Chill

This tale’s been told before. Here it is again, for context.

When stocks laid an egg in 1987 I was business editor and columnist with a major daily newspaper. It was a Monday in October. The nineteenth. I was 38, owned a house, had been married to Dorothy for 16 years, with two German shepherds and had money invested in the latest hot assets – mutual funds. I should have known better, but did not. A lack of experience.

That day the Dow shed 22.6% in a single session. The DJ machine in my office rang its alert bell every few minutes. People wandered in from the newsroom to stand over it, look crushed, and read the spewing ribbon of headlines that it typed in purple ink. Obviously the world was ending.

So the next day I ran a column on dire consequences accompanied by photos of jobless men lined up at a soup kitchen in 1931. After all, at more than 22% this was far larger than the greatest crash history had previously seen – October 28, 1929, when the market dumped 12.8%. In retrospect, this sensationalism may have scared some people into selling things they owned at a loss. That’s my regret.

Well, that week CBs started to react, dumping rates, while exchanges moved to implement trading controls and curbs, tempering emotion. Within months, markets regained lost ground. The return for the year as a whole by December 31st was positive 2.26%. Anyone who ignored Black Monday suffered no consequence. Correctly, I looked like a guy conquered by recency bias, thinking current conditions – bank rate of 8.4%, mortgages at 11.5% and the lingering effects of a recession with 12.4% unemployment – were shoving us over the edge.

But Mr. Market laughed. He had other ideas. Excess valuations had been blown off and the ground established for a sustained advance. In 1988 the Dow gained 11.85%. The next year it added 26.9%.

There were more lessons to come in humility. Y2K. A financial crisis in Asia. The dot-com bust. Nortel going to zero. Nine Eleven. The debt ceiling crisis. The credit crisis. Trump. Then Covid.

Each teaches us that what men fear most rarely materializes. Decisions made on the spur of change are usually poor ones. It’s not so much what might go wrong – because something always is – but how we deal with it. More times than I care to count, doing nothing has been the best strategy. Emotion is the enemy. So, with decades under my belt as a reporter, an elected guy, a financial author, investor, business dude and advisor, I offer this one observation to live by: it’s not different this time.

The last blog post posited that inflation will be thwarted in time, rates will stabilize, the economy will shake off recession and people with common-sense investments will do fine. Moreover, real estate will suffer more declines, but losing 50% of its value – with average properties across Canada going from $800,000 down to $400,000 – ain’t in the cards. Nor are 10% mortgages or 8% GICs. Not never. But not this time.

Having said that, the disconnect between what’s happening and what most people think is occurring, grows. Bloomberg’s latest Nik Nanos poll says the confidence of Canadians has fallen to “near crisis-era lows in an ominous sign for the nation’s economic outlook.”

Households, we’re told, are buckling under the weight of rising interest rates and falling house prices since, as you well know, we’re a nation with a one-asset investment fetish. Despite this pathetic blog’s best effort (now that I am wizened, chastened and experienced).

Meanwhile, unemployment is at a 50-year low and job openings are at an historic high. Only 9% of people say they fret about losing a job. That’s unique. Retail spending is robust. The airports are jammed with vacationers. “Canada’s economy continues to perform well on balance and that should be further reinforced by Thursday’s GDP releases,” says Scotiabank economist Derek Holt, who thinks our economy should continue to outperform that of the US.

Will rates continue to rise throughout 2022? You betcha. A lot, actually. Will this clobber people who are over-extended or succumbed to property FOMO? Yes, without a doubt. Will we have a recession, maybe by autumn or during the winter? Probably, yeah. Have we been through rate-tightening cycles, negative economic growth or times when folks who made bad choices before been spanked? Duh. And has there ever been a time the world had no wars?

Markets price in problems. That’s why we had a swoon in equities, bonds, crypto and almost every other financial asset over the last three months. Now even big bank stocks are down 20%, just after having jacked up their dividends once again. Oil is over a hundred bucks. It’s our biggest export. And never forget that moribund, dying economies do not radiate inflation and rising rates. Those are the spawn of expansion.

So, if you borrowed too deeply and spent too much, you may be hurting. That was a choice. Live with it.

As for portfolios, bear this comment in mind: “Even though a recession has become the consensus view among strategists, the market is not reacting to the negative news,” says Pennock Idea Hub. “While it’s impossible to know if another shock could spark another risk-off episode, the long-term risk/return outlook for equities is becoming more attractive at these levels.”

In other words, it’s not different. You are not living in historic times, nor are these uncharted waters.

Circumstances change. But people can’t. I learned that on a Monday thirty-five years ago.

About the picture: “Here’s Louie after seeing the latest inflation numbers,” writes Corey. “Louie is 4 years old. He came from the Greater Edmonton Animal Rescue Society as a puppy. He enjoys sitting on the back porch and greeting passersby with a howl that stops them in their tracks.”

137 comments ↓

#1 Victor Llearna on 06.27.22 at 3:34 pm

Great lesson learned today : it’s not different this time.

The FOMO sheep with huge debt will also learn valuable lesson

#2 Ben on 06.27.22 at 3:36 pm

First

#3 JacqueShellacque on 06.27.22 at 3:54 pm

Ignores path dependence, Garth. Arithmetic averages are misleading because devestation like 1987 just ‘brings down the average’. But nobody gets the average, each individual gets their path. And if the path includes a 22% drawdown shortly before they need the money, it’s crushing:

“The return for the year as a whole by December 31st was positive 2.26%. Anyone who ignored Black Monday suffered no consequence.”

#4 Cato on 06.27.22 at 4:01 pm

“it’s not different this time.” Until it is.

There have been many times in history when it has been “different this time”. You just need to look beyond the limits of your personal existence and geography.

Furthermore, if there is something you can count on is that there will be more of those times where in retrospect you will say it was “different this time.”

In the next few decades we might see:

– the world order change.
– the greenback lose its status as the word reserve-currency.
– the US implode due to a combination of internal and external conflicts. (yes, I know about the “Never bet against America” mantra; surely the same was said about the Romans)
– of particular significance will be the showdown over Taiwan.

#5 rampant inflation on 06.27.22 at 4:05 pm

the risk reward for equities will look better at the covid lows. next year. i’m sure that’s what Pennock will say then too.

when it’s clear we have a bear market, you don’t stand in the way and watch your profits disappear. get out until it’s over. save yourself some pain. if you can’t figure it out, hire someone that can. it’s not rocket science.

#6 North snore on 06.27.22 at 4:08 pm

Hey Søren Angst, just wanted to pick your brain again, as your the next guy after Garth-o here who seems to have some extra gray matter in their heads. (MSU)

Do you live in Italy full time?

You mentioned you used your visa in Italy, is the exchange on the card better than just bringing your cash over to an Italian bank?

If you have money in Canada, (I’m assuming you do and that’s invested) who(Italy or canada) do you pay taxes on that income?

Thanks

#7 Faron on 06.27.22 at 4:09 pm

#128 Don Guillermo on 06.27.22 at 3:25 pm

The devastating flooding from Harvey was made worse by climate change. It’s a fact that increasing CO2 in the atmosphere will make weather disasters worse and more costly. Read the IPCC report for thousands of supporting articles.

Oh, right, in Canada we just have oil trains immolating small towns or special RCMP detachments using paramilitary force on indigenous lands. I forgot.

Whether that kind of rig disaster can or will happen in Canada is irrelevant (it or something similar will almost certainly happen as is the nature of human activities and lax oversight). The point of highlighting the Deepwater Horizon case is that the externalitites of O+G burning are far more massive than most realize. Thus making the true cost of burning fossil fuels far, far higher than the per bbl rate. Or, to put it another way, the O+G sectors are highly, embarrassingly subsidized by everyone at the benefit of the sector and thus to the much lesser benefit to everyone else.

#8 Felix on 06.27.22 at 4:11 pm

“….with two German shepherds ….. I should have known better, but did not. A lack of experience.”

So true. A smart and honest admission from you, Garth.

Being older, wiser and smarter naturally attracts humans to cats, not dogawful mutts.

#9 None on 06.27.22 at 4:12 pm

I’m not sure I agree with you about the national average declining by 50% in the cards. I actually think it would be the healthiest thing to happen to the market and to Canada as a whole. Asset ownership needs to go back to wage earners. A decline like that would solve a number of societal ills.

#10 Sail Away on 06.27.22 at 4:16 pm

Who cares if a recession ensues? The bell of global financial doom is not tolling.

Buy low… then if markets keep dropping, buy lower. And repeat as cash becomes available.

Many of my recent buys are red while several have also blinked to black. It happens. And it’s ok.

#11 Caffeine Monkey on 06.27.22 at 4:19 pm

“Moreover, real estate will suffer more declines, but losing 50% of its value – with average properties across Canada going from $800,000 down to $400,000 – ain’t in the cards.”
—-
Canada as an average, sure. But select markets? I bet it’s possible. If you take a look at this graph from the Fed, especially when you change the y-axis to a natural log (select “edit graph”) it sure as hell looks like a 50% drop is possible.

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/QCAR628BIS#0

#12 Grunt on 06.27.22 at 4:29 pm

Russian debt default initialized by sanctions as a pressure tactic to keep Putin selling oil, NG & LNG. CN, DE, FR & NL still VERY dependent.

#13 Sask to AB on 06.27.22 at 4:31 pm

Great post, Garth. Thank you.
F59AB

#14 Sail Away on 06.27.22 at 4:32 pm

#110 crowdedelevatorfartz on 06.27.22 at 12:27 pm
@#109 Sail Away

“Religion or non-religion are both equally protected.”

