Tempted

Big week coming, kids. What an excellent time to turn off BNN and delete the Bloomberg app on your phone. If you set up a Google Alerts for the S&P or connected your FitBit to Yahoo Finance, well, chuck ‘em. You’ll live longer. Much we cannot do anything about is about to happen. And, as this blog has explained so assiduously of late, going to cash is just dumb.

The latest…

On Wednesday afternoon US interest rates take a leap higher. A half-point increase is baked in. Many believe it might be more. The Fed boss himself said a halfer was coming, and added that “it might make sense to front-end load” rates. That means several more fat increases in 2022, in the hope that the inflationary fires quell.

But there’s a vicious, costly war in Europe with no end in sight, Covid madness in China is further messing with the supply chain, more energy prices hikes are certain and political polarization augments as Biden is whacked in the mid-terms and Trump wannabe Pierre packs halls in Canada with angry, myopic people and homeless Millennials. To top it all off, Drake is now selling candles. Does that mean the lights will go out?

So, higher US rates in a few days. Still higher after that. Yields on 10-year US bonds will soon zip through 3%, which is a big deal. The Bank of Canada will increase again – another half – in four weeks. The chartered prime will then be closing on 4% and mortgages 5%, in their way now to maybe 6% this year with a stress test hurdle of 8%.

As your FitBit reported, the Dow dropped 900 points on Friday after a 600-point gain Thursday. Volatility abounds. The rate increases over the next few weeks and months will add to that, made worse by the Ruskie war and the ascent of tribalism now threatening the benefits of globalization.

In practical terms it means your portfolio will fluctuate (ignore it), the cost of your HELOC or variable-rate mortgage (unwisely chosen by a third of borrowers) will swell uncomfortably, inflation will get worse before cresting, some GICs will touch 4% (still losing money) and residential real estate will become the most visible victim.

Recently the DOM has doubled, from February to April. So as sale prices decline an average of 22% (in the GTA, soon everywhere) it takes twice as long to sell a home. Accepted offers are down. Showings are down. Offer nights often yield none. “What a calamity,” says a broker.

Human nature’s on full display. On the weekend Doug wrote about the perils of confirmation bias. Before that we warned you of recency bias. Now the big deal is FOOP – fear of buying an asset that is declining in value, because it may decline more. This irrationality applies equally to houses and financial securities. It’s why most people buy high, not low.

Currently the herd is thundering in one direction. Bearish sentiment is elevated. The fear-greed gauge is all red. In February stocks and houses hit all-time highs as excited buyers piled in. Ten weeks later, poof. Year/year RE sales in April – we will learn this week – were down 40%.

Stocks are now 12-20% cheaper. ETFs more affordable. Properties have shed a fifth of their value in major markets. Exactly what investors and homebuyers had wished for – quality assets at discounted values – have materialized. But sellers outnumber buyers, proving once again we’re our own worst enemies, unable to overcome emotion. We buy what everybody wants when it peaks. We shun what everybody fears when it declines.

Now, this is not my first rodeo.

Even in the short time this pathetic blog has been in existence there’s been a US real estate collapse, the failure of major Wall Street banks, a global credit crisis, an American debt ceiling crisis, a world-wide trade war, civil unrest, the rise of protectionism, a historic pandemic causing millions of deaths, a deep recession, 14% unemployment, historic government deficits and now the most intense war since 1945. Before that, even more grief. Like Nine Eleven, Y2K, Black Monday and Abba.

All passed. People who stayed calm, remained invested, bought what they could afford and focused on doing reasonable, prudent stuff did just fine. Time papered over the volatility. In contrast, folks whose greed made them buy at a market top or whose fear compelled them to bail in a storm paid a hefty price.

A doctor/scientist buddy was prescient about Covid and sold off his financial portfolio a month before the pandemic was declared. He avoided the 32% equity plunge that followed. A genius! Then he completely missed the 80% gain which came next, and still hasn’t found the courage to buy back in. On balance, he lost big. Far better to have stayed invested – turning off BNN and Bloomberg – and let time do its thing.

This week may test you. Don’t.

About the picture: “Reba is a border collie that lives a stress-free life on a ranch in the Okanagan Valley in BC,” writes Heather.   “She is a trained sheep herding dog and is fascinating to watch as she does her work.  She competes in dog trials and has done well.   She’s very focused and I have read that border collies are high up on the intelligence ladder.  She is my sister’s babe.”

Have a beast to share with the pack? Send it to me at ‘[email protected]’ Fame is free. – Garth

117 comments ↓

#1 etf guy on 05.01.22 at 2:49 pm

HI – Hold on to your preferreds or time to bail and move to bonds?

#2 Flop… on 05.01.22 at 2:50 pm

There’s probably a bunch of people waiting to be offered to live in a barn in Saskatchewan for a dollar.

I saw this rent to own program in Wolverhampton, England, yesterday, new properties where after living there for 25 years you are eligible to buy the property for just one pound.

It reminded my of an Australian dude’s experience of buying a run down home in Italy for one Euro.

It didn’t work out for him too well, he returned the property as it was going to take too much work, but the dream lived on and he bought a ‘premium’ house in the same area for a relatively cheap price as well.

Living in a new place in Wolverhampton, or fixing up a place in Sicily, where you might have to move a pot around the kitchen to catch a leak while you cook, tough decision but I would go with the fixer upper.

I’ve lived in the U.K and visited Agrigento and it’s environs.

I would prefer to live on the coast, mainly because when I lived in and visited that region I enjoyed swimming in the Mediterranean multiple times daily.

Out of the 1€ offerings this one looked like the best candidate, not that large, but that also translates to less work and money spent hopefully.

https://www.case1euro.it/properties/vicolo-giannino-18/

Buying, renting, doesn’t matter, it’s all overpriced relative to wages.

Whatever mental gymnastics you have to do to get to the place you want…

M47BC

————————————————————-

UK man who purchased abandoned house for €1 in Italy warns ‘it’s not for everyone’ as it takes ‘hard work’

“Mr McCubbin has now bought a premium house in Mussomeli for €8,000, in need of smaller renovations which will cost him €5,000.
He warned the €1 scheme “is not everyone” as it takes a lot of “hard work”.

“It’s a risk just because you are buying something that has been abandoned and hasn’t been taken care of. One of the things that goes is the roof – and then water leaks in.

“Whenever you buy these €1 houses you are taking on a bigger risk than if you buy what is called a premium house which hasn’t been abandoned.”

He advised those considering the scheme that they should “definitely” visit the property is being sold beforehand.

“Don’t think you’re going to get a bargain and then you’re going to renovate it cheaply and sell it on, you have to prepared to put in a lot of hard work to find the houses but also be prepared to fork out money for a house that does need a lot of work,” he said

https://inews.co.uk/news/world/1-euro-house-italy-danny-mccubbin-sicily-homes-property-1553318

$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$

“Buy your home in Sicily with only 1€

Is it really possible to buy a house for € 1? Yes, and it is a project wanted by the Municipality of Mussomeli, in Sicily. Buy your dream for € 1 in the fabulous town of the Sicilian hinterland, just a few kilometers from the enchanting beaches and the historic temples of Agrigento. In Mussomeli you will live the ancient Sicily, the real Sicily. Mussomeli is the city of the Manfredi’s Castle and traditions. In Sicily you will not only buy a house, but you will have the chance to experience our culture, our traditions, the slow and relaxed life of one of the most peaceful and safe lands in the world. Already 100 people have bought a house, what are you waiting for?”

https://www.case1euro.it

——————————————————————————-

“A NEWBUILD estate where people can buy homes for just £1 is so popular the neighbours never want to leave.

First-time buyers have swooped to bag bargain houses at the “dreamy” £34million Marches development in Wolverhampton, with 10 would-be homeowners fighting it out for every plot.

A total of 100 two, three and four-bed homes have been snapped up under the Help to Own scheme, where residents rent for 25 years before purchasing for a quid.

And properties are so in demand, even the show home has been sold off.
Inside the modern estate, where houses come with solar roofs and electric car charging points, wannabe homeowners have told how they are loving life in their very own “Poundland”.

https://www.thesun.co.uk/money/18422127/only-one-pound-newbuild-estate-britain/

#3 The Regulator on 05.01.22 at 2:59 pm

Abba will live on in hologram form for long after we all take our dirt naps. Mabey longer than stawk markets. Chickz dig Abba.

#4 PostTruthSociety on 05.01.22 at 2:59 pm

Garth, as you have written, a lot of debt has been financed by debt that was financed by debt that was financed by debt.

How do the big five protect themselves from a melt down?

#5 espressobob on 05.01.22 at 3:11 pm

This year’s stock market volatility is quite boring. Not even worth an overweight nibble.

Sitting back and laying in wait.

