Pump it up

Took a drive through an industrial park yesterday in the outer GTA. Almost every sprawling factory had the same message posted outside: ‘We’re hiring! Competitive pay. Excellent benefits. Will train. SIGNING BONUS!’

The manufacturing guys are hurting. The hotels, bars, restaurants and retailers are feeling it, too. Now a new survey shows 40% of WFH people refuse to go back as Covid fades, choosing to resign instead.

This is what happens when a pandemic erodes the work ethic, when there are more job openings than job seekers, and when a country bumps up against full employment. But there’s more. Like the feeling of… what’s-the-point?

The garage where I took my chariot this week is run by Peter, and has been for a couple of decades. No way, he says, can he find a mechanic. In fact, there are ten other garages in the near vicinity equally desperate for the same kind of employee. Meanwhile Peter’s twentysomething kid lives at home after finishing her MA in French literature, unemployed and unable to find work. Actually, not even motivated.

‘She says why bother?’ he told me, in his blue coveralls. ‘My daughter thinks the economy is going down, the planet will be unlivable in 35 years, nobody can afford a house anymore and the country is run by old crooks. Why kill yourself working all day for years? For nothing?’

Oh boy. We got issues.

Did you see that latest?

As Omicron faded last month Canada added 337,000 jobs, wiping out January losses. The unemployment rate crashed down to 5.5%, which is just a hair above its all-time low. In fact, economists call this ‘full employment’. There are a million unfilled jobs at the moment, so enough for everybody who wants to work. It’s interesting that 369,100 more people are working than before Covid hit two years ago. By the way, 62% of the working-age population is hired. Another 5.5% seek work. The rest? They all have masters degrees in the arts, apparently.

On the jobs news, the dollar gained ground against the US$, Canada bond prices fell and yields spiked. Hours worked rose to the highest level ever. Average wages increased 3.1%.

Whazzit mean?

Well, take a 5.5% jobless/full employment number, mix it with GDP growth of 6.7% in the last quarter, throw in inflation (5.1% in Canada, 7.9% in the States), $100+ oil, house prices rising 30% year/year in most markets and the abrupt ending of the pandemic and you get central bankers finally growing a spine. Every possible reason why interest rates should not rise has been erased.

As a result, the next Bank of Canada increase will take place on Wednesday, April 13th. After that count on three more this year. The next possible dates are June 1st, July 13th, September 7th, October 26th and December 7th.

The expectation is for about 1% more to be added to the CB rate this year, taking the chartered bank prime to at least 3.7%, bumping up the carrying costs of LOCs, HELOCs, credit cards, business loans and other debt. Variable-rate mortgages will also be impacted. Fixed-five-year home loan money will be about 4% – or double what it was six months ago.

Says TD economics: “The incredible resiliency of the Canadian economy sets up the Bank of Canada to continue raising rates at its upcoming meetings. Bond markets have moved to reflect this, with yields rising significantly over the last few trading sessions. With inflation the main concern for the Bank, the path to higher rates has been cleared.”

Says RBC: “New headwinds to the economic outlook have emerged with the Russian invasion of Ukraine intensifying geopolitical risks, but inflation pressures have continued to firm and the recovery in the economy from pandemic is too strong to justify emergency low levels of interest rates with the Bank of Canada most likely to follow up on a March rate hike with another as soon as next month.”

Says CIBC: “There is more than enough justification from today’s data for another hike in April. We expect a series of four straight interest rate hikes (including the one already delivered) before a pause as the Bank assesses the impact of those on the economy. However, given strong data like today’s, the risks around that forecast are tilted towards more, rather than fewer, rate increases before such a pause.”

Now, just imagine what occurs when the fires go out in Ukraine, a ceasefire or accommodation is reached and sanctions on Russia gradually lift. Equity markets will bliss out, capital will rush from bonds to stocks, yields will rise, economic growth blossom and CBs accelerate their stimulus withdrawal. Interest rates will swell further and even fewer average families will be able to afford average homes. So, things will change.

It’s coming.

137 comments ↓

#1 crowdedelevatorfartz on 03.11.22 at 3:00 pm

@#135 Canuck
“you can still get 7 year terms on a 20 year Amortization at very good rates.”

+++

A 20 year amortization….. for an RV…. that sits….9 months of the year.
Delusional.

Just curious.

What’s the depreciation on one of those fiberglass extending bedroom, 500 tv channel satellite dish receiving, …..200k, 300k behemoths…..as soon as it is driven off the lot to the nearest gas station to fill up with hundreds of liters of fuel?

#2 TurnerNation on 03.11.22 at 3:05 pm

The future in Kanada. “Almost back to normal — since March 2020®”

From the CEO of the Substack blogging platform. The future lockdowns will be electronic in nature. Perhaps even tailored personally to you – via electronic monitoring and control:

https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1496503040882483201.html
“The Canadian government has proposed legislation (Bill C-36) where people can be taken to court and penalized if they’re suspected of being ABOUT TO post something hateful online.
An individual would be able to report another PREEMPTIVELY for something they haven’t said yet. ‘
‘Under this bill, if a person were found guilty, a judge could order the accused individual to enter into recognizance to be “of good behavior” for up to 12 or 24 months (for a repeat offender).
‘If the person refuses, the judge could order them to:
– provide “a sample of a bodily substance” at regular intervals or on demand
– “return to and remain at their place of residence at specified times”
– “wear an electronic monitoring device, if the Attorney General makes that request”
– avoid people/places decided by the judge


— The global system is being run by BIG TECH. They are trapping us in the mind control matrix.

.Reuters @Reuters — Facebook and Instagram to temporarily allow calls for violence against Russians http://reut.rs/3tKVeud

–Hence…why the Metaverse was rolled out. Another globalist frontman. Goofy and unassuming.

https://www.the-sun.com/tech/4808267/mark-zuckerberg-living-in-metaverse/
Mark Zuckerberg claims humans will live in metaverse one day and leave reality behind


— You will not be able to buy or sell without the mark from Big Tech.

.Amazon suspends shipments and Prime Video access in Russia (finance.yahoo.com

#3 Diharv on 03.11.22 at 3:07 pm

Given that she did not pursue a marketable skill from the start shows that she has been disinterested and unmotivated for many years. So she will live out her life living at home waiting for her parents to pass on, or until a Prince Charming comes along.

#4 Warren-the-lagging_indicator on 03.11.22 at 3:09 pm

#78 Nonplused
‘There is no such thing as a “battery powered car”. Sooner or later higher energy costs will work their way into the cost to charge those things too. If you have a charging station at home, they already are.’
———————————————-

If you are going to respond to things that I am not saying like some kind of leftist, then I guess it is karma that that big truck you choose to drive does not compensate.

#5 Philco on 03.11.22 at 3:09 pm

So much for for your cup of Joe.
REITs are UP all about 2 points today! Mentioned a while ago charts looked long and strong.

#6 greyhound on 03.11.22 at 3:13 pm

“Now, just imagine what occurs when the fires go out in Ukraine…
Commodity-based economies like Australia, South Africa and Canada are likely to do well in what’s coming. That could also mean a stronger Loonie…

#7 baloney Sandwitch on 03.11.22 at 3:22 pm

The girl is right. I busted my balls for 30 years in the corporate world, ended up a heart attack because of the stress, lifestyle and politics. Now I spend my time trading stocks and options. I have made more money in the last 5 than I did in the 30 before that. Hope pooty has had enough and is ready to negotiate soon.

#8 dragonfly58 on 03.11.22 at 3:23 pm

Being a licensed auto mechanic myself, I can only add that if you are smart enough to be a good mechanic , you are smart enough to be successful in a number of other better overall, better paying careers.

#9 cto on 03.11.22 at 3:23 pm

3-4 teansy, weansy rate increases….Wow! that’ll show-em!!!
The last 24 months?:
housing inflation….30%/yr
household item and staples inflation….5-10%/yr

In the last inflationary cycle, they needed to set a rate that was actually above inflation to effectively tame it.
At the rate these guys are going, you and i will be dead before they actually effectively do anything.
Sorry to be blunt guys, but….

#10 Bagley on 03.11.22 at 3:28 pm

When I turned 18, I was given options. Well, two actually. Go to university, work part time, free room and board till I finished. The other option was get a job and pay room and board or get my own apartment. No further discussions were required.

#11 don't poke the bear on 03.11.22 at 3:29 pm

central banks have zero credibility.

it should be a criminal offense to allow the stealing of peoples money in the manner.

rates should already be at 4% in this country

but the theft continues

#12 NOSTRADAMUS on 03.11.22 at 3:29 pm

MY FAVORITE GARTH VADER QUOTE.
Russia is the latest “Excuse Variant,” for inflation.
Inflation, that’s why US president Biden needs a scapegoat. That’s why members of congress need a scapegoat. That’s why Jerome Powell and the minions at the Fed need a scapegoat. All these officials need a scapegoat, because they need to blame someone for the inflation they created. Not greedy business, not Coronavirus, not Russia, THEM.
Put another way, inflation is here for one reason and one reason only. Because, the government isn’t spending money that it collects in taxes, it’s spending money that the central banks print.
Milton Friedman very aptly got to the essentials when he explained the inflation the US experienced in the 70s/80s, “Only the entity controlling the currency (ie government) can create inflation, period!
It is the simple failure of not having the will to control the money supply such that it retains its value.
“It was as clumsy, as it was stupid,” to quote Garth Vader. New point. Real Estate. I do not profess to know when the housing bubble will be pricked, but I do know the identity of the PRIxCKS who created it. Sleep tight my beauties.

