The return

They pulled down the yellow tape last week. Took the chairs off the tables. Swabbed sanitizing goo everywhere. Now the food court sitting under the 68-storey bank tower is officially open. A bunch of the vendors may have perished over the last two years, but there are long lines in the morning at Timmy’s. The bagel place is back, too. Toronto’s underground PATH metropolis is slowly coming awake, like the crocuses far overhead.

RTO at the outfit I’m part of is scheduled for a week from Monday. Yes, hybrid’s okay. But the expectation, say the overlords, is bums will be in chairs three days a week.

Hmm. Huge change. During January, for example, Metrolinx – the outfit in charge of Toronto’s web of commuter lines – reported ridership was “10% to 20%” of pre-pandemic levels as Omicron raged. Now, eight weeks later, the pandemic has mysteriously vanished. So while living in a house 80 km from the core as a WFH warrior was perfectly reasonable after Christmas, everything’s different in the spring.

Local media is reporting on people looking for pied-a-terre condos downtown so they can avoid the commute (Tranna has the worst in North America, at an average of 96 minutes). This has helped DT units sail to a new record value – $822,000 on average, up 21.5%.

The big question is whether rising mortgage rates, return-to-office protocols, commuting angst and the end of the pandemic nesting frenzy will deflate housing. This week RBC hinted that might be the case. Its annual house lust poll found 23% of people plan on buying in the next two years – down almost a quarter from last year, and back to BeforeTimes levels. Renters report less pressure to become owners. More people are staying at home with parents, waiting.

“Our research indicates that the rush of Canadians looking to purchase a home over the last two years has subsided and we’re now starting to see a move back to pre-pandemic levels,” says the bank.

Here are some other interesting bits: 54% state they’re stressed about having to buy a house in the sticks, further from family, friends and work. Fully 40% of respondents claim they’re “financially overwhelmed.” Meanwhile 60% worry about interest rates going up. And apparently they should.

Did you catch the latest from Fed boss Powell this week?

He’s the most important central banker in the world, so every single syllable he utters has import and can move markets. He knows it. He speaks with exceeding caution. “Inflation is much too high,” he said this week, and rates will continue to rise until it is corralled. That was shocking.

“We will take the necessary steps to ensure a return to price stability,” he added. “In particular, if we conclude that it is appropriate to move more aggressively by raising the federal funds rate by more than 25 basis points at a meeting or meetings, we will do so. And if we determine that we need to tighten beyond common measures of neutral and into a more restrictive stance, we will do that as well.”

Markets are now betting the next move (May) will be 50 basis points, and a few more will follow. As the Bank of Canada has a 90% record of following the Fed (and our dollar would be impacted if it did not), it’s safe to assume a similar trajectory.

This week we showed you the bond yield chart. We confirmed mortgage rates increases. Now we have a commitment from the CB god. What further proof is needed to show we’re on the way to 5%+ mortgages? And let’s not forget Ukraine. It’s Europe’s breadbasket with the greatest amount of arable land on the continent. Production of sunflower oil, barley, corn, rye and potatoes is among the greatest in the world – now in jeopardy.

Ukraine has most of Europe’s uranium, as well as big reserves of titanium, manganese, iron ore, mercury, shale gas and coal. So if the war continues, production will collapse, prices rise, the supply chain get wonkier, inflation mount and rate pressures grow.

By the way, note that nothing in this post is really conjecture. Nor should any of it be surprising. Wholesale change was inevitable when the virus receded – even without that nutcase in the Kremlin.

Assumptions people made during a once-in-a-century global pandemic (emergency rates could never go up, real estate would rise endlessly, the office would never reopen, commuting was dead) were classic examples of recency bias.

Two predictions: sellers in Bunnypatch will soon clog MLS, and pandemic puppies will fill the SPCA. They won’t all merit your sympathy.

About the picture: “Hi, my name is Faye,” writes the cat, owned by Bob. “I’m a tortoiseshell with attitude. My benefactor known as espressobob adopted me from Toronto Cat Rescue. While he didn’t know what he was getting into, it doesn’t matter since I’ve trained him. He serves me well.”

182 comments ↓

#1 Observer on 03.23.22 at 10:58 am

#165 IHCTD9 on 03.23.22 at 8:42 am
#150 Observer on 03.22.22 at 11:12 pm
No offence bud, but dildos like you vote for this shit-show. I got tens of thousands worth in CCB even though we structured our lives around the need to finance having kids right from the get-go. I never needed a damn dime of it. No fellow Canuck should be forced to support our decision to have kids. The cut-off for CCB is sky high. I spent my CCB cheques at the local YAMAHA dealer. Trudeau is a dunce.

^^^^^^^^^^^
This “dildo” (as you refered to me) is not a fan of how the CCB is structured. Too many families (such as yourself) who don’t really need it, got it.

We need social programs, but they must be based on need, imo. Liberals screw up by being overly generous.

CERB is another example of poorly planned benefit. 15 year old kids living with mom and dad (particularly where mom and dad are making decent coin) should not have qualified.

OAS, in my opinion should have a lower cut-off point (maybe applied to combined parter income rather than to individuals).

Same with any pharmacare, dental care, or childcare benefits. Costs will be much less if we focus on who really needs them.
___

Yes we agree. The problem is, of the major parties the only ones who would ever promise to cut back on social programs are the Cons. And you would not vote for the Cons ever. If all your wishes as stated above could come true, and all you had to do to make it happen is vote blue – you wouldn’t.

The point was Trudeau (whom you praise) is *individually* responsible for the circus tent we all now live in. He has well demonstrated that everything he touches turns into a black hole for money and does the opposite of what he intended. It’s not because he’s a Liberal, it’s because he’s Trudeau.

^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^
Weird how you claim to be able to read my mind. FYI, I have voted Conservative in the past and would again if they would stop trying to emulate Trump Republicans. Also, I have never praised Trudeau. Is the your world always so black and white?

#2 Mr Canada on 03.23.22 at 11:13 am

Our local humane society seems to have an abundance of 2 year old cats and dogs.

#3 Joe Lalonde on 03.23.22 at 11:20 am

Maybe Trudeau could observe what the Russians are using in this new Military Engagement?
Perhaps buy Military Equipment that troops could use in a REAL MILITARY engagement.

https://thesaker.is/day-26-of-operation-z-in-the-ukraine/

Our Mainstream Media doesn’t exactly make that easy but some real good drones show how to find and eliminate Military Targets.

#4 "NUTS!" on 03.23.22 at 11:25 am

It’s been a concern of mine all along, watching the massive number of dogs being sold to the (temp) WFH crowd. The days of WFH are coming to a close and those poor animals will be flooding the SPCA . . . or worse.

Tragic

#5 unbalanced on 03.23.22 at 11:30 am

Nutcase in the Kremlin had a Wacko friend in the USA who was play acting as a president but aced being a clown!

#6 CanadianOne on 03.23.22 at 11:30 am

Good Morning Garth!

#7 Gvrdboy on 03.23.22 at 11:34 am

I already feel bad for the dogs and people just trying to get a home for themselves. The investor class, sorry, you gambled and lost, better luck next time. But for everyone, know your limit, play within it, should be the slogan of Canadian real estate.

#8 Russ on 03.23.22 at 11:34 am

unbalanced on 03.23.22 at 9:48 am

TD9—Why so … Just grow up and get off your high horse. Maybe read the rules of this blog.

There are rules? – Garth

=============================

A carry-over.

“The code is more what you’d call ‘guidelines’ than actual rules.”
– Barbossa, Pirates of the Caribbean

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=k9ojK9Q_ARE

#9 X on 03.23.22 at 11:37 am

You think BoC will do .25 April 13, then another .25 June 1 to keep matched with the Fed rate going up .5 in May? I hope so, mortgages and housing market aside, it is crazy to see the price of groceries escalate every month.

#10 Philco on 03.23.22 at 11:40 am

Bernier is a racist, anti-science egomaniac unfit for public office. – Garth
And then we have Trudeau his mouth has been appalling at times.
Now peeps can’t afford gas and food. Foods going up.
Thanks to the shuttering and bashing of our energy industry and NOW even more defendant on other nations.
UNFIT.
Ill take crazy Max. What do we have to lose Garth?

Your vote. – Garth

#11 Linda on 03.23.22 at 11:40 am

‘Faye’ has the cat philosophy down pat:) As someone put it, ‘Cats were once worshipped as gods. They have never forgotten this’.

Given the inflation numbers in the USA thus far in 2022 can’t say Powell’s pronouncement of taking strong action to curb it is a surprise. Given that supply chain pressure & disruption is continuing to be an issue – certainly the invasion of Ukraine, more outbreaks of Covid in China resulting in lockdowns of important manufacturing sectors & major shipping port(s), the rail dispute (now resolved) here in Canada etc. haven’t helped – can’t see inflation slowing down any time soon despite CB’s taking action. I’m just presuming the intent is to apply a gentle braking action, not slam the economy into a standstill or reverse. So expect a .50 jump in the CB rate but would be shocked if it were more.

#12 Dr V on 03.23.22 at 11:54 am

We had a kitty just like Faye!

#13 RichardTO on 03.23.22 at 11:57 am

Nutcase in the Kremlin? The US State Department had their hands all over the 2014 coup d’etat that propelled Ukraine on a collision course with Russia. Do you think a world leader is a cartoon caricature villain?

The US Dollar as a global reserve currency is now going to be challenged as trade and diplomacy with China and other non-aligned actors like India break-down. This story is currently flying under the radar, but the US just sanctioned Chinese officials because they refuse to condemn Russia:

>https://www.cbsnews.com/news/us-sanctions-china-genocide-persecution-uyghurs-other-religious-minorities/

“Washington — U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken announced new visa restrictions on Chinese officials Monday for their actions to repress ethnic and religious minorities both inside and outside the country. In a statement, which provided no specific details on which officials would be targeted with the new sanctions, Blinken also reiterated a call for China to “end its ongoing genocide and crimes against humanity” in the northwestern region of Xinjiang.”

Expect counter-sanctions. Russia just announced that hostile European states will be required to purchase their critical natural gas supplies IN ROUBLES (currently USD), which means that if the Europeans want heat and to cook their food, they will have to purchase Russian currency.
Collapse in demand for the USD in global energy trade will mean that the US Fed can no longer print 20-30% of the money supply again without consequences, and to combat the resultant extreme inflationary pressures, they will have to raise rates to 10% or more. The consequences of that are unknowable.

We’re in for a very rough ride.

The US$ will be the global reserve currency for your entire life, and far beyond. – Garth

#14 SeeBee on 03.23.22 at 11:57 am

#165 IHCTD9 on 03.23.22 at 8:42 am
#150 Observer on 03.22.22 at 11:12 pm

No offence bud, but dildos like you vote for this shit-show. I got tens of thousands worth in CCB even though we structured our lives around the need to finance having kids right from the get-go. I never needed a damn dime of it. No fellow Canuck should be forced to support our decision to have kids. The cut-off for CCB is sky high. I spent my CCB cheques at the local YAMAHA dealer. Trudeau is a dunce.

—————-

Same with any pharmacare, dental care, or childcare benefits. Costs will be much less if we focus on who really needs them.

^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^

One thing you both should consider is that when you introduce means testing into any social benefit, you have to create a sprawling bureaucracy to support it. You then need forms, procedures, a legion of case workers, legal remedies, court time… The costs of determining who is actually “in need” can often be more than just providing the benefit across the board.

Yeah, you didn’t “need” it, but plenty of people who do got it, and didn’t need to jump through a million hoops to get it. Spending it on consumer goods just puts it back into the economy. If you feel that “guilty” about it, then you can just plow it into your local community and support the economy there.

