‘The bull is over’

We must burn another post on the CB.

Thursday morning the yield on Government of Canada five-year bonds zipped higher by a bunch, and now flutters around the 3% mark. We haven’t even come close to this in more than a decade. A year ago the yield was 0.8%. It’s more than tripled.

This matters, why?

First, Mr. Trudeau and the rest of the LNDP administration have doubled the national debt since coming to office in 2015, and we now owe $1.169 trillion (federal only). That’s not expected to even stabilize (that is, stop growing) until 2027. All that debt is financed by bonds and equivalent securities. The cost to us taxpayers this year is $27 billion. That was before yesterday’s rate hike – and there are several more to come. The cost will be at least $50 billion annually by the time of the next election.

Fifty billion in interest charges is… how much?

The enhanced Canada Child Benefit costs $27 billion a year. Paying OAS to everyone over the age of 65 costs $59 billion annually. The entire military has a budget of $24 billion. Ottawa spends $26 billion a year supporting indigenous causes and population. Ten-buck-a-day child care will cost $30 billion over the next few years.

So, yes, $50,000,000,000 is not chump change. What’s happening with the CB rate will somewhat blow up government finances when our debt already equals 120% of the economy. Higher taxes? Count on it.

Second this five-year bond yield materially impacts mortgage rates.

Central bank’s message: we’ve only started

The yield on Canada 5-year bonds surged back near the 3% level following the Bank of Canada’s hawk-talk on Wednesday. This influences not only mortgage rates but impact financing of the country’s balloo0ning federal debt. Source: Investing.com

The higher the yield on these bonds, the more that five-year, fixed-rate mortgages cost Canadians. These days we’re sitting at close to 4.5% for fivers, and the qualifying rate for borrowers has spiked over 6%. The impact so far – with at least a full 1% yet to come in the CB rate – is material. House sales have been whacked. Prices are tumbling in those areas where they escalated insanely. Homes in suburban areas are losing $100,000 a month (or more).

In Vancouver rockstar realtor and blogger Steve Saretsky says, “the pandemic-induced suburban housing bull market is over. Now comes the hangover. In Vancouver’s suburbs (Fraser Valley) home sales plunged 54% year/year in May. Prices are adjusting quickly.”

In Toronto the average low-rise home has shed $240,000 since February, says broker John Pasalis (you know…). This constitutes a roll-back to 2021 pricing in a few weeks. It’s a start. “I don’t know where prices will go from here,” he says, “but it’s worth noting the average price of a low-rise home pre-Covid was $1 million.”

It seems we might be headed there, from $1.68 million during the winter, when mortgages were still sub-3%, to mill in a couple of months. That’s 40%. (The last big plop – 33 years ago – was 32%. and it took 14 years to recover.)

There’s more.

Third, Ottawa’s housing agency has just officially acknowledged the early stages of an historic price correction. This is interesting news – which means we may soon be asked to subsidize newbie buyers who face losses on their ill-timed residential adventure.

Remember the shared-equity mortgage? It’s officially called the First-Time Home Buyer Incentive, under which Ottawa chips in up to 10% of a fresh owner’s mortgage. When the home is sold the government gets a cut of the gains. That also mean when real estate sells at a loss, taxpayers cough up. But just announced is a loss-limit provision. For all new buyers getting a fed-assisted mortgage after yesterday, “The Government of Canada will limit its share in the depreciation of a home at the time of repayment. This is up to a maximum loss of 8% per annum (not compounded) on the Incentive amount from the date of advance to the time of repayment.”

Of course a ton of houses just fell 20% in a month. So this should prove interesting.

Finally, the Bank of Canada statement yesterday made things worse by rattling the bond market and signaling our policymakers are not only behind the curve, but they’re obsessed. In a 432-word release, the CB used the word “inflation” no fewer than twelve times. For example:

“Inflation globally and in Canada continues to rise… well above the Bank’s forecast – and will likely move even higher in the near term before beginning to ease.”

“The risk of elevated inflation becoming entrenched has risen. The Bank will use its monetary policy tools to return inflation to target.”

“With the economy in excess demand, and inflation persisting well above target and expected to move higher in the near term, the Governing Council continues to judge that interest rates will need to rise further.”

“The Governing Council is prepared to act more forcefully if needed to meet its commitment to achieve the 2% inflation target.”

This is what we mean by “hawkish” (as opposed to “dovish”) language. It was some of the most forceful and aggressive in Canadian central bank history. The intent is to send the unequivocal message rates are going a lot higher and a lot quicker than Joe Frontporch ever thought possible. If the inflation data in May is ugly – and you have a VRM, a fat HELOC or a mortgage coming up for renewal – you’re about to sit on a cactus.

If you bought a house in the snow, may Dog have mercy.

About the picture: “My partner and I had the good fortune to get a picture of the driver parked across the street from the Union Club in Victoria last week,” writes Michael. “Just sharing, Thank You for all that you do!”

138 comments ↓

#1 HouseHungry on 06.02.22 at 1:39 pm

How do you know whether a condo building is going to tear you apart in fees? With inflation so high will all associated maintenance costs just keep going up?

#2 Linda on 06.02.22 at 1:46 pm

While the news for those who bought RE at the peak isn’t good, the fact remains that even if prices in the GTA drop to $1 million that is still well beyond the reach of a hefty chunk of the Canadian population. The fact mortgage rates will be increasing will, as pointed out in earlier posts, ensure the cost of servicing the mortgage will likely remain as high as payments being made by those who bought when mortgage rates were lower but RE prices were higher.

I’d add I am not at all in favor of ‘helping out’ those who decided to take on such epic debt via our taxpayer dollars. Regardless of what the number of applicants may be our tax dollars should be going towards services that benefit all Canadians. Like infrastructure, the cost of which makes RE look cheap by comparison & which has not been maintained/replaced in far too many locales.

#3 TurnerNation on 06.02.22 at 1:52 pm

Dear Diary, what a day on the weblog yesterday. Søren Angst got into the Aperol and posted comments, like 30 times.

—-
Life in Kanada:

.STIs spreading aggressively in Canada as testing, prevention abandoned during pandemic theglobeandmail.com)

SO We must flatten the STI curve to Protect Our Health Care System. We need strict STI rules and enforcement. I propose that the most VUNERABLE in our society, the BOOMERS follow distancing guidelines at home. And maintain 6-6-6 feet away in the bedroom.
Add Mandatory Weekly testing, and proof of negative test results to enter any social activity where there is a risk of BOOMERS meeting up and ‘knocking da boots’ afterward.

—–

Life in Kanada. The #1 offence is ThoughCrimes. Conform Comrades. To the Party’s Platform.

.The Globe and Mail reports in its Thursday, June 2, edition that Stuart Kirk is a financial executive who either erred by making an ill-advised departure from his employer’s messaging on climate change, or played devil’s advocate and became a victim of corporate cancel culture. The Globe’s Jeffrey Jones writes that Mr. Kirk, the top executive in charge of responsible investing at HSBC’s asset-management arm, went off the British bank’s script at a public forum last month by criticizing those who make dire predictions about climate change and play up the finance industry’s responsibilities for combatting it. He has been sidelined as a result….
Mr. Kirk said the financial risk stemming from climate change is overblown, and that over 25 years in the finance industry he was always hearing from “some nut job” warning of end times. HSBC chief executive officer Noel Quinn said Mr. Kirk’s comments did not reflect HSBC’s strategy. (stockwatch.com)

#4 Victoria on 06.02.22 at 2:02 pm

Hi Garth! I am in Victoria and all I hear is that prices will NEVER go down because EVERYBODY IN THE WHOLE WIDE WORLD wants to live here. (I know many people that are leaving because of the climate – not as great as people think – and the downtown situation).

I would love it if you did a post on Victoria.

Cheers!

#5 ElGatoNeroYVR on 06.02.22 at 2:11 pm

#3 TurnerNation on 06.02.22 at 1:52 pm
Mr. Kirk, the top executive in charge of responsible investing at HSBC’s asset-management arm, went off the British bank’s script at a public forum last month by criticizing those who make dire predictions about climate change and play up the finance industry’s responsibilities for combatting it. He has been sidelined as a result….
=============
True story. Mr. Kirk is a modern day hero . Unfortunately his fate is the same as all other heroes ,past and present ,they all end up dead and potentially recognized in posterity.
The whole ESG rating of funds is a big scam.

#6 Danger Dan on 06.02.22 at 2:17 pm

The average productive person with a full-time job should be able to afford a house of their own. I’m not talking about a McMansion either, I just mean the sort of humble home you’d see in Bancroft or in any of the other small economically-depressed rural towns dotting the country.

If the BoC isn’t willing to step it up a notch and acknowledge the *real* rate of inflation, because they’re more keen to create some sort of “soft landing”, then the consequences of that will reverberate through the decades as this country continues to lose its best and brightest to the land of opportunity ~200km to the south of us.

#7 None on 06.02.22 at 2:18 pm

“Hi Garth! I am in Victoria and all I hear is that prices will NEVER go down because EVERYBODY IN THE WHOLE WIDE WORLD wants to live here. (I know many people that are leaving because of the climate – not as great as people think – and the downtown situation).”

The https://househuntvictoria.ca/ blog is very good for that.

I agree. Victoria is nice and all but it’s not invincible. It can’t be. I really wonder if the oldies in Oak Bay see house prices tanking if they all cash out at once to get their $$$ and move somewhere you can actually get a Doctor.

#8 ElGatoNeroYVR on 06.02.22 at 2:19 pm

#59 The Regulator on 06.01.22 at 3:31 pm
Finally, W.E.F. technocrats are urging people (meaning everybody but them) to ditch meat and other foods deemed harmful to the planet and instead consume “climate beneficial foods” such as seaweed, algae and cacti. Mmmmmmmm. Next to eating bugs and drinking reprossessed sewage water, what’s not to like?
===============
I have tried bugs and seaweed and algae and really don’t see the problem. They taste perfectly fine and are quite nutritious. You shuld try it with an opened mind.
Now the repossed sewage might be a bridge too far ,even for me.

