The checklist

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DOUG  By Guest Blogger Doug Rowat
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Being a portfolio manager involves creating constant checklists.

When formulating a market forecast, for example, a portfolio manager might work through a list that includes earnings outlook, valuations, central bank policy, economic data and so on. And similarly, when a major world event occurs, portfolio managers also make checklists to assess market risk. I did this with every major event from the 2008 financial crisis to the 2020 global pandemic.

The checklists are never quite the same for each event, of course, but they usually order a series of scenarios in terms of their potential severity with an assessment their likelihood. The biggest event at the moment, naturally, is the Russia invasion of Ukraine.

So allow yourself for a moment to step inside a portfolio manager’s mind. My present ‘Russia checklist’ and risk assessment of each scenario is as follows:

  • WWIII? Probably not. Sad that this scenario has to be contemplated at all, but such is the reality of a war involving the world’s largest nuclear military power. First off, if it were solely Putin’s objective to annihilate the West and live the rest of his life in a luxury bunker—perhaps complete with a hockey rink, which I gather is something that his lavish palaces currently include—then we’d already all be vaporized and Putin would be skating laps. So far, his objective remains only Ukraine, or at least parts of it. This is not to say that the risk of the conflict escalating isn’t significant, but full-scale war with the US can be ruled out for now. The US and Russia also have a nearly 75-year history of harshly criticizing and threatening each other without coming into direct conflict. The US itself has undertaken two full-scale invasions of Iraq, and while these wars were condemned by Russia, Russia still didn’t directly interfere militarily. We have to hope that this pattern continues. And, for the moment, I argue it will.

 

  • A banking or financial crisis? Unlikely. The market has digested the Russian sanctions and examined loan exposure and concluded that, with the exception of some Italian and French banks, the world banking system generally has limited exposure to Russia. To put the risk into perspective in a somewhat unrelated way, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, two of the many players involved in the great financial crisis, alone guaranteed a whopping US$5.4 trillion of mortgage debt back in 2008. Their exposure, of course, set the housing and banking crisis in motion. But, as a point of comparison, the entirety of Russia’s GDP is only US$1.5 trillion. The S&P 500 Financials Index is roughly flat since the war started reflecting the limited present concern for the global banking system. Russia is a commodity, not a banking, superpower, so I also argue that a financial crisis is unlikely.

 

  • A decline in corporate profitability? Not so far. Remarkably, analysts have actually modestly boosted earnings estimates since the war started. Naturally, much of these increases are directed towards resource-based companies, but nevertheless, earnings expectations overall are higher—an unexpected outcome. The recent major US economic data (non-farm payrolls, ISM manufacturing, etc.) has also been positive, indicating that the US economy has been undented by the war in Ukraine. The US is also largely an energy independent country, which will further limit the negative impact of the war. The below chart reflects the current expectations for US earnings growth. After more than seven weeks of bloody conflict and unprecedented economic sanctions, analysts still have confidence in US corporate profitability. This doesn’t mean that they’ll be right, but it’s nevertheless another piece of positive evidence supporting a continuation of the bull market:

S&P 500 annual earnings growth expectations (%)

Source: Zacks Investment Research; consensus expectations

 

  • A major shift in global trade? A likely outcome. Many analysts are already discussing how the world will shift from ‘globalization’ to ‘onshoring’ with respect to commerce, commodity sourcing, manufacturing and so on. This represents a significant change in global trade policy and it remains to be seen what the long-term economic impact will be. Markets, so far, are taking this risk in stride. Both the S&P/TSX Composite and S&P 500, for instance, are positive since the war started. For the S&P/TSX Composite this is understandable given elevated commodity prices, but it’s interesting that the S&P 500, which is far less commodity focused, is also higher. Similar to corporate profits, investors are presently betting that global trade can adjust to a world without Russia. But how well more onshoring dovetails with a world awash in inflation remains to be seen.

So these are some, though certainly not all, of the risks facing investors with respect to the war. Rapidly pivoting trade policies, in my view, mark the greatest long-term risk, but for this year it looks like companies will still grow profits and markets will successfully scale the ‘wall of worry’.

But I’m not naïve. Putin can change my expectations in an instant.

Doug Rowat, FCSI® is Portfolio Manager with Turner Investments and Senior Investment Advisor, Private Client Group, Raymond James Ltd.

 

96 comments ↓

#1 Infrared on 04.16.22 at 9:56 am

the guy doesn’t deserve to even be on the top page…

#2 Flop… on 04.16.22 at 10:02 am

Hey Robax, I saw this visualization the other day and thought of your hairy legs.

https://www.greaterfool.ca/2020/06/13/save-the-last-dance/

“Objects of Desire: Record Breaking Auction Sales in 2021”

Apparently someone paid 1.5 million for a pair of Michael Jordan Nike Air Ships.

Dunno what makes this pair so special, when I googled them another sale I came across was for 70k, so mind the gap.

The only thing I can think of is Sotheby’s gave you a one day modelling contract and you took it to the next level.

1.5 million for a pair of Air Ship shoes, maybe when all this crazy money settles down, these shoes will return to earth like the Hindenburg…

M47BC

https://www.visualcapitalist.com/objects-of-desire-record-breaking-auction-sales-in-2021/

#3 Dharma Bum on 04.16.22 at 10:06 am

Putin and his overstuffed puffy jacket.

Y’know, I’ve noticed that Russians really like those puffy winter jackets. Especially the shiny silver and gold ones.

Check.

#4 LH on 04.16.22 at 10:20 am

Charlie Munger is a big proponent of the checklist approach. He learned well from his years at the US Air Force.

#5 Countries signing treaties with corporations on 04.16.22 at 10:36 am

https://westawake.substack.com/p/stephen-donnelly-chooses-who-over?s=r

There will be a global revolution we just have to get rid of the 90 years old geriatrics running the show..

#6 TurnerNation on 04.16.22 at 10:39 am

Still on the food supply topic. Look at the price of Corn and ag related ETFs. We are like farm animals in this global open air tax farm. Easily controlled and herded.

https://finviz.com/quote.ashx?t=CORN&p=m&tas=0

Man-made (government made) famine? From Zerohedge.com:

“In his latest attempt to ease the relentless pain at the pump, President Biden has pulled off something remarkable. He’s managed to infuriate climate activists and the oil and gas industry, all while jacking up demand for America’s most vital agricultural commodity: corn.
The president is set to announce Tuesday during a visit to an ethanol plant in a remote town in Iowa that the EPA will eliminate restrictions on high-ethanol-content gasoline to be sold during the summer months. The decision hasn’t yet been confirmed, but senior administration sources have leaked the news to WSJ and a handful of other media outlets.
The decision will allow gasoline with 15% ethanol to be sold between June 1 and Sept. 15.”


“China is in Hoarding Mode Right Now, And It’s Pushing Grain Prices to Historic Highs”
China made another large buy of U.S. corn to start the week, and market analysts say food security concerns are driving the country’s increased appetite for commodities. USDA confirmed a flash sale Monday that totaled 1.020 million metric tons of corn by China. 680,000 tons of the purchase are for old crop, with the remaining 340,000 for delivery in the 2022/2023 marketing year.

https://www.agweb.com/news/crops/corn/china-hoarding-mode-right-now-and-its-pushing-grain-prices-historic-highs

#7 crowdedelevatorfartz on 04.16.22 at 10:42 am

@#3 Dharma
“Putin and his overstuffed puffy jacket.”

+++
Puffy down jacket aside.
Apparently Putin was wearing a $50,000 watch and his clothes rang the bell at another 20k when he was rousing the crowd of cheering and flag waving Brown Shirts with patriotic promises of soon to be recaptured, fictional, Russian “glory”.
Although how that “glory” will be achieved when the entire planet is glowing like a Chernobyl sarcophagus after dark escapes me.

One wrong, misplaced ( or intentional ), missile with a few dead American soldiers as the result …..and we’ll all be in this….. to the bitter end.

+++++

Interesting list Doug.
We’re possibly in one of the most volatile moments in history in a long time.

