Charades

Apparently they just can’t help themselves.

In the early chapters of what could be an epic market correction, realtors want the party to last. The balloon to stay unpricked. The FOMO to continue. But there’s just too much evidence mounting that the gales of higher mortgage costs will rattle real estate board walls, regardless of the duplicity.

A few days ago, for example, the nation’s largest real estate cartel published this news release:

THE AVERAGE PRICE OF CONDOS INCREASED

WHILE NEW CONDO LISTINGS REMAINED FLAT IN GTA

TORONTO, ONTARIO, April 21, 2022 – Condominium apartment sales remained strong historically in Q1 2022. Seller’s market conditions remained in place with the average selling price increasing by more than 20 per cent year-over-year.

Well, that was definitive. No need for FOOP, kids, if you’ve been out shopping for a condo. Prices have held firm. It’s a seller’s market. Increases of 20% a year. Get in there and bid!

“The GTA population will grow at or near record levels over the next few years, supported by a strong regional economy,” says the real estate board econoguy, Jason Mercer. “The condominium apartment segment will be an important source of housing, both for people looking to purchase a home and also those looking to rent. This will continue to support price growth.”

Maybe not.

This blog, certain brave brokerages and a bunch of ethical agents have provided plenty of evidence already the market is rolling over. For example, HouseSigma has published data which undermines the real estate board. Property prices are down across the board from the February peak, it says – a decline of 12% for detached, 22% for towns and 7% for condos. DOM has jumped 100%, and listings are starting to flood in. (By the way, the company’s data for SFHs shows sale prices have crashed $200,000 in just eight weeks.)

Meanwhile broker and social media maven (plus Garth-hater) John Pasalis has chimed in with his data mining for low-rise properties. “Prices peaked in February,” he agrees. “It’s a slowing market.”

Source: John Pasalis, Realosophy, Twitter

Once again, note the trend. Bunnypatch is getting whacked. The city, not so much. Also noteworthy is that year/year prices can be higher and yet on-the-ground values are changing rapidly, erasing those gains. The real estate board, alas, does not tell you about the current situation. Just the meaningless annual change. Also worth being aware of is that, historically, prices don’t take a dump between mid-winter and Spring. They always, always go in the opposite direction – unless we’re in the grasp of a correction. Which we are.

More stuff to ponder includes this report from a realtor in Toronto’s once-hot eastern flank:

If you look, you will see of the 116 Pickering (2 Storey) Det. Listings only 29 of them SOLD. Which says only 25% of listings listed in April have sold. 50% are still on the market roughly and the other 25% are basically TER or SUS… sales are way down for this month.

And then there is this… the worst nightmare of the house-floggers. Negative reports hitting the mainstream media. Since residential real estate is fuelled by hormones, desire, nesting urges and house lust, the meme that this is a scary and dangerous time to borrow ton of mortgage money is itself a market-slayer. What this blog has been telling you for a while has now arrived in print…

By the way, it’s already started. Reports are coming in from lawyers asked to terminate deals that have not yet closed by buyers who feel they overpaid and think they’ll lose only their deposits.

So cute. More on that soon.

About the picture: This is Zoey,” writes Michelle. “She’s sitting beside me as I type this. I just finished my daily reading of your blog. Thanks for your candid comments. PS: The bunny ears pic was taken by her owner – my daughter.”

132 comments ↓

#1 Waystar Royco investor on 04.27.22 at 3:21 pm

So many people think prices will continue to rise….they will be very wrong. The simple removal of the bulk of speculators/investors from the market, who will be scared away becasue of rising rates and stalled value appreciation will be enough to tip the market the other direction…

Or as REALTORS call it, a balanced market, which sounds way better than a crash or correction.

#2 Søren Angst on 04.27.22 at 3:22 pm

Bunnypatch dog.

Polite, yet sad resignation of its lot in life look.

Cute.

#3 Wallflower on 04.27.22 at 3:23 pm

In my smaller gta ring city mls rental listings are maintaining their all time high volume in my year of tracking.
Appears mls sales listings are at an all time volume high in this same period, and creeping higher every day.
Popcorn.

#4 ElGatoNeroYVR on 04.27.22 at 3:24 pm

Yes, the much talked about correction is here as expected.
Now let the betting gams begin :will this be a repeat of 2008/2009 with a 3 year slump or a COVID type done and over with in 3-6 months.
Ofcourse only the hateful (or was that hopeful ? ) non-owners belive this will be a US style correction.
Either way a wipe out of the specuvestors and an end to AirBnB dedicated purchases would be nice.
Long term investors who are cash flow positive and above water on their mortgage will be fine. Only making 50% on your investment over 5 years vs. 70% or 100% does not a net loss make.

#5 Observer on 04.27.22 at 3:35 pm

#148 Love_The_Cottage on 04.27.22 at 2:37 pm
#139 Observer on 04.27.22 at 12:47 pm
#123 crowdedelevatorfartz on 04.27.22 at 9:39 am
+++
Never equate “education” with “intelligence”.
__________
Why do you think I wrote that Freeland is “much more intelligent AND educated than you are”?
__________
The fact that he didn’t pick up on that is hilarious. Better to keep your mouth shut and be thought a fool…

^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^
lol

#6 Paddy on 04.27.22 at 3:38 pm

“50% are still on the market roughly and the other 25% are basically TER or SUS… sales are way down for this month”

I read this blog everyday and can’t figure out for the life of me what the hell TER or SUS are acronyms for? Anyone else stumped as well?…….crickets

Terminated or Suspended. – Garth

#7 Søren Angst on 04.27.22 at 3:39 pm

I mean, you know, prime time of the year for buying a home and the RE market is flatlining at best.

Rates up = Prices down since time immemorial. Gravity. Entropy. Mt. Sinai Clay Tablets. Adaptation.

And yet there are many that say it ain’t so. Diseased.

Then again, they’re probably Flat Earthers that also believe the Earth is about 6,000 years old AND they would have voted for Trump.

——————–

Keep pounding away My Liege with Common Sense (which isn’t all that common) and Evidence.

But alas, you are dealing with Fanatics. They cannot be reasoned with.

Which is good since it makes for an entertaining Blog and Comment section read.

– Thank you, thank you very much.

#8 Inequity on 04.27.22 at 3:41 pm

It will be interesting to see what happens to house prices in Calgary & Edmonton since they have all but stayed the same since the bottom fell out on oil.

#9 Reality Check on 04.27.22 at 3:45 pm

Seller FOMO?

I have a friend here in Victoria who is now scrabbling to get his house ready to sell. He fears he has missed the market peak and may miss out on a couple hundred thousand of sale price. (He’ll be ok, Victoria is still delusionally hot with no apparent market slowdown.)

But I wonder to what extent all those people that did not list their houses over the past two years are getting the message that things are going south. Could this lead to an infux of listing as people rush to try to capture “peak price.”

A drop of 10-20% is a big number on a house valued at $1.5 million. Especially if you’re one of those boomers that took out a $300k HELOC to help junior buy a house.

#10 Prince Polo on 04.27.22 at 3:47 pm

Is it time to obliterate the shyster cartel yet? Naw – let them run further amok and ruin even more people’s lives.

#11 Søren Angst on 04.27.22 at 3:54 pm

This is all your fault SAIL AWAY:

https://i.imgur.com/luIfHoS.png

Mr. I’m going to HOLD TWTR.

Now I am at slightly below breakeven because of you. It’s all YOUR fault. Thoughts create.

Staying the course. Eventually it will climb back up to the purchase price of $54.20 unless Elon put a whole lot of Good Will into that price.

Forced into HOLD by you and your Muchacho Analyst birds of feather.

—————–

Could not resist.

#12 db on 04.27.22 at 3:57 pm

I’m not sure the CB’s have a firm grasp of the economic metrics of crypto and to what extent it is intertwined with the real economy. I suspect the Chinese originating supply chain issues and the Russia/Ukraine import/export are commanding most of the analytical resources this year.
Fairly robust stats exist w.r.t. the outstanding pool of crypto (in this regard they are at least pretty transparent) but valuations are shoddy which largely explains the comical volatility.
Both the Fed and BC have put out calls for research but most of the effort seems geared towards CB’s attempting to replicate Cryptos with their own efforts rather than developing a comprehensive analysis.
The use of HELOCs combined with leverage and using equities as collateral to buy something as volatile as crypto is risky; if this occurrence is wide-spread it could potentially trigger another financial crisis.
I suspect the CB’s natural response would be bailouts, QE and the reduction of the prime-rate but how could this occur without triggering another round of rapidly escalating inflation; as in the very thing they’re trying to dampen at present.
Last year according to PEW, 16% of Americans had exposure to crypto while males 15-29 were at 31%. The study didn’t correlate exposure to net-worth, income or the extent of borrowing or leverage nor how it relates to home ownership levels.
I don’t think this should have an effect on investment strategies for those with balanced portfolios but it could do some major damage to the Robinhood cowboys and anyone with a less than stellar relationship with debt (especially credit cards, HELOC’s and LOC’s) and leverage.