#6 Paddy on 05.01.22 at 3:11 pm

Perhaps a buying opportunity for some?
Could we see a 30% drop like we did in March/2020?

#7 Linda on 05.01.22 at 3:19 pm

‘Reba’ is a cutie! Border collies are indeed very intelligent bundles of energy. Her owners are wise to give her the outlet she requires & she looks like a very happy pup:)

Yes, those who have been waiting for prices to fall will now sit on the sidelines because they’ll be trying to time the bottom of the market. That applies to housing as well as stocks, bonds or other financial goods on offer. Meanwhile those who make emotional decisions will sell, locking in whatever losses they might have. I think it is the financial version of ‘fight or flight’ kicking in. Mostly flight. I can understand someone who may rely on their investments for income trying to stem the losses but if anyone doesn’t ‘need’ the money to cover the monthly bills would be better off staying on that bucking bronco of a market until it settles down to a placid pony ride.

#8 Søren Angst on 05.01.22 at 3:21 pm

The fear-greed gauge is all red. – Garth

One more CCW tick and it’ll be extreme.

https://edition.cnn.com/markets/fear-and-greed

I’m with you. Cheap. Will continue to buy and stay vested. Worked out well so far for my threadbare portfolio.

Time.

#9 TurnerNation on 05.01.22 at 3:27 pm

#26 John Turner Nation on 04.30.22 at 1:43 pm

^^When you read my post and hate yourself it’s because I use only the mainstream media ‘news’ links. So….Sub-consciously you know already that they are lying you to you. I just lay it out bare.
Amirite?


— According to CTV Ottawa teevee footage the Bikers are “Hateful”.
So…if you also ride a bike then maybe you too are supportive of a ‘H8’ group? Or at least a H8 symbol?
Do you see how tyranny works lads? You don’t get a choice.

— Food Supply. This is was in 2015.
What the?? You don’t say. The Long Game.

https://www.cargill.com/story/food-chain-reaction-simulation-ends-with-global-carbon-tax
ood
Chain Reaction crisis simulation ends with global carbon tax
Climate, hunger, civil unrest and spiking food prices came together at the Food Chain Reaction game in Washington DC this week. Cooperation mostly won the day.
November 12, 2015
On Monday and Tuesday, 65 international policymakers, academics, business and thought leaders gathered at the World Wildlife Fund’s headquarters in Washington DC to game out how the world would respond to a future food crisis.

#10 Overstock on 05.01.22 at 3:30 pm

What would happen if we just stopped buying crap?

Just hold out for one quarter, buy bare minimum needs only. Let these corporations stop turning inventory, start aging stock, slowing turns…

That would put an end to these pricing increases in no time.

We’re (consumers) too dumb and greedy to make that play. And so, by the balls they got ya because you need that new smartphone NOW!

#11 Arcticfox on 05.01.22 at 3:44 pm

It’ll be interesting to see if the dog will hunt once again when Fed goes full QE again(me thinks sooner then many suspect)..

#12 Søren Angst on 05.01.22 at 3:52 pm

#2 Flop…

Sweat equity Flop. A lost art and good articles.

Most want immediate gratification, you know, take powder, add water, mix, stick in fridge and 5 min later, presto!

Dessert.

Agrigento beautiful not on the sea but very close. I loved it especially nearby Scala de Turchi, this by a travel site:

https://www.lavalledeitempli.it/en/itineraries/agrigento/scala-turchi-turkish-steps/

[the White Cliffs of Dover have murky water, not even half the history nor do they have crystal clear, every blue green color imaginable Mare Nostrum swimming water as Flop said]

Click on upper left Valle dei Templi (Valley of the Temples) to see the ancient Greek ruins Agrigento is famous for.

There are as many Greek ruins in Italia as there are in Greece (if not more). Underrated for Greek temples is Paestum (my favorite), down the coast from Herculaneum.

Athena https://www.paestumsites.it/paestum/il-tempio-di-cerere-o-atena
Poseidon https://www.paestumsites.it/paestum/il-tempio-di-nettuno-o-poseidone
Hera https://www.paestumsites.it/paestum/il-tempio-di-hera

Amphitheatres in the above as well, then there is the one in Taormina, Sicilia, with Etna puffing away in view (Greek then Romans built on top of it, used for symphony, plays like the Greeks did, etc.):

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ancient_theatre_of_Taormina

Yet another amphitheatre in Siracusa, Sicilia (2nd largest in the World to one in Greece, if memory serves):

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Greek_Theatre_of_Syracuse

Sicilia is amazing people. Not Mario Puzo’s Mafia Sicilia anymore. Shhh! Tell no one.

I could go on…

—————–

Not

IL BEL PAESE

for nothing.

PS: That was just Sicilia, there are 19 other Regions in Il Bel Paese. Not all have homes for 1€ though.

#13 Buy Low Sell High on 05.01.22 at 4:07 pm

Mortgage Payment Calculator

https://dominionlending.ca/calculators/payment-amount.php

25 Year Amortization and Monthly Payments

$750,000 @2.5 % = $3,359.75 a month
$550,000 @5.5% = $3,357.15 a month

If one purchased a $1,000,000 property and put down $250,000, borrowing $750,000 @2.5% then said property could easily fall in value to $800,000 if a five year term gets to 5.5%.

Sobering!!

#14 I don’t know on 05.01.22 at 4:13 pm

Guaranteed the individual mentioned by our host, who missed out on the 80% gain post covid, is now busy explaining to us all how the recovery is “fake”, interest rates will go to 15%, and that the stock market will collapse by 50%.

We all know “why” this type of person holds their out-to-lunch view: it’s because they are hoping to right the mistakes of the past, and buy in cheap like they should have the first time.

They won’t, of course, and will continue to greedily assume markets will drop further. The rapidly degrading pile of cash they hold will continue to lose value as they miss the bottom, again. Expect a doubling down on the rhetoric once that occurs.

The same is true for real estate. If the greedy who missed the boat the first time were so serious about “affordability” they would be looking now, while there is some uncertainty in the air.

But they are not.

They are expecting the house they want, which is the same house everyone wants, will be 30% cheaper in the future. It won’t be. Rate hikes do not help with affordability. Let that sink in.

As an aside, everyone who bought in the last 20 years is way ahead and asleep anyways. Those who bought recently, took our host’s advice and locked in for five years, are also sound asleep and enjoying life. The only people paying attention to this are flippers and the extremely over leveraged, both a much smaller market than bears and renters assume.

Rate hikes will not help with affordability.

IDK

#15 Quintilian on 05.01.22 at 4:34 pm

Garth I can say unequivocally that I believe you are an honest man.
But I think you are probably forming your opinion on data-based info.

Caution is advised.

Some of the data is compiled and coloured commentary is added by people that only a few years I congregated with at the smoke pit at the corner of the high school field.
I can tell you, they have learned to check the boxes, and turn in the reports, which the senior staff receives with cajolery, because it is smart marketing.
Big picture people know at an intuitive level, that when the sugar high from the stimulus is metabolized, their will be a long nap.

Some of the curmudgeons on this blog have done well enough that even with the most recent losses, they would do well to go 90% on bonds right now.

#16 Dogs Not Barking on 05.01.22 at 4:35 pm

Interesting how CTV kept pumping the “hateful” and “violent” nature of the Rolling Thunder Rally by showing U.S footage of the Mongols MC (Hells Angel rival gang) from some nimrod’s TikTok account.

If CTV wasn’t pushing a Trudeau directed narrative they could have spent 5 seconds on Google to find the real story.

CTV made zero mention that Rolling Thunder is actually a Veterans association who supports POW-MIA and veteran’s rights.

Disgusting dishonesty by CTV. I hope they cancel themselves for misinformation.

#17 Sam on 05.01.22 at 4:41 pm

I’m a big fan of Pierre. Honest, factual and compassionate. Doesn’t talk in riddles like Justin or Chrystia and isn’t a fraud like Trump. He’s perfect for Canada and he’s got my vote. Voting is about the lesser evil anyhow. Like choosing between Bell or Rogers.

Tamara’s buddy. Just as balanced. – Garth

#18 Inflation on 05.01.22 at 4:41 pm

This is what 475K gets you in Austin Texas, or you could buy that 1.5 million townhouse in Stouffville plus the 1.5 hr commute that comes with it. If prices don’t move big time down in Toronto, you would be better off in the US, plus the weather, big time football and amazing music and barbecue. Texas has a higher GDP than Canada. If you have ant tech skills but not be a bad time to look around down south. Looks like Buffett is betting on oil prices to stay high for some time with those large Chevron purchases, will be interesting to see the price of BTC next week after Mr Buffett said he wouldn’t take the whole bunch of it for $25.

