Punked

At least it’s spring.

So, Bitcoin has shed 50% of its value in a few weeks as the US dollar surges. A NFT (Cryptopunk #273) which sold for $1 million US six months ago just traded for $139,530. That’s a loss of 80%. Some of this stuff is on its way to zero.  Would you pay seven figures for this? Me, neither.

Shopify, Canada’s fav techy stock, has shed a quarter of its value since last Thursday. It joins Amazon, Peloton and Netflix as casualties of the RTO evolution. Apparently millions of people thought they could stay in their jammies forever and make a decent living with upward mobility. The stay-at-home companies are bleeding out on the market. And don’t even ask about the ridiculous Bored Ape Yacht Club.

The Russian war is getting worse, not better. The global energy market’s in chaos, so oil is still over a hundred bucks, even with swaths of China shut down. High gas prices are going higher, and inflation is augmenting. US wages are up close to 6% in five months as the jobless rate plunges to 3%, which is the definition of full employment. Anybody who wants to work, can.

CBs are behind the curve and struggling to catch up without turning the lights off. Interest rates have only started to move, so Mr. Market figures a soft landing is remote and the sell-off needs to happen now. US markets have lost 15% (S&P) and 25% (Nasdaq) and 2022 has brought the worst start to a year since Hitler was marching into Poland. Now Putin stormtroops into Ukraine. Bond yields have gone nuts. The Yankee currency is viewed as safe haven. Gold is being whacked, despite its rep as an inflation hedge. Turns out, it’s just rocks.

Mortgages are topping 4.5% now and will be 5% soon. A few weeks ago in the GTA the sales-to-list ratio for resale homes was 1:1. Now I hear it’s 1:7. Mortgage application volumes are down more than 40%. Close to four in ten homeowners with mortgages will be facing renewal in the months to come at rates which will double. Prices are falling. Showings have dried. Offer nights are crickets.

In short, it may seem like there’s no place to hide. Even going to cash means losses when our currency is devaluing by 7% a year and ‘safe’ investments like GICs don’t pay even half that amount.

Where to hang out?

Here are a few positive suggestions.

First, do not abandon maple. Despite a weak dollar and the wokesters running the place, plus the Shopify plop, our market has done much better. The TSX is off its record peak by ‘only’ 8%. Notsobad. High energy prices have much to do with this, even as today’s events prove how moronic our government has been to punish the O&G industry. In a world that’s resource-hungry with global supply chain issues, Canada stands out as a stable, promising beacon.

Remember what we told you about never exiting a core asset class in your portfolio? This is why.

Second, you’ll also recall the recommendation here to keep a quarter of your portfolio is US$-denominated assets. The American dollar is the go-to reserve currency of the world. These days it’s swelling in value as inflation promises more rate hikes, attracting capital with pumped-up risk-free US bond yields. Besides, look at the issues being faced by Russia, China, Europe and EM countries. Food insecurity. Energy woes. And now Beijing sees a “grave situation” with labour, says its premier. Never bet against America. Own it.

Next, if it’s harder to make investment returns in a world like this, at least cut your overhead. Specifically, your tax overhead. If you invested in crazy stuff like Cryptopunk #273 or speculative tech equities, bail and use the losses to reduce capital gains – past or future. Or you could employ some battered assets as a contribution in kind to an RRSP, since no tax event would be triggered, yet you’d be able to claim it against taxable income for 2022.

Obviously this is a good year to top up the TFSA or the retirement plan, as well as your kid’s RESP with growth assets that are on sale. Corrections are scary but healthy. They blow off excess and establish more realistic valuations, setting the stage for recovery and growth.  And look at recent corporate profits. Sweet. If you’ve been sitting on cash waiting for blood in the gutters to invest, well, here we are.

Finally, days like these toy with emotions. Doug, Ryan, Sinan and I have all written about this recently. Humans are herd animals, loving to invest when everything’s being pushed up and retreating fast when buyers vanish and prices fall. Intellectually, we know better. Emotionally, we’re crippled. Fear not only triggers selling, but it prevents reinvestment. There is no point avoiding losses only to miss gains. And yet millions do exactly that – which is why folks who invest, stay invested, eschew market timing and spend more time dog-walking than day-trading, do better. Always.

Of course, if you bought a NFT, you deserve whatever punishment God decides she should mete out. But if this is your B&D retirement fund, tax-sheltered assets or your kid’s ETF college money, just chill. You did the right thing.

About the picture: “This is Howie,” writes Garrett, in Halifax. “He’s a mini-wiener dog but I think the correct term is long haired dachshund. He’s a Covid pup and sometimes struggles in social situations – amen Howie. He’s a good boy and will play fetch until the sun goes down. He could care less about food or the current state of the market.”

136 comments ↓

#1 dave on 05.09.22 at 2:01 pm

For those who want to buy a house, when is a good time? Timing the market is never a good idea.

Prices are dropping, how much of correction might be coming in 2022?

Buy when you need a house and can afford one without gutting your personal finances or imperiling your family. The advice never changes. – Garth

#2 My wife forced me on 05.09.22 at 2:08 pm

I avoided it for years. But recently she forced me to buy gold. They are lovely little bars.

When the lights go off soon. We will for sure have something to trade. Got kale, fish and firewood too.

Nobody trades gold for goods, or ever will again. You need cash. – Garth

#3 crowdedelevatorfartz on 05.09.22 at 2:11 pm

Does that Killer dog have a fricken lazer on its neck?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Bh7bYNAHXxw

#4 Bill B. on 05.09.22 at 2:12 pm

Sell everything – Buy Tesla Stock! Don’t know why Garth hasn’t realized this yet – it’s the only company on earth being run by an alien!

#5 Faron on 05.09.22 at 2:13 pm

For the (at least) two blog dogs who think the Twitter “arbitrage” is free money.

https://hindenburgresearch.com/twitter/

There is risk. That is why the share price gap exists.

#6 Stealth on 05.09.22 at 2:20 pm

Thank you for the excellent post.
2 points.

1. I had a first hand experience using 50 trillion notes, which got reset to 1 new note then again to trillions etc (yes hyperinflation). Nobody cared about gold, just US$ and back then deutche mark, and few Swiss franks here and there. Meaning reserve currency just like Garth said. Yes fiat, paper you can call it whatever you u want it doesn’t matter….
Thankfully booze and cigarettes were cheap (probably by design) and another thing which I can’t mention.
And no I am not 1000 years old and it was not ww2 actually fairly recent.

2. Thank you for the blood in the street indicator much appreciated.

Gold, hahah sorry couldn’t contain myself.
Have a great day.

#7 Swanson on 05.09.22 at 2:24 pm

“There is no point avoiding losses only to miss gains.” Love this. Thanks Garth.

#8 Prince Polo on 05.09.22 at 2:27 pm

I thought contributions-in-kind only automatically trigger capital gains (if applicable), but not capital losses (if applicable). May you please clarify the “claim against taxable income” section? Thank you sire!

Yup, gains are triggered. Losses are lost. But if you want to hang on to an asset that is flat or slightly negative, and recoup some of the loss, then make a contribution in kind and deduct it from taxable income as you would any RRSP deposit. – Garth

#9 Faron on 05.09.22 at 2:31 pm

#142 Sail Away on 05.09.22 at 1:55 pm

meanspirited for no reason.

Incorrect dear heart.

There are very good lessons for this blog’s audience that may be gained by looking at your single-stock recommendations (you previously claimed you don’t recommend, but that ship has sailed now hasn’t it?). There are even better lessons in your choices’ recent dismal performance.

