Asset roulette

The American stock market paused for Junteenth on Monday. Phew. We all need to catch our breath, and ponder what comes next.

So far, the S&P 500 (the index that matters, as opposed to the Dow) is down 23% from its winter high. Anything over twenty is called a ‘bear’ market – the last one came with the pandemic in 2020. Since then, it’s been one gain after another – until recently. On Bay Street, high oil helped keep that correction to 13%. Markets around the world have dropped as inflation roils, interest rates rise, the war rages and post-Covid supply issues bedevil us all.

As we now know, nothing’s been immune. Stocks. Bonds. Trusts. Bitcoin. Houses. Everything crypto. Red arrows over the damn place. That includes people (like me) with balanced portfolios. After gaining 36% in the last three years, my ETFs have given up about 10% in 2022. That, of course, is why I am investing more.

Further details in a minute.

Let’s now consider what rich people do with their money, as opposed to the 99% who wish they were affluent. For starters, one per centers have less debt (that makes sense). Second, more of their net worth is in liquid assets than fixed ones. Third, their exposure to real estate, as a percentage of overall wealth, is far less than others. In fact, the makeup of their holdings is almost the mirror opposite. Whereas the 99% are overweighted to a house and have huge exposure to the real estate market, the 1% have half their assets in equities and financial securities. No one-mule strategy for them.

This is the essence and enduring strength of diversification. Never too much reliance on one thing. Especially a thing that’s lost value twice as fast as stocks in an environment like today’s.

Here’s a chart of net worth composition by wealth  (American data, but worth studying). The 1%ers are in the left-hand column. You can see that the rich (a) rarely have work pensions, (b) hold more business assets, and (c) are light on real estate. In contrast, middle-classers rely far more heavily on pensions and housing. Folks in the lowest percentile of wealth have the largest property risk.

Okay, so what next? Everybody’s been somewhat whacked by 2022. Who will regain their footing the best?

We know interest rates will keep rising. The inflation stats coming on Wednesday should confirm that. The ascent of mortgages will not stop for a while, suggesting we could hit 6.5% or 7% for a fiver, then hold at that level for a long time unless a vicious and protracted recession takes place. Odds of that are low. The bottom line is that house prices will continue to decline and a recovery is distant, after the excessive speculative FOMO-laced orgy we just went through. As momma told me, excess has a price.

The same people who insist rates will soon reverse or the government will rescue real estate are the same ones who swore CBs would never dare increase the cost of money. They were wrong then. They’re wrong now.

So are the wealthy making a sound bet that financial assets will do better?

Likely so. Long-term bond yields have been meeting resistance while short-term rates (the ones central banks can control) continue to rise. The yield curve will invert (short rates higher than long ones, which is abnormal) indicating increased chances of a recession. This is why Mr. Market sold off. “I think we’re 80-90% through this bond market rout,” says my portfolio manager colleague Ryan. “So the worst has been felt by 60/40 investors.”

Adds Cam Hui, of Pennock Idea Hub: “It’s difficult to see how the U.S. economy can sidestep a recession. The good news is the S&P 500 is at or near fair value, as long as earnings don’t significantly deteriorate. Renewed insider buying as the market reached its recent lows is another sign that downside risk may be low.”

Also important is that a properly-built B&D portfolio has diversification among different sectors of the economy and also geographically. So even if stocks and bonds get clobbered together, investors still do better than those with a handful of equities only, or a two-storey suburban box in Whitby.

So what’s coming?

Higher rates. Lower real estate. Inverted bond thingy. A recession and an uptick in unemployment. Gnashing and moaning in the steerage section. And financial assets rising as markets rally on the expectation of recovery. Of course, if oil falls, inflation abates or Ukraine regains peace in the meantime, expect a bull trample.

Okay, some wealthy people are complete dorks. But most got rich, and stay so, for a reason. Worth knowing.

About the picture: “I saw this beauty downtown TO,” writes Victor, “and I thought you would like it for the best blog in the country! His name is Mute, though he barks at anyone that walks by.”

137 comments ↓

#1 Faron on 06.20.22 at 2:42 pm

First we had COVID pulling demand forward. That was the igniting spark of inflation. Inflation becomes a problem when it stokes fear in consumers who then pull demand forward fearing higher prices later. Higher demand that outstrips supply brings higher prices and the spiral begins.

To-wit, here’s a comment from yesterday indicating forward pulled demand as well as supply limitations:

#127 tc-contra on 06.20.22 at 2:14 pm

Ordered a new Crosstrek EARLY February – just got it on Friday. Lease rate 0.99% (while inflation hovers close to 10%)

At the same time we sold older (2019 with <30k kms) Crosstrek at 95.7% of what we paid for!

Crazy times!

The genie is out of the bottle. Inflation is the true problematic mind virus.

#2 TurnerNation on 06.20.22 at 2:42 pm

Greetings from the Car Jacking Capital of Kanada.

–Tax dollars at work. Hospital capacity yadda yadda.
I mentioned, in Q2 2020 that every system designed to protect has been turned against us.
This next drug move in coming to BC.
The data is in, the science is settled. Culling the herd?? Life in our crowded, fetid UN Smart Cities:

https://www.westernstandard.news/news/slobodian-oregons-legalized-drug-crisis-a-cautionary-tale-for-bc/article_ba26ed32-eff8-11ec-ab5f-f3e1217468af.html
“BC should talk to Oregon before forging ahead with a feckless, inhumane plan to decriminalize possession of up to 2.5 grams of drugs including opioids, methamphetamines, and cocaine.
The same insane social experiment failed badly south of the border with mounting tragic consequences, Oregon District 3 State Representative Lily Morgan told the Western Standard.
“It’s becoming harder and harder to save lives. It’s wearing on our people to constantly see people dying in front of us,” said Morgan.”
There are 41% more overdose deaths statewide, with 120% in some counties.
The state has a 700% explosion in addictions. One in five adults are hooked on drugs.
Crimes swirling around the drug trade include “kidnappings, violent assaults, and murders” with bodies being tossed out of cars into parking lots.”

^^ this smacks of:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Strategy_of_tension
A strategy of tension (Italian: strategia della tensione) is a policy wherein violent struggle is encouraged rather than suppressed. The purpose is to create a general feeling of insecurity in the population and make people seek security in a strong government. This is supposed to pave the way for a more authoritarian, or even neofascist, government.[1]

#3 Dave on 06.20.22 at 2:46 pm

What kind of new car did you buy Garth?

#4 Antonio on 06.20.22 at 2:46 pm

Awesome blog been reading since I was 20 years old back in 2007 and been saving since when I’m ready I’ll contact you!

#5 Faron on 06.20.22 at 2:50 pm

Elon Musk, in addition to being a poor speller (I, for one, can forgive that flaw) is pooing his own nest:

Elon Musk’s 18-year-old daughter has filed to legally change her name reason being: “I no longer live with or wish to be related to my biological father in any way, shape or form.”

Hundreds of SpaceX employees signed letter denouncing Elon Musk’s behavior

Maybe ride the next TSLA pump as high as you can and bail. Elon’s NGMI.

#6 Prince Polo on 06.20.22 at 2:58 pm

It should also be noted that the wealthy dorks at the helms of the S&P500 companies will likely pursue aggressive stock buybacks if valuations remain low.

What else should Apple do with its quarterly-replenishing fat stacks?

#7 Søren Angst on 06.20.22 at 2:58 pm

After gaining 36% in the last three years, my ETFs have given up about 10% in 2022. That, of course, is why I am investing more. – Garth

Thanks for rubbing it in Mr. 1% US or otherwise.

Still, thanks for this Blog and the free advice Garth.

————–

So, now is the time to jump back in and buy or do I wait some more?

#8 Yukon Elvis on 06.20.22 at 3:18 pm

DELETED (Abusive)

#9 Don Guillermo on 06.20.22 at 3:20 pm

129 the Jaguar on 06.20.22 at 2:35 pm
@#125 Don Guillermo on 06.20.22 at 1:59 pm
#122 Cars on 06.20.22 at 12:53 pm
+++++++++
“Indeed, well-regarded market research firm J.D. Power’s 2021 Vehicle Dependability Study ranks Porsche as the second-most reliable marque on the market, just behind Lexus and ahead of Kia and (shockingly) Toyota, a position they’ve held for many years not only in the US but Australia also.Jul 21, 2021”++++

I love my VW Golf with its manual transmission. It’s never let me down. Lots of people have offered to buy it, but “nicht zu verkaufen”.
****************
If I was shopping in the open market I probably would have picked the Golf. A little smaller I believe which is a easier around the narrow colonial streets in Mazatlan. Either way you see VW’s everywhere, they don’t stand out and since they’re made in Mexico they’re easy and inexpensive to repair. Parts galore.

I bought the Jetta from a friend that had to let it go for personal reasons. It only had 2000 km so I jumped on it. It’s the first automatic I’ve had in decades. No regrets. Wife loves driving it as well and she’s also good with standards. Farm girl.

#10 Not quite yet on 06.20.22 at 3:21 pm

>> So, now is the time to jump back in and buy or do I wait some more?

Nope. The markets are still going to take an almighty dump once some cancer reveals itself. It ain’t over yet. It may be in real estate, crypto, pension funds, banks for big tech. Who knows. We need the Lehman, Pets.com, Bre-X type moment. It’s the pinnacle throw up moment that we humans looks for to satisfy ourselves that things will get better.

#11 Faron on 06.20.22 at 3:21 pm

Whoa, a vaunted #1 slot. Puts me among the ranks of Crowdie and TurnerNation. Take that The Regulator!

#12 Søren Angst on 06.20.22 at 3:21 pm

#5 Faron

Don’t blame his daughter one iota.

I mean these are the nutters Tweets just in the past 3 days or so:

US Fertility Rate
https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1529097667858546689
[whereupon he will ALWAYS remind everyone he has done his bit to up the rate]

Pumping Dogecoin
https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1538406040374595585
[1 Commenter reminded him he lost his house because of Elon]

Change Starlink name to Stinky “If you can’t smell your wifi, how do you know it’s real?”
https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1538202890258591744

Constantinople 1453 about locking the gate.
https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1537906813797945347

——————–

I despise that deranged lunatic so much I am going to take a bath on TWTR, the Albatross, take the Capital Loss (more tax time misery calcs) and invest in stuff I know will displace the loss in a few months with dividends alone.

His daughter is correct unless, their DNA is all pervasive.

#13 Moar on 06.20.22 at 3:23 pm

Are stocks really at fair market value?

Is today’s market the same as it was at any time over the last 50 years?

No

And the great reset hasn’t even started yet.

