Hot

It continues. The latest US inflation number is dismal. It’s been 40 years since prices were rising this fast (8.6%) and back then we didn’t have huge debts, a global pandemic, Putin, Proud Boys, MMT or Abba rising from the dead. So, the stock market laid another egg on Friday as investors braced for what the Fed will do next week.

In Canada, the good news (lots more jobs) was seen as bad news (higher wages, more inflation), and pretty much cements an epic rate hike next month. Said TD economists upon hearing the news: “With more people employed and wage growth climbing, the strength in domestic demand will be sufficient to keep inflation as a thorn in the side of the Bank of Canada. Just yesterday, Governor Macklem stated his openness to speeding up the rate hike cycle given the overheating economy. Today’s jobs report will only continue to fuel speculation of even higher interest rates.”

Econs at BMO agreed: “There’s nothing here to change the story for the Bank of Canada as the firm headline increase, record-low jobless rate, and rising wages will give the policymakers more confidence that the economy can withstand continued aggressive rate hikes.”

The financial press has a cow as inflation pops

Source: Bloomberg

Aggressive rate hikes. Bond yields jumping. CBs reacting to economies running too hot. As bonds pay more, money is attracted out of stocks. A sustained tightening by central banks in Canada, the US, Europe and elsewhere increases the risk of a recession – hopefully mild. The war makes things more complicated. So does the busted supply chain. And Shanghai today went back into Covid lockdown. Everything but locusts. At least the Canadian Justin Bieber concerts were cancelled this week. How much can a civilized people take?

In Toronto our blog dog deep-throater, Ron the realtor, sends this report from the regular office sales gathering:

Today’s meeting was an exercise in Dr Kubler-Ross’s stages of grief. The old timers went straight to Acceptance, they knew that this was coming a year ago. The youngsters were still in Denial. Others were somewhere in between. This is now officially serious. Time to dust off the 1989 playbook.

Tiff’s sudden resolve suggests to me that inflation is running white hot, and half measures will not do. I still think the Bank over stimulated for too long, but your global perspective is undeniable, and as you wrote this was bound to happen regardless of what the B of C  did.

Speaking of 1989, that’s when the housing market swooned after a period of crazy speculation and outsized price gains met an unexpected tightening cycle by the central bank. Sound familiar?

It’s worth knowing what happened. Valuations peaked in ’89 as sales levels started to crumble. The bottom did not come until four years later – 1993. The decline in average prices was about 30%. It then took another nine years (until 2002) for prices to be restored – not counting the cost of living. So, any family buying in the late 80s would need to wait 13 years to break even on paper, while still taking a loss after inflation, closing costs and commission.

Could this pattern repeat?

Of course. That’s the killer thing about real estate markets. They roll on interest rates and consumer confidence since houses don’t pay interest or dividends, turn illiquid in lousy markets and rely on expensive and risky leverage to acquire. It is very protracted. Financial markets move faster, fall quicker, rebound more aggressively while throwing off income to investors who normally borrow nothing to buy stocks, bonds or ETFs.

As of today, houses in the burbs and Bunnypatch where gains were outsized during Covid have fallen by 30% in three months. Mortgages are nearing 5% and will be 6% later in the year, so this process has just started. History tells us the recovery period will likely be long. Meanwhile stock markets have shed 18% in the US from January’s high, and 8% on Bay Street after cresting in April. A balanced portfolio is off about 7%, after an advance of 36% in the last three years.

What to do?

Well, the interest rate increases looming now will be substantial. Each CB hike will be at least 50 bips and this pattern will continue into the autumn. House prices will continue to descend and sales volumes fall. Sellers will need to reduce their ask in order to attract buyers, who will be able to move cautiously with conditional offers. The areas that inflated the most will deflate in a mirror pattern. Buyers who wait a while will be rewarded. The opposite for sellers.

As for people with financial assets, chill.

Do not sell into a storm. Don’t be emotional and turn paper losses into real ones. Especially in a registered account where losses are not deductible from gains. Be guided by history, since equity markets invariably bottom before an economy turns negative then advance in anticipation of recovery. The average correction in modern times is 15%, and lasts 133 days. A far cry from the protracted mess homeowners have to wade through.

So, accept reality or deny it. But nonetheless, you will live through it. And survive.

 

158 comments ↓

#1 Bonobo on 06.10.22 at 11:44 am

Vote Trump back.

Oh yeah, impeach Biden for incompetence as well.

#2 CanadianOne on 06.10.22 at 11:44 am

Good Morning Garth

The Maple unraveling is upon us. Also, Love your tireless efforts to pen this content, day after day!

Happy Weekend

#3 Søren Angst on 06.10.22 at 11:50 am

Everything but locusts. – Garth

https://tekdeeps.com/a-plague-of-locusts-devastates-crops-in-extremadura-everything-is-devastated/

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/paul-allen-institute-helps-south-040000885.html

Portugal. South Africa. Where next?

Esterhazy? Lunenburg? Abbotsford? Yellowknife?

————–

And I looked, and behold a pale horse: and his name that sat on him was Death, and Hell followed with him.

#4 Caffeine Monkey on 06.10.22 at 11:53 am

The possibility of the next rate hike being 0.75% just went up dramatically. Canadians are absolutely going to lose their minds if that happens. And their shirts.

#5 Kurt on 06.10.22 at 11:58 am

B & D! B & D! B & D!

#6 KNOW IT ALL on 06.10.22 at 12:01 pm

The heat under Powell’s a** rises appreciably.

Real wages WAY negative.

Inflation hit fresh 40-year high in May to 8.6%. It rose 1% from April, topping all estimates.

Core CPI, which DOESN’T include food & energy rose 0.6% from prior month & 6% from a year ago, also above forecasts.

Undisciplined monetary and fiscal policy doesn’t work!!

#7 Søren Angst on 06.10.22 at 12:06 pm

Yup. US Inflation the headline grabber today.

A casualty of that news was StatCan’s Survey yesterday:

“Rising prices are affecting the ability to meet day-to-day expenses for most Canadians”

https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/daily-quotidien/220609/dq220609a-eng.htm?HPA=1

Actually, it’s the Young getting hammered. Some highlights that got to me:

1. …more than one-quarter of Canadians (27%) reported that they have had to borrow money from friends or relatives, take on additional debt or use credit to meet day-to-day expenses in the six months preceding the survey. Yet again, Bank of Ma & Pa.

2. About 24% of Canadians said they have had to draw on their savings in order to pay their expenses. Another 29% said they were saving less, and 19% reported they are no longer able to save each month.

3. Younger Canadians aged 15 to 29 (53%) and 30 to 39 (39%) were more than twice as likely as those 40 and above (20%) to report being very concerned about their ability to afford housing or rent.

4. Several groups were more likely to report borrowing money: those in the bottom two household income quintiles; younger individuals (aged 15 to 39); households with at least one child aged 17 or younger; persons with a disability; and individuals belonging to racialized groups.

——————-

2 rate hikes.

6.8% inflation in April.

Imagine 8.6% inflation + a few more rate hikes. This will not end well.

Locusts.

#8 the Jaguar on 06.10.22 at 12:09 pm

“The Bank of Canada warned that threats to the financial system have grown more complicated in recent months as the country grapples with tightening monetary policy, rampant global inflation and geopolitical tensions. However, the biggest vulnerability remains higher household indebtedness.” +++

And then there is OSFI Annual Risk Outlook:

“OSFI confirmed it will take direct action against investor mortgages by way of additional rules as part of the international Basel II guidelines.
Investor-class mortgages have come into focus recently, as they now represent close to one-third of recent residential home purchases.

“…as part of the domestic implementation of the Basel III reform package in banks’ fiscal Q2-2023, we are increasing the risk weights, and thus capital required, for investor mortgages compared to the risk weights for owner-occupied properties,” the report reads.

While it’s not clear what this will translate to in terms of specific regulations, an increase in risk-weighing will likely mean a higher down payment requirement compared to owner-occupied mortgages.” +++

Household indebtedness? What a concept.

Hello. Hello in there…Mr. Routledge are you home?

What do you mean it’s not clear? Umm, maybe take a look out your window at the clouds gathering on the horizon that look a lot like the train that rolled down the hill into Lac Magantic. Time to use your awesome powers to do something other than fly around the world (powered by petroleum products) making speeches about climate change. Get those lending policies and products tightened up so people who are unable to push themselves away from the debt snorfelling table are put on a diet that might save their lives and our countries credit rating.
Self control is such an overrated virtue after all….

#9 TurnerNation on 06.10.22 at 12:09 pm

Condos. One rule of Kandos in Kanada is that the monthly maintainence/HOA/strata fees always will converge upon $1 per square foot as the building ages.
Faster for those older buildings, with their pools, tennis courts and all-inclusive utilities in the fee.


— Recession/Kapitalism in Kanada. Does anyone trust the govt to steer this Former First World country through a recession? When they stymie the economy at each step?
Look we are in Year 3 of this. Tell me that is is not permanent control. China eat your heart out.
Make no mistake those “Rules” were designed to bring us to our knees. 6-6-6 feet apart natch.

.Regina Intl Airport president calls to remove remaining travel restrictions (regina.ctvnews.ca)

.The Globe and Mail reports in its Friday edition that Air Canada cancelled more than 350 flights at Toronto Pearson in the first seven days of June — almost 10 per cent of its schedule — as staffing shortages and a surge in passengers continue to beleaguer Canada’s busiest airport. The Globe’s Eric Atkins writes that WestJet and Air Transat have also seen delays and cancellations at Pearson as a rebound in demand for air travel has overwhelmed government agencies that conduct security, customs and immigration checks at the facility and other major Canadian airports. ..The aviation industry says its reduced work force is unable to manage the increase in passengers while still enforcing COVID-19 rules. Vaccine mandates for employees of federal agencies and airlines have also reduced staff numbers, the industry says (stockwatch.com)

#10 Mattl on 06.10.22 at 12:10 pm

Financial markets don’t always rebound quick and can stagnate for a decade +. The SP500 was 1500 in 2000, and didn’t break 1600 until 2013.

