The spiral

The myth goes like this: the real estate gasbag’s so big that popping it would collapse the economy, crash stock markets and cripple public finances. So, natch, it ain’t gonna happen. ‘Governments will do everything they can,’ the peons cry, ‘to stop it.’

In reality, real estate accounts for about 9.5% of the nation’s GDP. In contrast, all industry equals 28%. Farming about 2%. Services dominate at over 60%.

More stats: there are 10.5 million households in Canada. About 69% own real estate. Of those, 40% have mortgages. So 2.8 million families have home loans. In other words, 26% of Canadian households carry real estate debt totaling $1.8 trillion. And, yes, many of them might well be in a peck of trouble over the next few years. Tens of thousands – perhaps hundreds of thousands – will go underwater with negative equity, owing more than their depreciated houses are worth. For them it will be hell on wheels. But it won’t collapse the economy. Stock markets will shrug it off as corporations continue to make money and the post-pandemic trade continues. And government revenues will stay static since everyone still has to pony up their taxes. Even the lenders – the banks – will be fine, since most borrowings are insured.

Nah, what policy-makers are really vexed about is inflation. It destroys the value of currency, increases costs without upping revenues, hurts productivity, is socially destructive and distorts investment. This is why you should expect the CB to raise its rate by a half-point in a few days, and to do it repeatedly for the next year.

The busted supply chain is inflationary. Hundred-dollar oil stokes it. The war is making things worse. Covid is still screwing up production. The cost of food, housing and services is making the wealth disparity more acute. Governments have responded with reckless spending increases and even-higher taxes. Yesterday this pathetic blog showed you a few doozies – the actions of men and women who think houses will cost less if it takes more money to buy them. Duh.

Here’s the point. A lot of people are going to be hurt by what happens over the rest of 2022. But not everybody. Not the majority. Not even 10% of us. This is a gathering storm which will whack housing and those who gambled, risked and stretched to get some. Collateral damage will be the timid who failed to pluck their windfall gains. But nobody has sympathy for them.

It’s happening.

In February every listing in an urban market attracted multiple offers and most sold for more than asking, even when the ask was obscene. Now a lot of properties – especially in the burbs and the hick cities – sit with no offers. This, despite the fact we’ve had but one weensy, wee, timorous little quarter-point rate increase by the central bank. The bond market knows what’s coming, though. And that’s caused mortgage rates to double in a few months.

Low rates feed prices. High rates starve them. ‘Twas ever thus. Will be so this time, again.

This is why the impact of rising money costs will be even more dramatic this year. Look what we did to prices…

Source: OECD, Move Smartly, Turner Investments

This week RBC told us what we already knew. Housing affordability is at the worst level in 31 years, and there is no relief in sight. Even with a huge (25%) downpayment, the average family would see almost half (49.7%) of their pre-tax income to cover financing and ownership costs.

Note that is ‘pre-tax’ income. The amount families actually have to spend is far less. And that’s the national number. The GTA is ridiculous. Vancouver (where people earn less) is off the chart. There it takes 74% of pre-tax income to own a property. For a detached home, that rises to 99.7% of household income. Who needs food?

Says RBC economist Robert Hogue:

“Rapid price escalation in the early months of 2022 has already raised the bar to impossible levels for many homebuyers. And with the Bank of Canada now in the process of hiking interest rates materially—we expect a total increase of at least 150 basis points in the coming year—ownership costs look set to spiral even higher. Worst-ever affordability levels could well ensue, putting buyers in a precarious spot.”

Meanwhile remember what BMO economists said a few days ago? As we reported, the bank is warning of a ‘full-scale attack on Canadian home prices,” the result of rising rates and dumbass political moves exacerbating the situation. Like new real estate taxes in Ontario, BC and NS.

So the situation is quite clear. A minority of people are hugely over-leveraged. A quarter of new mortgage-takers in the GTA, for example, has a debt-to-income ratio of 450% or more. Rate increases impact seriously-leveraged homeowners far more now because of extreme debt levels caused by fairytale valuations.

Anticipated Bank of Canada/bond market moves will spike RBC’s unaffordability index, the bank says, to historic and unprecedented levels in a few months. Fewer people will be able to purchase. Many new buyers will experience negative equity. Untold numbers of investors will bail as the potential for capital gains is erased. An entire generation of house-horny people who never in their lives imagined digs could cost less next year than they do now, will have to cope. And learn.

This could be epic. But it will not be ubiquitous.

Will you feel pity?

About the picture: “I am a fan and have been reading your blog for as long as you have been blogging,” writes Sue. “I have attached a photo of beautiful Barry. He’s a world traveller. Born in Melbourne, Australia, currently living in Cambridge, England and will make his way to Canada next year. Please feel free to share his photo in your blog.   He is a poser and would be flattered!”

161 comments ↓

#1 DH on 03.31.22 at 4:01 pm

First in!!

#2 Rook on 03.31.22 at 4:02 pm

I might feel guilty. If I didn’t have a bunch of money saved and invested, waiting for a real price drop so I can vulch and finally ‘buy low, relative to what prices were’ and not ‘buy high, hope the price goes up, and then it looks like I bought low in a few years’ time’.

I wonder, though, if we’ll see a very tiny window of opportunity to buy low, when prices start to go down and everybody jumps in? Or whether housing prices will merely pull back a bit (or just flatten), and stay that way for awhile?

#3 We're toast on 03.31.22 at 4:03 pm

Get ready for the SUV and pick up truck internal combustion tax levy

https://iono.fm/e/1170464

#4 Steven on 03.31.22 at 4:06 pm

Pity? No.

Humans make mistakes.

I blame the CB’s for 90% of this mess, people’s emotions 10%

Houses will drop 25% max and reverse back up once the CB’s have to reverse the interest rate hikes.

Short term pain, long term pain.

#5 Stone on 03.31.22 at 4:11 pm

Will you feel pity?

———

Mr T says it best. Especially what he predicts right at the end of the clip.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DJnKm6ftPu0

#6 Cto on 03.31.22 at 4:13 pm

Why can’t central banks be held accountable for excessive QE and 0 bound interest rates for an obscene amount of time. Even before Covid.
Seems all economists and media blame the inflation on supply chains. But isn’t inflation created by CBs?
Aren’t they personally responsible for all that debt? or am I missing something here…

#7 Stone on 03.31.22 at 4:15 pm

Every day, you can wake up and consider if it’s a good idea to being balanced & diversified. Rain or shine, it matters not. The final conclusion is always the same.

It’s a good day to be balanced & diversified.

#8 Stone on 03.31.22 at 4:19 pm

#4 Steven on 03.31.22 at 4:06 pm
Pity? No.

Humans make mistakes.

I blame the CB’s for 90% of this mess, people’s emotions 10%

Houses will drop 25% max and reverse back up once the CB’s have to reverse the interest rate hikes.

Short term pain, long term pain.

———

No Steven. I blame the fools who can’t seem to do math or want to ignore the implications math demonstrates.

It’s all about personal responsibility.

I guess these same fools (maybe yourself as well) don’t seem to know what that is either.

#9 Søren Angst on 03.31.22 at 4:19 pm

Pity them?

Don’t care.

Each his/her/Bill C-16 own.

Authors of their own destiny.

—————–

Jan GDP +0.2%.

Up better than down. 9/20 Sectors up.

https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/daily-quotidien/220331/dq220331a-eng.htm?HPA=1

Feb looking like 0.8% per StatCan.

#10 pPrasseur on 03.31.22 at 4:20 pm

The myth goes like this: the real estate gasbag’s so big that popping it would collapse the economy, crash stock markets and cripple public finances. – Garth

Why is this a myth? IMO it is at least a very real possibility. This RE bubble is one of the biggest in the world (behind China), much bigger than the US bubble that popped in 2008 and did crash the entire US economy and wiped US households of at least 40% of their assets. Back then US household debt ratio wasn’t even close to what it is now in this country, also the US government had a lot more margin to react than what our Federal and Provincial governments have today.

A lot more could be said about what the debt/consumption binge did and is still doing to our productivity and the structure of this economy…

Our bubble if (a lot) bigger, conditions are worse, yet Canada would be somehow immune to this sort of crisis? Don’t think so.

Real estate did not cause the US credit crisis. Bankers and brokerage houses did that. No such situation exists here. – Garth

#11 mj on 03.31.22 at 4:20 pm

I feel bad for tax payers. When rates rise, how much will we have to pay to cover our national debt.

#12 TheDood on 03.31.22 at 4:22 pm

#4 Steven on 03.31.22 at 4:06 pm

…..once the CB’s have to reverse the interest rate hikes.
___________________

Rates are going up to stay – I would say for quite some time. The mess we’re in is due to an extended period of low rates.

#13 Søren Angst on 03.31.22 at 4:22 pm

Quelle bloodbath today in the Markets.

Even oil down.

Ah, still have dividends that cover the day.

#14 Jens on 03.31.22 at 4:25 pm

It’s by no means guaranteed that the unaffordability index will go to unprecedented levels in months to come. And in fact, I firmly believe it won’t. If the investors and speculators pull out in droves because they have finally realized it’s time to sell, or to dodge new federal/provincial taxation rules, the resulting flood in inventory may well deflate housing prices to more than compensate for the increased debt servicing cost. Good for anyone who kept their cool and waited before buying in.

#15 TurnerNation on 03.31.22 at 4:26 pm

Things are moving VERY fast in Kanada, and Europe over removal of any Property rights we may have had.
Step 1, the easy targets. The Investor Class and “Foreigners”.
In the cities, SFH will be replaced with ‘densification’, the cutesy term for allowing developers free reign and building towers, razing SFH. Already homeowners are being pressured to give up free bedrooms to the homeless and refugees.

If you have a SFH near a subway station this is the future. Ontariowe’s new development plan rubber stamps it. A dangerous thing, as, if you are paying attention — every system designed to protect us has been turned against us. Rolled globally as WW3 (wars are fought over LAND), kicked off March 2020.

https://www.blogto.com/real-estate-toronto/2022/03/eight-towers-proposed-toronto-subway-station/
“Eight sky-scraping towers proposed to rise next to Toronto subway station”


>> The goal lies in trapping us into crowded fetid UN Smart Cities. Travel will be limited severely, due to Karbon taxes, high gas prices, and limited range of electric cars. One step at a time. We are a test zone.

https://westernstandardonline.com/2022/03/feds-considering-extra-taxes-on-drivers-of-suvs-and-pick-ups/

“The Environment Department says the government should consider extra taxes on the owners of SUVs and pick-up trucks in an effort to cut down on the gas guzzlers and emissions, says Blacklock’s Reporter.
“More needs to be done” to lower auto emissions, said the department following a March 21 report from an advisory panel recommending a four-figure Green Levy on pickup trucks and SUVs.”

