Lift-off

Pop.

And that was the wee sound that reverberated across an anxious nation. The central bank has doubled its benchmark interest rates. The chartered banks are upping all their charges. The monetary bosses are rolling billions off their bloated balance sheets. Bond yields will be travelling northwards. And you may never see a 2% five-year mortgage again. In fact, they’ll be five per cent soon. A day most home-lusty Millennials thought would never come.

But, here we are.

The Bank of Canada was crystal. Inflation is the enemy. Higher rates will slay it. So for the first time in 20 years, it moved a half-point, effectively (as mentioned) doubling its rate. We’re had hikes like this in the past, but never from such a low base (0.25%). Thus the impact of Wednesday’s action is outsized.

As this pathetic blog has been chronicling over past days, it’s already out there. The housing market is starting to freeze up. Some prices are dropping, Showings are seriously fewer. Multiple offers are turning into singles or doubles. Inventory is piling up. Human nature is clicking in.

FOMO is rapidly becoming FOOP. Three months ago the homeless kiddos worried about being priced out, and rushed in to buy. Now the fear is of overpaying. A falling knife. That’s why sales will drop along with prices. It’s human nature, baby. Buy higher, shun lower.

Well, the central bankers are being uncharacteristically hardass, admitting now that the cost of living has spiralled beyond immediate control. Not only has the benchmark rate jumped, but we’ve entered an era of “quantitative tightening” which is the exact opposite of the easy-money policy ushered in during Covid (and actually since the credit crisis of 2009). This starts in 12 days.

In justifying its inflation failure, the bank (in part) blames Putin:

Russia’s ongoing invasion of Ukraine is causing unimaginable human suffering and new economic uncertainty. Price spikes in oil, natural gas and other commodities are adding to inflation around the world. Supply disruptions resulting from the war are also exacerbating ongoing supply constraints and weighing on activity. These factors are the primary drivers of a substantial upward revision to the Bank’s outlook for inflation in Canada.

Now the important things to remember are (a) the chartered bank primes are going up to 3.2%. (b) Variable-rate mortgages, HELOC and lines of credit costs, plus corporate loans also rise immediately. (c) Credit card increases come soon. (d) Five-year, fixed-rate mortgages will cross 4% everywhere with a few weeks. (e) This is not the end. It’s the beginning.

The central bank has made a point of saying inflation is unlikely to be corralled until sometime two years (maybe) three years from now. So, “the Bank will use its monetary policy tools to return inflation to target and keep inflation expectations well-anchored.”

This, therefore, is the key message for real estate sellers, buyers and those poor folks who succumbed to herd instinct and bought in the last 12 months, especially in Bunnypatch:

With the economy moving into excess demand and inflation persisting well above target, the Governing Council judges that interest rates will need to rise further. The policy interest rate is the Bank’s primary monetary policy instrument, and quantitative tightening will complement increases in the policy rate. The timing and pace of further increases in the policy rate will be guided by the Bank’s ongoing assessment of the economy and its commitment to achieving the 2% inflation target.

Big news, especially for anyone born after 1990. Rates have not gone up this much or this fast since that decade, and never before has the benchmark rate doubled in a single move. The consequences of this bump up from an historic low level at a time when household debt is off-the-chart nutso may be deep. Combined with the aggressive bond-dumping, it means significant mortgage cost increases lie ahead and a potentially seismic impact on housing.

It’s also happening, as mentioned yesterday, as governments act to smother the property market with layers of new restrictions and taxes. Look at last week’s budget. There’s good reason to believe we’ve been let down. The guardians of our money misjudged inflation and allowed it bolt. Now rates must swell. And the trustees of our rules and laws turned a blind eye to housing lust, debt and speculation until it was too late to correct.

You may not believe the coming impact of these mistakes. But you should not forget it.

About the picture: “Last time I wrote you 2008 we were in dire straights,” writes Holland. “You posted my story, soooo much support in the comment section. From almost losing our home, I have learned a lot. Today we are mortgage free, own our home, happy.  Thank you. Family and friends pulled us through, kindness, positivity etc.  The world is missing that.  Also here’s a picture of our little girl Bailey, she’s a Whoodle, way too smart though.  We feel she is training us vs we training her.”

204 comments ↓

#1 Richard L on 04.13.22 at 10:47 am

Macklem finally showed some backbone. Better late then never I guess.

#2 sean on 04.13.22 at 10:49 am

Rates uppa, uppa!

#3 LH on 04.13.22 at 10:54 am

7 years of fat to be followed by 7 years of lean?
The extra low variable rates of the past several years were a chance to save extra and invest. Now, prepaying mortgages may be wiser (and certainly lower risk) than chasing the stock market higher. But I will never sell my BRK.A nor C01/C02 SFHs.

#4 crowdedelevatorfartz on 04.13.22 at 11:00 am

On November 10, 1942, Winston Churchill said this: “Now this is not the end. It is not even the beginning of the end. But it is, perhaps, the end of the beginning.”

We still have a long way to go to slay the housing dragon

#5 DON on 04.13.22 at 11:01 am

#121 DON on 04.13.22 at 10:59 am
#117 Quintilian on 04.13.22 at 10:00 am
#93 DON on 04.12.22 at 10:10 pm
“RE and construction can sustain GDP growth for years to come and keep the gravy train flowing.”

No, it cannot Don.

In fact, RE at such elevated costs loaded on, disproportionately, to people who would otherwise have a high propensity to spend at family formation time of their lives, is a drag on the economy.

Up to now it has been papered over with negative interest rates and debt. But it’s like rust, you can paint over it, and it will appear ok for a while.
Tick Tock, Tick Tock.

***************

I think you got mixed up…I didn’t say that. The other guy did.

#6 Meh on 04.13.22 at 11:03 am

Far too little, far too slowly and far too late. 1 percent means nothing on the broad scale, when real inflation is at least 18 percent with the crooks at the Fed still printing money and toying with a laughable .25 percent prime rate, their actions are what matters globally. Canadian real estate has blasted upward with rates far higher than this in the past 15 years.

Several 1 percent hikes are needed, almost monthly, stock markets and assets be damned. They will recover in a far more orderly manner after the real medicine is administered. Inflation is killing us now like stage 4 cancer. Slowly treating it at a snails pace is ridiculous. Blaming any of this on Russia and the Ukraine is insulting and gives the banking retiles a way out from real increases and actions. Claiming that rates doubled from almost nothing to begin with, is gaslighting in top gear.

It is common knowledge that prime rates must be set higher than real inflation in order to be remedied. Or are we all smarter than Paul Volcker now?

#7 Zappush on 04.13.22 at 11:20 am

RE buyer beware anxiety due to Putin ….. could this be a case of “Caviar Emptor”…I’m here all week, try the veal….

#8 Doug t on 04.13.22 at 11:25 am

another .5 coming up fingers crossed

#9 B on 04.13.22 at 11:29 am

Get ready to vulch. Tik tok.

The rate plays a big part, but FOOP is what’s going to drive a correction. Once the media starts writing articles about “Increasing Rates” or “Housing Slow Down” that’s when it starts. When friends and family who know nothing about finance/economics start mentioning these things, you will know it’s the beginning. CBC has to reprogram our thoughts first, then the fallout starts.

#10 Linda on 04.13.22 at 11:31 am

‘Holland’ has joined the many pet ‘owners’ who have discovered that humans are the ones being trained! Bailey simply is fulfilling her role as a responsible human guardian:)

‘Pop’ indeed. Also a heads up that inflation numbers are going to remain higher than anticipated, at least by the powers that be. Those of us who have been purchasing goods or services have long since been aware that costs have increased far beyond the official inflation numbers being posted. At a conservative estimate I’d say true inflation is currently running at 8%. That is best case scenario with lots of fairy dust & unicorn poop thrown in!

#11 Ballingsford on 04.13.22 at 11:34 am

We were in deep trouble quite a while before the war started. Not fair to blame that.

#12 Decel on 04.13.22 at 11:56 am

Finally, they didn’t wimp out.

Imo they should have .25 back in Dec, then .50 since the start of the year, but better not-too-late than never.

Question: Given that inflation is >8% in the US but only >5% here, how does it impact -if any- in the CB Rate strategies? IE: would BdC chase/match the FED if the FED raises the rate to the 2.75-3% level? Wouldn’t that be overkill for us?

#13 Sail Away on 04.13.22 at 11:58 am

#111 crowdedelevatorfartz on 04.13.22 at 8:18 am
@#105 Never Give Up

“Haha. I’m way ahead of you on that one. I would never allow any of my sons to go to any war.”

———

While I agree that all wars are the ultimate vanity project for incompetent leadership…

Perhaps you should google compulsory conscription.
It’s not up to you.
The govt has the final say.

I’m sure a large percentage of the fighting age men in Ukraine don’t want to die in a useless war.
They dodnt have a choice.

Any male over the age of 18 could not leave the country.
Now that Russia has regrouped and put a ruthless General in charge of the “blitzkrieg”…..

———

Conscription, schmunscription. If your country is attacked, you fight.

Take your due from the country, but always be ready to pay it back.

#14 Steven Rowlandson on 04.13.22 at 12:10 pm

Rather ballsy but the governments deserve the interest rate pressure on their extreme and extraordinary debts…

Keep jacking uprates until the politicos see virtue in thrift and debt repayment.

#15 Søren Angst on 04.13.22 at 12:20 pm

You normally make me wait until 2130h to 2200h CET for your Blog.

Il Blog e Pronto oggi?

1810h CET.

——-

I know why (again quoting Cdn RE diseased fanatics):

uppa, uppa, uppa

Good for you Garth.

You warned. Few listened. You have your vindication.

And a well written vindication it is.

Agreed, more to come this year.

#16 None on 04.13.22 at 12:34 pm

I needed this.

My relationship this past year failed because an ultimatum was dropped: “Buy a house now or our relationship is over”.

It was terribly difficult to say no to someone I loved so much. Any way you slice it, with the future being so uncertain, buying a house this year, at least from a financial view: “extreme risk, little reward”.

Saying good bye to the love of my life because I cared about her long term financial well being (and mine) was one of the hardest things I’ve had to do in my life.

I miss her every day.

#17 Søren Angst on 04.13.22 at 12:34 pm

The guardians of our money misjudged inflation and allowed it bolt.

And the trustees of our rules and laws turned a blind eye to housing lust, debt and speculation until it was too late to correct.

– Garth

——————-

As concise as can be about the BoC and Gov Canada vis-à-vis Inflation and Cdn RE prices.

THAT WAS GOOD:

⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐

Houston, we have…

🚀

#18 willworkforpickles on 04.13.22 at 12:37 pm

“The Bank of Canada was crystal. Inflation is the enemy. Higher rates will slay it.”
…………………………………………….

There is not even the slightest chance higher rates , those minuscule rate hikes proposed over the next two years will come close or do anything near slaying the inflation beast .
No matter how crystal the BoC is about it. Governments and the Central banks are the real enemies who let debt and inflation get this far. Far enough it can’t be reversed.

Its time the world at large , this world here at home … came to realize sooner rather than later (as they actually will, but unfortunately won’t until much later)… that such infinitesimal rate hikes won’t halt inflation – but in fact serve to do the opposite and actually add to more coming inflation.
Far too little and way too late and what’s to come of it is what the BoC and the Fed are doing and all they can do leading the gullible masses under their spell to the economic calamity that awaits in a few short years.

………………………………………………………………………….

“The central bank has made a point of saying inflation is unlikely to be corralled until sometime two years (maybe) three years from now. So, “the Bank will use its monetary policy tools to return inflation to target and keep inflation expectations well-anchored.”
……………………………………………………………………………..Too Too Funny!
Don’t believe a single word of it!

…but for those who do
This short message should self destruct within a couple of seconds in the minds of those who put their faith in the Fed as they won’t grasp any of this or will ever want to.

#19 Balmuto on 04.13.22 at 12:37 pm

Don’t forget there will be some FOMO to buy with soon-to-expire pre-approved (lower) rates. But once the supply of those buyers have been exhausted, prices should go down from there. You would think.

#20 Warren-the-lagging_indicator on 04.13.22 at 12:37 pm

Well that is a relief. Do you think they really thought that it was transitory or were they lying? Do they view lying as a policy tactic or something? If so, then how do these people expect others to believe the words they utter?

#21 willworkforpickles on 04.13.22 at 12:40 pm

“FOMO is rapidly becoming FOOP.”
…………………………………………………
…and that will be followed with steady and gnawing FOLE.

#22 Observer on 04.13.22 at 12:43 pm

#16 None on 04.13.22 at 12:34 pm
I needed this.

My relationship this past year failed because an ultimatum was dropped: “Buy a house now or our relationship is over”.

It was terribly difficult to say no to someone I loved so much. Any way you slice it, with the future being so uncertain, buying a house this year, at least from a financial view: “extreme risk, little reward”.

Saying good bye to the love of my life because I cared about her long term financial well being (and mine) was one of the hardest things I’ve had to do in my life.

I miss her every day.

^^^^^^^^^^^^^

Sorry to hear this “None”. But maybe she really wasn’t the love of your life if she left you for that reason. Perhaps you dodged not just one bullet but two.

#23 Søren Angst on 04.13.22 at 12:50 pm

#13 Sail Away

Your damn rights on the “If your country is attacked, you fight.”

How the Russian “blitzkrieg”….. General is doing:

https://twitter.com/bsant54/status/1514283472654848002

19,600 dead.

Multiply by 3 for casualties (dead, maimed, injured so they can fight no longer).

Why Russia is recruiting 60,000.

#24 Squire on 04.13.22 at 12:50 pm

Canadian’s would rather eat KD than take a hit on the sale of their property. Don’t expect prices to come down much. Seen it before. We have a strange obsession with home ownership at all costs.

#25 BigAl (Original) on 04.13.22 at 12:55 pm

New Zealand central bank also increased today by 0.5%. Their rate now stands at 1.5%.
Why has Australia been holding their rate at 0.10% for so long?
Same overpriced housing issues between us and them.

#26 Dogman01 on 04.13.22 at 12:55 pm

From one viewpoint , our Ruling Class, the Guardians of our money, governance; peace order good government etc have been shown to have poor judgement and are incompetent. However that viewpoint assumes they are working for the interests of Canadians , “the middle class and those working hard to join it™”

However if you look at it from a different viewpoint, that the goal is to lower the general standard of living over a generation and bring Canada closer to a “world Standard of living”. Create a dependent, divided and compliant population, all the while empowering a set of “Oligarchs” to maintain their wealth, privilege and autonomy.

So are the most successful people in our society’s hierarchy truly incompetent nincompoops or are they savvy cunning sociopaths?

