Chill

Exactly two years ago Covid was ripping into markets and society. Panic everywhere. This blog told you to chill and stop having a cow. In response a reader named Janice lashed out. Said she…

“This is no time for your normally appreciated wit. We need you to get on the bandwagon and show some understanding of the seriousness of this dire situation, and also show some compassion & empathy. Money & investing is not on the priority list for most in such dire circumstances. There will not be a short term turnaround. The economic & supply chain disruptions are just starting. This is real, and the widespread implications are unfathomable. It is f’ing serious and deserves a f’ing serious response! Do the right thing – please.”

If the right thing was to run in circles and scream, this blog failed. Instead in the second week of March, at the end of the BeforeTimes, I wrote: “Pandemics never last. Nor do wars. There’s no benefit to panicking or going to cash. The drop happened. Too late to sell. Besides, you’ll just miss the rebound, whenever it occurs. Is it time to buy? Maybe. Takes guts and a long-term view. Volatility is still huge. More shocks could be coming. The best strategy, bar none, is to do nothing. If you have a nicely balanced portfolio, ignore it.”

Central banks would crash rates, I said. They did. Governments will embark on massive stimulus programs and historic levels of spending. They did. And the pandemic will eventually end. It is.

As always, I was warm, human and deeply empathetic: “Panic is pointless. Paralyzing. If it leads you to take rash actions like vaporizing your retirement strategy, it’s also destructive. Panic solves nothing. Nor does coming to this blog to unload your insecurities, fear and trembles.”

Okay, it’s time to settle up. How’d we do in the last 24 months? Were panic, cash and moaning piteously the correct responses? Or was it best just to shrug, stay invested and carry on?

First, the equity markets. On March 10th of 2020 the TSX on Bay Street sat at 13,993 and was 12 days away from hitting its Covid bottom. Today – even with a hot European war raging – the index is 21,519, for a two-year gain of 53.7%.

In New York two years ago the benchmark S&P 500 had also been reduced by the virus and also was not yet close to the bottom, sitting at 2,712. Today? The index – even after being mashed 10% by a certain Russian dictator – is 55.8% higher.

Oil is bizarre, of course. Two years ago a barrel of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) was yours for $32.34 US. Today, thanks to the Ukraine war, increased global demand and geopolitical disruption, it’s $110.30. That’s a gain of 241%.

How do houses compare? After all, the slimy little pathogen set off a revolution in real estate demand as five million people went into WFH mode, as aggressive nesting turned into FOMO, as mortgages sank into the 1% range and an unprecedented migration into the burbs and the sticks took place. The average detached in the GTA, for example, cost $1.1 million two years ago and is now $1.79 million. The increase: 62.2%.

Those are the facts. Meanwhile if Janice went to cash in 2020 she’s made about 2% (in total) by stuffing her HISA. Inflation in 2020 of 0.7% is now over 5% and on its way higher. So poor J avoided no risk and took a hit in terms of purchasing power by panicking.

By the way, a balanced and diversified, no-stress, steady-as-she-goes portfolio ended up returning 21% over the last two years of pandemic which is not bad for snoring your way through a global health crisis. This experience is consistent with what happened during the 2008-10 credit crisis. And Nine Eleven. The dot-com bubble, Y2K plus every other life-altering disaster, catastrophe, crisis and ‘dire, unfathomable and f’ing serious’ mess humanity has faced over the past decades.

Conclusion: it’s never different this time. At least, not yet. Maybe it never will be.

Meanwhile, what happened to most people during the last two years?

According to a new Angus Reid poll, 41% say their lives are worse. Almost 40% state their finances have suffered. Four in five believe the pandemic pulled people apart and brought out the worst in human nature. Given this finding, says the pollster, “you really start to see that degradation, that breakdown of whatever sense of social cohesion we thought we might have felt this time two years ago.”

And now we have war. Inflation. Two dollar gas. Rising rates. People fretting about nukes.

There is always something to worry about. There always was. It is not the circumstances, but how you deal with them, that truly matters.

About the picture: “This is Zoe, my fur niece from Vancouver Island,” writes Heather. “She’s the chillest dog you’ll ever meet. If only we were all as chill as Zoe, the world would be a more peaceful place.  Your free, daily blog is witty, informative, entertaining and appreciated more than you realize. What sets your blog apart from others is the the dog-of-the-day pic. Hope Zoe makes the cut.”

176 comments ↓

#1 Neptunian on 03.10.22 at 1:46 pm

Well said Mr. G. , as always. Stay diversified, stay invested, and stay away from looking at headlines and stock charts if those are too much.

#2 Concerned Citizen on 03.10.22 at 1:52 pm

Italian PPI came in at 41% today. And the ECB is still printing money.

U.S. CPI came in at 7.9% today. And the Fed hasn’t raised rates since late 2018.

This is what dereliction of duty looks like. This is what happens when policymakers care more about pumping home and stock prices than they do about maintaining price stability. Just shameful.

#3 Dave on 03.10.22 at 1:54 pm

So if your predictions are correct for covid.

What about with Ukraine?

– Russia will be isolated as much as possible till Putin is gone. They have huge oil reserves so will Oil stay high for years?
– Inflation is unbelievably high…will central banks stop pretending and actually do a .5 increase?
– Are we heading for a recession?
– What impact will all this have on Real Estate in Canada? Is there a significant correction?

#4 L Dub on 03.10.22 at 1:57 pm

Well said Garth. Markets, housing, war…….there is a lot on our minds right now no doubt, and after 2+ years of uncertainty and instability, the shock absorber of the human heart and mind is feeling pretty worn out for a lot of us.

That said, there is always choice. We can choose how to reflect the world around us, even in trying times. It may sound corny and simple, but for me personally, as I age, a lot of cliches about life, love, family, self esteem, wealth (personal and financial) etc …… show that they are pretty damn accurate.

Make choices about how you want to be as an individual. Own those choices. Empower yourself, it is the one thing you can control in a world that can feel the opposite sometimes.

#5 mitzerboyakaQueencitykidd on 03.10.22 at 2:01 pm

Dogs are great
beer is good

people can be so silly with their drama and emotions
we all come from Stardust and to dust we return.

#6 Ian on 03.10.22 at 2:17 pm

Thanks for the calm words and reflection on the posts I read awhile ago. Title of next book “It’s not different this time! “

#7 ogdoad on 03.10.22 at 2:17 pm

How you deal with them indeed…baby blues flashes me an eye smile the world goes blank…oxytocin swells in me like a tide…every molecule is connected…its just wearing off now, two hours later.

These are hug times boys, girls and others. Grab that squeeze and don’t let go…the swell will come. Guaranteed!

Og

#8 Chilling Out on 03.10.22 at 2:26 pm

Over the last two years – when was the MSM and gov right?

People are hurting because the gov mandates killed small business and jobs.

Oil did exactly what it was supposed to do – demonizing its financial support since 2015 led to producers having no interest in further exploration and development.

BTW Oil Prices were $90+ before Ukraine…

#9 Former Navy Chief on 03.10.22 at 2:27 pm

When you sail into a storm, you should secure all hatches, put away or lash down everything that’s not welded, and keep your head down.

Oh and yeah, eat lots of crackers, they keep you from vomiting because of seasickness.

#10 TurnerNation on 03.10.22 at 2:27 pm

The wide lens. Our global rulers are playing the long game — as the world gets remade. Never lose sight.

Ohhh — control over our Feeding. What a surprise.
Life in a Former First World County, we’ve been under non stop attack — our way of life — since it began March 2020. These Globalist Ghouls ain’t stopping. Year 3 now.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/americans-may-goodbye-steak-burgers-160603348.html
“Consumers more likely to splurge on steaks and chops when the stock market is up. That’s in doubt as Russia’s invasion of Ukraine pressures markets. Meat prices are part of what’s behind soaring inflation that’s the worst in four decades, and consumers are getting sticker shock.”


— On: Permanent rolling economic lockdowns. $2 gas price is like a Lockdown Lite yes?
You will limit your car travel to ESSENTIAL trips only right? Gee weren’t we trained the past two years, on this distinction – essential vs. non-essential?
You are free to leave at any time! (If you may afford it so)

#11 Dogman01 on 03.10.22 at 2:27 pm

Pipelines\energy policy…Oh Canada!

Getting stuff you have to places where you can sell it seems to be a basic ingredient to achieve prosperity.

Toronto Sun: Our PM’s energy strategy is now a security issue:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eG9c1kPuiaA

Our elite’s strategy: make energy so expensive you have to resort to the green option no matter how unfit for purpose\unfit for use it is.

They only know how to make things worse for Canadians
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SPY_SxyNB5M

Constructively make driving your vehicle and heating your house so expensive that renewables and transit no matter how crappy will be force fed.

Is it really Climate Martyrdom or is it all a ruse to transform the West’s Middle class to an impoverished, apartment dwelling grey goo of dependent precariats, owning nothing and somehow happy.

Who are they working for? Certainly not in the interests of middle class (or those striving to enter the middle class™)
The Imposition of a utopian Globalist agenda forced on our country by an out of touch elite.

An ocean of ignorance guides western energy policy:
https://boereport.com/2022/02/10/maybe-were-better-off-if-we-cant-find-our-politicians-an-ocean-of-ignorance-guides-western-energy-policy/

Mapping the world’s oil and gas pipelines:
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2021/12/16/mapping-world-oil-gas-pipelines-interactive

#12 Søren Angst on 03.10.22 at 2:34 pm

20/20 hindsight.

Like you Garth I never wavered on the investments and for all the same reasons. Grey hair will do that to you.

———-

As for the dog picture comment, take Zoe bring it here 10 km from about 20 thermonuclear warheads and see what it does or send it to Kyiv.

Chill on the chill sanctimony. Instead, be grateful that in World’s geography you live in the sticks; thus, out of the crosshairs.

———-

And for all you LOVERS OF SELFIES:

Italy fines Clearview AI €20M and orders data deleted

“Clearview AI, which scrapes selfies off the Internet to amass a database of some 10 billion of faces to power an identity-matching service it sells to law enforcement.”

“The findings revealed that the personal data held by the company, including biometric and geolocation data, are processed illegally, without an adequate legal basis, which certainly cannot be the legitimate interest of the American company…”

https://techcrunch.com/2022/03/09/clearview-italy-gdpr/
https://www.garanteprivacy.it/home/docweb/-/docweb-display/docweb/9751323

Glad for Gov Italia.

As for you Canadesi…

Say CHEEEEZ.

[take a few selfies from the side too, Clearview AI will probably be grateful]

#13 rob4j on 03.10.22 at 2:37 pm

Thank you Mr. Turner

aka The Oracle of Canada (cf Buffett, others may have a better localized onomatopoeic word, still the appreciation is there).

Your insights and predictions (which is a bad word, since you did not base it on guesses, nor on pseudo science) were entirely accurate.

As always, you are the Voice Of Reason.

Thank you.

#14 Linda on 03.10.22 at 2:41 pm

‘Zoe’ does look chill – yet there appears to be a bit of a come hither look from the eyes. “I’m ready for my close up!”

While the past two years have had their challenges, I’m happy to report that my partner & I feel that life is better these days, especially since the great Covid lockdown appears to be nearing its end. At most we suffered inconvenience. Financially it could be argued that Covid was beneficial, in that our discretionary expenditures were sharply curtailed as a result of various lockdowns, supply chain disruptions & an effective ban on non-essential travel. I agree that for many these past two years have been disastrous from both a financial as well as personal perspective, but would like to point out that at least some of us see the glass as being half full.

