Then came three

For the first time in a dozen years the yield on a Canada five-year bond topped 3% on Monday.

What does that mean?

For starters, this is shocking. Two summers ago the yield was 0.32%. Yes, one third of one per cent. Last summer it had crept up to 0.81% – still less than 1%. So a yield today of 3.1% means rates in the bond market (for this risk-free federal debt) have jumped 282% in twelve months.

Second, this is the benchmark used to set five-year mortgage rates. “3% has been a tough nut to crack,” says celebrity mortgage broker/blogger Rob McLister. “A sustained break above it would spawn a series of new big bank fixed-rate hikes.”

Indeed. Rates are actually going up this week. Likely again in the next ten days.

Canada 5-year bond yields hit 12-year high

Source: Investing.com

Third, Mr. Market is signaling that investors think CBs will continue to go all Village-People on rates in the next few weeks, jacking them significantly on June 15 (Fed), July 13 (Canada), July 26 (Fed) and Sept 7 (Canada). Probably more after that. The next increases will be 50-75 bips. The BoC rate will hit 3% this year, or double the current. We told you yesterday what that does to mortgages and the chartered bank prime.

Fourth. If investors thought we were headed for a recession, bond prices would be rising (they are falling) as money flowed into the safe haven of government and investment-grade debt. But that’s not happening. And equity markets, while volatile, haven’t been selling off lately. So draw your own conclusions. (Mine are that you’d be wise to shift assets from real estate to financials.)

Fifth, CBs are data-driven, and this is going to be a big week for stats. US inflation numbers come out Friday. “Inflationary pressures will be showing no signs of cooling,” says Scotiabank economists. “The monthly gain in headline CPI could remain toward the upper end of the multi-decade experience.” The betting is CPI will rise to 8.5% year/year. Deep in the red zone.

In Canada the jobs report is also printed on Friday. The number should be higher, but wages are expected to continue falling far behind the cost of living increase. Wage gains have been eroded for several months now, as the price of everything goes up. You can see the impact of that in a dismal Equifax document published late last week, showing we are bigger debt hogs than ever – borrowing to cover inflation.

Monthly credit card spending is up 17%. Lenders increased credit card issuance by 31% in the last three months and spending limits have hit a seven-year high. Consumers now owe more than $20,000 each (not counting mortgages or HELOCs) and total debt has arrived at $2.3 trillion. That’s bigger than the entire economy.

Says Equifax: “Pent-up demand and increased travel with the easing of COVID restrictions, combined with soaring inflation have led to some of the highest increases in credit card spending we’ve ever seen.”

Six, all of the above is making people pissy and doubtful (look at the comment section lately), believing because their personal finances suck that we must be hurtling into recession and bear market chaos.

But, no. There’s nary an indication this is the case. More likely, over-leveraged homeowners and others who have lived beyond their means and borrowed from the future will experience personal recession. Their collective sins may weigh on economic activity, but are unlikely to derail it.

Seventh, residential real estate will continue to be the poster child for all of the above. The average detached house in Pickering is now down 21% from the February peak, so anyone who bought then with 10% or 15% down has lost all their equity and is under water. Condo listings in Toronto and Vancouver have started to jump. Average prices in suburban YVR are now experiencing double-digit price reductions. The pace of MLS terminations and relistings (at lower asking prices) is torrid.

Yes, and the Bank of Canada benchmark rate is still only 1.5%, up from one-quarter of a point, and set to double from here. All it took were three little rate bumps for the supply of available homes to explode, for sales to tank and prices roll back significantly. Turns out the politicians were crazy to say we need 1.5 million more homes thrown up as fast as possible, to slap fat taxes on under-utilized properties, to impose levies on non-local buyers, come up with special flip penalties or inflate condo assignments with HST.

We just needed to get normal.

About the picture: “Thanks for all you do to make us more financially aware,” writes Heather in South Surrey, BC. “You probably have no idea how many lives your daily blog has changed for the better. It’s a must-read in my circle, and I love the critter pics. Here’s a pic of Afrika in her prime. How she lived to the ripe ol’ age of 13.5 remains a mystery. She chased anything that moved, whether it be a herd of mountain sheep, horses on a beach, bunnies hiding in the hedge or an innocent skateboarder riding home from school. A close encounter with a black bear didn’t faze her a bit. We should all be so fearless. Seeing Afrika’s pic gracing the top of your blog would make my year.”

170 comments ↓

#1 Søren Angst on 06.06.22 at 2:52 pm

June 6, 1944

The end of Fascism and Nazism begins.

Landing of “A Company”
North Shore Regiment
Juno Beach

An extraordinary Thread to this Tweet by @CAFinUS:

https://twitter.com/CAFinUS/status/1532951498786742272

Mille grazie 🍁 for the eventual liberation of Italia. Your sacrifice will never be forgotten by me.

————-

Operi latura vetustas heroum.

#2 Mean Gene on 06.06.22 at 2:53 pm

Time to relearn the fine art of asking Boss-man for a raise.

#3 Home Delivery on 06.06.22 at 2:55 pm

CNBC just reported that inflation has peaked. Glad we got that out of the way.

#4 I lost my savings in LUNA on 06.06.22 at 3:01 pm

Those infamous Swedish-based REITS in Toronto are hiking rents in anticipation for interest rate hikes.

The big question is, which sane person will pay C$2,000+ a month to rent a studio apartment in High Park?

#5 Mosey on 06.06.22 at 3:02 pm

The trouble with the is it always gets worse. Bruce Cockburn

#6 mitzerboyakaQueencitykidd on 06.06.22 at 3:04 pm

June 6 1944
Juno Beach

Lest we forget

wood have been a different ballgame
goin forward.

#7 catzndogz on 06.06.22 at 3:06 pm

It will be lovely to see fewer Audis on the road.

#8 Dr V on 06.06.22 at 3:07 pm

I’m not getting the Village People reference. Disco? YMCA? Cowboy? Anybody? Thanks

#9 Omicron Kenobi on 06.06.22 at 3:10 pm

And guess what else I have in store for you all?

COVID wave 7/8/9.

Monkeypox from my cousins.

And now superspreader wild boars!

https://www.albertafarmexpress.ca/news/wild-pigs-could-be-superspreaders-of-disease-expert-warns/

https://www.ctvnews.ca/sci-tech/wild-pigs-are-rapidly-spreading-across-canada-and-researchers-say-it-s-time-to-worry-1.4443150

We’re coming for you all – Fun Times Ahead!

#10 Penny Henny on 06.06.22 at 3:11 pm

May numbers from the Niagara Real Estate Board.

Year over Year for May

New Listings 1247 – 1480 up 18.7%
Sales 947 – 595 down 37.2%
HPI Benchmark Price 647,400 – 790,500 up 22.1%
Days on Market 14 – 15 meh

Interesting though the HPI (home price index) is down from April’s $814,600 and March’s $825,300.

HPI
January $748,800
February $798,100
March $825,300
April $814,600
May $790,500

https://www.niagararealtor.ca/monthly-stats

#11 Prince Polo on 06.06.22 at 3:13 pm

The May GTA avg price was $1.52M.

Still light years from normal!

The reference clearly was to rates. Prices will come. – Garth

#12 SeeB on 06.06.22 at 3:13 pm

Cool. Once these proce decreases begin to accellerate, all that’s left is for BlackRock et al to swoop in, buy up tens.of.thousands of distressed properties, and peanently price regular Canadians out, ensuring the formation of a permanent renter class to exploit further through financialization and securitization of these properties. Corporate “cost-saving” measures (never fixing things) will follow, while the gov will cater to them since squeezing rents will form the backbone of pension schemes, and these corporate ghouls will secure bailouts for any potential downswings under the now classic “too big to fail” pretext

We will devour each other just for a chance to *think* about retiring.. let alone tge dream .

#13 SeeB on 06.06.22 at 3:14 pm

*Let alone the dream of having a secure home for a fair price, be that rental or ownership.

#14 Bryan on 06.06.22 at 3:17 pm

We just needed to get normal….

Garth, you should run a campaign on that. You’d have me vote!

#15 Søren Angst on 06.06.22 at 3:17 pm

The numbers are staggering.

$2.3 Trillion of Total Debt. $1.866 Trillion in 2019.

+23.3%

———

$20,000 per person in Credit Card Debt. $6,800 Average in 2019.

+194%

Wages are not keeping up due to Inflation. This will not end well.

#16 TurnerNation on 06.06.22 at 3:20 pm

This would be a great time to be Amish.
Or into this:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Islamic_banking_and_finance
Islamic banking, Islamic finance
or Sharia-compliant finance[1] is banking or financing activity that complies with Sharia (Islamic law) .
Sharia prohibits riba, or usury, defined as interest paid on all loans of money

#17 Søren Angst on 06.06.22 at 3:24 pm

I have to say that Tiff Macklem

https://www.bankofcanada.ca/profile/tiff-macklem/

looks a lot like…

David Hodo sans goatee.

Tiff, in his racier days:

https://www.imdb.com/name/nm0388317/mediaviewer/rm3169977088/

The helmet insignia emblematic of where rates are going.

#18 Tom from Mississauga on 06.06.22 at 3:25 pm

The 1 year chart on S&P 500 is a glaring head and shoulders

#19 So glad I sold on 06.06.22 at 3:30 pm

Noticing a slowdown of sales, more listings as well as reduced prices. I wouldn’t be surprised to see some presale sites closed due to insufficient sales. Who can afford the monthly payments that will be required at higher mortgage rates as well as maintenance fees and property taxes. Maintenance fees always rise due to increase in insurance as well.

#20 Dave on 06.06.22 at 3:30 pm

Garth,

Where did you get that avg debt stat from? Seems hard to believe. Avg means those of us that have none, then there are many that have more than 20K of non mtg debt!

Equifax. – Garth

#21 Captain Uppa on 06.06.22 at 3:30 pm

Mortgage rates go uppa, Uppa, UPPA!!!!!

Specu-flippers go downa, Downa, DOWNA!!!!!

Good.

#22 wallflower on 06.06.22 at 3:33 pm

Been watching those delistings and relistings for months now.
CREA and boards do not capture nor share any metrics of value such as these.
(And DOM is a joke because I am watching both routine sales and rental relistings with 0 DOM starts grow exponentially. But we already know DOM is a farce and always has been.)

The delistings/terminations to sales ratio is growing.
And I am now watching recent solds list to sell where the clear end game is underwater, but out.

#23 Faron on 06.06.22 at 3:36 pm

#155 Dr V on 06.06.22 at 2:58 pm
152 Faron – a few posters found sailos comment worth
reading.

Okay. Seemed hyper mundane to me. I find his need to update steerage on the minutiae of his life extremely lame and wasteful of Garth’s time. I do my share of that wastage, but refrain from day in, day out chronicling because who cares. Nobody is that important. Even Garth with an arguably important place in society (almost) never tells us what time he gets up in the morning or what he had for breakfast. Thank God for that.

Yes, Earth’s climate takes plenty of time to adjust to forcing. Tens to hundreds of years for temperature to respond to CO2 (with a long taper due to ocean thermal inertia) and the big ice sheets take longer yet. Unfortunately, at this point, we may have baked in meters of sea level over thousand year timescales. This will exert a lot of social pressure. Florida will be first in the US to feel it.

#24 Trigger Happy on 06.06.22 at 3:38 pm

DON has been TRIGGERED and that makes me HAPPY.

BTW, it didn’t take much, but that was obvious from all of his previous posts!

#25 Søren Angst on 06.06.22 at 3:38 pm

#16 TurnerNation

Pecunia non olet.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Usury
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eighth_Commandment

Redde caesari quae sunt caesaris.

#26 Bard Lmab on 06.06.22 at 3:39 pm

Now is the best time to buy Toronto real estate. Remember that we welcome 500,000 new permanent residents a year. They need a place to live. Canada is the greatest country in the world.
Everybody wants to live in Toronto the Supreme World Class City.

#27 Froggy on 06.06.22 at 3:41 pm

Hi Garth l would suggest maybe changing the title of the blog to trapped greater fool

#28 Satori on 06.06.22 at 3:41 pm

Sad for all the Mills, and yet they just absolutely love Justin Trudeau to bits.

Must be Stockholm syndrome.