#16 cramar on 03.31.22 at 4:26 pm

Pity? No! But sadness that people never seem to learn.

Those who overextended because of house-horney emotions are going to get spanked. Will they even understand why they got into this mess, let alone learn anything? I doubt it.

#17 BC Renovator on 03.31.22 at 4:28 pm

Any thoughts of a repeat of Xmas 2018? Rates Rise until something breaks, then CB’s reverse course? Seems to be a narrative

#18 The Limited Sage on 03.31.22 at 4:28 pm

Zero pity.

#19 Crystal ball futurist on 03.31.22 at 4:29 pm

“Bulls make money, bears make money, Pigs get slaughtered.”

Inflation on the rise = Slaughter house ready
Interest rates start rising = Doors closing

A lot of squealing to begin soon.

#20 Prince Polo on 03.31.22 at 4:33 pm

“A minority of people are hugely overleveraged”

And these will be the same ones that cry the biggest crocodile tears and loudly demand government intervention to save their rumps. You like being a profit pig? Well sir/madam, then you should also like being crispy bacon. My only sympathy comes in the form of an available couch for a night or two.

#21 Linda on 03.31.22 at 4:36 pm

‘Barry’ is a pretty kitty:)

I have to agree that I don’t feel sympathy for those who borrowed beyond their means. Why is it that people apparently can’t learn from the past? The RE meltdown in the USA was back in 2008, so not so far back in time that those who were purchasing now didn’t have it as a grim example of what could go wrong. Why does anyone ever believe it will be ‘different’ this time around?

#22 Søren Angst on 03.31.22 at 4:42 pm

Tough talk Putin, dumber than a sack of hammers about Int’l payments, decrees today:

Gas has to the EU has to be paid in Rubles.

Observes il Sole 24 Ore

“Gazprombank, a bank not subject to sanctions, which already receives most of the payments for Russian gas, will take care of the Russian currency exchange.”

https://www.ilsole24ore.com/art/mosca-kiev-domani-nuovi-colloqui-biden-pensa-sbloccare-180-milioni-barili-petrolio-AErJn9NB

Scholz and Draghi told him in as many words to “get stuffed”. Germany mulls about nationalizing Russian gas firms operating there.

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/germany-mulls-nationalization-gazprom-rosneft-units-handelsblatt-2022-03-31/

Putin is going to make Russia into a 3rd World economy with his actions. I think it will end up in power structure shake up there, maybe even Civil War once the war is over. An economist thinks so to. 15:49 min. Worth the watch.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2F4x2-rVkIk

——————-

What can happen when you play with fire.

#23 OK, Doomer on 03.31.22 at 4:43 pm

#2 Rook on 03.31.22 at 4:02 pm

I wonder, though, if we’ll see a very tiny window of opportunity to buy low, when prices start to go down and everybody jumps in? Or whether housing prices will merely pull back a bit (or just flatten), and stay that way for awhile?

+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

I don’t think so. As interest rates climb and stay high (assuming tat the bond market is correct) people who gorged on cheap rates will learn a sobering lesson:

Debt is forever.

Living through the effects of the interest rate spikes in the early 1980’s I can tell you one thing for sure:

It’s much safer to owe $100,000 at 12.5% than $1 million at 1.25%.

#24 AM in MN on 03.31.22 at 4:46 pm

Also, how can the economy tank on a macro level when every export commodity sold (like oil, wheat, metals, lumber, etc.) is at record prices and all of those industries have big labour shortages?

10% of the people maybe underwater on their mortgage or lose their house, but in a real recession it’s hard to find a decent job, and that isn’t in the cards unless the whole world collapses.

#25 Sail Away on 03.31.22 at 4:50 pm

So nice it is to have full access to US markets while the Canadian tempest in a teapot rages.

Added to existing positions in US total market, Nasdaq, Bank of America and Hewlett Packard today.

#26 Senator Bluto on 03.31.22 at 4:50 pm

Our bubble if (a lot) bigger, conditions are worse, yet Canada would be somehow immune to this sort of crisis? Don’t think so.

Real estate did not cause the US credit crisis. Bankers and brokerage houses did that. No such situation exists here. – Garth

______________________________

I’d rate Garth’s response as true-ish.

Mortgage backed securities were the match that lit the fire, but the kindling, tinder and fuel were the actions of homeowners who thought that real estate would never drop, so they pigged out on houses as investment properties.

Stop me if you’ve heard this before.

The point is clear. Widespread mortgage defaults on their own would not have caused a credit crisis, then recession. It was the reckless securitization of real estate debt which did that. Wall Street laid an egg. – Garth

#27 PeterfromCalgary on 03.31.22 at 4:54 pm

This podcast illustrates how Putin’s war is destroying Russia’s economy.

“Escape from Russia” (Planet Money March 16,2022)

How a US based Russian-American tech CEO got half her employees out of Russia

https://www.npr.org/2022/03/16/1087009893/escape-from-russia

#28 TurnerNation on 03.31.22 at 4:57 pm

Commodity ETF explosion. Our Feeding…a global tool, now.
https://finviz.com/quote.ashx?t=CORN&ty=c&ta=1&p=m&tas=0
https://finviz.com/quote.ashx?t=WEAT&ty=c&ta=1&p=m&tas=0


Best advice for young people in Kanada: Go to University get a degree in Grevience Studies.
Be sure and dye your hair a bright colour (Hey I’m not judging one’s personal style here — if it works go for it) it will at least indicate to the professor that you might be ready to Smash the Patriarchy, Smash Capitalism, and Defund the Police. Top marks.
Then, get a Government Job.
(We don’t know how a dinosaur like Flop got in, the hiring algos must have glitched ;-) )

— Will house pets be declared ‘unsustainable’ in the New System? The Mink cull came first.

.Chinese city orders all indoor pets belonging to COVID-19 patients in one neighborhood to be destroyed (businessinsider.com)

…as the young must never again know normalcy. All about the compliance.

https://thefederalist.com/2022/03/30/as-the-country-returns-to-normal-college-campuses-double-down-on-covid-19-restrictions/
“As The Country Returns To Normal, College Campuses Double Down On Covid-19 Restrictions”

.‘Really alarming’: the rise of smart cameras used to catch maskless students in US schools (theguardian.com)

#29 THE DANDADA on 03.31.22 at 5:04 pm

Who’s worried?

TRUDEAU will save you no matter the circumstance anyway.

#30 Big Bucks on 03.31.22 at 5:05 pm

House prices can certainly settle down and settle down for years.Looking at stats today and a little house at Yonge and Eg was $280,000 in 1995 and sold last summer for $2,300,000.In reality that house could come off 50%(not that it will)and it still would have went up almost 500% in 25 years.If inflation is here to stay for 5 years it is safe to say prices may well indeed drop 50%.

#31 Philco on 03.31.22 at 5:06 pm

I agree no RE wipe out. There’s always peeps with loot and plenty of demand to take out any sellers.
Speaking of money laundering and corruption at all levels.
The powers that be new about the casinos and the pile of loot coming from offshore to RE and others.
A studies says a lot of dough but only pushed RE prices 5% which is a fart in the wind these days.

Govs take down deal to line themselves. I had Chinese friends when I lived in Van 20 years ago and was told personally they were paid by Hong Kong RE buyer coming in and how they avoided taxes. Its been going on a long time.
Am I the only guy that’s paid his fair share? Jesus it pisses me off. No wonder T2 doesn’t listen to his voters. Were tykes.

Anyhow ENJOY. 9 min in.
“Sam Coopers frightening look into Chinese gangs, fentanyl and money laundering in Canada”
https://mikesmoneytalks.ca/march-26th-episode/

#32 Serf on 03.31.22 at 5:07 pm

Did you know that the infamous San Romano way towers have become condos starting at $350,000 plus $700 a month condo fees? It’s bad…

#33 Inflation Man on 03.31.22 at 5:11 pm

Well Garth, it depends how much real estate goes down, a mere 5 -10% decline does nothing for affordability, prices would have to drop at a minimum of 25-30% to make any dent for first time buyers. Most 30 and under residents cannot afford a house in the GTA unless they have rich parents or they are training to become surgeons or law firm partners, where I am in North York, people have 2 million dollar homes while working jobs previously as postal workers or janitors, you could never afford these houses now on those salaries.

#34 DON on 03.31.22 at 5:14 pm

What about the HELOCs? Helocs are sprinkled throughout the longer term home owners. Some went on a ‘you only live once’ shopping spree?
Boomerang!

On another topic, Gasoline prices at one gas station in the lower mainland went down to $1.89 and people started lining up. Is that the new cheaper price…

#35 Flop… on 03.31.22 at 5:14 pm

Donald Trump supposedly got a hole in one playing golf the other day.

I say bull crap.

The only time that guy has seen a hole in one, is when he’s chowing down on a doughnut…

M47BC

#36 Ford voter on 03.31.22 at 5:15 pm

Social assistance rates will be frozen or cut to offset the bailouts for the indebted home-owning middle class.

Expect more homeless people, robberies and a nihilist approach from the poverty class.

#37 CHERRY BLOSSOM on 03.31.22 at 5:16 pm

NO PITY AT ALL. JUST LAUGHING…..

#38 Overheardyou on 03.31.22 at 5:17 pm

Does 450% debt to income ratio mean for example, a household makes $50K annually before taxes and has a mortgage of $225K?

Is there a statistic for total household debt level, including auto loans and credit card debts?

#39 Lumber on 03.31.22 at 5:19 pm

Makes you wonder what sort of liability appraisers will have in this coming dumpster fire?

#40 Cowtown Cowboy on 03.31.22 at 5:21 pm

Wow, some of those servicing numbers are scary…I calculate it takes about 10% of our post tax income to service our mortgage..and even that irks me..there are a lot of people that are going to get creamed…

My only worry is that somehow the idiots in charge will find a way to make it all ours problem.

