Help wanted

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RYAN   By Guest Blogger Ryan Lewenza
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There’s a lot of chatter right now about an approaching US recession, which is somewhat warranted given the negative GDP print we saw in the first quarter and all the current headwinds (inflation, rate hikes, Ukraine, China etc.). What seems to be missing from this narrative is what will be the main drivers of this potential recession and what will happen to the critical jobs market. From my lens the US labour market is as strong as I’ve seen in decades and is showing little signs of stalling out. Given this I’m hard pressed to see a major economic contraction around the corner.

Today I’m going to do a deep dive on the US and Canadian labour markets and review this week’s solid US job numbers for the month of May.

First, since the pandemic lows in 2020 the US economy has added back a staggering 20 million jobs (845k monthly average over the last two years), which has helped to drive down the US unemployment rate to a near-record low of 3.6%.

On Friday we received the US nonfarm payroll numbers with the US economy adding another 390,000 jobs in May. As seen in the chart below this extends the long stretch of job gains since early 2020, putting the US economy within an earshot of recouping every job lost from the pandemic-led recession.

The job gains have been wide spread across many key industries including the construction, financial services, information technology, transportation and warehouses and professional and business services sectors, with all these industries surpassing their pre-Covid employment highs in early 2020.

The main industry still lagging behind is the leisure and hospitality industry, which remains below its pre-pandemic peak. But I see this industry picking up as Covid-19 turns endemic and people get more comfortable with dinning out, flying on planes, and attending different events (I just went to my first music concert this week since the pandemic hit).

US Economy Added Another 390k Jobs in May

Source: Bloomberg, Turner Investments

It’s a similar story here in Canada with nearly 3.5 million jobs being created since the 2020 recession. This incredible run of job gains has helped to drive our unemployment rate to 5.2%, which is the lowest level reached since 1976 (this is the farthest my data goes back)!

So we’re witnessing the lowest unemployment rates in nearly 50 years for the North American economy. This is demonstrably bullish and a clear sign that the economy is doing well right now, contrary to what you hear from the bears and media.

Unemployment Rates are at Record Lows

Source: Bloomberg, Turner Investments

And the strength doesn’t stop there.

In addition to the strong job gains, wages are up nicely, with wages up 5.2% and 4.2% yoy, in the US and Canada, respectively. Now, with inflation up 7-8% yoy some are actually down a bit when adjusted for inflation, but still, with more people working than ever and wages on the rise, this is clearly a sign of strength in the North American economy.

Despite these record low unemployment rates and what historically would be defined as ‘full employment’, there are still tons, records in fact, of job opportunities/vacancies.

Below I chart the total job openings in the US and they are at a record high of 11 million job vacancies, which is greater than all the current unemployed people in the US. There’s literally more jobs available than able-bodied Americans who are looking for work.

In Canada there are currently over a million job posting vacancies, also a record high, so there’s no shortage of job opportunities out there.

More Job Openings than Unemployed Workers in the US

Source: Bloomberg, Turner Investments

Another good indicator I look at when analyzing the US labour market is the ‘quits ratio’ and how many people are quitting their jobs voluntarily. The quits ratio, which calculates the percentage of workers who quit their job voluntarily compared to all workers who were separated from their employer, sits at a record high of 2.6%. In fact, last month over 4.4 million Americans quit their jobs, which suggests American’s are feeling pretty good about their job prospects and finding a new job. You generally don’t quit your job unless you feel pretty confident that you’ll line up another one fairly quickly.

Americans are Quitting their Jobs at a Record Pace

Source: Bloomberg, Turner Investments

Looking at a number of different employment statistics it’s clear that the labour markets are rocking right now in the US and Canada. At the end of the day jobs are the most important aspect of any economy, especially in North American where consumer spending represents 70% of total economic activity. Until we see these employment trends reverse and the job gains turn to losses, as is always the case in a recession, I see the US/global economy slowing as result of all these headwinds, but see a deep and protracted recession as remote.

Finally, for those out there who are looking for work or considering a career change, then take a look at the table below which highlights 17 of the highest demand jobs in Canada. If you’re looking for a new job I would start with this list and start working on the required education/work experience.

Jobs are out there, you just need to know where to look and how to secure that great and rewarding job/career that will pay the bills, provide you with a sense of purpose and direction, and provide financial stability.

The whole FIRE movement doesn’t really appeal to this guy! Call me old school.

17 High-Demand Jobs in Canada

Click to enlarge. Source: Government of Canada’s Job Bank
Ryan Lewenza, CFA, CMT is a Partner and Portfolio Manager with Turner Investments, and a Senior Investment Advisor, Private Client Group, of Raymond James Ltd.

 

117 comments ↓

#1 Andrewski on 06.04.22 at 8:46 am

Thanks for the (early) post Ryan. Maybe you wanted to post before watching the Swiatek vs Gauff French Open Final. Go Polska.
Why does it seem like the medias mandate is to be so negative about the strong job numbers?

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#3 Paul on 06.04.22 at 9:04 am

Tech is singing a different tune. Lots of layoffs and hiring freezes.

#4 Ponzius Pilatus on 06.04.22 at 9:12 am

The
Labour Unions are becoming vogue again.
Be prepared to pay even more for your morning Java.
And more for gas, idling in the take out lanes.

#5 ogdoad on 06.04.22 at 9:25 am

FIRE appeals to me hugely. Travel when I want. Gym daily. No time constraints (don’t wear a watch or carry a phone). New tats. Jog whenever. Smelling the flowers. Hunting for hugs, oxy and smiles (finding success too, btw – inquire within). Eating good food. Leisure time. Watching/playing football. Changing the style. Discovering new music. Reading good books. Sig. is ‘happy’ – little blues, baby.

I could go on and on….but I’m sure y’all gotta hit the cubicle…muschi’s here anyway…oxy’s comin’ early today…

Happy Saturday!

Og

#6 TurnerNation on 06.04.22 at 9:32 am

Price inflation. What is the Long Game here?
Possibly the War on Small Business.
Would you pay $30 for a burger and fries?
Nope. Your local burger shop would be closed.

McDonald’s and Burger Thing will be fine.
They have the long term contracts, economy of scale, vertical and horizontal integration.
Heck they could buy some farms and pay slave labor wages to feed their assembly line.

March 2020 was the rollout. The data gathering stage. Yes your local small business is ‘non essential’.

Ontariowe installed the same ruling junta again. There is nothing that this regime will not accomplish.
The so called news is drumming up monkeypox.
You will be wearing Your Mask until 2025 if not forever.
Compliance and submission is proven.
What’s next on the global agenda. .

#7 Veratatis on 06.04.22 at 9:42 am

FIRE does work if you know what you want. To each their own. As for this blog, thank you but I believe in the words of John Bogle regarding future markets (or anything for that matter) – “Nobody knows nothing”

#8 Doctor Know on 06.04.22 at 9:43 am

You generally don’t quit your job unless you feel pretty confident that you’ll line up another one fairly quickly.

________

Or you really hate your job because it provides little or no satisfaction or longer term economic stability.

Either way, jobs numbers can change in a heartbeat. Especially when nutcases like Musk profess to wanting to cut 10% of his labor force.

#9 LewenzaCountry aka Prince Polo on 06.04.22 at 9:54 am

Did you cut the chart off at 17 because 18th high demand job was Portfolio Manager’s Porsche Washer?

#10 Flop… on 06.04.22 at 10:06 am

Diary of a government worker.

Well, it’s been a year since I tried something different work-wise.