#9 The Original Jake on 06.02.22 at 2:21 pm

The covid hangover continues to spin our heads. The list is long and I think rates will join that list by going a lot higher than even the bears think.

#10 Shirl Clarts on 06.02.22 at 2:25 pm

#4 Victoria on 06.02.22 at 2:02 pm
Hi Garth! I am in Victoria and all I hear is that prices will NEVER go down because EVERYBODY IN THE WHOLE WIDE WORLD wants to live here. (I know many people that are leaving because of the climate – not as great as people think – and the downtown situation).

I would love it if you did a post on Victoria.

Cheers!

——————————
Well, apparently you finally stopped pooping in the ocean after 100 years. There’s a reason to stay I guess. But modern sewage treatment is everywhere, so not a good enough reason for prices to continue climbing there, and not everywhere else.

#11 CL on 06.02.22 at 2:25 pm

I still say they’ll drop the stress test. If people had to borrow at 5+% with the stress test when rates were lower then it should be a wash and prices should remain flat aside from those that were in the fomo crowd and drove prices to insane levels.

Calgary is only catching up. Prices still “cheap” compared to the looney tune other Canadian metro’s. I watch the real estate market (owned and rental) closely everyday to keep my finger on the pulse of things and not much supply, all housing is moving fast even condos and some condos are being bid up but still, not to insane levels…not yet. Good luck finding a place to rent too. Rents have popped significantly even for less then stellar units because there’s hardly anything for rent. Even those are commanding over $1300/mth when they were about $1000 not long ago and incentives for anything are gone.

#12 PeterfromCalgary on 06.02.22 at 2:26 pm

“So, yes, $50,000,000,000 is not chump change. What’s happening with the CB rate will somewhat blow up government finances when our debt already equals 120% of the economy. Higher taxes? Count on it.”

Interest on the government debt is below inflation so bond holders are subsidizing the government debt. Only if interest rates exceed the inflation rate will servicing the debt be difficult.

#13 Doug t on 06.02.22 at 2:29 pm

#4 Victoria

I live near the Ross bay cemetery- Vic is highly overrated- horrible mayor and city council- infrastructure is a mess – waaaaay to expensive- homeless population growing – opioids on another level – smugness off the hook by many well to doers- I’ve been here over 25 years and the temptation to leave grows more and more

#14 Honest Banker on 06.02.22 at 2:34 pm

Tiff “Rates will be low for a long, long time” Macklem is suddenly believable?

They were attempting “forward guidance” a strong economy before, and they are trying to do the same to the markets now on the way down. It won’t work, Mr. Market is fighting the fed because they simply don’t believe central banks have the courage to tighten past neutral and put Donald Trump Jr in the white house.

CB’s are all talk these days, about as credible and reliable as the steerage section.

#15 Cancel Canada Day on 06.02.22 at 2:46 pm

When you add in the $400 Billion that we need to give to First Nations peoples for reconciliation, this debt picture looks even more grim.

We must make amends.

#16 Jim on 06.02.22 at 2:48 pm

On many parts of Vancouver Island, they are still asking delusional prices and when I check for what many have sold for, they are selling within plus or minus 3% of asking price.

#17 Outrage on 06.02.22 at 2:49 pm

First of all the CB has no credibility. They created the housing bubble and the government got more property taxes into their coffer’s. Its like a planned train wreck. They want to create a buffer zone like the last couple of times SFH.
Also I don’t know why T2 just didn’t come out and say all handguns are banned and with all the 1500 restricted rifles will need to be handed into the RCMP by December 31 2022. There will be a $500 process and dismantle fee. If you don’t comply a $10,000 fine and 1 year jail sentenced will be imposed. He can do this, he has a majority government and the backing of the people.

#18 Keith on 06.02.22 at 2:51 pm

#4 Victoria

Our host has mentioned that Victoria is the top choice of cities to retire in for Canadians, so having the highest winter temperatures in Canada and half the rainfall of Vancouver will always count for a lot. Real estate is still cheaper than Vancouver or Toronto.

#19 Ballingsford on 06.02.22 at 2:59 pm

Garth, what does this mean exactly?

“The Government of Canada will limit its share in the depreciation of a home at the time of repayment. This is up to a maximum loss of 8% per annum (not compounded) on the Incentive amount from the date of advance to the time of repayment.”

Does it mean, if the govt forked over $100,000 (10%) on a million dollar home, and the home later sells for $800,000, then the govt can only lose up to $80,000? Homeowner has to come up with the other $20,000 to pay back the govt?

#20 Captain Uppa on 06.02.22 at 3:00 pm

Calgary looking very appealing to us who could cash out from OntariOWE.

Big city. No humidity. Sure, some snow, but whatevs.

Now I just need my company to officially approve of working-from-home because it’s a sweet gig I have.

Hope they’re not friends with Elon.

#21 cuke and tomato picker on 06.02.22 at 3:00 pm

Number 4 we came to the Central Saanich and Sidney
area about 16 years ago and love in here. We spent 37 years in the South Okanagan and enjoyed being in the fruit industry but retiring to the Saanich Peninsula
has been nothing but awesome for us.

#22 Grateful in Victoria on 06.02.22 at 3:02 pm

I live in Victoria and I love it.
When we retired we decided to go back to Ontario to live close the relatives. We did several trips to Europe. One day after 2 years living back in Ontario we stood along the Seine in Paris and I said to my husband, Paris is beautiful but not more so than Victoria. We decided that day when we got back from that vacation we would move back to Victoria.
That was 2008 and we have never looked back. It truly is Dog’s Country.

#23 Prince Polo on 06.02.22 at 3:07 pm

May you please check on Ryan? He must be having a conniption over all of this unadulterated spending!

Any chance the shyster (realtor) cartel gets obliterated in the process and replaced with housing fiduciary facilitators? That would be legislation that I can support!!

Signed,
a loser renter

#24 Captain Nanaimo on 06.02.22 at 3:08 pm

And while we wait for May stats to show home prices never come down in Nanaimo, we can’t help but wonder whether all roads lead to a reset. It will be great, perhaps even epic.

#25 whufee on 06.02.22 at 3:09 pm

“buy bond funds” feels like an appropriate summation to this post

#26 Faron on 06.02.22 at 3:11 pm

#190 Sail Away on 06.02.22 at 11:48 am

Both meanspirited and not a question. Hypocritical and bad at following directions. A Sail Away classic!

Also, FYI, an adult’s weight/mortality fxn is not monotonic. i.e. below ideal weight one is at greater risk of death/morbidity. Ideal weight is heavier than one may think. Q.o.L. is another matter.

“Good DNA” LOL.

#27 Faron on 06.02.22 at 3:15 pm

W/re cars, it’s not so much vehicle tribalism as the objective quality of said cars and usefully informing people of garbage to avoid. Teslas are, increasingly, garbage to avoid. NTM platform for scams.

#28 Overheardyou on 06.02.22 at 3:15 pm

Balloon meets cactus…[insert meme]

#29 Faron on 06.02.22 at 3:23 pm

W/re gov’t debt. Interest on currently financed debt doesn’t change. Bonds have a fixed coupon. Garth, implying that higher rates immediately affect all gov’t debt is disingenuous. Rolling the debt or deficit spending is another matter.

Also, conservatives often cry for austerity at financial bottoms. That is incorrect timing. At bottoms of business cycles is when you want to stimulate demand and gov’t spending is a great way to do it. This implies that right now, when inflation is high, is the time to bring in reduced gov’t spending. If CBs had a say, they would promote austerity today, the top, rather than the case during the GFC of nations calling for austerity at the bottom.

I implied no such thing, but gave numbers of current and expected interest payments which came from the federal Department of Finance. Bonds are continuously rolling out of maturities so there is, indeed, an immediate creep in financing changes. However, as the post clearly stated (read harder, Faron) future interest charges could be withering as the bank rate doubles, triples and quadruples – as is currently occurring. By the way, we are no where near the bottom of a business cycle. That was the pandemic recession. Sheesh, I expected more of you. – Garth

#30 neptunian on 06.02.22 at 3:27 pm

if the listing number is not going up significantly, the real going down is yet to happen.

this is just the beginning, let’s see when the investors start dumping…

#31 Gen Z on 06.02.22 at 3:27 pm

Why are tax dollars subsidizing first time home buyers, when social assistance rates are a pain to be increased federally and provincially?

#32 Søren Angst on 06.02.22 at 3:33 pm

#3 TurnerNation

Aperol.

Not straight up. I use it in a Spritz (the recipe is on the Aperol bottle and I have all the ingredients in my fridge). If you add a few drops of Angostura, a bitter and also in my fridge, it takes the sweetness* out of it and makes it neat. Spritz is a popular Venetian cocktail & refreshing on hot Summer days. The Angostura tip was from a Palermo bartender.

Campari.

Straight up, zest of lemon, some ice cubes = aperitivo. If I dine out I have a glass before a meal here in Italia.

Not bad there TN for a Mangia Cake.

—————-

* Prosecco, if not a Brut extra dry, can be a little on the sweet side (the less expensive varieties). The best Prosecco is from the Valdobbiadene region (also in my fridge) which is 50 km from where I live. One of my cousins in Fontanafredda, 6 km from where I live, makes Prosecco wine and he is good at it. Always scrounge a few bottles from him in the Summer for when I make Spritz. He makes a Brut extra dry.

The top rated #1 Prosecco this year in Italia is “Corderìe – Astoria”. 6 pack will run you €80 on Amazon.it. Ya, that was 6, SIX bottles.

https://www.amazon.it/Valdobbiadene-Prosecco-Superiore-DOCG-Extra/dp/B07NCXKZQS

I buy VALDO MARCA ORO a perennial top 10, 6 pack for €53.50 at Amazon.it.

https://latop10.it/migliori-prosecco/

Italia where you don’t need a HELOC to buy a good bottle of Prosecco unlike the LCBO:

https://www.lcbo.com/en/freixenet-prosecco-doc-21660
€9 or so at Amazon.it, free shipping with Prime.

Cdns get ripped off when it comes to good Italian wines.