#29 Spilling the beans on 06.06.22 at 3:45 pm

And equity markets, while volatile, haven’t been selling off lately. So draw your own conclusions. (Mine are that you’d be wise to shift assets from real estate to financials.)

_________

So much for … stay the course, invest for the long term, diversified balanced portfolios, not speculating. I guess it’s alright when it fits the narrative you want to project.

While you are at it, why not tell people that Kelowna home prices will go down 47% because some shady outfit said so on the internet… no, wait… you already did.

Zero change to the financial portfolio makeup or strategy. As for Kelowna, sorry about your house. Really. – Garth

#30 Søren Angst on 06.06.22 at 3:49 pm

#18 Tom from Mississauga

Shows growth stocks not doing well but value stocks are.

This Blog recommended value stocks awhile back w/dividends if possible.

My YTD *:

+16.0%

My dividends/mo average, annualized, past 9 months:

21.6%

This Blog warned. I listened and adjusted.

————–

* That includes my TWTR investment Albatross. Of course, Mr. Big Mouth has not learned the fine art of SHUTTING IT:

https://edition.cnn.com/2022/06/06/tech/elon-musk-twitter-spam/index.html

TWTR
-1.64% today
Jun 6, 3:47:28 PM UTC-4

#31 DON on 06.06.22 at 3:50 pm

#24 Trigger Happy on 06.06.22 at 3:38 pm
DON has been TRIGGERED and that makes me HAPPY.

BTW, it didn’t take much, but that was obvious from all of his previous posts!

*****
Me in the know…not triggered, but you certaintly are projecting a lot. You seem very worried hiding in the shadows. Very telling.

#32 WTF on 06.06.22 at 3:52 pm

When one can rent for almost third of the price to purchase a comparable in DT Van, Add in the various taxes to purchase/sell. Killer financially.

Price to Rent and Income are soo out if whack in this city it will take a tsunami of epic proportions to normalize.

Zillow.ca starting to look like it has the measles. Listings bloat. Panic ensues. Blame game commences shortly.

#33 "NUTS!" on 06.06.22 at 3:53 pm

I suppose it really begs the question; what is normal? Pricing in Canada, particularly the West Coast has defied all traditional investment principles when calculating appropriate value. It used to be 3 or 4 years of the average household income was the target value of a home. Those days are long gone. So again, we don’t know what normal is anymore.

#34 Faron on 06.06.22 at 3:55 pm

Few things about today’s post:

I wouldn’t underestimate the effect of RE sinking and consumer spending decreases on the economy or equities

Bonds also falling because of imminent CB supply dumps. Positively correlated bond and equity prices can remain in place for long periods and thus hammer a trad 60/40

Wealth effect (negative) from falling RE and equities could fuel a feedback.

Not related: today SPX up and VIX up. Positive correlation here is always worth noting.

#35 OK, Doomer on 06.06.22 at 3:57 pm

Third, Mr. Market is signaling that investors think CBs will continue to go all Village-People – Garth

????????????

I must not be that deep. That one blew right by me…

#36 Inequity on 06.06.22 at 3:58 pm

#9 Omicron Kenobi

I’m not 100% sure of this sites demographic, but probably most people here were born before 1974 and don’t have to worry about monkeypox.

It’s just the news running out of things to scare people

#37 Caffeine Monkey on 06.06.22 at 3:59 pm

1/5 of Canadians are eating less because they’re broke, according to this CBC article. So on the plus side… this will help cure our obesity epidemic?

https://www.cbc.ca/news/business/food-cost-survey-1.6478695

#38 Shawn on 06.06.22 at 4:15 pm

Weird GDP facts

Riddle: What happens to the contribution of oil to GDP if the price of oil suddenly doubles but production remains constant?

Strange truth: Nothing. Because headline GDP is reported in “2012 chained dollars” as opposed to current dollars. And maybe this is appropriate. If oil suddenly doubles in price but the same volume is produced then no new jobs are added. GDP growth tries to track growth in economic activity while holding prices constant.

Stats Can reports GDP in current dollars only on about a three year lagged basis (last I checked) for complicated reasons.

Many reports such as Q2 2022 exports are available in both chained dollars and current dollars. Huge difference.

Annualized energy exports in chained 2012 dollars as of Q2 2022 $143 billion. In current dollars $192 billion. The difference is not (I believe) just average inflation but more of a specific inflation for energy prices.

Point is, lots of numbers float around and can be hard to interpret.

What is obvious however. Billions extra energy dollars coming in at this time any way you measure it.

#39 Sail Away on 06.06.22 at 4:15 pm

At work, we definitely are not seeing a slowdown. Granted, engineering is sort of recession-proof, but the jobs, proposals and scope increases keep coming in.

For inflation, we’ve increased all proposals generally 10%-ish, then on the other side are bumping all salaries 7% base and adding performance on top of that.

This is not an emergency, because: Costs are around 10% higher, and therefore, work is offered at 10% higher rates. The work is flowing in steadily so at this point, it’s just a base increase across the board. $10 last year means $11 today. If the work stopped, things would be different. But it hasn’t.

#40 WTF on 06.06.22 at 4:15 pm

Vancouver DT Condo Yaletown Listed 1.6M (Down 100k from a month ago)

Purchase:

-Cost to Carry with 25% DP at 4.05% 5 yr 25 yr amort =$6367
-Add Tax/Condo Fees/Insurance/lost opportunity DP 400K =$2900 PER MONTH.
-Total Cost Ownership $9267 per month.

VS RENT: exact same suite 10 floors above, $3200.

#41 What Could Go Worse? on 06.06.22 at 4:15 pm

Canadian Real Estate’s Worst Case Is A 30% Price Drop, Still Down By 2027: RBC

Canada’s largest bank is bullish on the economy but not on home prices. RBC regulatory filings reveal they see home prices making a modest decline by next year. That’s if the economy encounters no unexpected hiccups. However, the bank warns they’ve placed more weight to the downside as the outlook darkens. In the downside scenario, home prices contract as much as 30% — rolling back almost all gains since 2020.

RBC’s downside scenario shows a big contraction similar to the 90s, and a long correction. A benchmark home would see prices make a 12-month drop of 30% by April 2023. Compound annual growth averages 4.2% the following 4 years. Over the 5 years ending in April 2027, prices would be 15.8% lower.

#42 Re-Cowtown on 06.06.22 at 4:17 pm

# 23 Faron

Yes, Earth’s climate takes plenty of time to adjust to forcing. Tens to hundreds of years for temperature to respond to CO2 (with a long taper due to ocean thermal inertia) and the big ice sheets take longer yet. Unfortunately, at this point, we may have baked in meters of sea level over thousand year timescales. This will exert a lot of social pressure. Florida will be first in the US to feel it.
==========================

All you have to look at to see how serious a threat the global elites view climate change is to look where they buy real estate:

Barack Obama – Martha’s Vineyard ocean front and Hawaii ocean front.

Al Gore – Malibu

Rob Reiner – Malibu

Cher – Miami Beach

Nancy Pelosi – Florida

BLM founder – eyeballin’ a place in the Bahamas

And on it goes…. I got bored looking after a while. Like shooting fish in a barrel.

Follow the money. They’re screaming from the rooftops that they think sea level rise and climate change are crap.

And that’s all you need to know.

#43 Not a Bank on 06.06.22 at 4:26 pm

Could the recent run up in the 5yr be partially attributed to the BoC no longer buying bonds and letting them roll off?

Also, what would account for the spike to 3.25% at 2:54pm? (Marketwatch website)

#44 millmech on 06.06.22 at 4:27 pm

#29 Spilling the beans
Go to any mortgage calculator and see what you could get for 3% mortgage for TDS, then put in 8% and see what you get to spend. It works out to over 40% less money to spend ,so there you have it, when rates hit 8% you have 40% less house you can buy, so markets will adjust pricing to reflect this.

#45 jess on 06.06.22 at 4:31 pm

Suspicious Chinese Funds Should Have Raised ‘Alarm Bells’ at Canadian Banks: Experts

Print article
Published: 30 May 2022
Written by Robert Cribb (Toronto Star) and Jared Ferrie (OCCRP)

Twitter

For eight years, Chinese property developer Chen Runkai used hundreds of wire transfers to move tens of millions of dollars into accounts at Canadian banks –– a technique experts say is a hallmark of money laundering

China-Vancouver-Top
Following a Trail of Tainted Money From China Into Vancouver Real Estate

A man accused of paying bribes in one of China’s biggest-ever military corruption scandals allegedly funneled at least 114 million Canadian dollars into banks in that country before investing more than CA$32 million in luxury Vancouver real estate.

https://www.occrp.org/en/37-ccblog/ccblog/16389-suspicious-chinese-funds-should-have-raised-alarm-bells-at-canadian-banks-experts

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/cullen-commission-report-review-1.6477888

China Bans Stolen Russian Planes from Entering its Airspace

China’s civil aviation authority has banned from its airspace Airbuses and Boeings which Russia has stolen from international lessors shortly after it invaded Ukraine back in February.

https://davidgerard.co.uk/blockchain/2022/05/15/news-ust-fallout-central-african-republic-fallout-coinbase-custody-not-safe-in-bankruptcy-catalonia-and-russian-bitcoins/

#46 Sail Away on 06.06.22 at 4:33 pm

#23 Faron on 06.06.22 at 3:36 pm

Okay. Seemed hyper mundane to me. I find his need to update steerage on the minutiae of his life extremely lame and wasteful of Garth’s time.

——–

Yo bro: start your own blog and I promise to never, ever even think about going there. I’ll take it a step further and immediately forget about your existence entirely.

Just call me Mr. Solution.

fyi: I woke up around 5am today after lots of weekend exercise cutting wood and biking. Weighed in at 177 before a healthy breakfast of steel cut oats, topped with Costco dried blueberries and pecans. Mmmmm. So good.

#47 Søren Angst on 06.06.22 at 4:33 pm

#23 Faron

Herculaneum is currently 15 m above sea level. The current Mare Nostrum shore is about 750 m away.

It was buried beneath (up to 25 m) of rock. If anything, Herculaneum settled under all that weight.

More than 300 people killed by the volcano, 79 AD. mostly in a dozen stone structures next to the town’s beach where boats were stored – take note of where the trees are at the current elevation vs. the boathouses at the bottom of the photo:

http://home.moravian.edu/users/phys/mejjg01/retirement%20activities/pages/geo/149-Hercaneum.html

The famous Villa dei Papiri rendering for the times:

https://www.napolidavivere.it/2021/01/30/dopo-40-anni-riprendono-gli-scavi-nel-parco-archeologico-di-ercolano-per-unirli-a-villa-dei-papiri/

The wall up a ways from the boathouses was a sea wall, shown in the above villa rendering.

———————-

1,943 years ago.

Go to Aquilea, Ostia and other Roman towns, same story as to where the sea level was.

The Romans never chronicled about rising sea levels other than the horror of the eruption (Tacitus). Not even chronicler Strabo, that travelled the Roman Empire extensively before the eruption.

Why, whether in Canada or here is Italia, I always live in a place at least 15 m. above sea level (Pordenone is 23 m above sea level).

Woe unto those that do not heed history. Your Florida case in point.

—-

Key in 15 m on this map and explore your homes location for all you coastal dwellers in Canada *:

https://www.floodmap.net/

Ignore their 400 m BS default setting, Armageddon is 70 m:

https://www.usgs.gov/faqs/how-would-sea-level-change-if-all-glaciers-melted

*The Worlds CB’s safe as Davie Street remains intact, on an island, but intact.

#48 Linda on 06.06.22 at 4:34 pm

‘Afrika’ is obviously a poster pup for the benefits of staying active into extreme old age:)

What puzzles me is why folks who are feeling the pain of all these inflationary price increases seem to think that borrowing more is the best way to deal with the issue. I’m broke, so I’ll dig my hole even deeper? Is there some kind of naive belief that the government will somehow save those pickled in debt from themselves? I get that folks want to do stuff like travel again, but have to say I can’t feel much sympathy for those who choose to spend beyond their means for stuff they don’t actually need. Want, yes. Need, no. Maybe the idea is to party while the credit can still be had, so when they are actually bankrupt they will have all those memories of good times to keep their spirits up. Gad, what a depressing thought.