On Rhino’s worker mobility issue, my favourite guy to work with in the department, just handed in his leaving notice as he got a better paying job, and he has a new mortgage and a kid on the way, so he probably made the right decision.

That leaves me at 47, the baby of the department with a bunch of dusty curmudgeons, wondering if I can hang on until the wave makers are put out to pasture.

My body is feeling worn out, I went too hard, too early, I want to retire at 60, even if that means beans on toast every day.

I can see the finish line off in the distance, just gotta find a way to get there, or die trying…

M47BC

#11 crowdedelevatorfartz on 06.04.22 at 10:12 am

I cant argue with the numbers.
I’m sure they are absolutely correct.
However.
Do the job numbers count those that aren’t looking for work?
Pre covid there were a few place with “Help Wanted” signs.
Now?
EVERYONE is looking for employees.
Where did they all go?
Quit and never want to come back?
Thats great for the people who can afford to quit and job hunt but the problem seems much bigger than just job jumpers.
Where are the workers? Every company i deal with and talk to all across Canada and the US has the same problem.
Not enough workers and the the higher wages arent bringing them back in.
Everywhere has a shortage of parts, shelves empty, waiting for deliveries, etc etc etc.
I ordered a pallet of material from the US a few weeks back. It cleared Canada Customs 3 days after the order was placed and then it sat, and sat and sat in a warehouse in the Lower Brainland because, “we can’t find any drivers”. 7 days for delivery and it was 15 miles away.
The delivery delays cause delays all down the logistics line in starting jobs, continuing jobs, finishing jobs.
A friend took possession of a brand new Dodge Truck after waiting months. Half of the gadgets in it don’t work because they are waiting for chips from Asia
Workers are gone and no amount of higher wages seems to be bringing them back.
But low unemployment has seemed to jack the price of everything.
Inflation? Cost of Living?
Another harbinger of things to come?
The higher wages have achieved higher cost of living, higher inflation.
Then add on the price of fuel, power, food, etc.
Very unusual situation.
It will be interesting to see how this plays out in the next 3 Summer months and then the Fall.

Economists will be winning Nobel prizes explaining this.
Lots of work that no one seems to want + high prices no one seems to want = No one spending money?
Time will tell.

#12 crowdedelevatorfartz on 06.04.22 at 10:20 am

Ryan ,
FYI, the hardhat and gloves are the cleanest I’ve seen since govt inspectors walked the site.
Scuff them up a bit before putting them on.
Less chance of getting razzed as the newbie.

#13 crowdedelevatorfartz on 06.04.22 at 10:24 am

@#10 Floppie
“That leaves me at 47, the baby of the department with a bunch of dusty curmudgeons, wondering if I can hang on until the wave makers are put out to pasture.”
+++
Not to worry Flop.
Most of the govt workers over 55 are counting their days to pulling the pin.
The politically correct inHuman Resources dept has seen to that.
They hate their jobs but are stuck at the salt mine until the full govt pension is locked in.
I have a buddy who has 2 years left and 1.5 years of accumulated sick time…..Take a wild guess as to what he’s planning.
Head down, mouth shut, and ride it out.

#14 Harold Penter on 06.04.22 at 10:37 am

And yet none of these jobs allows one to afford a home in a major Canadian city.

#15 Shawn on 06.04.22 at 10:43 am

Costco? Balance Sheet? Income Statement?

Let’s combine the Costco and Balance Sheet and Income Statement discussions from yesterday.

Costco has owner’s equity of $19.4 billion. Of that $13.5 billion is retained earnings. So 70% of its equity is from retained profits as opposed to original invested dollars. The immediate indication there is that this is a company that has been profitable over the years. That $13.5 billion retained earnings is after paying out regular dividends and large special dividends. It would also be after share buybacks but they have done little of that.

The income statement combined with the balance sheet reveals big profitability. Consistently over 20% return on owners equity for years, higher lately. The income statement alone would reveal profit over sales of only 2.6%. That looks low but profit over equity is a better measure.

Walk into any Costco at any time and you can’t help but observe that it is a wonderfully successful business.

The ONLY downside of Costco is a high share price in relation to earnings. A trailing price to earnings ratio of 38. But that’s lower than its recent average and historically it has been a good investment despite the high valuation.

#16 Flop… on 06.04.22 at 10:43 am

Rhino, here’s another example of a guy having a bad day at the office, landing on his feet.

Dustin Johnson felt trapped playing 15 tournaments a year on the PGA Tour, living in 5 star hotels, so he decided to chuck it all in when offered 125 million to play on the evolving Saudi backed tour.

RBC pulled his sponsorship soon after, probably because it’s pretty common for banks not wanting to be associated with anyone being paid too much to do their job…

M47BC

——————————————————————————-

“Is grateful for all it has given him” has a real thanks-for-the-memories vibe to it, like Johnson knew that once he made this move, there would be no going back. That sense heightened when RBC, one of Johnson’s sponsors, cut ties with him soon after his announcement. A player who turns his back on the PGA Tour and sponsorships doesn’t do so without assurances that money in equal or greater amounts will be flowing his way.”

https://ca.sports.yahoo.com/news/what-dustin-johnsons-leap-to-saudi-backed-liv-means-for-golf-160515515.html

#17 Adam on 06.04.22 at 10:45 am

“From my lens the US labour market is as strong as I’ve seen in decades and is showing little signs of stalling out. Given this I’m hard pressed to see a major economic contraction around the corner.”

I can’t help but think of this quote when reading this:

“It is difficult to get a man to understand something when his salary depends upon his not understanding it.”

Elon Musk, who owns many, many companies, seems to disagree. Granted, the tech sector is not the be all end all… or wait… it sort of is. Considering top 5 companies by market cap are all huge tech. They will bring everything crashing down.

#18 Shawn on 06.04.22 at 10:50 am

Counterpoint

Economy is indeed strong.

A small counterpoint is that if a recession is two quarters of negative growth then it’s probably more likely to come after a peak than a trough.

When U.S. unemployment rate is 3.6% and a record low it pretty well has no where else to go but up.

I’ll watch the Costco indicator. So far so good.

I’ll watch retail sales. I can’t see how that can fail to go down in volume when inflation greatly exceeds wage gains. There is a limit on that credit card. Spend more on gasoline, cooling the house and groceries and something’s gotta give? But what? And there is the 8% with higher mortgage costs this month. Where will they cut back?

#19 Shawn on 06.04.22 at 10:52 am

The data above shows U.S. needs workers

They gotta open the border to Mexicans a LOT wider. It’s been tight and they have deported a few million people I believe.

#20 Leo Trollstoy on 06.04.22 at 10:59 am

I Fat FIREd almost 10 years ago shortly after turning 40yo. If you have kids nothing comes close to FIRE in being able to spend time & watching them hit a bajillion milestones

#21 Søren Angst on 06.04.22 at 11:11 am

Canada is in good shape jobs wise.

Pre-Pandemic, Feb 2020 (Mar is when numbers dipped, Apr when they fell off a cliff)

X 1000

Employment 19,143.6
Full time 15,552.9
Part time 3,590.7
Unemployed 1,157.6
Size of the Labour Force was 20,301.3

Fast forward to April 2022

Employment 19,600.5
Full time 15,897.2
Part time 3,703.4
Unemployed 1,085.8
Size of the Labour Force was 20,686.3

https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/t1/tbl1/en/cv.action?pid=1410028701

Eyeballing it, the Labour Force increased by about 385 thousand all the while jobs increased by 450 thousand.

