The Ps

Rachel’s been breeding dogs for 30 years. No standalone, outside kennel. Pups are birthed in the “nursery” off the kitchen. Four litters a year, usually. R spent a decade being a real estate agent, too, but then the canine business grew to take up most of her time.

Until now.

Last year a purebred pup fetched an historic price. “I was shocked at what happened,” she told me. “And suddenly I was besieged with requests from people who wanted to buy two dogs at a time, males and females. It didn’t take long before I realized they were puppy brokers, reselling for a big profit, or amateur breeders taking advantage of things. The only way I could stop that was to charge for my puppies what the market would bear.”

That meant $3,500 each. In fact for some of the more exotic breeds, $6,000 a pup was the norm through much of 2021. Supply and demand. The number of people during the pandemic craving canine companionship was without precedent. WFH meant long hours alone for many, and not commuting to work gave them disposable income to shower on a breeder in exchange for a cold, wet nose and four pink paws.

But now there’s a glut of dogs. Kijiji in every city is swollen with puppy ads. The humane societies and SPCAs are filling up with adults as the pandemic fades from view, society reopens and people are migrating back to work. And breeders like Rachel are watching the pendulum swing back with a vengeance. That $3,500 price was cut two months ago to $1,900, and now she’s hitting Instagram, Twitter and, yes, Kijiji, trying to find homes for the latest litter – at $800.

I’m no fan of Royal LePage boss Phil Soper, but a year ago – in the grip of Covid – he had this observation: “People are focused on the three Ps of the pandemic: puppies, Peloton and property.”

He nailed it. Dogs cost thousands. Peloton’s techy exercise bikes had a huge order backlog, and the company’s stock exploded (along with Shopify, Netflix, Zoom and other WFH meme issues) from $19 when Covid hit in March of 2020 to $162 by Christmas of that year.

But no more.

The stock has collapsed this year. At around $12, it’s lost over 90% of its value from the high. The latest earnings report was a disaster – a loss of $757 million in just three months, while revenues tanked. For the first three quarters of fiscal 2022, Pelton has sunk into a sea of $1.6 billion in red ink.

Peloton stocks has lost 92% of its value since Covid

You know why. Covid came and is now going. Vax saved us. The economy exploded. Workplaces reopened, as did the gyms, pools and sports leagues. Inflation, $2 gas and higher rates arrived, eating into disposable income. Peloton sales crashed and the machines started appearing on used-stuff-for-sale sites. Like sitting in Zoom meetings, people got sick of exercising in the spare bedroom.

Now, Soper’s final ‘P’ is taking the hit.

Take a look at this gauge of popular real estate sentiment in one of the hotter property markets in the nation over the last few years – Kelowna, the jewel of the Okanagan Valley.

Source: RE Analytics

After a bull market which saw detached prices rise by 96% between 2018 and the end of March, 2022, it’s over. In the last eight weeks, prices have retreated 11%, or $142,000 and are forecast to roll back 47% (or $557,000) over the course of the next year. Therefore the average detached price of $1.281 million will become $724,000, says RE Analytics. Pity the folks who bought in the last few months.

As we have detailed here in recent days, the Bank of Canada rate, now jacked up to 1.5%, will be 3% by later in 2023, according to bank officials. Thus the chartered bank prime, now 3.7%, will be 5.2%. HELOC rates will be close to 6%. VRMs will have doubled from February levels.

Says Ontario mortgage broker Ron Butler: “If Bank Prime hits 5.20% and 5 – yr fixed rate mortgages edge over 6%, nothing can stop falling real estate prices. Central Toronto may not fall as far, but not immune.”

By the way, mortgage rates at the major lenders head north again this week. Look for a 25-bip bump, taking the fiver to around 4.8% with a qualifying rate that is approaching 7%. There’s no way prices in any market in Canada – from Victoria to Halifax and out to the Rock – can withstand the impact of this. The market will freeze, prices fall meaningfully, then enough buyers must materialize to save it from a collapse, as we revert to the norm.

Apparently, it wasn’t different this time. Again.

About the picture: “Thank you for your blog, it has improved my financial literacy greatly in the last few years,” writes Desiree, in Calgary. “This is my 2.5 year old chihuahua Chico.  He is not feeling so good right now, thank Dog he is coming home from the hospital today.”

154 comments ↓

#1 Scott in Gibsons on 06.05.22 at 11:58 am

Assuming your real estate predictions come true Garth, does this guarantee the election of someone who talks like Pierre in our future elections? Who will voters elect to fix their falling standard of living?

I thought people were clamouring for cheaper houses. Here ya go. – Garth

#2 crowdedelevatorfartz on 06.05.22 at 12:06 pm

So even Puppy sales are dropping.
The Harbinger of times ahead.
Should be some awesome deals on used “toys” this Sept after the last Summer of Fun for few years.
People with money might wanna wait until the cold snows of winter are blowing under the door before lowballing a motorcycle or a jet ski
And if people are viewing Real Estate with a jaundiced eye…… what to do with alll that extra moolah stashed away for a down payment?…..
Will the markets will reap allll that extra cash-o-la lying around?
Right Quinty?
Oh, I forgot.
Cynical pikers don’t have money to invest.
:)

#3 Doug t on 06.05.22 at 12:06 pm

Please Please Please take this Victoria market off its high horse

#4 wicked in bc on 06.05.22 at 12:09 pm

i am really looking forward to this. Homes out here in chilliwack are around a million for a tear down and we are overloaded with 4000 sq ft lots offering 3000 sq ft homes that no one can afford. I bought out here in 2013 and feel sorry for the ones that purchased in last year for 3x what i paid. Sales have all but stopped. Kelowna is next.

#5 Flop… on 06.05.22 at 12:16 pm

Thor, your Kelowna graphic reminded me to show you this sales chart of the market reversal heading towards something resembling balance, in the city that modesty avoids…

M47BC

https://mobile.twitter.com/eresc79/status/1531854942452871168/photo/2

#6 Ponzius Pilatus on 06.05.22 at 12:23 pm

Yep, always stay away from fads.
Go for stuff that stood the harsh test of time.
The proof is in the Pudding.
Whatever that means.
Crazy Brits.

#7 None on 06.05.22 at 12:25 pm

Read some of Ron on Twitter the other day. Weird dude.

I think realtors and brokers are stressed AF right now and are trying to sound wise but most are just form filling excel drones. They pretend they know more than the bank of Canada and are experts of global economics. It’s comical to watch. Lame grifters of bad ideas.

Some stay in their lane and are honest middle men (and women). I like those better. Honesty and transparency is gold.

#8 THE DANDADA on 06.05.22 at 12:43 pm

$162 to $12…….

Just as bad as Crypto and the stock markets have full regulations yet how many lost their shirts off of this one?

#9 Flop… on 06.05.22 at 12:49 pm

#88 crowdedelevatorfartz on 06.04.22 at 10:24 pm
@376 Floppie
Corpus Christi eh?
Never been but it looks nice.
The only thing I’d be concerned about would be Hurricanes.
Galveston got wiped off the map 100 years ago.
A long term, fully furnished rental might be a good idea.
Nothing to lose but the address.

$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$

Morning Crowdie, nothing’s perfect, but I’ve done a bit of due diligence with my limited brain power, life is full of risks big and small.

Here’s what I’ve noticed looking at charts and watching the weather station when holidaying down south for the last 15 or so years.

On the Hurricane Clock, Corpus Christi is at 9 o’clock.

Houston and Galveston are at 11, o’clock.

New Orleans is at 12 o’clock.

Meaning a lot of the major storms that come into the Gulf originally head towards 9 or 10 o’clock, but then straighten up towards 12 o’clock and even 1 o’clock on the Hurricane Clockface as they head towards the Carolina’s and the Atlantic Ocean.

Here’s a quote for you to read.

“So how often does Corpus Christi get hit by a hurricane or tropical storm? The National Hurricane Center has conducted studies that show a hurricane should pass within 50 miles of Corpus Christi every 16 years and a major hurricane every 33 years.”

So yeah, it happens occasionally but not as much as a lot of other places down there.

This chart of 150 years of historical hurricane landfalls probably is a good example as any to try and show you what I mean.

https://spacecoastdaily.com/2019/08/noaa-historical-hurricane-tracks-explore-more-than-150-years-of-historical-hurricane-landfalls/

Also, and this is an important form of defence, Corpus Christi has a fortress of barrier islands in front of her to diffuse the main storm surge.

Had a look this morning, plenty of furnished short term rentals for under a $1000 bucks a month.

Lots of barbecue and Fried Chicken places down there, so I’m more worried about getting a piece of food stuck in my throat and Mrs Flop being unable to perform the Heimlich Manoeuvre on me after I hit the buffet too hard…

M47BC

#10 Leftover on 06.05.22 at 12:50 pm

There are now 306 listings in Kelowna over $2 million. As a comparison, there are about 200 over $2 million listings from Sooke to Sidney, including Greater Victoria, which has more than twice the population of Kelowna.

Fear indeed.

#11 Quintilian on 06.05.22 at 12:55 pm

#2 crowdedelevatorfartz on 06.05.22 at 12:06 pm
Will the markets will reap allll that extra cash-o-la lying around?
Right Quinty?
Oh, I forgot.
Cynical pikers don’t have money to invest.
:)

Really too bad Crowdie you don’t know the difference between gambling and investing.

Please do try again to explain how a recession, as you originally characterized, would not translate into a drop of share prices, profitability, and not generally detrimental for business.

#12 North snore on 06.05.22 at 12:57 pm

Soren Angst: moving to Europe soon, and had a question about banks

Do you still work or have ties to Canada? can you manage your money while in Europe? I’ve heard that some banks will not allow you to have investing accounts if your not a resident

any info would be helpful

#13 Felix on 06.05.22 at 12:57 pm

“Rachel’s been breeding dogs for 30 years”

With cats in charge, that would be a criminal offence, Appropriately.

“But now there’s a glut of dogs”

A curse upon the planet, worse than all wars and global warming.

“Dogs cost thousands”

Garth nails it – a huge waste of resources, making dogawful canine owners poor as well as dumb.

Surrender your dogs. Get a cat, increase your wealth and your IQ.

#14 Søren Angst on 06.05.22 at 12:59 pm

47%

FORTY-SEVEN PERCENT, say what?

