Seriously

Last Friday Mr. Market was giving less than 1-in-5 odds the US Fed would shoulder the bazooka and fire a 75-point rate hike tomorrow. After all, the last time this happened the average Millennial was crawling into furniture and playing with her imaginary friend. That was 1994.

Well, today the odds have swelled to 90%. Momentum is gathering for our CB to do the same next month. So it seems mere weeks now before we see a 5% chartered bank prime. Meanwhile US 30-year mortgages are at 6.13%, and Canadian fivers appear headed for the same plateau. That would put the stress test hurdle at 8% and blow up real estate for a year or two.

As for our topic yesterday?

It’s lights out for the kiddos who gambled on crypto, NFTs, Bored Ape, the canine coin and all of their other make-believe assets. Bitcoin is down 70% from its peak as I write this. Coinbase just announced it’s laying off a fifth of its workforce and Dog only knows how much money the 1.7 million clients of Celsius will kiss off as that platform goes dark. Our old pal Ed Pennock put it this way a few hours ago:

Bitcoin got smoked. Its down to ~$22K USD. It’s going to have ripple effects. El Salvador had switched to Bitcoin. You can bet the Russian Oligarchs (AKA Friends of Putin) had shovelled loads into Crypto. Celsius Froze accounts. Withdrawals and intra-account transfers were halted. That means that even if you had collateral in another account, you couldn’t access it for margin purposes. This has always been our concern. Crypto lives outside the established norms. You don’t know what will happen. Is this the beginning of the Crypto Winter? Maybe the Crypto Climate Change?

By the way, speaking of Russia, it may win the war in Ukraine but will likely default on its bonds and enter a long and dark, lengthy recession, hobbled by sanctions and the cost of a conflict which rendered it a global pariah. A pyrrhic victory indeed.

Well, things suck. Enough said. People who sit on their B&D portfolios will come out of this just fine. Folks with mortgages to arrange or refinance with the bulk of their net worth in leveraged real estate may have more cause for concern. Let’s visit a couple of them now.

First, Bill in Ottawa. Late 20s. He and GF are civil servants. “Our clock keeps ticking,” he says. (So cute.) Mortgage preapproval at 3.9% good ‘til August. What to do?

We’re struggling to figure out if we’re better off buying towards the end of the summer with a low rate, or waiting longer for the protracted multi-year pullback. Part of the dynamic is that we’re both pushing 30, and would like to be settled somewhere family friendly with more space so we can start that next chapter of our lives. We don’t want to wait forever as the biological clock keeps ticking. To rent that kind of space here would be comparable to the carrying costs of a mortgage anyway, so building equity seems like the better deal.

If you want a house, Billy, buy one. But don’t blame biology. Second, in no way is owning cheaper than, or even equivalent to, leasing. You cannot equate a mortgage payment to rent since that ignores huge closing costs, ownership costs, property taxes, financing renewals, opportunity cost of the down payment and sale costs. Third, this property plop has just started. Ottawa will not be immune. You may be reaching for a falling knife. Mortgage rates will keep rising. House values will keep falling. Waiting seems prudent. Meanwhile, marry her.

To Halifax now. Here’s Chris. Common question.

My mortgage locked in at 1.92% for 4 more years. Owe approx.. 320k, house value $600k (accounting for a 20% correction). Do I take advantage of lump sump payments (while at a low rate) on my mortgage now before renewal in 4 years (possibly renewing 5%+)? Or leave that money to going to my equity investments?

No brainer, Chris. You’ve been gifted essentially free money for the next four years. Why on earth would you pay it back when inflation is 7%? Stay invested. This financial market storm will end far sooner than the real estate decline. Use some of your gains over four years to pay down the principal upon renewal. You’re being foggy and emotional now. Get over it.

To the Kooteneys, where Tom is thinking about diddling with his cheap house loan so he can load up on financial assets. Should he?

I’ve got a mortgage currently of about $222,000, 1.49%, matures April 2025.  The bank says I can remortgage at 2.05% to get 50K or 2.43% for 100K. That’s for 5 years. It’s a “blended” type of rate, which apparently means no penalty to break it. One catch is it takes 4 weeks to process, so who knows where the market will be by then. Worth doing?

No. Millions would give a limb to have your mortgage rate for the next three years. Sure you can blend-&-extend and increase the principal at a still-good rate, but not without risk. Financial markets are volatile and recession risks elevated. Moreover, mortgage interest is not fully deductible when funds are used to invest. You could end up increasing the cost and size of a loan on a property that is falling in value. These are days to eschew debt.

In godless Toronto, Chaim asks if seven years of being a faithful reader merits getting some advice. “You rock,” he says. How can I resist?

We recently bought a house in TO yes its super expensive, but we got a deal and it has 2 units that will cover half the mortgage… well it was supposed to cover half the mortgage. I have a lock on a 5 year fixed at 4% (Expiring end of July) or I can go variable. Should I go fixed or variable? Help, please!

Variable is variable. It goes up. Right now a VRM is 3.2%. By the autumn it’s likely to be 4.7%. Beyond that we can only guess. So if you have a fiver locked in a 4%, how is this even a discussion? What most do not realize is that even if VRM payments remain stable in a rising rate environment, principal repayment is slashed and the nut at renewal time is greater. If the rate differential between VRM and fixed is relatively small, and valid only for a few months, fugeddaboutit.

Finally, for giggles, we’ll leave you with this chart of the last real estate correction in the country’s largest market. This pattern was also repeated in the US – when 2005 house prices were not regained until over a decade later. We have only begun this trip.

About the picture: “I’ve been reading your blog for at least 6 years now and I wanted to share some anecdotal evidence of the real estate crash with you and the readers,” writes Marc. “My wife and I just pulled the trigger on a property and were positively shocked at how “good” of a price we got it for. We are extremely happy with the property that we ended up with given the craziness of the real estate market over the last few years (particularly the last). The detached house was purchased in Scarborough, fully renovated with a rentable basement. Comparable properties were going for 1.6-1.8m at the peak (~January)…we got it for 1.3m…Some might say that was still too high for a property that may devalue even more over the next few years, and they may be right…however…it feels like a steal to us. On top of all that, the seller accepted the home inspection condition and then dropped the price another 15k after the necessary repairs were made evident. All in all, this house basically sold for about 20% less than it would’ve just a few months ago. We were ecstatic and shocked that the offer was accepted, especially with a home inspection! Our realtor seemed genuinely surprised as well. I wanted to share this story with you to perhaps provide those sitting on the sidelines, waiting to buy a property with some hope. Keep saving as we did, and only make reasonable offers with home inspections and you may actually get something! This is Logan – a one-of-a-kind doggo enjoying a quality stick on a beautiful spring day in Ontario. His favourite things were to chase squirrels, bark at rollerbladers, and eat anything and everything.”

182 comments ↓

#1 LH on 06.14.22 at 2:23 pm

Yes the 2022 drawdown hurts, but higher Schumpterian interest rates are long term healthier for the economy. Reduce leverage and enjoy the ride.

#2 Dave on 06.14.22 at 2:32 pm

If inflation is transitory, driven in the most part by the screwed up supply chains and the war in Ukraine, then why wouldn’t rates peak in a few years and then either flatline or trend down?

#3 J on 06.14.22 at 2:36 pm

Seems to be many greater fools in residential real estate, crypto, and NFT’s lately.

Interestingly, wikipedia has an entry on Greater Fool Theory:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Greater_fool_theory

#4 McSteve on 06.14.22 at 2:48 pm

So – I have a 2.45% mortgage for the next 4 years and change. Does it actually make sense to buy GICs this summer and fall for 5+% and apply against the mortgage upon maturity?

Are GICs actually a viable investment again?

#5 The Regulator on 06.14.22 at 2:48 pm

Even though Russia’s economy may contract up to 15 % this year, the Ruble has not turned to rubble. Exports of oil and gas will go east (China), and south (India). In fact, Africa, Asia, South America, and the Middle East are not siding with the colonial west in their sanction tantrum. Who is really being punished by sanctions? Look in your collective mirrors, peoplekind of the late, great west.

Trollski. – Garth

#6 Sail Away on 06.14.22 at 2:48 pm

Crank those interest rates.

I eagerly await the day when asset allocations are once again evaluated based on bond yields per Benjamin Graham.

Or even… imagine this… when RRSP-backed mortgages make actual economic sense.

Here’s the thing: for those with significant assets, yield has a much greater impact than inflation.

Assume the following hypothetical scenario: 20% inflation, 10% bond yield, $10M in assets, $200k annual spending.

Each year, assets increase by $1M, while spending increases by $40k for a +$960k benefit. Bring it on… well, hypothetically.

#7 Søren Angst on 06.14.22 at 2:49 pm

I liked the giggle chart.

Includes a recession. BoC did not care. Rates during the giggle chart period (click MAX to see the 90’s):

https://tradingeconomics.com/canada/interest-rate#:~:text=Interest%20Rate%20in%20Canada%20averaged,percent%20in%20April%20of%202009.

Recent Comments that the BoC will fold and it will be back to normal end of year, low rates, etc.

Scratch that Delusional Dream:

“The bottom line is we will get inflation back to 2%. We’ll do what’s necessary to get there”

https://twitter.com/JusticeQueen6/status/1536557504569790465

– BoC Deputy Governor Paul Beaudry, Jun 3, 2022

#8 Non-Voter on 06.14.22 at 2:50 pm

#186 The West on 06.14.22 at 1:42 pm
#104 Neonelements on 06.13.22 at 7:52 pm

#98 The West

Why vote at all then?

—————————
We vote because it gives us the right to b*tch. If you don’t participate then you have should not complain about unwanted results.

—————————

That is absolutely wrong logic.

Those who vote cause these incompetent people to get in.

Non-Voters cased none of this. Ipso facto, non-voters are THE ONLY ONES entitled to complain.

Here, let George Carlin explain it to you….

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xIraCchPDhk

#9 Johnny Debt on 06.14.22 at 2:55 pm

Canadians…

180% Consumer debt.

Magenta Capital Corp., one of Canada’s largest private mortgage lenders, has suspended new loan applications until September.

Will you Canadians even have enough money left over after paying all your interest only loads to go out and see Pirates 6?

#10 The Regulator on 06.14.22 at 2:58 pm

What excuses will our leaders use when the s**t hits the fan come winter? When people need to choose between eating and not freezing to death? Will they shift blame from themselves with their go to “its Putin’s fault”? Or will these spineless wannabe’s look in the mirror? My guess is they take the yellow bellied cowards’ way out : Start a war.

#11 Yukon Elvis on 06.14.22 at 2:58 pm

By the way, speaking of Russia, it may win the war in Ukraine but will likely default on its bonds and enter a long and dark, lengthy recession, hobbled by sanctions and the cost of a conflict which rendered it a global pariah. A pyrrhic victory indeed.
++++++++++++++++++

Russia collapsed twice in the twentieth century, in 1917 and in 1990. It collapsed internally both times. It may collapse again in the near future.

#12 Søren Angst on 06.14.22 at 2:59 pm

Me still trying to get back onto my dinosaur today. I am still incredulous.

——————-

Decided to look up June dividend distributions for some of my stock holdings today. A wow month.

Apr dividend annualized came in at 32.1%. No way I can beat that I thought that month. Then May came in at 33.1%. Then I’m thinking no way, horseshoes up my derriere. Never happen again.

June:

37.2%

Fell off of my *armchair*
[dinosaur, since I’m a Paleo]

YTD average dividend yield, annualized = 28.7%.

Holy Holopchi Batman 🦇
[AB boy, Slava Ukraini]

Expense ratios high on my oil stuff. Oil ETF is 0.72% but comes with a YTD Return of almost 44% and an 8.34% dividend yield paid qtrly. Oil ETN is 0.85% with a YTD Return of 28.8% and a +21% dividend yield paid monthly (June was +45%).

COSTLY when compared to an ETF like VFV with an Expense Ratio of 0.08%, then again, that comes with it a YTD Return of nearly -20% and a 1.12% dividend yield.

You DO get what you pay for.
[except for Cdn RE…sorry, couldn’t resist]

—————–

High yield dividends keeping my Threadbare Portfolio in the + positive during recent US/Cdn Mr. Market swings + Garth et. al. advice, admonitions.

—–

US Fed rate hike tomorrow. Hope it is more than 0.5%. Sensing Mr. Market will like it if it is more (get it over with, slay inflation faster). Fingers crossed.

#13 Overheardyou on 06.14.22 at 2:59 pm

Looks like Dog help us if we enter a recession…

#14 Caleb on 06.14.22 at 3:02 pm

So was that a yes or no a few days ago for DRV (NYSE) and HRED (TSX) for being a good ETF?

#15 T Rex and the dinosaur clique on 06.14.22 at 3:07 pm

Not my experience with real estate.

I have found it is a rock solid investment that returns better than anything else I have ever tried out, provided you treat it with the respect it deserves.

