Rattle your walls

What does the new lefty Liberal New Democratic government mean for the real estate market?

Lots, apparently. Think Gordon Grekko meeting Karl Marx. The last unbridled bastion of rugged individualistic capitalism being smacked down by an entire battalion of Karens. It’s coming. Soon, I hear.

The Faustian deal between Trudeau and Singh has totally opened the door for a radical housing agenda. The LNDPers have vowed to “tackle the financialization of the housing market by 2023,” and that means more government regulation and distortion of an asset class now the major plaything of the masses.

Not facing defeat on any budget, motion or confidence vote until 2025, the guys in charge are suddenly free to pursue the hopeless agenda of making sure everybody who wants to own property, can. That this is happening after many markets have seen 40-50% year/year price increases and the average detached has passed $2 million in the GTA and LM suggests the barn door was long ago left open. This market is ripe for correction since so few people can afford it. Meanwhile we’ve entered into a multi-year rate tightening cycle as desperate CBs try to beat inflation into submission. What a combo. Sure hope you didn’t just buy a slanty semi for $1.9 million.

Here’s what we hear is coming. First, new investors will be whacked.

Today you can buy a condo or a house for speculation or rental with a 20% down payment and finance everything. People with existing real estate equity can borrow against it for the deposit, then mortgage the rest. Bingo. 100% debt. Tenants pay most of the overhead. Your investment grows by 30% a year. Bidda-badda-boom.

Well, kiss those days goodbye.

The feds are (apparently) about to mandate a minimum down payment of 35% – a significant increase. More consequently, you’ll have to use actual money. The use of HELOC funds as a source of that down payment will be banned (as this blog told you would be the case a few months ago). Also verboten will be cash that comes from any kind of borrowing, from a gift or a loan against another investment property.

Given that an estimated 25% of all real estate transactions involve investors rather than end-users, this impacts a huge swath of the market. In fact, in Toronto and Vancouver it’s estimated 50% of condo sales are to those with no intention of living there. It’s big news. Once sales slow dramatically, with investors knocked out on their ears, the psychological effect could be profound.

There’s more.

The LNDPers will also be targeting REITs which own residential units. Totally dumb, but consistent. Some of the best LLs in Canada are the institutional guys who provide stable, long-term rental housing and have deep pockets to maintain buildings to a far better standard than the mom-&-pops. But in the lexicon of the left, corporate ownership of any residential real estate is bad, so the handcuffs are coming out.

There’s more. Look to a renewal of the Lib’s anti-flipping tax, which will suck away profits on any home owned for less than a year – further depressing sales activity. Additionally there’s a homeowners bill of rights in the works, which will ban blind bidding, make a home inspection mandatory, prevent agents from repping both sides of a deal, give price history transparency, enshrine the ability to defer mortgage payments during life events and maybe contain a BC-style cooling-off period after an offer’s been accepted.

Some of that stuff is good. Overdue. Yippee. But it’s all going to rattle the market at the same time a lot of players are knocked out, and just as mortgage rates are on a journey to doubling. Given the affordability wall we’ve already hit, how could we expect anything but lower sales, then lower valuations?

Unknown is whether that crazy FHSA account – allowing tax-deductible down payments – will be created. Or if the Trudeau election pledge of raising the CMHC borrowing cap to $1.25 million will be enacted. Or if the socialists now running Canada will acquiesce to demands from the lending industry and bring back 30-year amortizations.

Oh, by the way, a new report from Capital Economics says Canadian real estate is pooched. Central bank rate hikes – now started and 100% certain to continue – on their own will bring consequences.

“Can the housing market withstand a return to pre-pandemic mortgage rates, even though prices have risen by more than 50 per cent in the interim? The answer is a firm ‘no’. With house prices now so elevated versus traditional valuation metrics, the risk is that an initial decline could trigger a downward spiral of lower house prices and lower house price expectations.”

But keep your cool. You could live in Kyiv.

About the picture: “Your blog saved me a lot on my mortgage,” writes Jamie, “when I nervously considered fixed or variable during the 7% days (you made a good case for variable), and again when renewal time came around in the 5.5% days (variable again).  Now the former mortgage monthly goes into the B&D. The beast in the photo is Maggie, a black lab who does NOT retrieve but is an amazing, self-taught pointer, and who also doubles as a paper shredder.  Just a few months old in this photo, she is now 3 years old and really missing the WFH days, even though my wife is home with her all day long…”

149 comments ↓

#1 dragonfly58 on 03.24.22 at 4:19 pm

Was it just me ? Or did J.T. confuse the NATO meeting with the Glasgow Conference ?

#2 red falcon on 03.24.22 at 4:20 pm

wow, interesting turn of events! Now there will be no UPpa Uppa Uppa coming out anymore huh? and to think Heloc’s will be a thing of the past for re-investing….
but tell me, will borrowing from the Heloc to invest in stocks still be be kosher?

Kosher Uppa!

#3 sven on 03.24.22 at 4:22 pm

is the 35% down payment only for investment properties? wouldn’t apply to primary residence purchases?

#4 T-DOT on 03.24.22 at 4:26 pm

I had 130k of RRSP room this year. Had my best year ever in sales and dropped 90k into it. I was in the elite tax bracket this year so JT is going to write me a cheque for around 55k. Kick back will be going to top up the 20k room I have in the tfsa. Thanks for the advice Garth and god bless the RRSP!

#5 Victor Maitland on 03.24.22 at 4:28 pm

How many rate hikes before Jag makes it a condition of his continued support that the Finance Minister must order the BoC to “stop hurting ordinary families”? I doubt very much the NDP feels a commitment to the idea of central bank independence. We’d best get used to the higher inflation. It’s going to be with us for a while.

#6 Winterpeg on 03.24.22 at 4:29 pm

As you’ve mentioned often, real estate is local.
Will these dynamics play out in blander markets such as Regina and Winnipeg where prices have jumped, but not as crazily?

#7 Andrewski on 03.24.22 at 4:29 pm

Heartbreaking to see what’s happening in the Ukraine. My Mom was born in Lwow (part of Poland then) almost 100 years ago & it’s better that she has passed away than to see the bloodshed & devastation!

#8 Trudeau-Mr-Charmer on 03.24.22 at 4:32 pm

I think Trudeau and Singh had a conversation like this:

“Boy, oh, boy… Do I **HATE** question period”, says Trudeau to Singh, “Having to stand up and explain spending priorities, massive debt financing, military procurement, housing policy debacles, ethics violations, etc… I get quite hot-headed when they yell across the aisle…”

Singh: “Howsabout we have a pact: A few lefty policies for me, and we both spend our spring and summer away from this place. No pesky questions, lots of time at the beach, early summer!”

Trudeau: “Let’s do a photo op to announce more unfunded policy goodies, I like those!”

Singh: “Agreed! Lazy spring and summer, here we come!”

#9 Tax the Poor on 03.24.22 at 4:33 pm

I remember a social worker in Ontario Works telling a guy that his gig earnings were to be clawed back, and that he was lamenting that he will not afford rent for his basement room if his OW cheque was clawed back. He will be evicted and left homeless on the streets.

The caseworker gave the homeless guy a paper document, told him that the waitlist for subsidized housing (was in 2019), fifteen years in the GTA.

#10 don't poke the bear on 03.24.22 at 4:35 pm

the state of the markets today…

Sir about that nickel you bought from us. Well, you didn’t actually buy it. The guy who sold it didn’t own it but we let him sell it so he can make money when you lose money, but in this case you made money, and he lost more money than he has, and, well, we hope you understand.

coming to more and more commodities soon. markets will freeze. especially if the big trading houses go bust.

what a time to be alive.

#11 Soviet Capitalist on 03.24.22 at 4:40 pm

Given the ‘good intentions’ of our leadership, many of us will probably want to live in Kiev within a decade.

#12 wallflower on 03.24.22 at 4:40 pm

…estimated 50% of condo sales are to those with no intention of living there…

at LEAST 50% specuvestors in all the new build condos since 2017 in my Ontariowe city… many now on rental queues and not moving

#13 Neo on 03.24.22 at 4:41 pm

Seems a lot easier to just get a NAFTA visa and move to a legitimate country.

https://travel.state.gov/content/travel/en/us-visas/employment/visas-canadian-mexican-nafta-professional-workers.html

Thats a long list of professions.

Hotel Managers
Software Engineers
Social Worker
Dentist
Biologist
Animal Breeder
Registered nurse
Interior Designer
Graphic Designer
Accountant

And many more…

https://www.nafsa.org/_/file/_/amresource/8cfr2146.htm

Let the brain drain begin. Lots of mom and pop housing investors left here to prop up the economy.

#14 sunpack on 03.24.22 at 4:44 pm

I do like the end of blind bidding. However, I was recently on an auction site that was selling a condo in downtown Toronto (previously old Regent Park – government housing). The auction was transparent. You can see everyone’s bid. The bidding started at $499,999 and the 1 bedroom + 1 parking and locker and an extremely small den went for $710,000. Last year at the same time a similar unit went for $550,000. So even if blind bidding ends the human condition to win at all costs to purchase will still be a driving factor. Still will be a lot of buyer’s remorse.

#15 Finally on 03.24.22 at 4:45 pm

Even though prices are still up, listings down, and people desperate to buy while nothing is getting built, we can now finally.. FINALLY say that the housing market is pooched. Prices haven’t come down yet, and we have predicting it for the past fifteen years, but we have every reason to believe we are now correct. Our long history of being horribly incorrect is not something you should be concerned about.

#16 Diamond Dog on 03.24.22 at 4:45 pm

Given the affordability wall we’ve already hit, how could we expect anything but lower sales, then lower valuations? – Garth

That’s the point though isn’t it. And, like you say, the barn door has been open for a while now. The Libs should have muted housing years ago but failed to act, so here we are.

Essentially the damage to the housing market i.e. whopper housing bubble is already done. The Fed has made clear (finally) that rate hikes will happen 6 more times this year with the chance of .5’ers in the mix. We are looking at a 2% Fed rate or higher by year’s end. 3% mortgages today will be 5% by year’s end with the government discouraging reckless over extension which of course, comes way too late, a theme oft noted here on Greater Fool.