#14 db on 06.20.22 at 3:50 pm

Hello Garth,
Very informative post as usual. The graph of asset mix had another interesting tidbit; the 1% also had at least double every other group invested in private businesses. So when private owners (small private corps and sole prop.) come to you for investment advise how do you compare home real-estate exposure to that of a revenue producing business asset? Does the rule of 92 require a bit of tweaking? I ask because even a profitable business would look like asset concentration risk if the owner’s net wealth lacks exposure to the broader equity market.
Couldn’t help but notice the 40-80% groups’ pension ratio; it suggests a DC pension alone won’t put you in the 1% but can pull you out of the bottom 20%.
Also, if the bottom 40% is where renters are overwhelmingly concentrated it suggests homeowners in the bottom 40% are extremely concentrated in real-estate.
Canadian data would be interesting as a contrast.

#15 Søren Angst on 06.20.22 at 3:51 pm

#5 Faron, again and thanks for raising my blood pressure…

As quaint as your Cleantechnica link is, and I liked it, the author is a DUNCE when it comes to capturing Elon with MacBeth or Shakespeare for that matter.

Better from MacBeth:

“Fair is foul and foul is fair: Hover through the fog and filthy air.”

“Thou shalt get kings, though thou be none.”

———

Personally, Henry IV captures Elon well w.r.t. to TWTR:

“A weasel hath not such a deal of spleen as you are toss’d with.”

———

Though, I am also partial to King Lear vis-à-vis Signore Musk:

“Thou art a boil, a plague sore, an embossed carbuncle.”

——————-

What happens when in High School you go for 3 years of Literature (then torture yourself some more at University) WHILST the rest deferred to Home Ec and Gym.

#16 kommykim on 06.20.22 at 4:05 pm

RE: #7 Søren Angst on 06.20.22 at 2:58 pm
After gaining 36% in the last three years, my ETFs have given up about 10% in 2022. That, of course, is why I am investing more. – Garth

Thanks for rubbing it in Mr. 1% US or otherwise.

Still, thanks for this Blog and the free advice Garth.

————–

So, now is the time to jump back in and buy or do I wait some more?

=======================================

Just rebalance your 60/40 when it gets too far out of whack. Market timing is a mug’s game.

#17 Triplenet on 06.20.22 at 4:18 pm

#1 Faron
Like Tiff and his girlfriend Janet – you’re 4+ years behind the inflation 8-ball.
Get your finger on the economic pulse.
Surely your monthly cost has increased substantially over the past 4 years – at the “home”.
Isn’t Regulator across the hallway from you?

#18 Frankie on 06.20.22 at 4:20 pm

I hope real estate in Canada keeps falling fast, hard so Trudeau’s, Freeland’s Liberal tax plan taxing primary and secondary residences, properties keeps getting whacked. A $300,000 or $400,000 house in say Scarborough, East York instead of $700,000, $800,000 today. They need to feel the pain as well. Just like back in 1988 and after, houses fell 40% to 60% in alot of households in the GTA. It is about time.

#19 Bezengy on 06.20.22 at 4:21 pm

What a great time to be a kid. Jobs available, no experience necessary. Sure hope they’re smart enough to take advantage of their good fortune.

https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/canadian-employers-willing-to-hire-workers-without-direct-experience-survey-says-1.1781269

#20 VW GOLF Owner on 06.20.22 at 4:30 pm

#9 Don Guillermo on 06.20.22 at 3:20 pm
#129 the Jaguar on 06.20.22 at 2:35 pm

Was offered $200 trade in for my 2001 VW Golf with 250,000km Diesel. Black book value $2000… I was in no rush to sell so listed it high, thinking I would be bargained down so I put it up for $5600 on craigslist. Next morning 6 replies. SOLD for $5600, no questions asked.

Best car ever!!! Best resale value, safest accident ratings, steel construction.

Had 2 major accidents, both of the other cars at fault and both other cars were destroyed. My VW had a hair line crack on the fender after getting rear ended by a FedEx truck going 50MPH, the other a Toyota…slide down ice on a hill I was going up, whole front end pushed in on the Toyota and my golf had only a small feathering of cracks on the front bumper. First thing the Toyota owner said was “OMG my next car will be a Volkswagon!!”

Would never buy anything else.

German cars all the way!!

Other cars, just coffins on wheels.

#21 rampant inflation on 06.20.22 at 4:35 pm

so. you’re saying a recession is very likely, AND rates have further to rise, AND you think the SP is fairly priced?

not a chance.

earnings are going to get revised MUCH Lower if there is a recession. wall street still has SP earnings rising 9%. good luck with that.

rising rates to kill inflation = recession = falling earnings = falling multiples = lower prices…

nothing is priced in yet.

#22 Søren Angst on 06.20.22 at 4:54 pm

Not to foment Albertan’s but I look at these US LNG export charts:

https://twitter.com/LNGALLIES/status/1537793326576967683

And I just shake my head at what could’ve been for Cdn LNG and esp. at a crucial juncture here in the EU thanks to Petty Putin.

Google has it:

People also ask

Does Canada produce LNG?
Simply put, despite producing 16.1 billion cubic feet of natural gas each day, Canada does not have any LNG export facilities—an astonishing fact for such a resource-rich country. Mar 4, 2022

—————–

Oh 🍁 ?

#23 Mattl on 06.20.22 at 4:59 pm

Faron – regarding that coffee shop, you realize you are being played right? The owner admits his shop is mostly straight white male staff but feels the need to post an “end of the line” Insta post? Complete virtual signaling and example of everything that is wrong with DEI today. These people are grotesque.

FWIW I believe strongly in DEI, my team is quite diverse. Most of my new hires last year would qualify as DEI.

But here’s the thing – for us it is not a marketing campaign, or a social media ploy. . We just hire the best people without prejudice. And as it turns out, DEI candidates are actually good ones. Can you believe that? We don’t need to talk down to any communities, pander, or virtue signal, we just build great teams representative of the communities we work in.

So the question is, how does this coffee shop owner get to a point where, by his own definition, his shop is not inclusive? If he cares about DEI, nothing stopping him from, you know, hiring with that in mind. How and why does Insta play into the whole calculation? Of course the answer is people like you who fall for this BS. So by all means go for that coffee, get served by a white male middle class college student (or maybe a white female if your lucky) and consider how you made the world a better place.

#24 Søren Angst on 06.20.22 at 5:00 pm

#16 kommykim

I have been doing that for quite some time now.

Too stubborn to admit defeat with TWTR having trusted Musk – my stupidly, naivete.

I am well in the +’ve, 2 digit stock rate of return YTD, with average monthly dividends near 30% annualized. I would say Amateur me is doing OK even in a Bear Market.

There are probably many others that read this Blog and are doing much better than I, as for Threadbare Amateur me, I am elated.

I’d being doing a LOT better had it not been for that single stock pick TWTR that is dragging my rate of return down.

Still, I appreciate the effort at helping me out.

Thank you.

#25 Doug in London on 06.20.22 at 5:02 pm

Since stocks went on sale recently, I’ve read a lot of doom and gloom here in the steerage section. What are we to make of it all? Mr. Buffett, what was that you just said about a buying opportunity?

#26 Don Guillermo on 06.20.22 at 5:07 pm

I’m attaching a link that I think many GF commenters will find interesting. Nothing political. The Vlog/Blog host is QRoo Paul. Paul and his wife Linda are Americans that retired early to the Caribbean side of Mexico some years ago. Paul frequently posts invaluable accurate information about joys and frustrations of gringos living in Mexico. This particular video is about a wonderful Canadian couple that retired to a Yucatan jungle acreage in 2018. They’ve designed a home out of shipping containers and are using solar panels and Tesla batteries to live off the power grid. Because they’re in the jungle they have screened in outdoor spaces. They haven’t solved their off-grid water yet. The couple are mixed race Canucks and between the two of them have strong technical and financial backgrounds. It’s about 20 min long. Enjoy.

https://youtu.be/QCESLj4dCbs

#27 Felix on 06.20.22 at 5:10 pm

Just to help clarify the meaning of Garth’s photo today, in financial terms:

The creature on the left is an asset.

The dogawful hairy mop on the right is a liability.

#28 wallflower on 06.20.22 at 5:14 pm

two sales yesterday in my southern Ontariowe city:
one in the $500s and one in the $600s

Starting to appear that everything priced above (which used to be almost nothing about 3 years ago but is now almost everything) is out of bounds for leverage buyers (i.e., bank approval, mortgage)

#29 Squire on 06.20.22 at 5:16 pm

What’s next for housing ? home equity tax ?
maybe

#30 Doug in London on 06.20.22 at 5:18 pm

@Antonio, post #4:
You’ve got me beat, I’ve been following this blog since 2010.

#31 TurnerNation on 06.20.22 at 5:21 pm

Imagine closing Parliment to prevent people from getting a cold or the flu.
Guess they do not Trust The Science behind their shots. Sad.
This is not set to end in Kanada. By design.

.OTTAWA — The Liberals are looking to keep Parliament by Zoom call in place for another year, with a motion to extend the hybrid House of Commons to be introduced this week. ‘We are still in a pandemic reality,’ said House leader Mark Holland, while noting the PM and other MPs have had COVID in recent days (nationalpost.com)

—-
—-
Soo glad we are going back to normal soon, soon!
The Control over our Travel/Movement is permanent. We were given a summertime break.
Once it becomes too cold for outside protest…guess what comes next. (The new laws for asset seizure of protestors will prevent protest, too. See how the Long Game is unfolding lads?)

.No Plans on Removing Mask Mandate on Planes, Trains in Canada (globalnews.ca)

.COVID-19 vaccine passports could be reintroduced this autumn, feds say (montrealgazette.com)

.’Crisis situation’: Atlantic Canada fuel retailers ask Ottawa to cap credit card fees on soaring gas prices (financialpost.com)

— Our leaders no longer work for us. They exist only to do the bidding of the large global Corps.


— In totally unrelated news:

.Moderna vaccine manufacturing plant coming to Montreal region (cbc.ca)

#32 That Guy on 06.20.22 at 5:21 pm

Nice chart. When I see it I have to wonder: aren’t the one preventers the ones who have more financial assets because they’re the only ones who can afford to invest? To support a family will always cost, say fifty grand a year so the more you make above that the more you will be able to invest.

#33 Linda on 06.20.22 at 5:21 pm

According to Google the average net worth of the top 1% in the USA is just over $11,000,000. 12% of that figure would average out to just over $1.2 million in RE holdings. Keeping in mind that RE in the USA is much more reasonably priced it is fairly safe to say the 1% crowd are living in comfort.

I’m thinking the relatively low weighting of pension $ is due to the fact a lot of the very well off may be owners rather than employees.