#13 ogdoad on 03.11.22 at 3:29 pm

‘My daughter thinks the economy is going down, the planet will be unlivable in 35 years, nobody can afford a house anymore and the country is run by old crooks. Why kill yourself working all day for years? For nothing?’

My sentiments exactly…bust your balls for an incompetent middle person…for what? To buy a tesla? A house? Skinny jeans? Snore me stupid…

Let the economy flop until the world wakes up and designs a society worth putting 30 years of energy into. A society where the idea is sustainability and happiness of the earths inhabitants instead of designing stupid widgets for 30 years..or schlepping burgers for drunken engineering students?

Ya, what IS the point? Contentment? Snore me a river…getting old behind a desk, typing stupid emails, going straight home to netflix and becoming unhealthy before you die? In an age of obesity, depression, loneliness and decreased sex epidemics (THAT sucks – little blues can help. If you can pry your asses off your posture chairs)?

Lets not even start on how dear French Literature is going to be the most educated burger flipper in Canada (depressed much)…and how drivers to Doctors are on the verge of becoming irrelevant due to the rise of internet and AI…

What will governments do then? Irrelevant, duped humans roaming the earth…controlled by uber rich who may or may not pony up the $$$ for UBI (to buy THEIR $hit)…we’ll live OUTSIDE of the walls, remember? Let’em die…

We gots issues, alright…BB’s will get me through.

Enjoy contentment.

Happy Friday!

Og

#14 Dave on 03.11.22 at 3:30 pm

Developers and Builders that do Pre-Sale projects are panicking….they don’t know what the list price should be because material costs are going up 25% every couple of months.

We are living in super duper inflationary times….can the BoC do a .5% bump in April?

#15 Blobby on 03.11.22 at 3:31 pm

“Meanwhile Peter’s twentysomething kid lives at home after finishing her MA in French literature, unemployed and unable to find work. ”

Im guessing she lives at home rent free, etc.

It’s easily solved, make her pay rent/bills/food/etc. But todays society – parents wont do that.. Parents are just as much of the problem here as the lazy kids.

#16 crowdedelevatorfartz on 03.11.22 at 3:35 pm

I’m thinking a motorhome called “Thor” that sleeps 8 is just asking for Floppie and Garth to take a road trip to Vegas….

For $265 k you can also bring your doggies….

https://www.travelhome.com/buy-an-rv/abbotsford/shop-rvs/2022-thor-motor-coach-miramar-352-68218

Just make sure the credit card is empty so you can fill the tank every 600kms or so….

#17 Linda on 03.11.22 at 3:39 pm

Today’s pup photo makes me wonder just what kind of beverage is in the cup & whether dogs can safely ingest caffeine. I know chocolate is very bad for them but don’t have any idea if coffee/tea would be an issue.

‘Peter’s’ daughter obviously has no concerns that her Dad/parents will pull the support the child plug despite her obtaining a degree. I’d point out that if she got her degree in French Lit. she should be fully bilingual. That is a good start for a lot of (federal) government jobs. Probably not a few provincial ones as well. As for ‘why’, well what if Dad/parents do pull the child support plug? What are their finances like? Does she think she’ll inherit a bundle & get to live her life without ever having to work for a living? As for the ‘marry & be supported by your spouse’ routine, does such a thing even exist any longer for us working class types? Most women I know have worked outside the home for most of their adult lives. Heck, even my Mom worked outside the home for most of my childhood. I think my grandmothers may have been ‘stay at home’ but wouldn’t want to bet on it – I know my grandparents on my mothers side made $ growing fresh Chinese vegetables for local area restaurants – snow peas, bitter melon, long melon etc. so I’m pretty sure at least one of my grandmothers would have been eliminated from the ‘stay at home & be supported by the husband’ category.

#18 physicist on 03.11.22 at 3:40 pm

For those interested in supporting green energy:

The Government of Canada has recently announced the framework for a green bond, to help finance green initiatives. Unfortunately, Nuclear has been excluded from Green Financing definitions, and worse than that puts Nuclear with the “sin stocks” such as arms, tobacco, gambling etc. This exclusion impacts access to financing and clean energy funds for both today’s operating plant and new nuclear options.

A petition has been started at the following link to call for the Government of Canada to include nuclear energy within the framework.

Thought some may be interested in this.

https://petitions.ourcommons.ca/en/Petition/Details?Petition=e-3912

#19 Søren Angst on 03.11.22 at 3:40 pm

The EU does not go back to normal Garth in the future like you think.

There will be a EU Defense:
https://twitter.com/eucopresident/status/1502313892592115712

The EU will admit Ukraine into its family of nations:
https://twitter.com/EUCouncil/status/1502180529633857536

The EU will not buy energy from Russia:
https://twitter.com/DaveKeating/status/1501966335907090438
https://twitter.com/vonderleyen/status/1502323972381290496

Energy happening already, ENI * suspends the purchase of Russian oil and petroleum products. Even the Russians took notice.
https://www.ilfattoquotidiano.it/2022/03/10/guerra-russia-ucraina-eni-sospende-acquisto-di-petrolio-e-prodotti-petroliferi-russi/6521172/

https://twitter.com/rianru/status/1502319745688821765

* Eni S.p.A. is an Italian multinational oil and gas company headquartered in Rome. Considered one of the seven “supermajor” oil companies in the world.

—————

Cdn MSM obsessed with refugees in Poland and Russian war atrocities.

…meanwhile, quietly, with determination Europa unites more than ever, will add Ukraine to the fold and close the doors to Russian energy reducing it to an impoverished nation.

There is a resolve here that the Cdn MSM hasn’t a clue about.

I am happy for Canada, jobs etc. b

But Canada & Canadians have a myopic and PROVINCIAL understanding of Europa as it will unfold in the months and years to come.

We are more than just your next holiday destination. Nor a Pollyanna view of post Ukraine.

—————

Tweet of the day:
https://twitter.com/CovertShores/status/1502204017593790464

[they have done well for themselves. Salt of the Earth Ukraine farmers]
https://twitter.com/John10510/status/1502322394006003717

#20 Inequity on 03.11.22 at 3:43 pm

I would argue that anyone with a MA in French literature, hasn’t been thinking about a job for years.

#21 Emma Zaun - GreaterFool Unpaid Intern #007 on 03.11.22 at 3:45 pm

Glad to hear you appreciate how much demand there is for workers, Mr. Turner.

So how about you cough up some pay and benefits for the Amazons, for once?

And by the way, you better keep the mask mandate for all the deplorables coming to the comment section. Most of them are hideously ugly, and there’s no way we’re willing to have to start seeing their faces again.

Emma Zaun
Shop Steward
CUPE (Canadian Union of Peelers and Exhibitionists)

#22 Scotty on 03.11.22 at 3:50 pm

Rates up .25 again with inflation over 7% and in reality over 15%, giving a yield of -6.75%.

Wouldn’t you rather be in gold that at least holds it’s value vs. losing 6% at least?

By the way Biden blamed Putin today for the world’s inflation, oil prices, Nickleback and the cause of his first wife’s death.

#23 TheDood on 03.11.22 at 3:50 pm

#15 Blobby on 03.11.22 at 3:31 pm
“Meanwhile Peter’s twentysomething kid lives at home after finishing her MA in French literature, unemployed and unable to find work. ”

Im guessing she lives at home rent free, etc.

It’s easily solved, make her pay rent/bills/food/etc. But todays society – parents wont do that.. Parents are just as much of the problem here as the lazy kids.
_______________________

Masters educated and unable to find work. Doesn’t add up. She’s better educate than our PM. I would say this person needs a kick in the pants maybe?

#24 Flop… on 03.11.22 at 3:56 pm

#16 crowdedelevatorfartz on 03.11.22 at 3:35 pm

I’m thinking a motorhome called “Thor” that sleeps 8 is just asking for Floppie and Garth to take a road trip to Vegas….

///////////////////////

There’s no way in hell Dorothy and Mrs Flop will sign off on that trip taking place…

M47BC

#25 Dave on 03.11.22 at 3:58 pm

If interest rates go up then prices come down.

Won’t that allow more families to afford a house not less?

So what is th change that is coming?

#26 Joe on 03.11.22 at 4:00 pm

20 something with a MA in French.

” Hi honey congratulations on your Masters in French and finishing University. Here is 6 months rent for you , now go out and grab a pad and start looking for work and get accustomed to the real world. Whats that, you cant find a french job, thats ok honey, use that very smart brain of yours to land something for the time being. Oh and one more thing and im sure you know this but no one is going to come knocking on your door and give you a life and/or job , you have to go after it”…..

#27 Guy in Calgary on 03.11.22 at 4:00 pm

Not to be harsh but if she has to pay for a roof and food, she will soon see the point.

#28 James on 03.11.22 at 4:01 pm

Perhaps the people that have steered away from employment have taken notice that the government is trying to push through bill s 223(U.B.I.). Why strive when you can forgo your privacy/freedom for free money earned by those that value these principles as much as their lives. Could you please comment on your stance on the tenents of the World Economic Forum?

#29 Michael in-north-york on 03.11.22 at 4:05 pm

#163 VladTor on 03.11.22 at 2:18 pm

#153 Michael in-north-york on 03.11.22 at 12:36 pm

….Shell gas stations physically located in Russia, can be easily seized by the local authorities and handed over to a local company.

***********

Conspiracy theories ???? You like it?

Those companies still pay salary to employee. You should distinguishes – media info and real life. If they leave Russia – they will never return. Russia will not allow them to return. If you was in board of directors one of those companies, what you would prefer – listening USA State department or care about yours business and find way to stay? A?
===

As already stated, your example is irrelevant. Exports matter, and they will suffer / are already suffering:

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-england-merseyside-60631735
Ukraine: Workers refuse to unload Russian oil from ship

https://www.energyintel.com/0000017f-4c35-d78a-af7f-efb5753e0000
Russian Oil Exports Fall by One-Third

Run on your hopium if you like. Leaders of the western world do not agree with you.

