Remorse

Oh my. Big changes are suddenly on the horizon. Here’s the latest news. And what it portends.

It’s a fresh 31-year high for inflation in Canada. Economists thought it would ease in April. But it got worse. And now May has brought $2 gas everywhere and crazy food prices, so this month’s number will be more worrisome than the one we heard Wednesday morning. Bond yields surged again. The Canada five-year (which determines mortgages) has gone from under 1% to 3% in a year. Elon speed.

As a result, that rate hike two weeks from today is a no-brainer. “All of this re-enforces the view that the Bank of Canada will hike by another 50 basis points (bps) on June 1st, followed by another 50 bps in July,” says TD Economics. That means the chartered bank prime will be 4.2% in a few weeks. Mortgages well above five.

It’s not just Canada. Or only our central bank at fault, as Pepe alleges. The economy is running hot everywhere with war, Covid and the supply chain making it worse. This is going to last a while and has only really started.

This is what the boss of the US Fed said in a big speech yesterday:

“If we go past neutral, we won’t hesitate. This is a strong economy. We think it is well-positioned to withstand less accommodative monetary policy and tighter monetary policy.”

What Jerome Powell meant is that caging the beast of inflation is more important in the long run than crashing into the economy in the short run. If the bankers don’t fix now, it will become a far greater problem in a few years leading to a worse outcome. So, Americans can count on a series of tightening measures driving rates higher (US mortgages are already averaging 5.57%) and our guys are going to follow – as they have historically 92% of the time.

There are a lot of real-world consequences to this. Canadians carry $1.73 trillion in mortgage debt. Fully 37% of all mortgages come up for renewal during the next 24 months, and they’ll all be refinanced at a vastly higher cost. Hundreds of billions in HELOC loans are outstanding, many of them used to finance the purchase of investment properties. The vast majority are floating-rate obligations, typically borrowed at prime plus a half. With rates already elevated and about to jump another full 1% within eight weeks, carrying costs will swell miserably.

Now, worse for investors and recent homebuyers  – real estate valuations are dropping.

In Vancouver, rockstar realtor Steve Saretsky had this to say: “It’s interesting to see that we went from having everybody freaking out, just frothing at the mouth to get into the housing market four months ago, to all of a sudden, having them say, ‘Oh, hey, maybe I should walk away from a deposit.”

Yesterday this blog gave you a snapshot into declining values around the GTA. Last week we showcased Bunnypatch. The plop is happening fastest in those places where sale prices exploded irrationally – the burbs, the hick cities, the rural enclaves and anywhere house-lusty Millennials and Zs swarmed to try and salve their burning FOMO. Now the pendulum has swung. Many have buyer’s remorse, having paid hundreds of thousands too much in the heat of the moment. And headlines like this are making it all more real.

“A wave of buyer’s remorse is taking shape in several heated real estate markets, after housing prices started dropping and the number of sales slowed over the last two months,” reads the lead of a Canadian Press story hitting the wire early Wednesday. Lawyers are reporting a torrent of enquiries from recent buyers wondering how to get out of deals before closing, and also from buyers afraid their transactions will collapse – meaning they’ll be unable to buy properties they went firm on. It’s the domino-effect at the heart of all modern real estate collapses. Will it gain traction here in property-crazed Canada? Can people be that fickle that fast?

Hell ya. Especially because so many bought unbuilt properties from plans with borrowed down payments and never budgeted to close on them.

Says crusty mortgage brokerguy Ron Butler: “The bad news is some units bought 4 or 5 years ago are reaching completion this year in an uncertain market. So far condo prices are holding up but for some of the 4 years ago buyers, they signed for 3 or 4 units expecting to sell by assignment at a profit and never take possession What happens if that is impossible and these condo buyers have no financial ability to pay on closing. Yeah, things are going to get interesting.”

And recall that the last federal budget slapped HST on assignment prices, making the economics of flipping dismal. Given that up to 50% of all urban condo sales were to people with no intention of occupying those units, the potential for a collapse in pricing grows more acute.

By the way, a blog dog and property veteran sent this note yesterday: “There are now 68,385 realtors in the GTA. That would fill the Roger’s Centre and the Scotia Bank Arena.”

Oh my, What have we done?

About the picture: “This is my all-time favourite canine,” writes Leslie in Ontario. “An ex-sled dog who is thoroughly enjoying his outing on the shore of Superior near Thunder Bay. Whiskey’s lichen sniffing reminds us that we all need to smell the roses. Step outside and be gobsmacked by the beauty that surrounds you. (And if it does not because it does not surround you, relocate! Get a life.)”

219 comments ↓

#1 Ray Skunk on 05.18.22 at 12:21 pm

Anecdotal evidence from up here in what I believe to be the “Bunnypatch” – 2hrs GO from Union.

Just returned from a couple weeks out of town. Same “for sale” signs on the same houses still here, whereas 2mo ago signs would go from “coming soon” to “sold” over the space of a weekend.

House around the corner just taken a $25k haircut on asking.

Friend closing on his place in June looking over his shoulder at the possibility of his buyer dropping out (buyer paid top dollar and new high for the street at peak in Feb).

#2 Legal Beagle on 05.18.22 at 12:23 pm

“It’s not just Canada. Or only our central bank at fault, as Pepe alleges.”

*****************************************
I’m glad you agree with the appropriate nickname Garth! Also has the added benefit of complying with Quebec’s proposed language laws.

#3 Doug t on 05.18.22 at 12:30 pm

LOL – oh well some people are going experience something that they have never lived through before and its going last a while

#4 Sail Away on 05.18.22 at 12:43 pm

Re: rising rates

Tripling or quadrupling the mortgage rate, eh? Let’s examine, using an $800k mortgage.

2021- 5 yr fixed @ 1.65%: interest per year = $13,200
2026- 5 yr fixed @ 4.95%: interest per year = $39,600
2026- 5 yr fixed @ 6.00%: interest per year = $48,000

That should be no big deal though, right? Right? It’s just a little bump in after-tax costs.

I may not have the above totally accurate, never really having participated in the whole ‘mortgage’ thing, though.

We’ll just keep living in our house. It’s a nice house, made of wood and drywall, with electricity and water and stuff. We assume the other houses sold recently in our neighbourhood are made of gold, even though they look quite similar to ours.

#5 Don Guillermo on 05.18.22 at 12:43 pm

#122 Sail Away on 05.18.22 at 10:22 am
Greening the planet.

Consider significantly improving air quality, reducing CO2, reducing energy needs, and better protecting bonobos by the simple and elegant strategy of reducing 1/2 the current human population via starvation.

A simple path to reduced-footprint utopia. A bit messier than Thanos, but hey, that was a movie. In real life, you can’t make a delicious omelet without cracking some eggs.

A shout out to Sri Lanka:

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/5/18/a-food-crisis-looms-in-sri-lanka-as-farmers-give-up-on-planting

****************

“Once self-sufficient nation reels from fall-out of ill-conceived shift to organic agriculture, compounded by fuel shortages.”

Fallout from the woke movement in real time. Unintended consequences for sure but consistently predicted by many critical thinkers.

#6 Summertime on 05.18.22 at 12:45 pm

For people to hang out to the majority of their oversized mortgages, they need to either get fast 30 % gross salary increases/resulting in 20 % + net salary increases or choose between the mortgage, the bills or the eating/basic consumption part. Forget about discretionary spending and kids for a very long time.

If rates normalize as indicated by central bankers we could see 60 % + prices drop that will leave many with negative equity at renewal time.

So that will not happen. The question is how high real inflation will go/how low real negative rates will go, and whether velocity of money picks up as then short of positive real rates, read 15 % + nothing will fix the roaring inflation for quite some time.

The impact from removing the wealth effect from housing will be catastrophic to real consumption.

Economy did run on fumes from housing and oversized credit for much longer than it is sustainable. Now with judgement day approaching greed is replaced with fear and these scars will not be easily forgotten.

People with small, manageable mortgages will be fine.

If bankers decide to fight downturn with more QE down the road, it could become a horror show.

Fun times ahead, load on popcorn.

Food and energy inflation is the worst of all kinds and it seems it is just starting, let’s see what happens with the fertilizers in the fall.

#7 Slim on 05.18.22 at 12:47 pm

Yesterday, the Kenney traveling clown show were at the Senate Committee on Energy and Natural Resources hearing in Washington, D.C..

Henry Kissinger once said, “America has no permanent friends, or permanent enemies, only permanent interests”.

Kenney and Alberta’s oil (which actually belongs to all Canadians) isn’t it.

#8 Felix on 05.18.22 at 12:47 pm

Very true headline today.

All dog owners feel remorse when they realize how better things could have been with a cat.

#9 Caffeine Monkey on 05.18.22 at 12:50 pm

Isn’t it funny how years of policies like empty homes taxes, speculation taxes, money laundering investigations, and foreign buyers taxes failed to dent housing prices, and then all it took was a measly half point interest rate increase to instantly implode the market. I’m sure some people will still find a thinly-veiled xenophobic way to blame foreigners for all this, but I’m afraid that the facts seem to indicate that this all our own fault.

I think this blog has been saying that for a few years. – Garth

#10 Summertime on 05.18.22 at 12:50 pm

How much of these 1.7 trillion mortgages are ‘insured’ by CHMC? Just asking.

#11 Happy Beaver day on 05.18.22 at 12:52 pm

DELETED

#12 Prince Polo on 05.18.22 at 12:52 pm

How about corresponding articles about Renter’s Remorse? I regret not getting into insane FOMO offer nights, having somebody pay my mortgage, or unlimited staycations. Reap what ye sow, shyster realtors and math-challenged mortgage owners!

#13 rampant inflation on 05.18.22 at 12:54 pm

i guess the asteroid hit.

March 2020 lows here we come.

the SP500 is still 20-30% overvalued.

#14 Bjorn on 05.18.22 at 12:57 pm

I’ve noticed that Dollar Store stock went down today due to the inflation results.
INCREASE THE RATES NOW!
High inflation decimates consumer spending.

#15 willworkforpickles on 05.18.22 at 1:02 pm

This is what the boss of the US Fed said in a big speech yesterday:
“If we go past neutral, we won’t hesitate. This is a strong economy. We think it is well-positioned to withstand less accommodative monetary policy and tighter monetary policy.”
………………………………………………………………………………………………….

Get it into you now or wait till later to find the Fed is merely bluffing with regard to every word of that statement.
…as I’ve been saying among numerous other issues for months on end already.

#16 Linda on 05.18.22 at 1:07 pm

‘Whiskey’ is indeed an example of stopping to smell the roses – or lichen:) Given the looming RE issues for those who went overboard with purchases, I’d imagine not a few will be reaching for a bottle of whiskey or whatever other mind numbing substance to ease the pain.

In other news, the inflation factor. I was expecting higher than 6.8%. Possibly the May number will break 7, though I’m of the opinion those who calculate these numbers are doing all they can to produce the lowest possible number so as not to spook the herd. Good luck with that. Given that a snapshot of 18 Canadian cities showed that 13 of them either remained at the previous month’s inflation rate or went up, how can our official rate only have increased from 6.7 to 6.8? The 5 cities that had a locally lower rate of inflation from March were as follows: Quebec City, Ottawa, Thunder Bay, Edmonton & Whitehorse. I suppose the drop in RE prices may have had an effect on the official inflation number, but still think said number is understated.

#17 50 YEARS OF MAPLE LEAF INCOMPETENCE! on 05.18.22 at 1:09 pm

By the way, a blog dog and property veteran sent this note yesterday: “There are now 68,385 realtors in the GTA. That would fill the Roger’s Centre and the Scotia Bank Arena.”

!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

What a Great Idea!!!

Fill the Scotiabank Morgue with realtors, including the players benches and all the executive booths for the Make Believes.

With no access to the ice surface, and restricted entry to incompetent management, that team could only do better than the last 55 years!!

WINNING!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

#18 YVR Renter on 05.18.22 at 1:17 pm

Up here in bunnypatch C-Town, the same houses are STILL for sale for months or weeks now…one in our hood of builder claptraps was sold but buyer backed out in April. $1.299 million for builder junk, no wonder. They just lowered price by $100,000 to $1.199, finally. Imagine if you bought in March how peeved you’d be?
But seems many think Collingwood is exempt from the events occurring everywhere else, exudes fairy dust and has unicorns in the woods…..and are still asking ridiculous prices. A brand new builder tiny bungalow, single garage, little tiny yard staring at other houses, neighbours on top of ya, driveway not even paid, sod not down, 1300 sq ft + change, still asking $1.25. Are you kidding? Guessing it was bought on spec or buyer can no longer afford the mortgage. We’re waiting for all the mortgage renewers to get a bite of reality and builders to actually have time to answer our call. Meanwhile, sitting on a million of view acreage.

#19 Diharv on 05.18.22 at 1:17 pm

What have we done? We’ve made our bed here in Canada, and now we must lay in it.

#20 Adam on 05.18.22 at 1:27 pm

Thoughts on this article showing a divide within the market at the $1.5M mark? Looks like those above $1.5M are continuing to experience growth:

https://financialpost.com/real-estate/toronto-housing-sales-are-slowing-down-but-not-when-it-comes-to-homes-over-1-5-million

#21 tc-contra on 05.18.22 at 1:31 pm

Anyone still believe ‘they’ have our best interests in mind? Debt-slavery requires no chains nor armed guards. The Bankers will take it all back as they created ‘wealth’ with magic fiat. And the unwashed never learn…

” Having experienced the damage that asset price bubbles can cause, we must be especially vigilant in ensuring that the recent experiences are not repeated. ”

– Ben Bernanke, Federal Reserve Chair, January 3, 2010

#22 crowdedelevatorfartz on 05.18.22 at 1:32 pm

“Pepe” as opposed to PP…. because he kinda stinks…and he’s bilingual…..

