Lilas

.
DOUG  By Guest Blogger Doug Rowat
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In 2000, the fine-art market was caught in an embarrassing predicament.

When Christie’s and Sotheby’s released their spring catalogs that year both auction houses realized they were offering for sale the same Paul Gauguin painting, Vase de fleurs (Lilas):

A Gauguin original?

Source: Google Images

Experts were quickly called in to evaluate which was the genuine article and Christie’s painting turned out to be the copy. A counterfeit ring was eventually traced to an art gallery in New York City, arrests were made, prison sentences handed out and many other fakes confiscated.

I remember the Lilas incident quite clearly as I had just started to get my feet wet in the investment industry and it was a ‘crossover’ story that got plenty of attention in the financial media. I remember thinking at the time that Christie’s must have only looked at the evidence that confirmed what they wanted to hear, which was, naturally, that their Lilas painting was authentic. After all, a bit of further independent due diligence quickly revealed that it was a forgery.

I didn’t realize it at the time, but I was actually ruminating about one of the most common and destructive of investor cognitive biases: confirmation bias. In fact, Swiss author and researcher Rolf Dobelli in his bestseller “The Art of Thinking Clearly” called confirmation bias the “mother” of all biases. Confirmation bias occurs when we only seek out or give value to information that confirms a viewpoint or belief that we already hold. To our detriment, we filter out any information that casts doubt on our pre-established beliefs. If you don’t believe in the enormous power of confirmation bias, consider the inflexible views on vaccinations or mask wearing during the Covid crisis.

From an investment perspective, confirmation bias is dangerous because it can lead to overconfidence and therefore to portfolio overconcentration. If you’ve convinced yourself that the market can only go higher, for instance, why bother having defensive assets? Similarly, if you’ve sold yourself entirely on a particular sector, equity style or market capitalization strategy, why bother having exposure to anything but the securities that dovetail with your outlook?

We often see confirmation bias at work with overly defensive strategies as well. The next time you see an analyst on CNBC discussing their negative outlook, examine their track record.

There’s nothing wrong with having a negative view of the economy or markets, but it’s the UNWAVERING negativity that usually reveals the confirmation bias. If you’re always negative, you’re most certainly filtering out positive information that might cast doubt on your pessimism.

So how to combat confirmation bias? One obvious strategy is to expose yourself to, and be open to, differing viewpoints. From a political perspective, a Biden supporter might watch more Fox News (ahh, Hunter Biden is kinda creepy) or a Trump supporter more CNN (ahh, Matt Gaetz is kinda creepy). The aim is to allow room for differing perspectives. Hollywood actually showed us how to reduce confirmation bias in this scene from World War Z:

However, we’re not fighting zombies, we’re investing. And when it comes to investing, the best way to obviate confirmation bias is to simply maintain a balanced and diversified portfolio.

A balanced portfolio prevents an investor from becoming entrenched in a perpetually positive or negative market outlook. It guards also against excessively favouring particular geographies, sectors or investment styles. It protects against lost upside from, say, being heavily in cash as markets rise and it guards against downside from, say, being entirely in technology stocks even when it seems impossible that this sector could ever fall out of favour.

The technology stock example is particularly relevant this year. Before 2022 began, growth stocks, which are predominantly technology-based, had impressively outperformed value stocks for more than a decade. Last year, a growth-stock proponent suffering from confirmation bias could easily have built a case for how this well-established outperformance would continue and downplay any downside risk, namely a dramatic rise in interest rates (never good for technology stocks).

Alas, at the start of the year, we didn’t foresee multiple 50-basis-point overnight-rate increases coming from the US Federal Reserve (a highly likely outcome now over its next 2-3 meetings); however, we did build a portfolio that included a substantial weighting to more defensive value stocks, effectively limiting any confirmation bias that we may have directed towards growth equities. Here, for instance, are the top-five stocks in one of our growth-focused US-equity ETFs versus the top-five stocks in one of our value-tilted US-equity ETFs:

Key value stocks vs growth stocks (YTD performance)

Source: FactSet; data as of April 27, 2022

The contrasting performances illustrate the effective hedge that diversification provided against a bias towards the sexier, but riskier, growth sector. Naturally, our value ETF has strongly outperformed the growth ETF this year because its holdings overlap very little with the growth ETF.

Balance and diversification always help counteract confirmation bias. And the fewer securities that overlap the better.

After all, you never want to have two Lilas at the same auction.

Doug Rowat, FCSI® is Portfolio Manager with Turner Investments and Senior Investment Advisor, Private Client Group, Raymond James Ltd.

 

73 comments ↓

#1 RowatNation aka Prince Polo on 04.30.22 at 9:44 am

With the body-slam of the Nasdaq currently underway, is there any consideration of adding growth to your nominal portfolio, or would you have to see further deterioration?

#2 Love_The_Cottage on 04.30.22 at 10:06 am

What’s the over/under on number of posts until someone brags about how they are smarter and know which direction a particular stock or area is going thus going completely against the advice and point of today’s post? I’ll go with 12.

#3 crowdedelevatorfartz on 04.30.22 at 10:07 am

Hilarious.
I was bored and watched WWZ last weekend.
“57 channels and nuthins on…” type of thing.

It confirmed that Brad Pitt isn’t really a great actor.

#4 Dharma Bum on 04.30.22 at 10:09 am

I have a serious confirmation bias.

I truly believe that the more money you have, the better off, in general, you are.

I am biased in thinking that a high monthly income beats a low monthly income.

