Carrots, sticks

More evidence of change beneath our feet.

The Canada five-year bond yield was 0.32% during the pandemic. Now it’s 2.6%. US Treasuries popped this week to 52-week highs. In the States Mr. Market is giving 77% odds  the CB there will hike rates a half point (twice the normal increase) next month and do it again in June. Maybe even more then. And next week the Bank of Canada is also in track for a big move.

Here are the results:

  • House sales in the GTA (as reported yesterday) are down by 30%.
  • Mortgage applications in the States crashed by 40% last week as mortgages there topped 5%.
  • The average selling price of detached houses in Toronto has declined every week since the early days of March.
  • The erosion is more than 7% in just four weeks in 416.
  • A new Scotiabank survey finds 43% of people have put house-buying plans on hold, up a quarter from last year and higher by half in two years.
  • Among those 18 to 34, 56% say economic conditions are too dicey to buy real estate and almost two-thirds say they’ll keep waiting until prices fall.
  • Says the bank: “Concerns over costs of living, rising interest rates, market instability, and economic uncertainty has most millennials feeling discouraged about their homeownership aspiration.”
  • Every one of the Big 6 now say interest rates will rise by 50 basis points next Wednesday, the largest jump in 22 years. Current market odds of this occurring are 80%. Done. Deal.

As you know, this is happening on the eve of a federal budget expected to intervene – big time – in the national housing market. It comes as provinces also ramp up a war on real estate, as detailed here yesterday. It’s hard to keep track of the new penalties, restrictions, taxes and constraints being shoveled out of legislatures as hapless officials try to stuff the genie of house lust back into the bottle.

Tomorrow – more sticks, more carrots. A bad news day for investors, likely. A day when the kiddos will be encouraged to borrow more. But it seems anyone buying in the next few months may be reaching out to catch a falling and very sharp knife.

Let’s review. First, this is what house prices have done across the country. It’s unprecedented.

Can you see on this chart when Covid hit and our bankers panicked? It marked the precise moment we lost our collective mind, moved to Bunnypatch and worshipped drywall.

Next, consider the path of interest rates as measured by the yield on a five-year Canada bond. This is the security that largely determines the cost of a fixed-rate mortgage. Those home loans have basically doubled in cost during the course of 2022. By the way, a half-point BoC hike will push the chartered bank prime up, taking a zillion HELOCs along for the ride.

Says veteran mortgage broker guy Ron Butler: “A jump in Bank Prime from from 2.70% to 3.20% will have a chilling effect on the Canadian RE market. HELOC Interest goes to 3.70% and the jump in payments on balances will cause everyone who planned to use their HELOCS as a source of Investment Property down payment to think twice.”

But it gets worse if Ottawa is about to ban the used of home equity as a source of capital to buy rental properties. And it seems that’s in the cards.

Why is this happening?

Simple. Inflation is at a multi-decade high. The war is making it worse. A very tight labour market is causing wage pressures. The supply chain is wonky, with shortages of key stuff everywhere along it. Central banks kept rates too low for too long, in a classic policy mistake. That caused massive borrowing, epic debt and crap houses to cost $2 million. Now the Trudeau-Singh government (like the Biden administration in the US) is heaping on social and environmental spending, which will create fiscal stimulus. More inflation.

CBs use interest rates as a blunt instrument of macroeconomics, trying to cool off demand for credit and thereby slow things down. Nothing – repeat, nada – is as consequential to the market price of real estate as the cost of money. The inverse relationship between home values and mortgage rates has never faltered in the long-term. Nor will it now. Given our extreme household debt and nutso property prices, the trip up in monetary policy will have an outsized impact.

Stocks, too, of course. Especially the tech guys. But unlike houses, equity values are based on corporate profitability in a hugely liquid market. Real estate is based far more on emotion, and in a marketplace which can freeze up and turn illiquid in a matter of weeks. Sometimes, in days.

BTW, it’s not just Canada.

Every CB in every developed country responded to Covid in the same way, trying to paper over the impact of a pandemic. Mostly, it worked. Then it didn’t. Now inflation’s romping all over. Putin is making it more extreme. The bond market is grouchy. The odds of a recession, it’s telling us, are rising – for all of the above reasons.

Let’s see if the feds make it better or worse tomorrow at 4 pm. I’m taking bets.

About the picture: “Let me just start my MSU with THANK YOU!  I have been reading your blog since 2016 when I took over our investment portfolio,” writes Ellen. “It’s always my first read at lunchtime.  I keep to your balanced percentages, use ETFs and stay calm during all the upheaval.  Your financial expertise, understanding and experience of our gov’t keeps me grounded amid all the shenanigans. This is our grand-dog, Gavel, a malti-poo who now lives in NYC.  My husband and I miss him and all his antics.  I liken the photo to our present housing market.”

125 comments ↓

#1 Dogman01 on 04.06.22 at 4:18 pm

The bond market is going to break the Canadian housing market:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UsxApXuvnw4

“The bond market, inflation and high energy prices are doing the Bank of Canada’s job.“

Good opinion\forecast on Canadian Real Estate.

#2 Captain Uppa on 04.06.22 at 4:21 pm

They will make it worse. They always do.

But, I think the rate rises will do the trick. Then of course the government will take a victory lap claiming their supply “fixes” brought prices down.

#3 mitzerboyakaQueencitykidd on 04.06.22 at 4:21 pm

Like the old wise blind dude on Kung Fu said to
his Apprentice …

patience young grasshopper the pendulum always swings back and then forth

#4 Arcticfox on 04.06.22 at 4:25 pm

Volker sought a soft landing during last period of significant inflation(real rates weren’t as negative as now if cpi was similarly calculated). Market then was 40 percent of gdp and dept was 30 percent of gdp. Markets are now 190 percent of gdp and dept 124 percent of gdp. Get the popcorn out!

#5 Leftover on 04.06.22 at 4:26 pm

The bond market is grouchy all right, and about to get downright ornery. Fed minutes revealed that they’re about to dump $95 billion a week from their balance sheet, mostly short treasuries and agency mortgage securities. Scrotal trauma for debtors.

#6 Rook on 04.06.22 at 4:26 pm

Looks like the FHSA is a ‘go’, according to CTV.

https://www.ctvnews.ca/politics/federal-budget-to-include-ban-on-foreign-home-buyers-billions-for-housing-1.5850968

Is my math right on this? Because it seems too good to be true. I’ll admit, my financial math skills are a bit shaky.

I take an initial investment of $40k, stick it in the FHSA.

It gives me the RRSP tax return (30%) of $12,000, which I put into my TFSA.

If both grow at 5% over the next 3 years, the value of the 40k is $46,300 and the value of the 12k is now 13,891.

If I take the 46,300 from the FHSA and roll it into my RRSP, I then get ANOTHER tax return of 13,890.

So, my initial investment of $40k is now worth 40k (initial) + 13,890 (rrsp return at Y3) + 13,891(tfsa value at Y3) + 6,300 (gains on initial investment) = $74,081 in 3 years.

Is that a compound annual return of ~22% over 3 years, just by gaming the registered accounts system, and getting modest growth, alone?

#7 Stephladimir Harputin on 04.06.22 at 4:27 pm

Why don’t you even mention the very effective response of me and Jim when my government dealt with the last crisis and real estate problems?

You ungrateful bugger.

That’s my MFU for today, Turner.

#8 Philco on 04.06.22 at 4:29 pm

More programs spending, controls so why would they make it better. In their eyes there is No problema. They just gave themselves raises.

#9 None on 04.06.22 at 4:32 pm

My main concerns is that the new budget will make things worse.

Basically I think they’re going to try to manufacture a ‘slow melt’ down to ‘reasonable levels’ over the next decade. What does that actually mean though?

It means a very slow and painful bailout financed by first time home buyers so the old and wrinkles can have a bloated retirement.

Screw that. Only fair way for this to unravel is to let it burn.

#10 Søren Angst on 04.06.22 at 4:32 pm

…meanwhile, Mr. Market having a bird today, again.