Plus, we’ve got a recession coming in the U.S. . It’s as certain as every other time inflation has popped forcing the Fed to act with higher rates. Judging by how high inflation is now, it will be a whopper. When it hits, recession here is certain as the bottom falls out of housing in Canada from higher rates as well as bruised commodities and then some.

https://allstarcharts.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/07/7-23-11-10-yr-yields-FFR-and-inflation.jpg

In short, housing is screwed. New home buyers should in general, cool their hormones and wait. With patience, comes reward.

We can almost hear it now right, the whining. “Ewe, I missed out and now have to suffer for the opulent greed of the previous gen”. They just don’t quite get it yet:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ATKf5Uy77aY

#17 Dougie on 03.24.22 at 4:46 pm

LLs?

Landlords. – Garth

#18 KT on 03.24.22 at 4:48 pm

So not a good time to be buying REITs now?

#19 Cheese on 03.24.22 at 4:48 pm

So offload the large holding of Rio-Can now? They just started diversifying into nice residential towers too :(

#20 Howard on 03.24.22 at 4:50 pm

There were some details released about the government dental scheme.

Apparently, it will initially be available only to seniors and under-18s. Eventually it will be expanded to everyone with a household income under $90K.

So the middle class gets to pay for ANOTHER entitlement that they’re not allowed to use. Another transfer of wealth from taxpayers to predominantly non-taxpayers.

As Garth frequently points out and even Trudeau has admitted, the bottom 40% of households pay nothing in net tax when considering what they get back.

https://financialpost.com/personal-finance/taxes/trudeau-is-right-40-of-canadians-dont-pay-income-taxes-which-means-someone-else-is-picking-up-the-bill

The kicker? Under this dental scheme which is means-tested by income (not wealth), retired seniors in $20 million mini-castles will get their caps and crowns paid for by the taxpayer. Meanwhile, the 30-something couple with two kids and household income of $95k, struggling with soaring food, gas, and shelter costs, have to pay in full.

#21 Søren Angst on 03.24.22 at 4:51 pm

“…how could we expect anything but lower sales, then lower valuations?”

Precious.

A nation of Gollum’s.

#22 RichardTO on 03.24.22 at 4:53 pm

Is it a violation of existing or possible future sanctions for Western countries to purchase rubles in the first place? If so, Russia may be forcing the issue here. If gas has to be paid for in rubles, and Europe needs gas to function at all, and if the US declares it illegal to buy rubles to pay for gas, then we see a huge conflict on the horizon between Europe’s ability to keep its people heated and fed and their obeisance to US dictates.

#23 Howard on 03.24.22 at 4:56 pm

The use of HELOC funds as a source of that down payment will be banned (as this blog told you would be the case a few months ago).

—————————————-

According to some mortgage bros on Twitter, there is a workaround for this. If you transfer the HELOC cash into a savings account and leave it there for 90 days, it is considered “savings” and can be used as a DP under such rules.

Then it’s just non-deductible debt. – Garth

#24 Faron on 03.24.22 at 4:57 pm

“Socialists” huh. Last I checked, Canada is a social democracy somewhere right of scandanavian countries and NZ that are also social democracies. Mainstreaming the casting of the center-left LNDP as left/far-left is one way to bring PPC junk into the mainstream. I’m surprised to see this.

Glad to see any and all measures to cripple financialization of housing. Simplistic to say, but roofs over heads should not be an investment vehicle of any kind. How it is regulated is a very difficult question but is worth doing. There are numerous examples and abundant economic research. Finally, we may have the political will.

Of relevance to RE more broadly, watch the ETF XHB as a canary in the HELOC mine. Peaked in late 2021. If you are looking for a way to short RE, that’s an option.

Now, having commented on today’s topic, I feel free to mention something off topic.

Ran into a friend of the designer of my boat as I was departing Wallace Island recently. Super nice couple. Late 60s. Skittish but beautiful and friendly dog.Hoping to run into them again next week in the area.

Some faces are bright, kind and warm. Wrinkles don’t hurt the expression of such. HAGW everyone. I’m up to Mt Cain. Chances of winding up drunk wearing a viking helmet are above average.

#25 Millennial 1%er on 03.24.22 at 4:59 pm

20% => 35%? doesn’t affect me, I’m flush

#26 Søren Angst on 03.24.22 at 4:59 pm

Canada.

Did you know you had a Beatified PM according to CTV?

https://twitter.com/CTVNews/status/1506918917473718278

My take:

https://twitter.com/bsant54/status/1507099081218342916

————-

Really CTV, you need to lay off the 420.

All he gets here in the EU, at the mere mention of his name, is an eye roll.

#27 Søren Angst on 03.24.22 at 5:11 pm

#22 RichardTO

Again, Twitter accounts you need to stop reading that are FAKE news:

President of Russia
@KremlinRussia_E

РИА Новости
@rianru

Телеканал Царьград
@tsargradtv

Газета.Ru
@GazetaRu

Первый канал Новости
@1tvru_news

And please tell Zakharova at

MFA Russia
@mfa_russia
[Unfollow them to]

she missed her AA Meeting according to Navalny’s lawyer whom you SHOULD follow:

Соболь Любовь
@SobolLubov

As for the EU, you know nothing.

#28 IHCTD9 on 03.24.22 at 5:20 pm

#20 Howard on 03.24.22 at 4:50 pm

The kicker? Under this dental scheme which is means-tested by income (not wealth), retired seniors in $20 million mini-castles will get their caps and crowns paid for by the taxpayer
—————-

I seriously doubt it. A crown runs 1500.00+, and even Ms. IH’s overly generous government dental benefits do not cover crowns. No, this handout will cover fillings (300.00), cleanings (150.00), and extractions (125.00) at a cost of probably billions. Why billions? Because the day after the government agrees to cover all these expenses, a filling will run 600, cleanings 300, and extractions 250. We’ve seen this act before…

#29 alexinvestor on 03.24.22 at 5:22 pm

The question is whether more government regulation or distortion increases or decreases the price of real estate. I’m guessing the former. All the government has to do is get rid of CMHC and make sure that mortgage loans are market priced. But alas, these guys never learn.

#30 Carlos El Magnifico on 03.24.22 at 5:25 pm

What does a typical housing crash look like given housing is a necessity for us all? Do sales just suddenly evaporate and prices plunge? Does peak to trough typically take weeks, months or years? Hard to imagine a scenario where Canadian real estate would plunge any meaningful amount in a short period of time.

When prices come down people stop buying. When prices rise the bidders pile on. Never fails. – Garth

#31 yvr_lurker on 03.24.22 at 5:25 pm

With regards to enhanced benefits for children of low income families, I have no grudge on paying a little more tax if they get free dental coverage. I would much rather help the next generation who need it that to give significantly expanded coverage to senior citizens who have had a lifetime to try to amass some savings (in decades where it was much easier to do so) so as to not be exclusively reliant on CPP and OAS. If you are 65+ and are in a financial crunch, you should be looking carefully in the mirror and not clamouring for more benefits. You’ve had your day…

#32 Lumber on 03.24.22 at 5:31 pm

I’ve got an unexpected inheritance windfall, and was about to try the investment rental property game (seems like I might be one of the few who soon could). But with tenant headaches and seemingly no future upside, think I might instead buy a boat and throw it into a hole on the water. At least I may have some fun with it…..

#33 Brave New World Order on 03.24.22 at 5:35 pm

Freeland is coming after your bank accounts next. You will own nothing and be happy by force.

#34 Michael in-north-york on 03.24.22 at 5:38 pm

#24 Faron on 03.24.22 at 4:57 pm

“Socialists” huh. Last I checked, Canada is a social democracy somewhere right of scandanavian countries and NZ that are also social democracies.
===

That’s fine. But the Scandinavian countries used to have balanced budgets pre-covid. If they can subsidize their citizens without creating mountains of public debt, good for them.

#35 Linda on 03.24.22 at 5:42 pm

‘Maggie’ is a cutie:)

Regarding housing affordability in Canada. Insofar as I can make out, ‘affordable’ housing has long since ceased to exist anywhere in the GTA or YVR areas of Canada. The great exodus during Covid ensured housing prices in many areas jumped substantially, pricing out those whose household incomes fell into the lower end of the economic scale. Renters did not escape the price escalation. The impact was especially severe in previously affordable exurban/rural locales, where the housing supply was limited even before the deluge of newcomers.

So how does this play out? Let’s say the Libs/NDP enact legislation that makes being a landlord of any sort even less appealing than it is now. So owners try to offload their properties. Given the impending legislation, credit tightening etc. most will likely end up selling at a loss – IF they can sell at all. If properties are valued at $2 million plus, even a 50% reduction in value is still not in any way ‘affordable’ when the average household income in Canada is $65K. While some of the proposed measures will be a good thing – like the banning of blind bidding – I think it more likely the result will be an early onset of fiscal carnage.

#36 crowdedelevatorfartz on 03.24.22 at 5:44 pm

@#26 Soren.
“All he gets here in the EU, at the mere mention of his name, is an eye roll.”

+++

Yep.
Trudeau’s speech to the EU Parliament was a non event.
Barely anyone in the room.
Quite a snub.
Everyone is tired of his breathless , wheezing, politically correct lecturing.

Was he even allowed anywhere near Biden during the NATO conference “big boy” scrum….or was it for adults only?

#37 Frankie on 03.24.22 at 5:45 pm

When do these new rules come into effect. So should I wait to purchase a condo in downtown Toronto. Thanks.

#38 Peter in Toronto on 03.24.22 at 5:51 pm

#27 Søren Angst on 03.24.22 at 5:11 pm

Yeah, nah, pal, I’m not seeing any merit to your little strawman.
Where’s your credibility? Where’s your argument?

#39 Amok on 03.24.22 at 5:52 pm

“ The feds are (apparently) about to mandate a minimum down payment of 35% – a significant increase. More consequently, you’ll have to use actual money. The use of HELOC funds as a source of that down payment will be banned”

GOOD!
FINALLY!

Glad that the parliamentary democracy is representing the majority of people who voted. The NDP/Liberal deal is exactly how government should work, and there are many precedents for such deals, no matter how many false adjectives you throw at it, Garth. The whining doesn’t suit you.

#40 Michael in-north-york on 03.24.22 at 5:52 pm

Some of the expected measures are reasonable, no matter which government implements them.

