Seismic

Three days ago the sellers of a multi-million dollar home in an upscale GTA-area hood accepted a conditional offer. Not just conditional upon a successful home inspection, but upon the sale of another property. And they took $100,000 less than asking.

Pre-Covid that would’ve been no biggie. Now it is. The vendors are wise. They have eyes and ears. They can see and sense what’s just occurred in a market where six months ago multiple offers and over-asking bids were the norm. They took the bird in the hand.

Ron’s a long-time house-flogger who checks in from time to time when there’s something worth imparting. This is such a moment. Here is his report:

The last neighbourhoods to overheat in our Bank of Canada-driven boom are the first hoods to cool down. That was one of the take aways from the Monday morning meeting. Agents who toil in the 905 were cutting prices by $100k per visit, while agents who worked closer to the central core were still experiencing reasonable Open House traffic. As you noted in recent Blogs, the great cool down was already being felt six weeks ago in outposts like Milton, K-W, the Hammer, and Niagara.

No doubt there has been a shift, and while I didn’t see any signs of panic in our Zoom meeting, the anxiety was building. There is an old adage in Real Estate, that the sale doesn’t begin until the customer says “No”. There is a good chance that agents who joined this business in the past 5 years have never heard that word. This could be an education.

Listing inventory will slowly build at first, because buyers who have lost many bidding wars will rush in to pick up suddenly available properties. When that headwater is drained, we could see a serious price reduction, Assuming the Lib/NDP coalition and the Bank of Canada doesn’t get cold feet and halt the planned rate increases. Time will tell.

The ground is shifting. On Wednesday morning the central bank will jack its key rate by a half point, effectively doubling it in one stroke. Financial markets are pricing in at least four and maybe six additional increases to take place by Christmas. Mortgage rates have also doubled since 2022 dawned, and will be 5% this summer. This has happened at the same time come-from-behind politicians are slapping new taxes, restrictions and constraints on real estate, from banning non-residents to vacancy taxes, flipping rules, assignment penalties and whacking out-of-province owners. It’s a lethal brew.

RBC is now – shockingly – predicting there could be absolute year/year price declines in Toronto and Vancouver within months. Already, as evidenced here, sale prices have fallen more than 7% in 416 since 2022 dawned. People who bought a month ago, in other words, paid $150,000 too much.

US inflation hits 8.5%. Central banks are coiled.

Inflation is out of control, thanks to Putin, oil, the supply chain, Shanghai, full employment, RTO and post-viral consumer spending. On Tuesday it came in at 8.5% Stateside, suggesting the Fed will hike by a half point next month, then six times more after that. Around the world residential real estate exploded during the pandemic’s cheap rate environment and viral cocooning. Canada was not unique in that. What does make us different is the huge premium for a house in this country relative to average incomes. People here have stretched to buy real estate as no others have dared, running up $1.7 trillion in mortgage debt. This makes families here more vulnerable to a sharp price correction (and negative equity) than those in America, Britain or almost any other nation.

As rates rise, economists say it will cut the borrowing power of new buyers by about a quarter. It means the Spring market is so over. It ended the first week of March.

Besides, what are people obsessed with now?

The return to work. Spring. Kids in school. Being part of a crowd of 50,000 for a Jays game. Travel after two years of drought. Integrating back into the workplace.

“The Toronto PATH is bumping, almost elbow to elbow,” blog dog Jeremy reports this week, “with shops open and live music in the morning. I work at one of the top tech companies on the S&P and we’ve been hitting capacity in our office some days. Lots of people are choosing to work from home but almost as many are choosing to come to the office.”

Exactly. Covid may not be gone, but it’s gone enough. The masks are mostly off. The patina of crisis has dulled. We’re reminded there’s more to life than hunkering in your home office and VPNing the world outside. All the reasons real estate went squirrely – 2% mortgages, a raging pandemic, mandatory WFH, fear of other humans and FOMO – are eroding, or gone. We’re on the other side of the mountain now.

About the picture: “I have a dog that I saw for the blog!” writes Victor. “He’s the mascot for a liquor store in Cook Village in Victoria. He is always very nice…” Plus, he’s employed.  I called Cook Street Liquor and found out that Rufus is 13 now and earns his keep. “He totally takes care of security as well as customer service,” the manager said. – Garth

124 comments ↓

#1 Tony Siamos on 04.12.22 at 2:32 pm

Good!

#2 Shawn on 04.12.22 at 2:35 pm

Colder in Edmonton

#124 JT Dawg on 04.12.22 at 1:13 pm

There is no housing shortage in Canada. … The main issue with Calgary or Edmonton is that the climate is colder.

***************
True that. Freezing here since Saturday. Minus 10 today at noon. Minus 18 with the windchill! Not making this up.

Normal for April 12 is 11 degrees.

Going to be cold for another 5 days at least. Brutal. But affordable.

But we get little rain, so there is that.

#3 Al on 04.12.22 at 2:37 pm

The growing cases of Covid-19 in the country may again make adjustments to the plans of the BoC to start a serious fight against inflation. We will see

No government has the appetite to lock down again. A false fear. – Garth

#4 Ballingsford on 04.12.22 at 2:38 pm

Good to see that people are finally getting out. WFH is.nice, but would be nice to go downtown once in a while and mingle. And maybe buy a larger pair of pants.

I think I got lucky getting a 5 yr fixed closed 6 months ago at 2.25. The variable is almost that today.

#5 TurnerNation on 04.12.22 at 2:40 pm

#40 NOSTRADAMUS on 04.11.22 at 5:37 pm

A scam as old as time.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Robert_Herjavec
Another influential episode in his youth came when Herjavec’s mother was persuaded by a traveling salesman to buy a vacuum cleaner for $500, which was seven weeks’ salary. As a result, Herjavec swore his family would never be taken advantage of again.[5]

—-

The truth is coming out.
We pay high taxes and plunge into record debt for all the amazing stuff we get?
We locked down for the Hospital Capacity? They are playing us so hard.

https://toronto.citynews.ca/2022/04/06/ontario-government-health-care-spending/
“Ontario’s fiscal watchdog says the provincial government’s total health care program spending in 2020 was the lowest in the country.”

— Yep this is WW3. The most vunerable — seniors and children — were targeted.

https://vancouversun.com/news/local-news/covid-19-limits-felt-like-war-on-seniors
“COVID-19: Pandemic limits felt like ‘war’ on B.C. seniors
A new SFU report found seniors suffered more isolation, depression. Some organizations pivoted well to help them, but others didn’t, including long-term care.”

#6 Linda on 04.12.22 at 2:41 pm

‘Rufus’ obviously has no intention of retiring:)

Awaiting with bated breath the BoC announcement. Also anticipating the official inflation rate for the month of March here in Canada. Given that the USA declared an 8.5% rate for March I can’t see how Canada’s official number wouldn’t be 6% plus. Still think our official rate should be much higher, at a minimum mirroring the numbers being posted south of the border.

#7 Søren Angst on 04.12.22 at 2:46 pm

US Fed will hike 0.5% now after that inflation number.

Canada CB may or may not follow suit, either way it is screwed.

A 0.25% hike means the CAD depreciates, imports cost more and add to inflation.

Canada CB hike at 0.5% and the Realtors, Brokers will have an infarction on Zoom. HELOC RE speculator infarctions will come later in the year (’cause RE prices never go down as RE diseased fanatic’s are slow on the uptake).

——————-

I liked “Hair of the Dog” on the window poster with Rufus. At the liquor store threshold real live Rufus looks to me like he’s had a few cocktails before the photo. A tad ruffled looking, hungover.

Man’s best friend and drinking buddy: Rufus, my kind of dog.

——————-

Indices were rebounding until the last hour, Apr 12, 2:39:53 PM UTC-4.

Articles today about how Nasdaq “growth’ stocks back. Ya,

-0.34%

back.

Meanwhile, S&P 500 Energy (Sector)

+2.17%

and that’s ACTUALLY “back” from yesterday.

yeah oil.

yeah maple +0.56%

#8 jess on 04.12.22 at 2:48 pm

Venezuela the permuta market
brokerage houses

…”A parallel black market in dollars quickly sprang up. But so did an unusual third market, known as the permuta, or “swap” market, which took advantage of a loophole: While buying U.S. dollars on the free market was illegal, selling stocks and bonds abroad in exchange for dollars was not.
https://www.occrp.org/en/suisse-secrets/the-savage-years-credit-suisse-and-venezuelas-toxic-bond-market

#9 PeterfromCalgary on 04.12.22 at 2:48 pm

DELETED

#10 bdwy on 04.12.22 at 2:49 pm

I think I got lucky getting a 5 yr fixed closed 6 months ago at 2.25. The variable is almost that today.
…..
sweet. will likely get much sweeter.

