annual performance of gold and silver is around 10-12% in CAD and USD. No need to say more.”
————————————–

You are cherry-picking your data.

Gold over the last 100 years (click on the inflation adjusted box): http://www.macrotrends.net/1333/historical-gold-prices-100-year-chart

S&P over the last 100+ years (inflation adjusted, plus I don’t think this one shows dividend reinvestments): https://www.multpl.com/inflation-adjusted-s-p-500

Stocks win

#137 A million working at Timmys on 07.06.22 at 11:19 am

Loads of jobs. Nowhere to live but that’s an externality to a seasoned CEO. There is a reason I make 350 times what you make.

https://www.khaleejtimes.com/uae/this-summer-canada-is-looking-for-500000-newcomer

Canada is a joke of a country taking in all the rabble

#138 Bear on 07.06.22 at 11:26 am

#125 Shawn on 07.06.22 at 9:50 am

Okay so some poor planning there. Maybe take this as a business opportunity for someone to install more paid chargers in Merritt? The Plugshare app. shows only three chargers there. Apparently no Tesla Supercharger.

—————-

Merritt has superchargers. Never had to wait there. Been there many times. 5 hours I don’t think so, unless they were down. And if that is the case just go to Hope which has superchargers.

#139 Quintilian on 07.06.22 at 11:29 am

#135 Dharma Bum on 07.06.22 at 10:59 am

“Anyway…consistent year over year inflation affects house prices too. Ride the wave over the decades and don’t worry.”

Dharma Bum,
There is something to be said about common sense, but, at some point your model breaks down.

Do you honestly think that the distortion created by a monetary experiment can go on in perpetuity?

#140 maxx on 07.06.22 at 11:30 am

@ #33

Indeed – on 3/4 of an acre no less.

Canadians allow themselves to be screwed. Otherwise, we wouldn’t be seeing idiotic prices. Realtards have succeeded grandly at scaring the proverbial out of the average Canuck into believing that they are getting the last chair before the rotary wing stops.

You can’t fix stupid, but higher rates will go a long way towards seeing the light.

#141 Dr V on 07.06.22 at 11:31 am

118 Fartz

“scrolling ….scrolling aaaaand scrolling.”
——————————————-

Actually DDs comment wasnt that bad. I just read the first sentence in each paragraph to avoid the filler.

#142 Ponzius Pilatus on 07.06.22 at 11:45 am

#104 Don Guillermo on 07.05.22 at 11:24 pm
96 Ponzius Pilatus on 07.05.22 at 9:53 pm
88 Dr V on 07.05.22 at 9:16 pm
62 Don G

“A few months ago my neighbor had his bicycle stolen in broad daylight.”
———————
Wow, bicycle theft is making the News in Mechiko.
Because there are no decent cars to steal, I recon.
+++++++
It seems you’ve had too many ‘Bud Lite’ tonight
——————-
I don’t touch that stuff.
Same for Coors Light. Piss beer.
Why would people pay more and get less?
Just like gluten free.

#143 Dr V on 07.06.22 at 11:57 am

85 Ponz

“Good to hear that the ALR is not just a paper tiger.”
——————————————————–

Though still too young to be interested in politics at the time, I am sure the ALR was a hot topic when it was created 50 years ago.

Funny thing is, despite many successive governments of different stripe, it is still with us, so is recognized as a good idea in principle. I’ve never heard anyone suggest getting rid of it outright.

Going back about 30 years, all applications were considered by their board in Burnaby. Their motto was
“just say no”. They wanted fewer and larger parcels so
that they could be economically farmed. However, this restricted the market to larger private farmers and corporations. Not everyone wants 50+ acres.

Some years ago, regional boards were formed to consider applications. This allowed more local conditions
to be considered, including the creation of parcels of lesser area for the evolving market of smaller farm operations.

As positive as this may sound however, this can lead to some inconsistencies, and a possibly straying from the commissions mandate. Locally I have seen it go both
ways, with approval being obtained for developments I did not believe were beneficial, and others being rejected that I believed were. But I am not a farmer or an agrologist.

The local government in my area has issues with the residential/agricultural interface – mainly the smell and noises, so they have instituted a buffer zone if you live on neighbouring residential land. Sure, like the smell and noise stop after 15 metres.

