The big shed

Whadda week. Markets gyrating. Real estate plopping. The Fed pulling the trigger. Roe v Wade causing mayhem. Canuck Cons cannibalizing each other. More war. Tech wreck. Higher food prices. Gas at two bucks a litre tomorrow. And on Friday we got pivotal employment reports.

What do the jobs numbers mean?

In Canada we eked out a gain of 15,000, less than half the expected number, but the unemployment rate dropped to 5.2% – the lowest since 1976. You might be amused to know a million workers in this country staged a protest in that year against wage and price controls which were brought in to tackle inflation of 7.6%. (We’ll be there again by next month…)

Economists say this small number indicates a dearth of job-seekers compared to unfilled positions. The imbalance between demand and supply means upward pressure on incomes which is, yes, inflationary. We’ve added a million paycheques in the past year and are now way above BeforeTimes levels. It means interest rates will keep rising.

“The economy is at full employment,” says TD. And at RBC economists predict this: “With upward wage pressure adding to inflation concerns, the Bank of Canada is expected to continue to hike interest rates aggressively from what are still historically low levels. Today’s data strengthens the case for another 50 bp hike to the overnight rate in June.”

In the States, another 428,000 jobs last month. That’s good, but rapidly escalating labour costs and a drop on in productivity ain’t what the doctor ordered. In fact, the report is being called ‘horrendous’, forcing the Fed into a rock-or-hard-place choice. Let inflation rip (not an option) or inflate rates more and hope for the best (a mild recession). Unknown is the impact of surging energy, psycho Putin’s next move or when the numbnuts running China will unchain those apartment buildings in Shanghai.

Meanwhile high rates and an end to WFH are thrashing the tech babies like Shopify, Netflix, Peloton and Amazon. We’ve only just started into a tightening cycle and bond yields are climbing higher than Johnnie Depp’s BP when he sees “her”. No wonder Mr. Market is confused. And until he stops reeling, it’s a great time to ignore everything and watch your dog moult.

Now, a few words on our fav Canadian asset which is (natch) your house.

“In April the brakes were applied very hard.  VERY HARD,” says a player. Generally the numbers are worst the further out you go – so this is imploding from the outside.” And that’s entirely consistent with the GTA. Recall that yesterday we gave you stats showing a detached house in Pickering, for example, is now devaluing by $100,000 a month. Ouch for recent buyers!

A point worth nothing in YVR. The market is decelerating – negative momentum. Let’s compare the rate at which sales alter in a month compared to typical seasonal change. In April this momentum turned negative the fastest ever, save for two other months – April of 2020 (Covid hit) or February of 2018 (big new taxes levied). And we’ve only started with the higher mortgages.

Well, there’s more.

Not everybody borrows mortgage money from one of the Big Six or a local credit union. This real estate insanity has seen billions taken from lenders specializing in servicing ‘non-prime’ borrowers with bruised credit or dodgy incomes (or non-rich parentals).

“Remember that non-prime loans in Canada are overwhelmingly 1-yr terms…including at HCG and EQB. Take a look at what’s happening to those mortgage rates and what’s about to hit those borrowers at renewal. Yikes!” says analyst Ben Rabidoux. This simply means people who bought a year ago are about to face renewals at rates which will be double. And a bunch will see their loans not renewed. They’ll be forced to hit MLS

Then there’s the pre-con condo thing.

Readers may recall the night of Chrystia’s budget we told you about the surprise slapping HST on all assignment sales. Lots of people have bought condos from plans, declaring their intention to live in the units when completed. Most of them lie, in order to escape paying HST on the sale. Then they flip the unit to an end-user before construction is finished. It’s been an easy trade.

No more. Effective tomorrow (May 7) all assignment sales are subject to HST. It applies to the sale of the unit from the builder to the original buyer (13%) and additional tax (another 13%) on the price paid by the second buyers. So, starting Saturday, that’s 26% tax.

This will likely kill the assignment market (it’s big in the GTA) dead. It also puts an arrow through the heart of speculators who bought units just to hold until completion, then dump them for a profit on the resale market. Now they must make enough money to cover the 13% HST plus 5% commission. That requires an escalation in value of 18% just to break even – in a declining market. Good luck with that.

Add in 5% mortgages, on their way to 6% soon, Ottawa’s new anti-flip tax, the foreign buyer ban for the next two years, a crazy 5% under-utilized house tax in Vancouver, a new vacancy tax in Toronto and Ottawa plus the anti-non-resident tax nuttiness in NS and, well, you know were this is going.

What to do?

See the advice above. I recommend the Furminator grooming rake.

130 comments ↓

#1 TurnerNation on 05.06.22 at 2:55 pm

US long bond ETF. If any other type of bond’s chart looked like this one I’d say that it is pricing in risk of Default.
Probably only the interest rate hikes.

https://finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?t=ZB&p=m1


— Science update. People have noticed, they really want MRNA into us. A.Z. was banned in Kanada.

.FDA sharply limits use of Johnson & Johnson shot due to “rare” blood clots (www.msn.com)

— Stack em and Pack em is the model for our crowded, fetid “UN Smart Cities”.
Comrade which Bloc are you living in?

https://www.blogto.com/real-estate-toronto/2022/05/canary-block-13-toronto/
Block 13 is proposed with 63,943.5 square metres of space, the majority dedicated to residential, occupying almost 98.5 per cent of the total floor area.

This would include 859 condominium units proposed in a mix of 35 studios, 491 one-bedrooms, 246 two-bedrooms, and 87 three-bedroom units. Among the three bedrooms, plans call for 45 two-storey townhouse units

#2 wallflower on 05.06.22 at 3:07 pm

The listings keep going uppa uppa in my small city southern Ontariowe.
So do the rental listings!

In 2021, 70% of the newly minted permanent residents and Canadians were already here. (typically, the ratio is 30% already here, 70% offshore incoming)

And, new arrivals are finding things not so rosy meaning, an increasing number will bail; so methinks that whole “immigrants make the market” argument is vacuous.

It has been specuvestors making the market.
And delirious spawn of stuffed-portfolio-parents.

Ordering more popcorn.

#3 Flop… on 05.06.22 at 3:10 pm

I’m staying in the market.

I take paper losses like a champion, just like when someone used to steal the newspaper I had just delivered on my BMX when I was 10…

M47BC

#4 ElGatoNeroYVR on 05.06.22 at 3:11 pm

Good ,it was about time someone deals with the assignment sales. it shouldˋve been banned all together unless court ordered sale.
Here in GVA you basically couldn’t buy a single condo in desirable locations unles it was assignment.
Next the marketing of units only outside Canada should be banned. Basically a solid percentage of these units are not being offered for sale in Canada ,instead they are being listed on foreign sites only.
Yes ,I understand in theory it is a small percentage but it is impactful enough in my opinion due to the domino effect and reinforcing bad behaviour.
Now going back to assignemnts it will be interesting to see if it will drive prices up even further from those that can secure financing to take possesion either by the means of a mortgage ( maybe with an AirBnB bussiness plan) or a “Rent to Buy” contract or how many will have to cut their losses short.

#5 bdwy on 05.06.22 at 3:14 pm

what a doggy mess!

sales in the last week or 2 in this part of east van showing no softness yet. detached all time high 2.3 to2.5.

supply all but zero.

#6 webslinger on 05.06.22 at 3:16 pm

My mortgage is coming up for renewal and I am being offered a 4.29% fixed. How does that compare to other blog dogs?

#7 Jax the Cat on 05.06.22 at 3:17 pm

“ will unchain those apartment buildings in Shanghai”

Never! The human is now trapped at my beck and meow 24/7!

#8 Jay on 05.06.22 at 3:18 pm

Well I’ll tell you what I would do get the hell out of Dodge.

#9 Shawn on 05.06.22 at 3:19 pm

Double HST of 13% paid twice in a Condo assignment deal?

For goodness sakes, everyone just move to Alberta where at least it will be 5% twice instead of 13% twice.

#AlbertaAdvantage

#10 crowdedelevatorfartz on 05.06.22 at 3:20 pm

Oh my God!
This housing market reset is gonna be EPIC!

Worse than Johnny “Debts” legal bills.
:)

#11 crowdedelevatorfartz on 05.06.22 at 3:24 pm

@#104 & 105 Quinty’s Questionable Quorum

Nah.
I’m staying invested AND loading up on cash….. because I can
:)

As for Chrystia’s “Reign of Error”….
It aint over yet.

#12 EQ Bank customer on 05.06.22 at 3:25 pm

But EQ bank offer the highest 1 year GICs. Does that mean it’s a risky investment to buy a 1-year GIC at currently 3.15%?

