The Apocalypse

Elon’s Twitter lit up this week after a Canadian financial outfit forecast mortgages could hit 7%. “That,” moaned a homeless moister, “is apocalyptic.”

Kids, eh? Dorothy and I were ecstatic to get a 12% mortgage when we first bought in the 70s. It had been 14% a few months earlier. (By the time I was first elected and went to Ottawa in 1988 mortgages were 12% again. Two years later, a fiver cost 13.25%.) Moral: if you want cheap houses you’d better pray for high rates.

We know that Van sales are down 42% year/year (detached) and the GTA’s also plopped more than 40%. Looks like only Calgary saw a surge of buyers in April – which shows ya what $100 oil and cowgirl bravado can do.

So on Wednesday afternoon US interest rates take a big jump as the Fed raises by a half point. It will be the first of two or three such moves. Our guys go again on June 1st. Both banks are expected to steadily tighten over the course of 2022. In addition, they’ve stopped buying bonds and will be letting existing debt mature or be sold. (“Roll off the balance sheet.”)

That increases yields. In fact the benchmark US 20-year hit 3% this week. A big deal. It’s why American mortgages have swelled to over 5%. (Of course, Yanks can secure a rate for 30 years and refinance without penalty whenever costs drop. But we must to play rate roulette every five.)

Stock markets aren’t happy the punch bowl’s being taken away. Investors have grown increasingly bearish. The American Association of Individual Investors sentiment survey (referred to on this blog lately) shows that. People have not felt this weirded-out since 2009.

Source: Bloomberg

Many see a bright future when the masses are freaked like this. It’s a buying signal. In fact JPMorgan Chase analysts just said it’s one reason, “the market should rebound.” They claim higher rates, Putin, Covid in China and supply chain wonkiness have “dented but not derailed” economic expansion in the US.

In other words, be greedy when others are fearful. And vice versa.

That brings us back to the epicentre of avarice, which is Canadians houses. Here, too, fear is replacing property lust.

“Average sale price down $1,480,995 from $1,627,793 – or a decline of 9.5% MoM,” tweets a Vancouver realtor. “Let’s see what another 50bps hike will do to sentiment alongside 5 Year Government Bond yields reaching ATHs. Remember all the RE permabulls saying prices couldn’t drop 10-20% in a month?”

Talk like that scares the kiddos. They don’t relish sticking their butts out with a $1.4 million mortgage only to catch a falling knife. Meanwhile in the GTA another broker warns, “There aren’t enough agents that remember what happened in 89/90, everyone is comparing this to 2017. They are dreaming! This is a lot worse and it won’t be rebounding as quickly as 2017 at all!”

Yup. In 2017 new government anti-real estate measures brought a 15-20% price decline which reversed in eight months as rates fell. Back in the early Nineties (as referenced here) prices shed 32% and took 13 years to recover. This is fundamental difference between financial assets (little or no leverage and determined by profits) and real assets (heavily financed, rate-sensitive and influenced by your pants).

It’s why we may see a huge divergence in wealth creation over the rest of 2022. Financial markets are correcting (good) and will subsequently reflect corporate profitability, higher commodity prices, economic expansion and a continued employment boom as openings outpace job-seekers. Higher interest rates will be a drag, but Mr. Market would rather have costlier loans than unbridled inflation, which just shoves up input costs and dents consumer spending.

Residential real estate, in contrast, floats on a sea of $1.7 trillion in household property debt. And the numbers are daunting. Over 33% of borrowers lately have been opting for variable-rate loans, which are shooting higher and will continue to do so. Bad move. Meanwhile 37% of all outstanding mortgages come up for renewal in the next 12-24 months, and a slew of those borrowers will see their interest charges double.

Higher rates are also FOMO-killers. Look at all the tweets and trembly, whiny Reddit posts to sense how first-time buyers are feeling. They thought home loans could never rise past 3%, or the economy would implode. They believed the Bank of Canada cared about them. How cute.

So it’s a reasonable assumption people with liquid investments will see their portfolios recover and pace economic expansion. But folks with most of their net worth in real assets (with debt) will become less wealthy as housing declines.

As always (in other words) equity market corrections are short. A few months. Real estate market corrections are long. Years.

And there you have it. Another reason to hate Boomers.

Ha.

About the picture: “Hope you are doing well.,” writes Gordon. “Doug and Ryan are both great, but Doug’s blog posts are better.  This is Aggie. She is a 4 year old cockerfloofoodle who misses when we were all around the house because of The Covid.  She mostly just chills because she is balanced and diversified.  This dog loves patio season.  She could give two $hit$ about the current market conditions. But she would aggressively sniff some if given the chance.”

175 comments ↓

#1 dave on 05.03.22 at 2:05 pm

If the EU slaps and oil embargo on Russia, then the price of oil can shoot up to $175 over night!

This would be a step change in Inflation…would the central banks become more aggressive with interest rate hikes???

#2 Soviet Capitalist on 05.03.22 at 2:07 pm

The bull market in Canadian RE is not done yet. I am still seeing multi-million houses selling relatively easy. True, it takes 1-2 months now vs 1-2 days in February, but to me that is still a seller’s market.
Only the sellers expecting sky-high offers are disappointed. All other can still fetch a decent price for their properties.

I have a feeling the rate increase had more of psychological effect. It was significant in relative terms, but in absolute ones, the rates are still very low.

We have only begun. – Garth

#3 Finally on 05.03.22 at 2:11 pm

All I can say is it’s about time it’s been so ridiculous that people thought it was the norm, big wake up call coming.

#4 Apocalypse NOW on 05.03.22 at 2:12 pm

No, today’s blog is not trademark infringement. Garth is just telling the truth.

Canada is facing a one-asset economic meltdown, and it will be joined this year by global environmental catastrophes and war with Russia, including other enemies and nukes.

Most will not live to see 2025.

Stock up on fuel and canned goods. Evacuate major centres. Putin is about to hit the reality check wall, and become desperate.

PREPARE

#5 Shirl Clarts on 05.03.22 at 2:13 pm

Is it just me or should a “Dream-Home” Lottery be called a “Dream of owning a Home” Lottery. I mean, seriously. Most of these lottery houses are not far off the average in Van or the GTA.

Yes, it’s for a cause, I get it. Just sayin’.

#6 Doug in London on 05.03.22 at 2:13 pm

Another reason to hate Boomers? If you’re a younger Millenial, you should be laughing about the prospect of house prices falling due to higher interest rates. You should see it as revenge against those greedy (in your minds) Boomers who have been counting on the market value of their houses going up forever.

As for the stock markets, all this talk of the stock markets going down is nothing more than a tempest in a teapot. Nothing to see here, move on, but I’ll be back in a buying mood if stocks actually do go on sale.

#7 Dre on 05.03.22 at 2:24 pm

Higher rates is wonderful news for me (lawyer) and my wife (doctor). We’ve been refusing for years to compete against all these marginal buyers and saving big money in the meantime. These increases will kick them out on their keisters and we won’t be any worse off as we’ll be paying off at least a third in one shot and likely doing accelerated payments too. Sharpening those knives…

#8 TurnerNation on 05.03.22 at 2:29 pm

To be clear on this whole “WW3” thing. It’s a war for our MINDS. It kicked off that cold week March 2020.
In fact this weblog covered it, the whole people leaping off sidewalks as another approaches thing.
People that frightened will accept anything. I mean anything. Bring on the Dictatorship, we’ve earned it.

—-I posted this in May 2020. What has changed since then? Comrade is your QR code up to date for travel privileges?

#41 TurnerNation on 05.12.20 at 4:42 pm
We are in WW3. They have us using weapons terms like Vector. We are all bio-weapons according our elites
We are being bombarded by media Campaigns. Campaigns, and Theatres, are terms of war.
You will be able to tell your young kids how life was in the Old System: independence, freedom of movement and gathering. The new system the State is running all of this – you don;t move unless they say so.


— From Aug 2020. Say, they call them the Frontlines…another war term.

#156 TurnerNation on 08.26.20 at 12:21 pm
Walking into your local grocery store, confronted by Plexiglass Turrets. Occupied by masked, faceless soldiers armed with (spray) guns. You are the target. We are the enemy. The mind control is complete in this WW3.

#9 YVRTechGuy on 05.03.22 at 2:30 pm

It’s worth remembering that after the Second World War, interest rates were at 0% for a decade. Then, a further decade later, they were up at 10%+

#10 Joseph R. on 05.03.22 at 2:39 pm

Meanwhile in the GTA another broker warns, “There aren’t enough agents that remember what happened in 89/90, everyone is comparing this to 2017. They are dreaming! This is a lot worse and it won’t be rebounding as quickly as 2017 at all!”

Another random event that will affect GTA house prices, by lowering the number of apartment condo available on the market, at least in the short term:

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/construction-workers-strike-ontario-1.6438949

#11 Søren Angst on 05.03.22 at 2:57 pm

And Cdns still borrowing like crazy…

https://twitter.com/ScottTerrioHMA/status/1521457600470073344

How Cdn Household Debt compares to the other G6:

https://twitter.com/JusticeQueen6/status/1521463858732449793

This will not end well.

#12 LG on 05.03.22 at 3:02 pm

“Another reason to hate Boomers.”

Boomers received good educations, and are well educated.

Most Boomers were educated before the mid-70’s when the Board of Ed. changed curriculums. Boomers learned how things work & how to build things.

#13 Well travelled on 05.03.22 at 3:07 pm

Get ready for the debate to begin on 30 year mortgage terms.

#14 Søren Angst on 05.03.22 at 3:10 pm

Off topic.

Elderly Shanghai patient taken away in body bag, loaded onto a hearse while STILL ALIVE.

“Shanghai: Authorities fire four officials after elderly patient blunder”

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-china-61304033

————-

Reminded me of Monty Python’s “Bring out your dead”.

https://youtu.be/QcbR1J_4ICg?t=56

#15 Wait There on 05.03.22 at 3:19 pm

Nobody is winning the war in Ukraine.
The citizens of Ukraine are paying with their lives while the USA, UK, Canada & the EU is sending money and arms all based on borrowed money that everyone will eventually pay for. What is the interest rate going to do stop these foolish leaders from throwing more money at this stupidity. Wait till summer ends and we hear there is insufficient wheat to carry us through the next winter!
If this war stops, inflation will back off a bit but as long as the war continues…..it is putting fuel on inflation.
Nobody is winning and nobody will win. Really think Elensky wants the flow of money to stop? Those wanting victory will have to understand that it will cost higher inflation rates as well as more poverty and death in starvation and suffering GLOBALLY in poor countries. This is not only about Ukraine.

#16 Søren Angst on 05.03.22 at 3:22 pm

#10 Joseph R.

From RE guy that hates Garth, NOT a supply problem:

https://twitter.com/JohnPasalis/status/1521522441834700801

Also has a good summary (same guy) of RE past week, incl. Condos, for Trauma:

https://twitter.com/JohnPasalis/status/1521551472315580416
https://twitter.com/JohnPasalis/status/1521551486643326979
https://twitter.com/JohnPasalis/status/1521551490434965504

What Garth has been saying.

—————–

NOT looking good for Speculators.

GOOD for the young as affordability gets closer for them.

#17 Steven on 05.03.22 at 3:28 pm

“could” hit 7%.

COULD is not definitive at all…it IS an opinion. ONLY.

Tell me, what are governments going to do to support the masses if they blow up the housing and stock markets with consistent rate hikes into a recession?

Buy everything for pennies on the dollar and make 90% serfs?

Likely….

