The same, but different

April was cruel. Will May follow?

Here are some voices chirping their opinion. First, what about the stock market? Given that the Fed is on the cusp of a juicy rate increase, the European war rages and China is Covid-stupid, whither the Dow, the S&P and the Nasdaq? Says trader Ed Pennock:

The worst month (April) since 2020…. No one and nothing escaped… This market is much closer to a bottom. Likely hundreds of points. Not thousands. Taking down the FAANG-type stocks was the only way for the indices to correct.

Let’s remember that stocks gained 80% over the last two years, so a give-back of a fifth of that amount is hardly a disaster as a new floor is established. Corrections are good. Healthy. Needed. They blow off excess and re-establish reasonable valuations. This is not a crash. It’s no reset. And given the romping inflation that’s likely to persist in 2022, going to cash pretty much guarantees a loss. So stay the course.

The real personal financial damage comes with leverage. Most people don’t borrow to build financial portfolios. In fact, interest on investment loans is not even deductible when contributing to registered accounts, like RRSPs and TFSAs.

In contrast, shed a tear for those who have borrowed big in the last year or two to buy a property, especially outside the urban core. In a weekend tweet Michelle Makos, a broker/.owner in the eastern GTA flank had this comforting message for clients: “Hang on to your hats, people. Shit is about to get real, and soon.”

The real estate cartels report stats for April this week. They’ll be down. But the numbers will also be blended for the month and hide the rapid de-escalation taking place. It appears valuations have shed a little over 20% from the peak, with most of that coming in the non-urban areas. Mortgage curmudgeon Ron Butler says this is just the start.

His forecast: “SFD in the city down 10-12%. Small homes in small towns that ran up 60% in two years may drop 50%.” Overall the plop will be about 20% in the next few weeks and hardest hit seem to be “townhouses on the fringes.”

In less than a month the Bank of Canada moves again, with markets anticipating a further half-point jump. The chartered bank prime will move closer to 4%, a threshold mortgages have already sailed through. Many young couples now wishing to nest have never seen home loans in this range. Sticker shock has put the brakes on showings. It’s also bringing to an end the unethical practice of realtors listing a home cheap in a bait-and-switch attempt to engender a bidding war. Thank dog for that.

So, it looks like we’re rolling the housing market back to the Spring of 2020. The stock market, in contrast, has retreated by one year. Real estate in Canada rides on $1.7 trillion in debt, a third of which comes due for refinancing this year. Financial portfolios are far less leveraged, but enough investors have margin loans to encourage selling. The two are fundamentally different, but similarly impacted by monetary policy. The real difference is that equity prices are correlated to corporate profits while house prices are correlated to how you feel about things this morning. Smart people know the difference. And in a perfect world, you should own both a house and a B&D portfolio.

What lies ahead?

A year of rate increases, economists say. Odds are financial markets will heal sooner than houses as inflation starts to cool, the Europe war ends (it will, it has to) and China opens again. The Fed and the other CBs may be less aggressive than markets originally feared. We’ll see. In short it appears there is no reason to bail. The doomers are wrong.

Houses will recover, too. But that trip down has just started. Recall in the last rate-induced RE dump it took 13 years for house prices to fully restore (from 1989 to 2002). Many who had purchased with low downs and big loans were forced to bail at a loss.

But let’s end this on a positive note for home-lusty young buyers who think the world is tilting against them.

In the 1980s kids needed a 25% down payment. Today it’s just 5%. Mortgages are still available now for about half the inflation rate. They used to be twice that. Today couples can raid their RRSPs for $70,000 in tax-free down payment money. Soon they’ll be able to save a tax-deductible $80,000 in the new first-time TFSA thingy. There’s a shared-equity mortgage allowing buyers to give over some of their debt to the feds. A tax credit of ten grand helps offset closing costs. Mortgage deferrals are available for when you feel stressed or there’s a life event. Plus you can port, blend or hybrid your home loan. None of that existed in the Olden Days.

It’s not all bad. And you have nobody to blame.

About the picture: “Hearing your call for blog DOG photos, I present to you, Frederick!” writes Keith. “This dapper little dash lives in Calgary and fancies the Red Mile his personal territory. His owner has been a faithful reader and Greater Fool evangelist for well over 10 years. Frederick spends his days luxuriating in various beds, waiting for walks, treats and cuddle sessions. A stubborn miniature dachshund, he generally gets whatever he wants and obviously deserves it.  Thanks for all the articles, free advice, humour and life lessons over the many years. You, your team and the work you do is appreciated!”

150 comments ↓

#1 TurnerNation on 05.02.22 at 2:22 pm

What is next for this occupied country?
If wars are fought over land and if we are in global WW3 (since March 2020) this country with its second largest mass of land, is doomed.

Kanada has for the plunder:
WATER
Fish
Minerals, metals
Oil
Farm land
Power Generation
Forests
Tax slaves
A passive and brainwashed populace.
LAND


The Long Game. Get to know it.

https://www.centuryinitiative.ca/why-100m
“Growing our population to 100 million by 2100

— There is no more news only the Manufacturing of Consent.
Did ya notice we still have a Domestic Passport (QR) code for travel rights?

.Another COVID-19 wave ‘almost baked in’ for the fall: top Ont. science adviser (ctvnews.ca)

.Trudeau Says ‘All Of Us Want To Be Done’ With Restrictions But There Needs To Be Balance (narcity.com)

#2 More Sausages on 05.02.22 at 2:22 pm

Please, more pictures of cute sausages like this one.

#3 Joe Lalonde on 05.02.22 at 2:24 pm

In Canada, we don’t have a supply chain to try to change into an all electric society.
It’s truly a government sponsored program.

https://blazingcatfur.ca/2022/05/02/the-supply-chain-does-not-exist-green-energy-industry-is-in-for-a-rude-awakening/

Without substantial subsidies by our politicians, the environmental program doesn’t exist.

#4 Ray Skunk on 05.02.22 at 2:26 pm

I love a cute sausage!

#5 Mr Fox on 05.02.22 at 2:29 pm

It’s hard to watch though your money dwindling away, even if it’s a B&D portfolio… I’m down ~80k (unrealized) this year and that hurts a lot.
I understand that the market will recover, and that catching the moments when it goes up is extremely important but now psychologically it’s hard.

So don’t look. Problem solved. Seriously, if you do not need the capital immediately, then why are you stressing over it? You know what the long-term outcome will be. – Garth

#6 Joe Lalonde on 05.02.22 at 2:38 pm

With the advanced technology, World War III is totally different and Nations can be wiped out.

https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/russian-tv-warns-britain-can-be-drowned-radioactive-tsunami-single-nuclear-sub-strike

This is what I was warning about earlier on this War will be totally different in using the Oceans as a weapon of massive destruction.
Vessels on the Ocean are a hindrance and not a show of superior strength anymore.

Let’s spend time worrying about stuff we can control, okay? – Garth

#7 Mike on 05.02.22 at 2:39 pm

A weinier served up in a bow tie. Where’s the mustard to go along with the….. thingy? LoL

#8 Penny Henny on 05.02.22 at 2:41 pm

#109 Satori on 05.02.22 at 12:24 pm
Moved to West Kelowna from Vancouver and rental market is terrible!
You do get to a point, and I have been here a month, where you think, gee, ya, maybe I need to buy. Living like a university student, in a basement under a small young family…. that is 80% of what is out there to rent, unless you want to pay 4-5000 a month… realistically, that isn’t in the cards. Then I might as well buy.

One year renting at $2000 a month (if I get one) that is $24000 a year… $54,000 in 2 years…. so if I buy and it goes down, $50,000 or even a $100,000 …. is that so bad???

///////////////

Yeah but in all fairness there is 15 months in that second year.

#9 Terry on 05.02.22 at 2:42 pm

Great post Garth. I usually don’t comment anymore but I just have to say that there are alot of stocks, ETF’s etc…ON SALE right now! I’d do well to pick up some bargains at these prices with my extra cash on the sidelines. I’m just speculating and waiting to see if I can get some better deals over the next few days. I think, my opinion, that we are getting close to a bottom and I save up cash for buying more after market corrections like these.

Stay invested always. Save up cash during the good times and then deploy your stash when the sale prices present themselves. It’s a different way of investing and it works.

Happy investing everyone.

#10 Gerry Fitzgerald on 05.02.22 at 2:46 pm

DELETED

#11 Dave on 05.02.22 at 2:48 pm

Vancouver Island homes are still be advertised above their summer assessments, so the correction doesn’t seem to be happening out west…

Check sale prices, not listed ones. – Garth

#12 pc on 05.02.22 at 2:49 pm

Hi Garth, what is an I Bond and are they available to Canadians? Why are they giving 9.62% interest?

US product. Only a six-month term. – Garth

#13 Waystar Royco investor on 05.02.22 at 2:54 pm

Can couples use a spousal RRSP for the FHB program?

Or do the contributions from the higher earning spouse have to remain in the spousal RRSP for 2 years before it can be withdrawn as part of a down payment?

Attribution applies before three years have passed. – Garth

#14 Mr Fox on 05.02.22 at 2:59 pm

So don’t look. Problem solved. Seriously, if you do not need the capital immediately, then why are you stressing over it? You know what the long-term outcome will be. – Garth

Thank you for your response, I truly appreciate it.
The plan was to buy a house closer to the end of 2022 or next year, depending on the price trend.
So will just keep saving some cash for a down-payment and won’t touch the portfolio.

