Yellow flags

One problem with writing this daily blog is remaining humble. So why bother?

You may recall the pushback from the steerage section when this site told you (in stark, Adele-disparaging terms) that (a) we’d hit peak house, (b) buying in Bunnypatch was a really dodgy idea because WFH can’t last, (c) rates were soon going up (a lot) and (d) it was genius to sell and risky to buy three months ago.

Where are we now?

A mess. Social media – like that loser community called Reddit – has lit up with stories of people who bought in Feb or March, haven’t closed yet and whose purchases are devaluing weekly. Appraisals are coming in under sale prices (routinely) and many cannot afford to consummate their transactions. People are saying they’ll walk away and lose deposits, without realizing there is so, so, so much more to forfeit if they don’t show up on closing day.

Offer nights have no offers. Sales are dropping everywhere. Mortgages are moving quickly towards 5%. The CB will raise all rates again in 21 days. Lenders have seen mortgage app volumes drop by over 40%. Approvals are harder to get. And a new set of anti-real estate laws and taxes are just now coming into effect.

Meanwhile people are being called back to work. The masks are dropping. Normalcy is returning to life, and all this extra social activity is adding to the fires of inflation. We are a long ways away from a rate ceiling, and once again the inverse relationship between real estate prices and interest rates will be on full display.

Yes, we told you all about it. This is what it looks like:

The correlation between rates and house prices is undeniable

Source: CREA, Statistics Canada, The Habistat

There’s a reason houses cost $220,000 throughout most of the 1990s, and are four times as expensive now. Mortgage rates topped 10% for most of that decade, down payments were higher and kids never expected to slide from being uni graduates to homeowners. Lately cheap 2% home loans allowed for a tsunami of debt, which escalated prices while tax-free real estate capital gains fomented speculation.

So when the cost of money inevitably reversed, high prices and historic debt are proving to be a toxic combo.

In addition to cheap rates and bad tax law we lost our minds during Covid. The exodus to the sticks was monumental, and a first in Canadian history. It reversed a century of social change as deluded Millennials convinced themselves they could find a decent latte in Ingersoll or work remotely forever from Squamish. It also destroyed – for a generation, perhaps – the quality of life in Bunnypatch, ripping apart the relationship between local incomes and local house prices.

Look at this. Unbelievable.

Here is what we did to poor Bunnypatch

Source: Canadian Real Estate Association, The Habistat

Here’s where some of the greatest personal financial carnage will occur. This pricing is unsustainable as jobs drift back to traditional workplaces and urban refugees realize what their odyssey cost – including diversity and career advancement. Some will stay in Hicksville and be content, of course. But many will list. And buyers will be sparse. Valuations will fall back to earth, where they belong.

So far, our yellow flags look prescient. Recent buyers may well fall into negative equity. Almost everywhere. In Vancouver, rockstar realtor Steve Saretsky has finally come to this conclusion:

“The highly levered Vancouver housing market is going to struggle with mortgage rates north of 4%. Need I remind you that in 2018, when mortgage rates were hovering around 3.5%, Greater Vancouver home sales slumped to an eighteen year low. Thus there should be no surprise that sales activity has fallen precipitously since the end of February, and April home sales fell 34% year-over-year. Prices need to adjust for the higher cost of borrowing. There are now signs that process is underway.”

Meanwhile politicians flail about, trying to blame money laundering, foreign buyers or monetary policy for the fact average people can no longer afford average homes. The fact remains that 50% of all sales are to new buyers and a majority of them are supported by the Bank of Mom, while 95% of all transactions are among resident Canadians, financed by domestic lenders. It’s also not just here. In America, Britain. Australia, NZ and much of the western world, housing costs have erupted during the pandemic. Canada just poses an extreme example of how humans can really screw something up.

The only question now: in a few months as prices tumble, will courage meet common sense, and buying begin anew?

Don’t hold your breath. Whining is easier.

About the picture: “Our beloved collie Danny, reflecting on politics, asking himself if he should run for office,” write Kris and Colleen. “After all, he has nice hair and a sunny disposition although his speech pattern can be somewhat disjointed… You are welcome to use this photo if you deem appropriate. Anything to brighten the mood .”

If you have a beast photo to share with the pack, send it along to “[email protected]” – Garth

163 comments ↓

#1 TurnerNation on 05.11.22 at 2:40 pm

Things are speeding ahead. The Long Game unfolding.
Look we got former PMs (B.M.), Blackrock bankers, Think tanks, et al pushing the 100 million population goal.
But where to live? How?

Governments exists only to fulfill the wills of the global corps. (Hence ‘mandates). Yep CV does all this too!

Steps 1 : The order all work at home
Step 2: The corps scoop up vacant space for pennies on the dollar.
Step 3: The government changes the laws.
Step 4: The space turns into residential and is rented or sold for great profit. Et , Tu Blackstone???

This country no longer exists. It was sold off long ago.

https://globalnews.ca/news/8792630/calgary-towers-office-to-residential-conversion-funding/
Trio of downtown towers get funds for office-to-residential conversions in Calgary — Trio of downtown towers get funds for office-to-residential conversions in Calgary

https://www.blogto.com/real-estate-toronto/2022/05/toronto-rent-crisis-turning-vacant-offices-into-apartments/
Experts say turning vacant Toronto offices into apartments could help solve the rent crisis

#2 Prince Polo on 05.11.22 at 2:42 pm

In a few months, FOOP (fear of over paying) will reign supreme!

While reading yesterday’s comments, I was struck with an epiphany of what should be Pierre’s nickname: the wink & the gun (tw&tg), since he gives me the impression of a stereotypical used car salesman……oh please let it be Charest! Otherwise, another 7yr of our illustrious Photo-op Minister.

#3 Shawn on 05.11.22 at 2:46 pm

“Don’t hold your breath. Whining is easier.”

It sure is. It seems like half the population is sure that Trudeau, the Bank of Canada and maybe the CBC ate their homework and their lunch.

It’s a contest to see which of the three triggers them worse when mentioned.

At least it’s entertaining although depressing.

#4 Ponzius Pilatus on 05.11.22 at 2:46 pm

I’ve seen hell on Earth.
It’s the 401 leading in and out of Toronto.
IHTC9, you’re right.
Torontonians must not be very smart.
Ticked Niagara Falls off my Bucket List.

#5 Guy in Calgary on 05.11.22 at 2:47 pm

Overpaying for houses in the burbs and owning collapsing digital tokens. The millennial way.

#6 Hans on 05.11.22 at 2:50 pm

The escalation of rents in the bunny patch is something that’s also interesting to watch. Houses in my area went from $1800/month to $3K/month… and being built after 2018 means that rent controls don’t apply. Even if houses drop, how do rents drop? People who bought in at peak or near peak won’t adjust rent prices down because they really can’t, and the rental shortage still exists across most markets… so in the end, renters end up in a tighter spot imo.

#7 Richard L on 05.11.22 at 2:53 pm

Much better today Garth. This is the kind of information I look to you to provide. Thanks.

Better than what? – Garth

#8 Ponzius Pilatus on 05.11.22 at 2:55 pm

#193 IHCTD9 on 05.11.22 at 11:31 am
1.989 out in the boondocks now. No one seems to be growling too much about it yet – even though just about everyone out here drives a honkin’ big 4×4.
————————-
The end is neigh.
Reserve your Nissan Micra now.
But, you gotta lose some weight first.
Btw, filled up for 1.85, somewhere around Kingston.

#9 None on 05.11.22 at 2:57 pm

And for those that say people will swoop in when houses fall 25%… how will they buy them then? They will still be unaffordable and the bank of mom and dad will also have just lost 25% of their equity.

#10 Linda on 05.11.22 at 2:57 pm

I’d vote for ‘Danny’! What’s not to like? Good looks, sunny disposition, calm demeanor & can always be good for a hug, scritch & a walk to lighten the mood when times are rough:)

Given the rough RE seas ahead best have the lawyers on speed dial, because you know there is going to be a lot of attempted welshing going on. It will be quite the financial bloodbath. This presumes that those who are in the hinterlands don’t decide to live with long daily commutes & continue to eschew the urban life by necessity or choice. Because can’t see folks being willing to take the necessary financial haircut to offload the rural abode. Moving back to the city is all very well, but there are all those pesky competitors looking for digs as well. Rents were going up even as folks fled to the hinterlands. Can not imagine just how much rents will jump if all who fled now try to return. Eek!

#11 baloney Sandwitch on 05.11.22 at 2:58 pm

Bubble bursting. Not only for RE but all pandemic stocks.
Take a look at these charts.
Pandemic stocks getting taken to the woodshed. https://awealthofcommonsense.com/2022/05/15-of-the-craziest-charts-right-now/
There will be opportunities in the carnage in a few months.

#12 alexinvestor on 05.11.22 at 3:04 pm

Mandate 2 of the BOC: The Bank promotes safe, sound and efficient financial systems within Canada and internationally.

It’s absolute part of the mandate of the BOC to make sure that the banks’ capital requirements are appropriate because letting people leverage as much as possible would not lead to a safe or sound financial system. Of course, the BOC doesn’t care how much I personally borrow, but it should care about how much debt there is in the system because high debt levels are unsound and unsafe.

I didn’t write the BOC mandate, but it’s there and they need to follow it (unless the BOC truly believe debt levels don’t matter … in which cause, yikes !).

#13 Søren Angst on 05.11.22 at 3:04 pm

Payback is a female dog Garth.

Today was a good day to do it and reality bites in the pockets of the soon to be FORMER “paper millionaires” of Cdn RE.

Worse if they used that to finance their lifestyle using HELOCs or the like.

Too bad. Too sad. For them.

Reckless endeavours seldom come to a good end. What goes up, must come down and today you described it well,

GRAVITY.

———————–

Yet another generation or two learn:

It ISN’T DIFFERENT this time. Same dung, different pile.

#14 The Regulator on 05.11.22 at 3:08 pm

Sadly, the politicians of the 3 main parties, who answer to “the man” share the blame for this fiasco. Who catered to the lowest common denominators of the people : greed and naivity. Whose heads will be demanded when this Hindenburg crashes and burns? Look in the mirror before you answer.

#15 twisted_sisters on 05.11.22 at 3:09 pm

‘ Offer nights have no offers. Sales are dropping everywhere. Mortgages are moving quickly towards 5%. The CB will raise all rates again in 21 days. Lenders have seen mortgage app volumes drop by over 40%. Approvals are harder to get. And a new set of anti-real estate laws and taxes are just now coming into effect.’
‐‐–‐————-‐—————————————————–
And from where I come from, we call that a recessionary effect. Gas prices > $2/L well let’s see… I cut in my Starbucks double latte..no this no that, extra w’evertf. I cut on my expensive Pino griggio, my t-bone steaks to once a week and many other pleasures I sometimes enjoy till T2 opens up the fck’n pipelines or wait till every boomer is forced into a ev? I don’t think so.