Flippers tax – yes. Price history transparency – yes. Loaned money not acceptable as a downpayment – definitely yes, doing so means you don’t really have any skin in the game.

Other measures are either stupid or difficult to enforce. Why can’t a gift be used as downpayment? Once a gift is given, it is you money, same way as money you earned and saved yourself. And, hard to enforce: let’s say mom and pop pay 100% of the kid’s grocery bills for a year, and the kid saves 100% of their salary. Still a gift, not traceable.

#41 Dee on 03.24.22 at 5:53 pm

Gas at $3 to 4 a liter, all other energy costs up at least 50% and all you food costs double. I hope you like the LNDP new socialist party.

#42 TurnerNation on 03.24.22 at 5:57 pm

Life in Kanada. Gov’t really wants 100% taxation on us.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/victoria-reconciliation-fund-1.6394419
“Homeowners in Victoria could soon have the option to voluntarily add between five and 10 per cent to their annual property tax bill as a contribution to a reconciliation fund for local Indigenous nations, says Mayor Lisa Helps.”


— Almost back to normal.
Exactly what the global government wishes to happen. A dumbed down — and drugged up — populice. Easy pickings.

https://www.cp24.com/mobile/news/tdsb-raises-concerns-about-extraordinary-developmental-needs-of-incoming-kindergarteners-due-to-covid-19-asks-for-additional-eces-1.5833360
“The chair of the Toronto District School Board is expressing concerns about the “extraordinary developmental needs” of incoming Kindergarten students who he says will have spent “the vast majority of their existence living through the COVID-19 pandemic” by the time classes start in the fall.”


— Public health yo. Much green to be made. Why this it is being dragged out in Kanada for so long.
Just this week I posted that long term contracts have been signed.

.Jerry Dias accepted money from COVID-19 rapid test supplier, Unifor alleges Unifor says former president Jerry Dias engaged in a number of ethical breaches, including accepting $50,000 from a supplier of COVID-19 rapid test kits that he promoted to employers of Unifor members, several of whom purchased those test kits. (ctvnews.ca)

#43 Hurtin' Albertan on 03.24.22 at 5:58 pm

I’m tempted to look into real estate far from nuclear targets or fall-out zones.

I am worried about Putin’s exit strategy (unless someone takes care of him for us).

As Russia’s failures mount in its war against Ukraine, can Biden prevent an isolated Putin from doing the unthinkable?

“War has a natural momentum; it’s easy to start, easy to escalate, and hard to turn off. And once it’s underway, commanders use the weapons at hand. Facing defeat, they’re unlikely to leave even extreme weapons unused if they’re available. Most worrying of all is the fact that wartime leaders tend to dramatically misunderstand the circumstances they face, increasing the risks of miscalculation or accidental escalation.”

https://www.wired.com/story/biden-putin-russia-lose-ukraine-war/

Russia’s president has only bad options left, which makes him even more dangerous:

https://www.haaretz.com/us-news/putin-needs-a-golden-bridge-out-of-ukraine-but-isn-t-ready-for-it-yet-1.10673656

https://thehill.com/opinion/international/596330-the-west-must-offer-putin-a-golden-bridge-out-of-conflict

#44 I don’t know on 03.24.22 at 6:03 pm

5 Finally on 03.24.22 at 4:45 pm

I don’t think so.

Maybe highly speculative investments like condos will stagnant a bit. But single family houses in urban areas?

Nope.

Affordability isn’t going to get better. Actually it’s about the get worse. Most people are priced out in this domain, but it doesn’t matter because the incredible lack of supply will ensure only those that can afford homes will continue to buy.

Rates aren’t going anywhere near as high as everyone thinks, as well.

You buy dirt when you can afford. If you are waiting for the 80’s to return (when almost the same number of SFD homes were available to a population that was 15 million less), you may be disappointed.

Especially with an entire generation entering family formation mode, and after a 15 years of price appreciation.

Almost everyone I know who bought a house did so to raise a family. They aren’t moving any time soon.

IDK

#45 don't poke the bear on 03.24.22 at 6:05 pm

#22 RichardTO on 03.24.22 at 4:53 pm
_________________________________________

what our idiotic leaders don’t understand, is that renewables (solar, wind) are completely useless to power the world.

they are in for a real shock this year when crude climbs upwards of $200/bbl and nat gas in North America skyrockets as we start to divert supplies to Europe to help them out.

we’ve neglected securing our resources and outsourced to Russia, Saudis, and other countries that pretty much hate us…

the truth is, We are truly governed by idiots.

instead of developing our own natural resources, we’d rather support dictators in Russia and the middle east.

again.

We are truly governed by idiots.

#46 Quintilian on 03.24.22 at 6:12 pm

Victor Maitland

“I doubt very much the NDP feels a commitment to the idea of central bank independence. We’d best get used to the higher inflation. It’s going to be with us for a while.”

Do you honestly think central bankers are independent?
If so, how might you explain negative interest rates for a couple of decades, and in sync with most western developed economies.

Coincidence?

Maybe, but I doubt it.

#47 Ponzius Pilatus on 03.24.22 at 6:14 pm

#182 Uncle Thomas on 03.24.22 at 5:03 pm
As Jugmeat Sing says “”From each according to his ability, to each according to his needs” or was it Karl Marx?

I need a big house and a new SUV. A big screen TV would also be nice.
————–
Silly boy,
Like so many posters here, you’re onfusing wants with needs.
Time to revisit Maslow’s Hierarchy of Needs.

#48 The West on 03.24.22 at 6:22 pm

35% down to purchase a house?!

Now we’re talking!

If this actually happens, it would be great news for the savers and its about time!

#49 Ponzius Pilatus on 03.24.22 at 6:26 pm

#13 Neo on 03.24.22 at 4:41 pm
Seems a lot easier to just get a NAFTA visa and move to a legitimate country.

https://travel.state.gov/content/travel/en/us-visas/employment/visas-canadian-mexican-nafta-professional-workers.html

Thats a long list of professions.

Hotel Managers
Software Engineers
Social Worker
Dentist
Biologist
Animal Breeder
Registered nurse
Interior Designer
Graphic Designer
Accountant

And many more…
——————-
“Legitimate Countries”?
Care to give some examples?
And I resent that Accountants are lumped in with Animal Breeders.
It’s like being lumped in with Sailo.

C

#50 XEQT and chill on 03.24.22 at 6:32 pm

“The feds are (apparently) about to mandate a minimum down payment of 35% – a significant increase. ”

It’s hard to believe they would actually do this. Minimum down is 5%, it would make more sense to mandate 20%, then boost it later depending on the outcome of 20%.

Anyways, I’ve long thought if you can’t afford 20% down you can’t afford to buy…

#51 PeterfromCalgary on 03.24.22 at 6:43 pm

Beware of the Ghost of Paul Volcker! It’s more scary than Stephen King.

#52 Sam on 03.24.22 at 6:47 pm

If prices come down won’t that make it easier to buy investment properties with 35% down since you’ll need a lower down payment anyhow? I don’t see any of this impacting negatively and creating supply and lowering demand. If anything, it’ll likely make it a positive cash flow property so more investors will line up. Real estate is too lucrative in Canada.

Investors buy properties for capital gains, not to subsidize renters. – Garth

#53 Ponzius Pilatus on 03.24.22 at 6:50 pm

As Faron points out, Canada is pretty much in line with modern Western Social Democracies.
So, it’s not that they are trail blazers here.
Right now the ZEIGEIST in the West is favoring a shift to the political left.
So, what can a conservative voter do?
Probably not much right now, aside from waiting for the pendulum to swing their way.
Or letting steam off on this blog.
Or maybe joining another Freedom Convoy.
Or moving to a more “legitimate country”.

#54 Ponzius Pilatus on 03.24.22 at 6:56 pm

#40 Dee on 03.24.22 at 5:53 pm
Gas at $3 to 4 a liter, all other energy costs up at least 50% and all you food costs double. I hope you like the LNDP new socialist party.
————-
Thanks for reminding me.
Regular in Vanvouver is 1.98.
But Diesel is at 2.29!!
What’s going on?
How are the DuraMax owners out there coping?

#55 Concerned Citizen on 03.24.22 at 7:02 pm

“Meanwhile we’ve entered into a multi-year rate tightening cycle as desperate CBs try to beat inflation into submission.”

Garth, the Fed is so desperate, it has rates at 0.25% in the face of 8% inflation (15% using the inflation calculation methodology of the 70s) and has continued to increase its balance the last two weeks (even after QE was supposed to have ended). Can you imagine the uproad in the 70s if the Fed had rates at 0.25% with inflation raging at 17%?

It seems to me that if we go by their actions rather than their words, they’re desperate for even more inflation. If they were desperate to control inflation, real rates would be positive and the balance sheet would be $5 trillion instead of $9 trillion, and declining rapidly. Of course, that would mean the S&P 500 trading at 2,500 rather than 4,500, so it will never happen.

Western central banks have completely abandoned their official responsibility to maintain price stability. They talk a good game to try and placate the masses, but it’s clear from their actions what their true objectives are.

#56 cuke and tomato picker on 03.24.22 at 7:03 pm

If you google CBC NEWS OTTAWA you can read about
a man by the name of Martin JOESPH ANGLEHART who
lost virtually everything he owned by support the FREEDOM CONVOY in Ottawa.

#57 Lauren on 03.24.22 at 7:05 pm

If you already own property, you just need to rent it out while you buy another to live in for your principal residence and only have to put 5% down.

Government always leaves a back door open.

What a sideshow this country’s turned into. Does no one care about debt, clean drinking water, or transit?

And whatever happened to the Lib’s tax on bank profits?

#58 Observer on 03.24.22 at 7:07 pm

#15 Finally on 03.24.22 at 4:45 pm
Even though prices are still up, listings down, and people desperate to buy while nothing is getting built, we can now finally.. FINALLY say that the housing market is pooched. Prices haven’t come down yet, and we have predicting it for the past fifteen years, but we have every reason to believe we are now correct. Our long history of being horribly incorrect is not something you should be concerned about.

^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^

History isn’t what is happening now.