Dragonfly’s approval for strata can come with its own set of hurdles, but it sounds like his intent is to sell and move on.

#144 Ponzius Pilatus on 07.06.22 at 12:05 pm

#125 Shawn.
Haha,
Shawn is trying hard to justify his Tesla purchase.
Did you get yours yet?
Our family gas car will be driven into the ground.
I think it should last another 5 years.
Then will see what’s out there, and what makes sense.
Being the first one has a price.
Remember Beta vs. VHS.
Not saying you’re wrong.
Just not for me right now.

#145 Bryer on 07.06.22 at 12:11 pm

I don’t work at Timmys but at a delivery and packaging company which we are really busy for years. I work 65 hours a week, get my over time, weekly $50 bonus and bring home net after taxes $985 a week. I am not making $16.85 an hour. I get my pay every week, put $500 a week now in the bank and I am fine with that. When I started 6 years ago, I was only putting $250 a week in the bank. I have now my $100,000 in mostly TFSA, $92,000 TFSA, $8,000 in savings account, earning me tax free $5,500 a year. I am tired of this crap about comparing always what others make, earn, look after yourself, take care of your self as this class warfare, socialist crap will destroy the still great country Canada.

#146 Ponzius Pilatus on 07.06.22 at 12:14 pm

#138 Bear on 07.06.22 at 11:26 am
#125 Shawn on 07.06.22 at 9:50 am

Okay so some poor planning there. Maybe take this as a business opportunity for someone to install more paid chargers in Merritt? The Plugshare app. shows only three chargers there. Apparently no Tesla Supercharger.

—————-

Merritt has superchargers. Never had to wait there. Been there many times. 5 hours I don’t think so, unless they were down. And if that is the case just go to Hope which has superchargers.
————————-
Driving back to Hope on an almost empty charge?
Great idea.
You must be the one who’s causing all the delays on the Coca.

#147 Dr V on 07.06.22 at 12:18 pm

XEG getting pounded again this AM, and ZEB slipping, all
dragging the TSX closer to bear territory. Got lots already, have added a bit since new year, but when to buy more?

Overall I was up yesterday after a rocky start. Crazy times.

#148 crowdedelevatorfartz on 07.06.22 at 12:29 pm

@#141 Dr V
Fair enough.

But when one sees the “tome” …avoidance is the key.
Brevity is a virtue.

#149 Sail Away on 07.06.22 at 12:30 pm

Patrick Brown DQ’d.

I have it on good authority that ol’ PB’s crime was a distinct smirk and non-complying thoughtcrime while watching a news report about super-villain Tamara Lich.

#150 Ronthecivil on 07.06.22 at 12:34 pm

Let’s see what happens to the price of oil when the inventory numbers come out tomorrow…..

#151 Brilliant Own Goal on 07.06.22 at 12:42 pm

#127 Faron on 07.06.22 at 10:02 am
#106 Ustabe on 07.05.22 at 11:32 pm
#99 the Jaguar on 07.05.22 at 10:32 pm

My fave was that time she got all excited that she had this little nugget of info on me then triumphantly dropped a link to a race result with my name fully forgetting that I comment as myself.

Or all those times she said she was leaving and came back. Strange the inconsistency among the SturdCons.

======================================

Amusing self-burn. No one, bar none, has posted more often than The Addict about leaving and then…always returned. Like, well, someone addicted, in this case to public humiliation.

Is this like the typos? So sloppy for a man of pseudo-science.