#16 Frank on 05.11.22 at 3:12 pm

Garth people are still stupid and paying over asking. This weekend a condo I liked was listed for 795k. My agent said to not put an offer until the day after bid day. Lucky cause someone paid 930k. Why. Why Why

Did it sell for more than recent comps? If not it was a bait-and-switch price. – Garth

#17 The Regulator on 05.11.22 at 3:13 pm

Mabey Blackstone, Vanguard, and Statestreet can pick up the slack. For pennies on the dollar, of course. They may be evil, but they’re not stupid.

No corp is stupid enough to buy houses at prices which will yield negative cash flow. Canadians are so naive. – Garth

#18 THE DANDADA on 05.11.22 at 3:15 pm

Thats how a capitalist society works.

Buyers/Sellers
Losers/Winners
FOMO/YOLO

It’s a zero sum game.

…….and its only money. Just ink and paper.

#19 Philco on 05.11.22 at 3:15 pm

#1 TurnerNation on 05.11.22 at 2:40 pm
Things are speeding ahead. The Long Game unfolding.
Look we got former PMs (B.M.), Blackrock bankers, Think tanks, et al pushing the 100 million population goal.
But where to live? How?
———————————
These people and plans are scary as hell.
They push green and sustainability…Retarded.
Makes me wanna sell out and go hide in another country off the radar. CONTROL AND GREED rules the day.
Oh well I push on paying a shit ton of taxes to keep the mad machine moving….for now.
So many clueless people to the deterioration of humanity.
Thank god for Elon. But now he’s evil ?!!! LOL
Once the powers that be can’t control the narrative they lose there shit.
Elon for president USA!

#20 Søren Angst on 05.11.22 at 3:16 pm

#5 Guy in Calgary

That was good.

————————

What a difference 0.2% makes.

US CPI slightly down from 8.5% in Mar to 8.3% in Apr.

Mr. Market, save the Nasdaq and TWTR, loved it. So did I and my very + Threadbare Portfolio.

Rate of inflation down by 75% from Feb-Mar at 1.2% m/m to Mar-Apr 0.3% m/m.

Still, y/y increases are high to downright crippling. Check out Fuel Oil, exacerbated by Europe shortages (scroll to Table A):

https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm

—–

“Now this is not the end. It is not even the beginning of the end. But it is, perhaps, the end of the beginning.” – Churchill

It’s going to be a long, long road back 2.5% inflation Nirvana folks. Many, many more casualties to come.

Creative Destruction unfolding in front of everyone’s eyes.

#21 miketheengineer on 05.11.22 at 3:25 pm

Garth et al:

I was looking at homes in the bunny patch. Prices are high no doubt. Everything that I liked, and fixed up good, sold quickly, back in March when I first looked. I did find an amazing century home, that had me drooling. However, in bunny patch at 1 million, I could not justify taking on mortgage right now. Other homes sold super fast. I don’t know what is going on, but what ever I saw that I wanted was either too expensive, and I could not justify the purchase or it was sold very quickly if I could afford it.

Question for you Mr. Garth, holder of the crystal ball, knower of all knowledge.

With gas at 2 plus bucks a liter, where do you see this going, for the economy, and for individuals. How high are people who know “stuff” talking for gas to go? Will this price hike break the lower wage earners? Will the country suffer damage as families and single moms struggle to purchase groceries?

Do you see people walking up to your front door, claiming they are hungry and asking for handouts….or following you back to your car and asking for some of your groceries as you leave the food store?

Will the government come in and do something? If so, what?

Please share us your insite, as you have been spot on in the past.

Michael

#22 schadenfreude on 05.11.22 at 3:26 pm

@ #7 Richard L – This is the kind of information I look to you to provide. Thanks.

Better than what? – Garth
________________________________________
Aghhaaa!… ahhh that is just priceless.

#23 Doug t on 05.11.22 at 3:28 pm

THIS IS MADNESS I TELL YOU – MADNESS

next few years are going to be ruff

#24 Caffeine Monkey on 05.11.22 at 3:33 pm

Here’s a thought: there should be an HGTV ETF. I don’t mean an ETF that tracks the value of the tv channel HGTV or its parent company, but one that tracks the consumer products it promotes. I’m talking companies that sell stone countertops, steel appliances, Viking ranges, outdoor kitchen gear, and all the other crap people buy to impress the other #winemoms in their social circle.

Then someone needs to come out with an ETF that *shorts* that ETF. That’s the one I’m buying.

#25 Shawn on 05.11.22 at 3:35 pm

Dividend Increases Excite Investors

It is interesting that dividend increases excite investors so much. If you think of a corporation you own shares in as a sort of bank account that pays “interest” in the form of earnings that grow your balance, then a higher dividend is logically of no more benefit than if you remove money from any other bank account you own.

If you think highly of the management of a company you own and think they can invest your money profitably in growth why in the world would you want them to hand back some of your investment to you?

Especially weird was the old REIT model of paying out 100% of free cash flow and then issuing new shares to fund growth. Money out with one hand and back in with the other. Suck, blow. It only worked because investors are dumb as posts and the unit price got pumped up by paying the high distributions. RioCan for one is now going to pay out only 60% or so of free cash flow.

#26 Squire on 05.11.22 at 3:39 pm

Canadian’s are a glutton for punishment. From choosing wrong politicians, overpriced homes etc. Covid has really exposed the nuts. How sad.

#27 Well travelled on 05.11.22 at 3:40 pm

You definitely called it Garth! Now the only questions are, how far do house prices fall until they hit a bottom and how many years will it be until they start to rise once again.

#28 Philco on 05.11.22 at 3:40 pm

#193 IHCTD9 on 05.11.22 at 11:31 am
===================
Duramax = $240
Tundra = $200
Case 580 = $240
SR250 Skiddy = $220
Nissan Leaf Plus = $5.50 in the garage. Cant move much dirt though. lol

#29 Quintilian on 05.11.22 at 3:42 pm

“Canada just poses an extreme example of how humans can really screw something up.”

Give us so me credit, at least we voted in the right government.

Our collective wisdom is still ok

#30 Søren Angst on 05.11.22 at 3:46 pm

#16 Caffeine Monkey

That was good.

Though you can jump in right now, it’s called ANY ETF THAT TRACKS THE

NASDAQ.

#31 Shawn on 05.11.22 at 3:50 pm

Inflation – and GDP – Something must Give

If prices are up some 7% and wages maybe 3% at best on average then we have a problem.

The Volume of purcahses which is what GDP measures will have to fall say 4% unless people will just borrow the 4% or draw down savings. But those that have no savings and need to borrow are already largely tapped out. And Banks must be getting hesitant to lend?

I suspect GDP has to fall somewhat and credit card delinquencies have to rise.

What are the discretionary categories that will be cut? Linda suggested Starbucks. Maybe also ordering in food? Netflix and cable and entertainment subscriptions of all kinds will be a target for reduction.

Will vacations get the axe in some households?

New car can wait?

What other areas?

What is all this about excess demand when half the population or more is feeling squeezed and needs to cut back? Has no choice but to cut back.

The movie of life continues.

#32 KB on 05.11.22 at 3:53 pm

This rapid price drop seems to be happening in HCOL cities (Vancouver, Toronto). I don’t believe this has happened yet in MCOL cities (Montreal for example). Is this likely to follow?

#33 schadenfreude on 05.11.22 at 3:54 pm

@TurnerN…
This country no longer exists. It was sold off long ago.
——————————————————————–
This 100ppl with immigration policy is again a stupid concotion from dimwitted politicians and their think-tanks.

Just look at the US, do you see those immigrants a lot more happier than the sh*th*le countries they came from. Not from what is observed and written about.

no, the real solution is that something will have to change within the very early eduction of the citizens born and raised in Canada. It has to go back to the industrialized education system of the last 200 years and instead of teaching kids to become snow-flakes, arm-chair warriors, etc…we teach them what real work is. This means there will be do-ers,labourers that are badly lacking at this moment.No more free methadone and buprenorphine amongst so many other useless policies, if you know what I mean.

Aristotle once said, “Those who educate children well are more to be honored than they who produce them; for these only gave them life, those the art of living well.”
and

“The habits we form from childhood make no small difference, but rather they make all the difference.”

Speaking of schooling, no educated man would call the places where others call home “shitholes.” Shame on you. – Garth

#34 IHCTD9 on 05.11.22 at 3:59 pm

I remember a few years back I’d be on here gleefully tormenting the steerage section urbanites who were committing Seppuku trying to afford some decent GTA digs.

Then Covid hit, and us peaceful camo-clad freedom fighters were invaded by hoards of demented Metro escapees swooping down from the West. We did everything we could to try and keep them out, but there were too many. Plus they had tons of money. They rampaged through the local MLS and went hog-wild bidding up everything available. Just like that, local house prices nearly doubled.

We’ll see where it goes now. They’re all settled in and it’ll be tough for them to go back to hell on earth now after getting a taste of the good life. IMHO, they’re going fight tooth and nail to stay. The specuvestors and M+P LL’s though… They paid ultra top dollar, and if they aren’t cash flowing they won’t have the option to fall back on appreciation out here – unless they’re willing to wait decades. It’ll become a dud investment literally overnight. Plus a lot of new local regs got hatched at City Hall early this year – all aimed at the new set of absent LL’s.

It’ll likely get pretty ugly in the sticks, but for those of us who were already here, it’s all good news.

#35 Philco on 05.11.22 at 4:02 pm

#24 Caffeine Monkey on 05.11.22 at 3:33 pm
—————————
Bubble TV got them there Monkey.
Monkey see Monkey doo doo in their pants :-)

#36 Søren Angst on 05.11.22 at 4:02 pm

Well, God or the Big Electron, decided to turn Summer on here in NE Italia. Temp deg C forecasts for the next few days starting today *

28, 28, 28, 26, 29, 30, 29, 29, 29, 30

Eat your hearts the Great White or Soggy North.

Not called Sunny Italy for nothing. 😎 🌞

—————–

* Sadly, the Nordics today figured it out (e.g., Aftonbladet) and are coming.

Tweeted to all of Sweden today to come dressed and not nude sunbathe on our beaches, you are scaring our Nonne. And for the Love of God, DO NOT wear socks with your sandals on the beach like the Germans do. 🙏

#37 Overheardyou on 05.11.22 at 4:03 pm

There was no reddit in the 90s, perhaps this will exacerbate the decline as fear spreads much better online. Good luck recent buyers

#38 dave on 05.11.22 at 4:07 pm

When are we seeing 30% correction?

#39 TurnerNation on 05.11.22 at 4:09 pm

As soon as PP gets elected and D. Ford re-elected we’ll be going back to 2019 Normal.
KIDDING! Of course they will kick the globalist agenda for post-national state known as ‘Kanada’, into Hyperdrive. It’s all a done deal this is theatre.

Ps. how do I know Ford will be in again? Simple. This one HEADline. Designed to get into your head:

. Ontario liberals say they will add COVID jabs to mandatory school children immunization (westphaliantimes.com)


—We already live under socialism it’s just more hidden.
Business owners pay their front line workers the bare minimum and let customers make up the shortfall via tips. It’s possible to get a job with a public union and coast, cradle-to-grave with State education/income/benefits/pension.


