Bumps & lumps

Few expected 2022 would bring this. But here we are. A new world. Not a disaster, by any means. (This ain’t Ukraine, after all. Or Uvalde.) We can cope.

Mohamed El-Erian is a smart, Cambridge-based economist, who sees it this way:

“It’s about time we exit this artificial world of predictable massive liquidity injections where everybody gets used to zero interest rates, where we do silly things whether it’s investing in parts of the market we shouldn’t be investing in or investing in the economy in ways that don’t make sense. We are exiting that regime and it’s going to be bumpy”.

Damn straight. No ponies for everyone, anymore. Your house won’t make more than you every year. Crypto coins some guy in a Def Leppard T-shirt dreamed up four months ago will not make you forever wealthy. Crazy monkey NFTs worth seven figures in March are on their way to zero. The days of WFH, moving to the sticks without consequence and the Great Resignation are coming to a shuddering end. Financial portfolios are giving back their pandemic gains on fears of a recession.

All these asset classes are being whacked. Nowhere to hide. But they’ll move in radically different paths going forward. Crypto is doomed. Not blockchain technology, which is a solid move forward, but make-believe ‘currencies’ that will collapse in heaps of volatility. Get out and stay out, kids.

Financial assets – like equities, bonds, trusts, preferreds and the funds holding them – have been sideswiped as CBs finally find the spine to address inflation. It’s too late to sell, too dumb to turn paper losses into a real ones. Things will turn when inflation rolls over, Putin’s war winds down, CBs stop tightening or P/E ratios get too tasty to resist. History shows us equity markets are leading indicators. They anticipate events, bottom early and rally into recovery. Stay invested.

History also tells us real estate’s an utterly different beast. Sentiment plays a huge role. Emotion moves housing. And people believe things for the weirdest reasons, now heavily influenced by social media. It’s as hard to understand why oceans of people would swamp a concert by the talentless Harry Styles as it is to fathom why someone paid $1 million over asking for a suburban house in Bunnypatch.

But they did.

The pile at 40 Brewster Place in Cambridge was listed at the height of the frenzy in February, at $1.395 million. A nice house. But no palace. And it’s in, ahem, Cambridge – a blue-collar place which is a mere 90-minute, white-knuckle kamikaze drive from Big Smoke’s core.

The property made headlines four months ago when it fetched $2.275 million. Yes, a mill over asking. Plus land transfer tax. The listing agent was so aroused he had flyers printed up boasting about the over-asking madness, and distributed them in neighbouring hoods, trolling for listings.

Here it is:

So the inevitable appears to have happened. The buyer balked, and walked. The closing scheduled for May never happened, and a law suit is pending. The original owners have now put it back on the market, at $1.499 million, and will be lucky to see that.

So many deals are crumbling that lawyers normally busy with closings are devoting their entire practices to buyer breaches. Not surprisingly, many newbie (and terrified) rogue purchasers think the worst thing that will happen to them is losing a deposit (which the Bank of Mom may have coughed up). But that’s just the start. As the properties they contracted for eventually sell for far less, buyers will be sued for costs, damages and the difference. It’s a litigation lawyer’s best dream.

Also happening: lender appraisals are falling as fast as mortgage rates rise. Banks and others are pulling in their horns, limiting risk in a declining market environment and doing what the CB wants – restricting credit. Many buyers are totally shocked as they come close to closing day and learn the mortgage funds being offered are far less than required to complete the deal. What was worth $1 million ninety days ago may be appraised at $800k today, with a reduced LTV.

As for loan costs, the change is spectacular. This week, for example, Scotia moved ahead to 5.3% for a fiver, and two days later BMO went to a posted rate of 6.04%. Add in the stress test, and we have a hurdle of 7-8% for newbie buyers. There’s no market in the land that can withstand that, given prices and debt loads. So valuations must fall.

By the way, it’s not just Canada. Look at what’s happened to mortgage payments in the US, where the housing market has also just frozen:

This is why there’s a been a 380% jump in price reductions in the Toronto market in the last thirty days. A lot of folks bought houses firm before they sold theirs (a really, really bad move) and are now desperate to find a purchaser. Scores of investors trying to carry houses with negative cash flow and 100% financing are freaking and selling. Days-on-market has exploded from two to 29, and growing fast. Listings are up 221% in a month while sales are down by a quarter. The average selling-price-per-square foot is lower by 50%.

Says Robert Kavcic, BMO’s housing economist: “So, the era of excess demand is now behind us. It was an acute bout of excess demand driven by some work/lifestyle changes, deeply negative real interest rates, and old-fashioned market psychology. How quickly things change.”

Real estate crashes are not like equity bear markets. They’re more painful, thanks to debt and leverage. They’re emotionally distressing as the asset turns illiquid, unlike a stock or fund. They take more time to bottom and far longer (years) to recover. And coming after a period of wild, senseless, erotic excess, scads of vulnerable, naïve, inexperienced people swirl in the vortex.

This should never have been allowed to happen. Yet governments are still trying to prime the pump, as Chrystia did yesterday.

Find a helmet.

About the picture: “Our little girl Bailey,” writes Michelle. “She loved the car. Had the pleasure of her company for 17 years. I am a daily blog reader, and told you before our our real estate experience. We lost a ton in 1989 when buyers walked on day of closing. Took us years to recoup money lost reselling at much lower price and giving them our “cheap” 14% mortgage to flog the house.”

152 comments ↓

#1 millmech on 06.17.22 at 2:01 pm

We can all be wealthy with real estate, no bubble here!
https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/vdokhk/the_big_short_2_trailer_just_dropped/

#2 THE DANDADA on 06.17.22 at 2:04 pm

Beanie babies, Bitcoin, or share of Berkshire Hathway

Buy Low…. Sell High

That’s how winning is done.

#3 Daveyboy on 06.17.22 at 2:10 pm

I rent a house in Beaverton ,Oregon . It’s now 4300 a month to buy it ,with 20 percent down. I rent the place for 2750.

There has been a ton of price reductions in my area . Things are starting to changer here too.

#4 Arctic Gringo: Qalunaaq on 06.17.22 at 2:14 pm

The Audi Index:

One thousand eight hundred and thirty one 2017 to 2022 model year Audi’s for sale in the Greater Golden Horseshoe at this hour.

I say the Audi Index will match SP500 by July 14th.

#5 Big Bucks on 06.17.22 at 2:14 pm

The TSX was at 15,000 in June 2008(14 years ago) and now we’re at 18 and change.30% in 14 years ain’t much but I guess it’s better than the FTSE(flat for over 20 years)and the NIkkei(35% lower than 32 years ago)Who knows where the Dow ends up by year end but 25,000 is certainly doable.RE has been the best investment by far over the last 25 years and you get to live in it.

#6 Blobby on 06.17.22 at 2:15 pm

What did Chrystia do yesterday? Everything she said sounded like a nothing burger to me? What did I miss?

#7 Big Bucks on 06.17.22 at 2:17 pm

Sorry that’s 20% higher for the TSX over 14 years!!

#8 WFH Forever on 06.17.22 at 2:20 pm

I’d like to see some stats, or even anecdotal evidence, that WFH is coming to an end rather than you just saying it over and over, as that doesn’t make it so.

I’m working 2 IT contracts now in 2 different provinces, and both have no intentions of ending WFH when covid ends. These 2 organizations just like it better. In the meantime, rents got so bad in Kelowna I came to the Bahamas for the summer. It costs *almost* the same to rent a airbnb for the month (with my own private talcum beach) than it does to rent a crappy place in Kelowna, so I’m currently taking advantage. Hopefully rents come down in BC by the fall, but I’m not holding my breath. Apparently rent increases there are bound to the CPI which is going nuts. Vancouver is about to get just a little more unaffordable to renters. How people survive there – or anywhere in Canada these days – is beyond me.

Go downtown. Look around. – Garth

#9 hwy_str on 06.17.22 at 2:20 pm

>> Crypto is doomed. Not blockchain technology, which is a solid move forward

Blockchain is a toast as well. It is inefficient and does not solve any problem that cannot be solved without it. (saying as a software guy with 15+ yrs in the industry)

#10 Sail Away on 06.17.22 at 2:22 pm

“Financial assets – like equities, bonds, trusts, preferreds and the funds holding them – have been sideswiped as CBs finally find the spine to address inflation. It’s too late to sell, too dumb to turn paper losses into a real ones.”

——–

Correct. Everybody gets caught in a downturn. Just accept it. Never sell at a low.

Luckily… it’s not too late to buy. Today being a nice sunny day, I’ve taken that as an auspicious omen, and added to our Heloc borrow-to-invest portfolio.

#11 Squire on 06.17.22 at 2:26 pm

Madness !

#12 Brett in Calgary on 06.17.22 at 2:28 pm

Oil & gas just went on sale and the quarterly divvies are going to be tasty. ;-)

#13 crowdedelevatorfartz on 06.17.22 at 2:33 pm

Lawyers and Trustees in Bankruptcy are going to be very very busy in the next 2 years.

#14 Adam on 06.17.22 at 2:36 pm

Kelowna is an absolute mess. I know a realtor who works there and they say there’s deals collapsing all over the place due to appraisals coming in lower, or people just backing out entirely. Anyone who knows anything about Kelowna could have told you this was coming. Prices reached pure insanity there, comparable to the worst bunnypatch houses in Ontario. Now, the pain will be so much worse than what Vancouver will see because of the greed. I would not be surprised to see a 50% drop from peak in places like Kelowna when this is all said and done. Pity the person who bought at peak, for they are the true greater fool.

