Two more sleeps. Will the feds mess up the real estate market more? Will they try catering to the homeless Mills and Zeds with stuff making houses cost more? Or crash the market by pulling the rug out from under investors responsible for part of the surge? And what about that weird FHSA which would let kiddos take a Bank of Mom down payment and render it tax-deductible?
We’ll see. But expect something. Big, I imagine.
Meanwhile what’s happening on the street?
For a few weeks now, agents have been seeing fewer offers, reduced showings, more listings and softening prices. The monthly stats (out Tuesday) don’t really reflect the rapidity of this yet, but everybody is seeing it. No crash. Just a general ennui-melt settling in after the rabid hormonal excess of the last half year.
In the country’s biggest marketplace (the Fordian Empire of GTA) sales are down 30% year/year, although March was better than February (it always is). In fact the decline in sales was less than the 12% drop in active listings, which is significant. Prices are down month/month. The average is now slightly less than the $1.3 million clocked a few weeks ago.
And, lordy, see this: that much-vaulted $2 million barrier for a 416 detached palace that we cracked last month has been erected again. In February a buyer would have shelled out $2,073,989, but saved $153,971 if she’d waited until March. That’s a drop of 7.4%. Hardly a pittance.
Same in the soulless 905. A detached there is ‘only’ $1.632 million, now cheaper by a hundred grand, or 5.5%.
How about crazy Vancouver?
Similar tale. Sales down more than 23% year/year, but up a similar amount from February. Meanwhile new listings have shot up by about a fifth, while the sales-to-active-listings ratio for detached is down to 38% (for condos it’s 70%). Unlike in the GTA, prices climbed a little (3.6%) month/month and detached homes stayed north of $2 million but sales tanked 34%.
So, judge for yourself. It’s prime rutting season. Lots of buyers anxious to ‘beat’ mortgage rate increases by buying now. Increasing inventories and more choice. And yet sales are off and (in Ontario) so are prices.
Why?
Simple. If you flip back to yesterday’s awesome blog and look at Canadian income levels it’s easy to see we’re in never-never land for house prices. Every week fewer people are able, willing or nuts enough to take on a seven-figure mortgage to purchase a so-so property, especially the way sellers want – with no conditions, no home inspection and copious dog droppings left in the backyard.
And now look what politicians are doing.
In BC an insane cooling-off period is about to be enacted, making it possible for buyers to back out and impossible for sellers to get a firm deal. In Ontario the province has imposed a withering 20% tax on the purchase price of any property by a newcomer who is not yet a resident. In Nova Scotia the province has just imposed a 5% closing day tax on the value of an home bought by a non-local Canadian, plus a recurring 2% tax on its value. In Toronto, Vancouver, Ottawa and other places local governments are enacting annual ‘vacancy’ taxes on properties politicians think are not occupied enough during a year. And British Columbia has its ‘speculation’ tax aimed at keeping frisky Albertans out.
All these taxes increase real estate costs. So far none have lowered prices. What a lose-lose.
At the same time mortgage rates have been quietly swelling like a teenager in love. The cost of a fiver has doubled in six months and next week the central bank will jump its benchmark rate by a fat half-point.
And Chrystia? What have she and Jag cooked up?
The expectation is a suite of changes to whack investors (35% down, no use of HELOCs for down payments), some way to end blind bidding and double-ending by agents, an increase in the CMHC ceiling to $1.25 million and maybe that first-home savings plan thingy.
In conclusion: (a) the political class cannot keep its fingers off real estate, (b) nothing governments have done has fixed anything, and (c) high housing prices may be the best cure for high housing prices, as Mr. Market does his thing.
The advice stands. A seller, not a buyer, be.
About the picture: “This is our little dog, Pip,” write Gerry and Lois. “Sadly, she died last month and we hope she can make it onto your blog, posthumously. She survived on her own, was rescued from a kill shelter, and we were the lucky ones to adopt her. She loved coffee, car rides, and belly rubs and we obliged her all of these. She lived the rest of her life like Frank Sinatra, “My Way”. We have moved to Florida, but we still read your blog to find out what’s really happening in Canada. And, as Pip would never have given you an MSU, we will! We still proudly display our signed copy of one of your books on our bookshelf in Jacksonville Beach, Florida! Thanks for your blog and all your advice!”
108 comments ↓
I don’t agree that BC’s cooling off period meets the “insane” test – it just legislates what used to be normal, a week to do an inspection and satisfy whatever other conditions a conventional real estate deal would require.
But agents hate it, so that tells you something.
Hi Garth,
Would you mind clarifying something for me please, so I don’t sound like (more of) a lunatic when talking to my friends about this?
You said on the entry for Apr 3:
“That [the $150 billion in spending, and triple-digit deficits] will be added to the nation’s debt, now well over $1 trillion, and soon to require annual interest charges larger than almost every social program (over $40 billion).”
Do you mean to say the interest charges will be more than any social program, individually? Or all social programs combined?
Individually. – Garth
Just curious, What’s to stop a corporation from buying on a non-residents behalf to avoid the new taxes? Do they do a money laundering investigation similar to BC?
Ponzo
I left you some cool stuff last blog.
weeeeeeeeeeee
Look at that puppy fly.
https://www.debtclock.ca
A townhouse in my my area was listed for 1 mln a few days ago and sold yesterday for 1.5 mln.
Listing below market value is a common realtor tactic to impress the impressionable. – Garth
Ponzo ya got me fired up!!
Read my lips.
MOST PEEPs DONT KNOW WHATs GOOD FOR THEM. That’s why we got’s awesome management.
Agreed. The more interference there is with the free market, the worse prices get because it destroys incentives to build. Compare states with more and less regulation, and look at house prices. Or look at countries that mandate oil prices, and look at how messed up they get. The free market is amazing at balancing supply and demand if you let it.
Talked to dozens of agents this week, things are surprisingly quiet for a post Covid spring.
Buyers are savy (After-all 40% are spec/investors) and maybe it is time to cool it and get on a plane to somewhere warmer until things shake out.
Fairly significant drop in asking prices showing up in the 905.