And here the other day I was making lost Wealth calcs due to RE with 40% as the “Armageddon” scenario.

Well Kelowna, Cdn Net Worth, 2019 StatCan data with a 47% home price drop:

Average Wealth

Before $855,500
After $574,205

Median Wealth

Before $477,000
After $289,000

Still, not quite the end of the World but a kick in the psyche for sure. HELOCs about to get a whole lot smaller in Kelowna over the next year if RE Analytics is correct.

————–

Garth, there are going to be a lot of devastated people in Kelowna over the next 12 months not just recent home buyers.

And other parts of Canada if Kelowna is the bellwether.

#15 Omniscient on 06.05.22 at 1:00 pm

After a bull market which saw detached prices rise by 96% between 2018 and the end of March, 2022, it’s over. In the last eight weeks, prices have retreated 11%, or $142,000 and are forecast to roll back 47% (or $557,000) over the course of the next year. Therefore the average detached price of $1.281 million will become $724,000, says RE Analytics. Pity the folks who bought in the last few months.

______________

Funny how you always pick and choose which source you want to use to back your thesis of the day. Now you want to forecast a rollback of 47% … Good luck with that. But of course, you are never willing to put your money where your mouth is. Just fear mongering and rhetoric. But you wont follow up on your claim in the future when you are wrong. You’ll just bend the story to fit your narrative.

No doubt you want to take credit for the few idiots that overpaid for their properties over the course of the last several months too, as if it was rocket science.

Besides, I don’t think it is fair to be discussing the Okanagan while we deal with some of the worst forest fire situations this region has seen in years … as was predicted and anticipated on this site last year by the many brainiacs who who purport to know everything.

Feel free to post your own learned forecast for Kelowna. – Garth

#16 Faron on 06.05.22 at 1:11 pm

#73 Ustabe on 06.04.22 at 6:44 pm

So I will, babble on you ignorant narcissistic sociopath.

LOL. So much juice for him to stew in. It oozes like a poison oak rash. Salt on a slug. Etc.

You can tell he’s feeling extra small, extra bored when he both offers a polarizing take and self aggrandizes in short order. Madre de dios.

#17 Leon Umsk on 06.05.22 at 1:17 pm

I have gone and looked into some of these dogs at the local pound with an eye toward taking one home. Having had dogs all my life I saw right away some real behaviour problems. Some of these things can be really hard to break. Not surprising though when you see these fools doing things like putting life jackets on a lab and pretending they are teaching them to swim. Here’s a tip your dog likes the water or doesn’t, if it does he/she doesn’t need your help or life jacket,. If she/he doesn’t she never will and you won’t ever teach the dog to swim. Yeah they have feelings, they have human like traits but those are more of our projections on them. Many of you should never have a dog. You don’t deserve them and they don’t need your nonsense.

#18 DON on 06.05.22 at 1:38 pm

#16 Omniscient on 06.05.22 at 1:00 pm
After a bull market which saw detached prices rise by 96% between 2018 and the end of March, 2022, it’s over. In the last eight weeks, prices have retreated 11%, or $142,000 and are forecast to roll back 47% (or $557,000) over the course of the next year. Therefore the average detached price of $1.281 million will become $724,000, says RE Analytics. Pity the folks who bought in the last few months.

______________

Funny how you always pick and choose which source you want to use to back your thesis of the day. Now you want to forecast a rollback of 47% … Good luck with that. But of course, you are never willing to put your money where your mouth is. Just fear mongering and rhetoric. But you wont follow up on your claim in the future when you are wrong. You’ll just bend the story to fit your narrative.

No doubt you want to take credit for the few idiots that overpaid for their properties over the course of the last several months too, as if it was rocket science.

Besides, I don’t think it is fair to be discussing the Okanagan while we deal with some of the worst forest fire situations this region has seen in years … as was predicted and anticipated on this site last year by the many brainiacs who who purport to know everything.

***********

A little passive aggressive there bud?

What does the forest fires have to do with it?

If you can’t take the news that is your problem.

#19 The Regulator on 06.05.22 at 1:41 pm

# 2 – fart-bot : You seem mean spirited to me, what does it matter to you if some fool has to liquidate his possessions? So your ilk can buy them for pennies on the $ ? Or explain to his children that there will be no Christmas presents under the tree? What’s up with that?

#20 Kingkouros69 on 06.05.22 at 1:41 pm

These comment sections are getting harder to read with the combative nature of some of the posters. Ease up please.

#21 Andrewski on 06.05.22 at 1:44 pm

Not sure who’s more pathetic, the puppy mill breeders or the impetuous puppy purchaser’s who’re apparently pawning off their (more than likely) poorly trained pooches on to the under resourced SPCA’s, rescue groups, etc?!

Registered breeders are not puppy mills. – Garth

#22 Joseph R. on 06.05.22 at 1:44 pm

“Dogs cost thousands”

A dog is one of the best investment you can do in your life.

#23 The Regulator on 06.05.22 at 1:52 pm

# 14 – Felix : I get the feeling you don’t like dogs. To each their own. What is your opinion on mice? They’re cute, furry and fairly harmless. How many mice get mercilessly tortured each year by “playful” cats? There should be a law….

#24 WhereToNow on 06.05.22 at 2:05 pm

Sheeesh . . . . so many dogs and Rich people owning them. John Heinzl figures owning a dog can cost the owners up to $60,000 over the dogs lifetime !! WOW

#25 Søren Angst on 06.05.22 at 2:07 pm

#13 North snore

Do you still work or have ties to Canada? can you manage your money while in Europe?

Retired. Bank with TD and WebBroker for my investments. All you need is an Internet connection in Italia. To get an Internet connection in Italy you need an address and Italian bank account (also for Utilities). I just keep the bare minimum in Italia to cover Utilities & Internet/Phone. Just use your Cdn phone with your bank app to manage your Cdn money. On your own with Cdn phone plans in the EU.

I would not mess with the whole get an Italian address, then a residency card and bank account thing in Italia unless your an Italian citizen to start with. A rough explanation for an Italian bank account if you are not an Italian, a foreigner “conto corrente” = bank account, it will translate as “current account” by Google Translate which is wrong:

“Conto corrente per non residenti in Italia: tutto quello che devi sapere”
https://www.facile.it/conti/guida/tutto-su-conto-corrente-non-residenti.html

“Facile” = Easy in Italian. Nothing like the above is easy in Italia. Trust me.

Use you Cdn phone + some EU phone plan + bank app.

If you do get a bank account in Italia, you can transfer funds from Canada to Italia and back using:

TransferWise
https://wise.com/

Way cheaper and faster than Cdn bank transfers.

————-

I’ve heard that some banks will not allow you to have investing accounts if your not a resident

Don’t use Italian investment accounts. No need, have TD WebBroker plus I don’t trust the Italian banks, save my own, which is Fineco rated #1 in Italia by Forbes. They have a very good investing platform but I prefer Canada. In 🍁 I trust.

If you are going to bank in Italia, use Fineco. All electronic and as capable online as any Cdn bank.

Also, TD/TD WebBroker know I reside in Italia so they send stuff very occasionally but I get most of it, save a new ATM Card, electronically (like tax forms, investment summaries, etc.).

———————

Long and the short of it is don’t bank in Italia unless you plan to live here and, even then you don’t have to. Cdn phone + Cdn bank app + Cdn phone plan for EU the easiest if I were you.

If you want an Italian bank account, my bank here Fineco will do it – pain in the butt, welcome to Italia when it comes to things like this.

https://www.reddit.com/r/ItaliaPersonalFinance/comments/llrvka/conto_fineco_non_residenti/

#26 robert james on 06.05.22 at 2:08 pm

I think Kelowna is going to get whacked bad in the coming months due to rising rates… Anybody that lived here in the Okanagan in the early 80 s would agree…

#27 The OKGN Lifestyle on 06.05.22 at 2:09 pm

In the Central Okanagan, which of course is where Kelowna is located, the benchmark price of a SFH was $1,131,800 in April 2022. In May, it was $1,130,400. Those are the official numbers from the Association of Interior Realtors.

What am I missing?

Realtors = truth. – Garth

#28 millmech on 06.05.22 at 2:09 pm

Most of the employment in the Okanagan is related to construction, it will interesting to watch the contractions like what occurred in the early 90s. Back then Vernon to Oliver not a job to be had and lots of people migrated back to the coast for work, the only people who did well were the government workers with secure incomes.
Five year fixed at 8%, Variable at 6% by EOY, no rate cuts even with a recession.

#29 The Regulator on 06.05.22 at 2:12 pm

Let us look at the facts :
The world produces 800 million tons of wheat/year.
Ukraine produces 20 million tons/year, or 2.5%
Wheat is present in 20% of all food products. Ukraines’ share is 0.5% according to U.N. figures.
What is stopping Ukraine from exporting their wheat through Romania, or Hungary, or Poland, or Belarus? BTW, they’re already doing it.
Russia produces 25% of the worlds’ potash fertilizer. Add Belarusian potash and the figure is 45%. All sanctioned. Natural gas is used to make fertilizer, and E.U. plants are shutting down due to unprofitability. Who is really causing the coming food crisis?

#30 Dave B on 06.05.22 at 2:15 pm

I thought people were clamouring for cheaper houses. Here ya go. – Garth
___________________________

House values are cheaper, but carrying them costs the same. So….??

The only way things get cheaper is by eliminating buyers (like killing them or something), or making more of what they want to buy.

#31 Irish Stew on 06.05.22 at 2:17 pm

People shouldn’t breed dogs…..or animals.
That is why there is an excess at the shelters.

You want a pet – visit your local shelter.
They love the same as a purebred.

#32 The Regulator on 06.05.22 at 2:19 pm

And I heard a voice in the midst of the beasts saying, a measure of wheat for a penny, and 3 measures of barley for a penny; and see thou hurt not the oil and the wine. Revelation 6.6

#33 T Rex and the dinosaur clique on 06.05.22 at 2:20 pm

Interesting situation playing out right now in Rockcliffe-Smythe, a little working class neighbourhood just south of Eglinton and Weston in Toronto.

The new normal pricing for a detached there was around 1.2 million.

Well, not anymore. Facebook is ablaze. Stories abound.