#15 Practical Pragmatist on 03.23.22 at 11:59 am

I read a lot of the political arguments here. Bottom line is I like most people, voted left of center the last three elections because A) consistent Conservative bringing up the abortion issue. B) claims the Conservative party is the economic party while the evidence is contrary
That said, I am not a Liberal, or on the left. The current government spends at a terrifying pace, if you look at the conservative leaders the only one with a chance of unseating the parties centre left is Charest. Poilievre is too angry and too combative to ever be the pragmatic leader Canada requires to unify the wide ranging views that our country has. Join the Conservative party, vote for Charest. Pray the damage between now and 2025 is reversible.

#16 Ballingsford on 03.23.22 at 12:14 pm

Going back to the office a few days a month may be OK. Used to get more exercise leaving the house. Better selection of lunch choices downtown than making my own.
Might shop around for a new clothes dryer too. We have a new one but it has shrunk all my pants. Can barely fasten them. Setting must be too hot. Didn’t shrink my sweatpants though.

#17 Philco on 03.23.22 at 12:23 pm

Ill take crazy Max. What do we have to lose Garth?
Your vote. – Garth
———————–
I normally don’t vote because our system is failing. Its heading at warp speed down the path of socialism and Im one of the guys that’s getting the bill..
I voted against T2 and look where were are now. The guy pulls in extra ordinary powers whenever it suits him as we live in a world of ongoing “crisis” which seems to be convenient as hell for him. Teflon man shit doesn’t stick to him..

#18 IHCTD9 on 03.23.22 at 12:28 pm

#1 Observer on 03.23.22 at 10:58 am

Weird how you claim to be able to read my mind. FYI, I have voted Conservative in the past and would again if they would stop trying to emulate Trump Republicans. Also, I have never praised Trudeau. Is the your world always so black and white?
______

I apologize for calling you a dildo, I got a little carried away last night.

But I still think that there is no way you would ever vote conservative, no matter how high the house prices, no matter how huge the debt, no matter how insane the plan got.

Things could be getting pretty ugly over the next few years, and a lot of that ugliness will be traceable back to Trudeau’s years of fiscal policy inaction.

#19 Flop… on 03.23.22 at 12:41 pm

Ever since 2015, the Conservatives have been arguing over who gets to keep the wishbone of the chicken.

Meanwhile the Liberals and the NDP have taken the chicken over to the next table and nearly eaten it bear.

Better hurry up boys, while there is still some meat on the bones, pretty soon Canada will just be a carcass.

I guess then it will be easier to get the wishbone…

M47BC

#20 Faron on 03.23.22 at 12:51 pm

Have met several people at the dog park with adorable young dogs that they recently adopted. Likely pandemic pups that have been lucky.

Twitter equity trader I followed (stopped after his Ukraine takes got too annoying) referred to junk equities/ETFs needing to return to their pre wu-flu (his phrase not mine) level. ARKK was one. Real estate is on that list…

#177 Sail Away on 03.23.22 at 10:40 am

Hmm, the routines don’t seem to work for your self-control. Yukon Elvis mentioned bupropion which is good for addiction as well as mood. Look into it! Us GF amateur psychologists are here to help. We don’t want too much SAGIness

#21 RichardTO on 03.23.22 at 12:54 pm

>The US$ will be the global reserve currency for your entire life, and far beyond. – Garth

You’re assuming there is a captain at the wheel. You censored my last comment about Western leadership, which I believe is correct – that the leadership class here is a cosmopolitan clique of morally, spiritually bankrupt thieves with no national loyalty, and it is reflected in the downward spiral of the societies.

The USD-backed global ponzi may go on for a few more years, but I’ll be shedding US exposure gradually as things develop.

#22 Sail Away on 03.23.22 at 12:58 pm

WFO, huh? Who could’ve guessed?

Once again, the SA office seems to have been ahead of the curve, being full WFO routine business as usual for 23 of the last 24 months.

In other news, my favourite singularity company is +20% from end-of-January position, August miners chillaxing at +37%, and Nasdaq100 +5% from latest spree of dip-buying.

Weirdly, acting opposite human emotions works for investing nearly all the time. The secret sauce, if you will.

#23 Km on 03.23.22 at 1:04 pm

So if you didn’t need the CCB why didn’t you just donate the money to a shelter or any other community based program in need? Everyone who complains about the money being given even when it shouldn’t be still spends it. Plenty applied for CERB when they had enough saved to use instead, funny how that works isn’t it. I believe the justification always is that if it is given we will take, you are no better than the person handing the money out not bothering to see if the ones taking are even in need.

#24 DON on 03.23.22 at 1:05 pm

https://spca.bc.ca/news/119-dogs/

Already started…unfortunately.

#25 jess on 03.23.22 at 1:22 pm

dinks :dual income no kids to sinks single income never kids

Lack of quality renters?

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-11-01/zillow-selling-7-000-homes-for-2-8-billion-after-flipping-halt?cmpid=BBD110121_BIZ&utm_medium=email&utm_source=newsletter&utm_term=211101&utm_campaign=bloombergdaily&sref=UBkQzfj0

small vs large
iBuying
high-tech home-flipping business.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-11-01/zillow-selling-7-000-homes-for-2-8-billion-after-flipping-halt?cmpid=BBD110121_BIZ&utm_medium=email&utm_source=newsletter&utm_term=211101&utm_campaign=bloombergdaily&sref=UBkQzfj0

https://mfi-miami.com/2021/09/new-york-eviction-ban/
…when renters can’t pay rent and utilities.= landlords and other companies can’t make mortgages and bond payments.”
https://mfi-miami.com/2021/09/eviction-moratoriums-force-landlords-to-liquidate-properties/

https://www.rentcafe.com/blog/rental-market/market-snapshots/picket-fences-for-rent-100-suburbs-turned-renter-majority-this-decade/

communities of single-family houses built for the purpose of renting trend in housing?
https://www.rentcafe.com/blog/rental-market/market-snapshots/built-to-rent-single-family-homes-double-in-2022/

#26 Michael in-north-york on 03.23.22 at 1:23 pm

#13 RichardTO on 03.23.22 at 11:57 am
===

Aren’t you tired of lying about Ukraine. Or do you just want to keep your master in kremlin happy.

Ukraine was quite friendly to Russia till 2014. The government change that occurred there in 2014 wouldn’t change that. No more than Trudeau replacing Harper changed the Canada – U.S. relations back in 2015.

Russia, or more accurately Putin, organized the conflict with Ukraine in 2014. Motivated entirely by Putin’s domestic troubles. When you can’t rule wisely and keep your people happy, but want to remain in power, then just start a war and divert the attention of your own subjects.

When the kremlin’s propaganda is lying, they have a purpose. But why some people here are repeating their lies, is beyond me. Are they paid trolls, or just useful idiots.

#27 G on 03.23.22 at 1:24 pm

Some might also be interested.
Article on green

Hydrogen Generator.
https://www.pv-magazine.com/2022/03/16/australian-electrolyzer-invention-enables-green-hydrogen-under-us2-kg-by-mid-2020s/?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=facebook

#28 MattG on 03.23.22 at 1:26 pm

Garth, do you really believe rates will go up?
No way, housing bubble is safe until 2025

#29 Bitcoin Bro on 03.23.22 at 1:30 pm

“The US$ will be the global reserve currency for your entire life, and far beyond. – Garth ”

I take it you haven’t read Ray Dalio’s latest work on this topic? If not, I highly recommend it.

Historically speaking, in the modern era of captialism (~1500 – today), reserve currencies have had a shelf-life of about 100 years, give or take, and usually with a decade or two overlap with the rising reserve currency.

Considering how sick the USA is as a country literally (as in the health of it’s citizens), politically (chaotic elections in 2022 and 2024 seem inevitable), and financially (the most epic government debt in world history) … I’m scratching my head on your take here.

The USA is a world empire in decline by many, many objective and quantifiable measures. Dalio’s book goes into these measurements comprehensively but there are many other sources that analyze this topic.

Thanks again for the blog… while I don’t always agree with your takes, I always enjoy reading :)

#30 Felix on 03.23.22 at 1:33 pm

An acceptable photo. Good to meet you, Faye.

The fellow espressobob sounds like a good servant.

And yes, cats can write.

(Dogs can hump telephone poles and cost you thousands in vet bills and bylaw tickets)

#31 Guill O'Tiene on 03.23.22 at 1:35 pm

Brent crude is at US$120 a barrel as we speak.

Unfortunately, the oil dictators rejoice, and so will Adam Vaughan supporting them to buy Canadian real estate.

#32 Observer on 03.23.22 at 1:47 pm

#18 IHCTD9 “But I still think that there is no way you would ever vote conservative, no matter how high the house prices, no matter how huge the debt, no matter how insane the plan got.”

^^^^^^^^^^^^
As I said, I have voted Conservative in the not too distant past. But I won’t next time if PP becomes leader, or anyone who espouses Trumpian views.

#33 Concerned Citizen on 03.23.22 at 1:58 pm

I’ll continue to believe it when I see it. Jerome Powell has intervened/reversed course every single time the asset markets have had a hiccup. Just as his predecessors (Yellen, Bernanke) did. Should rates go meaningfully higher, there will invariably be a hiccup or worse in asset markets. Why should we believe Powell will behave different when that happens? This is a man who continued printing over a $100B a month in the face of 5% inflation for almost a year, all because he didn’t want to upset the bubble markets he enabled.

I have no faith that he – or any of the other major western central bankers – will actually do their job and rein in inflation. When forced to trade choose between asset markets and inflation, they’ll choose asset markets every time. They wouldn’t want their stock portfolios or “Mom and Pop” residential real estate empires take a hit, after all.

#34 THE DANDADA on 03.23.22 at 2:00 pm

“The US$ will be the global reserve currency for your entire life, and far beyond.” – Garth

“Russia will continue, of course, to supply natural gas in accordance with volumes and prices … fixed in previously concluded contracts,” Putin said at a televised meeting with top government ministers.

“The changes will only affect the currency of payment, which will be CHANGED to Russian rubles,” he said.

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/03/23/putin-wants-unfriendly-countries-to-pay-for-russian-gas-in-roubles.html

WATCH AND LEARN. The dollar is going to ZERO!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gOvmwQ84MWg

Who wants rubles? – Garth

#35 Prince Polo on 03.23.22 at 2:03 pm

Is the “Roaring 20s” thesis still intact? Seems like aggressive tightening will lead to slamming the consumer discretionary’ed lemmings into the wall.

You means the ones who bought too much house and have no money to spend anyway? – Garth

#36 Thisisagoodname on 03.23.22 at 2:06 pm

That is one beautiful cat. We have a Tortie too. They definitely have the best personalities! Mine is affectionate and super playful – my toddler and other cat’s goofy buddy! But also is a baked goods thief, cat carrier escape artist (I guess she knows the vet’s on the other side of the car ride) and a plant destroyer. We learned our lesson and stopped having plants a few years ago :)

#37 Ronaldo on 03.23.22 at 2:16 pm

#16 Ballingsford on 03.23.22 at 12:14 pm
Going back to the office a few days a month may be OK. Used to get more exercise leaving the house. Better selection of lunch choices downtown than making my own.
Might shop around for a new clothes dryer too. We have a new one but it has shrunk all my pants. Can barely fasten them. Setting must be too hot. Didn’t shrink my sweatpants though.
—————————————————————
Have you checked your waist measurements lately. Maybe buy a new scale while your at it.

#38 Faron on 03.23.22 at 2:24 pm

#32 Observer on 03.23.22 at 1:47 pm

Seems IHTCD9 is forgetting that the political landscape is more than one dimensional (i.e. a line). Canada ain’t the US (yet). Ideally the DOF would be proportional to the number of parties.