–“We locked down and destroyed small business to save Grandpa!” .The young must never again known normalcy.

https://calgaryherald.com/news/local-news/alberta-sees-massive-increase-in-deaths-among-youth-during-pandemic-study
Alberta sees ‘massive increase’ in deaths among youth during pandemic: study
‘Increase in all-cause excess deaths was proportionately higher, and in significantly greater numbers, in the younger age groups’

— Science in Kanada. The best that money can buy

https://nationalpost.com/health/scientists-question-the-point-of-swabs-up-everyones-nose-we-might-have-overdone-it
“Scientists question the point of swabs up everyone’s nose: ‘We might have overdone it’
‘The claim was that (mass testing) would stop the pandemic in its tracks … and it hasn’t'”

#40 Ustabe on 05.11.22 at 4:13 pm

#4 Ponzius Pilatus on 05.11.22 at 2:46 pm

I’ve seen hell on Earth.
It’s the 401 leading in and out of Toronto.
IHTC9, you’re right.
Torontonians must not be very smart.
Ticked Niagara Falls off my Bucket List

Go to Northwest Territories, spend a bit of time, you can see all these waterfalls in a week although with side trips and days of rest by a lake we generally take a month. UNESCO World Heritage sites some of them.

Alexandra Falls. Alexandra Falls stands 32 meters (106 feet) above the Hay River…
Louise Falls. …
Lady Evelyn Falls. …
Little Buffalo River Falls. …
Sambaa Deh Falls and Coral Falls. …
Cameron Falls.

You will not even think of Niagara Falls again. No wax museum tho, just Canada and some of the nicest people you could want to meet. Definitely no 401.

#41 Old Ron on 05.11.22 at 4:18 pm

Toronto folks drank the Kool Aid. World Class Flop House.
After all we are the 32nd busiest airport in the world (Meaning we are a back water )

#42 Ballingsford on 05.11.22 at 4:21 pm

I thought the homes that were purchased by investors and rented out would have ‘for sale’ signs on them now. They either think the homes are still going to appreciate or maybe they know nobody is buying now.

Or they are still in the one year tenancy agreements.

Patience. – Garth

#43 IHCTD9 on 05.11.22 at 4:26 pm

#4 Ponzius Pilatus on 05.11.22 at 2:46 pm
I’ve seen hell on Earth.
It’s the 401 leading in and out of Toronto.
IHTC9, you’re right.
Torontonians must not be very smart.
Ticked Niagara Falls off my Bucket List.
_______

Well you must have whizzed right by me today Ponzie. I live just outside the Easterly gates of Hell. You should have stopped in and we could have pooled our cash to buy a beer.

Hope you enjoyed the Falls:)

#44 Philco on 05.11.22 at 4:31 pm

#29 Quintilian on 05.11.22 at 3:42 pm
“Canada just poses an extreme example of how humans can really screw something up.”

Give us so me credit, at least we voted in the right government.
Our collective wisdom is still ok
—————————————————————–
LOLOLOLOLOLOL
Did you NOT hear. More debt added that all others combined?
Was not necessary and we have 2 financial illiterates at the helm.
Your a beauty dude.
Just Imagine if we had a fiscally responsible gov that didn’t promise endless pony’s? Get your A to work! There’s lots out there.
We are a long ways from the RIGHT gov bro.

#45 twisted_sisters on 05.11.22 at 4:47 pm

@#17 The Regulator

‘No corp is stupid enough to buy houses at prices which will yield negative cash flow. Canadians are so naive. – Garth’
—————————————————————–
Whenever I hear comments like that, I put on my thinking cap

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FSVHaRLXIAUdelT?format=jpg&name=900×900

I hope that made sense to you. – Garth

#46 45north on 05.11.22 at 4:48 pm

“The highly levered Vancouver housing market is going to struggle with mortgage rates north of 4%. Need I remind you that in 2018, when mortgage rates were hovering around 3.5%, Greater Vancouver home sales slumped to an eighteen year low. Thus there should be no surprise that sales activity has fallen precipitously since the end of February, and April home sales fell 34% year-over-year. Prices need to adjust for the higher cost of borrowing. There are now signs that process is underway.”

a theory: BC Assessment assigns a value to a property every year while Ontario’s MPAC assigns a value every four years. So in BC, the banks just do an SQL query while in Ontario, the banks have to hire their own assessors.

#47 BC_Doc on 05.11.22 at 4:55 pm

Reversion to the Mean (RTM) appears to be under way in all three asset categories: real estate, equities, and fixed income.

#48 twisted_sisters on 05.11.22 at 4:56 pm

I forgot, does anyone know if there is an NFT of this t-shirt yet? Could be a triple bagger someday.

https://www.moteefe.com/limited-gbh?color=forest-green&product=men-s-t-shirt

#49 Mr Fox on 05.11.22 at 4:56 pm

(c) rates were soon going up (a lot)

Just one thought: rates went up a little until now and the market is at its levels of 1 year ago. If the rates are going to be triple their current levels, should we expect the market to go down another two times its current loss levels?

The reference was to 2% mortgages now pushing 5% (on their way higher). The equity market drop is almost over, it seems. – Garth

#50 Faron on 05.11.22 at 4:57 pm

201 Sail Away on 05.11.22 at 12:31 pm

Hacking at someone’s mental health. Hmmm. Ad hominem. Insensitive. Disrespectful. Etc.

You’ve done this to others long before I came around. Perhaps pausing to consider that I treat Sail Away the way I do because of Sail Away’s actions would be wise.

#51 Sail Away on 05.11.22 at 4:59 pm

#30 Søren Angst on 05.11.22 at 3:46 pm

…you can jump in right now, it’s called ANY ETF THAT TRACKS THE NASDAQ.

——-

Yep

#52 dosouth on 05.11.22 at 5:04 pm

Garth this is another prescent post. We have a lifelong friend who financed their daughter and son-in-law with 2 young kids. March to be exact. Pressing the FOMO hard on the parents. A duplex, shady part of town, 32% over assessed and now….. not good.

Gave them your blog address at least 6-7 times over the past year but alas they are hooped. House needs major repairs, they missed the “get out of the contract” time frame and now looking to blame everyone but themselves. Parents used to own their home, now liens and legal stuff.

No good deed goes unpunished. Although we’ve bought and sold a few houses in our time, hit a few bumps along he way and learned, we know nothing. (sigh…)

#53 Faron on 05.11.22 at 5:06 pm

#11 baloney Sandwitch on 05.11.22 at 2:58 pm
Bubble bursting. Not only for RE but all pandemic stocks.
Take a look at these charts.
Pandemic stocks getting taken to the woodshed. https://awealthofcommonsense.com/2022/05/15-of-the-craziest-charts-right-now/
There will be opportunities in the carnage in a few months.

Yep, getting there. ARKK touching COVID lows (76% off ATH). Bitcoin faltering. The king COVID pump stock has yet to die. When it does, time to rush in for bargoons. Could take a while. Many will be woodchipped.

#54 Philco on 05.11.22 at 5:09 pm

#42 Ballingsford on 05.11.22 at 4:21 pm
I thought the homes that were purchased by investors and rented out would have ‘for sale’ signs on them now. They either think the homes are still going to appreciate or maybe they know nobody is buying now.

Or they are still in the one year tenancy agreements.

Patience. – Garth
———————-
All depends on where they bought.
If you in the red monthly you doo dooed in your pants.
Then your not an investor your a clueless specker.
Fools rush in and now the tides going out we will see who still has their panties on.

#55 schadenfreude on 05.11.22 at 5:15 pm

‘Speaking of schooling, no educated man would call the places where others call home “shitholes.” Shame on you.’ – Garth
______________________________________________
I was lucky enough to get my education at at time when my parents gave me birth but had to leave one of those sh*th*les.

The deceit, lies and subsequently overall corruption by a political class and their backers which led that population astray is eerily prescient to what we may face someday.

Just apologize. We do not talk that way on this site. – Garth

#56 The Regulator on 05.11.22 at 5:20 pm

Mario Draghi just said : “Nobody ever said anything about whether rubles payments breach sanctions or not, how these payments are organized. So it’s such a grey zone here”.
Meanwhile, on April 27, unelected E.U. commission president Ursula von Der Leyen specifically warned companies not to pay for gas in rubles. “That would be a breach of sanctions, so a high risk for the companies”.
Draghi also quipped : “As a matter of fact, most importers have already opened an account in rubles with Gazprom”. Ruble $ 66.7500 to 1 greenback.

I notice you have a Russian email address. – Garth

#57 Mr Fox on 05.11.22 at 5:24 pm

The reference was to 2% mortgages now pushing 5% (on their way higher). The equity market drop is almost over, it seems. – Garth

Lately I’ve been looking at the index charts and it seems the investors are very confused. Some buy others sell. But I’ve seen this pattern before: when the fear is close to switch to greed. Maybe that explains why I’ve been very relaxed about seeing the market dropping lately.

#58 NOSTRADAMUS on 05.11.22 at 5:30 pm

STEADY LADS.
Housing inflation, MMMM- – – Now it’s over. It’s the next morning and bad breath, Yuk! The worst CPI in 40 years, spiking interest rates to deal with inflation. And more than a bit worrisome deflating asset bubbles. The hot air is hissing out of stocks, bonds and cryptos, along with housing, which is very slow moving and is now getting in line. In addition, I see zombies, financially dead people walking about aimlessly muttering, It’s not my fault, it’s not my fault. Steady Lads.

#59 Catalyst on 05.11.22 at 5:33 pm

There are some signs of softening but I am also seeing houses selling for over asking at inflated prices and shaking my head. Either some people haven’t gotten the memo or the hit to prices won’t be as big as some think.

Rental rates are also increasing rapidly so I think this provides some further support to prices.

#60 Bob Loblaw on 05.11.22 at 5:40 pm

Garth seems to think real estate can’t go down much in Toronto. I think he’s wrong. After rising 300% in 20 years it should drop at least 50-70% to be more in line with incomes. I also think he’s wrong about WFH, he has a typical boomer mentality that one must be chained to a cubicle to be productive. Meanwhile the companies of the future like Air BnB are letting people work wherever they want. These companies will save bigly on office related expenses and most of their employees will be happier and more productive. And yes, it’s not just Canada that has a real estate bubble, America has one too, but the average home price in Canada is twice America’s despite the average after tax income in Canada being significantly lower than America. That’s absolutely insane.

#61 Blacksheep on 05.11.22 at 5:42 pm

Ballingsford # 42,

“I thought the homes that were purchased by investors and rented out would have ‘for sale’ signs on them now. They either think the homes are still going to appreciate or maybe they know nobody is buying now.

Or they are still in the one year tenancy agreements.”

“Patience. – Garth”
———————————————-
I talk regularly with my Realtor whom is involved in the South Asian culture here in the Fraser Valley and this why investment / rented houses are not coming on to market in groves.

It’s because the financing can be based on the ‘servicing of interest only debts’, while ignoring the principle sum owed on a property. So just tying up the property, while throwing off positive cash flow while the investor simply waits until the home appreciates. Current market value fluctuations are irrelevant as the long game is whats being played here.

Another source with a similar story, a South Asian Customer I have that plays with RE as a sideline, told me straight up, for 10K cash on the side, he knows a mortgage broker that can get almost any financing arranged I want, way beyond what any commercial bank would ever consider.

