Losing it

Emotion is a daunting wall to climb. Most don’t make it.

“We’ve been reading your blog for a decade and we are aware that timing the market is extremely poor strategy,” Thomas wrote me on the weekend. “Alas presently it is hard for us to see or envision the forces that would compel the market to stay at present levels let alone to post gains.

“World economic and political events compel us to exit the financial market effective immediately. So we are liquidating all of our positions (100 %) in all of the accounts and going to cash until we are ready to enter the market again. Once the dust settles we will explore deploying the funds into the market again.”

Well, we all know the current situation. Putin attacked Ukraine. That mess could escalate. Inflation is the worst it’s been in four decades. Interest rates are shooting up and will continue for at least a year. The supply chain is busted. Adele is touring again. Trump’s coming back. Real estate’s about to plop. Stock markets are skittish and scary.

So is it reasonable for Tom to liquidate existing positions, trigger capital gains taxes, incur trading costs and go to cash, which pays almost nothing and is depreciating at 8% a year? Is it prudent to run to the exits after a portfolio has lost some ground, then hope to jump back in when the sun comes out again?

That’s the emotional route, for sure. And it is emotion – greed, fear, envy, lust, desire, dismay – driving so many of our actions. These days doomer websites bristle with talk of recession and crash. Is it prophesy? Or clickbait? After all, the strongest emotion we ever feel is terror. No wonder that button is pushed so often by people with something to sell.

First, let’s review.

Partly it’s war and politics, but mostly inflation and interest rates, which have hit equity markets. As I write this, US markets are sitting about 11.5% below their all-time highs. Bay Street is down 5.5% from its peak. A typical B&D portfolio has given up about 6% of its value.

Whazzit mean?

Well, if you’ve been invested for the last three years (for example), putting $100,000 to work in January of 2019 then forgetting about it, today you have $131,500. Yup, it was $140,000 before Putin blew across the Ukrainian border and central banks found a spine. Yes, volatility has increased. But this still represents a return of 10% a year. Is that a crisis?

In mechanical terms, the worst possible time to sell is in the teeth of a storm. Paper losses are made real. Taxes are often triggered. The income stream from interest, dividends or distributions ceases. All an investor is doing is gambling things will get way worse for a very long time in order to justify the sale.

Moreover, when to get back in?

For those who panic and run to cash, redeploying capital is something they freeze at. Every week, incredibly, I run into people who cashed out during the 2009 credit crisis and haven’t invested since. They could have easily doubled or quadrupled their money, but did not. Emotion prevented it.

History shows investors who miss the good days of market recovery do far worse than those who bailed to avoid the worst days. Meanwhile all you need do is check out a long-term graph of market values to see financial assets pace economic growth and expansion. Over the course of anyone’s life, they goes up.

Also remember the wise words published on this very blog by my snappy colleague, Doug Rowat:

A common refrain is that you’ll get back into the market “when the dust settles”—the four most performance-damaging words in the history of investing. When the dust settles is actually code for “when I personally feel better in the pit of my stomach”, but by the time you “feel better” the market will have already rallied. Look how fast markets rebounded in 2020 during the Covid crisis. No one “felt better” in 2020. There were no vaccines, deaths and hospitalizations ran rampant, the global economy sat in recession (and we sat in our homes), the government response was often chaotic and contradictory…and yet markets soared. How you feel emotionally is never useful when making investment decisions.

Exactly. But wait. Is there a recession coming? Is society out of control? Is it different this time?

Here’s what we know so far…

Putin’s ruthless and Zelensky is a cult figure. The US says Ukraine will outlast the Russian leader. So this thing will not be over soon and will have permanent economic implications as the aggressor country pays dearly.

More consequential for markets than war (like pandemics, they always end) is inflation and the CB response to it. Bankers let prices rip too much for too long and will now use the blunt instrument of interest rates to hammer them into submission. This will take a year or more. Stock markets are reacting badly but will feel much better once the CPI starts to dip. (It’s residential real estate which will put the most blood in the gutter.)

Could the central banks tilt us into a recession?

Of course. Recessions are normal, healthy and one is long overdue. They help reset prices, blow off excess valuations and set the stage for more sustainable long-term growth and recovery. The average recession lasts 17 months. The average growth period is about four years.

But a recession is by no means certain. The CBs will try for a soft landing – a cooler economy, lower inflation and still positive economic growth. That’s the goal now. It comes post-pandemic, of course, when the global economy has been rapidly recovering, plus corporate profits over the last year have been boffo. Consumer spending is robust. We have virtually full employment. There’s a ton to feel warm & fuzzy about.

But, Thomas cries, I just can’t take seeing losses. It hurts too much.

Two answers. First, if you don’t need the money in your portfolio in the next few months to acquire something big, retire, send your kid to college or buy your GF that Porsche, then chill. Second, stop looking at your accounts. After all, do you appraise your house every day?

Emotion ain’t your friend.  Worry about your weight, instead. More meaningful.

About the picture: “Meet Patch. Mr. Patch, as my Granddaughter calls him, enjoying his furever home since he joined us as a stray 15 years ago…about the same time as we discovered your Blog,” writes Greg. “Your daily posts have not only taught, inspired and entertained us they have also kept us grounded and able to tune out the noise so we focus on what is actually important. By following your advise our balanced and diversified portfolio will keep us in kibble and wine for the remainder of our collective days, for that we are truly grateful. Thank you.”

134 comments ↓

#1 Prince Polo on 04.25.22 at 2:43 pm

Any chance Tom wants to lend me his cash for 2.5% so that I can invest it in some choice ETFs???

#2 Doug t on 04.25.22 at 2:44 pm

Money
Get away
You get a good job with more pay and you’re okay
Money
It’s a gas
Grab that cash with both hands and make a stash
New car, caviar, four star, daydream
Think I’ll buy me a football team
Money
Get back
I’m alright, Jack, keep your hands off of my stack
Money
It’s a hit
Don’t give me that do goody good bullshit
I’m in the high-fidelity first-class traveling set
And I think I need a Lear jet
Money
It’s a crime
Share it fairly, but don’t take a slice of my pie
Money
So they say
Is the root of all evil today
But if you ask for a rise
It’s no surprise that they’re giving none away
Away, away, away
Away, away, away

#3 TurnerNation on 04.25.22 at 2:56 pm

Food Supply/Control over our feeding. It never ends with these guys.
Consp. Theorists have told of this for decades, global control over our food supply, taking away our independence.
Remember, the ‘news’ has one goal, manufacturing of consent.

https://www.ctvnews.ca/health/antibiotic-resistant-superbug-found-in-pigs-could-be-vector-for-human-transmission-study-1.5874460


—Kanada: Free health care, dental and pharma (for many). Who would not want to come here. And they will. That’s the plan man. Our global rulers play the Long Game. Never forget.

https://twitter.com/InstituteGC/status/1516824021005963270?
.Century Initiative https://www.centuryinitiative.ca
The Century Initiative is focused on responsibly and thoughtfully growing the population of Canada to 100 million by 2100.

—- Our heath care system is so good, our leaders care about us so much. Keep paying your taxes everybody!

https://www.macleans.ca/longforms/canadian-paramedics-are-in-crisis/
“Canadian paramedics are in crisis
PTSD, burnout, and a pandemic. How COVID pushed the country’s overworked first responders into emergency territory By Christina Frangou April 20, 2022”

#4 Søren Angst on 04.25.22 at 2:57 pm

77th Festa della Liberazione (Liberation Day) today. My parents farms, here in NE Italia, were Partisan during WWII.

25,890 Canadian casualties to help liberate them and Italia from Nazi-Fascism.

🍁 🍁 🍁 🍁 🍁

Grazie mille CANADA.

Libertà.

#5 Settled dust storms on 04.25.22 at 3:01 pm

“World economic and political events compel us to exit the financial market effective immediately. So we are liquidating all of our positions (100 %) in all of the accounts and going to cash until we are ready to enter the market again. Once the dust settles we will explore deploying the funds into the market again.”

__________

Sounds like a great strategy. Then you can buy everything when it is cheap(er). Not sure why I didn’t think of that 40 years ago when I started investing.

BTW, if you don’t mind, could you send me a text to let me know when the “dust has settled”.

#6 Ustabe on 04.25.22 at 3:02 pm

If I was a strategist involved in the Ukraine thing I might start planning on Mr. Putin’s nuclear abilities being on par with his military ones.

Second thought: being old enough to recall recessions #1 through 5, austerity, debt, cash flow issues, etc I can tell you its not going to be as bad as some of you think.

People are mostly a resilient force.

More than a few here need to remind themselves of that thought.

#7 Al on 04.25.22 at 3:02 pm

Macklem said, “This is imported inflation.” What else can he say – that he was wrong and incompetent.

#8 IHCTD9 on 04.25.22 at 3:06 pm

Could be a doozy of a summer with the way things are headed.

#9 Joe Lalonde on 04.25.22 at 3:06 pm

Not hard to understand the damage done by Trudeau since this event DID NOT take place as it should have…
Another ‘What if’ Trudeau was charged by the RCMP back in 2016…
https://blazingcatfur.ca/2022/04/25/rcmp-considered-charging-trudeau-with-fraud-over-2016-aga-khan-trip-access-to-information-request-shows/
Canada certainly would be different today.
Instead it’s corruption has destroyed Canadians and Canada with all this crap he’s imposed and have done since.

#10 Pound foolish! on 04.25.22 at 3:10 pm

“Emotion ain’t your friend. Worry about your weight, instead. More meaningful.”

_______

Except that now he will probably end up weighing himself after every meal!