#59 Michael in-north-york on 03.24.22 at 7:08 pm

#37 Peter in Toronto on 03.24.22 at 5:51 pm

#27 Søren Angst on 03.24.22 at 5:11 pm

Yeah, nah, pal, I’m not seeing any merit to your little strawman.
Where’s your credibility? Where’s your argument?
===

Who are you to ask? Nobody thinks you are credible, pseudopeter. You are just yapping something meek and silly.

#60 Shawn on 03.24.22 at 7:11 pm

Young People Kicked in the … Teeth?

#20 Howard on 03.24.22 at 4:50 pm

The kicker? Under this dental scheme which is means-tested by income (not wealth), retired seniors in $20 million mini-castles will get their caps and crowns paid for by the taxpayer. Meanwhile, the 30-something couple with two kids and household income of $95k, struggling with soaring food, gas, and shelter costs, have to pay in full.

**************************
Agreed, bull shit to give free dental to wealthy seniors with incomes under $90k

Meanwhile we get this fantasy that a couple with kids is somehow well off if they make $95k between the two of them.

Always pandering to the lowest common denominator.

#61 pPrasseur on 03.24.22 at 7:12 pm

The feds are (apparently) about to mandate a minimum down payment of 35% – a significant increase.
etc…

Reminds me of the 3 red lines the CCP introduced for RE developers in China.

Too little too late, the bubble is already grown to obscene levels, consequences are unavoidable. Buckle up it’s going to be a wild ride!

#62 AM in MN on 03.24.22 at 7:18 pm

#24 Faron on 03.24.22 at 4:57 pm

Simplistic to say, but roofs over heads should not be an investment vehicle of any kind.

————————————————–

That’s really as Left/Far-Left a political statement as it gets. Marxism is what its called.

If someone wants to build rental properties with their time and money, and someone else wants to rent them, for whatever reason, then why is that anyone else’s business?

The point about freedom is that many people prefer it to living a life managed by experts. You need economic freedom in order to be free.

The “housing problem” is one created by Govt., through agencies like CMHC, and restrictions on land development due to spinelessness in negotiations with natives.

Private property rights and the rule of law will always prevail over a managed economy.

#63 Barb on 03.24.22 at 7:23 pm

Maggie’s such a cute pup…

——————————————–
LNDP. Hard to stomach those bed partners. Ugh.

T2 sure got his rear end handed to him on a plate in Europe today. I don’t agree with their reason, but smugly agree it couldn’t happen to a nicer guy.

He should simply stay at home.
Especially now that Jag is PM.

https://www.castanet.net/news/Canada/363858/You-are-a-disgrace-Trio-of-right-wing-European-politicians-tear-into-Trudeau#363858

#64 crowdedelevatorfartz on 03.24.22 at 7:34 pm

@#54 Ponzies Petroleum Price Predictions
“Thanks for reminding me.
Regular in Vanvouver is 1.98.
But Diesel is at 2.29!!”

+++

But it will never reach $3.00 per litre by Summer as I have predicted …..right Ponzie?

#65 crowdedelevatorfartz on 03.24.22 at 7:36 pm

@#49 Ponzie’s Petridish Progeny
“And I resent that Accountants are lumped in with Animal Breeders”

+++
Accountants don’t breed.
They’re cloned.

#66 Centrist on 03.24.22 at 7:39 pm

#40

I’m not a fan of Trudeau, but global oil prices and wheat prices are a result of Putin’s war.

#67 Mark on 03.24.22 at 7:41 pm

lol what on earth…didn’t they already implement a no borrowed funds policy years ago? what am I missing here? either way it will be impossible to enforce – I want to buy my 7th property so I max out my cc and line of credit and maybe a bit from my heloc, withdraw as cash, “gift it” to my brother and have him gift it back…and the bank is somehow supposed to prove its borrowed funds? mmmmmm I’m getting pretty full from all these nothing-burgers. nom nom nom nom nom nom nom.

#68 Ed on 03.24.22 at 7:41 pm

It really is stunning what idiots our leaders actually are.

If Charest ends up leading the Cons the idiocy will be complete.

#69 Sail Away on 03.24.22 at 7:45 pm

#20 Howard on 03.24.22 at 4:50 pm

The kicker? Under this dental scheme which is means-tested by income (not wealth), retired seniors in $20 million mini-castles will get their caps and crowns paid for by the taxpayer.

———

I hope so. Free stuff is the best.

#70 Diamond Dog on 03.24.22 at 7:45 pm

#24 Faron on 03.24.22 at 4:57 pm
#62 AM in MN on 03.24.22 at 7:18 pm

I doubt that “roofs over heads should not be an investment vehicle” is a statement that fits neatly into left/right politics. Out of the words of autocrats and dictators, now that I can see.

I think that’s one that Faron will walk back in the coming years. It’s either 100% ownership or 0% to make a statement like that work. There will always be a percentage of people that are too transient or incapable of owning so 100% is out. 0% home ownership has been tried and it’s flopped as there is not enough incentive to upgrade and beautify or build more value.

In other words, there is a genuine need for leases and rentals. Until the world graduates toward a system of “merit over money” (possible after humanity rises from the ashes but not before then), out of necessity, rentals are here to stay.

#71 DON on 03.24.22 at 7:47 pm

https://www.theguardian.com › mar
“They bought their first homes during Covid – and now they regret it”

https://www.theguardian.com/lifeandstyle/2022/mar/16/us-home-buying-ownsership-covid-pandemic-regrets

It is amazing how things change as life happens…

#72 Flop… on 03.24.22 at 7:51 pm

Italy is a very smart country.

To avoid any chance of having to play Russia in the upcoming World Cup, they did the logical thing and decided to lose to North Macedonia and not qualify for the second World Cup in a row…

M47BC

#73 DON on 03.24.22 at 8:04 pm

About 6 month ago, one of the main thoughts/hopes is that Trudeau would be gone.

Recently, people weren’t happy with him on several accounts. The PM played the only viable card he had and formed a Liberal Democratic alliance. Perhaps a continued amalgamation to retain power. At for one term and dissolves due to inviting or the crisis of the day.

Spoke with the dentist today and they think the pending coversge will cover basic dental for those not on current dental plans. The technician told me in the 70s she had basic dental and it was also good for seniors and people with no work plans. Bad teeth can affect well being.

#74 IHCTD9 on 03.24.22 at 8:05 pm

#54 Ponzius Pilatus on 03.24.22 at 6:56 pm
#40 Dee on 03.24.22 at 5:53 pm
Gas at $3 to 4 a liter, all other energy costs up at least 50% and all you food costs double. I hope you like the LNDP new socialist party.
————-
Thanks for reminding me.
Regular in Vanvouver is 1.98.
But Diesel is at 2.29!!
What’s going on?
How are the DuraMax owners out there coping?
——-

DirtyMax owners get double the fuel mileage, so they’re doing fine.

#75 Ponzius Pilatus on 03.24.22 at 8:05 pm

#63 Barb on 03.24.22 at 7:23 pm
Maggie’s such a cute pup…

——————————————–
LNDP. Hard to stomach those bed partners. Ugh.

T2 sure got his rear end handed to him on a plate in Europe today. I don’t agree with their reason, but smugly agree it couldn’t happen to a nicer guy.

He should simply stay at home.
Especially now that Jag is PM.

https://www.castanet.net/news/Canada/363858/You-are-a-disgrace-Trio-of-right-wing-European-politicians-tear-into-Trudeau#363858
—————–
Barbie,
Did you actually read this garbage?
People like you and other Conservatives, who share your view, are the reason why the Cons are not electable right now.

#76 IHCTD9 on 03.24.22 at 8:11 pm

#53 Ponzius Pilatus on 03.24.22 at 6:50 pm
As Faron points out, Canada is pretty much in line with modern Western Social Democracies.
So, it’s not that they are trail blazers here.
Right now the ZEIGEIST in the West is favoring a shift to the political left.
So, what can a conservative voter do?
Probably not much right now, aside from waiting for the pendulum to swing their way.
Or letting steam off on this blog.
Or maybe joining another Freedom Convoy.
Or moving to a more “legitimate country”.
———-

Depends on age. Old crusty neandercons don’t care because they like money too, and Trudeau is power-ramming cash into their bank accounts and home equities like a pile driver on nitromethane.

The young righties are getting screwed just as hard as the young lefties. Finally, an equal society.

#77 IHCTD9 on 03.24.22 at 8:17 pm

#54 Ponzius Pilatus on 03.24.22 at 6:56 pm
#40 Dee on 03.24.22 at 5:53 pm
Gas at $3 to 4 a liter, all other energy costs up at least 50% and all you food costs double. I hope you like the LNDP new socialist party.
————-
Thanks for reminding me.
Regular in Vanvouver is 1.98.
But Diesel is at 2.29!!
What’s going on?
How are the DuraMax owners out there coping?
——

DirtyMax owners here in my Southern Ontario hood can fill up with diesel on the Rez for 1.74 because we don’t have a left wing lunatic nutbar premier taxing the crap out of the necessities of life. :)

#78 Satori on 03.24.22 at 8:33 pm

#37 Frankie on 03.24.22 at 5:45 pm
Should you wait to buy real estate?
Your answer is here:
Scroll up to…
#32 Lumber on 03.24.22 at 5:31 pm
And Buy a boat.

#79 Satori on 03.24.22 at 8:47 pm

#44 I don’t know on 03.24.22 at 6:03 pm

Rates aren’t going anywhere near as high as everyone thinks, as well.

You buy dirt when you can afford. If you are waiting for the 80’s to return (when almost the same number of SFD homes were available to a population that was 15 million less), you may be disappointed.

Especially with an entire generation entering family formation mode, and after a 15 years of price appreciation.

Almost everyone I know who bought a house did so to raise a family. They aren’t moving any time soon.
——————————————————-
When people see double monthly mortgage payments… guess we will see many skeletal families… because ownership will become more important than eating??? I don’t think so…

#80 mike on 03.24.22 at 8:48 pm

i think you meant 40 year mortgages not 30?

#81 Sympathy on 03.24.22 at 8:56 pm

At the Marxist who laments of paying student loans a few days ago,

I was going to comment something along the lines of “Please be careful and protect yourself, this choice could destroy your future!!!”

Then i googled the actual consequences of not paying student loans….