#13 VladTor on 04.27.22 at 4:00 pm

Garth,

I think that those who wanted to buy a house, let’s say six months ago, and then started reading your blog and put off the purchase, should have sent you ( from each !) a bottle of whiskey as payment for saving from an unreasonable debt.

p.s. If it will happens – after receiving 10, please send me one for a good idea!

#14 Chameleon on 04.27.22 at 4:00 pm

Dog with an identity crisis?

Ashamed to be what she was born?

“I always felt like a bunny, and now I will be one!”

Is it an owner trying to circumvent Poop-n-Scoop laws by claiming that law is only for dogs?

What do you think Felix?

#15 Three Letter Acronyms on 04.27.22 at 4:04 pm

DELETED

#16 AM in MN on 04.27.22 at 4:08 pm

The silver lining in all this is that a large chunk of the great unwashed will come to realize that there is no free money, that there are consequences to just printing it.

Thus the wealth effect of feeling morally superior to shutting down the productive parts of the economy and just being a consumer, starts to wane as the phantom wealth of home equity dries up.

I noticed that the usual media suspects tried to gin up some hatred for Poilievre over “climate change” the other day. No one cared, so 2021.

Imagine the horror of living in a nation where it’s productive classes build pipelines and LNG terminals instead of renovating kitchens with new marble!

#17 Froggy on 04.27.22 at 4:15 pm

Prices will go down and then the fed will lower the rates and then the prices will go down duh

#18 Captain Uppa on 04.27.22 at 4:16 pm

“Once again, note the trend. Bunnypatch is getting whacked.”

I am confused as to what qualifies as “bunnypatch”, Garth. You use the term often and I don’t know where the boundary is.

In that table, Aurora is -9% … a -3% difference from Toronto (not much).

So is Aurora bunnypatch or no?

#19 Rishu on 04.27.22 at 4:17 pm

Sounds like the litigation business will be booming! Great time to be a lawyer.

#20 TurnerNation on 04.27.22 at 4:19 pm

Control over our feeding/banning of meat. What did I tell you guys. Welcome to the New Global System.

“Northern Ireland faces loss of 1 million sheep and cattle to meet climate targets”
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2022/apr/22/northern-ireland-faces-loss-of-1-million-sheep-and-cattle-to-meet-climate-targets

— Watch the food supply. The ‘news’ is priming us hard lately.

.CBC News @CBCNews A new strain of avian flu that’s been plaguing eastern and central Canada has shown up in B.C., and a chicken farmer says it may have wiped out dozens in her flock. cbc.ca/1.6430820

.China reports first human case of H3N8 bird flu (straitstimes.com)

.On April 25, the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s Food Safety and Inspection Service (FSIS) announced that Lakeside Refrigerated Services has recalled 120,872 pounds of ground beef products, due to possible contamination of E. coli O103. (news.yahoo.com)


Ukraine. When Google auto-populates my search results the second choice is “Russia and Ukraine are Europe’s breadbasket”. Food supply.
All I know is look for The Dog That Didn’t Bark. There are no crys of “We know he has WMD!” or “He’s killing his own people!”.
Nope, None of the usual suspects are lifting a FINGER to forcibly save Ukraine.

#21 Squire on 04.27.22 at 4:26 pm

…Reports are coming in from lawyers asked to terminate deals that have not yet closed by buyers who feel they overpaid and think they’ll lose only their deposits.

So cute. More on that soon.
——————————–
It is cute, like as if they bought something at the store and can return it for a refund. Sheesh.
I too see many terminated and suspended listings. It seems to have started around mid March.
It goes up forever… it can never happen here… CB’s would never do that to rates….lol
Just wait until June 1st 0.75% rate hike Yikes !

#22 Dogman01 on 04.27.22 at 4:30 pm

Jeopardy!’ champ Mattea Roach says buying a home in Canada in her 20s only realistic because of game show windfall

https://www.thestar.com/news/canada/2022/04/26/jeopardy-champ-mattea-roach-says-buying-a-home-in-canada-in-her-20s-only-realistic-because-of-game-show-windfall.html

Such a said state for the young in Canada especially anyone in “the middle class and all those working hard to join it ™” – @JustinTrudeau

I guess you will just have to win the lottery or “pick your parents well”

#23 NOSTRADAMUS on 04.27.22 at 4:33 pm

WOULDA!- COULDA!- SHOULDA!
Today, if you’re looking at your stock or real estate portfolio, you’re looking at a relic of a bygone-era. I suggest you print it out and hang it on the walls under the caption, WOULDA, SHOULDA, COULDA, GOT OUT! New point, sadly, before long you are going to see a lot of former #1 real estate rock star realtors spending huge, I mean huge dollars trying to claw their way back up the sales ladder. Sadly, a lot of former #1 agents are going to regret burning through all that cash. It’s a typical death spiral conundrum, burning precious capital to fund a business that is shrinking daily. Sadly, I see numerous other opportunities for the agents to double down and lose it all. Hold on, someone at the door.

#24 paul on 04.27.22 at 4:39 pm

Received a call from a selling agent to see it my seller would terminate a sale if the buyer forfeited the 100k deposit? Not happening it will be ugly!

#25 Stone on 04.27.22 at 4:43 pm

Source: John Pasalis, Realosophy, Twitter

———

Could you please make the following correction?

Source: John Pasalis, Realosophy, Twitter (He really, really, really, really, did I mention really hates me).

Are you sure the 2 of you can’t make up? Just buy a house (at peak) through him. I’m sure it’ll make his day.

#26 Blair on 04.27.22 at 4:59 pm

Could you do a blog on the effects of unstable markets/a possible recession on retirees? The effect on investment income, that may have to be drawn on now or fairly soon, is a worry.

#27 Lumpia on 04.27.22 at 5:01 pm

Good. Pain is needed to level out the inflated sense of geniuses for buying houses with no risk. Canadians are literally pumping money into dirt which is not a productive asset, instead of generating real GDP. Canada has a real chance of not surviving the next 20 years. We are so damn dedicated to denying reality, we might crash into chaos at speed.

#28 The Regulator on 04.27.22 at 5:06 pm

The “cartel” will continue its lies until the truth exposes its morally bankrupt position. Of course there will be no heads rolling in the aftermath. They make used car salespeoplekind appear angelic by comparison. Flogging them would be a good starting point.

#29 Sail Away on 04.27.22 at 5:15 pm

#11 Søren Angst on 04.27.22 at 3:54 pm
This is all your fault SAIL AWAY:

https://i.imgur.com/luIfHoS.png

Mr. I’m going to HOLD TWTR.

Now I am at slightly below breakeven because of you. It’s all YOUR fault. Thoughts create.

——–

Yes, my manifestations often become reality, ’tis true. Analysts always move with the current.

Hold strong. There is still +11.4% benefit by October and a $1B penalty for contract noncompletion.

#30 tkid on 04.27.22 at 5:15 pm

Hi Garth,

please, I second #26 Blair’s request. The state of the market and my portfolio has me super agitated.

Then stop looking. – Garth

#31 The Regulator on 04.27.22 at 5:17 pm

Will the AudiCartel take any responsibility for their criminal behavior when the NOTrealestate gas bag goes down like the Hindenburg? For shame, for shame! Hang your coiffed, tinted, and spiked heads in shame for what you’ve done.

#32 TurnerNation on 04.27.22 at 5:27 pm

In Kanada they pretend to pay is, we pretend to work.
At Drugs stores, Grocery stores, some Dollarama there is the Self Checkout.
So just stay home, turn on, tune in, and drop out.
Bring on the UBI and Free Dental/Pharma/Medical?

https://www.blogto.com/eat_drink/2022/04/freshii-virtual-cashier-nicaragua/
“Many Freshii customers have already encountered “Percy” — a video-calling device attached to cash registers at some locations in Ontario. Behind the screens are workers thousands of kilometres away in Nicaragua, making $3.75 per hour.”