About inflation. Seems like the expectation is that our official number for May 2022 will be 7.3%. So I’m wondering whether that number was ‘leaked’ so as to smooth out the market ructions? Should the official number match the one already announced then no biggie, yawn, yesterday’s news. If however it is higher than expected could be another market correction will follow in short order.

#34 Healthcare Worker on 06.20.22 at 5:23 pm

#2 TurnerNation on 06.20.22 at 2:42 pm

This next drug move in coming to BC.

The data is in, the science is settled. Culling the herd?? Life in our crowded, fetid UN Smart Cities:

https://www.westernstandard.news/news/slobodian-oregons-legalized-drug-crisis-a-cautionary-tale-for-bc/article_ba26ed32-eff8-11ec-ab5f-f3e1217468af.html

“BC should talk to Oregon before forging ahead with a feckless, inhumane plan to decriminalize possession of up to 2.5 grams of drugs including opioids, methamphetamines, and cocaine.
The same insane social experiment failed badly south of the border with mounting tragic consequences, Oregon District 3 State Representative Lily Morgan told the Western Standard.
“It’s becoming harder and harder to save lives. It’s wearing on our people to constantly see people dying in front of us,” said Morgan.”
There are 41% more overdose deaths statewide, with 120% in some counties.
The state has a 700% explosion in addictions. One in five adults are hooked on drugs.
—————————————
Spent many years working in Health Care, in Mental Health and Addictions. Excellent article! The numbers are ever increasing and so are the deaths. A tragedy.

Great analogy in the article you posted:

“Canada was the first place I ever heard somebody reference ‘Give them the needles, give them the drugs so they don’t have to go to jail for it.’ What is that person’s hope in life? Are they able to work? Are they able to provide for their families? How is that helping that person?”

“If you have somebody that’s a diabetic, you don’t feed them candy every day. Do you stand by with insulin just in case? Do you keep giving them candy to keep their blood sugar out of control because it’s their right to live in that disease, and you’re going to make sure they have access to all the sugar they want?”

#35 JT Dawg on 06.20.22 at 5:24 pm

@VW Golf Owner -you probably got lucky with your diesel golf. I own 2011 Tiguan. It has new engine due to chain tensioner failure (class action lawsuit) all 2009-2015 have the defective part. New transfer case. New Differential. New ignition coils. New bearing in the front. Replaced all 4 stabilizers. All happened with less than 109,000kms. Over $20K in repairs. German garbage. Owned a 2001 Jetta – many problems as well. I also own a 2007 honda. 265,000 kms. I had to put a new radiator in it and also replaced all 4 stabilizers. That’s it after 15 years of ownership. Japanese Quality.

#36 espressobob on 06.20.22 at 5:29 pm

Ah, the buy and hold versus the contrarians. As the latter it seems for some reason there’s no blood on the streets. No excruciating suffering to suggest a buy signal.

Still boring…

#37 Mr Happy on 06.20.22 at 5:32 pm

“We’re not there quite yet. I’ll let you know.”

Sooooo… start buying…or wait a bit???? I have almost $200K in cash (recently inherited) and I am waiting for a good entry point.

#38 Søren Angst on 06.20.22 at 5:32 pm

#21 rampant inflation

I disagree.

Pretty much my assessment by Seeking Alpha article (obv my assessment is not as detailed but my thoughts for the most part when you look at ACTUAL US Consumer spending and Debt data):

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4519317-the-week-ahead-it-is-not-that-bad

And as for the “nothing is priced in yet”.

As Garth wrote today, S&P 500 down by 23% from its Winter high (YTD = -22.9%). Historically, pullbacks of 20-40 percent have registered an average recovery period of only 13.8 months. 10-20% is 4 months.

6 months almost up.

https://www.guggenheiminvestments.com/mutual-funds/resources/crucial-conversations/putting-pullbacks-in-perspective

Some believe the S&P 500 is overshooting. I agree. Shortage of oil worldwide yet being hammered on the S&P 500. Clear to me Mr. Market is over reacting.

https://www.afr.com/markets/equity-markets/sp-500-poised-to-overshoot-fair-value-says-bank-of-america-20170302-guolb3

#39 Ponzius Pilatus on 06.20.22 at 5:33 pm

VW is planning to build 2,000,000 EV’s starting 2024.
Good buy, Elon.
Hope it’s not too lonely on Mars.

#40 JSS on 06.20.22 at 5:38 pm

Did you trade in your Kia for a new one?

#41 crowdedelevatorfartz on 06.20.22 at 5:49 pm

@#11 Faron
“Whoa, a vaunted #1 slot. Puts me among the ranks of Crowdie and TurnerNation.”

++
Alas!
Fame and Blogdog fortune will ruin you.
The fall off the Greaterfool precipice is unexpected, swift and not without pain.

#42 Sail Away on 06.20.22 at 6:20 pm

An 80yo woman was arrested for stealing a can of peaches. The judge said, ‘There were 6 peaches in the can, so I’m sentencing you to 6 days in jail.’

Just then, the woman’s husband spoke up: ‘She also stole a can of peas.’

#43 Ponzius Pilatus on 06.20.22 at 6:21 pm

#119 wallflower on 06.20.22 at 12:34 pm
#70 Satori on 06.19.22 at 11:57 pm
#64 It is different in Victoria on 06.19.22 at 10:17 pm
#50 Reality Check.
This homelessness is prevalent everywhere. Every city. Even the smallest of cities.
Growing rapidly.
Vancouver and Victoria happen to be the most year-round outdoor livable across Canada, hence their higher numbers.
——————————-
Very good comment. Factual and to the point.
No moralizing and whining.
And, it explains the higher drug overdoses, too.

#44 Fact Checker Fred on 06.20.22 at 6:32 pm

Sorry, having trouble with Garth’s asset allocation suggestion. My house was a reasonable price when I bought it, however, it’s ballooned to a ridiculous level. Likewise my cottage.
Should I sell them so I have the Garth approved percentage in real estate? Or wait a few years for my real estate value to drop and my equities to ressurect until I,m back in Garth’s good graces?

#45 Midnight's on 06.20.22 at 6:34 pm

So, Freeland is a Journalist, a Finance Minister, and a General. Quite the resume. I hope she attends funerals at least?

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/canada/article-evening-update-unsupported-by-any-evidence-russia-claims-162-canadians/?utm_medium=email&utm_source=Evening%20Update&utm_content=2022-6-20_17&utm_term=Evening%20Update%3A%20Unsupported%20by%20any%20evidence%2C%20Russia%20claims%20162%20Canadians%20have%20been%20killed%20in%20Ukraine&utm_campaign=newsletter&cu_id=dabTBZKGPqs0yoo6MbC5ew%3D%3D

#46 crowdedelevatorfartz on 06.20.22 at 6:39 pm

@#39 Ponzie’s Pal
“VW is planning to build 2,000,000 EV’s starting 2024.
Good buy, Elon.”

+++
Elon bought VW shares?
Now THATS diversification.

#47 Islandgirl on 06.20.22 at 6:45 pm

Well I have been watching my kids RESP slowly lose value over the last year, although I have also seen it go up, hoping this isn’t going to head in that direction for a while since we’re nearing when we will actually need them to be able to start withdrawing from it in the next few years. Hoping it picks up. Hubby would likely have starting panicing and pulling it out, but I’m just sitting watching it fluctuate, hoping that the turnaround is soon. It’s managed by the bank (because I just don’t have the mental capacity to manage it as well) but for the most part it has grown more than it has lost, but with kids heading into grade’s 11 and 9, we don’t have many years left of just saving.
Side note, house on the street finally sold for “asking” of course that’s ignoring that its listing expired twice and they lowered the price each time. And then another across the street sold, but they never put up a sign, sold for much less then I thought it might. Wondering if the “As is” was part of the reason.

If your kids’ RESP was in a correctly-balanced portfolio there is no way it has lost money for an entire year. Markets hit a record high in February, and balanced portfolios earned at least gained 13% in 2021. Of course, if you’re in mutual funds [email protected] sold you, all bets are off. – Garth

#48 Philco on 06.20.22 at 6:51 pm

Garth whats my delete ratio?

True story below. We are doomed with the leftist.
That includes T2 the no mind.

Short read from a farmer

Has common sense left us?

A close friend farms over 10,000 acres of corn in the mid-west. The property is spread out over 3 counties. His operation is a “partnership farm” with John Deere. They use the larger farm operations as demonstration projects for promotion and development of new equipment. He recently received a phone call from his John Deere representative, and they want the farm to go to electric tractors and combines in 2023. He currently has 5 diesel combines that cost $900,000 each that are traded in every 3 years. Also, over 10 really BIG tractors. JD wants him to go all electric soon.

He said: “OK, I have some questions. How do I charge these combines when they are 3 counties away from the shop in the middle of a cornfield, in the middle of nowhere?” “How do I run them 24 hours a day for 10 or 12 days straight when the harvest is ready, and the weather is coming in?” “How do I get a 50,000+ lb. combine that takes up the width of an entire road back to the shop 20 miles away when the battery goes dead?” There was dead silence on the other end of the phone.

When the corn is ready to harvest, it has to have the proper sugar and moisture content. If it is too wet, it has to be put in giant dryers that burn natural or propane gas, and lots of it. Harvest time is critical because if it degrades in sugar content or quality, it can drop the value of his crop by half a million dollars or more. It is analyzed at time of sale. It is standard procedure to run these machines 10 to 12 days straight, 24 hours a day at peak harvest time. When they need fuel, a tanker truck delivers it, and the machines keep going. John Deere’s only answer is “we’re working on it.” They are being pushed by the Left in the government to force these electric machines on the American farmer. These people are out of control. They are messing with the production of food crops that feed people and livestock? all in the name of their “green dream.” Look for the cost of your box of cornflakes to triple in the next 24 months?

#49 Sail Away on 06.20.22 at 6:52 pm

Elon sets a new record… again:

https://news.yahoo.com/spacex-breaks-record-3-launches-092804877.html

#50 Sail Away on 06.20.22 at 7:05 pm

#39 Ponzius Pilatus on 06.20.22 at 5:33 pm

VW is planning to build 2,000,000 EV’s starting 2024.
Good buy, Elon.
Hope it’s not too lonely on Mars.

——-

If wishes were horses, beggars would ride.

#51 Stone on 06.20.22 at 7:05 pm

#7 Søren Angst on 06.20.22 at 2:58 pm
After gaining 36% in the last three years, my ETFs have given up about 10% in 2022. That, of course, is why I am investing more. – Garth

Thanks for rubbing it in Mr. 1% US or otherwise.

Still, thanks for this Blog and the free advice Garth.

————–

So, now is the time to jump back in and buy or do I wait some more?

