The inversion

Some things we should worry about. Others, not so much.

First, the chaff. Then the wheat.

Much of the financial press had its shorts in a twist in the last 24 hours over an inverted yield curve. Whazzat? Is it painful? Does it last? Why’s it a big deal?

In a normal world people buying bonds that won’t mature for years (or decades) expect a higher return than investors who park money in short-term debt. That just makes sense. Like the fact a five-year GIC pays more than one maturing in 12 months, or a cashable high-interest savings account. If you plot it out, the graph moves from low (short) to high (long). That’s a normal yield curve. Long-term investors take on more risk and expect to be paid accordingly.

But when short-term rates spike and actually sail past long-bond yields, we have an inversion. That happened yesterday with various maturities of bonds – enough to get some people excited.

Why would this happen?

Because investors expect those higher short-term yields won’t last. They believe the curve will flatten or reverse as the economy slips and central banks drop the cost of money. In other words, an inverted yield curve = recession. History has shown this is often (but not always) the case.

The yield curve does not cause recessions, by the way. It may just signal them – usually a year or 18 months after the flip. As mentioned, on Monday part of the curve did invert. For the first time in 16 years, the yield on a five-year US Treasury popped above that paid on 30-year debt. The spread on two-years was a single basis point on Tuesday afternoon. This worried those who also look at an aggressive central bank determined to ratchet up short-term rates further, especially in a time of war, political instability, a wonky supply chain and Covid shutting down Shanghai.

By the way, a recession is not a depression, but rather several quarters of shrinking economic growth. We always get over it. But people lose jobs and real estate loses value.

Important to remember is that inversions have happened before and amounted to nothing. Second, the real indicator is the spread between those 30-year bonds and the yield on three-month Treasuries, and no inversion’s happened there yet. Third, the Ukraine war is suddenly looking closer to some kind of resolution. The Ruskies say they’ll pull back from Kyiv and truce talks are ongoing. Fourth the North American economy is running hot (with full employment) which is why rates are rising in the first place. Fifth, the CBs aren’t run by cud-chewing goons. Nobody wants a recession coming after a global pandemic.

So, if you read hourly financial news or watch BNN, stop it. The Roaring Twenties are still on track. Don’t vex. Unless you just paid $2 million for a OSB-and-glue pile in the burbs.

The Big 6 banks hiked mortgage rates by 20-30 bips last week, taking discounted 5-year money to 3.7%. That’s expected to be over 4% soon. In 15 days the Bank of Canada will hike by a full half point, then again four to five more times in 2022. The bank rate has jumped a full 1% in a couple of weeks, and home loans have soared by almost half that. This is abnormal, to say the least. Mortgages by autumn could be 5%, or double what they were when the year began.

The impact?

Mortgage broker Ron Butler says the slowdown has started. Originations are falling. Buyers are backing off. Many who continue to seek financing are going variable – gambling. But the advantage a VRM offers could evaporate soon, if CBs continue to be aggressive and inflation proves difficult to corral.

Meanwhile listings are increasing in most markets. Logic would dictate that fewer buyers, more expensive financing costs and increased inventory would result in lower asking prices, fewer bidding wars and sellers willing to negotiate. Maybe even offers which are conditional on financing or home inspections. Just like the BeforeTimes.

What could change all this in a hurry?

(a) Peace in Ukraine.
(b) The Trudeau-Singh budget (next Thursday) heaps new incentives on newbie buyers.

One of those we will celebrate.

About the picture: “I love your blog and thank you for your sage (and entertaining and free) wisdom,” writes Karen. “I don’t think you have used budgies for your daily photo. If you are so inclined, feel free to use. Soleil and Zephy are super fun little boys – full of curiosity and spunk. They are big fans of sports on TV – they think the cheering is for them. They also love romaine lettuce but may have to scale back their fancy taste thanks to inflation.”

144 comments ↓

#1 Søren Angst on 03.29.22 at 2:36 pm

Pretty darn close…

https://twitter.com/bsant54/status/1508872197917523968

Minute by minute,

https://www.cnbc.com/bonds/

——————-

Quasi vexing.

#2 Prince Polo on 03.29.22 at 2:40 pm

I would also celebrate your cameo appearance in The Big Short 2.0: It’s Metric Baby…a loser renter can dare to dream, right?

#3 Ponzius Pilatus on 03.29.22 at 2:41 pm

Regarding RE:
“Something’s happening here.
What it is, ain’t exactly clear”.

#4 Søren Angst on 03.29.22 at 2:42 pm

I ‘dunno Garth.

Vexing.

Go here. Click on Max. Grey bars show recessions.

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/T10Y2Y

Note any coincidences on your own.

———————

Ball in court now to “Hawkish CBs” if they have the cojones to raise short term rates by 0.5%.

Oh. Ya…

https://www.reuters.com/business/finance/view-us-2s10s-treasury-yield-curve-inverts-2022-03-29/

#5 Ponzius Pilatus on 03.29.22 at 2:43 pm

#111 crowdedelevatorfartz on 03.29.22 at 12:07 pm
@#106 Ponzie’s Political Pals promise payola
“Like gas going to 3 bucks by summer?
If you mean Diesel, you may be right.”
++++
Goodness gracious.
Ponzie must be spending too much time on the elevator.
He’s agreeing with fartzy.
Yes ponzie.
Fuel will be $3.00 liter in the Lower Brainland by July 1st.
—————————
Okay the countdown on the CEF BS clock is ticking:
– gas price 3 bucks beginning of summer
– Putin’s head on a “spike” by end of year.
BTW, summer starts at June 21st.

#6 Brian on 03.29.22 at 2:45 pm

In an era of big-government, surging inflation, and meddlesome politicians who restrict growth and innovation and are harming the prospects of young people, Canada needs a Conservative Party that adheres to the ancient wisdom of sound money and fiscal responsibility, while being able to communicate and apply those principles to the world as it is today.

Pierre Poilievre’s campaign demonstrates the ability to do so.

That’s why the establishment media and the Liberals are already trying to politically attack his campaign.

They recognize that Poilievre has the potential of dramatically changing politics in this country by turning the CPC into the best choice for young Canadians. That could shift hundreds of thousands, if not millions of votes, and could shift the political perspective of an entire generation.

I know Pierre. Apparently you do not. – Garth

#7 Dogman01 on 03.29.22 at 2:45 pm

#116 Brian on 03.29.22 at 1:34 pm
During press conference on child care deal with Ontario, PM Justin Trudeau says the war in Ukraine is leading to “heightened urgency” to lower carbon emissions. The Liberals will release their updated climate plan tomorrow.

What???????

———————————————

Brian – Trudeau is not that smart, the goal of lowering Carbon emissions is simply code for the Goal of the Great Reset, destroying the independence and prosperity of the West’s Middleclass (and those working hard to join it ™) to usher in a New Technocratic\Corporate run globalism without all those pesty, rights, laws, courts and independent citizens. Trudeau must have got an urgent call from his WEF masters to hurry up on the destruction of Canadians prosperity.

Now funny thing is my explanation makes more sense than Trudeau’s justification, you need to keep up with TurnerNation.

What’s the difference between a conspiracy theory and the truth?
………..about six months!”

#8 Steven on 03.29.22 at 2:58 pm

Hmmm SF FED admits COVID Stimmy’s cause of inflation.

“”Though many of the pandemic distortions are common to other countries, we show that U.S. inflation has risen more quickly and increasingly diverged from inflation in other OECD (Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development) countries. In seeking an explanation, we turn to the combination of direct fiscal support introduced to counteract the economic devastation caused by the pandemic.”

Gee whiz, who would of knew? Really?

The FED are EXPERTS and KNOW what they are doing. They pulled off the greatest heist in HISTORY for the 1%. In BROAD DAYLIGHT EVEN…Happy for those CERB checks now? They REALLY go a long way don’t they?

WELL WORTH IT.

And for all you geniuses out there thinking you play the market well, just remember to thank the FED daily.

#9 Steven on 03.29.22 at 3:03 pm

Best lines in recent memory:

“Inflation is TRANSITORY”

“The budget will balance itself.”

Both voiced by complete (yet complicit) idiots. And no one hardly notices or says a word….Baaaaaaaaaaa.

Can you even imagine the nerve and gall to say these phrases in public to the masses? And I bet they sleep like babes each night after their hot cocoa and Ovaltine.

Please vote for your favourite!

#10 RichardTO on 03.29.22 at 3:14 pm

Peace in Ukraine?
Did you not hear Biden’s speech in Poland?
The US wants nothing short of a devastated, bombed out, de-industrialized, de-populated pastoral husk of Ukraine in their plans to wound Russia. They will fight Russia to the last Ukrainian.