Not bad.

PHENOMENAL when you consider Apr 2020 (the “cliff” month):

Employment 16,145.8
Unemployed 2,422.9

+3.5M jobs added, 1.34M fewer unemployed.

——————

We’re not out of the woods yet having just moved past pre-pandemic numbers but when you consider Apr 2020 vs. Apr 2022, ya it’s time for this:

🎉 🥂 #x1F308; 🦄

In fact, it was SO good the neighbors next door, the Americans, had one of these, maybe 2:

🚬 🚬

#22 Sail Away on 06.04.22 at 11:13 am

Aapocalypse preparation:

A fine rainy day activity today will be putting up the winter’s firewood. Three tanks of saw gas, splitting on-site with the hand maul, stack by the back door and done for the year. One full day of work. The workout adds extra benefit.

The timber company’s firewood program is great. Keeps people honest-er and the sites clean. Similar to Secwepemc’s mushroom permitting that really cut down on trash in the backcountry.

Heating here is a far cry from Alaska, where firewood was 10x the work. The good life.

#23 Stone on 06.04.22 at 11:17 am

The whole FIRE movement doesn’t really appeal to this guy! Call me old school.

———

Can’t say I really would want to go back to working being FIRE and all. It would have to be something really special to justify giving away my time for money again.

I respect your point of view, Ryan. I just wonder what’s the longest time you’ve been off from work?

Short 1-4 week periods of vacation aren’t long enough to really break away properly from work life. Several months or more though makes you start to wonder why people would trade time for money for most of their lifespan. Of course there are those few who love what they do which you appear to exude. I also enjoyed what I did for work. It’s just the alternative is even more appealing.

#24 Ryan Lewenza on 06.04.22 at 11:20 am

Paul “Tech is singing a different tune. Lots of layoffs and hiring freezes.”

I’ve been hearing about technology companies freezing employment but I haven’t heard about any material job losses in the sector. The tech sector remains one of the hottest sectors for job growth. – Ryan L

#25 Søren Angst on 06.04.22 at 11:21 am

Darn. Debut ruined.

x1F308 is this:

🌈 resurrected for 🍁 .

[Still looking for a Leprechaun emoji 🍀]

#26 Sail Away on 06.04.22 at 11:34 am

#19 Shawn on 06.04.22 at 10:52 am

The data above shows U.S. needs workers

They gotta open the border to Mexicans a LOT wider. It’s been tight and they have deported a few million people I believe.

———

Legal immigration? Yes, you bet.

Illegal immigration? Nope. And keep deporting the illegals.

#27 Odd on 06.04.22 at 11:34 am

I would like to see the bull demonstrated in support of the “demonstrably bullish” comment on record low unemployment rates.

As far as I can see from the chart, the lows are followed by sharp uptick in unemployment, indicating recessions.

We were arguably heading into one toward the end of 2019 with or without COVID. This economy may be on borrowed time and borrowed dollars.

#28 Quinitilian on 06.04.22 at 11:40 am

The job report is good, and as usual a good wordsmith with a bit of Economics knowledge could shoot holes through it, but I digress.

Interestingly, the gamblers- oops! meant the investors got spooked by the report and they staged a sell off.

In essence they fear higher interest rates, which are still negative, more than a slowing economy.

If that doesn’t tell you something, then you curmudgeons cannot be helped.

To be sure, there are genuine investors/owners, of the listed businesses, but they don’t move the markets.

The gamblers do.

True, in the long run these staged fluctuations flatten on the chart, but just remember that in the mean time you are gambling in a cesspool.

#29 Ryan Lewenza on 06.04.22 at 11:41 am

ogdoad “FIRE appeals to me hugely. Travel when I want. Gym daily. No time constraints (don’t wear a watch or carry a phone). New tats. Jog whenever. Smelling the flowers.”

Different strokes for different folks. I get the appeal to not working and having all that freedom. But I’m old school and I get a real sense of purpose through working and my job. Also it’s personally rewarding to help so many Canadians buy their first home, put their kids through school and live well in retirement. A new ‘tat’ and jogging wouldn’t provide that same sense of purpose and accomplishment for me. – Ryan L

#30 Ponzius Pilatus on 06.04.22 at 11:54 am

3 Paul on 06.04.22 at 9:04 am
Tech is singing a different tune. Lots of layoffs and hiring freezes.
—————————
Well, they had it too good, too long.
Over rated.
The problem with Tech people is they see everything from a tech perspective.
Not every thing can be fixed with an app.

#31 Ponzius Pilatus on 06.04.22 at 12:03 pm

16 Flop… on 06.04.22 at 10:43 am
Rhino, here’s another example of a guy having a bad day at the office, landing on his feet.

Dustin Johnson felt trapped playing 15 tournaments a year on the PGA Tour, living in 5 star hotels, so he decided to chuck it all in when offered 125 million to play on the evolving Saudi backed tour.

RBC pulled his sponsorship soon after, probably because it’s pretty common for banks not wanting to be associated with anyone being paid too much to do their job…

M47BC

——————————————————————————-

“Is grateful for all it has given him” has a real thanks-for-the-memories vibe to it, like Johnson knew that once he made this move, there would be no going back. That sense heightened when RBC, one of Johnson’s sponsors, cut ties with him soon after his announcement. A player who turns his back on the PGA Tour and sponsorships doesn’t do so without assurances that money in equal or greater amounts will be flowing his way.”

https://ca.sports.yahoo.com/news/what-dustin-johnsons-leap-to-saudi-backed-liv-means-for-golf-160515515.html
————————————
Dusty is getting a 100 mill signing bonus from the Sheiks.
Gonna need it.
Just got married to Gretzky’s daughter.
She looks like high maintenance to me.

#32 ogdoad on 06.04.22 at 12:23 pm

#29 Ryan Lewenza on 06.04.22 at 11:41 am

Heard that, Ryan. You have your purposes upon this earth and I have mine. But trust me, the Dopamine hits I get when a hottie stares at the 10-pack as I jog past them or the conversations I have due to the ‘tat’ are just as purposeful…just direct, instead of indirect ;)

Great weekend!

Og

#33 Søren Angst on 06.04.22 at 12:24 pm

Vendor Take Back Mortgages (VTB) are back.

https://twitter.com/ronmortgageguy/status/1533112959060295680

Vegas buyer.

HELOC seller.

What could go wrong?

————–

Helps keep a few TikTok Realtors out of the poor house.

#34 [email protected] on 06.04.22 at 12:33 pm

Agree. FIRE is the worst thing ever. Please continue working and spending to support my lifestyle. The stock market needs your hard work. Also please continue buying houses so you can be stuck in a frozen wasteland and stay away from my travel spots. Appreciate it! Don’t retire. It’s the worst thing ever. Keep working.

#35 Dave on 06.04.22 at 12:43 pm

Elon Musk said he has a bad feeling about the economy and reducing staff by 10%…..he is definitely someone who has Merritt in his analysis

#36 Shawn on 06.04.22 at 12:46 pm

Deport Illegals?

#26 Sail Away on 06.04.22 at 11:34 am
#19 Shawn on 06.04.22 at 10:52 am

The data above shows U.S. needs workers

They gotta open the border to Mexicans a LOT wider. It’s been tight and they have deported a few million people I believe.

———

Legal immigration? Yes, you bet.

Illegal immigration? Nope. And keep deporting the illegals.

