The good, the bad & the ugly

Ryan with his boys at last weekend’s Stand with Ukraine event in Toronto.
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RYAN   By Guest Blogger Ryan Lewenza
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During these unsettling times it’s important to stand back and take an objective and unemotional assessment of the situation. It’s easy to get caught up in the depressing headlines and 24 hours news coverage that you can ‘lose the forest for the trees’. So today I review the good, the bad and the ugly for the global economy/markets following the Russian invasion of Ukraine.

The good

Let’s start with the good news, which is that the US and Canadian economies are in solid shape and should hold up through this terrible period for Ukraine and the deep contraction I’m expecting for the Russian economy.

The US unemployment rate fell to 3.8% last month, the lowest level seen since Q4/19 of 3.6%, just before Covid-19 hit. So, the US economy is back to the historic low unemployment rates experienced under ex-President Trump. That’s a pretty impressive feat and speaks to the strength of the US economy. Similarly, Canada’s unemployment rate is at 5%, again one of the lowest levels seen in decades.

This, combined with pent-up demand, high cash balances and Covid-19 seemingly in retreat, should unleash a gusher of consumer spending in the coming year. I see a major shift in spending away from durable goods and into services like vacations, shopping, sports and music events, and all the Star Trek nerds making the pilgrimage to Las Vegas to make up for the recent cancelled events.

Essentially, I see some serious ‘YOLO’ in the coming months and years and this should support consumer spending, which accounts for 70% of business activity in the US and Canada.

Moving to the fundamentals, earnings for the S&P 500 and TSX are set to rise roughly 15% this year based on current estimates. With the war and many US companies exiting/halting Russian operations this could weigh on earnings so maybe US earnings come in a bit weaker-than-expected. But in Canada with the solid bank earnings and high resource prices I see TSX earnings doing even better and see positive revisions coming. Either way earnings should trend higher, which is supportive to stock prices.

Finally, with the stock market correction this year, valuations have improved and are at their lowest levels since the Covid-19 bear market. Currently, the S&P 500 is trading at an 18x forward P/E, well down from its high of 23x it traded at for much of last year.

The TSX is trading at an even more attractive 14x earnings, another reason why the outlook for Canadian stock is improving.

While I wouldn’t go as far to say stocks are ‘cheap’ and a screaming buy, they are looking more attractive these days. So that’s some good news not getting much attention.

Valuations (P/Es) Are at Their Lowest Levels since Early 2020

Source: Bloomberg, Turner Investments

The bad

The Russian economy is very likely going to take a big economic hit given the historic government sanctions and the massive exodus of multinational companies from the country. To date over 300 large corporations have either halted their Russian operations or leaving outright.

With all that stacked against the Russian economy, it’s not a question of whether their economy will take a hit but rather how deep and lasting the contraction will be. The Russian citizens are about to feel some real economic pain due to Putin’s war.

The question then is what impact will this have on the broader global economy?

Russia’s economy represents just 1.5% of the entire global economy so a contraction there does not necessarily spell doom for the global economy. In my view the key will be how this war and sanctions impacts the European economy from spillover effects. Europe and Russia are large trading partners.

Despite this I still see the global economy growing at a decent clip this year. To start the year, consensus was calling for the global economy to grow at 4.5% for 2022. This has been revised down to 4.1% following the invasion and it likely has further to go. But the key point is that I still see the global economy doing ok this year on the back of solid growth from the US and China – the two largest economies in the world.

Global Growth Has Been Revised Lower Following the Invasion

Source: Bloomberg, Turner Investments
The ugly

What has me most concerned about the war with respect to the global economy is the impact of surging commodity prices.

WTI oil hit $130/bl this week but backed off to $110 mid-week. We’ve seen coal, gold, wheat to nickel all spike in recent days. Some commodity price appreciation is a good thing as it generally shows higher demand and economic strength. But too much commodity appreciation is worrisome as it: 1) starts to weigh on demand and economic activity; and 2) leads to higher inflation and in turn, tighter monetary policies from central banks.

A big development on that front was UAE’s recent announcement that it supports OPEC increasing production to help combat the high oil price. If Saudi Arabia gets on board (they should since it’s in their best interests) then we could see OPEC increase supply, which could help alleviate the high prices.

Finally, given the terrible strategic thinking and military execution around this invasion, the pressure is building for Putin and his cronies so maybe, in an attempt to save face, a ceasefire is brokered and hostilities subside. Late this week Putin was quoted as saying ‘there are certain positive shifts, negotiators on our side tell me’, so maybe there’s a glimmer of hope in a ceasefire.

While I don’t trust one word from this ruthless tyrant, when the Russian economy is on the precipice of a major economic contraction and they are facing numerous setbacks in the battlefield, it’s clear his position is tenuous and he may need to retreat.

So it’s not all bad news out there. The US economy is cooking, Covid-19 could be in retreat and hopefully Putin comes to his senses soon or China comes to the rescue and brokers a peace deal. Until then, expect more volatility in the short-term followed by a big economic and market recovery as this terrible period comes to an end.

Commodity Prices Surge

Source: Stockcharts.com, Turner Investments
Ryan Lewenza, CFA, CMT is a Partner and Portfolio Manager with Turner Investments, and a Senior Investment Advisor, Private Client Group, of Raymond James Ltd.

 

130 comments ↓

#1 LewenzaCountry aka Prince Polo on 03.12.22 at 10:31 am

How does Putin possibly save face for his murder-spree (rhetorical)

#2 HUNGRY BEAR on 03.12.22 at 10:31 am

If you know these markets well there is oodles of cash to be made within the volatility.

Volatility = Vitality
“Michael Saylor, CEO of Microstrategy”

#3 Flop… on 03.12.22 at 10:41 am

My Euro Fund is tanking, and I feel fine…

M47BC

#4 crowdedelevatorfartz on 03.12.22 at 10:47 am

Sadly.
I don’t trust anything Putin says.
Putin only cares about Putin.
He has been embarrassed by Ukraine’s prolonged resistance and will grind their cities to dust as punishment . The same as he did in Chechnya.
He doesn’t care about Russian or Ukrainian lives lost.
They are just numbers on a daily report sheet.

The Ukraine people have proven their stubborn resistance to his invasion.
The longer this drags on the deeper the hate will grow.
I expect years of urban/rural guerrilla warfare with atrocities on both sides.
The Russians will eventually leave after thousands of their soldiers return home in body bags.

#5 Richard L on 03.12.22 at 10:59 am

A good time to buy defense (military) stocks as all western nations appear to be massively increasing defense spending.

#6 Slim on 03.12.22 at 11:15 am

With Putin invading Ukraine, it kind of reminds of the time when WW1 started; when many were thinking it would be all over by Christmas, 1914. Instead it lasted almost till Christmas of 1918.

#7 Shawn on 03.12.22 at 11:19 am

What does Reserve Currency Mean?

“When your children have grandchildren, the US dollar will still be the planet’s reserve currency. – Garth”

Google gave me this definition:

What Is a Reserve Currency?
A reserve currency is a large quantity of currency maintained by central banks and other major financial institutions to prepare for investments, transactions, and international debt obligations, or to influence their domestic exchange rate. A large percentage of commodities, such as gold and oil, are priced in the reserve currency, causing other countries to hold this currency to pay for these goods.

**************************
So the U.S. dollar being the reserve currency means oil is priced internationally in U.S. dollars. No currency risk to U.S producers or users of oil. Every other country faces not only the U.S. price risk of oil but currency risk on top.

It means Gold is priced in U.S. dollars (and certainly not the other way around)

It even means BitCoin is priced in U.S dollars and not the other way around.

The reserve currency will probably tend to be the currency of the largest economy in the world.

With three times the population and with its standard of living moving constantly upwards toward that of the U.S. (but a long way to go), China will inevitably become a far larger economy than the U.S.

There will be inertia and western world support that will keep the U.S. dollar as reserve currency for a long time. But for how long?

Anyhow, the status of the U.S. dollar as reserve currency or not is not likely anything that should affect most of us. We should all be somewhat globally diversified in our investments in any case.

I’m confident that my U.S. dollar investments will allow me to spend in the U.S. and globally for at least the rest of my life.

#8 Inadequate on 03.12.22 at 11:24 am

Ryan, would UAE’s announcement fundamentally change the fact that
a) years of underinvestment in oil and gas means no or little spare capacity
b) oil consumption’s up trend still in tact despite renewables
c) no political nor shareholder support for large capital investment to increase future production?

I see high oil price last much much longer than previous cycles. Unless recession comes or both Iranion and Russian oil hitting the market at the same time.

It is not right when a bottle of cola costs more than the same bottle of gasoline. Yet, this price distortion has been with us forever. I believe that we had low oil price for far too long. So low that we are simply wasting it.

#9 the Jaguar on 03.12.22 at 11:34 am

Good post by Rupa Subramanya in the NP about cancel culture. Here’s an excerpt:

“On March 8, the Orchestre symphonique de Montréal, one of Canada’s premier cultural institutions, cancelled the appearances of Alexander Malofeev, a 20-yearold Russian pianist, after pushback from a group of Ukrainian Montrealers who objected to the Russian’s appearance given the ongoing Russia-ukraine conflict.
This happened despite the fact that Malofeev had explicitly condemned the Russian invasion of Ukraine. A spokesperson for the orchestra said that it would “inappropriate” for him to perform at this time.

The Russian Community Centre in Vancouver was vandalized recently, and the Moscow Tea Room in Ottawa has received hateful emails and phone calls.

Meanwhile, police in Calgary are investigating online harassment of Russian Calgarians and are treating the incidents as potential hate crimes.

This cancel culture has seeped into international relations, too. After Bangladesh joined 35 other countries to abstain in a vote at the United Nations General Assembly condemning Russia, the Lithuanian government the next day cancelled its donation of 444,600 doses of life-saving COVID-19 vaccines that were to be sent to that country. Evidently, the Lithuanian government believes that Bangladeshis and Rohingya refugees who would have been beneficiaries of these vaccines are now unworthy, given their government’s decision not to take a stand on the war.” +++

I read that Ovechkin was booed at a recent Calgary Flames game. Pretty shameful. Then there is the recent disclosure that META will allow ‘a little hate speech ‘ to filter through if directed at the usual suspects.

Pull down and steal someone’s flag on Canada Day, etc. Seems a pretty mild offence when viewed from the lens of the above.

We are living in the age of ‘Everything goes and nothing matters’.