#13 Victor Maitland on 05.06.22 at 3:26 pm

I heard a real estate lawyer talking last night about the many clients he’s had who are buying pre-con. He said the majority are buying to flip on assignment prior to closing. And not only do they not intend to close, but they do not have the financial means to close even if they wanted to. “Majority”. His word, not mine. He never specified, but presumably the deposits and transactions costs are financed entirely by HELOCs. How is that going to blow up in the months ahead?

#14 T Dog on 05.06.22 at 3:31 pm

What are the chances our B&D’s revert to where they were in Jan 2022 by EoY?

#15 Dr V on 05.06.22 at 3:31 pm

Hmmm. Timed my fill up nicely…

#16 froggy on 05.06.22 at 3:39 pm

FIRST TO SAY WE’ER DOOMED

#17 Premie on 05.06.22 at 3:40 pm

Collapse of urban presale market: does this mean short term crash as investors unload?

In the long run, what does this mean for supply? Surely builders lose their shirt if buyers for new builds dry up?

#18 Ustabe on 05.06.22 at 3:41 pm

Today I read that approximately 7.7% of men and 4.8% of women in the general population have Narcissistic Personality Disorder: a mental illness characterized by grandiosity and a general lack of empathy.

Read the responses to today’s blog carefully, eh?

Lastly, a bit more on morel mushrooms. They love disturbed soil, so recently logged over areas can be good picking. They, however really, really love burned over areas. So hunting in and around last years forest fires areas would be productive. The Okanagan will be a morel hot spot this year.

If you walk up on a good looking area but only see three or four scattered morels just pin the spot on your phone and come back tomorrow…there will be loads.

#19 Doug t on 05.06.22 at 3:48 pm

Throw in the lack of physicians in this country – things are spiralling out of control

#20 Tom on 05.06.22 at 3:50 pm

If YVR is decelerating then why are homes still being bought above list price?

Greater fools. Duh. – Garth

#21 T-Rev on 05.06.22 at 3:51 pm

“What to do?”

Well Gartho, howzabout start by moving to the only place in Canada that hasn’t lost it’s mind (even if our premier has, repeatedly)? Here in much maligned Alberta (Edmonton specifically), gas is $1.60 (actually saw once station at $139.9 earlier this week), there’s no HST, a 1800sq ft with a double attached garage in the “burbs” (what we call the bedroom communities 20 minutes from the core) can be had for under $450k still, and we have a world-class university and the same broken-but-they’re-excellent-when-you-REALLY-need-them healthcare system as everywhere else in Beaverton. Oh, and even now, 8 years after the last serious oil boom, wages are STILL the highest in Canada. Yup, our white collar professionals may not print dollars like they do on Bay Street, but for everyone who’s not a lawyer or banker, Alberta is still the best place to make bank. Depends what you want out of life, but Alberta is a great place to make your stand against the craziness. And despite the CBCs attempts to paint us otherwise, the province is extremely diverse and welcoming to people of all backgrounds…I’ve heard it called by many the most egalitarian province in confederation. We just outright reject Woke identity politics, so that doesn’t play well with the current ethos.

Pack your rig, put on some Ian Tyson, and head for the Eastern slopes of the Rockies. You won’t regret it. A person can still make a life here.

#22 Steven on 05.06.22 at 3:57 pm

Today the Fed’s Kashkari said the target rate is 2% to raise funds to for a”neutral” rate hike target.

That is 2 count them two more hikes. That’s IT. 2 MAYBE.

Inflation is over 8%. THEY DON”T CARE. Oil alone was up over 7% THIS week that influences EVERYTHING.

The FED is in a no win position they created and have made the choice to talk about inflation vs. really doing anything significant about it.

IF they were at all humane they would put the masses down vs death by a 1000 cuts through inflation.

#23 Steven on 05.06.22 at 4:02 pm

IF Central bankers DID try to fight inflation it would give people HOPE to return to work.

If there is no hope why bother? Live off your savings until you croak or spend it like it’s the end of the world which looks like many are doing. What do so many have to really lose? Nothing. And what happens when people have nothing left at all to lose? TROUBLE.

People are falling behind by the HOUR. Bless us ALL.

#24 Felix on 05.06.22 at 4:04 pm

Happy Feline Friday!

Did you know:

Cats love to sleep in laundry baskets, too, because they’re basically hiding places with peep holes.

Cats often attack your ankles when they’re bored.

Certain cats go crazy for foods you wouldn’t expect, like olives, potato chips, and the hops in beer.

For some reason, cats really dislike citrus scents.

If you can’t find your cat, you should look in a box or a bag, as these are some of their favorite hiding spots!

Male cats who try to get to a female in heat can show very bizarre behavior — for example, some have been known to slide down chimneys!

Many cats like to lick their owner’s freshly washed hair.

Some cats love the smell of chlorine.

#25 Dave B on 05.06.22 at 4:10 pm

DELETED (Anti-vaccine)

#26 Søren Angst on 05.06.22 at 4:11 pm

#3 Flop…

I take paper losses like a champion.

——————-

Not me. Especially with my Threadbare Portfolio.

+13.22% past 30 days (bite me)

At least one piece of sanity returned in the market today:

yeah oil

B&D (incl. Garth et. al. mantra) + High Yield Dividends = Keeping Head Above Water…

Unlike Cdn RE speculators (boo hoo).

yeah Kids

#27 Caffeine Monkey on 05.06.22 at 4:12 pm

“Non-prime” – Lol. I love the euphemism, but the correct term is subprime. SUBPRIME. Canada has a SUBPRIME lending problem. Acceptance is the first step to recovery, people.

#28 THE DANDADA on 05.06.22 at 4:18 pm

Well house across the street put up for 750K asking last week. Open house on Sunday, offer reviews on Wednesday.

Result —- ZERO OFFERS!!

“It’s Happening”

#29 Søren Angst on 05.06.22 at 4:20 pm

#5 bdwy

Typical BC.

Norse Gods of Valhalla in their forest primeval where Orca’s, Salmon, crystal clear anti-Mare Nostrum English Bay swimming water and Fir Trees will save them from:

Gravity

a.k.a., CB Rate Hikes

Heck, it saved them from Covid right?

Should work just fine against Gravity too.

—————

Or as Garth mused about #20 Tom’s comment:

Greater fools. Duh. – Garth

#30 rampant inflation on 05.06.22 at 4:22 pm

there is nothing confusing about the market.

it’s a bear market. it sells off. it can’t bounce. the SPX closed today at the lowest level in 12 months.

yesterday, on a day when the markets were down massive, 10 calls were bought for every 6 puts.
say that again…. 10 calls for every 6 puts.

there is NO fear in the market yet. NO CAPITULATION.

10 year yields continue their spike higher. NOBODY is buying bonds.

today’s statistics (not final)

Nasdaq : 24 new highs, 1079 new lows.
1172 advancers 3503 decliners

NYSE : 27 new highs, 610 new lows
1035 advancers, 2278 decliners

that’s not a healthy market. it’s going much lower. there needs to be more pain.

RBOB closed at the highest price ever. go fill up your honda civics for $100 next week. Crude oil has not sold off, what happens when it explodes higher as the supply shock finally sinks in? you can’t remove 10% of the worlds oil production and not replace it.

lets’ hope for a pop up next few weeks to establish more short positions.

#31 Tom from Mississauga on 05.06.22 at 4:24 pm

With inflation jumping to 8%ish in April the discount rate on taking CPP at 60 is irrelevant. Especially when payment gets indexed on Jan 1. The ocean of excess capital for CCPIB investment will disappear Jan 1 with it, permanently. For every other indexed plan on the planet as well. My macroeconomics course in 1999 was a lesson on how rapacious inflation is, let’s relearn!

#32 Quintilian on 05.06.22 at 4:27 pm

The craziness goes on.

A friend 31 yrs old, math teacher, pressured by her parents to “stop pouring money down the drain on rent”

Just purchased at SFU for 550k
-Preconstruction
-Less than 500 ft2
-99yr lease! Not even true ownership

This is got to be the top.

Hey Crowdie, I think this is in your area
I’m pretty sure that in 5 yrs, if you have any of your money left, you will be able to pick this up in the low 200’s

#33 Søren Angst on 05.06.22 at 4:33 pm

#21 T-Rev

Alberta born here.

Lay off the 420.

Travel more. Even BC is better. If you want to learn how to live, come to the land of

La Dolce Vita

e

Il Bel Far Niente

And, we have the odd tourist attraction, restaurant/coffee shop/ice cream parlour, beach where you don’t have to PLUG YOUR CAR IN LIKE A TOASTER (ICE or EV) in the Winter nor dress like the MICHELIN MAN for 8 months out of the year.

Oh and we have Mare Nostrum. You have Lake Wabamun and Chestermere Lake.

Oh, Chinook. Forgot about that. We have Scirocco. It’s from Africa not BC.