#33 Hurtin' Albertan on 06.02.22 at 3:38 pm

Even Bill Morneau is voicing concerns on Canada’s economic outlook:

https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/morneau-economy-speech-1.6474527

Regarding government debt financing and program costs and how to pay for these (taxes), there is debate about their effectiveness but UK-style windfall taxes on oil and gas profits seem to be growing in popularity. Biden is rumored to be considering the idea:

https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/US-Economic-Officials-Says-Biden-Considering-Oil-Tax-Windfall-Tax.html

This is a good article with some analysis of the idea from a Canadian context:

https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/should-canada-slap-a-new-tax-on-oil-gas-industry-profits-171948872.html?soc_src=social-sh&soc_trk=ma

Here in Alberta, our provincial masters will have to decide what to do with a massive energy royalty windfall:

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/calgary/next-alberta-premier-decision-royalty-revenue-1.6472980

#34 Sail Away on 06.02.22 at 3:39 pm

#197 dragonfly58 on 06.02.22 at 12:24 pm

Sail Away, you are an Engineer. Consider this, good cars are light cars. I have always chosen the lightest cars I can afford. First MG’s, then as my earnings increased I moved up to first Lotus Europa’s and later TVR’s. Finally cashed in my overtime bank at retirement and splurged on my life long goal , a late 1970’s Lola Sports 2000. About as light a 2 liter, full width bodywork car as was ever made. Finally automotive nirvana. A Tesla weighs HOW MUCH !! Doesn’t that upset your inner Engineering sense of efficient design ?

——–

True, light cars use less energy, so are more efficient than heavy cars. The main problem is that cars have to carry their energy source with them. ICE cars use a heavy engine and lighter fuel. EV cars use light engines and heavy batteries.

Sailboats harness wind energy directly and need no engine.

The holy grail for cars is an energy source that need not be carried with the vehicle.

Other factors also play a role in the total efficiency picture. Our 2015 Tesla has 42,000 km. 2020 4Runner has 9,000 km. Work is 5km away for me and 1.3km for my wife and we bike in most days using strategically cached fat reserves for energy.

#35 Faron on 06.02.22 at 3:39 pm

@Sail Away

W/re doxxing, your (strange) demand that I doxx you proved a useful puzzle. Question is, how does one transmit information in public without revealing the contents? Cryptography of course. To that end:

21eb13a8c966c451949493d623cb99801ee5d4b248adb5ed12207683edd377172056f4f50a73ca7072f01fe2dcc35b6868335b0e61d37819ab99c83f0aa60f7d

Am I right? More importantly, have I doxxed you (i.e. can people who don’t share your personal info decode the above)?

Enjoy.

#36 Tony on 06.02.22 at 3:44 pm

There’s already talk of a .75 hike for July so a lot of people already know the inflation figure for May in Canada. I don’t know how far north of 7 percent it is.

#37 Søren Angst on 06.02.22 at 3:44 pm

Garth, it’s like the ’80s all over again save full employment. Early to mid 80’s we pretty much had Stagflation.

CBs will be hell bent on stomping down inflation. I don’t blame them. Last thing they want is inflation to persist and then have the job market go belly up.

Even Janet Yellen worries about Stagflation:

“The economic outlook globally,” Yellen said, “is challenging and uncertain, and higher food and energy prices are having stagflationary effects, namely depressing output and spending and raising inflation all around the world.”

https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-covid-health-63a9d0ec0ee778dcdd8355b3ffebb99e

Luckily, a ways away from that in Canada.

Good for the Kids. Soon homes will be affordable for them.

And THAT is a good thing.

———————

Good you mentioned Gov debt Garth. Wanted to say something about it with rates on the rise but you know, with all the bad news no need to heap an extra helping of doom on top of the gloom.

Cdns need to know where their tax $$$ are going.

#38 active on 06.02.22 at 3:49 pm

Man having no debt is soooo awesome….i cant believe people waste money on interest charges…suckers!

#39 yvr_lurker on 06.02.22 at 3:59 pm

Paying OAS to everyone over the age of 65 costs $59 billion annually.
————-

The word “everyone” here needs to be modified. How much of the $59Billion is clawed back at tax time from the OAS owing to retirees having more than 80K per year on their tax return. Indeed it is good to put money in a TFSA so that it does not count as “income” for the CRA (i.e. towards the clawback threshold), but there are many people I’m sure who do not get much if anything from the OAS net of clawback, and so the word “everyone” is incorrect. For our family, it will all be clawed back when the time comes to retire, and there will be no way around it. A “Gov’t benefit” that we will not benefit one nickel from.

I am fully supportive though of giving $$$ for the enhanced child benefit scheme to give kids living in poverty a better chance. No gripe from me on this one.

The word “everyone” is correct, as the benefit is universal, and the figure quoted is net of clawbacks. The vast majority of Canadians keep most of their OAS, as full clawback does not occur until you have a retirement income in excess of $130,000. StatsCan reports the average income for an individual 65 or older was $43,200 in 2020. – Garth

#40 Søren Angst on 06.02.22 at 4:00 pm

Forgot.

I have admired Queen Elizabeth II my entire life.

Happy 70th Platinum Jubilee Your Majesty.

May you reign forever.

Rainbow dress color collage of her I found in Corriere della Sera today where she made headlines news even though today is Republic Day in Italia:

https://twitter.com/bsant54/status/1532323607342460928

A monarch for the ages.

#41 T Rex and the dinosaur clique on 06.02.22 at 4:01 pm

Why I don’t trust governments:

“The Government of Canada will limit its share in the depreciation of a home at the time of repayment. This is up to a maximum loss of 8% per annum (not compounded) on the Incentive amount from the date of advance to the time of repayment.”

And now they are collecting the CERB back from everyone:

https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/cra-debt-cerb-letters-1.6448462

Yeah, trust your government to pay your bills. Roll out the UBI. No one ever needs to worry again….unless they change the rules with no notice to you….

In other news…

The MSM in Ontario got hold of some twitter feeds of Ford’s daughter apparently not entirely in favour of gun control – wow, the headlines here. You’d think she was still 16 and living at home (not a fully grown married adult woman who lives with her husband).

Some brave souls pointed out, at risk of being cancel cultured, that another Ontario Premier hopeful also has an adult child who might not be entirely on board with the whole gun control thingy:

https://www.blogto.com/city/2022/06/ontario-ndp-leader-son-posed-assault-rifle/

Oh how our MSM likes to play propaganda.

Vote for a Liberal/NDP coalition….because none of the leader’s children are gun freaks….oh, well, OK, maybe just one…..

#42 NOSTRADAMUS on 06.02.22 at 4:10 pm

TIME BOMB!
Real estate speculators will soon come to realize the uptick in interest rates have lit the fuse on the time bomb strapped to their chests.
Manipulation? Home and stock prices remind me of diamond prices, there isn’t a limited supply, just a form of market manipulation all controlled by the diamond cartel. Apply this observation to the decade long, extraordinarily low interest rates and the conclusion is obvious, when considering housing and stock prices-MMMM, The Devil’s footprints are all over this one. Steady Lads, hold the line.

#43 Caffeine Monkey on 06.02.22 at 4:12 pm

Meanwhile, the S&P was up 1.84% today. Me: sitting here with a balanced portfolio, all nice and relaxed. Good times.

#44 Monty on 06.02.22 at 4:13 pm

We got into the SFH market during COVID as people got house hungry in 2020…prices inflated, lines out the door for open houses…

Renewal time is 2024. Do we sell before that time or endure the pain and hope for the best then (lower sales, lower prices across the board)?

#45 Sail Away on 06.02.22 at 4:32 pm

#35 Faron on 06.02.22 at 3:39 pm
@Sail Away

W/re doxxing, your (strange) demand that I doxx you proved a useful puzzle. Question is, how does one transmit information in public without revealing the contents? Cryptography of course. To that end:

21eb13a8c966c451949493d623cb99801ee5d4b248adb5ed12207683edd377172056f4f50a73ca7072f01fe2dcc35b6868335b0e61d37819ab99c83f0aa60f7d

Am I right? More importantly, have I doxxed you (i.e. can people who don’t share your personal info decode the above)?

Enjoy.

———

Hmmm… that’s totally not something a mentally unstable compulsively obsessed stalker might do.

Just take the pills bro. Check yourself in.

#46 jess on 06.02.22 at 4:35 pm

speaking of bull does that include an end to all the ridiculous conspiracy theories?

And these dudes are law makers! “I yam disgustipated”

Denver Riggleman, a former Republican congressman assisted the January 6th.committee decode/link texts that were sent to and from Trump White House Chief of Staff Mark Meadows. What he uncovered scared him

#47 cramar on 06.02.22 at 4:37 pm

#36 Tony on 06.02.22 at 3:44 pm

There’s already talk of a .75 hike for July so a lot of people already know the inflation figure for May in Canada. I don’t know how far north of 7 percent it is.

That’s all I’ve been hearing on the business news today, that come July the rate hike could be .75 instead of .5%. I wonder if the powers-that-be are just preparing the public for the done deal?

If those brilliant dudes in the BoC had started raising rates last year, they might not be sending parts of the economy into shock by playing catch up.

#48 Crystal ball futurist on 06.02.22 at 4:40 pm

Another attempt at forecasting the future:

Houses in our neighborhood selling for 1.5mil.
Avg family income in our neighborhood 175k.
I can buy if the house price was 700k. (4×175).
Price drop expected: 54%

If avg income rises due to inflation to 200k.
Price drop expected: 46%

Last plop was 32%, this one should be closer to 50%.

That’s growth :)

#49 Sail Away on 06.02.22 at 4:41 pm

Re: OAS for nonresidents

If an eligible OAS recipient is a non-tax resident of Canada, OAS is paid out minus 25% withholding tax and no clawback is applied, then further tax or withholding is in accordance with laws of the country of tax residence.

https://filingtaxes.ca/what-happens-to-your-cpp-and-oas-if-you-retire-outside-canada/

#50 Victoria on 06.02.22 at 4:43 pm

“I live in Victoria and I love it”. – Grateful in Victoria

Well that is nice. Lived in Paris for 15 years and loved it. We are thinking of moving back to Europe. South of France or Portugal. Possibly Spain.