Here’s another small excerpt from events that occured in the 1930’s:

“Jewish musicians were systematically expelled from concert halls and opera houses throughout German-controlled Europe.
Between 1933 and 1939, more than 2,000 conductors, soloists, concert masters, singers, members of orchestras, and musicologists were banned or expelled from stages and teaching positions throughout Germany, Austria, and Poland because they were Jewish.”

#10 Ryan Lewenza on 03.12.22 at 11:50 am

Inadequate “ Ryan, would UAE’s announcement fundamentally change the fact that
a) years of underinvestment in oil and gas means no or little spare capacity
b) oil consumption’s up trend still in tact despite renewables
c) no political nor shareholder support for large capital investment”

No but it would help. If OPEC ramps up production maybe it will put a top in the price but I agree with your points which is why I see higher oil prices for a while. – Ryan L

#11 Transitory on 03.12.22 at 11:59 am

The USA monetary and fiscal policies over the last 4 decades have led to an untenable position for the dollar.

Before Ukraine, prices in all tangibles have been soaring with an “official” inflation rate of 7.5% in January.

Translation- everything as you once knew it will never be the same again. The USA fiat dollar was and is rapidly losing its purchasing power.

Add to it the unprecedented FX and other financial sanctions on Russia who is a global commodities powerhouse and what we have now is a…

Monetary Earthquake

So many people here so unused to inflation. No, the tectonic plates are not shifting. – Garth

#12 TurnerNation on 03.12.22 at 12:00 pm

SO what might come next in this global WW3 – it kicked off March 2020 in all the Former First World Countries. (Wartime measures were pushed onto the populace:
– Unlimited government spending.
– House arrest.
– Armed checkpoints, paperwork, travel restrictions
– Attacks on the supply chain, stock market. )
– Small busineses were decimated/Means of productions were seized by the government – as in ordered to shut down. )

Easy. Check the history books. USA Must be drawn in.
What could it be a Cyber attack blamed on Russia or, does it really matter what gets cooked up?
Our Telescreens will advise us and we will explode into hate. Herd animals.

WW1: In Year 3 (where we are now in WW3) the USA suddenly gets drawn in.
“Shortages caused by the Allied naval blockade led Germany to initiate unrestricted submarine warfare in early 1917, bringing the previously neutral United States into the war on 6 April 1917.”
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_War_I

WW2. Pearl Harbour. By…Japan. Really? Not Germany?
What beef did tiny Japan have, knowing it would be wiped out by the large nation. What a setup this was by the globalists.

WW3? Stay tuned. We are in Year 3.

#13 Upenuff on 03.12.22 at 12:05 pm

Ryan,
Thanks for this, always a pleasure to read your perspective on a Saturday morning with a cup of coffee in hand and knowing we are safe and healthy. Kind of eerie walking around Vancouver yesterday, with day one of no masks, seeing people who had mouths and chins…. wow!

#14 Philco on 03.12.22 at 12:13 pm

Thank Ryan
Ya we are chugging along a ok.
My research show continued inflation / currency detruction.
Peeps should plan and invest on that.

Micheal from NEWYORK I left you some notes on prior blog. Good luck bro.

#15 Shawn on 03.12.22 at 12:16 pm

Why Japan attcked Pearl harbour?

TurnerNation says:

WW2. Pearl Harbour. By…Japan. Really? Not Germany?
What beef did tiny Japan have, knowing it would be wiped out by the large nation. What a setup this was by the globalists.

*****************************
What I have read is that the U.S. for some reason was brutally blocking imports of oil and other essential things to Japan and that is what provoked Japan to attack at Pearl Harbour. I’m sure others have more knowledge of it than you (apparent conspiracy theorist) or I.

#16 Sail Away on 03.12.22 at 12:19 pm

Let’s move away from the day to day and view the true long-term… say 50 – 100 years.

From history, we can infer:

1. Human population will increase
2. Markets will continue to increase because there are continually more people moiling away
3. More restrictions will be in place
4. The means of production, the necessities of life, will always be in demand

What to do? Obviously, plan for the family dynasty:

1. More people/same amount of land = buy and hold desirable, remote and reasonably-priced parcels bordering parkland, lakes, rivers, etc.
2. Invest in successful and large companies producing and transporting necessities of life. When they are attractively-priced, of course.
3. Invest in the major indexes. Buy the dips.
4. Diversify holdings by sector, area, country of jurisdiction. Keep an escape hatch or three.

Do all these forever.

#17 Flop… on 03.12.22 at 12:24 pm

I will probably still wear a mask in tight spaces like the supermarket, out of respect for the workers if they are wearing them.

The biggest negative I see about ending the mask mandate in Vancouver, is now I once again have to witness people walk around this city with that predisposed smug grin on their faces…

M47BC

#18 TurnerNation on 03.12.22 at 12:24 pm

— A look into the Future. The Digital ID is permanent – was so designed. Provinces to launch it late 2022.

“Extension of EU Digital COVID Certificate Regulation”
https://ec.europa.eu/info/law/better-regulation/have-your-say/initiatives/13375-Extension-of-EU-Digital-COVID-Certificate-Regulation_en

– On the permanent rolling Economic and Social Lockdowns in the Former First World Countries.
Keep an eye on these regions. We next?

.Shanghai shuts schools due to fresh COVID-19 outbreak (reuters.com)
.Singapore – ‘Too early’ to consider relaxing Covid-19 rules on live music, alcohol consumption (businesstimes.com.sg)

— From Reddit. Our globalist rulers must be roaring with laughter. They won fair and square – that cold winter week March 2020 when the world fell.
At 10:30 PM you will get scolded as children and your drinks taken away:

“Current rules in Singapore (94% of the eligible population fully vaccinated):
Alcohol can’t remain on the table after 10.30pm, if you haven’t finished it’ll be taken away
Mandatory masks indoors and outdoors
When going to a bar or restaurant, you’re not allowed to speak to anyone who didn’t come with you
Maximum 5 people can hang out together in a group
Live music and dancing is banned
Undercover policemen patrolling the street, catching those who don’t wear masks properly
Most of mall entrances blocked off, only a few entrances open, set up with checkpoints verifying that you checked in with a special tracing application
No entry to malls, restaurants for unvaccinated people (and unboosted if their 2nd shot was more than 270 days ago). Mandatory booster also applies to children 12-17 years old.
If you’re shopping for perfume, you have to smell the testers through the mask
For tourists, borders are closed off to all countries except 32 selected countries, you can only arrive on a special designated flight (that’s up to 2x more expensive than a normal flight)”

#19 Ponzius Pilatus on 03.12.22 at 12:33 pm

#4 CEF

The Russians will eventually leave after thousands of their soldiers return home in body bags.
——————————-
Gotta keep up with the fake news, CEF.

“Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said that Russian forces are carrying mobile cremation chambers for their dead to obscure the true number of Russians who’ve died thus far in the war that erupted last week after Russian President Vladimir Putin ordered an invasion of Ukraine.”
——————
I don’t put much value in the “news” coming out from either side.
We’re still trying to figure out, what “really” happened in Afghanistan.
Or Syria, or Vietnam etc.

#20 Tarot Card on 03.12.22 at 12:47 pm

Thanks for the blog Garth
Thanks for the Post Ryan
I agree with other comments about a good read for a Saturday
Enjoy the optimism !

While I worry, to be honest I cannot get my head around 2.5 million plus, refugees, cannot imagine living without water or food in the basement with bombs going off.

To me the answer would be swing the Ukraine army around behind the Russians and attack. Or send your planes and bomb the Kremlin. Best defence is surprise offence. Remember Churchill bombed Berlin Then Germany retaliated and bombed London killed thousands but saved the airfields. And guess who won!

For me the biggest worry is what happens after?
Do 2.5 million people go home? Go home to what?
44 million people you cannot occupy a country that big, sorry everyone will fight.
And what will Russia occupy rubble?

And if you really think about it how many troops and equipment will be tied up? Leaves your flanks wide open.

Also been reading all the food that goes to North Africa from Ukraine and Russia, what will happen!? millions will starve! And Canada and US faced the worst drought in history.

Anyway will try to stay positive!

#21 I don't know on 03.12.22 at 12:48 pm

#7 Shawn on 03.12.22 at 11:19 am

The most salient factor going for the USD is the complete lack of viable competitors.

China may have a large economy, but the level of trust isn’t there, nor will it ever be. There is a lot going on under the hood there that is not published.

The reality is anyone who predicts the loss of USD status is projecting their emotions (hopes, fears, frustrations) more than anything else. All you have to do is look at what has happened in the last two weeks, where it has become crystal clear why the USD has its status, and will continue to have its status for a long long time.

IDK

#22 Ponzius Pilatus on 03.12.22 at 12:53 pm

#9
Totally get you and agree with your point.
That’s the problem with the ill-informed and ignorant masses.
Just another form of racism.
I had some similar experience when I came to “British” Columbia in the late 70’s.
With my German accented English, Nazi references were often brought to discussions.
Did not bother me much, you gotta roll with the punches.
But I can see how something like that can ruin people’s career’s and live.

#23 Flop… on 03.12.22 at 1:34 pm

Well, Mrs Flop wouldn’t sign off on a road trip to Vegas with Garth.

What about a block of land for 75k, then I asked?

Probably not going to let me buy property near Nimpo Lake, even though I told her that there were no Nymph’s there…

M47BC

—————————————————————

“Affordable, 4.23 commercial acres with frontage on Otter Rd and Highway 20 on Nimpo Lake. Partially treed with a small pond and well-built storage shed with power. Perfect location for a home, storage unit or tourism business right across the road from the Lake.”

https://landquest-production.herokuapp.com/listings/lakeview-lot-nimpo-lake-bc?utm_source=vancouver%20is%20awesome&utm_campaign=vancouver%20is%20awesome%3A%20outbound&utm_medium=referral

#24 DON on 03.12.22 at 2:03 pm

#22 Ponzius Pilatus on 03.12.22 at 12:53 pm
#9
Totally get you and agree with your point.
That’s the problem with the ill-informed and ignorant masses.
Just another form of racism.
I had some similar experience when I came to “British” Columbia in the late 70’s.
With my German accented English, Nazi references were often brought to discussions.
Did not bother me much, you gotta roll with the punches.
But I can see how something like that can ruin people’s career’s and live.

***********

I agree with you both.

