In times of trouble

.
  By Guest Blogger Sinan Terzioglu
.

Since 2010 CNBC has run over 100 episodes of its Special Report “Markets In Turmoil” with the most recent one aired a few days ago.  With the S&P 500 down  approximately 13% in the first four months of the year, the 4th worst start to a year in US market history, it’s not surprising to see the media at it again, inducing fear and making investors feel like this time is different.

If history is any guide this market storm is just like every other one, and will pass.  In the year after the 100+ times that CNBC ran its Markets In Turmoil episodes the broad US equity market has had a positive return 100% of the time with an average return of 40%. While the market can easily be lower in the following twelves the probability of it being significantly higher in a few years is very good.

Volatility is never easy.  Nobody likes to see the value of their portfolios drop but if you own a balanced and diversified portfolio that holds a combination of government bonds, investment grade corporate bonds, preferred shares and growth ETFs that contain the world’s most profitable corporations, the biggest risk is not what the markets will do but what you will do and the potential of you deviating from a well-constructed long term plan.

The pain of paper losses makes many feel like the right thing to do is to stop the portfolio bleeding by going to cash and then getting back in when the headlines are better. But as the famous UK-based fund manager Terry Smith says when it comes to market timing there are two types of people: 1) those that cannot time the markets; 2) those that do not know that they cannot time the markets.  Missing just the 10 best days of any decade has resulted in a significantly lower average annual return so you are much better off to stay out of your own way.

Have Confidence In Your Holdings

So long as valuations and growth projections are fair, all balanced and diversified portfolios should hold ETFs that have allocations to the most profitable corporations in the world. In the US this can be accomplished by having an allocation to the S&P 500 index which holds the 500 largest companies in the US by market cap.

Currently 5 companies – Apple, Microsoft, Amazon, Alphabet/Google and Meta/Facebook – account for over 25% of the index.  While this level of concentration is a bit of a concern they have become heavy weights for good reason.  Collectively they have no net debt and have generated record free cash flow of $300 billion+ in the last twelve months up from $100 billion 2017.  They earn an average 25% on their capital employed and are returning tens of billions of dollars a year to shareholders.  These companies are a big part of the success of the S&P 500 over the last decade and I am confident they will continue to help the index get back to all-time highs in the years ahead as their projected growth is still very healthy.  This is not a time to be afraid of owning ETFs which have allocations to companies such as these.

Over the years our big 5 Canadian banks have proven how resilient they are.  Following the financial crisis of 2008-2009 they were recognized as some of the strongest banks in the world and since then they have only gotten stronger.  Our banks earn returns on their equity of 15%+ – a fair bit higher than all the largest banks around the world. Their balance sheets are amongst the strongest globally and they’re very shareholder-friendly as they reward their stockholders with dividend increases most years.

Banks such as Scotia and BMO have been paying dividends to their common shareholders every single year since the 1800’s.  They have never missed a single payment even during the Great Depression, both World Wars and all the recessions over the last 150+ years.  Our banks continue to grow at a healthy pace and have been expanding their wealth management divisions globally so they continue to diversify their businesses geographically and not be as reliant on the Canadian economy.  With a such long history of profitability and a proven track record of weathering economic storms and times of war this is not a time to be afraid of owning Canadian ETFs that hold our big 5 banks.

All balanced portfolios should include an allocation to preferred shares, especially rate reset preferred shares at this time of the interest rate cycle because their dividends will get reset high as interest rates rise.  When preferred shares are held in non-registered accounts holders will benefit from the Canadian dividend tax credit resulting in a higher after-tax yield than interest bearing bonds held in non-registered accounts.

An underappreciated fact about Canadian preferred shares is their excellent credit quality because every single penny of preferred share dividends must be paid before a single penny of dividends are paid to common shareholders.  If your preferred share ETF holds the preferred shares of Canada’s most profitable corporations such as the Canadian banks and you know they have never missed a payment on their common shares then you should have full confidence that they will not miss a dividend payment on your preferred shares.  Diversified Canadian preferred share ETFs hold the preferred shares of companies such as Fortis, Brookfield Asset Management, BCE and Enbridge which all have long histories of consistent dividend payments through many economic cycles.  This is not a time to be afraid of holding a basket of preferred shares of companies with stable and predictable earnings.

100% of Market Corrections Have Been Recovered

Since 1928 the average intra-year drawdown for the S&P 500 has been ~16% so what we are experiencing right now is not out of the ordinary.  Going back to the market top of 2007 the S&P 500 is up ~9.70% a year (including dividends) despite:

·         2008-2009 financial crisis
·         2010 flash crash
·         2011 European debt crisis
·         2011 US credit rating cut
·         Double dip recessions fears in 2012
·         2014 Ebola outbreak
·         2015 China Yuan devaluation
·         Worst December (2018) since the Great Depression
·         Fasted ever 35% decline in March 2020

Most years there seems to always be worries that the media makes us feel like this time is the different but the reality is what drives markets over the long term is corporate profit growth and profits have been very healthy recently and will very likely continue to be over the next few years.  The fundamentals of the largest companies are as strong as ever.  Even after experiencing the first pandemic of our lives the US  market is up over 20% from the highs before the COVID crash.