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=upEn5msShdk

#23 Shawn on 05.18.22 at 1:34 pm

Move to Alberta!

Gasoline in Alberta is (only) about $1.68. And money from high oil prices is absolutely gushing into the provincial treasury and sloshing around all over. It’s actually getting a bit messy, but in a good way.

Like I said before, Move to Alberta Already! Or at least send your young adult kids.

#AlbertaAdvantage.

Actually net interprovincial migration into Alberta has already turned back positive and will be increasing sharply I suspect.

#24 Faron on 05.18.22 at 1:38 pm

TSLA kicked out of S&P ESG. Less and less E and utter garbage S and G. Literally nobody should be surprised by this.

cue the “political witch hunt crowd” in 3… 2… 1…

Stock down 7%, TWTR down 3.5% as it seems to just be following the market with investors assuming the buyout ain’t happening. Or, if it does maybe because some of Elon’s “financing” for the buyout needs to come from selling TSLA shares.

I’m good at inadvertently picking bottoms, so we shall see if this rips from here. But man, this could get interesting.

#25 Søren Angst on 05.18.22 at 1:39 pm

…meanwhile, US Mr. Market having a bird. About 10 min ago, numbers change like a Vegas slot machine.

Dow -956 pts
S&P -138
Nasdaq -481

All because WMT and TGT had a bad hair day. INFLATION cut into their profits. Everyone in retail, even the $ guys, got slammed:

WMT -6.4%
TGT -26.3
COS -12.5
LOW -5.6
HD -5.2
DLT -16.2
DG -11.7

CB rates in US may go up more than Fed has said if this keeps on going (inflation).

———————–

Fasten your seat belts. It’s going to be a rough ride folks us PALEOS are well acquainted with from the 80’s.

It’s going to get a lot WORSE before it gets better folks.

#26 Søren Angst on 05.18.22 at 1:45 pm

Statcan “wryly” quoted in its Consumer Price Index, April 2022 report:

In April, average hourly wages for employees rose 3.3% on a year-over-year basis, meaning that, on average, prices rose faster than wages, and Canadians experienced a decline in purchasing power.

I say wryly as in the No Sh!t Sherlock vein of thought.

Italia as bad though inflation went down in April.

m/m -0.1%
y/y +6% (6.5% in Mar)

Pyrrhic Victory for Italia.

#27 Captain Uppa on 05.18.22 at 1:46 pm

What I find highly irritating is the plethora of headlining articles out these days about the victims of who have three or four houses and now face financial stress.

Oh the horror!

Not only are these people distraught, they seem to expect the government to help them out. Disgraceful.

#28 Chris L. on 05.18.22 at 1:46 pm

Don’t worry, except for oil stock (individual stocks), I haven’t bought back into the market. Let’s get the timing right.

#29 Shawn on 05.18.22 at 1:46 pm

Alberta’s Oil is not Canadian’s oil

#7 Slim on 05.18.22 at 12:47 pm

Kenney and Alberta’s oil (which actually belongs to all Canadians) isn’t it.

***************************
Alberta was carved out of the North West Territorites in 1905. It was given full control and ownership of resources around 1930.

As a Canadian I would like yourstatement to be true. But it’s not. Alberta’s oil belongs to Alberta. As a long-time resident of Alberta that’s good for me.

But more specifically a lot of the oil effectively belongs to oil companies and their share owners. Hope you bought some shares.

The federal government of Canada receives not a penny in oil royalties. They do get a lot of income taxes and would get more is they did not stupidly crash corporate income tax rates to half the 1990 level. (Because otherwise the oil sands would have moved to the U.S. I guess?)

#30 Diamond Dog on 05.18.22 at 1:49 pm

I see the DOW is off by 3% and the NASDAQ is down by 4%. Again. Maybe scary Jeremy was right. :(

Those words from Powell caught my eye as well, “if we go past neutral, we won’t hesitate.” What’s neutral, 2.5… 2.75… I don’t think the economy will take more than 3.5 before something breaks, but we’ll see. We could see a brief spike to 4% though (coupled with Minsky moment still high inflation) Betting pools anyone? Gotta love these everything bubbles when they crash, bring popcorn.

Caught a few words from El Erian the last few days. “Stagflation is unavoidable”. “We’ll need a lot of luck to avoid recession”. I think we can add some prayers as well, but I’m not all that sure they would do much good. (we could still try though)

The key question is where the economy breaks. If it breaks in growth, that’s a blessing. If credit breaks… not so much. This would mean the Fed scaling back to neutral assuming it’s crossed into the wilderness by then. There will be Phoenix’s rising from the ashes in debt and equities in brief respites, but it’s not for greeners.

And housing “what were we thinking”…. “rates will never rise, the everything bubble is the new normal, we’re in the next phase of the new bull run”, yeah, yeah, wth were we talking about? If one wants moon beams, there are old hippie sanatoriums one can visit for that but it became mainstream! Bus loads of bias. Hopium. Bubble euphoria. Delusion extraordinaire. We didn’t even need drugs or cups of stupid, it was so mainline.

Well, back to farming. People still need to eat if one can grow more than gopher colonies that is. Wishing readers, bloggers and it’s host well ’til next time.

#31 willworkforpickles on 05.18.22 at 1:51 pm

“Lawyers are reporting a torrent of enquiries from recent buyers wondering how to get out of deals before closing, and also from buyers afraid their transactions will collapse – meaning they’ll be unable to buy properties they went firm on. It’s the domino-effect at the heart of all modern real estate collapses.”
…………………………………………………………………………………………………

Precisely what i said 2 years ago would happen with RE turning on a dime looking ahead 2 years from back then.
That will never happen , that can not possibly happen was the general response at that time.

Some of us here have actually seen these things before with RE freezing up on a dime. They stayed that way far longer than you non believers will weather this one.

Monetary easing will return with a vengeance if but after a short period of tightening really does occur…but move up rates will remain along with it this time setting an altered precedent in these days of unprecedented change.

I thought you were leaving, Sunshine. – Garth

#32 DON on 05.18.22 at 2:04 pm

#22 crowdedelevatorfartz on 05.18.22 at 1:32 pm
“Pepe” as opposed to PP…. because he kinda stinks…and he’s bilingual…..

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=upEn5msShdk

*********
Ah, you beat me to it…Le Pew

#33 Ponzius Pilatus on 05.18.22 at 2:08 pm

14 Bjorn on 05.18.22 at 12:57 pm
I’ve noticed that Dollar Store stock went down today due to the inflation results.
INCREASE THE RATES NOW!
High inflation decimates consumer spending.
——————————
Never mention to your friends that you shop at the Dollar Store.
I go there for my favourite “Coffeecrisp”.
Was 83 cents last time.
Gotta go now and check it out.
Will share the fruits (not the candy bar) of my reconnaissance trip shortly, as it will shed light on how much (if at all) poor people are hurting from inflation.
Boots on the ground research, it’s what it’s called.
It also will burn the calories ingested by eating said CoffeeCrisp.
Win Win, again.

#34 I’m not a doc on 05.18.22 at 2:10 pm

Re: CMHC will our gov be the biggest landlord? You will own nothing and be happy for the over-leveraged…or have a blackrock manage our new found properties…and for the rest well we will just raise the property taxes…way way to many debt slaves…

#35 Ponzius Pilatus on 05.18.22 at 2:11 pm

#32 DON on 05.18.22 at 2:04 pm
#22 crowdedelevatorfartz on 05.18.22 at 1:32 pm
“Pepe” as opposed to PP…. because he kinda stinks…and he’s bilingual…..

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=upEn5msShdk

*********
Ah, you beat me to it…Le Pew
—————————————-
Guys,
PP is already trade marked by your’s truly.
So bugger off.

#36 Søren Angst on 05.18.22 at 2:14 pm

#10 Summertime

How much of these 1.7 trillion mortgages are ‘insured’ by CHMC? Just asking.

———————-

Enough to bankrupt the Government of Canada, CMHC & near Canada itself.

Feb 2022 GDP = $2.01 trillion.
2022 Gov Canada Budget Expenditures = $190.3 billion
CMHC money in hand = $295 billion
Chartered Banks = 35% of mortgages insured, 2021
Other Financial = 39%

Avg. Cdn Mortgage Amount = $371,584 in 2021.

CMHC reserve vs. total mortgage amount:

$295 billion/$1.7 trillion = 17.3%

…falls way short of 35/39%.

———————

I worry about what financial shape the 60-65% uninsured mortgage holders are in. The great unknown.

Still, it would be Mortgage Armageddon if half or more of those insured mortgage holders walk away from their mortgages.

Then again, 2020 was Year 0 of:

Expect the Unexpected.

#37 Philco on 05.18.22 at 2:17 pm

DELETED (Violence threatened)

#38 Philco on 05.18.22 at 2:27 pm

T2 has exacerbated every problem we have. If you rely on a cheque and live on the margine your in deep doo doo.
No steak and lobster for you lol.
Anti oil idiot that he is. I hate the guy.
Headkine says.
Canada could boost oil production by 900,000 barrels a day: Kenny. Read story

Cause you will starve and freeze to death without it
Hug a barrel of oil.
See what cerb money does dumb dumbs theresno free lunch lmao

#39 Ponzius Pilatus on 05.18.22 at 2:27 pm

Where’s the Beef?
MacDonalds and Wendy’s are being hit with a class action suit.
Claiming that real burgers don’t look anywhere like the advertisements.
About time .
Hope it extends to other misleading claims like:
“12 out of 10 dentists recommend this tooth paste”.
Sailo, how do I join the suit?
Wanna make me some dough.

#40 Ustabe on 05.18.22 at 2:27 pm

#21 Linda on 05.17.22 at 4:41 pm

So what I’m wondering is, what impact does recession have (if any) on anyone who is in the fortunate position to be debt free & has a secure income stream independent from employment? If someone is retired & receiving pension income, what if any are the negative effects of a recession regarding their finances? Inflation I get – things cost more so living on a fixed income may be gnarly – but what I’m not sure of is whether a recession is anything to be worried about.

Linda, I meant to put in my 2 cents yesterday but got side tracked.

Having been though multiple of these upheavals over decades no matter what you call them, they all end. Now my being in the situation you describe also, all I can say is ignore the chaff, follow your path. Its a good time to be boring. Its not a good time to contract out that basement redo. Don’t feed the beast.

Recession, crisis, austerity, melt down, whatever label you nor I can impact its course by spending or not spending, by traveling or not. If we all stopped buying all the things that might speed it up a bit but that just isn’t going to happen.

Be aware that this comment section carries a higher than normal amount of doomers, gloomers and trolls. So take the predictions (including this one) with all that in mind.

Keep calm and carry on, eh?

#41 Søren Angst on 05.18.22 at 2:29 pm

#24 Faron

Enlighten us how your portfolio has done in the past 30 days there Mr. Inadvertent Self-Congratulatory if I do say so Myself + Bill C-16?

Even with today’s ongoing Mr. Market Bloodbath, I’m

+9.1%

Goes up in a few days when yeah oil dividends come in. Give us you last 30 days there Mr. Market Timer…

—————-

#23 Shawn

Like I said before, Move to Alberta Already! Or at least send your young adult kids.

#AlbertaAdvantage.

☃ ☃ ☃ ☃ ☃

As a former Albertan now living in Italia and without getting into the details you know all too well, my Twitter response to your admonition would be:

😆😆😆

😘 d’Italia.

#42 Chimingin on 05.18.22 at 2:29 pm

#8 – Felix – Just to balance your rhapsodizing, here’s the CVMA position statement about the hideous damage cats do to the environment and how they should be kept indoors permanently for their own health and the rest of us: https://www.canadianveterinarians.net/policy-and-outreach/position-statements/statements/free-roaming-owned-abandoned-and-feral-cats/

#43 The Regulator on 05.18.22 at 2:30 pm

#7 – Slim : So Alberta oil belongs to all Canadians? Right then. Quebec hydro belongs to who? Ontario hydro? B.C. hydro? How do Albertans have a share in Quebec hydro? What planet did you call home before settling on earth? By the way, the U.S.A. should have a share, since their companies spent time and money developing “your oil”.

#44 DON on 05.18.22 at 2:34 pm

Friend just texted me, two houses that just sold a couple of months ago are back on the market. But I thought everyone wants to live in Duncan BC.

#45 The Regulator on 05.18.22 at 2:34 pm

#8 – Felix : Have you ever heard of a dead cat bounce? Remorse? Yes, every time I read one of your posts.

#46 Pbrasseur on 05.18.22 at 2:39 pm

Remorse? This country has been there before, except each time massive stimulus and low rates came to the rescue.

That was before this little problem known as worldwide inflation. More than a few countries already on the brink of default, IMF getting busy…

This might get interesting real soon…

#47 ElGatoNeroYVR on 05.18.22 at 2:49 pm

“What happens if that is impossible and these condo buyers have no financial ability to pay on closing?”
The assignment speculators will learn that risk works both ways. Couldn’t happen to nicer people. Yes I am bitter about it as when I wanted to buy one couldn’t even find one that was not assignment sale which is just wrong.
As empirical evidence , I just checked redfin and in my the subdivision of Brentwood Mall (Burnaby) where I have a particular interest in; the new construction condos have been readjusted down 10% in price over less than one month . Still ,at $1,300 /sqft they still have room to go down .
Condos alway go down the fastest ,SFH’s tend to float a bit better .

