The fools

April Fool’s, here at the Greater Fool blog. A match made in heaven.

Foolish are those who don’t believe in Canada. At least in its foundation in resources or in keeping a goodly hunk of your portfolio in maple. We’re in the best commodity run in decades, with no end in sight. As the whole world gets vaxed more, opens up and expands, commodity values will rise, even as the war in Europe ends.

Canadian stocks have outperformed US ones now by a wide margin, and for the first time in 13 years. Plus there are tax advantages for owning the home-grown stuff. We may have a spendy, left-leading Trudeau-Singh party in power with higher debt and taxes on the way, but – like Covid – this might be temporary.

Foolish are those who think Canadian real estate cannot, or will not, lose value. It’s a certainty as rates rise, family incomes are stretched and we reach a point when the universe of available buyers is so small it is overwhelmed by an increase in listings. This will happen. In many places, it already is. Add in RTO replacing WFH for scads of people and the change will be most apparent in the urban peripheries where the confused, yet horny, Mills fled.

So, foolish are those who buy now at the top of the mountain. Foolish are those who have thought about selling, but balked. These conditions may not come again in your lifetime. Hopefully.

Foolish is anyone who flips their portfolio to cash or GICs because we may have a recession. Of course we’ll go through one. We’re probably past due (the virus plop did not really count). A couple of quarters of negative growth will help blow off excessive asset values and set the stage for another prolonged period of growth. Trying to time that with a sell-buy strategy is pure hubris. Chances are you’ll dump into losses and buy into gains. History has proven investors suffer more by missing the few big days of recovery than they do avoiding the few big days of decline. Ignore the noise. Stay invested.

Foolish are they who watch BNN or have Bloomberg Alerts on their phones and now gnash and foam over an inverted yield curve. So what if the bond market is having a cow? It’s been decades since investors had to scramble to protect themselves from inflation or a big change in monetary policy. Yields will go up. Prices will go down. Do not forget why everybody should have some quality bonds in the portfolio. They saved your butt in March of 2020.

Foolish are the flippers and speckers. Whether they’re equity market cowboys or condo warriors. We’re hearing that for the last couple of years 90% of those buying new, pre-con, high-rise units in major markets like the GTA did so only for assignment purposes. They’ve had no intention of actually closing the deal when the buildings were ready for occupancy years later, but rather of selling the assignment to an end user (or another investor) and pocketing the gain. In fact, many of them can’t close. Never could. They lied when buying.

Consider this snippet from a GTA real estate blog:

Toronto real estate lawyer Mark Morris has raised a red flag over growing numbers of pre-construction buyers who are gambling on the ability to flip their purchase agreements before closing their deals in the current hot real estate market. And, if those buyers are forced to close their deals, they may not be able to actually afford the homes they’ve bought and unable to close their deals.

This is called systemic risk. Foolish is anyone who does not stay far away.

Foolish are the truckers, the anti-vaxers, the conspiracy nuts, the Qanon adhrents, the anti-science zealots, the Great Reset believers and all those trapped in an echo chamber of anger and disassociation. The political system’s broken now, and the more of us lured from the centre to the edges, the harder things will be to repair. This blog may tilt right, but way too many people who come here have fallen off the edge. The nation needs common sense. It’s not a war.

Finally, foolish are those who believe having kids means you need a house and life insurance, that you must be able to change your own oil and plugs to be a man, that animals are possessions or money is more important than time.  Foolish are the young, who think they know everything. Foolish are the old who stop learning.

About the picture: “Long time reader of your blog from Victoria,” writes Isaac.  “I appreciate your honest and unfiltered views of the world and how they pertain to finances. Your simple advice has kept us rational in these irrational times, especially your ability to focus on what is really important in life, like walking the pooch. This is Nova (derived from Nova Scotia, a nod to her Canada Day birth date), our four year old Aussie. She is so full of life and loves her west coast lifestyle. Unfortunately, she’s had quite a few health issues for such a young dog, but her joint surgeries have paid dividends as she’s now back to her favourite activities like chasing her frisbee on the beach! Life is short, and even shorter for our furry companions. Savour every moment.”

108 comments ↓

#1 Polozified on 04.01.22 at 4:18 pm

Developers didn’t care if the people buying units could close on them, because they could just assign it.

Those developers may care soon.

#2 MD on 04.01.22 at 4:20 pm

Stagflation will be the key word for the next two years.

#3 T2 or Bust on 04.01.22 at 4:21 pm

RE: 158 Old Boot

The source link was in the tweet thread. The quote is from this document here –

https://t.co/E16GIhWVYg

Yup, what I have been saying for years and years now.

The total fossil fuels required to be burned, to build one electric car battery, are more than the total fossil fuels burned during the lifetime of an internal combustion engine car using gasoline as fuel.

In many places, the “green” electric car then uses electricity generated by coal or natural gas (or nuclear, which requires even more mining and fossil fuel use to mine the uranium ore used for its power).

The alternative? Ethanol.

Every car built since 1993 has an OBD port, and can be converted to run on ethanol by way of a change to the programming (ie, no hardware changes are necessary, only a change to the software).

Many of these cars are already on the road and converted (they are called “flex fuel” vehicles, identified by the flex fuel label on the back of them).

To “go green” all we would need to do, is require everyone to power their car using ethanol, and get their cars “reprogrammed” to run on it.

Instead, the electric car industry wants to rebuild our electricity generation and transmission systems, turn Planet Earth into a large open pit mine, and greatly increase the total amount of carbon dioxide being put into the atmosphere (all so first world folks can drive around and feel good about virtue signalling).

Green energy is possible, but you have to completely ignore the green energy movement and look for more conventional sources (one of which is Ethanol, made from corn and completely renewable, zero carbon fuel that is easy to produce and can be used to power just about anything – including airplanes, cars, trucks and machinery).

#4 Lumpia on 04.01.22 at 4:22 pm

Garth, after reading your pathetic blog for 10 years and fighting with my momma for a decade that a house is not an investment I think this is it. The housing market correction is finally going to happen.

#5 just a dude on 04.01.22 at 4:24 pm

Damn! On fire today Mr. Turner.

Great post. Your very last sentence resonated most with me. Thank you.

#6 Brett in Calgary on 04.01.22 at 4:24 pm

Foolish are those who paint themselves into a corner.

#7 TurnerNation on 04.01.22 at 4:26 pm

Well guys this all will be running until at least 2024/2025 — our government has signed these contracts with the big global corps. Governments exist only to enslave us, fulfill the will of the global corporation, and sell us on all of this (mind control).

Hey an election is coming, in Ontariowe. You don’t say:

.Ontario has ‘eliminated all our defences’ against COVID subvariant: epidemiologist (ctvnews.ca)

.’There’s never been a downtick:’ Nurses brace for 6th wave of COVID-19 in Ontario (toronto.citynews.ca)

— Case in point. A Marketing/consulting firm was hired, not a medical firm.

