The way out

It’s rare Wall Street, Bay Street, crypto, tech and Main Street lay an egg at the same time, but here we be. As you know the first half of 2022 was full of surprises. War, inflation, rates, oil – it all sucked. Now the consequences.

Our prediction: nothing has hit bottom yet. But first to bounce will be financial assets. It’s always the case. Even in the midst of a CB tightening orgy and recession, they rise in anticipation of better days to come. You should stay invested. You should not turn paper losses into real ones. You will regret that.

However, the biggest impact on people is real estate. Housing’s shocking descent in just 100 days could take years to reverse – and we’re not even within sight of the worst days for your prop. In Canada many will suffer. Deals are falling apart in city after city. Buyers cannot close because the buyers of their old property can’t close because their buyers are in trouble. Dominoes. Meanwhile lenders are pulling in horns, appraisals are fading and mortgage loan amounts  coming up short. Others find that after ‘winning’ a bidding war in April or May they flunk a stress test rate of  7.25%.

Sales are plopping. Once again, the huge GTA market is representative. Here are the declines in transactions: Durham -34%; Halton -43%; Peel -52%; Toronto -43%; and York -52%.

Prices usually follow sales by about six months. But not this time. Down she goes. Durham -26%; Halton -21%; Peel -20%; and York -16%. So far, Toronto is flat – because WFH is ending for thousands of people. The convenience premium is back.

How are people reacting to the cheaper real estate the entire country’s been clamouring for?

Yep, we’re in a serious funk. When houses stop going up, folks know we’re all gonna die.

Here’s the rub. A drop in house prices and collapse in sales isn’t making anything more affordable. Nor will building a million more places over ten years. As interest rates swell, so do monthly payments. The result: within a month or less we’ll see the lowest sales volumes in at least three decades. And, expect all of the pandemic price excess to be blown off by the time we hit the mat. Yes, we’re talking 40% in Bunnypatch. That’s not a correction. It’s a crash.

How will politicians react?

The day before Canada Day a major bank (the green one) “significantly downgraded” its projection for the nation’s average home price collapse. From the March high to the early 2023 low, it says get ready for a 33% sales decline. Nasty. But remember how conservative the bankers are (unlike the histrionics in the steerage section) and how their bottom line is tied to mortgage lending.

RBC’s latest report is brutal. “The worst level of affordability,” it says, in thirty years. “Forceful interest rate hiking campaign will further inflate ownership costs in the near term, putting national affordability on a path to worst-ever levels… Buyers in the priciest markets will be challenged most.”

And this:

“Affordability tensions are already at unsustainable levels in Ontario and British Columbia, and will likely become intolerable in other parts of the country. This will cool down demand significantly, rebalance market conditions and apply downward pressure on prices—a process that began this spring.”

So?

While it may not rescue prices, the betting here is that do-goody politicians will attack affordability and the freezing-up of the housing market by following the UK lead.

In Britain the Boris Johnson government is about to unveil generational, half-century-long mortgages. Amortizations of 50 years, BoJo says, will stimulate the moribund market, help fight recession, temper the CB’s monetary policy romp and allow people to pass on debt to their children.

There’s more. The Brits are also mulling a US-style, fixed-rate 30-year mortgage. No more interest rate roulette as payments would not vacillate over the course of three decades. And more: mortgages equal to 100% of a property’s value, since incomes have seriously fallen behind inflation and the savings rate is crashing.

The bottom line: way more debt. Infinitely more interest paid over the life of a home loan. The reality that many people will never in their adult lives be mortgage-free.

But, houses will keep changing hands. The young will embrace a Faustian future. Political heat will cool. And you’ll have a helluva new reason to own bank stock.

About the picture: “Love the daily blog and long time reader,” writes Darren. “This is Nellie. We got her 11 years ago and was a wonderful, immediate part of the family. Every activity or event from going to the soccer field, meeting kids at the bus stop, or visiting relatives was always made so much richer with Nellie there. Sadly we had to put her down a few weeks ago and I know you, as all pet owners know, it just rips at your heart. They ask for so little and provide so much. Thanks for sharing and your guidance – we will be alright.”

139 comments ↓

#1 Elon Fanboy on 07.03.22 at 12:41 pm

#123 Bitcoin Sam yesterday “ The Bitcoin network runs 365 days per year, 24 hours per day, has never been hacked nor has there ever been error on the blockchain. Can you say that about your bank?”

My bank can reset my account password if I forget it.

Who do i call if that happens with a Bitcoin account?

Ohh that’s right….

NO ONE !!!

Game over.

Never gonna become mainstream.

#2 yvr_lurker on 07.03.22 at 12:56 pm

Here’s the rub. A drop in house prices and collapse in sales isn’t making anything more affordable. Nor will building a million more places over ten years.
——————————–
Indeed house price decrease is offset by high interest rates. However, am not sure why you say that building a million more places would not improve affordability. Speculators buying this inventory? Or the price point at which these new units are built are way too high?

So essentially what you seem to be saying is that the next generation (who are in university now) will not have an opportunity (without large inheritances etc..) even with these large changes, to experience the same housing affordablity landscape that those who are now in their 50s once had. Sad situation in my view.

#3 cuke and tomato picker on 07.03.22 at 1:03 pm

I love the line Wall Street, Bay Street, crypto, tech, Main
Street lay an egg. What about cannabis? NOT VERY GOOD.

#4 TurnerNation on 07.03.22 at 1:14 pm

Aging Boomers might take note.
By mid 2020 I’d stated many times that Every System Designed to Protect Us Has Been Turned Against Us.

Two years later and untold taxes and government debt and the health care system is in shambles. They this during what were told is pandemic they FIRED tens of thousands of health care staff that would not submit to mandates.
Our rulers literally going for the soft kill on us.

.Canada’s hospital emergency rooms understaffed, facing tsunami of patients
TORONTO, July 3 (Reuters) — Health authorities across Canada have cut the hours of hospital emergency departments and urgent care clinics in recent weeks, a move that in some cases may extend through the summer, due to a surge in patients and staff shortages.

—- A reminder that this is deigned to be permanent state of affairs in the Former First World Countries.

.France mulls return to masks as COVID-19 hospitalizations rebound. However, the government says that nearly 80% of French citizens are fully vaccinated.
https://globalnews.ca/news/8962718/covid-france-mask-hospitalization/

#5 The joy of steerage on 07.03.22 at 1:15 pm

Pepe is kinda nutz….

https://www.instagram.com/tv/CfjPSEsBpgG/?igshid=YmMyMTA2M2Y=

#6 Sail Away on 07.03.22 at 1:20 pm

Let ‘er drop! The further the better, with our 40-year timeline and the kids’ 60- or 70-year horizons. Just topped up all nephew/niece RESPs with Berkshire limit orders. Independence Day is always auspicious and my squirrel advisor-deity gave thumbs up.

Main portfolio looks decent, Heloc portfolio down -2.4%, RESP portfolio fine, Boom-Bust portfolio way positive since 2019, BD retirement portfolio holding steady, both companies rolling in good profits, and dividends continue to flow like the mighty force they are.

Lots of dry powder getting stockpiled in the SA armory. And a perfectly-timed rain for the vegetation today. Maybe a muddy mtn bike ride later? So good, this charmed life.

#7 Ed on 07.03.22 at 1:20 pm

Well JT promised to plant 2 billion trees a few years ago…so far evil empire Suncor has planted 10x more trees in that time…(at no cost to taxpayers)

Lets see if our government can build any houses…my bet is Suncor will provide more new living spaces in the next 10 years than Junior.

After Trans Mountain I don’t think Justin should promise any other government construction projects.

#8 Flop… on 07.03.22 at 1:21 pm

UBC, I don’t really trust them.

A University that didn’t want to kick it’s fair share into a sky train transit route, then decided to start buying land and become a real estate speculator.

Who else wants to dabble in stuff they should be staying out of?

Translink?

Let’s see what these guys are up to.

“TransLink to launch Real Estate Development Program.”

Sounds ominous, tell me more.

“Through this new Real Estate Development Program, which has been endorsed by the Mayors’ Council and TransLink Board, we intend to build residential, commercial, or mixed-use developments near transit through partnerships with both the public and private sectors.

It is all part of our efforts to identify new ways to fund essential regional transit services.”

Yeah, to raise funds they could also stop paying people over 500k a year to sit on boards, just a thought.