This is a blog aimed at informing retirement savers about ways to grow their investments by careful purchase of diverse assets primarily via ETFs. While I don’t track your portfolio (how could I when I don’t know the weights or extent of it?). I do track some of the single-stock blunders. AFAICT you are deeply underperforming even NASDAQ while continuing to pump your garbage here or at least pump your ego as a winning stock picker.

Your material is classic @BagholderQuotes stuff — non-professional stock gamblers who are surprised when they get rugged.

It may be/is meanspirited to you, but the net benefit to anyone who takes a skeptical view of your SAGIs far outweighs any damage to your poor ego. Sometimes you have to yank the leash of a dog about to rip through someone’s picnic.

#10 Søren Angst on 05.09.22 at 2:31 pm

Ya, ya.

Just now looking at the Day Chart’s in Yahoo!Finance for my Threadbare Portfolio stocks reminds me of the

Mariana Trench

This too will come to pass.

As long as there are companies with earnings and there is a Mr. Market I will stay vested.

Besides, can’t wait to collect a near 40% annual dividend cash handout this month.

Glass, half full.

PS:

First, do not abandon maple. – Garth

Zen of paragraph:

yeah oil

#11 Amok on 05.09.22 at 2:33 pm

Did you see Pollievre’s performance at the recent debate?
Does anyone still believe that Canadians have an appetite for a mean-spirited bulldog populist as PM?
Never.

If Conservatives choose him to lead the party it will be another 10 years of Liberals in power.

You’ve been warned.

#12 Dogman01 on 05.09.22 at 2:37 pm

Another great communication by Pierre Poilievre.

Gas Prices are Rising. This is How We Are Going to Lower Them.

How can anyone actually playing for “Team Canada” support the destruction of the ethical Canadian Energy Sector and the use of energy from Russia and Saudi Arabia in Canada?

How can anyone not see the ongoing constructive destruction of “the middle class and those working hard to join it™” by our current elite globalist orientated establishment.

#13 IHCTD9 on 05.09.22 at 2:41 pm

Hey look a yonder comin’, coming down that railroad track. Heeey lookie yonder comin’, comin’ down that railroad track, it’s the Oran.. ZZRRCCHH!!

“Aaall aboooard!! Ha ha ha ha ha ha ha!!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hQ_Z-10dXSE

#14 T Rex and the dinosaur clique on 05.09.22 at 2:41 pm

RE: It’s interesting how PP is energizing the whackos. – Garth

///////////////////////////////////////////

Like Trudeau doesn’t energize the same type of people on the other side of the fence.

Line up the enviro – whackos and their “zero oil and gas” policies on one side, and on the other, we have PP and the “everything is a conspiracy by the billionaire clique that runs the WEF” on the other side.

The missing middle. Where is the missing middle?

#15 rampant inflation on 05.09.22 at 2:43 pm

Treasury’s Yellen Says U.S. Financial System Operating in ‘Orderly Manner’

By Reuters
May 9, 2022, at 12:54 p.m.

https://money.usnews.com/investing/news/articles/2022-05-09/yellen-says-u-s-financial-system-operating-in-orderly-manner

meaning… “the system is under great stress and duress and about to break”

watch out below

#16 None on 05.09.22 at 2:49 pm

Hey Blog dogs.

I have until tomorrow to take advantage of the 35K lOC at 1% for 6 months.

Seems like I may be missing an opportunity to actually make some money on leverage for a change…

What do you people think?

#17 Sail Away on 05.09.22 at 2:53 pm

#146 Dr V on 05.09.22 at 2:09 pm
121 Sailo

“Oh my, the markets. Red across the board. Sometimes
you’re the batter, sometimes you’re the ball.”

——–

Indeed. did some quick estimates on the weekend of gains from markets pre-covid high to current levels.
Got the following:

TSX +16%
SP500 +22%
NASDAQ +25%
R2000 +8%
N225 +12%

None sound unreasonable. Can we even say we are about where we would be historically speaking in a
moderate economy? But what lies ahead?

Made small purchase yesterday for 6% divvy.

——–

Yep, buy the way down and expect it’ll never be the exact bottom, but closer than clamming up.

I’m continuing the index buying today as all sectors seem to be hit pretty equally…

Penny Henny, it seems like you did actually go to cash at the exact right time. Buying back in soon?

#18 I'mshort_corpdebt on 05.09.22 at 2:55 pm

Wow, 26% down YTD for Nsdq is quite the feat. This month’s dictum ‘Sell in May and go away’ does prove it’s weight in black gold.

The index gained 22% last year. Keep things in context. – Garth

#19 Dogman01 on 05.09.22 at 2:55 pm

#11 Amok on 05.09.22 at 2:33 pm

Does anyone still believe that Canadians have an appetite for a mean-spirited bulldog populist as PM?

———————————-
I think the answer to that is “maybe”, if things go badly over the next two years economically, and I think they will go very badly. Then Canadians a may get to a point where they want action instead of manners.

Like when you hire a Lawyer, you want a shark even if you find the personality distasteful.

Charet’s ties to Huawei disqualify him for any leadership role IMO.

So, while I agree PP prosecutor style has an unappealing edge to it that many find distasteful, I think he will cahnge tactics and by 2025 Canadians will be so far up “Schitts Creek’ financially they will be seeking a decisive change of course.

The Huawei charge is a Pierre smear (he’s good at them). Charest worked for law firm McCarthy Tetrault and the Chinese company was a client on regulatory matters. At least Charest was in the private sector, while PP has been on the public teat his entire working life. = Garth

#20 Sean on 05.09.22 at 2:57 pm

Gold has been doing well this year. Only 4.66% down in last 30d and 1.34% up YoY. When bonds join stocks in nosediving, money won’t flow into NFTs or Bitcoin…. It will flow into stable assets.

My Nasdaq stocks haven’t done quite as well, but today I liquidated everything. I hate the thought of paying all those taxes but I think many stocks will go down another 50% from here.

No interest. No dividends. Just rocks. – Garth

#21 Faron on 05.09.22 at 3:00 pm

#16 None on 05.09.22 at 2:49 pm

I have until tomorrow to take advantage of the 35K lOC at 1% for 6 months.

Sounds sketchball. What happens after 6 mo.? 10%? 20%? Is this a credit card promo cheque?

#22 Planetgoofy on 05.09.22 at 3:02 pm

#145 bdwy on 05.09.22 at 2:04 pm
I think people will see how ignorant the imediate push to lose fossil fuels is.
I ya think lifes expensive now just watch.

———————-

oil finally takes a hit today after a week of ath’s while the blood flowed everywhere else.

it will come right back. unless the world chooses to starve and freeze rather quickly.

cbc radio has no ads and the news (so i end up leaving it on), wrapped around the most rabid lefty insanity you can imagine. supporting choking off the energy industry was the highest virtue one could signal.

bingo- buy signal. zeo 32 at the time. 5% sale today at 63 and change.

choke off the supply of the most essential good for most of humanity? supply/demand imbalance. putin too.

imbalance will take 1-2 years to fix.
=============
Its a head shaker Bro!

Filled up my 580Case with diesel burns maybe 4lt hr can do an incredible amount of work on that burn.
Cousins Deere 350 hoe burns 45lt hr can do 10 times the 580 easy. Load a dumper in 3 minutes. Excavated a 6000sq ft foundation mega tons of material. His other machines are up building forestry rd in Jervis inlet.
2x10s are $3.60 a ft and we live in a forest Hug a barrel oil you cant build a house without it. So many clueless. Hug a barrel oil you can’t build a house without it Mr. Toodough.

#23 John Tory - another senile leech on 05.09.22 at 3:02 pm

It’s almost like the election is coming up and he wants Torontonians to forget he made them the most locked-down city in North America.