I think dividends are great, and lots and lots of them are better than not getting them.

I’m weird, but I don’t think being pickled in debt to have a ton of stuff you can’t really afford is a good idea. I don’t want to worry about high interest rates.

I believe that paying lower taxes while maximizing one’s income is better than the alternative.

Call me cognitively biased.

I don’t care.
I think I’m right.

#5 The other Doug in London on 04.30.22 at 10:29 am

In the video the idea presented is that if 9 people agree on some idea it’s the duty of the tenth person to cast the shadow of doubt. Makes sense, some good advice to remember. One example of confirmation bias is the events that led up to the sub prime mortgage crisis of 2007-08. A lot of “experts” kept telling each other that everything was just fine until it wasn’t.

#6 Kbean on 04.30.22 at 10:41 am

The largest holding of your Berkshire position: APPL

#7 Søren Angst on 04.30.22 at 10:41 am

Overall YTD Time-Weighted Return to date:

+12.71%

Component ibid:

TFSA -1.12%
Other +18.69%

B&D as I can possibly afford to do with my Threadbare Portfolio + High Yield Dividend ETFs/ETNs.

Latter helped save my Canadian Bacon (Pancetta in Italia, Guanciale better esp. for a Carbonara…yum).

————–

Personally, I think Mr. Market has gotten carried away with the effects of the (1) Ukraine War, (2) Inflation, (3) CB rate hikes & (4) Supply Chain difficulties exaggerating Risk Premium and thus increasing the Expected Return which of course ends up discounting future expected cash flows in today’s $ OR in Lay persons language Mr. Market expects

Lower Earnings.

To me too much of a “sh!t pie in the sky” reaction.

—————-

Staying vested. And will continue to pour dividends into new ETF/ETN purchases ala DRIP.

Mr. Market will get better and come to its senses as time unfolds.

#8 Andrewski on 04.30.22 at 10:46 am

How many self directed investors suffer from:

https://www.psychologytoday.com/us/basics/dunning-kruger-effect

#9 TurnerNation on 04.30.22 at 10:48 am

War on our Food Supply. Unleased globally that cold week — March 2020.
They are not letting up guys, so is there a plan or not?
They will give us starvation with a smile.

https://tnc.news/2022/04/23/trudeau-government-targets-grain-growers-as-worst-emissions-offenders/
“A Trudeau government report is putting farmers next on the carbon emissions chopping block, using UN data that accuses Canadian grain growers of producing crops with the highest “emissions intensity” in the world.
A new “discussion document” released by Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada titled “Reducing emissions arising from the application of fertilizer in Canada’s agriculture sector” singles out wheat, barley and other cereal producers for emission reductions.”

—- Control over Travel – PERMANENT. So close to the 2019 normalcy!
Like the perpetual “War on Drugs” and “War on Terror” this is not meant to be over, or won. Flip what out leaders tell us 18 deg. to make sense.

https://westernstandardonline.com/2022/04/canada-one-of-two-countries-participating-in-wef-travel-digital-id-pilot-program/
A “smart travel approach” includes the use of digital IDs and the development of a “trusted global travellers” framework that will aid governments in their ability to “proactively manage” crises that arise from wars, terrorism, pandemics and natural disasters, according to the WEF.

.Oregon launches digital vaccine card; unclear how many people will use it (oregonlive.com)

.Keean Bexte @TheRealKeean
Just days after winning the federal election, President Emmanuel Macron authorized the creation of a digital ID for France.


— The A.I. — normalizing Control over our breeding?

.New York Post @nypost. ‘Fictosexual’ man married hologram bride, but now struggles to bond with her https://trib.al/eNWlWzc

#10 Søren Angst on 04.30.22 at 10:54 am

On the art forgery I liked Netflix’s

Made You Look

“A con artist isn’t a good speaker, a con artist is a good listener.”

Largest art forgery scandal in US history, nearly USD $80M worth of forged art.

Not only does Avarice and Greed come to no good end, neither do:

Fraud, deception and delusion.

#11 willworkforpickles on 04.30.22 at 10:58 am

“Confirmation bias occurs when we only seek out or give value to information that confirms a viewpoint or belief that we already hold. To our detriment, we filter out any information that casts doubt on our pre-established beliefs.”
……………………………………………………………………………………………………………

Confirmation Bias is something everyone has been guilty of here. From this blogs author to his guest bloggers to each and everyone posting comment … myself included.
Its just human nature.
I for one know it all too well.
Just in the past 2 weeks 2 of my posts were flagged (not published) due to this very bias . On both mine and Garth’s account. Garth wins , its his blog.
Confirmation bias runs deep here nonetheless.

As for your blog submission today Doug…best one ever by you i have to say.

#12 willworkforpickles on 04.30.22 at 11:15 am

On the subject of confirmation bias, We could agree to just disagree when there’s no meeting on neutral ground instead of just cancelling each other out.
Its only a blog and comment site after all, unless it really isn’t.

#13 Baba Novac on 04.30.22 at 11:27 am

Thanks, Doug. I was unfamiliar with the Lilas incident, and kept reading, waiting to discover that both were fake (i.e. the ultimate confirmation bias of not fully checking the more authentic-looking one). Alas, nice story telling and segue to investing…

Question #1: I gather that you would be describing the S&P500 index as growth focused, whereas I was considering it more like the entire universe of large caps on the NYSE. Would you always have this perspective, as based on the tech sector overwhelmingly crowding the top (and percentage) of the S&P500?