#30 crowdedelevatorfartz on 03.11.22 at 4:05 pm

@#24 Floppie
“There’s no way in hell Dorothy and Mrs Flop will sign off on that trip taking place…”

+++

Your first mistake is telling them the truth….
An emergency job out of town for 7 days.
Use the govt expense card.

#31 Søren Angst on 03.11.22 at 4:13 pm

Up 0.9% Feb 11 to Mar 11.

Garth’s ETF, B&D, steady as she goes, value not growth mantra + my retiree mantra of only high dividend ETFs/ETNs.

Suffered some Market Value losses in the above period but Dividends offset those by a factor of:

2:1

And of course:

yeah oil

——————-

Looking at losing ETFs today and they are all highly leveraged, speculative like:

Coffee, Industrial Metals, Wheat, Nickel, Cocoa etc. with losses ranging from -4.2% to -5.2%, higher in the last 30 days.

Those of you that think commodities are going to take off, think again. Even oil will stabilize.

– Garth + my retiree strategy works best so far in a skittish, paranoid Mr. Market 2022.

#32 Doug t on 03.11.22 at 4:14 pm

It may be coming – but people have had a mind shift and that is going to take time to change……if ever

#33 Brett in Calgary on 03.11.22 at 4:14 pm

I don’t agree with the kid’s choice of schooling, but I can’t fault her for thinking there isn’t much hope. Opportunity is especially abysmal in the GTA/YVR. Like you highlighted last week Garth, one only need 400k down, and $300k a year salary, to begin to participate in the T.O. housing market!

#34 Dave on 03.11.22 at 4:14 pm

Has your mechanic went to a local high school shop class or college automotive program and offered full-time hours to an apprentice at $20+ per hour?

If not then he’s not trying hard enough. If he doesn’t want to train somebody, who does he expect to do it for him? The government? Probably complains about his taxes as well.

#35 Down more on 03.11.22 at 4:17 pm

My Bet:

S&P500 hits 3800 by Apr 1

Then cops sideways until the fall and then down more…

#36 GrumpyPanda on 03.11.22 at 4:18 pm

The girlfriend’s son completed a community college program as an automotive technician last year. The problem he and other classmates have is the lack of a driver’s license. And the need to apprentice. Covid led to cancelled drive test appointments. Which means no G license. Naturally Peter will want his mechanics to road test the vehicle they just worked on. Meanwhile he and classmates have been working as waiters and delivery of Uber eats via scooters if you can believe that. The work ethic is not dead. Just in physio.

#37 Flop… on 03.11.22 at 4:18 pm

#6 greyhound on 03.11.22 at 3:13 pm

“Now, just imagine what occurs when the fires go out in Ukraine…
Commodity-based economies like Australia, South Africa and Canada are likely to do well in what’s coming. That could also mean a stronger Loonie…

//////////////////////////

I saw a story in the Melbourne Sun this morning that was talking about this exact thing and that the Australian Dollar could hit 80 cents USD.

80 cents, I thought, that’s low seeing as though the Canadian Dollar is already sniffing 80.

I don’t pay as much attention as I used to since I no longer wire transfer and money back to Australia to fund my superannuation.

I didn’t realize it was that low, early 70’s, but I always seems range bound the Aussie and the Beaver Buck, minus 10, plus 10 cents about as extreme as it gets.

Anyway another reason I no longer send money internationally, is because I pay all my taxes to Ottawa, and The Liberals see fit to disperse it all around the globe…

M47BC

#38 Victoria on 03.11.22 at 4:25 pm

We have had enough. We are home owners and did well sold two years ago and are now renting. We have decided to go back to France. Husband will take early retirement. Living in Victoria is just not worth it. Homeless all over downtown, rains and is cold nasty and grey 6 months of the year. No family doctors. 1 million dollars for a basic house in Langford of all places. We have been checking what we could get in France vs Canada and it is astonishing. Good restaurants , better weather, more culture. Easy travel to other countries.

#39 Felix on 03.11.22 at 4:29 pm

Did you know:

Cats have 230 bones, while humans only have 206.

Cats walk like camels and giraffes: They move both of their right feet first, then move both of their left feet. No other animals walk this way.

Cats have up to 100 different vocalizations — dogs only have 10

The IQ of an average dog is about 2x that of a paper clip.

Happy Feline Friday!

#40 Kirk on 03.11.22 at 4:31 pm

I am one of the WFH people who would consider resigning if I had to go to the office again full time.

Luckily my large CDN company believes flexible work is here to stay.

By the way, I am not lazy. In fact, my output has increased and I am more motivated and engaged in my work than I have been thdoing previous 16 years.

I have two children under 5 and the work-life balance of WFH is nothing short of a miracle.

My company has reaped the rewards as well as employees are more available (within boundaries) and able to work when odd hours are needed (it accepted by employee).

No more sitting in a cubicle or commuting down the 400-series highways.

I can’t speak for everyone or every company, but WFH has been revolutionary for me and my company.

#41 Autarky on 03.11.22 at 4:32 pm

Russia can live in Autarky for 2 years and the West 2 months.

The West is shooting themselves in the head with all their sanctions.

Example – an Irish company does buz by buying airplanes and renting them out to the world airlines. There are 550 of these planes in Russia which are now grounded. The Irish co. already announced they will go bankrupt in weeks.

Russia floats the planes (made by Airbus) on the open market to China, Airbus loses orders and goes bankrupt.

Done Son…

#42 Flop… on 03.11.22 at 4:32 pm

#169 Barb on 03.11.22 at 3:39 pm

Any guesses as to who might be a candidate for the Nobel Peace Prize “after” this mess (presuming it’ll end this year)?

///////////////////////

Xi Jinping from China is my bet.

Right after he announces that anyone displaced by war or famine is more than welcome to take up residence in one of China’s Ghost Cities.

They have excess shelter with ready-built infrastructure, millions of others need a roof over their heads.

We suck at problem solving.

Mankind makes things way more complicated than they need to be…

M47BC

#43 Stroller on 03.11.22 at 4:35 pm

NOT being disingenuous:

Can anyone explain why us beleagured foot soldiers should not expect the bank’s savings account interest rate to rise in absolute lock step with any rise in its’ prime lending rate?

#44 The Original Jake on 03.11.22 at 4:47 pm

Putin is determined to go to his grave fighting for Ukraine which the brave citizens are willing to defend at any cost. So what looked like a short war may go for months more. So, before we rip higher, this uncertainty will drag on the markets and I don’t think we bottom until the Dow and S&P join the Nasdaq in bear territory.

#45 Flop… on 03.11.22 at 4:48 pm

#30 crowdedelevatorfartz on 03.11.22 at 4:05 pm
@#24 Floppie
“There’s no way in hell Dorothy and Mrs Flop will sign off on that trip taking place…”

+++

Your first mistake is telling them the truth….
An emergency job out of town for 7 days.
Use the govt expense card.

///////////////////

Hey Crowdie, I don’t have a government expense card.

What I do have is a security fob that allows me to enter the works yard and pump as much free fuel as I want, which is probably why Business In Vancouver currently ranks me as one of the most powerful men in the city…

M47BC

#46 Bezengy on 03.11.22 at 4:49 pm

Today a friend noticed gas leaking out of his truck during a fillup. Yup, someone drilled a hole in his tank. Must have been amateurs. Like who doesn’t like the taste of gas in your mouth?

#47 Michelin on 03.11.22 at 4:51 pm

Peter has the answer to his employee shortage sitting on her arse right there at home! Carpooling together to work, she doesn’t even need to drive!
Put her to work Peter, better than a gym changing tires is. That and sweeping the floor, I’m sure an MA in anything can learn a new trick every day. Lots of father/daughter family time together and if they are both lucky she might even meet a man at the shop someday!

#48 SunShowers on 03.11.22 at 4:52 pm

#27 Guy in Calgary
“Not to be harsh but if she has to pay for a roof and food, she will soon see the point.”

That’s the problem.
“Better than starving to death on the street” is a heinously low bar to expect modern employment to clear.

#49 alexinvestor on 03.11.22 at 4:58 pm

The WFH guys aren’t the same as the industrial park guys even pre-pandemic. And Canada isn’t that much of a socialist state that you can get by without working.

I wouldn’t say work ethic is lacking, but there’s likely some misalignment between jobs out there and skills people have.

#50 kommykim on 03.11.22 at 5:02 pm

RE: It’s interesting that 369,100 more people are working than before Covid hit two years ago.

=======================================

Not really, considering that Canada’s population growth is around 1% which works out to apx 370,000 new people added every year.

#51 Barb on 03.11.22 at 5:06 pm

So how are all these people going to support themselves if they’re refusing to return to work!? They surely can’t all live with their parents.

#52 XEQT and chill on 03.11.22 at 5:08 pm

“My daughter thinks … the planet will be unlivable in 35 years”

Somewhat correct, according to climate scientists.

Boomers: “did you tear those holes in your jeans yourself?”
Millennials: “did you tear that hole in the ozone layer yourself?”

Might as well work though. Even if SHTF, money will still be worth something as things collapse. It’s still better to be wealthy in Russia right now than not.

#53 DON on 03.11.22 at 5:08 pm

#9 cto on 03.11.22 at 3:23 pm
3-4 teansy, weansy rate increases….Wow! that’ll show-em!!!
The last 24 months?:
housing inflation….30%/yr
household item and staples inflation….5-10%/yr

In the last inflationary cycle, they needed to set a rate that was actually above inflation to effectively tame it.
At the rate these guys are going, you and i will be dead before they actually effectively do anything.
Sorry to be blunt guys, but….

