Sell?

Yesterday we told you Canadians yanked $5 billion out of funds in April as markets declined. They sold into a storm. Never a good idea.

Last week, after almost two months of red arrows, markets reversed. By Friday US equities had surged the better part of 7%. There was a spirited 575-point rally on the Dow going into the American Memorial Day long weekend.

There’s more.

Bond yields have fallen and bond prices rallied. The people who bought in when 10-year Treasuries were 3.2% look like heroes. Cheaper yields tell us Mr. Market thinks (maybe) the whole rates-inflation thingy is overdone. We’re not gonna die, after all.

And look at this: on Wednesday 83% of market breadth in NY was up. The next day, 87%. On Friday, 87% again. This is a rare thing. The S&P 500 broke an important barrier. The tech-heavy Nasdaq clawed its way back, despite weird Elon. Meanwhile in Toronto, maple assets are down just 5% from their all-time high, and the TSX has rallied a thousand points since the recent low in mid-May.

In short, those who sold may have turned paper losses into real ones for… absolutely no reason.

Of course, people worry more than they feel greedy. Most folks also lack confidence. They suffer from recency bias, are devoid of historical context and, most heinous of all, do not read this blog. No wonder we’re surrounded by flounderers.

But wait. What if the wusses are right? Is this a false rally? A trap before the cliff arrives?

Equity researcher Cam Hui’s latest report says this:

Our base-case scenario is that this is a bear market rally and the March lows are not the lows of the bear cycle. Current forward P/E valuations are implying a soft landing. Should a recession develop, stock prices should weaken to a bottom no later than Q3 2022, which is six months before the onset of the recession.

The alternative scenario is the U.S. economy achieves a soft landing and sidesteps a recession next year. If the market doesn’t weaken to a new low by early Q4 2022, the bottom is in for this cycle. We assign a 60–70% probability to the bear market rally scenario and a 30–40% chance of a soft landing.

The question for thee and me, however, is whether all of this volatility, central bank action and consumer price eruption should change how we invest.

Here’s another view from the econs at BMO: “The Canadian banks delivered resilient earnings results and a round of dividend increases across most of the group as well. While a housing slowdown has just started and will play out over the remainder of the year, investors were overall happy with the results. The U.S. data flow was mixed… generally pointing to cooler growth and maybe, just maybe, peaking inflation.”

The bank seems to be betting on no recession. The American economy will grow 2.5% in 2022, it says. Personal spending continues to rocket. Core inflation numbers have cooled. And central banks will deliver big rate hikes this week (Canada), in 16 days (US) and again in July and early autumn. If inflation data grows more tame, or the Ukraine war heads for a resolution (of any kind) you will wish you’d sold nothing in May.

Remember this: corrections are normal. Recessions need not be scary. Financial assets usually bottom early, then rebound on anticipation. More than 80% of the time markets and portfolios go up. Timing things is futile and usually a recipe for loss. If you’ve invested for a distant goal (like retirement or your baby’s university tuition), ignore the noise.

The best-case scenario for the markets?

Two or three more rate hikes. The chartered bank price rises to 4.2%. Inflation subsides. Consumer spending and post-pandemic reopening continue, plus an abrogation of the European. Your portfolio is happy.

Would rates then fall?

Nope. The only catalyst for a reversal in CB policy would be a meaningful recession. Anticipation of that is fading. Central bankers will be very reluctant to cut, since it’s taken 14 years to get rates back into a neutral zone.

This means the greatest price downside is not to ETFs or stocks, but to properties. Mortgages that were 2% in early 2022 will be 5% for years to come. Values must decline to keep markets alive, since half of all transactions have historically been to newbie buyers. Lower prices and higher loan rates go hand-in-hand. There is no alternative.

Conclusion: yes, it’s a good time to sell something. No, not that.

About the picture: “Hi Garth. Thought I would send over a photo in case you’re inclined to use it on your blog,” writes Andrew. “This is George, our almost 7-year-old Westie, enjoying a sunset on the beach in Vancouver. He’s a rambunctious little guy, full of personality, mischief and endless love. He is everything we hoped for and more in a pet. Even though finding a rental is now immeasurably more difficult with a dog, it’s all been worth it. Who knows, maybe next year we might be inclined to buy a place if the real estate market continues its trajectory. “

112 comments ↓

#1 dave on 05.30.22 at 2:08 pm

Condo pre-sales in Metro Vancouver and Kelowna have some to a dead stop. Zero new sales.

If the interest rates go up then blood bath in the streets.
If the interest rates stay the same….Sales will be red hot again.

If Garth you are correct on a 0.5% rate hike – what level of correction can we see in Vancouver?

#2 TurnerNation on 05.30.22 at 2:17 pm

Ontario Provincial Election upcoming? Make your vote count. I’m penciling in Smoking Man’s name.
Premier Emeritus posthumously

——
So it begins. Townhouse nearby downtown area, Toronto.
HOT Spring market y’all! Get in there.

2022-05-25
$1,149,000
For Sale

2022-05-05
$1,199,000
Terminated

2022-04-10
$1,249,000
Terminated


— Same in USA as Kanada. The control over Travel/Movement. A global thing if you have not figured out.

.CDC Tracked Millions of Phones to See If Americans Followed COVID Lockdown Orders(vice.com)
Newly released documents showed the CDC planned to use phone location data to monitor schools and churches, and wanted to use the data for many non-COVID-19 purposes, too

https://brownstone.org/articles/the-who-treaty-is-tied-to-a-global-digital-passport-and-id-system/
“The WHO Treaty Is Tied to a Global Digital Passport and ID System”

#3 Sail Away on 05.30.22 at 2:19 pm

Crazy sellers. Never sell at a low. Buy the way down. And up.

The best part of a correction is when it reverses and all the buys made on the way down blip to black then rocket to space like a SpaceX Falcon. This happens… always. At least in my years of investing.

Re-initiated our Heloc borrow to invest Friday in almost the same portfolio as last year:

20% XIC
10% XAW
30% VUS
10% VRE
5% VSB
15% CPD
10% RSG

Weighted avg div 2.8%.

#4 A01 on 05.30.22 at 2:26 pm

Those who used their house and HELOC as an ATM are in for a rude awaking. The prices for real estate especially in the burbs/bunnypatch, have a long way to drop. For those with cash on hand, stand by, great buying opportunity in the next 24 months.

#5 Søren Angst on 05.30.22 at 2:55 pm

#3 Sail Away

Weighted avg div 2.8%

——————

wuss.

#6 Money for nothing on 05.30.22 at 2:56 pm

#4 A01 on 05.30.22 at 2:26 pm

Those who used their house and HELOC as an ATM are in for a rude awaking. The prices for real estate especially in the burbs/bunnypatch, have a long way to drop. For those with cash on hand, stand by, great buying opportunity in the next 24 months.

__________

Once again … silly, myopic, generic, Garthian statements.
For those that used their HELOC for good and not evil, they continue to be rewarded splendiferously.

I’d put on a masterclass for you but it seems you’ve already made your mind up to your own detriment. A lifetime of income from my foray into HELOCs has proven this out.

BTW … with a HELOC, I always have cash on hand … without having to have cash on hand. What don’t you get about that?

“Money for nothing and your divies for free”!

#7 crowdedelevatorfartz on 05.30.22 at 2:56 pm

@#1 dave
“Condo pre-sales in Metro Vancouver and Kelowna have some to a dead stop. Zero new sales.”

+++

The early 80’s were the same way.
Go go go in the construction industry……then ….overnight……crickets….for several years.

It’ll be like watching an Indy car wreck.
Morbidly fascinating.

#8 dan_dare on 05.30.22 at 2:58 pm

Speaking of asking coworkers what to do yesterday, I was talking to my boss about interest rates and he seems to feel the Government won’t raise rates much if housing looks to be severely impacted….

I pointed out that we basically must follow what the states does and he said they would be willing to let the CAD$ tank….

Sometimes I wonder…..

#9 John on 05.30.22 at 2:59 pm

“If Garth you are correct on a 0.5% rate hike – what level of correction can we see in Vancouver?”

Very little, as Vancouver is a place for foreigners to park their money.

#10 Richard L on 05.30.22 at 2:59 pm

I am skeptical of the Canadian banks ability to turn out high profits when the mortgage defaults start. They have been lending like drunken sailors for a very long time. I know they have to hedge for loan losses but I don’t think it is enough.

On the other hand Canadians will eat beans rather than give up their ‘forever home’.

We shall see.

Canadians do not default. – Garth

#11 Blogger lager on 05.30.22 at 3:01 pm

Word on the street is that Garth is considering to bring this anachronistic blog into the 21st century. You know, with all the bells and whistles that make a modern blog has to offer to make it , well – modern.

Let me know where to send the cases of beer so that we may celebrate this monumental change.

