Incoming!

Interest rates bolted ahead in the States on Wednesday. Now the odds are 80% or better the same happens here (again) in 19 business days. The US Fed upped its benchmark by a whopping 75 bips. It’s the first time that’s happened in 28 years. A similar bomb is set to go off in July for Americans, then again here in September. In fact, multiple half-point increases in the US rate are now signalled.

So, kids, it’s officially arrived. Da big one. Mortgages just popped above 5%, on their way to six, The stress test rate has topped 7%, and it’s a cinch Ottawa will scrap the hurdle this autumn as it lurches towards 8%. But the damage will be done to real estate.

Stocks? That’s another story. US equities rallied going into the big Fed show because Mr. Market thinks crazy inflation is a bigger risk that swelling rates. The CPI report on Friday (8.6% Stateside) was a shocker. Stocks shuddered lower as a result – the same reason they’ll rebound as the CB gets aggressive and prices eventually diminish. Even if there’s a recession (likely to be – like me – mild and short) the long-term impact of the CB moves will be positive. We all now know money was too cheap for too long.

Actually markets would have liked an epic 100-basis-point jump on Wednesday. But Jay Powell is saying the right things. There’s confidence monetary authorities have stopped sitting on their thumbs and will go all Rambo for us.

Says my suspender-snapping, supercar-owning portfolio manager bud Ryan, “Now the Fed and other CBs are hiking rates to help tame inflation. I believe the combination of the rate hikes and lower economic growth will be enough to bring down inflation in the back half of this year. We should then see the Fed ‘pivot’ later this year signaling an end to their rate hikes. If the rate hikes do in fact lead to a recession we could be looking at rate cuts later in 2023.”

There’s more. Like the presidential cycle, which historically has delivered nice market returns in year 3 of an American presidency. Equities have also rallied in the year after mid-terms (coming in November). And the war. Now China’s Xi is telling Russia’s Putin to find a solution in Ukraine. Any outcome would be a game-changer.

So here in Canada the impact of cheap money has been a windfall for people with houses and a disaster for those lusting after one. Historic price inflation is being followed by property deflation. It’s only started. As this blog has been yammering about for several days, we should expect the real estate pain to be lengthy and the financial market hit to be far shorter. Live by leverage, and die by it.

After all, look at what cheap rates did. There is so much damage to repair.

What cheap money and FOMO did to this market…

…and how that excess is peeling back fast.

Given the Fed’s move today, the BoC is expected to push up the chartered bank prime in a few weeks to almost 4.5% – close to double its level two months ago. Markets are betting there will be (possibly) another 2.75% in increases after that before rates crest and the back of inflation is broken., What else breaks along the way is yet to be seen. But if you took out a HELOC last year at less than 3% you might end up paying 8% by Halloween.

By the way, today (even before the Fed announcement) Scotia became the first major lender to take its five-year fixed-rate mortgage above 5%. It now sits at 5.23%, and in order to get it a borrower would need to prove their ability to service a home loan at 7.23%. “This is completely senseless,” says broker and mortgage blogger Rob McLister.

Can current real estate valuations – up 141% in King or 95% in Caledon (Bunnypatch central) – withstand a 7% mortgage hurdle?

Not a prayer. There is apparently so much further to descend until prices are remotely justified by incomes. Expect growing declines, increased listings, expanded DOM and months of inventory piling up, which will linger far after the CBs have gone dovish again and Putin goes home.

Until then, renter respect. Things happen for a reason.

About the picture: “This is Coco,” writes Ken. “She was a cockapoo and we loved her dearly. She lived to 18 and we put her down. Just like the real estate market, it’s being put down but I’m not crying for real estate, it took a needle in March – no tears on this one. I’m a renter!!  Keep up the great work Garth.”

220 comments ↓

#1 TVO on 06.15.22 at 2:14 pm

Adam Vaughan is probably on the FBI watchlist after the FED hiked the rates today.

#2 Party on Garth on 06.15.22 at 2:15 pm

The borrowing and spending binge by Canadian households, businesses, and governments (all levels) continues unabated.

At the end of March, 2022 the total debt outstanding in Canada (bottom line of the Statistics Canada credit market summary data table) was $10.162 trillion. At the end of March, 2021 the total debt outstanding was $9.376 trillion. In the 1 year period from the end of March, 2021 to the end of March, 2022 it increased by $785.8 billion. This is an increase of 8.3%.

Canadian total (household, business, and all levels of government) debt numbers as of the end of March, 2022

https://owecanada.blogspot.com/2022/06/canadian-total-household-business-and_15.html

#3 Søren Angst on 06.15.22 at 2:16 pm

No way you wrote all this a few minutes after the US Fed announcement.

You were just waiting to press what it is you press to publish a Blog.

Well written Garth. Incoming indeed.

#4 Mehling on 06.15.22 at 2:25 pm

Spring – 2009:

I remember driving around West Vancouver viewing numerous stunning (and somewhat affordable on the lower end) properties that went no bid.

What an incredible bargain they were then for those with cash.

We could see this happen again depending on owners’ degree of leverage.

#5 Caffeine Monkey on 06.15.22 at 2:26 pm

Don’t worry people! I have inside information that Jerome Powell spends a lot of his spare time scrolling through listings on realtor.ca. Once he realizes the negative impact of his monetary policy on Toronto condos and monster homes in the Fraser Valley, he will surely reverse course to preserve the economy.

And unfortunately I now have to use a sarcasm tag because – unbelievably – some people actually think this way.

/sarcasm

#6 Victor Llearna on 06.15.22 at 2:26 pm

SHeep that bought houses are learning that interest rates DO go up and Justin can’t prevent rate increases or bail them out.

#7 Søren Angst on 06.15.22 at 2:27 pm

Putin goes home. – Garth

He may not be yet but his economy, oh it’s going down.

Russian economy into the toilet + some dry English humour:

https://twitter.com/bsant54/status/1536968786871451648

Official Russian Gov number save the last one by IIF whom I believe:

Russian GDP this year: -30%.

Have a nice day Vlad.

#8 Captain Uppa on 06.15.22 at 2:28 pm

$250 a week into my 70/30.

And just like the Postman, it deposits every week nor snow, nor hail, nor recession.

#9 Captain Uppa on 06.15.22 at 2:28 pm

#4 Captain Uppa on 06.15.22 at 2:28 pm
$250 a week into my 70/30.

And just like the Postman, it deposits every week nor snow, nor hail, nor recession.

———————————————

Unless I lose my job, of course lol.

#10 physicist on 06.15.22 at 2:29 pm

@ #3 Søren Angst on 06.15.22 at 2:16 pm

The better question is, did he have an alternate blog post ready in case the raise was only 0.5%?!?!

#11 J on 06.15.22 at 2:31 pm

Well-known investor Jim Rogers, 79, has recently stated that “this is going to be the worst bear market in my lifetime,” and that “it will go down a lot and last a long time”. His reasoning? Unprecedented debt everywhere. He has been investing for decades and has experienced many significant bear markets, so his declaration surprised me.

I’m genuinely interested in what all the blog dogs think about his statement. Is he: (a) sincere about his forecast and ultimately correct, (b) just attempting to stir up some commotion and get media coverage that could benefit him personally, or (c) somewhere in the middle, e.g., believes his prediction but the next bear market will not be the worst in the last 80 years?

The guy has made a career out of scaring people. And being wrong. – Garth

#12 Ponzius Pilatus on 06.15.22 at 2:31 pm

#3 Søren Angst on 06.15.22 at 2:16 pm
No way you wrote all this a few minutes after the US Fed announcement.

You were just waiting to press what it is you press to publish a Blog.

Well written Garth. Incoming indeed.
————————
Haha.
You can tell Garth is excited.
Off to the races.

#13 Shawn on 06.15.22 at 2:32 pm

The U.S. is likely in Recession

Like the bear market thing, they will report the recession only after it has happened.

U.S. retail sales fell 0.3% in May despite the approximate 8% inflation.

That means retail sales volumes were down about 8%. Jobs follow volume. GDP growth is measured in real dollars – volume. This print suggests recession.

And if higher interest rates lead to less borrowing and purchasing then that will also push towards recession.

How could you possibly bring inflation down from 8% to 2% without a big decrease in volume of sales and therefore recession?

Remember, even a 1% drop in GDP for two quarters is considered recession.

Did the U.S. also not have negative GDP in Q1?

I’d give at least 90% odds that Q2 U.S. GDP is a decline.

#14 Shawn on 06.15.22 at 2:35 pm

No, your property tax won’t decline

Wait ’till all those dummies that think property taxes follow house prices realize that there will be no average property tax declines as home prices fall. Your municipality still needs more money next year, not less. Mill rates will increase to offset the home price decline.

#15 Spring Fed. on 06.15.22 at 2:38 pm

There is a god but they are still waaaaay behind the curve.

One more hike and reverse.

Not a chance. – Garth

#16 James on 06.15.22 at 2:44 pm

#15 Spring Fed. on 06.15.22 at 2:38 pm

There is a god but they are still waaaaay behind the curve.

One more hike and reverse.

Not a chance. – Garth
____________________________________________
Reverse? Not in the next five years at least. Its here to stay buttercup!

#17 Søren Angst on 06.15.22 at 2:46 pm

#10 physicist

GOOD one. Too funny.

——————

Powell just finished his press conference and to make a couple takeaways:

1. Reckons it will take TWO, 2 more years to get inflation down to 2%.

2. Aiming for 3.4% by year end + tightening their Balance Sheet like BoC doing.

All that provided things go well.

Hope he’s correct High Inflation down in the next 2 years.

It will be a long tortuous journey for Cdn RE. Just look today at what happened in 2 months.

Heady times indeed.

Dow +469 pts as I type…woo hoo!

2 years. Song 2.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SSbBvKaM6sk

#18 Vanguy on 06.15.22 at 2:53 pm

I heard at least one major bank was rolling back their mortgage pre-approvals back from 90 days to 15. can anyone confirm? seems like they smell more hikes – to Garth’s point

#19 Caffeine Monkey on 06.15.22 at 2:55 pm

Speaking of the stress test, doesn’t the instantaneous drop in house prices despite the existence of the stress test mean that it’s a failed policy? The stress test was intended to make home buyers prove they had plenty of buffer to absorb a significant increase in mortgage rates. That buffer seems to be non-existent – unsurprisingly.

#20 Faron on 06.15.22 at 2:55 pm

Actually many believe Mr. Market would celebrate some giant rate moves. Inflation is the enemy. – Garth

Well spotted Garth.

______________________________________

#10 physicist on 06.15.22 at 2:29 pm

@ #3 Søren Angst on 06.15.22 at 2:16 pm

The better question is, did he have an alternate blog post ready in case the raise was only 0.5%?!?!

Look at the URL…

#21 None on 06.15.22 at 2:56 pm

Ditching the stress test is stupid. We shouldn’t even need that rule – that’s what people should be doing otherwise to protect themselves from unknowns. This is where having a nanny state is justified.

#22 Søren Angst on 06.15.22 at 2:57 pm

#13 Shawn

The U.S. is likely in Recession

———————

You may want to listen to the US Fed Chairman press conference before you decided to natter on.

Pay attention to his projections on GDP etc.

I trust him more than I do you. THAT’S for sure.

#23 A01 on 06.15.22 at 2:57 pm

Just wanted to say thank you for the daily blog. I look forward to reading it every day.

#24 Andrewski on 06.15.22 at 2:57 pm

Re #5, caffeine monkey. Love the sarcasm, but even funnier, that Powell the US Fed reserve boss, would give a rats a$$ about Canadian real estate.
Maybe Tiff is immersed in checking out the US real estate market & they share their thoughts?!

#25 Prince Polo on 06.15.22 at 2:58 pm

This blog never had a renter respect problem. It’s the pile of smug million$ mortgage owners that need to be taken down at least 50% of the pegs (in this case, for the daft ones, pegs is a metaphor for home prices ).
L8R SK8R!

#26 Mr Wenslydale on 06.15.22 at 3:00 pm

Renter respect indeed.

Just spent the last 24 hours scrubbing every room in the new rental house…oie.

But hey, green lights across the board today on the ol’ B&D spreadsheet and no debt. Thank you Mr Turner.

#27 Søren Angst on 06.15.22 at 3:02 pm

#20 Faron

GOOD EYE F. 😅

#28 Faron on 06.15.22 at 3:12 pm

#19 Caffeine Monkey on 06.15.22 at 2:55 pm

Speaking of the stress test, doesn’t the instantaneous drop in house prices despite the existence of the stress test mean that it’s a failed policy? The stress test was intended to make home buyers prove they had plenty of buffer to absorb a significant increase in mortgage rates. That buffer seems to be non-existent – unsurprisingly.

Has the rate the stress test measures against been raised? If it hasn’t, you have a good point. If it has, then you’d have to get rid of the test to find out. I agree with you though, I think the folding of house buying has more to do with macro issues +- mortgage rates.

#29 wfh on 06.15.22 at 3:12 pm

your explanation about the stock market makes no sense.. markets boomed in inflationary environment – the recent decline was baking in the incoming rate hike.. today’s bounce back is because the hike was not higher than expected, not because the markets like high interest rates

As stated, markets fear inflation more than expensive money. Equities wanna go up and will do so when the future looks brighter, if if the present still sucks. Stay invested. – Garth

#30 Dave on 06.15.22 at 3:18 pm

Despite mortgage rate increases, houses in BC have barely moved downward. In many cases the sold prices is within 5% of the asking price. So if you think rates will trend back down in 2023 that means either housing won’t fall by much in BC in anticipation of eventual rate cuts, people will just take their place off the market–or, we’re going to see huge drops in the next 4 months.

The market cannot survive 5-6% mortgages without price cuts. And rates are not going down in 2023. Listen to the Fed. – Garth

#31 Chaddywack on 06.15.22 at 3:27 pm

Houses in Vancouver still selling close to list and mostly above last years assessments.