——–

The Supreme court case in question ruled in favor of a High School Coach who was repeatedly asked by school officials not to hold prayer sessions on the field immediately after the game. It offended some of the non religious students and parents attending the games.

He refused to stop his prayers and was fired.
He now gets to sue for wrongful dismissal.

——–

That’s exactly the point of free speech: sometimes others will choose to be offended by it. And that’s exactly why it is a right, not a subjective privilege.

Someone exercising free speech is subject to the free speech of others in reaction. Also protected.

But. Not. Retribution.

This is fundamental. Think it through.

#15 Paddy on 06.27.22 at 4:32 pm

Crisis after crisis after crisis….then another crisis and another crisis….the word “crisis” starts to lose meaning when it’s used as often as it is.
Morgan Housel wrote in his excellent book, The Psychology of Money: “Things that have never happened before happen all the time”…..so there’s another “crisis” just around the corner, I can guarantee it.

“It’s not so much what might go wrong – because something always is – but how we deal with it”

Wise words Garth.

Very good point Garth about things that are out of our control

#16 Madcat on 06.27.22 at 4:33 pm

“Moreover, real estate will suffer more declines, but losing 50% of its value – with average properties across Canada going from $800,000 down to $400,000 – ain’t in the cards. Nor are 10% mortgages or 8% GICs. Not never. But not this time.”

True… But 2.8 mil might get to 1.6 mil

#17 red falcon on 06.27.22 at 4:36 pm

FOMO sheep with huge debt will definitely learn….
they have to pay tuition with it somehow lol.

Sheep will be sheep, and then get sheared and cut and all sorts of wonderful things, because they sheep. end of story.

#18 1987 Crash on 06.27.22 at 4:39 pm

Thanks for the blog Garth
And you are correct it will come back

Dare I say you are wrong about your blog today about what you wrote in 1987?

I Have read allot about the crash in 1987 and most analysis say we were within minutes of a total economic collapse. If the Federal reserve did not step in it was all over.

So you were right in your article, in the end you did not know, the central bank would save the day.

So yes you learned a valuable lesson, which resulted in great advice during Covid and you made the correct call then as you have now.
Hang on!

I have started buying, might be early but ……

Have a great week.

#19 Marina on 06.27.22 at 4:40 pm

What about Argentina, Venezuela, Greece, Zimbabwe, USSR, Bolivia, Mexico, Chile, Pakistan, Turkey etc. and many more countries that got their money worth as good as wall paper. Look at even China, Japan, Hong Kong and many other countries that looked like they were too great to get whacked hard but did and still are.

I think Canada, US, Europe and many other countries are in for a rude awakening if they don’t stop looking at and dipping in slowly but are in socialist, marxist, communist policies. People are too trusting these days about handouts, freebies etc.

#20 Bitcoin Bro on 06.27.22 at 4:46 pm

In terms of personal investing, “It’s not different this time” is a good philosophy to keep an even keel. “Little” debt cycles are normal and healthy.

However, there is a lot of compelling evidence to suggest we’re approaching the end of the “Big” debt cycle. Ray Dalio’s work on this outlines the anatomy of these cycles very well. Lyn Alden is another good source.

This doesn’t mean sell all your assets, buy rice and beans and prepare a bomb shelter. But it also doesn’t mean you should completely discount the possibility of a world approaching 300% debt to GDP ending in a bad way. Just because it’s “never been different” in any of our lifetimes doesn’t mean it will stay that way.

#21 ogdoad on 06.27.22 at 4:59 pm

Unfortunately our society today doesn’t know how to chill b/c we have never experienced much of anything aside from pets dying, grandpa croaking and everything else we think we can relate to on the internet – edited 4 billion times for ‘perfection’. Aren’t we cute…

You really wanna chill? Unplug, man. We’re whizzing through space at 30+ thousand mph…into the unknown…$hit could happen to us at any moment here on earth that would make your 10% loss of shells look like the celebration you had the first time your kid went on a ‘grown up’ potty…disclosure – mine did it faster than yours. Just sayin’ they’re gonna be REALLY successful.

I walk/ride/jog around my glorious, war/famine/plague free town and all I see are miserable sods. Why? B/c you’re trying to control things you can’t – any won’t (ouch…yes, I’ll give a hug for that)…Start with whats in your own head….make space!

I vote for a ‘Be Human’ day. Where all’y’all shut the F up, unplug for the day and reflect on what and where you are..

But giving up Youtube? Horror!

Og

#22 Observer on 06.27.22 at 5:02 pm

” Moreover, real estate will suffer more declines, but losing 50% of its value – with average properties across Canada going from $800,000 down to $400,000 – ain’t in the cards. ”

So what would be a more realistic decline? 25%?

#23 Quintilian on 06.27.22 at 5:03 pm

Just my daily badly needed carnivalesque contribution:

“So, if you borrowed too deeply and spent too much, you may be hurting. That was a choice. Live with it.”

Maybe these people would have been better off today if they had considered the possibility that we bears were correct?

#24 1255 on 06.27.22 at 5:05 pm

It is different this time. There’s never been an EVERYTHING bubble like today!

Rates have never been so low – the Fed has never added $9 trillion to its balance sheet.

It is unprecedented.

So was WW2. – Garth

#25 Dave on 06.27.22 at 5:11 pm

House prices have barely budged in many parts of Vancouver Island, despite higher rates. Maybe things are different out West?

#26 North snore on 06.27.22 at 5:18 pm

#21 ogdoad

Great post!

#27 Cars on 06.27.22 at 5:20 pm

#125 Faron

That’s the scam Faron, ASSOCIATION!

Put enough separation between the product and consequences and you’re golden.

No one accuses some guy in a V8 truck of using more air and emitting more pollution than the guy in a 4-cyl econobox on his daily commute. But it’s a fact.

#28 Faron on 06.27.22 at 5:20 pm

#14 Sail Away on 06.27.22 at 4:32 pm

#110 crowdedelevatorfartz on 06.27.22 at 12:27 pm
@#109 Sail Away

will choose to be offended by it

It’s not “offense” that’s the problem. The first amendment also protects freedom of religion. Dragging others through your Christian nonsense is a violation not simply “offensive”. Think it through.

Think of it this way. If said coach was a practicing satanist, by your logic, he should be allowed to keep kids huddled around for some satan worshiping after the games and people who complained should stop being so offended. I can assure you that, were that the cast, a different decision would have been made. I don’t think you can see this as the case because you seem to be a bible thumper so your worldview is so skewed.

The reality is that when a kid signs up for the football team it shouldn’t be packaged with a dash of Christian drivel.It should be packaged with some football and some exercise and some teamwork and competition. Asking non-Christians to be associated with a specific religion is a violation of their rights to free speech and religious practice.

#29 T-Rev on 06.27.22 at 5:23 pm

I think it’s worth noting that a person (individual) can change (rarely and with great difficulty usually borne out of extreme pain), but I agree that no, people (in the sum whole) cannot, and likely have not changed significantly for some 70,000 years since the cognitive revolution, and most certainly have not in the last 5,000. Different environments, different stimuli, but same inputs=same outputs.

#30 Faron on 06.27.22 at 5:23 pm

#20 Bitcoin Bro on 06.27.22 at 4:46 pm

Yeah, but you think bitcoin is worth more than $0. Sooo, we kinda have to discount your economic viewpoints by, roughly, 99.9999%.

#31 J.M.Keynes on 06.27.22 at 5:30 pm

#111 Quintilian on 06.27.22 at 12:29 pm
#98 J.M.Keynes on 06.27.22 at 10:47 am
“What new level of economic theory have I missed where you can bring down inflation with lending rates below the inflation rate?”

It’s called Politics.

It is a realm beyond the understanding of science or logic.

Within that dimension, all is possible.
The laws of Physics and Economics can be suspended for some time.

Notice “suspended for some time”.
But not indefinitely.

Tick Tock, Tick Tock
————————————————————–

My point exactly. The inflation genie is not going to be put back into the bottle with lending rates well below the inflation rate…

#32 Stone on 06.27.22 at 5:31 pm

#5 rampant inflation on 06.27.22 at 4:05 pm
the risk reward for equities will look better at the covid lows. next year. i’m sure that’s what Pennock will say then too.

when it’s clear we have a bear market, you don’t stand in the way and watch your profits disappear. get out until it’s over. save yourself some pain. if you can’t figure it out, hire someone that can. it’s not rocket science.

———

Stay invested. Stay Balanced. Stay Diversified. Rebalance as required. And collect your juicy divvies in the meantime.

Everyone else trying or claiming to do otherwise is a FOOL suffering from FOMO and TINA.

#33 Shawn on 06.27.22 at 5:37 pm

YES, indeed oil is our biggest export!

“Oil is over a hundred bucks. It’s our biggest export.”

Yes it is.

In fact Energy (oil and gas and I suppose a bit of electricity) is Canada’s biggest NET export by a factor of 5! A factor of 5!!!

This is using annualized Q1 2022 data. Energy (mostly oil) is what is bringing home the bacon to this country at this time. It’s what pays for much of the imports. A country that imports tons of stuff needs to export something, or else it soon can’t afford those imports.

https://www.investorsfriend.com/canadian-GDP-canadian-imports-and-exports/

#34 Juste pour rire... on 06.27.22 at 5:37 pm

Moreover, real estate will suffer more declines, but losing 50% of its value – with average properties across Canada going from $800,000 down to $400,000 – ain’t in the cards. Nor are 10% mortgages or 8% GICs. Not never. But not this time.

You know Garth, you’ve been wrong about house price declines since the blog started really.