******

Mr. Volcker did not want to raise rates either at first if I read correctly. But then had to. Yes big gov debt at the moment.

#54 Justin on 03.11.22 at 5:15 pm

Conflating a desire to WFH with poor work ethic is such a lazy take, Garth. I managed a team during the transition from the office to remote work. Productivity improved.

People in skilled, information-based jobs can’t just watch movies all day and expect no one to notice. Stuff needs to get done. The pandemic just made those people realize they could do said stuff from home just as well as from the office, and avoid an unpaid 3-hour-a-day commute in the process.

If you’re a manager struggling to handle employees working from home, it’s not that WFH is untenable. It’s just that you’re bad at your job.

#55 Big Bucks on 03.11.22 at 5:15 pm

The Public sector adds 450,000 jobs but the Private sector loses 113,000 and that is apparently good news?Canada is in huge trouble and when you crunch the numbers our entire public sector( 3 levels)all 4.5 million of them is paid with nothing but 100% borrowed money.Now we have to spend more on health and the military?Put it on the credit card that now is charging higher rates.As Martha would say,”this is NOT a good thing”

#56 Hurtin' Albertan on 03.11.22 at 5:16 pm

A good mechanics are like good doctors, overworked and hard to get appointments with. Even with more and more electric vehicles on the roads there will always be demand for good mechanics.

#57 TurnerNation on 03.11.22 at 5:17 pm

Homeowners? Comrades, the prefecture Block Captain has flagged your bourgeois lifestyle.
Too decadent. Do not be so selfish. Single family homes are “unsustainable” in the New System

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2022/03/10/british-public-will-asked-take-ukrainian-refugees-homes/
“The British public will be asked to offer homes to tens of thousands of Ukrainians fleeing the Russian invasion under plans to be announced this weekend


— Pay close attention to the more controlled countries. Our globalist rulers’ dream for all of us.
Some say the loosening of the anti-human “Rules” is but a temporary social experiment to see how many sheep will wander once the pen is unlocked.

.China locks down a city of 9 million amid a new spike in COVID-19 cases (npr.org)

.South Korea: BTS fans banned from singing or cheering at concert due to COVID measures(uk.news.yahoo.com)

.Thirteen governors want the federal public health emergency extended beyond April. (nytimes.com)

—– For Dolce & the Data Mongers.

https://boston.cbslocal.com/2022/03/10/massachusetts-covid-death-definition/
“COVID Death Count In Massachusetts Decreases By 3,700 After State Updates Definition”

#58 Yukon Elvis on 03.11.22 at 5:32 pm

EU leaders agree to collectively rearm and phase out Russian gas, oil and coal ‘as soon as possible’ as they branded Putin’s war in Ukraine ‘a tectonic shift in European history’

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10604355/EU-leaders-agree-collectively-rearm-phase-Russian-gas-oil-coal-soon-possible.html

#59 Blobby on 03.11.22 at 5:32 pm

#23 TheDood on 03.11.22 at 3:50 pm

Masters educated and unable to find work. Doesn’t add up. She’s better educate than our PM. I would say this person needs a kick in the pants maybe?

—-

Cant, or wont?

And better than not being a qualified insurance salesman too. (sorry, cant make any real comments about current Con leader – as they dont have one)

#60 meslippery on 03.11.22 at 5:33 pm

#8 dragonfly58
Being a licensed auto mechanic myself, I can only add that if you are smart enough to be a good mechanic , you are smart enough to be successful in a number of other better overall, better paying careers.
——————
How long have you been a mechanic?
Was the the rate in the 80s not $20.00 plus at that time?
This link talks of $30.00 (2019)
The house I bought in the mid 80s for $50k just sold for 751k Ten more $ per hour wont be enough.

https://www.moderntiredealer.com/articles/15836-it-s-time-to-raise-your-labor-rates

#61 AF on 03.11.22 at 5:40 pm

“It’s coming.” So ominous!

Genuine question Garth. What is coming? The trends indicated in the preceding paragraph? Or something else?

“Equity markets will bliss out, capital will rush from bonds to stocks, yields will rise, economic growth blossom and CBs accelerate their stimulus withdrawal. Interest rates will swell further and even fewer average families will be able to afford average homes. So, things will change.”

#62 devore on 03.11.22 at 5:41 pm

#3 Diharv

Fortunately for her, there is still a plentiful, if rapidly declining, supply to choose from. But if she treats her backup plan with the same diligence and vigor as her primary plan, I don’t think she’ll even catch any leftovers.

#63 Tarot Card on 03.11.22 at 5:52 pm

Thanks for the blog Garth
Maybe not roaring 20s just yet.

Today saw a sign at KFC, help wanted so not much new except in then said $500 signing bonus wow!

I still don’t think the war will end well but thanks for the optimism. Do you really think we will all go back to trading with Russia? Personally I think we are going back to the Cold War.

The only thing that I have read that makes sense is either oil sanctions or turn off the oil taps in Europe will spark an alternate energy boom.

So back to our commie leader comrade Horgan by saying no to the pipeline finished Canadas chance of filing Russian oil gap. Interesting the yanks are looking to Venezuela for oil not Canada? probably because of pipeline 5 issues in Michigan.

I am grateful to live in Canada
My heart goes out to those suffering in Ukrainian.

#64 tbone on 03.11.22 at 5:58 pm

I know a kid that got a degree in history . He ended up as a teacher . Not a bad gig for a useless degree.

All degrees are useless unless applied to real life. – Garth

#65 Michael in-north-york on 03.11.22 at 6:06 pm

#41 Autarky on 03.11.22 at 4:32 pm

Russia can live in Autarky for 2 years and the West 2 months.
===

That’s just funny. In 2 months, let’s see who is in a greater economic hardship.

#66 Bezengy on 03.11.22 at 6:17 pm

Girls at not encouraged to enter the trades, and that’s a shame. If you don’t believe me call the local high school and ask how many girls are taking wood working or automotive class. Btw….you don’t take automotive class because you want to be a car mechanic, nor do you take wood working because you want to become a carpenter. This is something parents and guidance counsellors don’t understand.

#67 steve on 03.11.22 at 6:22 pm

You are so predictable garth.

“This is what happens when a pandemic erodes the work ethic”

Imagine thinking one cannot maintain a strong work ethic working from home.

I guess you need to be an underground PATH zombie to get your approval, eh Garth.

#68 rknusa on 03.11.22 at 6:37 pm

re: #9 cto on 03.11.22 at 3:23 pm
3-4 teansy, weansy rate increases….Wow! that’ll show-em!!!
The last 24 months?:
housing inflation….30%/yr
household item and staples inflation….5-10%/yr

In the last inflationary cycle, they needed to set a rate that was actually above inflation to effectively tame it.
At the rate these guys are going, you and i will be dead before they actually effectively do anything.
Sorry to be blunt guys, but….

agree 110%
who are they kidding?

#69 Ed on 03.11.22 at 6:40 pm

#16 crowdedelevatorfartz

I’m thinking a motorhome called “Thor” that sleeps 8 is just asking for Floppie and Garth to take a road trip to Vegas….

Funny you mentioned this…I’m doing this in Vegas right now in my $300k ride. Sold the house 12 years ago , retired early, bought a sailboat and a land yacht and been travelling happily ever after.

So how’s life ? Anything good on tv?

#70 crowdedelevatorfartz on 03.11.22 at 6:46 pm

@#64 t-boned
“Not a bad gig for a useless degree.”

+++

Tell that to someone working at Starbucks serving you coffee with a $40,000 student debt.

#71 crossbordershopper on 03.11.22 at 6:48 pm

yup, my only 16 year old daughter said that she doesnt like work , IDK where she gets it, she never had a job and has zero intention to ever work.
She is right, Work is for loosers. I think I taught her well

#72 Danger Dan on 03.11.22 at 6:53 pm

In the U.S., it seems suddenly Central Bank Cryptocurrency (in name only) is back on the menu.

This has already been foreshadowed by the introduction of digital ID and of course people are already connecting the dots behind this totalitarian agenda –

https://theupheaval.substack.com/p/just-say-no-to-cbdcs

Instead of preserving freedom and promoting prosperity, our government is instead obsessed with social engineering and telling us what views it deems acceptable.

People wonder why Canadian politics is becoming polarized? This is why! Next to power-mad Trudeau & co., Max Bernier seems quite normal.

#73 Shawn on 03.11.22 at 7:01 pm

Big Bucks or Big Lies?

#55 Big Bucks on 03.11.22 at 5:15 pm

The Public sector adds 450,000 jobs but the Private sector loses 113,000 and that is apparently good news?

********************************
Where did get that from? The news today was the February job gains. Are you talking about in the last year, since pre-pandemic or just making stuff up?

The release today states:

Employment climbed 337,000 (+1.8%) in February, more than offsetting January losses.

February employment growth was driven by gains in the number of private sector employees (+347,000; +2.8%).

By my math, government jobs were DOWN by 10,000 in February.

https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/daily-quotidien/220311/dq220311a-eng.htm?CMP=mstatcan

#74 Neptunian on 03.11.22 at 7:06 pm

BOC and T2 went too far and overfilled with too low interest rate and too much free money. They know it but found they have been handcuffed. A prime rate at 3.7 is still not enough to fight against a 5.1(and still rising) inflation, but that’s probably the best they can do , without too much risk to trigger a recession. So hedging against inflation is still a priority, and RE is a classic way (hedging against inflation).