**********************************
Fair enough. As long as we still show compassion and don’t refer to anyone as “illegal aliens”. Let’s reserve that term for extra terrestrials. Using the term alien while it might be technically correct is a way to dehumanize people. (And not suggesting Sail Away ever used that term)

Need to ramp up legal immigration. And have compassionate programs for “illegals” that have been in the U.S. for years and been law abiding other than their immigration status. The idea of deporting anyone born and raised in the U.S. and who is law abiding is disgusting to me.

#37 Bitcoin Bro on 06.04.22 at 1:01 pm

@ Harold Penter on 06.04.22 at 10:37 am –

Yes sir

This is why employment reporting is mostly bogus. Hypothetical full employment means nothing when the median income in the country is ~$60K/annually and real inflation is well into the teens. That just means full employment of mostly working poor people.

#38 No recession on 06.04.22 at 1:05 pm

It cost $100 to drive from Burnaby to Whistler and back with gas at $2.25/litre.

Steak is double price from a year ago.

The list goes on and on and on…

If consumers are 70% of the economy and most are being priced out of participating in the economy,

How can you say there is no recession coming?

#39 Doug t on 06.04.22 at 1:10 pm

#11 fartz

Agreed – feels like something wicked this way comes

#40 Doug t on 06.04.22 at 1:13 pm

#22 sail

Do you ever get tired of yourself ?

#41 Flop… on 06.04.22 at 1:26 pm

Uncle Crowdie, I will do a bit of blog gardening to relax on a Saturday.

A couple of things I want to show you.

First, I know you take an interest in things going on in China, someone put this chart up the other day showing the difference between property sale after the first round of lockdowns in 2020, and the corresponding chart for this years performance.

https://mobile.twitter.com/Gavekal/status/1531268826197028865/photo/1

Secondly, Flop Drops, I’m trying to focus primarily on the East Side of Vancouver, it’s different from Pink Snow in regards as I don’t bother showing the big losses on the Westside anymore, someone lost half a million yesterday, by the way, try to focus on showing the bottom rung drop back down to wherever it lands.

In 2017/2018 the same type of starter home that was going for 1.3/1.4 in my hood could be had in 2016 had dropped significantly to less than a million but a lot of people sat on their hands and momentum and the tide changed again and swept prices out of reach for all but the strongest swimmers.

As I went to document a place in my hood yesterday on here I saw this place in Burnaby on the corner of the screen and thought of you for a moment.

https://www.zealty.ca/mls-R2692894/4911-THORNWOOD-PLACE-Burnaby-BC/

So, it went for 1.35, do you need that much space for one person?

At what price does it make sense for you to divert money from your portfolio to buy a place like this?

30% off this price, 40%, 50% ?

I haven’t thought about buying real estate once during all the Covid mayhem, just want to get back to travelling, which my new job hampers, I think more about freedom to do what I want, then cocooning in a house.

Maybe I’m just the Benjamin Button of real estate, buying a house at 19 years old, selling it 5 years later, and then renting for the rest of my life…

M47BC

#42 Faron on 06.04.22 at 1:28 pm

#36 Shawn on 06.04.22 at 12:46 pm
Deport Illegals?

#26 Sail Away on 06.04.22 at 11:34 am
#19 Shawn on 06.04.22 at 10:52 am

The data above shows U.S. needs workers

They gotta open the border to Mexicans a LOT wider. It’s been tight and they have deported a few million people I believe.

———

Legal immigration? Yes, you bet.

Illegal immigration? Nope. And keep deporting the illegals.

Shawn is right. 0th order thinking from Sail Away. Deporting the hardest working and lowest paid among US residents and workers is a way of saying you love inflation -> higher CB interest rates -> lower property values among many other things. Not the least is a tetch of replacement theory fear mongering (“murderers and rapists” – DJT). Sure, try to stop illegal immigration (good luck with that BTW) but deportation of established workers is foot shooting at its finest in a hyper tight jobs market.

Canada has firm immigration targets to offset the low birth rate and implications for a weak economy that a static population implies. Germany brought in a massive number of Syrians and that didn’t hurt their economy. Granted, Syrians are a well educated cohort.

#43 Shawn on 06.04.22 at 1:30 pm

Energy is Canada’s largest export by far!

Garth has mentioned the huge importance of energy as an export and that it is Canada’s largest export.

That has not always been true. In 2021 with lower energy prices. Commercial services were actually a bigger export than energy. And there were years when Motor Vehicles were the largest export.

But as of Q1 2022 energy is the largest export by far – $192 billion annualized – almost double the next category which is commercial services. Motor vehicles is now down to only the fifth largest export. This is using current dollars. The data is also available in 2012 chained dollars which measures volume changes. This is also annualized data.

Billions of EXTRA dollars are gushing into mostly Alberta due to high energy prices.

#AlbertaAdvantage #AlbertaRising #OntarioFalling

https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/t1/tbl1/en/tv.action?pid=1210013401&pickMembers%5B0%5D=2.2&pickMembers%5B1%5D=3.1&pickMembers%5B2%5D=4.1&cubeTimeFrame.startMonth=01&cubeTimeFrame.startYear=2022&cubeTimeFrame.endMonth=01&cubeTimeFrame.endYear=2022&referencePeriods=20220101%2C20220101

#44 Shawn on 06.04.22 at 1:34 pm

#38 No recession on 06.04.22 at 1:05 pm
It cost $100 to drive from Burnaby to Whistler and back with gas at $2.25/litre.

Steak is double price from a year ago.

The list goes on and on and on…

If consumers are 70% of the economy and most are being priced out of participating in the economy,

How can you say there is no recession coming?

******************************
I don’t disagree about your recession prediction. But Consumers in Canada consume 58% of GDP, not 70%.

I gots the data

https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/daily-quotidien/210302/t002a-eng.htm

#45 I don't know on 06.04.22 at 1:37 pm

“So we’re witnessing the lowest unemployment rates in nearly 50 years for the North American economy. This is demonstrably bullish and a clear sign that the economy is doing well right now, contrary to what you hear from the bears and media.”

-Great post (as usual). The quotation above is the crux of the argument.

Of course they economy is doing fine (actually over-heating a little). Bears are, generally speaking, people who are usually overly pessimistic, cynical and paranoid. You can add in greed and jealousy too.

These are powerful emotions that the media/social media is all to happy to exploit for views, clicks and likes (otherwise known as “revenue”).

Best thing to do is ignore these types. Another strategy is to listen to what they say, then do the opposite to make money.

IDK

#46 Joseph R. on 06.04.22 at 1:46 pm

#18 Shawn on 06.04.22 at 10:50 am
Counterpoint

Economy is indeed strong.

A small counterpoint is that if a recession is two quarters of negative growth then it’s probably more likely to come after a peak than a trough.

When U.S. unemployment rate is 3.6% and a record low it pretty well has no where else to go but up.

I’ll watch the Costco indicator. So far so good.

I’ll watch retail sales. I can’t see how that can fail to go down in volume when inflation greatly exceeds wage gains. There is a limit on that credit card. Spend more on gasoline, cooling the house and groceries and something’s gotta give? But what? And there is the 8% with higher mortgage costs this month. Where will they cut back?

———————————————————-&

Repossession of vehicles.

That is what happened in 2008. It is the first consumer good to get rid of when you have too many liabilities. That may help the used car market.

#47 Keith on 06.04.22 at 1:54 pm

The Canadian job market peaked in 1967, when my Mom went back to university for a year to complete her third year of undergraduate study. That was enough to qualify for a teaching license in B.C., because the shortage of teachers was so acute they waived the bachelor’s degree requirement. That’s what I call a bull market for labor.