——————-

Enjoy. And keep telling yourself that. That’s what I did until I had a chance to get out of Dodge, literally.

#34 Steven on 05.06.22 at 4:38 pm

“The mess we’re seeing in the market is about liquidity,” explained Mohamed El-Erian.

“I’m willing to put my neck out and say we have mostly priced in interest rate risk.

We haven’t priced liquidity risk, we haven’t priced credit risk, we haven’t priced market functioning risk.

We are still in the process of pricing it.

The days of abundant and predictable liquidity are gone.”

S.O.S. All hands on deck….we have problems Captain.

#35 Froggy on 05.06.22 at 4:39 pm

Van is the most delusional area in the world no worries it’ll be hit harder than anywhere in Canada but a little later

#36 DON on 05.06.22 at 4:40 pm

‘Shopify President Appeals for Patience as Stock Gets Crushed’

Sounds like the pleas from owners in the dot com bust. ‘Everything is fine…please don’t crash the stock before I can sell all my shares’

#37 Joseph R. on 05.06.22 at 4:42 pm

#21 T-Rev on 05.06.22 at 3:51 pm

“And despite the CBCs attempts to paint us otherwise, the province is extremely diverse and welcoming to people of all background”

I sometimes watch CBC Calgary. Never heard anything saying Alberta is not welcoming of anyone.

Which CBC stations are saying that Alberta is not welcoming?

#38 HUNGRY BEAR on 05.06.22 at 4:47 pm

Roaring 20’s???

Someone care to tap me on the shoulder when this unfolds?

#39 Patel on 05.06.22 at 4:51 pm

6 webslibger
My mortgage is coming up for renewal and I am being offered a 4.29% fixed. How does that compare to other blog dogs?
________________

I got 5 year fixed at 4.04 from big bank and 3 year fixed at 3.8%.
I’m going with 3 year, I think this high rate cycle will end in 3 years.

What others think?

#40 crowdedelevatorfartz on 05.06.22 at 5:00 pm

@#32 Quintillans of quotes.
“Just purchased at SFU for 550k
-Preconstruction
-Less than 500 ft2
-99yr lease! Not even true ownership”

+++
A Math teacher that can’t understand compound interest debt …..on a 99 year LEASE???
My god.

Even at 200k in 5 years for 500 sq ft….
I’ll pass.

My 750 sq ft rental at $1200/month is still a “winner winner chicken dinner” kinda deal.

#41 Linda on 05.06.22 at 5:03 pm

Good heavens. That is one fur producing pup! Read that not a few folks are doing side gigs to prop up the family balance sheet. I’d suggest producing yarn from all the hair:) I actually own a scarf knitted from dog hair. Yes, still has a scent of dog. Also unbelievably warm.

So can anyone tell me how adding as much as 26% in additional taxes to the cost of a condo is going to ‘improve housing affordability’? I guess one can get around it by actually occupying the unit once it is built, then selling. After a year to avoid the tax for flipping, of course.

#42 crowdedelevatorfartz on 05.06.22 at 5:04 pm

@#19 Doug t

“Throw in the lack of physicians in this country – things are spiralling out of control”

+++

Apparently no one informed our Minister of Families that we have a doctor shortage……….

https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/canada-provide-abortion-access-american-women-1.6440238

#43 IHCTD9 on 05.06.22 at 5:05 pm

#114 Observer on 05.06.22 at 3:12 pm
#111 IHCTD9 on 05.06.22 at 2:33 pm

The problem with deliberately voting to restrict the freedoms of others, is you then risk your own freedoms.

^^^^^^^^^^^^^^
Says the guy who wants abortions to be “really hard to get”.
—-

Says the guy who wishes for a world free of abortion, but does not deny the right to those who feel differently.

Not making it easy does not = denying the freedom. I guess supporting it is not good enough? Do I need to drive them to the clinic, and pay for it too before you’re satisfied?

#44 Faron on 05.06.22 at 5:11 pm

#100 Sail Away on 05.06.22 at 11:24 am

Food for thought.

Would that be the kind of food that is made by literally telling Ponzi to put his retirement bux into a hyper concentrated, single-stock meat grinder that has dismally underperformed (by ~4% percent in a few days) SPX since your recco? Seems you owe him an apology.

All the more hypocritically shameful given you ‘never recommend stock purchases here’. Hard to believe anyone takes you seriously.

#45 Soviet Capitalist on 05.06.22 at 5:11 pm

By my observations, things are not as dramatic as one may conclude from this blog, but there is certainly an element of softening in the market. It seems to me that year-over-year, house prices will likely still be up in May, but not as much as in February.

This is a long process. Patience. – Garth

#46 UCC on 05.06.22 at 5:12 pm

#19 Doug t on 05.06.22 at 3:48 pm
Throw in the lack of physicians in this country – things are spiralling out of control.

Physicians are not the problem, nurses are. Physicians only diagnose, the real care comes from nurses . If you are need cancer treatments better make sure there are nurses. But they are leaving in droves. Ontario is a disaster.

https://globalnews.ca/news/8487144/canada-covid-nursing-shortage-alarm/

#47 MD on 05.06.22 at 5:19 pm

Bought my detached house in 2012 for 499k @ 3.09%, family income 130k, renewed it in [email protected] 2.69, renewed again this January @2.79 with current family income @150k watched all the drama of flippers, speculators and housing will never go down advisors. Kept my cool and never had FOMO or FOOP lol. Current market value of my house is 1.5 Mil. I touch my equity only when there is a emergency need for sudden expenses. Enjoying every sqft of my property stress free and investing wisely with whatever extra income I save. I just want to see how the housing market turns out at 5.5-6% fiver. My rough guess is a 30-35% plop from the feb highs. It will be good lesson for some for a lifetime of bad financial decision. It’s Friday and I am going to sit in my hot tub with a glass of wine :). Forgot to mention I bought my first townhouse @ 262k in 2007 for a 5.2% fiver :)

#48 AM in MN on 05.06.22 at 5:19 pm

Garth,

I still think you’re being fooled by the traditional views on inflation. Real growth and employment don’t cause it, money printing does.

Canada in particular is a special case because of its integration into the largest free market in the world, but with a separate currency (although some argue the BoC is a child the Fed tells what to do…)

Thus, it can choose to crank up its export economy in energy, minerals, agriculture, forest products etc., and thus raise the value of the C$ and lower inflation, due to the nominal price of most products being reflected in US$.

Until there’s a political change, this won’t happen as the virtue signalers pride themselves on killing off those industries as best they can and putting the boot to the smelly Walmart shoppers that work in them.

Choices, choices….

Of course more liquidity allows more borrowing which inflates prices. But this is just one factor of many, and not the immediate catalyst. The last thing we need is the complete politicization of the central bank, as PP is campaigning on. He is dead wrong. That would be dangerous beyond comprehension. – Garth

#49 Observer on 05.06.22 at 5:23 pm

#24 Felix on 05.06.22 at 4:04 pm
Happy Feline Friday!

Did you know:

Cats love to sleep in laundry baskets, too, because they’re basically hiding places with peep holes.

Cats often attack your ankles when they’re bored.

Certain cats go crazy for foods you wouldn’t expect, like olives, potato chips, and the hops in beer.

For some reason, cats really dislike citrus scents.

If you can’t find your cat, you should look in a box or a bag, as these are some of their favorite hiding spots!

Male cats who try to get to a female in heat can show very bizarre behavior — for example, some have been known to slide down chimneys!

Many cats like to lick their owner’s freshly washed hair.

Some cats love the smell of chlorine.

^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^

Oh Felix, why have you never mentioned this? Spoiled housecat that you are probably never tried it:

One particular skill that goes unnoticed (and certainly untested among house cats) is their incredibly efficient kidneys.

Not only can cats meet all their water needs simply from the water they extract from the bodies of the small animals they eat but, if necessary, they can rehydrate themselves by drinking salty sea water. While we’d hazard to guess that no cat prefers drinking sea water over a nice fresh bowl of clean spring water, the fact that they can do so without any harm is quite remarkable (as drinking sea water proves fatal for most mammals like humans, dogs, and so on).

https://www.mindbounce.com/trivia/which-of-these-domesticated-animals-can-safely-drink-sea-water/

#50 PeterfromCalgary on 05.06.22 at 5:24 pm

Central Banks can only do so much to fight inflation. It is time for governments to do their part and restrain spending. Unfortunately, with the NDLiberals in charge I do not think that will happen in Canada. However, depending on how the mid-term elections go we may see some spending restraint come from the US Congress and the Senate.

#51 IHCTD9 on 05.06.22 at 5:27 pm

#2 wallflower on 05.06.22 at 3:07 pm

The listings keep going uppa uppa in my small city southern Ontariowe.
————-

The local MLS consisted of 2 pages worth of listings in Feb. Right now it’s 15 pages.