#18 crowdedelevatorfartz on 05.03.22 at 3:31 pm

Regular gas in the Lower Brainland.
$2.08.9 lt
Premium gas and diesel
$2.33.9 lt

$3.00 lt by July 1st Ponzie?
Happy Canada Day?

#19 Summertime on 05.03.22 at 3:33 pm


#7 Dre on 05.03.22 at 2:24 pm
Higher rates is wonderful news for me (lawyer) and my wife (doctor). We’ve been refusing for years to compete against all these marginal buyers and saving big money in the meantime. These increases will kick them out on their keisters and we won’t be any worse off as we’ll be paying off at least a third in one shot and likely doing accelerated payments too. Sharpening those knives…

I suppose you are not buying the Louvre.

A few points:
1. If a doctor and a lawyer have to rationalize a house purchase and time it out: You are in the wrong country at the wrong time.

2. Just 2 generations before you I know of single workers in a family with no university education buying a house and running 3 kids through college/university.

Just for you to have something to compare against in order to realize how these decades of ‘growth’ and economic ‘prosperity’ have ‘improved’ your life.

If you have told a blue colour worker/labourer 2 generations ago that he/she and his partner have to work 30 something years for the house and have no kids in order to afford the mortgage they would have told you that you are insane and would have shown you the finger.

#20 NOSTRADAMUS on 05.03.22 at 3:34 pm

THE PROBLEM I HAVE WITH STOCKS.
In a nutshell, Stocks are intangible, they have no touchy feel to them. Intangible assets are typically nonphysical assets used over the long term. And herein lies my big issue, intangible assets are typically intellectual assets, (repeat intellectual assets.) Proper valuation and accounting of intangible assets are often problematic. Such is due in part to how intangible assets are handled. The difficulty assigning value stems from the uncertainty of their future benefits. Also, the useful life of an intangible asset can be either identifiable or non-identifiable. Past history would strongly suggest that in too many cases, the value of intangible assets is often overly optimistic assumptions about the companies worth.
On the other hand, Tangible assets are far easier to value. They’re typically physical assets with finite monetary values, but over the years have become a smaller part of a company’s total worth. Technology disruption continues in artificial intelligence, robotics and cloud computing. As such, intangible assets have grown to represent the lion’s share of corporate valuations. Looking at corporate balance sheets it would indicate they are heavily knowledge-driven. In fact 84% of S & P 500 assets are now intangible. But without a physical form and the ability to easily convert them into cash, working out what these assets are truly worth can be challenging. Maybe I’m getting too old, but I still like that good old touchy feel. Hold on, someone at the door.

#21 Bill on 05.03.22 at 3:35 pm

There is no correlation between a public health emergency and pregnancy. Stop trying to align them. – Garth

Is the emergency still happening? Because the Federal government, out of step with the rest of the world, seems to think so – and continues to decide how my body should be addressed.

And both, abortion, and vaccination, are polarized for political gain.

I suggest they don’t – because, as stated, I make better decisions for my body, than does the government. And that also protects women’s rights to destroy their babies if they don’t like them.

It is precisely the same.

Anyone who confuses the two, is making it political.

The human mind can not, under any circumstances (beyond political), reconcile those two things.

A vaccine protects the individual, and an abortion protects a woman. Both are motivated by the same body autonomy – which if there should be anything protected – it is that – as without that – there is nothing to protect; and all laws collapse.

Vaccines prevent the spread of infection within a population. Give it up. You are done. – Garth

#22 Milton on 05.03.22 at 3:37 pm

Doug Ford is banking on the thousands of disabled to sign up for assisted death to transfer the social assistance monies to the indebted Wasaga Beach netizens.

Sounds like lunacy, but that is how conservatives act to their Wasaga Beach voter base.

They would rather see hundreds of thousands of social assistance recipients drop dead and to use that extra money to bail out the indebted surfer beach couple who paid a mil for a Wasaga Beach cottage.

#23 Dogman01 on 05.03.22 at 3:38 pm

Will stagflation return?

Good video with history lesson
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eNLC9sYDuV4

#24 crowdedelevatorfartz on 05.03.22 at 3:48 pm

Hmmm.
The Apocalypse indeed.

What’ll the Markets do on May 9th if Putin uses the WWII celebration for “Patriots Day” to declare war on Ukraine and Nato?

https://nationalpost.com/news/world/west-fears-putin-will-declare-all-out-war-on-russias-v-day

#25 S on 05.03.22 at 3:51 pm

“So it’s a reasonable assumption people with liquid investments will see their portfolios recover and pace economic expansion. But folks with most of their net worth in real assets (with debt) will become less wealthy as housing declines.”

How about incoming generating Quick service restaurants? I own one, with no debt, but also work a full time job in IT and as I get older and more tired am looking to sell. Would it be better to cash out now or after rates rise?

Long time reader, very rare commenter. Appreciate the work you do, thank you.

#26 IHCTD9 on 05.03.22 at 3:54 pm

This year is shaping up to be a front kick for most. Spooked market, spooked homebuyers, prices on everything going up (Gas 1.86 here as of this am, two shrinkflated bags of chips for 8.00 etc…), Russian officials talking about nukes.

This will be the unfathomable becoming real for the Mils. Looks like they’re getting the whole enchilada all at once. Frankly, this will be an equal front kick for Gen X. We know about the 80’s, but we never had to live them for real. We’ve had extremely smooth sailing since the 90’s. Only the Boomers have actually lived this show before.

My main focus is going to be controlling my COL. I am actually a little surprised how fierce inflation has become. Even the kids are talking about it.

I am also simplifying, and this brings some sad news. I have been liquidating my collectibles and this week, the TD9 will be taking a one-way trip to Crawler Valhalla. Scrap is through the roof, and I don’t care to work on multiple machines anymore.

I guess I’ll have to think up a new handle.

#27 Captain Uppa on 05.03.22 at 4:02 pm

Is it then right to say that those who purchased homes prior to, say, 2020, have dodge a bullet?

That is those that are fine with being above water, hold liquid assets as in their portfolio as well and are fine with healthy 2-3% y/y gains in home equity.

Not sure how the greedy folks are feeling, even those who bought in 2015! Never enough for some.

Sad.

#28 Observer on 05.03.22 at 4:05 pm

SA and IHCTD9,

It’s quite telling when you expresses more concern over HOW the public found out about the Supreme Court draft opinion to overturn Roe v Wade, than WHAT THIS COULD MEAN for women’s rights.

#29 april on 05.03.22 at 4:09 pm

#2 – people taking advantage of their pre- approved lower rate …. they will regret it as Garth has made reference to a number of times now.

#30 Legal Beagle on 05.03.22 at 4:10 pm

#7 Dre on 05.03.22 at 2:24 pm

Higher rates is wonderful news for me (lawyer) and my wife (doctor). We’ve been refusing for years to compete against all these marginal buyers and saving big money in the meantime. These increases will kick them out on their keisters and we won’t be any worse off as we’ll be paying off at least a third in one shot and likely doing accelerated payments too. Sharpening those knives…

*******************************************

LOL the Mrs. and I are in the same boat right down to the careers. I wonder how many of us there are… hopefully not that many and this blog is just an aggregator of like-minded individuals.

I do feel for those starting to feel the pressure of the monetary noose around their necks, while we continue on with no worry or change to our lifestyles… just have to remember that by and large they did it to themselves.

#31 TurnerNation on 05.03.22 at 4:15 pm

War on SFH. The cutesy term is ‘Densification’. Comrades do not be so selfish and hoard the land.

https://www.blogto.com/real-estate-toronto/2022/05/toronto-street-wiped-out-single-development/
Trolleybus Urban Development wants to build three new residential apartment buildings on the quiet street. Their proposed heights of 38, 34, and 19 storeys….
Of course, residents of the home and surrounding streets would have to contend with up to 700 new cars in their neck of the woods….

— Food supply…always.

.Shanghai lockdown sends chill down meat trade (reuters.com)


— Control over our Breeding.

https://www.politico.com/news/2022/05/02/supreme-court-abortion-draft-opinion-00029473
Supreme Court has voted to overturn abortion rights, draft opinion shows
“We hold that Roe and Casey must be overruled,” Justice Alito writes in an initial majority draft circulated inside the court.


— Travel hijinx. Endless. Think Global Digital ID.

.Travellers at Toronto’s Pearson International Airport are being asked to pack plenty of patience on Monday as longer than expected lineups and Canada-wide staffing shortages cause delays. (cbc.ca)

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/covid-19-omicron-outbreak-new-vaccine-pass-system-revealed-new-personal-vaccine-history-journal-planned/MPPJKKMMDTXFAVSU7SZPEGRJHA/
New vaccine pass system revealed, new personal vaccine history journal planned

#32 Bill on 05.03.22 at 4:17 pm

DELETED (Anti-vaccine)

#33 Another Reason to Hate Boomers on 05.03.22 at 4:22 pm

And another reason to hate Boomers:

After we’ve given our kids down payments for houses and watched our home equity vaporize, their home equity vaporize and gotten our kids into debt slavery, we’ll retire with no cash and our kids will have to take care of us.

You’re welcome.

#34 The Regulator on 05.03.22 at 4:24 pm

Let us all bow our heads as the Pope recently said : “l am not going to Kiev for now; I feel I must not go. First I must go to Moscow. First I must meet Putin”.
Other wise words from the Pope : Perhaps “the barking of N.A.T.O. at the gates of Russia is likely what motivated Putin to attack Ukraine”.
Finally, he quipped : “I can’t say it was provoked, but perhaps, yes”. Ruble$ now sitting at 68.5000 to the U.S. dollah. Whaaaat???

#35 The Regulator on 05.03.22 at 4:28 pm

#15 – Wait There : Wise words spoken over hysteria. Thank you.

#36 Jeff on 05.03.22 at 4:30 pm

Thanks for digging up the refi numbers Garth. 37% in the next 2 years is going to be one rude awakening if rates stay elevated.

#37 Sail Away on 05.03.22 at 4:33 pm

#28 Observer on 05.03.22 at 4:05 pm

SA and IHCTD9,

It’s quite telling when you expresses more concern over HOW the public found out about the Supreme Court draft opinion to overturn Roe v Wade, than WHAT THIS COULD MEAN for women’s rights.

———-

????

Eh? My discussion has been completely about your and Sunshower’s enthusiasm for influencing Supreme Court rulings through intimidation of the justices.

What’s your best tactic? Brick through the window? Firebomb their car? Steal their flag? Maybe kidnap or off a family member? So many delectable options when strong-arming is acceptable.

#38 TTC Rider on 05.03.22 at 4:33 pm

While Garth is busy arguing with anti-vaxxers and anti-abortion nutcases, have anyone riden the TTC?

It’s a real dystopia. The TTC looks like they are getting back on their losses by allowing unkempt individuals to act as fare collectors.

Every night, they walk through the cabs, and ask EVERYONE for $5. They insist that they are TTC fare collectors.

When I complain to the TTC, they tell me that the transit enforcement is not allowed to ask for money, because that is extortion, but Toronto Police tell me that it’s a matter of the TTC.

The TTC is demanding $5 extra on fares.

#39 crowdedelevatorfartz on 05.03.22 at 4:37 pm

@#26 IHCTD9
” the TD9 will be taking a one-way trip to Crawler Valhalla. ”

+++

Damn!
Just when I was getting used to typing that moniker.
Are you sure you want rid of the various functioning relics that run on the precious juice?
“Road warrior”?

#40 Ab Server on 05.03.22 at 4:38 pm

#28 Observer

SA and IHCTD9

-/-/-/-/-

“Women can choose what they do to their bodies, why can’t I?” …was an argument heard last 14 months.