Here’s another thought, if they as a transit company are allowed to expropriate land to build transit infrastructure underneath and top the Piss-Take Pie with overpriced condos, then why do they insist on nickel and diming the poor folks who daily have to deal with this company’s sheer ineptitude.

As I mentioned the other day the city fancies it self a a green utopia.

If it were an apple, it would be a Granny-Smith Apple.

Shiny and Green on the outside.

Unfortunately, rotten to the core on the inside…

M48BC

https://buzzer.translink.ca/2022/06/translink-to-launch-real-estate-development-program/

#9 crowdedelevatorfartz on 07.03.22 at 1:21 pm

A good time to wait and hold in the markets.
Avoid Real Estate.
Build up cash reserves.
Circle above the carnage.
Patience.

#10 When Will They Raise Rates? on 07.03.22 at 1:37 pm

BREAKING…

B.A. 2.7.5 is here folks!

100% immune escape
900% growth advantage over B.A. 5
Twice as contagious as the Measles!
Does not show up on rapid tests
Does not show up on PCR without software upgrade
Already in Canada

^ They new variants are coming fast and furious now, faster than new vaccines can be created and rolled out. It’s going to be a sh*t show this fall, and I would adjust your investment thesis accordingly!

#11 the Jaguar on 07.03.22 at 1:38 pm

“The young will embrace a Faustian future. “-GT.

Yes, but which part will they play in that scenario? Faust, the Devil, Mephistopheles, or a combination of all three?

Hard to feel sorry for anyone who despite having access to the ‘information highway’ as well as the benefit of history and wisdom of elders, still found themselves unable to push away from the table at the banquet of consequences. It’s not going to be pretty.

Usually one can observe these events through the lense of a slow motion car crash, but these days it’s all about acceleration. The next 90-120 days that will foreshadow the road ahead.

While you wait maybe order up Ken Dryden’s new book to take up to the cottage for your lazy summer read and reminisce a little about the joy and simplicity of 1972. Economic stagflation was just around the corner, but the Summit Series was on. It’s the 50th anniversary this year. ( oh those Rooskies….)

The Series: What I Remember, What It Felt Like, What It Feels Like Now Hardcover – Aug. 23 2022 – by Ken Dryden (Author).

p.s. Nellie was a cute little dustmop.

#12 Shawn on 07.03.22 at 1:39 pm

BitCoin Sam at 127 “yesterday” said:

The value of bitcoin relies on supply and demand – pretty much how bonds/stocks/gold all work, except it is far more efficient.

********************************
Think about how investors can estimate the future value of Walmart shares versus Bitcoins.

For Walmart there is a current dividend and earnings and assets to look at but one has to estimate the future growth. Interest rates also affect the value. So, estimates of fair value for a Walmart share might vary within a wide range but no more than a factor of say 2 or 3 for such a mature company.

What of BitCoin? How can anyone estimate the value of its potential to really be a competing currency or at least widely used dollar transfer mechanism? How widespread will the use be? What is the chance it will remain the dominant crypto as opposed to maybe a true central bank crypto?

And why should its value keep rising? Are we back to just the scarcity argument? Wait, there are dozens of other cryptos.

What would be the spread on potential valuation estimates? I guess anywhere from zero to a million (you know dollars of the fiat kind) at the moment?

Yeah, others can play in this thing. Count me out.

#13 Felix on 07.03.22 at 1:44 pm

DELETED

#14 Observer on 07.03.22 at 1:45 pm

While it may not rescue prices, the betting here is that do-goody politicians will attack affordability and the freezing-up of the housing market by following the UK lead.

^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^

Hopefully not!

#15 None on 07.03.22 at 1:49 pm

Stuff like this makes me angry.

To sell out the next generation to protect ‘gravy gains’ for about 70% of the home owners like that is ridiculous.

Also, what does it do? A 50 year amortization at 4% has the same as a 25-year amortization at 6%. What that means is this massive shift in turning an entire generation into serfs is just to protect 20% of recent housing gains. It’s stupid.

#16 Don Guillermo on 07.03.22 at 1:53 pm

#110 the Jaguar on 07.01.22 at 6:22 pm

Meanwhile, back in the kitchen, the best friijoles I think I have ever made are in the crock pot. Canada Day, but Mexican food on the menu today. (Saludos DonG! Big smooch to Charlie the wiener doggie…)
#############

Thanks Jag. I love Mexican frijolies.

I’ve been back in YYC for a while. It was just a quick trip to Mexico for some medical tests. The wait times here weren’t acceptable. Didn’t get to see Charlie on this trip.

We walked around the Prince’s Island/Eau Claire area on Canada day. It was busy and upbeat. Great live music, abundance of food trucks and people wandering everywhere. The diversity of Calgary never fails to impress. Families dressed in patriotic colours, red cowboy hats, Flames apparel etc speaking languages from all over the globe. It was a great afternoon.

#17 Søren Angst on 07.03.22 at 1:58 pm

#3 cuke and tomato picker

What about cannabis?

————-

Cannabis production
Mar—>Apr -1.6%
Apr 2021—>Apr 2022 +11.1%

Cannabis stores
Mar—>Apr +0.6%
Apr 2021—>Apr 2022 +1.6%

GDP at basic prices, by industry, monthly, industry detail, growth rates
https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/t1/tbl1/en/tv.action?pid=3610043405

#18 Quintilian on 07.03.22 at 2:00 pm

#8 crowdedelevatorfartz on 07.03.22 at 1:21 pm
“A good time to wait and hold in the markets.”

Crowdie, your strategy is missing 50% of the action needed for it to work.

If you are not buying on the dips, and not cost averaging down, (thereby diluting your existing losses), it will take you many years to get back to positive returns.

As for RE, yes it will crash. The prices were predicated on the economy running hot simultaneously with negative interest rates- an artificially supported construct by politicians, and obviously unsustainable.

#19 Prince Polo on 07.03.22 at 2:01 pm

I heard an interesting thought over the weekend that the latest crypto-crash is a result of massive over-leveraging coming home to roost.

Therefore, with debt snorfling at all-time highs, isn’t it at all possible that the over-leveraged mortgage holders will also get blown to smithereens?

PS. all bets are off when politicians swoop in to buy votes with other people’s money or multi-generational amortizations.

#20 Tales from the Crypt-Oh on 07.03.22 at 2:04 pm

Let’s be honest, we all wish we bought BitCoin when it cost nothing.

The question no one addresses is simply this…who, except for someone who completely forgot about it, would hold onto BitCoin until now? No one.

I talked to a bunch of friends about it, and we all agreed that we’d be out of it at around $300 – which of course would be massive gain, and massive loss.

#21 Well Travelled on 07.03.22 at 2:09 pm

Increasing mortgages from 25 to 30 or even 40 years solves the affordability problem. Not the best solution in many ways but very attractive to governments who will be looking for a quick fix.

#22 Sail Away on 07.03.22 at 2:10 pm

#7 Ed on 07.03.22 at 1:20 pm

Well JT promised to plant 2 billion trees a few years ago…so far evil empire Suncor

——–

The promise to plant 2B trees in ten years was essentially bafflegab, since Canada already plants 140M trees per year, so 1.4B in ten years. So if we don’t quite make 2B, at least we got close! Backslaps all around.

Fun facts: one billion trees, if planted one tree per 1 square meter of area would encompass a circle 37 km in diameter. Canada currently has around 320 billion trees.

#23 millmech on 07.03.22 at 2:12 pm

The cost of carrying $1,250,[email protected]% for 50 years is $3,500,000 in interest charges alone, $8400 monthly for 600 mths. I guess it beats paying rent, so you will have bragging rights in the old folks home that at 85-90 you are finally financially free.

#24 Søren Angst on 07.03.22 at 2:17 pm

Cheer up Garth.

It will get better.

History offers hope.

When the S&P 500 plunged 21% in the first half of 1970, it promptly reversed those losses to gain 26.5% in the second half and eke out a gain for the year.

History also says, 1 more Qtr of misery.

During the last three worst starts for the year, with declines of 5% or more, the S&P 500 fell in Q3 by an additional 6.8%, 2.2%, and 2.1% respectively.

The Summer of discontent. Then, comes:

October.

——————-

Staying vested & buying more this week.