Even my ETF/ETNs oil down. How I know it’s a bad day.

————————-

Agree Garth.

Recession, I ‘dunno. For now seems OK.

Depends if the CBs can do the delicate dance between cooling inflation & recession.

From my view, I doubt they will be able to. They left it, controlling inflation, way too late.

Either we end up with super high inflation w/low rate increases or recession w/high rate increases, i.e., they will not be able to do that delicate dance. One or the other will run away from the CBs.

Rough road coming.

#11 Søren Angst on 04.06.22 at 4:37 pm

PS:

It’s in the hands of the CBs now.

Whatever Trudeau et. al. do tomorrow will be nothing more than

Polishing the portholes on a sinking ship.

—————-

That sinking ship will be high rates or very high inflation.

We are at the mercy of the CBs.

#12 TurnerNation on 04.06.22 at 4:40 pm

When the UBI arrives will one be still allowed the holding of any investable or income producing assets? Or better you transfer, to a spouse, holding co or?
What’s not to like. Free income, free health care, free pharma, free dental care.

Is the UBI also for the new underclasses?

https://nationalpost.com/opinion/jamie-sarkonak-why-canadian-universities-are-refusing-to-hire-able-bodied-white-males

As Paul McCartney/Wings sang:

“If I ever get out of here
Thought of giving it all away
To a registered charity
All I need is a pint a day
If I ever get outta here


— Almost back to normal.
#CancelCulture. Now you know why we’ve been trained on this, since 2019.
All the old culture must be cancelled Comrade!

.Montreal’s Canada Day parade cancelled for third year in a row (montreal.ctvnews.ca)

#13 dave on 04.06.22 at 4:41 pm

Its taken 2 decades for CBs to figure out the relationship between real estate prices and interest rates?!!!!

They held off as long as a possible….why didnt BoC have an increase in January? Vancouver prices went up $150K in ONE MONTH!

The BoC needs to be audited and then given brand new mandates….and fire the current board!!

Life absolutely sucks for 90% of Canadians because of housing prices

#14 PeterfromCalgary on 04.06.22 at 4:43 pm

If I were a betting man I would say the budget tomorrow will make inflation worse. Justin and Jagmeet’s marriage of convenience will be a very expensive marriage. The Year of the Tiger is going to be a year of tears for Canadian taxpayers. The CRA is getting very hungry!

#15 Steven on 04.06.22 at 4:44 pm

2 more hikes til something breaks and the 1% can buy up the carnage.

#16 Jason Sensation on 04.06.22 at 4:47 pm

The Fed released meeting minutes today.

Minutes of the March 15-16 meeting showed policymakers rallying around plans to cut the central bank’s massive balance sheet as soon as next month.

The minutes, though, pointed to potential rate hikes of 50 basis points at upcoming meetings, a level consistent with market pricing for the May vote. In fact, there was considerable sentiment to go higher last month.

To quote:

“Many participants noted that one or more 50 basis point increases in the target range could be appropriate at future meetings, particularly if inflation pressures remained elevated or intensified.”

Rate hikes are comin’

#17 SunShowers on 04.06.22 at 4:49 pm

“Punishing people with assets you covet will not make them cheaper. – Garth

If they’re punished to the point of needing to sell those assets, it will most definitely make them cheaper.
I believe that’s the entire point.

No such evidence exists. – Garth”

No evidence exists that a massive increase in supply of erstwhile speculative investment properties (caused by a sell-off) will make those properties cheaper? I dunno if I believe that.

People who actually intend to live in these homes won’t be harmed by the taxes and penalties, so they will happily buy these homes for a discount when the specuvestors rush for the exit.

#18 Sovavia on 04.06.22 at 4:51 pm

1) Where you stand depends upon where you sit.

2) Creditors and borrowers do not agree about the state of the world.

3) Burning the bondholders risks burning the house down.

#19 valleyranter on 04.06.22 at 4:52 pm

Radio ads on the wet coast are popping up featuring hucksters shilling tax lien real estate investments that can be done from the comfort of one’s own home. Just gotta sign up for the online seminar. Comes with free gifts too. Seems to pair nicely with the constant home equity ads, a bit dry on the tongue though with hints of pear and a tart aftertaste.

#20 Luddite on 04.06.22 at 4:54 pm

Wow, seeing one comment in the steerage section is almost like someone putting a microphone in front of you and you get stuck wanting to say something profound… i guess all i got is; thank you for everything you do for your daily readers!

#21 I’m stupid on 04.06.22 at 4:59 pm

That’s a suckers bet… nothing the feds do make things better but people screw themselves more than any government policy ever can.

#22 yorkville renter on 04.06.22 at 5:05 pm

my bet is on “worse”…

speaking of increasing rates — how does this impact the fixed-income portion of the portfolio?

I was reading that Bonds are a waste of time at this moment as they can’t possibly pay enough to catch up to inflation, but I know Bonds are not the entire pie when it comes to Fixed income.

#23 an investor on 04.06.22 at 5:10 pm

Canada’s marxist coalition government will take everything we have. No one will be spared. This will be worse than we feared.

The exodus out of Canada will increase exponentially.

#24 Ballingsford on 04.06.22 at 5:11 pm

My bet is that it’ll be worse. Much more deeper in debt with the Lib-NDP coalition. Early in the mandate they can do unpopular things too because by the time year 3-4 rolls around, people have forgotten and then they give out goodies before election time.

#25 Dilberto on 04.06.22 at 5:13 pm

Anything the FEDs will do will make it worse. We are beyond fiddling with the budget.
But look every country is competing to be in the craphouse so comparatively we are a but worse than average but our growth prospects are at the bottom on the pile.
Time to start a Realist Party. Parties are voted out here not in so I expect we are at a stalemate.
Victory to Kanada.

#26 1-800-DOCTORB on 04.06.22 at 5:13 pm

What’s going on with preferreds? Shouldn’t these upcoming rate hikes be plumping them up?

#27 pPrasseur on 04.06.22 at 5:30 pm

Household debt to income is over 180% in Canada and 100% in the US, huge difference. In fact households financial situation is pretty good in the US these days. This disconnect has been building for years and is now peaking.

This gives the FED some bandwidth to raise rates and to abandon monetary stimulus, US households can get through it. And of course Canada must follow, otherwise the CAD will plunge and inflation will skyrocket. Yet Canadians are far more vulnerable to rate hikes than their US counterparts.

Huge problem here and it’s not going away anytime soon.

Another way to see this: Americans went through a difficult correction in 2008 while Canada kept bubbling, now is possibly Canada’s turn. If not now, later, but there is not avoiding this IMO.

This could get very ugly.

#28 ElGatoNeroYVR on 04.06.22 at 5:32 pm

Time for the annual RE sky is falling.Thank you for an entertaining read .All is true ofcourse from a logical perspective, it stayed true for 20 some years.
Reality proved different , driven by sentiment and non-measurable market forces, ya know those that people keep dismissing as “there is no acual evidence , it is but a few condos, too small a percentage to matter ” a.s.o . ,dismising those of us who actually see it happening on the ground and the real life impact.
The RE investor in me wants you to be wrong, the human being with kids wants you to be right , either way one will deliver reasonable good news ,likely somewhere in the middle.
My bet is same as before ,a few specuvestors will get burned and have to sell ,all else will stay put and listings will go down or stay flat at asking price, maybe 10% lower if lucky; normal people will lock in and not worry untill renewal at which point the market wold have benn stabilized or on the upswing again ,kinda like it happend when COVID hit.
Some will learn the hard way why nobody wanted to live before COVID in bunny patch ,I feel for them ;at the same time there is a reason it is called “School of hard knocks” .

#29 crowdedelevatorfartz on 04.06.22 at 5:42 pm

So we have artificial supply shortages ( China continues covid lockdowns ) in our “globalized ” world ( sorta like the Arab oil embargo of the early 1970’s) causing consumer goods to rise in price as well as pent up consumer demand from Covid lockdowns ending in the West ( sorta like the consumers after Second World War rationing ) both causing inflation.