“cant buy a home” many young Canadians, 76% already feel like this wont be possible for them

“might not even be able to afford to rent” many already cant afford rentals

“lowering your networth” building wealth honestly feels like a pipe dream with Justinflation and the greedy Ontario Teachers Pension masquerading as a pension fund.

“Put Your Dreams on Hold …..You may find yourself sacrificing a job that offers you more fulfillment and purpose for a career with a higher salary” i literally dont know anybody from my college who has a job that they couldnt have gotten without a degree

Canadians are starting to feel like they have nothing to lose, the reality is very sad. Chasing between food or paying Justin Trudeau student loans.

#82 Jeff on 03.24.22 at 8:56 pm

Quick question Garth…have you ever read Capital Vol. One….cover to cover? you seem to be an expert in the field

#83 Doug t on 03.24.22 at 9:39 pm

#56 cuke and tomato

If you read/listen to the CBC you have already discredited yourself

#84 neptunian on 03.24.22 at 10:01 pm

“the psychological effect could be profound.”

“the risk is that an initial decline could trigger a downward spiral of lower house prices and lower house price expectations”

couldn’t agree more, this is the reverse FOMO. We Canadians love FOMO, especially for RE investors, it would be like a snowball rolling downhill…

now the question is, is this true? part of spring budget? this must be asked by NDP, what Liberals get then? stay in power for another 3 years?

#85 cramar on 03.24.22 at 10:23 pm

I’m wondering what the announcement of the $5B E/V battery factory employing 3200 will do to the Windsor housing market two-three years from now? Add the projected expansion of suppliers. Add to this the projected economic expansion due to the opening of the Gordie Howe bridge around the same time. Plus the new mega-hospital, etc. The future for economic expansion looks real good in the coming years.

I’m predicting a large increased demand for housing in the Windsor area, regardless of what the Toronto market will be like then.

#86 Observer on 03.24.22 at 10:25 pm

#36 crowdedelevatorfartz on 03.24.22 at 5:44 pm
@#26 Soren.
“All he gets here in the EU, at the mere mention of his name, is an eye roll.”

+++

Yep.
Trudeau’s speech to the EU Parliament was a non event.
Barely anyone in the room.
Quite a snub.
Everyone is tired of his breathless , wheezing, politically correct lecturing.

^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^
You forgot to mention that the other representatives from Italy, Spain, Denmark also spoke to the same audience

#87 crowdedelevatorfartz on 03.24.22 at 10:30 pm

@#75 Ponzie’s preposterous presumptions
” People like you and other Conservatives, who share your view, are the reason why the Cons are not electable right now”

+++

And Liberals like you are why we keep voting Conservative.

Just keep repeating.
Inflation.
Interest rates.
Recession

#88 Observer on 03.24.22 at 10:47 pm

#84 neptunian on 03.24.22 at 10:01 pm
“the psychological effect could be profound.”

“the risk is that an initial decline could trigger a downward spiral of lower house prices and lower house price expectations”

couldn’t agree more, this is the reverse FOMO.

^^^^^^^^^^^^^^
Shall we call it FOOP (fear of over paying)?

#89 Cowtown_blues on 03.24.22 at 11:28 pm

Finally some positive news…all its been lately from anywhere, not so great. Inflation, war, self interested politicians giving ppl what they want and not what they need.

Who would have know that the globalists (you will own nothing crowd) combined with the free money crowd (NDPrs) could come up with something actually positive. Gee, here is concept purchase a house you want to live in, instead of trying to make some cash being the middle guy flipping or selling houses as a full time gig. The middle guy economy never benefits society in the long terms as these ppl don’t produce anything substantial, but unfortunately the majority of ppl out there are the middle guys. Hopefully this is the government learning, but it could just be a fluke. It usually is the latter, hence not holding
my breath.

#90 Balmuto on 03.24.22 at 11:39 pm

Ever since the first mortgage was underwritten, the housing market has been “financialized”. Financial services provide liquidity. A less liquid market is a less efficient one. Yes, there can be excesses, but the markets will self-correct. It’s actually government intervention that delays this healthy process from happening, so that when the correction eventually comes, it’s much more devastating.

But that won’t stop governments from trying to “fix” the problem.

#91 Coastal gal on 03.24.22 at 11:54 pm

#24 faron

Mt Cain sucks… tell your friends.

#92 Dr V on 03.24.22 at 11:55 pm

81 sympathy

“Put Your Dreams on Hold …..You may find yourself sacrificing a job that offers you more fulfillment and purpose for a career with a higher salary” i literally dont know anybody from my college who has a job that they couldnt have gotten without a degree
————————————————-

Caught this on knowledge

https://www.knowledge.ca/program/my-millennial-life

#93 DON on 03.25.22 at 12:04 am

https://www.npr.org/2022/03/22/1087544173/housing-market-buying-pandemic-rent-rental

How the pandemic housing market spurred buyer’s remorse across America

#94 Satori on 03.25.22 at 12:18 am

I am moving. I rent a one bedroom in Vancouver.

The building manager will be bringing people in today and tomorrow. Doubled the rent… So far there has been 4 families!!!! Families of 4 people, and one family of 5!!!! Living in a one bedroom!!!! ????

We are in shocking times!!! Both these parents likely work and they can ONLY afford a small one bedroom for a family of four??? Pretty SAD State of Affairs!!! I am shocked!!! What the hell happened? Is there no more middle class??? Just poor and super rich?

Oh man, I bet Canadians higher and higher up the income spectrum will start feeling the pinch too… get ready folks, cause its coming for ya…it’s coming for us all.

#95 Unpinned on 03.25.22 at 12:32 am

March Break is the height of S.A.D. (seasonal affective disorder) in Canada and to show my “thank-you to Garth” and fellow comrades up in the Great White North your personal remedy awaits. Tucson, Arizona is familiar to all as the “cowboy mecca for westerns” but what really matters are the twelve plus hours of BRIGHT, blinding sun and endless blue sky to cure all those winter blues. Hot desert air.

#96 millmech on 03.25.22 at 2:10 am

Front loading interest rate hikes now in the cards for Powell, perhaps.

#97 under the radar on 03.25.22 at 4:57 am

Most of this must be implemented by Banks who get tasked with verifying the source of funds. Already the case, certainly if CMHC insurance is required.
None of this will be applicable or enforceable where private funds are borrowed to fund purchases. VTB’s will become popular as a way for sellers to make a deal. Better have a good lawyer who knows their stuff if your holding paper. Good for me. Private lenders will get busier. Good for me. Builders may offer non bank financing alternatives for investor class.
There is still no inventory as most cannot afford to climb higher so they stay put. Demand is insatiable while rates remain historically low. FOMO in 416 still rules, for now.

#98 Bob Loblaw on 03.25.22 at 6:11 am

So bizarre that even communists here in the land of high taxes won’t even consider a capital gains tax on primary residences. The land of low taxes (America taxes any capital gain on primary residences above $250,000 ($500,000 for couples). This could generate hundreds of billions in revenue for our deeply indebted cash starved socialist government yet for some reason we continue to allow massive capital gains from residential real estate to go untaxed while punishing capital gains from investment in businesses that create jobs and are actually economically productive.

#99 Joe Lalonde on 03.25.22 at 6:16 am

Garth,
Housing prices have no choice but to continue to rise as supply runs dry.
You’ve totally missed the Elephant in the room which is governments creeping restrictions and regulations that make creating supplies in this country illegal.
Massive fines for any infractions has decimated industries and only importation gets around what is illegal to create here in Canada.
Even digging a hole can get you in trouble if it disturbs tree roots on another lot. How about watching temperature and humidity levels or be fined if cutting a tree that falls past that limit.
Regulations really have gone far beyond what other countries are doing.
Imported goods now are also being decimated by governments restrictions and bans or more sanctions.

So, where is a business model that doesn’t break a Canadian law or restriction in getting much needed building supplies?

#100 I don’t know on 03.25.22 at 6:59 am

79 Satori on 03.24.22 at 8:47 pm

You assume everyone is over leveraged. This is not the case since it’s been prudent to hold back equity with rates so low for so long.

Expecting a repeat of the 80’s or 2008 is not going to happen in the SFD domain. The opposite actually (prices continuing to increase and causing problems this way).

You buy the moment you can afford to.

IDK

#101 Fortune500 on 03.25.22 at 7:36 am

We just bought in November after years and years of waiting. So it will definitely crash now. You’re welcome!

#102 Summertime on 03.25.22 at 7:52 am

#55 Concerned Citizen on 03.24.22 at 7:02 pm

The idea that Fed can even contemplate reversal of QE to QT (quantitative tightening) of over 100 billions a month while increasing the rates to the ‘huge’ 3 % seems ridiculous to market analysts.

The inflation as measured in the 70-es is actually closer to 20 % as the current CPI goes fast towards 10 %.

I am not sure if anyone pays attention to the food prices at the grocery stores, literally skyrocketing.
So is energy.

The yield curve (difference between short term and long term rates) is at minimum, soon to be negative which triggers recession in 100 % of the cases as nobody in their right mind lends.

We will see rates increasing no more than 100-150 % basis points max and that will be the top – around 2 % that will be quickly reduced as the economy goes into recession.

Inflation is here to stay and no meaningful action can be taken against it, rates will be strongly negative, in the double digits for very long time.

Rates bound with ceiling of 2 %, inflation of 10-15 % minimum, sometimes more.

That is the fallout from financialized for a much longer than needed economy and it has to be paid, the bill is due.

#103 crowdedelevatorfartz on 03.25.22 at 8:06 am

@#86 Observer
“You forgot to mention that the other representatives from Italy, Spain, Denmark also spoke to the same audience”
+++

No one cares about them either?
Shocking.

Any tv shots of the seats emptying out when our fearless leader took the podium?
Or does our bought and paid for media still sit compliantly in the govt’s lap waiting for more govt advertising?

#104 crowdedelevatorfartz on 03.25.22 at 8:14 am

@#94 Sartori
“So far there has been 4 families!!!! Families of 4 people, and one family of 5!!!! Living in a one bedroom!!!! ????”

+++

I worked with a guy who had 7 kids.
He was as poor as a church mouse feeding, clothing and educating that small army of mouths.