Optimum est pati quod emendare non possis.
– Seneca

Qui durat, illam vincit.
– My Dad

[Google translate makes a bullocks of both Latin phrases, why English is NOT a Romance language]

#25 Faron on 07.03.22 at 2:18 pm

Bird nerd alerd: today I solved what was a mystery to me.

I tend to run and hike in the late evening hours. For years now on summer evenings around sunset I’ve heard a bird with a nasal “cheep” type call. I’ve seen them swooping often around bluffy slopes with sparse doug fir, grass and arbutus common on the SWern part of Vancouver Island. The cool part is this: when the bird dives for insects or display, it’s wings make a zooming/booming sound.

After years of asking around about and not getting answers and wondering if it was an auditory hallucination from running long miles, I found the answer.

Nighthawks. I heard them last night and over coffee this morning stumbled across their description in the bird booked handed down to me from my mom.

And, to make this about investing: BUY STONKS!

#26 crowdedelevatorfartz on 07.03.22 at 2:28 pm

@#18 Quinty’s Questionable Quotes
“If you are not buying on the dips, and not cost averaging down, (thereby diluting your existing losses), it will take you many years to get back to positive returns.”
+++

“Many Years”?
I’m almost back to my Jan2022 numbers now.

But I think this Summer and Fall may be volatile and drop again.
Either way I’m fine.
A growing pile of cash is a good place to be.

#27 Søren Angst on 07.03.22 at 2:32 pm

You were correct Garth about RE price drops in Durham, Halton, Peel and York.

https://twitter.com/daniel_foch/status/1543608415209099264

Toronto flat, until you drill down…

https://twitter.com/daniel_foch/status/1543610896735518724

—————

RE is local.

Then it’s local, local.

Or plain LOCO?

#28 Doug t on 07.03.22 at 2:32 pm

#3 cuke and tomatoe

??? What’s that even mean

#29 Well There's That on 07.03.22 at 2:35 pm

Who says blockchain doesn’t have any practical application?

https://financialpost.com/fp-finance/cryptocurrency/csis-officials-warned-about-russias-potential-use-of-blockchain-to-skirt-sanctions-documents-show

#30 Paddy on 07.03.22 at 2:37 pm

“This will cool down demand significantly, rebalance market conditions and apply downward pressure on prices”…..I don’t see anything wrong with that. Own the banks indeed….they own us, might as well get something out of it.

Darren,
Thank you for sharing your story with us. I’m sure Nellie will be missed dearly. It’s so true about how much they give us, but ask for so little in return….some kibble, walks, doggy bed, a couple toys and someone to occasionally pick up their doodoo. Unconditional love.

#31 Felix on 07.03.22 at 2:38 pm

DELETED

#32 The real Kip (Ret) on 07.03.22 at 2:39 pm

Meh! This too shall pass.

#33 Bankrupting Landlords is good for the Economy on 07.03.22 at 2:41 pm

There’s another word for 50 year mortgages: Serfdom.

#34 Doing my Part on 07.03.22 at 2:45 pm

What happened to all the people saying interest rates couldn’t/wouldn’t rise, the Gov wouldn’t let them.
I guess they got a little surprise.
Next from that lot, “they” will start dropping them again by Christmas.
Probably the same people who said WFH was permanent and are holding on to their bitcoin because it will be $1M by the end of the year.
Education is expensive if you don’t listen.

#35 Flop… on 07.03.22 at 2:55 pm

The Bleachers lead singer Jack Antonoff once penned the following lyric for their appropriately named song ‘Don’t Take The Money.’

“Somebody broke me once, Love was a currency.”

I suspect if he was going to do a follow-up lyric on cryptocurrency, it would go something like this.

Somebody on the internet made me rich once, then they broke me, so I jumped on the hot new thing, then they made me rich again, here’s hoping they don’t make me broke again.

Don’t Take The Money….

M48BC

#36 Felix on 07.03.22 at 3:09 pm

Deleted?

I’m just trying to help save the lives of dogs, and our host won’t allow me to be heard.

#37 Earlybird on 07.03.22 at 3:10 pm

Lol…50 year mortgages….same as renting but the bank is the landlord and you are on the hook for maintanence.
A new level of debt slavery…..who makes up this sh*t???
Omg….

#38 Overheardyou on 07.03.22 at 3:11 pm

If the future of society is servitude to a life of debt then I sure feel bad for the next generation who’s parents couldn’t live within their means

#39 Faron on 07.03.22 at 3:12 pm

#16 Don Guillermo on 07.03.22 at 1:53 pm
#110 the Jaguar on 07.01.22 at 6:22 pm

My first Canada Day was in Calgary. Loved it for a variety of reasons. The only downside was going to a bar, asking for an IPA and getting a Keith’s. God no, WTF?

It’s frijoles not frijolies BTW. Take you jollies elsewhere please.

#40 Ponzius Pilatus on 07.03.22 at 3:13 pm

#11 the Jaguar on 07.03.22 at 1:38 pm
“The young will embrace a Faustian future. “-GT.

Yes, but which part will they play in that scenario? Faust, the Devil, Mephistopheles, or a combination of all three?
——————
Three?
too many men on the ice.

#41 Faron on 07.03.22 at 3:19 pm

#22 Sail Away on 07.03.22 at 2:10 pm
#7 Ed on 07.03.22 at 1:20 pm

“if planted one tree per 1 square meter”

Would die of disease in a decade or two.

Also, Suncor most likely plants trees in order to up their greenwashing and pay less carbon tax that then costs Canadian taxpayers. If you think a for profit, publically traded corp does stuff out of the goodness of it’s non-existent heart, think again.

#42 Hindsight on 07.03.22 at 3:21 pm

I did say to keep your eyes wide open Garth, remember, it is going to be different this time !!

#43 Jane24 on 07.03.22 at 3:24 pm

Now I would like to hear Royal Lepage’s current thoughts as they claimed in January that Canadian house prices would increase by 12%. They have massive egg on face now. Where are they?

#44 Madcat on 07.03.22 at 3:28 pm

‘Amortizations of 50 years’

Wow.. Terrible idea but I wouldn’t put anything past the imbeciles running our countries finances.

#45 Stone on 07.03.22 at 3:39 pm

What’s currently happening is super simple. Russia and other energy rich nations that don’t like the western world order took away the Fed put. If they reduce interest rates to zero, energy prices go to the moon. The west abused its power and its toy is gone now.

#46 Neo liberal serfdom - might work considering the low IQ of westerners on 07.03.22 at 3:41 pm

In Britain the Boris Johnson government is about to unveil generational, half-century-long mortgages. Amortizations of 50 years, BoJo says, will stimulate the moribund market, help fight recession, temper the CB’s monetary policy romp and allow people to pass on debt to their children.

#47 PBrasseur on 07.03.22 at 3:49 pm

From what I see around me what is driving prices up is not oil, not the supply chain nor the war, no what is pushing prices up is the labour market, so hard to find employees companies have to better conditions to attract workers. This is what a reversal of the age pyramid does for you. Until unemployment goes up substantially inflation is not going anywhere.

That leaves plenty of time for markets to tumble, bubbles to pop and real estate to crash. Not only rates will keep rising but some lenders pull out and credit becomes much more difficult to get.

And this time no rescue from CB buying bonds and mortgages… This is going to become real interesting very soon. Not to mention financial crisis both in Europe and China, both heading for a wall!

Sure enough equities will bounce first, but this crisis still has a lot of legs before that.

#48 jess on 07.03.22 at 3:50 pm

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/anbang-insurance-bc-assets-fraud-1.4656819

According to Xinhua News Agency, Wu concealed his ownership of shares in companies controlled by Anbang, filed false statements with financial authorities and lured investors by offering rates of return above that offered elsewhere.

Much of the business relied on selling insurance products to raise investment capital.

Xinhua said Wu used more than 100 companies under his control to manage funds, and authorities later recovered bank savings, real estate and other assets. Wu used his position to misappropriate 10 billion yuan ($1.5 billion) in Anbang’s deposits, according to Xinhua’s lengthy report

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/anbang-insurance-bc-assets-fraud-1.4656819

#49 Jay on 07.03.22 at 3:52 pm

Okay can someone please tell me what mat means?

#50 ogdoad on 07.03.22 at 3:56 pm

I’m curious to witness the upcoming generations of house horniness.

Are most buyers going to be foreign who may not mind paying higher interest rates and who come with finances? And different experiences?