———

Jump back in? Stay balanced and diversified. And rebalance as needed. Easy.

https://www.fomotina.com/balance-and-diversification-part-2/

#52 Cars on 06.20.22 at 7:19 pm

#20 VW GOLF Owner on 06.20.22 at 3:43 pm
#129 the Jaguar on 06.20.22 at 2:35 pm

You guys are funny.

Praising a 21 year old car for safety.

In 2 decades safety has improved so much, that 2001 Golf IS the death trap and coffin you describe others with.

German cars…look, they aren’t total trash, and if it floats your boat and their marketing of being special works for you knock yourself out.

However, what is clear without any doubt, German car brands do not offer superior engineering, performance, reliability, dependability, resale value.

What they are clearly doing is pushing down market with their product diluting their brands and trying to grow units by selling ever lower end cars.

BMW – my goodness, what a nightmare those budget low end models are now for their brand image. What happened to their cars? YUK! That new grill, my goodness.

Mercedes – abysmal safety ratings and reliability. Weird designs that age so poorly. Diluting AMG brand to nonsense just to pull more money from people’s pockets who have no idea what AMG stood for, meant or delivered. Now they strap a turbo to a production line engine and it’s an AMG. $20K extra please. Funny.

Audi – don’t get me started. They have a few good looking cars, but for some reason…you say Audi, I think chick car. Of course Realtor as well, as observed on here. And…232 PROBLEMS PER 100 VEHICLES! JUNK!

What’s left? Mass produced not-at-all-special average cars from companies who have proven themselves ethically challenged.

VW Dieselgate is not enough for you? Go back a few decades, there are plenty of reasons to not be seen in VW products.

#53 Cars on 06.20.22 at 7:22 pm

#39 Ponzius Pilatus on 06.20.22 at 5:33 pm
VW is planning to build 2,000,000 EV’s starting 2024.
Good buy, Elon.
Hope it’s not too lonely on Mars.

>>>

I’m planning to tell 2,000,000 not to buy them.

Because VW sucks and no one should buy any VW products on principal.

Also, I’m planning some erotic adventures. Doesn’t mean it will happen. Mostly because just like VW, I’m short on batteries. WAY short for 2,000,000.

#54 Quintilian on 06.20.22 at 7:58 pm

“After gaining 36% in the last three years, my ETFs have given up about 10% in 2022. That, of course, is why I am investing more.”

Impressive, maybe there is something to this B&D portfolio selected and managed by a pro.

As stated many times before, I’m no gambler oops! I mean no public equity investor, but you, however; must really know where to dig for those gold nuggets.

I look at even the basic meat and potato vanilla type companies and most of them seem to have a Beta in sync with the broader market so I would not know where to look for safety.

Then don’t buy individual stocks. I don’t. – Garth

#55 The burning flame on 06.20.22 at 8:01 pm

Largarde head of the ECB just said while the correction in asset prices has been orderly,

the RISK of a further and possibly abrupt fall in asset prices remains SEVERE.

We were first warned by the Fed, second warning by the ECB.

Folks, beware or be burned.

Her reference was to European financial markets, not your TFSA. Chill. – Garth

#56 crowdedelevatorfartz on 06.20.22 at 8:43 pm

@#44 The burning Flame
“Folks, beware or be burned.”

+++
I have a similar dire warnings to financial friends that have partaken in a Roman feast of beer, beans, cabbage and then…….. attempt to light a cigarette.
Never, ever, in an elevator.

#57 crowdedelevatorfartz on 06.20.22 at 8:46 pm

@#44Philco.
WOW!
It wont be just Cornflakes that triples in price at the grocery store……….

#58 crowdedelevatorfartz on 06.20.22 at 8:50 pm

@#48 Sail Away
“Elon sets a new record… again:”
+++
SpaceX is amazing.
I can’t wait to see that beast of a Starship launch into orbit this year.

Has NASA’s long delayed Artemis rocket even passed the test phases yet?

#59 Dr V on 06.20.22 at 9:01 pm

47 Philco

“True story below. We are doomed with the leftist.”
————————————————————–

Hi Philco. I’ve posted a link to this site before. In Canada, fossil fuels account for almost 80% of all energy by end use demand.

https://www.cer-rec.gc.ca/en/data-analysis/energy-markets/provincial-territorial-energy-profiles/provincial-territorial-energy-profiles-canada.html

People just do not realize the effects here. Virtually everything we use or consume has a great deal of fossil fuels baked in.

#60 Ponzius Pilatus on 06.20.22 at 9:05 pm

#42 Sail Away on 06.20.22 at 6:20 pm
An 80yo woman was arrested for stealing a can of peaches. The judge said, ‘There were 6 peaches in the can, so I’m sentencing you to 6 days in jail.’

Just then, the woman’s husband spoke up: ‘She also stole a can of peas.’
—————-
All I can say is: “Joke come out, you are surrounded”

Here is an Accountant joke:
What’s the difference between an introverted Accountant and an extroverted one?

The introverted one looks at his shoes when talking to you.
The extroverted looks at your shoes.

#61 Greg on 06.20.22 at 9:23 pm

Where is my UBI Trudeau promised me. Freeland, you did not do enough on inflation, give me a $3,000 a month UBI or GAI what ever you want to call it, just pa me $3,000 a month Freeland.

#62 Ponzius Pilatus on 06.20.22 at 9:23 pm

Someone called Musk the most successful “African-American”.

#63 Scott on 06.20.22 at 9:29 pm

Lagarde is a retard. She has no idea what she was doing as a french finance minister and this is this case with the ECB.

#64 Victor Llearna on 06.20.22 at 9:30 pm

ANyone notice that bitcoin price seems to rise and fall with SPY?

#65 tbone on 06.20.22 at 9:32 pm

It must suck not having any money to buy a car .

#66 crowdedelevatorfartz on 06.20.22 at 9:43 pm

Ponzies Pals
Update! Recep Erdogan ( Turkey’s Dictator!)
Whats a dictator to do when he controls everything in his country Ponzie?

Declare war on everyone!
A Turkish political opposition member was sentenced to 5 years in jail. ( she posted insulting messages to Erdogan).
The “official” inflation rate is 73%..economists believe its over 100%
Erdogan promises MORE interest rate cuts…the Lira is plummeting.
Erdogans ‘ only threat?
The Mayor of Istanbul is fighting in Court because he called election officials “fools” for tossing his SECOND victory at the polls out . He faces 4 years in prison.
Erdogan has called protesters “terrorists” and worse.
Several protesters from nation wide 2016 protests have been recently sentenced to 18 years in prison.
Erdogan also wants to “invade Syria”…
Why?
Since Putin and Erdogan are pals…..
It would allow Erdogan to hope voters will focus on something other than the miserable life they currently live in Turkey …..just like Putin’s invasion of the sovereign country of Ukraine.

#67 tkid on 06.20.22 at 9:43 pm

Here’s a real estate mess for the blog dogs:

Got Screwed On Real Estate, Should I Kamikaze This With Banckrupty
https://old.reddit.com/r/PersonalFinanceCanada/comments/vgwmjb/got_screwed_on_real_estate_should_i_kamikaze_this/

He bought a house in Hamilton with the intention to create 3 units, he needs a mortage plus reno money, and the banks will not give him a mortgage as it is a commercial property. Plus, he claims the realtor had him unknowingly sign a no-conditions contract. He wants to declare bankruptcy.

What would you do in his shoes, blog dogs?

#68 Philco on 06.20.22 at 9:46 pm

#57 crowdedelevatorfartz on 06.20.22 at 8:46 pm

CEF its the trickle down effect will be everwhere!! Everything we eat is derived from these building blocks.
Omg we are up poop creek with these clueless fools.
Im constantaly working out how too stay ahead of foolishness. My Family needs protection… And ALL great Canadians!

#69 inflation is rampant on 06.20.22 at 9:59 pm

wow. look at that. New York Fed model now projects NEGATIVE GDP growth for 2022 AND 2023

-0.6% 2022
-0.5% 2023

https://libertystreeteconomics.newyorkfed.org/2022/06/the-new-york-fed-dsge-model-forecast-june-2022/

“…the model predicts modestly negative GDP growth in both 2022 (-0.6 percent versus 0.9 percent in March) and 2023 (-0.5 percent versus 1.2 percent). According to the model, the probability of a soft landing—defined as four-quarter GDP growth staying positive over the next ten quarters—is only about 10 percent. Conversely, the chances of a hard landing—defined to include at least one quarter in the next ten in which four-quarter GDP growth dips below -1 percent, as occurred during the 1990 recession—are about 80 percent.”

sure. it’s a model…

#70 T Rex and the dinosaur clique on 06.20.22 at 10:19 pm

Interesting that this has suddenly become a car blog.

Best car ever built?

The Mercedes Benz 300D turbo diesel.

They will do millions of KM. They are virtually indestructible.

They were used as German taxis. When the Germans couldn’t kill them, they sent them to Africa, where to this date they are STILL being driven around.

Best cars ever. If you ever manage to get your hands on one, keep it.

It will outlast any new car you purchase. You can leave it in your will.

#71 VW GOLF Owner on 06.20.22 at 10:35 pm

#52 Cars on 06.20.22 at 7:19 pm

—————————–
Yup, VW, Mercedes, BMW and AUDI, you hate them all?? You are missing a few that are also built and OWNED by these big German car markers. :)

BMW owns Rolls Royce and the mini cooper.

AND that little Volkswagon company you hate – owns Škoda, Seat, Cupra, Audi, and… wait for it VW also owns Lamborghini, Bentley, Porsche and Ducati. (HAHAHA true facts!)

You can google the rest dude, just adding to your “Most Hated Cars” list.

Likely time for you to start reaching out to the 1% and try to convince them they are driving junk. LOL!!

#72 John C on 06.20.22 at 10:44 pm

Actually, I believe the poster meant to say ‘good bye to Elon Musk’ because…

Tesla faces losing its crown as the world’s biggest electric car maker to Volkswagen by 2024, according to new research.

A study by Bloomberg Intelligence expects the German giant to double production to more than 2 million battery-powered vehicles in 2024, overtaking Tesla.

Rising battery costs and limited production capacity meant most other competitors, including Ford and General Motors, lacked an incentive to catch up as quickly as Volkswagen, the report said.

Good for the company VW!! People glad electric is coming, the wait lists for electric cars are epic.

Had a white little bug back in the day, made some long road trips, travelled coast to coast, lots of good times, and great memories!

#73 Ponzius Pilatus on 06.20.22 at 10:57 pm

#59 Dr V on 06.20.22 at 9:01 pm
47 Philco

“True story below. We are doomed with the leftist.”
————————————————————–

Hi Philco. I’ve posted a link to this site before. In Canada, fossil fuels account for almost 80% of all energy by end use demand.

https://www.cer-rec.gc.ca/en/data-analysis/energy-markets/provincial-territorial-energy-profiles/provincial-territorial-energy-profiles-canada.html

People just do not realize the effects here. Virtually everything we use or consume has a great deal of fossil fuels baked in.
——————
I think most people know that.
Only the forward thinking ones know that it has to change.

