Drive on

This week starts (tomorrow) with another set of mortgage increases. That’s two in three weeks. More to come. Those who thought rates could never rise were addicted to hopium. We’re now in an inflation-tightening swirl with central bankers way behind the curve and the economy romping through a post-pandemic phase that will last years. Despite Ukraine.

This past week the key Government of Canada five-year bond yield ripped through the 2% level for the first time since before you ever heard of Covid. In fact, it’s only happened twice in the last 12 years, and breaks out of a 30-year downtrend. This is the bond yield that maps out mortgage rates. And up they go.

Source: Canadian Mortgage Trends

Inflation will have a 6-handle within a month. The Bank of Canada’s target range of 1-3% was left in the dust long ago. It’s evident now that we screwed up on monetary policy, keeping rates repressed for far longer than required to battle the pandemic, and that stimulus measures – like spending billions a week buying up its own bonds – were costly overkills.

Layered atop this policy blunder was fiscal stimulus – which simply means government spending. During Covid the T2 gang spent their buns off, resulting in a doubling of the national debt, the biggest annual deficits in history and billions accumulating in personal bank accounts, much of which was unleashed on real estate. Combined with WFH, lower family operating costs, FOMO and mortgages which dipped into the 1% range, residential real estate went code red. Now we have a crisis. Everybody says so. And they keep being house horny.

Look at Hamilton, for example. Steel City. The Hammer. The blue collar city that Torontonians used to write off as being smelly and downscale. Houses were cheap for a reason – until the virus hit, the central bank went rogue and residential refugees streamed down the QEW from the GTA.

Hamilton gives us a nice little snap of the eternal and inverse relationship between the cost of money and the cost of housing. Hence, this chart represents what turned out so badly for the Bank of Canada, and those nesting Millennials…

Source: Teranet National Bank HPI, Wolfstreet.com, Turner Investments

It’s not hard to see how prices went vertical after the pandemic hit and the CB dropped its benchmark rate to 0.25%. This is what out-of-control government spending (fiscal stimulus) and panicked rate-slashing (monetary stimulus) can do to our most leveraged asset class (housing). From the South Shore of NS to the LM in BC, it’s the same story. An entire nation’s net worth has swollen with unearned gains. Tens of thousands of families have swallowed epic levels of debt to get in – and everyone thinks it will carry on.

But it will not. The question is simple. How much damage will occur as the tide turns?

The greatest cohort of housebuyers is now the Millennials, followed by the Zers. Nobody in these gens has lived through inflation of 5%, 6% or the wave yet to come. The five-year mortgage rate in Canada has not been at 6% since the credit crisis of 2008-9, when the average Millennial was 16.

The US Fed raised its key rate a few days ago for the first time since 2018, and indicated there will be six more hikes in the next twelve months. The market is pricing in three after that. This will be aped by our CB, as has happened 92% of the time in the past. It could add 2% to the chartered bank price, taking it close to 5%. Mortgages also would be that range. Those who borrowed to buy a house in 2021, for example, would see their loan costs double upon renewal. (Almost 40% of all borrowers will face a loan renewal in the next two years.)

Getting ready for that will mean discipline. Lots of savings, prudent investing, strict budgeting and preparation for higher monthly payments or a big principal paydown. And how many young couples, newly ensconced in their pricey homes, are doing that?

Let’s review some current survey results.

The latest Financial Wellbeing Index from LifeWorks reveals 27% of working Canadians spend everything they make each time they get paid. Another 7% spend more than they take in. And parents are twice as likely to report spending beyond their income. Twenty-six per cent say they don’t think they could come up with $2,000 in an emergency, which makes you wonder how a big mortgage payment jump can be handled.

More survey results (PolcyMe): Last year 40% of Canadians needed to dip into savings to get by. Over 60% are worried about meeting higher mortgage payments. Seven in ten say they could not survive financially longer than six months if they lost work. A third of people would be in crisis in four weeks.

Can the house-buying binge continue amid swelling rates, or are we heading down the other side of the mountain? Come to your own conclusions.

*   *   *

Canada’s government is making it easy for Ukrainian refugees to find safe haven here and stay for up to three years with emergency visas. Over the weekend a multitude of comments from people decrying this move since ‘millions’ of the destitute and devastated people would only make houses more expensive for Canadians were deleted.

Yes, you disgust me.

About the picture: “You may not remember, but a year before covid hit,” writes Paul, “I asked your advice as we were about to plunk down $135,000 for a newly renovated home in a small town on Nova Scotia’s south shore, figuring we could afford to have to property drop in value and still have a decent affordable place to live. You said go ahead, we did, and shortly after settling in, we found this little nugget: Corby, a Have-poo mix. Thank you, our lives have never been better!”

169 comments ↓

#1 Domino on 03.20.22 at 12:34 pm

This made me profoundly angry and sad .
And I would like to add ashamed of my fellow Canadians

Canada’s government is making it easy for Ukrainian refugees to find safe haven here and stay for up to three years with emergency visas. Over the weekend a multitude of comments from people decrying this move since ‘millions’ of the destitute and devastated people would only make houses more expensive for Canadians were deleted.

#2 Garthnation on 03.20.22 at 12:39 pm

Garth has a proven history with the accuracy of his assessment. The day of reckoning is around the corner for those who loaded up on real estate and debt. And it will be painful.

#3 crowdedelevatorfartz on 03.20.22 at 12:40 pm

The Trudeau govt is now stuck between a financial rock ( inflation) and a hard place ( interest rates).

Looks good on them…..heading into an inevitable election down the road.

#4 Garthnation on 03.20.22 at 12:42 pm

Glory to Ukraine and shame on those who tried to blame the housing bubble on Ukrainians.

#5 Flop… on 03.20.22 at 12:45 pm

I see the headline “ Drive On”, then I think for a second my car photo that I sent Thor Turner last week is a chance to feature.

Then I see the photo of the cute dog driving the car.

I can’t compete with that…

M47BC

#6 T-Rev on 03.20.22 at 12:45 pm

Come on Dogs- let’s turn todays comments into an info thread on how to take in Ukrainian refugees- I’ve done some googling and it’s not entirely clear, I know that some of you out there will know.

How does one offer up room in their home?

#7 Dan Rhodes on 03.20.22 at 12:46 pm

People are pissed that they are ‘allowing’ refugee’s with out being vaccinated! People are pissed as our government continues to provide our tax dollar’s to other countries while not taking care of Canadians. People are pissed that the media is stirring up more division based on the globalist cabal of bioweapons labs in Ukraine.
YOU HAVE ALWAYS DISGUSTED ME.

#8 Dharma Bum on 03.20.22 at 12:47 pm

For all of the credit addicts, debt pigs, spendaholics, HGTV junkies, refinancers, HELOCers, and FOMO sufferers out there, the day of reckoning is upon you.

Shoulda listened to Garth Almighty.

Time to batten down the hatches.

#9 Linda on 03.20.22 at 12:51 pm

‘Corby’ looks a bit wild eyed behind the wheel:) Cute!

I did read a headline in the past couple of days – I think it was on BNN – that stated some traders were expecting rates to reverse course by 2024. Crystal ball gazing or hopium at work?

#10 Faron on 03.20.22 at 12:55 pm

#91 Sail Away on 03.20.22 at 11:05 am

Hey, keep us posted. Steerage is dying to know about the riveting details of your every movement on this, your personal blog. That way we will know for sure you aren’t bat sht crazy. #BestLife #Winning #TiredOfSoMuchWinning.

I’ll do the same. We can be, like, blogbois. OMG everyonelovesussomuch!

#GarthsTime #JFC

#11 Ponzius Pilatus on 03.20.22 at 12:57 pm

Groupthink is a psychological phenomenon that occurs within a group of people in which the desire for harmony or conformity in the group results in an irrational or dysfunctional decision-making outcome. Cohesiveness, or the desire for cohesiveness, in a group may produce a tendency among its members to agree at all costs.[1] This causes the group to minimize conflict and reach a consensus decision without critical evaluation.[2][3]
Groupthink is a construct of social psychology, but has an extensive reach and influences literature in the fields of communication studies, political science, management, and organizational theory,[4] as well as important aspects of deviant religious cult behaviour.[5][6]
——————
Group think was my favourite subject when studying “Organizational Behaviour”.
Most decisions to start wars or military actions, are a result of this phenomenon.
An article that I just read, made reference to it.
Explaining “Putin’s war” in the Ukraine.
It also is very prevalent in the decision making of most large corporations.
Lots of studies supporting this .
Check it out, if interested.

#12 TurnerNation on 03.20.22 at 1:02 pm

The last couple of years proved how weak and frail is this country. So many have become dangerously radicalized.
We are primed to elect a(nother) dictator. Someone who will rail us against the Other.
Ideally this personal will be a slick orator, maybe with a remarkable hairdo or a natty dresser. Of the Federal leaders two come to mind. PP is in the wings.

USA truly is the melting pot. Kanada is a divided nation of vassal provinces; many still trumpeting their distinct culture (ahem) over the others.
No wonder the globalists have swooped in for the ripe pickings: Wheat board, railways, farm land etc.
We are an occupied nation — so get ready for the ongoing civil war theatrics.

#13 Satori on 03.20.22 at 1:08 pm

Since the start of the was 3300 Ukrainian people have come to Canada. Displaced from there homes, which no longer stand, given a three years emergency visa? In 3 years their homes still won’t be standing. I hope they find Canada a place they can exhale.

Regardless of numbers, on a human level, being Forced to move, to leave your father, brother, son behind. I cannot imagine how that would feel. Packing everything you have in a back pack.

Sad, devastating, heart breaking.

#14 I don't know on 03.20.22 at 1:11 pm

“Can the house-buying binge continue amid swelling rates, or are we heading down the other side of the mountain? Come to your own conclusions.”

-For SFD homes in large urban areas, yes. Condos or homes in far flung areas without the economy to support their prices might see some stagnation..maybe.

The reason is increasing rates will mean only people with large incomes and large down payments will be able to bid on SFD homes in urban areas, of which there aren’t enough. There aren’t enough SFD homes in urban for a myriad of reasons that cannot be changed for years.

Everyone else was priced out a while ago.

The result? The coming crisis is going to be very different than 2008 and the 80’s, when home prices declined slightly. The coming crisis will see house prices continuing on an unstoppable upward trajectory, creating problems that way.

You buy real estate (SFD in urban areas preferably) the moment you can afford to. Sitting in cash hoping for big hair and spandex to come back like the 80’s when our population was about 15 million less is a bad idea.

You also get a portfolio and buy assets as soon as you can. Sitting in cash was a bad idea over the last 10 years, and will be an even worse idea moving forward…regardless of what you watched on youtube and read on facebook comment threads.

IDK

#15 Søren Angst on 03.20.22 at 1:19 pm

Doug Rowat’s 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Minus 2-Year Treasury Constant Maturity

0.17

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/T10Y2Y

A couple more weeks like this and = 0.

Way ahead of predicted a few weeks ago at circa end of April.

————–

Ditto on the disgust Garth.

#16 BillyBob on 03.20.22 at 1:30 pm

#83 Satori on 03.20.22 at 1:00 am
#69 GarRick on 03.19.22 at 9:40 pm

“Please God, cut the internet to Faron’s computer”
————————————————–
A thousand AMENs to that!!!

========================================

Please stop making such hurtful posts. Did you not read Ustabe? In spite of being an academic titan devouring those before him, our good Dr. apparently feels bullied by posters who say anything negative about him or his opinions. (Don’t ask me to explain the logical disconnect there, it made more sense in the post maybe? TL;DR most of it)

Ustabe, please rally the Curmudgeon Crowd against these Sturdy Conservatives posthaste! The steerage section needs another dose of your paternalistic “wisdom”, stat!

Meanwhile, in much more positive pleasant and positive news, today we had a lovely hike around Divoká Šárka and enjoyed a semi-dark lager in the little chalet along the way. What a gift to enjoy on an early-spring day in the most cultured city in Europe.