#27 CBs communique in chronological order on 04.13.22 at 12:56 pm

1. There is no inflation

2. There’s some minor temporary inflation

3. The inflation is permanent but it’s a good thing

4. PUTIN invented inflation*

*Until Feb 24 the word Putin was replaced by the word Covid.

Note: WESTERN GOVTS ARE NOT THE AUTHORS OF INFLATION. IT’S EITHER PUTIN OR THE VIRUS

LMAO…ALL THE WAY TO THE GOLD HELD BY
CHINA AND RUSSIA

#28 Søren Angst on 04.13.22 at 1:02 pm

#16 None

Sad as that is, you got your

vindication

today as well.

Fanatics cannot be reasoned with. Good guiding principles are the font of reason.

#29 Doug in London on 04.13.22 at 1:02 pm

@None, post #16:
I’d miss such a fool like that about as much as I would miss being burned alive. You made a wise choice and that’s all there is to it.

#30 Ponzius Pilatus on 04.13.22 at 1:08 pm

#20 Warren-the-lagging_indicator on 04.13.22 at 12:37 pm
Well that is a relief. Do you think they really thought that it was transitory or were they lying? Do they view lying as a policy tactic or something? If so, then how do these people expect others to believe the words they utter?
———————————-
It was transitory.
And then Putin put the fork in the turkey.
Myself, still not feel any inflation.
No car, mortgage fixed, hamburger instead of steak.
Price of oats is unchanged.
So regular stool is guaranteed.
Yeah, call me selfish.
I call it being prepared.
Would not wanna be stuck with a variable mortgage, now.

#31 Captain Uppa on 04.13.22 at 1:09 pm

Good.

We need rate increases and we need the RE market back in line where MAYBE young professionals who want to start a family dare own their own home.

It’s better for society.

One question, Garth: your oft quoted boy, Ron Butler, says variable is still the best way to go. Interesting. I am still learning a lot from all of you.

#32 Prince Polo on 04.13.22 at 1:09 pm

Interest rates and real estate induced anxiety going uppa, uppa, UPPA!

#33 Søren Angst on 04.13.22 at 1:10 pm

Markets roaring back today as of Apr 13, 1:04:42 PM UTC-4.

Nasdaq +1.78%
Dow +0.71%
S&P 500 +0.89%

As for my “yeah oil”

+1.71-1.75%
[keeps on ticking]

Sort of yeah my Maple

+0.14%
[not bad considering today’s BoC rate hike]

All this recession talk.

Not seeing it yet.

#34 Soviet Capitalist on 04.13.22 at 1:10 pm

Will this significantly affect only the speculators with 20 houses or those with only 10 as well?

#35 willworkforpickles on 04.13.22 at 1:11 pm

“Well, the central bankers are being uncharacteristically hardass,”
…………………………………………………

I said this months ago in my comments that they would. And that the banks win big time either way and don’t care about you.
That fell on deaf ears .

A lot of commenter’s are beginning to speak in the manner i did a year / 18 months ago here, all of it shunned . Shunned for making projections of what’s to come , but projections I did post on much research digging for the answers hidden between the lines/lies.
The answers to what’s to come are out there if you learn and know how to find them.
Those who consistently say no one can ever know what’s coming, don’t have a clue where or how to find those hidden answers to begin with. They will go on saying no one can know what’s coming…all to justify their inability of finding the answers for themselves.

…and its all good in a free country to say what you want , no problemo

#36 Old Ron on 04.13.22 at 1:25 pm

1% interest rate that will slay the Dragon called inflation. LOL

Using the old metrics inflation has been double digits for more than a year. Old Tiff has a long way to go. In this inflationary environment the Prime should be closer to 4%. A recession is coming anyhow Tiff, just pull off the bandaid and get it over with.

#37 Stock Market Speculator on 04.13.22 at 1:25 pm

Maybe savers won’t get crushed, GIC rates will moon again and the BOC will introduce a new CSB issue. Ya know like the old days. It can’t be all so bleak, geezus!

#38 What Could Go Worse? on 04.13.22 at 1:26 pm

I am old enough to remember the last time the GTA market collapse, 17% renewals on mortgage rates and what the Real Estate pumpers were preaching.

What we are seeing and feeling, today, sounds eerily familiar.

Yet these 3 to 4 hundred thousand immigrants, which I support, are going to keep housing prices and demand high. 30% of young immigrants are leaving or plan to leave. Why? The high cost is living is the number 1 reason.

Guess what, most of these immigrants are not multi millionaires, most come to Canada to seek a better life. And more power to them.

HEADLINE FROM RE/MAX Feb 8th 2022

Toronto Housing Market NOT in a Bubble, Says Bank of Canada

#39 OK, Doomer on 04.13.22 at 1:27 pm

#16 None on 04.13.22 at 12:34 pm
I needed this.

My relationship this past year failed because an ultimatum was dropped: “Buy a house now or our relationship is over”.

It was terribly difficult to say no to someone I loved so much. Any way you slice it, with the future being so uncertain, buying a house this year, at least from a financial view: “extreme risk, little reward”.

Saying good bye to the love of my life because I cared about her long term financial well being (and mine) was one of the hardest things I’ve had to do in my life.

I miss her every day.
++++++++++++++++++++++

Sorry to hear that also. It always amazes me that people like your significant other will take financial advice from their financially illiterate friends, but shun advice from people who can do math.

All I can think of is confirmation bias leading to an extreme case of cognitive dissonance.

Best of luck.

#40 Sail Away on 04.13.22 at 1:27 pm

#123 NEVER GIVE UP on 04.13.22 at 12:13 pm
#108 Sail Away on 04.13.22 at 6:54 am
#105 NEVER GIVE UP on 04.13.22 at 12:16 am

Haha. I’m way ahead of you on that one. I would never allow any of my sons to go to any war.

———

You should definitely pass along your high-minded sentiments to Ukraine, including the part about not allowing your sons to go to any war.

Zelenskyy will nod slowly and understandingly… before kicking you in the nads.

———

HAHA. Yeah I already thought this through a long time ago. Long before my kids were of conscription age.

Essentially what they are fighting for in any war is Land and Material possessions, and a Way of life.

If you can separate yourself from the need for these things you can be free to move to another peaceful spot on earth. That would be me. I had this discussion with a German born friend last week. We agree that one should have left Ukraine or any similar battle prone area as soon as it becomes unstable. Not wait for tanks to rumble through the streets.
And no I am not a pacifist I would pick up a gun if I was caught in a war zone. I just think for the good of my family that the best move would be to leave any conflict zone to those who value their homes and social structure more than I do. I have little patriotism. A tinge for Canada maybe. For the western world as a whole, a little more. If all hell breaks loose you can drop me a line in Argentina.
As far as my home and cars and possessions etc. I could just walk away and live just as well in a Nipa Hut in the Philippines.
I view the actual combatants in wars as suckers who were used by demagogues who sit in comfortable buildings directing the war. Of course I appreciate their sacrifice but in the end it was just to protect wealth and power.
Think of it this way.
What if the Ukrainians let the Russians walk in and change the Government. When the tanks roll in they wave at the soldiers and the soldiers say to themselves, there is no one to fight?!
The Ukrainians would lose some of their freedom and would live under Oligarchy rule. They would not have lost their homes and factories and 30K lives so far.
This may have been a better outcome because they were not a strong enough nation to be so fortified that the Russians would not have attacked. The Ukrainians were working hard on that problem but didn’t have enough time.
Anyway my values are much different than many or most. I just would not stick around a war zone. Would any of you willingly send your kids off to war?

———

You should definitely pass along your smugly self-important sentiments to the Jews.

They may nod slowly and understandingly… before kicking you firmly and repeatedly in the nads.

#41 not true garth on 04.13.22 at 1:29 pm

The only person responsible for these so called mistakes is Vladimir Putin for his failed war and genocide in Ukraine. Trump shares equal blame for his failure to solve the COVID crisis and allow Russia to run free for 4 years.

To blame Canadian politicians is a smear.

#42 Senator Bluto on 04.13.22 at 1:37 pm

#24 Squire on 04.13.22 at 12:50 pm
Canadian’s would rather eat KD than take a hit on the sale of their property. Don’t expect prices to come down much. Seen it before. We have a strange obsession with home ownership at all costs.
))))))

Can I assume that you also sat in steerage proclaiming that interest rates can never go up??

Let me tell you how it also plays out:

1. Interest rates go up
2. Buyers offer stink bids.
3. Your desperate neighbor takes the stink bid
4. Neighborhood comparables take a dump
5. The bank sees that your neighborhood got shwacked.
6. The bank calls you and tells you to pony up another $50k on your HELOC.
7. You don’t have $50K, so the bank says “TFB. Sell your house and pay it all back now.”

You might be OK living on KD, but the bank doesn’t care.

#43 Summertime on 04.13.22 at 1:39 pm

Central ‘bankers’ will ‘fight’ inflation of 15 % that they created themselves with 1 % rates?

The Canadian ‘CPI number’ of 6 % is insulting to any intelligence. What exactly increased by only 6 % since last year?

Shawn could you provide a list, please?

It is all some and mirrors and inflation is here to stay.

By the time they increase the rates to 2 % it would be cumulative inflation of 30 % +

#44 Summertime on 04.13.22 at 1:39 pm

It is all smoke and mirrors and inflation is here to stay.

#45 45north on 04.13.22 at 1:47 pm

Squire Canadians would rather eat KD than take a hit on the sale of their property. Don’t expect prices to come down much. Seen it before. We have a strange obsession with home ownership at all costs.

there’s about $250 billion in HELOCs outstanding in Canada

and payments just doubled

question: how many real estate transactions are associated with one HELOC? We’re looking at a house of cards.

#46 Bonobo on 04.13.22 at 1:50 pm

Many on this board here hated and criticized Trump but at least North America became energy independent before the last US election.

Trump predicted $7.00 per gallon gas if Biden came to power and this is what happened.

The tragedy in Ukraine could have been avoided if we had remained energy independent of countries like Russia.

Now the Tom Fool enviro greenpeace minister is approving a massive oil project off the coast of NFLD. What a crock of rancid hypocricy!

Why don’t you approve Keystone XL and Energy East?

The result of all this is worsening inflation and higher interest rates with no end in sight!

Bring back the Trump policies for the US and Canada and let’s get back to normalcy! Tough boobies if you can’t handle his means tweets which I hope will be returning soon if Elon Musk does the right thing. If possible bring back Trump in the USA to coincide with the leadership of Pierre P. in Canada in 2025.

Are you lot happy now for what is going on now?

My fervent and deepest wish is that Liberal and NDP supporters are affected the most be all of this and that you will come to your senses about your future and your children’s future. Climate change is a joke. Ask Barak Obama why he bought a $15 million mansion at sea level in Hawaii if rising sea levels are such and issue for the lefties.

Alberta rant is over now but I could say a lot more…

#47 jess on 04.13.22 at 1:53 pm

..”While their parents publicly rail against the West, their kids grow up in the very countries whose societies they claim to reject.”
It would seem that these sheltered /gated kids with the lux lifestyles suddenly turned patriotic when the threat of their allowance is cut off. A few branded purses cut up online will change nothing

“A kleptocracy is merely a government that is ruled by thieves,”

#48 Billy Buoy on 04.13.22 at 1:57 pm

Yea! They raised rates! You got it right this time!

Congrats! You are batting.500 now.

1 more than it’s done.

Relax house lovers, if they were really serious the rate hike would have been 5% plus to catch up with inflation.

#49 T Rex and the dinosaur clique on 04.13.22 at 1:58 pm

So here is an interesting excerpt (from the Globe):

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/politics/article-data-backs-up-younger-voters-excitement-over-poilievre/

“Mr. Poilievre’s main challenger, former Quebec premier Jean Charest, maintains that no politician openly identifying, as Mr. Poilievre did, with the protesters who illegally occupied downtown Ottawa in January can lead a political party. “It disqualifies you, as far as I’m concerned,” he told Evan Solomon on CTV.”

This position is openly accepted by the writer of the editorial piece:

“From this desk, Mr. Charest is right on both counts.”

So the position from the old political establishment, and also from the MSM, is that if someone supported the now banned trucker protests, they should be disqualified from participating in Federal Politics.

Sort of like someone who disagreed with an uprising in China should be banned from politics for life?

Or someone in Venezuela who did not agree with socialism…..

Is our MSM, and our old political establishment actually suggesting that people should be banned from politics based on their political views and perceived loyalties?

Is this a good message to send to our youth? You support the wrong views, and so your candidate will be banned. Please tune in to the proper mainstream thought and correct your thoughts, thank you!

Folks who cannot purchase a home, whose purchasing power is being eroded by rampant inflation, who watch as a political elite makes use of a media elite, to actually craft the message that we receive, almost like propaganda?

And if the young folks disagree and are able to notice that something is rotten in the State of Denmark, the elites try to ban their candidate?

Oh this is getting juicy. How many times in Canadian history has their been an attempt to actually prevent someone from running for office, because the person does not have “mainstream views”?

Grabbing the popcorn on this one. Looks like heads are going to start to roll…….

#50 tkid on 04.13.22 at 2:11 pm

There are reports that Russia is moving military equipment towards Finland, including missile launchers.

“May you live in interesting times.”

#51 Dr V on 04.13.22 at 2:14 pm

21 Pickles – FOLE? Fear of losing equity??

#52 ElGatoNeroYVR on 04.13.22 at 2:16 pm

#102 Ronaldo on 04.12.22 at 11:27 pm
Sorry for revealing you but after 14 years on this blog and protecting you guys, (my sons are both GenXers too) I decided it was time. Anyway, your generation was known as the latch key kids because as with my sons, both their parents worked and you came home to an empty house. That was actually a good thing because you all became self reliant and probably very successful in life as with both my sons. Please tell me you did well for yourself because unlike some today, you had plenty of opportunity to do so.
===========
Very true , we learned to rely on ourselves and not expect to be guided and looked and fought hard for any opportunity.Yes I personally cannot complain at all ,came here with basically nothing and very basic English less than 30 years ago and getting to retire next year or 2 the most.
I have friends who did well and some who didnˋt ,those that accepted the society and the work place environment as is and adapted instead of trying to be change warriors are in the same boat as me or better, the other ones not so much.

#53 Mike S on 04.13.22 at 2:18 pm

Garth

My current LL will renew our lease for 2 years (come July).

I could rally about 400k for a down payment (350k in investments, the remainder is cash, yes I know, too much cash haha) – I could also probably access the bank of mom.

Do I take the 2? change to 1? in hopes of a melt down in 1 year?