The darn things have been supported by low rates by CBs, and outside of few little pauses, the reality is up up and away. If you didn’t sell on the lows, you’re way ahead today.

As a result, not sure your prediction here is accurate. The situation on Canadian housing is way out whack. When Hamilton and Mississauga are on the list of most expensive cities in North America along with Toronto, Vancouver and New York City, you know well there is a problem. A big one, and quite localized.

#35 Don Guillermo on 06.27.22 at 5:39 pm

#7 Faron on 06.27.22 at 4:09 pm
#128 Don Guillermo on 06.27.22 at 3:25 pm

@@@@@@@@
False, no matter what your mind blowing reports probably conclude.

#36 Søren Angst on 06.27.22 at 5:48 pm

Well said Garth.

What happens, happens. History says one way or the other we shall get thru it.

And some will fall to the wayside economically. In many cases, makers of their own destiny.

———————-

#6 North snore

Render unto Caesar the things that are Caesar’s, and unto Canada the things that are Canada’s.
[on source income]

Gov pension money taxed by one cannot be taxed by the other. Reciprocal tax agreement. Online. Find it. Read it like I did. Or WTF, here you go…

https://www.agenziaentrate.gov.it/portale/web/english/nse/individuals/double-taxation-relief/conventions-for-the-avoidance-of-double-taxation

https://www.treaty-accord.gc.ca/text-texte.aspx?id=104864

https://www.treaty-accord.gc.ca/text-texte.aspx?id=102398

Then read this:

https://www.canada.ca/en/revenue-agency/services/forms-publications/publications/t4058/non-residents-income-tax.html#P138_13640

I’ve kept almost all my cash in Canada save money for utilities and internet that you need an Italian bank account to get.

Easy for me as a dual citizen. On a Visa you are on your own.

I would go visit your local Italian Consulate (like I did) before thinking about living in Italia as a resident. They will answer your questions. Probably take a couple of visits. Prepare before visiting them.

—————

Ignore Ex-pat sites on the Internet. Clear to me none of them actually live in Italia as a Resident. Most of the info they give is bogus. They avoid taxation talk and from what I read they do say they are clueless or do not pay taxes that they should.

#37 Prince Polo on 06.27.22 at 5:51 pm

Most of the places listed here https://www.greaterfool.ca/2022/06/15/incoming-2/
have an average price far exceeding $800K.

What’s a realistic decline to bring these home values back in line with local incomes? Perhaps 40-50%?

#38 Shawn on 06.27.22 at 5:52 pm

#3 JacqueShellacque on 06.27.22 at 3:54 pm

Ignores path dependence, Garth. Arithmetic averages are misleading because devestation like 1987 just ‘brings down the average’. But nobody gets the average, each individual gets their path. And if the path includes a 22% drawdown shortly before they need the money, it’s crushing:

***************************
Jacque, I think you are off base here. The U.S. markets were up bigly in 1987 before the crash that’s most of the reason it was still up by year end.

You are right if someone put their whole portfolio in just before the October 1987 crash and then needed it all out the next week, that would be crushing.

If they were dumb enough to “pull” all their money out of the market right after the crash that was also pretty crushing. Though even there they still would not have been down that much versus the start of the year.

Anyone with long-term money in the market simply rode a bubble up and then down during 1987 and ended the year up a bit and then kept on going up in the years ahead. A retiree would not have taken much out for monthly spending just after the crash and Garth explained markets rose bigly in 1988 and 1989.

There is some truth to path dependency that you mention. But can you suggest a better approach to take with an existing large retirement portfolio the day after that crash than doing nothing?

#39 mark on 06.27.22 at 5:55 pm

garth serious question – much tech has dropped below reasonable levels, including strong companies like PayPal etc. I’m sure killer deals are forming elsewhere, including diversified ETFs. at what point would you borrow to invest, I.e. deploy the line of credit at 6% interest to pick up some deals? if not, why not?

#40 Søren Angst on 06.27.22 at 6:00 pm

#6 North snore

Forgot.

2 Faves you will like:

1. Income Tax and Benefit Return for Non-Residents
and Deemed Residents of Canada tax form Step 5 DOES NOT INCLUDE THIS:

Provincial Tax

Considering I consume no resources from the Provinces living in Italia, fitting I say.

2. Dividend tax removed at source (WebBroker does that for me) and after that NO NEED TO REPORT them on your tax form. Capital Gains you have to calc (or losses).

They track World Income, Canada and the Italians, so you are not fooling anyone with trying to use the 2 of them for obvious tax shenanigans.

World Income also used to determine how much of your OAS, if you are eligible, they will whittle down to near nothingness (as in my case).

#41 Shawn on 06.27.22 at 6:03 pm

Just Pour Rire said:

Today you borrow $1.6m and pay $1.2M in interest over 25 years with the lovely low rates, if you’re lucky.

********************************
That is so last year. Now that $1.6 million house will be $1 million.

No one is getting $1.6 million mortgages unless they have a huge down payment and are very wealthy.

Surely mortgages for all but the upper end of the 1% top out at about $800k?

And yeah you pay a lot of interest to the bank at 5% plus.

If you don’t like it, buy bank shares. Crying usury is juvenile and uneducated in my opinion.

#42 NOSTRADAMUS on 06.27.22 at 6:06 pm

AM I THE ONLY ONE TAKING THE HIT?
Both the stock and real estate markets have been punctured by the thin blades of truth. They are fatally wounded but nobody dares notice. The wounds are barely visible, but the internal damage is mortal. The markets are bleeding out but can’t possibly die, can they? Yes they can and yes they will. Truth is fatal to fraud and the truth has escaped and is now free.
New point. Real estate values are in free fall and reportedly down over 30% over the past 12 weeks.
Question, friendly realtor, are you reducing your commission by 30 %, or am I the only one taking the hit? MMMM… I didn’t think so. I am beginning to feel and look like a wizened old sea captain squinting dispassionately at one more sunset with no surprises to offer. You can call me a dreamer, but I’m not the only one.

#43 Millennial 1%er on 06.27.22 at 6:16 pm

Thanks for this awesome post garth. Do you mind writing an article about logs/exponents, and why log graphs are more reasonable to observe, especially over long timeframes? The distortion of compounding makes drawdowns seem more severe

#44 Søren Angst on 06.27.22 at 6:26 pm

#6 North snore

Forgot. Forgot.

DO NOT MOVE YOUR FURNITURE etc. to Italia.

Besides it costing a fortune to ship from Canada to Venezia (in my case on to Pordenone from there) the Italians will tax the furniture, cutlery, ironing boards, curling irons, you name it…

At least 20%. Seen as an import from Canada.

I kid you not.

If you have treasured appliances that you cannot absolutely part with (an heirloom of sorts), ensure they are dual voltage and power.

Canada operates on a 120V supply voltage and 60Hz.
Italy operates on a 230V supply voltage and 50Hz.

Look at your appliance motor area and it must show 120V/60Hz and 230V/50Hz. Here I am talking about stoves, refrigerators, small appliances that can consume a lot of power like an all singing, all dancing, Cuisinart Food Processor. *

If it does not, DO NOT bother with converters, they are larger than the appliance typically (the ones that actually function).

I sold everything off in Canada before leaving for Italia for good, save my Computers which had dual power sources, just needed to change the power cords on eac when I got here, all of €5 to do (flew 1st class and they were in my luggage, including the screens – Hvy Duty Duffle Bags and God Bless Canada and Hockey Bags).

—————–

* For you the “seasoned” travellers with your conscenti advice, my advice to you is:

your hair blower is not a large consumer of power and your little adapter will fry in time with a high power appliance attached to it. But hey, give it a whirl with the Cuisinart for the heck of it in Italia. Once you see smoke, you will learn.

#45 Faron on 06.27.22 at 6:27 pm

#35 Don Guillermo on 06.27.22 at 5:39 pm

#7 Faron on 06.27.22 at 4:09 pm
#128 Don Guillermo on 06.27.22 at 3:25 pm

@@@@@@@@
False

LOL. Sorry pal. You haven’t the slightest clue.

#46 North snore on 06.27.22 at 6:28 pm

#36 Søren Angst

Hey the consulates are still a mess because of covid. Such a backlog. Almost everything I see on the internet looks like trash, or American and so I can’t relate.

I am a dual citizen like yourself and will be moving in August. I am not asking questions to avoid taxes, I’m asking because I don’t want to get into any trouble with one or the other

One last question, tfsa account, do you still have one? From my understanding it seems like europe doesn’t recognize this as a retirement account. That’s a big worry of mine.

Thanks for all ur info so far. I’m sure I might bug u later on again

#47 Faron on 06.27.22 at 6:30 pm

#27 Cars on 06.27.22 at 5:20 pm

#125 Faron

That’s the scam Faron, ASSOCIATION!

No one accuses some guy in a V8 truck of using more air and emitting more pollution than the guy in a 4-cyl econobox on his daily commute. But it’s a fact.

Yep. It’s the problem of non-point pollution. It’s also true that those 2x emissions have a strong negative impact on the health of people globally, including those who never had a chance to even drive a car let alone own one.

#48 Ponzius Pilatus on 06.27.22 at 6:31 pm

#27 Cars
No one accuses some guy in a V8 truck of using more air and emitting more pollution than the guy in a 4-cyl econobox on his daily commute. But it’s a fact.
————————————
No one?
I do.
And, using more parking space, more noise pollution, more tail gaiting.
Time to tax them more, to reflect the true cost to society and environment.

#49 Poorgirl on 06.27.22 at 6:42 pm

#28 – Faron: You do realize that Garth was and/or is a practicing Christian, right? Comments a tad on the offensive side, no?

