The reset

Not long ago the guy who’ll be the next Con leader in Canada trashed the central bank and fomented liberty, saying Canadians should be free to embrace Bitcoin and decentralized finance (DeFi). Pierre Poilievre, by the way, personally owns a crypto ETF called Purpose Bitcoin (now down 65%).

He has called for Tiff Macklem’s head on a stick and said our CB should be banned from establishing any digital currency. “We need sound money again—and also the freedom for buyers and sellers to choose #bitcoin and other technology,” he Tweeted April 1.

Pepe also used Bitcoin to pay for food at a restaurant in SW Ontario in March and made a donation in crypto to the SPCA in BC, with a dog at his side wearing a Bitcoin bandana. “A Poilievre government would welcome this new, decentralized, bottom-up economy and allow people to take control of their money from bankers and politicians,” his campaign said in a media blurt.

This is not to trash the guy, but to warn. There is no silver bullet.

Look at this news…

Canada’s second-largest pension fund took Mr. Poilievre’s lead and invested $400 million of retirees’ money in a DeFi crypto-trading platform called The Celsius Network. Since then the company’s token has lost 92% of its value and Sunday night the outfit all but went dark. Its 1.7 million crypto customers are SOL. Their stash of crypto may be gone, gone. So is the pension money. ” Due to extreme market conditions, today we are announcing that Celsius is pausing all withdrawals, Swap, and transfers between accounts.”

Like other DeFi unregulated “freedom”-loving ponzis, this platform took crypto deposits, lent them out to others and paid an 18% interest rate. Of course, there was nothing standing behind the pledge. The emperor had no clothes. It’s hardly wise to chase an 18% return when your asset goes poof.

Days ago we told you about the collapse of a leading ‘stablecoin,’ Luna = disaster. Meanwhile Bitcoin lost 15% of its value on the weekend, and another 16% on Monday. It was $84,000 in November, then $53,000 in March as Pepe launched his crusade. Now it’s shed 73% in six months and as interest rates rise, the descent continues.

The same is happening with NFTs, of course. And Bored Ape-branded anything. Go to Reddit and read the suicidal posts made by Mills and Zs who were just wiped out. The last thing these folks need is someone telling them it’s different this time.

There’s more, of course.

The Fed jacks its benchmark rate in a couple of days, and bond yields have gone parabolic. Five-year mortgages are still on their way to 5%, and rate hikes by CBs have only really started. The stress test rate is wavering at 7%, and newbie buyers are stacking like cord wood. No wonder there’s blood trickling down the gutters of Bunnypatch.

And look at this survey by Manulife. Yikes. Almost a fifth of homeowners report a “significant negative impact” from interest rates – already. If the hikes continue, they say, selling is the only option. Two in three think real estate in unaffordable despite the big price drop now occurring in many markets. Half say debt is affecting their mental health as they struggle financially.

It’s a big deal, since the bank prime has gone from 2.4% to just 3.7%. It appears headed for 5.2%, taking credit card debt, HELOC payments, lines of credit and, yes, home loans, along with it. Particularly shocked may be those who opted for variable rate mortgages a few months ago, because they were the cheapest way of affording inflated real estate debt. Oops.

Yes, folks who signed up at 1.5% may soon face 4.5%. Monthly payments normally do not change, but interest charges swell fast and the amount to be financed upon renewal is a shock. Meanwhile folks with HELOCs are seeing immediate consequences as interest charges bolt with every chartered bank prime hike. Recall that using a home equity LOC and mortgage money to achieve 100% financing on an investment property (rental) was a popular move over the last two years. Now those folks are not only in negative cash flow (tenants don’t cover costs) but the asset is in capital decline. Gulp.

Okay, what of stocks, ETFs and financial portfolios?

US equity markets are slipping into bear territory (down 20% from all-time highs of earlier this year). But compared to crypto or a suburban box in Vaughan or Burnaby, not so bad. We haven’t bottomed yet, say the geniuses at Goldman Sachs or Morgan Stanley, and it’s clear central banks need to administer their enema first. A recession is possible if the landing is rocky, but that’s not something worth going to cash for. “Even if a recession does occur then it may be a short recession given the strength of the U.S. consumer as debt levels and debt service payments as a percent of disposable income are relatively low,” says TD Asset manager Steve Malinas (he’s a smart guy).

Gold plopped today. So much for the inflation hedge. Oil sold off, too. No place to hide. However, remember financial assets bottom long before hard stuff (including houses) does. Months vs years.

So is this the great reset? Or a needed return to earth?

Dunno. But beware dogs bearing Bitcoin. They bite.

About the picture: On April 9th this pooch was a photo op in BC for Conservative leadership candidate Pierre Poilievre as he promoted Bitcoin to Canadians. “You CAN teach an old dog new tricks,”
he said. “Today I donated $100 of Bitcoin to BC SPCA to help rescued animals. As PM I’d adopt a bill to remove taxes on Bitcoin & cypto donations to charities. Join, vote for me, give people back control of their money.” Bitcoin is currently 56% lower in value.

199 comments ↓

#1 OK, Doomer on 06.13.22 at 2:57 pm

“and it’s clear central banks need to administer their enema first.” – Garth

* * * * * * – that’s what everyone looks like bent over to get theirs.

Yeah, I know my wife says I have the same sense of humor as a Grade 8 boy, but sometimes resistance is futile.

#2 Prince Polo on 06.13.22 at 2:57 pm

The gnashing of teeth isn’t loud enough yet…

#3 Chris L. on 06.13.22 at 3:00 pm

Oil didn’t sell off today. You wrote too early. It recovered by noon – and stocks quickly reversed over 50% of it’s early morning losses. Unlike the rest of the stuff, oil runs planet earth and regardless of what happens with debt issues, will continue to run planet earth. Long oil. If the rest of the world’s assets could quickly adjust, we can resume going upward. No bottom in sight so far…as stated, not until we get to the top of rate rises, and stop of inflation. I hold only oil – and Air Canada.

#4 Brett in Calgary on 06.13.22 at 3:01 pm

What a dumpster fire crypto is. Glad I strayed far from that tulip bulb.

#5 It may be Pensions x Crypto on 06.13.22 at 3:01 pm

Kevin O said we need a sacrifice to get out of this. I’m kinda thinking we are getting close with pension funds losing in crypto. That’s the kinda stuff he was talking about when he said there was something ugly somewhere that needed to show itself before we started returning to normalcy. Just know it’s gonna get worse before it gets worse.

#6 Salvador Daliance on 06.13.22 at 3:05 pm

What not join El Salvador in a Bitcoin Economic Union, the BEU

#7 Schleprox on 06.13.22 at 3:12 pm

Maybe a short 5 year depression could reset things….worked before!

#8 crowdedelevatorfartz on 06.13.22 at 3:14 pm

The choices for PM in 2024 may be
“Jokers to the left of me, Jokers to the right.
Here I am .
Stuck in the middle with you.”

My god.

#9 Victor Llearna on 06.13.22 at 3:16 pm

Hope the Bitcoin and NFT sheep learn a lesson. Its worse than the Tulip bulb bubble.

#10 erik mtl on 06.13.22 at 3:16 pm

I used Celsius for a while. Only a small (three figure amount) deposited. The yield was interesting, obviously better than any sort of savings account. But I could never wrap my head around their business model. I truly couldn’t fathom how they could return so much without their being some sketchy, risky business behind the scenes. Thankfully I withdrew and sold everything from their platform months ago..

if it seems to good to be true..

#11 alexinvestor on 06.13.22 at 3:19 pm

CAD is at 78cents with oil at 120 USD. If oil ever drops to 80 or so, CAD will get destroyed.

#12 Paddy on 06.13.22 at 3:19 pm

“If the hikes continue, they say, selling is the only option”
I don’t really understand this, where do they go if they sell? Live under a bridge?

Get out of debt and other ownership costs they cannot service, obviously. It is far cheaper to rent. – Garth

#13 West New West on 06.13.22 at 3:20 pm

Took a good look at crypto a few years ago. Lots of positives and negatives in my opinion. As a sound investment? Forget about it. As a currency? Not so sure.
But, as a decentralized tracking system, well, that has its potential in my opinion. For example, what if elections were held via this system? Again, just an opinion, but, all of this voter corruption we hear about in the US would be greatly reduced. Everyones vote, protected with anonimity, in every election, would be there, forever, in perpetuity, or as long as the internet exists.

What voter corruption? Sixty courts found none. – Garth

#14 Ballingsford on 06.13.22 at 3:20 pm

Pepe is ridiculous. Maybe he could swing votes if he promised us non-refundable credits at tax time on our vet bills.

#15 Millennial 1%er on 06.13.22 at 3:21 pm

Not your keys, not your crypto.

Holding crypto since ~2016. Still up. By a lot.

#16 Søren Angst on 06.13.22 at 3:25 pm

Markets: US. Asia. Europe. Crypto. Futures.

All Red, even oil futures.

VIX only thing in the Green.

———————

“Go to Reddit and read the suicidal posts made by Mills and Zs who were just wiped out. The last thing these folks need is someone telling them it’s different this time.” – Garth

THAT was good.

The poor things. Our Youth is getting hammered.

#17 Soviet Capitalist on 06.13.22 at 3:26 pm

Bank of Canada is brave for now…
Central banking can work for as long as they keep a positive, real rate of return for savers. That being said, it wouldn’t take long before BoC chickens out and says that the speculators have suffered enough, then reverses the hikes and let’s Bitcoin and houses go back to the Moon.

#18 Sail Away on 06.13.22 at 3:27 pm

Oh boy, today’s heroes:
The Caisse de depot et placement du Quebec

I especially like their righteous declaration about wanting to ‘get out of oil in 2022’. How contemporarily woke. Maybe right about now would be a good time to revise that to a more realistic intention of ‘really trying to avoid bankrupt in 2022’.

https://thecanadian.news/the-caisse-de-depot-et-placement-du-quebec-wants-to-get-out-of-oil-in-2022/

Rarely do we see a better example of Going Woke, Going Broke.

Referring to Doug’s post yesterday, this is the exact issue with choosing a good financial advisor, because the Caisse IS a financial advisor. With credentials and highly-educated analysts and everything. Busily losing their clients’ money.

#19 The Great Gazoo on 06.13.22 at 3:33 pm

I think we are going to see a few real estate “barons” looking for work soon. I know a few folks in their 40’s who only work part-time since they had it all figured out investing in real estate.

If this continues and I think it will,some will be forced back into doing some real work. I mean this was crazy countless people sucking money out the system and not making a meaningful contribution – at least in my view.

The next year (and likely longer) is going to be interesting to see what shakes out. Sadly though, some innocent and ill informed folks are going to get hurt really bad – if they haven’t already.

#20 SunShowers on 06.13.22 at 3:33 pm

Question for you Garth,

In addition to bitcoins and other cryptocurrencies, lots of these exchanges also hold fiat currencies for their users, to facilitate the buying/selling of cryptocurrencies.

A report went out awhile ago outlining that in the event one of these exchanges declares bankruptcy, folks with crypto “on deposit” would be treated as unsecured creditors on the estate, with very little likelihood of being made whole.

Would the treatment be any different for fiat currencies being held “on deposit” by the exchange?

Thanks!

Why would it? – Garth

#21 Concerned Citizen on 06.13.22 at 3:34 pm

Crypto going to zero is one of the signs I’m watching to determine when the excess has come out of system. As I type bitcoin is trading at $23,250 – that’s $23,250 too much, IMO. I agree, Polievre showed himself to be an unserious person when he hitched his wagon to crypto. He’s right to criticise the central bankers and some of the so-called gatekeepers, but crypto (magic coins) don’t solve anything.

Other signs I’m watching that have yet to come to pass:

– Meme stocks go bye-bye (for example, GME goes to $20)

– The average mature, slow growing large cap trades for 15-18 times earnings (not 20+ times).

– Earnings decline (IMO, earnings have been juiced from all sides by temporary factors – money printing, government spending, savings glut, etc – we need to see them decline to more sustainable levels).

I hate to say I told you so, but I said previously that things would start breaking if central banks raise into the 1-2% range. Well, whaddya know, we’re now in a bear market. And it looks like rates will have to go much higher to quell the inflation monster. And the quantitative tightening hasn’t even started! The second part of my prediction was that the central banks would cave soon after. I hope that doesn’t come to pass, as the system needs a very thorough cleansing – we haven’t had one since 2009. And with inflation this high, I don’t think they can be seen as not fighting inflation right now, so in that respect their hands are tied.

It’s amazing how many problems money printing can paper over. Now with the tide going out, we’ll see who has been swimming naked. I suspect it’ll look much like a nude beach.

#22 Calgary on 06.13.22 at 3:36 pm

If you have half a million cash now, what would you buy? Everything seems down except interest rates.

Then buy what’s down. Or wait for it to go up and buy less. – Garth

#23 Alberta Boy on 06.13.22 at 3:37 pm

Best case scenario is a bad recession. Pray for a bad recession people.

#24 Faron on 06.13.22 at 3:40 pm

Good read today Garth. When I was working at the co-working space last year some of the youths were talking about hosting financial education nights… with crypto as a talking point. Ugh. Hard pass.

I recall the coin “Solana” being batted around a lot. Now 85% lower in “value” (actual value is $0). Poor tykes.

In a rising rate environment assets must be productive. They have to gush cash or show their ability to grow the business at a very rapid rate. The rise of speculative tech over the past 20 years has been based on the hope of future cash flows and that hope was enabled by cheap credit and abundant capital to be ventured. Hopium is dead as an asset.

That dynamic does not and can not work in a sharply inflationary environment. This is why the components of ARKK are down, why social media is down, why TSLA is down. “Story” stocks cannot thrive when the investing environment demands productive cash flow now, not tomorrow.