Victoria is changing. The climate is changing. Doesn’t have a lot of great restaurants or culture for the size of it. Grey 7 months of the year. It is not for everyone.

#51 jess on 06.02.22 at 4:44 pm

The US Securities and Exchange Commission on Tuesday released a new commercial called “Investomania: Meme Stocks

some are not happy lol
The 30-second video is a parody of a game show,
https://thedeepdive.ca/sec-punches-down-on-retail-investors-with-new-ad/

#52 Victoria on 06.02.22 at 4:48 pm

Keith – no Victoria does not have a mild climate – it just doesn’t have snow. It is nasty cold that cuts through you like a knife and the grey days are endless.

I guess it is good for retired people that like to do what I don’t know. Not a lot of culture here. Rather boring. Also crime is going up.

#53 Happy Housing Crash Everyone! on 06.02.22 at 4:51 pm

Have a great sales season, Shysters!

#54 Ponnaps on 06.02.22 at 4:53 pm

inflation way above target..CB stating no other way but to hike another 50 bips come July.. and more to come.. why not just hike 75 or 100 bips yesterday?

Fail to understand why CB chooses to prolong the agony..
When they’re already behind on the tightening cycle.. what in the world do they expect to change in 45 days?

#55 Tony on 06.02.22 at 5:01 pm

Re: #43 Caffeine Monkey on 06.02.22 at 4:12 pm

Coincided exactly with the DXY dollar index at 10:26am. The dollar should make one final gasp higher with the May CPI before going on a long decline. The bear market rally could last all the way until the start of January 2023.

#56 CB Hawk on 06.02.22 at 5:10 pm

During the past couple years I lost faith in fellow Canadians. ‘We’ accepted unscientific Government decrees like sheep (ok in the beginning, as there were many unknowns). To make matters even worse, now that the rest of the world has somewhat normalized and removed most mandates, we’re still trusting the ‘authorities’. See article below.

From reading many comments here, people actually seem to believe that the CBs give a crap about the 99%. It’s infantile to believe that they actually ‘worry’ about the average citizen. If they did, they wouldn’t have allowed rates to stay so low for so long. The outcome was known as we’ve had precedents (ie USA 2003-07)
Closing the barn door after the horses are gone … this is what this ‘hawkish’ tone is: symbolic.

From the National Post:

“As governments around the world, including Canada’s provinces, continue to remove pandemic restrictions, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s Liberal government is one of the few that is clinging to measures that no longer seem logical — like a Leafs fan who irrationally holds out hope each year that the team’s losing streak will finally come to an end.”

https://nationalpost.com/opinion/jesse-kline-liberals-ignore-reality-on-usefulness-of-travel-vaccine-mandates#Echobox=1654173570

#57 Kilt on 06.02.22 at 5:20 pm

#4 Victoria
(I know many people that are leaving because of the climate – not as great as people think – and the downtown situation).

Clearly you have never lived anywhere else in Canada. How about snow 8 months of the year! And those places come with their own “downtown” problems.
Prices on the Island will go down. However, as long as you can sell a home on the mainland for $2 million, and oil-patch is still alive, you are always going to have demand for Island homes.

Kilt

#58 dragonfly58 on 06.02.22 at 5:31 pm

I used to crew on a good sized, steel hulled ketch back in the late 1970’s. Getting in and out of marinas needed an engine. Particularly coming back up the river to its Ladner Harbor home. Depending on the tide and the time of year the engine sometimes loafed along and sometimes worked very hard indeed. Sailing around work schedules can be a pita.

#59 alexinvestor on 06.02.22 at 5:33 pm

Problem is, you can only tax so much before people start rebelling by just doing cash jobs and just skipping out on taxes (which is happening more and more these days).

#60 Ustabe on 06.02.22 at 5:41 pm

#50 Victoria on 06.02.22 at 4:43 pm

We are thinking of moving back to Europe. South of France or Portugal. Possibly Spain.

South of Portugal, ignore Albufeira altogether, go to either Tavira or closer still to the border with Spain is Santo Antonio.

Fly into Lisbon, fly or bus to Faro, rent a car and drive to either town. We prefer Tavira. From there you are a day trip to Seville, to Gibraltar if you need fish and chips or the passenger ferry to Morocco, to so much stuff! And you are out of the main tourist belt, in a UNESCO World Heritage town.

We seem to always be able to get into a little 3 room rental on top of a shop right in old town, not sure how or why but my wife may have had something to do with that. Missed it these last few years.

#61 Old Ron the Realtor on 06.02.22 at 5:45 pm

The Covid Bounce From March 2020 to February 2022. The Average Toronto price jumped $432,000.

I expect all of that price increase will be given back by the end of this year. Then if Tiff walks the tough talk, I expect the prices to fall further.

Remember if the prices fell 40% from this Feb’s peak, they would still only be at June of 2018 levels. ($807,000) I wouldn’t rule it out.

* June 2018 – $807,000
March 2020 – $902,000
February 2022- $1,334.000

#62 Faron on 06.02.22 at 5:59 pm

I implied no such thing, but gave numbers of current and expected interest payments which came from the federal Department of Finance. Bonds are continuously rolling out of maturities so there is, indeed, an immediate creep in financing changes. However, as the post clearly stated (read harder, Faron) future interest charges could be withering as the bank rate doubles, triples and quadruples – as is currently occurring. By the way, we are no where near the bottom of a business cycle. That was the pandemic recession. Sheesh, I expected more of you. – Garth

Okay, my misunderstanding. A citation would have been helpful. Thanks for clarifying.

W/re business cycles I am certainly not saying we are at a bottom. We are at the inflationary top. I offered a rare concession from a liberal that austerity, if it is ever appropriate, is needed now because now is when the economy can bear it. Typically, conservative calls for austerity come in at the bottoms which is a fiscal mistake.

CBs can do their part to tamp inflation now and legislative bodies can also play a role. A smaller gov’t would send less money into the economy. Less demand is disinflationary. Disinflationary pressures are what is now needed. I bet we would agree here.

Thanks for the discussion.
Faron

#63 Faron on 06.02.22 at 6:15 pm

#45 Sail Away on 06.02.22 at 4:32 pm

Defamation Amber.

I’ll give away the answer to the cryptography challenge. That was a troll. A SHA3-512 hash of the plain text of a made-up (slightly insulting) address. I composed it as quickly as you eat big macs. I did think about the means for a while because it is an interesting problem. I’m proud of my solution. It is illustrative of how internet security works and is actually informative. Probably more useful nowadays than knowing where the bugbears of the Thompson lurk.

All I know about you is what many commenters know about you from the information you have offered here. If that counts as stalking then you are almost certainly guilty of the same as it pertains to me. You know my name and place of work (double standards again. More hypocrisy).

So negative and meanspirited you are. I’m not so small as to attack another’s mental health as quickly as you do. Although, we’re I a doctor, addiction would be on my differential for how you present here. There’s nothing wrong with that of course even if you would be ashamed.

#64 Faron on 06.02.22 at 6:21 pm

#34 Sail Away on 06.02.22 at 3:39 pm

Work is 5km away for me and 1.3km for my wife and we bike in most days using strategically cached fat reserves for energy

Uh, no you don’t.

#65 Bill Ferguson on 06.02.22 at 6:27 pm

Hmm, what’s the fixation some people have with Victoria? Sure, it’s nice, but not $1.5M+ “nice”. And, it’ll pop just like every other housing bubble anywhere in the world has done.

As for Steve Saretsky; no thanks. He pumped/shilled and flipped his way through the COVID run up like there like was no tomorrow Now it’s a case of “egg meets face” and, rightly so.

#66 Observer on 06.02.22 at 6:29 pm

#41
The MSM in Ontario got hold of some twitter feeds of Ford’s daughter apparently not entirely in favour of gun control – wow, the headlines here. You’d think she was still 16 and living at home (not a fully grown married adult woman who lives with her husband).

^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^

She also is a staunch anti-vaxer and freedom convoy supporter. Her cop husband got canned from the Toronto Police Services for refusing to get vaccinated. Family get togethers must be interesting.

#67 Observer on 06.02.22 at 6:31 pm

#39 I am fully supportive though of giving $$$ for the enhanced child benefit scheme to give kids living in poverty a better chance. No gripe from me on this one.

^^^^^^^^^^^^
Ask IDHCT9 how th CCB helps him to keep his kids from living in poverty.

#68 What Could Go Worse? on 06.02.22 at 6:38 pm

Phil Soper April 19, 2022:

Speaking with CP24 on Tuesday morning, Royal LePage President and CEO Phil Soper said that while there are signs that there could be some change afoot in the market, with the number of listings “increasingly slightly” in recent months, there is nothing to suggest that a correction is on the horizon.

Royal LePage, in fact, is still forecasting the average price of a home in the Greater Toronto Area to surpass $1.3 million by the end of 2022, which would equate to a 16.5 per cent year-over-year increase.

Phil Soper June 2, 2022

Don’t Call It a Crash

Resurgent activity will probably be led by bargain hunters finally unhindered by stiff competition, says Phil Soper, CEO of Royal LePage, noting they invariably come out of the woodwork every cycle. Moreover, Toronto’s population growth is so robust that it precludes affixing the word ‘crash’ to its real estate market.

“It’s definitely a short-term correction. The reason household formation in Canada is so strong is you have 400,000-plus new Canadians each year and you still have the largest organic population group in Canadian history,” Soper said. “The millennials are only halfway through their housing journey, and many, many more will end up buying homes. A lot of them are too young still.”

Is the “Bull—-” really over?

According to your rock star Vancouver realtor, immigrants are choosing to rent.

#69 Blobby on 06.02.22 at 6:43 pm

Good friends of mine bought a house in Calgary in the snow, they move in next week.

I advised them otherwise, but they had a recent child, and that meant they “had” to own property – and property prices only ever go up.