We wonder why some folks have been able to accumulate multiple properties when only earning journeyman’s income. When I hear stories like these, I understand how.

There are those whom use creative finance to gain wealth quickly knowing inflation is typically constant and then there is the rest of us dummies that follow all the rules and indenture ourselves to a lifelong death loan….

#62 Wolf Fox on 05.11.22 at 5:42 pm

Crypto prices are dropping hard, just like rural Ontario real estate prices.
Buy the dip and HODL? Or no?

#63 Mehling on 05.11.22 at 5:46 pm

https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/feds-approve-new-10b-loan-guarantee-for-trans-mountain-1.1764581

What a disaster, but one would expect nothing less of the current administration.

I really feel for Gen Z and the mills.

They may be paying a 55- 60% marginal tax rate in the years ahead.

#64 Concerned Citizen on 05.11.22 at 5:50 pm

In my neck of the woods, prices are ~60% higher than 2 years ago, and show no sign of coming down. If anything they’re more expensive now than a few months ago since interest rates are off the floor.

I’ll believe it when I see it. A modest 10% correction won’t do a thing for affordability. We need a deep, thorough cleansing of the market. I highly doubt that will be allowed.

#65 schadenfreude on 05.11.22 at 5:52 pm

I apologize mostly for having not voted the last two elections. I apologize for not ever donating to a party member who’s core values , I will now donate to a party member for the first time in my life, whose core values reflected mine in regards to democracy. Shame on all those Canadian elected officials that accepted contributions and failed his/her consituents by standing by that ignorant leader.
And finally, I aplolgize for not finding the appropriate synonym to an offending word which describes so perfectly the state of affairs of certain failed states – stirrings of a revolution an option or not.

Aristotle, in Part V of ‘Polities’, offers two-fold meaning of revolution.

Firstly, A revolution means any major or minor change in the constitution.

Secondly, A revolution is also said to have occurred if ruling power has been transferred, even if the constitution remains the same.

Thirdly, General causes of revolution include the desire of the people to be treated as equal.

#66 Bunnypatch Watcher on 05.11.22 at 5:55 pm

‘It also destroyed – for a generation, perhaps – the quality of life in Bunnypatch, ripping apart the relationship between local incomes and local house prices.’

————-

According to past history, and your thoughts, prices in the bunny patch will collapses first and the fastest.

Why will that destroy the quality of life in the bunny patch for a generation if prices recede the quickest?

Or are you assuming that it will be a slow melt for many many years in the bunny patch?

This bunny patch watcher wants to know…

#67 crowdedelevatorfartz on 05.11.22 at 5:56 pm

@#30 Soren.
” And for the Love of God, DO NOT wear socks with your sandals on the beach like the Germans do. ”

+++
Italian Nude beach rules?

#68 Ponnaps on 05.11.22 at 6:06 pm

Just apologize. We do not talk that way on this site. – Garth

you are being too kind…

#69 WTF on 05.11.22 at 6:07 pm

Ahhh Ha Ha

#56 Ivan the Putin Lackey trolling a Canadian Financial blog.

Pathetic.

Maybe Tell your boss Little Vlad to stop murdering innocent people in other countries.

Just Back from Halifax, a yuuuge Ukrainian flag hanging from the Angus L Mac Donald Bridge.

#70 Reality Check on 05.11.22 at 6:09 pm

Oh look, in the few years Trudeau has been in power he has managed to double house prices.

And he’s the guy people voted in to make housing affordable again.

We truly get the politicians we deserve.

(Plus, off the corner of his desk, he managed to double federal debt)

The feds are not solely responsible for house prices. Nor will anyone in office fix them. Voters demanding affordability are fools until we all change behaviours and expectations. – Garth

#71 Ponzius Pilatus on 05.11.22 at 6:17 pm

67 crowdedelevatorfartz on 05.11.22 at 5:56 pm
@#30 Soren.
” And for the Love of God, DO NOT wear socks with your sandals on the beach like the Germans do. ”

+++
Italian Nude beach rules?
——————————
Haha,
I can just imagine Dolce hanging out on the beach, trying to blend in with the Italian studs.
Mama Mia.

#72 The Regulator on 05.11.22 at 6:20 pm

# 56- I notice you have a Russian e-mail address. Dear Garth : I am Canadian, but I find Russian culture enlightening. Also, Google/Alphabet isn’t my cup of tea. By the way, Nester Pistor is entertaining Edmontonians next month at a local legion :) Mabey c u there?

#73 Love_Crypto on 05.11.22 at 6:23 pm

I’m wondering who we will be the first politician to not only promise $1/BEER but also a $1/L of gas?? I don’t care what the barrel of oil settles for, isn’t this a Canadian natural resource that we can all rally for? Venuzuela has had riots because the price of gas would go from 4cents/L to 5cents. And apparently we can’t even buy anything anymore in the local economy for 5cents! So If I just round up 20 of those NICKELS, I can get 1L of gas. What a concept!?

#74 Linda on 05.11.22 at 6:23 pm

Folks complaining about gasoline prices. They are not used to having to pay so much. Given the lack of support for new pipelines etc. all I can say is get used to the new normal. Or pony up & purchase a hybrid or electric vehicle to commute in – if, that is, you can actually find one available for purchase. Yes, the dealer may take your order. Does not mean the dealer has that vehicle in stock.

#75 rknusa on 05.11.22 at 6:25 pm

the narrative on this blog is quite a bit different than what is being reported just in the last week or two

market is still an insane sellers market

https://globalnews.ca/news/8793552/halifax-real-estate-market-april-2022/

https://globalnews.ca/news/8784773/home-prices-london-canada-stay-high-interest-rates-rising/

And what are the ‘expert’ sources for those stories? Oh, look. Realtors. – Garth

#76 Philco on 05.11.22 at 6:40 pm

#60 Bob Loblaw on 05.11.22 at 5:40 pm
Garth seems to think real estate can’t go down much in Toronto. I think he’s wrong.
——————————-
The garbage could take a good hit not 70 though…..I don’t know the market there but a 2x10s $34 (we live in a rain forest lol) and we are in desperate need of housing. Its shocking actually. EVERYwhere I go there are new houses EVEYWHERE.
So….Income falls behind everything. Means nothing. Go grab steak and lobster. Welcome the the magic of the best hidden tax! the gov loves. INFLATION as long as they don’t blow up the farm.
Fuel prices dictate a lot. We are never going back to $1 liter maybe not $1.50.
$300 sq ft is min building cost that’s never going down unless we roll into a depression. $300 cheap these days..

The US blew up because the defaults back then. We are in pretty dam good financial shape. That was not true back then. If you could fog a mirror you could get 100% financing..
Canada wide Id guess maybe 15-20% but god knows for sure.
I got multiple props 14 incl my stratus and never sell just add if deals come by.
I’m building 3 building but not residential. Yuk. lol Milling my own trees to keep it sane. Sh!t my drawers on the truss quote and metal for 1 building $165,000. No way around that bill. Giddy up. :-)

#77 jess on 05.11.22 at 6:57 pm

6 Hans on 05.11.22 at 2:50 pm
how many renters do you think have 3000k for rent + utilities? Renters are negotiating down.

#78 Karl hungus on 05.11.22 at 7:03 pm

Got offered 5 year fixed at 4.04 or 5 year variable at 2.25. Im going variable. Recession right around the corner

#79 jess on 05.11.22 at 7:08 pm

Obama to Donald Trump: “The hedge fund guys are getting away with murder” to Biden

On paper, this payment system­—­­dub­bed “2 and 20”
Since the loophole was originally ­created through the IRS’s rulemaking ­process, it could theoretically be ­reversed the same way.

… private equity …is that power is expressed in the rules not made and the votes not taken.

https://www.motherjones.com/politics/2022/05/carried-interest-loophole-biden-trump-private-equity-tax-break/

#80 Bank of Dad on 05.11.22 at 7:27 pm

The fact remains that 50% of all sales are to new buyers and a majority of them are supported by the Bank of Mom.

———-

More like the Bank of Dad…. Dumb and Dummer!

#81 Okotoks Matt. on 05.11.22 at 7:34 pm

Why all the fuss about real estate? After 10 years of flat real estate prices in Alberta we are finally going up in value this year. Canada is in fiscal trouble and will badly need oil, gas and other resources to be developed. Advantage Alberta.
Alberta should have a $15 billion surplus this year. Real estate is relatively affordable and incomes are close to $30,000 per household higher than Ontario. Things would really take off if we didn’t have urban Laurentians dragging us down with their anti-West policies.
Jean Charest can’t win as PM. He is an ethically challenged Montrealer and would lose 30 seats in the west. I don’t think Quebecers like him that much either.
It is either PP or Justin/Jagmeet in the next election federally. Laurentia can chose economic growth and prosperity (PP) or Justin. Just don’t expect a unified Canada if you keep voting the same.

You guys sure make a lot of threats. Getting old. – Garth

#82 pPrasseur on 05.11.22 at 7:38 pm

Meanwhile politicians flail about, trying to blame money laundering, foreign buyers or monetary policy for the fact average people can no longer afford average homes.

If you don’t blame monetary policy for the mess we’re in then you have not been paying attention.

https://americanmind.org/memo/stagflation/

#83 Ms. REITman on 05.11.22 at 7:39 pm

#6 Hans on 05.11.22 at 2:50 pm

The escalation of rents in the bunny patch is something that’s also interesting to watch. Houses in my area went from $1800/month to $3K/month… and being built after 2018 means that rent controls don’t apply. Even if houses drop, how do rents drop? People who bought in at peak or near peak won’t adjust rent prices down because they really can’t, and the rental shortage still exists across most markets… so in the end, renters end up in a tighter spot imo.

——

Very good, Hans.

So if you had listened to me 6 months ago, you would have stuffed your stocking with REITs as I had advised. Tons more renters who can’t afford houses…. And will shy away from the carnage if they could.

Properties themselves based on cash flow, not fomo or foop. And all properties based on super low long term mortgages negotiated by the managers, paying outsized dividends for years to come.

#84 cuke and tomato picker on 05.11.22 at 7:41 pm

Interesting we have just got a second notice that the
District of Central Saanich have re -designated our area from residential to multi unit residential. We will be able to have public input at three open houses. They want apartments and townhouses to provide housing for workers because we have a big industrial area
nearby. We are very happy hear but we may be able to cash out for the fifth time and move on. We live several
km from the industrial area.

#85 Tom on 05.11.22 at 7:42 pm

Many people were misled on housing and the economy. When interest rates kept dropping and went close to zero, many maxed out their borrowing when the Bank of Canada said interest rates would stay low for a long time. Now two years later they will be tripled and that may not even be enough to reduce inflation. Those with variable mortgages or mortgage renewals coming up will be in trouble and forced to sell or default. Some will struggle and pay up but won’t be able to spend in other areas of the economy.

People predicted there would be a boom after the pandemic due to pent up demand. In reality many borrowed and pulled forward demand during the pandemic. Some talked about the “roaring twenties” but the set up is looking more like the thirties as stimulus dries up and interest rates go up. New traders to the market saw all pandemic gains in the stock market rolled back last month. Higher interest rates will reduce the demand for credit and many are already maxed out based on current debt levels. 2020 will be the best year of this decade.