——————–

and about the camel and needle thing, if all the border collies ever featured here(and all the others except jack russels) and a decent boat aren’t there, then ‘kingdom of heaven’ where ever it may be, might not be the place for me.

my bet is on we go the same place in the end.

#11 NEVER GIVE UP on 04.12.22 at 2:55 pm

Canada is a nation of soft-hands. Weak, selfish, self-entitled people who have no idea what it is like to defend a country in times of war.

Our unique geography leaves us far from areas of strife. Why should we help Europe with its energy Crisis and help Ukraine at the same time when our dear leader says oil is bad for the environment!

Remember that our closest friend and neighbor is only 56 miles from Russia at its closest point. Some Russians also claim Alaska!.

Russia needs to be reduced economically to the level of North Korea to rein in its ambition.

Note the link about how Canada is doing nothing to solve Europe’s energy problems.

https://uk.style.yahoo.com/its-all-politics-ottawas-planned-oil-gas-boost-forecast-before-putins-war-135211765.html

#12 ogdoad on 04.12.22 at 2:59 pm

Well, as we whizz through space at 60 000 mph I just can’t stop thinking about the cutie at the grass seed store….also, I think I made a senior citizen blush today…that’s a first.

Let the losers lose…let the winners go to space and buy yachts. Let the duped keep thinking that the reason we’re here is to buy a house a look like that person on youtube…

I’ll be gettin’ some!

Og

#13 Søren Angst on 04.12.22 at 3:01 pm

#2 Shawn

SO glad I moved to Italia. Pordenone weather:

Today 18/6
Wed 19/6
Thu 24/9

and unlike you Montreal today (17/5) it ain’t going down to 3/-1 here in Pordenone on Wed the 20th (cold for us at 16/10 the forecast).

As some of the RE diseased fanatics here like to Comment:

‘uppa, ‘uppa, ‘uppa

Except for you colder than a witches papula Canada or wetter than Tsunami Left Coast.

Eat your hearts out Canada – “Il Grande Nord Bianco o Diluvium”.

Baci d’Italia.

#14 YVR Renter on 04.12.22 at 3:01 pm

Lived in Orange County California, Newport Beach/Irvine, for hubby’s job 1997/8. We rented a house. Our neighbors we’re getting divorced. They were upside down on their “owned” house thanks to a HELOC, because things in OC tanked fast. Half of the OC folks were upside down The bank let them off the $40K they owed, and they parted ways. Never say never. It took many years for homes there to come back up. And no one had a million dollar mortgage then.

#15 bdwy on 04.12.22 at 3:06 pm

#2 Shawn on 04.12.22 at 2:35 pm
Colder in Edmonton

Going to be cold for another 5 days at least. Brutal. But affordable.
——————
hey most of our ‘rain’ fell as ice today in balmy lower brainland. i shovelled the deck twice already .

East coast still waiting for a spring day also i’ve heard.

maybe CO2 does nothing the net energy balance of the globe? the models have been proven to be very weak.

#16 Grandv!ew on 04.12.22 at 3:07 pm

I would love to know who the heroes are who adopt the YOLO attitude and buy real estate in Canada right now…
The headwinds for real estate are clear like never before.
-Rampant inflation (its not even important what is reported as a percentage, or if it is true or correct. People are not able to sustain everyday life and massaging the reported number is meaningless in the face of reality on the ground).
-Rates and mortgage rates must go up in the face of inflation or we are risking the hyperinflation or loss of the value of our currency.
– Crazy Putin is establishing the gold standard for his Ruble and potentially some other or more currencies based on gold reserves, oil, caviar :) or some other REAL tangible stuff. This trend will most likely not going to succeed (in the long run) however in the meantime (until things crystalize further) people are asking what is our national currency guaranteed by?
Perhaps the promise that we are not going to default or get downgraded (as we did in early 90’s), or the fact our PM believes that budget is going to balance itself. If present administration is deciding (as they are) to not support the oil or mining in our country where will the added value come from? How do we increase the economic output so that budget balances itself (I often think that’s what he meant to say). We can not afford to allow inflation and semantics on strength of our currency, society, and economic system to be undermined. Thus, the rates must go up and they will take mortgage rates with them up as well. If the real estate market gets sacrificed in the process and if its only real estate that gets sacrificed, we got it good and got off easy. After all it was, and it is only paper gains that are not realized and most likely they would never be realized since God forbid someone decides to cash-in and rent. That is against the logic…. or is it?

#17 crowdedelevatorfartz on 04.12.22 at 3:20 pm

This rate hike and the ensuing RE correction is about 3 years overdue.
Bring it on….. in spades.

@#2 Shawn
“Freezing here since Saturday. Minus 10 today at noon. Minus 18 with the windchill! Not making this up.

Normal for April 12 is 11 degrees.”

+++

Yep.
Just had snow and hail in Burnaby at noon. 2cel and feels like -4cel.
Normal temp is 12 cel.
Hummingbirds not impressed.

#18 Flop… on 04.12.22 at 3:22 pm

The Vancouver Report.

Record house prices in South Vancouver.

Record drug use and graffiti on the Downtown Eastside.

Vancouver Westside?

Don’t know, nobody lives there anymore to ask what going on…

M47BC

#19 Doug t on 04.12.22 at 3:22 pm

HEY thats my buddy at the liquor store – love that pooch

#20 Captain Uppa on 04.12.22 at 3:24 pm

I’m still waiting for a Garth Turner’s top places to live in Canada post.

All this talk of hinterlands and bunny patches, makes me wanna see said list above. Sans the obvious that Orillia is not worth $1M avg. home price aspect.

Just a little fun aside.

#21 toronto1 on 04.12.22 at 3:32 pm

8.5 % is a huge number at this point the BOC and FED should really be considering .75 to 1.00 basis point increases. at least once or twice. Should inflation continue in the doble digits there will be big problems.

The drop in RE is going to be painfully for many people, areas outside the core always rise last and fall first. They are normally lower priced homes or condos, the other point is that they also attract a lot of amateur investors who think that by renting out two units they can cash flow there houses vs a condo in the city.

HELOC money is the main issue as these amateur investors tend to be be the ones who used HELOC to secure there investment property mortgages. This crown is hyper sensitive to any rate increases and will not rush but STAMPEDE for the exits at any sign of it going bad. Irony is that these same folks are the ones who helped propel these markets into nosebleed territory will now be responsible for the dramatic drop as well.

there will be some panic after tomorrows hike and lots more inventory will start to become available in May and June, after a few more high inflation prints and the BOC second .5 increase- the realty will hit home and then you will see some huge changes

#22 The Totally Unbiased, Highly Intelligent, Rational Observer on 04.12.22 at 3:37 pm

“And going to the center will actually accomplish something. Like securing power.” – Garth at #132

Going to the CENTER of what is actually the FAR LEFT will only accomplish the LEFT’s agenda.

What sort of “power” will you have secured by going to the CENTER of what is actually the FAR LEFT if the only “power” you will then be given is the “power” to carry out and accomplish the LEFT’s agenda?

Also, NOTE WELL that even going to the CENTER of what is actually the FAR LEFT might not be enough to secure “power” in this time of extremes.

Why not just admit that the RIGHT has already lost and that the FAR LEFT is now running the show in the asylum? The RIGHT can adopt all the LEFT’s policies and kid itself that it is in the CENTER of what is actually the FAR LEFT, but it is really just fooling its own self.

#23 When is a deal ...not a deal? on 04.12.22 at 3:44 pm

Now I see why Sail Away needs to compensate for his lack of investment prowess. Decades ago, his family scoured the country for the least expensive land money could buy … and then moved there.

Reminds me of my buddy who bragged how he paid the least amount for a lot in a new development. 18 months later, his new house is situated on a pie shaped lot, tucked tightly in between his neighbours, with a big yellow fire hydrant staring you in the face each time you come home. Not to mention his one and only view looks right into his neighbors back yard. Many of his neighbors will enjoy nice views for as long as they live there.

But hey, he paid less than the others …. His only saving grace is that he is not in Minnesota or the Dakotas.

#24 Sail Away on 04.12.22 at 3:47 pm

Some info on the benefits of offshore corporations:

https://www.bdc-canada.com/BDC/services/offshore_corporations.htm

#25 Damifino on 04.12.22 at 3:53 pm

When that headwater is drained, we could see a serious price reduction, Assuming the Lib/NDP coalition and the Bank of Canada doesn’t get cold feet and halt the planned rate increases. Time will tell.
——————————

Is it now simply accepted fact that the central bank is not the sole arbiter of interest rates in this country? What does the Lib/NDP coalition have to do with it?