#ShiftYourMindset #MentalHealthAwareness

#17 Christopher Mewhort, EA on 03.20.22 at 1:32 pm

I share your disgust, Mr. Turner. But I do quibble with your use of the word “easy”. Wife and I are trying to host refugees. Extra bedrooms all clean and ready, check. Extra beds all ready, check. Fridge and freezer full of food, check (We are committing to feed a family for at least a year). Car ready, check.

But wait! Step 1 is a criminal check with OPP. We rush our applications to OPP and are told that it will take at least two weeks – maybe longer.

Our local refugee outfit apparently has 42 hosts ready. But no word from above. A deafening silence from Ottawa.

Christopher Mewhort
519-525-9277

#18 Mosey on 03.20.22 at 1:32 pm

The rates, while indeed going higher, will soon plateau as governments raise the spectre of insolvency. Indeed, rates may even reverse if Mr Powell raises too quickly and markets start to tank in earnest. We saw this film in the last couple of years, entitled The Powell Pivot. They are currently in the process of making the sequel.

#19 Old Boot on 03.20.22 at 1:34 pm

“Canada’s government is making it easy for Ukrainian refugees to find safe haven here and stay for up to three years with emergency visas. Over the weekend a multitude of comments from people decrying this move since ‘millions’ of the destitute and devastated people would only make houses more expensive for Canadians were deleted.

Yes, you disgust me.”

************

More disturbing than the complaint that Ukrainian refugees would add to our housing costs were the number of comments that were printed, which alluded to the enthusiasm for pimping out vulnerable Ukrainian women that many comments here displayed.

Incels and sex tourists who would exploit vulnerable women for sex, in any country, are a plague.

“Most of the refugees will be women (preferentially applied).
As the rubber stamp process is only for 3 years landed status, most of these will be motivated to get pregnant with a Canadian citizen father. This will seal the end of term endorsement to remain.

I know quite a few Ukrainian descendant families on the Prairies and these women tend to be focused, motivated and great cooks.
Look out all you lazy Canadian millennial chicks. There is a tidal wave of competition coming your way.”

“I heard through the grape vine, that Chinese man are infatuated with blond blue-eyed Ukrainian women.
And the Chinese government is actively trying to be a match maker.
Chinese has about 100 million more man than ladies.
That’s a lot of testosterone that could erupt into a major up-rising, any time.”

#20 Søren Angst on 03.20.22 at 1:52 pm

#6 T-Rev

Come to Italia. We are mobilizing for them now in our communities.

https://www.comune.pordenone.it/it/comune/comunicazione/comune-informa/notizie/un-aiuto-alle-famiglie-ucraine

I donated to Save the Children. Will donate more here in Pordenone.

And we welcome their children, Dmytro 10 and Viktoriia 8, to Don Milani di Pomigliano d’Arco, Napoli.

CBS
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qwxjYoPFwUg

NYT
https://www.facebook.com/watch/?v=453685503216525

This is happening across Italia. No fanfare by us. It is seen as our duty to help and the least we can do for them.

Viva L’Italia.

Gloria all’Ucraina.

#21 twofatcats on 03.20.22 at 1:58 pm

How to make $130K in 3 months:

https://www.zolo.ca/port-colborne-real-estate/11-orchard-drive#sold-history

You forgot about the closing costs, including land transfer tax, and the 5% commission on the sale. – Garth

#22 I don't know on 03.20.22 at 1:59 pm

“Canada’s government is making it easy for Ukrainian refugees to find safe haven here and stay for up to three years with emergency visas. Over the weekend a multitude of comments from people decrying this move since ‘millions’ of the destitute and devastated people would only make houses more expensive for Canadians were deleted.

Yes, you disgust me.”

-Rightfully so.

All comment sections (and social media in general) have become hotbeds for the most radical voices, trolls looking to stir the pot, and paid foreign actors to forward their agendas.

#7 Dan Rhodes on 03.20.22 at 12:46 pm is a good example of that.

Equally as repugnant are Canadians who are so fixated on housing that they question why a Ukrainian would come to Canada to flee scud missiles when they wouldn’t be able to buy a home in downtown Toronto right away.

IDK

#23 Quintilian on 03.20.22 at 2:06 pm

“Those who borrowed to buy a house in 2021, for example, would see their loan costs double upon renewal. (Almost 40% of all borrowers will face a loan renewal in the next two years.)”

“Jingle Mail” was the term used as Americans just dropped of the keys at the bank on there way to a new town.

I don’t think Canadians will to that on mass.
What they will do is rent the house, and move into the garage, and take on a part time job with Uber etc.

However, because RE is a ponzi scheme, it will implode, as not many new entrants will be able to afford a knock down crack house for close to 2 million at even 3% and tighter lending.

Those who bought in 2021, will hang on for the “spring market” to pick up, year after year……….

#24 Grateful in Victoria on 03.20.22 at 2:22 pm

T-Rev
If there isn’t a Ukranian Centre in your city or town, there likely will be in a larger city nearby. If you contact them, they will know.
Also there is trustworthy website to donate money. It is called The Canada-Ukraine Foundation website: http://www.cufoundation.ca
I used it yesterday and it was safe and simple. If you read what they are doing they are funding refugees who are crossing the borders in Europe and giving medicines and financial assistance to those helping them. They are also getting assistance to the refugees in Lviv.

#25 Søren Angst on 03.20.22 at 2:22 pm

Nearby Veneto, Treviso area welcomes Ukrainian refugees to Valdobbiadene. Heart & Soul of the Prosecco wine producing region. Brindisi to them.

https://www.oggitreviso.it/profughi-lex-ospedale-di-valdobbiadene-ospita-13-ucraini-275383

The Mayor of Venezia hosts Ukrainian refugees at his home.
https://www.ansa.it/veneto/notizie/2022/03/04/ucraina-sindaco-venezia-accoglie-in-casa-donne-e-loro-figli_6deb715d-4d43-4bec-841c-7f6f8e2930f7.html

and Lombardia…
https://www.lombardianotizie.online/ucraina-accoglienza-profughi/

and Firenze…
https://www.toscanamedianews.it/firenze-ucraina-toscana-accoglie-profughi-negli-alberghi.htm

and Sicilia…
https://livesicilia.it/guerra-accoglienza-sicilia/

and Sardegna…
http://www.regione.sardegna.it/j/v/2568?s=433721&v=2&c=291&t=1

and Roma…
https://www.comune.roma.it/web/it/notizia.page?contentId=NWS895686#:~:text=La%20sede%2C%20che%20raccoglie%20in,it%20(vedi%20la%20locandina).

————————

Just do it Canada. Walk the talk.

#26 willworkforpickles on 03.20.22 at 2:23 pm

Its starting to catch on, becoming more widespread among people in general that inflation is a problem that could actually be here to stay.
They just haven’t been entirely convinced by justification that it really is here to stay as of yet.
Not with the game the Fed plays via a kid gloves easy as she goes approach in getting inflation under control. Fed-speak cover up and lies .
The truth is it can’t be done without upending the economy by setting interest rates above the current inflation rate of 7.9% as per CPI figures.

Its fully expected the Fed will back off on their wimpish interest rate increases when it becomes apparent a recession is in the offing. The taper which won’t ultimately be much of one will then be reversed for another round of full out QE.

You can forget the growth the optimists rail about. Artificial growth built mostly on government debt creation has manufactured a false economy debt bubble dependant on more government spending and monetization by the Fed to keep the econo/bubble from imploding.
Growth isn’t real growth outpaced by inflation created from debt. Artificial growth created out of debt creation trumped by inflation cannot and will not ever grow us out of debt but make it worse.

Inflation will soar. The masses will have their justification that inflation is here to stay.

This will culminate in an inflation recession when prices get too high and people stop spending except on necessities.

Price controls on debt fueled inflation won’t work either except to exacerbate worsening stagflation that will derail production on everything outside of basic necessities .

Price controls will throw millions out of work worse than the great depression as manufacturers and producers stop making everything but basic essentials price controls can’t be imposed on.

Rampant and rising inflation in time will de-value the dollar to where a rampant in lock step global dumping of dollars culminates in the upending of the US buck as the world’s reserve currency.

When this happens, historically restored interest rate levels and beyond will become the norm. There will be no other choice come then but to raise them in order to keep the bubble economy desperately in need of endless cash infusions from imploding.
Propping up the holders of the debt with hefty interest rate increases will be the demand.
Desperate measures to prevent a debt bubble implosion of crises proportion are coming.

Its going to culminate in a debt crises some time down the line. It may come sooner than later.
The only trick the Fed has left is in how long they can delay the inevitable with more bs.
The cheery optimists of today won’t be cheering in the later part of this decade.

Canada will not escape what’s coming Stateside.

#27 Sail Away on 03.20.22 at 2:26 pm

Here was a productive little Canadian arbitrage with our favourite snow machine inventor…and possible opportunity going forward:

https://uproarcapital.substack.com/p/stock-analysis-brp?s=r

#28 Faron on 03.20.22 at 2:29 pm

#19 Old Boot on 03.20.22 at 1:34 pm

Incels and sex tourists who would exploit vulnerable women for sex, in any country, are a plague.

Well said and utterly agreed. A frequent commenter has written about places where women are “friendly, if you know what I mean.” Disgusting. So much of the on the ground reporting is coming from hard working Ukrainian journalists and MPs. Good luck subjugating them on a Saskatchewan prairie any time in the near future.

#29 G on 03.20.22 at 2:34 pm

I can’t begin to imagine how ‘hard’ (an understatement) it would be to be a refugees for any reason.

Being forced to leave your country, your home, your job, your family, some you might have seen killed OMG.

Need to learn a new language, new customs, find any type of work to be able to buy food and stuff…
And if you have children …

And then most likely have too leave in three years.

Best wises for all. Welcome if you are able to get to Canada.

We are all only human after all.
Try and help each other if you can, every little bit can help. Even if it’s only a neighbor you can help with something, or just a kind word if that’s all you have at the moment. Or help your fellow human being in another way if you can.

#30 Sail Away on 03.20.22 at 2:53 pm

I call them Social Justice ‘Wussy-Faces’, but wouldn’t that to be come across as something negative.

#31 Debtslavecreator on 03.20.22 at 3:04 pm

Nah – 2 or 3 more increases. 3 is outside chance. Economy in early stages of major slowdown in reaction to oil spike.
By Sept/Oct rates down and QE re starts
The system is bankrupt. Can’t taper a Ponzi

#32 Manopeace on 03.20.22 at 3:04 pm

In 2019 my wife and I sold everything and moved our 3 kids from Mississsauga to Florida (I lived in Canada my whole life but was born in USA).

It was through much consternation we did this (lots of arguing) as moving a family from all they ever knew the comfy GTA life to the Deep South of America was well let’s just say a bit of a culture shock……today my wife and I looking back would have never realized it would be the single greatest decision we ever made for our family.

Our children have thrived which is not hard when you have sunshine, outdoors, personal freedom and limitless economic opportunities if you are self motivated….. I had to go back over the holidays to see my mother in Montreal and it was incredibly depressing seeing people walking around like zombies and to hear from our friends and family the depression of their children and the division among families about body autonomy…..it was like visiting a post war zone people are traumatized I was there 4 days and counted hours to get out and back to living. Not a day goes by now without family and friends asking me how the can get to the USA.

Like many my work has taken me to many countries so we know how great the feeling always was coming back home to Canada after a long trip. It’s hard watching what was once one of the greatest places on earth to live literally burning to the ground.

As for real estate I make more money now than I did in Canada but could not by the same house today that I lived in Mississsauga…..not that I ever would the Deep South of America is we’re they are going to bury this Canadian boy.