I have a partner, no kids, 140k combined salary. There is no debt in the household, except the monthly bills. We live in Milton.

I realize this is not the full picture, but would like to hear your opinion.

cheers,

#54 Brett in Calgary on 04.13.22 at 2:28 pm

I suspect rate hikes will impact inflated assets more than inflated (structural issues) supplies. Stagflation be on us.

#55 XEQT and chill on 04.13.22 at 2:29 pm

I haven’t heard from the “The Government won’t allow prices to fall – it would hurt too many Canadians” crowd in a while.

#56 Mr Fox on 04.13.22 at 2:41 pm

It’s funny how humans behave. It’s not about how much suffering you inflict on yourself (by buying or not) but how cool you look in the eyes of your friends.
When houses go up, you’ll see your friends feeling like geniuses that made a fortune (unrealized but still). But when someone buys at the peak, you’ll never hear them accept their mistakes.
For most, it’s all a d!#k measuring contest.

#57 cramar on 04.13.22 at 2:46 pm

#16 None on 04.13.22 at 12:34 pm

I needed this.

My relationship this past year failed because an ultimatum was dropped: “Buy a house now or our relationship is over”.

It was terribly difficult to say no to someone I loved so much. Any way you slice it, with the future being so uncertain, buying a house this year, at least from a financial view: “extreme risk, little reward”.

Saying good bye to the love of my life because I cared about her long term financial well being (and mine) was one of the hardest things I’ve had to do in my life.

I miss her every day.

——————

This is terrible! I feel for you. But, anyone who chooses owning a house over their sole-mate for life, is sending a message. They were not really going to be your sole-mate for life.

The pain will fade and hopefully you will find someone less materialistic and more interested in the deeper things of life—you and not a house.

#58 Summertime on 04.13.22 at 2:56 pm

The really funny part was about BOC doing QT, i.e. selling bonds and MBS from their balance sheet that yield zero with inflation 15 % and 12 digits federal deficit for this year.

#59 willworkforpickles on 04.13.22 at 3:05 pm

#45 Dr V

Fear of losing Everything….but fear of losing equity may suffice before that for many as well.

Not being able to cover payments and looming bankruptcy has been hell for many in the past and will be again..

#60 willworkforpickles on 04.13.22 at 3:10 pm

…sorry … Dr V @#51 … not 45

#61 Ballingsford on 04.13.22 at 3:15 pm

#16 None on 04.13.22 at 12:34 pm
I needed this.

My relationship this past year failed because an ultimatum was dropped: “Buy a house now or our relationship is over”.

****
You should’ve chosen love over common sense and advice.

You’ve missed out on a lifetime of misery.

#62 Glengarry Girl on 04.13.22 at 3:17 pm

I’m so excited, I can’t wait for this show to get on the road. The signs of the top of the Bubble have been going on for longer than I could imagine. Canada sure blew the top off of any standard economical housing bubble chart. I have been waiting patiently, looking for the signs, having to listen to all of the untruths without reacting or upsetting people “it’s different this time” “housing will only go up because of immigration” “if you don’t buy in now, you’ll never get in” “Interest rates can’t be raised because it will crash the economy”
You know the correction is here is when the fear and helplessness is felt by all, the owner, the buyer and the renter.
The sad stories of renters being evicted because owners are itching to renovate and sell. Owners left in a situation because the renter won’t leave and they sold the house and the new owners are suing them. Owner in Markham who took loan against his SFH that he’s had for 15 years. He can’t pay, he didn’t understand the terms, and he’s broke. Then there will be all those new houses built and amateur flippers during this boom have mostly been build cheaply and corners have been cut.
Next comes all of the For Sale Signs and they aren’t removed, by the Fall they will look weathered. Next the rents start to come down as reluctant landlords have to rent their houses because they still believe they are worth more than they are. Parents that funded their kids house horny purchases will have both generations learning a lesson with losses. Arrogance of home “owners” turns to fear and dread as contagion sets in. Oh and the real estate agent will no longer be glorified. Many will be looking for a different career, I recommend property management. There are so many Signs, I’m sure many of us will be sharing experiences and stories as this comes apart.

#63 Boomer Life on 04.13.22 at 3:20 pm

Well, we kept saying that Boomers had it so great.

Now we have rapidly escalating rates and a cold war 2.0. It is back to the 70s/80s baby.

Guess we should be careful what we wish for…

#64 NEVER GIVE UP on 04.13.22 at 3:26 pm

#13 Sail Away on 04.13.22 at 11:58 am
#111 crowdedelevatorfartz on 04.13.22 at 8:18 am
@#105 Never Give Up

“Haha. I’m way ahead of you on that one. I would never allow any of my sons to go to any war.”

———

While I agree that all wars are the ultimate vanity project for incompetent leadership…

Perhaps you should google compulsory conscription.
It’s not up to you.
The govt has the final say.

I’m sure a large percentage of the fighting age men in Ukraine don’t want to die in a useless war.
They dodnt have a choice.

Any male over the age of 18 could not leave the country.
Now that Russia has regrouped and put a ruthless General in charge of the “blitzkrieg”…..

———

Conscription, schmunscription. If your country is attacked, you fight.

Take your due from the country, but always be ready to pay it back.
===================================

Try taking a moment to think very carefully about what it means to send your son or daughter to war. I mean really think about it. How about the letter you receive first informing you that your son is dead.

My Grandmother received such a letter in 1945. Most of the kids went to that war because the propaganda posters promised a free trip to Europe filled with adventure. “See the world” they said. All the peasants children ran down to sign up.
In Europe there was no choice but to go. It was a noble war. Right against wrong in our minds anyway. The other side thought they were right.
The French wisely built the Maginot line and deterred the Germans except for one little place in the Ardennes. This is where readiness and the seriousness of war took a back seat. Where good leadership could have prevented war. Good diplomacy as well. Sadly there is no hiding place from madmen. You have to be in front with the biggest weapons and strike fear in their hearts before the bullets fly.
The Western World should Triple defense and diplomatic budgets as well as aid budgets to prevent war.
The human community could I would like to believe, end war and evolve.
What if alien ships parked in space near us. Would we fight each other for patches of land and power? Or would we unite.
We should work to bring Russia first and then China into NATO. Of course we may have to wait a long time for demagogues to die off and hope a good dictator comes in his place, It would be a long project not suited for our 4 year political process. It should be given to Career diplomats and Generals to actually have the power over that part of policy.
Until then, when I see our leaders really prepare and talk out problems with our enemies, I will move away from war zones. I have little trust in someone else making decisions over my children’s lives.

I don’t recognize borders, however they are a reality I deal with often. People think their passport makes them free but in reality Passports are tools of oppression.

Every person in the world I have met at street level is pretty much kind and friendly. Iran, Afghanistan, Syria, The nicest people you would want to ever meet. It is the madmen that rise to the top because of their aggressiveness in politics. Their willingness to win at all cost. Their willingness to Kill.

#65 Sail Away on 04.13.22 at 3:29 pm

Raising and lowering interest rates is best done the same way one steers a boat: Slowly and incrementally, since it takes some time for the effect to become clear.

#66 Squire on 04.13.22 at 3:31 pm

#57 cramar on 04.13.22 at 2:46 pm
#16 None on 04.13.22 at 12:34 pm

I needed this.

My relationship this past year failed because an ultimatum was dropped: “Buy a house now or our relationship is over”.

It was terribly difficult to say no to someone I loved so much. Any way you slice it, with the future being so uncertain, buying a house this year, at least from a financial view: “extreme risk, little reward”.

Saying good bye to the love of my life because I cared about her long term financial well being (and mine) was one of the hardest things I’ve had to do in my life.

I miss her every day.
————————————————–

You don’t really miss her. You miss the idea of her and you have likely dodged a bullet. Be thankful and move on. In a normal relationship there shouldn’t be those types of ultimatums.
Move on and don’t bring her up on future dates. It’s over !

#67 Squire on 04.13.22 at 3:36 pm

#42 Senator Bluto on 04.13.22 at 1:37 pm
#24 Squire on 04.13.22 at 12:50 pm
Canadian’s would rather eat KD than take a hit on the sale of their property. Don’t expect prices to come down much. Seen it before. We have a strange obsession with home ownership at all costs.
))))))

Can I assume that you also sat in steerage proclaiming that interest rates can never go up??

Let me tell you how it also plays out:

1. Interest rates go up
2. Buyers offer stink bids.
3. Your desperate neighbor takes the stink bid
4. Neighborhood comparables take a dump
5. The bank sees that your neighborhood got shwacked.
6. The bank calls you and tells you to pony up another $50k on your HELOC.
7. You don’t have $50K, so the bank says “TFB. Sell your house and pay it all back now.”

You might be OK living on KD, but the bank doesn’t care.

——————
No, not at all. Just my observation actually. But I agree with your points. I would personally rather rent than have a $500k mortgage.

#68 Nick on 04.13.22 at 3:39 pm

Update from lower Brainland:

Price are up still. People are still loving to pay $2M for rathouses in the dampland. So exciting.

#69 Doug in London on 04.13.22 at 3:43 pm

@Mr Fox, post #56:
Yes, and if prices drop and they have to sell at a loss to relocate for their job, or they can’t make payments they’ll blame the government.

#70 Shawn on 04.13.22 at 3:45 pm

Things are getting ugly. Tesla deliveries are way behind due to supply constraints.

#71 NEVER GIVE UP on 04.13.22 at 3:46 pm

#40 Sail Away on 04.13.22 at 1:27 pm

I guess your new handle should be…
“Ole Blood an Guts Sail Away”

We need guys like you…on the front lines.

I do appreciate that!

#72 Brutal on 04.13.22 at 3:52 pm

@None #16

“My relationship this past year failed because an ultimatum was dropped: “Buy a house now or our relationship is over…I miss her everyday.”

Why? She sounds like a freaking nightmare. You can do better.

#73 Sail Away on 04.13.22 at 3:52 pm

#16 None on 04.13.22 at 12:34 pm

My relationship this past year failed because an ultimatum was dropped: “Buy a house now or our relationship is over”.

I miss her every day.

——–

That’s unfortunate.

Luckily, you may be able to find a suitable replacement among the thousands of Ukrainian women currently on the way to Canada.

Or get a dog. Dogs only care about important things like pheasants and bacon.

#74 TalkingPie on 04.13.22 at 4:08 pm

Spouse and I just got a call from our mortgage broker today, as we’re up for renewal at the end of July and initiated the process a couple of months ago in anticipation of the coming rate hikes.

Just under the wire we were able to get a 4 year fixed at 2.89%. Broker described it as a “start the car and run” situation.

Last time around in 2018 we locked in at 3.24% just as rates were rising. We know how that turned out. We’ll see what happens this time around.

#75 Russ on 04.13.22 at 4:12 pm

cramar on 04.13.22 at 2:46 pm

#16 None on 04.13.22 at 12:34 pm

… Saying good bye to the love of my life because I cared about her long term financial well being (and mine) was one of the hardest things I’ve had to do in my life.

I miss her every day.

——————

This is terrible! I feel for you. But, anyone who chooses owning a house over their sole-mate for life, is sending a message.
They were not really going to be your sole-mate for life.

The pain will fade and hopefully you will find someone less materialistic and more interested in the deeper things of life—you and not a house.

=================================

Hey Cramar,

If #16 None really did find himself a sole-mate then we should not be surprised when she put the boots to him.

And we all need a little humour sometimes.

Cheers, R

#76 Al on 04.13.22 at 4:17 pm

It’s mean that the entire real estate market of the country will be in trouble for 2-3 years?

#77 Caffeine Monkey on 04.13.22 at 4:20 pm

One of the more interesting things about this is that we’ll soon find out if Canada is a super-duper special place where the normal relationship place where interest rates and property values don’t apply — as the long time real estate bulls maintain — or if Canada is just a regular place experiencing a regular real estate bubble. I bet the latter.

#78 Dogman01 on 04.13.22 at 4:25 pm

#49 T Rex and the dinosaur clique on 04.13.22 at 1:58 pm

The entire western ruling elite is on a campaign to reign in the population’s growing dissent. Censorship, “official media”. It is all very much 1984.
Keep the plebs focused on the approved enemy Eurasia and away from our ally Eastasia.

I can’t wait for the “Two Minute Hate”.

Western Dissent from US/NATO Policy on Ukraine is Small, Yet the Censorship Campaign is Extreme
https://greenwald.substack.com/p/western-dissent-from-usnato-policy?s=r

#79 Nonplused on 04.13.22 at 4:30 pm

Whatever it is Putin can be blamed for, the inflation isn’t it. It was already well out of control before the Ukraine thing.

Wars do cause inflation. But that is because they are almost always associated with money printing to pay for the war. Nobody goes to war with good money, they print it.

And now the media is prematurely declaring that “inflation has peaked!” What does that mean exactly? That instead of 8.5% we’re going to get 7.5%? It’s still uppita-up.

You’ll not see inflation managed back down to 2% for 5 years, is my guess, and the prime rate will be 5% when it happens, providing a real yield of 3%. Until then prepare to pay more for everything. And when inflation does settle down in that distant day, don’t expect prices to come back down. It will be a “new normal”.

1% interest rates are not going to do anything to curtail 8.5% inflation. The yield to buy things now instead of later, anything, is 7.5%.

Buy all the things. And ask for a 10% raise. You’re going to need it.

#80 crowdedelevatorfartz on 04.13.22 at 4:31 pm

@#16 None
“My relationship this past year failed because an ultimatum was dropped: “Buy a house now or our relationship is over”.”

++++

A ‘relationship” that was based on you buying a piece of Real Estate?
Sounds like a business transaction.
You dodged a bullet.
You would have eventually been split up AND without the real estate if you had purchased the “deal breaker”.

#81 Doug in London on 04.13.22 at 4:35 pm

@Bonobo, post #46:
Are you lot happy now for what is going on now?
———————————————————
No, I’m not just happy I’m ecstatic, bursting at the seams with joy, and dancing on the clouds! What’s happening now is AWESOME! These higher fuel prices are EXACTLY what we need to rethink how we use energy. Higher fuel prices will ultimately pave the way to reducing fossil fuel use which 1)will reduce carbon emissions, 2) put an end to this hopelessly inefficient car dependent urban sprawl which consumes prime agricultural land. That’s not a good idea for anyone who thinks food security might actually be a good idea. Also low density urban sprawl is expensive to maintain and is ultimately subsidized by owners and tenants in higher density development. Higher density is the way to go, and higher fuel prices are the prodding we need to build more of it. 3)Higher fuel prices will also help with the obesity epidemic because it encourages building of walkable communities rather than the depressing urban sprawl where you have to drive to get anywhere.