After the WW2 my grandfather moved to Van Isle Island and found himself living beside a german family on one side and a dutch on the other both had immigrated after the war. Across the street was a Coast Salish family and all families had grand kids. My grandfather and the german grandfather never spoke. They didn’t build fences at the front of the houses but the backs were lined with shops and wood sheds and fences. All the grandmothers spoke to eachother and all the grandfathers were civil but not really talkative. They lived in peace side by side till they all passed away. What they all experienced and witnessed during the war was horrific but they chose to live respectfully side by side and all grandchildren were taught to repect their neighbours. Of course our grandmothers were instrumental cause they wouldn’t put up with any nonsense that would affect the children. Was the safest neighbourhood that’s for sure.

#25 Dave on 03.12.22 at 2:06 pm

Any chance BoC will do a .5% interest rate hike next month to fight inflation?

#26 Barb on 03.12.22 at 2:11 pm

Putin is threatening to seize the assets of companies that pull out of Russia…

#27 Dr V on 03.12.22 at 2:21 pm

8 Inadequate

“It is not right when a bottle of cola costs more than the same bottle of gasoline. Yet, this price distortion has been with us forever.”

BS. $0.99 for two litres of PC cola at superstore.

https://www.maxi.ca/p/20311645003_EA

Biggest problem for me is it is seldom emptied before it
goes flat.

#28 Dr V on 03.12.22 at 2:35 pm

21 IDK

“China may have a large economy, but the level of trust isn’t there, nor will it ever be.”
—————————————–

Absolutely agree. Reserve currencies include the US$,
Euro, Yen, Pound, Cdn$, Aus$ and the Renminbi. No other currencies come anywhere close. No one will ever
use the ruble (lack of trust), the rupee (lack of confidence) or any of the bit players that may be trustworthy but simply dont represent enough of the world economy or trade.

The Cdn$ enjoys high status throughout much of latin America. The Aus$ is actually traded more than the
cdn$ due to proximity to Asian markets. And the renminbi is used only because of economic size.

https://data.imf.org/?sk=E6A5F467-C14B-4AA8-9F6D-5A09EC4E62A4

#29 Ponzius Pilatus on 03.12.22 at 2:37 pm

#20 Tarot Card on 03.12.22 at 12:47 pm
Thanks for the blog Garth
Thanks for the Post Ryan
I agree with other comments about a good read for a Saturday
Enjoy the optimism !

While I worry, to be honest I cannot get my head around 2.5 million plus, refugees, cannot imagine living without water or food in the basement with bombs going off.

To me the answer would be swing the Ukraine army around behind the Russians and attack. Or send your planes and bomb the Kremlin. Best defence is surprise offence. Remember Churchill bombed Berlin Then Germany retaliated and bombed London killed thousands but saved the airfields. And guess who won!
—————–
For me, humankind lost.
I was born in East Germany after the war.
And I remember, my mother took me to Berlin and Dresden.
I was too young to get what happened.
But later on, I heard about the Allied bombings, particularily of Dresden, which was almost demolished.
There are no firm numbers of deaths, because the city was choke full with refugees from the East.
Some estimates are as high as 300,000.
But if I mention that, the answer is, you guys started it, you deserved it.
Maybe.
But, tell that to a 6 year old kid.

#30 Ponzius Pilatus on 03.12.22 at 2:41 pm

#27 Dr V on 03.12.22 at 2:21 pm
8 Inadequate

“It is not right when a bottle of cola costs more than the same bottle of gasoline. Yet, this price distortion has been with us forever.”

BS. $0.99 for two litres of PC cola at superstore.

https://www.maxi.ca/p/20311645003_EA

Biggest problem for me is it is seldom emptied before it
goes flat.
—————–
That’s why I only buy cans.
I find it tastes best straight from the can.
11 bucks for 32 cans at Costco.
Sailo, let me know when it’s a good time to by Costco shares.

#31 Linda on 03.12.22 at 2:44 pm

Perhaps it isn’t as bad as it sounds, but based on what business news headlines regarding Russia’s economy I think the ‘ugly’ has already had a go. The ruble could possibly be called the ‘rubble’; the Russian stock exchange lost a reported 80% before trading was halted; reports state the Russian CB will continue to suspend trading on the Russian exchange for another week; companies are departing or ceasing to operate at least for now etc. Putin might be happy with his invasion but the people aren’t having a very good time.

#32 Down Baby on 03.12.22 at 2:51 pm

Many think the USA economy is strong and resilient, and the war will be over soon.

The S&P500 made many 1-3% swings this past week, this never happens in an normal inflationary environment for stocks or commodities.

That only happens when things are bad.

#33 Yukon Elvis on 03.12.22 at 2:52 pm

#22 Ponzius Pilatus on 03.12.22 at 12:53 pm
#9

I had some similar experience when I came to “British” Columbia in the late 70’s.
With my German accented English, Nazi references were often brought to discussions.
++++++++++++
I saw that growing up in BC in the 50’s and 60’s. Lots of animosity towards Germans. Even the kids got razzed. It took a few generations to fade away. We still curse Hitler and the Nazis 75 years later. The world will not forget what Putin has done for a long time to come.

#34 Ballingsford on 03.12.22 at 2:58 pm

Nice post Ryan!

#13 Upenuff

I’ll also be glad when the mask mandates end here in about a week. I’ll be able to tell who’s a boy and who’s a girl again.

#35 Arm chair economist on 03.12.22 at 2:59 pm

If negotiations happen, and 2014 seized lands are given to Russia, Ukraine and Russia will resemble east and west Germany, or North and South Korea. One side open to the world and thriving, the other side completely authoritarian.

Second potential outcome: Putin gets overthrown and Russia comes back from the brink.

Third potential outcome: Putin overthrown, and another dictator keeps the country oppressed.

One thing is certain, a Russia that is not democratic will not be rejoining the free market global community. So the global race for oil market share should be a embraced by Canada, America, and OPEC. Whoever grabs that market share first, wins. If left too long, prices will kill demand. Drill baby drill!

#36 Dr V on 03.12.22 at 3:05 pm

26 Barb

“Putin is threatening to seize the assets of companies
that pull out of Russia…”
———————————————

Do you have a link for what busineses could be heavily affected?

Not a surprise to me and I am sure this was carefully
considered by these corporations. A good chance that they were going down with the Russian economy anyways. I bet they were moving their bank assets out ASAP.

I might have expected some different wording such as “suspending operations due to diminishing confidence
in local currency” or “restricted access to global
financial networks”.

I did like BKs stance that they were to stay open and send local profits to Ukraine. Not sure how that went. And what would Ukraine do with rubles?

#37 crowdedelevatorfartz on 03.12.22 at 3:08 pm

@#26 Barb
“Putin is threatening to seize the assets of companies that pull out of Russia…”

+++

That’s a given.
Investor beware.
Pump millions or billions into a dictatorship and annoy the dictator…..
Seized.
Happens all the time in Africa.
Why should Putin-stan be any different?

Let’s see how well corrupt, kleptocratic, Russia does under the Chinese umbrella…

#38 dragonfly58 on 03.12.22 at 3:09 pm

If your ambition is to live in the true ” middle of nowhere “, Nimpo lake would fit the bill admirably.

#39 Michael in-north-york on 03.12.22 at 3:14 pm

#9 the Jaguar on 03.12.22 at 11:34 am
===

This is an important issue. People who feel strongly about the situation: please do not go looking for a domestic “Russian” target to vent your anger. That won’t help anyone.

The Kremlin empire does not care about its own expats, and will not change its ways in response to any pressure put on those expats. In the minds of Kremlin rulers, people are useful when they live on the lands Kremlin controls. Those people can be used as slaves (workers, conscripts, taxpayers etc). People who settled abroad cannot be controlled by Kremlin, hence they are useless outcasts and can be ignored.

Instead, please support the Ukrainians in a way that actually helps someone. Make a donation, come to the Stand With Ukraine rally, greet the refugees when they come and help them settle, etc.

#40 pPrasseur on 03.12.22 at 3:16 pm

So many people here so unused to inflation. No, the tectonic plates are not shifting. – Garth

I disagree.

Inflation was low for the past 30 years due to the arrival of millions of low wage workers (China, India, Mexico, etc..) in the world markets, the massive surpluses in those countries helped keep interest rates low is our economies.

That era is coming to a close, inflation is here to stay, money print won’t cut it anymore, you want to be rich and live well you’re actually going to have to work hard and be productive, something we largely forgot how to do especially in this country.

Won’t happen all at once, but IMO there is no stopping this.

#41 Søren Angst on 03.12.22 at 3:21 pm

On board with what you say Ryan other than Commodities. Skewed to me due to speculation as of late. Wait and see on that.

———————

Italia seizes “Sy A” Melnichenko’s €530M yacht in Trieste.

https://www.today.it/cronaca/yacht-piu-grande-del-mondo-sequestrato-italia-oligarca-russo-dove.html

The 3rd Oligarch yacht seized so far (other 2: Mordashov’s “Lady M” in Imperia & Timchenko ‘s “Lena” in San Remo).

PS:

Italia ALSO has her eye on the €700M Russian “Scheherazade” super yacht in Marina di Carrara. The US believes it is Putin’s. No confirmation yet.
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/03/11/us/politics/putin-yacht-russia-ukraine.htm

https://www.vesselfinder.com & Search for:
SCHEHERAZADE
[Yacht, Cayman Islands flag]

AND…

Roman Abramovich yacht “Solaris” wisely on other side of Adriatic from Italia.

https://www.vesselfinder.com & Search for:
MY SOLARIS

Click on Map to find where they are moored (for Lady M search for the port of Imperia).

——

Italia 3 – Russia 0

#42 dragonfly58 on 03.12.22 at 3:25 pm

It is very scenic. Popular with float plane owners, a hell of a long drive to the next town in either direction. Very little potential for trouble with the neighbors. Snow machine ownership mandatory.

#43 crowdedelevatorfartz on 03.12.22 at 3:26 pm

@#23 Flop

If you want to fit in with the locals…
Take up Banjo lessons….

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wz9jL3YNX-0

#44 KLNR on 03.12.22 at 3:28 pm

@#9 the Jaguar on 03.12.22 at 11:34 am
Good post by Rupa Subramanya in the NP about cancel culture.

Here’s another small excerpt from events that occured in the 1930’s:

“Jewish musicians were systematically expelled from concert halls and opera houses throughout German-controlled Europe.
Between 1933 and 1939, more than 2,000 conductors, soloists, concert masters, singers, members of orchestras, and musicologists were banned or expelled from stages and teaching positions throughout Germany, Austria, and Poland because they were Jewish.”

pfft, apples and oranges argument.
shame on you for trying to equate the two.

putin currently trying his hardest to cancel Ukraine.