Or perhaps people who have been reading this blog since it started, waited, rented, saved, are now late 30’s and hate you? Until now, that is.

Maybe, people who already have a house, will take a hit when selling (gonna hurt, hugs available – gonna cost’ya tho) then choose to buy a place in bunnypatch (or kelowna) at a discount? And regret it? true story.

Maybe kids today will wake up, grow a pair, think for themselves and not want a house (wisest). Uuuuug, but think of the carnage then…omg, you think Canadians whine a lot today? Gods help us when a generation that can’t sell there house for enough to survive and were lied to their entire lives? Ouch…damn. Like ripping off a band-aid…feel like I’m gonna puke. (full. Dis. I will provide weekly hugs and maybe a snuggle for those in need….and still hot).

I know exactly what i’m gonna do while I wait. Involves little blues, good music and perhaps a vespa…

Og

#51 Ed on 07.03.22 at 3:57 pm

#22 Sail Away on 07.03.22 at 2:10 pm

#7 Ed on 07.03.22 at 1:20 pm

Well JT promised to plant 2 billion trees a few years ago…so far evil empire Suncor

——–

The promise to plant 2B trees in ten years was essentially bafflegab, since Canada already plants 140M trees per year, so 1.4B in ten years. So if we don’t quite make 2B, at least we got close! Backslaps all around.

////////////////////////////

Of the 2 billion trees promised only 8.5 million have been planted so far…

https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/tree-planting-update-cp-1.6284165

#52 Stoph on 07.03.22 at 3:58 pm

#25 Faron on 07.03.22 at 2:18 pm
Bird nerd alerd: today I solved what was a mystery to me.

————————————————-
If you’re interested in birding, check out the Merlin Bird ID app. They’re got a great AI system that IDs birds based on their song and call. (ie. It’s the Shazam for birds.) It’s fun to take it camping and have it ID all the birds that wake you up 4 am.

Anyways, to make this post relevant to the blog, does anyone know if there’s an app that can ID the breed of a dog based on their bark?

#53 Sail Away on 07.03.22 at 3:58 pm

#39 Faron on 07.03.22 at 3:12 pm

It’s frijoles not frijolies BTW. Take you jollies elsewhere please.

——–

‘your’

sigh

#54 When the Whip Comes Down on 07.03.22 at 4:03 pm

Anyone remember the zero down-40 year mortgage? They got shut down eventually. I recall David Dodge lambasting the idea, calling them very un-helpful mortgages.
Boy oh boy lets hope we don’t follow the UK lead.

#55 Warren-the-lagging_indicator on 07.03.22 at 4:08 pm

Hmmmm, 33% they say, that is very interesting. I think the green bank may be trolling me. That is ok though as I will keep averaging down on their stock martingale style because that should work out well. Just like many on either side of the equation do with their lies. If only I had an unlimited bank roll.

#56 CL on 07.03.22 at 4:09 pm

It’s all so dumb. The banks are doing the lending ten expressing concern about the housing market. That’s what a moral hazard called CMHC causes.

“Amortizations of 50 years” – rent a house or rent money. No diff.

#57 DJT on 07.03.22 at 4:17 pm

BTC faces the same primary price risk as Oil;
regulatory risk, the market risk is negligible.

#58 Bon in Hamilton on 07.03.22 at 4:25 pm

“And you’ll have a helluva new reason to own bank stock.”

So true…

#59 ogdoad on 07.03.22 at 4:34 pm

#53 Sail Away on 07.03.22 at 3:58 pm

It’s frijoles not frijolies BTW. Take you jollies elsewhere please.

——–

‘your’

sigh

:):):):):):):):):):):):)

Fell off my care chair…Haha

$hit, share here how it is dudes…there is some big ‘release’ wait’n for ya both :):):)

Og

#60 NoName on 07.03.22 at 4:53 pm

@faron

interesting backyard project, but its also portable to take it on a hikes with powerbank and tetering of cellphone.

https://birdnetpi.com/?fbclid=IwAR0QQ3TzmPQFH5E88wCJM0t1Q68m3sp9tmvoUqsIkDKU3BJzOExbcWGxU_M

#61 tc-contra on 07.03.22 at 5:01 pm

“Prices usually follow sales by about six months. But not this time.”-Garth

//////////////////////////////////////////////

Is this another way of saying, “it’s different this time”?

Not really. We just get to see the greater fools faster. – Garth

#62 Faron on 07.03.22 at 5:02 pm

#52 Stoph on 07.03.22 at 3:58 pm

#25 Faron on 07.03.22 at 2:18 pm

If you’re interested in birding, check out the Merlin Bird ID app.

Cool, thanks Stoph. I was talking about that app with my sister this morning. She’s the birder in the family, but provides me with extra inspiration to pay closer attention to birds when I’m out doing things. She likes it, but finds that it’s a bit too much of a cheat.

I like birds because I like learning about and understanding all things in nature. More of a naturalist than I am a birder per se. Got onto the bird topic this morning when I let the hound out and saw a beautiful red-coloured finch of some kind. Narrowed it down to three.

#63 The Original Jake on 07.03.22 at 5:03 pm

So 30 yr. mortgages a reality here soon? I thought Canadians would never get that luxury… if we can call it that… debt for life! Covid changed the rules for generations to come.

#64 Bob Loblaw on 07.03.22 at 5:06 pm

So I guess the tulip like gains in Toronto over the past 25 years are permanent? Will Toronto become like China where people pay 40 times their income for a home?

#65 Philco on 07.03.22 at 5:07 pm

#9 crowdedelevatorfartz on 07.03.22 at 1:21 pm
A good time to wait and hold in the markets.
Avoid Real Estate.
Build up cash reserves.
Circle above the carnage.
Patience.

Like i said yesteryear. Nothing make any sence.
Zero debt i love meltdowns 75% cash. We goes shopping soon.
In the mean time going to borrow 500k to complete 3 buildings 18,000 sq ft. Of my new mini industrial park.
Climate control mini storarge
RV storage
Next phase contractor space.
On the sunshine ( rain today) coast.
Peeps talk about sh!tcoin cause they want instant success.
Like gamblers they only talk about their wins never their losses.
Keep lieing to yourself and one day you may believe it. Lol
Poohcoin = nothing. Just another shooting star.
What i do is bloody hard i come home all beat up i need 2 showers. But its steak and lobster every night.
Oh and the gov helps themselfs to 50% ++ and piss it against the wall. I have zero respect for those suits. All those hand outs realy paid off didnt they?
Now all you cerbs shut your pie hole cause froot loops are going up.
Im for the working class i made it from nothing while i had to sue loser skipping out on $80k in rent homless cracker in Courtenay stealing my tenants stuff.
This IS WHAT BECOMES WHEN YOU HAVE IDIOTS LIKE T2 IN CHARGE.
Drop the carbon tax
Het energy flowing nat gas diesiel amd gas. $9 gallon.
If you did that frootloops may go down.
Energy independence is critical and then you may be able to engeer all the components to deliver a green future.
Hydrogen nuclear rum of the river projects that work out behind my place in PR while the natives try to change the name!!!

#66 Old Boot on 07.03.22 at 5:10 pm

#53 Sail Away on 07.03.22 at 3:58 pm

#39 Faron on 07.03.22 at 3:12 pm

It’s frijoles not frijolies BTW. Take you jollies elsewhere please.

——–

‘your’

sigh

******

You can always tell when he’s got a righteous, rage-induced semi; his spelling goes all to hell.

#67 Faron on 07.03.22 at 5:12 pm

#45 Stone on 07.03.22 at 3:39 pm

If they reduce interest rates to zero, energy prices go to the moon.

No, I don’t think that makes sense. The problem is that rates and energy prices do not have a strong influence on one another. Or, if there is a link, it is one way.

Energy is supply constrained and has fairly inelastic demand. The Fed knows that it does not matter what they do with rates or what the bond market does, energy prices will stay high. They have signaled this. The fed put is gone exactly because it cannot control a huge chunk of the inflation picture with rate increases. This requires it to hammer rates to get at the portion it can control (real estate demand and that for consumer goods) while energy does whatever it will.

One way to get oil prices down is to increase supply. To increase supply one needs to increase CapEx. To increase CapEx one needs to influence the oil futures curve. Here’s why:

Currently, the futures curve is in steep backwardation meaning that future oil prices are much lower and even lower still the further one looks out the curve. The steepness of this curve puts a very very strong check on the capital expenditure of oil producers because it’s telling them that there is no guarantee that money spent now will be met with the same high oil prices when the project comes online in a few years.