US 30 year mortgage hit 5%. First time since 2011. The rate was 3.38% 12 months ago. (That is a 48% rise) Canadian rates have to follow.
BoC has put Canada in a grave mess….only interest rates effect real estate pricing.
Crack shacks are $2M in Vancouver…yet we’re selling in 24hours.
If things were soooo extreme when prices went up, can something extreme happen in the opposite direction? What sort of correction is coming up?
The NDP is in charge now.
Hello.
I am a Nobel Prize-winning economist* and I am here to say with 99.999% certainty that the US Fed doesn’t give a rat’s behind about the price of real estate in Vancouver, Toronto, Kelowna, or any other place your overpriced bungalow is located. They will make their interest rate decisions with no regard whatsoever to the fact that your outdoor kitchen with an Italian marble countertop is financed with a HELOC on a home that you only paid a 5% downpayment on and in which you have little equity, nor the fact that you will get crushed when the Fed raises their rate and the BoC is forced to follow.
Sorry, but it’s the truth.
*I am not
US Federal Reserve minutes to be releases tomorrow.
-World round-up. Pleased to see we are this close to normalcy. Just two more weeks guys.
What’s next? Digital currency — that may be shut off when you are non compliant?
MMT?
Communism/suspended elections?
The young must never again known normalcy.
.Quebec extends COVID-19 mask mandate until April 30 (montreal.ctvnews.ca)
.Brock University defies trend and vows to continue mandatory masks and vaccination on campus (ottawacitizen.com)
—
— Ah that pesky New World Order. It dropped that cold winter week March 2020.
Appears set to run for years, min. 2024-25.
Factoid: YOU NO LONGER HAVE A RIGHT TO GET SICK; YOU NO LONGER HAV A RIGHT TO BE HEALTHY.
.‘This is inhumane’: the cost of zero Covid in Shanghai (theguardian.com)
.Shanghai to extend lockdown of 26 million people as it reviews COVID test results (reuters.com)
.China sends military, doctors to Shanghai to test 26 million residents for COVID (reuters.com)
.Shanghai asks entire city to self-test for COVID as frustration grows (news.yahoo.com)
.NYC mask mandate for kids under 5 remains in place, parents to protest at City Hall (msn.com)
.UK expands Covid symptoms list adding nine new signs of illness (standard.co.uk)
.Malaysia announces that covid is endemic, but will still have an outdoor and indoor mask mandate.
— Oh those ‘rednecks’?
.Alabama COVID-19 hospitalizations drop to pandemic low (al.com)
“The advice stands. A seller, not a buyer, be.”
———
I’ll sit this one out on the sidelines, thanks.
In the medium term and especially in the long term, the world economy is increasingly facing the prospect of a recession that will lead to a sharp drop in energy demand. For the Alberta economy, this will be like a rollercoaster again.
Yes Garth the RE markets looking like its chill time.
Ya hey my Grandsons 5 months old can wait a little while longer then I can tell him he’s got $40,000 in debt.
Right Ponzo? A fine job indeed.
#6 Philco on 04.05.22 at 3:43 pm
Ponzo ya got me fired up!!
Read my lips.
MOST PEEPs DONT KNOW WHATs GOOD FOR THEM. That’s why we got’s awesome management.
———–
Philly,
What did I say that got you so riled up?
That’s how the cookie crumbles in our electoral system.
People vote, and the Government is being formed based on some previously agreed upon, and therefore, legal rules.
You or I may not like it, but that’s the way it is.
Just hunker down.
It’s only a few years from now.
Canada survived the Harper years.
Did she not.
And BTW, you and CEF should team up and form the Anti-Everything Party. AEP.
Stop it bro. We don’t need you promoting price drops in our industry. We’ve got car lease payments to make.
Talk about dogs or investments instead. Or I will come over there and SLAP YOU SILLY!
@#16 Ponzies Political Party Poopers
“And BTW, you and CEF should team up and form the Anti-Everything Party. AEP.”
+++
How about FRAP?
Fantasy Revenue Assures Penury
We’ll vote for whoever balances the budget.
Canadians living in my neck of the woods – two people living in a 5 BR house sitting around and telling each other how much their house is worth.
#140 Old boot
If the early Europeans wanted to kill off the Indigenous populations in Canada, residential schools would not have been their first choice of methods. They could simply have denied them rifles, ammo, canned goods, flour, medicines, education, and financial support. The passage of time would have accomplished the rest.
——————————
I think this is worthy a repost and a rebuke.
If Garth allows.
Still can’t get my head around it.
Probably the worst case of victim shaming that I’ve ever come around.
I hope that poster is isolated somewhere, so he can’t harm anyone.
Probably calls himself a Christian.
A townhouse in my my area was listed for 1 mln a few days ago and sold yesterday for 1.5 mln.
Listing below market value is a common realtor tactic to impress the impressionable. – Garth
Soviet Capitalist, could you provide the crowd with the listing?
#18 crowdedelevatorfartz on 04.05.22 at 4:45 pm
@#16 Ponzies Political Party Poopers
“And BTW, you and CEF should team up and form the Anti-Everything Party. AEP.”
+++
How about FRAP?
Fantasy Revenue Assures Penury
We’ll vote for whoever balances the budget.
————————-
Ok, let’s see .
Assume FRAP will promise to balance the budget.
But, in order to do that, they will drastically increase income taxes on plummers.
And install a 50% wealth tax on investments over 1 million.
You’d still be in?
I would.
#7 Arm chair economist on 04.05.22 at 3:47 pm
Agreed. The more interference there is with the free market, the worse prices get because it destroys incentives to build. Compare states with more and less regulation, and look at house prices. Or look at countries that mandate oil prices, and look at how messed up they get. The free market is amazing at balancing supply and demand if you let it.
++++++++++++++++++++++
Excellent comment. It reminds me of the bus system in Mexico City. It is (or was?) composed of a bunch of individuals who owned their own buses and made up their own routes to maximize their own revenue. It so happens that maximizing their revenue also went hand in hand with serving as many people as possible in as efficient a manner as possible. Win-Win. No government intervention. Good efficiency, low cost.