#52 The Mule on 05.06.22 at 5:28 pm

On reaching Jerusalem, Jesus entered the temple courts and began driving out those who were buying and selling there. He overturned the benches of the money changers and the tables of those selling doves, and would not allow anyone to carry merchandise through the temple courts. And as he taught them, he said, “Is it not written: ‘My house will be called a house of prayer for all nations’ But you have made it ‘a den of robbers.

#53 Observer on 05.06.22 at 5:32 pm

Of course more liquidity allows more borrowing which inflates prices. But this is just one factor of many, and not the immediate catalyst. The last thing we need is the complete politicization of the central bank, as PP is campaigning on. He is dead wrong. That would be dangerous beyond comprehension. – Garth

^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^
He is truly a scary proposition as PM.

What’s up with all the tweets and speeches that he will make Canada free and give Canadians control over their lives?

All the while he remains silent regarding Canadians’ concerns that something similar might happen as in the US where half the population is about to lose their reproductive rights.

#54 Faron on 05.06.22 at 5:35 pm

Said it before because commenters asked about shorting RE. But, if anyone wants to, shorting XHB is an option. Can’t recall last time I mentioned it, but down she goes. Last ATH was around a local bottom in rates in Dec, ’21.

Not a recommendation, not B+D, will make your dog sad, #invitingGarthsWrath, DYODD etc.

#55 IHCTD9 on 05.06.22 at 5:38 pm

#104 Quintilian on 05.06.22 at 12:54 pm
Some unsolicited suggestions for Crowdie:

Stay invested in stocks, cash out, and buy real estate, or light a match to your money.

The result will be the same, but I suggest lighting a match to your money- quicker more efficient, and less painful.
—- ——

Fartz and most of us crustomudgeons here have been down this road before Quint. Burning all our cash would have been the wrong decision 4-5 times now over the last 25 years. It tends to come back, in a big way. Same likely to happen this time as well.

#56 Reality is stark on 05.06.22 at 5:40 pm

The good news is that the government knows where all the artificial wealth that they created is, it’s in your house, within the confines of the country.
They now can tax the wealth back through higher property taxes.
You are going to find out that no net wealth was actually created in the last 10 years.
This will come as quite a shock to a lot of people who were deluded into thinking that they would be able to retire at 65. Not unless you want to be poor.
Higher property values masked the fact that you are hundreds of miles behind an overpaid public service worker, and you will suffer to continue to pay his pension.
Matching public service pensions dollar for dollar contributed was the greatest travesty perpetrated on the Canadian taxpayer ever conceived.
10 years ago all matching should have been eradicated.
We couldn’t afford it. Doesn’t deficit spending tell the dingledorfs in government that they need to cut back?
What kind of stupid do we employ?
T2 and his cronies remind me of Chavez.
Selling us down the river.

#57 Brian on 05.06.22 at 5:42 pm

BANNED

#58 Shawn on 05.06.22 at 5:42 pm

CPP and Inflation

#31 Tom from Mississauga on 05.06.22 at 4:24 pm

With inflation jumping to 8%ish in April the discount rate on taking CPP at 60 is irrelevant. Especially when payment gets indexed on Jan 1. The ocean of excess capital for CCPIB investment will disappear Jan 1 with it, permanently. For every other indexed plan on the planet as well. My macroeconomics course in 1999 was a lesson on how rapacious inflation is, let’s relearn!

******************************
I think you have some great points here but I want to be sure I understand.

Once on CPP it it is fully indexed to official all-items inflation which you are assuming here is 8%.

So if a 60 year old takes now at a 36% discount they get say $640 versus the estimated $1000 if they wait till 65.

Sounds like a big haircut but they collect 60 months longer. In no way shape or form is that a return of 7.2% per year for waiting since that ignores the 60 extra months collected. In fact the return for waiting is best estimated as a complete wash. The higher future payments on average just offset the 60 extra payments. There will only be a return for waiting if you live longer than average. Wealthier people tend to live longer.

Anyhow the initial $640 here at age 60 would be indexed and rise with inflation.

Why does the 8% inflation make the discount for taking at 60 irrelevant? Is it because you expect the CPP initial payment to be received at 65 to not grow as fast as inflation?

If this person waited until 65 they would not actually get just the $1000 but that would have also grown with inflation.

Can the maximum CPP payment be expected to grow as fast as CPI inflation in the next five years or should it be expected to grow faster or slower?

And to confirm, you expect CPP Investment Board to have less money to invest because they will be faced with the fat 8% increase to everyone’s CPP? Their investment returns and the contributions will not keep up?

#59 cuke and tomato picker on 05.06.22 at 5:49 pm

Number 32 Quintilian interesting we have a 15 year old
grandson who is our pride and joy. He is our only
grandchild and we call him the chairman of the board in our family. He goes to a private school in Vancouver. He excels in math. He is in grade 9 and just before Easter he volunteered to write a math test to qualify for a test to be done today at Capilano University. He got the top mark in grade 9 and is writing the test today. We shall
see how he does against the others from various schools in Vancouver. He is also the engineer in the grade 9 robotics club he say robots are easy to build
but coding them is difficult.

#60 TurnerNation on 05.06.22 at 5:49 pm

Which analogy is in play for todays weblog? Is the market shedding or is it getting hairy?
I did not know our forum host uses a grooming rake. Such hirsuteness. :-)

— Control over travel. IMO they are stringing us along till Digital ID is ready.
Want to fly? Dozens of pages of rules — mid 2022. SO close to 2019 normalcy?

https://tc.canada.ca/en/ministerial-orders-interim-orders-directives-directions-response-letters/interim-order-respecting-certain-requirements-civil-aviation-due-covid-19-no-62

— Control over our feeding.
This one just an internet rumor but…

[email protected] I have a friend who lives near Hickory NC, he owns a farm, raising chickens for a major company. He says he’s conflicted: he’s being told to destroy the chickens, no reason given. But he’s not losing money; in fact he’s getting paid almost double to comply.

.Baby formula shortage hits ‘crisis’ level, sparking panic in parents across US (foxbusiness.com)

#61 Travel Agent on 05.06.22 at 5:57 pm

Lockdowns over! We can’t come up with any more excuses to keep people locked up, so how can we lock people up again?

Make gas expensive and airport lines painful and stressful. Make travel for the richer classes only. Get these poor folks off the road and out of the lineups.

Done!

Now they’ll only go as far a their bicycles will take them.

#62 Nothing Surprises on 05.06.22 at 6:04 pm

As Garth outlines the world is not in the best of shape.

Add the fact that the bee population in Ontario has dropped 40% and in all probability the decline will be the same across Canada, perhaps our number one concern will be what are we going to eat?

#63 handsome ned on 05.06.22 at 6:09 pm

I remember well, Trudeau Sr. wage and price controls. Our union walked out Oct. 16, 1976. We were supposed to go to a rally but instead 4 of us went fishing on the Squamish river. We limited out on prime 12 to 18 pound coho salmon. Thirty pounds of salmon was worth more than a days wages.

#64 Balanced portfolio on 05.06.22 at 6:09 pm

How we doing, anybody in the black :)

Powell has pulled the plug. Sorry

#65 Doug t on 05.06.22 at 6:10 pm

#42 fartz

Apparently no one informed our Minister of Families that we have a doctor shortage……….

DOH !!!!!

#66 NOSTRADAMUS on 05.06.22 at 6:16 pm

TALKING TO A FRIENDLY REALTOR.
Yes, there is the odd friendly realtor way up north in God’s back yard, the (Kawartha Lakes). House sales have stopped, as in a dead man’s stop. Apparently for the past 2 years all the recent buying activity revolved around the GTA buyers moving into the area. With the collapse of the GTA residential market, these potential buyers have dried up. The problem now facing the local realtors , the local buyers can no longer afford to purchase at today’s current price. A ton of listings are now flooding the market with yesterday’s asking prices. MMMM— What’s a starving realtor to do??? Hold on, someone at the door.

#67 Observer on 05.06.22 at 6:31 pm

43 IHCTD9 on 05.06.22 at 5:05 pm
#114 Observer on 05.06.22 at 3:12 pm
#111 IHCTD9 on 05.06.22 at 2:33 pm

The problem with deliberately voting to restrict the freedoms of others, is you then risk your own freedoms.

^^^^^^^^^^^^^^
Says the guy who wants abortions to be “really hard to get”.
—-

Says the guy who wishes for a world free of abortion, but does not deny the right to those who feel differently.

Not making it easy does not = denying the freedom. I guess supporting it is not good enough? Do I need to drive them to the clinic, and pay for it too before you’re satisfied?