#152 Dragonfly58 on 07.06.22 at 1:08 pm

Hi Dr.V. Moving on is indeed the goal. And has been for over 25 years now. But if it takes a further 5 years for the investers to return then we are probably going to be stuck here untill the end.
If I started moving tomorroe it would be a huge task , 5 years from now I am just going to be too d####d old.
The plan was never to live here, but I couldent just stop my life until the property problem was solved.
So metal pre fab buildings were bought ( 3 ) two of which are still sitting on pallets. My garage built into the house is stuffed full of machine tools, 2 lathes, very decent , small commercial quality milling machine, all the smaller things, commercial drill presses , grinders etc. Every welder except a decent tig machine, a ton of hand tools and more specalized stuff.
Plus my MG cars , Lola race car, a few assorted trucks, two more wood frame buildings dismantled and inside the steel building that is erected. 3 tractors, and a mobile shop crane. Good stock of steel, and on and on.
As stuff has turned up at decent prices I have latched on to it , always with the ambition that we were eventually going to solve our property problem.
But time is running out. Wife simply isn’t going to wait a further 5 years or more to live in a house that isn’t a dump. The money we have set aside { around $450,000, mostly my wifes money } to make the jump to a decent place will have to be spent on making this place livable, and I am going to have to figure out a way to make a 50 % too small property work for me.
The move would be epic for me even now in my mid 60’s, over 70 I can’t even imagine surviving it. Heart attack / heat stroke become more than existential situations.
Time is simply running out.

#153 Shawn on 07.06.22 at 1:12 pm

Electric Vehicle Thoughts

1920’s autos just starting to come into Atlantic Canada. Some probably say impractical, there are no proper roads between communities and no gas available.
A young K.C. Irving sees opportunity and gets into the gasoline business in a big way. The rest is history.

Sometime around 1940’s Justin Trudeau’s grandfather is big in the gasoline business. Set’s the stage for his descendants to do pretty well (and two of those descendants seize the opportunity).

2020’s a lot of people moaning that the grid can’t handle electric vehicles. Elon Musk became the richest person in the world by going in big and early. Who else will make money? Who will be passed by?

Winners Win, that’s what they do. Losers? well…

#154 Shawn on 07.06.22 at 1:20 pm

#133 Sail Away on 07.06.22 at 10:49 am
#125 Shawn on 07.06.22 at 9:50 am

Okay so some poor planning there. Maybe take this as a business opportunity for someone to install more paid chargers in Merritt?

———

Yep. Or as an amenity. My friend with many short term rentals has been installing chargers in his AirBNB’s using govvie subsidies, jacking the nightly rate and booking solid for months.

Plus, he gets a better class of customer much less likely to trash the place. Win-win-win.

********************************
Yep. And my dad at age about 86 (five years ago or so) installed an EV charger at his Clansman Motel in Cape Breton. At first crickets. Now it gets used regularly.

He also bought a house in Florida at age 79 when they were in a deep bear market. Some people buy low and sell high. Others, well they get excited to buy at the top FOMO.

#155 ARS on 07.06.22 at 1:36 pm

#136 J on 07.06.22 at 11:18 am
Stocks represent companies. Gold and silver are not stocks. Crypto is not stocks. Bonds are not stocks.

Compare gold and silver to currencies. The time period is picked because the USD went off the gold exchange standard in august of 1971 via nixon.

we can pick a longer timeline if you want, one that crosses currencies. gold still wins.

Gold is not money. It’s a rock. – Garth

#156 Shawn on 07.06.22 at 1:51 pm

Money Madness

Headline just now said there is money outflows out of Crypto.

In my view that’s false. When Joe sells his Crypto Frank must buy it. No net money flows ever out of or into crypto.

Same for houses and stocks. They represent value but they are not money.

There is only two places where money exists:

1. Bank accounts (most, by far is here)

2. Paper cash in wallets, safes, underwear drawers and under mattresses.

You want to buy something right now. You can’t spend gold or stocks or crypto (with rare weird exceptions for crypt). You will be spending money in a bank account, in paper form or you might be using credit (which is not money though it’s pretty much as good as money). Got it?

#157 ARS on 07.06.22 at 1:55 pm

Garth, if gold (and silver) are not money, then why is it embedded in the language of the people?

Argent = money in French
Argent = silver in French

I think it’s the same in Chinese but others can speak on this better probably.

#158 Ponzius Pilatus on 07.06.22 at 1:55 pm

145 Bryer on 07.06.22 at 12:11 pm
I don’t work at Timmys but at a delivery and packaging company which we are really busy for years. I work 65 hours a week, get my over time, weekly $50 bonus and bring home net after taxes $985 a week. I am not making $16.85 an hour. I get my pay every week, put $500 a week now in the bank and I am fine with that. When I started 6 years ago, I was only putting $250 a week in the bank. I have now my $100,000 in mostly TFSA, $92,000 TFSA, $8,000 in savings account, earning me tax free $5,500 a year. I am tired of this crap about comparing always what others make, earn, look after yourself, take care of your self as this class warfare, socialist crap will destroy the still great country Canada.
—————————-
That’s alright if you’re single.
Not so much if you got mouths to feed.