Gosh, almost time to, again, plug the progressive conservative Alberta Party and what they stand for. They’ll eat Kenney’s lunch at some point.

#39 Al on 03.23.22 at 2:28 pm

Not everything is so clear with our future, with inflation or stagflation, with whether real estate prices remain high or fall. Everything in this world is cyclical, oil, crises, etc. So let’s wait and see

#40 Søren Angst on 03.23.22 at 2:33 pm

#22 Sail Away

There you go again.

Way back in time (ignoring a war just happened).

Let me know your last 30 days performance.

#41 Dr V on 03.23.22 at 2:36 pm

23 Km

“Plenty applied for CERB when they had enough saved to use instead, funny how that works isn’t it.”
————————————————-

CERB was meant to replace income that was lost due to government-enacted measures that reduced or eliminated one’s ability to work and earn income.

Had nothing to do with how much somebody had (or had not) saved.

Disclosure – I did not receive CERB. My spouse did.

#42 [email protected] on 03.23.22 at 2:38 pm

My man El-Erian’s got it right: better to make the mistake of letting inflation go than send the economy into a recession. Boom baby, not much room to ratchet up.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=meLUXzBa_GQ

Before I’m accused of motivated reasoning I’m mortgage-free and packing prefs.

#43 Captain Uppa on 03.23.22 at 2:41 pm

Guess who’s back!

However, I have a different tale to tell.

As someone who bought a home in early 2016, I became tied to the housing market in a way that made me lustful for rising home prices. Not because I am greedy, but because I paid a ton (I thought) in 2016 and it’s normal to want to see that large asset grow.

But now I see the error of my ways.

I continually see nice, small homes being gobbled up by people from richer areas only to rent out every single inch of it to riff raff. Not that all renters are riff raff, but when profit is number one, landlords will let anyone in.

Not only that, but I have seen realtors and contractors get way too comfortable and arrogant. At least contractors produce something.

So there you have it. I am kind of now rooting for downa, Downa, DOWNA!

Not because I want to see people get hurt, but to see the ones who have done the hurt get their just desserts.

Tough situation.

#44 Søren Angst on 03.23.22 at 2:43 pm

#13 RichardTO

FYI:

Italia has a 1 year supply of oil and gas on hand.

The EU will reduce Russian gas dependency by 2/3 year end. 0% dependent on Russia by 2030 (worst cases scenario, my guess is much, much earlier).

EU replenishing stocks for NEXT Winter (2023 if you can’t do the Math).

https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/detail/en/ip_22_1511

———————–

You need to Unfollow:

President of Russia
@KremlinRussia_E

on Twitter. Seriously, you do.

Russia will be 3rd World long before the EU runs out of oil and gas due to them.

#45 Dr V on 03.23.22 at 2:51 pm

33 Concerned

“They wouldn’t want their stock portfolios or ‘Mom and
Pop’ residential real estate empires take a hit, after all.”
————————————————-

Asset value is over-rated. My house is maybe $1M, but if I sell, I’m probably buying back-in soon thereafter. A
30% drop in value does not worry me.

My portfolio has responded to the recent volatility well,
thanks to a B & D which had a healthy helping of maple
dividend payors. Some of my holdings will do fine/good
with inflation. I dont really care if the values drop, as this lowers the taxes paid for re-balancing, and allows purchases at better prices and yields. Some of those businesses could actually raise dividends, either
increasing my income or allowing to purchase more shares with DRIP.

Could be an opportunity.

#46 Philco on 03.23.22 at 2:51 pm

Who wants rubles? – Garth
—————————
I’ve heard it for 20 years “the USD is used toilet paper” while its still the best toilet paper going. Gold bugs are the worst on that gig.

My plan in this crazy world.
As discussed with your guys.
Consolidate my 2 companies-almost done
get a will completed – almost done
Had to accelerate my new commercial warehouse plans as costs are rocketing. Building Mats easy 20% last year.
Plus the lease will provide about 12-15% return.
Then finally open a corp. investment account with TN.
I’ve had a pile of decisions to make and the nutty ass world has changed my direction due to blistering inflation.
I am very concerned about possible confiscation or massive taxes on guys like me. Also considered just keeping what I have and moving some to another country because of Mr. Clueless..
Like diversification, maybe to many assets under the all see all taxing out of control gov.
Am I being dramatic Garth??

#47 Ballingsford on 03.23.22 at 2:52 pm

#37 Ronaldo on 03.23.22 at 2:16 pm
#16 Ballingsford on 03.23.22 at 12:14 pm
Might shop around for a new clothes dryer too. We have a new one but it has shrunk all my pants. Can barely fasten them. Setting must be too hot. Didn’t shrink my sweatpants though.
—————————————————————
Have you checked your waist measurements lately. Maybe buy a new scale while your at it.
******
Thanks for the scales tip, I checked it and it’s broken. It’s off by about 10-15 lbs. No longer accurate. Time for a new one.

#48 valleyranter on 03.23.22 at 3:01 pm

Buddy of mine just sold his place for 1.2 out in bunnypatch. His realtor told him if he had it ready two weeks earlier he would have got 1.4 for it.

#49 RichardTO on 03.23.22 at 3:06 pm

>#44 Søren Angst on 03.23.22 at 2:43 pm

“Italia has a 1 year supply of oil and gas on hand.”

Even if that’s true, Italy was not singled out as a “hostile” nation IIRC, so they’re not really affected.

Poland, Western Ukraine, Germany, Baltics, the UK, the Netherlands are all pooched. France being the only EU country with a rational energy policy (aka nuclear power), is laughing, all the way to the bank.

North American producers will be happy as well, to bad Canada failed to develop any pipelines to either coast…

#50 Divv on 03.23.22 at 3:19 pm

Good times inbound for those that eat or use energy forms of any kind. Inflation moonbound, gang:

Trafigura’s co-head of oil said the market could see crude hit $150 a barrel this summer and that the total loss of Russian oil would become clearer in April. “I think you will see record backwardation and you will see $150 a barrel this summer,” Trafigura’s Ben Luckock told the FT Commodities Global Summit, adding that north of $200 was also possible. Backwardation is a market structure where the front month is higher than the following, which can signal tight supplies.
“You’ll know at the end of April what the total loss of Russian oil is. As it stands right now, there’s a vast amount of Russian oil there…Russians have cancelled crude cargoes and stored some (that haven’t sold).”

#51 Philco on 03.23.22 at 3:19 pm

46 Philco
LOL Typo was TI not TN thats a diff outfit.
Doing all without banks then will have large cash flow…

#52 IHCTD9 on 03.23.22 at 3:22 pm

#41 Dr V on 03.23.22 at 2:36 pm
23 Km

“Plenty applied for CERB when they had enough saved to use instead, funny how that works isn’t it.”
————————————————-

CERB was meant to replace income that was lost due to government-enacted measures that reduced or eliminated one’s ability to work and earn income.

Had nothing to do with how much somebody had (or had not) saved.

Disclosure – I did not receive CERB. My spouse did.
_____

I was on CERB for a few months. Just got a “notice of debt”, they want me to pay 2K back doh!

No problem. I’m even sorta glad they’re out there trying to mitigate some of the spending orgy that was 2020. But, I bet a lot of folks who will be getting the same letter are going to have a big problem.

#53 RichardTO on 03.23.22 at 3:23 pm

@Garth
“Who wants rubles? – Garth”

Nancy Pelosi’s bumwipe units (USD) isn’t very appealing either. What’s so great about a governing body (Congress) that almost every year takes America to the brink of default? Or a jurisdiction that seizes the central bank reserves and assets of others as a measure to compel obedience and fealty? You don’t think the rest of the world isn’t observing carefully the chicanery of the past few years?

The Petrodollar has only been a thing since WW2. That’s a blink of an eye in the history of the world. The world changes.

#54 IHCTD9 on 03.23.22 at 3:25 pm

#48 valleyranter on 03.23.22 at 3:01 pm
Buddy of mine just sold his place for 1.2 out in bunnypatch. His realtor told him if he had it ready two weeks earlier he would have got 1.4 for it.
_____

Tell him to pat himself on the back. I don’t think it’s going to last much longer.

#55 Steven on 03.23.22 at 3:26 pm

Mr. Powell has raised rates ONCE and still hasn’t cut back the money supply.

IF he was serious about the “I” word, he wouldn’t be talking, he’d be DOING.

2 more hikes and see if he can stand the heat coming from people not anything else as the ESG group won’t allow it.

#56 leebow on 03.23.22 at 3:30 pm

#13 RichardTO

You misunderstand the purpose of this whole “Gas for Rubles” scheme. No need to make up the BS theories about world dominance and reserve status. There is a very mundane explanation.

There will be only two traders selling Rubles for Euros. Both will belong to Putin’s buddies. So on top of everything else, Putin is gonna be charging the spread on all transactions. Someone has to pay for the seized yachts, right? That piece of shit Putin is gonna die with his hand in Russia’s pocket.

Which reminds of an old Soviet joke. A guy comes to the newspaper stand every morning and only glances at the first page. After a few days the newspaper man asks him – what are you doing?
– Oh, I’m just looking for an obituary.
– But the obituaries are on the last page.
– The obituary I’m waiting for is going to be on the first page.

#57 willworkforpickles on 03.23.22 at 3:35 pm

In regard to Garth’s response to RichardTO post #13

“The US$ will be the global reserve currency for your entire life, and far beyond. – Garth”
…………………………………………………………………………………………………..

I’d have to say there are millions beyond North American Borders around the world that will call you out in a more or less critical sense on that statement .
Its gone well beyond consensus among the world leaders that want this. I can agree it won’t happen until 2 key players (Europe&China) restructure and get their own economies off their knees. They already have alternate transfer systems in place now and will perfect those to functional alignment no question. Once their economies are fully restructured and reformed to the world economic powerhouses they are destined to become , give it 2 or 3 years, a replacement currency will most assuredly emerge . Most figure China. My bet is with Europe with a re-structured Euro.

I know you disagree Garth . North Americans as a whole, those that are aware… can vehemently object to this. It just won’t change what those nations fully intend to do about it.

#58 Michael in-north-york on 03.23.22 at 3:37 pm

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/03/23/putin-wants-unfriendly-countries-to-pay-for-russian-gas-in-roubles.html

This is a nothingburger. The Russians need foreign cash no less than the Europeans need their oil and gas.

The outcome is that the Russians will set up a new trading company, that will accept the European payments in the contact currencies, i.e. euros and dollars. That trading company will then sell the euros and dollars to the Russian government, get the roubles, and pay the oil and gas producers with those roubles.

No change for the Europeans, they still pay in euros and dollars. But yes, Putin will score a few points domestically by claiming that his fossil fuels are traded in roubles.

#59 I don't know on 03.23.22 at 3:39 pm

The US$ will be the global reserve currency for your entire life, and far beyond. – Garth

Absolutely.

What people who challenge this do not appear to comprehend is that it’s not that the US doesn’t have it faults, it’s that everyone else is worse. There are no competitor currencies for miles. On the contrary, everyone else is losing ground in this regard.

If you need proof, just look at the events of the past month. If the USD had 50 years left of reserve currency status, that has just been extended to 100.

#29 Bitcoin Bro on 03.23.22 at 1:30 pm

Ray’s book is good fiction and theory. But that’s where it ends.

Why? The US doesn’t actually have an “empire” in the traditional sense that can collapse like previous ones. Nor does it necessarily have a “sphere of influence” like other countries.

This is also ignoring the far superior geography and demographics of the US.