#12 ElGatoNeroYVR on 05.30.22 at 3:03 pm

Are you seriouly trying to tell us that ” Sell in May and go away” is just another meme with no basis in reality ?
People built whole investment strategies around that and RE as a retirement savings.
What has this world come to ?

#13 mj on 05.30.22 at 3:07 pm

Central banks are supposed to be independent. Biden is meeting Powell this week. Something is going on

#14 Quintilian on 05.30.22 at 3:17 pm

This Risky Trend in Pre-Construction Purchases is Raising Red Flags
https://www.movesmartly.com/articles/this-risky-trend-in-pre-construction-purchases-is-raising-red-flags

He adds: “I was told by the head of fraud at a major bank that, when asked to confirm a preapproval, the majority are fake.”

Tais Davis is a Toronto real estate lawyer. She told me: “I agree with Mark (Morris) that it’s a dangerous speculators’ market but it will ultimately burn anyone who doesn’t have enough capital or credit to close.”

Not much I can add to this except:

Tick Tock , Tick Tock

#15 Sail Away on 05.30.22 at 3:18 pm

#5 Søren Angst on 05.30.22 at 2:55 pm
#3 Sail Away

Weighted avg div 2.8%

——–

wuss.

——–

Haha. Oh, don’t worry: I’m tracking your ETNs and enormous dividend payers… but always track for at least a year before taking a position…

We’ll see. Time will tell.

#16 Honest Realtor on 05.30.22 at 3:18 pm

Conclusion: yes, it’s a good time to sell something.

——–

Anyone who purchases a home now will be very pleased with the returns by 2035.

#17 Søren Angst on 05.30.22 at 3:30 pm

Posted about it before but if you believe in oil and Maple a good bet so far for me has been:

NXF.TO
CI Energy Giants Covered Call ETF

Oil companies from around the World and Canada.

YTD on stock price = 37.15%
Div Yield paid Qtrly = 8.43%
YTD total return = 44.8%
1 yr total return = 64.26%
Expense ratio = 0.72%

Considered a value stock. Liquid enough. As diversified as you can get in terms of oil.

I have another but it is higher risk.

FWIW

———————-

Again, thanks Garth for all the advice.

Still down USD $10 on TWTR (never, ever again will I single stock pick) but this year incl. my last dividend I’m ELATED for amateur me and my Threadbare Portfolio:

YTD Time-Weighted Return = +16.1%

#18 ElGatoNeroYVR on 05.30.22 at 3:32 pm

#92 Satori on 05.30.22 at 2:25 pm
#83 Brent on 05.30.22 at 11:05 am
—————————
I saw that, guess it’s just location. I could believe how cheap it is to live in Calgary!! …. and yet I know 2 different couples that moved to Calgary, got great places, but then moved back to BC in 2 years. Must be a location thing, the snow maybe or wind. Don’t understand it, it’s just a province away and in here all the complainers say everything is unaffordable in Canada … guess they never saw Alberta
=========
I have traveled extensively to Alberta for my work during the past decade and have spent up to a week at at time there in various seasons.
Calgary ( though much prefferable to Edmonton).I would only buy there if planning to be a snow bird ,or needing a Canadian base in retirmement. They do have Internet there so fortunately you can only go out for grocery shoppings and use some nice 65 inch TV’s instead of windows to obscure the view outside; besides the 3 months of summer in between snowfalls are OK most of the time.Albertans are good people so no concerns there.
Cheap for a reason…location ,location ,location.
One doesn’t realize it until they have to spend time there.

#19 Sail Away on 05.30.22 at 3:33 pm

#11 Blogger lager on 05.30.22 at 3:01 pm

Word on the street is that Garth is considering to bring this anachronistic blog into the 21st century. You know, with all the bells and whistles that make a modern blog has to offer to make it , well – modern.

Let me know where to send the cases of beer so that we may celebrate this monumental change.

——-

To honour tradition, please deliver kegs with horse and carriage to the ‘old school’. Fax the expected arrival time.

#20 Philco better known as dumbo. on 05.30.22 at 3:37 pm

#10 Richard L on 05.30.22 at 2:59 pm
—————————————–
Your dreaming bro…not happening.
You must be clueless to the bigger pic and don’t own any RE…Talk to someone that does before you shout out your cluelessness or wishes.
Go study just how the US of A tumbled….
If you could fog a mirror you could get a mortgage. Appraiser’s wrote up appraisals to cover the down. THATS how you blow up…We are far from it.
People here grow up or shut up cause most know jack Sh$t.
You know how I know? $500,000 rent coming in a year. I manage everything and know where every dime goes

#21 TheDood on 05.30.22 at 3:44 pm

#9 John on 05.30.22 at 2:59 pm
“If Garth you are correct on a 0.5% rate hike – what level of correction can we see in Vancouver?”

Very little, as Vancouver is a place for foreigners to park their money.
________________________

The whole ‘foreigner’ narrative was proven incorrect. More than 95% of RE transactions in BC are between locals buying/selling to one another. As the cost of money goes up, everyone can borrow less, this means houses for sale are going to take a whole lot longer to sell, unless the expectations/prices come down.

#22 Søren Angst on 05.30.22 at 3:49 pm

#15 Sail Away

You’re being safe with you ETF picks. Wish I had your HELOC money.

In Threadbare Land (me) and speaking of long term div yields there cupcake, here you go:

May div yield annualized = 33.1%
Past 12 month avg. div yield annualized = 21.6%

My prior Comment on YTD return EXCLUDES dividends (if it weren’t for TWTR it would have been a lot higher). That was just on stock price appreciation.

Still, it’s a Threadbare Portfolio.

yeah ⛽
yeah 🍁

#23 crowdedelevatorfartz on 05.30.22 at 3:55 pm

@#14 Questions Questions

If even half of that article on Flippers and specc’ers is true.
Things could get real ugly.

I’ll sit on the sidelines with some equity….ready…. to ……. pick at the bones.
:)

#24 Linda on 05.30.22 at 4:02 pm

‘George’ looks like a real sweetie:)

So it sounds like some folks are betting on a recession to occur sometime next year. If it does it sounds as if those who monitor such things expect it to be of short duration. Might be useful to know from a job perspective – make the $ while the going is good but plan for a possible downturn which might impact employment – but given the number of jobs currently on offer seems to me it would have to be one whopper of a recession before job losses would become an issue. Part of the ongoing supply chain disruptions is the fact employers can’t find the people they need to produce the products/provide the services to meet demand.

#25 ElGatoNeroYVR on 05.30.22 at 4:19 pm

#21 TheDood on 05.30.22 at 3:44 pm
#9 John on 05.30.22 at 2:59 pm
“If Garth you are correct on a 0.5% rate hike – what level of correction can we see in Vancouver?”

Very little, as Vancouver is a place for foreigners to park their money.
________________________

The whole ‘foreigner’ narrative was proven incorrect. More than 95% of RE transactions in BC are between locals buying/selling to one another. As the cost of money goes up, everyone can borrow less, this means houses for sale are going to take a whole lot longer to sell, unless the expectations/prices come down.
========
Aaah, the fallacy of numbers.
Reality on the ground though is a bit different as to those so called “local owners” . Funny for how much money the land “back home” sells for and a family who works custodial type of jobs ,students and stay at home single people can afford multi million dollars properties or 700K+ condos (that sit empty) .
There is a reason why South China Morning Post called it “The Vancouver model.”
Those of us who live(d) in the affected neigbourhoods know it to be true as we see it every single day.
Even if the majority of sales is between locals the outside influences plus undeground markets amount easy to 25% of overall sales ,which just kicks in the domino effect .
There is not a single specific ethnicity that causes this , money flow is ethnicity and gender neutral and they are all fairly represented in the market ; yes ,certain areas are a focus for certain ethnical groups but overall it averages out at GVA level.

#26 Steven on 05.30.22 at 4:21 pm

Powell got invited to the White House today by Biden.

Gee, wonder what that will be about?

Last time he lowered rates as per his Boss Donald.

It can’t happen again, could it,?????? Never.

Same bullshit as always. Let’s see if we get even 2 more hikes and for all the cheerleaders who were calling for “many”, the joke and total lack of financial respect in on YOU.

#27 earthboundmisfit on 05.30.22 at 4:22 pm

Off topic, but should be required reading for all thinking Canadians, regardless of political leanings.

https://policyoptions.irpp.org/magazines/may-2022/tellier-mistrust-destroying-public-service/

#28 Søren Angst on 05.30.22 at 4:28 pm

#23 crowdedelevatorfartz

My kind of evil. Good on you. Creative Destruction. 😉

——————

For other Cheapo Threadbare Retirees like me looking for low cost stocks that throw off dividends like crazy I like the Finviz stock screener for finding them. This is my preset (Div Yield > 10%, Price If anyone knows of something like Finviz for Cdn stocks please Comment with a link.

