The plan

Where we are: Hot economy, hot inflation, rates rising, pandemic ending. War in Ukraine, historic sanctions, commodity price inflation, uncertainty.

Time to be bold, or shrink and hide?

Humans are ruled more by fear than desire. Recency bias kicks in. We’re reluctant to invest until things feel good again – which is almost always after they have risen. We want what goes up and shun what’s going down. Multiple bids for above-asking offers for real estate at its most inflated point ever, but a dearth of buyers when the market turns, DOMs grow and prices are reduced. Buy high, sell low. Unload into a storm. Wait for the sun to get back in.

It never fails. And it’s happening again as people let Vlad Putin paralyze them.

Christopher knows how it feels. This is his story and conundrum…

“Love the blog,” he says, in a an opening MSU, “it’s changed my outlook on retirement planning, and therefore, my life. However. re: your latest advice of: “do nothing”… does mean don’t invest currently as well?”

To recap (the blog said) crises, disasters, catastrophes and never-before-experienced events come with alarming regularity. Y2K. Dot-com. Nine Eleven. Debt ceiling debacle. Credit crisis. Covid. Ukraine. Next? Who knows? But we’ll get through it.

The best possible advice is to invest when you have money, then leave it invested. Don’t try to time things by avoiding risk since you’ll also miss gains. And since markets have always risen over time, bopping in and out only hurts yourself while escaping nothing. This includes now.

“Here’s the background,” says Chris:

Bought a pre-constructed house up in Wasaga in 2019. Pandemic hit. Saw a golden opp. Sold our Danforth/TO house a few months ago when new house was ready. Moved and combined proceeds into our B&D portfolios.

Now:
$1.4M invested (B&D); $220K mortgage @ 2.9%; I’m 50, wife is 40.; About to come into some money: $500K

Question is, do we:
1) Do nothing and hold back with money sitting somewhere (HISA) waiting for Russia to pan out?
2) Pay off mortgage and invest rest into B&D ($0 mortgage and $1.7M invested)?
3) Invest all & keep mortgage ($220K mort & $1.9M invested)?
4) Or something else?

Christopher tells me he’s drawn to option 2, as it removes some overhead – important since he wants to atop working at age 50, “looking to experiment with a retirement plan from our B&D in real practice.”

But that’s the probably the wrong door to open. Paying off a mortgage which costs half the inflation rate when the funds can be invested for a significantly better return is an emotional choice. Not a logical one. As CBs jack up the cost of money, inflation won’t disappear anytime soon, and a sub-3% mortgage will look increasingly attractive. Besides, a cheap home loan rate means most of the monthly goes to trashing principal. So just stay the course, then use investment portfolio gains to pay down the mortgage when it comes up for renewal.

As for investing?

Well, we’ve covered this ground a few times since the Ruskies invaded Zelenskyland. The outcome is unknown, but all wars (like pandemics) end. Given the global outrage at Putin, it’s unlikely sanctions will be rolled back quickly or completely, even with a ceasefire. Commodity prices will likely stay elevated. So will inflation. Ditto for interest rates. And once the shooting stops in Ukraine – or a resolution is hinted at – markets will probably explode higher and the post-pandemic reopening trade resume.

In short, if you sit on the sidelines, or dollar-cost average, or otherwise diddle until your tummy feels confident, the gains will have eluded you. History shows repeatedly that missing the best days is far more injurious in the long run than avoiding the bad ones. So, Chris, jump in. If you want to retire and live off investment returns you gotta be invested.

So a tad under two million should yield income of about $9,500 per month. This amount is not considered taxable income, of course, and the taxes you pay will be based only on actual dividends, interest or capital gains received. This is why being wealthy confers benefits. So utilize those TFSAs, income split with your squeeze and live the dream in Wasaga while some young schmuck struggles to afford your house on the Danforth.

Life’s not fair. But what the hell.

About the picture: “Earlier this year our two dogs graced your featured picture,” writes Kathleen, “thus I figured our youngest fur member should also be given the same opportunity.  Buppy is a two year old handsome silver tabby with piercing green eyes and is the boss of the dogs.  We rescued him when he was 5 months and he is a perfect fit to our family (he even loves belly rubs).” 

Have a beast to share with the pack? Send a picture and details to ‘[email protected]’. – Garth

101 comments ↓

#1 Party on Garth on 03.13.22 at 1:45 pm

The borrowing and spending binge by Canadian households, businesses, and governments (all levels) continues unabated.

At the end of December, 2021 the total debt outstanding in Canada (bottom line of the Statistics Canada credit market summary data table) was $10.017 trillion. At the end of December, 2020 the total debt outstanding was $9.392 trillion. In the 1 year period from the end of December, 2020 to the end of December, 2021 it increased by $624.8 billion. This is an increase of 6.6%.

Update on the total (household, business, and all levels of government) debt numbers in Canada

https://owecanada.blogspot.com/2022/03/the-borrowing-and-spending-binge-by.html

#2 Millennial 1%er on 03.13.22 at 2:08 pm

As I stayed logical through market downturns (and stayed invested) over the past 4 years, I realized one thing: the reason I can stay logical and stay the course is because I don’t actually care about money

Seriously, I don’t care. I could lose it all tomorrow. Whatever, I’ve got a good career, and can make it back fast. The only thing I care about is paying taxes, and I’d rather lose money in a market downturn than give up my hard earned money.

More money, less problems

#3 Linda on 03.13.22 at 2:14 pm

Of course ‘Buppy’ is the one in charge:)

I have to say, not sure why dollar cost averaging isn’t a good choice. Not everyone has a lot of money to invest up front. Isn’t it better to have a continuous trickle rather than invest nothing at all? I know DCA doesn’t provide the stellar returns that up front lump sum investing does, but to my way of thinking anything that encourages folks to invest in the first place is worth promoting. Get the investing habit started, then if & when the baby investors have enough $ to do up front lump sum investing (& maybe have a bit more knowledge/confidence) upgrade.

DCA is holding back available cash and investing it according to the calendar. Bad idea. You have a 50% chance of buying less with the same cash. The best time to invest is always the same – whenever you have the funds. – Garth

#4 Tarot Card on 03.13.22 at 2:37 pm

Thanks for the blog Garth
Happy Sunday and grateful to live in Canada
My heart still goes out to the millions in Ukraine.

Today I had a very good read in the British paper called
The Guardian. About how this war happened. it’s called the long read Russias war on Ukraine. The reason I liked the article it gives the long history about Ukraine and Russia and NATO. Enlightening!

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/mar/11/was-it-inevitable-a-short-history-of-russias-war-on-ukraine

#5 Ponzius Pilatus on 03.13.22 at 2:48 pm

#3 Linda on 03.13.22 at 2:14 pm
Of course ‘Buppy’ is the one in charge:)

I have to say, not sure why dollar cost averaging isn’t a good choice. Not everyone has a lot of money to invest up front. Isn’t it better to have a continuous trickle rather than invest nothing at all? I know DCA doesn’t provide the stellar returns that up front lump sum investing does, but to my way of thinking anything that encourages folks to invest in the first place is worth promoting. Get the investing habit started, then if & when the baby investors have enough $ to do up front lump sum investing (& maybe have a bit more knowledge/confidence) upgrade.