#41 Arcticfox on 03.31.22 at 5:24 pm

The Austrian folks out there may find this interesting !

https://palisadesradio.ca/lawrence-lepard-we-stand-on-the-gold-launchpad/

#42 I Identify as Cranky on 03.31.22 at 5:32 pm

I had no idea this was a thing until I read it on a real estate agent’s Twitter:

https://twitter.com/stoughlian/status/1509186025859469313?cxt=HHwWgsCytbms2vEpAAAA

Apparently it has been a fairly common “technique” over last few years.

Yikes.

#43 Quintilian on 03.31.22 at 5:43 pm

Tick Tock, Tick Tock

#44 Reality Check on 03.31.22 at 5:43 pm

CTO
Why can’t central banks be held accountable for excessive QE and 0 bound interest rates for an obscene amount of time…….Aren’t they personally responsible for all that debt? or am I missing something here.
———————
They are not responsible as individuals, they are a creature of government.

Anyways, they are just largely doing what the politicians and public want, which is unending “happy times economic growth”. We are too feeble to be able to weather a wee recession.

So we get year after year of “easy” monetary policy that keeps the party going. Eventually we will have to pay the piper and it will likely end up being much worse than if CB had raised rates and cooled the economy years ago.

But remember that politics and the public never want a “cooler” economy so CBs are just doing what we want.

#45 Sail Away on 03.31.22 at 5:44 pm

Young families with demanding jobs and little kids will be hurt most by the debt binge. These are the people who really need good financial advice, but rarely receive it, and instead take on massive debt just to buy crazily-overpriced houses. Often on advice from family.

The young and productive are the lifeblood of the country and now so many will be under the thumb of crushing debt, which will be productive to the country’s economy with all earnings placed right back into circulation, but painful for their futures.

Unfortunate… but, as usual, the extended Sail Away clan will most likely profit from it, both inadvertently and deliberately. Not our fault. As Declan says in ‘Bad Blood’:

“You didn’t ask. If you had asked, we would have told you not to do that.”

#46 T-Man on 03.31.22 at 5:45 pm

DELETED

#47 Not First on 03.31.22 at 5:55 pm

So according to the chart, since 1990 house prices in Italy and Japan have gone down.
Is this correct?

Do you understand what an index is? – Garth

#48 DON on 03.31.22 at 5:56 pm

#23 OK, Doomer on 03.31.22 at 4:43 pm
#2 Rook on 03.31.22 at 4:02 pm

I wonder, though, if we’ll see a very tiny window of opportunity to buy low, when prices start to go down and everybody jumps in? Or whether housing prices will merely pull back a bit (or just flatten), and stay that way for awhile?

+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

I don’t think so. As interest rates climb and stay high (assuming tat the bond market is correct) people who gorged on cheap rates will learn a sobering lesson:

Debt is forever.

Living through the effects of the interest rate spikes in the early 1980’s I can tell you one thing for sure:

It’s much safer to owe $100,000 at 12.5% than $1 million at 1.25%.

*******
To add on:

Rook you need to factor in the affects of inflation and and a possible recession with folks loosing jobs.

And I take it…it is hard for many to imagine a day when house buying is no longer in vogue as people are inudated with real estate horror stories plastered all over the media. There is no quick hangover pill to fix things quickly ‘when the worm turns’.

In addition, will the same conditions exist that led us to this point in time. We are witnessing change in what seems to be a new hostile multi polar world order. Where cheap stuff is no longer made in China etc. Shift happens and times change. Globalization may no longer be in vogue to the same extent in the past 30 years.

#49 Lisa Simpson on 03.31.22 at 6:04 pm

I have total trust that Adam Vaughan will not allow the investments of the respectful oil tycoons in Russia, Equatorial Guinea and Angola to reduce in value.

If you worked hard enough like the politicians in Equatorial Guinea and Angola, you can get to own Toronto real estate.

#50 Reality is stark on 03.31.22 at 6:11 pm

It is time to pose an Economics 101 question to all the financially illiterate Canadians out there who are primarily educated in overeating.
If the pandemic and lower interest contributed to a 50% overvaluation in single family homes, what is likely to happen when the pandemic ends and inflation drives up the cost of money?
Any guesses?

#51 Ballingsford on 03.31.22 at 6:29 pm

When you think about it, it’s pretty impressive how fast mortgage rates are rising. That, along with not being able to borrow against homes with HELOCs, and making it harder for speculators will slow things down. And then through in higher interest rates for good measure.

#52 Midnights on 03.31.22 at 6:32 pm

Wow, stupidity usually starts somewhere and goes outward. It’s just a matter of when?

Ip-13
https://oregonfb.org/ip13/

#53 IHCTD9 on 03.31.22 at 6:35 pm

#33 Inflation Man on 03.31.22 at 5:11 pm

….where I am in North York, people have 2 million dollar homes while working jobs previously as postal workers or janitors, you could never afford these houses now on those salaries.
——-

Yep, those folks clearly got a life on the go before Trudeau came to power. Houses have unfortunately since doubled. Forget about owning a home now unless you’re a married couple making 300K per year. Trudeau has napalmed the standard of living in Canada. Now, anyone that went too far trying to live a normal Western lifestyle is about to get pile-drove into the dirt.

Sorry kids, vote better next time.

#54 T-Man on 03.31.22 at 6:38 pm

When the history books are written, the ” wests ” circular firing squad approach to manifest destiny/colonization will be looked at with dumbstruck awe. Checkmate, Russia. By the way, Africa, China, Latin America and India are not with the west’s program.

#55 west coast on 03.31.22 at 6:39 pm

#2 Rook on 03.31.22 at 4:02 pm

I wonder, though, if we’ll see a very tiny window of opportunity to buy low, when prices start to go down and everybody jumps in? Or whether housing prices will merely pull back a bit (or just flatten), and stay that way for awhile?

+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

I don’t think so. As interest rates climb and stay high (assuming tat the bond market is correct) people who gorged on cheap rates will learn a sobering lesson:

Debt is forever.

Living through the effects of the interest rate spikes in the early 1980’s I can tell you one thing for sure:

It’s much safer to owe $100,000 at 12.5% than $1 million at 1.25%.

—————————————————————
the one thing you are all forgetting is that interest rates are also tied to our national debt. canada now pays $391M/day in interest. when interest rates rise, then our interest payments increase. how does that seem sustainable? it doesn’t. thus, the cb will only increase rates for a while, but will never increase them back to the levels of the late 80’s. what was the national debt level for canada back then? not close to what it is now.

#56 under the radar on 03.31.22 at 6:43 pm

I feel for the working stiffs who pound the pavement everyday, day in and day out and are getting mauled by inflation , out of reach home ownership and high rents.
No pity for those who bought too much house or too many houses.

#57 Ponzius Pilatus on 03.31.22 at 6:46 pm

#130 Shawn on 03.31.22 at 12:10 pm
#78 Ponzius Pilatus on 03.30.22 at 8:44 pm said:

Monopolies.
That’s what the endgame in unfettered Capitalism is.

Look at Apple. Charge you 1k for a poduct that costs 50 bucks to make.

You know how high the mark-ups on glasses and hearing aids are? Insane.

I know they are talking about competition.
Where is Apple’s competition?
The minute one shows up, Apple buys them up for a pittance.

Well, but the share holders are happy.

**********************
Well then, it appears that your mission is clear: Buy Apple shares?

1. See opportunity 2. Seize opportunity.
—————————-
Don’t be a Sailo.
But, any economist worth his Schillings ( former Austrian currency, CEF), would argue that this is not the optimal use of scarce resources.
Too much cash ends up in the hands of the American Oligarchs, being spend on Yachts and frivolous trips into near space.
Share prices are out of reach for the common investor.
So they do share splits.
Suddenly, every small investor feels richer.
Just like RE investors who got lucky, buying a simple shack twenty years ago.
Greed is not good.
Competition is better.,
Here is an example monopolies are bad.
Remember, when the Hunt Brothers (Google it, CEF) tried to corner the silver market.
They eventually failed, as Uncle Sam stepped in and outlawed long future contracts on silver.
On March 27, 1980—a date that became known as “Silver Thursday”—the Hunt brothers finally missed a margin call and the market plunged; silver led the way, dropping to under $11 from its high of $48.70.

#58 Froggy on 03.31.22 at 6:47 pm

Looks like this country will get a backbone again with intrest rates higher around 6 % then homes will be affordabl again and keep going down when rates are roughly 4 % u see people under water will be out of the game and specers and everyone will low ball so home will go down roughly 60+ % and you can bank on that just look at 1990 will be the same only worst

#59 I don’t know on 03.31.22 at 6:49 pm

3 OK, Doomer on 03.31.22 at 4:43

Rook is more likely correct. There is incredible demand for SFD homes in our urban cities for a variety of reasons beyond just interest rates (population levels, cost of materials, demographics, family formation trends, urbanization, work from home, rising rents, etc.).

With rates so low it’s been prudent to hold off paying off debt. The idea that all home owners, who are generally wealthier and more stable than renters, are all over-leveraged is false.

Some highly speculative instruments like condos will fall 10-15%, and yes it will be a good time to buy.

But most won’t.

They will sit on the sidelines and try to time the market, like in 2017 when our host last advised to purchase (and was correct).

The buying opportunity for condos and some far flung town homes will be short lived so get ready.

Expecting to buy a SFD in a leafy hood for a 50% discount? Not going to happen. Affordability in that sector is going to get worse, not better. Much worse.

IDK

#60 In Dog We Trust on 03.31.22 at 6:50 pm

hmmm,,, lets say 90% of houses are homes and the remaining 10% are investments. So prices are no longer rising and the investors start to sell. Haven’t we all heard of the many who got out-bid over and over again and don’t you think they can take up some of the slack caused by the 10% release.
and then those that will have to pay more to carry their mortgages, easy,,, 30 ams,,, 40 year ams,,, even 50 year ams… whatever it takes to keep the many from losing their places, their family homes, their life savings,,, their lives…

#61 Sail Away on 03.31.22 at 6:56 pm

Here’s a house for sale near our neighbourhood. Expensive, but not completely out to lunch. Great place to live, Nanaimo:

https://www.realtor.ca/real-estate/24211855/2375-marlborough-dr-nanaimo-departure-bay

#62 pPrasseur on 03.31.22 at 7:10 pm

It is not just about RE and a crisis does not have to be an exact repeat of the US crisis to be catastrophic.