#11 Søren Angst on 04.25.22 at 3:12 pm

As much as I like to come up with my own material, I agree with Garth (Doug) and Buffett:

“Be fearful when others are greedy. Be greedy when others are fearful.”

With that in mind, I threadbare bought TWTR today just after the opening bell…

+5.52%
Apr 25, 2:41:25 PM UTC-4

[Grazie Elon]

Staying vested. More Divs in today, spending them all on more ETFs/ETNs.

Garth’s chart has it:

It will get better.

#12 Chris L. on 04.25.22 at 3:14 pm

Yeah, if the market already turned, you’re too late. You gotta sell when you reach your targets. Then wait for the inevitable cycle lows. Market timing isn’t rocket science. Just read a lot and stop listening to your feelings.

Sold out months ago. Except oil. Doing great, thanks.

#13 Flop… on 04.25.22 at 3:15 pm

Mrs Flop asked me what to top her TFSA up with tomorrow.

I told her to back the truck up on The Nasdaq Index.

If it backfires the truck will probably find a way to run me over as well.

Here’s my investment advice guarantee.

You ask a stupid person, you get a stupid answer…

M47BC

#14 jess on 04.25.22 at 3:17 pm

The deal is expected to close this year.
https://www.cnn.com/2022/04/25/tech/elon-musk-twitter-sale-agreement/index.html

…”banning ads on content from climate change deniers on its platform, as well as prohibiting advertisements that deny climate change.
Separately, hours after Twitter’s policy update, European policymakers reached agreement on sweeping tech regulations that included stricter rules on how platforms regulate misinformation and illegal content on social media and other platforms.

An open letter signed by more than 200 scientists, activists and organizations last November called for the CEOs of social media companies including Facebook, Instagram, Google, Twitter, TikTok, Pinterest and Reddit to establish climate misinformation policies similar to the ones they put in place for Covid-19.
Last November, Twitter rolled out efforts to preemptively debunk, or “pre-bunk,” disinformation about such topics as climate change by directing users to online hubs with credible information on its platform. Twitter also joined the EU climate pact earlier in February, committing to increasing efforts on promoting reliable climate information.“Today, our society has reached another tipping point,” he wrote in a letter to investors. Facebook hoped “to rewire the way people spread and consume information.” By giving them “the power to share,” it would help them to “once again transform many of our core institutions and industries.”

#15 an investor on 04.25.22 at 3:18 pm

People don’t trust the markets, the media, the government, or financial blogs. That’s why they go to cash. They feel the system is rigged.

Guess who created the cash? Ooops. – Garth

#16 bdwy on 04.25.22 at 3:21 pm

elon did it!

free speech coming to twitter!

trump will be back…

#17 Pilot Pro on 04.25.22 at 3:21 pm

Soft landing is hopium Garth. Price stability is more important than short term GDP considerations. The banks WILL cause a recession with their (entirely appropriate) aggressive monetary policy tightening.

It is in your clientele’s best interest to stay invested, of course, but you know as surely as you know about the ongoing correction in the housing market: a soft landing is a dream that blunt monetary policy instruments cannot engineer. The advice remains the same, you can’t miss out on the big green days, but you have to prepare for a major correction just like real estate. Stocks and bonds are overpriced based on last year’s monetary policy and last year’s earnings, just like any other asset currently is.

You cannot be so clear-eyed about Canadian real estate while giving a false impression about stocks. The ONLY difference is the leverage.

False. RE prices ride on cheap money and 100% emotion. Equity markets are fueled by corporate earnings. – Garth

#18 Be Best on 04.25.22 at 3:22 pm

The bottom-line misses and lower than expected earnings have started. This is not going to be a good year. All the people demanding to work from home will find their jobs outsourced for 1/3 of the cost. Employees will learn the hard way that shareholders always get what they want.

#19 earthboundmisfit on 04.25.22 at 3:22 pm

Hey … Doug t

It’s appropriate to give credit when quoting others. In this case, I’d warrant that three quarters of the folks on this blog will not recognize this from DSOTM, the greatest album of all time. (Rolling Stone – Greatest 500 albums notwithstanding)

#20 Bitcoin Bro on 04.25.22 at 3:22 pm

I think many of the contemporary “doom and gloom” macro thesis have merit. Odds are, it’s going to be a rough decade.

These concerns still arent enough to do something as stupid as liquidate everything into cash!!!

https://www.investmentoffice.com/Observations/Markets_in_History/Stock_Markets_during_the_second_World_War.html

Thomas, I implore you to examine the above! Track the DOW from about 1937-1947. As bad as things could get, they aren’t going to get 1941-42 bad! And if they do, the value of your portfolio will be the furthest thing from your mind anyways.

#21 Collin Kapernick on 04.25.22 at 3:23 pm

Any percent gains in the stock market are purely the result of money printing. If you think this is going to continue you are dead wrong. We will see hyperinflation, the collapse of the US dollar(petro dollar), Bond market collapse. The [DS] will try to force you to use their centrally designed infinitely controllable CBDC’s. ONLY thing left standing will be physical gold and silver and ..some… legit crypto. Probably ban this message- not sure why…all facts.

Interesting how many people have no idea what they’re talking about, yet do it with such conviction. Impressive. – Garth

#22 Søren Angst on 04.25.22 at 3:24 pm

#2 Doug t

That was good.

Still, I remain threadbare fond of The Flying Lizards…

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=E-P2qL3qkzk

Their lyrics are easier to remember.

https://genius.com/The-flying-lizards-money-thats-what-i-want-lyrics

That’s what I want.

#23 Alex G. on 04.25.22 at 3:24 pm

#90 Difference? on 04.24.22 at 7:36 pm
#120 Don Guillermo on 04.25.22 at 12:07 am
#129 crowdedelevatorfartz on 04.25.22 at 8:24 am

So an entire country deserved a decade of war, because one dude was apparently there…but actually he was in Pakistan? And after they whacked him they stayed around for another decade, TWO decades in total, and left the place easily much worse than they found it.

***********************

The invasion of Iraq was inexcusable. They were one of the most progressive of the middle East. I believe 19 of the 911 bombers were Saudis. No reprocussions there. Obviously Afghanistan was a breading ground for the Taliban so I get that. Bush junior was a disaster. Changed daylight savings time around though.

***********************

If Saddam Hussein’s gassing of Iraq Kurdish men, women and children was “progressive” ….then I guess we should expect the same “progressive” tactics from Putin?

***********************

The vast majority of wars are terrible for the average person on the ground and often profit most a select group of individuals which almost never are stuck in the trenches. I know our species can do better but so far, history is ripe with examples of the contrary. I still hold out hope. But yes, double-standards are plentiful *cough* election interference/regime change *cough*: https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/monkey-cage/wp/2016/12/23/the-cia-says-russia-hacked-the-u-s-election-here-are-6-things-to-learn-from-cold-war-attempts-to-change-regimes/

While I’m no fan of Saddam, Don Guillermo is correct to say that Iraq used to be one of the most progressive countries in the Middle East… in the 60s and 70s. Deutsche Welle did released an excellent 4-documentary series a few weeks ago (in English) titled “Destruction of a nation” going all the way back to the 60s and looking at the Iraq wars etc. Definitively worth a watch; likely recontextualizes things quite a bit for many: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DLRfecGZhts

As for Putin, I wish it was a simple as one crazy dictator that has gotten too power hungry (which he is by the way). The truth is a much more complicated mix of realpolitik with national spheres of influence (I hate that this is the world we live in; in an ideal one each nation should dictate its own fate – but that’s not where we are in 2022 – this applies to all powerful nations, whether democracies or autocracies from left to right of the spectrum to some extent by the way – review first link above if in doubt), natural resources (mainly oil & gas in Eastern Ukraine and in the Black Sea), and perceived military security/projection of power (the Russians, regardless of leader, will not allow their military naval base at Sevastopol to be “lost” without a serious fight nor will they be happy about Ukraine joining NATO – the April 2008 Bucharest Summit was a mess that significantly contributed to the Georgian war and now Ukraine) to name but a few reasons for the current mess.

Is Putin wrong for killing innocent Ukrainians? Of course! A single casualty from this mess is one too many! But when people actually bother looking at Russia’s military and leadership doctrine, it was, sadly, a but matter of time, whether Putin was at the helm or Navalny (who would be much better for Russia internally, but don’t kid yourself about his international views of Russia and the world; look it up I’ve rambled for long enough already).

In the meantime, my heart goes out to the people of Ukraine (and to all those in all the other wars few seem to ever talk about with much higher casualties… we’re all human after all… right?) and keep hoping that our species will eventually get beyond our basic urges to get more than our neighbour. Might have to wait for quite some time, I fear.

#24 crowdedelevatorfartz on 04.25.22 at 3:27 pm

The tax hit getting out would be ugly.

I’m hanging in, adding to the RRSP and TFSA contribution room as a tax avoidance strategy….. and loading up on cash outside the portfolio.

Vultures may circle for a while yet before feasting on the economic carrion rotting in the sun…..

#25 ogdoad on 04.25.22 at 3:34 pm

What if you don’t have a red cent to invest? Can emotion be your friend then?

Oxy, ser and dopa are my besties. Cor can be a piece of work sometimes but she means well.

Og

#26 Dolce Vita...just for this on 04.25.22 at 3:35 pm

77th Festa della Liberazione (Liberation Day) today. My parents farms, here in NE Italia, were Partisan during WWII.

25,890 Canadian casualties to help liberate them and Italia from Nazi-Fascism.

🍁 🍁 🍁 🍁 🍁

Grazie mille CANADA.

Libertà.