^^^^^^^^^^^^^^
Making accessibility to abortions “really hard” or “not making it easy”, as you prefer, means that someone will need to drive to the clinic or somewhere else to get it done (safe or not). Laws against abortion don’t stop them from happening.

Most abortions are not what you imagine. They happen early and are induced by drugs and not in a clinic. Making abortion illegal not only makes clinics go away, but makes supplying and prescribing these drugs, illegal, and the women who use them, criminals.

The issue is not about women being “satisfied” as you put it.

It’s about keeping your opinions and religious beliefs to yourself and allowing women to make the best choices for themselves (they know themselves and their situations best) and to have modern medical options available as opposed to being illegal and criminalizing women.

#68 Sail Away on 05.06.22 at 6:33 pm

#44 Faron on 05.06.22 at 5:11 pm
#100 Sail Away on 05.06.22 at 11:24 am

Food for thought.

——–

Would that be the kind of food that is made by literally telling Ponzi to put his retirement bux into a hyper concentrated, single-stock meat grinder that has dismally underperformed (by ~4% percent in a few days) SPX since your recco? Seems you owe him an apology.

All the more hypocritically shameful given you ‘never recommend stock purchases here’. Hard to believe anyone takes you seriously.

——–

Much like my dogs, your obsession with me is quite breathtaking.

Stay out of the rhodos, though. My wife said you left a mess out there during your last stalking excursion.

#69 Shirl Clarts on 05.06.22 at 6:38 pm

Was planning a trip across the border and noticed this little gem…

Arrival tests
Upon your entry to Canada by air or at a land border crossing, the border services officer may notify you that you’ve been randomly selected for a mandatory arrival test.

Fully vaccinated travellers are not exempt from mandatory randomized arrival testing.

Requirements for children aged 5 to 11 accompanying fully vaccinated parents (and other eligible adults):

– unvaccinated or partially vaccinated children must be tested if their accompanying parent is selected for mandatory randomized testing
– children who qualify as fully vaccinated are not required to be tested if their accompanying parent is selected for mandatory randomized testing
– children who qualify as fully vaccinated must be tested if they are selected for mandatory randomized testing

Do the above 3 bullets make any sense at all?

Also, unvaccinated children aged 5-11 need to wear a mask in public settings (including schools and day camps) for 14 days after arrival to Canada.

Not to mention the ArriveCan app is mandatory – there’s 30 minutes of your life, downloading, uploading, trip planning. Waste of time.

The above non-sense killed our trip, EVEN THOUGH WE ARE BOTH FULLY VACCINATED ADULTS!!

Sad to think the goofs that came up with these rules are fully-pensioned by me… the taxpayer.

Even though Fauci declared we are in “post-pandemic” territory, here in Canada we are still jumping through hoops.

https://travel.gc.ca/travel-covid/travel-restrictions/covid-vaccinated-travellers-entering-canada

I get those truckers now.

Americans dead from Covid: 1,000,000. – Garth

#70 Ed on 05.06.22 at 6:40 pm

I really enjoyed the PC debate last night.

I won’t mention who I thought won, but Garth’s least favourite candidate was in pretty good form.

#71 Sail Away on 05.06.22 at 6:41 pm

Trevor Noah is a truly great comedian. Check out his set at the White House correspondent’s dinner:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QqfnHU9i38E

#72 Barb on 05.06.22 at 6:41 pm

“…plus the anti-non-resident tax nuttiness in NS…”

Thought NS recently reversed their decision on this.

The big new anti-Ontario tax for purchases remains. – Garth

#73 Observer on 05.06.22 at 6:50 pm

#57 Brian on 05.06.22 at 5:42 pm
BANNED

^^^^^^^^^^^^

LOL. Why do you bother?

#74 jess on 05.06.22 at 6:58 pm

Failure to amend law in reaction to Credit Suisse investigation dashes hopes for fast-track route to greater press freedom

A notorious law known as article 47 makes it a criminal offence to disclose information about a bank’s clients, even if it is in the public interest. It means whistleblowers and journalists who report on potential wrongdoing can be prosecuted.

The subcommittee was reviewing the law in reaction to the Suisse secrets investigation into Switzerland’s second largest bank, Credit Suisse. The leak, which included data for 30,000 clients, revealed that the bank held accounts for individuals involved in torture, drug trafficking, money laundering, corruption, and other serious crimes, over decades.

Switzerland’s extreme banking secrecy laws meant that journalists who took part in the investigation risked potential fines or even imprisonment. Swiss media could not take part as a result.

The leak points to widespread failures of due diligence by Credit Suisse, despite repeated pledges over decades to weed out dubious clients and illicit funds. The Guardian is part of a consortium of media outlets given exclusive access to the data.

https://www.icij.org/investigations/swiss-leaks/explore-swiss-leaks-data/
=============
Lawmakers in US push to uncover riches shielded by state secrecy laws

where would one be without these leaks ?
https://www.icij.org/

Pandora Papers Russia, marks the latest effort by ICIJ to shine light into one of the world’s most secretive industries — and follows a decade of reporting on Russian offshore maneuvering in particular. For ease of access, ICIJ has compiled much of that prior reporting in a dedicated page called the Russia Archive.

#75 Faron on 05.06.22 at 7:04 pm

#60 TurnerNation on 05.06.22 at 5:49 pm

Yeah, travel restrictions are real tough these days. A real prison. I had to Wait. In. Line. To board the ferry a couple weeks ago. And taking the Amtrak across the border required me to show a valid passport! How dare they?!

And driving to Utah we even had to kinda observe! The! Speed limit! In four states! Can you believe that? And the worst part??? When we got there the mormons were incredibly friendly and competent and service oriented. Oh, and get this, our backpacking permit was $5 dollars. Five! Government tyrrany is what that is! And camping along the way we had to drive bumpy dirt roads. BUMPY! And gather our own firewood. And pay $0 + gas. The new system is HORRIBLE.

Hell in a handbasket I tells ya.

#76 Old Boot on 05.06.22 at 7:04 pm

Nova Scotia canceled the non-resident tax.

https://halifax.citynews.ca/nova-scotia-news/nova-scotia-scraps-non-resident-property-tax-to-protect-provinces-reputation-5334315#:~:text=HALIFAX%20%E2%80%94%20Nova%20Scotia%20Premier%20Tim,risked%20hurting%20the%20province's%20reputation.

Only partially. The new non-resident transfer tax, which is huge, remains. – Garth

#77 crowdedelevatorfartz on 05.06.22 at 7:13 pm

@#44 Faron
“Hard to believe anyone takes you seriously.”
+++
Odd.
You seem to take everything Sailio says as seriously as a heart attack.

@#55 IHCTD9
“Fartz and most of us crustomudgeons here have been down this road before Quint”

+++

Yep.
I remember the the Gas Shortage and “rationing” of the 1970’s, the recession in the 80, the slow economy of the 90’s…..

Gas is $2.13.9 for regular in Burnaby this afternoon
Supreme Plus was $2.49.9
:0

#78 crowdedelevatorfartz on 05.06.22 at 7:15 pm

@#67 Observer
“LOL. Why do you bother?

+++
Garth said “BANNED”
Not “SMART”

#79 pPrasseur on 05.06.22 at 7:34 pm

US M2 excess has enough potential to feed 10% inflation for the next 3 years.

https://scottgrannis.blogspot.com/2022/05/m2-still-has-lot-of-inflation-potential.html

Debt ridden Canada probably worse, will be tested.

#80 VladTor on 05.06.22 at 7:37 pm

Garth…
In the States, another 428,000 jobs last month.

*************
The US economy created in April 2022. 428 thousand new jobs (expectations 380 thousand).

Unemployment – 3.6% (unchanged)

The total number of employed is still 1.2 million lower than before the outbreak.

Interesting is that if you are not on welfare and have long ceased to look for work, then you are not considered unemployed. You are no longer in the economically active population – you do not participate in the calculation of the unemployment rate .

And it seems that you will be removed from the allowance in a year or less. And if you have not found a job during this period, then it is considered that you are not looking for it.

US stats….I don’t trust it because it is the most best statistic of the among other best statistics in the world.

#81 Ustabe on 05.06.22 at 7:44 pm

Observer: … Making abortion illegal not only makes clinics go away, but makes supplying and prescribing these drugs, illegal, and the women who use them, criminals.

The morning after pill/abortion pill is available from Amazon, has a long, long shelf life and would be near untraceable if sent to an Amazon drop box pick up like RV-ers use.

#82 Anne Murray Impostor on 05.06.22 at 7:45 pm

Let it be
Let it be
Let it beeee
Let it be
Let the prices collapse
Let it be

#83 IHCTD9 on 05.06.22 at 7:47 pm

#67 Observer on 05.06.22 at 6:31 pm
43 IHCTD9 on 05.06.22 at 5:05 pm
#114 Observer on 05.06.22 at 3:12 pm
#111 IHCTD9 on 05.06.22 at 2:33 pm

The problem with deliberately voting to restrict the freedoms of others, is you then risk your own freedoms.