A nice three bed, two storey back split, that was listed for market price at 1,150,000 (priced low to start a bidding war) just sold, after sitting on the market, for $750,000

That is a $400,000 discount.

If you make 100k, your after tax is around 78k

So you would have to work five years, full time, and save every penny, to fill that hole.

Biggest problem right now is finding someone with cash who can close.

You bought a place for 1.3. You listed yours for 1.4 but snap, it’s only worth 800 now and the banks aren’t lending.

Folks you bought the 1.3 place from, are closing on another place for 1.7, but now you can’t pay then.

It’s a friggin train wreck.

No one has cash. Lots of lofty valuations. But no money anywhere.

Man it is bad our there.

Hasn’t hit the papers yet but Facebook is sizzling.

And damn Putin almost hit a nuclear power plant with a cruise missile.

We are f’n f’d upstream with no paddles

#34 Venus Flytrap on 06.05.22 at 2:23 pm

your nonsense.

#19 DON on 06.05.22 at 1:38 pm
#16 Omniscient on 06.05.22 at 1:00 pm
After a bull market which saw detached prices rise by 96% between 2018 and the end of March, 2022, it’s over. In the last eight weeks, prices have retreated 11%, or $142,000 and are forecast to roll back 47% (or $557,000) over the course of the next year. Therefore the average detached price of $1.281 million will become $724,000, says RE Analytics. Pity the folks who bought in the last few months.

______________

Funny how you always pick and choose which source you want to use to back your thesis of the day. Now you want to forecast a rollback of 47% … Good luck with that. But of course, you are never willing to put your money where your mouth is. Just fear mongering and rhetoric. But you wont follow up on your claim in the future when you are wrong. You’ll just bend the story to fit your narrative.

No doubt you want to take credit for the few idiots that overpaid for their properties over the course of the last several months too, as if it was rocket science.

Besides, I don’t think it is fair to be discussing the Okanagan while we deal with some of the worst forest fire situations this region has seen in years … as was predicted and anticipated on this site last year by the many brainiacs who who purport to know everything.

***********

A little passive aggressive there bud?

What does the forest fires have to do with it?

If you can’t take the news that is your problem.

_________
DON, you win the prize!

Actually, forest fires have nothing to do with it. Cause there are none … none even close for the time being. That was the point.

My comments were made only to suck in the weak-minded commenters who do no research before commenting on things they know nothing about or don’t understand.

Congratulations, DON. You beat everyone.
Really no surprise based on your previous comments.

#35 When the Whip Comes Down on 06.05.22 at 2:31 pm

There is plenty of sentiment out there that BOC rates will not get to the point where prime is 5.2%.
Certainly your buddy Benny Tal doesn’t seem to think so. I’m sure you are aware of his opinion that canadian consumer debt is so high that prime of 4.7% will do the job it needs to.

#36 Sail Away on 06.05.22 at 2:36 pm

#18 Leon Umsk on 06.05.22 at 1:17 pm

I have gone and looked into some of these dogs at the local pound with an eye toward taking one home. Having had dogs all my life I saw right away some real behaviour problems. Some of these things can be really hard to break. Not surprising though when you see these fools doing things like putting life jackets on a lab and pretending they are teaching them to swim. Here’s a tip your dog likes the water or doesn’t, if it does he/she doesn’t need your help or life jacket,. If she/he doesn’t she never will and you won’t ever teach the dog to swim. Yeah they have feelings, they have human like traits but those are more of our projections on them. Many of you should never have a dog. You don’t deserve them and they don’t need your nonsense.

———-

Agreed, mostly. There are few better ways to teach a dog acceptable behaviour than inserting them into a properly-behaved pack.

And you, as owner, must accept being The Great and Powerful Almighty, Ruler of Heaven and Earth. Then everyone’s happy, since either you’re the boss or the dog is. Black and white.

#37 Dave on 06.05.22 at 2:38 pm

Prices sure haven’t retreated 11% on the West Coast.

#38 crowdedelevatorfartz on 06.05.22 at 2:38 pm

@#12 Quinty’s questionable quantifiable quandry
“Please do try again to explain how a recession, as you originally characterized, would not translate into a drop of share prices, profitability, and not generally detrimental for business.”

+++
Some businesses are recession proof as are some stocks, bonds etc. They may drop a bit but the dividends keep chugging along.
I have very little to worry about even if a recession hits.
For now I’m leaving my investments alone ( except for RRSP top up to avoid punitive taxes and TFSA top up for the obvious reasons) and loading up on cash money for the inevitable vultching from Greaterfools.
You?
Since you are so pessimistic about the markets?
Are you loading up on cash?
Or are you wallowing in bitterness, blame and bee-yatching?

:)

#39 Islander on 06.05.22 at 2:43 pm

“The market is beginning to shift, affecting home sellers in Nanaimo and surrounding areas. We’ve been in a booming market for five years, and due to the aggressive moves from the Bank Of Canada, we may be at the end of this market cycle. “

The above from a realtor and yes, prices in Nanaimo are stalling/falling.

https://www.nanaimore.com/blog/shift-happens-nearly-a-quarter-of-nanaimo-houses-reduced-in-price/

#40 Sam on 06.05.22 at 2:48 pm

DELETED (Anti-vaccine)

#41 Sail Away on 06.05.22 at 2:48 pm

#24 Irish Stew on 06.05.22 at 2:17 pm

People shouldn’t breed dogs…..or animals.
That is why there is an excess at the shelters.

You want a pet – visit your local shelter.
They love the same as a purebred.

———-

Love schmove; I have birds to hunt. Give me a purebred every time. Same love if that’s the goal, plus un-teachable functional instinct and high-level physical conformance.

The proper tool makes every job easier. Purebred tools in this case.

#42 The OKGN Lifestyle on 06.05.22 at 2:55 pm

Realtors = truth?

Fine, but where do I find the truthful stats indicating otherwise? I cant find this “RE Analytics” info online.

#43 tbone on 06.05.22 at 3:13 pm

Houses seem to be sitting longer in W9.

1320 Kipling ave on a busy street

April 20th … $ 1649000 terminated
May 9th ……..$ 1529000 terminated
June 2nd ……$ 1399000 new listing

Nicely renovated , Still overpriced .

#44 Søren Angst on 06.05.22 at 3:15 pm

Been seeing posts from Spain, one from a Spanish actor on Instagram, of signs/graffiti of:

“Tourist go home”

to that effect.

Read this morning in my fave, Aftonbladet from Sweden, saying that vacations are costing a lot more (as if to bitch about it) and Spain is their favorite destination.

So there it is by me, my take:

https://twitter.com/bsant54/status/1533349901689446400

Spanish not happy with the English either. This captures it:

https://www.thenomadtoday.com/articulo/tourism/tourists-go-home-the-spanish-movement-against-mass-tourism/20220508102542018094.html

——————-

I think it’s a post-Covid affliction. Us nationals for the first time in 2 years have our country back without having to wear a mask, or be barred from large gathering venues, draconian travel checks at an airport, train station, etc.

And we’d just like to enjoy our own country without throngs from other countries all over the place and Hell’s Half Acre.

You know, order an espresso at your favorite bar without having to stand in line for hours while persnickety N. American tourists are trying to order an Italian coffee as if they were at the Dairy Queen of old selecting toppings for their Banana Split.

Tourism is a big part of Spanish and Italian GDP (14.3%, 13%) and we can use the cash.

And now you know why.

—-

So for this year Canadesi (and Americani) try to tread lightly in España & Italia. *

* And for the Love of God, or the Big Electron, DO NOT HIJACK A GONDOLA and have our Guardia Costiera pick you up rowing in circles in the lagoon or CANADESI do not swim in our centuries old fountains, it will cost you €450 for the privilege.

https://edition.cnn.com/travel/article/selfie-fight-trevi-fountain/index.html

BTW: 32/18 Low Hi today in Pordenone. Roma 33/19 today. Fired up the A/C for the 1st time this year. Even I feel it at +32.

Still, if you come to Italia…Benvenuti!

#45 DON on 06.05.22 at 3:17 pm

#35 Venus Flytrap on 06.05.22 at 2:23 pm
your nonsense.

#19 DON on 06.05.22 at 1:38 pm
#16 Omniscient on 06.05.22 at 1:00 pm
After a bull market which saw detached prices rise by 96% between 2018 and the end of March, 2022, it’s over. In the last eight weeks, prices have retreated 11%, or $142,000 and are forecast to roll back 47% (or $557,000) over the course of the next year. Therefore the average detached price of $1.281 million will become $724,000, says RE Analytics. Pity the folks who bought in the last few months.

______________

Funny how you always pick and choose which source you want to use to back your thesis of the day. Now you want to forecast a rollback of 47% … Good luck with that. But of course, you are never willing to put your money where your mouth is. Just fear mongering and rhetoric. But you wont follow up on your claim in the future when you are wrong. You’ll just bend the story to fit your narrative.

No doubt you want to take credit for the few idiots that overpaid for their properties over the course of the last several months too, as if it was rocket science.

Besides, I don’t think it is fair to be discussing the Okanagan while we deal with some of the worst forest fire situations this region has seen in years … as was predicted and anticipated on this site last year by the many brainiacs who who purport to know everything.

***********

A little passive aggressive there bud?

What does the forest fires have to do with it?

If you can’t take the news that is your problem.

_________
DON, you win the prize!

Actually, forest fires have nothing to do with it. Cause there are none … none even close for the time being. That was the point.

My comments were made only to suck in the weak-minded commenters who do no research before commenting on things they know nothing about or don’t understand.

Congratulations, DON. You beat everyone.
Really no surprise based on your previous comments.

***********

There are no forest fires at the moment the down pour of rain was a pretty good indication lately…did you have to read the news to tell you that.

Nice deflection on the topic…like I said passive aggressive…poor poor me. Why didn’t anyone warn me…

Spare parts bud, spare parts.

#46 Jane24 on 06.05.22 at 3:21 pm

I know Kelowna well as I have family there. But other than my lovely relatives there is nothing else there – other than wild fires every summer and smog. There are no high quality jobs to support such high RE prices. Prices are going to come down hard as they are only supported by fairy dust.

I live in England and I still have my Canadian bank accounts and RSSPs. No problem from either country in all these years.