#74 Ponzius Pilatus on 06.20.22 at 11:06 pm

#65 tbone on 06.20.22 at 9:32 pm
It must suck not having any money to buy a car .
—————-
I have the money.
But still don’t buy a car.
Because I don’t need one.
Also, it’s stupid to spend 6,000 and up on something that you on average probably use only a few hours a day.
When I need a car, I call Mr.UBER

#75 Sail Away on 06.20.22 at 11:12 pm

#62 Ponzius Pilatus on 06.20.22 at 9:23 pm

Someone called Musk the most successful “African-American”.

——–

Ron DeSantis for one. He’s a cool dude. Maybe next US pres?

#76 fishman on 06.20.22 at 11:29 pm

Who knows how many Canadians the Russians have killed. However we all know one Canucklehead they haven’t killed. Even if the Russkies haven’t officially acknowledged that they have a Canadian General that was slated to take over our military last fall. Now lil potato is charging him with two more sexual misconduct charges. The Libs angling for a cell upgrade in Lubyanka maybe?. Beria had one down in the basement. Special for the prepubescent girls he’d grab randomly off the streets of Moscow. That would be a good fit.

#77 Garth's Mentor on 06.20.22 at 11:34 pm

Bought the property in the 2018 downturn. Sold the property in Feb.

800k sitting in cash account in Questrade.

Going all in equities starting Aug 8. Anticipating 30% bottom, it could be worse, but that to me is not a bad entry if I can get it.

Retired since age 28. Came from nothing.

#78 DJT on 06.21.22 at 12:24 am

Its 2000 Mules, that’s the trick.

#79 Nordic Reader on 06.21.22 at 12:32 am

Garth – absolutely love the blog; I read it every day.

#52 Cars on 06.20.22 at 7:19 pm
#20 VW GOLF Owner on 06.20.22 at 3:43 pm
#129 the Jaguar on 06.20.22 at 2:35 pm

You are all very funny. I am sure Garth is into another Volvo as he wants to be safe while projecting hood taste and sophistication. They are still the safest cars on the roads and that applies to even earlier designs from 2000s. The only issue with them now is that they are priced insanely high. It is still the only brand that values safety and prestige at about the same level. My favourite real world crash test is below (no wonder there are no decent XC70s on the used car market – who would like to part with this kind of safety while sitting in a motorized chair travelling at high speeds?!)

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=Ys2HKrNqAN0

As an added bonus: these cars just don’t rust and look like new a decade after purchase. Of course you cannot run them on a shoestring budget like a VW. Yet they are robust and highly durable. Volvo for life!

#80 Jay (not that one) on 06.21.22 at 12:35 am

One thing we always have to be careful of is to not just create a cargo cult based on what the 1% is doing.

Are the super-rich so because they have a diverse portfolio of holdings, or do the super-rich just end up with a diverse portfolio of holdings as part of the process, or do the super-rich forcibly push towards having a diverse portfolio of holdings after becoming super-rich? The answer is important.

#81 crowdedelevatorfartz on 06.21.22 at 12:43 am

@#60 Ponzie pediatrist problems
“Here is an Accountant joke:
What’s the difference between an introverted Accountant and an extroverted one?
The introverted one looks at his shoes when talking to you.
The extroverted looks at your shoes.
++++
But…..
Is the accountant still wearing the oversized clown shoes?

#82 crowdedelevatorfartz on 06.21.22 at 12:52 am

@#68 Philco
“Omg we are up poop creek with these clueless fools.”
+++
Yep.
2 more years of Trudeau.
Hopefully the recession will have the voting hounds braying for his reptilian blood.

Buy beans, bumwad, bullets, bullion, bibles and back bacon.
Great tradeables for the Trump survivalists that overwhelm Canada after China takes Taiwan and all its chips…….and Wal Mart is bereft of sale items
:)

#83 Jeff on 06.21.22 at 1:16 am

The reason wealthy people have more diversification and a higher percentage of their wealth in markets instead of housing is because they’re rich already.

It’s not a recipe it’s a result.

#84 Dr V on 06.21.22 at 1:53 am

73 Ponz

“I think most people know that.”
———————————————–

Hi Ponz – I also found this site interesting, especially the
pie down the right hand side.

https://ourworldindata.org/emissions-by-sector

The text on the left explains some of the allocations.
From that text

“Sixty percent of road transport emissions come from passenger travel (cars, motorcycles and buses)….”

I’m sure many people think that that having an electric passenger vehicle would take a huge chunk out of their carbon footprint, when in fact it might reduce it by an average of maybe 7%.

So no, I dont think most people have really thought the
entire thing through, especially F1 drivers.

#85 Diamond Dog on 06.21.22 at 2:20 am

“I think we’re 80-90% through this bond market rout,” says my portfolio manager colleague Ryan. “So the worst has been felt by 60/40 investors.” – Garth

Have to disagree with that, we’ve got more pain than this ahead. I’ve said it before, guess I’ve got to say it again there’s no soft landing, a recession is needed to change price behavior and here’s why:

https://www.longtermtrends.net/m2-money-supply-vs-inflation/

If we look at the chart, from Jan of 1971 to June of 1973, m2 was in double digits before falling below 10%. Inflation rose from June of 1973 @ 5.73% to 12.34% in November of 1974 or 19 months after m2 fell below 10%.
It took 19 months for pricing to fall even though people began to run out of money. In Jan 31st of 1974, m2 was 6.15%. It still took 10 full months following for inflation to peak. When did we hit 6% m2, last week?

Same chart, m2 is at 9.71% in May 31st 1975 and stays above 10% until December of 1977 for 2.5 years. Inflation during this time was down, beginning to rise as m2 crossed inflation falling around 10%. It took from Jan of 1978 to Feb of 1980 or 2 full years for inflation to peak from m2 dipping and staying below 10%.

When was m2 last at 10%? End of February of this year. Sure, these are different economies, different decades, heck, different CPI inflation metrics. Everything is different including a whopping 27% m2 peak in late 2020 and yet, some things are still the same.

It takes time for m2, that’s what’s in people’s savings accounts and wallets if readers don’t yet know, peoples savings or lack thereof, to influence price downward. Really, it takes recession to break human behavior forcing prices down. The more money people have, the more it influences price up as we saw record m2 in 2020 jack inflation not seen in 40 years but human behavior is important to note.

If the consumer is stingy even though savings accounts have improved, they don’t spend so it’s not the only metric; growth, consumption and history is also at play. We see this in the same chart above through the .dot com bubble bust, the GFC of 08′ and 09′, and 2011 through 2013, we can have double digit m2 but if the consumer is stingy because of past or present hard times, there’s no meaningful inflation so consumer behavior (confidence) and history counts!

This doesn’t describe 2020 though really, does it. The everything bubble with m2 hitting the high 20’s, maximum employment from so much money spun off from the everything bubble, supply AND demand shocks from the rapid increases in the money supply both narrow and broad with real estate values and free money from the Fed driving everything, it would almost make us think “it’s different this time”, but it’s not.

Once again, the only thing that’s going to break price behavior, the behavior of those who actually set the price, the price gougers, the inflation profiteers, the folks passing it on, is recession and the Fed rate is the trigger. Almost every time the Fed hikes rates meaningfully, recession follows and NOTE. You don’t get a drop in inflation until you get recession:

https://allstarcharts.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/07/7-23-11-10-yr-yields-FFR-and-inflation.jpg

Another way of looking at this is with 30 year mortgage rates. We can’t have an everything bubble without a real estate bubble and we can’t have that without rock bottom 30 year mortgage rates. Lets take a look:

https://www.macrotrends.net/2604/30-year-fixed-mortgage-rate-chart

We had the lowest rates in history from April 2020 @ 3.23% to Dec 2021 @ 3.13%, 21 months of the lowest 30 year mortgage rates in U.S. history with the Fed adding 5 trillion of freshly borrowed money on it’s balance sheet to get it done.

Point is, the Fed was in full stimulation mode a mere 6 months ago and we are 80 to 90% over this thing? Based on? It sure isn’t history. We haven’t even begun a recession yet. What is this, an outlier? If I want outliers, I can get those at the coffee shop.

If we think we are going from the end of low 3% 30 year mortgages in the U.S. to recession and falling inflation all in one year, we can think again, it’s too soon. Even with the help of statistical numbers based on high inflation numbers from a year ago, it’s too soon.

And so I’ll opine a best guess. 8’s and 7’s for CPI inflation for the rest of the year. These are cooked numbers, keep this in mind, the Fed knows it too. April of 2023 at the earliest, inflation drops below 7%, could be below 6% by June but high inflation is likely to be persistent into Q3 of next year. The Fed says 2.5 to 2.75% Fed rate is neutral. If true, they would be wise to not go over 3.5%. If they go to 4, they can’t stay there but if they did, they are throwing the markets a bone.

So, I’ll speak it plain when it comes to bonds. There are many, many types of bonds. If investors want to invest in floaters, as long as yield doesn’t effect “coupon price”, I’m good with it. Beats cash doing zero, as long as it’s fluid and saleable at any time and as long as it’s businesses that will still be here 10 years from now. However… if investors have been guided into buying bonds specifically with yields that effect price “before” the Fed rate hits 3.5%, prepare to lose money (at the very least, value).

If the Fed rate hits 4%, I can’t imagine higher but if it does, it would be a great opportunity to buy bonds since the Fed will have to lower rates below 2.5% but don’t bet the farm “even though it’s past neutral”. There will be glorious opportunities to bottom fish for equities next year, cash is king in recessions and there is such a thing as fiscal risk.

My growing fear is the Fed blinks and drops rates from 3.5% past the mid terms or 4 if they get there to below 2.75% which would be a great short term shot in the arm for both bonds and equities (selling premium bonds into jumping equities, what’s not to like), but if they did, it could interrupt a recession needed to drop prices and therefore prolong higher inflation, lead to a second potentially worse recession and it would likely be the beginning of a weaker dollar trend that has the potential to not stop (raising inflation from imports). The U.S. is a debtor nation running consistently high trade deficits with income taxed at 145% and growing. It’s an ugly garden party out there nationally but this number is ugly, don’t bet the farm.

#86 Stuck on Stupid on 06.21.22 at 3:13 am

Every Breath You Take was the hit song of the Police 40 years ago in 1982

2022 Version is Every Dollar You Waste.

#87 Cristian on 06.21.22 at 3:26 am

“As we now know, nothing’s been immune. Stocks. Bonds. Trusts. Bitcoin. Houses. Everything crypto. Red arrows over the damn place.”