This Supreme Court decision ends that nonsense once and for all. No one has say over their bodies – and that’s fair for everyone now.

Next up? Mandatory Neuralink! Go Elon Go!

#41 Chameleon on 05.03.22 at 4:42 pm

Thanks for finally pushing down the picture of that dog with a bow.

Darn thing took wife’s attention for the past 24, I barely got any attention. I’ll have to delete the photo she saved…but have to find a way to do it covertly so I don’t get implicated. Stupid iPhone keeps the photos in a recently deleted folder too, so it ain’t easy to delete stuff “by accident”.

#42 crowdedelevatorfartz on 05.03.22 at 4:44 pm

@#33 Hate Boomers
“…..we’ll retire with no cash and our kids will have to take care of us….”

+++
The truly selfish Boomer squanders all their money down to the last penny and has no children to look after them….
Thus the govt teat shall provide sustenance for ever….
You’re welcome.

#43 Stealth on 05.03.22 at 4:49 pm

Thank you for the post,

Is there now enough red liquid on the ground to buy (can’t say blood here obviously)?

#44 Just starting.... on 05.03.22 at 5:13 pm

Leaside: highest bungalow price of all time got 2.4 million last week, 25 ft front.

What’s the name of this blog again? – Garth

#45 Paul on 05.03.22 at 5:13 pm

#13 Well travelled on 05.03.22 at 3:07 pm
Get ready for the debate to begin on 30 year mortgage terms.
————————————————————————————————
Haha No debate natural progression,

#46 vanreal on 05.03.22 at 5:24 pm

What Garth isn’t saying is that home sale in Vancouver were 1.5% above the 10 year average for April. Again it’s all in how you read the numbers. Lies, damn lies and statistics

Given cheap (still) mortgages, ideal demographics, new buyer incentives and population growth would we not expect something greater than a 1% increase over 10-year stats? Anyway, a 40% year/year drop makes reasonable folks ask… why? – Garth

#47 Downward Slope on 05.03.22 at 5:24 pm

#26 IHCTD9 on 05.03.22 at 3:54 pm

I am also simplifying, and this brings some sad news. I have been liquidating my collectibles and this week, the TD9 will be taking a one-way trip to Crawler Valhalla. Scrap is through the roof, and I don’t care to work on multiple machines anymore.

I guess I’ll have to think up a new handle.

///////////////

How about ‘Yappy’.

Or maybe ‘Am I repeating myself’

or ‘If I said it once I’ve said it a million times’

#48 yorkville renter on 05.03.22 at 5:26 pm

#30 – Legal Beagle – same here… I think like-minded people come here.

No debt… 5-figure monthly savings. Life is gooooooood.

#49 Observer on 05.03.22 at 5:28 pm

#37 Sail Away on 05.03.22 at 4:33 pm
#28 Observer on 05.03.22 at 4:05 pm

SA and IHCTD9,

It’s quite telling when you expresses more concern over HOW the public found out about the Supreme Court draft opinion to overturn Roe v Wade, than WHAT THIS COULD MEAN for women’s rights.

———-

????

Eh? My discussion has been completely about your and Sunshower’s enthusiasm for influencing Supreme Court rulings through intimidation of the justices.

What’s your best tactic? Brick through the window? Firebomb their car? Steal their flag? Maybe kidnap or off a family member? So many delectable options when strong-arming is acceptable.

^^^^^^^^^^^
LOL. Yeah right. More like you want to deflect and attack.

#50 Habsfan60 on 05.03.22 at 5:30 pm

Long time reader, first time poster. My brother mandated reading of this blog many years ago and we still reference it in conversations. Ok enough of the kiss up.

Anecdotal observation when perusing Toronto Craiglist real estate listings. I would say listings have tripled and are constantly being reposted plus there sure is a lot of “assignment sales” for offer. I expect a few more post June rate increase.

New pictures every day, I wish I was owned by a dog!

#51 Observer on 05.03.22 at 5:39 pm

Imagine the ramifications of overturning Roe versus Wade for other privacy rights involving contraception and gay rights. Aren’t there some actual problems US could be working towards solvling rather than moving backwards?

#52 Nonplused on 05.03.22 at 5:43 pm

A wee bit off today’s topic but still within the blog purview:

Have you heard Notley’s new election plank? Everyone in the Northeast of Calgary that got hailed on 3 years ago gets a new metal roof if she is elected, to the tune of $2.5 billion dollars estimated. To swing two ridings.

So I have some questions:

How did the NDP meteorological department determine that all future hail storms in Calgary will strike the same 2 northeast ridings? Aren’t they kind of random?

What if the next hail storm strikes Noland Heights or the Quarry District? Or Arbor Lake? Do they all get free metal roofs too?

Aren’t all of the roofs that were destroyed by the hail storm already replaced with new roofs that should last 25 years assuming not all future hails storms are directed to that area? Isn’t it kind of a waste to tear off a 3 year old roof to put a new one on? Don’t you at least wait for the next hail storm, if there is one?

What happened to the concept of home owner’s insurance? The majority of the damaged homes were covered by insurance, as it is supposed to be because insuring the roofs and fixing those damaged is far cheaper than putting in all metal roofs on every house.

Those homes that weren’t covered by insurance, well, isn’t that the home owner’s business? If he/she/they think the insurance is too expensive then that is their business. But why should I have to buy them a nice new metal roof if they turned out to be wrong?

And here is the most sinister part about it; if Notley does get elected and implements this plan, you have to take the money. It would be stupid not to. You are getting a free metal roof. It will affect resale value. Who would it help if you decided to be a hero just because you know everything about the program is wrong and immoral? It would be like turning down CERB money. Even though you know you shouldn’t take it and you are probably going to increase your time in purgatory, you have to take the money. This is how the government slowly turns us all into complicit criminal participants in their nefarious schemes. When socialism comes, well, you took the free roof and the CERB so you are just as guilty.

#53 Big Bucks on 05.03.22 at 5:44 pm

They’re talking a big game with rates but have yet to do much at all.We’ll see when the overnight rate hits 2-2.5 by year end I guess but that is still very low.I guess the hope is the shock of raising rates by a factor of 10(from 0.25 to2.50)will take care of inflation….and it just might.The longer this drags on inflation may come down and the need to raise rates further may just not be there.Can anyone really see an overnight rate of anything close to 4%?That would just knock the stuffing out of basically everything(going from 0.25%)imo.

#54 Neo on 05.03.22 at 5:46 pm

OOps. Maybe should have stayed home. I wouldn’t risk my life for Canada let alone Ukraine. What chump.

https://bb-cntv.com/world/canadian-general-trevor-kadier-captured-while-trying-to-escape-from-azovstal-38266/

#55 Capt. Serious on 05.03.22 at 5:49 pm

I don’t know, growth equities could still have a ways to fall. PEs have been supported by low rates and if the latter keep marching up PEs will continue compressing. The question is really when do the markets start looking past the rate increases to when they’ll level off. If the market whiffs a recession next year, look out below. Nothing to do but stay invested, but you can’t be surprised if the market falls further.

#56 MD on 05.03.22 at 5:51 pm

HELOC is 100% financing, we will find out how that works out in a rising rate environment. Another 1.5% rise in interest rate by summer will open the pandora box of low inventory all of a sudden. 50% crash is possible if prime reaches 5.5-6% just due to amount of leverage and nothing to do with real incomes. A lifetime of lesson to be learnt if interest rates actually rise as forecasted.

#57 Sail Away on 05.03.22 at 6:02 pm

#49 Observer on 05.03.22 at 5:28 pm
#37 Sail Away on 05.03.22 at 4:33 pm
#28 Observer on 05.03.22 at 4:05 pm

SA and IHCTD9,

It’s quite telling when you expresses more concern over HOW the public found out about the Supreme Court draft opinion to overturn Roe v Wade, than WHAT THIS COULD MEAN for women’s rights.

———

????

Eh? My discussion has been completely about your and Sunshower’s enthusiasm for influencing Supreme Court rulings through intimidation of the justices.

What’s your best tactic? Brick through the window? Firebomb their car? Steal their flag? Maybe kidnap or off a family member? So many delectable options when strong-arming is acceptable.

———

LOL. Yeah right. More like you want to deflect and attack.

———

No, I have no interest whatsoever in coercing, intimidating or attacking Supreme Court justices.

Clearly, there are some folks, of certain ideological leaning, who do indeed approve of such techniques, and they would find good company with others, such as, let’s say… Putin. Or Stalin. Or the big H.

But not me. I believe in democracy.

#58 baloney Sandwitch on 05.03.22 at 6:02 pm

A big part is experience. An old war horse like Garth (and me) have gone through many financial rodeo’s and a couple of RE ones. I was a first time buyer who bought at the top in ’89 with a mid teens mortgage. Three years later our mortgage was underwater and had eaten through the down payment. There is always a silver lining: The coming crash will offer some good opportunities.

#59 Reality Check on 05.03.22 at 6:15 pm

What’ll the Markets do on May 9th if Putin uses the WWII celebration for “Patriots Day” to declare war on Ukraine and Nato?
—————

The media is having a field day with that headline. Putin declaring war means nothing other than it gives him some an at home boost. Does rational person outside Russia really see whats happening in the Ukraine as anything other than war?

As for declaring war on NATO, same thing, nothing burger. Putin has already said Russia is at war with the west. And Putin would never make a military move against a NATO country and force NATO into a war. seriously, the great Russian army has been absolutely humiliated by the Ukraine. NATO would render the Russian army impotent in a matter of days.

As for Putin using nukes – never. He’s not stupid. Being a live billionaire dictator is so much fun. Be a dead onetime billionaire dictator not so much.

#60 IHCTD9 on 05.03.22 at 6:25 pm

#28 Observer on 05.03.22 at 4:05 pm
SA and IHCTD9,

It’s quite telling when you expresses more concern over HOW the public found out about the Supreme Court draft opinion to overturn Roe v Wade, than WHAT THIS COULD MEAN for women’s rights.
———

Now’s not the time to light your hair on fire. Save the BBQ starter fluid for when R+W is actually scrapped, and abortion is actually illegal in the US (which won’t happen).

I know you’re all freaked out right now, but it’s no biggie. A few Molotov cocktails through the Judge’s living room window should produce a positive outcome.

#61 Elon Fanboy on 05.03.22 at 6:25 pm

#28 Observer “It’s quite telling when you expresses more concern over HOW the public found out about the Supreme Court draft opinion to overturn Roe v Wade, than WHAT THIS COULD MEAN for women’s rights.”

———-

Well as far as I’m aware all that would change is that individual States determine their abortion laws rather than the Feds.

#62 the Jaguar on 05.03.22 at 6:31 pm

“…..but Doug’s blog posts are better. “.
What a mean thing to say. They are different personalities. Ying and Yang. Doug isn’t inclined to take prisoners or any guff. Ryan’s analysis is sound. He isn’t the type to post photos of his hairy legs.

All this flotsam jetsam about upcoming upheaval. It must be time to drag out this old quote from Andrew Mellon:

‘liquidate labor, liquidate stocks, liquidate the farmers, liquidate real estate. Purge the rottenness out of the system. High costs of living and high living will come down. … enterprising people will pick up the wrecks from less competent people.”

Amen brother. In the meanwhile those of us who are unindebted will just sit back, mix up a cocktail, and watch the Calgary Flames win the Stanley Cup. It’s time to party like 1988.