At 345% of GDP Canada is one of the most indebted nations on earth, just a hair behind … Greece:

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-01-21/debt-strapped-canadians-brace-for-a-risky-rate-hiking-cycle

(And that’s not even counting our crumbling health care, infrastructures and massive public sector pension actuarial deficits, if you discount the debt binge productivity in this country is atrocious, not likely to pull us out of trouble)

Yet we don’t have the ECB of the FED to protect us, just the tiny BoC. Simple loss of confidence by investors could put us very quickly in a world of troubles.

A Canadian debt crisis in years to come is very much a possibility, almost a certainty.

#63 T-Man on 03.31.22 at 7:10 pm

DELETED

#64 Shawn on 03.31.22 at 7:14 pm

What is an Index?

#47 Not First on 03.31.22 at 5:55 pm

So according to the chart, since 1990 house prices in Italy and Japan have gone down.
Is this correct?

Do you understand what an index is? – Garth

********************************
Actually Not First is correct. The chart shows house prices have gone down since 1990 in Italy and Japan.
It also indicates that home prices in Canada have not quite tripled since 1990.

The probable explanation is that the chart is in real dollars. It may also be expressed in U.S. dollars for all countries?

Yes to both. Actual prices are not real prices. Hence it is an index. – Garth

#65 Ponzius Pilatus on 03.31.22 at 7:19 pm

We had a pretty cold, rainy and lousy winter here in the Lower Mainland.
But the last two days were great.
Started my vegie garden.
But noticed the sun was is very aggressive for this time of the year already.
Got a sun burn after a few hours in the sun.
Climate change is real, folks.
Plant some trees for shade.

#66 Observer on 03.31.22 at 7:22 pm

#123 Observer on 03.31.22 at 11:08 am
#75 Christopher Mewhort, EA on 03.30.22 at 8:27 pm
64 USA has capital gains tax for gains over 250K per person (per lifetime I think). This likely is one factor, among others, that makes Canadian housing more attractive as an investment and thus more expensive.
————————-
Please keep your day job and try to refrain from giving US taxation advice. Please!

Christopher Mewhort, EA
519-525-7277

^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^
What US tax advice do you think I was giving? And to who – Canadian or US tax payers?

^^^^^^^^^^^

Christopher, I am considering giving up my day job for your job. Please respond to my question soon. Please!

#67 Shirl Clarts on 03.31.22 at 7:29 pm

Out of 100 people in a room, 99 won’t slap you, but one will.

#68 Norman Kennedy on 03.31.22 at 7:42 pm

“In reality, real estate accounts for about 9.5% of the nation’s GDP.” Using a broader definition, Canada’s housing industry repensents 18% of our GDP. I think that a notable recession is inevitable because credit availability will diminish in step with diminishing house prices. Even those with very good credit ratings will be seen as too risky unless they can put more skin in the game. A 20% down payment will no longer be sufficient to borrow money to buy an asset whose value is declining.

#69 Shawdow Banker on 03.31.22 at 7:57 pm

don’t be so smug Garth.

#70 Norman Kennedy on 03.31.22 at 7:59 pm

Many commenters expect a real estate “crash”. If you want to buy low, be very patient and expect real estate prices to decline for up to 4 years. Wait for at least 18 months and have a large 35% down payment. Don’t compromise on location, # of bathrooms, parking… Why buy today when it will be cheaper tommorow? It will take sellers 6 months to realize that it’s become a buyers market. Also keep your eye on the unemployment numbers.

#71 Uncle Thomas on 03.31.22 at 8:07 pm

#22 Søren Angst on 03.31.22 at 4:42 pm

“Scholz and Draghi told him in as many words to “get stuffed”.

————————————–

This is hilarious. Germany get 55% of it nat gas from Russia as do many other European countries. If Putin turns of the nat gas it would be an economic disaster. They will pay in Rubles and like it!

The ruble has completely recovered its value.This actually signals the end to dollar hegemony in the world. How could they be so stupid?

#72 Norman Kennedy on 03.31.22 at 8:09 pm

As Garth said at the start of this story, CONTROLLING INFLATION will trump everything so interest rates are going higher and will stay higer for longer than you may expect. It takes 18 months for interest rate changes to feed through the economy and push down inflation. If the BOC is too meek (or bows to political influence) to wrestle inflation to the ground, recession may morph into depression.

#73 Caffeine Monkey on 03.31.22 at 8:11 pm

Are we sure that the impact of the inevitable real estate collapse will be limited in scope? Because households are leveraged up to their eyeballs, not just because of their mortgages, but because Canadians are using HELOCs to extract money from their homes like some bottomless piggy bank. When this spigot of money gets turned off, this must have an impact on consumer spending and the economy at large.

#74 Brian on 03.31.22 at 8:13 pm

How wild-eyed is Trudeau’s Climate plan?
To power the electric vehicles he would force us to buy, we’d need 100 massive new nuclear reactors built.
We’re not building any.
Or 110 massive new hydro dams.
We’re building 1 or 2.
Trudeau is hopeless on climate issues.

#75 whatever on 03.31.22 at 8:14 pm

Man same story if i came here at any point in the last 15 years… one thing you got wrong, the “70% are homeowners” lie. its actually 70% of people LIVE in a home that is OWNED. So 5 people live in a house, thats 5 “homeowners” as per statistics.

makes it seem like most people are homeowners when its just weasel words.

#76 Oliver Cromwell on 03.31.22 at 8:16 pm

waiting for mawd…

#77 IHCTD9 on 03.31.22 at 8:17 pm

There’s been a young coon stumbling around the yard since yesterday. Tailless, huge amounts of discharge from the eyes, disorientated, fearless, nearly half bald. I think it’s distemper, and there is apparently nothing we can do about it. We started feeding it tonight in the hopes we’re wrong on the diagnoses, but I doubt we are. It definitely was hungry though. The cure apparently is euthanasia, but all I got to carry out the deed are crude implements meant for yard work. Damn… I feel bad for the little bugger, it looks just miserable.

#78 Ponzius Pilatus on 03.31.22 at 8:28 pm

Just saw:
96% of BC got their first shot.
92% got their second.
60% got their 3rd.
No wonder we are one of the leaders in the World in defeating Covid.
Thank you Dr. Bonnie.
And shame on all the petty naysayers, and anti vaxers and anti maskers.

#79 Captain Uppa on 03.31.22 at 8:29 pm

For those who thought they were smarter than everyone and just loaded up on Real Estate … well, too bad! I feel zero pity.

I loathed hearing people ask me when I was gonna buy another property as they all fed at the trough. And now I will not relish, but remain stoic and satisfied that balance has been restored to the force.

Let’s go down, Downa, DOWNA!!!

#80 Doug t on 03.31.22 at 8:32 pm

Dare we say 7% mortgage rates 2023

#81 Michael in-north-york on 03.31.22 at 8:45 pm

#22 Søren Angst on 03.31.22 at 4:42 pm

Tough talk Putin, dumber than a sack of hammers about Int’l payments, decrees today:

Gas has to the EU has to be paid in Rubles.

Observes il Sole 24 Ore

“Gazprombank, a bank not subject to sanctions, which already receives most of the payments for Russian gas, will take care of the Russian currency exchange.”
===

Yep; kremlin bluffed and that bluff has been called. Oil and gas revenues make 30% of their federal budget. They can’t afford to lose those revenues. Certainly not when their economy is in free fall and other revenues are shrinking.

Russians cannot redirect the bulk of their natural gas to other markets. All the major gas pipelines run to Europe. They have no facilities to make LNG and get it to the Asian markets.

They can’t even stop the extraction, because the wells will get blocked and require expensive rehabilitation. They can fill their own storage facilities to the brim, that takes a few weeks at most. After that – either export that gas, or just burn it and get no money at all.

Putin has turned his country into an oversized gas station. But the real problem is that he likes to smoke on the job.

#82 Bezengy on 03.31.22 at 8:46 pm

#31 Philco on 03.31.22 at 5:06 pm

Am I the only guy that’s paid his fair share? Jesus it pisses me off.

—————————

The CRA is MIA. Every day I hear stories of people flipping land/houses/cottages and not paying tax. Nobody I know reports the sale of anything. I thought this was supposed to be dealt with years ago and failing to report was sure to cost you. Not from what I see. The CRA is probably too busy with CERB fraud.

#83 When the Whip Comes Down on 03.31.22 at 8:51 pm

Well I hope your are correct Garth. That is some statement of guidance to all. It’s the only logical direction for things to go based on fundamentals and where we currently look to be heading. Yet fundamentals seemed to be tossed out the window over the last decade.
I would hate to see it go the other way. If it does, might as well throw in the towel.

#84 Numbers on 03.31.22 at 9:06 pm

Actually it’s a bigger problem than you suggest. The 2021 Census says there are 15 million households in Canada. If 69% are owners, that’s 10.35 million home-owning households. If 40% of them have a mortgage, then there will be 4.14 million households facing higher rates.

#85 DON on 03.31.22 at 9:15 pm

#17 BC Renovator on 03.31.22 at 4:28 pm
Any thoughts of a repeat of Xmas 2018? Rates Rise until something breaks, then CB’s reverse course? Seems to be a narrative

*********

They have inflation to deal with now. The playing field has changed.

But they will do whatever and say whatever they need to say in order to save face.

#86 Doug in London on 03.31.22 at 9:36 pm

In the long run a drop in housing costs will be good for Canada. Why? We live in a world where there is global competition for talent. These skilled people look at various factors to determine where to go to fill these jobs, and one is cost of living. A lot of good people with the expertise we need in the new economy have been scared away from Canada because of high housing costs. Get those costs in line with reality and we’ll have more talent, and more prosperity than we know what to do with. Bring it on and Make Canada Great Again!

#87 DON on 03.31.22 at 9:46 pm

#50 Reality is stark on 03.31.22 at 6:11 pm
It is time to pose an Economics 101 question to all the financially illiterate Canadians out there who are primarily educated in overeating.
If the pandemic and lower interest contributed to a 50% overvaluation in single family homes, what is likely to happen when the pandemic ends and inflation drives up the cost of money?
Any guesses?

***********

Cognitive dissonance does not allow them to answer correctly. They only remember the roller coaster on the way up.

#88 Bob Loblaw on 03.31.22 at 9:48 pm

Prices would have to drop 85% in Toronto and Vancouver to be affordable to an average working person.

#89 IHCTD9 on 03.31.22 at 10:07 pm

Looking at the local MLS, the bunker complex is worth a crap-ton o cash right now. Thank-You Trudeau for your non-fiscal policy! Probably won’t be near so valuable in a year from now, but I still win as I bought the place well before Trudeau showed up and sat on his hands while the RE market went berserk. It’s way too far gone for me to lose.