#49 jess on 06.06.22 at 4:34 pm

Hungarian Police Bust a Gang that Laundered Money via ‘Strawmen’

Print article
Published: 06 June 2022
Written by Zdravko Ljubas

https://www.occrp.org/en/daily/16403-hungarian-police-bust-a-gang-that-laundered-money-via-strawmen

Hungarian authorities disrupted a criminal organization suspected of laundering millions of euros in illicit proceeds and perpetrating fraud using administrative papers, the European Union’s police – Europol, said in a statement.

the Budapest Metropolitan Police conducted searches of 24 homes, questioned 16 suspects and arrested five. During the operation funds were seized in 32 countries across Europe, Australia and South America, according to the statement.

The investigation revealed that the criminal organization has been operational since September 2020 and that its members formed a number of companies with no meaningful economic activities and acquired other firms using strawmen.

#50 The Regulator on 06.06.22 at 4:35 pm

# 16 – TurnerNation : The west wouldn’t survive without usury. Meaning our rulers, but the people would do fine. Weren’t the Muslims demonized mercilessly following 911? Followed by Saddam, followed by Gaddafi, followed by Assad, followed by everything Russian. Where does it end? Amish hate?

#51 Lending a hand on 06.06.22 at 4:52 pm

More likely, over-leveraged homeowners and others who have lived beyond their means and borrowed from the future will experience personal recession. Their collective sins may weigh on economic activity, but are unlikely to derail it.

______________

As it should be … but regrettably, if there are enough “irresponsibles” as in 2008, they will end up taking you down with them to some extent. Remember what happens to you when you lend a hand to someone who is drowning.

To be accurate, it as not US residential real estate that caused the credit crisis, but the financing of it with bogus assets on Wall Street. – Garth

#52 Søren Angst on 06.06.22 at 4:53 pm

PS: Flood Map +15 m

Means the beach will be a leisurely 15 min walk away from my current home here in Pordenone.

Bring it on. 🏖

#53 Flip Flop and Fly on 06.06.22 at 4:58 pm

PRINCE POLO Says average price in GTA was $1.52 Million in May.

Toronto Real Estate Board says average May price was $1,212,806 That is down about $120,000 from Feb peak.

There are a lot of agents who missed their Mercedes lease payment this month. Buyer beware.

#54 Not in Gote but Wei Chi on 06.06.22 at 4:59 pm

Just informed today at work that Alberta Health Services will run out of all contrast medium in 2-3 weeks. Unbelievable that the contrast making skill wasnt transported from Shanghai to North America.

This is typical Alberta garbage. Too many stupid people in Calgary and Alberta. I often feel surrounded by idiots in Calgary.

Prayers to Jesus that I eventually escape this planet.

#55 Minutiae Men on 06.06.22 at 5:03 pm

#46 Sail Away on 06.06.22 at 4:33 pm
#23 Faron on 06.06.22 at 3:36 pm

Okay. Seemed hyper mundane to me. I find his need to update steerage on the minutiae of his life extremely lame and wasteful of Garth’s time.

——–

Yo bro: start your own blog and I promise to never, ever even think about going there. I’ll take it a step further and immediately forget about your existence entirely.

Just call me Mr. Solution.

fyi: I woke up around 5am today after lots of weekend exercise cutting wood and biking. Weighed in at 177 before a healthy breakfast of steel cut oats, topped with Costco dried blueberries and pecans. Mmmmm. So good.

____________

Oh please … please do. BOTH of you… the door is so wide open. If this pathetic blog would allow us to vote you off the island, you’d have been gone long ago. And if you could take the guy from Italy with you, whatever his name is. As a tradeoff, well keep TurnerNation, much to my chagrin.

Seriously, do you think anyone on this blog wakes up thinking how much they can’t wait to hear about how you pass your mundane days? How egotistical of you.

#56 baloney Sandwitch on 06.06.22 at 5:05 pm

So, what do you think? Will the pol’s reverse all the anti-RE measures they passed now that prices are showing serious shrinkage?

#57 jess on 06.06.22 at 5:06 pm

year-over-year business insolvencies up 33.8% in Q1
May 18, 2022
https://cairp.ca/cgi/page.cgi/_media_releases.html/Media_Releases/CAIRP_Q1_2022_Canadian_Insolvency_Statistics_

Business insolvencies continue to be artificially suppressed due to government supports. Another reason the insolvency trend appears decoupled from the current economic environment is that many company principals are choosing to walk away rather than formally winding down their business,” says Mark Rosen, Chair of the Canadian Association of Insolvency and Restructuring Professionals (CAIRP), the national voice on insolvency matters in Canada.

https://cairp.ca/cgi/page.cgi/_media_releases.html/Media_Releases/CAIRP_Q2_2021_Canadian_Insolvency_Statistics_

#58 TheDood on 06.06.22 at 5:06 pm

#48 Linda on 06.06.22 at 4:34 pm
‘Afrika’ is obviously a poster pup for the benefits of staying active into extreme old age:)

What puzzles me is why folks who are feeling the pain of all these inflationary price increases seem to think that borrowing more is the best way to deal with the issue. I’m broke, so I’ll dig my hole even deeper? Is there some kind of naive belief that the government will somehow save those pickled in debt from themselves? I get that folks want to do stuff like travel again, but have to say I can’t feel much sympathy for those who choose to spend beyond their means for stuff they don’t actually need. Want, yes. Need, no. Maybe the idea is to party while the credit can still be had, so when they are actually bankrupt they will have all those memories of good times to keep their spirits up. Gad, what a depressing thought.

________________________________

It’s just as confusing to me. The banks provide their lemming customers with all these financial tools – HELOC, Credit card, LOC, Overdraft, etc. – knowing full well how financially challenged they are and then stand back and watch the destruction. It’s laughable to think a government would bail an individual out of a financial mess of their own making.

People actually go to prison in some countries if they run up debts they can’t pay back. (debtors prison). Would never fly in Canada of course, we have human RIGHTs here after all – including the right to run up debt and declare bankruptcy!

#59 SoggyShorts on 06.06.22 at 5:08 pm

#42 Re-Cowtown on 06.06.22 at 4:17 pm
# 23 Faron

All you have to look at to see how serious a threat the global elites view climate change is to look where they buy real estate:

**************************
That’s kinda silly. Rich people can buy beachfront property despite rising sea levels… because they are rich, and can just move to another multi-million-dollar mansion whenever they want.

Today living on a beach is awesome, so if you are wealthy, why not?

E.G. the first of your claims (Obama) bought an 11 million dollar beachfront home, but will never be worried personally because that is only 15% of his networth.

#60 Facts Matter on 06.06.22 at 5:09 pm

This really isn’t rocket science. Of 400k new immigrants, many already living here for years as foreign students & workers, elderly, young children & couples living with relatives. Little demand to replace 300k+ Canadians that die each yr + Millions others moving to family homes

#61 Shawn on 06.06.22 at 5:09 pm

Why the broke keep borrowing

#48 Linda on 06.06.22 at 4:34 pm
‘Afrika’ is obviously a poster pup for the benefits of staying active into extreme old age:)

What puzzles me is why folks who are feeling the pain of all these inflationary price increases seem to think that borrowing more is the best way to deal with the issue. I’m broke, so I’ll dig my hole even deeper?

***********************************
If you and especially if your kids gotta eat (we all do) and you have no money but have a credit card with “room” left on it, you are going to use it. Guaranteed.

You might cut back but you will use that credit card to feed the kids. Count on it.

Tomorrow’s bills will always take a back seat to today’s real needs.

Same will apply to even things like paying for your kid’s hockey because you feel like a real chump if you let him down. So a lot of people will keep borrowing for non-necessities as well. Self worth and public perception and the perception of your kids is a thing.

I never got in that point but when I was briefly between jobs I felt it was still my responsibility to keep my kid in hockey.

Credit use is more a function of credit offered than self restraint.

“If you will lend it, they will come and borrow it”. Try it out with your poorer relatives if you have nay. Good luck.

By the way, credit is the absolute grease of the economy. Turn off the lending taps and a recession will be immediate.

#62 SoggyShorts on 06.06.22 at 5:15 pm

#15 Søren Angst on 06.06.22 at 3:17 pm

$20,000 per person in Credit Card Debt. $6,800 Average in 2019.
+194%
Wages are not keeping up due to Inflation. This will not end well.

****************************
20K debt, not credit card debt.

The “average” Canadian doesn’t even have a 20K CC limit.
I assume a vehicle is the next huge debt chunk after HELOCs and houses have been removed?

I’d like to see the number after that’s removed.

#63 sailedaway on 06.06.22 at 5:31 pm

#26 Bard Lmab on 06.06.22 at 3:39 pm

“Everybody wants to live in Toronto the Supreme World Class City.”

Love your sense of humor!

ever notice how Paris, London even New York don’t need to add ‘world class’ before stuff? Makes one wonder

Canadian: “Hewers of particle boards and drawers of HELOCS”

#64 Søren Angst on 06.06.22 at 5:32 pm

#38 Shawn

S they are not hard to interpret.

StatCan does that, chained $, to adjust for inflation. That way you can compare Apples in 2012 to Apples in 2022.

StatCan does let you see constant $ if you want.

Go here, for an example and then do what I recommend to view the difference.

https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/t1/tbl1/en/cv.action?pid=3610043401

1. Click Prices tab and check 2012 constant prices.
2. To avoid a cacophony of numbers, click the NAICS tab and uncheck Select All and then check Goods Producing Industries or any other but just the one.
3. Click the Customize Layout tab and set Display Prices as a row.
4. Click the Apply button.

Constant $ will start to increase with Inflation in the next months. Be more out of whack with chained $.

—————

What grates me is Seasonally Adjusted data. This is where they do “smoothing” (search Exponential Smoothing for smoothing in a simple form) which is fine but if a person wants to see the unaltered data for say, a particular month, it is an annoyance (e.g., if you want to see Seasonality during the year).

For GDP you cannot “unadjust” Seasonally Adjusted.

For Retail Trade you can.

https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/t1/tbl1/en/cv.action?pid=2010000801

Click the Adjustments tab and check Unadjusted. To contrast, go to Geography uncheck Select All leaving just Canada checked, then to contrast Unadjusted to Seasonally Adjusted, go to Customize Layout and Display Adjustments as a Row.

To view Seasonality, click the Reference Period tab and set the From date to March 2021 – span of a years worth of data. Click Apply.

Big difference between Seasonally Adjusted vs. Unadjusted.

—————-

Cdns spend in FEW MONTHS of Summer they have (the poor things). Then again Back to School and XMas (oddly Halloween too which is a surprise then again, just look at who your PM is).

Of course, as the bills roll in January…they cut back on spending, a lot.

Welcome to Humanity and Seasonal spending.

#65 Faron on 06.06.22 at 5:36 pm

#46 Sail Away on 06.06.22 at 4:33 pm
#23 Faron on 06.06.22 at 3:36 pm

Yo bro: start your own blog

Uh, methinks you should be starting the blog with all of your #bestLyfe tips ‘n tricks. Instead you use Garth as an approval proxy for your flimsy, smol man ego. How many comments a day? To what end exactly?

BTW, I like all the bro/bruh you are tossing around these days. Threatening 70+ yr. old men (nothing wrong with being 70 of course and I’m confident many 70 yr. olds could whip Sailo) and unstable mental health patients like myself. You are surprised by the kindness of teens. Yer a big fella there Sail Away. Real toughie.

#66 Faron on 06.06.22 at 5:41 pm

#59 SoggyShorts on 06.06.22 at 5:08 pm

Yep, bang on. I’ll add that insurers take this into account. Wealthy people are not going to be affected in any way that matters. If a disaster happens, they will be insured.

The real problems arise with poor nations with huge populations near sea level or who are dependent on such ports. They will have to move and history shows that migrants bring social strife.

#67 Earlybird on 06.06.22 at 5:46 pm

Lol…wage gains have been eroded for several DECADES now, as the price of everything goes up…..fixed it for you!
Hence the massive bad debt…

#68 Søren Angst on 06.06.22 at 5:49 pm

#62 SoggyShorts

No.

That paragraph begins with “Monthly credit card spending is up 17%”. Garth continues on with the per capita debt number (credit card implied, rightly or wrongly), and then he adds in total debt.