#63 Woolsocks on 05.03.22 at 6:46 pm

Been begrudgingly following the recommendations of this site for more than a decade: piously renting, diligently investing in the ol’ B&D’s. It ain’t easy, but so far so good.

First thing, renting in Canada is awful. You’re made to feel like a second citizen because you didn’t agree to be one million in debt or more. In the last five years we’ve had to move four times, on each occasion our LLord cashed out. We’re looking right now and, honestly, there is not much available in our community. That which is available is so danged expensive, any new LLords obviously want to saddle us with their huge mortgage plus a little cherry of monthly profit on top of it.

This brings me to the second thing. It’s really easy to resent this whole mess. But, the silver lining to our depressing housing search is knowing exactly what Mr Turner has outlined here today: that my diligent little B&D portfolio is probably (hopefully?) going to be proudly standing triumphantly astride a heaping mess of Canadian real-estate by the end of this year. When markets dip like this, the monthly DRIP’s simply buy more of it and get charged for the climb back up.

I don’t know if that’s excitement or serious schadenfreude I feel, but it all feels a bit shameful regardless. Lot of households including friends and family gonna hurt. The “I told you so” will be bitter-sweet. The sooner we can do the damage, get over it and move on, the better. We should never have produced this much dumb wealth by selling ourselves houses at arbitrary, ever increasing values.

Interest rates can’t rise fast enough. Well, actually they can, but…

Thanks Garth for this site, you’re a good egg.

#64 DON on 05.03.22 at 6:51 pm

Talk like that scares the kiddos. They don’t relish sticking their butts out with a $1.4 million mortgage only to catch a falling knife. Meanwhile in the GTA another broker warns, “There aren’t enough agents that remember what happened in 89/90, everyone is comparing this to 2017. They are dreaming! This is a lot worse and it won’t be rebounding as quickly as 2017 at all!”

*************
Folks on this blog like…I don’t know, are repeating the 2017 mantra. Greedy greedy folks.

#65 Midnight’s on 05.03.22 at 6:52 pm

House prices are NOT coming down in any substantial way.

https://adventuresincapitalism.com/2022/05/02/in-defense-of-housing/

#66 Observer on 05.03.22 at 6:53 pm

No, I have no interest whatsoever in coercing, intimidating or attacking Supreme Court justices.

^^^^^^^^^^^^

Neither do I. I guess we agree on one thing.

#67 Lucas on 05.03.22 at 6:54 pm

Equity market corrections are on average 18 months not a few, and we are now 13 years away from the last major one. Buckle up.

Wrong. “The S&P 500 spent 7,168 days correcting from peak to trough in the 72 years from Jan. 1, 1950 to Dec. 31, 2021. This works out to an average correction length of 188.6 days, or about six months.” As stated. – Garth

#68 Sail Away on 05.03.22 at 6:55 pm

#61 Elon Fanboy on 05.03.22 at 6:25 pm
#28 Observer “It’s quite telling when you expresses more concern over HOW the public found out about the Supreme Court draft opinion to overturn Roe v Wade, than WHAT THIS COULD MEAN for women’s rights.”

———

Well as far as I’m aware all that would change is that individual States determine their abortion laws rather than the Feds.

———

That is correct.

Justice Alito’s legal position in the leaked document is that Roe v. Wade should be overturned because it was insufficiently justified, has no federal constitutional basis, and decisions of this type should be left to each state and their democratically-elected leaders.

#69 The joy of steerage on 05.03.22 at 6:55 pm

#62 the Jaguar on 05.03.22 at 6:31 pm
“…..but Doug’s blog posts are better. “.
What a mean thing to say. They are different personalities. Ying and Yang. Doug isn’t inclined to take prisoners or any guff. Ryan’s analysis is sound. He isn’t the type to post photos of his hairy legs.

All this flotsam jetsam about upcoming upheaval. It must be time to drag out this old quote from Andrew Mellon:

‘liquidate labor, liquidate stocks, liquidate the farmers, liquidate real estate. Purge the rottenness out of the system. High costs of living and high living will come down. … enterprising people will pick up the wrecks from less competent people.”

Amen brother. In the meanwhile those of us who are unindebted will just sit back, mix up a cocktail, and watch the Calgary Flames win the Stanley Cup. It’s time to party like 1988.

It was 89… is it booze or age distorting the memory?

#70 k on 05.03.22 at 6:59 pm

Legendary investor Warren Buffett is famous for saying “Only when the tide goes out do you discover who’s been swimming naked.” I’m afraid it’s going to look like a national nudist colony all wet !

#71 IHCTD9 on 05.03.22 at 7:03 pm

#61 Elon Fanboy on 05.03.22 at 6:25 pm
#28 Observer “It’s quite telling when you expresses more concern over HOW the public found out about the Supreme Court draft opinion to overturn Roe v Wade, than WHAT THIS COULD MEAN for women’s rights.”

———-

Well as far as I’m aware all that would change is that individual States determine their abortion laws rather than the Feds.
———

Yep, that’s about the extent of it. And “IF”. Plus, the right to abort will be upheld federally no matter what happens.

But the Lefties want ultimate control over everything, and everyone. As usual.

If not, apparently you’d better check under the seat for a bundle of C4 before putting your keys in the ignition. They need a positive outcome, and if you happen to disagree, your life is worth about as much to them as.. well, you know.

#72 Observer on 05.03.22 at 7:03 pm

#60 IHCTD9 on 05.03.22 at 6:25 pm
#28 Observer on 05.03.22 at 4:05 pm
SA and IHCTD9,

It’s quite telling when you expresses more concern over HOW the public found out about the Supreme Court draft opinion to overturn Roe v Wade, than WHAT THIS COULD MEAN for women’s rights.
———

Now’s not the time to light your hair on fire. Save the BBQ starter fluid for when R+W is actually scrapped, and abortion is actually illegal in the US (which won’t happen).

I know you’re all freaked out right now, but it’s no biggie. A few Molotov cocktails through the Judge’s living room window should produce a positive outcome.

^^^^^^^^^^
Strange comment.

#73 crowdedelevatorfartz on 05.03.22 at 7:06 pm

@#59 Reality Bites
“the great Russian army has been absolutely humiliated by the Ukraine. NATO would render the Russian army impotent in a matter of days.”

+++
Putin is in a tough spot.
He started the war.
Now?
His generals are p!$$ed at the low level grind that has embarrased them.
So Putin has to go “all in” and placate his military or he’s toast.
Next?
Compulsory conscription drawing up hundreds of thousands of men, machines and weapons for a massed assault..
All to bear on Ukraine.
Will Nato up its game and join in as every city and town in Ukraine is pulverized?
Not likely.
The politicians will wring their hands and point their fingers as tens of thousands more die and millions more become refugees.
A slow motion grind into a world war where no one can back down and it will only end with Putin’s head on a stick.
With China sitting back watching, waiting and learning from Russia’s mistakes…

#74 Observer on 05.03.22 at 7:06 pm

#61 Elon Fanboy on 05.03.22 at 6:25 pm
#28 Observer “It’s quite telling when you expresses more concern over HOW the public found out about the Supreme Court draft opinion to overturn Roe v Wade, than WHAT THIS COULD MEAN for women’s rights.”

———-

Well as far as I’m aware all that would change is that individual States determine their abortion laws rather than the Feds.

^^^^^^^^^^^^^
Yeah. No biggie. /s

#75 Jennifer on 05.03.22 at 7:08 pm

As a woman, I am tired of anyone telling me how I should behave. Clearly, Americans are spending too much time controlling women, instead of worrying about other more important issues.

You don’t have to be educated to understand one simple fact. High enough interest rate matching debt, is going to bring down house prices.

We don’t have to waste tax payers money to help ” homeless” buy overpriced house.

Why does it have to always be sooo… complicated. Well simply put, because it always become Political.

#76 Quintilian on 05.03.22 at 7:13 pm

#46 vanreal on 05.03.22 at 5:24 pm
“What Garth isn’t saying is that home sale in Vancouver were 1.5% above the 10 year average for April. Again it’s all in how you read the numbers. Lies, damn lies and statistics” “

Van Unreal, you have a problem, luckily it can be treated with some degree of success.

You suffer from Comfabulation.

#77 Lumber on 05.03.22 at 7:14 pm

I remember buying my first house in 1989. A lovely craftsman on Brookside Drive in Toronto’s upper beaches. $300,000 sure felt pricey then, with my 25% down and a 12% mortgage. I still put in a $35,000 kitchen addition and sold it several years later for exactly $299,000. I still remember how real estate can bite.

#78 pPrasseur on 05.03.22 at 7:14 pm

A pretty interesting analysis:

Much of the tech sector, financed by speculators and cheap credit, makes no profit, tech bubble is bursting, companies are planning layoffs and data shows massive layoffs in the tech sector to be expected this year!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YOojj399w0g&t=1

Real estate will be hit hard in tech heavy areas.

#79 The Woosh on 05.03.22 at 7:16 pm

#46 vanreal on 05.03.22 at 5:24 pm
What Garth isn’t saying is that home sale in Vancouver were 1.5% above the 10 year average for April. Again it’s all in how you read the numbers. Lies, damn lies and statistics

Given cheap (still) mortgages, ideal demographics, new buyer incentives and population growth would we not expect something greater than a 1% increase over 10-year stats? Anyway, a 40% year/year drop makes reasonable folks ask… why? – Garth

———————————————
Nope…that’s just your recency bias kicking in Garth. Nothing to see here!

#80 Observer on 05.03.22 at 7:21 pm

SA and IDHCT9,

Are you supportive or not supportive of a woman’s right to choose whether or not to get an abortion?

#81 T Rex and the dinosaur clique on 05.03.22 at 7:35 pm

BoC about to get their a$$ handed to them.

One thing I can tell you is you can get away with anything so long as the going is good. No one asks questions.

When things go south, however, that is when the questions start.

Tiff and Co are about to get a feel for how bad it is to screw things up.

Better delete all those emails from Trudeau…..”hey Tiff can you print more money and buy more bonds…the climate, yeah social justice…yeah yeah we are building back better….

Toast. Absolute toast. Sit back and watch the fireworks

#82 VladTor on 05.03.22 at 7:45 pm

#46 vanreal on 05.03.22 at 5:24 pm
What Garth isn’t saying is that home sale in Vancouver were 1.5% above the 10 year average for April. Again it’s all in how you read the numbers. Lies, damn lies and statistics

************
Not at all.
Couple factors still push prices up.
1.Rate still extremely low – free money!
2. Buyers zombie by paid RE mafia articles in mass media and still believe that higher home price party will be forever.
3. Some governments perks/programs blinded buyers as Garth explained to us.

and FINALLY – the number of financially illiterate fools in this country simply rolls over.

#83 DON on 05.03.22 at 7:55 pm

#13 Well travelled on 05.03.22 at 3:07 pm
Get ready for the debate to begin on 30 year mortgage terms.

************

Like everything in Canadian politics the debate will come much too late for most folks.

That $1.86 household debt to income ratio is a BIG problem sooner or later? Jobs are good now but that won’t last forever. Yikes…a big Ball and Chain gift that just keeps on giving. Assume the position!

#84 Ponzius Pilatus on 05.03.22 at 8:00 pm

#18 crowdedelevatorfartz on 05.03.22 at 3:31 pm
Regular gas in the Lower Brainland.
$2.08.9 lt
Premium gas and diesel
$2.33.9 lt

$3.00 lt by July 1st Ponzie?
Happy Canada Day?
———–
Diesel 239.9.
Weep for yor buddy IHTCDO.
And this may be end for Truckers.
Should have known better than pissing off our Prime Minister.