Now, could they build a subway the same way? Of course not. Certain projects require government intervention. But not all projects. Most are best left to the free market to sort it out.
Apartments selling in the same building with variations from $485 a square foot to $780 a square foot…IN THE SAME building, no view.
Interesting that Realtor.ca and all you get is the price.
Redfin has the price history, how much per square foot, what is selling in the area, taxes, strata fees and loads of important information.
Canadian Realtors want you to use ‘Realtor.ca’ so you don’t see that and can’t make a knowledgeable offer… all they want you to see is the pretty pics and price.
Realtor.ca is a joke, but well, but well as we know, most Canadians don’t care.
“All these taxes increase real estate costs. So far none have lowered prices. What a lose-lose.”
-This pretty much sums it up. There isn’t much any government can do to stop prices from increasing.
The paradigm around housing shifted about 2 decades ago, and will never return to what it was. The average family being able to afford the average house was a post world war 2 aberration in North America. In most places on earth, land is passed down through generations, or exclusive to the ultra wealthy. We are merely catching up.
Essentially, rising interest rates are going to make houses less affordable, not more.
A few caveats. Whereas urban houses in desirable areas will continue to increase, condos/townhomes/and detached in far flung areas will stagnate or drop in price. Similar to 2017 when our gracious host advised to purchase real estate (and was mocked by the greedy who were hoping for larger drops in prices), it will be a buying opportunity. A buying opportunity that will be missed by 95% of people sitting on the sidelines hoping rate hikes will take us back to 2012 when they should have bought the first time, like always.
IDK
Wish Thursday would come quicker! Not sleeping at night anxiously awaiting the budget. This should be a good one!
#24 Doomer
Excellent comment. It reminds me of the bus system in Mexico City. It is (or was?) composed of a bunch of individuals who owned their own buses and made up their own routes to maximize their own revenue. It so happens that maximizing their revenue also went hand in hand with serving as many people as possible in as efficient a manner as possible. Win-Win. No government intervention. Good efficiency, low cost.
————-
Reminds me of the drug cartels.
Everything is okey-dokey, until someone wants to be the “Capo di Capi”.
Oh, that’s the Mafia.
But you get the idea.
Two more sleeps. Garth
Time to get a life? ;)
Garth, I’m sure you’ll cover this, but I suppose it’s likely in our best interest to realize our gains from non-sheltered investment accounts? I’m sure one of the first grabs will be capital gains tax increase on realized gains from these investment accounts.
#22 Ponzius Pilatus on 04.05.22 at 5:08 pm
Ok, let’s see .
Assume FRAP will promise to balance the budget.
But, in order to do that, they will drastically increase income taxes on plummers.
And install a 50% wealth tax on investments over 1 million.
You’d still be in?
I would.
——–
Of course you would. You are neither the Austrian hero Christopher Plummer, nor do you have investments over $1M.
Socialists love few things more than penalizing others.
@#21 Ponzies Plumber “Problem”
“But, in order to do that, they will drastically increase income taxes on plummers.
And install a 50% wealth tax on investments over 1 million.”
+++
I don’t have a problem with a hideous tax on plumbers.
because …..I’m not a plumber.
:)
As for the 50% tax on investments over $1 million….
Fine by me.
Which one?
They are all individually below $1 million.
Cumulatively ….is another matter.
I’m sure some slick accountant can find away around the tax.
A flat tax of 15 to 20% for everyone and everything would be fair…. but all those accountants would be broke.
Boo Hoo.
#25 I don’t know on 04.05.22 at 5:23 pm
“All these taxes increase real estate costs. So far none have lowered prices. What a lose-lose.”
-This pretty much sums it up. There isn’t much any government can do to stop prices from increasing.
The paradigm around housing shifted about 2 decades ago, and will never return to what it was. The average family being able to afford the average house was a post world war 2 aberration in North America. In most places on earth, land is passed down through generations, or exclusive to the ultra wealthy. We are merely catching up.
Essentially, rising interest rates are going to make houses less affordable, not more.
A few caveats. Whereas urban houses in desirable areas will continue to increase, condos/townhomes/and detached in far flung areas will stagnate or drop in price. Similar to 2017 when our gracious host advised to purchase real estate (and was mocked by the greedy who were hoping for larger drops in prices), it will be a buying opportunity. A buying opportunity that will be missed by 95% of people sitting on the sidelines hoping rate hikes will take us back to 2012 when they should have bought the first time, like always.
IDK
*******
Did you actually read and understand what Garth wrote or did you just copy and paste from last time?
Trolling trolling trolling.
prices became detached from incomes a long time ago; with expected rate increases, we will see who has been swimming naked.
Ponzi
In the end most will be a ok….just some choking on things alone the way.
I listened to one of the best fund managers in the country.
He said that the increase biz in the resource sector and the coin that’s coming off the top is huge for Kanada.
All they gotta do is stop spending and they could actually balance the budget in 2 years.
Not going to happen with the spendies at the helm but give form of hope. These guys are just children running the show.
Anyway I’m still diworsifying some loot to another country.
RIP ‘Pip’. Lived a happy life once rescued:)
The 20% Ontario tax that applies to ‘a newcomer who is not yet a resident’. So does that apply to Canadian citizens/residents who move to Ontario from other parts of Canada or is this exclusively applied to immigrants? Could this tax be avoided by renting until residency is established prior to making a purchase?
So, looked up the Ontario non-resident tax. While it is meant to apply only to foreign corporations or individuals, there are certain circumstances where Canadian residents or citizens could end up having to pay the tax. This could occur if any of a group of purchasers in common – say a group of investors buying a condo building – meet the criteria of a ‘foreign’ entity. If so, the law states the non resident tax applies to the full purchase price of the property in question & the onus of paying that tax falls on ALL the purchasers, not just designated foreign buyer.
#26 Ballingsford on 04.05.22 at 5:27 pm
Wish Thursday would come quicker! Not sleeping at night anxiously awaiting the budget. This should be a good one!
==================
LOL hoping for a free pony?