#45 Don Guillermo on 03.12.22 at 3:30 pm

#37 crowdedelevatorfartz on 03.12.22 at 3:08 pm
@#26 Barb
“Putin is threatening to seize the assets of companies that pull out of Russia…”

+++++
I saw similar first hand during Chavez’s early years in Venezuela. Interesting how some countries can be destroyed by a few people.

#46 Søren Angst on 03.12.22 at 3:31 pm

On Putin (Poutine) it will be over soon.

About 25% of their military equipment already destroyed.
https://twitter.com/carlbildt/status/1502415478748237833

Putin arrests his TOP SPIES. *
https://www.aftonbladet.se/nyheter/a/oWQngB/uppgift-putins-hamnd-lat-gripa-sina-toppspioner
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10603045/Putin-places-head-FSBs-foreign-intelligence-branch-house-arrest.html

————–

Failure plain to see. Putin is already beginning to blame people for it.

* Not a wise move as Russia has a habit of offing its leadership.

#47 Søren Angst on 03.12.22 at 3:36 pm

My Threadbare Portfolio back to its +2.46% for the past 30 days.

yeah oil
yeah maple

Ryan, your 15% for the year Mr. Market estimate looking good to me.

Russia will be done as dinner soon enough.

#48 ulsterman on 03.12.22 at 3:41 pm

From the March 11th post:

#66 Bezengy on 03.11.22 at 6:17 pm
Girls at not encouraged to enter the trades, and that’s a shame. If you don’t believe me call the local high school and ask how many girls are taking wood working or automotive class.

I work in a high school placing kids on work experience and apprenticeships. We are falling over ourselves promoting trades to female students. Special presentations aimed at females, priority placements, quotas, scholarships etc. There’s just one problem that our woke society just has trouble getting their heads around. High school girls just don’t want to work in the trades. Yes you get the odd female in the auto service tech program, but they’re very rare.

#49 Sail Away on 03.12.22 at 3:41 pm

#30 Ponzius Pilatus on 03.12.22 at 2:41 pm

Sailo, let me know when it’s a good time to by Costco shares.

———

Well, I’ll tell you when I’m buying, which means the time seems right to me.

You are, of course, entirely responsible for your own actions.

That said, my latest position of four miners averages +38% in 7 months, which is far better than TSX at +5% or SP500 at -2% over the same period.

#50 Søren Angst on 03.12.22 at 3:42 pm

#3 Flop…

Why I will not invest in Italia or the EU. *

All the way, U-S-A and Maple!

———–

* You should be fine. European markets bounced back today.

https://www.google.com/finance/

Click on Europe.

#51 Søren Angst on 03.12.22 at 4:00 pm

#10 Ryan Lewenza

You are correct about UAE.

ENI in Italia has already been to the UAE and other Middle East and African countries to negotiate for oil so as not to import any from Russia.

Also, I check oil EVERY DAY and speculation is waning. Have an ETF and ETN that are oil based and it has been palpable the last few days after UAE announcement.

——————–

GARTH.

Since I see you are monitoring the Blog (no tectonic & I agree) I would like to know where your tugboat is moored and better, it’s name (and registry flag if not Maple).

Nada tugboats in Lunenburg but plenty of tugboats in Halifax.

Let the bullets fly. Blood boil.

#52 I want some on 03.12.22 at 4:03 pm

DELETED (Anti-vaccine)

#53 Søren Angst on 03.12.22 at 4:26 pm

#49 Sail Away

What Miners are you in?

I’m sitting here looking at Cdn GDP for Mining and Metals which haven’t budged in $ from June to Dec 2021 and the S&P 500 Materials Sector…same story $ from Oct 2021 to Mar 2022.

You sure they are mining stocks?

My 1 oil ETF is up about 50% for the past 7 months, conservative – since that excludes dividends at 7.5% paid quarterly.

Another, a Maple ETF, is up only 13.5% for the past 7 months, conservative – since that excludes dividends of about 18% paid monthly.

#54 crowdedelevatorfartz on 03.12.22 at 4:38 pm

@#51 Soren.

I have it under good authority.
This is the Tug you seek.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/nova-scotia/theodore-tugboat-replica-sold-to-new-owner-in-ontario-1.5965102

Garth spends half the year in Ontario …coincidence?

#55 TalkingPie on 03.12.22 at 4:44 pm

#48 ulsterman on 03.12.22 at 3:41 pm
From the March 11th post:

I work in a high school placing kids on work experience and apprenticeships. We are falling over ourselves promoting trades to female students. Special presentations aimed at females, priority placements, quotas, scholarships etc. There’s just one problem that our woke society just has trouble getting their heads around. High school girls just don’t want to work in the trades. Yes you get the odd female in the auto service tech program, but they’re very rare.
********************************************

This is my experience in aviation, as well. There are special scholarships for aspiring female pilots. When a woman does decide to pursue the job, social media all but calls her a hero, whereas there’s relative indifference when a man does it. At flight schools themselves, the mostly young men who work and train there are more than willing to welcome and respect them. Women pilots sometimes even joke about how their gender is a golden ticket for getting hired at the airlines; all else being equal (and even sometimes when it’s not) HR much prefers to add some women to their overwhelmingly male roster. Job ad photos feature nearly 50% female representation in the flight deck, despite reality being anything but that.

That women are welcomed and encouraged to pursue these trades and be given an equal opportunity to succeed, if that’s what they want to do, is a positive development of the past few decades. However, the fact that we’re being force fed that men and women are statistically the same, and that the genders need to be equally represented in these traditionally male-dominated occupations, is most decidedly not my idea of things being fair, or even being in women’s best interest. Would you want your coworkers to question if you got your job by merit or simply because your ovaries help fill a quota? Would you want guidance counselors and HR people ramming a career path down your throat in which you have no interest?

Funnily enough, no one seems to have a problem with the fact that ramp attendants – you know, that difficult, unglamorous, underpaid job where you’re outside in all sorts of weather, lifting heavy bags, and get to pump sewage out of lavatories – are also overrepresented by men. No one is bothered that flight attendants are overrepresented by women.

#56 Ponzius Pilatus on 03.12.22 at 4:46 pm

After WWII,
The Americans always needed an enemy to demonstrate the superiority of their “system”.
This was accentuated and perputrated by Holywood.
First, is was the Nazis, then the Russians, then the Arabs.
I’m not a proponent of Putin, but when you see the hatred that has been directed by the West  toward Russia, that once was a partner of the allies,  I can see why they like a Bully, like Putin.
I’d like to remind the listeners of Reagan’s speech during a Religious Convention in 1983, where he called Russia”The evil Empire”.
That Ukraine is on the receiving end of Putin’s bullying is unfortunate, but that’s just the reality on  that region.
Just ask the Poles.
Well, I hope that the situation in East Europe resolves itself soon, that we all can focus on the “Evil Chinese Empire” again.
Because that’s what this is all about, IMO.
Russia is no threat to America’s hegenomy.
China is.

#57 Søren Angst on 03.12.22 at 4:51 pm

#49 Sail Away

PS:

Hopefully not Nickel.

All leveraged ETFs on Nickel down. Recent price spike was due to a Chinese tycoon’s shorts (Xiang Guangda).

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-03-08/chinese-tycoon-behind-big-nickel-short-faces-billions-in-losses

LME Closing Price contracts flat, slightly down. Closing prices to Aug 2022 definitely down. $100K/tonne back to < $50k/tonne.

https://www.lme.com/en/metals/non-ferrous/lme-nickel#Trading+day+summary

—————–

Ryan.

Why I was saying Commodities wait and see. Lot's of speculation still out there. Looking at Europe speculative, leveraged ETFs etc. Losers and almost ALL are Commodities.

https://www.google.com/finance/markets/losers

#58 Flop… on 03.12.22 at 4:53 pm

I’ll tie a bow on a couple of things.

Just got back from the nearby ethnic enclave of South Hill in Vancouver.

Only been a couple of days but every staff member in the 4 stores I visited was wearing a mask, and the same amount as previous were wearing them on Fraser Street.

Second point, yeah buying land up north is never going to happen, it’s been probably 10 years since our trip to the Yukon and my wife is still traumatized by having her face eaten by swarms of mosquitoes that resembled drones.

If I was to ever buy a recreational property in B.C I wouldn’t look North, I would look East. The Kootenays to be precise, man that’s some pretty country coming from a guy that’s seen a lot of territory for his age.

I’ve got some friends who couldn’t visit their cabins in Washington State because of the Covid restrictions, that would have been annoying, especially when most of them bought them to get away from humans in the first place.

If I was living in Southern Alberta and was over the B.C thing, the first place I would look for a place is Northern Idaho.

Mrs Flop and I spent nearly 3 weeks exploring Idaho once on the way back from a Yellowstone/Grand Tetons/Salt Lake City trip, original plan was to just blast through the bottom on the interstate but I kept seeing these travel brochures that looked enticing and I decided to give it a try.

Idaho gets a ribbing as just potato fields and it can’t complete with Washington, Wyoming and Montana on the tourist front the gap is closer than many would think.

A former work colleague of my wife has been going to Priest Lake, up in the Idaho Panhandle for roughly 30 years for an annual family catch-up for a week or so, we went to visit them, I thought I was I Southwestern B.C

https://visitnorthidaho.com/community/priest-lake-idaho/

Yeah, there’s the Hemingway stigma to get over since he blew his brains out in Idaho, but he was a worldly man so maybe that was just a backhanded compliment…

M47BC

#59 Stock Market on 03.12.22 at 5:06 pm

Stock Market is a bubble and will crash by 80%. It is just getting started just like World War 3 is getting started. S&P will be 1600 in a few months.

#60 Philco on 03.12.22 at 5:19 pm

Thousands of posts bashing Trump for years here.
I post 1 thing to prove there are real idiots in charge now. I waited my turn to prove what was coming and would make Trump look like a real leader in comparison and ya don’t post it?! LOL

Libellous posts not published on this blog. – Garth

#61 Proud Truck Driver on 03.12.22 at 5:21 pm

#56 Ponzius Pilatus on 03.12.22 at 4:46 pm

Well, I hope that the situation in East Europe resolves itself soon, that we all can focus on the “Evil Chinese Empire” again.
_____________________________

Ponzie, well said, even with a bitter sarcasm.

I am rubbing my both palms excitedly for this day to come!