“After extensive consultation…I have determined we no longer need to maintain in place the emergency declaration I signed in March of 2020.”
And with that, Toronto’s 777 day state of emergency has ended.

#24 Steven on 05.09.22 at 3:05 pm

Nobody trades gold for goods, or ever will again. You need cash. – Garth

—————————————————————–

Funny, Putin is trying pretty hard to convert oil and wheat indirectly for gold as he exchanges western currency for rubles and then makes the transaction….thus the West are a little antsy…

At least gold has value. Paper? As long as we have trust and faith. Thank god the USA has big weapons to motivate the world to trust them.

I’d rather have some gold than none…ask China, India and Russia….and luckily Canada has some in the ground as long as jr. doesn’t sell it again.

You are not Russia. – Garth

#25 Leftover on 05.09.22 at 3:07 pm

Here’s what I see on the street:

Houses that were listed last month for “X” are disappearing from MLS.ca and reappearing a couple of days later for 0.9 times “X”.

Loan officers at schedule A banks (I know one very well) are lending out based on a 4.6% cost of funds. That means that nothing is going out the door at less than 5%, and they’re being told that next moth it could rise by 75 bps.

Actual inflation (gas, food, rent) is running at 10% or more.

Whether it’s a hard or soft landing is the only question left. At this point I’d say “hard”, more like 1982 or 1989.

#26 periodic investor failures on 05.09.22 at 3:10 pm

Boy oh boy I don’t know what looks like a better buy this week a bond index or a stock index. Everything feels oversold but everything also feels inflated.

#27 Linda on 05.09.22 at 3:10 pm

‘Howie’ looks like he is enjoying a life of luxury:)

Someone paid $1 million US for Cryptopunk #273? Even better, someone else paid $139,530 for the same item? So buyer #2 just proves that even the least sensible purchase can still sell, albeit at one smoking loss. Because even with an 80% haircut on the original price tag, buyer #2 paid too much. The kids in our family could create a copy out of Lego & it would probably look better. Plus be touchable & could be used to create other ‘artwork’. Mind, our government paid $1 million Canadian years ago for a painting which I believe is called ‘Tongue of Fire’. Anyone with a steady hand & a paint roller could have painted it, as it comprised of 3 vertical paint stripes reminiscent of someone trying out shades on the wall before making a decision as to what color to paint with.

#28 Linda on 05.09.22 at 3:13 pm

Looked up the artwork. It is actually titled ‘Voice of Fire’. Still not exactly in the league of Van Gogh, Picasso or Rembrandt.

#29 Sail Away on 05.09.22 at 3:13 pm

#16 None on 05.09.22 at 2:49 pm

Hey Blog dogs.

I have until tomorrow to take advantage of the 35K lOC at 1% for 6 months.

Seems like I may be missing an opportunity to actually make some money on leverage for a change…

What do you people think?

——–

That’s an unanswerable question. Nobody knows what markets will do.

If you have a lot of knowledge about a certain company or sector, strongly believe it is undervalued, AND have had good success doing this in the past, then maybe, but it’s something only you can answer.

If you’re asking about borrowing $35k for the mere fact of having $35k to invest in something, somewhere, at some random valuation… you may as well borrow it and put it all on red at the casino.

#30 long time lurker on 05.09.22 at 3:15 pm

Quite a few people at work are saying their retirement funds are getting destroyed by the current market condition, now they have to postpone retirement.

They’re drama queens. – Garth

#31 Eric on 05.09.22 at 3:21 pm

Within a span of one month we received two letters from our mortgage company with our VR going from 1.45 to 1.7, then going to 2.2. It doesn’t move a needle for us as we have less than 18K left on the mortgage but I can’t imagine for those that have 1 mil+ on their mortgage

#32 Millennial 1%er on 05.09.22 at 3:26 pm

I’m actually more upset about mcdoubles becoming 2.99 than my “loss” in the s&p 500

#33 Caffeine Monkey on 05.09.22 at 3:29 pm

“do not abandon maple”

Of course you shouldn’t, especially because as an investor your time horizon should be decades, not years or even weeks.

That said, a huge fraction of the CDN economy is residential real estate (aka. HGTV). Not only that, but Canadians are massively leveraged from hoovering up as much crack mansions as possible. As interest rates rise and the rug gets pulled, I know that many sectors of the economy won’t be impacted, but how can consumer spending not be? I don’t see how consumer cyclicals won’t face an extended downturn when the HELOC taps get shut off.

#34 jess on 05.09.22 at 3:30 pm

the very financially literate david dodge calls out PP.”BULL__T!

https://www.ctvnews.ca/video?clipId=2437188

#35 Timmy on 05.09.22 at 3:31 pm

Garth is it time to buy a NASDAQ etf now?

#36 Quintilian on 05.09.22 at 3:36 pm

#1 dave on 05.09.22 at 2:01 pm
“For those who want to buy a house, when is a good time? Timing the market is never a good idea.

Prices are dropping, how much of correction might be coming in 2022?

Buy when you need a house and can afford one without gutting your personal finances or imperiling your family. The advice never changes. – Garth”

Garth: you might after make a slight alteration to the axiomatic advice.
Just because you can afford a house at 1.5% doesn’t mean you will be able to afford it when you go to renew.
Tick Tock, Tick Tock

#37 TurnerNation on 05.09.22 at 3:40 pm

Attn. all Schlock Pickers, Yieldhounds and BSDs.
Let us steady ourselves for a rip-your-face-off rally in the Treasury Blondes.

https://finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?t=ZB&p=h1

#38 alexinvestor on 05.09.22 at 3:44 pm

I’m starting to like the S&P index again. All the money that’s flowing into dollars will need a home. Does it make sense to buy bonds if one thinks the Fed will raise rates again … that’s a guaranteed loss.

#39 Keith on 05.09.22 at 3:50 pm

@ #28 Linda

I prefer the uber controversial Voice of Fire, time has proved it to be a fantastic return on money spent.

https://legionmagazine.com/en/2019/04/appreciating-voice-of-fire/?msclkid=c4fdffb8cfd011eca5c37ddf9580a1a0

#40 NOSTRADAMUS on 05.09.22 at 4:04 pm

THE CARDINAL SIN.
The prospect of missed payments will shortly be causing problems across the landscape as economic pain spreads from tenants and property owners to lenders and beyond. Real estate investors, many of whom committed the “Cardinal Sin” of using short term debt in order to finance their long term dream assets. This will make it extremely hard for re-financing as their short term mortgages mature. “Lenders are tightening up on their lending criteria.” So much for the past 20 year variable rate mortgage winners. I am anticipating a drop of 30% or more in real estate values. Re-finance will prove difficult and the possibility of bailing out by selling will prove impossible. This will be a slow bleed out as the make believe asset appreciation withers away like an ice cube in death valley. I guess, cash is not trash after all. No worry, it’s just the tide going out, blue sky’s, dry sand, sun shining. A perfect time to pitch the umbrella and enjoy the beach, crack a bubbly, fire up the barbeque. WHOA! “Excuse me, but I need to run an errand about 20 miles inland. See you in a bit. Hold on, someone at the door.

#41 bill on 05.09.22 at 4:04 pm

#Bill

Tesla is the biggest ponzi scheme in history.

#42 Zoltan on 05.09.22 at 4:08 pm

The fed told you they were going to crash the market months ago. Zoltan went public on this too.

I sold all my bubble stock ETFs a while back and in full cash right now.

Buy and hold stocks, why?

The fed told you to sell.

#43 The Original Jake on 05.09.22 at 4:27 pm

Garth, I recall that emotions chart from March 2020 days. I don’t think we’re quite there yet with this selloff. Still haven’t seen total capitulation yet, this will come when even the best of the best (like Apple) get whacked big like the SHOP-ifyers did today. And for the Dow, I think we come close to 30k before we settle.