#75 Neptunian on 03.11.22 at 7:08 pm

re: #9 cto on 03.11.22 at 3:23 pm

Agree with 120%
Who are they kidding

#76 Reality Check on 03.11.22 at 7:17 pm

68 RKNUSA
In the last inflationary cycle, they needed to set a rate that was actually above inflation to effectively tame it.
At the rate these guys are going, you and i will be dead before they actually effectively do anything.
———————

Central Banks are political beasts with their heads being appointed by government. Nobody wants to be the guy that raises rates too fast and kills the economy.

That’s why central banks are always too late to the party and why we end up with rates much higher than they would have been if the CBs acted quicker.

This time is no different – rates should have been on the rise a year ago or more when inflation had already gained momentum.

I fear for Canada, that has so strongly tied it economy to housing and housing services. Even a return to long run normal rates would cause a massive loss of housing equity and tsunami of defaults.

#77 John in Mtl on 03.11.22 at 7:23 pm

#2 TurnerNation on 03.11.22 at 3:05 pm

https://www.the-sun.com/tech/4808267/mark-zuckerberg-living-in-metaverse/
Mark Zuckerberg claims humans will live in metaverse one day and leave reality behind.

What a sad, sad day for humanity when that happens! Gimme the real, tangible world, with all its ugliness and beauty any day. And saying that from a guy who has spent his whole life in hi-tech.

#78 Summertime on 03.11.22 at 7:25 pm

As long as real interest rates are becoming increasingly and deeply negative, all credit derivatives and inflation protection assets, including housing will keep going up.

The only way to break that trend is to institute positive real interest rates, i.e. greater than 15-20 % at the moment, double digits in the next decade.

Not gonna happen, so expect more of the same, but accelerated.

#79 Paul on 03.11.22 at 7:25 pm

The problem was not finding employees. The problem is/was what employers were paying.

If you pay peanuts you get monkeys.

If you want talent. You got figure out how to pay them more.

#80 BacK Agaain on 03.11.22 at 7:30 pm

If The Goldman with Sacks keeps increasing their odds of recession every 5 days and now at 40%…

We are already in a recession

#81 NoName on 03.11.22 at 7:30 pm

@tweet of the day dude

[they have done well for themselves. Salt of the Earth Ukraine farmers]
https://twitter.com/John10510/status/1502322394006003717

That was in croatia, we invented the tracktor force, what we do for world and noone appreciate us…

#82 dragonfly58 on 03.11.22 at 7:30 pm

Hi meslippery I did my pre app in 1978, started at $9.00 / hr. The best I ever made as a full time mechanic was $15.00 / Hr in 1985. I then went back to first BCIT for a Tech qualification and then UBC. In 1991 I did the odd bit of work in a good friend’s shop during slow times at my main employer. By that time I was a tech support / and working into a supervisory role as a heavy plant engineer. 1992 on, never again worked as a automotive mechanic. Never looked back . Automotive work is a great hobby, but leaves a lot to be desired as a career IMHO.

#83 dragonfly58 on 03.11.22 at 7:37 pm

A lot of school, but once I left the trades my income went up significantly, for the first 20 years at least. The last decade wages really stalled out. Work became more and more complex , but the employer steadily claimed they couldn’t afford pay increases. It was too late in my career to jump ship, but really I should have.

#84 Yukon Elvis on 03.11.22 at 7:51 pm

#41 Autarky on 03.11.22 at 4:32 pm
Russia can live in Autarky for 2 years and the West 2 months.

The West is shooting themselves in the head with all their sanctions.

Example – an Irish company does buz by buying airplanes and renting them out to the world airlines. There are 550 of these planes in Russia which are now grounded. The Irish co. already announced they will go bankrupt in weeks.

Russia floats the planes (made by Airbus) on the open market to China, Airbus loses orders and goes bankrupt.

Done Son…
++++++++++

Hey Autarky….Mr. Self Sufficient…..I’m gonna send u some cabbages. What is your address there in Moscow?

#85 Satori on 03.11.22 at 7:58 pm

#38 Victoria on 03.11.22 at 4:25 pm

We have had enough. We are home owners and did well sold two years ago and are now renting. We have decided to go back to France. Husband will take early retirement. Living in Victoria is just not worth it. Homeless all over downtown, rains and is cold nasty and grey 6 months of the year. No family doctors. 1 million dollars for a basic house in Langford of all places. We have been checking what we could get in France vs Canada and it is astonishing. Good restaurants , better weather, more culture. Easy travel to other countries.
————————————————–
Congratulations!!! This is what I am talking about!! How exciting, AND what an Adventure! The clock keeps ticking, so why not? We only have so many years on this planet…please keep us updated!

I agree, Vancouver is the same, worse month after month – more sketchy, new huge apartment buildings going up every where, shoe box condos, traffic jams, line ups, streets looking rough… I am outta here in 17 days!! No more work, play all day, and I am so early…no one would believe it.
*(I do have to thank Garth and Sinan for helping me because I could never do it on my own nor have gotten this far).

I didn’t get stuck doing GICs, counting pennies and doing what comment #13 ogdoad said:

“Ya, what IS the point? Contentment? Snore me a river…getting old behind a desk, typing stupid emails, going straight home to netflix and becoming unhealthy before you die? In an age of obesity, depression, loneliness and decreased sex epidemics…”

Have a great time Victoria!
Wishing you the Best of the Best!

#86 Rochdale GM on 03.11.22 at 7:59 pm

Did you catch the report about rental housing last night on Fifth Estate? I totally get the discouragement and cynicism of 20-year-olds.

#87 Hanna on 03.11.22 at 8:11 pm

Big Bucks, I know it is really depressing if you are working and paying from the private sector to pay all the big wasteful costs of government, public sector.I just got my first job at 3.5 years ago, talk about bad timing. I have 3 part-time jobs working 65 hours a week for years now. I started earning $49,000 a year but am now earning $60,000 a year on all of them and as a 22.5 year old, I have been very focusing on saving. I managed to save, pile up $78,000 in 3.5 years, RRSP, TFSA max those out plus cash investments mostly in 1-3 year staggered GICs. Good thing they are maturing and I am finally getting higher interest rates on them. My goal really is to have 7 times my current income, $420,000 by my 32nd birthday.

#88 jimmy zhao on 03.11.22 at 8:12 pm

If there are so many job vacancies, increase the immigration level to fill those jobs. Plus the birth rate in Canada is below replacement value, so we need more people else the population declines.

Bring in Ukrainian refugees to Canada, some will stay temporarily until the situation in their homeland is worked out, some will stay permanently.

#89 Shawn on 03.11.22 at 8:23 pm

#71 crossbordershopper on 03.11.22 at 6:48 pm

yup, my only 16 year old daughter said that she doesnt like work , IDK where she gets it, she never had a job and has zero intention to ever work.
She is right, Work is for loosers. I think I taught her well

**********************
I hope you did not teach her to spell like you. Loosers? Seriously?

#90 DON on 03.11.22 at 8:30 pm

Hey Crowded….below is a comment from another blog.

5 hours ago

“Everything is cracking! Seems like the destruction of America is going according to plan. Covid ended the same day all this Russian nonsense began.
One thing is for sure… We are toast. I sell RV’s in SW Florida and you can hear a pin drop around here. No urgency, no demand and we have lots of inventory. Who in their right mind wants a $ 400k diesel pusher when diesel is at $5.15 a gallon? The only people coming around are people looking for cheap trailers to live in. When this thing pops and the wealth effect is gone overnight look out below.”

#91 red falcon on 03.11.22 at 8:38 pm

Again, this lady doens’t really know what she’s looking for and has no ambition. There is an opportunity and she’s not taking it, so good on her to not be productive, and choose to dwell at home and waste her biological clock too.

Canadians like her thank they have it thought out and never think about things outside the box. wasting opportunity after opportunity, and time. Time is the biggest thing cuz it will never come back. Time truly is wasted on the young, especially this youngin. It’s over for her… with a big O V E R.

Take your shots, take your opportunities and make the most of your chances. but if most Canadian’s like her keep staring at her navel, she’ll miss the rainbow in the sky.

Previously a person who stared at his/her navel too long.

#92 Dan on 03.11.22 at 8:41 pm

I have a question for the experts on this blog: where is the big Red Army?

#93 crowdedelevatorfartz on 03.11.22 at 8:43 pm

@#69 Ed
” Sold the house 12 years ago , retired early, bought a sailboat and a land yacht and been travelling happily ever after.”
+++
Nice.
You’re the rare breed.

Most RV Warriors are still wage slaves.
I watched a co worker upgrade to bigger and bigger RV’s ( foot envy) over 15 years.
Never paid them off.
Always took a hit on the trade ins and refinanced.
Spent more time “winterizing” in the Fall and Spring cleaning/ repairs …..to prep it for the rare summer excursions.
Eventually retired.
Spent one year driving around the States and Canada.
As soon as he got back.
Sold it.
Never bought one again.
I’ll pass.

TV?
Same as your 500 Satellite channels …..crap.
Unless your into Japanese midget mud wrestling.
Ponzie sez “its a thing”

#94 Nonplused on 03.11.22 at 8:52 pm

Someone who has a MA in French Literature probably wasn’t much into working to begin with, so not a great example.

As for the trades, well, Mike Rowe (the “Dirty Jobs” guy) has been warning about this for years. We have been denigrating hands on work for years, and encouraging our youth to take out huge student loans to get educations with next to no market value rather than take a path towards reasonably paying jobs in the trades. You reap what you sow.

‘My daughter thinks the economy is going down, the planet will be unlivable in 35 years, nobody can afford a house anymore and the country is run by old crooks. Why kill yourself working all day for years? For nothing?’