#15 Dave on 05.02.22 at 3:05 pm

Vancouver Island homes are still be advertised above their summer assessments, so the correction doesn’t seem to be happening out west…

Check sale prices, not listed ones. – Garth

In many cases they’ve sold for higher than list prices. Things really are nuts here.

#16 IHCTD9 on 05.02.22 at 3:08 pm

#86 crowdedelevatorfartz on 05.02.22 at 8:20 am
@#81 Michelle
“Do you remember Conservatives budgets? ”
+++

Yes.

Not one of them DOUBLED our NATIONAL DEBT in two years.
Harper was a prick but he wasn’t a self absorbed, mirror gazing, hyperventilating, spendthrift with delusions of grandeur.
————

I can’t even remember what Harper looks like. I mean, it was so long ago that he was PM. It’s amazing that we still have the occasional Trudeau fanboi out there willing to take the intellectual risk of trying to blame the current shit-show in Canada on him. Sounds like a quick way to get the taste of foot in mouth to me.

I do remember Harper had our deficit down to under 1 billion in 2015 though. So much for that, now we get to feed a 13 figure Trudeau debt service bill – which given our small, highly taxed (with a lot more to come) labour force – is essentially impossible without some kind of austerity measures, and big losses in govy services. Especially now that rates are launching like the space shuttle. Guess that drunken spending orgy during Covid wasn’t such a great plan after all.

Oh well, not my problem. My house is up almost 100% since Trudeau took power, he could have controlled the rocketing prices with some effective fiscal policies, but he never did – and I thank him!

Another thing I thank Trudeau for is taking my paltry 120.00 UCCB payment and turning it into a lottery-like CCB windfall. 5 figure tax-free handouts for 100’s of thousands of Canadian households – just because they reproduced! Hahaha! Who saw that coming? I didn’t need a dime of it since I’m uh, old-school – and budgeted for starting a family before I had kids… so I spent it all at the local YAMAHA dealership and on camo hip waders. Sucks for those who don’t have kids though. They get to foot this bill on top of our unbelievable mountain of new Trudeau debt interest payments, and million dollar houses.

Don’t forget who did this to you kids, I never voted for it.

#17 Paddy on 05.02.22 at 3:11 pm

Michelle Makos scares me….

#18 We aren't worried in Nanaimo on 05.02.22 at 3:11 pm

The tide has surged for many years and will continue to do so. It’s a local thing where only Nanaimo homes go up in value. Kelowna on the other hand needs to watch out. it’s an overpriced smoke-hole.

#19 Linda on 05.02.22 at 3:12 pm

‘Frederick’ looks like a dapper dog about town in his jaunty bow tie:)

“And you have nobody to blame” – Garth, I think you underestimate how easily folks will blame anything & anyone but their own actions for less than favorable outcomes! If RE prices drop post purchase, then the pressure from parents is going to be cited as the reason why the youthful purchasers are in this financial mess. They were forced, forced! to accept downpayment from the Bank of Mom/Pop. Their peers made them bid high to get the ‘best’ place – bragging rights are so very important for oneupmanship, right? So their peers ‘made them do it’. Then those naughty banks lured them in with record low rates. The realtors lured them in with promises of stellar returns. The government lured them in by making it so much easier to buy. Etc. So yes, plenty of blame to spread around, but no blame will attach to the person looking back at you in the mirror…..

#20 Popeye the sailor man on 05.02.22 at 3:13 pm

Condo 1993 in Victoria @9.5% for 136K
Dropped to 105K late 2000 still owed 108K

Drop in Price and underwater even after 7 years of paying.

Took until 2003 or 2004 to go back to what we paid, and likely 2006 or more adjusted for inflation.

#21 I just don't get it on 05.02.22 at 3:21 pm

Why are wait times totally insane – like over 2h – when you dial the CRA and similar gov. Aren’t there more staff in gov and higher pay than ever before. And don’t they all work from home now to make things more efficient.

Y’all maybe know something I missed.

#22 Dave on 05.02.22 at 3:25 pm

Re Nanaimo

Yes, and Nanaimo (Surrey by the Sea) is an over priced S-hole with greasy bikers, drugs and a pulp mill smell

#23 Tom from Mississauga on 05.02.22 at 3:26 pm

Leverage here is risky, agreed, trimmed some margin off today, div yields close to gov bond. War has to end? Biden has to call Putin and that’s never happening.

#24 Gerry Fitzgerald on 05.02.22 at 3:33 pm

We need immigrants to build this great country of ours. We need them to contribute to our pension plans. They are good tenants. What is wrong with saying that?
Every landlord, whether individual or corporation want a good tenant

#25 The joy of steerage on 05.02.22 at 3:36 pm

#22 Dave on 05.02.22 at 3:25 pm

Re Nanaimo

Yes, and Nanaimo (Surrey by the Sea) is an over priced S-hole with greasy bikers, drugs and a pulp mill smell

No wonder sailor boi calls it home…

#26 IHCTD9 on 05.02.22 at 3:41 pm

I quite like those Dachshunds. If a Canine were to ever join the Feline patrolled IH bunker complex, one of these would be high on the list. It’d have to be cool with being ruled by His Majesty though.

#27 Satori on 05.02.22 at 3:43 pm

Penny Henny
Yeah but in all fairness there is 15 months in that second year.
—————
LOL!! Thanks I missed that… :D

#28 april on 05.02.22 at 3:44 pm

#15- Don’t kid yourselves. it has started back East and is now coming here to BC.

#29 Hello from YYC on 05.02.22 at 3:46 pm

I have seen this dog out in Calgary before and yes, he wears the bowtie

#30 SM on 05.02.22 at 3:55 pm

“… as inflation starts to cool” Garth.

Loretta Mester below:

“I expect some higher inflation measures in the next couple of months but that is different from underlying inflation levels reaching 2%”. – Feb. 28, 2021

“I am unconcerned with inflation running away from us.” – April 5, 2021

“I’m not worried about inflation getting out of control.” – May 5, 2021

“The Fed needs inflation expectations and real inflation to rise” – May 6, 2021

“I’d like to see inflation rise to 2% or higher.”– May 14, 2021

“By the end of the year I expect inflation to be between 3.5% and 4%, with a drop in 2022” – Aug. 27, 2021

“Inflation will be little more than 2% in the next years.” – Sept. 24, 2021

Why do we care what a Cleveland banker thinks about Canadian inflation? – Garth

#31 millmech on 05.02.22 at 4:04 pm

Real estate, the safest investment there is!
https://www.reddit.com/r/PersonalFinanceCanada/comments/ugq3y4/homebuyers_set_to_lose_unprotected_deposits_of_up/

#32 JSS on 05.02.22 at 4:06 pm

It’s a wonderful time to buy the S&P500, nasdaq, and/or the Dow. A year down the line, you may regret this lovely moment.

#33 UCC on 05.02.22 at 4:13 pm

How about taking on leverage in your non-registered accounts. The interest on the leverage should be tax deductible. Perhaps this is a good time to take the plunge?

#34 IHCTD9 on 05.02.22 at 4:20 pm

Bunnypatch is going to get a rude awakening. But let’s be frank – it’s the urban specuvestors, mom and pop landlords, and WFH hopefuls that will be receiving the front kick. I listened in to a couple local council meetings over the last year, and the message is clear as a bell – “the buyers aren’t local”.

The only GTA’ers who bought out here post late 2020 that are fine, are the retirees. They don’t have to turn a profit, and they don’t have to move.

#35 Leftover on 05.02.22 at 4:24 pm

#18 We aren’t worried in Nanaimo on 05.02.22 at 3:11 pm
#22 Dave on 05.02.22 at 3:25 pm

Surrey by the Sea, Surrey by the Lake

Why not just move to Surrey?

#36 Republicans on 05.02.22 at 4:25 pm

Millmech, those victims got access to HELOCS. Probably speculators who got burned. No sympathy for them.

#37 SM on 05.02.22 at 4:26 pm

RE: “Why do we care what a Cleveland banker thinks about Canadian inflation? – Garth”

Pick any other FED governor and the narrative is the same. Look at the BoC and the narrative is the same.

As for “Canadian inflation”: how different is it from US inflation? What’s the correlation?

I think my point is made.

Zero relevance. – Garth

#38 TheDood on 05.02.22 at 4:28 pm

#5 Mr Fox on 05.02.22 at 2:29 pm
It’s hard to watch though your money dwindling away, even if it’s a B&D portfolio… I’m down ~80k (unrealized) this year and that hurts a lot.
I understand that the market will recover, and that catching the moments when it goes up is extremely important but now psychologically it’s hard.

So don’t look. Problem solved. Seriously, if you do not need the capital immediately, then why are you stressing over it? You know what the long-term outcome will be. – Garth
_____________________________

LOL! I used to be just like you. G is right, break the habit of looking daily. Stay in for the long game and look every month or so. Market is going up 7 out of 10 days going back decades.

#39 willworkforpickles on 05.02.22 at 4:44 pm

DELETED

#40 dosouth on 05.02.22 at 4:46 pm

#11 Dave on 05.02.22 at 2:48 pm
Vancouver Island homes are still be advertised above their summer assessments, so the correction doesn’t seem to be happening out west…
—————————————————–

Sorry Dave but not so, houses are stalling and high end even more so. BC’s Evalue assessment are just used for tax purposes or Realtors when they want to list a house over the assessed rate.