DCA is holding back available cash and investing it according to the calendar. Bad idea. You have a 50% chance of buying less with the same cash. The best time to invest is always the same – whenever you have the funds. – Garth
——–_____
As an Accountant, DCA intuitively did not make much sense to me.
And I stayed away from it.
Same for other “gimmicks”.  
I never read the “Wealthy Barber”.
But didn’t the guy get filthy rich by bringing CDA to the financial illiterate masses?

#6 baloney Sandwitch on 03.13.22 at 2:59 pm

Fear rules us more than greed. That is a very important concept. The best investments I have made is when I bought when I was soiling my pants and the worst when I was taking profits and feeling good. (lesson: never sell your best investments, Its the compounding, stupid.)

#7 Laura on 03.13.22 at 3:04 pm

What does it mean that you get 9500 income a month that’s not taxable? I have around 1.5 mil invested and besides dividents there’s no other incomes. Am I missing something?

Nobody pays tax on distributions from a portfolio, other than the withholding on certain registered accounts. It is not equivalent to earned income. Tax is payable according to T5 income for dividends, interest and capital gains. A talented portfolio manager will harvest monthly income in the most tax-efficient manner possible and deposit it in your chequing account. – Garth

#8 bdwy on 03.13.22 at 3:39 pm

#6 baloney Sandwitch on 03.13.22 at 2:59 pm
Fear rules us more than greed. That is a very important concept. The best investments I have made is when I bought when I was soiling my pants and the worst when I was taking profits and feeling good. (lesson: never sell your best investments, Its the compounding, stupid.)

—————
says a guy who never held nortel as it carried the tsx in it’s back pocket for 5 years.

#9 Shawn on 03.13.22 at 3:58 pm

Not all 40% losses are created equal…

#2 Millennial 1%er on 03.13.22 at 2:08 pm said:

As I stayed logical through market downturns (and stayed invested) over the past 4 years, I realized one thing: the reason I can stay logical and stay the course is because I don’t actually care about money

Seriously, I don’t care. I could lose it all tomorrow. Whatever, I’ve got a good career, and can make it back fast.

*************************************
That’s right for young people; A (say) 40% loss on a portfolio could represent less than a year’s wages. Painful but totally recoverable.

Fast forward to a 55 year old with a million dollar portfolio. A 40% loss might be 4 years of gross earnings or at least 2 years typically. With two million it might be 8 years of earnings. It’s a different feeling.

Both the percentage and the quantum of money lost in a downturn or an investment gone sour matter.

But in the end most losses are temporary especially in a B&D portfolio. Large permanent losses are to be avoided.

But the risk tolerance of a millennial should be different than that of a boomer. Millennial can get away with being a bucked-off cowboy and live to ride another day.

#10 Quintilian on 03.13.22 at 4:16 pm

“The best time to invest is always the same – whenever you have the funds. – Garth”

Can’t agree with that. Entry point, as mentioned a billion times, is important.

I am surprise at you Garth, you usually give sound advise, without the syllogisms.

But your statement sounds something the big hair, push up bra lots of costume jewelry clad Realtors would say……:

” the best time to buy real estate is yesterday, buy land they don’t make it anymore etc etc et…..”

Go argue with history. You’ll lose. – Garth

#11 Felix on 03.13.22 at 4:36 pm

Buppy is the boss of the dogs.

That’s also why he has the IQ needed to have “the plan”.

Cats in charge is better for everyone.

#12 Stone on 03.13.22 at 4:43 pm

So a tad under two million should yield income of about $9,500 per month. This amount is not considered taxable income, of course, and the taxes you pay will be based only on actual dividends, interest or capital gains received.

———

Garth, I always thought your 6% withdrawal was for age 65 and plus. Are you saying this is an acceptable withdrawal rate at age 50 that will last to their 90s and potentially beyond? I thought that the biggest threat was running out of money. Is a 6% withdrawal rate what is recommended at any age or only above a certain age?

A well-balanced portfolio should deliver that over many decades (as it has for decades in the past) and preserve the principal. – Garth

#13 Diamond Dog on 03.13.22 at 4:44 pm

Don’t know why Conservatives haven’t thought about m2’s effect on Canada’s money supply and inflation, but if history teaches us anything it’s that Trudeau, through money printing, is the most inflationary PM in history. Where m2 rises, generally so follows inflation:

https://tradingeconomics.com/canada/money-supply-m2

This, of course, is not a compliment. What I will say following this harsh criticism of Trudeau and other governments who like to print money for the wealth effects to win elections with our own borrowed money (like Nixon & Trump):

https://www.longtermtrends.net/m2-money-supply-vs-inflation/

… what I will say, is that if Jean Charest was chosen as the leader of the Conservatives, the Conservatives would win a majority government. Charest would carry Quebec and pick up more seats throughout the rest of Canada. Of course, we would witness the Con party becoming a national party instead of the regional mess they are now and witness the change this ushers in to the Conservative party, but this is progress! It’s necessary!

If Conservatives are smart enough to go for the brass ring, they would pick Charest to lead. Offering further, if Charest led the Conservatives, I would offer my full support not merely because Charest can win a majority, but because he’s a true, proven leader. Charest is a winner and Canada needs wins right now.

#14 Quintilian on 03.13.22 at 4:48 pm

This is how Poloz’s book is described on Amazon:

“Filled with takeaways for employers, investors, and policymakers, as well as families discussing jobs and mortgage renewals around the kitchen table, The Next Age of Uncertainty is an indispensable guide for those navigating the fault lines of the risky world ahead.”

Liner for bird cage I’d say.

#15 Yukon Elvis on 03.13.22 at 4:55 pm

Russia has asked China for military ​equipment to ​support its invasion of Ukraine, ​according to US officials, sparking concern in ​the White House that Beijing ​may undermine western efforts to help Ukrainian forces defend their country.

US officials told the Financial Times that Russia had requested military equipment and other assistance since the start of the invasion. They declined to give details about what Russia had requested.

https://www.ft.com/content/30850470-8c8c-4b53-aa39-01497064a7b7

#16 Apocalypse NOW on 03.13.22 at 4:56 pm

The Ides of March are almost upon us.

Never before has this been so prophetically devastating.

There is little time left.

PREPARE

#17 Yukon Elvis on 03.13.22 at 5:09 pm

The Kyiv Independent
@KyivIndependent
·
30m
⚡️Russian forces completely destroy 7 hospitals, damage additional 104.

Moscow’s troops have also killed 6 medical personnel while severely injuring 12 more since the start of the all-out war, Health Minister Viktor Lyashko said.

#18 Søren Angst on 03.13.22 at 5:11 pm

#14 Yukon Elvis

Ya, that will work out well.

I mean you know, the Russian military have all taken a course in Military Mandarin so knowing what buttons to press will be a breeze.