Covid #6 in China may be a slow motion disaster movie.
Huge population with a very low vax rate and tens of millions of unvaccinated elderly waiting to overwhelm the medical system.
Apparently the 25 million people in the mega manufacturing and logistics center known as Shanghai aren’t lovin the lock down like their “dear Leader” demands.
Quarantine centers are full so people are being told they don’t have the virus…when they do.
People in the quarantine centers are texting that the food, water, medicine, etc is grossly inadequate.
If you think your “wudgets’ are taking forever to be shipped from China now…..give it a few more months.
We haven’t seen the lock down ramifications unfold in all their glory yet.
All while “Dear Leader” Xi expects to waltz into an unprecedented 3rd term as leader…. unopposed.
The last Dear Leader to do that was Chairman Mao ending his reign on his death bed.
Mao , who’s policies killed 10’s of millions of his people through starvation and insane ideological “cleansing” purges.
The CCP of that era knew that no man should have unlimited power forever so the rules were changed to a two term limit.
Until now.
Will Xi be able to easily take on an illegal third term in office if his country is burying millions of Covid dead?
Millions dead….
Mostly due to his failing policy of “total lockdown” instead of mass vaccination?
Or will he invade Taiwan to get the people’s minds off the latest Covid policy disaster and cheering on a jingoistic, populist, “little” war?

All while China’s economy teeters on the brink of real estate default. Evergrande comes to mind, in a domino of creaky multi billion dollar loans.

I noticed a huge $215 million development project owned by a Chinese company was quietly sold in Burnaby last week( absolutely nothing on the local 6pn “news” about this they’re busy reporting the latest apology from the Pope)….so they could make a loan payment back in the Glorious Motherland.
The first of many?

https://www.burnabynow.com/real-estate-news/huge-burnaby-condo-development-sold-by-troubled-china-aoyuan-for-215m-5269972

#8 Søren Angst on 04.16.22 at 10:46 am

Agree except for the “onshoring”. If that happens en masse, labour & OH will rise (relative to inexpensive Asia) and result in higher prices and more inflation.

The rest I think you nailed it.

——

You are SO correct about the Italian banks. The worst are Unicredit ($8.1bn) and Intesa Sanpaolo ($6.1bn), the #1 and #2 banks in Italia (Russian asset exposure).

Clear that when rumours and then the invasion of Ukraine happened, Intesa Sanpaolo’s share price tanked.

https://www.google.com/finance/quote/ISP:BIT?window=6M

Considering that their Russian operations account for only 1% of ISP’s business the price drop seems histrionic to me.

On the flip side, Italia’s Foreign Minister Luigi Di Mai said on Twitter a couple of weeks ago that Italia had seized, of Russian and Oligarch assets (boats, vineyards, homes, artwork, bank accounts, etc.), in the neighborhood of:

€900 Billion.

I do not think the Oligarch’s brought that kind of money to Italia in their travel suitcases.

Mind you and then again, you have YVR + casinos + duffle bags.

So, maybe they did? Doubt it. They would have used the Italian bank branches in Russia. So much easier (until now).

————–

As for me, glad this Summer when I go to Rimini * and the beach there will be no Cyrillic menus to parse.

* Russia’s Dacha Méditerranée.

Queue “La Mer” by age old French crooner Charles Trenet:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3E8NpkTRcVI

Also, “Caruso” by Pavarotti:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=I8A61eY1Efg

Yes…it’s getting much WARMER here in Italia and our thoughts turn to the beach. 21/6 today in Pordenone. 26/11 in Roma.

Eat your hearts out Great White/Soggy North. Baci d’Italia. 😘 😎

#9 B from Q on 04.16.22 at 10:49 am

So, pandemic is over?

#10 Andrewski on 04.16.22 at 10:56 am

Great analysis Doug. What’s the saying, keep calm and chive on.

#11 Possible Misdirection on 04.16.22 at 10:57 am

The biggest event at the moment, naturally, is the Russia invasion of Ukraine.
————————————————————-
Magicians call it misdirection. Where the audience attention is drawn to one event to prevent observation of another. In this case when we fail to observe is what is happening with the China Shanghai lockdown.
While nobody would dismiss the damaging economic consequences of the Ukraine invasion one must clearly understand the devastating effects of the shut down in Shanghai. Shanghai has been one of the world’s major centers for finance, business and economics, research, education, science and technology, manufacturing, tourism, culture, dining, art, fashion, sports, and transportation, and the Port of Shanghai is the world’s busiest container port. Consider that As one of the main industrial centers of China, Shanghai plays a key role in domestic manufacturing and heavy industry. Several industrial zones—including Shanghai Hongqiao Economic and Technological Development Zone, Jinqiao Export Economic Processing Zone, Minhang Economic and Technological Development Zone, and Shanghai Caohejing High-Tech Development Zone—are backbones of Shanghai’s secondary sector. Shanghai is home to China’s largest steelmaker Baosteel Group, China’s largest shipbuilding base Hudong-Zhonghua Shipbuilding Group, and one of China’s oldest shipbuilders, the Jiangnan Shipyard.[157][158] Auto manufacturing is another important industry. The Shanghai-based SAIC Motor is one of the three largest automotive corporations in China, and has strategic partnerships with Volkswagen and General Motors.[159].

So perhaps this maybe the bigger event should the lockdown continue.

#12 crowdedelevatorfartz on 04.16.22 at 10:58 am

@#6 Turner Nation
Re : food

Experts have expressed concern at China’s hoarding of food.
The war in Russia and Ukraine may lead to a poor crop for the world’s hungry.
Last year Ukraine supplied China with almost 30% of its wheat and 25% of its barley.
Not this year.
China , with approx. 20% of the worlds population, has an 18 month stockpile of food for its people.
Pork has been snapped up at a massive rate.
The US Dept of Agriculture has noted that, by Sept of this year, China will have stock piled 50% of the World’s wheat, 60% of the worlds rice and 70% of the worlds maize.
Their stockpile of food is at historic highs and they keep buying.

What will that do to the World wide price of bread and meat ( grain feed for animals) if we have a bad summer crop in Canada and the US?

#13 Søren Angst on 04.16.22 at 11:03 am

* that was

€900 MILLION

https://www.ansa.it/english/news/politics/2022/04/01/ukraine-italy-has-seized-900mn-from-oligarchs-di-maio_1913a204-4b38-4047-91ce-98e0be62d1f5.html

and NOT Billion.

My bad.

Still a nice haul for Italia. Cha-ching.

Mangiami Russia. 😡

Slava Ukraini. 🙏

PS:

On Roma heat this time of year expect the odd “nubifragio”. they last just a few minutes, isolated (e.g., the next block over, nothing).

But at 26 deg vs. Manitoba the last few days,

who.cares.

#14 ogdoad on 04.16.22 at 11:05 am

Scary as heck , if you ask me. We’re here in our nice, little bubbles, watching what we think is real on the news then getting bored and resorting to netflix and dreaming of 4000sqft houses with beamers in the driveway.

I know, I know….what else are we going to do before we croak?

Let’s see:

– Hug more
– Hunt for oxy. If you don’t know how you know where to find me
– Good music
– Shun the leute who talk about nothing but their house; their lack of imagination will get you nowhere.
– raise the bar ’till you die or until you turn into a zombie (too late for most)

Oh right, read this blog!

Happy bunny weekend!

Og

#15 crowdedelevatorfartz on 04.16.22 at 11:17 am

@#5 treaties.

I read the article and what I took from it was politicians and bureaucrats in Ireland washed their hands of responsibility and gave it to the WHO….
No big surprise or conspiracy there.
Just typical incompetence and laziness by all levels of govt willing to pass the buck off on someone else….on full display.
But that’s Ireland
Ever been to Canada?
It’s even worse here with the pc and Woke apologists in charge….and 99% of them aren’t 90 years old.

#16 Linda on 04.16.22 at 11:25 am

Doug, an excellent analysis. My only caveat is the nuclear one. Various comments I’ve read leave me with the impression that the commenters expect nuclear war would not end our life as we know it. I beg to differ. If ever the ‘powers that be’ decide to start exchanging nuclear firepower, the ones who die in the initial conflict will be the lucky ones. There have been many articles outlining the consequences of climate change; now imaging how adding radioactive dust would pan out. The very air would be deadly & last I checked, we need to breathe. I suppose it is possible some pockets of humanity might survive living underground but I’ve my doubts that there are adequate facilities available to house enough folks to keep the race alive long term. Hope may spring eternal, but realistically speaking the nuclear option is the end.

#17 Søren Angst on 04.16.22 at 11:28 am

BTW Doug, there was another photo of Putin in his puffy jacket that you could have used.

https://twitter.com/KutiFehler/status/1504960085495365635

I’d say that was a more accurate depiction of Putin.

#18 Doug Rowat on 04.16.22 at 11:33 am

#2 Flop… on 04.16.22 at 10:02 am
Hey Robax, I saw this visualization the other day and thought of your hairy legs.

—-

I discuss nuclear war in my post. I think readers have suffered enough visualizing that.