#19 Inflation on 05.01.22 at 4:42 pm

https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/15907-De-Peer-Ave-Austin-TX-78717/29575677_zpid/

#20 Lumber on 05.01.22 at 4:43 pm

We’re happy we renewed our 5 yr mortgage 3 years early last December. Our bank blended the remaining rate on our stupid-low mortgage with their best 10yr rate of 3%, allowing us to ‘lock it and leave it’ at 2.4% until our house is paid off in about 8 years.

#21 Reality Checks on 05.01.22 at 4:54 pm

2 Flop
Out of the 1€ offerings this one looked like the best candidate, not that large, but that also translates to less work and money spent hopefully.

https://www.case1euro.it/properties/vicolo-giannino-18/
——————-

Hey that one’s not too bad at all.

Of course in Canada those are marketed as “bring your decorating ideas” and sell for $1 million.

#22 mj on 05.01.22 at 5:04 pm

this could be the worst week of the year if a couple things happen. The market is expecting a 50 point increase. If the Fed goes higher, it won’t be good. Second, Putin told Pelosi don’t go to the Ukraine and she did. If he does something because she went, the market won’t like that.

#23 Doug in London on 05.01.22 at 5:23 pm

He avoided the 32% equity plunge that followed. A genius!
——————————————————-
If he was smart enough to bail out, why didn’t he get in when everything went on sale in March 2020? Even a dumb hick like me, who failed a college financial course, could see that was a rare buying opportunity, like the one 11 years earlier in March 2009.

Most people never return to a market they have ‘timed’ soon enough to reap the gains that always come upon recovery. Better to never exit. – Garth

#24 jess on 05.01.22 at 5:25 pm

those liberators seem also to be thieves

https://www.cnn.com/2022/05/01/europe/russia-farm-vehicles-ukraine-disabled-melitopol-intl/index.html

Some of the machinery was taken to a nearby village, but some of it embarked on a long overland journey to Chechnya more than 700 miles away. The sophistication of the machinery, which are equipped with GPS, meant that its travel could be tracked. It was last tracked to the village of Zakhan Yurt in Chechnya.

The equipment ferried to Chechnya, which included combine harvesters – can also be controlled remotely. “When the invaders drove the stolen harvesters to Chechnya, they realized that they could not even turn them on, because the harvesters were locked remotely,” the contact said.

========

#25 Doug t on 05.01.22 at 5:30 pm

More tribalism please – less globalization and the west’s desire to homogenize the whole planet into one massive boring bland vanilla sameness – I recall going to Edinburgh with my dad in 2000 and the Royal Mile just welcomed a Starbucks, the look on my poor Dad’s face was soul crushing –

That is hardly a definition of globalism. – Garth

#26 Doug in London on 05.01.22 at 5:30 pm

Not long ago pissed off Pierre was whining about high house prices, and how it’s all the Liberal Government’s fault. Just watch, if these higher interest rates that are coming hit house prices hard, he’ll be whining about that instead, and how it represents lost equity for owners. Of course that will also be the Liberal Government’s fault.

#27 Big Bucks on 05.01.22 at 5:31 pm

Gotta remember the Nikkei and FTSE are flat andeven down over the last 25-30 years.Japanese RE is also 1/2 what it was 32 years ago.Things can go down and stay down.With rising inflation and higher rates for years the North American markets over the next 10-15-20 years will not see the same spectacular numbers we have seen and a Dow of 32,000 could bounce around for years and still not be seen again by 2030.Nobody has the guts to say it but it happens.

Don’t bet against America. You’ll lose. – Garth

#28 TurnerNation on 05.01.22 at 5:35 pm

Control over Travel/Movements. Why the QR code.

.China Covid outbreak: Beijing residents must test negative to enter public spaces (bbc.co.uk)
.Beijing shuts dine-in services for holidays to stem outbreak (abcnews.go.com)
.China’s ‘zero-COVID’ restrictions curb May 1 holiday travel (foxnews.com)

— Spoiler: The EU pass is replacing this. The level of control was designed for permanence.

https://www.wantedinrome.com/news/italy-bids-farewell-to-covid-green-pass.html
“Green Pass no longer required in vast majority of places from 1 May as Italy eases mask mandate.

— But, Why.

https://brownstone.org/articles/why-the-pandemic-industrial-complex-wont-go-away/
Why the Pandemic-Industrial Complex Won’t Go Away
BY DEBBIE LERMAN MAY 1, 2022 5 MINUTE READ


— War on Middle Class. Began that cold winter week in March 2020 when independent small business were ordered shut down and bankrupted. Interest rates/debtors next.
Kanadians bizarrely, have embraced this textbook Kommunism with its endless “Rules” and medical treatments and prison-style lockdowns.
BTW the distaste toward truckers, bikers, really reinforces the disabusement of all things independence. Class Warfare?
What can’t everyone be passive, effete and just get a government job (sorry Flop :) ) or take the UBI? Hard work is for suckers.

#29 NOSTRADAMUS on 05.01.22 at 5:41 pm

CRIMINALS ARE TARGETING REAL ESTATE SELLERS.
With tough times just around the corner, I question realtors advice to use social media posts (video) to exclusively advertise the sale of your home. In the majority of cases they seem obsessed with highlighting the expensive chattels in your home. In my opinion this could be one of the reasons real estate sellers are being targeted by criminals. The main issue surfaces as soon as someone knows the assets exist. So if your realtor is posting pictures of your paintings, jewelry and antiques in the background, you could be asking for big, big trouble. As to video, the moment the sales video goes live you open yourself up to a possible robbery, home invasion, assault or worse. For a criminal, there is no guess work involved. Especially troubling are the walk through videos, they can see where all the high value objects are located. The same applies to dogs, and alarm systems. It’s almost like a to good to be true, home invaders shopping list.
People are coming out of the pandemic to rising crime rates, robberies, assaults and worse. Now the question, are realtors really working in your best interest protecting you, your family and possessions by highlighting your wealth? Or are they employing the tried and true comparison sales technique? How does this work? The advertising media has spent countless millions heavily promoting the concept of comparison shopping in order to entice you to buy. The message as always, you to can have it all, if only you step up and buy the product being promoted. You may think, I’m not rich or famous, so I’m okay. Think again, there are many wanna be robbers just starting their careers. Add drugs to the mix and you have a serious situation about unfold. Something to seriously consider as you sip on a glass of wine watching in high definition, the world wide sales video of your home. Are realtors really that concerned with your personal safety??? Or??? Hold on, someone at the door.

#30 jess on 05.01.22 at 5:42 pm

https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/c/c2/Map_of_earthquakes_in_Italy.png

Why Italy Is So Prone to Earthquakes
…”“Italy has a medium-high seismic hazard, very high vulnerability and an extremely high exposure, due to population density and its heritage, which is almost unique in the world,” he says.

“On the other side,” he adds, “Italy has one of the most advanced building codes for new constructions, state-of-the-art in the field. The challenge is really to assess the seismic safety of existing, old buildings and prioritize interventions for retrofitting and strengthening.”

https://time.com/4464118/italy-earthquake-seismologist-explains-why-common/

#31 Maybe on 05.01.22 at 5:49 pm

Hmmm. I am wondering if now or soon might be a good time to initiate smith maneuver??

If you mean borrowing against real estate equity to invest, no. And it’s not called a Smith Maneuver. – Garth

#32 Big Bucks on 05.01.22 at 5:51 pm

Nothing wrong with loading up on a little bigger cash position at this point and looking for better deals in emerging economies.North America is one expensive place to live,do business and just survive and it ain’t gonna get any cheaper.Even if RE comes off 30-40% over the next 2-3 years it’s still gonna cost a bundle to carry(higher rates,taxes,furnishings,repairs,electricity etc)I know the slogan don’t bet against America well but is it really as true now?We’ll see …said the blind man

#33 jess on 05.01.22 at 5:51 pm

Stouffville man charged in connection with K-W rental scam
A total of 36 victims were identified, with the collective financial losses totaling over $30kPolice say between November 2021 and February 2022, fake advertisements for rental properties in the area were posted on a buy and sell website.

#34 AACI Homedog on 05.01.22 at 5:55 pm

Took some profits a few weeks ago, & waiting with 8% in cash to re-deploy…bring it on…

#35 Jenna on 05.01.22 at 5:57 pm

Giggles….

“In practical terms it means your portfolio will fluctuate (ignore it)”

should we also use this logic for real estate…you…because…cash is foolish.

#36 Globalism is Garbage on 05.01.22 at 6:17 pm

That is hardly a definition of globalism. – Garth

Globalism

Uniform shit and corruption everywhere, lol only at PFIZER/MODERNA, CRAP franchises and garbage corporations catering to the wants of an infantilized population of lemmings in USSA, EU, CANADA that always vote their DEMISE

LOOK AT USA, CANADA, UK, FRANCE.