— Science in Kanada. Umm yeah you don’t say….I have not noticed anything unusual for years. Except, for a chronically underfunded health care system.

.As mask mandates end, Canada’s Atlantic provinces see a virus resurgence. (nytimes.com)
“It’s really hard for people, without data being reported more frequently, to remember that we’re in a pandemic,” said Dr. Barrett, adding that the mask provided a useful visual cue.”

—- More power to the unelected. This is not meant to be ending any time soon.

“Ottawa’s board of health is asking the province to restore some of the powers of medical officers of health”
https://ottawasun.com/news/local-news/board-of-health-asks-province-to-restore-medical-officers-ability-to-issue-letters-of-instruction/wcm/67935814-832e-44fd-9619-83db0d0c29c2

#33 KingKouros69 on 04.27.22 at 5:30 pm

Random Bitcoin question.

I understand Bitcoin as an investment that goes up in value. Most people in North America hodl it etc.

This is what I don’t understand. Bitcoin enthusiasts cheer on other nations adopting it as legal tender etc such as El Salvador etc. Their Chivo network makes the Bitcoin be used as a currency though.

I don’t get it. Rich people use it to hodl but actively encourage poor people to spend it as a currency?

Can a knowledgeable blog dog explain this to me. Thanks

#34 Groovy69 on 04.27.22 at 5:33 pm

Should I continue to hold ZPR (Preferred shares ETF) as they continue to tank?

Collect the 4.77% yield and relax. – Garth

#35 HUNGRY BEAR on 04.27.22 at 5:36 pm

ONLY temporary.

Demand for housing is not going away. Aren’t we about to see an influx if immigration over the next decade?

Every market goes through a correction before it turns around and rips hire.

Unless a loaf of bread is going back to .99cents and the price of building materials pulls back then prepare for the bounce back in home sales and prices.

Oh by the way have you checked out RENTAL RATES lately?

#36 Jose on 04.27.22 at 5:42 pm

A steep price cut in Stouffville. This isn’t in the middle of nowhere. How are prices in Kawartha Lakes, Bruce County and the middle of Sudbury?

#37 Sam on 04.27.22 at 5:43 pm

IDC what the data or Toronto star says. Towns in Vaughan burbs still selling for $1.5MM.
https://www.zolo.ca/vaughan-real-estate/sold

#38 Tom from Mississauga on 04.27.22 at 5:47 pm

Was certain you were going to do a post on the 2021 census. Sure it’s coming later this week.

Why? I wrote a book about our rotten demographics in 1995. Nothing has changed. – Garth

#39 Don Guillermo on 04.27.22 at 5:47 pm

#10 Prince Polo on 04.27.22 at 3:47 pm
Is it time to obliterate the shyster cartel yet? Naw – let them run further amok and ruin even more people’s lives.
**************
Dairy cartel? Oh yah, let’s obliterate it.

#40 Andrei on 04.27.22 at 5:52 pm

Garth, houses are driven by both financing costs and discounting and by economic growth. Rates are rising because the economy is growing, so these two forces battle it out over the real estate prices. If people in the big smoke get jobs, they will be buying houses, although paying more interest. Recession in the 6 will drag house prices down. Why not talk about the growth too?

#41 Stone on 04.27.22 at 5:52 pm

#26 Blair on 04.27.22 at 4:59 pm
Could you do a blog on the effects of unstable markets/a possible recession on retirees? The effect on investment income, that may have to be drawn on now or fairly soon, is a worry.

———

As a recent early retiree, I can say there are 2 scenarios you will face.

The first is where you took a significant portion of your working after tax income every year and diligently shovelled it into your investment vehicles such as TFSA, RRSP, non-registered accounts, etc. investing it into a B&D portfolio or equivalent and allowed it all to compound. Also, understanding how much you want to spend in retirement – assume it will be as much as before you retire and potentially more. It has been more for me and I had assumed that it would be prior retirement.

The second is where where you don’t.

In the first scenario above, there is no concern withdrawing income from your B&D. In the second scenario, forget about retiring. Continue to work in that case until you are in the first scenario.

If you are retiring soon and you are worried about your finances and covering your annual expenses, you are likely in scenario 2.

There are no shortcuts.

#42 Mark on 04.27.22 at 6:13 pm

drives me completely bonkers how most agents don’t have basic language skills. “Prices peaked in February,” he agrees. “It’s a slowing market.”
uhhh….what? ‘slowing’ means it is still going up, but not as fast. how can it still be going up but have peaked in February? why can’t they just say what’s actually happening. saying the truth must be an exercise left to the reader.

#43 Shawn on 04.27.22 at 6:13 pm

Shop for Bargains in houses and bread

#34 HUNGRY BEAR on 04.27.22 at 5:36 pm
ONLY temporary.

Demand for housing is not going away. Aren’t we about to see an influx if immigration over the next decade?

Every market goes through a correction before it turns around and rips hire.

Unless a loaf of bread is going back to .99cents and the price of building materials pulls back then prepare for the bounce back in home sales and prices.

Oh by the way have you checked out RENTAL RATES lately?

*****************************
I actually saw loaves of bread at Superstore in Edmonton for 97 cents today. Limit four.

Shop around people. Increasingly you will pay double if you don’t have time to look at flyers and sign up for savings alerts on your phone. It’s customer differentiation. Stores are happy to sell to bargain hunters for half price if that’s what it takes and even happier to sell to those willing to pay full price.

I saw some empty shelves today too. Some popular brands of cereal were sold out. Including Kellogg’s “All Bran”. This is a most irregular development. CEF might approve of this development.

#44 Victor V on 04.27.22 at 6:18 pm

“Yet another homeowner client who has been making ends meet by using credit for months. Paycheque to paycheque. Now we will balance their new budget by going from credit card min payments of $1,275/mo to CP payments of $550.”

https://twitter.com/scottterriohma/status/1519305637536092160

#45 under the radar on 04.27.22 at 6:19 pm

18- you must live in Aurora. I think we can infer that it is far enough from 416 that a daily commute would be hell on wheels or altogether not in the cards because it’s in the middle of nowhere and the buyers thought WFH was the new deal.

#46 Penny Henny on 04.27.22 at 6:22 pm

#34 Groovy69 on 04.27.22 at 5:33 pm
Should I continue to hold ZPR (Preferred shares ETF) as they continue to tank?

Collect the 4.77% yield and relax. – Garth

////////////////

The yield keeps going uppa, Uppa, UPPA

#47 The Regulator on 04.27.22 at 6:36 pm

I’m curious as to why, with the unprecedented sanctions imposed on Russia, the ruble is now trading at 73.87 to the American dollar? Are sanctions really working, or is the petro/gold backed ruble more resilient than western governments expected? Poland and Bulgaria were just cut off from Russian gas, this is getting serious.

#48 cuke and tomato picker on 04.27.22 at 6:39 pm

Before moving to south Vancouver Island Sidney B.C.
area we owned 3 cherry orchards in the south Okanagan one 2 bdr rental in Vancouver and recreational property at Lake Chelan in Washington State we sold each of these properties at a very good profit. We have lived in the South Vancouver Island Sidney area for 15 and a half years and would be very surprised if our home here would go down in value.

#49 Quintilian on 04.27.22 at 6:39 pm

#40 Andrei on 04.27.22 at 5:52 pm

“Rates are rising because the economy is growing, so these two forces battle it out over the real estate prices. If people in the big smoke get jobs, they will be buying houses, although paying more interest.”

Anybody with marketable skills already has a job. One could say that full employment will result in higher wages, but that will not offset the higher cost of financing.

Currently prices are predicated on negative interest rates, and a booming economy.

Those two cannot coexist unless manipulated.

Interestingly, interest rates and animal spirits pumped the bubble; interest rates and animal spirits will prick the bubble.

Tick Tock, Tick Tock

#50 Ballingsford on 04.27.22 at 6:49 pm

Signed for our townhouse in July 2020, took possession in Oct 2021. A lot more lot releases after we signed and they kept going up in avg $40,000 increments.
Right after each release weekend, all the townhome models would say ‘sold out’.
A week and a half ago, another lot release, and none of the homes on the site says ‘sold out’ as of today.
The prices the homes were going for were 60% higher than what we signed for in 2020. I guess buyers have reached their limit or the banks are tightening down.
Anyway, if that current price holds and sells, then my home appreciated 60% in less than 2 years. So, a 20% depreciation isn’t too bad for me yet. It would have to be 60% depreciation for me to break even.
Also got lucky with my mortgage rate. I’m 4 months in a 5 yr fixed at 2.25%.