The 2 numbers are very different you will find…

Go here and figure it out for yourself that the parallel is correct.

https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/t1/tbl1/en/tv.action?pid=1110001601

#69 Faron on 06.06.22 at 5:54 pm

#42 Re-Cowtown on 06.06.22 at 4:17 pm

Barack Obama – Martha’s Vineyard ocean front and Hawaii ocean front.

Al Gore – Malibu

Rob Reiner – Malibu

Cher – Miami Beach

Nancy Pelosi – Florida

BLM founder – eyeballin’ a place in the Bahamas

Can you point out the climate scientists in the above? Thanks. Have you been to Malibu? Fire is the bigger problem. There’s also insurance. Also, the rate of rise is fairly predictable. Easy to know how long they have there (Barack’s remainjng lifetime probably). Jeez, seems complicated doesn’t it?

@Soren Angst: Italy is complex for its very active tectonic setting. This makes a “bathtub” model of sea level rise inaccurate. Also important is re-distribution of large masses like groundwater, the ice sheets and even large lava flows (small effect). Subducting plate boundaries further complicate things.

#70 Reality is stark on 06.06.22 at 6:08 pm

The impending stagflation caused solely by worthless liberal policies will undoubtedly produce a recession in 2023.
The recession will certainly increase the suicide rate.
The liberal government will pat themselves on the back for reducing housing prices.
Imagine the absurdity of liberal spending profligacy.
It’s pure idiocy
We have 12 year olds running the country.
Spending your way to prosperity like drunken sailors.

#71 Diamond Dog on 06.06.22 at 6:16 pm

There are plus’s in the Canadian markets, it’s the elephant in the room, commodities. But that’s about all that’s positive right now. Housing is in a ditch, inflation is high and the BoC is raising rates monthly raising the cost of living on the indebted. Are commodities enough? It is. Will it last? About as long as the U.S. remains out of recession.

When will the U.S. slip into recession? Some time in Q4. Watch the PMI prints. Price Manufacturer’s Index is the best monthly leading indicator from what I see. Jobs is the lagging indicator, behind them all. We should not be focused on jobs or lagging indicators, we should be focused on leading indicators such as PMI.

If we think commodities are safe, we are mistaken. They are the last to fall but they will fall. I don’t see commodities falling off a cliff, (not with inflation running so high and the Fed having such a late start to address it) but I do see valuations softening sooner than Q1 of 2023. Energy is the bright light but even there, there’s such a thing as softening prices. Don’t get comfortable with metals. Don’t rely on Ag commodities being strong forever either. Beware of recency bias.

As for bonds, yields are going up not because economies are doing great, but because CB’s across the world are raising rates in response to the rise in commodities, priced in U.S. dollars. Does anyone expect the 10 year U.S. GG bond to remain at 3% with 4 half percent rate hikes through to September? I sure don’t. 10 year GG bonds could be easily at 5% by September. Is this an indication of a strong economy? No… just an indication that the Fed is finally off it’s duff in response to high inflation.

The Fed looks to be in every way, headed toward a controlled recession, market demolition, whatever you want to call it, in response to high inflation. It’s about the only thing they can do really, but these aren’t the Volcker days when U.S. Federal debt was in the 30’s, it’s 2022 with U.S. Fed debt to GDP at 125% and growing. When Canada combines Fed debt with the provinces, both taxed on income, we are at 120%, but I wander. Debt service will come into play here, is my point. What follows is higher taxes and less spending. (if we’re smart)

These are different economic times with the same inflationary problems of the 70’s, triggered by a rapid increase in the money supply (2020+, it really started in late 2019), an 18 month to 2 year delay in seeing it hit the system in the form of inflation, and an 18 month to 2 year delay in reversing it. There really is only one way to deal with high inflation… stop printing so much money.

We should know what this means. It means tighter credit. It means zombie corps (some 30% of the Russel) going broke. It means trimming the fat. It means a major reset in terms of how income is generated and how debt is managed. Just look at junk bonds, for example. Back in March, you could borrow in the 4’s. Today, it’s the 7’s. In 4 months… this is CCC stuff… readers get the point. Then there’s the question of how solid AAA’s are. (longer time horizons for fails, but one has to ask)

Where am I going with this, the big risk to the system that CB’s will have to address and lower rates in a high inflation environment which… no one can spin it as positive, the big risk is credit freezes up. This is not imminent, but the potential for it is not that far off. This is the second worse case scenario, but it’s still bad. (the worst case is a fiscal commodity crisis crashing currencies into hyperinflation, we are seeing some of this in EM’s now, but the earliest risk of this in North America I would think is 2024)

The fact that commodities are priced in U.S. dollars throughout the world has caused a world wide inflationary phenomenon. It’s not just CB’s elsewhere borrowing their brains out. Yields are going up world wide as a consequence. This is not a positive economic indicator, but the consequence of competition for cash. We should be mindful of this in the bond markets as yields continue to go up.

Just because yields go up does not in any way mean things are fine because they aren’t. Why? High inflation. Inflation has changed everything. There is only one way to address it (money supply, stop increasing it). If you can’t create new money in the fight against inflation, how can you get your hands on it? Higher yields. This doesn’t mean good times, it means survival of the fittest.

#72 BillinBC on 06.06.22 at 6:18 pm

#46 Sail Away on 06.06.22 at 4:33 pm
#23 Faron on 06.06.22 at 3:36 pm
#55 Minutiae Men
“Oh please … please do. BOTH of you… the door is so wide open. If this pathetic blog would allow us to vote you off the island, you’d have been gone long ago. And if you could take the guy from Italy with you, whatever his name is. As a tradeoff, well keep TurnerNation, much to my chagrin.

Seriously, do you think anyone on this blog wakes up thinking how much they can’t wait to hear about how you pass your mundane days? How egotistical of you.”

Well said Minutiae

#73 the Jaguar on 06.06.22 at 6:20 pm

@#55 Minutiae Men on 06.06.22 at 5:03 pm++

I cannot resist. This phrase that you have used….”If this pathetic blog would allow us to vote you off the island”, even if meant with a touch of humour, will put you directly in the gun sights of one who sees no humour in the remark and will never stop going on about it. And on and on and on, lol. Old grudges never die, nor do old goblins fade away. They just keep coming at you with their beef jerky recipes.

#74 CL on 06.06.22 at 6:25 pm

Gas jumped to 191.9 in Cowtown today. The current and increasing oil/energy crisis was totally predictable and has been building for over a decade. Without new developments and reserve replacement it was inevitable and was a question of when. The pandemic re-opening was the catalyst.

The only way for the Fed to get this “soft” landing is to….well…there isn’t a way. The energy crisis can’t and won’t be fixed for a long long time if at all and CB’s can’t control oil or fight dumb environmental policies other than through demand destruction and now! However, when I am out driving, traffic is heavy and nobody is slowing down but I do think, by the way people are driving, is people are really pissed off. Pandemic, dumb policies, and now gas prices (everything prices since the economy/world is energy) are the straws that broke……

I just don’t see the CB’s getting to the rates you state. Possible I suppose but I think the odds are against it. Recession (I actually hope it happens) and QE will occur before they get there. They’re probably scared because if a recession did hit they don’t have any fire power in rates.

Scary times actually but nothing is new under the sun. It’s all happened before.

#75 ogdoad on 06.06.22 at 6:35 pm

little blues and hugs, boys, girls and others. If ya ain’t get’n any then what’s the point? A happy sod with a stud of a S/O beats the pants off a lonely sucker with a mansion/tesla any day.

I can help – [email protected]. Privacy guaranteed.

Oh ya, rates. Ummm….bad for housing prices? That sucks…guess I’ll have to hunker down with a 10 year supply of you-know-what. It’ll be a pleasure waiting for the next economic disaster…feeling it already…time for distraction.

Hugs!

Og

#76 Doug t on 06.06.22 at 6:46 pm

If the interwebbie was knocked out for a week would we at least have a world economic reset ? Or just chaos?

#77 Concerned Citizen on 06.06.22 at 7:07 pm

“Fifth, CBs are data-driven”

Love ya Garth, but what a load of bunk. Central banks the world over lived with inflation double – or more – its target rate for more than a year before even lifting a finger. The ECB hasn’t raised rates once and continues to print money, while European CPI flirts with double digits.

We have a clear case of institutional failure. Love him or hate him, Polievre is the only politician calling a spade a spade in this regard. The boomer central bankers are looking after boomer asset portfolios (homes, stocks), and actively and enthusiastically throwing everyone else under the bus. No one in authority has done – or is capable of doing – any long term thinking. The long-term implications of this bubble policy will not be positive.

Pepe is playing you. – Garth

#78 Sail Away on 06.06.22 at 7:08 pm

Beware the bear… in Saskatchewan:

https://www.msn.com/en-ca/video/other/man-uses-bear-spray-in-viral-video-hear-what-he-had-to-say-about-it/vi-AAY7g7z?bk=1&bk=1&ocid=msedgntp&cvid=7fb5494ef9564beab4b266dc82dbb657

#79 TurnerNation on 06.06.22 at 7:11 pm

Normal? OH YAH guys, any day now!
Did you think our global leaders were just fooling around? What did you think 2020 was training for?

.Monkeypox warnings ‘went ignored,’ and now world must brace for more outbreaks: scientists (cbc.ca)

—-

https://twitter.com/jenniferatntd/status/1533837638385401858?
Jennifer Zeng @jenniferatntd
Digital control at a subway station in #Shanghai. Everyone has to scan your #HealthCode to get in, and your code must be green. You are not watching a science fiction movie.

https://twitter.com/jenniferatntd/status/1533080163185004544
Now everyone in #CCPChina is monitored and controlled by this so called Health Code. If your code turns yellow or red, you are doomed. It can turn yellow if you stay in the same 800mx800m square with a #Covid positive person for more 10 minutes. #CCP tracks all your movements.


MSM is waking up this narrative. It’s PERMANENT.

https://harpers.org/archive/2022/06/permanent-pandemic-will-covid-controls-keep-controlling-us/

Not quite a digital native, I am old enough to feel that this plight of ours—filling out onscreen forms, recovering lost passwords, scanning QR codes, downloading each new version of our government-approved coronavirus tracker or vaccine passport, always waiting for the little buzz of some notification or authorization or other—represents more than just an onerous imposition. It has been a foretaste of a new mode of existence.

#80 Alex on 06.06.22 at 7:15 pm

Demand is definitely slowing down. A few months ago houses were selling under 10 days in most of Toronto’s neighbourhoods. Just look now how fast things have changed, so many neighbourhoods are selling much slower https://home.ca/toronto-real-estate/neighbourhoods

But hoods like Danforth are still selling 100% of inventory under 10 days probably because that’s one of the areas where you can still buy a house for 1M-1.2M. For those willing to wait I think prices will come down a lot more.

#81 Ustabe on 06.06.22 at 7:17 pm

Today I finally manged to pick up the rubber band I dropped under my desk a few weeks ago. Its a nice feeling of accomplishment, one doesn’t often get those types of moments in retirement.

Then my nap was interrupted by a loud thump at the front door. I got to the door too late to see who it was but they left behind a plastic pail half full of fresh, still alive even, local spot prawns. Life is good.

I feel so sorry for Connor McDavid…he deserves a team that can support him. They are almost there, after years of poor goalies, poor defense, I wonder if he sticks around long enough tho? If I were he I’d be finding a team that is ready to contend, lord knows he is.

Time to go and flip my beef brisket flat which is brining in preparation to become pastrami on one of my multiple smokers.

If anyone wants that recipe/method let me know, after all for some this is just a popularity contest, a gang like in middle school, a clique like at the club you spend fees on to belong every year.

Nothing like home made. The commercial stuff is seasoned and smoked under steam pressure giving a soggy mouthfeel to the meat. Not at all like the deli’s along North Main in Winnipeg.

#82 Quintilian on 06.06.22 at 7:18 pm

There may, or may not be a recession in technical terms, but there cannot be such a high level of indebtedness and a significant erosion of consumer purchasing power not accompanied eventually by a major slowdown.

Sure, Canadian Banks are a government sanctioned oligopolies, and the sector will not be bruised up as badly as some other sectors, but staying in cash until the storm clears by about Fall 2022 is the best strategy.

Of course the curmudgeon gamblers won’t agree, but what would one expect from a demographic that thinks real estate can’t crash, because Canada is the best place on earth.

#83 Midnight’s on 06.06.22 at 7:25 pm

The average detached house in Pickering is now down 21% from the February peak, so anyone who bought then with 10% or 15% down has lost all their equity and is under water.