#15 None on 06.17.22 at 2:37 pm

For a dog-blog themed blog being anti-Harry styles is very inconsistent.

Observe: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KL4kcGiqWmw

#16 The West on 06.17.22 at 2:38 pm

Chrystia’s address to the “Empire Club” (brought to you by the banks) was unbelievable to take in.

Unbelievable.

#17 dave on 06.17.22 at 2:41 pm

Once the war in Ukraine is done….Ukraine will belong in some form to Russia.

Russia will control food and energy to EU.

EU is planning to cut tie and hit with sanctions. Does this mean extremely high Oil and Gas costs loooong term? Which equals high inflation and thus high interest rates for long ter?

#18 Richard L on 06.17.22 at 2:44 pm

Very good post today Garth.

It is beyond belief that the Federal Governments answer to inflation is to give people more money to spend.

#19 Ponzius Pilatus on 06.17.22 at 2:50 pm

100 DON on 06.17.22 at 12:24 pm
#98 crowdedelevatorfartz on 06.17.22 at 11:42 am
” Demand Destruction”
The catchy term all the Economists are over using for obscenely high fuel prices.
https://www.ctvnews.ca/business/when-could-demand-destruction-trigger-gas-price-relief-1.5951145
And the Media, of course, will flog this term to death over the next two years.
Shoot me now.
***********
Had the same thought. I would be surprised if demand decrease till after summer.
With employment numbers still positive. I plan on driving more in July.
———————————
“Demand destruction” just another buzzword for inflation flushing out excess appropriation of capital in outdated or unessential technology or products.
See also “substitution effect”, i.e. selling your F-150 and taking public transit, or buying a more fuel efficient car.

#20 Warren-the-lagging_indicator on 06.17.22 at 2:52 pm

It sounded more like she was accepting her Academy award or something. Poloz was somewhat comforting to the economic worrywarts though. I include myself in there… well at least my big toe.

#21 Victor Llearna on 06.17.22 at 2:53 pm

Hopefully the sheep will learn their lesson this time and stop buying over priced housing. Same Lesson USA sheep learned during credit crisis. Makes no sense that houses in Canada cost double what they do in USA. Salaries are higher there too.

#22 Linda on 06.17.22 at 3:04 pm

‘Rz’ – read your comment. About the FHSA, how is that different from allowing folks to plunder their RRSP’s to pay for the RE they want to purchase? RRSP’s allow folks to collect a refund, plus grow tax free in the account until withdrawal. I’d have to check, but I think if using those funds to buy RE one doesn’t pay tax on the withdrawal either. The only caveat is that the funds must be paid back over a 15 year period. If not paid back then I believe the withdrawal is added to one’s income & taxes apply. I don’t know if they prorate the withdrawal taxes owing or not, but expect if one didn’t buy RE in the first place the tax hit would be on the entire amount in the year it was withdrawn.

Anyway, as I noted in an earlier post, if folks can’t manage to cough up $6K for a TFSA, have difficulty believing they’d suddenly be able to find $8K for a FHSA. For those who qualify to open one & have the cash it is one sweet deal, but in the end seems to me that it is very similar to the RRSP deal that already exists.

#23 Søren Angst on 06.17.22 at 3:05 pm

Nov 10, 2021

$2.962 Trillion USD

June 17, 2022

$0.894 Trillion USD
[18:05 UTC +2]

219 days.

——————-

Total Cryptocurrency Market Cap

https://coinmarketcap.com/charts/

Angst that even Søren Kierkegaard would be envious of.

#24 Soviet Capitalist on 06.17.22 at 3:05 pm

Very good blog post today.

I mostly agree with it, except for the Putin’s war winding down.
The guy is not getting any younger and my gut feeling tells me he’s going to go for his dream or rebuilding USSR (called the Eurasian project) in full force. One will have to shoot him to stop him.

#25 Philco on 06.17.22 at 3:12 pm

Thanks for the writeup. Peeps weren’t thinking what’s new?

I had to share this awesome video as I knew this and someone should tell T2 Mr. clueless.
EV’s are no good YET. Hybrids are the way now.
EV’s are no good -20c especially.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=S1E8SQde5rk

The green movement by T2 has exacerbated inflation as fuel is a key factor in the the equation. Now your paying for the consequent’s of these ignorant policy’s. Brain dead people are in power.

#26 Bob on 06.17.22 at 3:14 pm

Another day, another Derek. Do the sellers really think the buyer has a million plus sitting around to pay them? They’ll go through all the time and expense of getting a judgement only to have the would-be buyer declare bankruptcy. The greed and foolishness is unconscionable. A pox on all of them.

#27 TurnerNation on 06.17.22 at 3:17 pm

We are Blog Dogs and we are legion.

– The Middle Class was a quaint post-WW2 marketing creation.
It was ended that cold week in March 2020. Few realized it. I did.
What followed was a manufactured debt orgy, to suck in as many debt slaves as possible.
‘Now you’se can’t leave’.
In the 1990s a single income, was enough. Now even two will barely cut it.
(Shall we bring back child labour, debtors prisons??)


— The future. Told you guys this ain’t over. Unlimited power is…unlimited.
PS Kanada signed deals for doses into 2024-25. You just know it.

https://montrealgazette.com/news/local-news/covid-19-vaccine-passports-could-be-reintroduced-this-autumn-feds-say

#28 Philco on 06.17.22 at 3:18 pm

This too. Nuke is the only option and SAFE! Just stupid Chernobyl cheeped out and Japan built on a fault. Bad decisions. New phonemical technology makes it very safe.
Also ICE engines are WAAAAAY more efficient and clean then the past. You have been sold a load of crap from the powers that be. SAD.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=N-yALPEpV4w

#29 Søren Angst on 06.17.22 at 3:18 pm

Yup, even I’m getting whacked.

3:09 PM UTC-4 (day not done yet).

Threadbare Portfolio Time-Weighted Return:

+13.2%

Was 16% a few days ago. A few days before that 17%.

————–

Starting to read like the KMart of old…

Attention shoppers, our Mr. Market Dept. discounting your portfolio at +1% every couple of days.

So, hurry up and buy as we will be out of “stock” in 26.4 days.

#30 Philco on 06.17.22 at 3:21 pm

phonmenal
lol

#31 Woke Guy on 06.17.22 at 3:27 pm

El-Erian is actually in Cambridge and not NY based – just my 2 cents

#32 Søren Angst on 06.17.22 at 3:28 pm

That was

YTD Time-Weighted Return

prior Comment.

Not that it really matters anymore.

#33 TurnerNation on 06.17.22 at 3:30 pm

We pay high taxes for all the amazing stuff we get!
Life in Kanada:
You want to get to a hospital asap? Call a taxi. Faster.
You actually want to live? Call a private plane, get to USA hospital.

.Ontario health-care workers sound alarm over ‘absolutely horrific’ hospital demand (globalnews.ca)

.Backlogged justice system can’t return to pre-pandemic ways, chief justice warns (ctvnews.ca)


— The future in the Former First World Countries. Economic and Social Lockdowns are PERMANENT.
If you haven’t caught on, already,

https://amp.dw.com/en/german-health-minister-hints-at-stricter-winter-covid-rules/a-62168610
“German Health Minister Karl Lauterbach has recommended the voluntary wearing of masks in indoor public spaces amid a summer wave of infections. He also indicated that stricter rules are likely on their way.”

— Climate Lockdowns. We were trained on this, the whole point of it all.
BTW this policy especially is racist toward those from very hot climes, and used it it all.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-61838543
“In Gironde, officials said public events, including some of the official 18 June Resistance celebrations, will be prohibited from Friday at 14:00 (12:00 GMT) “until the end of the heat wave”. Indoor events at venues without air-conditioning are also banned.
Private celebrations, such as weddings, will still be allowed.
“Everyone now faces a health risk”, local official Fabienne Buccio told France Bleu radio.

#34 Overheardyou on 06.17.22 at 3:35 pm

Listings up 200%+ in June, going to be a long summer for some people…hopefully the weather’s nice

#35 DON on 06.17.22 at 3:38 pm

#16 The West on 06.17.22 at 2:38 pm
Chrystia’s address to the “Empire Club” (brought to you by the banks) was unbelievable to take in.

Unbelievable.

*****
I had the same thought…a lot of talking with no real substance other than the pillars to help with inflation. I understood the french parts better.

#36 WTF on 06.17.22 at 3:40 pm

Wrong GT.

Clearly your data is flawed as it is based on real life examples. So Paleo.

On the other hand, CREA. AKA house Pumping/self serving/housing dependent/ O legal blowback for being a shameless organization solely for their fee paying members “predicts” price increases in 2022/23

https://ca.news.yahoo.com/crea-updates-resale-housing-market-130000066.html

Not to be outdone the Delusional, or cough….. calculated shysters in BCREA continue the fiction.

https://vancouver.citynews.ca/2021/05/05/bcrea-2022-projections/

Grifters gonna grift cause that’s what they do. Spin Spin……………dont they get dizzy?

#37 Søren Angst on 06.17.22 at 3:44 pm

Elon having a bad hair week.

SpaceX, fired a group of employees who circulated an internal letter that reportedly denounced the CEO and founder as a “distraction and embarrassment.”

I’d say that was being kind.

That “Super bad feeling” is in his own backyard.

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/06/17/elon-musk-had-a-bad-week-at-tesla-spacex-and-twitter.html

His latest TWTR horse manure is that he wants at least 1 billion daily users. Snake Island meme appropriate here:

Elon Musk, go copulate yourself.