#51 uncle dave on 04.27.22 at 7:01 pm

Why are people getting so panicky about their portfolios? so they’re down a bit but its hardly March 2020 and they rebounded from that, I don’t get it.

#52 Lee on 04.27.22 at 7:08 pm

According to a story in the Toronto Star, everyone in Canada is going to be 85 Years old soon. Then condos will boom.

#53 kommykim on 04.27.22 at 7:13 pm

RE:
#46 Penny Henny on 04.27.22 at 6:22 pm
#34 Groovy69 on 04.27.22 at 5:33 pm
Should I continue to hold ZPR (Preferred shares ETF) as they continue to tank?

Collect the 4.77% yield and relax. – Garth

////////////////

The yield keeps going uppa, Uppa, UPPA

=======================================

Sort of…. The yield increase is much more dramatic for new buyers of ZPR. Existing holders of ZPR will have to wait until the individual prefs that ZPR holds reset to new higher rates or get redeemed by the issuer.

#54 Smithy on 04.27.22 at 7:39 pm

Here’s my perspective from little Pickering where houses went nutso…

3rd week of Feb was the “peak”. Prior to Christmas $1.45 and people went OMG!!! Early Jan $1.5M and people went WTGoodness? 3rd week Feb in my neighbourhood $1.6M x 3 sells and pees went OMG!!!

Now $1.6M asks just sit… There’s a $2.2M that will sit longer, way way way longer. I have a friend agent, open houses that saw 25 or 30 on a Saturday in Feb just saw TWO last Saturday. Its over.

I have another banker friend in U.S. 3 and 5 year rates doubled over past month.

East 905 is pooched. Too many Porches and BMWs people cant afford. All on equity LOC, and don’t get me started on 905 cottagers.

#55 Shawn on 04.27.22 at 7:50 pm

Math challenged but lucky in real estate

#50 Ballingsford on 04.27.22 at 6:49 pm

Anyway, if that current price holds and sells, then my home appreciated 60% in less than 2 years. So, a 20% depreciation isn’t too bad for me yet. It would have to be 60% depreciation for me to break even.

***********************
Try that on a calculator. Surprisingly, a 37.5% decrease wipes out your 60% gain. (6/1.6)

#56 Shawn on 04.27.22 at 7:51 pm

Typo challenfged

I meaned to say 0.6/1.6

#57 Shawn on 04.27.22 at 7:53 pm

CPD and ZPR

Selling simply becasue price is down is a bad idea.

At least give thought to why the price is down.

#58 Victor V on 04.27.22 at 8:00 pm

“I Have Bought a Rental Property and I Need to Refinance my House for Down Payment!!

We get this call 10 times a day

We know this is about to drastically slow down but DAMN, all the houses sold in the last 3 weeks must have only been to investors”

https://twitter.com/ronmortgageguy/status/1519449850592563200

#59 Al on 04.27.22 at 8:05 pm

Deutsche Bank Sees 5%-6% Fed Target Rate and Deep U.S. Recession
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-04-26/deutsche-bank-sees-5-6-fed-target-rate-and-deep-u-s-recession

#60 Yukon Elvis on 04.27.22 at 8:10 pm

#47 The Regulator on 04.27.22 at 6:36 pm
I’m curious as to why, with the unprecedented sanctions imposed on Russia, the ruble is now trading at 73.87 to the American dollar? Are sanctions really working, or is the petro/gold backed ruble more resilient than western governments expected? Poland and Bulgaria were just cut off from Russian gas, this is getting serious.
+++++++++++++
The ruble trades at .014 USD. 73.88 rubbles buys 1 USD.

#61 Quintilian on 04.27.22 at 8:18 pm

There is no way they can fight inflation with the puny rate increases as of now.

See inflation at the embryo stage.

https://www.bls.gov/ppi/latest-numbers.htm

#62 Lower the Boom....er not on 04.27.22 at 8:30 pm

#26 & #30

Our Background info:
mid boomer couple
retirement decision to make Spring 2022
regular GT readers

Our Decision:
delay retirement
work 3 more years
retain benefits
add to B & D
inflation resistance
cash flow

then retire
thank GT

#63 Shawn on 04.27.22 at 8:32 pm

Work From Home Becomes Work from Nicaragua

Didn’t we predict this? (except it was India)

Anyone who truly believes in free trade should have no problem with Freshii using workers in Nicaragua.

I applaud the creativeness.
This is what companies are supposed to do, save costs.

We have a labor shortage. Why should I not be glad to support a Nicaraguan family who probably needs the money more than the Canadians they might have hired.

But the mostly economically illiterate mob will obliterate Freshii over this.

#64 crowdedelevatorfartz on 04.27.22 at 8:49 pm

@#43 Shawn
“I saw some empty shelves today too. Some popular brands of cereal were sold out. Including Kellogg’s “All Bran”. This is a most irregular development. CEF might approve of this development.”

+++

I noticed the grocery store shelves were empty of most Bran cereals over a month ago.
The sugary sweet tooth rotting cereals like “Fruit Loops” and “Honeycomb” were overloading the shelves.
I’m not sure if loading the angry masses up on expensive sugar and phantom calories is a good idea
Never a good sign when stores are bereft of Bran.
Next stop…the shredded wheat aisle…..

#65 DON on 04.27.22 at 8:53 pm

Are we in the denial stage right now?

Judging by the comments today.

Better hope our neighbours can handle their payments.

#66 fishman on 04.27.22 at 9:00 pm

This is a good time to ditch the attitude & go house hunting if your serious about owning R/E. Start going to open houses with a plan. Don’t rely on a “inspector”. Learn the game yourself. Start in the basement, look for sloped slabs, cracks non drainage slopes, unevenness in the basement windows. Means she was built on loon shit & poor footings. Check electrical box. Enough amperage?old style aluminum wire? New rules,big money for electrical. Doors close nicely? Windows level? Drainage time, water pressure,water stains? There’s so much but you’ll develop an eye. I checked out at least 200 places while doing the off fishing season reno gig building up R/E wealth. Don’t be shy. Treat the agents with respect, the word gets around. After 50 visits, say 2/week you’ll start to get an eye. Spot the tricks the vendor uses to hide major faults from the innocent victim. Cross reference with U Tube. Find a bar where tradesmen drink beer after work. Think hard before you ask the “right” questions. Tradesmen are a wary lot so don’t be unctious; exceptions made for good looking women. In a couple years when things settle out you’ll be ready to make a move on something with good bones. Your the one who will be able to power through something that others might miss, or worse, falsely denigrate.

#67 Overheardyou on 04.27.22 at 9:01 pm

Housesigma is the mls of Millennials, their algorithms will bring this peak down even faster lol

#68 Flop… on 04.27.22 at 9:10 pm

I’ve stated on here before I only go downtown when it’s is totally necessary.

My next scheduled trip downtown is to go to the Australian Consulate for passport renewal sometime in 2026.

It’s dirty, dying and decrepit.

My hood is safe, bustling and one days power washing away from being squeaky clean.

Don’t you mess it up developers.

R.I.P Downtown Vancouver…

M47BC

————————————————-

“Vancouver City Council proposes Empty Stores Tax to reduce vacant storefronts

The creation of an Empty Stores Tax was suggested by Vancouver Mayor Kennedy Stewart during Tuesday night’s meeting on the distribution of the property tax.

“Now that we’ve been so effective with the Empty Homes Tax and forcing residential properties into the rental market, investors are buying commercial properties, waiting for them to deteriorate, and that’s to our detriment with up to 20% vacancies in some neighbourhoods,” said Stewart.