IDK

#60 Brian on 03.23.22 at 3:41 pm

Mislav Kolakusic MEP, Member of the European Parliament, former judge, non-affiliated activist for the rule of law and fighter against corruption.

PM Trudeau, in recent months, under your quasi-liberal boot, Canada has become a symbol of civil rights violations. The methods we have witnessed may be liberal to you, but to many citizens around the world it seemed like a dictatorship of the worst kind.

https://twitter.com/mislavkolakusic/status/1506702485225938949

#61 Sail Away on 03.23.22 at 3:42 pm

#40 Søren Angst on 03.23.22 at 2:33 pm
#22 Sail Away

There you go again.

Way back in time (ignoring a war just happened).

Let me know your last 30 days performance.

——–

Sigh. Here you go, last 30 days:

Miners (BHP, VALE, LIF.TO, NTR): +18.7% avg.
TSLA: +32.5%
Nasdaq 100 (XQQ.TO): 8.4%

Average 30-day return of above: 19.16%

It’s not a contest. But if it were… how’d you do?

#62 Chappy on 03.23.22 at 3:43 pm

You are usually right Garth, but I pray you are wrong about the puppies

#63 Steve on 03.23.22 at 3:43 pm

Bonds, I know boring but I have question.
How much are they gonna keep falling? Right now the aggregate Canadian bond ETFs are down -10% from the 52 week high. Is it gonna be another -10% or less or more?

#64 Ustabe on 03.23.22 at 3:48 pm

“The Prime Minister should work with the people occupying downtown Ottawa!” – CPC, February 2022

“How dare the Prime Minister work with the NDP!!” – CPC, March 2022 ”

September, 2014 Stephan Harper’s Conservative Party of Canada petitions the then Governor General Adrienne Clarkson to dissolve the Liberal minority government as he (Harper) has formed a union with both the NDP and the Bloc and would like to become the governing coalition.

It is during times such as these that we need to keep our hands on the wheel and our eyes on the road. Not distracted by who is a dildo or who gets up real early in the day.

Don’t make me bust out the turkey pen analogy again, apparently no one got it the first time so I’d need a paragraph or two to explain it further…

#65 Sail Away on 03.23.22 at 3:50 pm

#20 Faron on 03.23.22 at 12:51 pm

Us GF amateur psychologists are here to help.

——–

‘We’ GF amateur…

I, too, am here to help.

#66 IHCTD9 on 03.23.22 at 4:07 pm

#43 Captain Uppa on 03.23.22 at 2:41 pm
Guess who’s back!

However, I have a different tale to tell.

As someone who bought a home in early 2016, I became tied to the housing market in a way that made me lustful for rising home prices. Not because I am greedy, but because I paid a ton (I thought) in 2016 and it’s normal to want to see that large asset grow.

But now I see the error of my ways.

I continually see nice, small homes being gobbled up by people from richer areas only to rent out every single inch of it to riff raff. Not that all renters are riff raff, but when profit is number one, landlords will let anyone in.

Not only that, but I have seen realtors and contractors get way too comfortable and arrogant. At least contractors produce something.

So there you have it. I am kind of now rooting for downa, Downa, DOWNA!

Not because I want to see people get hurt, but to see the ones who have done the hurt get their just desserts.

Tough situation.

I hereby christen thee “Cap’n Downa”.

Nonno says: “Now a da houses – she a go downa.”

#67 Logic and Reason on 03.23.22 at 4:08 pm

There are 161 houses for sale on MLS in Mission BC. This is an extraordinarily high number and it looks like the speculators are trying to bail out.

#68 Logic and Reason on 03.23.22 at 4:10 pm

‘No shared walls’: Why someone just paid a whopping $520K for a manufactured home in Coquitlam

https://www.tricitynews.com/local-news/no-shared-walls-why-someone-just-paid-a-whopping-520k-for-a-manufactured-home-in-coquitlam-5186833

#69 Logic and Reason on 03.23.22 at 4:13 pm

Coquitlam home with heated pool sells $500K over asking after multiple offers in a single day.

https://www.tricitynews.com/local-news/coquitlam-home-with-heated-pool-sells-500k-over-asking-after-multiple-offers-in-a-single-day-5175189

There is something really wrong with the system when a 23 year old kid with a high school education is selling 3+ million dollar houses in Coquitlam.

#70 Brian on 03.23.22 at 4:14 pm

From reliable sources is that NATO is drafting a resolution to apply sanctions to China for supporting Russia, which will be announced at the upcoming NATO summit meeting.

Looks like more supply shortages coming!

#71 millmech on 03.23.22 at 4:15 pm

Envision Credit Union 1 year fixed rate open mortgage 6.3%.

#72 Observer on 03.23.22 at 4:24 pm

#64 Ustabe

“Don’t make me bust out the turkey pen analogy again”

^^^^^^^^^^^^
Did I miss something?

#73 Alberta Ed on 03.23.22 at 4:28 pm

Scary to think how rising interest rates will affect Canada’s mounting debt. The Canadian Taxpayers Federation digital National Debt Clock is currently touring Alberta. The clock, mounted on the side of a truck, is new as the previous one established in the 90’s did not have enough digits to show the current $1.1 trillion debt.

#74 Sail Away on 03.23.22 at 4:53 pm

#64 Ustabe on 03.23.22 at 3:48 pm

It is during times such as these that we need to keep our hands on the wheel and our eyes on the road. Not distracted by who is a dildo or who gets up real early in the day.

——-

I get up early so they can’t sneak in

#75 Justin B on 03.23.22 at 4:56 pm

My high school crush and I recently got engaged a year after I started my own medical clinic. I forgave her for getting me suspended in Grade 12 for a false sexual harassment claim.

We are planning to buy a home in the GTA and she has agreed to be onboard to start a family together. I am willing to pay up to $150,000 over asking for the sake of my genetic lineage and for my future wife.

I didn’t spend years in Medical School to become a genetic dead end. This is why we pay a premium for Canadian housing.

#76 Sail Away on 03.23.22 at 5:00 pm

#20 Faron on 03.23.22 at 12:51 pm

#177 Sail Away on 03.23.22 at 10:40 am

Hmm, the routines don’t seem to work for your self-control.

———

????

What about self-control?

#77 PeterfromCalgary on 03.23.22 at 5:01 pm

Food is what we need to worry about.

Ukraine supplies 9% of global wheat exports. Russia supplies 24%.

“In 2021, Russia was the world’s top exporter of nitrogen fertilizers and the second-largest supplier of both potassic and phosphorous fertilizers, according to the U.N. Food and Agriculture Organization.” (https://www.cnbc.com/2022/03/22/fertilizer-prices-are-at-record-highs-heres-what-that-means.html)

We could have a food crisis soon that may cause social unrest in poor countries further damaging global trade. I don’t hear anything from our “leaders” about what they are going to do to prevent starvation in poor countries.

#78 mike from mtl on 03.23.22 at 5:07 pm

#63 Steve on 03.23.22 at 3:43 pm
Bonds, I know boring but I have question.
How much are they gonna keep falling?

Sounds like VAB/ZAG. Cherrypicking for sp500 looks dumpy as well.

My guess for another year or two max then the rate cuts start, market is pricing that in for ’23.

Problem with short bond ETFs is they trade volatility for crappy performance, check some, most are in the 1-2% total return.

Mid to long ones can have crappy years, like this one, so far but the 30 year downward trend speaks volumes.

#79 The Original Jake on 03.23.22 at 5:17 pm

Those “bunnypatch” sellers should add upward pressure on city core (GTA) prices even in the face of increasing rates. At least for the next year anyway as one by one employees get their RTO notices.

#80 Squire on 03.23.22 at 5:24 pm

#13 RichardTO on 03.23.22 at 11:57 am

….We’re in for a very rough ride.

The US$ will be the global reserve currency for your entire life, and far beyond. – Garth

————–> RichardTO
Not many worldwide want to touch Roubles and in fact, the Yuan is not popular either.

“Never bet against America,” Warren Buffett

#81 Bob Dog on 03.23.22 at 5:26 pm

Diversity is Strength MoFos!

Endless economic growth to satiate the psychopath ultra capitalists.

Methane is good for the atmosphere. Just work harder and get the TSX to record highs.

Pay no mind to Russia. Probably hall of their nukes won’t work.

#82 Prince Polo on 03.23.22 at 5:26 pm

#35 Prince Polo on 03.23.22 at 2:03 pm
Is the “Roaring 20s” thesis still intact? Seems like aggressive tightening will lead to slamming the consumer discretionary’ed lemmings into the wall.

You means the ones who bought too much house and have no money to spend anyway? – Garth

Yessir! Those exact ones. I fear the shiny new Bunnypatch HELOCs won’t be available either.

Oh well. Loser renters like me have to put up with all these fat stacks for Maritimes vacays and lobster…
*wipes away tears with a Borden*

#83 yorkville renter on 03.23.22 at 5:44 pm

#43 – cap’n Uppa.

colour me SHOCKED (genuinely) that you are wanting and perhaps expected a decline… wow.

_____________

I am seeing more interesting properties come up and the melee to bid has subsided… however, we made up our mind to NOT buy now (will wait a few more years) and even if prices remain flat (RBC base case) or even decline 30% (RBC worst case) we’ll be in a financially superior position to buy even better property than what’s there today at today’s prices.

I’d rather owe $750K at 5% interest than $1mm at 2.5% interest.

WAY easier to start accelerated payback when you start $250k lower!

#84 Shawn on 03.23.22 at 5:55 pm

“Silliest” Comment of the Day?

#23 Km on 03.23.22 at 1:04 pm

So if you didn’t need the CCB why didn’t you just donate the money to a shelter or any other community based program in need?

*************************
Maybe because of a little thing called self interest or just intelligence that most of us have?

I think the guy told ya it because he liked “sort of” free Yamahas.

#85 IHCTD9 on 03.23.22 at 5:57 pm

DELETED (Enough)

#86 Ponzius Pilatus on 03.23.22 at 6:00 pm

#71 millmech on 03.23.22 at 4:15 pm
Envision Credit Union 1 year fixed rate open mortgage 6.3%.
—————–
Either fixed or open.
Which one is it?

#87 Brian on 03.23.22 at 6:03 pm

Quebec premier warns Liberal-NDP pact will trigger confrontation with provinces

https://nationalpost.com/news/politics/quebec-premier-warns-liberal-ndp-pact-will-trigger-confrontation-with-provinces?utm_medium=Social&utm_source=Twitter#Echobox=1648071664

#88 Michael in-north-york on 03.23.22 at 6:10 pm

#77 PeterfromCalgary on 03.23.22 at 5:01 pm

Food is what we need to worry about.

Ukraine supplies 9% of global wheat exports. Russia supplies 24%.

“In 2021, Russia was the world’s top exporter of nitrogen fertilizers and the second-largest supplier of both potassic and phosphorous fertilizers, according to the U.N. Food and Agriculture Organization.” (https://www.cnbc.com/2022/03/22/fertilizer-prices-are-at-record-highs-heres-what-that-means.html)

We could have a food crisis soon that may cause social unrest in poor countries further damaging global trade. I don’t hear anything from our “leaders” about what they are going to do to prevent starvation in poor countries.
===

True. Unfortunately, the damage is already done. Even if Ukraine and Russia were to sign a truce tomorrow – that doesn’t look likely – the agricultural work schedule is already interrupted and the production will be lower than normal.

All that comes to mind at this point, please only buy the food you need, and avoid any food waste. Maybe, grow some vegetables in your backyard if that’s practical. That way, Canada will be able to sell a bit more food abroad.

#89 Ponzius Pilatus on 03.23.22 at 6:10 pm

#81 Bob Dog on 03.23.22 at 5:26 pm
Diversity is Strength MoFos!