#19 jess on 03.13.22 at 5:19 pm

greed ….> fear rules to keep it

Switzerland diplomatically rejects Biden’s ‘fiscal paradise’ label

https://www.swissinfo.ch/eng/ubs-reveals–10-million-of-loans-to-sanction-hit-clients/47412092?utm_campaign=teaser-in-channel&utm_medium=display&utm_content=o&utm_source=swissinfoch

https://www.thetradenews.com/the-collapse-of-archegos-capital-management/

https://www.occrp.org/en/the-fincen-files/rinse-profit-repeat-how-a-small-team-of-estonians-turned-a-danish-bank-into-a-laundromat

Inside scandal-rocked Danske Estonia and the shell-company …
https://www.icij.org › investigations › fincen-files › insi…
Sept 21, 2020 — … forms and letterhead for Beta Consult Corp., a company registered in the Marshall Islands, a secrecy haven in the central Pacific Ocea

Canadian entities involved in global laundromat style company
formations
Background
United Kingdom legal entities have long been at the heart of known laundromats. For example, the
Proxy Platform, the Russian Laundromat, the Azerbaijani Laundromat and the Danske Bank scandal
have all had a significant UK legal entity presence. These are primarily Limited Liability and Scottish
Limited Partnerships but, to a lesser degree, private limited companies are also employed.”

Canadian entities involved in global laundromat style …
https://ag-pssg-sharedservices-ex.objectstore.gov.bc.ca › …

#20 Shawn on 03.13.22 at 5:22 pm

Most Money Printing Inflationary Prime Minister?

#13 Diamond Dog on 03.13.22 at 4:44 pm

Don’t know why Conservatives haven’t thought about m2’s effect on Canada’s money supply and inflation, but if history teaches us anything it’s that Trudeau, through money printing, is the most inflationary PM in history. Where m2 rises, generally so follows inflation:

****************************
I think Pierre Trudeau has Justin Beat as far as being an inflationary PM.

Before JustInflation, there was Tru-dough as our dolalr fell.

But this M2 money supply measure goes up with all forms of borrowing right? How much did M2 grow because of government borrowing/ money printing and how much because of personal and business borrowing?

#21 Sail Away on 03.13.22 at 5:31 pm

Yes, investing when money is available is a good basic plan… although not necessarily my plan. When money is always available, more targeted placement is warranted: this might be for private investment, a nice undeveloped RE parcel, a down market, a specific sector for specific reason… or, heck, maybe an expensive piece of tourist art because partner contentment is also a key ingredient.

#22 Grunt on 03.13.22 at 5:38 pm

Does Beijing trust Moscow to payback?

VC industry. Wonderful if the boffins could get quantum computing to work with quantum chemistry & physics.

Then we could harvest new materials from the subatomic. Including energy.

#23 Yukon Elvis on 03.13.22 at 5:42 pm

#18 Søren Angst on 03.13.22 at 5:11 pm
#14 Yukon Elvis

Ya, that will work out well.

I mean you know, the Russian military have all taken a course in Military Mandarin so knowing what buttons to press will be a breeze.
++++++++++
Send bullets and cabbages komrade. With no buttons. It confuses us.

#24 home on 03.13.22 at 5:44 pm

Real Estate Correction happens once every 10-15 years. The last correction happened 2017-2019 when the market tanked by 30%. Next correction will happen after 10+ years.

I know people who have been waiting for a correction since 2010. They are now priced out and during the period, home prices had increased by over 300%.

On the other hand, I know people who bought it in 2017 at the peak and their homes had increased by over 40% in 2021 after declining 30% in 2018-2019.

There is no real estate cycle. – Garth

#25 Søren Angst on 03.13.22 at 5:57 pm

#23 Yukon Elvis

Vlad running out of options I think.

A publicity stunt. You know they are different militaries.

If you believe half of what the Ukrainians are saying, the Russians are suffering heavy losses.

It will be over soon.

Besides, Vlad has 2 of his Top Spies from FSB to blame that he wasn’t informed Ukraine would resist. They are under house arrest.

Past day haven’t seen much of anything from the Kremlin Twitter account and just 1 dispatch from Foreign Ministry account.

Quiet probably means bad for them.

Instagramski off at midnight tonight in all of Russia.

Hoping Mr. Market sees past this and resumes business as usual.

#26 Peter in Toronto on 03.13.22 at 6:02 pm

Zelensky, and Washington D.C. by proxy, are the only parties currently that are obstacles to achieving peace in Ukraine.

Zelensky hides behind 3 million civilian hostages in Kiev, while on constant satellite call with his instructors in D.C. The characterizations in the Lying Press of his heroism are comical. I don’t see anything heroic about this character.

Heroism would be putting his ego aside, ignoring the demands of the US State Department, and doing what’s best for the civilian population that remains – agreeing to an unconditional ceasefire and neutrality.

Neutrality – is that what we call military occupation now? – Garth

#27 Neptunian on 03.13.22 at 6:05 pm

2M yield 9.5k monthly( or yearly)? People on this blog have been taking about a B&D portfolio, is the portfolio publicly available, or just for clients?

#28 Midnight’s on 03.13.22 at 6:20 pm

4 Tarot Card on 03.13.22 at 2:37 pm

What they print in the paper is what they want you to read. Not what you should believe.

#29 HH on 03.13.22 at 6:34 pm

Buppy is one handsome, precious dude. I wonder if he and my Baxter would get along. Baxter’s photo appeared here a few days ago. He thanks Garth for that.

#30 crowdedelevatorfartz on 03.13.22 at 6:39 pm

@#17 Yukon Elvis
“Russian forces completely destroy 7 hospitals, damage additional 104.”

+++

Yep, targeting hospitals for bombing is right up there with most ruthless dictators playbooks.

I hope Putin has prepared for an endlessly expensive, eviscerating, endeavour.

This war will drag on for years.
Bleeding Russia dry of men, material and money.
And it’s right on their border.
Terrorism a daily occurrence in Moscow?
Gonna be hard to stop when the enemy looks, walks and talks like the average Russian.
But I guess most Russians are used to living in a police state with restricted freedoms….so checkpoints every block shouldnt be too disruptive.

#31 Flop… on 03.13.22 at 6:40 pm

Mapped: All the World’s Military Personnel.

https://www.visualcapitalist.com/mapped-all-the-worlds-military-personnel/

Had a look at this article the other day, knew some of the details like Israel and Egypt required citizens to do some form of military service, after living and travelling over that way for a few years.

You kind of notice that sort of thing, when you are in cattle class on a train, and can clearly see tacks because the floor is rotting, then a group of young kids get on board with guns with seemingly no one in charge.

Surprises?

Had no clue at 5 million people, Vietnam has the world’s largest army reserve. Past wars probably all the motivation you need to try avoid it again, you would think, and yet…

My old buddies Canada and Australia get on pretty well, don’t even have a sporting rivalry do they, maybe when someone breaks a fingernail playing Davis Cup tennis, but that ain’t gonna start a war

Canada is listed at 103k active military members Australia at 89k.