My predication is both Financial and RE markets are in for a long period of sluggish growth. Both have been riding on free money and QE. Valuations on both asset classes make little sense.

All the more reason to be balanced.

#11 Sail Away on 06.10.22 at 12:15 pm

Off to Victoria for some good food, nice weather, pleasant beach runs, and our godson’s birthday party. We love spending time in Victoria. Such a nice place.

Now, these young friends, both in medicine, with 2 toddlers, decided last year to cash in their townhome and upgrade to a single-fam. They cleared $800k equity on the townhome and bought in bidding competition for $1.8M, no conditions. So… major roof issues, extensive long-term leakage inside and out, stucco replacement, much interior work… north of $150k when all said and done, paid, of course, via Heloc.

Let’s examine the current situation:

House price: $1.8M
Mortgage @ 2%: $1M – current monthly interest: $1,666
Heloc, now at 4%: $150k – current monthly int: $500

Total current monthly interest payment: $2,166

****

Now let’s assume at mortgage renewal in 3.5 years that the mortgage rate is 6%, yielding monthly interest cost of:

Mortgage @ 6% = $5,000
Heloc @ 8% = $1,000

Total monthly interest payment: $6,000

Oh my. That’s, like, a lot of monthly after-tax $.

****

#12 We just don't on 06.10.22 at 12:16 pm

Sail Away and the rest of us don’t worry about interest rates here in Nanaimo because homes only go up. The price of snow goose and caviar are heavily discounted thanks to the illegal biker underground. Tatts also run cheap for those wondering.

#13 Bipolar on 06.10.22 at 12:17 pm

Thanks for the early post today Garth. Was feeling a little down about my index funds. The reassurance was very helpful. Some times you just have to say;
“What the F$%&!” (Francis Bueller)
Then let everything go!

#14 DON on 06.10.22 at 12:17 pm

@Crowded

Getting closer and gasoline rose to 2.40 the other day. With China locking down again you may have to move the 3 bucks a litre out to mid to end July. But maybe not.

The real question is when is it coming back to the low low low price of $1.49. I crossed 8 fingers and clicked my heels together 8 times before I mounted my rare Unicorn and galloped off to work.

#15 Fringe extremist on 06.10.22 at 12:19 pm

#1 Bonobo on 06.10.22 at 11:44 am
Vote Trump back.

You are clearly a fringe extremist. A racist. A misogynist. And Canadian flag waiver. How dare you. May climate change upon you forever.

#16 DON on 06.10.22 at 12:20 pm

#1 Bonobo on 06.10.22 at 11:44 am
Vote Trump back.

Oh yeah, impeach Biden for incompetence as well.

********
Didn’t your Trump ask the Fed to cut rates as the stock market was his success indicator at the time.

#17 Uncle Kevin knows on 06.10.22 at 12:28 pm

Our third favorite Canadian (only to Garth and Sail Away) was interviewed recently and made it clear there must be a sacrifice for the markets to turn. Think Lehman. We have not yet our our Lehman moment where the markets lay an almighty egg before rebounding. It’s psychological. But there must be a sacrifice. Perhaps it could be Trudeau and the WEF this time.

Elon makes clear that we need a recession and some hard times to get everyone productive again. I totally second that. We can’t all sit around hoping to win speculative lotteries using gov hand outs – those are the crypto, real estate, government and stock market lotteries.

Stand by for an almighty egg lay sometime in the future.

#18 Quintilian on 06.10.22 at 12:33 pm

#10 Mattl on 06.10.22 at 12:10 pm
“My predication is both Financial and RE markets are in for a long period of sluggish growth.”

Agreed, much of the growth and profit in listed companies has come from negative interest rates which lowered the cost of operation.

Another not so obvious benefit from the negative interest rates has been the ability of financing mergers and acquisitions which inflated their sales, and at the same time helped them reduce competition and therefore enhanced the profits.

#19 Dr V on 06.10.22 at 12:34 pm

Dip. Nibbled.

#20 Ponzius Pilatus on 06.10.22 at 12:36 pm

#158 Ponzius Pilatus on 06.10.22 at 11:42 am
#150 KNOW IT ALL on 06.10.22 at 10:06 am
The heat under Powell’s a** rises appreciably.

Real wages WAY negative.

Inflation hit fresh 40-year high in May to 8.6%. It rose 1% from April, topping all estimates.

Core CPI, which DOESN’T include food & energy rose 0.6% from prior month & 6% from a year ago, also above forecasts.
————————————-
Core CPI.
How can they call it the core if it does not include food and energy?
Like doing core body exercises that do not include your hip muscles.
I think the cost of a grain of salt is also not included.

#21 DON on 06.10.22 at 12:37 pm

In other World news.

‘Locusts have provided their employer with the results of a strong Strike Vote’. Wages and lack of wheat fields to ravage remain elevated sticking points in negotiations as per Union boss Jimmy Loffa.

#22 Ponzius Pilatus on 06.10.22 at 12:38 pm

159 Ponzius Pilatus on 06.10.22 at 11:57 am
#151 Mattl on 06.10.22 at 10:34 am
Stan Brooks posts about runaway inflation for years. It finally hits and he is gone. Somewhere I hope Stan is draining an ice cold beer, turns out he had a window into the future.
————————
No window into the future.
Inflation is part of economic circles inherent in the supply and demand equation.
In the long run, prices will always go up.
The BIG Mac once was 20 cents.
Sometimes, like now, prices rise faster, due to unforeseeable events.
Like in the past, it will revert to its historical mean again.
When, that’s the question that not even CEF’s fuzzy crystal ball can foretell.

#23 Pbrasseur on 06.10.22 at 12:52 pm

In Quebec food banks already seeing droves of new middle class customers, a third of older folks live on 20k or less. Etc…

Inflation already destroying lives, and this is just the beginning. That’s why it needs to be stopped no matter the consequences.

#24 Sail Away on 06.10.22 at 12:54 pm

#12 We just don’t on 06.10.22 at 12:16 pm

Sail Away and the rest of us don’t worry about interest rates here in Nanaimo because homes only go up. The price of snow goose and caviar are heavily discounted thanks to the illegal biker underground. Tatts also run cheap for those wondering.

——-

True. Also, there so much free food:

-Beach oysters, mussels, clams, geoducks and cockles, easily gathered at winter nighttime low tides. Cook, smoke and freeze for year-round use.
-Blackberries forever. Pick 2-3 liters a day for a month and that’s, like, lots.
-Mushrooms, nettles, camas, fish, deer, tree fruit, geese
-Excellent soup at Salvation Army

etc…

#25 Philco on 06.10.22 at 1:03 pm

#48 Fond farewell, TurnerNation on 06.09.22 at 5:24 pm
————
Unfortunately gov policy has ALOT to do with markets.
And now you see the unitended consiquencs of their actions.
Ie for one the problem of not being energy indepedant.
Hows that tank of gas?
Go to Campbell and listen to the biggest mistake of the day. Its now a nightmare for some.
https://mikesmoneytalks.ca/june-4th-episode/?mc_cid=3e4a66c431&mc_eid=84b7e8f164

It doesnt bother me a bit because I never trusted them. Im not in their trap like most.
Int rates, food, gas, insurance going through the roof. Awsome.
TN your a go because we are at turn key tyranny.
T2 has his own clueless globalist agenda.

#26 Philco on 06.10.22 at 1:11 pm

T2s little move to gang up with the tan guy cause control for him is #1 on his adjenda. Nice waist of time and money in the middle of a Pan to call an election.
Most cadians are ignorant of alot of things.
Easy to see thier up the creek but havent notice theres no paddles.
..YET

#27 Whitey Ford on 06.10.22 at 1:12 pm

What will you for for the ends.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MjiMqeD-lrs

#28 Dr V on 06.10.22 at 1:16 pm

11 Sail Away

“Oh my. That’s, like, a lot of monthly after-tax $.”
———————————————————

Big debt = big tax. So many people do not make this connection.

#29 The Regulator on 06.10.22 at 1:16 pm

Steve Hanke, Professor of Applied Economics, founder of the Johns Hopkins Institute of Applied Economics, Global Health and Entrepreneurship Studies :
The whole world, but not Russia herself will suffer from those sanctions.” “The sanctions will boomerang on them, but it is the whole world that will have to deal with the greatest damage from them.” Hanke said ” as a result, everyone will end up paying more than they would have otherwise”.

Our Ruskie trollski. – Garth

#30 THE DANDADA on 06.10.22 at 1:16 pm

The FED has added a 3rd mandate:

BANKRUPT the poor and middle classes!

Keep those rates raising while inflation raises at the same time.

That should fix everything.

What’s your solution? – Garth

#31 Philco on 06.10.22 at 1:22 pm

Was just at my farmer buddies. They couldnt get meat birds because of the birdie flu but they could get layers???? Scam.
He thinks their going to possibly control the food suply.
They want him to register for a new # for his license. Hes been farming for 35 years.
He said no o way in H E double hockey sticks.
I trust him….not the gov.

#32 Dr V on 06.10.22 at 1:23 pm

139 T-Rev

“On the other hand……… So who knows………So I dunno
how it turns out…………”
————————————————

There are some posters here who think they do, but you have noted many of the issues and the cause-effect
relationships that make for the unstable equilibrium that is the economy. Good post.

#33 The Regulator on 06.10.22 at 1:26 pm

Demographia’s 2022 Housing Affordability Report rated Vancouver #3 and Toronto #10 in the world for their severe unaffordability. And Siberian cats are being banned from international competitions (Felix take note). In the U.S. Representative Eric Swalwell (Democrat- CA) wants to expell all Russian students from universities. And Ukraine banned War and Peace as propaganda. This is NUTS!!!