It’s only worth what one will pay and hey….this place has been on the market for over 60 days in a prestigious part of the island.(realtor has relisted it twice to reduce the DOM)..tides are turning.

Crickets with 5 opens houses so far

#41 IHCTD9 on 05.02.22 at 4:58 pm

#6 Joe Lalonde on 05.02.22 at 2:38 pm
With the advanced technology, World War III is totally different and Nations can be wiped out.

https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/russian-tv-warns-britain-can-be-drowned-radioactive-tsunami-single-nuclear-sub-strike

This is what I was warning about earlier on this War will be totally different in using the Oceans as a weapon of massive destruction.
Vessels on the Ocean are a hindrance and not a show of superior strength anymore.
——-

Repeat after me: “Nukes are un-deployable”. If Putin nuked Britain, that would be the end of Russia and any nation that came to its aid. No one is that stupid, not even Putin. The Western Nuclear arsenal exceeds everything else on Earth combined x10. It can be deployed from any theatre. From anywhere on the planet, land, sea, and air. Russia commits suicide with any nuclear strike on any nation for any reason at any time. Even talking like this might get a few SeaWolf submarines cruising their shores. Russia can’t defend against this. They just won’t do it. It’s talk, nothing more. Russia can’t survive what’s coming for them if they do. Russia is a flea compared to what the USSR was. It would be the end, and cast the West in iron as an ultra-superpower for centuries to come. What’s the point in overcoming Ukraine if you’re simultaneously jonesing to become a glass parking lot?

#42 Andrew on 05.02.22 at 5:04 pm

#11 & 15-Vancouver Island homes are still be advertised above their summer assessments, so the correction doesn’t seem to be happening out west…

Check sale prices, not listed ones. – Garth

Assessed value is an inaccurate gauge of market value, and Dave’s comment was bang-on; buyers are still competing on Van Island. Garth is also correct to refer only to sales prices, but I feel he believes there is a turn here that hasn’t started. 1300 listings in May is about 2500 short of a balanced market/buyer’s market. Meanwhile ppl are concerned in BC that 100,000 new residents arrived in the last year b/c they didn’t bring a family doctor. You know what else they didn’t bring? Their houses.
Don’t get me wrong, there’s a change in the air. But for those who love to make dramatic predictions (cough, cough…) you will be incorrect. Soft landing on Van Island. Wish I were wrong so I could buy more real estate.

Today’s market report sows sales down 26% year/year and 11% month/month. You guys need to get out more. – Garth

#43 Coffee on 05.02.22 at 5:07 pm

I can’t see SFD homes in Toronto only dropping 10-12%, that is nothing and does nothing to help the under 30 age group who the vast majority want to live in the GTA, have you seen some of the 2million dollar bungalows in North York, nothing to write home about and a 10% drop does nothing to help anyone, I think more likely a 25-40% drop on these, if it’s only a 10% drop, look down south instead.

#44 Reality Check on 05.02.22 at 5:08 pm

The obscene real estate market in Victoria shows no sign of weakness. Pretty much everything still selling with multiple offers.

So many homes here are scooped by retirees from other provinces. To see weakness in Victoria Likely need to see retirees purchasing power reduced either by big Heloc rate increase coming home to roost or lower sales prices in the retirees home market.

Apparently you need a new reality check. The real estate board today says sales slid hard (26%) from last April, and were down 11% from March. “The past month concluded with notably lower sales when compared to April of last year,” said 2022 Victoria Real Estate Board President Karen Dinnie-Smyth. “This tells an interesting story because activity traditionally peaks over the course of the spring, and this year we have seen a gradual softening of the market. As we have reported many times in the past years, the market hinges on supply and demand. Rising interest rates and inflationary pressures on top of higher prices throughout the region have combined to introduce new market dynamics because of waning demand that consumers and their REALTORS® are now navigating.” It’s started. – Garth

#45 cramar on 05.02.22 at 5:12 pm

Today brings another massive EV auto investment in Windsor! It is interesting that with so much gloom and doom with average people these days, industry is not retrenching, but charging ahead with investments and plans for the future. They are not cutting back in the face of supply chain and inflation issues, but going forward with optimism. Market pull-backs, whether RE or stocks, is an opportunity to get in.

#46 Tony on 05.02.22 at 5:29 pm

The ‘virtues’ you extol for kids buying homes are the reason home prices are idiotic. The solution to that is modern monetary theory, economists from Paul Krugman to John Cochrane agree that this is a very stupid idea.

No one knows what is going to happen, but few imagine it is going to result in good outcomes.

Where did I use the term ‘virtues’? Or extol anything? If you can’t make a point without hyperbole, you fail. Like the truckers. – Garth

#47 Observer on 05.02.22 at 5:33 pm

#21 I just don’t get it on 05.02.22 at 3:21 pm
Why are wait times totally insane – like over 2h – when you dial the CRA and similar gov. Aren’t there more staff in gov and higher pay than ever before. And don’t they all work from home now to make things more efficient.

Y’all maybe know something I missed.

^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^
Maybe try doing your taxes sooner.

#48 The Regulator on 05.02.22 at 5:37 pm

The “cartel” will have a lot of ‘splaining to do when the special people who bought at the top go underwater. Pitchforks in one hand, and latte’s in the other. Their spikey hair-doo’s glistening in the moonlight.

#49 Wiggleroom on 05.02.22 at 5:48 pm

Jeez why do I open the comment section here, the first thing I see is that WW3 is here and we in Canada are doomed. Seriously, I have to avoid this blog or I will develop an anxiety disorder, if I don’t have one already from events over the past 2 years.

#50 Cici on 05.02.22 at 5:51 pm

Does anyone have an opinion on ibonds?

They’re the latest YouTube flogging mania, but something tells me they’re too good to be true?

#51 crowdedelevatorfartz on 05.02.22 at 5:55 pm

@#48 The Regulator
“Pitchforks in one hand, and latte’s in the other. Their spikey hair-doo’s glistening in the moonlight.”

+++

Screaming politically correct slogans no doubt.

#52 Linda on 05.02.22 at 6:06 pm

#21 ‘I’ – well, let’s see. First, a call centre job for the CRA tops out at $58,453 per annum or just over $32 per hour based on a 35 hour per week work week. Second, one must be bilingual. Clients will expect to be served in both official languages including any written communication. Third, consider the type of calls likely to occur. If callers have received an assessment of notice demanding payment, or have been sent a penalty notification, or have been sent notification of an audit, just how happy do you think those callers are going to be especially if they’ve been waiting hours? Do you think they might be 1) annoyed; 2) orbital; 3) verbally abusive; 4) all of the above? There are plenty of jobs out there that pay as much without all the hassle. This may be why the job posting for CRA call centre employees mentions they will ‘give priority to the first 100 applicants’. That is code for ‘no one wants this job’ in government speak.

#53 jess on 05.02.22 at 6:26 pm

Without substantial subsidies ?

October 6, 2021
Fossil Fuels Received $5.9 Trillion In Subsidies in 2020, Report FindsCoal, oil, and natural gas received $5.9 trillion in subsidies in 2020 — or roughly $11 million every minute — according to a new analysis from the International Monetary Fund.
https://e360.yale.edu/digest/fossil-fuels-received-5-9-trillion-in-subsidies-in-2020-report-finds

…. oil seems to be a cursehttps://www.investopedia.com/terms/r/resource-curse.asp

More than 100 petrochemical facilities line a stretch of the Mississippi River between New Orleans and Baton Rouge, Louisiana, which is known to industry as the “Petrochemical Corridor” and to locals as “Cancer Alley.”
.
https://www.desmog.com/2022/04/25/this-needs-to-be-fixed-nuclear-expert-calls-radioactivity-levels-found-outside-ohio-oilfield-waste-facility-excessive/

#54 Steven Rowlandson on 05.02.22 at 6:28 pm

“In contrast, shed a tear for those who have borrowed big in the last year or two to buy a property, especially outside the urban core. ”

No soft landing for real estate investors or debtors.
They are all educated people and they have all been warned if not by this website then by other means.
The increase in homelessness and lower birthrates should have set off the alarm bells indicating big problems are in the works. Those hoping for a greater fool to come along are about to find that they have jumped the shark and that they are lunch.
Same deal for those who don’t give a hoot about government debt. Debt is what currencies are based on and represent. Repayment and default on debt expunges currency or credit. If the creditor can’t be paid then his debts or deposits held for others can’t be paid. The system works if debt is serviced and paid about as fast as it is being contracted. When debt is created even faster and for long enough there comes a point where there is no honorable way out. Just a lose, lose situation via default or hyperinflation and then currency restructuring. X number of zeroes knocked off the currency supply. Bank accounts go poof and close.
Nasty bit of business that.

#55 ogdoad on 05.02.22 at 6:30 pm

If young people today think that the only reason the world may tilt against them is housing then the duped have already inherited the earth…what’s Musk into, anyway?

Happy Battle of Alcatraz!

Og

#56 OK, Doomer on 05.02.22 at 6:40 pm

Oh well, not my problem. My house is up almost 100% since Trudeau took power, he could have controlled the rocketing prices with some effective fiscal policies, but he never did – and I thank him!
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

Good thing that you sold out and pocketed the win, or I hope you did?