#38 millmech on 06.17.22 at 3:46 pm

Magenta has stopped issuing new mortgages until September, I guess with rates going up a another 1.25%-1.5% it will be better pickings with a more motivated client base.
Dividend is paid monthly and the annual dividend is over 6% so will be watching this one this fall to maybe add to the portfolio.

#39 Sail Away on 06.17.22 at 3:47 pm

Hey, in these troubled times, why not buy yourself a bank? Garth did. And we can put up a giant flag on July 4!

Anyone want to go half-sies?

https://www.landwatch.com/mcpherson-county-south-dakota-recreational-property-for-sale/pid/413573445

#40 Garth of Izar on 06.17.22 at 3:54 pm

Crash incoming. I got a bag of nickels to toss at homeless housing speculators. One nickel each.

https://www.zerohedge.com/economics/housing-crash-imminent-mortgage-rates-explode-price-cuts-soar-and-buyer-demand-collapses

#41 alexinvestor on 06.17.22 at 3:54 pm

Everyone is hiding in the US dollar. But eventually they will have to come out to play, since money burns a hole in the pocket. One either buys bonds or equities, and I suspect that US equities will be the play with rising rates.

#42 Parksville Prankster on 06.17.22 at 3:55 pm

Mean while, steady as she goes here in Parksville on the Island. Folks still expecting 450K to 600K for 40 year old trailers. The retirement capital of Canada, where people are rich and require no mortgages … or so they say.

https://listings.vireb.com/listing/20e4l?g=14#!gallery

#43 Daniel on 06.17.22 at 3:57 pm

So you don’t think equities trade on sentiment, only real estate? You are not paying attention. Sentiment plays just as important role in equities as it does with crypto.

Emotion, not sentiment. – Garth

#44 NOSTRADAMUS on 06.17.22 at 3:59 pm

666. AND CARRYING WATER FOR THE DEVIL.
Those who danced with the devil and took out huge mortgages only to find the housing market is crashing will come to the conclusion that the number on their house has been changed to read “666” The devil now owns you, and you will bend to his will- hello, fraud, deceit, anything goes when the devil calls.
On a more sobering note, banks are leaning on the appraisers to come in light. This is how banks deal with their exposure. It’s quiet, effective and definitive. And it’s helping cripple the real estate market. Meanwhile the banks regulator, OSFI, is planning on showing up to shoot the overindebted (wounded) with eye watering stress tests. Just like weightlifting or bobsledding, everyone has to pee in a jar (so to speak) with “No Exceptions”.
The moment I realized that I didn’t care about potential threats made by an employer, I new I was untouchable. It’s a fantastic feeling, something debt slaves will never experience. Steady lads, hold the line.

#45 The Regulator on 06.17.22 at 4:04 pm

Meanwhile, in Germany : Klaus Mullen, head of Germany’s Federal Network Agency, which is the regulatory office for electricity, gas, telecommunications, postal services, and railway markets said : “A gas shortage and high prices will send shockwaves through the country, leading to landlords cutting the heat for tenants and widespread company bankruptcies”. Not good. Mabey Siemens (a German company), should demand Canada release vital Nordstream 1 compressor components now held in Montreal by Canadian sanctions?

Trollski. – Garth

#46 mitzerboyakaQueencitykidd on 06.17.22 at 4:08 pm

Dogs are Great
beer is good

people are crazy
it’s friday I’m in luv

#47 Caffeine Monkey on 06.17.22 at 4:09 pm

“blockchain technology, which is a solid move forward,”
—–
Serious technologists and Caffeine Monkey disagree. Blockchain is an old and flawed idea rebranded by VCs and people with something to sell.

From a letter signed by serious tech heavyweights:

“By its very design, blockchain technology is poorly suited for just about every purpose currently touted as a present or potential source of public benefit. From its inception, this technology has been a solution in search of a problem and has now latched onto concepts such as financial inclusion and data transparency to justify its existence, despite far better solutions to these issues already in use. Despite more than thirteen years of development, it has severe limitations and design flaws that preclude almost all applications that deal with public customer data and regulated financial transactions and are not an improvement on existing non-blockchain solutions.”

https://concerned.tech/

#48 The Regulator on 06.17.22 at 4:15 pm

In jolly old Great Britain 40,000 rail workers are set to strike. That’s not good. Also, Russian gas flows to European clients have plummeted to their lowest levels since 2014, while gas supplies to China have increased 67% in the first 5 months of this year. So that gas will never return to Europe. oh well. Finally, Gazprom signed a contract to design the Soyuz Vostock pipeline across Mongolia toward China. It will carry as much as 50 billion cubic meters of natural gas per year to China. Tick tock….

#49 Game Warden on 06.17.22 at 4:17 pm

#39 Sail Away:

Hey, in these troubled times, why not buy yourself a bank? Garth did. And we can put up a giant flag on July 4!

Anyone want to go half-sies?

https://www.landwatch.com/mcpherson-county-south-dakota-recreational-property-for-sale/pid/413573445

I’m in…

#50 Philco on 06.17.22 at 4:18 pm

DELETED

#51 Tester on 06.17.22 at 4:19 pm

“The property made headlines four months ago when it fetched $2.275 million…. So the inevitable appears to have happened. The buyer balked, and walked. The closing scheduled for May never happened, and a law suit is pending. The original owners have now put it back on the market, at $1.499 million, and will be lucky to see that”.

Sage wisdom from an old owl…

If you are in this situation as a seller, relist for the ORIGINAL selling price that walked away. You will obviously have to lower the price soon, but a judge will side with you if you tried to get the original ask.

On another note, a buyer that walks away is an idiot that has a crap agent. He/she will end up having to pay the difference plus court costs for the seller. And no, you can’t pay in Bitcoin. Once in a while we need this to cull the herd. Some of the inferiors just got too g** d*** greedy.

#52 baloney Sandwitch on 06.17.22 at 4:22 pm

Great topic today, Garth – about buyer’s remorse and emotions.

I don’t know if you are following the saga of Twitter vs. Musk. One of my side gig’s is merger arbitrage. Musk is having buyer’s remorse about buying Twitter at $54 a share. Currently Twitter is trading at a 30% discount price. There for the the taking if you have some cojones. Here is my spreadsheet for the dogs who are interested.
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1MSfEQRESHaV2MflSscSO3C_i9aW9zcLBtyvRIxJbrhs/edit?usp=sharing

#53 Felix on 06.17.22 at 4:24 pm

Happy Feline Friday!

Did you know:

A cat’s average lifespan increased by a year over the span of time between 2002 and 2012, according to a study by Banfield Pet Hospital.

This was largely in response to the well deserved respect being shown by powerful world leaders to superior felines at the time, which spread throughout the world.

President George W Bush was a well-known cat lover.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/India_(cat)

Prime Minister Stephen Harper also had great affection for felines, and was known to suspend and turf out any caucus members who were dogawful mutt lovers and he would appropriately speak to each of them as if they were a petulant, useless, idiot child.

https://www.ctvnews.ca/politics/harper-family-leaving-ottawa-with-cats-chinchilla-1.2633661

#54 The Regulator on 06.17.22 at 4:27 pm

Europe’s reliance upon Russian oil and gas, and subsequent embargos on its own energy supplies in an effort to sanction Russia, is backfiring on Europe. Europe is cutting it’s own throat economically. Insane. Why isn’t Canada selling more oil and gas to Europe? Aren’t we allies? Mabey dil-bit don’t work too well in refineries tuned to Ural? And no, we don’t have any Lng facilities to export gas. I wonder why?

#55 Earlybird on 06.17.22 at 4:29 pm

#31 Woke guy
El Erian is actually in Cambridge not NY based…thats my 2 cents.
That’s 4 cents with inflation….lol…

His statement is the most level headed thing I have read in awhile out in media la la land! Lets hope this will be the way forward.
And as always …here…on this blog…on the upper deck…

#56 Eco Capitalist on 06.17.22 at 4:30 pm

Are the Roaring Twenties on hold, or cancelled?

Eight years left. Hang on. – Garth

#57 Sail Away on 06.17.22 at 4:31 pm

#52 baloney Sandwitch on 06.17.22 at 4:22 pm

Re: arbitrage

——

Thanks! Similar to my arbitrage tracker.

But I don’t see Activision in yours? +27% upside over the next 12 months.

#58 Millennial 1%er on 06.17.22 at 4:32 pm

Good. Let it all burn.

I want there to be blood in the streets. I want there to be no survivors left.

#59 The Regulator on 06.17.22 at 4:33 pm

All in all, the western circular firing squad gang is locked and loaded. God help us all. The little people will suffer, while our masters dither and deflect. Sad.

#60 The Regulator on 06.17.22 at 4:37 pm

# 53 – Felix : Using Dubya and the robot with nice hair to win support is negligible.

#61 Tmac on 06.17.22 at 4:44 pm

and this is why I tell people out of my near 7 figure B&D portfolio only $500 was crypto.
The big number is real stuff, the $500 bucks is a lets see what this does gamble.
Unfortunate that many people have confused the two.

#62 Bitcoin Bro on 06.17.22 at 4:52 pm

#47 Caffeine Monkey on 06.17.22 at 4:09 pm

Dweebs can write letters all they want… the free market has spoken on this. Do you think JP Morgan and it’s formerly staunch anti-crypto, anti-blockchain CEO would be pumping billions of dollars into this space if the technology wasn’t promising?

Put Bitcoin aside. All the other cryptos (vast majority of them garbage) aside. Stablecoins are operating as an incredible economic lifeline for millions of people in developing nations TODAY.