—Doug

#19 Ponzius Pilatus on 04.16.22 at 11:38 am

#7 crowdedelevatorfartz on 04.16.22 at 10:42 am
@#3 Dharma
“Putin and his overstuffed puffy jacket.”

+++
Puffy down jacket aside.
Apparently Putin was wearing a $50,000 watch and his clothes rang the bell at another 20k when he was rousing the crowd of cheering and flag waving Brown Shirts with patriotic promises of soon to be recaptured, fictional, Russian “glory”.
Although how that “glory” will be achieved when the entire planet is glowing like a Chernobyl sarcophagus after dark escapes me.

One wrong, misplaced ( or intentional ), missile with a few dead American soldiers as the result …..and we’ll all be in this….. to the bitter end.
————————-
What?
Happy Resurrection, Everyone!

#20 DON on 04.16.22 at 11:52 am

@Crowded and Blog

“…I noticed a huge $215 million development project owned by a Chinese company was quietly sold in Burnaby last week( absolutely nothing on the local 6pn “news” about this they’re busy reporting the latest apology from the Pope)….so they could make a loan payment back in the Glorious Motherland.
The first of many?

https://www.burnabynow.com/real-estate-news/huge-burnaby-condo-development-sold-by-troubled-china-aoyuan-for-215m-5269972

*************
Then there is this…

https://globalnews.ca/news/8758137/cnooc-prepares-exit-canada-us-uk-oil/amp/

“China’s oil champion CNOOC prepares retreat from Canada, U.S., U.K. over sanctions fear.”

#21 Quintilian on 04.16.22 at 12:00 pm

Hey Doug, perhaps you left off an important one from your checklist.

A very important one close to home.

Private Canadian debt 2.5 trillion.

Tick Tock, Tick Tock

#22 Tom from Mississauga on 04.16.22 at 12:07 pm

Big thing missing is global agriculture supply disruption. No Chinese phosphate export, no Belarus or Russian potash, no Euro nitrogen fertilizer production, limited herbicide, pesticide, fungicide made from natural gas, no calorie export from Ukraine and Russia. Very strong likelihood of a global famine a year out.

#23 DON on 04.16.22 at 12:45 pm

https://theintercept.com/2022/04/14/russia-ukraine-noam-chomsky-jeremy-scahill/

#24 Doug t on 04.16.22 at 12:50 pm

Famine, war, pandemics – on going global stress is messing with the mental health of billions – don’t worry though Big Pharma/Big Brother got u covered – no wonder the creators of Black Mirror decided to pull the pin

#25 Sail Away on 04.16.22 at 1:25 pm

Thanks Doug! Checklists are always helpful.

Regarding market risk, I’d place Ukraine/Russia risk to us as nearly negligible. There’s always a war somewhere and, at least in this case, any shortages caused by war benefit Canada’s producers. We produce exactly the same items, which are now worth more, as seen with fertilizer, O&G, uranium, general mining, commodities.

And markets are still a bit wobbly. This feels like the beginning of a multiyear golden era of N American investing. Nonplused says buy all things. I’d agree and include good companies in that list.

#26 T Rex and the dinosaur clique on 04.16.22 at 1:36 pm

US v. Russia:

Not happening. The US military industrial complex loves Russia. They are making billions on arms sales right now to keep the dust up in Ukraine going. Besides, both the US and Russia know how such a war would end – with major US and Russian cities becoming smoking holes in the ground, so radioactive that no one could live there for 100,000 years.

So the interest rate spikes are having a rather nice consequence….people are selling their stuff.

I just commenced bargaining for a 1973 VW Thing…a vehicle I have been trying to add to my collection for years now. They are usually either ridiculously expensive or rotten rust buckets.

The sellers of the good ones used to laugh at me when I questioned their ridiculous prices. “Go find another one!” They would laugh. And they were right. There aren’t any. Supply dictates price. If you want one you gotta pay…

But now things are different. There are a lot of people in the USA, and more so now in Canada too, who are getting squeezed by the end of free COVID money combined with higher interest rates.

I have this guy talking. He wanted 25K US to which I scoffed. Not happening. We are now talking 20K, which is still too high but if I keep this going I can get him down to 17 or 18 which is probably the actual value of the vehicle.

He’s selling to pay his mortgage down. Interest rates got too high so he has to do a lump sum. Selling his 52 beetle crotch cooler, his 68 fastback, a crappy Ghia and my little diamond, a numbers matching 1973 type 181 (“the thing”).

Looks like this will be my lucky day…..

#27 Philco on 04.16.22 at 1:49 pm

#7 crowdedelevatorfartz on 04.16.22 at 10:42 am

And T2s plan with his $20,000 plate dinner for the CCP was to jump into bed with them doing business and Canadians would flourish with tons of jobs because their awesome.

#28 Macduff on 04.16.22 at 1:51 pm

Doug,
I have heard very little from my financial advisor since the war began. What should be the expectation of FA’s during this uncertain time?

#29 Dr V on 04.16.22 at 1:54 pm

Why the Long Face? Canadians richer than ever!

https://www.cbc.ca/news/business/economic-health-column-don-pittis-1.6418102

Just like Shawn says!

#30 Philco on 04.16.22 at 2:05 pm

CEF
Globalization is a BIG part of the problem. A couple hecups, a ship goes sidways in a canal and the wheels fall off the bus.
North America could be self sufficient for the most part. But our idiot leaders cant see past their nose.

#31 David on 04.16.22 at 2:33 pm

You also need to look at the impact of the war on climate change. Europe is already ramping up coal production and the transition to green energy will be impacted. It’s sad that Quebec politicians blackballed the Energy East Pipeline years ago as Canada could now be shipping Alberta oil to Europe via New Brunswick to replace Russian oil. Ditto the Keystone Pipeline to the USA. War-related inflation could lead to serious unrest in Europe to the benefit of rightwing parties. The upcoming French presidential election could be a harbinger.

#32 Dogman01 on 04.16.22 at 2:46 pm

CIA Chief Says Threat Russia Could Use Nuclear Weapons Is Something U.S. Cannot ‘Take Lightly’

https://www.rferl.org/a/russia-nuclear-weapons-burns-cia/31804539.html

The Adults in the Room
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=su4czYxGYxo

About the 8:15 Min mark, “The West needs to build Putin a “Golden Bridge” to escape from his conundrum”. (refreshing to see the Left view presenting a rational perspective)

The most potent Russian asset is patience that outlasts the short attention span of western news media. Instead of a Russian defeat Ukraine and the west will eventually cut a dirty deal with Putin. Many interests in the West will be served by encouraging a continuation of this war into a long drawn out stalemate, so that dirty deal may be drawn out.

Regime Change in Russa or presenting an existential crisis to Russia is far too high on the risk reward scale.

With a little research I see a current Russian ICBM has 8-10 warheads, each MIRV with a 500KT-750KT nuclear warhead. (Hiroshima was just 13KT so min 38 – 57 times more powerful ).
Reviewing a prominent Think-Tanks simulation of an escalation crisis I noticed my second tier Canadian city was destroyed at about the 36 hours mark after the initial tactical nuke use in Europe.

I wonder what effect that could have on my portfolio?

https://nuclearwarsimulator.com/

#33 Tarot Card on 04.16.22 at 2:48 pm

Thanks for the blog Garth
Thanks for the post Doug
Yes wall of worry!

I read that the Russians might denote one of those small nuclear weapons and the US would then respond in kind and then peace would happen. Different prospective

The BC government now has an official web site to welcome Ukrainians and for BC people to help. So that’s good news.

5 million people displaced, I still cannot get my head around that!

I also read some big US brokers are sitting on high cash reserves, you probably know better, is that fake news?

The reason I worry is while I agree on economic sanctions I wonder the outcome?

Happy Easter!

#34 Love Crypto on 04.16.22 at 2:50 pm

WWIII? Probably not…
———————————————————-

We’re in it. You’re just behind the curve to see what is being prepared.

#35 Concerned Citizen on 04.16.22 at 2:55 pm

Douglas Todd: Trudeau’s crackdown on real-estate investors won’t work. Here’s why.

https://windsorstar.com/opinion/columnists/douglas-todd-trudeaus-crackdown-on-house-investors-all-about-posturing-not-fixing/

“What is extremely valuable about Gordon’s work is it also reveals that many purchases are made by residents of Canada acting as proxies for those overseas. Gordon’s superior definition of foreign ownership is “housing purchased primarily with income or wealth earned abroad and not taxed as income in Canada.”