.France’s Macron Under Fire for Hiring McKinsey for Covid Vaccine Rollout (Wall Street Journal, 3/31/22) (wsj.com)


— But The Science is different down south!

.U.S. Covid hospitalizations hit new low, falling 32 percent in the last two weeks
https://www.nbcnews.com/data-graphics/covid-19-hospitalizations-country-hit-new-low-march-31-rcna22441

#8 T-Man on 04.01.22 at 4:26 pm

Wiser words have not been spoken by our beloved M.S.M. in decades. Thank you for your honesty, Mr. Turner.

#9 Søren Angst on 04.01.22 at 4:28 pm

“inverted yield curve. So what if the bond market is having a cow?”

It inverted again today Garth.

Maybe something happens in the next 2 years? Who knows?

For now jobs going unfilled, +GDP, supply chains scrambling to fulfill orders, etc.

Staying vested.

Today miracle recovery of Mr. Market in the last hour.

Expect the unexpected.

——————–

#35 Down more on 03.11.22 at 4:17 pm predicted S&P would drop to 3800 on Apr 1st.

4,545.86
+0.34%
+15.45 pts

NOT an April Fools Joke.

#10 Old Boot on 04.01.22 at 4:28 pm

#158 Old Boot on 04.01.22 at 3:21 pm

#156 Shawn on 04.01.22 at 3:02 pm

Tesla Batteries?

“A single Tesla battery weighing 1,000 pounds requires extracting and processing some 500,000 pounds of materials. At this rate, over the next thirty years we will need to mine more mineral ores than humans have extracted over the last 70,000 years.”

****************************
Seriously, is anyone supposed to believe this?

Are there statistics available documenting no only the pounds of sought after ores, but also the pounds of “spoils”.

Anyhow, my Tesla Model Y remains on order – electrical install next week.

***********

The source link was in the tweet thread, but as you demand spoon-feeding …

https://t.co/E16GIhWVYg

#11 Quintilian on 04.01.22 at 4:29 pm

“Foolish are the young, who think they know everything. Foolish are the old who stop learning.”

Well Garth is staying within the parameters, and is 50% correct.
I agree the old are foolish.

#12 T-Man on 04.01.22 at 4:30 pm

Foolish are those, who believe everything C.N.N. and C.B.C. tell them.

#13 Lumber on 04.01.22 at 4:34 pm

I’m a Liberal, and I have read your column religiously since 2010-ish because I enjoy your good solid advice. Being a Liberal used to mean being in the middle – providing a safety net for those who need it, while encouraging investment and private enterprise. While that goal-post may have moved, I am simply not enticed by anything the conservatives have to say. We’re not rich my any means and we pay very high income taxes. But I don’t mind because as a country we’ve been through a hell-of-a-time and even in hindsight I doubt any other leader could have done better with the information everyone had at the time. If conservatives would demonstrate anything other than accusations or crazy, I might be tempted to listen…

#14 Prince Polo on 04.01.22 at 4:35 pm

Thought you would have started with an April Fool’s Day setup; e.g. Our dear Photo-op Minister decrees renting as illegal and therefore, all must have mortgages!!

#15 Ry Cooder's favorite son on 04.01.22 at 4:35 pm

Garth – you were preaching to the choir until you got to changing oil and plugs.

I also adjust my valves…

#16 Captain Uppa on 04.01.22 at 4:39 pm

“ Foolish are the young, who think they know everything. Foolish are the old who stop learning.”

I am curious to know what might be something you learned that you did not expect, Garth?

#17 Michael Suppa on 04.01.22 at 4:40 pm

Garth,
It’s so refreshing to read posts like this. Keeps me sane when the noise gets turned up.
Thanks for the candid, non-sensationalist lecture once again.
Michael

#18 Russ on 04.01.22 at 4:41 pm

Hi Garth,

Thanks for not discriminating today.
I reviewed the list, starting at the top, and it looks like you made a fool out of everyone.

Your mention of insurance reminded me you offered to do a post about the subject some time ago. It will be appreciated.

Cheers, R

#19 cto on 04.01.22 at 4:43 pm

Foolish are the central bankers who drop rates to 0 and leave them there….or are they really fools………….
i wonder…Is there any way to publicly check if any high profile figures are selling their assets these days

#20 Bdwy on 04.01.22 at 4:45 pm

Garth can’t change spark plugs!

Otherwise 100% spot on.

#21 Bdwy on 04.01.22 at 4:48 pm

Just dont overtighten. Usually 1/4 to 1/8 turn after finger tight . You’re welcome

#22 Søren Angst on 04.01.22 at 4:50 pm

Ukraine beating back the Russians from Kyiv.

Different sources reporting they are in full retreat.

Ukrainians elated.
https://twitter.com/IAPonomarenko/status/1509879636989251584

Maps.
https://twitter.com/mhmck/status/1509861844432961536
https://twitter.com/IAPonomarenko/status/1509886397934710784
https://twitter.com/IAPonomarenko/status/1509840748824481797

Ukrainians getting cocky. Offering equipment bounty to Russian soldiers.
https://twitter.com/ukraine_world/status/1509946592618500100

Ukraine making Russia pay in retreat from Kyiv.
https://twitter.com/ArmedForcesUkr/status/1509944090095407108

Russia gets Sex Sanctioned.
https://twitter.com/GazetaRu/status/1509971119075381258

And of course, your requisite Ukraine Farmer Memes. I liked the Tractor in Training one best.
https://twitter.com/vcdgf555/status/1505286565655826433
https://twitter.com/DarthPutinKGB/status/1509889319405826074

Putin may have THYROID Cancer…other sources, this one Russian.
https://twitter.com/SobolLubov/status/1509910093680332803

——————–

BEST April Fools joke to me:

Toronto Sun @TheTorontoSun

BREAKING: Trudeau reverses course, drops carbon tax as of today!
https://twitter.com/TheTorontoSun/status/1509855959451152385

Good to read Trauma hasn’t lost its sense of humour.

#23 Old Boot on 04.01.22 at 4:51 pm

#3 T2 or Bust on 04.01.22 at 4:21 pm

…….Green energy is possible, but you have to completely ignore the green energy movement and look for more conventional sources (one of which is Ethanol, made from corn and completely renewable, zero carbon fuel that is easy to produce and can be used to power just about anything – including airplanes, cars, trucks and machinery).

*************

It’s not just battery manufacturing but also the life cycle of green tech such as solar panels and wind turbines, both of which require significant carbon production to manufacture, but neither of which are especially recyclable at end of life. Plus, the energy storage and density draw-backs associated with them.

Unfortunately, we’re being sold a consumerist solution to a problem caused by consumption. Buying electric personal toys won’t save us. Buying crap has brought us to the brink of….needing to buy different crap? Mental. And our government thinks that taxing the consumption of new toys will cover the revenue lost from the collapse of manufacturing and oil/gas?

I don’t know anything about the viability of ethanol but it’s main detractor seems to be the questionable use of arable land not for food (good), but for fuel (bad).