#48 Philco on 05.18.22 at 2:50 pm

LOL
I tried to reach his office 40 times. There no one home.

You got what you voted for peeps. Good luck. The guys an idiot.
Arrogant #%^#%#&*^%#Q^%Q%#%Q&
The crap that came out of his mouth is way worse than Trumps ever.
Protester or anti vaxers are racist’s Nazis ect ect?!
I’m embarrassed of him and that was a threat I said is funny..

I’m in talks with the mayor here about the OVER BLOWN native issue. Their giving EVERYTHING to the natives now. Its a serious problem and people are getting mad as H E double hockey sticks here.
World gone mad. Changing the name of our town ect ect ect
Revolutions do work.
Apologies to you Garth.

#49 Sam on 05.18.22 at 2:57 pm

My investments in balanced funds keep dwindling lower and lower reverting back to 2018 lows. If this keeps going my returns will evaporate and I’ll be back to where I started even with dividends. What a mess these markets. They give and then take it all back.

If you are back to 2018 levels after a 16% drop in equity markets you certainly do not have a B&D portfolio. – Garth

#50 Dotcom Bubble Trouble on 05.18.22 at 3:02 pm

Is it just me or do homes and rent within the inner city of Calgary keep on climbing upward

#51 The Original Jake on 05.18.22 at 3:06 pm

Markets getting whacked today. Still think we see another 2k trimmed off the Dow which wipes away all the covid excess and pushes us temporarily into bear territory before we bottom and start recovering.

#52 Shawn on 05.18.22 at 3:08 pm

CMHC cash al leverage?

#36 Søren Angst on 05.18.22 at 2:14 pm said:

CMHC money in hand = $295 billion

CMHC reserve vs. total mortgage amount:

$295 billion/$1.7 trillion = 17.3%

…falls way short of 35/39%.

*************************************
A half second look at your post and I know you have the wrong figures.

Latest CMHC balance sheet:

Cash $1.5 billion. Equity $13.2 billion.
Loans insured are not shown on the balance sheet.

Page 39 of the annual report says insurance in force is $401 billion.

This is incredible leverage. Equity is 3.3% of the insured mortgage balance. It’s also only 4.4% of assets.

This extreme leverage has been the case for many years and all has gone well. Will it be different this time? CMHC will make good on all its obligations even if the government of Canada has to inject equity.

But don’t bet on CMHC losing money let alone all of its equity. I literally “called” the CMHC president on its low equity about 15 years ago. Spoke to I believe it was the then CEO. A woman. She did not even seem to be aware of the equity ratio . He could not tell me the number. The risk was not even on her radar. And she turned out to be right.

Predictions of doom for CMHC have been around forever. CMHC is still around and healthy.

https://assets.cmhc-schl.gc.ca/sites/cmhc/about-cmhc/corporate-reporting/annual-report/2021/cmhc-annual-report-2021-en.pdf?rev=03e65fe9-3ac7-41f3-b81e-59e831d40b82

#53 Shawn on 05.18.22 at 3:12 pm

#50 Dotcom Bubble Trouble on 05.18.22 at 3:02 pm

Is it just me or do homes and rent within the inner city of Calgary keep on climbing upward

********************
Probably yes what with oil over $110. People are now moving to Alberta. #AlbertaAdvantage.

#54 IHCTD9 on 05.18.22 at 3:14 pm

#1 Ray Skunk on 05.18.22 at 12:21 pm

House around the corner just taken a $25k haircut on asking.
_____

I’m a good two hours away from the GTA as well, and have been watching a sale down the road. It’s on re-list #2 and just over a 100K haircut. No takers yet, and they’re using a GTA Agent. Another 200K slash would have this place roughly what I think it’s worth. Time for new pics though as the original listing was when there was a foot of snow on the ground…

#55 Steven on 05.18.22 at 3:16 pm

Might be easier to just limit the stories here to…..subject matter……followed by…..we’re screwed.

Housing…..we’re screwed
Energy…..we’re screwed
Retail/Markets…..we’re screwed
Peace…..we’re screwed
Saves a lot of pixels.

#56 Barb on 05.18.22 at 3:18 pm

Who knew CBs would do as much damage to the economy as the virus…

#57 Sail Away on 05.18.22 at 3:18 pm

#39 Ponzius Pilatus on 05.18.22 at 2:27 pm

Where’s the Beef?
MacDonalds and Wendy’s are being hit with a class action suit.

Claiming that real burgers don’t look anywhere like the advertisements.

Sailo, how do I join the suit?
Wanna make me some dough.

——–

The perfect defense would be to review all of the class-actioners’ profile pics vs. their actual appearance.

Especially the ones using internet dating.

#58 willworkforpickles on 05.18.22 at 3:28 pm

“I thought you were leaving, Sunshine. – Garth”
…………………………

You keep flagging/cancelling out my posts because of our differing views on the economy.

I have made numerous projections future tense that i have said would return to go over as they unfold.

Your RE analysis is always interesting.
Your overall knowledge of registered savings accounts is your strong suite.
Your knowledge of the economy related to these very unprecedented times needs an upgrade.
You don’t agree with what i have to say because much of what i say is developing or already has behind the scenes well out of view of the mainstream.
Will you flag this post too?
I’m good to my word of toning it down some with regard to all things economy related at any rate.

#59 Mehling on 05.18.22 at 3:30 pm

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-05-18/trudeau-is-shedding-support-among-dislocated-younger-voters?srnd=premium-canada

“Trudeau Is Shedding Support Among ‘Dislocated’ Younger Voters”

One can dream…

#60 TMac on 05.18.22 at 3:31 pm

Time to start paying attention to default numbers.
Have a feeling they may be going up.
Wonder if there is an ETF for that…

#61 HUNGRY BEAR on 05.18.22 at 3:39 pm

BANNED

#62 Steven on 05.18.22 at 3:43 pm

“If we go past neutral, we won’t hesitate. This is a strong economy. We think it is well-positioned to withstand less accommodative monetary policy and tighter monetary policy.”

——————————————————————-

After the complete mess Powell, Ole Yeller, Bernake made of the financial system, you can actually believe anything that comes out of his mouth?

Strong eCONomy? To who? The 1%?????????????

Still tons of excess money in the system that needs to be reined in by 1-2 more rate hikes ad an “ATTEMPT” at QT.

The Feds still haven’t achieved their final goal yet…crash the eCONomy, buy back for nickles on the dollar, inflate to the moon 1 last time, kill off billions from starvation, war and revert back to landlord/serf.

On another subject, anyone see the clowns debate last night? Almost as embarrassing as the US Politicians doing anything to position themselves in front of a camera for a photo opp over the horrible mass murder in Buffalo….

The SAME clowns who created the wealth disparity in America, created laws that allow idiots to obtain assault rifles and voted in a 40 BILLION package of arms for Ukraine!!!! Not having a CLUE how hypocritical they are.

Getting a 10% kickback to fund their political campaigns from the gun lobby, making the poor poorer thru the FED’s policies, allowing assault weapons on the streets…and the call the 18 yr old kid a physcopath?

And you wonder who his mentors were?

Finally, sadly check out what’s happening in Sri Lanka…coming soon to many countries worldwide.

Thanks Central bankers..the true criminals of the world.

#63 Joe Lalonde on 05.18.22 at 3:45 pm

I guess investors are looking into the stocks that they’re holding as Target stocks plunges on stating it’s going to cost an extra billion dollars in freight costs and now the dominoes are falling everywhere where freight is a major cost as diesel is in short supply in this economic chain.
This is actually pretty hilarious as you notice the major companies that are noticing now that fossil fuel supplies are raising in price and not likely to go back down as more supply disruptions take effect.

#64 Screwed Blewed and Tatooed on 05.18.22 at 3:56 pm

Canadians taken to the cleaners by the politicians and realtors again.
VOTE WITH YOUR BRAINS ENGAGED

#65 Soviet Capitalist on 05.18.22 at 3:57 pm

The market is not imploding.
It may, in the future, but that remains to be seen.
At the moment, it just went from scorching hot to simply hot.

#66 Richard L on 05.18.22 at 3:57 pm

Everyone will make a fortune in residential real estate until they don’t.

Relative sold house in April with July closing. Waiting to see if it happens.

#67 PeterfromCalgary on 05.18.22 at 3:58 pm

The big news today was Walmart.

“Earnings per share came in at $1.30, missing the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.46 and declining 23% from the year-ago earnings. Revenues rose 2.4% year over year to $141.57 billion and topped the consensus mark of $138.3 billion.”

This is the main reason the [email protected] fell about 4.05% today and their is still 9 minutes of trading left.

However, I gleaned some good new in that Walmart said their customers were being more careful with their spending. Although this bad for retailers like Walmart it sort of is a leading indicator on inflation. Careful consumers means less spending and hopefully less inflation moving forward. The painful process of reducing overall demand and inflation in the economy by raising interest rates seems to have started.

#68 Albertan laid off on 05.18.22 at 4:09 pm

Did Exxon return to Alberta? As far as I know, I was laid off in 2015 because Exxon was planning to tap into the 100 billion barrels of offshore crude in South America. So far, Exxon has discovered about 15 billion barrels of oil near the disputed Venezuelan offshore Stabroek Block in Guyana.
Alison Redford went there to broker a deal with a massive oil well recently.

#69 Entrepreneur on 05.18.22 at 4:15 pm

And all so controlled. What happened to the working class economy, hmmm? Questions, critical thinking, debates and restructuring of the word “economy” is needed here.

And the restructuring of elections, and so on. The big game show.

People, today, at this moment are trying to survive, everything cost too much. How much more damage can a working individual take?

Times are tough for us, the deep pain that goes with this show. Defeated, worthless, shameful, embarressed, as this is beyond reasoning. Admit defeat but keep safe and alive. No matter what happens, be strong and hang onto your children.

Time is running out!! At least warmer weather is upon us, tenting weather. And I believe better times will come, hopefully soon.

Time to Help Thy Neighbour.

#70 crowdedelevatorfartz on 05.18.22 at 4:18 pm

@#54 IHCTD9
“Time for new pics though as the original listing was when there was a foot of snow on the ground…”

+++

The agent might want to save those “snow” pics.
It may be sitting til this time next year if mortgage rate bump another half point June 1st.

#71 DON on 05.18.22 at 4:18 pm

Via Bloomberg news

Crop Land ‘Deteriorating’ in Canada as Excess Rain Hinders Planting.

Manitoba too wet to plant while Alberta struggles with drought.
Planting woes come as weather, war threaten global output

……..Perfect storm?

#72 Franco on 05.18.22 at 4:25 pm

So what happened to the roaring 20’s? I was really looking forward to that.

Eight more years to go. – Garth

#73 Victoria on 05.18.22 at 4:29 pm

Here is Victoria people are totally in denial. I have been hearing via social media comments like – it may go down all over Canada but never in Victoria and of course the famous – RE will never go down in Victoria because everyone in the WHOLE WIDE WORLD wants to
Live here. Lol

#74 Observer on 05.18.22 at 4:30 pm

“Protester or anti vaxers are racist’s Nazis ect ect?!
I’m embarrassed of him and that was a threat I said is funny..”

Don’t recall the object of your disdain using the term “Nazis” to describe the organizers behind the Ottawa occupation and bridge blockades. He would be correct of course to refer to them as anti-vaxers and racists. Check out their bios.

#75 John Smith on 05.18.22 at 4:38 pm

Standard and Poor’s. Where poor eventually becomes the standard!!!

#76 Leftover on 05.18.22 at 4:39 pm

Are we in the eye of the hurricane? Maybe, and remember that the wind blows in the opposite direction on the other side.

Listings are up 50% in our hood but prices (aspirational?) haven’t budged yet. We’ll see.

Good thing Canadians have $300 billion in savings. If we have any brains left that cash pays off debt. Then again paying off debt doesn’t do much for GDP. I think I’m in the 35% club – recession seems inevitable.

#77 crowdedelevatorfartz on 05.18.22 at 4:42 pm

” The worst is yet to come” in BC

https://www.burnabynow.com/highlights/worst-is-yet-to-come-bc-inflation-hits-67-in-april-5381625

Crank those interest rates!

#78 Joseph R. on 05.18.22 at 4:43 pm

#68 Albertan laid off on 05.18.22 at 4:09 pm
Did Exxon return to Alberta?

—————————————————-
They never left Alberta. They are known as Imperial Oil in the oilsands (Kearl Lake) and XTO Energy for Shale and Natural gas production:

https://www.xtoenergy.com/Operations/Operating-areas/Canada

#79 Ponzius Pilatus on 05.18.22 at 4:44 pm

#7 Slim on 05.18.22 at 12:47 pm
Yesterday, the Kenney traveling clown show were at the Senate Committee on Energy and Natural Resources hearing in Washington, D.C..

Henry Kissinger once said, “America has no permanent friends, or permanent enemies, only permanent interests”.
————————————
Great Quote (a break from the usual Churchill and That her quotes).
Kissinger, is Einstein of Foreign Secretaries, in my opinion.
American self interest disguised as charity has been well documented in the history books.
The Marshall Plan, Afghanistan and of course Ukraine, are only some of the many instances where this happened.
Well, of course one could argue that self preservation and hanging on to the Top Cheese position would go a long way to explain why that is the way it is.
The only problem with that approach is, that China also has ambitions to be Numero Uno, and is acting accordingly.
And the wanna be Tsar Putin also has visions of grandeur
Figuring out who is the bad guy is not easy.
We all know that from our personal experiences.