#159 FortySomethingSense on 07.06.22 at 1:55 pm

Re post #124 ARS
Saying gold is up 10-12% per year since 1971 is comical. Nothing like picking all time historic lows as your start point.

How about you pick the start point as say, January 1980. Seems like a nice round place to start.
Oh wait… 42 years later your ‘investment’ would be down 30%.

#160 Dr V on 07.06.22 at 1:57 pm

148 Fartz

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HrwDzuUtQKY&ab_channel=Cheech%26Chong-Topic

152 Dragonfly58

Wow! That’s a lot of stuff. The Lola sounds cool though.

#161 Ronaldo on 07.06.22 at 2:05 pm

#128 crowdedelevatorfartz on 07.06.22 at 10:21 am
Can you say “inflation”?

https://vancouver.citynews.ca/2022/07/05/province-offer-bcgeu/

The Province is offering 11% wage increase over 3 years plus a signing bonus for 33,000 union members.

The union wants more.

There are another 370,000 union members with expiring contract this year in BC.
————————————————————
The BCGEU has one of the richest agreements in the country. And they want more????? Going to be an interesting year. You can bet that industry will not be able to offer this to their employees. It will be layoffs for them. They cannot compete with government employee salaries. Thank Davy Barrett for that.

#162 Shawn on 07.06.22 at 2:30 pm

Gold versus cash in a matress

#124 ARS on 07.06.22 at 9:45 am

“Since 1971, annual performance of gold and silver is around 10-12% in CAD and USD. No need to say more.”

***********************

You picked 1971, the most favorable point to pick.

And you can’t do math.

Try 1971’s $35 to today’s $1734 in 50 years. The compounding result is 8.1%. This is in U.S. dollars.

Just about every other time period you pick will be lower. And why compare to cash in a mattress? Who does that?

Use some of your gold to buy a calculator or take a math course.

Am I wrong? If so I guess I deserve a sharp retort.

#163 David Greene on 07.06.22 at 2:33 pm

BLOOMBERG:

Toronto Office Vacancies Rise to a Record on Recession Fears

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-07-06/toronto-office-vacancies-rise-to-a-record-on-recession-fears?srnd=premium-canada#xj4y7vzkg

Downtown Toronto’s office-vacancy rate hit a record in the second quarter as fears of a slowing economy and the persistent popularity of remote work curtailed appetites for new space.

Sure, things are definitely all getting back to normal.

#164 Dr V on 07.06.22 at 3:06 pm

125 Shawn

“EVs are coming. The grid will adapt. Chargers will be installed.”
——————————————–

Please examine the following energy data for Alberta and consider the scale of this adaption.

https://www.cer-rec.gc.ca/en/data-analysis/energy-markets/provincial-territorial-energy-profiles/provincial-territorial-energy-profiles-alberta.html

#165 Alex on 07.06.22 at 3:56 pm

3-BR, 2-BA 1,327 sq. ft. home on 3/4 acre. Built 2020, just north of Myrtle Beach in South Carolina.

Asking $279,900.

https://www.homes.com/property/114-saint-barnabas-rd-loris-sc-29569/id-1000085076072/

———–

You’ve got to be kidding!? For the price of a downpayment in the GTA, you can own a nice place in the U.S. OUTRIGHT! No mortgage!

The moistures are so screwed in Canada!
———-
Loris High School
Public High School

Grades: 9-12Students: 842

Attendance Zone

3
Out of 10

Public Middle School

Grades: 6-8Students: 707

Attendance Zone

4
Out of 10

I’d say that close to ghetto ratings, better check crime rates in the area. It’s US, not Canada, where you can put finger quite in any place and live safely. In US areas with school ratings 3-4 you’d wish to drive away ASAP, not even living here (car theft, home break ins, gas stations shootings and all that “fun” stuff)

#166 Dragonfly58 on 07.06.22 at 4:39 pm

Dr V, the Lola is cool. Beyond cool in fact. My lifetime ambition was always to have something of this sort , plus the set up to look after it. Also a equally cool pre 1915 American ” big car “. If you know anything about Brass Era automobiles you will have an idea of what I am talking about. Bought many years ago for a good price , but until my shop set up is functional they are both just a frustration as my hands are tied . The Lola was my retirement gift, a light project but still it needs a shop to return to use. The window for actually using the Lola is rapidly closing.