#50 Warren-the-lagging_indicator on 06.27.22 at 6:45 pm

Well they call the damn thing a reaction function for christ’s sake, so no wonder they are always behind the curve; it is built in, right into the implementation. It’s a feature I know.

#51 Søren Angst on 06.27.22 at 6:46 pm

💗 G7.

Threatening a consumer cartel max oil price for Russia.

My oil stuff +2% to +3% for the day.

yeah oil.
yeah G7.

And TWTR still an Albatross -0.56%.

#52 Faron on 06.27.22 at 6:47 pm

Dr. V and others who were talking about covered call ETFs. Never a bad idea to check the skew of the options chain to see when is a good time to write covered calls or to sell calls to fund downside puts. Skew in SPX is very low at the moment implying low prices for puts and relatively high prices for calls. This should help covered call strategies perform better than in high skew environments.

#53 millmech on 06.27.22 at 6:48 pm

#41 Shawn
Quite a few people at my work are carrying 800k+ mortgages and are uptight now as the rates keep heading up.
I do not believe machinists, electricians and machine operators are the 1%, trades do make just over $50/hr so if wife has high paying job(nurse,teacher,trades) and you can get 4-5times income in a mortgage it is not hard to get a seven figure mortgage at sub 2% rates.
($1,000,000 at 1.5%@ 25 year is $4k/mth, doable with DINK income).
Now add in a rental suite or two and that gets factored in as income, I believe 50% of rental income can be used in income /debt service calculations and you can easily see how people can get way over their heads in debt.
I bet over half the people in my plant are now in your 1%.

#54 Bitcoin Bro on 06.27.22 at 6:50 pm

Faron on 06.27.22 at 5:23 pm

This is a comments section on the internet friend. You shouldn’t take any of it seriously.

I will say though if you apply your dated 2013-era stance on Bitcoin to serious economic minds then you’d be missing out on insight from the likes of Ray Dalio, Stanley Druckenmiller, Paul Tudor Jones, and Bill Gross. Your loss, I guess.

#55 Dragonfly58 on 06.27.22 at 6:51 pm

Great advice for those in a position to use it. People who are relatively young and actually have some spare cash after living . housing , and family expenses are paid for.
As for the rest of us / most of us, over 60, or younger and below say $75,000 / year I guess we should just give up hope now and get it over with.
Even with very sound household money management / frugal ways, few younger famillys are going to be in a position to have a significant nest egg over time.
I put away $50.00 / month for many, many years , unfortunately in nice lady at the bank stuff. Didn’t know better until I started reading Garth’s site. Many months when I was young that $50.00 was dammed hard to spare, impacted my quality of life. And for what ? 4 1/2 decades later it is in real terms diddley , and still taxable if I cash it in , RRSP’s. Makes me wonder why I didn’t just spend it when it had some buying power. Like I have mentioned before , thank’s to Garth I could now invest in a way that will probably over time do reasonably well. But the tying up of the capital required would make a serious dent in my already frugal life, and any worthwhile returns will most likely be at least a decade in the future. I will be old enough by then that there is a good chance that it really won’t matter how much wealth I have set aside.
Is there a way of moving RRSP’s to a cash free savings acount without triggering a substantial tax cost ? It’s only about $30,000.00 but it is making almost nothing where it is.

#56 Søren Angst on 06.27.22 at 7:02 pm

#25 Dave

It’s them Orca’s and clear cut logging you see on the way to the West Coast Trail that lets Victoria defy gravity…or not.

View historical, corrected for inflation, gravity defying charts (incl. mortgage rates vs. price):

https://househuntvictoria.ca/2016/03/17/a-brief-history-of-prices/

https://househuntvictoria.ca/2015/09/04/housing-in-the-80s-and-90s/

So. What do you think will happen as rates rise to Victoria prices?

It’s only been a few months of slightly higher rates there Mr./Ms. Immediate Gratification.

Give it some time. Then get back to us.

#57 Mehling on 06.27.22 at 7:06 pm

Bidding wars – renters – WSJ:

https://www.wsj.com/articles/bidding-wars-overheated-the-home-buyer-market-now-theyre-coming-for-renters-11656322200?mod=mhp

#58 Ed on 06.27.22 at 7:07 pm

I’m up for “Human Being ” month…good post Ogdad

#59 ogdoad on 06.27.22 at 7:07 pm

#14 Sail Away on 06.27.22 at 4:32 pm

That’s exactly the point of free speech: sometimes others will choose to be offended by it. And that’s exactly why it is a right, not a subjective privilege.

Someone exercising free speech is subject to the free speech of others in reaction. Also protected.

But. Not. Retribution.

This is fundamental. Think it through.

:):):):):):):):):):):)

SA, you must be the life of the party…

Og

#60 Dõn Ånácönda on 06.27.22 at 7:31 pm

Hi Garth thanks for the free wisdom. Can you please do a post on when is a good time to buy bonds? I’m currently weighted heavily towards equity ETFs because I’m young and they seem to make more sense.

#61 Equality I hope? on 06.27.22 at 7:42 pm

#28 Faron on 06.27.22 at 5:20 pm
#14 Sail Away on 06.27.22 at 4:32 pm

#110 crowdedelevatorfartz on 06.27.22 at 12:27 pm
@#109 Sail Away

will choose to be offended by it

It’s not “offense” that’s the problem. The first amendment also protects freedom of religion. Dragging others through your Christian nonsense is a violation not simply “offensive”. Think it through.

Think of it this way. If said coach was a practicing satanist, by your logic, he should be allowed to keep kids huddled around for some satan worshiping after the games and people who complained should stop being so offended. I can assure you that, were that the cast, a different decision would have been made. I don’t think you can see this as the case because you seem to be a bible thumper so your worldview is so skewed.

The reality is that when a kid signs up for the football team it shouldn’t be packaged with a dash of Christian drivel.It should be packaged with some football and some exercise and some teamwork and competition. Asking non-Christians to be associated with a specific religion is a violation of their rights to free speech and religious practice.

===========================================

I agree. Just like asking non-Indigenous to submit to the endless pontifications with smudges and other ancient religious superstitious nonsense now present at every conceivable event in your home burb and across Canada.

It has to stop.

It’s all nonsense, Islam, Judaism, all the religions. Funny how emboldened you are to dismiss the “drivel” of one and not the whole. Wonder why.

#doublestandards

#62 Faron on 06.27.22 at 7:45 pm

#49 Poorgirl on 06.27.22 at 6:42 pm

The drivel comes in when practicing Christian’s can’t identify the line between their belief systems and logic; between rules/law and ideology. i.e. the brand of Christianity Sail Away seems fond of. I suspect that Garth knows the boundary between his personal religious views and those of others. I have Christian leanings and respect people’s religious choices but will not tolerate the imposition of those choices on others nor should anyone. The implication is that public spaces should be religiously neutral especially in a multicultural society like Canada’s.

#63 PeterfromCalgary on 06.27.22 at 8:12 pm

Inflation is a risk to the economy and social stability. However, central banks with the exception of Turkey’s central bank know how to deal with this.

FYI: Turkeys President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan thinks high interest rates are inflationary and that country is suffering 73% inflation as a result. Nominal interest is only 14%. So the average Turk is losing around 60% of purchasing power on their savings per year. Yikes!

#64 Ustabe on 06.27.22 at 8:20 pm

#62 Faron on 06.27.22 at 7:45 pm

#49 Poorgirl on 06.27.22 at 6:42 pm

Matthew 6:5-15

#65 Nesty on 06.27.22 at 8:30 pm

“So was WW2. – Garth”

WW2 can easily win an “It is different this time.” in my book. Barring the Black Death nothing has killed more humans on earth.

On the financial side WW2 was a wealth destroyer for most people even on the winning side. I say most because those with gold and equities in neutral countries did ok.

#66 In Garth not God we Trust on 06.27.22 at 8:57 pm

#49 Poorgirl on 06.27.22 at 6:42 pm
#28 – Faron: You do realize that Garth was and/or is a practicing Christian, right? Comments a tad on the offensive side, no?
—————————————————————-
Garth is more than your everyday run-of-the-mill Christian. He is the lone voice of financial reason crying out in the financial wilderness, preparing the way for those who want to enter financial heaven. Future generations will say of Saint Garth, “it is hard to believe that such a man walked the earth.”

That made even me nauseous. – Garth

#67 Ponzius Pilatus on 06.27.22 at 9:04 pm

#64 Ustabe on 06.27.22 at 8:20 pm
#62 Faron on 06.27.22 at 7:45 pm

#49 Poorgirl on 06.27.22 at 6:42 pm

Matthew 6:5-15
—————————
I’m pretty sure, there are some other chapters in the Bible that say the opposite.
I just don’t have the time or inclination to look for it.

#68 Ponzius Pilatus on 06.27.22 at 9:14 pm

Inflation news:
“Average” cost of weddings have gone up by about 30%.
Now around 65,000.
CRAZY.

#69 Ohm on 06.27.22 at 9:15 pm

As you said Garth it is the people with large debt that need to worry and unfortunately there are many of them..
C’est la vie!!

#70 Hookshot on 06.27.22 at 9:19 pm

25 Dave on 06.27.22 at 5:11 pm
House prices have barely budged in many parts of Vancouver Island, despite higher rates. Maybe things are different out West?
……
I am in the market in the Comox Valley so follow it quite closely. One house that I may be interested in has dropped from $1 500 000 to $1 250 000 in a month. I would think that qualifies as more than “barely budged”. Still more than I am willing to pay. Others are sitting on the market for a long time. Now, Realtors are still setting ridiculous opening prices as they are living in a greedy dreamworld of the past and suggesting a high price to the seller, often gets them the listing. Then reality sets in!