Question #2: I know you’ve mentioned here and in the latest weekly call that you’ve tilted towards the value ETF at the beginning of this year. Do you mind providing some insight into what this defensive tilt looks like in terms of approximate allocations to US value vs growth (S&P500)?

Thanks for always coming up with insightful topics like this to give for for thought!

#14 TurnerNation on 04.30.22 at 11:31 am

#9 TurnerNation on 04.30.22 at 10:48 am

^^ Slow day replying to my own comment…

That is the scariest thing you will read all year
https://tnc.news/2022/04/23/trudeau-government-targets-grain-growers-as-worst-emissions-offenders/

It has kicked off the path toward Famine. And the History books indicate all famines are Man-made (government-made). How far will they take it? Seizure of crops? Fining farmers out of business?

— WE KNEW THIS years ago if you’d been paying attention. From 2019:

#49 TurnerNation on 09.10.19 at 8:54 pm
I beleive in my lifetime good foodstuffs will be trashed as armed men look on and people are starving. Maybe the correct karbon permit was not applied for, or the WHO claims dread disease and we comply. Trees have more rights than yourself.

#91 TurnerNation on 12.17.19 at 8:06 am
For years now I’ve stated a time will come whereby armed government men destroy perfectly good food stuffs while desperately hungry people look on. Maybe the WHO says there is a virus, or maybe the correct ‘carbon permit’ was not obtained beforehand

#15 Flop… on 04.30.22 at 11:55 am

#135 Nonplused on 04.30.22 at 12:01 am

Unless you are in STEM, quit collage now and get a trade.

//////////////////////////////////////

No way Plussy!

Such bad advice.

Some of us Tradies actually enjoy collage after a hard days work.

Right now my current project involves me sticking all the things you get wrong up a big metal box in the kitchen.

I’m calling the project “The Fridge”…

M47BC

#16 Shawn on 04.30.22 at 12:07 pm

Electric Vehicles eligible for $5000 rebate

I forgot to give the link

https://tc.canada.ca/en/road-transportation/innovative-technologies/zero-emission-vehicles/list-eligible-vehicles-under-izev-program#wb-auto-4

You can get the rebate for a purchase or a lease.

It’s too late to be an innovator on the adoption curve but you can still be an early adopter. The majority will follow later.

Vlad, I had a couple of late comments for you on yesterday’s blog.

#17 Stealth on 04.30.22 at 12:31 pm

Thank you Doug.

Assuming discussion of value vs growth is specific to the US market, why not just hold total us market etf or s&p 500 etf (either/or they are pretty close) as opposed to splitting value vs growth and tilting.

Isn’t that already built into their total us mkt or s&p500 funds the way they include companies across sectors, size among other factors?

Thanks. I am simply asking for clarification since it is probably me that is missing something here.

#18 Doug Rowat on 04.30.22 at 12:33 pm

#5 The other Doug in London on 04.30.22 at 10:29 am
In the video the idea presented is that if 9 people agree on some idea it’s the duty of the tenth person to cast the shadow of doubt.

—-

And for the other 9 to be receptive to it. Also a key part of the equation.

Alas, for those who have seen the movie, zombies just can’t stand loud music.

—Doug

#19 Bias on 04.30.22 at 12:35 pm

Doug,

Masks? Honestly? This is an example of confirmation bias? More like ignoring tons of science done on the subject. I still wear my cloth mask to protect myself and others.

Vaccines? Well…that is a bit of an untouchable item on here, isn’t it? We could talk latest data but hey…this is not the place for these subjects.

I say let the motorcycles rumble! Nothing says freedom like v-twin burning $1.89 gas…idling, which is what these heavy slow motorcycles do best.

Enjoy the fresh air Ottawa!

#20 Quintilian on 04.30.22 at 12:48 pm

I am biased, and I embrace it.
It’s learned behaviour and it keeps me safely away from dangers.

My values are subjectively acquired, but I don’t subscribe to moral relativism, there is a right and wrong.

Greed is wrong, making a fast buck at the expense of others is wrong.

The stock exchanges were a good thing, until they become a casino, which barely resembles economic activity.
Consider the current divergence between the major boards and the real economy

Private equity is the honest and the closest true calculated risk and venture.

The B & D strategy dilutes both return and risk, but it is still a mug’s game.

#21 Faking It on 04.30.22 at 12:49 pm

Fake painting? Someone would have paid good money with a legit front selling it.

Reminds me of that dude who faked wines (documentary on Netflix). Genius! Foolish people paying crazy sums for wine? Whatever floats your cork.

I bought a high quality ($600) fake HUBLOT of a $60,000 watch. All I’m going to say is the fake watch makers have their act together. Have you see a high quality Daytona fake lately? These are no fly by night efforts.

#22 Love_The_Cottage on 04.30.22 at 1:00 pm

#14 TurnerNation on 04.30.22 at 11:31 am

— WE KNEW THIS years ago if you’d been paying attention. From 2019:
__________
Speaking of confirmation bias: Pointing out a current conspiracy theory that matches the same B.S. you thought 3 years ago is a good example.

Three conspiracy theorists walk into a bar…
Come on, there’s no way that’s not a coincidence.

#23 crowdedelevatorfartz on 04.30.22 at 1:09 pm

In BC we dont sell Forged Art.
No no.
We give our real art to fake dealers to sell.

https://vancouver.citynews.ca/2022/04/29/vancouver-island-art-dealer-arrested/

#24 Recently... on 04.30.22 at 1:32 pm

“Past performance is no guarantee of future results” is generally treated as a warning label: Don’t assume an investment will continue to do well in the future simply because it’s done well in the past.