#34 Dr V on 06.10.22 at 1:27 pm

22 Ponz

“The BIG Mac once was 20 cents.”
——————————————–

Oh no. If you remember that, you must have been eating
them. Yuk.

#35 The Awakened One on 06.10.22 at 1:36 pm

Thank you Garth,
The voice of reason in times of turmoil, helps to calm the itchy nerve for sure. Will chill for the remaining days.

#36 Shawn on 06.10.22 at 1:41 pm

Not much to argue with in today’s blog

So I will quibble with the following as I always do:

“As bonds pay more, money is attracted out of stocks.”

********************************
My quibble is that while any individual investor can take money out of stocks to put into bonds they can only do so by selling to another investor who puts the same money into stocks.

In the net, zero money comes out of stocks. Instead the price of stocks gets bid lower and the total wealth in the stock market simply evaporates and melts away to some degree.

There is no money in the stock market really. Just like houses are not money neither are stocks. Money is the stuff in your wallet, under your mattress and in bank accounts.

Stocks are wealth measured in units of money – dollars – (remember the criteria that money is a unit of account). Stocks are not money.

Quibble over, please carry on with your days now.

#37 Mr Fox on 06.10.22 at 2:10 pm

Okay. Chilling and waiting :)

#38 DON on 06.10.22 at 2:18 pm

Getting harder and harder to move the goal posts around these days. Last month was a call for peak inflation. You have to let the factors play out before calling an end to the looming hangover.

Like Ron the realtor commented the other day, some of the younger ones expected everything to swing back to normal by the September. The next worry is the impact of a meaningful recession in a year or two unless the Feds can manage the elusive ‘soft landing’. Sometimes you just have to endure the downturns.

#39 Sail Away on 06.10.22 at 2:21 pm

Here’s a good debt-inflation interpretive art skit.

Assume the person is a homeowner with mortgage and the orangutan is inflation.

https://youtu.be/0wn6og0cU7A

#40 ElGatoNeroYVR on 06.10.22 at 2:22 pm

#29 The Regulator on 06.10.22 at 1:16 pm
#33 The Regulator on 06.10.22 at 1:26 pm
===========
Finally ,it was about time our Western govts wake-up from the self-induced naive belief that undemocratic regimes behave by the rules.
Yes ,evertything will cost more , No problem I say. We,as a society overconsume anyway and have forgotten about tomorrow ,living for today willing to scrifice our feeedom and ideals for a quick buck, an extra trinket and a big truck to carry a grocery bag from No Frills home .
Time to go back to the basics and prioritize us rather than trying to reform corrupt regimes.

#41 Grunt on 06.10.22 at 2:27 pm

Your jealous. Bieber is prettier than your Saturday girls. And brings in wads more. As for Abba well that’s kinda like driving a rusty ol 164.

#42 Caleb on 06.10.22 at 2:29 pm

So wouldn’t RE bear ETF’s like HRED (in Canada) and DRV (NYSE) be a good way to benefit from this mess? Namely those RE sideliner’s with down payments sitting in cash ready to pounce? (Just an observation but still looking for some input).

#43 ElGatoNeroYVR on 06.10.22 at 2:37 pm

#18 Caffeine Monkey on 06.09.22 at 4:27 pm
Well… now that prices are suddenly dropping… *throws hands in the air* WHERE DID ALL THE CHINESE GO?
=========
They’re locked in Shanghai and quarantined in Hong Kong ,didn’t you hear ? :-)) .
Or else just enjoying the summer in Zhuhai where the weather is letˋs say just a tad better than in Vancouver this time of the year.

#44 Concerned Citizen on 06.10.22 at 2:41 pm

“Tiff’s sudden resolve suggests to me that inflation is running white hot, and half measures will not do.”

*****

I hate to break it to Ron the realtor, but half measures is all we can expect from the Tiffster. Just look at his track record – he’s been a disaster.

#45 What Could Go Worse on 06.10.22 at 2:43 pm

Over 1 In 5 Homes In Canada Are Bought By Real Estate Investors

Canadian real estate investors are scooping up a massive share of the market. BoC data shows investors were behind 22.2% of homes bought with a mortgage in Q4 2021. This is up from 21.3% in the previous quarter and 19% last year. It’s likely higher than this rate since the BoC only used consumer mortgage data. Investors also use corporate mortgages but people typically don’t.

Interest Rates and Investor Demand Show A Clear Correlation

The relationship between low rates driving investor demand is nothing short of remarkable. After a hike in Q3 2017, investor demand peaked at 20.0% the next quarter. Higher rates saw their share of the market drop further as rates continued to climb. The trend saw the investor share of the market drop straight through to 2020. Still historically high, but more end users were becoming a part of the real estate market.

So is this a housing bubble or an investor bubble?

Steve Saretsky is reporting that one of the major banks in Canada suddenly, without notice, dropped Mortgage Holds from 90 days to 15.

#46 The Regulator on 06.10.22 at 2:43 pm

As I practiced my Sambo on this cool morning, I pulled the flaps of my ushanka down. I wondered, do our silovik even care about us muzhik? I retire now to my izba, as my matryoshka collection needs a well deserved dusting. May all my fellow lishenets have a wonderful day ;)

#47 Dave on 06.10.22 at 2:47 pm

#31 Philco on 06.10.22 at 1:22 pm

I was at my farmer buddy’s place the other day helping him unbox 700 fresh birds dropped off by Canada Post.

#48 Joseph R. on 06.10.22 at 2:52 pm

#35 willworkforpickles on 06.10.22 at 1:32 pm

Central banks can also do “passive Quantitative tightening (QT)” to influence the money supply.

It is the opposite of Quantitative easing: the Central Bank no longer buys Treasury bonds from chartered banks: it lets the bonds it bought to mature and, therefore, forces the chartered banks to pay the coupon at face value.

By doing so, banks lose liquidity and will lend less and increase their interest rates for their lenders.

#49 wallflower on 06.10.22 at 2:53 pm

We now know that recent buying has been almost 25% specuvestor.
There are entire condo buildings in my southern Ontariowe city listing their new-build units for rent… the take-up rate on these is abysmal.
DOMs going into third month.
Massive tsunami coming… these owners have mortgages, taxes and condo fees to pay.

With zero rental income, some of these condo buildings will implode with very low condo fee collections.

What a mess … and sellers will be troubled to close on underwater deals should they elect to sell versus rent. Then what?

For those mopping up, there could be some very sweet deals but tread carefully because owning/living in a condo building where the majority of units are underwater and unrented could be detrimental to your sanity and pocketbook.

#50 Victor Llearna on 06.10.22 at 2:53 pm

Victor learn a new word. protracted. Lets use in sentence:
Trudeau’s reign as PM has been a protracted disaster.

#51 Tom from Mississauga on 06.10.22 at 2:56 pm

Shanghai is going back into lockdown. Amazing that intelligent people believe the CCP. Without a MRNA vax they can’t open. West coast port congestion is going to unwind, Vancouver set to get creamed as the marginal port AND higher interest rates from inflation hits RE.

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/world/article-shanghai-to-lock-down-millions-again-for-mass-covid-19-testing/

#52 Felix on 06.10.22 at 3:03 pm

“Hot”

Yes, Garth, this is a good and humane reminder for dogawful canine owners, do not leave your mutts to cook, parked alone in your cars in this season.

This is a very cruel and inefficient way to prepare dog meat.

Happy Feline Friday!

Did you know:

When a cat flops over and exposes his belly, it’s not always an invitation for a belly rub. A cat does this when he’s relaxed and showing trust.

When cats hit you with retracted claws, they’re playing, not attacking.

When dogs wag their tails, they may be expressing happiness. But this isn’t the case for cats! When your cat wags her tail, it’s her way of warning you that you are getting on her last nerve.

#53 Nonplused on 06.10.22 at 3:04 pm

Now would be an excellent time to revoke the primary residence capital gains exemption so that these poor people who bought at the high can at least write off their losses for tax purposes. sarc/off

#54 T Rex and the dinosaur clique on 06.10.22 at 3:10 pm

Unlike many folks who come on here, I was actually a middle aged person in 1989 (now I’m a freakin’ old person, but still kickin’!)

In 1989 I owned one house.

Now I own two houses.

At one point in my life, I owned five houses (but that was an accident, I bought before I sold, and ended up on the bad end of a failed transaction, meaning I had two more houses than I actually wanted).

I owned my one house in 1989.

I had a friend, who worked as a projectionist. What is this? Well, back in 1989, when you went to see a movie, they would actually bring the movie in a box full of film reels (usually three or four of them), and then someone would have to manually put them on a projector, and then switch from projector to projector throughout the movie as the reels ran out. That person was the projectionist. They used to have a union.

At any rate, he had about ten houses going, bought using capital gains on one existing house (and he just kept buying them, when a house went up, he would mortgage it, and buy another house, then do the same thing).

He just rented them all out (he was smart, he rented rooms, not the entire house. When a tenant stopped paying, he just tossed their stuff on the driveway and changed the lock – you can do that when you rent rooms, the tenant protection stuff doesn’t apply).

At any rate, in 1990, he lost his shirt. In 1991, he lost his pants. By 1993, he was renting a room in his parents’ basement, having lost all ten of his rental houses AND his family home (and also his wife and kids left him, but that is another story for another day).

So at any rate, I caught up with this dude last week. He is freakin’ old (and so am I, but I held up better, he looks like a bag of sh*t, I only look like an old piece of leather, still durable, just beaten up and worn a bit).

He was in probate court, fightin’ his family over his parents’ house. Turns out he just kept living there when they died, and the brothers and sisters, who also get a piece of the pie, have been trying to kick him out.

Probate court takes years, but he was going to lose. The end was near (and a big costs award, he said, that would wipe out his part of the pie).