An assortment of first class imbecile LEASERS running a decaying wanna be empire that will be defeated by the rest of the world

Are all the normal people at the cottage? This is embarrassing. – Garth

#37 crowdedelevatorfartz on 05.01.22 at 6:18 pm

@#28 TurnerNation
“China Covid outbreak: Beijing residents must test negative to enter public spaces (bbc.co.uk)
.Beijing shuts dine-in services for holidays to stem outbreak (abcnews.go.com)
.China’s ‘zero-COVID’ restrictions curb May 1 holiday travel (foxnews.com)”

++++
Yeah.
The “Total Lockdown” of China continues.
27,000,000 people in Shanghai locked up for 5 weeks and now 20,000,000 in Beijing face the same rules.
The proletariat aint happy.
The economy is getting drop kicked.
Let’s see what the next few months brings with Putins’ Generals seething at their losses.
China’s people seething at their economic losses.
Canadian voters seething at their bosses.

Good time to have a bit of extra cash to invest and no debt…….
Circling vultures looking for carrion.

#38 Doug t on 05.01.22 at 6:22 pm

That is hardly a definition of globalism. – Garth

It’s the slow decay – bit by bit by bit – next thing you know the world looks the same, tastes the same and sounds the same

They wouldn’t mind some of that monolithic sameness in Ukraine these days. Instead, they are suffering through tribalism. – Garth

#39 Shawn on 05.01.22 at 6:22 pm

Starbucks on Royal Mile year 2000?

#25 Doug t on 05.01.22 at 5:30 pm

More tribalism please – less globalization and the west’s desire to homogenize the whole planet into one massive boring bland vanilla sameness – I recall going to Edinburgh with my dad in 2000 and the Royal Mile just welcomed a Starbucks, the look on my poor Dad’s face was soul crushing –

***********************
Imagine if instead he had recognized that it might be a good idea to buy and hold Starbucks.

When I have been in Europe several times I noticed three brands were everywhere:

Coke, McDonalds and Starbucks.

Another good time to buy Starbucks by the way is tomorrow. I don’t know about the other two.

#40 willworkforpickles on 05.01.22 at 6:24 pm

DELETED

#41 Captain Uppa on 05.01.22 at 6:25 pm

I just keep plowing in the money every week directly to my 70/30. And I will continue to do so.

Any thoughts on how the downturn of real estate applies to land? Or does that only dip slightly? Just curious.

#42 Kool Aid on 05.01.22 at 6:32 pm

“This week may test you. Don’t.”

Don’t buy? I see a slew of individual stocks worthy of contrarian consideration.

This week may test Leaf fans.

#43 fishman on 05.01.22 at 6:38 pm

Those 4 RMC kids driving into the water & drowning reminds me of a similar incident in Ontario over 50 years ago now. My fisherman travelling partner was in the RCR’s ( Royal Canadian Regiment), about the same age as those kids, enlisted men not officers. He gets an order to take a truck & couple of men & do some job. So they head to town, buy some whiskey & get drunk. My friend is driving & he rolls the truck. The outside guy gets killed while he & the other guy are ok. My friend says “put the dead guy behind the wheel & say he was driving.” My buddy said the sergeant knew something was wrong & grilled them hard, but they both stuck to the story.
I don’t know what happened in that lake, could have been a totally freak occurrence.. But four Canadian Military Officers killing themselves? Shouldn’t somebody maybe have taken charge? Isn’t that what their trained to do?

#44 Jake on 05.01.22 at 6:46 pm

Looking for 29k and change on the Dow before we find a bottom effectively wiping out covid gains. Should come quick, that’s how it usually is with market selloffs.

#45 Penny Henny on 05.01.22 at 6:56 pm

#34 AACI Homedog on 05.01.22 at 5:55 pm
Took some profits a few weeks ago, & waiting with 8% in cash to re-deploy…bring it on…

////////////////////

You and me doggie, except I’m 44% cash.

#46 T Rex and the dinosaur clique on 05.01.22 at 6:57 pm

Turner Nation:

Trudeau is becoming very predictable.

Go to the W.E.F. website.

That is where all his policies come from. Build back better. Carbon tax. Farm shut downs to prevent fertilizer use. It’s all there. He just copies it.

Where he differs is implementation. Trudeau will not enforce a climate policy anywhere east of Ontario.

He will also bend over backward to ensure any climate policy forced on Ontario is done in a way not to annoy or inconvenience us.

Where he gets hardcore mean is in Manitoba, Saskatchewan and Alberta. There he is ruthless. He hammers them. Total destruction. Full out W.E.F. great reset policy with no hold back.

In BC, he will not enforce and will give them waivers and exceptions.

That is Trudeau.

Please go away. Take Bill with you in the truck. – Garth

#47 Bill on 05.01.22 at 7:09 pm

DELETED (Anti-vaccine, pro-Pierre)

#48 Mr Fox on 05.01.22 at 7:11 pm

So if the people know that next week the markets are going go down, why not selling and re-buying in a week or two? Is it about realizing gains? What if I have realized all my gains in December due to tax purposes and now I can realize some loses which from a tax perspective will work this again this year?

#49 AACI Homedog on 05.01.22 at 7:12 pm

Pierre is pro trucker rally mentality & against how the pandemic has been handled. For those reasons, I’m out.

#50 Stealth on 05.01.22 at 7:23 pm

Ok, Bloomberg uninstalled, no watch, no bnn, implemented.
What is next?

Thank you

#51 T-Rev on 05.01.22 at 7:25 pm

@ #10 Overstock on 05.01.22 at 3:30 pm
Bingo my friend. The corps are looooooving this right now. Want a car? Sure, at full list, and we’ll get it to you three months from now. IMO there’s very little incentive for them to increase production- after all, people are still buying the same number of cars, only now the manufactures have created an artificial shortage to drive up prices and stabilize sales. No more wondering how Q3 revenue is going to be, sales are already locked in so it’s easier to plan the business. No more discounts. They’re loving the hammer they have.

I work for a big multinational in a booming sector, they are “sold out” despite the fact their sales are 20% lower than 2014 peak and yet still have the same manufacturing capacity. The new mantra is all about price at the expense of volume. They have coordinated a somewhat fictitious shortage, through careful market signaling and vertical supply chains.

You’re absolute right that what needs to happen is everyone needs to stop buying stuff for a quarter. Fix it, go without, find an alternative, but do not buy new. It’s the only way to reset this thing, because the current state is simply too attractive to the corps and they would like nothing more than for it to continue indefinitely. their asset values, margins, and P&L predictability increase in this environment.

Stop buying sh*t.

#52 Toronto on 05.01.22 at 7:34 pm

City spokesperson defends records kept on residents
In a statement this week, spokesman Brad Ross said the city keeps documented records of encampment residents “to ensure that they are offering the appropriate services that meet their unique needs along with access to indoor space.”

The city also compiled aerial maps of all the tents in the park, each identified with a number and related to each resident.

A.J. Withers, co-founder of FactCheckToronto.ca, the homeless advocacy group that was involved with sharing the documents with The Canadian Press, said the files indicate the city had been negotiating with the homeless in bad faith.

#53 AK on 05.01.22 at 7:44 pm

“What an excellent time to turn off BNN and delete the Bloomberg app on your phone.”
======================

Couldn’t agree more:

https://finbold.com/commodity-expert-warns-biggest-losers-in-a-stock-market-drop-will-be-bitcoin-copper-and-oil/

#54 april on 05.01.22 at 7:48 pm

#14 – Right….you don’t know.

#55 VladTor on 05.01.22 at 7:49 pm

By the way – today “International Workers’ Day”

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/International_Workers%27_Day

Congratulations to all who’s working now and who worked hard and retired now!

Good reason to explain your wife why you today a little bit drunk!

#56 A01 on 05.01.22 at 8:11 pm

DELETED

#57 canuck on 05.01.22 at 8:45 pm

Tamara’s buddy. Just as balanced. – Garth
_____________________________________________

She has something Jagmeet and Justin don’t have… guts

Globalism is a failure and is dying. Get used to tribalism.

#58 Ponzius Pilatus on 05.01.22 at 9:04 pm

39 Shawn on 05.01.22 at 6:22 pm
Starbucks on Royal Mile year 2000?

#25 Doug t on 05.01.22 at 5:30 pm

More tribalism please – less globalization and the west’s desire to homogenize the whole planet into one massive boring bland vanilla sameness – I recall going to Edinburgh with my dad in 2000 and the Royal Mile just welcomed a Starbucks, the look on my poor Dad’s face was soul crushing –

***********************
Imagine if instead he had recognized that it might be a good idea to buy and hold Starbucks.

When I have been in Europe several times I noticed three brands were everywhere:

Coke, McDonalds and Starbucks.