This is the difference between the high price of oil now and that of the early 2010s. Back then producers had strong incentive to produce and new technology made that production possible.

#68 J. Herbert Steel on 07.03.22 at 5:22 pm

THANK YOU FOR YOUR AVICE ON BITCOIN.

ALMOST BOUGHT AT MARKET HIGH.

YOUR ADVISE ON A BALANCED PORTFOLIO, AND

DOLLAR COST AVERAGING IS GETTING ME TROUGH

THE DOWNTURN

#69 Faron on 07.03.22 at 5:24 pm

#53 Sail Away on 07.03.22 at 3:58 pm

Hey, glad to see my biggest fanbs are reading my stuff. It’s good, right?

Anyhow, I’m okay misspelling a word now and then in exchange for not being the kind of second-rate engineer who pompously claims to know about something he doesn’t. Like one of the most important pieces of software for collaborative development that the world has known (that would be git and the online hosting tool github).

#70 Philco on 07.03.22 at 5:25 pm

When you have spinless leaders.
This is what happens.
Sorry ive got a few wines in me and in the hot tub. .
Its raining a bear just crused by and now our 3 Deers are hanging by my fruit trees.

Ill take a honest guy in overalls to steer the ship.
T2 and mr Ndp are hideous. They will blame it on the rain pooty or anything but themselves. No responsible human does that. Its on you mr turkey.

And if ya rode bit crap up and down yor not that smart.
Like i said at $1250 Tesla RUN!! It was a bubble.
Im down maybe 20k on some reits thats it.
But when you made it to 8 digits. Thats a ok.
Always pretent your poor and drive used cars.
Then when the correction comes your locked and loaded to buy fools dum deeds. Buy low and ignor the crowd of nutbars.

Okay, cowboy. Enough. Just concentrate on not drowning. – Garth

#71 Faron on 07.03.22 at 5:26 pm

#66 Old Boot on 07.03.22 at 5:10 pm

#53 Sail Away on 07.03.22 at 3:58 pm

rage-induced semi

Ooh, so classy of you! Your tolerants is just leaking all over the place.

Anyhow, I think all of the semis are in Ottawa for the Canada day rally.

#72 Philco on 07.03.22 at 5:35 pm

#45 Stone on 07.03.22 at 3:39 pm

If they reduce interest rates to zero, energy prices go to the moon.

It called a bond market bro.
If we didnt have knuckles heads we could have $.95 litre.
Dont get me wrong when i fill my Tundra Duramax 580SM and 250Sr Case for a $1000 im not paying… my renters are the end user pays. When they realize where the problem is they may lose their sht. I get it they dont.
Dont blame int rates. Its always policies that get to your unintended consequences over time.
Here we are folks you let these idiots run the show then you got what you deserve. I called ot right here years ago under a diff handle.
Garth pls dont delete me this is a ton of work and im a one finger search and destroy on this diansour hand set. :)

#73 Grunt on 07.03.22 at 5:37 pm

Meanwhile the historic US SW drought worsens. Ponder living in a place without water and hydro like LA or LV.

Both lakes Mead & Powell are approaching dead pool. The Hoover & Grand Canyon dams are producing about 30% or less of their hydro capacity. There is less and less water for irrigation. And no water flowing down to Mexican farms south of there.

As for Canada & UK real estate. Screw it and it is. What does that matter compared to those soon trapped with no water?

By the way Garth no insult to you or your blog which I thank you for. Just trying to add a perspective.

#74 Pearson Airport Baggage Mishandler on 07.03.22 at 5:49 pm

To all the deplorables here flying through YYZ this weekend:

Please note we really don’t give a hoot anymore, so most of your bags stuck on the conveyor belt have been shipped off to Loserpeg. Or maybe Whitehorse.

Who knows? We’re taking our break now anyway.

#75 NOSTRADAMUS on 07.03.22 at 5:49 pm

ONLY GOOD TIME PROPHET’S!
This real estate bubble is bursting far, far faster than the last one. Greybeards will remember 1989, the start of of the last real estate correction (crash), poof, 30+% equity “GGGG” gone. In my area, the Kawartha Lakes, it took 12 long years to get back to the giddy days. Unlike today, there was little social media being used at that time. Only, massive self serving advertisement from the real estate cartel, duly pumped out day and night by the bought and paid for news media. One more nail in the coffin, we had by paid subscription, financial news letters from the prophets of prosperity. For only a few dollars a month you got a glimpse into the future. It was like having a crystal ball, just amazing. The problem being, the real estate cartel, the bought and paid for media and the tantalizing go to news letter prophet’s, all got it wrong. The entire economy blew up. And a generation lost their dreams and phantom wealth.
New point. Today there are blogs and people on You Tube, Twitter and Reddit documenting every little crack in the façade as things started to fall apart. This may sound harsh, but even Stevie Wonder could read the writing on the wall regarding this unfolding crash. Steady Lads, hold the line.

#76 Don Guillermo on 07.03.22 at 5:52 pm

#68 Faron on 07.03.22 at 5:26 pm
#66 Old Boot on 07.03.22 at 5:10 pm

#53 Sail Away on 07.03.22 at 3:58 pm

rage-induced semi
@@@@@@
I know. One nice birdie post and then straight into battle rage. It would be funny if it wasn’t so sad.

#77 the Jaguar on 07.03.22 at 5:55 pm

Well, I hate to come off like Lady Catherine de Bourgh , but allow me this clarification: The ‘frijoles’ were not Mexican, but Cuban, i.e. ‘Frijoles negros a la criolla’, though the rest of the menu remained Mexican in nature. How could it not be when one owns a tortilla press? For Sail Away they might be called “Caraotas Negras”.

Black bean recipes aside, is anyone else as interested in that business in Saanich? Talkin’ bout the robbery….

Twin brothers unknown to authorities? Like some Port Alberni fugitive flashback… Seems like there is more to this than meets the eye. Exactly what is in the water on Van Isle..?

Back down my rabbit hole before Garth hits the delete key…..

#78 Old Boot on 07.03.22 at 5:59 pm

#71 Faron on 07.03.22 at 5:26 pm

#66 Old Boot on 07.03.22 at 5:10 pm

#53 Sail Away on 07.03.22 at 3:58 pm

rage-induced semi

Ooh, so classy of you! Your *tolerants* is just leaking all over the place.

Anyhow, I think all of the semis are in Ottawa for the Canada day rally.

*******

If it lasts more than 4 hours, get professional help.

#79 Ed on 07.03.22 at 6:01 pm

How can you think there’s a drought in the middle of the Sonoran desert?

I guess its part of the religion.

#80 45north on 07.03.22 at 6:01 pm

yvr_lurker

Indeed house price decrease is offset by high interest rates. However, am not sure why you say that building a million more places would not improve affordability. Speculators buying this inventory? Or the price point at which these new units are built are way too high?

building a million more places is not possible. Ontario commissioned the Housing Affordability Task Force. It called for 1.5 million homes to be built in Ontario in the next 10 years. It’s not possible.

Here’s Robert Kavcic BMO senior economist

https://betterdwelling.com/ontarios-plan-to-build-1-5-million-homes-isnt-possible-after-peak-demand-bmo/

he wrote before the housing market crash. Now that the market has crashed, there will be fewer homes built because builders do not want to sell into a falling market. Builders consider their own interests. Major players consider their own interests.

#81 45north on 07.03.22 at 6:03 pm

In Britain the Boris Johnson government is about to unveil generational, half-century-long mortgages. Amortizations of 50 years, BoJo says, will stimulate the moribund market, help fight recession, temper the CB’s monetary policy romp and allow people to pass on debt to their children.

extend and pretend!

I don’t want to comment on British law and practice but in Canada a 50 year mortgage is bull shit! A 50 year mortgage is an agreement that could not be honoured so when there was a default it would be the mortgage holder against the bank’s legal department. The bank wins.

The do-goody politicians don’t want to hear about the end of the Canadian dream. But it is.

#82 Penny Henny on 07.03.22 at 6:10 pm

#78 Old Boot on 07.03.22 at 5:59 pm

rage-induced semi

????????????????