I have known folks who have lost everything in real estate. They all have had the same thing in common. They got too greedy. Borrowing on thinner and thinner margins, 100% financing through HELOCs and second, third, tenth income properties. When the markets turned, they were crushed. Compounding failures. One house losing 20% of its value, you can recover.

10 houses, not so much.

I can track the course of my dealings with real estate back to 1978, when I bought my first house for $52,500.00

That house today still exists. It most recently changed hands for $2,345,000.00

I haven’t owned it since 1989.

In my lifetime I have earned roughly $2,500,000.00 before taxes, roughly $1,700,000 after tax, in employment income. That is from 30 years’ worth of full time work.

From real estate, from that first $52,500.00 house bought way back in 1978, I have earned $2,700,000.00

After taxes, well it’s the same. $2,700,000.00. All of it was tax sheltered.

I was fortunate to never need, or use, a mortgage. Leverage destroys your ability to earn money from real estate. Live in a crappy neighbourhood, live in a smaller community, do anything you can to avoid leveraged real estate purchases. The leverage destroys your ability to earn money from the asset.

Lost investment opportunity? Maybe. However, I have two paid for houses currently. I can live in either one, for free. My monthly carrying costs are property tax and utilities.

You can’t get that from renting and running a portfolio.

My entire lifetime employment earnings, after taxes, to date, are not enough to purchase the two houses I currently own.

So it is incorrect to trash real estate as an investment class. It is actually very lucrative, if managed correctly.

Most people just don’t manage it very well. They make the same mistakes, over and over again. Buying highly leveraged properties in popular neighbourhoods during all time price run ups, and then panic selling into downturns.

Avoiding value properties because they are currently unpopular. Not understanding the fundamental metrics of successful real estate investing:

Use cash to purchase outwardly unattractive properties, with good internals, in neighbourhoods that are not currently popular, but which will experience changes which will make them popular in the future.

The ten year plan: if your real estate purchase requires a return on investment in less than 10 years, it is impractical and not likely to succeed. If you can’t own the property for ten years, without any upswing in the price, don’t buy it. Real estate investment takes time.

Do not leverage. Cash purchases only. If you can’t pay cash, don’t buy it.

#16 Prince Polo on 06.14.22 at 3:10 pm

The cool kids don’t use so many vowels.
Srsly?
Srsly!

#17 Shawn on 06.14.22 at 3:11 pm

Inflation Math

#6 Sail Away on 06.14.22 at 2:48 pm
Crank those interest rates.

I eagerly await the day when asset allocations are once again evaluated based on bond yields per Benjamin Graham.

Or even… imagine this… when RRSP-backed mortgages make actual economic sense.

Here’s the thing: for those with significant assets, yield has a much greater impact than inflation.

Assume the following hypothetical scenario: 20% inflation, 10% bond yield, $10M in assets, $200k annual spending.

Each year, assets increase by $1M, while spending increases by $40k for a +$960k benefit. Bring it on… well, hypothetically.

****************************************
Maybe think a little harder about that math.

The amount of goods and services that the $10 million bond portfolio could buy is declining $2 million in the first year in your scenario.

I think Graham and Buffett would both agree that earning 10% when inflation is 20% is going backwards fast. Buffett has written precisely that circa 1970’s.

I’ll be the first to admit that we tend to think in our minds that a 2022 dollar after inflation is the same as a pre-inflation dollar. It’s got the same name. But it buys less.

Someone likes to say A dollar is a Dollar.

1956 says, no you’re wrong, your dollar is my ten cents.

#18 Faron on 06.14.22 at 3:14 pm

#191 steve on 06.14.22 at 2:44 pm

That’s why there is a mantra in the community – Do your own research.

So, in order to be useful, people have to become “expert” in this “money”? And you wonder why sticking to dollars is the obvious choice?

#19 crowdedelevatorfartz on 06.14.22 at 3:17 pm

@#10 The Regurgitator
“My guess is they take the yellow bellied cowards’ way out : Start a war.”

+++
Nah, we’ll just join Ukraine in the one Russia started.

Is your Kompromat cheque in the mail?

#20 Andrew on 06.14.22 at 3:20 pm

The CFO of Celsius – the crypto “bank” that just froze all of its accounts – is none other than Rod Bolger, ex-CFO of RBC. I thought Canadian banking execs were supposed to be risk averse!

#21 Squire on 06.14.22 at 3:20 pm

#5 The Regulator on 06.14.22 at 2:48 pm
Even though Russia’s economy may contract up to 15 % this year, the Ruble has not turned to rubble. Exports of oil and gas will go east (China), and south (India). In fact, Africa, Asia, South America, and the Middle East are not siding with the colonial west in their sanction tantrum. Who is really being punished by sanctions? Look in your collective mirrors, peoplekind of the late, great west.

Trollski. – Garth
——————-

That’s hilarious. How many Roubles are your potatoes now ? LOL
Empty malls, no jobs. Yep, doing well there I see.

#22 $400m of pension money on 06.14.22 at 3:21 pm

Celcius.

$400m.

Pension money.

That really deserves a second look.

This wasn’t an investment.

It was theft of hard working people’s money.

It was transferred somewhere by someone.

It was then “disappeared”.

Coincidence, right? …that hard working people’s money was put at risk by some financial guru, and in a blink…it disappeared.

Legal theft. Gotta love it.

#23 Søren Angst on 06.14.22 at 3:21 pm

#11 Yukon Elvis

Agree.

Same thing occurred to me in late Feb when Ukraine doing well and Russia to me, repeating past historical errors that led to internal collapse and regime change…the years you note.

Then I came across this ditty by a level headed Economist that argues the exact same thing – of course longer winded but in my view, gets it right. History will repeat for Russia. The parallels to 2022 are irrefutable.

Russia’s Economy: Rise & Fall of a Superpower
15:49 min incl. video chapters

https://youtu.be/2F4x2-rVkIk?t=3

#24 Dr. Evil on 06.14.22 at 3:22 pm

#2 Dave on 06.14.22 at 2:32 pm
If inflation is transitory, driven in the most part by the screwed up supply chains and the war in Ukraine, then why wouldn’t rates peak in a few years and then either flatline or trend down?

++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

Because I printed up $157 trillion gajillion bazillion dollars and gave the money to everyone for doing nothing.

The good news? Everyone is now a millionaire. The bad news? A big Mac costs $1 million.

You’re welcome.

#25 Faron on 06.14.22 at 3:28 pm

#22 $400m of pension money on 06.14.22 at 3:21 pm

Celcius.

$400m.

It was $150M, get it right. 0.04% of the holdings of the pension fund.

Very poor due diligence given how risky Celsius was known to be, but a fund like that should have exposure to potentially convex returns.

#26 Ray Skunk on 06.14.22 at 3:36 pm

If Billy and his squeeze are part of Trudeau’s valueless, vote-buying 25% growth in the civil service – they would well be advised to sit this one out. Politics or no politics, nobody escapes this mess in three years time.

If they provide some worth – carry on.

#27 COVID Variant Math on 06.14.22 at 3:37 pm

#15 T Rex and the dinosaur clique on 06.14.22 at 3:07 pm
Not my experience with real estate.
+++++++++++++++++++++++++

I’m not going to argue that you’re wrong, but I will argue that you had no idea that any of what occurred would occur. Pure luck at best and confirmation bias at worst.

For example, the news programs always dig up some bozo who correctly predicted the meltdown of 2009 or run a story on a goldfish who’s predicted the last five Super Bowl champs.

The 300 other bozos who missed the 2009 meltdown didn’t get interviewed, and the 300 losing goldfish got flushed.

None of what you said helps predict the future. At best it’s a “sure-fire system” for winning at roulette. And it works. Until it doesn’t.

#28 Caffeine Monkey on 06.14.22 at 3:42 pm

The Fed is under tremendous pressure to not overshoot and try to land the plane gently on the Hudson instead of crashing nose down. Given the Fed’s miscalculation of starting their tightening cycle way late, I’m not terribly confident that they have Sully Sullenberger’s deft hands.

#29 GIC? on 06.14.22 at 3:42 pm

What are the highest % 5 and 10 year GICs out there?

…with a safe solid issuer.

#30 Alloyhorse rider on 06.14.22 at 3:47 pm

I’ve never bought crypto and sold the rental property last year, so – meh!

What I really wants to know is when the bottom is in, so I can buy moar stawks! Rock on, Garth!

#31 Linda on 06.14.22 at 3:51 pm

May ‘Logan’ enjoy his new home:)

Kooteney Tom presumably was ready to pay higher mortgage payments in return for investment capital. Any reason why Tom couldn’t take the money budgeted for higher mortgage costs & invest it? It might not be a big up front investment of $50K or $100K, but it would still be better than nothing & over 5 years could add up to quite a nice chunk of change.

I don’t what to think about Bill in Ottawa. The claim rent would be comparable to purchasing makes me wonder just what kind of digs he & his squeeze are looking at. Ottawa rents are high & available rentals are few & far between but nonetheless should indeed be a more affordable housing option than purchasing – unless they happen upon a steal of a deal, say someone who must sell immediately for half the current going rate in a highly desirable neighborhood.

#32 Spring Fwd on 06.14.22 at 3:53 pm

My guess?

.50 tomorrow though .75 would be lovely and I’d be ecstatic at a big fat 1.0 pumpola. Break out head gear on Bay street manana if that happens.

Let’s really see how “serious” they are about inflation.

Btw, say good night to Japan and their YEN experiment. Glad we didn’t go down the same financial hole…wait!

#33 JSS on 06.14.22 at 3:59 pm

A wonderful day to buy Canadian banks and the S&P500.
Look ahead in 1-2 years.

#34 JacqueShellacque on 06.14.22 at 4:01 pm

Russia isn’t the only government that will collapse. I can think of a certain government many of us here are familiar with, the world’s largest sub-sovereign borrower, that has 4 out of 5 of its teacher’s unions with expiring contracts August 31st. Interest on its debt was $12 billion in 2018, which they adorably forecast to go up to $16 billion in 2025, which is of course a fantasy (although I’m sure the pencilnecks responsible for their budget stress tested these numbers…). It’ll get ugly, and worse, in ways that can’t yet be predicted.

#35 Søren Angst on 06.14.22 at 4:14 pm

#15 T Rex and the dinosaur clique

1978
S&P 500 Index = 96.11
Toronto Home Avg Price = $67,333

2022
S&P 500 Index = 3,743 (today, 3900-4300 in May)
Toronto Home Avg Price = $1,233,74 (May 1-31)

No. of Years, n = 44

Solve for i, the compound annual rate of return where FV = P x (1+i)^n

Future Value, FV = 2022 numbers
Principal, P = 1978 numbers

Result, compound annual rate of return:

S&P 500 = 8.68% *
Toronto Home Avg Price = 6.83%

2022:
https://storeys.com/gta-home-prices-flat-may-2022-trreb/#:~:text=GTA%20Home%20Prices%20Have%20Fallen%20Nearly%2010%25%20From%20Their%202022%20Peak,-Written%20By&text=The%20bite%20of%20rising%20mortgage,prices%20continue%20to%20trend%20downward.

1978:
https://trreb.ca/files/market-stats/market-watch/historic.pdf

S&P 500 Google on your own.

———————–

* Without all the general futurescape mucking about in RE you talk about.

#36 Sail Away on 06.14.22 at 4:16 pm

Hey, cool. Wokeism. This Victoria coffee shop is happy to serve up a little employment discrimination with your latte:

https://www.cheknews.ca/victoria-coffee-shop-faces-backlash-for-deprioritizing-the-hiring-of-white-cis-males-1049562/

#37 catzndogz on 06.14.22 at 4:17 pm

#15 T Rex – nice humblebrag. You made $$$ by being the right age the right time. Don’t brag about it.

#38 Søren Angst on 06.14.22 at 4:23 pm

#36 Sail Away

THAT was good.

People never learn that stereotypes, labels never work out well in the long run. Hackles.

Keep track SA to see if go woke, go broke holds true in this case.

#39 Shawn on 06.14.22 at 4:25 pm

OntariOWE?

#34 JacqueShellacque on 06.14.22 at 4:01 pm
Russia isn’t the only government that will collapse. I can think of a certain government many of us here are familiar with, the world’s largest sub-sovereign borrower, that has 4 out of 5 of its teacher’s unions with expiring contracts August 31st. Interest on its debt was $12 billion in 2018, which they adorably forecast to go up to $16 billion in 2025, which is of course a fantasy (although I’m sure the pencilnecks responsible for their budget stress tested these numbers…). It’ll get ugly, and worse, in ways that can’t yet be predicted.

**************************************
Sounds bad. Is Ontario for sale? Alberta might be able to buy it. Or maybe just some of that huge north west part of Ontario. We’ll pay off your debt for a vast chunk of your province.