There are dragons and risk in some of the popular stablecoins today to be sure but regulation over time will correct this. If you are a Turk given the choice to have cash at your local bank, cash under your mattress, or take your own custody of one of the US dollar stablecoins, secured by the powerful encryption systems that are part of the blockchain, that you can “bank” anywhere with… the choice is obvious.

#63 DR on 06.17.22 at 4:53 pm

#16 Chrystia Freeland talks to people like a kindergarten teacher. When she talks about financial topics it’s hilarious to watch. Her slow calm force is so so creepy and scary. I would have loved to have seen the bankers faces of OMG she is in control of Canadas finances. LMAO. But come to think of it we do have a Drama teacher as the PM. Ouch.

#64 The Original Jake on 06.17.22 at 4:54 pm

Sold the family home this month (GTA). Went quick but the buyers can feel the wind of change is moving to their direction.

Offer night had 4 bids all of whom came back on their second offer at not a cent higher. Basically, take it or leave it. We took it and are happy to get out.

From the data I track, the listing to sales average is ridiculously high and increasing. Homes have been taken off the market and I suspect they will come back in the Fall as the sellers think the storm will be over. We’ll see if in the face of rising rates it’s different this time… or not.

#65 rj on 06.17.22 at 5:01 pm

Nice to see you disambiguate ‘crypto’ and ‘blockchain’. The words are too often used synonymously and the differences are poorly understood by the masses.

(that said, i’m still holding 1-5% btc in my portfolio. happy friday!)

#66 WTF on 06.17.22 at 5:11 pm

45,48,54,59 Ivan the Dim

The subject at hand is Finance and RE here in Canada.

Perhaps join the Ukraine Army and use your prodigious literary talents to keep us informed from the frontline instead of your basement. Well, once you learn punctuation, spelling, and grammar.

My scroll finger is sore

#67 Squire on 06.17.22 at 5:17 pm

#58 Millennial 1%er on 06.17.22 at 4:32 pm
Good. Let it all burn.

I want there to be blood in the streets. I want there to be no survivors left.
——————–
No one escapes the fire and brimstone, not even you fledgling :\

#68 crowdedelevatorfartz on 06.17.22 at 5:20 pm

@#24 Soviet kapitalista
“One will have to shoot him to stop him.”
+++
Poisoning unwanted leaders/ dissidents/ spies seems the Russian way.
A faux heart attack allows deniability.

#69 crowdedelevatorfartz on 06.17.22 at 5:23 pm

@#58 Millennial One Cent
“Good. Let it all burn.
I want there to be blood in the streets. I want there to be no survivors left.

+++
Ah yes.
The Chaos cheerleader.
Until you’re in the pot and the cannibals can’t wait until you’re done.

#70 Shawn on 06.17.22 at 5:28 pm

Psst. want to Buy a bank?

#39 Sail Away on 06.17.22 at 3:47 pm
Hey, in these troubled times, why not buy yourself a bank? Garth did. And we can put up a giant flag on July 4!

***************************************
Or buy into an actual operating simple deposit and lending back at 78 cents on the dollar of book value.

Canadian Western Bank

That’s going to work out well unless we in for a mother of a recession.

Trading at 78% of book value suggests maybe big loan losses ahead. Instead the likely scenario is that loans get paid back quicker than hoped due to the flood of cash in Alberta at this time. But do keep in mind that only a third of its operations are in Alberta. And they are projecting an earnings decline this year versus last year.

Point is, this bank is on sale.

#71 Shawn on 06.17.22 at 5:29 pm

Crypto Currency?

Crypto currencies have lived up to the first part of their name, but not the second.

#72 MD on 06.17.22 at 5:31 pm

FED goes to 3.5 than expect S&P to close at 2300.
BOC goes to 3.5 than we will go back to 4-5 times household income for average house prices in whichever city you live. Book the date just to remind me if I am wrong :). Only condition is the magic number 3.5

#73 Victor V on 06.17.22 at 5:31 pm

Distressed deals pile up in Canada’s once-booming housing market

https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/distressed-deals-pile-up-in-canada-s-once-booming-housing-market-1.1780269

Zohal Habibi hadn’t even moved into her new home in the suburbs of Toronto when she started regretting the purchase. “We took a very bad decision,” she says.

It’s not about the house itself. She and her husband are excited about the extra space it’ll give them and their two young kids. The problem is the price they agreed to pay for the three-bedroom home in March: $920,000 (US$711,000).

Not long after, prices started to slide, and quickly. By the time their lender got around to appraising the house in May, it marked the value down to $800,000. A second appraisal a few weeks later was even grimmer — $740,000.

Legally bound to the deal but no longer able to obtain a big enough loan to go through with it, the couple pleaded with the seller to nudge down the price. On Thursday, they closed at $810,000. “We didn’t know that the market would crash,” Habibi says.

#74 Philco on 06.17.22 at 5:38 pm

#54 The Regulator on 06.17.22 at 4:27 pm
———–
Cause T2 killed Alberta and hates our energy sector.
The cleanest most responsible in the world.
2 years ago Natgas $1.50 hit $9 now $7….more food inflation.

#75 Ponzius Pilatus on 06.17.22 at 5:42 pm

#21 Victor Llearna on 06.17.22 at 2:53 pm
Hopefully the sheep will learn their lesson this time and stop buying over priced housing. Same Lesson USA sheep learned during credit crisis. Makes no sense that houses in Canada cost double what they do in USA. Salaries are higher there too.
—————
Makes lots of sense.
Life insurance, funeral expenses & Healthcare take a much higher chunk out of the paycheck than in Canada.
And the cost of ammunition adds up quickly.
And body quards are not cheap.

#76 Sam on 06.17.22 at 5:44 pm

Rumor is, amorizations going to 40 years to support the home owners. Can you shed some light on this?

#77 Quintilian on 06.17.22 at 5:44 pm

“And coming after a period of wild, senseless, erotic excess, scads of vulnerable, naïve, inexperienced people swirl in the vortex.”

People invested in the stock exchange are in the same sinking wreck.
Financial experts that may be totally honest, trained in business and economics and may well have the best intentions and interest of their clients at heart.

However, like highly skilled safe defensive drivers, they are on the same treacherous road as the reckless and drunken amateurs.

Not exactly. First, people do not buy equities with 20x leverage. Second, stocks are liquid. Third, kiddos buying meme stocks based on a suggestion from some Twitter dude have only one person to blame. No advisors were involved. – Garth

#78 Philco on 06.17.22 at 5:45 pm

That was US contract. Natgas $4.50 here in Kanada.

#79 robert james on 06.17.22 at 5:46 pm

4 Adam on 06.17.22 at 2:36 pm Kelowna is overrated .. Move to the Island as opposed to Kelowna.. The Okanagan is semi arid which means forest fires , ( we have our pictures and valuables backed up and ready to go with in a 15 minute warning),,, smoke so bad you cannot see across the lake,,, traffic that is really bad and only gets worse,, and of course the crime..

#80 Ponzius Pilatus on 06.17.22 at 5:47 pm

CEF,
Russia is one of the largest exporters of rare gases used in computer chips.
Apparently, it’s restricting exports of these gases to unfriendly countries like Canada.
Can you step in and help out?

#81 Reality is stark on 06.17.22 at 5:56 pm

You can sue all you want.
I’m sure the derelict buyer’s divorce is all but finalized.
She’s already gone so you won’t get any money out of her, she’s not sticking around with a guy who is $800,000 in the hole.
Sorry but the social justice warrior generation is not about accountability.
When the market turns that is when you find out that the patriarchy is abusive. A convenient truth.
Never succumb to someone who desperately wants a home in an overpriced market, walk away knowing you can do better.
Let them want on someone else’s time.

#82 Dogs Not Barking on 06.17.22 at 5:57 pm

I spoke with a friend who works at a fertilizer plant. Farmers are using a small fraction of the fertilizer that they normally use. Some are even seeding without fertilizer.

This will translate into very reduced yields. Possibly as little as 1/3 of normal. Food shortages are a very real possibility.

Without fertilizer, we’ll all get to see the downside of organic farming, whether we want to or not.

Why is it that every woke-progressive idea, from organic farming to electric cars to green energy ends up being a luxury item to service the elites, paid to the few by the many??

Next up is food. Prepare to cut back massively so that the elites can feast at $1000 plate dinners in the Empire Club or enjoy $3000 per person in flight food service as part of the GG’s entourage, or $1000 per person in flight food service as part of Trudeau’s entourage… or….

#83 Dan Rhodes on 06.17.22 at 5:57 pm

Jerome Powell just announced the Fed will be moving towards CBDC’s(not crypto-centrally controlled). Crypto is not going anywhere. (#9 hwy_str) 15 years in programming has not taught you anything OR your stoopid- YOUR FOS. Do you even know what blockchain is??? $link not called the GOD protocol for nothing.
Truth > Trust

#84 Ponzius Pilatus on 06.17.22 at 6:01 pm

#39 Sail Away on 06.17.22 at 3:47 pm
Hey, in these troubled times, why not buy yourself a bank? Garth did. And we can put up a giant flag on July 4!

Anyone want to go half-sies?

https://www.landwatch.com/mcpherson-county-south-dakota-recreational-property-for-sale/pid/413573445
————–
You should stop pushing Southern States RE.
The region will soon be mostly uninhabitable.
Droughts, power outages , floods, hurricanes, all the biblical pests.
Pennies to the dollar.
About 20 degrees here in the Lower Rainland.
And all the water we can drink.
Heaven.

#85 The Regulator on 06.17.22 at 6:22 pm

# 66 – WTF : Typical mudslinging from an uninformed troll. Of course, the world revolves around smug Canaduh. As usual, not one attempt to disprove anything I said. If you persist with the childish wah wah talk, I will smite you further. NEXT….

