Crumbles

Those poor Mills. They piled into Bitcoin. Then Dogecoin. Then stablecoins. Then NFTs. Then houses in Bunnypatch, taking on epic levels of debt.

And now? Crumbles. Everywhere. Seems FOMO can be lethal. And it’s a lesson in speculation and groupthink that a lot of kiddos will never forget. Every gen goes through this phase of being smarter than their elders (they think), trading a linear career for fast money. But never have the stakes – and the losses – been this outsized.

In case you missed it, crypto is in crisis. (Yes, the stuff Pierre Poilievre wants Canada to leap into.)

Bitcoin has lost over half its value this year. Suckers who bought at eighty grand now have coins worth less than thirty. BTC broke through a key support level. The next stop could be twenty thousand. Dogecoin traded a few months ago for 23 cents, now it’s 11, for a 52% rout.

Stablecoins were designed to deal with some of the unfathomable volatility that crypto like BTC has experienced. After all, Bitcoin is backed by faerie farts and duct tape, as you know. It’s not a currency. Not an asset that pays interest nor dividends. There is no industry or government insurance. It’s not even regulated. This is just a casino.

So crypto pegged to the US$ was proffered as an improvement. Like TerraUSD, known as UST. The idea was to tether it to the American currency through a complicated process of minting extra coins or burning surplus ones to maintain that equilibrium. (Yeah, it would be easier to just own a dollar but, sheesh, kids…)

Unfortunately UST laid an egg this week and fell sharply below its dollar peg. A sister crypto, called Luna, cratered as a result. A week ago Luna was worth $85. Yesterday it was trading for 3 cents. Worse, the nonprofit outfit behind Luna is holding $3.5 billion in Bitcoin, which will probably have to be dumped to cover the disaster. Yup, more downward pressure on all crypto.

Yesterday Binance, one of the biggest crypto exchanges, suspended withdrawals of Luna as sell orders swamped the system. It was a classic stampede for the exits.

So in the last four weeks investors have lost about $1 trillion. Unlike holding stocks which lose value, cryptos pay no dividends and are not backed by corporations doing business, employing people or generating earnings. There’s no way to find fair value, because there is none. Ethereum crashed 22% in one day this week. BNB, XRP, solana, cardano and others shed a quarter to a third of their values in hours.

There’s more.

Look at Coinbase. Last April (2021) the crypto exchange went public and since then its stock has lost 80% of its value. Things are slipping fast. Coinbase is losing $100 million US per month and its user base is shrinking exponentially. World on the Street is that the company is circling the drain and will be forced into bankruptcy.

And here comes the real shock…

Coinbase holds $256 billion in fiat currencies and crypto on behalf of its depositors. The company has just revealed in its earnings report that in the event of bankruptcy all of that money could be lost.

“The crypto assets we hold in custody on behalf of our customers could be subject to bankruptcy proceedings,” it said. “Coinbase users would become general unsecured creditors.” In other words, poof. There’s no deposit insurance in the crypto world – unlike RBC going down (never gonna happen), in which case CDIC coverage would click in.

Ah yes, and then there are theoseNFTs. Non-fungible tokens. In the past few months people have paid millions to own a digital thingy. Others have fallen for the metaverse, spending tens or hundreds of thousands to lay claim to digital, virtual, non-existent real estate. The Bored Ape Yacht Club’s release of ‘real estate’ a few days ago was massively oversubscribed, with an active resale market springing up immediately.

Those prices, too, are tumbling. Down a quarter in one week. Sales volumes have dumped 40% in five days. The stuff people were clamoring for has lost liquidity along with value.

The lessons are simple.

Sure, folding paper money is an anachronism. Digital currencies are assured. We’re most of the way there already. But crypto is proving to be all that we warned it would become. Volatility is extreme, making it wholly unsound as a medium of exchange. It ain’t money, in other words. Never will be. Crypto’s proven to be absolutely no inflation hedge, and CB monetary policy is now whacking it. Bitcoin, UST and all the brethren are massively risky as investments. Their value depends not on cash distributions (there are none) nor profitability (none of that either) nor the economy (no connection), but on attracting greater fools. Period.

The very lack of regulation, oversight, rules, backstops or adult supervision that made crypto sexy and exciting for people who wanted wealth without work is why the coins and the exchanges trading in them can turn into pits of despair overnight.

In short, things that go up can go down.

Who could possibly have known?

About the picture: “Garth – well not quite a beast,” writes Jim from Red Deer, “but one tough little guy. Size is not everything – meet Larry.”

163 comments ↓

#1 Torontohouses on 05.12.22 at 2:16 pm

Seems like the Toronto correction doesn’t apply to renovated houses…they’re talking about how this small east end house still sold over asking: https://listingsea.com/toronto-on/19-brooklyn-avenue

#2 bdwy on 05.12.22 at 2:20 pm

Suckers who bought at eighty grand now have coins worth less than thirty.
///
may want check math here.

unless you mean cad buy price and usd sell.

but it’s all about LUNA right now 100+ to 2 cents. total wipeout.

#3 Faron on 05.12.22 at 2:21 pm

Coinbase’s bonds are selling for 60% of par. Seems the bond markets think bankruptcy is highly likely…

NASDAQ and BTC have been tied at the hip of late. Only one of those can go to zero, but still… it’s not a pretty picture for a doomer like myself.

#4 bdwy on 05.12.22 at 2:26 pm

#1 Torontohouses on 05.12.22 at 2:16 pm
Seems like the Toronto correction doesn’t apply to renovated houses…they’re talking about how this small east end house still sold over asking
——————-
it’s been that way for years in ‘normal’ parts of vancouver.
anything old sfd w modern/new/shiny inside and *move in ready* plays by its own rules.

rarer than hens teeth and never sits on market.

#5 rampant inflation on 05.12.22 at 2:29 pm

Nasdaq -30%
SP500 -20%

and the bear market is less than 5 months old.

going back to the covid lows just like Cathie Wood.

this market was nothing more than central bank money printing. and fake economic growth

now you have RAMPANT inflation, record high diesel and gasoline prices, with idiot politicians wanting to ban ‘Excessive’ Gasoline Prices and sending a bill to the house.

i guess Nancy Pelosi isn’t old enough to remember the shortages in the 70’s.

our countries are run by idiots. no wonder history repeats.

I recall inflation of over 12%. The lights did not go out. Get a grip. – Garth

#6 Wise Dude on 05.12.22 at 2:34 pm

Wealthsimple is not allowing me to liquidate my profits in LUNA. Bought at .5 cents can’t sell it for 2 cents

#7 HUNGRY BEAR on 05.12.22 at 2:37 pm

Nortel
Bre-X Minerals
Bear Sterns
Enron
AIG
Madoff Investments
Lehman Brothers

All scam companies in traditional markets run by dishonest greedy pigs and resulted in their respective industries being painted with the same brush causing financial havoc for shareholder throughout.

We dont know the whole story behind LUNA yet but you can be sure this will only create regulatory bodies and regulations that will make crypto a more safe and trustworthy investment vehicle in the future.

#8 Cash is King on 05.12.22 at 2:37 pm

Cheap American homes are the nnew coins

#9 Inflation is a Monetary on 05.12.22 at 2:39 pm

Social media influencers told the young ones that holding cash is trash, wasting 10% to iflation.

So they rushed to the crap coins at the peak.

There are middle class fathers who took home equity lines of credit and large loans to invest in Terra Luna coins, only to find it’s valued pennies to the $180 they paid for it at the peak.

Tragic.

#10 Joseph R. on 05.12.22 at 2:41 pm

Houses are losing values while used cars are gaining value.

That is something different form the old days

#11 None on 05.12.22 at 2:42 pm

What are ‘support levels’?? Are they actually a real thing?

#12 Quintilian on 05.12.22 at 2:45 pm

“Those poor Mills. They piled into Bitcoin.”

I don’t think so Garth.

It’s the greedy boomers with enough money and stupidity that jumped in.

I think for the most part it’s the “seasoned professionals” probably in your age group, who run the institutional casinos- oops I meant investment groups, with other people’s money that perpetrated this historical scam.

#13 CL on 05.12.22 at 2:47 pm

Never touched any of it and I was told how dumb I was and what I was missing out on. Not the first time.

I read somewhere awhile ago that there were over 10000 cryptos around the world?? I had to do a double take. I don’t remember where I read it but I thought tulips right away. The block chain tech itself is great, the cryptos themselves are garbage.

#14 Dr V on 05.12.22 at 2:54 pm

161 Fartz

“@#156 Faron.
‘Probably from Oregon. Slowest drivers in North America bar none. ‘
+++
Have you ever driven in PEI?
Worst drivers in North America.
120kph in a 90kph zone until they arrive on your bumper….where they stay …..for miles…..”
———————————————-

Hey Fartz. I remember a twisted tune in BC in the 80s.
“Drive like an Albertan” was sung to the tune of “Walk like an Egyptian”. Too funny.

#15 bdwy on 05.12.22 at 3:02 pm

it’s not yet time to be buying this dip.

even aapl getting dipped too.

brk under 300 seems worthy
cost at 400ish would be ‘wholesale pricing’

#16 Søren Angst on 05.12.22 at 3:03 pm

“Now this is not the end. It is not even the beginning of the end. But it is, perhaps, the end of the beginning.”

—————–

Keep chronicling Garth.

Much more blood to be spilled and stories of that to be told.

Lucky we have you for that Garth. Indeed.

#17 Faron on 05.12.22 at 3:08 pm

#11 None on 05.12.22 at 2:42 pm
What are ‘support levels’?? Are they actually a real thing?

The quantitative basis for them are the heavily bought strikes on the options chains. As spot approaches a high open interest strike, options dealers are forced to hedge their positions to stay delta neutral which can cause an inflection on or near that strike. For a while @jam_croissant tweeted levels on ES every morning based on analysis of the options chain. Any reversals almost always happened on a level to the tic ($0.25).

Currently, SPX and NDQ are in negative gamma territory. Crudely, this causes dealers to sell into dips and buy into gains exacerbating index moves. During negative gamma times, levels matter much less.

Levels are also psychological and sometimes bot driven. @jam_croissant quit giving his levels when he started a fund.

#18 TurnerNation on 05.12.22 at 3:10 pm

#84 cuke and tomato picker on 05.11.22 at 7:41 pm
Interesting we have just got a second notice that the
District of Central Saanich have re -designated our area from residential to multi unit residential

^^ Yup every city will be declared “multi residential”. War on SFH and. How else to fit the 100m people.
The hint was in the Economic Shutdowns of 2020, the one thing not shut down was residential condo construction.