#26 Dogs Not Barking on 04.12.22 at 3:55 pm

#3 Al on 04.12.22 at 2:37 pm
The growing cases of Covid-19 in the country may again make adjustments to the plans of the BoC to start a serious fight against inflation. We will see

No government has the appetite to lock down again. A false fear. – Garth

+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

Agreed. When you watch the news, pay careful attention to what is left out of the news stories, and that is the how many people are actually having severe outcomes due to the new variants vs. how many are still in trouble from the old variants.

The old variants were much worse and might still be floating around in isolated pockets. The various provincial health departments absolutely have the ability to provide a breakdown of these data, but do not.

It’s plainly obvious that if most of the people having severe outcomes are finally succumbing to the effects of an older variant, then the spread of the new variant means very little.

The roar of the dogs not barking is deafening.

In other words, vaccines work. – Garth

#27 Steven on 04.12.22 at 4:01 pm

Waaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaa?

Inflation is out of control essentially from:

CENTRAL BANK PRINTING.

Funny how this is not included in the Putin, etc examples.

Why?

And it’s NOT TRANSITORY, so please do not mention that…the bluff has been called.

#28 Muad'dib on 04.12.22 at 4:19 pm

There is something odd about the photo of Rufus. Everything tells me it’s his mirror image, sufuR, by which I mean to say the picture has been reversed, possibly for aesthetic reasons. The cold beer and wine shelves of the Cook Street Liquor Store are on the left as you enter, not the right. However, if the picture actually has been reversed, the words on the poster of Rufus would be backwards, which they clearly are not. So, either this photo has been taken in an alternate universe, one in which the cooler shelves are on the right of the entrance, or the poster is actually backwards in the original, which also seems unlikely. The other simpler possibility is that the picture was taken at the earlier incarnation of the Cook Street Liquor Store, which has not existed for some years now. Looks like I will have to hoof it down there to see for myself — and pick up some Hoyne pilsner at the same time.

It existed today when I called. Rufus, too. – Garth

#29 red falcon on 04.12.22 at 4:19 pm

House prices always upah upah???

Interest rates for brrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr.

#30 Kona on 04.12.22 at 4:19 pm

There’s a whole generation of home buyers who have never seen 5% mortgage rates and they are in for one heck of a shock.

I live in Orleans, a ‘burb of sleepy Ottawa. New town homes are now listed for $800+. One not far from me is listed at $818. That’s a 18’ wide home and attached that on a good day takes you 40 minutes to drive to downtown Ottawa.

With the minimum down payment of $56,800 the purchaser of this new vinyl wrapped home will be looking at a monthly mortgage of $4600 at 5% interest. Throw in property taxes, insurance and utilities and you have monthly carry costs of $5500. This for a town home that currently rents for about $2200 – $2300 a month in Orleans.

#31 alexinvestor on 04.12.22 at 4:21 pm

There’s always winners and losers, after all the 8.5% is an overall rate … some people will experience higher, some lower. I welcome higher inflation to inflate away my fixed debt.

#32 The West on 04.12.22 at 4:22 pm

#11 NEVER GIVE UP

Like most empires, the Anglo American Establishment now fades into the sunset. The population of Canada has no business in European affairs. None.

Feel free to send your money and sons off to the slaughter. I’m good.

#33 Two-thirds on 04.12.22 at 4:28 pm

Just a brief edit:

“Inflation is out of control, thanks to Putin, oil, the supply chain, Shanghai, full employment, RTO and post-viral consumer spending.”

Fixed:

Inflation is out of control, thanks to unbridled, unprecedented deficit spending and monetary injections during covid. Putin, oil, the supply chain, Shanghai, full employment, RTO and post-viral consumer spending are now adding fuel to the fire.

The above aside, how many times have such aggressive rate hikes cooled the economy WITHOUT tipping it into recession, historically speaking?

Rates will rise until they can rise no more, and come down in a hurry, once the economy hits the wall again.

Will the latter be in 2023 or 2024?

#34 thebarold on 04.12.22 at 4:31 pm

the BoC cut rates 3 time in the *month* of March 2020. Each cut was 50 bp. As always fast to react on the downside, slow to come back. Maybe in time for the next recession and to start cutting again, but likely it won’t be enough.

#35 Muad'dib on 04.12.22 at 4:51 pm

It existed today when I called. Rufus, too. – Garth

I do not doubt the existence of the Cook Street store, nor of Rufus, whom I have seen there on several occasions (possibly too many, if you get my meaning). The picture, however, appears to have been taken at the earlier location of the store, less than a block away. The disconnect between what I know of the current store’s layout and that of the picture is what gave me pause — a punster would have spelled that last word differently, but I am trying to reform my ways. Retired English teachers are the worst.

#36 Dave on 04.12.22 at 4:54 pm

Work from office reality: everyone is just working remotely from their office, the term “in-office collaboration” is a crock of you know what, and working parents (at least the ones who actually like being around their partner/kid(s) more) are questioning why they are losing 2-3 hrs a day away from their families to spend it in an environment that hasn’t really changed since the Mad Men era… when over the last two years, a much more efficient, inclusive model transformed how we can actually work.

Just go to work. Be a role model for those kiddies. – Garth

#37 Ponzius Pilatus on 04.12.22 at 5:03 pm

Fuel cost drive inflation to a 40 year high in the States.
So what would a smart consumer do?
Well I for one would:
1. Drive less.
2. Get rid of the F-150.
Go electric, but only as a short term solution.
See items 1&2.
And plant a garden and trees.
And move to a smaller place with a community spirit.
Going backwards is the new forward.

#38 Chris L. on 04.12.22 at 5:07 pm

BANNED

#39 crowdedelevatorfartz on 04.12.22 at 5:07 pm

@#36 Dave
“…are questioning why they are losing 2-3 hrs a day away from their families to spend it in an environment that hasn’t really changed since the Mad Men era…”

+++
Posibly because some workers will slack off when not supervised.
Or
They may be tempted to swill a bit while “working” at home
Or
The may become injured at home and sue the employer for WCB payments…

https://www.uvic.ca/hr/assets/docs/working-remotely/rwa-forms/home-office-safety-checklist.pdf

WCB inspectors visiting your messy home for a “safe work assessment”.
Awesome.

#40 Sail Away on 04.12.22 at 5:14 pm

One very nice development from the WFH phase is video meetings, which make it so easy to share content in real time.

The plain vanilla telecon is gone forever…. and it’s about time!

I hear nobody on Zoom wears pants. – Garth

#41 Dave on 04.12.22 at 5:19 pm

“Just go to work. Be a role model for those kiddies. – Garth”

Lol, we’ve all been at work the last two years – and at the same time finally been able to be a present in our kid’s lives… talk about being a real role model.

#42 T-Man on 04.12.22 at 5:24 pm

Hey, why not blame Putin for everything wrong in the “west” ? Our gubmint had nothing to do with it. They are deflecting blame for their failed policies. Instead of negotiations, the kindergarten governments of the west shot the world in the foot with their sanction anybody who doesn’t bend over to their dictats train. Except for China, India, Latin America, Africa, and the Middle East, that is. Who’s really isolated? The Colonial, Exceptional West.

#43 Sail Away on 04.12.22 at 5:24 pm

“I hear nobody on Zoom wears pants. – Garth”

———-

What happens on Zoom stays on Zoom.

#44 crowdedelevatorfartz on 04.12.22 at 5:29 pm

@#38 Chris L
BANNED

+++

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eOifa1WrOnQ

#45 Jason on 04.12.22 at 5:33 pm

Absolutely the Conservatives need to move towards the center if they are going to win. As much as cancel culture and “woke-ism” are annoying, social conservatism (i.e. the Christian right, Pro-Life, etc.) is down right scary for most Canadians. What’s happening in some of the US states right now with abortion laws can easily be brought to focus in a general election campaign and if the Conservatives are to even hint at being receptive to social conservatism, they will lose.

Basically two camps that would work for most Canadians:

Fiscally Conservative / Socially Liberal (think Progressive Conservatives pre Reform party).

Fiscally Centrist / Socially Liberal (think Chretian / Martin Liberals).

But given the choice of Progressive Socialism and anything to do with Social Conservatism, it’s clear the majority of Canadians will hold their noses and vote for the former. Every time.