Don’t Be Distracted

Market drawdowns often feel like they will last a long time but in realty most have not lasted very long.  Since 1950, the S&P 500 has undergone three dozen corrections and 22 of these have found their bottom within 104 days.  Only on 7 occasions since 1950 has a correction lasted longer than 288 days, and it’s only happened twice since 1982 (the bursting of the tech bubble in 2000-2001 and the 2008-2009 financial crisis).

Since 1960 the S&P 500 has only gone 3 months without making an all-time high 30 times.  So while the market can drop further from here worrying about it and letting your portfolio value be your only feedback mechanism is not productive to you reaching your long term financial goals.

As Garth says, so long as you are balanced and diversified there are times to feel good about your portfolio and there are times to ignore it and this is one of those times.  The very best thing you can do right now so that you stay on track to achieving your long term financial goals is to add to your portfolio and continue adding whenever you can.  The next best thing you can do is to tune out the financial media.

Sinan Terzioglu, CFA, CIM, is a financial advisor with Turner Investments, Private Client Group, Raymond James Ltd.  He served as vice-president of RBC Capital markets in New York City and VP with Credit Suisse in Toronto.

 

88 comments ↓

#1 Anne in NV on 05.13.22 at 12:42 pm

What does IHTC9 mean????

#2 Ponzius Pilatus on 05.13.22 at 12:45 pm

In Times of Trouble.
Mother Mary always comes to me.
Speaking words of wisdom.
Let it be!

#3 Flop… on 05.13.22 at 12:54 pm

#131 IHCTD9 on 05.13.22 at 8:41 am
#111 Flop… on 05.12.22 at 10:16 pm
I’ll tell ya right now, if I could lactate, I would use the milk to make my own delicious Icecream, not feed it to some kid…
M47BC
—————-
Human milk ain’t the best tasting stuff Flop.
Way too sweet, like the residual milk in your bowl after finishing off some honey nut cheerios. Probably still better than formula though.

/////////////////////////

You’re too late Trackie.

I brainstormed all night with my crack marketing team and have a brand name ready for my male breast milk flavoured Icecream.

Flop Drops…

M47BC

#4 Doug in London on 05.13.22 at 12:56 pm

I’ve been reading predictions in the paper about how it’s not time to invest yet, as the markets will fall further. Maybe so, but I think it’s beautiful music to the ears of someone who likes to get a good deal. If you have a big weighting in cash, it’s time to start buying. Did I hear someone, probably Warren Buffet, say buy low, sell high?

#5 DON on 05.13.22 at 1:11 pm

Hey Sinan

Facebook could face trouble…it is an old persons app. No kids in my circle use it. By the way anyone was older than 30 is considered a boomer. I could see facebook fading. I haven’t been on face book since 2010.

#6 Arctic Gringo: Qalunaaq on 05.13.22 at 1:11 pm

I knew it!

Garth finally took the Hog to Port Dover.

#7 Faron on 05.13.22 at 1:13 pm

Wow, how much of a supplicant does one have to be to be an apologist for a guy who just whacked a position of yours for 10%? I wonder how Soren Angst is feeling about it right now?

#8 Søren Angst on 05.13.22 at 1:14 pm

In times of trouble.

—————–

I swear, if anyone links to “Let it Be”, I’ll nag you for eternity.

I will.

Great day for me except for TWTR. Never, ever again will I single stock pick.

Never.

Ever.

#9 Sail Away on 05.13.22 at 1:17 pm

Good post, Sinan, thanks!

Let’s call this Happy Friday the 13th. Although I unfortunately have one sick (but recuperating) dog, the rest of the pack and I will celebrate with an extra Mt. Benson workout today, which is my favourite, easily-accessed excursion- a continuous run/walk cadence just below redline for the 700m climb, then turn around and book it down as fast as possible. Such satisfying masochism.

#10 Dave from Edmonton on 05.13.22 at 1:18 pm

Dear Mr. Terzioglu, a perfectly timed article (blog) on such an important topic. I love reading all that you write, it’s not only reassuring but relaxing to finish, especially this Friday. Thank you once again for reassuring everyone, including me, to just chill and ride this out.
It’s Friday the 13th, enjoy your weekend everyone !!!

#11 Doug in London on 05.13.22 at 1:18 pm

Oh dear, am I upset! I was hoping to score some more good deals but see the markets have gone up again. I’ll blame it on Friday the 13th. Speaking of which, to take my mind off how upset I am, maybe I’ll join all those bikers in Port Dover today.

#12 Dr V on 05.13.22 at 1:21 pm

Thank you for your voice of reason Sinan.

Not selling anything without immediate redeployment at
the moment.

133 Penny – Thanks, ZEB looks like a great choice.
Anything I have with Canadian banks in it is still basically even, or waaayy in the green, so no problems
holding while I sort out some other considerations. Have a little cash in case it all plops.