— The Economic Lockdowns were a precursor to the Climate Lockdowns? Control over our Travel/Movement is permanent.

https://www.wired.com/story/the-pandemic-gave-scientists-a-new-way-to-spy-on-emissions/
The Pandemic Gave Scientists a New Way to Spy on Emissions Researchers have struggled to quantify in real time how much carbon dioxide humans spout. Lockdowns presented a unique opportunity to get a clearer picture.

——– But you knew about this in Q2 2020.

“#129 TurnerNation on 05.30.20 at 8:13 am
In late March someone noted this. We are in the data gathering stage. A.I. and 5G will further that.
In some countries right now you must apply for govt permission and a QR code in order to leave the house
From late March, from elsewhere:
“We’re in an experiment. We’re now getting a glimpse of what a high tech, low carbon, limited mobility civilization looks like. The technocrats must be loving this – they’re going to have so much data to analyze after the experiment is over. Other major interest groups will use this experiment to further their agenda”

#19 The Hat on 05.12.22 at 3:11 pm

Are you avoiding talking about the stock and bond markets? Those aren’t doing all that great either.

#20 Big Mac on 05.12.22 at 3:11 pm

I bet it felt good writing today’s post, right Garth?!

And you didn’t even write «Told ya so»

#21 Caffeine Monkey on 05.12.22 at 3:16 pm

People on the Luna subreddit are openly discussing suicide. https://www.reddit.com/r/terraluna/

#22 Jesse on 05.12.22 at 3:21 pm

This pricing is unsustainable as jobs drift back to traditional workplaces and urban refugees realize what their odyssey cost – including diversity and career advancement.

****************************************

Garth – I don’t think you are understanding the reality of the situation, work-from-home is here to stay. Whether you like it or not, people are not going back to the office full time, what I have seen and experienced is that most places are still 100% virtual, with only optional days in the office, and depending on the fall pandemic numbers… it may stay that way.

Many employees will quit and find another job that allows for work-from-home if they are forced to return to the office full time. This is the new reality. But there is one giant issue and it impacts everyone: “Work-From-Home” equals “Work-From-India”. Have you noticed the acceleration in off-shoring jobs, even white collar jobs like accounting and engineering? Yeah. Be careful what you wish for!

#23 Philco on 05.12.22 at 3:23 pm

Rained out OMG had to shut down moving dirt.

Bitcon lol back to Nelson..
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0O1H0jcyNsk

#24 crowdedelevatorfartz on 05.12.22 at 3:31 pm

I almost stopped at Faerie Farts….

I just hang on to my boring, balanced, dividend paying ETF’s, Bonnds, etc as I also load up on a bit of cash.

I expect the Real Estate panic to hit sometime mid Fall.
Ha….”fall” get it?
:0

#25 SunShowers on 05.12.22 at 3:31 pm

People bragged that due to it’s decentralized nature and the fact it’s (ostensibly) a currency, bitcoin and other crypto would be a hedge against fiat currency markets.

But over time, it became pretty clear that crypto moved in lockstep with fiat currency markets, because the majority of crypto owners do two things and two things only with it.

1) Buy it with fiat currency
2) Sell it for fiat currency when (if) the price goes up

So despite all the fancy talk about blockchains/etc, all most people use crypto for is trying to make a quick buck on a gamble, because the world where people could rely on hard work and dedication to get ahead financially is long gone.

#26 Grunt on 05.12.22 at 3:33 pm

Such a turnover at work during the pandemic. I’d hear newbies I didn’t know mouthing off crypto in a VERY smug and informed way. Encouraging others to dive in.

I shrugged it off to myself as pure later regrettable BS.
No understanding of the need to be a patient investor.

#27 The real Kip (Ret) on 05.12.22 at 3:35 pm

And I slept like a baby through it all in my paid off house, yawn. Enjoy the ride.

#28 under the radar on 05.12.22 at 3:35 pm

I wonder how Mr. Wonderful is doing with his stable coins?

#29 Richard L on 05.12.22 at 3:36 pm

I have yet to hear an explanation of why bitcoin (or any other digital currency) is a sound investment.

#30 Can't happen here on 05.12.22 at 3:36 pm

Get ready to pay per kilometre driven

https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.9news.com.au/article/93af32cf-d451-4b84-9644-946f2d731046

#31 Mehling on 05.12.22 at 3:38 pm

Wrong Q.

“83% of millennial millionaires own crypto”

https://thepaypers.com/cryptocurrencies/83-of-millennial-millionaires-own-crypto–1253548#:~:text=They%20have%20invested%20a%20significant,they%20had%20made%20crypto%20investments.

“I certainly didn’t invest in crypto. I’m proud of the fact I’ve avoided it.

It’s like a venereal disease or something.

I just regard it as beneath contempt,” Munger said during the annual meeting of the publisher Daily Journal Corp., where Munger serves as chairman.

#32 Barb on 05.12.22 at 3:39 pm

“…lesson in speculation and groupthink that a lot of kiddos will never forget.”

Many kiddos also learned what a Margin Account is.
The hard way.

#33 Catalyst on 05.12.22 at 3:40 pm

Crypto started as a way to launder ill gotten gains and tricked society into buying the digital gold narrative through aggressive marketing campaigns. The UST thing actually makes sense through this lens. Instead of selling BTC for dollars and paying taxes (ew!), you trade them for an equivalent value of tokens in UST and avoid tax (yay!).

I can’t believe politicians have let this thing get so large but they must have figured it would happen without them so try and skim a profit (like weed).

#34 Damifino on 05.12.22 at 3:46 pm

#7 HUNGRY BEAR

[…]you can be sure this will only create regulatory bodies and regulations that will make crypto a more safe and trustworthy investment vehicle in the future.
—————————–

Huh? I thought the whole idea behind crypto was to avoid regulatory bodies. You can’t have it both ways.

#35 Dr V on 05.12.22 at 3:52 pm

Been looking for a vid where Pierre actually recommends buying bitcoin or digital currencies. My search finds lots of newscasts/opinion pieces where they say he has done so, and also some pieces where Pierre discusses the topic but does not specifically recommend getting some.

Also a multitude of vids that are too long to watch to find the actual moment.

if someone has a link, with a time for the comment, it would be greatly appreciated. TIA.

#36 RichardTO on 05.12.22 at 3:54 pm

@Garth
“Bitcoin has lost over half its value this year. Suckers who bought at eighty grand now have coins worth less than thirty. BTC broke through a key support level.”

Same came be said for some top NASDAQ “blue chips”. And BTC did NOT break a key support level. It’s rallying around $30K just like it did during the Elon/ESG/Doggy shitcoin crash same time last year.

Why would you buy individual tech stocks? – Garth

#37 Bitcoin Bro on 05.12.22 at 3:59 pm

I figured this post was coming. A few things to keep into perspective for those declaring the death of crypto.

– First off, come on Garth. ” Not an asset that pays interest nor dividends… not an industry” – I understand you don’t believe in the asset itself but this just isn’t true. There is indeed an entire industry of Bitcoin financial products offered by major traditional and non-traditional finance companies now. I’ve been loaning and earning interest on some of my BTC for years now. Renewable energy and bitcoin mining are starting to converge in many innovative ways. This isn’t 2012. It’s been almost 14 years now. It’s an industry.

– Bitcoin =/= bitcoin =/= the 1000s of cryptos and stablecoins out there. Bitcoin is an internet protocol like the one this website runs on. bitcoin is a digital asset, which also happens to be the best performing asset of the last decade measured in USD. The 1000s of other cryptos are essentially tech companies lead by people. Many are scams, some jokes, with a few genuine attempts to improve upon current financial systems sprinkled in. At least notice the difference between these because they are all often disingenuously lumped under “Crypto”.

– This fiasco with Terra (Tether might be next too) is absolutely a reminder that these are basically the wild west days of banking in the crypto world. Many crypto projects will be exposed as scams or be destroyed completely if this contagion spreads. On the flip side, this will accelerate the regulation of the space which is absolutely a good thing in the long run. Shady digtial banks (which is what Tether and Terra basically are)that aren’t subject to banking regulations is a bad thing.

– One final reminder that Bitcoin has been declared dead by observers about 6 times now. “Zoom out” as they say :)

#38 jess on 05.12.22 at 4:01 pm

from the other day:

#107 Satori on 05.11.22 at 10:15 pm

so you are a real estate agent? More renters should negotiate rather than pay those prices I repeat how many are quality renters that EARN that monthly rent? I do read and listen however, this one comes up a lot lately. “But the law says they can’t charge you the first month’s rent before it is due – which is normally on the first day of your tenancy.”

https://stepstojustice.ca/steps/housing-law/figure-out-if-your-landlord-asking-illegal-payment/
=================

PURPOSE BUILT RENTAL MARKET
toronto Vacancy Rate
4.4%Average Two-Bedroom Rent
$1,666UP by 1.5%

Vacancy Rate1.6%
CONDOMINIUM APARTMENT MARKET
Average Two-Bedroom Rent
$2,355

PURPOSE BUILT RENTAL MARKET KW Cambridge
Vacancy Rate2%
Average Two-Bedroom Rent
$1,356UP by 3.2%

CONDOMINIUM APARTMENT MARKET
Vacancy Rate
0.8%
Average Two-Bedroom Rent
$1,950

https://grad.uwo.ca/doc/admissions/rental-market-report-2021-en.pdf
========

Jerome Powell confirmed for second term as Fed Chair

#39 Dr V on 05.12.22 at 4:01 pm

Hmmmm. Shopify down 78% from its high. And basically everybody owned it, and still does.

Big 5 banks slipping again today and nearing a 20%
correction. Manulife financial crushed.

Why do we have the same conversation every time stock markets correct? How is it that we learn nothing? – Garth

#40 Philco on 05.12.22 at 4:07 pm

Ya well done Garth…funny.
And it uses an absolute sh!t ton of juice.

But that is not…
#21 Caffeine Monkey on 05.12.22 at 3:16 pm

Maybe govs shouldn’t have allowed it…I dunno.
Same old bubble stuff just like the weed stocks…I warn a few to run for the hills on that and told others you’ll live longer without crypto
Ill keep developing land to supply’s peeps needs and cutting lumber.
HARD work but very gratifying.