#80 Faron on 05.18.22 at 4:47 pm

#41 Søren Angst on 05.18.22 at 2:29 pm

Bill C-16?

What are you talking about w/re C-16?

Regarding my picks. The only picks I’ve mentioned here are ACWV/XMW, VVL and XHB as a short. I’ll leave it to you to look at the relative valuations over the past 30 days. S&P is my benchmark. My primary statements are that cash gushing corps are to be held and the XHB is a proxy for housing and HELOC spending and will continue to tank. I don’t recommend this stuff to anyone, but do point out these ideas.

I hack at TWTR, TSLA and COST among others because a certain commenter here has recommended people in this comments section purchase them or at least pushes them vehemently. I’ll leave it to you to check how they’ve done since they were placed on this comments section’s radar.

Thanks for asking. RIP your TWTR position. Don’t go after me, go after Elon.

#81 Sail Away on 05.18.22 at 4:53 pm

Markets rocket, folks get giddy; markets dive, folks get gloomy.

Tranquilo. Everything will be ok. Don’t do anything rash. Buy, perhaps, but definitely don’t sell. Take a cue from the effect markets have on your dog.

#82 Squire on 05.18.22 at 4:56 pm

“There are now 68,385 realtors in the GTA. That would fill the Roger’s Centre and the Scotia Bank Arena.”

————-
How sad. The seething greed is palpable.
Rip the bandage off ! Let’s get if over with.

#83 Foldver on 05.18.22 at 5:01 pm

So the Teranet index broke a record in April ? What gives ? From their release it sounds like the market is still very hot, not cooling.

The Teranet–National Bank National Composite House Price IndexTM, covering eleven CMAs around the country, reported a 18.8% annual gain in April, breaking the record growth of 18.4% observed the previous month and in August 2021.

Year/year changes are meaningless in a declining market. That index has always been a lagging one and of no value in forecasting. – Garth

#84 crowdedelevatorfartz on 05.18.22 at 5:19 pm

@#82 Squire
“There are now 68,385 realtors in the GTA.”
+++
Thats about 68,385 too many.
Ya don’t need commissioned salespeople in the middle of everything.
Advertise on the internet.
Stick a sign in your yard,
Hold an auction.
Let the lawyers do the rest.

What was your profession before you moved into this blog and learned everything? – Garth

#85 Maud Flanders on 05.18.22 at 5:28 pm

Won’t someone PLEASE think of the overleveraged WFH Millennials who got to buy a home due to generational wealth?

#86 IHCTD9 on 05.18.22 at 5:39 pm

#70 crowdedelevatorfartz on 05.18.22 at 4:18 pm
@#54 IHCTD9
“Time for new pics though as the original listing was when there was a foot of snow on the ground…”

+++

The agent might want to save those “snow” pics.
It may be sitting til this time next year if mortgage rate bump another half point June 1st.
———-

I thought it was a fishing trip initially, but now it looks like they actually need to sell. Should be a good show.

#87 Reality Check on 05.18.22 at 5:50 pm

7 Slim

Kenney and Alberta’s oil (which actually belongs to all Canadians) isn’t it.
——————-
Actually provinces have control over development and extraction of resources. Ownership resides with the provinces.

The federal government has exerted control over resources via its powers over interprovinal and international shipments of some resources, most notably energy.

The mistaken idea that oil and gas is owned by all Canadians was the heart of the disastrous National Energy Program of the early 1980s which transfer an estimated $70 billion of oil and gas income from Alberta to Ontario consumers.

#88 jane on 05.18.22 at 5:50 pm

BoC and Trudeau were the enablers of inflation with too
much free money for too long….MISTAKES WERE MADE.

Simplistic. Try harder. – Garth

#89 crowdedelevatorfartz on 05.18.22 at 5:57 pm

“A truck! A truck! My Kingdom for a truck!

https://vancouversun.com/opinion/columnists/a-tow-truck-a-tow-truck-nation-imperilled-by-lack-of-a-tow

It doesn’t get any better than this……

#90 Slim on 05.18.22 at 6:14 pm

#43 The Regulator

Not to worry, the US will always get their share. It’s just that Jason Kenney and his “Alberta oil” just isn’t that high up on their list of priorities. Somewhere near the bottom.

#91 Reality is stark on 05.18.22 at 6:16 pm

Re-read my posts.
I spelled it all out to you years ago.
This isn’t even news.

#92 jess on 05.18.22 at 6:17 pm

lessons not learned ?

Or what is that Buffet say…
“Lose money for the firm, and I will be understanding; lose a shred of reputation for the firm, and I will be ruthless,”
so why buy citi?

https://violationtracker.goodjobsfirst.org/prog.php?parent=citigroup

…”With disclosed subsidies already at $196,920 per job ­­­­— and many more still undisclosed — this deal represents a massive transfer of wealth from Georgia taxpayers to Rivian shareholders. The typical Rivian employee will never pay that much more in state and local taxes than public services they and their families will consume.”

The $701.7 million property tax abatement

May 3, 2022

Watchdog says a generation of Georgia residents will pay higher taxes and suffer under-resourced public services
Unproven EV Builder Rivian Receives the Largest Auto Subsidy Package in U.S. History

https://www.goodjobsfirst.org/news/releases/unproven-ev-builder-rivian-receives-largest-auto-subsidy-package-us-history
==============
Deutsche Bank HQ in Frankfurt raided over suspected money laundering

Officers from financial regulator, federal police and public prosecutor raid Germany’s largest lender
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2022/apr/29/deutsche-bank-hq-frankfurt-raided-suspected-money-laundering

#93 Linda on 05.18.22 at 6:19 pm

#40 ‘U’ – Like you I’ve noticed a fair number of the doom & gloom crowd. It is all drama, all the time:) Regarding my question about recession, seems like those who are in fiscal good shape need not hit the panic button. Those who aren’t in good shape are in for a rocky ride. Given the market ructions all I can say is glad I’m on the good side of the balance sheet!

#94 Faron on 05.18.22 at 6:24 pm

#71 DON on 05.18.22 at 4:18 pm

Planting woes come as weather, war threaten global output

……..Perfect storm?

Sub-seasonal to seasonal forecasting is not at all clear-cut, so there aren’t many accurate forecasts for what will happen 3 months out. But, I’m worried about this. If two of the most important grain growers struggle, it will put the world on a very tenuous footing in many ways.

#95 Geofery on 05.18.22 at 6:35 pm

What goes up must come down

https://youtu.be/kQzkKrzpk9U

#96 Andrewski on 05.18.22 at 6:35 pm

https://globalnews.ca/news/8844919/homebuyers-remorse-canada-housing/

#97 The Regulator on 05.18.22 at 6:36 pm

The Lions share of Russian raw materials is traded via Switzerlands’ nearly 1000 commodity firms. Ukraine is demanding such firms as Vitol, Glencore, and Gunvor stop immediately. In fact, 80% of Russian raw materials such as zinc, copper, aluminium, oil and gas are traded through these Swiss firms. Shall we now ban everything Swiss? Sanction them? Dump our shares in all things Swiss? Ruble is 64.7500/U.S. $.

#98 Albertan Laid off on 05.18.22 at 6:41 pm

Remember when in 2017, mass layoff happened in Alberta?

https://environmentaldefence.ca/2017/03/14/seven-oil-multinationals-pulling-canadas-tar-sands/

#99 My Body My Choice on 05.18.22 at 6:45 pm

Real estate prices have doubled since Trudeau 2.0 took office. So a 50% correction would be appropriate.

#100 Ponzius Pilatus on 05.18.22 at 6:55 pm

Looking forward to watching the Battle of Alberta.
Watch it.
Not many Rusians on both team.
So that will keep your blood pressure down.

#101 crowdedelevatorfartz on 05.18.22 at 6:57 pm

“What was your profession before you moved into this blog and learned everything? – Garth”

+++
It wasnt sales.
:)

#102 Love_The_Cottage on 05.18.22 at 6:58 pm

Rain in the forecast for the Victoria day long weekend. Clearly the fault of Trudeau and the Bank of Canada.

#103 Quintilian on 05.18.22 at 7:06 pm

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/vancouver-broadway-plan-division-affordable-housing-density-growth-1.6451522

“Vancouver’s plan to build desperately needed high-density housing, and why not everyone is on board”

Just guess who is not on board.

Yes Crowdie”s yokel NPA party that claims to be “non partisan” but are right wing vicious, greedy, imbeciles, and marionettes doing the work for the west side upper crust NIMBY; who find doing their own lobbying undignified.

#104 Jens on 05.18.22 at 7:10 pm

Maybe a good share of those 68,385 realtors will be able to find a new job in the soon-to-be-opened Toronto Condo Vultures office?

#105 When the Whip Comes Down on 05.18.22 at 7:12 pm

Victoria – give it time, Victoria will lag, it’s on an island after all…takes awhile for people to get it.

#106 Observer on 05.18.22 at 7:13 pm

#88 jane on 05.18.22 at 5:50 pm
BoC and Trudeau were the enablers of inflation with too
much free money for too long….MISTAKES WERE MADE.

Simplistic. Try harder. – Garth

^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^

Yes, MISTAKES WERE MADE. On the other hand, many Canadians were able to continue to eat and keep a roof over their heads that otherwise would not have.

Hopefully, future governments when faced with a once in a lifetime world-wide pandemic, will learn from those mistakes, as well as be able to support Canadians faced with job loss through no fault of their own.

#107 PeterfromCalgary on 05.18.22 at 7:13 pm

It will be interesting to watch what happens to negotiated new car prices in the next few month. Rising rates mean car loans get more expensive and that will slow demand. However, Ukraine produces wire harnesses and other crucial parts which are now difficult to source.

#108 WTF on 05.18.22 at 7:15 pm

#23 “Like I said before, Move to Alberta Already! Or at least send your young adult kids”

——————————————————————-

Already living the Alberta Dream, reside in BC.

Had a conf call years go, Chicago, Van, NY, Calgary and Edmonton.

The Albertans naturally started sniping at each other hockey teams, best city whatever…..I corralled the children and carried on with biz. After the call one of the the Americans emailed me. WTF was that? Had to explain, nice people but a tad insular.

Apparently not much has changed

#109 Philco on 05.18.22 at 7:25 pm

#88 jane on 05.18.22 at 5:50 pm
BoC and Trudeau were the enablers of inflation with too
much free money for too long….MISTAKES WERE MADE.

Simplistic. Try harder. – Garth

LOL
It seem to all start when they parked that ship sideways in the suez. Then the world woke up to just in time delivery to just to dam late. Being dependent on other countries for EVRYTHING is ridiculous and a bad idea. Just ask Europe!

We should have the far majority of goods and services from Mexico and USA. WE HAVE IT ALL. We could have energy independence and security. Manufacturing everything ourselves.
Then the Pandemic then Putty lost his marbles and the idiots that were handing out free money with no oversight saddled with everyone’s a cry baby and all the stupid movements. Everyone is special now and wants a free pony.
T2 is just clueless on most levels of management…What where his credentials to be a leader???
Its just easier to drop int rates to zero and turn on the money fire hose so you can avoid a recession or depression. No one wants to sacrifice anything…to make things better.
Stainless steel kitchens and granite top counters for all.

Ill give T2 this he kind a talks better and seems to be doing a little better on the job. Its like take your kid to work week. He’s just learning as he goes. Not the guy you want running a country.
Now If you had a hard ass like me I would make tough calls and not cater to everyone because sometimes or most the time people don’t know what’s good for them at the time but they will thank you later when the dividend cheque arrive.
Globalization DOES NOT WORK.

Oh speaking of dividends we cut 100 2×6 14ft on my little saw mill today.
$5,000 worth! Gas just went up another dime.
Going greens going to kill people.
Cheers

#110 conan on 05.18.22 at 7:26 pm

Add in a little Monkey Pox problem that seems to be spreading unusually fast to the current market problems. Might be time to go buy more KN95s

#111 My Body My Choice on 05.18.22 at 7:29 pm

DELETED

#112 Faron on 05.18.22 at 7:33 pm

#122 Sail Away on 05.18.22 at 10:22 am
Greening the planet.

Consider significantly improving air quality, reducing CO2, reducing energy needs, and better protecting bonobos by the simple and elegant strategy of reducing 1/2 the current human population via starvation.

So, I originally threw up in my mouth a little when I read the above. But, fiven my hopes for a summer boat ride, shelved it.

But then, I stumbled into an article about the racist Buffalo shooting. Guess what? Sail Away’s belief stated gleefully above also appears in the shooters manifesto. Population control to benefit the earth’s ecosystems. Uh.
You know, I wasn’t linking Sail Away’s ideas to the shooter’s when I questioned the sudden appearance of the Steel dossoer article. But now there is an actual ideological connection. Amazing.

May as well ask: Sail Away, how does the “great replacement” strike you? Good people on both sides I suppose? Boat trip off?

#113 Sail Away on 05.18.22 at 8:12 pm

@Faron

Two conspiracy theorists walk into a bar. That can’t be a coincidence.

To the ideologically indoctrinated hammer, everything looks like a nail.

By the way, I’ve linked you to Isis attacks because both you and they have championed destruction of historical artifacts.