#11 Dave on 03.29.22 at 3:15 pm

If there is a truce in Ukraine… then no .5% rate hike?

Still coming. – Garth

#12 yield curve on 03.29.22 at 3:24 pm

A recession is around the corner as shown by the yield curve. Stock markets crash during the recession. Expect one soon. The stock market is overvalued by over 50%

Wrong on three counts. – Garth

#13 SMOKEY (THE BEAR) on 03.29.22 at 3:29 pm

Next federal budget is now scheduled for April 7. In your opinion what are the chances of the Liberals placing limitations on the TFSA?

#14 Brian on 03.29.22 at 3:33 pm

#7 Dogman01

I totally agree with you Dogman. This Liberal government has gotten totally off the rails!

#15 Søren Angst on 03.29.22 at 3:35 pm

It looks like some Ukraine payback to Russia.

Tass confirms.
https://twitter.com/BNONews/status/1508885411552280588

What it looks like.
https://twitter.com/BNONews/status/1508878673021214722

My thoughts.
https://twitter.com/bsant54/status/1508890624581423113

#16 JSS on 03.29.22 at 3:38 pm

# 13

In the years to come, I wouldn’t be surprised to see a maximum cumulative contribution cap in place for TFSA contributions. Maybe even a 1-2% increase in GST, to help pay for the federal debt. Money has to come from somewhere.

#17 Sleepy Joe on 03.29.22 at 3:38 pm

Okay the countdown on the CEF BS clock is ticking:
– gas price 3 bucks beginning of summer

– Putin’s head on a “spike” by end of year.
BTW, summer starts at June 21st.

_————–
Yeah right, BIDEN WIIL change the Russian regime the same way they do it in Sudan, Libya

In the span of 24 hours, Biden has declared that US troops are headed to Ukraine, and declared his intention to impose regime change on Russia. He is really doing a fantastic job…

#18 Trafalet pulla Sami belesto on 03.29.22 at 3:41 pm

During press conference on child care deal with Ontario, PM Justin Trudeau says the war in Ukraine is leading to “heightened urgency” to lower carbon emissions. The Liberals will release their updated climate plan tomorrow.

What???????

That is because Trudeau is a tra.itor and deluded moro.n hellbent on destroying CANADA

#19 earthboundmisfit on 03.29.22 at 3:47 pm

Jay Hill was my MP when I spent the three longest years of my life in PG BC, 1993-96. Was, and still is, a complete a**hole.

#20 toronto1 on 03.29.22 at 3:48 pm

There will be a truce in the Ukraine- just a matter of time-
will it stop inflation- unlikely so rates will continue to rise. ( unless the US/EU back down on their sanctions-inflation will march onwords)

The RE market has been overbrought anyway– its basically being held up by RE investors now– with increase in interest rates and the inevitable restrictions that will be in the budget all guarantee that it slows down.

#21 Paul on 03.29.22 at 3:48 pm

Oh Great a Cat photo!!

#22 Søren Angst on 03.29.22 at 3:50 pm

If a recession were to happen, it would be the WEIRDEST recession in history.

No job losses. Millions of jobs going unfilled.

High consumer demand. Supply Chains straining to get people what they bought on time and what they want.

Lowest interest rates EVER.

etc.

—————-

Then again, since AD 0 (2020)…

Expect the Unexpected.

#23 X on 03.29.22 at 3:52 pm

In my neighbourhood, the listings are still at a pretty high price point, it would appear sellers expectations are not being met though, as the listings appear to be sitting for longer.

Probably good for buyers to have a few options More red dots good) to look at as opposed to have to decide on a multi million dollar listing within hours. For that matter, probably better to wait to buy, which is what I suspect some are doing.

I don’t think rising rates have even been factored in to the market yet, but they will.

#24 jess on 03.29.22 at 3:57 pm

fund a flip … anymore like this model ?

…”The investors he spoke with who are now landlords are still in shock”

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/saskatoon/epic-company-collapses-real-estate-500-homes-1.6399770

#25 Søren Angst on 03.29.22 at 4:01 pm

Some other good news from Ukraine, other than Russia getting shelled IN Russia probably by intent on payback Ukraine is…

Roman Hrybov, “Go f— yourself” guy gets a medal. Back in Ukraine in a prisoner exchange with the New Banana Republic, Russia.

“Soldier who told Russian warship ‘Go f— yourself’ honoured with medal”

https://globalnews.ca/news/8718732/roman-hrybov-medal-snake-island-go-f-yourself/#:~:text=The%20Ukrainian%20soldier%20who%20won,to%20Cherkasy%20Regional%20State%20Administration.

#26 jess on 03.29.22 at 4:06 pm

https://www.cisa.gov/shields-up
https://www.cisa.gov/free-cybersecurity-services-and-tools

A 16-year-old from Oxford has been accused of being one of the leaders of cyber-crime gang Lapsus$.The teenager, who is alleged to have amassed a $14m (£10.6m) fortune from hacking, has been named by rival hackers and researchers.City of London Police say they have arrested seven teenagers in relation to the gang but will not say if he is one.(bbc)

https://www.wired.com/story/russian-hackers-lapsus-north-korea/
Russia’s GRU Allegedly Behind Viasat Satellite Hack

#27 Sail Away on 03.29.22 at 4:19 pm

Ah. Markets (and portfolios) continue to plump. Optimism is high, buying opportunities still decent although no longer great. Still an ok time to buy across the broad market. Specificity? Hard to say right now, although US lenders are a bit depressed with Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan, Wells Fargo, Morgan Stanley all -15% or more below 52-week high. The big tech dips are well on the path to recovery, as shown by TSLA’s +43% in the last 2 weeks, approaching ATH.

Love that volatility. More please.

#28 Canadian Patriot on 03.29.22 at 4:22 pm

@#9 Steven on 03.29.22 at 3:03 pm
Best lines in recent memory:

“Inflation is TRANSITORY”

“The budget will balance itself.”

Both voiced by complete (yet complicit) idiots. And no one hardly notices or says a word….Baaaaaaaaaaa.

“…the budget will balance itself”

Out of curiosity are you aware of the quote in it’s entirety? previous CPC leader essentially said the very same thing.

Quite clear you don’t understand context.

#29 Ponzius Pilatus on 03.29.22 at 4:29 pm

#3 Ponzius Pilatus on 03.29.22 at 2:41 pm
Regarding RE:
“Something’s happening here.
What it is, ain’t exactly clear”.
——————————-
Can’t get the Buffalo Springfield classic
“For what’s it worth” (topical is it not) out of my head.
“There’s a man with a sign over there,
Telling me I got to sell”.

#30 DER on 03.29.22 at 4:29 pm

I think you meant OSB, not OBS? For those who don’t know what Garth was referring to it is Oriented Strand Board…ok in perfectly dry conditions but when it gets wet it’s a disaster. However, drive by any Canadian housing development and it is the norm now over plywood due to cost.

#31 Sam on 03.29.22 at 4:40 pm

You mentioned people lose jobs and house prices go down. Do stocks/ETFs/Portfolios also go down? You didn’t mention anything around the stock market.

#32 Ballingsford on 03.29.22 at 4:41 pm

Those are the nicest birds I’ve seen today!

Anyone who was pre-approved for a new build and the possession date is a year or so out are going to be in for a surprise 90 days from taking possession, with the mortgage rate increases. You pretty much have to get your mortgage approved for real this time. Pre-approval doesn’t necessarily mean you’ll get the loan in about a year. All the factors are taken into account again.

#33 Ponzius Pilatus on 03.29.22 at 4:49 pm

#18 Trafalet pulla Sami belesto on 03.29.22 at 3:41 pm
During press conference on child care deal with Ontario, PM Justin Trudeau says the war in Ukraine is leading to “heightened urgency” to lower carbon emissions. The Liberals will release their updated climate plan tomorrow.

What???????

That is because Trudeau is a tra.itor and deluded moro.n hellbent on destroying CANADA
————————
After a short interlude, bashing Putin, steerage is back to
bashing JT.
Sorry, boys.
Can you say “3 more years”.
No you can’t , and PP is not your saviour.
Or the Curly Hair Guy.

#34 Late Stage Capitalism on 03.29.22 at 4:53 pm

Doug Ford will cut OW and ODSP rates to subsidize the upper middle class home owners.

The best social assistance is a job which doesn’t exist.

#35 T-Man on 03.29.22 at 5:02 pm

Starting this week, the Russian central bank will pay a fixed price of $5000 rubles (52) per gram between March 28 and June 30. Uh oh
Russia will stop shipping natural gas to countries refusing to settle payments in Rubles on March 31. Oh dear
Does this situation teach the woke crowd to mind their own business?
Does this remind anyone of the classical gold Era of 1879 to 1914? The West is now the frog slowly boiling, and the heat is being turned up!