Otherwise you’d just be someone trapped in a paper gain and unwilling/unable to cash out and blinded by the illusion of a gain.

Thanking Trudeau for creating a mess that you can’t get out of lacks a bit of clarity.

#57 crowdedelevatorfartz on 05.02.22 at 6:44 pm

@#49 Wiggleroom
“Seriously, I have to avoid this blog or I will develop an anxiety disorder,”

+++

No worries.
A long trip in an elevator with me.
All your problems ….will be forgotten.

#58 the Jaguar on 05.02.22 at 6:53 pm

Magnificent is Frederick. Not sure about the plaid bow tie, which amuses the owner who has a Scottish name.
No adornment required for this baby doll with exquisite colouring. Velvety brown with orange contrasts similar to the Atomic Orange of the 2007 Corvette. His expression says ” Eat your heart out, plush toys. Some days there just isn’t enough of me to go around”.

#59 Dragonslayer on 05.02.22 at 6:54 pm

#52 Linda
#21 ‘I’ – well, let’s see. First, a call centre job for the CRA tops out at $58,453 per annum or just over $32 per hour based on a 35 hour per week work week. Second, one must be bilingual. Clients will expect to be served in both official languages including any written communication. Third, consider the type of calls likely to occur. If callers have received an assessment of notice demanding payment, or have been sent a penalty notification, or have been sent notification of an audit, just how happy do you think those callers are going to be especially if they’ve been waiting hours? Do you think they might be 1) annoyed; 2) orbital; 3) verbally abusive; 4) all of the above? There are plenty of jobs out there that pay as much without all the hassle. This may be why the job posting for CRA call centre employees mentions they will ‘give priority to the first 100 applicants’. That is code for ‘no one wants this job’ in government speak.
——————————————————
Exactly. Having worked in a similar type of role, I can tell you de-escalating an upset caller and getting to the heart of the issue is a long process. These are not 5 minute phone calls. Usually takes some in depth review, often a consult with a manager and maybe a call back, to sort out.

Never worked for the CRA but all this CERB stuff must be a nightmare to deal with.

#60 Km on 05.02.22 at 6:56 pm

Is the bubble deflating in your neck of the woods? We turned down work in the end as the market started going nuts there too. Taking a pay cut , more taxes and houses that were bubbling suddenly made the move not worthwhile.

#61 Søren Angst on 05.02.22 at 7:08 pm

Good write up as usual. Couldn’t agree more.

And for the +6% 4th Qtr 2021 Canada GDP annualized mavens it was

+4.8%

in 2021

so there.

https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/daily-quotidien/220502/dq220502a-eng.htm?HPA=1

Oddly, SK GD shrunk -0.3%. Which is weird. Province by Province:

https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/daily-quotidien/220502/g-a001-eng.htm

You sure can tell that ON determines national GDP from that image.

——————-

Canada. The Little Economy that Could.

And does.

#62 pPrasseur on 05.02.22 at 7:21 pm

What lies ahead?

More consumption, more inflation (more of a great economy will the “experts” say) until the stimulus mirage autodestructs, choked by the inflation it created or by credit tightening, or both…

Then the bankruptcy festival begins!

#63 Søren Angst on 05.02.22 at 7:24 pm

Going to be an EU oil embargo on Russia announced this week.

Holdbacks Germany and Austria have signed off on it.

Hungary, Slovakia to be given exemptions as they depend on Russian oil (for now).

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=U6Qx6LkGoZ4

Other sanctions coming as well.

Bit by bit, Russia’s cash flow to make war being eviscerated.

————–

My oil bounced back today, pretty sure in part to due with the above.

yeah oil

My Maple got slaughtered

bad Maple (for today)

#64 IHCTD9 on 05.02.22 at 7:45 pm

#56 OK, Doomer on 05.02.22 at 6:40 pm
Oh well, not my problem. My house is up almost 100% since Trudeau took power, he could have controlled the rocketing prices with some effective fiscal policies, but he never did – and I thank him!
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

Good thing that you sold out and pocketed the win, or I hope you did?

Otherwise you’d just be someone trapped in a paper gain and unwilling/unable to cash out and blinded by the illusion of a gain.

Thanking Trudeau for creating a mess that you can’t get out of lacks a bit of clarity.
———

Nope, didn’t sell. This is where I live, it’s just a house. It was never a retirement plan.

The mess will be for whoever wants to buy it someday in Post-Trudeau Canada. Way overvalued thanks to Lib fiscal non-policy.

Their problem not mine – thankfully.

#65 You may hate Nanaimo on 05.02.22 at 7:46 pm

But the stats don’t lie. April just out. More sales and more price increases all over the Island north of Vic which is just too expensive for y’all mainlanders.

http://www.vireb.com/assets/uploads/04apr_22_vireb_stats_package_64850.pdf

#66 Stealth on 05.02.22 at 7:49 pm

Thank you for the post.
Is there a case to be made for purchasing bond etfs before the current rate increases cycle is through, other than for their dampening factor?

Somehow psychologically drop of 40% in equities is easily swallowed than 10% drop in bonds value due to the bonds perception of safety and equity etfs perception of volatility.

Thanks

Thanks

#67 Kato on 05.02.22 at 7:50 pm

#50 Cici on 05.02.22 at 5:51 pm
Does anyone have an opinion on ibonds?

They’re the latest YouTube flogging mania, but something tells me they’re too good to be true?
‐———————

Not having heard of them until mentioned here, I will say sometimes how they are pitched or presented tells you enough. Youtube flogging indicates to me to steer clear.

#68 [email protected] on 05.02.22 at 7:54 pm

ScotiaBank commercial during hockey game!

With actual nice lady at the bank!

Handing out advice!

ScotiaAdvice!

Clearly marketing agency reads this site.

#69 april on 05.02.22 at 8:18 pm

#65 – People with pre-approved mortgages jumping in before the rate expires …some taking on a huge amt of debt to avoid the higher rate… seems more sensible to owe less with a higher rate.

#70 Søren Angst on 05.02.22 at 8:24 pm

Perusing Twitter today on Cdn RE.

A lot of panic out there Garth. Some samples:

https://twitter.com/CondoChris/status/1521169819449663490

https://twitter.com/nasmadotali/status/1521108867043794946

The latter on 7% mortgage rates garnered a lot of Comments. Some of your sources like Butler weighing in as well (follow him as well).

Terrio, bankruptcy guy, figures recession. Of course, that will be good news for his business.

——————

Interesting to me what

E pluribus unum

think. It is NOT good.

I’m with you Garth, it will get better. Economy is strong. Lots of work.

Mr. Market doing his thing and are CBs vs. Inflation and higher rates a part of that.

GOOD.

Speculators out of the market will make Cdn RE affordable for the kids. ALL for that.

#71 Sail Away on 05.02.22 at 8:27 pm

#67 Kato on 05.02.22 at 7:50 pm
#50 Cici on 05.02.22 at 5:51 pm
Does anyone have an opinion on ibonds?

They’re the latest YouTube flogging mania, but something tells me they’re too good to be true?

———

Not having heard of them until mentioned here, I will say sometimes how they are pitched or presented tells you enough. Youtube flogging indicates to me to steer clear.

———

I bonds are US government Treasury bonds currently paying 9.62%, but only accessible to US citizens. They are as safe as the US government. We have many and continue to buy more.

#72 A.C on 05.02.22 at 8:29 pm

So if i put 20% down but the bank appraisal puts it at less then my purchase price but not less then my mortgage im applying for? Will my financing get denied? I’m hoping my friends new home purchase doesn’t go through. If they wait even a few months they can get a way better deal.

#73 Shawn on 05.02.22 at 8:30 pm

U.S. I-bonds? Sorry only for U.S citizens

#12 pc on 05.02.22 at 2:49 pm
Hi Garth, what is an I Bond and are they available to Canadians? Why are they giving 9.62% interest?

US product. Only a six-month term. – Garth

*******************************
They have been mentioned in these comments a few times. My understanding is that they are only for U.S. citizens and and limited to $15k per year.

I have suggested to my U.S. citizen sister to look into it. Sounds like a very good thing.

#74 TurnerNation on 05.02.22 at 8:35 pm

Dear Diary. It is Q2 2022. I still wear two pairs of underwear, outside, to protect others. I am Kanadian.

— Food Supply/War on Meat. Relentless. The best Science money can buy.

https://plantbasednews.org/news/environment/meat-consumption-rich-countries-new-study/
“Meat Consumption Must Drop By 75% In Rich Countries, Says New Study
In order to tackle the climate crisis, Western countries must rethink the way they eat, new research says
by Charlotte Pointing 29th April 2022”


— World: Almost back to normal, 2.5 years into this! It was not designed to ‘be over’??
The children never again shall know the normalcy.

.Bangladesh Closed Schools for 18 Months—and Now Children Aren’t Returning to the Classroom (time.com)

.Philippines Puts Schools on ‘Health Break’ as Covid Cases Soar (nytimes.com)

.NYC schools to give students weekly at-home COVID tests, asking families to use them on a regular basis (brooklyneagle.com)

#75 Ronaldo on 05.02.22 at 8:39 pm

#5 Mr Fox on 05.02.22 at 2:29 pm
It’s hard to watch though your money dwindling away, even if it’s a B&D portfolio… I’m down ~80k (unrealized) this year and that hurts a lot.
I understand that the market will recover, and that catching the moments when it goes up is extremely important but now psychologically it’s hard.