#86 The Regulator on 06.17.22 at 6:32 pm

DELETED (Abusive)

#87 JSS on 06.17.22 at 6:39 pm

“Crypto coins some guy in a Def Leppard T-shirt dreamed up ”

I have a Def Leppard hysteria t-shirt from 1989. The cotton is very worn out and feels wonderful. When I put out the garbage on the street on Wednesdays, my neighbours across the street give me the horn sign.

I also have a record from them called Pyromania.

Anyway, back to regular programming…

#88 JSS on 06.17.22 at 6:41 pm

“#76 Sam on 06.17.22 at 5:44 pm
Rumor is, amorizations going to 40 years to support the home owners. Can you shed some light on this?”

I believe I mentioned this might happen about 10 moons ago.

#89 yvr_lurker on 06.17.22 at 6:46 pm

Hopefully those investors who over-leveraged to buy additional properties to rent out or to simply hold in anticipation of further price increases are whacked into the ground watching their equity sink like a stone.

For a family who bought in the past few years in a good neighbourhood, I think they have less to worry about if they can handle the higher payments at renewal time. They can weather the storm, and prices will not decline as much in the urban core (as garth’s data has shown). Within a relatively short period (say 5 years) prices will be back up due to the huge number of expected immigrants. The danger will be if this all triggers a major recession with large job losses in the next year or so. This is when the blood will flow in the street, and people will be forced to sell at much lower prices. It is only when you have to sell that a paper loss is realized.

#90 Sail Away on 06.17.22 at 6:50 pm

#84 Ponzius Pilatus on 06.17.22 at 6:01 pm
#39 Sail Away on 06.17.22 at 3:47 pm

Re: SD bank

——–

You should stop pushing Southern States RE.
The region will soon be mostly uninhabitable.
Droughts, power outages , floods, hurricanes, all the biblical pests.
Pennies to the dollar.
About 20 degrees here in the Lower Rainland.
And all the water we can drink.
Heaven.

——–

Biblical is right. I’ve seen your kind on the corners for 50 years with ‘The End is Near! Repent!’ signs.

But let’s go with geological. As in geologic time scale. Even if the worst of the worst of all climatic panic and hyperbole were to actually ensue, the US midwest will be fully human habitable for thousands of years.

You, me and Methuselah (bringing it back to biblical) can witness it.

#91 Faron on 06.17.22 at 6:50 pm

#62 Bitcoin Bro on 06.17.22 at 4:52 pm
#47 Caffeine Monkey on 06.17.22 at 4:09 pm

Hey, if you are lucky, your chosen crypto exchange may not have walked off with your “coins” while you weren’t looking at the T+C.

Or you may luck out and the tsunami taking Celsius, 3AC, Babel, (grayscale) and others down of late will stop before it causes a full-on liquidity crisis.

Or, you may luck out and not have USDT’s peg slip into oblivion because it failed to disclose its commercial paper and now that paper is worthless.

I’ve been watching USDT/USD closely this week and will continue to do so for the LOLs.

#92 crowdedelevatorfartz on 06.17.22 at 7:04 pm

@#77 Quinty’s Questionable qualities

So people who have purchased home recently are greaterfools.
People who invest in the markets are fools.
Gotcha.

What do you do with your money?
All us ignorant fools await your sage advice.
Or do you have any?

#93 islander on 06.17.22 at 7:06 pm

“The Empire Club has evolved over the years and strives to ensure diversity is reflected in topics, speakers, and its governance structures. The Club recognizes that over its 118-year history, there have been viewpoints expressed at its podium by speakers that perpetuated and reinforced colonial attitudes and oppression. These do not reflect the Club’s commitment to equity, inclusion and reconciliation.”

Oh thank God!
https://empireclubofcanada.com/our-history/

Nice choice of venue,Chrystia.

#94 Diamond Dog on 06.17.22 at 7:13 pm

I like El Erian. He’s sharp, a well educated economist that shoots straight. El Erian is a former CEO of PIMCO which under his tenure grew from 1 to 2 trillion in assets, did a stint with the IMF before PIMCO, readers can take in his bio here:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mohamed_A._El-Erian

When a better (easy to admit when it’s true, I bow down to his economic view) like El Erian speaks, I listen:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UUZBTEtGtp0

“You cannot ignore 8.6% inflation”. We couldn’t ignore 7% either but we did. Or even 5%. This is the big mistake that the markets themselves have made, to ignore inflation. (why have I been a bear?) Bubble mania right, no one wanted it to end but it’s never different this time. High inflation changes everything, it’s just of question of timing and the Fed is scary late.

The Fed is way late in reacting to inflation, the most realistic motive from the Fed to slow roll its reaction to inflation is political and the U.S. and by proxy the world, is paying the price (Russia or China? Try looking at the U.S. influence on world commodities). Ugh.

#95 Yorkville Renter on 06.17.22 at 7:14 pm

by the talentless Harry Styles

no no… have you seen/heard his cover of Sledgehammer? It’s excellent! https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Tqm7-zN5s8k

#96 jim on 06.17.22 at 7:16 pm

Long overdue.

#97 Diamond Dog on 06.17.22 at 7:23 pm

#24 Soviet Capitalist on 06.17.22 at 3:05 pm

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/jun/10/putin-compares-himself-to-peter-the-great-in-quest-to-take-back-russian-lands

Did you read up on what Putin said a week ago? He has the mind of an imperialist, there’s no other way to put it. He believes his destiny is to either take over his neighbors or control them. It’s Soviet ideology through and through. There’s no recognition of sovereign states that separated in 1991. His words are words of an imperialist aggressor leader of a nation with a history steeped in imperialist aggressor behavior. Putin let his guard down, spoke his mind laid plain the mindset behind his true ambitions. (no offense to your moniker)

#98 Faron on 06.17.22 at 7:28 pm

While Sail Away is whining about some iffy hiring practice at one coffee shop that he doesn’t even patronize nor cared a day in his life about, this is a real, potentially violent threatened act occurring in Victoria.

Caffe Fantastico cancels drag shows after anonymous caller threatens physical violence

Caller threatened staff, said someone should “shoot up the place with anyone in it”

And the right/far right moans about cancel culture. Threatening to kill people you don’t like or agree with is real cancellation.

This is the extension of kvetching about preferentially hiring queer or non-white people and it’s disgusting and has no place in Canada.

#99 Faron on 06.17.22 at 7:33 pm

#85 The Regulator on 06.17.22 at 6:22 pm

not one attempt to disprove anything I said.

Why bother when almost everything you write is either patently false or so heavily coloured by your worldview as to be instantly discounted? You are even more of a joke and less welcome around here than I am for cripes sake. That’s saying something!

But, hey, how ’bout that Russian GDP number zerohedge just published on? LOL.

For those uninformed, the number is nominal 3% growth…

wait for it….

but the real inflation rate in mother Russia is north of 100% annual rate. Real GDP growth in the deeeeeeep negatives. LOL.

#100 The Hammer on 06.17.22 at 7:34 pm

Here is what us carpenters have to say about houses like the one pictured… “three car garage with attached house”, “garagemahal”, “suffers from roof acne”, “where is the front door?” Nothing like North American suburban architecture to suck the soul out of a place…

#101 Jennifer on 06.17.22 at 7:37 pm

Garth, Amen to what you just stated.

Perhaps we should repeat old Albertan regret, when there was a prayer that said” Please God give me another chance, this time I won’t screw up”. Well, they did again after price of oil peaked at $150/barrel in 2008. Alberta found itself broke once more. Hopefully Hydrogen will be the new oil for Alberta in the future.

So, there is a lesson here. Human nature is complex, it has short memory, and will always repeat it’s own mistakes over and over. History will guarantee that.

For that reason, promise yourself you are NOT going to follow the crowd. It will always be a matter of time before party ends, and you will be left with a big hang over. Restrain is your security blanket.

#102 Bitcoin Bro on 06.17.22 at 7:37 pm

#91 Faron on 06.17.22 at 6:50 pm

Not your keys, not your crypto. Use the crypto proto banks at your own risk. More to flush out for sure, I completely agree.

None of this means anything to the inevitability of blockchain financial systems in the same way the 2000 dot com bubble meant nothing to the long-term inevitability of the internet as we know it. Wall Street and Washington DC have capitulated. Positive regulatory frameworks are coming that will fuel the next bull market and invite more institutional money.

#103 Dotty on 06.17.22 at 7:51 pm

Are Canadian banks really insuring their full deposits that is the maximum $100,000 CDIC amount has not been increased since 2005. They are really only insuring a little above $70,000 because according the Bank of Canada CPI, the index was 105.3 in 2005 and is now 149.8, going by that calculation, it a 42.26% loss of purchasing power. This seems low to me but even using that it is $70,293 in today’s dollars real value and it is eroding quickly every day. I would think most people would agree that a 2.10% annual inflation rate in Canada compounded over 17 years is not the real inflation that most people experienced or paid from 2005 to 2022 present day. Even going by this number, $142,260 should be the real CDIC deposit insurance maximum today and I would say $150,000 would be a more realistic amount for 2022 to include the high inflation now.

#104 Faron on 06.17.22 at 7:53 pm

#90 Sail Away on 06.17.22 at 6:50 pm

the US midwest will be fully human habitable for thousands of years.

Unsurprisingly, utterly incorrect.

A definition of habitability might be that of a human being able to survive outside for more than an hour while doing moderate work (i.e. pursuing economic activity or leisure). That threshold is defined by humidity which is defined by dew point temperature.