#33 Pbrasseur on 03.20.22 at 3:10 pm

On thing needs to be understood, the longer the central bank works to keep rates low despite inflation, either by setting rates or printing money, the more inflation will run so real investors will be spooked and will flee government bonds, this in the end will cause rates to go even higher to attract bond buyers.

The problem with inflation is that it can’t be kicked down the road, quite a pickle for our usual can kicking politicians…

#34 Paddy on 03.20.22 at 3:16 pm

“Getting ready for that will mean discipline. Lots of savings, prudent investing, strict budgeting and preparation for higher monthly payments or a big principal paydown”……….BAHAHAHAHAA……70% of those words don’t exist in the majority of people’s vocabulary here in gods country Canada…I wish good luck to those people…

#35 Satori on 03.20.22 at 3:18 pm

#16 BillyBob on 03.20.22 at 1:30 pm

FYI – ‘Hurtful Posts” is the exact reason why his internet should be cut. Give them a read… then comment.

#36 Doing my Part on 03.20.22 at 3:22 pm

Some hard working Ukrainian people, that appreciate the life you can have in Canada, is exactly what this country needs.
Ukrainians have contributed to build this country for the last 100 years, most arriving with nothing.
We should take as many as need to come and generously open our homes to them.
Glory to Ukraine.

#37 AM in MN on 03.20.22 at 3:45 pm

#17 Christopher Mewhort, EA on 03.20.22 at 1:32 pm
I share your disgust, Mr. Turner. But I do quibble with your use of the word “easy”. Wife and I are trying to host refugees. Extra bedrooms all clean and ready, check. Extra beds all ready, check. Fridge and freezer full of food, check (We are committing to feed a family for at least a year). Car ready, check.

But wait! Step 1 is a criminal check with OPP. We rush our applications to OPP and are told that it will take at least two weeks – maybe longer.

——————————————————–

The laziness of government workers never ceases to rear it’s head, even in a crisis.

Given that such a check requires a 2-minute computer record check, and pushing of the “print” button, the bigger shame is that workers who have been able to WFH at full pay for 2 years can’t put in a bit of evening work to clear the backlog.

Perhaps try this, I did it many years ago when pursuing an adoption in the US and needed record checks from everywhere I had lived for the previous 10 years. Some states like PA & NH you could get it on-line yourself.

For Canada you had to send to the RCMP in Ottawa and wait 5 months (or more).

Went back home for a couple days, went to the local RCMP office but they said they wouldn’t help if I wasn’t a resident anymore. How nice, after all those years of taxes!

Got a buddy who had a local business to write me a letter stating that he wanted to hire me, but needed a criminal background check first. Went back to same RCMP office and they gave it to me in 10 min.

Give it a try. Don’t take the first NO from a bureaucrat, there’s always a way around.

#38 canali on 03.20.22 at 3:45 pm

re: comments below: i don’t want more immigration (400,000 expected over the next few yrs) until we can get a fix on our housing supply issues (however, refugees are an exception and i think we should embrace those from war torn countries with open arms and hearts).

it’s so tough to find affordable rentals (people often thave to line up, give resumes with pictures, and also have to sometimes outbid others in the process to promote their candidacy, in the major cities..is as horrible as trying to buy/compete for RE….nuts)….and if you’re an immigrant/refugee trying to battle homesickness/culture shock, then trying to compete with affordable rentals with the locals adds to even more stress.

i welcome new immgrants with open arms (my grandparents were Irish)…but all levels of business/govt have to really work together and have bigger balls to come up with solutions to enable more housing if we are to increase the current levels.
———————
”Canada’s government is making it easy for Ukrainian refugees to find safe haven here and stay for up to three years with emergency visas. Over the weekend a multitude of comments from people decrying this move since ‘millions’ of the destitute and devastated people would only make houses more expensive for Canadians were deleted.

Yes, you disgust me.”

#39 baloney Sandwitch on 03.20.22 at 3:53 pm

I am not sure how accurate these surveys are or how well they are constructed. They tend to reflect the bias of their designers, at best – so I’d take them with a grain of salt or a beer.
Assuming that they are even half accurate, the question is, are we going to see a wave of bankruptcies in the next 5 years? power-of-sale palooza, as inflation spikes and the govt is forced to raise rates?

#40 David on 03.20.22 at 3:53 pm

Welcome Ukrainians ! We are grateful you have found refuge in our (now your beautiful country)! Live in peace and help teach Canadians how blessed we are to live here ! Hopefully you decide to stay and help make our country an even better place!

#41 Ponzius Pilatus on 03.20.22 at 4:17 pm

#87 crowdedelevatorfartz on 03.20.22 at 9:16 am
@#78 prepubescent Ponzie’s paternalistic prattle
“Chinese has about 100 million more man than ladies.
That’s a lot of testosterone that could erupt into a major up-rising, any time.”

+++
I thought that making jokes about European war refugees was beneath even you.
 ————————-
So, tell us what you are doing to help out the refugees from the Ukraine?
Put your money where your mouth is.
Talk is cheap.
I, for one, am content in my walking shoes, that my yearly donations to UNICEF, albeit small compared to the need, will help children in “all ” war zones.
Children should not suffer for the sins of their fathers.

#42 wallflower on 03.20.22 at 4:17 pm

Hilarious.
Those blog commenters you deleted who believe refugee Ukraines will spike housing market higher here are likely the same ones who believe the 400,000 immigrants recorded inbound last year did the same.
Absolutely hilarious — as 90% of those were already living here! Like where? On the streets? and once they got their permanent residency, they outbid you on a house?

#43 Ponzius Pilatus on 03.20.22 at 4:20 pm

#25 Søren Angst on 03.20.22 at 2:22 pm
Nearby Veneto, Treviso area welcomes Ukrainian refugees to Valdobbiadene. Heart & Soul of the Prosecco wine producing region. Brindisi to them.

https://www.oggitreviso.it/profughi-lex-ospedale-di-valdobbiadene-ospita-13-ucraini-275383

The Mayor of Venezia hosts Ukrainian refugees at his home.
https://www.ansa.it/veneto/notizie/2022/03/04/ucraina-sindaco-venezia-accoglie-in-casa-donne-e-loro-figli_6deb715d-4d43-4bec-841c-7f6f8e2930f7.html

and Lombardia…
https://www.lombardianotizie.online/ucraina-accoglienza-profughi/

and Firenze…
https://www.toscanamedianews.it/firenze-ucraina-toscana-accoglie-profughi-negli-alberghi.htm

and Sicilia…
https://livesicilia.it/guerra-accoglienza-sicilia/

and Sardegna…
http://www.regione.sardegna.it/j/v/2568?s=433721&v=2&c=291&t=1

and Roma…
https://www.comune.roma.it/web/it/notizia.page?contentId=NWS895686#:~:text=La%20sede%2C%20che%20raccoglie%20in,it%20(vedi%20la%20locandina).

————————

Just do it Canada. Walk the talk.
————
Just too bad, the Italians don’t treat refugees from Africa like that.

#44 Daveyboy on 03.20.22 at 4:28 pm

Out of all the Canadians, I know. I don’t know anyone, who has sold their home and took profits. However, I do know many who have bought second and third properties. This is going to be an awakening for many ,in the years to come.

#45 Honest Realtor on 03.20.22 at 4:34 pm

Canadians have big warm hearts when others are in need. Let’s join together and welcome 1,000,000 Ukrainians to Canada. This will have many positive effects for us all. It’s not about property, it’s about finding a new home.

#46 Upenuff on 03.20.22 at 4:39 pm

Sartori

Sad, devastating, heart breaking.
*******************************************

Our newest generations will learn the hard way….line ups to Starbucks and all else priveledged will diminish as the need to save pennies (sorry nickels) becomes a priority to feed their families.
In the meantime, I hate social media, as we watch, almost real time, as the Russian warships continue to unload a volly of bombs on the country of Ukraine with very little worry in the world. The world is increasingly starting to look like a bizarre video game, where onlookers just sit back in amazement as they witness tragic and tremendous loss.

Something has to give….

Upenuff

#47 Bol Shevich on 03.20.22 at 4:39 pm

Remember that Adam Vaughan said on TVO that Canadian real estate was NEVER meant for Canadian workers. Adam Vaughan specifically told Canadians it’s for global capital.

Global capital such as the Russian oligarchs, the oil dictator, the third world kleptocrats and the corrupt politicians who embezzle money to park in Toronto condos.

Vaughan said no such thing. – Garth

#48 cuke and tomato picker e on 03.20.22 at 4:42 pm

Number 40 David well said.

#49 Triplenet on 03.20.22 at 4:42 pm

#23 Quintilian
‘jingle mail’ was in BC 40 years ago.
So was ‘jingle credit union’.
History can repeat. Experience teaches us that.

#50 TurnerNation on 03.20.22 at 4:50 pm

Are we undergoing an Industrial Revolution?
Real easy here guys. Check the history books.

What must take place? The seizure of the Means of Production from the common man.
Now, nobody will be coming to your front door. No. How’s it’s accomplished:
100 years ago a craftsman making autos or auto parts would find that his suppliers and customers have flocked to the large corps’ Assembly Lines.

The Suppliers supplying parts at bulk rates; the customers enjoying the final product (cars) with this new economy of scale.
Sure the craftsman could continue building higher priced cars or parts and more slowly but why? Buy a lunchpail and hit the line.
All in all we’re just another brick in the wall.

FAST FORWARD to today, when the Old System was shut down in March 2020. All the Former First World Countries ordered small businesses shut. (For our health natch).
Forcing people to the large corps. Amazon. Wal-mart. Costco. Canadian Tire. Et, al

Once accustomed these consumers no longer will pay higher prices and slower delivery times from their local business..
The order to WFH only cemented the easy of cheap, fast home delivery delivery option. High land prices and condo developments further remove the means of production in the big cities. Cheap rent is gone. Bricks and mortar to the slaughter(house).

Our rulers play the long game. Step by step. One scary ‘news’ story at a time.

#51 charles scaling on 03.20.22 at 4:52 pm

Dear Garth, thanks for writing your excellent blog.
When it comes to housing though you are often wrong.
In 1967 the population of Canada was about 14million, in 1973 it had increased to around 19 million. Now in 2022 we are around 38 million and we still live in more or less the same areas that we lived in in 1967. How can prices not go up? Local Government, Provincial Government and the Federal Government are mostly responsible for the increases. More and more taxes rules and regulation imposed by educated idiots seeking to justify their useless jobs. I used to be a carpenter and in the 1970’s it would take a week or two to get a building permit now it can take a up to a year and costs a lot of money too. Then we have land transfer tax, we never used to have that, and what does the government do for that money ? Precisely Nothing!
I am an immigrant so I can’t complain about newcomers to this country but if we are to continue taking 300,000 new people a year we have to build for them. This means we have to have the additional trained workforce to build these new homes. Construction workers in Canada have low social status compared to, say, Germany, So young people are steered into Universities which are subsidized by the people know did not attend.
Regards, Charlie

#52 don't poke the bear on 03.20.22 at 4:52 pm

i said this all last year, that they should raise rates to 3% …

sadly now, they will get to 4% .. if they hurry. if not, … and they continue to screw the pooch, they will have to go higher.

the MINIMUM target for 5 year Canada bond yields today is 4% . hurry up and get there.

St. Louis Fed’s Jim Bullard wants a 3% Fed Funds rate by the end of 2022

the writing is on the wall.

#53 IHCTD9 on 03.20.22 at 4:53 pm

“Can the house-buying binge continue amid swelling rates, or are we heading down the other side of the mountain?”
— —- —

Ozzy has the answer:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UObs94oZRUU

#54 fishman on 03.20.22 at 5:02 pm

Dieselheads & Physicalists out west are keeping a close eye on the Train Strike. Hoping for big things from the Teamsters. Big ,big pay raises, benefits, share sharing, more more more.. The last few years the unions have been signing stinky contracts & the “boys” been getting creamed. Dropping like overworked flies into the sticky smelly swamp of landless working class tax serfs & just getting by”ers. This contract is going to set the standard of pay in western provinces for Trade Unions, Independents, Contractors & so on down the line. What I’m hearing from the longshoremen who are in contact with the trainmen is that their not in a good mood.