So my friend, who is in his early 80s, will be left penniless.

Oh well, I hear they are increasing CPP and OAS.

#55 THE DANDADA on 06.10.22 at 3:14 pm

The FED has added a 3rd mandate:

BANKRUPT the poor and middle classes!

Keep those rates raising while inflation raises at the same time.

That should fix everything.

=====================================
What’s your solution? – Garth
————————————————————–

It’s Too Late to be responsible with the countries bank accounts!!

What comes next will rip society to the core.

The truckers convoy is going to look like a birthday party at a senior citizens home compared to what’s coming.

In other words you have nothing to contribute. Good to know. – Garth

#56 Paul on 06.10.22 at 3:15 pm

Wow,I can dust of my 1988 amortization book any day now the rate started at 5 3/4 percent and went to 22 percent not good!

#57 an investor on 06.10.22 at 3:30 pm

What’s your solution? – Garth

Trump 2024

#58 Faron on 06.10.22 at 3:30 pm

#119 Sail Away on 06.09.22 at 10:11 pm
#109 crowdedelevatorfartz on 06.09.22 at 9:13 pm

If only there was a way to stop that. Some way that people could avoid getting that stuff inside their bodies. Some as yet undetermined miraculous method of prevention. If only it could be as easy as a simple choice

This is such a damaging and inhumane and actually incorrect take. If there’s anyone reading comments who struggles with any kind of addiction (statistics tells us there are very likely to be) ignore Sail Aways shaming rhetoric. You won’t get better until you can tune out his kind of garbage and do the work to get clean/sober.

The “choice model” and drug criminalization has been an utter failure and makes addicts feel even more ashamed than they already do which makes the problem worse.

#59 The Original Jake on 06.10.22 at 3:31 pm

Bottom for markets is close. S&P will enter bear market territory very soon followed by the Dow later this summer or early Fall but the latter will be brief.

Real estate though will remain in a funk with a long slow melt ahead.

#60 Faron on 06.10.22 at 3:34 pm

#11 Sail Away on 06.10.22 at 12:15 pm

Sounds kinda mean and judgy. Especially from a guy who is HELOC leveraged into equities and probably a fair bit in the red one them after missing the “dip”. But, that’s a little mean and judgy of me to say I guess.

#61 T Rex and the dinosaur clique on 06.10.22 at 3:35 pm

RE: #30 THE DANDADA on 06.10.22 at 1:16 pm

The FED has added a 3rd mandate:

BANKRUPT the poor and middle classes!

Keep those rates raising while inflation raises at the same time.

That should fix everything.

////////////////////////////////////////////

Have you lived in a country that has experienced a wage/price spiral and out of control currency devaluation?

Trust me, interest rate shocks are better than that.

You never ever want to live through that.

I have, and I can tell you, it is hellish. The worst thing you will ever experience. Ever.

#62 Faron on 06.10.22 at 3:44 pm

#45 an investor on 06.10.22 at 3:30 pm
What’s your solution? – Garth

Trump 2024

We are so screwed.

#63 PeterfromCalgary on 06.10.22 at 3:50 pm

8.6% is a disaster for Biden. I expect he will talk about nothing but guns, Putin and abortion for the next few months to try to distract folks. Modern Monetary Theory is now officially dead and the Biden presidency is on life support. All we need now is a hostage crisis and it will be Jimmy Carter all over again.

#64 Linda on 06.10.22 at 3:50 pm

So what I’m wondering is, how is it that Canada’s inflation numbers are lagging behind the USA numbers? Despite the exchange rate, Canadians routinely go shopping in the USA because prices there are still lower than what we pay here. Covid did slow down the cross border shopping but insofar as I’m aware it has been steadily increasing now that the most draconian travel bans have been lifted.

Anyway, given that we import a lot of stuff from the USA & given that prices there tend to be lower than what we pay here, how is it that our inflation rate is still so far behind what the USA is posting? I realize we have to wait another 12 days to find out the official number for May 2022, but if the USA is posting 8.6% seems to me that Canada should be posting numbers very similar. Yet our April rate was still under 7% so what gives?

#65 ogdoad on 06.10.22 at 3:52 pm

Keep your house, kiddoes. If ya got the dough buy, and keep….then all the ups and downs of the housing market is moot, as far as you’re concerned(good luck today where everyone else is holding your measuring stick – that must suck). Unfortunately, you’ll have to endure boring conversations with neighbors about how little your house is now worth. Just like the 10+ years of “I’m a hero” talk that we’ve had to endure with price inflation.

Bring it on! All you hero’s are now zero’s. Really stings, I know. Like a bandage getting ripped off. I still hug, though. Losers are more the welcome!

OAN – getting muchi on the lawn in the backyard this aft and got walked in on…hahaha…poor kid (FD – kid wasn’t ours either).

oh man, what we we’re talking about? Oh ya, how f’d up y’all worlds are…take a break. I can help. So can leisure. And hugs. I’ll share anytime.

Og

#66 protea on 06.10.22 at 3:53 pm

Last nights report on the siege of the Capitol was very disturbing. My wish is for Trump to finally be charged with a criminal offense for what he is resposible for, Hopefully if never become the President again.

#67 The Regulator on 06.10.22 at 4:08 pm

# 53 – felix : Virtue Signal Alert! As a supposed animal lover, a cat fancier no less, you have sunk to a new low. But no, you’re just a cat lover, you wouldn’t understand my point. Look up toxoplasmosis, as you might want to consult your M.D.

#68 Investx on 06.10.22 at 4:15 pm

“It’s been 40 years since prices were rising this fast (8.6%)…”

LOL. imagine if they calculated the CPI using the same formula used back then instead of today’s BS formula. Today’s inflation would be way higher.

#69 Joseph R. on 06.10.22 at 4:16 pm

#58 an investor on 06.10.22 at 3:30 pm
What’s your solution? – Garth

Trump 2024

————————————–

Don’t you dare call it a cult though; they will get offended.

#70 Dave on 06.10.22 at 4:24 pm

I’m tired of overpaying for food so today I went to the chicken house nearby in Brampton where they slaughter thousands a day and picked up a box of chicken thighs. 18 kg box for only $81. Worksout to $0.45 per 100 grams. Cheaper than chicken wings and more meat too.

I plan on scoring the thighs three times on each side of the bone. I the soak them for 3 days in Frank’s Hot Sauce with Oregano. Then the are put on the barbie. Mmmm served with beer and blue cheese dressing. A sheer delight and a very good source of cholesterol too.

#71 Gen Z on 06.10.22 at 4:26 pm

What if Justin Bieber was sick of Toronto?

Toronto is a pretentious city where Hoomers are willing to pay $500,000 over asking for a $500,000 condo because it’s trendy.

#72 NoOneOfConsequence on 06.10.22 at 4:27 pm

So…um…where do we put the cash from the divvies into? I’ve got $1900 cash to spend in the TFSA…

Obviously anything “real-estate-y” is out but…where to look? (Please no one say gold)

#73 jess on 06.10.22 at 4:33 pm

An economic hurricane may be coming towards some paths — but the one facing Mr. Trump ohlala should he then lose his title of president?

The trial lawyers were listening

Liz Cheney : Trump will be gone and your dishonor will remain as the verdict of history will be harsh

spread false election claims
planned to replace attorney general
pressured vp pence
pressured state officials
instructed state officials to lie
summoned mob
ignored pleas to stop violence

#74 Shawn on 06.10.22 at 4:44 pm

Quantitative tightening explained?

#49 Joseph R. on 06.10.22 at 2:52 pm responded
#35 willworkforpickles on 06.10.22 at 1:32 pm

Central banks can also do “passive Quantitative tightening (QT)” to influence the money supply.

It is the opposite of Quantitative easing: the Central Bank no longer buys Treasury bonds from chartered banks: it lets the bonds it bought to mature and, therefore, forces the chartered banks to pay the coupon at face value.

By doing so, banks lose liquidity and will lend less and increase their interest rates for their lenders.

******************
Joseph, this seems a little mixed up. If central banks stop buying treasury bonds from banks, then the banks don’t pay the coupon. They would in that case continue to own the treasury bonds and collect interest.

What banks can also do is stop buying treasury bonds from the government.

But yes as treasury bond coupon rates go up, the bank will charge more to lend since if they can get say 3% on a treasury bond they will want more from you as a borrower.

I certainly understand how central banks pushed down interest rates by buying treasuries. But I never quite understood how the banks really needed liquidity.

Certainly the banks as a group create their own liquidity since money borrowed tends to stay in some bank or other as a deposit. When I read bank annual reports they never report being short on funds to lend. Loans create deposits as Blacksheep will concur. What banks provide is risk. They take on the risk of repayment (setting aside CMHC and other guaranteed loans). They tend to manage their risks extremely well.

#75 Yukon Elvis on 06.10.22 at 4:46 pm

#59 Faron on 06.10.22 at 3:30 pm
#119 Sail Away on 06.09.22 at 10:11 pm
#109 crowdedelevatorfartz on 06.09.22 at 9:13 pm

If only there was a way to stop that. Some way that people could avoid getting that stuff inside their bodies. Some as yet undetermined miraculous method of prevention. If only it could be as easy as a simple choice

This is such a damaging and inhumane and actually incorrect take. If there’s anyone reading comments who struggles with any kind of addiction (statistics tells us there are very likely to be) ignore Sail Aways shaming rhetoric. You won’t get better until you can tune out his kind of garbage and do the work to get clean/sober.

The “choice model” and drug criminalization has been an utter failure and makes addicts feel even more ashamed than they already do which makes the problem worse.
++++++++++++++

#61 Faron on 06.10.22 at 3:34 pm
#11 Sail Away on 06.10.22 at 12:15 pm

Sounds kinda mean and judgy. Especially from a guy who is HELOC leveraged into equities and probably a fair bit in the red one them after missing the “dip”. But, that’s a little mean and judgy of me to say I guess.
++++++++++++++++++++

Have you told your doctor that the voices are back?