This also plays into the equity valuations of entities heavily dependent on junk rated debt i.e. NFLX. The cost of financing new shows is rapidly outpacing their ability to generate more cash and, thus, the equity has to go down.

We are getting back to a time when multiples matter. Until the market bottoms, compression will be the rule and low multiple corporations will win the day +- sector factors. We’ll know we are there when the most storyful stocks get back to their pre-COVID levels. ARKK is there (looking set to return to 2017). There are others floating high in the ether still. Not many, but some.

#25 Søren Angst on 06.13.22 at 3:41 pm

The Cdn RE is really going to bite a lot of people, more like maul.

2019 Economic Family, Individuals – All Cdns:

9.85M Cdns have a Principal Residence, 61.9% of the total.
– Median value = $400K, Average = $598.5K.
– 5.5M have a mortgage on their Principal Residence, Median = $180K, Average = $220.6K.

2.789M have Other RE, 17.5% of the total.
– Median value = $200K, Average = $456.1K.
– 1.055M have a mortgage on Other RE, Median = $178.3K, Average = $278.7K.

The above is for 2019.

Imagine the pain that there will be upon renewal factoring in higher rates, higher mortgage amounts and values dropping.

—————-

This will not end well for +10M Cdn families, individuals.

#26 Leftover on 06.13.22 at 3:43 pm

Attended a BBQ with several other boomer couples last weekend. Talk rotated around the usual topics until we hit the economy and interest rates. One guy, on his fourth beer, admitted that his HELOC was looking nasty, but he felt it was a necessary evil to go into hock to help his kid buy a house last year.

That got the conversation going; it turns out that of the 6 couples there, 4 had HELOC’d their way into 2022. 3 to help their kids buy a house, one to buy a boat and “pay off other debts(?)”.

Lots of talk about how lucky we all were to have bought houses 30 years ago, but now the government needs to “do something”.

At least we didn’t get onto crypto.

#27 Waystar Royco Shareholder on 06.13.22 at 3:45 pm

Don’t most credit cards have a fixed interest rate?

Ex: 19.99% on purchases and 21.99% on carh advances

So they should be impacted by CB rate increases (not that it helps, since the rates ridiculously high already)

#28 Bitcoin Bro on 06.13.22 at 3:45 pm

BTC is now hovering at and around it’s realized price cap which has historically indicated the bottom of the bear market … a perfect buying opportunity for all you boomer and gen x dog bloggers out there ;). I kid, I kid.

Despite all the shitcoin and defi insanity (I 100% agree with your commentary on Celcius Garth) and even as it approaches a new bottom this cycle, a friendly reminder that it is still the best-performing financial asset of the last decade by far. Bitcoin and only Bitcoin remains the only a-political, uncensorable, and truly peer-to-peer financial settlement system in the world.

#29 Waystar Royco Shareholder on 06.13.22 at 3:46 pm

**meant to write “shouldn’t” be impacted by CB rate increases**

#30 Spring fwd on 06.13.22 at 3:47 pm

Don’t worry anyone.

The Central banks will do an about face and stop dropping rates again by year end. The market is doing a majority of the work for them, a few more piddly hikes as they have no other choice but a depression if they were serious about inflation. Trust me, they ain’t serious bout anything except protecting their masters.

Yes US debt levels not bad this time around, yet with oil going to continue to go up in price, this inflation thing needs much higher rates to be slayed and we know the CB’s have zero appetite for real MEANINGFUL hikes.

Shock us all with a 1.0% hike this week… no it will be .50% slow, careful and steady. Just enough to appease their masters and maintain the hair width credibility they have left.

So hang on people, a little more worse to come then happy days and lower rates are back again…

They have noooooooooooo choice.

#31 Reality Check on 06.13.22 at 3:47 pm

Manulife’s survey – 1 in 5 homeowners have to sell if interest rates rise?

I am always very sceptical of these “self assessment” surveys. This self assessment survey essentially ask
“tell us how hard done by and how bad off you will be if interest rates go up”. So of course the results are “poor us” if rates go any higher it will be a disaster and we will be forced to sell our homes. And the results of the survey imply that, since yes, interest rates will be rising, that 1/5 of Canadian homes will come to market over the next couple years. That would be about 3.5 million extra homes to hit the market (there are about 600,000 houses sold annually in Canada). This would double or triple houses coming on the market over the next couple years which would result in an utter free fall of prices (visions of Phoenix circa 2009). Seriously is this going to happen? Very, very unlikely. For 20% of Canadian homeowners to be at risk of default interest rates would have to rise precipitously.

I know so many families living “on the edge” with their $200,000-300,000 two income government jobs. They literally claim they have nothing left at the end of the month or are continually in the red. And of course these poor hard done by folks have two late model Toyotas in the driveway, a couple of $100/m cell phone plans, $160/m internet/cable plan, eat lunch out several days a week, order in a couple times a week, can’t possibly do yoga in anything other than Lulu, run off to Mexico for 2 weeks each winter and send the kid to $1800 summer goalie camps. Lots and lots of fat available to cut.

Now as rates rise there will be people forced to sell and this will increase listings and will put downward pressure on prices. But there will be no price free fall. For the most, the people “living on the edge” will cut luxuries and find a few hundred dollars extra to pay increased mortgages costs.

The big caveat to all this is how high rates go. If it’s a 1990s scenario and mortgages rates top out in the 6-9% range expect meaningful but no catastrophic price reductions. In the extremely unlikely event it’s a 1980s scenario when rates went to the mid-teens, look out below, it would be a housing “reset” to rival the US reset of the Great Recession.

I just hope and pray our governments do not spend my money to try to fix the problem.

#32 Caffeine Monkey on 06.13.22 at 3:55 pm

I’m just stunned that Quebec’s pension fund fell for this obvious Ponzi scheme. This is yet another example of why self-directed retirement account is superior to any “defined benefit” pension. Defined should come with an asterisk in all cases. And yet Canadians still seem to have a quaint attachment to defined benefit pensions.

#33 Jason on 06.13.22 at 4:02 pm

The boring 60/40 portfolio might not be up this year, but it’s better than chasing the alternatives.

Be boring and don’t get hosed by charlatans selling crypto or anything leveraged.

#34 James on 06.13.22 at 4:04 pm

Here’s a very useful, balanced article about crypto, Garth, from the New York Times last week.

It really helps you have a better understanding of the fragility and arbitrariness of of all of this stuff. Dangerous and high risk, without transparency except for the naive.

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/06/06/science/bitcoin-nakamoto-blackburn-crypto.html?fbclid=IwAR2uyCXsH-WEe82yGR81LDwe5Bqj6cch4KItn2JrkT21kBDaJrYIfrHWie4

Also, former Treasury Secretary Larry Summers on CNN this week makes a good case for an impending recession coming in the next two years, so best to prepare for that. His past projections have been pretty good.

https://www.cnn.com/videos/politics/2022/06/12/summers-full.cnn

#35 Linda on 06.13.22 at 4:04 pm

The issue with ‘give people back control of their money’ is that history has proven the vast majority have problems managing their finances. It also implies that someone or something – presumably that evil Mr. Tiff at the CB – is responsible for any fiscal mess folks may be experiencing. Because, you know, they ‘don’t have control of their money’. Really? I’m not responsible for my spending, saving or investing decisions because I’m ‘not in control of’ my money? When did that happen? Was a law passed taking said control away from me when I wasn’t looking? Will a bank forgive my loans/debts owing if I tell them Tiff is to blame for any overdrawn account? Will I garner sympathy if I tell the bank that I’m really very sorry, but I just can’t control my spending & just had to max out my credit cards? So the fact I can’t pay them back is really their fault, because they should have realized I didn’t have control of my monetary decisions? Sweet! And if the bank has any issues with my stance, I’ll just send them to Pierre. He’ll take care of the matter for helpless little me & ensure those big bad banks don’t bully me into taking responsibility for my actions.

#36 Ustabe on 06.13.22 at 4:05 pm

Don’t know or care about crypto but my newsfeed did have a couple of interesting things today…

Tesla has to recall 830,000 cars after a NHTSA investigation.

Tesla is still under investigation for a small programming bit whereby the auto pilot is turned off a second before any impact. This apparently gives them legal deniability that said impacts were the result of auto drive feature.

The SEC is also investigating Musk for a couple of egregious moves he made that might have manipulated share prices.

Last, do not, under any circumstances buy a used Telsa out of Nanaimo, BC until you get to check it out with a black light in the interior.

#37 Ed on 06.13.22 at 4:09 pm

I’m not a fan of crypto but Pierre has enough other original ideas to appeal to me.

#38 Søren Angst on 06.13.22 at 4:10 pm

Mr. Mkt closed.

Went to see the damage on my Threadbare Portfolio YTD Time Weighted Return and it wasn’t bad:

+17.2%

Went down less than 0.5%.

Dividends this week and in a couple of weeks should bring it back up a bit, provided today’s Mr. Market rights itself over the next few weeks.

yeah oil. yeah Maple. yeah high yield monthly dividends. B&D best I can afford. Value stocks. No more single stock picks (RE: TWTR Albatross dumbness by me).

So far so good, fingers crossed.

#39 Faron on 06.13.22 at 4:13 pm

#18 Sail Away on 06.13.22 at 3:27 pm

…their righteous declaration… ‘get out of oil in 2022’…. Going Woke, Going Broke.
…Busily losing their clients’ money.

How’s that HELOC treating you? Nice job top-ticking the market on that one!

Also $400 million is 0.1% of their AUM

Also, you have proof that they “got out of oil”? Article is from last year, things change.

Also, their annualized returns are 9.6% over 10 years. Hardly “losing clients’ money”. Derp.

Just ’cause your portfolio is sucking arse doesn’t mean you should tear apart others.

#40 Søren Angst on 06.13.22 at 4:17 pm

#30 Spring fwd

Oil futures:

https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/future/crude%20oil%20-%20electronic

Check contract prices to the end of the year and beyond.

Clear to me you have not lived thru a nasty inflation cycle.

Took near 10 years late 70’s, 80’s to right the inflation ship all the while there were 2 recessions.

So if you think it’s going to be tickety boo by year end, dream on.

It will not be different this time, that should be clear as day by now.

#41 Sail Away on 06.13.22 at 4:18 pm

This RE uncertainty is a perfect teachable situation for the next gen as the reason the Sail Away conglomerate is very careful about incurring mortgage debt.

If RE is unaffordable: be patient, buy somewhere else, or rent and evaluate for the time being.

Debt-free by 40 is a good rule of thumb. 35 even better. Always make sure the kids get a good education, but a house is and always will be just a house. Think carefully and plan accordingly.

#42 Spring Fwd on 06.13.22 at 4:21 pm

Pretty please let’s see a .75% hike this week and watch the markets blow up.

Think about it, the Central banks have done such a horrible mistake since Greenspan that LESS THAN 1% can drop things nicely deep. Start buying around 3000 ES for a bounce?

Would you even get out of bed to make a .75% profit on something?

End the Central Banks, Long tar, feathers, lamp posts and mobs coming soon to somewhere close soon.

Actually many believe Mr. Market would celebrate some giant rate moves. Inflation is the enemy. – Garth

#43 JR on 06.13.22 at 4:21 pm

Details matter, Celcius Network is ‘CEFI’ no ‘DEFI’ meaning it’s centralized finance, not decentralized.. Big difference. Also the pension company investing should have done due diligence and risk profile with what they are investing in.
Check out Curve Finance for a real DEFI protocol.
Garth, these details matter.
Also, BTC won’t die – it will rise again, with no more supply to ever be created for than the algorithm allows.

#44 presley1000 on 06.13.22 at 4:24 pm

“There is no silver bullet.”

But there is. Got the 10oz sitting on my office desk.
https://silvergoldbull.ca/silver-bullets

#45 mike from mtl on 06.13.22 at 4:34 pm

Pepe is absolutely correct on central bank digital currency (CBDC) – is something no one asked for and is a net negative for everyone except CB/sitting governments.

CBDC not simply closing the ‘cash loophole’ but a matter of complete control.

#46 Dougie on 06.13.22 at 4:36 pm

Thank goodness we don’t rely on CDPQ to administer our own pension accounts. Too woke for words, and confusing investment with social considerations, i.e. in with Bitcoin (valueless fad) and out with fossil energy (sure to be in demand for decades to come). If Pepe takes over Canada’s government, we are all headed for the poorhouse. What a maroon!

#47 The Original Jake on 06.13.22 at 4:40 pm

S&P closes in bear market. Waiting for Dow to do the same and close below 29.5k before we bottom.

#48 Faron on 06.13.22 at 4:45 pm

#36 Ustabe on 06.13.22 at 4:05 pm

Last, do not, under any circumstances buy a used Telsa out of Nanaimo, BC until you get to check it out with a black light in the interior.

Hah ha haa. Gazing into Elon’s dreamy eyes has that effect on some…

Sad thing about the TSLA 3:1 split is that we’ll probably never see TSLA 420.69.

Obvious thing about the split is cheaper call option contracts so Elon can pump the stock harder than ever.

#41 Sail Away on 06.13.22 at 4:18 pm

very careful about incurring mortgage debt.

*clear’s throat* HELOC says what?

#49 SunShowers on 06.13.22 at 4:50 pm

“Why would it? – Garth”

Well that’s why I was asking, I don’t know anything about bankruptcy proceedings, so I wasn’t sure if there was any kind of distinction between property which needs to be liquidated first and literal cash on hand with respect to repayment of creditors. Thanks for answering!