#55 Flop… on 03.20.22 at 5:03 pm

#41 Ponzius Pilatus on 03.20.22 at 4:17 pm
#87 crowdedelevatorfartz on 03.20.22 at 9:16 am
@#78 prepubescent Ponzie’s paternalistic prattle
“Chinese has about 100 million more man than ladies.
That’s a lot of testosterone that could erupt into a major up-rising, any time.”

+++
I thought that making jokes about European war refugees was beneath even you.
————————-
So, tell us what you are doing to help out the refugees from the Ukraine?
Put your money where your mouth is.
Talk is cheap.
I, for one, am content in my walking shoes, that my yearly donations to UNICEF, albeit small compared to the need, will help children in “all ” war zones.
Children should not suffer for the sins of their fathers.

//////////////////////////

Ponzie making donations to UNICEF?

No way!

I don’t believe for one minute that you donate to any organization that has the words CEF in the title…

M47BC

#56 Grunt on 03.20.22 at 5:04 pm

Hopium- good un Garth fell off me chair in hysterics.

Let the Ukrainian in.

#57 Don Guillermo on 03.20.22 at 5:07 pm

#32 Manopeace on 03.20.22 at 3:04 pm
In 2019 my wife and I sold everything and moved our 3 kids from Mississsauga to Florida (I lived in Canada my whole life but was born in USA).

It was through much consternation we did this (lots of arguing) as moving a family from all they ever knew the comfy GTA life to the Deep South of America was well let’s just say a bit of a culture shock……today my wife and I looking back would have never realized it would be the single greatest decision we ever made for our family.

Our children have thrived which is not hard when you have sunshine, outdoors, personal freedom and limitless economic opportunities if you are self motivated….. I had to go back over the holidays to see my mother in Montreal and it was incredibly depressing seeing people walking around like zombies and to hear from our friends and family the depression of their children and the division among families about body autonomy…..it was like visiting a post war zone people are traumatized I was there 4 days and counted hours to get out and back to living. Not a day goes by now without family and friends asking me how the can get to the USA.

Like many my work has taken me to many countries so we know how great the feeling always was coming back home to Canada after a long trip. It’s hard watching what was once one of the greatest places on earth to live literally burning to the ground.

As for real estate I make more money now than I did in Canada but could not by the same house today that I lived in Mississsauga…..not that I ever would the Deep South of America is we’re they are going to bury this Canadian boy

*********
Good for you. My nephew did similar in 2019. Highly educated and productive Canadian in his prime. Sadly a win for the USA.

#58 IHCTD9 on 03.20.22 at 5:14 pm

#23 Quintilian on 03.20.22 at 2:06 pm
“Those who borrowed to buy a house in 2021, for example, would see their loan costs double upon renewal. (Almost 40% of all borrowers will face a loan renewal in the next two years.)”

“Jingle Mail” was the term used as Americans just dropped of the keys at the bank on there way to a new town.

I don’t think Canadians will to that on mass

——-

“En masse”

Most Canucks don’t have the jingle mail option. Full recourse mortgages baby…

#59 Ponzius Pilatus on 03.20.22 at 5:30 pm

Any of posters here ever been a refugee?
My mother and I fled from East Germany just before the wall went up.
We were allowed to leave, but had to leave everything behind.
We went to Austria were we had some relatives, but they were in no shape to help us out.
I leave it there, just to tell you it was not a bed of roses.
What people have to understand is, that there are classes of refugees.
Those who’ve got the money and connections go out first and easily start a new life.
Then are the rest, like my mother and myself.
They pretty much gotta fend for themselves.
Not complaining, actually grateful for all the experience.
What does not kill you makes you stronger.
Interesting story:
The former Finance Minister of Afghanistan, of course made,  it to the States.
Now he’s a Uber driver.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/nation/2022/03/18/afghanistans-last-finance-minister-now-dc-uber-driver-ponders-what-went-wrong/

#60 Yukon Elvis on 03.20.22 at 5:32 pm

#28 Faron on 03.20.22 at 2:29 pm
#19 Old Boot on 03.20.22 at 1:34 pm

Incels and sex tourists who would exploit vulnerable women for sex, in any country, are a plague.

Well said and utterly agreed. A frequent commenter has written about places where women are “friendly, if you know what I mean.” Disgusting. So much of the on the ground reporting is coming from hard working Ukrainian journalists and MPs. Good luck subjugating them on a Saskatchewan prairie any time in the near future.
+++++++++++++++++++++++
Effexor, Trazodone, Wellbutrin, Bupropion… could help.

#61 Flop… on 03.20.22 at 5:43 pm

Since I got my government job and won’t be taking as much holidays anymore (that doesn’t sound right but it is factual) maybe it’s time to offload my R.V.

I’m a decent size human being, and I don’t want to buy anything too small, as that just causes back problems.

Don’t need to haul around tools anymore so I don’t need a truck.

Hoping to spend around 10k for a decent size piece of metal on 4 pieces of rubber.

Would a 2016/2017ish Dodge Journey SUV be a good place to start?

Asking so my wife puts the frying pan down…

M47BC

#62 red falcon on 03.20.22 at 5:43 pm

those that are addicted to Hopium have always had a distinct and easy tell, and that is the ever hopeful and forever optimistic view of real estate will always be uppa uppa uppa! Well, Interest rates are starting to uppaCut you guys. Hope you like what you’re taking in, cuz that’s the reality and truth here.

Uppa? haha uppa you instead.

#63 westcoaster on 03.20.22 at 5:55 pm

Our real estate advisor is telling us not to worry about any interest rate hikes because they suggest that we borrow against the equity we have built up and then pay off the lower interest rate debt with that money and then we can write of higher interest rate debt and then come out ahead or at least cancel all the interest. It sounds like a good idea but I don’t really understand it all.

Get a new advisor. – Garth

#64 crowdedelevatorfartz on 03.20.22 at 5:58 pm

@#54 fishman
“This contract is going to set the standard of pay in western provinces for Trade Unions, Independents, Contractors & so on down the line. ”
+++

This will be… “The Year of the Strike”.
390,000 unionized BC govt workers are set to get their pound of flesh starting April 1st when their contracts expire.

The and after 2 years of covid lockdowns, high inflation and rising bank rates….private sector is staggering like like a punch drunk boxer.

Wage and price inflation chasing each other to a full stop recession like the 1980’s?

Stay tuned.

#65 crowdedelevatorfartz on 03.20.22 at 6:02 pm

@#41 pathetic ponzies pennies per person

” my yearly donations to UNICEF, albeit small compared to the need…”

+++

Squalid donations allow you to joke about desperate female Ukrainian refugees being married off to 100 million Chinese men?
Pathetic.

#66 Ustabe on 03.20.22 at 6:08 pm

Most Canucks don’t have the jingle mail option. Full recourse mortgages baby…

Only Alberta if my knowledge is current.

Most of all of you all don’t or won’t recall that prior to Mulroney chartered banks were unable to provide insurance services. Credit Unions were not allowed to lend out mortgages, instead using “loans on real property”.

These is more to it but basically when he allowed the banks more operational bandwidth he had to placate the insurance companies and the credit unions. Banks got the steak but he tossed a few pork chops to the credit unions.

So, for instance, CUs immediately abandoned the loans on real property and went all in on mortgages. Gee…wonder why?

Let me bore you with some of the terms/conditions of my “loan on real property” prior to Mulroney opening up banking in Canada like the wild west:

If interest rates rose so did the loan’s 3 months later.

If interest rates declined so did the loan’s, immediately.

Fully portable and/or transferable. Major selling point if the purchaser had to take out a bank mortgage at a higher rate than what was left on your loan.

No, none, zero prepayment penalties at all.

If the original amount was $100,000 and you had brought it down to $50,000 you had the ability to use that missing $50,000 with zero fees, no delays, basically as simple as a phone call. This is the one that made us into owners of a stable/profitable property management company rather than a couple of guys owning a few rentals.

The terms and conditions are far, far more important to the residential mortgage holder than the interest rate. Interest rate is the sizzle, T&C is the meat of the matter.

#67 canada on 03.20.22 at 6:12 pm

It is nice that Canadian Government is helping refugees. But should we take in unlimited number of refugees? Are there enough jobs for all the refugees who are coming in? Will increasing competition lead to wage stagnation? If Canada takes in 5000 refugees, I think that should be reasonable. US economy could support a lot more refugees but they are taking in a lot less.

#68 Rochdale GM on 03.20.22 at 6:12 pm

Totally get your disgust.
I’m proud of my kids for not reproducing.
Humanity sux.

#69 Sail Away on 03.20.22 at 6:30 pm

#57 Don Guillermo on 03.20.22 at 5:07 pm
#32 Manopeace on 03.20.22 at 3:04 pm

In 2019 my wife and I sold everything and moved our 3 kids from Mississsauga to Florida (I lived in Canada my whole life but was born in USA).

It was through much consternation we did this (lots of arguing) as moving a family from all they ever knew the comfy GTA life to the Deep South of America was well let’s just say a bit of a culture shock……today my wife and I looking back would have never realized it would be the single greatest decision we ever made for our family.

Our children have thrived which is not hard when you have sunshine, outdoors, personal freedom and limitless economic opportunities if you are self motivated….. I had to go back over the holidays to see my mother in Montreal and it was incredibly depressing seeing people walking around like zombies and to hear from our friends and family the depression of their children and the division among families about body autonomy…..it was like visiting a post war zone people are traumatized I was there 4 days and counted hours to get out and back to living. Not a day goes by now without family and friends asking me how the can get to the USA.

Like many my work has taken me to many countries so we know how great the feeling always was coming back home to Canada after a long trip. It’s hard watching what was once one of the greatest places on earth to live literally burning to the ground.

As for real estate I make more money now than I did in Canada but could not by the same house today that I lived in Mississsauga…..not that I ever would the Deep South of America is we’re they are going to bury this Canadian boy

———

Good for you. My nephew did similar in 2019. Highly educated and productive Canadian in his prime. Sadly a win for the USA.

———

I would never buy a house here at these prices and do love the American south, having lived in Kentucky, Texas and Georgia… but also love it here, and Alaska, and enjoyed Michigan during school.

So, basically everywhere has its perks. That being the case, why would any motivated young people stay where economic advancement is hamstrung and the baying hounds of wokeism make kids afraid to transform into effective adults?

One benefit of the wokey garbage, though, is that almost nobody hunts in Canada any more, so game is everywhere, which for me and the dog pack, is fantastic.

Where we lay our head is home. When poor, that meant making the best economic and career decisions we knew. Now it means helping our kids do the same. Everybody has to look after their and their family’s best interests.

#70 refugees on 03.20.22 at 6:31 pm

Why did Canadian Government not allow unlimited number of Afghan, Syrian, Libyan and Yemeni refugees? There is a war going on in Middle East and Africa for over 10-15 years. Why don’t we help these refugees also? Are we all racists?

#71 PeterfromCalgary on 03.20.22 at 6:36 pm

The elephant in the room which no one seems to be discussing is food. How in the world is the world going to make up for all the food produced in Ukraine? What will be the geo-political ramifications of people going hungry?

#72 OK, Doomer on 03.20.22 at 6:46 pm

I read an interesting article that says that interest rates won’t need to rise to 18% to tame inflation like they did in 1980.

The reason is simple; people are so pickled in debt that the needed amount of personal pain, carnage and mayhem will occur at around a 6% interest rate.

As one old business associate once said, “The numbers don’t get better, they just get bigger.”.