Higher fuel prices are EXACTLY what we need. Oil at $200 a barrel? Bring it on!!!!!!

#82 Quintilian on 04.13.22 at 4:38 pm

#65 Sail Away on 04.13.22 at 3:29 pm
“Raising and lowering interest rates is best done the same way one steers a boat: Slowly and incrementally, since it takes some time for the effect to become clear.”

You do realize with the output gap is actually negative or slightly a miniscule amount above, with the speed at which inflation is picking up, it may take years to get to the terminal rate.

#83 Ponzius Pilatus on 04.13.22 at 4:44 pm

#59 willworkforpickles on 04.13.22 at 3:05 pm
#45 Dr V

Fear of losing Everything….but fear of losing equity may suffice before that for many as well.

Not being able to cover payments and looming bankruptcy has been hell for many in the past and will be again..
——————–
“Freedom’s just another word for nothing left to lose”.
Get rid of your F-150.
And you’re on step closer to freedom.

#84 active on 04.13.22 at 4:45 pm

hahaha … i could give a rats a$$ about inflation or interest rate hikes….why?….cause having no debts whatsoever is so so SWEET!!! debt free baby!!! now all you clowns will learn the hard way that being overleveraged is just a killer….LMAO

#85 Ponzius Pilatus on 04.13.22 at 4:46 pm

#71 NEVER GIVE UP on 04.13.22 at 3:46 pm
#40 Sail Away on 04.13.22 at 1:27 pm

I guess your new handle should be…
“Ole Blood an Guts Sail Away”

We need guys like you…on the front lines.

I do appreciate that!
—————–
I agree, put him on the front lines.
Otherwise, stupid comment.

#86 jess on 04.13.22 at 4:52 pm

@49

https://www.thecanadianencyclopedia.ca/en/article/halibut-treaty

https://www.thecanadianencyclopedia.ca/en/article/statute-of-westminster
https://www.thecanadianencyclopedia.ca/en/article/statute-of-westminster-canadas-declaration-of-independence-feature

1957 cbc
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Aq7dERtOwj4

#87 Ponzius Pilatus on 04.13.22 at 4:58 pm

Putin is one sly fox.
He gambled on a fractured and indecisive NATO and EU.
Biden is getting more isolated.
He looks weak.
The right wing candidate for the French Presidency has already pledged support for Putin, if she wins.
Zelensky screwed up the little support he got from Germany by dissing the German President.
God save Ukraine.

#88 jess on 04.13.22 at 5:01 pm

someone’s porridge will always be just right
==================
Unfortunately, finding a CUSIP number for a stock can be a little difficult because the numbers are owned and created by the American Bankers Association and operated by Standard & Poor’s. To get access to the whole database of CUSIP numbers, you will need to pay a fee to Standard & Poor’s or a similar service that has access to the database.

https://www.investopedia.com/ask/answers/06/cusipforspecificstock.asp

#89 DON on 04.13.22 at 5:02 pm

#24 Squire on 04.13.22 at 12:50 pm
Canadian’s would rather eat KD than take a hit on the sale of their property. Don’t expect prices to come down much. Seen it before. We have a strange obsession with home ownership at all costs.

***********
When did you see that before?

#90 Ponzius Pilatus on 04.13.22 at 5:03 pm

#80 crowdedelevatorfartz on 04.13.22 at 4:31 pm
@#16 None
“My relationship this past year failed because an ultimatum was dropped: “Buy a house now or our relationship is over”.”

++++

A ‘relationship” that was based on you buying a piece of Real Estate?
Sounds like a business transaction.
You dodged a bullet.
You would have eventually been split up AND without the real estate if you had purchased the “deal breaker”.
——————-
You obviously don’t get the meaning of:
“Happy Wife, Happy Life”.
Real Estate Agents know that.
At Open Houses they always focus on the wife.
Kitchen first.
Man Cave way down the list.

#91 Bonobo on 04.13.22 at 5:06 pm

@ Doug in London #81

Higher fuel prices are EXACTLY what we need. Oil at $200 a barrel? Bring it on!!!!!!

====================================

Good for you Doug but you are delusional if you think O&G production and use will be ending anytime soon. Plus you sound like a 30 something disgruntled grocery store greenpeace sub-millenial.

You obviously don’t really care about your struggling fellow Canadian’s who are having a hard time to buy a home and put gas in their tanks and food on the table.

You think that everyone should just go out and buy a base $50k Tesla with limited range and take the bus or an Uber everywhere. Try doing that with 2-3 kids in tow.

Do you really think $200 per barrel will solve anything?

Get a grip.

#92 Smartalox on 04.13.22 at 5:15 pm

Oooh 0.5% hike!

I recall when I graduated University in the late 90s, my $28,000 in student loans had interest rates around 7 or 8%. Worked out to about $50,000 to pay them off over 10 years. I was one of the unfortunate cohort that had their government loans at the mercy of the chartered banks, in the 5 year period when the programs were handed to the big banks, and when the government recognized the error of its ways, as hundreds of unemployable grads declared bankruptcy on graduation, and took back control of the programs.

This rate hike is a feint. It’s intended to give the central bankers some room to cut back to ’emergency’ rates (0.75% to 0.25%) to give them something useful to do when the world slips into recession after Russia implodes, or nukes Ukraine. Or both.

If they were really worried about inflation, they’d have hiked rates a full 2% or more.

#93 Trojan House on 04.13.22 at 5:20 pm

#16 None on 04.13.22 at 12:34 pm

Too bad but you’re obviously going to be better off without her in the long run. It’s better than commenting on this blog saying that you went bankrupt and are eating out of a soup kitchen because your ex (that’s right, would still be ex) spent every last dime you had.

You’ll find someone new who shares the same values and you’ll be in a better place.

#94 TurnerNation on 04.13.22 at 5:20 pm

Supply Chain. Yes famines are man made (government-made). Ongoing takedown of the world?

[email protected] COVID-19 lockdowns imposed in Shanghai as well as in key manufacturing hubs & agricultural provinces in China could aggravate supply chain disruptions, cause food shortages, raise the price of agricultural products & restrict global manufacturing trade. #AfricasPulse

— There is no more news only the Manufacturing of consent.

Fact in 2021 it was announced Kanada signed contracts for does into 2024. What did you think the headlines would read into then?? This is one big machine, each part is playing its role.

.Canada’s vaccine advisory body strongly recommends boosters for all adults as virus resurges (cbc.ca)


— Science in Kanada. Almost over guys so close to normal! Say how long until your SFH is seized — for the less fortunate. For the Greater Good.

“Rights were violated for the greater good, Hinshaw tells court”
https://calgarysun.com/news/local-news/dr-deena-hinshaw-testifies-some-personal-freedoms-had-to-be-limited-in-order-to-protect-all-albertans-from-covid-19-threat/wcm/31773597-565e-4187-840d-38bf0512adc6

.U.S. renews COVID-19 public health emergency (reuters.com)
.Biden administration extends transportation mask mandate for 15 more days (cnbc.com)

.International travellers must wear a mask for 14 days after returning to Canada (toronto.citynews.ca)

#95 The West on 04.13.22 at 5:21 pm

#64 NEVER GIVE UP

AMEN

#96 DON on 04.13.22 at 5:28 pm

#92 Smartalox on 04.13.22 at 5:15 pm
Oooh 0.5% hike!

I recall when I graduated University in the late 90s, my $28,000 in student loans had interest rates around 7 or 8%. Worked out to about $50,000 to pay them off over 10 years. I was one of the unfortunate cohort that had their government loans at the mercy of the chartered banks, in the 5 year period when the programs were handed to the big banks, and when the government recognized the error of its ways, as hundreds of unemployable grads declared bankruptcy on graduation, and took back control of the programs.

This rate hike is a feint. It’s intended to give the central bankers some room to cut back to ’emergency’ rates (0.75% to 0.25%) to give them something useful to do when the world slips into recession after Russia implodes, or nukes Ukraine. Or both.

If they were really worried about inflation, they’d have hiked rates a full 2% or more.

*********
Apparently in the 80s Mr. Volker was also dragging his feet until he was forced to raise rates substantially.

#97 Cici on 04.13.22 at 5:35 pm

Sorry, Garth but this is all just Smoke & Mirrors. Don’t listen to what the banks/central bank SAY they are going to do, watch what they are actually doing on the ground. There are plans to open the floodgates of immigration and the supposed foreign buyer ban is a joke because it’s loaded with loopholes. Also the supposed price drops are meaningless because although you may now be paying less for a home than a few months ago, the selection is limited and the quality has gone down. So you are now paying slightly less than a few months ago, but you are getting a tear-down that needs will need to be gutted before you’ve finished paying it off.

Some other things of note:

I had secured a 2.54 rate guarantee last December that officially expired in February. The bank that issued it contacted me a few days ago to tell me to hurry up and take advantage of that rate, because it would be expiring in… May! Checked my e-mail inbox and noticed that they had sent me that same message last January. So the higher rates may just be cover.

And, out of curiosity today I decided to see what I would qualify for now given the rate increases. Lo and behold, they’ll give me a bigger mortgage now (with a higher interest rate of course) than they would last year. The mortgage calculator used a 5.25% qualifying rate, and over a 25-YEAR AMORTIZATION. That’s right, the 25-er is back, and it’ll probably jump to 30 or 40 years soon, because in Kanada, home prices can only go uppa, uppa, uppa!

#98 AwfullySorry on 04.13.22 at 5:39 pm

Pop? Really? From my Point Grey redoubt, I see nothing but sold signs and ridiculous asking prices. Chopping off $100k here and there won’t change any games in this neck of the woods, that’s the sort of thing buyers find down the back of the sofa. Where there will be pain is the leveraged land of Whistler where condos have been gobbled at insane rates at insane mortgage rates. $2000/sq ft is not uncommon in them hills and measly 380 sq ft cages have been selling for around that.

#99 None on 04.13.22 at 5:46 pm

Thanks for the comments everyone.

Just an aside – some people get a level of security from home ownership that not all of us can relate too.

In previous non-bubble times it was often said that ‘buying a house was the best investment someone ever did”. We all know that historically, houses are crappy money makers but they were the best investment largely because for most people it was their only investment.

Now add on the lottery level winnings that Canadian housing has become over the last 15 years. Ignore risk -> extreme reward. We all saw it.

All I’m saying is that i don’t fault her for her feelings. The country has been brainwashed. We all know it – the only way you can explain these house prices is mob mentality and shared delusion.

Anyway, I can disagree with someone and still care for them very deeply. I hope she finds herself someone new who bought their house pre-2015 and has been paying off their mortgage diligently since then.

#100 NOSTRADAMUS on 04.13.22 at 5:53 pm

FEBRUARY 24TH IN THE YEAR OF THE LORD 2022
February 24th 2022 was the day that Putin (Russia) invaded the Ukraine. Prior to this date the media would have us believe that the world economy was in great shape. Zero interest rate policy, inflation was temporary, with liquidity for anyone who could fog a mirror. And then, out of nowhere, darkening clouds appear, and along comes Putin. In a matter of days the world is turned upside down. MMMM too many Porky Lies for a doubting Thomas. Don’t hold your breath earthlings waiting for the media to actually report the truth the whole truth and nothing but the truth..

#101 Phylis on 04.13.22 at 6:00 pm

I think the lady who commented here earlier that said she got a hot tip from Tiff got trolled.

#102 crowdedelevatorfartz on 04.13.22 at 6:04 pm

@2#90 Ponzies Party Place.
+++

YOU have a “man” cave?
:0

Be still my heart.

#103 Guy in Calgary on 04.13.22 at 6:06 pm

Mortgage renews in July. Will probably make a lump sum payment at renewal for the first time ever. Let’s see what happens.

#104 cuke and tomato picker on 04.13.22 at 6:08 pm

Wow this blog MR TURNER is excellent we also really
enjoy the comments today they were especially good.
Everybody keep up the good work. Thanks again.

#105 Penny Henny on 04.13.22 at 6:09 pm

#106 BigAl (Original) on 04.13.22 at 2:38 am
House sigma is showing the majority of homes listed in my neighborhood in Milton in the past few weeks have been terminated/delisted.

//////////////////

You moved to Milton?
How sad.
Say hi to the Mayor.

#106 DON on 04.13.22 at 6:10 pm

#48 Billy Buoy on 04.13.22 at 1:57 pm
Yea! They raised rates! You got it right this time!

Congrats! You are batting.500 now.

1 more than it’s done.

Relax house lovers, if they were really serious the rate hike would have been 5% plus to catch up with inflation.
***********

Lmao…..Check out Mr. Volcker in the 80s. lol

#107 DON on 04.13.22 at 6:12 pm

#101 Phylis on 04.13.22 at 6:00 pm
I think the lady who commented here earlier that said she got a hot tip from Tiff got trolled.

*******

Good catch!

#108 BobinKits on 04.13.22 at 6:20 pm

#97 Cici
The mortgage calculator used a 5.25% qualifying rate, and over a 25-YEAR AMORTIZATION. That’s right, the 25-er is back, and it’ll probably jump to 30 or 40 years soon, because in Kanada, home prices can only go uppa, uppa, uppa!
******************
Am I missing something? I didn’t realize a 25-Year Amortization ever went away????

#109 Joe on 04.13.22 at 6:27 pm

It will be interesting to see how this plays out. Demographics are a powerful thing.

So will rising interest rates slow housing down or will the Millenial demographics keep housing prices bouyant.

#110 Buy Low Sell High on 04.13.22 at 6:34 pm

Hey None, sorry for the departure of your beloved. However, just one for question for ya….did Ms. None-To-Be work?

#111 T Rex and the dinosaur clique on 04.13.22 at 6:40 pm

RE: #78 Dogman01 on 04.13.22 at 4:25 pm

It is amazing how events are “turned on and off” by the media.

The abrupt total shut down of COVID-19 was breathtaking to watch. One minute we were all going to die, the next minute, crickets. You couldn’t find a story on it if you tried. Off like a switch. Replaced with the war in Ukraine.

They have “resurrected” COVID in Ontario as we have a Provincial election coming up, so our top doctor is in the dog house for taking a vacation (when it was perfectly legal and everyone else was taking vacations) and they are trying to unseat Ford and install a Liberal/NDP coalition government using what appear to be completely made up COVID numbers (estimates of 100,000 cases per day based on samples taken from sewage pipes).

The “climate crisis” is also apparently temporarily over. Turns out that bombs, guns, and blowing things up releases a lot of carbon dioxide. So we can’t have a climate crisis while we are fighting a war to save democracy and apple pie, and baseball and who knows what else. Climate crisis, shut down temporarily.