I thought you kept away from those things.
;)

#83 Build back poorer on 07.03.22 at 6:14 pm

DELETED

#84 Philco on 07.03.22 at 6:19 pm

Okay, cowboy. Enough. Just concentrate on not drowning. – Garth

Aha! Im dried off thinking this fall time to go all on open that acount?

Jeeshe $25k to disolve one company and $20k on a water leak.
Good lord good thing im not Hansom better to be handy these days.
Ok ill shut up now!

#85 Faron on 07.03.22 at 6:27 pm

#78 Old Boot on 07.03.22 at 5:59 pm

*tolerants*

Yes, when Clippy wakes up, I tend to sprinkle typos into my comments intentionally. Good job. YOu will get extra credit if you distinguish the likely typos from the unlikely. Failed in this case.

Once you achieve that level, ahall we call you “scribble”?. No one liked Clippy, but scribble seemed a little bit more tolerable. Get it?

#86 Cici on 07.03.22 at 6:44 pm

Anyone here noticing gas mileage going down?

I usually get about 550 km per tank in summer with each fill-up, but so far I’m at 261 km with only about 125 km left until I’m running on empty.

Either something’s wrong with my car (but it sounds, smells and runs fine) or something’s wrong with the gas we’re getting in Québec.

#87 Philco on 07.03.22 at 6:47 pm

Apologies Garth Maybe 1 to many.
This is the last place of respect and sensibility.
You got brain power my friend.
There’s no complaint dept. in Canada. Your it for me.
Trudeau is out for one person.
If he wasn’t he’d just stay home and talk to peeps on earth and do the right thing. He had rocks thrown at him for a reason. That would never happen if he was a real leader.
He’s out blowing hot air up hoops. Makes me angry as hell.
He won’t return my calls.

#88 Happy Gramps on 07.03.22 at 6:50 pm

The people who bought real estate in the last ten years should just suck up and live with their consequences. I think we need to get the downturn from last years prices by 50% to be closer to a realistic value. If you buy without the proper financial analysis, rather than emotion, you live with the results, and keep the government out of trying to save these poor sods. They’ll only screw it up more.

#89 Old Boot on 07.03.22 at 6:55 pm

#82 Penny Henny on 07.03.22 at 6:10 pm
#78 Old Boot on 07.03.22 at 5:59 pm

rage-induced semi

????????????????

I thought you kept away from those things.
;)

*******

I do try, but now that they’re allowed in every women’s space in the country, it’s become increasing difficult.

#90 Johnny Debt on 07.03.22 at 6:58 pm

Funny.

Solve debt problem with…MORE DEBT!

50 year mortgages? Yeah, why not!

100% financing 0% down? Let’s do it!

The closer you look, the more morally and ethically lost the western economies appear.

Debt more than ever is the tool of enslavement, now featuring no money down and 50 years without parole life sentences, to be served by your children.

How can we expect politicians to be fiscally responsible with public spending when they implement such policies for their people?

#91 Faron on 07.03.22 at 7:05 pm

#77 the Jaguar on 07.03.22 at 5:55 pm

Black bean recipes aside, is anyone else as interested in that business in Saanich?

Biked past there yesterday and saw the bullet holes in the glass at the bank entryway. Crazy.

Latest I heard is that they were Trudeau-hating, pro gun rights (duh) anti vaxx, convoy supporters based on what was found on their social media. Not unlike a certain element of commenters to this blog that Garth regularly mocks and or deletes.

Black beans are good and all, but pintos are where it’s at IMO. More TexMex, but about as close to meat as one can get with a veggie. Yum.

Dead simple black bean recipe for emergency dinner.

–Chop an onion into bean-sized chunks and saute until ~clear in butter or veggie oil.
–Stir in a tbsp or two of any basic Indian curry powder and saute until the oil has absorbed and extracted the flavour from the curry.
–Dump in a can or a can’s worth of black beans including the cooking juice and continue to cook until it thickens up to somewhere between honey and peanut butter consistency.
–Salt to taste
–Ladle a scoop or two into a warmed tortilla and roll up and enjoy.

(sorry to the Indians out there who will bristle at calling something as complex/diverse as curry by a single name).

#92 Leftover on 07.03.22 at 7:11 pm

#15 None on 07.03.22 at 1:49 pm

Could not agree more

Tax it

#93 ogdoad on 07.03.22 at 7:16 pm

#78 Old Boot on 07.03.22 at 5:59 pm

If it lasts more than 4 hours, get professional help.

:):):):)

What’s wrong if it lasts more than 4hrs?

Og

#94 jess on 07.03.22 at 7:16 pm

Universal Flu Vaccine Enters Clinical Trials in Humans

The National Institutes of Health (NIH) announced on Tuesday that a universal flu vaccine has moved to phase I clinical trials, where scientists will test for human safety and appropriate dosage sizes.
With the BPL-1357 vaccine, especially when given intranasally, we are attempting to induce a comprehensive immune response that closely mimics immunity gained following a natural influenza infection,” says Matthew Memoli, a NIAID investigator leading the vaccine trial, in a statement. “This is very different than nearly all other vaccines for influenza or other respiratory viruses, which focus on inducing immunity to a single viral antigen and often do not induce mucosal immunity.”

#95 Faron on 07.03.22 at 7:17 pm

#60 NoName on 07.03.22 at 4:53 pm

@faron

interesting backyard project, but its also portable to take it on a hikes with powerbank and tetering of cellphone.

https://birdnetpi.com/?fbclid=IwAR0QQ3TzmPQFH5E88wCJM0t1Q68m3sp9tmvoUqsIkDKU3BJzOExbcWGxU_M

Hah, wow. That’s super cool. I have a Raspberry Pi kicking around. Might be fun to play with one day. Looks like you can download the database of fingerprints for offline IDing. The power of FFTs.

Anyhow, too much from me today. Clippy of Scribbles will be posting the list of my comments sooner than later.

#96 Philco on 07.03.22 at 7:23 pm

#80 45north on 07.03.22 at 6:01 pm

Yes builders are going to shutter and only exacerbates the problem down the road.
Prices can crack for now. It does not help anything in my view. Peeps that didn’t make stupid decisions will be fine.
#1 figure out what a lots worth, the the cost of building per sq ft…Dum dums then go from there.
It ain’t rocket science.

#97 jess on 07.03.22 at 7:36 pm

“The shepherd drives the wolf from the sheep’ throat,for which the sheep thanks the shepherd as a liberator,while the wolf denounces him for the same act as the destroyer of liberty,especially as the sheep was a black one.” April 18th 1864 Lincoln

#98 Concerned Citizen on 07.03.22 at 7:41 pm

We’re already starting to see the consequences of the “protect Mom and Pop investors” policy play out. Folks in jobs from nursing to airline staff can, in many cases, no longer afford to live with skyrocketing rents, soaring food bills, etc. So either they get huge raises – worsening the already awful inflation situation – or emergency rooms get closed and airports get chaotic.

And if you’re a skilled immigrant selecting a country, why on Earth would you move to Ontario or BC with the crazy cost of living? It’s a big world out there with lots of great places to live, and many that don’t promise to make you house poor for your entire adult life.

From politicians to central bankers on down, we are ruled by incompetent clowns. But hey, I’m sure all will be better when home prices surge another 20% in half a year. After all, I understand from central bankers that “we need the growth.” And don’t think it won’t happen. Bond yields have already been coming down in anticipation of the next printathon around the corner.

#99 Ban Bitcoin on 07.03.22 at 7:42 pm

Bitcoin is currently struggling at the US$19,000 level. What happens to those who bought at US$40,000 or at its peak US$65,000?

imagine buying 1 bitcoin for US$65,000 anticipating the Cathy Wood’s valuation of US$500,000 and now seeing it in a freefall.

You just lost US$46,000 there buddy.

#100 Philco on 07.03.22 at 7:44 pm

#81 45north on 07.03.22 at 6:03 pm

Yup created out of thin air then your the slave.
Good thing I started early.
What a game hey bro?
I’m doon ok but it means nothing. ANYTHING can happen.
Count on that.
The gov can pull the ground right out from under you. I’ve seen it happen.
In the end you own nothing.
It is a GAME….Day make the rules.

#101 Cici on 07.03.22 at 8:06 pm

“The bottom line: way more debt. Infinitely more interest paid over the life of a home loan. The reality that many people will never in their adult lives be mortgage-free.”