Interestingly, the recession of the early eighties was so severe there was a year when the Victoria school board hired one full time teacher, by then it was a five year teaching degree to boot. What a difference fifteen years can make. Unionized Safeway clerks in B.C. used to make as much as a teacher.

#48 Tom on 06.04.22 at 1:56 pm

Get rid of the Iphone, mobile devices etc. It is garbage and waste of money, time and increases the cost of everything we buy, use.

#49 crowdedelevatorfartz on 06.04.22 at 2:21 pm

@#41 Floppie
“At what price does it make sense for you to divert money from your portfolio to buy a place like this?

30% off this price, 40%, 50% ?”

+++
I’m not even considering a property in the Lower Brainland.
Lived here 40+ years. Just about done with the traffic, the peeps, the govt., etc.
I’m looking at property in the Brier patch on the East Coast.
(Garth and Dogs will have an open invite to weenie roasts.) .
Prices and sales have stalled and I expect them to drop soon.

#50 Gr on 06.04.22 at 2:46 pm

Thanks Ryan,
For keeping an eye on the many things you have too.

Your first three lines cover what I have been hearing and noticing.

Especially that inflation at the gas pump and the grocery checkout lines. And the rate hikes is only going to add to the pain many are feeling or about to be feeling.

Is stuff costing that much more or is the value- buying power of what we have gone down that much.

I’m just waiting for the increase in taxes to come from the very same people that are spending more than the taxes already being paid are covering. Of course they will try and tell us it is because of something else and not because of them. And why should they care anyway it’s not going onto there credit card bill. Or coming out of there retirement pension. If it did… I’m guessing it might not be as bad as it is looking.

But the wheels just keep turning until they come off the tracks I guess. Or people get mad enough about were and why the value of all there hard work and savings is disappearing too.

But then the criminally insane think everyone, but them, should/will have nothing and be happy, or better dead, as long as it’s not them of course.
I’d like that same carbon allowance as they are presently consuming, for my many homes, cars and private jets, There actions speak volumes, there words are hollow and dangerous. Unless your one of the very few that think like them. I guess history keeps rhyming on until it can’t or no one is left but the AI not really humans anymore left. The present is always an interesting time to be alive.

#51 Victor Llearna on 06.04.22 at 2:49 pm

If Trudeau is giving out free money the sheep learn they not need to work and inflation sky rockets

#52 Ustabe on 06.04.22 at 2:55 pm

Anyone in coastal BC who stacks firewood “by the back door” is an idiot. Or uninformed, you chose. We have termites in coastal BC, along with carpenter ants and a smaller and redder one known as moisture ants.

The termites actually consume the wood while the ants simply carve out their homes inside the wood.

This goes on silently for years when suddenly you have a problem that entails destruction of good surfaces to find and replace the compromised surfaces along with chemical applications that cause testicular shrinkage.

My 3 cord wood shed is well away from my home and the entire perimeter of my home where the foundation meets the ground is rock not mulch. Regular inspections for those termite tubes. This goes under the decks as well. That rock perimeter is the perfect place to to lay down a perimeter treatment each spring and again in summer. We have someone do this as he has access to treatments I don’t, its a $300 annual cost.

Subscribe now to my Bugs That Can And Will Eat Your Home newsletter by clicking the link below:

#53 Old Boot on 06.04.22 at 2:56 pm

I follow the job ads for my southern VanIsle area, and see no explosive growth in numbers, nor is there any noticeable wage increases reflected in the advertised pay scales beyond mandated minimum wage increases.

These are largely crap jobs, with insufficient hours or pay to enable a worker to live in the community where the job is located. If white collar workers are moving to Bunnypatch to make their wages stretch to meet expenses, how do you suppose those low end workers who must attend the work site in a high CoL city to afford it?

Unfilled jobs pay too little, offer too few hours, or are contracted piece work that effectively pays less than minimum wage. The likelihood of qualifying for EI based on the hours offered is close to zero. They’re unfilled because they deserve to be at the wage offered.

I wouldn’t be saying that recession is unlikely based on our present employment stats. When consumer demand slows, these unfilled jobs will disappear without a whimper.

Become a nurse at great personal time, effort and expense, only to be met with nothing but a 0.6 FT position, enforced ideological indoctrination, unealistic staffing models, and utter contempt from employers? Good luck.

#54 crowdedelevatorfartz on 06.04.22 at 3:37 pm

@#46 Joseph
“That is what happened in 2008. It is the first consumer good to get rid of when you have too many liabilities. ”
+++
I’ll be watching the “For sale” signs on the toys.
Boats, Jets skis, motorcycles, atvs, etc.
Then the repos of the same toys.
THEN the car / truck repos.
This Fall/Winter should be quite interesting after the post Covid “EveryoneGoinNutz” Summer party.

#55 Sail Away on 06.04.22 at 3:43 pm

#40 Doug t on 06.04.22 at 1:13 pm
#22 sail

Do you ever get tired of yourself ?

———-

Nope! Haha. But I’m a little tired from making all that sawdust (which I keep, by the way, for the hunting camp outhouse).

Another few minutes and we’ll heat up that maul. Should be really tired in a few more hours.

#56 Sail Away on 06.04.22 at 3:56 pm

#36 Shawn on 06.04.22 at 12:46 pm

The idea of deporting anyone born and raised in the U.S. and who is law abiding is disgusting to me.

———-

Then please allow me to relieve your disgust: anyone born in the US is a citizen of the US, so no deportation.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Birthright_citizenship_in_the_United_States#:~:text=%22All%20persons%20born%20or%20naturalized,the%20State%20wherein%20they%20reside%22.

#57 Pylot Project on 06.04.22 at 4:01 pm

#24 Ryan Lewenza on 06.04.22 at 11:20 am

The tech sector remains one of the hottest sectors for job growth.

===

For those under the age of 40 or 50 perhaps. Age-ism is the last ism still permitted in the job market. There have been numerous G&M articles the past few years about this problem.

#58 Dr V on 06.04.22 at 4:03 pm

18 Shawn

“Spend more on gasoline, cooling the house and groceries and something’s gotta give? But what?”
———————————————–

Watermelons.

#59 Shawn on 06.04.22 at 4:08 pm

In post 43 I said commercial services were higher than energy in exports in 2021. I meant to say 2020. Specifically it was Q4 2020 annualized.

#60 Sail Away on 06.04.22 at 4:12 pm

Re: Illegal immigration to US

I’m in full favour of punting illegals. If they really want citizenship, they can do it legally, or enlist in the US Army for four years and serve the country for the benefit of citizenship. The Army is full of these folks. Otherwise, Adios.

#61 Sail Away on 06.04.22 at 4:19 pm

#52 Ustabe on 06.04.22 at 2:55 pm

Anyone in coastal BC who stacks firewood “by the back door” is an idiot. Or uninformed, you chose.

——–

Well, ‘choose’, actually.

As with the above example, I often find folks of the lower classes are shockingly bereft of tactful rejoinders.

#62 kommykim on 06.04.22 at 4:19 pm

Ah, 1976… 1980 was just 4 years away…

#63 Former Nurse on 06.04.22 at 4:22 pm

You think nursing is an easy job? The job is more stressful than a lazy cop sitting in a car all day and harassing people for what they post online.

The risk of getting bitten, attacked and fondled at work, and also being forced to clean poop and pee from patients, and sometimes cleaning them up after. I wouldn’t do that job if you paid me $1,000 per hour.