Oh well. At least they are no longer trying to stick things up my nose and inject me with stuff. That is a relief.

#112 Cici on 04.13.22 at 6:51 pm

#108 BobinKits on 04.13.22 at 6:20 pm

The 25-year has not been the de facto amortization period used in any mortgage calculator that I’ve used in the past five years. All calculations have always been based on the 20-year period, at least in my province.

Also, the mortgage calculators should at this point be means testing based on a 6% qualifying rate. Yet despite all the recent “rate increases,” the 5.25% is still the de facto stress test rate being employed.

#113 Reality is stark on 04.13.22 at 7:14 pm

To #16:
I feel vindicated knowing that the insightful posts I made over the years were of great value to you.
You just made a difficult but prudent decision.
Social justice warriors want all your decisions to be predicated on guilt.
A beautiful young Ukrainian woman who knows how to work hard and values freedom will be coming to your town soon. Patience is a virtue.

#114 Fred on 04.13.22 at 7:23 pm

Am I supposed to be impressed by a 50 basis points increase or 0.50% of a percentage point increase today. Remember, the Bank of Canada rate is still 0.75%. It should be minimum 3.0% today and that is still too low. It should be back to 2007-July levels of 4.5%. Canada is a pathetic, socialist, cesspool now. Good luck Canadians. You have seen nothing yet when it comes to becoming poorer.

#115 KLNR on 04.13.22 at 7:34 pm

@#46 Bonobo on 04.13.22 at 1:50 pm
Many on this board here hated and criticized Trump but at least North America became energy independent before the last US election.

Trump predicted $7.00 per gallon gas if Biden came to power and this is what happened.

The tragedy in Ukraine could have been avoided if we had remained energy independent of countries like Russia.

Now the Tom Fool enviro greenpeace minister is approving a massive oil project off the coast of NFLD. What a crock of rancid hypocricy!

Why don’t you approve Keystone XL and Energy East?

The result of all this is worsening inflation and higher interest rates with no end in sight!

Bring back the Trump policies for the US and Canada and let’s get back to normalcy! Tough boobies if you can’t handle his means tweets which I hope will be returning soon if Elon Musk does the right thing. If possible bring back Trump in the USA to coincide with the leadership of Pierre P. in Canada in 2025.

Are you lot happy now for what is going on now?

My fervent and deepest wish is that Liberal and NDP supporters are affected the most be all of this and that you will come to your senses about your future and your children’s future. Climate change is a joke. Ask Barak Obama why he bought a $15 million mansion at sea level in Hawaii if rising sea levels are such and issue for the lefties.

Alberta rant is over now but I could say a lot more…

some advice for you

Better to Remain Silent and Be Thought a Fool than to Speak and Remove All Doubt

#116 Ballingsford on 04.13.22 at 7:35 pm

#99 None on 04.13.22 at 5:46 pm
Thanks for the comments everyone.

All I’m saying is that i don’t fault her for her feelings. The country has been brainwashed. We all know it – the only way you can explain these house prices is mob mentality and shared delusion.

Anyway, I can disagree with someone and still care for them very deeply. I hope she finds herself someone new who bought their house pre-2015 and has been paying off their mortgage diligently since then.
****
You seem like a nice guy None. You gotta know when to hold them and when to fold them.
If you would have stuck around with her, this is how I would see your future.
– she’d spend any money you made,
– she’s a shopaholic,
– you two would have 2 kids,
– now for sure she is unable to work,
– you are now the only one changing diapers, putting food on the table, and cleaning the house,
– she goes into depression because you have no extra money to spend,
– she starts drinking heavily and becomes an alcoholic,
– she’s more depressed now and you two get divorced,
– you spend the next 20+ or so years paying child support and she has full custody because you aren’t able to look after the kids because you have to work to pay support,
– since the kids were raised by her, they become drug addicts and they land in jail,
– you become a lonely old man, without a dog.

OR,

You find a nice woman who deserves you, you start a family, and you, the missus, and kids have a happy, loving, and healthy life, and a dog.

#117 willworkforpickles on 04.13.22 at 7:38 pm

Could rate hikes regardless of how small they will be through 2022 be halted near years end without being clawed back any with a recession setting in. And in the face of QE5 to come then being implemented to keep the bubble economy bloated.?

They can and will and the stagflation to follow will be epic.
Inflation isn’t going away and will turn into a monster with 4 deadly tentacles.
Untamable Inflation is the beast growing the deadly tentacles of – Recession – QE5 – Stagflation – Halted rate increases with tiny to no pullbacks , leaving heightened interest and mortgage rates intact…and letting QE5 infuse the markets and devalue the dollar instead of keeping it propped up.

And all to come coming to a theater near you.

#118 espressobob on 04.13.22 at 7:39 pm

Investing unlike trading requires humility and loads of patience. While the major indices seem to be in a state of flux, this year could prove to be a bumper.

One really never knows and maintaining those core positions over time can prove profitable without the drama.

It’s a bitch trying to recover from a hit doing otherwise.

#119 Mr Fox on 04.13.22 at 7:41 pm

#69 Doug in London on 04.13.22 at 3:43 pm
Yes, and if prices drop and they have to sell at a loss to relocate for their job, or they can’t make payments they’ll blame the government.

Well, they’ll have to blame someone, for their lack of brains. They can’t blame themselves because they can’t see it…

Just now I was chatting with some of my friends on whatsapp, and one of them is saying how he hopes the rates won’t go over 5%, because he has two variable rate mortgages, one of them is for his investment property. That made me thinking.. how many people are there like him?

#120 Flop… on 04.13.22 at 7:42 pm

#80 crowdedelevatorfartz on 04.13.22 at 4:31 pm
@#16 None
“My relationship this past year failed because an ultimatum was dropped: “Buy a house now or our relationship is over”.”

++++

A ‘relationship” that was based on you buying a piece of Real Estate?
Sounds like a business transaction.
You dodged a bullet.
You would have eventually been split up AND without the real estate if you had purchased the “deal breaker”.

//////////////////////////

When I got married to Mrs Flop after a 6 month courtship that Stephen Harper thought was a good idea, I said to my wife we are going to travel for a while at first, and worry about kids and real estate later.

Coming up to our 20th anniversary later this year, still no real estate purchased.

Didn’t bother purchasing any kids either…

M47BC

#121 Sherry on 04.13.22 at 7:44 pm

It will be good finally being able to retire with our RRSPs, TFSAs and CPP, OAS. Our income is pretty close to even, 54% me, 46% her. We can finally make our $60,000 a year tax deferred, tax free at age 65 interest and pay under 15% annual income tax rates and still have $100,000 coming into our household. No mortgage, no debts will finally pay off.

#122 willworkforpickles on 04.13.22 at 8:06 pm

So many here are coming up with their own imagined solutions and eventual ways out of the economic mess.

And then it will be okay and we’ll all live happily ever after.

Fact is, there is no way out. No way around the mess governments and the Fed have created beyond the point of retraction or redemption without a great deal of blood in the streets to come. None!

#123 Flop… on 04.13.22 at 8:06 pm

Someone asked the other day why Australia hasn’t raised their rates yet.

It’s Election Season there, Federal Election on May 21st

Reserve Bank of Australia blinked recently, but have a couple of meetings coming up and is expected to pull the trigger by early May at the latest.

The leader of the opposition party has been described as having early onset Joe Biden, so that doesn’t sound too promising for those that want change.

What sort of ice cream do you want?

We only have two flavours at election time nowadays.

You can have vanilla or French vanilla…

M47BC

#124 BobinVan on 04.13.22 at 8:07 pm

#112 CiCi

Okay, I see now where you are coming from. Thanks

#125 CJohnC on 04.13.22 at 8:08 pm

#81 Doug in London and all the other greenies out there:

“Green” isn’t really green, nor particularly environmentally friendly. It takes about 10 times the quantity of material to build your wind turbines, solar panels and electric cars than if you just used hydrocarbons to deliver the energy in the first place.

Oil, natural gas, and coal are needed to produce the concrete, steel, plastics, and purified minerals used to build green machines. The energy equivalent of 100 barrels of oil is used in the processes to fabricate a single battery that can store the equivalent of one barrel of oil.

Replacing hydrocarbons with green machines under current plans—never mind aspirations for far greater expan- sion—will vastly increase the mining of various critical minerals around the world. For example, a single electric car battery weighing 1,000 pounds requires extracting and processing some 500,000 pounds of materials. Averaged over a battery’s life, each mile of driving an electric car “consumes” five pounds of earth. Using an internal combustion engine consumes about 0.2 pounds of liquids per mile.

Not to mention that all this green stuff has a short lifespan and can’t be recycled

Basically it is only green for you in your backyard but really not green at all

https://media4.manhattan-institute.org/sites/default/files/mines-minerals-green-energy-reality-checkMM.pdf

#126 Bitcoin Bro on 04.13.22 at 8:09 pm

So… inflation is raging and by their own tacit admission, it’s going to get worse and likely persist for years. Real inflation is well into the double digits of course. The top US general is on the record saying the war in Ukraine will likely be measured in years. Globalization is unwinding, so says the big Wall Street leaders and think tankers at least.

All of this… and the answer is teeny weeny base rate hikes from “free money” to “almost free money” and some “hawkish” rhetoric. Can’t stray too far away from “emergency rates” of course because we all know the taps will need to be turned back on again to prop up the equity markets long before inflation is actually under control.

#127 PeterfromCalgary on 04.13.22 at 8:18 pm

Ukraine has used Turkey’s Bayraktar TB2 drones to defend their country with great success. Unfortunately, Turkey is concerned that Russia may cut off their energy so they are unlikely to supply Ukraine any more.

This is where Canada comes in. Environment Canada has recently put strict emission restrictions on our energy industry. These restrictions which aim to reduce global warming will also make it impossible for Canada to replace Putin’s oil and gas.

Wars change things and Canada needs to drop these emission restrictions or we will be unintentionally helping Putin fund his wars!

#128 Millennial 1%er on 04.13.22 at 8:38 pm

god damn garth, everyone posting on this blog knew that you’d be right eventually. You’re almost there man… the sweet satisfaction of “I told you so” is going to feel so good

god bless you you eternal boomer you

#129 DON on 04.13.22 at 8:40 pm

#116 Ballingsford on 04.13.22 at 7:35 pm
#99 None on 04.13.22 at 5:46 pm
Thanks for the comments everyone.

All I’m saying is that i don’t fault her for her feelings. The country has been brainwashed. We all know it – the only way you can explain these house prices is mob mentality and shared delusion.

Anyway, I can disagree with someone and still care for them very deeply. I hope she finds herself someone new who bought their house pre-2015 and has been paying off their mortgage diligently since then.
****
You seem like a nice guy None. You gotta know when to hold them and when to fold them.
If you would have stuck around with her, this is how I would see your future.
– she’d spend any money you made,
– she’s a shopaholic,
– you two would have 2 kids,
– now for sure she is unable to work,
– you are now the only one changing diapers, putting food on the table, and cleaning the house,
– she goes into depression because you have no extra money to spend,
– she starts drinking heavily and becomes an alcoholic,
– she’s more depressed now and you two get divorced,
– you spend the next 20+ or so years paying child support and she has full custody because you aren’t able to look after the kids because you have to work to pay support,
– since the kids were raised by her, they become drug addicts and they land in jail,
– you become a lonely old man, without a dog.

OR,

You find a nice woman who deserves you, you start a family, and you, the missus, and kids have a happy, loving, and healthy life, and a dog.

*****************
For None

I did the OR.

After the breakup when I was moaning to my good friends while walking one day. One looked at me and said. ‘Are you stupid, you dodged a freaken bullet’ The others provided the buddy to buddy blank stare look when I clarified. My BIL laughed at me when I told him I would never find another. I would have laughed to. I still chuckle at myself about it. But grief is grief.

Just pissed at myself for not finding the OR package deal sooner (only took a year). Never looked back, not once.

You just gotta get through the pain the comes along with breaking up. But buddy, be excited cause everyday you wake up, there is the possibity to meet your true soul mate. One, who is by your side no matter what. Don’t try too hard or settle for less, you probably have a good idea of what you are looking for. Don’t settle and have fun. You are single…

All the best!

#130 melippery on 04.13.22 at 8:42 pm

#66 Squire

#57 cramar on 04.13.22 at 2:46 pm
#16 None on 04.13.22 at 12:34 pm

I needed this.

My relationship this past year failed because an ultimatum was dropped: “Buy a house now or our relationship is over”.

It was terribly difficult to say no to someone I loved so much. Any way you slice it, with the future being so uncertain, buying a house this year, at least from a financial view: “extreme risk, little reward”.

Saying good bye to the love of my life because I cared about her long term financial well being (and mine) was one of the hardest things I’ve had to do in my life.

I miss her every day.
————————————————–

You don’t really miss her. You miss the idea of her and you have likely dodged a bullet. Be thankful and move on. In a normal relationship there shouldn’t be those types of ultimatums.
Move on and don’t bring her up on future dates. It’s over !
—————-

Or maybe she wanted to buy a few years ago and now they missed win fall profits and if he had listened a few years ago….

#131 crowdedelevatorfartz on 04.13.22 at 8:52 pm

@#120 Floppie
“Coming up to our 20th anniversary later this year, still no real estate purchased.
Didn’t bother purchasing any kids either…

+++
Well done.
But if you change your mind…. “owning” kids can be expensive.

https://www.moneywehave.com/the-cost-of-raising-a-child-in-canada/#:~:text=It%20should%20be%20no%20surprise,age%20of%2018%20in%20Canada.

And after all that money and time….the bratz will probably tell you they hate you as they slam the basement bedroom door in your face on their 40th birthday.
:0

#132 Dogman01 on 04.13.22 at 8:56 pm

***News Alert***

CNOOC divesting from Canada, UK, USA.

https://globalnews.ca/news/8758137/cnooc-prepares-exit-canada-us-uk-oil/

Could a move on Taiwan be far off now?

Our world could get a whole lot more interesting…

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xeDPUIKsjGk

#133 fishman on 04.13.22 at 9:01 pm

Canada has had two conscription crisis. One in 1917 which came as close as anything ever to rip the country apart. One in 1944 which was pretty bad but Mackenzie King double talked his way through that & kept the country united. My dad was stationed in Quebec during this time flying over the convoys leaving Halifax looking for U boats. He told me when they were trucked up to their base in Baie Comeau there was an armed MP keeping them in the trucks. Absolutely no fraternizing with any locals. Military not allowed off base & into the Quebec towns ever. He didn’t really discriminate against French Canadians, though that was where the major anti-conscription bias seemed to be. He called the guys who wouldn’t volunteer”zoot-suiters”. The way he described them I’d say they were a precursor to the beatniks. He told me soldiers thought it good entertainment to search them out & beat them up when on leave.
KLNR: Your swarmy one liner ad hominem attacks are most disagreable.