Why do you overhype the price fluctuation in housing and under hype the price fluctuation in stocks. Is it because you make your bread and butter on selling stock and not housing? Having balance is an art. If you buy anything overvalued and it’s momentum falls, yes you go into negative territory. One can’t live in a stock and one can’t even come close to the leverage play you can do with a house.

I don’t sell stocks or any other asset. Houses were grossly inflated and the warning was raised here. Leverage is a disaster in a declining market. Live or die by it. But stop moaning. – Garth

#84 Grunt on 06.06.22 at 7:26 pm

That’s interesting Garth much american media is still hard R.

Can we please be rid of the crown. Namely the GG and LGs. And a sweet reduction in senate size from 105 to 26.

I fail to see why we need 79 more unelected senators than the US and why Ontario needs 22 of them.

#85 Scrooge McDuck on 06.06.22 at 7:33 pm

Toronto is a world class city! Where else would Greater Fools be willing to pay $500 a month to share the laundry room with four other people? Toronto is great for the millionaires in Bridle Path!

#86 AK on 06.06.22 at 7:43 pm

I saw this on Twitter. I wonder where these figures are available?

==
“There are more than 100k empty detached home in GTA…close to 200k including condos and semis.”
==

Fiction. – Garth

#87 Dr V on 06.06.22 at 7:43 pm

63 sailedaway

“Hewers of particle boards and drawers of HELOCS”
——————————————–

Good one!

Now can you help us with the “Village People” reference?

#88 AK on 06.06.22 at 7:48 pm

“Fourth. If investors thought we were headed for a recession, bond prices would be rising (they are falling)”
===============================

Many short sellers and gamblers continue to call for a recession. With the unemployment rate at 3.5%, nowhere In the history books shows that a recession occurred.

#89 Dr V on 06.06.22 at 7:51 pm

82 Q

“Sure, Canadian Banks are a government sanctioned oligopolies, and the sector will not be bruised up as badly as some other sectors, but staying in cash until the storm clears by about Fall 2022 is the best strategy.”
———————————————

Good afternoon/evening Q. Was reading an opinion from
some of the US banking execs where they figured the market transition to higher rates could take another 24
months.

Another good correction (or greater) form Cdn bank stocks would be fine with me. The divvys are very low
risk, and I still have cash to load up some more, just not
sure how much without incurring tax.

Just make it a priority to get yourself some.

#90 Scary Stuff on 06.06.22 at 7:57 pm

Two things really concern me about what this latest column reveals. First, referring to a normal distribution, the average of 20,000 dollars of non-mortgage debt means half the population has less and half has more. So on the right hand side of a Gaussian distribution, at multiple standard deviations, there are people out there with high five and low six figure debt (not mortgage) with possibly nothing really backing it, or perhaps a line of credit on an asset that is losing value, is most people’s sole asset, and is providing a roof over their heads. That sucks.

The second thing that concerns me is the division implicit in the population represented by the Gaussian distribution. The people on the left hand side of the curve have much less debt versus the debt pigs on the right; if we think about these two populations, there is a huge chasm opening up between the have-debt types and the more solvent, low debt types. As if we didn’t have enough factors dividing people into smaller and smaller groups, now we have one more that will surely spawn envy and loathing.

In the not too distant future, I think we are going to see more mental illness, more depression, more broken families, and just general tough times for a fairly significant part of the population. We are already starting to see it, as our esteemed blog host noted (perhaps jokingly but…) in the sort of angst and hostility seen in the comments section.

Fun times…

#91 The Regulator on 06.06.22 at 8:04 pm

# 54 – Not in Got bla bla bla : You’re incredibly misinformed, or deliberately making a feeble attempt to smear all Albertans. This is a WORLDWIDE shortage. Please, please leave your bubble and embrace reality. Stupid Albertans all agree : You’re an a*****e.

#92 The Regulator on 06.06.22 at 8:07 pm

# 54 – Not in Goat : Prayers to Jesus he takes you up on the offer.

#93 VladTor on 06.06.22 at 8:08 pm

Garth…In Canada the jobs report is also printed on Friday. The number should be higher…

************

No doubt the number will be higher. Now hiring a lot of seasonal workers in agriculture and even in Toronto hiring temporary workers in the parks. Should to speak of an increase only by comparing the change in full time employment. More precisely, it is better to see changes by categories. And so just the fact of an increase in employment is like talking about the average temperature of all people (sick and healthy) in the hospital. Also would be good to see changing in amount of people who apply for social assistance – this is on my opinion one of the best indicators of unemployment.

#94 Bob on 06.06.22 at 8:12 pm

The Bank of Canada does not set rates in Canada. The United States Federal Reserve does. That is the truth.

They are willing to completely destroy stock wealth to get inflation under control. They will stop only if the financial plumbing seizes up.

Equity markets have historically done fine during tightening cycles. – Garth

#95 Cowtown Cowboy on 06.06.22 at 8:18 pm

Gotta re-up the mortgage in a few weeks…what sayest thou O Bearded Guru??? Fixed or Variable? I’m hearing that Variable is the way to go…

#96 Faron on 06.06.22 at 8:37 pm

#8 Dr V on 06.06.22 at 3:07 pm

I’m not getting the Village People reference. Disco? YMCA? Cowboy? Anybody? Thanks

#35 OK, Doomer on 06.06.22 at 3:57 pm

????????????

I must not be that deep. That one blew right by me…

Gonna guess “out” as in CBs are going all-out. The Village People were very “out” of the closet. I’d love to get a glimpse of Garth’s thesaurus.

#97 Faron on 06.06.22 at 8:50 pm

#81 Ustabe on 06.06.22 at 7:17 pm

Hey Ustabe, thanks for detailing your day to the utter delight of the masses who read steerage. I particularly like how you explained the rubber band rescue that puts you a notch above mere mortals. It seems that you have caught on to the real reason Garth has a comments section. It’s important that we all share in the blueberry munching and rubber band picking that each and every blogperson engages in 24/7/365. Because this is such a powerful opportunity to enlighten our peers, I would like to relay some of the really amazing/cool things that I did today because today was a big day for me.

At the grocery store there was a discount on the 710,000mg box of Diamond Shreddies. I really like Diamond Shreddies because they keep me regular, taste great, and sog perfectly in my preferred milk-alternative — almond(!). Unfortunately, the shop was out of the regular kind of Diamond Shreddies that I prefer. So, it’s crazy, but I went out on a limb and got the Honey Diamond Shreddies.

Earlier in the day I was feeling kind of hungry, so I ate a sandwich that I had brought along just in case lunch should happen and I in the off chance that I started to feel hungry. I mean, I’m pretty smart, but even I was impressed that I had the forethought to plan that lunch would roll around and that I may desire food in or around that time. But, to be fair, I actually packed two sandwiches so that I could eat one at 11AM and another during proper lunch. That’s how I roll.

This morning I patted Randall on the head seven times and gave him two gentle head butts and rubbed his chin flops 16 times on each side. Then I made oatmeal and put raisins and bananas in it and a pad of butter knowing that that first sandwich was a long ways off! Butter is yellow and salty (if you get the salted kind) and greasy!

I look forward to filling you all in tomorrow in hopes that I too can be an interesting person. I’ll let you know how the Honey Diamond Shreddies tasted. Cool, right?

#98 Faron on 06.06.22 at 8:53 pm

#73 the Jaguar on 06.06.22 at 6:20 pm

@#55 Minutiae Men on 06.06.22 at 5:03 pm++

I cannot resist. This phrase that you have used….”If this pathetic blog would allow us to vote you off the island”, even if meant with a touch of humour, will put you directly in the gun sights of one who sees no humour in the remark and will never stop going on about it.

I know, right? It’s hilarious how serious that person is. Cracks me up anyway.

#99 Satori on 06.06.22 at 9:03 pm

#32 WTF on 06.06.22 at 3:52 pm
When one can rent for almost third of the price to purchase a comparable in DT Van, Add in the various taxes to purchase/sell. Killer financially.

Price to Rent and Income are soo out if whack in this city it will take a tsunami of epic proportions to normalize.

Zillow.ca starting to look like it has the measles. Listings bloat. Panic ensues. Blame game commences shortly.
———————-
You mean the ground level suite with crack and pot smoke wafing in your window, and homeless 3am psychotic episodes or car alarms – over owning.

What you can ‘affordably’ rent in Vancouver is scuzzy and gross. There is a reason 3 people or families of 4 living in a one bedroom…. and sadly, it really is bad. Even if you rent. That is the truth of it, don’t make people think renting a glorious one bedroom with a view, above ground level is ‘more affordable’ because it is not. T

he Entire City is beyond reasonable – renting or owning.

Renting in YVR is a mortgage payment elsewhere, so move. Simple solution.

#100 Nonplused on 06.06.22 at 9:15 pm

I don’t know if we need 1.5 million new homes but we still need more new homes. Population growth demands it. But this was not the cause of the bubble. A shortage of houses (or any other commodity) should cause prices to rise until produces (home builders in this case) are incentivized to increase production. But we should be looking at 10, 20, maybe 50% increases in profit margin, which is a small percentage of the overall cost, not runaway increases that do not seem to end. That was speculation fueled by cheap money.

Anyway if the economy is strong and growing then housing demand should remain. Just not at the absurd prices seen in YYZ and YVR. YYC probably won’t see a huge correction because it never went as crazy and the new home construction remained fairly robust with houses and condos popping up everywhere. Will there be downward pressure on house prices in YYC? Probably. But I doubt you’ll loose $100,000 on a $500,000 house. $500,000 can still get you a brand new house with a 1-1/2 car garage, a bonus room, and a wee bitty deck and yard for your wee bitty dog, only 30-40 minutes from downtown in rush hour. (Assuming rush hour returns.) Lots of units can be had for less matching income to availability.

#101 Linda on 06.06.22 at 9:20 pm

#61 ‘Shawn’ – using credit for stuff one actually needs – like food for the children – isn’t what puzzled me. Though I’d say I’d be looking really hard at what options I had before using a credit card to buy the necessities of life with. 19.99% to 22.99% interest on those purchases makes the grocery bill way too high, unless of course one can pay the outstanding balance in full every month, thus avoiding paying interest. Which these folks apparently can’t do. As for hockey, time to swallow the pride & tell the child, sorry honey, can’t afford it. Ditto any other extracurricular activities that aren’t free. Yes, the child misses out on hockey etc. Better that than taking said child to the nearest homeless shelter due to spending $ one didn’t have & losing the house, no? Or being unable to pay rent & being evicted for those who aren’t homeowners.

That having been said, both you & ‘TheDood’ are correct in that most will rather spend what they don’t have & justify it rather than face reality of their own free will. More like dragged into it, kicking, screaming ‘it isn’t FAIR!!!’ & blaming anything & anyone other than their own decisions for having ended up in said sad situation.

#102 yvr_lurker on 06.06.22 at 9:25 pm

People who over-leveraged to buy rental properties are going to now feel the pain. If you keep your job and marriage, who cares in the short term whether your house goes up or down by a few hundred K. In the long term, you will be fine… just don’t be too close to the edge of the cliff or lose your job to have to sell or be under water at renewal time.

We should all feel thankful in BC that we do not rely on Lake Mead or Lake Powell for our water supply. My prediction is that within a few years it will be clear to everyone that those who rely on this (given climate change) are fuc**k. Las Vegas, Phoenix, Tuscon, parts of California… are in for a world of hurt. So when we get 30mm of rain in June in Vancouver, be thankful…

#103 Stone on 06.06.22 at 9:51 pm

#83 Midnight’s on 06.06.22 at 7:25 pm
The average detached house in Pickering is now down 21% from the February peak, so anyone who bought then with 10% or 15% down has lost all their equity and is under water.

Why do you overhype the price fluctuation in housing and under hype the price fluctuation in stocks. Is it because you make your bread and butter on selling stock and not housing? Having balance is an art. If you buy anything overvalued and it’s momentum falls, yes you go into negative territory. One can’t live in a stock and one can’t even come close to the leverage play you can do with a house.