So don’t look. Problem solved. Seriously, if you do not need the capital immediately, then why are you stressing over it? You know what the long-term outcome will be. – Garth
——————————————————————
Once again my wife concerned over the loss of equity in her portfolio which is substantial so when down 8.9% ytd it does look rather drastic. But, I explained to her that in the past 3 years, she has gotten 11.2, 11.4 and 11.6 so an average of 11.4. Even taking away 11.4 still gives her an average of 7.6 per year which is about what you would expect with a B&D portfolio.

#76 50 YEARS OF MAPLE LEAF INCOMPETENCE! on 05.02.22 at 8:42 pm

It’s different, but the same in the Torontoilet!

It’s not just real estate that’s about to plunge, Garth!

55 years ago today, the Make Believes did not pathetically fail and rip off their fans.

Now they face a real champion team in the quarter finals, a stage they have not moved on from since 2004.

Tampa Bay crushed them 8-1 just over a week ago.

Give it all up, Toronturds. Accept that you live in a craphole of overpriced real estate, incredible shootings and stabbings every week, and incompetence at an unheard of level in sports.

Give it up.

FREEDOM 55!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

#77 Ponzius Pilatus on 05.02.22 at 8:42 pm

Frederick?
he looks more like a Fredy to me.

#78 Ronaldo on 05.02.22 at 8:49 pm

#22 Dave on 05.02.22 at 3:25 pm
Re Nanaimo

Yes, and Nanaimo (Surrey by the Sea) is an over priced S-hole with greasy bikers, drugs and a pulp mill smell
——————————————————————
Total BS. Nanaimo is an awesome place to live. More young people moving here. It has everything one needs for any age group and still slightly affordable.

#79 Dr V on 05.02.22 at 8:50 pm

65 Nanaimo

“But the stats don’t lie. April just out. More sales and more price increases all over the Island north of Vic which is just too expensive for y’all mainlanders.”
——————————————–

Ahh unit sales down ever so slightly from march and down 12% from last April. Prices also down from last month everywhere except Cowichan.

And I am from Nanaimo.

#80 Ronaldo on 05.02.22 at 9:01 pm

#40 dosouth on 05.02.22 at 4:46 pm
#11 Dave on 05.02.22 at 2:48 pm
Vancouver Island homes are still be advertised above their summer assessments, so the correction doesn’t seem to be happening out west…
—————————————————–

Sorry Dave but not so, houses are stalling and high end even more so. BC’s Evalue assessment are just used for tax purposes or Realtors when they want to list a house over the assessed rate.

It’s only worth what one will pay and hey….this place has been on the market for over 60 days in a prestigious part of the island.(realtor has relisted it twice to reduce the DOM)..tides are turning.

Crickets with 5 opens houses so far
—————————————————————
And this is what you get across the water in Mt. Pleasant area of Vancouver for roughly the same bucks.

https://www.bcassessment.ca/Property/Info/QTAwMDAwMTk1WQ==

#81 toronto1 on 05.02.22 at 9:02 pm

#63 Søren Angst on 05.02.22 at 7:24 pm

Have to admit that you were right if this happens, i will be surprised, Germany must have been promised some huge concessions.

If Germany agrees then so will Austria, Slovakia and Hungary etc… although im not sure where the alternative is going to come from.

#82 VladTor on 05.02.22 at 9:23 pm

Garth….
The real difference is that equity prices are correlated to corporate profits.

********

Garth, you just opened my eyes.

I was sure that nowadays equity prices are correlated to corporate ability to have access to printed helicopter money (too many fanny names invented for this money – like quality improvement/softening etc.) from government and using them to buy back they own equity and as result pumping they own shares price

#83 Jake on 05.02.22 at 9:31 pm

So far we have just retested March lows. I hope I’m wrong but I believe more excess needs to get wiped or closer to 30k on the Dow bringing us back to pre-pandemic levels before the bull continues.

#84 Søren Angst on 05.02.22 at 10:04 pm

#81 toronto1

Already happened. Emergency meeting today by EU Ministers, finance etc.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iboED7tCQ4E&t=2s

Just waiting for announcement later this week.

Basically to Russia:

From the European Union with LOVE.

Cdn MSM pretty deficient at capturing the OUTRAGE here in the EU of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

Italia has turned its shoulders on Russia. Sanctioned at least €1 billion in Russian assets here.

Draghi the architect of freezing Russian assets Worldwide.

Financial Times nails it:

“Revulsion at Ukraine war ends Rome’s old amity with Moscow”

https://www.ft.com/content/70d99402-98c4-4f1b-a693-2f25739b2455

Russia delenda est.

The sentiment in Italia and the rest of the EU + Brexit.

#85 Ronaldo on 05.02.22 at 10:10 pm

#83 Jake on 05.02.22 at 9:31 pm
So far we have just retested March lows. I hope I’m wrong but I believe more excess needs to get wiped or closer to 30k on the Dow bringing us back to pre-pandemic levels before the bull continues.
——————————————————————
Looking at my own portfolio, it appears we are back to mid June 2021 level as far as the B&D portfolio is concerned. My casino portfolio if included, I am back to Feb. 1/22 level. I know Garth, it’s not a race.

#86 Coastal Gal on 05.02.22 at 10:29 pm

59 Dragonslayer on 05.02.22 at 6:54 pm
#52 Linda
#21 ‘I’ – well, let’s see. First, a call centre job for the CRA tops out at $58,453 per annum or just over $32 per hour based on a 35 hour per week work week.

Having worked for govt before in similar role dealing with upset callers all day is tough! And you also need the knowledge and experience to answer the inquiry.

They have WORKED for their Government pension!!

#87 VladTor on 05.02.22 at 10:31 pm

#6 Joe Lalonde on 05.02.22 at 2:38 pm

Let’s spend time worrying about stuff we can control, okay? – Garth

**********

Garth, be polite, please. Better to say like this:

Let’s talk about this after III World war will be finished.

#88 YVR Renter on 05.02.22 at 10:57 pm

Well steerage kids, isn’t my prophecy coming true? Failed house deal closings, reductions by sellers to close, power of sales are next. I remember maybe 10 yrs in Toronto, not a single crane in the sky overhead. Developers are again now, folding left right and centre, and unfortunately, the innocent, hopeful purchasers that deposited a few yrs ago are getting the shaft, some retirees, life savings stuff.. It’s the 80’s again, I’m gonna get big hair and play some Duran Duran while doing aerobics to Jane Fonda’s tape.

#89 Linda on 05.02.22 at 10:59 pm

#86 ‘Coastal’ – agreed. I’d add that the so called ‘gold plated’ pension isn’t going to be more than plate given the salary. That isn’t even enough to maximize annual CPP contributions. What I wonder is if they’ve ever had to pay the top rate. That kind of job is the kind folks try to move on from asap. I’d bet they’ve had new hires who haven’t even lasted a day before they quit.

#90 Oakville Stinks on 05.02.22 at 11:05 pm

Considering the US has a more accurate inflation index, they will keep raising interest rates and Canada will have no choice but to do the same. If they don’t, the dollar drops creating more inflation for Canadians which will force higher rates whether we like it or not. Let’s not forget the Carbon Taxes Canadians voted “YES!” for too! Moving to Texas for a better life…Canada is far too gone.

#91 Sail Away on 05.02.22 at 11:05 pm

Re: Nanaimo

Fantastic place to live, but then I enjoy myself everywhere. The mountain biking and outdoor opportunities are quite excellent. Watched this from the deck a few years ago:

https://youtu.be/foW-Uq0nTU4

#92 IHCTD9 on 05.02.22 at 11:32 pm

Doug Ford talking about 200 Billion in infrastructure projects. How the crap is that supposed to happen? I like new highways and bridges a lot more than dumb rainbow sidewalks and removing statues, but we’ve got half a Trillion worth of gross debt in this Province for crying out loud. Yes we’re far from the worst as a % of GDP, but you’d think somewhere in this country, a political leader would at least *try* to get a handle on spending right about now…

#93 Yankee Screwdle on 05.03.22 at 12:00 am

#71 Sail Away

“I bonds are US government Treasury bonds currently paying 9.62%, but only accessible to US citizens. They are as safe as the US government. We have many and continue to buy more.”

I am also an American/Canadian dual citizen. However, when I attempted to buy I series bonds, I found out that you need an American “address of record”. That’s defined as the equivalent of our principal residence i.e. where you typically reside.

As a Canadian resident, I don’t have such an address.
How do you get around this apparent showstopper?

#94 HUNGRY BEAR on 05.03.22 at 12:21 am

WAGMI..

Were all going to make it!!!

#95 Ronaldo on 05.03.22 at 12:23 am

#91 Sail Away on 05.02.22 at 11:05 pm
Re: Nanaimo

Fantastic place to live, but then I enjoy myself everywhere. The mountain biking and outdoor opportunities are quite excellent. Watched this from the deck a few years ago:

https://youtu.be/foW-Uq0nTU4
==================================
Methinks we are neighbours…..from my deck I stare out at Jesse Island and Newcastle and the entrance to Departure Bay. I remember that day but missed the action. The employees at the biological station were quite impressed. And you’re correct about the biking as my wife and I have been hiking on many of the biker trails over the past many years up and down the island.