Another good time to buy Starbucks by the way is tomorrow. I don’t know about the other two.
————
Very sad.
So you travel 6 thousand miles and all you see is Coke, McDonalds and Starbucks.
Usually, I only use McDonalds for the wash rooms.
But last time I was there, they were charging for it.

#59 James on 05.01.22 at 9:12 pm

“Rolling thunder in Ottawa”

Hmm.

CEF, are you visiting the National Capital?

Please wear a diaper, thanks.

#60 Joe on 05.01.22 at 9:20 pm

Here is a trick question

whats the difference between CNN BNN and The Greater Fool Blog?

Slobber. – Garth

#61 Dog Not Barking on 05.01.22 at 9:30 pm

Ottawa streets look cleaner than when I was there on holidays a few years ago. Maybe Rolling Thunder should send Ottawa a bill for cleaning up the city.

Only damage I saw was from Antifa spray painting a church.

Canadian media was horrified that nothing happened despite their best efforts to foment destruction. Shame on them!

#62 Globalism is Collectivism on 05.01.22 at 10:07 pm

Why do I get the feeling that “Globalism” is the 21st Century term for the old discarded Marxist term “Collectivism”?

They both are run by Elites far removed from the place of production, both have Elites who think that they alone understand what is best for society, both want unchecked power for Elites to direct the means of production in a society, and both view basic human motivation as a bug, not a feature of the system.

Explain to me where I’m wrong.

#63 Doug t on 05.01.22 at 10:09 pm

They wouldn’t mind some of that monolithic sameness in Ukraine these days. Instead, they are suffering through tribalism. – Garth

Oh Garth – always trying so hard to be right ALL THE TIME – everyone has different takes accept it – your not always right but boy you can’t help but try your hardest and make sure we all know it

Actually, I’m right. Just accept it. – Garth

#64 Outrage on 05.01.22 at 10:14 pm

Like I said there is no need to stay in the blood bath .Buy back in few weeks or months. I’ll be selling the rest of my etfs this week so I can buy back cheaper for higher yield and more shares. Welcome the crash as a good thing !!

#65 baloney Sandwitch on 05.01.22 at 10:19 pm

Not worried Garth. Another normal week for the stock market. Thanks for the blog and putting things in perspective.
https://i.imgur.com/6DnrH93.jpeg

#66 Summertime on 05.01.22 at 10:26 pm

Few points on my part:

1. How is increase of rates of 0.5 % a big deal with rates going to 1.5 % when real inflation is north of 15 %, felt by the poor more like 18-20 % and CPI goes towards 8 %?

For inflation to be cured we need rates to be positive in real terms, when are rates going to double digits, then it will be a normal deal, not even a big deal.

2. On the ‘affordable’ ETFs and investments – that was the case from 10-15 years ago.

Currently primarily due to bad policies of BoC and politicians, majority of the population is stuck with huge debt load, very expensive cost of living, including services, essentials – energy, food.

So how exactly are those investments going to happen when people hardly survive financially?

3. I keep hearing that the economy ‘grows’, people getting richer feeling etc. and all I can see is people who can not afford normal housing, that previous generations easily could or rent, struggling with daily bills including food and energy.

The question here is: Is that ‘growth’ organic or is it a fake, inflation driven, debt based, number crunching, manipulated fraud?

There was a posting a few days ago about a guy in a crappy townhouse in Mississauga that has not been renovated for decades, with outstanding huge mortgage, who feels ‘rich’ due to the sole valuation of his house.

Somebody enlighten me how exactly is that ‘rich’, G7 standard of living and other verbal crap spawn daily by the media and statistics.

That ‘richness’ is solely based on fake valuations due to excessive debt load and on the total unaffordability of housing by new entrants on the market due to the total collapse of labour compensations.

And now the plan is to ‘fix it all’ with excessive inflation that we intentionally severely underestimate and that kills absolutely any remains of standard of living by making rent, energy, food unaffordable for the average Joe?

How about the retirees and people on fixed income whos income is ‘indexed generously’ by 2-3 % and the price of wholesale food worldwide in the meantime increased by 40 % in a year?

What will happen with the food prices if the expected shortage of fertilizers materializes?

Where is the wealth that could drive organic growth coming from to the markets? It is just a fake nominal wealth resulting in fake inflation driven growth?

And if the whole point is about preservation of capital, then is the stock market sufficient? On the bonds ‘yielding’ 3 % with inflation 5-6 times that I won;t even comment.

#67 Tom from Mississauga on 05.01.22 at 10:26 pm

Globalization is the alliance America bribed up to fight the Cold War. America will take a trade deficit with you in return for writing your security policy. The Cold War ended 30 years ago and globalization is running on inertia, wherever a wrench gets thrown in, it ends. Canada’s is powerless to stop it and best bet is focusing it’s trade through NAFTA and South America. All individual stocks I own operate in this hemisphere.

#68 A.C on 05.01.22 at 10:28 pm

https://creastats.crea.ca/board/edmo

Edmonton got 35% increase in house listings in March 22 from March 22. Thars a HUGE increase no???

We are moving towards a buyers market no?

#69 Summertime on 05.01.22 at 10:39 pm

The base theme of this blog since 2010 has been the overblown house prices.

In the meantime the house valuations on most markets, except Alberta increased 3-4 times!

And I keep hearing that there will be no crash?

How is that possible in real terms?

The only logical explanations is close to total destruction of currency through inflation.

While compensations are barely increasing and we face the worse inflation of generations.

Somebody has some explanation to do and I do not accept the official political correct ‘sorry, we were wrong, suck it up and move on’ crap. Who are those responsible and when will they be made accountable?

#70 IHCTD9 on 05.01.22 at 10:52 pm

#57 canuck on 05.01.22 at 8:45 pm
Tamara’s buddy. Just as balanced. – Garth
_____________________________________________

She has something Jagmeet and Justin don’t have… guts

Globalism is a failure and is dying. Get used to tribalism.
————-

I’m about as anti-Trudeau as it gets around here, and wore my knuckles smooth a long time ago. But globalization ain’t ending. It’s the next logical step in an economic efficiency evolution that spans our entire history as the human race. It’s been working great up till now.

I don’t like a lot of what comes with it either, but trust me – a little honest math will show you you’re better for it. In fact, if you’re a home owning Canuck 45+, you’ve won the lottery like few folks who have ever lived. You can even thank Trudeau for a good chunk of your wealth. Got a stash in a B+D? How’d it do over the last 2 years? Consumer goods (pre-pandemic) are laughably cheap these days.

Just understand the rhetoric and politicking, and separate that from the real world results. If you can do that, you may come away looking at things in a different light.

#71 IHCTD9 on 05.01.22 at 11:31 pm

#14 I don’t know on 05.01.22 at 4:13 pm

Rate hikes will not help with affordability.

IDK
————

Sure they will. Rate hikes drop prices which means the DP gets smaller too. The DP has been THE major stumbling block for fthb’s, prompting cash injections from the BoM, HELOC’s, group buyers, and Government tax shelters. Granted, the monthly may not change a whole lot, but they seemed to have always been much less problematic to buyers than the ubiquitous high 5 or even 6 figure DP.

More interesting will be the emergence of fear. This is where things could get ugly. These hikes are coming thick and fast, and brigading a crowd who have never seen anything like it. This time, and for the first time ever, we are entering into potential serious correction territory with the Internet and social media in full swing. Fear amplifies and travels like lightning. Once this stuff starts grabbing headlines and news feeds across the board – look out.

#72 HUNGRY BEAR on 05.01.22 at 11:31 pm

House across the street had an open house today. Asking is 749k. My realtor just called me to let me know 4 offers have already been put on the house and all over asking. He’ll give me the numbers after closing on Wednesday.

I asked him about the interest rates and he replied “there’s just not enough supply, people are getting in to whatever they can get.”

Apparently the construction companies can’t get the supplies they need to build homes.

#73 China&Russia betting against America on 05.01.22 at 11:58 pm

Re #27 Big Bucks
Don’t bet against America. You’ll lose. – Garth
==============================

China and Russia are going for the kill.

Russia gold and energy backed rubble coming in one week.

#74 IHCTD9 on 05.02.22 at 12:09 am

#62 Globalism is Collectivism on 05.01.22 at 10:07 pm
Why do I get the feeling that “Globalism” is the 21st Century term for the old discarded Marxist term “Collectivism”?

They both are run by Elites far removed from the place of production, both have Elites who think that they alone understand what is best for society, both want unchecked power for Elites to direct the means of production in a society, and both view basic human motivation as a bug, not a feature of the system.