Endless economic growth to satiate the psychopath ultra capitalists.

Methane is good for the atmosphere. Just work harder and get the TSX to record highs.

Pay no mind to Russia. Probably hall of their nukes won’t work.
—————–
Well, I would not take the chance.
Only a few have to work.

#90 AllsOK on 03.23.22 at 6:14 pm

$SPX During Quad Witch Options expiration last Friday MORE CONTRACTS TRADED HERE THAN PRETTY MUCH IN AN ENTIRE YEAR…in two days or so…it was a giant gamma squeeze and the unwind of this could have very negative implications. The volume here indicates very large players. Not likely hedge funds.

#91 Peter in Toronto on 03.23.22 at 6:17 pm

Interesting discussion about the US Dollar, here’s a relevant quote from a notable economist:

“In the absence of the gold standard, there is no way to protect savings from confiscation through inflation. There is no safe store of value. If there were, the government would have to make its holding illegal, as was done in the case of gold. If everyone decided, for example, to convert all his bank deposits to silver or copper or any other good, and thereafter declined to accept checks as payment for goods, bank deposits would lose their purchasing power, and government-created bank credit would be worthless as a claim on goods.
The financial policy of the welfare state requires that there be no way for the owners of wealth to protect themselves.
The law of supply and demand is not to be conned. As the supply of money-claims increases relative to the supply of tangible assets in the economy, prices must eventually rise. Thus the earnings saved by the productive of the society lose value in terms of goods. When the economy’s books are finally balanced, one finds that this loss in value represents the goods purchased by the government for welfare or other purposes with the money proceeds of the government government bonds financed by bank credit expansion.”

– Alan Greenspan

Yes, he actually wrote this. Don’t worry Mr. Greenspan, we have Bitcoin now.

#92 Under the radar on 03.23.22 at 6:28 pm

#86 a mortgage can be fixed rate and open. the two are not mutually exclusive. Open just means can be repaid at any time without penalty or IRD

#93 Yukon Elvis on 03.23.22 at 6:35 pm

Got a letter in the mail today from Stats Can. My household has been selected to participate in a Covid19 antibody and health survey. I will receive a kit and self test to provide a dried blood sample then fill in an electronic questionnaire. I will then receive a personal lab report. Seems legit and sounds interesting. I will do it. Anyone else get this letter?

#94 Brian on 03.23.22 at 6:39 pm

DELETED

#95 Reality Check on 03.23.22 at 6:41 pm

The media is playing up a survey that find 3 in 10 voters would never vote conservative.

Like this is big news??? Seems pretty obvious that 30% of the population is hard core NDP/Lib.

But what about voters that would never vote NDP? I am guessing 4/10.

Or voters that would never vote Liberal. Could that possibly be less than 3/10, especially now that the Libs are crowding out the NDP on the left.

#96 Reality Check on 03.23.22 at 7:00 pm

In 2021, Russia was the world’s top exporter of nitrogen fertilizers and the second-largest supplier of both potassic
————————

Nitrogen fertilizers are made from natural gas and potash comes from,…….well potash mines. Canada/US has an abundance of natural gas reserves that could be developed. Canada (SK and MB) have a few thousand years of potash reserves.

But is the world strategically smart enough to do develop these resources so we are not reliant on a Russia.

Not likely. This will all be forgotten 5 years from now and we will be backing up the truck for a Russian resources.

#97 I don’t know on 03.23.22 at 7:00 pm

83 yorkville renter on 03.23.22 at 5:44

You buy real estate when you can afford to. You don’t know that mortgage rates will rise, and if they do, how much. Also, like you said, you don’t know where prices will be in the future.

There is a high probability prices will continue to increase, regardless of rising rates. An entire generation of renters over 40 are completely priced out because they waited. The younger generation is wary of making that mistake (but should only buy if they can afford to, whether from gifts, savings, investments or whatever).

The paradigm around housing changed decades ago. Expecting the 80’s to come back when Canada’s population was 15 million less with only a fraction of new houses built will disappoint a lot of people. Same with those expecting a repeat of 2008.

IDK

#98 Observer on 03.23.22 at 7:10 pm

#85 IHCTD9 on 03.23.22 at 5:57 pm
DELETED (Enough)

^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^

Hey, if you are feeling that bad about taking child tax benefits from Canadian taxpayers that you didn’t need, maybe you can find a way to pay it forward.

#99 My other brother Darryl on 03.23.22 at 7:10 pm

I hope you are right about bunnypatch MLS listings, Garth

I can hardly wait to unload the McMansion I bought during the 2009 financial crisis and move to a nice small town.

#100 Sal on 03.23.22 at 7:21 pm

My prediction and the outcome, result of all Canadians believing that Trudeau, Singh Liberal, NDP back room deal is going to make things alot worse. You believe government and central banks can only fix things is BS. Inflation, taxes, fees and charges of all types, cost of living, currency devaluation, C$ will be $ in the dumper, who knows below Chretien, Martin Liberals back in 2002, 62.5 cents C$ to US dollar. Canadians socialism always ends up badly and this time is no different. Your fooling yourselves.

#101 Trojan House on 03.23.22 at 7:28 pm

#26 Michael in-north-york on 03.23.22 at 1:23 pm

You are clueless. Keep drinking the Kool aid.

#102 Brian on 03.23.22 at 7:35 pm

#26 Michael in-north-york on 03.23.22 at 1:23 pm

#96 Trojan House
You are clueless. Keep drinking the Kool aid.

Careful Trojan House, you might the trigger the Liberal from North York!

#103 Francy on 03.23.22 at 7:41 pm

5 year GIC shopping today 3.41% highest rate could find. This will be rising even more, 4% in coming weeks, maybe months and 4.25% to 4.35% by summer. I would wait locking in folks.

Why would you lock money up in an asset delivering guaranteed real losses? – Garth

#104 Faron on 03.23.22 at 7:44 pm

#98 Observer on 03.23.22 at 7:10 pm
#85 IHCTD9 on 03.23.22 at 5:57 pm

Hey, if you are feeling that bad about taking child tax benefits from Canadian taxpayers that you didn’t need, maybe you can find a way to pay it forward

Hah, well done. Dude’s fixated on Trudeau as the root of all evil.

#76 Sail Away on 03.23.22 at 5:00 pm

What about self-control?

6 today. So much hypocritical spatter for Garth to clean up [approve].

Gosh, if only there were an annulus-shaped muscle that you could wilfully squeeze to keep your fingers from reaching the keyboard/screen.

#105 Bitcoin Bro on 03.23.22 at 7:45 pm

“Ray’s book is good fiction and theory. But that’s where it ends.

Why? The US doesn’t actually have an “empire” in the traditional sense that can collapse like previous ones. Nor does it necessarily have a “sphere of influence” like other countries.

This is also ignoring the far superior geography and demographics of the US. ”

Fiction? It’s a meticulously researched and peer-reviewed history.

I really don’t know what to make of the rest of your post… you’re the first person online or otherwise I’ve ever come across attempt to argue that the USA doesn’t actually have an “empire in the traditional sense”.

700+ overseas military bases and spending more than the next 9 militaries combined? Home to the world’s financial center and reserve currency? The primary exporter of popular culture worldwide for decades? If it walks like an empire and talks like an empire… it’s an empire, homie.

And every great empire in history has failed eventually. Assuming the USA will somehow be the exception to this historical rule is recency bias (to borrow Garth’s words from today).

To be clear – this doesn’t necessarily mean the USA will descend into chaos or irrelevancy on the world stage. Just look at the previous world empires. The Spanish, the Dutch, and the Brits are doing just fine these days… they’re just not where they used to be in terms of global power. The Chinese are coming back around for another turn at being the top dog. These are the ebs and flows of history.

#106 Blobby on 03.23.22 at 8:09 pm

Need a Garth to English dictionary on this one.

Where exactly is the “Bunnypatch”, is that “any rural area outside the city”?

#107 neptunian on 03.23.22 at 8:12 pm

if CBs raise rate to 5%+, RE will be hit, big! and the reverse FOMO (yes, we Canadians will always have FOMO) will push it down further.

but that is a big “IF”.

the same FED boss was telling us the inflation would be temporary; the same FEB boss waited until now and just raised .25 while the inflation is 7.9, the same FEB boss raised the rate to 2.5% and then stop and reversed back in 2018 when SPY down about 6%.

I wouldn’t listen to what the FED boss says, I would like to see what he does!

#108 Phylis on 03.23.22 at 8:19 pm

#43 Captain Uppa on 03.23.22 at 2:41 pm We will know you have seen the light when you change your handle! ;)

#109 Ponzius Pilatus on 03.23.22 at 8:20 pm

#92 Under the radar on 03.23.22 at 6:28 pm
#86 a mortgage can be fixed rate and open. the two are not mutually exclusive. Open just means can be repaid at any time without penalty or IRD
————
I guess that’s why the rate is so high.

#110 Lefty on 03.23.22 at 8:39 pm

My cat can’t wait for me to go back to the office..

#111 Huh? on 03.23.22 at 8:40 pm

#81 Bob Dog on 03.23.22 at 5:26 pm
Diversity is Strength MoFos!

Endless economic growth to satiate the psychopath ultra capitalists.

Methane is good for the atmosphere. Just work harder and get the TSX to record highs.

Pay no mind to Russia. Probably hall of their nukes won’t work.

——————————————

Thank God. Now we only have worry about 3500 nukes. Whew.

#112 NEVER GIVE UP on 03.23.22 at 8:41 pm

Our effeminate Prime Minister accuses Russia of “breaking trust”. Could he possibly have used a stronger phrase for a psychopath rampaging across Europe Killing people?

The only one who has broken the trust is Trudeau who is all Unicorns and Rainbows about renewables when our European friends need our oil and gas.

I am now firmly against this fairy whom I was giving the benefit of the doubt.

Next election I will be supporting the other side.

https://energynow.ca/2022/03/trudeau-dropped-the-ball-in-europe-on-oil-production-he-needs-to-get-this-right-brian-lilly/

#113 Quintilian on 03.23.22 at 8:47 pm

I am profoundly and truly proud to be Canadian, and consider myself to be blessed to be a contemporary when Canada is becoming politically mature.

The precisely calibrated mixed economy is a triumph for those of us who truly believe in capitalism with a heart and brain.

As, for most of the curmudgeons, who thoughtlessly criticize the government and offer nothing but slogans- get over yourselves and accept the Waterloo moment of your shallow lives.

Your ideology may occasionally win the odd battle as exemplified by the win of the deplorable Trump, but you will not will the war.

And if you crave for your idea of a just, society may I suggest moving to Turkey, South Korea,
Mexico, Chile, Latvia.

#114 Ustabe on 03.23.22 at 8:50 pm

#106 Blobby on 03.23.22 at 8:09 pm

Need a Garth to English dictionary on this one.

Where exactly is the “Bunnypatch”, is that “any rural area outside the city”?

As an example Bunnypatch, Alberta is the area in between Armpit, Alberta and Pump Handle, Alberta.

Signed, a proud resident of Bunnypatch whose businesses and family have both thrived therein.

Garth (I think) uses it as a gentle poke, others use it as a pejorative, me? I don’t spend much time wondering about what the Metamucil chugging, hours long commuting, crammed into a building fighting for space as they walk to the closest park so their pandemic pooch can poop folks who use that kind of language imagery think.

#115 willworkforpickles on 03.23.22 at 8:50 pm

I posted on that news about the Fed here yesterday.

Had lots to say too.

On Fed Chair Powell …watch him…never trust him.

The Fed Chair’s on thin ice without a 2×4 strapped to his ass. And the temperature’s rising.