#64 Quintilian on 06.04.22 at 4:24 pm

#54 crowdedelevatorfartz on 06.04.22 at 3:37 pm

“I’ll be watching the “For sale” signs on the toys.
Boats, Jets skis, motorcycles, atvs, etc.
Then the repos of the same toys.
THEN the car / truck repos.
This Fall/Winter should be quite interesting after the post Covid “EveryoneGoinNutz” Summer party.”

But share prices, dividends, and corporate profits will remain buoyant right?
Please do explain Crowdie, cause the text book says differently.

#65 FO on 06.04.22 at 4:24 pm

Interesting starting point of ‘01 for some of the graphs. Recall the labour market feeling very similar in ‘99 / ‘00. If one had a pulse and a degree in tech – Nortel would hire on the spot, the help wanted section in the newspaper for the small city I lived in was 5+ pages of programming jobs, and even McDonald’s started to offer benefits packages in an attempt to fill headcount.

We know how it ended. This time will likely be no different. Then it was a sock puppet, now blockchain. Both leading the charge of capital mis-allocation.
Recession was needed to clean it up.

In the end, as oft repeated here – be BnD – don’t pay much attention to the investment statements, and keep eyes on horizon. But my guess, expect a recession – it’s needed.

#66 Spelling countz on 06.04.22 at 4:28 pm

#35 Dave on 06.04.22 at 12:43 pm

Elon Musk said he has a bad feeling about the economy and reducing staff by 10%…..he is definitely someone who has Merritt in his analysis

________

Not sure why … i doubt he has even heard of it …though they do have the only Tesla fast charger between Kelowna and Hope!

#67 Shawn on 06.04.22 at 4:56 pm

#58 Dr V on 06.04.22 at 4:03 pm
18 Shawn

“Spend more on gasoline, cooling the house and groceries and something’s gotta give? But what?”
———————————————–

Watermelons.

**************************
Yep, except when under about $6.00, our last one was $4.00. Vote with your wallet.

#68 The Regulator on 06.04.22 at 5:25 pm

# 50 – Gr : So a bunch of billionaires fly their private jets, from one of their multiple residences, then take helicopters’ from the airport. Train rides are shunned, lest they rub shoulders with us useless eaters. Then they proceed to scheme behind closed doors, for our own good. Meaning THEIR own good. Meanwhile, Herr uncle Klaus Schwab injects his manchurian candidates into sovereign governments to carry out their agenda. Conspiracy theory? Ask Young Global Leaders like Justin and Crystia, they’re graduates of the w.e.f. So is half the lieberal cabinet. Unnkie Klaus said so. Arrogant p***k.

#69 Calgary on 06.04.22 at 5:58 pm

15 Shawn

Costco good buy @mid$300

#70 The Regulator on 06.04.22 at 6:15 pm

The same people, who have buried themselves in debt, buying cardboard mansions, working in their spider man pajamas, and adopting a fur baby are about to have their day of reckoning. Cue the sob stories and excuses for their dilemma in 3…2…1! They will demand the gubmint do something to save their hydes (meaning the rest of us will pay). Let ’em sink or swim, and support your local food bank. And especially your local animal shelter, as many fur babies will soon need to be adopted. Sad.

#71 Ken R on 06.04.22 at 6:30 pm

#71 The Regulator on 06.04.22 at 6:15 pm
The same people, who have buried themselves in debt, buying cardboard mansions, working in their spider man pajamas, and adopting a fur baby are about to have their day of reckoning.

You are correct. All the gas-guzzling toys going up for sale to start.

#72 Ustabe on 06.04.22 at 6:44 pm

#61 Sail Away on 06.04.22 at 4:19 pm

#52 Ustabe on 06.04.22 at 2:55 pm

Well, ‘choose’, actually.

As with the above example, I often find folks of the lower classes are shockingly bereft of tactful rejoinders.

We sort of don’t do class in Canada like you are inferring. However, I’d rather be lower class than classless, eh?

You know what Sail? Never mind your inability to understand hyperbole, I rescind my declaration as to you being my enemy for life.

You don’t need me, you are doing a great job all by yourself. My mother, a trained PhD psychologist, used to say “let them stew in their own juices.”

So I will, babble on you ignorant narcissistic sociopath.

oops, that is probably only something someone of a lower class would say I guess.

#73 crowdedelevatorfartz on 06.04.22 at 6:52 pm

@#69&71 The Regurgitator

When was the last time you saw sunlight?

#74 crowdedelevatorfartz on 06.04.22 at 6:55 pm

@#64 The Quibbler
“But share prices, dividends, and corporate profits will remain buoyant right?
Please do explain Crowdie, cause the text book says differently.”
+++
It’s because I believe in Unicorns farting rainbows…..
OR most of the plebes that finance “toys” have never invested more than 5k in their lives.
Frightened pikers….like you

#75 Flop… on 06.04.22 at 7:23 pm

#49 crowdedelevatorfartz on 06.04.22 at 2:21 pm
@#41 Floppie
“At what price does it make sense for you to divert money from your portfolio to buy a place like this?
30% off this price, 40%, 50% ?”
+++
I’m not even considering a property in the Lower Brainland.
Lived here 40+ years. Just about done with the traffic, the peeps, the govt., etc.
I’m looking at property in the Brier patch on the East Coast.
(Garth and Dogs will have an open invite to weenie roasts.) .
Prices and sales have stalled and I expect them to drop soon.

$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$

Same, buying property in the rain doesn’t excite me.

I watched a program last night, a murder mystery for 2 hours just because the story was based in Corpus Christi.

That was the last place I visited before Uncle Justin took away my suitcase for a while.

Still got a fascination with the place, because it’s somewhere I know I can afford to retire, it’s not Miami or Waikiki, that’s for sure, but that’s the point, I don’t want to retire somewhere just to watch everyone having the fun.

Don’t even know which hemisphere I’m going to attempt to retire in, I’ll have to sharpen my focus in the next decade, but summer in Pacific North-West, and winter in South Texas would be doable.

Like a lot of places in the States , the real estate has had a run up recently, interest rates have added ice to the water bucket to cool things down, but you can still get a half decent place there for under 250k within a short distance to the waterfront.

https://www.point2homes.com/US/Home-For-Sale/TX/Corpus-Cristi/Bay-Area/533-Evergreen-Dr/122377126.html

I did walk through the neighborhood on my visit, respectabie enough, felt safe, yada, yada.

Long term rental could work too, just need a base to explore, weather is great, people are friendly, military people always want to come and tell me about their tours to Australia when they here my accent, so that helps break the ice.

Sometimes I do have to tell Americans that Tasmania is not a country in Africa…

M47BC

#76 IdealisticRealist on 06.04.22 at 7:35 pm

Thanks for the encouraging post Ryan. It means alot for this Gen Xer who went from being VP of a FinTech firm to a volunteer and nanny overnight. It’s been a nice experience but time to get back to reality. Cheers!

#77 Crystal balls are scarce on 06.04.22 at 7:52 pm

unemployment is at records low and job openings are abundant but hard to fill. This is what I see happening in the jobs market. What would be the result of this if not inflation, and how is the highest inflation since the 70th good for the economy?

I don’t have a crystal ball; but a recession while not a certainty is in the cards.

#78 Moneyfromasia on 06.04.22 at 8:17 pm

Wrong, like Real Estate lags the stock market as the stock market is treated as the leading indicator of the economy. The jobs report is the lagging indicator.