#85 Flop… on 05.03.22 at 8:00 pm

Reserve Bank of Australia raised its rate from a piddly 0.10% to a massive 0.35%.

In the middle of an election and the first raise since 2010, I think.

They raised, I will lower the expectations of my Southern Hemisphere Portfolio.

The main debt now I owe to Australia, is that by living there growing up, I didn’t know what a Trudeau was until I had turned 30…

M47BC

#86 Reality is stark on 05.03.22 at 8:06 pm

What is happening in Ukraine is tragic.
The seeds of democracy in Russia are accelerating.
If it costs the USA half a trillion to complete the deal it will be cheap.
However the real significant development is the rise of Poland and the Ukraine as true US partners in Europe.
They can fight and will die for freedom.
Who really knows what the Germans and the French stand for?
We know Merkel had no problem dealing with the devil (Putin) and she has blood on her hands. Do you really believe Reagan or Thatcher would have bought his gas once he rolled over Crimea?
The USA gets to test their new sophisticated weaponry on the moribund Russian military as Russian conscripts get slaughtered. Why test in Nevada when you have a better environment to complete a more thorough statistical analysis on the effectiveness of your arms.
I doubt the USA wants the war to end too quickly so Putin is the perfect narcissistic clown to prolong the idiocy.
This is Putin’s worst nightmare.
I can see how the Chinese are disappointed with Putin’s miscalculations as democracy knocks on the front door not to mention the fact that they bought all that useless Russian military hardware.
US soldiers aren’t dying this time and the USA finally has Europe ponying up some money to defend themselves.
But the good news doesn’t end there, that courageous Ukrainian blood is coming to North America to invigorate the next generation. Perhaps it is time the woke here wake up as the competition heats up.

#87 Ponzius Pilatus on 05.03.22 at 8:12 pm

#73 crowdedelevatorfartz on 05.03.22 at 7:06 pm
@#59 Reality Bites
“the great Russian army has been absolutely humiliated by the Ukraine. NATO would render the Russian army impotent in a matter of days.”

+++
Putin is in a tough spot.
He started the war.
Now?
His generals are p!$$ed at the low level grind that has embarrased them.
So Putin has to go “all in” and placate his military or he’s toast.
Next?
Compulsory conscription drawing up hundreds of thousands of men, machines and weapons for a massed assault..
All to bear on Ukraine.
Will Nato up its game and join in as every city and town in Ukraine is pulverized?
Not likely.
The politicians will wring their hands and point their fingers as tens of thousands more die and millions more become refugees.
A slow motion grind into a world war where no one can back down and it will only end with Putin’s head on a stick.
With China sitting back watching, waiting and learning from Russia’s mistakes…
————–
As I said before this is a “weird” war.
Up to now, it’s just a skirmish.
Once Putin declares War on Ukraine, he can call up about to 1 million reserves.
God have mercy on Ukraine.

#88 Sail Away on 05.03.22 at 8:21 pm

#80 Observer on 05.03.22 at 7:21 pm
SA and IDHCT9,

Are you supportive or not supportive of a woman’s right to choose whether or not to get an abortion?

——–

For me, it’s pretty much the same question as whether hernia operations should be allowed. I don’t support or not-support either opinion.

#89 crowdedelevatorfartz on 05.03.22 at 8:22 pm

@#80 Obswerver
“Are you supportive or not supportive of a woman’s right to choose whether or not to get an abortion?’

+++
Does it really matter what any of us think?

When the Republican Christian Right can stuff the US Supreme Court with enough votes to drag us back to the stone age?

#90 the jaguar on 05.03.22 at 8:28 pm

89 – Neither. A type-o. And you are a major league A hole for your comment. No wonder many of the more intelligent posters have abandoned this blog. The level of discourse has been negative and downward for some time. Good example today with Senator Bluto posting reasonably on something and then the pile on begins. Why is the issue of abortion in this day and age of birth control and science to prevent any unwanted births even an issue worthy of serious discourse unless as a discussion surrounding paying for someone’s stupidity or negligence? Parental or otherwise. Wake up people. This isn’t the 1950’s . Is there a medical professional reading this blog who can comment on the cost of repeat abortions and carefree attitude of some females regarding their so called ‘right to abortion’?
Why are there so damn abortions in 2022?
Seriously Garth. Too many trolls on your blog these days. It’s gotten progressively worse. And this is without the usual suspects posting. KNLR must be Rowe-ing in the boat with he who cannot be named for fear of his return. Now wait for it.

#91 K Shaped Recovery on 05.03.22 at 8:38 pm

#80 Observer

Not supportive of a woman’s right to choose.

One sec, popcorn is almost done…..

……aaaaand, go!

#92 TTC helps on 05.03.22 at 9:12 pm

To the TTC Rider,

Every TTC customer is required to pay their fare. In the event of a dispute, please pay your fare collect a transfer and contact TTC support.

Fare evasion is a crime. You can be fined $425, imprisoned or both. Pay your fare.

#93 mickclean on 05.03.22 at 9:17 pm

Bought a townhome for $117,000 in 1989 by the time I reluctantly closed in 1991 it was worth about $95,000 and by the time I moved in it and others in the project were going for $70,000. I put down 25% so lost all that 11-12% monthly interest too. Sold the damn thing for $105,000 in 2004, the deal laid me low for years.

#94 Mark on 05.03.22 at 9:21 pm

#78 pPrasseur

A pretty interesting analysis:

—————
LOL Reventure “Consulting” might be one of the worst “info” channels on all of youtube. I haven’t heard so many simplistic, hyperbolic and non-sequitur arguments since last time I tuned in to C-SPAN. Why anyone would take life advice from a 20-something youtuber with no life experience is beyond words.

#95 Ponzius Pilatus on 05.03.22 at 9:25 pm

#88 the jaguar on 05.03.22 at 8:28 pm
89 – Neither. A type-o. And you are a major league A hole for your comment. No wonder many of the more intelligent posters have abandoned this blog. The level of discourse has been negative and downward for some time. Good example today with Senator Bluto posting reasonably on something and then the pile on begins.
—————-
Please enlighten me.
Who are the intelligent posters posters who have abandoned  this blog?
CEF, Sailo and IHTCDO are still here.
Senator Pluto is what you call an intelligent poster?
Explain, please.

#96 A.C on 05.03.22 at 9:28 pm

Lock in a 10 year 4.5% right now? Yah or nah. I’m not joking. I got a relative saying thier gonna take a 3 year variable and I’m like .

#97 crowdedelevatorfartz on 05.03.22 at 9:29 pm

6pm Global Vancouver News

18 consecutive months of 150 + people dying PER MONTH in BC of overdoses.

+++++

Housing sales Prices in the Lowerbrainland actually increased by 1% from March 2022

Sales are down 25% from March 2022
Sales are down 34% compared to April 2021.

#98 crowdedelevatorfartz on 05.03.22 at 9:30 pm

@#90 the jag

Apparently reading and comprehension isn’t your strongest trait.

I’m pro choice.

#99 Pprasseur on 05.03.22 at 9:37 pm

#78 Mark

No need to be such a jerk about it…

The data speaks for itself. The absence of profit is real, so are the layoffs.

That said I don’t believe in a US housing crash either. Canada is another problem…

#100 Doug t on 05.03.22 at 9:38 pm

I LOVE THE SMELL OF NAPALM IN THE MORNING

#101 don't poke the bear on 05.03.22 at 9:44 pm

Russian Ruble strongest currency on the planet since the “sanctions”

anyone here want to explain what the Ruble has skyrocketed the last two months? instead of collapsing?
currently trading at 68/usd. up from 130/usd. up from 81/usd day of invasion.

just pointing out facts.

#102 IHCTD9 on 05.03.22 at 9:47 pm

#80 Observer on 05.03.22 at 7:21 pm
SA and IDHCT9,

Are you supportive or not supportive of a woman’s right to choose whether or not to get an abortion?
——

Supportive.

Also supportive of boatloads of restrictions on it. Give them access, and make it difficult. That’s about as good as it’ll ever get for National sentiment.

And if I want to send a trucker convoy to Ottawa, you lefties are going to have to suck it up.

#103 Morrey on 05.03.22 at 9:52 pm

Let pestilence and the plague fall upon Canada. And high interste rates. Let the financial pain visit those spoiled young moistens. nothing like hardship to steel one’s vision of reality!

#104 DON on 05.03.22 at 10:07 pm

#76 Quintilian on 05.03.22 at 7:13 pm
#46 vanreal on 05.03.22 at 5:24 pm
“What Garth isn’t saying is that home sale in Vancouver were 1.5% above the 10 year average for April. Again it’s all in how you read the numbers. Lies, damn lies and statistics” “

Van Unreal, you have a problem, luckily it can be treated with some degree of success.

You suffer from Comfabulation.

**************

ha ha ha…good one.

#105 IHCTD9 on 05.03.22 at 10:17 pm

#39 crowdedelevatorfartz on 05.03.22 at 4:37 pm
@#26 IHCTD9
” the TD9 will be taking a one-way trip to Crawler Valhalla. ”

+++

Damn!
Just when I was getting used to typing that moniker.
Are you sure you want rid of the various functioning relics that run on the precious juice?
“Road warrior”?
——

Yeah everyone has had trouble with it ha!

I got lots more juice burners to choose from still. The TD is the heaviest of the collectibles so unfortunately it got the nod to meet the big crusher in the sky.

I think I’m going to change handles, but not announce it to see who can figure me out first.

Shouldn’t be too hard :)

#106 the Jaguar on 05.03.22 at 10:18 pm

@#98 crowdedelevatorfartz on 05.03.22 at 9:30 pm
Apparently reading and comprehension isn’t your strongest trait.

I’m pro choice.
///
So am I and apparently your comprehension is nil, but I already know that from your constant incessant obsession with everyone and anyone you deem to be a ‘dictator’ while displaying no knowledge of the facts that lead up to the current crisis past or present. Yours is a very narrow focus.
Why exactly is abortion such a hot button issue when birth control since the 1960’s should have reduced the issue to the back burner? Maybe because some use abortion as a method of birth control, and I know at least one hospital nurse who confirms this for me. My comment has nothing to do with a woman’s right to choose ( guess what CEF, I have a vagina and you don’t in case you missed my previous posts), it has everything to do with why this issue continues to be brought up as relevant in political discourse including cratering leaders in the Conservative Party in Canada.

Take the pill, observe abstinence vis a vis your religious principles, and if you do happen to find yourself pregnant by way of accident or misfortune know you have the right to choose. But please stop treating women like brainless victims who found themselves in a Britney Spears moment saying ‘Ooops, I did it again”. It’s called personal responsibility for your actions.
Women didn’t have this choice in the 1950’s, but they sure as hell have had it for the past 50+ years.
And paying for someone’s fifth or sixth abortion because they exercise no personal responsibility when health care costs are rising is an unreasonable burden on taxpayers. Did I mention this is the year 2022? Not 1950?

Oh. And Ponzi. Lots quality posters have left or post very infrequently. Too bad because they used to offer some insight. I don’t need to name them because if they are reading they know who they are. It’s too bad Garth doesn’t offer a private chat room option. But this disclaimer seems to have gone out the window some time ago. ” Abusive, obscene or disrespectful commenters will not be published”.

Bye Garth. Will likely still read occasionally but stop at the comments describing the animal photo. It’s truly become a swamp.

Jaguar signing off. I’ll return to my front row seat to everything you write about daily.