Hopefully when this day comes, the almighty U.S.A and its so called allies do not hide behind those poor little ones (be it South Korea, Japan, Taiwan, Vietnam, India).

Instead of proxy war, let’s have a real one. That will settle a lot of scores!

#62 Summertime on 03.12.22 at 5:53 pm

Let’s be honest for once.

The biggest part of the latest GDP ‘gains’ is due to excessive monetization of new debt and the underreported inflation due to the really bad and dishonest, manipulated statistics.

If we had a measure that excludes new debt from the equation and we reported inflation honestly, as in the 80-es the picture could have been very different.

The rise in prices in the last 2 years – housing – 25 – 30 % yearly, the currently exploding commodity prices – energy, food, materials, establish the bases of a claim of inflation of at least 15-20 %.

If the official inflation is understated at least by factor of 2 it could turn out that we have no growth at all but
all the growth is in fact underreported inflation.

The consumption is and will most definitely keep shrinking based on the rising commodity prices.

The danger in the whole manipulation of statistics and the continuation of pretend and extent very lose monetary policies is that we will keep going on the wrong path of bad monetary policies while being delusional about the impact from it.

To fix a problem we need to recognize it first and we firmly refuse to do that.

The joke of rates at 0.5 % Clearly clearly shows that.

Inflation is increasing one way or another, it was said first to be transitory which was another attempt to sell a cheap lie, now it is recognized as it is here to stay and it is only accelerating.

Positive real interest rates translates into double digits given the current situation. Keeping rates at sub 1 % instead of double digits only accelerates the inflation.

Zoltan Pozsar from Credit Suisse stated these days that we are witnessing the birth of a new commodity based monetary system that threatens the current monetary order:

https://www.forbes.com/sites/danrunkevicius/2022/03/10/after-this-war-is-over-money-will-never-be-the-same-what-credit-suisses-shocking-prediction-means-for-bitcoin-and-crypto-prices/?sh=12a794466c25

However it was interpreted as good news for the cryptos which was a wrong read.

Nobody has printed out their way to prosperity and the willingness of other new emerging entities on the world stage to support huge deficits and idiotic monetary policies on world scale is growing thin.

As to what will be the world’s reserve currency 80-100 years from now – at the time of the grandchildren of our children, it most certainly will be something very different from what we have now.

The energy is disappearing fast and our ignorance will not change that.

In short term the idiotic monetary policies with ultra lose negative real interest rates will keep fueling the inflation, all credit derivatives and inflation protected assets, including commodities will further boom and we will report it as ‘growth’ while in reality growing poorer.

We will speak about prices stabilization when we see strongly positive real interest rates that could happen at price levels 3-5 times from current while rates stay low, close to zero for a very long time.

Central bankers need to invent new lying techniques as their current are growing increasingly pathetic.

As for the renters, savers, recipients of ‘indexed’ benefits, they are doomed.

Higher food and energy prices will absolutely kill other consumption and many services as the income can not keep with it.

The ‘pensions’ will soon be enough for ‘a bread a day’
on the streets (as the rent + utilities for 1 bedder in GTA already surpasses maxed CPP and OAS for 2 people).

#63 Philco on 03.12.22 at 5:57 pm

Libellous posts not published on this blog. – Garth

Ya I re-read it after launch and it was unfair. I’m always ok with being wrong unlike many.
You know A LOT stuff but not all knowing respectfully.
You obviously thought Mr T was an idiot.
Watch out for those polished Politicians their the dangerous ones.
Ask Ralf Klein. too late

I’m just appalled by leadership these days.
So I’ll relink just proving how bad it is.
I wish the re was a women in charge with integrity and a brain.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oFwYzkhzynU

#64 crowdedelevatorfartz on 03.12.22 at 6:18 pm

@#55 talking
” Would you want guidance counselors and HR people ramming a career path down your throat in which you have no interest?”

+++

In the early 90’s I worked at a building that had a large engineering firm.
95%of the engineers were men.
The occasional gal would apply and get hired.

The HR Dept was ecstatic because the gender parity ideas were becoming mainstream.
When an engineering gal was poached by another firm or left on Maternity leave and never came back…HR was suicidal.

Fed Ex had an interesting hiring policy way back in the 80’s and 90’s.
Their work force is pretty evenly divided between men and women.
A friend who had worked at Fed Ex for years pointed it out to me one day.
They predominantly hired gay women rather than straight women.
“Why?” , I asked.
“They don’t take mat leave.”

#65 Barb on 03.12.22 at 6:29 pm

Putin threatening to seize assets:

https://www.ctvnews.ca/business/as-companies-leave-russia-their-assets-could-be-seized-1.5816781

#66 crowdedelevatorfartz on 03.12.22 at 6:29 pm

@#56 Ponzies pal Putin
“That Ukraine is on the receiving end of Putin’s bullying is unfortunate, but that’s just the reality on that region.”

+++
Your insipid appeasement reminds me of Neville Chamberland’s “peace in our time” declaration as Hitler prepared for the invasion of Poland.

Yeah I’d say 2 million refugees and thousands of dead civilians in two weeks ranks right up there with “bullying”.

The man is a murderous dictator who has lied, cheated, killed and stolen his way to the top of the corruption heap.
Whats a few thousand more dead civilians on top of his pile of gold.
The blood washes off when you have no conscience.

AND he has warned the West not to get involved or he may use Nukes.
Nuclear bombs as a threat.
That goes way beyond “bullying”.

He’s hanging on to power to protect his $70 billion dollars in stolen loot.
Plus he knows the minute he tried to step down the next brutal Russian dictator would have him shot.

Putin is an evil monster who has painted himself into a corner like a vicious rat and he deserves everything…everything…… that’s coming his way.

China’s another story yet to be told.

#67 crowdedelevatorfartz on 03.12.22 at 6:31 pm

I was in two Safeway grocery stores today.
24 hours after the mask restrictions were lifted in BC.
95% of the customers were still wearing their masks.

Well trained.

#68 Sail Away on 03.12.22 at 6:47 pm

#53 Søren Angst on 03.12.22 at 4:26 pm
#49 Sail Away

What Miners are you in?

———-

Here you go: post from Aug 19:

#113 Sail Away on 08.19.21 at 3:19 pm
BHP, Vale, Labrador Iron and Nutrien for me.

*****

Respectively, these four have gained: 10%, 5%, 22%, 75% plus average 11% dividend, most of which has been paid out. Another poster picked up ETF XBM at the same time, which has returned a near-identical result to date.

#69 Ed on 03.12.22 at 6:47 pm

I was a general contractor for over 30 years…in that time we employed countless apprentices but few were female.
Most females never returned after 1st year school… a few continued on to become journeymen…mostly electricians, some plumbers, few carpenters, iron workers etc.

As a whole they pretty much were mostly worthless…hate to say it.

I doubt anything has changed in the last 13 years since I sold my business.

#70 Retired in Kelowna on 03.12.22 at 6:52 pm

Thank you Ryan. Great Column. I love the photo of you with your boys at the Support Ukraine Event. Good on you for taking them to that event.

#71 Blobby on 03.12.22 at 6:55 pm

#63 Philco on 03.12.22 at 5:57 pm

I tried to read your incoherent nonsense. I should’ve just saved myself the bother and noticed you’d posted a link to fox.. lol.

Say no more.

#72 Dr V on 03.12.22 at 7:08 pm

65 Barb – That link explains a lot. Everyone should read it
to get a better understanding of the situation.

#73 Michael in-north-york on 03.12.22 at 8:01 pm

#65 Barb on 03.12.22 at 6:29 pm

Putin threatening to seize assets:

https://www.ctvnews.ca/business/as-companies-leave-russia-their-assets-could-be-seized-1.5816781
===

The U.S. and U.K. have frozen billions of the Russian government’s assets. Companies whose property gets seized, will sue and will get paid from those assets.

Essentially, the way for those companies to sell their property in Russia to the Russian government at a pre-war price, and avoid the losses.

#74 Sail Away on 03.12.22 at 8:16 pm

Hmmm… think we’ll stick with the pack donkey or llama instead of a camel…

https://www.msn.com/en-ca/news/us/camel-kills-two-men-after-escaping-tennessee-petting-zoo/ar-AAUYN5f?ocid=msedgntp

#75 Okotoksmatt on 03.12.22 at 8:23 pm

Things are looking good for Alberta and Sask. After six years of attack by the green extremists of the Liberal party, our ethical oil and gas is in demand. I remember when they used to tell us the three pipelines and multiple LNG projects were cancelled due to low prices and not their bad policy. Russia boomed, Canada suffered. Now oil, gas, wheat, coal, potash, ammonia and nitrates and rising in price and we will boom. Alberta will have a $20 billion plus surplus this year.
One large pipeline can generate more revenue than Nova Scotia’s $40 billion annual GDP.
I am looking for an apology from the “oil is dead” crowd.

#76 Ustabe on 03.12.22 at 8:28 pm

#44 KLNR on 03.12.22 at 3:28 pm

Too many of our regular participants think they post like Yoda but come across as Jabba, eh?

I don’t keep lists so I’m certain I’ll leave something important out but:

Posts beseeching Garth to ban another poster, posts complaining that no one commiserated with a job loss, posts whining about a dog getting a nip on the trail, any and all of the “look at how much money I have” posts.

No wonder the Conservative Party of Canada can’t find a decent leader if this type of thought process represents and informs the CPC.

Whiny, self-serving, self centered and mad…not a good look.

I will admit, though, that I’m a bit impressed with how many of our former infectious disease experts also have authenticity on the political aspects of Easter Europe. Still leaves me wondering that with so many subject matter experts on so many aspects of life why only problems get discussed, why no one seems able to come up with a workable solution. To anything it would seem.

Except for those GIC investor bots that appear from time to time.

#77 neptunian on 03.12.22 at 8:40 pm

I believe rates will not high enough to lower the inflation, high inflation will stay for while, and RE is safe. So hedging against inflation should be the focus of the investment strategy.

We will see.

#78 Observer on 03.12.22 at 9:03 pm

#64 CEF

They predominantly hired gay women rather than straight women.
“Why?” , I asked.
“They don’t take mat leave.”

^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^
Not true. Gay women can and do have babies.

#79 Nonplused on 03.12.22 at 9:38 pm

Like it or not, money is dying:

https://mishtalk.com/economics/lme-violates-number-one-cardinal-rule-never-cancel-trades

https://mishtalk.com/economics/nancy-pelosi-hoot-of-the-day-government-spending-reduces-debt

To smize our situation, I would point out that even with the planned / forecast rate increases, real interest rates are even more negative than they were before the tightening cycle began. Unless something extremely unlikely happens with fiscal policy or oil prices they are likely to remain so. You just can’t fight 7% inflation with 0.25% rate hikes.