The fed has never engineered a successful soft landing to avoid recession when raising rates.

I guess you weren’t around to see the inflation in the 80’s… sure reads like it.

#79 Shawn on 06.04.22 at 8:18 pm

#70 Calgary on 06.04.22 at 5:58 pm
15 Shawn

Costco good buy @mid$300

*****************************
Agreed but I don’t gots a time machine. Unlikely to go that low but if it does, back up the truck. The recent quick dip from $610 to about $415 was a buying opportunity.

#80 VladTor on 06.04.22 at 8:27 pm

It is OK, but Jamie Dimon has different opinion:

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/06/01/jamie-dimon-says-brace-yourself-for-an-economic-hurricane-caused-by-the-fed-and-ukraine-war.html

Who is Jamie Dimon:

Jamie Dimon is the chairman of the board of directors, CEO and co-owner of JPMorgan Chase, the largest bank in the US (capitalization at the end of last year – more than 500 billion dollars, assets – 3.74 trillion dollars). In the Forbes Global 2000 list of the largest public companies in the world for 2018, JPMorgan Chase ranked 3rd. JPMorgan Chase is a symbol of stability in the banking and financial world. Jamie Dimon himself is an example of a seasoned and successful banker. Back in the late twentieth century, he was president of the giant banking holding Citigroup. Jamie Dimon has been the CEO of JPMorgan Chase since 2005.

#81 meslippery on 06.04.22 at 9:02 pm

In 1998 my wage as a non-union truck driver was $18.00per hour so $5.00 more for 24 years.
21 cents per year no small wonder its hard to find drivers.
I could afford the house I live in on that wage at that time but not what they pay now.My house in 1998 175k now 800 k

#82 Phylis on 06.04.22 at 9:09 pm

To the dogs. Is it normal to buy 4x4x8’ posts from home depot and after 2 week have them showing significant splits lengthwise? I looked at them closely in the store. Doesn’t seems right.

#83 AK on 06.04.22 at 9:44 pm

The ones that are calling for a recession are short sellers and greedy Hedge Funds.

#84 Nora Lenderby on 06.04.22 at 10:02 pm

#83 Phylis on 06.04.22 at 9:09 pm
“To the dogs. Is it normal to buy 4x4x8’ posts from home depot and after 2 week have them showing significant splits lengthwise? I looked at them closely in the store. Doesn’t seems right.”

It’s true. Checks happen. They happened to some of the new posts we put up to finish the deck steps. Also bends.

Home Despot “pressure-treated”. It will outlive us though.

#85 Dr V on 06.04.22 at 10:15 pm

68 Shawn

“Yep, except when under about $6.00, our last one was $4.00. Vote with your wallet.”
————————————-

Got it. Buy the dip.

#86 The Regulator on 06.04.22 at 10:22 pm

# 74 – flatuatorincrowdedelevators : Good one, not. How many more sophomoric one liners do you have in your tool chest? Do you own a tool chest?

#87 crowdedelevatorfartz on 06.04.22 at 10:24 pm

@376 Floppie
Corpus Christi eh?
Never been but it looks nice.
The only thing I’d be concerned about would be Hurricanes.
Galveston got wiped off the map 100 years ago.
A long term, fully furnished rental might be a good idea.
Nothing to lose but the address.
I’m thinking the same thing. Canada in the spring, summer, fall with a few southern trips to break up the Winter.
Who knows? Maybe Taz in Jan ( their summer) to break the monotony.
You can drink me under the table with the local ales.
:)

#88 The Regulator on 06.04.22 at 10:27 pm

Crowdedelevators bot : Glory to Russia!!!

#89 Sail Away on 06.04.22 at 10:28 pm

@Ustabe

Goof. You always take the first swing, then get so offended when responded to in kind. Don’t dish if you can’t take, bruh.

#90 sean on 06.04.22 at 10:28 pm

RE: #48 Tom on 06.04.22 at 1:56 pm

Get rid of the Iphone, mobile devices etc. It is garbage and waste of money, time and increases the cost of everything we buy, use.

————————————————

As an older Gen-X’er I am ambivalent regarding cell ‘phones, but I’d suggest that most people would rather have a limb amputated than do without their mobile “fix”.

I’m keeping my BCE and Telus stock.

#91 mike from mtl on 06.04.22 at 10:41 pm

Right, like back in 2018 when the Fed wanted more bullets given a ‘super strong’ economy to only fall apart in months.

A certain #45 had to talk the Fed back on track, then the dystopia virus hit us back to zero.

#92 TalkingPie on 06.04.22 at 11:15 pm

There’s a real shortage of labour in aviation right now, both in Canada and abroad.

Given that my employer laid everyone off during the pandemic, denied its employees government-offered assistance because giving it to them was slightly more expensive than not giving it, while themselves taking all the government money possible, and then giving bonuses to the execs, who made 7 figures during the good times, as a reward for making “the hard decisions,” I hope that the labour market bites back hard now that the pendulum might be swinging the other way.

Real wages have been suppressed for a long time now, while executive compensation has ballooned with the excuse that they needed to attract top talent. Well, when no one’s willing to fuel your planes or deal with the abuse from your frustrated passengers in overcrowded, understaffed airports, it might be time to invest in some talent that doesn’t demand millions a year per employee. Live by supply and demand, die by supply and demand.

Greed is universal among income classes. The ultra wealthy are just much, much better at it.

#93 Paul on 06.04.22 at 11:47 pm

#90

@Ustabe

Goof. You always take the first swing, then get so offended when responded to in kind. Don’t dish if you can’t take, bruh.

****
Sounds to me that the psychologist’s son scored a direct hit in #73. ;-)

9/10 I`m going with the duck test for the narcissistic diagnosis. I`m afraid that ship has sailed.

For what it`s worth, I’m not fully convinced that you’re a sociopath.

#94 DON on 06.04.22 at 11:57 pm

#39 Doug t on 06.04.22 at 1:10 pm
#11 fartz

Agreed – feels like something wicked this way comes

*********

There’s a chill in the air that’s for sure. Fear.

#95 DON on 06.05.22 at 12:00 am

#87 The Regulator on 06.04.22 at 10:22 pm
# 74 – flatuatorincrowdedelevators : Good one, not. How many more sophomoric one liners do you have in your tool chest? Do you own a tool chest?

******
Unfortunately for you…it is endless. Enjoy ha ha ha

#96 Greg on 06.05.22 at 12:03 am

The mainstream and alt news media have been projecting doom and gloom 24/7 for a while now. Regardless if events are real or staged, they have been amping up the fear mongering. Unless there really is something terrible planned in the near future, and there could be. Why use the Covid event as a one off…

Entities made money on the way up and this year making money on the way down, with constant media fear mongering and reactions to it, helping with the support.

The future is uncertain and the end is ALWAYS near seems to be the current underlying tone.

#97 DON on 06.05.22 at 12:22 am

#49 crowdedelevatorfartz on 06.04.22 at 2:21 pm
@#41 Floppie
“At what price does it make sense for you to divert money from your portfolio to buy a place like this?

30% off this price, 40%, 50% ?”

+++
I’m not even considering a property in the Lower Brainland.
Lived here 40+ years. Just about done with the traffic, the peeps, the govt., etc.
I’m looking at property in the Brier patch on the East Coast.
(Garth and Dogs will have an open invite to weenie roasts.) .
Prices and sales have stalled and I expect them to drop soon.