We are thinking though of taking up the new Italian offer for international pensioners. Provided your pension is at least 33,000 euros per couple you can move to Southern Italy and pay a flat income tax of 7% on worldwide income, with free health care if you are UK. You have to rent or buy a home in a community of 20,000 people or less.

The only competition is Portugal which wants 10% income tax on your worldwide income as an incoming pensioner. Warmer weather and better surfing than Italy but we speak Italian in this family. Cheaper housing though and you need to only prove 10,000 euros annually in pension.

In either country $450,000 Cdn buys a lovely villa with a pool.

#47 T Rex and the dinosaur clique on 06.05.22 at 3:22 pm

Woke stream media reporting sunnily today about how RE markets are stabilizing, T2’s glorious ways are leading an economic renaissance and under the guidance of the benevolent W.E.F. and its wonderful and always correct policies, the world is awakening into a new era of perfect life.

Planned economies are the way to go, gushes the press.

Meanwhile folks are getting slaughtered in Toronto and surrounding areas, their entire net worth evaporating. Just gone. Yesterday they had 400K. Today they owe 100k. And everything is now double in price.

Oh well.

Climate change policies don’t apply to return to work mandates (you can save the environment by raising taxes, but not by having people work from home it seems).

Glory to the great reset and the new normal. Drink em if you can afford ’em!

#48 DON on 06.05.22 at 3:29 pm

Have two dogs at the moment one young and one old. Might be a good time to open the house up to welcome another. Give a dog a home. The old dog will train the other dog well.

#49 espressobob on 06.05.22 at 3:31 pm

Adopting an animal through whatever means come with great responsibility.

Recently dropped a g-note on my cat for xrays and a battery of tests just to confirm a simple bladder infection. After a week of administering oral antibiotics kitty is fine while her owner is still recovering from a few bite marks.

Pets are not status symbols, but in fact, family.

#50 Søren Angst on 06.05.22 at 3:31 pm

#37 Sail Away

I trained my dog, way back when, using

The New English Springer Spaniel

https://www.amazon.com/New-Complete-English-Springer-Spaniel/dp/0876051190

Half of it is for training Show Dogs, great for every day discipline, and the last half for training them as Hunting Dogs – mostly Upland Bird Game.

Superb book.

Used to walk my dog in Calgary (early 80s) near a large school yard and buddy and his dog (a beautiful Terrier). Buddy would curse and swear at how well my dog was trained vs. his “I spent $1,500 on that child born out of wedlock and he still doesn’t listen to me”.

He asked “Who trained your dog and what did it cost?”.

The book did.

I tried Barbara Woodhouse “walkies” with my dog and he would just look at me strange like (No Bad Dogs The Woodhouse Way)

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Barbara_Woodhouse

I still watched her on TV with my dog. I liked the kilt.

Book. Patience. Perseverance. Play time. Hugs. A lot of love. Is all it took (and the book). And that dog loved Italian food and Dairy Queen ice cream cones which I would hold for him while he licked it clean.

#51 Vaxx saved us on 06.05.22 at 3:45 pm

DELETED (Anti-vax)

#52 Søren Angst on 06.05.22 at 3:52 pm

#47 Jane24

Pension income from Gov Canada not taxed by Gov Italia and vice versa. There is a tax treaty about this.

Go to the Italian Consulate and inform yourself. Cdn Gov has the treaty online.

The healthcare is free if you are resident. Otherwise you pay. There are cheap expat insurance plans thru Generali and the like.

Heads Up: the UK is no longer in the EU. You pay.

https://www.salute.gov.it/portale/assistenzaSanitaria/dettaglioContenutiAssistenzaSanitaria.jsp?lingua=italiano&id=1764&area=Assistenza%20sanitaria&menu=vuoto

As for greasy fried food Portugal and their sand blast beaches you can have it. Spanish beaches are about the same in the sand blast department, e.g., Barcelona, Canary Islands, etc.

No thanks, give me the Amalfi Coast, Viareggio, Lignano, Tropea and hundred other Blue Flag beaches along Italia’s 7600 km of Mare Nostrum coastline, our culture, cuisine and La Dolce Vita any day, hands down.

——————

Lay off the travel magazine, wanting to live there web sites, esp. by Americani, they know nothing.

Oh, and Lisbon today was 24/14 vs. 32/18 in the NE where I live.

#53 Waystar Royco Shareholder on 06.05.22 at 4:00 pm

Lived in Kelowns for 23 years. It used to be a nice place to live, but not anymore.

Rampant drug use and crime all over the city. You can’t even leave your lawnmower in your shed or it will get stolen.

Its full of some of the phoniest, flakiest people you’ll ever meet, Con men and scammers around every corner.

Cloudy skies from November to June, fhen smoky skies from July to October.

The job market is brutal. Very low paying professional jobs and employers who think you should be happy to receive such a terrible wage in exchange for living in the “best place on Earth”

Terrible traffic jams, poorly laid out city streets, very few good amenities or restaurants, no culture to speak of, bad service

Even the lake has been destroyed. Polluted, dirty and Full of invasive species.

Moat locals say you pay the sunshine tax to live there…Not sure what sunshine they’re talking about

#54 Sail Away on 06.05.22 at 4:13 pm

#51 Søren Angst on 06.05.22 at 3:31 pm

Re: Springer and training

Springers are great- very friendly, family-oriented, eager to please and probably the best pheasant dogs out there. I/we have had three and they were all wonderful. Quite soft temperament for training. We do use Barbara Woodhouse’s methods but really follow Bill Tarrant and Delmar Smith. Haven’t tried the Springer book, but will keep it in mind. They remove the human from the equation, rather manipulating each interaction to reward or correction by dog action only. Happy pats and praise only from the handler.

I rarely speak to my dogs in the field. A few whistle toots here and there, but they know their jobs and are better at it than I am at mine. It’s amazing to see them all work together covering every inch of ground and indicating their findings through body language. So neat watching them cast back and forth sampling a breeze, then locking on and noodling out a trail. The only possible distraction that could be more interesting is a female in heat and not always even that. Single-minded heat-seeking, yet contemplative, missiles.

Surprisingly, they don’t care about investing at all.

#55 Reality is stark on 06.05.22 at 4:34 pm

T2:
Prints money like a drunken sailor.
Doesn’t manage costs.
Doesn’t pay attention to productivity just like George W. Bush.
Has a central banker behind the curve fighting inflation.
Has exacerbated the impending stagflation that will cripple the economy.
Firmly believes that debt leads to prosperity so he pursues more.
He is a fool and by voting for him you deserve the ugly ramifications of stagflation.
Closing is now a real estate nightmare. You honestly think people are going to accept a $500,000 loss in 3 months?
They will walk and the courts will be lenient. The rule of law in this country is long gone.
This socialist garbage show has ramifications for the average WOKE Canadian nincompoop.
I hope the 5 year hits 7 percent and the average car loan hits 10%, the dupkofs in this country deserve it.

#56 NOSTRADAMUS on 06.05.22 at 4:41 pm

5 LONG YEARS- THE VILLAGE IDIOT!
Thoughts on the old refrain, anyone who refrained from investing over the past 5 years has missed out on the once in a lifetime of tremendous monetary gains. WHOA! You only miss out if you get out at (or near) the top. The vast majority who have ridden the bull all the way to the top will ride it all the way down again. Such is investor psychology- which means you missed out on nothing and have borne the opportunity cost of being invested in worthless bubbles.
After the big real estate correction I suspect a lot of speculators will not be able to find their way back to their castle in the sky, it was all a fantasy world.
Most Canadians have spent the last few years with their noses pressed up against the proverbial bakery window watching the real estate speculators enjoying the life of ever increasing real estate appreciation and wealth. And these same speculators thumbed their noses with total indifference to the multitudes not favored by zero interest rates, big trust funds and political/corporate connections.
The only way a smart person can go broke is to borrow money.
Sadly, 75% of all divorces are initiated by a certain gender. As housing crashes and people go under water on their mortgages, divorces will explode. There is no tolerance for failure in today’s modern marriage. The fall out will be epic. The price one pays for buying near the top is likely to be catastrophic. So all you wanna be house buyers who missed out, give your wife a big hug, a lot of speculators will not be so lucky. Steady lads, hold the line.

#57 Barb on 06.05.22 at 4:50 pm

I’m sickened at the many stories of people giving up their adult dogs. Cruelty appears to have no limit.

#58 Søren Angst on 06.05.22 at 4:55 pm

#56 Sail Away

Hand signals in the field. I taught my guy that. He could be a few hundred yards away and would respond to what I wanted him to do using hand signals.

Also trained him on the whistle but when hunting, esp. pheasant, not the brightest idea. Hand signals the way to go.

Try the book, you will be happy. No need for handlers or trainers.

#59 Diamond Dog on 06.05.22 at 4:57 pm

#46 DON on 06.05.22 at 3:17 pm

We may just have a personality disorder on our hands. From the “knowing everything” moniker to the putdowns of the host and commenters, it seems quite logical at this point. The exaggerated feelings of self importance coupled with the diminished ability to emphasize with other’s feelings demonstrate a strong tendency toward NPD. It’s an early childhood thing, really. Not his fault but socially its still a square peg, round hole. We should take note. :/

#60 Dave Barker on 06.05.22 at 5:04 pm

DELETED (Anti-vaccine)

#61 Søren Angst on 06.05.22 at 5:05 pm

#56 Sail Away

Springers are the best for pheasant.

The pheasant has 2 choices when the dog is upon it:

1. Light. Whereupon crack shot me (then) never missed. *
2. Run. Whereupon the “Springer” name come into play.

I swear I saw that dog leap 5 ft at the apex and 15 ft away. They “Spring”, catch the pheasant in their soft mouths and bring it to you.

Saved a lot of 7-1/2’s that way.

Once, he brought back a hen and I told him no and released it. 10 min later he came with the same hen and offered up to my hunting companion.

Talk about giving, caring, sharing.

I miss that dog. He was sharp as a whip and one of my best friends ever.

* Me and my cheapo Savage side by side 26-3/4 in shotgun vs. the Beretta over and under crowd used for mauling geese.

First to hit limit was me, by a long country mile. Then I would shoot for them or give them some of my take.

My hunting buddies had cash but couldn’t hit the broad side of a barn if their lives depended upon it.

Miss it all to this day. Great memories. You keep adding to your larder of great memories.