#15 Doug t on 03.10.22 at 2:44 pm

I don’t have to tell you things are bad. Everybody knows things are bad. It’s a depression. Everybody’s out of work or scared of losing their job. The dollar buys a nickel’s worth, banks are going bust, shopkeepers keep a gun under the counter. Punks are running wild in the street and there’s nobody anywhere who seems to know what to do, and there’s no end to it. We know the air is unfit to breathe and our food is unfit to eat, and we sit watching our TV’s while some local newscaster tells us that today we had fifteen homicides and sixty-three violent crimes, as if that’s the way it’s supposed to be. We know things are bad – worse than bad. They’re crazy. It’s like everything everywhere is going crazy, so we don’t go out anymore. We sit in the house, and slowly the world we are living in is getting smaller, and all we say is, ‘Please, at least leave us alone in our living rooms. Let me have my toaster and my TV and my steel-belted radials and I won’t say anything. Just leave us alone.’ Well, I’m not gonna leave you alone. I want you to get mad! I don’t want you to protest. I don’t want you to riot – I don’t want you to write to your congressman because I wouldn’t know what to tell you to write. I don’t know what to do about the depression and the inflation and the Russians and the crime in the street. All I know is that first you’ve got to get mad. You’ve got to say, ‘I’m a HUMAN BEING, God damn it! My life has VALUE!’ So I want you to get up now. I want all of you to get up out of your chairs. I want you to get up right now and go to the window. Open it, and stick your head out, and yell, ‘I’M AS MAD AS HELL, AND I’M NOT GOING TO TAKE THIS ANYMORE!’

#16 Dr V on 03.10.22 at 2:46 pm

3 Dave

“Russia will be isolated as much as possible till Putin is gone. They have huge oil reserves so will Oil stay high for years?”
————————————-

Looks like Canada has twice as much oil as Russia.

https://worldpopulationreview.com/country-rankings/oil-reserves-by-country

I found those estimates the most common, though did find another source saying Russia had more, but still significantly less than Canada

#17 TurnerNation on 03.10.22 at 2:50 pm

Janice = Faron, incognito?? A sad legion of Branch Covidans who’ve embraced the New Abnormal. Avoid them and your life will be and should have been just stellar.

-Go steel bros.? Hold those quotes!

https://finviz.com/quote.ashx?t=SLX&p=w&tas=0


The Global Reset Agenda marches onward.

(zerohedge.com)
Volkswagen CEO Herbert Diess told the FT in an interview published Thursday that a prolonged war in Ukraine would be “very risky” for the European and German economies – and that it ultimately might be even worse for them than COVID.

According to the FT, Diess said the economic damage from the war could be “very much worse” than the pandemic.

“The interruption to global supply chains could lead to huge price increases, scarcity of energy and inflation,” Herbert Diess, chief executive of the German carmaker, told the Financial Times.

#18 Sail Away on 03.10.22 at 2:51 pm

Well, emotional pogo sticks will be emotional pogo sticks. That’s just the way they roll. Something to do with chemicals.

Steerage endured a real tizzy of emotional overload back then. Not like today, where everyone is so much more rationally grounded, eh?

#19 Søren Angst on 03.10.22 at 2:54 pm

Gas, diesel prices.

Switzerland
CAD $3.23/liter gas (USD $9.58/US gal)
CAD $3.66/liter diesel (USD $10.86/US gal)

Italia
CAD $2.76/liter gas (USD $8.01/US gal)
CAD $2.569/liter diesel, (USD $7.567/US gal)

Quit whining Canada. You too America. Be grateful instead you are both awash in energy.

https://www.20min.ch/story/wir-sind-der-boxsack-autofahrer-lassen-benzin-frust-an-mitarbeitern-aus-294797536217

——————–

#2 Concerned Citizen

Istat (Italian StaCan minus all the PC, SJW & Bill C-16 stuff)

According to preliminary estimates, in February 2022 the national consumer price index for the whole community (NIC), before tobacco, recorded an increase of 0.9% on a monthly basis and of 5.7% on annual basis (from + 4.8% the previous month). [mostly due to energy prices…see above]

https://www.istat.it/it/archivio/266800#:~:text=L'inflazione%20acquisita%20per%20il,per%20la%20componente%20di%20fondo.

Canada Jan 2022 CPI
+5.1% vs. +4.8% for Italia that month

https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/daily-quotidien/220216/dq220216a-eng.htm?HPA=1&indid=3665-1&indgeo=0

——

The Central Banks waited too long to pull the plug. Canada = save our RE based economy. EU = sluggish growth overall (well, in Germany).

At least today ECB will start to throttle down QE.

#20 WTF on 03.10.22 at 2:55 pm

#2 “This is what dereliction of duty looks like. This is what happens when policymakers care more about pumping home and stock prices than they do about maintaining price stability. Just shameful.”

—————————————————————-
Alas:

Not just the fed…Poloz the Magnificent and Terrible Tiff did their part for Canuckistan.

https://betterdwelling.com/quantitative-sleaze-how-the-bank-of-canada-mislead-politicians-on-real-estate-qe/

As for the Fed and quantitative easing this primer from a few yrs ago:

https://youtu.be/PTUY16CkS-k

#21 Bob in Hamilton on 03.10.22 at 2:59 pm

“As always, I was warm, human and deeply empathetic.”

..don’t forget the part about your six pack abs!

#22 bob on 03.10.22 at 3:06 pm

Well said Garth.

#23 Søren Angst on 03.10.22 at 3:08 pm

You know it’s all over for Russia.

Their FSB does not see how they can win, like ever.

‘Only defeat’: Leaked Russian FSB report identifies Ukraine invasion as a ‘total failure’
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=H7qxZDGQ5oY

Full text:
https://www.facebook.com/vladimir.osechkin/posts/4811633942268327

Now they’re going to India for cash:
https://twitter.com/rianru/status/1501962605732274184
[If Russell Peters is correct, you know what the answer will be]

Not even the Chinese will give them aircraft parts:
https://www.reuters.com/business/aerospace-defense/russia-says-china-refuses-supply-aircraft-parts-after-sanctions-2022-03-10/

Putin’s days are numbered.

#24 Jens on 03.10.22 at 3:09 pm

I guess in one point Janice was spot-on:
“The economic & supply chain disruptions are just starting”
To be fair, in March 2020 we were fretting about getting enough pasta and toilet paper, but we all knew it was due to crazed consumer behaviour, and no-one believed the world might be out of wheat by summer.

#25 Al on 03.10.22 at 3:10 pm

Garth, if you still think the Bank of Canada really cares about inflation in Canada, then it’s time to face the truth.
If the Bank of Canada wanted to somehow actively respond, we would have already seen repeated rate hikes. So everything is according to plan: the rate at the next meeting will be raised cautiously by 25 basis points, so as not to worry anyone again.
Inflation will be even higher because the BoC priority is to keep the markets first and then control inflation. A completely new approach to monetary policy. The real estate bubble will continue to grow for few months, speculators will be happy.

#26 SusanM on 03.10.22 at 3:13 pm

“There is always something to worry about. There always was. It is not the circumstances, but how you deal with them, that truly matters.” (/quote, Garth).

Good rebuttal and especially echoing my parents’ advice to me in 1962. Google ‘Cuban Missile Crisis” if this date seems obscure. It felt different to anything I’d heard of in my young life. Turns out it wasn’t.

That’s what Garth is trying to convey. Just as he knows those of us with a mortgae in the early ’80’s faced insane interest rates plus inflation and flat-lined salaries.

#27 Dave on 03.10.22 at 3:21 pm

Trudeau talks tough on Russia, but of course he hasn’t expropriated a single property that Russians have used to launder their money in TO and Vancouver.

#28 Quintilian on 03.10.22 at 3:24 pm

It is different this time.
The artificially low rates accumulative damage over the last 20 years, and billions of $ in stimulus have distorted most markets, and now central bankers and governments can’t go on as usual, but they can’t correct the course either.

No it’s not business as usual.

#29 Polozified on 03.10.22 at 3:25 pm

House prices never got a reckoning. Will they ever?

Maybe if the nukes start dropping…

#30 Satori on 03.10.22 at 3:30 pm

Great post!
I fell into a panic a long time ago, now, when markets go down, I don’t open my investment mail. Why bother? Why look? The only time look at it, is when I hear it’s up.

There is always a storm brewing somewhere. There is always rain. Some experience it. Some live through it. And others are made from it.

#31 Brett in Calgary on 03.10.22 at 3:34 pm

It seems likely now, that high commodity/food prices severely dampen this bull market. I hope interest rates can normalize, but I am skeptical despite enjoying the fruits of preferred shares. Much pain on main street, inflation already eating the over leveraged.

#32 dragonfly58 on 03.10.22 at 3:34 pm

Compared to two years ago , worse in areas that matter. Income , costs. On paper { appraised value of the house } way ahead. But it really does not what the assessment notice says, it’s our home , not a portfolio.
Income is quite a bit less, Wife retired late last year, you can’t work forever . Some day we all have to bite the bullet. My pension dribbled outward, but as we all know ” it’s the everything bubble “so significant ground lost with regards to 99% of what we buy.
So in the imaginary world our net worth went up a bunch. In the real world the belt got a few notches tighter. Pretty simple ?

#33 the Awakened One on 03.10.22 at 3:37 pm

Equanimity – is the word for life – and investing.
Panic solves nothing. Thanks Garth.

#34 Triplenet on 03.10.22 at 3:45 pm

#7 Og

Wow.
Freudian economics !
…..weird
Your last sentence – is that a prediction of things to…

#35 Pricedoutmillenial on 03.10.22 at 3:47 pm

There is always something to worry about. There always was. It is not the circumstances, but how you deal with them, that truly matters.

Thanks Garth. Added to my quote book.

#36 IHCTD9 on 03.10.22 at 3:50 pm

#140 dragonfly58 on 03.10.22 at 1:46 pm
If I was further away from the Lower Mainland a pole barn is a cheap solution. But really only for storage. They are a very compromised shop substitute. And far too easy to catch fire when welding , grinding. An insulated steel building on a concrete pad is #1 , but getting more expensive by the week. No real need to own a dozer, the rare time I need one a good friend owns one.
Too old for off road stuff. Lots of dirt bikes in my past , but 1/2 a life time ago.
_______

Why are pole barns not ok in the LM? I have an original Timber framed pole barn turning 105 this year. Roof still good, concrete floor is hurting. Needs help, but it was built as a slab on grade so I will probably demo it.

I have a cousin who has a full auto shop in a pole barn. two 4 post lifts, 3 bay doors, gas heat, fully insulated, 16′ ceiling, wide open clear span inside, not a post anywhere. All steel clad walls inside and out, steel ceiling inside. 6″ thick sealed concrete floor. It is an awesome shop. Not a cheapie though.

#37 ogdoad on 03.10.22 at 3:58 pm

#34 Triplenet on 03.10.22 at 3:45 pm

Oh God, I hope so!

Og

#38 MC on 03.10.22 at 4:03 pm

“There is always something to worry about. There always was. It is not the circumstances, but how you deal with them, that truly matters.” – love this. will hang this above my desk at home.

#39 James on 03.10.22 at 4:05 pm

I would hate to be employed at PIMCO right now.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/news/pimco-stands-to-lose-billions-if-russia-defaults-on-its-debt/vi-AAUTBGT

#40 Leroy full on Indian food on 03.10.22 at 4:06 pm

BC lifts vaccines passport April 8th. What a useless tool. I made my own in 2 minutes.

#41 pPrasseur on 03.10.22 at 4:07 pm

#27 Dave – Trudeau talks tough on Russia, but of course he hasn’t expropriated a single property that Russians have used to launder their money in TO and Vancouver.

shush!!! Russians and many others… Money laundering is obviously a pillar of this economy! One more of Canada’s dirty little secrets…

But hey, after massive money printing and socializing loan risk our bank cartel is doing great, what could possibly go wrong?

#42 dragonfly58 on 03.10.22 at 4:13 pm

The exact reason I don’t know. But my local engineering dept. says they won’t grant them a permit except for things like a hay storage structure, or stable. Earthquake requirement ? They want a Engineers stamped drawing for any shop building. I am way too small a property to try to bluff my way through by saying it will be a farm building.
Your cousin’s building does not sound anything but a fraction less in cost than a similar wood frame building.
I have a couple of largish sheds I built similar to a pole barn. But built on big second hand bridge timbers { 10 x 10’s } for a base. That’s where I store a bunch of my stuff. Old pickup with my welder in the back, small Massey 30 tractor, vintage car parts, spare body for my TVR etc. But you can’t really work in them other than maintenance on the tractor. Thin and decaying blacktop floor, a floor jack just punches through it.

#43 HonestEnD on 03.10.22 at 4:15 pm

That was music to my ears. Bravo Bravo what a well worth written blog. Thanks always for your wisdom. It has gotten me through the relentless FOMO emotional swings.