^^^^^^^^^^^^^^
Says the guy who wants abortions to be “really hard to get”.
—-

Says the guy who wishes for a world free of abortion, but does not deny the right to those who feel differently.

Not making it easy does not = denying the freedom. I guess supporting it is not good enough? Do I need to drive them to the clinic, and pay for it too before you’re satisfied?

^^^^^^^^^^^^^^
Making accessibility to abortions “really hard” or “not making it easy”, as you prefer, means that someone will need to drive to the clinic or somewhere else to get it done (safe or not). Laws against abortion don’t stop them from happening.

Most abortions are not what you imagine. They happen early and are induced by drugs and not in a clinic. Making abortion illegal not only makes clinics go away, but makes supplying and prescribing these drugs, illegal, and the women who use them, criminals.

The issue is not about women being “satisfied” as you put it.

**[I was talking about YOU specifically, not Women in general – IH]**

It’s about keeping your opinions and religious beliefs to yourself and allowing women to make the best choices for themselves (they know themselves and their situations best) and to have modern medical options available as opposed to being illegal and criminalizing women
————

I am one of very few of my demographic who put the kind of society they would like to live in ahead of my personal morality. That means I AM in fact keeping my opinion and creed to myself, and supporting abortion rights. You asked, I answered. But now, it’s still not good enough. You want more.

If my positive stance and support is not in and of itself sufficient, just say so. You’re not doing your cause much good. You’re never going to change anyone’s mind on an issue like this, and if you actually manage to get a bird in the hand from a guy who thinks exactly the opposite of you, you’d best take it and run rather than play games with it. It might escape right back into the bush.

#84 Ronaldo on 05.06.22 at 7:56 pm

#14 T Dog on 05.06.22 at 3:31 pm
What are the chances our B&D’s revert to where they were in Jan 2022 by EoY?
—————————————————————-
Well, since we are back to January of 2021 that would be the best you could hope for imho. The bleeding is not over yet.

#85 AM in MN on 05.06.22 at 7:57 pm

DELETED (libel)

#86 Frank on 05.06.22 at 8:11 pm

I feel blessed to be in Montreal, strong diversified economy, low unemployment and condos around downtown are still around 4-600$ a sq.ft, detached in the suburbs can still be bought for under 500k, 200k more than 2 years ago but still. No fear of life shattering correction.

#87 IHCTD9 on 05.06.22 at 8:20 pm

#59 cuke and tomato picker on 05.06.22 at 5:49 pm
Number 32 Quintilian interesting we have a 15 year old
grandson who is our pride and joy. He is our only
grandchild and we call him the chairman of the board in our family. He goes to a private school in Vancouver. He excels in math. He is in grade 9 and just before Easter he volunteered to write a math test to qualify for a test to be done today at Capilano University. He got the top mark in grade 9 and is writing the test today. We shall
see how he does against the others from various schools in Vancouver. He is also the engineer in the grade 9 robotics club he say robots are easy to build
but coding them is difficult.
——-

Sounds similar to the “Gauss Mathematics Contests” held here in Ontario by U of Waterloo. Both my boys are Math whizzes also, both are taking Computer Science in Uni. First year is pretty much all Math. Might be a good career path for him, pay’s great too!

#88 jess on 05.06.22 at 8:21 pm

https://www.reuters.com/business/us-sec-levies-39-bln-fines-fiscal-2021-2021-11-18/

U.S. Fines Billions for Wall Street Fraud. Nearly Half the Time It Doesn’t Collect.
SEC collected just 55% of the $20 billion levied for securities cases in last five years

why not?

…”The SEC’s challenge is that, like companies that are owed money, it doesn’t have the right to seize a debtor’s property or assets to extract payment. Instead, it relies on a time-consuming and litigious process of filing liens against defendants or going to court to seek contempt orders, said Brad Bennett, a former enforcement director at the Financial Industry Regulatory Authority, which polices the brokerage industry.

=======

The SEC fee applies to the sale of stocks, but bonds and other debt instruments are never subject to this fee.

The SEC fee is a small fee that exchanges and broker-dealers must pay the U.S. Treasury, to help offset the governmental costs associated with regulating the equities market. Most of the SEC fees are shouldered by broker-dealers, who, in turn, may pass the costs along to investors.

fiscal year 2022 the fees that public companies and other issuers pay to register their securities with the Commission will be set at $92.70 per million dollars.
https://www.sec.gov/news/press-release/2021-160
Washington D.C., May 3, 2022 —

The Securities and Exchange Commission today announced the allocation of 20 additional positions to the unit responsible for protecting investors in crypto markets and from cyber-related threats. The newly renamed Crypto Assets and Cyber Unit (formerly known as the Cyber Unit) in the Division of Enforcement will grow to 50 dedicated positions.

“The U.S. has the greatest capital markets because investors have faith in them, and as more investors access the crypto markets, it is increasingly important to dedicate more resources to protecting them,” said SEC Chair Gary Gensler.

“The Division of Enforcement’s Crypto Assets and Cyber Unit has successfully brought dozens of cases against those seeking to take advantage of investors in crypto markets. By nearly doubling the size of this key unit, the SEC will be better equipped to police wrongdoing in the crypto markets while continuing to identify disclosure and controls issues with respect to cybersecurity.”

https://www.sec.gov/news/press-release/2022-79

https://www.reuters.com/business/jpmorgan-securities-pay-125-mln-settle-sec-charges-record-keeping-lapses-2021-12-17/

The SEC has contacted several financial institutions to check whether employees’ work-related communications such as messages and emails, particularly on personal devices, have been properly documented.

The industry-wide regulatory scrutiny comes at a time when companies have struggled with keeping track of staff communications in the work-from-home pandemic era.

#89 Quintilian on 05.06.22 at 8:33 pm

#55 IHCTD9 on 05.06.22 at 5:38 pm
#77 crowdedelevatorfartz on 05.06.22 at 7:13 pm

“Fartz and most of us crustomudgeons here have been down this road before Quint. Burning all our cash would have been the wrong decision 4-5 times now over the last 25 years. It tends to come back, in a big way. Same likely to happen this time as well.”

Aside from all the bantering, I do wish both of you good returns.
I think where we differ is in the relying on the past for reference, and I understand.

But much has changed from your time. Never before have the consumers, governments, and Central Bankers stretched their limits to this extent.

New world but maybe not so new.
Money will be the king again, that is my bet. (with a slight hedge in case I am wrong.)

#90 Cow Man on 05.06.22 at 8:33 pm

anti-non-resident tax nuttiness in NS

This was rescinded by NS Premier Wednesday

Only half of it. – Garth

#91 Steve French on 05.06.22 at 8:50 pm

So I opened my trading account… and threw up a little in my mouth…

SteveO

#92 Meh on 05.06.22 at 9:05 pm

#86 Frank on 05.06.22 at 8:11 pm
I feel blessed to be in Montreal, strong diversified economy, low unemployment and condos around downtown are still around 4-600$ a sq.ft, detached in the suburbs can still be bought for under 500k, 200k more than 2 years ago but still. No fear of life shattering correction.

__________________________

The potholes and crumbling infrastructure is free too!

#93 Faron on 05.06.22 at 9:07 pm

#77 crowdedelevatorfartz on 05.06.22 at 7:13 pm

Well, I love a clown show for one. You should know that given my responses to you as well.

And, well, Sail Away telling others what stocks to buy is demonstrably harmful given his lack of risk management and numerous very poor, concentrated positions. Especially given the B+D subject matter this blog is aimed at.

A lot goes on here with very little real impact. Yet, if Ponz listened to Sail Away the other day and plunked down any real cash he would be hurting relative to less crappy investments.

He’s reverting, hypocritically, to an ad hominem and lowering the tone to character debasement to dodge the fact that he continuously violates his own stringent standards and is a living, breathing example of the well known “everyone is a genius in a bull market”.

In short, I take Sail Away as serious as one should any multicellular pathogen. It’s prudent for any new readers to know that his reccos are garbage.

#94 Adam on 05.06.22 at 9:13 pm

Alberta is basically the exact opposite of the rest of the country. Outlook is very positive. No anti-resident taxes, no HST, no land transfer taxes. I moved here from BC and never looked back. I used to think anyone who lived in Alberta was an idiot and now I feel like the idiot for thinking that way for so many years. Don’t listen to people who tell you that Alberta is a frozen convervative hell-hole – it’s not true. Edmonton gets more sunshine than Vancouver and is beautiful. It’s also very far from being conservative. The city itself is very progressive, and MORE diverse than Vancouver (believe it or not?). One of the amazing things about Edmonton and Calgary is the diversity. Edmonton has the 2nd highest concentration of Ukrainians. Lots of them will be headed here to recover from the war in Russia and we will welcome them with open arms as they build new lives here. The outlook is indeed bright in Alberta – come on over and make your home here!