I feel bad for them. Even now they still think it’s a good idea and are putting on a brave face.

It’s quite sad to see it happening in real time to people :(

I could of course be all smug and “told you so”, but that would make me an absolute a-hole, and not much of a friend.

They dont even have that much money. They left Van to get a (lower paid) job there as it was “a place they could afford”.

#70 Maritime Caroline on 06.02.22 at 6:58 pm

#4 Victoria

Lived in Victoria for eight years after four decades in Montreal and Toronto. It was very nice for awhile (milder winters were a treat those first couple of years) but it’s culture less, city council is nuts and it’s not an easy place to relocate to. Victorians are not the friendliest types, they think it’s the best place on earth, and lots of Albertans seemed to relocate there. It’s overrated.
I lived on the ocean so I had a pristine visual experience but it was boring and dull. Relocated back to the east coast last fall and couldn’t be happier, winter and all four distinct seasons later.
The best part? The absolutely loveliest, kindest people in this country and real estate that’s still affordable. No regrets, coyote.

#71 Sail Away on 06.02.22 at 7:02 pm

#63 Faron on 06.02.22 at 6:15 pm
#45 Sail Away on 06.02.22 at 4:32 pm

Defamation Amber.

All I know about you is what many commenters know about you from the information you have offered here. If that counts as stalking then you are almost certainly guilty of the same as it pertains to me. You know my name and place of work

——–

You have indeed splashed your avatar’s name, place of work, credentials, position, birthplace, videos, home, etc. around this site, but I honestly couldn’t care less. Is it true? Who knows? Who cares?

Be that as it may, I strongly encourage you to file a defamation lawsuit against the Sail Away avatar; after all, unrequited spite can be truly corrosive, especially when combined with a strangely obsessive mental abnormality.

File the suit in cryptography or as interpretive performance art.

#72 Caffeine Monkey on 06.02.22 at 7:03 pm

#68 What Could Go Worse?

“It’s definitely a short-term correction.”
————
Realtors sure are sure of themselves, aren’t they? Based on history, we’re at the beginning of a decade-plus long cycle. What sort of explanations will the Realtors contrive when their thesis of blaming all of this on immigrants falls apart? I, for one, am looking forward to hearing it.

#73 Sail Away on 06.02.22 at 7:08 pm

#64 Faron on 06.02.22 at 6:21 pm
#34 Sail Away on 06.02.22 at 3:39 pm

Work is 5km away for me and 1.3km for my wife and we bike in most days using strategically cached fat reserves for energy

——–

Uh, no you don’t.

——–

Begone, nutter

#74 Ok,Doomer on 06.02.22 at 7:11 pm

I’m totally in favor of helping out people who have been ignorant and irresponsible. We’ve been paying for Trudeau’s stupidity for years, so this looks like a bargain.

#75 Ed on 06.02.22 at 7:18 pm

Pretty coincidental that frequent recent posts dissing Tesla quality corresponds to Elon admitting he can’t vote lefty.

#76 Nonplused on 06.02.22 at 7:21 pm

“The cost will be at least $50 billion annually by the time of the next election.”

Ah no problem, they’ll just add it to the tab.

If all other government borrowing except interest on the debt were to stop (through some miracle, maybe Devine intervention or something), the compound interest on the compound interest will eventually create a black hole that will suck in the entire Canadian economy. Low rates just hid that fact by making it look like it would take a really long time. But maybe not.

It’s how the banksters get you. They just keep loaning you money until they own you.

#77 DON on 06.02.22 at 7:32 pm

#65 Bill Ferguson on 06.02.22 at 6:27 pm
Hmm, what’s the fixation some people have with Victoria? Sure, it’s nice, but not $1.5M+ “nice”. And, it’ll pop just like every other housing bubble anywhere in the world has done.

As for Steve Saretsky; no thanks. He pumped/shilled and flipped his way through the COVID run up like there like was no tomorrow Now it’s a case of “egg meets face” and, rightly so.

************

Had the displeasure of navigating rush hour traffic in Victoria yesterday afternoon. I took the side roads through Vic West, the George, View Royal Colwood and Langford before heading back to the Island Hwy. I see more and more new listings and only four old sold signs from april/early May. In one new development 4 houses sprang up for sale and they are only 1-3 yrs old. Victoria is not immune just delusional in their thinking. Besides the rest of the Island is a retirement mecca. The biggest section in the local Parkvsille Qualicum newspaper is the Obituaries so a steady supply of houses in the sales funnell. Victoria used to be a clean safe city for elders…not so much anymore.

As for Steve…he’s been reading Greaterfool for the last 5 yrs at least. It shows on his past twitter posts.

#78 Chaddywack on 06.02.22 at 7:32 pm

All of Trudeau’s tax hikes so far have just targeted the top brackets who all need to “pay a little bit more” (according to him).

Are those days done where only the top bracket feels the pain?

#79 willworkforpickles on 06.02.22 at 7:34 pm

“The millennials are only halfway through their housing journey, and many, many more will end up buying homes. A lot of them are too young still.”
………………………………………………………………………………………………

The boomers were only halfway through their housing journey cohort when the 90’s hit , and RE took a dump for the next dozen years.

#80 crowdedelevatorfartz on 06.02.22 at 7:35 pm

Another excellent financial update from the Garthster.

I was in Victoria today on business.
Very productive day.
Alas, no Faron sightings….

#81 GICs only in RRSPs, TFSAs, RESPs on 06.02.22 at 7:37 pm

My wife and I have been stuck in the 3% to 3.5% 5 year to 7 year GIC universe since 2009. This is the max we could get on my maxed out RRSP, TFSA contributions since 2009. We have been putting away on thousands every quarter as we save on average $34,000 a year without counting our RRSP tax refunds. We never pretended or called ourselves investors. We have not paid any income taxes on all our GICs in our RRSPs, TFSAs current balance of $565,400. GICs are fully taxed as regular income in RRSPs and tax free in TFSAs and this is why it is best to get GICs in only tax deferred, tax free accounts. We have no non-registered GICs or cash account GICs. We just have some cash savings $25,000 giving us some interest not alot which is taxes are little, at most few hundred dollars a year and that is it. Actually we have received $92,000 in total RRSP tax refunds since we started our family, got married in 2009. We are really disciplined savers and reinvest all our RRSP tax refunds and paying down our mortgage, having adequate life term insurance policies. We also started our RESPs a little late, 3 years only now for our 2 kids but have already $16,000 in there included CESG, other benefits.

It is about time we are getting 4%+ now on our GICs. Looks like alot now 4.05% to 4.30% 5 year+ GIC rates for RRSPs, TFSAs, RESPs out there. Our mortgage is only 20% left from the original balance $69,000 from 2009. Our house has now $490,000 in equity which we never paid income taxes on that either. We are both 38 years old now and going at this rate by the time we are 55, equity from our house, RRSP, TFSA GICs will be in the ball park of $2.75 to 3.0 million. We never paid any income taxes on them all. By the time we retire at 55 to 60, we can draw our RRSP GICs gradually and be continue to be debt free. We will be debt free in the next 3 to 4 years max.

#82 HeyyyJulian on 06.02.22 at 7:37 pm

I’ve got a lean in my cup
Vote for my mom
What’s sup?
Adam Vaughan
Punked up
Interest rates
Too late

Chorus:
Vote for NDP
I’m the son of the NDP

The media told everyone
I got an AR15
The Illuminati media
try to vilify me with my AR15

I plead
not guilty
for being honest

Why vote for Ford
when Wynne scandalled the gas plants?

#83 Faron on 06.02.22 at 7:46 pm

#34 Sail Away on 06.02.22 at 3:39 pm

Work is XXkm away for me and YYkm for my wife

TL;DR — don’t give internet randos the ability to triangulate your exact location!

As a white-hat service to you Sail Away, you should know that with the above information and other info you have voluntarily posted in recent weeks it’s now possible to pinpoint exactly where you live.

To be utterly clear, I have absolutely no interest in making any kind of contact with you and haven’t and won’t go through the triangulation exercise. But others can. I would call this a blunder on your part. When I allowed Garth to post a picture of Randall, my partner wasn’t stoked (I should have asked her). Not sure if Sail Away’s partner would be stoked at what you have done. This is not a threat and if you abuse me for informing you here that would simply reinforce your ignorance and naive sense of internet best-practices.

Garth, in fairness to Sailo, it might warrant striking the distances from his earlier comment. Obviously, the chances of this mattering are very small, but they are real.

Be safe people.

#84 DON on 06.02.22 at 7:51 pm

#24 Captain Nanaimo on 06.02.22 at 3:08 pm
And while we wait for May stats to show home prices never come down in Nanaimo, we can’t help but wonder whether all roads lead to a reset. It will be great, perhaps even epic.

**************

There is a reason why the RCMP Drug task force was stationed in Nanaimo in the 90’s and early 2000s.

And then there is this.
https://nanaimonewsnow.com/2022/05/31/nanaimo-men-facing-30-drug-charges-after-extensive-dark-web-cryptocurrency-investigation/

and this

https://nanaimonewsnow.com/2022/05/31/body-recovered-in-waters-off-protection-island-identified/

But I do prefer Nanaimo over most places in the Greater Vancouver Area.

#85 Linda on 06.02.22 at 7:55 pm

I have been working really hard the last 6 years. I am only 23 and have worked for 60 hour weeks at minimum wage. I have managed to save $75,000 and have not been rewarded that much 2% or less with interest on my savings. Now it is good to know I will be soon getting 5% on my savings and will probably lock in for more than 5 years. If I can get 315 or more hours a year of my work equivalent at $15 an hour on my $75,000 savings than it is great.

#86 TurnerNation on 06.02.22 at 7:59 pm

Ah this blog covers life in bankrupt Former First World Country.

Control over feeding? Check.

https://petersweden.substack.com/p/norway-tracking?s=r
“Norway to track citizens food purchases
Big Brother society is creeping ever closer.

What kind of payment data are we talking about here? Well, let’s have a look.
Transaction date.
Transaction type status.
Card service.
Organization number of the company where the card was used.
Name of the company where the card was used.
Name of card user, bank account number.
Amount payed for items.
Total amount payed.