Explain to me where I’m wrong.
——-

Business owners want to sell you products at the best price. They contract out the manufacturing to a developing nation where labour is dirt cheap. The DN in turn sources their raw materials and energy where they are obtained for the lowest price. If you buy from China, they will ship it right to your business in Canada for peanuts. You then buy these products for a price so cheap, that when they break, it’s cheaper to just go buy another one than have it repaired locally.

I paid 800.00 for a colour 27” CRT TV in the 90’s. Pre-Covid, you could buy a 27” LED flatscreen at the grocery store for 99.00

I think the “elites” would rather I still have to pay 800.00 no? The “elites” have no choice today, if they did business like they did in the 60’s, that 27” TV would cost you 3 grand. That’s called being “uncompetitive”.

This all may change again as human labour is largely eliminated from manufacturing. Maybe stuff could be made dirt cheap right here in lights-out plants where robots do all the work. We’d have an advantage as we’ve got every raw material can name right here within our borders.

If I had to guess, “the means of production” will become less concentrated in the future. Small groups will be able to do big things, and as the global labour costs level out through automation, robotics, AI, etc… and standards of living and wealth coalesce globally, there might be hundreds of millions of international businesses all competing for global dollars. And there will be a lot more of those dollars to be had. The bulk of the planet is still dirt poor today (but slowly getting less so).

I wouldn’t worry about the “elites”, they seem to be doing a bang up job so far. Everything has got better, cheaper, and we’re spoiled for choice.

#75 Nonplused on 05.02.22 at 12:21 am

Jeez, we are still talking about 3% on the 10 year as if that’s something weird.

It’s time to admit that Putin’s war has had little to do with inflation, at least so far. The gas is still flowing, except to Poland because they figured somehow the war meant they didn’t have to pay for it. Pretty much all the factors were in play before Russia invaded.

We got carbon taxes, drilling restrictions, regulations, fertilizer shortages, shipping problems, supply chain shenanigans, an ongoing drought in the west that looks to be even worse than last year, even more corn being diverted to fuel (and likely to void many engine warranties), mysterious fires at food plants, lockdowns in China (what do they know that we don’t?), sanctions here there and everywhere, asset seizures of sovereign nations reserves, chip shortages, blocked up ports, and billions being spent giving arms to the Russians aka Afghanistan withdrawal style. Not to mention all the cash handouts.

Inflation is set in in a multifactored way. An interest rate rise here or there won’t stop it at this point, everything must be repriced to account for all the new money. Prices are going a lot higher before it ends. A half point here and a half point there isn’t going to stop it. 3% on the ten year is still cheap. How can you make any money lending to the government at those rates, when inflation and taxes has been higher than that for 20 years now? 6% on the 10 year will maybe approach fair value. By then a good steak will be $50 a kg.

Buy all the things.

#76 Doug t on 05.02.22 at 12:45 am

Actually, I’m right. Just accept it. – Garth

Alrighty lol

#77 Midnight’s on 05.02.22 at 1:40 am

If anyone is looked for some great reads on the real ties Canada has with the rest of the world. I suggest these books and author. Not this water version of what they would like you to believe. Since we had a fabulous post on personal biases, and one sided stories that don’t add up. I find it interesting, well I believe it’s even a quote, not to trust the person that got you into the problem to get you out.
Matthew J.L. Ehret and 1 more
The British Roots of the Deep State Exposed: A New Trans Pacific Alliance May Now Take Shape (Canadian Patriot Book 18)
And he’s HEAVILY published.:-)

#78 Jane24 on 05.02.22 at 1:44 am

No don’t buy Starbucks shares now. This is just the kind of item that is a frill, easy to cut back. I have noted that on our local sea wall, folk are no longer sitting holding Costa Coffee cups but a thermos from home with their own coffee in it. Saves them 7 pounds. Open your eyes, the frills in life are being cut back. Major clothes chains over here have started summer sales 2 months early to get the stock sold through and get some money in the bank. Too dangerous to wait for the traditional July kick-off.

Plus TO RE is indeed dead. My 65 year old brother who has been late to the party all his life is going to sell his townhouse in June after a reno. He wants to catch the top of the RE party which happened in mid-Feb. Multiple this beloved but deluded man by a few thousand and you can see where the RE market is going. The greater fools to buy are gone.

Both observations are canaries in that fabled coal mine.

#79 Jane24 on 05.02.22 at 2:23 am

Now my other brother in Brampton has emailed to say they are meeting with a RE agent tonight to get their townhouse listed to catch the top of the market that happened 10 weeks ago! Multiply this by thousands of families and the TO area RE market is going to flood out with listings and much lower prices. Both brothers want to sell for the fabled mega bucks and then rent for a while. Sigh!

#80 Jennifer on 05.02.22 at 3:08 am

Garth:

I totally agree, buy low. However, for those who have invested in stocks early enough to make serious CASH over the years, I would say take some profits now, and buy when on sale. Stocks are NOT cheap historically.

To sell, not because you are PANICKING, you are doing a strategic decision.When you are looking at the facts, like rising interest rates, inflation for the next couple of years, you should change direction.

Cash is NOT trash! I hold cash as opportunity presents itself. When things go on SALE, I am there to sweep it up.

To hold on and seeing things going down is one thing, that’s fine with me. But, at the same time raise money and wait for opportunities to buy.

#81 Michelle on 05.02.22 at 3:24 am

Oh please IHCTD9. You, like all the other anti-Trudeau
blaming him for everything. Before he came to power, Harper was spending money, and house prices were going up.

This country was NOT prepared for COVID-19, because under Harper leadership, Conservatives did not stock up enough of anything. Not enough masks, gloves….
Do you remember Conservatives budgets? Trying to make more people homeowners? Instead, prices were going up, interest rates going down.

I don’t care for Liberals, but Conservatives who seem to pretend they are pro-family, anti-abortion, pro-business, anti-union, don’t believe that we need to clean up air pollution….Forget it, they give me a bigger headache.

#82 Fortune500 on 05.02.22 at 7:15 am

A couple of points …

If the doctor waits for these increases he probably can jump back in at the same point, maybe better. No?

Those who waited to buy property probably had their money in the markets. Which are way down. And interest rates are going way up. So is that a win?

#83 Joe Lalonde on 05.02.22 at 7:23 am

DELETED

#84 Concerned Citizen on 05.02.22 at 8:03 am

U.S. market cap to GDP is still ~200% – the historical mean is more like ~100%. Obviously there are many a world beater compay in the U.S., and profit margins have gone up over time, but still – that’s a considerable discrepancy. Valuations are still very high on a historical basis across the board. The only stocks that tend to have low P/Es have huge amounts of debt, and will be paying more in interest the higher rates go.

Remember that the S&P 500 literally doubled from March 2020 to mid 2021, and surged more like ~40% from pre-COVID highs. A tepid downturn of ~13% from all-time highs does little to remove all that excess.

I don’t know where stocks are going – no one does, except perhaps the central bankers – but I hardly think this market constitutes a sale. Stocks are still exceedingly expensive, IMO. Just like homes. They don’t call it an everything bubble for no reason…

#85 crowdedelevatorfartz on 05.02.22 at 8:16 am

@#73 Russia’s “Rubble” and China’s Communist
“Russia gold and energy backed rubble coming in one week.”

+++
Sooo.
The world is going to dump the US greenback and do what?
Invest all their money with a murderous dictator who was a low level KGB troll in a failed communist country OR
Invest in a ruthless Communist dictatorship that is currently arresting or silencing its billionaire entrepreneurs….

The US may not be perfect but I’ll stick with that system until something better comes along.

#86 crowdedelevatorfartz on 05.02.22 at 8:20 am

@#81 Michelle
“Do you remember Conservatives budgets? ”
+++

Yes.

Not one of them DOUBLED our NATIONAL DEBT in two years.
Harper was a prick but he wasn’t a self absorbed, mirror gazing, hyperventilating, spendthrift with delusions of grandeur.

#87 IHCTD9 on 05.02.22 at 8:36 am

#81 Michelle on 05.02.22 at 3:24 am
Oh please IHCTD9. You, like all the other anti-Trudeau
blaming him for everything. Before he came to power, Harper was spending money, and house prices were going up.

This country was NOT prepared for COVID-19, because under Harper leadership, Conservatives did not stock up enough of anything. Not enough masks, gloves….
Do you remember Conservatives budgets? Trying to make more people homeowners? Instead, prices were going up, interest rates going down.

I don’t care for Liberals, but Conservatives who seem to pretend they are pro-family, anti-abortion, pro-business, anti-union, don’t believe that we need to clean up air pollution….Forget it, they give me a bigger headache.
——-

So vote Lib then, I ain’t stopping ya.

In fact, my bank account and house are huge fans of Trudeau. They both keep telling me the exact same stuff you just did for some reason.