If climate change is expanding the range of arable lands in Canada, wouldn’t it be fortuitous if we could use our vast, empty expanses to produce a clean fuel precursor?

#24 Ballingsford on 04.01.22 at 4:52 pm

….They’ve had no intention of actually closing the deal when the buildings were ready for occupancy years later, but rather of selling the assignment to an end user (or another investor) and pocketing the gain. In fact, many of them can’t close. Never could. They lied when buying.

*****

How can they lie when getting financing to purchase? The bank knows whether or not you have the money to go through with it. Or, am I naive?

I should have gotten on that gravy train if I knew how.

#25 Millennial 1%er on 04.01.22 at 4:55 pm

Before I finish reading this post, I just want to say that I 40k bonus and I’ve been listening to DJ khaled’s 2017 hit “Major Bag Alert” on repeat

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sAJ_n8iVn6E

#26 Dogman01 on 04.01.22 at 4:58 pm

#74 Brian on 03.31.22 at 8:13 pm
How wild-eyed is Trudeau’s Climate plan?
To power the electric vehicles he would force us to buy, we’d need 100 massive new nuclear reactors built.
We’re not building any.
Or 110 massive new hydro dams.
We’re building 1 or 2.
Trudeau is hopeless on climate issues.

————————————-

“We know they are lying, they know they are lying, they know we know they are lying, we know they know we know they are lying, but they are still lying.” – Aleksandr Solzhenitsyn

Ponder this:
– Perhaps they are spewing this nonsense as the green vote masses are a” fad and fashion” crowd of low information voters.

But I think more credible:

– Perhaps the Green Agenda is simply a vehicle to lower the West’s standard of living to a more equitable “World Standard of living”. The entire world cannot live at the standard of living the West has enjoyed. Therefore our Globalist ruling class has come up with a strategy’ “Climate Change” that they can leverage to slowly lower the West’s general standard of living without a mass revolt of their population. Shrink the Standard of living in the West, (or at least halt the increase) and via globalism and time allow the rest of the world’s standard of living to catch up.

For our ruling class there is no downside, they retain wealth and privilege perhaps have to pay some carbon offsets when they fly in their private jets.

Have a look at Canada’s poster boy of Global Elite Green agenda, his perspective is not to limit Oil and Gas production but to limit Oil and Gas production in Canada as apparently we are already rich enough. https://youtu.be/SPY_SxyNB5M

Hans Rosling does a great talk describing population and standard of living.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fTznEIZRkLg

Things make more sense viewed though this lens, it explains why our ruling class is constructively destroying the Canadian middle class (And those working hard to join it™)

If you are a benevolent force for global “Peoplekind” it may be the only way forward when we have 8-10 Billion population.

As GenX I am fortunate as many of us were able to prosper before this ideology took hold.

#27 zxcvbnm on 04.01.22 at 5:04 pm

This blog leans right? That actually scares me.

#28 Ponzius Pilatus on 04.01.22 at 5:08 pm

#142 The Dr. Is in.
Also interesting was the income for renters. Way lower
than average, indicating that many rent because it’s all they can afford. “They’re renters for a reason” as my LL buddy puts it.
———————-
Typical North American attitude towards renters.
Over 70% of Viennese are renting.
Many in public housing.
And yet, Vienna is always at the top of Most Livable Cities.
If I’d still live in Austria, I’d still be renting.
No shame in it.
CEF is a proud renter, and it’s a smart choice.

#29 alexinvestor on 04.01.22 at 5:11 pm

If you’re absolutely sure yields will go up, cash isn’t a bad place to wait until those yields go up, and then buy fixed. The Trudeau-Singh government has gone after REITS already, who’s to say that they wouldn’t go after preferreds next ?

#30 Ponzius Pilatus on 04.01.22 at 5:12 pm

Re: Sunburn, Ozone and Climate change.
No matter where you stand.
Plant some trees.
What are you afraid of?
The trees falling on your car or roof?
300 years from now!

#31 Stoph on 04.01.22 at 5:12 pm

A very pertinent blog post Garth! Thanks!

#32 PeterD on 04.01.22 at 5:15 pm

From your friend on the left, hear hear!

#33 Linda on 04.01.22 at 5:22 pm

For a pup with health issues, ‘Nova’ looks the picture of health:)

I’m happy to report I was incorrect about gas retailers keeping the gas tax rather than passing it along to the consumer. Today was day 1 of the gas tax relief. Most of the photos of the gas signs showed that prices did indeed drop from $1.67.9 per liter for regular gas to $1.56.9 in Alberta. But that was only an $0.11 cent price drop. Enter the increase in the carbon tax which coincidentally took effect today. That was over $0.02 cents per liter in extra tax graft for federal coffers. In addition to the price drop I did read one comment from an industry spokesperson, who mentioned that suppliers will switch from winter gas prices to summer gas prices. Interesting to note said spokesperson stated that summer gas prices increase by – wait for it – $0.10 cents per liter. So while gas prices have officially dropped at the moment do not expect those lower prices to last very long. Funny how that summer price just happens to add back the rest of the price drop to the price per liter of gas. How very convenient!

#34 RichardTO on 04.01.22 at 5:23 pm

Oh God, he’s still going on about the vaxx…

#35 Warren-the-lagging_indicator on 04.01.22 at 5:26 pm

Foolish are those who are too busy contemplating their navels and fail to recognize the fractal nature of reality. Oh yeah, and the ones who do not read this glorious blog, of course.

#36 Rue on 04.01.22 at 5:27 pm

Long time reader. First time commenter. Thank you for being a voice of reason.

#37 Matt on 04.01.22 at 5:28 pm

This post reads like a proverb. I made sure to read it in my best preacher voice.

#38 espressobob on 04.01.22 at 5:34 pm

The problem with a commodity boom is when it’s out of favour. Usually other sectors become more profitable and they are in vogue.

Global passive index investing irons out the timing.

#39 Daveyboy on 04.01.22 at 5:36 pm

I am 38 years old now, and I have been reading your blog for seven years. Going to keep this one in the memory bank, there was some fire today! Thanks Garth, for all your knowledge and experience. I am miles ahead now because of it.

#40 Caffeine Monkey on 04.01.22 at 5:36 pm

#3 T2 or Bust
—————-
That report is simply wrong, and the carbon footprint of corn ethanol is higher than that of gasoline. I don’t know who that fossil fuel bro who wrote it is, and the research to the contrary is numerous. The most straightforward debunking is to reference the latest IPCC report, which is signed by thousands of scientists, and argues for the electrification of transportation.

#41 RichardTO on 04.01.22 at 5:37 pm

Forgot my vomit ASCII in response to the the vaxx talk:

BBEEEUUUUUUAAAAAHHHHH…

%%%%%%
%%%% = =
%%C >
_)’ _( .’ ,
__/ |_/\ ” *. o
/` \_\ \/ %`= ‘_ .
/ ) \/| .^’,*. ,
/’ /- o/ – ” % ‘_
/\_/ < = , ^ ~ .
)_o|—-'| .` '
___// (_ – (\
///-( \' \\ b'ger

#42 crowdedelevatorfartz on 04.01.22 at 5:46 pm

@#28 Ponzie’s Praise
“CEF is a proud renter, and it’s a smart choice.”