#27 Sail Away on 04.25.22 at 3:38 pm

Arbitrage, arbitrage. Even if everyone else knows about it, there’s still money to be made.

Cleared 12% in a 1.5 weeks with my man Elon:

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/elon-musk-acquire-twitter-185000836.html

Still working the Activision and BRP arbitrages.

#28 Stoph on 04.25.22 at 3:42 pm

Tom may be right that world economic and political events will get worse before they get better, but this does not necessary correlate to market performance.

Just take a look at what happened with Covid. The market started tanking Feb 2020, bottomed March 2020 and has been cruising upward since. Anyone who invested according to their analysis that Covid would be a muti-year ordeal and wouldn’t be over by Xmas were correct in their analysis of the Covid but completely off with the assumption that the market would follow the devastation caused by Covid.

#29 Sail Away on 04.25.22 at 3:45 pm

#12 Flop… on 04.25.22 at 3:15 pm

Mrs Flop asked me what to top her TFSA up with tomorrow.

I told her to back the truck up on The Nasdaq Index.

———

It’s probably good advice. I’d agree.

#30 willworkforpickles on 04.25.22 at 3:46 pm

The CPI won’t begin to dip a year or more from now . Not with these tiny rate increases . Inflation is here to stay. Best to learn to live with it.

#31 CL on 04.25.22 at 3:47 pm

“Experts” are coming out now saying the cb’s won’t be as aggressive as they indicated. I can’t see how that’s possible as they will lose any credibility they have but if things tip too much too fast it will be a problem.

#32 Phil McCracken on 04.25.22 at 3:48 pm

If Tom doesn’t like to volatility of equities or bonds, he could earn high and stable interest from DeFi lending markets through Stablecoins purchased via Stablegains.

“Earn up to 15% interest on your cash. This is 30x higher than in your traditional bank. Stablegains’ 15% APY is earned using a selection of leading DeFi lending markets.
Decentralized Finance (DeFi) is a quickly growing alternative to traditional finance and banking.

Our mission at Stablegains is to bring the benefits of DeFi to everyone.

We make money when you make money. The difference between interest we earn on deposits (between 18% and 20% in Anchor) and the 15%+ we pass on to Stablegains customers is captured by Stablegains and used to pay your transaction fees and our bills.”

https://stablegains.zendesk.com/hc/en-us/articles/4402680481425-How-does-Stablegains-make-money-

Anchor is a decentralized savings protocol offering low-volatile yields on Terra stablecoin deposits. The Anchor rate is powered by a diversified stream of staking rewards from major proof-of-stake blockchains, and therefore can be expected to be much more stable than money market interest rates. The Anchor community believes that a stable, reliable source of yield in Anchor has the opportunity to become the reference interest rate in crypto.
https://docs.anchorprotocol.com/

Let me know how it goes, Tom.

Ha, ha. – Garth

#33 Pilot Pro on 04.25.22 at 3:52 pm

“False. RE prices ride on cheap money and 100% emotion. Equity markets are fueled by corporate earnings. – Garth”

False. Supply and demand controls all markets, and a central bank that is faced with price instability MUST intervene to reduce demand no matter what it does to valuations. Equities, real estate, beanie babies, everything.

Interest rates up, earnings down. Period. The Roaring Twenties of the 20th century was a mistake, and the Fed won’t let it happen again.

Reminder: never argue with a troll. Or a doomer. – Garth

#34 TurnerNation on 04.25.22 at 4:07 pm

“Dear Advisor/Adviser. Please get me to cash [sic].

P.s. Where are the customers’ blogs?”


USA. We pretend to work, they pretend to pay us. Food stamps — to your door.

https://www.amazon.com/snap-ebt/b?node=19097785011
What can you buy with your SNAP EBT on Amazon?
Fruits, vegetables, meat, poultry, fish, and dairy products. Breads, cereals, canned vegetables, and pantry staples . Other foods such as snacks, seeds, and non-alcoholic beverages
Look for items labeled SNAP EBT Eligible

—–
The future:

– The Digital ID. A big part of what was kicked off globally March 2020.
They got the former leaders shilling for this too.

“Tony Blair Institute @InstituteGC
Most of us use physical documents to prove our identity online. But what if this could be made easier through a digital ID on your phone? Here’s everything you need to know about digital identification….
https://twitter.com/InstituteGC/status/1516824021005963270

— …Which leads to…Is this place a test bed? Sounds very normal!!

https://news.trust.org/item/20220420123542-btwyo/
She later realised her SIM card was one of about 73 million – more than a third of the 198 million in Nigeria – which have been barred from making outgoing calls because they have not been registered in the national digital identity database.
Nigeria is among dozens of African countries including Ghana, Egypt and Kenya with SIM registration laws that authorities say are necessary for security purposes, but digital rights experts say increase surveillance and hurts privacy.
Nigeria has been rolling out 11-digit electronic national identity cards for almost a decade, which record an individual’s personal and biometric data, including fingerprints and photo.

#35 Søren Angst on 04.25.22 at 4:09 pm

Equity markets are fueled by corporate earnings. – Garth

Exactly.

—————-

CAPM explains it adequately enough.

https://www.investopedia.com/terms/c/capm.asp

When Rf, the risk free rate goes up (CB rate), so does the required rate of return (expected return of investment or more simply, the discount rate).

That means the Present Value of future cash flows at a higher discount rate are worth less today. For example, $1000 received at the end of each year for 5 years at two different annually compounded discount rates:

1% = $951.47
3% = $862.61

Means company earning values will go down, discounted, as CB rates increase.

What is happening in Mr. Market is that. Mr. Market has already impounded 2 US Fed rate increases to date. Skittish because uncertainty as to whether the increase will be 0.5% or more?

—————-

Inflation, war adds to the risk premium or ERm – I hate to say it, but in part a guesstimate as in:

“One man’s meat is another man’s poison”.

What we read about in the Blog today and some in the Comments.

#36 Alberta Ed on 04.25.22 at 4:15 pm

Fired up the Harley yesterday. Blue Jays looking good. Singhdeau is swirling around the drain. Investments down at the moment but in good hands. Spring’s here, summer’s on the way.

#37 Dr V on 04.25.22 at 4:19 pm

A timely and good explanation Mr T.

Patch is a handsome fellow.

A little red in my TFSA (NASDAQ purchase earlier this year) and some in the non-reg – mostly recent purchases which were re-investments into more focused funds (dividend etfs) after taking the gains on old holdings. Lots of green left on US Index (have taken some gains over last 2 years), dividend payers
(purchased 2020) and bank stock. Divvies keep coming.

I notice the NASDAQ seems to get bounces when it hits bear territory. Who knows if that will continue but it’s up today.

Also a tax refund thanks to a re-examination of business earnings from last year.

#38 Søren Angst on 04.25.22 at 4:21 pm

#27 Sail Away

Cleared 12% * in a 1.5 weeks with my man Elon.

————————-

* ($51.70 – $44.48)/$44.48 = about 14%

I’m elated with my threadbare +5.66% today. Not as daring as you. On a day for day basis, I win. Total cash, you win.

I know:

oh yeah of little faith.

Going to sell before the magic $54.50 number and take my threadbare capital gain (and buy ETFs/ETNs).

#39 Slim on 04.25.22 at 4:24 pm

“For those who panic and run to cash, redeploying capital is something they freeze at.”

Been there, done that.

#40 Lt. Commander Data on 04.25.22 at 4:25 pm

DELETED (Anti-vax)

#41 IHCTD9 on 04.25.22 at 4:32 pm

LQAM looking better all the time. The second half of this year may see a lot of folks grappling with a strange new reality. I can hear the wallets slamming closed already. Nothing like a fading GDP, slack revenues, and a clown PM racking up 50+ Billion dollar deficits supporting junk policy. All the while, the debt servicing costs balloon – to be unleashed years from now on a weary Citizenry. Well, those who still have to work that is…

It’s a great time to own assets, a B+D stash, and be debt free. The IH household will be feeding 2 Universities come September, preparations are already under way to do it on after tax cashflow alone. Preparedness for Post-Trudeau Canada is a high priority. It’s getting clearer every day he’s steered us into an iceberg.

#42 Steven on 04.25.22 at 4:40 pm

Here’s what we know so far…

Putin’s ruthless and Zelensky is a cult figure. The US says Ukraine will outlast the Russian leader. So this thing will not be over soon and will have permanent economic implications as the aggressor country pays dearly.

That is what YOU know so far…THIS is what I KNOW so far, not “we”. :

Putin IS ruthless as he wants what he thinks Russia “should be” AND needs high energy, food prices in order to feed his residents (plus add BILLIONS to his NW.)

Z man IS a “cult hero” as he is doing the Right thing like any norma human being would do is to SURVIVE. How does that make him a hero? EVERY PERSON, ANIMAL, INSECT on this planet is trying to SURVIVE. That makes him a hero? I admire him but a hero for trying to survive? He has no choice as anyone of us would be.

Uncle Joe and his fellow Democrat are getting their kick at the graf can by taking a cut out of the MILLIONS of dollars sent in arms to Ukraine. They know they are done at the mid terms, their Build back better is going nowhere and they have to get their graf anyway they can before the Repubs start getting theirs sooner than later.

Who suffers? As always the human beings who are being killed and displaced all for the greed of few….as always.