#62 jess on 06.05.22 at 5:06 pm

“Dogs cost thousands”

A dog is one of the best investment you can do in your life.
======
until the vet bills come in

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/business/article-private-equity-buy-out-pharmacy-dental-office-veterinary-clinic/

#63 salonist on 06.05.22 at 5:08 pm

cat’s are evil
chihuahua’s bite
back end price increases are back at the grocery store.

meaning,the psychologists and statisticians have determined that weekly, your package has been resized smaller with less product.
phaze 1, pull the product from the store shelves to be downsized
now restock with a slightly undiscernible smaller package
faze 2 is implemented and any product left on the shelf from phaze 1.
pull it,dumpster it

rinse, repeat until the consumer believes he’s buying the same product as 2 months ago
of course price stays the same for less product

never give a child power of attorney
the good child will care for you

#64 jess on 06.05.22 at 5:12 pm

Your Tim Hortons Coffee App Knew Where You Were at All Times
The Canada-based company illegally collected “vast amounts of location data,” such as every time a person entered or left their home, workplace, or another coffee shop.
https://www.wired.com/story/tim-hortons-coffee-app-location-data-tracking/

… thanks to a Freedom of Information Act request filed by Jason Leopold of Buzzfeed News. Justice Department report, prepared by former US Attorney John Brash, found “no evidence that unmasking requests were made for political purposes or other inappropriate reasons during the 2016 election period or the ensuing transition period.” Flynn ultimately resigned in 2017 for misleading vice president Mike Pence about Flynn’s calls with Russia’s ambassador to the US.

#65 HH on 06.05.22 at 5:29 pm

I have a question. A real estate question. Here’s the situation. A person in BC has a couple of properties to sell. He hires a real estate agent. Along comes a buyer and puts down the deposit but does not complete the deal. Just walks away. The seller’s real estate agent then sues the seller for his fee. About $52,000. My question is how does a seller protect him/herself from this kind of situation?

#66 Diamond Dog on 06.05.22 at 5:46 pm

#55 Waystar Royco Shareholder on 06.05.22 at 4:00 pm

It saddens me to read this. I lived there in the late 90’s, early 2000’s and it was hip then, but regressing. I can only imagine what it’s like now. Can’t see what will keep prices from crashing there either with 5’ers headed for the 6’s and likely the 7’s. Smoke filled skies are one thing, but high rates is quite another.

But I digress. I liked Kelowna but one thing I never liked looking back was the drugs. Streets not designed for change, real estate replacing orchards, Okanagan lake changes, I can’t say growth has been kind to Kelowna but the drugs I think looking back, were the worst part of it.

We never say it enough, the strength of any community (and therefore real estate) is it’s people and there’s nothing more taxing on people or should I say young people, than Drugs.

#67 Sam on 06.05.22 at 5:48 pm

Lol my comment was deleted and I’m labelled anti vax. I’m not anti vax. I’m vaccinated. I’m merely suggesting if you’re going to call out the vaccine as the reason we’re getting back to normal that’s factually wrong. There are other factors also. For one people have demanded to return to normal. Also, the virus itself has become less lethal (this is according to WHO). Lastly, many people have natural immunity which helps the overall population. This comment will likely be deleted also but I am only S stating facts and opinions not anti vax. But I guess this is why we have so much divide in this country. People label others so quickly.

You seek to undermine Canadian public health initiatives. Canada vax rate = 88%. US vax rate = 67%. Deaths from Covid per 100,000 people in Canada = 94. Deaths per 100,000 in US = 280. It worked. Shame on you. – Garth

#68 Calgary Observer on 06.05.22 at 5:54 pm

I’m following the Calgary market closely and I’m seeing the rot in prices march steadily in from the edges to the more desirable inner city properties. The rot started in the far flung neighborhoods in March and it’s knocking at the door of the inner city now.

Most houses are going price reduced now, with owners waiting less than 10 days before dropping the asking. In the $600k – $800k segment, the price drops are $40K before someone bites.

Around 15% – 20% are back on market after the deal queers, or pulled from the market and coming back as a faux-fresh listing. Faux-fresh listings are coming back with significant drops, usually $60K – $80K. Drops of $100K at Sold are occurring. Closing and sold are two different animals, so it’s unknown how the appraisals are affecting the purchasers ability to close.

For the sellers, the lone bright spot is that the lower price point homes in the most desirable neighborhoods seem to be holding up so far, but the rot is fast approaching their borders as well.

Sky high oil prices don’t seem to be making much of a difference. The reason is simple; the downtown office vacancy rate is still sky-high so that means that the downtown oil companies are not going on a hiring binge. My guess is that they don’t expect the high oil prices to last, so they’re not hiring or handing out bonuses to any other than a select few of their most valuable employees.

Another interesting trend that I’m seeing is the rapid drop in inner city older homes on 50′ lots. These homes are usually purchased by developers and turned into infills or attached homes. The bump in interest rates looks to be enough to give pause for the developers.

Interesting times watching a train wreck in real time.

#69 The Original Jake on 06.05.22 at 5:59 pm

Enjoying my big monthly divs from leading Canadian restos, and capital gains in the airlines, hoteliers and slew of other beaten up sectors. March 2020 was the moment to capture it, not capitulate.

#70 Ponzius Pilatus on 06.05.22 at 6:02 pm

#68 Diamond Dog on 06.05.22 at 5:46 pm
#55 Waystar Royco Shareholder on 06.05.22 at 4:00 pm

It saddens me to read this. I lived there in the late 90’s, early 2000’s and it was hip then, but regressing. I can only imagine what it’s like now. Can’t see what will keep prices from crashing there either with 5’ers headed for the 6’s and likely the 7’s. Smoke filled skies are one thing, but high rates is quite another.

But I digress. I liked Kelowna but one thing I never liked looking back was the drugs. Streets not designed for change, real estate replacing orchards, Okanagan lake changes, I can’t say growth has been kind to Kelowna but the drugs I think looking back, were the worst part of it.
————–
I know, Drugs everywhere.
Shoppers Drug Mart, London Drugs.
Drugs are pretty well everywhere now.
Kelowna is not that special.

#71 Ponzius Pilatus on 06.05.22 at 6:10 pm

#67 HH on 06.05.22 at 5:29 pm
I have a question. A real estate question. Here’s the situation. A person in BC has a couple of properties to sell. He hires a real estate agent. Along comes a buyer and puts down the deposit but does not complete the deal. Just walks away. The seller’s real estate agent then sues the seller for his fee. About $52,000. My question is how does a seller protect him/herself from this kind of situation?
———
Answer:
Had you followed the advise on this blog, and not invested/gambled in Real Estate, you would not have this problem.

#72 Linda on 06.05.22 at 6:10 pm

Such big puppy eyes:) Get well soon, Chico!

Kelowna is nice to visit, but I wouldn’t want to live there. I can see however that lots of folks would & thus the price of RE dropping might see an influx of new owners.

#73 I don't know on 06.05.22 at 6:50 pm

#30 The Regulator on 06.05.22 at 2:12 pm

“Russia produces 25% of the worlds’ potash fertilizer. Add Belarusian potash and the figure is 45%. All sanctioned. Natural gas is used to make fertilizer, and E.U. plants are shutting down due to unprofitability. Who is really causing the coming food crisis?”

-The crisis was caused by Russia invading Ukraine, a sovereign nation, on February 24, 2022.

The rest is aftermath.

Russian prosperity has always been tied to good relations with Europe. Did invading Ukraine help in that regard?

The USSR couldn’t figure this out and paid the price, now it looks like history is repeating.

If you are trying to change the narrative, try harder.

IDK

#74 45north on 06.05.22 at 7:04 pm

By the way, mortgage rates at the major lenders head north again this week. Look for a 25-bip bump, taking the fiver to around 4.8% with a qualifying rate that is approaching 7%. There’s no way prices in any market in Canada – from Victoria to Halifax and out to the Rock – can withstand the impact of this. The market will freeze, prices fall meaningfully, then enough buyers must materialize to save it from a collapse, as we revert to the norm.

this is free fall. Why would buyers materialize? They won’t. People on this blog have commented on Kelowna in BC and Toronto in Ontario. The collapse of the real estate market is going to shake this country to the core.

#75 Squire on 06.05.22 at 7:16 pm

#67 HH on 06.05.22 at 5:29 pm
I have a question. A real estate question. Here’s the situation. A person in BC has a couple of properties to sell. He hires a real estate agent. Along comes a buyer and puts down the deposit but does not complete the deal. Just walks away. The seller’s real estate agent then sues the seller for his fee. About $52,000. My question is how does a seller protect him/herself from this kind of situation?

————————-
Too many missing details. Did the buyer have an agent, how did they walk away, has the seller discussed their options with a lawyer??? On cannot just walk away from a purchase. More details necessary….

#76 Sail Away on 06.05.22 at 7:17 pm

#67 HH on 06.05.22 at 5:29 pm

I have a question. A real estate question. Here’s the situation. A person in BC has a couple of properties to sell. He hires a real estate agent. Along comes a buyer and puts down the deposit but does not complete the deal. Just walks away. The seller’s real estate agent then sues the seller for his fee. About $52,000. My question is how does a seller protect him/herself from this kind of situation?

———-

Write the terms into the contract with the RE agent. A good general rule of thumb in business is to never blindly accept a contract presented by another party because it will almost certainly be skewed toward their benefit. Contracts are infinitely modifiable.

#77 Truth or Consequences on 06.05.22 at 7:32 pm

Perhaps somebody can explain the allure of Kelowna to me because I just don’t see it. It’s too hot in the summer and too cold, grey, and dreary in the winter. They have a major homeless and crime problem with street people everywhere. There are no real jobs or industry there. It’s in the middle of nowhere. Forest fires every year. Houses are not affordable for the average person. The rental vacancy rate is zero.

Kelowna also seems to attract schemers, scammers, and dreamers along with stuck up snobs.

But maybe I’m missing something there?

#78 Spread'em and weep on 06.05.22 at 7:32 pm

DELETED

#79 HH on 06.05.22 at 7:33 pm

#73 – I don’t have the problem. Someone else does.
Anyway, you didn’t answer my question. What advice are you referring to on this blog for the scenario that I explained.