” No amount of evidence will ever persuade an idiot ” -Mark Twain

#36 T-Man on 03.29.22 at 5:09 pm

“Never argue with stupid people, they will drag you down to their level and then beat you with experience.” Mark Twain

Can’t argue about that ;)

#37 NDP: A Wholly Owned Subsidiary of the Liberal Party Of Canada on 03.29.22 at 5:30 pm

Whatever the Lib-dips do re: new buyers will be irrelevant. The 800 pound gorilla is interest rates and the trend in interest rates.

Prospective new buyers should thank dog that they’re not going to be numbered amongst the bag-holders. Assuming they don’t fall for the Lib-dips siren song and instead rely on their grade 9 math skills to make a decision.

#38 The joy of steerage on 03.29.22 at 5:33 pm

#25 Søren Angst on 03.29.22 at 4:01 pm

Some other good news from Ukraine, other than Russia getting shelled IN Russia probably by intent on payback Ukraine is…

Roman Hrybov, “Go f— yourself” guy gets a medal. Back in Ukraine in a prisoner exchange with the New Banana Republic, Russia.

“Soldier who told Russian warship ‘Go f— yourself’ honoured with medal”

https://globalnews.ca/news/8718732/roman-hrybov-medal-snake-island-go-f-yourself/#:~:text=The%20Ukrainian%20soldier%20who%20won,to%20Cherkasy%20Regional%20State%20Administration.
…….

Arisen from the ashes… the ultimate f u!

#39 T-Man on 03.29.22 at 5:37 pm

Let’s recall that the “west ” claimed the Ruble would catastrophicically drop to 200 against 1 U.S.D. Instead, it SPIKED to a high of 130-150 and has been steadily rebounding, now almost completely back to normal, which was in the 75-80 range prior to Feb. 24th. This is a MASSIVE economic shock AND humiliation to the entire democratic west! :(

Why do you come here several times a day to support Russia? That country has been universally condemned and is led by a despotic aggressor. There is no justification for the destruction of a neighbouring nation and the creation of millions of refugees. – Garth

#40 Reality Check on 03.29.22 at 5:41 pm

What’s the difference between a conspiracy theory and the truth?
………..about six months!”
——————————
‘cept all the conspiracy theories of the last couple years around covid, vaccines and the “great enslavement, great depopulation”, and “Bill Gates will be king of the world” keep getting utterly refuted. They just keep not coming true or becoming irrelevant.

But for the conspiracy junkies there are always more windmills to tilt at.

God forbid anyone is making life decisions based on the current crop of conspiracy theories.

#41 crowdedelevatorfartz on 03.29.22 at 5:44 pm

@#5 PP isn’t Pierre Poilivre ( thank God)

“Okay the countdown on the CEF BS clock is ticking:
– gas price 3 bucks beginning of summer
– Putin’s head on a “spike” by end of year.
BTW, summer starts at June 21st.”

++++

You’re beginning to learn that Fartzy may be clairvoyant….

:)

#42 Linda on 03.29.22 at 5:54 pm

Life is for the birds! Cute budgies, but just how much romaine lettuce can two tiny birds eat?

I sure hope that the Ukraine invasion ends soon, but if I were the Ukrainians I’d want visual proof the Russians have departed post truce before standing down any of the defenses. Not to mention making sure those Russian backed mercenaries weren’t lurking about!

Given the heavy reliance on Shanghai ports for import/export in China – apparently some 25%+ of all Chinese import/export traffic traverses via Shanghai – I’d say the shutdown is definitely going to impact the supply chain. Yet more fuel for the inflation fire.

#43 Amarok on 03.29.22 at 5:55 pm

Garth, I love your blog. Always an interesting narrative view of the key political-economic events of the day!

Perhaps you could do a post on the indicators a FTHB should be watching for as they consider a better time to enter the market?

#44 Sail Away on 03.29.22 at 5:55 pm

Get those interest rates as high as possible, as fast as possible.

Those holding financial assets without debt benefit from high interest rates.

And people might actually buy bonds for the yield again… instead of for whatever weirdly irrational reason bond-buyers use now.

#45 Peter in Toronto on 03.29.22 at 5:58 pm

@Garth
“There is no justification for the destruction of a neighbouring nation and the creation of millions of refugees.”

Considering that Zelensky is a willing proxy of the US State Department, why aren’t you willing to recognize this easily avoidable conflict is result of failure and hubris of Western “leaders”?

They never planned to allow Ukraine into NATO. Yet they were not willing to submit that to Russia in writing. Crimea and the Donbas provinces were lost in 2014. Those were concessions that could have been made with no consequences to the world – yet the US/NATO chose war and the destruction of Ukraine instead.

Putin invaded Ukraine, levelled cities, displaced millions of innocents and caused tens of thousands of deaths (mostly Russian soldiers) and it’s the fault of the US? I think you are done here. – Garth

#46 Sail Away on 03.29.22 at 5:59 pm

#40 Reality Check on 03.29.22 at 5:41 pm

…all the conspiracy theories of the last couple years around covid, vaccines and the “great enslavement, great depopulation”, and “Bill Gates will be king of the world” keep getting utterly refuted. They just keep not coming true or becoming irrelevant.

——–

Ah, yes. To which we can add:

‘Trump is going to jail! Guaranteed!’

#47 T-Man on 03.29.22 at 5:59 pm

DELETED

#48 Vic Hood on 03.29.22 at 6:11 pm

If you have 60,000 and want too buy a house, the bank will give you a mortgage of 240,000, uninsured, against a property valued at 300,000. That’s where they see the risk. Their loan is secured by the property. if you take your 60Gs to the same bank, and the government insures the loan through CMHC, to protect the Bank, the loan is about 850,000 and the property value (?) about 900,000. Plus, there are fees and premiums. Land transfer tax, real estate broker fees, Legal fees, and on and on. the total transaction goes past a million in a gallop. The bank’s risk stays the same. They get to loan all that extra money at no risk. the loan is secured by the insurance. Good news for the pin striped squad not so much for the Shmuck taxpayer who has to go into the anvil factory and pound sand every day just to pay his taxes.
That’s where the risk lies. that’s where the leverage is. Why should we be surprised when the excreta hits the fan? Not long ago the boss at CMHC put his head over the parapet and suggested that we slow down, just a little, please. The outrage was palpable. I hope they kept his number.
It’s unconscionable. They may just view it as the game we all play in but some players are being screwed and there has to be a limit.

#49 Summarizer on 03.29.22 at 6:12 pm

Economy good? Stocks go up, real estate down.

Economy bad? Stocks go up, real estate down.

A troubled real estate market will not translate into a bad economy. – Garth

#50 Quintilian on 03.29.22 at 6:16 pm

(a) Peace in Ukraine.
(b) The Trudeau-Singh budget (next Thursday) heaps new incentives on newbie buyers.

A) Let there be peace… Amen, from your lips to God’s ears.

B) Chrystia is going to be truly hated by the curmudgeon specuvestors whose retirement plan included the exploitation of young people with unconscionable usurious rents.

Yes there will be billions of dollars to spur construction and homes for people and not for criminals to use as a medium to undeserved wealth.

#51 AK on 03.29.22 at 6:33 pm

“For the first time in 16 years, the yield on a five-year US Treasury popped above that paid on 30-year debt.”
=====================================

And It has been close to 16 years that the Fed has been manipulating the short term yield curve.

#52 cuke and tomato picker on 03.29.22 at 6:43 pm

I really enjoyed the post today and Garth keep up the good work. We will see the number of interest rate increases in the next 21 months maybe 6 to 9 to settle things down. With things opening up people are on the go spending money they don’t have.

#53 Barb on 03.29.22 at 6:50 pm

“…the curve will flatten…”

Learned that phrase the last 2 years.

#54 Lumber on 03.29.22 at 6:51 pm

Just remember that if you feel a politician is speaking directly to you, never assume you’re in the majority. The majority will always vote for them most ‘free’ things….

#55 Downward Slope on 03.29.22 at 6:54 pm

#49 Summarizer on 03.29.22 at 6:12 pm
Economy good? Stocks go up, real estate down.

Economy bad? Stocks go up, real estate down.
///////////////////

By George. I think you got it!

#56 Sail Away on 03.29.22 at 6:54 pm

#45 Peter in Toronto on 03.29.22 at 5:58 pm

They never planned to allow Ukraine into NATO. Yet they were not willing to submit that to Russia in writing.