#44 Lou on 05.09.22 at 4:28 pm

SHOP is down 80% since all-time high, which is substantially more than BTC. And this WAS the highest cap stock on the TSX. Brutal.

#45 Bob on 05.09.22 at 4:31 pm

The ironic thing in posting Cryptopunk #273 is that doing so proves just how worthless NFTs really are. Anyone can view, share, or do whatever they like with your “property.” It’s quite literally yours in name only.

#46 ts on 05.09.22 at 4:38 pm

Garth, how do you think Blackstone will affect the real estate market? Apparently they’re opening an office in Toronto.

#47 West New West on 05.09.22 at 4:45 pm

When I left the corporate world and started up with my own business 20 years ago I got recommended to an accountant, who had been in the business for many many years and retired shortly after I met him.

We got talking about what one should do if the economy exploded….I won’t ever forget this grisly old guy, at the tail end of his career, saying to me ‘cash is king, it always has been and always will be, so make sure you have lots on hand, ready to go’. It was advice his father gave him, after he survived the depression.

I made it a priority to pay more with cash, and keep a good supply of cash on hand. Its the same advice I now give to my 16 year old, and she gets it.

Your are so right Garth….cash is king. And US cash is the KING of the kings. I have traveled all over the world and there has never been a person who, when I slipped a US bill into their hand, did not know what they were receiving….US dollars are the universal language of currency, known by everyone everywhere. Its the same today as it was 30 years ago…..

#48 Faron on 05.09.22 at 4:57 pm

#41 bill on 05.09.22 at 4:04 pm

#Bill

Tesla is the biggest ponzi scheme in history.

bill, you really have to issue a trigger warning when you say this kind of thing. The @keubiko rule applies strongly here: there is a monotonic relationship between corporate scamminess and how inflamed and defensive the supporters are.

https://twitter.com/Keubiko/status/1521911081177919488/photo/1

It’s like dropping cesium into water.

#49 Grunt on 05.09.22 at 4:59 pm

Sat thru Y2K – remember freedom 55? And thru 2008. Gonna sit this one out.

BoA calling for bear thru to Oct.

#50 The Original Jake on 05.09.22 at 4:59 pm

#44 Lou

Like Nortel and RIM before, history has shown Canadian high flyers are easy targets for shorts. SHOP now joins that list of capital destruction.

#51 Prince Polo on 05.09.22 at 5:25 pm

#8 Prince Polo on 05.09.22 at 2:27 pm
I thought contributions-in-kind only automatically trigger capital gains (if applicable), but not capital losses (if applicable). May you please clarify the “claim against taxable income” section? Thank you sire!

Yup, gains are triggered. Losses are lost. But if you want to hang on to an asset that is flat or slightly negative, and recoup some of the loss, then make a contribution in kind and deduct it from taxable income as you would any RRSP deposit. – Garth

Thanks for clarifying! For the “honour roll” blog dogs, there’s also the possibility of double credit: selling for a capital loss, and contributing the cash to RRSP. Although, I am not sure whether one would have to wait 30 days before buying again (superficial loss rule?) if it’s a different account altogether…

#52 Linda on 05.09.22 at 5:26 pm

#39 ‘Keith’ – I also read that column regarding the possible price appreciation of ‘Voice of Fire’. This of course presumes that if said piece went to auction that someone would pay comparable amounts that other works by the artist were sold for. As ‘Cryptopunk #237’ shows, just because someone paid X for the art doesn’t mean that is what it will sell for later on….. This also applies to RE. Just because I own a house & other houses nearby sell for X doesn’t mean I’ll get the same price if I decided to sell mine. It all depends on just what the market is doing at the time when the item is put up for sale. It is like counting on receiving an inheritance. Maybe you will get money, but you could also get nothing but a bunch of creditors looking to recoup $ from the estate.

#53 VladTor on 05.09.22 at 5:26 pm

When I first learned about NFT, I could not believe that there are idiots who are willing to pay crazy money for it. Well, just imagine that the server (hard drive in reality) on which your unique ones and zeros are stored is dead ….. I laughed like a child. The world is going crazy! However, I find the idea ingenious and there are many fools. The main thing is good advertising.

#54 Linda on 05.09.22 at 5:41 pm

Oops, meant to type ‘273’. Regardless, an item is only worth what someone will pay for it. If no one wants to buy, the value of the item is effectively in its potential use. At least one can live in a house. Not sure what other use a NFT would have.

#55 The real Kip (Ret) on 05.09.22 at 5:52 pm

Can’t believe the found someone stupid enough to pay $128k for CryptoPunk#238. I wouldn’t pay $1.28.

#56 Oakville Stinks on 05.09.22 at 5:59 pm

This is just the next step in the WEF’s plans. Just have to accept the fact that it makes no sense just like everything else in the world right now.

#57 Growth stockist on 05.09.22 at 6:08 pm

In last few weeks I have bought,

SHOP
CRWD
DDOG
UPST
MP
PLUG
NIO
LTCH
GLXY
DDD
DM
PINS

Will soon buy NFLX AMZN GOOG.

Will wait for inflation cycle to pass before adding commodities.

All these are risky part of my portfolio, about 15% of total portfolio.Rest in Index funds,ETFs etc.

#58 Altwaheed Bin Said Bin ther andunthat on 05.09.22 at 6:14 pm

@#47 West New West

US dollars are the universal language of currency, known by everyone everywhere. Its the same today as it was 30 years ago…..

——————————————————————

But in the last 30yrs, just like Zimbabwe, it has to continuously add zeros after its debt just to keep the system propped up. Just look at all the US exchanges and you have to wonder where did the money come from to raise those indexes from lows of 2020 till peak of 2021.

#59 Shawn on 05.09.22 at 6:30 pm

#27 Linda on 05.09.22 at 3:10 pm

Mind, our government paid $1 million Canadian years ago for a painting which I believe is called ‘Tongue of Fire’. Anyone with a steady hand & a paint roller could have painted it, as it comprised of 3 vertical paint stripes reminiscent of someone trying out shades on the wall before making a decision as to what color to paint with.

***************

Tonque or Voice, a waste of by any other name. I remember that debacle.

According to Keith at 39 it originally was displayed in the American Pavilion at Expo ’67. I was seven that year and at EXPO and well remember the American Pavilion. One of the two monorails ran right through it. Somehow, that painting escaped my notice.

#60 crowdedelevatorfartz on 05.09.22 at 6:39 pm

What is it with Liberal MP’s feeling the need to undress or urinate while on Parliamentary Zoom calls?

https://nationalpost.com/news/another-mp-was-caught-bringing-the-house-of-commons-to-the-bathroom-via-zoom

3rd times a charm?

#61 Damifino on 05.09.22 at 6:41 pm

#11 Amok

If Conservatives choose him to lead the party it will be another 10 years of Liberals in power.
——————————-

I fear that’s the likely outcome regardless of who they choose as leader. If hard right won’t do the trick then Liberal light probably won’t cut it either. Woe is us.

#62 Concerned Citizen on 05.09.22 at 6:51 pm

A few signs of the everything bubble collapsing that I will be on the lookout for:

– Megacaps trade for 20 times or less trailing earnings rather than 30.

– Meme stocks (like GME) are back to pre-meme era levels (e.g. GME below $20, rather than the $100 it closed at today)

– Crypto goes to zero

– Fed funds rate gets to 3% or higher (fat chance of that happening, they’ll probably pause somewhere in the 1%-2% range)

– Upper middle class Canadians can once again afford a home in Toronto or Vancouver (fat chance of that happening either)

We’ve seen a lot of hot air come out of some areas of the market (profit-less tech is down huge, consumer discretionary has taken it on the chin, etc.). But the megacaps are still largely hanging in there. In a non-zero interest rate environment, I would not be a buyer of megacaps trading at 25-30 P/E. They need to come down significantly in price before I’m a buyer of a broad index fund – at current levels the risk-adjusted returns are still quite poor IMO.