Or just move to Alberta to escape the debt.

#40 Faron on 06.14.22 at 4:27 pm

#195 Steven on 06.14.22 at 3:13 pm

I’m still really early.

Well, you have used all the words (“zoom out”, “really early”, “the hardest asset”) without any variation that might otherwise suggest you aren’t just parroting people who have made money off of you. Good job.

Blockchain technology is very, very useful. Bitcoin proper? Meh.

Also, this is funny:

Meanwhile the local currency in said country is depreciating at a rate of 70% per annum.

First, which country ’cause mystery country doesn’t lend credibility?

Regardless, the funny part is that you do realize that bitcoin depreciated by 75% annualized this year, right (down more than 50% in less than half a year)? Are you sending money to El Salvador? Oh, wait, they use the dollar. Their currency is appreciating while all the poor suckers who transact in bitcoin purely have lost half of their purchasing power.

#190 Steve on 06.14.22 at 2:36 pm

How can someone seize twelve words that are in my head?

I dunno, ask Assad’s henchmen, they seem pretty good at getting people to do what they want.

When you transfer crypto to your pal in the country of mystery, do you or they use a wallet or service of some kind? Yes of course you do. Those are hosted sites that are easily firewalled by a national entity that has interest in doing so.

How you describe your access to Bitcoin, how you describe the Bitcoin algorithm, and from basic knowledge of Bitcoin, it’s a cryptographic system. i.e. Bitcoin is Crypto. It’s not all of Crypto, but it’s in the family.

People like you are why many of us are convinced that Bitcoin is on its way to zero one day.

#41 Faron on 06.14.22 at 4:35 pm

#36 Sail Away on 06.14.22 at 4:16 pm

Ach, you were doing so well.

Buddy, they aren’t coming for you.

They aren’t coming for your job.

It’s ooookaaaaayyyy.

#42 The Original Jake on 06.14.22 at 4:38 pm

Leon Cooperman says the S&P will fall a total of 40% peak to trough with a recession kicking in next year. That means the S&P has another 20% to fall. Woah, that’s extreme.

Meanwhile Jeremy Siegel says buying now will reward investors in a year’s time.

I think it’s somewhere in between. We’ve got a little more pain ahead but the market bottom is getting close.

#43 SHANE GALLANT on 06.14.22 at 4:41 pm

All Fixed Rate Mortgages Increasing: Highest Rates in 14 Years

As advertised all Fixed Rates have begun their move upwards

By next week most conventional 5 – Yr Fixed Rates will have a 5 in front of them

5.19% and 5.29% will be common advertised Rates

Mr Butler on Twitter moments ago

It was inevitable. – Garth

#44 The Regulator on 06.14.22 at 4:50 pm

# 11 – Yukkie Elvis : Time will tell.
# 17 – Fart-Bot : Durak!
# 21 – Squatter : $10.00 to buy a teen burger in Chetwynd, no fries. Ti durak!

#45 Sail Away on 06.14.22 at 5:01 pm

#24 Faron on 06.13.22 at 3:40 pm
#39 Faron on 06.13.22 at 4:13 pm
#48 Faron on 06.13.22 at 4:45 pm
#59 Faron on 06.13.22 at 5:19 pm
#81 Faron on 06.13.22 at 6:46 pm
#98 Faron on 06.13.22 at 7:28 pm
#115 Faron on 06.13.22 at 9:07 pm
#171 Faron on 06.14.22 at 11:22 am
#173 Faron on 06.14.22 at 11:30 am
#187 Faron on 06.14.22 at 2:00 pm
#188 Faron on 06.14.22 at 2:09 pm
#192 Faron on 06.14.22 at 2:55 pm
#193 Faron on 06.14.22 at 2:58 pm
#194 Faron on 06.14.22 at 3:08 pm
#18 Faron on 06.14.22 at 3:14 pm
#25 Faron on 06.14.22 at 3:28 pm
#40 Faron on 06.14.22 at 4:27 pm
#41 Faron on 06.14.22 at 4:35 pm

#46 Diamond Dog on 06.14.22 at 5:02 pm

PPI came out today. Just parsing through them now…

https://www.bls.gov/pPI/

Producer prices of goods rose from last month at 16.8% from 12 months ago for May. April was 16.3%.

Services went down from 8.1% in April to 4.8% annualized in May. This is another reflection of a slowing economy and defensive consumer behavior. The change in these numbers are a direct reflection of inflation, in particular due to rising transportation & energy costs (and Amazon). Transportation and warehousing services rose a whopping 2.9% month over month. Annualized, it’s 34.8%! Overall, PPI dropped to 10.8% from April’s 11% inflation, basically unchanged.

In the U.S., 30 year mortgages are pushing past 6%, in some cases doubling from the start of the year. New housing starts needless to say, have cratered. We see it in the price of lumber, now down below $ 600 from the $1,100+ we saw a mere 3 months ago:

https://www.cnbc.com/video/2022/06/13/30-year-mortgage-passes-6percent.html

U.S. 30 year mortgages pushing past 6% is a big deal. Housing sales and housing starts have fallen off a cliff. Fed rate hikes are sure to reverse the wealth effect from housing.

Basically unreported yesterday was the 2 and 10 year bonds inverted again. This is the second time this year it’s happened… it means it’s getting pretty hard to deny what’s coming at this point, it’s a strong signal toward recession which, I’ll say it again, Q4 is the first quarter of an official recession. I still think Q3 will be positive but time will tell.

As for Crypto, Garth laid it out well enough, it’s not backed by anything. It’s essentially completely unregulated. Smarter investor minds than me (Buffet & Munger to name a couple) having, ad libbing for them here, compared Crytpo to a scourge and pox on the economy, a complete regulatory fail of a so called industry that should have never been allowed to exist. This should tell us something.

If we look at the 5 year Bitcoin chart:

https://www.cnbc.com/quotes/BTC.CM=

What we’ll be looking at is a support price below $10,000. If we combine a U.S. recession with a dramatic collapse in Bitcoin value and some eye popping Crypto defaults exposing the Ponzi’s and Pyramid’s for what they are when sellers try to cash out en masse, the bottom for Bitcoin could be $ 6,000 or less just based on a 5 year chart. And, Bitcoin is the strongest of the bunch. Do readers follow?

As for the rest of the wanna be meme’s, it’s as though we have 12,000+ Crypto’s looking for that perfect formula of float, burn rate and service costs of which, none have yet to successfully compete with Fiat currencies. Because they can’t. Because it’s an imitation trying to compete with the real thing. Just ask El Salvador.

Is Crypto a gamblers fantasy, a get rich quick fad long in the tooth? It is. It’s like pretending Zuckerberg’s Metaverse will adopt dozens of Crypto’s for it’s virtual facebook sometime in the 2030’s… maybe… if it ever gets off the ground… and for some reason doesn’t use it’s own tokens if it does. Y’know?

By the way… here are 2 so called experts with money that you should avoid taking advice from as though they spread the plague. Take a wild guess who they are:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vqkC_XcxxJg

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1ZyIjPFOFis

#47 Søren Angst on 06.14.22 at 5:05 pm

#42 The Original Jake

I ‘dunno about the bottom yet.

I don’t think anyone knows.

Mr. Market will remain skittish until the US Fed proves it can slay inflation with a soft landing (vis-à-vis recession). It’s really that simple.

That’s a ways off. Inflation historically a tough and long lasting phenom to stomp out.

S&P 500 Index has been irrelevant to my Threadbare Portfolio. Even after todays Mr. Market drops, save the Nasdaq which basically broke even, I recacl’d my YTD overall annual return after today’s close:

+16.6%

So you know, depends how you are investing. I’m in it for the cash flow from dividends (retired Paleo here) so as long as the bottom does not drop out, couldn’t care less.

I will say that I have put buying on hold for a month until US Fed rate hikes action/reaction clearer.

#48 The Regulator on 06.14.22 at 5:06 pm

# 19 – Fart-Bot : Who is we? Are you willing to send your sons and daughters to die in a war? Or someone else’s? Very naive thinking on your part, which is par for the course.

#49 Pain_Trade on 06.14.22 at 5:07 pm

Transitory…
Soft landing…
Softish landing…
and my favorite quote from 2017…’I don’t see a financial Crisis occuring in our lifetimes’ Ummm, yeah ok – if like you are as old and crusty as Al Greenspan or Yoda.

#50 Penny Henny on 06.14.22 at 5:08 pm

#195 Steven on 06.14.22 at 3:13 pm
Faro,

I often doubt myself and worry about being too late to bitcoin. However, I enjoy these discussions because it makes me realize that I’m still really early.

Thank you.

Steve

/////////////////

Game. Set. Match.

Faron, jack of all trades master of none.

#51 tbone on 06.14.22 at 5:09 pm

# 29 GIC

Tangerine has a 1 & 3 year with decent rate .
The rate will be going up again soon .
They used to be ING before Scotia bought them .
I have an account sitting in cash there right now .
I used them for the last 25 years.

TD bank stock pays a 3.72 % dividend right now and you arent locked in . Of course your principal amount will fluctuate , hopefully upwards over time.

ZWU offers a 7.16 % dividend
ZWB offers a 6 % dividend
The principal will fluctuate also with these ETF`s
Check with your advisor if these are suitable for you .

#52 Faron on 06.14.22 at 5:10 pm

Here’s a quick brief on the rise of white nationalism, it’s roots in recent history, where it’s headed and how to begin to curtail it. This arose in discussion of the Patriot Front activity in Idaho, but these groups are present in Canada. The Great Replacement is espoused by Pat King and was an element at the Ottawa truck convoy.

This kind of homophobic, white nationalism is a much more dire threat to stability and safety in Canada than one small business making a bad choice in a hiring call.

#53 Warren-the-lagging_indicator on 06.14.22 at 5:12 pm

Well, this feels like we are pretty close to a bottom. Stocks that is. In other news, I did not really realize they literally meant that most men act like dogs,<-; because they do for the most part. What does it all mean?

#54 Yukon Elvis on 06.14.22 at 5:20 pm

#23 Søren Angst on 06.14.22 at 3:21 pm
#11 Yukon Elvis

Agree.

Same thing occurred to me in late Feb when Ukraine doing well and Russia to me, repeating past historical errors that led to internal collapse and regime change…the years you note.

Then I came across this ditty by a level headed Economist that argues the exact same thing – of course longer winded but in my view, gets it right. History will repeat for Russia. The parallels to 2022 are irrefutable.

Russia’s Economy: Rise & Fall of a Superpower
15:49 min incl. video chapters

https://youtu.be/2F4x2-rVkIk?t=3
++++++++++++++++
Stalin rose from the 1917 collapse. Putin rose from the 1990 collapse. Scary times ahead.

#55 Bitcoin is worth $0 on 06.14.22 at 5:21 pm

Why are you lamenting the demise of digital garbage?

REAL Men and women use REAL MONEY to INVEST in REAL LAND and REAL RESOURCES like REAL GOLD, COPPER, POTASH, etc.

Why would Bitcoin be valued high when the cost of owning it was intrinsically ZERO?

Do you know how much it costs to explore for gold in Northern Ontario? $1M to diamond drill and you’re not even guaranteed to find commercial quantities of gold.

Bitcoin and NFT should be ZERO in value. There is no intrinsic value like minerals and potash.

#56 Yukon Elvis on 06.14.22 at 5:25 pm

#45 Sail Away on 06.14.22 at 5:01 pm

#24 Faron on 06.13.22 at 3:40 pm
#39 Faron on 06.13.22 at 4:13 pm
#48 Faron on 06.13.22 at 4:45 pm
#59 Faron on 06.13.22 at 5:19 pm
#81 Faron on 06.13.22 at 6:46 pm
#98 Faron on 06.13.22 at 7:28 pm
#115 Faron on 06.13.22 at 9:07 pm
#171 Faron on 06.14.22 at 11:22 am
#173 Faron on 06.14.22 at 11:30 am
#187 Faron on 06.14.22 at 2:00 pm
#188 Faron on 06.14.22 at 2:09 pm
#192 Faron on 06.14.22 at 2:55 pm
#193 Faron on 06.14.22 at 2:58 pm
#194 Faron on 06.14.22 at 3:08 pm
#18 Faron on 06.14.22 at 3:14 pm
#25 Faron on 06.14.22 at 3:28 pm
#40 Faron on 06.14.22 at 4:27 pm
#41 Faron on 06.14.22 at 4:35 pm
++++++++++++++++++++++

Nurse Diesel is looking for him. She is not in a good mood. I think they are gonna change his meds again.

#57 Faron on 06.14.22 at 5:30 pm

#50 Penny Henny on 06.14.22 at 5:08 pm

Dude doesn’t understand his chosen asset and can’t comprehend why he’s so far off base so resulted to a childish retort that amused you, of course.

#45 Sail Away on 06.14.22 at 5:01 pm

Yes? You don’t like what I’m writing? Taking apart Sail Away misinformation? Very well then.