Cuckoo… cuckoo…

#114 Don Guillermo on 05.18.22 at 8:12 pm

#108 WTF on 05.18.22 at 7:15 pm
#23 “Like I said before, Move to Alberta Already! Or at least send your young adult kids”

——————————————————————-

Already living the Alberta Dream, reside in BC.

Had a conf call years go, Chicago, Van, NY, Calgary and Edmonton.

The Albertans naturally started sniping at each other hockey teams, best city whatever…..I corralled the children and carried on with biz. After the call one of the the Americans emailed me. WTF was that? Had to explain, nice people but a tad insular.

Apparently not much has changed
********
Oh right, you’re ‘Stereotype Dude’ with the phoney “I had a friend …. blah, blah … Alberta truck … blah blah … Vax freedum ” story a while back.

Apparently not much has changed.

#115 Sail Away on 05.18.22 at 8:21 pm

@Faron Nation

Good gravy, what an exhaustingly obsessive strange man you seem to be.

#116 NOSTRADAMUS on 05.18.22 at 8:23 pm

YOU AIN’T SEEN NOTHING YET.
Just wait until the mortgage fraud capital of Ontario explodes. If you are wondering where this short fused ticking time bomb is located, take the elevator up to the observation deck on the CN Tower, now get on your tippy toes and look north about 30 miles. On previous posts I have predicted the mortgage fraud will be over 100 billion dollars, MMMM — I may be light on this figure. Steady lads, hold the line.

#117 Cowtown Cowboy on 05.18.22 at 8:39 pm

#7 Slim on 05.18.22 at 12:47 pm

Yesterday, the Kenney traveling clown show were at the Senate Committee on Energy and Natural Resources hearing in Washington, D.C..

Henry Kissinger once said, “America has no permanent friends, or permanent enemies, only permanent interests”.

Kenney and Alberta’s oil (which actually belongs to all Canadians) isn’t it.
—————————————————-

Wrong, shitbird, it belongs to Albertans

Kenney just won the leadership review, let the good times roll….sorry about your house price….NOT

#118 an investor on 05.18.22 at 8:42 pm

I have developed cognitive dissonance from reading this pathetic blog.

#119 Fiendish Thingy on 05.18.22 at 8:50 pm

US 5th circuit court of appeals just ruled that the SEC has no independent regulatory authority, and can only enforce regulations via civil suits.

Prepare for US markets to undergo massive turbulence beyond what has already been seen…

#120 Regjeg on 05.18.22 at 8:59 pm

Alas, the anticipated “robust” earnings of US retailers are being reported instead as only “bust”.

TRGT down 25% today. Adjusted earnings were 28% below expectations, and 40% below y-o-y actuals. Margins are being skewered by rapidly escalating freight and transportation costs.

Consumers are pulling back in the face of higher inflation.

#121 Ponzius Pilatus on 05.18.22 at 9:00 pm

Looks like all the big shot US TV anchorman are back in their studios covering mass shootings and primary Senate races.
Just another day in the office.
Zelensky is yesterday’s news, just like the Afghan interpreters who are still waiting to be rescued.

#122 Ponzius Pilatus on 05.18.22 at 9:04 pm

I’m not sure if it’s a trend but I noticed that the grapes I’m buying are now coming from India.
Usually at this time they come from Chile.
Will we soon see some quality wines coming from India, too?

#123 Ponzius Pilatus on 05.18.22 at 9:09 pm

#107 PeterfromCalgary on 05.18.22 at 7:13 pm
It will be interesting to watch what happens to negotiated new car prices in the next few month. Rising rates mean car loans get more expensive and that will slow demand. However, Ukraine produces wire harnesses and other crucial parts which are now difficult to source.
—————-
Yep.
And now are in the hands of Putin.
Good luck.
Get some rubles.

#124 Arctic Gringo: Qalunaaq on 05.18.22 at 9:13 pm

J. Kenney steps down. Urgh, more top end turmoil.

#125 crowdedelevatorfartz on 05.18.22 at 9:28 pm

Alberta’s Kenny is done.
Stepping down after a leadership vote.

#126 Shawn on 05.18.22 at 9:31 pm

Kenney won narrowly his leadership review vote but then resigned with a gracious speech.

Now even the Kenney haters can move to Alberta. Come tonight, I’ll leave the porch light on for you.

#127 AK on 05.18.22 at 9:33 pm

“So, Americans can count on a series of tightening measures driving rates higher (US mortgages are already averaging 5.57%)”
====================================

I wish I had these rates during my mortgage years.

#128 Philco on 05.18.22 at 9:38 pm

#112 Faron on 05.18.22 at 7:33 pm

CO2 is not the problem human population is.
Go to China NOBODY cares.
There’s nobody here (Kanada) 40,000,000 nothing.
And the trillion trees cancel out a lot of issues. We replant all our timber.
All the Dumbo’s here YOUR BEING SCAMMED. Love your taxes and carbon Bull shit.
Their making you responsible for China India and all the other poulters that have no environmental laws and or management.
KANDA IS VERY CLEAN AND RESPONSIBLE.
T2 your an idiot
Now you shutter Alberta you get what you deserve $2.40 gas.
I know what I saw coming but was short on predicting price at the pump. So now Gas and energy is sky high peeps may end up burning their trees if you own any and their furniture. Go to Haiti, they burned their forest to to cook their food. I’ve been there. Terrible place.
Unintended consequences. That’s what your living with now.
Dumb and Dumber are running the show. It will take 20 years to transition to green not a month.
All this stuff is so predictable OMG.

#129 crowdedelevatorfartz on 05.18.22 at 9:39 pm

@#103 Quinty’s questionable quotes
“Yes Crowdie”s yokel NPA party ”

+++
I live in Burnaby. Been living here for decades.
I worked in downtown Van for decades.
I have no vote in bankrupt Vancouver’s self delusional navel picking.
I watch the Vancouver City Clowncil political circular firing squad with bemused disbelief.

Mayor Kennedy Stewart has announced, ” Any renters displaced by new rental construction ( a massive understatement considering that 10’s of THOUSANDS of existing rental units may be torn down to build highrise towers) will be able to rent in the new apartments for the SAME RENT OR LESS”

Does anyone really believe that utter horses**t?
Why would any developer sign on to build a tower in these inflationary times …..to lose money.

Political grandstanding by the mayor.
There’s an election in Nov.
Stewart is making promises he knows he cannot keep.

#130 Ponzius Pilatus on 05.18.22 at 9:43 pm

#126 Shawn on 05.18.22 at 9:31 pm
Kenney won narrowly his leadership review vote but then resigned with a gracious speech.

Now even the Kenney haters can move to Alberta. Come tonight, I’ll leave the porch light on for you.
—————
Haha,
I waiting for your Tesla to arrive.
Can I sleep in it then?

#131 Quintilian on 05.18.22 at 9:50 pm

#126 Shawn on 05.18.22 at 9:31 pm
“Kenney won narrowly his leadership review vote but then resigned with a gracious speech.

Now even the Kenney haters can move to Alberta. Come tonight, I’ll leave the porch light on for you.”

No Thanks, Shawn. I commend you for your boosterism, and as much as I love visiting Alberta, you can turn the porch light off, just like how sometimes your economy shuts off with the speed of light.

Your economy strengthens the argument that balance and diversity are a must.

Your dependence on oil is an infinite cycle of boom and bust; given that commodities are well known for extreme volatility.

It wasn’t long ago that a barrel of oil was less than $.0000; granted it didn’t stay at that for long.

But I can’t recall any other commodity dropping into negative territory.
Long term prospects for Alberta are not good, unless you diversify.

#132 WTF on 05.18.22 at 9:50 pm

#114

So PASSIONATE those Mexican Albertans,
Admit it, you wish you lived in BC

Yeeee haw, git er done amigo!

#133 T-Rev on 05.18.22 at 9:53 pm

Market slowing but not stopping in Alberta. Commodity prices high, jobs are back in a big way. Spoke with a realtor friend today, says he’s seeing lots of action still. Little slower than 6 weeks ago, but still way better than normal compared with a 5 year average.

#134 I don't know on 05.18.22 at 9:54 pm

#65 Soviet Capitalist on 05.18.22 at 3:57 pm
The market is not imploding.
It may, in the future, but that remains to be seen.
At the moment, it just went from scorching hot to simply hot.

-Correct. There is no implosion, not even close. Nor will there ever be. The market was uncomfortably hot the last few years, and now the expected rate hikes are doing their job in dampening demand to something more normal.

It’s just like how the stock market got ahead of itself and now needs to blow off the excess and return to more normal valuations. A repeat of 2008? Covid 2.0? Not even close.

Are there instances of over-leveraged investors getting caught with their pants down? Of course. Buyers who didn’t do their due diligence and who are now having second thoughts? Yep. But they don’t represent the majority of the market.

This is particularly true if you took our host’s advice and locked in for five years at rock bottom rates, or, if you have proper portfolio allocations. If you did that, go back to sleep.

IDK

#135 crowdedelevatorfartz on 05.18.22 at 9:56 pm

So if Russia can ban the CBC from their country for “biased reporting”…..

https://www.thestar.com/politics/federal/2022/05/18/russia-shuts-down-cbcs-moscow-bureau-in-retaliation-for-canadas-ban-of-its-state-broadcaster.html

Why can’t we do the same?

#136 morrey on 05.18.22 at 10:15 pm

“Oh my, What have we done?”
-Garth

very good question! the slaughter won’t be pretty

#137 Faron on 05.18.22 at 10:17 pm

#128 Philco on 05.18.22 at 9:38 pm
#113 Sail Away on 05.18.22 at 8:12 pm
#112 Faron on 05.18.22 at 7:33 pm

CO2 is not the problem human population is.

Uh, no. Facts are that y’all babbling about “magical” population reductions as some kind of solution to ecological problems share that with a racist killer’s manifesto. Does that mean you are racist killers? No. But pointing at a humanitarian disaster and noting only that it will help the world’s problems is ghoulishly callous.

If seeing that for what it is makes me cuckoo, that’s fine with me. I’d prefer not to be your kind of “sane”.

#138 Shawn on 05.18.22 at 10:19 pm

Can Canada act like a closed dictatorship

#135 crowdedelevatorfartz on 05.18.22 at 9:56 pm
So if Russia can ban the CBC from their country for “biased reporting”…..

https://www.thestar.com/politics/federal/2022/05/18/russia-shuts-down-cbcs-moscow-bureau-in-retaliation-for-canadas-ban-of-its-state-broadcaster.html

Why can’t we do the same?

**********************************
Read the headline you pasted in. We already banned their broadcasts. Free speech anyone? Apparently not if we disagree with the free speech.

#139 Ustabe on 05.18.22 at 10:21 pm

#113 Sail Away on 05.18.22 at 8:12 pm

@Faron

Two conspiracy theorists walk into a bar. That can’t be a coincidence.

To the ideologically indoctrinated hammer, everything looks like a nail.

By the way, I’ve linked you to Isis attacks because both you and they have championed destruction of historical artifacts.

Cuckoo… cuckoo…

I’ve walked past the discount bin of my local in store bakery and have seen 50% off sweaty day old bagels in a plastic bag that have more self awareness than you on your best day.

You should start reading your insult replies out loud into your bathroom mirror. Work on it, you talking to me?

You talking to me?

You talking to me?

Go all Robert Di Niro on Faron, not this grade school stuff

#140 roger on 05.18.22 at 10:38 pm

@ #106 Observer

Has nothing to do with keeping meals on the table blah blah…I agree with jane…they knew before Christmas that inflation was a problem and rates didn’t budge…pandemic was over by then…should have been tightening sooner.

#88 jane on 05.18.22 at 5:50 pm
BoC and Trudeau were the enablers of inflation with too
much free money for too long….MISTAKES WERE MADE.

Simplistic. Try harder. – Garth

^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^

Yes, MISTAKES WERE MADE. On the other hand, many Canadians were able to continue to eat and keep a roof over their heads that otherwise would not have.

Hopefully, future governments when faced with a once in a lifetime world-wide pandemic, will learn from those mistakes, as well as be able to support Canadians faced with job loss through no fault of their own.

#141 Shawn on 05.18.22 at 10:38 pm

Alberta should diversify

Quintilian at 131 said:

Long term prospects for Alberta are not good, unless you diversify.

********************************
In economics it usually tales some kind of competitive advance to do really well.

For Alberta that was and is oil and natural gas.

It will NEVER be wind or solar. The wind blows most places and the sun shines mot places and electricity is expensive to transport and we don’t have the transmission lines out to any great extent.

Next advantage might be what was it hydrogen? We shall see.

For now, Alberta must make hay while the sun shines on the oil industry.

And it’s not the governments job to diversify. Industry (meaning individual companies) would need to do that on its own. ‘Tis how capitalism works. Subsidies to attract business are an abomination.

#142 2025 on 05.18.22 at 10:39 pm

What happens in 2025 when PP gets elected PM and fires Tiff Macklem to nationalize the Bank of Canada in his image?

#143 KLNR on 05.18.22 at 10:41 pm

some things never change eh.
I see this comments section is still chock-full of doomers, conspiracy theorists and petty albertans.
carry on.

#144 Cowtown Cowboy on 05.18.22 at 10:41 pm

Oops spoke a minute too soon…God help us if we go with another Jeezus freak, 4yrs of dipper rule will seal the fate of this country..Let’s go Oilers!

#145 Sail Away on 05.18.22 at 10:51 pm

@Ustabe

Old man yells at cloud.

Apparently spring makes you grumpy. Much like summer, fall and winter.

It’ll be ok. I’m on your side, big fella.