“This could be a tool that we could explore, it has been effective in one case, and I hope it’s effective in another.”

https://dailyhive.com/vancouver/vancouver-empty-stores-tax-commercial-businesses

#69 OK, Doomer on 04.27.22 at 9:28 pm

@#43 Shawn
“I saw some empty shelves today too. Some popular brands of cereal were sold out. Including Kellogg’s “All Bran”. This is a most irregular development.
++++++++++++++++++++++++

And that is when I snorted my Metamucil out through my nose :) :) :)

#70 Ponzius Pilatus on 04.27.22 at 9:28 pm

#137 IHCTD9 on 04.27.22 at 12:34 pm
#49 Ponzius Pilatus on 04.26.22 at 4:54 pm
IHTCD0
you’re getting completely unhinged.
Too bad, because I think you’re a fairly decent guy.
You don’t know Freeland.
So you’re in no position to judge her.
I’ve been in accounting/finance for almost 40 years.
And I’ve learned that the top role in Finance is best suited for a Philosopher/Psychologist and a mentor and motivator.
In that position you have enough underlings to crunch the numbers, so you can focus on the big picture.
The last person you want to be in that role is a bookkeeper who can’t see past the numbers.
____
Well she definitely ain’t seeing the numbers from the looks of it.
If I hired a philosopher to run a horizontal boring mill – how’d you think that would turn out?
———————
When I talk about a philosopher, I mean a person who’s an abstract (outside the box) thinker, a problem solver who asks the right questions, and does not let emotions cloud his judgement.
He’s probably the one who would invent the boring mill, not run it.
Think Leonardo da Vinci.
Einstein was part Philosopher and Scientist.
BTW, one of my buddies studied Philosophy, and worked as a construction worker during the summer.
He was constantly teased, but he won their respect by suggesting better ways to get the job done. His motto was : Work smart not hard”.
And he spoke almost fluent Latin, the babes dug him.
CEF would have loved him.

#71 crowdedelevatorfartz on 04.27.22 at 9:30 pm

@#68 Floppie

““Now that we’ve been so effective with the Empty Homes Tax and forcing residential properties into the rental market, investors are buying commercial properties, waiting for them to deteriorate, and that’s to our detriment with up to 20% vacancies in some neighbourhoods,” said Stewart.”

+++

Yes.
Former political scientist, former professor, published author and a dismal failure at actually “practicing what he preaches”
Mayor Kennedy Stewart has decided empty stores in the dreadful, crime ridden, graffiti blighted, drug infested …downtown east side……. are unscrupulous owners keeping the stores vacant.
“They should be taxed”

The disbelief among business owners barely holding on to what they have……will have to wait until Nov’s municipal election.

Now to Surrey where the Mayor has used city money to pay for lawyers in his upcoming criminal mischief trial.
He filed charges against protesters that allegedly assaulted him….then the police reviewed video of the incident and charged HIM with mischief…..
But not before having clowncil pass a bylaw making any criticism of the mayor for the 6 months leading up to the election….illegal.
No protests about the Mayors criminal trial. No posting signs on lawns about the trial….nothing.
Freedom of speech?
Not in Surrey.
Home owners have taken to posting “Not a sign” signs on their lawns.

This is BC’s Lower Brain land and its what keeps us busy.

#72 Ponzius Pilatus on 04.27.22 at 9:39 pm

Had lunch with a CFO buddy of a medium sized company today.
They are about 45 workers short.
Started about one month ago to hire for 16 dollars.
No takers.
Now they offer up to 19 dollars.
And job seekers are starting to bite.
Minimum wage of 15 dollars is so yesterday.
Mr. Market calls the shot.

#73 45north on 04.27.22 at 9:45 pm

Don Are we in the denial stage right now?
Judging by the comments today.
Better hope our neighbours can handle their payments.

that’s what I think

#74 kc on 04.27.22 at 9:49 pm

The market is toasted … the town/city (east of vancouver 40Kms) i live in had 180 open houses over the weekend … I live next door to a realtor, and on the weekend (sunday) they held an open house at my other half’s deceased dads’ house. She said that it was the first time in many years she was skunked at an open house… not a person entered….

The place is on 2.5 acres and listed for 2.49 Mil. she said it is turning fast. (the market that is) … on a side note… for sale signs are popping up EVERYWHERE….

#75 crowdedelevatorfartz on 04.27.22 at 9:54 pm

@#70 Ponzie’s Philosopher Pals
“BTW, one of my buddies studied Philosophy, and worked as a construction worker during the summer.
He was constantly teased, but he won their respect by suggesting better ways to get the job done. His motto was : Work smart not hard”.
And he spoke almost fluent Latin, the babes dug him.”

++++
Ah yes, the Latin quoting savant “philosopher” janitor/labourer/ditch digger.

I saw that movie too.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LMD2vUErcYU

#76 Captain Uppa on 04.27.22 at 10:00 pm

45 – Under the Radar : “18- you must live in Aurora. I think we can infer that it is far enough from 416 that a daily commute would be hell on wheels or altogether not in the cards because it’s in the middle of nowhere and the buyers thought WFH was the new deal.”

I do.

Middle of nowhere? Uh, there are Go Train stations directly to Union all day, everyday and two major highways. I used to live in West End 416 and the commute downtown was the same as it is from Aurora.

Further, prices in homes are not cheap here. Not even compared to Toronto. So not sure what deal a WFH’er was getting. Especially when it’s only down -3% more than 416.

Which is why I am trying to understand where the “bunny patch” actually is these days.

#77 Ponzius Pilatus on 04.27.22 at 10:00 pm

71 crowdedelevatorfartz on 04.27.22 at 9:30 pm
@#68 Floppie

““Now that we’ve been so effective with the Empty Homes Tax and forcing residential properties into the rental market, investors are buying commercial properties, waiting for them to deteriorate, and that’s to our detriment with up to 20% vacancies in some neighbourhoods,” said Stewart.”

+++

Yes.
Former political scientist, former professor, published author and a dismal failure at actually “practicing what he preaches”
Mayor Kennedy Stewart has decided empty stores in the dreadful, crime ridden, graffiti blighted, drug infested …downtown east side……. are unscrupulous owners keeping the stores vacant.
“They should be taxed”
————————
You keep on spewing your vitriol on the Downtown Eastside, which is about 1% of Vancouver proper.
Ever been to the other beautiful communities that make Vancouver the second most livable City on Earth?
After Vienna, of course.

#78 Flop… on 04.27.22 at 10:01 pm

Let’s come up with a plan my 8 billion people peeps.

We’re gonna keep sending lead for Ukraine to shove between Putin’s cheeks?

O.k fair enough.

Where we gonna go for crop replacement?

Maybe we need to look at Africa.

“From Nigeria to the fertile land across the East African Rift Valley, the continent is home to 60% of the world’s uncultivated arable land.”

Maybe we need to go to the dollar store and send these long suffering souls some tools, so they in-turn can feed us.

Here’s the other stat that jumped out at me.

“Notably, Africa’s yam production is 97% of the global total. West Africa is known as the “yam belt,” covering Nigeria, Ghana, Benin, and Côte d’Ivoire. With over 60 million people across the yam belt directly or indirectly involved in its production, yam cultivation is an important component of the region’s economic vitality.

Man, if I had to choose between eating cabbage or yams every night, I’ll take the yams in a heartbeat.

I’ve got a hernia belt, probably not as tasty as the yam belt…

M47BC

https://www.visualcapitalist.com/cp/what-are-the-most-produced-cash-crops-in-africa/

#79 Doug t on 04.27.22 at 10:02 pm

#48 cuke and tomato

OK once again – WE get it already “ the orchards, the struggle, the dust storms, but we ate that dirt and succeeded and are now rich” gaaaaahh – how about “ live quietly amongst the masses” DUDE

#80 crowdedelevatorfartz on 04.27.22 at 10:03 pm

@#72 Ponzie’s Penny Pinching Pals
“They are about 45 workers short.
Started about one month ago to hire for 16 dollars.
No takers.
Now they offer up to 19 dollars.”

++++

Pffft.
I HIRED a kid a few weeks back as an inexperienced grunt labourer to carry for the other trades on the site. for $30 an hour.
A week later No show.
I texted him, “Whats up? You were supposed to start today?”
“I got a job for $40 an hour as a Carpenters helper. I’ll come and work for you for $40”
I texted him back, “You weren’t worth $30.”

The recession can’t come soon enough.

#81 Binder Dundat on 04.27.22 at 10:06 pm

Math challenged but lucky in real estate

#50 Ballingsford on 04.27.22 at 6:49 pm

Anyway, if that current price holds and sells, then my home appreciated 60% in less than 2 years. So, a 20% depreciation isn’t too bad for me yet. It would have to be 60% depreciation for me to break even.

***********************
Try that on a calculator. Surprisingly, a 37.5% decrease wipes out your 60% gain.

Ahhh Shawn is quite correct. Poor Bollingsford. Given the 20, a further 17.5% drop could easily happen in months, and bring the fella right back to where he/she started. Oh well, they were only paper gains anyway.

Real estate rule #13- Never buy anything sold in “batches” to artificially constrain supply, create FOMO and keep the price inflated. Good luck man.