#88 crowdedelevatorfartz on 05.02.22 at 8:43 am

“Victim Blaming” reaches new lows … ?

https://nationalpost.com/news/canada/excerpt-how-we-charity-says-it-became-a-victim-of-trudeau-liberals-errors?comments=&__vfz=medium%3Dstandalone_content_recirculation_with_ads

#89 Chinese lockdowns on 05.02.22 at 8:51 am

Something Weird Is Going On In China
China’s crackdown on covid infections has reached levels so bizarre I have to ask the question: Are their lockdowns really about covid, or are they hiding something else?

The death rate of covid in China is impossible to calculate accurately because they have never released proper data that can be confirmed. However, almost everywhere else in the world we see a median infection fatality rate of 0.27% for covid; meaning, over 99.7% of people in the world on average have nothing to fear in terms of dying from the virus. But in China, the CCP is acting as if they are dealing with the Black Plague. Why?

Lockdowns have resulted in food shortages across the country as supply chains become strained and manufacturing remains shut in many cases. The story many westerners are not hearing much about, though, is the fact that Chinese exports have essentially been frozen. This is very important so I think it needs emphasis – Over 1 IN 5 container ships IN THE WORLD are now backed up in Chinese ports due to their covid lockdowns. This is incredible.

Why would China do this over a virus we all know is not dangerous to the vast majority of people? Why institute the worst lockdown in the country so far and starve their own people when the majority of Western governments have now given up on their pandemic fear mongering and the forced vaccination agenda?

I would suggest the possibility that China might already be engaging in an economic war that many Americans and Europeans don’t even realize is going on. This may be a beta test for a shut down of exports to the US and Europe, or it is an incremental shutdown that is meant to become permanent. The bottleneck on trade may also be a precursor to a Chinese invasion of Taiwan.

Go back to playing Fortnite. – Garth

#90 toronto1 on 05.02.22 at 9:11 am

#79 Jane24 on 05.02.22 at 2:23 am

Wow! you are correct, just had a quick look at at realtor for inventory and its massive.. huge new listings in the last 2-3 weeks since i last checked in the GTA

a lot still holding out for Feb prices, it looks like anyone that has any inclination of selling in the next 6-9 months is listing now before the next round or two of rate hikes

things could get ugly….. sooner or later a few of those thousands of listings will accept lower offers setting a new low and repeating itself over and over again.

confounded by the fact that sales are way down, will be an interesting 6 months for sure.

Same with the money markets….i feel like the FED will have to do at least one heavy move of .75 to 1.0 to just stay relevant as US inflation is worse then us, don’t know if it will be this week or not but either way the markets are not liking any of it.

#91 The Regulator on 05.02.22 at 9:42 am

DELETED

#92 T on 05.02.22 at 9:50 am

#75 Nonplused on 05.02.22 at 12:21 am
Jeez, we are still talking about 3% on the 10 year as if that’s something weird.

It’s time to admit that Putin’s war has had little to do with inflation, at least so far. The gas is still flowing, except to Poland because they figured somehow the war meant they didn’t have to pay for it. Pretty much all the factors were in play before Russia invaded.

————

That’s not how it played out, and you know this.

Good on Poland for sticking to the terms of the agreement and not bowing to Russia’s demands of paying in rubles.

#93 T on 05.02.22 at 9:54 am

#89 Chinese lockdowns on 05.02.22 at 8:51 am

Garth, I don’t know how you put up with the constant feed of nonsense many commentator spew here daily.

Many have lost grip of reality. It’s to imagine how they function in the real world, thinking everything is a conspiracy or contains some hidden agenda.

Just imagine what I delete. – Garth

#94 Dharma Bum on 05.02.22 at 10:25 am

#14 IDK

As an aside, everyone who bought in the last 20 years is way ahead and asleep anyways.
———————————————————————————————————-

I bought in 1985. Still live in it.

Luckily, I also got the urge to buy homes in Toronto in 2007 to rent out. 3 in the same year.

That worked out by sheer dumb luck. Pre-house boom.
I had zero clue. Just wanted to do something different.

Dumped all those by 2017. Dealing directly with tenants was a total nightmare. Especially at the low end. Scammers, grifters, drifters, hucksters, hustlers, and deadbeats.

Is there something going on now?

Yawwwwwwwnnnnnnnnnn……

I need a nap.

#95 Gravy Train on 05.02.22 at 10:26 am

#75 Nonplused on 05.02.22 at 12:21 am
[…] Buy all the things.

Get off my lawn!

#96 Dharma Bum on 05.02.22 at 10:37 am

#55 Vlad Tor

Good reason to explain your wife why you today a little bit drunk!
———————————————————————————————————-

Thanks Vlad!

But how do I explain the rest of the week? And the week after that?

Huh?

#97 Doug in London on 05.02.22 at 10:48 am

So, what’s coming for the stock markets? My crystal ball looks like the one, made of black ebony that disappeared from a local bowling alley long ago before the lockdowns. Needless to say, I don’t trust it. So, what to do? Back in the early 1990s I read the book Low Risk Investing by Gordon Pape. He said, among other things, keep a diverse portfolio, with a mix of equities and fixed income assets. When equities are high, cash some in and buy fixed income assets. When equities drop significantly, reverse the flow. Wow, sounds a lot like the advice we get here from Uncle Garth and his suspender snapping coworkers Doug and Ryan. One thing I can tell you, is in the next 3 years some asset class will go on sale. Which one it will be, I have no idea. Will you be ready for some Boxing Day sales when that happens?

#98 Observer on 05.02.22 at 11:01 am

#61 Dog Not Barking on 05.01.22 at 9:30 pm
Ottawa streets look cleaner than when I was there on holidays a few years ago. Maybe Rolling Thunder should send Ottawa a bill for cleaning up the city.

Only damage I saw was from Antifa spray painting a church.

Canadian media was horrified that nothing happened despite their best efforts to foment destruction. Shame on them!

^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^

So much projection and antithesis from the “freedom fighters”. Freedom is irresponsibility. Democracy is dictatorship. Public health restrictions are tyranny.

Canadian media, Ottawa residents and fellow Canadians (the normal ones) were not ” horrified that nothing happened” nor did they attempt to “foment destruction”.

“Freedom fighters” are upset they didn’t rile the OPS into doing something that could be construed as violence, and their loser party fizzled out as OPS was on the ball this time. Sequel #2 was a bust and so will future attempts be.

Maybe Ottawa citizens should send “freedom fighters” the bills they are stuck with.

#99 Ponzius Pilatus on 05.02.22 at 11:11 am

#92 T on 05.02.22 at 9:50 am
#75 Nonplused on 05.02.22 at 12:21 am
Jeez, we are still talking about 3% on the 10 year as if that’s something weird.

It’s time to admit that Putin’s war has had little to do with inflation, at least so far. The gas is still flowing, except to Poland because they figured somehow the war meant they didn’t have to pay for it. Pretty much all the factors were in play before Russia invaded.

————

That’s not how it played out, and you know this.

Good on Poland for sticking to the terms of the agreement and not bowing to Russia’s demands of paying in rubles.
————————-
Poland has a lousy track record of sticking with agreements.
Just ask the EU.

#100 Back to WFW My Friends on 05.02.22 at 11:30 am

Look for lots more of this in the future. All those folks “working” from home may find they’ll need more of a justification than “cause I like it better wahhhh”. One way or another it’s gonna cost to be able to stay in the pj’s all day.

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2022/may/02/staff-london-law-firm-can-work-from-home-full-time-if-they-take-20-per-cent-pay-cut

#101 Ponzius Pilatus on 05.02.22 at 11:32 am

#96 Dharma Bum on 05.02.22 at 10:37 am
#55 Vlad Tor

Good reason to explain your wife why you today a little bit drunk!
———————————————————————————————————-

Thanks Vlad!

But how do I explain the rest of the week? And the week after that?

Huh?
—————————
By that time, she’s already off with the postman.
The one that rings twice.

#102 T - tiny letter tiny brain, no surprise here on 05.02.22 at 11:33 am

DELETED

#103 Oh and another thing on 05.02.22 at 11:34 am

Toodling through Norway, I see the price of gas is averaging around 22 NOK/litre.

That’s over 3.00 CAD/litre. In a similar petro-state. (Well, ok, one that had the good sense to salt their resource wealth away, so maybe not totally similar.)

Meanwhile Canuhdians whining as it goes past 2.00 in Canaduh.

To crib from the Slims ad, you have a long way to go, babies.

#104 Dr V on 05.02.22 at 11:35 am

79 Jane24

“Both brothers want to sell for the fabled mega bucks and then rent for a while. Sigh!”
———————————————

And something is wrong with doing this?

Hint: read Jennifer’s comment @80

#105 Ponzius Pilatus on 05.02.22 at 11:44 am

The world needs another dictator.
Ferdinand Marcos is coming back.
Can Imelda be far behind?
Buy shoe stocks.