———

???

What country or leader could ever commit to restricting a third-party independent nation, in good standing, from being considered for inclusion in any organization they chose to pursue?

If you see that as legit justification, you are clearly operating on preconceived ideals.

#57 Michael in-north-york on 03.29.22 at 7:02 pm

#42 Linda on 03.29.22 at 5:54 pm
I sure hope that the Ukraine invasion ends soon, but if I were the Ukrainians I’d want visual proof the Russians have departed post truce before standing down any of the defenses. Not to mention making sure those Russian backed mercenaries weren’t lurking about!
===

That’s true, but at this point it isn’t even very likely the truce will be signed. The parties are very far apart.

Ukrainian President Zelensky’s administration is made of moderates, they are ready for certain concessions. The Ukrainian armed forces and many members of the “territorial defence” units are much more radical. They might reluctantly accept what Zelensky has just proposed, but if he makes any further concessions, they will ignore the truce and continue fighting guerilla-fashion. Zelensky’s room for compromise is limited.

On the other side, Russian top generals have realized that they can’t control all of Ukraine. They want an agreement that lets them stop the fighting, and perhaps keep some minor territorial gains. However, psychopath Putin thinks his position in power will be in jeopardy if he doesn’t reach a decisive victory, after all the losses his army and his economy suffered. He pushes his generals to keep fighting.

The “middle ground” requires concessions that are too big for Zelensky, and yet too small for Putin.

Although I’d be happy to be wrong, and hear that the truce is signed and is observed by both sides.

#58 Saul on 03.29.22 at 7:05 pm

#34

My wife is a social worker.

She was directed to make deliberate delays in the payments for welfare, especially for disabled recipients.

She was told by her superiors that in some cases, the recipients end up panicking that they jump the tracks or OD in desperation.

This is how sociopathic the OP Cons are to the poor and disabled.

#59 Ustabe on 03.29.22 at 7:15 pm

#30 DER on 03.29.22 at 4:29 pm

I think you meant OSB, not OBS? For those who don’t know what Garth was referring to it is Oriented Strand Board…ok in perfectly dry conditions but when it gets wet it’s a disaster. However, drive by any Canadian housing development and it is the norm now over plywood due to cost.

they have changed both the ingredients and the manufacturing process some number of years ago. OSB is a perfectly acceptable and environmentally friendly building material now.

Quote: “Every single fiber or piece of wood in an OSB is saturated with a cocktail of resins designed to provide superior strength and waterproofing to the finished product. This type of construction makes OSB an incredibly strong material.”

https://plidek.com › osb-substrate-waterproofing-systems

#60 Alberta Nomad on 03.29.22 at 7:22 pm

“We know they are lying, they know they are lying, they know we know they are lying, we know they know we know they are lying, but they are still lying.”
— Aleksandr Isayevich Solzhenitsyn

It has only been a few hours since Russia started withdrawing and bombardments in and around Kyiv have intensified. The forces being withdrawn will be redeployed in the east and continue the destruction of Ukrainian cities and lives there.

Hopefully the Ukrainians continue to fight like lions and the West does not lose its resolve.

Слава Україні

#61 DON on 03.29.22 at 7:23 pm

#31 Sam on 03.29.22 at 4:40 pm
You mentioned people lose jobs and house prices go down. Do stocks/ETFs/Portfolios also go down? You didn’t
********

Your line of reasoning is troublesome to say the least. Companies have more means to weather a recession like cutting staff. Individual people, who are over leveraged face hard reality when the tide rolls out…not so much.

We all are affected in someway or another as the Party ends, the drinking is over and the lights come on. Yikes!

Dosen’t sound like you have experienced a recession as an adult, Sam I am.

#62 Ponzius Pilatus on 03.29.22 at 7:26 pm

#41 crowdedelevatorfartz on 03.29.22 at 5:44 pm
@#5 PP isn’t Pierre Poilivre ( thank God)

“Okay the countdown on the CEF BS clock is ticking:
– gas price 3 bucks beginning of summer
– Putin’s head on a “spike” by end of year.
BTW, summer starts at June 21st.”

++++

You’re beginning to learn that Fartzy may be clairvoyant….

:)
——————
Of course, you are.
The PNE is looking for a Fortune Teller.
Apply early.
Lots of competition from the steerage section.

#63 T-Man on 03.29.22 at 7:29 pm

#41 : Fartzee? Is that the uncool cousin of Fonzi?

#64 Arcticfox on 03.29.22 at 7:29 pm

Historical context :

The US 2y/10y inverted today… the only time it did not lead to a recession within 6-12 months was in 1998…

#65 Stone on 03.29.22 at 7:29 pm

Don’t know why there’s so much pessimism. Just stick with a wonderful and dreamy B&D portfolio. One week ago, it was back in the black at 0.03%, went back slightly negative from there and now, at end of day today, it sits at 0.51%. Life is good. I wish the same for everyone.

#66 jess on 03.29.22 at 7:30 pm

Radio Sputnik, funded by the Russian government, pays broadcast companies in the U.S. to air its programs. Only two do so: One is Peter …

https://www.thestar.com/news/world/us/2022/03/26/missouri-station-offering-russian-state-radio-to-listeners.html

Trump’s new global media chief fires top editor at Radio Free Asia
Since he was confirmed as CEO in a party-line vote, Pack has fired the heads of all 4 news outlets under his agency as well as the boards governing them.
The U.S.-funded news services rely heavily on foreign journalists to translate reports on events in the U.S. into dozens of foreign languages and to cultivate local sources in repressive societies.

https://www.nbcnews.com/news/europe/trump-s-new-global-media-chief-fires-top-editor-radio-n1233321

When looking at news

https://thetrustproject.org/
https://thetrustproject.org/trusted-journalism/

His first move was to take control over private TV network and TV, and then, step by step, he got control over each and every TV network in this country. And then, you know, everything else followed: newspapers, information agencies. Now we are left—there is one independent magazine, one independent newspaper, one Internet-based independent TV channel. That’s it. That’s all left for the country of 150 million people.
There was no elections. Each and every election since 2000 was staged. There was no elections. They were controlled by Kremlin. 55Jan. 6, 2017: An assessment on “Russian activities” in the electionView LinkThe distribution of money was controlled by Kremlin. Each and every sponsor of any party had to bring cash to Kremlin. [In] 2003, Putin put Mikhail Khodorkovsky in jail, once the wealthiest man in Russia and the sponsor of a couple of political parties. Precisely for doing that, Khodorkovsky went in jail, even though, you know, he was sentenced for tax evasion, etc.

Anyway, so—and Putin made it clear to businessmen that if they want to be well and free and alive, they should abstain from providing any money to any political parties, any media, anything, without consensus from the Kremlin. Beginning 2003 elections, each and every sponsor of any political party or any political candidate had to bring cash, first to Kremlin, and then it was Kremlin who decided where the money went. There was no contestation. There was no equal access to the media. Putin’s political opponents, whether parties or personalities, they were unable, get it, to get the same representation at TV as party in power or not talking about Putin himself.

The reporting behind the March 2022 documentary Putin’s Road to War draws on more than 60 interviews FRONTLINE has conducted over the last five years about Vladimir Putin’s rise to power, including interviews filmed since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. These interviews can be explored below in video or text. The collection is part of FRONTLINE’s Transparency Project, which makes our source material available to the public.
https://www.pbs.org/wgbh/frontline/interview/yevgenia-albats/

…”First of all, I think it’s important to say that there are a lot of misunderstandings in the West with respect to his education. When you read Western newspapers and Western publications, they say that Putin graduated from the law school. He never did. The St. Petersburg University had a faculty that was called the Department of Judiciary, but it had nothing to do with preparing lawyers or attorneys or anything like that. These were the usual education for the future Soviet Union bureaucrats. This department didn’t prepare lawyers or didn’t teach the supremacy of law, never, ever. This department was preparing obedient bureaucrats. That’s number one. ,

https://www.pbs.org/wgbh/frontline/interview/yevgenia-albats/

#67 Arcticfox on 03.29.22 at 7:34 pm

Can you imagine if long end continues to sniff slowdown and cb’s blunder via half point jumps ..remember bank’s life blood..borrow short ..loan long..

#68 Ponzius Pilatus on 03.29.22 at 7:38 pm

Good to see that CNN and Fox-News are back after a 30 day long “Breaking News” about Ukraine.
Back to bashing Biden or Trump.

#69 Ponzius Pilatus on 03.29.22 at 7:52 pm

Talking about Oligarchs.
Bezos sure qualifies.
He’s got a billion dolla Yacht.
Musk is a candidate, too.