*********
A friend just moved to Nova Scotia and said the same…she is just waiting a year or so. As it stands prices are low low low in comparison to anywhere in BC. Friendly folk in Nova.

Good idea.

#98 DON on 06.05.22 at 12:51 am

#83 Phylis on 06.04.22 at 9:09 pm
To the dogs. Is it normal to buy 4x4x8’ posts from home depot and after 2 week have them showing significant splits lengthwise? I looked at them closely in the store. Doesn’t seems right.

**********
No not normal for that splitting after two weeks. Take some pictures and get your money back. Fir and maple boards can warp as they dry or the stress isn’t cut out by the miller.

It would take cedar 4x4s a couple of years in the direct sun to start showing the stress. Even fir untreated would last for a couple of years, especially if painted. Pressure treated is the way to go to endure the weather like the other poster said.

#99 Ustabe on 06.05.22 at 1:22 am

For what it`s worth, I’m not fully convinced that you’re a sociopath.

Paul, we all are to one degree or another. Its a power to be sure.

How it is perceived in the real world depends on if you use your power for good or for self aggrandizement.

My stories are designed to inform and entertain. Some around here are only interested in letting us know how much better they think they are than the rest of us.

#100 Truth or Consequences on 06.05.22 at 2:49 am

Dairy farmers wanna increase milk prices again for the second time this year. That’s a bad sign.

#101 under the radar on 06.05.22 at 5:26 am

I use a gas powered 32 ton log splitter. I have a well crafted Gransfor splitting maul which I bring along . As for stacking , 5 ft high between towering pines near my pond. Very beautiful if you ask me. The wood is exposed to the west and dries out in a season or less.

#102 Been There on 06.05.22 at 6:28 am

“FIRE appeals to me hugely. Travel when I want. Gym daily…”

Good luck with that! As a guy who retired early myself I can tell you that it’s not all peaches and cream. You might think you’ll live the high life but chances are you’ll be doing it alone and most of your friend/family won’t be able to join you. Also, after you’ve spend the majority of your time scrimping, saving and investing you’ll probably have a more difficult time opening up your wallet then you might imagine. That would be after your realize that what you have at that point must last your for the rest of your life.

My plan was that I wasn’t going to leave much behind when I kick off. The truth is that I can’t do that and live the high life at the same time. Sure we enjoy traveling a little here and there but I find that I must always think about tomorrow.

I’ll bet that, unless you and your S/O have awesome pensions that will never be compromised as well as a ton in your investments you’ll never reach your goal of being foot loose and fancy free. Unless of course you choose to be completely reckless with watching your money and think not about what your future holds.

#103 Ryan Lewenza on 06.05.22 at 6:47 am

Dave “ Elon Musk said he has a bad feeling about the economy and reducing staff by 10%…..he is definitely someone who has Merritt in his analysis.”

A lot has been made of Elon’s latest comments around the economy and his job cuts. There’s little debate around this man’s brilliance but this doesn’t necessarily transfer over into macro analysis. He’s one man with one opinion. – Ryan L

#104 baloney Sandwitch on 06.05.22 at 7:48 am

No Realtors and TNLB’s in “high demand” jobs ?

Truth is lot of these high demand jobs are pretty crappy. I used to be a pharmacist in the past life. High stress, high volume and constant fear of making a mistake which can cost someone’s life. Also thankless, people think you are just a pill counter and not someone with 6 years of university.

#105 Phylis on 06.05.22 at 8:37 am

Thanks guys!

#106 ogdoad on 06.05.22 at 9:15 am

#103 Been There on 06.05.22 at 6:28 am

I here ya. But on my end, so far, so good.

Investments? Check. Pension? Check. Foot-loose and fancy free for the rest of my breathing years? Check. Young? Check. Abs? Check. Living the best I can? Check.

Come on, man! Lack of imagination is what’s hold’n y’all back.

Og

#107 millmech on 06.05.22 at 9:39 am

Ryan,
It starts as a trickle. https://nypost.com/2022/05/31/tech-layoffs-companies-axe-workers-at-highest-rate-since-2020/

#108 crowdedelevatorfartz on 06.05.22 at 9:50 am

@#74 The Garburator
“Do you own a tool chest?”
+++
Absolutely.
All “tools” require a tool chest.
Speaking of “tools”.

How’s Putin doing these days?
Has he had a paralyzing stroke on the toilet yet?
Like his hero Stalin?

#109 NoName on 06.05.22 at 10:02 am

Went yesterday to costco to by getting gas had enough left over to buy me melon, what wonderful feeling perhaps I cathed sugar high.

Catchie summer, press play.
https://youtu.be/E07s5ZYygMg

#110 Brett in Calgary on 06.05.22 at 10:07 am

Who the heck would go to college only to come out and work for $19 an hour and change?

#111 I don't know on 06.05.22 at 10:16 am

#74 crowdedelevatorfartz on 06.04.22 at 6:52 pm

“When was the last time you saw sunlight?”

-Two groups of people are often conflated. Frustrated people, and people are frustrated and want to burn it all down. Engage the first group, understand the second group is a lost cause.

IDK

#112 Sail Away on 06.05.22 at 10:27 am

#102 under the radar on 06.05.22 at 5:26 am

I use a gas powered 32 ton log splitter. I have a well crafted Gransfor splitting maul which I bring along . As for stacking , 5 ft high between towering pines near my pond. Very beautiful if you ask me. The wood is exposed to the west and dries out in a season or less.

———-

Very nice. Stockpiled wood is money in the bank. And useful. Dry arbutus firewood makes excellent woodworking mallets and tool handles.

#113 DON on 06.05.22 at 10:56 am

#102 under the radar on 06.05.22 at 5:26 am
I use a gas powered 32 ton log splitter. I have a well crafted Gransfor splitting maul which I bring along . As for stacking , 5 ft high between towering pines near my pond. Very beautiful if you ask me. The wood is exposed to the west and dries out in a season or less.

******

I chainsaw with one hand, split the wood with the other with a focused karate chop then kick the wood into a nicely piled stack and use my powerful lungs to air dry the wood on spot.

#114 Ponzius Pilatus on 06.05.22 at 11:21 am

#104 Ryan Lewenza on 06.05.22 at 6:47 am
Dave “ Elon Musk said he has a bad feeling about the economy and reducing staff by 10%…..he is definitely someone who has Merritt in his analysis.”

A lot has been made of Elon’s latest comments around the economy and his job cuts. There’s little debate around this man’s brilliance but this doesn’t necessarily transfer over into macro analysis. He’s one man with one opinion. – Ryan L
——————————-
I’m not so sure how history will judge Elon Musk.
Could be another Howard Hughes in the making.

#115 The Regulator on 06.05.22 at 1:25 pm

# 112 – idk : Who said anything about burning it all down? Facts escape you. Speaking of lost causes…
# 109 – fart-bot : Besides your salivating for the demise of stupid people and their stupid decisions, or your smug attitude and being the s-m-r-t-est person in the room, could you at least have a worthy comeback, instead of infantile gibberish?

#116 Tom from Mississauga on 06.05.22 at 7:53 pm

Boomers have entered mass retirement, the most skilled and professional generation in history. They are being replaced by a smaller gen of kids that lost 2 years education, mentoring and ESL immigrants. Loss of productivity will push GDP lower even as employment stays full.

#117 Bob Dog on 06.06.22 at 1:51 am

80k per year for a software developer. Only in Canada. I clear over 160k for an American co working from home in van

Canadians are losers. Immigration is pummeling tech salaries in Canada.