Toss in an idiot like Putin causing even more price increases/ shortages due to war and boycotts.

A trifecta of financial theories smashing into each other to see who will prevail.

Economists and banksters having conniptions

Food, fuel, fertilizer all going uppa uppa uppa….

Inflation, interest rate hikes, ….recession…..here…. we …..come

#30 Inequity on 04.06.22 at 5:58 pm

#26 1-800-DOCTORB

I believe the increase in rates will drive the cost of preferers down aka plump their return.

#31 Apocalypse NOW on 04.06.22 at 6:01 pm

We are passing the turning point and the fatal side effects of war will take out hundreds of millions, not just from guns and nukes.

The food production crisis unfolding will hugely impact countries from the middle east to Brazil. Beans to fertilizers to meat, it’s all connected.

The NY Times has nailed it – a global food crisis coming at full speed. For the lucky ones who survive the war ahead.

“How many millions are going starve to death because of the lack of these fertilizers?”

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/03/20/world/americas/ukraine-war-global-food-crisis.html

“Ukraine has only compounded a catastrophe on top of a catastrophe,” said David M. Beasley, the executive director of the World Food Program, the United Nations agency that feeds 125 million people a day. “There is no precedent even close to this since World War II.”

“Ukrainian farms are about to miss critical planting and harvesting seasons. European fertilizer plants are significantly cutting production because of high energy prices. Farmers from Brazil to Texas are cutting back on fertilizer, threatening the size of the next harvests.”

Egypt, with 103 million, is utterly dependent on Ukraine, just one example. Any instability there?

Political uprisings in the streets will usually begin from food shortages and food price increases.

Welcome to 2022.

Been to a Metro store this week? The shelves are half empty, with signs everywhere about ‘supply issues’ (a processing plant strike in Ontario) Multiply that by 1000 in the months ahead.

PREPARE

#32 LTO on 04.06.22 at 6:03 pm

I predicted .25 last time and it will be the same this time….

#33 T-Man on 04.06.22 at 6:14 pm

Besides all this, there are long term lithium chemical shortages that could last into the 2030’s. How will the melon heads power their ‘lectric vehicles? Pretty short sighted thinking on the part of our precious gubmint. Alberta suspended their provincial fuel tax, SORRY B.C. Ha ha. Alberta oil patch can’t find enough workers? Are soy boys afraid of getting dirt under their manicured nails? Yuk yuk.

#34 45north on 04.06.22 at 6:15 pm

Next, consider the path of interest rates as measured by the yield on a five-year Canada bond. This is the security that largely determines the cost of a fixed-rate mortgage. Those home loans have basically doubled in cost during the course of 2022. By the way, a half-point BoC hike will push the chartered bank prime up, taking a zillion HELOCs along for the ride.

story: young girl at Ottawa U needs a place to stay so the family from Brampton buys her a condo.

My guess is that it’s a highly speculative move. I mean a family with real wealth, would just pay the residence fee and a dozen airplane tickets.

#35 Shawn on 04.06.22 at 6:16 pm

Fed Bond or Treasury Selling?

#5 Leftover on 04.06.22 at 4:26 pm
The bond market is grouchy all right, and about to get downright ornery. Fed minutes revealed that they’re about to dump $95 billion a week from their balance sheet, mostly short treasuries and agency mortgage securities. Scrotal trauma for debtors.

*********************************
Actually it’s $95 billion a month. And is that a lot? Need context. Will take a whole year to get to a trillion.

#36 Linda on 04.06.22 at 6:16 pm

‘Gavel’ looks to be thinking about having some dessert:)

So if the feds promise the pony via that $40K for everyone under 40 deal, plus lord only knows what other assistance to ‘help’ with purchasing that much desired (up to now, anyway) RE, would that not effectively cancel out even a .50 BP increase by the BoC? Maybe even set the scenario for a further .50 bump upwards come June? Stay tuned…..

#37 Shawn on 04.06.22 at 6:19 pm

Rate Reset Preffered Shares?

#26 1-800-DOCTORB on 04.06.22 at 5:13 pm

What’s going on with preferreds? Shouldn’t these upcoming rate hikes be plumping them up?

**************************
No, the reset was only ever meant to allow these prefs to HOLD their value as rates rise and the market required yield on them rises. (And regular perpetual prefs fall)

They only time they go up is after they take a real dump.

But simply holding value and spitting off a yield is not such a bad thing. An the yield will eventually go up, if not the price.

See my similar comment on yesterday’s round.

#38 Reality Check on 04.06.22 at 6:22 pm

Zillions for house hungry millennials but pretty much zippo for renters?

Yet I thought renters would be more of the “woke/eco” impoverished typed that would vote Lib/NDP.

#39 T-Man on 04.06.22 at 6:23 pm

I’m sure the coalition gubmint will do fine, like dancing with the devil in the Trudeau/Broadbent Era, NOT!!! Canadians never learn from their mistakes. May we have some more punishment please sir.

#40 under the radar on 04.06.22 at 6:25 pm

3.70 a chilling effect ? still historically very cheap money. I guess the hopelessly pooched will feel a shiver.
I have received 6 deals this week, each deal multiple offers . 416 still golden.

#41 Quintilian on 04.06.22 at 6:26 pm

Memo to the logic impaired curmudgeons:

“BTW, it’s not just Canada.
Every CB in every developed country responded to Covid in the same way, trying to paper over the impact of a pandemic. Mostly, it worked. Then it didn’t.”

#42 T-Man on 04.06.22 at 6:28 pm

Mabey Garth would consider starting his own political party to save us from the halfwits currently known as politicians who rule over us. With a boot on our faces. Call it the Mostly Sane Coalition.

#43 Sam on 04.06.22 at 6:29 pm

Yay! That $1.599.999 townhouse in Alliston now costs $1.599.998!

#44 Al on 04.06.22 at 6:31 pm

My bet is that Liberals will increase spending by billions of dollars tomorrow. BoC in April will raise the rate by only .25. Inflation will be closer to 10%-12% which will cause the perfect storm in the markets. A full recession will bring much more suffering to investors and homebuyers.

#45 Bob Hamilton on 04.06.22 at 6:32 pm

Trudeau meets hecklers

https://twitter.com/1maidencanada1/status/1511336395549417477?s=20&t=3DI2Wuh0Rhy3ae6d4jwv2

#46 Blobby on 04.06.22 at 6:33 pm

#26 1-800-DOCTORB
“What’s going on with preferreds? ”

Lets see tomorrow, the Libs have promised to “tax the banks more”

#47 Victor V on 04.06.22 at 6:44 pm

FOMC: “A number of participants noted that the Committee’s previous communications had already contributed to a tightening of financial conditions, as evident in the notable increase in longer-term interest rates over recent months.”

===
===

Perhaps the Fed won’t have to raise with the same vigour as previously forecast.

#48 Philco on 04.06.22 at 6:50 pm

#45 Bob Hamilton on 04.06.22 at 6:32 pm
Trudeau meets hecklers
===================
Wish I was there!!! Dam… Arrogant clown.

#49 Pricedoutmillenial on 04.06.22 at 6:54 pm

Is banning HELOC alone going to help without proper enforcement from everyone involved?

Already started hearing that there may be “workarounds” like transferring HELOC loan cash into checking account for few months before using it for guess what.. downpayment on investment properties.

Well.. I wouldn’t be surprised. The quality of credit is not sub prime in Canada. It’s different here. But looks like housing ponzi system stopped playing fair long back and everyone seems to be happy to close their eyes on “Brampton mortgages”. Sorry, that’s how it’s called apparently.

#50 THE DANDADA on 04.06.22 at 7:13 pm

The FED and the BOC are all talk.

Another rate hike or 2 and the economy turns into a scene from out of the Oscar’s.

There’s no room left to raise rates without destroying the markets, the rich, and ultimately the working class.