#70 TurnerNation on 03.29.22 at 8:59 pm

Birds? A new low for this weblog, lower even than the cats.

— Normalcy soon very goon guys. Maybe 2 More Weeks?
Remember, Kanada signed contracts into 2024. This must be kept going; the Long Game

.Doctors say Omicron subvariant a sign ‘pandemic is not over yet’ (cbc.ca)

–Life in a Former First World Country. Do you like rickshaws and scooters? Cause that’s where we are headed. The Rich will have their Teslas and private jets. Unfettered. Control over Travel, always.

.Canada releases plan for a 40 per cent cut in carbon emissions by 2030 (cbc.ca)


— The future. Hey who said that Australia is a test bed for all of this New System nonsense?
You will require the global Mark in order to buy and sell

https://www.news.com.au/finance/business/other-industries/devastating-decision-by-australias-big-four-banks-impacts-300-suburbs/news-story/e25dc588d9c96cd48abe18aab3b80f90

‘Devastating’ decision by Australia’s big four banks impacts 300 suburbs
Bank branch closures are having a “devastating impact” with new data showing almost 459 branches have been shut down in the last few years, while thousands of ATMs were also removed.
The shutdowns left nearly 300 NSW suburbs without a branch to visit and 216 suburbs have been left with no way to procure cash after the closure of ATMs in the area.

#71 Flop… on 03.29.22 at 9:00 pm

#69 Ponzius Pilatus on 03.29.22 at 7:52 pm
Talking about Oligarchs.
Bezos sure qualifies.
He’s got a billion dolla Yacht.
Musk is a candidate, too.

//////////////////////

Garth told me it’s my rostered week off, but since you are having an episode I will step in on medical grounds.

“Who Are the Russian Oligarchs?”

https://www.visualcapitalist.com/who-are-the-russian-oligarchs/

Since you’re also keeping tabs on Uncle Crowdie’s predictions, don’t forget he said Global Anchor Chris Gailus would be gone before the end of the year.

I recall others, but I don’t want to get you too overexcited…

M47BC

#72 Toronto Nomad on 03.29.22 at 9:05 pm

DELETED

#73 Dazed and CONfused on 03.29.22 at 9:16 pm

“…I know Pierre. Apparently you do not. – Garth….”

Speaking of Pierre Poilievre, Garth, any thoughts on the latest campaign promise from Question Period’s mud-slinging barking chihuahua?

“….Conservative leadership candidate Pierre Poilievre said Monday a government led by him would do more to normalize cryptocurrencies like bitcoin and ethereum in Canada to “decentralize” the economy and reduce the influence of central bankers……”

“Choice and competition can give Canadians better money and financial products. Not only that, but it can also let Canadians opt-out of inflation with the ability to opt-in to crypto currencies. It’s time for Canadians to take back control of their money and their lives by making Canada the freest country on earth,” Poilievre said.

– CBC New, Monday March 29, 2022

#74 Blobby on 03.29.22 at 9:27 pm

“Fund a Flip” – Genuine lol..

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/saskatoon/epic-company-collapses-real-estate-500-homes-1.6399770

#75 crowdedelevatorfartz on 03.29.22 at 9:32 pm

@#63 Troll-Man

Isn’t there a Russian conspiracy theorist missing their keyboard somewhere in your neighborhood?

#76 TurnerNation on 03.29.22 at 9:35 pm

The Middle Class Paycheque is worthless — for that lifestyle. The job you held 20-30 years ago coming out of school, still pays the same salary.

It ain’t gonna buy you a home fit for a family. Interest rates hikes will only cement this.
Food? If you scrimp. The karbon taxes + fuel price + the manufactured wars and supply constrains, will only worse.
Education? A ponzi scheme for the leftist unions running that show. Teacher leave those kids alone.
Transportation? Used vehicle prices are off the charts, and who can afford the repairs on today’s complex car systems?

What may you afford? DEBT.
You’ll notice that most E-commerce sites offer a built-in payment plan via a 3rd party. (Would this be for the persons always maxed out on conventional debt cards?)

GM is offering 84 month new vehicle financing. Ho-ho-hold the payments. Your new car will be a worthless rusted junker by the time that’s up.

#77 crowdedelevatorfartz on 03.29.22 at 9:47 pm

Ponzies Predictive Pause. ( Troll-Man needs a pal)

Why stop at fuel increases Ponzie?

Ukraine and Russia produce 30% of the worlds grains, corns, etc.
They also produce the fertilizers used by farmers around the world to grow crops.
Gone in a snap of the fingers.
Expect obscene price increase in grain based foods and grain fed animal foodstuffs.
2022 : The year 800 million people went hungry and the rest of the world …..paid more…for less.

Another interesting trend.
BC Ferries warning of long lineups and price increases due to staff shortages.
A friend has informed me.
Some ships will be tied up at the dock this summer and have staff cannibalized to crew busier routes…
Gulf Islanders….take note.
Cancellations and painfully long sailing waits…will cause many trucking companies to increase prices due to long waits…..tourists will watch this and factor in the hideous fuel costs of driving anywhere this summer and decide…….to stay home.

#78 crowdedelevatorfartz on 03.29.22 at 9:56 pm

@#71 Floppie
“I recall others, but I don’t want to get you too overexcited…”

+++

Nothing worse than an excited Ponzie.
Rutabaga stew spilled everywhere as he talks, texts and eats simultaneously

Gailus gone is wishful thinking, but definitely possible.
In this pc world of Wokeness.
The days of square jawed, anglo saxon, hetero, male, tv news readers are over.

#79 Reddy on 03.29.22 at 10:07 pm

I jumped right to the comments before I read the blog today… So happy to see the birds on the blog today … Really nice.

#80 Ponzius Pilatus on 03.29.22 at 10:26 pm

#71 Flop
list.com/who-are-the-russian-oligarchs/

Since you’re also keeping tabs on Uncle Crowdie’s predictions, don’t forget he said Global Anchor Chris Gailus would be gone before the end of the year.
——————
Thanks,
I’ll add Gailus to CEF’s BS prediction Clock.
I think he also predicted that PP will clean JT’s clock in the last election.
I also wonder where the Las Vegas bookies place his bets.
I think even Sailo has a better track record.

#81 Shawn on 03.29.22 at 10:32 pm

Who Needs Bank Branches or Cash?

Turner Nation at 70

Bank branch closures are having a “devastating impact” with new data showing almost 459 branches have been shut down in the last few years, while thousands of ATMs were also removed.
The shutdowns left nearly 300 NSW suburbs without a branch to visit and 216 suburbs have been left with no way to procure cash after the closure of ATMs in the area.

***********************************
Very rare to need to visit a bank branch these days.

Only time I needed paper cash in the last year or two was to make a payment to one person who was not reporting her income and I used her for all of 10 hours.

Most of us have quietly gone cashless.

The number of ATMs at the big banks in Canada is slowly declining.

So far bank branches in Canada I think holding steady, not too many closing.

But ScotiaBank (i.e. Bank of Nova Scotia) is closing some branches in Nova Scotia of all places. Maybe their executives got mad when Nova Scotia blocked them at the border during the pandemic. No sympathy. Those people can simply move to Alberta.

#82 crowdedelevatorfartz on 03.29.22 at 10:35 pm

@#123 Lorne
“Strangely enough, with good management, ICBC is thriving and is able to return some of the $ you paid for your insurance. ”

+++

Last year I paid $1950 for my 8 year old truck.
My accident free discount “saved” me almost $900.
Then
The NDP legislated “No Fault” insurance to reduce the ambulance chasing lawyers and the multi million dollar cash payouts to dreadful BC drivers.
This year my 9 year old truck will cost $1450 to insure with my “discount ” factored in.
Then we get the $110 promised “bonus” tossed to us as a bone sometime in the near future..
One wonders what actual govt monopoly car insurance would really cost if all the political smoke and mirrors were removed?
$800 per year?
$850?
Only Horgie Porgie and Queen Christie know for sure since we don’t get to see the real numbers.

#83 Ponzius Pilatus on 03.29.22 at 10:40 pm

Usually, I read “five thirty eight” for their sports and politics predictions.
But this one caught my eye:
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/support-for-ukrainian-refugees-is-high-in-europe-that-may-not-last/

#84 Ponzius Pilatus on 03.29.22 at 10:49 pm

#76 TN
GM is offering 84 month new vehicle financing. Ho-ho-hold the payments. Your new car will be a worthless rusted junker by the time that’s up.
———————
Usually I don’t agree with your endless whining.
But this time you’re bang on.
American made cars are junk.