Not true. Two of the asset classes in my portfolio (30% TIPs and 20% commodities) are in positive territory, while the cash part (half-half USD-CAD) has lost some of its value due to inflation (but less than if I had it invested in almost anything else), and gained some due to USD strenghtening.
All in all, I am down about 4% for the year. Not too bad.

#88 under the radar on 06.21.22 at 4:46 am

67 – ill conceived plan by a person who evidently did not read what he signed. He deserves to fail. Never rely on someone else’s word, when their livelihood depends on making a sale, especially an agent.

Cars, I have and had most of the cars I dreamed of as a kid with some exceptions. I’m done with older collector cars as I have no time to tend to them and frankly they just don’t offer the comfort and performance the new ones do. There are 2 cars I have never had and look at every now and then , and thankfully give my head a shake. My daily driver is a 22 ram longhorn and it drives about as nice as the one that comes out once a week and sleeps under the cover.

#89 Fortune500 on 06.21.22 at 7:36 am

My house is paid off. That represents 58-60% of my net worth. We are in our early 40s. Should we take equity out to add to our investments to put us closer the percentages held by the wealthy?

Should we sell, rent and put it all in equities?

You should stop asking silly questions on a blog, devoid of meaningful context. – Garth

#90 OK, Doomer on 06.21.22 at 8:01 am

#5 Faron on 06.20.22 at 2:50 pm
Elon Musk, in addition to being a poor speller (I, for one, can forgive that flaw) is pooing his own nest:

Elon Musk’s 18-year-old daughter has filed to legally change her name reason being: “I no longer live with or wish to be related to my biological father in any way, shape or form.”
++++++++++++++++++++++

Ah, yes… I remember the sweet heady smell of youthful intolerance. Anyone who disagreed with my obviously superiorly evolved 18 year old sense of unique insight and self-righteous indignation was worthy of scorn ridicule and shunning.

I grew out of being intolerant. She will too. They all go through it.

I always get a chuckle out of the perception that people are tolerant in youth and grow intolerant as they age. If that was the case, there would no young soldiers.

#91 Mr Happy on 06.21.22 at 8:19 am

“#38 Søren Angst on 06.20.22 at 5:32 pm

Some believe the S&P 500 is overshooting. I agree.

https://www.afr.com/markets/equity-markets/sp-500-poised-to-overshoot-fair-value-says-bank-of-america-20170302-guolb3
===================================

You do realize that article was from 2017….right?

#92 CHERRY BLOSSOM on 06.21.22 at 8:32 am

Diversification didn’t work in the 2008 crash. Ask Amanda Lang. she talked about this back then. Everything got hit badly

Not the people who stay invested and ignored Amanda. – Garth

#93 the Jaguar on 06.21.22 at 8:37 am

Why is this ‘Cars’ guy so worked up about VDubs? Is he fresh off the Oshawa line or just forgetting that on the road of life, there are passengers and there are drivers? Mercy.

Jaguar is off to Vantown later in the week and will be chauffeured around in a friends new Tesla. A Muskateer, if only for a few days. I’ll feign excitment for the benefit of my chauffeur. Forecast looks great.

No interesting snippets in this mornings broadsheets.

Just Freeland and Yellen palling around looking for photo ops. Once July hits it will be all about the mid terms, end of August the war will be winding down, then restoration and the beginnings of the coming Renaissance. Any way you measure it’s a great time to be alive.

#94 Ponzius Pilatus on 06.21.22 at 8:46 am

About reliability of German cars.
It’s always interesting that when you arrive at Frankfurt Airport, almost all Taxis are Mercedes.

#95 Ponzius Pilatus on 06.21.22 at 8:52 am

#66 crowdedelevatorfartz on 06.20.22 at 9:43 pm
Ponzies Pals
Update! Recep Erdogan ( Turkey’s Dictator!)
Whats a dictator to do when he controls everything in his country Ponzie?

Declare war on everyone!
A Turkish political opposition member was sentenced to 5 years in jail. ( she posted insulting messages to Erdogan).
The “official” inflation rate is 73%..economists believe its over 100%
Erdogan promises MORE interest rate cuts…the Lira is plummeting.
Erdogans ‘ only threat?
The Mayor of Istanbul is fighting in Court because he called election officials “fools” for tossing his SECOND victory at the polls out . He faces 4 years in prison.
Erdogan has called protesters “terrorists” and worse.
Several protesters from nation wide 2016 protests have been recently sentenced to 18 years in prison.
Erdogan also wants to “invade Syria”…
Why?
Since Putin and Erdogan are pals…..
It would allow Erdogan to hope voters will focus on something other than the miserable life they currently live in Turkey …..just like Putin’s invasion of the sovereign country of Ukraine.
————————
CEF
Why do you post this here?
FoxNews is always looking for garbage news.
You could make some money, and get a much larger audience.

#96 Cars on 06.21.22 at 8:56 am

#71 VW GOLF Owner

Yeah, I know. Go back to yesterday’s post please where this exchange started. When I say VW products I mean the umbrella of the Group. Ducat are motorcycles not cars just for others reading, since subject was cars.

Personally I walked away from an amazing deal I was being offered by GP Bikes on a sexy red demo SuperSport S with 1100km on it. Even though I know it has got nothing to do with VW’s Dieselgate, I walked away from it for a few reasons, including the 50km speeding law in Ontario – as I know I will speed on that bike, regularly. But the fact that VW owns Ducati certainly helped me justify not handing over the dollars as wel.

#9 Don Guillermo

…as per yesterday…

Why do you pick and choose and go with 2021 when 2022 is here, ranking Porsche below Lexus and Toyota.

Porsche is actually often excluded from these J.D. lists because the overall sample size or percentage of units in the wild tends to be small. Normalizing this small sample size can produce wild and unreliable results, and for that reason the ranking has a large margin of error.

We could have a discussion about Porsche, but what it comes down to really is this: Porsche is an SUV company. They make and specialize in making premium SUVs, which are based on platforms developed for VW and Audi, repackaged and of course branded as Porsche and priced accordingly. Whatever else Porsche make is but a hobby afforded to them by the above noted SUVs unit sales.

#79 Nordic Reader

Volvo? Safe?

How?

Oh…the Chinese CCTV cameras installed in it along with the data spying and conversations being recorded and transcribed by the Chinese state while inside your Volvo cabin makes you safe?

Volvo jumped the shark when it became Chinese owned. It can rank at the top of the list in safety, it doesn’t matter.

OH, and just for the record, Volvo ranks AT THE BOTTOM of dependability and reliability ratings. Darn things are worse than Audi, with 256 problems per 100 vehicles. WOW, 256 problems per 100..only RAM and Range Rover rival these sucky ratings.

VOLVO? No thanks!

#97 Stan from Canmore on 06.21.22 at 9:20 am

For an electric vehicle, how long do these batteries last?
My understanding is they last anywhere from 10 – 15 years as they slowly die.
And to replace one ? Around $10,000 to 15,000 (in today’s money). And what happens to these zillions of old batteries with parts that cannot be recycled ? Sounds like a problematic environmental disaster later on to me. So maybe electric vehicles are not the solution necessarily that it is cracked up to be.

No ?

I’ll stick to my gas vehicle for now, thank you very much.

#98 Cars on 06.21.22 at 9:37 am

#93 the Jaguar

Well, since you ask, I’ll tell you.

Dieselgate, in my view was such a flagrant ethical, moral and trust breach – it is darn unforgivable. Like your wife cheating on you over and over again – yes, that bad…as bad as corporate behaviour can get.

At the end of the day Corporations are just a bunch of people working together to make a product or a service we’ll buy. For these people to disregard not only their “valued” consumers handing over the money to them for their wares, but also everyone else and in essence SELL THEIR BREATHING AIR of those who don’t give them any revenue, knowing well how polluting their product was and how damaging the fine particulates emitted by diesel are to the human respiratory systems, including countless data points that show these fine particulates take out 4 years…4 YEARS off the average city dwellers life…well, that’s just unforgivable.

Many studies conclude that these particulates contribute to various respiratory illnesses as well. And perhaps, considering how deeply entrenched diesel has been in Europe and for how long, perhaps these diesel fine particulates edited in cities by cars contributed to the higher European Covid death rates. Who knows? After all, Covid deaths are respiratory weakness related, and these diesel fine particulate certainly weaken the human respiratory system. Anyhow….

The fact that consumers overlook such indiscretion and flagrant abuse of trust with such ease, and are so easily bought back by some VW Group sales event shows how morally bankrupt the consumer is.

You cannot own a VW product and not be turning a blind eye to this corporate behaviour and indifference.

Also, and I can’t overstate this enough, it shows that the consequences of such indiscretions aren’t really that bad. After all, write the fines off against profit, company is at a loss, tax credits cover half easily if not more…where is the problem? And so it opens up other potential breaches of trust by other corporations because the sheeple consumer doesn’t have the determination to say no to the product and punish the corporation. They can be bought, seduced…and since we own so many brands, one way or another…we’ll get their dollars.

Look, I’m not some maniac conflicted individual. I know we have to consume. But we can consume intelligently. We can consume ethically. We can make choices that signal our preference for certain values. And I DO NOT support the values that VW Group has shown. This is in their culture. It takes a long time to get something like this out of their corporate culture. And no amount of greenwashing VW electric cars will change that fact. Everyone is so blinded by electric, no one is really considering the damage this will bring either.

As a foot note, don’t think I don’t know that Audi/Porsche (VW Groups other products) and Mercedes and even BMW were in on this Dieselgate scam. This fact actually adds to my low view of German car makers. Package this behaviour with poor reliability, below average dependability, premium price for nothing but image and marketing campaigns, poor resale values, along with various poor safety ratings and you’ve got an easy HARD PASS on German cars. No thanks.

The solution to our carbon and car issues is simple:

WEIGHT

Damn cars are getting heavier and heavier, bigger and bigger. And why? Because car companies can’t sell you a small light car for more money. People associate weight with value. Consumers have been pushed by marketing campaigns targeting self worth and ego into inefficient large SUVs they absolutely do not need. Why? Because revenues and margins are better. Obviously. Why else is Porsche an SUV company? Stupid consumers think of the 911…while Porsche is laughing and selling the world SUVs. One of the best marketing stunts ever pulled on the consumer in terms of perception and image vs. reality of revenue and profit source.

Don’t expect a corporation to do something that is efficient at the cost of revenue and margin. And so…4000lbs cars. 5000lbs cars. FOR WHAT?