Central bankers keep talking about “stronger consumer balanced sheets”. All the CERB and government support was needed to pay bills. None of that was saved. Higher income people who worked from home paid down debt and invested because there was nothing else to do. That money won’t be used to spend in the post-pandemic period.

Inflation will force wages up and that will cause more inflation. For now there is a labour shortage but many businesses will fail and the unemployment rate will go up once we hit recession in Q4 or 2023. Many won’t get a wage increase and will see stagflation.

Habits have changed. There is not a stampede to eat out at restaurants, return to office or go back to life the way it was in 2019. With return to office, it is less about health and more about if it even makes sense after two years of working from home. Nobody wants to return to commuting or their cubicles. Reopening and recovery as already happened. The restrictions or COVID is over unless a new variant shows up in the fall. A one month lockdown would have allowed a return to normal. After two years, this is the new normal.

Russia and China are being blamed for inflation. Both will hurt the global economy. China still manufactures everything and now their economy is slowing impacting anyone selling into that market. The outcome from the war will also not help the West. Worst case scenario is a global war. Best case scenario is that the Russians control part or all of Ukraine leaving sanctions in place for decades. Putin retreating and leaving Ukraine is the least likely outcome. Sanctions seem to be hurting Europe more than Russia.

I think we the US, Canada, Europe, Australia and New Zealand will all be like Japan in the end with negative real interest rates, unlimited quantitative easing and little to no growth due to demographics. I haven’t seen anyone put forward an idea that gives me confidence in the future of our economy. We are basically oil and housing. Both could crash if we have a severe global recession.

#86 TheDood on 05.11.22 at 7:43 pm

#76 Philco on 05.11.22 at 6:40 pm
#60 Bob Loblaw on 05.11.22 at 5:40 pm
Garth seems to think real estate can’t go down much in Toronto. I think he’s wrong.
——————————-
The garbage could take a good hit not 70 though…..I don’t know the market there but a 2x10s $34 (we live in a rain forest lol) and we are in desperate need of housing. Its shocking actually. EVERYwhere I go there are new houses EVEYWHERE.
So….Income falls behind everything. Means nothing……
___________________________

Actually, it means everything. If people can’t afford to buy, they borrow. Except when rates go up, they can’t borrow can they? Why? Because they don’t make enough income to qualify. Interest rates are going up to stay for quite some time so there’s going to be a whole lot less borrowing. And those already deep in the hole will have a life-changing decision to make when they go to renew.

The crows are home to roost……….

#87 Ed M on 05.11.22 at 7:44 pm

Gas at ~$2.20/L in Vancouver is unpleasant, but the real effect it’s had is it has crystalized for everyone that the party is over. What was once unthinkable for gas is now reality, and the government won’t/can’t save you from those costs. Likewise, the unthinkable for housing (i.e. that housing can go down, or that interest rates would never rise much) is also now reality. The naive are figuring out that the government won’t/can’t save you there either.

I feel the muted concern right now when I’m out and about, but if indeed the BOC raises again another 50 points in June (which many here are in denial about), the real panic will be visible.

#88 robert james on 05.11.22 at 7:47 pm

The stock market crashing,, housing bubble bursting,,, Russia invading Ukraine,, climate change,, the world is very bad shape,, BUT My God,, it gets worse !!!! Apparently China has a Hurricane gun .. Trump’s ‘Hurricane Gun’ Story Sets Off Twitter Tempest: ‘That Seems Sane’.,,, https://news.yahoo.com/trumps-hurricane-gun-story-sets-045211030.html .. Who knows,, maybe when the New York bankers start forest fires with their space laser the Chinese will be good enough to shoot a Hurricane over and put the fires out.. I am so glad I live in Canada !!! LOL

#89 When Will They Raise Rates? on 05.11.22 at 7:58 pm

DELETED

#90 Quintilian on 05.11.22 at 8:05 pm

#44 Philco on 05.11.22 at 4:31 pm
“Your a beauty dude.
Just Imagine if we had a fiscally responsible gov that didn’t promise endless pony’s? Get your A to work! There’s lots out there.”

The assumption on your part is that because I am a progressive, I must be a slacker.
You are wrong.

However,I do think that a half a trillion dollars was worth spending.
It prevented a lot of human misery that would have been disproportionally suffered by the most vulnerable ie single parents, low wage earners, elderly, and also small business etc etc.

It could be argued that there might have been some abuse, that is not the government’s fault.
Felons will do what they do.

But by and large most Canadians are decent, honest, generous and kind.
Unlike some of you conservatives who would have opted for a return of bread lines and Hoovervilles.

#91 crowdedelevatorfartz on 05.11.22 at 8:11 pm

Quite a “charming” protest against Jaggy Singh as he was leaving an Ontario NDP office.

https://www.burnabynow.com/local-news/video-protesters-harass-burnaby-south-mp-ndp-leader-jagmeet-singh-at-ontario-campaign-event-5358448

The videos are quite an eye opener.

If these are the Trucking idiots that are going to rally around PP….
He doesnt have a hope in hell with mainstream Canada.

#92 Be Best on 05.11.22 at 8:17 pm

As usual, spot on Garth! Please start a Podcast. You will have a big following!

#93 Philco on 05.11.22 at 8:24 pm

The feds are not solely responsible for house prices. Nor will anyone in office fix them. Voters demanding affordability are fools until we all change behavior’s and expectations. – Garth
—————-
Indeed… Int. rate never ending decline put the herd in overdrive.
Price upward trajectory got the herd more excited.
Many lost the few brain cells they had and hence the dog pile.
They can’t help themselves and I PERSONALLY think it funny as hell.
Then the Realtors get aboard the Champagne train to kick it up. Bubble TV goes full tilt.

I thought the bond market was going to blow up years ago. Got that wrong as Hell. They just kept monetizing debt. Print those little green suckers keep those rates in the basement.
I was cautious as all heck all along…my debt was in my company so tax deductible so I personally thought it was good to knock the mortgage off while int rates were low and times were great.

#94 Faron on 05.11.22 at 8:28 pm

#24 Caffeine Monkey on 05.11.22 at 3:33 pm

Then someone needs to come out with an ETF that *shorts* that ETF. That’s the one I’m buying.

I’ve been blathering about XHB in the US. Went -58% peak to trough in the ’08/’09 crisis. Already off 26% and seems to be running inverse to rates. I don’t think there’s a Canadian equivalent. If you own RE, seems like a short of this would be a good hedge. You also should not listen to me.

#95 Jay (Not that one) on 05.11.22 at 8:32 pm

I’m seriously thankful that I listened to good advice and refinanced for another 10 years last year, using another piece of good advice and breaking my previous 10-year mortgage 5 years in paying only a 3 months interest penalty (and reduced my total mortgage length by 10 years to mitigate the risk of higher rates down the road.

Now you can’t get a 3 year fixed mortgage for the rate I got my 10 year fixed for, and I can quietly pay back my loan with dollars that are significantly less valuable than the ones I borrowed.

I knew it was going to happen eventually which is why I took out the extra insurance of the 10-year in the first place, but with your help, the timing was perfect — dead-on. Once in a lifetime.

#96 Faron on 05.11.22 at 8:32 pm

#81 Faron on 05.11.22 at 8:28 pm

#24 Caffeine Monkey on 05.11.22 at 3:33 pm

My apologies, I was looking at the wrong ticker. Went -82% in the GFC. Is -33% from ATH now.

#97 DON on 05.11.22 at 8:43 pm

Philco

“Fuel prices dictate a lot. We are never going back to $1 liter maybe not $1.50.
$300 sq ft is min building cost that’s never going down unless we roll into a depression. $300 cheap these days..

The US blew up because the defaults back then. We are in pretty dam good financial shape. That was not true back then. If you could fog a mirror you could get 100% financing..
Canada wide Id guess maybe 15-20% but god knows for sure.
I got multiple props 14 incl my stratus and never sell just add if deals come by.
I’m building 3 building but not residential. Yuk. lol Milling my own trees to keep it sane. Sh!t my drawers on the truss quote and metal for 1 building $165,000. No way around that bill. Giddy up. :-)”

***************
Last time residential building declined on the Island building trades left to get jobs in Alberta. At the end of the day people need a pay cheque. I know of bunch of certified guys that will build to make a wage when times are tight. The central Island area benefited by a retirement boom that started in the mid 90’s. But the good paying jobs are sparse in the best of times. Local incomes cannot sustain tent or prices. A recession on the island means moving away for jobs when push comes to shove. Then there’s the fact that people have taken on more debt than could be imagined just 10 years ago. Then there’s inflation to tip the scales a push people off the edge. Momentum is lost. Lessons are learned.

Thumbs up to the milling…better quality. Are you in Browser?

#98 SW on 05.11.22 at 8:49 pm

#36 Søren Angst on 05.11.22 at 4:02 pm
Weather forecast for tomorrow in Eastern Ontario: Sunny and 31C.
We’ll have the windows open tonight…

#99 When Will They Raise Rates? on 05.11.22 at 8:55 pm

The feds are not solely responsible for house prices. Nor will anyone in office fix them. Voters demanding affordability are fools until we all change behaviours and expectations. – Garth

They could eliminate CMHC. Problem solved overnight.

#100 Crypto on 05.11.22 at 8:57 pm

Terra crypto dropped 99% overnight. So much for inflation hedges

#101 yvr_lurker on 05.11.22 at 9:00 pm

Voters demanding affordability are fools until we all change behaviours and expectations
——————–
Is it unreasonable for families with moderate incomes (100 K total) to be able to purchase a starter home in some smallish town without family help? Should they save for a downpayment for 20 years beforehand to accomplish this? Did people have to do something similar in previous generations? Prices escalated by 100% in 3 years in your chart in many towns. If this is the new reality, and if you are okay with the situation that the couple should somehow be blaming themselves for their predicament, then we are in a very sorry state in this country.

#102 Dr V on 05.11.22 at 9:11 pm

Bunnypatch?? None of these places are more expensive than the east coast of VI with the exceptions of Campbell River and Port Alberni (which is actually west coast VI)

http://www.vireb.com/index.php?page=20

Insanity everywhere.

#103 david on 05.11.22 at 9:43 pm

Ladders are used for climbing up AND down.

#104 cramar on 05.11.22 at 9:58 pm

What this commentary today is describing is …

The PERFECT STORM.

Garth covered RE issues (bubble bursting & increasing interest rates) that he has warned about for some time. Add to this massive storm front, the supply chain issues, galloping inflation, unstoppable fuel prices, looming food shortages and carnage caused by Putin’s insanity, mass starvation is some parts of the world, and you have all the ingredients for the “Perfect Storm.”

It’s currently a few hundred Km away, but causing horrific winds as it approaches. When it hits with full force, there will be massive destruction.

Board up the windows and batten down the hatches. The worst is yet to come!