Sellers are not budging, but there’s always someone who needs to sell (death divorce etc.) which could set new comparables.

Still, even 5 to 6% mortgages won’t be enough to take down owner arrogance about their house value in the “best place on earth” at least not right away……check back next year.

#32 CL on 06.15.22 at 3:28 pm

So let me get this straight, JP said inflation was transitory multiple times. He was wrong and anyone could see this coming after all the money printing and artificial rate suppression with QE. Then just a few months ago, a 75bip raise was not on the table. Now it’s a 75bip lunch today. And now he says inflation could still surprise to the upside but what they are doing now is right even though they are rarely right?

I am always perplexed at how the same people that caused a problem to begin with are the ones who ride in to save the day and say they can fix it. uhuh. Sure.

As I said before and on record here, the stress test will be eliminated and there will be no soft landing. How on earth can aggressive tightening lead to a soft landing? How can an inflation rate be over 8% and the target FF rate be about 3 even 4%? will they meet in the middle? that means inflation would still be 4% and 100% higher than the 2% target inflation rate.

Fluffy talk but all bull. And the Fed has zero control over oil (where inflation is truly coming from) other than trying to kill demand and we know what demand destruction means.

#33 Penny Henny on 06.15.22 at 3:29 pm

Says my suspended-snapping, supercar-owning portfolio manager bud Ryan, -GT

////////////////

Ryan’s been suspended?
What did he do? Buy gold?

#34 Sail Away on 06.15.22 at 3:31 pm

Glad to see it. Keep cranking the US interest rate and Canada has no real choice but to follow.

A big ongoing concern is out-of-control government spending. The US has key players who oppose and cast deciding votes against, particularly, woke-ist profligacy. Here, not so much.

Your tax dollars at work.

#35 Søren Angst on 06.15.22 at 3:32 pm

As stated, markets fear inflation more than expensive money. Equities wanna go up and will do so when the future looks brighter, if if the present still sucks. Stay invested. – Garth

EXACTLY.

76.1% of Cdns fall into the $46,605 or less tax bracket.

Not a lot of money to throw around. High Inflation, they have to cut back on spending.

Consumer Spending goes down (65.5% of Cdn GDP). Company profits go down. GDP goes down. Layoffs. Vicious cycle.

Why CBs and Economists fear High Inflationary times. Their job to keep inflation in check and foster job creation.

————-

If a smaller segment of the population has GORGED on debt, too bad. They get taken out by high rates. History a testament to that.

CREATIVE DESTRUCTION.

That money in the future is put to better use by new economic players than say, Cdn RE Speculators or those wishing to live La Vida Loca with money from others.

There it is. It can be no simpler.

#36 Søren Angst on 06.15.22 at 3:50 pm

The market cannot survive 5-6% mortgages without price cuts. And rates are not going down in 2023. Listen to the Fed. – Garth

——————

BC. Land where BASIC Economics do not function since they are the Norse Gods of Valhalla and are exempt (just like they thought they were during Covid).

Dot plot of US Fed Rate projections to 2024 + Longer Term. Scroll past the talking face:

https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/u-s-fed-hikes-75-basis-points-powell-says-75-or-50-likely-in-july-1.1778869

#37 Tinpot⁷ Economist on 06.15.22 at 3:50 pm

It’s 1994 and Horton laid an egg.

Trump is part responsible.

There said it.

#38 Penny Henny on 06.15.22 at 3:52 pm

Things slowing down?

“In a sign that the gravy train could stop running at any time, Lawler stated that the Ford is taking steps to prepare for an economic downturn. The main sign of things to come? Late car payments.”

https://jalopnik.com/fords-cost-to-build-the-mach-e-increased-25-000-per-ca-1849065867

#39 Investx on 06.15.22 at 3:53 pm

#3 Søren Angst on 06.15.22 at 2:16 pm
“No way you wrote all this a few minutes after the US Fed announcement.
You were just waiting to press what it is you press to publish a Blog.”

Garth’s been waiting to publish that for years.

#40 Balmuto on 06.15.22 at 4:06 pm

Average house in King went from $3.2 million to $2.1 million in 3 months?

I hate to bring up the sales mix issue but average homeowners in King did not just lose $1.1 million in home equity in 3 months. My guess is that the $3.2 million number was inflated by some luxury home sales in the Feb. mix.

#41 CJ on 06.15.22 at 4:18 pm

Now that we see the calamitous results and economic devastation brought forth by inflation, WHY is no one focusing on those individuals and government who printed billions, and even trillions of dollars under vague, vacuous promises to “protect society” from a bad flu?

#42 Nonplused on 06.15.22 at 4:34 pm

And here everyone thought Trump was to be the bag-holder for all economic troubles. Looks like we were wrong, it will be Biden.

The Biden presidency will be remembered for 8.5%+ inflation, rising rates, economic contraction, collapsing borders, war in Europe, and $6.66 per gallon gas prices signaling the end times and Armageddon on the way. But yet the way things were going could not continue. Things that cannot continue usually don’t. Sucks to be the guy that gets stuck holding the bag though. Especially when it’s a bag of doggie-doo.

#43 Kurt on 06.15.22 at 4:41 pm

#19 Caffeine Monkey

No. The stress test is there to protect the banks, not the borrowers. As long as the borrowers stay solvent, the CB doesn’t care.

#44 Ponzius Pilatus on 06.15.22 at 4:42 pm

Just got my 4th shot.
I’m not in the forecasting business, but I think the fall may be another doozy.
And the summer may hold some surprises, too.
The bug finally got The Fauci.
Be prepared.

#45 Sail Away on 06.15.22 at 4:45 pm

#38 Penny Henny on 06.15.22 at 3:52 pm
Things slowing down?

“In a sign that the gravy train could stop running at any time, Lawler stated that the Ford is taking steps to prepare for an economic downturn. The main sign of things to come? Late car payments.”

https://jalopnik.com/fords-cost-to-build-the-mach-e-increased-25-000-per-ca-1849065867

——–

Oh my. And, unfortunately for Ford, about 50,000 electric Mustang Mach E cars were just recalled and new deliveries stopped, with no apparent fix.

No biggie, haha: it’s just the battery. Or, should we say, that minor thing that makes the car go?

Not everything is as easy as Tesla makes it look, apparently.

https://www.motortrend.com/news/ford-mustang-mach-e-recall-electric-nhtsa-battery/

#46 Leichendiener on 06.15.22 at 4:45 pm

As Warren Buffett once said: ‘When the tide goes out you discover who has been swimming naked.’

#47 Squire on 06.15.22 at 4:48 pm

#30 Dave on 06.15.22 at 3:18 pm
Despite mortgage rate increases, houses in BC have barely moved downward. In many cases the sold prices is within 5% of the asking price. So if you think rates will trend back down in 2023 that means either housing won’t fall by much in BC in anticipation of eventual rate cuts, people will just take their place off the market–or, we’re going to see huge drops in the next 4 months.

The market cannot survive 5-6% mortgages without price cuts. And rates are not going down in 2023. Listen to the Fed. – Garth
———————-
de-ni-al noun = the action of declaring something to be untrue./ the refusal of something requested or desired.

#48 DON on 06.15.22 at 4:50 pm

#12 Ponzius Pilatus on 06.15.22 at 2:31 pm
#3 Søren Angst on 06.15.22 at 2:16 pm
No way you wrote all this a few minutes after the US Fed announcement.

You were just waiting to press what it is you press to publish a Blog.

Well written Garth. Incoming indeed.
————————
Haha.
You can tell Garth is excited.
Off to the races.

***************

Like BA would say…Garth’s on the Jazz.

I figure he had the post written and .75 was penciled in.

#49 Reality Check on 06.15.22 at 4:51 pm

BUT remember Canada would never allow rates to increase – HA!

Canada is a minnow swimming in the big sea of the world economy. While BOC can be influential on interest rates it does not control them.

Even if the BOC was able to keep rates low it would have collateral effects. Artificially low rates would result in a weaker Canadian dollar that would increase the costs of imports and stimulate exports – both of which would add to Canadian inflation.

Nope, Canadian interest rates will follow the general trend of developed world rate which is up, up, up.

Buckle-up fellow renters and watch the show. (I won’t say “enjoy the show” – let’s remember there will be thousands of young Canadian families that were seduced by the real estate cartel that will be financially ruined)

#50 Stan on 06.15.22 at 4:56 pm

Testing, testing.

First time on this site

Better be good. – Garth

#51 Blobby on 06.15.22 at 5:01 pm

I know scrapping the stress test is inevitable, but seems daft when rates are rising.

Surely the whole point of stress test, is if you’re borrowing at 7% to make sure you can afford 9% (as rates are likely to keep going up)

#52 Jerry Dairy on 06.15.22 at 5:02 pm

Garth – would you still recommend leveraging with a HELOC given rising interest rates? Assuming no other debt/mortgage.

Check out my previous cautions. – Garth

#53 Linda on 06.15.22 at 5:08 pm

RIP, Coco. One thing I’ve noted is that pets, like humans, have much longer life expectancies these days.

Thanks for the charts. Interesting to see how prices changed in a relatively brief period of time.

#54 Omicron Kenobi on 06.15.22 at 5:10 pm

We have got Fauci now. You are all next.

And Monkeypox is our BFF.

#55 Faron on 06.15.22 at 5:12 pm

#34 Sail Away on 06.15.22 at 3:31 pm

woke-ist profligacy.

What is that? Like the $100s of dollars that go to drag queen story time? The relative pittance that goes into the minuscule welfare state in the US?

Whatever it is, I’m sure it’s comparable to the billions of dollars that go to the the same conservatives for gun “rights” or in subsidies to their pet oil projects or to the manufacturing of weapons to give to Ukraine. Or, in your pal Trump’s case, to directly enriching himself from the federal government coffers.

Go woke, go broke might just mean that having scruples and not taking massive federal handouts cuts into the bottom line a little. But maybe I have that backwards.

Also, you have used a form of the “word” woke in the majority of your comments since coming down to Victoria. Were you traumatized by the world naked bike ride last weekend?

It’s okay pal. They aren’t coming for you. And, if they do somehow catch up to your nimble self, they will shower you with love. Just open up man.

#56 Faron on 06.15.22 at 5:15 pm

#34 Sail Away on 06.15.22 at 3:31 pm

woke-ist profligacy.

Also, don’t worry about supporting any of your claims with facts or supporting them in any way. I mean, you haven’t yet, so why start now? The MAGA hat wavers love you regardless. Gushing all that intellectual honesty and such-like.

#57 Pay for my house on 06.15.22 at 5:20 pm

#128 Mega pay raises on 06.15.22 at 2:40 am

If you think renting is a great idea, get used to it because you might end up doing it forever. It may be cheaper than owning, but that money is gone forever and rents are sky high too.

It’s only cheaper to rent if you don’t already have lots of equity which many Canadians do.

—–

You are of course correct when you say that rent is gone forever.

However, a 3brdm condo in the area here costs 3x to carry monthly with a 20% down than a equal (I would say better) unit costs to rent block over with a much better view. We’re talking $400K down, $9500 monthly mortgage/fees/taxes vs. $3000 renting. That’s a big big difference. That’s $78K for Garth to manage each year.

The thing about houses is, every house owner expects the next buyer to pay for all their expenses over them living in that house. Mortgage interest, taxes, any improvements, fees, etc. Even opportunity and labour for lawn mowing and snow shoving. Everything.

In essence, house owners expect the next guy to pay them back 100% for everything they’ve spent.

I can’t argue with you so far (past 15 years), it has worked.

Will it always?

I have a feeling that at some point, a bunch of people are going to be left with the bill. A big one actually.

#58 DON on 06.15.22 at 5:25 pm

#30 Dave on 06.15.22 at 3:18 pm
Despite mortgage rate increases, houses in BC have barely moved downward. In many cases the sold prices is within 5% of the asking price. So if you think rates will trend back down in 2023 that means either housing won’t fall by much in BC in anticipation of eventual rate cuts, people will just take their place off the market–or, we’re going to see huge drops in the next 4 months.

The market cannot survive 5-6% mortgages without price cuts. And rates are not going down in 2023. Listen to the Fed. – Garth

***********

Here’s a song for you Dave.

https://youtu.be/ohFtQIPqGSo

Living on a prayer

#59 Faron on 06.15.22 at 5:28 pm

#45 Sail Away on 06.15.22 at 4:45 pm

Not everything is as easy fraudy as Tesla makes it look

Indeed, Tesla’s innumerable battery fires show they haven’t figured it out either. Then there are the 800k+ Tesla cars under imminent recall and all the dead people from so-called “full self driving” and the hundreds of autopilot crashes etc. etc.

#60 Cheese on 06.15.22 at 5:30 pm

I am getting destroyed in XEG, it was the last ray of sunshine in my portfolio….

life is suffering

#61 TurnerNation on 06.15.22 at 5:37 pm

Geez this was right on target. Do I know life in Kanada.
Posted Jan 1st:

#8 TurnerNation on 01.01.22 at 11:17 am
2022 schedule (Thanks to our sponsor, Fizer):
January: TFSA contribution; 3rd booster
March: RRSP contribution; 4th booster
June: 5th booster
September: 6th booster
December: 7th booster. Annual winter lockdown



BTW in my opinion they are just playing with us with these ‘news’ releases. Mockery, even.
Toying with us like a cat with a limp mouse at hand. They know we’re doomed. We know we’re doomed. Let’s just play with it.

Many people opine the Fall is when then the hammer will be again dropped upon us.
This all part of the show. The New Abnormal.

.Toronto’s top doctor tests positive for COVID-19 (globalnews.ca)

.NIAID Director Fauci Tests Positive for COVID-(nih.gov)

.Trudeau isolating after testing positive for COVID-19 again (cbc.ca)

#62 JEFF13 on 06.15.22 at 5:37 pm

There is a god but they are still waaaaay behind the curve.