And $130 oil doesn’t help. But oil will come down. Unfortunately in only one of two ways: The Ukraine crisis will be resolved to everyone’s satisfaction and sanctions on Russia will go away (unlikely), or demand destruction will occur (recession, probably a deep one).

Time to buy all the things. Except bonds. And GIC’s. Don’t buy GIC’s.

#80 Ponzius Pilatus on 03.12.22 at 9:45 pm

#78 Observer on 03.12.22 at 9:03 pm
#64 CEF

They predominantly hired gay women rather than straight women.
“Why?” , I asked.
“They don’t take mat leave.”

^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^
Not true. Gay women can and do have babies.
———————
Good job, Observer

#81 crowdedelevatorfartz on 03.12.22 at 9:50 pm

@#72 Brilliant observer
“Not true. Gay women can and do have babies.”
+++

Uhhhh yeah….
I realize that.
But thanks for splitting hairs and pointing out the Obvious)
I’m quite sure that the actuarial numbers of gay vs hetero women taking “maternity leave” ….leans heavily towards the hetero side of the baby scale.
Either way.
I’m sure Fed Ex saved a ton o money not constantly losing/ training new staff to mat leave.

#82 crowdedelevatorfartz on 03.12.22 at 9:51 pm

@#74 Sail Away

“Killed by a Camel” in the States …….used to mean cigarettes….

#83 Greg on 03.12.22 at 9:58 pm

“expect more volatility in the short-term followed by a big economic and market recovery as this terrible period comes to an end.”

At least this is an optimistic outlook. Was getting tired of all those Doomy N Gloomy predictions.

#84 Bezengy on 03.12.22 at 10:12 pm

#48 ulsterman on 03.12.22 at 3:41 pm
From the March 11th post:

#66 Bezengy on 03.11.22 at 6:17 pm

Girls at not encouraged to enter the trades, and that’s a shame. If you don’t believe me call the local high school and ask how many girls are taking wood working or automotive class.

I work in a high school placing kids on work experience and apprenticeships. We are falling over ourselves promoting trades to female students. Special presentations aimed at females, priority placements, quotas, scholarships etc. There’s just one problem that our woke society just has trouble getting their heads around. High school girls just don’t want to work in the trades. Yes you get the odd female in the auto service tech program, but they’re very rare.

————–

I applaud your efforts to encourage our young to think about a career in the trades. Keep up the fight. My experience comes from my work with Rotary. I can tell you when I was trying to promote the trades my efforts were met with resistance. I couldn’t even get a poster promoting trades for women hung on the wall at our local schools. As I recall though there were plenty of “Shakespeare” posters taking up space. I remember one VP stating the school’s intention was to try to develop literate carpenters. Industry wasn’t interested in helping either, a tour of any industrial site was met with a “no can do sorry”. I’m not just blaming the education system here. In my hometown there are plenty of well paid mining jobs that could be filled by either men or women, like metallurgy, stationary engineering, electrical, maintenance, etc, all that pay over $100k per year, and yet parents only hope and advice for their children is that they never work at the mine. When I did meet a woman working in the mine, who undoubtedly grew up elsewhere, and asked how they ended up there, I usually heard a story about them working with their father in the garage or something similar, and they just kind of enjoyed fixing or making stuff work, and they were naturally good at it. Like I mentioned if my first post, you don’t necessary take an automotive course with the hope of becoming a mechanic, but hopefully will learn that to fix a problem you first must understand how the thing works in the first place. It’s a life skill. That’s what folks need to understand.

#85 Doug t on 03.12.22 at 10:15 pm

Russia and China going for the gold medal in several years – stop the growth of the west and take control of the world or go down trying – it’s now or never for them as the west is doing exactly the same to them lol – it’s a race to the finish = KABOOM

#86 T on 03.12.22 at 10:23 pm

#67 crowdedelevatorfartz on 03.12.22 at 6:31 pm
I was in two Safeway grocery stores today.
24 hours after the mask restrictions were lifted in BC.
95% of the customers were still wearing their masks.

Well trained.

—————

Considerate.

#87 Alexei on 03.12.22 at 10:28 pm

Being half Russian half Ukrainian definitely helps to see the bigger picture. What the collective West is missing entirely is that Putin is in fact the Russian people. The humans can definitely survive without Iphones and trips to French Riviera. Try to survive without electricity, bread and heat in the winter. I agree with Ryan, North America will weather the storm, not sure about Europe. Russia has not even shown yet to the economic war. The global changes will be tectonic

#88 bdwy on 03.12.22 at 11:06 pm

I’m sure Fed Ex saved a ton o money not constantly losing/ training new staff to mat leave.

————
can confirm. long term tennant was a fed ex driver, a bit of a mechanic and a heck of a softball player. 2 moms, no kids.
——-

ustabe -so sorry all posts here don’t please you. maybe it’s you.

—————–
I am looking for an apology from the “oil is dead” crowd.
…/…
ha ha , you’ll be waiting a while….

I got mine. 100% on a huge oil bet, 30% of everything. (the other is brk)

imagine if you got salios mining returns on your entire portfolio. it’s like that. best year ever here.

the idiot greenies drove me firmly into the arms of big oil, and it’s covered my gas bill for 2 lifetimes. I will only run v8’s in their honour as long as i’m alive ;)

#89 Tom from Mississauga on 03.12.22 at 11:31 pm

Saying Putin is losing or being beaten is silly unless you know what his objectives are. If it’s simply taking his time destroying Ukraine and filling the EU with hungry migrants…

The concern I have is that diesel fuel will be the next global supply issue. Hopefully EU and NA will have enough to fertilize and sow grain this spring.

#90 DON on 03.12.22 at 11:36 pm

#77 neptunian on 03.12.22 at 8:40 pm
I believe rates will not high enough to lower the inflation, high inflation will stay for while, and RE is safe. So hedging against inflation should be the focus of the investment strategy.

We will see.
****************

If inflation keeps on going, families will cut back on spending. It is already happening families and individuals are stretched. It is being over shadowed by the Ukraine crisis. There are headlines all over the internet about folks running into hard times. Wages increases are not uniform or keeping up for that matter. 5% inflation lmao. Higher gas prices weren’t even factored in the recent US numbers.

I betcha gas prices go back down to $1.26 a litre in a month. ha ha ha yah right!

#91 Ryan Lewenza on 03.12.22 at 11:46 pm

Stock Market “ Stock Market is a bubble and will crash by 80%. It is just getting started just like World War 3 is getting started. S&P will be 1600 in a few months.”

Want to put a bet on it? Sure markets could drop further in the short term but where do you come up with 80%?Why would it drop as much as it did in the Great Depression? These doomsday predictions never materialize. – Ryan L

#92 the Jaguar on 03.13.22 at 12:29 am

@#87 Alexei on 03.12.22 at 10:28 pm
Being half Russian half Ukrainian definitely helps to see the bigger picture. What the collective West is missing entirely is that Putin is in fact the Russian people. The humans can definitely survive without Iphones and trips to French Riviera. Try to survive without electricity, bread and heat in the winter. I agree with Ryan, North America will weather the storm, not sure about Europe. Russia has not even shown yet to the economic war. The global changes will be tectonic+++++++++++++

Agree completely Alexei. It isn’t just the anti Russian propoganda machine in the media. Most people in north america have no clue about what has gone on in Ukraine since 2014 to cause this crisis. An informed analysis for public consumption has been absent.
Worse, it has actually been censored. Russia could have taken out Ukraine in one afternoon if that was the objective. But it isn’t, nor is its occupation.

The longer term impacts will be far greater than what is going on in Ukraine. The old economic model is under siege. Just as Covid presented as an ‘accelerant’ to world wide economic changes, so too will this ‘dust up’ in Ukraine. Fasten your seatbelts.

These ‘sanctions from hell’, demonizing a population of 144 million + people, with such shenanigans such as the Mueller Report ( The report concluded that the investigation “did not establish that members of the Trump campaign conspired or coordinated with the Russian government in its election interference activities”. ), etc. For years now. On and on. So incredibly disrespectful. Beyond the pale.

Careful what you wish for lazy thinkers, for you are about to get it. That head turning away from the west towards China, India, etc., is doing so precisely because of actions undertaken by the west.

All eyes of the world are on behaviours undertaken by the west when it doesn’t ‘get its way’. The world is bigger than the west, and it has been playing close attention. Everything you think you know and understand and feel is ‘untouchable’ in the post WW2 period is about to change.

By coincidence it all occurs during a steep decline in moral values and overall societal decay. Govern yourselves accordingly. Financially and otherwise.

#93 Sail Away on 03.13.22 at 12:32 am

#88 bdwy on 03.12.22 at 11:06 pm

I got mine. 100% on a huge oil bet, 30% of everything. (the other is brk)

———-

Congrats! Berkshire is also buying oil right now- specifically Occidental after Icahn’s exit.

#94 Sail Away on 03.13.22 at 12:47 am

#76 Ustabe on 03.12.22 at 8:28 pm

Posts beseeching Garth to ban another poster, posts complaining that no one commiserated with a job loss, posts whining about a dog getting a nip on the trail, any and all of the “look at how much money I have” posts.

No wonder the Conservative Party of Canada can’t find a decent leader if this type of thought process represents and informs the CPC.

Whiny, self-serving, self centered and mad…not a good look.

———–

Terrible, U. Just terrible. And that’s not all: here’s Colin Jost from Saturday night live mocking your family:

https://www.narcity.com/snl-used-60-ft-rogue-wave-coast-bc-opportunity-troll-canada

#95 Moses71 on 03.13.22 at 1:10 am

“The US unemployment rate fell to 3.8% last month, the lowest level seen since Q4/19 of 3.6%, just before Covid-19 hit. So, the US economy is back to the historic low unemployment rates experienced under ex-President Trump. That’s a pretty impressive feat and speaks to the strength of the US economy. Similarly, Canada’s unemployment rate is at 5%, again one of the lowest levels seen in decades…”
Obvious you mention Trump in the US economy history in the pandemic, but no mention of Trudeau in the new Canadian numbers. People see through this

#96 Sally Smores on 03.13.22 at 1:34 am

I see it as all too convenient that Covid Tyranny is being crushed by an active citizenry. We wanted to cooperate but governments ( some exceptionally dictatorial and facist) turned out concern into their dreams of total control. The protests in EU were effective, the brave truckers in Canada stood down a dictator and his Putin Lite application of Martial Law, and the threat I’d marching on Washington scared the far left Democrats into ‘suddenly’ backing down. Isn’t it a coincidence that polls had the facists on the run and freedom is blossoming. No thanks to the dictatorship loving leader of the Liberal Party .