This cauldron of boiling witch brew is just about ready to poison the Canadian economy – fasten your seatbelts, take your protein pills and set the controls for the dark side of the moon – gonna be trippy
#31 crowdedelevatorfartz on 04.05.22 at 5:52 pm
@#21 Ponzies Plumber “Problem”
“But, in order to do that, they will drastically increase income taxes on plummers.
And install a 50% wealth tax on investments over 1 million.”
+++
I don’t have a problem with a hideous tax on plumbers.
because …..I’m not a plumber.
:)
As for the 50% tax on investments over $1 million….
Fine by me.
Which one?
They are all individually below $1 million.
Cumulatively ….is another matter.
I’m sure some slick accountant can find away around the tax.
A flat tax of 15 to 20% for everyone and everything would be fair…. but all those accountants would be broke.
Boo Hoo.
————
Can’t answer a straight question.
Would be the perfect Polititian.
Sorry, but can’t dumb it down any more for you and Sailo to get it.
man…stuff at the gym is starting to ramp up! I don’t know what i’m doing anymore. I don’t want it to stop. Oh those smiles…those giggles…Gimmie L-Dopa and oxy ’till I croak – which better not be anytime soon. Little blues got me anytime. Sig. others gettin’ cuter…pheww!
It’s mine…it’s my shit…I brought it upon my human self and every molecule is in tune. You wanna connect? let’s start with a hug….a long hug…them baby blues, they kill you
Don’t stop now. Don’t stop ever…I gotchu…raise the bar when you’re ready…
Pheww, great comment section!
Og
I received my pre-election bribe from Ford in the form of a ‘rebate’ cheque of auto plate renewal fees.
Which party in this country will actually tackle the debt and treat us like adults?
#40 og
You be trippin dude – trippin to the dark side of the moon
Can someone explain why Preferreds dip when the markets have a bad day, in spite of rising rates. Are they experiencing some sort of excess blow off as well? Is it possible there are two forces at play — the markets (pushing down) and rising rates (pushing up) and we are just seeing the net result?
Daily moves are 100% irrelevant. – Garth
43 crowdedelevatorfartz on 04.05.22 at 11:25 am
p.s. No booze since last Oct ( lost 16 lbs) and I don’t touch drugs….
What’s your excuse?
/////////////////////////////
Hey Crowdie, me too, not sure when I stopped but haven’t had a drop this year I know for sure.
Probably stopped drinking at the end of last summer.
My conspiracy theory is they put something in my Moderna vaccine second shot to stop people drinking, because that was probably around the same time, TurnerNation you heard anything on this?
I only normally drink hard liquor when I go camping, since I’m a light sleeper it helps my into a deeper sleep, if a bear wants to walk by 20 tents to have a crack at my hard-sided RV, then full power to them, the vodka will numb the pain of losing an arm or two.
I will probably make a drinking comeback, beer only, when the weather gets above 20.
I don’t think I can handle the heat and the workplace Bureaucracy at
the same time.
I came home during the heatwaves of last summer in Vancouver, and instead of trying to explain to Mrs Flop some of the stupidity that happens at work, I found it easier to just shout “Beer!”…
M47BC
I’d like to comment about yesterday’s post that I did not read till today, if I may?
I think the highest marginal tax rate was something like 90 percent in those good ol’ days in the 1950s.
If anything, thank (in this case) blame the lobbyists who pushed to have the corporate taxes dumped on the shoulders of the individuals. REITs anyone?
Capitalism: A love story is a good source of info on how things evolved for the benefit of the 1% that don’t want to pay their fair share.
#25 I don’t know
“In most places on earth, land is passed down through generations, or exclusive to the ultra wealthy. We are merely catching up.”
It’s ok to fib for levity, but you should make sure people know you are fibbing otherwise you could be taken for an ill-informed liar.
In most of Europe and developed economies, Price to Earnings ratios are still within affordability.
Canada, however, is the second most overvalued housing market in the developed world.
Housing bubbles are reoccurring, but also temporary phenomenon, and they always pop
#39 Ponzius Pilatus on 04.05.22 at 6:58 pm
Can’t answer a straight question.
Would be the perfect Polititian.
Sorry, but can’t dumb it down any more for you and Sailo to get it.
———
Thanks for trying, P. Try bringing it to the really dumb level where nobody’s trying to get more hands in my wallet.
Crazy talk, I know.
” In Toronto, Vancouver, Ottawa and other places local governments are enacting annual ‘vacancy’ taxes on properties politicians think are not occupied enough during a year.”
====================================
If they applied this tax In Markham, they will have a field day.
There are 2 homes that I know of In my neighborhood that have been sitting empty for several months.
So what? – Garth
Facts don’t matter, the rule of law doesn’t matter
.. the story telling fictions are about to end and reality of human nature sinks in ….. as the recent images from Ukraine of people bound and shot/ tongues pulled out suggest war crimes have been committed, “the question is by whom.”
…all killing is criminal period .
@#44 Flop
Yep Vodka or beer.
I worked with a Ukrainian that would drink both, alternating, all night long.
Never showed the effects
I thought the vaccine was CAUSING me to drink.
Decided to cold turkey and take a few months off.
The 16lb weight loss, plus the extra cash in the wallet, also helped.
Almost 6 months in.
I may swill on Easter Weekend. 4 days to recuperate…
Wonder if adult kids staying with mom and pops are being put as ‘living’ in these vacant homes. Who could prove they are vacant… how does that work exactly. Can you say your kid lived there?
They better find a way to keep home prices affordable and food inflation reined in, because when Canadians are one meal and one rental arrears away from becoming the starving homeless, revolutions usually happen.
It always does.
Adam Vaughan already got himself on top of the food chain due to his antics on TVO last year.
#50 crowdedelevatorfartz on 04.05.22 at 8:39 pm
Decided to cold turkey and take a few months off.
================
That could explain why your commentary has been less obnoxious.
If they applied this tax In Markham, they will have a field day.
There are 2 homes that I know of In my neighborhood that have been sitting empty for several months.