#46 yorkville renter on 04.12.22 at 5:33 pm

#41 – Dave –

Years ago, way before I had kids, I was in a taxi heading to O’Hare or Midway to fly home from a work trip. The cabbie told me something that I remember to this day.

Basically he said:
I think it’s so funny people move to the burbs so their kid has space, but they commute for hours every day and don’t get to see their kids anymore. It’s crazy!

I get that! I totally do.

But when your kid sees you sitting and looking at a screen all day or taking calls (or worse, silently being one of 40 people on a zoom) then there’s no mystery and you might seem kinda lame.

if you leave the house it’s “daddy’s going to work” — more or less, it’s been that way for thousands of years

#47 DON on 04.12.22 at 5:38 pm

#41 Dave on 04.12.22 at 5:19 pm
“Just go to work. Be a role model for those kiddies. – Garth”

Lol, we’ve all been at work the last two years – and at the same time finally been able to be a present in our kid’s lives… talk about being a real role model.

******

True enough.

#48 rufus' house on 04.12.22 at 5:38 pm

https://www.google.com/maps/place/Cook+St+Liquor/@48.4148428,-123.3567742,3a,75y,90t/data=!3m8!1e2!3m6!1sAF1QipOUoUf7v3EYoOT8rJwDqdh1KfgUfKRx8KjYmr43!2e10!3e12!6shttps:%2F%2Flh5.googleusercontent.com%2Fp%2FAF1QipOUoUf7v3EYoOT8rJwDqdh1KfgUfKRx8KjYmr43%3Dw203-h152-k-no!7i3264!8i2448!4m5!3m4!1s0x548f74ecef41a395:0xf3e66969b5bf89e8!8m2!3d48.4148428!4d-123.3567742

#49 ElGatoNeroYVR on 04.12.22 at 5:49 pm

#36 Dave on 04.12.22 at 4:54 pm
Work from office reality: everyone is just working remotely « » to spend it in an environment that hasn’t really changed since the Mad Men era… when over the last two years, a much more efficient, inclusive model transformed how we can actually work.
================
After i managed to pick myself off the flor from laughing so hard I am willig to admit that amybe in some comanies vertain positions can be WFH.
In my line of work most valued employees ,especially the under 40 crowd but plenty of more tenured as well are shocked when being exposed to the concept of doing the tasks the management outlines for them , following SOPˋs to the letter and being held responsible for achieving KPIˋs.
Aparently most of them want to do the job they way they want it with a workload they feel acceptable. It puzzles them to no end when it is being pointed out that they were hired to do a specific task following a certain SOP and achieving a minimum of set KPIˋs.
I am not saying that a lot of companies cannot improve thier approach to innovation and staff engagement but we also have to acknolwedge that as a worker you get hired to do a certain job the way the company wants it done and if you find yourself unexpectantly in a more traditional, “mad men” style well :first you didnˋt do your homework when accepting the job (glassdoor ,indeed comments at a minimum) and second, you can always vote with your feet (you will not be missed).
Life is too short in practice to fight the system, that is better left to anonymouse posts on Internet blogs.
My recommandation is to be pragmatic, focus on the longn term goal of making the most amount of money in the shortest amount of time and than you chose how or if to work in the traditional sense. All else generally speaking with very few exceptions is pretty words to make the gullable feel better and maximize the productivity / profits.

#50 T-Man on 04.12.22 at 5:49 pm

The “west” has been exceptionally picking on the rest of the world for centuries, in my opinion. Since the days of the opium wars, and the British East India Company, at least. Now Blackrock, Statestreet, Vanguard and their ilk control 20 trillion $ in assets. Only the U.S.A. and China are on the same level. Who is The Empire of Lies, and why are they so evil?

#51 The Totally Unbiased, Highly Intelligent, Rational Observer on 04.12.22 at 5:53 pm

The Package Deal

Some people want to be socially liberal AND fiscally liberal.

Other people think that it is possible to be socially liberal BUT fiscally conservative.

The problem is that being socially liberal (i.e., immoral) and fiscally liberal (i.e., irresponsible) tend to go together as a package deal. You do not get one without the other.

#52 WTF on 04.12.22 at 5:56 pm

Surprised over zealous BC Liquor Inspectors haven’t shut down the Cook St Liquor store.

Rufus is under age!

#53 Observer on 04.12.22 at 6:07 pm

#52 WTF on 04.12.22 at 5:56 pm
Surprised over zealous BC Liquor Inspectors haven’t shut down the Cook St Liquor store.

Rufus is under age!

^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^
Not in dog years!

#54 Under the radar on 04.12.22 at 6:09 pm

No surprise prices come off their highs and slowly slide as rates rise. If rates run up quickly I do think that the $1.4 million cookie cutter subdivision homes in North Oshawa or Milton could fall by 30 or 40%. I also think a SFH with dirt in 416 is a pretty safe bet for the long term.

Also, to keep in mind is the cost of labour , materials and land. None of these prices are coming down anytime soon. It cost a lot of money to build a brand new cheap house. And it cost a lot more to build a brand new high quality house. Prices of new condos in Yonge Eglinton node average $1400 a square foot with a 90% sold rate , I highly doubt builders will be lowering their prices on new condos. It’s the speculators who will be running for the exits when they have to close who get slaughtered

#55 Brad on 04.12.22 at 6:26 pm

“Inflation is out of control, thanks to Putin, oil, the supply chain, Shanghai, full employment, RTO and post-viral consumer spending”

The Fed printing 80% of all US dollars in existence since 2020 have anything to do with it?

#56 Rava on 04.12.22 at 6:38 pm

I live in Langford (suburb of Victoria) and I’m renting a two bedroom, 1.5 bathroom, apartment for $1550 + electricity ($50 max) + parking ($75) in a purpose built rental building. With the BC NDP government, raising rents is limited to CPI. I have the means to buy a condo so I looked around. Something similar to my place would cost minimum $550,000 (probably more like $600,000). I would need a 20% down payment ($110,000 ). My mortgage would be approximately $2,300 + 300 maintenance fee + $200 taxes + $50 insurance + $10 water. Total = $2860 a month. If I invested the 100,000, I think I could expect 5% a year return. So that’s a $416 per month opportunity cost. So really it’s $3276 a month to buy vs $1550 to rent. That means buying is more than twice what it costs to rent. Doesn’t it make more sense to invest the $1726 a month in RSP savings and TFSAs?

#57 salonist on 04.12.22 at 6:49 pm

2021
100,000 new peoples settled in british colombia
vancouver island,banana trees in the south
no rain

#58 Philco on 04.12.22 at 6:55 pm

#44 crowdedelevatorfartz on 04.12.22 at 5:29 pm
@#38 Chris L
BANNED
+++
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eOifa1WrOnQ
===============
Haha

#59 crowdedelevatorfartz on 04.12.22 at 6:55 pm

@343 Sail Away
“What happens on Zoom stays on Zoom.”

+++

Not if you’re a Liberal MP…..

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dcsjPmgEQjo

#60 Alex on 04.12.22 at 6:56 pm

OTTAWA, Dec 9 (Reuters) – Canada hopes more immigration can boost economic growth and allay a worsening post-pandemic labor shortage, but new migrants could pour gasoline on that red-hot housing market that the central bank has warned was stoked by “a sudden influx of investors.”

Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s administration is on track to meet this year’s goal of 401,000 new permanent residents and is set to revise up next year’s target of 411,000, a government source said.

Your comment, Garth?
https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/canada-opens-door-immigrants-adding-fuel-hot-housing-market-2021-12-09/

#61 crowdedelevatorfartz on 04.12.22 at 6:59 pm

@#50 Troll Man

“Who is The Empire of Lies, and why are they so evil?”

+++
Luckily we have freedom of speech and you can voice your opinion on blogs like this.
I would highly recommend you visit Russia and China and ask Putin and Xi that question.

We’ll wait for you to report back.

#62 Millennial 1%er on 04.12.22 at 7:01 pm

If remote work is so dead then why did we just hire 5 new remote Toronto workers at a cool 450k per year

#63 T-Man on 04.12.22 at 7:01 pm

DELETED

#64 crowdedelevatorfartz on 04.12.22 at 7:04 pm

@#42 Troll-man
“Who’s really isolated? The Colonial, Exceptional West.”

+++

We must be exceptional.
China and Russia always seem to be trying to steal our patents and technology.
Great mother Russia hasn’t been first in anything except perhaps Sputnik and alcoholism.
Sad really.