Cars could be so much fun and so efficient. Put a small engine in a light car. Take out weight from what is rolling on the roads. THAT is the EAST solution to our problem, not electric cars, which by nature of the poor battery technology used in them are heavy. Electrons or gasoline, mass takes energy to move.

POLITICIANS SHOULD TAX CARS BASED ON WEIGHT…not MPG. That would address this problem really quickly.

By the way, what happened to the Air car? It seemed tested and so promising? Shelved? Because it would kill the margins, the oil money the battery mining and SUVs?

Imagine, you pull up to a gas station, fill up on compressed air and go another 200km. Exhaust would be even cleaner air…because it would be filtered internally.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tata_OneCAT

Apparently impossible to do? Why isn’t anyone working on this one? I KNOW WHY!

RANT OVER! :-)

#99 Faron on 06.21.22 at 9:39 am

#78 DJT on 06.21.22 at 12:24 am

Its 2000 Mules, that’s the trick.

Heads up Garth, the above is a 2020 election conspiracy reference.

#100 Fortune500 on 06.21.22 at 9:52 am

I was serious …

#101 Jungle Boy on 06.21.22 at 10:04 am

As an individual stock owner I’ve taken a 6% haircut. But, the high dividends spit back cash flow every month, quarter, semi and annually. If we go sideways , the loss is moot. ETFs on the other hand pay no monthly dividends which is why I don’t own them and I always have cash to reinvest opposed to finding money to buy regardless of volitility. In fact yield has gone up in many cases.

I course the other mentions are relevant, don’t own too much house, be debt free, marry a young wife is also good, keep lots of vacation cash is tops.

#102 Cars on 06.21.22 at 10:08 am

#94 Ponzius Pilatus

About reliability of German cars.
It’s always interesting that when you arrive at Frankfurt Airport, almost all Taxis are Mercedes.

()()()()()()()()

When you arrive in Cuba, almost all the Taxis are Ladas.

When you arrive in London, all the Taxis are Chinese Geely.

So what?

Doesn’t change how poorly German car brands perform in dependability and reliability ratings.

#103 Cars on 06.21.22 at 10:20 am

#97 Stan from Canmore

You nailed it Stan from Canmore!

Some have 10 year warranties, some less.

At about 100,000 km they start fading out.

Funny enough, Volvo, mentioned here by another did a comparison of an XC40 petrol to a Polestar Electric, and it concluded that the crossover point in terms of carbon efficiency is around 140,000 km driver for both cars. At that point the electric Polestar starts showing net benefit.
I have to find that study, because it was quoted in a G&M article if memory serves me right, and I should have looked for it and book marked it.

But what’s interesting is that at 140,000 km…indeed, as you say that Polestar will need a new battery.

What we should also wonder about is the push for more and more electronics and various associated capacitors and ICs that are likely to shortened the road worthiness of a car. You can keep an old mechanical classic on the road no problems. Will you be able to keep these electronics heavy cars on the road for same amount? NO CHANCE!

Apparently, as a product, a car today lasts 12 years or 200,000 miles.

#104 Satori on 06.21.22 at 10:35 am

#93 the Jaguar on 06.21.22 at 8:37 am
Why is this ‘Cars’ guy so worked up about VDubs? Is he fresh off the Oshawa line or just forgetting that on the road of life, there are passengers and there are drivers? Mercy.
————–
Me thinks he works at Toyota, and might be losing his job because the huge increase in sales for VDub. Just can’t stop people from loving german cars.

#105 Satori on 06.21.22 at 10:55 am

#100 Fortune500 on 06.21.22 at 9:52 am

If you own your home mortgage-free, and you both love the area, stay. Why sell? For money? Life is about more than just money.

Houses are homes, not just investments – privacy, a safe neighbourhood, nice neighbours, people you know, a place you are free to change up if you want, no one will evict you because they are selling, memories and shelter no one can run you off of. It might just be brick and mortar but it’s a bit more if you love the place you are in.

IF you decide you want to rent, first go and have a look at ‘what’ you can rent for ‘what’ amount… then decide. THAT in itself might change your mind right quick!!

In any case, it’s up to you and sometimes…. something completely unexpected and unimaginable happens and you find yourself doing whatever is required. Regardless of the current viewpoints or advice. Which ain’t so bad either cause that’s Life. One Big Fantastic Adventure!! Wishing ya luck!

#106 Dr V on 06.21.22 at 11:01 am

98 Cars

“Electrons or gasoline, mass takes energy to move.”
————————————————————–

It is amazing that people dont make this connection.

Given identical vehicles, driven in the same manner, a V8 engine will get the same mileage as a V6, other than the different weights of the engines themselves and
some minor efficiencies.

A good example is the Ford F150, which shed several hundred pounds of weight in 2015 with an aluminum
body. This also allowed the engine displacement to drop
to 2.7L.

#107 Ponzius Pilatus on 06.21.22 at 11:02 am

#97 Stan from Canmore on 06.21.22 at 9:20 am
For an electric vehicle, how long do these batteries last?
My understanding is they last anywhere from 10 – 15 years as they slowly die.
And to replace one ? Around $10,000 to 15,000 (in today’s money). And what happens to these zillions of old batteries with parts that cannot be recycled ? Sounds like a problematic environmental disaster later on to me. So maybe electric vehicles are not the solution necessarily that it is cracked up to be.
——————
Agree with you.
The only solution is driving less, getting smaller cars and using public transport.

#108 GERMAN CARS RULE on 06.21.22 at 11:03 am

#98 Cars on 06.21.22 at 9:37 am
You cannot own a VW product and not be turning a blind eye to this corporate behaviour and indifference.
——————————-
Every other car marker made copious amounts of sneaky causing deaths and s*$t… they slammed VW cause they have the top sales and the others were all slagging behind. That was the BIG issue, that domestic cars were given the opportunity to get a leg up when they slam basted VW… but guess what happened, oh you know, that is why you are so mad. VW back in top seller position.

You can’t ignore it… uhhh YES dude, you can. :)

#109 RadicalRob on 06.21.22 at 11:04 am

Quit equating “real estate” with “houses” . Providing US numbers is rather disengenuous as well.

It is well known that most wealthier folks own “significant” holdings in real estate and may just own their own private residence. I have an 8 figure portfolio that holds more real estate than equities. Without real estate, I would not be in that position.

Yet the only house I own is the one I live in. No FOMO. No emotions. Business as usual. But also no free capital gains….

#110 GERMAN CARS RULE on 06.21.22 at 11:10 am

#98 Cars on 06.21.22 at 9:37 am

If you really want to get angry at a car maker, pick a car maker that caused actual ‘deaths’ and got away with just a slap on the wrist and a sticker with no recall.

Thousand of people lost loved ones, and your all up in german cars… something sounds kinda personal with ya, I don’t think you are sharing the ‘whole story’. Past GF had a bug maybe?

#111 Faron on 06.21.22 at 11:12 am

#97 Stan from Canmore on 06.21.22 at 9:20 am

Sounds like a problematic environmental disaster later on to me

Whew, good thing burning gasoline and diesel don’t have extremely dangerous and health deleterious negative externalities.

#112 Dr V on 06.21.22 at 11:12 am

80 Jay 83 Jeff

You make a valid point.

But you miss the biggest one.

The chart is based on income and not wealth. 1% income in the US is a few hundred thousand dollars, and varies from state to state.

https://www.usatoday.com/story/money/2020/07/01/how-much-you-need-to-make-to-be-in-the-1-in-every-state/112002276/

There are a good deal of wealthy people who do not realize large incomes. It is not tax efficient. They are typically small and medium size business owners, including professionals who incorporate.

Or like Warren Buffett

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/warren-buffetts-base-salary-has-stayed-at-100k-for-the-past-25-years-11647281751#:~:text=A%2C%20%2D0.20%25%202021%20proxy,his%202019%20total%20compensation%20of

So what surprises me is the 80-99% do not have a larger percentage as private business. Perhaps this would be change if it was broken down into smaller groups ex 95-99% etc.

#113 Mac Truck YYC on 06.21.22 at 11:16 am

#98 Cars…
Reduce weight of cars?? You do know that these things are actually ‘killing machines”.

I drive a massive pick-up truck, why? because I would rather be a hammer than the nail.

No one in my family will be buying a cheap tin-can car, ever.

#114 DJT on 06.21.22 at 11:23 am

#1 Faron -Conspiracy theory was the Trump-Russia collusion hoax, Dems spent last 5 years trying to overthrow the 2016 election result with it.

#115 Sail Away on 06.21.22 at 11:33 am

#93 the Jaguar on 06.21.22 at 8:37 am

Jaguar is off to Vantown later in the week and will be chauffeured around in a friends new Tesla. A Muskateer, if only for a few days. I’ll feign excitment for the benefit of my chauffeur. Forecast looks great.

———-

Uh oh.

They say if you don’t want a dog, you shouldn’t look at puppies.

#116 Shawn on 06.21.22 at 11:41 am

Recession watch fizzles on the day

Canadian Retail sales for April are out. Looks very strong. Not only up in dollars but somehow up in volume too.

But I see some oddities in the data that make me think that this report comparing April to March and April this year to April last year may have some data issues.

They report that supermarket sales were down 0.3% month over month and down 0.8% year over year. Okay how is that possible if prices were up close to 10% year over year and yet there is no mention of volume being down? Did people really cut back about 10% on grocery volume year over year to make up for prices? Or did the grocery sales just shift from supermarkets to general merchandise (Costco)? Just strange. Well maybe diversion to restaurants and less stocking up explains it.

Clothing store sales were up an eye-popping and whopping 73% year over year. What? Were clothing stores mostly closed last April? Or everyone worked at home and stayed home with no need for new cloths? Or they bought cloths from U.S. retailers online last April which I believe I heard are not in these figures.

https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/daily-quotidien/220621/t002a-eng.htm

Okay well, I gotta admit there is no evidence of recession in these numbers. Better luck when the May and June numbers come out.

Looks like good news for Costco. Mixed news for Canadian Tire as general merchandise was up but garden supplies were down – but remember we had a cold April in pretty much the whole country. Don’t count Canadian Tire out. And they are now big in clothing – Marks, Sport Check and Helly Hanson.

#117 Philco on 06.21.22 at 11:42 am

#82 crowdedelevatorfartz on 06.21.22 at 12:52 am
————————
Did ya see him down in Cali signing deals to save us all!?
Cali the disaster capital state of USA. If you not on fire their taxing you to death. Mass exodus from there.
And there’s T2 looking like the fool he is. He embarrasses me.

#118 Faron on 06.21.22 at 12:42 pm

Now that inflation is here and is really really bad, get ready for it to go away. Many of the drivers of inflation have peaked and started to fall off. Core PCE has been dropping over the past three months. Here’s a thread on the drivers.