Eventually, I’ll be able to sever and build. Some yahoo from the gta will pay stupid $$ for half of what I own now, and I’ll be 2-300K in the black while simultaneously swapping the old farmhouse for a brand new place. It almost makes me feel bad ripping on Trudeau so much, because he’s the one that made all this possible LOL!

What-ev, keep voting this dunce in kids, I like money just as much as the next guy.

#90 PeterfromCalgary on 03.31.22 at 10:08 pm

#65 Ponzius Pilatus

“Got a sun burn after a few hours in the sun.
Climate change is real, folks.”

Getting a sun burn has zero to do with climate change. Sun burn is caused by ultra violet light. Climate change will not increase ultra violet light hitting our skin or the amount of sun burn you get.

Pro Tip: Wear sun screen or reflective clothing.

#91 dr talc on 03.31.22 at 10:12 pm

They will sit on the sidelines and try to time the market, like in 2017 when our host last advised to purchase (and was correct).

i recall he said a window would be fall 2019, when mtg deferrals ended, its 60% higher now in 905 area. he was correct

#92 tkid on 03.31.22 at 10:14 pm

https://old.reddit.com/r/PersonalFinanceCanada/comments/ttch6e/rbc_warns_on_worstever_affordability_ahead_for/i2xd81x/

Reports from two posters about house values being down 5 to 10 percent in Durham. If you expand to see all the comments, they include the 905 region in the 5 to 10 percent.

#93 dr talc on 03.31.22 at 10:16 pm

correction, he said fall 2020

#94 Satori on 03.31.22 at 10:38 pm

When populations decrease, you get more for your money. Less demand.

When populations increase there is more demand.
They say more people means a bigger economy… but, look at India. ???

Let’s talk about population increase. Shouldn’t that be a topic of conversation concerning affordability?

The Canadian government announced its Immigration Levels Plan 2022-2024. Canada is increasing its immigration targets yet again. It will look to welcome almost 432,000 new immigrants this year instead of its initial plan to welcome 411,000 newcomers.

Every few years 1 million more people, that has got to affect housing… no?

#95 Sail Away on 03.31.22 at 10:41 pm

#90 PeterfromCalgary on 03.31.22 at 10:08 pm
#65 Ponzius Pilatus

“Got a sun burn after a few hours in the sun.
Climate change is real, folks.”

———-

Getting a sun burn has zero to do with climate change. Sun burn is caused by ultra violet light. Climate change will not increase ultra violet light hitting our skin or the amount of sun burn you get.

———-

Ponzie’s always been a bit of a drama queen.

#96 crowdedelevatorfartz on 03.31.22 at 10:43 pm

@#57 Ponzie past pretensions
“Remember, when the Hunt Brothers (Google it, CEF) tried to corner the silver market.”
++++

I’m well aware of the Hunt brothers.
My ex worked for Arthur Anderson and the Hunt’s “silver play” to corner the market was the talk of the office party back when it was happening.
Idiots.
Oh and, ask me how sad I was when A.A was sued out of existence over the Enron document shredding debacle…..a few years after we split.
:)

#97 crowdedelevatorfartz on 03.31.22 at 10:48 pm

@#90 Peter from Cowtown
“Pro Tip: Wear sun screen or reflective clothing.”
++++

Is that before ponzie puts his tinfoil hat on or after?

#98 fishman on 03.31.22 at 10:56 pm

#57 Ponzious, I don’t think that it was Uncle Sam banning long contracts. The Hunts were going long exercising their contracts by taking delivery of physical. What killed them was Uncle Sam legalizing naked shorting for silver. Nobody can go up against naked shorts.
That era’s main similarity to now is that inflation is caused by going way above the sweet spot of 3-6%/year increase in money supply. Johnson & Vietnam then, lil potato & bouncy castles now? When it turned in 80-81 I went from late 20 year old smart ass budding R/E & Fishing Empire multi millionaire to collecting pogey, working under the table in a mud hole building forms & tying steel plus odd weekends dutiful doorman at an after hours club downtown. And grateful to leave town when fishing season started. Be careful out there my sweeties. Listen to Uncle Garth’s warning to have a positive cash flow for the stormy seas ahead.

#99 Ponnaps on 03.31.22 at 10:59 pm

“ will go underwater with negative equity, owing more than their depreciated houses are worth.”

Only true for first time home buyers..

Read the sentence. – Garth

#100 Jenna on 03.31.22 at 11:02 pm

Garth,

Where are you sources your date for”

More stats…households in Canada. About 69% own real estate. Of those, 40% have mortgages. So 2.8 million families have home loans. In other words, 26% of Canadian households carry real estate debt totaling $1.8 trillion.

#101 Observer on 03.31.22 at 11:10 pm

#75 whatever on 03.31.22 at 8:14 pm
Man same story if i came here at any point in the last 15 years… one thing you got wrong, the “70% are homeowners” lie. its actually 70% of people LIVE in a home that is OWNED. So 5 people live in a house, thats 5 “homeowners” as per statistics.

makes it seem like most people are homeowners when its just weasel words.

^^^^^^^^^^^^^

Not “weasel words”, just a misunderstanding as to what Statistic Canada defines as “home ownership rate”. No attempt made to keep it secret as one can easily find the definition at stats canada publications.

The home owership rate is not what percentage of people are home owners, but rather what percentage of households are owner occupied.

So if they say 70% home ownership rate, this doesn’t mean 70% of adult Canadians are home owners, it means 70% of households are owner occupied.

#102 bcc on 03.31.22 at 11:12 pm

I hope no innocent is hurt for the upcoming arson season.

#103 Midnight’s on 03.31.22 at 11:13 pm

A good watch if you’re interested.

Canada’s rental crisis: Why we’re losing affordable housing – The Fifth …2022

https://youtu.be/LSKOfmrHfQ4

I will tell you this, government will not save you. They left the rental market decades ago. And house prices have gone up globally. Google (place of interest) and can’t afford and watch the hits.

Do people not learn? You don’t ask the people that got you into the problem, to get you out.

#104 Dr V on 03.31.22 at 11:51 pm

99 Observer – correct. Very misunderstood.

#105 salonist on 03.31.22 at 11:58 pm

Tick Tock, Tick Tock, The Mouse Ran Up The Clock
what ever happened to the guy who sold his milton home a few years back
and moved to a rental condo in toronto
had he stayed in milton
just wondering, as i haven’t visited for a few years

ps, you have to put on the dark web smoking mans deleted comments

#106 Dr V on 03.31.22 at 11:58 pm

61 Sailo

“Here’s a house for sale near our neighbourhood.
Expensive, but not completely out to lunch. Great place to live, Nanaimo:”
————————————

Ah the “BC box”. Thousands of them in Nanaimo. And that same basic design with the top floor providing all the normally required rooms, and the basement with the extra bedroom and family room for those…..high School parties!! BTO, Nazareth, Doobie bros, Elton……

Love the paneling! Hey is that a console stereo??

Definitely has all the necessities!

#107 Ponzius Pilatus on 04.01.22 at 12:03 am

#90 PeterfromCalgary on 03.31.22 at 10:08 pm
#65 Ponzius Pilatus

“Got a sun burn after a few hours in the sun.
Climate change is real, folks.”

Getting a sun burn has zero to do with climate change. Sun burn is caused by ultra violet light. Climate change will not increase ultra violet light hitting our skin or the amount of sun burn you get.

Pro Tip: Wear sun screen or reflective clothing.
—————————
It’s fricking end of March.
You normally don’t get a sunburn after a couple of hours in the sun at this time of the year.
It’s the depleted ozone layer, caused by your polluting F-150.
Even CEF knows that.

#108 Blutterfy on 04.01.22 at 12:05 am

I was told a few days ago, while discussing the subject of RE in Canada, that even if the BoC raises rates house prices will probably not go down because Mr Socks plans on importing 400,000 skilled workers per year and those people will be looking to buy a place in a G7 country asap.
Thoughts?

#109 Dr V on 04.01.22 at 12:19 am

I don’t like those collars Ian Hanomansing wears – those cut straight across ones. And the black/pink stripe tie added nothing to the pink shirt

Andrew had a dark grey suit with pointed collar and a softly contrasting tie with a very neat full Windsor. Much nicer. And the pocket square nailed it.

#110 Jaded Millenial on 04.01.22 at 12:25 am

Aside from this boring but informative website, I haven’t been on social media in a long time. The recent news story of Russian oligarchs getting their yachts seized because some women they invited post thirst trap selfies on social media is a reminder just how broken the system is.

As a millennial I did everything right.

Born in middle class family, went to UofT, got a job, yet barely afford my Toronto cost of living.

Yet I know if I stop working it all disappears. I can’t stop working. I can’t even remember the last time I was off longer than 2 weeks.

What’s the incentive to be a doctor, paramedic, engineer, or firefighter when you see people on social media traveling constantly, hardly working, and just posting thirst traps.

You have dictators in Equatorial Guinea living the high life on IG while the citizens starve and die of starvation.

How is it all these people on social media can afford this lifestyle when many lack skills to even do anything functional for society.

They can’t fix roads, treat people, build anything. Yet they are living better lives than most. So yeah social media is just an awful reminder how broken the system is and how capitalism doesn’t really reward hard work like people say it does.

#111 BigAl (Original) on 04.01.22 at 1:27 am

What happens to residential rents in a rising interest rate and crashing house price environment?

#112 morry on 04.01.22 at 2:11 am

Prices would have to drop 85% in Toronto and Vancouver.
We live and hope

#113 Jane24 on 04.01.22 at 4:06 am

As a very old RE agent I can tell you what happens next. After the deal is done at 2 am, bank appraisals come in much lower as the banks look to protect themselves. Then regardless of whether the deal had financial conditions or not, the buyer pulls out. The buyer is scared, realizes he has over-paid or still likes the house but cannot finance it. The deal falls apart in a falling market and then things really get messy.

The seller has gone ahead and purchased another house and the same thing is happening to them. No-one in the property chain is getting the money they counted on to make the chain close.

The biggest victims though are the sellers who based on the recent market and the encouragement of their agent have gone ahead and purchased another house before listing their current house. They are doomed to chase the RE market down, clutching at straws, while prices decline and mortgages go up.