When the dew point gets above 33 C, risk of death is very high under the above conditions even for fit individuals. We are no longer able to balance metabolic heat generation with cooling by sweat and will quickly succumb to heat stroke.

If we agree that the midwest looks like this

Then by 2100, parts of the midwest will see up to 10 such days. By 2200, that jumps to more than a month over much of the midwest. This includes eastern South Dakota.

under the worst-case scenario at the end of the next century, there would be the equivalent of a month every year when it would be dangerous to be outside, rendering the state (and other parts of the Midwest) all but uninhabitable during the summer.

In a “burn it all cowboy” scenario you don’t want to know what these maps look like.

And, of course, with all of the moisture and heat around flooding will be very very extreme.

Stay in your lane bro.

https://www.chicagomag.com/city-life/june-2017/climate-change-could-make-illinois-dangerously-hot/

#105 Quintilian on 06.17.22 at 7:59 pm

#92 crowdedelevatorfartz on 06.17.22 at 7:04 pm
“What do you do with your money?
All us ignorant fools await your sage advice.
Or do you have any?”

Crowdie,
Yeah I have money, but you won’t catch me bragging about it.
It’s not how I define my self-worth.

And I don’t think you are ignorant fools, just misguided.
But as a quick suggestion; do your research, and get into private equity.

Become an owner, not a gambler.

Consider the recent paradox/ events:

One day the big boards go up almost 1000 because the FED raised rates, the next day they drop by close to 1000 because the FED raised rates.

What principles of Finance or Economics were responsible?

#106 Dale on 06.17.22 at 8:21 pm

BigBucks, the TSX and alot of index investing since 2008 has been crappy. I averaged 3.65% with 5 year GICs. If you were to put it in terms of $15,000 in 2008, it would be worth $25,000 today compared to $18,980 TSX. By the way, look at bank CDIC deposit insurance went up 200% from 1967 to 1983 but only 67% from 1983 to 2005. There has not been an increase since 2005, 17 years now. The last increase took 22 years from 1983 to 2022.

I have no idea why in Ontario, credit unions can insured $250,000 maximum deposits but CDIC can only be $100,000. It is ridiculous.

#107 I don't know on 06.17.22 at 8:24 pm

“Real estate crashes are not like equity bear markets. They’re more painful, thanks to debt and leverage. They’re emotionally distressing as the asset turns illiquid, unlike a stock or fund. They take more time to bottom and far longer (years) to recover. And coming after a period of wild, senseless, erotic excess, scads of vulnerable, naïve, inexperienced people swirl in the vortex.”

-There won’t be a real estate crash, but yes, there are differences in the assets. The real estate market could slow down, but for people who are using their home as shelter to live in, lay down roots and raise a family, it really does not matter (which is the majority). Real estate does not have a green and red ticker revealing it’s value every day. Aside from its tangible use, this feature is a big advantage for people who can’t handle financial markets during downturns and naively think everything is going to zero (also the majority). The over-leveraged minority will pay, like usual, but so it goes in the financial markets as well.

People also don’t necessarily use real estate as a profit maker, as much as they use it as a store of wealth. There is a difference. From November to February demand was pushed forward as buyers smartly rushed to lock in low rates. It will catch up. As for individuals who were priced out before, the rate hikes are making affordability worse, not better.

As recently outlined by our host, the smart play was to purchase real estate and lock in generationally low rates, then pay off the asset in quickly devaluing dollars. Many dividends were/are paying well above what posted mortgage rates were 3 to 4 months ago, so having a balanced portfolio in tandem with real estate was -and still is- ideal. Once renewal comes up, that’s when debt is paid down.

The worst strategy of all? Holding junk (cash).

IDK

#108 westcoaster on 06.17.22 at 8:28 pm

A co-worker went through a divorce last year and didn’t want to “lose the house I grew up in” so she bought her ex out and took out a $600,000 + mortgage for a fixer upper in Abbotsford. She makes $65k. She says she won’t be able to afford it “if rates go up”.

Some friends of hers want to start a Go Fund Me so she can save the home she grew up in. I view it as a stupid choice on her part to not have sold and at least got some cash out. I have zero sympathy for her.

#109 Ed on 06.17.22 at 8:33 pm

Dogs are Great
beer is good

people are crazy

////////////////

I love this song…very timely ….Billy Currington

I doubt Junior or Marge listen to country though.

#110 Diamond Dog on 06.17.22 at 8:33 pm

#8 WFH Forever on 06.17.22 at 2:20 pm

One could argue IT is WFH “before” the pandemic hit.

#90 Sail Away on 06.17.22 at 6:50 pm

Have to disagree with that. If we lose Arctic sea ice in it’s entirety (beginning in late summer when it comes), large parts of the world we live on now will not so gradually become uninhabitable including large parts of the southern U.S. .

The fourth seal of Revelations speaking of one of the four horsemen, the pale horse, comes to mind. For those not well read, the four horsemen are a part of God’s influence on this planet and the pale horse is death Rev 6: 7-8:

“I looked, and behold, an [i]ashen horse; and he who sat on it had the name Death; and Hades was following with him. Authority was given to them over a fourth of the earth, to kill with sword and with famine and with [j]pestilence and by the wild beasts of the earth.”

Maybe Cash says it best:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9CrBqRb3VGM

To this end, Arctic sea ice has been recovering. This is yesterday:

https://www7320.nrlssc.navy.mil/GLBhycomcice1-12/navo/arcticictn/nowcast/ictn2022061512_2022061600_930_arcticictn.001.gif

The link below is June 16th 5 years ago, a modest decrease from today, but Arctic sea ice is is in recovery:

https://www7320.nrlssc.navy.mil/GLBhycomcice1-12/navo/arcticictn/nowcast/ictn2022061512_2022061600_930_arcticictn.001.gif

Why? La Nina like conditions:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/La_Ni%C3%B1a#/media/File:20210827_Global_surface_temperature_bar_chart_-_bars_color-coded_by_El_Ni%C3%B1o_and_La_Ni%C3%B1a_intensity.svg

However, it shouldn’t be a secret what El Nino’s do to Arctic sea ice. We’ve had La Nina like conditions going on 2 years now. Once this trend reverses, the melt is back on and the focus will change back to how long Arctic sea ice will last in the context of rising global temps where Arctic temps are rising 3x higher.

If one hasn’t thought of the consequences of Arctic ice free summers, one guaranteed has not thought it through. As such, the existential threat of climate change isn’t going away. If COP26 taught us anything, it’s that nations throughout the world are lip syncing a response to climate change while simultaneously upping estimates for fossil fuel supply/demand. I think the planet all things considered, is going to learn concerning climate change the hard way unfortunately and there isn’t much to do but watch (and break that rusty cage).

#111 Tim on 06.17.22 at 8:36 pm

No, blockchain is not “a solid move forward”, it’s a clever but slow and inefficient technology that, after a dozen years of thrashing, has failed to find a useful application. Check out https://concerned.tech

Internet success stories succeed faster than that. If blockchain were going to change the world, it would have by now.

#112 J on 06.17.22 at 8:40 pm

Garth – I just wanted to say you possess great writing skills and provide fantastic content. Consistently. A rarity.

As a blogdog I occasionally post something, but rarely do I venture into the swamp and actually read other’s posts. Today I had a bit of extra time and made the mistake of diving in. Some folks need to tone it down. Yikes.

Cases in point…

#83 Dan Rhodes on 06.17.22 at 5:57 pm
“your stoopid- YOUR FOS”

#62 Bitcoin Bro on 06.17.22 at 4:52 pm
“Dweebs can write letters all they want…”

If an argument contains a personal attack, I (and most others) ignore it. It’s not only childish, it also greatly weakens your position. The best arguments embrace and truly listen to the opposing side and may even weave in and concede some points within their dialog and reasoning.

#113 I don't know on 06.17.22 at 8:42 pm

#92 crowdedelevatorfartz on 06.17.22 at 7:04 pm

-Reading that poster’s comments, a couple things come to mind. First is that they spend a lot of time on finance social media where everything is hyperbole. In that world, all stock purchasers are leveraged 20x with options, and all real estate buyers have 5% down on a 2 million dollar home in a town of 5000 in the middle of nowhere. The average, prudent investor’s strategy doesn’t get clicks and likes and so is ignored.

Second, people who have no skin in the game are always the ones who want it all to burn down. Usually these people own no real estate and are renting (and hate it) and own few financial assets (mostly because of their cynicism and pessimism).

In the investment world, they generate what is known as noise.

IDK

#114 The Regulator on 06.17.22 at 8:55 pm

# 97 – Diamond dog : I know of an imperial agressor the Guardian doesn’t mention. It has over 800 bases worldwide. It has a military which uses more oil related products than most nations. It considers itself exceptional. It does all the things it accuses Russia of doing. It has been called the Empire of Lies. It owns the western media. Any guesses?

#115 Beth on 06.17.22 at 9:06 pm

If mortgages go up, and then rental units go up in price per month… how does raising the rate – make ‘gasoline’ more affordable?

Prices are going up because to move stuff from place to place, you need gas. Gas is expensive now. This mortgage rate hike, increases payments for people struggling with already high bills, and they it hits renters… so the poor get squished? And doesn’t this mean we Canadians, who are in extreme debt (thanks to T2) will also have to pay more on the trillions we owe??

I don’t actually understand how this ‘raising rates’ helps anyone. Can someone explain in layman’s terms… it just seems like rate hikes mean things are going to get worse… isn’t this a time when people might need money to survive because of all the inflation?