#85 Dr V on 03.29.22 at 11:15 pm

81 Shawn

“Who Needs Bank Branches or Cash?”
————————————————

Apparently not the town of Lake Cowichan, but my
barber and fave coffee shop still take cash. At least my
cash.

https://www.lakecowichangazette.com/news/credit-union-moving-to-former-rbc-branch-site-in-lake-cowichan/

I continue to visit the bank once a month. Maybe that will change.

I notice they no longer have a greeter or lineup referee.

#86 Frank Morton Jr. on 03.29.22 at 11:30 pm

I read recently that the inversion has been a perfect predictor of recession, except once in ‘57. Aside from that one time , it seems likely a recession is headed our way. The political landscape of spenders and wasters pretty much guarantees it. With inflation rampant and Trudeau killing off industries that generate the most revenue and replacing the shortfall with more debt . No doubt in my mind.

#87 Mark on 03.29.22 at 11:37 pm

the roaring twenties were the last 14 years of insanely cheap borrowing. Where exactly is new money (credit) supposed to come from?? It’s time to for everyone to pay down their debt, the piper is calling and if you can’t admit that then well…

#88 calgaryPhantom on 03.30.22 at 12:47 am

Forget about the inversion curve. The real recession indicator is men’s underwear. When did you last buy one?

https://edition.cnn.com/2022/03/26/economy/recession-underwear-alan-greenspan/index.html

#89 Midnights on 03.30.22 at 2:28 am

“ I know Pierre. Apparently you do not. – Garth”

And Trudeau has United the country so well, right!
Tell me 5 things, no 3 things. He’ll be remembered for in the history books of greatness. That shouldn’t be hard, lol.

#90 Ballingsford on 03.30.22 at 7:54 am

#88 calgaryPhantom on 03.30.22 at 12:47 am
Forget about the inversion curve. The real recession indicator is men’s underwear. When did you last buy one?
******
Canned dog food too. Can’t believe the price of it now and they also made the cans smaller. Grocer has top sirloin roasts on sale this week, at a ridiculous low price of $4.99lb. Cheaper to buy a few roasts and chop it up and make my own dog food.

#91 Victor V on 03.30.22 at 7:54 am

NEWS RELEASE

Ontario Cracking Down on Foreign Real-Estate Speculation with the Most Comprehensive Non-Resident Speculation Tax in Canada

https://news.ontario.ca/en/release/1001887/ontario-cracking-down-on-foreign-real-estate-speculation-with-the-most-comprehensive-non-resident-speculation-tax-in-canada

#92 YVR Renter on 03.30.22 at 7:55 am

Now an Ont renter, in vacationland north of the big smoke, waiting to build on land we own free and clear, biding our time. Thinking costs will go down. We’ve seen overheated markets before and they never end well for the greater fools.
Houses in our little hood were selling as fast as listed…until the last few weeks. Now there are a bunch of overpriced clapboard starter homes sitting, sitting. A friend in another outburg has listed elderly parents’ home….realtor warned them it’s a different market, things have really slowed. If you get an offer, take it, don’t expect a bidding war, just get out. NOW.

#93 THE DANDADA on 03.30.22 at 8:19 am

If they think they got it bad now just wait until interest rates rise which is just another form of inflation.

ONLY the BANKSTERS win, but what’s new?

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/03/30/1-in-5-american-workers-runs-out-of-money-before-payday-survey-finds-.html

#94 crowdedelevatorfartz on 03.30.22 at 8:35 am

@#84 Ponzies Pouting Puckers the Piehole

“Usually I don’t agree with your endless whining.
…..
American made cars are junk.”

++++

More encouraging positivity from our resident snark.
Or
Was the lemon you sucked yesterday picked too soon?

#95 expat on 03.30.22 at 8:58 am

“Putin invaded Ukraine, levelled cities, displaced millions of innocents and caused tens of thousands of deaths (mostly Russian soldiers) and it’s the fault of the US? I think you are done here. – Garth”
————————————————–

Garth, you know a little and understand nothing in what happened in Ukraine, and spreading Ukrainian disinformation.
It is not war of Russia against Ukraine.
It is war of Russia, China and many other big countries against rotten, insane and perverted Anglo-Saxon Empire aka USA/Canada/UK and their western vassals.
In this war Anglo-Saxon evil Empire will be finally destroyed.
Ukraine chooses wrong side of the history.
PS. I’m not Russian and never live in Russia, but I underrstand Russian language.

#96 crowdedelevatorfartz on 03.30.22 at 9:38 am

@#88 Phantom
“The real recession indicator is men’s underwear. When did you last buy one?”
+++

Where (wear?) on this planet can you purchase…. one pair of men’s underwear?
They usually are packed in double, quadruple packs with one hideous pair hidden in the middle. (I save the ugly pairs for the day Ponzie and I meet on one of his epic walks.)
The pair that most men wouldn’t even want to be found dead wearing….plaid.
Ponzie’s plaid pair.

#97 IHCTD9 on 03.30.22 at 9:38 am

#84 Ponzius Pilatus on 03.29.22 at 10:49 pm

American made cars are junk.
____

I beg to differ. My two 3/4 ton GMC’s are 19 and 31 years old, and in perfect running condition.

I think the ’91 C2500 has a decade of use still in it -easy. I bought it from the estate of the original owner last year if you can believe it. The owner died before the truck did.

#98 Brian on 03.30.22 at 9:47 am

By 2030, all of our F-35s will be electric.

#99 Expect the Worst on 03.30.22 at 9:54 am

Wow !!! Trudeau threatens oil companies they must use shareholder capital to meet his arrogant climate models. This is a foot-in-mouth dictator talking about nationalizing the energy industry.

http://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/canada-s-new-emissions-plan-to-be-tabled-in-parliament-today-1.1744490

#100 IHCTD9 on 03.30.22 at 10:04 am

#82 crowdedelevatorfartz on 03.29.22 at 10:35 pm

One wonders what actual govt monopoly car insurance would really cost if all the political smoke and mirrors were removed?
$800 per year?
$850?
_____

Probably quite a bit less I bet. I pay 650.00/yr in Ontario (private insurance), and presumably they’re making money off me. Although, it’s been a long time since I cost them anything for a claim, and I haven’t got a speeding ticket since the early 90’s.

#101 tbone on 03.30.22 at 10:06 am

Online banking is wonderful . Who needs a branch .
Last year i visited the branch to deposit a cheque .
They young lady informed me i could deposit it using the app on my phone and no need to make the trip.
I got my license sticker cheque yesterday and it worked flawlessly .

#102 Doug in London on 03.30.22 at 10:23 am

So does this inverted yield curve mean there will be a recession? I don’t know, but recall something I read back in the 1980s that said economists have successfully predicted 7 of the last 5 recessions.

#103 Dharma Bum on 03.30.22 at 10:28 am

#95 expat

Ukraine chooses wrong side of the history.
——————————————————————————————————–

Wouldn’t be the first time.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Collaboration_in_German-occupied_Ukraine

#104 crowdedelevatorfartz on 03.30.22 at 10:32 am

@#95 expatsy
“It is war of Russia, China and many other big countries against rotten, insane and perverted Anglo-Saxon Empire aka USA/Canada/UK and their western vassals.
In this war Anglo-Saxon evil Empire will be finally destroyed.
Ukraine chooses wrong side of the history.”

++++

Good to see Putin’s propagandists have succeeded at least once.
Don’t let the door leaving Canada hit you on the backside on the way “home”.

#105 IHCTD9 on 03.30.22 at 10:47 am

#97 IHCTD9 on 03.30.22 at 9:38 am
#84 Ponzius Pilatus on 03.29.22 at 10:49 pm

American made cars are junk.
____

I beg to differ. My two 3/4 ton GMC’s are 19 and 31 years old, and in perfect running condition.

I think the ’91 C2500 has a decade of use still in it -easy. I bought it from the estate of the original owner last year if you can believe it. The owner died before the truck did.
____

Also Ponzie, if Putin decides to hit North America with a massive EMP attack, an old mechanical diesel will still start up and drive away the next day. All those fancy new Audis will have dead ECU’s.

#106 KG on 03.30.22 at 10:54 am

I know Pierre. Apparently you do not. – Garth
‐‐—–
Expand, shall we ?

#107 Ustabe on 03.30.22 at 10:58 am

#97 IHCTD9 on 03.30.22 at 9:38 am

#84 Ponzius Pilatus on 03.29.22 at 10:49 pm

American made cars are junk.
____

I beg to differ. My two 3/4 ton GMC’s are 19 and 31 years old, and in perfect running condition.

I think the ’91 C2500 has a decade of use still in it -easy. I bought it from the estate of the original owner last year if you can believe it. The owner died before the truck did.