This data will then be combined with receipts from the store and used to figure out exactly what people bought.”


— Life in Kanada. Always ‘State of Emergency’ [sic].

https://sencanada.ca/en/sencaplus/opinion/emergencies-act-use-was-a-clear-overreach-senator-wells/
“OPINION EMERGENCIES ACT USE WAS A CLEAR OVERREACH: SENATOR WELLS

#87 Don Guillermo on 06.02.22 at 8:00 pm

#200 Ponzius Pilatus on 06.02.22 at 12:53 pm
#181 Don Guillermo on 06.02.22 at 10:27 am
#172 Ponzius Pilatus on 06.02.22 at 12:38 am
#166 Don Guillermo on 06.01.22 at 11:49 pm
153 Ponzius Pilatus on 06.01.22 at 9:43 pm
Dolce Vita and Donny G.
The “Odd Fascist Couple”
******
Aw PP, thanks for caring. You’re keeping up with Captain Stereotype.
———————-
I care.
Guilty by association.
Stay away from the Neo-Facists.
You’re better than that.
******
As a non Italian raised in the middle of a large mostly 1st generation Trail BC Italian community most of my friends were Italians and their mothers fed me well. But you’re correct, I am much better than generalizing a nationality. I learned a lot of juicy swear words as well!
——————————
Dolce Vita is not an Italiano.
******
Don’t care if he’s Italian or Martian. You’re missing the point.

#88 froggy1 on 06.02.22 at 8:05 pm

Hi Garth thanks for all the information and knowledge you’ve given us , let’s see if l can get the grit of it in one sentence real estate easily down 70% down by say 2023 spring
that would mark the biggest market crash in Canada’s history and Canada’s biggest greater fools of history

#89 Faron on 06.02.22 at 8:06 pm

#71 Sail Away on 06.02.22 at 7:02 pm

honestly couldn’t care less

Either that’s a lie or your dossier is a lie. So, more lying. Hilarious.

You antagonize me, often deliberately by your own admission, yet are surprised that your antagonism leads to thoughtful rebuttals. Amazing. Be glad my mental health is normal.

Also, a marathoner (if you actually are one?) should know that a short bike ride draws from stores of intramuscular glycogen, not fat.

Don’t come knocking at my door when the nutters knock on yours.

#90 DON on 06.02.22 at 8:07 pm

#84 DON on 06.02.22 at 7:51 pm
#24 Captain Nanaimo on 06.02.22 at 3:08 pm
And while we wait for May stats to show home prices never come down in Nanaimo, we can’t help but wonder whether all roads lead to a reset. It will be great, perhaps even epic.

**************

There is a reason why the RCMP Drug task force was stationed in Nanaimo in the 90’s and early 2000s.

And then there is this.
https://nanaimonewsnow.com/2022/05/31/nanaimo-men-facing-30-drug-charges-after-extensive-dark-web-cryptocurrency-investigation/

and this

https://nanaimonewsnow.com/2022/05/31/body-recovered-in-waters-off-protection-island-identified/

But I do prefer Nanaimo over most places in the Greater Vancouver Area.

*********
Second link didn’t apply to post, just an unfortunate situation

#91 Faron on 06.02.22 at 8:08 pm

#80 crowdedelevatorfartz on 06.02.22 at 7:35 pm
Another excellent financial update from the Garthster.

I was in Victoria today on business.
Very productive day.
Alas, no Faron sightings….

Away on a training. But, I’ll send you a topless pic if you like.

#92 Truth or Consequences on 06.02.22 at 8:10 pm

#84
But I do prefer Nanaimo over most places in the Greater Vancouver Area.

So do the Hells Angels.

#93 Don Guillermo on 06.02.22 at 8:17 pm

#20 Captain Uppa on 06.02.22 at 3:00 pm
Calgary looking very appealing to us who could cash out from OntariOWE.

Big city. No humidity. Sure, some snow, but whatevs.

Now I just need my company to officially approve of working-from-home because it’s a sweet gig I have.

Hope they’re not friends with Elon.
********
Welcome to Calgary Captain. Great city. Young and energetic. Great to be around youth apposed to geriatrics. I guess I’m one of the geriatrics now. Moved here years ago from GTA. Huge improvement in my quality of life. Born and raised in BC but rarely go back. Now retired it’s summer in YYC and winter in the tropics. With the odd tour to Italy ;-).

#94 Shawn on 06.02.22 at 8:24 pm

Who benefits from higher mortgage rates?

#202 opee on 06.02.22 at 2:16 pm

Garth, some benefit more than others when the winds blow. Please explain to readers WHO, or Firms, specifically, benefit directly on the now higher interest pymnts, as you mentioned. Was that the plan? Where there is a loser, usually there is a winner, who won? should taxpayers know?

*****************************
That’s a good question. The answer is the benefit will go partly to lenders (banks) and partly to depositors including GIC investors.

The banks have some deposits that they pay little or nothing on and if they don’t raise those rates then the extra interest income will go to the bank’s profit before tax. (Hey governments then get a share too on higher income taxes).

To a good extend deposit rates will increase due to competition and depositors will benefit. A deposit account at TD Direct broker (TDB8150) has already gone from about 0.05% at the lows to 0.95% today. I don’t think they have yet reflected the latest 0.50% increase but presumably some or all of that will be reflected in a higher rate.

GIC rates are up…benefiting those investors.

#95 Don Guillermo on 06.02.22 at 8:28 pm

69 Blobby on 06.02.22 at 6:43 pm
Good friends of mine bought a house in Calgary in the snow, they move in next week.

I advised them otherwise, but they had a recent child, and that meant they “had” to own property – and property prices only ever go up.

I feel bad for them. Even now they still think it’s a good idea and are putting on a brave face.

It’s quite sad to see it happening in real time to people :(

I could of course be all smug and “told you so”, but that would make me an absolute a-hole, and not much of a friend.

They dont even have that much money. They left Van to get a (lower paid) job there as it was “a place they could afford”.
******
They have lower paying jobs in Calgary than Vancouver? Wow, that’s very unusual. You should feel sorry for them.

#96 Yukon Elvis on 06.02.22 at 8:39 pm

#85 Linda on 06.02.22 at 7:55 pm
I have been working really hard the last 6 years. I am only 23 and have worked for 60 hour weeks at minimum wage. I have managed to save $75,000 and have not been rewarded that much 2% or less with interest on my savings. Now it is good to know I will be soon getting 5% on my savings and will probably lock in for more than 5 years. If I can get 315 or more hours a year of my work equivalent at $15 an hour on my $75,000 savings than it is great.
++++++++++++++
Respect.

#97 Shawn on 06.02.22 at 8:47 pm

God sSave the Queen

#40 Søren Angst on 06.02.22 at 4:00 pm
Forgot.

I have admired Queen Elizabeth II my entire life.

Happy 70th Platinum Jubilee Your Majesty

*****************************

Agreed and a (monkey) pox on anyone who disrespects her this week in particular.

She is the Queen of Canada and our head of state.

God save our gracious Queen,
Long live our noble Queen,
God save the Queen!
Send her victorious,
Happy and glorious,
Long to reign over us,
God save the Queen!

O Lord our God arise,
Scatter our enemies,
And make them fall!
Confound their politics,
Frustrate their knavish tricks,
On Thee our hopes we fix,
God save us all!

Not in this land alone,
But be God’s mercies known,
From shore to shore!
Lord make the nations see,
That men should brothers be,
And form one family,
The wide world o’er.

From every latent foe,
From the assassins blow,
God save the Queen!
O’er her thine arm extend,
For Britain’s sake defend,
Our mother, prince, and friend,
God save the Queen!

Thy choicest gifts in store,
On her be pleased to pour,
Long may she reign!
May she defend our laws,
And ever give us cause,
To sing with heart and voice,
God save the Queen!

#98 froggy on 06.02.22 at 9:05 pm

oh well we’ll drop the stress test and then lend every first time buyer $100,000.00 dollars and let them only put 1% and we the tax payer,s will insure it all and the 100 grand we’ll finance at 2% over 10 years you know free money and the party goes on good luck l say this is when cash is king and in only 12 month’s asset will be at half price and then a long and painful melt it was fun on the way up but terrifying on the way down toooo much leverage at high rates and taxs and inflation don’t you see too much hurt will begin and the PONZI SCHEME IS OVER

#99 Nora Lenderby on 06.02.22 at 9:14 pm

#58 dragonfly58 on 06.02.22 at 5:31 pm
I agree about sailboats requiring engines. Otherwise it’s a pain to move around in marinas etc. Not to mention dangerous around here on the St, Lawrence with all the dams.

You can go engineless in a dinghy (with a paddle for when the wind dies) or, like the famous Chesapeake skipjack oyster draggers, use a pushboat.

#100 the Jaguar on 06.02.22 at 9:23 pm

‘Come hell or high water’. We know all about that in Southern Alberta. Kevin Warsh speaketh:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CwaEhjYQRXE

#101 crowdedelevatorfartz on 06.02.22 at 9:23 pm

Big Doug Ford Re-elected.

#102 OK, Doomer on 06.02.22 at 9:23 pm

I was thinking of offering some financial advice, but you’re doing far better at your age than I did.

Carry on!

#103 Leo Trollstoy on 06.02.22 at 9:25 pm

“Half the harm that is done in this world is due to people who want to feel important. They don’t mean to do harm; but the harm does not interest them. Or they do not see it, or they justify it because they are absorbed in the endless struggle to think well of themselves.” – T.S. Eliot

#104 Leo Trollstoy on 06.02.22 at 9:37 pm

#81 GICs only in RRSPs, TFSAs, RESPs on 06.02.22 at 7:37 pm
My wife and I have been stuck in the 3% to 3.5% 5 year to 7 year GIC universe since 2009

GICs since 2009? Are we joking? In the absolute best year to buy stocks (and real estate for that matter) why are there any GICs in registered growth accounts at all?