I’m willing to accept that Canada would overpower Australia straight-up, but since Australia is listed in the Oceania segment with the help of there old war brothers, the Kiwis, and a few crazy islanders from Papua New Guinea and Fiji, Canada would stand no chance.

I have personal testimony, I’ve known no fear like trying to defend myself against a crazed Fijian chick playing the drums on my head at two o’clock in the morning because she discovered I’d finished the last chocolate biscuit…

M47BC

#32 canuck on 03.13.22 at 6:40 pm

Neutrality – is that what we call military occupation now? – Garth
_____________________________________________

Not that I agree or am happy about it but Russia will get Ukraine back into the fold. Wars are hard to win. Look how Russia failed when they went into Afghanistan. Americans didn’t do any better over there and haven’t been on the winning side of a war since 1945.
What’s different is that these are bordering countries, not separated by hundreds of thousands of Klms and Putin has gone “all in”. Will the west test Putin and risk WW3? Nope. They honestly have no skin in the game. What will America do when this war is over and China takes Taiwan? Nothing.

I do feel for the great people of Ukraine. They have never been truly independent. Their Government has been always owned and manipulated by either Russia or America.

#33 Peter in Toronto on 03.13.22 at 6:50 pm

@Garth
“Neutrality – is that what we call military occupation now? – Garth”

I urge you to review the Minsk Agreements that Ukraine herself signed. They had 8 YEARS to avoid a war. Washington D.C. wasn’t interested in peace.

Now that we’ve been taken to the brink of nuclear war, you and the cat ladies on Twitter are screaming for blood. You do understand that your assets mean nothing when the first nukes take to the air?

#34 pPrasseur on 03.13.22 at 6:51 pm

The outcome is unknown, but all wars (like pandemics) end.

My guess is soon, the Russians will want to get out of this before total disgrace (too late for that) and humiliation (to late for the world but possibly not at home…)

#35 Brian on 03.13.22 at 6:57 pm

#15 Yukon Elvis on 03.13.22 at 4:55 pm
Russia has asked China for military ​equipment to ​support its invasion of Ukraine, ​according to US officials, sparking concern in ​the White House that Beijing ​may undermine western efforts to help Ukrainian forces defend their country.

Chinese embassy says has never heard of Russian requests for help.

https://www.reuters.com/world/chinese-embassy-says-has-never-heard-russian-requests-ukraine-help-2022-03-13/

#36 Michael in-north-york on 03.13.22 at 7:03 pm

Are there any true soldiers left amongst the Russian high-ranking generals?

Arrest Putin, and save the Ukrainian civilians from the murderous attecks. Save your own population from the crippling economic sanctions and a great economic hardship.

#37 NOSTRADAMUS on 03.13.22 at 7:05 pm

A BANKER CAN MAKE A GLASS EYE WATER.
I see numerous opportunities to double down and lose it all. On my tippy toes, I can see valuable employees, who, with their company bankruptcies being sold as slaves. Moving along, speculators have been riding the stock and housing train first class to profit Ville. Before long, there is a strong possibility they will be joining the Hobo’s in the cattle cars. With the escalating withdrawal of liquidity (EASY CASH) you’re at the end of the line, but you can’t get off. Much like a parent, I think the banks are getting fed up with the constant calls from the overindebted for more money. Inquisitive minds may ask, how do I know all this? Like most
participants, I learned about risk off markets and bubble pops the hard way, by falling, down, down into the chasm. There is nothing more humbling than to have a banker come out into the bank foyer , order you to pull your pants down and wail into you with his big black belt for all the world to see. Ouch! I couldn’t sit down for 10 long years. Before too long, the janitor (banker) will be cleaning up after the giant party that ended badly. Believe me, Banker’s can make a glass eye water. Today, I am still piling up my dry powder (inflation be damned) I’d rather lose 10% to inflation than 50% plus to some swift dream seller. As I have said on numerous occasion when the liquidity dries, the game is over. I am on my throne, and I will not step down.

#38 Ponzius Pilatus on 03.13.22 at 7:05 pm

#17 Yukon Elvis on 03.13.22 at 5:09 pm
The Kyiv Independent
@KyivIndependent
·
30m
Russian forces completely destroy 7 hospitals, damage additional 104.

Moscow’s troops have also killed 6 medical personnel while severely injuring 12 more since the start of the all-out war, Health Minister Viktor Lyashko said.
————–
Thanks Yukon Elvis,
But some of us get our information from many sources.
They don’t always chive with your’s.

#39 Nonplused on 03.13.22 at 7:06 pm

#17 Yukon Elvis on 03.13.22 at 5:09 pm
The Kyiv Independent
@KyivIndependent
·
30m
⚡️Russian forces completely destroy 7 hospitals, damage additional 104.

———————————-

Did you also fall for the “Snake Island”, “Ghost of Kiev”, “Beauty pageant warrior”, and “machine gun grannies” stories as well?

Don’t believe anything coming from either side in this war. The propaganda is off the charts. The fact is we don’t have any idea what is going on over there except the satellite photos.

Except the “biolabs” story. We can probably believe at least part of that one since Victoria Nuland more or less confirmed it under oath to the senate.

#40 Dr V on 03.13.22 at 7:07 pm

5 Ponz – the reality for many is that DCA is the only option. For these people, it is not a scheme, just the result of a regular “pay yourself first” savings plan. No different than contributing regularly to your pension plan. When you do come into larger sums of money, then you can certainly do a lump sum.

Even for the business owner, who may pay themselves a modest wage, it is a reasonable approach. Extra cash can be kept in the business, and, if not needed, a year end RRSP contribution can be done.

#41 Sail Away on 03.13.22 at 7:20 pm

#27 Neptunian on 03.13.22 at 6:05 pm

2M yield 9.5k monthly( or yearly)? People on this blog have been taking about a B&D portfolio, is the portfolio publicly available, or just for clients?

———

Haha, monthly. If yearly, that would be the suckiest portfolio around.

Balanced and Diversified (B&D) is a concept rather than a hard allocation. I doubt Garth would share specific holdings since no good deed goes unpunished. That said, if you hang around here for a while, or browse the comment archives, you’ll find plenty of blogdog ports.

#42 Ponzius Pilatus on 03.13.22 at 7:35 pm

#40 Dr V on 03.13.22 at 7:07 pm
5 Ponz – the reality for many is that DCA is the only option. For these people, it is not a scheme, just the result of a regular “pay yourself first” savings plan. No different than contributing regularly to your pension plan. When you do come into larger sums of money, then you can certainly do a lump sum.

Even for the business owner, who may pay themselves a modest wage, it is a reasonable approach. Extra cash can be kept in the business, and, if not needed, a year end RRSP contribution can be done.
————-
To each his own, I guess.
“Pay yourself first” has a nice ring to it, I have to admit.
Makes you feel like you’re in control.
But appreciate your comment.

#43 Ponzius Pilatus on 03.13.22 at 7:45 pm

It used to be “You are what you eat”.
No it’s “You are what you read”

#44 AM in MN on 03.13.22 at 8:04 pm

I still think most people haven’t factored in the long term inflation and supply issues around the energy shortages, of which the war made worse.