#44 Brian on 03.10.22 at 4:19 pm

For #19 Søren Angst

The Italian bond market crashed today. The Italian truck owners’ organization says that from Monday they will all stop bc gas is too $. They emphasise that it’s not a strike, they just can’t keep working. This means food shortages in cities unless solved

https://www.ansa.it/sito/notizie/economia/2022/03/10/caro-carburante-trasportounito-da-lunedi-stop-autotrasporto-_4a36264b-05dc-466b-b847-4c487e031926.html

#45 earthboundmisfit on 03.10.22 at 4:19 pm

Sit back and enjoy the gong show and circular firing squad that is the Conservative Party of Canada. It’s going to be more fun to watch than the NHL playoffs. And I consider myself to be a Red Tory.

#46 The Original Jake on 03.10.22 at 4:19 pm

“41% say their lives are worse. Almost 40% state their finances have suffered.”

I find those stats are actually positive and could be written equally as…. “59% say their lives are better. Almost 60% state their finances have improved.”

#47 Paddy on 03.10.22 at 4:21 pm

Garth, are you sure Janice’s name isn’t Karen….jeesh
There’s always shite going on in the world, stuff had been happening for millennia. It’s the way of world. After this war is over, there will be another crisis or event or whatever you wanna call it. There’s also a lot of good stuff going on as well, but people like to focus on the negatives.

#48 Grumpy Panda on 03.10.22 at 4:22 pm

If the world ends I’m going to be so disappointed I didn’t take CPP early.

#49 Apocalypse NOW on 03.10.22 at 4:26 pm

Chill

Yes. Things will be getting much worse in the next days. The war will be partly over by June. And so will most of us.

Be ready for no heat, no power, no food supply chain.

PREPARE

#50 IHCTD9 on 03.10.22 at 4:28 pm

There is always something to worry about. There always was. It is not the circumstances, but how you deal with them, that truly matters.
_____

Ah, you’ve been reading some Epictetus Mr T. Here’s another goodie:

“There is only one way to happiness and that is to cease worrying about things which are beyond the power of our will.”

And of course:

“Therefore do not worry about tomorrow, for tomorrow will worry about itself. Each day has enough trouble of its own.”

#51 bipolar on 03.10.22 at 4:39 pm

Wow! Yes there are things to be upset about these days.
However I have a mood disorder and B&D ETF portfolio. So there is at least one thing not to be upset about.

#52 wallflower on 03.10.22 at 5:08 pm

Janice, meet Zoe.
On second, thought, Zoe does not deserve Abominable Janice.

#53 Brian on 03.10.22 at 5:09 pm

YELLEN: I DON’T EXPECT A RECESSION IN THE U.S.

Recession secured!

#54 Brian on 03.10.22 at 5:11 pm

Here’s a dog video just for you Garth!

https://twitter.com/i/status/1501827642085019650

#55 Sail Away on 03.10.22 at 5:25 pm

In these troubled times, the Sail Aways are considering adding a donkey or two to the menagerie.

Ms. SA has a bit of a horse addiction and we’ve always had one or two for her and also our daughter, who seems to have inherited the same condition. The last old girl croaked in the fall, so we’re horseless at the moment.

We greatly enjoy remote multi-day to multi-week hikes and hunts in roadless areas. However… backpacking an elk or moose out many miles, along with camp, is a huge amount of work. The dogs carry their own food in saddlebags but we still have to pack the camp and our gear.

Donkeys might work. Full tipi camp in the alpine 10 miles from the nearest road? Pure paradise. And they live 30 years, so we’d all get old together…
Considering…

#56 UmiouiuS on 03.10.22 at 5:26 pm

“There is always something to worry about. There always was. It is not the circumstances, but how you deal with them, that truly matters.”

Amen to that, brother Garth. That’s up there with:
“Love everyone. Trust no one. And always cut the deck.”

#57 Yukon Elvis on 03.10.22 at 5:45 pm

March 10 (Reuters) – Meta Platforms (FB.O) will allow Facebook and Instagram users in some countries to call for violence against Russians and Russian soldiers in the context of the Ukraine invasion, according to internal emails seen by Reuters on Thursday, in a temporary change to its hate speech policy.
The social media company is also temporarily allowing some posts that call for death to Russian President Vladimir Putin or Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko in countries including Russia, Ukraine and Poland, according to a series of internal emails to its content moderators.

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/exclusive-facebook-instagram-temporarily-allow-calls-violence-against-russians-2022-03-10/

#58 Bottoms_Up on 03.10.22 at 5:48 pm

Seems to me that Janice had a lot of foresight. That is not to say she was right or wrong regarding what to do with long term investments (as i do not see that she posted any solutions). But your point is well taken about staying the course, no matter what.

#59 Bottoms_Up on 03.10.22 at 5:55 pm

#46 The Original Jake on 03.10.22 at 4:19 pm
————————–
Great point, polls are polls and polls are biased.

Hillary was suppose to win. Trudeau was suppose to lose.

Polls only reflect:
#1) The audience it is targetted to
#2) Those who actually respond

Polls are inherently flawed, and any time, anyone, anywhere, who reads the results of polls should ask themselves these questions:

1) who did the poll target (and not target)
2) who responded and why? why would someone not respond to the poll? why would some respond to the poll?

Super duper inherently flawed. (unless properly controlled and conducted, which is very hard to do)

#60 cramar on 03.10.22 at 6:01 pm

And also 40% of workers say they will not go back to the office now. Things have sure changed in the last 2 years.

#61 Barb on 03.10.22 at 6:03 pm

So, Janice, exactly what would you want Garth “to do”?
For you specifically?
He has–and will continue to–help us in immeasurable ways. You just have to comprehend it.

Sure hope you don’t talk to your Mommy like that.

#62 Cassowary in Canada on 03.10.22 at 6:16 pm

What fits into mother Russia?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BXqKkYYALMU

#63 IHCTD9 on 03.10.22 at 6:17 pm

#42 dragonfly58 on 03.10.22 at 4:13 pm

Your cousin’s building does not sound anything but a fraction less in cost than a similar wood frame building.
———

Aye, not cheap for a pole barn, but massively cheaper than a conventional stick frame building. In my area, a garage/shop needs the same foundation as a house, that’s big bucks. A pole barn avoids that. No excavation, no footings, no foundation walls. It’s probably a different story in the LM with your milder Climate. Plus, the frame and roof were up in a week (Mennonite crew raised it). Less then half the concrete, and half the labour. He did shell out big for steel inside and out, but he did that work himself since it’s so easy to do. The pole barn saved huge.

I demo’d the original summer kitchen on our old farmhouse. I put the new one on piles just like a pole barn. It cost me 200.00 for the backhoe to dig 3 six foot deep trenches, 100.00 for 8 pcs 10” sono tubes, and 200.00 for the concrete to fill them. 500.00 for a legal foundation to build on. The rest was conventional stick framing. If I had done a regular foundation as required by the OBC, it would have run 15 grand (20 years ago).

Like I said, probably different rules out your way. If you can build on a slab on grade, that’s a no-brainer. We occasionally see 6” of frost heave, so the OBC says you basically have to put a basement under your garage.

#64 Barb on 03.10.22 at 6:22 pm

#55 Sail Away
A friend nearby has two donkeys…
FOB acreage.

#65 Linda on 03.10.22 at 6:27 pm

#55 ‘Sail’ – have you considered mules? Mules can live up to 50 years in captivity, can carry up to 20% of their body weight & have relatively few health issues. So if you are thinking long term they might be what you are looking for.

#66 Peter in Toronto on 03.10.22 at 6:29 pm

DELETED (Anti-vaccine)

#67 Warren-the-lagging_indicator on 03.10.22 at 6:32 pm

I can hardly believe I rarely pay for gas because I get free charge-up of my EV at a bank. Yes, a bank no less. That is how I am dealing with 2 dollar gas. I know you all like to mock EV’s but it sure takes the edge off right now. How long is that gonna last? Garth is right, this will all subside and markets will march higher once again. Why not buy some floaters if you can and be thankful we live here in Canada.

#68 Philco on 03.10.22 at 6:41 pm

What about the ozone layer Garth?
Im cutting my pavement as my wabbler mains leaking. 500L per hr.
Last water bill $2000 for 90 days!
And you think you got problems

#69 PeterfromCalgary on 03.10.22 at 6:47 pm

The market is adjusting to the high cost of energy resulting from the loss of Russian energy. Stocks are not declining because of the tragic suffering of Ukraine but because of oil and gas prices.

I wonder how long it will take Putin to find a way to sell his oil despite sanctions? I think their are a lot of evil people who would be willing to help him for a profit. The bigger the gap between Ural crude and Brent the more temptation it will be for someone to engage in immoral arbitrage.

#70 Craig on 03.10.22 at 6:55 pm

Re #3 Dave
“Russia will be isolated as much as possible until Putin is gone”

Agree, but the problem is that his most likely successors Shoigu,Patrushev and Gerisamov just to name a few appear to be just as ruthless if not more so than putin. Can’t see Navalnay getting out of jail for a long time, if ever.

#71 Sail Away on 03.10.22 at 7:15 pm

#66 Philco on 03.10.22 at 6:41 pm

Im cutting my pavement as my wabbler mains leaking. 500L per hr.
Last water bill $2000 for 90 days!
And you think you got problems

——–

Been there a few times with our many large trees and their with water service-destroying roots. If your service is old copper under pavement, the break might be due to acidic soils corroding the pipe, so it might just be the first of a cascading series of breaks. There are a number of plumbers who specialize in trenchless waterline replacement, which avoids cutting and patching the driveway.

Also, usually a municipality will reverse charges for a break on private property. Worth a call.

#72 dragonfly58 on 03.10.22 at 7:21 pm

Yes, slab on grade is fine. If you are going to install hoists a upgrade on the slab thickness is a wise precaution. Still not cheap for the concrete these days, but nothing like you would be facing. I am still aiming for 30 x 50 , about the max I have room for. But what is left of my savings when the house is finally finished will be the deciding factor. The old 1/3 of the house is where all the time and money is going. A 80 + year old farm house that wasn’t all that well built in the first place. Part of it had a foundation but the front 1/2 was built on timbers. Not uncommon around here in the old days with our very damp environment. Front yard used to be very swampy. I excavated and poured a foundation . All by hand, the house was still more or less intact although I removed the lower 2 feet of the outer wall and a foot of the interior wall so I could build forms. Looking back it would have been easier to just demolish that part of the house and start fresh. I am about 90% done now , but it has been a long road. The other 2/3 was built in the 1980’s by the previous owner. That part is ” dated ” according to my wife but apart from paint and one section of the roof still lots of life left.

#73 Sail Away on 03.10.22 at 7:26 pm

#64 Linda on 03.10.22 at 6:27 pm

#55 ‘Sail’ – have you considered mules? Mules can live up to 50 years in captivity, can carry up to 20% of their body weight & have relatively few health issues. So if you are thinking long term they might be what you are looking for.

———

Yes, mules are also in the running, as are llamas, and we even considered goats, but these are becoming restricted in backcountry due to possible disease transmission to wild goats. There will be lots of time and discussion before making a decision.

#74 Nonplused on 03.10.22 at 7:27 pm

“There is always something to worry about. There always was. It is not the circumstances, but how you deal with them, that truly matters.”

Truth. My parents had to hide under their school desks for safety drills back in the 50’s and 60’s. Not like that would do anything if you did get hit by a nuke, but governments love to keep us panicking about one hobgoblin or another, whether real or imaginary.

Here in Alberta, there is a place called “Head-Smashed-In Buffalo Jump”. It has a tourist center and everything, but it’s a bit off the beaten track. Here the natives would wait, sometime years, until a herd of buffalo would venture near. The braves would then go out and spook the buffalo in the hopes of causing a stampede over the cliff. If successful, they would have enough dead buffalo to meet all their needs for a year. Food, clothing, teepee coverings, etc.

Herds of people are much the same. This is why nothing on the news is ever ok. As soon as one panic is over, another is started. If it isn’t devil worshipers or terrorist or Russians interfering in elections, it’s a pandemic or a war in a distant land. You can’t let the plebs get too comfortable or they don’t see the advertisements enough.