Sounds like a big ol’ pile of stinky excuses to me. In my day, the economy was down, the planet was going to be uninhabitable due to nuclear winter, houses were expensive because interest rates were higher, and the country was run by old crooks. So what’s changed? Mostly that everyone has a master’s in fine arts or the humanities now, and a big ol’ student loan which was mostly run up paying rent in Vancouver rather than on educational expenses.

#95 stage1dave on 03.11.22 at 8:54 pm

#10 Bageley

Yup, I remember those options; pretty much what I got offered. And it was made clearer thru my last semester of Gr 12…took me over a year to get in the groove, tho.

Now that I’m nearing “retireing” age (and having no plan to ever do so) I occasionally realize that I’m still not qualified to do a damned thing; and yet seem to make a living (or generate an income) at several things. All of which I enjoy, btw.

I’d be at a complete loss to recommend life/education/workstyle choices for today’s generation…tho I can personally recommend WFH, that’s worked out pretty well.

Stay out of debt…that works well too!

And acquire 2 cats, because its more entertaining…

#96 crowdedelevatorfartz on 03.11.22 at 9:03 pm

@#79 Paul.
“The problem was not finding employees. The problem is/was what employers were paying.”

++++
Actually our Union shop doesn’t allow us to pay them higher wages so we implemented a performance bonus plan about 10 years ago.
If the company made a profit them we shared that with the employees.
It works out to about an extra month or so in wages at the end of an average year.
2020 was an exceptional year.
The bonuses in Jan of 2021 were minimum 3 months wages and some made six months wages in bonuses.
The end result in 2021 after receiving those bigger bonuses?
Everyone slacked off.
Took holidays during our busiest time, started asking/expecting bigger bonuses.
So …Jan 2022 was back to average bonuses for all because the company didnt do as well.

Funny how that works.

#97 jess on 03.11.22 at 9:12 pm

“when the tree falls the monkeys scatter”

#98 willworkforpickles on 03.11.22 at 9:24 pm

Unsubstantiated optimism for big improvements in the economy looking ahead is dangerous thinking.
Such thinking processes tend to overlook what’s here, whats become entrenched and what’s coming.

-Inflation is not going away.
-Spiralling money printing and debt creation isn’t for long going away either.
-When the Rus/Ukr war ends…6mos…9mos…1 year from now?… the dollar will start declining as countries bail for a safer currency.
-The beginning of the end is here for the dollar. In about 1 year it will be faced with alternative rivals.
-The US dollar will be de-throned in about 2 to3 years time.
-Paltry interest rate increases and retractions will end . -With the end of the worlds reserve currency status , real interest rate increases will commence heading to and beyond historical int. rate levels in around 2 -1/2 to 3 years time.
-The value of the dollar will decline then drastically 2 to 3 years out.

All of these things (except for approx. timelines) are certain to come.

Getting ones dollars in a safe haven/currency out of dollars gradually so and starting now isn’t a good plan, its the only plan to protect peak value in the dollar.
Sit back and relax after taking the necessary action to save yourselves from the coming dollars decline and watch in peace as the dollar devalues.
RE is priced in dollars and with the coming slide, will slide in tandem together.

-RE will be hit on 2 fronts in about 3 years or so.
-High rates to drive prices down.
-A much devalued dollar.

Those smart enough to have started preserving their dollars value today in a safe currency , will buy a house with their wealth preserved hedge for a fraction of today’s value in the coming years.

The nice thing about this plan is you will some day own RE and have a lot of money at the same time to spend too – while many twist and turn with the times of trouble ahead with no money and lost RE ownership.

We’ll see 3 years from now as most instantaneously ignore this message today.

When your children have grandchildren, the US dollar will still be the planet’s reserve currency. – Garth

#99 Outrage on 03.11.22 at 9:27 pm

There be many jobs but there is way more people looking for work than jobs in Victoria. I got one call for a full time but I want a part time work. I use indeed but its a very tough and super competitive. I was shocked how tough it is out there but Victoria is always competitive job market. I’ll wait closer until summer and hopefully it will pick up.

#100 Doug t on 03.11.22 at 9:33 pm

#38 Victoria

And SO much closer to Russia et-all- have fun lol

#101 Unpinned on 03.11.22 at 9:34 pm

19th century French Literature is chock full of the narrative of “big money and fortunes and wealth” and your cliche of a vrai Francais being tight and economical to the nth degree is not far fetched from reality. How Garth’s MA missed the “financial connection” with French literature by a country mile is a tell. The best French writer today “MICHEL HOUELLEBECQ” never misses the money story in his English translated novels.

#102 DON on 03.11.22 at 9:38 pm

http://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/statistics-canada-says-household-debt-to-income-ration-hit-record-high-in-q4-1.1736274

We’re number one…Yikes. Some folks are gonna need lots and lots of Scooby snacks. I don’t think the bank are sweating too much with the CMHC backed by the good old taxpayers. Politicians come and go…it will all be blamed of the exiting officials.

When was the last time someone offered to pay off your personal debt. Dog help the over leveraged and the fallout for the rest of us.

The Chinese housing market is continuing their descent.

How are credit markets doing in the US?

#103 crowdedelevatorfartz on 03.11.22 at 9:44 pm

@#90 DON
” Who in their right mind wants a $ 400k diesel pusher when diesel is at $5.15 a gallon? ”

+++

Yeah.
I think driving a private bus in Vegas, or the US is a tad cheaper…. by a long shot……than Canada.

Either way.
Let’s see what happens in the coming months as gas keeps going up and Mortgage/loan rates also continue going up.

#104 I don’t know on 03.11.22 at 9:49 pm

The last paragraph of today’s post is particularly important. Rates are rising, and higher than they have been for a long time. However, this won’t make average homes affordable by any means, the opposite actually. Affordability is about to get much worse.

As our host has been saying for years, you buy dirt the moment you can afford to. If you cannot afford real estate yet, then you absolutely need to have a balanced and diversified portfolio as soon as possible. Hiding in cash has been a bad move, and will become an even worse one moving forward.

IDK

#105 Steven on 03.11.22 at 9:56 pm

Thé digital economy is taking over. Unfilled jobs will be the norm. Many more self employed people than before. I make $1200+ a week doing Ubereats. Why work for someone?

#106 canuck on 03.11.22 at 10:00 pm

crowdedelevatorfartz on 03.11.22 at 3:00 pm

@#135 Canuck
“you can still get 7 year terms on a 20 year Amortization at very good rates.”

+++

A 20 year amortization….. for an RV…. that sits….9 months of the year.
Delusional.

Just curious.

What’s the depreciation on one of those fiberglass extending bedroom, 500 tv channel satellite dish receiving, …..200k, 300k behemoths…..as soon as it is driven off the lot to the nearest gas station to fill up with hundreds of liters of fuel?
___________________________________________

What do you care… it’s not much different than a car or truck. Have you ever bought one of those?

If you can afford 300k for an RV, you don’t worry about fuel prices.

20 year ams on RV’s are the norm. People don’t keep them for 20 years… just like most people don’t keep the cars they finance for up to 9 years that its financed. Most trade in after 3 years.

#107 canuck on 03.11.22 at 10:17 pm

#71 crossbordershopper on 03.11.22 at 6:48 pm

yup, my only 16 year old daughter said that she doesnt like work , IDK where she gets it, she never had a job and has zero intention to ever work.
She is right, Work is for loosers. I think I taught her well
___________________________________________

You try so hard…

#108 SnowyRiverDame on 03.11.22 at 10:46 pm

#54 Justin on 03.11.22 at 5:15 pm

If you’re a manager struggling to handle employees working from home, it’s not that WFH is untenable. It’s just that you’re bad at your job.

——————–

This is hilarious. How do you onboard a graduate new start in your company? How do they learn the soft skills needed to succeed in their career? None of this can be learned through video calls and chat messages.

Remote working places every worker in a silo where all information exchange has to happen in a semi-formalized or formalized manner. This might work ok for non-collaborative menial tasks, but growing, entrepreneurial firms need top talent that is focused and engaged with not only the work, but the team around them.

Sure if you want to take a reductivist approach to a work life, then yes, people can do the “work” from home. But doing the “work” isn’t a career, it’s just doing the “work”. There is less personal or career growth, less learning and experiences shared.

We are coming off the tail of the post-covid mini-boom with the resulting worker shortages. Workers have leverage right now but the pendulum will swing back the other way.

We are about to head into a recession. Goldman are pricing in today a 40% likelihood. That will just grow as the shockwave of events in Europe spreads around the globe. When that happens the luxury, yes, it is a perk, of working from home will not be extended as freely.

#109 willworkforpickles on 03.11.22 at 10:58 pm

“When your children have grandchildren, the US dollar will still be the planet’s reserve currency. – Garth”

………………………………………..

Timelines will change due to unforeseen circumstances as sure as the US dollar will be de-throned this decade.

#110 mark on 03.11.22 at 11:21 pm

She probably didn’t choose the best degree, but she has identified a problem. Countries that were too cynical and cowardly to address tougher prudential regulation around mortgage lending, while rates plumbed near zero, have helped usher in this why bother mentality.

Behaviourally, when you consider it, it’s not a surprising response. You’re extinguishing the most base aspiration many have in life. Sure, renting is fine, but when the mere potential or belief of homeownership is sacrificed at the alter of gdp or the wealth effect, it’s not surprising some motivational fires go out.

Central bankers, regulators and policy makers in this space over the past two decades should hang their heads in shame. It’s one of the greatest failures we’ve seen.