#58 I'mshort_corpdebt on 06.14.22 at 5:35 pm

@JSS
‘A wonderful day to buy Canadian banks and the S&P500.
Look ahead in 1-2 years.’
——————————————————————
I’m looking at a beautiful Head&Shoulder forming and the next 2-3 months.Should cover my new Audi on order.

#59 Penny Henny on 06.14.22 at 5:37 pm

#6 Sail Away on 06.14.22 at 2:48 pm
Crank those interest rates.

I eagerly await the day when asset allocations are once again evaluated based on bond yields per Benjamin Graham.

Or even… imagine this… when RRSP-backed mortgages make actual economic sense.

Here’s the thing: for those with significant assets, yield has a much greater impact than inflation.

Assume the following hypothetical scenario: 20% inflation, 10% bond yield, $10M in assets, $200k annual spending.

Each year, assets increase by $1M, while spending increases by $40k for a +$960k benefit. Bring it on… well, hypothetically.
////////////////

Let’s examine this hypothesis.
You start with $10M and $200K annual spending. This will last you 50 years.

After year one your $10M (not including spent monies) has increased to $11M while spending has increased to $240K.

$11M/240K= 45.83 years of spending.

Nope. doesn’t work.

#60 Yukon Elvis on 06.14.22 at 5:49 pm

DELETED

#61 Penny Henny on 06.14.22 at 5:52 pm

#24 Faron on 06.13.22 at 3:40 pm
#39 Faron on 06.13.22 at 4:13 pm
#48 Faron on 06.13.22 at 4:45 pm
#59 Faron on 06.13.22 at 5:19 pm
#81 Faron on 06.13.22 at 6:46 pm
#98 Faron on 06.13.22 at 7:28 pm
#115 Faron on 06.13.22 at 9:07 pm
#171 Faron on 06.14.22 at 11:22 am
#173 Faron on 06.14.22 at 11:30 am
#187 Faron on 06.14.22 at 2:00 pm
#188 Faron on 06.14.22 at 2:09 pm
#192 Faron on 06.14.22 at 2:55 pm
#193 Faron on 06.14.22 at 2:58 pm
#194 Faron on 06.14.22 at 3:08 pm
#18 Faron on 06.14.22 at 3:14 pm
#25 Faron on 06.14.22 at 3:28 pm
#40 Faron on 06.14.22 at 4:27 pm
#41 Faron on 06.14.22 at 4:35 pm

////////////////

Full moon. Really?
How odd.

#62 Reality is stark on 06.14.22 at 5:52 pm

To the guy that paid 1.3 when the place was 1.8 at the peak you overpaid by $400,000.
Take the top price at the peak and multiply by .5, that is what the house is worth.
$400,000 is a lot of coin to a lot of people.
It’s usually better in your jeans rather than watching it burn in the fireplace.
To each his own.

#63 crowdedelevatorfartz on 06.14.22 at 5:54 pm

@#48 The Regurgitator
“Are you willing to send your sons and daughters to die in a war? ”

+++
It hasn’t seemed to bother Putin.
How many Russian soldiers dead?
10,000?
15,000?

I can’t wait to see the outcome when the babushka’s finally realize their sons aren’t coming home and Putin lied, lied lied.
Putin better find a deep hole to crawl in and hide or his head will be on a Pike in front of the Kremlin as Navalny is sworn in.

#64 conan on 06.14.22 at 6:03 pm

The effect on real estate values will be historical in nature. Houses went full tulip in a near zero interest rate environment. For most it will be easy come, easy go, but for others, it will be absolutely economically devastating.

How they stop the potential contagion is anyone’s guess. By itself the RE crash is not a disaster, but mixed in with supply chain issues, an expensive war that looks like it is going suck blood and treasure, it could be.

#65 Barb on 06.14.22 at 6:07 pm

I read GreaterFool for investment and general market knowledge. And the lovely doggie photos. And our host’s humorous anecdotes.

And I learn what a *cis male* is.
Bonus?

#66 cuke and tomato picker on 06.14.22 at 6:08 pm

Great .75 is good news. Avoided crypto because I was
not smart enough to understand it. Did not buy cannibis
because I would not lower myself.

#67 Diamond Dog on 06.14.22 at 6:13 pm

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/06/14/30-year-mortgage-rate-surges-to-6point28percent-up-from-5point5percent-just-a-week-ago.html

Looks like 30 year mortgages in the U.S. priced in a .75% Fed rate hike in the last week. The average of 30’s is now 6.28%, up from 5.5% a week ago.

“On a $400,000 home, with a 20% down payment, the monthly mortgage payment went from $1,399 at the start of January to $1,976 today, a difference of $577. That does not include homeowners insurance nor property taxes.

It also does not include the fact that the home is about 20% more expensive than it was a year ago.” – CNBC

Ouch. Of course prices will come down, listings will swell and once highly coveted real estate will be shunned like unwashable VD, the same way real estate has become in Canada here. Welcome to the world of illiquidity. As one might suspect, the moon of borrowing one’s way to wealth is now in wane with more inflation triggered Fed hikes to come.

#68 Michael in-north-york on 06.14.22 at 6:13 pm

Yep, let’s keep the Russia sanctions on! If they didn’t work, then their little trolls like #5 wouldn’t be coming here and complaining. They wouldn’t care.

They are coming and squeaking, means the sanctions are hurting. Good job!

#69 $150m USD of pension money on 06.14.22 at 6:14 pm

#25 Faron on 06.14.22 at 3:28 pm
#22 $400m of pension money on 06.14.22 at 3:21 pm

Celcius.

$400m.

It was $150M, get it right. 0.04% of the holdings of the pension fund.

Very poor due diligence given how risky Celsius was known to be, but a fund like that should have exposure to potentially convex returns.

—–

$150m indeed. USD.

You can always spin what looks like a scam into the write off category…cost of doing doing business category….just 0.04%. No big deal. I know.

#70 T Rex and the dinosaur clique on 06.14.22 at 6:15 pm

RE: “By the way, speaking of Russia, it may win the war in Ukraine but will likely default on its bonds and enter a long and dark, lengthy recession, hobbled by sanctions and the cost of a conflict which rendered it a global pariah. A pyrrhic victory indeed.”

While this may be the most “fair” outcome (depending on whom you ask) it is likely not going to be the actual outcome.

The Ukraine war is concentrated in separatist regions. Areas that do not want to be part of Ukraine and which were trying to align themselves with Russia.

The USA uses the same tactic that Russia used in these regions. Find folks who support you and who are against the central government, then wage a “freedom war” to overthrow the central government and support the “freedom fighters” who want to join you instead (Join Russia in this case, not the USA).

They took a page right out of the old Imperialist playbook with this one.

On the other side, you had an increasingly right wing movement in Ukraine, determined to preserve the entire country against the separatists. Things were already quite ugly in the East, especially near the Russian border, well before the war broke out.

What likely will happen is the Liberal socialists who currently run the world (though it looks like not for much longer) will attempt to turn Russia into a Pariah state.

They will receive little support for this, as Russia is full of natural resources which the entire world needs. We will find that China ignores sanctions and trades with Russia as they please. Other countries will follow, as will their industries.

Russia may actually fare better for having invaded Ukraine, than if they had not. They have established a “bright line” in terms of what they can do, without consequence. They have essentially threatened the USA with nuclear weapons, and the USA backed down. They have drawn a new line in Eastern Europe, behind which the Western powers dare not cross. They have established their borders, and they have moved those borders Westward.

The above is not an endorsement of Russia, nor an endorsement of Ukraine. I remain neutral in conflicts at all times. It is otherwise impossible to understand them, or to accurately record them for history.

It would appear to me that Russia will exit the conflict in better shape than they went in, and that the Liberal Socialists who have ruled the world for the last 19 years or so, have suffered a major blow, though they don’t seem to have felt it yet.

Who are you? – Garth

#71 Reality Check on 06.14.22 at 6:19 pm

This pattern was also repeated in the US – when 2005 house prices were not regained until over a decade later
—————
And…….house values in the US in 2005, by every usual valuation metric, we’re massively lower than current house values in Canada.

But in Canada we’re sooooo special so we warrant “special” house valuations. Remember pre 2005 Canadian house valuations were below US valuation, then all of a sudden we became”special” and somehow warranted valuations far exceeding the US.

#72 DomPerignon on 06.14.22 at 6:20 pm

DELETED

#73 Penny Henny on 06.14.22 at 6:23 pm

#195 Steven on 06.14.22 at 3:13 pm
Faro,

I often doubt myself and worry about being too late to bitcoin. However, I enjoy these discussions because it makes me realize that I’m still really early.

Thank you.

Steve

/////////////////

Faron refers to this as a childish retort.
I thought it was quite cordial.

Faron what is the name of your affliction again?
(See the difference, that was childish)

#74 Linda on 06.14.22 at 6:24 pm

#39 ‘Shawn’ – you may wish to check on just how much debt the province of Alberta currently has. While the province recently announced a balanced budget due to higher than expected oil & gas revenues, there is still debt. The Fraser Institute claims it is around $69 billion; news articles in early 2021 pegged it at $98 billion, forecast to rise to $115 billion by mid-year. So before Alberta offers to buy Ontario, might be wise to pay off the mortgage at home first.

#75 Dr V on 06.14.22 at 6:28 pm

Chris

$320K, 1.92% 4 yrs

Advise to keep investments and use gains to pay down
debt in 4 years

Tom – 3 options

$222k, 1.49%, 3 years – start with $0 invested
$272k, 2.05% 5 yr – start with $50k invested
$322k, 2.43% 5 yr – start with $100k invested
Advise to keep with current mortgage.

Hmmmm.

You are counting on gains in Chris’ portfolio to pay down
debt at the end of 4 years, but warn Tom of risks of
borrowing to invest. They both share the same risk of
their investments losing value.

There is basically no rate difference between Chris’
situation and Tom’s second option ($50k invested now).

I’d have to know the all the personal details in order to make a recommendation.

#76 Airfix on 06.14.22 at 6:29 pm

#57 Faron on 06.14.22 at 5:30 pm

Just go away.

#77 Senator Blutarsky on 06.14.22 at 6:32 pm

#44 The Regulator on 06.14.22 at 4:50 pm

# 11 – Yukkie Elvis : Time will tell.
# 17 – Fart-Bot : Durak!
# 21 – Squatter : $10.00 to buy a teen burger in Chetwynd, no fries. Ti durak!
++++++++++++++++

i te chorney gidko. ide du sraka.

#78 Skeptical on 06.14.22 at 6:38 pm

@ #15 T Rex and the dinosaur clique

So…you locked all you gains in a house over 30 years and you’re proud of it? 30 years of work & waiting for the house to appreciate means you’ve wasted most of your best, healthiest years. So, if you’re 30 when you bought the house, you waited until 30 years later, when you’re 60 to sell and cash in, since you can’t just sell a brick to pay for living expenses. It’s all or nothing. A portfolio would’ve paid you a passive income to work less or stop working during this time and not waste your youth. Best, youngest, healthiest years are behind you now. All due to the house. Congrats. I’m glad I’m not you.

#79 I don’t know on 06.14.22 at 6:38 pm

In the 80’s our population was 15 million less than it is now, and we have not built anywhere near as many houses to keep up.

The mad dash from November to February was to lock in low rates (and carry debt in quickly devaluing dollars). Demand was pulled forward and will take a while to catch up, but it will.

Re Russia: their “victory” is a shadow of what they planned in February. The costs were huge, and aside from some gains in eastern Ukraine, every other objective was a complete failure. They won’t be able to hold on to any land for long either. They don’t have the men and resources for a guerrilla war. They played their card early, as did many other countries, and now the strategy is out in the open. Japan (worlds third largest economy) recently decided to re militarize, and is getting close to South Korea and Vietnam (of all places). Finland joining nato was another massive geopolitical shift. Expect more of these types of events moving forward.

IDK

#80 Facts Matter on 06.14.22 at 6:46 pm

We love idiots that pay too much
We always buy at the bottom of the market

#81 NorthOf49 on 06.14.22 at 6:47 pm

#5 The Regulator on 06.14.22 at 2:48 pm

Even though Russia’s economy may contract up to 15 % this year, the Ruble has not turned to rubble. Exports of oil and gas will go east (China), and south (India). In fact, Africa, Asia, South America, and the Middle East are not siding with the colonial west in their sanction tantrum. Who is really being punished by sanctions? Look in your collective mirrors, peoplekind of the late, great west.