#51 ogdoad on 04.06.22 at 7:14 pm

Its movin’…its all over the place. Plug me in, man, and watch. One smile and good for the day….two and I’m on top…oh those eyes…not sure of the color yet. Haven’t been close enough…that’s gonna change real soon…pheww. Hunting season.

Oh this life…i’m in peeps…all the way. Try and stop me…

Og

#52 carmar on 04.06.22 at 7:23 pm

#3 mitzerboyakaQueencitykidd on 04.06.22 at 4:21 pm

Like the old wise blind dude on Kung Fu said to
his Apprentice …

patience young grasshopper the pendulum always swings back and then forth

————-

That would be Master Po.

Boy are we dated. That was 50 years ago. Trying calling a Millennial let alone GenZ, “Grasshopper!” and you will get no understanding of what that means.

#53 Doug t on 04.06.22 at 7:26 pm

The economy is cruisin for a bruisin – and when the beating begins our Masters of the Universe will implant their evil plan ” New World Order” aka “suck it up butter cup” – you will own nothing and be happy – strap on your crash helmet and put your head between your knees

#54 TurnerNation on 04.06.22 at 7:34 pm

Two options for the Economic and Social lockdowns.
1. Ordered to, part of the #reset agenda.
2. To preserve the Hospital Capacity.

https://twitter.com/hollyanndoan/status/1511314336714739715
“DOCUMENTS: Six out of ten provinces either cut ICU beds or failed to increase number during pandemic despite billions more in federal transfers, according to
@GovCanHealth PEI, NB, NFLD, NS, QC, BC”



Err any chance of new Economic and Social lockdowns rolling in this Winter? It’s over with right?

“Federal quarantine inspectors could gain police powers to ticket rulebreakers, the Public Health Agency said of a proposal under “initial discussion” on Tuesday. Managers complained they had to rely on local police to issue tickets for those breaching the Quarantine Act.” (westernstandardonline.com)


— Early on it was pointed out that the EU’s Green Pass is coded for 8 slots in the programming. Oh how Dolce howled over this misinformation.

.How many booster shots will you need? FDA panel to discuss Covid plans for fall (nbcnews.com)

.Masking, possible 4th dose needed to tackle Canada’s latest wave, experts say (ctvnews.ca)

#55 I don’t know on 04.06.22 at 7:35 pm

My experience is those who cry the loudest about the cost of housing change their tune like a light switch the second they enter the market.

Government policy on affordable housing is absolutely important to addressing the affordability issue. But let’s be honest, most people “complaining” about affordability want a detached in an urban area at a discount.

That type of dwelling is a luxury.

Yes. Some highly speculative housing types like condos, and general real estate in far flung areas will stagnate.

Yes it will be a buying opportunity, for those bold enough.

The greedy will miss the boat again.

The market will take a breather, like it did in 2017. Those who bought in 2017 (like our host suggested -and was mocked by commenters expecting 50% discounts) were rewarded. Those who buy in the upcoming breather will be rewarded too.

So get ready. It will be over soon.

IDK

#56 Scooby Snacks on 04.06.22 at 7:38 pm

Sure hope the Libs follow through on their promise to ban foreign money from purchasing residential real estate, even if it is just a temporary ban.
Looks like real estate has indeed peaked, down she goes!

#57 Philco on 04.06.22 at 7:41 pm

I said oil peaked out @ $130 here a number of blogs ago.
Cant remember who said nope going to $200. I said nope and now its $96 (WTIC) Trending down breaking 50ma today. All good there and best to go against the pack. The Rushkie Rubles already bounced to pre attack levels. Who knew!?

Preferred’s got whacked today….. a shot across the bow? Higher int rates I don’t think push them up more down and then maybe a recession is in the offing… They had a big run and peeps ran for yield.
Higher levels of cash for me. Safety first across the board!

#58 Flop… on 04.06.22 at 7:48 pm

O.k since you’re taking bets, I’ve got one for you.

I’ve been trying to fundraise for a new car and my brightest new idea involves Ryan Lewenza.

He puts his Porsche up as collateral, we place a bet that Cameron Smith wins this weekend at The Masters golf tournament at odds of 16/1.

If we win, I get a new car and Rhino gets whatever is leftover after I buy my first car from this century.

If we lose, Ryan can simply drive the other Porsche…

M47BC

#59 mark on 04.06.22 at 8:11 pm

this was all so predictable. tax policy has even structured to incentivize real estate speculation and punish home ownership in canada for decades. why on earth would you buy a property to live in when you could but 5 rental properties instead, write off all your expenses, mortgage interest, condo fees, property tax, etc etc, and build equity for free on the backs of your tenants? you would be INSANE not to do that. so, this is what we wanted. this is what the government wanted. clearly. why are they reversing course now?

#60 Two-thirds on 04.06.22 at 8:17 pm

Not expecting many good news in tomorrow’ budget.

$ for Defence? The biggest problem is not funding but the Dali-esque labyrinth of procurement regulations that makes it nearly impossible to approve purchases in a reasonable time frame. Remember the F-35 procurement fiasco?

$ for Clean energy & decarbonization? Good to see support, but considering Canada does not materially generate either the raw materials, products or technologies needed to lower emissions, the BIG winners will be foreign sellers of this tech. Oh, yes, and some crumbs for the local installers…

$ for Housing? Suck and blow. This will sow more division between those in their 40s and above, and the young “moisters”.

As for interest rates: good to see an attempt at putting the inflation genie back in the bottle (which everyone who knows its history, will bring carnage, or perhaps fail). Once the next recession hits in 2023, what do you think the central banks will do?

Textbook answer?

BoC is putting on a good pantomime show now, and thus can defensibly claim that they acted to quell inflation. Once the recession arrives, however…

Down them rates go!!!

:(

#61 The Original Jake on 04.06.22 at 8:20 pm

Tomorrow’s budget rumours, the ink is still drying…

https://www.ctvnews.ca/politics/federal-budget-to-include-ban-on-foreign-home-buyers-billions-for-housing-1.5850968

#62 Shawn on 04.06.22 at 8:36 pm

Predictions are Easy… After The Fact

#59 mark on 04.06.22 at 8:11 pm

this was all so predictable. tax policy has even structured to incentivize real estate speculation and punish home ownership in canada for decades. why on earth would you buy a property to live in when you could but 5 rental properties instead, write off all your expenses, mortgage interest, condo fees, property tax, etc etc, and build equity for free on the backs of your tenants? you would be INSANE not to do that. so, this is what we wanted. this is what the government wanted. clearly. why are they reversing course now?

********************************

“this was all so predictable” Do you have documentation of predicting this “decades” (or even one decade) ago?

#63 yvr_lurker on 04.06.22 at 8:39 pm

Sure hope the Libs follow through on their promise to ban foreign money from purchasing residential real estate, even if it is just a temporary ban.
Looks like real estate has indeed peaked, down she goes!
——
Indeed. I hope that we follow Denmark and New Zealand in putting in this ban. However, it is never a controlled
experiment in economics. We will never be able to separate the effects due to higher interest rates for loans from the effect of the foreign ownership ban on the average selling price of homes. As a result of this conflation of effects, people of different political persuasions can interpret the “effect” however they please, but certainly according to whether they lean left or right. Economic policies do not lead to controlled experiments. An ugly pseudo-science.

#64 T-Man on 04.06.22 at 8:40 pm

Blackrock CEO Larry Fink told shareholders Russia’s invasion of Ukraine would fundamentally reshape the world economy and drive up inflation as supply chains are reconfigured. The “west” pretends everybody is on board the I Hate Everything Russian bandwagon tour. Except for China, India, Africa, South America, and parts of the “free and democratic west” like Hungary. Propaganda war lust prevails on our beloved M.S.M. Who’s isolating and inflicting economic pain on whom with these sanctions and prolonging an ugly war by feeding weapons and advisors into Ukraine?The circular firing squad GANG, of course.