#13 Dr V on 05.13.22 at 1:23 pm

3 Flop “Flop Drops…”
———————————

Eeeeeeuuuuuwwww!!!!!!!

#14 Søren Angst on 05.13.22 at 1:27 pm

In times of trouble.

—————–

Qui durat, illam vincit. *

Since time immemorial.

+11.49% past 30 days with my Threadbare Portfolio incl. dividends, higher if it weren’t for damn TWTR – habere infinitum.

Some obese 18-40% annualized dividends coming in the next 2 weeks.

yeah Maple

yeah yeah oil

#15 dan_dare on 05.13.22 at 1:30 pm

Great post! Thanks!

I mostly come on this site to read Garth’s musings, and to read the bickering between Faron and Chas…

But Sinan has great wisdom too!

#16 Søren Angst on 05.13.22 at 1:37 pm

#7 Faron

Nobody moves. Nobody gets hurt. 😘

Ya. That was the Ndrangheta kiss of… for you.

Just kidding. Still up a healthy amount past 30 days. Counting my blessings. And some nice cashflow coming this month.

Pro’s can laugh all they want at my Threadbare Portfolio exploits, but I’m happy.

In the end, that’s what matters.

—————–

You know Faron, I used to like Elon.

Not any more.

#17 Yung Investor on 05.13.22 at 1:37 pm

Is cryptocurrency still a hedge against inflation? Should I HODL my 99.96% losses of my car money? Are there any $50 cars on sale on Autotrader?

#18 crowdedelevatorfartz on 05.13.22 at 1:38 pm

Happy Triskaidekaphobia Day Sinan!

#19 Cottagers STAY THE HELL AWAY! on 05.13.22 at 1:43 pm

Don’t come to Port Dover you parasites!

Just.

Stay.

Home.

#20 Felix on 05.13.22 at 1:50 pm

And the best way to avoid volatility in your home is to not have useless dogawful mutts around you.

Happy Feline Friday!

Did you know:

Cats have a unique “vocabulary” with their owner — each cat has a different set of vocalizations, purrs and behaviors.

Cats have up to 100 different vocalizations — dogs only have 10. (It’s an IQ issue, of course)

#21 HUNGRY BEAR on 05.13.22 at 1:52 pm

Buy The F’n Dip!
BTFD!!

#22 Sail Away on 05.13.22 at 1:58 pm

#8 Søren Angst on 05.13.22 at 1:14 pm
In times of trouble.

—————–

I swear, if anyone links to “Let it Be”, I’ll nag you for eternity.

I will.

Great day for me except for TWTR. Never, ever again will I single stock pick.

Never.

Ever.

———

Haha. Why didn’t you sell when it blinked back to black last week?

https://youtu.be/bVeVMFlwUb8

#23 My Body My Choice on 05.13.22 at 1:59 pm

Good advice. When the markets tank, don’t look at your portfolio every single day.

The Canadian banks ALWAYS bounce back. During the last week, I got some RBC and NA cheap (low P/E ratios). Both banks are buying back their own stocks.

Stock market corrections or crashes are an ideal time to pick up bargains.

#24 Sean on 05.13.22 at 2:10 pm

All fair points, and facts.

Maybe I’m delusional but I believe what some have said since 2008 and that is the next crisis will be crisis of sovereigns, not of dot coms or mortgage securities. If that happens then this time it could be different.

Samsung Electronic just announced a 20% price hike. And they aren’t the only ones.
It doesn’t look like they think much of those 0.5% hikes!
They must be thinking: I’m hiking my prices 20%, but you do your own math to see if a 50bps hike can stop a 10% inflation…

#25 Alberta Ed on 05.13.22 at 2:16 pm

Reassuring words, much appreciated.

#26 Kurt on 05.13.22 at 2:33 pm

#1 Anne in NV

I second your curiosity.

What *does* IHTC9 mean????

#27 Sinan Terzioglu on 05.13.22 at 2:33 pm

#5 DON – Thanks for your comment. Facebook certainly could face trouble but there are plenty of other extremely profitable companies in the index that can take its place. That’s the great thing about market cap weighted indices like the S&P 500 as winners can run and carry more weight – Sinan

#28 Ustabe on 05.13.22 at 2:34 pm

@ Flop: Ice cream is too expensive all down the line, each step needs freezer capabilities so distribution is expensive.

So what you need is Flop Cheese.

#29 Jens on 05.13.22 at 2:36 pm

Canadian banks are “some of the strongest banks in the world and since then they have only gotten stronger.”

Just as with big telecom, I can’t help reading this as: “Canadian banks are among the most successful at ripping off their customers.” Just think of the mortgage terms and conditions they get away with!

Oh well, at least they’re “very shareholder-friendly”…

#30 Linda on 05.13.22 at 2:39 pm

Sinan, a good talking off the ledge post today. Always good to reassure the nervous!

#31 TMac on 05.13.22 at 2:58 pm

Also doesn’t hurt to short crypto right now as well.