#116 Faron on 06.17.22 at 9:29 pm

#114 The Regulator on 06.17.22 at 8:55 pm

Shrug. You sound envious.

#117 I don't know on 06.17.22 at 9:38 pm

#109 The Regulator on 06.17.22 at 8:55 pm

Those bases are there for good reason. History has shown that human society succumbs to totalitarianism relatively easily, dictators inevitably turn to force, and the only way to counter this is through even greater force.

It’s about necessity. Morality plays no part.

IDK

#118 Catalyst on 06.17.22 at 9:39 pm

The US & Canada CB’s are at least pretending to battle inflation. EU is still at zero and doing QE to this day with 10% inflation. BOJ is pumping like no tomorrow. China cutting. I imagine it won’t be long before Jpow and co. are reversing course to protect the recovery.

#119 David on 06.17.22 at 9:39 pm

All 11 companies in my investment portfolio pay dividends ranging from four percent to over six percent. I’m happy to sit back and be paid to wait, snapping up additional beaten down shares with my surplus income. Bring it on.

#120 Faron on 06.17.22 at 9:47 pm

#102 Bitcoin Bro on 06.17.22 at 7:37 pm

#91 Faron on 06.17.22 at 6:50 pm

Positive regulatory frameworks

Like almost everything tech related, so many of these “inventions” boil down to regulatory escape that leads to a hypercapitalist wild west that leads to people getting robbed and hurt that leads back to eventual regulation and the tech gets discarded or just makes things marginally cheaper and we’re back to square 1. Your positive regulatory frameworks will be a digital form of sovereign currencies. Nothing more.

Bitcoin is resource destructive (stupidly slow and insanely energy intensive) and is backed by absolutely nothing other than this bogus idea of scarcity. I can hork one goober per day and dry it for preservation for the rest of my life and those 14,000 goobers will all be utterly unique in every way possible: shape, weight, colour, DNA (information) content among others. But, they are non productive and cost resources to store thus are worthless. Any value they have is simply fetish. Bitcoin is absolutely no different other than they are goobers created through hashing that can be shared over the internet.

Finally, the bitcoin tech does not make the token worth… anything. Arguing that it does is like saying that successfully compiling the linux kernel gives me a piece of software that is worth something. Nope. There’s tons of value in the kernel, in the code, but zero in any instance of that codes product. I yield to Caffeine Monkey and others who have commented today to point out that blockchain is a technology without an application. Those commenters know their stuff and elucidate their points without harking back to nonsensical mumbo jumbo.

Finally, someone or some thing is draining the USDT market cap by $0.8B every 24 hours or so. It’s the wild west and someone is making off with the loot. Everyone else will be holding empty bags in the not so distant future. Good luck banking with that “stablecoin” when it gets rugged.

#121 Doug in London on 06.17.22 at 10:31 pm

What we see happening now is liken 1990 all over again. Say, has anyone heard that new song Blue Sky Mine by Midnight Oil, from Australia? How about Freefalling by Tom Petty? Are the rumours true that East and West Germany will be reunited this year? Back to the present, I’ve been scooping up some cheap stocks and ETFs today, just like I did with equity mutual funds with the account I set up with Altamira, in the spring of 1990 of course.

#122 Lorne on 06.17.22 at 10:31 pm

#88 JSS on 06.17.22 at 6:41 pm
“#76 Sam on 06.17.22 at 5:44 pm
Rumor is, amorizations going to 40 years to support the home owners. Can you shed some light on this?”

I believe I mentioned this might happen about 10 moons ago.
……
Those 40 year amortizations (albeit, along with 0% down payments) brought in by Flaherty and Harper, ignited this housing bubble.

#123 crowdedelevatorfartz on 06.17.22 at 10:33 pm

@#105 Quintillian
“Become an owner, not a gambler.”
+++
Actually.
I had chances over the past 25-30 years to “jump in” and “own” or become a shareholder in a start up.
Fiscally, I am conservative by nature.
Couldn’t get past the sales pitch either by ignorance or my distrust of salesmen.
Either way.
I missed out on buying shares in several companies that hit HUGE.
The big Diamond play up north was offered at $2/share ….Diavick Mines released their samples and trading hit the roof…… I could have retired
A rental property up in Whistler 6 months Before the 2010 Olympics was announced. Tripled in value overnight.
PanAmerican Silver when it was $4/share and then Bill Gates bought in several weeks later…… $12 the next morning …trading halted at $16.
I could have retired.
Industrial Light and Magic at $4 just before Jurassic Park exploded onto the big screen.
I could have retired.
Bitcoin when it was $0.05.
I could have retired VERY rich.

On and on and on.

I have a hard time trusting Sales pitches.

However.
About 6 years ago I was offered a chance to buy in to a company that does maintenance in very specific areas.
It’s not sexy, glamourous or interesting….but it pays…very very well and is recession proof….as most maintenance companies are.
Even when the bottom is dropping out of the economy, Insurance and Govt regulation demands a minimum of upkeep.
That’s where I step in.
:)
So I bought into a small company and have enjoyed the financial benefits since.
My only regret.
Is I didnt take the jump years ago when I was offered other business opportunities.

My only advice to younger people is.
Grab that ring.
Be your own boss.
Taking orders from bosses that are stupider and lazier than you…..is soul sucking.

#124 crowdedelevatorfartz on 06.17.22 at 10:35 pm

@#114 The Reurgitator
“It has been called the Empire of Lies. It owns the western media. Any guesses?”

+++
Thats easy.
China!

#125 I don't know on 06.17.22 at 10:43 pm

https://financialpost.com/investing/pacific-investment-management-co-chief-to-allianz-se-investors-stop-being-greedy

Here’s Mohamed El-Erian predicting “only a few more years of low volatility”…in April 2015. At all time highs, nearly 7 years later, the SPY had doubled and then some.

I guess he didn’t see a once in a hundred year pandemic on the horizon.

Intelligent commentary, but limited utility or value in terms of investment strategy moving forward.

IDK

That was trite and beneath you. – Garth

#126 Waystar Royco Shareholder on 06.17.22 at 10:51 pm

Kelowna is an absolute mess. I know a realtor who works there and they say there’s deals collapsing all over the place due to appraisals coming in lower, or people just backing out entirely. Anyone who knows anything about Kelowna could have told you this was coming. Prices reached pure insanity there, comparable to the worst bunnypatch houses in Ontario. Now, the pain will be so much worse than what Vancouver will see because of the greed. I would not be surprised to see a 50% drop from peak in places like Kelowna when this is all said and done. Pity the person who bought at peak, for they are the true greater fool.

‐–‐——————————————————————

But, but, but, my REALTOR said prices will continue to rise in Kelowna because:

1) Kelowna is one of the fastest growing municipalities in Canada!! (as a percentage – not absolute numbers, 27k increase in population over the last 5 years, which is barely over 5k per year)

2) Everyone in Canada wants to live here! (Well, not everyone, see point #1)

3) People love the lifestyle here! You can ski in the morning and golf in the afternoon! (Nobody does this and it if they do, it’s possible maybe 1 day a year and if you can afford it)

4) Prices are high, but for people moving here from Vancouver and Toronto, it’s a bargain! (Kelowna is certainly not comparable to these major economic and employment hubs and RE should not either)

5) It may be expensive, but that’s becasue of out sunshine tax! (Cloudy from November to June, smokey from July to October)

6) it’s a great place to raise a family! (Not when decent houses are $1.9m, which would cost a family $8,800 a month for a mortgage at 5% interest with a 20% ($380k) down payment and the average household income being below $100k)

7) Come experience the Okanagan lifestyle! (Huge drug and crime issues, ridiculous traffic, no more than 3 good restaurants, unswimable beaches due to goose dropping, milfoil and needles, snobby people, loud boats and bikes all summer)

#127 Garrick on 06.17.22 at 10:52 pm

Please God, kill the power to Faron’s computer

#128 Ponzius Pilatus on 06.17.22 at 11:16 pm

#123 CEF
My only advice to younger people is.
Grab that ring.
Be your own boss.
Taking orders from bosses that are stupider and lazier than you…..is soul sucking.
————————-
My only advice?
I sure hope so.
One is too many.
Again your extrapolating from your own experience.
Because you had bad bosses, does not mean everybody has the same experience.
BTW, you don’t seem to be a good boss, so take a look in the mirror.

#129 Caffeine Monkey on 06.17.22 at 11:34 pm

#62 Bitcoin Bro on 06.17.22 at 4:52 pm
“… the choice is obvious.”
—–
Just don’t HODL all the way to zero, bro.

#130 David Greene on 06.17.22 at 11:49 pm

The Star: Enbridge to raise natural gas prices by as much as 23% in July.

https://www.thestar.com/politics/provincial/2022/06/16/enbridge-to-raise-natural-gas-prices-by-as-much-as-23-per-cent-july-1.html

#131 crowdedelevatorfartz on 06.18.22 at 12:14 am

@#128 Ponzius Pedantus

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MZ4NYXqmLGQ

My employees enjoy healthy profit share bonuses ( my idea).
Did yours?

#132 Sarcastic TTC employee on 06.18.22 at 1:07 am

Sarcastic TTC employee here.

The woman who was lit on fire by a potential incel terrorist should have known that travelling alone without a male chaperone is her fault.

Also she didn’t wear enough clothing to prevent the potential incel from identifying her as a female.

She should have taken precautions, used a male chaperone, wore more fireproof clothing and should have taken the car.

Sincerely,
This is how the LegalDefence of the TTC would be when the victim sues the TTC for negligence.

#133 EmperorTrajan on 06.18.22 at 1:17 am

I much prefer ‘amorization’ over amortization. some typos are inspiring.