#146 crowdedelevatorfartz on 05.18.22 at 10:53 pm

@#138 Shawn
“Read the headline you pasted in. We already banned their broadcasts. ”

+++
Irony escapes you.
I dont care about Russian Television.
I want to ban the CBC……

#147 THE DANDADA on 05.18.22 at 11:11 pm

If I buy a stock on margin and the market crashes it triggers a “margin call” and I have to either sell at a loss or top up the account with cash.

If I buy a house and the housing market crashes and suddenly my mortgage is “under water” and I just keep on making my mortgage payments and the bank doesnt care.

One day I’ll own the house outright and it will be worth something. The stock can go to zero once the officers get caught cooking the books.

First, don’t buy single stocks. Second, mainstream equities almost never go to zero so exaggeration makes you look extreme. Third, don’t use margin. Fourth, your upside-down mortgage might not be renewed and in a crashed RE market the asset could become illiquid. Now you are seriously pooched. At least a publicly-traded financial security can always be sold. Think a little more, then type. – Garth

#148 Ponnaps on 05.18.22 at 11:21 pm

My realtor says, will the BoC jeopardize the entire real estate and mortgage industry by increasing rates by another 50 bips.. what do I tell her?

Tell her it’s time to hand in the Audi keys. – Garth

#149 Sail Away on 05.18.22 at 11:41 pm

#137 Faron on 05.18.22 at 10:17 pm

Does that mean you are racist killers? No.

———-

There you go jumping to conclusions again. How do you know we’re not racist killers?

Sheesh.

#150 DON on 05.19.22 at 12:09 am

#147 THE DANDADA on 05.18.22 at 11:11 pm
If I buy a stock on margin and the market crashes it triggers a “margin call” and I have to either sell at a loss or top up the account with cash.

If I buy a house and the housing market crashes and suddenly my mortgage is “under water” and I just keep on making my mortgage payments and the bank doesnt care.

One day I’ll own the house outright and it will be worth something. The stock can go to zero once the officers get caught cooking the books.

First, don’t buy single stocks. Second, mainstream equities almost never go to zero so exaggeration makes you look extreme. Third, don’t use margin. Fourth, your upside-down mortgage might not be renewed and in a crashed RE market the asset could become illiquid. Now you are seriously pooched. At least a publicly-traded financial security can always be sold. Think a little more, then type. – Garth

***********

Tell me you already knew this DANADA.

#151 DON on 05.19.22 at 12:25 am

#134 I don’t know on 05.18.22 at 9:54 pm
#65 Soviet Capitalist on 05.18.22 at 3:57 pm
The market is not imploding.
It may, in the future, but that remains to be seen.
At the moment, it just went from scorching hot to simply hot.

-Correct. There is no implosion, not even close. Nor will there ever be. The market was uncomfortably hot the last few years, and now the expected rate hikes are doing their job in dampening demand to something more normal.

It’s just like how the stock market got ahead of itself and now needs to blow off the excess and return to more normal valuations. A repeat of 2008? Covid 2.0? Not even close.

Are there instances of over-leveraged investors getting caught with their pants down? Of course. Buyers who didn’t do their due diligence and who are now having second thoughts? Yep. But they don’t represent the majority of the market.

This is particularly true if you took our host’s advice and locked in for five years at rock bottom rates, or, if you have proper portfolio allocations. If you did that, go back to sleep.

IDK

***********

It only takes a few over leveraged folks to start a rush to the exits…and the majority is affected. The show ain’t over yet and we are not in Kansas anymore.

You don’t know…but you will learn. Or just click your shoes three times and everything will be ok.

We have bigger issues then your precious house losing unsustainable paper gains.

In tough times your house is only worth as much as the comparable sale. Better hope there are no forced sales in your neighbourhood.

Blank Stare…

#152 Outrage on 05.19.22 at 12:37 am

The BOC is lying that interest rates are 6.8% . Nobody believes them, its more like 8% or 9%. If they want to fight inflation they would raise them at least 8%. The bloodbath continues, get out of the stock market while you can. Good luck.
As Victoria home prices, I could see a 5% to 10% correction. Not a big deal because of the wages in Victoria.

#153 Midnight’s on 05.19.22 at 2:05 am

Well,
9 Caffeine Monkey on 05.18.22 at 12:50 pm
Isn’t it funny how years of policies like empty homes taxes, speculation taxes, money laundering investigations, and foreign buyers taxes failed to dent housing prices, and then all it took was a measly half point interest rate increase to instantly implode the market. I’m sure some people will still find a thinly-veiled xenophobic way to blame foreigners for all this, but I’m afraid that the facts seem to indicate that this all our own fault.

I think this blog has been saying that for a few years. – Garth

Since you quoted Steve, you might as well go all in, lol

https://youtu.be/LKHHpTXk6dk

What was that he was saying, lol?

#154 Faron on 05.19.22 at 2:29 am

#149 Sail Away on 05.18.22 at 11:41 pm

#137 Faron on 05.18.22 at 10:17 pm

How do you know we’re not racist killers?

Sheesh.

Having established that you and I are of differing races (me white, you Hispanic) by your claim not mine, then I guess we’ll find out on our July cruise, won’t we?

#155 Faron on 05.19.22 at 2:41 am

#139 Ustabe on 05.18.22 at 10:21 pm

LOL

Speaking of bagels, here’s my B+D recipe for a high hydration whole-enough wheat bread:

60% unbleached white
40% whole wheat
80% water
20% liquid starter (fermented 1:1 flour/water)
2.7% salt

1) Whisk water into starter reserving 5% portion of water
2) Whisk in the whole wheat flour and let stand for 40 mins
3) Mix in remaining flour and fold by hand until roughly mixed
4) Autolyse for 45 mins
5) Mix in salt and reserved water until incorporated
6) Wait 30 mins then fold dough 3-4 times
7) repeat step 6 six times
8) Pop dough in the fridge 12 to 24 hours
9) Shape into as many 1kg loaves as you have mix for
10) When fully proofed, bake at 450 F in a steamed oven for 25 minutes
11) Rotate loaves and bake a further 20-25 minutes until done.

Savour the self-awareness

#156 under the radar on 05.19.22 at 5:14 am

In 32 years the few mortgages I have seen not being renewed are usually because there is a history of late payments , chronic realty tax arrears, CRA notices . People who never miss a payment get renewed , almost always.

Back in Sept my client bought for a June closing. Seller had remorse and offered 100k to buyer to sign a release. Looked like seller would breach, fast forward to today and Seller is behaving and can’t wait too close.

Some sales I have looked at in the past 8- 12 months were head shakers. Junk post war bungalows in Mimico or Scarborough 1. 5, east end Hamilton wood one-story 900k, cookie cutter Vaughan subdivision 2 story over 2.5 million. Nowhere for these prices to go but down . Funny how the rising cost of money sobers people up.

#157 I don’t know on 05.19.22 at 6:01 am

138 Shawn on 05.18.22 at 10:19 pm

“Free speech” has limits. You cannot incite violence or be inflammatory to the point that it is dangerous or purposefully detrimental to the social cohesion of the country.

We know foreign actors use social media to drive division in our country. Think of all the gullible who fall for the tired left right divide, or urban rural divide propaganda. Or worse yet, people who disagree with whatever government policy to such an extent that they fall for the same drivel and spout nonesense conspiracy theories.

The Ukraine war is as cut and dry a situation that exists. It’s an invasion of a democratic sovereign state with the sole aim of subjugation.

Aside from the disgusting violence that has occurred, which should make any rational human pause and come to the same conclusion, but any foreign (or domestic) news source that has a bias so thick it reports the war in any positive light has zero place in Canada.

It’s that simple.

IDK

#158 Fortune500 on 05.19.22 at 6:55 am

Yes real estate is down but let’s not ignore the markets. Wow, no winners anywhere. And don’t hold your breath for the Fed put or a v-shaped recovery. This looks like it will last for some time. Years? A decade? Seems very possible from what I am seeing.

#159 Summertime on 05.19.22 at 7:23 am

The news about sharply increasing CPI in April with expected even higher in May came out and as expected there is not even a word from BoC about the topic, dog forbid emergency meeting to increase immediately the rates for example, oh no, instead of that we have a total silence as now they are running out of excuses like transitory, peak inflation etc.

Besides that, one wonders if they are having the happy dance behind the scenes as the current inflation spike as their doing is going pretty well.

I am sure they sleep well like babies knowing that their policies ‘work’.

Foolish comment. Rates go up again on June 1st. – Garth

#160 Love_The_Cottage on 05.19.22 at 7:42 am

#141 Shawn on 05.18.22 at 10:38 pm
And it’s not the governments job to diversify. Industry (meaning individual companies) would need to do that on its own.
________
But a smart government would diversify their tax base. Having gone through the boom/bust cycle multiple times a 2% provincial sales tax just makes too much sense.

#161 TurnerNation on 05.19.22 at 8:16 am

Supply Chain. Haha? Nothing to see here.
This wag on twitter:

[email protected] Remember when those pesky “conspiracy theorists” warned about collateral damages of lockdowns, vaccine passports, supply chain issues, technocrat power grabs, high inflation, digital ID, CBDCs and social credit systems? The conspiracy theorists have become conspiracy realists.

.Food, shelter push inflation in Canada to 6.8% in April: Statistics Canada (globalnews.ca)


— Control over travel. Yup yup trapped in the crowded, fetid “UN Smart Cities.
But you are free to leave at any time…

[email protected] Paris just announced plans to ban private cars in the city centre.

.Globe editorial: Is it time to end Canada’s last remaining COVID travel restrictions? (globeandmail.com)

.Japan to allow limited tour groups from May as step to full re-opening (news.yahoo.com)

#162 IHCTD9 on 05.19.22 at 8:19 am

#116 NOSTRADAMUS on 05.18.22 at 8:23 pm

YOU AIN’T SEEN NOTHING YET.
Just wait until the mortgage fraud capital of Ontario explodes.
___________

It’ll be interesting to see to what extent those “BM’s” have percolated, and how they will play out. Probably all B lenders. Can’t see the big Banks getting surprised with holding a boatload of BM’s. Well, I sure hope not. Lots of uninsured mortgages out there now too, like sneaking up on double of what there were 10 years ago.

Anyway – looks like the day of reckoning is here…

#163 Senator Bluto on 05.19.22 at 8:19 am

Am I the only one who sees the irony in a freedom award being used as grounds for being thrown in jail?

Regardless of your views of protest, this just looks bad on the international stage.

#164 crowdedelevatorfartz on 05.19.22 at 8:39 am

@2025
“What happens in 2025 when PP gets elected PM and fires Tiff Macklem to nationalize the Bank of Canada in his image?”

+++
You forgot to include that we will all dance around a bonfire of all our paper money as bitcoins jingle in our pockets…..

#165 Summertime on 05.19.22 at 8:53 am

Foolish comment. Rates go up again on June 1st. – Garth

The sense of urgency is missing in their words and actions. 0.5 % in June will do nothing in fighting inflation as with it the rates will be 1.5 % far lagging inflation.

The CB rate is not a commercial lending rate. Have you learned nothing from this site? – Garth

#166 OK, Doomer on 05.19.22 at 8:59 am

#148 Ponnaps on 05.18.22 at 11:21 pm
My realtor says, will the BoC jeopardize the entire real estate and mortgage industry by increasing rates by another 50 bips.. what do I tell her?

Tell her it’s time to hand in the Audi keys. – Garth

+++++++++++++++++++++++++

Audis don’t have keys anymore Garth. They have dongles. Get with the tech.

You should have said “She need to get dangling on dropping off the dongle”

#167 Sail Away on 05.19.22 at 9:18 am

#154 Faron on 05.19.22 at 2:29 am
#149 Sail Away on 05.18.22 at 11:41 pm

How do you know we’re not racist killers?

Sheesh.

———-

Having established that you and I are of differing races (me white, you Hispanic) by your claim not mine, then I guess we’ll find out on our July cruise, won’t we?

———-

I am American-Canadian by way of Venezuela (Venezacan) and consider all men my brothers.

Unfortunately, my Sri Lankan brothers went woke and may be facing a starvation event entirely of their own making.

It’s possible my African-American brother Elon may choose to save them in the same way he earlier fixed world hunger, Flint water and Ukrainian communications. Selfless is He.

My freedom award-winning brother Tamara is being persecuted at the highest levels for ‘wrong think’. Keep her in your prayers.

My salty brother Ustabe has declared that you may be not only my brother, but my offspring! Fruit of my loins, if you will. Part of the Sail Away bloodline.

#168 crowdedelevatorfartz on 05.19.22 at 9:52 am

@#166 Doomer
“You should have said “She need to get dangling on dropping off the dongle”

+++

Are you allowed to say “dongle” on a family blog?

#169 TurnerNation on 05.19.22 at 9:54 am

Life in Kanada. Get ready to elect your next Globalist-backed leader T3, or PP? Does it matter?
These types are the ones who backed the anti-human “Rules” — like banning your haircuts, and the armed interprovincial checkpoints (QC-ON).
“For your health” of course. Just a taste of the power flex. Ain’t going away you gave it away.
Next up more continued global control over our Travel/Movement, Feeding, and Breeding.

How’s that hospital capacity? Yet another region where the “field hospitals” were never used. So why is this still going in mid 2022?

New York made 11M bottles of hand sanitizer. Now it has 700,000 gallons it can’t get rid of.
(politico.com)
“Nearby the pallets of hand sanitizer at a state emergency training facility near Utica are 89 new HVAC systems that were supplied by the Federal Emergency Management Agency for pop-up Covid care facilities in 2020 that were never used.”