#65 West New West on 04.06.22 at 8:50 pm

Budget day tomorrow….remember Freeland’s budget last year? It was referred to as the ‘Womens Budget’, all about empowering women, with a task force on women in the economy. I never heard anything about it since…..I wonder if they even remember back that far. I wonder if they just make this stuff up a few nights before, like a teenager who ‘crams for the finals’ at the last minute.

#66 Philco on 04.06.22 at 9:04 pm

#59 mark on 04.06.22 at 8:11 pm
==================
Cause you have done too well by doing so?
Socialism sells…..the have nots want their fair share and were up to our ass in debt.
More levers they pull the closer to the skids we get.

#67 Comrade on 04.06.22 at 9:11 pm

I am not sure about this cooling off that you speak of
here are a couple of examples, DOM 5 to 6 days, sell price 10%, 1.4mil for a 3bdr townhouse in port moody.

https://www.zealty.ca/mls-R2668293/21-301-KLAHANIE-DRIVE-Port-Moody-BC/

https://www.zealty.ca/mls-R2670273/72-100-KLAHANIE-DRIVE-Port-Moody-BC/

#68 Lumber on 04.06.22 at 9:23 pm

So, this week I’m in the middle of my yearly visit to my little hometown in Ontario. You know the one – where crappy houses that sat unsold for $90K five years ago and are now suddenly ‘hidden gems’ coquettishly asking $419K and selling for $680K…, and I have a few observations:

First: I’ve never been tailgated so much by angry speeding millennials in old rusted-out Jettas in my life but I understand they’re desperately trying to get to their third job today so they can make rent on their $1800 basement apartment.

Second: Privileged townsfolk cannot understand why people are suddenly living under bridges along the CN line. “Well, they just go to the housing office and they MUST be given a place to live..!” (My keyboard lacks the indignant tone)

Third: The cost of fish and chips at ‘The Boathouse’ restaurant has gone from $25 to $40.

Fourth: Every employed family member I talk to absolutely HATES their job.

Fifth: No-one has any idea what’s coming next…

T minus 3 days until my return home.

#69 neptunian on 04.06.22 at 9:43 pm

in logical thinkings, the sharp big trend in that chart should not happen, but it did.

in logical thinkings, the 180% debt to gdp ratio is not sustainable, but it’s been like that for a decade

in logical thinkings, 2 mils for so so small and 50 years old house doesn’t make sense, but it is the reality.

in logical thinkings, CBs should have raised rate much earlier and faster, but it didn’t happen.

in logical thinkings, a survey a couple of years ago showed that almost a quarter families had $200 or less left each month after all the expenses, those families should not be able to afford the current food/gas prices, but it seems everyone is fine

….

We Canadians are so special!.

let’s see if the # of listings goes up

#70 crowdedelevatorfartz on 04.06.22 at 9:46 pm

Our Fearless non finance Finance Minister Freeland will be on Vancouver’s Simi Sara radio show on Friday morning at 6:45am.

https://globalnews.ca/bc/program/the-simi-sara-show

Call in and ask her about Thursday’s budget.

#71 crowdedelevatorfartz on 04.06.22 at 9:51 pm

@#65 WNW
“I wonder if they just make this stuff up a few nights before, like a teenager who ‘crams for the finals’ at the last minute.”

+++

Nah.
They spend months writing, editing, massaging, rewriting, reediting a massive speech….then they spend several months gender neutering it with endless references to the ongoing politically correct battle.

#72 Nonplused on 04.06.22 at 10:00 pm

The HELOC thing is somewhat humorous, but then so is anything the Trudeau has done. If you like dark humor and tragedy that is.

So let’s see, you and your bank agree together that because you have x amount of equity in your house and are a good credit risk (job and all that maybe), they will lend you 0.6x for whatever purposes you have in mind. But then Trudeau comes along and says “hol’ up there! You aren’t thinking of using borrowed money to buy a house are you?? That’s only for maple syrup! I will be telling you what and what not you can spend your borrowed money on!”

But yet you can probably use the money to buy REITs who then go out and purchase real estate, and rent it out.

And who is forcing the small time landlords out of the market helping? Renters? No. It costs them more to own, and most of them rent because they do not have the credit or job history to get a mortgage (except for Garth’s readers who are just saving money). The problem was never the price of houses, because interest rates were low. It was that these folks just don’t qualify. Lowering the price of houses 30% while also raising interest rates isn’t going to solve that problem for these folks. They still won’t qualify.

So who gets a break on the price of houses? The REITs. If you follow the money, everything Trudeau does benefits primarily the already rich and connected. Even his pinwheels and solar panels. Have you got the wherewithal to get the grants and go first scheduling and high prices needed to make a reasonable return on a small installation, maybe on your roof? No you don’t. But the big guys do.

Lets face it, there isn’t going to be any sudden boon of affordable real estate that all the renters can afford no matter what Trudeau does. Sorry SunShowers, but owning a home has always been expensive. It will remain so. If the prices fall, for almost everybody that isn’t better if it is because of rising rates.

So house prices will not fall directly because of rising rates. It’ll be because rates have risen to the point where borrowers can’t make the monthly, and thus are no longer potential buyers. It isn’t going to help who you think it is.

“You will own nothing and be happy.”

Buy all the things. Even a rental or a REIT if it fits your investment profile.

#73 Ponzius Pilatus on 04.06.22 at 10:09 pm

#64 T-Man on 04.06.22 at 8:40 pm
Blackrock CEO Larry Fink told shareholders Russia’s invasion of Ukraine would fundamentally reshape the world economy and drive up inflation as supply chains are reconfigured. The “west” pretends everybody is on board the I Hate Everything Russian bandwagon tour. Except for China, India, Africa, South America, and parts of the “free and democratic west” like Hungary. Propaganda war lust prevails on our beloved M.S.M. Who’s isolating and inflicting economic pain on whom with these sanctions and prolonging an ugly war by feeding weapons and advisors into Ukraine?The circular firing squad GANG, of course.
—————
Sadly, I have to agree with you.
It’s better just watching old war movies.
At least, we know who “won”.

#74 Feds on 04.06.22 at 10:22 pm

Garth, I think you should let people post only once and limit the number of characters. Some of these jokers having conversations back and forth. Exchange numbers and text each other. The rest of us don’t care.

#75 Bronze Bullet on 04.06.22 at 10:22 pm

The impact from the long years of reported ‘growth’ is that now people are cutting on grocery purchases to the degree of looking for expiring products.

https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/canadians-cutting-back-on-groceries-due-to-inflation-yahoo-maru-survey-100034838.html


The survey of 1,514 Canadians found that a majority (60 per cent) say the cost of groceries is rising by so much that they are having to cut back to essential goods only. Those living in Atlantic Canada are most likely to scale back grocery purchases to the necessities (71 per cent), followed by Manitoba/Saskatchewan (69 per cent), Alberta (64 per cent), Ontario (61 per cent), British Columbia (56 per cent) and Quebec (52 per cent).

That’s not the only way Canadians are adapting to food inflation. The Yahoo/Maru Public Opinion survey found that over half of Canadians (52 per cent) say they are buying less food because of rising costs. Another 51 per cent say they are choosing to buy groceries at discount chains, while 56 per cent say they are cutting back on purchases of red meat because of the high price. Another 49 per cent say they search for “expiration date discounts” on meat products to save on costs
.

Of course the predicted 5-7 % increase of grocery prices are a giant lie.

Wholesale food prices in the last year increased between 20 and 30 % worldwide before the war, now with disruption in supply of grains, fertilizers and vegetable oils and with skyrocketing energy prices this will further get much worse.

Prices of key products – milk, meat have increased a lot.

And yet rates are at 0.5 % with real inflation firmly in double digits while the jokers at BoC threaten to increase the rates to 1 % way down the road to a maximum of 2-2.5 % top in this rate cycle.

IMHO we have not seen anything in terms of inflation yet.

The fact that there are brainwashed idiots who refuse to accept how high the real inflation is and the total failure of authority to fight it is worrying.