Been there and got the fabled T-shirt. A lot of people are going to have a lot of hurt in the next few years. You will not read all this in the press as they have sold their souls to the new home builders who will pressure them to stay with reporting RE rainbows. A lot of folk who brought pre-construction will be shocked that their mortgage deal is raised hugely. A lot of folk who brought condos to flip will have to close and be unable too.

Sign. Life never changes, it just repeats.

#114 Fortune500 on 04.01.22 at 7:13 am

Garth, perhaps I missed a blog about this, but would you be willing to give your thoughts on how the increased immigration numbers the Liberals have planned over the next 3 years might impact real estate prices?

I know it can be a touchy subject around here, but strictly from an economic perspective, do you feel this puts some kind of a floor on a real estate crash? I know that in theory higher rates will push some to be forced to sell, but our population generally sacrifices everything to pay their mortgage.

If supply increases, we have a heck of a lot of Canadians both new and old looking for shelter. This is very different then in the case of the US in 2007/2008, or say Ireland or Spain.

#115 Stats 101 on 04.01.22 at 7:24 am

Canada has to rely on importing wealthy greater fools from abroad because the Canadian & American men are dying:

Roughly one-third of men are either unemployed or out of the workforce. More U.S. men ages 18 to 34 are now living with their parents than with romantic partners.

Economic transformation has been a big contributor. More than two-thirds of manufacturing workers are men; the sector has lost more than 5 million jobs since 2000. That’s a lot of unemployed men. Not just coincidentally, “deaths of despair” — those caused by suicide, overdose and alcoholism — have surged to unprecedented levels among middle-aged men over the past 20 years.

#116 cto on 04.01.22 at 7:47 am

#103 Midnight’s
“I will tell you this, government will not save you. They left the rental market decades ago.”

The housing and rental crises….
financialization of housing through inappropriately lax lending standards – stemming from the Bank of Canada and other central banks. When rates drop below 1% housing goes nuts! Every financial graph in the world will show you that.
SOLULION????
THIS IS ONLY A PROBLEM THAT CAN BE FIXED BY RAISING INTEREST RATES…THAT’S IT….
THE SOLUTION IS IN THE HANDS OF BANK OF CANADA…

#117 crowdedelevatorfartz on 04.01.22 at 8:32 am

@#107 Ponzie’s poor presumptions
“It’s the depleted ozone layer, caused by your polluting F-150.
Even CEF knows that.”

+++
Polluting F-150’s?
Then why did they ban spray aerosol a few decades ago?
Remember the good old days when you could drive to the grocery store in your family station wagon
( a practical car that all accountants could rationalize purchasing) to buy “stuff” like underarm deodorant in a can and not a stick?

We saved the ozone layer by banning aerosol underarm deodorant….. didn’t we?
Nobody talks about the ozone layer any more. We musta fixed it. Or it fell out of fashion.
Now its plastic bags.
Next year it will be tattoos. All that ink in the landfill and the drinking water causes accountants to stagger listlessly about the backyard with dirt on their hands, without any sunscreen, burning their bald spot…The horror.

#118 ABCD on 04.01.22 at 8:48 am

I am worried the Liberal government trying to save the market by allowing owners payment deferrals (like during covid) or introducing 40 year amortizations with people lapping it up. Is this realistic at all?

#119 Ponzius Pilatus on 04.01.22 at 8:54 am

109 Dr V on 04.01.22 at 12:19 am
I don’t like those collars Ian Hanomansing wears – those cut straight across ones. And the black/pink stripe tie added nothing to the pink shirt

Andrew had a dark grey suit with pointed collar and a softly contrasting tie with a very neat full Windsor. Much nicer. And the pocket square nailed it.
—————————-
Very nice commentary.
Worthy of a veteran Royals reporter.
Not sure how Ian fits in there.

#120 Ponzius Pilatus on 04.01.22 at 8:57 am

Happy Greater Fool’s Day, Everyone.

#121 Ponzius Pilatus on 04.01.22 at 9:01 am

106 Dr V on 03.31.22 at 11:58 pm
61 Sailo

“Here’s a house for sale near our neighbourhood.
Expensive, but not completely out to lunch. Great place to live, Nanaimo:”
————————————

Ah the “BC box”. Thousands of them in Nanaimo. And that same basic design with the top floor providing all the normally required rooms, and the basement with the extra bedroom and family room for those…..high School parties!! BTO, Nazareth, Doobie bros, Elton……

Love the paneling! Hey is that a console stereo??

Definitely has all the necessities!
—————-
We call them “Vancouver Specials”.
CEF rents the basement.

#122 crowdedelevatorfartz on 04.01.22 at 9:28 am

@#115 Stats 101
“Not just coincidentally, “deaths of despair” — those caused by suicide, overdose and alcoholism — have surged to unprecedented levels among middle-aged men over the past 20 years.

+++

That surprises you?

Men are bombarded with their inadequacies starting at and early age with their education, next is the media with news reports, advertising, etc etc etc. on how unnecessary they are… until there’s a war and then, …they’re necessary…( forget everything you have been told the last 20 years about “toxic” masculinity and get out there ….fight and die).

The work force has be emasculated with the latest politically correct fad to flow down the Woke sewer pipe while govt work places have been rendered “gender neutral”
Bureaucrats endlessly sifting through historical documents to root out any historical wrongs…no matter how minor. “He” and “she” must now become “they”.

https://nationalpost.com/news/canada/first-reading-b-c-purging-its-laws-of-outdated-terms-such-as-father-and-herself

I don’t think Orwell realized how stupid and evil the human race truly is
Which raises another unimportant question . Is hu”man” still allowed ? Or should it be Person race?
The insanity continues.

#123 Sail Away on 04.01.22 at 10:00 am

#106 Dr V on 03.31.22 at 11:58 pm
61 Sailo

“Here’s a house for sale near our neighbourhood.
Expensive, but not completely out to lunch. Great place to live, Nanaimo:”

———-

Ah the “BC box”. Thousands of them in Nanaimo. And that same basic design with the top floor providing all the normally required rooms, and the basement with the extra bedroom and family room for those…..high School parties!! BTO, Nazareth, Doobie bros, Elton……

Love the paneling! Hey is that a console stereo??

Definitely has all the necessities!

———-

Yep. It’s a house. As they all are.

Vastly overvalued due to some strange collective delusion.

#124 Sail Away on 04.01.22 at 10:05 am

#115 Stats 101 on 04.01.22 at 7:24 am

Canada has to rely on importing wealthy greater fools from abroad because the Canadian & American men are dying:

———

Well, when we were doing due diligence and considering a move here 16 years ago, home ownership was reasonable.

If it was at the vastly inflated rate of today, that would have been a hard no.

And what a loss to Canada!

#125 Ballingsford on 04.01.22 at 10:07 am

#101 Observer on 03.31.22 at 11:10 pm

The home owership rate is not what percentage of people are home owners, but rather what percentage of households are owner occupied.

So if they say 70% home ownership rate, this doesn’t mean 70% of adult Canadians are home owners, it means 70% of households are owner occupied.
*******
And you could extrapolate it further. You could say 70% of Canadians own 90% of the homes (account for 20 % speculators, own more than 1 home) and 70% are owned occupied.

#126 Brian on 04.01.22 at 10:15 am

April 1, another carbon tax kicks in today. 11 cents a litre more for gas, plus home heating and food cost more. Members of Parliament in Ottawa get a hefty raise starting today. Are you happy?

#127 IHCTD9 on 04.01.22 at 10:40 am

#110 Jaded Millenial on 04.01.22 at 12:25 am

…and how capitalism doesn’t really reward hard work like people say it does.
_____

It used to work great pre-Trudeau. Didn’t even really have to go crazy with work and career to get ahead. Before Trudeau came around, lots of folks bought a starter home for less than 2X household income, the federal debt was a third of today’s, and we even paid it down for a while. The Chretien/Martin/Harper years afforded Canadians the foundation to prosper, and we did.

All that came to a screeching halt when we elected Trudeau. Harper left the libs with a sub 1 Billion deficit, Trudeau quickly pounded it 30X higher in under 2 years. Then totally lost his mind in 2020-Present by blowing up the debt by HUNDREDS of Billions. He sat on his hands and watched housing costs go parabolic. He kept right on spending while inflation shot to the moon. He slapped more carbon taxes onto gasoline, even as some canucks are shelling out 2.00+/litre. Now he wants to blow up the housing market too.

We have 1.2+ Trillion in federal debt, housing prices that no one can afford, and the cost of everything is exploding. You can forget about winning in post-Trudeau Canada. Way too much damage has been done. Hopefully rents will not go too much higher so you can avoid moving under a bridge.

#128 Shawn on 04.01.22 at 10:49 am

StatsCan Conspiracy?

#101 Observer on 03.31.22 at 11:10 pm responded to

#75 whatever on 03.31.22 at 8:14 pm who said:

Man same story if i came here at any point in the last 15 years… one thing you got wrong, the “70% are homeowners” lie. its actually 70% of people LIVE in a home that is OWNED. So 5 people live in a house, thats 5 “homeowners” as per statistics.

makes it seem like most people are homeowners when its just weasel words.

^^^^^^^^^^^^^

Not “weasel words”, just a misunderstanding as to what Statistic Canada defines as “home ownership rate”. No attempt made to keep it secret as one can easily find the definition at stats canada publications.

The home owership rate is not what percentage of people are home owners, but rather what percentage of households are owner occupied.

So if they say 70% home ownership rate, this doesn’t mean 70% of adult Canadians are home owners, it means 70% of households are owner occupied.

*********************************
Well said observor.

But so many people just love finding “A conspiracy in every pot” rather than a chicken, that is.

#129 Gerry Cable on 04.01.22 at 11:06 am

https://torontosun.com/opinion/editorials/editorial-carbon-tax-april-fools

It took a block of cheese to knock some sense into Justin? What else is completely clueless about? What has his policy advisors been feeding him? Why hasn’t he gone to a grocery story for years. This is so wrong on so many levels!

#130 Ponzius Pilatus on 04.01.22 at 11:22 am

P.P. just keeps on digging his own political grave

https://apple.news/AHsLAcjaCQwyLuAtovpCRfQ

#131 Dharma Bum on 04.01.22 at 11:25 am

Like Garth says, it’s all about the numbers.

Percentages and proportion.

The effect of a housing “collapse” will be epic, but only for a relatively small number of of people.