#71 Ohm on 06.27.22 at 9:27 pm

Kinda funny where no where in the article was talk of record inflation, record high price for gas. People giving up food to heat the family during winter season, high phone and internet prices, insurance (if one can get it) has risen by how much?? Never mind trying to buy a steak or fresh vegetables; never mind eggs, a loaf of bread etc., much more on the horizon then these so called analyst predict, the rest of us know what is coming…

#72 Garrick on 06.27.22 at 9:31 pm

Please God, cut the power to Faron’s computer.

#73 april on 06.27.22 at 9:31 pm

#25 – their not … only when you talk to a realtor.

#74 Juste pour rire... on 06.27.22 at 9:49 pm

#69 Ohm on 06.27.22 at 9:15 pm
As you said Garth it is the people with large debt that need to worry and unfortunately there are many of them..
C’est la vie!!

—-

That is why IT IS DIFFERENT THIS TIME!

The debt is EPIC!

Personal.
Mortgage.
Municipal.
Provincial.
Federal.

EPIC!

No one has answers for this debt.

#75 Scooby Snacks on 06.27.22 at 9:56 pm

@ #55 Dragonfly58
I too put money into an RRSP when I couldn’t afford it. I was young and stupid, poor and hungry but you’re “supposed to” contribute to a RRSP, reap the tax benefits and watch your investment grow with these magical mutual funds, right? I was so hellbent on being financially responsible that watched Suze Orman every chance I got lol. I wanted to learn the pathway to wealth and not end up like my financially illiterate parents.
Well, fast forward 20+ years, I’m 42 now and have RRSP’s that I will not need by retirement age. So I’m toying with the idea of converting to a RRIF as I have no intention of contributing to my RRSP ever again. The funds taken out of a RRSP/RRIF get added to income, and if I take out a lump sum, I get hit with withholding tax that varies depending on the amount withdrawn. Here’s my potential plan…
-Convert RRSP to RRIF to slowly trickle the money out of the RRSP. (There is a formula to figure out how much you will receive based on age and RRSP value). It will take a loooong time to trickle out all the funds so…
-Also withdraw increments of $5000 annually, to pay the lowest possible withholding tax rate (10%). So $4500 after withholding tax.
-Add those funds to my kids RESP to enjoy the government top up or to my TFSA investment account, or ya know, Maui :)

#76 Lisa on 06.27.22 at 9:56 pm

Louie’s expression at the stock market! Many of us two-legged thinking same, Louie. Hang in there.

#77 crowdedelevatorfartz on 06.27.22 at 9:57 pm

@#49 poorgirl
“Comments a tad on the offensive side, no?”
+++
Most comments offend someone.
Take my name for instance.

#78 crowdedelevatorfartz on 06.27.22 at 10:04 pm

@#61 Equality
“I agree. Just like asking non-Indigenous to submit to the endless pontifications with smudges and other ancient religious superstitious nonsense now present at every conceivable event in your home burb and across Canada.

It has to stop.

It’s all nonsense, Islam, Judaism, all the religions.
+++

Total agreement on everything stated.
Lets start a gofundme page for any politician that will support an agnostic party that doesn’t kowtow to any religion , faith, race, sexual orientation, etc etc etc.
Year Zero
We’ll call it the Pol Free Pot Party.

#79 Don Guillermo on 06.27.22 at 10:06 pm

#72 Garrick on 06.27.22 at 9:31 pm
Please God, cut the power to Faron’s computer.
########
Hahaha LOL, he is very cluefull. Just ask him.

#80 cramar on 06.27.22 at 10:12 pm

58% of Americans (150 million) are now living paycheck to paycheck, including 30% of those earning $250,000 or more…

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/06/27/more-than-half-of-americans-live-paycheck-to-paycheck-amid-inflation.html

WOW!

#81 crowdedelevatorfartz on 06.27.22 at 10:13 pm

@#117 Ponzie’s Prayers
“And by the way, this is a financial blog.
(Sarcasm off).”
+++
Very true, my little Austrian Gnome.
Hence my delayed response.
I was out working.
Making money.
Ironically enough…. in Nanaimo today. Beautiful weather and a nice cool breeze.
But alas. I’m back in Burnaby.
The suburbs.
Hot . Dirty. Sticky. Traffic congested Lower Brain land.

#82 PBrasseur on 06.27.22 at 10:31 pm

The modern welfare state is unsustainable, by now this should be obvious to anyone who cares to look, stimulus no longer possible because at this point it yields inflation, but no problem, nothing to see here, just keep walking….

Yeah right!

#83 Ponzius Pilatus on 06.27.22 at 10:42 pm

#81 crowdedelevatorfartz on 06.27.22 at 10:13 pm
@#117 Ponzie’s Prayers
“And by the way, this is a financial blog.
(Sarcasm off).”
+++
Very true, my little Austrian Gnome.
Hence my delayed response.
I was out working.
Making money.
Ironically enough…. in Nanaimo today. Beautiful weather and a nice cool breeze.
But alas. I’m back in Burnaby.
The suburbs.
Hot . Dirty. Sticky. Traffic congested Lower Brain land.
———————
Working your butt off, so you can pay your employees a paltry bonus. Pathetic.
And hating the Lower Rainland.
Google Masochist.

#84 Ponzius Pilatus on 06.27.22 at 10:47 pm

#77 crowdedelevatorfartz on 06.27.22 at 9:57 pm
@#49 poorgirl
“Comments a tad on the offensive side, no?”
+++
Most comments offend someone.
Take my name for instance.
———————
Your handle is not offensive.
Just stupid.
Why don’t you call yourself “Overpaid Plummer”.

#85 Sail Away on 06.27.22 at 11:03 pm

#81 crowdedelevatorfartz on 06.27.22 at 10:13 pm

I was out working.
Making money.
Ironically enough…. in Nanaimo today. Beautiful weather and a nice cool breeze.

——–

Haha. Give me a call next time and lunch will be my treat at the best place.

#86 Juste pour rire... on 06.27.22 at 11:21 pm

#80 cramar on 06.27.22 at 10:12 pm
58% of Americans (150 million) are now living paycheck to paycheck, including 30% of those earning $250,000 or more…

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/06/27/more-than-half-of-americans-live-paycheck-to-paycheck-amid-inflation.html

WOW!

>>>Debt. That’s why IT IS different this time.

#87 NOT MY KID on 06.27.22 at 11:22 pm

#14 Sail Away on 06.27.22 at 4:32 pm
#110 crowdedelevatorfartz on 06.27.22 at 12:27 pm
@#109 Sail Away

“Religion or non-religion are both equally protected.”

——–

The Supreme court case in question ruled in favor of a High School Coach who was repeatedly asked by school officials not to hold prayer sessions on the field immediately after the game. It offended some of the non religious students and parents attending the games.

He refused to stop his prayers and was fired.
He now gets to sue for wrongful dismissal.

——–

That’s exactly the point of free speech: sometimes others will choose to be offended by it. And that’s exactly why it is a right, not a subjective privilege.

Someone exercising free speech is subject to the free speech of others in reaction. Also protected.

But. Not. Retribution.

This is fundamental. Think it through.
———————————
Give me a break! That is imposing your BELIEFS on others. I don’t sign up my kid for some religious class!!

IF I wanted my kid to believe in some religion I would go to church!!

YOU want FREE speech, stand on a soap box, cause you don’t see construction supervisor imposing workers by doing the load’s prayer OR the opening of retail stores doing the load’s prayer…but grab the kids, that’s ok, impose that beliefs on them. GET them while they are young… this stuff doesn’t wash in the adult world so the teacher can go to church and preach to a choir or on a city center soap box. Totally 100% no place in sports, jobs, schools or anything other than your own CHURCH.

Amen!

#88 Satori on 06.27.22 at 11:27 pm

#28 Faron on 06.27.22 at 5:20 pm
#14 Sail Away on 06.27.22 at 4:32 pm

#110 crowdedelevatorfartz on 06.27.22 at 12:27 pm
@#109 Sail Away

will choose to be offended by it

It’s not “offense” that’s the problem. The first amendment also protects freedom of religion. Dragging others through your Christian nonsense is a violation not simply “offensive”. Think it through.

Think of it this way. If said coach was a practicing satanist, by your logic, he should be allowed to keep kids huddled around for some satan worshiping after the games and people who complained should stop being so offended. I can assure you that, were that the cast, a different decision would have been made. I don’t think you can see this as the case because you seem to be a bible thumper so your worldview is so skewed.

The reality is that when a kid signs up for the football team it shouldn’t be packaged with a dash of Christian drivel.It should be packaged with some football and some exercise and some teamwork and competition. Asking non-Christians to be associated with a specific religion is a violation of their rights to free speech and religious practice.

——————-
Bravo! and well said!!

#89 Philco on 06.27.22 at 11:30 pm

There has NEVER been a time when so many live on the margin with so much easy credit. That creates unpredictable outcomes in even minor storms…
FOOLISH indeed.

#90 Philco on 06.27.22 at 11:33 pm

#79 Don Guillermo on 06.27.22 at 10:06 pm
#72 Garrick on 06.27.22 at 9:31 pm
Please God, cut the power to Faron’s computer.
########
Hahaha LOL, he is very cluefull. Just ask him.
=======================
LOL guys thick as a brick just like our leader T2.
You have to pop all 4 tires to stoppem from showing up.