Not good for social stability, but good for the virtue signaling left who values the destruction of production but not consumption.

This includes the left coast, who fuels up mostly with imported gasoline from Bellingham, and it appears, Russia. Feels good to stick to Alberta & SK doesn’t it!

https://www.reuters.com/world/russian-owned-scf-oil-tankers-rerouting-canadian-destinations-2022-03-03/

#45 yvr_lurker on 03.13.22 at 8:16 pm

When one can get 9.5K monthly sans tax from a 2M portfolio with optimized tax strategy that is buried in the annals of the tax code (that fee-based advisors have on their fingertips), it sure beats getting hammered by the 54% marginal on high income earners. Much harder to climb up the ladder with the 54% than to stay high on the ladder once one gets there by whatever means (inheritance, lifetime of work etc..). The finance minister should know where an optimal harvest might be had (hint: it ain’t the 54% marginal crowd).

Now that I am 85% of the way to this threshold, I am sure the rules will have changed by the time I get there…

#46 AM in MN on 03.13.22 at 8:37 pm

#13 Diamond Dog on 03.13.22 at 4:44 pm
Don’t know why Conservatives haven’t thought about m2’s effect on Canada’s money supply and inflation, but if history teaches us anything it’s that Trudeau, through money printing, is the most inflationary PM in history. Where m2 rises, generally so follows inflation:

https://tradingeconomics.com/canada/money-supply-m2

This, of course, is not a compliment. What I will say following this harsh criticism of Trudeau and other governments who like to print money for the wealth effects to win elections with our own borrowed money (like Nixon & Trump):

https://www.longtermtrends.net/m2-money-supply-vs-inflation/

… what I will say, is that if Jean Charest was chosen as the leader of the Conservatives, the Conservatives would win a majority government.

———————————————————–

I guess you hadn’t watched any of Poilievre’s grilling of the mathematically challenged Finance Minister in the House?

There is no more important issue as I see it to get the money printing under control. I see Poilievre as one of the few that seems to recognize that and make it an issue. Discussions on monetary policy don’t usually fill the grandstands, but the real world effect of inflation eventually comes to the forefront, and it isn’t going to abate before the next election.

Not sure how you think an establishment has-been like Charest would change anything.

All the same monopolies that run Canada as a mediocre economy would stay in charge. The virtue signaling left would continue to stifle any economic development in the resources that the world needs.

The public sector strikes are coming. The only way to pay them off to compensate for inflation is through more money printing (absent real economic growth).

Money printing makes winners (asset owners) and losers (paycheck workers), and pits them against each other. Covid sped up an already growing divide. If you think keeping on doing the same will bring peace and harmony, by all means vote for Charest (or the Liberals, same thing).

#47 Shawn on 03.13.22 at 8:42 pm

Getting to $2 million? Bad news

#45 yvr_lurker on 03.13.22 at 8:16 pm
When one can get 9.5K monthly sans tax from a 2M portfolio with optimized tax strategy that is buried in the annals of the tax code (that fee-based advisors have on their fingertips), it sure beats getting hammered by the 54% marginal on high income earners. Much harder to climb up the ladder with the 54% than to stay high on the ladder once one gets there by whatever means (inheritance, lifetime of work etc..). The finance minister should know where an optimal harvest might be had (hint: it ain’t the 54% marginal crowd).

Now that I am 85% of the way to this threshold, I am sure the rules will have changed by the time I get there…

**************************************
Unfortunately, $10 million is the new $2 million

Keep on truckin’

#48 Yukon Elvis on 03.13.22 at 8:45 pm

#25 Søren Angst on 03.13.22 at 5:57 pm
#23 Yukon Elvis

Vlad running out of options I think.

A publicity stunt. You know they are different militaries.
+++++++++++++++++++++++

China buys certain weapons from Russia, especially advanced fighter aircraft and surface-to-air missile systems, said Taylor Fravel, a political science professor at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology who specializes in Chinese defense.
“As far as I know, China does not sell any weapons systems to Russia,” Fravel said. “In other words, Russia has enabled China’s military modernization but China so far has not contributed much to the development of Russia’s armed forces, apart from the profits of Russian weapons sales, which can be reinvested to improve Russian capabilities.”

https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2022/03/13/russia-china-military-aid/

#49 Rochdale GM on 03.13.22 at 8:54 pm

#27 Neptunian on 3.13.22 at 6:05 pm

Do an advanced search on greaterfool.ca with exact words “safe stuff” and read. Garth usually goes over the more or less B&D once or twice a year.

#50 Satori on 03.13.22 at 9:02 pm

#37 NOSTRADAMUS on 03.13.22 at 7:05 pm

A BANKER CAN MAKE A GLASS EYE WATER
————————————————–
Sigh, ah yes the School of Hard Knocks, best teacher around. Well said N …I hear she is booked up to do future lectures after the BoC interest increases a few more times and she is ready with her paddle.

#51 SweetScience on 03.13.22 at 9:17 pm

51% of the American public thinks we’re in a recession right now… 21% thinks we’re in a depression.

It’s always a great time to stay in stocks?

Umm, no.

Not when for the last 10 weeks stocks have gone down and now this information.

#52 Bdwy on 03.13.22 at 9:21 pm

This includes the left coast, who fuels up mostly with imported gasoline from Bellingham, and it appears, Russia. Feels good to stick to Alberta & SK doesn’t it!

…….
Wrong coast for russian oil. The looney left of the 604 loves to virtue signal but western canadian/alaska is still the cheapest here. Feel all those bc dollars getting pipelined to alberta right now. Im paying 2 bux in van but im cheering for albertas energy industry.

Some gas is piped on the old tmx pipe.
…..bellingham gas in bc……
Most of Cherry Point’s crude oil is from the Alaska North Slope. It is brought in by petroleum tankers via the Strait of Juan de Fuca and Rosario Strait and delivered directly to the refinery via the facility’s tanker pier near a minor headland called Cherry Point, on the Strait of Georgia.[9][10] The refinery received the first oil through the Trans-Alaska Pipeline, transported aboard the ARCO Juneau, in early August 1977.[11][12][13]

The remainder of the crude comes from a pipeline connected to reserves in Western Canada. In January 2014 the refinery finished construction of a rail facility to import Bakken crude from North Dakota.[14]

#53 Michael in-north-york on 03.13.22 at 9:37 pm

#32 canuck on 03.13.22 at 6:40 pm

What’s different is that these are bordering countries, not separated by hundreds of thousands of Klms and Putin has gone “all in”. Will the west test Putin and risk WW3? Nope. They honestly have no skin in the game. What will America do when this war is over and China takes Taiwan? Nothing.
===

Following that path, all the free countries would fall one by one. We would have to accept the rule of one nuclear-armed dictator or another, and our lives will not be worth living.

Ironically, that would not save us from the nuclear destruction. Once a war between two nuclear dictators erupts, one of them will nuke us because we are the industrial base for his enemy.