#63 Don on 05.09.22 at 6:57 pm

#1dave. My daughter and son in law are saving for a home with a baby on the way. They are renting super cheaply right now. They have a cost and carry in mind and nothing will move them. They won’t mind missing the bottom if the right place is there at the price that makes sense to them. They are free

#64 Love_The_Cottage on 05.09.22 at 6:59 pm

#50 The Original Jake on 05.09.22 at 4:59 pm

Like Nortel and RIM before, history has shown Canadian high flyers are easy targets for shorts. SHOP now joins that list of capital destruction.
_____________
It’s about whether the company has long term profitability. I was a consultant at Nortel briefly in 1998/99 in Brampton and they had a Tim Horton’s inside the building which was lined up all day. I remembering thinking this is crazy and can’t be sustained.

#65 Quintilian on 05.09.22 at 7:10 pm

“Of course, if you bought a NFT, you deserve whatever punishment God decides she should mete out.”

God has nothing to do with NFT. it is the devils work.
I think it’s more closely related to a Dr. Faustus thing.

#66 T-Rev on 05.09.22 at 7:10 pm

Day 2 of 6 of posting the following (or maybe less of there’s no responses this time). Forgive me Oh Bearded One:

I’m doing a GF poll to see what everyone thinks will become of rates and inflation. The winner probably won’t be known until 2023 or even 2024. Grand prize is a summertime visit from me on my Harely. To collect you must provide a dry place to sleep in your garden shed. To participate, please answer the following questions and rage your post with #ratepoll

1. At what rate will inflation peak in Canada?
2. What month and year will inflation peak?
3. What month and year will we see inflation fall back below 3%?
4. At what rate will the bank of canada overnight rate peak?
5. What month and year will the bank of canada overnight rate peak?
6. At what rate will the bank of canada 5-yr bond yield peak?
7. What month and year will the bank of Canada 5-yr bond yield peak?
8. When will the Canadian economy enter recession before December 2023?

I will post the same question every day until May 13th, and tabulate results. Remember, use #ratepoll to mark your post so I can easily search for it and add your response to the results, to be published May 15th

#67 Western Investor on 05.09.22 at 7:20 pm

“Okanagan housing prices drive exodus to Alberta and beyond
Cheaper housing, higher wages lure families east”
(Western Investor.com)
—————

If only I’d known that was all it would take…..

#68 Midnight’s on 05.09.22 at 7:23 pm

You can take the Liberal out of the jungle,
But you can’t take the jungle out of the Liberal. Lol…

https://nationalpost.com/news/another-mp-was-caught-bringing-the-house-of-commons-to-the-bathroom-via-zoom

#69 Sail Away on 05.09.22 at 7:26 pm

Ponz, Costco’s price continues to be downright ok.

#70 Philco on 05.09.22 at 7:27 pm

#2 My wife forced me on 05.09.22 at 2:08 pm
I avoided it for years. But recently she forced me to buy gold. They are lovely little bars.

When the lights go off soon. We will for sure have something to trade. Got kale, fish and firewood too.

Nobody trades gold for goods, or ever will again. You need cash. – Garth
=============
If it gets that bad your need a gun…not gold.
Gold bugs are out of their minds actually.
That said I bought some at $310 oz and forgot about it. Just for fun.

#71 BigD on 05.09.22 at 7:28 pm

Garth, if all interest rates are going up, why GIC’s, bank interest, not rising at same speed or at all?

#72 Faron on 05.09.22 at 7:29 pm

#141 Theresa Tam is a CHIMESE AGENT on 05.09.22 at 1:53 pm

I speak chimese. I also speak doorbell, gong, triangle and panflute.

#73 Syd Cixel on 05.09.22 at 7:36 pm

My financial institution just raised the interest rate it pays on a savings account from 0.06% to 0.1%. That’s a 66% increase! Wow! Who said rising interest rates are bad?

#74 AK on 05.09.22 at 7:42 pm

“Shopify, Canada’s fav techy stock, has shed a quarter of its value since last Thursday.”
=================================

Trading @ 10X sales. Still very expensive.

#75 Sail Away on 05.09.22 at 8:01 pm

#9 Faron on 05.09.22 at 2:31 pm

I do track some of the single-stock blunders. AFAICT you are deeply underperforming even NASDAQ

——–

Please share, as I am unaware of any blunders. Then we can track together, as we’ve joyfully done in the past: TSLA, miners, BB, Heloc, Alacer, etc. come to mind. No losses, mind you, but definitely some real-time shared trades.

Please identify these blunders in my personal portfolio you crow of.

#76 the Wheff penetrated Tru_Doh! on 05.09.22 at 8:05 pm

DELETED

#77 I don’t know on 05.09.22 at 8:10 pm

Of course it’s a good time to buy. Well, any time is a good time when you have the cash, but now is a really good time.

But most won’t.

They are greedy and will wait for cheaper prices, while they sit in fast depreciating cash. Truth is they will never actually pull the trigger. There’s always some issue. The fed, inflation, war. It’s always the same.

One thing is for sure though, they will come to blogs like this, call the rebound fake, and double down on their negativity because it has become clear the opportunity has passed…again.

This goes for both stocks and real estate. A buying opportunity is here, and it won’t last.

IDK

#78 Mr Canada on 05.09.22 at 8:10 pm

Did you see Pollievre’s performance at the recent debate?
Does anyone still believe that Canadians have an appetite for a mean-spirited bulldog populist as PM?
Never.

If Conservatives choose him to lead the party it will be another 10 years of Liberals in power. You’ve been warned.
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Compared to our current PM? Seriously ?

#79 Ponzius Pilatus on 05.09.22 at 8:15 pm

120 Observer on 05.09.22 at 11:41 am
It’s interesting how PP is energizing the whackos. – Garth

^^^^^^^^^^^^^

I think it’s mutual.
————————-
Thanks guys.
Trying to do my best.
Currently on a trip to Ontario and Quebec.
Fantastic weather.
Share my observations soon.

#80 Ponzius Pilatus on 05.09.22 at 8:25 pm

12 Dogman01 on 05.09.22 at 2:37 pm
Another great communication by Pierre Poilievre.

Gas Prices are Rising. This is How We Are Going to Lower Them.
———————
Simple.
Drive less.

#81 Ponzius Pilatus on 05.09.22 at 8:30 pm

First observation from Ontario and Quebec.
Gas Prices on par with BC.
IHTCD0.
How come?

#82 april on 05.09.22 at 8:43 pm

#77 – You’re right… you don’t know. This is not a “buying opportunity” in real estate. You a realtor?

#83 Ponzius Pilatus on 05.09.22 at 8:48 pm

#69 Sail Away on 05.09.22 at 7:26 pm
Ponz, Costco’s price continues to be downright ok.
—————
Can you stop stalking me?
Or do I have to get a restraining order?

#84 Shawn on 05.09.22 at 8:56 pm

Nortel and Tim Hortons

#64 Love_The_Cottage on 05.09.22 at 6:59 pm

It’s about whether the company has long term profitability. I was a consultant at Nortel briefly in 1998/99 in Brampton and they had a Tim Horton’s inside the building which was lined up all day. I remembering thinking this is crazy and can’t be sustained.

************************
Nortel was reporting GAAP losses those years while the financial press was mentioning only the fake non GAAP (non-sense in this case) profits. Stock was soaring to record highs based on non-sense.