#50 OK, Doomer on 06.13.22 at 4:54 pm

“And look at this survey by Manulife. Yikes. Almost a fifth of homeowners report a “significant negative impact” from interest rates – already. If the hikes continue, they say, selling is the only option. Two in three think real estate in unaffordable despite the big price drop now occurring in many markets. Half say debt is affecting their mental health as they struggle financially.” – Garth
++++++++++++++++

The funny part about the Manulife survey is that it was done in the good ol’ days of mid April. Long before interest rates started to spike.

Give it 6 months and a half dozen rate increase and we’ll see who’s been living in the land of Heloc the Merciless.

#51 Caffeine Monkey on 06.13.22 at 5:02 pm

#43 JR on 06.13.22 at 4:21 pm
Check out Curve Finance for a real DEFI protocol.
——-
Except that the existence of the Curve EmergencyDAO means it’s really not completely decentralized, right? Not that it matters: decentralization doesn’t have has the sort of intrinsic good that crypto bros claim it does. It’s okay, they’ll eventually come around and realize that maybe things like the SEC exist for good reason. Maybe. In the meantime, I watch in amusement as every week delivers another DeFi hack.

#52 Bitcoin Bro on 06.13.22 at 5:03 pm

“The issue with ‘give people back control of their money’ is that history has proven the vast majority have problems managing their finances. It also implies that someone or something – presumably that evil Mr. Tiff at the CB – is responsible for any fiscal mess folks may be experiencing. Because, you know, they ‘don’t have control of their money’. Really? I’m not responsible for my spending, saving or investing decisions because I’m ‘not in control of’ my money? When did that happen? ”

Linda, Garth’s blog is a great read but you really ought to pick up one of the many history books on money and monetary crisis that have occurred. “When Money Dies” is a great and harrowing one.

Currency devaluation by central monetary authorities absolutely does rob smart, hard-working people of the control of their money. Read up on some of the creative ways the folks in Turkey are having to deal with hyperinflation as we speak. It’s important to get these perspectives.

Hyperinflation in a developed country today with a central bank is impossible. Worry about something real. – Garth

#53 The Original Jake on 06.13.22 at 5:05 pm

Nothing goes straight up. Crypto crashing now, oil is in the cross hairs next. The whisper on the street is oil going to $150. Let it rip higher, cause I will be happy to ride it down after it implodes. It is unsustainable at that level.

#54 45north on 06.13.22 at 5:05 pm

Yes, folks who signed up at 1.5% may soon face 4.5%. Monthly payments normally do not change, but interest charges swell fast and the amount to be financed upon renewal is a shock. Meanwhile folks with HELOCs are seeing immediate consequences as interest charges bolt with every chartered bank prime hike. Recall that using a home equity LOC and mortgage money at achieve 100% financing on an investment property (rental) was a popular move over the last two years. Now those folks are not only in negative cash flow (tenants don’t cover costs) but the asset is in capital decline. Gulp.

this is a disaster! An absolute disaster!

#55 Shawn on 06.13.22 at 5:08 pm

What happens in A crypto exchange bankruptcy?

#20 SunShowers on 06.13.22 at 3:33 pm
Question for you Garth,

In addition to bitcoins and other cryptocurrencies, lots of these exchanges also hold fiat currencies for their users, to facilitate the buying/selling of cryptocurrencies.

A report went out awhile ago outlining that in the event one of these exchanges declares bankruptcy, folks with crypto “on deposit” would be treated as unsecured creditors on the estate, with very little likelihood of being made whole.

Would the treatment be any different for fiat currencies being held “on deposit” by the exchange?

Thanks!

Why would it? – Garth

******************************
If they are bankrupt and the crypto is worthless it seems likely that no one gets anything.

Could they send you back some “physical crypto” even though it is worthless? Of course not, Well, could they send you a certificate saying you own so many units of such and such flavor of crypto? It would have some value if you find some fool to sell it to.

The “fiat” (you mean real actual?) cash on deposit might have some value if the exchange’s actual cash liabilities happen to be lower than its deposit liabilities.

Anyhow, crypto was always a akin to tulips. Sorry.

#56 45north on 06.13.22 at 5:10 pm

Concerned Citizen

Polièvre showed himself to be an unserious person when he hitched his wagon to crypto. He’s right to criticise the central bankers and some of the so-called gatekeepers, but crypto (magic coins) don’t solve anything.

Polièvre has lost his way.

#57 crowdedelevatorfartz on 06.13.22 at 5:13 pm

@#36 Leftover
“…it turns out that of the 6 couples there, 4 had HELOC’d their way into 2022. 3 to help their kids buy a house, one to buy a boat and “pay off other debts(?)”.

+++
I’m thinking this is a fairly typical example of the housing situation.
Tons of house or mortgage owners using their equity as a bank machine.

Lets see how many are still happy and “pay cheque positive” in 2023….

#58 Shawn on 06.13.22 at 5:16 pm

Proposed Proverb:

“Man who pejoratively describes dollars and euros and such as ‘fiat’ is likely to lose his shirt in crypto so-called currency”.

Oh, and please call me when dollars are measured in units of Bitcoin or even grains of gold rather than the other way around.

Bitcoin is always quoted in supposedly inferior fiat currency dollars, hilarious!

#59 Faron on 06.13.22 at 5:19 pm

#37 Ed on 06.13.22 at 4:09 pm
I’m not a fan of crypto but Pierre has enough other original ideas to appeal to me.

Doesn’t his lack of discernment on a financial asset as the finance critic hint to you that some of his other “ideas” are equally hair brained?

#60 Shawn on 06.13.22 at 5:21 pm

A failed crypto exchange (with some unique coin) can pay off its crypto coin depositors / owners at the full market value of that busted coin. That is, zero. I prefer the chances of the dollar depositors to possibly get at least something. But that might be a slim chance in most cases.

#61 Adam on 06.13.22 at 5:24 pm

Interestingly, this will be the first recession we’ve had where younger folks are heavily invested in the stock market. Back in 2008 online trading wasn’t huge and there certainly was no Robinhood, crypto, Wallstreetbets or any of that stuff. The little ones sure have gotten sucked into this game nicely and unfortunately they don’t have the maturity level to handle it in some cases. It’s concerning to think anyone would kill themselves over heavy losses in things like crypto.

#62 espressobob on 06.13.22 at 5:32 pm

Equity markets are just starting to look interesting from a contrarian view.

Commodities on the other hand that are tangible are bad enough, but this crypto play has all the red flags attached. Some don’t see this?

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ponzi_scheme

#63 Sail Away on 06.13.22 at 5:39 pm

#36 Ustabe on 06.13.22 at 4:05 pm

…my newsfeed did have a couple of interesting things today…

Tesla has to recall 830,000 cars after a NHTSA investigation.

——–

Hmmm… that recall does not show up in my searches. Can you please send link? Thx.

#64 crowdedelevatorfartz on 06.13.22 at 5:49 pm

@#59 Faron.
“….hint to you that some of his other “ideas” are equally hair brained?…”

+++
A debt drowning voter will grasp at straws after 6 years of “Trillion Dollar Trudeau”.

#65 Shawn on 06.13.22 at 5:49 pm

Young People losing their Shirts in the market

#61 Adam on 06.13.22 at 5:24 pm

Interestingly, this will be the first recession we’ve had where younger folks are heavily invested in the stock market. Back in 2008 online trading wasn’t huge and there certainly was no Robinhood, crypto, Wallstreetbets or any of that stuff. The little ones sure have gotten sucked into this game nicely and unfortunately they don’t have the maturity level to handle it in some cases. It’s concerning to think anyone would kill themselves over heavy losses in things like crypto.

****************************
There must also have been many thousands who lost big amounts in GameStop. In some cases they only lost previous paper gains. But we all know that would hurt massively. Having turned say $5k into say $60k or more and then failed to sell and see it all evaporate would be devastating to someone with a net worth of next to nothing.

With that and now crypto losses they will living (alone) in their childhood bedrooms a while longer.

Actually the losses and the harsh reality of being an INCEL is a very bad situation. Suicide is a definite risk. God help those people and their families.

#66 Squire on 06.13.22 at 5:50 pm

Heads are going to roll in Quebec. $400 mill ?? bad time to lose money, much less pension money. Yikes

#67 george on 06.13.22 at 5:54 pm

Governments and CB flood the world with printed money and throw a wrench in the supply chain….what did they expect?

#68 Jay (not that one) on 06.13.22 at 5:56 pm

Watching the everything bubble burst gives me hope that we might see a realignment to productive assets. Hopefully having all this money and nothing to spend it on might be a bit of an “aha” moment for people who have been dazzled by non-productive assets for too long.

I’m on the record as supporting pepe’s campaign, but just as I don’t agree with everything you say, I don’t agree with anything he says either. I hope that any free man would have the same to say about any other person he respects.

#69 T-Rev on 06.13.22 at 6:04 pm

I have one friend with $0.3M invested in crypto mining rigs, and another with $0.1M. They are idle today because the value of the tokens is less than the cost of the power to mine them. The mining buddies don’t hold the coins, they sell them as soon as they’re produced so as to limit their price exposure. Guys in their 30s and 40s.

I have other friends with between $20,000-$100,000 “invested” in the tokens themselves. These investments in some cases are now worthless. Guys in their 20s-40s.

Me? Won’t touch tulips, but I’ll sell the seeds and potting soil to others so I did build a couple small mining rigs, sold pre-paid, during the big hype last fall. I told my buyers that they were nuts, but if they wanted a computer I’d build them one. Have never mined nor purchased crypto for myself. It’s vapor.

Now, the opinion of value wrt crypto is somewhat subjective- it’s worth what you can sell it for, no more, no less, and my opinion of value (i.e. that it has none) is no better than anyone else’s, but maybe we could discuss some facts:

FACT: Globally, Bitcoin is able to process about seven transactions per second. Seven. This is not a problem that can be fixed, it’s a limit in the technology itself.

FACT: There are about 12,000 credit card transactions per second globally.

FACT: Credit card transactions are but a fraction of overall financial transactions. Cash, debit, and electronic transfers are estimated to push the total transactions over 30,000-40,000/s globally.

Opinion: So anyone who ever thought that BTC was going to replace existing means of exchange was off their rocker. You’d have to find a way to handle the other 99.98% of global finance. Sure, you could invent more tokens (ETH, ADA, RVN, DODGE, anyone?) but essentially you’re then just printing more tokens, backed by nothing, with an unlimited supply, no regulation, and zero tangible value.

There was no other way for this to end. I just hope it’s truly over, and this ends the speculative ponzi.

Interesting and alarming to watch the everything bubble blow up in real time. Happening much faster than I anticipated. The crucial info we’re all waiting on is whether increased rates will staunch inflation quickly and allow a return to looser monetary policy, or whether this will persist in spite of rate hikes thereby necessitating more rate hikes and deepening the fallout. Wild times.

Take care of yourselves out there. Remember that time and health are the only assets of real value and that the rest is just numbers on a screen- they go up, they go down, and if you listen to Garth you’ll do just fine.

#70 Bitcoin Bro on 06.13.22 at 6:04 pm

“Hyperinflation in a developed country today with a central bank is impossible. Worry about something real. – Garth”

I’m not worried about hyperinflation in Canada. I was just pointing out the fallacy in Linda’s argument, which is very common rhetoric among wealthy older folks in my experience. All for personal responsibility but it’s also a fact of history that central monetary authorities do screw up money for average people over time. I would argue in the case of Canada it’s manifested in wealth inequality, shrinking middle class, and the housing crisis. It’s not as cut and dry as “Pepe” makes it out to be in his little youtube stump videos but our central bankers absolutely bear some of the blame. They were the ones that mandated 15 years of easy money and credit at the end of the day.

Also – Turkey. Central Bank, check. Developed country according to the UN, check. Top 20 world GDP, check. Hyperinflation, check. Just sayin’ ;).

“Hyperinflation is defined by a threshold in the rate of increase in prices of 50% per month by one definition, 1000% per year by another. From: Handbook of Monetary Economics, 2010.” Turkey inflation now: 52%/year. Not even close. Just sayin’. – Garth

#71 Reshet on 06.13.22 at 6:08 pm

The gold:Dow ratio just keeps going up

#72 catzndogz on 06.13.22 at 6:08 pm

Nobody knows nutin’.

#73 Penny Henny on 06.13.22 at 6:10 pm

#59 Faron on 06.13.22 at 5:19 pm
#37 Ed on 06.13.22 at 4:09 pm
I’m not a fan of crypto but Pierre has enough other original ideas to appeal to me.

Doesn’t his lack of discernment on a financial asset as the finance critic hint to you that some of his other “ideas” are equally hair brained?

///////////////

Meh, look who you got on the other side.
“The budget will balance itself”

#74 Interloper on 06.13.22 at 6:11 pm

Yeah, nah, sorry Garth, I’m still voting for Pierre.

#75 T-Rev on 06.13.22 at 6:18 pm

I should add that Pepe was going to get my vote about a year ago. But after his recent stunts with crypto and calling to Tiff’s head, I see him for what he is. Won’t be voting PP anymore. Will hold my nose and support Charest.

#76 Bob Loblaw on 06.13.22 at 6:18 pm

So while everything else crashes to prices not seen since Obama was President, 416 home prices continue to rise. Is a plot of dirt with a pile of 150 year old bricks and wood really more valuable than Google and Apple? Has the world truly lost its mind? If Putin nuked Toronto turning it into a radioactive wasteland would the average 416 home price climb to $10 million? Stay tuned!

416 real estate is no longer climbing in value. – Garth

#77 T Rex and the dinosaur clique on 06.13.22 at 6:19 pm

There is likely a recession coming, and that is just how it is going to be.

It won’t be the interest rate hikes that do it, but they’ll help.

Inflation won’t push us there, but it will have something to do with it.

It’s just where we are on the cycle. Will it be a painful recession? Look for the canaries.