Even Warren Buffett wrote a massive op-ed in the NY Times that said “Buy American. I am”
https://www.nytimes.com/2008/10/17/opinion/17buffett.html

The GICs since 2009 likely explain how a $30k+ savings rate results in such low registered account balances

#105 Flop… on 06.02.22 at 9:53 pm

Flop Drops.

This one could be a sign of a rapidly changing market in Vancouver.

It wasn’t that long ago after tracking a few sales of detached properties to see where the bottom rung was, that the number seemed to be 1.5 million.

I showed a unicorn on here, liveable detached for 1.19, but if this Pink Snowball keeps picking up the pace, it’s going start bringing the possibility of owning for those that thought that ship had sailed, perhaps quicker than anticipated.

The details….

4518 Nanaimo St, Vancouver.

Sold for 1.5m

Assessment 1.62

So, yeah, they had to cough up 1.5 still, but the reason this hits the Flop Drops radar is that this house is only 19 years old.

So the house is old enough to start drinking, better get ready for its midlife crisis, because when houses are over 30 years old in Vancouver the developers start ringing the doorbell…

M47BC

https://www.zealty.ca/mls-R2692277/4518-NANAIMO-STREET-Vancouver-BC/

#106 Satori on 06.02.22 at 10:10 pm

#97 Shawn on 06.02.22 at 8:47 pm
God save the Queen
—————-
Sorry Shawn but once Camilla and Charles take over, respect is out the window. Let’s see how long that lasts… Jamaica is only the start….

#107 cuke and tomato picker on 06.02.22 at 10:27 pm

Number 96 YOU ARE THE MAN. Your hard work will pay off in avalanches of abundance you will enjoy
a wonderful life with the work ethic you have. We need more people like you. Keep up the good work Yukon
Elvis.

#108 Pete on 06.02.22 at 10:39 pm

Inflation has already peaked. Central banks will pause interest rate increases this September and will begin cutting again before Christmas. Relax Garth……rates will be heading down again into 2023. The worlds economies are slowing down rather quickly right now despite the MSM lies that it’s heating up. Things are not what they tell you or what they seem to be. As an aside, it will be a good thing when Trump gets back in power in the USA. Biden and crew are a complete clown show disaster. Next up is to get ride of that narcissistic sociopath Trudeau. I still to this day can’t stand listening to or watching him………but that’s just me.

#109 Sail Away on 06.02.22 at 11:05 pm

#106 Satori on 06.02.22 at 10:10 pm
#97 Shawn on 06.02.22 at 8:47 pm
God save the Queen

———

Sorry Shawn but once Camilla and Charles take over, respect is out the window. Let’s see how long that lasts… Jamaica is only the start….

———

Yep. Lots of momentum building toward Commonwealth crumble-edge. Particularly the former slave colonies.

The monarchy has lived its life. It’s bananas in this era that any import whatsoever is given to a purely nepotistic and insular group. Like a weird religion.

But then, we US Americans have never been particularly fond of the fops. Good on Meghan and her dude Henry.

#110 Satori on 06.02.22 at 11:21 pm

#109 Sail Away on 06.02.22 at 11:05 pm
#106 Satori on 06.02.22 at 10:10 pm
#97 Shawn on 06.02.22 at 8:47 pm
God save the Queen

———

Sorry Shawn but once Camilla and Charles take over, respect is out the window. Let’s see how long that lasts… Jamaica is only the start….

———

Yep. Lots of momentum building toward Commonwealth crumble-edge. Particularly the former slave colonies.

The monarchy has lived its life. It’s bananas in this era that any import whatsoever is given to a purely nepotistic and insular group. Like a weird religion.

But then, we US Americans have never been particularly fond of the fops. Good on Meghan and her dude Henry.
———————————-
But of course US Americans think the same… It would literally surprise me if Canadians had the same sense.

Meghan and Harry? Millennials… as a Gen Xer, what they do is totally lost in translation…

#111 THE DANDADA on 06.02.22 at 11:27 pm

Does this sound like the signs of a healthy economy?

Raising rates will continue to punish the 99%ers until the camels back finally snaps.

“Canadians keep adding debt to keep up with inflation: Equifax”

https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/canadians-keep-adding-debt-to-keep-up-with-inflation-equifax-1.1773790

#112 DON on 06.02.22 at 11:29 pm

#92 Truth or Consequences on 06.02.22 at 8:10 pm
#84
But I do prefer Nanaimo over most places in the Greater Vancouver Area.

So do the Hells Angels.

********
Yup they are and I have never had a bad experience with any of the ones I happened to run into or dealt with. For the most part they are behind the scenes. They used to ride up and down the Island displaying their patches but that wasn’t exactly smart. They own businesses now. The lower mainland has gang problems. There are a lot of rough tuff people in Nanaimo that don’t put up with shit in their neighbourhoods.

#113 Ponzius Pilatus on 06.02.22 at 11:40 pm

#109 Sail Away on 06.02.22 at 11:05 pm
#106 Satori on 06.02.22 at 10:10 pm
#97 Shawn on 06.02.22 at 8:47 pm
God save the Queen

———

Sorry Shawn but once Camilla and Charles take over, respect is out the window. Let’s see how long that lasts… Jamaica is only the start….

———

Yep. Lots of momentum building toward Commonwealth crumble-edge. Particularly the former slave colonies.

The monarchy has lived its life. It’s bananas in this era that any import whatsoever is given to a purely nepotistic and insular group. Like a weird religion.

But then, we US Americans have never been particularly fond of the fops. Good on Meghan and her dude Henry.
——————
Talking with forked tongue again, Sailo.
Remember, you swore allegiance to the Queen.

#114 Satori on 06.02.22 at 11:42 pm

#96 Yukon Elvis on 06.02.22 at 8:39 pm
#85 Linda on 06.02.22 at 7:55 pm
I have been working really hard the last 6 years. I am only 23 and have worked for 60 hour weeks at minimum wage. I have managed to save $75,000 and have not been rewarded that much 2% or less with interest on my savings. Now it is good to know I will be soon getting 5% on my savings and will probably lock in for more than 5 years. If I can get 315 or more hours a year of my work equivalent at $15 an hour on my $75,000 savings than it is great.
++++++++++++++
Respect.
———————-
YOU are only 23!! Hats off. Be proud of your savings!!! Keep on, keeping on… I am double your age and also a saver.

Keep it up, and when you hit the mark, ask Garth to help you. I tried to do it myself and realized that I dont know enough about investing, I should have done it years ago… I dont mind paying someone to help me.

What you have saved is amazing, and your knowledge is beyond your years.

If i can say or ‘recycle mu garbage’ as advice and shine it up… i wish i invested earlier… my biggest mistake. Also my mistake is not taking debt at 1-2% to live the dream.

My Ukraine immigrant folks told me to save, that cash or cash was the way to go. … which was a big mistake, because by the time I saved enough cash… my colleges were beyond me in wealth. I managed to pay cash, but wished I got a cheap mortgage.

You are on your way. Enjoy life too… it is very short… save for the dream, but don’t miss the opportunities despite other’s opinions. You are here a short time, what ever you decide is right for you … is right… marinate on opinions… and don’t wait until you are old… have fun, life is a journey.

You got this… enjoy. (And dont become such a saver that you calculate your mileage and keep notes of your expenditures… Life is meant to be enjoyed. So enjoy it.. it is over in a poof)

If you were mine, I would be very very Proud. Keep on, and keep on here you seem to be able to decipher the good and bad…. this is a good place for it. All the best!!! And…. you cannot fail… what is meant to be, will be, so dont worry too much. Blessings. xo

#115 Diamond Dog on 06.03.22 at 12:38 am

The IMF pegged Canadian public debt @ 117% as of March 31st 2021. One would assume that this is Federal and provincial debt combined as both are taxed on the same incomes. Municipal debt is taxed on properties which in theory has the potential to self sustain through rental. All in all, municipal debt is taxed on income, but there is an important distinction meaning bond markets pricing in risk look at the combination of Federal and provincial debt.

Fast forward to last year’s $ 100 billion dollar Federal deficit was it? Add provincial debt and subtract GDP growth and we’ve got around 120% debt to GDP. What does this mean?

The last time Canada faced a currency crisis was in the 90’s under Chretien. Federal debt to GDP was 95%, much higher than it is now but lets be realistic, the provincial pie of debt if I’m not mistaken was in the low 40’s. When we get to 135% or so (notice I didn’t say “if”), another currency crisis is certain. Heck, it could be triggered from high CB rates sooner as fiscal debt service comes to light much more quickly.

So, lets recap. We are at 120% now. If a recession hits, we could easily add 7 to 10% in one year considering Federal government bailouts in housing with no growth in GDP to offset, only recession further compounding our Federal government’s desire to borrow. What does this mean?

Higher taxes and reduced spending. Likely by a lot. This means austerity. Repression. Perhaps 2 or 3 years before we see an economy that is capable of surviving on its own without bloated deficits and money supplies. It means a dramatic economic reset. A cleansing of the deadwood. It means lean times.

Back in the day, Liberal and Conservative had meanings. If one was Liberal, it meant being Liberal with government spending and if one was Conservative, it meant being Conservative with spending. The same was said with taxes. The meanings to the words Lib and Con were economically focused. I think we’re headed there again as economics comes closer to the fore.

But mark these words, this is only the half of it. laws and regulations are the other half of it. Smaller government is not necessarily better government in this context. The consumer has to be protected and businesses have to be regulated or they’ll implode on their own greed.

It’s been easy money. Basically free. It’s been so free that large caps have been able to borrow for free and take the money to buy back shares which has been great for executive stock options and bonus’s, but this money hasn’t been invested in stuff like actually making money organically, because it’s been free!

To drill home a point, U.S. inflation at 8.3% with a Fed rate at .75% means real rates at – 7.5%. CB’s need to address it finally, again, what took them so long. Is there an explanation considering the timing of the mid terms that isn’t political? Is it really this base? Round peg, round hole.