“our government mostly pours more gas on demand. They especially do so by shooting for record immigration levels, along with unprecedented volumes of temporary workers and foreign students. Virtually every real-estate analyst now acknowledges the obvious: Migration-fueled population growth heightens demand, which increases prices.”

I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again – if Canadian families have to compete with foreign capital, money launderers, and foreign students with zero declared income and $50 million in the bank, housing will never be affordable in this country. Add in huge immigration relative to population – compared to modern history and other developed countries – and existing Canadians don’t stand a chance.

The Liberals are doing essentially nothing to address any of this. Therefore, I can only conclude they aren’t serious about bringing about housing affordability. This supply increase, should it ever materialize, will just provide more opportunity for foreign capital and money launderers.

#36 Dogman01 on 04.16.22 at 3:07 pm

$215 million development project owned by a Chinese company was quietly sold in Burnaby last week
development-sold-by-troubled-china-aoyuan-for-215m-5269972

CNOOC divesting from the West
https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/exclusive-chinas-oil-champion-prepares-western-retreat-over-sanctions-fear-2022-04-13/

Apple ,may own the facilities and factories in China or perhaps just the IP. Should the West and China Rupture who has the advantage? They guys whom have the factories on their soil or the guys whom own the IP?
In the West we believe legal fictions of ownership but if China invades Taiwan who keeps the industrial capacity to be independent from whom?

What better time then now, a US administration that is a mess, a President in cognitive decline, a divided US population with a large portion of the ruling class compromised.

History does not crawl, it leaps.

#37 Sail Away on 04.16.22 at 3:14 pm

I can’t believe people think seizing Russian private citizens’ assets is acceptable.

#38 WTF on 04.16.22 at 3:15 pm

Sounds like an incomplete characterization. Housing is weighted 31% in CPI. Explain that based on the above sentence.

I gave you links to the horses mouth data.

Again:

https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/pub/71-607-x/71-607-x2018016-eng.htm

And to explain exactly how housing costs are in CPI and why they use the method they do see:

https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/pub/62f0014m/62f0014m2017001-eng.htm

==================================

No thanks, I think I will stick with Hilliard and Steve’s analysis as opposed to your “horses mouth”

#39 Patel on 04.16.22 at 3:16 pm

#7 Crowdedelevatorfartz.

Despite being a much weaker economy compared to China, India has done much better job of vaccinating people in last 1 year.Almost 800 mils are fully vaccinated and 1 Billion at least have one dose.

Note: when reading news about India in MSM ,keep in mind that most of its twisted to match the communist leftist narrative driven ” news”.Much of it is outright lies and misinformation.

#40 Craig on 04.16.22 at 3:22 pm

If anybody misssed the Bill Browder interview on “The View” two days ago , it is an absolute must see of how Putin operates and why the Ukraine war is even taking place. Just under 9 minutes long. Happy Easter to all.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=h0jseZlw1ZA

#41 Doug Rowat on 04.16.22 at 4:01 pm

#7 crowdedelevatorfartz on 04.16.22 at 10:42 am
@#3 Dharma
“Putin and his overstuffed puffy jacket.”

+++
Puffy down jacket aside.
Apparently Putin was wearing a $50,000 watch…

—-

He has a fascination with watches and a habit of giving them away to “workers” he meets on his travels as a display of his generosity.

However, it’s been shown that the same workers often reappear, likely plants from his security staff.

—Doug

#42 Linda on 04.16.22 at 4:11 pm

#7 ‘crowded’ – interesting you brought up China & its Covid response. I’m not the only one who thinks China isn’t telling the full story regarding their Covid death rates. The numbers being posted via Worldmeter show China with less than 5,000 deaths & under 150,000 confirmed infections. Exactly 2 deaths were added to the ‘official’ number earlier this year, nearly a year after the last reported death. Various experts opine the true death toll for China is at a minimum 800K; not a few think 1.7 million at the very least.

Insofar as vaccination goes, I’d believe most if not all of China’s population has been vaccinated, by force if necessary. However given the reluctance of other countries to accept Sinovac as being effective could be that particular vaccine didn’t provide sufficient protection.

As for supply chain issues, ongoing issues appear to be the new normal. Latest is the Texas governor delaying shipments from Mexico because he felt illegal immigration needed a stronger response than what Mexico had been providing. Apparently the flow of goods has resumed after some politicking between said Texas governor & Mexican officials but not before a lot of produce passed its best before date in transit. More shortages, more inflation due to said shortages. Yeehaw!

#43 Robert James on 04.16.22 at 4:18 pm

DELETED

#44 cuke and tomato picker on 04.16.22 at 4:34 pm

No visuals of PUTIN PLEASE.

#45 Active on 04.16.22 at 5:52 pm

Garth, take that picture down NOW!

#46 Zippy on 04.16.22 at 6:50 pm

#16 Linda

Not the end…

Nuclear war? Ain’t nothin but a thang!

https://www.navalgazing.net/Nuclear-Weapon-Destructiveness

#47 Nonplused on 04.16.22 at 7:03 pm

#34 Love Crypto on 04.16.22 at 2:50 pm
WWIII? Probably not…
———————————————————-

We’re in it. You’re just behind the curve to see what is being prepared.

————————————-

Yup. What have we got, captured NATO military commanders who were directing Azov, incoming western arms they don’t even have to pay for, and US intelligence providing targeting information. (There was no way for the Ukrainians to know where the Moskva was without NATO telling them.)

NATO is going to fight until the last Ukrainian. The only question is if and when they move in their own troops. I mean other than the field commanders, who are already there.

But, as with any war, it is completely impossible to tell what is going on over there. The first casualty of any war is the truth. The generals all believe you must lie. Partly to keep the enemy in the dark, but also to keep your own public and soldiers in the dark. So we can’t really trust anything.

On the western side, let’s recount a few recent lies:
– weapons of mass destruction
– babies in incubators
– the Taliban
– “Russian collusion”
– Trump’s taxes (those walls are still closing in!)
– Charlottesville
– drink bleach
– Hunter’s laptop
– “Snake Island”
– “The ghost of Kiev”
– Other assorted old file footage
– The biolabs
– House hippos (although I liked that one it was funny)

And the list goes on and on. Strangely most people still believe them. You simply won’t be able to get an American to admit that the Taliban were not responsible for 9/11, they just knew a guy who was.

And the Russian side probably lies just as much, only we don’t see it because we are not the target audience.

In fact, given the history of the MSM, I can’t believe anyone believes a single thing you see on TV, save for maybe Musk’s latest bid for Twitter. And that’s only because Musk tweets it out, or they would probably lie about that too. The have lied to us about everything! I dare say there is not one single thing about which they told the truth, yet we still believe them! Why?

Personally I can’t bring myself to take sides in this war. Partly because I don’t believe anything about it, and partly because I can’t see how Azov went from genocidal Nazi terrorists to national heroes overnight. But we fell for it and Trudeau is sending in the money and the tough talk, which is kind of funny. Canada talking tough to Russia. He’s probably talking about “our democracy” and “ideas that are unacceptable to Canadians”, meanwhile Putin is probably wondering “who is this guy?”

(PS, if you get out your special decoder ring, you’ll find that “our democracy” and “ideas that are unacceptable to Canadians” are strictly the Laurentian version of such things. If you live west of Thunder Bay you ain’t part of “our democracy” and all your ideas are unacceptable. That is how modern tolerance works.)

Words of wisdom from the biggest Republican apologist on this site who told us unproven voter fraud was real and Trump won the 2020 election. Thank God there are some real truth-seeking reporters left before we all sink into social media echo chambers and label everything we disagree with as ‘fake news.’ In this instance one country invaded another without much reason resulting in millions of refugee families, untold numbers of corpses, well-documented war crimes, global disruption, cruelty and trillions in damage to civilian infrastructure. There is no justification. Nor will my blog be a platform for this message. – Garth

#48 Flop… on 04.16.22 at 7:41 pm

I was o.k with Shrinkflation for a while.

You got to the yogurt, cold cuts, granola bars, soap, just to name a few products that have shrunk in size to keep the price down with inflation on the rampage.

Now you’ve taken it too far, when I was a kid we used to buy ice cream in 4 litre buckets.

I begrudgingly accepted it being available to be purchased in 2 litre containers and acknowledged this was a convenient size for apartment living without access to a huge freezer.

A few years ago a lot of ice cream companies started banging out 1.66 litre containers, I was like a jilted lover but kept my head down over my bowl, albeit for one less serving per container.

Today?

Today Breyers has taken it too far.

1.41 litres is the new size, what the heck man!

I might as well not even get a bowl out and just scoff it out of the container in one serving.