#95 baloney Sandwitch on 05.06.22 at 9:19 pm

The subprime lenders are getting decimated. They might go under.
https://userupload.gurufocus.com/1522747249770176512.png

#96 When Will They Raise Rates? on 05.06.22 at 9:20 pm

#53 Observer on 05.06.22 at 5:32 pm

Of course more liquidity allows more borrowing which inflates prices. But this is just one factor of many, and not the immediate catalyst. The last thing we need is the complete politicization of the central bank, as PP is campaigning on. He is dead wrong. That would be dangerous beyond comprehension. – Garth

^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^
He is truly a scary proposition as PM.

What’s up with all the tweets and speeches that he will make Canada free and give Canadians control over their lives?

—————–

OMG the horror!

#97 Faron on 05.06.22 at 9:23 pm

#68 Sail Away on 05.06.22 at 6:33 pm

Stay out of the rhodos, though. My wife said you left a mess out there during your last stalking excursion.

Oh, she told you. Well, the rhodos were her idea, so I can’t help that. An April tryst was the perfect send-off for my trip to the deserts of Utah. If it helps, she told me she felt guilty for it and that your money will heal the rend in her heart. The wrapper was my bad. Sorry.

#98 Ponzius Pilatus on 05.06.22 at 10:00 pm

#65 Doug t on 05.06.22 at 6:10 pm
#42 fartz

Apparently no one informed our Minister of Families that we have a doctor shortage……….

DOH !!!!!
—————-
No doctor shortage.
Just too many sick people.
Apparently, 1 out of 3 construction workers is sick or dying from drug overdosing.

#99 Sail Away on 05.06.22 at 10:08 pm

#97 Faron on 05.06.22 at 9:23 pm
#68 Sail Away on 05.06.22 at 6:33 pm

Stay out of the rhodos, though. My wife said you left a mess out there during your last stalking excursion.

———

Oh, she told you. Well, the rhodos were her idea, so I can’t help that. An April tryst was the perfect send-off for my trip to the deserts of Utah. If it helps, she told me she felt guilty for it and that your money will heal the rend in her heart. The wrapper was my bad. Sorry.

———

Very highbrow. Bravo. I showed it to my wife and she asked who the idiot is. Turns out she knows you from her position in the Ministry.

Awkward.

#100 cuke and tomato picker on 05.06.22 at 10:12 pm

IHCDT9 yes my grandson also does the Waterloo
Scholastic since grade 8 and this year in grade 9 he did grades 9 and 10 math and in grade 10 he will take grades
11 and 12 math and in grade 12 he will do first year
university in a class of 17 selected students. He is also
the top science student in grade 9.

#101 crowdedelevatorfartz on 05.06.22 at 10:17 pm

@#89 Quintillian
“But much has changed from your time. ”

+++
Yes.
I’m older, wiser and richer than I was when I was 30 something and thought I knew everything….

@ faron
” I take Sail Away as serious as one should any multicellular pathogen.”
++++

So…. long winded story short.
You take him seriously.

#102 Faron on 05.06.22 at 10:28 pm

#69 Shirl Clarts on 05.06.22 at 6:38 pm

…Not to mention the ArriveCan app…

I have to do this tomorrow. I don’t know how to ask this. I’m kinda embarrassed, but… Will you hold me Shirl? Comfort me as I board this bureaucratic hell train? Stroke me for each of the 10 agonizing minutes it will take so that I may travel across the longest, most peaceful international boarder separating economic powerhouses with naught else but a friendly “welcome home” from the CBSA? Alack.

#103 Dragonslayer on 05.06.22 at 10:40 pm

#40 crowdedelevatorfartz

@#32 Quintillans of quotes.
“Just purchased at SFU for 550k
-Preconstruction
-Less than 500 ft2
-99yr lease! Not even true ownership”

+++
A Math teacher that can’t understand compound interest debt …..on a 99 year LEASE???
My god.

Even at 200k in 5 years for 500 sq ft….
I’ll pass.

My 750 sq ft rental at $1200/month is still a “winner winner chicken dinner” kinda deal.
—————————————————–
I think the 99 year lease refers to the land and common property. The mortgage wouldn’t be 99 years. You’d pay off the condo like any other but in 99 years the land/ buildings revert to the original owner.

As the 99 year mark approaches, the value of the condo will drop precipitously, down to zero in theory, as D day looms.

Not that any of us will have to worry about that though.

#104 IHCTD9 on 05.06.22 at 10:42 pm

#89 Quintilian on 05.06.22 at 8:33 pm
#55 IHCTD9 on 05.06.22 at 5:38 pm
#77 crowdedelevatorfartz on 05.06.22 at 7:13 pm

“Fartz and most of us crustomudgeons here have been down this road before Quint. Burning all our cash would have been the wrong decision 4-5 times now over the last 25 years. It tends to come back, in a big way. Same likely to happen this time as well.”

Aside from all the bantering, I do wish both of you good returns.
I think where we differ is in the relying on the past for reference, and I understand.

But much has changed from your time. Never before have the consumers, governments, and Central Bankers stretched their limits to this extent.

New world but maybe not so new.
Money will be the king again, that is my bet. (with a slight hedge in case I am wrong.)
———

Thanks, Fartz and I will be fine. We’re all going to get shook down for a while, that is for sure. I agree things have got pretty extreme this time around. I guess we’ll see how the cookie crumbles…

#105 KaleyCat on 05.06.22 at 11:31 pm

#94 Adam

Add this to your list

https://bc.ctvnews.ca/hundreds-of-family-doctors-accepting-new-patients-in-alberta-as-nearly-a-million-british-columbians-without-1.5888738

#106 margarinecallz on 05.06.22 at 11:34 pm

Garth,

At what point do you recommend jumping into bitcoin. I was thinking when it hits $21, but I see a massive margin call sitting there? What say you?

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/bitcoin-margin-call-world-leading-211214653.html

It is so slippery I butter call this a margarine call.

#107 Bigchill on 05.06.22 at 11:43 pm

If no one noticed yet the dollar is getting pulverized taxation of inflation is really the only option the rule makers are taking seriously, can’t buy a house in stoon unless you offer over list, central bank soaking up loans on their balance sheet, can’t see how prices are gonna crash even though they should have a long time ago….

#108 Shirl Clarts on 05.06.22 at 11:50 pm

#102 Faron on 05.06.22 at 10:28 pm

#69 Shirl Clarts on 05.06.22 at 6:38 pm

…Not to mention the ArriveCan app…

^^^^^^^^^^^
I thought the 3 bullets of different combinations of testing requirements was amusing…. singling out some based on what… EVERYONE IN THE CAR IS BREATHING THE SAME AIR!

Good luck, Faron. I hope you escape the test. If not, the friendly CBSA agent is sending you back to the States to get a test. Don’t take it personal… it’s random.

#109 Barb on 05.06.22 at 11:53 pm

#69 Shirl…
“Not to mention the ArriveCan app is mandatory – there’s 30 minutes of your life, downloading, uploading, trip planning. Waste of time.”

——————-
Mine took all of 5 minutes.

The ArriveCAN app “bugs” (evident November / 21 when land borders reopened) have been fixed.

#110 Faron on 05.07.22 at 12:51 am

#99 Sail Away on 05.06.22 at 10:08 pm

Aw, I thought a military guy would have liked a good wife joke/ribbing. That’s what Sebastian Junger told me in “War”. I will say it approached BillyBob levels tho.

Highbrow part is interestig from a dude who called me a stalker who doo dooed in their bushes and has made seemingly well-informed references to syphillic maladies… A stunning amount of hypocrisy just oozes out of your obsession with this blog’s comments (see previous sentence).

Given that, are you sure you aren’t the idiot she’s referring to there C.? Glad to sink to your level regardless once you set it. If you bothered to set it high, I could step over it without spilling my morning joe.

Have fun with the dossier.
Cheers.

#111 When Will They Raise Rates? on 05.07.22 at 12:55 am

The last thing we need is the complete politicization of the central bank, as PP is campaigning on. He is dead wrong. That would be dangerous beyond comprehension. – Garth

If the BoC plans to implement a new digital currency, Canadians should have a say, should we not?

A third can’t pay monthly bills. Now you want them to design a currency? – Garth

#112 bdwy on 05.07.22 at 1:30 am

I get those truckers now.