Oh, so that explains how the “Great Reset” is going to pan out. You will owe everything but actually own nothing until you are freed by death.

I’m not sure the majority of us plebes are dumb enough to fall for this. But I’m probably wrong ;-)!

#102 WTF on 07.03.22 at 8:23 pm

#43 Jane “Now I would like to hear Royal Lepage’s current thoughts as they claimed crease by 12%. They have massive egg on face now. Where are they?”
—————————————————————–
Thanks for the chuckle.

RE Industry “leaders” retractions? Not while bald faced lying is legal. It will continue. Uppa!

House Sales people Dues drying up is probably Royal Lepage’s only concern. Ethical changes for public benefit? Please….

Look forward to the mass exodus, the service industry needs eager employees. I need a slightly used Audi. Win Win!

#103 Philco on 07.03.22 at 8:25 pm

#73 Grunt on 07.03.22 at 5:37 pm

Yup Meeds toast california hooped and no ones talking about it.
Its a major issue.
We good 27 lakes behind us no one peeing in them or flushing their drugs.
There were tropical forests in africa 1000 years ago now deserts.
Dont blame Ford.
Politicians are corrupt retards. When you get the scope of what we are up against then there may be a chance. Even Venezuela is picking up speed.
1st worlds are failing cause weinners float to the top at the end of empire’s.
You got a wennier.

#104 Doing my Part on 07.03.22 at 8:50 pm

If Garth doesn’t want to do it,
Philco for Prime Minister!
I love this guy.

#105 crowdedelevatorfartz on 07.03.22 at 8:55 pm

@#77 the jaguar
“Black bean recipes aside, is anyone else as interested in that business in Saanich? Talkin’ bout the robbery….

Twin brothers unknown to authorities? Like some Port Alberni fugitive flashback… Seems like there is more to this than meets the eye.”
++++

Yeah.
The whole thing seems a tad odd.
Two kids armed to the teeth a la Call of Duty fantasy bank robbery.
And a fully armed SWAT tactical squad…”just happened to be in the neighborhood on another call…..”

Either way the Trudeau anti gun lobby spin doctors will fall all over themselves over the political points.

#106 Sail Away on 07.03.22 at 9:00 pm

Texting strategy

Husband to wife: Do u remember the name of that movie with the robots my dad mentioned?

…4 hours pass…

Husband: My ex stopped by the office

…32 seconds pass…

Wife: What did she want?
Husband: She was wondering if u remember the name of that movie with the robots my dad mentioned

#107 John in Mtl on 07.03.22 at 9:02 pm

#10 When Will They Raise Rates? on 07.03.22 at 1:37 pm

BREAKING…
B.A. 2.7.5 is here folks!
100% immune escape

If that is true and Geert Vanden Bossche’s analysis/theory pans out, we are then truly, totally, screwed!! A B&D portfolio will be the last thing on peoples’ mind!

#108 Ponzius Pilatus on 07.03.22 at 9:13 pm

#39 Faron on 07.03.22 at 3:12 pm
#16 Don Guillermo on 07.03.22 at 1:53 pm
#110 the Jaguar on 07.01.22 at 6:22 pm

My first Canada Day was in Calgary. Loved it for a variety of reasons. The only downside was going to a bar, asking for an IPA and getting a Keith’s. God no, WTF?

It’s frijoles not frijolies BTW. Take you jollies elsewhere please.
—————————-
Alexander Keith’s in my opinion is one of the best lagers in Canada.
A good IPA is hard to find.
Usually too sweet.

#109 yvr_lurker on 07.03.22 at 9:19 pm

#103 Yup Meeds toast california hooped and no ones talking about it.
Its a major issue.
———

After some of the articles I have read on this topic over the past few months, it seems like the rapid decline of this reservoir will be a huge problem in the medium-term unless the drought somehow ends. Somehow this major problem does not have the urgency that it should. Here in BC when we have 14C on July 3rd and it is raining yet again, all we need to do is pop one more Prozac and all is good… no water problems…

#110 Stoph on 07.03.22 at 9:21 pm

#62 Faron on 07.03.22 at 5:02 pm
RE Merlin Bird ID app

—————————————————————

Rather than cheating, I find that the app makes birding accessible. I had tried birding years ago with little success. It’s very hard otherwise to ID a bird that you may only get to see for a second or two or to and whose call you don’t know. Besides joining a birding club to learn all the intricacies isn’t my thing.

#111 Stealth on 07.03.22 at 9:26 pm

Thank you,
When mentioning bank stocks, do you imply Canadian bank stocks only or internationally as well?

Cheers

#112 crowdedelevatorfartz on 07.03.22 at 9:28 pm

Slowly inching towards total war?

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/least-three-killed-blasts-russias-belgorod-near-ukraine-border-local-governor-2022-07-03/

Ukraine targets Russian city…..

#113 Faron on 07.03.22 at 9:56 pm

I’d venture that Bitcoin has support at about $16k at the moment.

#114 X on 07.03.22 at 9:58 pm

So 40 yr amortizaiton periods were bad, because they gased the RE market too much, yet 50 yr amortization period is good, as the market currently is returning to a reasonable level. LOL. Sounds like Trudeau logic.

#115 Faron on 07.03.22 at 10:02 pm

#110 Stoph on 07.03.22 at 9:21 pm
#62 Faron on 07.03.22 at 5:02 pm

Rather than cheating, I find that the app makes birding accessible. I had tried birding years ago with little success. It’s very hard otherwise to ID a bird that you may only get to see for a second or two or to and whose call you don’t know. Besides joining a birding club to learn all the intricacies isn’t my thing.

Yeah, that’s cool. I don’t think and didn’t mean to imply that there’s a wrong way to do it. Anything that gets one outside and appreciating birds or any creature is good.

I’m speaking for her, but her experience is that it takes away from the time consuming need to patiently stalk a bird to lay eyes on it. She found that enjoyable, but also appreciates the ability to fingerprint what’s there. Others may not. Given how hard it is to differentiate certain species, all of these tools probably enrich one’s experience. I love hanging out with birders and going along for the ride. Opens one’s eyes to just how much is right under our noses, but that we never see nor appreciate.

#116 Victor Llearna on 07.03.22 at 10:09 pm

Great new word today ‘ Faustian’. Best wau to use in a Sentence: Jagmeet Singh entered into a Faustian pact with that idiot trudeau

#117 Tales from the Crypt-Oh on 07.03.22 at 10:12 pm

#99 Ban Bitcoin

Bitcoin is currently struggling at the US$19,000 level. What happens to those who bought at US$40,000 or at its peak US$65,000?

imagine buying 1 bitcoin for US$65,000 anticipating the Cathy Wood’s valuation of US$500,000 and now seeing it in a freefall.

You just lost US$46,000 there buddy.

>>>

This is what is fascinating. We understanding it, but others don’t understand that someone else is on the other side of this transaction that transfers funds from one perception to the next.

It’s actually one of the beautiful things no one has to think about when someone claims gains – who’s on the loss end. Hey, screw that guy! Who cares?

#118 1255 on 07.03.22 at 10:18 pm

I don’t know how you can call it a crash when the prices shouldn’t have been that high to begin with. Even pre-COVID levels were too high.

#119 Tom from Mississauga on 07.03.22 at 10:27 pm

50 year mortgage credit is pouring gasoline on the inflation fire. Germany hopes for LNG from Canada. Europe really is coming apart, fast.

#120 Philco on 07.03.22 at 10:29 pm

#104 Doing my Part on 07.03.22 at 8:50 pm
If Garth doesn’t want to do it,
Philco for Prime Minister!
I love this guy.
——————
Tank you you my spelling sucks but Ill doo my best and go down own in flames trying.
I want everyone in this country to succeed. When everyone’s rich around you YOUR RICHER. We all win in the end.
Stop the lies and fantasies free ponies, they don’t work.
Rubber meets the road ALWAYs
Cheers

#121 JRinVic on 07.03.22 at 11:01 pm

Once again politicians will make a mess of things all in the name of buying votes. Instead of providing meaningful solutions that can alleviate the issues they provide empty promises that just make things worse.
50 year mortgages? Next will be the no amort mortgage where you just pay monthly forever and pass it on.

Just to highlight the stupidity.
$1 000 000 mortgage at 5% and 25yr amort gives you a monthly payment of $5816. After 5 years you have paid off 115k in principal and 234k in interest.