#134 Shawn on 04.13.22 at 9:12 pm

What items have NOT increased 6% or more?

#43 Summertime on 04.13.22 at 1:39 pm
Central ‘bankers’ will ‘fight’ inflation of 15 % that they created themselves with 1 % rates?

The Canadian ‘CPI number’ of 6 % is insulting to any intelligence. What exactly increased by only 6 % since last year?

Shawn could you provide a list, please?

**********************************
That’s a fair question. I have chosen to trust that Statistics Canada has those answers as they have an army of people checking prices. I don’t, for the most part, keep track of prices.

You can click the various components items here and see which are under 6% for the 12 month change. Click on “data table”:

You can click by Province too.

https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/pub/71-607-x/2018016/cpilg-ipcgl-eng.htm

Let’s see Clothing Alberta is up 0.9%%. There are hundreds of items to look at. Fill your boots. You’re welcome.

I fully acknowledge that many grocery items are way up and Stats Canada shows that in the various subcomponents. They show Meat Excluding poultry is up 15.7%. Natural Gas and Electricity are up a lot.
A few areas I know that have not increased much are:

1. My property taxes in St Albert, Alberta. Up 1.0% in 2021 versus 2020. I have not received the 2022 invoice yet but it will be a small increase.

2.Parking at the Edmonton International Airport: JetsGo parking is advertising $35 per week as they are a price war with other ParknFly. This down from over $50 probably ten years ago. Competition is a wonderful thing.

3. I would say alcohol in Alberta has not risen 6%. We have private stores and the sales in particular are amazing. Stats Can says it is 0.6% inflation.

My response to higher grocery prices has been to start shopping what is on sale more often. There is seldom a need to pay full price.

If you are going to take the attitude that Statistics Canada is telling lies and would rather go off your own impressions then I can’t help you. Take a look at various subcomponents in the StatsCan CPI, which particular item do you disagree with? Or is it the weight placed on particular items that troubles you? Or do you just simply not trust Authority? There is a song about fighting authority and always losing. Did you also rail against your teachers in school?

#135 WTF on 04.13.22 at 9:13 pm

An interesting take on Pierre from a former Political strategist in the Liberal party (who loathes JT)

http://warrenkinsella.com/2022/04/my-latest-the-conservative-destroyer-is-here-and-he-isnt-who-you-think-he-is/

#136 Pbrasseur on 04.13.22 at 9:22 pm

Playtime’s over!

Inflation, a monetary phenomenon, is a stubborn little thing, you can’t fight it with the usual avoidance tools our governments use such as taxing, spending, borrowing and printing.

The only thing that works is credit tightening, or you can let inflation run which gets you to the same destination: more poverty, despair and hurt.

So good luck Canada, you’ll need it.

#137 Satori on 04.13.22 at 9:27 pm

#8 Doug t on 04.13.22 at 11:25 am
another .5 coming up fingers crossed
——————————-
Fingers crossed it 1.5%.

Maybe savers won’t be punished for saving any more. Those in debt were winning hand over fist growing fast as bean stalks. Crime in this country: was being a saver.

“Cash to be King” – my entire life that hasn’t been the case. At least since I started in the work force.

All my in-debt friends lived high-on-the-hog, better homes, better cars, better extravagant vacations, all the latest fun toys, AND they are upgrading everything every few years!

I have no idea what a ‘Cash is King’ society is even like. It’s always been “CASH IS TRASH”. I hope to see the day when it changes. The rate of inflation is still beating cash down.

Mind blowing. I have no idea what is to come or what it’s gonna be like?

#138 I don’t know on 04.13.22 at 9:35 pm

Of course they raised. Everyone expected it and anticipated it. More to come.

Congratulations to all who took our host’s advice and locked in for five years at rock bottom rates.

Housing affordability is about to become worse, not better. Much worse actually.

IDK

#139 Dr V on 04.13.22 at 9:38 pm

83 Ponz

The F150 has sat since last Friday when I did the recycle run with the yard waste and some larger cardboard items. Also did some other errands when out as I always do. Always funny at re-cycling when you see a fleet of half-tons with yard clippings.

In my front yard, I count 6 Arbutus, 1 small oak and 8 doug fir saplings that have regenerated naturally. I just gave them a trim.

Might use the truck tomorrow. Playing it by ear. Have put on less than 400k since beginning of March. Easy to cut down when you’re retired.

#140 Satori on 04.13.22 at 9:56 pm

#16 None on 04.13.22 at 12:34 pm
I needed this.

My relationship this past year failed because an ultimatum was dropped: “Buy a house now or our relationship is over”.

It was terribly difficult to say no to someone I loved so much. Any way you slice it, with the future being so uncertain, buying a house this year, at least from a financial view: “extreme risk, little reward”.

Saying good bye to the love of my life because I cared about her long term financial well being (and mine) was one of the hardest things I’ve had to do in my life.

I miss her every day.
————————————————
In hindsight you will see that this was the best choice for you, and her.

I can’t say ‘sorry for your loss’, and although you may miss her, who wants a partner that values “stuff” more than you? Good riddance…because after the house, it would be something else, once you got that, it would be something else, you could not win. Her hunger for “things” would never be satiated.

Wise are you, to let it go, despite the pain you knew you would feel. I applaud you!!!! I see a better future ahead for you my friend. <3

#141 Al on 04.13.22 at 9:58 pm

#92 Smartalox on 04.13.22 at 5:15 pm
Yes, this is also preparation for a future crisis, when it comes, the key action of the Central Banks will be to cut the rate

#142 CJohnC on 04.13.22 at 10:15 pm

#127 Pete from Calgary
This is where Canada comes in. Environment Canada has recently put strict emission restrictions on our energy industry. These restrictions which aim to reduce global warming will also make it impossible for Canada to replace Putin’s oil and gas.

Wars change things and Canada needs to drop these emission restrictions or we will be unintentionally helping Putin fund his wars!
……
This is very true, but as with pledges of military help to Ukraine, Trudeau is full of easy words and cheap gestures, but no action at all.

#143 neptunian on 04.13.22 at 10:20 pm

Putin causes our inflation! who are they kidding with?

I don’t have high expectation on CBs and T2, but they keep lowering my expectation with saying/doing like this one!

they know whey caused the inflation themselves; they know we know it; they know they are lying and they know we know they are lying….

RE is fine, until the rate is truly high (5%+), there will be scared-used-to-be-genius-RE-investors start selling, just if the number is big enough to trigger significant price drop?

the question now is, do they have to control this inflation, what if they don’t/can’t? 5-8% (actually 15-20%) inflation for next 2-3 years, what is going to happen?

#144 Diamond Dog on 04.13.22 at 10:21 pm

Friedman said it best, as good as I ever could after a month of thinking about it, at least as far as inflation and a rapid increase of the money supply are concerned. (but of course, we’ve recently had both)

Who is Milton Friedman? Likely the most well known economist of the last century for good reason. As an example, Friedman literally named m0, m1 & m2, terms used to describe today’s money supply. He was the first economist to figure out the intimate relationship between the money supply and inflation. In other words, when Friedman spoke, smart minds listened.

The m2 wealth effect of an increased money supply is well described by Milton Friedman in the video below at the 41 minute mark of a lecture on monetary policy and inflation:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=B_nGEj8wIP0

In Friedman’s own words:

“Look on the upgrade (wealth effect). Suppose the government turns on the presses and prints money and spends it to pay for it’s expenses. To begin with,
the people who find themselves doing better business don’t know what the explanation is. Government is paying more money, it’s employees have better salaries, they are coming to the store and buying more goods, the store keeper is delighted to sell them at the same prices as before.”

“Each man thinks this is something special that’s happening to him. The shoe manufacturer says “ah, look, I can sell more shoes, the demand for shoes is going up.” He doesn’t recognize that what’s really happening is that demand is going up everywhere and that not only is the demand for shoes is going up, but he’s going to have to pay more to get labor, he’s going to have to pay more to get leather and he’s going to have to pay more to produce his product.

“But when that shows up and after a while that his costs are up, then he suddenly discovers that he has to raise prices to make ends meet, and that’s why on the average in the U.S. over the last 100 years, an increase in the quantity of money has taken about 5 or 6 months to affect people’s spending.

The first thing that happens is that people just have bigger bank accounts (m2). Then it takes them a little while after that to start spending it. And then, its
another 12 to 18 months before that works through on prices. So on the average, over the past 100 years, there’s been about a 2 year interval between
the more rapid increase in the quantity of money on the one hand and the inflationary effects of it on the other.

But the same thing happens the other way. If the government slows down it’s spending, in the first instance people simply experience that as slower
demand for their products and they tend to retrench. They tend to say “my inventory is going up and I better cut back production”. It’s only after a considerable interval, that that’s reflected in lower prices or a slower increase in prices and works its way through. So there’s no way I know of, to slow down the interim effect of inflation. (2 year delay)” – Milton Friedman

Ok, so lets put this in some context. When Trump was in his last year of office, m0, the summary of all realized wealth and debt i.e. total money supply, increased by 42.3%. 42.3%!! This is of course, a historical record in the history of the U.S. dollar. There has never been such a rapid increase in the money supply over such a short period of time. The money supply increased so rapidly, that m2 broke a record at 27.2% yoy, 10% higher than any previous yoy over the last 154 years:

https://www.longtermtrends.net/m2-money-supply-vs-inflation/

Did Trump try to buy a U.S. election through the wealth effects generated by a rapidly increased money supply? In Oct of 2019, the Fed, controlled by it’s overlords in Washington (it’s a democracy after all isn’t it), began buying $ 60+ billion a month in mortgage backed securities months before the pandemic hit. I think that makes it pretty obvious in it’s own right, now doesn’t it. To print 42.3% new money in just one year is to believe a nation’s GDP will fall by close to 40%. Even during a pandemic, how was this realistic.

By the way, the chart above isn’t simply a chart of m2 vs inflation, it’s a corruption meter. If one looks at the past times inflation has risen following a big pop in m2, we’ll see that there was a case to be made for Johnson. Nixon was a big money printer. So was his vice president and future president Ford, both corrupt. As well as Reagan in 84′ in his re-election bid, there’s no excuse for it.

If we were to look at WWII m2 as ideological corruption that led to the dollar’s previous yoy record, as well as regulatory corruption from the GFC that led to an m2 pop in 09′, under those definitions, the chart above can be described as exactly that, a corruption meter with Trump leading the pack.

Is there a way out of inflation? Sure. It takes a couple years according to Friedman (of course the Fed didn’t have 9 trillion on it’s balance sheet and the potential for quantitative “tighening” either), but the Fed has to reverse it’s democratically induced stupidity and cover for corrupt regimes of the past and start sucking money out of the supply. It’s the only way to break the inflationary behavior. If the Fed doesn’t do so, purchase power continues to be crushed for everyone with fixed income feeling it the most. Unfortunately, sucking money out of the supply means recession. Pretty much like every other time inflation has reared it’s ugly head. The only question that remains is when:

https://www.financialsamurai.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/03/inflation-10year-yield-fed-funds-rate.jpg

#145 Capt. Serious on 04.13.22 at 10:22 pm

Honestly nothing short of pitching the world economy into recession will contain inflation because it’s coming from supply chain issues and booming companies (profit margins are fat). Stamp out demand and bankrupt some companies and you have a shot. Increasing the cost of money doesn’t fix supply chain issues. Government policy has of course made the whole situation a mess with juicing policies stoking demand. Some people will be screwed by ill timed real estate purchases. I’m more concerned in an attempt to contain inflation the CBs raise too fast and end up with an economic mess they cannot stimulate their way out of. Is inflation really a problem if everyone who wants work has a job? Especially when longer term tech and demographic trends are deflationary, on wonders if this isn’t an overreaction. Best case scenario their hawkish tone does the work for them of turning down demand before rates get too high.

I’m not sure how this will all play out, but never trust a central bank doing surgery with a broad axe.

#146 Capt. Serious on 04.13.22 at 10:24 pm

Bitcoin Bro on 04.13.22 at 8:09 pm

Name checks out.

#147 Satori on 04.13.22 at 10:34 pm

#83 Ponzius Pilatus on 04.13.22 at 4:44 pm

Zelensky screwed up the little support he got from Germany by dissing the German President.
——————————————-
On CNN Zelensky denied saying that, saying it was Russian Fake news.

#148 Satori on 04.13.22 at 10:42 pm

#116 Ballingsford on 04.13.22 at 7:35 pm

okay… you NAILED IT!!! Totally. Take note, grass hoppers! :D

#149 Satori on 04.13.22 at 10:56 pm

#116 Ballingsford on 04.13.22 at 7:35 pm

Not the alcohol and drug bit…but single and paying child support, know some of them myself.

#150 Gloris on 04.13.22 at 11:02 pm

Trudeau printed so much money he broke MMT!!! Now his voters can than him. Especially the variable rate FOMO Dragons. Looks like the only ones getting hurt are the ones who let Trudeau run the printing presses. If ont he’d spent some of that money in Canada? Looks like keeping rates at zero so that Trudeau could raid the treasury for upbeat causes, like splashing Jimmy Kimmel with $50 million , and a thousand other panders isn’t working out for the guy who got sucked in by the fakery. Isn’t it true though, it’s always the little guy who gets screwed by the Liberals?

#151 Ponzius Pilatus on 04.13.22 at 11:09 pm

#139 Dr V on 04.13.22 at 9:38 pm
83 Ponz

The F150 has sat since last Friday when I did the recycle run with the yard waste and some larger cardboard items. Also did some other errands when out as I always do. Always funny at re-cycling when you see a fleet of half-tons with yard clippings.

In my front yard, I count 6 Arbutus, 1 small oak and 8 doug fir saplings that have regenerated naturally. I just gave them a trim.

Might use the truck tomorrow. Playing it by ear. Have put on less than 400k since beginning of March. Easy to cut down when you’re retired.
——————-
Lots of trucks parked on the streets and in the driveways in my neighborhood during the day.
I wonder, once higher finance costs start to bite, what will go first, the truck or the house?