“Past performance is no guarantee of future results.”

#25 crowdedelevatorfartz on 04.30.22 at 1:33 pm

@#142 fishman
interesting and informative.
Gotta love it when you cant access your own money when bankruptcy looms.
I’m sure stories like that will be repeated again and again in the next few years.

#26 John Turner Nation on 04.30.22 at 1:43 pm

I don’t know whether it is confirmation bias or not … but I can “confirm” unequivocally that any time I start reading a TurnerNation post, I instantly regret it… but maybe I’m just “biased”.

#27 John on 04.30.22 at 2:01 pm

Amazing article. Confirmation bias is the worst and unfortunately sometimes it divides the society.

I would like to hear very much what do you think about the Questrade’s questwealth balanced portfolios asset allocations.
https://www.questrade.com/questwealth-portfolios/etf-portfolios#balanced
Would that be a properly balanced portfolio or is it too much into the S&P allocations?
Thank you.

#28 Flopster on 04.30.22 at 2:02 pm

#92 Flop… on 04.29.22 at 6:34 pm
#73 Zealty fealty on 04.29.22 at 4:54 pm
#10 Flop… on 04.29.22 at 1:48 pm
#3 DON on 04.29.22 at 1:22 pm
Garth, in one post you managed to address two weeks of disinformation by a bunch of sources.

@flop or anyone. how do i check on, how much a house recently sold for?

///:///////////

Go to Zealty.

Sign up and you can see what a house for as recently as yesterday.

Cough up the address if you have trouble and I’ll try and find out.

I’m on break, going to go back to work and practice my pronouns…

M47BC

________________

Garbage web site. Looks like grade 2 designed it. Search is broken. Try searching solds or expired. No worky.

///////////////////

Designed by former blog alumni Adam Major.

You have to sign in to get full use of this website.

If you are lazy, which I had to guess I’d say yes, click on map and zoom into the property you want the information on.

Don’t be just another lazy victim…

M47BC

_____________

You have exquisite timing given today’s topic. We will showcase you as a prime example of confirmation bias information not dunning kreuger all wrapped into one.

It confirms that you think you are the sharpest knife in the drawer and are so quick to namecall others that provide opposing opinions.

Try finding Solds on Vancouver Island with your webpage. And many other neighborhoods. Funny that you thought Don might experience an issue …

#29 ElGatoNeroYVR on 04.30.22 at 3:32 pm

#3 crowdedelevatorfartz on 04.30.22 at 10:07 am
Hilarious.«»
It confirmed that Brad Pitt isn’t really a great actor.
============
True that. He was thought of to be a great actor the same way people thought JT would make a great PM ,based on looks (great hair and socks ).
And to your other point streaming is the new cable.
At least it encourages us it get off the couch and go outside.The Sun (capital letters intended) is upon the Lower Mainland .

#30 cuke and tomato pickere on 04.30.22 at 3:43 pm

There are 4 homes for sale on my short drive to Saanichton it used to take 3 days for a house to sell however it appears those days are over they have been sitting for about a few weeks now.

#31 Doug Rowat on 04.30.22 at 4:32 pm

#17 Stealth on 04.30.22 at 12:31 pm
Thank you Doug.

Assuming discussion of value vs growth is specific to the US market, why not just hold total us market etf or s&p 500 etf (either/or they are pretty close) as opposed to splitting value vs growth and tilting.

—-

We never said that we weren’t active managers. We get paid to tilt.

And when only a handful of stocks made up 30% of the S&P 500 at the start of the year, we felt that it was time to do some tilting in a different direction:

https://www.greaterfool.ca/2022/01/22/the-throne/amp/

—Doug

#32 Arcticfox on 04.30.22 at 4:54 pm

Little perspective ..

Highest inflation(calculated honestly), debt & asset prices in at least 100 years. Global food, energy & supply crisis. FFR unprecedented. Commencing rate hiking cycle into “what no one predicted” -1.4 GDP..popcorn time!

#33 Shawn on 04.30.22 at 4:55 pm

What do you think of your competitor?

#27 John on 04.30.22 at 2:01 pm

Amazing article. Confirmation bias is the worst and unfortunately sometimes it divides the society.

I would like to hear very much what do you think about the Questrade’s questwealth balanced portfolios asset allocations.

https://www.questrade.com/questwealth-portfolios/etf-portfolios#balanced

Would that be a properly balanced portfolio or is it too much into the S&P allocations?

Thank you.

*******************************
Never ask Barber “A” what he thinks of Barber “B”.

Even with your mandatory suck up, do you expect to get an answer let alone an unbiased answer?

#34 Arcticfox on 04.30.22 at 5:04 pm

Oh, and check out the CAPE ratio. Mark my words..passive investing will be over soon which will be good for your profession !

#35 Flop… on 04.30.22 at 5:08 pm

#28 Flopster on 04.30.22 at 2:02 pm
#92 Flop… on 04.29.22 at 6:34 pm
#73 Zealty fealty on 04.29.22 at 4:54 pm
#10 Flop… on 04.29.22 at 1:48 pm
#3 DON on 04.29.22 at 1:22 pm
Garth, in one post you managed to address two weeks of disinformation by a bunch of sources.

@flop or anyone. how do i check on, how much a house recently sold for?

///:///////////

Go to Zealty.