#65 Woger Wabbit on 04.12.22 at 7:13 pm

#41 Dave on 04.12.22 at 5:19 pm

Lol, we’ve all been at work the last two years – and at the same time finally been able to be a present in our kid’s lives… talk about being a real role model.

======================================

An inert slug in front of a screen – yay! Something for kids to aspire to.

It does seem many are reaching that lofty goal. So keep up the good work.

#66 TurnerNation on 04.12.22 at 7:21 pm

Inflation! My signed copy of Money Road is going now for $550. Inquire within.

— Kicking us off the land. Removal of any (imagined) property rights.

https://www.blogto.com/real-estate-toronto/2022/04/just-became-illegal-build-bunch-land-in-around-toronto/
“The Liberal Party is doing its best to deliver on a campaign promise to formally deem 25 per cent of the nation’s land and water as protected in the coming years, adding close to 1,000 more hectares of green space in Toronto and nearby Ajax to the country’s Protected and Conserved Areas Database this week.”

— Food inflation. This can only raise food prices, buck passed down the chain to us.

“The Globe and Mail reports in its Tuesday, April 12, edition that more than 900 workers at Metro’s Toronto-area distribution centre ratified a new 4-1/2-year collective agreement Friday…. warehouse workers in Etobicoke, Ont., will receive an average wage increase of 15.8 per cent over the lifetime of the new deal. The union said the new collective agreement also includes higher shift premiums for freezer work, a shortened wage progression to reach the top rate, improvements to pensions and benefits and no concessions” (stockwatch.com)


— This WW3 is for our minds. Every telescreen, every tech company. All in the family:

“Marc Bernays Randolph (born April 29, 1958) is an American tech entrepreneur, advisor and speaker.[1] He is the co-founder and first CEO of Netflix.[2]”
“One of Randolph’s paternal great-granduncles was psychoanalysis pioneer Sigmund Freud. Another paternal great-uncle of Randolph was Edward Bernays, an Austrian-American pioneer in the field of public relations and propaganda.[9]”
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Marc_Randolph

#67 Tom from Mississauga on 04.12.22 at 7:23 pm

Biggest cause of inflation Garth is Boomer retirements, know lots that have bowed out since 2020, likely happening across the West.

#68 Sail Away on 04.12.22 at 7:25 pm

#23 When is a deal …not a deal? on 04.12.22 at 3:44 pm

Now I see why Sail Away needs to compensate for his lack of investment prowess. Decades ago, his family scoured the country for the least expensive land money could buy … and then moved there.

———

Yes, it’s sort of a point of pride. Builds character. Hopefully we instilled the same in the kids.

Speaking of… our daughter is currently living and working at a remote sheep station in Australia’s outback.

You survive the hardscrabble, you can make it anywhere.

#69 The real Kip (Ret) on 04.12.22 at 7:36 pm

So US inflation hits 8.5% and the Fed will hike rates 6 more times to what? 3%, maybe? There’s an elephant in the room here. They will need rates to hit 9-10% to fight 8.5% inflation. Same story with our clowns at the BoC.

Central bank rates are not chartered bank rates nor consumer loan rates. Surely you know that. – Garth

#70 Philco on 04.12.22 at 7:40 pm

DELETED

#71 Flop… on 04.12.22 at 7:45 pm

Now that Pierre Poilievre has solved the housing crisis in Vancouver, if he could come back next week and show everyone how to drive properly, and the right amount of drugs to take, well, that would be swell…

M47BC

#72 Shawn on 04.12.22 at 7:45 pm

How much FED Money Printing?

#55 Brad on 04.12.22 at 6:26 pm
“Inflation is out of control, thanks to Putin, oil, the supply chain, Shanghai, full employment, RTO and post-viral consumer spending”

The Fed printing 80% of all US dollars in existence since 2020 have anything to do with it?

****************************
That sounds exaggerated.

But granted a good part of the inflation must be do to added money supply including money “printing” (whatever that is)

M2 is up about 41% and that would mean 29% of current M2 dollars are new since the start of the pandemic. Not 80% and not all of those were “printed” by the FED. Much was created by private sector borrowing.

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/M2SL

How about M3? Under current definitions it looks like M3 is pretty much the same as M2. Weirdly the M3 graph is in dollars while the M2 in billions but the amounts are about the same.

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MABMM301USM189S

#73 Ronaldo on 04.12.22 at 7:47 pm

#39 Crowded E.F.

Posibly because some workers will slack off when not supervised.
Or
They may be tempted to swill a bit while “working” at home
Or
The may become injured at home and sue the employer for WCB payments…
—————————————————————
Or double their incomes by:

https://www.wsj.com/articles/these-people-who-work-from-home-have-a-secret-they-have-two-jobs-11628866529

#74 Flop… on 04.12.22 at 7:49 pm

#66 TurnerNation on 04.12.22 at 7:21 pm

Inflation! My signed copy of Money Road is going now for $550. Inquire within.

/////////////////////////////

I went the other way.

Now that Melbourne has Garbage Police, I notified them last night if they find any Garth Turner books in the trash to send them back to Flopville, Vancouver…

M47BC

#75 Grunt on 04.12.22 at 7:55 pm

I heard Chuck & Camilla are coming. But not anywhere near us. I’m sure they said its mangy parts of Canada for the beloved duo. Like NFL & NWT and of course Ottawa.

#76 Always late to the party on 04.12.22 at 8:06 pm

#3 AL
…………………………
The growing cases of Covid-19 in the country may again make adjustments to the plans of the BoC to start a serious fight against inflation. We will see

No government has the appetite to lock down again. A false fear. – Garth

…………………………..

Finally!!!!! the government is on the same page as all the business owners and citizens of Canada.

#77 Dave on 04.12.22 at 8:11 pm

#65 Woger Wabbit on 04.12.22 at 7:13 pm

An inert slug in front of a screen – yay! Something for kids to aspire to.

It does seem many are reaching that lofty goal. So keep up the good work.

====================

I think you may have taken my role model statement out of context. I really don’t think kids care what their parents do for work. But I do think they care if you have real time to be present with them each day – that’s how you can be a real role model. And in terms of choice of work, I happen to love computer work, as do many (and aren’t essentially all office jobs done 100% on computers now anyways – and didn’t we prove the last two years we don’t need to be in an office to do it) – so what’s the big deal if it’s done from home and we can have a better family life?

#78 JEFF13 on 04.12.22 at 8:18 pm

BMO think the budget housing plan will not work…it is too bad you cannot print houses as easily as you print money.

#79 Ronaldo on 04.12.22 at 8:19 pm

#54 Under the radar on 04.12.22 at 6:09 pm
No surprise prices come off their highs and slowly slide as rates rise. If rates run up quickly I do think that the $1.4 million cookie cutter subdivision homes in North Oshawa or Milton could fall by 30 or 40%. I also think a SFH with dirt in 416 is a pretty safe bet for the long term.

Also, to keep in mind is the cost of labour , materials and land. None of these prices are coming down anytime soon. It cost a lot of money to build a brand new cheap house. And it cost a lot more to build a brand new high quality house. Prices of new condos in Yonge Eglinton node average $1400 a square foot with a 90% sold rate , I highly doubt builders will be lowering their prices on new condos. It’s the speculators who will be running for the exits when they have to close who get slaughtered
—————————————————————-
Yes, building costs have gone up but not near as much as the cost of the land which is where most of the value is and which can go to zero as it did in the early 80’s in some parts of the country. You could purchase a house for the cost of building it and the land was free. And it took 20 or so years for the price of the home to return to its pre crash high. Garth will remember that. So if people think that these current prices cannot correct by 40% think again. In Vancouver Mt. Pleasant area for example a 29 ft. lot has risen in price from a half million
to 2.5 million since the high in 2008. I could easlily see that value drop by 1 million as this is where most of the illusionary value has been attributed to. I have lived through three crashes and will probably live to see the next one too.

#80 Dave on 04.12.22 at 8:21 pm

#46 yorkville renter on 04.12.22 at 5:33 pm

But when your kid sees you sitting and looking at a screen all day or taking calls (or worse, silently being one of 40 people on a zoom) then there’s no mystery and you might seem kinda lame.

if you leave the house it’s “daddy’s going to work” — more or less, it’s been that way for thousands of years

==============

“Daddy’s going to work” can be a 5 second walk to a separate office now vs a 2-3 hour round trip. Imagine what you could have done with your family with all that extra time… there’s better ways to live now vs how it’s been done the last thousand years.