I’m as mad as hell and I’m not going to take it anymore.

Here’s the plan, I’m calling on all Ice-Cream truck drivers to head to Ottawa immediately.

We are going to play that annoying ice cream truck music until it is signed into law ice cream at the supermarket cannot be served in smaller containers than 2 litres.

Stay away from the Terry Fox statue, respect all the other memorials, and if Maxime Bernier tries to offer you a soft serve ice cream, you tell him to shove it.

NDP, they better get on board, you wanna see an Orange crush?

You don’t mess with my Mango Icecream…

M47BC

#49 Sail Away on 04.16.22 at 7:59 pm

#47 Nonplused on 04.16.22 at 7:03 pm

I dare say there is not one single thing about which they told the truth, yet we still believe them! Why?

———–

Take nothing at face value. Jump on no bandwagons.

#50 Flop… on 04.16.22 at 8:55 pm

It’s only Saturday Night humour gang, which is different to the stuff I come up with at noon on Tuesday.

Big guns will have to tow the line too.

Pierre Poilievre, he’ll probably get on board with my idea pretty quickly as he looks like a guy that should be serving ice cream down at Granville Island.

Metrosexual Messiah, he’s like a Banana Split, dunno, do they like icecream in Quebec?

Trudeau better sign on or I will crush his nuts and sprinkle them on my next Sundae…

M47BC

#51 crowdedelevatorfartz on 04.16.22 at 9:23 pm

@#39 Patel.
“Note: when reading news about India in MSM ,keep in mind that most of its twisted to match the communist leftist narrative driven ” news”.Much of it is outright lies and misinformation.”

+++

I would rather trust the MSM than the sycophantic Indian media that has been bullied in submission by Prime Minister Modi’s “good news only” drivel.

https://rsf.org/en/news/three-indian-journalists-could-be-jailed-nine-years-tweets-about-video

https://www.science.org/content/article/covid-19-may-have-killed-nearly-3-million-india-far-more-official-counts-show

https://www.economist.com/asia/2021/06/12/more-evidence-emerges-of-indias-true-death-toll-from-covid-19

#52 crowdedelevatorfartz on 04.16.22 at 9:43 pm

@#31 Doug Rowat

“He has a fascination with watches and a habit of giving them away to “workers” he meets on his travels as a display of his generosity.”

+++

Masha Gessen’s excellent book on Putin’s early life and unexpected rise to power,

“The Man Without a Face; The unlikely rise of Vladimir Putin”

She notes Putin’s early greed and fascination with ANY pretentious gifts that could be used to show off.
Putin was the only child to survive the War and was spoiled by his parents.

Page 47 , paragraph 3

“Given their unceasing doting on their son, this sometimes produced noteworthy results, such as first-grader Vladimir’s sporting a wristwatch, a rare, expensive, and prestigious accessory for any age group in that time and place.”

Many times in his life his parent lavished gifts on him and he never reciprocated.
His parent won a lottery in the 1960’s and gave him a car as a gift while he attended university. He was the only student in the city of Leningrad at that time with a car.
He worked during the Summer months in the far north of Russia and when he returned he purchased a very expensive overcoat for himself and gave his mother…. a cake.
His father received nothing.

The guy is a greedy prick.

#53 Doug t on 04.16.22 at 10:11 pm

#47 Nonplussed

TRUTH being spoken right there = WAKE UP PEOPLE

#54 Ustabe on 04.16.22 at 10:16 pm

#49 Sail Away on 04.16.22 at 7:59 pm

#47 Nonplused on 04.16.22 at 7:03 pm

I dare say there is not one single thing about which they told the truth, yet we still believe them! Why?
———–
Take nothing at face value. Jump on no bandwagons.

Couple of days ago a poster here put forward the proposition that the Liberal government was putting a tax on trucks. Pretty firmly too.

“Environment Minister Steven Guilbeault said the Conservatives are lying about a secret government plan to add a green tax to pickup trucks.

There have been several tweets from Tory MPs, the Conservative party and Alberta Premier Jason Kenney in recent days insisting the government is about to extend a federal green levy to pickups.

“This so-called fee on trucks doesn’t exist,” Guilbeault said Wednesday, in a tweet responding to Conservative MP and leadership candidate Pierre Poilievre.”

That quote is from Canadian Press. So, ya, take nothing at face value, including the hive mind here in the Greater Fool comment section.

As to your statement to jump on no bandwagons…does that mean we will be spared the Tesla fanboy crap you are so fond of?

#55 Proud Truck Driver on 04.16.22 at 10:27 pm

Having (almost) conquered Russia in Europe, NATO is moving on to its next target: China. I bet you Xi and his political bureau cohorts are shaking in their boots now!

https://asia.nikkei.com/Politics/Ukraine-war/NATO-Asia-Pacific-partners-agree-to-bolster-cooperation

Note to myself: Luckily we live under the protection of our neighbor who has the biggest stick. More luckily we are always on the right side of the human history!

Also news:

https://thediplomat.com/2022/04/china-says-regular-military-supplies-delivered-to-serbia/

#56 Grunt on 04.16.22 at 10:42 pm

Putin wakes daily to the war with his full focus. He’s niffed at the brits & yanks. Canada doesn’t even enter his mind.

#57 Sail Away on 04.16.22 at 10:43 pm

#54 Ustabe on 04.16.22 at 10:16 pm

As to your statement to jump on no bandwagons…does that mean we will be spared the Tesla fanboy crap you are so fond of?

———-

Never.

TSLA has earned me:

*5700% since original purchase at 17 (split adjusted) in 2013
*294% since purchase in March 2020
*63% since purchase in March 2021
*15% since purchase in January 2022

Credit where credit is due. That’s not an emotional bandwagon; it’s proven results.

#58 Michael in-north-york on 04.16.22 at 11:17 pm

While the risk of a nuclear war cannot be dismissed, letting Putin off the hook can pose a greater risk. Many countries will conclude that the international law no longer protects them, and they need their own nukes to avoid being invaded.

Once we have 25 or 30 nuclear-armed countries on the planet, the risk of a nuclear strike exchange will be a lot greater than today. Some of those will be ruled by psychopath dictators, who first start a conventional war to strengthen their hold of power, and then if it doesn’t go well, ready to escalate to the nuclear level. Some can attempt a false-flag operation, i.e. Country X plants a launcher in Country Y and attacks Country Z, hoping to trigger a nuclear war between Y and Z and benefit from their mutual destruction. More nuke holders means a lot harder to track what each of them is up to.

Instead, keep the sanctions on and finish Putin off. His system is weaker than it looks from the outside. He rules a very big country that could, in theory, be self-sufficient, but his kleptocratic administrators have no idea how to achieve that. Reginal bosses won’t give any incentives to private businesses to make replacements for the no longer available foreign parts. Instead, they will whine and demand support payments from the federal government, and then use the money to buy “services” from dependent companies owned by their close relatives or buddies. Self-enrichment was their top priority for the past 20 years, and that won’t change now.

#59 Doug Rowat on 04.16.22 at 11:25 pm

#28 Macduff on 04.16.22 at 1:51 pm
Doug,
I have heard very little from my financial advisor since the war began. What should be the expectation of FA’s during this uncertain time?

—-

Do they discuss it regularly on blogs such as this or on weekly calls? Do they respond promptly to calls or emails expressing concern over these events? This should be at least some of what you should expect.

—Doug

#60 TurnerNation on 04.17.22 at 1:35 am

Control over feeding. What a co-incidence! What timing. Thank goodness our rulers love us so and just wish for our HEALTH. Yes. All of this is for our optimum health.
Maybe by the 5th eh guys?

#61 TurnerNation on 04.17.22 at 1:36 am

Oops forgot to paste the key part….

Russia and Ukraine are Europe’s breadbasket; the International Food Policy Research Institute estimates that their exports represent 12 percent of all the food calories traded in the world.Mar 11, 2022

The War in Ukraine Is Threatening the Breadbasket of Europehttps://www.wired.com › Science › Ukraine

#62 Generous to a fault on 04.17.22 at 2:08 am

No matter the dictatorship, people find ways to profit. Adam Smith called it ‘the invisible hand’. Human nature is greed and acquisition. We’ve been living under the kid glove collective of western culture for decades, but not always. Communism had to adapt. Trudeau tried to kill energy but we survive.

War is a human genetic constant. Look at your history. Canada only exists because the world elsewhere was a crap fest under historic regimes and strangling religions. And investors are seeing the end of an era in bonds. What a wipeout. That strategy was a slow motion suicide. Be nimble, it’s not an invisible occurrence. The 60/40 is dead….obviously. You want safety, crawl under the bed.