#105 Dumb as a post on 05.11.22 at 9:59 pm

#25 Shawn on 05.11.22 at 3:35 pm

Dividend Increases Excite Investors

It is interesting that dividend increases excite investors so much. If you think of a corporation you own shares in as a sort of bank account that pays “interest” in the form of earnings that grow your balance, then a higher dividend is logically of no more benefit than if you remove money from any other bank account you own.

If you think highly of the management of a company you own and think they can invest your money profitably in growth why in the world would you want them to hand back some of your investment to you?

Especially weird was the old REIT model of paying out 100% of free cash flow and then issuing new shares to fund growth. Money out with one hand and back in with the other. Suck, blow. It only worked because investors are dumb as posts and the unit price got pumped up by paying the high distributions. RioCan for one is now going to pay out only 60% or so of free cash flow.

———-

So much misinformation… Where to start?

Why would someone want to have them hand money back to you? Because you have bills to pay and they like receiving payments when markets plummet. Hmmmm…. Besides, if you don’t wish to receive, DRIP it. Problem solved.

REITs pay money out because they have to, ostensibly 90%.They don’t have a choice. Otherwise, they won’t remain a REIT for long.

100% is not an old model. It might be the most tax advantaged solution. Some companies payout more than 100%. There is flexibility due to depreciation on the properties, Return of Capital, etc.

Funding growth with new shares is no big deal. Every acquisition should be accretive to the REIT or the deal should not be done.

Wow. My REITs have paid substantially more than indexes for the past decade. I guess i am dumb as a post.

#106 When Will They Raise Rates? on 05.11.22 at 10:04 pm

… So is everyone else I personally know who has ponied up the $15 to buy a membership. All first time members. Old lady at my wife’s company is volunteering for Skippy. She’s a former liberal.

Nobody is voting for Charest. Sorry to break it to ya

#107 Satori on 05.11.22 at 10:15 pm

#77 jess on 05.11.22 at 6:57 pm to
#6 Hans on 05.11.22 at 2:50 pm
how many renters do you think have 3000k for rent + utilities? Renters are negotiating down.
———————————–
Han is right! Jess obviously you haven’t been out there looking for a place to rent for a long while, good for you but… when there is a wait list, and 75 emails in the inbox for your rental unit = there is no negotiations.

#108 Shawn on 05.11.22 at 10:18 pm

Is CMHC responsible for high house prices?

#99 When Will They Raise Rates? on 05.11.22 at 8:55 pm
The feds are not solely responsible for house prices. Nor will anyone in office fix them. Voters demanding affordability are fools until we all change behaviors and expectations. – Garth

They could eliminate CMHC. Problem solved overnight.

************************************
CMHC existed in 1989 when I bought my first house. And for a long time before that. So they were protecting the banks and taking away risk away back then when houses were cheap.

CMHC lowered the down payment from a standard 20% to I believe 10% and there are ways to get it lower.

10% down payments came in what 20 years ago or more? before house prices really took off.

How can you blame CMHC for the high house prices when it was around taking away risks from the banks WAY before runaway house prices?

Mathematically the “culprit” was ultra low interest rates. It’s simple math. $2000 available for a mortgage payment simply supports one heck of a higher house price at 2% versus 10% interest.

I have a sister in Florida who is a real estate agent. She reports that buyers almost always want the most expensive house they can qualify for. It’s mostly about interest rates. Not CMHC or the U.S. equivalent.

Yes, you are probably right house prices would drop without CMHC, but if you are blaming the high prices on CMHC I disagree.

#109 John on 05.11.22 at 10:23 pm

There was good article in the Economist about how bad housing policy has lead some young people to lose faith in Capitalism as a system. We have too many young people voting Green and NDP because they think Capitalism has failed them.

In Canada we should stop our sole focus on ownership; we should protect renters more; we should build where homes where the jobs (our GDP benefits from this)

(We should also get a debt-adverse Conservative Government elected)

Love your blog. Please continue posting!

#110 Shawn on 05.11.22 at 10:23 pm

I should add that my first house was a rental property and the bank allowed us to borrow 15% (we had a co-signer) and we only put in 10% down payment. Correction the down payment then was officially 25%. But we only put down 10%. We had 75% mortgage, 15% loan and 10% actual down payment.

To this day CMHC insurance is required if you have less than 20% down.

I think what changed is CMHC later started officially allowing 5% down if you paid a higher CMHC fee. I never ever paid one. In 1990 you pretended to have 25% down but borrowed part of the down payment it seems.

#111 Philco on 05.11.22 at 10:48 pm

#97 DON on 05.11.22 at 8:43 pm
————————
Hey DON. I in Powell and Courtenay.
Debt is scary I don’t partake. Yes we are in a wacky world.
I believe things could be different then the past in a recessions in these high demand areas we could stay solid….
Demographics have changed the game. Many peeps come here and build for cash. They will be unaffected by downturns.
Small venues that have become go to retirement areas will be unaffected.
We have never had such a shortage of trades and the kids do not wanna work a real job. I think they could sail through the R word. Their short lived anyway. People that live on the margin will have trouble.

There’s many things at play I think and we don’t resemble anything of the past… I think the island needs to tame it down but it ain’t shrinking.
Here I talk to the deer in my tub the bears visit. But they piss me off eating my new fruit trees, but they were here first so I put up fences.
I’m grateful to live here and buy a lot of property early.

Anyway logged some awesome fir 20 years per inch. Unheard of for 2nd growth… 5 Logging truck loads. I’m tired of bucking and limbing. lol.
I got the buddy on the mill and he’s cutting prime beams for the lumber yard, and lumber for a resort going on Hardy Isl.
Also for a 200ft RV storage building and shop for me. Blades and gas and dude, so lumber will be dirt cheap.
I bought 2- 3000sq ft steel storage buildings also.
Even with cheap lumber erection time is so much cheaper I’m prolly 30% cheaper than wood. My mini storage…economy up or down we are packed always.

Cheers

#112 Dodgiest on 05.11.22 at 10:57 pm

@#90 Quintilian

However,I do think that a half a trillion dollars was worth spending.
It prevented a lot of human misery that would have been disproportionally suffered by the most vulnerable…
———————————————————————
The suffering will happen regardless. Runaway deficits and crony capitalism cannot be left unattended.
By all means I am not anti-capitalist, my parents dod very well running a small business for 20 yrs in the late 70’s to 90’s. I’m all for sound capitalism.

But simply look at the USA. They have let things deteriorate so badly that it will do irriversible damage to their society. The Fed is trying to unwind their trillions of fake money used to prop up the economy and monitize the debt they already owed to the tune of $25T. Let’s jsut assume they do their bond repurchasing to the tune of $45B a month, without any hickups whatsover to their economy, how long do you think they will have keep this up to buy back the 9000 Billions they created this past covid recession of 2020?

Don’t forget, they are the biggest economy in the world and Canada is what, 2% of the world GDP?
If we continue down this rabbit hole like the USA, we will have so much more pain to endure as a nation not for your grand or kids but in real-time. The labour disputes that are going to surface is going to add to the pain. The pay back problems are happening and The social issues will keep on piling up.

#113 PeterfromCalgary on 05.11.22 at 11:34 pm

As best I can tell the market fell again today because US inflation came in at 8.3% rather than the widely expected 8.1% Mr. Market does not like unhappy surprises. This is still below the 8.5% of last months inflation.

So it seems inflation is a little more sticky than anticipated. I am thinking the FED turning around a big ship like the US economy may be a little slow but it still is going to happen. Unfortunately, it may take longer than expected and a lot of nervous investors will click sell before that time.

Also US midterm elections our coming in seven months and a bunch of newly elected GOP Senators and members of Congress may be voting no on everything Biden wants to spend more on except maybe defense. That should also help to slow down inflation south of the border.

#114 Nick on 05.11.22 at 11:53 pm

‘Massive increase’ in deaths among young Albertans during pandemic, study finds.

https://twitter.com/nationalpost/status/1524185271457177600?s=20&t=uKOvkMkdl8WJVkqrN7sKQg

#115 Beth on 05.11.22 at 11:55 pm

#101 yvr_lurker on 05.11.22 at 9:00 pm
Voters demanding affordability are fools until we all change behaviours and expectations
——————–
Is it unreasonable for families with moderate incomes (100 K total) to be able to purchase a starter home in some smallish town without family help? Should they save for a downpayment for 20 years beforehand to accomplish this? Did people have to do something similar in previous generations? Prices escalated by 100% in 3 years in your chart in many towns. If this is the new reality, and if you are okay with the situation that the couple should somehow be blaming themselves for their predicament, then we are in a very sorry state in this country.
———————————————
I am single, never married and I make $52,000/gross per year…the most I have ever made in my life! Prior to that $30-40,000. AND I have ‘saved’ enough to buy a house outright!!

Yes YVRLURKER you can buy a house with a $100,000 a year, and if you are sharing expenses, even easier… what couple can’t with that income???! I mean $100,000 a year!! Thats double of what I make and I never shared expenses since college.

People in Canada, see it, want it, buy it and forget it… and they are off to the next thing. No one I know packs a lunch, they eat out, that is the Canadian way. Always getting the lastest gadgets, upgrading yearly, etc,etc,etc.

The lost piece in Canada is SAVING. No-one does it, no-one cares, and booo hooo now that no-one wants a house, eh? I can’t believe you had to ask if ‘past generations saved money’?

Prices are not the problem, sure housing has gone up but actually ‘saving’ wasn’t a priority until they watched HGTV in their 40s or someone accidentally got knocked up and by then, with calcified spending habits… it’s too late.

I don’t pity anyone who earns $100,000 a year and whines about housing being ‘expensive’. Tough sh#t.
And yes, they can blame themselves!! 100%

#116 Beth on 05.12.22 at 12:02 am

#111 Philco on 05.11.22 at 10:48 pm
#97 DON on 05.11.22 at 8:43 pm
My mini storage…economy up or down we are packed always.
————————
Thanks Philco, you just proved my point.

All the junk people buy they have to pay to ‘store’ the excess.

Gaud.

#117 Tom from Mississauga on 05.12.22 at 12:03 am

Great data points Garth. Statscan new 2021 census data mentioned Toronto pop growth was 1.2% while Sauga actually shrank, but Ontario grew 5.1%, what an exodus to Bunnypatch. My brother’s lake near Halliburton people built lavish palaces up there the last 5 years, propane top up of a 1500 litre popped over $3K, the cost of living has exploded in 6 months.

#118 Danny Boy on 05.12.22 at 12:12 am

When we see 7% mortgage rates by November-2022 then we will see the big slow melt of real estate reality. Remember, reality bites.

#119 DON on 05.12.22 at 12:31 am

#75 rknusa on 05.11.22 at 6:25 pm
the narrative on this blog is quite a bit different than what is being reported just in the last week or two

market is still an insane sellers market

https://globalnews.ca/news/8793552/halifax-real-estate-market-april-2022/

https://globalnews.ca/news/8784773/home-prices-london-canada-stay-high-interest-rates-rising/

And what are the ‘expert’ sources for those stories? Oh, look. Realtors. – Garth

********
Ah ha ha ha! Consider the source is lost on rknusa.

#120 Sail Away on 05.12.22 at 12:45 am

#113 PeterfromCalgary on 05.11.22 at 11:34 pm

So it seems inflation is a little more sticky than anticipated. I am thinking the FED turning around a big ship like the US economy may be a little slow but it still is going to happen. Unfortunately, it may take longer than expected and a lot of nervous investors will click sell before that time.