He once asked our boss for a raise because he was broke after the birth of baby number 7.
“Perhaps you should have practiced birth control?”
“It’s God’s will if my wife and I have more babies.”
“Then ask God for a raise.”

I met the family one day.
He and the kids seemed pretty happy.
The wife eventually left…..

#105 crowdedelevatorfartz on 03.25.22 at 8:25 am

@#98 Bob Loblaw

“So bizarre that even communists here in the land of high taxes won’t even consider a capital gains tax on primary residences.”

+++

I’m thinking our Socialist overlords will eventually bring in some sort of long overdue capital gains tax on housing sales.

My greater concern is…
I’m our politically correct, apologizing, rush to “right every wrong no matter how long ago” lunacy.

Why stop at todays capital gains tax?

Why not have a retroactive tax that will make the greedy rich boomers of past generations pay for all the bad things happening today?

Housing, inflation, Global warming was obviously caused by sexist, racist boomers in their big houses, with big garages, full of big cars….tax em for everything they ever earned.

Tax them on the tax they paid for 40, 50, 60 years… it wasnt enough because they still have more than the rest of us…

Tax them on the red meat they ate.
Tax them for the vacations they took.
Tax them for the children they had.
Tax them for the air they breathe.

And when your done taxing them.
Blame them for not giving more.

#106 TurnerNation on 03.25.22 at 8:31 am

#99 Joe Lalonde on 03.25.22 at 6:16 am

^^ The writing was on the wall years ago. Remember when people would carve their initials into tree trunks? Why today that would be assault with a weapon.

— As Noted in 2017/18:

#123 TurnerNation on 07.31.18 at 1:08 pm
Life in Kanada. I’ve posted before that one soon will receive jail time for harming a tree. Trees have more rights than people under our forced UN Agenda.

Perfect example. Forced out of their home for a tree.
https://www.blogto.com/city/2018/07/toronto-buying-entire-house-so-it-can-save-tree/

—-> Sage advice given back then, join The Party comrades!

#13 TurnerNation on 12.10.17 at 1:57 pm
Toronto? The absurdity of it all.

The City of Toronto’s sole point of existence is to fund the salaries and benefits of Public Sector Unions – and associated contractors, consultants. Nothing more.
Trees have more rights than people in Toronto. If a homeowner cuts down their tree without State permission there is outrage, fines, restitution. Full and immediate official response, follow up and persecution with mandatory re-education. If a developer does this, it makes the newspaper even, and people wear black for a week.
Kids: Just. Join. The Party.

#107 Jay (not that one) on 03.25.22 at 8:48 am

What role would the CMHC have in a future where a mandatory minimum down payment for a home is 35%?

#108 RichardTO on 03.25.22 at 9:00 am

Russia holds all of the cards. Some more developments:

– a RUBINR swap line is being established between Russia and India, effective as of the next week, allowing direct exchange of currencies and using bi-lateral settlement system
– Central Bank of Russia finally takes the lesson from the Fed and the ECB and engages in QE, targeting the RUB yield curve by direct purchases of government debt on MICEX from the local investors (foreign owners’ holdings are effectively frozen as of now and can not be sold in the market)
– a comprehensive set of capital controls stops the capital flight, USDRUB is down 30% from the recent post-invasion peak
– retail fuel prices are down 5-10% in RUB terms across the country as the excess export volumes of diesel go to domestic market
– export oil prices are up markedly, fully negating the Urals-Brent discounts in absolute terms, the same in thermal coal, fertilizer, wood and cellulose, copper and aluminium among others
– the heating and electricity bills for the population will be indexed by just around 8% y-o-y in nominal RUB terms (or effectively decreased by -4-7% in real terms), negating the higher food/FMCG price effects
– food inflation is rising due to increased stock-piling by the distributors and population (sugar, mostly, as widely used in home breweries to make moonshine), but the impulse buying has mostly subsided while the stocks are managed by temporary export bans for most of the agricultural commodities…

You’ll have to pay up a bit to buy a new Bentley and ship it from Azerbaijan or Kazakhstan to Moscow, but other than that, the impact on the larger part of Russian society is so far rather limited.

#109 THE DANDADA on 03.25.22 at 9:16 am

BITCOIN and Cryptocurrencies rapidly being adopted all over the world.

Checkout the GOLDMAN SACHS main website lately?

https://www.goldmansachs.com

#110 crowdedelevatorfartz on 03.25.22 at 9:29 am

@#108 RichardTO

“Russia holds all of the cards. Some more developments:”

+++

Apparently the Ukrainians didn’t get the message…

https://www.reuters.com/world/us/ukraine-urges-halt-russias-assault-biden-heads-poland-2022-03-25/

The Ukrainian army is heading east….towards Russia.

#111 IHCTD9 on 03.25.22 at 9:37 am

#94 Satori on 03.25.22 at 12:18 am
I am moving. I rent a one bedroom in Vancouver.

The building manager will be bringing people in today and tomorrow. Doubled the rent… So far there has been 4 families!!!! Families of 4 people, and one family of 5!!!! Living in a one bedroom!!!! ????

We are in shocking times!!! Both these parents likely work and they can ONLY afford a small one bedroom for a family of four??? Pretty SAD State of Affairs!!! I am shocked!!! What the hell happened? Is there no more middle class??? Just poor and super rich?

Oh man, I bet Canadians higher and higher up the income spectrum will start feeling the pinch too… get ready folks, cause its coming for ya…it’s coming for us all.
____

Standard of living reversal. We used to buy a family home with a white picket fence. Now a family buys/rents a one bed’er in a big Metro.

Joseph Tainter was correct. Once the cost of the complexity built into a society increases to the point where living standards no longer improve alongside the increased costs – society will devolve to a previous, simpler state.

The future may be brighter though, if technology allows for people to earn sufficiently without having to all pile into a big city.

#112 crowdedelevatorfartz on 03.25.22 at 9:51 am

@#106 Turner Nation.

“Trees have more rights than people in Toronto. If a homeowner cuts down their tree without State permission there is outrage, fines, restitution. ”
+++

I have a large, dying , cedar tree that is on the property of the shop where we work. Several very large branches have come down in wind storms over the past few winters.
It’s dangerous.
Accident waiting to happen.

I called an arborist to quote for its removal.
“Got a permit? I aint touchin it if you don’t have a permit.”
So I went on the City website.
You need a city inspector to come to your site to assess , take photos, and assess.
$1500 deposit before that happens.
If the city decides you cannot remove the tree they will refund you $700. ( essentially it costs $800 for a city worker to drive to your site, look at a tree and say, “No.”)

If the city allows you to remove the tree and if the tree is larger than 5 feet in circumference ( it is) you must replace it with 3 trees of the city’s choice.
You must plant trees that are native to the area and the city will inspect 3 times over 3 years to ensure they have survived.
If any have died you must replace them.
If you don’t have enough room to plant 3 trees ( we dont) you must donate those trees to the city.
After the tree has been removed at your cost ( $1800 quote because its a big tree).
The owner property took one look at the useless bureaucracy and said, “Let the wind blow it down and the insurance claim can pay for the damages.”

#113 Gravy Train on 03.25.22 at 9:56 am

#108 RichardTO on 03.25.22 at 9:00 am
Russia holds all of the cards.[…]

So, what’s your deal, comrade? Why do support the slaughter of innocent men, women and children in Ukraine? Are you psychopathic? Do you espouse totalitarianism? Я не понимаю! Maybe you, Jaguar, fishman, Nonplused and the other nutbars can explain it to me!

#114 DON on 03.25.22 at 9:58 am

#100 I don’t know on 03.25.22 at 6:59 am
79 Satori on 03.24.22 at 8:47 pm

You assume everyone is over leveraged. This is not the case since it’s been prudent to hold back equity with rates so low for so long.

Expecting a repeat of the 80’s or 2008 is not going to happen in the SFD domain. The opposite actually (prices continuing to increase and causing problems this way).

You buy the moment you can afford to.

**********&&&&&&*

Buy if you can afford to in an over priced market is realtor sales talk.

Your recency bias is showing through in light of all the is changing around you. Ignorance is bliss.

Go troll somewhere else.

#115 Howard on 03.25.22 at 10:08 am

#107 Jay (not that one) on 03.25.22 at 8:48 am
What role would the CMHC have in a future where a mandatory minimum down payment for a home is 35%?

————————————–

35% for investors.

Still 5% or 10% for owner-occupiers buying homes under $1 million, or 20% to avoid the CMHC insurance or for any home above $1 million.

#116 Sail Away on 03.25.22 at 10:10 am

It’s not a terrible time to buy some of the indexes, which have begun rebounding but still a better deal than months ago.

‘Buying the rebounded dip’ time, if you will, where even wimps can do ok.

#117 Shawn on 03.25.22 at 10:34 am

Financialization? Is it Bad?

#90 Balmuto on 03.24.22 at 11:39 pm

Ever since the first mortgage was underwritten, the housing market has been “financialized”.

**********************************
That’s a great point. In fact our entire way of life has been increasingly financialized going back centuries.

Several hundred years ago (certainly 1000 years ago) most people would build their own house and grow their own food and make their own cloths. Slowly they started to sell some of their food or other products to get money to buy things they could not make themselves.

As recently as the 1960’s most pre-school childcare was provided by mothers directly with no cash exchange involved. Today much of that has shifted to paid child care.

An awful lot of people today have a cleaning lady (sexist I know) at least once a month. That’s financialization.

Despite bleating, financialization is mostly a very good thing. It’s certainly not going to be reversed.

#118 Daveyboy on 03.25.22 at 10:45 am

@ 100, what stage are you in?

https://transportgeography.org/contents/chapter3/transportation-and-economic-development/bubble-stages/

#119 Quintilian on 03.25.22 at 11:13 am

#105 crowdedelevatorfartz on 03.25.22 at 8:25 am

Your incessant posting could be interpreted by the lesser apes as insufferable, but I see it as a genuine concern for society although misguided.

And so let me explain in terms you might understand using the analogy of a construction site given that you are in the trades.

During the demolition and the reconstruction that follows, all kinds of debris make it difficult to see the aesthetics of the new build when not yet completed.

I know it’s confusing for you now, I feel for you, but is where we are now in the” build it better “stage of a new society.

Embrace it, you will thank us later.