Beats my current method of watching Cdn Stock YouTube Bloggers. Most are annoying and do not make very good Retiree stock recommendations. They are primarily, since they are young, after stock price appreciation.

#29 Mr. Subtlety on 05.30.22 at 4:29 pm

Property values in Boise, Idaho are down 41%.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10862005/amp/Sellers-slashing-prices-levels-not-seen-pandemic-market-rapidly-cools.html

Sail Away will have a conniption. All his prime real estate is under pressure. What next? Bugtustle, Saskatchewan? Loserville, N.S?

#30 Mr Fox on 05.30.22 at 4:33 pm

I did a not-so-smart thing and last week sold part of my balanced portfolio… Specifically the growth stocks ETF.
After seeing rally for the rest of the week, I understood the following:
1. I am weaker than initially thought, and this facepalm will hurt for a while.
2. Don’t trust the advisors, they don’t know the future.
3. Why getting out if I didn’t need the money now, or in a month, or even this year?
4. Looking at the portfolio every day was affecting my life, and that wasn’t worth it.
5. Investing X amount of money every Y amount of days/weeks/months, is the best scenario.
6. Stay invested. Pet the dog/cat/raccoon.. whatever pet you have and ignore movements in your balanced portfolio. (Yes, raccoon. Some people in Europe (eastern Europe mostly) have raccoons for pets)

Was it Napoleon Bonaparte who said “A genius is the man who can do the average thing when everyone else around him is losing his mind.”

And… yes Garth, yes, I know. But it sticks better when you screw up and realize this.

#31 Crowded house on 05.30.22 at 4:37 pm

#7 crowdedelevatorfartz on 05.30.22 at 2:56 pm
@#1 dave
“Condo pre-sales in Metro Vancouver and Kelowna have some to a dead stop. Zero new sales.”

+++

The early 80’s were the same way.
Go go go in the construction industry……then ….overnight……crickets….for several years.

It’ll be like watching an Indy car wreck.
Morbidly fascinating.

_____________

Condo pre-sales. Aren’t those the things that buyers vastly overpay for, that don’t even exist when they are purchased, and that are NEVER ready when they tell you they will be ready?

Sorry, remind me why I would have bought one of these.

#32 Diamond Dog on 05.30.22 at 4:42 pm

Ok, I’ve got to disagree what you’ve said here Garth, just because (chuckles). I mean, personally, I like what you do. Without optimism, without the lure of opportunity, without some risk, there is no prosperity. This world enjoys the luxuries of oh, say, electricity, the internet, modern transportation etc. precisely because of ingenuity and a certain level of explorative risk. None of this came because of money on the sidelines.

That being said, there are nuances. Fine details that shouldn’t go unnoticed, like the 7 previous sell off weeks before last week’s greener or looks like this week and parts of next. Facts are, inflation is in the 8’s. Do we really believe it’s going down with oil trading @ $117 bucks? Has anyone noticed the trend lately?

https://www.cnbc.com/quotes/@CL.1

Are we going to ignore PPI leading indicators of CPI inflation at 11%? Mr. market can believe whatever it wants: “Inflation has crested. The Fed won’t raise rates beyond the summer. It’s back to the roaring 20’s, look at everything on sale.” And of course, new investment is what greases the wheel. But what is Mr. market basing this on exactly?

I hate to break it to readers, but Powell has the deciding vote in the Federal reserve. He’s not Biden’s guy. If folks thought he was, they completely misread the gridlock in Washington. They’ve also misread the influences Washington has on the Federal reserve.

At this point, Republican/Democrat appointees are split 3 to 3 with Powell having the deciding vote as chair. We wonder why there’s a delay to raise rates, for all the reasons we might hear or think, the political reason is the one that stands out the most. Why has there been such a delay by the Fed to act on rising inflation these last 9 months or more? Is there any more logical reason to it other than this?

Republicans want to raise the Fed rate to induce a recession and make the Dems look bad during mid terms coming up in November. It’s the most logical reason of them all for the Fed to delay acting sooner raising rates. Dems want to raise rates because the Federal reserve should have raised rates 9 months ago (if they are smart). Any time for the health of the system is a good time to raise rates or high inflation continues to romp. So, barring something serious breaking in the credit side, expect the Fed to raise rates past neutral and induce a recession.

We are about to witness an effort by the Fed to create a controlled demolition of the markets. The timing is political. A controlled demolition may not succeed, it remains to be seen. But, they will try regardless and raise rates past neutral just in time for the midterms. None of us should be naive in terms of how this influences voters.

The governmental system in the U.S. in a perfect world, is a democracy by way of a Republic. There are 7 governors in the Federal reserve, all appointed by presidents and confirmed through a 100 vote process in the Senate. Once the confirmation process of a democratically appointed governor is complete, the governors are supposed to be allowed to go about their business without interference from Washington…. in a perfect world.

The world unfortunately, is not perfect. In partisan minds, appointees are expected to toe the partisan line. Government appointees are expected to follow the will of those who put them there. If the majority of appointees themselves have a partisan mindset, we have a politicized institution(s) on our hands. As we examine history, what we will note is that government appointments over the decades by enlarge, are representative of the administrations that put these individuals in seats of power.

Take for example, the U.S. supreme court. Does anyone think Clarence Thomas isn’t partisan or vote according to the partisan lines of those who put him in that position? Look at his record. His life. His wife. If there is a majority of appointments that think just like him, it’s a politicized institution.

Can the Federal reserve be politicized, sure it can, just like any other government institution. Trump appointed the 3 Republican governors who sit in the Federal reserve and Trump still controls the Republican party. It’s not hard to do the math and it’s not a perfect world.

So, we can believe the pipe dream of inflation waning if we want. It greases the wheel, right? There’s lots of cash on the sidelines waiting to find a home that offers future prosperity and all that. Just take note, the stimulus is gone in favor of reversing course. the Fed defines Neutral as somewhere around 2.5%. Take note of what this Republican Fed reserve governor is saying:

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/05/30/fed-governor-christopher-waller-says-hes-prepared-to-take-rates-past-neutral-to-fight-inflation.html

Take note of how quickly they can get there (September, before concrete data even suggests something breaks on the credit side). Take note of how the markets will respond to rising rates in tech as Tech giants and large caps in general go from CAPE to CAPP. Take note to what a further 2% pop by the Fed will do to the prime rate and mortgages across North America. Take note to what happens when the wealth effect from housing reverses course and how this “will effect” stocks and bonds regardless of the noise.

Above all… take note of what Dr. Milton Friedman said concerning inflation. If we think for one moment that inflation will disappear any time soon, it’s because we haven’t watched the video (take particular note of the timelines he offers @ the 40 minute mark):

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=B_nGEj8wIP0

#33 Faron on 05.30.22 at 4:48 pm

#29 Mr. Subtlety on 05.30.22 at 4:29 pm

Loserville, N.S?

On Vancouver Island, some people call Nanaimo “Loserville, B.C.”

#34 Neo on 05.30.22 at 4:48 pm

Yet More Government Corruption in Canada


Last week, the federal Cabinet rejected appeals that would have lowered internet prices for millions of Canadians. TekSavvy and other competitors had asked Cabinet to enforce the lower wholesale rates set by the CRTC in 2019, which the CRTC later controversially reversed.

Cabinet’s decision endorses higher prices and misconduct by the head of the CRTC, amounting to a big loss for consumers and competition in general.

Instead of immediately lowering prices by overturning a bad CRTC decision, Cabinet has promised to improve the CRTC with a proposed new policy direction. Yet it is hard to hold out hope that the CRTC will do better in the future when there is no accountability for its anti-consumer activity today.

In particular, Cabinet ignored photographic evidence of misconduct by CRTC Chair Ian Scott. Mr. Scott was photographed in a private “one on one” meeting with Mirko Bibic, the chief executive of Bell, at an Ottawa bar just one week after Bell filed an appeal to the CRTC concerning wholesale internet rates. The CRTC then arbitrarily reversed its own 2019 rate decision, resulting in higher prices for millions of Canadians throughout the COVID-19 pandemic.

We argued that Mr. Scott is clearly offside the standards required CRTC appointees, as confirmed by Cabinet’s termination of one CRTC Commissioner for far less in 2017. Mr. Scott is also currently under investigation by the Conflicts of Interest and Ethics Commissioner. None of this apparently bothered the Cabinet enough to do the right thing for Canadian internet users.

Despite Canada’s cost of living crisis, any potential solution on telecom prices now appears to be many months, if not years, away. In the meantime, Canadians will continue to pay some of the highest prices in the world.

We want to thank the hundreds of thousands of Canadians who voiced their support in our fight against Big Telecom. If you want to contact your MP about Cabinet’s decision, you can still take action by clicking the button below.

#35 Philco on 05.30.22 at 4:48 pm

If you want to lobby for something as I said….
Mandatory home inspection before the deal closes.
People that don’t know anything should be covered cause the RE agent pretends to care….