+++
Once a year Ponzie is nice to me.
On April Fools Day
:0

#43 Swanson on 04.01.22 at 5:51 pm

Thanks for the great post.

If this blog tilts right, it’s my kind of right, although I’m not sure it’s being offered on the ballot these days.

#44 HUNGRY BEAR on 04.01.22 at 5:56 pm

The US Dollar and the US economy will lead the world for decades and centuries to come.

Buy and Hold US dollars for it will never lose it’s value..

HAPPY APRIL FOOLS DAY!!!

#45 Observer on 04.01.22 at 6:08 pm

#12 T-Man on 04.01.22 at 4:30 pm
Foolish are those, who believe everything C.N.N. and C.B.C. tell them.

^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^

Ditto those who refuse to believe anything CNN and CBC tell them.

#46 Scooby Snacks on 04.01.22 at 6:10 pm

Very poetic post today, I especially liked the last couple sentences.
You’re a gifted writer Mr. T…..ain’t no fool.

#47 Sail Away on 04.01.22 at 6:11 pm

I change my own sparkplugs and fluids because, when correlated to my 25-year engineering company president chargeout rate of $250/hr, it is still more economical for me to do than having it done in a garage.

And it’s satisfying, of course.

Only rarely would I pay someone $1300 to do something that I can do equally well in 4 hours. Heck, most days I do 4 hours of work before breakfast.

#48 cuke and tomato picker on 04.01.22 at 6:16 pm

You are 100 per cent correct we must start to tilt to the right because we get enough socialism in Canada without
voting for it.

#49 Shirl Clarts on 04.01.22 at 6:17 pm

I absolutely change my own oil. Why not control something you can control. Don’t trust your dealership. They’re probably putting in the cheap bulk stuff when you’re paying for Synthetic.

Buy quality full synthetic at CT when it goes half price. Just use a cheap filter if you do normal driving.

You save about $50-$70 per change, plus peace of mind that it was done right. (the correct oil and amount, plug and filter not over-tightened).

See what I mean? – Garth

#50 Observer on 04.01.22 at 6:19 pm

#43 Swanson on 04.01.22 at 5:51 pm
Thanks for the great post.

If this blog tilts right, it’s my kind of right, although I’m not sure it’s being offered on the ballot these days.

^^^^^^^^^^^
Sadly, these days the Liberal party is the closest to that kind of right.

#51 T-Man on 04.01.22 at 6:44 pm

” Where justice is denied, where poverty is enforced, where ignorance prevails, and where any one class is made to feel that society is an organized conspiracy to oppress, rob and degrade them, neither persons nor property will be safe.” – Frederick Douglass

#52 leebow on 04.01.22 at 6:45 pm

#22 Søren Angst

I see you are interested in the subject. Here is a video from 2000, a Russian political comedy program that was closed after this episode was aired. In fact, the whole TV company was promptly bankrupted and bought out by Putin’s buddies.

The video has a rustic look even for 2000, but has English subtitles – just click CC in Youtube. The episode is truly prophetic, only 22 years too early.

In it, Putin’s character is Little Zaches of Hoffman. In his early presidency Putin looked really good compared to his predecessor. A little help from TV and people applauded him despite all the stupid and insulting demagoguery he was spewing.

You surely will be delighted to see the climax where Putin appears to sing “E lucevan le stelle”. As Yavlinsky pulls the three magic hairs from his head, the magic is gone. Suddenly everybody realizes how bad his singing is.

Compare to Trump.

#53 leebow on 04.01.22 at 6:46 pm

Forgot the link
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eZJx9bgwdv0

#54 Ed on 04.01.22 at 6:48 pm

I gotta agree….the political system must be broken…there’s no way even Easterners could have voted in our present government.

#55 Analyst on 04.01.22 at 6:53 pm

There is a division of priorities based on age.

Young people don’t care about catching COVID that they’ve been vaccinated against. They care that they’re being kept poor, homeless & indebted with Student Loans and the government enriching the wealthy at their expense.

Old people don’t care as much about housing prices because they bought a house for 3 cents in 1970 that’s now “worth” a million.

Inflation hurts the elderly “have nots” the worst. If you are old and have assets, you are doing great. If you are old and on OAS, then it’s over for your life.

#56 Old Boot on 04.01.22 at 7:06 pm

#40 Caffeine Monkey on 04.01.22 at 5:36 pm

#3 T2 or Bust
—————-
That report is simply wrong, and the carbon footprint of corn ethanol is higher than that of gasoline. I don’t know who that fossil fuel bro who wrote it is, and the research to the contrary is numerous. The most straightforward debunking is to reference the latest IPCC report, which is signed by thousands of scientists, and argues for the electrification of transportation.

*************

Much of the ethanol carbon footprint can be mitigated, apparently.

https://www.vox.com/2016/2/22/11075200/ethanol-carbon-footprint

The fact remains, we simply don’t have the capacity to power the number of electric cars that are proposed, nor are there any plans for building the necessary infrastructure to enable it. Unless all the new electric cars are fully autonomous and are shared, not owned. Which the government would be reluctant to say out loud.

Would be too funny if your Tesla received a software update one day that turned it into an Uber, with the owner as host/hostage. Forced to pick up 4 other worker drones, identified by proximity and destination, on your way to work. Then it would spend your work day delivering parcels and running errands, then pick you and the other 4 worker drones up at 5:00 pm.

Autonomous cars aren’t really autonomous, are they? Someone writes and authorizes the code that governs the car’s operating parameters.
Someone is in charge of it, but it ain’t the owner.

#57 Ponzius Pilatus on 04.01.22 at 7:09 pm

#42 crowdedelevatorfartz on 04.01.22 at 5:46 pm
@#28 Ponzie’s Praise
“CEF is a proud renter, and it’s a smart choice.”

+++
Once a year Ponzie is nice to me.
On April Fools Day
:0
————–
Not nice.
Just the facts.
“The renters paying the Landlords’s mortgage” is baloney.
As long as renters invest the differential with a professional like Garth, they always will come out ahead in the the long run.
Says an owner, who’s not looking forward to cutting grass again.

#58 Quintilian on 04.01.22 at 7:10 pm

#48 cuke and tomato picker on 04.01.22 at 6:16 pm
‘You are 100 per cent correct we must start to tilt to the right because we get enough socialism in Canada without
voting for it.’

Perfect example of subjectivity and disregarding the facts.

I think it would be terrible to tilt right.
Look around the world and see what the modern-day Attila the Huns are doing.

Don’t forget that once the right get in, they never do the “right” thing if it’s not right for their exclusive club.