As Bruce Cockburn sang in IF I had a Rocket Launcher:

[Verse 1]
Here comes the helicopter—second time today
Everybody scatters and hopes it goes away
How many kids they’ve murdered only God can say, hey

[Chorus]
If I had a rocket launcher
If I had a rocket launcher
If I had a rocket launcher
I’d make somebody pay

[Verse 2]
I don’t believe in guarded borders and I don’t believe in hate
I don’t believe in generals or their stinking torture states
And when I talk with the survivors of things too sickening to relate

[Chorus]
If I had a rocket launcher
If I had a rocket launcher
If I had a rocket launcher
I would retaliate

[Verse 3]
On the Rio Lacantún one hundred thousand wait
To fall down from starvation—or some less humane fate
Cry for Guatemala with a corpse in every gate

[Chorus]
If I had a rocket launcher
If I had a rocket launcher
If I had a rocket launcher
I would not hesitate

[Verse 4]
I want to raise every voice—at least I’ve got to try
Every time I think about it water rises to my eyes
Situation desperate, echoes of the victims cry

[Chorus]
If I had a rocket launcher
If I had a rocket launcher
If I had a rocket launcher
Some son of a bitch would die.

I’d add an es to the word bitch.

#43 Sail Away on 04.25.22 at 4:42 pm

#38 Søren Angst on 04.25.22 at 4:21 pm
#27 Sail Away

Cleared 12% * in a 1.5 weeks with my man Elon.

——–

* ($51.70 – $44.48)/$44.48 = about 14%

I’m elated with my threadbare +5.66% today. Not as daring as you. On a day for day basis, I win. Total cash, you win.

I know:

oh yeah of little faith.

Going to sell before the magic $54.50 number and take my threadbare capital gain (and buy ETFs/ETNs).

——–

Good work. I sold 80% of my position just before the bell today but will hang onto the rest for the long term. Still green in after hours.

There’s lots of benefit to arbitrage. One of Buffett’s best strategies.

#44 cramar on 04.25.22 at 4:48 pm

#16 bdwy on 04.25.22 at 3:21 pm
elon did it!

free speech coming to twitter!

trump will be back…

—————-

I’ve been thinking that maybe I was wrong about Musk being a genius. Maybe I should dump my Tesla shares.

“You cannot have freedom without responsibility. Otherwise it is just anarchy.”
– cramar

#45 Ponzius Pilatus on 04.25.22 at 4:50 pm

Re: Picture
Majestic Cat.
Just like mine.

#46 Ponzius Pilatus on 04.25.22 at 4:51 pm

#140 NoName on 04.25.22 at 1:02 pm
#136 Ponzius Pilatus on 04.25.22 at 11:01 am
#125 Dr V on 04.25.22 at 1:30 am
115 jane (describing Kelowna)
” My family keep packed suitcases by the door in the summer.”
—————————————
They could head for Switzerland! Sounds awesome! You can have a great bike, ride it on good roads, and have a trained bike mechanic!
—————————-
Schweiz is far too expensive.
Try Oesterreich.
Made for biking, can bike almost every where.
And after a good day of biking, a hearty rutabaga/turnip stew awaits.
Sailo and CEF approved.
Wash it all down with great Stiegel Beer.
Mention Ponzius sent you and get a complementary shot of Schnapps.
Prost.

Waht ever you do dont do Osterich! As soon they see foreign license plates, you’ll get pulled and get ticket for for something.
—————————-
Well, I think you’re stretching it a little bit.
But I agree that many North Americans have problems adjusting/accepting different cultures and customs.
Call it a superiority complex.
And they expect everything to be like home.
I think it’s better for them to stick with an All Inclusive Vacation, so they don’t have to deal with the common yokels.
I love visiting Italy, but sometimes it can be a pain to deal with the bad service, the pickpockets, the endless bureaucracy when dealing with the police.
And, BTW, you may run into Dolce Vita.
That may ruin your whole trip.

#47 Ponzius Pilatus on 04.25.22 at 4:59 pm

#24 crowdedelevatorfartz on 04.25.22 at 3:27 pm
The tax hit getting out would be ugly.

I’m hanging in, adding to the RRSP and TFSA contribution room as a tax avoidance strategy….. and loading up on cash outside the portfolio.

Vultures may circle for a while yet before feasting on the economic carrion rotting in the sun….
—————-
Haha,
CEF is quite the poet.
The Edgar Poe of the steerage.

#48 Søren Angst on 04.25.22 at 5:01 pm

#43 Sail Away

Yup, on Buffett…you gotta hand it to ’em. The old bird knows in spades what he’s doing.

Dump TWTR on I dunno yet, $54? A bit less?

Not a single stock guy. I like ETF/ETN safety in numbers & diversified risk.

Though I had faith this AM in Elon before it became official later today. At least I got that part right.

Elon rocks.

Still love his pre-purchase Twitter admonition…

Go Woke. Go Broke.

#49 Arcticfox on 04.25.22 at 5:17 pm

Have to agree..we are at the stage where CB’s will buy equities if need be ala Japan. Sitting in cash might be risky? Maybe it is different this time ! Raising rates while expanding balance sheet..We will have front row seats to Gromen’s “They are going to try and ride two different horses with one ass”!

#50 NOSTRADAMUS on 04.25.22 at 5:18 pm

1990’s REAL ESTATE FLASH BACK.
I remember, Friday night down at the pub. It was a loud happy place to be. You couldn’t help but over hear all the jolly fellows discussing the performance of their Real Estate investments. It used to drive me crazy, they had all fallen into the easy ” unearned” income trap. What’s wrong with earning an honest living, you lazy sods. Thank God for the Real Estate bust in the early 1990’s when they lost a lot of phantom money. Finally they stopped talking about their Real Estate investments. New point. Where does my strange, almost unique outlook on the world come from? Was it my lower middle class upbringing where everyone earned their money? MMMM, That’s probably got something to do with it. Hold on someone at the door.

#51 Reality Check on 04.25.22 at 5:25 pm

42 Steven
Z(elenski) man IS a “cult hero” as he is doing the Right thing like any norma human being would do is to SURVIVE. How does that make him a hero? EVERY PERSON, ANIMAL, INSECT on this planet is trying to SURVIVE. That makes him a hero?
——————
Zelenski could have run to another European country to safely govern in absentia. Instead he chose to lead and stay and fight under the extremely real possibility he would be killed.

I wonder which of our Canadian leaders would stay and fight in a city under 24/7 attack versus hightailing it to a friendly country.

#52 Dear Santa Claus on 04.25.22 at 5:25 pm

As a young Gen Z’er all I want for Christmas is for the Toronto real estate bubble to crash hard, and get shelter prices affordable once again!

Make home prices low again!

#53 Tripp on 04.25.22 at 5:30 pm

Twitter became interesting again:

1. Some people are worried that by reconsidering censorship, the platform will lose its objectivity and will not be aligned with the freedom of speech principles.

2. Many will quit using it, probably the same people that came to Canada after the 2016 election.

3. A great number of people have found way better ways to spend $44B and are providing unsolicited advice on the matter. It’s so easy to be creative with someone else’s money.

4. Some journalists working for media owned by multibillionaires are revolted that other media could be acquired by other multibillionaires.

Interesting times indeed.

#54 WTF on 04.25.22 at 5:31 pm

Ho Hum on the market dip, but OMG Adele touring again…..Oh the humanity

Can u folks regurgitating lyrics from like 1972 just include a youtube link. Helps the young uns understand what Grandpa listened to while on acid

#55 tbone on 04.25.22 at 5:32 pm

# 19 Earth

One of the best recorded pieces of music also .

#56 dosouth on 04.25.22 at 5:36 pm

Greed continues to show no bounds in this past year or more. Lumber that fluctuated wildly and was a massive greed profit product created by panic buying. Gas that has gone up and down, mostly up. Some of greed part is putting up the price within seconds of the announcement where the fuel in the ground tanks was bought at a much lower price.

Construction materials, food stuffs, higher wages for less work, i.e. – doctor’s wanting control of the system that pays them so they can decide what they are worth (much more by the way) and hiring media circus managers to massage their message.

A correction cannot come soon enough…..

I look foward to a reset

#57 Reality is stark on 04.25.22 at 5:40 pm

The drunken sailors, T2, Freeland and Singh.
Led by incompetent fools who can’t stop spending other people’s money frivolously.
How can anyone in their right mind vote for Jokers like these?
They are aiming to bankrupt the nation to complete their legacies.
Why is this such a source of pride for them?
Giving the control of the country to the bond vigilantes is pure stupidity. What are these idiots thinking?
Start controlling government spending.

#58 Søren Angst on 04.25.22 at 5:57 pm

#46 Ponzius Pilatus

Austria is fine. They’re very polite and don’t nude sunbathe on our beaches which is a bonus, unlike the Nordics that come here, I swear, naked if they could. Vienna very nice city to pass time in with lots to see even for their very limited period of greatness compared to Italia (Rome just celebrated its 2775th last week).

Austrian cuisine, other than Wiener schnitzel (and that’s ridiculously over priced there) is like that in Germany…hideous. Greasy sausage eaters.

What is it you did in Italia?

7 years here and never had a cop or pick pocket event. I’ve travelled all 20 Regions many, many times.

Where do you go, was it you do? I want go, do that to for some excitement. Get my ticker pumping.

As for CH, a nation of shady greedy bankers is all they are and they have a hideous cuisine to. Soulless for the most part. But, it’s really, really, clean there and as you say, expensive. And that’s it.

Give me Il Bel Paese, for all her vagaries, she remains the land of

La Dolce Vita

and

Il Bel Far Niente.

And what’s up with the N. Americans culture, customs issues. FFS all they ever buy or aspire to buy for their homes, cars, food in the fridge, furniture or clothing, etc. has this tag on it:

Made in Italy. And they go “ga, ga”.