If you start hearing about banks being unable to make their obligations in the USA, look out. Last time that happened the world nearly ended (financially, anyway) – remember 2008

Things are going to be scarce and expensive. People are going to develop a head and toes for avarice and economy (something our Mils and Z’s never had to do).

The thing is, when stuff like this happens, the folks who go through it don’t recover. The people who lose everything will not go on to earn it all back. Most of them will just become broken individuals who end up living their lives bitter and disappointed.

Oh well.

Like all recessions, this one is a buying opportunity.

Cause we buy low and sell high. That is what we do. When times are good, we don’t buy anything. When times are rough, buy it all. Everything is on sale.

#78 KNOW IT ALL on 06.13.22 at 6:35 pm

BITCOIN…..The only sound form of money!

#79 Joe on 06.13.22 at 6:37 pm

thats not even 1% of CDPG managed assets of $419 Billion, but still, risky behaviour

#80 J on 06.13.22 at 6:43 pm

#69 T-Rev on 06.13.22 at 6:04 pm
“Have never mined nor purchased crypto for myself. It’s vapor.”
————————

I agree with you T-Rev. So does a Berkeley computer science prof who has studied cryptocurrencies for years. I may have posted this link before, but in case not here it is: https://www.currentaffairs.org/2022/05/why-this-computer-scientist-says-all-cryptocurrency-should-die-in-a-fire/

#81 Faron on 06.13.22 at 6:46 pm

#63 Sail Away on 06.13.22 at 5:39 pm
#36 Ustabe on 06.13.22 at 4:05 pm

https://static.nhtsa.gov/odi/inv/2022/INOA-EA22002-3184.PDF

https://fortune.com/2022/06/10/elon-musk-tesla-nhtsa-investigation-traffic-safety-autonomous-fsd-fatal-probe/

Ustabe’s words were not quite accurate. It’s a pending recall whose status has been upgraded one notch closer.

______________________________________________

#73 Penny Henny on 06.13.22 at 6:10 pm

Meh, look who you got on the other side.
“The budget will balance itself”

The principle that revenue growth could push a budget closer to balance is much more firm than the belief that a digital unicorn has any value. Sorry.

______________________________________________

#64 crowdedelevatorfartz on 06.13.22 at 5:49 pm

A debt drowning voter will grasp at straws after 6 years of “Trillion Dollar Trudeau”.

They can grasp all they want, but Trudeau’s leadership can be blamed for the deficit only. And even there, Trudeau spent more but also put Canada’s economy on a more firm footing than many others where deficit spending was deep. If you are truly worried about the deficit, there are plenty of subsidies that could be hacked away at.

Any central bank complaining has to be reconciled with what CBs have done the world over and will continue to do. Right or wrong. Blaming Trudeau for CB actions is pointless.

#82 Gen Z on 06.13.22 at 6:46 pm

Dog Coin is at 6 cents as we write. It was about 80 cents at the peak and stayed at 36 cents for a while.

#83 Ustabe on 06.13.22 at 6:47 pm

#63 Sail Away on 06.13.22 at 5:39 pm

#36 Ustabe on 06.13.22 at 4:05 pm

…my newsfeed did have a couple of interesting things today…

Tesla has to recall 830,000 cars after a NHTSA investigation.

——–

Hmmm… that recall does not show up in my searches. Can you please send link? Thx.

From Car and Driver, 2 days ago. Absolute first Google search result, maybe learn how to use the Internet for something other than this blog and Grindr, eh?

Quote: 830,000 Teslas with Autopilot under NHTSA Investigation, Recall Possible. Tesla EVs dating back to 2014 are involved as the safety agency probes the way the driver-assistance software identifies potential incidents with stopped first responder vehicles.2 days ago” End Quote.

The headline I read made it sound like the recall had happened, hence my wording. Maybe it has, maybe it hasn’t, but I’m also certain you spent more time scanning the post for spelling errors than thinking about the substance of what these headlines mean. Right?

#84 Michael in-north-york on 06.13.22 at 6:49 pm

#82 I don’t know on 06.12.22 at 10:47 pm

#21 Adam on 06.12.22 at 4:48 pm

-Might the worst geopolitical take on the current situation I’ve ever read.

Full control of Ukraine? With what army? Remember that was supposed to be accomplished after 3 days. The majority of US weaponry has not even arrived yet, and while Russia continues to bleed, the US can sit back and send arms.
===

Indeed, Ukrainians are holding very well. They will not collapse.

But, Ukraine is not winning, and this is a big problem. Ukrainians are outgunned by the invading forces, and they have to stick to the defensive tactics.

At this rate, the war can drag on for many months. Maybe, for several years.

There is only one way to end the war, to avert the famine in developing countries, to fix the supply chain disruptions. Russia needs to lose quckly, and Putin needs to be dislodged.

Leaders of the Western nations, please send Ukrainians the weapons they need.

#85 Earlybird on 06.13.22 at 6:50 pm

Wtf is a pension fund doing investing in crypto?? That does not instill confidence or faith in the stewards of our future. Bitcoin is a figment of someones imagination….and is completely uninvestable.
I hope someone is held accountable…

#86 ogdoad on 06.13.22 at 6:53 pm

Recency bias has inherited the earths, supposed, most intelligent inhabitants…when you consider the last couple hundred years the plausibility of this phenomenon doesn’t strike me as weird.

Instead of working together to discover more of the unknown, we segregate. Houses, wealth, teslas, Youtube, B and D’s…shouldn’t our kids be stellar at math and be driving at like 10 by now?

Nope. We are first world, lazy losers. Measuring success by teslas and kids who are REALLY good on their cell phones (tiny clap on your back – job well done). Your zombie eyed offspring, who only smile when their cell tells them its okay, will live a productive life as a button pusher.

But I digress…my stupid lawn needs cutting, pets need to be fed, portfolio needs to be checked, neighbors need to be judged, reddit needs to be read, netflix needs to be watched and I need to be distracted from all that…by typing :)

ahhhhh, the sense of accomplishment.

Og

#87 My Body My Choice on 06.13.22 at 6:53 pm

I’ve been saying for years that Bitcoin and all cryptos are ponzi schemes. They’re a zero sum game. Any money taken out of the ponzi depends on some sucker putting money in.

Cryptos are actually worse than a zero sum game because of the cost of CPU time and electricity from each transaction. Also the fees charged by crypto exchanges and taxes levied by governments.

Poilievre made a rookie mistake when he unwittingly tied his political career to the price of Bitcoin.

Sure, many people got rich as cryptos skyrocketed. Now many are getting poor as cryptos crash.

#88 Quintilian on 06.13.22 at 6:56 pm

“Not long ago the guy who’ll be the next Con leader in Canada trashed the central bank and fomented liberty,”

This is truly disturbing. It reflects poorly on the people in the Conservative Party.

As much as I find the prospect of a Conservative government repulsive; I nonetheless realize that good governance in a parliamentary system hinge, to a large degree, on an effective, rational and responsible opposition.

So sad, have none of the curmudgeons ever read a history or economics book?

#89 My Body My Choice on 06.13.22 at 7:01 pm

DELETED

#90 baloney Sandwitch on 06.13.22 at 7:02 pm

#22:
Then buy what’s down. Or wait for it to go up and buy less. – Garth

lol – Not crypto, I hope.

Buy Maple. Our resources and commodities will save the day.

#91 Blobby on 06.13.22 at 7:04 pm

“Almost a fifth of homeowners report a “significant negative impact” from interest rates”

That’s CRAZY! Rates arent EVEN at pre-pandemic levels .. yet!

#92 2000 Mules on 06.13.22 at 7:05 pm

What voter corruption? Sixty courts found none. – Garth

The courts never heard the cases, all were tossed on technicalities… Can’t find what you’re not looking for!

I suggest anyone who wants to know the truth about the 2020 election watch 2000 Mules. This movie absolutely proves beyond any doubt that the election was stolen through ballot harvesting and ballot box stuffing. All caught on video.

Biden is illigitimate. A fraud. An affront to democracy… Anyone who runs cover for him is complicit in the scam.

(Allowed for comic relief. – Garth)

#93 Reality is stark on 06.13.22 at 7:09 pm

Never one to be the bearer of bad news but …..
Declarations of bankruptcy are about to skyrocket.
No way they’ll take a 10 year slow death.
When folks in bunnypatch take a 50% hit in 6 months on a mil and a half initial investment it’s capitulation and the divorce comes soon after.
Blood will be running in the streets.
This is carnage folks as central bankers play catch up.
A little tip for ya, drug companies specializing in anti-depressants for your rebound trade when you are ready.

#94 EJ Fudd on 06.13.22 at 7:14 pm

One of these days I am going to sell my mansion and my yacht.

#95 Love_The_Cottage on 06.13.22 at 7:21 pm

#37 Ed on 06.13.22 at 4:09 pm
I’m not a fan of crypto but Pierre has enough other original ideas to appeal to me.
_______
What would be 1 or 2 examples? I’m trying to keep an open mind. Thanks.

#96 I own gold on 06.13.22 at 7:23 pm

“Gold plopped today. So much for the inflation hedge.”

YTD and YoY gold is doing relatively well when compared to the major asset classes.

Also, rather than looking at gold independently we should look at its diversification potential in a broad portfolio. Gold has very little correlation with the other asset classes and by the magic of rebalancing gold pushes above its weight.

Total returns 1 year (price+ dividends)
==========================

VTIP +1.91% (Short term tips)
IAU -2.86% (gold)
TIP -3.50% (Intermediate TIPs)
DXP.TO -4.27% (Canadian preferred shares in CAD)
SHY -4.44% (Short Term US Treasuries)
VOO -9.30% (Big CAP US equities)
BND -11.42% (US Aggregate Bond)
IEF -12.40% (Intermediate Treasuries)
VT -15.28% (Global Stocks)
TLT -18.83% (Long Term US Treasuries)

https://stockcharts.com/freecharts/perf.php?IAU,VOO,VT,DXP.TO,VTIP,SHY,IEF,TLT,BND,BIL&n=253&O=111000

Total returns YTD (price+ dividends)
==========================
IAU +0.29% (gold)
VTIP -0.61% (Short term tips)
SHY -3.71% (Short Term US Treasuries)
TIP -7.29% (Intermediate TIPs)
DXP.TO -8.50% (Canadian preferred shares in CAD)
BND -11.60% (US Aggregate Bond)
IEF -12.64% (Intermediate Treasuries)
VT -20.68% (Global Stocks)
VOO -21.28% (Big CAP US equities)
TLT -22.72% (Long Term US Treasuries)

https://stockcharts.com/freecharts/perf.php?IAU,VOO,VT,DXP.TO,VTIP,SHY,IEF,TLT,BND,TIP&n=110&O=111000

Owning the TSX through an ETF is all the PM exposure most investors should have. – Garth

#97 A J on 06.13.22 at 7:25 pm

Re-inventing the wheel is a gamble. There’s a reason for our current banking system. It allows people security. Protection. Buying Bitcoin is and always was a form of gambling. Same with NFTs, Pokemon cards, sneakers, other hyped up collectibles promising riches. All gambling and Ponzi schemes with the promise of getting rich quick. And some people did. They got lucky. Now people are paying the price for this gamble. And realizing they aren’t special after all. My biggest fear is the hatred, fear and anger that will come out of this situation. No one will want to take responsibility for their gamble. They’ll be looking for someone to blame (ahem Trudeau) and point the finger at. Whether that person/people deserve it or not.

#98 Faron on 06.13.22 at 7:28 pm

Because facts matter (not defending crypto investment). The Quebec pension invested ~$150M not $400M. The numbers are easily mistaken as it is true that CDPQ was part of a $400M push. True number is 0.04% of CDPQ’s AUM.

Suggest you correct that number in your blog, Garth.

https://ici.radio-canada.ca/recit-numerique/4095/caisse-depot-cryptomonnaie-celsius-quebec

#99 You leave me holding on... on 06.13.22 at 7:29 pm

#15 Millennial 1%er on 06.13.22 at 3:21 pm
Not your keys, not your crypto.

Holding crypto since ~2016. Still up. By a lot.

——

You still holding it?

Those highs weren’t high enough for you to sell?

You’re holding it until it is back to 2016 levels?

#100 Edward Bear on 06.13.22 at 7:29 pm

The eedjit hot dog pension fund managers who risked retiree funds on cryptocurrency should be stood in a corner of their board room to let angry annuitants knee them repeatedly in the gonads. The next day they ought to be reduced to operating a squeegee on a Yonge street intersection along with Pepe.

#101 crowdedelevatorfartz on 06.13.22 at 7:34 pm

@#76 Bob Loblaw
“…416 home prices continue to rise…..”

+++
Another reason to avoid Loblaws.

#102 The West on 06.13.22 at 7:37 pm

#75 T-Rev

I should add that Pepe was going to get my vote about a year ago. But after his recent stunts with crypto and calling to Tiff’s head, I see him for what he is. Won’t be voting PP anymore. Will hold my nose and support Charest.

—————————————–

Why vote at all then?

#103 AK on 06.13.22 at 7:46 pm

#BitCoin.. To this day, I still don’t understand the damn thing. Oh well, I will keep It that way.

One more thing. Why does It trade in U.S. $$??

#104 Neonelements on 06.13.22 at 7:52 pm

#98 The West

Why vote at all then?

—————————
We vote because it gives us the right to b*tch. If you don’t participate then you have should not complain about unwanted results.

#105 Hurtin' Albertan on 06.13.22 at 7:55 pm

You seem to have very little faith in the CPC to elect a reasonable leader who can appeal to a majority of Canadians. I hope you are wrong, but I share your pessimism. PP would be corrosive for the CPC if elected leader and for Canada if he managed to attain the PM’s office.