Investing? I think we’re one headline away from a rip higher. As you say Ryan, fundamentals are solid. Justin-flation is not going away. That may actually spur spending. Canadian retail might benefit. A few select REITs are reflecting this. Banks certainly, especially those with greatest exposure to the US. Energy, that’s a no-brainer. The Fairy Dust climate crazies might want an abrupt separation from fossil fuel but the technology hasn’t been invented yet to make that overnight dream come true. Energy is in an extreme shortfall in supply. I expect that to become exacerbated by the twin force of Bidens fight against base power fuel. Another no-brainer. Sugar stocks popped. Fertilizers have doubled. In fact things look better on the other side of the headlines and double speak gaslighting by our leaders policy. And…I think we’ll hear of some excuse by Trudeau that’s he’ll step down this year end. That will create a boom in Canada as people look towards a more positive leadership.

#97 bdwy on 03.13.22 at 1:49 am

#90 DON on 03.12.22 at 11:36 pm
If inflation keeps on going
………………..
it’s a mathematical certainty.

——————————————
#87 Alexei on 03.12.22 at 10:28 pm
Being half Russian half Ukrainian definitely helps to see the bigger picture. What the collective West is missing entirely is that Putin is in fact the Russian people. The humans can definitely survive without Iphones and trips to French Riviera. Try to survive without electricity, bread and heat in the winter. I agree with Ryan, North America will weather the storm, not sure about Europe. Russia has not even shown yet to the economic war. The global changes will be tectonic.
——————————————
wow , that is scary. i think the food part is easy/easier.
the lights and heat? they better pray for lots of wind. if only we could help. maybe PM fancy socks can provide turbine driving hot air. don’t those old coal plants still work?

—————–
#67 crowdedelevatorfartz on 03.12.22 at 6:31 pm
95% of the customers were still wearing their masks.

Well trained.
—————
Considerate.
//////////////////

same here 95% at local safeway. mostly trained i’d guess. are the peeps still wearing one alone in their car being considerate? god bless them though , may they grow brave, esp the cute gals.

Last week i travelled back in time a half century to the mind blowing, ultra stuffed with stock, western canadian hub for all things hobby (model railroad being the only hobby worthy of true men, apparently) .By the lowes on grandview hwy. It seems they have a full time guy who just repairs model train cars. Much of the stock looked to have been 50 years in place. The few wise old-coot staff even longer. these 80+yo guys were so daring and cavalier as to let me in without a mask, or even wear one themselves! There are some pockets of sanity out there.
—————
buy all the things.

agreed. mostly

commodities gold and RE were the place to be in the 70’s stagflation, no?

equities didn’t do so well after 72.

currently looking at bigger 2-3bd condos in cdmx – 300-400k. taxes and condo fees approaching zero. perfect weather in the winter every day. (we got a bit bored at the beach) young, vibrant safe global megacity. smog and pollution problems seem a thing of the past.
Is that a thing to buy?

#98 Gravy Train on 03.13.22 at 6:17 am

#76 Ustabe on 03.12.22 at 8:28 pm
#44 KLNR on 03.12.22 at 3:28 pm
Too many of our regular participants think they post like Yoda but come across as Jabba, eh?

And they root for Darth Vader, not Luke Skywalker. :(

#99 Joe Lalonde on 03.13.22 at 6:57 am

Since China isn’t being monetarily sanctioned…

https://www.rt.com/business/551718-vtb-yuan-deposit-dollar-sanctions/

Pretty smart move by Russia and keeping they’re economy flowing with very little pain by the Economic Devastation Strategy of United States.

Still weakening the US Dollar as they don’t go through changing to US funds in Reserve Currency Status in trade anymore and being set FREE…fly away little buddies, fly away…

 Also Saudi Arabian oil is building a new huge fuel refinery in China.

#100 You're like Seinfeld on 03.13.22 at 8:19 am

#76 Ustabe on 03.12.22 at 8:28 pm
#44 KLNR on 03.12.22 at 3:28 pm

Too many of our regular participants think they post like Yoda but come across as Jabba, eh?

I don’t keep lists so I’m certain I’ll leave something important out but:

Posts beseeching Garth to ban another poster, posts complaining that no one commiserated with a job loss, posts whining about a dog getting a nip on the trail, any and all of the “look at how much money I have” posts.

No wonder the Conservative Party of Canada can’t find a decent leader if this type of thought process represents and informs the CPC.

Whiny, self-serving, self centered and mad…not a good look.

I will admit, though, that I’m a bit impressed with how many of our former infectious disease experts also have authenticity on the political aspects of Easter Europe. Still leaves me wondering that with so many subject matter experts on so many aspects of life why only problems get discussed, why no one seems able to come up with a workable solution. To anything it would seem.

Except for those GIC investor bots that appear from time to time.

=============================================

Hopelessly out of date and endless “posts about nothing”.

Thanks for keeping everyone informed with the curmudgeon’s perspective, sometimes Ponzi misses a couple things.

#101 crowdedelevatorfartz on 03.13.22 at 8:58 am

@#99 Joe Lalonde
“Pretty smart move by Russia and keeping they’re economy flowing ..”

+++++

Like they had a choice?

I wouldnt say embracing Chinese credit cards after Visa and Mastercard have cut you off is ….smart.

https://ca.movies.yahoo.com/cashless-flightless-russian-tourists-stuck-131909054.html

It will drive more people to use their phone to pay.

#102 crowdedelevatorfartz on 03.13.22 at 9:21 am

@#69 ed
“….a few continued on to become journeymen…mostly electricians, some plumbers, few carpenters, iron workers etc.”

+++
On the jobsites I see quite a few female electricians, a few painters, a few plumbers, several welders and in 10 years….one carpenter.
I think they gravitate towards the trades jobs with less heavy lifting.
After 40 years of working inside/outside…. their bodies will be just as beat as the rest of us.
The equality of age.
They seemed good at their jobs.
No better or worse than the guys around them.
The language on the jobsites was a bit “cleaner” when they’re around but that reverts back to the gutter when they’re out of earshot..

#103 Joe Lalonde on 03.13.22 at 9:37 am

In case you missed it yesterday…
Big boys with big toys leaving for China and snubbing the US.

https://sputniknews.com/20220310/whos-the-pariah-after-snubbing-biden-saudi-aramco-agrees-to-build-massive-refinery-in-china-1093759364.html

Paul

“Saudi Aramco, the Saudi Arabian state oil company, announced on Thursday it would help build a massive new refining facility in northeastern China.”
I suppose that sounds like “Winning” to Biden & Trudeau.
Now considering that Saudi Aramco, Petro China, and China Petroleum are the top 3 largest oil companies in the world by profits.

#104 Ryan Lewenza on 03.13.22 at 9:58 am

Moses71 “Obvious you mention Trump in the US economy history in the pandemic, but no mention of Trudeau in the new Canadian numbers. People see through this.”

That was more of a shoutout to Biden who is getting hammered on the economy/inflation rather than a dig to Trudeau. That said, I give plenty of digs to Trudeau for his poor handling of our O&G sector, record spending and deficits, poor infrastructure spending record etc. I’m all about equality when ripping on our poor and feckless leaders. – Ryan L

#105 Phylis on 03.13.22 at 10:02 am

Don’t forget to adjust consumer spending for inflation! ;)
And just for fun, consumer price reporting from down low, went shopping for groceries in the sunny south, phew wee, 20% higher than at home. And that’s with being selective.

#106 Dharma Bum on 03.13.22 at 10:03 am

#17 Flop

I once again have to witness people walk around this city with that predisposed smug grin on their faces…
———————————————————————————————————–

It’s called: “Trudeau Face”.

#107 Ryan Lewenza on 03.13.22 at 10:08 am

Retired in Kelowna “ Thank you Ryan. Great Column. I love the photo of you with your boys at the Support Ukraine Event. Good on you for taking them to that event.”

Thank you! Like my father did with us I’m trying stress the importance of our Ukrainian roots and heritage. While my boys are young they need to know what’s happening in Ukraine and that terrible people like Putin exist in this world. – Ryan L

#108 Ryan Lewenza on 03.13.22 at 10:13 am

Dave “Any chance BoC will do a .5% interest rate hike next month to fight inflation?”

It’s possible but unlikely. The BoC governor said this is on the table but I think they stick with tradition and keep hiking 25 bps so as not to shock the markets. – Ryan L

#109 I don’t know on 03.13.22 at 10:15 am

92 the Jaguar on 03.13.22 at 12:29

And who are you to say that people in the west do not know the whole story? Are you a high level intelligence officer? Do you know everyone’s views? Their background? Their story? Probably not.

It’s ironic that you accuse western media of being biased when Russia is drifting into an actual autocracy, and the contrast has never been more clear.

The media may get some things wrong, but this is not one of them.

As for the narrative being pushed that the west is losing its standing, the opposite is occurring actually.

IDK

#110 Phylis on 03.13.22 at 10:32 am

Oh, and opec will open the taps to maintain high prices, not to lower them. Kinda like a decrease in inflation will not lower prices.

#111 crowdedelevatorfartz on 03.13.22 at 10:34 am

@#103 Smokin Joe
“Now considering that Saudi Aramco, Petro China, and China Petroleum are the top 3 largest oil companies in the world by profits.”

++++
Saudi Arabia…that bastion of green energy and democracy…

https://nypost.com/2022/03/12/saudi-arabia-executes-81-in-its-largest-mass-execution/

As the rest of the world goes….electric.

P.S.
How many coal fired electric generation plants does China build every year?

https://www.canadianenergycentre.ca/commentary-china-is-building-184-coal-plants-guess-what-that-will-do-to-carbon-emissions/

Perhaps when this summer’s choking sand storms engulf Beijing for weeks blocking out the sun…..they might get it.
But I doubt it.

#112 Bdwy on 03.13.22 at 10:52 am

Kamala Harris: “The United States stands firmly with the Ukrainian people in defense of the NATO alliance.”

Ukraine is not part of NATO.
This is the vice president of the usa .
Scary. But hey, no mean tweets!!!