The media will report that the sky is falling, and that the end of the world is nigh. As – per – usual. Yawwwwwn.

However, life will go on. The vast majority will adapt. Spending on staples and consumer goods will continue.

In perpetuity. Rabidly. Unceasingly. Infinitely. As always.

Work. Eat. Sleep. Work. Shop. Buy. Consume. Spend. Desire. Covet. Crave. Buy. Spend. Purchase. Order. Yearn. Want. Work. Cars. Boats. RVs. TVs. iphones. iPads. Trinkets. Furniture. Clothes. Shoes. Cabinets. Toys. Netflix. McDonalds. Starbucks. All Inclusive Vacays. Tim Hortons. Facebook. Twitter. Tik Tok. Skip the Dishes. Cigarettes. Booze. Pot. Amazon. CNN. Fox.

After all, isn’t that the ultimate purpose of the pathetic meaningless human existence on this planet?

Consumption.

It is what all modern societies are based and modelled on.

#132 Dr V on 04.01.22 at 11:43 am

119 Ponz – Andrew Chang – one of Ian’s co-anchors.

I admit I watch the CBC national. But I record it so I can blast thru it.

Sun is at same elevation as early September so burns are very possible.

#133 Victor V on 04.01.22 at 11:44 am

‘Worst thing’ for BoC is a delay on hikes: David Dodge

https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/worst-thing-for-boc-is-a-delay-on-hikes-david-dodge-1.1746049

Former Bank of Canada Governor David Dodge is warning the central bank is at risk of a serious policy error if it fails to act decisively to hike rates in order to quell inflation running at a three-decade high.

In an interview on BNN Bloomberg, Dodge, now a senior advisor at Bennett Jones LLP, said any delays to increasing the benchmark rate could be a serious issue for the Bank of Canada,

“I think what we have to do is get rates up quickly but not excessively,” he said. “And I think that the worst thing that could happen is that we delay and delay and delay in getting rates up – and this is true not just of Canada – and then we have to ramp them up very rapidly and very suddenly to very contractionary levels, and then we do risk a problem.”

#134 Will Smith, Realtor® on 04.01.22 at 11:59 am

Only 9.5% of the GDP!?

We are more like 30%. More important than anything else!

How dare you disrespect our industry!

Apologize, or I will SLAP YOU SILLY!

#135 Damifino on 04.01.22 at 12:03 pm

#110 Jaded Millenial

So yeah social media is just an awful reminder how broken the system is and how capitalism doesn’t really reward hard work like people say it does.
———————————-

I was a ‘jaded millennial’ too. That was back in 1970 before I managed to get over myself.

The thing we have now that we didn’t have then is a global super-spreader platform for BS. You should know there was just as much BS around then but it had to seep into your mind the slow, old fashioned way via magazines & newspapers (you had to buy them), movies (you had to go to a theater) and incredibly dumb TV shows (there was no cable, only a roof antenna)

There, the beautiful people demonstrate the perfection of their lives while accentuating the worthlessness of your own. Nowadays there’s a fire hose of crapola showered upon everyone, all day, every day. But its 99% bumf. (That’s a good word “bumf”. Look it up.)

The good news is you can step away from it all. Any time. It isn’t capitalism that rewards hard work. It’s focus and direction that creates wealth, slowly but surely.

The reason for money is not to buy more stuff. It’s to buy time to reflect on the madness about you and take continual steps to avoid it. A capitalist system is the only one allowing average individuals to accomplish that.

You’ve done one thing right. You’ve come here. This blog is loaded with great advice on how to prosper over time (‘time’ being the operative word). I wasted a fair bit of my own time before wising up. You need not.

The sooner you stop pissing and moaning and get on with a productive life plan, the better. You’ve certainly got more time than I do. When you start running out of that, wealth will be the only thing that helps.

Start building it now.

#136 Sail Away on 04.01.22 at 12:13 pm

I brought the 4Runner to the dealership for a recall item last week, and they kindly provided a quote for recommended additional works:

Replace cabin air filter: $76.79
Replace engine air filter: $76.79
Replace license plate bulb: $49.35
Flush transmission, replace fluid: $230.68
Replace front and rear diff fluid: $251.82
Spark plug replacement: $418.60
Brake flush: $119.95
EFI service (fuel injection cleaning): $168.93

Subtotal $1408.84
Shop charges: $19.95
Tax: $171.45

Total $1600.24

So… I purchased the items, plus a few others such as new spark plug wires and a hand pump for $319.48 with tax, and spent a pleasant sunny 4-ish hours with a few brewskies, chatting to neighbours and working on the truck.

Savings of just under $1300 for 4 hours of work. Make it 5 with shopping and fluids disposal. Right around $260/hr.

Hmmm…

#137 Mattl on 04.01.22 at 12:24 pm

#84 Numbers on 03.31.22 at 9:06 pm
Actually it’s a bigger problem than you suggest. The 2021 Census says there are 15 million households in Canada. If 69% are owners, that’s 10.35 million home-owning households. If 40% of them have a mortgage, then there will be 4.14 million households facing higher rates.

———————————————————

Some more numbers:

* ~ 50% of homeowners are mortgage free
* ~ 2.5T in mortgage debt is backed by ~7T in home equity

Which makes sense, people aren’t forgoing food to make huge mortgage payments. If it takes 75% of post tax income to pay the median mortgage, then clearly there needs to be more context around how people are actually paying for homes….and cars, travel, dinners out, etc. If those numbers were representative, consumer spending would be getting crushed.

Incorrect. All residential real estate in Canada is worth about $6.5 trillion, with $1.7 trillion in debt backed by just 40% of those households. This is consequential. – Garth

#138 zxcvbnm on 04.01.22 at 12:27 pm

This weekend’s ramen brought to you by Blackberry. Why do I own this junk??

#139 DON on 04.01.22 at 12:50 pm

#135 Damifino on 04.01.22 at 12:03 pm
#110 Jaded Millenial

So yeah social media is just an awful reminder how broken the system is and how capitalism doesn’t really reward hard work like people say it does.
———————————-

I was a ‘jaded millennial’ too. That was back in 1970 before I managed to get over myself.

The thing we have now that we didn’t have then is a global super-spreader platform for BS. You should know there was just as much BS around then but it had to seep into your mind the slow, old fashioned way via magazines & newspapers (you had to buy them), movies (you had to go to a theater) and incredibly dumb TV shows (there was no cable, only a roof antenna)

There, the beautiful people demonstrate the perfection of their lives while accentuating the worthlessness of your own. Nowadays there’s a fire hose of crapola showered upon everyone, all day, every day. But its 99% bumf. (That’s a good word “bumf”. Look it up.)

The good news is you can step away from it all. Any time. It isn’t capitalism that rewards hard work. It’s focus and direction that creates wealth, slowly but surely.

The reason for money is not to buy more stuff. It’s to buy time to reflect on the madness about you and take continual steps to avoid it. A capitalist system is the only one allowing average individuals to accomplish that.

You’ve done one thing right. You’ve come here. This blog is loaded with great advice on how to prosper over time (‘time’ being the operative word). I wasted a fair bit of my own time before wising up. You need not.

The sooner you stop pissing and moaning and get on with a productive life plan, the better. You’ve certainly got more time than I do. When you start running out of that, wealth will be the only thing that helps.

Start building it now.

**********
A well put reminder for all the ages. The most important thing is buying yourself time to reflect and direct or redirect if necessary. Create options and grind away to achieve.

Cheers…to a timely reminder D.

#140 Ponzius Pilatus on 04.01.22 at 12:52 pm

#136 Sail Away on 04.01.22 at 12:13 pm
I brought the 4Runner to the dealership for a recall item last week, and they kindly provided a quote for recommended additional works:

Replace cabin air filter: $76.79
Replace engine air filter: $76.79
Replace license plate bulb: $49.35
Flush transmission, replace fluid: $230.68
Replace front and rear diff fluid: $251.82
Spark plug replacement: $418.60
Brake flush: $119.95
EFI service (fuel injection cleaning): $168.93

Subtotal $1408.84
Shop charges: $19.95
Tax: $171.45

Total $1600.24

So… I purchased the items, plus a few others such as new spark plug wires and a hand pump for $319.48 with tax, and spent a pleasant sunny 4-ish hours with a few brewskies, chatting to neighbours and working on the truck.

Savings of just under $1300 for 4 hours of work. Make it 5 with shopping and fluids disposal. Right around $260/hr.

Hmmm…
————————-
Thanks for reminding me how expensive owning a car is.
BTW, 4 hours in the sun.
Did you get a sun burn?
Or is the ozone layer still holding over Nanaimo?

#141 dragonfly58 on 04.01.22 at 12:52 pm

Anyone who would pay $418.60 for spark plug replacement is a born sucker. I have been driving for nearly 50 years. I doubt I have spent that much for sparkplugs { change them myself } in my lifetime.

#142 Dr V on 04.01.22 at 12:53 pm

137 Mattl

“…then clearly there needs to be more context around how people are actually paying for homes….”
—————————————————

Years ago, StatsCan had info where you could separate out ownership, mortgage status and income. It was very
telling. Those with the highest mortgage debt were high
income families. And conversely, a high percentage of mortgage free households had very modest incomes, indicating a large number of retirees or semi-retirees.

Also interesting was the income for renters. Way lower
than average, indicating that many rent because it’s all they can afford. “They’re renters for a reason” as my LL buddy puts it.

I know this blog has many high-income renters, but they were not typical at that time.

It did not appear Statscan continued with this info in years following. Too bad.

#143 Graeme on 04.01.22 at 1:05 pm

Won’t these higher rates affect the bond market underpinning everything? Like in a BIG way? I agree with the take on housing but just not sure business will be so hot once there’s another financial crisis. This is the reason CBs will pivot, not housing.

Higher rates do not equal a financial crisis. – Garth

#144 Quintilian on 04.01.22 at 1:16 pm

#117 crowdedelevatorfartz on 04.01.22 at 8:32 am
“without any sunscreen, burning their bald spot…The horror.”

Wow, I thought the bald spot on the curmudgeons was left, intentionally untreated, without sun screen because it is actually a solar panel for your sex drive.