Ya, I know. They expect to see an Olive Garden commercial in Italia for real. It does happen, in the countryside at my relatives farms and in the cities, hidden from view.

They trample our country, swim in our millennia old fountains, hijack gondolas and we have to go rescue them as they are rowing in circles in the Adriatic, the list goes on, at least let us eat in peace…away from prying N. American eyes.

And as for me, you would be lucky to encounter me. I can show you my Italia like nobody you know. Places that are glorious and unknown to the Don’t Know Dung from Clay crowd on TripAdvisor.

#59 Ed on 04.25.22 at 6:26 pm

I’ve been around for a bit…I don’t think the Fed has engineered a soft landing ever.

#60 Two-thirds on 04.25.22 at 6:29 pm

“You cannot be so clear-eyed about Canadian real estate while giving a false impression about stocks. The ONLY difference is the leverage.

False. RE prices ride on cheap money and 100% emotion. Equity markets are fueled by corporate earnings. – Garth”

So, any chance that corporate earnings have gone up because of the cheap money?

Or is it only consumers that borrowed hand over fist when credit was dirt cheap?

True, often companies borrow to expand production or increase productivity, which is great for their bottom line, especially in a low-rate environment. Once the cost of credit goes up and consumers are squeezed accordingly, how likely is for earnings to hold?

It seems fair to admit that corporate earnings are, whether directly or indirectly (or both) also lifted by access to cheap credit.

The big question is: what happens to earnings when the punch bowl is taken away? Will they stay the same?

If rates rise to the point of inducing a recession, will earnings hold with squeezed consumers???

Inquiring minds wish to know.

#61 Sail Away on 04.25.22 at 6:33 pm

I hear Austrians are culturally similar to Germans, just not quite as humor-ous.

#62 pPrasseur on 04.25.22 at 6:35 pm

Doomers are back if force!

Never been one myself but even I have to admit a lot of bad stuff is brewing right now. Some sort of reckoning is happening.

Way too much debt printed to preserve the Sacro-saint welfare state, everywhere you look, no way this get resolved happily!

The responsible thing to do would be to protect the poor (nations AND individuals) by crushing inflation with high rates, but how does this not create a debt crisis, especially here in Canada, one of the most indebted countries on earth after Greece, France and Japan?

Problem is, today’s politicians are anything but responsible, have not been for years. This is not looking good.

Nothing wrong with selling some of your wins if you need money to spend…

#63 Lt. Commander Data on 04.25.22 at 6:37 pm

DELETED

#64 Sam on 04.25.22 at 6:41 pm

Woah that chart line goes right up in 2010 when endless money printing started!

#65 MD on 04.25.22 at 6:43 pm

Trillions of dollars pumped in the market by central banks will come due for refinancing at higher rates I hope the market has calculated this too in their valuations.

#66 Sam on 04.25.22 at 6:46 pm

Hey Garth. In the chart, Each time post 2000 whenever the market started to crash the printing press came to the rescue. Does that mean each dip was rescued by money printing and without it would’ve been a major 80% crash? Without the printing press intervention wouldn’t your narrative be very very different?

Lowering interest rates is not ‘printing money’. Myth. – Garth

#67 XEQT and chill on 04.25.22 at 6:51 pm

I agree, Garth.

We must not lose focus of what is really important right now: The defamation case Johnny Depp is leveling against Amber Heard.

#68 I don’t know on 04.25.22 at 6:55 pm

The most insightful part of today’s fantastic post is the last few lines.

Doomers, bears etc..

Everyone “feels” they can predict the future and time the market with their crystal ball.

They are smarter. They read more social media and YouTube comments than everyone else and are more “educated”.

“The crash is coming” is what they all say. They are quiet during a 200% market run up, then come out of the mud when the market goes down 20% – then quiet again when the market advances another 200%. It’s always the same pattern.

Hyperinflation, USD reserve status, recession, depression…it’s all emotional garbage..and always put out for consumption on social media by people taking advantage of this type of person.

The cold hard reality is these people need to be professional (and probably psychologically) managed by an advisor -the same people they usually shun. Or just be in GIC’s losing money every month (but calm).

Regarding real estate, as our host mentioned, if you locked in at rock bottom rates for five years..just enjoy life, your home and ignore any price fluctuations. Only renters (the uneducated ones not posting here of course) who missed the boat, and short term speculators need to pay any attention. What is weird is many seem to erroneously believe rising rates will make real estate more affordable.

It won’t.

IDK

#69 NoName on 04.25.22 at 7:14 pm

#46 Ponzius Pilatus on 04.25.22 at 4:51 pm

Oh please north american superiority complex…

As for all inclusive I can’t comment on that we used it only in mickey mouse world, mainly because of convenience, cuts down on wait ing for table.

Also, all inclusive reminds me of komunist vacations i was taken as a kid, we were taken to resort assigned to us by block or company comesar and given coupons for meals.

Now i wonder what income scale prefers all inclusive.

#70 pPrasseur on 04.25.22 at 7:16 pm

Lowering interest rates is not ‘printing money’. Myth. – Garth

Interesting topic, I think defining what printing money really means is difficult and often controversial.

QE is printing no doubt, as is directly buying government debt. But I think printing can be much more insidious. For example when governments intervene is otherwise free markets to facilitate credit is order to stimulate the economy or whatever, this IMO can be seen as money printing as well.

Think of CMHC and the socializing of RE credit… This is why I consider the Canadian RE market to be in good part a money printing scam.

And this is also why Canada is bound to paid so dearly!

#71 VladTor on 04.25.22 at 7:19 pm

Lowering interest rates is not ‘printing money’. Myth. – Garth

*************

Right, BUT….

Since 2008 we had both and that’s why we are now in deep … (how to say in polite manner? Help me please!) in deep…. deep… OK. Well, do you understand me? Sapienti sat!

#72 AK on 04.25.22 at 7:20 pm

“So is it reasonable for Tom to liquidate existing positions”
====================================

That’s what happens when one watches too much BNN.

They have genius that appears few times a week calling for a $50.00 Oil. :-)

#73 Linda on 04.25.22 at 7:22 pm

I can just see ‘Mr Patch’ taking a sip from the goblet on the table. Very regal:)

If Putin lived the usual lifestyle of the Russian male he’d likely have died by now. However, unlike the majority of his countrymen he apparently follows a healthy lifestyle. So don’t count on his heading to a caviar afterlife any time soon.

Tiff has indicated the BoC is open to another .50 rate hike. That is lower than some of the predictions made by others who are thinking .75 or even a full 1.0 jump is on the table. Guess Tiff wants to calm the herd before they stampede to the exits. Given today’s blog example of at least one investor planning to do just that I’d say there is a high likelihood of hamburger!

#74 Sam on 04.25.22 at 7:24 pm

Hey Garth. Me again. Sam. So are you saying in your reply to me that lowering interest rates is what caused the markets to keep increasing since 2010 and stop the numerous potential crashes from happening? I said it was money printing but you’re saying it’s 0% emergency LOE rates?

I said lowering rates is not printing money. – Garth

#75 Brian on 04.25.22 at 7:26 pm

Whether you agree or disagree withthe Otaawa Convoy.

FUREY FACTOR: Will inquiry tell the truth about the convoy?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_WMafcMiahY

#76 Jake on 04.25.22 at 7:29 pm

“Recessions are normal, healthy and one is long overdue”

Albeit short, but didn’t we just emerge from recession in 2020?

That was more like a lost weekend. – Garth

#77 Shawn on 04.25.22 at 7:39 pm

#70 pPrasseur on 04.25.22 at 7:16 pm

Lowering interest rates is not ‘printing money’. Myth. – Garth

Interesting topic, I think defining what printing money really means is difficult and often controversial.

**********************************
I agree with Garth. Most of what the central banks did was push interest rates down. It was the low borrowing costs that led to vastly more borrowing which does increase the money supply. And I agree that money printing is hard to define.

Many people comment here like they know exactly what money printing is. More likely they don’t even know what money is let alone how the money supply increases.

I found the more I looked into it the more I saw it was a complex matter.

A lot of things are that way. The less people know the more sure of their position they are.

#78 Digest the Rich on 04.25.22 at 8:03 pm

DELETED

#79 Beth on 04.25.22 at 8:15 pm

stop looking at your accounts. After all, do you appraise your house every day? – Garth
—————–
Excellent post, once again, thank you!

Love Love Love this analogy… it’s perfect

#80 Beth on 04.25.22 at 8:27 pm

#43 Sail Away on 04.25.22 at 4:42 pm
#38 Søren Angst on 04.25.22 at 4:21 pm
#27 Sail Away

Cleared 12% * in a 1.5 weeks with my man Elon.

——–

* ($51.70 – $44.48)/$44.48 = about 14%

I’m elated with my threadbare +5.66% today. Not as daring as you. On a day for day basis, I win. Total cash, you win.

I know:

oh yeah of little faith.

Going to sell before the magic $54.50 number and take my threadbare capital gain (and buy ETFs/ETNs).

——–

Good work. I sold 80% of my position just before the bell today but will hang onto the rest for the long term. Still green in after hours.

There’s lots of benefit to arbitrage. One of Buffett’s best strategies.
……………………………………….
Are you guys saying ‘get out of stocks while it is high?… and then return later. I looked it up but I am not really up to speed on Warren Buffet’s strategies…but I would like to know :)

#81 Sara on 04.25.22 at 8:41 pm

#47 Ponzius Pilatus on 04.25.22 at 4:59 pm
#24 crowdedelevatorfartz on 04.25.22 at 3:27 pm
The tax hit getting out would be ugly.

I’m hanging in, adding to the RRSP and TFSA contribution room as a tax avoidance strategy….. and loading up on cash outside the portfolio.