We can’t give up. At some point, we have to go “all in” as well. Tens of millions will die on our side, but the enemy will be totally obliterated.

#54 yvr_lurker on 03.13.22 at 9:48 pm

#47 Unfortunately, $10 million is the new $2 million

Keep on truckin’
——————–
Well, I certainly don’t hope that I will need a 10M portfolio to be able to make ends meet when I stop working at age 66 or so, with a paid off house. ????
Perhaps with the way the world is going you may be right, but I think you are about 8M off.

#55 crowdedelevatorfartz on 03.13.22 at 9:55 pm

@#48 Yukon Elvis.

I wonder how long it will be before Russia has bled enough men, material and money on the Ukraine war to realize……

China is sitting at their unprotected back.

And after the butchery in Ukraine…. no western govt will step in to help them in any way …if China invades.

Putin has screwed Russia in every way possible.

#56 crowdedelevatorfartz on 03.13.22 at 10:02 pm

@#52 Bdwy
“The looney left of the 604 loves to virtue signal but western canadian/alaska is still the cheapest here. ”

+++

Yep.
The Wokesters encouraged by our “green” fearless feminist Leader to protest and blockade big bad oil everywhere…
As they accept the taxes and govt benefits from oil companies and their gas station product…govts on all levels are addicted to the endless flow of cash of fuel taxes.

They want their cake and to eat it too.

In about 25 years when the last gas stations shut down and everything is electric ….
Who will they blame then?

#57 Reality is stark on 03.13.22 at 10:20 pm

It appears that China favours a protracted war in the Ukraine. They will continue to purchase Russian products to fill the void caused by western sanctions.
Bogging the west down in Ukraine allows them the opportunity to pounce on Taiwan when the time is right and the west grows weary.
Such a travesty that Europe shirked appropriate payments to NATO while crying that America never does enough and that they engage in excessive military spending?
Now who needs those sophisticated weapons?
After the invasion of Crimea it was America who restricted trade with Russia while Europe committed to greater commerce with a nation content to kill European citizens strictly for sport.
When you blame America for all the evil in the world you display your ignorance.

#58 willworkforpickles on 03.13.22 at 11:06 pm

#51 SweetScience

“51% of the American public thinks we’re in a recession right now… 21% thinks we’re in a depression.”
……………………………………………………………………………………………………….

You got it.
That’s because in real terms we are in a recession that can’t be hidden with skewed official government figures.
They can’t completely hide it from small business and the consumer who are feeling the effects of a recession full on and saying – what gives, while government lies about it by means of the skewed CPI and GDP figures smokescreen they’ve rigged created and attempt to entirely hide behind.
Hiding behind a rigged CPI and GDP keeps people spending, whereas in an official recession spending would be curtailed. Now the real un-official recession we are in with current high inflation is already doing just that by a lessening of consumer spending or what appears so with the higher costs of everything.
At any rate, government and the Fed will never man up and just take the blame for their own corruption and reckless ruination of the economy .
Know this…they will always dream up scapegoats to blame for the messes they solely create , and will to the end.
I posted about how the GDP is rigged to the manipulated CPI to come up with purely obscurred from reality GDP numbers that give the appearance of a robust economy that is in fact anything but.

Government lies and the methods to cover their corruption along with their vast innumerable mistakes are building to no end. The gullible masses continue to drink the Kool-aid of those very lies.

#59 willworkforpickles on 03.13.22 at 11:33 pm

There are 2 GDP and 2 CPI sets of figures .
Those are the official and highly rigged GDP and CPI – (skewed) figures, solely used today, routinely being adjusted to hide ever worsening government and Fed corruption.
Then there’s what could be termed the honest and real (unofficial) non-manipulated GDP and CPI calculation methods no longer in use.

Do you want to peg your whole future adjusted to government lies?

#60 Dr V on 03.13.22 at 11:54 pm

Oh and I love Buppy.

#61 Foreign Buying on 03.14.22 at 12:05 am

Since 2014, in total, central banks around the world have purchased about 3x as much gold as they have treasuries.

Now that the USA has weaponized their dollar in a bigger way than evah in history, this is only just accelerating.

Pet rock says what?

#62 Jean Charest ain't it on 03.14.22 at 12:32 am

My Grandmother who is a very good judge of character said she doesn’t like him, my Mom said the same of him, I don’t either. So it looks like we might be stuck with Little Red Riding Hood, who took on the big bad wolf Putin.

#63 Barb on 03.14.22 at 12:34 am

Happy Birthday on Monday, Garth Turner!
Many happy returns.
Thank you for helping us prosper.

#64 expat on 03.14.22 at 1:17 am

American feminists demand from Ukraine to stop discrimination of Ukrainian women and to ban Ukrainian women at ages from 18 to 60 from to leave Ukraine as it was banned for men.

WHO (world health organization) warns against new big wave of covid-19, caused by migrants from Ukraine, because they do not use masks, do not keep social distance and do not have vaccinations with valid vaccination passports, as well as do not obey required self-isolation.

#65 willworkforpickles on 03.14.22 at 2:09 am

Its not so much by the greed of the oil companies the prices at the pumps are so high , but by the stupidity of the Biden and Trudeau administrations solely and directly.

The Rus/Ukr war would have been only a blip on the radar that would have been resolved already if it wasn’t for the nonsensical views and actions Biden and Trudeau have taken against domestic/NA stationed oil companies in the first place.

Now they blame the oil companies instead of themselves for gouging consumers and not pumping more oil due to their own greed.
The onus in fact is on Biden and Trudeau for derailing expansionist oil company plans to begin with and now the oil companies won’t risk doing more drilling and exploration to keep costs low while these two fools are still running the country/s.

#66 Gert Blanche on 03.14.22 at 3:42 am

With non-leaders like Biden and Trudeau in charge of the richest prize on the planet, North America, who’s to say we won’t let Russia take the Canadian Arctic? We have no defense, zero. Britain has begun patrolling for Canada due to concerns of thier own, but Trudeau couldn’t find our Arctic resource on a map of Canada. Biden/Trudeau have given in on Ukraine, it’s obvious. Who say Putin can’t take the already disputed defenseless Arctic from Trudeau? And from there? NWT, Yukon, Iqualuit? Easier picking than Ukraine, if course Putin will move, who wouldn’t? Why wouldn’t he?

#67 under the radar on 03.14.22 at 6:04 am

$2 Million wealthy? Don’t think so , not when it returns 120k a year. Not even close. That’s why $10 million is the new $2 million.

#68 Benny Jet on 03.14.22 at 6:17 am

#51 Sweet Science. The market is made up of individual stocks, they’re not all down. I bought a ‘sweet stock’ recently and it’s up nicely. RSI – Rogers Sugar, bought at $4.88 and today at $6.30. Do your own homework and connect the dots. Another Maple star, NTR – Nutrien bought at $46.50 to $130.00. Many more have done well but you get the idea. So, it depends on what you own, not what market you’re in. Like the BMI head stated recently ” “It’s a stock pickers market”.