#76 jess on 06.10.22 at 4:50 pm

Faron :

“Hast thou named all the birds without a gun?
Loved the wood-rose, and left it on its stalk?
At rich men’s tables eaten bread and pulse?
Unarmed, faced danger with a heart of trust?
And loved so well a high behavior,
In man or maid, that thou from speech refrained,
Nobility more nobly to repay?
O, be my friend, and teach me to be thine!”

#77 PeterfromCalgary on 06.10.22 at 5:10 pm

It is one of those rare moments in history where I agree with Paul Krugman. Central bankers have a difficult job right now.

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/06/10/opinion/federal-reserve-policy-ecb.html

#78 jess on 06.10.22 at 5:18 pm

those were the days indeed meech lake “march of folly” speech by the royal bank dude…. blaming the quebec question

gogo 80’s the hostile take over raiders puffed up by Mr. Milken’s high-risk financing, mergers and then the acquisitions e.g.Victor Posner and Robert Campeau were junk bonds and bank loans.

whalers wharf , over appraisals, shut down bank branches, called in lines of credit , JUNK BONDS

at that time the ndp claimed it was cheaper to pay peoples mortgages rather than force foreclosure as it was more expensive to support the families on welfare.

#79 Observer on 06.10.22 at 5:37 pm

#68 The Regulator on 06.10.22 at 4:08 pm
# 53 – felix : Virtue Signal Alert! As a supposed animal lover, a cat fancier no less, you have sunk to a new low. But no, you’re just a cat lover, you wouldn’t understand my point. Look up toxoplasmosis, as you might want to consult your M.D.

^^^^^^^^^^
You are much more likely to be infected by toxoplasmosis from eating undercooked meat than from a cat. Also, something like 30% of us already have been infected, but most don’t know it and suffer no reperussions. Why do I know? Two close family members who grew up in the same household had issues. No cat. Likely a shared meal and a genetic predisposition to being susceptible.

#80 Reality check on 06.10.22 at 5:42 pm

Scenes from Ontario in the late 1980s

In the 1980s property had a huge run up in the region from Windsor to Ottawa.

This is what I recall.

People were parlaying gains. House increases in value – use that to buy a rental. Rental increases in value – lever that into another rental unit. I knew teaches, factory workers and civil servants that had 2 to 3 rentals and were flying high. Most had to sell out by the mid 1990s at a big loss.

People felt we could not have a recession in Ontario- the economy was too diversified. Turns out the diversified economy made cars and seats for cars, brakes for cars, radiators for cars…. When the car industry cratered so did the economy of Ontario.

For the most part people did not see it coming. Much like today’s RE adherents people just couldn’t conceive how we could have a major correction. But unexpected sh&t happens.

Once bitten, twice shy. Even when property values dropped by more than 50% (in inflation adjusted values) people were wary about jumping back into the market. That’s why in some Ontario markets it took 20 years for prices to recover to 1989 levels (inflation adjusted).

The rental market was crazy, especially in Toronto. People would pay “key money” to take over rentals.

But here in 2022 we have been conditioned by the experience of the last 20 years and by the RE industry to believe that house prices can never decline. We’ll see.

#81 CL on 06.10.22 at 5:42 pm

I don’t know why people are complaining about the price of a litre of gas at around $2. I just bought a 591ml bottle of water and it was $3 so $5/litre. Inflation is being used as an excuse to charge more. I won’t buy water like that again.

People complain about a commodity called oil that costs not only huge sums of cash to get out of the ground, process and transport but yet buy water like this all day long. Ridiculous.

#82 Faron on 06.10.22 at 5:43 pm

DELETED

#83 Altwaheed Bin Said Bin Ther anddunthat on 06.10.22 at 5:49 pm

@#75 – “Certainly the banks as a group create their own liquidity since money borrowed tends to stay in some bank…They tend to manage their risks extremely well.”
——————————————————————

Ahhh yes, the re-hypothication game all over again. That always ends up going extremely well

#84 Happy Gramps on 06.10.22 at 5:53 pm

I have to question some of these articles and comments about how bad everything is. Here, in Vancouver, the malls are full with people buying just about everything, the restaurants have long line ups for lunch and dinner, the sport area is almost full. Where are these hard done by people. I would think based on the comments I see here, they are in Alberta and Saskatchewan. A bit in Ontario. Probably supporters of that right wing, no focus, and forever in opposition, Conservative party.

#85 crowdedelevatorfartz on 06.10.22 at 5:59 pm

My Goodness.
Did Putin survive an age old, tried and true, Russian Leadership poisoning strategy?

https://nationalpost.com/news/world/vladimir-putin-needed-urgent-medical-assistance

Only his Kremlin enemies know for sure.

#86 Quintilian on 06.10.22 at 6:00 pm

#37 Shawn on 06.10.22 at 1:41 pm
”Stocks are wealth measured in units of money – dollars – (remember the criteria that money is a unit of account). Stocks are not money”

Not quite correct Shawn.

The definition and purpose of money is also a medium of exchange, given that stock are definitely a medium of exchange, stocks therefore can be considered money.
If you know your economics and the history of money, you would know that all kinds of widgets have been used for money including spices.

#87 the Jaguar on 06.10.22 at 6:03 pm

Intrigued by this comment of Garth’s… ‘So, the stock market laid another egg on Friday..’, I took a walk on the wild side and tuned into something called Bloomberg Markets for a few minutes while doing some prep work in the kitchen.

Interview with a guy named Gene Seroka, Port of Los Angeles Director ( the USA’s biggest port) said ” For the month of May we’ll move nearly 970,000 container units. It’ll be our 3rd best month in history. The cargo keeps moving because the consumer keeps buying. Those inventory levels have to be built up across a wide spectrum of retailers and importers”.

Interesting stuff, but I was kind of surprised they didn’t mention today’s opening of the new bridge across the Amur River which is expected to serve as an international goods transportation channel with an annual shipment volume of 21 million tonnes and 1.5 million passengers.

I guess it wasn’t considered newsworthy. What gets reported and what doesn’t can be pretty selective, but I guess that’s all about what people are interested in and what they want to hear. Helps explain why many don’t see what’s coming with housing……

#88 The real Kip (Ret) on 06.10.22 at 6:12 pm

Wow, 8.6%. looks like Americans are as poorly served by the Fed as Canadians are by the BoC. Hope everyone enjoyed the stimmy cheques.

#89 jess on 06.10.22 at 6:20 pm

June 10, 2022
Updated

The U.S. will lift a virus testing mandate for international air travelers on Sunday.

In a move hailed by the travel industry, starting Sunday morning passengers will be able to board flights to the U.S. without a negative coronavirus test.

#90 PeterfromCalgary on 06.10.22 at 6:21 pm

I respect central bankers but none are as tough as Paul Volcker was. He is my hero! Set us up for 40 years of prosperity, low inflation and growth until the current disaster. Nothing lasts forever including the legacy of Paul Volcker! Respect!

#91 Camper at Yonge/Dundas on 06.10.22 at 6:23 pm

house prices decline 30%!!! OMG!…just means 1950’s bungalows in GTA will be sold at $1,200000… dream home…

#92 PeterfromCalgary on 06.10.22 at 6:36 pm

Jesus was the greatest. Paul Volcker was the second greatest!

#93 Dave on 06.10.22 at 6:44 pm

Borrowed money is the root of all evil.

#94 Blacksheep on 06.10.22 at 6:45 pm

Shawn is correct, but what I want confirmed is:

Just as a chartered bank and the mortgagor together, are able to create new deposits ($) based on the clients signature alone, when said debts are repaid, does the $’s created, not evaporate into the ether whence it came, with the bank only harvesting the interest / fees, as their profits?

If so, it means all (most?) chartered bank debt repayments are deflationary and if broadly applied because the consumer suddenly becomes debt averse, exacerbates the dreaded ‘deflationary spiral’.

Careful what you wish for…

#95 Get Grounded on 06.10.22 at 6:48 pm

The US$, gold and silver all got a good bid today.

The precious metals miners were up anywhere from 3% to 10%.

In fact, gold is positive for the year.

Get Grounded, in a little gold that is.

#96 crowdedelevatorfartz on 06.10.22 at 6:50 pm

@#88 A quintillion quantities
“The definition and purpose of money is also a medium of exchange, given that stock are definitely a medium of exchange, stocks therefore can be considered money.
If you know your economics and the history of money….”

+++
Ah yes.
I’ll never forget our Economics teacher explaining how a dollar in your pocket was actually three dollars.

“Its the dollar you have, the dollar you didnt spend and the dollar you can lend….”

Ri-i-i-i-i-i-ght.

Economists.
Worse than accountants at a party.

#97 Faron on 06.10.22 at 6:53 pm

Garth, it does far more damage to publish comments like Sail Away’s than mine calling Yukon Elvis an A-hole. This room is yours in all the ways, the good and the bad.

#98 David Greene on 06.10.22 at 7:09 pm

That’s only part of the modern definition. Another part is that a money (in, currency form anyways) is supposed to be relatively stable store of value. Do most currencies you know go up 5 or 10 % every year?

Stocks are suposed to grow in value, otherwise no one would buy them (except dividends). Money is not. Inflation gurantees that.

———————————————————–
#88 Quintilian on 06.10.22 at 6:00 pm

#37 Shawn on 06.10.22 at 1:41 pm
”Stocks are wealth measured in units of money – dollars – (remember the criteria that money is a unit of account). Stocks are not money”

Not quite correct Shawn.

The definition and purpose of money is also a medium of exchange, given that stock are definitely a medium of exchange, stocks therefore can be considered money.
If you know your economics and the history of money, you would know that all kinds of widgets have been used for money including spices.