#59 ritenote on 04.01.22 at 7:13 pm

A question about the psychology around real estate…here in the GTA the seller seems to believe with every part of their being that real estate does not, cannot, ever, ever, ever depreciate in value. If they don’t get their bidding war, they relist higher, if they don’t sell in a few days, a week at most, they pull their “asset” off the market and wait until the next crop of greater fools happens along… So the big question…how long will it take for reality to take hold? At this point, there are very few properties for sale…because the sellers’ expectations are not being met…feels like a standoff…

#60 VladTor on 04.01.22 at 7:15 pm

Garth,

Today is a very emotional and fair post.

In addition to your message, there is some interesting news.

I watched on YouTube an interview with Mr. Adams today. He is deputy chairman of the Budget committee at Chrystia Freeland government. It was hard for me to understand his position – he was introduced quickly, and I don’t really take Canadian government job titles by ear, and there was no podcast to reread, you can probably guess who it might be.

He said that in order to cover the budget deficit caused by the pandemic, government was decided to double properties tax in all provinces for a period of 2 years starting from July 1.

Some categories will be exempt from doubling. These are owners of homes with 10 or more tenants – to prevent an increase in rent. These are families living in a house with 3 or more children and of course ingenious people .

More details will be released on Monday. He said Canadians would be sympathetic and understanding about this decision to this temporary measure.

#61 Ponzius Pilatus on 04.01.22 at 7:16 pm

The weird war in Ukraine is getting weirder.
Is the hunted becoming the hunter?
Zelensky better be careful.
Stay out of Russia.
Don’t give Putin a reason.
Interesting. Just as interest in the conflict is waning.
“The Slap” comes along.
CNN and FoxNews thank the Academy and the 2 great actors.
Ah, can’t be fake, can it.
Must be the cynic in me.

#62 yvr_lurker on 04.01.22 at 7:16 pm

With the sweeping landscape that Garth paints on how one can be foolish, I think that 90% of us would fit that label for at least one reason. For me, I am a little too conservative with $$$ and too frugal. Has to do with growing up like Ruth and Wyatt on the Ozark netflix series. Am too cheap to pay a shrink pro to delve into that mess…lol..

#63 Dr V on 04.01.22 at 7:17 pm

28 Ponzies Pink ePidermis.

“Typical North American attitude towards renters.”
———————————————

What I also recall from Statscan, is that our 3 largest cities had rentals approaching 50% of the market, so the cheaper hinterlands must have a higher ownership
rate.

I cant recall if they broke down the renters by age group.

I recall bloggers posting about their rentals – bragging actually. How they were renting 4000 sq ft homes for 1/2 the mortgage payment. I always thought the advantage of renting was to lower costs and clutter, so as to remain with options for employment etc.

#64 Sail Away on 04.01.22 at 7:18 pm

#30 Ponzius Pilatus on 04.01.22 at 5:12 pm

Re: Sunburn, Ozone and Climate change.
No matter where you stand.
Plant some trees.

———

Yes! Wise are those who plant trees.

Among other benefits, they provide shade when changing spark plugs in your driveway.

#65 toronto1 on 04.01.22 at 7:29 pm

I pity the fool — classic

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DJnKm6ftPu0

#66 Reality is stark on 04.01.22 at 7:29 pm

My bias is to be an economic determinist.
However I am not naive to the changing social construct.
It appears that Ukrainian men have decided to fight and are unlikely to give up one inch of Ukrainian territory. Zalensky will need to support the will of these men and peace with Russia is off the table no matter what the President may want.
Ukrainian women will soon realize that their previous lives are over and they will need to start again. Many will choose a life in the west.
In Germany Muslim men escaped war but eventually brought their wives to Germany. It will be different here as the Ukrainian women will choose to find work and a North American partner. I guarantee that there will be a marked softening in feminist radicalism here.
We are also likely to see a return of desirability for young high income earning professional men rather than an aggressive highly leveraged medium earning man focussed on easy money. A reversion to the mean.
The last 25 years has been a fantasy of sorts in the GTA where the average Joe could be divorced a couple times, cash out of the house and start again a little further out of Dodge and stay above water.
The reality for the next ten years is marriage for the top thirty percent of professional and high earning men and nothing for the rest.
The level of competition amongst young women for that top 30 percent will be off the charts. The best advice I can give is don’t wait until your 30’s.

#67 TurnerNation on 04.01.22 at 7:29 pm

Every year, my Paycheque SHRINKS. How can this be when I am receiving Cola-type raises of 3-5% each year??
Taxation. Add to this the double digit yearly inflation in all areas of life — shelter, rentals, fuel prices; food prices + input costs, insurance, karbon taxes, you name it, and I am LOSING money. Slow slavery.

But we pay high taxes for all the stuff we get! Look at our World Class health system.

https://www.saltwire.com/atlantic-canada/opinion/paul-schneidereit-more-than-80000-now-looking-for-a-family-doctor-in-nova-scotia-100655429/
“More than 80,000 now looking for a family doctor in Nova Scotia Posted: Nov. 8, 2021”

.About 2,500 BC health-care workers lost jobs over refusal to vaccinate (vancouversun.com)


If you think that you will be allowed to walk away with millions in tax free gains from a principle residence. Thing again. Heck by 2030 Id be surprised if private ownership is even permitted. “You will own nothing any be happy”?

#68 Dr V on 04.01.22 at 7:35 pm

Lotsa good stuff here re ownership and mortgages

https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/pub/75-006-x/2019001/article/00012-eng.htm

#69 Flop… on 04.01.22 at 7:52 pm

TurnerNation shot down my dreams of owning a GMC Terrian, by way of saying the transmission goes around the time most of the ones going second or third hand on the market in Vancouver.

Saw one the other day, didn’t think it was as big as in the pictures.

Want two sizes up from a RAV4, and it looked like only one.

I saw a Toyota Highlander today, that looked big enough, but the purple grape colour wasn’t doing it for me.

Maybe I should just get an Escalade, but I don’t have time to do the drug dealer thing on the side, like most of the other owners of them do…

M47BC

#70 T-Man on 04.01.22 at 7:55 pm

#45 – Observer
“We’ll know our disinformation program is complete, when everything the American public believes is false.” – William Casey C.I.A. Director

#71 DON on 04.01.22 at 7:57 pm

Got an April Fools experience from a public health nurse.

My turn to take the kids to get needles for various non covid reasons. We have spent the last week fielding all types of questions. Will it hurt? is of course the main concern, the rest are on behalf of their future lawyers (they have had shots before).

Fast forward to the public health waiting room. The Nurse comes out looks at us all and says ‘you are all scheduled to get two shots today’. The kids immediately looked at me with eyes of betrayal (previous dentist experience) and I immediately thought of my wife and her effective ways. Of course the Nurse had a mask on so I couldn’t detect a smile.

Found out the Nurse has a nephew born on April Fools day, so was used to playing jokes. I informed her that her joke was good as kid 2 was scheduled to get a needle an hour later at a lab. She apologized and I laughed and told her it was the perfect joke/blackdrop and being born on April Fools I am usually aware and hard to get.