#73 Re-Cowtown on 03.20.22 at 6:48 pm

#71 PeterfromCalgary on 03.20.22 at 6:36 pm
The elephant in the room which no one seems to be discussing is food. How in the world is the world going to make up for all the food produced in Ukraine? What will be the geo-political ramifications of people going hungry?
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

Food from Ukraine is one thing. Fertilizer and fuel from Russia is quite another.

One Pundit once remarked that today’s agriculture is the wholesale conversion of petroleum to food. We’re going to find out if his assertion is correct.

#74 Sail Away on 03.20.22 at 6:53 pm

#71 PeterfromCalgary on 03.20.22 at 6:36 pm

How in the world is the world going to make up for all the food produced in Ukraine?

———

The CP Rail workers union is doing everything they can to help by going on strike exactly when Canadian farmers need fertilizer to grow, you know, food and stuff.

#75 NOSTRADAMUS on 03.20.22 at 6:59 pm

SCREW ME ONCE SHAME ON YOU, SCREW ME TWICE, SHAME ON ME!
Cash is the most prized commodity because of its optionality for buying when the masses are liquidating. But as usual, “Cash Is Trash,” brain washing by the product selling financial sector means few will have it at the ready.
The future for the stock market and their first cousin real estate. If the central banks fail to prop up these markets, a second consecutive generation of investors will capitulate and never again touch these markets. There is an old saying, ” screw me once, shame on you, screw me twice, shame on me.”
Regarding the policies of the central banks, To quote Garth Vader, ” it was as clumsy, as it was stupid.”
Getting back to the campfire, I don’t think a lot of the overindebted will be holding hands singing, KUM BI AH. I am on my throne, and I will not step down.

#76 Flop… on 03.20.22 at 7:07 pm

#71 PeterfromCalgary on 03.20.22 at 6:36 pm
The elephant in the room which no one seems to be discussing is food. How in the world is the world going to make up for all the food produced in Ukraine? What will be the geo-political ramifications of people going hungry?

/////////////////////////

Growing food is one side of the equation, wasting it is another.

It’s good to grow bro, but let’s check out what the heathens south of us are up to.

Let’s look at this recent article to see what scale we are talking about.

“The Enormous Scale of America’s Food Waste”

Enormous, huh, sounds pretty big, how big?

80 Billion pounds of food is wasted each year in the US, or 30 to 40 % of America’s annual food supply, they state.

250 pounds of wasted food per person.

22% of municipal landfill waste.

80% of Americans discard good food because of unclear labeling, my bet on that’s large amount of this problem is the confusion between “use by” and “best before” which no one seems to know the difference.

I kept waiting to see the sentence where they tell us the best thing for the planet is to all eat bugs, but I guess they’ll save that for another time…

M47BC

https://www.visualcapitalist.com/the-enormous-scale-of-americas-food-waste/

#77 Ponnaps on 03.20.22 at 7:14 pm

It’s not as bad as you make it sound … houses I was interested in back in 2013 would have me carry a $1 million mortgage as it does now when I sell my current house and go for that particular house that I couldn’t afford in 2013.. coupled with increase in rents I may actually be better of cash flow wise thereby also offering a cushion should rates spike 1-2%

This is just not my story but appears to be the norm across the board

#78 Ed on 03.20.22 at 7:15 pm

I would prefer to employ Ukrainians immigrants over the average Canadian any day. Bring them all over here!

#79 Ed on 03.20.22 at 7:26 pm

#24 Also there is trustworthy website to donate money. It is called The Canada-Ukraine Foundation website: http://www.cufoundation.ca

I’m pretty sure most of us are a bit leery of giving online after the trucker fiasco.

#80 conan on 03.20.22 at 7:37 pm

There is no reason to think anything else except real estate “flat lining” if interest rates go crazy.

There will be many boat loads of people who have larger house payments than pay check.
Pandemic headaches + Putin’s expensive war + house Armageddon = more market volatility.

#81 Neo on 03.20.22 at 7:39 pm

God for you. Its your blog and you can delete any comment you choose. Unfortunately the truth will still be the truth.

The central bankers did not screw up. You keep saying that like its staffed by a bunch of birthday clowns. Central bankers are the surge of humanity. Always have been. What you are seeing in food and shelter prices, families with no savings, more billionaires. This is the plan. This is exactly what was expected when policy was made.

Buy guns not fraudcoin. Civilization is on the verge of collapse.

#82 Quintilian on 03.20.22 at 7:40 pm

#58 IHCTD9 on 03.20.22 at 5:14 pm

“Most Canucks don’t have the jingle mail option. Full recourse mortgages baby…”

Excuse my French IH.

But most Canucks would not make use of “jingle mail” option, even if it were available.

No matter how bad it will get, most will think the next spring market will bring prices back to pre-crash.
It is now imprinted in the DNA. They don’t realize that in historical terms, the last few decades have been an aberration.

Just a Central Banker’s Frankensteinian experiment with freakish longevity.

#83 I don't know on 03.20.22 at 7:50 pm

#32 Manopeace on 03.20.22 at 3:04 pm

I’ve heard the opposite being true as well (family members leaving for New York and then returning for a better work life balance.

Canada is a toned down version of the US.

When the US booms (as it is now) Canada appears less successful. When the US busts (like it did in 2008), Canada appears stronger.

It’s always been the case.

IDK

#84 IHCTD9 on 03.20.22 at 7:58 pm

Bud at work is an avid hunter/fisherpeoplekind. I’ve been asking what he’s been eating at lunchtime as it’s obviously been some home-brew concoction. Various iterations of deer. Wild turkey. Home grown chicken. Wild Partridge (grouse). Walleye, Pike, Crappie. He’s got fillets, pepperettes, sausages, steaks, roasts, chops, you name it. Freezer has a couple hundred lbs of meat. Lots of garden stuff too in jars.

Another dude makes wine from rhubarb, and a Vietnamese bloke who makes some killer home cooked hooch (so I’m told).

All we need now is a guy who can bake, and we’d be pretty much food-inflation proof.

#85 Squire on 03.20.22 at 8:13 pm

Canada’s government is making it easy for Ukrainian refugees to find safe haven here and stay for up to three years with emergency visas. Over the weekend a multitude of comments from people decrying this move since ‘millions’ of the destitute and devastated people would only make houses more expensive for Canadians were deleted.

Yes, you disgust me.
————————
I think the last thing most of the Ukrainian refugees are thinking is to buy real estate. First, many will want to know if their male partners are still alive and then second is what to they do now that they’re in Canada. I don’t think they have a clue how greedy FOMO Canadians are thinking at this time. lol Get a grip folks, these people just had their lives bombed to hell. They are in survival mode not FOMO.

#86 Squire on 03.20.22 at 8:19 pm

#70 refugees on 03.20.22 at 6:31 pm
Why did Canadian Government not allow unlimited number of Afghan, Syrian, Libyan and Yemeni refugees? There is a war going on in Middle East and Africa for over 10-15 years. Why don’t we help these refugees also? Are we all racists?
—————–
I doubt that. There are about 1.4m Ukrainian or people with Ukrainian ancestry in Canada. That represent many connections to Ukraine. Yemen, not so much. Europe would be an easier destination for the countries you mentioned. Another reason is our Freeland seems to have a strong motivation to help, I wonder why.

#87 Dogs Not Barking on 03.20.22 at 8:21 pm

#82 Quintilian on 03.20.22 at 7:40 pm
#58 IHCTD9 on 03.20.22 at 5:14 pm

“Most Canucks don’t have the jingle mail option. Full recourse mortgages baby…”

Excuse my French IH.

But most Canucks would not make use of “jingle mail” option, even if it were available.

No matter how bad it will get, most will think the next spring market will bring prices back to pre-crash.

+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

You’re faulty assumption is that the bank won’t punch their ticket first.

The bank makes the decision, not the homeowner.

#88 biased on 03.20.22 at 8:28 pm

#Ed I hope you realize your comments are racist.

Are all Ukrainians better than Canadians irrespective of their skills? Are there NO Ukrainians with poor work ethic? Are all Ukrainians well qualified and suited for the job? Do they have all the skills you require for the job? Would you gladly employ all Syrian or Afghan refugees?

The reason US companies are great is because they hire on Merit and they hire the best and brightest irrespective of race, religion and colour. They hire the person who is most suitable for the job and they make the companies great.

#89 Ponzius Pilatus on 03.20.22 at 8:30 pm

#74 Sail Away on 03.20.22 at 6:53 pm
#71 PeterfromCalgary on 03.20.22 at 6:36 pm

How in the world is the world going to make up for all the food produced in Ukraine?

———

The CP Rail workers union is doing everything they can to help by going on strike exactly when Canadian farmers need fertilizer to grow, you know, food and stuff.
————-
Yeah,
People are selfish.
Tell us more about it.
You’re the expert.

#90 Midnight's on 03.20.22 at 8:33 pm

“We”, who’s we?
By we you mean Trudeau and his policies and Freeland and Her fiscal policies. Sorry, no “we” here. Those 2 sit at the head of the table and there’s no wall between the Central Bank and Gov’t. We, lmbo…

#91 Midnight's on 03.20.22 at 8:36 pm

2 Garthnation on 03.20.22 at 12:39 p

YOUR HIGH, get off the glue.

#92 Faron on 03.20.22 at 8:37 pm

#30 Sail Away on 03.20.22 at 2:53 pm

…but wouldn’t that to be come…

Someone broke clippy.

#93 Flop… on 03.20.22 at 8:44 pm

Help Flop find a new vehicle, part 2.

Dodge Journey Consumer Report.

“The 2011 reworking brought a much nicer interior and a better V6, but the lack of agility and still-mediocre fuel economy keep it out of the top ranks. Plus it was more expensive than many better rivals. Poor IIHS small overlap crash-test results and below average owner satisfaction add to the long list of demerits. Three row seating became standard for 2018. Ultimately, we think you’d be better served looking at something else. The V6 engine and all-wheel drive were dropped in 2020 and the Journey finally came to an end.”

Doesn’t sound that rapturous

So maybe I’m more of a GMC Terrain type of guy?

North American cars, I don’t trust them, but you don’t see too many 6 foot 2, 250 pound Asians so they aren’t too worried about catering to guys my size.

Maybe I cut the roof off, and only take it out on sunny days…

M47BC

#94 Yukon Elvis on 03.20.22 at 8:51 pm

#84 IHCTD9 on 03.20.22 at 7:58 pm
Bud at work is an avid hunter/fisherpeoplekind. I’ve been asking what he’s been eating at lunchtime as it’s obviously been some home-brew concoction. Various iterations of deer. Wild turkey. Home grown chicken. Wild Partridge (grouse). Walleye, Pike, Crappie. He’s got fillets, pepperettes, sausages, steaks, roasts, chops, you name it. Freezer has a couple hundred lbs of meat. Lots of garden stuff too in jars.

Another dude makes wine from rhubarb, and a Vietnamese bloke who makes some killer home cooked hooch (so I’m told).

All we need now is a guy who can bake, and we’d be pretty much food-inflation proof.
+++++++++++++++
My granny used to make dandelion wine. I used to go out with her and pick them. It was really good wine and I used to steal a bottle or two whenever I could. It was way better than the grape wine I used to steal from my Dad. Unfortunately I never got the recipe before she passed.

#95 A01 on 03.20.22 at 9:00 pm

Hey Garth, love the blog. Do you have info the degree of leverage in cottage country. You would have to assume a lot of these were financed from the equity of a primary residence. Would we not start to see cracks in these areas first as interest rates rise on mortgages, lines of credit etc.

#96 Coastal gal on 03.20.22 at 9:03 pm

#93 Flop
If you are on Vancouver Island I have a 2006 Nissan X- trail for sale. 237,000 km. 4×4 for winter. $4k

#97 Ustabe on 03.20.22 at 9:23 pm

Before I go up and start my Kenji Lopez-Alt recipe fried chicken for dinner tonight I’ll pass on two things I learned from a couple of immigrants to Canada.