Sign up and you can see what a house for as recently as yesterday.

Cough up the address if you have trouble and I’ll try and find out.

I’m on break, going to go back to work and practice my pronouns…

M47BC

________________

Garbage web site. Looks like grade 2 designed it. Search is broken. Try searching solds or expired. No worky.

///////////////////

Designed by former blog alumni Adam Major.

You have to sign in to get full use of this website.

If you are lazy, which I had to guess I’d say yes, click on map and zoom into the property you want the information on.

Don’t be just another lazy victim…

M47BC

_____________

You have exquisite timing given today’s topic. We will showcase you as a prime example of confirmation bias information not dunning kreuger all wrapped into one.

It confirms that you think you are the sharpest knife in the drawer and are so quick to namecall others that provide opposing opinions.

Try finding Solds on Vancouver Island with your webpage. And many other neighborhoods. Funny that you thought Don might experience an issue …

/////////////////////////////

Well Duh, that’s why I told him to cough up an address if he wanted to.

There are other places to look, I can’t do anything without an address, he didn’t specifically ask for the island, but granted I did suspect that.

People still moan on here daily that they don’t know what’s going on, I gave up a year of my spare time to draw attention to this, potential homeowners at least have more tools available than in 2016/2017.

Keep sooking, I don’t care.

Adam Major helped me out on this site when others sat back and did nothing, I’ll go to war with the guy.

The website is being slowly developed and improved, yes it’s not perfect, but the guy puts his nuts in The Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver’s vice everyday…

M47BC

#36 Flop… on 04.30.22 at 5:13 pm

Potentially selling a painting this afternoon.

Small potatoes, I don’t care whether it’s a knock-off or not.

Elderly In-laws wanted $100 for it, I’m asking 300.

Got some potential buyers coming in an hour or so.

No, it doesn’t have any whales on it…

M47BC

#37 DON on 04.30.22 at 5:13 pm

#28 Flopster on 04.30.22 at 2:02 pm
#92 Flop… on 04.29.22 at 6:34 pm
#73 Zealty fealty on 04.29.22 at 4:54 pm
#10 Flop… on 04.29.22 at 1:48 pm
#3 DON on 04.29.22 at 1:22 pm
Garth, in one post you managed to address two weeks of disinformation by a bunch of sources.

@flop or anyone. how do i check on, how much a house recently sold for?

///:///////////

Go to Zealty.

Sign up and you can see what a house for as recently as yesterday.

Cough up the address if you have trouble and I’ll try and find out.

I’m on break, going to go back to work and practice my pronouns…

M47BC

________________

Garbage web site. Looks like grade 2 designed it. Search is broken. Try searching solds or expired. No worky.

///////////////////

Designed by former blog alumni Adam Major.

You have to sign in to get full use of this website.

If you are lazy, which I had to guess I’d say yes, click on map and zoom into the property you want the information on.

Don’t be just another lazy victim…

M47BC

_____________

You have exquisite timing given today’s topic. We will showcase you as a prime example of confirmation bias information not dunning kreuger all wrapped into one.

It confirms that you think you are the sharpest knife in the drawer and are so quick to namecall others that provide opposing opinions.

Try finding Solds on Vancouver Island with your webpage. And many other neighborhoods. Funny that you thought Don might experience an issue …

*************

Flop…did not think that I would experience an issue, he was merely offering to look up for me. That’s called service. Such a silly segment.

#38 Søren Angst on 04.30.22 at 5:24 pm

No editorializing. Decide for yourselves on merit.

Much of Europe is facing stagflation. France is already there

https://edition.cnn.com/2022/04/29/economy/europe-economy-gdp-inflation/index.html

#39 Ponzius Pilatus on 04.30.22 at 5:46 pm

#29 ElGatoNeroYVR on 04.30.22 at 3:32 pm
#3 crowdedelevatorfartz on 04.30.22 at 10:07 am
Hilarious.«»
It confirmed that Brad Pitt isn’t really a great actor.
============
True that. He was thought of to be a great actor the same way people thought JT would make a great PM ,based on looks (great hair and socks ).
And to your other point streaming is the new cable.
At least it encourages us it get off the couch and go outside.The Sun (capital letters intended) is upon the Lower Mainland .
——————-
Stupid comment.
I’d say most actors and particularily actresses are picked for their looks.
And it also helps in politics, too, but not mandatory.

#40 Arthur Reid on 04.30.22 at 6:00 pm

I’m reading that many wannabe investors are planning to “buy the dip” in rural Ontario real estate. They predict that Canadian companies will NEVER fire their work from home staff because they are special.

It’s only the working class who have to pull themselves up by the bootstraps when the inflation and rental costs erodes their paycheques.

A recently engaged Toronto couple paid 950,000 for a bungalow 100 miles north of Red Lake Ontario. Amazing

#41 Flop… on 04.30.22 at 6:15 pm

#10 Flop… on 04.29.22 at 1:48 pm
#3 DON on 04.29.22 at 1:22 pm

@flop or anyone. how do i check on, how much a house recently sold for?

————————————-

#37 DON on 04.30.22 at 5:13 pm

Flop…did not think that I would experience an issue, he was merely offering to look up for me. That’s called service. Such a silly segment.

///////////////////////////////////////

Thanks DONNIE.

Got some more time now to try and help, the other day I was busy at work.

They don’t even have everything under control in Vancouver information wise, let alone the Island.

Like I stated, the information network is expanding year by year.