#41 crowdedelevatorfartz on 05.12.22 at 4:11 pm

Hmmm.
The US busy supplying Ukraine…..while China’s practices “invasion” all around the sovereign country of Taiwan

What will they do….?

https://nationalpost.com/news/china-surrounds-taiwan-with-warships-as-army-conducts-wartime-drills

#42 Philco on 05.12.22 at 4:17 pm

#37 Bitcoin Bro on 05.12.22 at 3:59 pm
———————————–
Anyone that puts any real amount of money in BTC, no offence has a screw lose. Unregulated and so many scams too boot. Its not an asset class and it is a CASINO.
My loots in dirt, wood and steal and it will be there for the kids, kicking out $400k rent a yr and moving higher 2.5%.

#43 Bob on 05.12.22 at 4:28 pm

After all, Bitcoin is backed by faerie farts and duct tape, as you know. It’s not a currency.

Actually, I think it is a currency–or at least it could be. At the end of the day, aren’t all currencies backed by faerie farts and duct tape? If everyone decided that the Canadian dollar was worth nothing, what could the Bank of Canada do about it? If we can trade sea shells and cocoa beans, why not the solutions to math problems?

Fiat currencies are backed by a nation’s ability to tax. – Garth

#44 Quintilian on 05.12.22 at 4:38 pm

#31 Mehling on 05.12.22 at 3:38 pm
Wrong Q.

“83% of millennial millionaires own crypto”
But not 83% of crypto owners are millennials.
I would speculate that their psychological profile would be that of a gambler rather than investor, with a sprinkling of swindler.
How many of those millennial millionaires would have accumulated such wealth the old fashioned hard/smart work way in such a short time?

It’s a scam, and those on the top of the pyramid will have already exited quietly with some of the early gains.

#45 Bitcoin Bro on 05.12.22 at 4:51 pm

#37 Bitcoin Bro on 05.12.22 at 3:59 pm
———————————–
Anyone that puts any real amount of money in BTC, no offence has a screw lose. Unregulated and so many scams too boot. Its not an asset class and it is a CASINO.

Many of the world’s most successful investors have exposure to BTC sir. Paul Tudor Jones, Ray Dalio, and “The Bond King” Bill Gross. It’s the best performing asset of the last decade after all. A 14-year track record now. Volatile? Absolutely but again zoom out. A small exposure to BTC absolutely has a place in a well-balanced and diversified portfolio with an investment horizon measured in decades. Especially now you can get it for cheap ;).

The second part of your post I agree with in regards to crypto in general but again, I implore you or anyone to understand Bitcoin =/= bitcoin =/= “Crypto”.

Also – most of the global markets have effectively devolved into a giant casino over the years and decades. Regulated? Sure. Well-regulated? Highly debatable. The derivatives market is a black hole and hedge funds get away with shady stuff all the time.

#46 You know Val on 05.12.22 at 4:54 pm

Pierre messed up with the Central Bank involvement but he is still the people’s politician and that’s all I got to say about that

#47 Reality is stark on 05.12.22 at 4:56 pm

You have one opportunity in life to be a cowboy and take some severe financial risks. When you are in your twenties with no dependents.
Some big wins and some big losses and some sleepless nights. Lots of times it pays off and you get a couple toys and a down payment on a house.
But the sleepless nights are the lessons.
After that it’s a properly diversified portfolio and pay down your mortgage within reason.
When the country you live in spends money recklessly and decides not to control costs you need to become slightly more conservative in your investment decisions.
Your job prospects are likely to deteriorate.
Irresponsible government administrators are not your friends. They don’t care about your long run prospects.
When their policies goose unproductive housing follow the advice of the great Kurt Richebacher and take some chips off the table.
Never invest in Moose Pasture Mines or stupidcoin or other idiocies that don’t make profits.
Buy solid companies and stay the course and get out of debt.
When they want you to overpay for something so they can live in a “nice” neighbourhood, walk and don’t look back.
You can do better than that.

#48 yvr_lurker on 05.12.22 at 5:01 pm

I have never seen the allure of why young people flock to Bitcoin. I know someone who is 40 who sold their house on Vancouver island to invest in this, and who now has lost tons in the past few months.
There does not seem to be a place to hide at the moment. My DC pension total in balanced funds and professionally managed has lost 6.5% in the past four months, and it still seems to be on the way down. The house in Kits (with only a very small mortage left) is the savior as a comparable down the street just sold last week for 50K over asking (3.15M). Not bunypatch.

#49 Philco on 05.12.22 at 5:06 pm

Fiat currencies are backed by a nation’s ability to tax. – Garth
Not many know that AND tax they do.

#41 crowdedelevatorfartz on 05.12.22 at 4:11 pm
================
And they kicked the crap outa Hong Kongs democracy.
The US needs to run a couple of their new aircraft carriers over there for a showing. Lose canon states Russia and China.
But they got sleepy Joe need to head to the old age home.

#50 Concerned Citizen on 05.12.22 at 5:07 pm

I couldn’t agree more re: the scandal that is crypto currency. Like other swindles before it, I expect this one too will go the way of the dinosaur eventually. Poilievre will come to regret supporting crypto, IMO. His stance on crypto does not befit a serious leader, and it could very well undo his chances – if not for the leadership, then for the PM job.

I watched about half of the Conservative debate. Poilievre came across as wooden – reminded me of Stephan Harper at times. But Poilievre came across as angry at times too, and that won’t play well beyond a certain base of supporters. I thought Charest did well, and I was also pleased with Patrick Brown – although his position that we should enforce a no-fly zone in Ukraine is lunacy and I expect he may very well change his tune. I was pleased to see so many candidates talk about the need to bridge the country. I just hope that they realize that in order to do that, they need to increase economic opportunity (reduced cost of living, affordable housing, good jobs) and strengthen – not weaken – our national institutions.

#51 NOSTRADAMUS on 05.12.22 at 5:10 pm

HOME INSPECTION, NO WAY JOSE!
Once the Baby Duck bubbly gifted from their real estate agent goes flat, I suspect the young couple now looking at the shoddy construction of their first home, are starting to wonder why their agent didn’t insist on a home inspection prior to finalizing their dream home purchase. Or heaven forbid, slip a home inspector in for a quick boo during the 7 -10 day holding period before all offers would be (cough ) entertained. I am sure if the agent was really looking out for his clients best interest, he could have come up with something far better than, sorry the seller will not consider an offer conditional on a home inspection. Logic would indicate, what are the home sellers hiding??? MMMM— I guess he didn’t hear the alarm bells ringing. While on the topic of real estate agents, I wonder how many realtors have spec properties buried in someone else name???
I am also wondering how the realtor’s got around the home inspection issue on their purchase’s ??? Whoa, too many questions. Steady Lads.

#52 Dr V on 05.12.22 at 5:12 pm

“Why do we have the same conversation every time stock markets correct? How is it that we learn nothing?
– Garth”
———————————————–

I do not own crypto.

I only own Shopify in a Canadian index fund, so minimal damage.

My 3 individual stocks are a bank, a utility and a REIT.
Initial purchases for each less than 1% of all holdings. Bought for the divvies, hopefully all 3 are long-term holds.

I notice my Cdn dividend ETF is only down about 8% from its peak. It employs an “index” strategy (really just rules-based if you ask me) and holds a few dozen companies including lots of the big 5 banks. But the banks have corrected more than the ETF. So wondering if I should buy a bank specific ETF if we hit a “bank bear”.

Garth you do a great job!

I confirm Philcos comment re the weather. Sucks today on VI.

#53 Tony on 05.12.22 at 5:17 pm

Re: #5 rampant inflation on 05.12.22 at 2:29 pm

The DOW is nowhere near a bear market. A bear market is normally based on the DOW index.

#54 Doug t on 05.12.22 at 5:20 pm

I like coincoin- canadian pre ‘68 – I recall when a younger version of myself taking a silver dollar (80%) and/or fifty cent piece to the corner store for snacks – still have a couple hundred in a box

#55 Tony on 05.12.22 at 5:23 pm

Re: #39 Dr V on 05.12.22 at 4:01 pm

The same guy who traded Beyond Meat traded Shopify. All based on AI and the guy is a billionaire. Needless to say massive swings up or down when he has a stake or sells a stake. I told my brother to short Shopify last September.

#56 The Totally Unbiased, Highly Intelligent, Rational Observer on 05.12.22 at 5:25 pm

REFLECTIONS ON THE PRICE AND VALUE OF THINGS

The Gold Standard

God invented nice shiny things like gold and silver. They will always be of some value.

Funny Money

National governments invented fiat currencies to relieve people of their nice shiny gold and silver. There are already over a hundred fiat currencies. Historically, fiat currencies all eventually get delinked from gold and silver and anything else of value, get printed like crazy, and go to their intrinsic value of near zero, or whatever toilet paper is worth.

In Canada, the current Liberal government is starting to get into the printing like crazy part. Some people might like the debased currency because the price of their houses in Canadian dollars will go up, even though the value of their houses might remain about the same. As the Canadian dollar gets printed like crazy and its value approaches zero, Canadian house prices will approach infinity in terms of the Canadian dollar. It will look good on paper.

Crypto Scams

Pimple-faced, pornography-addicted, computer geeks invented cryptocurrencies to try to relieve people of their hard-earned fiat currencies. There are already over 13,000 cryptocurrencies, which supposedly have a total combined retail price of about 1.3 trillion American fiat dollars. Of course, the intrinsic value of all these computer games is zero or less, so there is room for some wealth to be lost here. Cryptocurrencies are totally imaginary and therefore have no toilet paper value. Remember this if you poop yourself when you see your crypto scams go to zero.

Digital Disaster Plan

All the numerous and serious problems with digital currencies will become more apparent when governments get in on the scam and start to introduce their own digital currencies that can be tracked everywhere, recorded forever, turned on and off at the will of the government, limited as to where they can be spent, designed to lose value if people try to save them, etcetera. Watch China to see what the future of Canada could be like.

Some people might start to wish that they had stayed with nice shiny rocks and never had anything to do with electronic games that just waste a lot of electricity.

#57 Tony on 05.12.22 at 5:51 pm

Re: #10 Joseph R. on 05.12.22 at 2:41 pm

Used car prices fell one percent month over month in America. Inflation is alive and well at the yearling sales both thoroughbreds and standardbreds.

#58 DON on 05.12.22 at 5:59 pm

Garth, I fully understand what you are saying.

Buy all the bitcoins I can before they don’t exist anymore. I will do one better and take out a loan to do so. Everything should be ok cause my BIL and real estate buddy are doing the same.