#116 crowdedelevatorfartz on 03.23.22 at 9:18 pm

@ Yukon Elvis
” I will receive a kit and self test to provide a dried blood sample then fill in an electronic questionnaire.”

+++

The govt is collecting blood samples for statistical analysis?
Prick the dog and send it in.

#117 crowdedelevatorfartz on 03.23.22 at 9:21 pm

@#89 Ponzies Pals’ propaganda.

“Only a few have to work.”

+++

Sounds like an election slogan for the Liberals in 2025…..

#118 crowdedelevatorfartz on 03.23.22 at 9:31 pm

@#113 A Quintillian ways to ignore you.

“As, for most of the curmudgeons, who thoughtlessly criticize the government and offer nothing but slogans- get over yourselves and accept the Waterloo moment of your shallow lives.”

+++

nah, I’m gonna stay here any keep voting against Trudeau…until he’s a distasteful memory.

#119 Peter in Toronto on 03.23.22 at 9:34 pm

RE: Ukraine

It appears what started as rumour is now being formally discussed in Polish leadership circles: the Poles are thinking about sending in forces to secure Lviv and other historically Polish areas in West Ukraine to protect them against Russian assault.

Polish press:
https://gazetaplus.pl/lawrow-kaczynski-zajmie-lwow-i-pozostanie-tam-dlugi-okres/47291/

Deputy Polish PM Kaczynski is an old school Polish nationalist and he’ll probably bring this up with Biden on his visit there soon.

Personally ah think it’s a good idea. East Ukraine has already fallen, and I doubt the Russians will ever leave. West Ukraine under Polish protection would be one way to save Ukrainian statehood.

#120 IHCTD9 on 03.23.22 at 9:41 pm

#98 Observer on 03.23.22 at 7:10 pm
#85 IHCTD9 on 03.23.22 at 5:57 pm
DELETED (Enough)

^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^

Hey, if you are feeling that bad about taking child tax benefits from Canadian taxpayers that you didn’t need, maybe you can find a way to pay it forward.
——-

Charitable donations, 5 figures every year for the last 24 years and counting. No joke.

But don’t kid yourself bro, if you vote Trudeau in again, I will surely avail myself of whatever handouts I find myself eligible for. Thus far, that’s been pretty much all of them.

The local YAMAHA dealership has had a rough couple years. I think they vote Liberal. Lucky for them, I’m not a shell-shocked partisan, and will happily expense my Trudeau-bucks at their emporium of top quality Japanese off road toys.

PS, that delete was humour surrounding a word Mr. T decided he has had enough of for now. Had nothing to do with the tens of thousands worth of Trudeau handouts I’ve banked since 2015.

#121 Sail Away on 03.23.22 at 9:44 pm

#104 Faron on 03.23.22 at 7:44 pm

#76 Sail Away on 03.23.22 at 5:00 pm

What about self-control?

———

6 today. So much hypocritical spatter for Garth to clean up [approve].

Gosh, if only there were an annulus-shaped muscle that you could wilfully squeeze to keep your fingers from reaching the keyboard/screen.

———

Absolutely unrelated to self control. I have never, ever committed to limit my posting in any way. After all, one doesn’t win the annual postmaster award by slacking.

Self control would only be relevant if limiting posts were a stated objective that couldn’t be achieved. You may know somebody resembling that remark?

I’m glad we’ve cleared this up- your continued yammering on this subject has been a source of significant puzzlement to me.

#122 IHCTD9 on 03.23.22 at 9:52 pm

#99 My other brother Darryl on 03.23.22 at 7:10 pm
I hope you are right about bunnypatch MLS listings, Garth

I can hardly wait to unload the McMansion I bought during the 2009 financial crisis and move to a nice small town.
——-

99% bunnypatch will fade. Might take couple years for the anglers to give up. Eventually we will go back to jigging for retirees. There is nothing here to support half the local MLS being 3/4 Mil+ houses.

#123 The Totally Unbiased, Highly Intelligent, Rational Observer on 03.23.22 at 9:54 pm

“As you’ve heard, the Singh-Trudeau alliance sealed on March 21st has overturned the result of the federal election we plodded through six months ago.” — GT (from yesterday)

The Liberal/NDP/BLOC/Green UNIPARTY is basically united in supporting all the major bad policies that are designed to destroy Canada.

Seeing how bad most voters have become, the so-called Conservative party also is now supporting the major bad policies that are designed to destroy Canada.

The only “choice” with all these usual suspects involved in crimes against humanity in general, and crimes against Canada in particular, will be the name leading the bad policies that are designed to destroy Canada.

These usual suspects who love to talk about tolerance and inclusivity will not include or tolerate any alternative to the current UNIPARTY and its agenda to try to destroy Canada. Notice how badly anyone who disagrees with the whole Liberal/NDP/BLOC/Green/Con UNIPARTY gets slandered all over the place as some sort of crazy extremist, while the really crazy extremists in the
UNIPARTY continue to try to destroy Canada. The UNIPARTY tries to pass off all of its own policies as the only acceptable policies and anything else as totally unacceptable.

In some dictatorships, people are given only one party to vote for. In other dictatorships that want to pass themselves off as having democracies, people get a variety of parties to vote for that all have the same policies.

#124 Sail Away on 03.23.22 at 9:56 pm

#116 crowdedelevatorfartz on 03.23.22 at 9:18 pm

Prick the dog…

——–

That’s not a bad dog name. Good, hard consonants, doesn’t sound like any regular commands, probably fairly uncommon…

My command to search for pine mushrooms is ‘Tic-Tac’, so maybe a bit too similar for my situation.

#125 Barb on 03.23.22 at 9:57 pm

“My household has been selected to participate in a Covid19 antibody and health survey. I will receive a kit and self test to provide a dried blood sample then fill in an electronic questionnaire. I will then receive a personal lab report.”
————————-
What fun!
Was it signed … a Nigerian Prince?

#126 crowdedelevatorfartz on 03.23.22 at 10:09 pm

Was Trudeau’s speech at the EU snubbed?

I watched a few minutes on the News and a wide shot of the “audience” showed about 20% attendance.

https://globalnews.ca/video/8704169/russia-ukraine-conflict-democracy-will-always-be-stronger-than-authoritarianism-trudeau-says/

Or did most Parliamentarians realize he was there for the publicity and nothing else.

#127 Brad on 03.23.22 at 10:10 pm

“Inflation is much too high,” he said this week, and rates will continue to rise until it is corralled.

I’d like to see the fed try an raise rates to 8% or higher to corall current inflation. Right now its at .50%…. ok

#128 TurnerNation on 03.23.22 at 10:30 pm

War on Small Business continues. Public health did this right? Evidence based right?

https://www.ledevoir.com/economie/689880/travail-faire-le-deuil-eprouvant-de-son-restaurant
“Last January, there were about 3,666 fewer restaurants in Quebec than two years ago, just before the pandemic, according to data obtained by the Association Restauration Québec. That’s about 17% of the establishments that have disappeared and, with them, the dreams of the food lovers who founded them.”

— Normalcy very soon! Lots of money to be made. Thank goodness the government already signed contracts for this for many years to come. Chicken or the egg, what comes first.

https://ici.radio-canada.ca/nouvelle/1871062/quebec-covid-vague-omicron-vaccin-sante-dose
“The National Director of Public Health asked health institutions on Tuesday to prepare “very quickly” for the likelihood of a 6th wave of COVID-19 in Québec and the administration of a 4th dose of vaccine for seniors, Radio-Canada has learned. Laboratory-tested cases are on the rise.”

#129 Doug t on 03.23.22 at 10:35 pm

#113 Quintilian

RAINBOWS AND UNICORNS FOR EVERYONE – CANADA isn’t becoming “politically mature” – Canada is becoming the Titanic – those rose coloured glasses of yours need to be retired

#130 Ponzius Pilatus on 03.23.22 at 10:36 pm

#119 Peter in Toronto on 03.23.22 at 9:34 pm
RE: Ukraine

It appears what started as rumour is now being formally discussed in Polish leadership circles: the Poles are thinking about sending in forces to secure Lviv and other historically Polish areas in West Ukraine to protect them against Russian assault.

Polish press:
https://gazetaplus.pl/lawrow-kaczynski-zajmie-lwow-i-pozostanie-tam-dlugi-okres/47291/

Deputy Polish PM Kaczynski is an old school Polish nationalist and he’ll probably bring this up with Biden on his visit there soon.

Personally ah think it’s a good idea. East Ukraine has already fallen, and I doubt the Russians will ever leave. West Ukraine under Polish protection would be one way to save Ukrainian statehood.
————————-
Sure , Poland would like a piece of the pie.
Not sure, that the Ukrainians would approve of the “Polish protection”.
In any case, Poland is part of NATO.
And any direct involvement could lead to WWIII.

#131 IHCTD9 on 03.23.22 at 10:36 pm

#113 Quintilian on 03.23.22 at 8:47 pm

Your ideology may occasionally win the odd battle as exemplified by the win of the deplorable Trump, but you will not will the war.
———

Dude. If you lived in a dumpster apartment and had to watch every penny to make ends meet – but your team was in power – does that equal a good standard of living to you?

“The war” is for good living, comfy retirement, and for some – kids and grandkids. Not for your brand of politics to be parked in Ottawa.

I’m happy to point out Trudeau’s many fails, but how has he affected my life? Fact is, he made it better, but in a way that punishes others who are completely innocent. So my “ideology” lost, but I gained a half Mil – did I “lose”?

I don’t like the fact that Trudeau is destroying Canada, and I know those living under his decision making are suffering, but me? I’m not bro. When you “win the war”, I’ll be visiting the local GM and YAMAHA dealers.

Homie, start thinking.

#132 Faron on 03.23.22 at 10:38 pm

#121 Sail Away on 03.23.22 at 9:44 pm

Hypocrisy arises from a lack of self control. Or from dishonesty. You demonstrate hypocritical actions continually. So, your choice.

As for me, well that’s a whataboutism. But, I don’t think I’ve ever highlighted self-control for myself or as a virtue as repeatedly as you have. If ever. That’s why it’s funny that you lack it.

8 comments today. Cleanup in the sailperson’s room.

#133 TurnerNation on 03.23.22 at 10:57 pm

Guys we are this close to Back to Normal! Just Two More Years and we again will have the free and fair elections. Two more years then normalcy will be restored.

>Trying find the comment where I said the elections would be suspended for good. In the mean time.
from June 2021:

#11 TurnerNation on 06.05.21 at 10:22 am
Viva Cuba. Viva Canada.
Yes now you know why T1, T2 fawned over this regime.
1. Elections: Feds seemingly suspended elections until their say-so. Shall we expect a T3? Same-same with Cuba.


THIS is why the federal ‘mandates’ still are in place. This ID will be a global thang, nothing organic about it.

https://tnc.news/2022/03/22/federal-panel-event-discusses-digital-ids-for-tracking-future-vaccinations/
Federal panel event discusses digital IDs for tracking future vaccinations
True North has learned that a Canada School of Public Service event on digital ID discussed tracking Canadians’ vaccine status during future pandemics.

https://thenationalpulse.com/2022/03/17/bidens-new-covid-coordinator-urges-vaccine-passports-mandates/
Biden’s New COVID Coordinator Wants Vaccine Passports, Claims ‘We Aren’t Anywhere Near the End of This Pandemic’.
Rather than easing off, the Biden regime looks to be ready for a new COVID crackdown with its appointment of a radical pro-vaccine passport White House advisor.

#134 Merry Poopins on 03.23.22 at 11:11 pm

#116 crowdedelevatorfartz on 03.23.22 at 9:18 pm

@ Yukon Elvis
” I will receive a kit and self test to provide a dried blood sample then fill in an electronic questionnaire.”