Let’s put it simple: As long as real interest rates stay negative (firmly in double digits and increasing) inflation will roar. So central banks will increase it vs. fighting it.

If we measure inflation as in the 70-es and 80-es we would have the highest inflation since world war 2, much higher than in the 70-es and 80-es with pathetic, pathetic rates, currently at practical zero, that will be capped at bellow 2.5 % as a top!

Germany just reported CPI of 8 % and accelerating, US will report pretty soon with absolute certainty double digits CPI, with real inflation double that.

And what are the rates for your saving accounts at the bank? Most people still get zero while paying increasing fees on their bank accounts.

And hey, keep trusting the central banks, they are committed to fight inflation and do ‘whatever it takes’ to control it.

Sure.

#76 Satori on 04.06.22 at 10:22 pm

#44 Al on 04.06.22 at 6:31 pm
My bet is that Liberals will increase spending by billions of dollars tomorrow. BoC in April will raise the rate by only .25. Inflation will be closer to 10%-12% which will cause the perfect storm in the markets. A full recession will bring much more suffering to investors and homebuyers.
———————————-
Agreed, what Al said – Worse.

Come on, our Finance Minister, who by the way has zero experience in finance…How could it be possibly better?? When the last time Chrystia FREELOADER did math was in high school?????

#77 Great Bear on 04.06.22 at 10:37 pm

Massive Trudeau hypocrisy . again.

https://financialpost.com/commodities/energy/oil-gas/ottawa-approves-equinors-us12-billion-offshore-oil-project

Norway has been pumping its hate for Canadian energy while filling its coffers with petroleum dollars. Now mere weeks after Trudeau spewed his hate foe Canadian energy he green lights Norway to drill off the East Coast and conveniently overturns a NL ban on drilling.

More money for enemy Norway , nothing for Canada. The hypocrisy of Guillbeat, Trudeau, Wilkinson etc. They couldn’t hate Canada more if the were burying Alberta kids in unmarked graves. Why isn’t Canadas rigs already in place allowed to produce? How many billions were lost when Liberals cancelled White Rose? Hypocrisy. Giving comfort to the enemy. No other country would ever do this to its own people.

#78 Overheardyou on 04.06.22 at 10:53 pm

I’m betting they only increase credit for newbie buyers and nothing else, since most still want a home they just can’t borrow enough to buy one

#79 mark on 04.06.22 at 11:00 pm

#62 Shawn that leading statement about the whole thing being predictable was for dramatic effect, don’t take everything so literal. you completely missed the main argument of the post which was that government policy has been clearly structured to cause this situation. if you don’t believe that, then please offer an alternative explanation why real estate investors enjoy so many tax breaks and write offs compared to principle residence owners. hmmmmmmmm???

#80 Ponzius Pilatus on 04.06.22 at 11:32 pm

#76 Satori on 04.06.22 at 10:22 pm
#44 Al on 04.06.22 at 6:31 pm
My bet is that Liberals will increase spending by billions of dollars tomorrow. BoC in April will raise the rate by only .25. Inflation will be closer to 10%-12% which will cause the perfect storm in the markets. A full recession will bring much more suffering to investors and homebuyers.
———————————-
Agreed, what Al said – Worse.

Come on, our Finance Minister, who by the way has zero experience in finance…How could it be possibly better?? When the last time Chrystia FREELOADER did math was in high school?????
———————-
Budgeting is more like chess than math.
And those Ukrainians are damn good at chess.
And BTW at what grade did you drop out of high school.

#81 DON on 04.06.22 at 11:49 pm

https://thehill.com/opinion/finance/3259197-nobel-economists-were-dead-wrong-on-inflation-dont-expect-an-apology/amp/

#82 Jason Sensation on 04.07.22 at 12:09 am

Hey Satori, on Freeland…

1. The woman was a Rhodes Scholar and went to Harvard and Oxford. Quit making her sound stupid.

2. Many finance ministers didn’t have a finance background. Jim Flaherty had an A.B. in sociology and was a lawyer mostly doing personal injury car accident settlement. Ralph Goodale was like Poilievre…career politician elected at 24. Gillies Loiselle who served with Garth for the PCs was a foreign correspondent for CBC News. Don Mazankowski was an entrepreneur but he sure didn’t study finance. Just high school for him.
Marc Lalonde was a lawyer too.

So the only real people with finance backgrounds in that post over the past 40 plus years have been Paul Martin (philosophy major…but was a businessman), Joe Oliver (finance guy), Michael Wilson (Bay Street dude), John Manley (Tax lawyer…and about as exciting as one), and the most qualified was Bill Morneau (MBA, master’s degree in economics from the London School of Economics, business guy, CEO, pension expert, etc).
I would say that as a financial journalist her credentials put her ahead of many.

#83 DON on 04.07.22 at 12:29 am

#55 I don’t know on 04.06.22 at 7:35 pm
My experience is those who cry the loudest about the cost of housing change their tune like a light switch the second they enter the market.

Government policy on affordable housing is absolutely important to addressing the affordability issue. But let’s be honest, most people “complaining” about affordability want a detached in an urban area at a discount.

That type of dwelling is a luxury.

Yes. Some highly speculative housing types like condos, and general real estate in far flung areas will stagnate.

Yes it will be a buying opportunity, for those bold enough.

The greedy will miss the boat again.

The market will take a breather, like it did in 2017. Those who bought in 2017 (like our host suggested -and was mocked by commenters expecting 50% discounts) were rewarded. Those who buy in the upcoming breather will be rewarded too.

So get ready. It will be over soon.

IDK

???????????

If you can’t tell the difference between 2017 and 2022 then you are living in a bubble of realtor delusion. The World that you knew for the last 30 years has shifted again. Nothing lasts forever. But keep on trolling trolling trolling!

#84 Midnight’s on 04.07.22 at 12:54 am

Yeah, that’s about right…

https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/international-news/canada/canada-begins-eugenics-program/

Love Armstrong or hate him. He’s one CRAZY smart guy. Armstrong was handling billions when millions were the in thing, fact! Lol…

#85 Midnight’s on 04.07.22 at 1:02 am

Question To anyone. How far back in Canadian history would we need to go to find another P.M. that has created this much damage and divide to the country?

#86 Satori on 04.07.22 at 1:21 am

#80 Ponzius Pilatus on 04.06.22 at 11:32 pm

Budgeting is more like chess than math.
And those Ukrainians are damn good at chess.
And BTW at what grade did you drop out of high school.
—————————————————
PP – Schooling doesn’t matter anymore, ask Trudeau, it’s ‘WHO’ you know, not what you know. New rules.

Ask Chrystia all about it on the radio with Ms. Sara mentioned above… and ask her if she plays chess. Maybe she’ll play a game with you, instead of Canada’s finances.

#87 Dr V on 04.07.22 at 1:43 am

59 mark

“….rental properties instead, write off all your expenses, mortgage interest, condo fees, property tax, etc etc, and build equity for free on the backs of your tenants? you would be INSANE not to do that.”

79 mark

“please offer an alternative explanation why real estate
investors enjoy so many tax breaks and write offs
compared to principle residence….”
—————————————————–

So Mark, if you owned any rentals, you would not need to ask this question, so you must be INSANE.

After you write down your massive $25k/yr (as you cannot raise the rent significantly on your long term
tenant) and write off those items, leaving say $10k,
which is then taxed at your marginal rate. Then after a few years, you decide to sell and pocket maybe $200k. Now I’m not clear on all the rules, but you may be taxed as income up to the value of those write-downs, then
taxed as a cap gain on what’s left.

And dont expect to sleep with 5 tenants and 5 mortgages.

The PR exemption is so much more straight forward. And you get to sleep in it!

And it’s “principal” residence.

#88 Dr V on 04.07.22 at 1:58 am

Mark – further to above. I checked my bank stock price
from when I bought a share of the rental, and if I had
DRIPed for the 15 years it took to pay off the mortgage, I’d be sitting on a much higher value and one juicy tax-advantaged dividend…….