If Zealty doesn’t work try REW Insights, one again, used to by junk back in 2016/17 , getting better each year slowly.

I met some slippery eels during my time, Adam Major, David Hutchison and a few others at the very least acknowledge that the barn door swings both ways and real estate does sometimes decline.

David Hutchison (Hutchyman) on his Twitter mentions Fisherly occasionally, through Sutton Real Estate, I think, dunno never used that one because in between Zealty, Insights and BC Assessment you can usually get the job done.

Don’t worry about the other guy, haters gonna hate, moaners gonna moan…

M47BC

https://www.rew.ca/insights

https://www.fisherly.com

#42 Shawn on 04.30.22 at 6:17 pm

CAPE Ratio warning?

#34 Arcticfox on 04.30.22 at 5:04 pm
Oh, and check out the CAPE ratio. Mark my words..passive investing will be over soon which will be good for your profession !

*******************
You could be right this time.

But that warnings has been around precisely as long as the CAPE ratio (Shiller P/E) has been around. By my memory it’s over 12 years at least?

Logically as interest rates the P/E ratio should come down. All past warnings up to about the end of 2021 ended up being premature or did look correct for a while before things turned upwards again.

And it is a mathematical impossibility for the average stock picker to beat the passive index. BUT yes half of stock pickers (or tilters) can beat the index (before fees) and make money from the other half. Just have to be smarter or luckier than average. No problem given that probably 90% of people judge themselves to be smarter than average.

#43 crowdedelevatorfartz on 04.30.22 at 6:18 pm

Hmmmm

Is Putin losing control of his own military?

https://nationalpost.com/news/world/armed-forces-pile-pressure-on-putin-to-unleash-full-might-on-ukraine

Has his own propaganda trapped him into all out war?
Will the army decide what’s next and mass an unstoppable juggernaut of Russian Army Divisions to overwhelm anything Ukraine has put in its way?
Russian pride before the fall.
And if Putin is not longer in control of his army…..
Where will they stop?
Poland? Slovakia? Finland? Germany?

#44 kommykim on 04.30.22 at 6:48 pm

RE:
“From a political perspective, a Biden supporter might watch more Fox News (ahh, Hunter Biden is kinda creepy) or a Trump supporter more CNN (ahh, Matt Gaetz is kinda creepy).”

=======================================

Best not to watch either of those. Editorials and opinions should not be confused with well researched journalism which is sadly lacking these days.

#45 Triplenet on 04.30.22 at 7:27 pm

#36 Flop
Any garage sale painting (not the velvet kind) is worth $20 Cdn
…..unless Felix did it.
dog’s breakfast.

#46 DON on 04.30.22 at 8:35 pm

I follow the scientific method to guard against bias.

Become an observer rather than a player. Question everything.

#47 HUNGRY BEAR on 04.30.22 at 8:54 pm

How is the Russian Ruble stronger now than it was before the invasion?

#48 Flop... on 04.30.22 at 8:54 pm

#45 Triplenet on 04.30.22 at 7:27 pm
#36 Flop
Any garage sale painting (not the velvet kind) is worth $20 Cdn
…..unless Felix did it.
dog’s breakfast.

///////////////////////

They offered $200, I got them up to 225, done deal.

Money will go towards a new patio set.

Pretty sure I mentioned Paul Gauguin and Doug Rowat during the transaction just to touch all the bases…

M47BC

#49 Haters gonna hate on 04.30.22 at 9:02 pm

#37 DON on 04.30.22 at 5:13 pm
#28 Flopster on 04.30.22 at 2:02 pm
#92 Flop… on 04.29.22 at 6:34 pm
#73 Zealty fealty on 04.29.22 at 4:54 pm
#10 Flop… on 04.29.22 at 1:48 pm
#3 DON on 04.29.22 at 1:22 pm
Garth, in one post you managed to address two weeks of disinformation by a bunch of sources.

@flop or anyone. how do i check on, how much a house recently sold for?

///:///////////

Go to Zealty.

Sign up and you can see what a house for as recently as yesterday.

Cough up the address if you have trouble and I’ll try and find out.

I’m on break, going to go back to work and practice my pronouns…

M47BC

________________

Garbage web site. Looks like grade 2 designed it. Search is broken. Try searching solds or expired. No worky.

—————

Yup … based on your reply, you’ve pretty well confirmed my bias that you are a pompous and arrogant twit. Rather than just simply apologizing for providing a practically useless search tool that doesn’t work for a large percentage of the RE areas (not just Vancouver island), you choose to hide behind the safety and anononymity of your keyboard.

Instead you choose to fall back on time honored cliches …. like “haters gonna hate” and resorting to calling people lazy without even knowing anything about them.

Please tell me you are not in charge of people.

P.S. Not a great look for your realtor pal either.

#50 Futurist on 04.30.22 at 9:13 pm

Time travel will become a booming industry, for Millennials and Gen Z to buy Amazon stock in 1997 and a Toronto home in 1953.

#51 Ustabe on 04.30.22 at 10:34 pm

@ Flop:

I’ve traced the IP of both this Flopster imposter and Haters gonna hate…guess what? Same IP.

Its coming from a Motel 6 somewhere in Omaha.

#52 Warren's buffet on 05.01.22 at 12:14 am

@ Flop:

I’ve traced the IP of both this Flopster imposter and Haters gonna hate…guess what? Same IP.

Its coming from a Motel 6 somewhere in Omaha.

_________________

Bingo. Caught me with my pants down… literally. Charlie and I were just about to get it on … it is Saturday night after all … and then you outsmarted us two curmudgeons.