But it seldom affects you personally. Covid sure did, but I think we are already beginning to see that those that suffered the most were the kids we locked in their rooms with nothing but an internet connection for a whole year. We have yet to see the full effects of that, but I don’t think it will be good. The internet already had too much influence, but its victory over the young is now total. Is it any wonder they are all on depression and anxiety meds? That the 6 year olds all walk around with their mouths open and their tongue sticking out? We did something to them, and it will be some time before we figure out exactly what it was.

Sometimes the cure is worse than the disease, and if the cure is decided upon while panicking, it almost always is. That is why people who can keep their heads in rough situations are so valued in the emergency response services, but the folks screaming at the sight of the accident are always given a blanket and told to keep warm at a good distance. There is absolutely nothing they can do to help.

#75 Michael in-north-york on 03.10.22 at 7:29 pm

#67 PeterfromCalgary on 03.10.22 at 6:47 pm

The market is adjusting to the high cost of energy resulting from the loss of Russian energy. Stocks are not declining because of the tragic suffering of Ukraine but because of oil and gas prices.

I wonder how long it will take Putin to find a way to sell his oil despite sanctions? I think their are a lot of evil people who would be willing to help him for a profit. The bigger the gap between Ural crude and Brent the more temptation it will be for someone to engage in immoral arbitrage.
===

Main Russian oil pipelines are running west. If that market is no longer accessible, all that oil cannot be immediately diverted elsewhere. No alternative pipelines and not enough marine terminals or rail cars.

So, the less oil Europe / U.S. Canada buys right now, the less money the kremlin fascist junta has to fund its aggression. That helps Ukraine, and with some luck, may cause a revolution in Russia.

If Ukraine falls, Putin’s junta stays in power, and the embargo stays in place for months and years? Eventually they will build the infrastructure to sell their oil elsewhere, although at a lower price.

#76 Flop… on 03.10.22 at 7:37 pm

Thor, check your inbox.

I just sent you a dog photo.

Actually it was a car photo, with a sticker that talked about a dog, that maybe occasionally rides in the car.

Then again, maybe they just want to get a dog so they don’t get lonely in the car…

M47BC

#77 Marc Roger on 03.10.22 at 7:45 pm

Garth, you and your team are a national treasure.

#78 Nonplused on 03.10.22 at 7:49 pm

#16 Dr V on 03.10.22 at 2:46 pm
3 Dave

“Russia will be isolated as much as possible till Putin is gone. They have huge oil reserves so will Oil stay high for years?”
————————————-

Looks like Canada has twice as much oil as Russia.

https://worldpopulationreview.com/country-rankings/oil-reserves-by-country

I found those estimates the most common, though did find another source saying Russia had more, but still significantly less than Canada

***

Putin has deployed the Trudeau-Biden weapon system making our reserves irrelevant.

———————————-

#65 Warren-the-lagging_indicator on 03.10.22 at 6:32 pm
I can hardly believe I rarely pay for gas because I get free charge-up of my EV at a bank.

***

There is no such thing as a “battery powered car”. Sooner or later higher energy costs will work their way into the cost to charge those things too. If you have a charging station at home, they already are.

And anyway how much time are you spending at the bank? Are the lineups that long?

#79 Flop… on 03.10.22 at 7:52 pm

Ain’t been boozing much, but at a certain point it probably makes economic sense to start drinking the gas and put booze in the tank of the car.

I already know which Rolling Stones song I’ll have cranked while I wait for either the ambulance or the tow truck driver to show up.

Start Me Up.

If you start me up, I’ll never stop…

M47BC

#80 willworkforpickles on 03.10.22 at 7:54 pm

I just have to comment on one of a number of flaws in Garth’s blog yesterday where he stated …

“Like the economy. It grew at almost 7% annualized in the final, Omicron-addled quarter of 2021”

Leaving it at that gives 2 false impressions.

For one , under that impression left in that manner, then it would appear the economy must be continuing to improve into this quarter which it is not.
And two , as I’ve said many times . The skewed and subsequently manipulated GDP figure of 7%, has factored into its mix, a skewed/manipulated CPI figure that allows for a higher GDP than it really is. Adjusted with the manipulated lower CPI than the actual un-manipulated real inflation levels are really at. Governments use these manipulated numbers to pretend the economy is growing and the sheep are none the more wise to it.
Blind leading the blind stay blind.
The point is…the more society allows the government to get away with their lies hiding behind the guise of skewed officialdom, the bigger the economic train wreck there’s going to be.

My statement was fact. Your statements are opinion. – Garth

#81 Prince Polo on 03.10.22 at 8:00 pm

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=kSNo2FPQDQw

Putin’s Road to War: Julia Ioffe (interview) | FRONTLINE

#82 Shawn on 03.10.22 at 8:02 pm

Russian Crude Math

#67 PeterfromCalgary on 03.10.22 at 6:47 pm
The market is adjusting to the high cost of energy resulting from the loss of Russian energy. Stocks are not declining because of the tragic suffering of Ukraine but because of oil and gas prices.

I wonder how long it will take Putin to find a way to sell his oil despite sanctions? I think their are a lot of evil people who would be willing to help him for a profit. The bigger the gap between Ural crude and Brent the more temptation it will be for someone to engage in immoral arbitrage.

**************************
Agreed and if Russia officially sells half as much crude at twice the price they are out exactly no dollars. Sales to China or others still willing to openly buy.

And as for other half. Maybe someone buys it secretly at $50 and sells it at the world price. A lot of temptation there when you talking a lot of barrels times say $50 profit per barrel.

Russia may not be out that much money after all.

#83 stlbstl on 03.10.22 at 8:08 pm

@original jake “I find those stats are actually positive and could be written equally as…. “59% say their lives are better. Almost 60% state their finances have improved.”

Your leaving out the no change crowd, huge demographic

#84 the Jaguar on 03.10.22 at 8:10 pm

@#55 Sail Away on 03.10.22 at 5:25 pm

In 2004 three mules from southern Alberta were imported to Hong Kong to assist with construction of the airport. The mules delivered the building materials to the construction site of the Ngong Ping 360 Cable Car system on the rugged highland in 2004. Apparently they (mules) are stronger and have better stamina and agility than donkeys. Maybe a mule is more up your alley? ++++++

Can’t believe that nobody on this dog blog has brought up the amazing discovery of the Endurance (Shackleton’s ship).

++’The wreckage of polar explorer Ernest Shackleton’s ship Endurance, which was crushed by Antarctic ice and sank some 10,000 feet (3,000 metres) to the ocean floor more than a century ago, has been found, a team searching for it said on Wednesday.

The three-masted sailing ship was lost in November 1915, during Shackleton’s failed attempt to make the first land crossing of Antarctica.

Despite being stranded on the ice, the 28-man crew of the Endurance made it back home alive and theirs is considered one of the great survival stories of human history.

They trekked across the sea ice, living off seals and penguins, before setting sail in three lifeboats and reaching the uninhabited Elephant Island.

From there, Shackleton and a handful of the crew rowed some 1,300 km (800 miles) on the lifeboat James Caird to South Georgia, where they sought help from a whaling station.

On his fourth rescue attempt, Shackleton managed to return to pick up the rest of the crew from Elephant Island in August 1916, two years after his Imperial Trans-Antarctic Expedition left London.”++

Moral of the story? Stop whining peeps.

#85 Tomás de Torquemada on 03.10.22 at 8:12 pm

CPI is of course accelerating and on track to hit 10 % in US this year/read at least 20 % real inflation if we use measures from the 80-es when:

1. The inflation was lower.
2. The rates were in the upper double digits, like 18 % government yielding bonds for example

Now our inflation is not lower than that of US, we just ‘measure the CPI more creatively and differently’ .

Check the prices at the store/gas station/cost of services and tell me something that has increased by only 5.1 % as the ‘official’ CPI states.

So we have a situation with arguably equal or even higher inflation when we compare apples to apples and oranges to oranges than the 80-es and rates of 0.5 % instead of 18 %.

Is that a joke?

How do you exactly fight real inflation of 15-20 % with rates of 0.5 %, even 3-5 % which is unthinkable of at this point?

Hint: You don’t, you only accelerate it/the inflation.

The reality (100% certainty) that we face:

1. Interest rates increase will be a token increase to maybe 1 % and even the ‘astronomical’ 1.5 – 2 % but only temporarily and only to be reduces again when the next recession comes.

2. Inflation will stay high for a very long time despite all the tricks and lies about measuring it and reporting it and claiming that ‘it is temporary, one time, structural’ etc.

If we really face total of 200-500 % inflation in this cycle without meaningful increase of rates in order to reduce debt levels then:

1. All inflation protected assets will keep increasing, some skyrocketing.

The further increasing assets will be of course real estate, food and energy related as well as moderately the stock market.

2. Everyone depending on ‘indexing’ of government benefits will be obliterated, as will the savers.

Central banks serve the banks first and the government after, the price stability mandate is a joke.

The money that you hold is theirs, not yours.

It is very hard to enforce your mandate if your job and salary depends on not enforcing it.

Think about it: What will happen if central banks increase rates to 5% or even 8 or 10 %?
How about 15 or 20 % to have real positive interest rates as in the whole history of money except in uber-hyper-super inflationary times?

The horror, the Armageddon due to extreme levels of debt.

As the debt can not be repaid at higher rates it has to be either defaulted on or inflated.

Inflation is the clear choice and it has to be significant without or with very little rate increases in order to reduce the debt to manageable levels 2.5 – 4 fold.

That translates to a decade or more of 10-15 % inflation with rates stuck at zero, with explosion of prices of inflation protected assets.

Houses will keep increasing. Commodities, food, energy explode.

House in GTA costing 3 millions? Sure. Bread at 8 bucks? A certainty.

Of course central bankers can always proof me wring and increase rates meaningfully… which is not gonna happen.

When you want to do something you simply do it, When you don’t you just talk about it.

What happened so far is 0.25 % rate increase from literally zero and talks about ‘potential’ 0.5 % waaay down the road ‘if needed’.

The next big lie that is never going to happen and if it happens it will be quickly reversed.

The financial genocide against savers, retirees, renters and consumers would continue.

#86 donkey on 03.10.22 at 8:12 pm

#55 Sail Away on 03.10.22 at 5:25 pm

Thus bringing your household’s tally of asses to three.

#87 crowdedelevatorfartz on 03.10.22 at 8:13 pm

@#71 Sail Away

After seeing a few “guard donkey” youtube vids…

I’d be puttin my money on a donkey for back woods packers…

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=C8bVBuPIOZI

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3lFG1ps3wak

If you do buy a guard donkey could you name it Ponzie?

#88 Dogman01 on 03.10.22 at 8:15 pm

#73 Michael in-north-york on 03.10.22 at 7:29 pm

Eventually they will build the infrastructure to sell their oil elsewhere, although at a lower price.

————————–

I just bet the Chinese can build a pipeline really really fast.

https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/exclusive-russia-china-agree-30-year-gas-deal-using-new-pipeline-source-2022-02-04/

For them an overland pipeline to Russia gets them away from dependence on Ship\Tankers and the US Navy.

I got a pipeline focus Today: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sw8S_Kv89IU

#89 Tomás de Torquemada on 03.10.22 at 8:16 pm

What good is GDP increase of 7 % if inflation is 15 % and accelerating and we say it is 5 %?

#90 Gary on 03.10.22 at 8:18 pm

I think the problem is not hitting a home run 9% to 10% a year as a yearly return full of fees, risks that most Canadians can’t handle. It is the savings rate, the real normal interest rates that have been manipulated for decades that is pathetic and destroyed by the Liberal, NDP, Green Party, socialists in power and central banks that are not doing their job and actually making most Canadians, governments, corporations, businesses into debt junkies.

I have accepted 5 to 10 year 3% to 4% GIC, bond rates for many years and have beefed up my savings rate from 20% to 45% which includes RRSP tax refunds, maximum RRSP, TFSA annual contributions. Since, 2000, I have seen what they are doing and adjusted my money accumulation strategy to reflect that. This is why with a modest income of on average $58,000 a year over the last 20 years, I have accumulated $385,000 RRSP, $86,000 TFSA, $48,000 reserve, somewhat liquid GIC non-registered accounts, paid off 90% of my $290,000 original mortgage so a modest $32,000 left on my mortgage but have now $580,000 primary residence equity.