#134 Jordan on 06.18.22 at 1:33 am

The great reset is upon us…
Bringing in normal rates
Equities back down to reality (and then some)
And bonds too
Everything is down
And eventually, equities will fly until we hit another cycle
Rates will go down to soften that cycle
Bond funds will rise, negatively correlate the market, and the B &D 60/40 will once again, rule the world…

#135 millmech on 06.18.22 at 2:35 am

#76 Sam
Go to any mortgage amortization calculator and plug in a $1,250,000 mortgage over 40 years with 20% down at around 6% interest.
The interest costs alone would be $1,637,680, add in property tax and insurance and upkeep it will add another $625,000 to the bill as well over that time frame.
Roughly it will cost you all in $3,256,000, so you are paying about $2,000,000 in costs over 40 years which works out to about $4000/mth.
That same $4000 in interest and incidentals invested at 6% for 40 years gets you about $8,000,000.
Heck add in the $1,250,000 to start and after 40 years of $48,000 year your at $20,000,000.
So basically your paying the bank rent of $4000/mth over your lifetime.
I would rather buy $4000 of bank shares every month myself but each to his own.

#136 Yawn Boy on 06.18.22 at 4:57 am

And yet, dividends are rolling in, monthly, quarterly, semi and annually. Nothing’s changed. Smooth sailing. I’m so deep in profit I’d own more in taxes than crystallizing the 6% haircut . I would buy more on sale instead of ever selling.

I think my average cost of TD for ex is $14. Why would a person like me sell? A fund guy I know was buying Gib.a last week roaring about it as a steal at $130. I’m in at $15. I might take a vacation.

#137 under the radar on 06.18.22 at 5:25 am

The example of the Cambridge house is but another example of a bursting bubble. In real estate money is made on the buy, not the sale. All so predictable, yet many will suffer for years . Hard knocks is a lesson most remember.

#138 Sam on 06.18.22 at 8:17 am

#76 Sam
Go to any mortgage amortization calculator and plug in a $1,250,000 mortgage over 40 years with 20% down at around 6% interest.
The interest costs alone would be $1,637,680, add in property tax and insurance and upkeep it will add another $625,000 to the bill as well over that time frame.
Roughly it will cost you all in $3,256,000, so you are paying about $2,000,000 in costs over 40 years which works out to about $4000/mth.
That same $4000 in interest and incidentals invested at 6% for 40 years gets you about $8,000,000.
Heck add in the $1,250,000 to start and after 40 years of $48,000 year your at $20,000,000.
So basically your paying the bank rent of $4000/mth over your lifetime.
I would rather buy $4000 of bank shares every month myself but each to his own.
**************************
Thanks man. I never looked at it this way. Great analysis. I learnt a lot from you today.

#139 Sam on 06.18.22 at 8:18 am

My above reply was for Millmech – 135

#140 Ponzius Pilatus on 06.18.22 at 8:59 am

#131 crowdedelevatorfartz on 06.18.22 at 12:14 am
@#128 Ponzius Pedantus

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MZ4NYXqmLGQ

My employees enjoy healthy profit share bonuses ( my idea).
Did yours?
——————-
Lots of companies do that.
No big deal.

#141 Sam on 06.18.22 at 9:45 am

#135 millmech on 06.18.22 at 2:35 am
#76 Sam
Go to any mortgage amortization calculator and plug in a $1,250,000 mortgage over 40 years with 20% down at around 6% interest.
The interest costs alone would be $1,637,680, add in property tax and insurance and upkeep it will add another $625,000 to the bill as well over that time frame.
Roughly it will cost you all in $3,256,000, so you are paying about $2,000,000 in costs over 40 years which works out to about $4000/mth.
That same $4000 in interest and incidentals invested at 6% for 40 years gets you about $8,000,000.
Heck add in the $1,250,000 to start and after 40 years of $48,000 year your at $20,000,000.
So basically your paying the bank rent of $4000/mth over your lifetime.
I would rather buy $4000 of bank shares every month myself but each to his own.

#136 Yawn Boy on 06.18.22 at 4:57 am
**********************
But you dont pay rent in the above scenario. Did you forget that part?

#142 DON on 06.18.22 at 10:03 am

Bitcoin just went under 20k USD.

They are changing their name to Morbitcoin, until its worth 50k again.

#143 Brian on 06.18.22 at 10:06 am

New Vehicle Inventory, Stuck Near Record Lows, Gets Worse as Buyers Shift from Trucks to Economical Cars, which Vanish

https://wolfstreet.com/2022/06/17/new-vehicle-inventory-stuck-near-record-lows-gets-worse-as-buyers-shift-from-trucks-to-economical-cars-which-vanish/

As Ford and GM have discontinued small car production, are we ready to bail out the automakers again?

#144 The Regulator on 06.18.22 at 10:11 am

# 99 – Faron : I am flattered by your assumption that I’m more disliked than you, the robo-commenter. Russia is dropping interest rates. Russian inflation is falling, and will continue to do so. Now around 17%.The ruble is strengthening.They develop their resources, unlike virtue signaling Canaduh. If I’m disliked, so be it. Reality bites. I await your next 20 to 30 comments that are ignored by most, except for their comedic value. LOL

#145 DON on 06.18.22 at 10:16 am

#141 Sam on 06.18.22 at 9:45 am
#135 millmech on 06.18.22 at 2:35 am
#76 Sam
Go to any mortgage amortization calculator and plug in a $1,250,000 mortgage over 40 years with 20% down at around 6% interest.
The interest costs alone would be $1,637,680, add in property tax and insurance and upkeep it will add another $625,000 to the bill as well over that time frame.
Roughly it will cost you all in $3,256,000, so you are paying about $2,000,000 in costs over 40 years which works out to about $4000/mth.
That same $4000 in interest and incidentals invested at 6% for 40 years gets you about $8,000,000.
Heck add in the $1,250,000 to start and after 40 years of $48,000 year your at $20,000,000.
So basically your paying the bank rent of $4000/mth over your lifetime.
I would rather buy $4000 of bank shares every month myself but each to his own.

#136 Yawn Boy on 06.18.22 at 4:57 am
**********************
But you dont pay rent in the above scenario. Did you forget that part?

***********
Your argument seems to be rooted in your need to include others in your pain like a wounded human caught up in FOMO.

#146 crowdedelevatorfartz on 06.18.22 at 10:17 am

@#140 Ponzies Pinched Pennies
“Lots of companies do that.”

+++
So take that as a no.
You never shared the profits with your staff.

An extra month, two months or 6 months of salary is “no big deal”?
Maybe to you .
But all the staff i have given bonuses to over the past 6 years seem to disagree with you.

Keep pinching those pennies ponzi

#147 Linda on 06.18.22 at 10:27 am

#82 ‘Dogs’ – I doubt there will be food shortages, though there may be reduced choices on the shelves due to supply chain issues. Saskatchewan happens to have 45% of the world potash supply. Potash is a key component in fertilizer & Saskatchewan has enough to supply the world for several hundred years.

Let’s say you are correct & the food supply is reduced. That could well be a silver lining. Some 63% of adult Canadians are classed as overweight or obese; adults in the USA who fit those categories are roughly 69% or 2/3rds the population. A reduction in daily calories might have a very beneficial effect health wise, including a reduction in demand for medical services related to health issues associated with excess weight.

#148 The Regulator on 06.18.22 at 10:30 am

DELETED (Abusive. One more and you are gone. – Garth)

#149 millmech on 06.18.22 at 10:55 am

DON
Rent is paid either to the bank or a landlord. The point was that home buyers state that you are throwing your money away on rent and it is a waste and owning is always better financially. There are a lot of hidden costs to ownership and if one is diligent when renting and invests wisely you can beat real estate.

#150 Dharma Bum on 06.18.22 at 11:24 am

Met some old high school buddies for a reunion in downtown Toronto last night.

I forgot what a vacuous, soulless and uninteresting place downtown Toronto is.

On a Friday night, crawling with homeless bums, hipsters, flakes, zombies, directionless young folks, wannabes in search of a scene.

Miles of city blocks on end with deteriorating concrete and glass abounding, but nary an interesting place to see, shop, browse, eat, have a coffee, hang out, drink, or ponder.

Nothing but bland corporate chains – Tim Hortons, Starbucks, Subway, Hero Burger, Harvey’s, Druxy’s, Pizza Pizza, and the like.

Ugh.

Same crap joints that pollute the landscape in all of the GTA suburban wasteland. No difference downtown.

Thank goodness we ended the night sobering up at good old Fran’s Restaurant. A respectably decrepit dive offering up pie and coffee and greasy grub for decades.

I felt like I was back in the ’70s.

When crime was high, and boys were boys and girls were girls.

You know – the good old days.

Not any more.

#151 Tony on 06.18.22 at 2:59 pm

Re: #103 Dotty on 06.17.22 at 7:51 pm

At least with Trudeau as Prime Minister the chances of getting paid in case of a default/defaults are very high.

#152 Pulp Faction on 06.19.22 at 2:52 pm

Prepare to short Meta/Facebook.
Nobody likes the new format, and it filters out comments….censoring other people’s opinions.
Expect a coming mass exodus to other platforms.
You didn’t listen when I said dump Nortel, you didn’t listen when I said go all in on Apple. Apple is about to re-invent itself yet again. TSMC and ASML are also both good to go. Samsung is good, Intel no, IBM no.
#techking I invest money in nothing. I just like to call it and watch everybody disregard me as a complete idiot.
I’m an analyst, you’re a gambler.
I already know I’m smarter than you so it’s just entertainment to me.