Take the same mortgage over 50 years.
Monthly of $4505. So down by $1300/mo but you only pay off 26k in principal and 244k in interest.

Can we not see how bad this is?! Double the amort but pay down only 1/4ish of the principal and more interest. Better off renting!

Terrible politics and people will clamour for it because we can’t get over home ownership in Canada. Boosting prices again for the illusion of owning.

#122 fishman on 07.03.22 at 11:03 pm

I see two markets in the R/E playground of Van west side close to the ocean. The rich buy at old prices picking up any quality that comes up. Privacy, quiet, view, solid building. The rest, even in the same building, but on the wrong side aren’t closing. I’ve been watching one at $800/sq.ft. that needs a little work inside, but the building is good. Hasn’t sold. A few months ago nothing under $1000/sq.ft. This is a good time to be a Looky Lou in R/E. If your serious the agents have time & sooner or later the numbers will work. Just like fishing. Can’t catch any fish with the hooks out of the water.

#123 Reality is stark on 07.03.22 at 11:05 pm

Governments are foolish.
Home ownership is actually counterproductive. When people pass on relocation for better employment opportunities to stay where their house appreciates with tax free gains we all lose.
After all these articles the stiffs in the steerage section here continue on with bizarre conclusions. Compared to the average New Yorker (where renting is the norm) Canadians are simply financially illiterate.
The life altering real estate losses of the last 4 months and resulting closing catastrophes differentiate us from a more financially balanced citizen from New York City.
They are simply more astute.
Canadians suffer from the vagaries of boom/bust investment strategies just as we replicate our boom/bust natural resources economy.
This is completely and easily avoidable.
The general conclusion is that most Canadians are actually quite stupid.
To top it off they elect a guy who honestly believes that deficits are the key to the promised land and that you can borrow your way to prosperity even though his father did the exact same thing and the experiment failed miserably.
T2 is employing Einstein’s theory of insanity as his guiding philosophy and is unapologetic about it and most citizens support it.
It really is comical to watch the tragedy unfold.
Unfortunately some have to live the tragedy.

#124 Don Guillermo on 07.03.22 at 11:59 pm

#108 Ponzius Pilatus on 07.03.22 at 9:13
#16 Don Guillermo on 07.03.22 at 1:53 pm
#110 the Jaguar on 07.01.22
—————————-
Alexander Keith’s in my opinion is one of the best lagers in Canada.
A good IPA is hard to find.
Usually too sweet.
*********
I usually have an IPA when out. Many good ones around here. I prefer them less hoppy. My buddy always orders Keith’s – his name is Keith. I’ve even found 2 Craft IPAs in Mazatlan that are very good. They pronounce it eepah. :-)

#125 Good To See on 07.04.22 at 5:43 am

Seems The Addict is doing well, down to only about 12 posts today and not every single one of them frothing rage. Although, the rapid mood swings are troubling. Almost like some are pre-meds and some post.

Baby steps prof, baby steps.

#126 Wrk.dover on 07.04.22 at 7:01 am

Boil some peas, drain the water and chill it.

Now compare the flavor of that to Keith’s beer.

Way too similar!

#127 TurnerNation on 07.04.22 at 8:44 am

There is a housing market decline?
The front page of this weekend’s Toronto Star read “Ontario’s Omicron Deaths”.

Surprised? We know this is not designed to be over. Year 2.5 milestone. See ya in 2025 or 30.
And what do we see but tens thousands of airline flights cancelled, delayed, and taken off the schedule in peak summertime.
(But only in the Former First World Countries, natch.)

Yes, this the restrictions were always about control over our Travel/Movement, Feeding, and Breeding.
The border controls, A.I. tracking. global digital ID. All being slowly rolled out.

— Wait till you find that ESG regs will be further used to destroy small business. The global new system is run by the big corps. Why the others were ordered closed, March 2020. For our health.

#128 Dharma Bum on 07.04.22 at 9:48 am

#126 Wrk. Dover

Mmmmmmm…..boiled pea water……

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=msQPHxTUgzI&feature=emb_logo

#129 crowdedelevatorfartz on 07.04.22 at 10:11 am

@#108 Ponzies Perfect Pint
“Alexander Keith’s in my opinion is one of the best lagers in Canada.”
+++
It was voted the #1 beer in Canada back in the late 1980’s

I usually only drink it when I’m in Nova Scotia.
It’s been sitting on the shelf a little less than BC.

#130 baloney Sandwitch on 07.04.22 at 10:49 am

You think things are bad? It’s only started. They are going to get worse. David Rosenberg, who correctly called the ’00 and ’08 recessions, is saying we are only halfway through. Stocks and houses have only laid an egg, they are going to lay a cow next.
https://www.gurufocus.com/news/1797657/david-rosenberg-dont-buy-the-dips-yet

Rosenberg has predicted 43 of the last two downturns. – Garth

#131 Shawn on 07.04.22 at 11:04 am

Canadian government debt statistics

Some interesting facts here. Not all bad actually.

https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/daily-quotidien/220704/dq220704a-eng.htm?CMP=mstatcan

#132 Ponzius Pilatus on 07.04.22 at 11:09 am

#124 Don Guillermo on 07.03.22 at 11:59 pm
#108 Ponzius Pilatus on 07.03.22 at 9:13
#16 Don Guillermo on 07.03.22 at 1:53 pm
#110 the Jaguar on 07.01.22
—————————-
Alexander Keith’s in my opinion is one of the best lagers in Canada.
A good IPA is hard to find.
Usually too sweet.
*********
I usually have an IPA when out. Many good ones around here. I prefer them less hoppy. My buddy always orders Keith’s – his name is Keith. I’ve even found 2 Craft IPAs in Mazatlan that are very good. They pronounce it eepah. :-)
——————
I’m an traditionalist here.
If I want a Munich Style Lager, it has to be a close .
facsimile. No imposter.
Most IPAs are not even close the original.
INDIA PALE ALE.
Had to be very hoppy and high alcohol, to sustain the long journey.
As for “craft beer”, too many are pretentious wannabes.
But I’ve been pleasantly surprised when I just ordered the house draft.
Just call me a “beer snob”.
No Bud for me.

#133 Ponzius Pilatus on 07.04.22 at 11:13 am

#119 Tom from Mississauga on 07.03.22 at 10:27 pm
50 year mortgage credit is pouring gasoline on the inflation fire. Germany hopes for LNG from Canada. Europe really is coming apart, fast.
————————
Yeah,
Looks like it, right now.
But I never bet against Germany.
She always comes back.

#134 Brent on 07.04.22 at 11:54 am

Sold our house in Port Alberni 1st week $40k
over ask. Just sold my mother in laws condo
In Calgary 30k under asking

#135 Don Guillermo on 07.04.22 at 11:56 am

#132 Ponzius Pilatus on 07.04.22 at 11:09 am

The IPAs I’m used are > 6.2 %, hoppy and not sweet and you’re correct, they were designed that way to survive the long journey to the colonies. One of my local favorites is Last Best IPA.

https://albeerta.com/last-best-brewing-last-best-ipa/

#136 Quintilian on 07.04.22 at 12:20 pm

“Rosenberg has predicted 43 of the last two downturns. – Garth”

The fatal flaws in Rosenberg’s calculations- he leaves out the idiocy of humans and the corruption of politics.

#137 Damifino on 07.04.22 at 1:32 pm

#119 Tom from Mississauga

Germany hopes for LNG from Canada. Europe really is coming apart, fast.
—————————————

Why don’t they just “go green”? It’s all they’ve ever talked about for the last 10 years.

First, they undermine their own energy independence, then start digging coal when the inevitable occurs.

I’d always had Europeans, and especially Germans, pegged as smarter than that. Time to get cracking on some more wind turbines. Only a “dozen or so years left”, they say. Or is it… “says the left”?

#138 Pure Polyester on 07.04.22 at 2:31 pm

Us landlords may lose the next battle but we’ll win the war.

#139 Erkstvs on 07.04.22 at 6:06 pm

Just finished a book called “The Coming of New Feudalism”. Pretty interesting and terrifying predictions in terms of where societies are headed both behaviourally and economically. The last two years have been sobering and scary. It is all clearly coming… less and less accidental and more insidious… i, like so many 30 something year olds now firmly believe the best is behind us. Sad times…