#32 Dr V on 05.13.22 at 3:02 pm

All the major central banks are “dealing with private debt and housing affordability issues but if anyone can pull off neutral – and beyond – then it’s got to be the BoC,” Scotiabank’s Holt said.

https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/investors-bet-bank-canada-setting-100515921.html

#33 Stroller on 05.13.22 at 3:20 pm

The banks have profit margins of 15%. They are situated in a country that has the largest allotment of invincibly ignorant financial consumers on the planet.

Coincidence?

#34 Sail Away on 05.13.22 at 3:21 pm

A standard joke in the US is to say that there is no way to tell the difference between an American and a Canadian. If you get any significant reaction, you are probably talking to a Canadian.

#35 The Regulator on 05.13.22 at 3:25 pm

# 20 – Felix : Dogs are always happy to see their human, elated even. Cats? Not so much. Such loyalty! Dogs want to spend ALL their time hanging out with their human, unlike creepy felines. Felines only come around when they want something, how selfish of them. And the little catnip fiends have addictive personalities, and don’t hesitate to bite and/or sink their claws into their “owner” when it fancies them. }:€
Dogs won’t embarrass themselves by pooping in a box either, btw.

#36 crowdedelevatorfartz on 05.13.22 at 3:28 pm

@#19 Cottagers stay the hell away

You prefer Bikers?

https://www.thespec.com/news/hamilton-region/2022/05/13/port-dover-friday-the-13th-bikers.html

#37 Eco Capitalist on 05.13.22 at 3:41 pm

@#1 Anne in NV

If you meant IHCTD9, that’s:

International Harvester Company TD-9, a bulldozer.

#38 Dr V on 05.13.22 at 3:53 pm

158 Doug in L

“In March 2020 I was scooping up stocks and equity ETFs when they were on sale. Over the next 2 years I sold some off, and now have been buying back some utilities, REITs, bank stocks, uranium ETFs, and other assets that are on sale again and NO BITCOIN. None whatsoever.”
———————————————–

I have done similar, and suspect many others on this
blog as well.

#39 Penny Henny on 05.13.22 at 4:04 pm

#26 Kurt on 05.13.22 at 2:33 pm
#1 Anne in NV

I second your curiosity.

What *does* IHTC9 mean????

//////////////

I- I
H- Hear
T- The
C9- Signs

#40 The Regulator on 05.13.22 at 4:13 pm

# 20 – Felix : Evil cat list :

# 10 – Mr. Bigglesworth from Austin Powers.
# 09 – Azreal (angel of death) from the Smurfs.
# 08 – M.A.D. cat from Inspector Gadget.
# 07 – Snowbell from Stuart Little.
# 06 – The Cheshire cat from Alice in
Wonderland.
# 05 – Lucifer in Cinderella.(wicked manipulator)
# 04 – Garfield (serial Odie abuser and glutton).
# 03, 2, 1 : Mel Gibskin, Paul Nudeman, and
Skindiana Jones of mini-me fame.
Special mention : Sylvester (homicidal tweety bird stalker) stupid and bloodthirsty loser.

#41 Neo on 05.13.22 at 4:15 pm

History is never a guide to the future.

I believe it was an investment advisor who once said. “Past performance is no guarantee of future results.”

It is a better guide than the present. – Garth

#42 B from Q on 05.13.22 at 4:18 pm

Dolce,
Ti sposti à Bologna? (Moving to Bologna?)

https://corrieredibologna.corriere.it/bologna/politica/22_marzo_29/bologna-patente-digitale-cittadini-virtuosi-punti-premi-un-app-tutti-servizi-5a861258-af3a-11ec-9372-638361423a51.shtml

#43 IHCTD9 on 05.13.22 at 4:44 pm

#3 Flop… on 05.13.22 at 12:54 pm
#131 IHCTD9 on 05.13.22 at 8:41 am
#111 Flop… on 05.12.22 at 10:16 pm
I’ll tell ya right now, if I could lactate, I would use the milk to make my own delicious Icecream, not feed it to some kid…
M47BC
—————-
Human milk ain’t the best tasting stuff Flop.
Way too sweet, like the residual milk in your bowl after finishing off some honey nut cheerios. Probably still better than formula though.

/////////////////////////

You’re too late Trackie.

I brainstormed all night with my crack marketing team and have a brand name ready for my male breast milk flavoured Icecream.

Flop Drops…

M47BC
——

Ah, a name perfectly timed with the current RE and stock markets!

Make sure it’s got a bitter aftertaste :).

#44 Dave on 05.13.22 at 5:01 pm

IHTC9 is
international harvester tc9 caterpillar

#45 Mr. Subtlety on 05.13.22 at 5:02 pm

#2 Ponzius Pilatus on 05.13.22 at 12:45 pm

In Times of Trouble.
Mother Mary always comes to me.
Speaking words of wisdom.
Let it be!

—————-

Well, Horace Greeley said “Go West, young man” but did you listen? No, you had to see the cesspool of GTeh firsthand!