Vultures may circle for a while yet before feasting on the economic carrion rotting in the sun….
============
I am new at this, but have everything I have, every drop is in investments for the past 3 years. I rent, never owned, of course would like to own. I used to do GICs before this blog… now I wonder, am I suppose to be going into cash?? I hear it alot about that. I don’t have a spouse or partner, and my dad passed away last year and Mom does GICs – It would be nice to have someone clarify why cash is important now?

Are investments ok? Like Vanguard? I have another decade before I retire and cashed out a pension (cause I was afraid they would fold) any advice would be really appreciated. Thank you.

#82 Sara on 04.25.22 at 8:47 pm

#50 NOSTRADAMUS on 04.25.22 at 5:18 pm
1990’s REAL ESTATE FLASH BACK.
I remember, Friday night down at the pub. It was a loud happy place to be. You couldn’t help but over hear all the jolly fellows discussing the performance of their Real Estate investments. It used to drive me crazy, they had all fallen into the easy ” unearned” income trap. What’s wrong with earning an honest living, you lazy sods. Thank God for the Real Estate bust in the early 1990’s when they lost a lot of phantom money. Finally they stopped talking about their Real Estate investments. New point. Where does my strange, almost unique outlook on the world come from? Was it my lower middle class upbringing where everyone earned their money? MMMM, That’s probably got something to do with it. Hold on someone at the door.
================
Sounds like me, I am a good saver… but know nada about financial stuff…other than I got a reputable finance company to help me three years ago. I am happy but wonder if I need to know more?

#83 Shawn on 04.25.22 at 9:18 pm

BNN predictions?

#72 AK on 04.25.22 at 7:20 pm
“So is it reasonable for Tom to liquidate existing positions”
====================================

That’s what happens when one watches too much BNN.

They have genius that appears few times a week calling for a $50.00 Oil. :-)

****************************
Weird, I have it on often and never saw such a call recently at all.

I did see someone suggest on there that Oil won’t sustain at say $150 becasue every oil producer in the world is now looking at their formerly marginal production projects and saying okay at $100 plus this formerly marginal production is now highly profitable.

BNN had Eric Nuttal on there for a couple of years telling us about the extreme under-valuation in oil stocks. He was early but eventually spectacularly right. And I mean, spectacularly. And it was clear that whether he was right or wrong he was giving his honest opinion.

Dissing BNN guests seems pretty weak to me. Especially when it is from anonymous internet commenters.

I also never saw anyone on BNN advise total liquidation of a portfolio. Ever.

#84 crowdedelevatorfartz on 04.25.22 at 9:26 pm

@#78 Eat or Bitch
Deleted

+++

Trust me.
My gnarled, sun dried, wizened, smelly old Boomer carcass…..isnt worth the trouble.

#85 crowdedelevatorfartz on 04.25.22 at 9:29 pm

@#81 Sara
1st : no shame in renting. I rent.
2nd: your saving for retirement. Well done.
3rd: Recessions come and go. Keep investing.
4th: I’m maxed in my RRSP’s and TFSA’s plus other investments: I have a few bucks left over in cash.

You are way , way ahead of the average Canadian.
Sleep well.

#86 Brad on 04.25.22 at 9:33 pm

That’s a fine looking cat!

Isn’t it an economic indicator when cats start taking to drink? :)

#87 THE DANDADA on 04.25.22 at 9:49 pm

Money printer go BRRRRRRR!!!

https://asia.nikkei.com/Economy/Japan-readies-48bn-package-to-ease-inflation-pain

#88 Investx on 04.25.22 at 9:49 pm

At first I thought the title on the post, “Losing It”, was about the Left’s reaction to Elon Musk buying Twitter.

#89 Victor V on 04.25.22 at 10:10 pm

“Talked to two more homeowners this morning. Running out of options.”
– Scott Terrio, Manager, Consumer Insolvency

https://twitter.com/scottterriohma/status/1518632603506647040

#90 mark on 04.25.22 at 10:46 pm

I’ve seen these people do victory laps after selling to avoid a correction or crash, only to sit in cash as the market then recovers because “the really big one is coming”.

The really big one doesn’t arrive and the market gets back above where they sold. At this point they start panicking because not only are they behind where they would have been, they also feel stupid because their previous boasts about successful timing are hollow.

They never have the steel needed to get back in.

#91 Ronaldo on 04.25.22 at 10:50 pm

#83 Shawn

Have followed Eric Nutall for several years. If investors had invested in energy stocks as he did in March of 2020, they have made out like bandits. Myself included. This was the absolute best time to buy but most would have been selling. Eg: XEG 390%, BTE 2300%, ATH 2300%, MEG 1350%, ARC 460%, CVE 390%, CJ 1860% and many others. Copper stocks as well. Great returns.

It’s not a race. Stop being Alpha Male. – Garth

#92 Stone on 04.25.22 at 11:07 pm

Second, stop looking at your accounts.

———

Garth, I looooove looking at my accounts every day.

First, my B&D portfolio is relatively stable. Sure, it’s currently -4.32% ytd but as you indicated, it’s doing pretty good versus its peers. And over those 3 years you mentioned, mine has grown nearly 150%. Not to mention the dividends. So yay for that!

Second, looking at my B&D is a daily reminder of all the hard work I put in to retire early at the age of 44. Sometimes it was a tough slog but wow, so worth it and
I’m grateful.

Third, looking at it daily is a reminder to never, ever, ever take my B&D for granted and to treat it with respect. It was built on blood, sweat and tears. It would be tragic to lose that perspective.

I guess most people feel panicky when they look at their portfolio every day. Definitely not how I feel about it.

#93 Gains on 04.25.22 at 11:15 pm

DELETED

#94 That guy on 04.25.22 at 11:46 pm

I just can’t figure out how a little bit of market timing is such a bad thing. Find a source of funding i.e HELOC. If the market goes 10 % drop, put 10% of the HELOC balance into the market. If the market drops 20%, do 20% of the HELOC balance, and so on. As others become fearful, you get greedy.

#95 Sara on 04.26.22 at 12:00 am

#85 crowdedelevatorfartz on 04.25.22 at 9:29 pm
@#81 Sara
Sleep well.
=========
Ah, gee thank you, I have been losing sleep thinking I mussed up. I maxed the TFSA and RRSP and put all the dividends back in to the investment.

I appreciate hearing I can sleep well because I only know how to be good at saving, that is all I was taught, was to save and egoistically kinda pride myself on being a “non-hoarder”.

Thanks again Crowd de de levitator! (Rising above, giggle!)
_/\_

#96 Sail Away on 04.26.22 at 12:04 am

#80 Beth on 04.25.22 at 8:27 pm
#43 Sail Away on 04.25.22 at 4:42 pm
#38 Søren Angst on 04.25.22 at 4:21 pm
#27 Sail Away

Cleared 12% * in a 1.5 weeks with my man Elon.

———

* ($51.70 – $44.48)/$44.48 = about 14%

I’m elated with my threadbare +5.66% today. Not as daring as you. On a day for day basis, I win. Total cash, you win.

I know:

oh yeah of little faith.

Going to sell before the magic $54.50 number and take my threadbare capital gain (and buy ETFs/ETNs).

———

Good work. I sold 80% of my position just before the bell today but will hang onto the rest for the long term. Still green in after hours.

There’s lots of benefit to arbitrage. One of Buffett’s best strategies.

———

Are you guys saying ‘get out of stocks while it is high?… and then return later. I looked it up but I am not really up to speed on Warren Buffet’s strategies…but I would like to know :)

———

No. By no means are we saying that. Some of us carefully watch the markets everyday and sometimes jump in and out at very specific times. Don’t do this, or at least not yet.

Step #1: Take a lot of time to learn the about investing, then carefully put together a balanced and diversified portfolio of broad sector ETFs. Rebalance regularly but never sell merely because a holding is high or low.
.
.
.
Step #126 Arbitrage

#97 Satori on 04.26.22 at 12:33 am

SO with that graph there is a bridge, head and shoulders between 2000 and 2012…. is that what we have to look forward to?

Historically it looks like it took a TWELVE YEAR stretch to reach the same amount took approx 12 years!! All I can say is HOLY, is that where we are headed?!?!?! YIKES

#98 crowdedelevatorfartz on 04.26.22 at 12:55 am

@#88 Investex
“At first I thought the title on the post, “Losing It”, was about the Left’s reaction to Elon Musk buying Twitter.”

+++

Only after he lets Trump start spewing his vitriol again……

#99 No Left Turn on 04.26.22 at 12:59 am

#58 Søren Angst on 04.25.22 at 5:57 pm

Re: Schwiiz, Östereich und Deutschland.

Careful now.

You bite the hand that feeds you.

NR73. You may be breaking the law, but, that comes natural to the boot dwellers.

Italia, nice place to visit and that’s it.

#100 B on 04.26.22 at 12:59 am

I wish I hired an advisor sooner to take the emotion out of investing.

#101 The Awakened One on 04.26.22 at 2:30 am

Hmm.. every time Garth posts a kitty photo, the market does something funny! Every. Single. Time. Now, that’s a strategy to buy!

#102 T-Rev on 04.26.22 at 2:40 am

Bizarre world Gartho. The times are a changing. But no one knows in which direction the arc of history is bending right now.