#106 Satori on 05.02.22 at 11:54 am

#79 Jane24 on 05.02.22 at 2:23 am
Now my other brother in Brampton has emailed to say they are meeting with a RE agent tonight to get their townhouse listed to catch the top of the market that happened 10 weeks ago! Multiply this by thousands of families and the TO area RE market is going to flood out with listings and much lower prices. Both brothers want to sell for the fabled mega bucks and then rent for a while. Sigh!
—————————————————–
Good luck with that, there are line-ups to rent any place unless you want to pay 5000 plus a month. Try to secured a rental place before selling cause he won’t realize how bad it is until he gets out there.

#107 Slim on 05.02.22 at 12:05 pm

#103 Oh and another thing

I remember paying the equivalent of approx. $2.23 per liter (Canadian) in Germany, 1993.

#108 Evan on 05.02.22 at 12:10 pm

Bond yields reaching 3% today. Good news for bond holders waiting to buy at low prices to hey high yields

#109 Satori on 05.02.22 at 12:24 pm

Moved to West Kelowna from Vancouver and rental market is terrible!

For every ten rental places I contact, I am lucky to get one response. The few places I managed to get a viewing were all over-priced for what you get.
One guy said I was 175 on the list of emails he got for his one rental!!

One was a postage stamp for $1800 a month. Second was a dilapidated, dirty carpets and walls – advertised at $1800 and was told, when I arrived, an extra $400 a month for utilities???
Third one smelt like cigarettes and everything was yellow.

The only ligit place was 1875.00 in one of three new rental buildings. The lady liked me, so she bumped me up the 58 person wait list. Registered me for a place, $100 extra a month for parking.
I rushed home to send her the paper work and googled the building, 37 reviews, 30 noise complaints and thin walls and they all said it had no air conditioning… wth?? so I passed on it. I don’t want to hear my neighbors kids cry and party in the halls.

You do get to a point, and I have been here a month, where you think, gee, ya, maybe I need to buy. Living like a university student, in a basement under a small young family…. that is 80% of what is out there to rent, unless you want to pay 4-5000 a month… realistically, that isn’t in the cards. Then I might as well buy.

One year renting at $2000 a month (if I get one) that is $24000 a year… $54,000 in 2 years…. so if I buy and it goes down, $50,000 or even a $100,000 …. is that so bad???

Sad thing is, you need a place to live. I am lucky I have a place to stay while I look but renting? It is a gong show out there. Most people Air BnB, less of a headache and more money. So when people say they will rent… good luck!

Unless you are willing to rent some place hours out of town, if you are lucky, there will be no line up.

#110 Macronical on 05.02.22 at 1:18 pm

US treasury yields just topped 3.00% as of 1:15PM today!

Celebration time c’mon!

#111 IHCTD9 on 05.02.22 at 1:41 pm

Man, 2.23 in the village for diesel. I hear it was/is 2.40 in town by the 401. $308.00 to fill my ‘91 at 2.40. I feel like I’m living in BC! Groceries definitely going up a lot once these fuel hikes run through the system.

Do you think Trudeau might look at removing the carbon taxes temporarily to help lower income folks out a bit? Like Ford is doing with Provincial fuel taxes?

Should I hold my breath?

#112 enthalpy on 05.02.22 at 1:44 pm

wait, whats wrong with Pierre?

and why is the craziness and drama to be ignored in the markets…..but its ok to play into it for individual candidates for the next election?

I know Pierre. Do you? – Garth

#113 jim on 05.02.22 at 1:49 pm

There’s been inflation for the last 20 years….just not present in the list of items the BoC includes.

#114 Ponzius Pilatus on 05.02.22 at 1:53 pm

#111 IHCTD9 on 05.02.22 at 1:41 pm
Man, 2.23 in the village for diesel. I hear it was/is 2.40 in town by the 401. $308.00 to fill my ‘91 at 2.40. I feel like I’m living in BC! Groceries definitely going up a lot once these fuel hikes run through the system.

Do you think Trudeau might look at removing the carbon taxes temporarily to help lower income folks out a bit? Like Ford is doing with Provincial fuel taxes?

Should I hold my breath
——————
Why don’t you just get rid of the sucker.
Don’t be a victim.
Sometimes there is a reason why people are poor.

#115 toronto1 on 05.02.22 at 2:18 pm

#111 IHCTD9 on 05.02.22 at 1:41 pm

yes seeing diesel in the west end of the city up in the $2.40-$2.45 range and not moving down

diesel is a key output in almost everything we eat or use.
the produce you buy that was imported…. the workers likely got there in a diesel truck or bus, the farm equipment runs on diesel, the ship that brought here is diesel, so is the locomotive that got it to the “last mile (which could actually be 1000) then to the DC in a truck

all diesel, i see that $2.45 a liter price and think man, interests rates are soon going to be north of 5% if this keeps up because real inflation is going to be double digits

#116 Westcdn on 05.03.22 at 8:42 am

The world’s greatest salesman Elon Musk made a Twitter quip which I really like – “All’s well that’s Orwell”. He can deliver big. He can change, fight and learn – my kind of guy. To me, the quip addresses the mentality of our current established masters. Do what I say, not what I do and remember they like to keep secrets.

Well, I am my own master. I can’t get over the number of people who will double down when they have made a lousy decision or say I was just following orders. You call yourself a salient being? Are you listening lefties and experts?

My opinion, I don’t see a bottom in “asset” values. Some stocks are getting temping to buy but I am just identifying for now. The downward trajectory of “wealth” looks to continue as debt becomes more expensive. A few will do well despite the general pain.
Then there is inflation which is worse than higher interest rates and will wreak havoc on debt markets. Debt is someone else’s asset – think of pensions and financial institutions (mainly banks). It will not be happy times for many so lets kill the monster quickly before the cure is worse than the disease. It looks as if I be paying some deadwood freight until mission accomplished.

Inflation is leading me to the poorhouse and I don’t want to go there again. Being a senior and retired does have its drawbacks. Fortunately, the poorhouse taught me to become a jack of all trades but never the best of what I choose to do. However, I am stubborn about not revisiting and can do without and work with what have. I will fight against the placement even though I will be forced to give up some simple pleasures such as travel, restaurants, expensive groceries and booze – groan.

Hey, the good news is I am still slimming down and need fewer drugs for my weight related health issues. My blood pressure and blood sugar are falling with my weight reduction. I can’t figure why I am passing so much water recently. It exceeds my intake – time will tell. I have a theory that my fats cells were holding excess water. I was always a bit of a camel. I will have to get my doctors opinion.

My opinion, the war against inflation also requires slightly higher taxes – a two pronged attack on it. I hope our political leaders can spend wisely and stomach the complaints. The Elon Musks and Jamie Dimons of the world will continue to do what they think is best.

The pursuit of power and influence will never end since it pays so well. You are not less because you have a shovel or axe in your hands but I don’t want narcissists of any social standing in my life. Unfortunately, they are rife within our ruling elites. Many lesser want to be the point of the spear carried by them. Ah, for an easier life and corruption. Just don’t get caught. Have a ready lie and people to throw under the bus.

I am all over the map with this post. Focus David(me) and try to get it right. But it is typical personal behavior.
I sometimes deliver big and make lots of small mistakes (learning adventures). I watch out for fatal errors and try new ideas which often fail. Errors are the foundation I build on.

M68AB

#117 Dogs Not Barking on 05.03.22 at 10:00 am

#98 Observer on 05.02.22 at 11:01 am
#61 Dog Not Barking on 05.01.22 at 9:30 pm
Ottawa streets look cleaner than when I was there on holidays a few years ago. Maybe Rolling Thunder should send Ottawa a bill for cleaning up the city.

Only damage I saw was from Antifa spray painting a church.

Canadian media was horrified that nothing happened despite their best efforts to foment destruction. Shame on them!

^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^

So much projection and antithesis from the “freedom fighters”. Freedom is irresponsibility. Democracy is dictatorship. Public health restrictions are tyranny.

Canadian media, Ottawa residents and fellow Canadians (the normal ones) were not ” horrified that nothing happened” nor did they attempt to “foment destruction”.

“Freedom fighters” are upset they didn’t rile the OPS into doing something that could be construed as violence, and their loser party fizzled out as OPS was on the ball this time. Sequel #2 was a bust and so will future attempts be.

Maybe Ottawa citizens should send “freedom fighters” the bills they are stuck with.
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

Calling veterans and their supporters “losers” is despicable. You walk in freedom every day because of their sacrifices. I’d say that you should show some respect, but you’re free to be as disrespectful as you want.

You even get the freedom to be a bigoted, intolerant redneck and not get arrested…but that’s because our PM agrees with you.