The drama

So much of it lately.

If you’re a refugee on a bus fleeing furtively across the border with Poland, your husband-warrior and smashed house in the dust behind then, yes, there’s drama and sorrow.

But if you’re an investor in Squamish vexing over ‘losses’ in your RRSP during 2022, get a grip. Ditto for the sods in the comments section who’ve lost all perspective on the paradise we inhabit in Canada, and the stability of our financial markets.

Let’s review a few things.

Like the economy. It grew at almost 7% annualized in the final, Omicron-addled quarter of 2021. That’s outstanding, especially when you recall we were in negative numbers two years ago. Same with jobs. There was 14% unemployment two years ago, now more than halved. Small businesses say their greatest challenge is finding workers, not customers.

Banks are making heaps of profits. Roiling commodity values have bolstered Canadian asset values. Consumer spending is robust. The pandemic is fading fast and even mask mandates ending. Amid all of this a balanced and diversified portfolio is down about 5.5% in the midst of the European war and global sanctions – half the decline of major US equity markets. As designed.

More importantly, investors need to remember a B&D account gained more than 35% over the last three years, so a single-digit decline is hardly worth noting, let alone moaning over. And, no, the world is not ending.

People here allege we have runaway price increases for everything, when the official number is 5.1% and the actual, on-the-street hike is a few points higher. It’s worth remembering inflation was 12.5% in 1981, when the Bank of Canada rate was 17.9% (today it’s 0.5%) and mortgages cost 21% (now 3%). We survived. Maybe because there were no blogs letting people emote all over each other.

It’s worth noting an entire generation of house-buyers, for example, have morphed into adults during a period of negative interest rates (below inflation), home loans costing as little as 1%, price stability and relative calm. Poor Millennials. They’re encountering reality. Not coping well. Modest inflation becomes ‘hyperinflation’. Nobody believes the cost of money can rise even by 1%. A market pullback of 10% means stocks are ‘crashing,’ going to zero. Ukraine equals WW3. We’re all doomed.

But hardly.

Yup, the Russian war, sanctions, $100+ oil and more inflation probably mean a slowdown in global growth – which is why equity markets have moved off the highs hit two months ago. Yes, interest rates will keep moving up as US headline CPI hits 8% and our CB moves with the Fed. In time, the fighting will be over but the effects will linger. As detailed here over the last week, those most at risk are the kids who misread the economic signals, think financial assets are scary and barrel ahead with a real estate purchase.

Already there are signals of a shift.

Realtors (the perceptive, analytical ones) report fewer showings, fewer players on offering night, more price adjustments, a drop in the number of bully bids, more homes failing to sell in a blind auction and a total shock to people who bought a home first, then listed their existing place in order to finance the deal.

Says Toronto broker John Pasalis (who hates me) in one of his hourly Tweets: “I do think that this gradual slowdown will continue, partly driven by buyer fatigue, high prices, higher rates but also the global macro economic risks ahead. They could find themselves buying in an insanely hot market but selling in a much cooler market.”

Hmm. And where have you been reading about that?

Meanwhile here is a very scary chart, which plots human emotions and the FOMO gripping an entire generation of current buyers of Toronto condos (overwhelmingly first-time purchasers or mon-&-pop investors):

Source: Scott Ingram, TRREB, MLS

Yes, that means almost 80% of deals are now above the vendor’s asking price – exceeding the rate in 2017 when everyone went nuts, government brought in panic legislation, and prices were 50% lower. The conclusion is inescapable, and was outlined here yesterday. Sellers are the only ones reaping profits while buyers of inflated assets in a slowing market take 100% of the risk. If they use leverage (almost all do), that risk is amplified.

The world is complicated. Things are changing. Outcomes are unknown. This is precisely why eschewing debt, not putting all your oeufs in one basket, ignoring FOMO and seeking a balanced life pave the best path forward. Happiness may be elusive. But you can at least be content.

With way less drama.

About the picture: “Have really learned a lot from your blog,” writes Joel in Belcarra, BC. “Thank you very much for all of your wisdom and your well-written and humourous posts on all topics. You do good work. This is Rusty.  He’s an Aussiedoodle.  Here he is enjoying Savory Island, BC.  Even though he doesn’t care about finances or politics, he enjoys seeing other dogs on your blog and eating expensive dog food.  Feel free to use his photo if you are ever inclined.”

141 comments ↓

#1 TurnerNation on 03.09.22 at 3:01 pm

Great tips on Steel supply hijinx from the steel bros.
Dipped into SLX.US steel ETF when it was $61 this morn.
I come here seeking alpha with zero hedge.
(Buy the dips or dip the buys?)

LIT.US…call it Tesla adjacent.


— Who co-owns ‘our’ Wheat board? Some Saudis?!