He was from Germany, she was from Czech, married they both were veterinarians, worked with my wife. We shared a love of BC’s far north, Yukon and Northwest Territories road tripping, paddling, camping, etc and food.

From him: “butter” your grilled cheese type sandwiches with mayonnaise. It toasts up ridiculously good with no greasy feel. (two slices of bakery sourdough, a split wheel of Camembert, a dash of wild, low bush blueberry jam, onto the flat top or a large pan…)

From her: Any cold sandwich be it a sub or a simple deli meat and greens of some sort snack needs to have a dressing of some sort put onto the lettuce or spinach or spring mix…not soaked but a drizzle of balsamic, Greek or even simple olive oil. Whatever you like really but dress your greens with a bit of acidic stuff. (Two slices of good bread or a nice ciabatta bun, thin sliced rare roast beef that has been in the smoker for a time and crumbles of blue cheese, then spinach lashed with a tiny amount of red wine vinegar makes an appearance here quite often …)

@Flop; a Dodge Journey is what you get when you have given up on life. You need a Lexus L570, basically a Land Cruiser all dolled up. Used are pricey (Toyota tax and popularity) but with minimal maintenance will run for decades.

#98 Peter in Toronto on 03.20.22 at 9:27 pm

Are there any economic models or portfolios that have factored in the very real possibility of nuclear combat? The Ukraine situation is horribly dangerous – one slip, one miscalculation, one hand over-played could lead to nuclear war and the extinction of life on earth…what would WW3 actually look like:

“Within the first 3 minutes of a nuclear conflict, 2600 ‘high alert’ nuclear weapons are launched. They hit targets in Russia, the US and Europe. They target cities, nuclear power stations, industrial areas, oil refineries, transport hubs. In the following hours up to a further 7600 nuclear weapons are launched.
By the end of the day 600 million people are dead. They are the lucky ones”…

https://richardhennerley.wordpress.com/2022/02/12/what-would-world-war-3-look-like/

What’s a good investment strategy that accounts for this?

#99 SHUT THIS BLOG DOWN NOW! on 03.20.22 at 9:41 pm

ADELE IS ON TV, LIVE!!

Leave this pathetic blog and go to CTV right now!!

ADELE YOU ARE AWESOME!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

#100 Adam on 03.20.22 at 9:44 pm

How pissed off are sensible people going to be when a significant chunk of over leveraged are “bailed out” by some arbitrary mechanism within the next 24-36 months?

Oh yeah, it’ll happen, and oh yeah, it’s going to rot

#101 Midnight’s on 03.20.22 at 9:46 pm

DELETED

#102 Logic and Reason on 03.20.22 at 9:49 pm

Strangers now buying houses together. Co-ownership.

https://vancouver.citynews.ca/video/2022/03/20/co-purchasing-a-home-to-get-into-the-vancouver-housing-market/

The trend is clear. Ever higher prices are coming.

#103 Sail Away on 03.20.22 at 9:51 pm

Re: nuclear armageddon

Well, if she all goes kablooey and the flash-booms start, Lillooet, BC has a full-on survival compound built many moons ago specifically for this situation.

Walden North:

http://lillooet.ca/Recreation-Activities/Golden-Miles-of-History/Vernon-Pick-and-Walden-North.aspx

#104 Michael in-north-york on 03.20.22 at 9:56 pm

#98 Peter in Toronto on 03.20.22 at 9:27 pm
===

The best investment strategy for a nuclear conflict is to get rid of the psychotic fascist in Kremlin, and thus avoid the conflict.

If the Kremlin’s fascist cannot be removed at this time, then just invest as if the risk of war doesn’t exist. If the war doesn’t happen, you win. If the war erupts, you no longer need to worry about your portfolio.

#105 Km on 03.20.22 at 9:56 pm

Most have had the stress test so defaults are unlikely as well as most will keep buying as they have this already part of their financial plan having to factor rates being around 6 percent. Hopefully it will calm down but Fomo is a crazy disease and most seem to have it.

As for deleting comments about refugees and housing I am glad you did. I would have found it too sickening to have to read especially since we know family and friends who have lost people there and are desperate just to find out if they are dead or alive.

#106 Faron on 03.20.22 at 10:03 pm

#97 Ustabe on 03.20.22 at 9:23 pm

Yum.

If your cast iron is well seasoned, save some cheese for the outside of the sammich. Works for quesadillas too. Thank me later.

Ever paddle the Spatzizi or Stikine (upper)? Bucket-list rivers for me.

#60 Yukon Elvis on 03.20.22 at 5:32 pm

Nothing wrong with it, but you seem to know a hell of a lot of antidepressants. But, FYI, bupropion and Wellbutrin are the same molecule. Same goes for prozac and fluoxetine. etc. Helping you be more concise now that clippy is on the fritz.

Anyhow, I’m having trouble with a narcissistic sociopath, what do you recommend for him Dr. Elvis?

#107 Guiseppe Morena on 03.20.22 at 10:06 pm

“Yes, you disgust me.”

Now tell us how you really feel.

#108 millmech on 03.20.22 at 10:06 pm

#70
Good question that will not get answered, I wonder how many helpers that Canada left behind to face the consequences for providing assistance to Canadian troops in Afghanistan.
Looks like only 20,000 Afghanistan people were accepted to our country out of a country of 40,000,000. The Ukraine has the same population and we are willing to take 1,000,000,.
I guess the other 980,000 Afghans know they would have a better life in their home country than to be accepted with open arms here.

Nobody said we are (a) taking a million Ukrainians or (b) that they can stay longer than three years. – Garth

#109 Sail Away on 03.20.22 at 10:08 pm

#89 Ponzius Pilatus on 03.20.22 at 8:30 pm
#74 Sail Away on 03.20.22 at 6:53 pm

The CP Rail workers union is doing everything they can to help by going on strike exactly when Canadian farmers need fertilizer to grow, you know, food and stuff.

———-

People are selfish.
Tell us more about it.
You’re the expert.

———-

Never would I hold rutabagas hostage for a few extra bucks

#110 yvr_lurker on 03.20.22 at 10:20 pm

the biggest annual deficits in history and billions accumulating in personal bank accounts, much of which was unleashed on real estate.
—————
I agree with this post, but this statement “billions accumulating in personal bank accounts “does not seem credible. Is there some statistics and evidence that a large segment of the population got COVID bucks , while still working full time in order to enrich themselves (i.e. 30% of citizens? 40%?). Whole industries were shut down, and if someone was out of work (airline personnel etc..), 2K per month from COVID would not have been going to their accounts with bills to be paid. Was it that employers who were not suffering tapped into this resource pretending to save the jobs of workers, when they were handling the situation well? This is much more likely in my view. Unless there is actual evidence on the percentage of people who unfairly benefited from the COVID $$ to accumulate unwarranted Gov’t funds in order by real estate, I think that this comment of Garth is inflammatory.
I can fully believe that Mom and Pop have been giving massive amounts of inter-generational transfers to prop up real estate.

Canadians accumulated $184 billion in gross excess savings in the first 12 months of the pandemic, with the savings rate touching 27% while the unemployment rate hit 14%. The money did not fall out of the sky. – Garth

#111 mike from mtl on 03.20.22 at 10:27 pm

While I admire your determination to a central theme, the reality does not change.

Residential RE is a slow moving moss ball affected by policy and lending, nothing meaningful is going to affect that. Urban land has never truly lost value.

Commercial RE is so hugely overvalued, on top of itself for decades, but now is laid bare with viable alternatives. The 20th century rebranding to cube farms is so done.

Problem is now what?

#112 Yukon Elvis on 03.20.22 at 10:32 pm

#106 Faron on 03.20.22 at 10:03 pm
#97 Ustabe on 03.20.22 at 9:23 pm

Yum.

If your cast iron is well seasoned, save some cheese for the outside of the sammich. Works for quesadillas too. Thank me later.

Ever paddle the Spatzizi or Stikine (upper)? Bucket-list rivers for me.

#60 Yukon Elvis on 03.20.22 at 5:32 pm

Nothing wrong with it, but you seem to know a hell of a lot of antidepressants. But, FYI, bupropion and Wellbutrin are the same molecule. Same goes for prozac and fluoxetine. etc. Helping you be more concise now that clippy is on the fritz.

Anyhow, I’m having trouble with a narcissistic sociopath, what do you recommend for him Dr. Elvis?
++++++++++++++++
There are hotlines you can call. They talk to anybody. It is their job. Might take the edge off for ya.

#113 don't poke the bear on 03.20.22 at 10:40 pm

drive on is right….

US Domestic Car Inventories (31,000)
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/AUINSA

US Car inventories to Sales (0.17)
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/AISRSA

anyone think used car prices will fall any time soon? not a chance.

inflation is RAMPANT.

5% rates TOMORROW please!!

#114 Ponzius Pilatus on 03.20.22 at 10:43 pm

#96 Coastal gal on 03.20.22 at 9:03 pm
#93 Flop
If you are on Vancouver Island I have a 2006 Nissan X- trail for sale. 237,000 km. 4×4 for winter. $4k
———-
Nissan X-Trail.
From an era when they still build SUVs for utility.
Not for looks.

#115 Peter in Toronto on 03.20.22 at 10:51 pm

RE: #104 Michael in-north-york

The only person I can see who is actively working to globalize the conflict, draw in foreign powers, prolong the suffering of his own civilian population is that PUPPET Zelensky, who has now fled to Poland.

I propose, that Canada as a NATO member, sanction a drone strike against this dangerous lunatic. That or wait just another few days before one of the AZOV skinheads from his security circle assassinates him.

Our very own Russian troll. Don’t feed him. – Garth

#116 Logic and Reason on 03.20.22 at 10:57 pm

#108 millmech

It’s Ukraine (not the Ukraine) that’s like saying the Canada.

#117 Huh? on 03.20.22 at 11:00 pm

#104 Michael in-north-york on 03.20.22 at 9:56 pm

——————————————

Dude every time that you post, you suck out whatever little intelligence found in this comments section. You seem to be totally stoked into starting a 3rd world war and have a lot of simple solutions for highly volatile and complicated issues.

I suggest you take the next flight to Kiev and grab one of Zelensky’s cardboard rifles. You’d make a good shock troop.

#118 Peter in Toronto on 03.20.22 at 11:03 pm

Very mature Garth. I’ve been commenting on your blog for years.

#119 Squire on 03.20.22 at 11:03 pm

#108 millmech on 03.20.22 at 10:06 pm
————————————————
Nobody know exactly how this will play out. Most refugees want to return home but that isn’t always possible. Wouldn’t you want help too if you were in the same situation. I’m pretty sure they appreciate any help at all. This situation isn’t good for anyone, not even Russia. They just don’t really know it yet due to the fog of ward. Trust me though, they will be feeling this for years to come. Maybe that’s enough to oust the psychopath.

#120 Sask to AB on 03.20.22 at 11:06 pm

We like our Dodge grand caravan.
Its very roomy and reliable.

F59AB

#121 Ponzius Pilatus on 03.20.22 at 11:17 pm

116 Logic and Reason on 03.20.22 at 10:57 pm
#108 millmech

It’s Ukraine (not the Ukraine) that’s like saying the Canada.
——————-
Haha.
Where’s the logic and reason in your statement?
Failed Philosophy 101, I suppose.

#122 Philco on 03.20.22 at 11:28 pm

#25 Søren Angst on 03.20.22 at 2:22 pm
====================
Go away ya weirdo.
Get a Falmart greater job you will be more effective there.

#26 willworkforpickles on 03.20.22 at 2:23 pm
———————————————–
Pickles stop being a know it all. You and I don’t know anything. They the govs been kicking the can down the road for decades. (see bonds 30 years) The more you yap the more you prove you know nothing.
I know a little. My shits worth in the 7 digits. NO DEBT. LARGE cash flow. We could have a deflationary blow out at some point. Boo Hoo Your yapping cant stop or predict that. LOL

#123 Michael in-north-york on 03.20.22 at 11:47 pm

#117 Huh? on 03.20.22 at 11:00 pm

#104 Michael in-north-york on 03.20.22 at 9:56 pm

——————————————

Dude every time that you post, you suck out whatever little intelligence found in this comments section. You seem to be totally stoked into starting a 3rd world war and have a lot of simple solutions for highly volatile and complicated issues.