Trollski. – Garth

——————————————————-

Help me out Garth, other than Reddit-level name calling what facts do you have that Russia’s victory will be pyrrhic. Clearly sanctions haven’t slowed Russia’s markets or the ascent of the ruble, or even prevented oligarchs from using private planes to travel Europe as reported today by German paper Welt am Sonntag. On top of that, The New York Times today reported that Russia earned what is very likely a record 93 billion euros in revenue from exports of oil, gas and coal in the first 100 days of the invasion. Regarding bond defaults, isn’t it more the case that Russia still has the ability to service it’s debt obligations but this is being blocked by new US sanctions that won’t allow Wall St to handle transactions? Won’t this only hurt the lenders and investment banks while Russia’s maintains its credit ratings globally (ie. China and India lenders will step in)?

I get that Russia will have big bill to pay when the war ends but a lengthy recession, how so?

#82 Shawn on 06.14.22 at 6:48 pm

Alberta’s debt level

#74 Linda on 06.14.22 at 6:24 pm

#39 ‘Shawn’ – you may wish to check on just how much debt the province of Alberta currently has. While the province recently announced a balanced budget due to higher than expected oil & gas revenues, there is still debt. The Fraser Institute claims it is around $69 billion; news articles in early 2021 pegged it at $98 billion, forecast to rise to $115 billion by mid-year. So before Alberta offers to buy Ontario, might be wise to pay off the mortgage at home first.

****************************************

Instead of rising to $115, the latest update was down to $95 billion and it is falling like a rock now as oil prices stay high. Sad that we reduced the corporate tax rate to 8% from 12% in a give away but even still.

But good advice, maybe we start smaller by buying PEI. Or Newfoundland which is basically broke due to a stunningly stupid hydro project called Muskrat Falls. At least with the Churchill Falls debacle deal they only lost potential mega revenue, this time they are losing their shirts and have been partly bailed out by the feds. And by the way what happened with Churchill Falls is they failed to predict the massive inflation that followed. They thought a dollar was a dollar, not a dime.

Or maybe we buy Cape Breton which hates Halifax. Cape Breton wants to control its own share of equalization payments. Instead of rep by population they want welfare by population. May as well come to the source (yeah I know equalization really comes from Ottawa and only indirectly from Alberta).

It was Nova Scotia (my birth province) forsaking me during COVID that turned me from a Canadian first, second and only into now an Albertan Canadian and it is enjoyable.

#83 crowdedelevatorfartz on 06.14.22 at 6:52 pm

@#45 Sail Away
re Faron.

++++

Alas tis true.
Faron has usurped Fartzy.
The King is dead.

Haiku over.

#84 T-Rev on 06.14.22 at 7:00 pm

Great chart from TREB. I was still into HeMan action figures when the last bubble burst, and well into a whole new type of toys by the time prices recovered. Had no idea the melt was as prolonged as that.

Question for everyone who was around during those times: Was the bubble/crash of 1989 limited to Toronto, or were other markets affected? What was the impact on the broader Canadian economy and other housing markets, if any? I feel like this time more of the country is involved, and with RE being a national obsession at this point, it will have far reaching impacts and I’d like to know if there’s any parallels or lessons from the last crash.

#85 Faron on 06.14.22 at 7:08 pm

#69 $150m USD of pension money on 06.14.22 at 6:14 pm

$150m indeed. USD.

You can always spin what looks like a scam into the write off category…cost of doing doing business category….just 0.04%. No big deal. I know.

I’m not excusing CDPQ. There were lots of warning signs that Celsius had done some stupid stuff. But the facts matter. If you are going to audit the 0.04% of allocation to potentially fraudulent Celsius, then you are probably missing the bigger frauds in the portfolio.

Also, the pension fund’s performance has been a steady 9.6% yearly over the past 10 years (not including 2022). CDPQ isn’t mishandling the money, not by a long shot.

#86 Jason on 06.14.22 at 7:13 pm

Trudeau is looking at rising interest rates. Don’t worry, interest rates will balance themselves. Also, Trudeau, CDIC is still $100,000 since 2005 last change when Paul Martin, offshore company business man in the Caribbean raised it from $60,000 to $100,000. It has been more than 17 years of inflation, $100,000 is not $100,000 anymore. You could leave it $100,000 as houses cost $100,000 each. Keep printing money Liberals, NDP financial like it is water. What did you expect nothing to happen.

#87 Deandra on 06.14.22 at 7:20 pm

This is why we locked in for 10 years back in 2020 at 3.09%. We could of stayed in a Variable at 1.59% but we knew with Trudeau Liberals and the madness in government spending, Bank of Canada money creation would be going too far and they would over do it.

We will probably be at least 70% paid off our original mortgage balance which was $600,000 as we put a 15% down payment. We will be most likely left with a much smaller mortgage balance by 2030 of $180,000. Even if mortgage rates are 6%, 7%, 8% then we will have our house paid off by 2035 the latest by then.

#88 Faron on 06.14.22 at 7:21 pm

#60 Yukon Elvis on 06.14.22 at 5:49 pm

Try and make it look like an accident so your mother doesn’t blame herself. Don’t leave a note.

Wow Garth, you have some real winners commenting here. Wishing people to commit suicide etc. What a stud.

#89 Faron on 06.14.22 at 7:26 pm

#73 Penny Henny on 06.14.22 at 6:23 pm

Faron refers to this as a childish retort.

It’s a childish retort because he veered away from defending an indefensible stance. Equivalent to sticking hit fingers in his ears and and shouting “la la la la, I can’t hear you…”.

For you, Penny, that probably looks like a win. But, you are you and there’s nothing that can be done about that. At least Steve could choose to defend his position. You have none. As usual.

#90 Faron on 06.14.22 at 7:33 pm

I’ll just go for a record here. Sorry this is on topic Sail Away and Penny. I know you want me to fight you.

In case anyone wants to read about why Celsius is struggling and what else could happen, here’s a Twitter thread:

https://twitter.com/LucasNuzzi/status/1536695930648412160

Could be systemic to crypto.

#91 Faron on 06.14.22 at 7:37 pm

#83 crowdedelevatorfartz on 06.14.22 at 6:52 pm

Dang, can’t find the snapping fingers emoji. But, finger snaps all the same.

#92 Tom from Mississauga on 06.14.22 at 7:47 pm

Caisse de Depot’s toxic woke culture infecting institution, could a contrarian could handle the work environment? It led them away from oil (it’s only thing up) into crypto (way down), it’s loaded up on illiquid venture capital, when I get CSCO at 15x or GOOG at 19x.
Clearly now they’ve missed globalization ending and invested $5B on a port that all ships have to sail through the Strait of Hormuz. Iran fires one missile at a commercial vessel that port is closed. Bonnie chance with that!

#93 islander on 06.14.22 at 7:48 pm

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/canada/article-development-floodplains-150-canadian-cities/

Before you buy, check out your area’s floodplain map (new and improved).
Think about the insurance you’ll need (fire /flood/ earthquake etc).
Home prices may rise and fall, but expenses never go away and ‘once in a hundred years’ disasters are becoming more frequent.

#94 BREAKING NEWS! on 06.14.22 at 8:13 pm

Liberal government just announced $7 Billion to fight inflation.

Those homeowners who are renwing their mortgages this year will get free money to pay their mortgage at the equivalent of 2.5%. The government will give you 2.5% of the value of your mortgage every year for the next 5 years.

Unbelievable.

#95 Caffeine Monkey on 06.14.22 at 8:21 pm

#40 Faron on 06.14.22 at 4:27 pm
Blockchain technology is very, very useful.
——-
Not really, at least not whenever you hear a crypto bro pumping it.

The only reason to use a blockchain is when your system is truly decentralized. But every startup/old school company that wants to be a cool kid/crypto bro that uses a blockchain has, at its core, an entity acting as a central authority. In any case like this, it would be simpler and far less computationally expensive to have a plain jane database and issue ordinary cryptographic tokens. If you have a central authority who is in charge of issuing, managing, and validating tokens, a blockchain is pointless – except for pumping up your marketing copy and suckering in VC money.

The only legit use I’ve seen of blockchain is git, an open source piece of software that has been using blockchain way before the word became cool.

#96 The Regulator on 06.14.22 at 8:30 pm

# 63 – Rear Admiral Farts : This isn’t a James Bond movie, real people are dying. Unfortunately, mostly cannon fodder Ukrainians. Navalny will never rule anywhere, except in cell block “c”. Zelensky has a pike waiting for him, while Putin receives love from his people.
#68 – Michael in North york : Who’s really doing the squeaking here, micky? Aren’t your
Raytheon shares doing well?
# 79 – IDK aka I DON’T KNOW : You do live up to your name. But seriously, how many geopolitical experts live in their moms’ basement?

#97 Foggy on 06.14.22 at 8:37 pm

So, according to the chart, the key takeaway is that from 1985 to 2005, housing prices tripled.

Aslo, the correction just brought housing prices back to what they were 3 years earlier in 1987.

Lastly, if the same type of correction holds, those that should be worried (negative equity) are those who bought in the last 3 years, mid-2019 onward.

Oh well, I couldn’t afford 2019 house prices, still won’t be able to buy after the correct is done. I’ll keep renting. Thanks!

#98 Virtue signalling hypocrites on 06.14.22 at 8:39 pm

DELETED

#99 VladTor on 06.14.22 at 8:45 pm

#15 T Rex and the dinosaur clique

….Cash purchases only. If you can’t pay cash, don’t buy it.

************
This is where I disagree.

Here is my clarification.

Yes, you need to pay in cash for the house as much as possible. But! For the rest of the purchase, you need to take a mortgage if there is not enough money. The trick is that the amount of monthly payments should be no more than the amount of rent. Then it doesn’t matter – mortgage or rent – the costs are the same. Of course you need to count all the little things. In reality, the cost of maintaining a house plus mortgage payments should be comparable to a monthly rent.

Now it is difficult to find such a house, but until 2013 in a small town or, for example, in Windsor, it was easy.

#100 Ustabe on 06.14.22 at 8:50 pm

Folks who wonder why the Conservative Party of Canada can’t elect a competent leader or come up with a winning platform only need to browse this comment section to understand why.

Leave the moderation to Garth and use your scroll wheel, its that simple.

#101 Zed on 06.14.22 at 8:57 pm

I fear that the FED will raise their rate by a full one percent wednesday, at minimum .75%, because they have no vision nor great thinking.

When the covid pandemic hit, they lowered their rate to 0 and believed that they were so smart, saved the economy. They could not see that the world not end, that the governments spent so much on people and those same people took advantage of low rates to binge, same for the corporations. No vision that the inflation would climb big and fast, not temporarily.

This time will be different, the recession will hurt big and for a long time

Now the FED will mess things up gain, raise its rates so high and fast that they will kill the economy, for a very long time. No smooth landing.

#102 crowdedelevatorfartz on 06.14.22 at 9:01 pm

@North of 49
” what facts do you have that Russia’s victory will be pyrrhic. Clearly sanctions haven’t slowed Russia’s markets or the ascent of the ruble, ”
++++

We are only 120 days into Russia’s “Special Operation”

Or as one Russian comedian joked ,”Do we now call Tolstoy’s book, Special Operation and Peace?”

The sanctions are working.
It just takes time.
Something our “instant gratification” world seems to forget.
The flow of stopping oil to Europe will be complete by Dec.
Natural gas will be next.
Much more difficult to reverse gas lines and send it to other customers when the technology and parts were supplied by….western oil companies.

70% of Electronic parts, chips, software are imported from the west.
As are pharmaceuticals, machinery, medical equipment, etc etc etc.
That will start to bite, very very soon.

China will trade manufacture widgets for grain, fuel and fertilizer but their Covid lockdowns continue so dont expect relief if you’re a Russian entrepreneur selling laptops..

Saudi and the other OPEC nations havent started to ramp up production to cover Russia’s missing obligations in the West.
India is buying Russian oil at a huge discount.
Russia set aside $600 billion US as a rainy day fund….it’s burning through that cash in a spectacular fashion.
Lets see how Russia’s economy is doing one year after this mess started in Feb.
Feb 2023.
Cities reduced to rubble. Snipers maintaining the stalemate. A typical Russian smash and territory grab with tens of thousands dead on both sides..

The internal protests of bereaved Russian mothers in the late 1980’s economic downturn were one of many. Protests over the endless Russians killed in the futility of Afghanistan’s fruitless war caused the USSR to eventually topple….to be replaced by corrupt thugs……

Hardly the people to rally today’s population around.

The War in Ukraine is a butcher fest.
Civilians slaughtered and then the gruesome pictures and videos posted on the internet ….forever.

Way too many deaths on both sides and for a country like Russia, who’s population has been declining precipitously …..to wage a war and squander it’s youth on Putin’s pride…..
Madness.
Ukrainian’s are proud defenders against an invader …..whether Russia will admit that or not…..and Ukranian men have been trained in Russian military tactics for decades.

Poland, Finland, Latvia, Germany, Austria, etc etc etc alll dread the Russian juggernaut…..
No one like a bully .
Especially a bully that invades at the whim of a corrupt dictator like Putin.
Putin is the Czar of Corruption, nothing more.
And he is dragging his entire country down with him.