#89 other guy in Vancouver on 04.07.22 at 2:14 am

They will make it worse because government has no interest in lowering prices; on the contrary, their goal is always to maximize cash flow.

#90 DON on 04.07.22 at 2:22 am

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/investing/globe-advisor/advisor-news/article-debt-and-cash-flow-management-take-priority-as-interest-rates-set-to/

“Boy, the way Glenn Miller played
songs that made the hit parade
Guys like me we had it made
Those were the days
Didn’t need no welfare state
ev’rybody pulled his weight
gee our old LaSalle ran great
Those were the days…”

#91 crowdedelevatorfartz on 04.07.22 at 8:20 am

@382 jason Sansation
“Many finance ministers didn’t have a finance background.

+++

No. But they could add.
One TRILLION dollars in debt.
Half a TRILLION dollars in the last five years.
Disgusting doesnt even begin to explain that grotesque expenditure of cash handouts.

Here’s how we can pay it back in less than a year.
If the Canadian budget received one dollar for every time Freeland nodded her head heat at everything Trudeau says…..our trillion dollar deficit would be a memory.

#92 Old Man River on 04.07.22 at 8:20 am

@#85

“Question To anyone. How far back in Canadian history would we need to go to find another P.M. that has created this much damage and divide to the country?”

***

Answer: Stephen Harper. We’re still cleaning up the mess that “Sweater Steve” and his Reform Party ilk left behind (And I’m no fan of the Libs).

#93 crowdedelevatorfartz on 04.07.22 at 8:24 am

@#85 Midnight
“Question To anyone. How far back in Canadian history would we need to go to find another P.M. that has created this much damage and divide to the country?”

+++
Papa Trudeau created quite a stir with the War Measures Act and the National Energy Program.
Seems the Quebec seperatists and Western alienation gained a bit of momentum after that…..

#94 HUNGRY BEAR on 04.07.22 at 8:27 am

Trudeau and company have appointed OPRAH to lead the country’s budget.

YOU GET A CAR, & YOU GET A HOUSE, & YOU GET A CHEQUE!

#95 Ponzius Pilatus on 04.07.22 at 9:00 am

#82 Jason Sensation on 04.07.22 at 12:09 am
Hey Satori, on Freeland…

1. The woman was a Rhodes Scholar and went to Harvard and Oxford. Quit making her sound stupid.

2. Many finance ministers didn’t have a finance background. Jim Flaherty had an A.B. in sociology and was a lawyer mostly doing personal injury car accident settlement. Ralph Goodale was like Poilievre…career politician elected at 24. Gillies Loiselle who served with Garth for the PCs was a foreign correspondent for CBC News. Don Mazankowski was an entrepreneur but he sure didn’t study finance. Just high school for him.
Marc Lalonde was a lawyer too.

So the only real people with finance backgrounds in that post over the past 40 plus years have been Paul Martin (philosophy major…but was a businessman), Joe Oliver (finance guy), Michael Wilson (Bay Street dude), John Manley (Tax lawyer…and about as exciting as one), and the most qualified was Bill Morneau (MBA, master’s degree in economics from the London School of Economics, business guy, CEO, pension expert, etc).
I would say that as a financial journalist her credentials put her ahead of many.
—————————
Thanks for doing the research.
This will hopefully shut some posters up.
But I doubt it.
Confirmation bias is powerful.

#96 Brian on 04.07.22 at 10:28 am

From today’s Financial Post.
Jack M. Mintz: A very grim fiscal tale
Inflation has shot up to almost six per cent — just where it was a half century ago

https://financialpost.com/opinion/jack-m-mintz-a-very-grim-fiscal-tale?utm_medium=Social&utm_source=Twitter#Echobox=1649340466

#97 Phylis on 04.07.22 at 10:39 am

#71 crowdedelevatorfartz on 04.06.22 at 9:51 pm
@#65 WNW
“I wonder if they just make this stuff up a few nights before, like a teenager who ‘crams for the finals’ at the last minute.”

+++

Nah.
They spend months writing, editing, massaging, rewriting, reediting a massive speech….then they spend several months gender neutering it with endless references to the ongoing politically correct battle.
Xxxxx
So, it’s a campaign speech.

#98 Quintilian on 04.07.22 at 10:53 am

Saw a clip of the Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland selecting a pair of shoes, as is traditionally done by finance ministers, preparing to deliver the budget.

It is obviously ceremonial, but I found it interesting that she would opt for the stiletto heels.

The woman is highly educated, has a liberal arts background and has an appreciation for the deeper meaning of things.

I am inclined to think the spiked heels are symbolic of the domination about to be exercised over the conservatives.

A lancing and piercing through the tiny but stone like hearts of the Cons.

#99 Brian on 04.07.22 at 10:59 am

Last time we had a Rhodes Scholar leader in Ontario and we know how well that worked out!

Bob Rae was awarded a Rhodes Scholarship to the University of Oxford

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bob_Rae#Memberships_and_Fellowships

#100 Sail Away on 04.07.22 at 11:06 am

#95 Ponzius Pilatus on 04.07.22 at 9:00 am

Re: Freeland

Thanks for doing the research.
This will hopefully shut some posters up.
But I doubt it.
Confirmation bias is powerful.

———-

I, for one, am perfectly content to judge entirely on job performance as finance minister.

#101 Brian on 04.07.22 at 11:12 am

Multiple D.C. insiders test positive for COVID after annual Gridiron Dinner

https://news.yahoo.com/multiple-d-c-insiders-test-184516874.html

#102 Jane Finch on 04.07.22 at 11:46 am

Not a friend in the world? What’s happened to Canada Mr Trudeau? Don’t Canada’s traditional allies have any trust in Mr Trudeau? There isn’t a single alliance that wants Trudeau as a partner. What is it? Is it Canada’s open door policy to Chinese spies? One wonders.

#103 Outrage on 04.07.22 at 11:48 am

Garth is right. Inflation is high and the CB and government planned all this. Highly in debt and a slave to live and raise a family. Good times and its going to get much worse. A 2008 moment is coming and the great reset begins. We all know now Canada is run by the WEF.
Any way the market has continuing its down trend. Hopefully most of you sold all of your holdings in the last couple of months. Maybe buy back when the waters aren’t so stormy. Remember its not what you make but what you keep. Preservation of capital is a must in old age especially in this coming depression.

None of which I said, believe or envision. – Garth

#104 Ponzius Pilatus on 04.07.22 at 11:59 am

#100 Sail Away on 04.07.22 at 11:06 am
#95 Ponzius Pilatus on 04.07.22 at 9:00 am

Re: Freeland

Thanks for doing the research.
This will hopefully shut some posters up.
But I doubt it.
Confirmation bias is powerful.

———-

I, for one, am perfectly content to judge entirely on job performance as finance minister.
—————————
And on what metrics are you judging her performance?
I hope not the ones dictated by your conformation bias.

#105 Russ on 04.07.22 at 12:28 pm

Ponzius Pilatus on 04.07.22 at 9:00 am

#82 Jason Sensation on 04.07.22 at 12:09 am
Hey Satori, on Freeland…

So the only real people with finance backgrounds …
—————————
Thanks for doing the research.
This will hopefully shut some posters up.
But I doubt it.
Confirmation bias is powerful.

==================================

Hi Ponz,

Thanks for pointing out Garth’s confirmation bias, as I’m sure many of us have suspected all along, but we don’t want him to shut up yet.

After all, he has referred to Freeland as “the non-financial Finance Minister” on a number of occasions.

Cheers, R

#106 Philco on 04.07.22 at 12:34 pm

#77 Great Bear on 04.06.22 at 10:37 pm
Massive Trudeau hypocrisy . again.
=======
Ya oil we dont need that stuff! Accept you’ll die without it here in Kanada.
And just another reason most think T2 is a poofer.
His plan was to get in bed with communist China. Drum up some biz with those unethical no humanitarian rights type peeps and the Walla economy is game on….NOT.
His Plan to go green…a solar panel and a windmill on your house and your good!
Accept for power storage and its clowdy the wind dont blow and heatpumps dont work at more than -15c and your car battery current drops exponentially in the cold…. See Europes expensive failures.