Canadians want to make fast, easy money and don’t want to save for it, maintain their money for decades which is what will be their real mistake. People don’t want to plan for anything and want to make 10%, 15%, 20% returns trading or with different portfolios, investing strategies, investment mixes. For most people they will not get even close to 10% annual returns for that long, maybe 6% to 7% a year for decades if they really try to keep on top of things but for me it is just much easier and realistic to save to the max in RRSPs, TFSAs, regular savings, non-registered, reinvest RRSP, TFSA tax savings, compound it for decades at 3% to 4% rates and balance it with getting out of mortgage debt, avoid consumer, credit card debt at all costs.

Look at my uncle, aunt, all they have is this $800,000 house fully paid off and $130,000 in an RRSP, spousal RRSP, some Bell stock but now have to get a reverse mortgage at 6.5%+ rates+ fees to keep the house as all they have is a modest $3,100 a month pensions but are in debt of $190,000 with 2 cars, consumer debt, credit card debt and home renovations from 6 years ago. They both made gross $112,000 their last year before retirement and are in bad financial shape with not that much liquid savings, investments.

#91 Kat on 03.10.22 at 8:37 pm

Wow Doug, what post apocalyptic town do you live in? Most cities and towns I drive to are living life as usual just with masks. Perhaps get out of your bunker, the world did not end, at least not yet.

#92 willworkforpickles on 03.10.22 at 8:49 pm

#78
“My statement was fact. Your statements are opinion. – Garth”
………………………………

Ok , but you missed the point. Sure your statement is fact.
Its official and posted as such…no argument.
…but believing the official moderated numbers when they are just government lies hiding behind the designated term “Official” is my argument as the government goes on leading us down the garden path to economic ruin.
Your statement is correct in terms of the official posted 7% but you are wrong in saying mine is only opinion.
There is more than enough evidence and information available to show and prove the changes being made in the constantly adjusted CPI.
Officialdom, a smokescreen put there to cover Government and Fed corruption far more than for its existence of reporting statistics for the betterment of the economy with their rigged numbers behind it.
Adjusting to what is real and what is really coming is far wiser than adjusting to the illusion the government provides with their skewed official statistics.
And this is the only purpose for my submitting the many comments i have here.

#93 Mary on 03.10.22 at 8:50 pm

5 year GIC at Scotia Bank 3%. It will be 6% by 2025 to 2026. Don’t lock in more than 3 to 4 years.

Inflation is 5%, on its way higher. Why would you do this? – Garth

#94 Ballingsford on 03.10.22 at 8:57 pm

The best thing one can do when it’s raining is to let it rain.
H W Longfellow

#95 Ponzius Pilatus on 03.10.22 at 8:59 pm

Germany tells Zelensky to line up for EU membership like everyone else.

Bundeskanzler Olaf Scholz lehnt einen schnellen EU-Beitritt der Ukraine weiter ab. »Es ist ganz wichtig, dass wir die Dinge, die wir ja auch in der Vergangenheit beschlossen haben, weiter verfolgen«, sagte Scholz am Donnerstag vor einem EU-Gipfel im französischen Versailles. Dabei verwies er auf das Assoziierungsabkommen, das die EU und die Ukraine 2017 geschlossen hatten, und das die politischen und wirtschaftlichen Beziehungen vertiefen soll. »Das ist der Kurs, den wir verfolgen müssen.«

#96 Evel Knievel on 03.10.22 at 9:03 pm

Great F’ing response Mr. Turner!

#97 meslippery on 03.10.22 at 9:04 pm

US gallon= 3.78541 litres. In Morrisonville, NY gas cost $3.67 34 mins ago.
About a buck a litre
https://www.gasbuddy.com/station/126707
We sure pay a lot of tax.

#98 Ponzius Pilatus on 03.10.22 at 9:06 pm

#76 Nunpluss
#65 Warren-the-lagging_indicator on 03.10.22 at 6:32 pm
I can hardly believe I rarely pay for gas because I get free charge-up of my EV at a bank.

***

There is no such thing as a “battery powered car”. Sooner or later higher energy costs will work their way into the cost to charge those things too. If you have a charging station at home, they already are.

And anyway how much time are you spending at the bank? Are the lineups that long?
—————-
Haha,
Good one.
Agree with you.
Life is a zero sum game.
Arbitrage is the name of the game.
The only solution is getting a smaller car (no matter what the power source) or taking the bus.

#99 Ponzius Pilatus on 03.10.22 at 9:11 pm

#84 meslippery on 03.10.22 at 9:04 pm
US gallon= 3.78541 litres. In Morrisonville, NY gas cost $3.67 34 mins ago.
About a buck a litre
https://www.gasbuddy.com/station/126707
We sure pay a lot of tax.
———————-
2.15 in Surrey today.
Where the hell is Morrisonville?

#100 Quintilian on 03.10.22 at 9:18 pm

https://www.hilltimes.com/2022/03/09/anti-corruption-advocates-call-on-feds-to-expedite-registry-tracking-dirty-money-warn-2025-target-too-far-off/349149

“CSG Senator Percy Downe says Canada has developed an ‘unfortunate reputation’ as a place where dirty money can be ‘snow-washed.'”

Of course none of the dirty money makes into the Real Estate market; right Garth?

Proceeds of crime are everywhere, but with 670,000 residential real estate transactions annually in Canada, there is zero discernible impact on overall prices. They are set by routine domestic buyers. Use your head. – Garth

#101 crowdedelevatorfartz on 03.10.22 at 9:19 pm

@#81 Prince Polo

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=kSNo2FPQDQw

That was a brilliant interview.
Well worth the 45 minutes.

#102 Ponzius Pilatus on 03.10.22 at 9:26 pm

Saw a guy in his monster truck circling around the parking lot trying to find a spot for about 5 minutes.
Then left.
Probably cost him 10 bucks.
What did Gump say:
Stupid is as stupid does.

#103 Ponzius Pilatus on 03.10.22 at 9:38 pm

#101 crowdedelevatorfartz on 03.10.22 at 9:19 pm
@#81 Prince Polo

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=kSNo2FPQDQw

That was a brilliant interview.
Well worth the 45 minutes.
——————-
Don’t have 45 minutes to hear from another “Putin expert”.
Give us a synopsis.

#104 crowdedelevatorfartz on 03.10.22 at 9:38 pm

Pumped 70 liters in the work truck tonight.
$2.12.9 = $147.

The summer travel season is gonna bite the wallet.

I can’t wait to hear how many RV’s and Campers are mortgaged or sold at the latest RV show’s with rising interest rates and skyrocketing gas prices…

#105 Michael in-north-york on 03.10.22 at 9:39 pm

#88 Dogman01 on 03.10.22 at 8:15 pm

#73 Michael in-north-york on 03.10.22 at 7:29 pm

Eventually they will build the infrastructure to sell their oil elsewhere, although at a lower price.

————————–

I just bet the Chinese can build a pipeline really really fast.

https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/exclusive-russia-china-agree-30-year-gas-deal-using-new-pipeline-source-2022-02-04/

For them an overland pipeline to Russia gets them away from dependence on Ship\Tankers and the US Navy.
===

Your link says “First flows through the pipeline, which will connect Russia’s Far East region with northeast China, were due to start in two to three years”.

Two years is a lot of time. Furthermore, Far East is not Russia’s main oil and gas producing region.

Most of oil and gas are produced in the north-west of Siberia. A pipeline from there to China would have to stretch for many thousands of kilometres via very inhospitable terrain.

My guess is that they will organize rail shipments of oil to China. Not a trivial operation and will take many months to set up on a large scale, but a lot easier than building the mother of all pipelines.

#106 crowdedelevatorfartz on 03.10.22 at 9:41 pm

@#98 Ponzies Plumbing Problems
“The only solution is getting a smaller car (no matter what the power source) or taking the bus.”

+++

Trades dont take buses if you want your toilet fixed.

#107 meslippery on 03.10.22 at 9:43 pm

#99 Ponzius Pilatus
Try Blaine WA $1.49 CAD Per litre

https://www.gasbuddy.com/station/4019
https://www.mississauga4sale.com/Gasoline-Conversion-Calculator-litres-gallons-us.htm

#108 Sail Away on 03.10.22 at 9:44 pm

Jag, in the book Endurance, about Shackleton’s ill-fated, or if not ill-fated, at least wholly unsuccessful, expedition, I enjoyed their unconventional hunting method of presenting themselves as bait to draw the leopard seals onto the ice to be shot.

#109 Sail Away on 03.10.22 at 10:08 pm

#86 donkey on 03.10.22 at 8:12 pm
#55 Sail Away on 03.10.22 at 5:25 pm

Thus bringing your household’s tally of asses to three.

——–

Ah, ’tis a noble beast!

#110 Baba Novac on 03.10.22 at 10:09 pm

Hey Garth,

The weekly call for March 8 is still not up on the website. How is the steerage section to make do without its fix in the middle of a war, an irrational real estate market etc., without the soothing, rational voices from you, Doug and Ryan? Please help; and thanks for all you do!

#111 Ponzius Pilatus on 03.10.22 at 10:10 pm

#107 meslippery on 03.10.22 at 9:43 pm
#99 Ponzius Pilatus
Try Blaine WA $1.49 CAD Per litre

https://www.gasbuddy.com/station/4019
https://www.mississauga4sale.com/Gasoline-Conversion-Calculator-litres-gallons-us.htm
———————
Can I take the bus there, to fill up my jerry can for the lawn mover?

#112 When Will They Raise Rates? on 03.10.22 at 10:25 pm

I think one of Garth’s sidekicks, could have been Ryan, nailed it a couple of years ago when he posted the chart of the Fed balance sheet vs S&P500… The correlation was undeniable. So there was never a need to panic, the Fed has your back and Garth made the correct call.

Now, about Jean Charest and Patrick Brown entering the race. Ugggh. Not only are they not conservative, they have a deal to not attack each other and they are each the other’s second choice in an apparent bid to keep Trudeau in power…

Look Charest is a decent man. I met him at a campaign event when he was running for PM. My gf at the time was a volunteer for his campaign. BUT, I’m sorry, if Charest wins the leadership, my vote goes to PPC. Same goes for Patrick Brown.

#113 Philco on 03.10.22 at 10:36 pm

104 crowdedelevatorfartz on 03.10.22 at 9:38 pm
Pumped 70 liters in the work truck tonight.
$2.12.9 = $147.

The summer travel season is gonna bite the wallet.

I can’t wait to hear how many RV’s and Campers are mortgaged or sold at the latest RV show’s with rising interest rates and skyrocketing gas prices…
—————–
I was thinking the same. Everyone grabbed a dog and and RV in the covid now their going to be giving them back.
I planned for a blow up planet. Where booking some road trips soon. Nothing moves in a linear fashion.
Black swans can do carnage to peeps retirement plans.

#114 Doug in London on 03.10.22 at 10:50 pm

What was or wasn’t the right thing to do is a matter of opinion. Of the many things I did, one was to go on a blitz of scooping up dirt cheap stocks and equities 2 years ago from now. Oil companies were especially cheap. In order for buy low, sell high to actually work, you have to buy low in the first place. That makes sense, does it not?

#115 Jeff on 03.10.22 at 10:52 pm

True, pandemics never last….but wars where nukes are involved raise the stakes a bit Garth

Old. – Garth

#116 Russ on 03.10.22 at 11:09 pm

Sail Away on 03.10.22 at 5:25 pm

In these troubled times, the Sail Aways are considering adding a donkey or two to the menagerie.

Ms. SA has a bit of a horse addiction and we’ve always had one or two for her and also our daughter, who seems to have inherited the same condition. The last old girl croaked in the fall, so we’re horseless at the moment.

We greatly enjoy remote multi-day to multi-week hikes and hunts in roadless areas. However… backpacking an elk or moose out many miles, along with camp, is a huge amount of work. The dogs carry their own food in saddlebags but we still have to pack the camp and our gear.

Donkeys might work. Full tipi camp in the alpine 10 miles from the nearest road? Pure paradise. And they live 30 years, so we’d all get old together…
Considering…
===============================

Hey S A,

Forget about donkeys, they don’t pack enough.