#80 Dr V on 06.05.22 at 7:43 pm

73 Ponz

“Had you followed the advise on this blog, and not invested/gambled in Real Estate, you would not have this problem.”
————————————————-

Ponz – I think this is the case HH refers to

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/bc-commission-real-estate-lawsuit-decision-1.6433370

From the link

“She (judge) pointed out that Mike Armstrong is a professional accountant, and the couple has bought and sold property before.”

Ya gotta watch those accountants Ponz.

Anyways, to HHs question, looks like the sellers kept the deposit, but had to pay the realtor. so the answer is make sure the deposit is non-refundable, and as a minimum, that it covers all the commission. Now the
case also states that the sale is “legally enforceable” so
there is an option to sue the purchaser who walked if the deposit was a lesser amount.

#81 Sam on 06.05.22 at 7:43 pm

Here we go. Garth, you cannot simply compare Canada to US death rates. For one, Canada had the strictest lockdown. Even safe outdoor playgrounds were closed which is why we have a lot of growth in mental health incidences. Also, Canada is sparse and wide and lead much healthier lifestyles. We also had more mask mandates. There are so many factors why one country is doing better than another country. Why do people only focus on vaccine. Can’t you just admit there are a number of factors? What’s wrong with that? Besides how feasible is it to keep getting injected with vaccines every 3 months. We’re on Booster #5. I stopped at 2. Even if it works I can’t fathom going for injections every 3-6 months.

So don’t. – Garth

#82 Sam on 06.05.22 at 7:48 pm

India has a low vaccine rate 60% and they have significantly less deaths per infected than Canada. Can you explain this one? Funny you pick the Us to compare but there are other countries that are much less vaccinated than Canada and doing much better.

The US is our mirror society. Best possible comparison. – Garth

#83 Bob Hamilton on 06.05.22 at 7:55 pm

It’s different in Leaside, Lawrence Park, Summerhill etc.
Record highs.

#84 Dr V on 06.05.22 at 7:58 pm

73 oh and Ponz, the wording is standard in the MLS agreement. It has nothing to do with a seller
“gambling” in RE.

You’re acting like a jerk. Smarten up.

#85 AK on 06.05.22 at 7:59 pm

“Pity the folks who bought in the last few months.”
=================================

Indeed. Bag holders are not limited to just stock Investors.

#86 Yukon Elvis on 06.05.22 at 8:04 pm

#79 Truth or Consequences on 06.05.22 at 7:32 pm

Perhaps somebody can explain the allure of Kelowna to me because I just don’t see it. It’s too hot in the summer and too cold, grey, and dreary in the winter. They have a major homeless and crime problem with street people everywhere. There are no real jobs or industry there. It’s in the middle of nowhere. Forest fires every year. Houses are not affordable for the average person. The rental vacancy rate is zero.

Kelowna also seems to attract schemers, scammers, and dreamers along with stuck up snobs.

But maybe I’m missing something there?
+++++++++++++++++
I have lived in kelowna for 29 years. You are right. I don’t get it either but people just on keep coming here.

#87 AK on 06.05.22 at 8:07 pm

“If Bank Prime hits 5.20% and 5 – yr fixed rate mortgages edge over 6%, nothing can stop falling real estate prices. ”
====================================

These rates were last seen In 2005. During normal times.

Houses cost far less and debt was relatively minuscule then. – Garth

#88 AB on 06.05.22 at 8:12 pm

#69
Sam, you are speaking factually. It is mind boggling how Liberal/NDP supporters are so anti-freedom. We are over the pandemic. It is a national disgrace that the unvaccinated are discriminated against . No logical reason whatsoever to force truckers to lose their livelihoods other than socialist control. Same for the nonsense travel restrictions.

Pro-public health does not = anti-freedom. Nobody stopped you from shunning the vaccine and being a selfish coward. – Garth

#89 Warren-the-lagging_indicator on 06.05.22 at 8:26 pm

What kind of witchery is this?: “The only way I could stop that was to charge for my puppies what the market would bear.”
Because no one would buy them if you sold them at a reasonable price???
I am confused. Call me a name and then please explain it in dialectic terms for me as I am a little slow today.
Ps: I love puppies!

#90 VladTor on 06.05.22 at 8:33 pm

#1 Scott in Gibsons on 06.05.22 at 11:58 am

….I thought people were clamouring for cheaper houses. Here ya go. – Garth

**********

That’s right Garth, but I think that by the next election will no longer be the main problem. The main problem will be rent control and a decrease in the cost of rent. The number of poor tenants who lost money selling their homes will skyrocket. The one who proposes radical measures to solve the problems of renting/decrease cost for rent apartments will be a candidate for victory.

#91 The Regulator on 06.05.22 at 8:43 pm

# 75 – idk : You’re living up to your name daily.
IDK?

#92 Steve on 06.05.22 at 8:55 pm

One of your earlier predictions was the weed stocks, you hit that right on the nail, all of them are pretty much -80/90%. I noticed that by fluke the other day, and I was like goddamnit Garth is right again :)

#93 Wajid ali on 06.05.22 at 8:59 pm

DELETED (Pandemic and vaccine denier)

#94 The Regulator on 06.05.22 at 9:02 pm

# 75 – idk – You realize that Ukraine was THE most prosperous country in the U.S.S.R. at one time? Now it’s the second poorest European nation. Is that the Russians’ fault also? I’m just pointing out facts, and the E.U. is destroying itself to punish Russia, which seems rather short sighted. Don’t you agree?

#95 Sail Away on 06.05.22 at 9:23 pm

#65 salonist on 06.05.22 at 5:08 pm

never give a child power of attorney
the good child will care for you

———

Terrible advice.

Have you ever tried to properly care for an incapable parent without POA? Even with POA can be a pain. Especially banks.

#96 HH on 06.05.22 at 9:25 pm

#77 – It’s going to court. I believe the real estate agent was representing both sides, God knows why it was set up that way, but I don’t think the seller should be responsible for the buyer’s actions.

#97 Mattl on 06.05.22 at 9:36 pm

The Kelowna bashing is interesting. The fires have definitely been bad of recent but I don’t recognize all the other issues stated.

No amenities? Some of the best golf and skiing in Canada, swimming at beaches up and down the lake. Polluted lake? The Rainbows and Kokanee have rebounded the past few years, lots of 16-20# fish coming out.

Others seem to agree, it is one of the fastest growing cities in Canada. RE will and should retreat significantly, prices here like elsewhere are ridiculous. But Kelowna was late to the RE party, look at growth since 2008….was mostly flat until 2016.

My bet would be 30% down then flat for a long time. Like a decade long. If it gets anywhere near 50% we are buyers in a big way. That would get you a lakeview home, acreage, walk to the beach for 700-800k, @ 225 per sqft. Well below builder cost.

Possible, and would be amazing, but I can’t see it. But the boom is definitely over and has been for 6 weeks, the stuff we drive by has been up since April. Nothing over 800k apprears to be selling.

Interesting times. If homes do decline like that, at least I’ll be able to find a tiler, carpenter, landscaper, or plumber. This market has impossible to source labour. I welcome saner times.

#98 Mattl on 06.05.22 at 9:42 pm

#79 – where do you live? Every place has strengths and weaknesses. For instance when you say there is no industry / jobs, you must mean in your industry. If you are in any of the trades, or hospitality, there are unlimited opportunities.

And some of us like to golf, hike, camp, fish, ski, swim. Mild winters. Warm summers.

The fires, which are a relatively recent phenomenon related to pine kill and hot temps, suck. In order to know how bad they suck, share your location.

#99 Quintilian on 06.05.22 at 9:46 pm

Test
Why can’t I post?

Your mom called. – Garth

#100 crowdedelevatorfartz on 06.05.22 at 9:58 pm

@#101 Quinty’s Quandry
“Test
Why can’t I post?

Your mom called. – Garth”

+++
Way past his bedtime?

#101 Diamond Dog on 06.05.22 at 10:00 pm

#99 Mattl on 06.05.22 at 9:36 pm

Give it more time.

Wenn die Nacht kommt, beschäftigen sich die Faulen

#102 Paul on 06.05.22 at 10:03 pm

#79

You’re not missing anything. Kelowna has been living on borrowed time and the collapse will be epic.

#103 Yukon Elvis on 06.05.22 at 10:07 pm

#96 Mattl on 06.05.22 at 9:36 pm

The Kelowna bashing is interesting. The fires have definitely been bad of recent but I don’t recognize all the other issues stated.

No amenities? Some of the best golf and skiing in Canada, swimming at beaches up and down the lake. Polluted lake? The Rainbows and Kokanee have rebounded the past few years, lots of 16-20# fish coming out.
++++++++++++++++
Golf can be ok some days if the heat and smoke are not too bad. Skiing can be ok too if it is not too foggy. Beaches are small and have some sand on the shores but rocky once u get in the water. Big fish are pretty rare, lots of boats and fishermen. Lots of goose poop on the beaches and in the water, some people get a skin reaction to that. Campfire bans put a crimp in camping. Not to mention the smoke. Kids are often kept indoors during the summer cuz of the bad air quality. Seniors too. Traffic can be awful during tourist season. Everything except fruit is more expensive here than in the Lower Mainland. I live here and this is what I see.

#104 AB on 06.05.22 at 10:08 pm

#90 Garth reply
I am vaccinated. Three times. All of my immediate and extended family are vaccinated and we are thankful for this. I have empathy for those who do not endorse medical tyranny however. Freedom of choice is paramount to living in a democracy. Your presumptuous response confirms my support for Wexit.

That made no sense. And ‘the west’ cannot and will not secede. – Garth

#105 Observer on 06.05.22 at 10:08 pm

#84 Sam on 06.05.22 at 7:48 pm
India has a low vaccine rate 60% and they have significantly less deaths per infected than Canada. Can you explain this one? Funny you pick the Us to compare but there are other countries that are much less vaccinated than Canada and doing much better.

^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^

More than 4.7 million people in India – nearly 10 times higher than official records suggest – are thought to have died because of Covid-19, according to a new World Health Organization (WHO) report.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-india-60981318

#106 Quintilian on 06.05.22 at 10:33 pm

Geriatrics gang brutality!

#107 Ponzius Pilatus on 06.05.22 at 10:51 pm

#97 Sail Away on 06.05.22 at 9:23 pm
#65 salonist on 06.05.22 at 5:08 pm

never give a child power of attorney
the good child will care for you

———

Terrible advice.