#96 Dr V on 05.03.22 at 12:54 am

91 Sailo – given Nanaimo’s rep, do you think they were resident orcas or transient biker orcas.

#97 fishman on 05.03.22 at 1:20 am

# 41 IHCTD9, I know this nerdy guy who orders stuff up on the Dark Web. He orders up Coke & has these testing gadgets testing what it really is. Lately there has been no cocaine in the cocaine. Its a mixture of meth & phentanyl. Now this stuff messes your mind after awhile, especially if you think this new “enlightenment” is just a coke bump.. Like your riding the bus & you hear the person next to you talking to you, but he’s really not. Its these voices your hearing that says a nuclear exchange with Russia is winnable. Try confirming this with some people near & dear to you. People that care & love you & have your best interests at heart.

#98 Todd on 05.03.22 at 1:52 am

Doug Ford will either freeze or cut social assistance rates to give to the rich. Many handicapped persons in wheelchairs are considering assisted death because of the income inequality in this country where a cottage in Wasaga Beach earns more than a doctor in a year.

#99 I don’t know on 05.03.22 at 3:07 am

69 april on 05.02.22 at 8:18 pm

As stated by our host, houses and stocks will heal, and everyone with any sense knows it. Only people who spend way too much time on social media and are exposed to emotional hyperbole believe otherwise.

Anyone with any sense also knows that rates up = houses and stocks down is an incorrect over-simplification.

If one isn’t too greedy, now is a good time to look at purchasing either. But most won’t, they will sit in depreciating cash and miss the bottom, like usual.

Regarding real estate, those people who were pre-approved at rock bottom rates, and who locked in for five years, can go back to sleep and enjoy life in their homes. Rates won’t be heading anywhere near as much as everyone thinks for one, and five years is a long time for two. If a speculator looking to sell soon was completely out of tune and thought rates would be at 0 forever, that’s their fault. Everyone knew carrying costs were going up. Expect an increase in condo listings and houses in far off areas soon, and yes it will be a short lived buying opportunity..if it’s not here already.

IDK

#100 Anonymous on 05.03.22 at 4:28 am

Go rate hikes go!
Bankrupt the speculators!
Go rate hikes go!
Increase the mortgage payments!
Hahahahaha
Too bad you bought a yurt in Wasaga Beach
Now your girls a (beep) at Niagara Falls
Go rate hikes go!

#101 devore on 05.03.22 at 5:27 am

#52 Linda

Why do they have to be bilingual? We have had the technology to let people select their preferred language and transfer calls between agents for decades. The federal bilingual requirement has been nothing but a grift and a make-work project for Quebec and NB voters. Why staff a call center with 100% of a particular skill when only 20% of callers at most will utilize it. This unnecessarily increases costs and limits the hiring pool.

#102 under the radar on 05.03.22 at 6:16 am

72 So if i put 20% down but the bank appraisal puts it at less then my purchase price but not less then my mortgage im applying for? Will my financing get denied?

The bank will still fund but will require the buyer to up its down payment. Usually a hastily arranged 2nd mortgage by a private is needed, provided there is no prohibition on secondary financing.

#103 the Jaguar on 05.03.22 at 8:21 am

Musings….

Rex Murphy writes about ‘The enigma of Pierre Poilievre’ in this mornings NP. He, (Poilievre) has been useful in the past calling out the Liberal Party agenda and other goings on, but when I look at him I see only some evangelical preacher of sorts. Not in a religious sense, but in an closed mindedness, opportunistic sense. I can’t warm up to him. Shark eyes. One can look into another persons eyes and see humanity or not if the spidey sense is operational.

Jason Kenney gets a positive write up this morning in the NP as well. Opportunistic? No doubt about it, but he works his keyster off for the province of Alberta.
That’s what we pay him for and he hasn’t failed us.

Just needs to cut loose from all those right wing, red neck types as does the national conservative party.
They need to take a page out of the playbook of the Little Prince. ‘It is only with the heart that one can see rightly. What is essential is invisible to the eye.’ Well, maybe not so invisible to those who put on their glasses for a closer look.

#104 crowdedelevatorfartz on 05.03.22 at 8:41 am

@#101 Devore
“The federal bilingual requirement has been nothing but a grift and a make-work project for Quebec and NB voters. ”

+++
You left out the CBC French Language tv stations across Canada.
Millions per year for even fewer viewers than the CBC English language stations across Canada.

But it does create hiring opportunities for any Quebecers that want a good govt job elsewhere in Canada.
A billion squandered here a billion squandered there.
Its only taxpayer money.

#105 OK, Doomer on 05.03.22 at 8:44 am

#64 IHCTD9 on 05.02.22 at 7:45 pm
#56 OK, Doomer on 05.02.22 at 6:40 pm
Oh well, not my problem. My house is up almost 100% since Trudeau took power, he could have controlled the rocketing prices with some effective fiscal policies, but he never did – and I thank him!
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

Good thing that you sold out and pocketed the win, or I hope you did?

Otherwise you’d just be someone trapped in a paper gain and unwilling/unable to cash out and blinded by the illusion of a gain.

Thanking Trudeau for creating a mess that you can’t get out of lacks a bit of clarity.
———

Nope, didn’t sell. This is where I live, it’s just a house. It was never a retirement plan.

The mess will be for whoever wants to buy it someday in Post-Trudeau Canada. Way overvalued thanks to Lib fiscal non-policy.

Their problem not mine – thankfully.
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

I’ll just throw this out there:

You’re assuming that house prices are not negatively correlated with interest rates, so you’ll be able to maintain your paper profit, cash out any time you want and that there will always be someone in the wings to bail you out.

Interesting view. Completely unsupported by economics and finance, but interesting.

#106 crowdedelevatorfartz on 05.03.22 at 8:47 am

@#92 IHCTD9

” but you’d think somewhere in this country, a political leader would at least *try* to get a handle on spending right about now…”

+++

Politicians of all levels have now realized the idiots that elect them….don’t know how to budget their personal savings or count.
The sky is the limit for debt.
New math. Blame the teachers.
:)

#107 mj on 05.03.22 at 8:58 am

some people are saying that they are not seeing the decline in the housing market. Just so everyone knows, you won’t see a 30% price decline over night. To give an example, the 2008 housing market decline in the states took between 2-3 years to bottom. We are just at the beginning. You will notice it a lot more after the summer if the bank of Canada continues to increase rates by 50 points each in June and July.

#108 Senator Bluto on 05.03.22 at 9:02 am

The Americans may have just taken a huge step towards a second Civil War today. Apparently a law clerk on the Supreme Court leaked a confidential draft opinion overturning Roe v. Wade.

Regardless of your personal opinions on abortion, leaking of this document is an unforgiveable violation of the Court, and obviously done to sow political unrest and intimidate the Court into changing its mind.

It seems to be a recurring theme that the political left, whether in the US or Canada, operates in a world without guard rails. There is no norm to be respected, no civility to be regarded, no War Measures Act too egregious to be unexploited for political gain.

#109 IHCTD9 on 05.03.22 at 9:29 am

#97 fishman on 05.03.22 at 1:20 am

Its these voices your hearing that says a nuclear exchange with Russia is winnable. Try confirming this with some people near & dear to you. People that care & love you & have your best interests at heart.
___

No Fishdude, there are no deep web fake coke voices telling me that all out global nuclear war is winnable.

Nukes are not deployable. Especially not by Russia. Talk of “nuking” Britain by Russian officials is jawboning. If Russia did so, there would be no Russia left shortly thereafter. They know it, so unless they’ve got a death-wish for their entire country and history as a people – we can safely ignore any jibba-jabba coming Russian officials WRT “nuking” anybody – ever.

#110 crowdedelevatorfartz on 05.03.22 at 9:35 am

@#107 mj
“We are just at the beginning. You will notice it a lot more after the summer if the bank of Canada continues to increase rates by 50 points each in June and July.”

+

Yep.
After a 2 year covid lockdown.
People aint thinking about houses.
Summer vacation. party. party. Visit friends and relatives.

The economic hangover will ring the bell in Oct when the Visa bills arrive.

#111 Dharma Bum on 05.03.22 at 9:48 am

“And in a perfect world, you should own both a house and a B&D portfolio.” – Garth
———————————————————————————————————

Who woulda figured that living in a perfect world would be so tough?

Oh, I know……it’s all that annoying interference and noise by lefties, wokesters, moisters, doomers, CNN, MSNBC, mils, politicos, preachers, teachers, scammers, banksters, CRA, BoC, Trudeau, CBC, dippers, TREB, covidiots, Teresa Tam, Jagmeet Singh and the FOMO crowd, wrecking the perfection vibe.

I can take it, though.

#112 SunShowers on 05.03.22 at 9:49 am

#108 Senator Bluto
“leaking of this document is an unforgiveable violation of the Court”

Republicans have been using the US Supreme Court as a partisan tool since the early 1990s, the entire institution has been corrupted. As such, I support any efforts to frustrate the Republican’s efforts in doing so, including intimidation, court stacking, or abolition. But we both know Dems won’t do any of that, they’d rather use women’s rights as a GOTV and fundraising issue and lose, while pretending to care about norms and the rule of law.

Speaking of that, I can’t believe you would come here and whine about Democrats not respecting norms when McConnell blocked Obama’s supreme court appointment completely without precedent “because it was an election year,” and then approved Trump’s supreme court appointment during HIS election year.