Be like Gretzky, skate to where the puck will be. Buy stocks no matter which dictatorship is current. Russia doesn’t matter anymore. The next really big war will be the Quad against China.

Focus on the effects of the assault. An early investor has made a bundle on Ag and Oil. China is likely to do what Japan did in WW2. Who made money then? That’s what you should be planning for now.

#63 T-Man on 04.17.22 at 2:44 am

#55 – Proud truck driver : Do you mean lucky, like Iraq? Or lucky, like Vietnam? Or lucky, like Serbia? They’re bullies and possibly one of the most hated nations on earth. Be afraid, very afraid…

#64 T-Man on 04.17.22 at 2:52 am

# 47 – Nonplused : Hear, hear! You rock for saying it, and Garth rocks for allowing it to be said on his most excellent blog. Cheers!

#65 crowdedelevatorfartz on 04.17.22 at 3:30 am

@#55 Trucks
“Having (almost) conquered Russia in Europe, ”

+++

Pffft.
This invasion has only been going on for 6 weeks.

When Putin invaded Chechnya for the second time in the early 2000’s his invasion lasted 18 months.
They pounded everything to dust with artillery , rockets, planes, bombs, etc etc etc.
Civilians were targeted and the cities completely destroyed.
Total annihilation is the Russian military doctrine.
It’s what they do best.

The current Russian maneuvering in Ukraine is a regrouping of troops, equipment, supplies, tactics, material and propaganda…..

The new Major General in charge ( the same ruthless s.o.b. that butchered Chechnya and Syria) has a reputation for shovelling his own troops into the meat grinder of war with zero compassion.

https://www.npr.org/2022/04/15/1092882592/russia-ukraine-war-update-butcher-of-syria-putin-dvornikov

Sadly.
This nightmare will only end when the mothers of the thousands of dead Russian soldiers rise up to be heard and fill the jails during protests.
I hope the West has the stomach for whats coming.

#66 Western Wiles on 04.17.22 at 4:40 am

https://www.latimes.com/opinion/story/2022-04-14/russia-ukraine-invasion-deglobalization-china-trade

Hey Moondoggy, it ain’t just Russia on the move. The globalists who thought they had our nots in a vise are seeing the whole scam escape their grasp are trying to realign , but align with who?

Did you notice Trudeau has denied Canada a seat at the Quad table? Why do you think? Is Trudeau getting behind China? Will the USA have to invade Canada to stop China putting it’s military along the US border?

China plans to take Taiwan. They say “The Quad” is trying to stop us. We’ll, DUH !! Did you see the slave chains they laid on in Hong Kong? 7 million people fed to a regime that guts the organs from it’s opposition.

Why is Trudeau such a staunch supporter of China? When that war starts, and it already has, who’s side will Trudeau align with? So far he’s been persona non grata with our traditional allies. Will spite see him attempt a third coup against his father’s charter?

#67 under the radar on 04.17.22 at 5:52 am

37- “I can’t believe people think seizing Russian private citizens’ assets is acceptable.” Unthinkable not to allow thieves to keep their gains.

#68 Joe Lalonde on 04.17.22 at 8:23 am

Our politicians hate reality.
They even commission studies in a multitude of areas to follow a narrative that is paid for the deception and anyone not with that deception is being branded.
It gets in the way of the uncertainty of reality.
These deceptive individuals become our experts paid by our politicians and media to incorporate that vision.
Many documentary programs do that even when reality is uncooperative.

So our politicians have created an alternative unreality where they impose and don’t use real experts trained in their fields to incorporate a different narrative.
Trying to force Electric Vehicles is another such fantasy that will fail spectacularly. We have an AC infrastructure and this concept is a DC product. Our transformers aren’t designed for the immensely more Electricity that will be needed as wires become heating elements and generate more fires as chances of electrocution is greatly increased.

Just thought it would be an important point for an investment future, considering the insurance companies will soon catch on that they could burn down houses as the wiring problems will only be more obvious as more Electric Vehicles burn, baby, burn.

#69 Phylis on 04.17.22 at 8:42 am

“This so-called fee on trucks doesn’t exist,” Guilbeault said Wednesday, in a tweet responding to Conservative MP and leadership candidate Pierre Poilievre.”
Xxxx
He should have added “today” to his tweet, if he was truthful, but he is a busy person. Let’s see the transcripts of the strategizing sessions. Oh, forgot, that doesn’t exist. I figure there’s a leak somewhere.

#70 Bezengy on 04.17.22 at 9:03 am

#35 Concerned Citizen on 04.16.22 at 2:55 pm

from the Douglas Todd article.

CRA officials had admitted, in internal documents, they were not willing to devote auditors to catching these “highly sophisticated” tax-avoiding schemes by Metro Vancouver mansion owners and others.

‘They were scared,” the source said, “of being labelled racist.’”
Because of the absence of cooperation, many Metro house owners have been avoiding paying capital gains taxes. They have been falsely claiming they are residents of Canada for tax and immigration purposes when they are actually mostly living outside the country and not disclosing their foreign income.

—————–

If I was in charge of things just the mere mention of the CRA would send shockwaves of fear down your spine. I’d have a special court established with a 72 hour process implemented from start to finish including confiscations and evictions, and then the auction would commence on the following Saturday at 9 am.

#71 Squire on 04.17.22 at 9:04 am

#66 Western Wiles on 04.17.22 at 4:40 am
——————
Radicals with narcissistic tendencies are also often not capable of retrospect. So they continue with their behavior. The other issue too is people like Butts in the background constantly putting their two cents in. Unreal. Canadian’s need to wake up before we end up with irreversible policies.

#72 Sponge on 04.17.22 at 9:28 am

Yup…
https://www.theglobeandmail.com/opinion/article-boom-times-have-returned-to-alberta-common-sense-hasnt/

#73 I don’t know on 04.17.22 at 9:40 am

3 T-Man on 04.17.22 at 2:44 am

There are no connections between those conflicts and Ukraine. None. You may try to criticize Iraq, or Vietnam but you have the luxury of hindsight, which is 2020, and renders your criticisms useless.

US/western media may get some things wrong, US/western intelligence may get some things wrong, but not in this case. Anyone who says otherwise and tries whattaboutism here is being disingenuous.

The US/west are not “hated”, but secretly envied by the jealous and power hungry.

Any time someone is successful, the less successful try to bring it down, and this is no different.

My experience is most people who “hate the US or west, pick and choose their reasons to suit their inherent bias. Why don’t you mention all the scientific, technological, and educational advancements that come from the west? Why is it that in times of need, everyone runs to the west for help? How about the entire idea of the social safety net?

Why don’t you mention those in your diatribes?

IDK

#74 BigAl (Original) on 04.17.22 at 9:48 am

#27 Philco on 04.16.22 at 1:49 pm
#7 crowdedelevatorfartz on 04.16.22 at 10:42 am

And T2s plan with his $20,000 plate dinner for the CCP was to jump into bed with them doing business and Canadians would flourish with tons of jobs because their awesome.

====================================

Exactly the same thing Harper did…

“Prime Minister Stephen Harper approved the first two complete takeovers of Canadian-owned energy firms by foreign state-owned companies in our country’s history. He gave permission to CNOOC of China to purchase Nexen Inc., with its global conventional oil and shale gas assets, and to Petronas of Malaysia for its purchase of Progress Energy Resources Corp., a natural gas firm with operations in British Columbia and Alberta. The Prime Minister did this without the support of the Canadian public, whose opposition to both foreign takeovers crossed traditional political and party lines. Instead of listening to the public, or even those within the Conservative Party who opposed the CNOOC deal in particular, the Prime Minister used sleight of hand to trick Canadians into thinking these were “exceptional” cases, to be repeated only cautiously in the future. He made changes to the Investment Canada Act that raised the general threshold under which there would be no review of foreign takeovers to $1 billion while leaving it at $330 million for bids by state-owned firms. He appeared to close the door to ownership of the tar sands by companies controlled by foreign governments. But he didn’t close it at all. He left it wide open and signalled to China, Malaysia and other countries that Canada’s strategic energy resources were entirely for sale, not just to the highest bidder but to any bidder at all. Foreign ownership of the tar sands, whether state-owned or otherwise, was to become the norm, not the exception. This deceit will have lasting repercussions on our ability to manage Canada’s natural heritage, to protect our ecosystems that are already threatened by oil and gas development, and to uphold basic Indigenous, human and labour rights. ”

https://canadians.org/analysis/challenging-harper-governments-handling-cnooc-takeover-nexen

#75 crowdedelevatorfartz on 04.17.22 at 9:53 am

@#63 Troll-Man
“They’re bullies and possibly one of the most hated nations on earth.”