I think if the original statement was some American made cars are junk we might have something. Absolutes are no longer truisms unless you are taking the easy way out.

I, by choice, drive a nearly 20 year old Japanese SUV. I’ve had to replace what I call the jewelry…stuff that hangs of the engine like starters, radiator, fuel pump, valve cover gasket, etc. but it runs as new and remains rust free. The only thing I wish it had would be traction/stability control…oh well.

Nearly 350k on it yet there are legion who would have you believe that the Nissan line up is crap, the X Trail a nothing burger. My nothing burger has been to the Arctic Circle and beyond to the Arctic Ocean. Twice. Up innumerable private mountain mine access roads of very dubious maintenance to visit glaciers all over northern BC, Yukon and to a limited degree Northwest Territories. Try that in your Audi, eh?

#108 Ponzius Pilatus on 03.30.22 at 11:10 am

#101 tbone on 03.30.22 at 10:06 am
Online banking is wonderful . Who needs a branch .
Last year i visited the branch to deposit a cheque .
They young lady informed me i could deposit it using the app on my phone and no need to make the trip.
I got my license sticker cheque yesterday and it worked flawlessly .
——————-
Haha.
[email protected] won’t meet her cross sales target.
Goodbye, bonus.

#109 G on 03.30.22 at 11:11 am

Some might find these energy related links interesting.
Where and how realistic they could be will depend of course. And not sure what the plan is to deal with ice issue, though there is probable an easy fix, cost to be determined of course.

Energy Storage Breakthrough – Solid Hydrogen Explained Nov 9, 2021 12min
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=U7CCq4oBgw4

Why Aren’t Power Companies Building This Device Next To Every River in America? March 29, 2022 8min
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qhv74pdsmoE&t=2s

#110 Ponzius Pilatus on 03.30.22 at 11:16 am

From the “What a wonderful life” file:
American Astronaut arrives back on earth on a Russian spaceship.

#111 Ponzius Pilatus on 03.30.22 at 11:23 am

Saw the headline:
“The Slap that was heard around the World”.
Ah, the self centred Americans.
I bet, about 7,999,999,999 people on the planet don’t give a care.

#112 Sail Away on 03.30.22 at 11:27 am

#82 crowdedelevatorfartz on 03.29.22 at 10:35 pm
@#123 Lorne

“Strangely enough, with good management, ICBC is thriving and is able to return some of the $ you paid for your insurance. ”

——–

Only Horgie Porgie and Queen Christie know for sure since we don’t get to see the real numbers.

——–

Well… yeah. That’s the way monopolies work. Not profitable? Raise prices. It’s not like there’s any other option for the captive consumer.

Best business model ever.

#113 bdwy on 03.30.22 at 11:30 am

#84 Ponzius Pilatus on 03.29.22 at 10:49 pm
#76 TN
GM is offering 84 month new vehicle financing. Ho-ho-hold the payments. Your new car will be a worthless rusted junker by the time that’s up.
———————
Usually I don’t agree with your endless whining.
But this time you’re bang on.
American made cars are junk.

——————————————

easy there tiger.

I run 2 gm vehicles. one is 228 months old, the other is 204 months.

had them for a total of about 110 months combined. (9+years)

total cost of ALL repairs for both old vehicles over that time is far less than ONE water pump job on my bros 5yo audi.

heck, the truck purchase was close to the water pump price!

#114 Michael in-north-york on 03.30.22 at 11:35 am

#95 expat on 03.30.22 at 8:58 am
===

You want to destroy us, but preserve your own sore bum? You think the carnage won’t affect you? Think again.

#115 bdwy on 03.30.22 at 11:41 am

reliable transportation, towing and hauling is all i need.

when you are tall, smart , successful and good looking there is no need for a flashy car to impress!

remove 1000/mo from car expenses and retire years earlier.

#116 Escape from KANADSTAN on 03.30.22 at 11:46 am

https://nationalpost.com/opinion/rupa-subramanya-canadas-woke-liberal-government-is-driving-immigrants-away

When even the immigrants see this country for what it is, A GIANT SCAM.

YOU KNOW THE GAME IS OVER

BTW READ THE COMMENTS

#117 dragonfly58 on 03.30.22 at 11:50 am

Wife has an 09 Ford Ranger . Not 100 % sure where it is actually made . { Mexico ? } It’s been a very good little truck. Tows my tandem , flat deck , car trailer just fine as long as I don’t load it with too large a vehicle. 99% of the time I am just moving a British sports car and I can hardly tell loaded from unloaded. Just routine service, tires , brake linings in almost 300 k’s of use. Not even that bad on gas , small V6, 2 WD.

#118 expat on 03.30.22 at 12:14 pm

DELETED

#119 Ponzius Pilatus on 03.30.22 at 12:17 pm

Check out the “well endowed” Texan kid, that only a Texan parent can love.
All properly suited up.
https://www.wfaa.com/article/news/local/texas/elgin-texas-teen-new-truck-tornado-video/287-ecb883a2-4008-4cce-a975-455091b84b3f

#120 IHCTD9 on 03.30.22 at 12:21 pm

#117 dragonfly58 on 03.30.22 at 11:50 am
Wife has an 09 Ford Ranger . Not 100 % sure where it is actually made . { Mexico ? } It’s been a very good little truck. Tows my tandem , flat deck , car trailer just fine as long as I don’t load it with too large a vehicle. 99% of the time I am just moving a British sports car and I can hardly tell loaded from unloaded. Just routine service, tires , brake linings in almost 300 k’s of use. Not even that bad on gas , small V6, 2 WD.
____

Rangers are super popular. Got a bud who loves ’em. Simple reliable, easy on the wallet, and sized just right.

#121 expat on 03.30.22 at 12:23 pm

DELETED

#122 IHCTD9 on 03.30.22 at 12:46 pm

#107 Ustabe on 03.30.22 at 10:58 am

I, by choice, drive a nearly 20 year old Japanese SUV. I’ve had to replace what I call the jewelry…stuff that hangs of the engine like starters, radiator, fuel pump, valve cover gasket, etc. but it runs as new and remains rust free. The only thing I wish it had would be traction/stability control…oh well.

Nearly 350k on it yet there are legion who would have you believe that the Nissan line up is crap, the X Trail a nothing burger. My nothing burger has been to the Arctic Circle and beyond to the Arctic Ocean. Twice. Up innumerable private mountain mine access roads of very dubious maintenance to visit glaciers all over northern BC, Yukon and to a limited degree Northwest Territories. Try that in your Audi, eh?
____

Japanese stuff is great too, I just don’t like their full size truck stuff. Tacoma’s are very popular if you have the $$ to buy them. We’ve have nothing but Japanese machines for cars, ATV’s and motorcycles for near 20 years.

#123 Stone on 03.30.22 at 12:55 pm

#95 expat on 03.30.22 at 8:58 am
“Putin invaded Ukraine, levelled cities, displaced millions of innocents and caused tens of thousands of deaths (mostly Russian soldiers) and it’s the fault of the US? I think you are done here. – Garth”
————————————————–

Garth, you know a little and understand nothing in what happened in Ukraine, and spreading Ukrainian disinformation.
It is not war of Russia against Ukraine.
It is war of Russia, China and many other big countries against rotten, insane and perverted Anglo-Saxon Empire aka USA/Canada/UK and their western vassals.
In this war Anglo-Saxon evil Empire will be finally destroyed.
Ukraine chooses wrong side of the history.
PS. I’m not Russian and never live in Russia, but I underrstand Russian language.

———

Sooo…Expat is an expert on something he has never seen, never experienced, has no inkling on, and probably couldn’t find Russia or its neighbouring countries, let along Canada on a map.

I also “underrstand” the Russian language. I have google translate. I also do my best to spell check too.

Where are all these shills coming from? Or are they just bots?

#124 Stone on 03.30.22 at 12:56 pm

… alone.

Damn spellchecker. Lol

#125 Mattl on 03.30.22 at 1:01 pm

A troubled real estate market will not translate into a bad economy. – Garth

————————————————————-

Not sure how you decouple RE – which is almost 20% of GDP – from the economy. Consumer spending will be hit very hard by any negative impacts to RE. Interest rates increases are going to transfer spend from consumer good to debt financing.

Time will tell but I don’t understand your position here. RE has been the main economic driver the past decade, how does RE stumble and not take the economy with it?

Real estate will just stop going up, and fall a little or moderately, depending on the market. The impact on the economy will be minimal. The impact of overleveraged families will be huge. Prices will decline. – Garth

#126 Manowar on 03.30.22 at 1:15 pm

#40 Reality Check

You are talking about conspiracy theories lol, when In just 2 years Canada went from being one of the best places to live to a place where hunger, misery, unemployment, lack of productivity, food shortages, closed factories, domestic travel restrictions for individuals who don’t surender thier bodies to the state and big More social control and less freedom for Canadians.