You don’t want to not be invested when PCE/CPI start printing lower, the Ukraine war settles or the US Fed gets dovish. That kind of news with high VIX will mean explosive rallies.

#119 Is anybody listening? on 06.21.22 at 12:55 pm

Wild conspiracy theories from 1998… David Icke

https://twitter.com/i/status/1538775464634122240

#120 Paul on 06.21.22 at 1:01 pm

#99 Faron on 06.21.22 at 9:39 am
#78 DJT on 06.21.22 at 12:24 am

Its 2000 Mules, that’s the trick.

Heads up Garth, the above is a 2020 election conspiracy reference.
—————————————————————–
Hahaha I hope Garth doesn’t stop short or you would be all the way up. lol

#121 Faron on 06.21.22 at 1:08 pm

#128 crowdedelevatorfartz on 06.20.22 at 2:30 pm

Applying for a job?

Ha, well done. Front of the line baby!

#122 Shawn on 06.21.22 at 1:14 pm

Feel Sorry for the Rich 1%?

Surely the bottom 20% who have little or nothing in equities and bonds should feel sorry for the 1% who have 48% of their assets there and are by far the biggest losers as the financial markets have declined this year to date.

The bottom 5% are particularly lucky as they have likely completely escaped this pain in almost all cases.

#123 jess on 06.21.22 at 1:19 pm

more lines of code complexity …so independent mechanics become extinct (right to repair laws)
=============

persuasion with EVIDENCE
New Poll Finds 6 in 10 US Adults Support Prosecuting Trump for January 6 Capitol Attack
from ABC News/Ipsos,
58 percent of US adults support prosecuting Trump for the riot—including
91 percent of Democrats and
19 percent of Republicans. (About 60 percent of independents believe Trump should be charged.)

who would pay to download that shite!
https://www.thebulwark.com/dinesh-dsouzas-2000-mules-is-a-hilarious-mockumentary/

well apparently there are a few takers!
Kari Lake, who can’t wait to get elected governor of Arizona so she can jail her political opponents, is championing the film—

follow da money …. that facilitated this attack. …dozens of buses were rented; signs advertising “Stop the Steal” were on the sides of some of those buses; food and lodging had to be paid for, in or around expensive Washington, D.C.; and, now, lawyers have to be paid to represent those indicted for brutalizing police on January 6 or destroying and/or stealing government property.

#124 Faron on 06.21.22 at 1:59 pm

#107 Ponzius Pilatus on 06.21.22 at 11:02 am

#97 Stan from Canmore on 06.21.22 at 9:20 am

Agree with you.
The only solution is driving less, getting smaller cars and using public transport.

Yep, car culture must die where possible. More than 80% of Canadians live in urban areas. Unless they have commercial needs, they should be well-served enough by transit to not need a car. Right now, that isn’t the case in most places. Capital needs to go there.

#125 jess on 06.21.22 at 2:02 pm

contrast and compare

“I want to understand the stolen election myth,” Thompson says in the opening moments of the film. “Where did it come from? Who’s behind it? And how is the ongoing battle over the last election threatening the next one?”
this is excellent journalism tracking the facts and follow the money
https://www.pbs.org/wgbh/frontline/film/plot-to-overturn-the-election/transcript/

#126 Faron on 06.21.22 at 2:04 pm

#114 DJT on 06.21.22 at 11:23 am

LOL, no. That “conspiracy” was bipartisan and resulted in numerous indictments and convictions. Trump was never under investigation, so how could that have ever lead to his overthrow (aside from him having the scruples to recognize his failings and misdeeds and then resign AKA Nixon)?

There has been zero, none zip, zilch nada evidence of the kind of voter fraud that could turn the election. Trump lost the popular vote. He lost the electoral vote and he then proceeded to attempt a coup. He’s a disgusting slime ball.

#127 Ponzius Pilatus on 06.21.22 at 2:04 pm

#113 Mac Truck YYC on 06.21.22 at 11:16 am
#98 Cars…
Reduce weight of cars?? You do know that these things are actually ‘killing machines”.

I drive a massive pick-up truck, why? because I would rather be a hammer than the nail.

No one in my family will be buying a cheap tin-can car, ever.
————————-
I had a Nissan Pathfinder once.
An old tiny Honda Civic came out from a side street and hit my car on the right front.
It was his fault.
But he drove away, and my big car got written off.
Good I had depreciation protection insurance.
It’s in the angle, my friend.
Like a karate chop breaks the brick.
Also, gotta remember, big cars lack maneuverability.

#128 jess on 06.21.22 at 2:06 pm

Russian journalist Dmitry Muratov, who won the Nobel Peace Prize last year, auctioned off his medal for $103.5 million on Monday, with proceeds donated to help Ukrainian child refugees.
Heritage Auctions tweeted that Muratov “auctioned his 2021 #NobelPeacePrize to benefit UNICEF’s child refugee fund. It sold for $103,500,000.”

#129 Shawn on 06.21.22 at 2:08 pm

Yes, ETFs often pay dividends

#101 Jungle Boy on 06.21.22 at 10:04 am

ETFs on the other hand pay no monthly dividends which is why I don’t own them

*******************************
Well, many ETFs pay dividends. Most are likely quarterly but some are monthly. Are you referring just to not paying monthly versus quarterly? I would think with basket of ETFs there is some money coming in each month although there may be a concentration in the quarter end months?

#130 Sarah on 06.21.22 at 2:19 pm

This article was posted 4 months ago, and I still think about it all the time.

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/real-estate/toronto/article-whitby-bungalow-sells-for-425100-over-asking-after-seven-buyers-submit/

#131 Sail Away on 06.21.22 at 2:23 pm

Well, I’m off to the north to see how we can increase production and transportation of massive quantities of coal.

Doing my part for global emissions. Consider investing in coal and railways, because never will people, me included, accept the slightest inconvenience when resources are available. Canada’s coal and oil are money in the bank, periodic politico foppery notwithstanding.

#132 Old Boot on 06.21.22 at 2:28 pm

#90 OK, Doomer on 06.21.22 at 8:01 am

#5 Faron on 06.20.22 at 2:50 pm
Elon Musk, in addition to being a poor speller (I, for one, can forgive that flaw) is pooing his own nest:

Elon Musk’s 18-year-old daughter has filed to legally change her name reason being: “I no longer live with or wish to be related to my biological father in any way, shape or form.”
++++++++++++++++++++++

Ah, yes… I remember the sweet heady smell of youthful intolerance. Anyone who disagreed with my obviously superiorly evolved 18 year old sense of unique insight and self-righteous indignation was worthy of scorn ridicule and shunning.

I grew out of being intolerant. She will too. They all go through it.

I always get a chuckle out of the perception that people are tolerant in youth and grow intolerant as they age. If that was the case, there would no young soldiers.

***********

The ‘daughter’ is in reality a son. Kid has bigger problems than having Elon Musk for a sperm donor.

#133 Cars on 06.21.22 at 2:40 pm

#104 Satori on 06.21.22 at 10:35 am
#93 the Jaguar on 06.21.22 at 8:37 am
Why is this ‘Cars’ guy so worked up about VDubs? Is he fresh off the Oshawa line or just forgetting that on the road of life, there are passengers and there are drivers? Mercy.
————–
Me thinks he works at Toyota, and might be losing his job because the huge increase in sales for VDub. Just can’t stop people from loving german cars.

————–

You thinks? Let’s break down how badly you thinks.

First, assuming I work somewhere. Considering the posts, long ones too…shouldn’t you think my money is working for me instead?

Second, can’t lose what I don’t have.

Third,
Toyota sold 10.5m vehicles in 2021. 10%+ INCREASE over 2020. WOW. People sure appreciate reliability, value, dependability it turns out. Toyota workers of the world…your jobs are safe!

VW Group 8.88m vehicles sold in 2021, DOWN from 9.3m in 2020…EAT IT VW GROUP…seems not all consumers have forgotten. Oops…seems we need to make some job cuts to reflect shrinking sales.

Lastly, I guess YOU CAN stop people from loving German cars after all. Personally I aim to stop them from VW Group products based on Dieselgate and total disregard and contempt of their consumer public, but it turns out the poor reliability and dependability along with poor resale value and quickly aging designs are the better more effective argument.

Go ahead…tell me how it was because of chip shortages there Satori. Chip shortages that allowed Toyota to grow 10%.

#113 Mac Truck YYC

I guess you think you need a big heavy thing to be safe because you’re not aware of technologies that exist that could be applied to safety.

I guess you have not seen SMART crash tests to see what’s possible in such a small package.

I guess you’ve never seen an F1 car take a 20, 30 or 40G impact either.

Yeah, you keep thinking that all that mass is keeping you safe. Guess what happens to mass when you accelerate it? Guess what happens to that force when you hit a tree with your heavy truck that keeps you safe.

Forgive me picking on you, but ignorant simplistic statements like you made are just that.

Weight DOES NOT equal safety.
Light CAN be made safe, and certainly efficient.

#106 Dr V

Dr V you got it!

I quote Colin Chapman who’s views back in the 60s are just as valid to F1 as they are to today’s cars.

“Simplify, then add lightness.”

#134 Sunshowers on 06.21.22 at 2:56 pm

Your causes and effects are backwards.

People aren’t wealthy because they spend a smaller share of their income on housing, they spend a smaller share of their income on housing because they’re wealthy.

It’s the same reason people with low incomes spend a greater share of their income on food/rent/transportation than the wealthy. When you HAVE less income, you need to spend a greater share of it on the bare necessities. If you have a large income, you can maintain the same level of essential spending and invest the rest.

Low income people can’t budget their way to prosperity any easier than a hungry person could ration their way to food security. It’s not an issue of consumption, it’s an issue of supply.

#135 Mac Truck YYC on 06.21.22 at 3:16 pm

#133 Cars on 06.21.22 at 2:40 pm
#127 Ponzius Pilatus on 06.21.22 at 2:04 pm

Gentlemen,

In a collision between a truck and a car, there is a lot of physics at work, but you don’t need to be a scientist to know the outcome. Although speed can play a major factor in any accident, an accident between two objects of such different sizes even at low speeds can be catastrophic for the car.

If you have been involved in an accident with a truck, you know about the potential damages and injuries that can occur.

No kid or family member of mine will be driving a TOY-o-ta-Tonka but if you so feel the need to save on gas and money before you consider your life… get yourself a moped for the road and don’t forget to pack a shovel for the grave.

#136 jess on 06.21.22 at 3:23 pm

old boot: this might broaden your view

https://gem.cbc.ca/media/sports-on-fire/s01e06?cmp=GEM_cbc.ca_homepage_shelfnew

#137 Fortune500 on 06.21.22 at 7:51 pm

Thanks Satori!