We are in the early innings of this thing. The effects rising rates will have on housing and credit, wealth effects reversing into poverty effects, the increasing drain this will have on jobs and income over time, no matter how steep the losses, we can’t loose sight of what really matters most.

https://www.poetryfoundation.org/poems/46473/if—

#116 Jane24 on 06.03.22 at 2:50 am

Just got back from 3 weeks in Southern Italy. Our little village has done very well with the free German money covid grants. Lots of people renovating everything and new businesses starting up. Matera was packed out with cruise tourists and prices are well up for everything. 5.50 euros for a prosecco in a side walk cafe when our village cafes 45 mins away charge 2 euros!

Anyway the brother’s 2 bed condo in Mississauga has closed 3 weeks after he sold it for $825,000. There are still some Greater Fools out there if you are quick.

#117 willworkforpickles on 06.03.22 at 4:47 am

Keeping up exactly with the lies the idiot masses currently believe is the key to gauging where the markets are at and where they will be going in the near future.
Talk of peak inflation is the current lie the Fed is spoon feeding the masses.
The old lie the Fed has been using and have the masses hooked on is they are fighting inflation with these tiny rate increases . There is a time limit to this fallacy. That being the Fed’s failure to quell inflation as it continues to increase as the year wears on . When the masses come to realize the Fed has been leading them on about inflation all along , a credibility issue will begin to roil the markets and the greater economy where the Fed will abandon the inflation fight altogether and begin reversing monetary policy. This will then have negative consequences for the dollar.
Watch it all unfold step by step and act in accordance to protect your money.

#118 KNOW IT ALL on 06.03.22 at 6:11 am

Jeffrey Gundlach
@TruthGundlach

Headline today: “$5,800,000,000 in student loan debt will be cancelled”.

The debt jubilee has begun!

#119 crowdedelevatorfartz on 06.03.22 at 8:23 am

@#84 Don
“There is a reason why the RCMP Drug task force was stationed in Nanaimo in the 90’s and early 2000s.”

++
LOTS of drug raids on the Gulf Islands back in the 90’s and 2000’s
Also lots of fishing boats ( transporters) work out of the Nanaimo area.
Port town with a small police presence. Cops stand out.

#120 crowdedelevatorfartz on 06.03.22 at 8:25 am

@#91 Faron.
“I’ll send you a topless pic if you like”

+++
I was eating when I read that.
Fartzy almost choked.

#121 Living amongst retards in Ontario on 06.03.22 at 8:36 am

Doug Ford locked the province down for two years, instituted discriminatory vaccine mandates, and even tried to force cops to set up checkpoints and turn Ontario into a police state, and he still won reelection.

Yep , this is the IQ in Ontario in Quebec it’s lower

#122 James on 06.03.22 at 8:44 am

And so the Drug Ford regime continues….

Incredible that Ontario tolerates the bs privatization politics of a drug dealing greater fool.

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/toronto/globe-investigation-the-ford-familys-history-with-drug-dealing/article12153014/

#123 IHCTD9 on 06.03.22 at 9:03 am

#101 crowdedelevatorfartz on 06.02.22 at 9:23 pm

Big Doug Ford Re-elected.
____

Provincial Libs destroyed at the same time.

Federal Conservatives need to set up a strategy meeting with Mr. F. Seems like half the Libs and even some of the NDP’ers I know voted for the guy. He’s doing something right.

We are still broke as all get-out though.

#124 crowdedelevatorfartz on 06.03.22 at 9:37 am

@#121 Mentally Challenged.

I guess the voters looked at the dismal alternatives and voted Doogie back in.
One wonders if the “Trudeau Factor” played a roll.

Seeing all those Liberal seats go spiraling back down in flaming wrecks must make the Woke federal Liberal blood run cold.
Lets see what expensive billion dollar baby cash give away’s Trudeau have up his sleeve next week.

:)

#125 crowdedelevatorfartz on 06.03.22 at 9:47 am

When billionaires start pondering the future of the economy…..

https://www.reuters.com/technology/exclusive-musk-says-tesla-needs-cut-staff-by-10-pauses-all-hiring-2022-06-03/

#126 Quintilian on 06.03.22 at 9:53 am

#123 IHCTD9 on 06.03.22 at 9:03 am

“Federal Conservatives need to set up a strategy meeting with Mr. F. Seems like half the Libs and even some of the NDP’ers I know voted for the guy. He’s doing something right.”

Yeah he did something right, he made a hard left turn.

#127 IHCTD9 on 06.03.22 at 10:19 am

#126 Quintilian on 06.03.22 at 9:53 am
#123 IHCTD9 on 06.03.22 at 9:03 am

“Federal Conservatives need to set up a strategy meeting with Mr. F. Seems like half the Libs and even some of the NDP’ers I know voted for the guy. He’s doing something right.”

Yeah he did something right, he made a hard left turn.
__________

But not left of all the parties he crushed.

He **destroyed** the Liberals. Douggie even Took Del Duca’s riding! This election reminded me of the Chara/McCabe fight where McCabe is just getting rag-dolled and spent all his time trying to keep his balance while getting punched in the face.

No one in Ontario wanted a hard left looney bin government – that much is obvious. We still remember the Wynne horror show and 500.00 hydro bills.

#128 IHCTD9 on 06.03.22 at 10:35 am

#122 James on 06.03.22 at 8:44 am
And so the Drug Ford regime continues….

Incredible that Ontario tolerates the bs privatization politics of a drug dealing greater fool.
____

Dude. Canadians love drugs. That’s how Trudeau got elected.

#129 millmech on 06.03.22 at 10:43 am

Rates are going to keep rising faster than most expect and the BoC has confirmed it, hold on it is going to be a wild ride.
https://www.msn.com/en-ca/money/topstories/bank-of-canada-says-rates-may-have-to-double-to-fend-off-galloping-inflation/ar-AAY0wi0?ocid=msedgntp&cvid=c97bd03d5475439f9d9cf85993b342a3

#130 Ponzius Pilatus on 06.03.22 at 10:48 am

#125 crowdedelevatorfartz on 06.03.22 at 9:47 am
When billionaires start pondering the future of the economy…..

https://www.reuters.com/technology/exclusive-musk-says-tesla-needs-cut-staff-by-10-pauses-all-hiring-2022-06-03/
———————-
Me thinks Musk is pondering more about the future of Tesla than about the economy.
And also, he’s got a new girlfriend to impress.

#131 crowdedelevatorfartz on 06.03.22 at 10:56 am

Wow.
Terry Glavin nailed it.

https://nationalpost.com/opinion/the-year-of-the-graves-how-the-worlds-media-got-it-wrong-on-residential-school-graves

#132 crowdedelevatorfartz on 06.03.22 at 11:00 am

@#130 Ponzies Paternity predictions
“And also, he’s got a new girlfriend to impress.”
+++
Elon has been married and divorced …4? 5? times.
Has oodles of kids running about.
I dont think the richest man in the world cares one whit about impressing a girlfriend.
I’m just surprised his ex girlfriend Amber Heard hasn’t dragged him into court for $100 million dollars…yet.

#133 Quitilian on 06.03.22 at 11:16 am

#127 IHCTD9 on 06.03.22 at 10:19 a
“But not left of all the parties he crushed.”

Be honest, how different is the new Ford from a Liberal?

#134 Sail Away on 06.03.22 at 11:46 am

#83 Faron on 06.02.22 at 7:46 pm
#34 Sail Away on 06.02.22 at 3:39 pm

Work is 5 km away for me and 1.3 km for my wife.

——–

As a white-hat service to you Sail Away, you should know that with the above information and other info you have voluntarily posted in recent weeks it’s now possible to pinpoint exactly where you live.

——–

Oh my, so helpful.

That roadmap is totally not something a stalker would feel necessary to splash across the interwebz.

#135 45north on 06.03.22 at 12:08 pm

Ballingsford Garth, what does this mean exactly?
“The Government of Canada will limit its share in the depreciation of a home at the time of repayment. This is up to a maximum loss of 8% per annum (not compounded) on the Incentive amount from the date of advance to the time of repayment.”
Does it mean, if the govt forked over $100,000 (10%) on a million dollar home, and the home later sells for $800,000, then the govt can only lose up to $80,000? Homeowner has to come up with the other $20,000 to pay back the govt?

sounds about right but assuming a 20% down payment, it’s gone. The homeowner would have to write a cheque to sell but he couldn’t so he would just stay put. So it would be one more house that couldn’t be sold.

I worked in the civil service. How would this program be run? Pending sales would have to apply for permission to sell? Some civil servant gets these requests and then turns them down? After a couple of years, the Department bundles up its contracts and sells them?

#136 45north on 06.03.22 at 12:09 pm

Garth I implied no such thing, but gave numbers of current and expected interest payments which came from the federal Department of Finance. Bonds are continuously rolling out of maturities so there is, indeed, an immediate creep in financing changes. However, as the post clearly stated (read harder, Faron) future interest charges could be withering as the bank rate doubles, triples and quadruples – as is currently occurring.

said the former Minister of Revenue

#137 Satori on 06.03.22 at 12:25 pm

#132 crowdedelevatorfartz on 06.03.22 at 11:00 am
@#130 Ponzies Paternity predictions
“And also, he’s got a new girlfriend to impress.”
+++
Elon has been married and divorced …4? 5? times.
Has oodles of kids running about.
I dont think the richest man in the world cares one whit about impressing a girlfriend.
I’m just surprised his ex girlfriend Amber Heard hasn’t dragged him into court for $100 million dollars…yet.
—————————————–
Just was about to post the same…
Amber Heard? Elon too? What special-fascinating quality does she have, don’t at all get why she has such a A-list of BFs?

#138 Phylis on 06.03.22 at 4:20 pm

#132 crowdedelevatorfartz on 06.03.22 at 11:00 am
@#130 Ponzies Paternity predictions
“And also, he’s got a new girlfriend to impress.”
+++
Elon has been married and divorced …4? 5? times.
Has oodles of kids running about.
I dont think the richest man in the world cares one whit about impressing a girlfriend.
I’m just surprised his ex girlfriend Amber Heard hasn’t dragged him into court for $100 million dollars…yet.
Xxxxx
Well she should at least try to pay her bills.