#46 IHCTD9 on 05.13.22 at 5:02 pm

International
Harvester
Corporation
Tracked
Diesel
9 (Model)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7Tztj9lZLus

(Mine”s yellow)

#47 piazzi on 05.13.22 at 5:04 pm

a better stat is how long after main media talks about market in turmoil, does the market actually bottom?

#48 Flop… on 05.13.22 at 5:19 pm

#13 Dr V on 05.13.22 at 1:23 pm
3 Flop “Flop Drops…”
———————————

Eeeeeeuuuuuwwww!!!!!!!

//////////////////////////

Don’t worry Doc, the dinosaurs on this blog shouldn’t be affected much.

A slick marketing campaign, with the catchy name in place, the under 35 crowd will most likely be my main customers.

Word on the grapevine is they buy anything.

The youngsters will eat it up…

M47BC

#49 an investor on 05.13.22 at 5:27 pm

“The first panacea for a mismanaged nation is inflation of the currency; the second is war. Both bring a temporary prosperity; both bring a permanent ruin. But both are the refuge of political and economic opportunists.”

Ernest Hemingway

#50 Satori on 05.13.22 at 6:03 pm

Thank you Sinan!! always enjoy your posts!
Ahhhh…one can Exhale. :D

#51 Faron on 05.13.22 at 6:46 pm

#16 Søren Angst on 05.13.22 at 1:37 pm

You know Faron, I used to like Elon.

Not any more

Sorry you got roped in. Still could work out as a win if you want to risk keeping that capital frozen and at the mercy of his whims.

I thought Elon was okay until the Thai Cave debacle made it clear what he’s about. Wasn’t surprised in the least that he wobbled on TWTR and bilked share holders for billions in market cap.

#52 Flop… on 05.13.22 at 6:59 pm

O.k, let’s refocus on someone else’s chest.

This article will make Thor Turner puff his out…

M47BC

“Interestingly—considering the popular narrative around office-based employment evolving into something of a relic—the data for Metro Vancouver show that office-based employment has not only been resilient over the past two years, but it has grown by more than non-office roles.

Specifically, this region lost only 50,000 office-based jobs in the first few months of the pandemic, versus 182,000 jobs lost in the rest of the economy. And since then, office-based employment has grown by 134,000 jobs versus 121,000 in non-office environments. In the last year, 53,000 jobs have been added in office-based settings compared to only 16,000 elsewhere.”

https://rennie.com/rennie-post/the-office-ial-employment-figures-are-in?utm_source=social&utm_medium=twitter&utm_campaign=landscape%20office%20jobs

#53 Steven on 05.13.22 at 7:06 pm

Yea as long as the central bankers print money and lower rates again everything will be fine.

First they need to steal some assets for peanuts and show who really runs the world.

Banks. And please don’t give me the profits response.

#54 Freedom First on 05.13.22 at 7:24 pm

I have been a reader and fan of Garths Blog for many years, and still am.
Sinans writing of todays Post is awesome, and so true in every way. I am so fortunate, as a 70 year old Canadian, to be blessed financially, and to have lived such a wonderful life in this great country. I am especially grateful, knowing that others have not been so fortunate.
Unfortunately, through all of lifes difficult times, some of which Sinan mentioned, every recession, or depression, periods of inflation, high unemployment, etc. there has been a terrible cost to human lives. Bankruptcy, depression, lost dreams, suicides, family breakups, etc. Also, terribly, I have seen loved ones go through these terrible tragedies. Let us more fortunate people remember, it can happen to anyone. God Bless!

#55 WTF on 05.13.22 at 7:38 pm

#35 Ivan the terrible

“Dogs are always happy to see their human, elated even. Cats? Not so much”
—————————————————————-
Maybe Cats just don’t like Russian trolls?

https://www.reddit.com/r/FunnyAnimals/comments/up2ruy/my_friend_petted_a_neighborhood_cat_now_he_drops/

#56 Fact checker on 05.13.22 at 7:45 pm

“Don’t Be Distracted

Market drawdowns often feel like they will last a long time but in realty most have not lasted very long. Since 1950, the S&P 500 has undergone three dozen corrections and 22 of these have found their bottom within 104 days. Only on 7 occasions since 1950 has a correction lasted longer than 288 days, and it’s only happened twice since 1982 (the bursting of the tech bubble in 2000-2001 and the 2008-2009 financial crisis).

Since 1960 the S&P 500 has only gone 3 months without making an all-time high 30 times. So while the market can drop further from here worrying about it and letting your portfolio value be your only feedback mechanism is not productive to you reaching your long term financial goals.”

Sure, nothing to worry about specially if you think in nominal terms. Real returns is what really matters. Need I remind us of the 70ths: a full decade by the end of which the real returns of both stocks and bonds was negative. I honestly don’t know how well your above detailed portfolio would do in such environment.

#57 AK on 05.13.22 at 8:07 pm

“Since 2010 CNBC has run over 100 episodes of its Special Report “Markets In Turmoil” with the most recent one aired a few days ago. ”
====================================

LOL. I have never watched a single episode.