#99 Tammy on 06.10.22 at 7:16 pm

Americans, Canadians and everyone else around the world. You like low interest rates, you liked binging on debt with fake low interest rates. Now, pay the higher inflation, it is called economics. You know how many times the world central banks and governments were warned about excessive money printing and kicking the debt can down the road. Many, many, many times. This is all done by design and most people drank the low interest rate, debt is good for the economy, country, society koolaid.

#100 TheDood on 06.10.22 at 7:23 pm

#55 T Rex and the dinosaur clique on 06.10.22 at 3:10 pm
Unlike many folks who come on here, I was actually a middle aged person in 1989 (now I’m a freakin’ old person, but still kickin’!)………..

___________________________

I can relate, I have a friend out here in La La Land (LM), a realtor, who is sitting on more than a dozen properties (rentals that are fully leveraged) and lives in a big house with a garage full of toys – he’s done well the last couple of years, but, has poopood all investing advice in favor of buying more RE as he thinks it cannot fail. He recently turned 40 so is too young to remember what happened before will probably happen again. My fingers are crossed for him, but I fear he may at some point be moving back in with his parents as well.

#101 AK on 06.10.22 at 7:24 pm

“As for people with financial assets, chill.

Do not sell into a storm.”
================================

Used some of my cash today and added to my $QSR and $V holdings.
Lineups at Tim Horton’s are back to pre pandemic levels and Airports are jammed with travelers.

#102 Our Good Justin on 06.10.22 at 7:25 pm

We do have a good Justin, the Bieber.

Why/How did he get Ramsay Hunt syndrome? That’s heart breaking.

He’s the only one pulling up the image of Canada and Justins out there from all the other damage that other one has done, and now Biebss is not well.

Hope he gets better. Nothing we can do, but send him good maple energy. DO IT!

#103 Our Good Justin on 06.10.22 at 7:34 pm

Eric Clapton was the warning.

Celine Dion…well, we know nothing about one of our national treasures and what really happened to her.

Now Justin has Ramsay Hunt.

Heartbreaking.

I don’t know boys and girls. I hope it’s just a giant coincidence and nothing to do with that thing. Their health certainly deserves privacy and we know no facts. But they also certainly have seen what being too open gets you from Eric Clapton’s situation. If I was their PR Team I would make sure they stay away from anything related to that subject, deflect, divert, not say a darn thing. Or they could end up DELETED in addition to their health predicament.

#104 Yukon Elvis on 06.10.22 at 7:42 pm

#99 Faron on 06.10.22 at 6:53 pm

Garth, it does far more damage to publish comments like Sail Away’s than mine calling Yukon Elvis an A-hole. This room is yours in all the ways, the good and the bad.
+++++++++++++++++

Does Nurse Diesel know that you are sneaking onto the internet again ? Remember what happened last time. Canvas sport coat, rubber room, singe marks on your temples. Someone is bound to tell her…….

#105 Ponzius Pilatus on 06.10.22 at 7:46 pm

#34 Dr V on 06.10.22 at 1:27 pm
22 Ponz

“The BIG Mac once was 20 cents.”
——————————————–

Oh no. If you remember that, you must have been eating
them. Yuk.
———————-
When I came here in the early 80’s and had my first Big Mac, I almost threw up.
My sensitive European palate.
I just use the Big Mac as an example because that’s a stat that the simpletons here understand.
The Economist uses it, too.

#106 Terry on 06.10.22 at 7:55 pm

In 2018, I cut my cigarettes, my alcohol, my fast food, my car house ownership, cook all at home, mobile phone etc. I live quite frugal, rent a small basement apartment. The final result is I am saving now $2,500 a month getting back more in income taxes and saving to pay future income taxes a year because contributing to my RRSP, TFSA. All this with no raise for 5 years. I make $49,000 a year full time 5 days a week.

#107 espressobob on 06.10.22 at 8:00 pm

Still don’t see capitulation in the markets.

What a wonderful time to buy when the herd is headed for the exits.

Patience comes with discipline.

#108 Dr V on 06.10.22 at 8:12 pm

88 Q

“The definition and purpose of money is also a medium of exchange, given that stock are definitely a medium of exchange, stocks therefore can be considered money.”
————————————————–

Hmmm.
Never paid an employee with stocks.
Never paid a cell phone bill with stocks
Never made a mortgage payment with stocks
Never sent stocks to the gov for taxes.

No, they are not money.

#109 The Science ™ on 06.10.22 at 8:17 pm

#91 jess on 06.10.22 at 6:20 pm

June 10, 2022
Updated

The U.S. will lift a virus testing mandate for international air travelers on Sunday.

In a move hailed by the travel industry, starting Sunday morning passengers will be able to board flights to the U.S. without a negative coronavirus test.

—————-

No test needed, but gene therapy is still required because of the science.

#110 Dr V on 06.10.22 at 8:36 pm

33 Regulator

“Demographia’s 2022 Housing Affordability Report rated Vancouver #3 and Toronto #10 in the world for their severe unaffordability.”
———————————————————

Common misconception.

While the demograhia studies are telling, their focus is very limited, maybe 8-10 countries, so hardly the “world”. Try this list

https://www.numbeo.com/property-investment/rankings_current.jsp

Well look at that. Moscow, St. Petersburg and Novosibirsk all make the list ahead of Van and TO.

#111 -=withwings=- on 06.10.22 at 8:39 pm

22 Ponz

“The BIG Mac once was 20 cents.”
——————————————–

Oh no. If you remember that, you must have been eating
them. Yuk.

————————–

They were $0.65 USD when introduced in 1967. That’s over 80c Canadian.

#112 Warren-the-lagging_indicator on 06.10.22 at 8:45 pm

#95: “Borrowed money is the root of all evil.”

________________________

At first I thought this was just a little downstream from love but it really isn’t.

#113 -=withwings=- on 06.10.22 at 8:48 pm

Interesting stuff, but I was kind of surprised they didn’t mention today’s opening of the new bridge across the Amur River which is expected to serve as an international goods transportation channel with an annual shipment volume of 21 million tonnes and 1.5 million passengers.

The LA port does 24M tons a month and the Long beach port right next door is similar. 21M tons a year is not worth mentioning. A small port like Halifax will do 4-5M tons a year and 350k+ passengers. The Halifax airport will be over 4M passengers a year. Might be a big deal for the locals, but nothing worthy on a global scale.

#114 Gulf Breeze on 06.10.22 at 8:56 pm

#17 Uncle Kevin knows,

Elon makes clear that we need a recession and some hard times to get everyone productive again. I totally second that. We can’t all sit around hoping to win speculative lotteries using gov hand outs –

SpaceX?

Elon is PT Barnum and it isn’t that hard to over promise and under deliver while selling the world the lie that you are genius who can do no wrong. He’s vile.

#115 crowdedelevatorfartz on 06.10.22 at 9:03 pm

@#102 The Dood
“I have a friend out here in La La Land (LM), a realtor, who is sitting on more than a dozen properties (rentals that are fully leveraged) and lives in a big house with a garage full of toys –”

+++
Greedy + Stubborn = Karma

#116 Call me what you will!! on 06.10.22 at 9:11 pm

Spoke to a neighbor who decided to pack it all up in our Province (although he admits that the boom is starting) to B.C., Kamloops region and cannot find a place to rent although there is plenty of work in his field. Does this not sound and feel like a screwed up Canada or not?? The mind boggles??? People are so confused and scared!!!!

#117 Call me what you will. on 06.10.22 at 9:22 pm

#101 Tammy

Great post Tammy! Shhh, you may scare people into free thinking which is no longer allowed. :)

#118 fishman on 06.10.22 at 9:38 pm

#31 Philco. When the government is going to give you a license take it. Never refuse a license from the government to conduct business & generate cash flow. A license from the government is a license to print money. Buffet said buy a business with a moat. A government license is that moat. Think like a criminal, don’t act like one.

#119 crowdedelevatorfartz on 06.10.22 at 9:49 pm

@#104 Our good Justin
“Hope he gets better. Nothing we can do, but send him good maple energy. DO IT!”
+++

While I don’t wish illness on anyone.

Justin Bieber is “retired” for now.
His net worth is almost $300 million US.
He could “rest and recuperate” forever and never have to worry about money until he dies of old age.
He lives in the US, therefore he can afford the best medical advice and treatment.
Happily married, seems to finally getting his shite together, never has to work again if he doesnt want to……
Hardly a sob story.

#120 Call me what you will!! on 06.10.22 at 9:52 pm

https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/feds-travel-random-arrival-testing-1.6484759

Latest crap that your government is spelling!!

Had my 80 yr old father come out for a visit to Canada after a three yr hell of regulation. Thrice vaccinated only to arrive in Denmark to be tested once again; passed, great, yahoo, only to arrive in Canada with all the paper work, proof of vaccination to be randomly selected for another test. We were thinking to our selves is this for real. YEP, it was, could not shake our heads around that one, but hey, conformed, did what we had to only to be blessed by the same crap when his departure came to Europe, this world is so screwed up it is no wonder people have given up.. It is an absolute farce!!!!

#121 Shawn on 06.10.22 at 9:56 pm

Money Supply Creation and Destruction

#96 Blacksheep on 06.10.22 at 6:45 pm

Shawn is correct, but what I want confirmed is:

Just as a chartered bank and the mortgagor together, are able to create new deposits ($) based on the clients signature alone, when said debts are repaid, does the $’s created, not evaporate into the ether whence it came, with the bank only harvesting the interest / fees, as their profits?

If so, it means all (most?) chartered bank debt repayments are deflationary and if broadly applied because the consumer suddenly becomes debt averse, exacerbates the dreaded ‘deflationary spiral’.