———

Perhaps. I’m very happy with the values out there right now. As always, some stayed high, like oil and fertilizer, while others, tech for example, has taken a beating. Railroads just keep throwing off cash.

What a time and place to be alive. Life would be 100% perfect if the daily rains stopped to let the morels pop.

#121 share on 05.12.22 at 1:27 am

2 days ago a fixer upper semi-detached in Burlington, ON sold firm for $750,000 no conditions 150% over asking MULTIPLE offers.

For those literally looking to buy a house things are more expensive not cheaper. Not yet a balanced market.

Reality in the market beats any narrative.

#122 Tony on 05.12.22 at 1:51 am

Re: #31 Shawn on 05.11.22 at 3:50 pm

The word you’re looking for is “stagflation”.

#123 Tony on 05.12.22 at 2:16 am

Re:#60 Bob Loblaw on 05.11.22 at 5:40 pm

In case you don’t know it a horse called BOB LOBLAW is running in the 4th race at Mohawk this Friday. He made almost a quarter of a million dollars last year.

#124 millmech on 05.12.22 at 2:31 am

#107 Satori
There could be the possibility of very high inflation requiring rates at the bank of 15% plus in the near future. Do the math as the monthly on 800k mortgage at 15% is 10k, those renters paying 3k would be laughing.
How long could one hold out to the bank before becoming insolvent, I am sure that everyone is making the 20% down extra every year along with doubling up on the monthly.
Some places are decreasing by 100k/mth as reported on this blog, so one could be underwater by almost 500k by the time they actually get possession.

#125 Squidward on 05.12.22 at 2:32 am

The crypto markets are crashing hope Canadian real estate does too

#126 ulsterman on 05.12.22 at 3:24 am

Definitely lots of excitement here predicting the end for the housing market. Sorry, watched this movie for the past 15 years. GFC, mini-crash of 2017-18, Covid, etc…all were the END, and yet….

I hope this is the beginning of a 30-50% crash but i honestly don’t believe it will happen. And even if it is a 50% crash, so what, a 1950’s bungalow in Burnaby goes from $2m to $1m. Oooooh!

#127 Idiocy on 05.12.22 at 4:41 am

Blackrock and others are borrowing at Fed Funds rate plus 0.25 %, not borrowing from banks at 5.33 % currently.

That means they are paying 1 to 1.5 % to mortgage their properties.

Ergo, they don’t care what the price is to buy as rents far exceed their low carrying costs.

For example the house they pay $ 400,000 for costs only $ 4,000 to $ 6,000 to finance anually or $ 320 to $ 500 / month.

House rents for $ 1,800 to 2,300 / month.

That is why they are buying entire subdivisions. The numbers work for them.

#128 ABC123 on 05.12.22 at 7:26 am

What you are trying to do lately here Garth, that is , take the focus off the decline in financial markets and shift the focus to Canadian real estate markets is of course an admiral effort. After all, a decline in housing values, given the level of exposure to the average Canadian is far more impactful financially than the average Canadians exposure to financial markets.

A view from the street however, which most posters here would agree. The conversations yesterday, today and over the weekend will not be the difficult to perceive change in the real estate market, which some will hardly notice or deny even exists ,but the bleating on BNN , CNBC et all about the brutality and rapidity of the decline in financial markets , day after day after day. The relentlessness cannot be denied.

This contrast of realities has a lot to do with the sheer dishonesty of the various real estate cabals and the almost to a fault honest purveyors of financial market news. I would add that it would be great if we could plant a green and red neon sign on every homeowners lawn and flash the value of their respective homes ,second by second ,day by day ,as well, just to see the effect on their respective human primitive lizard brains ,to see if fear is stoked ,but of course this will not happen. The inherent illiquidity of real estate a screaming advantage to financial ones , IMO. A point you have brought previous as an advantage I see differently

I don’t know what the solution to this problem is but I fear that your efforts here are fruitless.

#129 crowdedelevatorfartz on 05.12.22 at 8:31 am

@#118 Oh Danny Boy
“When we see 7% mortgage rates by November-2022 then we will see the big slow melt of real estate reality. Remember, reality bites.”

++++

The market has peaked.
The horrified realization that “price DONT always go up” will hit sometime this Summer and then a wave of listings will swamp the market.
Should be in full panic mode by Oct.

#130 Sail Away on 05.12.22 at 8:32 am

Consider intermittent fasting for health and happiness.

In the hunting and trialing dog world, it’s fairly well-accepted that no food in mornings during the season improves performance. It also improves smarts, apparently:

https://www.wsj.com/video/series/daniela-hernandez/intermittent-fasting-may-have-cognitive-benefits-new-research-shows/E270EA28-94D8-409B-8F4D-E4D81F3E9EFD?mod=djem10point

#131 Steven Rowlandson on 05.12.22 at 8:39 am

“The quality of life in Bunnypatch, ripping apart the relationship between local incomes and local house prices.”

This happened back in the mid 1960s. Perhaps you recently noticed the problem? The Monopoly game became popular and people forgot the consequenses of the real estate bubble of the 1920s and the great depression. They got the funny idea that playing Monopoly in the real world is fun, harmless and profitable. People never really learn from history.

Including you. The urban:rural price ratio in 1965 was 7:1. Now it’s 2:1. – Garth

#132 crowdedelevatorfartz on 05.12.22 at 8:51 am

Ayone watch the “Charest vs Poillivre” Conservative leadership debate last night?
Charest looks tired and worn out.
Yesterdays man.
Charest got a few digs in …but PP hammered Charest with his old voting record and former comments.
Charest has too much baggage and seeing the crowd burst out in spontaneous cheers for Pierre… was an eye opener.

Unstoppable and as the economy ( Real estate) spins down the toilet….there will be a lot of seething, indebted,( bankrupt?) Canadians chomping at the bit for a vote in another Federal election.

2024? Pfft. A lifetime in politics.

Does Canada have enough spoiled fruits and vegetables to last 24 more months?
If the angry, indebted mobs dont start throwing rotten eggs and tomatoes at every Trudeau and Singh public appearance. I’ll be amazed.

Pierre Populist or not.
There’s a lot of angry angry voters out there.

#133 Robert S. on 05.12.22 at 8:58 am

Pierre Poilievre, 2022:
“If you think I’m going to be silent about that to protect the ego of bankers … then you’re in for a surprise.”
Jean Chretien, 1993:
“I’m not here to represent financial institutions … I’m here to represent ordinary Canadians.”

Can we get back a real Liberal. Trudeau is no Liberal. And Pierre is actually a forgone Liberal, but the goal posts are so far pushed, that Liberals can’t see it. Vote PP and you’ll actually get a centrist.

#134 Ponzius Pilatus on 05.12.22 at 9:04 am

Advice from my first trip after the Pandemic.
Airbnb are like a box of chocolates.
You never know what you’ll get.
Stick with hotels.
Or sleep in your Tesla.

#135 Ponzius Pilatus on 05.12.22 at 9:22 am

Read somewhere that Americans don’t like EVs much.
But the new F-150 Lightning could get them hooked.

#136 schoolie on 05.12.22 at 9:24 am

What’s that I hear?….the grumblings of the overextended and indebted who lived high on the horse for all these years enjoying that social media look rich lifestyle – all “funded” by cheap credit, HELOCs and other “methods” that we don’t talk about in public or on”the gram”….that’s right folks, something is rotten in the state of Denmark. Don’t come looking to me for help – I never enjoyed looking rich and happy on social media – nope, just quietly living debt free and slowly building my savings collecting modest returns which now are finally starting to become more attractive – yep also have two DB pensions to boot. Yeah, don’t come suddenly crying and hand wringing about what I have and what you suddenly just realized you don’t and never did. You see, it’s just that the tide went out and you’ve been swimming naked and now everyone will see. Maybe your social media accounts will go dark for a little while. I don’t know. Can’t help you anyway – don’t much want to either. Just call me Mr. homemade Tuna sandwich you sonuvabit*h!!!

#137 Ponzius Pilatus on 05.12.22 at 9:28 am

Driving on the 401 from Montreal to Toronto, it’s almost more big rigs than passenger cars.
And I’m thinking:
What supply shortage?

#138 crowdedelevatorfartz on 05.12.22 at 9:40 am

@#135 Ponzie’s Perpetual Promises
“But the new F-150 Lightning could get them hooked.”
+++
Have they started delivering those yet?

Next month?

Lets see what the bugs are in the first generation of EV trucks before plunking down 50, 60, 70 k on an electric work truck.
Someone else can be a guinea pig.
I’ll wait a few years.

#139 AJ on 05.12.22 at 9:44 am

DELETED

#140 Sail Away on 05.12.22 at 9:59 am

#134 Ponzius Pilatus on 05.12.22 at 9:04 am

Advice from my first trip after the Pandemic.
Airbnb are like a box of chocolates.
You never know what you’ll get.
Stick with hotels.
Or sleep in your Tesla.

———

Told ya. Paying $250 for 8 hours of sleeping is never good value.

#141 DON on 05.12.22 at 10:04 am

The CRA is sending letters out to CERB recipients that really did not qualify. Amazing how the headline was burried. Letters in the mail…this can’t be good. The good knews they are alloeing flexible payments. When things compound they really suck.

#142 Quintilian on 05.12.22 at 10:35 am

Although a Liberal,(least of the evils), I still think that an essential component of good government is a good opposition.

With sadness I endured the Cons leadership debate last night.

Even the diehard curmudgeons cannot be happy if they actually heard what the candidates were saying.

#143 crowdedelevatorfartz on 05.12.22 at 11:16 am

@#137 Ponzie’s precarious parking
“Driving on the 401 from Montreal to Toronto, it’s almost more big rigs than passenger cars.”

+++
When was the last time you drove on the #1 HWY in the Lower Brain Land during rush hour?
Or Hwy 99 south through the Deas tunnel.
Solid lanes full of Rigs in the slow lane.

Total grid lock twice a day.

They should be regulated to 11pm to 7 am night driving only to clear the roads.

#144 IHCTD9 on 05.12.22 at 11:16 am

#91 crowdedelevatorfartz on 05.11.22 at 8:11 pm
Quite a “charming” protest against Jaggy Singh as he was leaving an Ontario NDP office.

https://www.burnabynow.com/local-news/video-protesters-harass-burnaby-south-mp-ndp-leader-jagmeet-singh-at-ontario-campaign-event-5358448

The videos are quite an eye opener.
_________

I did a bit of bar hopping in Peterborough as a teen back in the 80’s. Going there meant you had to be ready to fight. Lots of Goons back then, plenty now too I suspect. Rough and tumble town slowly (but not completely) starting to soften up.

Speaking of blue collar towns softening up, the sleepy little town I work in is soon to welcome it’s 11th pizza joint. We’re up to 14 Dentist offices, 8 Pharmacies, 20 fast food franchises, 10 car dealerships, and 4 weed shops. For 20K people.