Mean while we should be only doing the majority of biz and trade with USA Mex cause we all got good stuff and all the tings we need.
The global trade models a joke, and some get it now. And thats why the awakening that he is an idiot. What I always knew :)
Love those hecklers

#107 Chris on 04.07.22 at 12:43 pm

BTW, it’s not just Canada.
Every CB in every developed country responded to Covid in the same way, trying to paper over the impact of a pandemic.

Exactly – a conservative gov would have done largely the same thing. The US is in largely the same predicament. There was no playbook for Covid and many of the supply chain issues are either Covid or Russia/Ukraine issues – nothing much the gov could do about either.

#108 jess on 04.07.22 at 1:12 pm

entwining or decoupled

Gangsters of the MediterraneanTambovskaya.In Spain alone, he had amassed at least $50 million in properties and businesses. Beyond his island refuge, he was said to control a global network of legitimate and illicit activities, ranging from jewelry stores and extortion rings to the gray-market sale of Soviet MiG-29 fighter jets. But even the scope of Petrov’s enterprises did not prepare Spanish investigators for what they heard when they began to listen in on his telephone calls.
https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2017/11/russian-mob-mallorca-spain/545504/

…..As the celebrants departed the party at a luxury hotel, the Emirati police arrested Kalashov on a Spanish warrant. Extradited back to Madrid, he was eventually convicted of money laundering and sentenced to seven years’ imprisonment, in what was one of the most important convictions overseas of a gangster from the former Soviet Union. But the Spanish fight did not end there. Kalashov, considered the most dangerous inmate in the country’s prison system, bombarded courts with appeals, plotted repeatedly to escape, and did his best to corrupt any officials he could reach, investigators say. In 2012, the FBI passed along a formal warning that the mafia was prepared to spend a million dollars to bribe a Spanish official for Kalashov’s release, a confidential FBI document indicates.

Petrov and his accomplices repeatedly overestimated prices for reselling each other real estate in Spain, thereby legalizing criminal profits.
https://www.spisok-putina.org/en/personas/petrov-2/

June of 2006 to Alexander Litvinenko, former FSB officer who was living in exile in London. After gaining asylum in Britain, Litvinenko had emerg He was also consulting for the British and Spanish intelligence services (as well as Russian businessmen and European companies) and he seemed to have expertise of special value to the Spanish investigators: He knew first-hand of Kalashov’s work for military intelligence in Chechnya, and had arrested Oniani himself in 1992, only to see him freed by corrupt senior officials, he said

By Sebastian Rotella, ProPublica
November 10, 2017
Putin And Mafia Danish Documentary
319,295 views
Mar 30, 2018
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ttM-O-j1AVs”

#109 Ponzius Pilatus on 04.07.22 at 1:29 pm

Exactly.
The world is now so inter connected, that one country (even the States) can only do so much on its own.
That’s why cooperation is so important.
Trump withdrawing from many international forums, certainly did not help.

#110 Sail Away on 04.07.22 at 2:00 pm

#104 Ponzius Pilatus on 04.07.22 at 11:59 am
#100 Sail Away on 04.07.22 at 11:06 am
#95 Ponzius Pilatus on 04.07.22 at 9:00 am

Re: Freeland

Thanks for doing the research.
This will hopefully shut some posters up.
But I doubt it.
Confirmation bias is powerful.

——–

I, for one, am perfectly content to judge entirely on job performance as finance minister.

——–

And on what metrics are you judging her performance?
I hope not the ones dictated by your conformation bias.

——–

Instantly stopping the deficit bleed.

If she can’t do that, I have no further use for any woke-ist garbage.

#111 Linda on 04.07.22 at 2:49 pm

#55 ‘I’ – I agree! those who want to purchase RE desire that detached house, hence insane prices of 1.5 to 2 million plus for even outright dumps in the GTA/YVR regions. Which are either promptly torn down & the biggest, fanciest abode possible is raised in place of the previous dwelling OR the run down property is stripped back to the studs & revamped into the granite countertop dream.

#112 Phylis on 04.07.22 at 2:55 pm

Betcha the next blog post comes after 4pm today. ;)

#113 Outrage on 04.07.22 at 3:14 pm

I meant the inflation part and interest rates rising.

#114 Yes and No ... Canada Prime Monster on 04.07.22 at 3:34 pm

DELETED

#115 Sail Away on 04.07.22 at 3:41 pm

Today I closed out our HELOC borrow-to-invest portfolio after a 9 month run. Total return 5%. Total cost of borrowing: 2% with 50% writeoff @ 50% tax bracket… so 1%.

9 month profit = 4%.

Worst performers: CPD at -6.20% and VSB at -4.83%. Best performers: RSG at 21.59% and XIC at 8.66%.

Meh.

#116 T-Man on 04.07.22 at 3:50 pm

#73 – Ponzius : Europe is destroying themselves by biting the hand that feeds it. Groveling at the feet of the EMPIRE OF LIES, they are receiving a self inflicted wound by banning everything Russian. It’s like they planned this? Great Reset?

#117 Pelican on 04.07.22 at 4:01 pm

#85 Midnight’s
John Deifenbaker upset the country in 1959 when he cancelled the Avro Arrow. Lots of fallout from that decision.
F73ON

#118 crowdedelevatorfartz on 04.07.22 at 4:15 pm

@#116 Troll Man
“Groveling at the feet of the EMPIRE OF LIES,”

+++

Good to see the Russian Hackers are still interested in little old Canadian blogs.

#119 Quintilian on 04.07.22 at 4:26 pm

Hey a Crowdie, good news , we will get you into social housing,and new dentures.
Gratis, no charge Garth et al will pick up the tab.

#120 Emma Zaun - GreaterFool Unpaid Intern #007 on 04.07.22 at 4:29 pm

Why the delay?

So we have to put in more unpaid overtime to wait to process the next blog’s deluge of deplorables while you watch the budget speech and put your sticky notes together? Is that it, Garth?

#121 Barb on 04.07.22 at 4:33 pm

The bank today charged me $1.00 for making a deposit to my account.

Where is the incredulous emoji?

#122 Michael in-north-york on 04.07.22 at 4:37 pm

Europe can exist quite well without anything Russian. They should have diversified away from Russian oil and gas years ago. Russia could not be seen as a solid business partner since 2014, when they invaded Ukraine for the first time.

Hopefully, Europe will do the needful and replace the Russian oil and gas very soon. Poland and the 3 Baltic states already switched to LNG. Germany is going to cut its dependency on the Russian energy imports by 2/3 before the end of 2022. Way to go.

#123 David Greene on 04.07.22 at 8:43 pm

Yeah, it sounds good. However the problem with LNG is it’s extremely energy-intensive to produce, as it requires great amounts of pressure to liquify the gas. For those reasons, it’s both more expensive, and worse for the environment.

But of course, in the short run, anything that gets us way from Putler is probably a good thing.

===================================
#122 Michael in-north-york on 04.07.22 at 4:37 pm

Europe can exist quite well without anything Russian. They should have diversified away from Russian oil and gas years ago. Russia could not be seen as a solid business partner since 2014, when they invaded Ukraine for the first time.

Hopefully, Europe will do the needful and replace the Russian oil and gas very soon. Poland and the 3 Baltic states already switched to LNG. Germany is going to cut its dependency on the Russian energy imports by 2/3 before the end of 2022. Way to go.

#124 Jangle on 04.08.22 at 12:15 am

#121 Barb. If you have less than $10 thousand in your acct you pay all service charges. Over 10k balance you pay none. Trick- One family member has $10k and sign POA over others and bank refunds all service charges. It’s great for kids who only use their plastic, debit cards . They can rack up ugly bills in s/c but you’ll never pay. A perk for high balance customers.

#125 Chris L. on 04.08.22 at 8:40 am

BANNED