One more hike and reverse.

Not a chance. – Garth

**************************

July is the last hike before the Powell pivot. Just too much debt in this fake economy. Tell me how much is 3% of 30 Trillions? Fiscal revenue in the US is around 4 trillion.

Not a chance. – Garth

#63 DON on 06.15.22 at 5:37 pm

https://financialpost.com/real-estate/may-home-sales-down-22-since-last-year-9-from-april-crea

#64 george on 06.15.22 at 5:41 pm

FED raises rates by .75 and the greaterfool.ca site crashes….

#65 VladTor on 06.15.22 at 5:47 pm

Garth… Now China’s Xi is telling Russia’s Putin to find a solution in Ukraine….

************

What he said in reality was:

Vladimir Putin outlined his fundamental assessments of the situation in Ukraine and the tasks to be solved during the special military operation. The President of China noted the legitimacy of the actions taken by Russia to protect the fundamental national interests in the face of challenges to its security created by external forces.

http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/68658

Did you seriously just quote the Kremlin’s media release on this blog? Penalty box for you. One month. – Garth

#66 recession already here on 06.15.22 at 5:51 pm

Atlanta FED GDPNow reading today
Latest estimate: 0.0 percent — June 15, 2022

the US is already in Recession

good luck with slaying inflation. you already have STAGFLATION in the US.

no chance this works out well

Recession is consecutive quarters of negative growth. The US is not in recession. – Garth

#67 Penny Henny on 06.15.22 at 5:57 pm

#45 Sail Away on 06.15.22 at 4:45 pm
#38 Penny Henny on 06.15.22 at 3:52 pm
Things slowing down?

“In a sign that the gravy train could stop running at any time, Lawler stated that the Ford is taking steps to prepare for an economic downturn. The main sign of things to come? Late car payments.”

https://jalopnik.com/fords-cost-to-build-the-mach-e-increased-25-000-per-ca-1849065867

——–

Oh my. And, unfortunately for Ford, about 50,000 electric Mustang Mach E cars were just recalled and new deliveries stopped, with no apparent fix.

No biggie, haha: it’s just the battery. Or, should we say, that minor thing that makes the car go?

Not everything is as easy as Tesla makes it look, apparently.

https://www.motortrend.com/news/ford-mustang-mach-e-recall-electric-nhtsa-battery/
////////////////

If you read the accompanying comments you’ll see there was a huge error in the headline. But that is not the point, this is a sign of a US recession coming up and Ford is battening down the hatches.

By the way Cybertruck now not expected until 4Q 2023 at the earliest.
Wanna bet they don’t make that deadline?

#68 Warren-the-lagging_indicator on 06.15.22 at 6:02 pm

Some people sure love to tell stories. I mean that in a good way so don’t get it twist. I did the logical progression from yesterday and let’s just say I am going to pay much more attention to cats!

#69 VladTor on 06.15.22 at 6:03 pm

PENALTY BOX

#70 CJ on 06.15.22 at 6:06 pm

@Garth
>Recession is consecutive quarters of negative growth. The US is not in recession. – Garth

Okay, fine. So in a few days when the next quarter ends with another GDP contraction, we will be formally in a recession. I propose a solid cat picture for the blog post that will inaugurate the recession.

#71 wallflower on 06.15.22 at 6:11 pm

Good one

Did you seriously just quote the Kremlin’s media release on this blog? Penalty box for you. One month. – Garth

#72 Happy Gramps on 06.15.22 at 6:13 pm

Let us get the real estate prices back to the values in 2012. This is probably more realistic for today’s market. All the fools who bought after that deserve to be punished for their excessive spending. Society today expects something for nothing and the youth are expecting more than that. We get back to 2012 pricing then we’re closer to more people affording to purchase a house, or even better, renting one. Then the government can change the rules and charge 50% capital gains tax on any sale, if owned for less than 20 years. If owned over 20 years, the capital gains tax would be 25%.

#73 Inequity on 06.15.22 at 6:19 pm

#65 VladTor

2.3 . 3.0 . 1.9 . 3.1 . 9.8 (from the Russian judge)

#74 The West on 06.15.22 at 6:21 pm

Garth in the comment section:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=i2lKo2QojBQ

LOL

#75 VladTor on 06.15.22 at 6:26 pm

PENALTY BOX

#76 Sail Away on 06.15.22 at 6:34 pm

#67 Penny Henny on 06.15.22 at 5:57 pm

By the way Cybertruck now not expected until 4Q 2023 at the earliest.

Wanna bet they don’t make that deadline?

——–

Probably not. Sort of irrelevant to the Tesla brand in any case.

And it’s silly for actual off-road use. Can you imagine winching that enormously heavy beast out of a beaver dam with a come-along?

#77 Yorkville Renter on 06.15.22 at 6:44 pm

Respect

#78 Faron on 06.15.22 at 6:47 pm

Woopsies:

NEW ZEALAND GDP QOQ ACTUAL -0.2% (FORECAST 0.6%, PREVIOUS 3.0%)

#79 Todd on 06.15.22 at 6:50 pm

The US Fed rate is 1.5% to 1.75% now, peanuts. The biggest move since 1994. Do you know what the interest rates were in 1994, 8% to 9% at minimum. This is a joke. If they were serious about fighting inflation, they would put interest rates to 6% minim right away. If they needed more rate hikes, the to 7%, 8%, 9% until inflation comes down. The Bank of Canada at 1.5% is also a joke. The ECB trying to bu bonds to keep interest rates lower there as their inflation is 8%+ already is also a joke. GIC rates at 4% to 4.5% is also a joke with inflation is Canada at 7% minimum. Gas soon will be $3.00 a liter and everything else will be minimum 10% to 15% higher in 12 months or after that.

#80 Midori on 06.15.22 at 6:52 pm

Have you noticed that the prices for February 2022 from the second table are MUCH lower compared to the prices for February 2022 from the first table?
If you use the prices for February 2022 from the first table to calculate the price drop % in the second table, the numbers will be more impressive.

#81 Doing my Part on 06.15.22 at 6:52 pm

“getting destroyed by XEG”???
It’s up over 83% in the last year, did you buy it yesterday?

#82 DON on 06.15.22 at 6:53 pm

#75 VladTor on 06.15.22 at 6:26 pm
PENALTY BOX

******
At least you didn’t get sent to the Gulags.

#83 Reality is stark on 06.15.22 at 7:00 pm

To #2:
You obviously don’t believe in borrowing your way to prosperity.
Recently they were pushing an ad here in Ontario that we were underspending on education.
No reason and no accountability. The borrowing will continue until the country is broke. You use debt to fix all your problems and then blame it all on the patriarchy when it goes bad.

#84 crowdedelevatorfartz on 06.15.22 at 7:08 pm

@#63 DON
Home sales down 22% in May – CREA

++++
Yesssssssss.

#85 JRoc on 06.15.22 at 7:09 pm

First mortgage was 7.75. I sold in 2017 after a divorce. I am very happy renting a house for $2500 a month in Mississauga. It would cost me double to maintain a mortgage and plus on this place. Good luck to all the new buyers of the past year or two…or three.

#86 Faron on 06.15.22 at 7:11 pm

Turns out Jordan Peterson was wrong in saying that systemic racism is impossible in Canada. Turns out Jordan Peterson is a psychologist and clueless about almost everything non-psychological that he talks about.

‘There is systemic discrimination in our policing’

#87 Yorkville Renter on 06.15.22 at 7:24 pm

#80 – the charts show two different metrics. one is for ‘detached’ and one is ‘all housing types’.

#88 islander on 06.15.22 at 7:27 pm

Chronic low-balling of future condo building repair costs – new owners unprepared for major fee hikes in the coming years.
“It’s like watching a train wreck in slow motion,-I hate to slam my own industry, but over and over I see studies that completely underestimate future costs.”
Sally Thompson :Synergy Partners Consulting Inc.

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/real-estate/article-ontario-condo-reserve-funds-a-train-wreck/

condo owners in Ontario and British Columbia – watch out!

#89 Sail Away on 06.15.22 at 7:28 pm

#84 crowdedelevatorfartz on 06.15.22 at 7:08 pm
@#63 DON

Home sales down 22% in May – CREA

——–

Yesssssssss.

——–

Your dream acreage is getting cheaper. When you’re ready, my watchlist has a few 5 to 20 acre parcels bordering parkland that may be of interest.

There’s no need to own a huge piece for privacy as long as it remains available to your use and it can’t be developed by someone else.

#90 Chameleon on 06.15.22 at 7:39 pm

Felix!

I saw a beautiful great dane being walked and it walked by moving both front and rear paws on same side, like you claimed only cats can go.

When I saw it, I immediately thought of you.

#91 Drill Baby Drill on 06.15.22 at 7:42 pm

Dear Blog God i agree with your assessment except for the cresting of inflation end of 2023. Oil prices are a huge wild card in all of this. If oil prices remain high (ie: above $90/bbl) then inflation will not be tamed by 2023.

#92 Ponzius Pilatus on 06.15.22 at 7:45 pm

Whatever the media spins into the phone call between Xi (she) and Putin, the inconvenient truth is that they are now moving from a king sized bed to a double.
And no doubt that XI is taking more than his share.

#93 Bonobo on 06.15.22 at 7:49 pm

Here’s the Solution:

1) PePe for PM in 3 years.
2) Trump (or DeSantis) for POTUS in 2 years.
3) Keystone XL restarted
4) Energy East Pipeline restarted
5) Northern BC Gas Pipeline restarted
6) Oil Sands Expansion
7) Unhindred Oil Exploration
8) Lock in complete legal system to ensure that the above doesn’t get cancelled in the future even if an NDP government takes power.
9) Work on energy alternatives until they are viable and can replace O&G at some point in the distant future.

Easy…

#94 Tim on 06.15.22 at 7:51 pm

JRoc, I can understand about renting versus owing. I live with a roommate. I split the rent 50%/50%, $1,000 a month each with him. I rented all my life, 22 years now. I don’t need a house. My parents taught me to save my money minimum 20% of gross pay. The only thing I do is save in mostly RRSPs, TFSAs in GICs to the maximum I do it every year. The last 16 years, I wait for peak rates and averaged 3.25%. The TFSA and RRSP have help keep my taxes low, delayed as it does not add to my employment income every year not putting me in a higher tax rate. The RRSP refund also boosts my savings rate to 27% a year of gross income. Now, at 42, 16 years later and $582,000, no debts and no alimony either.

#95 Faron on 06.15.22 at 7:53 pm

#91 Drill Baby Drill on 06.15.22 at 7:42 pm

… If oil prices remain high (ie: above $90/bbl) then inflation will not be tamed by 2023.

Sorry, a positive inflation rate means continual price increases, not just high prices. If the price of oil, and more importantly fuel, stops rising, then that component of inflation goes to 0%. Even if it stops at $120/bbl. A part of the low inflation environment that we experienced since 2015 was the decline in oil price and the stable price of gas and other fuels.

#96 Bitcoin Bro on 06.15.22 at 7:55 pm

Hiring freezes and layoffs have kicked off in Canadian tech. Generally speaking, these are among the precious few jobs in this country with salaries that might actually have a person in a position to buy real estate SW Ontario, Vancouverland, Ottawa, and Montreal.

Another dynamic on top of everything else that is sure to completely ice real estate for the foreseeable future. You’d be out of your mind to try and engage in this market. Even the opportunistic folks with capital will opt to wait this out.

#97 sean on 06.15.22 at 7:57 pm

re: #80 Midori on 06.15.22 at 6:52 pm

Have you noticed that the prices for February 2022 from the second table are MUCH lower compared to the prices for February 2022 from the first table?

———
The first chart is for detached homes, the second is for “all dwelling types” so the values aren’t directly comparable. Notwithstanding that, I wouldn’t place a great deal of trust in ANY number published by the real estate cartel.

I would love to see some REAL anti-trust action from the government regarding the MLS system which realtors use as a stranglehold to extort usurious fees every time a property changes hands. Even if one assumed 100 hours of work (vast overestimate?) at $100/hr to sell a home, that would be $10k in realtor’s fees vs. the $50-$100K which the typical 5% realtor fee on a $1-2M house represents.

#98 Flop… on 06.15.22 at 8:10 pm

Having trouble posting.

I surmise it’s because the moderator sees the capital F and starts flinching.

Faron has used up all the capital F quota the last few days.

I will lean on the old pork slogan from the 80s to rest my case before the blog courts.

Flop, the other white meat…

M47BC

#99 Bezengy on 06.15.22 at 8:10 pm

#50 Stan on 06.15.22 at 4:56 pm
Testing, testing.

First time on this site

Better be good. – Garth

—————————-

Maybe change your name to Hannibal or something that doesn’t trigger us long time readers.

#100 Ponzius Pilatus on 06.15.22 at 8:46 pm

Regarding the Phone call between Xi and Putin:

From: Der Spiegel.

Putin-Telefonat mit Xi
Russland und China vereinbaren intensivere Zusammenarbeit
Beistand für Wladimir Putin von Chinas Staatschef Xi Jinping: Pekings Regime will seine Kooperation mit Russland massiv ausbauen, auch im militärischen Bereich.
15.06.2022, 16.28 Uhr

Die Zusammenarbeit solle »angesichts der weltweiten Wirtschaftssituation, die sich durch die unrechtmäßigen Sanktionen des Westens verkompliziert hat«, verstärkt werden, hieß es weiter. Moskau und Peking wollen den Angaben zufolge ihre Zusammenarbeit unter anderem in den Bereichen Energie, Finanzen, Industrie und Transport verstärken. Putin und Xi hätten zudem über »die Entwicklung der militärischen Beziehungen« gesprochen.
—————————
Interesting is the part “unrechtmaessingen Sanktionen des Westens”.
“Illegal sanctions by the West”

This is a excerpt from The Globe & Mail relating to the same matter.
Quite watered down from the “Der Spiegel” version.
No mentioning of working on “closer military ties”, which is the scary part.