You kids today are too smart for us!

#53 Charlie's Manger on 05.01.22 at 12:23 am

#48 Flop… on 04.30.22 at 8:54 pm
#45 Triplenet on 04.30.22 at 7:27 pm
#36 Flop
Any garage sale painting (not the velvet kind) is worth $20 Cdn
…..unless Felix did it.
dog’s breakfast.

///////////////////////

They offered $200, I got them up to 225, done deal.

Money will go towards a new patio set.

Pretty sure I mentioned Paul Gauguin and Doug Rowat during the transaction just to touch all the bases…

M47BC

___________

Somehow you have deluded yourself into thinking that the steerage section is remotely interested in how you pee away your Saturday afternoons.

A page right out of CEFs playbook… overwhelm them with trivial and banal posts when you’ve been called out! Quantity over quality … works every time!

#54 THE DANDADA on 05.01.22 at 12:31 am

DELETED

#55 Zen Investor on 05.01.22 at 6:31 am

At times like this it’s dividend payers that are the golden nugget of every investors portfolio. Even as stock values go down, the dividend yields go up, so what’s to worry about? Of a 1-1 Beta portfolio I’ve got a measly 3.5% haircut over 50 companies, while the world burns. That’s one way to do it. IMHO of course.

#56 Summertime on 05.01.22 at 7:09 am

https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/canadas-working-age-population-older-134928973.html

Canada’s working-age population is older than ever, StatsCan says

Despite record attempt at immigration. I say attempts as majority of new immigrants do not last more than a few years. Some lucky gest the passport and citizenship. Many do not last that long.

What can attract them here?
– Weather? – firmly no
– Cost of living? – firmly no
With cost of substandard (by any standard) cardboard particles ‘houses’ or glass wall condos with huge maintenance fees up to the moon, f…ng Mississauga and Vaughan priced higher than Castles with 9 bedrooms and 10 hectares of land in the south of France
– Deteriorating basic services – look at the huge backlog and waiting time for emergency and standard surgeries.
– Low pay in the debt tax slave cheap labour camp
– High taxes
– Zero entertainment whatsoever in the big cities.
– Inability to reproduce and have children due to high cost of living. The society is basically that paying your astronomical mortgage is more important than having children

Ina summary: Sad, sad story about a sad, sad place in the middle of nowhere with s..tty weather.

#57 Summertime on 05.01.22 at 7:18 am

#38 Søren Angst on 04.30.22 at 5:24 pm
No editorializing. Decide for yourselves on merit.

Much of Europe is facing stagflation. France is already there

https://edition.cnn.com/2022/04/29/economy/europe-economy-gdp-inflation/index.html

There numbers are more honest, If you calculate the real inflation in North America, it is the same picture.

#58 Joe Lalonde on 05.01.22 at 7:46 am

My thoughts on why our Canadian Banks are about to close I suspect it to be permanent but unsure what they will allow?
Our politicians in their infinite wisdom over the decades has steered our economies to be a globalization system by their corruption of secret deals.
Our politicians have ignored Canadian citizens concerns for decades even when we have our own home grown experts in their fields.
Buying cheaper goods that take vastly more fossil fuels to ship these goods and products to Canada.
Our Banks adjusted to this system of worldwide economic policies and developments with their exposure of investments.
If you choose to ignore the mainstream media and look at data that our governments don’t want you to know or see, it differs substantially from what they are stating and invoking.
The biggest economic driver is cheaper fossil fuels to keep the Canadian Economy going.
With the higher cost of diesel fuel, farmers, truckers, ships, tankers, and air traffic all have hit the brick wall of too high in cost to operate or face bankruptcy.
Another event is the Russian and Chinese Governments are breaking away from our current currency exchange of the US Dollars.

It didn’t make sense to me when our government and politicians closed local industries for products that need to when a vastly greater distances and yet is cheaper than making the products on our own soil.
Imposing hundreds of thousands of regulations, restrictions and laws on everything in our lives in Canada in the name of different causes for your safety.
Our Banks are global and have regulations on what you own in them when they fail and it’s not much on these computer servers that are centralized.
So, your Banks don’t actually have your data on site.

#59 Gr on 05.01.22 at 8:58 am

Some might find this interesting.
It’s not a dog pic but involves dogma, and in line with the 10th man idea sort of.

Mel Acheson: Playing w/Dogmatic Thinking | Thunderbolts YouTube 12min. May 1, 2022
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=i_GtnTt-AZI&t=629s
“Third episode in a seven-arc series on the art of creative thinking.

Over one-hundred years ago, after Einstein’s “rubber space-time” model replaced Newton’s dynamic model, gravity as a force was abandoned in favor of gravity as a warped coordinate system—although some people still think of gravity as a force.

Old theories become a belief system, a dogma, that is absolutely True and Unquestionable. Hindrance to progress can be a result of autocratic dogmatic thinking—so let’s stop pretending in a gravity-and-gas universe.

Science critic Mel Acheson describes how awareness of electrical activity in space has opened our thinking to larger and faster-working explanatory possibilities, such as the EU Model of Cosmology.”

#60 crowdedelevatorfartz on 05.01.22 at 9:30 am

@#53 Charlie don’t Surf
“A page right out of CEFs playbook… overwhelm them with trivial and banal posts when you’ve been called out!
++++

I never use a playbook.
That involves rules.