Not really. There have always been unambitious people. – Garth

#81 Brilliant minds commenting on 04.12.22 at 8:23 pm

#37 Ponzious Pilates

Fuel cost drive inflation to a 40 year high in the States.
So what would a smart consumer do?
Well I for one would:
1. Drive less.
2. Get rid of the F-150.
Go electric, but only as a short term solution.
See items 1&2.
And plant a garden and trees.
And move to a smaller place with a community spirit.
Going backwards is the new forward.

^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^

Don’t forget to keep voting for the sharp-shooter precision team of Biden/Harris!

That’s the real recipe for personal success if you live down in the USA.

You missed that in your diatribe.

#82 Old Boot on 04.12.22 at 8:30 pm

Exercise your right to free speech before it’s gone.

https://www.canada.ca/en/canadian-heritage/campaigns/action-plan-combatting-hate.html

#83 Ronaldo on 04.12.22 at 8:39 pm

#67 Tom from Mississauga on 04.12.22 at 7:23 pm
Biggest cause of inflation Garth is Boomer retirements, know lots that have bowed out since 2020, likely happening across the West.
——————————————————————
How on earth is that a cause for inflation? Not surprising that some of the boomers are retiring now since the youngest of the boomers are now 58 and the oldest like myself at 75 and retired over 20 years like many others my age. Heck, my son, a GenXer is 51 and retired. Why not blame the GenXers, the oldest are now 57 and am sure a lot of them could pack it in now. Maybe time to lay off the Boomers and concentrate more on the GenXers or have we forgotten about that generation. Certainly seems so.

#84 Observer on 04.12.22 at 8:44 pm

#67 Tom from Mississauga on 04.12.22 at 7:23 pm
Biggest cause of inflation Garth is Boomer retirements, know lots that have bowed out since 2020, likely happening across the West.

^^^^^^^^^^^^^^

Tell us you didn’t major in economics in university without telling us exactly. Actually, did you make it to university?

#85 Satori on 04.12.22 at 8:58 pm

#11 NEVER GIVE UP on 04.12.22 at 2:55 pm
Our unique geography leaves us far from areas of strife.
————————————————-
If either Russia or the US send a bomb, it will be intersected above Canada. Think about it.

#86 David Snorfler on 04.12.22 at 9:10 pm

Canada has bet the whole country on RE. It can’t see a private sector fail like in the US, it’s impossible because it’s fully government backed. It will never fail because people believe it never will.

There is still a huge amount of room to grow home prices. Investment banks could get involved and take 50% of the stake for first-time owners, and share some of the interest to get some of that juicy equity.

Homeowners are not affected by increasing RE because they sell & buy simultaneously. If interest rates increase to 15%, it won’t affect them either because inflation also forces wages higher.

The government has shown persistent policy changes that increase the amount of money first-time buyers have to spend. No reason this should stop.

RE and construction can sustain GDP growth for years to come and keep the gravy train flowing.

No, I don’t like it – But if you ever want to have a family, buy as soon as you possibly can. A women’s nesting instinct means RE-owning males are much more attractive. Women want security, and men want women.

It’ll never change.

#87 Dave on 04.12.22 at 9:35 pm

“ Not really. There have always been unambitious people. – Garth”

Leaders included!! And lazy leadership relies on physical proximity… to play the game… and to monitor their lazy employees I suppose haha! But in the landscape that’s taken shape over the last two years, it’s been proven that ambitious people can succeed whether in an office or remotely… so what’s the big deal if an ambitious leader or employee wants to avoid the office and spend more time with their family in the process!

#88 crowdedelevatorfartz on 04.12.22 at 9:43 pm

@#57 salonist
“vancouver island,banana trees in the south
no rain…”

++++
Thats all well and fine until….. the invasive Italian Wall LIZARDS!
:0

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/invasive-wall-lizards-1.6034646

#89 Idiocy on 04.12.22 at 9:47 pm

to comment 86 David Snorfler

If interest rates get to 15 % there will be no economy.
I think you forgot to put the / sarcasm annotation on your post.
I mean, you can’t seriously believe what you posted.

#90 yorkville renter on 04.12.22 at 9:57 pm

#80 – Dave –

In 23+ years of work I’ve never had a commute longer than 30 minutes and my current commute is 10 minutes walk from my house to my office.

Most of my life I choose to live based on my commute… but now that I own a company I choose my office based on where I live.

I agree with your assessment on how the time can be better spent – I disagree with the premise of why a long
commute is necessary.

#91 ElGatoNeroYVR on 04.12.22 at 9:59 pm

#83 Ronaldo on 04.12.22 at 8:39 pm

Yes ,we GenX are the forgotten generation and we learned to like it that way.We slowly and quitely acumulate wealth ,fly under the radar living the life and either enjoying early (semi-)retirement or getting ready to do so real soon while blaming the evil boomers and the lazy,entitled Millenials,Z,Y,P,Q for all that is wrong in the world and with the society nowadays.
Please don’t put the spotlight on us, forget that letter even exists in the alphabet.

#92 DON on 04.12.22 at 10:07 pm

#57 salonist on 04.12.22 at 6:49 pm
2021
100,000 new peoples settled in british colombia
vancouver island,banana trees in the south
no rain

******

No rain????

Ha ha ha ah ha ha ha. Just some spring snow.

#93 DON on 04.12.22 at 10:10 pm

#86 David Snorfler on 04.12.22 at 9:10 pm
Canada has bet the whole country on RE. It can’t see a private sector fail like in the US, it’s impossible because it’s fully government backed. It will never fail because people believe it never will.

There is still a huge amount of room to grow home prices. Investment banks could get involved and take 50% of the stake for first-time owners, and share some of the interest to get some of that juicy equity.

Homeowners are not affected by increasing RE because they sell & buy simultaneously. If interest rates increase to 15%, it won’t affect them either because inflation also forces wages higher.

The government has shown persistent policy changes that increase the amount of money first-time buyers have to spend. No reason this should stop.

RE and construction can sustain GDP growth for years to come and keep the gravy train flowing.

No, I don’t like it – But if you ever want to have a family, buy as soon as you possibly can. A women’s nesting instinct means RE-owning males are much more attractive. Women want security, and men want women.

It’ll never change.

*********

It is bound to change but you just might stay the same with that thinking. But I don’t know…

#94 Cici on 04.12.22 at 10:13 pm

I’m not surprised that Rufus is a good employee. He has very deep, intelligent eyes. I think he’d be surprised to learn that he’s an employee though, cause I’m pretty sure he thinks he’s the boss!

#95 DON on 04.12.22 at 10:21 pm

#83 Ronaldo on 04.12.22 at 8:39 pm
#67 Tom from Mississauga on 04.12.22 at 7:23 pm
Biggest cause of inflation Garth is Boomer retirements, know lots that have bowed out since 2020, likely happening across the West.
——————————————————————
How on earth is that a cause for inflation? Not surprising that some of the boomers are retiring now since the youngest of the boomers are now 58 and the oldest like myself at 75 and retired over 20 years like many others my age. Heck, my son, a GenXer is 51 and retired. Why not blame the GenXers, the oldest are now 57 and am sure a lot of them could pack it in now. Maybe time to lay off the Boomers and concentrate more on the GenXers or have we forgotten about that generation. Certainly seems so.

*************

Gen X disbanded years ago.

My kids call me a Boomer (I showed proof that I am Gen X and they laughed and laughed), so I call them Millens.

#96 T-Man on 04.12.22 at 10:32 pm

#61, #64 – Shartzincrowdedelevatorsandthinkshescool : Garth is the controller of info here. I’m good with that. Freedumb doesn’t exist on the propaganda spewing, Pollitically correct C.B.C. by the way. Open your beady eyes.

#97 Stone on 04.12.22 at 10:36 pm

#36 Dave on 04.12.22 at 4:54 pm
Work from office reality: everyone is just working remotely from their office, the term “in-office collaboration” is a crock of you know what, and working parents (at least the ones who actually like being around their partner/kid(s) more) are questioning why they are losing 2-3 hrs a day away from their families to spend it in an environment that hasn’t really changed since the Mad Men era… when over the last two years, a much more efficient, inclusive model transformed how we can actually work.

Just go to work. Be a role model for those kiddies. – Garth

———

Or…you could just retire early and show the kiddies that life is more than just working. I for one enjoy unstructured play. I’ll concede most people can’t handle it (they need to be told what to do and require someone to praise them constantly) but for those who can, it can be a amazing. For everyone else, you have no idea what you’re missing out on.

#98 Bubble blows its top on 04.12.22 at 10:39 pm

Seismic is to put it mildly, things are about to get ugly.