#82 CL on 04.27.22 at 10:06 pm

I don’t even know how a society or economy can function let alone grow when shelter costs are so outrageous. I mean who in their right mind would ever move to a jurisdiction where you can’t find reasonably priced living accommodations? I’ve been looking at other countries to move to for years (not that I can at this point) but the first thing I look at is housing costs and quality / availability of health care systems. If the shoes were on the other feet I would never think of moving to Canada with the cost of shelter so insane.

#83 Shawn on 04.27.22 at 10:25 pm

The Cereal Aisle

CEF said:

Never a good sign when stores are bereft of Bran.
Next stop…the shredded wheat aisle…..

*********************
Funny you should mention that. I only recently started buying shredded wheat as well as bran. Shredded wheat (including spoon size) is I think the ONLY (ready to eat) cereal with zero sugar.

The whole wheat version I assume is best.

But it’s completely tasteless… Chop in a half banana for some taste.

#84 Ponzius Pilatus on 04.27.22 at 10:27 pm

#80 crowdedelevatorfartz on 04.27.22 at 10:03 pm
@#72 Ponzie’s Penny Pinching Pals
“They are about 45 workers short.
Started about one month ago to hire for 16 dollars.
No takers.
Now they offer up to 19 dollars.”

++++

Pffft.
I HIRED a kid a few weeks back as an inexperienced grunt labourer to carry for the other trades on the site. for $30 an hour.
A week later No show.
———————
Don’t blame him.
Who would wanna work for an as. like you?

#85 Ponzius Pilatus on 04.27.22 at 10:50 pm

83 Shawn on 04.27.22 at 10:25 pm
The Cereal Aisle

CEF said:

Never a good sign when stores are bereft of Bran.
Next stop…the shredded wheat aisle…..

*********************
Funny you should mention that. I only recently started buying shredded wheat as well as bran. Shredded wheat (including spoon size) is I think the ONLY (ready to eat) cereal with zero sugar.

The whole wheat version I assume is best.

But it’s completely tasteless… Chop in a half banana for some taste.
———————-
Steel cut oats is the only cereal you should eat.
Completely natural.
Just cook for 10 minutes.
And then add anything you want.
Your gut will thank you

#86 Sail Away on 04.27.22 at 11:14 pm

#79 Doug t on 04.27.22 at 10:02 pm
#48 cuke and tomato

OK once again – WE get it already “ the orchards, the struggle, the dust storms, but we ate that dirt and succeeded and are now rich” gaaaaahh – how about “ live quietly amongst the masses” DUDE

———-

Doug t, you’ve got issues man. Maybe it’s something else, but it comes across as meanspirited envy.

Maybe leave cuke alone?

#87 THE DANDADA on 04.27.22 at 11:19 pm

#43 Shawn on 04.27.22 at 6:13 pm

Cheap bread and sugar infested cereal….

I’ll sign up my pet pigs and local stray cats for SHAWN’s extravagant dinner special.

A clueless victim….. God bless you.

#88 Flop… on 04.27.22 at 11:21 pm

Reserve Bank of Australia seems set to start raising interest rates next Tuesday.

To celebrate they asked me to come of with one of my snappy slogans, this is what I came up with.

Australia; Our debt goes down the toilet in the opposite direction…

M47BC

#89 Sail Away on 04.27.22 at 11:25 pm

#85 Ponzius Pilatus on 04.27.22 at 10:50 pm

Steel cut oats is the only cereal you should eat.
Completely natural.
Just cook for 10 minutes.
And then add anything you want.
Your gut will thank you

———

I think barley. Straight, dry barley. A handful of barley and a ladle of Fraser water each morning should do ya. Two handfuls on your birthday.

#90 Flop… on 04.27.22 at 11:26 pm

Since this is Canada’s favourite Breakfast Blog, you guys are doing it all wrong.

Breakfast is overrated, you don’t need to worry about steel cut oats, rolled oats or any of that other nonsense.

The best thing for the mind and body each morning is 10 minutes of Hall and Oates…

M47BC

#91 John on 04.27.22 at 11:32 pm

Garth… But the same happens on the market. Look at S&P500, down 13% in 2022. The pattern here is obvious: the asset prices go up when the rates go down and vice versa. And by assets I mean the stocks and real estate.
The only difference is that the RE markets in Toronto (Vancouver etc) are regional VS the equities market is global. But in the end, they both are super emotional.

False. Apples & Teslas. – Garth

#92 Observer on 04.27.22 at 11:47 pm

Been tracking the Saanich Peninsula market on Vancouver Island for over the last year and a half and seems to be hitting a sudden wall the last 2 weeks. Common $200K over aks on $800K to $1.5 million range or so have dropped off fast with price cuts showing up more regular, increased listings and many listings taken off market. Some relisted lower, some not coming back on. Definite change in the ocean breeze on the isle.

#93 Ponzius Pilatus on 04.28.22 at 12:00 am

#89 Sail Away on 04.27.22 at 11:25 pm
#85 Ponzius Pilatus on 04.27.22 at 10:50 pm

Steel cut oats is the only cereal you should eat.
Completely natural.
Just cook for 10 minutes.
And then add anything you want.
Your gut will thank you

———

I think barley. Straight, dry barley. A handful of barley and a ladle of Fraser water each morning should do ya. Two handfuls on your birthday.
———————- xx x
Barley, water, hops and yeast.
That’s the only things that go into my home made beer.

#94 DON on 04.28.22 at 12:06 am

I was wondering if China’s recent lock downs were a chance to stick it to the West in terms of supply chains and related price increases and just lack of goods, crappy goods but they are cheap. Is everything being weaponized? Can the last 15 years exist again under these new circumstances.

Welcome to the new Cold War 2.0

As we step closer to war.

Slipperly slope

#95 Info Guy on 04.28.22 at 12:31 am

A week ago I was censored herein for bringing up a nasty detail regarding Trudeaus’ Virtue Signal War’ supplying heavy artillery to Ukraine starting Canada down the road to a hot war Canada has no ability to fight. Putin will shoot down or bombard a Canadian transport supply before a week is out. Trudeau will know this.

https://financialpost.com/pmn/business-pmn/putin-warns-west-of-lightning-retaliation-sanctions-batter-russian-economy

Russia will retaliate. Canada is a target that cannot retaliate. Putin will virtue signal right back and will not have to aggravate the U.K. or US in the action, which would mean real war. Trudeau is counting on the media coverage to cleanse his past deeds amidst his Emergencies Act p/r emergency. Our soldiers will pay the price.

You were deleted for adolescent name-calling. – Garth

#96 Satori on 04.28.22 at 12:40 am

#90 Flop… on 04.27.22 at 11:26 pm
Since this is Canada’s favourite Breakfast Blog, you guys are doing it all wrong.

Breakfast is overrated, you don’t need to worry about steel cut oats, rolled oats or any of that other nonsense.

The best thing for the mind and body each morning is 10 minutes of Hall and Oates…

M47BC
——————————-
LOL!! I wish Realtor.ca played “out of touch” while people look at listing pictures.

(BTW Redfin, way better, you can see the previous sale of listed homes…if you want your mind blown, some places just double in two years. I think sellers just make prices up now)

#97 Jane24 on 04.28.22 at 2:31 am

In the 1980s RE collapse, which lasted for 12 years by the way, we had no internet. It took about 3 weeks for the word to pass from the RE agents’ offices to the man on the street. With the internet it will take a couple of days only. The market will be dead as a dodo by Monday.

Yes the ‘please get me out of this deal’ phone calls will flood in and initially the seller will say no. In reality though the seller has to say yes and refund the deposit to the buyer as otherwise they cannot resell to another party. The last thing the seller wants is to be tied to a dead deal while the market price collapses around him each day he holds out. Yes when the second deal is eventually done the seller can sue the original buyer for the price differential but the saying ‘you can’t get blood from a stone’ will come to pass. Plus courts are backed-up due to covid delays.

If you have sold but not closed, believe me, you are not safe yet.

Love from a top RE agent in the 1980s wearing her t-shirt.

#98 under the radar on 04.28.22 at 5:55 am

76 – Bunny patch
” A purchase of rural or semi rural real estate exacerbated by a pandemic induced quest to flee a virus infested City, regardless of actual value, and without due consideration of a return to life after virus, or willful blindness as to the availability of services. ”

Now you know where it is.