I don’t sell stocks or any other asset. Houses were grossly inflated and the warning was raised here. Leverage is a disaster in a declining market. Live or die by it. But stop moaning. – Garth

———

Garth’s blog is free. His advice is free. He advocates balance and diversification. And if you mainly own stocks that form part of ETFs within a B&D portfolio, you can live a very comfortable life without requiring any leverage from the dividends received and some return of capital/capital gains. Based on my own experience, investing in a B&D eliminates this fluctuation in the stock market you seem to be focused on. I do a comparison of 13 other comparable portfolios against my own and pretty much none of them fluctuate widely.

https://www.fomotina.com/is-your-investment-portfolio-competitive/

#104 Re-Cowtown on 06.06.22 at 10:00 pm

Hi Faron, looks like you agree that they all think climate change is crap based on their choice of real estate. Whether it’s fires or floods, clearly none of them believe it.

As to none of them being scientists, you are correct. They are far more dangerous. They are ill informed math challenged ideologues. Exactly the ones who should not have Twitter accounts.

#105 DON on 06.06.22 at 10:06 pm

Tensions are on the rise that is for sure.

Compounded by the debt people have taken on.

Live within your means or deal with the consequences.

#106 Doug t on 06.06.22 at 10:06 pm

#102 yer lurker

True but sadly when the U.S.A decides its time they will take as much as they want from the Great Lakes and who’s going to stop them

#107 Sail Away on 06.06.22 at 10:07 pm

#23 Faron on 06.06.22 at 3:36 pm
#34 Faron on 06.06.22 at 3:55 pm
#65 Faron on 06.06.22 at 5:36 pm

How many comments a day?

#66 Faron on 06.06.22 at 5:41 pm
#69 Faron on 06.06.22 at 5:54 pm
#95 Faron on 06.06.22 at 8:37 pm
#96 Faron on 06.06.22 at 8:50 pm
#97 Faron on 06.06.22 at 8:53 pm

———

In answer to your question: it looks like three comments for me today. Why do you ask, O prolific one?

#108 Faron on 06.06.22 at 10:07 pm

#104 Re-Cowtown on 06.06.22 at 10:00 pm

Hi Faron, looks like you agree that they all think climate change is crap based on their choice of real estate. Whether it’s fires or floods, clearly none of them believe it.

Nope, I pointed out several ways that your inference is completely faulty.

Another fun fact? I know that climate change is a serious problem, yet I still drive a car from time to time and eat meat now and then knowing that such is damaging to my cause. Does that make me a hypocrite? no. It’s the system I live in. If I had more say in it, I would devise a differing system that would make me less dependent on some of those things (better transit for example; the meat eating is indefensible unfortunately). I’m not 100% responsible for the system I live in, just as Obama isn’t 100% responsible for living perfectly in it. Should he have made choices that better align with his espoused values? probably. Alas.

#109 Cici on 06.06.22 at 10:08 pm

#8 Dr V on 06.06.22 at 3:07 pm
I’m not getting the Village People reference. Disco? YMCA? Cowboy? Anybody? Thanks

______________________________________________

His reference was to rates going all “Village-People”… in other words, “high” as stoned roses!

#110 Reynolds753 on 06.06.22 at 10:13 pm

#46 Sail Away on 06.06.22 at 4:33 pm
#23 Faron on 06.06.22 at 3:36 pm

#55 Minutiae Men

Oh please … please do. BOTH of you… the door is so wide open. If this pathetic blog would allow us to vote you off the island, you’d have been gone long ago. And if you could take the guy from Italy with you, whatever his name is. As a tradeoff, well keep TurnerNation, much to my chagrin.

Seriously, do you think anyone on this blog wakes up thinking how much they can’t wait to hear about how you pass your mundane days? How egotistical of you.
——————————————————————

Minutiae Men: thank you for your comment. Sail Away and Faron are a very tiresome pair when they exchange less than pleasantries. Perhaps they can exchange e-mail addresses and make their comments to each other without the rest of us having to read the excessive drivel that these two generate.

Yes, we shall have to keep TurnerNation in exchange for this duo leaving us alone and that says a bunch.

#111 Dr V on 06.06.22 at 10:16 pm

81 Ustabe – I’ll give that a 7. Missing that last bit of aloofness.

97 Faron – a 9 for you. Woulda been a 10 if it was multi-grain cheerios!

#112 Underbrush86 on 06.06.22 at 10:29 pm

@Tom from Mississauga

>The 1 year chart on S&P 500 is a glaring head and shoulders

Tea leaves and the orbit of planet Jupiter do not dictate stock market behaviour, and neither does “drawing cartoon lines over charts” otherwise known as Technical Analysis.

#113 JPN on 06.06.22 at 10:38 pm

This is HILARIOUS .. The few Kelowna haters .. I’m flattered so many just can’t wait for the “crash” many of whom will want to move here as soon as it does.. Look.. this is a great place to live .. period .. drugs .. ? Sure .. and all of you that live in glass houses are the first to throw stones .. “Spoiler Alert” it’s everywhere.. My advice .. don’t move here .. Hell .. don’t even vacation here, we’re good !

I’ll say this with confidence.. there’s no better place than the Okanagan.. (bring it….)

#114 Faron on 06.06.22 at 10:44 pm

#111 Dr V on 06.06.22 at 10:16 pm

81 Ustabe – I’ll give that a 7. Missing that last bit of aloofness.

97 Faron – a 9 for you. Woulda been a 10 if it was multi-grain cheerios!

Thanks. I think Ustabe deserves better ratings for pioneering the genre. Re multi grain cheerios: super colon blow would be better for those who recall the Phil Hartman days of SNL.

#107 Sail Away on 06.06.22 at 10:07 pm

That’s what you call ignoring me? I like it!

But, of course, you are being intellectually dishonest. Would you like me to post the number of comments you’ve made per year or month vs mine so that we may correct this problem with facts? I recall 3:2 being the applicable ratio. Just a quick linux command…

#110 Reynolds753 on 06.06.22 at 10:13 pm

Perhaps they can exchange e-mail addresses.

Tried that by sending out an anonymous address and directions to set up their own to establish an anonymous channel. No-one took me up on it because 1) they were irrationally afraid and 2) they don’t want to actually argue ideas, facts or fight unless it’s in front of Garth’s approving eyes.

Garth is the real cool kid in the room. When he’s absent, chatter fades to pleasantries about the weather and eyes turn down to navels and steerage logs off. Remember the time Garth pulled back from comment moderating and blog posting? Notice how on weekends the comments drop off? It’s a fascinating experiment in sucking up to teacher.

#115 Uncorrelated to bonds/stocks on 06.06.22 at 10:49 pm

“ Fourth. If investors thought we were headed for a recession, bond prices would be rising (they are falling) as money flowed into the safe haven of government and investment-grade debt. But that’s not happening. And equity markets, while volatile, haven’t been selling off lately. So draw your own conclusions. (Mine are that you’d be wise to shift assets from real estate to financials.)”

My conclusion is that bonds are not acting like a haven because that is what happens when interest rates are very low. (Which they are now even if increasing). If a recession hits today good luck with bonds offering counterbalance to the falling stocks. For a historical yet recent example look at how Europeans bonds performed when Covid hit.

I also think the Central Banks are going to hit the neutral rate and inflation is going to be rampant. This is a moment when shit hits the fan. For all the talk about CBs being independent I bet they won’t do what’s needed to tame inflation because of political pressure.

As for my conclusion, every portfolio needs asset classes uncorrelated to stocks and bonds. I’ve had a managed futures overlay for a while and I am loving it. (It is actually very easy to implement with ETFs). For example NTSE, NTSX, NTSI and DBMF.

“ Six, all of the above is making people pissy and doubtful (look at the comment section lately), believing because their personal finances suck that we must be hurtling into recession and bear market chaos.”

my personal finances do not suck. I think a recession is in the cards for many reasons but my finances is not one. I think many a few share this view. I would point out an interesting data point: in nominal terms a 60/40 has posted yearly negative returns only twice. We’ll see what the rest of the year brings. For sure we are well below water both in nominal and SPECIALLY in real terms.

#116 Faron on 06.06.22 at 10:52 pm

#112 Underbrush86 on 06.06.22 at 10:29 pm

@Tom from Mississauga

>The 1 year chart on S&P 500 is a glaring head and shoulders

Tea leaves and the orbit of planet Jupiter do not dictate stock market behaviour, and neither does “drawing cartoon lines over charts” otherwise known as Technical Analysis.

Wow, I got roasted for that one when I dismissed the “golden cross” coming out of the COVID bottom way back when I was a wee thing.

The S&P’s head and shoulders has a neckline at about 4250. The intervening top was 4800, a difference of 550. 4250 – 550 is 3700. S&P dropped to 3800. Anyone who shorted based on that formation could have walked off with 450 points or about 10% if they covered “early”. That’s a win IMO.

#117 Midnight’s on 06.06.22 at 11:06 pm

BANNED

#118 WTF on 06.06.22 at 11:08 pm

#99 “You mean the ground level suite with crack and pot smoke wafing in your window, and homeless 3am psychotic episodes or car alarms – over owning.

What you can ‘affordably’ rent in Vancouver is scuzzy and gross. There is a reason 3 people or families of 4 living in a one bedroom…. and sadly, it really is bad. Even if you rent. That is the truth of it, don’t make people think renting a glorious one bedroom with a view, above ground level is ‘more affordable’ because it is not. The Entire City is beyond reasonable – renting or owning.

Renting in YVR is a mortgage payment elsewhere, so move. Simple solution.

—————————————————————– No, I provided specifics #40. Same building, same floor layout, view, location. One to purchase, one to rent. I wouldn’t buy at that valuation . Should be interesting what the future brings.

No complaints renting and living here thanks.

#119 Satori on 06.06.22 at 11:13 pm

#55 Minutiae Men on 06.06.22 at 5:03 pm#46 Sail Away on 06.06.22 at 4:33 pm
#23 Faron on 06.06.22 at 3:36 pm

Okay. Seemed hyper mundane to me. I find his need to update steerage on the minutiae of his life extremely lame and wasteful of Garth’s time.

——–

Yo bro: start your own blog and I promise to never, ever even think about going there. I’ll take it a step further and immediately forget about your existence entirely.

Just call me Mr. Solution.

fyi: I woke up around 5am today after lots of weekend exercise cutting wood and biking. Weighed in at 177 before a healthy breakfast of steel cut oats, topped with Costco dried blueberries and pecans. Mmmmm. So good.

____________

Oh please … please do. BOTH of you… the door is so wide open. If this pathetic blog would allow us to vote you off the island, you’d have been gone long ago. And if you could take the guy from Italy with you, whatever his name is. As a tradeoff, well keep TurnerNation, much to my chagrin.

Seriously, do you think anyone on this blog wakes up thinking how much they can’t wait to hear about how you pass your mundane days? How egotistical of you.

———————————–

Amen.

Exchange emails and then GET a room already!!! This isn’t a dating site!

#120 Please on 06.06.22 at 11:14 pm

“ Equity markets have historically done fine during tightening cycles. – Garth”

tightening cycles tend to end recessions. Nice table in the link below showing it.

https://www.capitaleconomics.com/blog/damned-if-they-dont-central-bank-tightening-risks-recession-but-inaction-would-be-worse/

A recession with 3% US unemployment? Think again. – Garth

#121 Satori on 06.06.22 at 11:16 pm

#110 Reynolds753 on 06.06.22 at 10:13 pm
#46 Sail Away on 06.06.22 at 4:33 pm
#23 Faron on 06.06.22 at 3:36 pm

#55 Minutiae Men

Oh please … please do. BOTH of you… the door is so wide open. If this pathetic blog would allow us to vote you off the island, you’d have been gone long ago. And if you could take the guy from Italy with you, whatever his name is. As a tradeoff, well keep TurnerNation, much to my chagrin.

Seriously, do you think anyone on this blog wakes up thinking how much they can’t wait to hear about how you pass your mundane days? How egotistical of you.
——————————————————————

Minutiae Men: thank you for your comment. Sail Away and Faron are a very tiresome pair when they exchange less than pleasantries. Perhaps they can exchange e-mail addresses and make their comments to each other without the rest of us having to read the excessive drivel that these two generate.

Yes, we shall have to keep TurnerNation in exchange for this duo leaving us alone and that says a bunch.