#152 yvr_lurker on 04.13.22 at 11:20 pm

#134 Shawn

1. My property taxes in St Albert, Alberta. Up 1.0% in 2021 versus 2020. I have not received the 2022 invoice yet but it will be a small increase.
———————

Good for you. However, in places like YVR we have had property tax increases of roughly 7% averaged over the past 3 years. Meter parking has zoomed ahead, rents are much higher than in early COVID period, and gas has completely spiked over the past 3–4 months. Food is certainly up, and there was a serious supply chain problem driving prices for most of this winter with the highways down from the epic floods in November.

Inflation can be local….

#153 Lorne on 04.13.22 at 11:23 pm

#24 Squire on 04.13.22 at 12:50 pm
Canadian’s would rather eat KD than take a hit on the sale of their property. Don’t expect prices to come down much. Seen it before. We have a strange obsession with home ownership at all costs.
……..
It’ been said before many time…..some people do not have a choice as to whether they sell….even if it’s value has gone down.

#154 Doug in London on 04.13.22 at 11:26 pm

@Bonobo, post #91:
You should follow the advice of Mark Twain who said you should keep quiet and have everyone think you’re an idiot rather than speak up and remove all doubt. I know that oil and gas production won’t be ending any time soon, that’s obvious but these higher prices are an opportune time to cut their use and come up with a plan to actually get off fossil fuels. You are obviously quite stupid to suggest I’m a 30 something disgruntled grocery store greenpeace sub-millenial. I’m a 61 year old retired engineer. I wisely invested my money which made my retirement possible. Buy low, sell high.

As for my fellow Canadians, I see a lot of them driving big SUVs, one person per car, and going 120 Km per hour on 400 series highways which burns a lot more gas than going 100 Km per hour or less. How can I feel sorry for someone like that? All my working life I lived as close to work as possible so I wouldn’t have long commuting distances in my subcompact fuel sipping car with a 4 cylinder engine. I often biked to work, and still bike a lot now. It’s all in the choices you make in life. I don’t own a $50k Tesla and probably never will. I remember well the so called energy crisis of 1973-74, when I was in grade 7, and back then decided I would live in a manner such that I wouldn’t be held hostage by high fuel prices. It’s called planning ahead more than 1.6 picoseconds into the future. You obviously don’t understand such a simple idea.

#155 Ponzius Pilatus on 04.13.22 at 11:33 pm

147 Satori on 04.13.22 at 10:34 pm
#83 Ponzius Pilatus on 04.13.22 at 4:44 pm
Zelensky screwed up the little support he got from Germany by dissing the German President.
——————————————-
On CNN Zelensky denied saying that, saying it was Russian Fake news.
——————————————————-
Sure.
Below is what the German Vice-Chancellor said about that:
The President is Germany. And therefore his “un-invitation” by President Selensky is an “un-invitation” of Germany.
»Ich muss es leider so sagen: Die ukrainische Seite hat einen diplomatischen Fehler gemacht.« Mit diesen Worten hat Vizekanzler Robert Habeck (Grüne) die Absage der Ukraine an einen Besuch von Bundespräsident Frank-Walter Steinmeier kommentiert. »Der Bundespräsident ist Deutschland. Und deswegen ist seine Ausladung durch Präsident Selenskyi eine Ausladung Deutschlands«, sagte Habeck den Zeitungen der Funke-Mediengruppe.

#156 Dogman01 on 04.13.22 at 11:39 pm

#143 neptunian on 04.13.22 at 10:20 pm

they know whey caused the inflation themselves; they know we know it; they know they are lying and they know we know they are lying….

———————————————–

You left out the most important part…. “but they are still lying.”

“We know they are lying, they know they are lying, they know we know they are lying, we know they know we know they are lying, but they are still lying.” – Aleksandr Solzhenitsyn

The fact that “they are still lying” speaks to the contempt they hold for you.

#157 Doug in London on 04.13.22 at 11:43 pm

@CJohnC, post #125:
I never said electric cars were the answer to cutting carbon emissions. There are easier ways like nuclear power for when wind and solar power aren’t generating power. Speaking of which, yes it takes a lot of energy to produce these wind turbines and solar panels, but over their life span they generate far more energy than went into making them in the first place. And now for the punch line, they keep getting cheaper to make with each passing day.

As for transportation, higher density cities are the way to go, a lot smarter than overloading the power grid to charge up all those expensive electric cars travelling long distances into endless sprawling suburbs.

#158 crowdedelevatorfartz on 04.13.22 at 11:45 pm

@#135 WTF

Interesting opinion piece by Kinsella.

I noticed he didn’t mention the “anti vote”

How many people who are so sick of Trudeaus’ wheezy, breathless, endless apologies….will vote

“Anyone but the incumbent”

I mean….isnt that how Trudeau beat Harper?

#159 DON on 04.13.22 at 11:55 pm

#138 I don’t know on 04.13.22 at 9:35 pm

Housing affordability is about to become worse, not better. Much worse actually.

IDK

*************
At some point the banks may tighten their lending criteria, depending on how things play out. Good credit and cash may be king again.

#160 Pablo in YYC on 04.13.22 at 11:59 pm

Uh…this was the 2nd doubling of the benchmark rate in a row. It doubled from 0.25 to 0.5 on March 2nd and then doubled again from 0.5 to 1.0 today

#161 DON on 04.14.22 at 12:13 am

#143 neptunian on 04.13.22 at 10:20 pm
Putin causes our inflation! who are they kidding with?

I don’t have high expectation on CBs and T2, but they keep lowering my expectation with saying/doing like this one!

they know whey caused the inflation themselves; they know we know it; they know they are lying and they know we know they are lying….

RE is fine, until the rate is truly high (5%+), there will be scared-used-to-be-genius-RE-investors start selling, just if the number is big enough to trigger significant price drop?

the question now is, do they have to control this inflation, what if they don’t/can’t? 5-8% (actually 15-20%) inflation for nex..

*****************
Herdonomics. When the herd is anxious anything can spook them. Currently investors own a big chunk of this housing market. All eyes are on them.

#162 DON on 04.14.22 at 12:31 am

#155 Ponzius Pilatus on 04.13.22 at 11:33 pm

What’s your take on the Austrian leader visiting Putin. He could have just sent Putin an email saying what he said publicly.

This war was supposed to be over weeks ago. The US announcing more weapons in 5-6 days. But obviously not to the encircled eastern pockets of resistance. These folks could use the weapons yesterday.

@Sail Away.

If Canada needs to defend our borders in the near future, I’ll be right beside you on the front lines, no youth need to sacrafice our youth.

#163 Inadequate on 04.14.22 at 12:48 am

#157 Doug in London

As a fellow engineer, I too believe that true green energy future lies in nuclear. Any sound person who studies the subject would come to this conclusion. It is a simple fact that 1 kg of uranium contains 100,000 times more in energy than a 1 kg of diesel (approx). Yet, the society chooses to keeping polluting through “electrification”. I have come to the conclusion that we, as a society, is willing to pay as long as pollution happens elsewhere.

#164 Satori on 04.14.22 at 12:58 am

#155 Ponzius Pilatus on 04.13.22 at 11:33 pm
147 Satori on 04.13.22 at 10:34 pm
#83 Ponzius Pilatus on 04.13.22 at 4:44 pm
Sure.
Below is what the German Vice-Chancellor said about that:
The President is Germany. And therefore his “un-invitation” by President Selensky is an “un-invitation” of Germany.
»Ich muss es leider so sagen: Die ukrainische Seite hat einen diplomatischen Fehler gemacht.« Mit diesen Worten hat Vizekanzler Robert Habeck (Grüne) die Absage der Ukraine an einen Besuch von Bundespräsident Frank-Walter Steinmeier kommentiert. »Der Bundespräsident ist Deutschland. Und deswegen ist seine Ausladung durch Präsident Selenskyi eine Ausladung Deutschlands«, sagte Habeck den Zeitungen der Funke-Mediengruppe.
——————————————

Use to work for the airlines, but took a big buy out. Fluent in seven languages got me in.

Thanks for the ‘German’ update.
Here’s one in English:

https://www.france24.com/en/live-news/20220413-kyiv-wants-scholz-visit-and-german-arms-zelensky-aide

#165 al on 04.14.22 at 1:20 am

.25 raise in face of 6% inflation. Shoulda been at least 50bips given they waited so long. Yawn .

#166 DON on 04.14.22 at 1:58 am

#30 Ponzius Pilatus on 04.13.22 at 1:08 pm

The price of Oats was in the news lately. The price is going up due to last years heat wave and future expectations.

Inflation was increasing before Putin invaded. Now the US Banks are calling March as peak inflation…the US midterms are coming. Last month the experts were saying the Ukraine War would be over thus decreasing inflation.

Baffled by Bullshit.

#167 under the radar on 04.14.22 at 5:07 am

137 – I have some news for you, Cash was always king. Ask Warren if you don’t believe me.

#168 Summertime on 04.14.22 at 6:54 am

#134 Shawn on 04.13.22 at 9:12 pm

You need to be more creative. For example:

You got free gloves ($ 40 value) when you purchased that $ 1200 famous brand Canadian winter jacket.

From 40 bucks to zero is infinite deflation so even those gloves constitute 0.001 % of your expenses the end result is still infinite deflation, so there is no inflation, and if there is, it should be as statistics Canada stated: sub 2 % and in exceptional cases and only temporary/as of now/and for a very long time/still temporary/ sub 6%

This is how math works in this place.

#169 I don’t know on 04.14.22 at 6:58 am

#159 DON on 04.13.22 at 11:55 pm

It’s possible, but I think unlikely.

For the average family with an average income and savings, already having trouble affording monthly payments with rates in the 1-3% range, this will seriously erode affordability.

Basically only those with high incomes will be buying. We’ve already been headed there in a way, the rate hikes are simply going to accelerate it. We haven’t built anywhere near enough homes over the past few decades, so even those with large down payments will face stiff competition.

I reckon the chorus of people asking government to step in will get louder and louder, and the divide between home owners and renters wider.

IDK

#170 TurnerNation on 04.14.22 at 8:06 am

What’s going on with Natural Gas prices.

https://finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?t=NG&p=w1

— So close to back to normal! Global Digital ID is just a … Theory. This is not designed to “Be over”.

“EU member states agree to extend COVID certificate by one year”
https://www.euractiv.com/section/coronavirus/news/eu-member-states-agree-to-extend-covid-certificate-by-one-year/

.Pfizer’s Bourla: COVID vaccines for new variants possible for Fall (reuters.com)

— Science in Kanada. You get animals sick? WTH.

.Toronto Zoo not ready to drop mandatory vax policy for visitors, staff. “We have a responsibility to protect our COVID-19-susceptible animals, many of which are endangered,” the CEO said (torontosun.com)

— Children must not know normal. Smiles banned, 2 years running.

.Masks mandatory in all Ottawa public schools effective immediately, OCDSB says (ottawa.ctvnews.ca)

#171 Glengarry Girl on 04.14.22 at 8:08 am

“Canadian’s would rather eat KD than take a hit on the sale of their property” yet another untruth. We are about to watch first hand what Canadians do when their property values fall and the unsustainable Debt they have taken on at the lowest interest rates Historically start to rise. The term “jingle mail” has been talked about by my older Canadian relatives as they tell their stories of the Interest Rates in the 80s. People couldn’t pay their mortgages and they mailed in the keys to their homes to the bank. It is one of the things that annoy me the most, listening to my fellow Canadians repeat untruths that have helped to create and bolster this Housing Crisis. It’s not different this time and Canada is only Special because they’ve foolishly taken on Debt which isn’t reasonable to their skill set and income potential.

#172 crowdedelevatorfartz on 04.14.22 at 8:25 am

@#151 Ponzie ponders petty problems
“I wonder, once higher finance costs start to bite, what will go first, the truck or the house?”
+++
Usually it’s the financed luxury cars, boats, Motorhomes, quad runners, skidoos, motorcycles, cruises, what ever…
You know.
All the things a HELOC brings
:)

#173 Dharma Bum on 04.14.22 at 8:40 am

Curb your desires.

Stop FOMO.

End the selfishness (there is no self).

Then, your suffering will be eliminated.

#174 Carlo on 04.14.22 at 8:49 am

>In justifying its inflation failure, the bank (in part) blames Putin:

What a crock of shit. There’s one answer to this crude propaganda:

“80% of all US dollars in existence were printed in the last 22 months (from $4 trillion in January 2020 to $20 trillion in October 2021)”

>https://techstartups.com/2021/12/18/80-us-dollars-existence-printed-january-2020-october-2021/

That is an incorrect ‘fact’. – Garth

#175 MSM are slow! on 04.14.22 at 8:59 am

Look, some of the MSM finally clued into the option they’ve been avoiding reporting on, but have no choice to acknowledge…finally.

“Whatever they may say, no politician actually wants to cut house prices”

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/opinion/article-whatever-they-may-say-no-politician-actually-wants-to-cut-house-prices/

“What if politicians actually like the housing crisis?”

https://nationalpost.com/news/canada/first-reading-what-if-politicians-actually-like-the-housing-crisis

#176 Nucular Bush on 04.14.22 at 9:05 am

#157 Doug in London

I gotta tell you Doug, you speak sense and logic.

I only have one problem with nuclear power – the waste. It is yet another thing that we’re leaving for the next generation to deal with.

Of course eventually (year or two) they will green light a bunch of plants to be built as there is no choice, but the waste is a real issue that has no solution.

Humans can’t do anything that is not borrowing from the future it appears. Be it debt, enslaving future generations to it before they are even born, or leaving them with crazy nuclear waste with no truly safe way to store it.

The promise of Molten Salt Reactors running on this waste seems to be an unfulfilled dream – as revisions to the technology as it evolves for mass application appears to not be able to use current reactor waste for fuel as it was anticipated and promised.

I truly hope that MSR turns out to be the solution and technology solves the waste problem, but as it stands – it is a problem that cannot be overlooked.

#177 crowdedelevatorfartz on 04.14.22 at 9:34 am

@#174 Carlo
“There’s one answer to this crude propaganda:”

+++
I remember reading a quote that went something like this…
Ten thousand monkeys typing for ten thousand years might eventually, accidentally, write a Shakespearian play.

I think we’ve reached that point with the internet.

10 billion people spewing 10 billion conspiracy theories …and none of them are correct.

#178 crowdedelevatorfartz on 04.14.22 at 9:40 am

@#171 Glengarry Girl
“he term “jingle mail” has been talked about by my older Canadian relatives as they tell their stories of the Interest Rates in the 80s. People couldn’t pay their mortgages and they mailed in the keys to their homes to the bank. ”

++

Yep.
I knew several people in the meltdown that was Calgary that walked away. Lost everything.
Lotsa fires and insurance scams as well.
As for this time.
The rules have changed.
You can’t abandon the debt.
The banks have learned from their previous mistakes.
People may walk away from the debt but it will follow them into bankruptcy.
Debtors will go Big Casino because it’s not considered the stigma it once was.
I expect a lot of Trustees in Bankruptcy will be busy. Bankruptcies will purge a lot of debt.