So much freedumb:

https://www.macleans.ca/longforms/why-is-pierre-poilievre-so-angry/

https://www.macleans.ca/politics/ottawa/pierre-poilievre-on-his-combative-style-of-politics-and-his-plans-for-canada/

#106 wallflower on 06.13.22 at 8:06 pm

ha aha ha ha ha
#85 Earlybird on 06.13.22 at 6:50 pm
Wtf is a pension fund doing investing in crypto??
I hope someone is held accountable…

yep: the pensioners will be accounting for it – every missing penny of it

I think we are witnessing the rise of the class of ‘everybody gets a ribbon’ …
This multi-year class is now in its business decision-making lifestage.
Buckle up: we ain’t seen nothin’ like it

#107 crowdedelevatorfartz on 06.13.22 at 8:10 pm

@#104 Neonelements
“If you don’t participate then you have should not complain about unwanted results.”

+++
Sadly.
If ……
“None of the above”
……was an option……

It would win by a landslide.

Perhaps a Swiss system of governance where almost everything is a referendum OR
A council of appointed volunteer leaders ( no pay, no pension) who are only allowed to serve one… two year term…
Can it be any worse than the lobbyist funded, back room dealing, conniving sh!tshow we currently have?

#108 Bitcoin Bro on 06.13.22 at 8:15 pm

“Hyperinflation is defined by a threshold in the rate of increase in prices of 50% per month by one definition, 1000% per year by another. From: Handbook of Monetary Economics, 2010.” Turkey inflation now: 52%/year. Not even close. Just sayin’. – Garth

Splitting hairs Garth, there are plenty of reputable sources reporting on Turkey as a hyperinflationary economy. The reality on the ground in Turkey via first-hand accounts is much worse than the offical numbers. It’s a terrible economic disaster regardless of the definition used.

And we are not Turkey. – Garth

#109 crowdedelevatorfartz on 06.13.22 at 8:20 pm

@#92 1 Donkey
“Biden is illigitimate. A fraud. An affront to democracy… ”

+++
Well if we’re going to spew delusional conspiracy theories…
You should be very very happy that Trump isn’t President right now or ALL able bodied men in Canada and the US would be on a troop ship to eastern Europe to push Putin’s men back so we could finally find those Trump Tapes the KGB has….

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2021/jan/29/trump-russia-asset-claims-former-kgb-spy-new-book

P.S. You misspelled illegitimate.

#110 DON on 06.13.22 at 8:23 pm

#106 wallflower on 06.13.22 at 8:06 pm
ha aha ha ha ha
#85 Earlybird on 06.13.22 at 6:50 pm
Wtf is a pension fund doing investing in crypto??
I hope someone is held accountable…

yep: the pensioners will be accounting for it – every missing penny of it

I think we are witnessing the rise of the class of ‘everybody gets a ribbon’ …
This multi-year class is now in its business decision-making lifestage.
Buckle up: we ain’t seen nothin’ like it

*************

I was thinking the same thing…the results are emerging from past decisions. Dog help us.

Folks can say want you want about the boomers…but they have a good work ethic in comparison.

#111 Phylis on 06.13.22 at 8:40 pm

Bitcoin = used electricity. A whole lotta work with only a signature to show for it.

#112 Truth or Consequences on 06.13.22 at 8:46 pm

I can’t decide between Pierre and Maxime.

#113 Dragonslayer on 06.13.22 at 8:57 pm

#92 2000 Mules

What voter corruption? Sixty courts found none. – Garth

The courts never heard the cases, all were tossed on technicalities… Can’t find what you’re not looking for!

I suggest anyone who wants to know the truth about the 2020 election watch 2000 Mules. This movie absolutely proves beyond any doubt that the election was stolen through ballot harvesting and ballot box stuffing. All caught on video.

Biden is illigitimate. A fraud. An affront to democracy… Anyone who runs cover for him is complicit in the scam.

(Allowed for comic relief. – Garth)
=================================

Thanks for leaving that post in, Garth.

Can I add one in the same vein? I definitely saw Elvis in the 7-11 today. Positive it was him. I held the door open for him on the way out and sure enough he said….

Wait for it….

“Thank ya very mush. “

#114 I own gold on 06.13.22 at 8:59 pm

“Owning the TSX through an ETF is all the PM exposure most investors should have.”

That’s what I do in my employer’s matched retirement plan (the unhappy marriage of Employee+Employer+Insurance Company). There are not many funds to go around in these plans so I get broad exposure to the TSX in this investment account.

In my self-directed accounts however I prefer direct exposure to gold for several reasons (3 of them below):

I am making a conscious effort to avoid country bias. The TXS position would be too large for my comfort in order to achieve the exposure I’d like to gold miners.

“Basis risks” happens when the correlation between a derivative (in this case gold miners) and an underlying (gold) breaks. There is “basis risk” in using the TSX as a proxy for gold and it can manifest at a time when we need gold to diversify away the most. (notice I use derivative term in the general sense of the word, not as in futures, options, swaps, etc)

I keep my gold exposure in USD dollars. The gold+greenback makes for a good counterbalance when it hits the fan.

#115 Faron on 06.13.22 at 9:07 pm

#103 AK on 06.13.22 at 7:46 pm
#BitCoin.. To this day, I still don’t understand the damn thing. Oh well, I will keep It that way.

One more thing. Why does It trade in U.S. $$??

It actually transacts in USDT. Keep an eye on the peg between USDT and USD. If it slips below 1 too far, that’s all she wrote for the most important stable coin. UST was the peg associated with Luna and the reason that crypto are it. The group that runs USDT refuses to detail what backs its stablecoins and has been caught in shady deals. It will unwind at some point.

#116 The Regulator on 06.13.22 at 9:09 pm

# 84 – Michael in North york : You do realize Ukraine is big, like Texas sized? It’s also in Europe, can you find it on a map? And you advocate for more killing, more weapons, and a longer conflict? Pretty easy to do from an armchair, comrade.

#117 When Will They Raise Rates? on 06.13.22 at 9:10 pm

#85 Earlybird on 06.13.22 at 6:50 pm

Wtf is a pension fund doing investing in crypto??

————

My guess would be that the $400M is a very small % (maybe 1/10 of 1%) of the entire portofio. No big deal.

#118 I own crypto too on 06.13.22 at 9:12 pm

2% of my investment portfolio is invested in crypto. Today I re-balanced and brought its anemic position back to my target.

I have done this for quite a while so I have the scars of 80% crashes and the blessing of seeing power of law returns. It can go to zero, it can go to the moon. This 2% position has been good to me and under no circumstance is going to be the death of me. I am very disciplined in my re-balancing (3 or 4 times a year) and I don’t look at the price of bitcoin very often.

#119 Ponzius Pilatus on 06.13.22 at 9:17 pm

130 the Jaguar on 06.13.22 at 2:51 pm
@127 DonG
Yes. I liked his style.
“Somewhere Europe has to grow out of the mindset that Europe’s problems are the world’s problems but the world’s problems are not Europe’s problems. That if it is you, it’s yours, if it is me it is ours. I see reflections of that,”…. (28:30 in the clip)
What a bulls-eye. Not your garden variety politician. Wish we had someone like him here in Canada.
————————
Can’t agree.
I watched the interview.
Nothing of substance.
Personally, I think any Indian politician should first try to fix India’s internal problems, before casting stones.
Interesting that he focused on the EU.
No mention of the US.
Does not want to bite the hand that feeds him.
Talk is cheap my friends.
Wish we had some like him in Canada?
Your wish has already come true.
PP is at your command.

#120 Ponzius Pilatus on 06.13.22 at 9:25 pm

#8 crowdedelevatorfartz on 06.13.22 at 3:14 pm
The choices for PM in 2024 may be
“Jokers to the left of me, Jokers to the right.
Here I am .
Stuck in the middle with you.”
————————
Here we go again.
The lyrics of the song go like this:
“Clowns to the left of me,
Jokers to the right”
Focus.

#121 Satori on 06.13.22 at 9:27 pm

#3 Chris L. on 06.13.22 at 3:00 pm
Oil didn’t sell off today. You wrote too early. It recovered by noon – and stocks quickly reversed over 50% of it’s early morning losses. Unlike the rest of the stuff, oil runs planet earth and regardless of what happens with debt issues, will continue to run planet earth. Long oil. If the rest of the world’s assets could quickly adjust, we can resume going upward. No bottom in sight so far…as stated, not until we get to the top of rate rises, and stop of inflation. I hold only oil – and Air Canada.
———————–
I’m so happy I cashed out my pension from Air Canada.

Good for you, they are all for the shareholders not the employees. They spin off Aeroplan/Ramp/Checkin to US companies so they can meet shareholder’s needs… then when they are up for new union contracts, AC paints the planes or does major remodelling, so they go in the red. Smart choice!

#122 JR on 06.13.22 at 9:34 pm

#51 Caffeine Monkey, suite yourself.
Come back in 5 years and we’ll see where defi stands. My bet is it’s integrated into society much more than you think I would be.

#123 I don't know on 06.13.22 at 9:36 pm

“So is this the great reset? Or a needed return to earth?

Dunno. But beware dogs bearing Bitcoin. They bite.”

-For Bitcoin, hopefully. It has little value and is symbolic of excess.

The house statistic looks flashy. Will some people be caught with their pants down? Of course. But not the majority. The right play was to lock in low rates, carry debt in fixed payments of quickly devaluing dollars, and then pay off principle upon renewal. Demand was pushed forward in anticipation of rising rates, and will take a while to catch up. This is why there was such a mad dash last November to February.

Stocks? The S and P looks to head down another 5-10%. Do you have devaluing junk (cash) sitting around? Now is a good time to put it to use and not be greedy.

IDK

#124 the Jaguar on 06.13.22 at 9:39 pm

“Pierre Poilievre, by the way, personally owns a crypto ETF called Purpose Bitcoin (now down 65%).”……..

Good gawd. Old ‘shark eyes’ is lookin’ worse than ever if he’s into that hocus pocus. If someone even mentioned Bitcoin to me my eyes would glaze over like icing on a lemon-buttermilk pound cake. Mercy. If you like the idea of coins jingling in your pocket stick with Krugerrands.

Why can’t the Conservative Party of Canada get it together? Is there nobody out there who is fiscally conservative, socially liberal, and not afraid of his/her own shadow or speaking honestly to the vast majority of Canadians who are on their knees praying for some responsible governance and to be rescued?
Maybe throw in a little charisma to entice those who are attracted to the cult of personality.

I suppose the situation is mirrored here in Alberta. The political divide is public sector thinking in Edmonton, private sector thinking in Calgary, and the ‘old guard’ everywhere else.

Brian Jean & Danielle Smith (Wildrose),Travis Toews (Evangelical religous leanings), Rajan Sawhney who just threw her hat in the ring. (haven’t a clue who she is, but saying things like ” she’s an alternative to candidates who are “more of the same” could backfire.) And then there is Rachel N. They love her in Edmonton, but not so much in the south and other parts of this province.

Where is Nenshi these days? If we could just get the temperature moderate enough we might just slip into the tub with some bubbles, a good read like ‘Orderly and Humane’ by R.M. Douglas, and a small glass of Wild Turkey over ice. At least until the rain stops falling…

#125 Satori on 06.13.22 at 9:39 pm

With all the increases, I am sure a ton of landlords will be “re-modelling”… someone I know just said ‘her son will move in so she has the right to evict the current ‘lower priced’ renters… and so, out goes the cheap renters, a little paint and in comes the double priced renters. Which pays all her increases.

Sadly, all this stuff is pushed onto people who can’t afford a mortgage.

Even when I moved the rent for the place went up $750. AND there was a line up… sad times.

#126 Ponzius Pilatus on 06.13.22 at 9:41 pm

#108 Bitcoin Bro on 06.13.22 at 8:15 pm
“Hyperinflation is defined by a threshold in the rate of increase in prices of 50% per month by one definition, 1000% per year by another. From: Handbook of Monetary Economics, 2010.” Turkey inflation now: 52%/year. Not even close. Just sayin’. – Garth

Splitting hairs Garth, there are plenty of reputable sources reporting on Turkey as a hyperinflationary economy. The reality on the ground in Turkey via first-hand accounts is much worse than the offical numbers. It’s a terrible economic disaster regardless of the definition used.

And we are not Turkey. – Garth
———————-
Even Turkey is tired of being called Turkey.
Their Gubernment is mulling a name change.

#127 Stone on 06.13.22 at 9:43 pm

Happy I don’t have crypto and never had interest for it. Happy with my B&D portfolio and the great life it allows me to enjoy. Steady gradually increasing dividends gives me the tax efficient cashflow I need. And all highly liquid and easy to rebalance whenever needed. B&D currently sitting at -9.77% and yet no worries on my mind.

FYI Mattl, my next post is up as promised. You’re welcome to read. Enjoy!

#128 crowdedelevatorfartz on 06.13.22 at 9:45 pm

@#108 Biker Bro
“….reporting on Turkey as a hyperinflationary economy.”

+++

Ugh.
Bro?
Turkey?

Turkey’s “leader” Recep Erdogan ( a highly paranoid, authoritarian, goon, in the Vlad Putin vein of rulers) decided about 5 years ago that the reason the Turkish economy was suffering was due to the EU and the US conspiring against him….

He fired his highly respected Finance Minister and appointed…..his son.

The international markets reacted predictably and the Turkish Lira …….plummeted.

His knee jerk reactions of silencing/jailing/ deporting media/ foreign dignitaries/ foreign investors has had predictable results…..

Turkey is run by a fiscal midget and , increasingly a political and economic , pariah.
Erdogan only has himself to blame….. and since he is an absolute ruler ….no one wants to tell him.
He’s an idiot.

#129 conan on 06.13.22 at 9:45 pm

PP, the mini me Preston Manning, but with a PHD in witch hunting and being a doofus. I want the Cons to choose him.
It is a comedy show with this current batch of Cons.