+++

The govt is collecting blood samples for statistical analysis?
Prick the dog and send it in.

———————————————-

Better yet … collect a stool sample from Prick the dog and send it in! Just tell them that you are not that bright and you read it wrong!
Everyone on the blog can vouch for you!

#135 Nonplused on 03.23.22 at 11:25 pm

DELETED

#136 Ponzius Pilatus on 03.23.22 at 11:28 pm

134 Merry Poopins on 03.23.22 at 11:11 pm
#116 crowdedelevatorfartz on 03.23.22 at 9:18 pm

@ Yukon Elvis
” I will receive a kit and self test to provide a dried blood sample then fill in an electronic questionnaire.”

+++

The govt is collecting blood samples for statistical analysis?
Prick the dog and send it in.

———————————————-

Better yet … collect a stool sample from Prick the dog and send it in! Just tell them that you are not that bright and you read it wrong!
Everyone on the blog can vouch for you!
————-
Ouch!

#137 Sail Away on 03.23.22 at 11:30 pm

#132 Faron on 03.23.22 at 10:38 pm
#121 Sail Away on 03.23.22 at 9:44 pm

Hypocrisy arises from a lack of self control. Or from dishonesty. You demonstrate hypocritical actions continually. So, your choice.

As for me, well that’s a whataboutism. But, I don’t think I’ve ever highlighted self-control for myself or as a virtue as repeatedly as you have. If ever. That’s why it’s funny that you lack it.

8 comments today. Cleanup in the sailperson’s room.

———

Debate pyramid attached. Ad hominem.

https://images.app.goo.gl/8ojSfriU3E1Lvu3FA

#138 Mr. White on 03.23.22 at 11:48 pm

Over the years reading this blog I have asked the question; what happens when mortgage rates revert to normal?

We are about to see. Mortgage rates will overshoot to 10% and then drop to 8%.

The idea that inflation has been low is based upon the absurd notions of modern monetary theory. The increase in house prices and in the stock markets around the world shows where inflation has been hiding.

In real terms house prices are going to drop as interest rates increase and personal bankruptcy rates are going to cause misery not seen for close to 100 years.

The party is over Garth. The hangover is going to be brutal.

#139 SI2K on 03.24.22 at 12:30 am

FCP IT offices have been cleared and repurposed. Few of those workers live downtown. They haven’t for many years. Dh was the last in his department to move to the suburbs/exurbs back in ’16. They used to call him up for some things before that bc he was the only one still living in the city. Their after-hours guys are in India, and if it weren’t for regulators, they’d export all those jobs. If they push it, these guys can easily consult WFH for USD. Don’t think 2019 is coming back in some departments, anyway.

#140 Short Fuse on 03.24.22 at 1:20 am

Canada is failing fast. First the revenue from energy and resources is being throttled , then SMEs were stabbed in the heart and now banks and REITs are being shotgunned.

Question: Where is the money to build schools and hospitals going to come from? Canada used to have democratic political principles where spending had to be put through the crucible of parliament where at lease there were checks and balances, but no more. The goons and freaks have manipulated the number of seats they control to form a majority ( let’s call it what is now become “the goons and freaks party) that 80% of Canadians didn’t vote for.

Without Parliament the government is just a crack party with the goons and freaks shoveling power and spending and fairy dust globalist meth up their noses because there’s no one to stop them.

And what of the PBO? He may as well go to Jamaica and smoke dope for the next three years. Ethics Commissioner? Hah, what’s that, gone !! Canada is now a WOKE Tyranny. Expect dancing in the Hollywood Hills now that paid schills and the donors they leech off will become policy advisors. You’ll long for the days of mostly stupid commentary from the left as dumbed down radicals sally forth to solidify a wretched reality of Resetting and Living with less.

#141 millmech on 03.24.22 at 2:13 am

#86
https://www.envisionfinancial.ca/tools-calculators/rates/mortgage-rates

#142 Jane24 on 03.24.22 at 2:55 am

Of course return to work only works if the company can find staff who want to be in the office 3 days a week and in this world where staff can pick and choose amongst job offers, that may be difficult.

#143 Chimingin on 03.24.22 at 7:22 am

#113-Oh, Quintilian, you are so funny when you’re sarcastic.

#144 willworkforpickles on 03.24.22 at 8:13 am

Does Trudeau have anything but praise for himself. World diplomats are mocking him.
The boy should step down.

#145 crowdedelevatorfartz on 03.24.22 at 8:17 am

@ #134 Ponzie’s Poppins Pal
“Got a letter in the mail today from Stats Can. My household has been selected to participate in a Covid19 antibody and health survey. I will receive a kit and self test to provide a dried blood sample then fill in an electronic questionnaire.”

+++++

Sounds pretty straight forward.
The govt wants a sample of blood.
For covid statistical analysis.

If your reading skills are as bad as your reasoning skills.
Go ahead and send the govt a sample of your blood.
I’m sure once that personal privacy threshold has been passed.
It won’t be long before they demand a stool sample from people with the last name Poopins. (Russian decent…Poopinsky?)

Oh and FYI….
Most surveys from Stats Canada are compulsory…kinda like the Census.

But you just keep sitting in ponzies lap… barking.
It make the two of you sound twice as smart.

#146 crowdedelevatorfartz on 03.24.22 at 8:39 am

@#141 millmech

You might as well try and reason with a trapped Russian leader.

Facts dont matter.

Only the pugnacious arguments of the truly stubborn drowning in the ocean while they demand proof that a rescue boat floats….

#147 Bezengy on 03.24.22 at 9:40 am

Just finished another epic tour across western Canada. I’m happy to report we still have room to cram a few more Ukranians into Saskatchewan. I love driving around in the “breadbasket”, particularly south of the mountains. Might be a bunnypatch to some, but it could easily be home for me.

Some years ago I had the idea that there should be a tax credit for those folks travelling out of province inside of Canada, to promote unity if nothing else. It was presented as a private member’s bill but was defeated. Too bad. I think it would be an eye opener for most who have never left their home province.

#148 Observer on 03.24.22 at 9:47 am

#144 willworkforpickles on 03.24.22 at 8:13 am
Does Trudeau have anything but praise for himself. World diplomats are mocking him.
The boy should step down.

^^^^^^^^^^^^^
Not looking like “the boy” will step down anytime soon. Hmmm. What to do? Oh I know. Maybe you could join a trucker convoy with hopes to overthrow the government. Make sure you write a MOU explaining exactly what you want so there is no confusion. That might work.

#149 crowdedelevatorfartz on 03.24.22 at 9:49 am

Another govt bureaucratic farce.

Now that the pandemic is winding down, the masks are no longer required, and the public has had it with the rules and regs…….

“Get your Covid rapid test kits folks!”

https://vancouver.citynews.ca/2022/03/23/bc-rapid-tests-covid-adults/

2 years late the fact and $millions of dollars short.

I wonder how many bureaucrats sat in how many meetings for how many months to decide to buy millions of test kits….to be delivered to a public ….that doesnnt need them.

#150 Quintilian on 03.24.22 at 9:55 am

#131 IHCTD
“Homie, start thinking.”

I do think, but your bragging cohorts and, to a lesser extent, you make my head hurt.

The logic equation can’t be balanced. I believe the colloquial term is:

“Looking at a gift horse in the mouth”.

On the one hand there is the constant and unsolicited disclosure of your swelling net worth and on the other the accusation of how the current government is mismanaging the economy thereby creating barriers to your success.

It doesn’t compute.

Although occasionally some of you make reference how the deck is stacked against my generation, but at the same time, when I point out the inequities, I’m the “SJW”, who wears “ rose coloured glasses”
And then there is the sprinkling of mockery:”

RAINBOWS AND UNICORNS FOR EVERYONE”

Which is it?
Faulty logic, or dishonesty?

#151 Sail Away on 03.24.22 at 10:27 am

I wasn’t going to say anything but feel I’ve taken far more than my share of nutbar-minding over the last few years. Yes, roaming free isn’t an option, but someone else needs to step up.

Odious task, to be sure, but it needs doing.

On offer: One hot hunka hunka simmering and oft-unleashed bafflingly-random rage. Comes with free electroshock collar.

#152 Dharma Bum on 03.24.22 at 10:38 am

Does all of this mean I have to go outside?

#153 Slim on 03.24.22 at 10:48 am

After some more thought about Trudeau and Singh getting together, I’ve come to this conclusion.

It’s a minority government. It is what it is. Two governments decided to work together and deal with issues, and if the CPC doesn’t like this, tough beans. It’s as simple as that.

The NDP is not a government, but the third party in Parliament. Think harder. – Garth

#154 Observer on 03.24.22 at 10:49 am

Bummer.

“Martin Joseph Anglehart, who joined the Freedom Convoy in Alberta, says he spent more than $13,000 of his savings to support protesters, thinking organizers would reimburse him. He says that never happened, leaving him struggling to afford food.

When hearing Anglehart’s story, University of Ottawa law professor Joao Velloso said he was not surprised.

Velloso also points to the $300 million class-action lawsuit against protesters launched by downtown Ottawa residents and businesses.

He said it could bankrupt those named in the suit. When it comes down to all the donations, it’s hard to track down where all the money went, said Velloso. ”

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/ottawa/ottawa-convoy-protest-regrets-1.6394502

#155 Philco on 03.24.22 at 10:52 am

#113 Quintilian on 03.23.22 at 8:47 pm
—————————————
Ya right lol
Soon we will need lipstick for this pig.

#156 Ponzius Pilatus on 03.24.22 at 11:02 am

#150 Quincy
RAINBOWS AND UNICORNS FOR EVERYONE”
——————————
After all the rainfalls we’ve been having in the Lower Mainland, I’d be happy with just RAINBOWS.

#157 Brian on 03.24.22 at 11:05 am

DELETED (Please go away)

#158 Ponzius Pilatus on 03.24.22 at 11:28 am

#187 James on 03.23.22 at 12:29 pm
#172 crowdedelevatorfartz on 03.23.22 at 10:05 am

Speaking of Trudeau.

Another cringe worthy photo op for our PM that will leave millions of Europeans wondering how Canadians chose this dilettante as our representative?

https://vancouver.citynews.ca/2022/03/23/trudeau-europe-nato-summit-ukraine/
__________________________________________
Should send him to the front lines and see how much of a man he is when the bullets fly. If you think he has a speak impediment now wait until he tries to explain to the Russians how “People Kind” works.
———————-
I just hope that was the booze speaking.
If not, you have serious problems.

#159 Shawn on 03.24.22 at 11:29 am

What Drives the Massive Borrowing in our Economy?

The money supply grows due to all forms of borrowing: government, business and personal. Massive borrowing is mostly blamed on low interest rates. But there is another key cause of massive borrowing and it is the easy availability of credit, that is it is the amazing eagerness of lenders to lend.

As a young employed engineer in the late ’80’s I was turned down at a car dealer for a Honda Civic. I got the loan somewhere else. A couple years later, I had difficulty getting a mortgage on a house that cost just 1.5 times my salary and I had a secure job. In those days it was it was common to need a co-signer and we had to shop around just to find a bank willing to lend. We took whatever interest rate they charged as we were glad just to be approved for the loan.

These days banks and other lenders are massively willing to lend partly because there are few defaults and that’s in turn partly because it is easy to borrow new money to pay old loans and even interest.

Easy money has begat easy money. If that reverses and lenders become hesitant to lend THEN we will see borrowing (and M1 and M2 growth) dry up quickly. And that will cause a recession. Easy credit (even more than low interest rates) is the amazing grease of the economy.