In the area you like to play camels are were it’s at… or was.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cariboo_camels

Cheers, R

#117 Dr V on 03.10.22 at 11:36 pm

90 GIC-bot Gary

“For most people they will not get even close to 10% annual returns for that long, maybe 6% to 7% a year for decades if they really try to keep on top of things but for me it is just much easier and realistic to save to the max in RRSPs, TFSAs, regular savings, non-registered, reinvest RRSP, TFSA tax savings, compound it for decades at 3% to 4% rates”
———————————-

You do know you can carry those 7% investments in your RRSP and TFSA dont you?

And dont invest at the bank. Invest IN the bank. 8% tax-advantaged dividend yields based on buy in prices of 2 years ago.

#118 the jaguar on 03.10.22 at 11:37 pm

@ Sail Away #108

Love you Sail Away, but if I had to sleep even one night in a tent in the wilderness with you it would be with one eye wide open. Nothwithstanding a personal primal fear of the wild nature environment, I would just be slightly afraid that you might be sizing up my utility as a first course on the menu if things went ‘sideways’.

Sail Away is far too resourceful, lol.

#119 Tom from Mississauga on 03.10.22 at 11:41 pm

On “social cohesion” can you urge sober Boomers to reopen, attend and sponsor someone at their local AA meeting. It’s ugly out here.

#120 baloney Sandwitch on 03.10.22 at 11:50 pm

Good reminder that the most privileged people whine the most. Just hit the mute button. Inflation is a small price to pay to resist Putin. Odds of recession have increased as the price of oil is going to be a huge headwind for the economy. Europe will likely go into a bad recession.

#121 DON on 03.11.22 at 12:02 am

#82 Shawn on 03.10.22 at 8:02 pm
Russian Crude Math

#67 PeterfromCalgary on 03.10.22 at 6:47 pm
The market is adjusting to the high cost of energy resulting from the loss of Russian energy. Stocks are not declining because of the tragic suffering of Ukraine but because of oil and gas prices.

I wonder how long it will take Putin to find a way to sell his oil despite sanctions? I think their are a lot of evil people who would be willing to help him for a profit. The bigger the gap between Ural crude and Brent the more temptation it will be for someone to engage in immoral arbitrage.

**************************
Agreed and if Russia officially sells half as much crude at twice the price they are out exactly no dollars. Sales to China or others still willing to openly buy.

And as for other half. Maybe someone buys it secretly at $50 and sells it at the world price. A lot of temptation there when you talking a lot of barrels times say $50 profit per barrel.

Russia may not be out that much money after all.

*******
Best conversation by far tonight.
I think this is already under way. India will buy the oil, China, Iran, Syria, Venezula etc maybe even some of the good guys after the all mighty dollar.

#122 Aleks on 03.11.22 at 12:15 am

Thank you Garth for summarizing the appropriate response to news headlines so elegantly…

“There is always something to worry about. There always was. It is not the circumstances, but how you deal with them, that truly matters.”

#123 Yukon Elvis on 03.11.22 at 12:17 am

#104 crowdedelevatorfartz on 03.10.22 at 9:38 pm
Pumped 70 liters in the work truck tonight.
$2.12.9 = $147.
++++++++++++++++
I got gas today at Taco Bell for $1.39

#124 willinsc on 03.11.22 at 12:29 am

Lets send Putin some sunflower seeds for his pockets.
This stuff will pass and those seeds may one day sprout.

#125 DON on 03.11.22 at 12:46 am

#105 Michael in-north-york on 03.10.22 at 9:39 pm
#88 Dogman01 on 03.10.22 at 8:15 pm

#73 Michael in-north-york on 03.10.22 at 7:29 pm

Eventually they will build the infrastructure to sell their oil elsewhere, although at a lower price.

————————–

I just bet the Chinese can build a pipeline really really fast.

https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/exclusive-russia-china-agree-30-year-gas-deal-using-new-pipeline-source-2022-02-04/

For them an overland pipeline to Russia gets them away from dependence on Ship\Tankers and the US Navy.
===

Your link says “First flows through the pipeline, which will connect Russia’s Far East region with northeast China, were due to start in two to three years”.

Two years is a lot of time. Furthermore, Far East is not Russia’s main oil and gas producing region.

Most of oil and gas are produced in the north-west of Siberia. A pipeline from there to China would have to stretch for many thousands of kilometres via very inhospitable terrain.

My guess is that they will organize rail shipments of oil to China. Not a trivial operation and will take many months to set up on a large scale, but a lot easier than building the mother of all pipelines.

**********
And the other oil pipeline mentioned that is already pumping is not yet at full capacity and they were slowly upping the volume prior to the Ukraine War. I wonder if that will be increased right away to full capacity.

#126 Dr V on 03.11.22 at 1:11 am

Good fifth estate episode tonight on affordable rental housing.

#127 willworkforpickles on 03.11.22 at 1:33 am

With the official numbers and percentages the government and Fed create, numbers manipulated to appear as something they’re not in real terms such as with the GDP and CPI…doctored numbers they use in order to hide the mess they’re responsible for from plain view , the markets obliviously keep rolling on the tampered with official figures endorsed by them and will for a time yet.

Meanwhile, there’s a cost being paid for epic obscuring of Government/Fed transparency purposely to hide the mis-handling of the economy. And that toll has now become an expanding stealth tax of rising inflation. And of it, prices gouging consumers and small business.

All by the government knowing and acting on what’s best for us is what they want us to think. Just as long as we don’t think, they hope, collectively speaking, they’ve totally screwed us when they have… because they have so much more of the same to come because its all they’ve got.

#128 IHCTD9 on 03.11.22 at 8:00 am

#123 Yukon Elvis on 03.11.22 at 12:17 am
#104 crowdedelevatorfartz on 03.10.22 at 9:38 pm
Pumped 70 liters in the work truck tonight.
$2.12.9 = $147.
++++++++++++++++

I got gas today at Taco Bell for $1.39
____

I’ve been running my truck on bean burritos for a week. Big savings, albeit a bit uncomfortable.

#129 crowdedelevatorfartz on 03.11.22 at 8:02 am

@#98 Ponzies Playtime preempted

“Don’t have 45 minutes to hear from another “Putin expert”.

+++

Sorry Ponzie but this time you’ll have to put down the crayons, sit still and pay attention.
Maybe go pottie first.
Apparently 45 minutes is a long time for you.

#130 crowdedelevatorfartz on 03.11.22 at 8:03 am

@#139 Yukon Elvis
“I got gas today at Taco Bell for $1.39”

+++

Whitehorse has a Taco Bell?

#131 IHCTD9 on 03.11.22 at 8:23 am

#104 crowdedelevatorfartz on 03.10.22 at 9:38 pm
Pumped 70 liters in the work truck tonight.
$2.12.9 = $147.

The summer travel season is gonna bite the wallet.

I can’t wait to hear how many RV’s and Campers are mortgaged or sold at the latest RV show’s with rising interest rates and skyrocketing gas prices…
____

Looks like the prices are turning around already. Gas is down about .10 locally over the last couple days.

#132 Justin S on 03.11.22 at 8:25 am

Great post today Garth. I try and read the blog as often as possible, but I ALWAYS make a point of reading it when sh!t is hitting the fan around the world. I appreciate your long-term outlook and perspective you bring to situations – both from a financial perspective and human level.

I’ve learned a lot from your blog – thank you!

#133 JimmyB on 03.11.22 at 8:44 am

Everyone is thinking that the war will soon be over, and that everything will return to normal.

What if their hope or fear of facing the truth is misplaced from reality?

#134 NoName on 03.11.22 at 8:52 am

#121 DON on 03.11.22 at 12:02 am
#82 Shawn on 03.10.22 at 8:02 pm
Russian Crude Math

#67 PeterfromCalgary on 03.10.22 at 6:47 pm
The market is adjusting to the high cost of energy resulting from the loss of Russian energy. Stocks are not declining because of the tragic suffering of Ukraine but because of oil and gas prices.

I wonder how long it will take Putin to find a way to sell his oil despite sanctions? I think their are a lot of evil people who would be willing to help him for a profit. The bigger the gap between Ural crude and Brent the more temptation it will be for someone to engage in immoral arbitrage.

**************************
Agreed and if Russia officially sells half as much crude at twice the price they are out exactly no dollars. Sales to China or others still willing to openly buy.

And as for other half. Maybe someone buys it secretly at $50 and sells it at the world price. A lot of temptation there when you talking a lot of barrels times say $50 profit per barrel.

Russia may not be out that much money after all.

*******
Best conversation by far tonight.
I think this is already under way. India will buy the oil, China, Iran, Syria, Venezula etc maybe even some of the good guys after the all mighty dollar.

i am no oil expert but i came across this
https://theodora.com/pipelines/russia_former_soviet_union_pipelines.html

if you see how oil and gas pipelines are layed out in russ ia there si no enough capacity to send lots of oil east, so they have to go on ships and with ships more or less you know who is where, unles theyll do ship to ship transfer. If they go tat route thall help but it wont be any major volume.

Iam sure maybe they can come up with something in a jiffy but for that will take some time, now add dock workers refusing to unload, capetans are refusing cargo and insurance refusing to insure.

interesting times, for sure

#135 canuck on 03.11.22 at 8:58 am

#104 crowdedelevatorfartz on 03.10.22 at 9:38 pm

Pumped 70 liters in the work truck tonight.
$2.12.9 = $147.

The summer travel season is gonna bite the wallet.

I can’t wait to hear how many RV’s and Campers are mortgaged or sold at the latest RV show’s with rising interest rates and skyrocketing gas prices…
____________________________________________

Were you wringing your hands in anticipation of hearing how many RV’s are sold at the latest RV show?

I’m in the industry and can tell you that if you live on the left coast, the biggest show in the lower mainland was considered successful. Here in good old Alberta where gas is .50 cheaper than what you’re paying, we are having a great start to the new year. We had a solid show in February and while March is usually a dead month in the industry, it hasn’t let up for us so far.

Rates haven’t been increased by the lenders who finance RV’s and boats. April will likely be different but for now, you can still get 7 year terms on a 20 year Amortization at very good rates. What do you think a quarter point will do to a payment with those terms?

Hope that doesn’t disappoint you. Some people live and enjoy their lives with their family…now.

#136 VladTor on 03.11.22 at 9:20 am

to #16 Dr V on 03.10.22 at 2:46 pm
3 Dave

Looks like Canada has twice as much oil as Russia.

***********

True!
But can I ask you – Why in that case gasoline price in Russia go down compare with Canada where price go UPUPUP?

#137 VladTor on 03.11.22 at 9:30 am

to #75 Michael in-north-york on 03.10.22 at 7:29 pm

***********

My friend, you don’t understand what does it mean modern economy in globalization and how deep is globalization now. Oil is not everything for economy.

Here is the data for you and others (who don’t understand too) about how Russian economy involved in global economy:

1. According to the latest detailed data for 2019 (now even bigger numbers!), Russia accounted for 16.8% of the global oil and gas trade, only 1.2% in metal ores and raw materials, 13.7% in iron, steel and rolled products, 17.2% in coal, 9.2% in cereals and agricultural crops, 7.1% in copper and products, 17.9% in wheat (included in the cereals category), 17.3% in raw aluminum, 32% in nickel, and 19.2% in exotic metals. The latter includes: tungsten, molybdenum, tantalum, magnesium, cobalt, bismuth, cadmium, titanium, zirconium, antimony, and manganese.

2. You don’t understand how capitalism working. Russia will sell oil under any sanctions (like Iran for instance). Money my friend, only money. This is just business – nothing personal!

#138 Shawn on 03.11.22 at 10:19 am

Stupid is as Stupid does

Gary at 90 said:

Look at my uncle, aunt, all they have is this $800,000 house fully paid off and $130,000 in an RRSP, spousal RRSP, some Bell stock but now have to get a reverse mortgage at 6.5%+ rates+ fees to keep the house as all they have is a modest $3,100 a month pensions but are in debt of $190,000 with 2 cars, consumer debt, credit card debt and home renovations from 6 years ago. They both made gross $112,000 their last year before retirement and are in bad financial shape with not that much liquid savings, investments.

**************************************
These couple apparently had good incomes and lived in the same economy where many of their peers managed to sail comfortably into retirement.

They did not bother much with RRSPs it appears and did not invest what they put in properly. They did a renovation six years ago as they faced retirement and there is no mention of the TFSA.

Great illustration of Garth’s observations that:

“It is not the circumstances, but how you deal with them, that truly matters.”