#99 Meh on 04.28.22 at 7:42 am

#95 Info Guy on 04.28.22 at 12:31 am

You were deleted for adolescent name-calling. – Garth

——————————-

Ya Info Guy, that’s Garth’s job :p

#100 Ballingsford on 04.28.22 at 8:29 am

#55 Shawn on 04.27.22 at 7:50 pm
Math challenged but lucky in real estate

#50 Ballingsford on 04.27.22 at 6:49 pm

Anyway, if that current price holds and sells, then my home appreciated 60% in less than 2 years. So, a 20% depreciation isn’t too bad for me yet. It would have to be 60% depreciation for me to break even.

***********************
Try that on a calculator. Surprisingly, a 37.5% decrease wipes out your 60% gain. (6/1.6)

#56 Shawn on 04.27.22 at 7:51 pm
Typo challenfged

I meaned to say 0.6/1.6
*******
Yes, you are correct. I am math challenged. If it went down 60% it would be about just over half what I paid.

#101 crowdedelevatorfartz on 04.28.22 at 8:40 am

@#84 Presumptuous Ponzies Prevarications
“Don’t blame him.
Who would wanna work for an as. like you?”

+++

The other guys on the crew that makes between 41 and $50/hr BEFORE the annual profit sharing bonus?
( last year was ok. everyone averaged between $5-10k …. since I have to save some of the profits for me and the other owners you understand)
But its not about the money Ponzie.
We all show up every morning to sing songs and share stories. The work is secondary
Like all you lemon sucking Austrian accountants.

#102 crowdedelevatorfartz on 04.28.22 at 8:44 am

@#77 Ponzies Perfect Population
“You keep on spewing your vitriol on the Downtown Eastside, which is about 1% of Vancouver proper.
Ever been to the other beautiful communities that make Vancouver the second most livable City on Earth?”

+++

Soooo thats why you live in Surrey?

#103 Steven on 04.28.22 at 8:52 am

The USA is Booming……LOL.

Negative GDP, hiking into a recession….

Buy away people, those so called “rate hikes” are stopping soon or the REAL depression we have been hiding by papering it over since 2009 will be a reality.

#104 Neo on 04.28.22 at 8:54 am

One negative GDP print already for Q1 in the US. That escalated quickly didn’t it Garth. I believe one more technically makes that a recession doesn’t it? Rates hikes weren’t even material at that point. We are already in a stagflation recession. In the next 12-18 months it will be more obvious.

#105 Paul on 04.28.22 at 9:19 am

#65 DON on 04.27.22 at 8:53 pm
Are we in the denial stage right now?

Judging by the comments today.

Better hope our neighbours can handle their payments.
————————————————————————————————
Yes, so many people hopping the real estate market “crashes” sink their neighbours, friends, co-workers, agents,flippers, mortgage brokers, builders, on and on.
Just remember if/when it happens no one will be unscathed!

#106 Dharma Bum on 04.28.22 at 9:29 am

Hang in there until the next boom, doggies.

The rich get richer.

#107 HUNGRY BEAR on 04.28.22 at 9:33 am

Keep raising those interest rates….

https://www.nytimes.com/live/2022/04/28/business/gdp-inflation-news

The US has full employment and 8.5% inflation. Do not misread the indicators. – Garth

#108 Dharma Bum on 04.28.22 at 9:33 am

#101 Crowdie

“Like all you lemon sucking Austrian accountants.”
——————————————————————————————————–

The hills are alive with them.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=b85BaYS0v50

#109 Frank Buck on 04.28.22 at 9:40 am

DELETED

#110 crowdedelevatorfartz on 04.28.22 at 9:50 am

@#105 Paul
“Yes, so many people hopping the real estate market “crashes” sink their neighbours, friends, co-workers, agents,flippers, mortgage brokers, builders, on and on.”

+++

Errr.
We refer to then here as …”greaterfools”….

#111 Quintilian on 04.28.22 at 9:57 am

#105 Paul on 04.28.22 at 9:19 am
“Yes, so many people hopping the real estate market “crashes” sink their neighbours, friends, co-workers, agents,flippers, mortgage brokers, builders, on and on.
Just remember if/when it happens no one will be unscathed!”

Not true, most will be unscathed.
For most people a home is a place to live, and it would be justifiable if it increased in value in line with inflation and the equity is built on the paid down mortgage.

A crash that wrings out the excessive unearned inflated profit would not only be an long term economic benefit, but more importantly it would right an injustice.

Paul, get a job, and invest. My generation does not owe you a luxurious retirement.
Earn it. Work for it.
It’s the right and honourable way.

#112 Sail Away on 04.28.22 at 9:59 am

#108 Dharma Bum on 04.28.22 at 9:33 am
#101 Crowdie

“Like all you lemon sucking Austrian accountants.”

———-

The hills are alive with them.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=b85BaYS0v50

———-

Careful. If spooked, the secretive dancing Forest Austrians will vanish in a swirl of lederhosen and dirndls, leaving behind only a faint aroma of edelweiss and a haunting sound… a sound much like that of music.

#113 DON on 04.28.22 at 10:05 am

#105 Paul on 04.28.22 at 9:19 am
#65 DON on 04.27.22 at 8:53 pm
Are we in the denial stage right now?

Judging by the comments today.

Better hope our neighbours can handle their payments.
————————————————————————————————
Yes, so many people hopping the real estate market “crashes” sink their neighbours, friends, co-workers, agents,flippers, mortgage brokers, builders, on and on.
Just remember if/when it happens no one will be unscathed!

**************

NOPE…Paul, some people are prudent and NOT overleveraged…they will weather the storm.

Those who tapped their paper equity will face the consequences.

Hope is not a factor but Reality is.

You seem worried! I am not.

#114 jess on 04.28.22 at 10:08 am

named and shamed

https://www.cnn.com/2022/04/27/business/archegos-arrest-sec-fraud/index.html

Prosecutors alleged in charging documents that Hwang, Halligan and their co-conspirators used Archegos “as an instrument of market manipulation and fraud, with far-reaching consequences for other participants in the United States securities markets, companies whose stock prices they manipulated, innocent employees of Archegos whose savings they gambled and the financial institutions left holding billions of dollars in losses.”

This is exactly the kind of criminal case the Department of Justice should prioritize, and we will continue to do so,” said United States Deputy Attorney General Lisa Monaco. “This case reaffirms that when executives commit crimes, those crimes and that conduct affect companies and ordinary citizens alike.”

“This kind of crime, the kind of crime that leaves a financial crater in its wake … jeopardizes pensions, savings, and jobs,” she said.
=====================
https://acf.international/bribetakers-list

In another act of defiance against the Kremlin, the Anti-Corruption Foundation (FBK) published Tuesday a list of over 6,000 bribe takers and warmongers who it says enabled Russian President Vladimir Putin’s illegal invasion of Ukraine.

Alexei Navalny Founded by Russian activist Alexei Navalny, FBK is a non-profit organization that investigates acts of corruption by high-ranking Russian government officials.Leonid Volkov, FBK’s Chief of Staff, posted on Twitter that the publication unmasks “The ones who started the war. Those who helped Putin usurp power. Those who financed the war. The ones who stole,” and “those who repressed the dissenters” against the Kremlin.Over the past two months, the West has responded to Russia’s illegal war with a plethora of sanctions against its economy; financial institutions; currency; and oligarchs, who have lost billions of dollars in assets for their backing of the authoritarian ruler.

#115 Linda on 04.28.22 at 10:26 am

#51 ‘uncle’ – I think at least some of the panic may be driven by circumstance. Someone who is retired or about to retire & who may require income from their portfolio to meet the monthly bills will most likely feel concern if that self same portfolio happens to drop. When the 2008 crisis hit not a few of the about to retire folks I was working with ended up working quite a while longer as they didn’t think they could afford to retire. This despite having a workplace pension plan in addition to CPP! Thing is, their expenses were still very high. Many had children still living at home, albeit most were either high school seniors or were attending university. A considerable number were still paying a mortgage or had spent $ from a HELOC to renovate, or had made purchases of expensive items such as motor homes as they planned to travel in retirement.

Now imagine if you don’t have a DB pension other than CPP & must rely on income from your portfolio to pay the bills. Makes any market drop much more stressful, no?

#116 crowdedelevatorfartz on 04.28.22 at 10:38 am

@#122 Sail Away
“If spooked, the secretive dancing Forest Austrians will vanish in a swirl of lederhosen and dirndls, leaving behind only a faint aroma of edelweiss and a haunting sound… a sound much like that of music….”