So what? – Garth
——–
You don’t get it, and I doubt you will ever really understand the issue. Go look at Coal Harbour at night. My friend has an ice cream shop in that hood. Lights out on 90% of all these high rise apartments at night, as few people actually live there. All price points, from third floor to the top. Is everyone out clubbing, even during COVID? Nope. Bought as an “investment” waiting for the price to rise, and companies hired to turn the lights on and off periodically to make it look like there is someone living there. It is a plague that is spread over many areas of Vancouver. I am perfectly happy to tax that behavior punitively and for the Gov’t to ferret out those slick individuals who pretend they occupy their suites or rent them out 6 months a year. Bring it on. It will make housing MORE affordable for those who have to rent. Full stop.
Jealousy speaking. Punishing people with assets you covet will not make them cheaper. – Garth
@#39 Ponzie’s Political promises
“Can’t answer a straight question.
Would be the perfect Polititian.”
+++
Ok.
I’ll run as a Conservative but you have to promise to campaign and vote for…..me.
Stubborn and Smelly is our slogan.
:0
Unbeatable.
In Flopville sales seem to be slowing but prices are still elevated.
Vancouver Specials that could only muster 1.8 in 2017 are going for 2.1
You see the occasional small bungalow go for less than 1.5, but during the correction I documented on this very blog, you probably could have gotten the same one for around a million 4 years ago, when there was a dip.
If you’re in Greater Vancouver, and a house sells and you want to know immediately what it went for, just sign up at former Greaterfool Alumni, Adam Major’s real estate website Zealty.
Click on the map setting and you can see everything unfolding in the city in a few moments.
I think most speculation attempts East of Cambie have been successful the last few years, Westside different story, success, but not as ubiquitous as East Van and beyond out into the valley of no Hope.
Let’s see what happens this time, will it be a dip, a blip, or a full-on face rip…
M47BC
sean,
here is the listing
https://www.zoocasa.com/toronto-on-real-estate/9-70-upper-canada-dr
– We pay high taxes for all the rad services we enjoy! World class service.
https://westernstandardonline.com/2022/04/the-postman-only-rings-three-times-and-canadians-are-ok-with-that/
“Most Canadians are good if Canada Post cuts back mail delivery to three days a week, say in house Privy Council polling.”
— Control over our feeding? For their health Comrades.
.COVID-19 lockdown leaves Shanghai residents terrified, low on food (theglobeandmail.com)
—
— Almost over guys! Fact: Kanada has signed contracts for this into 2024. These contracts must be fulfilled. You work for T2, now.
“OTTAWA — The federal government will consider whether to include booster shots in the next version of the COVID-19 vaccine mandate for its workers, the Treasury Board said as it reviews the rules.
Laura Osman, The Canadian Press”
— Why would they need a court order? The Science is Settled.
https://beta.ctvnews.ca/local/windsor/2022/3/11/1_5816089.amp.html
“‘Data is power’: Experts weigh-in on court-ordered release of Pfizer vaccine documents”
Jealousy speaking. Punishing people with assets you covet will not make them cheaper. – Garth
—
No jealousy. I own a 3.1M house with a 200K mortage still to pay. I am set. I am worried like everyone I know in my age group that our kids will not have the same opportunities with housing that I had. If rich dudes and investors hord housing in many hoods in the city, waiting for the selling price to rise, and not renting it out, it is certainly bad for those who are trying to rent. Restricted supply, and with restriction the price goes up. Bad for everyone except for those investors who buy up the monopoly board. I hope that these types are hoovered in the budget and taxed into the ground.
@#53 Observer
“That could explain why your commentary has been less obnoxious.”
+++
Be still my heart…
Fartzy will be back in full intoxication mode soon…
critical of politicians…. perhaps turn your glance to lawyers / hedge fund managers?
https://sunlight-reports.com/money-laundering-nuggets/
March 21, 2017
https://qz.com/938504/the-top-50-global-banks-allegedly-involved-in-the-20-8-billion-russian-laundromat-money-laundering-scheme/
#54 yvr_lurker on 04.05.22 at 8:51 pm
Re:Coal Harbour is the most noticeable for sure ,I used to live there so I know ,whole floors empty ,10 cars in parking level for hundreds ,a.s.o.
The issue Garth is that whole neighbourhods are dead, zombie ,no business other than fake ones can survive there so there is lots of empty retail space and not much else.
How does that benefit downtown Vancouver ,or the closeby businesses on Robson or Pender ?
It doesn’t of course ,just hollows out the city and benefits the global elite.
just to share the market/investor sentiment as I see:
A mortgage broker, who has incredible reputation in a specific community, just published a long blog. the main point, in summary, keep buying! if you have annual income > 140K in last decade and you own less than 10 properties in GTA, you are a loser!
a blog reader (in his/her thirties) who has bought 3 investment properties in last couple years couldn’t thank the broker enough, and planning to buy more.
… …
Be calm but focused tonight.
“The top US military officer told lawmakers Tuesday that the world is becoming more unstable and the “potential for significant international conflict is increasing, not decreasing.”
https://www.cnn.com/
Tomorrow, the USA will begin enhanced sanctions against Russia. The war crimes will escalate and the West will have no choice but to send in the troops within days. Putin already knows he is in his final corner.
https://www.cnn.com/2022/04/05/politics/russia-sanctions-wednesday/index.html
Nukes within days. Catastrophe and chaos after that.
Ukraine’s food production losses alone will doom tens of millions to starvation and death this year, even if they dodge the nukes.
Get your vehicle fuelled and packed. Stay away from Ottawa, Toronto, Calgary and Vancouver. Garth, keep well clear of Halifax, it will be in a major naval target area.
PREPARE
This is why it is undeniable that Alberta is by far the hottest place to invest in real estate. Back in 2007, Calgary actually had higher real estate prices than Toronto. Now, Toronto is double the price. Oil prices are back up and you won’t find any of this anti-foreign buyer stuff in Alberta, nor will you find any laws at all to squash the real estate market. You also won’t find any land transfer taxes at all. It’s the best kept secret in Canada. Both Calgary and Edmonton are poised for significant growth while the rest of Canada probably sees price drops.
interesting exploration found in this Cartel Finance Map
https://data.justiceformyanmar.org/
March 27, 2022
Russia is a major supplier of arms and related equipment to the Myanmar military, and has aided and abetted its international crimes, including genocide, war crimes and crimes against humanity.