#130 T-Rev on 06.13.22 at 9:47 pm

#80 J on 06.13.22 at 6:43 pm

Thanks for sharing that article. Sums it up nicely. I’d encourage everyone to read it.

#131 crowdedelevatorfartz on 06.13.22 at 9:48 pm

@#120 Ponzies Popup
“The lyrics of the song go like this:
“Clowns to the left of me,”

+++
Hmmm.
Only the Clown noticed the misprint…
:)

#132 Ponzius Pilatus on 06.13.22 at 9:56 pm

#124 the Jaguar on 06.13.22 at 9:39 pm
“Pierre Poilievre, by the way, personally owns a crypto ETF called Purpose Bitcoin (now down 65%).”……..

Good gawd. Old ‘shark eyes’ is lookin’ worse than ever if he’s into that hocus pocus. If someone even mentioned Bitcoin to me my eyes would glaze over like icing on a lemon-buttermilk pound cake. Mercy. If you like the idea of coins jingling in your pocket stick with Krugerrands.

Why can’t the Conservative Party of Canada get it together? Is there nobody out there who is fiscally conservative, socially liberal, and not afraid of his/her own shadow or speaking honestly to the vast majority of Canadians who are on their knees praying for some responsible governance and to be rescued?
Maybe throw in a little charisma to entice those who are attracted to the cult of personality.

I suppose the situation is mirrored here in Alberta. The political divide is public sector thinking in Edmonton, private sector thinking in Calgary, and the ‘old guard’ everywhere else.

Brian Jean & Danielle Smith (Wildrose),Travis Toews (Evangelical religous leanings), Rajan Sawhney who just threw her hat in the ring. (haven’t a clue who she is, but saying things like ” she’s an alternative to candidates who are “more of the same” could backfire.) And then there is Rachel N. They love her in Edmonton, but not so much in the south and other parts of this province.

Where is Nenshi these days? If we could just get the temperature moderate enough we might just slip into the tub with some bubbles, a good read like ‘Orderly and Humane’ by R.M. Douglas, and a small glass of Wild Turkey over ice. At least until the rain stops falling
—————-
Jag,
You guys should hold a referendum to merge with BC.
Then you would get solid leadership with Hulk Horgan and his merry band on Socialists.
They would make sure your oil money would be put to good use and not pissed away again.

#133 crowdedelevatorfartz on 06.13.22 at 9:56 pm

@#126 Pasha Ponzie
“Even Turkey is tired of being called Turkey.
Their Gubernment is mulling a name change.”

+++
Yes.
Erdogan who has dragged Turkey back into a Muslim theocracy after almost 100 years of non religious rule….
Has decided that veils and a new name for the country is the way to go
Turkiye…..
Hurrah!
At least we can pronounce THAT name .

Unlike most of the first nations names ( Squamish vs Slhx7lsh ?) forced upon the beleaguered Canadian citizens all across unseceded Canada in the Liberal appeasement rebranding.

#134 DON on 06.13.22 at 10:01 pm

#128 crowdedelevatorfartz on 06.13.22 at 9:45 pm
@#108 Biker Bro

Turkey is run by a fiscal midget and , increasingly a political and economic , pariah.
Erdogan only has himself to blame….. and since he is an absolute ruler ….no one wants to tell him.
He’s an idiot.

::::::::::::::)
You mean Mr.Errordoagain

ha ha

#135 Lefty on 06.13.22 at 10:07 pm

Wow, Bitcoin below 21k. Some margins going to get called. Is this the week it all goes kaput?

Not sure I can vote for a guy who supportes truckers and Bitcoin. He probably likes cats too

#136 Shawn on 06.13.22 at 10:07 pm

How Defined Benefit Pensions Work

#106 wallflower on 06.13.22 at 8:06 pm
ha aha ha ha ha
#85 Earlybird on 06.13.22 at 6:50 pm
Wtf is a pension fund doing investing in crypto??
I hope someone is held accountable…

yep: the pensioners will be accounting for it – every missing penny of it

*******************************
It’s been explained that a $400 million loss to this fund is not a huge deal. Makes for good public outage though.

And the current pensioners as such will not be impacted by a dollar or even a penny.

This is a strong pension plan and the pensions will continue to be paid under the defined benefit formula. The pensioners can sit back and pass the popcorn as this little story plays out.

It’s the current employees (future pensioners) and the employers who in theory face a tiny increase in contributions. If there were huge losses the contributions from employees and the government employers would have to rise.

Anyhow this is a complete nothing burger. They put a tiny portion of assets into crypto and it blew up. Other investments will payoff. As someone pointed out they have a pretty god long term track record. YAWN.

#137 Ponzius Pilatus on 06.13.22 at 10:07 pm

128 crowdedelevatorfartz on 06.13.22 at 9:45 pm
@#108 Biker Bro
“….reporting on Turkey as a hyperinflationary economy.”

+++

Ugh.
Bro?
Turkey?

Turkey’s “leader” Recep Erdogan ( a highly paranoid, authoritarian, goon, in the Vlad Putin vein of rulers) decided about 5 years ago that the reason the Turkish economy was suffering was due to the EU and the US conspiring against him….

He fired his highly respected Finance Minister and appointed…..his son.

The international markets reacted predictably and the Turkish Lira …….plummeted.

His knee jerk reactions of silencing/jailing/ deporting media/ foreign dignitaries/ foreign investors has had predictable results…..

Turkey is run by a fiscal midget and , increasingly a political and economic , pariah.
Erdogan only has himself to blame….. and since he is an absolute ruler ….no one wants to tell him.
He’s an idiot.
————————-
It’s you who’s the idiot.
Turkey is a power not to be under estimated .
With one foot in Europe and one foot in the Middle East , is strategically located to influence politics on both sides.
Like Putin in Russia, Erdogan has ambitions to restore Turkey to its former glory.

#138 Victor V on 06.13.22 at 10:22 pm

Magenta Capital Corp., one of Canada’s largest private mortgage lenders, has suspended new loan applications until September, according to an e-mail to its broker clients viewed by The Globe and Mail.

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/business/article-private-mortgage-lender-magenta-suspends-new-loan-applications-until/

#139 Km on 06.13.22 at 10:23 pm

I would love to see some stats on how many realtors own multiple properties, it is pumped hard on social media as the only way to invest, I know of several that have more than five, one owns 15.

#140 Doug in London on 06.13.22 at 10:33 pm

Pierre Poilievre, by the way, personally owns a crypto ETF called Purpose Bitcoin (now down 65%). The same is happening with NFTs, of course. And Bored Ape-branded anything.
————————————————————-
As the saying goes, there’s a sucker born every minute.

#141 Michael in-north-york on 06.13.22 at 10:35 pm

#116 The Regulator on 06.13.22 at 9:09 pm

# 84 – Michael in North york : You do realize Ukraine is big, like Texas sized? It’s also in Europe, can you find it on a map? And you advocate for more killing, more weapons, and a longer conflict? Pretty easy to do from an armchair, comrade.
===

Not at all. Once the Russians stop moving their troops and weapons into Ukraine, the conflict will end.

That was easy, wasn’t that comrade? Enjoy your armchair.

#142 Doug t on 06.13.22 at 10:38 pm

Don’t know about reset but there’s gonna ba alot of regret lol

#143 k on 06.13.22 at 10:57 pm

Hi Garth ! Wow ! I think no.2 pension fund in Canada is Caisse . Wow ! $400 million into The Celsius Network crypto ? . I’m wondering who’s head should roll as a Risk Mgmt Chief ? What a disaster! It seems standard risk management logic has been thrown out with the bath water. Have these “professionals” reverted back to Lets Go to Vegas and have some fun ! With other peoples money.

#144 Linda on 06.13.22 at 11:03 pm

#70 ‘Bit’ – so I’m wondering something. Your post states “I was just pointing out the fallacy in Linda’s argument, which is very common rhetoric among wealthy older folks in my experience.” Can you explain how those ‘wealthy older folks’ became wealthy? Could it possibly be because they took responsibility for their financial actions? Could it possibly be because they did, in fact, have ‘control’ over their money?

#145 morry on 06.13.22 at 11:31 pm

“I’m not a fan of crypto but Pierre has enough other original ideas to appeal to me.”

only a unhinged person can make such a statement with a straight face.

we are doomed if such ignorance gathers momentum.

#146 Steve on 06.13.22 at 11:49 pm

Crypto != Bitcoin

Celsius != Bitcoin

Bitcoin is transparent, open, and decentralized. Everything that crypto is not. There is no second best. The best thing for bitcoin, would be for crypto to die, while bringing down the price of bitcoin, so that regular people still have a chance to accumulate more than a fraction of a coin.

Bonds are dead.

Fed will normalize CPI at 5%, and instigate yield curve control to keep the 10yr at 3.5%.

Bonds = picking up nickels in front of a steamroller.

#147 fishman on 06.13.22 at 11:51 pm

Did a rebalancing on my 6G portfolio this weekend. Added to my God portion. A Blessing of the Fleet at False Creek. A very ancient Catholic tradition. Brought to us by the fellow with the collar on backwards. A verse from Mathew of sailors awakening Jesus from his nap to calm the waters. A prayer for our safety. A sprinkling of Holy Water. I feel much better. Who among us would refuse a blessing? Mind you there were a few leary of too much Holy Water hitting their boat. Might get some smoke damage or start an electrical fire.

#148 Catalyst on 06.13.22 at 11:52 pm

I hope the ‘managers’ at the pension fund get a criminal review as well if true that they dumped $400MM into Celsius. The celsius CEO was a known scammer who led crypto pump and dumps previously and clearly no diligence is done anymore these days by some managers who are controlling people’s life savings.

#149 Tom from Mississauga on 06.14.22 at 12:10 am

So Caisse pulled out of fossil fuels by the end 2021, the only thing up in 2022. It was replaced by crypto lending…that’s worse than subprime lending. These guys need wholesale firing. Dog knows there’s going to be plenty of that around hedge funds, capital markets, venture capital, pension plans, and wealth management companies.

#150 tc-contra on 06.14.22 at 1:05 am

A couple years ago, in a dream, I realized that Bitcoin isn’t a ‘sound’ form of money. Why?
Simple…all other coins make a sound when you drop them on a hard surface.
Bitcoin? No sound at all!
All this in a dream///

Expect a bottom in Stock markets in 2023-4 and real estate in 2025-7.

Gold is gonna shine like in the 70’s.
Expect $2,500-3,000 by end 2023

Bear markets separate the men from the boys (can we even say this these days??)
The ones buying the dip will be disappointed this time. This year 2022 is not going to be anything like 2021. Recency bias can work against you.

#151 Landlord no more on 06.14.22 at 1:22 am

“I should add that Pepe was going to get my vote about a year ago. But after his recent stunts with crypto and calling to Tiff’s head, I see him for what he is. Won’t be voting PP anymore. Will hold my nose and support Charest.”

What I have read about Charest’s leadership, is very impressive. He has my support.

#152 along for the ride on 06.14.22 at 1:24 am

Garth, in all fairness, if you’re going to pick at Pierre’s every pronouncement ( which had no effect on the society or economy) then you should also add as balance a separate column of Trudeau’s bald faced ( and some might add black face) hyperbole , which have in many many many cases caused direct and irreperable change/harm . You keep talking balance, so be balanced.

Meanwhile re BTC etc, I’m delighted to see this fraud collapse. Crypto sucked money out of gullible people like a pyramid scheme and it’s shocking to me how long it was allowed to perpetrate simple fraud. Crypto is not a currency unles it’s backed by currency, which it’s not. How stupid can you be to think otherwise. I like what Charlie Munger said “ Crypto is a general disease in the financial system”…well said Charlie.

As a multigenerational investor, I’m glad to see many of my favorite companies go on sale. Thanks to the panick I’m making bank buying equities that will never be sold. Dividends are unaffected. Ex: no chartered bank suspended its dividend ever, yeah, never ever. So, with thousands to spend on buy more income, being on the Panick Queens of CNBC and BNN. Day to day investing is a rookie mistake.

#153 Caffeine Monkey on 06.14.22 at 7:25 am

#146 Steve on 06.13.22 at 11:49 pm
Bitcoin is transparent, open, and decentralized.
——
Except that in practical terms it isn’t. On the plus side, the centralized nature of Bitcoin (eg. exchanges) makes nice targets for hackers.

Anyway, it doesn’t matter. Why do people ascribe magical properties to decentralization? You know what’s actually decentralized and peer to peer? Freenet. Freenet was supposed to be a censorship-resistant platform where a utopian culture of truth and freedom expression would spontaneously blossom.

You know what’s Freenet mostly used for today? Kiddie porn.

Same thing with crypto. Its only good practical use case is facilitating criminal activity.

#154 Lumber on 06.14.22 at 7:35 am

I wonder how many people have used their HELOC for stock market purchases, and what their interest rate pressure points will be for bailing out of that market? Sure the interest costs may be deductible, but rising rates in a perceived declining market might make some folks very nervous.

#155 Dharma Bum on 06.14.22 at 8:15 am

Chill out.

All of the worldly possessions that you cling to so feverishly and desperately will eventually disappear.

As will you.

Nothing is permanent.

Reality is an illusion.

Enjoy the coming recession. It too, will be temporary.

Boomers will recognize it and weather the storm. Been there, done that.

The young’uns – those who have never experienced the carnage and destruction and havoc wreaked by a recession, will be traumatized.

Then, they might finally grow up.

Wisdom comes with a price.

No safe spaces.

#156 Dave on 06.14.22 at 8:31 am

This homeowner listed for 1.5 million. Now it is down to 1 million
Listing W5656914

#157 crowdedelevatorfartz on 06.14.22 at 8:39 am

@#137 Ponzies Pathetic Pariah Pals
“Like Putin in Russia, Erdogan has ambitions to restore Turkey to its former glory.”