#91 Jane24 on 06.27.22 at 11:37 pm

The problem for most of my Canadian friends and relatives seems to be that although jobs are plentiful in Canada right now, these jobs just don’t pay enough to live on. Canada has very expensive houses and a very very expensive cost of living. Either wages need to go up there to $40 an hour, or those house prices need to come down pretty sharpish. I believe this is happening. That 25% reduction that Garth talks about has happened in a matter of weeks due to the internet. Price movements that took months in 1989 will take weeks in 2022. Housing will keep dropping till it finds buyers.

My Canadian nieces and nephews live with their parents or in old, small flats and seem to have zero fun money. The young people in Basilicata, Italy where we have a second home have a much better life. Housing is cheap so they get an apartment from their parents when they marry and said parents do any childcare. Life without rent or a mortgage is cheap so most of their income is disposable. Most young mothers do not work but make homes instead. On the weekend the Italian young are clothes shopping in Matera and eating out. They are out in the bars and coffee shops with their babies every evening. Compared to the kids I know in Canada, they have a great life.

#92 Satori on 06.27.22 at 11:43 pm

If one could reason with religious people, there would be no religious people.

As Mark Twain said: Religion was invented when the first conman, met the first fool.

#93 Jane24 on 06.27.22 at 11:43 pm

Another thing I note about life in southern Italy is that I have never seen a card used in a supermarket, bar or restaurant. It is always cash. I have seen cards used in clothes shops but never in the fab local market where you find the latest Milan clothing designs that have sadly fallen off a truck! Keeps life simple I guess.

#94 Gripper on 06.27.22 at 11:55 pm

Sentiment selling is a gift to dividend seeking investors. Thx to the panic, prices may have gone down but yields are up. This creates increased cash flow which adds more buying stocks, which adds to income. I know, funny right? Your headline number goes down but at the same time your income is going up, crazy!! This is a cash flow perpetual motion machine.

This is all based on fundamental analytics on companies with supportive balance sheets and indicate margin expansion. I’m not even trying here, it’s like shooting fish in a barrel. Look, I’ve got idiots calling me saying we’re going straight to hell, they’re selling because of a 100 year summer in Spain, a decision about abortion, killer whales, we’ll run out of oil next year, Trudeaus latest photo op. Bottom line? Stick to fundamentals, let the idiots run free in the mall, getting rich isn’t that hard. We’ll get past Trudeau, climate idiocy, peak oil, Putin’s nipples, all in good time. Nothings different this time.

#95 bdwy on 06.27.22 at 11:57 pm

The funds taken out of a RRSP/RRIF get added to income, and if I take out a lump sum, I get hit with withholding tax that varies depending on the amount withdrawn.

yes

-Also withdraw increments of $5000 annually, to pay the lowest possible withholding tax rate (10%). So $4500 after withholding tax.

—————
i was thinking this way too but….

witholding tax 10-20 or 25 or whatever is only a ‘placeholder’ . at tax time you get all , some or none back depending on total taxable income.

we need to take out a lot as early retired and not much other income. was thinking of 5k at a time – but the hassle is not worth it. prob will take out a years worth 70k or so at end of december pay the big tax and get it back shortly after at tax time. plan to spend all the rrsp before 70 for max gov cheese in wrinkly years. no pension , we will be destitute!

#96 tc-contra on 06.28.22 at 12:06 am

#65 Nesty on 06.27.22 at 8:30 pm

“So was WW2. – Garth”

WW2 can easily win an “It is different this time.” in my book. Barring the Black Death nothing has killed more humans on earth.
….
=============================

ummm…communism?

#97 Sail Away on 06.28.22 at 12:40 am

“….with two German shepherds”

———

Suggest trying Austrian shepherds. They’re sort of motley looking, with a bit of an off-putting demeanour, but give them appropriate footwear and a rutabaga a week, and they will tend your flock like nobody’s business.

Neither rain, nor snow, nor death of night, can keep them from their duty.

#98 the Jaguar on 06.28.22 at 1:31 am

Sail Away, amigo a mi…

Here is my Tesla report. Just for you.

I liked the wood strip across the dash, the new car smell, and the quiet. I am always big on ‘quiet’. The seats offered great support and comfort.

The ‘see through roof’, voice command operation, and large screen displaying numerous external and internal measurements and influences were interesting as well, and I even managed to withhold comments from the little voice in my head that was saying ” Don’t look at the screen, keep your eyes on the damn road!” When the person behind the wheel is your friend, you just want to be happy for him and support his purchase decision.

My question about who or how the car would be repaired in the event of an accident didn’t produce a steady reassuring response. While the interior was minimalist (my preference in all things), it didn’t take my breath away from a design perspective, nor could it be labelled ‘luxurious”. I think it would be fair to say the same about the exterior.

If I had the opportunity to own any car on the market with no consideration to price, I guess I might choose the Audi 3 Hatchback. Hatchbacks are so darned practical. Maybe that’s why pragmatic people are attracted to them. You can stuff all sorts of things purchased from IKEA in a hatchback. I’m just not used to luxury.
So, no Tesla for me, though I did have the theme song from ‘The Jetsons’ running through my mind as we sped towards YVR……..

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tTq6Tofmo7E

#99 Dr V on 06.28.22 at 2:10 am

55 Dragonfly58

“Is there a way of moving RRSP’s to a cash free savings account without triggering a substantial tax cost ?”
——————————————————–

Hi Dragonfly. I dont think there is any magic bullet for
this problem. Years ago my accountant told me not to put any more in the RRSPs unless he approved it. When I started with my current advisor, she said “dont put any more into your RRSPs without checking with your accountant” so I guess we were doing it right.

Just use all the tricks legally available which include pension income splitting and marginal tax rates. In BC we apparently have this funny tax rate where the first $20k is barely taxed, but they make up for that in the
next $15k, then tax actually drops a little for the next $15k (total $50k). Any non-reg dividend or cap gains
above that still receive great tax treatment but marginal rate for income jumps.

If you can manage to split perfectly with your spouse, that’s $100k plus any non-reg divvies or cap gains. And of course TFSA does not enter into the equation. If you can include the RRIF in that $50k, and use it to top up the TFSA, that is about the best you can do.

https://www.ey.com/en_ca/tax/tax-calculators

#100 Faron on 06.28.22 at 2:25 am

#72 Garrick on 06.27.22 at 9:31 pm
Please God, cut the power to Faron’s computer

Sorry bub, my computer runs on unicorn fartz of which I have an infinite supply. In the off chance I run out, I’ll see if I can strike a deal with CEF.

#101 Shane Blackwood on 06.28.22 at 7:33 am

Trudeau is now a “War Leader”. He has sent Canadian soldiers into the battlefield. Reports confirm Canada’s ‘ Special Forces’ ( JTF2) are in the ground in Ukraine. This makes Canada a “co-combatant.” Read that again, a co-combatant. It makes all Canadian positions in the region a target.

Did Trudeau get roped in by EU forces because if Canada’s geography? I think so because all EU countries have refused to fight risking retaliation by Russia. Are they thinking that Russia can’t touch Canada? People who know say Canada is vulnerable on Canadian soil.

Are you guys ready for Canadian body bags? Are you prepared to send your son’s into battle with Justin as a senior battlefield commander? Wow, I puked up a bit writing that.

You should. It’s false. – Garth

#102 crowdedelevatorfartz on 06.28.22 at 8:05 am

@#98 Faron
“In the off chance I run out, I’ll see if I can strike a deal with CEF.”
++++
No worries.
I’m like an endlessly refilling cup.
Magical.

#103 crowdedelevatorfartz on 06.28.22 at 8:18 am

@#90 Satori

Einstein was once asked about religion.
“I like to think for myself.”

Oddly enough.
Religious participation and belief in the US population has been steadily dropping over the past 10 years (71% TO 63%).

This article is from 2019 but it has less popup ads than a similar Dec 2021 article from Forbes. 63 % and dropping.

https://www.pewresearch.org/religion/2019/10/17/in-u-s-decline-of-christianity-continues-at-rapid-pace/

Still the highest participation rate in the western world.
Far surpassing former religious countries such as Italy, France, etc.

The US ironically has similar participation rates to predominantly Muslim countries such and Iran and Afghanistan.

#104 Dharma Bum on 06.28.22 at 8:28 am

#60 Anaconda

The best time to buy anything was yesterday.

Are you new to this blog?

Read the archives.

Timing the market is a mug’s game.

There is no particular advance known “good time” to buy anything.

Construct a balanced and diversified portfolio of equities and income producing assets (including, but not limited to) bonds, and keep investing in it and rebalancing it.

Focusing your efforts specifically on a “good time” to buy bonds is a misguided pursuit.

But, if if you’re looking for a good time….call Quintillian.

#105 Dragonfly58 on 06.28.22 at 8:47 am

Thanks for the advice guys, but things sound about like I thought they would. Wife makes quite a bit more than I do , for the time being at least. She retired at Christmas but got lured back to work recently. Income splitting would help her , but put me in a worse spot . Too bad I wasn’t tuned into all of Garths strategies 35 or 40 years ago, yet another disadvantage to growing up in a blue collar family. You know , the old standby advice ” investing is just like gambling ” was what I was brought up on. Then the big misconception ruled. Invest in yourself, get a good education , a good career, things will work out fine. Until the tables turned all through the 1990’s and 2000’s and very few employment incomes kept up with inflation. Only a percent or two a year shortfall , but over 30 years is sure added up. Todays inflation is the final nail in the middle class coffin.

#106 Sail Away on 06.28.22 at 9:25 am

@Jag

Thx for the Tesla report! Agreed, there is nothing particularly mind-blowingly luxurious; instead it is the sheer simplicity and continually-updated new car effect as long as it’s owned. And almost free to operate with never a problem.