Sheesh. The goal of life is not a house. So vacuous. – Garth

#111 TalkingPie on 03.11.22 at 11:24 pm

Being an older millennial I see a bit of both sides of the situation. On one hand, you have my generation that was helicoptered within an inch of our lives – most of my friends had just about everything paid for them well into their twenties, many have had help with buying houses, and generally have grown up in the glow of boomer middle class prosperity. At school we were generally discouraged from doing anything potentially dangerous (shop class and home economics were both cancelled during my high school tenure) and were told we were special snowflakes (the girls in particular). That amount of privilege – and being deprived of the opportunity to learn and do things the hard way – breeds a certain sense of entitlement.

And then from the other side, anyone who’s trying to make an honest go of it faces an uphill battle. The house my parents bought in the Montreal suburbs when I was born in 1983 cost $75,000. That same house, despite being 39 years older, is now worth easily 10 times that. Have wages gone up ten times? A look at the inflation calculator suggests that CPI is about 2.6 times what it was then. In real terms, that house is about 4 times as expensive as it was then. Yes, interest rates were high then, but that meant that if you were disciplined you could amass a significant down payment fairly quickly. My parents certainly had their own challenges and hardships, but they were mortgage free in their early 40s, despite my mother not having an income my entire life.

I got lucky and ended up at a unionized job at a former crown corporation. I make decent money for what my job requires and I’m thankful that in general my life is currently almost too easy. But when I got a management degree (studied part time around my job) and tried to get a middle management job in the same company where I’d already been a reliable employee for a decade? Couldn’t even get an interview for harder jobs, making less money, than I was already making in the same company. And new hires in the same position I work don’t enjoy nearly the salary, benefits, or working conditions that I did even 10 years ago.

Incidentally, I finished an 18 month auto mechanics course in 2007 – something to do while I gathered my bearings after failing out of engineering at 22. I’ve loved cars since I could walk, but quickly decided that the toll on the body and the drudgery of the job were not worth the wages and standard of living that the occupation offered. I don’t regret not pursuing it as a career, although I do appreciate the ability to maintain my own cars and having a basic idea of which end of a tool to hold while doing maintenance around my house.

#112 Mid island on 03.12.22 at 12:57 am

#18
Nuclear power in my opinion is a great option, especially these new small modular reactors. Stick one outside each city, town no sending high voltage thousands of miles across the country. Carbon free emissions until the next big invention.

#113 Dr V on 03.12.22 at 12:58 am

111 T-pie

“…. after failing out of engineering at 22.”
————————————————–

Well there’s the problem. If you had succeeded you coulda been working for Sail Away.

#114 Barth Sagh on 03.12.22 at 1:25 am

The dearth of a work ethic has been engendered by an equally lazy feckless government policy of coddling of woke wanna be radicals. It isn’t like this everywhere, but in Canada it’s a plague of tyrannical proportions. What I hear from Mills is that:

a) they need to start at the top

b) nothing’s good enough/ conditions aren’t perfect

c) were all gonna die anyway because of climate change and greedy corporations.

d) everything needs to be free.

Where are we going to go with that being the prevailing attitude?

#115 Balance Baby on 03.12.22 at 1:27 am

As inflation rages (using 1970’s methodology CPI is now 16% year-on-year) financial assets are tanking. YTD: Investment Grade Bond Index down 5%, S&P down 12% so traditional 60/40 portfolio down 9%; some “Core” Bond funds down 8%, ARKK fund down 41% so aggressive 60/40 down 27%.

#116 Grade 12 on 03.12.22 at 3:25 am

“Why work hard to pay for a Boomer’s retirement portfolio and mortgage?” is the common mantra at my high school.

#117 Sail Away on 03.12.22 at 3:43 am

So nice to ceremoniously burn the old gray mask. She ain’t what she used to be, that’s for sure- sort of like the hockey ginch at season end.

The overpass flag-bearers were out in force. One goal achieved.

#118 under the radar on 03.12.22 at 6:05 am

Sanctions take some time to bite and are pretty sticky once applied. The impact of making Russia an outlier is anyone’s guess. The Japanese went to war because of an Oil embargo and frozen assets.

#119 I don’t know on 03.12.22 at 7:22 am

#109 willworkforpickles on 03.11.22 at 10:58

The irony is what is going on in Europe is reinforcing American hegemony, not weakening it. This is obvious to anyone who looks (hint: it has to do with geography and the ability to project power more than anything else).

If anything USD reserve status has just been extended.

As our host has mentioned, your statement is more opinion than anything else.

IDK

#120 crowdedelevatorfartz on 03.12.22 at 7:27 am

@#106 canuck
“If you can afford 300k for an RV, you don’t worry about fuel prices.”

+++

Well therein lies the issue.

Most people CAN’T afford to “buy” an RV.

They’re financing it….over 20 years.
And as you have said.
Most dont own the same RV for 20 years…
They trade it in and refinance a new one.
Again and again and again.
Always paying the dealership money, never owning until that last payment, usually at exorbitant rates.
For what amounts to an extravagant toy that sits in the driveway for most of the year.
A win win for….the dealer or the finance company.

Renting an RV for 2 weeks or even a month makes more sense.
Put those monthly payments into something worthwhile like an affordable retirement.
If anything goes wrong with it…. call the rental agency to come pick it up and bring you one that works.

Yes I’ve owned new vehicles.
Last work and personal truck I bought in 2014 I put 50% cash down and financed the rest at 0.9% .
My total interest payments over 4 years was $400.
Its in excellent shape.
I’m still driving it and plan on driving it for at least another 10 years. Payment free for 15 plus years is the way to get ahead.
Not paying some anonymous shylock a pound of flesh every month ….forever.

Thats why I come to a financial advice blog.
You?

#121 crowdedelevatorfartz on 03.12.22 at 8:05 am

@#114 barth

“The dearth of a work ethic has been engendered by an equally lazy feckless government policy of coddling of woke wanna be radicals. ”

+++

Unfortunately you are correct with the exception of one thing.
These woke idiots are no longer “radicals”.
They are the new norm.

Tax and spend tax and spend ….until the idiots that vote for them eventually realize their pay cheques are being burned to fund the next “woke of the week” idea..

#122 Scarlati on 03.12.22 at 8:32 am

In my personal view, labour short is driven by couple of factors.
First barriers to integrate immigrants in the professional fields. i.e. Foreign trained doctors, nurses, accountants, mechanics, plumbers ..etc. This is driven by each professional governing body trying to restrict the supply.

My questions, to the doctors or nurses association, (1) are bodies and disease vastly different from other human bodies; (2) How will a Canadian doctors falling sick outside Canada, and trying to seek medical treatment will feel if in the foreign country she/he is told that he cannot get treatment because the the foreign country doctors are trained to treat Canadian patient. The same applies to mechanics and cars.
Canada wastes millions of dollars bringing the brightest immigrants and once they land we tell them sorry, your cannot practice your profession without going back to study again and do internships and start all over again. What a waste

The second problem, lied with the post secondary eduction system in Canada. We have pushing students towards University eduction, of which some does not add value. How many arts (History, phycology, social science or humanities) graduates this country needs. We have ignored vocational eduction. Hence the shortage in blue collar professions.

Finally, look how we treat newly graduate teacher or nurses. Supply teacher, where there no job stability or working nurses day and night, forced over time. Is that’s how this country attract tallent.

No wonder our children are not motived and our immigrants are struggling as uber drivers

Thank you for reading

#123 Dharma Bum on 03.12.22 at 9:12 am

DELETED

#124 Dharma Bum on 03.12.22 at 9:18 am

#116 Grade 12

“Why work hard to pay for a Boomer’s retirement portfolio and mortgage?” is the common mantra at my high school.
———————————————————————————————————

Why?

Well, because we need to sustain the lifestyle we enjoyed for the past 60 years. What’s not to like?

So, get your high school diploma, then enrol in a serious post secondary course that leads to decent employment. Do a postgraduate degree in the chosen lucrative field so you can get a job, then start working hard so us boomers can continue living off the fat of your labour for the next 30 years. We’ve got cars to drive and houses to buy!

Chop chop!

#125 Prince Polo on 03.12.22 at 9:59 am

#103 Ponzius Pilatus on 03.10.22 at 9:38 pm
#101 crowdedelevatorfartz on 03.10.22 at 9:19 pm
@#81 Prince Polo
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=kSNo2FPQDQw
That was a brilliant interview.
Well worth the 45 minutes.
——————-
Don’t have 45 minutes to hear from another “Putin expert”.
Give us a synopsis.

Thank you sir!
&
It takes much less time if you watch it at 1.75X or 2X speed.

In an interview for the upcoming FRONTLINE documentary “Putin’s Road to War,” journalist Julia Ioffe discusses Vladimir Putin’s invasion of Ukraine — and why she believes the Russian leader is now “more dangerous than he’s ever been at any point in the last 22 years.”

“What he has opened up with this invasion is unthinkable,” Ioffe tells FRONTLINE. “And because he is losing and because the sanctions and the Ukrainians are humiliating him, because he is backed into a corner, he is the most dangerous he has ever been, because it is now existential for him.”

Julia Ioffe is an American journalist who was born in Russia. She is a writer for and founding partner of the media company Puck. She previously reported on politics and world affairs for The Atlantic.

#126 willworkforpickles on 03.12.22 at 10:08 am

#119 I don’t know

“The irony is what is going on in Europe is reinforcing American hegemony, not weakening it. This is obvious to anyone who looks (hint: it has to do with geography and the ability to project power more than anything else).

If anything USD reserve status has just been extended.

As our host has mentioned, your statement is more opinion than anything else.”
………………………………………………………………………………………………………

You have carried this over and out of context from a post I submitted yesterday in response to a response from Garth with….