The economy is actually cooking right now. But this whole thing (and by whole thing I mean busted supply chains, back-ordered everything, rising prices, and labor crunch) seems so….artificial. I think it’s all terribly out of balance if you want to know the truth, and that’s a scary proposition. I could see everything from YOLO roaring 20s to a deep and profound recession. I could see interest rates hitting a peak after another 100-150 basis points, inflation leveling quickly, and the fed having to backtrack, drop rates, and buy their own bonds again by mid 2023, and I could see rates going to 10% without having significant impact on inflation but killing the economy while prices continue to spiral up. That last one is my biggest fear- bad stagflation, with a shrinking economy and high inflation. People out of jobs and eggs at $7/dozen. And our Leader Bros (TM) throwing money at social justice causes and smiling smuggly while the nation burns.

Anywho- I’m probably overthinking. Everyone I know is employed and overworked. Getting 3-5% raises this year. Getting offers from recruiters daily. Interest rates are still low by historical standards. And I truly think that they’ll stop going up sooner than most are predicting. I think this inflation surge will be very transient, BUT if supply chains don’t correct and workers don’t go back to work I could be very wrong. I guess my thoughts are that the money supply component of this inflation surge will be short lived. The excess liquidity from two years of government largesse and QE will respond very respond very very rapidly to rising rates. However the supply side component of the inflation will not, and it make take years to fix. In fact, rising rates will inhibit investment in production and logistics that could help alleviate the issues, prolonging the problem.

#103 Fortune500 on 04.26.22 at 7:23 am

I actually know plenty of people who check the value of their homes regularly … sadly.

#104 crowdedelevatorfartz on 04.26.22 at 8:32 am

@#97 Satori
“Historically it looks like it took a TWELVE YEAR stretch to reach the same amount took approx 12 years!! All I can say is HOLY, is that where we are headed?!?!?! YIKES”

+++

Google.
Japan.
Deflation.
They’ve had a 30 year slump.

#105 Steven Rowlandson on 04.26.22 at 8:41 am

Price drops could be oppertunities to average down and acquire more assets. Then again the assets would have to be worth the risk and one needs to have the will to wait to buy low when everyone else is losing it.
It worked for Rothschild before the out come of the battle of Waterloo was known to the public.

#106 rampant inflation on 04.26.22 at 9:17 am

the CPI SCAM continues.

shelter portion of US CPI was under 5% last month

home prices jumped nearly 20% in February

CPI is a S C A M and a flat out LIE. nowhere NEAR the actual COST of LIVING.

brought to you by the crooks in government and the central banks.

#107 rampant inflation on 04.26.22 at 9:32 am

this market is exactly at the same point as late 2000 and late 2007. it’s peaked and rolling over. you will see the SP500 get back to the March 2020 covid lows before the end of next year. that’s 2500 or 42% lower than today.. there is no avoiding it now… once this market breaks below the lows of early March this year, it’s all over.

Silly comment with GDP romping, corporate profits solid and full employment. Are you forecasting an asteroid strike? – Garth

#108 Bill on 04.26.22 at 9:32 am

It’s not a race. Stop being Alpha Male. – Garth

Nothing’s a race —- if you can’t run.

If you can run, sprint. Gets you there faster.

I hasn’t been that hard to find the returns, and buy more when things fall, and sell things when they get overpriced. It’s kind of like a young version of ‘re-balancing’. I think your overall strategy can use more alpha male personally. It’s been a great time to use the strategy as mentioned by the poster. Oil has been especially simple. The world said renewables — pshaw. Just the opposite. I also grabbed Air Canada…soon as the pandemic restrictions lift. It’ll double. It’s really not that hard. AC should be through the moon today. Give the cowboys some credit when it’s due. Home runs don’t happen on every pitch – but when they do, you get to run around the track while everyone claps – or are silent with envy.

#109 Sail Away on 04.26.22 at 9:58 am

Man, all these folks vowing to move to Canada now that the Great and Powerful Elon has ascended. Immediate White House press briefing about revoking Section 230.

Tesla hats everywhere! Go E!

#110 OK, Doomer on 04.26.22 at 10:15 am

Probably the best take on Elon Musk’s purchase of Twitter so far. If you want to change the world, it has to look at itself first.
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

Andrew Lawrence
@andrewlawrence
·
7h
Elon Musk could have put that $44billion towards tackling world poverty, instead he’s used it to send millions of woke Liberal narcissists into a spiral of depression, and honestly I think it’s money well spent.

#111 Ponzius Pilatus on 04.26.22 at 10:21 am

147 bdwy on 04.25.22 at 2:11 pm
I think it would be appropriate that the foreign affairs portfolio should also be under her tutelage.
——————
so now experience and education do matter?

then it’s appropriate she is not the finance minister?

a lightweight head bobbing @ss kisser is all i can see here.
——————
In Politics, soft skills and instinct is more important than xperience.

#112 Quintilian on 04.26.22 at 10:29 am

#102 T-Rev on 04.26.22 at 2:40 am
“The excess liquidity from two years of government largesse and QE will respond very respond very very rapidly to rising rates. However the supply side component of the inflation will not, and it make take years to fix. In fact, rising rates will inhibit investment in production and logistics that could help alleviate the issues, prolonging the problem.”

It may will be that, not by design, but by chance, that these circumstances may result in a “ forced” normalization of interest rates.

The Political manipulators have shackled the Central Bankers, and have kept them on a short leash for a long time, but inflation may finally allow them a face saving way out of the Central Banker’s gross neglect.

#113 Sara on 04.26.22 at 10:38 am

#81, 82, 95 Sara

Hi Sara. I am also Sara. :) Seems you are on the good side of CEF so far. Watch out though. When not flatulating, he bites.

#114 Sail Away on 04.26.22 at 10:39 am

There is a 7% arbitrage benefit with Twitter right now. Timing unknown, but fairly certain of success.

I’m playin’. Just sayin’

#115 Shawn on 04.26.22 at 10:56 am

Rampant Inflation or Rampant Conspiracy Seeker

#106 rampant inflation on 04.26.22 at 9:17 am
the CPI SCAM continues.

shelter portion of US CPI was under 5% last month

home prices jumped nearly 20% in February

CPI is a S C A M and a flat out LIE. nowhere NEAR the actual COST of LIVING.

brought to you by the crooks in government and the central banks.

********************************
So housing costs that are up under 5% is still a big increase.

Consider how many people own their homes or did not face a mortgage rate increase. You do know that Americans can lock in interest rates for 30 years AND refinance down to lower rates for a small fee. 90% of U.S. homeowners are likely locked into low interest rates.

What percent of American households do you think bought a house and faced that 20% increase?

Central bankers may have made big policy mistakes. That remains to be seen as they are also credited with rescuing the economy after the financial crisis and COVID panics. But to suggest they are crooks is to position yourself on the lunatic fringe.

Similarly only the lunatic fringe believes that most in government are crooks. Are you a card-carrying member of the lunatic fringe?

#116 Sail Away on 04.26.22 at 11:06 am

#113 Sara on 04.26.22 at 10:38 am
#81, 82, 95 Sara

Hi Sara. I am also Sara. :) Seems you are on the good side of CEF so far. Watch out though. When not flatulating, he bites.

——–

Yeah, but you’re Evil Sara. Nice Sara will get along with everyone just fine.

#117 Shawn on 04.26.22 at 11:07 am

The mechanics of buying ETFs and Stocks on the exchange.

A key feature of “The” stock exchange is that as you place an order you can see the highest existing buy order. This is the bid price. And the lowest existing selling price. This is the offer price. You will also see the number of “board lots” available to buy from or sell to at each of those prices. Usually an 8 for example means 8 hundred shares.

As far as I know TD Direct shows me this information as a “real time” quote when I press the Sell or Buy button.

BUT a Strange thing.

I constantly seem to be able to buy at a slightly better (lower) price than the lowest offer or sell at a slightly higher price than the indicated bid price.

This benefits me. But what is going on? Is it because they route my order to somewhere other than the Toronto Stock Exchange which has a better price that is not shown in their main quote?

I don’t think this has to do with having access to real time quotes or depth of the market which I don’t bother with. As far as I know the TD quotes are real time when I am placing an order.

Any of you know the answer?

Maybe a topic for the suspender snappers since the mechanics of trading even for ETFs can be important. Even the fact that we all face bid/ask spreads is seldom discussed. (Your trading cost is likely higher than that $10 or $7 fee.)

#118 Shirl Clarts on 04.26.22 at 11:20 am

#84 crowdedelevatorfartz on 04.25.22 at 9:26 pm

@#78 Eat or Bitch
Deleted

+++

Trust me.
My gnarled, sun dried, wizened, smelly old Boomer carcass…..isnt worth the trouble.

^^^^

There are things you can do about smell… diet, bath.

#119 Ponzius Pilatus on 04.26.22 at 11:20 am

#113 Sara on 04.26.22 at 10:38 am
#81, 82, 95 Sara

Hi Sara. I am also Sara. :) Seems you are on the good side of CEF so far. Watch out though. When not flatulating, he bites.
———————-
Narcissists perceive every comments as positive.
Because it tells them that they are being recognized as the geniuses they think they are.

#120 IHCTD9 on 04.26.22 at 11:44 am

#111 Ponzius Pilatus on 04.26.22 at 10:21 am
147 bdwy on 04.25.22 at 2:11 pm
I think it would be appropriate that the foreign affairs portfolio should also be under her tutelage.
——————
so now experience and education do matter?

then it’s appropriate she is not the finance minister?

a lightweight head bobbing @ss kisser is all i can see here.
——————
In Politics, soft skills and instinct is more important than xperience.
___

She hasn’t got those either.

She has her job because Bill’s head didn’t always bobble in the correct plane. CF’s head always bobbles just the way Trudeau likes it. If it didn’t she’d be just as unemployed as Bill, Jodi, Jane, Celina, Leona, and numerous other Liberal MP’s Trudeau has booted to the curb in his bid for unchallenged totalitarian power.