If Russia “wins”….whats next?
Europe and the West will forgive and forget?
If Germany is any indication…….
Not for another 75 years

#103 miketheengineer on 06.14.22 at 9:40 pm

Hey Garth:

Rumors going around that the banks in the entire city of Shanghi China have stopped allowing people to withdraw cash from their accounts….ie a BANK RUN.

What are you hearing from your informed sources, any validity from the bloggers?

Mike

#104 DON on 06.14.22 at 9:43 pm

#79 I don’t know on 06.14.22 at 6:38 pm
In the 80’s our population was 15 million less than it is now, and we have not built anywhere near as many houses to keep up.

The mad dash from November to February was to lock in low rates (and carry debt in quickly devaluing dollars). Demand was pulled forward and will take a while to catch up, but it will.

Re Russia: their “victory” is a shadow of what they planned in February. The costs were huge, and aside from some gains in eastern Ukraine, every other objective was a complete failure. They won’t be able to hold on to any land for long either. They don’t have the men and resources for a guerrilla war. They played their card early, as did many other countries, and now the strategy is out in the open. Japan (worlds third largest economy) recently decided to re militarize, and is getting close to South Korea and Vietnam (of all places). Finland joining nato was another massive geopolitical shift. Expect more of these types of events moving forward.

***********
You regurgitate what the news repeators say. They have gotten a lot wrong in the last 4 months.

Remember when you told us about PEAK Inflation or interest rates not rising or house prices continuing to rise…geezus.

You are forgetting a key word at the end of I don’t know

#105 GIC? on 06.14.22 at 9:53 pm

#51 tbone on 06.14.22 at 5:09 pm
# 29 GIC

Thanks.

Probably few more months and these GICs will make a bit more sense. Granted…vs. inflation, not so much.

#106 Ohmm on 06.14.22 at 10:05 pm

Good article but no mention on how much the Libs have spent on recent trips, anybody wish to know?? Here is a brief note on it all..

https://www.ctvnews.ca/politics/governor-general-entourage-amass-100k-in-flight-catering-bill-during-trip-to-middle-east-1.5947195

Politicians could care less what the rest have to go through, despicable!!!

#107 crowdedelevatorfartz on 06.14.22 at 10:06 pm

@#96 Russia’s Regurgitator
“….while Putin receives love from his people”

+++
Bwahahaha
Their “love” for their leader only lasts as long as his truncheon wielding goons last.

Let’s see where he is in 3 months. 6 months.

#108 Observer on 06.14.22 at 10:17 pm

#94 BREAKING NEWS! on 06.14.22 at 8:13 pm
Liberal government just announced $7 Billion to fight inflation.

Those homeowners who are renwing their mortgages this year will get free money to pay their mortgage at the equivalent of 2.5%. The government will give you 2.5% of the value of your mortgage every year for the next 5 years.

Unbelievable.

^^^^^^^^^^^^^^
Please tell me you are joking.

#109 Michael in-north-york on 06.14.22 at 10:19 pm

#96 Little troll

Looks like you are getting nervous? that’s good. I don’t care about your ratheon shares, watch them for yourself.

Keep squeaking from you mom’s basement, you are entertaining us.

#110 DON on 06.14.22 at 10:23 pm

#70 T Rex and the dinosaur clique on

Hard to find anything wrong with anything you said. Consistent with what I had learned in the past. Are you a prof of eastern europeon studies or …

#111 Ponzius Pilatus on 06.14.22 at 10:32 pm

94 BREAKING NEWS! on 06.14.22 at 8:13 pm
Liberal government just announced $7 Billion to fight inflation.

Those homeowners who are renwing their mortgages this year will get free money to pay their mortgage at the equivalent of 2.5%. The government will give you 2.5% of the value of your mortgage every year for the next 5 years.

Unbelievable.
—————————-
The same happened in the 80s in BC, when interest rates sky rocketed.

#112 Idiocy on 06.14.22 at 10:37 pm

Re: Russia / Ukraine

Reading the misinformed / uninformed comments here shows me the power of the media in Canada and the gullibility of Canadians to their propaganda.

Facts are:

The sanctions of the West have benefitted Russia’s economy and hurt the West via inflation and food and energy insecurity.
Furthermore they have reaffirmed the importance of Russia’s exports to the world economy.

The theft of Russian sovereign financial and oligarch’s assets has broken the trust other countries and the foreign wealthy placed in the West as to property rights.

Many countries in the world , who, in the agreggate, represent 80 % of the world’s population have declined to condemn Russia. That includes China, India, Brazil, Mexico, Indonesia, the whole of Africa, etc. The West has alienated 4 /5 s of the world – all of whom will carry on trade with Russia and be wary of the West.

In addition, by giving their military supplies to Ukraine, the West have exposed their technologies to capture, decimated the Ukraine army, depleted their armouries and made themselves vulnerable and exposed their NATO training as lacking.

And, of course, the West has confirmed that Russia and its largest nuclear arsenal in the world is indeed a power to be reckoned with.

So, if you look at the facts , Russia has won much more than just a war in the Ukraine.

But the Western media would have you believe otherwise.
And you believe them.
Gullible indeed.

So, if you look at the facts

#113 TurnerNation on 06.14.22 at 10:38 pm

Who would like to predict 8-10% interest rate when this is done — in a few years’ time?

Anyone else still watching 1puglife?
On the tube of u.
(‘Beg my pard’)

#114 Missed It (as usual) on 06.14.22 at 10:45 pm

#52 Faron on 06.14.22 at 5:10 pm

This kind of homophobic, white nationalism is a much more dire threat to stability and safety in Canada than one small business making a bad choice in a hiring call.

=========================================

The point was more how illustrative this pathetic virtue-signaller shop owner is that small-minded bigotry is hardly limited to “yt cis males”.

Worse, really, because the nauseating nonsense tries to masquerade as justice.

#115 The Regulator on 06.14.22 at 10:52 pm

DELETED

#116 Midnight’s on 06.14.22 at 10:54 pm

#15 T Rex and the dinosaur clique on 06.14.22 at 3:07 pm
Not my experience with real estate.

I have found it is a rock solid investment that returns better than anything else I have ever tried out, provided you treat it with the respect it deserves.

Exactly…
And it continues to pay a dividend (rent). And if one can’t buy, what do they do? Rent.
You can’t live in a computer no matter how realistic, it seems through one’s 3-D glasses.
I can remodel, extract, add on to, take away from, and it still pays. It’s all about the dividends, baby.

#117 Satori on 06.14.22 at 10:56 pm

#24 Faron on 06.13.22 at 3:40 pm
#39 Faron on 06.13.22 at 4:13 pm
#48 Faron on 06.13.22 at 4:45 pm
#59 Faron on 06.13.22 at 5:19 pm
#81 Faron on 06.13.22 at 6:46 pm
#98 Faron on 06.13.22 at 7:28 pm
#115 Faron on 06.13.22 at 9:07 pm
#171 Faron on 06.14.22 at 11:22 am
#173 Faron on 06.14.22 at 11:30 am
#187 Faron on 06.14.22 at 2:00 pm
#188 Faron on 06.14.22 at 2:09 pm
#192 Faron on 06.14.22 at 2:55 pm
#193 Faron on 06.14.22 at 2:58 pm
#194 Faron on 06.14.22 at 3:08 pm
#18 Faron on 06.14.22 at 3:14 pm
#25 Faron on 06.14.22 at 3:28 pm
#40 Faron on 06.14.22 at 4:27 pm
#41 Faron on 06.14.22 at 4:35 pm
————————————-
LMAO!!!!! And by the time this is posted….you can add a couple of dozen more to the list.

“Someone” might need to get a job, start their own blog, or get married…volunteer, start a side hustle for that extra mileage on the old car… LOL!!!

#118 The Regulator on 06.14.22 at 11:00 pm

# 96 – north York dork : C’mon, really?

You are becoming abusive. It will not be permitted. – Garth

#119 Go Bitcoin on 06.14.22 at 11:12 pm

Now that enough folks are totally trashing Bitcoin and there is blood in the streets,

time to start buying in again

Yah baby yah

That’s what all the great investors say right?

#120 Shawn on 06.14.22 at 11:19 pm

Another Newfoundland boondoggle in the making.

CBC news reports that the shuttered come-by-chance oil refinery will convert to make diesel from corn oil cooking oil and similar. Apparently the diesel snd aviation fuel to be exported.

This is complete nonsense done Newfoundland will not have the feedstock and the product is to be exported

The refinery to be burdened with a minimum job guarantee of 200 to insure it is inefficient

Probably a giant scam to get government money.

Really sad. I mean I’d love to see the refinery come back as a real business but this is not that.

#121 Reynolds753 on 06.14.22 at 11:32 pm

#110 Don
#70 Rex and dinosaur clique on

In fact, there are many points that are incorrect. Very few people in the Ukraine want to be beholden to Russia including those in the eastern Ukraine. This will not end well for Russia and nor should it.

#122 Michael in-north-york on 06.14.22 at 11:42 pm

#112 Idiocy

Where are you getting all your alternative facts? Nothing in your post is true.

#123 Michael in-north-york on 06.14.22 at 11:44 pm

# 118 little troll dork: really, really.

#124 Shawn on 06.14.22 at 11:56 pm

The old come by chance refinery to use soybeans as well.

How well do soybeans grow in Newfoundland? Known as the rock and with a very short summer.

What will they do import the feedstock and export the product and they are far from the source and the destination. Sad they have to try this.

A few decades ago it was going to be cucumbers grown in giant hot houses. Yeah that made sense,

Another time they could have had a big nickel mine but I believe it fell through when they insisted it be refined there which was simple uneconomic.

#125 Tom from Mississauga on 06.15.22 at 12:33 am

Globalization peaked 2019, it was 1st noticed with labour and trade opposition when Trump won, then health opposition with Covid, security opposition with Putin. Now we are having regional naval opposition, the Black Sea is cut off, China nationalized Taiwan Strait and now this…

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/6/14/iran-says-tanker-seized-by-greece-has-been-released

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/05/27/world/middleeast/iran-seizes-greek-tankers.html

#126 tc-contra on 06.15.22 at 1:05 am

#33 JSS on 06.14.22 at 3:59 pm

A wonderful day to buy Canadian banks and the S&P500.
Look ahead in 1-2 years.
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

Not sure about Canadian banks, but SP500 will be MUCH lower in 2 years, guaranteed!

#127 Faron on 06.15.22 at 1:21 am

#114 Missed It (as usual) on 06.14.22 at 10:45 pm

Settle down. Dude made a mistake. If he broke the law, then he will pay the price. Real impact is near zero.

Yet this is what catches the eye of this crowd. Sail Away gleefully spatters this stuff here (break out the black light) and y’all gobble it up and get your panties in a twist.

Meanwhile real, violent crap is being done in the name of hating on queer and or non-white and or indigenous folk and… crickets. In fact, it gets shot down quickly or leads to Yukon Elvis suggesting I off myself. The asymmetry is stunning and, frankly, un Canadian.

#128 Mega pay raises on 06.15.22 at 2:40 am

My husband is the president of a small company with many long term employees.

The interest rate increases along with the high price of gas and food has made it impossible not to give employees at least an 8 percent annual raise in addition to their annual bonuses. There might even be two bonuses this year.

What do you think those pay raises and bonuses are going to do to continuing inflation?

The situation is getting completely out of control.

Everybody seems to want to come to Canada for all sorts of different reasons, depending on the country, even though our cost of living is out of this world.

Their reasons for leaving their home countries are existential. Some are coming with massive amounts of cash, others with barely the clothes on their backs.

Real estate is the same as everything else. You might be able to create a big pullback with rapidly increasing interest rates but those rate increases will cause other parts of the system to experience very negative consequences and then the rates will start to reverse.

People hoping for a 50 percent pullback so they can get on the train they missed are likely going to miss it again.

A successful businessman I know is salivating at the prospect of picking up another house on a pullback when people who’ve never paid high interest rates before and have low equity crash and burn. He’s got cash.

There are more people out there with lots of cash from other countries than most of us can fathom who love the idea of moving here and protecting the money from their home governments.

Your misery is going to be someone else’s happiness if you can’t ride out this difficult period.

This country is turning into a type of caste system. The home owners versus the people who may never own.

If you think renting is a great idea, get used to it because you might end up doing it forever. It may be cheaper than owning, but that money is gone forever and rents are sky high too.

It’s only cheaper to rent if you don’t already have lots of equity which many Canadians do.

#129 Dmitry on 06.15.22 at 4:47 am

“speaking of Russia, it may win the war in Ukraine”

This is mind boggling that you would look at this as something that can be “won”. There are real atrocities going on, how can that lead to a “win”? Do terrorists “win” when they successfully inflict terror?