#59 Just to clarify on 05.12.22 at 6:02 pm

When buyer says “we don’t need a home inspection” agent types it into the offer anyway, tells them to cross it out and initial it

#60 crowdedelevatorfartz on 05.12.22 at 6:02 pm

@#49 Philco
“The US needs to run a couple of their new aircraft carriers over there for a showing. ”
+++
WWII fat, slow, “high tech” targets.
7 years and 7 billion dollars and one $10 million hypersonic missile will send it to the bottom.
Nope.
The US wouldnt risk it.

#61 fishman on 05.12.22 at 6:05 pm

#53 Tony, Close enough to a bear market on this side of the Atlantic, that I can smell his stinky breath. How about those Euroweenies? The capitalist market bear chewing on his head. The Russian bear chewing on his ankle.

#62 DON on 05.12.22 at 6:06 pm

#41 crowdedelevatorfartz on 05.12.22 at 4:11 pm
Hmmm.
The US busy supplying Ukraine…..while China’s practices “invasion” all around the sovereign country of Taiwan

What will they do….?

https://nationalpost.com/news/china-surrounds-taiwan-with-warships-as-army-conducts-wartime-drills

***********
After Ukraine…I wouldn’t be surprised if it happened in tbe next few months. Spread the Ud and allies thin. How do you reinforce an Island when all eyes are on it from China.

In WW2 both Japan and Germany were on the move prior to an official war breaking out, now we have Russia and China. Nukes have been used before and sadly forgotten.

#63 Sail Away on 05.12.22 at 6:07 pm

#52 Dr V on 05.12.22 at 5:12 pm

I confirm Philcos comment re the weather. Sucks today on VI.

——–

Stopped now, but the long range forecast continues wet. We’ve been hiking Mt. Benson weekly and there’s still a pile of snow up top, even still wet snowing at elevation some days in May. Sloppy.

#64 DON on 05.12.22 at 6:09 pm

#46 You know Val on 05.12.22 at 4:54 pm
Pierre messed up with the Central Bank involvement but he is still the people’s politician and that’s all I got to say about that
*********
You were laughing when you said that, right? He’s Harper and Kenney’s entourage.

#65 Kim Cambie on 05.12.22 at 6:09 pm

I am thinking of a number between 0 and 115,792,089,237,316,195,423,570,985,008,687,907,853,269,984,665,640,564,039,457,584,007,913,129,639,935

The first person to guess the number gets a virtual asset that some think is worth $70,000.00 USD. Go at it kiddies.

#66 jimmy zhao on 05.12.22 at 6:17 pm

RE: #13 CL on 05.12.22 at 2:47 pm

“I read somewhere awhile ago that there were over 10000 cryptos around the world??…”

Here is a website that track those 10,000+ cryptos

https://coinmarketcap.com/

jimmy

#67 Stealth on 05.12.22 at 6:24 pm

Thanks for the post.

About bear market:
1. Does it only refer to the US or the whole world and does it mean total market ?
2. Are we in one now or is it still a correction?
3. What constitutes a bear market is it the moment tjere in is 20% decrease or it needs to stay over few quarters.

Asking for a friend

Thanks

#68 Penny Henny on 05.12.22 at 6:25 pm

Imagine how high inflation would be in the States if their dollar wasn’t so strong.

#69 Gen X on 05.12.22 at 6:27 pm

@ #6

Wealthsimple is nothing but a trickster. They are currently giving 50% Buy/Sell spreads for LUNA.

Scammy and rip off markups.

#70 rampant inflation on 05.12.22 at 6:33 pm

#53 Tony on 05.12.22 at 5:17 pm
The DOW is nowhere near a bear market. A bear market is normally based on the DOW index.
__________________________________

the DOW has been irrelevant for decades. SP500 is the index that matters. nobody invests in the DOW

#71 Tom from Mississauga on 05.12.22 at 6:33 pm

You forgot to bash meme stocks

#72 Yukon Elvis on 05.12.22 at 6:34 pm

#39 Dr V on 05.12.22 at 4:01 pm
Hmmmm. Shopify down 78% from its high. And basically everybody owned it, and still does.

Big 5 banks slipping again today and nearing a 20%
correction. Manulife financial crushed.
+++++++++++++
I will be backing up the truck and buying those Big 5 bank shares when the dividends hit 5+%.

#73 Senator Bluto on 05.12.22 at 6:38 pm

#35 Dr V on 05.12.22 at 3:52 pm
Been looking for a vid where Pierre actually recommends buying bitcoin or digital currencies. My search finds lots of newscasts/opinion pieces where they say he has done so, and also some pieces where Pierre discusses the topic but does not specifically recommend getting some.

Also a multitude of vids that are too long to watch to find the actual moment.

if someone has a link, with a time for the comment, it would be greatly appreciated. TIA.

++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

You’ve accidentally run into one of the greatest cons of modern media. Very common way the media attempts to discredit someone they dislike.

They take something not said, pretend that it was said and then pass it around as if it was fact.

CNN’s Jim Acosta recently got called out on that one in an interview and was outed as a babbling nincompoop when it became apparent that the Tweet he was basing a hit piece on didn’t actually exist.

Oddly, I was trying to find a link to the story, but Google scrubbed it out of existence…. funny how that works, eh??

#74 T on 05.12.22 at 6:41 pm

#45 Bitcoin Bro on 05.12.22 at 4:51 pm

Thanks bro! So many people here just don’t get it. Bitcoin is digital gold, been around forever like 14 years, super safe as the ledger data is shared across a network of random contributors and their devices and networks, and the global financial and climate costs to keep it going make it sensible as a store of value.

#75 crowdedelevatorfartz on 05.12.22 at 7:09 pm

@#62 Don
yep.
I suspect computer virus and missile attacks on communications.

Stealth Chinese paratroop reconnaissance, sabotage and assassinations and control of several airports.
Land more troops and light armour at airports.
Ships, troop carriers, missile attacks etc.
Control of key ports in a week.
Dig in, control the civilian population, wait for a US/Allied response

The US , Japan and etc will have one hell of a time returning to the island.
Economic Sanctions against China….won’t work.
Food is another matter.
China has stockpiled about 1.5 years worth of grain, rice, etc.
Russia would probably sell them all they have…if Putin is still alive..
Interesting times.

#76 jess on 05.12.22 at 7:09 pm

German real estate.
“Adler was always a leveraged play on the German residential sector, ”

Adler property firm one of Germany’s biggest landlords

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/schroders-blackrock-pimco-face-losses-070103307.html

#77 Linda on 05.12.22 at 7:10 pm

Since the computer appears to have eaten my earlier post, I’ll try again. Cryptocurrency such as Bitcoin is to me a financial Ponzi scheme. Besides having little to no regulation & the fact it is backed by absolutely nothing but faith, seems to me that those who decry money laundering are missing how well this financial instrument would do just that. Fiat currency on the other hand is as easily transacted via electronic means. It is backed by actual assets. The downside I guess from the POV of those who swear by it is that it is traceable, taxable & regulated.

#78 crowdedelevatorfartz on 05.12.22 at 7:14 pm

@#65 Kim Cambie
“I am thinking of a number between 0 and 115,792,089,237,316,195,423,570,985,008,687,907,853,269,984,665,640,564,039,457,584,007,913,129,639,935
++++

1

#79 My Body My Choice on 05.12.22 at 7:19 pm

Yes, cryptos are not much more than a ponzi scheme.

I’m a Poilievre supporter but during last night’s debate, I realized the only question that matters is “Who can defeat Trudeau and the Liberals in the next election?”

Canadian politics is heavily based on image and style. Poilievre has a strong conservative platform but he lacks maturity and just doesn’t seem to be Prime Ministerial. I don’t think he’ll appeal enough to the urban and suburban voters in the vote-rich GTA, Montreal and the Lower Brainland.

Jean Charest is a Red Tory, but he exudes maturity, confidence and wisdom. He has a very long track record as premiere of Quebec, Deputy PM, long serving Member of Parliament. He will have the connections and reputation to get enough seats in Quebec to hopefully win a majority.

Conservative voters have to be pragmatic. Poilievre may be the most honest, true blue Tory, but Charest was the only one on stage who looked like a Prime Minister.

Here is my rating of the candidates after last night’s debate:
Lesylyn Lewis 6/10, Roman Baber 6/10, Jean Charest 8/10, Scott Aitchison 5/10, Patrick Brown 3/10, Pierre Poilievre 7/10.

#80 Philco on 05.12.22 at 7:20 pm

#60 crowdedelevatorfartz on 05.12.22 at 6:02 pm
@#49 Philco
“The US needs to run a couple of their new aircraft carriers over there for a showing. ”
+++
WWII fat, slow, “high tech” targets.
7 years and 7 billion dollars and one $10 million hypersonic missile will send it to the bottom.
Nope.
The US wouldn’t risk it.
—————————–
All 3 have hypersonic.
Its a game of chicken. The US is still ahead of CCP with hardware.
With the sonics its just a Mexican standoff then.
We certainly shouldn’t let them mash Taiwan. It will never end then. Philippines? Japan?
They already said they want work domination. Their patient..
Full disclaimer I HATE WAR. Evil and greed for to obtain more power. Putty you wacko.
Why can’t we just all get along and smoke some gaunga :-)

#81 Quintilian on 05.12.22 at 7:23 pm

#74 T on 05.12.22 at 6:41 pm
“[and] the global financial and climate costs to keep it going make it sensible as a store of value.”

Okay T, you made it so obvious even I picked up on your sarcasm.

Since November bitcoin has lost 54% of its potential purchasing power.
It competes well with the Turkish Lira

#82 Dean on 05.12.22 at 7:23 pm

The guy on coast to coast radio show about 6 months ago said bitcoin will reach 100,000 US dollars each and this is due to coming high inflation and falling stock markets. We will see in the next year or two if this happens. I am guessing he is right. Garth, you will look back at this and see it is right likely true.

Yeah, the radio guy. Right. – Garth

#83 robert james on 05.12.22 at 7:29 pm

In regards to Bitcoin ,,people never learn,, hence wars ,,Ukraine war in particular.. Humans beings do not seem to learn from history.. What is that saying,, making the same mistakes over and over again expecting a different outcome each time.. I learned a lot from the Tech Bubble,, need I say more.. LOL

#84 Terry on 05.12.22 at 7:34 pm

Anyone retiring or has GICs, term deposits maturing hold off reinvesting them only for short term months only. Right now, 3.75% to 4% 5 year rates are still too low. I can easily see 2007 to 2008 GIC rates at 5%+ in the next few months, by year end. I would not be we see year 2000 to 2001 GIC rates of 6%+ on 3 to 5 year money. My long time friend is locking in reverse mortgage rates of 6.99%+ fees for 5 year term and even as his equity in 100%, no debt and in the $800,000 to $1,000,000 range, he could be looking at 8% to 9% reverse mortgage rates by end of 2022. It is getting, its getting, its getting kind of hectic like the song goes.