The lesson here was that Tim Hortons was by far the better business. I think I bought it as soon as it went public and then bought Wendy’s shares when Wendy’s bought Tim Hortons. Actually my memory fades was it public before Wendy’s or only after? I know I bought it via Wendy’s because and made money that way.

Why was John Roth never vilified over his utter incompetence?

#85 april on 05.09.22 at 8:58 pm

$36 – Your not telling Garth anything he doesn’t know, [way over and above what you know by the sounds of it] re buying a house, mortgages etc.

#86 Ponzius Pilatus on 05.09.22 at 9:04 pm

Observation from my trip to Ontario and Quebec:

Montreal is dirty.
But the Metro is First Class.

#87 Philco on 05.09.22 at 9:18 pm

#77 I don’t know on 05.09.22 at 8:10 pm
====================
Nope way too soon dude or dudette. Your just talking smack.
If your buying a million dollar shack and had 20% down while RE could drop 20% in many areas, do the math on your 80% vs you 20 cash.
Too soon to go full on markets too. Way to soon to dig in.
I’m 65% cash these days. I nibbled on some preferreds and REITs but that’s it for now.
This bubble world could deflate a lot. Charts have cracked.
These are great times to kick back and look for bottoms.
There’s no rush in my view. My last property took me 5 years to find. Was a smoking deal at 2.3mil 5.5yrs later 7mil pumps large cash.
Never rush in Mang.

#88 Reality is stark on 05.09.22 at 9:19 pm

Look on the bright side.
The government borrowed a trillion to create 500 billion of value.
500 billion went to give people food and drugs during the pandemic to keep them alive physically and mentally.
500 billion went into housing so the government knows where the money is so they can tax it.
Now there will be additional costs to float the extra debt beyond what they can recoup by jacking property taxes and that is where higher personal income tax rates come in handy so prepare for that inevitability.
All we really did was add a lot of debt as our productivity fell and the government conveniently forgot to address their profligate spending problem because we have an inept crew of administrators who cannot manage costs.
What did we expect?
You can’t borrow into perpetuity and expect to prosper. You actually need a plan to pay down debt.
The taxman cometh and he will be rapacious.
In the next couple months a lot of folks will not be closing and that is when you will see just how indebted the average Canadian really is. They’ll be walking away from their deposits. You can’t take blood from a stone.
They will also be voting NDP for Universal Basic Income since it is only just.

#89 crowdedelevatorfartz on 05.09.22 at 9:25 pm

@#72 Faron.
Good one.

#90 crowdedelevatorfartz on 05.09.22 at 9:36 pm

@#78,79, 80
Ponzie’s Post Pandemic Provincial Party Preamble.

“Currently on a trip to Ontario and Quebec.
Fantastic weather.
Share my observations soon.”

+++
We’re good.
Take your time.
Let us know when you’re back….

#91 Observer on 05.09.22 at 9:36 pm

#79 Ponzius Pilatus on 05.09.22 at 8:15 pm
120 Observer on 05.09.22 at 11:41 am
It’s interesting how PP is energizing the whackos. – Garth

^^^^^^^^^^^^^

I think it’s mutual.
————————-
Thanks guys.
Trying to do my best.

^^^^^^^^^^^^^^
Not you. The other PP.

#92 DON on 05.09.22 at 10:03 pm

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-05-09/how-to-afford-rising-mortgage-costs-many-americans-are-finding-roommates?srnd=premium-canada

#93 Dinar & Durham on 05.09.22 at 10:21 pm

Bitcoin is an inflation hedge. Buy at 75,000 a few months ago, HODL it at 35,000 today.

#94 The Ancient One. on 05.09.22 at 10:29 pm

In the GTA we are still 26% above the pre Covid price March 2020. That is a lot of froth.

#95 fishman on 05.09.22 at 11:27 pm

Well there is a war going on. And you know what the Romans used to say. “Gold is the muscles of an army.”

#96 John on 05.10.22 at 12:19 am

DELETED (Anti-vaccine)

#97 NoBlood on 05.10.22 at 12:33 am

“If you’ve been sitting on cash waiting for blood in the gutters to invest, well, here we are.”

—————-

With VIX hovering below 35, this isn’t ‘blood in the streets’ time yet…I should know.

And about gold? It’s actually a ‘metal’, of the precious kind, not ‘rocks’. If there ever was a time to own some, it is now!

BITS

#98 BJ Thomas on 05.10.22 at 12:38 am

How many Bank of Canada Deputies Governor does it take to parrot the Federal Reserve?

Know your enemy. Don’t allow the swine to set y’all fighting amongst yourselves.

Usury if forbidden in the Bible and the Koran

#99 Dr V on 05.10.22 at 12:55 am

89 Fartz

“@#72 Faron.
Good one.”
—————————-

Yes, it was :)

#100 Bulletproof on 05.10.22 at 1:01 am

And a few leftist fools call investors “greedy”? How about the NDP MPP who owns pipeline shares for the dividends and yet is campaigning and protesting against pipelines. This is unmitigated hypocrisy and greed.

How about the latest OECD report that forecasts Canadian wages will be the lowest over the next 49 years compared to 38 other developed countries. Freeland days she’s got your back? Really? The budget is based on double immigration and a continuum of increased house prices. I’m going to go out on a limb and suggest that immigration is being weaponized into vote blocs and not utilized as an economic driver. Why?

The numbers in Freelands budget don’t work. Unless you think real estate doubling every five years under the Liberals is an MMT perpertual money creator for workers. Which it can not be. So why double immigration if it actually erodes real wages? The OECD says the Trudeau budget is false. Argue with them if you disagree.

Meanwhile , killing the energy industry is strangling the economy. It’s simple, less revenue from industry means higher taxes to stretch the bloated status quo. It’s a recipe for disaster. The EU has given up on the Climate Change gas bag, why is Trudeau desperately clinging to a false premise.

Now Guillbeau and Trudeau want carbon capture and want already broken companies to pay ( because they’re greedy) , but quickly scientists who ate no longer feeling the threatening anger if the Ghost of Greta have banded together in the thousands to voice the fact that the science is unproven and the technology doesnt exist.

It’s time for common sense to reassert itself in Canada. No more fantasy budgets or insane killing of revenue generators over a climate panic that doesn’t exist. Wake up.

Meanwhile, reality. Here’s where I’m at. It’s not a time to sell. A lot of the selling has been on the margin and computer generated. If you got caught up in too much FAANG that traded for 300 P/E you were just as stupid as the meme losers and deserve a haircut. But, if you invested smart you’d have a big pile in rising energy, a good pile in cash, stable dividend payers that keep generating more cash to buy the sales . I sleep fine.

There’s still excess to squeeze out. The market won’t turn until the street looks like a bloody massacre. It might take another good dump or two until we see the messy capitulation.

Housing needs a crash for many reasons. I believe we’ll see at least 40% when holders are squeezed from all sides. Much higher rates are guaranteed. I’m thinking ’91 to 2002 type setup. Pain ahead, cash is king here, buckle up. Reinvest the divvies across the trough. It might be a few rough years as we’ve seen before. It’s not like the CB can crash rates to create another false economy. The one trick pony has bolted

#101 Balmuto on 05.10.22 at 1:10 am

You were warned: don’t buy Bitcoin, it’s going to crash!

https://youtu.be/XbZ8zDpX2Mg

#102 Ustabe on 05.10.22 at 2:07 am

#75 Sail Away on 05.09.22 at 8:01 pm

#9 Faron on 05.09.22 at 2:31 pm

I do track some of the single-stock blunders. AFAICT you are deeply underperforming even NASDAQ

——–

Please share, as I am unaware of any blunders. Then we can track together, as we’ve joyfully done in the past: TSLA, miners, BB, Heloc, Alacer, etc. come to mind. No losses, mind you, but definitely some real-time shared trades.