In similar circumstances the outcomes over 40 years will show a wide dispersion from net debt to big wealth.

Oh well, they can always blame the bank and Trudeau.

#139 Quintilian on 03.11.22 at 10:27 am

“Proceeds of crime are everywhere, but with 670,000 residential real estate transactions annually in Canada, there is zero discernible impact on overall prices. They are set by routine domestic buyers. Use your head. – Garth”

When a property sells for several hundred thousand dollars over asking, every property in the neighbourhood goes up in prices.

Give it up. There is zero evidence to support this straw man theory. Canadians just don’t like looking in the mirror and asking why they pay 40% more than Americans for a home (and the US attracts a lot more illegal bucks than we do). – Garth

#140 Michael in-north-york on 03.11.22 at 10:27 am

#137 VladTor on 03.11.22 at 9:30 am
===

You have no idea how the supply routes work. If the existing routes get smashed by embargoes, you won’t create new routes in 3 days, nor in 3 weeks.

Sure, if the embargoes remain in place for several months or a few years, they will find a way to sell their stuff to other markets. Doesn’t matter, we need to hit Russia and help Ukraine right now. Will worry about the future problems as they arrive.

#141 Flop… on 03.11.22 at 10:28 am

Mask mandates being lifted in B.C

Still have to wear one in B.C Courts.

Please let me take my mask off, so I can have my best face shot taken by the media for doing something possibly criminal, said no one…

M47BC

#142 the Jaguar on 03.11.22 at 10:28 am

Excerpt interview with Jason Kenney. Greta who?

“Q: If we take a step back, how monumental is what we’ve seen in the past week or two for oil and gas markets?

A: I think it’s an earthquake … It is, I think, the beginning of a potential global realignment in how we supply energy. It has turned the whole concept of ESG (environmental, social and governance considerations) on its head.

And I think maybe governments and investors around the world realize they’ve been missing the boat by turning a blind eye to the nature of the regimes that produce most energy in the world.

So I think this is a paradigm shift … I was meeting with folks from a couple of oilsands companies who said that all of a sudden, they’re almost overnight getting a dramatically more constructive tone from European financial institutions.”

#143 Shawn Allen on 03.11.22 at 10:30 am

Jobs Report – The Economy is on Fire!

Unemployment rate for Canada at 5.5% is a tick above the record low of 5.4%.

Under paid? Ask for a raise. Today.

https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/daily-quotidien/220311/dq220311a-eng.htm?CMP=mstatcan

#144 Ponzius Pilatus on 03.11.22 at 11:00 am

40 Michael in-north-york on 03.11.22 at 10:27 am
#137 VladTor on 03.11.22 at 9:30 am
===

You have no idea how the supply routes work. If the existing routes get smashed by embargoes, you won’t create new routes in 3 days, nor in 3 weeks.

Sure, if the embargoes remain in place for several months or a few years, they will find a way to sell their stuff to other markets. Doesn’t matter, we need to hit Russia and help Ukraine right now. Will worry about the future problems as they arrive.
—————————
The problem with all embargoes and sanctions is, that the other side will do the same.
Russia has a lot of stuff that the West needs.
Particularly now, as they have already occupied some strategic parts of the Ukraine.
The modern world runs on free trade.
Well, at least it did, until Trump and his MAGA came along.
No man is an island.

#145 Ponzius Pilatus on 03.11.22 at 11:07 am

#143 Shawn Allen on 03.11.22 at 10:30 am
Jobs Report – The Economy is on Fire!

Unemployment rate for Canada at 5.5% is a tick above the record low of 5.4%.

Under paid? Ask for a raise. Today.

https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/daily-quotidien/220311/dq220311a-eng.htm?CMP=mstatcan
————————-
Yep.
“Help needed” signs everywhere.
Even I might be tempted to go back.
Dispensing cheap “gas” at the local Taco Bell.
Sounds like fun.

#146 VladTor on 03.11.22 at 11:10 am

to #140 Michael in-north-york on 03.11.22 at 10:27 am
#137 VladTor on 03.11.22 at 9:30 am
===

You have no idea how the supply routes work. If the existing routes get smashed by embargoes, you won’t create new routes in 3 days, nor in 3 weeks.

***********
I just have a little.

Your reasoning is theoretical. It is you who do not understand how business works and that the business created over the decades and in which a lot of money is invested will never be destroyed.

Here’s an just one todays example for you . Yesterday, there were shouts every street corner that Shell was leaving Russia. He leaves … don’t make me laugh. Today, those who live in Russia write about their “departure” from Russia. All the signs at Shell gas stations are covered with cloth and a new name is already being installed in their place -“Rakushka”. This is the Russian equivalent of the Shell logo.

Beautiful leaving out!

You really think that companies will give up everything and leave the world’s sixth-largest purchasing power parity market.

Second, many people simply write with delight that the United States has abandoned Russian oil. Well, well. Did you know that Shell received oil from the Sakhalin field, but NEVER imported it into the United States – it did not cross the US border. Oil went straight to Asia.

And what the United States received from Russia, Fuel oil – and after the embargo Venezuela – greatly increased exports of Russian fuel oil. Moreover, the ban on the supply of non-existent oil from Russia did not affect fuel oil. Fuel oil is in the list of exceptions, and without fuel oil, there will be no gasoline.

And finally the cherry on the cake!
Canada has offered to increase oil exports to the United States after Russian ban in exchange for a Keystone permit. The US government refused, as far as I know.

#147 Ponzius Pilatus on 03.11.22 at 11:18 am

42 the Jaguar on 03.11.22 at 10:28 am
Excerpt interview with Jason Kenney. Greta who?

“Q: If we take a step back, how monumental is what we’ve seen in the past week or two for oil and gas markets?

A: I think it’s an earthquake … It is, I think, the beginning of a potential global realignment in how we supply energy. It has turned the whole concept of ESG (environmental, social and governance considerations) on its head.

And I think maybe governments and investors around the world realize they’ve been missing the boat by turning a blind eye to the nature of the regimes that produce most energy in the world.

So I think this is a paradigm shift … I was meeting with folks from a couple of oilsands companies who said that all of a sudden, they’re almost overnight getting a dramatically more constructive tone from European financial institutions.”
———————-
“Paradigm shift”
Most overused words used by people who want to sound like they know what they are talking about.
It’s typical for people who lack a long range vision to hit the panic button when things turn sideways for a while.

#148 Philco on 03.11.22 at 11:27 am

#143 Shawn Allen on 03.11.22 at 10:30 am
Jobs Report – The Economy is on Fire!

Unemployment rate for Canada at 5.5% is a tick above the record low of 5.4%.
====================
We are fortunate as hell in Kanada.
Forget the Recession and housing crash. People talking hyperinflation are talking smack.
High inflation for now is ok. People learn to adjust and live with it. 5% inflation is crap though probably hit 15% in real terms.
Go build a building, buy a car or groceries. All way past 15points.
Just waiting on my steel building quotes. Rep said the heavy steel is up 100% in one year. Fingers crossed he’s out to lunch.

#149 Ponzius Pilatus on 03.11.22 at 11:31 am

Paul Krugman advises the WH to increase the sanctions on Russia.
Says the USA will come out of this crises better than the EU.
What a genius!
Of course, Europe will be worse off.
They are in the thick of things, with millions of refugees coming over the border.
He should return his Nobel Prize.

#150 Satori on 03.11.22 at 11:36 am

#90 Gary on 03.10.22 at 8:18 pm
I think the problem is not hitting a home run 9% to 10% a year as a yearly return full of fees, risks that most Canadians can’t handle. It is the savings rate, the real normal interest rates that have been manipulated for decades that is pathetic and destroyed by the Liberal, NDP, Green Party, socialists in power and central banks that are not doing their job and actually making most Canadians, governments, corporations, businesses into debt junkies.

I have accepted 5 to 10 year 3% to 4% GIC, bond rates for many years and have beefed up my savings rate from 20% to 45% which includes RRSP tax refunds, maximum RRSP, TFSA annual contributions. Since, 2000, I have seen what they are doing and adjusted my money accumulation strategy to reflect that. This is why with a modest income of on average $58,000 a year over the last 20 years, I have accumulated $385,000 RRSP, $86,000 TFSA, $48,000 reserve, somewhat liquid GIC non-registered accounts, paid off 90% of my $290,000 original mortgage so a modest $32,000 left on my mortgage but have now $580,000 primary residence equity.
————————————-
Modest income of 58,000? Gary, fortunately I am happy I am not you. If you think that is modest… please. You already got the ‘poor me’ attitude of ‘I had nothing and look what I did’. You still have nuthin.

As for your ‘sadly judged’ Aunt and Uncle, they are gonna die Broke, sounds like they lived life, enjoyed the perks and had fun…. but you? Well, keep investing in those GICs. At very least, the banks love you.

I think your Aunt and Uncle were likely kind and giving people, they took risks, and just an FYI… just because you think people are broke, doesn’t mean they are. If you were my kin, I’d tell ya a big sob story too. Elitism, we can all feel it a mile away…

#151 I don't know on 03.11.22 at 11:58 am

Insightful post.

Will people listen? Probably not. Not as headline catching as Grantham’s new prediction, nor as fear generating as discussion about the US/West losing power (actually the opposite is happening in that regard).

Inflation increasing month/month is proof positive that one should have been acquiring assets over the past 2 decades (both financial and real estate). Going to cash was and will continue to be a bad move.

#125 DON on 03.11.22 at 12:46 am

There is no way Russia gets out of this in better shape. They can’t stay in as an occupying force, for Ukraine is too large, and it will be too costly in terms of manpower and resources. Every day Russia maintains a military presence in Ukraine is incredibly expensive, selling more oil to China won’t compensate anywhere near enough for the loss of economic activity the sanctions are inflicting. The conversation, while interesting, is moot.

IDK

#152 Michael in-north-york on 03.11.22 at 12:24 pm

#142 the Jaguar on 03.11.22 at 10:28 am

Excerpt interview with Jason Kenney. Greta who?

“Q: If we take a step back, how monumental is what we’ve seen in the past week or two for oil and gas markets?

A: I think it’s an earthquake … It is, I think, the beginning of a potential global realignment in how we supply energy. It has turned the whole concept of ESG (environmental, social and governance considerations) on its head.

And I think maybe governments and investors around the world realize they’ve been missing the boat by turning a blind eye to the nature of the regimes that produce most energy in the world.

So I think this is a paradigm shift … I was meeting with folks from a couple of oilsands companies who said that all of a sudden, they’re almost overnight getting a dramatically more constructive tone from European financial institutions.”
===

100% agreed. Blocking the oil / gas supplies for the sake of green credentials is stupid and irresponsible. We are not reducing the emission that way. We are outsourcing the emission, and empowering a bunch of petro dictators in the process.

If we are serious about cutting the emission, we need to cut / discourage the energy consumption, as well as boost the nuclear generation.

Yes to carbon taxes, no to pipeline blockades.

#153 Michael in-north-york on 03.11.22 at 12:36 pm

#146 VladTor on 03.11.22 at 11:10 am
I just have a little.

Your reasoning is theoretical. It is you who do not understand how business works and that the business created over the decades and in which a lot of money is invested will never be destroyed.

Here’s an just one todays example for you . Yesterday, there were shouts every street corner that Shell was leaving Russia. He leaves … don’t make me laugh. Today, those who live in Russia write about their “departure” from Russia. All the signs at Shell gas stations are covered with cloth and a new name is already being installed in their place -“Rakushka”. This is the Russian equivalent of the Shell logo.

Beautiful leaving out!
===

Your example is irrelevant, which further proves you don’t know what you are talking about.

Shell gas stations physically located in Russia, can be easily seized by the local authorities and handed over to a local company. That’s kind of obvious. Shell / Macdonalds / Coca Cola departures are just symbolic gestures, they do not affect the supply of foreign currency for Putin, and do not have much impact on the local economy either.

Oil embargo is another matter, it will block the flow of foreign funds to Russia. And reduce their ability to fund the continued aggression.

#154 Michael in-north-york on 03.11.22 at 12:41 pm

#149 Ponzius Pilatus on 03.11.22 at 11:31 am

Paul Krugman advises the WH to increase the sanctions on Russia.
Says the USA will come out of this crises better than the EU.
What a genius!
Of course, Europe will be worse off.
They are in the thick of things, with millions of refugees coming over the border.
===

Of course, Europe will be worse off than North America. They import nearly all raw materials, while we produce quite a few of them.