Careful what you wish for…

*****************************
Blacksheep I can confirm that you are also right. New loans create new money and potentially inflation and paying off a loan makes that money disappears into thin air as both a deposit and a loan are extinguished on the books of the banks. And yes that in deflationary, all else equal.

Credit is the grease of the economy. More credit (debt) makes the economy move faster. Repaying debt is taking away some grease from the economy.

Voluntary debt repayments are probably not much of a problem as things just slow a little. Its loan defaults that lead to lenders turning the lending taps way down that would really slow the economy. Those who would want to borrow which stimulates the economy would not be able to. I suppose high interest rates are a milder form of that as well. Borrowing will slow and therefore the economy will contract or at least grow more slowly.

#122 the jaguar on 06.10.22 at 9:56 pm

@115. Thanks for the confirmation.

#123 Canuck on 06.10.22 at 10:01 pm

Terry on 06.10.22 at 7:55 pm

In 2018, I cut my cigarettes, my alcohol, my fast food, my car house ownership, cook all at home, mobile phone etc. I live quite frugal, rent a small basement apartment. The final result is I am saving now $2,500 a month getting back more in income taxes and saving to pay future income taxes a year because contributing to my RRSP, TFSA. All this with no raise for 5 years. I make $49,000 a year full time 5 days a week.
___________________________________________

So how do you like living large?

#124 Flop… on 06.10.22 at 10:02 pm

Flop Drops.

How does this thing work, do I get the union guy or Human Resources involved if my job is interfering with my blogging?

This is some of the sales of note this week.

First, this condo went for 305k, they don’t come much cheaper than that unless they are of the leaky variety.

https://www.zealty.ca/mls-R2692853/113-36-E-14TH-AVENUE-Vancouver-BC/

When I tried to see where the bottom of the detached market was a month ago, the number was 1.5 for Vancouver proper.

It is now 1.4 and heading lower.

This one went for 1.35

https://www.zealty.ca/mls-R2683685/2036-NANAIMO-STREET-Vancouver-BC/

This one went for 1.39

https://www.zealty.ca/mls-R2686621/646-E-CORDOVA-STREET-Vancouver-BC/

This little piggy cried wee, wee, wee, all the way home…

M47BC

#125 Summertime on 06.10.22 at 10:03 pm

#22 Ponzius Pilatus on 06.10.22 at 12:38 pm

Sometimes, like now, prices rise faster, due to unforeseeable events.
Like in the past, it will revert to its historical mean again.

Current inflation was a very foreseeable event for quite some time. It manifested itself initially with excessive credit, asset prices and now at the tail-end, food and energy prices.

Food and energy prices though will not revert to their mean as we are witnessing permanent supply destruction in fertilizers, food, energy.

What is truly astonishing is the persistence and stupidity of posters like Shawn who continue to deny inflation despite the fact that even central bankers acknowledge it and are alarmed about it.

The true inflation of food in my view is 20-25 %, energy – 50-100 % in the last year alone.

And we have seen nothing yet. Just wait until fertilizers crisis hits later this and next year.

#126 Shawn on 06.10.22 at 10:04 pm

Qintillian?

#88 Quintilian on 06.10.22 at 6:00 pm
#37 Shawn on 06.10.22 at 1:41 pm
”Stocks are wealth measured in units of money – dollars – (remember the criteria that money is a unit of account). Stocks are not money”

Not quite correct Shawn.

The definition and purpose of money is also a medium of exchange, given that stock are definitely a medium of exchange, stocks therefore can be considered money.
If you know your economics and the history of money, you would know that all kinds of widgets have been used for money including spices.

**************************************
Nice try. I suppose in a former life a few thousand years ago you may have used cowrie shells, spices or beads or something like that as money.

But try walking into any business today and offering to pay with shares of any company even the bluest of chips and you will be not be coming out with any groceries or a vehicle or gasoline or a Big Mac etc. Stocks are wealth and are measured in units of money (dollars) but certainly are not money in our society today.

Better luck next response.

#127 Unpinned on 06.10.22 at 10:07 pm

Nutrien CEO’s plan for the fertilizer company is to use “autonomous” machines to mine their product deep under ground making it safer for “miners”…the downside the machines replace the miners. Miners make a hefty $40 plus per hour in Canada. Shoppers and Wal-Mart are replacing real live cashiers with “You do the work Check out cashes”. The labour crunch could be short-lived and temporary if CEO’s get on the “robot” future.

#128 Ohmm on 06.10.22 at 10:10 pm

#113 -=withwings=-

Loved the cheese burgers when they were actually cheese burgers for .25 cents, was making around 4 dollars an hour back then, good times. A&W still had cuties on roller skates delivering food to your car window with an attached tray that clung to your side window. You kids have lost out but keep voting for these bufoons; get what you vote for… :)

#129 Ustabe on 06.10.22 at 10:27 pm

#106 Yukon Elvis on 06.10.22 at 7:42 pm

Either arguing with someone or attempting to put them down by insinuating they are mentally compromised or under the care of psychiatric professionals is lame.

Not at all what a confident, sturdy, conservative man would do generally. In fact I’d say that juvenile and immature line of thought would be more in the domain of a pimply punk kid, not a man of stature such as yourself.

#130 Faron on 06.10.22 at 10:48 pm

#106 Yukon Elvis on 06.10.22 at 7:42 pm

Is she one of your SE Asian “friendly” women?

#131 Cottage Cowboy on 06.10.22 at 10:54 pm

We just sold our cottage for $2million. We bought it for $500k 10 years ago. It is a nice but just above average cottage on a decent lake. Although we are sitting on huge paper gains, the opportunity cost of cottaging is now ridiculous. $2 million @ 5% yield is $100k/year. We used the place 50 nights a year. That works out to $2k a night excluding maintenance, taxes and $200 a weekend in gas. We think it works out to about $2,500 / night for these places now. We decided to take the money, invest it and travel.

#132 KNOW IT ALL on 06.10.22 at 11:20 pm

What’s your solution? – Garth
‐——

Start by getting that cenile, delusional, washed up politician of a President out of the White House.

And send that cackling brain dead fool of a vice-president with him.
———

The most prestigious country/business in the world (USA) being run by the most incompetent management in history.

SHAME!

#133 Nonplused on 06.10.22 at 11:36 pm

Remember folks, “if it isn’t monetary, it isn’t inflation”.

“Inflation is always and everywhere a monetary phenomena”.

#134 Faron on 06.10.22 at 11:44 pm

#131 Ustabe on 06.10.22 at 10:27 pm
#106 Yukon Elvis on 06.10.22 at 7:42 pm

Either arguing with someone or attempting to put them down by insinuating they are mentally compromised or under the care of psychiatric professionals is lame.

It’s worse than lame. It’s outright, debilitatingly classless and ugly.

#135 T-Rev on 06.10.22 at 11:46 pm

I don’t know about the rest of ya, but run a B&D with the usual passive index ETFs that are household names, my split is about 30/30/25/15 Bonds/US/Maple/International and I’m down about 11-12% very peak to trough in the last six months. Assuming Garth must be loaded up heavier on Maple and Bonds, but that’s big difference vs his 7%. I’m also lighter on prefs and REITs than the Bearded Guru. How bout the rest of ya’ll?

#136 Ohm on 06.11.22 at 12:06 am

#137 T-Rev

Yep, same, down 11%, thought I did everything correctly, banks are banks just like gas companies that raise there gas prices by 10 to 15 cents overnight, whatever happened to the 1 to 2 cents overnight???? It is all a scam!! Keep voting for it….

#137 the Jaguar on 06.11.22 at 12:13 am

A student of what is available for viewing on Realtor.ca should be able to see it. Even here in Cowtown where there has been a recent bounce. Not the result, but the rapidity of the result. The sudden impulse to act with a leap of faith before it is too late. (Sellers).

Instructional. It’s also becoming more obvious in everyday comings and goings…A stroll through ones hood, a casual drive to or from the usual destinations and back. Talking about anxiety levels in plain sight.

It’s been some time in world history since planets have lined up in this way. Concerning to say the least. Contingency planning might be a good idea. Oh well, let’s all just get back to the puzzling issue of why Kim Kardashian would be dating Pete Davidson…

8 Reasons Why Rome Fell:
-Invasions by Barbarian tribes
-Economic troubles and overreliance on slave labor
-The rise of the Eastern Empire
-Overexpansion and military overspending
-Government corruption and political instability
-The arrival of the Huns and the migration of the Barbarian tribes
-Christianity and the loss of traditional values
-Weakening of the Roman legions
+According to a well-known expression, Rome’s emperor at the time, the decadent and unpopular Nero, “fiddled while Rome burned.” The expression has a double meaning: Not only did Nero play music while his people suffered, but he was an ineffectual leader in a time of crisis.

#138 Faron on 06.11.22 at 12:43 am

#77 jess on 06.10.22 at 4:50 pm

Thanks for the poem Jess. Worlds away from the aesthetically barren, macho fare of steerage.

Have a good weekend.

#139 Midnight’s on 06.11.22 at 1:06 am

Maybe they’re wrong, lol?

https://www.cnbc.com/amp/2021/10/18/the-wealthiest-10percent-of-americans-own-a-record-89percent-of-all-us-stocks.html

But maybe they’re right?

Now let’s look what the Fortune 400 Says about wealth.

One’s home/house is not included in one’s net worth.
The same as what Robert Kiyosaki said 20 years ago. One’s home is not any asset, one’s car is not an asset. Unless you own Enterprise or a similar business. Now rentals, land, commercial property, machine and equipment (ASSETS). When a company goes broke, what do the Bond Holders get? They get part of the assets of the company that are sold. Stockholders (zero). The bank that lent the money on the factory get the factory back to sell. Which is an asset on their balance sheet.
You hate the Rothschild’s quote, lol. Maybe, the Trillionaire‘s are wrong too.
Someone commented on Trudeau not building anything. He’s 100 percent correct even on the sliding scale of 1-10 of Fortune. You should take a look at what his daddy gave him. Then have your company do an Analysis, on how well he managed the money. Now that would be an awesome study. I’m willing to bet it’s similar on how he’s running the country. Factoid, I read an article that indicated that Trudeau couldn’t even receive his inheritance until 50 or so. That shows how much trust his own father had in him, lmbo.