And this whole mess is very far from being over. Ukraine will be fighting for a long time. And there are good reasons why folks in Poland and Baltics are restless. And Taiwan is likely to be dragged into this mess as well. And South Korea might get disturbed too. Japan is still in state of war and have territorial dispute so that’s another likely participant. And other parts of the world will leverage the situation for their own wars, like Turkey is doing now. Hopefully it does not get to all of that but it is now much more likely than ever in the last 70 years.

You are way off Garth in your expectation of a quick resolution. This is war and it is unpredictable, but quick it aint.

P.S. it is not simply Ukraine that Russia is at war with. Before they started this round they gave an ultimatum and it was not given to Ukraine. It was given to NATO. And not just about Ukraine. The only part of Eastern Europe that ultimatum did not cover was DDR. So Russia won’t consider anything a “win” until much more than Ukraine is destroyed. In fact with each occupied Ukrainian city they just add to their mobilization potential to continue waging war. So a quick “win” in Ukraine would simply result in much quicker advance further West.

#130 Dmitry on 06.15.22 at 5:29 am

#70 T Rex:

“The Ukraine war is concentrated in separatist regions. Areas that do not want to be part of Ukraine and which were trying to align themselves with Russia.”

That is Russian propaganda. There are a lot more separatists in Texas, Alaska and Alberta and of course Quebec than in Ukraine. Ukrainians voted to quit USSR, go look up the numbers from that vote. That us the “separatism” that dominates in Ukraine and you can see it on display now.

“you had an increasingly right wing movement in Ukraine, determined to preserve the entire country against the separatists.”

Again russian propaganda. There is much more “right wing movement” in Russia than in Ukraine. Complete nonsense.

Other russian propaganda lies include nazis led by democratically elected president of Jewish descent and oppression of Russian language by president whose first language is Russian.

So Garth is right to ask “who are you”- ignorant fool or somebody on russian payroll?

#131 Tony on 06.15.22 at 5:53 am

Could the rates come down in a few years again? Which would mean this is just another bump in the real estate road?

#132 Fortune500 on 06.15.22 at 7:20 am

Was the 80s crash in real estate caused by a sudden shock in interest rates globally? Did they also impact equities in the same way globally?

What were the population to housing ratios then and what were the immigration numbers like at the time? I keep hearing that this is what we are headed for, but little around those caveats.

We bought a home recently and before that our money was in the markets (like most Millennials trying to earn a decent return in a low interest environment). So those who waited are likely looking at significantly smaller down payments. Will stocks recover faster than the housing market? Maybe, maybe not.

Things are less black and white than this blog likes to portray

#133 Gravy Train on 06.15.22 at 7:52 am

Bill Gates says crypto and NFTs are “100% based on greater fool theory,” but then we in steerage already knew that! :P

#134 Zxcvbnm on 06.15.22 at 8:01 am

Unhinged..
Faron = Karen. Pack it in, son. You’re frothing

#135 the Jaguar on 06.15.22 at 8:23 am

NP Snippet (Eric Nuttal) – (Maybe ditch the Ford F150 Crewcab for an electric bicycle)….

“Last week, the Royal Bank of Canada hosted a spectacular energy conference in New York with the highlight being a keynote speech by Mohammed Barkindo, the secretary general of OPEC.

In his keynote speech, Barkindo warned that “OPEC is running out of capacity,” and that “with the exception of two or three members, all are maxed out.” Further, “the world needs to come to terms with this brutal fact” and that it is a “global challenge.”

With oil inventories already at multi-year lows, demand back to PRE-COVID-19 levels and structural challenges to supply growth, we believe oil prices will have to act as a demand-destroying mechanism, rising to a high enough level that kills discretionary demand, thereby balancing the market, while also staying there long enough to give the supermajors the confidence needed to start adequately spending again.

Given industry cycle times of four to six years, we believe that oil companies are set up to return egregiously high returns to investors for much longer than people realize, leading to a rerating from valuation levels that still imply the end of oil is nigh.”

#136 the Jaguar on 06.15.22 at 8:26 am

Oh…I meant to add that “Never bet against oil”. ‘Energy is GDP’, as Art Berman would say.

#137 Donnie on 06.15.22 at 8:30 am

Tony, yes rates would come down again some time in the future but it looks like with all the inflation and central banks money printing, buying up bonds, whole disaster to over do it by passing out money like it is candy will mean likely mortgage rates in the 7.5% to 8.5% range in coming months, year which is basically 2000 to 2001 year levels. Even if rates come down to 4% to 4.5% then those that where depending on 1.25% to 2% mortgage rates will not be able to afford an extra minimum $750 to $1,500 or more a month in mortgage payments. Don’t forget in 2, 3 years life will be even more expensive with higher carbon taxes, energy taxes, fees and the extra crap piling on from higher property taxes, utilities, gas prices, auto, home insurance, food etc.

#138 crowdedelevatorfartz on 06.15.22 at 8:36 am

@#129 Dmitry

Don’t let the Disinformation Dept of Kompromat Russian Regurgitator get you down.
He’s being paid to spread half truths.
Bitcoin I believe.
Or US dollars in a Maltese bank account.
Either way.
When Putin is gone, all the war mongering cockroaches will be scurrying from the light as the war crimes trials crank up.
Speaking of war crimes.
Have the Russians executed the 3 soldiers ( two British, one Moroccan) that they have sentenced to death for war crimes?
Or is this more Putin posturing?

#139 Senator Bluto on 06.15.22 at 8:52 am

https://www.zerohedge.com/commodities/biden-sends-threat-letters-big-oil-help-alleve-putin-price-hike-or-face-our-tools

++++++++++++++++++++++++++

If Biden was as tough on his enemies as he is on his friends and allies the war the Ukraine War would never have started.

Weak and spittley threats uttered by an impotent man. I’m sure everyone in the oilpatch are just quaking in their Carharts.

#140 TurnerNation on 06.15.22 at 9:00 am

Learn how the Long Game is played lads.
Gee who knew that ordering small business, businesses closed, and firing otherwise heathy people would cause supply chain issues? Gee I wonder. The Long Game.
All PLANNED-emically ahead of time.

What’s next? Who may afford payments on a 1.5m home at 1.5% interest rates. Not many. A few.

Who, then may afford a 1m home at 5% interest rates? Not many.

Will the REITs and global Venture/Vulture funds swoop in and buy of Kanada for pennies on the dollar?

#141 Bezengy on 06.15.22 at 9:04 am

#133 Gravy Train on 06.15.22 at 7:52 am
Bill Gates says crypto and NFTs are “100% based on greater fool theory,” but then we in steerage already knew that! :P

—————-

This blog is about one to two years ahead of the herd, no doubt about it in my mind.

#142 DON on 06.15.22 at 9:35 am

#132 Fortune500 on 06.15.22 at 7:20 am
Was the 80s crash in real estate caused by a sudden shock in interest rates globally? Did they also impact equities in the same way globally?

What were the population to housing ratios then and what were the immigration numbers like at the time? I keep hearing that this is what we are headed for, but little around those caveats.

We bought a home recently and before that our money was in the markets (like most Millennials trying to earn a decent return in a low interest environment). So those who waited are likely looking at significantly smaller down payments. Will stocks recover faster than the housing market? Maybe, maybe not.

Things are less black and white than this blog likes to portray

**********
You could always do your own research to answer the questions you have. You may or may not like the answers. Remember all those speculators out there…what about them?

If you are looking for the answer, ‘don’t worry everything will be fine’…not sure who can help with that. Good luck!

#143 Quintilian on 06.15.22 at 9:40 am

Is money-laundering inflating prices where you live? B.C.’s report on the issue, coming out today, might be revealing

“B.C.ers and even Canadians are hoping to see that somebody is held accountable out of all of this, it’s not just missteps,” Cohen said. “Most people want to see a path forward to fix this, but people do want accountability.”

https://www.thestar.com/news/canada/2022/06/15/is-money-laundering-inflating-prices-where-you-live-bcs-report-on-the-issue-coming-out-today-might-be-revealing.html

Only naïve people would be diverted by this political circus. Impact on overall BC prices = zero. – Garth

#144 Dharma Bum on 06.15.22 at 9:42 am

Wait for it……

It’s coming….

RECESSION!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HDGKKNM7a7s

Have you heard the news?
(What news?)
Can’t afford no shoes
(Ow! Get a deal on tape!)
Have you heard the news?
(What news? Can’t afford a paper!)
Can’t afford no shoes

Went to buy some cheap detergent
Some emergent nation
Got my load
Got my load
Got my toad
That I stowed

[Chorus]
Well, well
Hey lordy mama
Can’t afford no shoes
Maybe there’s a bundle of rags that I could use
Hey anybody
Can you spare a dime?
If you’re really hurtin’, a nickel would be fine
Hey everybody
Nothin’ we can buy
Jump! Hare Rama, ain’t no good to try
Recession…
Depression

Credit: The Late Great Frank Zappa

#145 DON on 06.15.22 at 9:45 am

#139 Senator Bluto on 06.15.22 at 8:52 am
https://www.zerohedge.com/commodities/biden-sends-threat-letters-big-oil-help-alleve-putin-price-hike-or-face-our-tools

++++++++++++++++++++++++++

If Biden was as tough on his enemies as he is on his friends and allies the war the Ukraine War would never have started.

Weak and spittley threats uttered by an impotent man. I’m sure everyone in the oilpatch are just quaking in their Carharts.

************
After Boris taxed big oil, Biden is warming up to the idea…he needs an idea. The Boris move sent Alberta Energy Minister Ms. Savage on the defensive against the possibility of it happening in Canada. Who’s working for the people these days?

#146 Linda on 06.15.22 at 9:58 am

#82 ‘Shawn’ – are you talking about the ‘travel bubble’ NS & the other Maritime provinces had during Covid? A neighbor of ours was impacted by that; a family member was about to undergo risky surgery & our neighbor could not be there for support due to said bubble. Lots of stress all around:( Have to say, had it not been for said bubble we would have visited NS for vacation. Have been previously including Cape Breton; would love to visit again. Did some tire kicking but now Covid restrictions have been lifted places have been booked well into 2023, plus there is the little problem with being able to rent a vehicle to get around in.

The actual level of debt seems difficult to ascertain, not just for Alberta but anywhere. Maybe that is just as well, I expect knowing the true total we owe would be enough to trigger very negative feelings! Nice to know high O&G are helping to reduce Alberta’s debt. With all the bad news one hears, refreshing to hear something positive instead.

#147 Sail Away on 06.15.22 at 10:03 am

@ Shawn and Penny:

Re: Inflation

Yes, you are both correct. Thx.

#148 Quintilian on 06.15.22 at 10:15 am

Only naïve people would be diverted by this political circus. Impact on overall BC prices = zero. – Garth

The report is headed by former B.C. Supreme Court Justice Austin Cullen , and contains testimony from 199 witnesses during a sitting of 133 days.

But Garth dismisses as “political circus”

People can draw their own conclusions later today.

Do not be diverted (as the BC Dippers hope you will be). – Garth

#149 Senator Bluto on 06.15.22 at 10:30 am

#145 DON on 06.15.22 at 9:45 am

After Boris taxed big oil, Biden is warming up to the idea…he needs an idea. The Boris move sent Alberta Energy Minister Ms. Savage on the defensive against the possibility of it happening in Canada. Who’s working for the people these days?
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++

Biden (with the support of Trudeau) kills pipelines and energy projects while also enacting environmental regs that make it expensive/difficult to run refineries and next to impossible to build an new one.

Then, after years of neglect and non-replenishment of reserves the price of oil skyrockets and Biden demands that the oil patch increase production of the commodities that he’s been actively working to destroy.

This all only makes sense in the dementia addled brains of a woke progressives. Note how they scream for sustainability while gorging themselves on the world’s supply of seed grain. After a while, the normal person doesn’t see this as irony, or even hypocrisy. It is seen as pure malevolence.

As to your question, who works for the people these days?

For now, we still do, and the faster we throw these self-congratulating greedy SOB’s out the better off we’ll all be. If you want to call it populism, I’m OK with that as the elites have failed everyone miserably and lost their credibility and mandate. They are no better than Caligula or Marie Antionette.

#150 Faron on 06.15.22 at 10:33 am

#117 Satori on 06.14.22 at 10:56 pm

All were material.

Keep at it Santorum, one day you may actually have an idea or a thought of your own. Even Penny Henny does that now and then. We are rooting for you. Or I am at least. Until then, enjoy taking sides with those who wish suicide on others or titter about the made-up concept of wokeness. Real classy.

#151 Love_The_Cottage on 06.15.22 at 10:48 am

#4 McSteve on 06.14.22 at 2:48 pm
So – I have a 2.45% mortgage for the next 4 years and change. Does it actually make sense to buy GICs this summer and fall for 5+% and apply against the mortgage upon maturity?

Are GICs actually a viable investment again?
___________
I suppose if you have room in your TFSA maybe, but if you’re paying tax then definitely not.