#85 Ponzius Pilatus on 05.12.22 at 7:35 pm

While Biden and the Congress are sending another 40 billion to Ukraine.
American mothers face a shortage of baby formula.
What’s wrong with this picture?

#86 The Regulator on 05.12.22 at 7:36 pm

I know a guy whose roommate is a bit coin millionaire! He rents a room in a mouldy, shady apartment complex. He seemed kinda shady too. The Titanic housing bubble has popped worldwide, starting in China. The latte crowd might revolt, but 99 % of them don’t know what a pitchfork is.

#87 espressobob on 05.12.22 at 7:37 pm

Commodity plays are painful when one is bitten in the ass. Still some see storage of wealth as justification for positions in Cryptocurrencies while the underlying asset is backed by fluff.

There’s nothing like a good bull trap.

This never gets old.

#88 The Regulator on 05.12.22 at 7:41 pm

# 73 – Senator Bluto : Google/Alphabet wouldn’t do that!!! Fake news. Google/Alphabet said so!

#89 Philco on 05.12.22 at 7:44 pm

Down the chute. Someone’s leaning on the elevator down button. https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/crypto-stress-feeding-wider-selloff-113108470.html

People that own it will hang on and defend it.
Maybe it bounces maybe it doesn’t. But that it not an investment when you have to ask that question.
I watched the dope stocks go up then crash then go back up then crash again. Chart look familiar?
I Picked up a quick $100k after weed crashed as I got aboard then another moon rocket and I blew it out. Then the spec excitement dies completely. You stay away after you got a good hit. Go look at WEED $70 now $7.
Crypto going to doo doo the same?? Prolly.
Garth would rather own GOLD :-)

#90 Steve on 05.12.22 at 7:48 pm

The Yen has decreased 24 percent against USD in the past year. Just saying’

I’ve got my credit default insurance……do you?

It’s just math.

#91 Ponzius Pilatus on 05.12.22 at 7:52 pm

Spent last night in a hotel in Nigara Falls.
In the parking lot there were 5 spaces with Tesla chargers reserved for “Tesla Cars”.
Close to the entrance, which is usually reserved for the handicapped.
Maybe Sailo is right that Musk is conquering the planet, one parking spot at a time.
Damn the invalid drivers!

#92 Steve on 05.12.22 at 7:57 pm

Terry, my LIRA and RRSP, TFSA comes due in 2 weeks and it was at 2.75%, 2.80%, 2.82% back in 2017. I now can get 4.11% to 4.15% on 5 year money with a GIC broker, registered deposit dealer. You say I should wait for rising rates.

It is quite a big amount, as I am retired and my savings have grown by $135,000 since 2017 and so really this 1.3%+ higher rates means $18,000 more interest a year but what you are saying it could be another $30,000 to $40,000 or more a year in interest. I don’t know if I should wait and lose money every month with short term GICs, term deposits or lock in. I wish rates would be 5% or more already.

#93 Shawn on 05.12.22 at 8:01 pm

Are People Going Back to The Office?

Anecdotal evidence in my area is that they are.

My two adult kids. Both back in the office and they prefer it.

Traffic at 5 pm in Edmonton today: I happened to be coming back from visiting a friend. Heavy traffic. Not pre-pandemic but definitely heavy. Part of the ring road highway (The Anthony Henday) was down to almost a stop in two lanes. And so much for high gas prices, it seems people are still driving a lot.

At my golf course, last year and in Summer 2020 all the weekday tee times were being scooped up in minutes as soon as the tee sheet opened at 7 am 7 days prior to each day. The software was almost over-whelmed. It was very hard to get a tee time. My law of shortages applied. As soon as there was a bit of a shortage everyone rushed in and made it worse.

Now despite a late Spring and a golf-starved membership, there are lots of tee times available week days. Why? Because Back to The Office for a lot of the members. No more flexible schedule involving weekday golf.

Anecdotal but it’s what I see.

#94 Flop… on 05.12.22 at 8:05 pm

#85 Ponzius Pilatus on 05.12.22 at 7:35 pm
While Biden and the Congress are sending another 40 billion to Ukraine.
American mothers face a shortage of baby formula.
What’s wrong with this picture?

///////////////////////////

I’ll tell you what’s wrong with this picture.

There are single fathers in America too, so unless you expect them to lactate, they are going to need baby formula too…

M47BC

#95 The Regulator on 05.12.22 at 8:06 pm

# 60 – Crowdedelevatorfartz: Good point about the carriers. Scary too. Think about this: Canada is a buffer between Russia and the U.S.A. Could it be in our interests to become neutral like Switzerland? Will it matter when the missiles start flying?

I see you still have a Russian email address. – Garth

#96 Shawn on 05.12.22 at 8:07 pm

BitCoin?

Don’t make me laugh.

Remember my Rule No.1:

“Always Assume That Buffett is Correct”.

He’s not ALWAYS right, but it’s the way to bet.

Rule No. 2: Don’t Forget Rule No. 1.

Fiat currency someone says. As soon as they say I know they are misguided. Yes our currency is fiat meaning based on trust. It’s the conclusions that people draw from that there are generally wrong.

As soon as you start describing a U.S. or even a Canadian dollar with a term meant to be a term of derision (as opposed to a mere fact), you have lost it.

All hail the mighty U.S. dollar. King of currencies. Long may she reign.

#97 Ustabe on 05.12.22 at 8:18 pm

#85 Ponzius Pilatus on 05.12.22 at 7:35 pm

While Biden and the Congress are sending another 40 billion to Ukraine.
American mothers face a shortage of baby formula.
What’s wrong with this picture?

Come on Ponzie, you need to be better than that.

Trump’s North American Trade Agreement taxes baby formula imports starting at 17% and going up from there. It also actively discourages importing formula from Canada.

Abbot Nutrition, one of the largest US formula manufacturers spent in excess of 35 billion doing share buybacks while letting their machinery become obsolete and out dated. This led to the FDA shutting them down because they were/are producing contaminated baby formula. As in formula that actually kills babies. Something to do with the dryers that condition the formula for packaging wasn’t right.

Put the two together and you have a typical Trump/Rotten Capitalism mess.

But go ahead, blame Biden.

#98 Ponzius Pilatus on 05.12.22 at 8:26 pm

#94 Flop… on 05.12.22 at 8:05 pm
#85 Ponzius Pilatus on 05.12.22 at 7:35 pm
While Biden and the Congress are sending another 40 billion to Ukraine.
American mothers face a shortage of baby formula.
What’s wrong with this picture?

///////////////////////////

I’ll tell you what’s wrong with this picture.

There are single fathers in America too, so unless you expect them to lactate, they are going to need baby formula too…

M47BC
————
What I’m saying is that US have probably spent directly or indirectly spent already 200 billion on aid to Ukraine, with no end in sight.
Sooner or later the fathers (lactating or not) and the mothers (who are used to formula) will start asking questions, which could be uncomfortable to Biden.
Are the Ukrainian babies more important than the American ones?

#99 TurnerNation on 05.12.22 at 8:27 pm

#30 Can’t happen here on 05.12.22 at 3:36 pm
Get ready to pay per kilometre driven

https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.9news.com.au/article/93af32cf-d451-4b84-9644-946f2d731046

—-
^ Welp for those which said Australia is the test zone for all this tyranny…
I’ll say it again. March 2020 all free travel ended. It fell under global government control. Yep those guys on TeeVeee you’ll vote for, work for them.

Every mode of travel is under permanent tight control and it will become worse. QR codes, tolls, Virtual Berlin Walls, “Climate action”, Gas prices, you name it .
2020/2021 was the test run, and training us.

#100 WTF on 05.12.22 at 8:32 pm

#47 Starting to think I know Val and it scares me

“Pierre messed up with the Central Bank involvement but he is still the people’s politician”
——————————————————————-
Not a leader, professional politician with 0 private sector experience. loony rabid attack dog and former fart catcher for Kenney/Harper. simple answers to complex problems, ….the Libs will feast on him

you want the CPC party to win right?

#101 Let’s not be naive on 05.12.22 at 8:48 pm

“ Why do we have the same conversation every time stock markets correct? How is it that we learn nothing? – Garth”

The conversation is not quite the same. When was the last time US Treasuries were whacked simultaneously with stocks? How many times has this happened in the last century?

How many investors have portfolios with the kind of diversification that would serve as counter-ballast when bonds/stocks stink together?

#102 Wiglar on 05.12.22 at 8:51 pm

Just read an article in the g&m that a Bank of Canada official said that how high interest rates go will depend on how the housing market reacts. This is after they reach there 2 to 3% neutral rate. So there you go , sounds like they’re picking housing market over inflation if it comes down to it.

No bank official said that. – Garth

#103 Dennis on 05.12.22 at 9:05 pm

Wealthsimple, Binance are not letting me buy the LUNA dip at $0.00005, but they were more than happy to process LUNA when it was at C$150.

Scam!

#104 crowdedelevatorfartz on 05.12.22 at 9:20 pm

@#65 Ponzi’s Pabulum Problem
“American mothers face a shortage of baby formula.
What’s wrong with this picture?”

+++
Too many Covid factory workers received govt cheques to stay home and they spent it all on Cigarettes, tattoo’s and Quad runners?

#105 Sheridan Blanchett on 05.12.22 at 9:21 pm

DELETED

#106 crowdedelevatorfartz on 05.12.22 at 9:26 pm

@#95 Ivan the Russian Regulator
“Could it be in our interests to become neutral like Switzerland? Will it matter when the missiles start flying?”
+++

“Our Interests”? or yours Comerade….

If the missiles start flying over Canada ( in BOTH directions) it’s already too late.

Or did you miss the YouTube link on Nuclear War, Radiation and Nuclear Winter I posted last week….?

https://youtu.be/dxJHecyYBno

I’ll take America’s flawed democracy over Putins dictatorship….every….day…..of….the…..week.

#107 Dr V on 05.12.22 at 9:33 pm

72 Yukon

“I will be backing up the truck and buying those Big 5
bank shares when the dividends hit 5+%.”
———————————————

I’ll talk with my advisor on this, as I cant arrive at a particular trigger point metric. Stocks down about 16% from peak (CM a bit more), P/Es in the 9.5-11.5 range,
payout ratios around 40% resulting in 3.5-4.5% divvies.

I’m hoping for steady earnings growth, along with increased dividends.

Considering an equal weight bank ETF, as market weight
is heavy in RY/TD.