#69 willworkforpickles on 03.14.22 at 7:15 am

As far as the unemployment picture in Canada goes, there are still about a million people not working that were before covid sent them home.
Even with those that are back to the old jobs they had before covid hit , high inflation now that wasn’t around pre-covid is going to negate real growth that existed pre-covid.
High and steady rising inflation along with fewer numbers back working is going to culminate in reduced growth quarter to quarter.
Its still going to be better than if those who hadn’t been working were still not working, but its not going to become the rosy economic picture rose coloured glasses wearers believe it will either.

#70 crowdedelevatorfartz on 03.14.22 at 8:14 am

@#66 Blanche Dubois
“Who say Putin can’t take the already disputed defenseless Arctic from Trudeau? And from there? NWT, Yukon, Iqualuit? Easier picking than Ukraine, if course Putin will move, who wouldn’t?”

++++

Russia invade Canada’s north?
Bwahahaha.
Can you please tell me what type of meds you’re on?
I wanna buy some.
Invade with what ?
Floating tanks and floating artillery?
They can’t.
For the same reason we won’t move on Ukraine.
Nukes.
But in this case it would be American nukes.

If the black flies and mosquitos didn’t drive them mad first…..

https://www.vnews.com/Column-In-praise–not!–of-black-flies-34385709

#71 crowdedelevatorfartz on 03.14.22 at 8:28 am

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/germany-decides-principle-buy-f-35-fighter-jet-government-source-2022-03-14/

Has Canada made a decision to buy any new jets yet?
How long has it been since we started talking about replacing our 40+ year old CF-18’s?
20 years?
I think we have the distinction of flying Nato’s oldest aircraft.

#72 Stone on 03.14.22 at 8:39 am

Happy birthday, Garth!

#73 Dharma Bum on 03.14.22 at 8:48 am

#10 Quintillian

Entry point, as mentioned a billion times, is important.
——————————————————————————————————–

Uhhhhhh…and when, exactly, might that be?

Yah, I thought so.

Genius.

#74 Lentineiov on 03.14.22 at 9:01 am

DELETED

#75 Dharma Bum on 03.14.22 at 9:04 am

#51 SweetScience

It’s always a great time to stay in stocks?

Umm, no.

Not when for the last 10 weeks stocks have gone down and now this information.
——————————————————————————————————–

So, the time to have “gotten out” would have been 10 weeks ago?

Did you?

Or, like the rest of the ignorant herd, will you get out at the bottom?

Once they’ve gone down is not the time to get out.

Crystallizing losses across the board is not the best strategy.

#76 willworkforpickles on 03.14.22 at 10:04 am

#73 Dharma Bum #10 Quintilian

Chose a penny stock with good quarterly earnings , heavily shorted , not too much debt , no reverse split history , not too large of an os structure if possible and watch what it does for 4 quarters to see if it follows a pattern.
Such as … peaks near quarterly earnings release times (sell windows) and short bottom patterns (buy windows).
Stay out of it until you can see a consistent pattern there.
You can research a companies history for all of the above attributes , but its a lot of work and very time consuming as 99 percent fall short and don’t make the cut.
You can at any rate make a good living on the one or two or more rare finds that do make the cut out there buying and selling on a quarterly basis.

#77 Quintilian on 03.14.22 at 10:05 am

#73 Dharma Bum on 03.14.22 at 8:48 am

“Uhhhhhh…and when, exactly, might that be?

Yah, I thought so.

Genius.”

You answered your own question.
Garbage in garbage out.

#78 Shawn on 03.14.22 at 10:07 am

“Rigged” is the losers lament

#59 willworkforpickles on 03.13.22 at 11:33 pm

There are 2 GDP and 2 CPI sets of figures .
Those are the official and highly rigged GDP and CPI – (skewed) figures, solely used today, routinely being adjusted to hide ever worsening government and Fed corruption.

********************************
I well remember all the people who stayed away from the stock market around 2010 to 2014 because it had been such a rough ride since the tech wreck in the year 2000. Dozens of regulars on this very blog warned daily of the “rigged” market. They spoke often of the “plunge protection team” and how that would end badly. They stayed away as the S&P 500 doubled and then, radio silence as it tripled and ultimately more than quadrupled in about 12 years.

Losers always have an excuse. It often involves the world being rigged against them.

#79 I don't know on 03.14.22 at 10:42 am

“Humans are ruled more by fear than desire. Recency bias kicks in. We’re reluctant to invest until things feel good again – which is almost always after they have risen.”

-That quote is important. To be successful investor, one needs to tune out the noise. Problem is, there has never been more noise than now.

Social media has created echo chambers where the most far flung, radical views are reinforced. The in group out group dynamic comes into play, and duped participants in these groups start to believe they have “inside” knowledge. It’s all fake, of course, since anyone can write anything on social media.

Hyperinflation, USD losing reserve status, debt default these are the current issues being discussed in these echo chambers. For the last 2 years it was how covid was going to wipe us all out. Prior to that, Iran, ebola, oil, and the list goes on.

There is never a “perfect time” to invest. You invest when you have the cash, otherwise, like our host mentioned, you miss the biggest gains.

You don’t know something everyone else doesn’t.
You are not privy to high level government meetings and intelligence.
Your “hunch” does not mean a thing.

IDK

#80 Sail Away on 03.14.22 at 10:45 am

Legendary investor Edward Thorp said, and I paraphrase (because laziness):

‘When markets drop, you’ll be caught every time along with everyone else.’

You just have to suck it up and sit on your hands. Overall market corrections are also not the time to gleefully proclaim genius status because you ‘called it’. In most cases, this rare breed is an inveterate and irritating sideline dweller, prone also to ‘told you so’. Ignore and stay the course. Change is constant.

#81 Great Bear Jim on 03.14.22 at 10:50 am

Hah. The Green Goon Crazies have been shown up as idiots .

https://financialpost.com/opinion/terence-corcoran-the-global-oil-war-head-spin

Thank your lucky stars there isn’t a mandatory bum kicking involved….yet.

#82 Ponzius Pilatus on 03.14.22 at 11:01 am

Zelensky has to be careful not the lose the goodwill of those who put him on his pedestal.
If the news are correct, he’s been criticizing NATO and Germany in particular, for not doing enough.
He’s no longer asking, he’s demanding.
NATO’s main objective is to keep the situation from escalating into a direct conflict between NATO and Russia.
That’s the reason for not granting the no-fly zone request from Zelensky.

#83 chalkie on 03.14.22 at 11:06 am

Put your Money into a private Reit David, collect you monthly Dividents and the Bonus’s also keep adding up.
Check the history on them, enjoy your cake and eat it too.

What an awful choice. – Garth

#84 Ponzius Pilatus on 03.14.22 at 11:08 am

Sigh.
While the world is focussing on Ukraine, the Saudis are killing off their opposition.
If the news is true.
What will the USA do about this?