#170 Penny Henny on 05.19.22 at 10:00 am

#73 Victoria on 05.18.22 at 4:29 pm
Here is Victoria people are totally in denial. I have been hearing via social media comments like – it may go down all over Canada but never in Victoria and of course the famous – RE will never go down in Victoria because everyone in the WHOLE WIDE WORLD wants to
Live here. Lol
//////////////////

Even the homeless, so I hear.

#171 Observer on 05.19.22 at 10:01 am

#167 Sail Away on 05.19.22 at 9:18 am

“My freedom award-winning brother Tamara is being persecuted at the highest levels for ‘wrong think’. Keep her in your prayers.”

^^^^^^^^^^^
LMFAO! These are the kind of comments that reveal you are not nearly as intelligent as you try to portray yourself.

The following charges don’t involve “wrong think” but rather “wrong doing”: mischief, counselling mischief, obstructing police, counselling to obstruct police, counselling intimidation, and intimidation by blocking and obstructing one or more highways.

#172 Observer on 05.19.22 at 10:07 am

#163 Senator Bluto on 05.19.22 at 8:19 am
Am I the only one who sees the irony in a freedom award being used as grounds for being thrown in jail?

Regardless of your views of protest, this just looks bad on the international stage.

^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^

The irony is the so-called “freedom” award, not the criminal charges. Give your head a shake.

#173 Dharma Bum on 05.19.22 at 10:12 am

I began my working life in a recessionary and inflationary environment. The early eighties.

I was newly married, renting an apartment, and pretty much just making ends meet while getting my bearings in the working world and life in general.

The TV and radio were blasting a barrage of economic doom and gloom. I would hear it, but I didn’t really feel it. I was kind of a happy idiot (just struggling for the legal tender**) – working, earning some money, being independent, newlywed, having fun, and generally oblivious to the ways of the world.

One day while on my commute, I heard a guest on a radio talk show pontificating about the state of the economy, and he advised people to “make yourself recession proof”.

That somehow got my attention – and I listened intently.

Points gleaned from that advice:

* Get into a routine of financial discipline
* Pay yourself first
* Spend less than you make
* Save and invest
* Pay off debt ASAP
* Avoid assuming new debt
* Live below your means
* Accumulate the largest “emergency fund” you can
* Pay cash for stuff if you need stuff
* Pay off your credit cards in full always
* Stay the course and keep up your investing and saving
* Don’t ever try to keep up with the Joneses

Hmmmmm…recession proof. That term resonated with me, and I still remember it almost 40 years later.

Guess what?

It worked.

Common sense and discipline.

** https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ii8lB82L8wc

#174 Chris L. on 05.19.22 at 10:16 am

DELETED

#175 Summertime on 05.19.22 at 10:23 am

The CB rate is not a commercial lending rate. Have you learned nothing from this site? – Garth

Commercial lending rate is a derivative of Central banks rate, the later heavy influences and drives the commercial banks rates.

Emergency BoC meeting to increase rates immediately would instill some confidence in their actions.

At this point with rates at 1 %, no urgency to increase it outside of the planned dates, and real inflation exploding, I have no confidence in them.

Plus BoC clearly stated that rate increases will be limited by the state of the housing market, i.e. we will not see rates higher than 3 % (as the most likely ceiling) while expectations now are that even the official CPI will stay above 6 % at least until the end of the year. I.E we have and will continue having strongly negative interest rates.

So the conclusion is that CB rhetoric is just a tongue exercise, nobody fights inflation with negative real rates.
Just noting that their lack of urgency is only enforcing that.

The CB did not state there was a limit on rate increases related to real estate. The evidence has been published here. You clearly do not understand the role of a central bank. Take some time to absorb that before commenting further. – Garth

#176 Observer on 05.19.22 at 10:24 am

#146 crowdedelevatorfartz on 05.18.22 at 10:53 pm

I want to ban the CBC……

^^^^^^^^^^^^^
As commercial news continues experiencing structural and financial issues, media scholar Victor Pickard, the C. Edwin Baker Professor of Media Policy and Political Economy and Co-Director of the Media, Inequality & Change Center at the Annenberg School for Communication, advocates for a promising alternative: increased government investment in nonprofit and public media.

Scholarship by Pickard and others finds that public media has myriad social benefits, including more diverse news coverage, increased public knowledge about politics and public affairs, and lower levels of extremist views.

Building on this, a new study co-authored by Pickard and Timothy Neff, reveals that countries with independent and well-funded public broadcasting systems also consistently have stronger democracies.

The study, “Funding Democracy: Public Media and Democratic Health in 33 Countries”, shows that while other democracies have recognized the value of public media systems, America is a major outlier. Despite having the world’s largest gross domestic product, America spends a comparatively miniscule fraction—less than half of a percent—on public media funding.

https://penntoday.upenn.edu/news/asc-public-media-can-improve-our-flawed-democracy

#177 Mehling on 05.19.22 at 10:29 am

One of the World’s Frothiest Housing Markets Turned Into a Seller’s Headache Overnight

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-05-19/one-of-the-world-s-frothiest-housing-markets-turned-into-a-seller-s-headache-overnight?srnd=premium-canada

#178 Shawn on 05.19.22 at 10:38 am

Diversify the Alberta economy?

#160 Love_The_Cottage on 05.19.22 at 7:42 am

#141 Shawn on 05.18.22 at 10:38 pm
And it’s not the governments job to diversify. Industry (meaning individual companies) would need to do that on its own.
________
But a smart government would diversify their tax base. Having gone through the boom/bust cycle multiple times a 2% provincial sales tax just makes too much sense.

**************************
Central planning, sounds like a great idea?

#179 Crystal ball futurist on 05.19.22 at 10:47 am

The market is finding it’s new equilibrium. Sanity returning:

Currency creation during COVID is being accounted (Inflation)
RE speculation due to low rates is being accounted
Stock market speculation due to cheap money is being accounted

Some predictions for the future:
Salaries will rise
RE will correct till prices in most neighborhoods are 3.5xPre tax family income
Second and third quarter earnings will be higher and Stocks will adjust to historic PE levels
Debt service levels have to become manageable personal, corporate and Govt.

#180 Ponzius Pilatus on 05.19.22 at 10:56 am

#157 Should know better
The Ukraine war is as cut and dry a situation that exists. It’s an invasion of a democratic sovereign state with the sole aim of subjugation.
—————————
For the spoils, my friend, for the spoils.
Just like the thousands of other wars that have been waged during human history.
And you’d think we’d have learned by now.

#181 millmech on 05.19.22 at 11:00 am

https://www.msn.com/en-ca/money/topstories/experts-see-parallels-between-1970s-inflation-crisis-and-today/ar-AAXqRoy?ocid=msedgntp&cvid=4d94024db0614a14a0edb05880e7c71b

#182 millmech on 05.19.22 at 11:25 am

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/business/article-mortgage-heloc-loan-changes-interest-rates/

#183 Drewfor on 05.19.22 at 11:46 am

“You don’t agree with what i have to say because much of what i say is developing or already has behind the scenes well out of view of the mainstream.”

Sounds like an ‘edgy’ teenager.

I think you need to remove your head from your ass.

#184 Drewfor on 05.19.22 at 11:58 am

“Read the headline you pasted in. We already banned their broadcasts. Free speech anyone? Apparently not if we disagree with the free speech.”

Someone apparently doesn’t understand what free speech is.

#185 cropgrower on 05.19.22 at 12:01 pm

Haha, funny how you guys are worried about crop seeding conditions in two provinces, and you forgot to mention the main one. I’ll give you a hint…….it’s the one in-between.

#186 Quintilian on 05.19.22 at 12:05 pm

#178 Shawn on 05.19.22 at 10:38 am
“Central planning, sounds like a great idea?”

Not a good idea, that is what the Market Economy, “lais·ser faire” proponents affirm.

Until like the millionaire gentlemen farmers need government handouts.

Or speculators demand negative interest rates.

Or the land baron hillbilly/politicians in Hicksville want a paved highway.

#187 Faron on 05.19.22 at 12:10 pm

#167 Sail Away on 05.19.22 at 9:18 am
#154 Faron on 05.19.22 at 2:29 am

Plz see dfn 3b thx.

#188 crowdedelevatorfartz on 05.19.22 at 12:14 pm

@#176 Observer
“…others finds that public media has myriad social benefits, including more diverse news coverage, increased public knowledge about politics and public affairs, and lower levels of extremist views.

…..reveals that countries with independent and well-funded public broadcasting systems also consistently have stronger democracies.”

++++
“Lower levels of extremist views”
Seems like the politics in Canada is more polarized and extremist than ever before….Did 70 years of CBC help or hinder that or is it just the last decade of CBC social awareness lecturing?

“Stronger Democracies”
I guess thats why people that donated to the Truckers protest had their bank accounts seized?
And the Emergency Measures Act was declared?
They couldnt find any tow trucks so they declared an Emergency?

https://vancouversun.com/opinion/columnists/a-tow-truck-a-tow-truck-nation-imperilled-by-lack-of-a-tow

#189 Summertime on 05.19.22 at 12:26 pm

You clearly do not understand the role of a central bank. Take some time to absorb that before commenting further. – Garth

I highly respect your view. But the cry of the stomach is lauder than the voice of reason, looking at the changes in grocery and energy prices… it becomes very hard to ignore the facts and pretend that all is rosy and the authorities are doing a good job and in expedient and professional way.

#190 IHCTD9 on 05.19.22 at 12:30 pm

#171 Observer on 05.19.22 at 10:01 am

… counselling intimidation, and intimidation by blocking and obstructing one or more highways.
_____

Now wait just a gall dang minute here bro…

Just a few days a go you were singing the virtues of intimidating SCOTUS Judges into a producing for yourself a “positive result”

Now you’re crying because others did the same thing?

Can’t have it both ways homie. Try intellectual honesty. It’ll look good on you, I promise.

#191 Squire on 05.19.22 at 12:32 pm

#177 Mehling on 05.19.22 at 10:29 am
One of the World’s Frothiest Housing Markets Turned Into a Seller’s Headache Overnight

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-05-19/one-of-the-world-s-frothiest-housing-markets-turned-into-a-seller-s-headache-overnight?srnd=premium-canada
—————————
Good article. More interesting is that it was published in the Bloomberg USA edition. Why are we afraid of the truth in Canada ?
It’s not 2017/ 2018 again. I think something worse is coming, more like 1989/ 1990

#192 Sail Away on 05.19.22 at 12:35 pm

#187 Faron on 05.19.22 at 12:10 pm
#167 Sail Away on 05.19.22 at 9:18 am
#154 Faron on 05.19.22 at 2:29 am

Plz see dfn 3b thx.

———

Thanks! One good turns deserves another.

Plz see ‘Resentful Stalker’; also maybe ‘Incompetent Suitor’:

https://www.fighterlaw.com/7-different-types-of-stalkers/

#193 WTF on 05.19.22 at 12:40 pm

#141

“For Alberta that was and is oil and natural gas.

It will NEVER be wind or solar. The wind blows most places and the sun shines mot places and electricity is expensive to transport and we don’t have the transmission lines out to any great extent.”

,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,

“these wind farms produce enough electricity annually to power 625,000 homes, about nine per cent of Alberta’s electricity demand.”

“Alberta has always required renewables to compete for the lowest cost outcome, making the province, arguably, one of the most exciting places in the world to invest in renewables.”

https://businessincalgary.com/month-and-year/march-2019/albertas-wind-energy-industry/#:~:text=Today%2C%20Alberta%20ranks%20third%20in%20Canada%20with%2C%20according,about%20nine%20per%20cent%20of%20Alberta%E2%80%99s%20electricity%20demand.

Annnd from this year, WTF? production has increased

https://medicinehatnews.com/news/local-news/2021/12/10/wind-capacity-about-to-outweigh-coal-in-alberta/#:~:text=A%20new%20wind%20farm%20near%20Seven%20Persons%20will,fact%20utility%20sector%20observers%20called%20an%20important%20milestone.

Dude, Maybe stay in your lane, whatever that is……

#194 Olivia on 05.19.22 at 12:47 pm

Can’t even drive to work and back home in peace without having to worry about getting carjacked now.

TPS needs to get off their butt and work.

$100k a year per cop just for Toronto crime to skyrocket, shootings and sexual assault in broad daylight. Insane.

#195 DON on 05.19.22 at 1:18 pm

#185 cropgrower on 05.19.22 at 12:01 pm
Haha, funny how you guys are worried about crop seeding conditions in two provinces, and you forgot to mention the main one. I’ll give you a hint…….it’s the one in-between.
***********

If you are talking about the article I posted…the headline only spoke to Alberta and Manitoba. Is Sask experiencing a drought or flooding at the moment. The point is not a good time considering what is currently going on around the World.

#196 crowdedelevatorfartz on 05.19.22 at 1:24 pm

Hmmm.
Did the Libs panic?
And now are lying to cover their Butts?

The National Post:
It emerged this week that no actual police called on the federal government to invoke the Emergencies Act to crush Freedom Convoy blockades, despite Public Safety Minister Marco Mendicino’s repeated contention that the unprecedented measure was law enforcement’s idea. In recent testimony, both the RCMP and the Ottawa Police – the two primary agencies tasked with clearing Freedom Convoy blockades – have confirmed they didn’t request the act. When Mendicino was pressed Tuesday on why he kept saying the exact opposite, the minister replied that the invocation still had a “very strong consensus among law enforcement”.