#99 Satori on 04.12.22 at 10:39 pm

#86 David Snorfler on 04.12.22 at 9:10 pm

A women’s nesting instinct means RE-owning males are much more attractive. Women want security, and men want women.

It will never change.
—————————————————
News flash, it’s changed, and it’s the 21st Century. More and more women are opting out of having kids. Why do you think Canada accepts immigrants? beee-cause birth rate is decreasing big time.

Another newsflash: In 2019 61% of first-time and repeat home buyers in Canada were female. Despite grappling with substantially lower paychecks on average, women tend to have higher savings rates than men. Why do you think its call from the ‘bank of Mom’?

Real estate makes men more ‘attractive’!! Now I heard it all. HAHAHAHAHA! You are Hilarious! (and likely still single).

Dude, women don’t rely on men for ‘security’, shut off the Archie Bunker re-runs already! Up off the recliner… It’s doing you absolutely no good!

#100 Trojan House on 04.12.22 at 10:40 pm

I read somewhere today that if inflation was calculated they way it was back in the 1980s, it would actually be 19.5%.

#101 Victor V on 04.12.22 at 10:40 pm

“ Realtor called this evening.
Buyers put in an offer on offer day (today).
List price was 800k.
They offered list, as they were the ONLY offer.
Listing agent calls, says basically the sellers wanted *way* more.
Deal dead.
The top has been in for weeks.”

https://twitter.com/therobcampbell/status/1514052215140491264

#102 Ronaldo on 04.12.22 at 11:27 pm

#91 ElGatoNeroYVR on 04.12.22 at 9:59 pm
#83 Ronaldo on 04.12.22 at 8:39 pm

Yes ,we GenX are the forgotten generation and we learned to like it that way.We slowly and quitely acumulate wealth ,fly under the radar living the life and either enjoying early (semi-)retirement or getting ready to do so real soon while blaming the evil boomers and the lazy,entitled Millenials,Z,Y,P,Q for all that is wrong in the world and with the society nowadays.
Please don’t put the spotlight on us, forget that letter even exists in the alphabet.
————————————————————–
Sorry for revealing you but after 14 years on this blog and protecting you guys, (my sons are both GenXers too) I decided it was time. Anyway, your generation was known as the latch key kids because as with my sons, both their parents worked and you came home to an empty house. That was actually a good thing because you all became self reliant and probably very successful in life as with both my sons. Please tell me you did well for yourself because unlike some today, you had plenty of opportunity to do so.

#103 Ronaldo on 04.12.22 at 11:37 pm

#91 ElGatoNeroYVR on 04.12.22 at 9:59 pm
#83 Ronaldo on 04.12.22 at 8:39 pm

I believe you will find this description of your generation to be quite accurate.

https://imagerestorationcenter.com/what-is-gen-x/

#104 Jer on 04.13.22 at 12:08 am

#80- Not really. There have always been unambitious people. -Garth

There have always been unambitious people, that is correct. But up until now majority of those unambitious people have been eking out their existence in a cubicle or an office. Look at the dead weight the every gov in the country carries and the feds hired +20,000 more since the start of the virus. StatsCan says 35% of gov sponsored immigrants are still on the dole a decade after arriving. So it seems the very gov is condoning a lack of ambition. What’s wrong with folks working from home if they are productive and lead happier lives rather than the drudgery of the endless commute. Would anyone classify a commute as productive time? Would anyone argue that happy workers are productive workers? So a bank gives up a massive high rise for a smaller building to house fewer desk jockeys. Do they not save on the commercial real estate, heating and electricity, insurance and other overhead costs associated with a high rise? There are pros and cons to both scenarios. Working in an office doesn’t make you a hero. WFH doesn’t make you a lazy lay-about. Both ends of the spectrum are well represented in both scenarios. To think otherwise is foolish.

#105 NEVER GIVE UP on 04.13.22 at 12:16 am

#32 The West on 04.12.22 at 4:22 pm
#11 NEVER GIVE UP

Like most empires, the Anglo American Establishment now fades into the sunset. The population of Canada has no business in European affairs. None.

Feel free to send your money and sons off to the slaughter. I’m good.
===================================
Haha. I’m way ahead of you on that one. I would never allow any of my sons to go to any war.
Wars are the culmination of :
1. A failure by politicians to prepare for war to the point that the aggressor would not attack.
2. A failure of politicians in diplomatic solutions.
3. The most prevalent, a failure of nation states to keep sociopaths from power and allowing the concentration of power in the hands of a small group or even one man.

To have peace you must prepare for war.

To have security in your home prepare for burglars.

As an importer all my life by trade, I do not share your world view. We are definitely interdependent. All rich countries are the most free in trade. All poor countries have restrictive trade policies among intense corruption.

Europe is our family. We are duty bound to prepare to meet demagogues head on but the best formula is to have so much power that they will never attack.

#106 BigAl (Original) on 04.13.22 at 2:38 am

#101 Victor V on 04.12.22 at 10:40 pm
“ Realtor called this evening.
Buyers put in an offer on offer day (today).
List price was 800k.
They offered list, as they were the ONLY offer.
Listing agent calls, says basically the sellers wanted *way* more.
Deal dead.
The top has been in for weeks.”

https://twitter.com/therobcampbell/status/1514052215140491264

==================================

House sigma is showing the majority of homes listed in my neighborhood in Milton in the past few weeks have been terminated/delisted.

#107 Great Bear on 04.13.22 at 6:15 am

50 bps ? Tiff would be squeezing Trudeaus balls. Canada is spent. But Trudeau- Jagg isn’t through spending. Jag says Trudeaus only in office if he bows and scrapes at Jaggys door. Canada is paying 50% of every dollar in debt service. BOC is a political wing of the Liberal Party not a serious CB. Trudeau Jagmeet are vindictive . ransacking the treasury to ensure their replacements can’t right the ship.

Everyone knows that. Ask Poloz if his plan was to spend billions on free daycare. Where was that in his mandate. Canada is no a serious country under the Trudeau NDP. So don’t expect a serious government or a serious BOC response to the current 15% annual inflation.

#108 Sail Away on 04.13.22 at 6:54 am

#105 NEVER GIVE UP on 04.13.22 at 12:16 am

Haha. I’m way ahead of you on that one. I would never allow any of my sons to go to any war.

Wars are the culmination of :
1. A failure by politicians to prepare for war to the point that the aggressor would not attack.
2. A failure of politicians in diplomatic solutions.
3. The most prevalent, a failure of nation states to keep sociopaths from power and allowing the concentration of power in the hands of a small group or even one man.

———–

You should definitely pass along your high-minded sentiments to Ukraine, including the part about not allowing your sons to go to any war.

Zelenskyy will nod slowly and understandingly… before kicking you in the nads.

#109 chalkie on 04.13.22 at 7:51 am

You could not have said it better Garth, those New Real Estate Agents, will soon be driving cabs again, “sad” but reality.
Not enough buyers, to many homes on the market, price wars home inspector sky rocketing again, its all on the horizon.
Its like flipping pancakes, one side always gets more attention than the other, sometimes a little burnt.

#110 Cropgrower on 04.13.22 at 8:11 am

What’s the problem? Didn’t the newbies have to pass the 5% test to qualify for the new mortgage? There should be no problems out there making their payments……right? And they have made 20+% on their investment portfolio over the last couple of years……right? Seems to be a lot of worry about nothing here…..right?

#111 crowdedelevatorfartz on 04.13.22 at 8:18 am

@#105 Never Give Up
“Haha. I’m way ahead of you on that one. I would never allow any of my sons to go to any war.”

+++
While I agree that all wars are the ultimate vanity project for incompetent leadership…

Perhaps you should google compulsory conscription.
It’s not up to you.
The govt has the final say.
I’m sure a large percentage of the fighting age men in Ukraine don’t want to die in a useless war.
They dodnt have a choice.
Any male over the age of 18 could not leave the country.
Now that Russia has regrouped and put a ruthless General in charge of the “blitzkrieg”…..
I expect a truly unbelievable meatgrinder of men, machines and technology to die a on a scale not seen since Korea.
All because Putin is a greedy dictator with billions of stolen money and he’s stuck, in charge, until he dies…. and his people still dont have the nerve to do something about him.

#112 crowdedelevatorfartz on 04.13.22 at 8:24 am

@#96 TV-man
“Freedumb doesn’t exist on the propaganda spewing, Pollitically correct C.B.C. by the way. Open your beady eyes.”

+++
You actually watch the CBC?
Explains a lot.

#113 crowdedelevatorfartz on 04.13.22 at 9:40 am

@#100 Trojan Man
“I read somewhere today that if inflation was calculated they way it was back in the 1980s, it would actually be 19.5%.”