Do you have the memory of a goldfish?

#113 Observer on 05.03.22 at 10:12 am

#108 Senator Bluto on 05.03.22 at 9:02 am
The Americans may have just taken a huge step towards a second Civil War today. Apparently a law clerk on the Supreme Court leaked a confidential draft opinion overturning Roe v. Wade.

Regardless of your personal opinions on abortion, leaking of this document is an unforgiveable violation of the Court, and obviously done to sow political unrest and intimidate the Court into changing its mind.

It seems to be a recurring theme that the political left, whether in the US or Canada, operates in a world without guard rails. There is no norm to be respected, no civility to be regarded, no War Measures Act too egregious to be unexploited for political gain.

^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^
Give your head a shake. If there is civil unrest over this barbaric plot to deprive women of their rights, the blame is not with the left. Good for the clerk for leaking that document. If it intimidates the court into changing its mind, that can only be a good thing.

Weird how “freedom fighters” have a fit over vaccine mandates but are fine with forcing women to continue unwanted pregnancies.

#114 Sail Away on 05.03.22 at 10:24 am

#93 Yankee Screwdle on 05.03.22 at 12:00 am
#71 Sail Away

I am also an American/Canadian dual citizen. However, when I attempted to buy I series bonds, I found out that you need an American “address of record”. That’s defined as the equivalent of our principal residence i.e. where you typically reside.

As a Canadian resident, I don’t have such an address.
How do you get around this apparent showstopper?

———-

Yes, that is needed to set up the Treasury Direct account. We used my brother’s address in South Dakota and also a US-domiciled bank. I’m not sure if a Cdn bank could be used.

#115 Sail Away on 05.03.22 at 10:27 am

#109 Observer on 05.03.22 at 10:12 am

If it intimidates the court into changing its mind, that can only be a good thing.

———

Oh my

#116 Sail Away on 05.03.22 at 10:30 am

#111 SunShowers on 05.03.22 at 9:49 am

I support any efforts to frustrate the Republican’s efforts in doing so, including intimidation

———

Wow

#117 IHCTD9 on 05.03.22 at 10:42 am

#105 OK, Doomer on 05.03.22 at 8:44 am

I’ll just throw this out there:

You’re assuming that house prices are not negatively correlated with interest rates, so you’ll be able to maintain your paper profit, cash out any time you want and that there will always be someone in the wings to bail you out.

Interesting view. Completely unsupported by economics and finance, but interesting.
____

I assume no such thing, nor do I care what paper profit (if any) is realized upon sale. I bought 21 years ago before all the stupidity with rates and Trudeau fiscal non-policy euchred the country. What I paid back then looks more like a down payment on a GTA shack today.

What is supported by economics and finance, is that cheap rates, insane buyers, and weak leadership have wrecked the Canadian housing market. Trudeau could have brought it to heel, but he didn’t. House prices are not the BoC’s concern, that was Trudeau’s job.

There is absolutely nothing stopping me from realizing hundreds of thousands worth of tax free profits should I decide to sell – even right now with prices dropping. Our house would have to drop 50% just to remove Trudeau’s individual contribution to its current value. That’s insane.

This is Trudeau’s “gift” to you. It’s going to be a long while yet before the price escalation caused by Trudeau since 2015 is backed out of the RE market.

#118 IHCTD9 on 05.03.22 at 10:45 am

#113 Observer on 05.03.22 at 10:12 am

…If it intimidates the court into changing its mind, that can only be a good thing.
____

Wow!

#119 Philco on 05.03.22 at 10:47 am

#76 50 YEARS OF MAPLE LEAF INCOMPETENCE! on 05.02.22 at 8:42 pm

I agree when I fly through the Big TO I think what a hole with dirty lakes. What are people thinking!?
I got a mansion for $230k maybe worth 1.4mil now.
Ocean view 27 lovely lakes out back. Bears deers cougars im my back yard.
My property will hold its value because it cost that to build and peeps found out about paradise. Their coming from the big stinks.
Oh ya it even has a moat around it so crimes super low and no shooting. Citys suck in my view.

#120 Ponzius Pilatus on 05.03.22 at 10:58 am

#93 Yankee Screwdle on 05.03.22 at 12:00 am
#71 Sail Away

“I bonds are US government Treasury bonds currently paying 9.62%, but only accessible to US citizens. They are as safe as the US government. We have many and continue to buy more.”

I am also an American/Canadian dual citizen. However, when I attempted to buy I series bonds, I found out that you need an American “address of record”. That’s defined as the equivalent of our principal residence i.e. where you typically reside.

As a Canadian resident, I don’t have such an address.
How do you get around this apparent showstopper?
——————-
Just move to the States and take Sailo with you.

#121 Ustabe on 05.03.22 at 11:01 am

#115 Sail Away on 05.03.22 at 10:27 am

#109 Observer on 05.03.22 at 10:12 am

If it intimidates the court into changing its mind, that can only be a good thing.

———

Oh my

Outlawing medical abortion doesn’t stop abortion, it stops safe abortions.

#122 IHCTD9 on 05.03.22 at 11:04 am

#113 Observer on 05.03.22 at 10:12 am

Give your head a shake. If there is civil unrest over this barbaric plot to deprive women of their rights, the blame is not with the left.
____

If the left allows itself to be run over by Lawmakers and Republicans – who’s fault is that?

Let me guess, it’s the Lawmakers and Republicans, isn’t it?

#123 Ponzius Pilatus on 05.03.22 at 11:07 am

#108 Senator Bluto on 05.03.22 at 9:02 am
The Americans may have just taken a huge step towards a second Civil War today. Apparently a law clerk on the Supreme Court leaked a confidential draft opinion overturning Roe v. Wade.

Regardless of your personal opinions on abortion, leaking of this document is an unforgiveable violation of the Court, and obviously done to sow political unrest and intimidate the Court into changing its mind.

It seems to be a recurring theme that the political left, whether in the US or Canada, operates in a world without guard rails. There is no norm to be respected, no civility to be regarded, no War Measures Act too egregious to be unexploited for political gain.
————————
Hey Senator Pluto
You’re jumping to conclusions could get you hurt.

#124 Senator Bluto on 05.03.22 at 11:17 am

Give your head a shake. If there is civil unrest over this barbaric plot to deprive women of their rights, the blame is not with the left. Good for the clerk for leaking that document. If it intimidates the court into changing its mind, that can only be a good thing.

Weird how “freedom fighters” have a fit over vaccine mandates but are fine with forcing women to continue unwanted pregnancies.
+++++++++++++++++++++++

I actually don’t have an opinion on the primary issue. I view it as a heart wrenching decision for the parties involved and it’s just none of my business.

If I do have an opinion, it is on the lack of spine exhibited by politicians on both sides. If they want to pass a law, then have the guts to pass one. Don’t get upset when the Supreme Court refuses to bail you out of your own laziness, cowardliness and fear.

The Supreme Court is not there to make laws, just interpret the ones the peoples representatives make.

I am concerned about the willingness of the left, whether its in the US or in Canada, to create dissent to gain political power. There is nothing off limits to exploit and that speaks to a lack of character.

#125 Polozified on 05.03.22 at 11:26 am

Correct me if I’m wrong, but isn’t Roe v. Wade primarily about a woman’s right to medical privacy allowing her to obtain an abortion?

So what’s going to happen to medical privacy in the United States?

#126 SunShowers on 05.03.22 at 11:44 am

#116 Sail Away on 05.03.22 at 10:30 am
“Wow”

A bunch of right-wing theocrats are trying to return America to the days of women bleeding out in back alleys from botched abortions performed by untrained hacks, and you think I’m going to lose a wink sleep over a few self important judges getting their jabots in a twist because for one time in their miserable lives, an angry mob might make them realize that the decisions they make in their ivory towers can have horrific and deadly real-world consequences?

Not. A. Chance.

#127 Sail Away on 05.03.22 at 11:53 am

#121 Ustabe on 05.03.22 at 11:01 am
#115 Sail Away on 05.03.22 at 10:27 am
#109 Observer on 05.03.22 at 10:12 am

If it intimidates the court into changing its mind, that can only be a good thing.

——–

Oh my

——–

Outlawing medical abortion doesn’t stop abortion, it stops safe abortions.

——–

Wrong topic. We’re exploring intimidation of Supreme Court justices.

Intimidation is worth nothing without backup.

Remember this Quebecer who decided Pres. Donald needed some intimidation?

https://montreal.citynews.ca/2022/04/27/plea-quebec-woman-poison-trump/

You people are nuts.

#128 unbalanced on 05.03.22 at 11:57 am

What rhymes with brag,brag,brag? IHCTD9

#129 Sail Away on 05.03.22 at 12:09 pm

Elon is saving the rain forest. That guy.

https://www.msn.com/en-ca/news/world/amazon-tribes-turn-the-tables-on-intruders-with-social-media/ar-AAWQLXf?ocid=msedgntp&cvid=e47cb86e894448208a17d38688d2855c

#130 Observer on 05.03.22 at 12:19 pm

#124 Senator Bluto on 05.03.22 at 11:17 am

I actually don’t have an opinion on the primary issue. I view it as a heart wrenching decision for the parties involved and it’s just none of my business.

^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^
I think you contradicted yourself in that statement.