#145 Philco on 04.01.22 at 1:19 pm

#82 Bezengy on 03.31.22 at 8:46 pm
#31 Philco on 03.31.22 at 5:06 pm

Am I the only guy that’s paid his fair share? Jesus it pisses me off.
—————————
The CRA is MIA. Every day I hear stories of people flipping land/houses/cottages and not paying tax. Nobody I know reports the sale of anything. I thought this was supposed to be dealt with years ago and failing to report was sure to cost you. Not from what I see. The CRA is probably too busy with CERB fraud.
====================
Maybe but they had time to audit a company truck…They always got time for me. lol
If you have a real account they don’t let anything fly or they fry.

Anywho go dum dum T2 who thinks they can fix anything.
The huge demand for commodities is going to continue.
I think the housing has maybe a minor decline.
More Carbon tax is here and 3 or 4 increases on drywall to insulation in a year.
I guess they don’t realize all militaries, ships, trains, planes and the 2 million + transport trucks out there can’t run on rubber bands or batteries.
Extracting all the metals to build cars and the grid just exacerbates the problems ahead.
Foods going to continue to go up along with a lot of other things peeps wont be able to afford.
Cars are a drop in the bucket are not the issue and T2 doesn’t give a shit if gas goes to $3 litre = higher food costs…Thats the plan man. Their going to rejig your behavior to reduce your carbon tax emissions to zero LOL

Report says owning a EV will save you $15,000 over an 8 yr period LOL
Don’t worry with the rising cost of everything those saving (which are BS) will be crushed.
I’m on my 3rd EV I know how this stuff works.
Do people really believe the crap their slinging!??

#146 Shawn on 04.01.22 at 1:32 pm

Money Printing Food for Thought

There are very legitimate complaints that central banks printed too much money and/or that ultra low interest rates encouraged commercial bank lending and both of these caused excessive growth in the the money supply.

But here’s food for thought for the intelligentsia and economists here.

If not “printed” or “created from thin air” how else would ANY new money be created?

A software company making huge profits may feel it has created money. Same for every profitable business. But every single dollar they earn flowed from someone else. It was not a newly created dollar. They have indeed created wealth but not money as such.

Rising stock and home prices create wealth and wealth effect. But to cash in you must get dollars transferred from a buyer. That’s not new money.

So, if you don’t like central banks printing money and you don’t like commercial banks creating money through lending, then the money supply would not grow.

Would that be a good thing? Could an economy and population grow with a constant money supply? Each dolalr would be worth more over time. Deflation. A good thing? I think not.

So I think some “printing” and commercial bank money creation is definitely a good thing.

#147 Old Boot on 04.01.22 at 1:39 pm

#78 Ponzius Pilatus on 03.31.22 at 8:28 pm

Just saw:
96% of BC got their first shot.
92% got their second.
60% got their 3rd.
No wonder we are one of the leaders in the World in defeating Covid.
Thank you Dr. Bonnie.
And shame on all the petty naysayers, and anti vaxers and anti maskers.

********

The only reason BC’s performance compares favourably with QC and Ontario’s is that BC was infected with the much less virulent COVID strain from China, vs the European variant that infected the eastern provinces.

That, and the NDP’s well-earned reputation for hiding the data and their inadequate testing regimen.

Now the BC NDP is in lockstep with the federal Liberals in removing all sexed references and data from government resources and statistics. Further corrupting data and rendering it useless for meaningful comparison.

Worth remembering as the number of rapists and murderers in women’s prisons skyrocket, due the presence of heterosexual male offenders who identify as what was formerly known as a “woman”.

#148 Sail Away on 04.01.22 at 1:41 pm

#141 dragonfly58 on 04.01.22 at 12:52 pm

Anyone who would pay $418.60 for spark plug replacement is a born sucker. I have been driving for nearly 50 years. I doubt I have spent that much for sparkplugs { change them myself } in my lifetime.

——–

Agreed. Along with everything else on that list.

Speaking of self-sufficiency, what’s happened to Wrk.Dover?

#149 Old Boot on 04.01.22 at 1:46 pm

For the confused ev zealots who think that consumption will save the planet:

https://mobile.twitter.com/JohnLeePettim13/status/1509228228019466243

“A single Tesla battery weighing 1,000 pounds requires extracting and processing some 500,000 pounds of materials. At this rate, over the next thirty years we will need to mine more mineral ores than humans have extracted over the last 70,000 years.”

#150 Stone on 04.01.22 at 2:02 pm

#110 Jaded Millenial on 04.01.22 at 12:25 am
Aside from this boring but informative website, I haven’t been on social media in a long time. The recent news story of Russian oligarchs getting their yachts seized because some women they invited post thirst trap selfies on social media is a reminder just how broken the system is.

As a millennial I did everything right.

Born in middle class family, went to UofT, got a job, yet barely afford my Toronto cost of living.

Yet I know if I stop working it all disappears. I can’t stop working. I can’t even remember the last time I was off longer than 2 weeks.

What’s the incentive to be a doctor, paramedic, engineer, or firefighter when you see people on social media traveling constantly, hardly working, and just posting thirst traps.

You have dictators in Equatorial Guinea living the high life on IG while the citizens starve and die of starvation.

How is it all these people on social media can afford this lifestyle when many lack skills to even do anything functional for society.

They can’t fix roads, treat people, build anything. Yet they are living better lives than most. So yeah social media is just an awful reminder how broken the system is and how capitalism doesn’t really reward hard work like people say it does.

———

Actually, you did everything wrong. Let me explain.

You took all the right steps…to become a cog in a wheel. You’re a follower who does what they’re told to do. To not question anything. To whine and complain about things that apparently are not within your sphere of control.

Those “IG people” that you apparently don’t pay attention to (of course you don’t because how else would you be aware of them – you can lie to yourself but please don’t lie to us) understand something you don’t. This is what it is. It’s very simple.

Those “IG people” convince others that that having their “glamour” life is exactly what they should be doing. And all you “cogs” believe it.

Do you get it now?

#151 pPrasseur on 04.01.22 at 2:05 pm

So, if you don’t like central banks printing money and you don’t like commercial banks creating money through lending, then the money supply would not grow.

Of course money creation by the banking system is a good thing when kept in check in an authentic free market, where lenders carefully evaluate the risk and solvency of the borrowers. This is what a free market does, it creates a natural balance between demand and offer. In other words money creation is ok when credit expansion correlates with productivity growth.

But when governments are arbitrarily backing up credit (example CMHC) for stimulus or get their central banks to buy assets and lend them money for pet projects, that’s when we enter the territory of “pejorative” money printing.

That is why the RE market in Canada is really in good part a huge money printing machine, in the most nasty sense of the word. It is everything but a free market. Once you understand that you get a lot of what is wrong about this country.

#152 Mattl on 04.01.22 at 2:28 pm

Incorrect. All residential real estate in Canada is worth about $6.5 trillion, with $1.7 trillion in debt backed by just 40% of those households. This is consequential. – Garth

——————————————————————
With respect you are all over the place on this subject. You are calling for RE prices to soften but not correct in any major way. That softening won’t impact the economy.

So why are we worried about a small percentage of homeowners that will be underwater. Guess I’m not following the concern you have about this, daily blogging about it, if such a small percentage of people are going to be impacted that it will have close to zero impact on GDP.

FWIW, I think the correction will be much larger, that higher interest rates + softening RE will have a significant impact on consumer spending and confidence, and that will push an economy that is sputtering into recession. I think the roaring 20s was the past decade, and very tough times are ahead.

I’m also staying invested in both RE and equities.

Canadian residential real estate will not collapse and it will not on its own cause a recession. However it will soften overall, decline substantially in certain areas and hurt a lot of people. All statistically based and consistently explained. – Garth

#153 jess on 04.01.22 at 2:28 pm

Gazprombank.”
Russia is making €400m (£340m) per day from gas sales to the bloc

“bond loop?”
” Russian stocks were being bought through Deutsche Bank in Moscow (with rubles), and the same stocks were being sold to Deutsche Bank in London (for US dollars). This effectively created a money laundering pipeline that went on for several years.”

https://www.investopedia.com/terms/m/mirror-trading.asp

https://www.documentcloud.org/documents/7213796-FinCEN-Mirror-Trades-Intelligence-Assessment.html

#154 Diamond Dog on 04.01.22 at 2:30 pm

Will you feel pity? – Garth

Asking me personally? I think I will feel some bona fide sympathy for the heavily indebted, Garth. I think so. It’ll be a similar empathy to say, an unwanted pregnancy or STD or smashed car from drinking. Kind of like a bad marriage, a preventable life experience but a negative one just the same. I still get them on occasion myself and as such can relate.

#155 Felix on 04.01.22 at 2:51 pm

A perfect pic for Feline Friday!

#156 Shawn on 04.01.22 at 3:02 pm

Tesla Batteries?

“A single Tesla battery weighing 1,000 pounds requires extracting and processing some 500,000 pounds of materials. At this rate, over the next thirty years we will need to mine more mineral ores than humans have extracted over the last 70,000 years.”

****************************
Seriously, is anyone supposed to believe this?

Are there statistics available documenting no only the pounds of sought after ores, but also the pounds of “spoils”.

Anyhow, my Tesla Model Y remains on order – electrical install next week.

#157 Ballingsford on 04.01.22 at 3:10 pm

#155 Felix on 04.01.22 at 2:51 pm
A perfect pic for Feline Friday!

****
That was Thursdays pic. And it’s a dog.

#158 Old Boot on 04.01.22 at 3:21 pm

#156 Shawn on 04.01.22 at 3:02 pm

Tesla Batteries?

“A single Tesla battery weighing 1,000 pounds requires extracting and processing some 500,000 pounds of materials. At this rate, over the next thirty years we will need to mine more mineral ores than humans have extracted over the last 70,000 years.”

****************************
Seriously, is anyone supposed to believe this?

Are there statistics available documenting no only the pounds of sought after ores, but also the pounds of “spoils”.

Anyhow, my Tesla Model Y remains on order – electrical install next week.

***********

The source link was in the tweet thread. The quote is from this document here –

https://t.co/E16GIhWVYg

#159 dragonfly58 on 04.01.22 at 4:31 pm

I think it would be a very good idea if J. T. read that document.
In fact all Canadians should give a good read.

#160 Ponnaps on 04.01.22 at 9:59 pm

Speaking of fools, a lot of people I talk to including those from mortgage sales in the big 5 are unaware of the frequency of BoC rate announcements or when’s the next one…
Many believe .25 is a fixed constant.. the only value the boc can hike by
Are we Foolish or ignorant..dunno which

#161 Mark B on 04.02.22 at 11:43 am

A cat?
Heresy!