Oh what to do, what to do……. :)

#108 Dr V on 05.12.22 at 9:38 pm

73 Bluto

“They take something not said, pretend that it was said
and then pass it around as if it was fact.”
—————————————–

That is definitely my concern, and I see no one has
provided a link.

Anyone??

#109 Paul on 05.12.22 at 9:57 pm

@#37 Bitcoin Bro

Excellent summary, but Terra LUNA’s failure is even more interesting and obvious if you understood the mechanics of their so-called stablecoin. It’s basically an uncollateralized digital-dollar that uses a broken arbitrage mechanism to magically maintain its value. To this day I don’t understand why anyone would “invest” in such a scheme. It’s not really a cryptocurrency. If you wanted a digital version of a dollar, you could just go to a Shopper’s Drug Mart and buy some prepaid Mastercards…

Bitcoin however is extremely robust. Just because dumb money poured in over the past 2 years with Trump/Biden bucks and Trudeau CERB handouts, bidding up spot prices, is not any verdict of Bitcoin. Quite the opposite in fact.

Bitcoin a silent project that operates in the background. There’s no face to it. The founders created it and walked away. It’s like an elegant clock set into motion that continues to tick. There’s no promise of some complex protocol to come 3, 5, or 10 years down the road. It does what it’s supposed to now without self promotion from the founders. Since it doesn’t need self promotion to thrive, it doesn’t fall victim to the vices of marketing from greedy, charismatic leaders, with overly complex projects. Sure, there’s Michael Saylor and Novogratz that sometimes fall into that role. But bitcoin doesn’t need them to survive and won’t need them when they die. The project works now. It does what it’s supposed to and it’ll continue to do what it’s supposed to. It’s the money of the future of our science fiction novels.

There’s no Krypto Kris marketing shitty debit cards. There’s no charismatic Do Kwon (20-something dork behind Luna) doing a Forbes, Steve Jobs photo shoot with a black t-shirt and a white background. There’s no J Powell magically expanding the money supply with a wand, creating a 9 trillion USD balance sheet out of thin air.

BTC takes out the corruption of humans, because the humans that created it stepped away. Sure, people will build corrupt systems around it, but BTC itself is a simple, pure, and elegant vehicle silently ticking away in the background until the ticking becomes so loud that no one can ignore it.

#110 Kim Cambie on 05.12.22 at 10:07 pm

115,792,089,237,316,195,423,570,985,008,687,907,853,269,984,665,640,564,039,457,584,007,913,129,639,935

Converted to a 256 binary digits =

11111111111111111111111111111111111111111111111111111111111111111111111111111111111111111111111111111111111111111111111111111111111111111111111111111111111111111111

convert decimal to binary

https://www.rapidtables.com/convert/number/decimal-to-binary.html

#111 Flop… on 05.12.22 at 10:16 pm

#98 Ponzius Pilatus on 05.12.22 at 8:26 pm
#94 Flop… on 05.12.22 at 8:05 pm
#85 Ponzius Pilatus on 05.12.22 at 7:35 pm
While Biden and the Congress are sending another 40 billion to Ukraine.
American mothers face a shortage of baby formula.
What’s wrong with this picture?

///////////////////////////

I’ll tell you what’s wrong with this picture.

There are single fathers in America too, so unless you expect them to lactate, they are going to need baby formula too…

M47BC
————
What I’m saying is that US have probably spent directly or indirectly spent already 200 billion on aid to Ukraine, with no end in sight.
Sooner or later the fathers (lactating or not) and the mothers (who are used to formula) will start asking questions, which could be uncomfortable to Biden.
Are the Ukrainian babies more important than the American ones?

//////////////////

I’ll tell ya right now, if I could lactate, I would use the milk to make my own delicious Icecream, not feed it to some kid…

M47BC

#112 Summertime on 05.12.22 at 10:18 pm

I recall inflation of over 12%. The lights did not go out. Get a grip. – Garth

That was likely lower than the current inflation as the methodology to measure inflation was different than the current CPI, if we apply the same methodology today the inflation would likely double i.e. be around 15-18 maybe even 20 % today.

Now we lie more about inflation and one wonders if that is pure coincidence or by design.

And I need a reminder here about what were the rates at that time. 15 %? Top 18 %?

And why are the rates 1 % now and central bankers talk about ‘neutral’/read peak/ rates of 2- 3 %?

That is insane. They clearly intend to fake any rate increase, talk it down, prolong it in time and have a period of maybe 80 % or even 120 % cumulative inflation, maybe even more in 3-5 years by maintaining a very small and only temporary rate increase that will be quickly reversed.

Remember, inflation was:
– non existent/we lied about it
– good as it drives ‘growth’
– low
– rising moderately
– transitory
– peak
– now we have ‘neutral’ rates with record real inflation/if we discard the fake CPI that is not inflation.

Brought to you by the hundred of PHDs at the central banks and their leapfrog politicians.

And I agree, the CPP and pension recipients who got 2.7 % annual increase of ‘benefits’ with energy inflation of 137 %, food inflation of 30 % worldwide should ‘get a grip’ and ‘suck it up and move on’.

But definitely stop complaining. It is so anoying.

#113 Summertime on 05.12.22 at 10:23 pm

And the beauty of it? The cherry on the cake?

Bank taxes and the fact that these 1 % (potentially for long term deposits) with real inflation in double digits are actually taxed as they are deemed ‘gains’.

So a saver in the stable central bankers currencies pays bank taxes and at the end get taxed on the ‘gain’
that is actually a double digit percentage loss, to add insult to injury.

Should that not translate to at east tax deductible loss instead?
After all it is a government and central bankers rip off, is it not?

#114 Doug in London on 05.12.22 at 10:36 pm

Yes, those poor Mills that piled insane amounts of money into overpriced Bitcoin. Then Dogecoin. Then stablecoins. Then NFTs. Then houses in Bunnypatch, and other overpriced assets I could never afford. I think they have far too much money. What comes to mind is a hydroelectric power plant with all the sluice gates fully open, dumping all that surplus water after a lot of rain down the spillway just to get rid of it. A poor single guy like me stuck with assets like stocks and ETFs that invest in boring things like utilities, REITs, banks, telecom, and uranium. Here’s a hot tip, this stuff has been going on sale recently. Let’s hope they get even cheaper.

#115 Ponzius Pilatus on 05.12.22 at 10:44 pm

Switzerland has only 2.5% inflation.
It’s amazing how such tiny country is always on top of the pack.

#116 Shawn on 05.12.22 at 11:09 pm

Ponzius Pilatus

Are the Ukrainian babies more important than the American ones?

****************************
Yes Ukrainian civilians getting bombed in the streets and in their houses in front of our faces are in fact more important than American babies who are not starving no matter what you claim.

On top of that it is important for the world to push back on Putin.

I’ve donated to Ukraine.

It always bothers me when people oppose foreign aid. Canada and the U.S. have global responsibilities. At least our government does. They can’t afford to be as selfish as some Canadians would like them to be.

#117 salonist on 05.12.22 at 11:14 pm

crowdedelevatorfartz
i knew you,330 bay street,your suit every crease in place
handsome, tall and sophisticated
not a sound, the one day i met my demise,the elevator was full
i made it one floor

i logged into smoking mans account amd modified a few of his personal streams
and today i remember him selling his book.if you have a copy,please re-up and donate the funds to the good sheppard
a man i knew,outstanding gentleman,business man, met god there,alcohol stripped him bare

we have a problem, the us dollar is rising

#118 Habitt on 05.12.22 at 11:25 pm

Great post. Thank you again Mr. Turner.

#119 Shawn on 05.12.22 at 11:27 pm

#115 Ponzius Pilatus on 05.12.22 at 10:44 pm

Switzerland has only 2.5% inflation.
It’s amazing how such tiny country is always on top of the pack.

****************
Well last time I was there it almost broke the bank to get a coffee and muffin in McDonalds. Maybe they did not need inflation when their cost of living was already so high.

It’s not just the rate of change of prices (inflation) that matters but also the actual level of prices.

#120 Diamond Dog on 05.12.22 at 11:35 pm

#12 Quintilian on 05.12.22 at 2:45 pm

“Those poor Mills. They piled into Bitcoin.”

I don’t think so Garth.

It’s the greedy boomers with enough money and stupidity that jumped in.

Not according to the data. 74% of investors in Crypto are between the ages of 18 and 44. Another 19% are invested between 45 and 55. The 55 plus gang own a mere 7% of Crypto. I did not stutter, I said 7%.

Perhaps its because older investors invest in things they understand. Or, what is far more likely, perhaps older investors stay away from Crypto specifically because they do understand it.

Life is cruel in a way. We hit our primes early, some at 18, others into their late 20’s but our primes do come early. At the physical level, it plateaus for a while but then comes the decline usually into our early to late 30’s depending on the wear and tear.

Now, the beautiful part about the downhill slide of aging is the experience factor. Experience, one finds in time, makes up for the decline. There is, quite frankly, no substitute for experience as those lucky enough to grow older come to learn. That being said, it should go without saying, it should be the “right kind of experience”. If we don’t have that, it’s not written anywhere where we have to learn the hard way, we can borrow and learn from the experience of others through respect for our elders. Elders like Charlie:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ycvb7TH4KIs

#121 Bob on 05.12.22 at 11:52 pm

Just read an article in the g&m that a Bank of Canada official said that how high interest rates go will depend on how the housing market reacts. This is after they reach there 2 to 3% neutral rate. So there you go , sounds like they’re picking housing market over inflation if it comes down to it.

No bank official said that. – Garth

Does deputy governor Toni Gravelle count as a bank official?

The Bank of Canada needs to keep raising interest rates to tackle runaway inflation, deputy governor Toni Gravelle said on Thursday – although how high rates go will depend on how the housing market responds to rising borrowing costs.

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/business/article-interest-rate-trajectory-will-depend-heavily-on-housing-market-boc/

This is exactly what he said, which is quite different from what was reported: “Another factor that might lead us to pause is that many households have taken on more debt to get into the housing market. At the end of 2021, the household debt-to-income ratio was 186%, above the pre-pandemic level of 181%. And rising interest rates are designed to slow the economy by making borrowing more expensive. That tends to slow sectors like housing. But this slowing might be amplified this time around because highly indebted households will face high debt-servicing costs and will likely reduce household spending more than they would have otherwise. Our base-case scenario includes a slowdown in housing activity. But we could see a larger-than-expected slowdown due to higher indebtedness and unsustainably high housing prices.” – Garth

#122 Reggis on 05.13.22 at 1:56 am

Trudeau commits Canada to war with Russia. Read that again. Justin uses Canada to distract from his political mess . This is insanity. Ukraine has a much larger army than Canada. Why would Trudeau commit to a fight with Russia when he snubbed Hong Kong and won’t take any stand on China’s outrageous pressure on Taiwan? Speak up before Trudeau drags Canada into a fight we can’t fight.