#8 Old Ron the Realtor
Your the realtor but is the investment side really pushing 40% of the total market? Hope not or else we are in for a rougher ride then i though.
Sentiment has changed thats for sure– i go to different sites weekly/monthly ranging from job sites to construction trailers to the downtown towers etc… talking to a pretty diverse group of people in various income ranges and jobs all throughout the GTA and slightly beyond.
For some unknown reason people always want to talk (im the nee face onsite for that day). so i indulge and we talk sports, weather, trucks and equipment and cool tools and sometimes even stock markets but almost every week- multiple times people will comment on real estate– sometime in mid to late Feb, the sentiment started to change with a wide range of people all telling me (unsolicited by the way) that RE is crazy priced and that its going to slow down or crash depending on who i talked too
I was wondering what was it that changed the psychology etc… after thinking about it for a while i figure it must be the run away inflation— the working class crew know what the real numbers are as they live it everyday, inflation is starting to squeeze them and they know that something has to give.
Ron the realtor touched on it and ultimately i think the RE market is going to end up toasted because of it– interest rates are rising fast. Current price support cannot withstand the rise in interest rates.
and if the investment side of the market is anything greater then 15-20% then watch out– the market will take a long time to absorb that kind of inventory organically, if its 40% then even with a massive correction stuff will just sit and sit.
Sail Away on 04.05.22 at 5:51 pm
#22 Ponzius Pilatus on 04.05.22 at 5:08 pm
…
But, in order to do that, they will drastically increase income taxes on plummers.
And install a 50% wealth tax on investments over 1 million.
You’d still be in?
I would.
——–
Of course you would. You are neither the Austrian hero Christopher Plummer, nor do you have investments over $1M.
Socialists love few things more than penalizing others.
=======================
Hey Sailo,
The dementia might be showing a bit with Ponz today but a real kinda factoid is the Austrian Chris Plummer hero is Canadian.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Christopher_Plummer
kinda weird i know but that’s howie roll ’round da real world.
Cheers, R
“Given the number of experts claiming to know precisely when the housing bubble will burst, the old adage
“even a blind squirrel finds a nut once in a while”
is fitting. After all, by sheer chance, some of them are bound to be right.”
Canada exported in Feb 2022 $11B crude, $1B coal, $1.8B Natgas, $1B potash (all to go way higher). Of course this is primarily out of 2 provinces. Cars and their parts? Just $4.5B and this isn’t because of angry truckers, it’s been about this for 3 years, half what it was in 2016. Meanwhile Alberta and Sask’s exports have tripled since JT took office. This is the most unequal, carbon based economic recovery in history. No kidding bank CEOs are begging the Feds for a commission to study, today’s media is completely incapable of a real conversation.
#20 Ponzius Pilatus on 04.05.22 at 5:00 pm
#140 Old boot
If the early Europeans wanted to kill off the Indigenous populations in Canada, residential schools would not have been their first choice of methods. They could simply have denied them rifles, ammo, canned goods, flour, medicines, education, and financial support. The passage of time would have accomplished the rest.
——————————
I think this is worthy a repost and a rebuke.
If Garth allows.
Still can’t get my head around it.
Probably the worst case of victim shaming that I’ve ever come around.
I hope that poster is isolated somewhere, so he can’t harm anyone.
Probably calls himself a Christian.
*********
I’ve just been misgendered by a settler-colonizer. Me, a descendant of the first peoples of Canada, whose two-spirit ancestors roamed the vast wilderness and rugged topography of the Canadian Shield.
Take your woke, paternalistic twaddle and stick it in your strudel.
#62
How does that benefit downtown Vancouver ,or the closeby businesses on Robson or Pender ?
It doesn’t of course ,just hollows out the city and benefits the global elite.
———
Let me buy you a beer one day. You see the issue clearly. It does benefit the global elite and wealthy investors who buy up apartments (don’t even have to be uber wealthy) and it does benefit start-up small companies who sell their services turning on/off the electricity from time to time so that an audit of the empty homes tax brigade (of which their are not many) fail to detect serious anomalies and the tax due on empty homes is not paid.
In my view this is “parasitic investment” that Cynthia and her brigade need to curtail. This is not an endorsement that I like the Liberals, but that it is a real issue that needs to be addressed.
There are vastly more consequential reasons why real estate (like yours) is inflated. The existence of some under-used apartments and houses is not even on the radar in terms of root causes. – Garth
#64 Apocalypse NOW on 04.05.22 at 9:34 pm
=====%%==\!:$$@!:;&\
Sweet dude your world must be awsome!?
68 Russ on 04.05.22 at 9:59 pm
Sail Away on 04.05.22 at 5:51 pm
#22 Ponzius Pilatus on 04.05.22 at 5:08 pm
…
But, in order to do that, they will drastically increase income taxes on plummers.
And install a 50% wealth tax on investments over 1 million.
You’d still be in?
I would.
——–
Of course you would. You are neither the Austrian hero Christopher Plummer, nor do you have investments over $1M.
Socialists love few things more than penalizing others.
=======================
Hey Sailo,
The dementia might be showing a bit with Ponz today but a real kinda factoid is the Austrian Chris Plummer hero is Canadian.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Christopher_Plummer
kinda weird i know but that’s howie roll ’round da real world.
Cheers, R
———————
I gotta take Sailo off the hook here.
This is kinda an inside joke between Sailo, CEF and myself.
Also, sometimes rutabaga and turnips are mentioned.
Will they change the capital gains tax this budget?
Any idea?
Thanks
#42 Doug t on 04.05.22 at 7:48 pm
#40 og
You be trippin dude – trippin to the dark side of the moon
———
Aww- Og’s in love. Cute.
Don’t put too much faith in baby blue eyes, though, because you know who else has them? Hannibal Lecter.