+++
Nice try.
19.5 % was a MORTGAGE rate in the 1980’s…..

#114 crowdedelevatorfartz on 04.13.22 at 9:47 am

Well the enviro-nazis in the Leadership have swiveled their sights to trucks and SUV’s.

https://torontosun.com/opinion/columnists/sims-trudeau-is-planning-a-tax-on-trucks

That should make the hypocrites like ponzie happy until they needs a plumber in an emergency and the plumber is stuck on skytrain with everyone else.

#115 Dharma Bum on 04.13.22 at 9:55 am

#37 Ponzo

And move to a smaller place with a community spirit.
—————————————————————————————————–

You are so right.

The worst thing about where I live now, is the total erosion of what Ponzi aptly refers to as community spirit.

The house, purchased 35 years ago, suited my family at the time. Large enough for 5 people, close to the kids’ schools, lots of nearby services and amenities (grocery stores, shopping, entertainment, restaurants, medical/dental. etc.), and pretty good highway access for my daily commute to the former wage slave grind house.

The neigbourhood was rife with kids to play with each other and the adults regularly socialized. There were always people outside to chat with, have a beer with, and generally intermingle. There was a spirit of community.

Today, that has all but disappeared. Virtually every single family that started in the neighbourhood is long gone. I have watched many houses change hands several times.
The younger families that have moved in most recently are like shut-ins. There are hardly any young kids in the area, and the few that there are, rarely, if ever, are playing outside. No bike riders, no street hockey players, no catch-playing.

Crickets.

And everybody looks miserable.

I guess the disappearance of the community spirit has something to do with the erosion of affordability. If I had to buy the house I live in today, there is NO WAY I could do it. Those that are moving into the neighbourhood are either wealthy younger folks who probably received inter-family cash transfers and have their kids segregated in private extra curricular activities (no street playing for those offspring), or people with university aged kids who either live away from home or don’t “play” in the neighbourhood. Either way, it’s a boring dead zone.

The problem is how to find a new neighbourhood that has the “community spirit”. I admit that complacency has set in, and it’s hard to leave the comfort, built in efficiency, familiarity, and multiple upgrades of the existing homestead, to face future uncertainty. Especially for the wife, eh?

I would sure like to release some of that unearned windfall equity. I’d miss the old homestead, though.

For about 5 minutes.

#116 Shawn on 04.13.22 at 9:56 am

Inflation like it’s 1980

#100 Trojan House on 04.12.22 at 10:40 pm

I read somewhere today that if inflation was calculated they way it was back in the 1980s, it would actually be 19.5%.

**************************
If you read it and if you would like it to be true then in today’s world you are certainly entitled to believe it.

I wonder how they calculated the inflation on things like internet connections, cell phones, laptops, streaming services, fitbits, apple watches, GPS systems, satellite radio subscriptions and the like in 1980? And what weight did they place on those things in 1980?

#117 Quintilian on 04.13.22 at 10:00 am

#93 DON on 04.12.22 at 10:10 pm
“RE and construction can sustain GDP growth for years to come and keep the gravy train flowing.”

No, it cannot Don.

In fact, RE at such elevated costs loaded on, disproportionately, to people who would otherwise have a high propensity to spend at family formation time of their lives, is a drag on the economy.

Up to now it has been papered over with negative interest rates and debt. But it’s like rust, you can paint over it, and it will appear ok for a while.
Tick Tock, Tick Tock.

#118 Sail Away on 04.13.22 at 10:01 am

US I Bonds going to 10% for you duallies out there. The safest investment ever, and each citizen can buy up to $15k/yr.

Yes please, all the SAs will take a top-up:

https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-safe-investment-that-will-soon-yield-almost-10-11649769505?mod=djem10point

#119 Sonny Kang on 04.13.22 at 10:09 am

Bank of Canada increases policy interest rate by 50 basis points, begins quantitative tightening

https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2022/04/fad-press-release-2022-04-13/

#120 Dharma Bum on 04.13.22 at 10:13 am

#46 Yorkville Renter

But when your kid sees you sitting and looking at a screen all day or taking calls (or worse, silently being one of 40 people on a zoom) then there’s no mystery and you might seem kinda lame.
——————————————————————————————————-

Years ago, I took my youngest kid to work with me because he had a day off school for “go to your parent’s workplace day” (or some such nonsensical new-age educational gimmick that was an excuse for another teacher holiday).

When we came home, my wife asked him if he had fun and did he learn anything.

He said, “yah – I learned that I definitely do NOT wanna do whatever it is dad does. SO boring. Staring at a black screen with green letters, and arguing with weird people at his office all day. But lunch was fun. Dad’s boss smoked a whole pack of cigarettes.”

That is the most accurate job description I have ever heard.

#121 DON on 04.13.22 at 10:59 am

#117 Quintilian on 04.13.22 at 10:00 am
#93 DON on 04.12.22 at 10:10 pm
“RE and construction can sustain GDP growth for years to come and keep the gravy train flowing.”

No, it cannot Don.

In fact, RE at such elevated costs loaded on, disproportionately, to people who would otherwise have a high propensity to spend at family formation time of their lives, is a drag on the economy.

Up to now it has been papered over with negative interest rates and debt. But it’s like rust, you can paint over it, and it will appear ok for a while.
Tick Tock, Tick Tock.

***************

I think you got mixed up…I didn’t say that. The other guy did.

#122 Satori on 04.13.22 at 11:42 am

#115 Dharma Bum on 04.13.22 at 9:55
I think this is happening everywhere.

I recently lived in a high rise, downtown Vancouver, kids use to play outside together in the fenced off area. Toys everywhere. Always laughter. People knew their names.

Now, crickets. Still kids in the building, more than before… but never outside. The blinds are down in these suites 24/7, the odd time you see a kid in the parking lot with their mom or dad and they all have dark circles under their eyes, translucent pale skin and look, for lack of a better word, look sickly.

Odd because when you pack 3-4 people in a one bedroom, you’d think they’d want to go outside more.

Perhaps its a generation thing, put them in front of the ‘babysitting’ iPhone, or iPad watching Netflix for hours. Fear everyone you don’t know and bunker down. This was happening even before covid. Mostly Millennium’s kids.

I am not sure if this happens in rich countries only, or just cause no one likes outdoors anymore, but that sense of friends and community… gone.

#123 NEVER GIVE UP on 04.13.22 at 12:13 pm

#108 Sail Away on 04.13.22 at 6:54 am
#105 NEVER GIVE UP on 04.13.22 at 12:16 am

Haha. I’m way ahead of you on that one. I would never allow any of my sons to go to any war.

You should definitely pass along your high-minded sentiments to Ukraine, including the part about not allowing your sons to go to any war.

Zelenskyy will nod slowly and understandingly… before kicking you in the nads.
===================================

HAHA. Yeah I already thought this through a long time ago. Long before my kids were of conscription age.

Essentially what they are fighting for in any war is Land and Material possessions, and a Way of life.

If you can separate yourself from the need for these things you can be free to move to another peaceful spot on earth. That would be me. I had this discussion with a German born friend last week. We agree that one should have left Ukraine or any similar battle prone area as soon as it becomes unstable. Not wait for tanks to rumble through the streets.
And no I am not a pacifist I would pick up a gun if I was caught in a war zone. I just think for the good of my family that the best move would be to leave any conflict zone to those who value their homes and social structure more than I do. I have little patriotism. A tinge for Canada maybe. For the western world as a whole, a little more. If all hell breaks loose you can drop me a line in Argentina.
As far as my home and cars and possessions etc. I could just walk away and live just as well in a Nipa Hut in the Philippines.
I view the actual combatants in wars as suckers who were used by demagogues who sit in comfortable buildings directing the war. Of course I appreciate their sacrifice but in the end it was just to protect wealth and power.
Think of it this way.
What if the Ukrainians let the Russians walk in and change the Government. When the tanks roll in they wave at the soldiers and the soldiers say to themselves, there is no one to fight?!
The Ukrainians would lose some of their freedom and would live under Oligarchy rule. They would not have lost their homes and factories and 30K lives so far.
This may have been a better outcome because they were not a strong enough nation to be so fortified that the Russians would not have attacked. The Ukrainians were working hard on that problem but didn’t have enough time.
Anyway my values are much different than many or most. I just would not stick around a war zone. Would any of you willingly send your kids off to war?

I am supposed to die naturally… in my sleep and not like the screaming passengers in my car…

#124 Søren Angst on 04.13.22 at 12:32 pm

⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐

🚀