#179 Senator Bluto on 04.14.22 at 10:02 am

Elon Musk offers $41.39 billion to buy Twitter and turn it into a platform for free speech.

Twitter employees vehemently oppose the idea of using their Twitter for free speech.

That tells you everything you need to know about Twitter.

Musk may have destroyed Twitter and picked up a billion dollars before breakfast.

#180 Damifino on 04.14.22 at 10:13 am

#176 Nucular Bush

I only have one problem with nuclear power – the waste. It is yet another thing that we’re leaving for the next generation to deal with.
—————————————

From Alex Epstein:

Q: What do we do about nuclear waste?

A: We keep storing it safely and compactly. Because nuclear is such concentrated energy its waste is tiny compared to the alternatives. A better question is: What do we do about solar panel, wind turbine, and battery waste?

https://environmentalprogress.org/big-news/2017/6/21/are-we-headed-for-a-solar-waste-crisis

https://www.forbes.com/sites/michaelshellenberger/2018/05/23/if-solar-panels-are-so-clean-why-do-they-produce-so-much-toxic-waste/?sh=75aaab01121c

#181 Sail Away on 04.14.22 at 10:14 am

US average 30 year mortgage rates hit 5%.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/mortgage-rates-hit-5-for-first-time-since-2011-11649943332

#182 OK, Doomer on 04.14.22 at 10:17 am

#178 crowdedelevatorfartz on 04.14.22 at 9:40 am
@#171 Glengarry Girl
“he term “jingle mail” has been talked about by my older Canadian relatives as they tell their stories of the Interest Rates in the 80s. People couldn’t pay their mortgages and they mailed in the keys to their homes to the bank. ”

++
Bankruptcies will purge a lot of debt.

+++++++++++++++++++

A good friend of mine declared bankruptcy decades ago. This was a brutal decision on his part, but it ended years of anguish and stress from trying to service the millstone of bad decisions made both by him and the people who lent him the money.

His life improved immensely after bankruptcy and after several years he re-built his life and hasn’t looked back since. I have a lot of respect for what he did.

The good thing that came out of it was that he learned from his mistakes and never got into financial trouble again. From the sidelines, I got an education of what not to do, and didn’t repeat any of his mistakes even though I did invent a few new ones of my own.

From what I can tell, the various levels of government have been papering over and enabling poor financial decisions since the Financial Crisis in 2008. Allowing a few very painful and very public bankruptcies then would have saved us a whole lot of problems now.

#183 Quintilian on 04.14.22 at 10:20 am

#175 MSM are slow! on 04.14.22 at 8:59 am
“Look, some of the MSM finally clued into the option they’ve been avoiding reporting on, but have no choice to acknowledge…finally.”

The media has been an accomplice in the theft.
They have been as genuine and truthful as a ringside interviewer at pro wrestling matches.

As the torrid unleashing of the RE pumpers into the media circuit unfolds this spring, the hyperbole will make it obvious that the media has been a part of the scam.

Just keep an ear open for how devasting it would be if the government takes away “their hard-earned equity”

You are so full of it. – Garth

#184 willworkforpickles on 04.14.22 at 10:31 am

People with money aren’t stupid enough to catch a falling knife RE market.
Most didn’t acquire money by being stupid.
The largest portion of RE buys have been by the reckless with very little money and it paid off for some.
Those buyers and that buying will seize up soon enough.
Smart money is waiting in the wings now for pennies on the dollar distress and forfeit sales.

#185 Satori on 04.14.22 at 10:34 am

Bankruptcy is serious, they will take your RRSP, TSFA , car, truck and all other accounts and assets. Home mortgages in Canada, extend beyond the house.

Losing everything, is not an option for most…but with our low down payments, heck, live like a millionaire for $5-10,0000 bucks down payment, claim bankruptcy and then move back in with the folks…

I am sure there is a lot of tricks coming too. Like putting the house in your partners name, move all your assets and then claiming bankruptcy…not sure how that all works but there must be all kinds of loop holes. I mean it’s in Canada after all, where only 40% of the population pays taxes… :|

#186 Doug in London on 04.14.22 at 10:40 am

@Nucular Bush, post #176:
True, nuclear power has its drawbacks but it’s the lesser of the evils of generating power, especially burning fossil fuels. There are ways to deal with the waste, that nagging problem with nuclear power. Right now, there’s the proposed solution of dealing with it is burial deep below farming country of Midwestern Ontario. That idea is getting a lot of opposition, which is understandable. Here we are in Canada, the second largest country in the world, and with large areas that are largely uninhabited. It seems odd that we can’t find a better place to bury this waste. Another option is reprocessing. Spent fuel still has a lot of energy in it, so it can be reprocessed and used again. If the French can do it, as they’ve been doing for years, why can’t we?

#187 willworkforpickles on 04.14.22 at 10:43 am

Good to see the herd is catching up to what I’ve been saying for months with nobody listening.
Even before the Putin war started, i was saying the blame for inflation is being directed anywhere but on Gov. and the Fed. Soon after the war began I posted here of the new excuse that will be used…Putin’s war.
I also said here months back that when the mainstream catches on to this indirect blame for inflation , everyone will be an expert on the subject then.

#188 Blacksheep on 04.14.22 at 10:52 am

Will #184,

“Smart money is waiting in the wings now for pennies on the dollar distress and forfeit sales.”
———————————-
After a dozen plus years here, I’ve seen how well this line of thinking has worked out for many here.

#189 Ponzius Pilatus on 04.14.22 at 10:53 am

#177 CEF
I remember reading a quote that went something like this…
Ten thousand monkeys typing for ten thousand years might eventually, accidentally, write a Shakespearian play.
——————————
Good try.
But the actual quote goes like this:
“Will an infinite number of monkeys, typing on an infinite number of type writers for infinity eventually come up with the complete works of Shakespeare?”
It’s an existential question, trying to conceptualize eternity.

#190 Linda on 04.14.22 at 10:59 am

#81 ‘Doug’ – while I agree urban sprawl needs reining in, that genie has long since left the bottle. As per Google, London Ontario sprawls over 420 square kilometers; Toronto covers some 630 square kilometers; the GTA metropolitan region covers 7,124 square kilometers. Toronto by itself is home to some 2.93 million people (2017); the GTA is home to some 5.9 million.

Walkable communities presumes that where one lives is where one works. In our society that frequently is not the case. The WFH during Covid proved the old model of commuting daily to an office isn’t necessary for many professions. However ‘many’ is not ‘all’. As for walking to work, let’s take London Ontario as an example. My walking pace is roughly 6 km per hour, which is considered a fast walking pace. My office is located 17 km from my home. On foot it would take me at least 2.75 hours to get to the office. I might be able to shave that down to 2.5 hours by taking shortcuts that vehicle traffic can’t access. Bicycling would take roughly 30 minutes each way, but we live in a winter climate. Public transit takes at least an hour each way. There is only so much time in a day, so one can see why driving has continued to be a preferred method of getting around in an urban environment. My point being there is no easy answer to the issues with urban sprawl & a lot of societal changes will have to occur to limit it.

#191 REDS - Real Estate Derangement Syndrome on 04.14.22 at 10:59 am

#185 Satori on 04.14.22 at 10:34 am
Bankruptcy is serious, they will take your RRSP, TSFA , car, truck and all other accounts and assets. Home mortgages in Canada, extend beyond the house.

++++++++++++++++++++++

What most people think of today as “mortgages” aren’t actually mortgages in the true sense of the word anymore. I’m not sure if any financial institutions still offer a real old-school mortgage.

Today’s “mortgages” are little more than tarted-up personal guarantee backed demand loans, with the banks having broad powers to take anything they want AND adjust rates as they see fit.

True mortgages are passe. Too much risk for the bank in today’s messed up world. And no need for it in a world filled with people with cases of REDS (Real Estate Derangement Syndrome). Plenty of financially illiterate putzes to feed on.

#192 Sail Away on 04.14.22 at 11:01 am

Re: nuclear waste

Of course it can be buried. That is, after all, where it came from in the first place.

Don’t build imaginary barriers by overthinking this.

#193 Ponzius Pilatus on 04.14.22 at 11:06 am

#186 Doug in London on 04.14.22 at 10:40 am
@Nucular Bush, post #176:
True, nuclear power has its drawbacks but it’s the lesser of the evils of generating power, especially burning fossil fuels. There are ways to deal with the waste, that nagging problem with nuclear power. Right now, there’s the proposed solution of dealing with it is burial deep below farming country of Midwestern Ontario. That idea is getting a lot of opposition, which is understandable. Here we are in Canada, the second largest country in the world, and with large areas that are largely uninhabited. It seems odd that we can’t find a better place to bury this waste. Another option is reprocessing. Spent fuel still has a lot of energy in it, so it can be reprocessed and used again. If the French can do it, as they’ve been doing for years, why can’t we?
——————————-
Lots of good questions.
I was in Hungary during the Chernobyl disaster.
Pretty scary, I can tell you.
Had to spent 10 days cooped up in a hotel.
No reliable information.
Fortunately, for us, the radioactive cloud went way up North into the arctic.
Poor reindeers.

#194 crowdedelevatorfartz on 04.14.22 at 12:06 pm

@#189 Pedantic Ponzie
“….trying to conceptualize eternity.”

+++
My concept of an eternity is being in a car with you talking…….for an hour.

#195 willworkforpickles on 04.14.22 at 12:14 pm

#188 Blacksheep

“After a dozen plus years here, I’ve seen how well this line of thinking has worked out for many here.”
……………………………………………………………………………………………………………..

A dozen years , even 5 years ago have no bearing on the present unprecedented and un-repairable fix this economy is now in.
Its amazing how the masses today are locked away in some time warp of the past. Thinking the fiscal and economical solutions of yesterday, could ever be applied as before to repair this mess the Government and the Fed have created the last few years. They will and can only continue adding more fuel to the perpetual out of control wildfire they’ve already created.

It really is a change of time and history where we are currently at . Forget what the ill informed were saying then. Pay attention to what is being said now.

#196 Ponzius Pilatus on 04.14.22 at 12:22 pm

#194 crowdedelevatorfartz on 04.14.22 at 12:06 pm
@#189 Pedantic Ponzie
“….trying to conceptualize eternity.”

+++
My concept of an eternity is being in a car with you talking…….for an hour.
——————-
That’s why I don’t have a car.

#197 willworkforpickles on 04.14.22 at 12:46 pm

There are options…all bad , very bad.
….there are just no easy fixes whilst this economy and society spirals toward utter calamity.

Lies and more lies are one of the options being employed now.

#198 Jesse on 04.14.22 at 1:10 pm

#16 None on 04.13.22 at 12:34 pm
I needed this.

My relationship this past year failed because an ultimatum was dropped: “Buy a house now or our relationship is over”.

It was terribly difficult to say no to someone I loved so much. Any way you slice it, with the future being so uncertain, buying a house this year, at least from a financial view: “extreme risk, little reward”.

Saying good bye to the love of my life because I cared about her long term financial well being (and mine) was one of the hardest things I’ve had to do in my life.

I miss her every day.

******************************

You dodged a bullet.

#199 Chris on 04.14.22 at 1:38 pm

Maybe – Or, rates rise a few times, back to a more normal historical level over a couple of years. The combo of increased rates and other world events getting back to a more normal state (Russia/Ukraine, Covid, supply chains) all have a moderating factor. Housing cools a little maybe, people spend less on indulgences maybe, and in a couple years, not much has changed, except the interest rate is back to a useful level.

#200 Or_maybe on 04.14.22 at 2:33 pm

@ #4 Crowded EF

‘We still have a long way to go to slay the housing dragon’
——————————————————————–

That would also mean to slay this country’s FIRE economy which has been THE only source of wealth creation for over 25 years.

It will have to be a slow and painful transition away from the paper money economy to something else that the Libs are trying to re-invent the country. Lots of speculation going on about what that will be.

However, I will not hold my breath to think that the libs will focus on having a nation that is self-reliant with its vast energy supplies to make that energy cheap for all Canadians. Energy and food is the most important aspect of a nation to move forward – even if it means going greener – and to allow it’s citizens not to spend on shameful and wasteful stuff like replacing a granite counter every 5 years or an F-350 to pull a Mumba a dozen times in the summer.

No, I’m talking about cheap gas,petrol, electricity and food resources so that people are not always going to the bank to refinance and can actually save a bit.

Basically, to slow down the destructive consumerism from importing cheap Asian junk. It has proven to be disastrous for a whole generation.

#201 Doug in London on 04.14.22 at 3:35 pm

@Linda, post #190:
You’re quite right, this urban sprawl will require major societal changes to deal with it. It’s tied into the affordable housing issue, where to get higher density requires zoning changes, something the NIMBYs fight even though it will be better for the community overall. We need changes like in New Zealand where all larger cities will be re-zoned to allow higher density development. No one in Canada has the balls to pass such a law, so don’t expect too much. The changes in the budget are fluffy window dressing that will have little or no effect on housing availability or affordability. The last hope is higher sustained fuel prices, as I said above.

#202 Phylis on 04.14.22 at 3:54 pm

#16 None on 04.13.22 at 12:34 pm
I needed this.

My relationship this past year failed because an ultimatum was dropped: “Buy a house now or our relationship is over”.

It was terribly difficult to say no to someone I loved so much. Any way you slice it, with the future being so uncertain, buying a house this year, at least from a financial view: “extreme risk, little reward”.

Saying good bye to the love of my life because I cared about her long term financial well being (and mine) was one of the hardest things I’ve had to do in my life.

I miss her every day.
Xxxxxx
It was the first ultimatum, of many.

#203 chalkie on 04.14.22 at 5:18 pm

The millennials being spoiled by the family hand outs, is about to face the real world of home ownership.
Johnny has been spoiled for 20 years & a few months ago, Mom had kicked in $100 grand for his first lift off, well Mom “the bad news is” your money went poof and Johnny may be faced to sell within the year because there is zero equity in the home and he needs to renew his variable rate mortgage for his $950,000 home, the payments are already beyond reach, he is not alone and many many more similar stories coming behind him. As bad as it looks, that now so called high 4% five year rate is still a bargain at next years prices.

#204 Doug in London on 04.14.22 at 9:20 pm

@Phylis, post 202:
It was the first ultimatum, of many.
————————————————
And a wise choice at that.