Europe also has more at stake. The aggressive fascist power is located next door to them, and will threaten them before it threatens us.

This is not what Europe or us chose; this is what we just have to deal with.

#155 Reasons on 03.11.22 at 12:45 pm

“Canadians just don’t like looking in the mirror and asking why they pay 40% more than Americans for a home (and the US attracts a lot more illegal bucks than we do).” – Garth
———————————————-

One of the reasons is that Canadian immigrants are highly skilled on average vs America immigrants. A higher percentage of people with higher than average incomes creates more competition.

Link? – Garth

#156 Brian on 03.11.22 at 12:51 pm

#153 Michael in-north-york
Oil embargo is another matter, it will block the flow of foreign funds to Russia. And reduce their ability to fund the continued aggression.

And where would the west get it’s oil from Mike?

All bets are off if Putin slashes the West’s oil supplies
https://edition.cnn.com/2022/03/01/business/oil-ukraine-russia-putin/index.html

#157 Quintilian on 03.11.22 at 1:01 pm

#143 Shawn Allen on 03.11.22 at 10:30 am
“Jobs Report – The Economy is on Fire!

Unemployment rate for Canada at 5.5% is a tick above the record low of 5.4%.

Under paid? Ask for a raise. Today.”

You have no idea of what it takes to keep a small business solvent under the current conditions.

Unless you have pricing power ie. in a monopoly, oligopoly, or in a highly concentrated industry with high barriers to entry, your costs are going through the roof, and the competition prevents you from raising your prices.

Many small businesses will be squeezed out, higher wage demands is just one of the daggers.

#158 the Jaguar on 03.11.22 at 1:15 pm

What on earth is Jean Charest thinking? His little elfen self was in my city yesterday, pushed back into the political limelight by some folks who think he can save the Conservative Party. Talk about lazy thinking. A complete rinse and repeat scenario. So far the candidates for leadership are about as exciting as a drive through Esterhazy Saskatchewan.

Listen up party peeps. Poilievre is probably the front runner, but he’s too abrasive. A man of criticisms, but not solutions. You need a guy who walks into the room and gets instant respect. His heart has to be in it. ( that’s why MacKay won’t cut it ).

Sorry, but it can’t be a woman. Not this time. Too much riding on the outcome to risk experimenting with that, and there isn’t any female around with enough swagger. ( well, maybe the Jaguar, lol ).

So who is it, you might ask? John Baird. 52 years old, served in several cabinet position. He’s smart, has presence, and the looks that appeal to voters. Oh yes, I know that shouldn’t matter, but it does. The guy with hair like a poodle doesn’t stand a chance. ( Charest). Enough said.

#159 Shawn on 03.11.22 at 1:19 pm

Yes to Carbon Tax? Yes

Michael in North York at 152 said:

Yes to carbon taxes, no to pipeline blockades.

***********************************
That’s a credible position. Being hell-bent against a carbon tax where 90% gets remitted back to the population is not credible.

The world has decided that spewing carbon has a cost and has moved on. If my spewing causes harm why should I not pay to compensate the world.

A credible oil producing region cannot be against the carbon tax in 2022. In fact the Alberta oil industry is not against it has moved on.

A federal Conservative leader who will repeal the carbon tax is out of touch and unelectable.

#160 Moh on 03.11.22 at 1:38 pm

Even with all going on in the world for some reason I find myself happy to be alive and enjoying my life.

#161 NoName on 03.11.22 at 1:48 pm

#147 Ponzius Pilatus on 03.11.22 at 11:18 am

pardeegram shift… Wery first time i came across pardeegram shift in that book about seven people efectivneses, finished all book and didnt even have slightest clue what is par dee gram means (yes that is how i red and pronunce it).

https://twitter.com/PrefShares/status/1501441446947082243

#162 Shawn on 03.11.22 at 1:57 pm

Small Business Can’t Pay Higher wages?

#157 Quintilian on 03.11.22 at 1:01 pm
#143 Shawn Allen on 03.11.22 at 10:30 am
“Jobs Report – The Economy is on Fire!

Unemployment rate for Canada at 5.5% is a tick above the record low of 5.4%.

Under paid? Ask for a raise. Today.”

You have no idea of what it takes to keep a small business solvent under the current conditions.

Unless you have pricing power ie. in a monopoly, oligopoly, or in a highly concentrated industry with high barriers to entry, your costs are going through the roof, and the competition prevents you from raising your prices.

Many small businesses will be squeezed out, higher wage demands is just one of the daggers.

********************************
There’s some truth to what you say. As for me, I have been intimately involved all my life in a small business in a hard pressed area of this country. A competitive low wage business. I do know a bit about it.

But the reality is that wage earners have unusual leverage at this moment. I said if people are under-paid ask for a raise. Nothing that you said changes that. Some employers will agree. Some won’t. Some employees will leave for higher pay elsewhere. Some businesses will fail. It has ever been the case.

#163 VladTor on 03.11.22 at 2:18 pm

#153 Michael in-north-york on 03.11.22 at 12:36 pm

….Shell gas stations physically located in Russia, can be easily seized by the local authorities and handed over to a local company.

***********

Conspiracy theories ???? You like it?

Those companies still pay salary to employee. You should distinguishes – media info and real life. If they leave Russia – they will never return. Russia will not allow them to return. If you was in board of directors one of those companies, what you would prefer – listening USA State department or care about yours business and find way to stay? A?

#164 Michael in-north-york on 03.11.22 at 2:40 pm

#156 Brian on 03.11.22 at 12:51 pm

#153 Michael in-north-york
Oil embargo is another matter, it will block the flow of foreign funds to Russia. And reduce their ability to fund the continued aggression.

And where would the west get it’s oil from Mike?

All bets are off if Putin slashes the West’s oil supplies
https://edition.cnn.com/2022/03/01/business/oil-ukraine-russia-putin/index.html
===

Short-term, will have to cut consumption and close some non-essential factories.

Long-term, get more oil pumped elsewhere, and accelerate the “green shift”. Of course, will have to treat nuclear energy as green.

Anyway, if Putin blocks the pipelines from his side, the European leaders will be secretly happy. Then they can blame the adversary for the fallout, instead of imposing the embargo themselves and taking the blame.

#165 Doug in London on 03.11.22 at 2:42 pm

@When Will They Raise Rates?, post #112:
If the Conservatives pick Jean Charest or Patrick Brown they’ll have an even chance of winning the next election. Otherwise, forget it, no point on even having an election. The result will be the same as the last. As Mr. Einstein said: Insanity is defined as doing the same thing, making the same mistakes, and expecting a different outcome.

#166 Michael in-north-york on 03.11.22 at 2:44 pm

#159 Shawn on 03.11.22 at 1:19 pm

That’s a credible position. Being hell-bent against a carbon tax where 90% gets remitted back to the population is not credible.

The world has decided that spewing carbon has a cost and has moved on. If my spewing causes harm why should I not pay to compensate the world.

A credible oil producing region cannot be against the carbon tax in 2022. In fact the Alberta oil industry is not against it has moved on.

A federal Conservative leader who will repeal the carbon tax is out of touch and unelectable.
===

Your words are the voice of reason. Let’s hope that the politicians who need to get elected, see it the same way and support what’s right rather than what sells better.

#167 DON on 03.11.22 at 3:00 pm

#151 I don’t know on 03.11.22 at 11:58 am
Insightful post.

Will people listen? Probably not. Not as headline catching as Grantham’s new prediction, nor as fear generating as discussion about the US/West losing power (actually the opposite is happening in that regard).

Inflation increasing month/month is proof positive that one should have been acquiring assets over the past 2 decades (both financial and real estate). Going to cash was and will continue to be a bad move.

#125 DON on 03.11.22 at 12:46 am

There is no way Russia gets out of this in better shape. They can’t stay in as an occupying force, for Ukraine is too large, and it will be too costly in terms of manpower and resources. Every day Russia maintains a military presence in Ukraine is incredibly expensive, selling more oil to China won’t compensate anywhere near enough for the loss of economic activity the sanctions are inflicting. The conversation, while interesting, is moot.

IDK

***********

Thank you for stating the obvious…the point is not every country is walking away from Russia. China and India combined account for a pretty big percentage of the World population.

#168 I don’t know on 03.11.22 at 3:11 pm

167 DON on 03.11.22 at 3:00 pm

You are welcome. With so much misinformation floating around, the obvious is something that needs to be repeated.

IDK

#169 Barb on 03.11.22 at 3:39 pm

Any guesses as to who might be a candidate for the Nobel Peace Prize “after” this mess (presuming it’ll end this year)?

#170 Jake on 03.11.22 at 3:49 pm

Satori, it sounds like you have sour grapes as Gary has over $1 million dollars in wealth and a fully paid house worth over $600,000 by his numbers, comments only with $32,000 left on his mortgage and no consumer, credit card debt plus he only makes $58,000 on average a year over 20 years. Yes, $58,000 a year is a modest income as taxes in Canada and the cost of living are much higher in Canada.

I think he has the right idea of increasing his savings rate and putting it at least in 5+ year GICs at 3% to 4% and using the full RRSP, TFSA tax savings for reinvestment and if he is in his 40’s over 50’s he is way ahead most Canadians. He kept it simple, stuck with it with enough discipline and it just seems to me you are jealous Satori he was able to do this on his own.

#171 Nadia on 03.11.22 at 4:10 pm

I don’t know why Gary did not buy at least 50% of his investments in equity related type with ETF’s and shares of companies. I guess he does what he is comfortable with and is easy for him to implement, maintain. He is content with 3% to 4% GIC, bond rates and seems to me does not know or have had a good enough investment advisor to help him construct a decent portfolio. You have to give him kudos that he is maxing out his RRSP, TFSA and using the tax savings to reinvest regularly instead of blowing the money.

#172 Flop… on 03.11.22 at 4:31 pm

#169 Barb on 03.11.22 at 3:39 pm

Any guesses as to who might be a candidate for the Nobel Peace Prize “after” this mess (presuming it’ll end this year)?

///////////////////////

Xi Jinping from China is my bet.

Right after he announces that anyone displaced by war or famine is more than welcome to take up residence in one of China’s Ghost Cities.

They have excess shelter with ready-built infrastructure, millions of others need a roof over their heads.

We suck at problem solving.

Mankind makes things way more complicated than they need to be…

M47BC

#173 Satori on 03.11.22 at 7:21 pm

#170 Jake on 03.11.22 at 3:49 pm

Jake,

Pointing out to him that “Life is not a resume of financial achievements”. If it were, I’d trump poor old Gary, but I don’t tell everyone I know about it, nor do I go around dissing my family if they haven’t achieved what I achieved financially.

Obviously you relate well to Gary. It is very telling of character when you put down people, especially your own family.

#174 Philco on 03.12.22 at 11:17 am

#159 Shawn on 03.11.22 at 1:19 pm
#166 Michael in-north-york on 03.11.22 at 2:44 pm
———————————–
Have you been to the Philippines?
1 tricycle produduces more polution and carbon than any modern ice engine in NA. These people cant afford to pay those taxes. (My familiy over there)
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Motorized_tricycle_(Philippines)
So why should we pay carbon tax while 4+ billion people on the other side of the planet pay nothing?
Carbon tax is a joke. High fuel costs already provide huge taxes.
If it was fair you should be providing me with a huge cheque for carbon credits as i own a large chunk of forest BC coast.
Mr New york you talk way to much.

#175 Philco on 03.12.22 at 11:24 am

Michael in-north-york
If we carbon tax your mouth the deficit would disapear. The last thing people need these days is more tax bullshit. Their trying to feed their families and get to work.

#176 Philco on 03.12.22 at 11:40 am

Our currency purchase power is collapsing thats the equivalent of a huge tax people.
I get raw materials cost updates every quarter. I just got another. Drywall, insulation and otherer up 10% AGAIN!!!!
My quote came in for my steel storage buildings. Their actually descent. Their up only 25% so im buying 2 or 3 as im better sitting on product rather than cash.
Told from the rep. that more increases are coming.
Governments are making it way worse with their stupid green adjenda and carbon taxes..amoung others.