#107 Doug in London on 05.03.22 at 10:22 pm

@LG, post #12:
Boomers received good educations, and are well educated.
————————————————————
I’m a Boomer myself and agree somewhat, but not fully. I first started investing in equities, in the form of mutual funds, back in the spring of 1990. I figured that, with stock markets down it would be a good time to start buying. I figured that every time the markets drop it will be a good time to buy more. I also figured that, if everyone did this than this strategy wouldn’t work and figured the reason why it wouldn’t work is because my generation is more educated than ever before and would also see this pattern. Here we are, 32 years later, and have experienced many corrections and the same thing happens. A lot of people still bail out when markets are down, not what I would expect from the most educated generation in history.

#108 Midnight’s on 05.03.22 at 10:30 pm

DELETED

#109 HAPPY HOUSING CRASH EVERYONE! on 05.03.22 at 10:38 pm

There’s going to be a significant increase in the number of Audis and Range Rovers on used car lots in the near future.

HHCE!

#110 BCWally on 05.03.22 at 10:42 pm

I made the mistake of looking at the math on this, and that kid might just be right. My guess is because the interest rate starts so low to begin with.
I never had a mortgage, just built my own house out in a rural area. Don’t get excited, had six kids and stayed poor but will be surrounded by love in old age. (Worth a lot).
Ran in to the Greater Fool blog later in life and found financial salvation, but that’s another story.
So let’s say 500K standard mortgage 25 years at 2%. Yeah I know no where near the city but hey small town BC.
OK, $2217 and change a month, that works. Down to $418,851.18 after five years to boot!
Whoops, renewing at 7%. Monthlies renew at an astonishing 52% higher at $3222 and change if you have to use the 20 year amortization. Even if I can cut it I’m only down to $360,735 and change after five very long years of payments! And no Mexico in winter!
Sell the boat and trailer? Make the kids work? Nah let’s re-amortize.
What do you mean we can’t re-amortize for 35 years to keep the same monthly payment amount?
Unless that government of Canada mortgage calculator I used doesn’t work…

#111 Linda on 05.03.22 at 10:44 pm

#52 ‘Non’ – looked up the news reference regarding the roofing issue. You left out some important info. What the NDP is promising is to continue to fund a $3K rebate for replacing hail damaged roofs with ‘resilient’ roofs. There is/was a program in place, but it was oversubscribed & ran out of money, so some 1,500 applicants on the wait list are SOL. Further, the article mentions that those communities in the NE were first in line but the rebate was open to all residents. Hence the oversubscription. Rebates for building upgrades are nothing new – think energy efficiency programs etc. I’d add at $3K per & 1,500 applicants the cost of providing said rebate would be 4.5 million – not billions. In addition the NDP noted how home insurance costs have increased dramatically. I can testify to that, as our home insurance has increased over 60% over the past couple of years & not because we made a claim. All these disasters are having a flow through effect so if providing a rebate to mitigate such claims will keep rates down I’d say it is to everyone’s benefit.

#112 DON on 05.03.22 at 10:48 pm

I think the Pope is a pretty smart guy in his assessment of the situation.

Meanwhile, lives are lost while our World leaders play the part of incompetence. The news isn’t helping either, sound bites from idiots for the most part…with the goal being sensationalism at the expense of the truth.

#113 Ronaldo on 05.03.22 at 10:48 pm

#26 IHCTD9 on 05.03.22 at 3:54 pm

I guess I’ll have to think up a new handle.
=================================
How about DITCHtheD9.

#114 The Regulator on 05.03.22 at 10:49 pm

# 106 – The Jaguar : Not only will I miss your comments, but I think I love you ;)

#115 IHCTD9 on 05.03.22 at 10:51 pm

#72 Observer on 05.03.22 at 7:03 pm

^^^^^^^^^^
Strange comment.

————-

“#113 Observer on 05.03.22 at 10:12 am

…If it intimidates the court into changing its mind, that can only be a good thing.”

^^^^^^^^
Insane comment.

#116 Ponzius Pilatus on 05.03.22 at 10:59 pm

Stanley Cup.
Turned on the Tevee to watch a boxing match.
And a hockey game broke out.
Very entertaining.
Best sport on earth.

#117 Tom from Mississauga on 05.03.22 at 11:06 pm

Garth, when are you going to do something on demographics? I know you’re knowledgeable on. Been stuck learning it from Peter Zeihan (who actually predicted the Russian invasion). Have a listen when he spoke to Business In Vancouver.
https://youtu.be/xD-pj6i4b8A

#118 IHCTD9 on 05.03.22 at 11:42 pm

#47 Downward Slope on 05.03.22 at 5:24 pm
#26 IHCTD9 on 05.03.22 at 3:54 pm

I guess I’ll have to think up a new handle.

///////////////

How about ‘Yappy’.

Or maybe ‘Am I repeating myself’

or ‘If I said it once I’ve said it a million times’
————- –

I hear ya. It’s tough being a Trudeau fanboi these days. Taking all this crap, and not being able to dispute a single point. Over and over again. Sucks. Partisanship ain’t easy when your boy turns out to be a flaming nimrod, eh homie?

Say, did I mention that a bro and I kept track of our tax returns and Trudeau handouts since 2015? We quit counting at around a quarter million. One Quarter of a Million Dollars. That’s pretty insane isn’t it? We never got that kind of free-deau when Chrétien, Martin, and Harper were running the show, that’s for damn sure!

Man, the local YAMAHA dealership is happy, I can tell you that! Emperor Naruhito started sending me 66’ers of Shōchū for Christmas a few years back in thanks for the much needed GDP bump. Of course, I sent them along to Trudeau. He’s the real reason Japan’s trade deficit has been shrinking for the last 6.5 years :)

Anyway, keep voting Trudeau. I thank you, and so does Japan, the USA, Germany, and Puerto Rico (I’m a white Rum guy).

#119 Observer on 05.03.22 at 11:47 pm

115 IHCTD9 on 05.03.22 at 10:51 pm
#72 Observer on 05.03.22 at 7:03 pm
#60 IHCTD9 on 05.03.22 at 6:25 pm
#28 Observer on 05.03.22 at 4:05 pm

SA and IHCTD9,

It’s quite telling when you expresses more concern over HOW the public found out about the Supreme Court draft opinion to overturn Roe v Wade, than WHAT THIS COULD MEAN for women’s rights.
———

Now’s not the time to light your hair on fire. Save the BBQ starter fluid for when R+W is actually scrapped, and abortion is actually illegal in the US (which won’t happen).

I know you’re all freaked out right now, but it’s no biggie. A few Molotov cocktails through the Judge’s living room window should produce a positive outcome.

^^^^^^^^^^
Strange comment.

————-

…If it intimidates the court into changing its mind, that can only be a good thing.”

Insane comment.

^^^^^^^^^^^^^^

Not at all “insane”, but perhaps not clearly articulated.

I suppose I should have put quotes around the word “intimidates” . To lazy to look back, but I think I was purposely paroting back the same word used by a commenter I was responding to – I do that a lot.

What would be a more accurate way to express my thoughts would be to subsitute the word “incentivizes” for “intimidates” as in hopefully this leak will result in the judges changing their minds.

Nothing insane about that hopefulness, unless you are the type of person who wants to make abortion “really hard” for a woman to get rather than a private matter between a woman and her physician.

#120 Michael in-north-york on 05.03.22 at 11:59 pm

#87 Ponzius Pilatus on 05.03.22 at 8:12 pm

Once Putin declares War on Ukraine, he can call up about to 1 million reserves.
===

He cannot arm 1 million of soldiers. He can’t even feed so many of them in the field.

His cronies got luxury yachts for themselves, those yachts are smaller than an air carrier but bigger than a modern cruiser. Enrichment of the cronies was the main goal of all government programs, including the military programs. Noone there was preparing for a lengthy war.

#121 Michael in-north-york on 05.04.22 at 12:04 am

#101 don’t poke the bear on 05.03.22 at 9:44 pm

Russian Ruble strongest currency on the planet since the “sanctions”
===

No surprise, sanctions block the imports into the country. Some imports are banned by the western nations, and some by the Russian government in the attempt to strike back. Hence, less demand for foreign currencies.

That doesn’t make the residents happy. Prices on many consumer items are up 30-40%.

#122 Raging Old Guy on 05.04.22 at 12:09 am

Trudeau just blew through a trillion and that could have done some good in Canada in so many ways. Instead we blame the Boomers? Where is the legacy of Trudeaus spend? Where are the hospitals, universities, roads, airports, booming resource and manufacturing sectors? Where are the hubs of intellectual prowess? Is everyone on drugs these days? It’s Trudeaus fault we’re in this mess. Borrow and spend by a guy who can’t do simple math. Unless you’re finger is made of jello, point it at the culprit who is 100% of the misery index.

#123 Midnight’s on 05.04.22 at 1:16 am

Why do Central Banks raise rates?
To lower them, lmbo.

Why were Central Banks created?
To control inflation, lmbo.

#124 PeterfromCalgary on 05.04.22 at 1:33 am

Indonesia has banned palm oil exports to protect it’s consumer from higher cooking oil costs. This is very bad for global food inflation.

#125 dosouth on 05.04.22 at 2:58 am

Just last month I took advantage of one of my banks 2% fee for 10 months @ 0% to do a bit of investing. (Don’t use just one or two banks, use them and the Credit Unions. Been using whomever offers me the best on whatever product I am looking for for decades and it has worked.)

Won’t see those offers again anytime soon…..

#126 Dharma Bum on 05.04.22 at 7:41 am

#124 Peter from Calgary

Indonesia has banned palm oil exports to protect it’s consumer from higher cooking oil costs.
——————————————————————————————————-

In so doing, they are saving millions of lives.

Palm oil is the leading cause of death.

In more ways than one.

https://theconversation.com/how-palm-oil-became-the-worlds-most-hated-most-used-fat-source-161165

#127 Dharma Bum on 05.04.22 at 7:46 am

#106 The Jaguar

It’s truly become a swamp.
———————————————————————————————————

That’s why we all need this guy back!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YgwSMumt-ek

DRAIN THE SWAMP!

Sunny and River will miss you, Jag.

#128 crowdedelevatorfartz on 05.04.22 at 8:38 am

@#106 The jag

Soooo,
After all the long winded verbiage.

You’re happy the Republican Christian Right stuffed the US Supreme Court with enough bible thumpers to turn the clock back 50 years.
Gotcha

#129 Steven Rowlandson on 05.04.22 at 8:42 am

“a Canadian financial outfit forecast mortgages could hit 7%. “That,” moaned a homeless moister, “is apocalyptic.””

The house horny and profligate governments are not ready for 20%+ rates on their debts are they?

If you don’t have liquid collateral equal to or greater than your debt you shouldn’t borrow so much as a cent.
Besides borrowing is habit forming.

#130 crowdedelevatorfartz on 05.04.22 at 8:47 am

Will Putin save the West’s dithering politicians the trouble?
Will this inevitably escalate?

Will his navy or air force sink a Nato shipment of arms in international waters to “get this party started”?

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/russia-says-it-disables-ukrainian-railway-stations-used-transport-western-2022-05-04/

#131 Bezengy on 05.04.22 at 8:59 am

I see even some CRA employees are getting tired of the incompetence and corruption within their own organization. If we want more revenue to balance our budget, perhaps we should start with the tax cheats and criminals?

https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/cra-internal-battle-secre-tax-deal-global-company-contravened-policy-1.6438703

#132 NO BID on 05.04.22 at 9:28 am

Where are the sold signs? Several properties nearby were listed with a reasonable price with the pompous Realtor lingo, “bids will close on May 2nd at 12 noon”.