#61 T Rex and the dinosaur clique on 05.01.22 at 9:41 am

Most decision making seems to be done now by “the mob” with people just blindly following the panic.

Woke up this morning to an email from the motley fool urging me to heed advice before the stock market collapses, likely at the opening of markets on Monday.

Mob mentality, which seems to animate politicians and form the fundamental driving force behind everything we do, has the intelligence of a sea mollusk and the tenacity of a tardigrade.

Swim against the curevt.

It’s the only way.

#62 I don’t know on 05.01.22 at 10:43 am

7 HUNGRY BEAR on 04.30.22 at 8:54 pm

Artificial manipulation and heavy regulation. Unlikely to last as the despicable invasion of a sovereign state continues.

IDK

#63 crowdedelevatorfartz on 05.01.22 at 11:05 am

@#58 Joe Lalonde
“My thoughts on why our Canadian Banks are about to close I suspect it to be permanent but unsure what they will allow?
++++
So .
All the Canadian Banks are going to close…..according to you.

And.

“If you choose to ignore the mainstream media and look at data that our governments don’t want you to know or see”
+++
We just need to get the “facts” from anonymous internet sites…..

I have one question.

What is in the Maple Syrup these days?

#64 Ponzius Pilatus on 05.01.22 at 11:20 am

#51 Ustabe on 04.30.22 at 10:34 pm
@ Flop:

I’ve traced the IP of both this Flopster imposter and Haters gonna hate…guess what? Same IP.

Its coming from a Motel 6 somewhere in Omaha.
————————-
Yeah,
He’s in the parking lot, sleeping in his Tesla.

#65 crowdedelevatorfartz on 05.01.22 at 12:45 pm

Just another day in BC Real Estate

https://vancouversun.com/news/local-news/richmond-lawyer-hong-guo-suspended

The comments are more interesting than the soft touch article in a Medium that delivers money making Real Estate fliers every week.

#66 DON on 05.01.22 at 12:52 pm

#64 Ponzius Pilatus on 05.01.22 at 11:20 am
#51 Ustabe on 04.30.22 at 10:34 pm
@ Flop:

I’ve traced the IP of both this Flopster imposter and Haters gonna hate…guess what? Same IP.

Its coming from a Motel 6 somewhere in Omaha.
————————-
Yeah,
He’s in the parking lot, sleeping in his Tesla.

********
Thanks for the morning chuckle…you delivered as expected.

#67 DON on 05.01.22 at 1:04 pm

Seemingly, lots of nervous folks out there. Or maybe it is just less arrogance. Something is up. No doubt caused by a range of factors coming home to roost. Diesel (life blood of supply chains) is going up, gas expected to rise again by summer (like a bomb as China’s lockdown ends).

#68 Philco on 05.01.22 at 1:18 pm

#34 Groovy69 on 04.27.22 at 5:33 pm
Should I continue to hold ZPR (Preferred shares ETF) as they continue to tank?

Collect the 4.77% yield and relax. – Garth
———————————————
Looking better to buy now eh Garth?
I wasn’t to pumped about getting into the market last fall.
I mentioned a waz back those high flying tech stocks look precariously perched. Yup Wammo many got wacked.
You buy more when it goes on sale Groovy69. I first bought in the crash.
Crashes are wonderful gifts.

People that bought the bubble junk yard homes are getting a lesson now.
I spend months looking for a USED car deal. Usually can sell for a profit after a couple years of driving. I bought a 2019 Leaf Plus with Pilot Pro Full load with 10thou KMs for $25k USD 2 years ago when the covid crash was on… The guy that bought it new paid $45k USD, papers were in the glove box. Their selling for $37k USD now thanks to the covid bubble.
The way people buy homes is laughable.
Ya got to ignore the crazy crowd.
Listen to Garth and crew you will have less regrets.

#69 Gr on 05.01.22 at 1:49 pm

Some might find this interesting.
Sound like he’s another one of the 10th men guys.

He has a number of good points and the video is two years old now so tech is still progressing since then.
Ontario has hydro and nuclear that I’m sure would adjust this analyses out come too.
Even my wife’s newer gas car gets better mileage than my older hybrid due to the tech improvements for example and hers cost less. Maybe improvements like Elon’s/tesla will get us to that better place eventually.
Just something to add or consider.

The Contradictions of Battery Operated Vehicles | Graham Conway | TEDxSanAntonio 14min.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=S1E8SQde5rk

#70 Michael in-north-york on 05.01.22 at 2:34 pm

“How is the Russian Ruble stronger now than it was before the invasion?”
===

Imports into the country are blocked by sanctions from both sides. Hence, fewer uses for foreign currencies.

Appreciation of the Ruble doesn’t help the residents. Prices on many consumer items are up 30-40% since the beginning of war.

#71 Gr on 05.01.22 at 3:44 pm

Here another 10th men point of view some might/should take into consideration.

I’m not saying we shouldn’t try and do better, just make sure you have all the facts, or as many as we presently know or can work through.
Because some things that look new a shinny might not be all that you expect at first glance, or by just taking a quick look.

Why renewables can’t save the planet | Michael Shellenberger | TEDxDanubia 17.5min
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=N-yALPEpV4w

#72 Nicolas on 05.01.22 at 6:44 pm

Great column!

The kicker: Paul Gauguin worked as a very well-paid stockbroker for many years, before losing his job during the 1882 Paris stock market crash and becoming a full-time painter.

#73 Noam Chomsky on 05.02.22 at 10:00 am

DELETED (Anti-vaccine)