#36 Banker's note on 05.30.22 at 5:02 pm

10 Richard L on 05.30.22 at 2:59 pm
I am skeptical of the Canadian banks ability to turn out high profits when the mortgage defaults start. They have been lending like drunken sailors for a very long time. I know they have to hedge for loan losses but I don’t think it is enough.

On the other hand Canadians will eat beans rather than give up their ‘forever home’.

We shall see.

Canadians do not default. – Garth

————

Don’t feel sorry for us.
Not sure why there will be an issue.

First, fully 1/3 are insured with CHMC … so YOU will pick up the loss, if any, NOT the bank.

Second, the remaining mortgage owners have significantly more equity in the house (20%+), so will do everything in their power to NOT forfeit. Many owners will have the means to pay more if need be. Some will be on the family plan.

Third, payments don’t necessarily go up but only the amount going towards interest. Banks can be flexible when it is in their INTEREST. Only when the full payment exceeds the interest does the panic button get hit.

Finally, banks will write half as many new deals, but the ones that are renewing will be at least twice as lucrative due to the spread.

Don’t miss the party!

#37 Russ on 05.30.22 at 5:03 pm

Faron on 05.30.22 at 4:48 pm

#29 Mr. Subtlety on 05.30.22 at 4:29 pm

Loserville, N.S?

On Vancouver Island, some people call Nanaimo “Loserville, B.C.”
================

And it rains all the time there too. And they have the worst bike lanes.

Don’t forget to tell your friend and all the relatives.

Cheers, R

#38 Scott in Gibsons on 05.30.22 at 5:08 pm

I think we’re in bear market territory until energy prices come down substantially.

#39 Heave To on 05.30.22 at 5:13 pm

So me and the squeeze decided to move in together last summer. Found a nice main floor 2 bed 40’s bungalow in East Van between Naniamo and Renfrew for 2k / month, 1 yr lease. Landlord lives next door in an almost identical 40’s bungalow. His elderly father lived in the legal basement suite below us. Unfortunately his father passed away over the holidays and then landlord told us he’s going to sell and move to the valley.

Put his house up for sale in Feb 2022 and it sold in 4 days for 1.9 mil to a developer who will hold until he can tear down and put up one of those 6 unit builds on one lot that City Hall is about to allow. Anyway landlord spends a month finding a place in the valley to buy and then puts our rental up for sale. Asking 1.85. That was late March. Developer made him an offer but lowballed saying interest rates going up, markets changed. Landlord says no way, this house is in better shape than the one he just sold so it needs to be the same price.

Weeks go by. Apparently the only offers landlord was getting was from developers and they were all lowballing. Eventually landlord starts dropping the asking price. Went down to 1.7 mil but no takers.

Realtor says 0 sfh sold in this neighbourhood in all of May. The other two listings close by were pulled off market last week, so finally the landlord decides to do the same. Asks us if we’ll stay and he’ll relist next Fall or Spring. We’re thinking about it. Probably will. The squeeze is happy here for now.

What’s crazy to me is if landlord had just listed both houses at the same time he would have easily sold both for 1.9 mil each. Now he’s holding out that the market will turn hot again in 6-12 months.

Its no matter to us. Things are going good. Cheap rent that let’s us save for down payment when we’re ready and the market is ripe.

#40 Philco on 05.30.22 at 5:16 pm

#23 crowdedelevatorfartz on 05.30.22 at 3:55 pm
———————–
Location matters. Some will and some won’t.
My RE is not overprice.
Peeps bought garbage for millions get what they deserve.
Sale are down now offers still coming… people have time to thing before they make the biggest investment of their life.
Someone should have warned them….Oh Garth did but, they didn’t get the memo LOL

#41 Calgary Rip Off on 05.30.22 at 5:20 pm

@18 ElGatoNeroYVR
Calgary is cheap compared to other overpriced Canadian cities. Yes, and its a crime ridden overpriced city.

It is stressful to live here physically. Migraines. Insomnia. Kidney stones. There is a reason why people leave.

I am not from here so I know that what I experience living here is not normal.

You need $100K to survive. And rents if you can find them are more than a mortgage with no rent controls. Calgary is a rat race.

#42 Verbal diarrhea on 05.30.22 at 5:21 pm

#32 Diamond Dog on 05.30.22 at 4:42 pm

#tldr

Buddy, take some immodium and get that verbal diarrhea under control!

#43 Dr V on 05.30.22 at 5:22 pm

So many forces at work, fighting the unstable equilibrium
that is the economy. Wait and see. Buy the dips.

Note for latest bank earnings.

https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/canadian-banks-gave-false-signal-182244130.html

#44 Mr. Subtlety on 05.30.22 at 5:26 pm

#33 Faron on 05.30.22 at 4:48 pm
#29 Mr. Subtlety on 05.30.22 at 4:29 pm

Loserville, N.S?

On Vancouver Island, some people call Nanaimo “Loserville, B.C.”

÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷

So true. That was my first choice but my brother lives there so I chose not too. And he could afford to live anywhere. Has property in Whistler.. and sold North Vancouver a year ago at market top.

More to placate his wife who has family on one of the smaller islands.

#45 or_maybe on 05.30.22 at 5:30 pm

GT – you’ve omitted so much critical information; terrible decisions by central banks for far too long that it is now culminating into geopolitical tensions arising all over the globe, broke nations within the EU that cannot afford to lend to each other above 0%, incomprehensible deficits in Japan and the US where they cannot withstand prolonged higher interest payments and where some are now firmly voicing their opinion if deficits really matter anymore? – that implies a technical default.

So in your own version of wisdom might imply a tale of the very-much-as expected, what will be the market tale of the unexpected you conveniently forgot to talk about for the rest of 2022 and 2023?

#46 Russ on 05.30.22 at 5:33 pm

.
Another reason to dislike Nanaimo and it’s bear market:

https://vancouverisland.ctvnews.ca/bears-found-in-central-nanaimo-to-be-relocated-rcmp-say-1.5923522

https://vancouverisland.ctvnews.ca/bear-and-2-cubs-euthanized-after-repeat-sightings-in-nanaimo-bccos-1.5924728

#47 TurnerNation on 05.30.22 at 5:44 pm

Life in Kanada. New vote the control over travel is PERMANENT — as mentioned — it just passed, again.
The Long Game. Kommunism was rolled out that cold week, March 2020. Get used to it.

https://www.ourcommons.ca/members/en/live-vote?voteId=366
“(i) Canadians are currently experiencing unacceptable wait times at Canadian airports, even though airports are still operating at reduced capacity,
(ii) current restrictions have been cited by experts as ineffective and contributing to additional delays, costs, and confusion, as well as acute labour shortages,
(iii) Canada’s international allies have moved to lift COVID-19 restrictions at airports and other points of entry,
(iv) Canada is losing business and economic opportunities,”


Control over our feeding/Life in a Former First World Country.
Mainstream news now. Our rulers want us eating bugs, like animals.
Starting ’em young.

.Locusts and mealworms could be on the menu for children at four primary schools in Wales
Jamie Micklethwaite PUBLISHED Monday 30 May 2022
https://www.gbnews.uk/news/primary-school-children-could-be-fed-edible-insects-to-help-make-uk-greener/306109

.Kids to explore eating bugs to gauge appetite for ‘alternative protein’
Monday 30 May 2022 11:28 am
https://metro.co.uk/2022/05/30/pupils-at-four-wales-primary-schools-offered-insect-diet-16734980

.Adelaide university researchers push insect diet as sustainable food source | 7NEWS
3,028 views Apr 24, 2022
Brave volunteers are putting their taste buds to the test at the University of Adelaide. Researchers are preparing common insects for consumption, insisting sustainable food sources are the future.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GAK4ZxS4AZ8

#48 Linda on 05.30.22 at 5:56 pm

#10 ‘Rich’ – if I were you I’d check out how banks did when RE collapsed back in the early 1980’s. Now, home prices were the diddly of squat compared to today’s valuations, but mortgage rates were touching on 22%. So back in the day severe economic contraction/recession. Thousands of job cuts with thousands of homeowners suddenly unable to meet the mortgage payment. Banks would not consider renegotiation of mortgages for lower rates. Thousands upon thousands of homes repossessed. It took literal years for banks to offload all the repossessed properties. Did the banks ‘lose money’? Nope. Even as the banks complained about how tough business was due to all those folks defaulting they continued to post billion dollar profits. Billion with a B. I very much doubt that should there be a reprise of the great RE debacle of the 1980’s today that the banks wouldn’t continue to post billion dollar profits. That is their job & they know how to do it well.

#49 DON on 05.30.22 at 6:01 pm

#42 Verbal diarrhea on 05.30.22 at 5:21 pm
#32 Diamond Dog on 05.30.22 at 4:42 pm

#tldr

Buddy, take some immodium and get that verbal diarrhea under control!