#85 Don Guillermo on 03.14.22 at 11:15 am

#54 yvr_lurker on 03.13.22 at 9:48 pm
#47 Unfortunately, $10 million is the new $2 million

Keep on truckin’
——————–
Speaking of truckin’ last week was Semana de la Troca (Truck Week) here in Mazatlán. There are some beauty F-150/250’s in the mix just for Ponzie. Last time I filled up, gas was around $1.40/l CAD equivalent. Enjoy!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RIMO6vC7CAA

#86 Elon Fanboy on 03.14.22 at 1:17 pm

A single head of Romaine lettuce just almost doubled in price at my local store. Yikes.

#87 IHCTD9 on 03.14.22 at 1:24 pm

#54 yvr_lurker on 03.13.22 at 9:48 pm
#47 Unfortunately, $10 million is the new $2 million

Keep on truckin’
——————–
Well, I certainly don’t hope that I will need a 10M portfolio to be able to make ends meet when I stop working at age 66 or so, with a paid off house. ????
Perhaps with the way the world is going you may be right, but I think you are about 8M off.
____

Life could definitely be really cheap depending on circumstances and location. For example, our yearly costs if we were retired right now (with empty nest) would be about 28K for the basics.

Who knows what is coming down the pipe yet, but so far the B+D is looking like it could be gravy.

#88 Faron on 03.14.22 at 1:27 pm

A few things:

Thanks for your work Garth.

Just read Sebastian Junger’s Freedom. A short read that seeks to define freedom within the context of society and various political forms. I think even the easily triggered far-right trumpests (FaRTs) could enjoy it.

Ustabe’s “women cover their drinks” zinger was one for the ages. The target’s failure to recognize the distinction between a personal insult (based on an inexplicable pattern of alliance with accused harassers) and insulting one’s family was a nice touch. Said commenter also decided that midnight Saturday was a good time to logically conclude that the trucker convoy won the battle of the masks and will seemingly who others.

Nonplused seems to think that the only reliable information coming out of Ukraine is that which happens to align perfectly with the Russian narrative. Ponz seems to have finally recognized a NATO/Russia/Ukraine dynamic that everyone else has been aware of for weeks. The Jaguar dreams of Putin in short shorts to warm herself during these last, cold winter nights in Calgary.

Overall, the comments made this rock-bottom idiot a shade dumber. Congrats. Digging into the citations in Junger’s book should prove more fertile terrain.

Toodles!

#89 Figus Makum on 03.14.22 at 1:35 pm

Toxic Putin gets an assist in the tanking of Chinese stocks.
Xi Jingping should be more selective in picking his allies.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-03-14/china-s-tech-rout-deepens-amid-lockdown-geopolitical-worries

#90 Concerned Citizen on 03.14.22 at 1:36 pm

There have been long stretches over the last 100 years where stock returns were zero or even negative.

The last ~20 years, going all in at any time has paid off because the Fed has been giving the markets constant liquidity injections to keep them growing, and we’ve had a 40-year downtrend in rates. With inflation trending up towards double digits and real rates already highly negative, both of those trends may now be at an end. What does a market weaned off the great excesses of the last 20 years (last 10 especially) look like? What happens if both valuations and profit margins – both very high on a historical basis – normalize?

Price paid is a great determinant of future returns. Overpay and future returns can be expected to be poor, all else equal. Right now U.S. stocks in particular are obscenely expensive in my opinion, and that’s even with the recent correction. Other world markets offer better – but still not great – valuations.

Personally I don’t think now is a time to buy indiscriminately, and I certainly would not borrow money to buy stocks in this environment. The temptation is certainly there with money so cheap, but if there’s ever a time to borrow to invest, it’s when asset prices are cheap, not expensive.

#91 Nasdaq on 03.14.22 at 1:42 pm

Of look, the Nasdaq down 2%…

No one saw that coming,

Quelle surprise!

#92 Icebergs on 03.14.22 at 2:23 pm

DCA is holding back available cash and investing it according to the calendar. Bad idea. You have a 50% chance of buying less with the same cash. The best time to invest is always the same – whenever you have the funds. – Garth
____________________

I have cash to invest every month. By default, I prescribe to DCA. On one hand I am investing as you state Garth – ‘whenever you have the funds’. On the other hand, it is DCA investing. Is there another choice I am missing?

#93 Linda on 03.14.22 at 2:37 pm

Wealth is what you think it is. I & my partner are in good health which is priceless wealth right there. When purchasing additional travel insurance the litany of ills that folks apparently might have makes me wonder how anyone who has them would be able to travel in the first place. More like reserve their spot in the local cemetery. Also, retirement means different things to different people. You want to live a fancy, high end lifestyle, you need more $ than someone who is happy with a laid back, casual kind of lifestyle. Of course those folks whose health isn’t great might have to spend many $ on health care/support depending on just how ill they may be. Another reason to take as good care as possible of yourself. Being sick costs $ & isn’t exactly a whole lot of fun.

#94 willworkforpickles on 03.14.22 at 2:41 pm

#78 Shawn

What I posted there and what you’re talking about have no relation to each other.
You’ve got your wires crossed and are more than a little confused.

#95 Dr V on 03.14.22 at 3:28 pm

92 Icebergs – an excellent analogy. You have missed nothing. The reality for many Canadians.

#96 Al on 03.14.22 at 3:48 pm

#24 small clarification, the last property correction in Canada was 2008-2009.

#97 Ponzius Pilatus on 03.14.22 at 3:51 pm

#93 Linda on 03.14.22 at 2:37 pm
Wealth is what you think it is. I & my partner are in good health which is priceless wealth right there. When purchasing additional travel insurance the litany of ills that folks apparently might have makes me wonder how anyone who has them would be able to travel in the first place. More like reserve their spot in the local cemetery. Also, retirement means different things to different people. You want to live a fancy, high end lifestyle, you need more $ than someone who is happy with a laid back, casual kind of lifestyle. Of course those folks whose health isn’t great might have to spend many $ on health care/support depending on just how ill they may be. Another reason to take as good care as possible of yourself. Being sick costs $ & isn’t exactly a whole lot of fun.
———————————
Amen.
All the illnesses they list on these forms are there to almost automatically reject your claims.
And don’t drink alcohol when you travel to the States.
If you have an emergency, and they find a trace of alcohol in your blood, it’s mostly judged your fault

#98 Ponzius Pilatus on 03.14.22 at 4:17 pm

Hey Guys,
Gotta take this over 100.

#99 The Riddler on 03.14.22 at 4:30 pm

Market crash, food shortages and financial collapse coming!

#100 I can’t say it. on 03.14.22 at 4:57 pm

Ustabe’s “women cover their drinks” zinger was one for the ages.
Xxxx
You call it a zinger. It is innuendo for harassment, on two levels.

#101 Justin on 03.14.22 at 7:07 pm

Neutrality – is that what we call military occupation now? – Garth

Yes. Just like Brits occupied and killed Natives in Canada occupying their land and poisoning them even until today.

Just like the Spanish, Brits occupied what is now US killing millions of Indians. And then invaded and annexed Texas in the Mexican War killing hundreds of thousands of Mexicans and still occupy it until today.

Hypocrite much?