Later in the day the bribe movie was empty and spectacular…best day ever. I even had a good time losing the air hockey game.

But this is also Golden:
“Foolish are the young, who think they know everything. Foolish are the old who stop learning.”

#72 Greater Fool Awards! on 04.01.22 at 7:57 pm

Welcome to the first ever:

GREATER FOOL ANNUAL ACADEMY AWARDS!

Submit your nominations for the following categories –

1. Best column by Garth since 2021

2. Worst comment(ing) by a deplorable.

3. Best forecast by Ryan, Doug or Sinan or other suspender snappers.

4. Best pet photo and story

And finally……

5. The Will Smith Slap Award –

Given to the commenter here who most needs to get a life and stay away.

Submit your votes with your comments until tomorrow!!

#73 T-Man on 04.01.22 at 8:20 pm

The sudden switch from dollars/euros to rubles was hard core, Olympic-level go economic judo. Putters enticed the collective West to unleash it’s demented hysteria sanction attack – and turned it against the opponent with a single, swift move – Pepe Escobar.

Not to mention the master coup by the Russian Central Bank, pegging 1 gram of gold to 5,000 rubles. Oh dear…

Coupled with NO Rubles No Gas, what we have here is energy de facto pegged to gold. Oh my…

The Golden Ruble has a nice ring to it, not?

#74 Robert Cover on 04.01.22 at 8:24 pm

“It is foolish that you must be able to change your own oil and plugs to be a man”

It is NOT foolish to act in accordance with who you are and what you believe.

Garth I love you for the way you slide things in that have absolutely nothing to do with finance and everything to do with your soul. Something we should all ponder more about than money.

Finally it is the ultimate foolishness to think money will go with you when the great leveler will arrive….death.

Money is the greatest confidence game ever invented. Sadly, you still have to play.

#75 Phylis on 04.01.22 at 8:24 pm

#56 Old Boot on 04.01.22 at 7:06 pm
#40 Caffeine Monkey on 04.01.22 at 5:36 pm

#3 T2 or Bust
—————-
That report is simply wrong, and the carbon footprint of corn ethanol is higher than that of gasoline. I don’t know who that fossil fuel bro who wrote it is, and the research to the contrary is numerous. The most straightforward debunking is to reference the latest IPCC report, which is signed by thousands of scientists, and argues for the electrification of transportation.

*************

Much of the ethanol carbon footprint can be mitigated, apparently.

https://www.vox.com/2016/2/22/11075200/ethanol-carbon-footprint

The fact remains, we simply don’t have the capacity to power the number of electric cars that are proposed, nor are there any plans for building the necessary infrastructure to enable it. Unless all the new electric cars are fully autonomous and are shared, not owned. Which the government would be reluctant to say out loud.

Would be too funny if your Tesla received a software update one day that turned it into an Uber, with the owner as host/hostage. Forced to pick up 4 other worker drones, identified by proximity and destination, on your way to work. Then it would spend your work day delivering parcels and running errands, then pick you and the other 4 worker drones up at 5:00 pm.

Autonomous cars aren’t really autonomous, are they? Someone writes and authorizes the code that governs the car’s operating parameters.
Someone is in charge of it, but it ain’t the owner.
Xxxxx
Why would anyone buy an autonomous vehicle? To be cool? A germaphobe? Probably. Let Uber and friends buy them. Wads of capital parked at lots and homes 16+ hrs a day. Talkabout environmental waste. Your autonomous car will leave your driveway without you and hack around. These things are going to be big$. Think for the future.

#76 "NUTS!" on 04.01.22 at 8:43 pm

Love today’s post Garth. Money does not replace time.

#77 Sam on 04.01.22 at 8:46 pm

We’ve been calling these real estate sheep fools for a decade now but they’re the ones growing their wealth the fastest and getting rich. Make it make sense.

#78 Patriot man on 04.01.22 at 9:14 pm

Hi Garth. Great post today!
Quick question for you. I am a landlord and I own around 7 rental properties. Currently in BC. Had a meeting with my account last week and he told me that I should be treating damage deposits as another form of income.
Long story short I think he’s telling me to keep rental deposits. Never thought of that idea before. Thoughts?
Ron.K

#79 Barb on 04.01.22 at 9:18 pm

Nova’s a cutie, Isaac, and shares a name with Garth’s pooch! That’s the best MSU ever!

—————————-

The blog post today: golden words!

#80 AK on 04.01.22 at 9:20 pm

“We may have a spendy, left-leading Trudeau-Singh party in power with higher debt and taxes on the way, but – like Covid – this might be temporary.”
====================================

Let’s hope you are right. In previous cycles, where Oil was north of $100.00, the Loonie was north of par.

This time around It’s struggling to get passed $0.80. I believe the reason for that Is the 2 dipsticks that are currently running the country.

#81 Moses71 on 04.01.22 at 9:28 pm

“Finally, foolish are those who believe having kids means you need a house and life insurance,..” I thought according to stats posted here a couple years back that people buy houses for their dogs?
Anyways, dirt is still cheaper here in Calgary vs renting. Moved from Toronto 11yrs ago. I’m over it. Have a couple properties and living the “north” American dream ha

#82 AlMac on 04.01.22 at 10:09 pm

We have 5 family vehicles under my management. The women change the oil and plugs. The men do brakes and timing belts, although one daughter in law is willing to take that on too. B&D portfolios are managed together. Real men and women in our families.

#83 PeterfromCalgary on 04.01.22 at 10:14 pm

Here is a fun website to visit.

“We are dedicated to the study and mitigation of risks that could lead to human extinction or civilisational collapse” https://www.cser.ac.uk/

#84 Satori on 04.01.22 at 10:30 pm

People I know who bought, borrowed to the hilt became rich fast. Sold and bought bigger homes, and then did it again.

Those who mortgage themselves neck deep, just made more and more money. Now it’s going to come down… if I had a penny for every time I thought that would happen, twenty years later AND STILL the people who went deep into debt – won.

Everything I learned in economics was BS.

Then we get to renting, so now money ‘earns rent’ call it investment income. So take all that money and wrap it up in some over priced home and now pay strata, HOA, taxes, repairs… AND loosing investment income. Debt wins again! What a catch 22.

And aside from that, the standard of living from 1950 to present day is horrific. Before one job did it, the kids could go to school or college, food and things were affordable, everyone had money, and entertained… now forget it.

A couple needs three jobs, forget having kids. Don’t even think about summer vacations. They hardly have two nickels to rub together. Living in their parents basement until they are 40 until the folks die. It’s a sad thing. For 100% sad, and now you know why most Canadians don’t procreate. Who can afford it?

#85 When Will They Raise Rates? on 04.01.22 at 10:32 pm

Foolish are the truckers, the anti-vaxers, the conspiracy nuts, the Qanon adhrents, the anti-science zealots, the Great Reset believers and all those trapped in an echo chamber of anger and disassociation. The political system’s broken now, and the more of us lured from the centre to the edges, the harder things will be to repair. This blog may tilt right, but way too many people who come here have fallen off the edge. The nation needs common sense. It’s not a war.