#120 DON on 03.25.22 at 11:18 am

https://calgaryherald.com/life/homes/new-homes/rise-in-new-listings-could-mark-return-to-balance-in-canadas-housing-market

#121 Dharma Bum on 03.25.22 at 11:18 am

#17 Dougie

LLs?

Landlords. – Garth
——————————————————————————————————

Thanks for the clarification.

I was certain you meant “low lifes”!

#122 don't poke the bear on 03.25.22 at 11:29 am

the bond market is getting eviscerated, for those that think rates will never rise.

get ready for the highest rates in decades

#123 Trojan House on 03.25.22 at 11:29 am

They know it is so easy to pander to their followers with easy slogans like “tax the rich” or “pay their fair share” because they know people are not educated enough to understand anything beyond simple terms. It’s why things like “free university education,” “free dental care” and “free daycare” get lapped up so easily or “making housing more affordable.” No further explanation needed for socialists.

#124 Sail Away on 03.25.22 at 11:43 am

#123 TurnerNation on 07.31.18 at 1:08 pm

I’ve posted before that one soon will receive jail time for harming a tree. Trees have more rights than people under our forced UN Agenda.

Perfect example. Forced out of their home for a tree.
https://www.blogto.com/city/2018/07/toronto-buying-entire-house-so-it-can-save-tree/

——–

I’m all in favour. But… one must use this to their own advantage.

Story time: due to a quirk of zoning, our front grassed boulevard bordering the street is very wide- about 10m. When we bought the place, there were a dozen or so very large Lombardi Poplars planted along the property line. BCH assessed them as old and unstable and offered to cut them all down for free; an offer we gladly accepted because free is always best.

But… then we had a very large open expanse owned by the City, so we built a fine cedar fence along the property line, and planted a dozen protected specie Garry oaks in the boulevard between the fence and road shoulder, along with thousands of daffodils, crocuses, and tulips (the tulips for deer food only, apparently). 16 years later, the oaks are thriving and the boulevard is a veritable sea of flowers.

Now, with well-established, provincially-protected trees on City property, this area will never be further developed. Every year of growth adds more protections. Perfect.

#125 Damifino on 03.25.22 at 11:58 am

#103 crowdedelevatorfartz

Any tv shots of the seats emptying out when our fearless leader took the podium?
—————————

I can no longer stand to see or hear him. It’s gotten that bad. There was a time (years ago) when occasionally I’d be flipping through TV channels looking for something worthwhile and I might catch a two-second glimpse of “The Cosby Show”. That was already too much Cosby.

The same now goes for he who was born Christmas day. No, not him. He’s okay. I mean the other one.

#126 jess on 03.25.22 at 12:31 pm

no walls

from cnn” “84 million displaced people, 26.6 million refugees While the Russian attack of Ukraine and the unexpected flood of refugees has shocked the global community, the worldwide problem of displaced people is not new.
There are more than 84 million people who have been forcibly displaced from their homes because of political unrest, natural disasters or economic opportunities as of the middle of 2021, according to UNHCR, the UN refugee agency.
Most of these people are displaced within their own countries. But more than 26.6 million of these are refugees who have fled their native countries, usually to nations nearby.
Most of these refugees were from just five countries: Afghanistan, Myanmar, South Sudan, Syria and Venezuela.

#127 salonist on 03.25.22 at 1:06 pm

Stimulus checks for gas?USA
could this be coming to CANADA

and the carbon tax will be increased by 467%

https://www.nortonrosefulbright.com/en/knowledge/publications/d58ef644/canada-to-increase-carbon-taxes-by-467
did anyone mention to trudeau, that we are in the midst of an ice age

Striking during the time period known as the Pleistocene Epoch, this ice age started about 2.6 million years ago and lasted until roughly 11,000 years ago. Like all the others, the most recent ice age brought a series of glacial advances and retreats. In fact, we are technically still in an ice age.Feb 18, 2021

#128 bdwy on 03.25.22 at 1:19 pm

Buy if you can afford to in an over priced market is realtor sales talk.
———————
sales talk that has been spot on for the last 20+yrs in vancouver just about 100% of the time.

vancouver is not going ‘under-priced’ . 15 % mortages sould soften things a bit. end up with the same paymemt in the end if the cash buyers don’t swoop in first.

#129 Dr V on 03.25.22 at 1:26 pm

112 Fartz

“The owner property took one look at the useless bureaucracy and said, ‘Let the wind blow it down and the insurance claim can pay for the damages.’ ”
—————————————————-

Years ago it was explained to me like this: Leave the tree and let it fall, then insurance will pay. Remove one dead branch, then allow the tree to fall, and insurance will not pay.

The district owned property next to my in-laws. There
was a row of larger second growth firs on the district’s
side. My in-laws had one of their own trees fall across the corner of their house during a windstorm. Missed my
wife by minutes. My FIL called the district to see if they would top the trees on their side. They would not, citing
the above reasoning.

I have no idea if this is still how it works.

#130 jess on 03.25.22 at 1:32 pm

fringe seems more polite than mr. Kenny’s choice

How offensive is the word ‘lunatic’?

By Daniel Nasaw
BBC News Magazine, Washington

Published

9 May 2012

https://www.bbc.com/news/magazine-17997413

#131 WTF on 03.25.22 at 1:36 pm

107 Jay (not that one) on 03.25.22 at 8:48 am
What role would the CMHC have in a future where a mandatory minimum down payment for a home is 35%?

—————————————————————–

Uhhh, CMHC (you and the rest of us tax slaves)assumes the risk for the Banks and their unfettered lending practices.

#132 DON on 03.25.22 at 1:38 pm

#128 bdwy on 03.25.22 at 1:19 pm
Buy if you can afford to in an over priced market is realtor sales talk.
———————
sales talk that has been spot on for the last 20+yrs in vancouver just about 100% of the time.

vancouver is not going ‘under-priced’ . 15 % mortages sould soften things a bit. end up with the same paymemt in the end if the cash buyers don’t swoop in first.

**********
Come on bdwy…buying at the height of price increases in a wave of change?

You should know that nothing lasts forever and 15 – 20 years is not forever.

We didn’t have to deal with this level of inflation in the last 20 years.

#133 Observer on 03.25.22 at 1:40 pm

#103 crowdedelevatorfartz on 03.25.22 at 8:06 am
@#86 Observer
“You forgot to mention that the other representatives from Italy, Spain, Denmark also spoke to the same audience”
+++

No one cares about them either?
Shocking.

Any tv shots of the seats emptying out when our fearless leader took the podium?
Or does our bought and paid for media still sit compliantly in the govt’s lap waiting for more govt advertising?

^^^^^^^^^^^^^
Attendance has been mostly virtual for a long time now, but don’t let that ruin your hate-on.

#134 DON on 03.25.22 at 1:42 pm

#128 bdwy on 03.25.22 at 1:19 pm
Buy if you can afford to in an over priced market is realtor sales talk.
———————
sales talk that has been spot on for the last 20+yrs in vancouver just about 100% of the time.

vancouver is not going ‘under-priced’ . 15 % mortages sould soften things a bit. end up with the same paymemt in the end if the cash buyers don’t swoop in first.

**********
Come on bdwy…buying at the height of price increases in a wave of change?

You should know that nothing lasts forever and 15 – 20 years is not forever.

We didn’t have to deal with this level of inflation in the last 20 years.

And it doesn’t matter what happened in the past…it matters want happens tomorrow. Take the lead Broadway and buy a couple more investment properties…low risk take the jump. Like you said what could go wrong?

#135 fishman on 03.25.22 at 1:45 pm

You see Gravy Train it started a long time ago. Over a thousand years. The Great Schism 0f 1054AD. Christendom split when Eastern patriarchs rejected the Papal Authority of the Roman Catholic Church. After 1990 Russians started rebuilding the churches that Stalin had levelled. The’ve put up thousands of new churches. Churches going up everywhere. It doesn’t make sense to us westerners because Russians are just not religious. Lets just call it a unique cultural trait.
Thats why I believed Putin when he said that Nato had to sign on that the Ukraine would never become a part of Nato & would be a non-aligned, non-militarized buffer state; or else he would “wreck” the country. I believed him when he said that Russia had just gone through 70 years of what the west is going through now. I believe that western democracy defined by inalienable rights & unlimited personal freedom morphing into universalism “globalism” is destroying us. Going down a “Brave New World” worm hole.
I don’t believe that I’m the nut bar that revels in the deaths of innocent women & children. I believe that the nut bars are the neoconservatives, Never Trumpers, warmongering Democratics, military industrial complex, & Liberals who use innocent women & children as expendable human shields to further their ghastly globalist agendas. All under the pretext of democracy & human rights. Nulland & Freeland running around the Maidan like giddy schoolgirls ginning up the Orange revolution are the nut bars.

#136 bdwy on 03.25.22 at 1:52 pm

#85 cramar on 03.24.22 at 10:23 pm
I’m wondering what the announcement of the $5B E/V battery factory employing 3200 will do to the Windsor housing market two-three years from now? Add the projected expansion of suppliers. Add to this the projected economic expansion due to the opening of the Gordie Howe bridge around the same time. Plus the new mega-hospital, etc. The future for economic expansion looks real good in the coming years.

I’m predicting a large increased demand for housing in the Windsor area, regardless of what the Toronto market will be like then.
——————
seems like a solid assumption.
72k for a decent-ish house when i left for bc in 1995.
warmer too. we called it the ‘banana belt’ .

#137 RichardTO on 03.25.22 at 1:56 pm

#110 crowdedelevatorfartz

>The Ukrainian army is heading east….towards Russia.

Dangerous self-delusions and mostly fictional, that’s been the Western narrative to try and salvage the concept of Ukrainian statehood. Which is evaporating.

The Russians are making slow, steady gains on nearly every front and methodically destroying the operational component of the Ukr army. One cannot negotiate when one has no army. And it appears that Zelensky has fled to Poland last week, so in reality the Ukrainian state security services (SBU) are the defacto leadership of the country.

A rump state in Western Ukraine, with some kind of protection from Poland (agreed upon with Putin), is the best that Ukraine can hope for now.