There are vastly more consequential reasons why real estate (like yours) is inflated. The existence of some under-used apartments and houses is not even on the radar in terms of root causes. – Garth
—————
Root causes currently in the past two years are the Central Bank putting interest rates at historic lows, allowing people to chortle themselves with debt. The issue of empty homes in Vancouver and foreign buyers and “investors” was clearly evident from 2015–2019 and the taxes brought in by the NDP and the city were decreasing prices across YVR, and the trend was in the right direction. Since COVID, Trudeau, and the ridiculous policies of the central bank lowering rates to effectively nil, everything has exploded. Now that rates look to be renormalizing, and immigration zooming forward over the next few years, the Gov’t can’t forget the success they had in BC in 2017-2019 in cooling down the market. I am happy if they double-down on their efforts as “normalcy” to interest rates looks more likely. Bring it on.
46 Q
“Canada, however, is the second most overvalued housing market in the developed world.”
—————————————————-
So are people from the developed world lining up to get into Canada? Let’s try a different perspective.
Look at this list of unaffordability for the reality of what many people in the world face
https://www.numbeo.com/property-investment/rankings.jsp
Maybe blogger IDK has a point.
Budget is going to be simple and straightforward .. remove barriers and facilitate first time home ownership while imposing barriers for investors,flippers and multiple home owners..
Help the millennials, screw the capitalists.. a true representation of what the Justin-jagmeet alignment stands for..
Has Canada ended foreign students and immigrants form Russia this year or is it better to offer instant PR for any Russian with an advanced degree education in physics mathematics and aeronautics? Apply the brain drain brain freeze to mother Russia
For kitty lovers
https://www.tvo.org/video/documentaries/running-wild-the-cats-of-cornwall-feature-version
Our politicians have turned Canada into a housing speculators dream of NEVER dropping in prices no matter what creative way they try to manipulate it. Too many factors involved that will keep stocks of houses low while still driving the prices up.
That old house depreciating was replaced by being an investment.
https://www.howestreet.com/2022/04/housing-cheaper-to-rent-than-own-is-a-warning-for-buyers-and-lenders/
Until our infrastructure breaks and we have intermittent electricity, too many factors are in place that just will increase the prices even further.
I have a relative that is moving to North Bay, Ontario in which this has been months and many homes she has tried to buy for a cheaper house with the children.
Well our family bought after years of waiting in the the summer. So prices will definitely be careening downwards now. You’re welcome :)
Nothing has worked to lower the prices of RE by the government because they don’t want to lower the prices.
Prices have doubled in 2.5 years and yet the MP incharge of housing and development in last government was like we don’t want it to drop 10%.
The BC NDP “cool off” period is a joke. Every agent knows why. Contracts are bare agreements that two parties agree to act on within the conditions set down. A buyer and seller in the future will just agree to waive the “NDP clause” in the same way parties today waive inspections, subjects etc. Contracts in Common have an 800 year history of keeping people from killing each other. Only an idiot woke socialist would think that their crap-talk will change our legal obligations, without which, we’d have chaos. That anyone hasn’t seen through this fact is seriously underinformed.
#42 Doug t on 04.05.22 at 7:48 pm
#40 og
#76 Sail Away
:):):):):)
Call it what you want but somethings going down…I’m at the center of the storm right now…keep it comin’….gimmie vibes, peeps!
baby blues, big browns, glowing greens….I gotchu
pheww…I gotchu
Og
Young Canadians probably feel the same way, which is why many are leaving to fight in Ukraine:
https://www.news.com.au/finance/economy/australian-economy/why-would-i-young-people-locked-out-of-housing-market-wouldnt-fight-for-australia/news-story/da1681ba63bb0219b9354911c397be0f
@#64 Apocalypse Wow
“Ukraine’s food production losses alone will doom tens of millions to starvation and death this year, even if they dodge the nukes.”
++++
10’s of millions?
Its been estimated that Russia lost 10 million people in the Second world war… and they kept on coming all the way into Germany.
China starved 10’s of millions in the 1950’s and 60’s in farm collectivization purges.
A nuke war would probably kill billions but I’m pretty sure that grey little toad Putin wouldn’t live to see the first missiles fly.
His own people will deal with him.
@#85 Gripper
“Contracts in Common have an 800 year history of keeping people from killing each other. Only an idiot woke socialist would think that their crap-talk will change our legal obligations, without which, we’d have chaos.
+++
Don’t worry.
The “cooling off” period in BC has just created years of expenzive billable hours for legions of lawyers.
The govt will get its pound of flesh through taxation either through sales or lawsuits.
A win win for govt.
What I want to see from tomorrow’s budget are changes to transparency laws dealing with real estate. Let’s find out and make public who is buying, flipping, and hiding behind shell companies. Let’s remove all the fraud and tax loopholes from the system. Let’s prosecute criminals in a timely fashion, and give the CRA the tools it needs to make sure everyone is following the law.
#44 Flop
43 crowdedelevatorfartz on 04.05.22 at 11:25 am
p.s. No booze since last Oct ( lost 16 lbs) and I don’t touch drugs….
What’s your excuse?
/////////////////////////////
Hey Crowdie, me too, not sure when I stopped but haven’t had a drop this year I know for sure.
———————————————————————————————————
Congratulations boys!
I have some exciting news too.
No booze for me since….Saturday night!
I think I will celebrate this unprecedented abstinence with a few drinks this weekend.
“Punishing people with assets you covet will not make them cheaper. – Garth”
If they’re punished to the point of needing to sell those assets, it will most definitely make them cheaper.
I believe that’s the entire point.
No such evidence exists. – Garth
Have read 2 articles now that rates may go up more than anticipated. May be a couple .5 increases, rather than a single .5 then multiple .25 increases. And with msm starting to discuss prices falling last month, it may simply come to emotions again, and nobody wanting to catch a falling knife by buying now.
Rate reset preferred shares?
Their distributions grow with higher interest rates although on average with a 2.5 year lag (from 0 to 5 years away from reset).
Great for growing cash income from a portfolio.
Their prices however are in no way shape or form guaranteed to rise.
For one they are capped around $27 considering the companies have the option to buy back usually at $25 every 5 years.
For two (and this is more important), as market interest rates rise, it takes a higher cash dividend distribution just to tread water and maintain the price.
But there may be opportunities in certain rate reset preferred shares. And they will beat bonds and perpetual preferred in a rising rate environment. Just don’t expect any bonanza.