I suggest you take the next flight to Kiev and grab one of Zelensky’s cardboard rifles. You’d make a good shock troop.
===

Your great intelligence shows in your screen name. You can’t even come up with more than one sillable.

I suggest you take the next flight to Moscow and join the Putin’s army. They are running out of cannon fodder, and will make a good use of you. Oops, no flights there any more. I don’t care, it’s your problem how to get there.

#124 PeterfromCalgary on 03.20.22 at 11:55 pm

Ukraine and Russia make up almost 1/3 of global wheat exports. People starving is never good for the world. We may have to make a deal with the devil (Putin).

#125 Philco on 03.21.22 at 12:03 am

DELETED

#126 Ustabe on 03.21.22 at 12:18 am

#96 Coastal gal on 03.20.22 at 9:03 pm

#93 Flop
If you are on Vancouver Island I have a 2006 Nissan X- trail for sale. 237,000 km. 4×4 for winter. $4k

X Trails are going for $2,500 to $3,000 at auction. So 4 grand is a reasonable ask.

Mine (2005) is well over 300K and I’m willing to put money into it to keep it going. eBay is great for parts. Needed a $2,200 dealer part, over $1,000 from the wreckers….$250.00 US off eBay. Free delivery.

If yours is green I’ll buy it. I’ve already got one that isn’t green, no need for another that isn’t green.

#127 sierts on 03.21.22 at 12:55 am

#98 Peter in Toronto on 03.20.22 at 9:27 pm

” Are there any economic models or portfolios that have factored in the very real possibility of nuclear combat? …
What’s a good investment strategy that accounts for this? ”

————

Buying a farm or ranch somewhere in the southern hemisphere.
( and living there already, when “they” push the buttons)

p.s.: And be prepared to live the rest of your life on a lower level of civilisation.

Greeting from southamerica

#128 Great Bear on 03.21.22 at 1:38 am

DELETED

#129 Faron on 03.21.22 at 1:58 am

#112 Yukon Elvis on 03.20.22 at 10:32 pm

Cool, I’ll pass it on.

Now, if you’ll tell me where the “friendly, if you know what I mean” ladies in SE Asia are we will have tapped all of your useful beta.
.cheers.

#130 under the radar on 03.21.22 at 5:53 am

Those who did it to themselves by buying too much house and decided to have it all with borrowed money do not garner sympathy from me. Greed is the evil twin of jealousy.

#131 BillyBob on 03.21.22 at 6:10 am

#29 G on 03.20.22 at 2:34 pm
I can’t begin to imagine how ‘hard’ (an understatement) it would be to be a refugees for any reason.

Being forced to leave your country, your home, your job, your family, some you might have seen killed OMG.

Need to learn a new language, new customs, find any type of work to be able to buy food and stuff…
And if you have children …

==============================================

So Ms. BB’s employer needed a new evening receptionist in their office here in Prague. The firm (parent company is American, actually) has been very active in assisting Ukrainian refugees. So they’ve just hired a Ukrainian woman for the position and she starts today.

She fled Kyiv with her young daughter when the war started. She’s being housed in a suburb under a Czech government assistance program. One of nearly 250,000 who have arrived.

Long, long ago (like, three weeks ago) she was an English teacher.

Three + weeks later she lives in a different country and has a job already. No idea if she’ll see her home or family again ever. Not a complaint, just went straight to work.

Good luck defeating people like this.

#132 Summertime on 03.21.22 at 6:38 am

#26 willworkforpickles on 03.20.22 at 2:23 pm

Good post, but don’t expect much understanding or appreciation considering the average Joe’s intelligence.

What the brainwashed audience cares about is their perceived wealth and ‘gains’ as to confirm it’s false sense of superiority.

So we will keep talking about ‘gains’ that when considering real inflation is actually steep losses.

Food increased by 30 % yearly, similar number for housing and energy and yet overall ‘reported inflation’ is 5.9 %?

Excuse me.

And rates at 0.5%, with max possible top/ceiling of 1.5 – 2 % and only temporary.

CPP increased at 2.7 %.
In real terms/purchasing power it looks like decrease of 15 %+

#133 Huh? on 03.21.22 at 6:48 am

123 Michael in-north-york on 03.20.22 at 11:47 pm
#117 Huh? on 03.20.22 at 11:00 pm

#104 Michael in-north-york on 03.20.22 at 9:56 pm

——————————————

Dude every time that you post, you suck out whatever little intelligence found in this comments section. You seem to be totally stoked into starting a 3rd world war and have a lot of simple solutions for highly volatile and complicated issues.

I suggest you take the next flight to Kiev and grab one of Zelensky’s cardboard rifles. You’d make a good shock troop.
===

Your great intelligence shows in your screen name. You can’t even come up with more than one sillable.

I suggest you take the next flight to Moscow and join the Putin’s army. They are running out of cannon fodder, and will make a good use of you. Oops, no flights there any more. I don’t care, it’s your problem how to get there.

———————————

Do us all a favor, move further north, a lot further north. We’ll let you know when it’s far enough. You are dangerously ignorant and a threat to yourself and to your loved ones. Please try and think before you type or say anything from now on. I know it’s painful Dork in North York, but please try.

#134 Summertime on 03.21.22 at 6:56 am

Worth reading this phantasy, presented as facts:

https://www.canada.ca/en/services/benefits/publicpensions/cpp/old-age-security/cpp-price.html


Statistics Canada is currently using 2002 as the base year. In 2002, the CPI was equal to 100. This means that the basket of goods in 2002 cost Canadians $100.00. The CPI in January 2021 was measured at 138.2, meaning that the same basket of goods that cost $100.00 in 2002 cost $138.20 in January 2021.

It seem to me that is the inflation from the last 2 years alone, not the last 2 decades.

I would accept it as a poor attempt for a joke, expect that the people’s benefits are based on that ‘indexing’ that makes it rather tragic, sad and pathetic.

#135 Huh? on 03.21.22 at 7:05 am

#131 BillyBob on 03.21.22 at 6:10 am
Good luck defeating people like this.

——————————

I’m confused, defeating her at what? She fled her war torn nation (who can blame her), and started a life elsewhere. Like billions of other emigrants have done for thousands of years, regardless of what the situation was in their homeland. I guess my Sicilian grandfather was superhuman too.

#136 Gravy Train on 03.21.22 at 7:41 am

“For all the tolerance and enlightenment that modern society claims, Americans are losing hold of a fundamental right as citizens of a free country: the right to speak their minds and voice their opinions in public without fear of being shamed or shunned. How has this happened? In large part, it’s because the political left and the right are caught in a destructive loop of condemnation and recrimination around cancel culture.”
New York Times Editorial Board

#137 willworkforpickles on 03.21.22 at 8:29 am

#122 Philco

“The more you yap the more you prove you know nothing.”
……………………………………………………………………………………………………….

I’ve explained a number of times how I come to the conclusions I do. You do none of what I do. You don’t even comprehend what I’ve said or you would have caught on by now. As I said a few days back “Those who don’t do the research don’t see it because they don’t do the research.”

#138 Prince Polo on 03.21.22 at 8:37 am

Retirement income comes from three sources: Social Security, your assets, and human capital. Assets get all the attention, but the other two are equally, if not more important.

Source: https://allisonschrager.substack.com/p/managing-uncertainty?s=r

#139 Bdwy on 03.21.22 at 8:41 am

Boaters fishers and sailers

Any opinions on this bad boy.
https://vancouver.craigslist.org/van/boa/d/vancouver-36-hunter-legend-sailboat/7460767748.html

Looks well updated

It would be a “test” boat to see if we like crusing enough to want to do the carribean

#140 RichardTO on 03.21.22 at 8:43 am

#123 Michael in-north-york

WHY haven’t you answered Zelensky call to arms?
What’s stopping you? Is it funding? If you need money, I’d be happy to GivenSendGo some money your way.
Or are you a coward or lazy?

#141 Summertime on 03.21.22 at 8:55 am

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/03/18/st-louis-feds-bullard-says-the-central-bank-should-raise-rates-above-3percent-this-year.html

FEDERAL RESERVE
St. Louis Fed’s Bullard says the central bank should raise rates above 3% this year

Delusional Lagarde refuses to acknowledge stagflation:

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-03-21/ecb-s-lagarde-doesn-t-see-elements-of-stagflation-for-now

#142 Sail Away on 03.21.22 at 9:44 am

#139 Bdwy on 03.21.22 at 8:41 am

Re: Hunter 36

It looks like $45k of upgrade and refit alone in the last 3 years… Fairly light coastal cruiser construction boat maybe fine for that area. I’d personally not choose that make/model for ocean passages.

If you haven’t owned a large-ish sailboat, expect it will be as needy, time-consuming and worry-inducing as a toddler. A toddler in Mazatlan, in this case.

#143 IHCTD9 on 03.21.22 at 9:44 am

#82 Quintilian on 03.20.22 at 7:40 pm
#58 IHCTD9 on 03.20.22 at 5:14 pm

“Most Canucks don’t have the jingle mail option. Full recourse mortgages baby…”

Excuse my French IH.

But most Canucks would not make use of “jingle mail” option, even if it were available.

No matter how bad it will get, most will think the next spring market will bring prices back to pre-crash.
It is now imprinted in the DNA. They don’t realize that in historical terms, the last few decades have been an aberration.

Just a Central Banker’s Frankensteinian experiment with freakish longevity.
_____

I tend to think a very high level of emotion (fear/greed) got us to these 2022 prices. It may not take much to turn fear of missing out into fear of getting creamed. Lots of recent new LL’s are negative cashflow banking on equity gains. Specuvestors only need appreciation to flatten out and they’ll be burning cash the next day. A rush to the exits with the kind of RE bloat we have right now would be a disaster for everyone involved. Think of all those amateur LL’s with 2-3 rental places levered to the gills.

Could be some interesting times ahead.

#144 Flop… on 03.21.22 at 9:53 am

#126 Ustabe on 03.21.22 at 12:18 am
#96 Coastal gal on 03.20.22 at 9:03 pm

#93 Flop
If you are on Vancouver Island I have a 2006 Nissan X- trail for sale. 237,000 km. 4×4 for winter. $4k

X Trails are going for $2,500 to $3,000 at auction. So 4 grand is a reasonable ask.

Mine (2005) is well over 300K and I’m willing to put money into it to keep it going. eBay is great for parts. Needed a $2,200 dealer part, over $1,000 from the wreckers….$250.00 US off eBay. Free delivery.

If yours is green I’ll buy it. I’ve already got one that isn’t green, no need for another that isn’t green.

/////////////////////

Hey, this guy is trying to steal my car from out underneath me.

This is probably the type of car I should be buying for reliability, test drove a Rav 4and felt like a XXXL Sumo wrestler trying to fit into an extra small pair of Speedo’s.

I guess after driving an oversized vehicle the last 15 years or so everything feeling claustrophobic is to be expected.

Didn’t expect anyone to offer up their car for sale was more just looking at suggestions for mid size suv.

Nah, Coastal Girl, if it’s green sell it to Ustabe, if it’s not green, then there’s always $4 spray cans at Dollarama…

M47BC

#145 Yukon Elvis on 03.21.22 at 10:06 am

#129 Faron on 03.21.22 at 1:58 am
#112 Yukon Elvis on 03.20.22 at 10:32 pm

Cool, I’ll pass it on.

Now, if you’ll tell me where the “friendly, if you know what I mean” ladies in SE Asia are we will have tapped all of your useful beta.
.cheers.
++++++++++++++
You could look it up in my dossier. You know you put in there somewhere.