“The Chinese side is willing to work with the Russian side to promote the steady and long-term development of bilateral pragmatic co-operation,” Mr. Xi said.
“China is willing to, together with Russia, continue to support each other on issues concerning core interests and major concerns such as sovereignty and security, [and] intensify strategic co-ordination between the two countries.”
—————————————
And BTW, Der Spiegel has been and still is very critical of Putin in general and of his invasion of Ukraine.

#101 45north on 06.15.22 at 8:52 pm

Can current real estate valuations – up 141% in King or 95% in Caledon (Bunnypatch central) – withstand a 7% mortgage hurdle?

Not a prayer. There is apparently so much further to descend until prices are remotely justified by incomes. Expect growing declines, increased listings, expanded DOM and months of inventory piling up, which will linger far after the CBs have gone dovish again and Putin goes home.

in Canada, the rise in interest rates is politically motivated. Keith Dicker on the Loonie Hour said it’s the orange shirts and the red shirts saying that inflation is killing them.

#102 45north on 06.15.22 at 8:53 pm

Chaddywack Houses in Vancouver still selling close to list and mostly above last year’s assessments.
Sellers are not budging, but there’s always someone who needs to sell (death divorce etc.) which could set new comparables.

BC Assessment makes assessments based on comparables. What the property is worth on July 1. The sellers will see their assessments on January 1, 2023. So will the banks.

#103 Boombox on 06.15.22 at 8:57 pm

#96 Bitcoin Bro on 06.15.22 at 7:55 pm
Hiring freezes and layoffs have kicked off in Canadian tech. Generally speaking, these are among the precious few jobs in this country with salaries that might actually have a person in a position to buy real estate SW Ontario, Vancouverland, Ottawa, and Montreal.

Another dynamic on top of everything else that is sure to completely ice real estate for the foreseeable future. You’d be out of your mind to try and engage in this market. Even the opportunistic folks with capital will opt to wait this out.

—-

No one is mentioning the baby boomers. This was noted by many economists as a big shift when they start passing on and freeing up houses. 58 – 76 years old age range. I think it will start manifesting itself now in the second part of 20s…right?

#104 crowdedelevatorfartz on 06.15.22 at 8:58 pm

@#89 Sail Away
“When you’re ready, my watchlist has a few 5 to 20 acre parcels bordering parkland that may be of interest.”
+++
In the Chilcotins?
Nice country up there but thinking eastern Canuckda.
Hurricanes are way more exciting then endless smokey summers.
:)

#105 Spell Checker on 06.15.22 at 9:04 pm

#82 DON on 06.15.22 at 6:53 pm
#75 VladTor on 06.15.22 at 6:26 pm
PENALTY BOX

******
At least you didn’t get sent to the Gulags.

—-

I think you meant…Goulash.

YUM!

#106 Look out below on 06.15.22 at 9:05 pm

I’m not really sure how you can say with confidence that a recession is likely to be mild and short? We are coming off of the bubble in everything, equities, housing, crypto, nft’s, money printing, free cash for everyone.
Usually when we are heading into a recession we are able to increase money supply and lower interest rates. This is the first time that we are able to do neither, and in all reality have to keep tightening and reducing M2. It doesn’t seem to me that somebody who loses 30% of their equity in a house or has lost 20% plus of their portfolio will be ready to buy a new range rover in 6 months. That sounds like somebody is talking their book.
Still quite a few hikes to come. I wouldn’t be buying the dip yet. How is Europe going to look this winter with no heat? Will that be resolved in 6 months?
Yen is exploding to the downside. China has a massive real estate problem, and either has to quit zero covid or endure years more of lockdowns.
Bonds? Have a look at Italian debt and tell me that will be sorted in 6 months. Also mention that for the first time in ages bonds provided no safety for portfolios during this downturn. TLT off close to 25% YTD – will that be fixed in a short and mild manner?
10-1 negatives to positives. I feel your short and mild call is a bit premature at this point.
I too have suffered losses and would love to be back on the upswing, but I just don’t see short and mild in the cards.

#107 Don on 06.15.22 at 9:33 pm

#7 Søren Angst That is why Garth is Garth.

#108 crowdedelevatorfartz on 06.15.22 at 9:38 pm

3 years.
$15 million dollars.
1800 pages.
The Cullen Commission into Money Laundering in BC

https://vancouver.citynews.ca/2022/06/15/bc-report-money-laundering-public/

While the Commission said that money laundering did not contribute to the BC housing affordability crisis they did note that Minister in charge of Gaming ( Rich Coleman) showed “Willful Blindness” and a “Failure to act” when the RCMP officer in charge of investigating Gaming corruption voiced concerns about huge amounts of cash transactions at casinos.
Rich Coleman made comments that “misinformed the public”.

In 2014 alone over $1.2 BILLION in large amounts of cash were deposited in suspicious circumstances. Late night deposits of millions of dollars, Hundreds of thousands of dollars in $20 bills in duffel bags, etc etc etc.
BC Lottery corp was “ignoring vast sums of cash”.
Casino staff had warned the govt as early as 2008 that Casinos were being used for money laundering.
And there was “a failure to act”.

100 recommendations include.

An independent investigative unit ( Rich Coleman shut down the provincial RCMP money laundering investigation unit after the RCMP officer in charge made serious allegations about money laundering).

BC cannot rely on the Federal govt to investigate.

As this blog has been telling you (now confirmed) stupid BC house prices are a made-in-BC problem. Money laundering had zero discernible impact. – Garth

#109 John on 06.15.22 at 9:40 pm

The price charts showing price changes on the way up and then on the way down from Feb/22 would have been great if they were both showing detached houses or both showing All Dwellings, would have been great to see how much those detached houses fell in that 2nd charr

#110 crowdedelevatorfartz on 06.15.22 at 9:43 pm

@#100 Ponzie’s

“Der Spiegel has been and still is very critical of Putin in general and of his invasion of Ukraine.”

+++
A German Newspaper thats critical of the Russians?
Mein Gott in Himmel!
I guess the Editors remember sitting on their parents laps as they told them stories of the Russian Army marching through Berlin in 1945….

#111 ForTheCBCChallenged on 06.15.22 at 9:46 pm

A persistent bit of misinformation about CBC News reporting continues to bubble up in certain Canadian publications and political venues, including most recently at a special parliamentary committee tasked with examining why the federal government invoked the Emergencies Act amid the convoy protests and border blockades in February.

The claim is that CBC News retracted its stories about foreign donations to the convoy protest movement made via GoFundMe and GiveSendGo.

This is false. We have never retracted these stories, and we stand by our reporting on foreign donations to both GoFundMe and GiveSendGo.

….

CBC’s commitment to the highest journalistic standards and practices was recognized this week by Reporters Without Borders under its Journalism Trust Initiative (JTI) certification. CBC News and our French-language news service, Radio-Canada Info, earned the highest rating for meeting or exceeding an international standard for trustworthy journalism based on independent, external audits. You can learn more about the JTI here and review our certification in detail here.

Our high journalistic standards obligate us to acknowledge and correct any errors we make in our work. We do so with full transparency. But those standards also compel us to call out and challenge misinformation and disinformation — to set the record straight and get the facts right — even when it’s misinformation about our own work.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/editorsblog/cbc-stands-by-convoy-protest-donation-journalism-1.6490129

#112 Michael in-north-york on 06.15.22 at 9:48 pm

#92 Ponzius Pilatus on 06.15.22 at 7:45 pm

Whatever the media spins into the phone call between Xi (she) and Putin, the inconvenient truth is that they are now moving from a king sized bed to a double.
And no doubt that XI is taking more than his share.
===

This is truth, but why is it inconvenient?

Well done, Xi. Take as much as you want.

#113 DON on 06.15.22 at 9:49 pm

#89 Sail Away on 06.15.22 at 7:28 pm
#84 crowdedelevatorfartz on 06.15.22 at 7:08 pm
@#63 DON

Home sales down 22% in May – CREA

——–

Yesssssssss.

——–

Your dream acreage is getting cheaper. When you’re ready, my watchlist has a few 5 to 20 acre parcels bordering parkland that may be of interest.

There’s no need to own a huge piece for privacy as long as it remains available to your use and it can’t be developed by someone else.

*************

That sounds good, property in the interior and the Island? Build a timber frame cabin and no street address just a moat around it.

#114 Ponzius Pilatus on 06.15.22 at 9:53 pm

Lots of Russian players in the Stanley Cup finals.
Banning Russian kids from playing in the under-18 Worlds, but letting the big stars play.
But this year, the winning Russian players are not allowed to take the Cup back to Russia for display.
That should teach Putin not to invade sovereign countries.
I know, Hypocrisy is a hard word to spell

#115 Midnight’s on 06.15.22 at 9:55 pm

DELETED

#116 DON on 06.15.22 at 9:55 pm

#105 Spell Checker on 06.15.22 at 9:04 pm
#82 DON on 06.15.22 at 6:53 pm
#75 VladTor on 06.15.22 at 6:26 pm
PENALTY BOX

******
At least you didn’t get sent to the Gulags.

—-

I think you meant…Goulash.

YUM!

*********
Now I am hungry…

Have you ever been to a gulag Billy?

#117 Phylis on 06.15.22 at 9:58 pm

#50 Stan on 06.15.22 at 4:56 pm
……..so what can you tell us about inflation?

#118 Senator Bluto on 06.15.22 at 9:59 pm

#173 Diamond Dog on 06.15.22 at 1:55 pm
+++++++++++++++++++++++

You lost all credibility when you start quoting Wikipedia as your reference for the energy industry.

Tough to find a more biased anti-energy woke progressive source. Maybe you can quote Greta next time.

You probably also believe that Trump told everyone to drink/inject bleach. Wikipedia says that one is true also.

#119 crowdedelevatorfartz on 06.15.22 at 10:09 pm

@#114 Ponzies Pals Puck Play

Lots of Russian players in the Stanley Cup finals.
Banning Russian kids from playing in the under-18 Worlds, but letting the big stars play.”

+++
I think their living in the US and paying taxes might have more to do with it.
As compared to a bunch of kids waving “Z” jerseys in the face of the fans.

One wonders how many professional Russian hockey players will eventually live here full time to avoid the corruption and extortionist mindset that pervades the govt., the police, and the mafia in mother Russia…..

Just another of thousands of millionaires fleeing “Rooski”

https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2022/06/14/russia-to-lose-15k-millionaires-to-emigration-in-2022-analysis-a77992

Putin can’t be removed soon enough.

#120 Diamond Dog on 06.15.22 at 10:11 pm

“I believe the combination of the rate hikes and lower economic growth will be enough to bring down inflation in the back half of this year.” – Ryan

Why is inflation falling in the back half of this year and not the second half of next year? Let’s assume that Milton Friedman was right and inflation is “always and everywhere, a monetary phenomenon” whereby inflation is caused for no other reason than increases in the money supply. Let’s also put to the test Friedman’s timeline of 2 years between the time the money supply is increased, shows up in people’s pockets and gets priced in, in the form of inflation.

If we use a 2 year timeline between increases in the broad money supply and inflation and note that the Fed was stimulating the economy with near zero rates and buying it’s own treasuries and MBS’s as late as March of this year, if we add 2 years, we get inflation running high into March of 2024!

But is it really a 2 year lag between increases in the money supply and inflation? Is the timeline compressed from 2 year historical norms to say, 18 months when central banks get creative and buy their own bonds to suppress rates and stimulate credit growth further increasing the money supply through the issuance of new securities?

The data points to this, yes.

If we look at when inflation first popped in the U.S., it was April of 2021, rising from 2.6% to 4.2%. When did the Fed first start to aggressively increase the broad money supply? It began with $20 billion a month MBS purchases in July of 2019, allowing older MBS’s to also roll off, as well as buying $ 60 billion worth of short term treasuries beginning in October of 2019, 18+ months before inflation spiked in April of 2021. In other words, the Fed was stimulating the economy on an annualized basis by at least 1 trillion through bond buy backs beginning as early as July of 2019:

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/here-are-5-things-to-know-about-the-surge-in-fed-mortgage-bond-buying-2019-11-16/

The Fed fund rate also fell from 2.4% in June 2019 to 1.55% by Sept 2019 staying @ 1.55% until Jan of 2020, further stimulating the economy “before the pandemic”. The Fed rate was lowered to .65% in Feb of 2020 and near zero in March of 2020. In March of 2020, broad money began it’s most obvious rapid increase in the broad money supply through the Fed buying it’s own bonds & MBS’s (some 4 trillion in 2020) with government deficit spending adding was it nearly 3.5 trillion more Federally? This doesn’t count the rest of the new securities by which money is created in the bond markets during 2020 from the Fed induced everything bubble.

https://www.usinflationcalculator.com/inflation/current-inflation-rates/

To summarize, the Federal reserve began pumping a trillion annualized in stimulus as early as July of 2019, stepping on the gas with each passing month into 2020 (presumably to gas the bubbles to help Trump win the election). Again, if we look at the monthly rise in inflation in 2021:
Feb 1.7%, March 2.6%, April 4.2%, May 5.0%, June 5.4%, July 5.4%, Aug 5.3 % Sept 5.4%, Oct 6.2% Nov 6.8%, Dec 7.0%…

If we look at how U.S. CPI inflation rose considering it’s lag behind Fed stimulus, we’ll see a timeline emerging somewhere between 18 months and 2 years, with inflation popping at the earliest in 18 months. We see a notable correlation at 18+ months from the Fed’s actions in March of 2020 to October of 2021 when inflation pops from the 5’s to end the year at 7%.