Ottawa Market Update:
Detached homes (917K) gained 11.9% from a year ago. They were up about $10,000 on a month to month basis.
Townhomes (726K) were up 16.2% compared to a year ago and gained about $23,000 on a month to month basis.
Condos (479K) gained about 10% compared to a year ago and were up about $12,000 on a month to month basis.
Average days on market was 11 days and active listings remain extremely low as compared to long term trends.
In my opinion mortgage rate increases will be the biggest obstacle that home prices will face in the next 6-12 months.
https://www.kirilpeev.ca/march-2022-ottawa-real-estate-market-stats/
#79 Ponnaps on 04.06.22 at 12:25 am
Budget is going to be simple and straightforward .. remove barriers and facilitate first time home ownership while imposing barriers for investors,flippers and multiple home owners..
Help the millennials, screw the capitalists.. a true representation of what the Justin-jagmeet alignment stands for..
————————-
You got that one right.
Most people would be ok with that.
And Chrystia? What have she and Jag cooked up?
——————————-
Working together right now.
But come elections, the gloves will be off.
And JT will take his walk in the snow.
I feel like a lot of these initiatives to cool down real estate sales will just end up squeezing renters.
If fewer people can buy a house, they will need to rent.
If non-residents are taxed heavily on real estate purchases, they will rent.
etc. We are just “solving” one problem and creating another.
#90 Bezengy
Let’s prosecute criminals in a timely fashion, and give the CRA the tools it needs to make sure everyone is following the law.
——————————–
I think the CRA has plenty of ‘tools’ but little in the way of staff or budget. There’s only a 50% chance they’ll even answer the phone. Adding redundant legislation won’t help much when there’s no resources for effective enforcement.
@#92 Sunshowers.
“If they’re punished to the point of needing to sell those assets, it will most definitely make them cheaper.”
+++
It will be interesting to watch credit card borrowing stats , Lines of Credit, etc in the next 6-12 months in Canada as everything rolls over into higher Cost of Living and interest rates…..
https://www.reuters.com/world/uk/uk-consumer-lending-surges-driven-by-record-credit-card-borrowing-2022-03-29/
#95 Kiril Peev on 04.06.22 at 10:25 am
Nice professional website. Impressive background.
It seems we both love South Korea.
How much would you say based on your background will the real estate in Ottawa correct if rates go to 2.00 – 2.25 % – the absolute top for me in this market cycle?
For me it is a nothingburger but it is good to see a professional realtor opinion.
“” In Toronto, Vancouver, Ottawa and other places local governments are enacting annual ‘vacancy’ taxes on properties politicians think are not occupied enough during a year.”
====================================
If they applied this tax In Markham, they will have a field day.
There are 2 homes that I know of In my neighborhood that have been sitting empty for several months.
So what? – Garth”
====================================
My point Is that there are a lot more homes sitting empty these days, as oppose to say, 20 years ago.
#92 SunShowers on 04.06.22 at 9:28 am
“Punishing people with assets you covet will not make them cheaper. – Garth”
If they’re punished to the point of needing to sell those assets, it will most definitely make them cheaper.
I believe that’s the entire point.
No such evidence exists. – Garth
==============
And the statement makes no sence.
The gov can punnish by taxing and regulating the hell out of them which their working on…then at somepoint no one would want to own them.
Also if we had deflation there wouldnt be all the crazy jealousy talk these days. It would be why buy when its cheaper tommorow?
Inflations your friend or at least mine if you know how to leverage it.
One my renters and friend got divorced and stepped out of the market. Then boom it took off and he cant afford now and I feel his pain. But when i was taking the big plung and risk on another mixed property no one even looked. Now they say brilliant move dude.
Not really its all about cash flow and managing things well no matter what level you are at.
I care not what the market does because the cashflow is always going up and my debts are melted to zero.
Peoples only limit to what they can achive is determind by what they think they deserve. Thats a fact.
I wonder how the canadian geese fair in southern Ontario. It’s blender over there.
With this happening in the states…
https://www.sandiegouniontribune.com/news/california/story/2022-04-06/wind-energy-company-kills-150-eagles-in-us-pleads-guilty
I’m turning down a job offer in Vancouver. I’d love to take it, but it’s not worth it when you take rent into account.
Eye-watering prices to live like a teenager in someone’s basement. Wtf. We only make double the average Canadian household income. That means we can’t afford to live in Vancouver.
Something’s gotta give.
Based on your stat that 40% of working Canadians pay no net federal income tax and the fact that only 40% of Canadians (15MM) are employed (across all age groups), that means that only 25% of Canadians pay any federal income tax!!! Also, as you mentioned, the top 10% of working Canadians are paying for about half of total income tax. So we have 1.5 MM 10 percenters paying taxes for half the population which works out to 19 MM people. Therefore each ten percenter is supporting 12.6 people minus themselves, so 11.6 people. Wow.
…77-year-old Cyndy Jackson is the official gatekeeper for more than 350 companies that operate in the United States and around the world.
CHEYENNE, Wyoming lol
…..” known as registered agents using the internet and gut instinct to size up the owners she represents, but has no formal procedures for examining their backgrounds. The state doesn’t require that, either.
“You just have to kind of go on trust,” said Jackson, an agent for 30 years. “Nobody knows who anybody is anymore.”
https://www.icij.org/investigations/pandora-papers/the-gatekeepers-who-help-open-america-to-oligarchs-and-scammers/
The ‘cowboy cocktail’: How Wyoming became one of the world’s top tax havens
An oligarch, a dictator’s aide and a beverage tycoon turned to America’s least populated state to shelter assets, the Pandora Papers show.
By Will Fitzgibbon and Debbie Cenziper
Image: Salwan Georges/The Washington Post
December 20, 2021
https://www.icij.org/investigations/pandora-papers/the-cowboy-cocktail-how-wyoming-became-one-of-the-worlds-top-tax-havens/
#106 Jack on 04.06.22 at 3:47 pm
Therefore each ten percenter is supporting 12.6 people minus themselves, so 11.6 people. Wow.
——–
And still so under-appreciated. Sigh.