What bids? They have seemingly dried up. The listings are coming out of the woodwork with all the stories that friends of ours sold their house for 150k over list price and are retiring.

Well that is it, we are all going to cash in, hit pay dirt and sell our house. To whom, the mysterious bidder?

#133 IHCTD9 on 05.04.22 at 9:28 am

#119 Observer on 05.03.22 at 11:47 pm

Nothing insane about that hopefulness, unless you are the type of person who wants to make abortion “really hard” for a woman to get rather than a private matter between a woman and her physician.
___

Hahaha – I see you are slowly trying to sneak away from what you said yesterday. “Hopefulness” was not the word you said homie – the word was “intimidation”. And yes, intimidating a SC Justice is what insane people allow time for in their heads.

Using intimidation to install your personal version of Justice is what Lunatics do. The history books are full of them. Many ended up dead and desecrated at the hands of their own Citizenry.

You should be more careful where you let your mind wander.

#134 IHCTD9 on 05.04.22 at 9:52 am

#113 Ronaldo on 05.03.22 at 10:48 pm
#26 IHCTD9 on 05.03.22 at 3:54 pm

I guess I’ll have to think up a new handle.
=================================

How about DITCHtheD9.
_______________________________

I only wish I had a D9 (CAT) – that’d be a much bigger payout at the scrapyard! Alas, mine is a lowly TD9 (International), 10 tons compared to a D9 at 55 tons.

Ponzie has been taking to calling me “…TD0”. That will actually fit well soon, as the 9 will soon be 0, ie – a couple truckloads worth of toaster ovens.

#135 Gertie Braun on 05.04.22 at 10:05 am

DELETED

#136 Shawn on 05.04.22 at 10:21 am

Down with Aggresive Corporate Tax Avoidance

#131 Bezengy on 05.04.22 at 8:59 am
I see even some CRA employees are getting tired of the incompetence and corruption within their own organization. If we want more revenue to balance our budget, perhaps we should start with the tax cheats and criminals?

https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/cra-internal-battle-secre-tax-deal-global-company-contravened-policy-1.6438703

**************************
The story is about an unnamed presumably Canadian global corporation using the Irish tax haven to avoid Canadian income tax and Canada Revenue bending the rules to facilitate it.

This is disgusting.

As a citizen it cheats me.

As an investor I do not trust managements of companies that use tax havens. I figure that if they are willing to basically cheat the tax man today they will likely be willing to cheat me as owner tomorrow.

#137 crowdedelevatorfartz on 05.04.22 at 10:25 am

I see Will Smith has started a trend…..

https://www.cbc.ca/news/entertainment/hollywood-chappelle-incident-1.6440751

Not a good time to be a stand up comedian with non pc jokes..

#138 Sail Away on 05.04.22 at 10:33 am

Ponzie, you did something wise a few months ago and requested I tell you when it is a good time to buy Costco.

Right now isn’t bad.

Keep this up and you may finally succeed with that investing puzzle.

#139 Sail Away on 05.04.22 at 10:44 am

#119 Observer on 05.03.22 at 11:47 pm

I suppose I should have put quotes around the word “intimidates” .

What would be a more accurate way to express my thoughts would be to subsitute the word “incentivizes” for “intimidates”

———-

Oh, genius. As in: ‘See if cutting off his little finger will ‘incentivize’ him to change his mind.’

Or, ‘It’s not intimidation. Just do what I say and your family doesn’t get hurt. Call it an ‘incentive’.

If it helps, I call my big hammer the ‘persuader’.

#140 Yukon Elvis on 05.04.22 at 10:45 am

The Canadian dollar is trading at .78 USD
The Ukrainian hryvnia is trading at .034 USD
The Russian Ruble is trading at .015 USD
As of this morning.

#141 DON on 05.04.22 at 10:50 am

#121 Michael in-north-york on 05.04.22 at 12:04 am
#101 don’t poke the bear on 05.03.22 at 9:44 pm

Russian Ruble strongest currency on the planet since the “sanctions”
===

No surprise, sanctions block the imports into the country. Some imports are banned by the western nations, and some by the Russian government in the attempt to strike back. Hence, less demand for foreign currencies.

That doesn’t make the residents happy. Prices on many consumer items are up 30-40%.

*****************

How much have our prices in the West increased?

Doesn’t make our residents happy either.

Financial warfare anyone.

#142 DON on 05.04.22 at 10:52 am

#140 Yukon Elvis on 05.04.22 at 10:45 am
The Canadian dollar is trading at .78 USD
The Ukrainian hryvnia is trading at .034 USD
The Russian Ruble is trading at .015 USD
As of this morning.

******
Why the CDN so low in a commodity boom?

#143 Observer on 05.04.22 at 10:54 am

#133 IHCTD9 on 05.04.22 at 9:28 am

Hahaha – I see you are slowly trying to sneak away from what you said yesterday. “Hopefulness” was not the word you said homie – the word was “intimidation”. And yes, intimidating a SC Justice is what insane people allow time for in their heads.

Using intimidation to install your personal version of Justice is what Lunatics do. The history books are full of them. Many ended up dead and desecrated at the hands of their own Citizenry.

You should be more careful where you let your mind wander.

^^^^^^^^^^^^^^
Just can’t let the one word go eh? Context is irrelevant? Mind reading is your secret talent?

Methinks you are deflecting from the most egregious misdeed which is NOT the leaking of the draft, nor that it might make the judges rethink their regressive stance, nor my forgetting to put quotes around “intimidates”, but rather the fact that you think abortions should be “really hard to get”.

You are using the same deflect and attack move as those who are acting all up in arms over the leak but could care less what this change in law would do to the rights of women and the degradation to democracy that it threatens.

You should be ashamed, not me. I should just be more careful in my writing and when I use others words back at them, need to remember to put them in quotations.

Anyway for your reviewing pleasure, below is the comment from the poster who first used the word “intimidates” and my response paroting their same language (civil unrest, intimidates) back at them:

#113 Observer on 05.03.22 at 10:12 am
#108 Senator Bluto on 05.03.22 at 9:02 am
The Americans may have just taken a huge step towards a second Civil War today. Apparently a law clerk on the Supreme Court leaked a confidential draft opinion overturning Roe v. Wade.

Regardless of your personal opinions on abortion, leaking of this document is an unforgiveable violation of the Court, and obviously done to sow political unrest and intimidate the Court into changing its mind.

It seems to be a recurring theme that the political left, whether in the US or Canada, operates in a world without guard rails. There is no norm to be respected, no civility to be regarded, no War Measures Act too egregious to be unexploited for political gain.

^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^
Give your head a shake. If there is civil unrest over this barbaric plot to deprive women of their rights, the blame is not with the left. Good for the clerk for leaking that document. If it intimidates the court into changing its mind, that can only be a good thing.

Weird how “freedom fighters” have a fit over vaccine mandates but are fine with forcing women to continue unwanted pregnancies.

#144 IHCTD9 on 05.04.22 at 10:56 am

#132 NO BID on 05.04.22 at 9:28 am
Where are the sold signs? Several properties nearby were listed with a reasonable price with the pompous Realtor lingo, “bids will close on May 2nd at 12 noon”.
____

Locally, all over town; folks are trying to grab their last chance at winning the Great Canadian Real Estate Bubble before it sinks over the horizon. All kinds of super overpriced listings, mostly with GTA Agents (2 hours away), no signs anywhere.

I’ll be glad when everyone gives up. The sooner the MLS comprises mostly homes that actually need to sell and are priced that way – the better.

#145 DON on 05.04.22 at 10:59 am

#136 Shawn on 05.04.22 at 10:21 am
Down with Aggresive Corporate Tax Avoidance

#131 Bezengy on 05.04.22 at 8:59 am
I see even some CRA employees are getting tired of the incompetence and corruption within their own organization. If we want more revenue to balance our budget, perhaps we should start with the tax cheats and criminals?

https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/cra-internal-battle-secre-tax-deal-global-company-contravened-policy-1.6438703

**************************
The story is about an unnamed presumably Canadian global corporation using the Irish tax haven to avoid Canadian income tax and Canada Revenue bending the rules to facilitate it.

This is disgusting.

As a citizen it cheats me.

As an investor I do not trust managements of companies that use tax havens. I figure that if they are willing to basically cheat the tax man today they will likely be willing to cheat me as owner tomorrow.

************
Makes you wonder how many other instances?

#146 Observer on 05.04.22 at 11:01 am

Garth, my apologies for using up so much real estate on your financial blog the past couple days regarding the US Roe versus Wade mess. It’s generous of you to allow so many of us to go so off topic here. I will try to refrain from further commenting on this issue.

#147 Ponzius Pilatus on 05.04.22 at 11:04 am

140 Yukon Elvis on 05.04.22 at 10:45 am
The Canadian dollar is trading at .78 USD
The Ukrainian hryvnia is trading at .034 USD
The Russian Ruble is trading at .015 USD
As of this morning.
——————
So, time for some arbitrage?
What say you, Sailo?
Or save the money for a “hryvnia” operation, that you said you need?
Before they ban them in the states.

#148 IHCTD9 on 05.04.22 at 11:05 am

#139 Sail Away on 05.04.22 at 10:44 am

If it helps, I call my big hammer the ‘persuader’.
____

I got one of those too. It comes out when things don’t go the way I want them to, or when I want to speed things up a little and don’t care about the collateral damage.

#149 Ponzius Pilatus on 05.04.22 at 11:19 am

#137 crowdedelevatorfartz on 05.04.22 at 10:25 am
I see Will Smith has started a trend…..

https://www.cbc.ca/news/entertainment/hollywood-chappelle-incident-1.6440751

Not a good time to be a stand up comedian with non pc jokes..
———————
Chappelle is a good comedian, but his shtick is getting a little tiresome.
A comedian past his prime?
Chris Rock was there, too.
So, you gotta wonder.

#150 DON on 05.04.22 at 11:21 am

“Bank of Canada Seeks to Earn Public Trust in Inflation Fight”….headline by bloomberg.

Ha ha ha…ah ha ha ha ha, ah ha ha.

Next headline will be

‘Media oulets seek to Earn Public Trust by researching before publishing’

#151 Birfgulk on 05.04.22 at 11:36 am

70 k on 05.03.22 at 6:59 pm
Legendary investor Warren Buffett is famous for saying “Only when the tide goes out do you discover who’s been swimming naked.” I’m afraid it’s going to look like a national nudist colony all wet”

With those ice cold northern waters real estate won’t be the only thing suffering from shrinkage

#152 unbalanced on 05.04.22 at 11:50 am

A new handle. Hmmmm. What rhymes with Sail Away?Hmmm. Go Away, Stay Away,Lay Away. Hmmmmm

#153 T Rex and the dinosaur clique on 05.04.22 at 11:58 am

I read this with amusement each day. There seems to be an ongoing disconnect in regard to how markets work and how housing effects that situation.

Just had a neighbour up in cottage country tell me his deal fell through. The purchaser cannot close. They don’t have the money.

Reason? Stock market. Had to put a bunch of money in and pull money out as some complicated thing they had going on with options blew up on them when the market corrected. They are apparently pulling all their cash out to pay off some debts that have interest rates that are now too high to service.

So the result is a cottage does not sell, and a bunch of cash gets pulled out of the markets to pay off someone’s debt.

Many people I know in Toronto are doing the same thing, pulling their cash out of the markets. Reason? Well they now have higher payments on their HELOCs and variables, and they have to pay them down. So again, money gets pulled out of the markets.