+++
Former glory?
Is that before or after 1,000,000 Armenians were starved to death under Ataturk ?
Or 10,000,0000 Ukrainians under Stalin’s rule?
What part of THAT history was “glorious”?
Just curious.
Do you accept your Kompromat cheques in Russian Rubles or Turkish Lira?

#158 JP on 06.14.22 at 8:44 am

https://www.cbc.ca/news/business/homeowners-interest-rate-survey-1.6487137

One in 4 homeowners are saying they’ll have to sell if interest rates rise? That seems very bad for the Canadian economy if true.

#159 Bitcoin Bro on 06.14.22 at 9:15 am

“Can you explain how those ‘wealthy older folks’ became wealthy? Could it possibly be because they took responsibility for their financial actions? Could it possibly be because they did, in fact, have ‘control’ over their money”

Absolutely, Linda. I’m not about absolving people of their personal responsibility.

But the fact of the matter is, macro trends and central bank policy has absolutely squeezed many hard-working, fiscally responsible Canadians who are trying to save, invest, and build wealth for the future.

Runaway cost of living has outpaced earnings. A low six-figure income is barely enough to provide family in the suburbs these days, forget about the bigger cities.

Why is that? There’s a number of factors of course but 15 years of historically easy money, easy credit policy from our Central Bank is the biggest. It’s juiced all asset prices, real estate in particular as our mate Garth yaks about all the time.

This is all to say – I’d encourage you to consider being a bit more empathetic. You may think it’s as simple as taking personal responsibility of one’s wealth but for many Canadians out there it’s not so simple.

#160 Squire on 06.14.22 at 9:19 am

https://www.cbc.ca/news/business/homeowners-interest-rate-survey-1.6487137

One in 4 homeowners are saying they’ll have to sell if interest rates rise? That seems very bad for the Canadian economy if true.
——————-
Social conditioning… getting people mentally prepared for the tough times ahead.

#161 crowdedelevatorfartz on 06.14.22 at 9:35 am

@#158 JP
“That seems very bad for the Canadian economy if true.”
++
Its only bad for the greaterfools.
The other people waiting in the wings for the housing ponzie insanity to end are quite happy about it.

“Ponzie” and “insanity” in the same sentence…..how apropos.

#162 Tales from the Crypto on 06.14.22 at 9:39 am

This Celcius scam reminds me of Mt. Gox few years back.

For those of you who don’t know, this was one heck of a pull.

You can read a bit about it here:
https://arstechnica.com/tech-policy/2017/11/ceo-who-presided-over-mt-goxs-collapse-could-end-up-with-massive-profits/

Basically…some coins were “lost”. They needed to address their liquidity as a result of this. Quick bankruptcy was how it was addressed…in Japan. Creditors paid out what their assets were worth on day bankruptcy was declared (as per Japanese law), but it took a few years for this bankruptcy to work through Japanese court system. By then those crypto coin assets frozen by courts were worth $1.3B more than was owed to creditors based on date of bankruptcy asset value. CEO was awarded this remaining $1.3B. Poof! He gone like a fart in the wind.

BEST. SCAM. EVER!

Respect.

Wonder who’s enjoying the $400m of the pension fund’s money…because while crypto is a verifiable nothing, that $400m was quite real.

#163 Quintilian on 06.14.22 at 9:41 am

#132 Ponzius Pilatus on 06.13.22 at 9:56 pm
Why can’t the Conservative Party of Canada get it together?

Because they have nothing to put together but silly slogans: and when decent and reasonable Canadians reject them, they think it’s because of their leader(s) and not the real reason.

For Conservatives to gain power, the people would have to descend into ignorance and moral degradation would have take place as in the USA.

#164 Linda on 06.14.22 at 10:32 am

#159 ‘Bit’ – I never said taking responsibility was simple. All through history, people’s lives have been impacted by events beyond their control. Depending on circumstances, anyone can see their finances go from robust to wrecked, no matter how carefully they planned.

The current angst about finances for many Canadians can be for the most part explained by two factors. First, taking on far more debt than income could support; second, a sharp increase in the cost of living due to a myriad of factors, some of which (Covid; Putin invading Ukraine) were beyond government or CB control. Younger Canadians have the luxury of time to recover from any fiscal impacts; time to rebuild. Not easy, not at all fun, but possible. Older Canadians may have to make some very difficult choices. Despite belief to the contrary, a rather large segment of seniors are not rich. With an average income of roughly $45K per annum inflation in particular can change their lives from comfortable to not in very short order. Oh, but they own a house so must be rich? Maybe, maybe not. Perhaps they still have a mortgage, or took out a reverse mortgage to provide sufficient income to live on. If they do sell, where do they go? Can they find alternate shelter in the same neighborhood, or do they have to move? How far away? Will they still have easy access to their current support systems – health care providers, family & friends? Will the $ from the sale of their home be sufficient to provide for them for the remainder of their lives?

As to empathy – ‘Judge not, lest you yourself be judged’.

#165 The Regulator on 06.14.22 at 10:35 am

# 132 – Fonzius : We never “pissed anything away”. Those billions in equalization payments ensured Alberta stayed equally poor with the rest of Canaduh. And why would Alberta merge with a province of haters of and ex-Alberta traitors anyways? Alberta is also the most urbanized and tolerant province. After all, we tolerate the rest of you.

#166 TurnerNation on 06.14.22 at 10:35 am

LOL? Hit the wire just now.

“Toronto-Dominion Bank’s TD Bank Group has launched TD payment plans, a new credit card feature available to eligible TD cardholders with EasyWeb on-line banking access.

With TD payment plans, eligible TD cardholders can enroll qualifying purchases of $100 or more into equalized monthly payments, with six-, 12- or 18-month term options.
….

TD payment plans can support cash flow management by enabling a fixed payment schedule to pay for eligible credit card purchases for a fee or a lower interest rate. Additionally, cardholders can continue to enjoy their existing credit card benefits for their purchases, such as applicable rewards and insurances, and can pay off a plan at any time without penalties regardless of the length of the term they have chosen.”

#167 crowdedelevatorfartz on 06.14.22 at 10:40 am

@#163 Quinty’s Questionable Quotes
“Because they have nothing to put together but silly slogans: ”

+++
Ahh yes.
That intellectual mountain of a Prime Minister
has rendered us speechless numerous times with his zippy, breathless, stammering slogans.”

2015 “Real Change Now” ( we got change alright, Canada is more divided, more polarized, more indebted, more angry, worse actually….)

2019 “Choose Forward” ( which apparently didn’t mean a balanced budget….. only the debt).

2021 “Forward. For Everyone” ( just don’t look back at the debt, the housing costs, the Truckers Strike, the WE Scandal, The SNC Lavalin deal, the Julie Payette replacement, on and on and on)

Yep the Libs can sure hold their heads high.

…….and then there were Trudeau’s monumental, personal truisms……

“The fact is, I’m opposed to coalitions”.

“At one point, people are going to have to realize that maybe I know what I’m doing”

” There was a perception that I grew up with a silver spoon in my mouth.”

Apparently, arrogance and stubbornness aren’t an exclusive Conservative Leadership trait…

#168 Sarah on 06.14.22 at 10:49 am

I just locked in a pre-approved 4.44% 5 year fixed rate with TD for the next 120 days. I live in Northern Ontario but we’ve seen ~40-50% increase in home prices in the past year. Prices have yet to “fall”, but conditional offer and houses sitting on the market for more than 3 days has become much more normal. What are the odds I’ll see a buyers market in the next 4 months?

#169 Observer on 06.14.22 at 10:54 am

#158 JP on 06.14.22 at 8:44 am
https://www.cbc.ca/news/business/homeowners-interest-rate-survey-1.6487137

One in 4 homeowners are saying they’ll have to sell if interest rates rise? That seems very bad for the Canadian economy if true.

^^^^^^^^^^^^^
People with mortgages will “say” things to discourage the raising of interest rates. Doesn’t mean they will stop paying their mortgages as interest rates rise.

#170 Sail Away on 06.14.22 at 11:14 am

#163 Quintilian on 06.14.22 at 9:41 am

For Conservatives to gain power, the people would have to descend into ignorance and moral degradation would have take place as in the USA.

——–

Well, it is indeed a true fact that of the 20 deadliest US cities, 19 of their mayors have the same political leaning.

Spoiler alert: The outlier is Tulsa, Oklahoma. They have a Republican mayor.

https://worldpopulationreview.com/us-city-rankings/cities-with-most-murders

How is that even remotely relevant to Canada? – Garth

#171 Faron on 06.14.22 at 11:22 am

#157 crowdedelevatorfartz on 06.14.22 at 8:39 am

@#137 Ponzies Pathetic Pariah Pals
“Like Putin in Russia, Erdogan has ambitions to restore Turkey to its former glory.”

+++
Former glory?

Easy tiger. Pretty sure Ponz’s schnitzel was firmly in cheekzel there.

#172 Ponzius Pilatus on 06.14.22 at 11:25 am

#157 crowdedelevatorfartz on 06.14.22 at 8:39 am
@#137 Ponzies Pathetic Pariah Pals
“Like Putin in Russia, Erdogan has ambitions to restore Turkey to its former glory.”

+++
Former glory?
Is that before or after 1,000,000 Armenians were starved to death under Ataturk ?
Or 10,000,0000 Ukrainians under Stalin’s rule?
What part of THAT history was “glorious”?
Just curious.
Do you accept your Kompromat cheques in Russian Rubles or Turkish Lira?
———————-
Just a neutral observer, and a good student of History.
You forgot the Kurds and Cypress.
The Greek are weak and so is the Western Leadership.
Where is Merkel?
He may just go for it.
He’s kinda like a Mini Putin.

#173 Faron on 06.14.22 at 11:30 am

#170 Sail Away on 06.14.22 at 11:14 am

Spoiler alert: The outlier is Tulsa, Oklahoma. They have a Republican mayor.

https://worldpopulationreview.com/us-city-rankings/cities-with-most-murders

How is that even remotely relevant to Canada? – Garth

Wow. Spoiler alert, most cities vote democratic.

And, yes, we all know that the mayor is also the chief of murder. Does Tucker Carlson send you a list of talking points in the morning, or do you pick them up from his show each night?

Also from your link:

The United States is the 128th safest country in the world according to the Global Peace Index. The US’s safety rank has decreased each year since 2016.

Gee, I wonder what happened in 2016? Maybe a president who openly condoned and promoted violence was elected? One who went on to attempt a coup?

Also, I wonder why the US is so unsafe? Maybe has to do with the insane proliferation of guns and lax gun laws?

#174 Ponzius Pilatus on 06.14.22 at 11:36 am

169 Observer on 06.14.22 at 10:54 am
#158 JP on 06.14.22 at 8:44 am
https://www.cbc.ca/news/business/homeowners-interest-rate-survey-1.6487137

One in 4 homeowners are saying they’ll have to sell if interest rates rise? That seems very bad for the Canadian economy if true.

^^^^^^^^^^^^^
People with mortgages will “say” things to discourage the raising of interest rates. Doesn’t mean they will stop paying their mortgages as interest rates rise.
—————————-
History has shown that Banks don’t want to be stuck with foreclosed properties.
Too much hassles.
So, they are pretty lenient and accommodating in times like these.
But don’t push it too much.
And always keep your lender in the loop.
They don’t like surprises.

#175 Steve on 06.14.22 at 11:39 am

#153 Caffeine Monkey

#146 Steve on 06.13.22 at 11:49 pm
Bitcoin is transparent, open, and decentralized.
——
Except that in practical terms it isn’t. On the plus side, the centralized nature of Bitcoin (eg. exchanges) makes nice targets for hackers.

Anyway, it doesn’t matter. Why do people ascribe magical properties to decentralization? You know what’s actually decentralized and peer to peer? Freenet. Freenet was supposed to be a censorship-resistant platform where a utopian culture of truth and freedom expression would spontaneously blossom.

You know what’s Freenet mostly used for today? Kiddie porn.

Same thing with crypto. Its only good practical use case is facilitating criminal activity.

+++++
Not your keys, not your coins. Don’t keep your bitcoin on exchanges.

The bitcoin network is the most secure network in the world.

Once again crypto != bitcoin

Decentralization reduces counterparty risk. It also stops one person, one board, or one group from manipulating the supply. Once again crypto != bitcoin.

Practical use case: I guess you have never had to transfer funds to relatives that are living under authoritarian regimes. I have.

Have you ever lived in a country that restricted you from moving capital out of their banks, or out of their country? I guess not, as you are most likely a Canadian. My family has. My dad has had it happen to him three times in his lifetime.

It’s fine. Canadians haven’t had to endure the problems many other countries face every hour, of every day, of every year. Yet.

There are resources that are available, so that you may gain insight into bitcoins value, or you can continue to reiterate the same narratives that were brought up over the last twelve years.

I suspect you will continue to do the latter.

Steve

#176 Ponzius Pilatus on 06.14.22 at 12:01 pm

#175 Steevo
Decentralization reduces counterparty risk. It also stops one person, one board, or one group from manipulating the supply. Once again crypto != bitcoin.
———————
I’m no expert here.
But is this not why the evil money launderers love Bitcoin ?

#177 Sail Away on 06.14.22 at 12:11 pm

#175 Steve on 06.14.22 at 11:39 am

Re: Bitcoin

Have you ever lived in a country that restricted you from moving capital out of their banks, or out of their country?

My family has. My dad has had it happen to him three times in his lifetime.

———

Yep, likewise in our family. When a country seizes assets, those assets are gone forever without recourse.

That’s a lesson that lasts.

We haven’t gone the bitcoin route, but do collect passports and diversify across countries.