#58 DON on 05.13.22 at 8:12 pm

#34 Sail Away on 05.13.22 at 3:21 pm
A standard joke in the US is to say that there is no way to tell the difference between an American and a Canadian. If you get any significant reaction, you are probably talking to a Canadian.

********
Everyone in the World knows when their talking to an ‘American’.

#59 salonist on 05.13.22 at 8:43 pm

sail away
steers away from boats with through holes

into the smoke
https://www.greaterfool.ca/2020/09/16/into-the-smoke/

he never wanted a long life,he spoke of removing and putting aside his father pants that he just peed into

https://www.amazon.ca/Deplorables-Dyslexic-Smoking-Man-ebook/dp/B08KYD2PQP

port dover 0 police today
for those that do not no, every friday the 13th THOUSANDS of bikers converge on port dover and consume all the burgers and ice cream in town without incident

#60 espressobob on 05.13.22 at 8:51 pm

Instant gratification is the new norm. We see this in meme, crypto, and others in this day and age.

Old school investing over the long haul eludes many, while the fundamentals are dissed by newbies since they don’t have the patience or discipline to stay the course over the long haul owning publicly traded corporations , that are in the business of making profit. They go for the glory short term.

Some figure it out, while many others never do.

#61 kommykim on 05.13.22 at 8:53 pm

I rebalance several times during a correction… Usually when an ETF has changed 5-10% from it’s target allocation. I don’t make any trades less than $1000.
Same for on the way back up.
If a lump sum contribution is near (Like $6K TFSA in Jan) I’ll wait until then and rebalance when the cash is in the account.
That way, I’m buying low and selling high on average most of the time.

#62 Ponzius Pilatus on 05.13.22 at 9:06 pm

#49 an investor on 05.13.22 at 5:27 pm
“The first panacea for a mismanaged nation is inflation of the currency; the second is war. Both bring a temporary prosperity; both bring a permanent ruin. But both are the refuge of political and economic opportunists.”

Ernest Hemingway
———————
Who says, a degree in the Arts is useless.
Also, note the semi colon placement.
That’s why he was such a great writer.

#63 leebow on 05.13.22 at 9:06 pm

Good news. Today TWTR moved 9.67% closer to its intrinsic value.

#64 crowdedelevatorfartz on 05.13.22 at 9:20 pm

Ponzie Penultimate Petrol Prices

Yo Ponzie!
You back in the Lower Brain Land yet?

https://www.burnabynow.com/local-news/metro-vancouver-gas-prices-predicted-to-be-the-highest-in-canada-this-weekend-5367220

$2.33.9 gonna be the new high?

Inflation sensation.

And the more the media “pumps” this up….the more people are gonna re think expenditures.

Recession….here…. we….. come.

#65 Tony on 05.13.22 at 9:33 pm

In reference to BOB LOBLAW the other day he won tonight in the 4th race.

#66 Dom on 05.13.22 at 9:41 pm

Great article on crypto volatility! Physical gold and silver and ‘some’ crypto will be all that is left standing.

The percentages are from their highs through the close on May 13:

Carvana: -90%
Vroom: -98%
Rivian: -85%
Snap: -70%
Pinterest: -76%
Netflix: -73%
Wayfair: -84%
Chewy: -78%
Shopify: -77%
Teladoc: -89%
Lyft: -77%
Zoom: -79%
Palantir: -81%
GameStop: -80%
AMC: -84%
Coinbase: -83%
Zillow: -81%
Redfin: -88%
Compass: -75%
Opendoor: -82%
MicroStrategy: -85%
Robinhood: -87%
Moderna: -72%
Beyond Meat: -87%
Peloton: -90%
DoorDash: -72%

#67 baloney Sandwitch on 05.13.22 at 9:42 pm

Thanks for pep talk and agree with bear/bull stuff. But the reality the average Canadian family is hanging on for dear life with an average net worth of <500 K most of that is "house". There is a recession coming, not a soft landing. Inflation is raging and the BOC & Fed have no choice but to raise the cost of money till something breaks bad. RE meltdown has just started, zombie businesses will start to go under, bankruptcy trustees and lawyers will party, alcohol, weed and anti-depressant sales will spike …no it will not be pretty as the excesses are swept away.

#68 crowdedelevatorfartz on 05.13.22 at 10:04 pm

@#62 Ponzie’s Plagarism
“That’s why he was such a great writer.

+++
Yes Hemmingway was brilliant.
He peaked early.
Possibly why, later in life, he became such a depressed alcoholic and then killed himself.

#69 crowdedelevatorfartz on 05.13.22 at 10:12 pm

@#35 Ivan the Russian Troll

“Dogs are always happy to see their human, elated even. Cats? Not so much””

+++
Next time you’re in Siberia

Perhaps you should goes visit Luna the panther

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OhtAW6-hvwY

#70 Sail Away on 05.13.22 at 10:14 pm

#58 DON on 05.13.22 at 8:12 pm
#34 Sail Away on 05.13.22 at 3:21 pm

A standard joke in the US is to say that there is no way to tell the difference between an American and a Canadian. If you get any significant reaction, you are probably talking to a Canadian.