#131 IHCTD9 on 05.03.22 at 12:26 pm

#126 SunShowers on 05.03.22 at 11:44 am
#116 Sail Away on 05.03.22 at 10:30 am

….an angry mob might make them realize that the decisions they make in their ivory towers can have horrific and deadly real-world consequences?

Not. A. Chance.
________

So if Trudeau passed a law I didn’t agree with, you would offer your enthusiastic support when I round up the troops and head for Ottawa?

I thought you lefties hated fighting for freedumb?

#132 IHCTD9 on 05.03.22 at 12:36 pm

#124 Senator Bluto on 05.03.22 at 11:17 am

I am concerned about the willingness of the left, whether its in the US or in Canada, to create dissent to gain political power. There is nothing off limits to exploit and that speaks to a lack of character.
____

I wouldn’t sweat it. These Law changes are proceeding with lackluster opposition. I get the feeling the abortion rights issue has a fading virility with many Americans. I did a bit of Googling, and it appears most Americans actually support tightening up the reins on abortion to some extent. Not making it illegal of course, but, more like ensuring it doesn’t become a taxpayer funded free for all like it is up here.

Besides, if a Civil War broke out, we already know who’d be winning that one, so nothing would change either way.

#133 Observer on 05.03.22 at 12:42 pm

SA and IHCTD9, to clarify, I am not suggesting the leak was justified which is another separate debate, but I am suggesting that if it results in women maintaining their right to abortion, that would be a positive outcome for women.

#134 IHCTD9 on 05.03.22 at 12:58 pm

#128 unbalanced on 05.03.22 at 11:57 am

What rhymes with brag,brag,brag? IHCTD9

_______________________________

Nonsense. I am a humble Man, and I freely admit none of our crazy 2015-2022 wealth spike was wrought of my own hand. It was Trudeau’s hand, and the hands of the unborn who gave all this to me.

I didn’t even vote for it. But I still got it anyway.

#135 Sail Away on 05.03.22 at 12:59 pm

#133 Observer on 05.03.22 at 12:42 pm

SA and IHCTD9, to clarify, I am not suggesting the leak was justified which is another separate debate, but I am suggesting that if it results in women maintaining their right to abortion, that would be a positive outcome for women.

——–

You actually stated this, clearly and unequivocally:

“If it intimidates the court into changing its mind, that can only be a good thing.”

Approving of illegal intimidation to get your way invalidates any other discussion about the subject.

#136 SunShowers on 05.03.22 at 1:02 pm

#131 IHCTD9
“So if Trudeau passed a law I didn’t agree with, you would offer your enthusiastic support when I round up the troops and head for Ottawa?”

Are you going to try to equate women dying from botched back alley abortions with some harebrained antivax covid denial narrative?

Because there’s a difference between “a law you don’t like” and “a law that results in people dying.”

#137 rampant inflation on 05.03.22 at 1:12 pm

Eurozone PPI just hit an all-time high at 36.8% YoY.
8th consecutive all-time high, previous print was 31.5%.

but don’t worry. it’s transitory…

#138 IHCTD9 on 05.03.22 at 1:20 pm

#133 Observer on 05.03.22 at 12:42 pm
SA and IHCTD9, to clarify, I am not suggesting the leak was justified which is another separate debate, but I am suggesting that if it results in women maintaining their right to abortion, that would be a positive outcome for women.
____

Kinda sounded like: “If the level of intimidation administered to the SC Judges is sufficient to cause enough fear, that their decision subsequently sways in our favour – that would produce a positive outcome for Women.”

Someone should try this tactic on a Jury if they’re facing serious jailtime. Might produce a positive outcome.

#139 IHCTD9 on 05.03.22 at 1:29 pm

#136 SunShowers on 05.03.22 at 1:02 pm

Are you going to try to equate women dying from botched back alley abortions with some harebrained antivax covid denial narrative?

Because there’s a difference between “a law you don’t like” and “a law that results in people dying.”
____

Are you going to pretend that most Women in restrictive States who would like to purchase an abortion head straight for the back alley?

#140 Bill on 05.03.22 at 1:30 pm

I hate abortion debates. But this screams.

~ Because there’s a difference between “a law you don’t like” and “a law that results in people dying.”

Dude, you realize that in successful abortions – someone dies, right?

I’ve learned long ago, that the abortion debate is far too complicated to be handled by the human mind. So, I don’t. I also know that the human body is complicated, and having the right to f it up however you want to f it up, is really the best policy. So if you want to f it up by taking a vaccine, or not, or getting an abortion, or not, or f up your own baby, or not, I really don’t care – it’s none of my business.

I really wish people would just stay out of my business. Now more than ever.

Just let people do what they do, and to themselves. Everyone really has better things to concern themselves with than what others put in, on, or do to their own body. The vaxxers and the aborters are very funny people because they don’t understand how funny they are.

I’m far too busy making my own family successful than to care what you do to your baby, or what you put into your body.

There is no correlation between a public health emergency and pregnancy. Stop trying to align them. – Garth

#141 Ponzius Pilatus on 05.03.22 at 1:35 pm

Using a fictional book as a basis for making public policy is not a smart thing.
Will “an eye for an eye” be next?

#142 Ustabe on 05.03.22 at 1:42 pm

#125 Polozified on 05.03.22 at 11:26 am

Correct me if I’m wrong, but isn’t Roe v. Wade primarily about a woman’s right to medical privacy allowing her to obtain an abortion?

So what’s going to happen to medical privacy in the United States?

From what I am able to see (so far) that is a major concern of many that is shaping up.

#143 IHCTD9 on 05.03.22 at 1:50 pm

#106 crowdedelevatorfartz on 05.03.22 at 8:47 am
@#92 IHCTD9

” but you’d think somewhere in this country, a political leader would at least *try* to get a handle on spending right about now…”

+++

Politicians of all levels have now realized the idiots that elect them….don’t know how to budget their personal savings or count.
The sky is the limit for debt.
New math. Blame the teachers.
:)
____

I was hoping for better from Dougie. He wants to do more lanes on the 401 East of the GTA all the way to the PQ border.

I don’t know if I can get behind that kind of expenditure. I think 401 Eastbound out of Toronto should be reduced back to 1 lane and returned to gravel. This would save a lot of money, and be so much more planet friendly!

#144 Senator Bluto on 05.03.22 at 2:05 pm

#130 Observer on 05.03.22 at 12:19 pm
#124 Senator Bluto on 05.03.22 at 11:17 am

I actually don’t have an opinion on the primary issue. I view it as a heart wrenching decision for the parties involved and it’s just none of my business.

^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^
I think you contradicted yourself in that statement.
+++++++++++++++++++++++

Not really. Most people have a moral opinion and a practical one and they may not always agree. The trick is to learn to live with and accept the ambiguity.

For example, my moral opinion is that I’m 100% in favor of capital punishment for certain crimes.

At the same time, I have no wish to spend millions of dollars whacking someone who can rot in jail for a small fraction of that cost. Spend the millions education or healthcare instead.

#145 Bdwy on 05.03.22 at 2:14 pm

The MLS® Home Price Index composite benchmark price for all residential properties in Metro
Vancouver is currently $1,374,500. This represents an 18.9 per cent increase over April 2021 and
a one per cent increase compared to March 2022.
Sales of detached homes in April 2022 reached 962, a 41.9 per cent decrease from the 1,655
detached sales recorded in April 2021. The benchmark price for a detached home is $2,139,200.
This represents a 20.8 per cent increase from April 2021 and a one per cent increase compared to
March 2022.

As mentioned, monthly stats are blended. It will be instructive to see weekly numbers and trendline. A sales drop of 40%+ in April – traditionally the year’s best month – is indicative of… something. – Garth

#146 Bdwy on 05.03.22 at 2:36 pm

. It was Trudeau’s hand, and the hands of the unborn who gave all this to me.

……..

Our pathetic excuse for a pm TOOK it from the hands of the unborn to piss away.

result? Mills never get a house. Or not for 30 years or so.

The current federal government is not the reason you can’t afford a house in Vancouver. Grow up. – Garth

#147 Bdwy on 05.03.22 at 3:00 pm

Back to back replies from garth! Im buying a lottery ticket today.

…….
1.The 40% drop is big but last year was a bigtime outlier. 25% month to month drop in detached sales more
concerning. Listings up 14% m/m too.

2.At least by the calendar im already grown up! Ive got all the houses i can handle. Pm sox made me rich too. I was not complaining , more taunting.

#148 Mint Julep on 05.03.22 at 3:34 pm

I mean…I *could* look at my investment balance, which would be painful given my investor’s love of FAANG’s…but I don’t. What’s the point? It’s all numbers on a page until I retire…which is many years away yet.
Thinking of selling the house and buying/living a boat – investing the balance in the market. Crazy idea, but no kids..

#149 Linda on 05.03.22 at 6:25 pm

#101 ‘devore’ – not being the one who implemented the requirement I’d suggest you take matters up with your MP. As for transferring calls between agents, I for one would be less than impressed that my work load increased due to my colleagues not being able to communicate in both official languages. Especially if said colleagues got paid the same or more than I did. The main issue with the call centre being lack of staff which equals inordinately long wait times. The call transfer idea would likely increase staff turnover. Not helpful.

#150 D C on 05.03.22 at 8:45 pm

A day late, but that dog is adorkable :)