So I’ll ask it again. Why would there be such a short lag between stimulus and inflation (Fed was still buying bonds with rates near zero in March, Ryan suggests 9 to 12 months) when the data suggests 18 months to 2 years?

How important is this in establishing the timeline between increases in the money supply and inflation? It’s HUGE. If it’s 18 months or more before inflation drops from this year’s Fed stimulus, high inflation will be around somewhere until Oct 2023. Oct 2023! It begins to soften just before then, 18 months or so from when the Fed began to taper. In other words, we may not see 2% inflation until at the earliest, the first half of 2024. How currencies effect inflation in 2024 at that point is anyone’s guess from there.

You know who else is saying this? (high inflation until the latter half of 2023) El Erian. Erian is saying CPI will be still in the high 5’s to mid 6’s into the latter half of 2023. (he knows)

“We should then see the Fed ‘pivot’ later this year signaling an end to their rate hikes. If the rate hikes do in fact lead to a recession we could be looking at rate cuts later in 2023.” – Ryan

Let’s say the Fed is politicized and is raising rates (finally) to time a Fed induced recession for the mid terms. Mission accomplished, Republicans win both houses. Would the credit markets even have time to respond with defaults this year, it’s doubtful. If an unofficial first quarter recession is triggered in Q4 with the Fed rate at say 3.5%, we could be looking at a halt to rate hikes not because of falling inflation, but because of recession, higher unemployment and systemic risk (housing).

Looking ahead, early 2023 inflation is still high as predicted. Could the Fed then surprise the markets and lower rates early next year? Absolutely, they could. They could drop it potentially from 3.5 to 2.5% but it would be bold if they did. The Fed could try this with inflation still high based on the assumption that if they don’t overstimulate the economy, time is on their side, they could lessen the severity and length of a recession and high inflation would come down late in the year regardless.

The challenge to this thesis is if inflation is still high and the Fed lowers rates, down goes the dollar which would have risen relative to world currencies until the Fed stops it’s hikes presumably late this year. A devaluing dollar in 2023 is a dangerous dollar as it could add further fuel to domestic inflation.

The world’s commodities are all priced in U.S. dollars. Best guess is some 40% of the world’s inflation experienced right now is directly coming from U.S. inflation’s influences on commodity prices explaining why in part, inflation is such a global phenomenon and why it’s so important to think this through, especially with commodity laden Canadian markets to consider.

But I wander. I don’t see the Fed dropping rates from 3.5% to 2.5%(or neutral) in early 2023 unless we had clear systemic risk on the credit side which I would think would take time to emerge. Impacts of lowering the Fed rate on the dollar’s future needs to be given more time than I’ve got.

What is just as possible is a Fed rate stuck at 3.5% in early 2023 with no more room to climb and inflation still running in the 7’s or 8’s with a worsening recession on it’s hands. Minsky moment?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Minsky_moment

#121 espressobob on 06.15.22 at 10:14 pm

Sector plays like commodities can turn on a dime. Timing them is next to impossible. Tough playing catch-up from a loss.

The major indices mitigate the risk through diversification.

Some lessons it seems are best learned the hard way.

#122 Ponzius Pilatus on 06.15.22 at 10:19 pm

#112 Michael in-north-york on 06.15.22 at 9:48 pm
#92 Ponzius Pilatus on 06.15.22 at 7:45 pm

Whatever the media spins into the phone call between Xi (she) and Putin, the inconvenient truth is that they are now moving from a king sized bed to a double.
And no doubt that XI is taking more than his share.
===

This is truth, but why is it inconvenient?

Well done, Xi. Take as much as you want.
————————-
Be careful what you wish for.
Putin is just Xi’s waterboy.
Right now Xi needs Russia’s resources.

#123 Sail Away on 06.15.22 at 10:22 pm

#104 crowdedelevatorfartz on 06.15.22 at 8:58 pm
@#89 Sail Away

“When you’re ready, my watchlist has a few 5 to 20 acre parcels bordering parkland that may be of interest.”

———

In the Chilcotins?
Nice country up there but thinking eastern Canuckda.
Hurricanes are way more exciting then endless smokey summers.
:)

———

Chilcotins, Clearwater, Merritt, Clinton (Loon Lake). Nothing east or on Van Isle currently. The next few years might offer up some gems.

#124 PeterfromCalgary on 06.15.22 at 10:23 pm

Jay Powell did the right thing today. I shockingly high inflation rate requires strong action.

It is still going to be a slow grind to get inflation down because of all the COVID19 stimulus and Putin’s murder spree messing up the world’s food and energy supply.

#125 Ponzius Pilatus on 06.15.22 at 10:26 pm

#119 crowdedelevatorfartz on 06.15.22 at 10:09 pm
@#114 Ponzies Pals Puck Play

Lots of Russian players in the Stanley Cup finals.
Banning Russian kids from playing in the under-18 Worlds, but letting the big stars play.”

+++
I think their living in the US and paying taxes might have more to do with it.
As compared to a bunch of kids waving “Z” jerseys in the face of the fans.

One wonders how many professional Russian hockey players will eventually live here full time to avoid the corruption and extortionist mindset that pervades the govt., the police, and the mafia in mother Russia…..

Just another of thousands of millionaires fleeing “Rooski”

https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2022/06/14/russia-to-lose-15k-millionaires-to-emigration-in-2022-analysis-a77992

Putin can’t be removed soon enough.
————————-
Hush, CEF,
I’m watching the Stanley Cup finals.

#126 Tony on 06.15.22 at 10:34 pm

Re: #11 J on 06.15.22 at 2:31 pm

The stock market just does whatever the bankers want it to do. They had to bring it down for a while to help bring down the inflation rate.

#127 Tony on 06.15.22 at 10:47 pm

Re: #120 Diamond Dog on 06.15.22 at 10:11 pm

Rents should be fully factored into the CPI in America by March 2024. This means the inflation rate could stay high until then.

#128 Km on 06.15.22 at 10:58 pm

What a beautiful dog, she looked very sweet as well.

#129 DON on 06.15.22 at 10:59 pm

#117 Phylis on 06.15.22 at 9:58 pm
#50 Stan on 06.15.22 at 4:56 pm
……..so what can you tell us about inflation?

********
Oh no you didn’t…take cover!

Hey Stan!

#130 Km on 06.15.22 at 11:21 pm

It is great rates will hopefully stay at a meaningful level. However if housing only drop 20 or so percent it is still out of the range for the average person. A house in Surrey is a million, the really terrible part of Surrey and yes there are worse parts of an already awful city.

#131 Trapped on 06.15.22 at 11:37 pm

The fed is trapped – the discount rate remains below the 3-mo t-bill.

You know what that means…

… hard landing

#132 Satori on 06.16.22 at 12:02 am

#128 Mega pay raises on 06.15.22 at 2:40 am

If you think renting is a great idea, get used to it because you might end up doing it forever. It may be cheaper than owning, but that money is gone forever and rents are sky high too.

It’s only cheaper to rent if you don’t already have lots of equity which many Canadians do.
——————————–
Here in the comment section are a ton of long term renters waiting for that second chance to swoop in for up coming half-off housing.

#133 Michael in-north-york on 06.16.22 at 12:07 am

#122 Ponzius Pilatus on 06.15.22 at 10:19 pm

#112 Michael in-north-york on 06.15.22 at 9:48 pm
#92 Ponzius Pilatus on 06.15.22 at 7:45 pm

Whatever the media spins into the phone call between Xi (she) and Putin, the inconvenient truth is that they are now moving from a king sized bed to a double.
And no doubt that XI is taking more than his share.
===

This is truth, but why is it inconvenient?

Well done, Xi. Take as much as you want.
————————-
Be careful what you wish for.
Putin is just Xi’s waterboy.
Right now Xi needs Russia’s resources.
===

All true. Just annoyed enough with Pu, to wish Xi and his country a complete success in their undertaking. Even if that means problems for ourselves down the road.

#134 AlMac on 06.16.22 at 12:07 am

Let’s bookmark this post and see how things play out. I am more pessimistic than Garth and his team members’ outlooks. Oil is looking bullish though.

#135 Jerry Sims on 06.16.22 at 12:17 am

You fail to state why rates were held down for so long and who in fact the greatest beneficiary was when borrowing trillions to buy votes. Government has fail miserably and citizens are paying, more than the outrageous booze tab on Trudeaus recent junket. Is that all it takes for media to tag along, a drunken cruise? Are media sycophants so hung over they can’t report on the midnight passage by Trudeau/Singh of C-11 which strips all Canadians if free speech? Shocking censorship on all levels, shameful, disgusting.

#136 Tom from Mississauga on 06.16.22 at 1:05 am

The boycotts by Schlumberger, Baker Hughes, Halliburton Shell, BP and Exxon are starting to bite Eastern Russian oil production that mostly goes to China. The Russians don’t have the engineers to work the technology so it’ll slowly go off line, probably by Fall it’s gone. Xi is a panicked because the only other oil source is the Persian Gulf and their navy can’t reach. Biden needs to get gas prices down and unfortunately for the rest of the world he can ban oil exports with a Presidential Order, no Congress required, that’s anytime now. Poor NATO and Alberta.

#137 Tom from Mississauga on 06.16.22 at 1:21 am

The possibility that Biden land locks Alberta crude with a Presidential Order increased massively with BP’s sale of Sunrise. Europe will definitely collapse to Russia however if they don’t get US crude. Let’s see who’s more populist, this guy or the previous guy. We’ll know before the midterms.

#138 under the radar on 06.16.22 at 6:18 am

25, 26. As rising rates take more people out of buying, the demand for rentals will soar. Renting is about to become very expensive. Buckle up.

#139 Alex on 06.16.22 at 6:38 am

Garth,

it seems that there are some discrepancies into numbers.

Let’s see fugures from two tables:

Brampton, Feb20 – 968K, Feb22 – 1,608k
Brampton, Feb22 – 1,346k, May22 – 1,146k

Why first row has 1,608k for Feb22 and second row has 1,346k for the same period?

Mississauga, Feb20 – 1,233K, Feb22 – 1,921k
Mississauga, Feb20 – 1,225K, May22 – 1,148k

Why first row has 1,921k for Feb22 and second row has got 1,225k for the same period?

Etc…

#140 Bezengy on 06.16.22 at 7:29 am

My solution to slow inflation? Stop retail theft. Anyone in retail knows that shrinkage (theft) costs about 3 percent of gross sales. Just stop the theft and reduce retail prices by 3 percent.

#141 Jay (Not that one) on 06.16.22 at 7:47 am

You have to admit, it’s pretty funny watching rates reaching 5% so quickly after so many people vowed up and down that they’d never hit 5%…

#142 Concerned Citizen on 06.16.22 at 7:49 am

The Bank of England only raised by 25 basis points this morning. And rumours abound that the ECB is trying to find a way to keep printing to try and keep southern Europe (Italy, Greece) bond yields down. Still printing when official inflation is close to 10% – what could go wrong?

And despite all the kerfuffle, the BoC and Fed still have their policy rates about 7% less than the current official rate of inflation.

I still see no evidence that central banks are serious about fighting inflation. If they actually follow through and get rates to 3-4% by year-end, they will start to regain some credibility. But I remain highly skeptical.

#143 recession already here on 06.16.22 at 8:05 am

Recession is consecutive quarters of negative growth. The US is not in recession. – Garth
__________________________________

1st quarter printed negative.
this quarter will print negative.
that good enough?

“British CPI hit a 40-year high of 9% in April, more than four times the BoE’s 2% target, and the central bank on Thursday raised its forecast to show it peaking slightly above 11% in October when energy bills go up again”.

the British central bank raised rates by 25 bpts to 1.25%. that will certainly slay the inflation dragon.

central banks are completely incompetent.

#144 the Jaguar on 06.16.22 at 8:16 am

David Dodge on inflation and growth:
“We have to move really quickly to (bring inflation down), and … for central banks, that means getting interest rates up to a level where they actually are restrictive rather than just being accommodative for growth,” Dodge said. “And at the same time, we have to allow the rise in prices to do their job, which will be to cut demand where people don’t have enough income — that reduces demand and perhaps some prices. That’s not very nice, but that’s the way the market system works.”

Housing:
“Ultimately this has been expected and forecast for some time — a slowdown to more normal levels of sales activity and a flattening out of prices,” said CREA senior economist Shaun Cathcart in a news release accompanying the data. “What is surprising is how fast we got here. With the now very steep expected pace of Bank of Canada rate hikes, and fixed mortgage rates getting way out in front of those, instead of playing out steadily over two years, that cooling off of sales and prices seems to have mostly played out over the last two months.”

And “Bitcoin has lost about 33 per cent of its value against the U.S. dollar since Friday, sinking more than 50 per cent since the beginning of the year.” Frankly Scarlet….

And for Felix: Disney’s new movie Lightyear and the emergence of Sox, the robotic cat:

‘LIghtyear critic reactions are in and they can’t stop talking about Sox. In fact, they’re gushing more about the robotic cat than they are about Buzz himself. Some call him the true star of the movie and an absolute scene-stealer. One tweet even went so far as to call Sox “one of the best characters Pixar has ever created.”

#145 Diamond Dog on 06.16.22 at 8:29 am

#127 Tony on 06.15.22 at 10:47 pm

Rents should be fully factored into the CPI in America by March 2024. This means the inflation rate could stay high until then.
————————————————————
I don’t see how CPI and core inflation housing costs could be any more butchered to understate inflation in housing than it is now. The lag you speak of, while real, would trend inflation up, not down, but minimally as housing costs in the CPI and core is a butchered number. Let’s expand.