Personally I’d be paying down the mortgage where you can without penalty. My mortgage had a 10% annual payment with no penalty and even if I only have 1% I would do it. There may be other ways to chase a few dollars, it let me sleep better seeing the balance go down.

#152 crowdedelevatorfartz on 06.15.22 at 10:50 am

hmmm

Looks like the Western Sanctions ARE working.

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/european-official-concerned-about-russia-flying-western-made-airplanes-2022-06-14/

Seems the spare parts from Boeing and Airbus for Russian domestic flyers are drying up.
They are starting to cannibalize some of their fleet for spare parts to keep the other ones in the air.

tik tok tik tok

#153 millmech on 06.15.22 at 10:59 am

I wonder if the rate hike in the US will be a 1% increase instead of .75%, just to show they are serious.

#154 crowdedelevatorfartz on 06.15.22 at 11:07 am

Well.
Its good to see our first First Nations Female Governor General has learned how to take advantage of her “entitlements”.

The GG and 29 of her closest “necessary” staffers gobbled up $100,000 worth of “Catered food” on the free flight to a “meet and greet” in the Middle East.

https://www.ctvnews.ca/politics/governor-general-entourage-amass-100k-in-flight-catering-bill-during-trip-to-middle-east-1.5947195

For comparison.

Trudeau and Freeland and 59 staffers only ate $59,000 worth of food on a flight to Eastern Europe.

What the hell was on the GG in flight menu?
Roast Polar Bear paws and fricassee MukTuk?
All washed down with a crate of 1959 Dom Perignon….

Seems to have taken less than a year for her to discover where the “golden trough” is.

#155 NorthOf49 on 06.15.22 at 11:12 am

#138 crowdedelevatorfartz on 06.15.22 at 8:36 am

…Have the Russians executed the 3 soldiers ( two British, one Moroccan) that they have sentenced to death for war crimes?
Or is this more Putin posturing?
———————————

As Garth would say, try to keep up. London has instructed Kiev to deal with the issue of the release of the UK mercenaries sentenced to death. The scuttlebutt is the Russians asked the UK if they wanted to appeal the death sentences in exchange for prison sentences. By the UK asking for Kiev to get involved, most likely some type of POW exchange would occur to get them freed. UK has to maintain it’s distance since they’d already stated that UK mercenaries should not expect govt support and could face consequences upon their return home.

#156 John K on 06.15.22 at 11:19 am

Hello, would you please consider making this website mobile friendly?

#157 Ponzius Pilatus on 06.15.22 at 11:21 am

Biden says:
“Gas companies should produce more gas, less profits”

What you thought was thunder was the hysteric laughter coming from the oil and gas companies executive suites and board rooms.

#158 crowdedelevatorfartz on 06.15.22 at 11:32 am

Speaking of Governor Generals.

Did we ever finish building that cat door for GG Julie Payette’s pet?

https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/rideau-hall-expenses-privacy-projects-1.5676088

Or is it still in the quarter million dollar planning stages?

#159 Ponzius Pilatus on 06.15.22 at 11:48 am

#131 Dmtri
Your misspelled fake Russian first name dos not make you an expert on matters Russian.
The posters that you are belittling, have a good grasp what’s going on in Ukraine right now.
In short, it’s not looking very good for Selensky (where is he, anyway) right now.
And boycotts and sanctions seem to be not working.
Russia is reaping the benefits of higher energy prices to the tune of about 1 billion Euro a day.
China, Germany, ITALIA (yes Dolce) and India are the main customers.
Unfortunately the West’s leadership is weak (Scholz is no Merkel), and is not as united as it was at the beginning of the war.
And Biden is off to kneel before the Saudis, whom he called Pariahs just a few weeks ago.
Oil and gas is king, and until the World breaks its addiction to it, the West will continue to be at the mercy of the dictators.

#160 Froggy on 06.15.22 at 11:54 am

Hi Garth and to all the Calgary pumpers my take is boom and bust like always let’s look in 12 month’s it will be worst than before the pandemic rates at 6+ and oil to 1.50 a liter because the world will be in a huge recession less consumption

#161 The Regulator on 06.15.22 at 12:08 pm

# 118 – The Regulator : You are becoming abusive. It will not be permitted – Garth
Please refer to #122 – Michael from north york.
# 123 – Michael from north york. # 138 – crowdedelevatorfartz. Who is becoming unhinged here? I hit a nerve with the truth, so be it. They need to grow up.

#162 Philco on 06.15.22 at 12:08 pm

Crypto is a joke and an evromental disater.
Why didn’t the fools in charge stop it!!!?
Nope to busy carbon taxing the crap out of you.

https://news.climate.columbia.edu/2022/05/04/cryptocurrency-energy/#:~:text=But%20crypto%20has%20a%20dirty,of%20Argentina%2C%20population%2045%20million.

#154 crowdedelevatorfartz
Your dealing with crooked elites that need to be squashed.
Entiled criminals in my view. Its going to be sad times for those that dont know how things work.
I could write a book but gotta go cut lumber.

#163 NorthOf49 on 06.15.22 at 12:17 pm

#159 Ponzius Pilatus on 06.15.22 at 11:48 am

Let’s not forget natural resources the world decided it also still needs from Russia…

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-06-13/us-quietly-urges-russia-fertilizer-deals-to-unlock-grain-trade

Sanctions?? says the US. No no, you misunderstood, we meant sanctions on that other stuff over there…..that the US doesn’t need. LOL

#164 Ponzius Pilatus on 06.15.22 at 12:28 pm

#155 NorthOf49 on 06.15.22 at 11:12 am
#138 crowdedelevatorfartz on 06.15.22 at 8:36 am

…Have the Russians executed the 3 soldiers ( two British, one Moroccan) that they have sentenced to death for war crimes?
Or is this more Putin posturing?
———————————

As Garth would say, try to keep up. London has instructed Kiev to deal with the issue of the release of the UK mercenaries sentenced to death. The scuttlebutt is the Russians asked the UK if they wanted to appeal the death sentences in exchange for prison sentences. By the UK asking for Kiev to get involved, most likely some type of POW exchange would occur to get them freed. UK has to maintain it’s distance since they’d already stated that UK mercenaries should not expect govt support and could face consequences upon their return home.
———————
That shows you how clueless CEF is.
Lots of wanna be Rambos are joining the war in Ukraine.
That’s probably why the Ukrainian army looks like a ragtag bunch of mercenaries.
Selensky is pressuring NATO to send him more sophisticated weapons, but Germany is reluctant to send them any because they require extensive training.
And, of course there is the possibility that the could fall into the hands of the Russians.

#165 Faron on 06.15.22 at 12:31 pm

The Trump campaign made a fraud fund to fight their own fraud.

Another Jan 6th hearing nugget? Rep. Loudermilk claimed yesterday that he didn’t lead a tour through the capitol building. Today, security camera footage shows him leading a tour with tour participants photographing stair wells, hallways, doors and other logistical planning entities. Loudermilk is a vocal “Stop the Steal” goon.

Sorry, I know this isn’t nearly as important as whining about poor hiring practice in a small coffee roastery 👬 👭 💗 🌈 I’ll try to focus more on hate.

#166 Mehling on 06.15.22 at 12:35 pm

https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/wealthsimple-to-layoff-13-of-staff-amid-market-volatility-1.1779278

Wealthsimple to layoff 13% of staff amid ‘market volatility’ – Bloomberg

#167 The Regulator on 06.15.22 at 12:42 pm

DELETED

#168 Faron on 06.15.22 at 1:07 pm

#195 Steven on 06.14.22 at 3:13 pm

I’m still really early.

So, now that bitcoin is down another 6+% since our little chatty chat and as much as 9% in the interem, does that mean you are really earliester or more less late? Rilly really early? OMG soooo early?

I will note that there is all kinds of technical support at about $20k USD and it bounced there overnight. So maybe I’ll be most latester soon. Time is confusing with these crypto coins.

#169 T Rex and the dinosaur clique on 06.15.22 at 1:15 pm

DELETED

#170 Michael in-north-york on 06.15.22 at 1:31 pm

#129 and #130 Dmitry

Well said. Every “political expert” who posts here, should read and consider what you wrote.

#171 Shawn on 06.15.22 at 1:46 pm

Investors have no place in the Fed rooms of the nation.

The Fed should never ever prioritize Wall Street over Main Street. Hopefully today they will prioritize Main Street. That’s against my self interest but is the right thing.

Wall Street and the stock market should not even cross their minds.

#172 DON on 06.15.22 at 1:46 pm

#170 Michael in-north-york on 06.15.22 at 1:31 pm
#129 and #130 Dmitry

Well said. Every “political expert” who posts here, should read and consider what you wrote

************

Let’s go back and look at your past posts and see who is wrong.

#173 Diamond Dog on 06.15.22 at 1:55 pm

#149 Senator Bluto on 06.15.22 at 10:30 am

Trump was in power from early 2016 through early 2020.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Party_divisions_of_United_States_Congresses#/media/File:Combined–Control_of_the_U.S._House_of_Representatives_-_Control_of_the_U.S._Senate.png

Trump had 4 full years of a Republican controlled senate which was more than enough to get Keystone passed any time he wanted without the need for a Republican controlled lower house which he also had in his first 2 years. The permits to construct Keystone XL were there from 2017 on 4 years and not acted upon. Biden revoking permits last year wasn’t going to change anything (other than improve the permitting process). You should really be asking why that is.

The answer is not political but logistical, having more to do with ramped up U.S. oil production in North Dakota (1 million barrels over the last 13 years) coupled with increased production in Wyoming, Oklahoma, especially Texas, straining domestic pipeline/refining capacity:

https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/crude-oil-production

New U.S. oil production has pushed pipeline and refining capacity to it’s limits regardless of potential access to cheap extra heavy Canadian crude (which Americans had anyway by rail). Keystone wasn’t built during the Obama & Trump era because the U.S. struggled to handle it’s own new production (all through the 2010’s). Couple this with further constraints on refining to process extra heavies from Canada and you will see the reason why Keystone wasn’t built.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Keystone_Pipeline

Perhaps now you’ll see why Trans mountain became so important to Canadian producers since the industry and the Trudeau government “has known what I’m telling you now at least 6 years ago”? If you’re going to pick a political hill to die on, this isn’t it.

#174 DON on 06.15.22 at 1:56 pm

https://financialpost.com/real-estate/may-home-sales-down-22-since-last-year-9-from-april-crea

#175 Kurt on 06.15.22 at 2:14 pm

re: “DELETED”

Guys, WISE UP! Garth is the fairest, most consistent and generally permissive moderator I have ever experienced. If you can’t color inside his lines, please go somewhere else.

#176 The Regulator on 06.15.22 at 2:22 pm

# 170 – michael in north york : Yes, he makes some valid points, mixed with untruths. Pretty standard propaganda techniques really. It’s called a limited hangout. Then using a Russian name to gain credibility amongst the gullible and uninformed. Sorry.

#177 The Regulator on 06.15.22 at 2:32 pm

# 175 – Kurt : You are correct about Garth’s moderating skills. Many comments here would not be tolerated on any mainstream forum. But if you’re either too afraid to say something, and risk a tongue lashing from Garth, or a delete, or don’t want to offend anyone, what’s the point?

#178 John on 06.15.22 at 3:21 pm

Your price charts showing price changes on the way up and then on the way down from Feb/22 would have been great if they were both showing detached houses or both showing All Dwellings, would have been great to see how much those detached houses fell in that 2nd charr

#179 A.C on 06.15.22 at 3:22 pm

Wait. You want that one guy to take the 4% 5 year fixed??? I was confused if that was a yes or no.

Lord help a duck, my sister went variable and she coulda locked in a low 3 year rate. She listens to her idiot friends too much. She also listens to much to her rich sister. Who can afford any rate cause she married wealthy.

And I just saw the house she had been eyeing before for 30,000 less. I wish she talked to me before buying. A few months wait and she coulda got a nicer place way cheaper. At least she has a stable job.

#180 A.C on 06.15.22 at 3:23 pm

Rates are going up i TOLD HER. Prices are gonna come down.

But no no no she said, family homes are going stay stable. Even after we say a relatives Townhouse listed 40k less then 15 years ago.

#181 Tony on 06.16.22 at 2:03 am

Re: #131 Tony on 06.15.22 at 5:53 am

Without a major shift in monetary policy in America it’s possible. Quantitative easing seemed to only help the top 10 percent of wage earners and increased the number of homeless. The wealth effect never seemed to trickle down to main street the entire time.

#182 Tony on 06.16.22 at 2:30 am

Re: #84 T-Rev on 06.14.22 at 7:00 pm

Even after interest rates peak 9 to 5er’s take quite a long time to catch on. This time it could take even longer. Something that is as plain as day for someone with at least some background in economics goes over the heads of the uninformed.