*******
What Diamond Dog wrote is interesting. What exactly did you contribute?

#50 Nonplused on 05.30.22 at 6:19 pm

I got a friendly reminder from my gas service provider that as of April 1 the carbon tax on natural gas has gone up to $2.629 per GJ. This tax is set to increase each and every year until 2030 when it will be approx. $6.84 per GJ. The same thing is happening to your gasoline. And the farmer’s and trucker’s diesel so also your food.

Anyone who isn’t completely outraged by this is either 1) uninformed, 2) financially illiterate, 3) has no understanding of economics, or 4) stupid. The economy will not survive. And no, pinwheels and solar calculators won’t save us.

All this to solve a problem that technically does not exist. (Yes, the globe is warming ever so slightly. No, it isn’t going to cause any problems we can’t fix with a dyke.) And it isn’t going to solve any problems even if there were problems that could be solved because Canada’s contribution of 2% of the world’s CO2 emissions even if taken to zero wouldn’t cover the annual increase in emissions coming from just China.

The end result of Trudeau’s vision is not environmental harmony. It is an impoverished, depopulated Canada where nobody can live due to the high cost of energy and food. You think the real estate problem was bad in YYZ and YVR? Just wait. 2030 isn’t that far away, and it’ll be another deeper cut every year, even though we are already bleeding plenty.

Make plans to expatriate yourself. Canada is going to die a not so slow death over the next 8 years. Tell your children to move to the US, the sooner the better, but avoid the blue states, because they aren’t much smarter.

Oh ya, and don’t blame Putin for the price of gas. The price we pay is made in Ottawa. And Victoria if you are unfortunate enough to live in BC. Putin has very little to do with the price of natural gas in Canada. Or gasoline for that matter.

#51 Vancouver Brit on 05.30.22 at 6:20 pm

Posted about it before but if you believe in oil and Maple a good bet so far for me has been:

NXF.TO
CI Energy Giants Covered Call ETF

Oil companies from around the World and Canada.

YTD on stock price = 37.15%
Div Yield paid Qtrly = 8.43%
YTD total return = 44.8%
1 yr total return = 64.26%
Expense ratio = 0.72%
___________________________________

Should have gone with XEG.TO:

+63.30% YTD
+115% 1-Year
+500% from Covid lows

This bad boy has saved my bacon since Covid, especially this year. Even a small holding has significantly reduced losses.

#52 Dr V on 05.30.22 at 6:26 pm

41 CRO

“It is stressful to live here physically. Migraines. Insomnia. Kidney stones. There is a reason why people leave.

I am not from here so I know that what I experience living here is not normal.

You need $100K to survive. And rents if you can find them are more than a mortgage with no rent controls. Calgary is a rat race.”
———————————————-

I got the migraines. I thought it was school. I learned
about it watching the weather forecast. Lady who
worked at the TV station explained it. Turned out my friend’s Dad had it worse. He had to move to Canmore.

Any larger centre is a rat race. Nanaimo is about as big
as I would want anymore. Dont move to Victoria – way overrated.

#53 Leo Trollstoy on 05.30.22 at 6:45 pm

#29 Mr. Subtlety on 05.30.22 at 4:29 pm

No.

Try reading the article again

#54 Doing my Part on 05.30.22 at 7:03 pm

Yes, I bought a couple hundred K of XEG about a year ago, somebody on this blog mentioned it and it sounded good with the recovery prognosis at the time, up 152% since I bought it. Provided a get lift combined with my Canadian Bank stocks.
Thanks to whomever that was.

#55 Ponzius Pilatus on 05.30.22 at 7:10 pm

#11 Blogger lager on 05.30.22 at 3:01 pm
Word on the street is that Garth is considering to bring this anachronistic blog into the 21st century. You know, with all the bells and whistles that make a modern blog has to offer to make it , well – modern.

Let me know where to send the cases of beer so that we may celebrate this monumental change.
——————
What makes this blog so great?
It’s simplicity.
But I take your case of beer, anyway.
Send it to Garth, care of Ponzi.

#56 NOSTRADAMUS on 05.30.22 at 7:11 pm

TIME TO DROP YOUR LISTING PRICE-SIGH.
I suspect that realtor conversations with prospective sellers are now longer and more emotional than they were just a few months ago. Typical scenario, show empathy (101) as realtor pulls a few nose hairs, eyes water up, and their price reduction strategy kicks in. The conversation will go along these lines. “As your home has been listed for several days with little or no interest from buyers, it’s time to consider dropping the price. If you do drop the price, you are far better off doing one large price drop instead of a series of smaller price drops, because a large number of drops is often interpreted as desperation and encourages buyers to wait even longer or make a lower offer.” This strategy is the only sales strategy that the realtors know. You must remember, for the past 12 years the ranks of the new sales agents has ballooned up to 68,000 in the GTA. For 12 long years, selling skills became a lost art, and disappeared into the mists of time. The vast majority of new agents never needed to add this to their miniscule sales resumé. The old grey beards, the realtors with experience and long memories ,MMMM too old, I want Bob, the cool cat I went to school with. Besides, all realtors are the same. Short three word synopsis “wrong, wrong, and wrong”! With the market down shifting, your friend, realtor Bob, with little if any sales experience, will soon become a relic of the good old realtor days. I am looking for the return of the grey beards, the realtors with vast experience who quietly looked after their clients best interest in the good times, and will continue to do so in fast approaching trying times. Steady lads, hold the line.

#57 Ponzius Pilatus on 05.30.22 at 7:19 pm

#42 Verbal diarrhea on 05.30.22 at 5:21 pm
#32 Diamond Dog on 05.30.22 at 4:42 pm

#tldr

Buddy, take some immodium and get that verbal diarrhea under control!
—————–
I think he should up his non-soluble fiber intake.
So doing his business would not take so long.

#58 espressobob on 05.30.22 at 7:24 pm

Investors just sit back and usually do a whole lot of nothing. A contrarian play never hurts when the herd gets spooked.

Trading in sector plays is when things get tough compared to diversified positions. Sleepless nights, anxiety, and the potential for loss is difficult to recover from when one caves and most do.

Back at the globally diversified ranch, well nothing much ever happens round here except upside over time. Well it’s time for some bourbon and maybe a bit of chew.

#59 Jay on 05.30.22 at 7:26 pm

I am sorry to say the TSX will be back to the 14,000 mark, 2007 levels again. Inflation, crappy Trudeau, Freeland taxes and economy will be the big culprit. I would say 2023 is looking like this will happen.

#60 Sail Away on 05.30.22 at 7:33 pm

#33 Faron on 05.30.22 at 4:48 pm
#29 Mr. Subtlety on 05.30.22 at 4:29 pm

Loserville, N.S?

——-

On Vancouver Island, some people call Nanaimo “Loserville, B.C.”

——-

I suspect that demographic, if it exists, is made up of meanspirited and unhappy, possibly mentally unstable, folks.

Totally not my group, so not something I’ve heard before. We love it here for a whole bunch of reasons.

#61 Satori on 05.30.22 at 7:43 pm

#21 TheDood on 05.30.22 at 3:44 pm
#9 John on 05.30.22 at 2:59 pm
“If Garth you are correct on a 0.5% rate hike – what level of correction can we see in Vancouver?”

Very little, as Vancouver is a place for foreigners to park their money.
________________________

The whole ‘foreigner’ narrative was proven incorrect. More than 95% of RE transactions in BC are between locals buying/selling to one another. As the cost of money goes up, everyone can borrow less, this means houses for sale are going to take a whole lot longer to sell, unless the expectations/prices come down.
—————————————
in this case, you are wrong.

Any foreigner can open a Bc Ltd company, they can be headed by just one foreigner. Who in turn can buy loads of RE under that company.

There is absolutely no way that foreign real estate can be tracked. No one can research or has researched the nationality of any owner of a BC.LTD company.

As far as any research on foreign ownership – a BC.LTD company is a British Columbian company, end of story, even if the head of that BC.LTD company is a foreigner.

The ONLY foreign ownership that is tracked is the small amount of people who buy a property in their names and don’t register a BC LTD company to buy the property instead. There is an entire system so many people seem to ignore. So foreign ownership is REAL. And bigger than you think….

How big? No one really knows and that is the beauty of it for foreigner property holders and for excellent money launderings.

#62 Observer on 05.30.22 at 7:51 pm

“If you’ve invested for a distant goal (like retirement or your baby’s university tuition), ignore the noise.”

I think some retirees could be confused by this statement. One could be currently sourcing retirement income from investments while investing for more of the same, in which case “ignore the noise” also applies

Did you miss the words ‘distant goal”? If that confuses current retirees they have more than finances to worry about. – Garth

#63 Taber on 05.30.22 at 7:55 pm

Bitcoin will be 100,000 US in the next year. You read it here first the prediction and result. Remember Taber.