It’s difficult not to be a great reset believer when our PM is a member of their organization, the deputy PM sits on their board of trustees, half of our government’s cabinet are infiltrated, and all of their actions are consistent with the great reset published objectives.

Just saying.

#86 T2 or bust on 04.01.22 at 10:38 pm

RE: #40 Caffeine Monkey:

Signed by thousands of scientists…and not a single engineer.

The argument against ethanol the green energy industry clings to is always “how many forests would have to be cut down so as to make space to grow all that corn!?!”

To which I respond: “who grows corn in a forest?”

Corn is grown on our prairies, which have the distinctive quality of being almost completely free of trees.

The same green energy industry cuts down tens of thousands of hectares of forest each year for biomass, shipping the pellets on diesel powered container vessels, to be burned for fuel.

Their reasoning? “The trees will grow back (so it’s carbon neutral)

Ethanol is carbon neutral. The corn actually does grow back each year, so long as you plant it, and it takes out the same amount of carbon dioxide from the air that was put in during the production and burning for fuel of the ethanol.

The farm equipment used to harvest it can even be run on ethanol.

The one thing ethanol cannot do, is make money for the billionaires who run the green energy industry ( or their billionaire pals in the oil and gas and natural resource extraction industries).

Ethanol would ruin the fortunes of some very powerful people.

Yup those same people who give out the research grant money to all those scientists…..who sign all those reports.

#87 Kc on 04.01.22 at 10:40 pm

“Foolish are the young, who think they know everything. Foolish are the old who stop learning.”

Can’t agree more Garth, well said.

#88 Ponnaps on 04.01.22 at 10:51 pm

Speaking of fools, a lot of people I talk to including those from mortgage sales in the big 5 are unaware of the frequency of BoC rate announcements or when’s the next one…
Many believe .25 is a fixed constant.. the only value the boc can hike by
Are we Foolish or ignorant..dunno which

#89 Bdwy on 04.01.22 at 10:55 pm

86 T2 or bust on 04.01.22 at 10:38 pm

RE: #40 Caffeine Monkey:

Signed by thousands of scientists…and not a single engineer

……..
Some engineers know 10% corn gas is NEVER to be used in small carberurated motors or any motor not used regularly. 0% only.
I explained this here not long ago . Its very unstable.
Just buy xeg or zeo or xom because physics. And misguided cult green politics.
Free money either way.
Is it possible to grow enough corn anyway?

#90 Outrage on 04.01.22 at 11:07 pm

Garth is right on. We will may only see 3 to 5 % increase in prices a year for real estate for the next few years. No more 20 % to 50% price increases for the year. 5 year fixed mortgages will be over 3% for sure. Yes even in Victoria B.C. prices may not rise so much.

#91 T2 or Bust on 04.01.22 at 11:15 pm

RE: #40 Caffeine Monkey:

An industry that plans on strip mining most of the planet (including now pristine and environmentally sensitive parts of Greenland), to get at the minerals it needs to build electric cars……is worried about the environmental impact of growing corn.

https://www.reuters.com/business/mining-firm-backed-by-bezos-gates-begin-greenland-drilling-2022-03-24/

#92 Dr V on 04.01.22 at 11:15 pm

78 patriot

“Had a meeting with my account last week and he told me that I should be treating damage deposits as another form of income.”
————————————————–

I bet your accountant means it should be treated as a
form of income from a tax perspective.

Two things happen to the deposit

1) You give it back (expense it out) or
2) You give only some or none of it back but that is because you had to pay to clean or repair damage which is also an expense.

But my limited experience with renting also tells me the
landlords will always try to find a way to keep it.

#93 Harold Victor on 04.02.22 at 12:08 am

Two points:

1) Trudeau has made it near impossible to invest in Canadas commodity sector , hard rock or energy, so gains will be limited to stock cowboys investments building extraction infrastructure outside Canada. Proof of this is the fact that direct foreign investment is zero.

2) Truckers were/are not anti vax or Q, CBC was forced to retract these lies. International politicians and media soundly thumped Trudeau and his cadre if paid media for the lies and blatant propaganda . Truckers and the general populace outside the GTA seats controlled by welfare and immigration politics ( neither adds to Canadas bottom line) are anti Trudeau .

Other than your personal political bent, what you said today is mostly in line. But , your defense of Trudeau is downright anti Canada. The proof is in the pudding. Arguments in support of this government quickly dissipate when free adults exam the evidence.

I did not defend any politician. Your anti-immigrant comment and statement that media is paid by government are also helpful in dismissing you. – Garth

#94 Joe Lalonde on 04.02.22 at 5:57 am

Our politicians group think and globalization alliances don’t allow differences in diversity in resources or infrastructure available.

Simple question but I’ll probably be banned for it because it’s against our politicians policies.
What is the ratio of trees to population in Canada?
We’d sooner let bugs and diseases devastate vast areas than be allowed to harvest them for our own needs. As forest fires consume the corpses.

#95 under the radar on 04.02.22 at 6:18 am

” They lied when buying.”
Really? Were they under oath?
Builders know the game that’s why they have assignment clauses built into their standard form Agreements. That’s also why if the builder consents , the builder gets an assignment fee. The Builder writes the rules of the game so calling the buyer a liar is a bit much.

#96 Neo on 04.02.22 at 6:44 am

DELETED

#97 I don’t know on 04.02.22 at 7:40 am

0 Outrage on 04.01.22 at 11:07 pm

Most likely correct. Prices will continue to go up, albeit at a slower pace. Location and build will become even more important than it is now.

A lot of people who missed the boat are sitting in (quickly depreciating cash) “hoping” they will profit off of someone else’s misery and snag prime real estate at a 40% discount. A lot are hoping interest rates will do the job for them.

Not going to happen.

If real estate corrects 5-10% (at best) these types will be too scared to jump in and miss the boat. Same thing happened in 2017 when our host correctly called a buying opportunity and was criticized in this very comment section.

Cash is trash, and will become even more so moving forward. You buy real estate the moment you can afford to.

IDK

#98 crowdedelevatorfartz on 04.02.22 at 7:47 am

@#78 RonK.
“Had a meeting with my account last week and he told me that I should be treating damage deposits as another form of income.
Long story short I think he’s telling me to keep rental deposits. Never thought of that idea before. Thoughts?”

+++
Accountant is worried about the looming audit….
:)

#99 Doomsday Prepper on 04.02.22 at 7:50 am

GT, please clarify…
You say it is foolish to go to cash, (HISA), but then you say tHat holding bonds saved portfolios in 2020…
Is holding bonds or bond funds not the same as a HISA? Neither pay us much at all…

No, bonds are not cash and you do not own them to collect interest. – Garth

#100 I don’t know on 04.02.22 at 7:52 am

“Foolish are the truckers, the anti-vaxers, the conspiracy nuts, the Qanon adhrents, the anti-science zealots, the Great Reset believers and all those trapped in an echo chamber of anger and disassociation. The political system’s broken now, and the more of us lured from the centre to the edges, the harder things will be to repair. This blog may tilt right, but way too many people who come here have fallen off the edge. The nation needs common sense. It’s not a war”

Actually it is a war.