——–

Everyone in the World knows when their talking to an ‘American’.

——–

True. Americans would use ‘they’re’.

#71 Ponzius Pilatus on 05.13.22 at 10:20 pm

#65 Tony on 05.13.22 at 9:33 pm
In reference to BOB LOBLAW the other day he won tonight in the 4th race.
————
What he win?
Groceries for the year at Canadien Superstore?
With inflation these days, thats quite the loot.

#72 Dayrl on 05.13.22 at 10:26 pm

Now with GIC rates passing the 4% mark it is getting harder and harder to discriminate them. The doctor or business owner with $2, $3, $4, $5 million can easily just live off the interest with no complications.

#73 Nonplused on 05.13.22 at 10:27 pm

Crap wrong button.

I be reading that Trudeau’s carbon tax is slated to rise from the current unbearable $50/ton to $170/ton by 2030, which will be truly devastating. I hate to argue with Garth but sell Canada, we’re doomed.

Checking out my most recent gas bill, I paid $138.09 for 28.86 GJ of gas, or $4.785 per GJ. The carbon tax was $60.68 or $2.10 per GJ. That’s not quite half what the gas costs, it’s about 44%.

But that is, I assume, at $50 per ton. At $170 per ton the carbon tax would then be $7.15 per GJ or 149% of the cost of the gas. I’d be paying $11.93 per GJ, which is truly incredible except in brief periods of an energy crisis.

This tax of course affects everything from farm equipment to the trucks that haul the groceries to the store, buses, trains, boats, everything. Electricity generated from natural gas is not spared, and that is going to have to happen every time the sun ducks behind a cloud. The freezers at the store and the heating are also affected. It’s a tax on everything. And it is already a big one. It is soon to be huge. Expect a jug of milk to go from $5 to $17. People simply won’t be able to live.

And needless to say the economy will collapse sometime between now and 2030 because this sort of a tax just simply cannot be sustained. And exports? Forget about it. It takes a lot of energy to make a car and at these types of tax rates our manufacturing could be 3 times as expensive as US manufacturing.

In short this carbon tax plan is economic suicide.

The good news is that if we vote in a conservative government the carbon tax will be scaled back to something reasonable if not eliminated altogether. So vote wisely. You don’t really need another issue no matter your political leanings. You won’t survive this plan economically. Nobody will. It will have to be abandoned, and the sooner the better.

Things that cannot go on forever, usually don’t.

#74 Shawn on 05.13.22 at 10:35 pm

Gasoline Peicises

64 crowdedelevatorfartz on 05.13.22 at 9:20 pm
Ponzie Penultimate Petrol Prices

Yo Ponzie!
You back in the Lower Brain Land yet?

https://www.burnabynow.com/local-news/metro-vancouver-gas-prices-predicted-to-be-the-highest-in-canada-this-weekend-5367220

$2.33.9 gonna be the new high?

*************************************
I got $2.34, who’s gonna give me $2.50? I got a bid for $2,34 who’s gonna give me $2.50?

$2.50! Who’s gonna give me $3.00?

Or something like that. #AlbertaAdvantage

Also my Tesla arrives finally on May 21.

#75 Don on 05.13.22 at 10:39 pm

Heck, even Bank of Montreal has a 4% 10 year GIC rate.

#76 T Rex and the dinosaur clique on 05.13.22 at 11:06 pm

My little financial arbitrage situation just ended.

Actually three weeks ago, cause I could see the big freeze comin’.

They always do this. Everything is sweet and sassy, then it gets too hot so they shut it down, and everythin’ turns backwards on ya.

I had 200K in the markets, pulling in 30% per year easy as pickin’ peaches. Another 200K owin’ on the ol’ homestead in the City, 1.7% variable.

Sweet deal. I made about 50K doin’ that during the COVID times. Then things started lookin’ kinda bad. You could see the big storm comin’ in. They always give you some warning. First the wind, then the rain, then all h*ll breaks loose.

So I shut it all down. Cashed in my 200K, paid off the house and good thing I did too, because I would have lost my entire year’s gains, down about 30K overall if I had left the money in. And the mortgage was up to 2.5% when I paid it.

3 months interest. And yer’ done.

Oh well. When things are good the party is hoppin. When things get bad, no point pouring good beer down the drain. Buckle up, hunker down and wait out the storm. Things will be good again…….

#77 Longterm on 05.13.22 at 11:42 pm

#73 Nonplused on 05.13.22 at 10:27 pm

Things that cannot go on forever, usually don’t.

*****

Like endless economic growth on a finite planet.

#78 Tom from Mississauga on 05.13.22 at 11:48 pm

Been selling S&P 500 and our banks since November and replacing with unbelievable deals in our oil patch. GM and Ford have been selling off as it’s unlikely they will be able to transition to electric, they can barely produce ICE. Green tech and ESG are in epic bubbles. Tech and particularly green tech requires massive up front capital, good luck with that where rates are headed. Just look at the rationale behind this article, Boomers aren’t retiring, they’re retired and can’t handle volatility anymore, that capital will never return. Cash flowing securities are king.