The housing component of CPI is 5.5% which in real terms is a fantasy or cooked. If we read the link below, we’ll get an idea of the changes to the housing component of CPI that has led to lower inflation numbers than what we experience in real life in the U.S.:

https://www.whitehouse.gov/cea/written-materials/2021/09/09/housing-prices-and-inflation/#_ftn1

The link above explains changes to the BLS in 1983 in terms of how housing costs are calculated in CPI (about a third of the CPI) and core inflation (just over 40%). Prior to 1983, BLS calculated CPI: Shelter based on housing prices, mortgage rates, property taxes and insurance, and maintenance costs. Not coincidentally, housing prices tracked closely with CPI up to 1983.

Post 1983 changes to BLS calculations in housing costs captured just the implicit value of services that homeowners “consume” from their own homes—not the asset value of the house as an investment. It is calculated using a subset of the same rental data as the CPI: Rent index, weighted by the price that homeowners think their home (unfurnished and without utilities) can be rented for monthly. – link above

In other words, housing costs in the CPI are a cooked number. Post 1983 metrics allows the Fed to cook up whatever number they wish. Obviously, this cooked number suppresses actual inflation numbers allowing the Fed to run inflationary policy without getting caught blowing housing bubbles. Arguments could be made for greater economic expansion (higher increases in the money supply)… more stimulus, higher government deficits etc. but we should not lose sight of the glaring facts that our current CPI data from the U.S. is a cooked number steeply to the downside, evidenced specifically in how inflation in housing is calculated. The link above lay’s it plain.

Offering further, 70’s metrics would have today’s inflation around 11+% from 8.6%, with this drop coming from changes to the BLS with how inflation is calculated in housing in 1983.

If we look at PPI (Producer Price Index), the inflation number from goods produced in the U.S. is running at 16.8% yoy which is what we see on the shelves (I think it’s higher, but these are U.S. gov numbers). We’ve seen housing values increase by 20% in the U.S. yoy. Mortgage rates have risen from a national average of the low 3’s to 6.28% as of Tuesday. Rents have increased by 17% nationally if we are to believe the numbers in the link below:

https://www.cnet.com/personal-finance/mortgages/rent-increases-by-nearly-20-across-the-us-what-renters-need-to-know/

With these numbers on the street, why on earth does CPI use lowly housing costs at 5.5%? If we factored in a number like 17% with stand alone rentals instead of 5.5%, CPI inflation would rise a further 3.8% than it is now. This would bring CPI up to 12.4%. Ugh.

But I wander. If we used pre 1983 metrics on housing (strong argument there to do so), CPI would be edging closer to 12%. Try to square that with the Fed rate at 1.5 – 1.75% with today’s hike and it just doesn’t compute.

The Fed is way behind in tackling inflation, it looks politically motivated because of the slow rolled response leading into the midterm elections, it makes me shake my head the more I see how we got there and where we are at now but now it’s damage control and anyone, I repeat, anyone looking at the timelines of how long high inflation will last as I’ve laid out earlier (18 months from increases in the money supply to inflation by Fed bond buybacks to 24 months through decreasing rates), how under represented inflation actually is, how limited the Fed is to even respond to it (neutral rates defined as neither growth or recessionary is between 2.5 to 2.75%), the fiscal risks creeping in to this thing… (The U.S. debt clock has Fed/state debt to GDP at 143+%. Yikes)

There is only one way to reduce inflation and that is to stop increasing the money supply. Decreasing the money supply is the only way to arrest the economic destruction inflation this high will do. The longer recession drags on, the higher unemployment numbers rise and credit risks elevate and yet, there isn’t much the Fed can do to break the back of inflation other than to decrease the money supply and induce a recession. I do hope I’ve captured in some respects why Jamie Dimon used “hurricane” to describe what’s coming. There’s no such thing as a soft landing here, it’s a fantasy, there’s simply no easy way out.

This is off topic, but I watched this last night:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=J4qQMoHi0dY

One can take a bead on the economy from the guy above (a bit political but he’s quite often right) or one can take a bead from guys like say Kevin O’Leary, using month’s old indicators from his companies reports to tell him how things are going for us:

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/06/16/kevin-oleary-says-theres-no-evidence-of-a-recession-right-now.html

Who would you rather believe? Polievre? Pierre, who’s telling us that Bitcoin is the new bottoms up economy currency and one Canadians should embrace a mere 2 months ago? Should we really be adopting a currency in practice that does this? Anyone?

https://www.cnbc.com/quotes/BTC.CM=

Should we take our cues from the baby fat puffer who’s never worked a sweat or held a private job in his life? Do we really want to take our talking points from a guy who doesn’t know what he’s talking about, a minimizing exaggerator who doesn’t possess the moral compass it takes to learn to begin to try?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1ZyIjPFOFis&t=100s

But again I wander. Good day, readers.

#146 crowdedelevatorfartz on 06.16.22 at 8:29 am

@#125 Ponzies Puck Play
“I’m watching the Stanley Cup finals.”

+++

Hockey play-offs in mid June should be called.
The Stanley Cup Finally.

#147 Left Coast Loonies on 06.16.22 at 8:30 am

B.C Premier Horgan recently announced
decriminalization for small amounts of heroin, fentanyl, meth etc. The plan is being applauded by Trudeau and Singh. If only such a radical approach was tried elsewhere and we could see the results before we jumped in??

Actually, an identical program has been rolled out and tested in the U.S state of Oregon:

https://www.foxnews.com/us/portland-drug-decriminalization-effort-tragedy

Oregon’s rollout of an identical program has been a self-inflicted disaster. Today, 20% of Oregonians are addicted and property crimes and violent crimes are off the charts. It is difficult to see a more destructive and cruel program.

And Oregon’s solution? They say that they need to do more of it before it will work. If doing a little has led to disaster, why would doing more suddenly work?

Why are woke-progressives like Horgan, Trudeau and Singh so blind to the effects of their programs, from drug treatment, to energy and environment and social programs of all flavors??

I think the answer is simple; woke-progressives don’t see people as people, only as things to be manipulated and controlled.

Someone recently characterized woke-progressivism as a narcissistic personality disorder, as the whole point is to make the woke-progressive feel good about themselves. The damage done to other people kind of, doesn’t really matter, at all.

#148 Ren on 06.16.22 at 8:56 am

BMO just raised all their GIC rates but look at 7 years 4.20%, 10 years 4.45%. Things are getting interesting.

#149 Dharma Bum on 06.16.22 at 9:28 am

#60 Cheese

life is suffering
———————————————————————————————————–

Somebody gets it.

Eliminate desire.

Get of the hedonic treadmill.

#150 Philco on 06.16.22 at 9:33 am

#165 Faron on 06.15.22 at 12:31 pm
—————————————–
If you think there is ANYTHING truthful in the MSM your a super duper idiot. Most the shit on him is made up. There’s a war going on for control. CANT YOU SEE IT……ANYONE?

#151 crowdedelevatorfartz on 06.16.22 at 9:34 am

@#145 Diamond Dog
“I don’t see….” scroll scroll scroll…..scroll scroll scroll…OMG!…. scroll scroll and scroll….

+++
Shorter posts get read.
Tomes of jabberwocky…….don’t.

#152 Sail Away on 06.16.22 at 9:38 am

#147 Left Coast Loonies on 06.16.22 at 8:30 am

B.C Premier Horgan recently announced
decriminalization for small amounts of heroin, fentanyl, meth etc. The plan is being applauded by Trudeau and Singh. If only such a radical approach was tried elsewhere and we could see the results before we jumped in??

Actually, an identical program has been rolled out and tested in the U.S state of Oregon:

———-

Yep. Oregon decriminalized hard drugs Nov 2020.

2021 Oregon had 40% more overdose deaths than the previous year and Portland hit an all-time record for murders.

Hey, cool, with such a successful nearby experiment- let’s try it out in BC!

#153 Hookshott on 06.16.22 at 9:41 am

#108 crowdedelevatorfartz on 06.15.22 at 9:38 pm
3 years.
$15 million dollars.
1800 pages.
The Cullen Commission into Money Laundering in BC

https://vancouver.citynews.ca/2022/06/15/bc-report-money-laundering-public/

While the Commission said that money laundering did not contribute to the BC housing affordability crisis they did note that Minister in charge of Gaming ( Rich Coleman) showed “Willful Blindness” and a “Failure to act” when the RCMP officer in charge of investigating Gaming corruption voiced concerns about huge amounts of cash transactions at casinos.
Rich Coleman made comments that “misinformed the public”.

In 2014 alone over $1.2 BILLION in large amounts of cash were deposited in suspicious circumstances. Late night deposits of millions of dollars, Hundreds of thousands of dollars in $20 bills in duffel bags, etc etc etc.
BC Lottery corp was “ignoring vast sums of cash”.
Casino staff had warned the govt as early as 2008 that Casinos were being used for money laundering.
And there was “a failure to act”.

100 recommendations include.

An independent investigative unit ( Rich Coleman shut down the provincial RCMP money laundering investigation unit after the RCMP officer in charge made serious allegations about money laundering).

BC cannot rely on the Federal govt to investigate.

As this blog has been telling you (now confirmed) stupid BC house prices are a made-in-BC problem. Money laundering had zero discernible impact. – Garth
…….

Not quite. Cullen also states:

Real estate sector is “highly vulnerable” as criminals invest in property to hide their proceeds of crime and realtors don’t report many suspicious transactions as required under federal anti-money-laundering laws.

But criminals do buy property to hide proceeds-of-crime, Cullen said in his report, finding there exists “persistent adherence of some real estate professionals to outdated attitudes and myths about what money laundering is and how it occurs in their industry.”

I am correct. No impact on overall real estate prices from money laundering. Another straw man argument debunked. – Garth

#154 crowdedelevatorfartz on 06.16.22 at 9:42 am

@#147 Left Coast Loons
“Oregon’s rollout of an identical program has been a self-inflicted disaster. Today, 20% of Oregonians are addicted and property crimes and violent crimes are off the charts. It is difficult to see a more destructive and cruel program.”

+++
Yep.
The Fentynal from China keeps flowing in and the politicians here will try anything except mandatory rehab or jail for dealers and users.

Expect more of the same from our spineless gastropods in charge….until things get much much worse.

#155 Philco on 06.16.22 at 9:44 am

The fight for control of power in the USA is incredible and is ripping the country apart. That is BAD for KANADA.
Democracies need clarity and leadership. To many idiots believe the news. We have a complete idiot in charge here.
Like CEF said $60k for plane food. People that put up with that shit need a brain transplant.
I emailed his daffded office for the 50th time and there’s just crickets.
If I was in charge we would not be in the shit we are.

#156 Dharma Bum on 06.16.22 at 9:48 am

#86 Faron

Turns out Jordan Peterson was wrong in saying that systemic racism is impossible in Canada. Turns out Jordan Peterson is a psychologist and clueless about almost everything non-psychological that he talks about.
—————————————————————————————————–

Lies.
Damn Lies.
Statistics.

A Toronto Star article as evidence.

I’ll see your Toronto Star article and raise with a Toronto Sun article.

It presents another side of the coin that says maybe there is no systemic racism and that there is perceived justification for police actions based on other facts.

https://torontosun.com/opinion/columnists/goldstein-policing-report-exposes-flawed-logic-of-race-crime-statistics

Hmmmmmmm….maybe there are psychological reasons involved, after all.

Jordan peterson will sort it out. Canada’s voice of reason.

Newspapers are such reliable sources of argument backups.

#157 Flop… on 06.16.22 at 9:53 am

I think it was in 2018 that I reached across the table after 3 weeks and opened up a letter that said my estranged father had been diagnosed with cancer.

I was counselled on here by people who had had similar experiences to try and reconcile and enjoy whatever time was left as a complete family.

Well, my family is 13,000 kilometres away physically and emotionally the distance remained even greater.

Haven’t spoken to anyone from my side of the family since 2003.

The last 4 years it has gnawed away at me, my defence remained damaged but I knew my family had one secret weapon that I would struggle to deal with.

Last night I got home from work and Mrs Flop told me to sit down, apparently my Dad is back in hospital for the final time and doctors have told him he only has a few days to live.

The secret weapon has been deployed, my fathers dying wish is for me to talk to him for the first time in 20 years, and to hear my voice one last time.

I told my wife I didn’t want to do it in case it turned into a disaster, and I be blamed for his last episode.

Didn’t sleep last night, gonna take the day off work, the feeling of guilt is amazing.

It will hurt, the pain in our voices will be immense, it definitely will be awkward, but I will buckle to his dying demand and try and phone him tonight…

M47BC

#158 Ponzius Pilatus on 06.16.22 at 10:17 am

#146 crowdedelevatorfartz on 06.16.22 at 8:29 am
@#125 Ponzies Puck Play
“I’m watching the Stanley Cup finals.”

+++

Hockey play-offs in mid June should be called.
The Stanley Cup Finally
—————————-
I enjoy every minute.
Something that’s truly Canadian.
Some say, the players are overpaid.
I say, most of them are worth every penny.
Almost every player is playing with some sort of injury, and still play their hearts out.
True grit.

#159 Philco on 06.16.22 at 10:34 am

Ryan the richest dude I met drove into my place in a beater truck. He was worth $50mil 14 years ago Offered me Millions for my property.
For a reason.
Get a Lada.

#160 crowdedelevatorfartz on 06.16.22 at 11:06 am

@#158 Ponzie’s pedantic Player’s Pay preamble
“Almost every player is playing with some sort of injury, and still play their hearts out.”

+++
No one has questioned players’ salaries.
Perhaps there would be fewer injuries if they didn’t smash their bodies and brains up nightly for 10 months of the year.
I question the ridiculous length of the season.
Bastkettball is having the final game tonight.
While The Stanley Cup Finally playoffs continue ad nauseum.
Arizona, Florida, California, etc etc etc are thinking of summer sports not winter sports.

#161 THE DANDADA on 06.16.22 at 11:11 am

Chrystia Freeland to deliver major speech on economy, inflation today.