It was a town of Paper Mills, Big manufacturing, bars, and peeler joints back in the 70’s and 80’s.

I can’t figure it out, but obviously there must be money aplenty to spend…

#145 crowdedelevatorfartz on 05.12.22 at 11:22 am

@#142 Quinty’s Questionable Queries
“Even the diehard curmudgeons cannot be happy if they actually heard what the candidates were saying.”

+++
Well.
If Pierre’s nonstop hammering of Charest was any indication.

Watching him eviscerate a wheezing, stuttering, breathlessly exaggerating Trudeau on stage while I eat buttered popcorn and drink cold beer……should be amusing.
It’s a shame we’ll have to wait 2 years to see it.
The Recession should have everyone in a great frame of mind by then.
:)

#146 Ponzius Pilatus on 05.12.22 at 11:29 am

#142 Quintilian on 05.12.22 at 10:35 am
Although a Liberal,(least of the evils), I still think that an essential component of good government is a good opposition.

With sadness I endured the Cons leadership debate last night.

Even the diehard curmudgeons cannot be happy if they actually heard what the candidates were saying.
———————
I think leadership debates are outdated, to scripted.
No one wants to make a mistake.
Instead all candidates should submit a ten page essay titled “I you vote for me I would do ……..”
And then date and sign it.
And post it on the candidates website.
What is written down and signed is more powerful than what has been said.

#147 IHCTD9 on 05.12.22 at 11:33 am

#137 Ponzius Pilatus on 05.12.22 at 9:28 am
Driving on the 401 from Montreal to Toronto, it’s almost more big rigs than passenger cars.
And I’m thinking:
What supply shortage?
_____

All those trucks are a recent phenomena. I’ll bet you spent an inordinate amount of time on that run trapped behind a pair of trucks where one was trying to pass the other and taking 25 km to get by. At this point, you can’t take a 5 minute trip on the 401 without getting stuck behind trucks trying to pass each other with their .001 kph speed differential.

Believe it or not, in the 80’s I could sail straight into the heart of the GTA without even so much as a slowdown on the 401. It was a fast and smooth running highway. Nowadays (pre-pandemic), it’s gridlock starting at Bowmanville. The exodus out of the GTA during the summer is so bad now, that we started camping in NYS to escape the all the people and cars.

I really need to move another couple hours North East.

#148 Faron on 05.12.22 at 11:49 am

#146 Ponzius Pilatus on 05.12.22 at 11:29 am

What is written down and signed is more powerful than what has been said

That’s why god invented the 5th estate. Professional journalists work tirelessly to do this. Anyone who hacks at the “MSM” probably doesn’t understand how hard working reputable journalists (not opinion writers, they are essayists) are (NP, G+M, CBC, NYT, WSJ, WP, Reuters, AP etc.) And they don’t get paid nearly enough.

Fox News as well as the Sinclair conglomerate introduced the idea of commentary as journalism and thusly eroded the bedrock faith in that trade. The result is a steady continuation of that erosion and growing polarization between agreed upon versions of “facts”. This will not end well.

#149 Faron on 05.12.22 at 11:53 am

#142 Quintilian on 05.12.22 at 10:35 am

an essential component of good government is a good opposition

Agreed, especially in Canada where the ruling party has carte blanche. Sometimes for a decade.

#150 jess on 05.12.22 at 11:58 am

If these are the Trucking idiots that are going to rally around PP….
He doesnt have a hope in hell with mainstream Canada.
==========
yeah, and what about these types?

“Canada Growth Council” ? cult?

Members of a Controversial and Secretive Religious Sect Funded Third-Party Group Behind Anti-Trudeau Ads

Elections Canada records suggest over a dozen individuals donated nearly $40,000 to third party group over a time span of 48 hours
by Emily Leedham, Prairies Reporter
May 11, 2022
https://pressprogress.ca/members-of-a-controversial-and-secretive-religious-sect-funded-third-party-group-behind-anti-trudeau-ads/

https://www.ictsd.org/do-churches-in-canada-pay-property-taxes/

#151 crowdedelevatorfartz on 05.12.22 at 12:06 pm

@#147 IHCTD9
“…..without getting stuck behind trucks trying to pass each other with their .001 kph speed differential.”

+++
Yep.
The “lane blocking” rigs or the occasional Sunday driving dolts in their cars that pull into the “PASSING lane” blocking traffic and then sit, mile after mile as more and more people stuck behind them go berserk….

Completely oblivious to the rush hour commuting traffic clogging up behind them.
In BC they passed a “traffic obstruction” Law for these road hogging brainiacs …. but it’s rarely, if ever, enforced.

https://www2.gov.bc.ca/gov/content/transportation/driving-and-cycling/road-safety-rules-and-consequences/keep-right

#152 Shawn on 05.12.22 at 12:19 pm

#122 Tony on 05.12.22 at 1:51 am
Re: #31 Shawn on 05.11.22 at 3:50 pm

The word you’re looking for is “stagflation”.

********************************
Well, I don’t know about calling the pending recession Stagflation.

I was a teenager and well aware of what Stagflation was in the 1970’s. It was double digit inflation along with double digit unemployment nationally. Unemployment in the Maritimes was like me, in the teens for years.

We are miles and miles from that today. Possibly due to demographics. FAR more retired people out of the workplace these days. In the 1970’s the boomers were coming into the job market and there were not enough jobs to go around. Yes, some got great pension jobs. Others struggled for years. People today think 6% unemployment is high. Due to growing up in the 1970’s 6% sounds very low to me. We were taught that around 4% was full employment but I never witnesses that nationally until 2019 if ever.

#153 Sail Away on 05.12.22 at 12:28 pm

Haha, Finland and Sweden will probably join NATO.

This’ll give Putin an aneurysm. Play stupid games, win stupid prizes.

#154 Barb on 05.12.22 at 12:47 pm

#147 IHCTD9
“At this point, you can’t take a 5 minute trip on the 401 without getting stuck behind trucks trying to pass each other with their .001 kph speed differential. ”
———————————
On a years ago trip to Germany, noticed that there are NEVER trucks in the left lane. Never ever. Trucks in the right lane can be miles long, bumper to bumper, and NOT ONE ventures into the passing lane. Good law.

#155 Shawn on 05.12.22 at 12:50 pm

Out of control Inflation

The wholesale producer price index in the U.S. was reported to today as 11% inflation over the past year and 0.5% in April alone.

11% inflation is EPIC. This has got to lead to a slowdown in the volume of purchases. Can people with 3% average wage gains just keep drawing down savings or adding to the credit card? I don’t think so.

I suppose the good news is that 0.5% for April indicates a slowdown in inflation.

#156 Faron on 05.12.22 at 12:57 pm

#151 crowdedelevatorfartz on 05.12.22 at 12:06 pm
@#147 IHCTD9

…Sunday driving dolts in their cars that pull into the “PASSING lane” blocking traffic and then sit, mile after mile as more and more people stuck behind them go berserk….

Probably from Oregon. Slowest drivers in North America bar none. A lot of people my age and older grew up with a 90kph equiv speed limit on freeways. 80 on highways etc.

#157 Mainstream CANADA is on 05.12.22 at 1:05 pm

DELETED

#158 Philco on 05.12.22 at 1:14 pm

#116 Beth on 05.12.22 at 12:02 am
#111 Philco on 05.11.22 at 10:48 pm
#97 DON on 05.11.22 at 8:43 pm
My mini storage…economy up or down we are packed always.
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Thanks Philco, you just proved my point.

All the junk people buy they have to pay to ‘store’ the excess.

Gaud.
====================
Indeed its a North American disease. BUT today VS 30 years ago people are far more mobilized for various reasons. Jobs aren’t cradle to grave, aging population retiring. People use to stay in their houses longer now they upgrade more or flip..The list goes on.
USA has 8sq ft per capita. CAN has 3sq. We are under invested in the area. Wait lists abound and we are in gods country.

#159 T Rex and the dinosaur clique on 05.12.22 at 1:18 pm

Interesting meeting with the thought police today.

Wanted me to sign a statement saying I agree with some “items of conscience”. I refused. They asked why.

I said that I don’t agree, however my thoughts on the issue are none of their business.

Well, that triggered quite the response. Apparently I am now suspected of “not having mainstream views” on a number of topics (I don’t, I guess, have the correct views as set out by whomever is in charge of the cancel culture movement, but who says those views are “mainstream”? Maybe everyone is just too afraid to say they disagree with them?).

At any rate, I am being asked to start counseling to “explore how I feel”.

I told them talk to my union rep and my lawyer (don’t have one yet, but might need one soon).

This is 2022.

I remember back when I was in high school, one of my favorite teachers remarked on a statement I had made in class “I don’t agree with what you said, but I would defend your right to say it”.

That was how it was. You could disagree, but a person could say what they felt and that was how discussion happened.

I expect if that teacher made the same statement today with regard to a non-mainstream statement made by a student, that he would be cancel cultured out of the education field, have his teaching license revoked, and perhaps be charged with “inciting hate” or some such thing.

So now I know, the thought police really do exist. I am being attacked for what I “might be thinking”. I have refused to tell them, and so their imagination is running wild I guess.

What a world we live in today.

#160 Ponzius Pilatus on 05.12.22 at 1:23 pm

#153 Sail Away on 05.12.22 at 12:28 pm
Haha, Finland and Sweden will probably join NATO.

This’ll give Putin an aneurysm. Play stupid games, win stupid prizes.
———————-
Will only escalate things.
Russia will not tolerate NATO on her doorsteps.
Now, Kosovo wants to join the EU.
Russian ally Serbia not happy.
Another Balkan war?
In the meantime, with the West focussed on Russia, the Taliban are getting nasty again.
Gotta look at the big picture, always.
It’s a big chess game, that only true students of history will understand.

#161 crowdedelevatorfartz on 05.12.22 at 1:55 pm

@#156 Faron.
“Probably from Oregon. Slowest drivers in North America bar none. ”
+++
Have you ever driven in PEI?
Worst drivers in North America.
120kph in a 90kph zone until they arrive on your bumper….where they stay …..for miles…..

#162 crowdedelevatorfartz on 05.12.22 at 2:20 pm

@#153 Sail Away
“This’ll give Putin an aneurysm. Play stupid games, win stupid prizes.”
+++
Putin.
A middle level KGB bureaucrat that was barely noticed in the sea of grey bureaucrats that surrounded him.
Slowly weaseled his way into the top spot by back room deals and conniving.
He fooled everyone into thinking he was a progressive leader.
20 years later he believes his own propaganda about a Russia long past and his own “brilliance” is reinforced by multiple levels of bureaucratic lickspittles that will never offer an opposing point of view.
There were no good, long term, scenarios for him or Russia if he invaded Ukraine.
He’s created the mess and the Gilded cage he’s in.
How long before Russian generals or the people around him have had enough….3 more months? 6?

#163 B on 05.12.22 at 5:50 pm

I rent a townhouse in South Surrey for $2500/month, the unit next door (exact same unit) sold for $950k in Feb… There had only been a couple units that went for sale over the last 8 months. This month 5 units are for sale now. No viewings at the last open house. People are chasing the Feb peak now but missed the boat. Time to start lowering prices.