You are the frog in the proverbial boiling pot……so happy I got the hell out in 2019

#127 Downward Slope on 03.30.22 at 1:35 pm

#117 dragonfly58 on 03.30.22 at 11:50 am
Wife has an 09 Ford Ranger . Not 100 % sure where it is actually made . { Mexico ? }

To find out where it was manufactured check the serial number.
https://www.edmunds.com/how-to/how-to-quickly-decode-your-vin.html#:~:text=In%20this%20group%2C%20the%20first,Sweden%20or%20Finland%20is%20Y.

#128 calgaryPhantom on 03.30.22 at 1:35 pm

#88 Phantom
“The real recession indicator is men’s underwear. When did you last buy one?”
+++

Where (wear?) on this planet can you purchase…. one pair of men’s underwear?
They usually are packed in double, quadruple packs with one hideous pair hidden in the middle. (I save the ugly pairs for the day Ponzie and I meet on one of his epic walks.)
The pair that most men wouldn’t even want to be found dead wearing….plaid.
Ponzie’s plaid pair.

————————————

Where on this planet you ask?
Your Mom’s!
(Please don’t slap me)

#129 Philco on 03.30.22 at 1:40 pm

DELETED

#130 Quintilian on 03.30.22 at 1:49 pm

“When even the immigrants see this country for what it is, A GIANT SCAM.

YOU KNOW THE GAME IS OVER

BTW READ THE COMMENTS”

Get your story straight and stay in your lane.

You squawk about too much immigration, then you criticize the government for not being yielding enough to the wants of the immigrants.

This is the Americanization of the right-wing press.
The Retrumplicans have infected the north.

#131 expat on 03.30.22 at 1:50 pm

Why Is the Canadian Real Estate Market So Insane?
Basically, because the whole country is a giant scam

https://survivingtomorrow.org/why-is-the-canadian-real-estate-market-so-insane-9354d4077693

#132 Mattl on 03.30.22 at 2:12 pm

#97 IHCTD9 on 03.30.22 at 9:38 am
#84 Ponzius Pilatus on 03.29.22 at 10:49 pm

American made cars are junk.
____

I beg to differ. My two 3/4 ton GMC’s are 19 and 31 years old, and in perfect running condition.

I think the ’91 C2500 has a decade of use still in it -easy. I bought it from the estate of the original owner last year if you can believe it. The owner died before the truck did.

———————————————————–

Yup, drive a 1998 12V Quad Cab, has 365K on the clock and will go for another 700K. Transmissions are suspect but a rebuild every 250K and you are GTG.

Oh, and it tows 10K pounds and gets 24MPG unloaded.

#133 expat on 03.30.22 at 2:22 pm

“Sooo…Expat is an expert on something he has never seen, never experienced, has no inkling on, and probably couldn’t find Russia or its neighbouring countries, let along Canada on a map.

#123 Stone on 03.30.22 at 12:55 pm”
——————————————————–

Stone – you are typical primitive ignorant kanadian.
Millions of people have been living in USSR, but not in Russia, but primitive “kanadians” from kanadastan do not understand the difference between USSR and Russia

#134 Concerned Citizen on 03.30.22 at 2:24 pm

“if CBs continue to be aggressive”

*****

Aggressive is not the word I would use. Outrageously negligent is far more accurate.

Rates at 0.25% with inflation raging – there’s not other word for it but negligent.

#135 Philco on 03.30.22 at 2:30 pm

#129 Philco on 03.30.22 at 1:40 pm
—————-
So BS?
I don’t think so.
I didn’t think it was possible to have a worse leader.
Got his back?

Any comment here that makes fun of public figures by misspelling their names, like six-year-olds do, will be deleted. – Garth

#136 jess on 03.30.22 at 2:36 pm

plot to overturn the election frontline.org
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=E7Zdt3b03fI

Russian oligarch puts million-dollar bounty on Vladimir Putin’s head | 60 Minutes Australia
5,986,111 views
Mar 13, 2022

fever indicator?
https://www.dallasfed.org/research/economics/2021/0928

https://www.pbs.org/wgbh/frontline/

#137 mike from mtl on 03.30.22 at 2:39 pm

#131 expat on 03.30.22 at 1:50 pm
Why Is the Canadian Real Estate Market So Insane?
Basically, because the whole country is a giant scam

+1 All the usual points brought up but nothing will ever be done to address them.

I don’t think your average Lib voter would have the honesty (or humour) to even consider, Canada has problems. This was written 10 years ago but could have been yesterday, structural issues never go away.

https://happierabroad.com/forum/viewtopic.php?t=17072

#138 Sail Away on 03.30.22 at 2:55 pm

Haha- called it 2 years ago:

******

#62 Sail Away on 07.23.20 at 5:46 pm
An important question for cowboys today is which company will secure Tesla’s giant nickel contract?
I’m thinking BHP and Vale are front-runners.

******

BHP signed their Tesla nickel contract July 2021, and it looks like Vale has now done the same. For Vale, the nickel will be coming from Canada:

Today: https://nypost.com/2022/03/30/tesla-signs-secret-nickel-supply-deal-with-brazils-vale-report/

#139 Mattl on 03.30.22 at 3:05 pm

Real estate will just stop going up, and fall a little or moderately, depending on the market. The impact on the economy will be minimal. The impact of overleveraged families will be huge. Prices will decline. – Garth

————————————————————–

Fair enough, I thought you were anticipating more then just a cooling off / moderate correction to RE values.

I think it will be much worse, that the correction will be steep. If prices just level off, I’m not sure many folks will be in trouble considering the 2T in mortgage debt is backed by 6T in equity.

#140 -=withwings=- on 03.30.22 at 3:12 pm

Mortgage broker Ron Butler says the slowdown has started. Originations are falling. Buyers are backing off. Many who continue to seek financing are going variable – gambling.

You’ve been saying this since 2009. There is no slowdown, market has levelled off, this is the new normal.

Statements are correct. – Garth

#141 Linda on 03.30.22 at 3:23 pm

#50 ‘Quint’ – usurious rents for young people? First, if a landlord is charging more than market value the solution is to try to find more affordable accommodations. Second, as outlined by Garth on this very blog most landlords are or have been subsidizing their tenants, as the rent collected isn’t covering the costs of ownership. Given the rise in prices for goods/services, the costs associated with ownership have increased & in order to continue to operate at a profit – being a landlord is a business, not a charity – those costs will eventually be passed on to the customers.

#142 Michael in-north-york on 03.30.22 at 3:55 pm

#133 expat on 03.30.22 at 2:22 pm
Stone – you are typical primitive ignorant kanadian.
===

If you think we are primitive, then what the heck are you doing here? Go away, hang out with the geniuses like yourself who deserve you company.

You won’t be missed here.

#143 Cici on 03.30.22 at 4:57 pm

“The government wants higher densities along with rezoning of peaceful, leafy, expensive hoods to allow multi-unit structures.”
_____________________________________________

This is the #1 reason why I’m afraid to buy. The peaceful, leafy and expensive hood I’m currently renting in has literally been destroyed in the last few years I’ve been here, to the point I went to get the heck out ASAP.

In the last year, they’ve put up three huge condo towers in what once was a residential area safe for children, but now just crossing the street is a death wish and even more condo towers are coming down the pipeline. Soon, there will be more huge, ugly new builds than single family homes in this area, which doesn’t have the roads or other infrastructure to safely support all this excessive new development.

As a proud N.I.M.B.Y, I’m feeling squeezed out and contemplating an eventual move to the Far North but maybe in the opposite direction or even beyond the border. In the meantime, while waiting to see how it all pans out, I’ll continue to rent for the mobility.

#144 Linda on 03.30.22 at 6:16 pm

#143 ‘Cici’ – you make some excellent points. First, the available infrastructure may not support all the new density. Second, the very things that attract buyers to ‘hot’ neighborhoods – leafy boulevards, quiet traffic, attractive dwellings etc. or for those more hip proximity to trendy shops, restaurants, yoga studios & the like – are exactly what doesn’t survive come the great densification. Parking in particular becomes an issue, let alone dodging the increase in traffic. The greatest irony in my opinion is the promotion of densification as a means of providing housing affordability. Except those new builds frequently come with a staggering price point beyond the reach of those searching for affordable housing of any sort. The cost should be a guarantee of quality; sadly it is all too often the opposite. Graffiti in the form of buildings but without the artistic content. Gah.