#146 crowdedelevatorfartz on 03.21.22 at 10:15 am

@#136 Gravy Trian.

” In large part, it’s because the political left and the right are caught in a destructive loop of condemnation and recrimination around cancel culture.”
— New York Times Editorial Board”

+++

Yep.

The silent middle class are getting fed up with all the politically correct , woke, bs being used as a bludgeon against free speech and honest opinion…

And as the economy grinds to a halt and people have to work more and more for less and less, the anger will grow….

#147 willworkforpickles on 03.21.22 at 10:16 am

#132 Summertime

“What the brainwashed audience cares about is their perceived wealth and ‘gains’ as to confirm it’s false sense of superiority.”

…………………………………………………………………………………………………

Selective attention to smooth talk that suits them while filtering out real developments that could diminish their very status and standing gives them over to the mindset of puppets on a string .

Many won’t be equipped or prepared to protect their perceived wealth and status when the debt bubble bursts and the economy and society starts coming apart.

#148 Sail Away on 03.21.22 at 10:19 am

#135 Huh? on 03.21.22 at 7:05 am
#131 BillyBob on 03.21.22 at 6:10 am

Good luck defeating people like this.

———

I’m confused, defeating her at what? She fled her war torn nation (who can blame her), and started a life elsewhere. Like billions of other emigrants have done for thousands of years, regardless of what the situation was in their homeland. I guess my Sicilian grandfather was superhuman too.

———

Resilient, resourceful and pragmatic people, yes. Everybody alive is descended from successful people. The failures disappear without thriving.

So it is indeed quite likely your grandfather was cut from the same cloth, which is profoundly human.

#149 The Soo? on 03.21.22 at 10:23 am

#116 Logic and Reason on 03.20.22 at 10:57 pm
#108 millmech

It’s Ukraine (not the Ukraine) that’s like saying the Canada.

==================
Having been raised in Sault Ste. Marie ON, I’ve never understood why everyone calls it “the Soo” either.

#150 crowdedelevatorfartz on 03.21.22 at 10:25 am

@#76 Floppie
“I kept waiting to see the sentence where they tell us the best thing for the planet is to all eat bugs,”

====
I guess it’s only fair.
The bugs eventually eat us.

#151 Michael in-north-york on 03.21.22 at 10:44 am

#140 RichardTO on 03.21.22 at 8:43 am

#123 Michael in-north-york

WHY haven’t you answered Zelensky call to arms?
What’s stopping you? Is it funding? If you need money, I’d be happy to GivenSendGo some money your way.
Or are you a coward or lazy?
===

If you are itching to join the fight, then go and join. I am not holding you here. Don’t be a coward and don’t be lazy.

If you have some money to donate, then stop yapping and help the refugees. Not necessarily Ukrainian refugees, if you dislike those for some reason. There are many other good causes to donate to.

#152 Shawn on 03.21.22 at 10:52 am

Which Canadians Added to Savings?

Canadians accumulated $184 billion in gross excess savings in the first 12 months of the pandemic, with the savings rate touching 27% while the unemployment rate hit 14%. The money did not fall out of the sky. – Garth

*****************************

Agreed. For sure, massive CERB payments and even more massive payments to businesses must have found their way into savings. I recall corporate cash holdings were also up massively.

In fact if the government issues cheques to people and businesses it pretty well has to STAY in bank accounts. Money “spent” or even invested merely moves from one bank account to another. Often from a personal bank account to a corporate bank account. But almost always to some bank account (aka savings)

Of course there is nothing typical about an “average” savings rate.

Much of the population (80%?) spends every dollar they get. The Savings accumulates in the bank accounts of the 20% or whatever.

Some of this $184 billion was created by mortgage lending and landed in the bank accounts of those who sold homes.

#153 Michael in-north-york on 03.21.22 at 10:53 am

#133 Huh? on 03.21.22 at 6:48 am

Do us all a favor, move further north, a lot further north. We’ll let you know when it’s far enough. You are dangerously ignorant and a threat to yourself and to your loved ones. Please try and think before you type or say anything from now on. I know it’s painful Dork in North York, but please try.
===

Well I will not move anywhere, what are you going to do about that? You are helpless, deal with it.

At least you confirmed that thinking is painful for you, Dork. That’s a good sign, healing starts with recognizing the problem. Perhaps you are not utterly hopeless, keep trying.

#154 Shawn on 03.21.22 at 10:54 am

Helicopter Money?

The money did not fall out of the sky. – Garth

*************************
True, the government issued cheques (and direct deposits) as opposed to the fabled idea of dropping it from helicopters. Possibly amounts to the same thing?

#155 Ponzius Pilatus on 03.21.22 at 10:56 am

135 Huh? on 03.21.22 at 7:05 am
#131 BillyBob on 03.21.22 at 6:10 am
Good luck defeating people like this.

——————————

I’m confused, defeating her at what? She fled her war torn nation (who can blame her), and started a life elsewhere. Like billions of other emigrants have done for thousands of years, regardless of what the situation was in their homeland. I guess my Sicilian grandfather was superhuman too.
—————-
Agree.
But the lazy bum Billy Bob hiding out could take a few lessons from her.

#156 Ponzius Pilatus on 03.21.22 at 11:03 am

#146 crowdedelevatorfartz on 03.21.22 at 10:15 am
@#136 Gravy Trian.

” In large part, it’s because the political left and the right are caught in a destructive loop of condemnation and recrimination around cancel culture.”
— New York Times Editorial Board”

+++

Yep.

The silent middle class are getting fed up with all the politically correct , woke, bs being used as a bludgeon against free speech and honest opinion…

And as the economy grinds to a halt and people have to work more and more for less and less, the anger will grow….
———————-
Pal,
You gotta stop making predictions.
Your track record is dismal.
Is gas at 3 bucks yet?

#157 yvr_lurker on 03.21.22 at 11:04 am

Indeed many families who still retained employment during the lockdowns were able to save oodles of $$$ as consumption was decreased. However, your sentence that conflates Gov’t spending with individual savings

“During Covid the T2 gang spent their buns off, resulting in a doubling of the national debt, the biggest annual deficits in history and billions accumulating in personal bank accounts, much of which was unleashed on real estate.”

has the implication that it is the Gov’t excessive spending that bloated the bank accounts of people.
I believe you know exactly why you constructed this sentence this way.

People who received COVID $$$ who lost their jobs are not the ones buying real estate now from the generosity of the Gov’t.

Not exactly so. Every family with a kid got extra bucks. Businesses had wages replaced, along with rent abatements and substantial grants to borrowers. It was not all about CERB (which was apparently quite abased). – Garth

#158 [email protected] on 03.21.22 at 11:47 am

#139 Bdwy on 03.21.22 at 8:41 am

My impression of Hunters is that they are the RVs of the sailing world. Built for comfort and looks more than sturdiness or reliability. The ad shows zero photos of the topsides and the rig which is something I never understand. If the boat is awkwardly rigged, who cares how comfortable the cabin is?

More importantly, look at the stability metrics here:

https://sailboatdata.com/sailboat/hunter-36-legend

This boat screens in as a light coastal cruiser (suitable for the Salish Sea and Inside Passage).

That said, a friend at my yacht club here in Victoria has done numerous transpacs in an Olson 30 which is very light. Read about Webb Chiles who has done much craziness in a Moore 24 and smaller craft. Another light boat. Generally speaking, the boat will handle more than the crew will.

#159 Sail Away on 03.21.22 at 12:07 pm

#149 The Soo? on 03.21.22 at 10:23 am

Having been raised in Sault Ste. Marie ON, I’ve never understood why everyone calls it “the Soo” either.

——–

Yeah, it’s a mystery. I call it ‘The Salt’.

#160 Faron on 03.21.22 at 12:14 pm

Ha. Damn auto fill.

Welp, this should be interesting unless Garth is merciful enough to edit. Expecting Czech news subscriptions to flood in. LOL.

#161 crowdedelevatorfartz on 03.21.22 at 12:16 pm

@#156 Ponzies pal’s predictions.

Pal,
You gotta stop making predictions.
Your track record is dismal.
Is gas at 3 bucks yet?”

+++
Poor ponzie’s memory is fading fast.
Is it Summer yet?

Pugnacious Ponzie….. the positive light in our dreary lives.

#162 Don't fight the Fed on 03.21.22 at 12:36 pm

Looks like they are getting the Bazooka out…

You want a real sailboat? Anything from Maine…Morris, Hinckley
Sabre to a lesser extent. PACIFIC seacraft of course.

#163 Sail Away on 03.21.22 at 12:46 pm

#10 Faron on 03.20.22 at 12:55 pm
#91 Sail Away on 03.20.22 at 11:05 am

Hey, keep us posted. Steerage is dying to know about the riveting details of your every movement on this, your personal blog.

——-

Sure. This morning’s 4am excursion was ‘The Michigan’, one of my favourite workouts:

http://runners-resource.com/the-michigan-workout/

Takes around 2 hours. I’m whipped. Might sleep in until 4:30 tomorrow.

#164 mark on 03.21.22 at 1:07 pm

with all due respect, Garth, we’ve been hearing the same song in mainstream media for years – canadians are over-leveraged, living pay check to pay check, can’t withstand any increase to their monthly expenses, blah blah. play the same tune long enough and everyone stops listening.

When 2% mortgages become 5% loans you might understand. – Garth

#165 Russ on 03.21.22 at 1:07 pm

Bdwy on 03.21.22 at 8:41 am

Boaters fishers and sailers

Any opinions on this bad boy.
https://vancouver.craigslist.org/van/boa/d/vancouver-36-hunter-legend-sailboat/7460767748.html

Looks well updated

It would be a “test” boat to see if we like crusing enough to want to do the carribean
============================

Hi Bdwy,

In addition to the other fine comments, I will add that the boat looks good for coastal cruising. Well kitted out, etc.

But I expect some complaining about offshore suitability. Lack of decent ventilation and sea berths to be clear. That athwart-ship aft berth is even unusable in a rolling anchorage.
A tropical rainshower will make that bunk like a wet sauna.

And, unless things have changed, it is illegal to by a foreign flagged vessel in Mexico unless you pay the Mexican duty.

Cheers, R

#166 James on 03.21.22 at 1:09 pm

#161 crowdedelevatorfartz on 03.21.22 at 12:16 pm

@#156 Ponzies pal’s predictions.

Pal,
You gotta stop making predictions.
Your track record is dismal.
Is gas at 3 bucks yet?”

+++
Poor ponzie’s memory is fading fast.
Is it Summer yet?

Pugnacious Ponzie….. the positive light in our dreary lives.
___________________________________________
I think I will go outside at lunch and just let my SUV idle.
I love watching my money burn up literally. At 3 buck a liter I may actually consider buying a smaller car.
Nah…………… YOLO.

#167 Philco on 03.21.22 at 1:25 pm

Ok Hugs to EVERYONE today.
Hearts out to the China Eastern airlines and the poor folk on the 737/800 that crashed. We just got off one.

#168 Philco on 03.21.22 at 1:46 pm

#137 willworkforpickles on 03.21.22 at 8:29 am
========================
Pickels Im to busy cutting fire wood.
You seem to have time, get a job at your local collage. Make me proud.
I cant believe the time peeps spend here Daily.

#169 yvr_lurker on 03.21.22 at 5:46 pm

Every family with a kid got extra bucks.
——————-
Nope… I’ve got a kid and we all got zero from the Gov’t. Moreover, he worked the entire two summers tutoring and gardening and did not get a cent from the Gov’t. Not complaining, as we were very fortunate to keep working and saved a ton. The only spike was property taxes zooming forward with our luney-tune YVR city council and mayor who I am working hard in our neighborhood not to get re-elected in October. To think that I voted for him and all the Greens on council four years ago makes me shudder. I have been triple-vaxed from all of them at this stage.

The reference was to the Canada Child Benefit. – Garth