(“My statement was fact. Your statements are opinion. – Garth”)
………………………………

“Ok , but you missed the point. Sure your statement is fact.
Its official and posted as such…no argument.
…but believing the official moderated numbers when they are just government lies hiding behind the designated term “Official” is my argument as the government goes on leading us down the garden path to economic ruin.
Your statement is correct in terms of the official posted 7% but you are wrong in saying mine is only opinion.
There is more than enough evidence and information available to show and prove the changes being made in the constantly adjusted CPI”
………………………………………………………………………………………….

Hardly an opinion…the statement I made then was factual as is the long standing commitment of major countries to upend the US dollar as the world’s primary reserve currency a fact and not an opinion.

You yourself have no facts about anything. Just taking up space here posting a lot of nothing that adds to nothing as is the usual for you.

And no, what is going on in Europe is not reinforcing American hegemony but has greatly weakened it.
The world at large is tired of being pushed around and living under the threat of US sanctions that can be imposed on any nation at any time over any number of disagreements that has often thrown world trade out of balance. This has been building up for a long time and the upending of the US dollar has just been moved up a notch closer to its ultimate dethroning.
This is not opinion but consensus coming from smarter people than yourself.
Unlike you who’ve obviously never done a lick of research in your life but provide shallow hypocritical opinions of your own and brainless ones at that.

…And as i mentioned previously, not my opinion, but by consensus i agree with, when this war is over, the US dollars days of safe haven status will begin to falter.
There’s going to be a shift to other safe havens and the temporary strengthening seen currently is going to unwind.
The widely despised misuse of sanctioning powers the US wields the dollar with , along with the overall attached growing debt weighing heavily on it… fills the buck with enough holes its eventually going to sink and sink fast when it starts.

#127 Linda on 03.12.22 at 10:12 am

#94 ‘Non’ – agree 100% with you on the excuses & why they are excuses! As for the university degrees – particularly those that are not likely to result in high paid income upon graduation – agree that a lot of folks missed the boat on that one. Parents encouraged their young to get a degree so they could make a better living & not work as hard as the parents had to. Except these days the golden ticket to success is having a trade certification & the will to use it. Friend was having some work done. Commented that the electrician who she estimated was about 35 years old rolled up in a BMW. The two trucks for said electricians business were fully kitted out with all the equipment, fully paid for (she is great at getting the details) & ran about $120K each. That ‘blue collar’ guy was light years ahead of most university graduates, even those whose degrees had practical applications in the world we live in. No student debt, no debt, all the work he could handle. Who’d have thought?

#128 canuck on 03.12.22 at 10:42 am

+++

Well therein lies the issue.

Most people CAN’T afford to “buy” an RV.

They’re financing it….over 20 years.
And as you have said.
Most dont own the same RV for 20 years…
They trade it in and refinance a new one.
Again and again and again.
Always paying the dealership money, never owning until that last payment, usually at exorbitant rates.
For what amounts to an extravagant toy that sits in the driveway for most of the year.
A win win for….the dealer or the finance company.

Renting an RV for 2 weeks or even a month makes more sense.
Put those monthly payments into something worthwhile like an affordable retirement.
If anything goes wrong with it…. call the rental agency to come pick it up and bring you one that works.

Yes I’ve owned new vehicles.
Last work and personal truck I bought in 2014 I put 50% cash down and financed the rest at 0.9% .
My total interest payments over 4 years was $400.
Its in excellent shape.
I’m still driving it and plan on driving it for at least another 10 years. Payment free for 15 plus years is the way to get ahead.
Not paying some anonymous shylock a pound of flesh every month ….forever.

Thats why I come to a financial advice blog.
You?
___________________________________________

Well it certainly isn’t to argue about what is a better lifestyle…. but you do you. I’m just telling you how the financing works. Same thing happens with cars. You can now finance your car or truck for 9 years. Do people keep their cars 9 years? No… except you, apparently. They buy new and refinance. Do they end up upside down? Sometimes. That’s their choice, not yours. I get that you don’t think that’s a great way to manage your life but then again, those people don’t think your frugal way of living is a great way to mange life either. Again, it’s choice and perspective.

BTW, we get alot more approvals than declines so most people can afford an RV. When I was in banking, I recall getting a 500k motorhome financed for a multi millionaire. He understood that you don’t use your well performing investments to purchase and enjoy a depreciating asset.

#129 Satori on 03.12.22 at 11:21 am

#111 TalkingPie on 03.11.22 at 11:24 pm

Sound like you are on the right track. You got a level head, and you know what you want to be doing. Most people do the same drudgery for years. Then they die. Good for you! In hindsight, you will see everything you’ve done was a benefit.

#127 Linda on 03.12.22 at 10:12 am

I have to somewhat agree with you. Nowadays its WHO you KNOW.

I work in the public sector, I am quitting and am being replaced by a 40 year old sandwich maker. My gay boss’s girl-friend’s wife, fresh from Guadalupe, ‘needs a job’! Yup.

Skills don’t matter. 5 days to training someone who doesn’t even know how to send an email. She by-passed HR and has zip experience.

The attitude “who cares about taxpayers money” is alive and Strong… stewards of taxpayers dollars, no longer exists. Just slap your friend’s friend butt in the seat, no skills required.

I asked to be on-call to ‘help’ her transition. ? She doesn’t take notes, no questions, just sits and watches, like a deer in the headlights. I am so glad I am out of there.

#130 Catalyst on 03.12.22 at 11:50 am

Don’t underestimate the role of social supports. CERB killed work ethic pretty hard. Many people work 6months a yr or less off and on EI. I know a few in my family that have made more on unemployment than they ever have working. Also, if you get onto long term government supports like housing, there is a strong disincentive to earn more.

There needs to be a lifetime cap on some of these programs to stop the abuse.

Secondly, there is strong awareness for the fact that the system is run by and for the boomers. Can’t pay for your property tax? Dont worry boomer, just defer it until your death. Young person cant afford to live? What do you think you’re entitled to a house? See the difference?

#131 Tony on 03.12.22 at 12:58 pm

Re: #98 willworkforpickles on 03.11.22 at 9:24 pm

I see the exact same scenario for the U.S. dollar. Medium and long term the U.S. dollar will fall off a cliff. My guess is the U.S. dollar will be supplanted as the world’s reserve currency in 4 years’ time. I’d put the timeframe in the 3 to 5 year range.

#132 Coastal gal on 03.12.22 at 1:13 pm

University degree appears now to be a requirement for entry level jobs in the public sector and therefore more students are advised to go to University if you want a good job.
I worked for federal and provincial governments for many years in administrative positions. I did not have a University degree but was able to with hard work get a lower level management position. I retired five years ago. Now I would not be able to get any of those positions no matter how hard I worked. I started as an entry-level Clerk with both provincial and federal government and worked my way up in both, but these positions would require University degree now even though they are not actually needed to perform the job. No paths now to move up without a degree. Sad

#133 David Greene on 03.12.22 at 2:57 pm

Wow, truly a sad and pathetic statement from you, Garth. I never thought I’d see the day you’d shit on higher learning.

Also, factually incorrect. Higher learning helps improve brain functioning, ward off brain disease and cognitive effects of aging, and it’s a source of pride.

But please, do make it out to be just job training. Truly sad.

#64 tbone on 03.11.22 at 5:58 pm

I know a kid that got a degree in history . He ended up as a teacher . Not a bad gig for a useless degree.

All degrees are useless unless applied to real life. – Garth

If students actually paid the full cost of their own higher education then tweaking their brains would be a noble investment. But most of the (huge) expense is borne by society – taxpayers. So we’d like a ROI. – Garth

#134 willworkforpickles on 03.12.22 at 7:34 pm

#131 Tony
“My guess is the U.S. dollar will be supplanted as the world’s reserve currency in 4 years’ time. I’d put the timeframe in the 3 to 5 year range.”
……………………………………………………………………………………………………..

That it is projected to come is clear to see. And it will. An accurate timeline pinpointing near when isn’t as easy to nail down. I could go as far to say 2 to 3 years, maybe 3.5 years max.

#135 mark on 03.13.22 at 12:13 am

Sheesh. The goal of life is not a house. So vacuous. – Garth

Never said it was. Point 1: the behavioural response from some isn’t surprising.

Point 2: those who’ve overseen the mess should be ashamed. Both points can exist separately. We know low rates, sky high debt and shelter prices have not been a public good.

#136 Philco on 03.13.22 at 11:13 am

DELETED (Stop posting Fox News)

#137 mattbg on 03.13.22 at 11:20 am

On the work ethic, I can relate to the feeling of malaise. And I am someone mid-career, nearly mortgage-free, and with savings. It’s hard to put my finger on what it is. It’s related to politics and the lack of vision for where we are going. Whatever vision exists is toward things that are not that important to me.

Aside, the comments on the US dollar losing reserve status are extreme. There is no better currency right now. It is for sure damaging to its reserve status to say that the US dollar can no longer be a reserve for Russia. However, what other currency would be more judicial? China is more arbitrary than the US. The Euro does not have a country behind it.

It will be interesting to see if gold plays a part.

I do think that US status will be gradually chipped away even further – especially now that it can no longer be trusted as a reserve for anyone who may get on the wrong side of the US – and can see how there could be more fragmentation. They need to onshore more capability that has been outsourced. That will affect their view of the role of the US$.

If they don’t get a handle on inflation, that would make the situation worse.

Interesting to see partial detachment of the Canadian dollar from oil during the Russia-Ukraine issue. We need to find a replacement for oil if we’re going to leave so much of our reserves in the ground.