Please identify these blunders in my personal portfolio you crow of.

For those interested this is SOP for the poster. Make a self-aggrandizing, grandiose statement, get called out on the veracity then demand the offending party mount Sail’s defense.

It must be so tiring to be forced to spend real life time with such a personality.

#103 Jane24 on 05.10.22 at 2:24 am

Montreal is always dirty in May as all the dropped garbage that has been hidden in snow banks all winter is suddenly exposed. Go back in early June as that is how long it takes them to clear the roads and public areas. Happens every year.

#104 Adam on 05.10.22 at 2:33 am

Garth, this was one of the best blog posts I’ve read in a while. Thank you.

#105 I don’t know on 05.10.22 at 6:43 am

82 april on 05.09.22 at 8:43 pm

If you look closely, you can see the irony in your post.

See if you can see it.

IDK

#106 Steve French on 05.10.22 at 6:52 am

Now is a good time to follow Garth’s advice about ignoring your investment account for a little while and going outside to walk the doggie…

#107 Sail Away on 05.10.22 at 7:22 am

#101 Ustabe on 05.10.22 at 2:07 am

For those interested this is SOP for the poster. Make a self-aggrandizing, grandiose statement, get called out on the veracity then demand the offending party mount Sail’s defense.

———-

Heck, I’m interested!

Veracity is way more ver with actual, like, backup. It’s sort of an engineering thing.

Although it is true that unsupported claims are easier. Right, U? I mean… right?

#108 TurnerNation on 05.10.22 at 7:23 am

Dear Diary. I still wear two pairs of socks, outside. To Protect Others. In case my feet smell.
A Beauty Day Eh in my prefecture. Still I see people outside wearing what I surmize to be coffee cone filters strapped to their faces. Have they tried Nespresso?

— Crowded and Fetid “UN Smart Cities” indeed.
Our rulers must be roaring with laughter from their private islands as the tax farm slaves
are given even more appropriate accomodation.

“A California startup is offering cocoon-like pods to allow 14 residents to share a single house as an escape from soaring rents and real estate prices”
https://news.yahoo.com/california-startup-offering-cocoon-pods-201330788.html


— We are at War Comrades. This is not deigned to “be over’ any time soon.
ABC 123 –see I made one up.
For those hanging on the USA’s figures. Ask yourself at their private, For-Profit hospitals is there any incentive to test and code people for CV and earn greater medical insurance payouts?

.New Omicron Subvariant B.A.2.12.1 Spreading Rapidly in the U.S. (people.com)

.U.S. to ask world for more on global Covid fight as its own cash dwindles (yahoo.com)

.EU votes to extend vaccine passes until at least summer 2023 (reclaimthenet.org)

—– It’s not an economic reset right but…all famines are man-made (government made). Check your history books.

.China faces ‘complicated and grim’ future as zero-Covid hits economy (telegraph.co.uk)

.In states where Covid cases are again on the rise, schools weigh safety measures, closures (yahoo.com)

#109 Zero Value Added on 05.10.22 at 7:35 am

#101 Ustabe on 05.10.22 at 2:07 am

For those interested this is SOP for the poster. Make a self-aggrandizing, grandiose statement, get called out on the veracity then demand the offending party mount Sail’s defense.

It must be so tiring to be forced to spend real life time with such a personality.

===========================

Yet as always you feel some strange compulsion to compound the tediousness of the SA/Faron bromance.

FYI, playing the wise owl is every bit as self-aggrandizing (and tiresome). Those two trolls will always be trolls but feeding them doesn’t help.

Or the painkillers just not working as well today?

#110 Ponzius Pilatus on 05.10.22 at 7:36 am

#102 Jane24 on 05.10.22 at 2:24 am
Montreal is always dirty in May as all the dropped garbage that has been hidden in snow banks all winter is suddenly exposed. Go back in early June as that is how long it takes them to clear the roads and public areas. Happens every year.
———————
That could be a reason.
But still not going back.
Just another large city, not very walkable.
Ottawa was better.

#111 Sail Away on 05.10.22 at 7:44 am

For my schedule-tracking fans: yes, I am again up and working at 4:30 am. The super power time, you know?

My body just feels so relaxed after yesterday’s Benson run. 50 seems to feel as good physically as any other age so far. And that’s good, since there’s a lot to do in the next 40 years!

#112 IHCTD9 on 05.10.22 at 8:00 am

#81 Ponzius Pilatus on 05.09.22 at 8:30 pm
First observation from Ontario and Quebec.
Gas Prices on par with BC.
IHTCD0.
How come?
______

2.23 in Van, 1.99 Toronto, according to the interwebz. Here in the sticks it’s been holding at 185.9 for the last week or so. But I see in town this am it’s 191.9, so that’s probably what it’ll be by the time I get back home tonight…

By the long weekend, we’ll all be paying 2.00+

#113 IHCTD9 on 05.10.22 at 8:11 am

#86 Ponzius Pilatus on 05.09.22 at 9:04 pm
Observation from my trip to Ontario and Quebec:

Montreal is dirty.
But the Metro is First Class.
____

Make sure you stop in at Schwartz’s Deli for a smoked meat sandwich before you go!

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Schwartz%27s

#114 Ponzius Pilatus on 05.10.22 at 8:50 am

#113 IHCTD9 on 05.10.22 at 8:11 am
#86 Ponzius Pilatus on 05.09.22 at 9:04 pm
Observation from my trip to Ontario and Quebec:

Montreal is dirty.
But the Metro is First Class.
____

Make sure you stop in at Schwartz’s Deli for a smoked meat sandwich before you go!

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Schwartz%27s
———————-
Thanks.
I was looking for an authentic Jewish Montreal Reuben sandwich.

#115 crowdedelevatorfartz on 05.10.22 at 9:24 am

@#110 Ponzies Pedestrian Problems
“Just another large city, not very walkable.
Ottawa was better.”
+++
I liked old Montreal and the Museum of archeology the rest of the city…. what ever. Not as bland as Toronto but close.
The Mont Royal park and the Cathedral on the other side of the park are excellent walks.
And you can catch the subway back.

Ottawa’s Rideau canal is a nice walk and the Parliament buildings ( when they’re open) .
The National Air Museum has the only WWI German bomber left in the world and the North Air float plane on display was actually flown by a friend of mine when he was a bush pilot in the 1960’s in northern Alberta.
The National War Museum should be called the National Army museum …no Naval displays at all unless you consider the design of the entire building ( a ship at sea) a nod to the Navy.

But the weather looks good there.
Pouring rain all week in the Lower Brain Land.

#116 Observer on 05.10.22 at 9:27 am

#111 Sail Away on 05.10.22 at 7:44 am
For my schedule-tracking fans: yes, I am again up and working at 4:30 am. The super power time, you know?

My body just feels so relaxed after yesterday’s Benson run. 50 seems to feel as good physically as any other age so far. And that’s good, since there’s a lot to do in the next 40 years!

^^^^^^^^^^^^^^
It seems you have Garth’s blog confused with your personal diary.

#117 The joy of steerage on 05.10.22 at 9:32 am

#110 Ponzius Pilatus on 05.10.22 at 7:36 am
#102 Jane24 on 05.10.22 at 2:24 am
Montreal is always dirty in May as all the dropped garbage that has been hidden in snow banks all winter is suddenly exposed. Go back in early June as that is how long it takes them to clear the roads and public areas. Happens every year.
———————
That could be a reason.
But still not going back.
Just another large city, not very walkable.
Ottawa was better.
….