Always interesting listening to the Russian Minister of Blog Disinformation. – Garth

#138 DON on 03.25.22 at 2:17 pm

https://fortune.com/2022/03/23/housing-market-interest-rate-economic-shock/

Good article on fools who lack context rush to beat rates…at least Americans can lock in for longer.

#139 Sail Away on 03.25.22 at 2:17 pm

#129 Dr V on 03.25.22 at 1:26 pm
112 Fartz

“The owner property took one look at the useless bureaucracy and said, ‘Let the wind blow it down and the insurance claim can pay for the damages.’ ”

———

Years ago it was explained to me like this: Leave the tree and let it fall, then insurance will pay. Remove one dead branch, then allow the tree to fall, and insurance will not pay.

The district owned property next to my in-laws. There
was a row of larger second growth firs on the district’s
side. My in-laws had one of their own trees fall across the corner of their house during a windstorm. Missed my
wife by minutes. My FIL called the district to see if they would top the trees on their side. They would not, citing
the above reasoning.

I have no idea if this is still how it works.

———

I think so. If a tree has not been previously assessed a ‘danger tree’ by a qualified arborist, if it falls, it’s an act of the Goddess.

Another story! We have many large fir trees. Three years ago, an enormous 18″ branch broke off and went through our neighbour’s roof, landing in their living room. Their insurance covered all damage to their property and we were completely left out of it. Their insurance even repaired a portion of the boundary fence that I had originally built.

However, subsequently, because there had been damage caused by one of our trees, our insurer strongly recommended we have an arborist in to assess all trees and trim as necessary, which we did. Now if another one of our trees crushes another neighbour’s house, we should still be in the clear. Same if it crushes our house.

‘Qualified arborist’ may be the key.

#140 Crystal ball futurist on 03.25.22 at 2:22 pm

Feeding this information the crystal ball, it showed dark clouds lurking over the Canadian housing market. Inflation and tighter lending will be the last 2 straws.

On a brighter note, the crystal ball shows the stock market climbing a wall of worry later this year.

It’s looks like a bright future for the stocks.

#141 IHCTD9 on 03.25.22 at 2:34 pm

#112 crowdedelevatorfartz on 03.25.22 at 9:51 am

I have a large, dying , cedar tree that is on the property of the shop where we work. Several very large branches have come down in wind storms over the past few winters.
It’s dangerous.
Accident waiting to happen.

I called an arborist to quote for its removal.
“Got a permit? I aint touchin it if you don’t have a permit.”
So I went on the City website.
You need a city inspector to come to your site to assess , take photos, and assess.
$1500 deposit before that happens.
If the city decides you cannot remove the tree they will refund you $700. ( essentially it costs $800 for a city worker to drive to your site, look at a tree and say, “No.”)

If the city allows you to remove the tree and if the tree is larger than 5 feet in circumference ( it is) you must replace it with 3 trees of the city’s choice.
You must plant trees that are native to the area and the city will inspect 3 times over 3 years to ensure they have survived.
If any have died you must replace them.
If you don’t have enough room to plant 3 trees ( we dont) you must donate those trees to the city.
After the tree has been removed at your cost ( $1800 quote because its a big tree).
The owner property took one look at the useless bureaucracy and said, “Let the wind blow it down and the insurance claim can pay for the damages.”
——

That is incredible, and one of the reasons I live in the boondocks.

A few years back, I decided a pine tree had to go. It was getting into the house, and coons we’re using it to get on the roof. Problem was it was way heavy on the house side, thus couldn’t be dropped away from the house.

I climbed half way up, and wrapped a 10 ton tow strap around the trunk. The other end was attached to my little 30hp ‘52 track loader. With a little puff of black from the stack, the stalwart yellow runt towed that pine over like it wasn’t even there, landing free and clear into my side yard. It then pried out the root ball after I sawed off the trunk, and carried it off to the wood pile. 2 days later, the tree was firewood, and the hole was a bare patch in the lawn sprinkled with fresh grass seed.

No permits, assessments, deposits, or BS required!

#142 PeterfromCalgary on 03.25.22 at 3:02 pm

Cutting down on my driving so my fill up will last until April 1 when Alberta “pauses” the 13 cent provincial excise tax on gasoline.

#143 Linda on 03.25.22 at 3:13 pm

#20 ‘Howard’ – IF the proposed dental plan is means tested then it basically mirrors dental coverage provided to low income households now – at least for seniors. So nothing new there. Also, despite the insane RE price increases in GTA/YVR most places for sale (especially those owned by those much resented seniors) are worth $20 million+. As pointed out by Garth, getting seniors to sell & live off the ‘windfall’ proceeds is a tough sell. This also presumes said seniors haven’t tapped the value of that asset to live off of via a reverse mortgage, so could be that selling up wouldn’t result in better finances. Plus said senior would have to find somewhere else to live. For long term homeowners an even tougher sell.

Anyway, bottom line is that just because you think someone is ‘rich’ doesn’t mean they actually are. I could drive a fancy car, live in a fancy house, dress in fancy clothes etc. & own nothing but a steaming pile of debt. Do I look ‘rich’? Indeed I do. Am I ‘rich’? Not necessarily.

#144 bdwy on 03.25.22 at 3:15 pm

Come on bdwy…buying at the height of price increases in a wave of change?
—————————-
van city proper had the smallest bump in assessments last year. ~9% around here.

the closer to hope the better you did in 2021.
if return to office really kicks in , the sticks are over priced but urban detached you can’t ever go wrong it seems.

#145 Linda on 03.25.22 at 3:15 pm

#20 ‘Howard’ – IF the proposed dental plan is means tested then it basically mirrors dental coverage provided to low income households now – at least for seniors. So nothing new there. Also, despite the insane RE price increases in GTA/YVR most places for sale (especially those owned by those much resented seniors) are not worth $20 million+. $2 million seems to be the most commonly quoted sale price these days. As pointed out by Garth, getting seniors to sell & live off the ‘windfall’ proceeds is a tough sell. This also presumes said seniors haven’t tapped the value of that asset to live off of via a reverse mortgage, so could be that selling up wouldn’t result in better finances. Plus said senior would have to find somewhere else to live. For long term homeowners an even tougher sell.

Anyway, bottom line is that just because you think someone is ‘rich’ doesn’t mean they actually are. I could drive a fancy car, live in a fancy house, dress in fancy clothes etc. & own nothing but a steaming pile of debt. Do I look ‘rich’? Indeed I do. Am I ‘rich’? Not necessarily.

#146 Brian on 03.25.22 at 3:26 pm

Re: #137 RichardTO

From actual reporters on the ground, not the ones from their safe place outside the country, confirm your analysis.

#147 KLNR on 03.25.22 at 3:26 pm

@#135 fishman on 03.25.22 at 1:45 pm
You see Gravy Train it started a long time ago. Over a thousand years. The Great Schism 0f 1054AD. Christendom split when Eastern patriarchs rejected the Papal Authority of the Roman Catholic Church. After 1990 Russians started rebuilding the churches that Stalin had levelled. The’ve put up thousands of new churches. Churches going up everywhere. It doesn’t make sense to us westerners because Russians are just not religious. Lets just call it a unique cultural trait.
Thats why I believed Putin when he said that Nato had to sign on that the Ukraine would never become a part of Nato & would be a non-aligned, non-militarized buffer state; or else he would “wreck” the country. I believed him when he said that Russia had just gone through 70 years of what the west is going through now. I believe that western democracy defined by inalienable rights & unlimited personal freedom morphing into universalism “globalism” is destroying us. Going down a “Brave New World” worm hole.
I don’t believe that I’m the nut bar that revels in the deaths of innocent women & children. I believe that the nut bars are the neoconservatives, Never Trumpers, warmongering Democratics, military industrial complex, & Liberals who use innocent women & children as expendable human shields to further their ghastly globalist agendas.

anybody who uses the term ‘globalist agenda’
is definitely a nutbar.

#148 enthalpy on 03.25.22 at 3:38 pm

Definitely a lot of investors who are hoarding units DT in the smoke.
My anecdotal evidence is seeing how many dark units there are per building on a nightly basis for the last 5 + yrs. I’ve never seen giant swaths of buildings so dark. Night after night. 50-50% to about 40% in use – 60% empty, by my quick maths.

Thats a lot of inventory not in actual use. And with all the new builds coming online(A LOT of Condos)….. even with the new immigrants. This could finally be the reckoning thats long overdue.

#149 willworkforpickles on 03.25.22 at 8:56 pm

QE for the sake of QE should never have been started in the first place.

QE has expanded the bubble economy. A fake economy built on debt expansion that has grown a monster that can’t be put down without taking the economy and most everyone out with it.
The recursive QE effect or QE that is here to stay in other words, now must feed on itself to keep the cancerous debt breathing bubble economy from imploding.

The QE debt bubble has been recklessly grown to such an extent , real GDP doesn’t provide enough to cover the debt servicing costs without more QE.

The Fed knows this. Without the tapering promised now having even begun yet, the Fed has seized on a golden opportunity to ultimately implement QE5 later this or early next year.
A golden opportunity to bring in another round of QE and shift the blame for creating the quandary and more importantly , accompanying killer inflation yet to come on top of what we have now and is still forming.

That plan falls within the culmination of current Fed hawkishness which is little more than a pre-planned stunt the Fed chair is using to fool the markets and the masses he is other than intently serious about getting inflation under control.
If Powell was serious about getting inflation under control he would admit their isn’t any way without setting off the domino effect to total economic ruin.
So he runs and hides as the Fed has done in the last decade and now sees a golden opportunity to shift blame away from the calamity they are responsible for to begin with.

Later this year it will become apparent, smallish interest rate hikes are having no effect on inflation but only to see inflation increase instead. Anticipating a market backlash then , the Fed will introduce the next round of QE , blaming the unavoidable increasing inflation on the Russian war . Then use the Russian excuse taking advantage of the golden opportunity to quantify the move to implement QE5 – taking the heat off the Fed shifting blame for what the Fed is solely guilty of.

The truth of the matter is QE5 will be the final straw that breaks the camels back culminating in eventual economic calamity on NA soil as never before seen.

QE5 is expected to balloon the US national debt by another $10 trillion dollars.

The clock to the final countdown of the dollars days as the world’s reserve currency will be set in motion over QE5 with a devaluing dollar cited for the dumping of US securities en-masse .