#178 Quintilian on 06.14.22 at 12:12 pm

Crowdie, Sail,
The trajectory of the path is set.

Canadians are on en route to a “fair and just society”.
The only way back is the unlikelihood of some anthropological regression whereby we start walking on all fours again, and the slight bulge becomes a tailbone.

Resistance if futile.

Join the angels.

#179 Dr V on 06.14.22 at 12:13 pm

173 Faron

“Also, I wonder why the US is so unsafe? Maybe has to do with the insane proliferation of guns and lax gun laws?”
——————————————————–

Hmmm.

None of these dangerous cities is located in the NW quadrant of the country.

Only two of the cities is located in the SW. Four are in the SE.

So 14 are in the general NE of the country.

Maybe it’s the water?

#180 Pbrasseur on 06.14.22 at 1:02 pm

Canadian household debt ratio now at 180%, comfortably and still growing.

Problem is, jobs can disappear, debt stays…

That is even if credit slows that ratio can still explode!

#181 Froggy on 06.14.22 at 1:12 pm

#30 your spot on I’ll wait until interest rate start to come down and offer anyone selling 10% off there price and 6 month closings by them rates will come down even more thanks

#182 Brett in Calgary on 06.14.22 at 1:31 pm

#124 the Jaguar on 06.13.22 at 9:39 pm

Why can’t the Conservative Party of Canada get it together? Is there nobody out there who is fiscally conservative, socially liberal, and not afraid of his/her own shadow or speaking honestly to the vast majority of Canadians who are on their knees praying for some responsible governance and to be rescued?
———————————————————–
There is definitely a void of good leadership in Canada, but at the same time Canadians in general, don’t like to suffer responsibility/accountability.

Good leadership – like the GST example Garth has shared in the past – is an example of traditional leadership. It wasn’t popular at the time, but it was needed and so it was done.

In other words, good leadership goes hand-in-hand with responsibility/accountability and where do we see that in Canada today? In government? In private enterprise? In academia?

I think we are a nation of wimps that get the leadership they deserve (i.e. none). Governments are merely a reflection of its people.

#183 Steve on 06.14.22 at 1:32 pm

176 Ponzius Pilatus

#175 Steevo
Decentralization reduces counterparty risk. It also stops one person, one board, or one group from manipulating the supply. Once again crypto != bitcoin.
———————
I’m no expert here.
But is this not why the evil money launderers love Bitcoin ?
++++++++

Bitcoin is a horrible place to launder money. That’s why it’s hardly ever done, compared to the money laundering done with cash. Cash is the best tool for nefarious activity.

Bitcoin is an open ledger. Every transaction is open, viewable, and verifiable.

Your wallet is pseudonymous, but not private.

Steve

#184 Dr V on 06.14.22 at 1:37 pm

Further to that list of dangerous cities

Chicago, Philly and Atlanta are the largest metros.

Newark and Oakland form part of large metros

No cities in Texas or Florida make the list.

Many of the cities are rust-belt, and have been in economic decline for decades, though I’ve seen both Baltimore and Pittsburgh promoted recently.

Not as sure about Tulsa, Memphis, St Lou or KC.

#185 Chimingin on 06.14.22 at 1:41 pm

I followed PePe for two years to get a handle on him. Liked what I saw in holding the govt to account. Now, his ego seems to have triumphed over sensible policy development. It’s pointless, but I’m supporting Aitchison. Seems, you know, normal.

#186 The West on 06.14.22 at 1:42 pm

#104 Neonelements on 06.13.22 at 7:52 pm

#98 The West

Why vote at all then?

—————————
We vote because it gives us the right to b*tch. If you don’t participate then you have should not complain about unwanted results.

——————————-

“Voting serves as a processed pressure release, wherein social order is maintained through the presentation of options. Policy can be gauged and polled as to popularity versus results. The straw-man standing in front of the civil service is there to absorb consequences. If nothing else, the population can vote the rascal out.”

Carroll Quigley

#187 Faron on 06.14.22 at 2:00 pm

#184 Dr V on 06.14.22 at 1:37 pm

I think the point is that Sail Away’s attempt to blame the murder rate on the party membership of the mayors is highly intellectually dishonest. To make that claim one has to show causality, not just note a correlation.

Furthermore, guns are easily transported across state lines making gun control legislation at the state level much less successful. This is why national level laws are needed in the US.

Here’s a great podcast on the success of California gun laws over the years. The salient point is that the laws will never have instant impact, but over time and with improvements to legislation, the laws have a measurable effect.

#188 Faron on 06.14.22 at 2:09 pm

#183 Steve on 06.14.22 at 1:32 pm

Bitcoin is an open ledger. Every transaction is open, viewable, and verifiable.

Your wallet is pseudonymous, but not private.

Which makes it subject to seizure or freezing. Seems US agencies have been able to do whatever they need to regarding asset seizure WRT Bitcoin.

Then you have national firewalls.

There are also idiotic leaders at the national level, El Salvador for example, who are aiming to make it semi-official. Seems that will make it likely that it will be more tightly controlled at that level.

Finally, the worth of a bitcoin (that is infinitely divisible) doesn’t matter a lick for remittance. What matters is the stability of the exchange rate. That stability is terrible and makes it possible that, depending on how quickly the transactions occur, the real money transmitted will be far lower (or higher in some cases). Money is not a place where you want realized volatility as large as Bitcoin’s.

Sorry, none of this adds up to bitcoin having any kind of market cap.

#189 Ponzius Pilatus on 06.14.22 at 2:10 pm

#183 Steve

Bitcoin is a horrible place to launder money. That’s why it’s hardly ever done, compared to the money laundering done with cash. Cash is the best tool for nefarious activity.

—————————
As I said, I’m no expert, so I take your word for it.
So, if my dealer wants me to do pay in Bitcoin, I’ll find another one who accepts cash.
As they say, cash is king.

#190 Steve on 06.14.22 at 2:36 pm

#188 Faron

Bitcoin is an open ledger. Every transaction is open, viewable, and verifiable.

Your wallet is pseudonymous, but not private.

Which makes it subject to seizure or freezing. Seems US agencies have been able to do whatever they need to regarding asset seizure WRT Bitcoin.

Then you have national firewalls.

There are also idiotic leaders at the national level, El Salvador for example, who are aiming to make it semi-official. Seems that will make it likely that it will be more tightly controlled at that level.

Finally, the worth of a bitcoin (that is infinitely divisible) doesn’t matter a lick for remittance. What matters is the stability of the exchange rate. That stability is terrible and makes it possible that, depending on how quickly the transactions occur, the real money transmitted will be far lower (or higher in some cases). Money is not a place where you want realized volatility as large as Bitcoin’s.

Sorry, none of this adds up to bitcoin having any kind of market cap.

++++

National firewalls? Easy to seize? Once again, you are misinformed.

When you store bitcoin in cold storage, you aren’t actually storing any “bitcoin”. You have a 12 or 24 word seed phrase that gives you access to your bitcoin on the bitcoin network. Your “bitcoin” is stored on the most secure computer network that has ever been created, and you can only access your “bitcoin” with your seed phrase.

How can someone seize twelve words that are in my head?

Oh, you want my wallet. Sorry I lost it at the lake boating with my friends.

Making it legal tender, does not make it anymore easy to seize. Why would a country make it legal tender, and then ban it, or seize it?

Infinitely divisible. There are only ever going to be 21 million. It doesn’t matter how many times you divide it, it doesn’t change its value. #mathishard.

Yesterday, I sent my relative 5000$, over the lightning network, and it cost me 0.000015%. It settled in 1 minute and 45 seconds.

Meanwhile the local currency in said country is depreciating at a rate of 70% per annum.

If you want some resources, so you can look into this further, I would be glad to provide some sites and books to start.

Steve

#191 steve on 06.14.22 at 2:44 pm

#183 Steve

Bitcoin is a horrible place to launder money. That’s why it’s hardly ever done, compared to the money laundering done with cash. Cash is the best tool for nefarious activity.

—————————
As I said, I’m no expert, so I take your word for it.
So, if my dealer wants me to do pay in Bitcoin, I’ll find another one who accepts cash.
As they say, cash is king.
_____________

Hahaha. Yes, in that use case it is!
However, if you want to hold the hardest asset that humans have ever been able to create. Bitcoin.

Remember, we have used sea shells, otter skins, cows, etc. for money. Lower your time preference, zoom out, and look how it has performed against every other asset class over the past decade.

Also, follow the money and follow the talent. Sovereign wealth funds, pensions, private wealth funds, and countries are allocating a certain percentage to bitcoin. Ignore the #hitcoins.

The top engineers, developers, and programmers are working building out layer 2 and layer 3 solutions that use the btc network as a base layer. All the talent that was cyphoned off for these #hitcoins and crypto, will all come back too.

Unfortunately many people will get wrecked and lose a lot of money because they thought they could stake their coins and earn a 20% risk free on this #hitcoin networks.

That’s why there is a mantra in the community – Do your own research.

Steve

#192 Faron on 06.14.22 at 2:55 pm

#190 Steve on 06.14.22 at 2:36 pm

National firewalls? Easy to seize? Once again, you are misinformed.

—-

https://www.justice.gov/opa/pr/two-arrested-alleged-conspiracy-launder-45-billion-stolen-cryptocurrency

google is hard. I’ll take the ease of debunking that as a sign that you are clueless about the rest. Sry.

#193 Faron on 06.14.22 at 2:58 pm

#190 Steve on 06.14.22 at 2:36 pm

Why would a country make it legal tender, and then ban it, or seize it?

OMG, you have gone full circle and negated your own argument. LOL.

#194 Faron on 06.14.22 at 3:08 pm

Infinitely divisible. There are only ever going to be 21 million. It doesn’t matter how many times you divide it, it doesn’t change its value. #mathishard.

It is hard for you. If I choose to send $39754 dollars over the lightning network when bitcoin is $80,000, how is that any different than the same transaction when bitcoin is $22000?

How much bitcoin is worth doesn’t matter at all in this case, it’s an infinitely divisible placeholder. Arguing that you can transact through it doesn’t make it valuable as an entity.

#195 Steven on 06.14.22 at 3:13 pm

Faro,

I often doubt myself and worry about being too late to bitcoin. However, I enjoy these discussions because it makes me realize that I’m still really early.

Thank you.

Steve

#196 yvr_lurker on 06.14.22 at 7:05 pm

Crazy times indeed. For those who “invested” in Bitcoin (most likely millenials) they have been crushed. However, also for those millenials who are starting out and conservatively put 50K in VGRO their net return since January 1, 2020 is now a good deal less a GIC:

on Jan. 1st 2020, it was worth 26.90 and now over 2.5 years later it is now worth 27.57. A “whopping” increase over 2.5 years (sarcastic).

Of the all purpose ETFs that people first starting out might generally use, this one above is the “best” outcome over the past 2 years. It is a worse outcome (but similar) for ZBAL, and VBAL.

I am failing to see the logic how we are not soon be entering into a recessionary period: housing down, mortgages way up if you need to renew, inflation raging, and “safe” investments paying a good deal less that a GIC since January 2020, and wages not keeping up (likely lots of tense wage negotiations for unions). Maybe someone can explain to me which group of people are going to be keep consumer spending from tanking in the next 6 months, triggering a recession? Don’t see how it can be avoided.

#197 VladTor on 06.14.22 at 8:17 pm

Garth,

….By the way, speaking of Russia, it may win the war in Ukraine but will likely default on its bonds and enter a long and dark, lengthy recession, hobbled by sanctions and the cost of a conflict which rendered it a global pariah. A pyrrhic victory indeed….

************

It will never happened. Russia will not be in recession! Surprised!

Russia not a global pariah!!! Only North America (USA and Canada by the way – not Mexico) and all European countries (except Serbia) + couple others around the world provided sanctions against Russia. Other world with population more than 2 billions did nothing and total they economy bigger than countries I mention before .

#198 DON on 06.15.22 at 12:41 am

#165 The Regulator on 06.14.22 at 10:35 am
# 132 – Fonzius : We never “pissed anything away”. Those billions in equalization payments ensured Alberta stayed equally poor with the rest of Canaduh. And why would Alberta merge with a province of haters of and ex-Alberta traitors anyways? Alberta is also the most urbanized and tolerant province. After all, we tolerate the rest of you.

*********
Did that make you feel better?

#199 DON on 06.15.22 at 1:01 am

#196 yvr_lurker on 06.14.22 at 7:05 pm
Crazy times indeed. For those who “invested” in Bitcoin (most likely millenials) they have been crushed. However, also for those millenials who are starting out and conservatively put 50K in VGRO their net return since January 1, 2020 is now a good deal less a GIC:

on Jan. 1st 2020, it was worth 26.90 and now over 2.5 years later it is now worth 27.57. A “whopping” increase over 2.5 years (sarcastic).

Of the all purpose ETFs that people first starting out might generally use, this one above is the “best” outcome over the past 2 years. It is a worse outcome (but similar) for ZBAL, and VBAL.

I am failing to see the logic how we are not soon be entering into a recessionary period: housing down, mortgages way up if you need to renew, inflation raging, and “safe” investments paying a good deal less that a GIC since January 2020, and wages not keeping up (likely lots of tense wage negotiations for unions). Maybe someone can explain to me which group of people are going to be keep consumer spending from tanking in the next 6 months, triggering a recession? Don’t see how it can be avoided.

********

From what I read, given all the factors most expect a recession but timing is the question. For now people have jobs and are still spending due to Covid freedom burning through their Covid cash. There is a need to raise interest rates to combat inflation or face an even bigger quagmire. At the moment jobs are plentiful so folks can work more to pay the bills or borrow more.

The spike in credit card use is concerning. Japan and MMT are taking a beating lately – Boomerang?