#79 Midnight's on 05.14.22 at 1:01 am

DELETED

#80 DON on 05.14.22 at 1:12 am

#70 Sail Away on 05.13.22 at 10:14 pm
#58 DON on 05.13.22 at 8:12 pm
#34 Sail Away on 05.13.22 at 3:21 pm

A standard joke in the US is to say that there is no way to tell the difference between an American and a Canadian. If you get any significant reaction, you are probably talking to a Canadian.

——–

Everyone in the World knows when their talking to an ‘American’.

——–

True. Americans would use ‘they’re’.

********

Ah you saw the spelling mistake…just for you.

Like fishing with a worm.

#81 Dozer on 05.14.22 at 1:21 am

Panic followed algo selling then margin notes when political media painted the world with fear. Nothing happened on the books of great companies paying increasing dividends, paying down debt, returning cash to shareholders etc.

If you’re looking at daily losses, dial back to 6 month returns, better right? I hold many shares that are still way up over 2 years. I’ve never owned any companies that trade at 300 p/e. Only an idiot holds tech, you trade tech, big dif. Looks to me I’ve lost nothing. I’m even more handsome with the haircut.

I just did my numbers, looks like I’m buying a dozen companies next week. Thanks for the panic selling. Bottom line, buy good companies that pay dividends, turn the TV off if you’re an amateur because you don’t know how to interpret the ‘splatter’.

Dude, just because you have money in the market doesn’t mean your “smart money”. Play it smart, play it long, realize your limitations.

#82 Joe Lalonde on 05.14.22 at 6:59 am

Human ingenuity is one of our greatest strengths in history…
Our politicians and governments have decided that they will shape our future path this with laws and regulations and let that ingenuity and ideas catch up while hamstring it’s citizens to regulations with fines or incarceration breaking any of the multitude implemented.
They chose the wrong horse that can’t be fixed no matter how it’s shaped or presented.
All in and no listening to any failures that can be shown as many countries have already went down this path which is failing spectacularly in their country.

The biggest tragedy is the vast amount of knowledge that we could enjoy, research and use is being suppressed for this government alliance world wide.
And it was happening for decades now as politicians haven’t listened and instead is going along with this failing path.
The experts they’ve created have a credibility problem as before the internet was available, we had no alternative sources to explore.
The engineers of the past did some very innovative work that much is lost but we have some architecture left behind by the materials and structures that were built.
Much materials is lost through time as wood isn’t very structurally sound and rots away along with other materials used.
Many of the engineers today have given up as profits over practicality has decimated the quality that we used to have.

I love knowledge and researching a multitude of areas as many questions that I had couldn’t be answered by our school system.
I was very fortunate to have quite a variety of experiences and allowed at one time to let that brain power work and was successful until government regulations crept in and destroyed the business.

#83 Mike on 05.14.22 at 8:31 am

Good article Sinan! Thanks for helping us stay the course.

#84 Love_The_Cottage on 05.14.22 at 9:19 am

#81 Dozer on 05.14.22 at 1:21 am
…Only an idiot holds tech, you trade tech, big dif. Looks to me I’ve lost nothing…
…looks like I’m buying a dozen companies next week… turn the TV off if you’re an amateur because you don’t know how to interpret the ‘splatter’…realize your limitations.
_______
So others are idiots but you’re smart enough to figure out which 10 stocks to buy to beat the market.

Your advice to others to realize their limitations doesn’t have a lot of credibility.

#85 Sail Away on 05.14.22 at 11:23 am

#80 DON on 05.14.22 at 1:12 am
#70 Sail Away on 05.13.22 at 10:14 pm
#58 DON on 05.13.22 at 8:12 pm
#34 Sail Away on 05.13.22 at 3:21 pm

A standard joke in the US is to say that there is no way to tell the difference between an American and a Canadian. If you get any significant reaction, you are probably talking to a Canadian.

——–

Everyone in the World knows when their talking to an ‘American’.

——–

True. Americans would use ‘they’re’.

——–

Ah you saw the spelling mistake…just for you.

——–

Crafty. You made it look so natural.

#86 The Regulator on 05.14.22 at 4:08 pm

# 55 – wtf : A troll like you would know. Let me guess, animals in general cower in your presence?

#87 The Regulator on 05.14.22 at 4:26 pm

# 69 – crowdedelevatorfarter : I wouldn’t turn my back on that kitty. Especially after the fancy feast runs out.

#88 Dozer on 05.14.22 at 9:26 pm

#84 Cottage.

You sound fretful. Sorry for my success and your losses. Frankly Charlotte, I don’t give a damn. However, my deep value low beta portfolio has performed very well and I’m buying more based solely on fundamentals. How so many have missed the strength of dividend paying blue chips, I can’t say, but with so many idiots howling in pain I can only imagine that more education and less hype is the answer. Fundamentals never supported tech, outside the realm of pro-desk traders and to have bought any amount of crypto, sheer foolishness. I’m up, you’re down, it’s not rocket science.