#107 baloney Sandwitch on 06.28.22 at 9:38 am

Great post Garth. Good reminder that recency bias can lay us low. Experience is critical in this business. Never trust a FA who has not been through a few bear markets. Excel skills are no substitute for grey hair.

#108 Sail Away on 06.28.22 at 9:40 am

#85 NOT MY KID on 06.27.22 at 11:22 pm

Re: Religion

———

That is imposing your BELIEFS on others. I don’t sign up my kid for some religious class!!

———

The coach was not imposing or coercing in any way; he was exercising his own personal right to expression at the end of each game.

I personally have no time for imaginary beings in the sky and find public praying ostentatious, like a fart on the bus… but…

It is indeed one’s right to exercise their right to expression. Nobody else has any duty to accept it or participate.

Separation of church and state means neither controls the other. It does not mean the two cannot be equally present.

No different than wearing a turban in public office.

#109 TurnerNation on 06.28.22 at 9:43 am

Electric Vehicles. People haven’t yet caught on, the move toward software-controlled cars and banning of gas cars is all part of Control over our Travel/Movement.

Where is the networks of cross-Canada fast chargers? Crickets.

You will be free to leave your UN Smarty City at any time Comrade! But only for few hundred KM round trip on the juice.

1. $54,000 USD that’s what 80k CAD? For the rich.

https://jalopnik.com/the-average-cost-of-an-electric-car-is-now-54-000-1849112468
The Average Cost of an Electric Car Is Now $54,000
The rising costs of components like batteries and microchips has pushed the average EV cost upwards.

2. You will own nothing and be happy??
Remember, the big global corps are running and enforcing this global “New System”.

https://jalopnik.com/ford-credit-wont-allow-lessees-to-buy-out-its-evs-1849105752
Ford Credit Won’t Allow Lessees To Buy Out its EVs
According to Ford, EVs must be returned to the company to help with costs and carbon neutrality.

#110 jess on 06.28.22 at 9:51 am

ethics ? confidence /lack of trust

=
New York (CNN Business)Ernst & Young has been slapped with a record $100 million fine from the US government after regulators discovered that the company knew some of its auditors were cheating on exams for several years and did nothing to stop it.
The Securities and Exchange Commission said Tuesday that a “significant number” of the accounting firm’s auditors cheated on the ethics portion of the Certified Public Accountant test and other courses needed to maintain the licenses. Perhaps more stunningly, the SEC said that Ernst & Young “made a submission” that it didn’t have “current issues with cheating when, in fact, the firm had been informed of potential cheating on a CPA ethics exam.”
The $100 million fine is its largest ever against an auditing firm.

“This action involves breaches of trust by gatekeepers within the gatekeeper entrusted to audit many of our nation’s public companies,” said Gurbir Grewal, director of the SEC’s Enforcement Division, in a press release. “It’s simply outrageous that the very professionals responsible for catching cheating by clients cheated on ethics exams of all things.”
======
buy ratings?

https://wallstreetonparade.com/

#111 Don Guillermo on 06.28.22 at 9:54 am

#98 Faron on 06.28.22 at 2:25 am
#72 Garrick on 06.27.22 at 9:31 pm
Please God, cut the power to Faron’s computer

Sorry bub, my computer runs on unicorn fartz of which I have an infinite supply. In the off chance I run out, I’ll see if I can strike a deal with CEF.
++++++++++++
Being plumbed into UVic will provide plenty of unicorn fartz. Enough to comment nonsense on blogs for the rest of your ‘working’ days.

#112 crowdedelevatorfartz on 06.28.22 at 9:58 am

@#101 Blackbird

Do you really believe a “leader” such as Trudeau has any stomach for sending our troops in to die.
Ukrainian acolyte Freeland would be another matter entirely….
The internet is full of conspiracy drivel.
The Canadian troops are there to train Ukrainian military volunteers and oversee the Canadian military supplies ( as opposed to letting the Canadian supplies just disappear unto the great unknown with no checks or balances.)

I’m sure Putin is just itching to get his hands on some NATO troops as “proof”.
If we sleep walk slowly like insomniacs into another World War it won’t be for lack of trying everything else first.
The sanctions are starting to bite.
Lets see if Putin is still alive or in charge by Sept.
Either way.
Western clothing manufacturers should start making tens of thousands of winter boots, coats and pants for our foreign dalliance.

#113 Eh...thics on 06.28.22 at 10:21 am

#110 jess

WOW.

Auditors cheating on ethics exam.

I’m sure there is no need to audit their audits of corporation’s ethics and compliance.

What a shitshow?!

#114 TurnerNation Groupie on 06.28.22 at 10:25 am

#109 TurnerNation

Everyone loves and brags about the OTA Tesla updates to their cars.

Other car companies are now doing it also.

Fantastic!

No one considers how easily this tool could brick your car.

It would make total sense to phase this in and have this “SHUT DOWN” tool accessible to those in charge. Press a button, all cars don’t work. Nice.

Sounds crazy today, but in 2035 when you wake up and it happens, we’ll see how crazy it would be.

What would be the reason? Nuclear power shortage?

#115 Shawn on 06.28.22 at 11:18 am

Carbon Tax Rebate – Climate Action Incentive Payments

These payments are coming to the bank accounts of most adult Canadians starting July 1 (was previously an income tax credit). It depends if your province has the federal carbon tax.

We are getting half a year’s payment on July 15 thereafter it will be quarterly

Coming July 15

Alberta – $270 for a single person, $405 for a couple, another $135 if there are two kids under 19

Ontario – $186.50 for a single adult, $279.50 for a couple.

Remember subsequent payments will be half.

Different amounts by province and only Ontario, Alberta, Saskatchewan and Manitoba residents are in the federal carbon tax program and will get this money.

I am not making this up.

Could be a nice bump for July consumer spending.

https://www.canada.ca/en/revenue-agency/services/child-family-benefits/cai-payment.html

#116 Faron on 06.28.22 at 11:30 am

#111 Don Guillermo on 06.28.22 at 9:54 am

Don, I’ll first remind you that I gave you two thorough and fact based rebuttals aw one does in respectful discussion. Please show me where, in our discussion of O+G externalities, I attacked you personally, thanks (note that you are objectively clueless about climate change and the occurrence of extreme events). Until then, refrain from commenting on my work and work arrangements lest you prove yourself to be still more clueless.

#85 Sail Away on 06.27.22 at 11:03 pm
#81 crowdedelevatorfartz on 06.27.22 at 10:13 pm

the best place

Buckle up for some Bic Macs crowdie.

#117 Faron on 06.28.22 at 11:39 am

#115 Shawn on 06.28.22 at 11:18 am

A primary way that inflation slows is through demand destruction. These rebates are stimulative and thus economic idiocy.

#118 Ponzius Pilatus on 06.28.22 at 11:49 am

I have nothing against religion.
Some of the greatest pieces of art have been made in the name of God.
But, unfortunately, some great wars have been fought because of religion.
And I can see why so many people seek it out.
Faith can be a wonderful thing, because science can only get us so far.
Even Einstein admitted that.
But for me, as a searcher for the truth, to join a religion would be the end of my search for truth.
Faith in God and in an Old Book is easy for some people, I suppose.
And I kinda envy those people.
Life must be much simpler with faith.
True faith I mean.
My mother was never religious, but as she got older, she put up a small cross in the living room.
Just in case.

#119 Shawn on 06.28.22 at 12:03 pm

#117 Faron on 06.28.22 at 11:39 am
#115 Shawn on 06.28.22 at 11:18 am

A primary way that inflation slows is through demand destruction. These rebates are stimulative and thus economic idiocy.

******************************
True, stimulation always has a time and a place. Now is not the right time for extra government cheques. But these have been paid for several years. Previously they were universal tax credits in these four provinces and so subsumed in income tax refunds around April. This is not new money. If the government is giving back our carbon tax money they may as well get credit for it.

P.S. For a definition of new money look up the Jean Chretien quote on that subject.

P.P.S. Agreed, it will take recession to get rid of inflation. Demand destruction.

#120 Ponzius Pilatus on 06.28.22 at 12:13 pm

#117 Faron on 06.28.22 at 11:39 am
#115 Shawn on 06.28.22 at 11:18 am

A primary way that inflation slows is through demand destruction. These rebates are stimulative and thus economic idiocy.
——————————-
Agree.
And, I’m getting tired of all that inflation talk.
And how people are whining how bad it is.
Inflation is a byproduct of the capitalistic economic cycle, which we should know by now, has ups and downs.
That’s why you should fatten up in good times, so that you can survive the bad times.
Remember, there is Micro and Macro inflation.
You can control the Micro through your personal consumption decisions (ground beef instead of Steak, etc).

#121 Faron on 06.28.22 at 12:23 pm

#119 Shawn on 06.28.22 at 12:03 pm

#117 Faron on 06.28.22 at 11:39 am
#115 Shawn on 06.28.22 at 11:18 am

True. So, essentially, these refunds are pulling demand forward by 3/4 of a year. Depending on where that money is spent, the effect could be more or less inflationary.

There’s data showing that inventories of all things Canadian Tire are very high and thus there is downward pressure on prices for such things. A summertime tax refund may not be directed toward the inelastic goods like food and fuel as much as toward small appliances and tools and such things, so the effect on inflation may be reduced in that regard.

The associated effect is a smaller refund in April and thus a smaller stimulative bump when we may well be in a mild recession. This policy could come to haunt the economy however small the amounts in question are.