+++
That may be true but the U.S.A. is still a shining light on the top of the world that eveytone strives to achieve.

The C.I.A were questioning ( water boarding?) an al-Qaida fighter in some nameless Middle Eastern country a decade or so ago.
The guy was a low level grunt who had been paid peanuts to fight against America and they wanted intel on where the Big Fish might be hiding.
He was ultimately a big disappointment however one day he astonished the interrogators.
After days of questioning the prisoner asked the C.I.A. if his, “Chances of immigrating to the USA with his family were ruined by what he had done?”

Because no matter how crappy a persons’ life is and no matter how much they hate the US. They know things will be 100 times better for them and theirs in a country with Rules and Laws.
The Russian people, sadly, havent figured that out yet.

The US may not be perfect but it’s better than the alternative.

#76 I don’t know on 04.17.22 at 9:55 am

47 Nonplused on 04.16.22 at 7:03 pm

I’ve never read a bigger amount of conspiracy drivel jumbled together in my life.

I am surprised the Kennedy assassination, the moon landing, and flat earth were missing from that list.

IDK

#77 crowdedelevatorfartz on 04.17.22 at 9:57 am

@#73 I don;t know
Re Troll Man
“Why don’t you mention those in your diatribes?”

+++
Russian Tolls can’t be bothered with facts, reason and common sense….it helps them at avoid 20 years hard labour in the uranium mines of Siberia.

#78 Sail Away on 04.17.22 at 9:58 am

#59 Doug Rowat on 04.16.22 at 11:25 pm
#28 Macduff on 04.16.22 at 1:51 pm

Doug,
I have heard very little from my financial advisor since the war began. What should be the expectation of FA’s during this uncertain time?

———–

Do they discuss it regularly on blogs such as this or on weekly calls? Do they respond promptly to calls or emails expressing concern over these events? This should be at least some of what you should expect.

—Doug

————

If only there were a financial advisory firm out there that did those sorts of things. Searching… searching…

There must be at least one. Anyone?

In my line of work, we find it particularly enjoyable when potential clients request a detailed design proposal, then reproduce our detailed scope of work in an open call for bids. That person earns our version of a liquor store candid camera photo.

#79 Gravy Train on 04.17.22 at 10:27 am

#37 Sail Away on 04.16.22 at 3:14 pm
I can’t believe people think seizing Russian private citizens’ assets is acceptable.

The idea is that these ‘targeted’ Russian oligarchs and their family members will put sufficient pressure on Vladimir Putin to call off his insane war on Ukraine. Get it now? No? I give up! :(

On an unrelated matter: Do you think Putin is evil? When Sean Hannity asked Donald Trump that question, he refused to answer it. Will you? (Full disclosure: I think Putin is evil.)

#80 I don’t know on 04.17.22 at 10:30 am

crowdedelevatorfartz on 04.17.22 at 9:57 am

I tend to agree.

It’s clear one of the largest fronts of this war is social media. A lot of propaganda is flowing these days, and it’s pretty sick.

As the invasion becomes harder and harder to defend (it was never justified), the good news is its propaganda is becoming easier to detect, and call out.

IDK

#81 crowdedelevatorfartz on 04.17.22 at 10:30 am

Hmmm.
A month into the shut down of Shanghai and China’s economy is dropping…

https://www.reuters.com/world/china/china-data-show-sharp-march-deterioration-covid-bites-solid-q1-growth-2022-04-17/

And the folks in Shanghai are getting restless.
Rare demonstrations at the “total lockdown” doctrine that has been an epic fail….

https://www.ft.com/content/6813e7d6-5ac5-4a06-bd13-4592dc8e936e

Could that be why China is “easing” Shanghai lockdowns?

https://www.reuters.com/world/china/shanghai-targets-lockdown-turning-point-by-wednesday-sources-2022-04-17/

Which will ultimately allow covid infections to spread to the rest of China…….

Interesting times.

#82 Sail Away on 04.17.22 at 10:41 am

“When you first start to study a field, it seems like you have to memorize a zillion things. You don’t. What you need is to identify the core principles – generally three to twelve of them – that govern the field.”

— John Reed

#83 crowdedelevatorfartz on 04.17.22 at 10:47 am

@#68 Sail Away
“In my line of work, we find it particularly enjoyable when potential clients request a detailed design proposal, then reproduce our detailed scope of work in an open call for bids.”
+++
Yep.
I see it time and again when dealing with govt. management.
The overpaid, underworked sloths will email us with questions on “How should we do this?” “What materials should we use?” “How long will it take? etc etc etc.
All questions for jobs that are identical in scope to the previous jobs done year after year after year on the same sites.
Cookie cutter work a two toed sloth could organize faster.

Lazy, entitled, overpaid, job protected, mindless, pension for life, slugs……that’s our govt in a nutshell.

We then sit in hours long, unnecessary, meetings as the job progresses listening to the self same, politically correct he/she/theys, drone on and on as if they actually know what they are talking about.
Rarely is that the case.
In 2 minutes after the govt meeting wraps up we subcontractors hammer out what needs to be done and do it.

Govt oversite. may be required by Law…..but it’s painfully obvious after a decade of watching the self important incompetents-in-charge…..
It’s a waste of time.

But if the ultimate goal is merely to justify their useless jobs to their equally useless managers….they have succeeded.
To the detriment of millions of trees that are cut down, ground to pulp and made into paper for further documentation that no one wants, no one reads, no one cares about.

#84 Ponzius Pilatus on 04.17.22 at 10:57 am

#37 Sail Away on 04.16.22 at 3:14 pm
I can’t believe people think seizing Russian private citizens’ assets is acceptable.
————————-
Kinda agree with you on that one.
Unless they are indicted by an International Court.
Any experts on this here?

#85 Linda on 04.17.22 at 11:16 am

#46 ‘Zippy’ – thanks for the link. Couple of points. First, the death toll in Hiroshima/Nagasaki ranges from 130,000 to 215,000. That is combined immediate death from the initial blast plus lingering death from radiation post blast. If as the link you provided suggests todays nuclear weapons are 100 times more powerful, not exactly reassuring that ‘only’ 4,000 or so of said weapons are available for use currently. Even if the death toll is ‘only’ that of Hiroshima/Nagasaki per weapon deployed, you are talking at a minimum 520 million deaths should all 4,000 weapons hit populated areas. Which they would be aimed at & with 8 billion folks on the planet, lots of carnage ensues. But then there is that little issue with today’s weapons being so much more powerful. So let’s not go down the nuclear deployment rabbit hole. Very bad idea.

#86 Ponzius Pilatus on 04.17.22 at 11:21 am

Talking about Oligarchs.
Well, maybe just a small one.

U.S. SEC alleges B.C. businessman David Sidoo part of ‘global’ fraud ring
Former CFL player allegedly defrauded investors out of millions of dollars as part of multi-investor ring

#87 Patel on 04.17.22 at 11:23 am

#51 Crowdedelevatorfartz

I agree there is most likely more deaths than reported, but that’s because of shortcomings of public infrastructure and not due to a need of hiding the numbers like China openly does and all Western countries believe it like a word of God.

https://rsf.org/en/news/three-indian-journalists-could-be-jailed-nine-years-tweets-about-video

Likely you are unaware of India’s history for last 70 years where every public institution had been run over by Communist Leftist ideology.That include beurocracy,media etc.
PM Modi and his conservative party are really trying to take India to a better progressive economically powerful democratic country.But 70 years of hangover doesn’t reverse that easily.The leftist lobby in India with their powerful MSM tool and support from many Western NGOs (including from USA and Canada unfortunately) is really giving very strong fight.The reporters in the link above that you posted are exactly what I’m talking about.There is also a cultural/ religious angle here but I will not mention it here.I will leave it for you to try and understand.

But in short , in last 7 years of conservative rule India has progressed much better.The tax base has expanded multifold, GST implementation, infrastructure developement ongoing etc.There are many positive things happening . Unfortunately most westerners don’t know much about India and whatever they know is from BBC CBC CNN ,narrative of them doesn’t need to be detailed as everyone knows.

#88 Shawn on 04.17.22 at 11:25 am

Outrageous Corporate Tax reductions

The graph here shows that the corporates income tax rate in Canada has fallen from 50% in 1988 (As I have mentioned previously) to 26% today. It shows it over 52% in 1982 so it has indeed fallen in HALF.