Social media is a front in the current misinformation battlefield.

This comment section (like most others) attracts a large portion of these types, who believe the USD will lose reserve status, hyperinflation is coming, and the like. Anyone arguing with facts is discounted as the false profit “knows better”.

Social media echo chambers are deliberate misinformation dispensaries, and unfortunately it shows here, almost every day.

IDK

#101 Fortune500 on 04.02.22 at 8:04 am

This ‘foolish’ thing is silly. Most people buy a home not because it is or isn’t the right time, but because they often have to.

Many have waited a decade or more for real estate to come down. Many have waited years to get in recently, meanwhile kids grow, sick parents need a place to stay, job changes to new cities happen, and rent climbs and climbs. Renovictions disrupt lives and shelter remains for many a necessary evil.

Yes for those who are speculating and buying without a buffer, fine, but let’s give some grace to the many many Millennials and other younger home buyers who have had to make a life here over this crazy real estate run-up.

Not everyone had the option to live with family or the life circumstances/location to rent.

#102 T2 or bust on 04.02.22 at 9:40 am

Re: green electric car arguments: there is also some very interesting research going on right now as to small carbon capture devices that could be installed on an internal combustion engine’s exhaust system and work with the vehicle’s central computer to remove carbon dioxide from the exhaust on a real time basis.

This technology will likely become mainstream in the next five years (and will probably be required equipment on all new cars by regulation).

Our current Liberal govt’s view of green energy is tunnel vision.

There are many more options available than the “total transition to all electric” that they keep promoting.

It is almost like they just read the WEF website and base their green energy policy on that.

#103 Let's talk in five years on 04.02.22 at 10:32 am

This comment section (like most others) attracts a large portion of these types, who believe the USD will lose reserve status, hyperinflation is coming, and the like. Anyone arguing with facts is discounted as the false profit “knows better”.

Until then silence is golden for people like you..

Better invest in Disney stocks

#104 baloney Sandwitch on 04.02.22 at 10:44 am

Since its April 2 today, I’d like to suggest that there is no bright line separating the foolish from the non-foolish on real estate values. While we are almost certainly in the foolish territory now it was not true in hindsight 5 years ago.

#105 Dharma Bum on 04.02.22 at 11:35 am

Vlad Tor

“Some categories will be exempt from [property tax] doubling….These [include] families living in a house with 3 or more children and of course ingenious people.”
——————————————————————————————–

Ingenious people.

So, I guess not Quintillian.

#106 IHCTD9 on 04.02.22 at 12:03 pm

#3 T2 or Bust on 04.01.22 at 4:21 pm

The alternative? Ethanol.

Every car built since 1993 has an OBD port, and can be converted to run on ethanol by way of a change to the programming (ie, no hardware changes are necessary, only a change to the software).

Many of these cars are already on the road and converted (they are called “flex fuel” vehicles, identified by the flex fuel label on the back of them).
————

Ethanol has a few issues. I was a drag racing nut for a good 30 years. When E85/E100 came along it was super popular due to how much power could be made using it, but the reality right from the street is it cuts your fuel mileage in half. Stoichiometric AFR for E100 is about 9:1 compared to 14.7:1 for gasoline, so you’re burning 1/3rd more fuel right off the bat. Then running ethanol in an engine with the compression ratio set for pump gas lowers the efficiency of combustion on top, so you burn more fuel again for the same power. If you get 20mpg on gas, you’ll get 10 mpg on E100.

Then there are other issues. Ethanol is hygroscopic, and this causes issues with engine performance if enough water is absorbed. Blends north of 15% dries out rubber and attacks zinc and aluminum. Ethanol does not like to ignite in freezing temperatures. Making the stuff is expensive and inefficient. Evaporative emissions from ethanol fuels are high. Burning them still creates several pollutants. An ethanol fire is invisible in daylight. On top of all that is the major issue of hitching a global food staple to the energy economy.

I really like ethanol fuels, but there’s no way I’d do the daily grind with them, especially where humid/freezing temperatures are common (ie. southern Ontario). They’re ideal for bonkers power in an engine employing forced induction, but that’s about it.

#107 I don’t know on 04.02.22 at 12:27 pm

#103 Let’s talk in five years on 04.02.22 at 10

I would wager your moniker should be “let’s talk in 200 years”.

IDK

#108 Millenial Views on 04.02.22 at 9:46 pm

I guess the WEF posting it to their website and numerous world leaders hitting all the talking points must be a conspiracy.

https://www.weforum.org/great-reset
https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2020/06/now-is-the-time-for-a-great-reset/

Cowardly are the people who thought shutting down the world to wait for franken-science to improve a 99.7% survivor rate.

Selfish are the people who expected others to lose their livelihoods, continue as essential workers during an unknown threat of a strange virus all the while the self-centred and cowardly sat in their homes on zoom meetings having virtual happy hour and waiting for an insurance refund cheque because they drove less.

Pitiful are those that worshiped and banged cookware in the streets for the “front-line” workers (truckers, nurses) in 2020 and then supported the issuance of their pink slips, and supported towing their trucks and freezing their bank accounts.

Un-masked social gatherings in summer 2020 were acceptable with the most “deadly strain”, yet in summer and fall 2021 the sheeple adorned the N95 (not even asbestos rated).

Shame on those that support fascist collectivism, coercion, and bullying tactics against those who choose not to take an experimental gene therapy drug.

I hope this Remembrance Day, we recall those who fought these same types of government tyrannies and died for our FREEDOMS. We honour them by remembering that in 2020-2022 the masses so willingly gave away their freewill, demanded freewill be taken from others, let the government decide which businesses close (small retail bad, Walmart good), condemned those who stood strong for their rights, cast dirty looks at them, smeared their character (anti-vaxxer vs. anti-mandate), participated in snitch-lines against our neighbours, coerced and bullied those forced to disclose personal medical data, indignantly supported QR code segregation without knowing the effectiveness of the gene therapy (vaccine) against contagion (https://covid-19.ontario.ca/data), refused to be tolerant to people’s religious views in regards to vaccine development and manufacture involving fetal/uterine lining tissues.

FYI

I do agree with you on many economic points, however it is my opinion that the current fiat system is so heavily indebted that interest rates must stay low, real yields must stay negative forcing currency to move into speculative assets. Bonds offering 2% while 5% inflation is present, seems to me like a 3% loss, capital appreciation of bonds can save your bacon in a downturn, but the sacrifice of not letting the printing press rip in that event means the baby boomers pensions get wrecked….I guess that would be fair since they expected the younger generation to sacrifice during the pandemic and just assumed that they can snow-bird to Florida while the millennials scrounge in the dirt to support them.