“The poor and middle-class are suffering so were going to very slowly increase interest rates which is doing nothing to bring prices back down. However raising interets rates will make it more difficult for the poor and middle-class to get loans to buy assets to get ahead so were going to make this a slow and painful process for them for decades to come”

#162 crowdedelevatorfartz on 06.16.22 at 11:11 am

@ Floppie
Probably best to talk to him rather than spend the rest of your life thinking , “what if”.
Good luck buddy.
Either way.
That’s a tough one.

#163 Observer on 06.16.22 at 11:12 am

#157

Hugs Flop.

#164 J on 06.16.22 at 11:27 am

#157 Flop… on 06.16.22 at 9:53 am

——————
Hey Flop, your story resonated with me. My father recently passed away. We had a strained and awkward relationship. For me, just the act of attempting to reconcile prior to his death was meaningful. The willingness to reach out and communicate mattered to me. The content and outcome of our final conversation was perhaps less important. Not sure this applies to you or is helpful, but I wanted to share.

#165 Shawn on 06.16.22 at 11:29 am

Recession Watch

Wholesale sales in Canada for April reported today. Down slightly from March in dollars and in constant dollars (volume). Up a fat 11.5% from the prior year in depreciating current dollars but up only 0.3% in “2012 chained dollars” (essentially a volume measure).

https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/daily-quotidien/220616/t001a-eng.htm

So hanging in not bad as of April but there are signs of weakness (recession?)

https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/daily-quotidien/220616/dq220616a-eng.htm

#166 Old Boot on 06.16.22 at 11:37 am

DELETED (Homophobic)

#167 DON on 06.16.22 at 11:37 am

#162 crowdedelevatorfartz on 06.16.22 at 11:11 am
@ Floppie
Probably best to talk to him rather than spend the rest of your life thinking , “what if”.
Good luck buddy.
Either way.
That’s a tough one.

***********
My mom and dad passed unexpectantly and we did not get the chance to say goodbye. Take the opportunity flop. It will be whay it will be. Thoughts are with yah Buddy!

#168 crowdedelevatorfartz on 06.16.22 at 11:42 am

@#161 The Danada
“Chrystia Freeland to deliver major speech on economy, inflation today.”

+++
My heart skips a beat at the economic utterings from on high (all 4ft 11inches) by our “non finance” Finance Minister.
Either she truly, genuinely, “feels” for the little people.
OR
The Liberal poll numbers are suffering.

One guess as to what has instigated the sudden Liberal display of empathy from the hallowed halls of Govt.

#169 Sail Away on 06.16.22 at 11:43 am

@Flop

Good luck. The agonizing is often worse than the doing.

#170 Faron on 06.16.22 at 11:45 am

#157 Flop… on 06.16.22 at 9:53 am

Sorry to hear it man. Follow your heart and don’t berate yourself if it goes sideways. Be optimistic but keep expectations in check. Hollywood makes us think that profoundly meaningful words are exchanged in these last conversations. Be prepared to talk about the weather and be okay with that, but also don’t be afraid to dig in.

Good luck. You deserve the best.

#171 MaxtheTax on 06.16.22 at 11:46 am

Everybody knew lots of foreign buyers of multi-million dollar real estate in BC were crooked and driving up prices for locals despite Garth’s adamant stance of “it’s not the foreign buyers driving up prices”…Well read it for yourself, now it’s official:

“The BC real estate sector is highly vulnerable to money laundering…” p.16

The report said no impact on house prices. Give it up. There is zero data to support your hate. – Garth

#172 Satori on 06.16.22 at 11:48 am

#157 Flop… on 06.16.22 at 9:53 am
Some people change, and think a lot when they are close to parting. I am sure he has been thinking of you as much as you have of him. I feel for you and hope your call resolves and heals you both…if you get knotted up, just breathe.

#173 Paul on 06.16.22 at 11:54 am

Ren, the 4.45% for 10 years BMO GIC is the simple interest rate annual interest option if you choose but they are compound interest if you do not tell them. However, 4.45% compounded for 10 years is 54.555% total or 5.455% every year. It would make sense with an RRSP, RESP, TFSA since there are no annual T5 slips to pay taxes on. If GIC rates keep going up, the simple interest rate of 4.81% and higher effective compound GIC rate could be 6% to 7% per year.

#174 Faron on 06.16.22 at 11:56 am

#156 Dharma Bum on 06.16.22 at 9:48 am

It’s a quote from the police chief it doesn’t get any clearer ya good. All the star did was report it verbatim. An opinion piece from the Sun cant begin to match that. We are so screwed when half of the country can’t even hear words coming from the indisputable source.

And dharma my arse. Buddhism only works with love and compassion at its heart. For one’s self and others. The dharma part of your handle is a misrepresentation of a belief system you demonstrably understand nothing of.

#175 Diamond Dog on 06.16.22 at 11:59 am

#151 crowdedelevatorfartz on 06.16.22 at 9:34 am

You know you could try criticizing substance over volume, you’ve got it in you. Or perhaps not.

People read this blog to make & save money. To not recognize the value for example in determining how long high inflation will last or what the Fed will do and how stock and bond markets for example (essentially what my comments are about), is like complaining to a teacher or fellow student about reading half a chapter from a textbook for homework because the reading is too hard. Except for the fact that there’s no homework or need to read even, just a need to complain.

I mean, if reading more than 200 words is a challenge, (I get that it will always be for some) there’s always Twitter.

#176 Philco on 06.16.22 at 12:00 pm

DELETED (Anti-vaccine)

#177 VladTor on 06.16.22 at 12:05 pm

PENALTY BOX

#178 Philco on 06.16.22 at 12:06 pm

China ramps up coal power to boost post-lockdown growth. Read story

Yup but T2 will kill you over fuel prices and carbon tax.
To busy controlling you on hand guns and covid.
Kanadians are passisive idiots and he knows it.

#179 Faron on 06.16.22 at 12:11 pm

#154 crowdedelevatorfartz on 06.16.22 at 9:42 am
#152 Sail Away on 06.16.22 at 9:38 am
#147 Left Coast Loonies on 06.16.22 at 8:30 am

By all means, don’t let the facts get in your way.

Opioid deaths rose by a similar amount here in BC from 2020 to 2021 as in Oregon during a time when it was still criminalized in BC that, kinda, you know… debunks the entire basis of your Fox news article. But, you know facts and ideology get kinda mixed up in the Fox news crowd which is why they are so quick to invent that as the case in the left. Mass projection in play.

I never read Fox news and this is one of the reasons why: like many articles online, that one had links embedded. In real news outlets, those links would go to supporting data, reports and other external links. In Fox News…? They go to subject headings in their own website (likely to maintain commercial traffic for themselves).

Extra hilarious, one of the links for Oregon data lead to a subject heading for Washington state. Just a clown show of a “News” organization. What’s extra sad is that the journalist who wrote that article actually did some reporting. There are quotes from relevant agencies and personnel. But, at edit time, the powers that be hacked the thing to pieces and turned it into a piece of far right propaganda.

And, whatever you do, don’t pay any attention to those January 6th hearings. AmIRite?

#180 TheDood on 06.16.22 at 12:21 pm

#111 ForTheCBCChallenged on 06.15.22 at 9:46 pm
A persistent bit of misinformation about CBC News reporting continues to bubble up in certain Canadian publications and political venues, including most recently at a special parliamentary committee tasked with examining why the federal government invoked the Emergencies Act amid the convoy protests and border blockades in February.

The claim is that CBC News retracted its stories about foreign donations to the convoy protest movement made via GoFundMe and GiveSendGo.

This is false. We have never retracted these stories, and we stand by our reporting on foreign donations to both GoFundMe and GiveSendGo.

….

CBC’s commitment to the highest journalistic standards and practices was recognized this week by Reporters Without Borders under its Journalism Trust Initiative (JTI) certification. CBC News and our French-language news service, Radio-Canada Info, earned the highest rating for meeting or exceeding an international standard for trustworthy journalism based on independent, external audits. You can learn more about the JTI here and review our certification in detail here.

Our high journalistic standards obligate us to acknowledge and correct any errors we make in our work. We do so with full transparency. But those standards also compel us to call out and challenge misinformation and disinformation — to set the record straight and get the facts right — even when it’s misinformation about our own work.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/editorsblog/cbc-stands-by-convoy-protest-donation-journalism-1.6490129
_________________________

Am pretty sure the majority of Canada’s populace couldn’t care less what CBC thinks or says.

Can someone explain why these pathetic, unprofitable, organizations – CBC, Air Canada, etc. continue to exist? Do the taxpayers have any say in their continued funding? If not, are there any efforts under way to pull the taxpayer funding from these organizations?

#181 under the radar on 06.16.22 at 12:34 pm

157- find it in you, you will be glad you did.

#182 145 Diamond Dog Condensed Version on 06.16.22 at 12:40 pm

For the benefit of CEF and others:
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>

“I don’t see how CPI and core inflation housing costs could be any more butchered to understate inflation in housing than it is now.

The Fed is way behind in tackling inflation…….
There is only one way to reduce inflation and that is to stop increasing the money supply.”

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>

And there ya go. The most important points summarized. DD just likes to type and read themselves.

#183 Quintilian on 06.16.22 at 12:42 pm

#171 MaxtheTax on 06.16.22 at 11:46 am
“Everybody knew lots of foreign buyers of multi-million dollar real estate in BC were crooked and driving up prices for locals despite Garth’s adamant stance of “it’s not the foreign buyers driving up prices”…Well read it for yourself, now it’s official:

“The BC real estate sector is highly vulnerable to money laundering…” p.16

The report said no impact on house prices. Give it up. There is zero data to support your hate. – Garth”

Garth that is not what the report said.

It did say that money laundering was not the cause of the affordability crisis. But it did not exclude it as being one of the contributors.

It also states that while the politicians cannot be labelled as corrupt, they did ignore the many obvious signs.

The authors or the report gave considerable coverage to RE, which is not a coincidence, read and interpret that as you may.

#184 Old Boot on 06.16.22 at 12:46 pm

#166 Old Boot on 06.16.22 at 11:37 am

DELETED (Homophobic

********

What I posted was explicitly anti-homophobic. Actual homosexuals, like me, are no more likely to report mental illness or far left political views than are heterosexuals.

I’m a lesbian who resents the invasion of explicitly NOT homosexual people (who only exhibit heterosexual behaviours) with far left activist political views(and who, by their own admission are mentally ill) representing themselves as LGBTQ+ in order to force misogynist, homophobic, anti-scientific, queer theory down our throats.

Most adult gay people would agree with me. The inclusion of the TQ+ represents a move away from genuine human rights advocacy, and capitulation to unstable straight people seeking validation of their fetishes and personality disorders.

Self-identified trans and queer people have nothing in common with lesbian, bisexual and gay people, and are causing tolerance for homosexuality to be seriously eroded. The linked essay is entirely pro-homosexual.

https://quillette.com/2022/06/14/progressivism-sexuality-and-mental-illness/

#185 Sail Away on 06.16.22 at 12:46 pm

Ah, it does my heart good to see the shift toward centrism and away from progressives, currently with a lot of momentum in the US and also gaining traction here.

No crazies. Steady, dependable and sober centrists. It’s happening. Finally. Thank goodness.

#186 Ponzius Pilatus on 06.16.22 at 12:47 pm

#160 crowdedelevatorfartz on 06.16.22 at 11:06 am
@#158 Ponzie’s pedantic Player’s Pay preamble
“Almost every player is playing with some sort of injury, and still play their hearts out.”

+++
No one has questioned players’ salaries.
Perhaps there would be fewer injuries if they didn’t smash their bodies and brains up nightly for 10 months of the year.
I question the ridiculous length of the season.
Bastkettball is having the final game tonight.
While The Stanley Cup Finally playoffs continue ad nauseum.
Arizona, Florida, California, etc etc etc are thinking of summer sports not winter sports.
————————
You’re obviously not a fan.
Tickets at 1k. Stadia full.
Another 20k fans outside.
What’s not to like?

#187 Faron on 06.16.22 at 12:47 pm

#153 Hookshott on 06.16.22 at 9:41 am
#108 crowdedelevatorfartz on 06.15.22 at 9:38 pm

I am correct. No impact on overall real estate prices from money laundering. Another straw man argument debunked. – Garth

I agree with Garth here. I went into reading Sam Cooper’s book thinking that it would describe a RE smoking gun. Instead I was left with the impression that money laundering didn’t have much impact on real estate.

However, money laundering is very very real and is a major facilitator for the opioid and other drug trades. That’s where the focus should be, not on real estate.

I’m hardly a moral purist, but commercial gambling and gov’t-run gambling have no place in society. The ratio between the entertainment delivered and the harm done is way way out of line. Provinces are addicted to it because of the revenue. We can talk about bringing it back when the tax brackets of the mid-century are back in place. Not before IMO.

#188 Faron on 06.16.22 at 12:49 pm

#178 Philco on 06.16.22 at 12:06 pm

T2 will kill you over fuel prices and carbon tax.

Justin Trudeau doesn’t control the price of gas and the carbon tax is revenue neutral. Facts bro.

#189 Ponzius Pilatus on 06.16.22 at 1:07 pm

#175 Diamond Dog on 06.16.22 at 11:59 am
#151 crowdedelevatorfartz on 06.16.22 at 9:34 am

You know you could try criticizing substance over volume, you’ve got it in you. Or perhaps not.

People read this blog to make & save money. To not recognize the value for example in determining how long high inflation will last or what the Fed will do and how stock and bond markets for example (essentially what my comments are about), is like complaining to a teacher or fellow student about reading half a chapter from a textbook for homework because the reading is too hard. Except for the fact that there’s no homework or need to read even, just a need to complain.