——————————

Ditto that! Well said

#122 Michael in-north-york on 06.06.22 at 11:23 pm

#30 The Regulator on 06.05.22 at 2:12 pm

“Let us look at the facts :
The world produces 800 million tons of wheat/year.
Ukraine produces 20 million tons/year, or 2.5%”

https://www.atlasbig.com/en-ca/countries-by-wheat-production

Ukraine produces 26 million tons/year, or 3%. But its share in global wheat exports is 9% :

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-61583492

Furthermore, Ukraine accounts for 16% of global maize exports, and 42% of sonflower oil.

Losing so much with so little warning, surely can destabilize the markets.

“What is stopping Ukraine from exporting their wheat through Romania, or Hungary, or Poland, or Belarus? BTW, they’re already doing it.”

They are doing it, but not on the scale required to substitute the shipments by sea. Railroads do not have the required capacity.

“Russia produces 25% of the worlds’ potash fertilizer. Add Belarusian potash and the figure is 45%. All sanctioned. Natural gas is used to make fertilizer, and E.U. plants are shutting down due to unprofitability. Who is really causing the coming food crisis?”

Even if fertilizer is in short supply, that can only affect the future harvest, and won’t be felt until the fall. The immediate crisis is caused by the sea blockade, that prevents the last fall’s harvest from being shipped.

#123 Fats Oh! on 06.06.22 at 11:24 pm

#37 Caffeine Monkey on 06.06.22 at 3:59 pm

1/5 of Canadians are eating less because they’re broke, according to this CBC article. So on the plus side… this will help cure our obesity epidemic?

https://www.cbc.ca/news/business/food-cost-survey-1.6478695

You really think that the 1/5 that they refer to are the obese people?

I can assure come inflation or recession, the obese will continue to fill their cake holes. It’s what they do … they are addicted .. it is a disease.

#124 Beth on 06.06.22 at 11:37 pm

Oh yes, I agree with you Renoylds!!!

SO NOT interested in Faron’s cheap penny pinching, mileage calculations, cheap arguments with anyone, and what he is eating on the daily and just so you know Faron this isn’t a “personally-bored-out-of-my-mind I think I will put my verbal refuge on the Greater Fool site”. Why not get a job Faron, then you really can buy a better car….novel idea, I know, must be mind blowing for you. And better than waiting for $100 dollar houses to arise to your capacity.

#125 Magic marker on 06.06.22 at 11:39 pm

To be accurate, it as not US residential real estate that caused the credit crisis, but the financing of it with bogus assets on Wall Street. – Garth

♡♡♡♡

And that asset was US residential real estate. The MBS were a security ( some will argue a derivative) based on the underlying mortgages on these overpriced homes.

Responsible homeowners got burned, at least for a few years because the impact of this issue brought the whole US residential market down with it and swung the pendulum way too far on the other direction. Good luck selling your home at almost any price over the next few years.

The assets were CDOs. – Garth

#126 John C Argus on 06.06.22 at 11:41 pm

#110 Reynolds753 on 06.06.22 at 10:13 pm
Satori
#46 Sail Away on 06.06.22 at 4:33 pm
#23 Faron on 06.06.22 at 3:36 pm

#55 Minutiae Men

Oh please … please do. BOTH of you… the door is so wide open. If this pathetic blog would allow us to vote you off the island, you’d have been gone long ago. And if you could take the guy from Italy with you, whatever his name is. As a tradeoff, well keep TurnerNation, much to my chagrin.

Seriously, do you think anyone on this blog wakes up thinking how much they can’t wait to hear about how you pass your mundane days? How egotistical of you.
——————————————————————

Minutiae Men: thank you for your comment. Sail Away and Faron are a very tiresome pair when they exchange less than pleasantries. Perhaps they can exchange e-mail addresses and make their comments to each other without the rest of us having to read the excessive drivel that these two generate.

Yes, we shall have to keep TurnerNation in exchange for this duo leaving us alone and that says a bunch

-You are so not the only one!!!!

Please someone get the to exchange emails! And spare us the constant unrelated crap.

#127 Don Wilks on 06.06.22 at 11:48 pm

#55 Minutiae Men on 06.06.22 at 5:03 pm#46 Sail Away on 06.06.22 at 4:33 pm
#23 Faron on 06.06.22 at 3:36 pm

Okay. Seemed hyper mundane to me. I find his need to update steerage on the minutiae of his life extremely lame and wasteful of Garth’s time.

——–

Yo bro: start your own blog and I promise to never, ever even think about going there. I’ll take it a step further and immediately forget about your existence entirely.

Just call me Mr. Solution.

fyi: I woke up around 5am today after lots of weekend exercise cutting wood and biking. Weighed in at 177 before a healthy breakfast of steel cut oats, topped with Costco dried blueberries and pecans. Mmmmm. So good.

____________

Oh please … please do. BOTH of you… the door is so wide open. If this pathetic blog would allow us to vote you off the island, you’d have been gone long ago. And if you could take the guy from Italy with you, whatever his name is. As a tradeoff, well keep TurnerNation, much to my chagrin.

Seriously, do you think anyone on this blog wakes up thinking how much they can’t wait to hear about how you pass your mundane days? How egotistical of you.

———————————–

Amen.

Exchange emails and then GET a room already!!! This isn’t a dating site!

++++++++++++++++++

We are in the build up phase. Then they break up, wit Faron apologizes profusely and swears he will leave forever, and then these is the happy reunion. And we are back to the build up.

Sick of this redundancy, is really an understatement.

#128 Faron on 06.07.22 at 12:02 am

#119 Satori on 06.06.22 at 11:13 pm
#121 Satori on 06.06.22 at 11:16 pm
#124 Beth on 06.06.22 at 11:37 pm
#126 John C Argus on 06.06.22 at 11:41 pm

spare us the constant unrelated crap.

Gladly. That’s one of my principal points. If you can’t see my #97 or Ustabe’s #81 as a joke, then I feel sorry for you.

I have no interest in detailing my daily doings nor locales and shall not do it. I’ll weigh in on topic, but will also weigh in on off-topic comments that I am informed about.

#129 Russ on 06.07.22 at 12:05 am

Hey Faron & S A,

I got back from the road trip. Nice drive around southern B.C.

What is the plan for the vancouver Island wesy coast cruise? I might need to juggle some things if it’s a go before the middle of July.

cheers, R

#130 Ustabe on 06.07.22 at 12:28 am

All of you all who are jumping to rag on Faron need to know that there is quite a back story there, before your time I suspect.

But, like you all should, I’ll leave the moderation to Garth and will refrain from any history lessons. For now.

Suffice it to say I was surprised that the little school yard clique that pounded on Faron over months, without let up wasn’t moderated out of existence by the powers that be.

They were allowed to post their innuendos, their brutish insults, their ad hominems.

Sail Away was a gleeful participant and their creation, Faron as we know him now, is certainly overstepping at times but its Sail Away’s bed, he now gets to sleep in it.

The rest of you, use your scroll wheel.

#131 Paul on 06.07.22 at 12:56 am

#110 Reynolds753 on 06.06.22 at 10:13 pm
#46 Sail Away on 06.06.22 at 4:33 pm
#23 Faron on 06.06.22 at 3:36 pm

#55 Minutiae Men

Oh please … please do. BOTH of you… the door is so wide open. If this pathetic blog would allow us to vote you off the island, you’d have been gone long ago. And if you could take the guy from Italy with you, whatever his name is. As a tradeoff, well keep TurnerNation, much to my chagrin.

Seriously, do you think anyone on this blog wakes up thinking how much they can’t wait to hear about how you pass your mundane days? How egotistical of you.
——————————————————————

Minutiae Men: thank you for your comment. Sail Away and Faron are a very tiresome pair when they exchange less than pleasantries. Perhaps they can exchange e-mail addresses and make their comments to each other without the rest of us having to read the excessive drivel that these two generate.

Yes, we shall have to keep TurnerNation in exchange for this duo leaving us alone and that says a bunch.

*****

That TurnerNation is trending to emerge as the least annoying poster of the three, is, well, just great. haha

#132 Bezengy on 06.07.22 at 6:44 am

Here in Northern Ontario the off-grid villages are starting to fill up. I took my ATV in last week to check one site out as you can’t just drive in with a car due to poor road conditions, but I hear folks are already asking for a school bus to pick up their kids so maybe improvements are on the way. If anyone ever questioned whether Canada’s standard of living is declining to third world status one just needs to visit one of these sites. No hydro, water, sewage, garbage pickup, fire protection, etc., just them and the black flies with no rules to follow. Freedom for some perhaps, but I see nothing but misery for most.

#133 Prince Polo on 06.07.22 at 7:35 am

#53 Flip Flop and Fly on 06.06.22 at 4:58 pm
PRINCE POLO Says average price in GTA was $1.52 Million in May.

Toronto Real Estate Board says average May price was $1,212,806 That is down about $120,000 from Feb peak.

There are a lot of agents who missed their Mercedes lease payment this month. Buyer beware.

It should have been obvious that I was quoting the colourful table from here: https://www.greaterfool.ca/2022/06/03/the-surrender/

#134 Dharma Bum on 06.07.22 at 7:58 am

#24 Trigger Happy

DON has been TRIGGERED and that makes me HAPPY.

BTW, it didn’t take much, but that was obvious from all of his previous posts!
———————————————————————————————————–

Perhaps we should all help him find his own “safe space”.

It would be the altruistic thing to do.

#135 Dharma Bum on 06.07.22 at 8:13 am

“But stop moaning.” – Garth
—————————————————————————————————

What he said.

#136 Dave on 06.07.22 at 8:19 am

#81 Ustabe on 06.06.22 at 7:17 pm

Hey Ustabe, thanks for detailing your day to the utter delight of the masses who read steerage. I particularly like how you explained the rubber band rescue that puts you a notch above mere mortals. It seems that you have caught on to the real reason Garth has a comments section. It’s important that we all share in the blueberry munching and rubber band picking that each and every blogperson engages in 24/7/365. Because this is such a powerful opportunity to enlighten our peers, I would like to relay some of the really amazing/cool things that I did today because today was a big day for me.

At the grocery store there was a discount on the 710,000mg box of Diamond Shreddies. I really like Diamond Shreddies because they keep me regular, taste great, and sog perfectly in my preferred milk-alternative — almond(!). Unfortunately, the shop was out of the regular kind of Diamond Shreddies that I prefer. So, it’s crazy, but I went out on a limb and got the Honey Diamond Shreddies.

Earlier in the day I was feeling kind of hungry, so I ate a sandwich that I had brought along just in case lunch should happen and I in the off chance that I started to feel hungry. I mean, I’m pretty smart, but even I was impressed that I had the forethought to plan that lunch would roll around and that I may desire food in or around that time. But, to be fair, I actually packed two sandwiches so that I could eat one at 11AM and another during proper lunch. That’s how I roll.

This morning I patted Randall on the head seven times and gave him two gentle head butts and rubbed his chin flops 16 times on each side. Then I made oatmeal and put raisins and bananas in it and a pad of butter knowing that that first sandwich was a long ways off! Butter is yellow and salty (if you get the salted kind) and greasy!

I look forward to filling you all in tomorrow in hopes that I too can be an interesting person. I’ll let you know how the Honey Diamond Shreddies tasted. Cool, right?

+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

Faron…personally I prefer the 710,000,000 microgram box. That way I know I am not getting ripped off because I weigh the boxes contents at home. It takes me the better part of a day to accomplish this. My biggest concern though are the weight fluctuations due to differing humidity levels and their effect on the hygroscopic nature of the Diamond shreddies. I plan to contact the manufacturer to find out what humid conditions the Shreddies are weighed so i can duplicate it at home.

Fortunately I am retired and am now able to do all the important things I had to put off because of work.

#137 surf on 06.07.22 at 8:57 am

Maybe the trade unions weren’t so bad. Seems like fifty years of demise were a successful experiment to lower the lifestyles of the classless. Back to my hovel.

#138 Question for you on 06.07.22 at 9:05 am

What are your thoughts on rates doubling and tripling?

Sure we’ve gone from 10 to 19% rates as a double… when’s the last time we tripled? And never so quickly.

If rates double shouldn’t a house be worth 50% less to for a buyer to afford… if they triple or quadruple who can buy?

COVID… load up on debt, especially business that don’t conform to the COVID economy …. 2 years later… let’s blow up everyone with debt…

Going to be an interesting summer, may turn off the News and enjoy the weather.