Americans dead from Covid: 1,000,000. – Garth

———————

thankfully we don’t count people who died while they had a cold.

the farce at the border is now only a silly charade.

shirl, you can go no problem. i’ve crossed 6 or 7 times in the last month no issues at all, just declare your booze and smokes!

I did get picked for a random test flying uk to toronto back in the fall , it took about 5 min.

cars seem to be flying thru the land crossings as normal, i suspect no random testing is happening at the bc crossings.

arrive can has been slashed to just 4 questions. (name/date/phone#)only ONE health related, basically “do you feel ok?” then come on in. i did it in the line up yesterday – maybe 45 seconds. last week i forgot and the guard at the booth let me do it on the spot. it’s a total joke.

the americans don’t care one iota nor do they ask.

#113 millmech on 05.07.22 at 1:47 am

I see two house in the one market I am watching relisted as brand new on the market for 15% less for one and 10% lower for the other.
Another market that had few listings and none under 500k now has close to 100 listings and multiple houses under 500k and even a few under 400k, all in two weeks.

#114 Dr V on 05.07.22 at 2:03 am

59 & 100 cuke

Thanks for contributing such interesting and relevant information to todays blog.

Do you have any comments on gas prices, abortion law,
real estate, investments, healthcare or maybe the
crappy weather we’ve been having this spring?

#115 MDQ on 05.07.22 at 2:17 am

I still see houses on the west side of Vancouver going for higher prices than asks… are these folks not getting the memo?

Why would folks offer more money in this market?

#116 Jane24 on 05.07.22 at 2:53 am

Actually on 99 year leases the value of the condo is compromised when it reaches only 80 years left. Hard to get a mortgage then. The only way out is to negotiate with whoever third party actually owns the building for more lease years and pay this piper whatever they want to solve your problem. I am surprised that the teacher’s lawyer let her sign this. A terrible investment.

#117 Tinpot⁷ Economist on 05.07.22 at 4:35 am

Of course more liquidity allows more borrowing which inflates prices. But this is just one factor of many, and not the immediate catalyst. The last thing we need is the complete politicization of the central bank, as PP is campaigning on. He is dead wrong. That would be dangerous beyond comprehension. – Garth

Well said Garth, PP reminds me of Rand Paul the American politician who is a Fed Conspiracy therorist. CB monetary policy must always be independent of government. If the Cons are smart, they will run away from this guy as fast as they can.

#118 Kiril on 05.07.22 at 6:07 am

Ottawa Real Estate Market Summary:

The Ottawa real estate market experienced a noticeable slowdown in April 2022. While still a sellers’ market, prices have given back 2-3% from the March 2022 record highs.

Detached homes gained 11.7% from a year ago. They were down about $30,000 on a month to month basis.

Townhomes were up 13.6% compared to a year ago and lost about $25,000 on a month to month basis.

Condos gained about 11% compared to a year ago and were down about $6,000 on a month to month basis.

Average days on market was 10, but I also saw a lot more cancelled and expired listings. This happens when sellers’ do not get the price they anticipated after listing and choose to wait rather than accept a lower than expected sale price.

Full details available via the link below:
https://www.kirilpeev.ca/ottawa-real-estate-update-april-2022/

#119 mj on 05.07.22 at 8:03 am

Hi Garth, off topic. I watched the conservative debate. All candidates looked horrible except Pierre. I can’t see anyone else beating Justin.

#120 Dharma Bum on 05.07.22 at 9:41 am

#75 Faron

Hell in a handbasket I tells ya.
——————————————————————————————————-

I hear ya brother!

Especially the torture of having to conform to the speed limit in Utah.

Cruising along the interstate on the Harley in Utah at 80 MPH (130 km/h) was agonizing.

I don’t know if I can take this sort of tyrannical abuse.

#121 Dharma Bum on 05.07.22 at 10:00 am

#94 Adam

Alberta is basically the exact opposite of the rest of the country. Outlook is very positive.
—————————————————————————————————–

Alberta.

One of the “best kept secrets”.

Especially from Toronto idiots (a city of pathetic posers, wannabes, FOMO artists, narcissists, fakers, climbers, elitists, phoneys, yuppies, house-horny moisters, show-offs, basement dwellers, Leaf fans, gangbangers, meatballs, pseudoenvironmentalists, crappy restaurants, bad transit, lefties, dippers, wokesters, empty suits, and John Tory).

As I’ve mentioned here before, I’ve always loved Alberta, but mostly for its obvious attributes (the most beautiful province in Canada with the glorious Rocky Mountains and world class skiing), but ever since one of my kids moved there, and I’ve been visiting regularly for 3-4 weeks at a crack, I now really appreciate the advantages of living there.

Great people. Great amenities. Beautiful landscapes. Great culture. Much lower cost of housing (HUGE bang for your buck). No provincial gouge tax. Rodeos. Taber corn.

Young people would do much better for themselves if they stopped the stupidity of thinking that Toronto is the centre of the universe, and that it’s a privilege to live there.

It’s a cesspool that they’re drowning in – financially, culturally, and literally.

Go WEST young people (and leave your stupid misguided wokeness where you came from).

Alberta rocks.

#122 Dave B on 05.07.22 at 10:00 am

DELETED (Anti-vaccine)

#123 Observer on 05.07.22 at 10:10 am

#96 When Will They Raise Rates? on 05.06.22 at 9:20 pm
#53 Observer on 05.06.22 at 5:32 pm

Of course more liquidity allows more borrowing which inflates prices. But this is just one factor of many, and not the immediate catalyst. The last thing we need is the complete politicization of the central bank, as PP is campaigning on. He is dead wrong. That would be dangerous beyond comprehension. – Garth

^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^
He is truly a scary proposition as PM.

What’s up with all the tweets and speeches that he will make Canada free and give Canadians control over their lives?

—————–

OMG the horror!

^^^^^^^^^^^^^^
You missed this part of my comment:

“All the while he remains silent regarding Canadians’ concerns that something similar might happen as in the US where half the population is about to lose their reproductive rights.”

It is scary don’t you think? Unless you are not really a freedom loving person.

#124 Observer on 05.07.22 at 10:18 am

IHCTD9

It has been amusing watching you try to weasel out of your words. So, you agree now, the issue is not really about”the leak”, it’s about taking away freedoms.

#125 The Regulator on 05.07.22 at 10:55 am

$ 20/hour doesn’t pay the bills. And why should Canadians work for less? I guess is Mr. Trudeau doesn’t have to worry about filling his limos’ (taxpayer supplied) gas tank on his dime. Or ever had such worries, being a trust fund baby and lifelong slacker.

Nobody becomes PM by being a slacker. Criticize actions and policies but leave the ad hominem stuff for juveniles. Any further comments like this will be deleted. – Garth

#126 Sail Away on 05.07.22 at 11:43 am

#124 Observer on 05.07.22 at 10:18 am
IHCTD9

It has been amusing watching you try to weasel out of your words. So, you agree now, the issue is not really about”the leak”, it’s about taking away freedoms.

———-

Actually, it’s about the US constitution. Americans, in general, prefer their government to have less power over the populace. RvW was an oversteppage. Get rid of it and let the people decide.

#127 The Regulator on 05.07.22 at 2:56 pm

DELETED

#128 Jenna on 05.07.22 at 3:13 pm

Prices are still going up in GTA and surrounding areas.

No one is compromising on price…also multiple bids are still happening.

#129 Kenneth Upton on 05.08.22 at 7:32 am

Canada is in for the great reset in real estate values. There is zero relationship between the price of homes and annual household incomes. At least the US figured this out and corrected, now we’re going to correct and correct massively!! Want to be a winner, homeowners should’ve sold their houses in February and rented or gone south and sat on cash. Better yet, take a small position in the upcoming boom in NFT’s – but that’s another story. The stress that is going to fill the minds of the 30 year old couple with two kids who bought late last year that are now put in a very precarious position. Do we sell and move back into our parents basement? It’s a question that’s going to be posed across many households. Speculators in the condo market, watch these units come back to those condo builders. I’m expecting a massive flood of units coming back because of the new tax implemented by the feds. Those condo developers will now be turning them into rentals. It’s going to be a complete Gong Show across the board. But the best way to make this go away, have another drink, keep buying, go get that new car, take that trip because you’ve been shut in, and maximize those credit cards! Nothing to see here. All good. My seatbelts on and I’m holding my popcorn as the show begins. I may not even slip out do use the bathroom as I don’t want to miss one minute of this 2022/23 horror movie.

#130 Mr Canada on 05.08.22 at 8:12 am

Bought an assignment sale from someone Feb 2021, only 40% of us in the condo are owners, the rest are investors that flip or rent. Multiply that by every condo in Toronto. The good news is that condos are still entry level housing and with 50% of 420,000 new immigrants with some capital $ landing in GTA every year, they have to live somewhere.