#160 IHCTD9 on 03.24.22 at 11:59 am

#150 Quintilian on 03.24.22 at 9:55 am
#131 IHCTD
“Homie, start thinking.”

I do think, but your bragging cohorts and, to a lesser extent, you make my head hurt.

The logic equation can’t be balanced. I believe the colloquial term is:

“Looking at a gift horse in the mouth”.

On the one hand there is the constant and unsolicited disclosure of your swelling net worth and on the other the accusation of how the current government is mismanaging the economy thereby creating barriers to your success.
____

First, I am a bottom feeder as far as wealth goes on this particular blog, there is no bragging.

What I keep telling you is that voting for guys like Trudeau increases the wealth of us curmudgeons. But not for your cohort. When you vote lefty, my house goes up in value, and the house don’t own yet just slipped further out of your reach.

Do you understand this is happening? You vote left, I get rich, you get poor.

Is this your goal?

#161 Howard on 03.24.22 at 12:06 pm

#153 Slim on 03.24.22 at 10:48 am
After some more thought about Trudeau and Singh getting together, I’ve come to this conclusion.

It’s a minority government. It is what it is. Two governments decided to work together and deal with issues, and if the CPC doesn’t like this, tough beans. It’s as simple as that.

———————————————

It’s perfectly fine that for parties to work together. That’s what the Parliamentary should be about. But this NDP-Liberal formal agreement gives the Liberals an effective majority for the next 3 years on 33% of the vote. The Liberals gave the NDP and its 18% of voters very little in return that the Liberals weren’t already proposing. The NDP will also back the Liberals in committee which means any investigation into Liberal corruption will be quashed. That’s not serving the will of the people; voters did NOT send Trudeau back to Ottawa with absolute power.

The NDP could certainly have worked with the Liberals on an issue by issue basis. That would have been a better solution and truly serving the will of the voters.

#162 Brian on 03.24.22 at 12:16 pm

DELETED

#163 Gravy Train on 03.24.22 at 12:22 pm

#138 Mr. White on 03.23.22 at 11:48 pm
[…] The party is over, Garth. The hangover is going to be brutal.

A better analogy was posed by Warren Buffett: “Only when the tide goes out do you discover who’s been swimming naked.”

#164 IHCTD9 on 03.24.22 at 12:32 pm

#147 Bezengy on 03.24.22 at 9:40 am

I love driving around in the “breadbasket”, particularly south of the mountains. Might be a bunnypatch to some, but it could easily be home for me.
____

Bunny patch will eventually revert back to the greatness it was prior to the Pandemic. Might take a couple years free of some new global disaster turning everything upside down again.

If I were a single young dude right now, I’d be working some crappy local/remote job, and living along hwy 11 in some small French speaking Northern Ontario town. I’d have a fixer upper and a 200.00 mortgage payment. No stress living in some beautiful countryside where you get a real winter every year.

An old truck, sled, atv/sxs, and a decent boat. Man that would be the life! I’d be an updated semi-refined Dick Proenneke.

#165 IHCTD9 on 03.24.22 at 12:55 pm

#148 Observer on 03.24.22 at 9:47 am
#144 willworkforpickles on 03.24.22 at 8:13 am
Does Trudeau have anything but praise for himself. World diplomats are mocking him.
The boy should step down.

^^^^^^^^^^^^^
Not looking like “the boy” will step down anytime soon. Hmmm. What to do? Oh I know. Maybe you could join a trucker convoy with hopes to overthrow the government.
_____

Or, he could just sit back and let the borrowed billions flow into his bank account and asset values. Last I checked, Trudeau has not slowed down the spending one bit, and is still running deficits 3X larger than we did during the GFC – as a matter of regular business.

Free this, free that, free everything. It’ll all trickle into bank balances and asset inflation just like it did the last time the Libs started throwing money around like confetti.

WWFP could then go out and buy a new truck using the blood sweat and tears of the un-born – and drive it to the next convoy!

#166 crowdedelevatorfartz on 03.24.22 at 12:57 pm

@#160 IHCTD9

“Do you understand this is happening? You vote left, I get rich, you get poor.”
+++

They smug, educated , politically correct know whats best for everyone….
Until they “Woke” up and realize… the politicians screwed them too.

#167 Dr V on 03.24.22 at 1:20 pm

159 shawn

“In those days it was it was common to need a co-signer and we had to shop around just to find a bank willing to lend. We took whatever interest rate they charged as we were glad just to be approved for the loan.”
————————————————

Naa shawn, it was just you :)

#168 Faron on 03.24.22 at 1:25 pm

#151 Sail Away on 03.24.22 at 10:27 am

free electroshock collar.

Oh, you’ve just been using it wrong. Here, try this.

1. Set up shock collar geofence near and surrounding your commenting devices of choice.
2. Put shock collar on your neck
3. Turn on collar.
4. Enjoy complete freedom from being held accountable to your poor logic, single stock picking advice, idiotic COVID takes, far-right news diet, excessive and mundane commenting and overall priggish behaviours on greaterfool and anywhere else online that you “grace” with your presence. You’ll have to figure out real life on your own.

Thank me later.

LOL

#169 WTF on 03.24.22 at 1:28 pm

#142 “Of course return to work only works if the company can find staff who want to be in the office 3 days a week and in this world where staff can pick and choose amongst job offers, that may be difficult.”

—————————————————————–

Probably accurate, till a recission hits. Corps can play the long game, and will.

#170 crowdedelevatorfartz on 03.24.22 at 1:54 pm

@#164 IHCTD9
“I’d be an updated semi-refined Dick Proenneke.”

+++

Ahhh.
Carving spoons and door hinges out of wood.
Eating meat and potatoes 90 % of the time.
Nirvana.
However.
Pulling your own teeth would suck.
Pulling Ponzies teeth would be free entertainment.

#171 don't poke the bear on 03.24.22 at 1:55 pm

LME SAYS SECOND RING SESSION ON MARCH 24 IN NICKEL WILL BE DEEMED A DISRUPTED SESSION AND ALL AGREED TRADES DURING THIS SESSION WILL BE NULL AND VOID

wait until this starts happening to the other commodity markets. oil, gas, diesel …

the largest commodity trading houses on the planet are now in trouble.

sadly, the problems have just begun

#172 jess on 03.24.22 at 2:06 pm

The antidote:
Transparency

“Ottawa cannot go this alone. As this report shows, many shell companies are being registered at the provincial level.The federal, provincial, and territorial governments must work together to ensure that reforms are applied to the same high standards.”

As well as rolling out a public registry of beneficial owners,
we need to make several other changes to our company
laws. These reforms must be introduced in conjunction with
that public registry if it is to be effective in deterring the
abuse of legal entities:
• Nominees should be required to disclose that they are
acting on another’s behalf, and should identify that
person.
• Companies should have at least one resident director
to ensure that there is someone accountable within the
jurisdiction.
• Partnerships should disclose their partners and file
annual returns. They should also file declarations with
the Canada Revenue Agency even if they have no
taxable activities.
• Sufficiently dissuasive penalties should be introduced
and enforced to deter false declarations and other non-
compliance. Sanctions should apply to intermediaries
as well as directors, officers, partners and beneficial
owners. Enforcement should be prioritized to make up
for years
of inaction.
• Registries should be empowered to independently
verify information, collect and securely store ID, and
pursue cases of non-compliance. This can be paid for
by marginally increasing the cost of registering and
maintaining companie

https://static1.squarespace.com/static/5df7c3de2e4d3d3fce16c185/t/6231830a2f62a849a5da0eb4/1647411983132/TIC-Report-Snow-Washing-Inc-2MB.pdf

#173 KLNR on 03.24.22 at 2:06 pm

@#148 Observer on 03.24.22 at 9:47 am
#144 willworkforpickles on 03.24.22 at 8:13 am
Does Trudeau have anything but praise for himself. World diplomats are mocking him.
The boy should step down.

^^^^^^^^^^^^^
Not looking like “the boy” will step down anytime soon. Hmmm. What to do? Oh I know. Maybe you could join a trucker convoy with hopes to overthrow the government.

pretty sure pickles and his cohorts already tried that.

#174 Sail Away on 03.24.22 at 2:09 pm

#164 IHCTD9 on 03.24.22 at 12:32 pm

An old truck, sled, atv/sxs, and a decent boat. Man that would be the life! I’d be an updated semi-refined Dick Proenneke.

———

Haha, yep. I’d love to set up the tipi on a perfect parcel and spend spring through fall building a perfect cabin.

When I ran it by the wife, she said ‘That sounds great. All that open space, majestic outdoors and freedom…
and the dogs would love it. If you keep a horse, I’d probably come to visit every once in a while.’

#175 Slim on 03.24.22 at 2:17 pm

The CPC better get their act together if they want to win the next election.

#176 willworkforpickles on 03.24.22 at 2:31 pm

#148 Observer
After 3 years it will be anything but a peaceful riot in the streets.

#177 Phylis on 03.24.22 at 2:43 pm

#159 Shawn on 03.24.22 at 11:29 am
What Drives the Massive Borrowing in our Economy?

The money supply grows due to all forms of borrowing: government, business and personal. Massive borrowing is mostly blamed on low interest rates. But there is another key cause of massive borrowing and it is the easy availability of credit, that is it is the amazing eagerness of lenders to lend.

As a young employed engineer in the late ’80’s I was turned down at a car dealer for a Honda Civic. I got the loan somewhere else. A couple years later, I had difficulty getting a mortgage on a house that cost just 1.5 times my salary and I had a secure job. In those days it was it was common to need a co-signer and we had to shop around just to find a bank willing to lend. We took whatever interest rate they charged as we were glad just to be approved for the loan.

These days banks and other lenders are massively willing to lend partly because there are few defaults and that’s in turn partly because it is easy to borrow new money to pay old loans and even interest.

Easy money has begat easy money. If that reverses and lenders become hesitant to lend THEN we will see borrowing (and M1 and M2 growth) dry up quickly. And that will cause a recession. Easy credit (even more than low interest rates) is the amazing grease of the economy.
Xxxxxx
It will be interesting to hear when the first, ‘I can’t believe it, l was refused at the bank’ stories pop up.

#178 PeterfromCalgary on 03.24.22 at 3:37 pm

LOL I miss the days when people had common sense.

“The U.S. Department of Labor (the DOL) has issued a compliance release that provides strong caution against ERISA fiduciaries of 401(k) and 403(b) plans including cryptocurrencies as plan investment options. In an unusual move, the DOL has cautioned fiduciaries to “exercise extreme care before they consider adding a cryptocurrency option to a 401(k) plan’s investment menu for plan participants.””
https://www.jdsupra.com/legalnews/department-of-labor-issues-strong-5219280/?

#179 KLNR on 03.24.22 at 3:41 pm

@#175 Slim on 03.24.22 at 2:17 pm
The CPC better get their act together if they want to win the next election.

Don’t hold your breath waiting for that to happen.

but as Garth says, Canadians don’t vote parties in, they only vote them out.

#180 willworkforpickles on 03.24.22 at 3:46 pm

#173 KLNR

Contrary to what you may think , I don’t care for politicians left or right.
I go with the centre high ground… but there are no able leaders left to lead from center high ground.
You Trudeau lovers are fools.

#181 willworkforpickles on 03.24.22 at 4:01 pm

The Trudeau legacy. What would they say years from now if only there were that many years left for it to be said.

For those who Trudeau made rich he then made poor.

#182 Uncle Thomas on 03.24.22 at 5:03 pm

As Jugmeat Sing says “”From each according to his ability, to each according to his needs” or was it Karl Marx?

I need a big house and a new SUV. A big screen TV would also be nice.