That’s what happens when you elect a passive aggressive frat-boi jock elite who has never heard the word no. Trudeau has no personal historical precedent to understand the concept of disagreement. He’s always got whatever he wanted – no matter what that might have been…

#121 bdwy on 04.26.22 at 12:13 pm

sail man-twtr back to 50 has got me scratching my head. elon’s cash sounds good to me.

is the delta solely based on a risk of the deal not completing?

————

and some of us do watch daily. some of us quit our engineering jobs to do so. others apparently didn’t…not sure how you find time for both!

any uvic civil co-op spots at your shop? I’ve got a triple threat kid entering year2 there and she will need to do co-op 4month terms over the next few years.

#122 Wait There on 04.26.22 at 12:54 pm

What IF?

What will happen IF Russia actually takes the most prosperous parts of Ukraine and leaves the Western half to the EU? How the heck will Ukraine pay off their debt? Will the west have to forgive the money? Does someone not think that somehow a ton of weapons will not leak into the black market. Ukraine has always been a country with lots of corruption “deals”. Think this will end or has suddenly ended?

You just know Russia will not “lose” in this war. That is the reality. It will have to be a negotiated peace of some type and THAT should have happened BEFORE the Russians moved in. THAT would have been the reasonable thing. The Monroe doctrine can work in two directions. Keep that in mind.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Monroe_Doctrine

#123 Quintilian on 04.26.22 at 12:58 pm

#120 IHCTD9 on 04.26.22 at 11:44 am
“She hasn’t got those either.”

Yes, she does.

IHCTD9, don’t be a bitter Crowdie.

Remember how she mopped the floor with Trump’s goons at the negotiations.

The Gentle Kierkegaard said that:

“Life can only be understood backwards; but it must be lived forwards.”

The woman has full understanding of history, please don’t disparage that knowledge.

#124 Damifino on 04.26.22 at 1:14 pm

#120 IHCTD9

That’s what happens when you elect a passive aggressive frat-boi jock elite who has never heard the word no. Trudeau has no personal historical precedent to understand the concept of disagreement. He’s always got whatever he wanted – no matter what that might have been…
——————————————

I couldn’t agree more. And yet, he is the duly elected PM/King of this country and thus represents what Canadian voters desire over all other alternatives.

In quieter moments, I reluctantly come to terms with my utter powerlessness to alter that situation and instead turn my attention to mitigation strategies.

One day he will go away and might possibly be replaced an actual adult regardless of political persuasion. In the meantime, I’ll hunker down and wait in my balanced and diversified fortress.

#125 Mattl on 04.26.22 at 1:34 pm

this market is exactly at the same point as late 2000 and late 2007. it’s peaked and rolling over. you will see the SP500 get back to the March 2020 covid lows before the end of next year. that’s 2500 or 42% lower than today.. there is no avoiding it now… once this market breaks below the lows of early March this year, it’s all over.

Silly comment with GDP romping, corporate profits solid and full employment. Are you forecasting an asteroid strike? – Garth

————————————————————–

US GDP doesn’t appear to be romping, forecasts are for 1.5% in Q1, hardly romping when you consider a full reopening. I’d say slowing would be more apt.

We live in Canada. “Statistics Canada said its initial estimate suggests the real gross domestic product grew 0.8 per cent in February, saying that many of the sectors down in January, rebounded a month later.” Romping. – Garth

#126 Michael in-north-york on 04.26.22 at 1:46 pm

#122 Wait There on 04.26.22 at 12:54 pm
===

No negotiated settlement was possible before Russia attacked Ukraine, because Russia was not interested in any settlement. A settlement will be possible after Russia realizes it cannot conquer Ukraine. Hopefully that realization will come soon.

Doctrines change as time passes. The Treaty of Tordesillas (1994) “divided” the Western hemisphere between Spain and Portugal. Noone cares to observe it today.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Treaty_of_Tordesillas

The Monroe doctrine was proclaimed by the U.S., but for much of the 19-th century, it was effective because the British Empire with its superior Navy was implicitly onboard. U.S. didn’t have a sufficient naval power on their own to block any potential European incursion.

#127 crowdedelevatorfartz on 04.26.22 at 1:59 pm

@#123 Quinty ‘s Quotes

Planet Erf to Quinty.
How did we get from our non finance Finance Minister not having the qualifications to work for HR Block during tax time ( let alone creating a 580 BILLION dollar deficit) to ….quoting philosophical drivel ?

#128 espressobob on 04.26.22 at 2:14 pm

Emotions are powerful and from time to time makes for bad decisions.

Patience has to be one of the toughest mindsets that’s acquired from experience over the years. Doesn’t come easy.

Look over the horizon. Makes for a better investing.

#129 Mattl on 04.26.22 at 2:28 pm

#125 Mattl on 04.26.22 at 1:34 pm
this market is exactly at the same point as late 2000 and late 2007. it’s peaked and rolling over. you will see the SP500 get back to the March 2020 covid lows before the end of next year. that’s 2500 or 42% lower than today.. there is no avoiding it now… once this market breaks below the lows of early March this year, it’s all over.

Silly comment with GDP romping, corporate profits solid and full employment. Are you forecasting an asteroid strike? – Garth

————————————————————–

US GDP doesn’t appear to be romping, forecasts are for 1.5% in Q1, hardly romping when you consider a full reopening. I’d say slowing would be more apt.

We live in Canada. “Statistics Canada said its initial estimate suggests the real gross domestic product grew 0.8 per cent in February, saying that many of the sectors down in January, rebounded a month later.” Romping. – Garth

————————————————-

We do, but the post references the SP500, which is still a US index, and we talk US economics here every day. And our economy is closely correlated to the US, as you know.

We will see if your roaring 20’s prediction comes true.

Not my prediction. But it will once we smoke Putin. – Garth

#130 IHCTD9 on 04.26.22 at 2:45 pm

#123 Quintilian on 04.26.22 at 12:58 pm
#120 IHCTD9 on 04.26.22 at 11:44 am
“She hasn’t got those either.”

Yes, she does.

IHCTD9, don’t be a bitter Crowdie.

Remember how she mopped the floor with Trump’s goons at the negotiations.

The Gentle Kierkegaard said that:

“Life can only be understood backwards; but it must be lived forwards.”

The woman has full understanding of history, please don’t disparage that knowledge.
___

Lefty’s all tell me mopping the floor with Trump’s Goons is a super easy thing to do though? She cried to get a deal in the EU.

Her knowledge of (Russian) History and Slavic language is about as helpful to her as FM, as my knowledge of obsolete track layer final drive parts would be. Roughly Zip.

She has the job because she does not oppose Trudeau like those (now missing) MP’s who did. She smiles and bobbles, therefore she remains employed as minister of whatever.

If she ever becomes PM herself, she will be the worst PM in Canadian history having “learned” the ropes exclusively from Trudeau. Not to mention she can’t say or do a thing in opposition to Trudeau (even if she is right) without getting fired out the door (Like JWR, et al.). So she doesn’t. Not a single thing. She’s probably the least assertive Western politician who has ever lived.

Some Liberal MP’s such as Joel Lightbound actually swing a pair and will openly rebuke Trudeau knowing they could be next in an ever lengthening procession of cancelled Federal Liberal Politicians. Freeland ain’t one. She knows how her bread gets buttered. She knows without Trudeau, she’d be teaching a Ukrainian language night course at a local College. She’s utterly unqualified for her current and previous positions in government.

#131 Sail Away on 04.26.22 at 4:27 pm

#121 bdwy on 04.26.22 at 12:13 pm

sail man-twtr back to 50 has got me scratching my head. elon’s cash sounds good to me.

is the delta solely based on a risk of the deal not completing?

________

and some of us do watch daily. some of us quit our engineering jobs to do so. others apparently didn’t…not sure how you find time for both!

any uvic civil co-op spots at your shop? I’ve got a triple threat kid entering year2 there and she will need to do co-op 4month terms over the next few years.

———

Have her send a resume when ready.

Regarding Twitter, it’s now a 9% benefit. Lots of people probably took profit and there will be many more who may not really understand the process. Other than that, its price seems to be following the general market trend. I’m buying.

#132 Grunt on 04.26.22 at 8:36 pm

Toronto Metropolitan University. Hmm gonna be more expensive signage there. Kids probably call it ‘The Met?’ No statues need apply. Talking of statues anothers gone bit further up the road at Alexandra. Smashed and thrown away. Apparently.

#133 EvilSara on 04.26.22 at 9:19 pm

#116 Sail Away on 04.26.22 at 11:06 am
#113 Sara on 04.26.22 at 10:38 am
#81, 82, 95 Sara

Hi Sara. I am also Sara. :) Seems you are on the good side of CEF so far. Watch out though. When not flatulating, he bites.

——–

Yeah, but you’re Evil Sara. Nice Sara will get along with everyone just fine.

————–

Evil Sara is more fun. You know it.

#134 Sail Away on 04.27.22 at 9:44 am

#133 EvilSara on 04.26.22 at 9:19 pm
#116 Sail Away on 04.26.22 at 11:06 am
#113 Sara on 04.26.22 at 10:38 am
#81, 82, 95 Sara

Hi Sara. I am also Sara. :) Seems you are on the good side of CEF so far. Watch out though. When not flatulating, he bites.

———-

Yeah, but you’re Evil Sara. Nice Sara will get along with everyone just fine.

———-

Evil Sara is more fun. You know it.

———-

Why is Santa so jolly?

He knows where all the bad girls live.