#122 Sail Away on 06.28.22 at 12:28 pm

“Buckle up for some Bic Macs crowdie.”

——–

Heh, always possible. Big Macs are pretty darned good.

But no. The best place serves a proper egg-infused Monte Cristo with sliced roasted chicken, plus fantastic homemade onion rings. Also the best Reubens.

Oh man. Now I have to go there for today’s lunch. Business expense.

#123 Ponzius Pilatus on 06.28.22 at 12:29 pm

Gotta appreciate the irony that the Leader of the “Freedom” Convoy is behind bars.

#124 Don Guillermo on 06.28.22 at 12:38 pm

#116 Faron on 06.28.22 at 11:30 am
#111 Don Guillermo on 06.28.22 at 9:54 am

Don, I’ll first remind you that I gave you two thorough and fact based rebuttals aw one does in respectful discussion. Please show me where, in our discussion of O+G externalities, I attacked you personally, thanks (note that you are objectively clueless about climate change and the occurrence of extreme events). Until then, refrain from commenting on my work and work arrangements lest you prove yourself to be still more clueless.
********
I especially enjoyed your “not having a clue” compliment.
A bit touchy about your ‘work’ arrangements aren’t you now? Fair enough understood, won’t mention it again.

#125 Faron on 06.28.22 at 12:38 pm

#108 Sail Away on 06.28.22 at 9:40 am

#85 NOT MY KID on 06.27.22 at 11:22 pm

I personally have no time for imaginary beings in the sky

Gosh, I don’t know what’s worse. Having fundamentalist Christian views and being a Christian or having fundamentalist Christian views and being an atheist. I’ma go with the latter.

#126 Ustabe on 06.28.22 at 12:39 pm

#90 Philco on 06.27.22 at 11:33 pm

#79 Don Guillermo on 06.27.22 at 10:06 pm
#72 Garrick on 06.27.22 at 9:31 pm
Please God, cut the power to Faron’s computer.
########
Hahaha LOL, he is very cluefull. Just ask him.
=======================
LOL guys thick as a brick just like our leader T2.
You have to pop all 4 tires to stoppem from showing up

Scroll wheel, gentlemen, scroll wheel.

One would think that sturdy conservative men would abstain from cancel culture adjacent commentary. If your only way to combat Faron’s submissions is to diminish and insult online well then, that doesn’t show well on you, eh?

#127 Old Boot on 06.28.22 at 1:19 pm

When you compile a list of the Trudeau government’s failures, malfeasance, and perfidy, it’s really quite impressive in it’s scope and breath-taking hypocrisy. Even by the lax standards to which we hold our politicians.

I would add to this list the elevation of an unscientific, unfalsifiable pop theory, gender ideology, to the status of state enforced religion via Bill #C16.

https://financialpost.com/opinion/joe-oliver-lament-for-a-misgoverned-nation

#128 Faron on 06.28.22 at 1:19 pm

#124 Don Guillermo on 06.28.22 at 12:38 pm

#116 Faron on 06.28.22 at 11:30 am
#111 Don Guillermo on 06.28.22 at 9:54 am

I especially enjoyed your “not having a clue” compliment.

You objectively don’t have a clue about the topic of climate change and weather extremes and don’t seem to have a grasp on the externalitites of increasing CO2. You still have the opportunity to put down your blunt tools and prove me wrong.

Until then, It’s not a personal attack to state the truth, but I understand how having one’s ignorance pointed out can feel uncomfortable.

_________________________________________________

A bit touchy about your ‘work’ arrangements aren’t you now?

Yes, as should anyone who has been subject to threats of harassment by climate denying nut jobs. BillyBob poked around my workplace in a way that could have been damaging to myself and the person I think he was mistaking me for. Any claims would have been baseless, but climate deniers can be about as bonkers as anti-abortion activists. I don’t think you are a nut, but all the same, back the hell off.

#129 DON on 06.28.22 at 1:23 pm

https://www.cnn.com/2022/06/28/world/sterkfontein-cave-australopithecus-fossils-age-scn/index.html

“(CNN)Fossils of early human ancestors from a South African cave are 3.4 million to 3.6 million years old — making them a million years older than previously suspected and shaking up the way researchers understand human origins and evolution.

This new date makes the Sterkfontein Cave fossils older than the famed Lucy fossil (also known as Dinkinesh) from Ethiopia. Found in 1979, Lucy represented the species Australopithecus afarensis and lived 3.2 million years ago…”

#130 DON on 06.28.22 at 1:25 pm

#126 Ustabe on 06.28.22 at 12:39 pm
#90 Philco on 06.27.22 at 11:33 pm

#79 Don Guillermo on 06.27.22 at 10:06 pm
#72 Garrick on 06.27.22 at 9:31 pm
Please God, cut the power to Faron’s computer.
########
Hahaha LOL, he is very cluefull. Just ask him.
=======================
LOL guys thick as a brick just like our leader T2.
You have to pop all 4 tires to stoppem from showing up

Scroll wheel, gentlemen, scroll wheel.

One would think that sturdy conservative men would abstain from cancel culture adjacent commentary. If your only way to combat Faron’s submissions is to diminish and insult online well then, that doesn’t show well on you, eh?

************
That’s a big 10-4 Ghost rider.

#131 Shawn on 06.28.22 at 1:32 pm

Carbon Tax rebates and Faron

#121 Faron on 06.28.22 at 12:23 pm replied:

True. So, essentially, these refunds are pulling demand forward by 3/4 of a year. Depending on where that money is spent, the effect could be more or less inflationary.

*****************************
You have it backwards. This money would have been paid as lump sum larger income tax refund, or smaller tax bill around April this year but instead is delayed with half coming July 15, 1/4 in October the last 1/4 in January.

So it’s LESS stimulative than the previous approach. It pushes demand later in time, not earlier.

When in a hole, stop digging.

#132 Don Guillermo on 06.28.22 at 1:43 pm

#126 Ustabe on 06.28.22 at 12:39 pm

Scroll wheel, gentlemen, scroll wheel.
###########

One would think a not so sturdy lefty could follow his own advice.

#133 Ustabe on 06.28.22 at 2:29 pm

#132 Don Guillermo on 06.28.22 at 1:43 pm

#126 Ustabe on 06.28.22 at 12:39 pm

Scroll wheel, gentlemen, scroll wheel.
###########

One would think a not so sturdy lefty could follow his own advice.

Who is a lefty?

You must be having some reading comprehension difficulties as I have repeatedly drawn on my almost adult life long Progressive Conservative membership, volunteerism and actual paid work. I even was offered, and accepted a contract to Ottawa in Harpers first ascension to power as our guy who paid me during his campaign was elected too.

I guess when keyboard warriors of the sturdy con genre have nothing they simply trot out the “lefty” slur despite a mountain of real evidence to the contrary. You are as willfully stupid as Sail Away.

#134 Don Guillermo on 06.28.22 at 3:36 pm

#133 Ustabe on 06.28.22 at 2:29 pm
#132 Don Guillermo on 06.28.22 at 1:43 pm

#126 Ustabe on 06.28.22 at 12:39 pm

Scroll wheel, gentlemen, scroll wheel.
###########

Who is a lefty?
You are as willfully stupid as Sail Away.
&&&&&&&&&&&
My mistake. I usually don’t associate name calling with conservatives.

Calling SA stupid says more about you. Even if you don’t agree with everything/anything he says it’s obvious he’s not stupid.

You should really be using your scroll wheel advice.

#135 Ustabe on 06.28.22 at 4:39 pm

#134 Don Guillermo on 06.28.22 at 3:36 pm

My mistake. I usually don’t associate name calling with conservatives.

Calling SA stupid says more about you. Even if you don’t agree with everything/anything he says it’s obvious he’s not stupid.

There is a large difference between calling someone stupid and telling someone they are being willfully stupid.

I suppose the nuance of that escapes you.

#136 Dean on 06.29.22 at 9:00 am

Cramar, priorities man, priorities. I am not saying all 58% of Americans can get out of living paycheck to paycheck but I am sure there is alot of room for improvement for many of that 58%.

My spouse and I quit smoking, drink much less, don’t eat out much as much, put off many vacations and have managed to now have $120,000 over 6 years in our RRSPs plus $20,000 csah sitting in our bank account. We are not high income earners, we used to live close to paycheck to paycheck. Our gross income this year for both of us was $82,000 which I believe is average or near average pay in Canada.

#137 Nesty on 06.29.22 at 4:50 pm

#135 Dragonfly58 on 06.29.22 at 11:27 am

Nesty, the inflation calculator I often refer to says aproximately 350 % inflation for the period you are saying had little to no inflation. 350 % !! $100.00 in 1980 bought what it took $350.00 to buy in 2020. If you are talking houses in a major Canadian city the figure is even higher.
How many incomes went up by anywhere that amount. I earned about $15.00 / hour in 1980 as an automobile mechanic. $41.00 / hour as an Engineer in 2019 / last year before retirement. Big upgrade in qualifications and career, not even triple the income. I had a pretty decent standard of living in 1980. Despite moving up in the employment world over those 39 years my standard of living noticeably dropped. I repeat , what planet were you living on ?


You are interpreting those results incorrectly. What you need to look at is the Average Annual Rate of Inflation. From 1980 to 2020 it was a measly 2.90%. You can try this calculator: https://www.bankofcanada.ca/rates/related/inflation-calculator/

Try the same with the S&P total returns for the whole period (1980-2020) and you would notice that 350% inflation over the whole period is a rounding error when compared to the returns of the S&P over the same period.

“I repeat , what planet were you living on ?” In a planet here people understand math.