#64 Observer on 05.30.22 at 8:03 pm

#62 Observer on 05.30.22 at 7:51 pm
“If you’ve invested for a distant goal (like retirement or your baby’s university tuition), ignore the noise.”

I think some retirees could be confused by this statement. One could be currently sourcing retirement income from investments while investing for more of the same, in which case “ignore the noise” also applies

Did you miss the words ‘distant goal”? If that confuses current retirees they have more than finances to worry about. – Garth

^^^^^^^^^^^^^
I was just trying to be helpful. Sorry.

#65 Satori on 05.30.22 at 8:06 pm

Anyone can own a sole proprietorship, partnership or corporation in BC, regardless of their citizenship status. This makes B.C. the most flexible province in the country regarding non-resident businesses.

A corporation may choose to purchase real estate, not for the benefit of personal use but for the benefit of the corporation. This could include purchasing the real estate that your company is operating out of, or ANY OTHER PROPERTIES that it wants for investment purposes.

And bonus: Tax benefits, and entire legal teams that specialize in helping foreigners set themselves up to purchase properties here in Canada under these BC LTD companies.

#66 Stone on 05.30.22 at 8:13 pm

Another wonderful day in the B&D portfolio world. Currently sitting at -3.93% YTD.

Finally decided to publish my B&D portfolio for all to see for better or worse.

https://www.fomotina.com/my-investment-portfolio/

#67 Ed on 05.30.22 at 8:14 pm

I no longer intend to visit my grandkids in Calgary as the risk of kidney stones is too high.

Hopefully they’ll visit me in Sidney where my kidneys are fine but my brain shrinks.

#68 Ponzius Pilatus on 05.30.22 at 8:15 pm

#63 Taber on 05.30.22 at 7:55 pm
Bitcoin will be 100,000 US in the next year. You read it here first the prediction and result. Remember Taber.
————
Did you borrow CEF’s “Fuzzy Crystal Ball”.
I gotta tell you he’s got not a good record in the prognotication business.
Regular gas at 2.14 in a Super Save in Richmond.
Only 3 weeks to reach 3.00.

#69 robert on 05.30.22 at 8:24 pm

Disarm law abiding citizens….yeah, that’ll work.

https://americanmilitarynews.com/2022/05/school-officer-wasnt-on-campus-during-shooting-gunman-entered-through-propped-open-door-officials/?utm_source=quayle&utm_campaign=alt&utm_medium=facebook

#70 45north on 05.30.22 at 8:36 pm

Diamond Dog
We are about to witness an effort by the Fed to create a controlled demolition of the markets. The timing is political. A controlled demolition may not succeed, it remains to be seen. But, they will try regardless and raise rates past neutral just in time for the midterms. None of us should be naive in terms of how this influences voters.

interesting times

#71 Shawn on 05.30.22 at 8:37 pm

Outraged about the Carbon tax?

#50 Nonplused on 05.30.22 at 6:19 pm

I got a friendly reminder from my gas service provider that as of April 1 the carbon tax on natural gas has gone up to $2.629 per GJ. This tax is set to increase each and every year until 2030 when it will be approx. $6.84 per GJ. The same thing is happening to your gasoline. And the farmer’s and trucker’s diesel so also your food.

Anyone who isn’t completely outraged by this is either 1) uninformed, 2) financially illiterate, 3) has no understanding of economics, or 4) stupid.

****************************
What about 5) Rich enough that it just does not matter?

Rex Murphy wrote about the two solitudes in Canada. A majority for whom the carbon tax and high energy prices are a very big deal

2) A rich minority who are barely affected and can’t understand what all the fuss is about. “Let them use profits from their oil investments to cover this” some of them might say.

P.S. Yawn…

#72 espressobob on 05.30.22 at 8:51 pm

Well I know this post will piss off a few.

Commodity plays are the most amusing predictions of ignorance based on emotion and the lack of fundamentals.

Going for a home run or worse, a grand slam has ruined many including professional hedge fund managers, leaving their clients in a world of pain. Lovely.

Must be fun writing that so called comfort letter. Yikes.

#73 Quintilian on 05.30.22 at 9:04 pm

https://www2.gov.bc.ca/gov/content/housing-tenancy/real-estate-bc/land-owner-transparency-registry

They can run, but they can’t hide, the noose is getting tighter.

Corporations or not, the ultimate beneficiary has to be disclosed.

Yes, some, most will not obey the law and skirt it, but then they become criminals.

Once it is convenient to round up the usual suspects, it will be done as political and media careers are to be gained.

This guy is doing a great job of exposing some of the putrefaction:
https://rezel.ca/

#74 Elon must on 05.30.22 at 9:06 pm

Please stop changing the pic
That’s the only way I know I have read the blog
Getting old for #### sake

#75 Satori on 05.30.22 at 9:22 pm

So with Foreign Investments…Staticians have the wrong data. They cannot find out how many homes are owned by a BC LTD company that has a foreign investor and the evidence is hard to find because there is NO Transparency as to who owns the company and THIS should be transparent knowledge…. WHO are the shareholders and where do they reside??? They should be subject to additional fees… but they are not.

SO essentially there is ABSOLUTELY no way of knowing who owns what…

Like to learn more:
https://theses.lib.sfu.ca/file/thesis/5503

Andy Lam who is a professor at Simon Fraser wrote an entire thesis on exactly what I am talking about. Enjoy and the next time you say there is hardly any foreign ownership… take a look at BC and how we are the MONEY LAUNDERING CAPITAL OF THE WORLD.

#76 Satori on 05.30.22 at 10:02 pm

#61 Satori on 05.30.22 at 7:43 pm
#21 TheDood on 05.30.22 at 3:44 pm

About ‘foreign ownership’, no one really cares… that is the very reason why you, and everyone else is so uninformed.

#77 crowdedelevatorfartz on 05.30.22 at 10:03 pm

@#68 Ponzie Pilot
“Only 3 weeks to reach 3.00.”

++++

July 1st is 3 weeks away?

What about the interest rate June 1st?
0.75% hike?

#78 Faron on 05.30.22 at 10:04 pm

#60 Sail Away on 05.30.22 at 7:33 pm

…meanspirited and unhappy, possibly mentally unstable, folks.

Totally not my group,…

Are you sure? I mean, I don’t feel like I have to go around proclaiming I’m not a meanspirited nor unhappy nor mentally unstable person unless I’m responding to you, the common denominator…

#79 Faron on 05.30.22 at 10:39 pm

#52 Dr V on 05.30.22 at 6:26 pm

41 CRO

Nanaimo is about as big
as I would want anymore. Dont move to Victoria – way overrated.

How do I really feel about Nanaimo? In short: opportunities squandered. Nanaimo has a great little downtown. I love the Thai restaurant, Sukkho Thai and recently ate at Modern Cafe and loved what we had. It’s cute and walkable — like a little chunk of Nova Scotia. Outside of town there’s rock climbing, great trails and is just that much closer to real mountains. Etc.

But whomever decided to develop a casino and a mall in the midst of downtown made grave, irreversible mistakes. D- urban planning. And, the dominance of certain motorcycle-based organized crime group(s) in the days of yore put it on a bad path.

Still think Port Alberni is an underrated locale.

#80 Sail Away on 05.30.22 at 10:52 pm

#79 Faron on 05.30.22 at 10:39 pm

But whomever decided to develop a casino and a mall in the midst of downtown made grave, irreversible mistakes. D- urban planning.

———-

Even worse is the salvation army soup kitchen right next to them. Nobody wants to see that.

#81 Dr V on 05.30.22 at 11:21 pm

79 Faron

Agreed on Pt Alberni

#82 Fiendish Thingy on 05.30.22 at 11:59 pm

#80 Sail Away

We moved to Nanaimo just before the pandemic; despite its flaws and struggles, after living in Maple Ridge (aka the worst planned city in the Lower Mainland) for seven years, Nanaimo seems like heaven on earth.

(But don’t tell anyone, they’ll want to move here! What? Nanaimo is the fastest growing city in Canada? …dang)

#83 Alberta Boy on 05.31.22 at 12:24 am

Visit Nanaimo every summer. Love the place. But I am a redneck from Alberta so there is that haha

#84 Moneyfromasia on 05.31.22 at 12:29 am

Yea, bearmarket rallies are vicious, doesn’t mean the trend has reversed yet. This short trend is not your freind. Perhaps it’s better you stick to forecasting the 15 years of the housing market crash.

#85 Ustabe on 05.31.22 at 12:38 am

#81 Dr V on 05.30.22 at 11:21 pm

79 Faron

Agreed on Pt Alberni

Agree with you both.

#86 AB on 05.31.22 at 12:51 am

Dr. Gilbert Solingsworth has just finished his post Doctoral fellowship . He has conclusive evidence that living in Calgary increases the risk of psoriasis by 37.2%.