I mean, if reading more than 200 words is a challenge, (I get that it will always be for some) there’s always Twitter.
—————————
Diamonds are forever

I wonder what your background in finance/economics is.
Would be interesting to know.

#190 Diamond Dog on 06.16.22 at 1:10 pm

#168 crowdedelevatorfartz on 06.16.22 at 11:42 am

Another putdown relating to size, this time Freeland’s height. It’s never really about substance with you is it.

I don’t know how many times you’ve complained about my comments being too long, a dozen times a year or more it seems, maybe 20 or more. Regardless of whether you think your complaints have merit CEF, have you ever once felt that your own complaints will somehow change things? It hasn’t so far… is this why you do it because you know/think you’ll get away with it, it makes you feel like you are in control and long winded comments like mine are your supply?

Take serious note… happy people complain less! Cheerful folks complain more mindfully, more strategically, with goals in mind. This isn’t you, should we be worried?

I also get that reading is a challenge for you, but bear with me:

– Avoid dampening your mood by complaining only rarely

– Complain only in instances where you believe it will affect real and positive change

– Consider whether affirmation or some other strategy will work instead of complaining

– Limit your exposure to complaining by limiting your exposure to complainers

Just trying to help you CEF, you are on a repeater and need a bump.

#191 Ponzius Pilatus on 06.16.22 at 1:15 pm

#168 crowdedelevatorfartz on 06.16.22 at 11:42 am
@#161 The Danada
“Chrystia Freeland to deliver major speech on economy, inflation today.”

+++
My heart skips a beat at the economic utterings from on high (all 4ft 11inches) by our “non finance” Finance Minister.
Either she truly, genuinely, “feels” for the little people.
——————-
The only size that counts is the size of the brain and the heart.
And you’re deficient in both.
And BTW, how tall are you?

#192 THE DANDADA on 06.16.22 at 1:26 pm

Did I just hear that right?

Freeland calling the BOC “irresponsible and incompetent”…..!!!

LOLOLOLOL

What a show!!!

#193 NoName on 06.16.22 at 1:38 pm

#157 Flop… on 06.16.22 at 9:53 am

I am sure that you can do better than my father and i did few days before he suddenly passed away, and we didn’t even argue, i just didn’t have time for him dat day, so you just find some time…

#194 The Regulator on 06.16.22 at 1:51 pm

Natural gas soars 70% in Europe in a week. Why is that? The Freeport LNG terminal explosion in Quintana, Texas last Wednesday didn’t help. But the funny part is that Gazprom restricted gas flows on the Nordstream pipeline for what reason? Because due to Canadian sanctions, Siemens is unable to deliver a compressor from Montreal which was recently overhauled there. Circular firing squad in action. But…but…IT’S PUTIN’S FAULT!!! LOL

#195 jess on 06.16.22 at 1:55 pm

red flags for years

“Bad money drives out good.

Confidential banking documents obtained by OCCRP show how DNB and Nordea, ignoring risks and red flags, banked shady clients at their Baltic branches as they shifted billions in suspicious transactions.
https://www.occrp.org/en/investigations/leaked-audits-show-nordic-banks-dnb-nordea-ignored-money-laundering-red-flags-for-years

=======

Some 840 kilograms of cocaine hidden in boxes of bananas, with a black market value estimated at $84.21 million, was also discovered in the Czech Republic. In this case the drug was accidentally delivered to supermarkets in several Czech cities.

“Supermarket workers found molded cocaine cubes in boxes with bananas,” Czech police tweeted on Friday.

Westinghouse to supply all of Ukraine’s nuclear fuel

Ukraine has signed a deal for the US nuclear power company Westinghouse to supply fuel to all of its atomic power plants in an effort to end the country’s reliance on Russian supplies, Ukraine’s state nuclear company said on Friday.

#196 Sail Away on 06.16.22 at 1:56 pm

#191 Ponzius Pilatus on 06.16.22 at 1:15 pm

The only size that counts is the size of the brain and the heart.

——–

Don’t discount the caboose. And if anyone has a sturdy caboose, it’s our Non-Finance Finance Ministress. Good anchor in high winds. Much like a brick doniker.

#197 Love_The_Cottage on 06.16.22 at 1:59 pm

And the rebalancing is complete. EFA and SPY to get my percentages back in line. Always a question to see if you have the stomach to buy when prices are down. So far, so good, sticking with the long term plan.

#198 The West on 06.16.22 at 2:13 pm

#157 Flop

I’ve dealt with a lot of death. There is a finality to it that is excruciating in the short term but brings peace in the long term.

The fact that your father wants to talk to you means he has suffered your absence.

Whatever circumstances has brought is between the involved parties. Take my word for it as a young man who let pride get in the way of saying goodbye to someone I should have – it was too late and will be for all of eternity. It will be worth the suffering in the short term for your spiritual health.

Go with peace in your heart.

#199 crowdedelevatorfartz on 06.16.22 at 2:14 pm

@#175 Diamond Dawg
“People read this blog to make & save money….”

++++
You forgot to add…”and not to be put to sleep….”

#200 The Regulator on 06.16.22 at 2:15 pm

Russian Ambassador to the E.U. just said : Russia may shut down the Nordstream pipeline to Germany should problems with the repair of turbines continue. Germany is being screwed by Canada, since Canadian sanctions are causing this fiasco. Who to blame? PUTIN DID IT!!!

#201 Faron on 06.16.22 at 2:17 pm

#168 crowdedelevatorfartz on 06.16.22 at 11:42 am
#196 Sail Away on 06.16.22 at 1:56 pm

(all 4ft 11inches)

Don’t discount the caboose. And if anyone has a sturdy caboose, it’s our Non-Finance Finance Ministress. Good anchor in high winds. Much like a brick doniker.

Utterly classless.

Way to address the policies that matter to Canadians. Oh, wait, you are just poking at her looks rather than the substance of the policies she oversees.

This kind of crappy behaviour is what Ustabe talks about when he foretells the fact that the conservative party wont see the light of Parliamentary day any time soon.

Of course, if the Finance Minister was a man you wouldn’t be making fun of their looks. It’s almost a systemically sexist response that you have.

#202 crowdedelevatorfartz on 06.16.22 at 2:19 pm

@#190 Diamond Dawg

Another wordy essay.
and you were doing so well with that abbreviated comment on #175…..what happened?

@#191 Ponzie’s patronizing putdown
“And BTW, how tall are you?”
++++
14.5 hands high ( an old english measurement….look it up!)

#203 LSC on 06.16.22 at 2:21 pm

#188 Faron on 06.16.22 at 12:49 pm

the carbon tax is revenue neutral. Facts bro.
——-
The carbon tax may be revenue neutral, but the consumer still has to pay it at the pump. Collect the tax under the guise of climate change and then redistributed as essentially socialism

#204 The Regulator on 06.16.22 at 2:21 pm

# 195 – jess : And where, pray tell, does the U.S. get a large portion of their uranium from? Why, from Russia, of course.

#205 millmech on 06.16.22 at 2:30 pm

https://www.reddit.com/r/PersonalFinanceCanada/comments/vdp1vd/anyone_else_who_sold_this_year_at_the_high/

#206 Senator Bluto on 06.16.22 at 2:34 pm

#179 Faron on 06.16.22 at 12:11 pm

And, whatever you do, don’t pay any attention to those January 6th hearings. AmIRite?

+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

Are those the hearings that are sponsored by Disney and Starbucks?

I heard that Miley Cyrus will be playing the Half Time Show. She’ll be saddling up Rob Reiner and riding him around while they sing a duet version of “WTF Do I Know?”.

So much truthiness these days.

#207 millmech on 06.16.22 at 2:42 pm

TD Mortgage rates,
4 yr fixed-5.69%
5 yr fixed-6.04%, on special for 5.24% while supplies last

#208 unbalanced on 06.16.22 at 2:53 pm

#196. Sail away . Real classy statement. Let’s pick on someone figure. Sometimes I really wish you WOULD sail away!

#209 DON on 06.16.22 at 3:12 pm

#207 millmech on 06.16.22 at 2:42 pm
TD Mortgage rates,
4 yr fixed-5.69%
5 yr fixed-6.04%, on special for 5.24% while supplies last

*********
No thanks, my realtor/financial advisor
told me to stick with a variable.

He knows someone, who knows someone who might know a friend of a friend who has a relative that used to walk by the Bank of Canada on a daily basis for 40 years.

#210 Faron on 06.16.22 at 3:12 pm

#206 Senator Bluto on 06.16.22 at 2:34 pm

No, silly, I mean the hearings in which republican and democrat witnesses are speaking under oath and at risk of committing perjury and failing to appear under contempt of congress.

Sounds like you are watching RuPaul’s Drag Race. You know, a non-serious consumer spectacle.

#211 Re-Cowtown on 06.16.22 at 3:20 pm

#203 LSC on 06.16.22 at 2:21 pm
#188 Faron on 06.16.22 at 12:49 pm

the carbon tax is revenue neutral. Facts bro.
——-
The carbon tax may be revenue neutral, but the consumer still has to pay it at the pump. Collect the tax under the guise of climate change and then redistributed as essentially socialism.

+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

I’m OK with the feds collecting a carbon tax, as long as they can clearly demonstrate that the climate is moderating because of our payments.

If not, they should be jailed for fraud, just like any other carpet-bagging hucksters.

#212 DON on 06.16.22 at 3:26 pm

from Russia, of course.

#205 millmech on 06.16.22 at 2:30 pm
https://www.reddit.com/r/PersonalFinanceCanada/comments/vdp1vd/anyone_else_who_sold_this_year_at_the_high/
*******

Thanks for the link…reading some of those comments is painful. Find another greaterfool and cut your losses.

#213 crowdedelevatorfartz on 06.16.22 at 3:29 pm

@#201 Faron.
“Finance Minister was a man you wouldn’t be making fun of their looks.”

+++
I guess you don’t remember Joe Clark’s lack of chin.
Or Brian Mulroney’s excess chin.
Or “Tubby” Harper.
It isnt called Public Office for nothing.

#214 DON on 06.16.22 at 3:42 pm

#182 145 Diamond Dog Condensed Version on 06.16.22 at 12:40 pm
For the benefit of CEF and others:
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>

“I don’t see how CPI and core inflation housing costs could be any more butchered to understate inflation in housing than it is now.

The Fed is way behind in tackling inflation…….
There is only one way to reduce inflation and that is to stop increasing the money supply.”

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>

And there ya go. The most important points summarized. DD just likes to type and read themselves.

*******
i don’t mind DD’s long commentary. Over the years Garth has had to repeat many many many times and some people still don’t get it.

#215 yvr_lurker on 06.16.22 at 3:58 pm

I am correct. No impact on overall real estate prices from money laundering. Another straw man argument debunked. –Garth
—————

Nobody was saying that the money laundering was the cause of large scale real estate price escalation. However, what has been made perfectly clear from the report is:

Fintrac is essentially useless in providing any valuable information to authorities about likely illicit financial transactions (high volume and low value). Need a BC-made regulatory body.

Moreover, there are

Of the 100 or so recommendations of the Cullen commission

https://cullencommission.ca/files/reports/CullenCommission-FinalReport-Full.pdf

over 40 itemized recommendations are closely related to the real estate sector: unregulated mortgage brokers, private lenders, real estate firms and agents providing little scrutiny, poor data collection on ownership, and the list goes on and on…. including

“I recommend that the Province work with its federal,
provincial, and territorial partners to ensure that, before the end of 2023, a publicly accessible pan-Canadian corporate benefcial ownership registry is in place”

and recommendation 44:
“I recommend that, as the Province implements new policies and measures against money laundering in real estate, it analyze the impact of those
reforms on housing prices.”

In no way does his report exonerate the influence of money laundering in the real estate sector. Recommendation 44 suggests that there may be some correlation between prices and the effect of new regulations (if implemented).

The standard of proof for any conjecture that money laundering contributed to OVERALL price increases in the real estate in BC was not at all met. We can agree on this. The key word though for those readers who might miss key words is OVERALL; In the view of many educated citizens in this province there is still a possible link between money laundering and certain segments (i.e. high end) of the real estate market.

Looks overall to me like a very important, comprehensive and balanced report. No straw man and no need for anyone to denigrate the report.

Give it up. There is no correlation in BC between money laundering and house prices. My interest in this ends there. – Garth

#216 Barb on 06.16.22 at 4:37 pm

#157 Flop

“but I will buckle to his dying demand and try and phone him tonight…”

————————-
Difficult conversations should be had in person.
Toughest by phone.
It’s worth the immediate visit, believe me please.

#217 Senator Bluto on 06.16.22 at 4:42 pm

#210 Faron on 06.16.22 at 3:12 pm
#206 Senator Bluto on 06.16.22 at 2:34 pm

No, silly, I mean the hearings in which republican and democrat witnesses are speaking under oath and at risk of committing perjury and failing to appear under contempt of congress.

Sounds like you are watching RuPaul’s Drag Race. You know, a non-serious consumer spectacle.

+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

RuPaul’s Drag Race, or the Democrat’s Gaslight Theater.

No wonder everyone is tuning out.

#218 Jurgen Muller on 06.16.22 at 5:34 pm

It doesn’t stop. BMO has new higher residential mortgage interest rates:
https://twitter.com/silberschmelzer/status/1537545425300897792

#219 Ponzitative Tightening on 06.16.22 at 6:05 pm

Are we starting to finally see all this Ponzitative Easing reverse?

#220 Romulus on 06.17.22 at 6:32 am

It makes no sense to me that markets, according to you, will bounce back after the fallout of a potentially major real estate collapse. If this does occur (real estate bubble pop) we will be in so much trouble, that equities will not bounce back for a long while. So both real estate and equities will be pooped. Canadians are heavily indebted. They won’t be spending much and and Americans aren’t much better off. Corporate earnings will be negatively affected. I think this is the early 90s all over again.. maybe worse.