But Ottawa is full of it….. have to watch where ya step

#118 NoName on 05.10.22 at 9:38 am

Its not all that bad even if they delute any of their their domestic beer half and half with water itll steel be better than popular light beers here…

https://mobile.twitter.com/WallStreetSilv/status/1524012805413904386

#119 crowdedelevatorfartz on 05.10.22 at 10:06 am

@#114 Ponzies Perfect Platter.

I’ve been to Swartz’s Deli.
Overrated.
But you get to say you ate a Corned beef on Rye at Swartz’s….

#120 Dharma Bum on 05.10.22 at 10:14 am

#114 Ponzi

Thanks.
I was looking for an authentic Jewish Montreal Reuben sandwich.
————————————————————————————————-

I’ve been to that place, a long, long time ago, as in, back in the day, eh.

It was established on December 31, 1928, by Reuben Schwartz, a Jewish immigrant from Romania. (Wikipedia)

1928. WOW. Almost 100 years ago.

I was amazed at how good the food was – but like I said – that was back in the 70s and 80s.

The joint has had 5 owners over the last century. The quality, authenticity, and integrity of their food has steadily declined.

That would not be necessarily noticeable for a recent first time patron, since, although nowhere nearly as good as it used to be, it’s still better than 99% of the restaurant slop served up almost anywhere else. Especially for “deli-sandwich” type grub (which is virtually non-existent in today’s bland plastic restaurant lunch fare scene).

It’s currently owned by Celine Dion and her family. Ugh.

Knowhutimsayin’?

But enough of this living in the past nonsense.

The good old days are long gone, and, as Yogi Berra once said, even the future ain’t what it used to be!

#121 Stone on 05.10.22 at 10:28 am

#18 I’mshort_corpdebt on 05.09.22 at 2:55 pm
Wow, 26% down YTD for Nsdq is quite the feat. This month’s dictum ‘Sell in May and go away’ does prove it’s weight in black gold.

The index gained 22% last year. Keep things in context. – Garth

———

All the more reason to have a balanced & globally diversified portfolio. Currently sitting at -7.10% ytd. 2021 returned 21.70%. As at May 6, 2022, the dividend yield for my B&D is 3.22%.

No stress. No fuss. No worries.

#122 Doug t on 05.10.22 at 11:56 am

#108 TurnerNation

it aint over till the fat lady sings

#123 Faron on 05.10.22 at 11:58 am

#111 Sail Away on 05.10.22 at 7:44 am

This isn’t your blog. Literally zero people here GAF. Stop wasting Garth’s time.

#124 Faron on 05.10.22 at 12:10 pm

#75 Sail Away on 05.09.22 at 8:01 pm

AFAICT, you are deeply underwater relative to S&P on NFLX, ISRG, BX and you reccommended Ponz toss some bucks into the woodchipper on COST. You have also chastized me for reccommending against Gerber Kawasaki and Cathie Wood whose funds are laughably guttered because… duh. 3/4 of your miners are deep capital losses after having ignored a couple more sage commenter advice to take profit near the top. GEO is a garbage pile. Etc.

Will your bags recover? Maybe. Eventually. But your picks have been inappropriate crap for the purposes of Garth’s blog.

#125 kommykim on 05.10.22 at 12:48 pm

I wonder where this old blog dog is today?
His prediction might just come true now a decade later:

#22 Realtors are in an all out panic on 09.17.12 at 10:37 pm
It’s going to be a nasty crash realtors a nasty crash.

#126 Victor V on 05.10.22 at 1:08 pm

“Just saw a home in the GTA that sold, was scheduled to close in April. Buyer couldnt close. It was relisted and sold again this month for 18% BELOW prior sale price.”

https://twitter.com/benrabidoux/status/1524033840817311746

#127 Sail Away on 05.10.22 at 1:18 pm

#123 Faron on 05.10.22 at 11:58 am
#111 Sail Away on 05.10.22 at 7:44 am

This isn’t your blog. Literally zero people here GAF.

——–

Clearly, you care deeply. Happy to oblige.

FYI, I’d recommend caution speculating about others’ stock returns, since… drawing conclusions based on a single anecdotal data point would represent ‘bad science’, at least among the scientists I know. Quite a glaring lack of rigour, shall we say? Peer reviewers would not be happy. That said, flexible science can be quite popular in certain fields.

#128 Julia on 05.10.22 at 1:28 pm

Garth you need to stop talking down the Canadian real estate market. False news is a criminal offense.

Is this Moscow now? – Garth

#129 Faron on 05.10.22 at 1:28 pm

#99 Dr V on 05.10.22 at 12:55 am

89 Fartz

“@#72 Faron.
Good one.”
—————————-

Yes, it was :)

Thanks guys. We all have our moments. However, I really don’t want to sniff too much around the “moment” when crowdie laughs.

#130 Shawn on 05.10.22 at 1:33 pm

How a 7% loss feels

#121 Stone on 05.10.22 at 10:28 am
The index gained 22% last year. Keep things in context. – Garth

———

All the more reason to have a balanced & globally diversified portfolio. Currently sitting at -7.10% ytd. 2021 returned 21.70%. As at May 6, 2022, the dividend yield for my B&D is 3.22%.

No stress. No fuss. No worries.

****************************
No argument. But I can tell you that losing say 7% of $100k or $500k is one thing. It feels a little different when it’s 7% of $ 2 million. And that’s the case no matter if you just gained 22%.

At some point the quantum of money lost also matters. Like when it’s equivalent to serval years employment income it just starts to feel different.

Anyhow, this Spring is a cake walk compared to Spring 2020 and we lived through that…

No money is ‘lost’ if paper declines are not realized. It’s interesting how the human brain always turns ceilings into floors. – Garth

#131 Bdwy on 05.10.22 at 2:12 pm

No money is ‘lost’ if paper declines are not realized. – Garth


Unless it’s a house ;)

Only if you’re a specker. – Garth

#132 Bdwy on 05.10.22 at 2:21 pm

One to watch. A teardown 1 block from comm dr. Just listed.

Its listed in line with the recent high water mark for the area. 1.25x size and price of std lot. Land value only.

Ask is 2.5

Softer maybe. Higher unlikely. I expect close to ask and quick sale.

#133 Bdwy on 05.10.22 at 2:26 pm

This one.

1765 GRAVELEY STREET
Vancouver, British Columbia V5L3A9

MLS® Number: R2676559

#134 Shawn on 05.10.22 at 2:49 pm

Paper Gains and Losses

No money is ‘lost’ if paper declines are not realized. It’s interesting how the human brain always turns ceilings into floors. – Garth

************************
Okay there is SOME truth to that.

But of course any notion that ALL unrealized gains and losses are somehow not real violates the rules of accounting as well as common sense not to mention reality.

#135 Victor V on 05.10.22 at 6:49 pm

“CIBC hiked its 5yr posted to 5.79% today vs. 4.99% in April. Few may care, but that 80 bps could cost borrowers a world of hurt due to IRD penalty calculations (eg. if rates fall in 2024 & they try to break a 5yr fixed early).

Surprised banks haven’t lifted posted rates more.“

https://twitter.com/robmclister/status/1524052562130968579

#136 Reality is stark on 05.10.22 at 10:20 pm

If you really want to fight for freedom get to the Eastern Ukraine and pick up a gun and be a real man.
Don’t put a flag on your pick-up truck like Pierre Whatzhisname tough guy and get all bombastic like the Trumpster.
John Brophy was tough. Hunter Harrison was tough. Zalensky and Klitschko are
Kerry was tough and Bush was a national guard drunk.
Don’t get snowed by Fox media and the blowhards they support.
You know the difference by now.