#87 Elon Fanboy on 05.31.22 at 1:32 am

#80 Sail Away. “ Even worse is the salvation army soup kitchen right next to them. Nobody wants to see that.”

Yep. Biggest problem in downtown is that building. Horrible location when you are trying to attract tourists and businesses to downtown. Ground zero for Nanaimo’s homeless….and we have a lot of them. They’re our biggest issue. Huge amount of petty crime goes right back to this growing group.

#88 Dr V on 05.31.22 at 1:53 am

73 Q – from your second link

“BAN CORPORATE AND FOREIGN RESIDENTIAL PROPERTY OWNERSHIP IN CANADIAN CITIES…….
The solution: Canada needs to recognize housing as a human right and ban corporate and foreign ownership of residential real estate in Canada’s major metropolitan areas.”
——————————————–

Good grief. I own a share of a rental through my little personal corp going on 20 years. A real speculator and such a crook am I.

All the govt had to do was pull a title search then a corp search to see my and my wife’s names in black and white. But again, because I am a crook I have to get my “legal professional” to do it.

Over to blogger Philco…….

#89 Gunner on 05.31.22 at 1:53 am

If you sold into the panic it just means your entire wealth strategy is broken. If you had to sell into the margin mayhem , your greed is at fault. For most they’ll never make that money back. For the rest of us “Idiot Horrible Cowboys”, there’s been a couple of sectors that have gone up at the same time the ‘Freak Outs’ we’re setting their hair on fire. Are the retail unwashed the only losers so far? No .

Even the Asshat of all Asshats Jim Cramer was screaming that “ you should sell and put your money in better stocks”, in other words he was advising people to lose a lot of money. Now keep in mind, Jimbo, like a lot of advisors has zero skin in the game. In spite of his raving, he doesn’t personally own a single share of any company. Tells you what his television advice is worth.

I’d show you why my portfolio is high and dry, but what does a Horrible Cowboy like me know compared to a mutual fund algo at your local bank? The difference between me and many franchise advisors, Cowboys have skin in the game. I play with real money.

#90 rampant inflation on 05.31.22 at 7:01 am

And look at this: on Wednesday 83% of market breadth in NY was up. The next day, 87%. On Friday, 87% again. This is a rare thing
_________________________________

super rare.

too bad it didn’t come after climactic selling or on high volume. kind of matters. plus, you’re entering the summer doldrums.

you should have someone look at the 2007/8 collapse, and overlay it with crude prices. eerily similar. especially if the next two months are duds and crude spikes, like they are actually doing now.

Eurozone CPI “surprised” to the upside. 8.1% with negative/zero interest rates.

US threatening to raise rates to 2% with CPI at 8.5%

Bank of Canada credibility being questioned. I wonder why? 7% CPI and 1% rates? threatening to go to 1.5%?

Central banks are the criminals here.

inflation is RAMPANT and they caused it.

Nope. The world is not that simple. – Garth

#91 Robert S. on 05.31.22 at 7:54 am

You never let any vaccine comments through – except “get vaccinated”

One day, there was a sharp switch in your tone. I noticed. I notice a lot of things – and my senses picked something up that day.

Are you being paid, or have you ever been paid, to promote the covid vaccine? At the time, this was not known…but I knew. You still don’t allow any information about the failed efficacy of the vaccine on your blog, and it’s suspicious. Readers deserve to know if you’re sponsored, or paid, to deliver a particular message. This is covered under the

The government has been paying influencers. Are you being paid?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Lq0jAwvOcgc

https://adstandards.ca/wp-content/uploads/Ad-Standards-Influencer-Marketing-Steering-Committee-Disclosure-Guidelines_FALL2020_EN.pdf

Get serious. Vaccines save lives and open the economy. Most people have done the right thing. Selfish cowards (many in trucks) have not. – Garth

#92 crowdedelevatorfartz on 05.31.22 at 8:37 am

@#75 Satori
“take a look at BC and how we are the MONEY LAUNDERING CAPITAL OF THE WORLD.”
+++
When did we steal that title from Switzerland? London?

Not to worry.
We’re still the “Best Place on Erf”…. as the license plates used to say…..

https://thetyee.ca/Mediacheck/2011/10/04/BC-Best-Place-On-Earth/

#93 the Jaguar on 05.31.22 at 8:51 am

Itchy keyboard fingers this morning. Guess I will post some snippets since it’s interest rate increase eve, lol , and ‘P.S. Doug R – I thought that was a pretty good line.. ++++

-Swiss bank UBS ranks Frankfurt in Germany as the city with the biggest bubble risk, followed by Toronto, Hong Kong and Munich, Germany, based on factors such as the relationship between prices, incomes and rents.Homeowners with a variable-rate mortgage are also starting to feel the heat. ++++

-“The amount of grain left in the world will last for 10 weeks.” Kira Rudik, member of Ukraine’s parliament and leader of a reform party called Voice. ++++

-Canadian banks delivered surprisingly good earnings last week because of lower-than-expected credit losses. They’ll find it harder to repeat that feat in the near future, according to National Bank of Canada. “Unless recession risk goes away, this quarter was a false signal” of credit quality in banks, Dechaine wrote. “We believe positive credit surprises could turn into negative ones, especially if recessionary probabilities increase.” ++++

-Since the beginning of the Biden presidency, about 1.4 million migrants were expelled under Title 42, leaving more than a one million who were processed and dispersed surreptitiously across America. In addition to this volume, there are reportedly 300,000 “gotaways,” individuals who entered the U.S. since October without any processing by Border Patrol personnel. All who remain have access to public services — transportation, police, fire, water, emergency health care, possibly baby formula, and schools for children with costs borne by U.S. taxpayers.
If Title 42 — the last remaining restriction — is lifted, many predict a tsunami of applicants — conceivably as many as 18,000 per day — for a system that is already broken and severely overwhelmed.
Ultimately it is a test of leadership for the president. He has shown no inclination to get involved nor to visit the border and has yet to offer a credible plan to fix the cascading problem. That is why it is a test of his leadership that polls suggest Biden is failing.BIDEN IS UNDER ATTACK FROM ALL SIDES. (31 May 2022-DEREK H. BURNEY Derek H. Burney is a former, 30 year career diplomat who served as Ambassador to the United States of America from 1989-1993.) ++++

Sleep tight, my beauties indeed.

#94 X on 05.31.22 at 8:55 am

Certainly feels like the market is pricing in a pause in inflation (hopefully) and rates for the end of this year. It would be nice to get some of these raising prices under control.

#95 Ponzius Pilatus on 05.31.22 at 9:06 am

92 crowdedelevatorfartz on 05.31.22 at 8:37 am
@#75 Satori
“take a look at BC and how we are the MONEY LAUNDERING CAPITAL OF THE WORLD.”
+++
When did we steal that title from Switzerland? London?

Not to worry.
We’re still the “Best Place on Erf”…. as the license plates used to say…..
——————-
Maybe not “Best Place on Earth”.
But pretty close.
Count your blessings.

#96 crowdedelevatorfartz on 05.31.22 at 9:33 am

An excellent article on the latest knee jerk reaction from our Liberal Trudeau Govt and why it is totally unnecessary.

https://www.msn.com/en-ca/news/canada/first-reading-a-reminder-since-trudeau-apparently-forgot-that-canadian-gun-law-is-already-way-stricter-than-the-u-s/ar-AAXUNZM?ocid=winp1taskbar&cvid=3cb869221ee5453783a87cee2951c93f

More govt bureaucracy on top of the legions of bureaucrats….. is the Liberal way.

#97 Faron on 05.31.22 at 9:42 am

#87 Elon Fanboy on 05.31.22 at 1:32 am

#80 Sail Away. “ Even worse is the salvation army soup kitchen right next to them. Nobody wants to see that.”

Yep. Biggest problem in downtown is that building. Horrible location when you are trying to attract tourists and businesses to downtown. Ground zero for Nanaimo’s homeless….and we have a lot of them. They’re our biggest issue. Huge amount of petty crime goes right back to this growing group.

@Sail Away and @Elon Fanboy (same?)

Revealing as always…

There are a lot of ways to respond to your griping about basic services for the homeless. One of them is to ask you to consider that unhoused people tend to gather at economically downtrodden parts of the city. That end of town is downtrodden because there’s a yawning gap in pedestrian accessibility owing to the casino and the mall.

Also consider that your homeless are probably largely addicts (the ones committing petty crime). Guess what happens when your city was the drug transit hub for Vancouver Island for decades? Yep, lots of supply, lots of addicts.

Also consider that I don’t avoid downtown Nanaimo because of the homeless problem. I couldn’t care less. I avoid it because it’s a smattering of a place that has terrible access and poor walkability because of crap urban design.

Finally, where would you move the Salvation Army services center? How? Every hear of NIMBYs?