#123 Faron on 05.13.22 at 2:33 am

#103 Dr V on 05.12.22 at 9:38 pm
73 Bluto

He seems pretty into bitty here.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.cbc.ca/amp/1.6399986

#124 Midnight's on 05.13.22 at 3:17 am

Are the people here that are bashing Pierre Poilievre the same ones that believed that Trudeau was going to change the nation for the better? Or are they the ones that said, Biden was the needed change for America?
Well, if you’re handing out advice like your political picks shhhhh, your advice sucks! And if anyone is surprised that interest rate are going up at 5000-year lows, lol. Really, was it ones crystal ball or The Tarot cards that helped you to this conclusion? Two picks and zero wins, ok.

#125 Ted Hillman on 05.13.22 at 5:42 am

Sad, but just as predicted

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/ottawa/dog-surrenders-increase-rescues-pandemic-1.6451573

#126 Dharma Bum on 05.13.22 at 7:25 am

#115 Ponzi

Switzerland has only 2.5% inflation.
It’s amazing how such tiny country is always on top of the pack.
—————————————————————————————————-

It’s amazing how the plundered, looted, pilfered, stolen, and confiscated wealth of others helps.

https://www.swissinfo.ch/eng/historical-book_from-nazis-to-refineries–how-switzerland-has-handled-the-world-s-gold/45037968

Switzerland.

Quaint land of Clocks, Chocolate, Yodelling, and Laundered Gold.

#127 Steven Rowlandson on 05.13.22 at 8:02 am

The best thing to occur when financial BS like cryptos and real estate crash and burn is for governments and financial institutions to step aside and not throw any of the official currency at bailing out the losers. Let cryptos and real estate prices crash and burn and let the greater fools lose it all. It will teach society a very serious and valuable lesson. Something like what Kipling had to say in his poem called the ,”Gods of the copy book headings.”
https://youtu.be/CuTt6PRvA6I

#128 crowdedelevatorfartz on 05.13.22 at 8:11 am

@#124 Ted

Sad but true
As predicted.
Our disposable society that “needs” the comfort of a cute puppy when Covid lockdowns were swirling around us.
Now?
Work at Work + inflation =Drop not so cute dog at the Pound.

#129 Summertime on 05.13.22 at 8:26 am

The next big lie: ‘Neutral rates’.

https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/investors-bet-bank-canada-setting-100515921.html

Apparently you fight inflation of high teen double digits with 2-3 % rates. That is called removed stimulus.

In every economic textbook lack of stimulus means positive real rates, i.e. 15 % +.

Talking about central bankers integrity.

#130 crowdedelevatorfartz on 05.13.22 at 8:35 am

Hey Sailio
If you’re still looking for an engineer to join you at your company.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/saskatchewan/engineer-designed-bridge-collapsed-facing-discipline-1.6450110

He might still be available ….if the govt hasn’t hired him first.

#131 IHCTD9 on 05.13.22 at 8:41 am

#111 Flop… on 05.12.22 at 10:16 pm

I’ll tell ya right now, if I could lactate, I would use the milk to make my own delicious Icecream, not feed it to some kid…

M47BC
—————-

Human milk ain’t the best tasting stuff Flop.

Way too sweet, like the residual milk in your bowl after finishing off some honey nut cheerios. Probably still better than formula though.

#132 Twitts on 05.13.22 at 8:56 am

I wonder what the “Twitter bragsters” will say today.
I won’t call them out by name. We know who they are.
You know.. Those smug “twits” that tweet here regularly taking up more space than they could ever deserve. Telling us how smart they are. I’m not even going to waste my time to post their comments. I’ll let them speak for themselves.

#133 Penny Henny on 05.13.22 at 9:24 am

#107 Dr V on 05.12.22 at 9:33 pm
72 Yukon

“I will be backing up the truck and buying those Big 5
bank shares when the dividends hit 5+%.”
———————————————

I’ll talk with my advisor on this, as I cant arrive at a particular trigger point metric. Stocks down about 16% from peak (CM a bit more), P/Es in the 9.5-11.5 range,
payout ratios around 40% resulting in 3.5-4.5% divvies.

I’m hoping for steady earnings growth, along with increased dividends.

Considering an equal weight bank ETF, as market weight
is heavy in RY/TD.

Oh what to do, what to do……. :)
//////////////////

When the time is right you can consider ZEB (equal weight big 6 banks) or do what I did before and buy the big 5 in equal portions.
Disclaimer I sold all my bank stocks Apr 11-12

#134 Westcdn on 05.13.22 at 9:27 am

My opinion subject to revisions from facts.

I am getting greatly vexed by our ruling elites as a group – talk about self interest being priority number one. The group average is being skewed by many bad apples and we should all know what harm a few of them can do. Rules for thee but not for me as I make the rules.

Why is there no dissention in the Liberal Party that I know? I am no supporter of T2 – all bow before the King of mental midgets. How can one think that paying peoplekind to do nothing and making money cheaper than grains of sand will not lead to inflation? Government debt is supported by the ability of our economy to pay taxes and fees. Our fearless leaders are testing the boundaries of their decisions including a few good ones.

Of course, Joe and Jane average will be hurt much more than elites. J&J will be struggling for years for their income just to catch up with higher costs and so their lifestyle will take a hit. Not so the elites – their dollars will also have reduced purchasing power but they can more easily go out and get more. It seems the only thing that can keep them awake at night is falling “asset” values.

I figure our elected representatives must really like the gig and want to be re-elected in return for keeping your mouth shut and being rewarded for loyalty. The entrenched bureaucracy keep the status quo for a number of personal reasons – mainly getting the most for little as possible. Perks are good and you do not have to answer to the public for doing dumb things.

I heard a money managing pundit state it felt like the big money is selling equities into rallies and buying the dip is passé. I agree. It is still not time for me to buy or sell. Seems bonds are being bought which I understand to be about 10 times a larger market than the equity one. The credit markets appear to me to consist mainly of sovereign debt with honorable mention to real estate.

I see no plans to manage sovereign debts except to pay interest due any way governments can. It means more wasteful spending and reduced living standards for most of us. We first need spending to better productivity from our economy to solve consequences from feel good decisions. Just so you know, I am against slavery.

I am going to have a hard time supporting Poilievre – too black and white for me (racist words?). Ever hear of shades of gray where boundaries are fluid? Lewis is more to my liking but untested in public life. I have a thin skin for insults and figure people can do well on their own and groups if they are willing to accept and push back. I would likely turn out as a William Mackenzie King protégé and he could be weird.

EOM

#135 50 YEARS OF MAPLE LEAF INCOMPETENCE! on 05.13.22 at 9:28 am

“Crumbles”

What a terrific description for any hope in the absolutely deplorable Toronthole Make Believes!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kdOPBP9vuZA

#136 Philco on 05.13.22 at 9:39 am

#127 Steven Rowlandson on 05.13.22 at 8:02 am
Sadly most need a leson but you wanna see everone out of work? All bubbles burst as its human nature to create them.
Watch what you wish for.
Recessions should be enough but when they hand out freebees nothing learned.

#137 Philco on 05.13.22 at 9:49 am

And Steve RE is not BS. You could live in a tent?
Low rates leverage and fools caused the boom nothing more.
If it crashes you will see a world of pain.
Very unlikely. If it did it wouldnt hurt me a bit because I dont bet my finacial life on assets going up just secure cash flow.
And if it did Id go shopping while fools panic.
Cheers

#138 Quintilian on 05.13.22 at 9:50 am

#120 Diamond Dog on 05.12.22 at 11:35 pm

“Not according to the data. 74% of investors in Crypto are between the ages of 18 and 44. Another 19% are invested between 45 and 55. The 55 plus gang own a mere 7% of Crypto. I did not stutter, I said 7%”

What data?
A marketing article?

Sorry Dog, in God we trust all others must bring real data.

#139 Mr Canada on 05.13.22 at 10:12 am

Nothing like a good ole fashion purge. As with any speculative bubble, naive investors who come to the party late are at greatest risk of losses. All those over- confident Robinhood traders are quiet for some reason too.

#140 Sail Away on 05.13.22 at 10:46 am

Too early to call the bottom? It feels right. Own good companies and buy buy buy the way down, then reap the benefits. Only borrow below 20%, so yesterday was right on the cusp.

Speaking of, I’m fairly tapped for reserves right now. It’s been deployed exactly per plan: 5% down, this much, 10%, 15, 20, etc. The Covid -40% was incredible but this one’s been pretty good too.

Moving on… moving up? We’ll see.

#141 crowdedelevatorfartz on 05.13.22 at 10:55 am

I’m sure the “high fives” were occurring at Liberal Fund Raising Central at this totally expected news.

https://nationalpost.com/news/local-news/judge-approves-deal-between-snc-lavalin-and-prosecution-in-bribery-case/wcm/8078790c-a845-411a-aa74-31e4ed02f199

Trudeau’s Quebec votes are safe once again.
One wonders what Charest views on SNC’s resurrection are?

#142 Faron on 05.13.22 at 10:57 am

Wow, that TWTR arbitrage just got a lot sweeter. Almost like there was some inherent risk in the deal.

#143 Genny on 05.13.22 at 10:59 am

Trudeau going backwards on LNG by increasing hurdles on drillers when the world is suffering from lack of supply. How do we get out of this mess?

#144 Ponzius Pilatus on 05.13.22 at 11:00 am

116 Shawn on 05.12.22 at 11:09 pm
Ponzius Pilatus

Are the Ukrainian babies more important than the American ones?

****************************
Yes Ukrainian civilians getting bombed in the streets and in their houses in front of our faces are in fact more important than American babies who are not starving no matter what you claim.

On top of that it is important for the world to push back on Putin.

I’ve donated to Ukraine.

It always bothers me when people oppose foreign aid. Canada and the U.S. have global responsibilities. At least our government does. They can’t afford to be as selfish as some Canadians would like them to be.
———————
I have nothing against foreign aid.
I actually think we should give more.
Just distribute it equally, not just to the cause d’jour.
And make sure it gets into the right hands.
Have we forgotten about the Afghans, already.
Also, you did not get the gist of my post.
Read it again.