In Alberta the corporate tax rate (federal plus provincial is 23%). For small business it’s 11% (9% federal and 2% provincial).

This is frankly mental. I am an investor and small business owner but I also know that this is ridiculous. The income tax burden has been massively shifted to higher income individuals and away from corporation and also away from low income people. Deficit reduction is going to require higher corporate taxes. We all know that government spending won’t be cut.

Where is the NDP on this? The population is so against government and taxes that most people seem to support this ridiculous race to the bottom on corporate tax rates.

https://tradingeconomics.com/canada/corporate-tax-rate#:~:text=Corporate%20Tax%20Rate%20in%20Canada%20averaged%2037.57%20percent%20from%201981,of%2026.10%20percent%20in%202012.

Higher corporate taxes increase corporate overhead and ultimately prices charged to consumers. That fuels inflation, already raging. Tax overhead also halts expansion, reinvestment and job creation. You sound quite one-dimensional on this issue. – Garth

#89 Ponzius Pilatus on 04.17.22 at 11:38 am

Business Insider
The first European Union leader to meet with Putin since the invasion of Ukraine says the Russian president ‘believes he is winning the war’
Kelsey Vlamis
Sat, April 16, 2022, 6:28 PM

Russian President Vladimir Putin.Mikhail Svetlov/Getty Image
* Austrian Chancellor Karl Nehammer was the first EU leader to meet with Putin since the invasion.
* Nehammer told NBC’s “Meet the Press” the conversation was “frank and tough.”
* He also said Putin is “in his own war logic” and thinks Russia is winning the war.
Austrian Chancellor Karl Nehammer said Russian President Vladimir Putin is fairly confident about his military campaign in Ukraine, even after Russian forces withdrew from part of the country after weeks of stagnation.
Nehammer on Monday became the first European Union leader to meet with Putin since Russia invaded Ukraine on February 24. In an interview with NBC’s “Meet the Press” on Saturday, Nehammer said the conversation with Putin was not “friendly” but “frank and tough.”
“I think he is now in his own war logic. He thinks the war is necessary for security guarantees for the Russian Federation. He doesn’t trust the international community. He blames Ukrainians for genocide in the Donbas region.”
When asked by host Chuck Todd if Putin thought he was winning the war, Nehammer said he thinks “he believes he is winning the war

#90 Proud Truck Driver on 04.17.22 at 11:42 am

Wow, Wow, Wow…

They must have stolen the know-how and technology from our companies (SNC-Lavalin? Aecon? Mattamy? Tridel? Country wide?)

Fartz, do you know where they stole from?

Watch the video below and be awed:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IzVXo2ezuJw

#91 Ponzius Pilatus on 04.17.22 at 11:43 am

#82 Sail Away on 04.17.22 at 10:41 am
“When you first start to study a field, it seems like you have to memorize a zillion things. You don’t. What you need is to identify the core principles – generally three to twelve of them – that govern the field.”
— John Reed
————————-
The 80/20 rule.
People spent too much time on the 80 percent that really don’t matter.
Like many posters here.

#92 Sail Away on 04.17.22 at 11:55 am

#79 Gravy Train on 04.17.22 at 10:27 am
#37 Sail Away on 04.16.22 at 3:14 pm

———-

I can’t believe people think seizing Russian private citizens’ assets is acceptable.

———-

On an unrelated matter: Do you think Putin is evil?

———-

At this time, I have insufficient information, or interest, in the subject to advance an opinion.

#93 Ponzius Pilatus on 04.17.22 at 11:58 am

#88 Shawn on 04.17.22 at 11:25 am
Outrageous Corporate Tax reductions
The graph here shows that the corporates income tax rate in Canada has fallen from 50% in 1988 (As I have mentioned previously) to 26% today. It shows it over 52% in 1982 so it has indeed fallen in HALF.
In Alberta the corporate tax rate (federal plus provincial is 23%). For small business it’s 11% (9% federal and 2% provincial).
This is frankly mental. I am an investor and small business owner but I also know that this is ridiculous. The income tax burden has been massively shifted to higher income individuals and away from corporation and also away from low income people. Deficit reduction is going to require higher corporate taxes. We all know that government spending won’t be cut.
Where is the NDP on this? The population is so against government and taxes that most people seem to support this ridiculous race to the bottom on corporate tax rates.
Higher corporate taxes increase corporate overhead and ultimately prices charged to consumers. That fuels inflation, already raging. Tax overhead also halts expansion, reinvestment and job creation. You sound quite one-dimensional on this issue. – Garth
———————-
Sorry, Garth.
But as a devout lefty, I gotta agree with Shawn.
Many small companies incorporate just to get the corporate tax rate and to avoid personal liability.

That made no sense. Incorporating does not spare a sole owner from legal liability (that is a myth). As corporate profits are taken into personal income, they are taxed. Additionally, Shawn is moaning about Jeff Bezos, not your neighbourhood plumber. – Garth

#94 Shawn on 04.17.22 at 12:01 pm

Lower Corporate Taxes?

Higher corporate taxes increase corporate overhead and ultimately prices charged to consumers. That fuels inflation, already raging. Tax overhead also halts expansion, reinvestment and job creation. You sound quite one-dimensional on this issue. – Garth

*****************************
I respect that view. BUT I watched in 2018 as the massive Trump corporate income tax reduction was announced. All analysis that I saw including comments from Warren Buffett expected the cuts to fall to the corporate bottom line. I expected much of it to be passed along in lower prices due to competition. I had faith in competition.

I was wrong. Stock prices and profits soared and little to none was passed along. Indicating that at least for S&P 500 corporations there is little price competition.

Some of the tax cut was passed along in high profile wage increases (Walmart for example).

Far from one dimensional on this issue, my view is that of a citizen although as an investor and small business owner I greatly benefit from the lower corporate taxes.

I see plenty of room for higher corporates taxes especially on companies like our protected large banks.

In all these years I have never heard a word of thanks from the corporate world about their tax rates falling so much.

The fact that corporate tax rates have fallen by half should at least be in the news at election time.

#95 crowdedelevatorfartz on 04.17.22 at 12:18 pm

87 Patel
“PM Modi and his conservative party are really trying to take India to a better progressive economically powerful democratic country.”

+++
Apparently your “rose colored glasses” don’t allow you to see Prime Minister Modi’s autocratic and xenophobic leanings.
Modi has ramped up the pro Hindu rhetoric against Muslims, Christians, Sikhs, etc.etc etc in his country since he has come to power..
Let us not forget Modi was the governor in charge of Ayodhya when a mob estimated at 75,000 strong obliterated a mosque with their bare hands to allow a Hindu temple to be built at the same sacred site.

https://rpl.hds.harvard.edu/religion-context/case-studies/violence-peace/destruction-ayodhya-mosque

A mosque that may have stood for 600 years was destroyed , brick by brick.

This is the same Modi who is now Prime Minister.
A man who takes every chance to promote Hinduism and denigrate the 15% of India’s population that is Muslim.

https://www.aljazeera.com/features/2021/2/26/how-a-former-communist-state-metamorphosed-into-a-communal-one

The same Prime Minister Modi that has outlawed free speech criticism as “sedition”.

https://www.hrw.org/report/2016/05/25/stifling-dissent/criminalization-peaceful-expression-india

A Sedition Law that was, ironically enough, created by the colonial British Raj to arrest and silence any Indians that dared to speak of Indian democracy.

Now the Sedition Law is used to intimidate the press, the opposition, and the common voter.

https://www.epw.in/engage/article/sedition-india-colonial-legacy-misuse-and-effect

The same Modi who, when meeting Barack Obama for the first time wore a tailor made suit with his own name emblazoned hundreds of times as pinstripes.

https://www.bbc.com/news/blogs-news-from-elsewhere-30981763

His ego is only surpassed by his self promotion and India’s claim as the “world’s largest democracy” is , sadly, slipping into just another autocracy of religious populism with Modi pulling all the strings……

#96 Shalimar on 04.18.22 at 12:55 am

#95 Crowd. You overlook the thousand year murderous Islamic Moghul terror campaign against Hindus going back and forth across the Hindu Kush ( literally ‘Hindu Killer). Muslims built that temple on the ground where an ancient Hindu temple once stood before being torn apart by rampaging Muslims. According to Koran a mosque once built on foreign land is a symbol of sacred jihad victory to never to be relinquished . Given the history of Islam in India it’s surprising to anyone who knows the history how successive benevolent Hindu political regimes over the past hundreds of years post-raj have allowed Islam to remain. That Modi has managed the worlds largest democracy without a Trudeau style coup is a miracle.