Have you ever tried to properly care for an incapable parent without POA? Even with POA can be a pain. Especially banks.
—————————-
Gotta agree with salonist.
Especially when there are other children.

#108 Dallas X on 06.05.22 at 10:55 pm

Don’t agree. “Central Toronto prices may not fall as far”. Really? Dream on Pal. Historically, where the speculation is at its frothiest and buyers mostly speculators, values fall most and fast because of the preponderance of multi unit buyers. Borrow more , feel more pain. Expect a sudden drop in the higher credit club. The doctors etc that bought a few places can dump withdraw and recover on high wages.

The Burbs fall less violently but fall steadily because Mom and Pop try to keep up with payments by budgeting until payments on higher rates strangle even the KD dinners. Expect the pain here to be longer and drawn out. These little people can’t dump and recover. Many will be financially ruined and will feel the losses for decades.

#109 Overheardyou on 06.05.22 at 10:57 pm

Is a recession materializes in 2023-2024, would it exacerbate the decline in house prices?

#110 Ponzius Pilatus on 06.05.22 at 11:01 pm

#86 Dr V on 06.05.22 at 7:58 pm
73 oh and Ponz, the wording is standard in the MLS agreement. It has nothing to do with a seller
“gambling” in RE.

You’re acting like a jerk. Smarten up.
—————————
What’s the issue here?
Lots of trouble in the world, and you’re fretting over a guy who did not do his due diligence.
And, BTW there are lots of stupid accountants out there.
They’re just as greedy as the next Greater Fool.

#111 Anna on 06.05.22 at 11:04 pm

Too bad we have people breeding dogs when there are so many dogs in shelters right now.

#112 Ponzius Pilatus on 06.05.22 at 11:05 pm

#105 Yukon Beatle
If Kelowna is so bad, why don’t you move?
Asking for a friend.

#113 Doug in London on 06.05.22 at 11:21 pm

So dogs were in high demand for the last 2 years and now there’s an oversupply. Didn’t anyone else see this coming? I figure if anyone wanted a dog they should have waited until now when they are plentiful and much cheaper.

#114 Dr V on 06.05.22 at 11:30 pm

112 Ponz

“What’s the issue here?
Lots of trouble in the world, and you’re fretting over a guy who did not do his due diligence.”
————————————————–

What dont you get here Ponz? I’ll repeat it.

The wording is STANDARD in the MLS agreement. It has NOTHING to do with a seller “gambling” in RE.

It is something EVERYONE who uses a realtor must be made aware of.

#115 Midnight’s on 06.05.22 at 11:34 pm

DELETED

#116 Victoria on 06.05.22 at 11:43 pm

Yukon Elvis – sounds like Victoria

I would love to see delusional Victoria get a reality check. Again EVERYONE IN THE WORLD wants to live here. Some guy said the other day RE is worth the price because he saw a Whale or something.

It has been raining here for 8 months and we were all in winter coats yesterday. I have lived in a few cities and this is probably the most depressing. A homeless guy spit on my car last month – while I was driving.

#117 AB on 06.05.22 at 11:44 pm

#106
Never say never. Border’s have changed through history. It is what it is is. I know what side I am on regardless of the outcome. People have an inherent compass for truth and the Liberal/NDP nonsense does not cut it. You are entitled to you foolish Liberal loyalties. Good bye.

#118 Yukon Elvis on 06.05.22 at 11:53 pm

#114 Ponzius Pilatus on 06.05.22 at 11:05 pm

#105 Yukon Beatle
If Kelowna is so bad, why don’t you move?
Asking for a friend.
+++++++++++++
I have kids and grandkids here. I like to spend time with them so I have a condo in town. I come and go when i am in the mood. Covid has restricted my movements for the last little while but i will probably leave again when the smoke comes.

#119 SOMETHINGS UP!! on 06.06.22 at 12:36 am

The more I think of the B.S. that goes on throughout this planet the more I just think about joining Elon on a 1 way trip to the moon.

#120 KNOW IT ALL on 06.06.22 at 12:40 am

MORTGAGE = Modern day slavery.

The banks got you all slicing and dicing your throats and wrists over this interest rate, that interest rate, this price, that location.

You peasant fools!

#121 Shannon on 06.06.22 at 12:58 am

Just watched the Queens Jubilee. What joy . The mandatory free people show the true spirit on personal freedom. Shame on Trudeau for his attempt to rob Canada of our place in history, for continuing to enforce his anti science mandates for some bizarre reason. Free Canada. No more Trudeaus middle finger. We are leaderless while our people’s spirit and our economy drops precipitously. We need responsive leadership not a WEF nightmare social/economic experiment.

#122 DebVan on 06.06.22 at 1:46 am

You seek to undermine Canadian public health initiatives. Canada vax rate = 88%. US vax rate = 67%. Deaths from Covid per 100,000 people in Canada = 94. Deaths per 100,000 in US = 280. It worked. Shame on you. – Garth
————————

This simple metric isn’t nuanced enough and doesn’t account for varying cultural differences, general populace health, respect for authority and adherence to other public health guidance. The United States is not Canada and Canada is not the United States.

For example Italy has a vaccination rate that is comparable to Canada’s but a death rate that is much closer to that of the US. Also Chile has a vaccination rate far better than Canada’s but has a death rate the same as the US. Other factors are at play here.

#123 Faron on 06.06.22 at 2:32 am

#42 Sail Away on 06.05.22 at 2:48 pm

Purebred tool

Yes. Yes you are.

#124 Barry on 06.06.22 at 2:52 am

I have zero sympathy for anyone who charged into real estate with limited funds and a prayer, as well as zero sympathy for those living on margin to buy Netflix or other “growth” stocks when they were hot. It’s VERY rare to “get rich quick” despite what we’re being told by a barrage of advertisers. You bought it, your problem. But who listens to me?

#125 Ivor Mektyn on 06.06.22 at 3:00 am

No doubt we’re in the 1st inning of a RE collapse – and it’s about time!
Unless, of course, they lock us down again for Monkeypox – or whatever other boogeyvirus they’re brewing over at Woo-han.
If so, it will be round 2 of WFH and people will resume purchasing the 3 Ps like there’s no tomorrow.

We shall see…

#126 Barry on 06.06.22 at 3:01 am

#178
“Someone spit on my car”

I’m 70 and grew up in Vancouver. It’s not my city anymore. The other day I went into a lovely bakery on Davie and as i was paying I put my phone on the counter. The owner instinctively took it off and then apologized, ” I’ve had street people take my phone right off the counter” he said, then waved to the street “it’s a mess out there”. Great. But aren’t the mountains and sea pretty gazing out from 2 million dollar condos?

#127 under the radar on 06.06.22 at 4:29 am

67- on the Listing agreement insert,
” Notwithstanding anything to the contrary, Seller shall not be liable to pay commission unless the sale is successfully completed by the parties on the scheduled completion date. ”

If the agent doesn’t like the clause, get another agent.

#128 dosouth on 06.06.22 at 6:57 am

#10 Flop… on 06.05.22 at 12:49 pm…

———————————————–

Corpus Christie, the flea market capital of Texas and one of the dirtiest…..been there, left that. Just Google Corpus Christi crime rate….

“With a crime rate of 43 per one thousand residents, Corpus Christi has one of the highest crime rates in America compared to all communities of all sizes – from the smallest towns to the very largest cities. One’s chance of becoming a victim of either violent or property crime here is one in 23.”

#129 Dharma Bum on 06.06.22 at 8:05 am

#76 45 North

The collapse of the real estate market is going to shake this country to the core.
——————————————————————————————————–

So?

Then all the whining cry babies will finally be able to buy a house.

Problem solved.

Oh yes…I forgot….they are whiny cry babies, so they will find some other issue to whine, moan, and cry about.

#130 the Jaguar on 06.06.22 at 8:12 am

@#79 Truth or Consequences on 06.05.22 at 7:32 pm++

It’s very picturesque. Rolling hills with deep winding azure blue lakes that wind from Vernon through to Penticton area. In the sixties it was more of a retirement community with a beach town vibe. I spent many summers weeks there at my grandparents homes on both Ethel and Richter enjoying the beaches, Canadian peaches, apricots and cherries and warm early mornings. There were no jet skis in those days, and there weren’t as many fires, but then there weren’t as many people to start them. Kalamalka Lake is the jewel.

Gradually things changed as the hippies, Hell’s Angels, and other elements came in. The other elements were largely people with money from other places with stronger economies, especially Albertans, but many also from the lower mainland. Money spoils a lot of things because it can create inequality and resentment. It’s not a place of quiet charm anymore, for sure.

The heat can be oppressive in the summer and the traffic horrible throughout south and north Okanagan. Air quality can be poor year round. Lots of restrictions around that issue. Although not publicized much the grey skies from October to May are extremely depressing, but so is Vancouver during their winter season. You are either wired for that or not. Van Island has some similar issues. Many choose Parksville or Qualicum Beach area for that reason, despite the chat here about Victoria. Nanaimo offerings are nearby. As for drugs, indeed they are quite prevalent in the Okanagan, as is the homeless issue. Easy to get things across the border from the US under all that tree camoflauge. Hardly unique to the area these days, getting worse and likely to get out of control everywhere if the economy stalls. Somewhere between Gotham City and Blade Runner. Everything goes, and nothing matters.

#131 crowdedelevatorfartz on 06.06.22 at 8:22 am

@#108 Quinty’s Quibbling
“Geriatrics gang brutality!”
++
You forgot “Boomer”.

#132 crowdedelevatorfartz on 06.06.22 at 8:28 am

@#115 Doug
“I figure if anyone wanted a dog they should have waited until now when they are plentiful and much cheaper.”

+++
It’s our instant gratification, then toss the plastic wrapper out the car window, mentality.
Why wait when I can have it now now now.

And if I get bored of it or the responsibility is too great…my parents ( or in this case… the dog shelter) will deal with it.
Back to the cocoon in the basement to suck my thumb.
Life is hard. So unfair. My problems are Boomers fault.

#133 Brian on 06.06.22 at 9:47 am

DELETED

#134 Observer on 06.06.22 at 9:49 am

Correction, crash or capitulation?

According to an article in Business Insider:

A real estate correction is relatively minor drop in the market. The market is in correction territory when the home price index falls not more than 10% from the highest price within a year.