+++
Yes, we spotted them scurrying back into the forest……

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Eht6M2rcnWo

#117 THE DANDADA on 04.28.22 at 10:47 am

The US has full employment and 8.5% inflation. Do not misread the indicators. – Garth
——————————————————————

Do you really believe those bogus claims Garth?

Full employment considering nobody wants to go back to work? Full employment compared to what because today’s full emplyment is not the same numbers as pre-covid full employment.

8.5% inflation…HUH!?! Try buying a used car. Everything at my local dollar store went from 1$ to 1.25… Do that math. Gas bill through the roof. Bag of milk from 4.69 to 5.39.

We have a supply issue woldwide because of a shortage of labor and raising rates can’t fix that. There trying to fix a loud muffler by putting more air in the tires.

#118 willworkforpickles on 04.28.22 at 10:51 am

So the Fed is raising rates when the economy has never been as weak as it is now . Like I said 1 month into the first quarter, the first quarter is on target for negative growth and that could put us half way to the start of the next recession. Ditto to that. Further interest rate hikes should seal it half way through the year while the Fed lies about the strong economy that in fact does not exist.
A bubble economy built on debt, not real growth as is the artificial economy we have now, will only stay functioning with further debt infusions to keep it from imploding.
They don’t tell you these things…so nobody knows.

……………………………………………..he he he (too funny)

‘Never an economy as weak as now’? Such research is a complete embarrassment. Inflation and rates are rising because of economic strength, not weakness.- Garth

#119 HUNGRY BEAR on 04.28.22 at 11:11 am

FED’S POWELL: MY GOAL IS TO GET INFLATION DOWN WITHOUT A RECESSION.

There is not a great historical record for this. The Fed’s tools, at best, mainly revolve around managing the demand side. e.g. if you reduce demand, you can reduce inflation by causing a recession.

To reduce inflation while promoting growth would necessitate improving the supply side:

-Improved shipping logistics
-New oil wells and commodity mines
-New pipelines and manufacturing facilities.

The Q1 GDP print came in at -1.4% compared to 1% consensus expectations.

The goal to get inflation down without a recession is not off to a great start, it seems.

But maybe it’s different this time.

#120 Shawn on 04.28.22 at 11:11 am

U.S. GDP down 1% in Q1

#104 Neo on 04.28.22 at 8:54 am

One negative GDP print already for Q1 in the US. That escalated quickly didn’t it Garth. I believe one more technically makes that a recession doesn’t it? Rates hikes weren’t even material at that point. We are already in a stagflation recession. In the next 12-18 months it will be more obvious.

#107 HUNGRY BEAR on 04.28.22 at 9:33 am
Keep raising those interest rates….

https://www.nytimes.com/live/2022/04/28/business/gdp-inflation-news

The US has full employment and 8.5% inflation. Do not misread the indicators. – Garth

***************************************
Wow, when I heard about this 1% I figured it was for March not a whole quarter. Just how bad was March? I had not heard that January and February were down.

Could this be measurement error?

Garth points to the 8.5% inflation. GDP is always in real dollars. So we just need consumers to spend 8.5% more in nominal dollars just to get a 0% GDP?

GDP is real activity. With full employment how does GDP do down? Lower productivity?

I would take this 1% decline as a worry. (Or an opportunity – stock bargains ahead?)

#121 Ponzius Pilatus on 04.28.22 at 11:18 am

112 Sail Away on 04.28.22 at 9:59 am
#108 Dharma Bum on 04.28.22 at 9:33 am
#101 Crowdie

“Like all you lemon sucking Austrian accountants.”

———-

The hills are alive with them.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=b85BaYS0v50

———-

Careful. If spooked, the secretive dancing Forest Austrians will vanish in a swirl of lederhosen and dirndls, leaving behind only a faint aroma of edelweiss and a haunting sound… a sound much like that of music.
———————-
Sweet story, Sailo.
The Brothers Grimm could not have told it better.
Makes me home sick.

#122 Sail Away on 04.28.22 at 11:25 am

#116 crowdedelevatorfartz on 04.28.22 at 10:38 am
@#122 Sail Away

“If spooked, the secretive dancing Forest Austrians will vanish in a swirl of lederhosen and dirndls, leaving behind only a faint aroma of edelweiss and a haunting sound… a sound much like that of music….”

———

Yes, we spotted them scurrying back into the forest……

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Eht6M2rcnWo

———

Ah. Such elegance, as they gracefully flit past.

#123 DON on 04.28.22 at 11:52 am

The experts:

“IMF Director Kristalina Georgieva did just that during a recent panel discussion hosted by CNBC. She conceded that central banks globally “printed too much money and didn’t think of unintended consequences.”

I think we are not paying sufficient attention to the law of unintended consequences. We take decisions with an objective in mind and rarely think through what may happen that is not our objective. And then we wrestle with the impact of it.

“Take any decision that is a massive decision, like the decision that we need to spend to support the economy. At that time, we did recognize that maybe too much money in circulation and too few goods, but didn’t really quite think through the consequence in a way that upfront would have informed better what we do.”

Now apply her words to the common folk not in the know, who pickled themselves in debt.

#124 DON on 04.28.22 at 11:57 am

Are people hoping that a recession will keep house values elevated as they will lower rates?

#125 The Regulator on 04.28.22 at 12:20 pm

#77 – Ponzius : Vancouver is just somebodies wet dream. Not # 2. Mabey #222, after Vladivostok. Get over yourselves.

#126 willworkforpickles on 04.28.22 at 12:55 pm

“‘Never an economy as weak as now’? Such research is a complete embarrassment. Inflation and rates are rising because of economic strength, not weakness.- Garth”
…………………………………………………………………………………………………………..

My research is perfectly sound.
US 1st qtr results have come back negative 1.4% growth.
Inflation is rising because of government spending feeding the bubble economy .
This is not economic strength but the opposite due to government excess monetized by the Fed feeding an artificial economy of low to negative growth turned inflationary.
Central banks raising rates due to a strengthening economy is a big lie the Fed has perpetuated to raise rates perpetuating that other big lie of theirs they are fighting inflation which they aren’t in actual fact.
The economy in fact has never been weaker at the beginning of a rate hiking cycle like it is now ever before in history.
It won’t succeed.
Its just smoke and mirrors to get by a few more months without crashing the markets the Fed is up to, with no alternatives left but to lie to the public.
I’ve gone over this more times than i can count here already.

I give up. – Garth

#127 Captain Uppa on 04.28.22 at 1:15 pm

#98 under the radar on 04.28.22 at 5:55 am
76 – Bunny patch
” A purchase of rural or semi rural real estate exacerbated by a pandemic induced quest to flee a virus infested City, regardless of actual value, and without due consideration of a return to life after virus, or willful blindness as to the availability of services. ”

Now you know where it is.

—————————-

Uh huh, ok.

So everyone who works in Toronto (416) should live in Toronto (416), otherwise it’s bunny patch (worth less).

I feel like there would actually be a deep supply issue with that logic – one that can’t be fixed, as this isn’t Minecraft or SimCity.

And to me rural is open fields upon open fields and farms.

Not sure if you have been brave enough to step north of the 401, but maybe you should take a peek one day.

#128 Froggy on 04.28.22 at 2:41 pm

Sorry hungry bear but you a real piece of work no house won’t be going back up soon and rents will come down accordingly when home’s come down over 50% if you think that won’t happen then let me know how you feel when rates are 6% what home’s Will be worth what a joke sad to see it happen but there’s no stopping it 100%

#129 under the radar on 04.28.22 at 3:16 pm

127 -I have a home in Mono on 50 acres. Might even qualify for Bunny patch.

#130 PeterfromCalgary on 04.28.22 at 3:27 pm

I think it is very hard to be a central banker right now. The housing market is slowing and that is good but their is another nastier source of price inflation his name is Putin.

Central banks can’t do much about the fact that Putin just cut off the world from much of the fertilizer, food and fuel that it relies on. Apparently Putin didn’t get the memo from Mahatma Gandhi that empires are bad and unsustainable.

What can a central bank do about a dictator who fails to learn from history? Put Gandhi on the hundred dollar bill as a hint to Putin. That probably won’t work.

#131 willworkforpickles on 04.28.22 at 3:59 pm

“I give up. – Garth”
…………………………..

Fine….but there are economists digging deep for the truth covered up behind the facade the Fed puts out there for the mainstream to embrace.
Funny though how the mainstream always catches up eventually to what these think tank experts have already said months earlier and then they (the mainstream economists) are suddenly the experts.

#132 Chris L. on 04.28.22 at 9:47 pm

BANNED