#139 Janet Cole on 06.07.22 at 9:14 am

Garth, yesterday you quipped “the west can not and will nor secede”. Why “can’t ” they? We are only bound by the elites hold on an antiquated political notion. That could easily be set aside with our political will.

They have no issue with Quebec seperating. Trudeaus Ottawa is already building Quebec into a self sustaining power. What’s keeping WEXIT from calling a referendum and waving good bye. Polls support freedom.

Nobody leaves the union without majority consent from all parts of it. The law. – Garth

#140 Sail Away on 06.07.22 at 9:47 am

Wow, this place has gone a bit off topic.

I think the Village People are high as Cici said.

#141 DON on 06.07.22 at 9:55 am

#134 Dharma Bum on 06.07.22 at 7:58 am
#24 Trigger Happy

DON has been TRIGGERED and that makes me HAPPY.

BTW, it didn’t take much, but that was obvious from all of his previous posts!
———————————————————————————————————–

Perhaps we should all help him find his own “safe space”.

It would be the altruistic thing to do

********
Dharma, you spent the past couple of years telling us about you and your son’s real estate. Sounds like you are the one whining now. Time to put on the big boy pant and take the consequences.

I have no debt. I sleep well. You posts lately are very telling.

#142 Sgt Schultz on 06.07.22 at 9:57 am

What does it mean???? It means WW3 is almost upon us. I know nussing.

#143 DON on 06.07.22 at 10:05 am

#130 Ustabe on 06.07.22 at 12:28 am
All of you all who are jumping to rag on Faron need to know that there is quite a back story there, before your time I suspect.

*********

The tensions are rising as people rethink their past decisions and lash out like petulant adults. We knew this day would come. Projection seems to be their main defense other wise they might have to look into the mirror and take responsibility for their actions.

Human nature never fails.

#144 Sail Away on 06.07.22 at 10:09 am

#129 Russ on 06.07.22 at 12:05 am
Hey Faron & S A,

I got back from the road trip. Nice drive around southern B.C.

What is the plan for the vancouver Island wesy coast cruise? I might need to juggle some things if it’s a go before the middle of July.

cheers, R

———-

Love to, but we’re short a boat.

Hope you had a good trip. Pick any fire morels?

#145 Ponzius Pilatus on 06.07.22 at 10:58 am

#132 Bezengy on 06.07.22 at 6:44 am
Here in Northern Ontario the off-grid villages are starting to fill up. I took my ATV in last week to check one site out as you can’t just drive in with a car due to poor road conditions, but I hear folks are already asking for a school bus to pick up their kids so maybe improvements are on the way. If anyone ever questioned whether Canada’s standard of living is declining to third world status one just needs to visit one of these sites. No hydro, water, sewage, garbage pickup, fire protection, etc., just them and the black flies with no rules to follow. Freedom for some perhaps, but I see nothing but misery for most.
————————
Many boomers did this in the sixties.
Not worse for wear.
The kids are alright.

#146 Ponzius Pilatus on 06.07.22 at 11:05 am

#137 surf on 06.07.22 at 8:57 am
Maybe the trade unions weren’t so bad. Seems like fifty years of demise were a successful experiment to lower the lifestyles of the classless. Back to my hovel.
———————-
Overall, unions fill an important human need.
In numbers there is strength.
Sure, sometimes they go overboard.
But without them, kids would probably still be working in the coal mines of Kentucky.

#147 millmech on 06.07.22 at 11:14 am

Volker times are coming!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qIOwZp266gk

#148 Gr on 06.07.22 at 11:33 am

Some others might also find this 19min YouTube, at After Skool, interesting or even possibly useful information about…

How to Find Balance in the Age of Indulgence – Dr. Anna Lembke
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aEfkx3DsXjs&t=918s

#149 Faron on 06.07.22 at 11:36 am

#144 Sail Away on 06.07.22 at 10:09 am
#129 Russ on 06.07.22 at 12:05 am
Hey Faron & S A,

I got back from the road trip. Nice drive around southern B.C.

What is the plan for the vancouver Island wesy coast cruise? I might need to juggle some things if it’s a go before the middle of July.

cheers, R

———-

Love to, but we’re short a boat.

I’m interested in any real opportunity to gain offshore experience. Sail Away offered, but seems to have been unable to back that offer. He also only offered for him and I alone for some reason. Sorry Russ.

#150 Faron on 06.07.22 at 11:42 am

#136 Dave on 06.07.22 at 8:19 am

LOL. With shrinkflation, they are trying to sell 709,999,999μg in the 710,000,000μg box. Jerks.

#151 Sail Away on 06.07.22 at 11:52 am

#149 Faron on 06.07.22 at 11:36 am

He also only offered for him and I

——–

‘him and me’

But Russ is definitely welcome. Especially if he hosts the boat ;-)

#152 The Regulator on 06.07.22 at 11:52 am

# 122 – Michael in North York : In 2020, Ukraine produced 4% and Russia 10% of the worlds wheat. Their combined exports totalled 7.3% of global production. Almost as much as the entire E.U. Russia and Turkey agreed to demine a corridor via Odessa through the black Sea. Several Ukrainian mines were dislodged during a storm, causing them to become a hazard to seagoing vessels. Therefore, nothing will prohibit Ukraine from exporting grains in the near future. After all, they need to pay for all those shiny new weapons somehow.

#153 David Stanley on 06.07.22 at 11:54 am

I have been blocked from accessing my #Paypal account because I do not own a mobile phone to use while logging in. They get to just keep my money. Shame on Paypal.

#154 Russ on 06.07.22 at 12:11 pm

Okay, thanks guys.

No gathering of morels on the trip but some nice walks through the forest. The missus is a little unsure of her mushroom ID skills these days and it is something I never did get into.

BTW Faron, what offshore experience are you looking for? A few nights at sea or longer, say weeks?

Cheers, R

#155 Janet Cole on 06.07.22 at 12:14 pm

#139

Re: WEXIT. Garth, we will make our own laws upon a referendum to separate and Trudonia is welcome to keep theirs. We will not be bound by tyranny.

Here’s another example of change. Climate hysteria brought ESG hostility. Now that our world is returning to common sense, ESG funds are drying up. Things change Garth, time never stands still in business or politics. A referendum called today would bring freedom from tyranny , what Adam Smith called ” The Invisible Hand”. What would Trudeau do, call in the tanks to run us down?

Tamara for President of the Republic of Wexit! – Garth

#156 Faron on 06.07.22 at 12:14 pm

#151 Sail Away on 06.07.22 at 11:52 am
#149 Faron on 06.07.22 at 11:36 am

He also only offered for him and I

——–

‘him and me’

But Russ is definitely welcome. Especially if he hosts the boat ;-)

It would be funny if the guy who egregiously misspelled ‘west’ turned out to be the guy who could live up to promises.

#157 Dr V on 06.07.22 at 12:28 pm

Gas up again. That would be over $300 fillup on the
F150. It’s a big tank – 136 litres. since March, I’ve kept
it under $100 per month. Also might run it down close to
empty. No use hauling over 200lb of fuel around.

Other gas saving tips:

– keep tire pressure topped up
– drive like there is an eggshell under your foot.
– park once and walk to several destinations.
– don’t buy an F150…….

#158 Squire on 06.07.22 at 12:38 pm

#139 Janet Cole on 06.07.22 at 9:14 am
Garth, yesterday you quipped “the west can not and will nor secede”. Why “can’t ” they? We are only bound by the elites hold on an antiquated political notion. That could easily be set aside with our political will.

They have no issue with Quebec seperating. Trudeaus Ottawa is already building Quebec into a self sustaining power. What’s keeping WEXIT from calling a referendum and waving good bye. Polls support freedom.

Nobody leaves the union without majority consent from all parts of it. The law. – Garth
————————————
Not gonna happen. Quebec and the least coast get way too much money from Alberta’s energy to allow that. Sorry Alberta, you’re stuck.

#159 Ponzius Pilatus on 06.07.22 at 12:45 pm

#153 David Stanley on 06.07.22 at 11:54 am
I have been blocked from accessing my #Paypal account because I do not own a mobile phone to use while logging in. They get to just keep my money. Shame on Paypal.
————————-
You’ve learned the hard way that Pay isn’t really your Pal.
Should sue them for misleading advertising and discrimination.

#160 Penny Henny on 06.07.22 at 1:23 pm

#8 Dr V on 06.06.22 at 3:07 pm
I’m not getting the Village People reference. Disco? YMCA? Cowboy? Anybody? Thanks
/////////////

Macho, Macho Man?

Bingo. – Garth

#161 PeterfromCalgary on 06.07.22 at 1:48 pm

“Monthly credit card spending is up 17%. Lenders increased credit card issuance by 31% in the last three months and spending limits have hit a seven-year high. Consumers now owe more than $20,000 each (not counting mortgages or HELOCs) and total debt has arrived at $2.3 trillion.”

Can’t blame the truckers for that although Trudeau will try to.

#162 jess on 06.07.22 at 1:50 pm

after one reads this one has to wonder why not just ban all of it. less BS ….Where is the money?

https://www.reuters.com/investigates/special-report/fintech-crypto-binance-dirtymoney/

#163 Michael in-north-york on 06.07.22 at 2:09 pm

#152 The Regulator

Your number for exports is wrong, I gave you the link. Ukraine alone accounts for 9% of global wheat exports. And even more than that in other categories.

Let’s see if EU and Turkey can lift Putin’s blockade.

#164 Re-Cowtown on 06.07.22 at 2:16 pm

Soggy Shorts….

That was probably the dumbest defense of elitism yet. The argument that the elites are wealthy and can do what they want while telling the plebes to follow their diktats is a reason why they have no real world credibility.

Too bad you weren’t around in the French Revolution to defend Marie Antoinette. It would have ended so much better for here.

#165 Faron on 06.07.22 at 2:41 pm

#154 Russ on 06.07.22 at 12:11 pm

BTW Faron, what offshore experience are you looking for? A few nights at sea or longer, say weeks?

I would qualify as capable crew on a sloop rigged sailing vessel with symmetrical spinnaker under 40 feet. I have an untested stomach beyond 6 hours of rough conditions. If you know persons seeking crew, let me know via Garth.

#166 Faron on 06.07.22 at 2:42 pm

#164 Re-Cowtown on 06.07.22 at 2:16 pm

You’re moving the goalposts.

#167 Ustabe on 06.07.22 at 2:54 pm

,i> #157 Dr V on 06.07.22 at 12:28 pm

Gas up again. That would be over $300 fillup on the
F150. It’s a big tank – 136 litres. since March, I’ve kept it under $100 per month. Also might run it down close to empty. No use hauling over 200lb of fuel around.

Other gas saving tips:

– keep tire pressure topped up
– drive like there is an eggshell under your foot.
– park once and walk to several destinations.
– don’t buy an F150…….

Most modern vehicles keep the fuel pump inside the gas tank where it is actually the fuel surrounding it that keeps it cool.

Running close to or at empty for extended periods will hasten the fuel pump’s demise.

Better to bite the bullet and fill up once, then pretend 1/2 tank is your new empty.

#168 SoggyShorts on 06.07.22 at 2:55 pm

#164 Re-Cowtown on 06.07.22 at 2:16 pm
Soggy Shorts….

That was probably the dumbest defense of elitism yet. The argument that the elites are wealthy and can do what they want while telling the plebes to follow their diktats is a reason why they have no real world credibility.

Too bad you weren’t around in the French Revolution to defend Marie Antoinette. It would have ended so much better for here.
*************************
Where did I defend “the Elites”?

Try reading it again, or I’ll sum it up for you here:

Rich people won’t be hurt by rising water levels.
That doesn’t mean water levels aren’t rising, nor does it mean they are lying about it.

Here’s another example:
I well and truly believe in the fact of man-made climate change, and I agree that we need to take measures to reduce our impact…
but
I plan to take a total of 17 flights this year.

That makes me a selfish hypocrite, but it doesn’t make climate change fake.

#169 cuke and tomato picker on 06.07.22 at 3:14 pm

Saw a tweet today that said they have very high gas prices in the U.S. and U.K. AND THEY DID NOT VOTE FOR
JUSTIN TRUDEAU.

#170 Alberta Nomad on 06.08.22 at 1:04 am

“We just needed to get normal.”

Better late than never. So happy to be renting.