#140 Jane24 on 06.11.22 at 2:13 am

I also knew as soon as I read it that Modern Monetary Theory was an internet creation and crap. In real life someone has to pay the bills. Money is never free.

Here in England inflation is officially 8% now but I am sure it will hit the magic 10% by next month. House prices are holding up but they only went up 12 to 17% during the pandemic. You can still buy a nice 3 bed semi for $500,000 Cdn in our major city of Southampton. Airports are a mess as no-one wants to work for min wage and get up at 3am. Ditto the hospitality industry.

Changing times. Suck it up.

#141 calgaryPhantom on 06.11.22 at 3:57 am

#137 T-Rev

I don’t know about the rest of ya, but run a B&D with the usual passive index ETFs that are household names, my split is about 30/30/25/15 Bonds/US/Maple/International and I’m down about 11-12% very peak to trough in the last six months. Assuming Garth must be loaded up heavier on Maple and Bonds, but that’s big difference vs his 7%. I’m also lighter on prefs and REITs than the Bearded Guru. How bout the rest of ya’ll?

————————————-

I am down 6.5% ytd….usually in line with Garth’s B&D allocations… but this year i have been slightly overweight on xef, xec and xic….and extremely underweight on bonds by holding 15% cash… i will use that portion to buy bomd etfs throughout the year.

#142 under the radar on 06.11.22 at 5:53 am

Debt is what killed people in 89 and will do the same in 22. Never use variable rate short term money for a long term RE purchase in a rising rate environment . This mistake taught Paul Reichman a thing or two, and he was a RE titan. This scenario is what the variable rate crowd must now contend with. Debt rolling over at much higher rates while values and net income head lower. Big Hat no cattle crowd goes down in times like these.

#143 Fortune500 on 06.11.22 at 7:51 am

So don’t sell the portfolio, but do sell the house? Timing the market in either case seems foolhardy for those who bought a home to live in and can afford the rate increases.

Nowhere did I suggest selling a house just because rates are up and value declining. However if you had been contemplating a sale, delaying could be costly. – Garth

#144 TurnerNation on 06.11.22 at 8:24 am

Sticking with my predictions made here from 6 months ago at least:

#3 TurnerNation on 11.24.21 at 3:02 pm
Next step of the Reset? I’m still expecting a severe consumer recession 2023-24. The trap is sprung.

#7 TurnerNation on 12.21.21 at 3:19 pm
How can there not be a severe Consumer Recession in 2023-24? Record high debt levels vs. incomes.
Almost out of control price inflation on key goods. A point or two of juiced interest rates will tip the balance.

#27 TurnerNation on 01.01.22 at 3:41 pm
Don’t take my word for it. Kanada is done for.
Still predicting a massive Consumer-led recession in 2023-24.



The children will have it worse. Don’t tell me this wasn’t already known.
Total State dependence and submission is the goal. Substandard State “education” and indoctrination. Substandard State health care. State-provided legal soma and hard drugs. (“They’ll stone you just like they said they would; everybody must get stoned”)
State pittance OAS. At the end the ever-helpful State Assisted Dying program. But you are free to leave at any time Comrade. Try it.

.School closures in Ontario had minimal impact on curbing COVID cases, study says (toronto.citynews.ca)

.Pandemic babies are behind. Years of stress, isolation have affected their brain development (usatoday.com)

#145 crowdedelevatorfartz on 06.11.22 at 9:16 am

@#142 Jane24
” Airports are a mess as no-one wants to work for min wage and get up at 3am. Ditto the hospitality industry.”
+++
I think its more along the lines of .
“What’s the point of getting up at 3am to work for min wage to go home and pay exorbitant food, rent, transport costs?
I’ll go work somewhere else for better hours and pay so I actually have money left over at the end of the week.”

Inflation will be around until the interest rate rises….crush it ….along with the economy, the jobs and the greed.

#146 Dharma Bum on 06.11.22 at 9:30 am

Low interest rates are like booze and drugs.

A lot of fun – while they last.

Once they’re gone, or you’ve overindulged, the music stops.

Then the pain starts.

And trust me…it has only barely started. The worst is yet to come.

DTs. (Look it up – watch The Lost Weekend with Ray Milland.)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eVb2LVcDfTQ

The carnage will be epic.

Debt pigs beware.

Moderation wins.

#147 crowdedelevatorfartz on 06.11.22 at 9:41 am

Gee,
China’s “total lockdown policy” seems to be an epic failure.

https://www.reuters.com/world/china/china-reports-new-210-covid-cases-june-10-vs-151-day-earlier-2022-06-11/

Not good when one considers that, after two long years, most mainland chinese haven’t been vaccinated even once.
Expect lots of elderly in China to die.
And while Covid rears it’s ugly head in China ( population 1.4 billion)

Canada does ….this……

https://vancouver.citynews.ca/2022/06/10/canada-travel-covid-19-tests/

The politically correct appeasement monkeys in Ottawa are hard at work.
Perhaps random testing for select countries citizens might be a better idea?

#148 Linda on 06.11.22 at 9:53 am

#86 ‘Happy’ – yes, folks are shopping, eating out etc. in droves. Thing is, most of them likely are doing so on credit. There is a reason why personal debt levels are climbing & it isn’t all due to inflation. That is just the additional booster to the debt gasoline.

#149 crowdedelevatorfartz on 06.11.22 at 10:03 am

Did bumbling bureaucracy during the Nova Scotia mass shootings lead to more deaths?

27 minutes….. waiting for “approvals”……

https://www.halifaxexaminer.ca/featured/27-minutes-the-rcmps-communications-division-hesitated-when-the-public-most-needed-to-be-warned-about-the-mass-murderer/

#150 Quintilian on 06.11.22 at 10:39 am

#128 Shawn on 06.10.22 at 10:04 pm
“Nice try. I suppose in a former life a few thousand years ago you may have used cowrie shells, spices or beads or something like that as money.”

So I gather you think stocks are an asset, but cannot be used as a medium of exchange, and definitely not a unit of account in all likelihood.

But do tell what is crypto?

#151 Georgie bestzzz on 06.11.22 at 10:39 am

The Canadians men soccer team is a disgrace. They qualify for world cup and now try to guarantee failure. All elite teams play pre WC games. Japan has played Ghana, Paraguay, Brazil and Tunisia in last 2’werks. These Canadian ass*holes, have played Curacao, to a country named after a liqueur! The Iran debacle is huge and now these idiots have a moral obligation to boycott any spiting event if they disagree with the other countries politics. Canada must withdraw from all international sports!

#152 David Paquette on 06.11.22 at 10:40 am

II am sitting and chilling. Come September I expect to have a better read where we are going. Don’t think I can’t move quickly.

I just got another affliction – Cataracts – f&&K! Turns out there is a huge waiting list thanks to cv19 lockdowns. I think God hates me probably because I not afraid to tell him to piss off – I only have one life to give (but then I don’t believe and will try again).

I listen to other people because I am wrong a lot yet my convictions have served me well. Double down is something I avoid. We will see if I am up to the poorhouse again. Lament of the retired – costs are rising faster than income. I don’t expect Mils to feel sorry for me. Trust me, I will not be a burden on you.

#153 DON on 06.11.22 at 11:09 am

#131 Ustabe on 06.10.22 at 10:27 pm

Either arguing with someone or attempting to put them down by insinuating they are mentally compromised or under the care of psychiatric professionals is lame.

Not at all what a confident, sturdy, conservative man would do generally. In fact I’d say that juvenile and immature line of thought would be more in the domain of a pimply punk kid, not a man of stature such as yourself.

**************
This kind of behaviour just enforces that while everyone gets older some never really grow up.

The ones that can’t admit they were wrong or who were misguided by others have to lash out to ensure everyone feels their pain.

There are a number of folk I have come across who translated their real estate gains into self declared brilliance in all other aspects of life.

#154 The Regulator on 06.11.22 at 1:55 pm

# 112 – Dr V : Point taken. This tells me cities in general are unaffordable, and many are way too big. They are environmental disasters which destroy productive farmland and like a plague, devour everything in their path.

#155 Tony on 06.12.22 at 5:19 pm

Re: #30 THE DANDADA on 06.10.22 at 1:16 pm

In an aging society with a falling birthrate higher interest rates helps more people than it hurts. Assuming the only ones with money are the older ones from the boomer generation. Japan and Europe made the wrong monetary policy error not seeing people live longer and fewer people being born. In the future it will only become more pronounced as more people are living longer and less people are being born every year. The way I see it the younger generation are a lost cause anyway so why help them at the expense of everyone else when nothing positive comes from it?

#156 Tony on 06.12.22 at 5:54 pm

Re: #143 calgaryPhantom on 06.11.22 at 3:57 am

I did very well betting maiden races at the racetracks in 2021. I spent most of my time during Covid handicapping races. I played a lot of track bias at different racetracks.

#157 Tony on 06.12.22 at 6:42 pm

Re: #92 PeterfromCalgary on 06.10.22 at 6:21 pm

Paul made me a lot of money and I bought some fifty year strip bonds in 1982 as did my late father. So he made me money as rates rose and as they fell. Most of the people I know today say the same thing about Paul Volcker.

#158 Tony on 06.12.22 at 7:12 pm

Re: #65 Linda on 06.10.22 at 3:50 pm

The CPI is calculated different in Canada. In America housing and rents make up about 31 percent of the CPI. That’s how rents doubled in the last 5 or 6 years in Canada and inflation stayed around 2 percent before Covid-19 up here.