A housing downturn will result in equity markets taking a bath. The reasoning is quite simple. You can’t live in a stock market portfolio, and everyone knows this. So when your payments on your house go up, you sell your stocks to pay down your house.

Everyone does that. No one ever sells their house to pay down their stocks.

It may be right and it may be wrong, but that is not really the argument. The turtle might make the wrong decision when it dives down to avoid the boat rather than swimming out of the way, but how could it know about propellers?

If housing crashes, the markets will crash with it. Because people are going to get their money, to bail out their houses, by selling their stocks.

Naive. The S&P 500 or the commodity-laden TSX have no direct correlation with the price of a house in Waterloo or Burnaby. Big fail, dino. – Garth

#154 Old Boot on 05.04.22 at 12:57 pm

#106 the Jaguar on 05.03.22 at 10:18 pm

… ( guess what CEF, I have a vagina and you don’t in case you missed my previous posts)…

***************

If you have a vagina (and by that I don’t mean a Franken-fanny, or in a jar on your desk), why are you shilling for the patriarchy by demanding that society maintain any form of control over the reason why women and their bodies have always been controlled?

Women produce all the good little soldiers and worker bees.

All female-centered forms of birth control have health implications, and their primary purpose is to enable men to maintain sexual access to women who would otherwise issue a firm “no”.

Your arrogant belief that women who need abortions are somehow found lacking in moral character, is typical of the fascist right wing theological belief in medical-industrial superiority over biology.

There’s a name for women who’ve never needed an abortion:

“Lucky”

Don’t let the door hit ya where evolutionary forces split ya.

#155 jess on 05.04.22 at 1:03 pm

worse than putin? methane

the bubbles at easy lake Alaska fossil methane

how is it getting through earths crust geological fault lines fewer than 5miles from the lake How sonar reveals a 50foot hole but what about looker deeper into the perma frost low frequency vlf wave measurements

In the Arctic, enormous releases of methane, a potent greenhouse gas, threaten the climate.

Colossal explosions shake a remote corner of the Siberian tundra, leaving behind massive craters. In Alaska, a huge lake erupts with bubbles of inflammable gas. Scientists are discovering that these mystifying phenomena add up to a ticking time bomb, as long-frozen permafrost melts and releases vast amounts of methane, a potent greenhouse gas. What are the implications of these dramatic developments in the Arctic? Scientists and local communities alike are struggling to grasp the scale of the methane threat and what it means for our climate future.

#156 Summertime on 05.04.22 at 1:09 pm

BoC will have my trust when I see rates of 15-18 % as to equal the current inflation.

Otherwise I regard them as charlatans.

#157 jess on 05.04.22 at 1:19 pm

https://www.occrp.org/en/investigations/dubai-uncovered-data-leak-exposes-how-criminals-officials-and-sanctioned-politicians-poured-money-into-dubai-real-estate

…loose residency requirements and “few questions asked” approach to regulation enables questionable figures to use it as a home away from home, a place to launder their illicit gains through real estate, or simply to store their wealth.

“Real estate is unique when it comes to money laundering because, unlike any other form of money laundering, you actually can live in and do business through your money laundering,” said Jodi Vittori, a professor at Georgetown University and expert on illicit finance.

https://www.occrp.org/en/investigations/dubai-uncovered-data-leak-exposes-how-criminals-officials-and-sanctioned-politicians-poured-money-into-dubai-real-estate

the global enablers of corporate tax abuse and financial secrecy.
========

UPDATE 1-Russia’s central bank prepares for Otkritie bank sale
https://www.reuters.com › article › russia-banks-otkritie…
Aug 3, 2021 — Otkritie, which was bailed out by the central bank four years ago, is on track for an initial public offering in May 2022, the bank’s president …
Otkritie, once Russia’s biggest private bank by assets.

Italy’s UniCredit among suitors for Russia’s Otkritie Bank …
https://www.reuters.com › business › finance › italys-unic…

Jan 11, 2022 — The central bank has said it was looking at an initial public offering or a sale to a strategic investor to cut its stake in Otkritie, …
The sale of Otkritie would mark the end of the central bank’s dual role as both regulator and owner of banks, a position criticed by some in the banking sector. It sold its controlling stake in Russia’s biggest bank Sberbank to the government last year.

Russian suspends plan to sell Bank Otkritie amid Ukraine …
https://www.retailbankerinternational.com › news › ban…
Mar 14, 2022 — Russia has decided to put on hold the plans to sell Bank Otkritie, which is recognised as an important bank by the country’s authorities.

============

RCB’s ownership structure changed on February 24, 2022,the same people were in charge.Mitarva is owned by two secretive trusts, making it impossible to know who ultimately controls it, though it is reportedly owned by members of RCB’s management.The remaining 46.29 percent continued to be owned by VTB until these shares, too, were sold to Crendaro and Mitarva in February.
Cypriot law allows companies to be owned by trusts and nominee shareholders, keeping the identities of the real owners hidden. Companies are also quick, easy, and cheap to set up on the island via its large industry of lawyers and formation agents. Last year, the transparency campaign group Tax Justice Network ranked Cyprus 14th in the world on its “corporate tax haven index,” ahead of places like Panama, Mauritius and the Isle of Man that are known for corporate secrecy.

In October 2020, Cyprus’s government canceled the controversial program, which had been criticized for selling citizenship to criminals, after an undercover investigation by Al Jazeera exposed politicians helping obtain a passport for a fictitious person with a criminal record.

#158 Philco on 05.04.22 at 1:25 pm

#153 T Rex and the dinosaur clique on 05.04.22 at 11:58 am
If housing crashes, the markets will crash with it. Because people are going to get their money, to bail out their houses, by selling their stocks.
——————————————
Why would people sell their homes? LOL And do what live on the street? You know what the cost of selling and moving alone is?
Please do tell….

#159 Ponzius Pilatus on 05.04.22 at 1:29 pm

About leaks (not the one on the roof).
Not sure what the hoopla is.
Apparently, there are good and evil leaks.
In a time when propaganda reigns and facts are scarce, shouldn’t we embrace all leaks?
And if you want to avoid a leak on the roof, regular checkups should be maintained.
Specially now, if you want to sell the house, and no inspection offers are a thing of the past.

#160 millmech on 05.04.22 at 1:33 pm

I wonder if ZIM is going back to $90, currently $63 bought in at $52,let us see where this goes.

#161 Quintilian on 05.04.22 at 1:34 pm

#153 T Rex and the dinosaur clique on 05.04.22 at 11:58 am
If housing crashes, the markets will crash with it. Because people are going to get their money, to bail out their houses, by selling their stocks.

“Naive. The S&P 500 or the commodity-laden TSX have no direct correlation with the price of a house in Waterloo or Burnaby. Big fail, dino. – Garth”

You are wrong Garth and Rex makes a valid point.

The “Wealth Effect” has in fact infected the S&P.

The curmudgeons have been led to believe they are smarter and “richer than they think”.

Their stupidity will eventually catch up to them, and will help exacerbate the long overdue and deep correction when they start to panic.

You guys have no idea what you’re talking about. Canada has a 70% home ownership rate and less than 10% of the population own equities directly in self-directed accounts, mostly concentrated in the wealthier quartile where mortgages are rare. Keep your day jobs. – Garth

#162 Bill on 05.04.22 at 1:47 pm

DELETED (Anti-vaccine)

#163 crowdedelevatorfartz on 05.04.22 at 1:56 pm

Regular gas in The Lower Brain Land this morning
$2.11.9

War with Russia?
Uppa uppa uppa.

#164 SoggyShorts on 05.04.22 at 2:05 pm

#152 unbalanced on 05.04.22 at 11:50 am
A new handle. Hmmmm. What rhymes with Sail Away?Hmmm. Go Away, Stay Away,Lay Away. Hmmmmm
****************
Look out Eminem, this guy is the next Rap God with his rhyming genius on full display!
I mean who would have thought to rhyme Away with Away, or Away and then that final stroke of genius: “Away”? Amazing.

#165 Steven Rowlandson on 05.04.22 at 2:49 pm

Here is the skinny on the 36%+ eurozone producer price inflation rate.
https://kingworldnews.com/eurozone-inflation-hits-a-jaw-dropping-36-8/

What does an investor need to compensate for inflation at that rate? 42%?

#166 Philco on 05.04.22 at 2:56 pm

AMazing never ending chatter on worrying about stock and home prices? Do we ever get tired?
I don’t matter unless ya did something really stupid and I’m sure many have but their prolly not on this blob blog.
Personally I grabbed some more ZPR and DIR/UN the last couple days. Looked like a sale to me.

#167 Old Boot on 05.04.22 at 2:58 pm

It seems the market approves of the half point jump in rates. Was it anticipating something more robust?

#168 unbalanced on 05.04.22 at 2:59 pm

It’s OK Soggy, I’m in a league of my own. Sorry

#169 Hillbilly elegy... on 05.04.22 at 3:04 pm

J.D. Vance rocks in OHIO, he is da man he is based..

Take that Gartho..

#170 Steven Rowlandson on 05.04.22 at 3:14 pm

Re: #131

If we want more revenue to balance our budget, perhaps we should start with the tax cheats and criminals?

That is precisely the kind of thinking done by those who will not accept real spending cuts that will make a difference. Cutting spending is the real solution and it is a poison pill for irresponsible government. You see if government grabbed everything and sold the people into slavery but didn’t slash their spending they would stilll not avoid deficits and debt increases. Fiscal rectitude is something that does not happen by chance is happens by a deliberate decision to restrict spending to much less than income and do it year after year, decade after decade until the debt is paid and then to nail it down one needs to save until government doesn’t need to rely on taxes so much. Perhaps more importantly one needs to bar political parties inclined to borrow and spend from being on the ballot or being in government. As nasty as such a sacrifice would be it would be even worse to do it for nothing.

#171 Steven Rowlandson on 05.04.22 at 3:16 pm

Re: #131

If we want more revenue to balance our budget, perhaps we should start with the tax cheats and criminals?

That is precisely the kind of thinking done by those who will not accept real spending cuts that will make a difference. Cutting spending is the real solution and it is a poison pill for irresponsible government. You see if government grabbed everything and sold the people into slavery but didn’t slash their spending they would stilll not avoid deficits and debt increases. Fiscal rectitude is something that does not happen by chance it happens by a deliberate decision to restrict spending to much less than income and do it year after year, decade after decade until the debt is paid and then to nail it down one needs to save until government doesn’t need to rely on taxes so much. Perhaps more importantly one needs to bar political parties inclined to borrow and spend from being on the ballot or being in government. As nasty as such a sacrifice would be it would be even worse to do it for nothing.

#172 the jaguar on 05.04.22 at 3:23 pm

@154 Stop hitting on me, lol

#173 Pelican on 05.04.22 at 9:26 pm

The jaguar
Please don’t stop commenting. There might be some weirdos infiltrating right now but excellent commentators like you are still appreciated. I like your posts along with many others that I read and don’t like the numerous “new” strange handles that appear on this blog. I always enjoy your posts. Hope you will continue.

#174 Tony on 05.05.22 at 1:47 am

Re: #7 Dre on 05.03.22 at 2:24 pm

Same for me and everyone else I know. It seems the Bank of Canada always knows the move the U.S. Fed will make beforehand as seen today. That’s how the Bank of Canada rate hike June 1st became .5 percent instead of .75 percent before the Fed hike May 4th.

#175 Tony on 05.05.22 at 2:49 am

Re: #96 A.C on 05.03.22 at 9:28 pm

Follow the wage gains in America to see if they get into a wage, price spiral or not.