#197 Shirley Biscuit on 05.19.22 at 1:38 pm

What if rates don’t go up on June 1st because too many homeowners complained to their elected officials that they can’t afford an extra $50 a month in mortgage payments?
This country would rather cut social assistance rates & tell handicapped amputees that the best social assistance is a job.

Elected officials do not set interest rates. – Garth

#198 Shawn on 05.19.22 at 1:45 pm

Wind and Solar?

#193 WTF on 05.19.22 at 12:40 pm
#141

“For Alberta that was and is oil and natural gas.

It will NEVER be wind or solar. The wind blows most places and the sun shines mot places and electricity is expensive to transport and we don’t have the transmission lines out to any great extent.”

,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,

“these wind farms produce enough electricity annually to power 625,000 homes, about nine per cent of Alberta’s electricity demand.”

“Alberta has always required renewables to compete for the lowest cost outcome, making the province, arguably, one of the most exciting places in the world to invest in renewables.”

*******************************
Oil and gas are exported and bring in money.

Wind and solar electricity will never be exported to any great extent.

You are right that wind and solar are generating a material and growing part of Alberta’s electricity needs.

Alberta imports many many things. You need exports to pay for the imports. Wind and solar will never replace those export dollars.

#199 50 YEARS OF MAPLE LEAF INCOMPETENCE! on 05.19.22 at 1:46 pm

#194 Olivia on 05.19.22 at 12:47 pm
Can’t even drive to work and back home in peace without having to worry about getting carjacked now.

TPS needs to get off their butt and work.

$100k a year per cop just for Toronto crime to skyrocket, shootings and sexual assault in broad daylight. Insane.

____________________________________

See how life in the Torontoilet is so awesome, Olivia!!

Save all your money for slanty semis, Make Believes Tickets and life insurance, and your family will be rich after you’re killed there!

WINNING!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

#200 Satori on 05.19.22 at 1:50 pm

#173 Dharma Bum on 05.19.22 at 10:12 am
….common sense and discipline.
——————————
Amen. Unfortunately common sense and discipline, are not so common.

#201 KNOW IT ALL on 05.19.22 at 1:56 pm

There’s got to be a better way.

#202 Quintilian on 05.19.22 at 2:07 pm

Shawn, better hope that the BOC can actually tame inflation, otherwise at this rate, it may end up that the costs may not make it feasible to extract oil from the sands.

In BC it was coal. Crowdie’s corrupt party, ended up selling it to the Japanese at less than cost under the pretext of increasing exports. Of course the taxpayer subsidized the exports.

Alberta can’t afford that.

#203 IHCTD9 on 05.19.22 at 2:08 pm

#194 Olivia on 05.19.22 at 12:47 pm
Can’t even drive to work and back home in peace without having to worry about getting carjacked now.

TPS needs to get off their butt and work.

$100k a year per cop just for Toronto crime to skyrocket, shootings and sexual assault in broad daylight. Insane.
___

Toronto is on a record breaking pace for violent crime this year.

Don’t blame the TPS – they can’t even put cuffs on someone and stuff them in the back of a cruiser anymore without getting sued, suspended, investigated, inquired, shamed, doxed, protested, and featured on the CBC. I wouldn’t blame them a bit if they decided to just chill at Timmies until quitting time. Why risk losing a good gig by trying to do your job?

Post-Trudeau Canada will look nothing like the Canada of decades past. If the RE market severely corrects and we land in a recession – look out. Financial hardship, and wokeology driving crime into the red zone. Enjoy GTA’ers.

#204 Faron on 05.19.22 at 2:11 pm

#192 Sail Away on 05.19.22 at 12:35 pm
#187 Faron on 05.19.22 at 12:10 pm

Well, I appreciate you operating within the framework I have constructed for you! Analogous to how engineers have to operate within the frameworks constructed for them by scientists. Or succinctly and eloquently this.

#205 Ponzius Pilatus on 05.19.22 at 2:20 pm

#194 Olivia on 05.19.22 at 12:47 pm
Can’t even drive to work and back home in peace without having to worry about getting carjacked now.

TPS needs to get off their butt and work.

$100k a year per cop just for Toronto crime to skyrocket, shootings and sexual assault in broad daylight. Insane.
————————
Olivia, darling.
I feel for you.
I think you’re a prime candidate for WFH.
This way, you don’t have to drive.
2 hour commutes are no fun anyway.
Save lots of money, and walk when necessary.
Oh, forgot you might get mugged.

#206 Squire on 05.19.22 at 2:23 pm

#194 Olivia on 05.19.22 at 12:47 pm
Can’t even drive to work and back home in peace without having to worry about getting carjacked now.

TPS needs to get off their butt and work.

$100k a year per cop just for Toronto crime to skyrocket, shootings and sexual assault in broad daylight. Insane.
——————–
You can blame a lot of this on the woke progressive assault of Police services and defund the police collateral damage.

#207 IHCTD9 on 05.19.22 at 2:24 pm

#196 crowdedelevatorfartz on 05.19.22 at 1:24 pm

When Mendicino was pressed Tuesday on why he kept saying the exact opposite, the minister replied that the invocation still had a “very strong consensus among law enforcement”.
_____

I’m fairly convinced Trudeau has his entire caucus under pain of death should any of them ever produce a damaging sound bite.

He also must think every Canadian who draws breath has the IQ of a yard of compost.

#208 crowdedelevatorfartz on 05.19.22 at 2:35 pm

@#203 IHCTD9
“Don’t blame the TPS – they can’t even put cuffs on someone and stuff them in the back of a cruiser anymore without getting sued, suspended, investigated, inquired, shamed, doxed, protested, and featured on the CBC. I wouldn’t blame them a bit if they decided to just chill at Timmies until quitting time. Why risk losing a good gig by trying to do your job?”

++++

Yep.
Defund the police and release criminals the same day with a “promise to appear”
Doesn’t seem to reduce crime.
Funny that.

#209 Shawn on 05.19.22 at 2:36 pm

Oil Sands could be uneconomic

#202 Quintilian on 05.19.22 at 2:07 pm
Shawn, better hope that the BOC can actually tame inflation, otherwise at this rate, it may end up that the costs may not make it feasible to extract oil from the sands.

In BC it was coal. Crowdie’s corrupt party, ended up selling it to the Japanese at less than cost under the pretext of increasing exports. Of course the taxpayer subsidized the exports.

Alberta can’t afford that.

**************************************
In theory that could happen and it looked like it might when oil tanked in 2020.

Cape Breton was once a big coal exporter. The coal is still there but today they produce no coal. It’s uneconomic. A warning for Alberta.

But right now things look very rosy for the oil sands. Inflation is not a big deal when oil is $100. Plenty of profit.

But the Alberta government would be wise to bank some cash and pay down the debt.

#210 IHCTD9 on 05.19.22 at 2:37 pm

#202 Quintilian on 05.19.22 at 2:07 pm

Shawn, better hope that the BOC can actually tame inflation, otherwise at this rate, it may end up that the costs may not make it feasible to extract oil from the sands.
_____

Inflation does not increase the difficulty with which oil is extracted. It’s going down all the time actually. More oil in less time for less input.

When there is inflation, it’s usually party-time for Oil prices.

#211 Observer on 05.19.22 at 2:37 pm

#190 IHCTD9 on 05.19.22 at 12:30 pm
#171 Observer on 05.19.22 at 10:01 am

… counselling intimidation, and intimidation by blocking and obstructing one or more highways.
_____

Now wait just a gall dang minute here bro…

Just a few days a go you were singing the virtues of intimidating SCOTUS Judges into a producing for yourself a “positive result”

Now you’re crying because others did the same thing?

Can’t have it both ways homie. Try intellectual honesty. It’ll look good on you, I promise.

^^^^^^^^^^^^^
“Just a few days a go you were singing the virtues of intimidating SCOTUS Judges into a producing for yourself a “positive result”.

Not exactly and you know it because we hashed this out already over several comments more than just a “few days ago”, which as I recall left you looking quite dumb.

It’s sad – and yet also amusing – that you are still so upset I won that debate, you feel the need to bring it up again.

Regardless, way to go to deflect from my comment to SailAway, dissing his support of Tamara Lich. I’m assuming that got you angry, thus your whataboutism that was totally off the mark and lacking in the thing you claim to detest “intellectual honesty”.

Too funny. Thanks for the laugh.

#212 WTF on 05.19.22 at 2:56 pm

Alberta imports many many things. You need exports to pay for the imports. Wind and solar will never replace those export dollars.
—————————————————————
Deflection,

That statement contains nothing related to what you unequivocally asserted regarding alternative energy sources and transmission capacity in Alberta. Completely incorrect in fact.

#213 Dogman01 on 05.19.22 at 3:26 pm

Bloomberg reporting Huawei will be banned from 5G in Canada!

Nice to see some sanity from this Govt.

#214 millmech on 05.19.22 at 3:27 pm

https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/egypt-hikes-rates-again-tackle-153226101.html

https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/fed-plow-ahead-half-point-190011066.html

#215 Penny Henny on 05.19.22 at 3:27 pm

#194 Olivia on 05.19.22 at 12:47 pm
Can’t even drive to work and back home in peace without having to worry about getting carjacked now.

TPS needs to get off their butt and work.
///////////////////

With all these recent car jackings you would think that there would be a description of the assailants, but no.

#216 IHCTD9 on 05.19.22 at 3:30 pm

#211 Observer on 05.19.22 at 2:37 pm

Not exactly and you know it because we hashed this out already over several comments more than just a “few days ago”, which as I recall left you looking quite dumb.

________

Hmmm… let’s review what you actually said:

*** #113 Observer on 05.03.22 at 10:12 am

… Good for the clerk for leaking that document. If it intimidates the court into changing its mind, that can only be a good thing.***

Hmmm…. well yes, it looks like you said exactly that – doesn’t it?

Yes, you tried to walk back your statement, but nobody was buying it. Now you’re mad because I keep bringing it back up.

Homie – that’s the problem you’re gonna have when you don’t own your mistakes. The other guy is going to slap you around with them from here until eternity, and he’s going to be having a ball every time you try to wriggle out of it (like you are right now)

: )

#217 Dr V on 05.19.22 at 3:45 pm

190 IHCTD9

Re: Observer

It’s no use IHC. You cant hit a moving target! And even if you do it just moves again…..

#218 jess on 05.19.22 at 4:24 pm

it was not too long the world was “awash”in gas

““The industry is a victim of its own success,” said Devin McDermott, an analyst at Morgan Stanley. “You don’t just have oversupply in the U.S. — you have oversupply in Europe, oversupply in Asia, and really oversupply across the globe.”

https://www.worldoil.com/news/2020/1/17/america-is-awash-with-natural-gas-and-it-s-about-to-get-worse
============
Timiraos: “A Number of people have suggested to me the one thing that might slow you down or at least make this much more difficult would be some kind of market cataclysm. I wonder, in part, if that is why you are trying to be more transparent, not erratic, making sudden moves on your policy moves.

My question there is, where’s your level of concern that financial stability and controlling inflation by raising interest rates, maybe a lot, might be fundamentally incompatible in that raising rates causes financial disruption, but doesn’t actually bring inflation under control? Where is your level of concern around that situation?”

Powell: “I don’t see that happening. We monitor a very broad range of financial conditions, and we’re doing that now, we’ll keep doing that. Different cycles look different. Sometimes the tightening takes place in one market, sometimes in another, sometimes in credit spreads, sometimes in all of them. So we’re watching them all as a group. Volatility has been up a little bit, that has some effect on liquidity in some markets. Nonetheless, the markets are orderly, they’re functioning. I think they’re processing the way we’re thinking – the way the FOMC is thinking about policy – pretty well. And I think the idea, again, is to have financial conditions tighten to the point where growth will moderate but still be positive, but moderate to the point where supply and demand can get back in alignment, and where we can get inflation back down to two percent. I see that broadly working pretty well right now. Obviously, there are some volatile days in volatile markets. But, so far, I see us getting through this fairly well.”
================

the fed chair is an experienced “vulture”?

https://wallstreetonparade.com/2020/05/the-feds-chair-and-vice-chair-got-rich-at-carlyle-group-a-private-equity-fund-with-a-string-of-bankruptcies-and-job-losses/

November 2018, Peter Whoriskey and Dan Keating of the Washington Post penned a devastating critique on how Carlyle had handled its investment in a chain of nursing homes known as HCR ManorCare, which filed for bankruptcy in March of 2018. The authors wrote that there was a 29 percent rise in serious health code violations at HCR ManorCare in the years before the bankruptcy and following a 2011 financial deal that “extracted $1.3 billion from the company” for Carlyle investors while saddling the nursing home chain with debt. Under the same deal, most of the company’s real estate was sold off, forcing it to now pay rent to the new owners. Hundreds of layoffs of employees occurred soon after, leaving the vulnerable residents neglected according to the article.

#219 jess on 05.19.22 at 4:35 pm

hum…are these two pastors connected /and from alberta who supported the truckers and anti vax mandates?

Doug Ford’s Government Gave Oil Company Run by Members of Secretive Religious Sect Millions of Dollars for Face Masks

Other companies run by members of secretive religious sect were recently linked to a £2 billion PPE controversy in United Kingdom

https://pressprogress.ca/doug-fords-government-gave-oil-company-run-by-members-of-secretive-religious-sect-millions-of-dollars-for-face-masks/

https://pressprogress.ca/anti-union-lobby-group-has-received-millions-of-dollars-from-doug-fords-government-since-2021/