#145 Ponzius Pilatus on 05.13.22 at 11:09 am

#126 Dharma Bum on 05.13.22 at 7:25 am
#115 Ponzi

Switzerland has only 2.5% inflation.
It’s amazing how such tiny country is always on top of the pack.
—————————————————————————————————-

It’s amazing how the plundered, looted, pilfered, stolen, and confiscated wealth of others helps.

https://www.swissinfo.ch/eng/historical-book_from-nazis-to-refineries–how-switzerland-has-handled-the-world-s-gold/45037968

Switzerland.

Quaint land of Clocks, Chocolate, Yodelling, and Laundered Gold.
——————————-
Haha,
And I thought everyone loves the neutral Schweiz.
Well, they are providing a service.
And many people use it.
I thought that what Capitalism is all about?

#146 DON on 05.13.22 at 11:09 am

#124 Midnight’s on 05.13.22 at 3:17 am
Are the people here that are bashing Pierre Poilievre the same ones that believed that Trudeau was going to change the nation for the better? Or are they the ones that said, Biden was the needed change for America?
Well, if you’re handing out advice like your political picks shhhhh, your advice sucks! And if anyone is surprised that interest rate are going up at 5000-year lows, lol. Really, was it ones crystal ball or The Tarot cards that helped you to this conclusion? Two picks and zero wins, ok

***********

Thanks for speaking FOR everyone.

Pierre and Justin are both false idols. They speak for themselves. Maybe you could phone the Conservative Party and ask for better choices than a life long insitigator and truck convoy right wing nutbar bar and blowhard.

#147 Yukon Elvis on 05.13.22 at 11:11 am

Back in the day we used to warm up regular pasteurized cow’s milk. Babies survived and became the Boomer generation. WTF ?

#148 Sail Away on 05.13.22 at 11:17 am

Ah, such fun watching Elon pwn Twitter. A few deft moves, no money changing hands, and the entire company is at his mercy. Others complain about Twitter, Elon just totally and completely asserts his will.

#149 Dr V on 05.13.22 at 11:18 am

123 Faron

Sorry F, that still falls short. Sounds like he has a position in crypto, and studies it and other monetary options as he has concerns over central bank actions.

His rivals for party leadership have accused him of recommending to Canadians to invest in bitcoin, but I haven’t found that.

Canadians were free to invest in Shopify and renewable energy ETFs too.

#150 Brett in Calgary on 05.13.22 at 11:21 am

#121 Bob & Garth
———————-
The CBs are going to have a rough time raising rates very much without truly upsetting housing. Considering that the world housing market is larger than both the stock and bond markets together, and you can see why they worry. This is also why I think the rate-resets have struggled as of late, the market wants higher rates, but housing seems to be too big to fail.

#151 Brett in Calgary on 05.13.22 at 11:24 am

#121 Bob & Garth
—————————
Sorry that last post wasn’t my most coherent! Feel free to delete it Garth. Bottom line: the housing market is the biggest market in the world so CBs will tread carefully.

#152 M on 05.13.22 at 11:34 am

Garth, what are the chances, in your opinion, market picking up in 2022? Less or greater then 50%?
Does 2023 look brighter then 2022?

Thank you in advance,

#153 Ponzius Pilatus on 05.13.22 at 11:35 am

As I predicted, Turkey’s Erdogan will veto Sweden’s and Finland’s admission into NATO.
He may even strike an alliance with Putin with whom he has a close relationship.
This may bring Serbia into the picture.
Could play out like the early 1900’s.

#154 Bugzy bitcoin on 05.13.22 at 11:43 am

Garth, what is a better bet, buying bitcoin on the dip or taking the moneyline on the Leafs for game 7

#155 Bdwy on 05.13.22 at 12:03 pm

Hey Garth! Hello?! Where’d you go.

Quit the working stuff and get on the moderation pls.

We are not here to wait for you to do your work first….

…….

Now i see the twtr arb risk. Elon be slippery

#156 JR on 05.13.22 at 12:27 pm

“Why do we have the same conversation every time stock markets correct? How is it that we learn nothing? – Garth”

Same thing applies to crypto markets Garth….

#157 DON on 05.13.22 at 12:32 pm

#40 Philco on 05.12.22 at 4:07 pm
Ya well done Garth…funny.
And it uses an absolute sh!t ton of juice.

But that is not…
#21 Caffeine Monkey on 05.12.22 at 3:16 pm

Maybe govs shouldn’t have allowed it…I dunno.
Same old bubble stuff just like the weed stocks…I warn a few to run for the hills on that and told others you’ll live longer without crypto
Ill keep developing land to supply’s peeps needs and cutting lumber.
HARD work but very gratifying.

***************

Hard work never disappointed and it is a sure thing while 1000 board feet of low grade fir goes for over a thousand buck a roos. The storage units are golden…it is amazing what people will pay to lock stuff away from use. Goldmine up and down the Island especially around all the retirement communities the side of the Island Highways are lined with storage units. Lots of toys out there too, more toys lining the highways with forsale signs, lots of big trucks, and boats.

My advice to my BIL about Bit in the ass coin, was get in and get out faster than the herd. Back in the dot com days, day trading while working, I got some great stocks tips…in one week I was up. So I took my winnings and invested the profit…and paid my bank account back. Out for beers with the boys…one ,older brother type’ friend told me things can change fast are you prepared to roll the dice? I was and a couple weeks I lost all the profit I had made. I guess I could have checked to see the companies financials but was young and less experienced, too busy roaming.

#158 Doug in London on 05.13.22 at 1:03 pm

@Diamond Dog, post #120:
It’s the greedy boomers with enough money and stupidity that jumped in.
————————————————————-
WRONG!!!! I’m a born and bred Boomer, born in 1960, and I didn’t buy a cent’s worth of Bitcoin and probably never will. In March 2020 I was scooping up stocks and equity ETFs when they were on sale. Over the next 2 years I sold some off, and now have been buying back some utilities, REITs, bank stocks, uranium ETFs, and other assets that are on sale again and NO BITCOIN. None whatsoever.

#159 Diamond Dog on 05.13.22 at 1:46 pm

#109 Paul on 05.12.22 at 9:57 pm

I’m not sure the founders of Bitcoin did walk away, at least not all of them. Bitcoin, if I had to hazard a guess, not the romanticized fictional version of it’s origins of purpose and code but it’s more grounded origins in monetizing Crypto, came out of the Swiss banking sector. Memories sketchy here, I vaguely remember reading about a buyout of Bitcoin from players in the Swiss banking sector back in the early 2010’s for $25 or $50 billion.

I say this because Bitcoin’s “bank” (data bank) so to speak is in Switzerland. It makes sense because of legal or regulatory freedoms enjoyed there, as well as the personnel it takes to run it so it’s a good fit.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Y2qe3hFeQ5g

For anyone watching the video, Bitcoin has the keys to it’s own coin. We think of Crypto as publicly accessed data that is decentralized with only 2 keys of access per transaction between users, but this isn’t the case. It’s decentralized and partially public in the way the transactions that are processed, but the keys to currency access and trading platforms are entirely centralized and access keys to each transaction exist not only with the user but with the trading platforms AND coin creators in spite of one may have read to the contrary.

In other words, the security of Crypto in people’s wallets is only as solid as the trading platforms and currencies users own and trade with. If we think for one moment that users/investors of Bitcoin are the only one’s with keys to wallets, we are sadly mistaken.

That being said, couple this with a completely unregulated market and currencies and exchanges that often don’t even have a physical address meaning is no legal recourse whatsoever, and we have a system that offers no monetary security or protection whatsoever or let me rephrase that, we have a system that offers no legal recourse in the case of Crypto or trading platform crime or bust.

Coin base is an excellent example of this. What Garth says here, “Coinbase holds $256 billion in fiat currencies and crypto on behalf of its depositors. The company has just revealed in its earnings report that in the event of bankruptcy all of that money could be lost.” This is entirely true.

We have a Nasdaq stock market that is down +25% and a DOW down 12% so far this year flushing the speculation out of Crypto. Ponzi Schemes and Pyramids do great when the money is pouring in but if Bernie Madoff has taught us anything, not so much when the money is pouring out. If market selloffs continue overall, (can’t see how they won’t this year and next with inflation running so red hot and the Fed’s need to address it) Crypto goes down with it. If Coinbase for example fails, it wouldn’t lead to a bloodbath, slaughter is the more appropriate description because of it’s size and supposed reputation of “stable” or stability.

What would this do to Bitcoin itself? I think Bitcoin would survive, but it would trade cheap and take years, maybe decades if civilization lasts long enough, to recover to where it was last year. I think the U.S. government failed miserably in allowing the industry to thrive, never mind survive and Crypto will become the icon of excess and following failure of the everything bubble era. It will be a painful reminder, particularly for the young that there is a big fat difference between gambling and investing.

#160 The Regulator on 05.13.22 at 1:50 pm

# 95 – I see you still have a Russian e-mail address – Garth
Actually, my great-grandfather emigrated to the U.S.A. in the 1850’s. From Prussia!
# 106 – Crowdedwithyourrussiafobicinanecommentsadfinitemgetalifeguy : So you’re against peaceful dialogue then?

#161 Diamond Dog on 05.13.22 at 1:53 pm

#158 Doug in London on 05.13.22 at 1:03 pm

My bad, should have put in a hyphen line between what was said by #12 Quintilian on 05.12.22 at 2:45 pm and myself.

“It’s the greedy boomers with enough money and stupidity that jumped in.” – Quintilian

——

I didn’t actually say that but I did comment on it. If you read the rest of my comment, it will make sense to you now.

#162 Diamond Dog on 05.13.22 at 2:04 pm

#138 Quintilian on 05.13.22 at 9:50 am

https://www.yahoo.com/now/study-reveals-crypto-biggest-investors-132102315.html

#163 Midnight’s on 05.14.22 at 1:23 am

I Believe Don,
“Thanks for speaking FOR everyone.

Pierre and Justin are both false idols. They speak for themselves. Maybe you could phone the Conservative Party and ask for better choices than a lifelong instigator and truck convoy right wing nutbar bar and blowhard.”

Listen no idol worshiping here. People are installed not elected into high power positions. Look around, we are no Sovereign nation. We still report to the Queen. I post things that don’t get posted I’m well aware of the reality.
Rob Sterling and a lot others predicted things close enough to make you think twice. Would you ever think the scientific method would be thrown away, or having an opposing opinion would get Ostracized and ones medical license taken away. Suppression of news, suppression of medical information, suppression of votes. And if people think that’s false; try posting something on CBC, lmbo.