When the home price index falls by more than 10% from the 52 week peak value, you’re experiencing a crash.

Crashes are relatively rare, and are usually accompanied by a strong decline in economic macros. Strong declines in macros are also known as recessions.

Real estate capitulation is an extremely rare sight to see, but it does happen. This is also known as panic selling, and is marked by a more than 10% decline in a very short period of time – often less than a month. Market capitulation is usually followed by a brief pause, and maybe even a bump up in prices before resuming declines. These are unlikely without a massive loss in confidence over the currency, and local government.

https://www.businessinsider.com/difference-between-crash-and-correction-2017-07

#135 Brian on 06.06.22 at 9:53 am

If Carbon Is At Levels Not Seen for Millions of Years..?
If Carbon Is At Levels Not Seen for Millions of Years..?
How to explain the problematic contradictions?

From Forbes “Carbon Dioxide Peaked In 2022 At Levels Not Seen For Millions Of Years”

Quoting:

“Carbon dioxide levels are now comparable to the Pliocene Climatic Optimum, between 4.1 and 4.5 million years ago, when they were close to, or above 400 parts per million. During that time, sea levels were between 5 and 25 meters higher than today, high enough to drown many of the world’s largest modern cities. “

And yet many of the world’s largest modern cities are not under water. In fact there are no modern cities under water.
Because sea levels are in fact “between 5 and 25 meters” lower now then they were then.
Therefore carbon dioxide levels can’t be the issue. As is claimed.

“ studies indicate that large forests occupied today’s Arctic tundra.”

Now, at this present time, it’s alleged we are experiencing comparable carbon dioxide levels to that bygone time. That’s what is being claimed. Yet the Arctic is not occupied by large forests. It is in fact still occupied by ice, cold and permafrost.

Therefore carbon dioxide levels can’t be the big issue as is repeatedly claimed.

“Within the next 25 years, many glaciers in the Alps, Rocky Mountains”

Shouldn’t they be gone already? Considering the claims made. I’d certainly think so. The science is refutable. It’s the dogma (a belief or set of beliefs that is accepted by the members of a group without being questioned or doubted) that isn’t.

#136 cropgrower on 06.06.22 at 10:25 am

$3500-$6000 so you can be a Mommy or Daddy to a puppy…….Haha,some people amaze me.

#137 Brian on 06.06.22 at 10:38 am

ECONOMIC BLOWBACK FROM RUSSIAN SANCTIONS

We are in a brutal bear market. If the last bear market of length was 2000-2002 (2 1/2 years) , then this one has the makings of much worse. How much worse is hard to say.

Obviously we are not in a bear market for equities, brutal or otherwise. – Garth

#138 Former cubicle dweller on 06.06.22 at 10:44 am

Hi Garth, what are some of the factors you see that might reign in the oil prices? OPEC is not increasing production and a “soft landing” recession will mean the demand keeps up. Would love to hear you guys’ thoughts in tomorrow’s podcast.

#139 Ponzius Pilatus on 06.06.22 at 10:50 am

#129 under the radar on 06.06.22 at 4:29 am
67- on the Listing agreement insert,
” Notwithstanding anything to the contrary, Seller shall not be liable to pay commission unless the sale is successfully completed by the parties on the scheduled completion date. ”

If the agent doesn’t like the clause, get another agent.
—————————-
Ah,
The famous “Notwithstanding Clause”.
Get another lawyer.

#140 DON on 06.06.22 at 11:13 am

#131 Dharma Bum on 06.06.22 at 8:05 am
#76 45 North

The collapse of the real estate market is going to shake this country to the core.
——————————————————————————————————–

So?

Then all the whining cry babies will finally be able to buy a house.

Problem solved.

Oh yes…I forgot….they are whiny cry babies, so they will find some other issue to whine, moan, and cry about.

********

Wow, who is whining now?

#141 Faron on 06.06.22 at 11:30 am

#137 Brian on 06.06.22 at 9:53 am

Really? Time, the answer is time. I.e. when you preheat your oven it takes time to get hot. When you pull an icecube out of the freezer it takes time to melt. Etc.

#142 Faron on 06.06.22 at 11:47 am

#96 The Regulator on 06.05.22 at 9:02 pm
# 75 – idk – You realize that Ukraine was THE most prosperous country in the U.S.S.R. at one time? Now it’s the second poorest European nation

One of the funniest things I’ve read. A prosperous state in a dirt poor republic is going to be poorer than a poor country in a rich union.

#143 Sail Away on 06.06.22 at 11:51 am

Nanaimo update:

The mountain bike club unveiled a completely rebuilt Bob’s Your Uncle trail Saturday. This has been under construction all winter, so yesterday afternoon, the dog and I did a long, leisurely tour, planning to take the new trail down.

Result: The first feature was an 8′ rock drop. Nope. An audience of youths watched me abort and helpfully offered tips on easier ways down. Today’s kids are ok.

#144 Shawn on 06.06.22 at 12:15 pm

Energy dollars

I don’t think it is fully understood just how massive the amount of dollars that energy is currently bringing into Canada (mostly Alberta) are.

As of Q1 2022 Energy exports annualized were $192.2 billion and amount to 7.1% of GDP. Energy imports (presumably mostly to Ontario) were $38.5 billion.

No other industry is remotely close to Energy as an export bringing money into Canada. Motor vehicles is now a distant 5th place at $77 billion. Exports are important because in a sense they are needed to pay for all the things Canada imports.

Talk about Alberta Advantage!

https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/t1/tbl1/en/tv.action?pid=1210013401&pickMembers%5B0%5D=2.2&pickMembers%5B1%5D=3.1&pickMembers%5B2%5D=4.2&cubeTimeFrame.startMonth=01&cubeTimeFrame.startYear=2022&cubeTimeFrame.endMonth=01&cubeTimeFrame.endYear=2022&referencePeriods=20220101%2C20220101

#145 tc-contra on 06.06.22 at 12:43 pm

DELETED (Anti-vaccine)

#146 TheDood on 06.06.22 at 12:46 pm

#79 Truth or Consequences on 06.05.22 at 7:32 pm
Perhaps somebody can explain the allure of Kelowna to me because I just don’t see it. It’s too hot in the summer and too cold, grey, and dreary in the winter. They have a major homeless and crime problem with street people everywhere. There are no real jobs or industry there. It’s in the middle of nowhere. Forest fires every year. Houses are not affordable for the average person. The rental vacancy rate is zero.

Kelowna also seems to attract schemers, scammers, and dreamers along with stuck up snobs.

But maybe I’m missing something there?
________________________________

The allure you speak of refers to what the area was many years ago. It used to be a great place to go and spend a week with friends – campgrounds near the beach, nice cheap motels (mom and pop run), music festivals, mushrooms (wink wink!), steamy hot weather, nice tans everywhere you look, etc. The word spread and soon it turned into a summer tourist trap, this all happened right around the same time RE became an ‘investment’ in this country, the allure disappeared over night. I was shocked during my last visit to Kelowna, needles in parks and hotel parking lots, homelessness, big box stores, summer traffic, etc. It is but a shadow of what it used to be.

#147 Shawn on 06.06.22 at 12:50 pm

Who’s Bringing Home the Bacon?

I’m just updating an article I maintain on GDP and Exports and Imports.

Sure I’m biased for Alberta these days, but facts are facts.

Energy is bringing home the bacon to Canada especially now with high prices. And that means Alberta is bringing home the bacon.

Metals, Farm and Forestry are also net exports for Canada as of Q1 2022 annualized. They total $75 billion. Energy net exports alone are more than double that at $159 billion.

Wow, Alberta Advantage! (Yes, only while it lasts, but gotta make hay while the sun shines)

#148 Mel Bourne on 06.06.22 at 12:59 pm

Sunshine, Lollipops And Rainbows
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CdqCvaYcido

#149 Old Boot on 06.06.22 at 1:06 pm

#145 Sail Away on 06.06.22 at 11:51 am

Nanaimo update:

The mountain bike club unveiled a completely rebuilt Bob’s Your Uncle trail Saturday. This has been under construction all winter, so yesterday afternoon, the dog and I did a long, leisurely tour, planning to take the new trail down.

Result: The first feature was an 8′ rock drop. Nope. An audience of youths watched me abort and helpfully offered tips on easier ways down. Today’s kids are ok.

***********

There’s a reason why the Whistler Bike Park produces, on average, one spinal cord injury per week during it’s summer season. A former colleague’s professional bike rider son was killed trail riding in Mexico. Emulating professionals, who also die and paralyze themselves, is a recipe for disability. Good call.

#150 Faron on 06.06.22 at 1:09 pm

#145 Sail Away on 06.06.22 at 11:51 am

Cool story bro. Literally 0 people care.

#151 millmech on 06.06.22 at 2:06 pm

#145 Sail Away
Beautiful trails abound behind Naramata, the three blind mice trail system is incredible with adrenaline fuel drops and turns along with stunning views of the valley. As you noted it is a young mans game and every year someone is airlifted out, and they are around our age, reflexes slow and trees and rocks mess you up. I trail ride with a Norco Scrambler and use a book titled “Sweet Single Tracks” that has maps and GPS waypoints for a lot of trails for all levels.
Heading up there this weekend to ride a few trails with friends and visit the local breweries.

#152 Brett in Calgary on 06.06.22 at 2:29 pm

#70 Calgary Observer on 06.05.22 at 5:54 pm
=============================
Interesting. In Olds (45mins out of Calgary) where I am watching, 20% of listings are “reduced”. But what is striking, is the 40% decrease in market volume from last June. Usually 100-120 places for sale this time of year, but in 2022, there are 65. I suppose it means folks are scared to sell…

#153 Dr V on 06.06.22 at 2:58 pm

152 Faron – a few posters found sailos comment worth
reading.

As the designated blog climate change expert your response to [email protected] is also appreciated, though the answer seemed so obvious I thought I was missing something.

Also agreed a “rich” SSR wasnt exactly a win for the citizens.

#154 tc-contra on 06.06.22 at 3:02 pm

#152 Faron on 06.06.22 at 1:09 pm

#145 Sail Away on 06.06.22 at 11:51 am

Cool story bro. Literally 0 people care.
====================================

Every ‘village’ needs an idiot. Faron, you are it at GF