#98 DON on 05.31.22 at 9:47 am

#85 Ustabe on 05.31.22 at 12:38 am
#81 Dr V on 05.30.22 at 11:21 pm

79 Faron

Agreed on Pt Alberni

Agree with you both.

*************

I’m in agreement.

#99 miketheengineer on 05.31.22 at 10:29 am

Hey Garth:

Did anyone ask why they yanked the funds. Was it to pay bills, cause they ran out of cash on hand? Lots of people going to be hurting soon, when their savings runs out purchasing expensive gas or food. I can hear the sucking sound now. Likely people will be pulling from where ever they can to pay the Master Cards when they are maxed out.

It is a sad day. More control on guns. Yet the hug a thug attitude prevails. I don’t get it. If you want to stop the gun action in GTA or anywhere in Ontario, enforce the existing laws to the full extent. If you get caught firing on people you go to jail, no parole.

The hug a thug mind set is the real issue here. Get tough on crime, the gun issue goes away, by enforcing the law to the full extent.

Are these people stupid or what.

Bad guys do bad things. They need to be held accountable. Right now they are not. Your politicans are to blame. In UK, there is very few guns and shootings, but the thugs have resorted to machete’s and knives to do their dirty business. If a thug wants to kill he will. You can’t stop it. Get tough on thugs if you want to solve the issue. Prosecute to the maximum extent of existing laws.

#100 Sail Away on 05.31.22 at 11:23 am

#97 Faron on 05.31.22 at 9:42 am
#87 Elon Fanboy on 05.31.22 at 1:32 am

#80 Sail Away. “ Even worse is the salvation army soup kitchen right next to them. Nobody wants to see that.”

——–

@Sail Away and @Elon Fanboy (same?)

Revealing as always…

There are a lot of ways to respond to your griping about basic services for the homeless.

——–

Griping? That would be an unkind, meanspirited interpretation.

It is unfortunate that there are homeless people. My Rotary club, of which I have been board member for a dozen years, and previously president, works tirelessly to help feed the needy in our community, including, but not limited to: buying industrial refrigerators, assisting on the line, and donating large sums of money, clothing, and volunteerism annually.

I’ll await your apology. Try being a nice person.

#101 Shawn on 05.31.22 at 11:24 am

Statistical Noise and the Savings rate

In a release full of jargon that could easily raise a 1000 questions, StatsCan included the following gem:

“Increases in nominal household disposable income, combined with a boost to employer-sponsored pension entitlements (+13.2%) outweighed higher household spending (+2.4%), which was bolstered by rising prices. This resulted in an 8.1% household savings rate in the first quarter of 2022. This rate followed a 6.9% household savings rate in the fourth quarter of 2021. By comparison, the average household savings rate over the decade prior to 2020 was 3.5%. The household savings rate is aggregated across all income brackets. In general, savings rates are greater in higher income brackets.”

Okay, so the calculated household savings rate is up versus Q4 and double what it’s been for the last decade on average despite inflation outpacing wage gains and the reason in Q1 is that deductions for pensions were up a massive 13.2% versus (I believe) Q4.

I suppose in part that could be all the higher income people who max out their CPP by mid year (been there, done that) and have zero CPP pension deductions in Q4. But StatsCan normally seasonally adjusts for such things.

Anyhow, I would take with a huge grain of salt the idea that the savings rate is up in the face of recent inflation.

Here is the whole confusing release:

https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/daily-quotidien/220531/dq220531b-eng.htm?CMP=mstatcan

#102 Sail Away on 05.31.22 at 11:36 am

#96 crowdedelevatorfartz on 05.31.22 at 9:33 am

An excellent article on the latest knee jerk reaction from our Liberal Trudeau Govt and why it is totally unnecessary.

——–

Yep. There are so many handgun restrictions and penalties already in place, no self-respecting criminal would ever think about buying one legally.

This latest effort will affect target shooters, so sort of like demonizing dart players, golfers, and lawn bowlers.

Oh well, no effect on me. But if they even think about coming after my 1947 Ferlach side by side shotgun, it’s going straight to my brother in South Dakota.

#103 DON on 05.31.22 at 11:44 am

A couple months ago the EU said inflation not a problem…no need to raise rates. How fast the narrative changes.

#104 Senator Bluto on 05.31.22 at 11:45 am

Although I don’t own handguns, I’m very concerned about Trudeau’s blatant attempt to create a new class of criminals amongst law abiding good citizens in Canada while doing nothing to stop the actual criminals.

Question: Will any of the proposed laws stop criminals from using handguns?

Answer: Of course not, they are criminals. If they were concerned about the law they wouldn’t commit such illegal acts to begin with.

Question: When Trudeau realizes that his new gun laws have done nothing to stop gang gun violence will he:

1. Admit that he was wrong and reverse course and restore hand gun ownership to law abiding citizens?

or

2. Double down on failure and strip all guns from everyone, everywhere, leaving only crims with guns?

I’m a bit surprised he hasn’t gone after private vehicle ownership cars in his gun bill also as cars often figure prominently gang gun violence.

Maybe that will be next.

As someone once said, “Inside every progressive is a totalitarian screaming to get out.”

Question: why does anyone need a handgun? – Garth

#105 Shabba Ranks on 05.31.22 at 11:53 am

#32 Diamond Dog on 05.30.22 at 4:42 pm

Excellent commentary! A good reminder that there are politics behind the fed’s decisions.

#106 tc-contra on 05.31.22 at 12:11 pm

Question: why does anyone need a handgun? – Garth

—————————————————————

If bad guy comes to my door with gun, what do i protect myself with? A baseball bat can only go so far, and I was never good at the game.

Painful to see Garth go Woke

Then I guess we all need guns, right? – Garth

#107 Ponzius Pilatus on 05.31.22 at 12:12 pm

#105 Shabba Ranks on 05.31.22 at 11:53 am
#32 Diamond Dog on 05.30.22 at 4:42 pm

Excellent commentary! A good reminder that there are politics behind the fed’s decisions.
————————-
So you actually read the whole “commentary”?
And you came up with a 11 word “executive summary”.
And what’s the solution?
Don’t allow the Executive to talk to the Fed Chair?
Maybe they were just talking about the weather.

#108 Brian on 05.31.22 at 12:31 pm

The Pres. and FED Chair are having lunch as I write this. I doubt they got together for a “nothing burger”. Either they are going to claim significant progress on inflation and sound doveish( the two half point increases for June and July will be followed by a definite pause and maybe the balance sheet reduction will be slower than originally laid out. That is door #1 and if that is the one they choose, stocks are likely to take off rocketing higher. Door #2 is more tough talk on fighting inflation and sounding hawkish “as we can’t let up now, we have to stay vigilant”. That should provide the accelerated stock selloff I was looking for coming into today’s session, at least for today. Choose your door and place your bets. This afternoon should be wild!

#109 Russ on 05.31.22 at 12:42 pm

Senator Bluto on 05.31.22 at 11:45 am

….

As someone once said, “Inside every progressive is a totalitarian screaming to get out.”

Question: why does anyone need a handgun? – Garth

=====================================

The answer to Garth’s question is the same as the answer for:

Why does anyone need a golf club?

Please answer in the context assuming we live in a democratic and free country.

Cheers, R

#110 Senator Bluto on 05.31.22 at 1:30 pm

Why does anyone need a handgun? – Garth

_________________

Some people enjoy shooting sports. I have a friend who shoots black powder pistols, which are loaded similar to a muzzle loader then topped with crisco lard to weather proof the charge. It’s a throwback purely for entertainment. Nothing more. No gang banger would think about using her revolvers in a drive-by.

#111 Ustabe on 05.31.22 at 2:03 pm

Ladies, Gentlemen…The first rule of hand gun possession in Canada since forever is do not talk about, brag or show off your handguns to anyone.

Besides you can always pick up an Israeli IWI Tavor, a bullpup semi-auto that our Mr. Harper allowed into Canada while he was in charge. Best of both worlds, I keep mine at the local RCMP armory, scares the poop out of me. The RCMP members sure love coming to the range or up the mountain and shooting it but I think it scares the poop out of them too.

Guns of any sort are scary, let us not forget that.

#112 Squire on 05.31.22 at 7:01 pm

#106 tc-contra on 05.31.22 at 12:11 pm
Question: why does anyone need a handgun? – Garth

—————————————————————

If bad guy comes to my door with gun, what do i protect myself with? A baseball bat can only go so far, and I was never good at the game.

Painful to see Garth go Woke

Then I guess we all need guns, right? – Garth
——————————————————
Well, if all hand guns are banned then that leaves only the Police and criminals with guns. The criminals will know that any regular Joe won’t have a gun so they do as they please. So ? what to do ? Stricter guns laws and enforcement of same as well as the border smuggling. Too many bleeding hearts in favor of criminals in this country. Sheesh