#167 Canadian Patriot on 07.06.22 at 4:58 pm

@#151 Brilliant Own Goal on 07.06.22 at 12:42 pm
#127 Faron on 07.06.22 at 10:02 am
#106 Ustabe on 07.05.22 at 11:32 pm
#99 the Jaguar on 07.05.22 at 10:32 pm

My fave was that time she got all excited that she had this little nugget of info on me then triumphantly dropped a link to a race result with my name fully forgetting that I comment as myself.

Or all those times she said she was leaving and came back. Strange the inconsistency among the SturdCons.

======================================

Amusing self-burn. No one, bar none, has posted more often than The Addict about leaving and then…always returned. Like, well, someone addicted, in this case to public humiliation.

Is this like the typos? So sloppy for a man of pseudo-science.

lovin’ this spat all you children have going.
great entertainment, both hilarious and sad.
from what i gather you’re all out west, maybe get together and hug it out or something.

#168 Jesse on 07.06.22 at 5:12 pm

The CB’s core rate, he says, could travel from the current 1.5-1.75% range to 4.75% by this time next year. Yikes. A 3% hit coming.

Just to be clear, Canada will follow. Over 90% of the time our central bank has aped the Fed, and given our weak dollar we cannot allow American rates to trump ours.
****************************

The devastation this will bring to the Canadian economy will be felt for decades.

The Lockdowns plus CERB will be remembered as criminal acts against the Canadian people.

Buy the S&P 500, forget about the TSX.

#169 Tammy on 07.06.22 at 7:59 pm

The last time I checked if you have 2 kids in Canada and make a modest to low income, you are getting child welfare of $1,600 a month or $19,200 a year tax free, GST credit, child tax benefits of kids under 7. This is equivalent to $30,000 gross working income or a full time minimum wage worker. I think the government really pays for you to have kids and this is just Federal, Trudeau giving you this money, there are provincially child welfare benefits too they get.

#170 Don on 07.06.22 at 10:52 pm

Also, a note for the doomers and USA-haters. The American dollar is proving once again it rules as the globe’s currency. This is a safe haven. Given a choice, everyone on the planet would rather be paid in Benjamins. Never in the lifetime of anyone now old enough to install their own socks will this cease to be the case. The US$ is the reserve currency. Ensure you own some.

Reserve currency, for now, to be just one of them later.

. My fear is that they will CONFISCATE my poor USD account too so that they can fund the rebuilding efforts of Ukraine, as they are doing now with Russia. The world is trying to divest from the USD.

#171 Evan on 07.07.22 at 8:55 am

Don, the root of the problem is marxists, communists and everyone who has similar policies. Get rid of them.

#172 Holly on 07.07.22 at 9:21 am

Dharma Bum, if just property taxes today in Pickering for my aunt’s, uncle’s house in Pickering is $6,000 a year and it is up 9% annually since 2011 in 35 years they will be paying $122,483.80 a year in yearly property taxes. How is a house a safe haven. Remember, this is not including repairs and maintenance, utilities, insurance and other household expenses. I think people and their politicians that love this real estate mania are really screwed up in the head and the only way to bring this into to reality is cut the fact in all governments by at least 30% and raise interest rates to 8% to 10% to really put this crap to rest.

#173 Sean on 07.07.22 at 9:29 am

> Remember when mortgages were 2% and the steerage section told you it was “impossible” for them to ever inflate? The paleos were bemused.

Six-seven months to first rate cuts!

#174 Don on 07.07.22 at 11:53 am

#171 Evan Oh, OK. I wonder why India and Latin America getting rid of the Dollar base, then? I think it is good to have more than one reserve currency, where the current monopoly can seize the accounts at will. After all soon the world will be Multipolar.