#113 Sail Away on 03.13.22 at 11:09 am

It is fascinating that plants and trees are actually and literally created from air- specifically carbon stripped from air. Magical. Similarly magical to conjuring electricity from nothingness.

Here’s Richard Feynman:

https://www.npr.org/sections/krulwich/2012/09/25/161753383/trees-come-from-out-of-the-air-says-nobel-laureate-richard-feynman-really

#114 millmech on 03.13.22 at 11:27 am

#111 CEF
BC will be exporting even more coal to China all the while adding more carbon taxes and green fees. Once the pipelines for oil to China from Russia are complete watch them flex as not restrained by any oil embargo.
https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/China-To-Expand-Coal-Use-As-It-Prioritizes-Energy-Security.html

#115 millmech on 03.13.22 at 11:45 am

#37
They will do very well, Russia is just another piece of the puzzle as China will keep expanding their influence in Africa for the oil and mineral supplies, South America for oil as well.
The west will soon find itself being squeezed by China as their influence wanes in the world.

#116 Philco on 03.13.22 at 11:53 am

#85 Doug t on 03.12.22 at 10:15 pm
==================
Their 10 fold smarter than the WEAK Wests leaders.
One can see where we are going from there.
Doom Boom

#117 Shawn on 03.13.22 at 12:13 pm

Corporate Profits to Continue to Grow faster than Nominal GDP

Moving to the fundamentals, earnings for the S&P 500 and TSX are set to rise roughly 15% this year based on current estimates.

************************************
That would be great for stock markets. But the S&P 500 earnings have grown at a far higher rate than nominal GDP for a long time now. Can that continue? Corporate profits become an ever larger share of GDP? Lower share for wages? or what component is getting lower?

#118 Shawn on 03.13.22 at 12:23 pm

Alberta is BACK!!

#75 Okotoksmatt on 03.12.22 at 8:23 pm said:

Things are looking good for Alberta and Sask. After six years of attack by the green extremists of the Liberal party, our ethical oil and gas is in demand.

******************************
I count 7 lean years 2014 through 2020

Now are we in year 2 of 7 fat years? I think maybe so…

Fareed Zacharias this morning mentioned how oil producing countries such as Saudi Arabia, Qatar and the United Arab Emirates will accumulate massive capital due to high oil prices. Include Alberta on that list.

Alberta will be able to buy Quebec if it wants to. Well not really but our Sovereign wealth fund will be able to buy up companies and buildings in the rest of Canada.

It’s not to late to move to Alberta.

Maybe even Garth will open an office here.

But I thought Garth dropped a hint a couple months ago about his most recent business start-up which sounded like post-Turner Investments but I may have read that wrong.

#119 dragonfly58 on 03.13.22 at 12:25 pm

Rather than saying “the rest of the world is going electric” , I think ” the rest of the world is contemplating going electric” is much closer to the truth.

#120 the Jaguar on 03.13.22 at 12:29 pm

@#109 I don’t know on 03.13.22 at 10:15 am
It’s not always what the media reports, but what they do not report.

There used to be something called ‘balanced reporting’, but we are hearing very little about the history of events that led to this conflict and American involvement in creating it. And some views are being suppressed. Or maybe there is another reason documentaries like Oliver Stone’s Ukraine on Fire keeps getting pulled from You Tube, etc.
Or maybe you believe 39 pro Russian demonstrators were not burned alive in the House of Trade Union building in Odessa? Or that Ukrainian troops and right wing groups have been shelling and killing people in eastern Ukraine for the past 8 years. Or that western Ukraine voted to repeal the right of eastern Ukraine to declare Russian as their official language. Wonder how that would go down similarly in say…Quebec?
The information coming out surrounding those Bio Labs from government officials in the US has been highly contradictory. They can’t get their story straight it seems.
I’m not in any ‘camp’ and I’m grateful I live under the flag of a country where freedom of expression of opposing views is still held in some regard. I happen to agree with what scholars like John Mearsheimer has to say about the situation, and don’t see a balanced view being presented.
Oh, and no.. I am not a ‘high level intelligence officer’. My job is way harder than that.

I find your tacit approval of the Russian aggression unsettling. Please move on to other topics. – Garth

#121 Third Generation Canadian on 03.13.22 at 12:35 pm

Glory to Ukraine!

#122 Shawn on 03.13.22 at 12:55 pm

Ask Not What China Can Do…

CrowdedElevatorFartz at 11:

P.S.
How many coal fired electric generation plants does China build every year?

****************************************
Ask not what China can do for your planet. Ask what you and your own country an do for your planet.

I’m grateful that my country is doing its part. The fact that China is behind on this only means the west needs to do more.

#123 Ustabe on 03.13.22 at 1:04 pm

#94 Sail Away on 03.13.22 at 12:47 am

#76 Ustabe on 03.12.22 at 8:28 pm

———–

Terrible, U. Just terrible. And that’s not all: here’s Colin Jost from Saturday night live mocking your family:

https://www.narcity.com/snl-used-60-ft-rogue-wave-coast-bc-opportunity-troll-canada

I sure hope you spend a little more time and intellectual acuity on your engineering proposals than you do on your gotcha stuff.

To recap, I post a fun little story about being out off the coast of Sooke in rollers and one was exceptionally large (just down the Island from Ucluelet) you say BS, I offer video evidence, you ghost me.

Now you post a story about a 60 footer, something you said could never happen. Which proves what? Certainly doesn’t go to your assertion, eh?

Tell me Sail, do all women instinctively cover their drink when you enter the room or just the smart ones? (relax, just a joke…certainly funnier than the adolescent and lame crude “joke” you slung at me about my long deceased mother.)

#124 don't poke the bear on 03.13.22 at 1:15 pm

I doubt that anyone yet understands what’s happening in the commodity markets or the implications. Short term or long term.

#125 Ponzius Pilatus on 03.13.22 at 1:36 pm

#120 the Jaguar on 03.13.22 at 12:29 pm
@#109 I don’t know on 03.13.22 at 10:15 am
It’s not always what the media reports, but what they do not report.

There used to be something called ‘balanced reporting’, but we are hearing very little about the history of events that led to this conflict and American involvement in creating it. And some views are being suppressed. Or maybe there is another reason documentaries like Oliver Stone’s Ukraine on Fire keeps getting pulled from You Tube, etc.
Or maybe you believe 39 pro Russian demonstrators were not burned alive in the House of Trade Union building in Odessa? Or that Ukrainian troops and right wing groups have been shelling and killing people in eastern Ukraine for the past 8 years. Or that western Ukraine voted to repeal the right of eastern Ukraine to declare Russian as their official language. Wonder how that would go down similarly in say…Quebec?
The information coming out surrounding those Bio Labs from government officials in the US has been highly contradictory. They can’t get their story straight it seems.
I’m not in any ‘camp’ and I’m grateful I live under the flag of a country where freedom of expression of opposing views is still held in some regard. I happen to agree with what scholars like John Mearsheimer has to say about the situation, and don’t see a balanced view being presented.
Oh, and no.. I am not a ‘high level intelligence officer’. My job is way harder than that.

I find your tacit approval of the Russian aggression unsettling. Please move on to other topics. – Garth
————————
The world is already moving on.
Lots of other hot spots that have been simmering for a long time.
By focussing on one, one diminishes the others.
Bombs don’t differentiate between Ukrainian and other children in war zones.

#126 T on 03.13.22 at 1:38 pm

#97 bdwy on 03.13.22 at 1:49 am
#90 DON on 03.12.22 at 11:36 pm
If inflation keeps on going
………………..
it’s a mathematical certainty.

——————————————
#87 Alexei on 03.12.22 at 10:28 pm
Being half Russian half Ukrainian definitely helps to see the bigger picture. What the collective West is missing entirely is that Putin is in fact the Russian people. The humans can definitely survive without Iphones and trips to French Riviera. Try to survive without electricity, bread and heat in the winter. I agree with Ryan, North America will weather the storm, not sure about Europe. Russia has not even shown yet to the economic war. The global changes will be tectonic.
——————————————
wow , that is scary. i think the food part is easy/easier.
the lights and heat? they better pray for lots of wind. if only we could help. maybe PM fancy socks can provide turbine driving hot air. don’t those old coal plants still work?

—————–
#67 crowdedelevatorfartz on 03.12.22 at 6:31 pm
95% of the customers were still wearing their masks.

Well trained.
—————
Considerate.
//////////////////

same here 95% at local safeway. mostly trained i’d guess. are the peeps still wearing one alone in their car being considerate? god bless them though , may they grow brave, esp the cute gals.

—————

I would suggest to stop trying to rise yourself above others and mind your own business. Who cares if people are wearing masks in cars? What business is it of yours?

A large problem with many lately is an inability to think beyond themselves. You make debates all about you and can’t see it from the perspective of others. You force your way of thinking on others with no respect for boundaries or the wishes of others. Disgraceful.

#127 Sail Away on 03.13.22 at 2:01 pm

#123 Ustabe on 03.13.22 at 1:04 pm

Tell me Sail, do all women instinctively cover their drink when you enter the room or just the smart ones? (relax, just a joke…

———

I don’t understand this joke, U, but I’m sure it represents good, lighthearted fun.

Please explain, thx.

#128 Bdwy on 03.13.22 at 2:37 pm

Mr T
 You force your way of thinking on others
…….
By observing and doing and saying nothing? Force has a strange new meaning!
Should i be doing more? (Im a big physical guy , just rip their masks off?)

#129 T on 03.13.22 at 3:51 pm

#128 Bdwy on 03.13.22 at 2:37 pm
Mr T
You force your way of thinking on others
…….
By observing and doing and saying nothing? Force has a strange new meaning!
Should i be doing more? (Im a big physical guy , just rip their masks off?)

————

That’s what you got from that? Wow, you’re a big, tough guy. Just not very intelligent.

#130 ulsterman on 03.14.22 at 8:28 pm

#84 Bezengy on 03.12.22 at 10:12 pm

Industry wasn’t interested in helping either, a tour of any industrial site was met with a “no can do sorry”.

This is so true. It’s difficult to persuade most employers (not just trades) to take students on work experience, even though they are covered by Provincial WCB insurance. I do understand, it requires a staff member to keep an eye on the student and find something for them to do. However, it’s frustrating to hear the refrain that kids today don’t know what a hard day’s work is, or have no employability skills, when employers won’t give them work experience.

I’m part of the BCTF, but i will say nothing guarantees a “no thanks” from an employer more than trying to call a union shop. Union = no work experience.