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Canadian_Wheat_Board#Transfer_of_CWB_to_Foreign_Hands_(2012-2015)
The Marketing Freedom for Grain Farmers Act instituted a timeline for the eventual privatization of CWB, requiring the board to formulate a plan by 2016, to be implemented in 2017.[47] On April 15, 2015, it was announced that a 50.1% majority stake in CWB would be acquired by Global Grain Group, a joint venture between Bunge Canada—a subsidiary of Bunge Limited, and SALIC Canada—a subsidiary of the Saudi Agricultural and Livestock Investment Company, for $250 million. The remaining equity of CWB will be held by its member farmers.[1]

#2 Dogman01 on 03.09.22 at 3:12 pm

If you want to have an informed opinion to counter the propaganda narrative in today’s MSM these articles give a decent perspective.

https://fair.org/home/what-you-should-really-know-about-ukraine/

https://fair.org/home/calling-russias-attack-unprovoked-lets-us-off-the-hook/

In the geopolitical power struggle, that in the instance of Ukraine has uniquely moved from being covert to overt the conflict is caused by sociopaths of differing stripes on both sides, ultimately It’s the crips and the bloods and all about power, access, and cronyism, each gang run’s their own propaganda and battle for minds, but don’t be fooled, deep down they are all ruthless SOB’s.

Video of people being blown up in their homes by Russian armour is not ‘propaganda’. It’s unconscionable and unjustifiable. – Garth

#3 Dave on 03.09.22 at 3:12 pm

Why doesn’t BoC put housing into their inflation calculator?

Because it would be at 20%+ and their would be protests z.
and riots

Gas is at $2.10….hey doesn’t Trudeau reduces those taxes.

Your screwed everywhere you look….whats Garths response. You could be in Ukraine and dead.

They don’t put houses in the mix for the same reason stocks are not there. Real estate has been financialized, and we did it to each other. – Garth

#4 OriginalAlex on 03.09.22 at 3:14 pm

Reading the news these days, it’s hard to fathom people complain about their portfolios or the price of gas. Just count your blessings and hold your loved ones tighter.

#5 Timmy on 03.09.22 at 3:27 pm

CAE is up over 9 percent today, wish I owned more…
Time to short the Euro?

#6 ElGatoNeroYVR on 03.09.22 at 3:28 pm

I only have one question :Does anybody believe that prices (except real estate and gasoline) will actually come down ,ya know groceries ,consumer products ,rent , hotels , travel …

#7 Doug t on 03.09.22 at 3:33 pm

I blame the interwebby thingamabob – ever since it was released to the masses we have become less human

#8 HUNGRY BEAR on 03.09.22 at 3:35 pm

STAY BALANCED:

40% Bitcoin
40% Large Cap Cryptocurrencies
20% Small Cap Cryptocurrencies

Just keep in my that all crypto is “Software”.
Do you know of any very successful software companies?

#9 TheDood on 03.09.22 at 3:38 pm

It’s worth noting an entire generation of house-buyers, for example, have morphed into adults during a period of negative interest rates (below inflation), home loans costing as little as 1%, price stability and relative calm. Poor Millennials. They’re encountering reality. Not coping well. Modest inflation becomes ‘hyperinflation’. Nobody believes the cost of money can rise even by 1%. A market pullback of 10% means stocks are ‘crashing,’ going to zero. Ukraine equals WW3. We’re all doomed.
____________________

I’ve been looking for an explanation like this one to try and best describe the current reality to my university aged kids. Thanks.

#10 Difference on 03.09.22 at 3:41 pm

What is the difference between NATO invasion of Iraq and Russian invasion of Ukraine? Media Attention, Western Reaction and Sanctions.

Nine Eleven was the catalyst. And Zelenskyy ain’t Saddam. – Garth

#11 bipolar on 03.09.22 at 3:43 pm

Sill the same with me. I am happier to be content than content to be happy. The market? This is just waves.

#12 Jens on 03.09.22 at 3:47 pm

So unlike in 1981, where interest rates were 5.4 percentage points above the inflation rate and saving made sense, the current BOC interest rate is almost 5 percentage points below inflation. And nobody expects interest rates to go up more than another 2% or so in the next two years. What will happen if government and Canadians alike realize that debt is king and start spending even more lavishly, courtesy of [email protected] happily offering them an even more outlandish mortgage or HELOC increase?

#13 BlogDog123 on 03.09.22 at 3:56 pm

The price of gas going through the roof, if it stays that way for a LOOONG time will change consumer behaviour to buy smaller cars and drive less.

A forecast of what escalating carbon pricing does to drivers’ wallets (carbon rebate not so great for rural folks who drive long distances).

In the short term, not so much influence on behaviours… You now have less money to spend elsewhere filling that tank o’ gas for $125.

#14 Shawn on 03.09.22 at 4:06 pm

Yep, life is good in Canada

Especially, did I mention?, in Alberta. Come on over here!

#15 ElGatoNeroYVR on 03.09.22 at 4:09 pm

#13 BlogDog123 on 03.09.22 at 3:56 pm
The price of gas going through the roof, if it stays that way for a LOOONG time will change consumer behaviour to buy smaller cars and drive less
============
I wish you are right. As a proud ex-owner of a Mini-Cooper it was intimidating to say the least to commmute daily between the herd of SUV’s and pick-up trucks ,ofcourse one person per monster car.
Sadly it will take the gas price to reach and stay at $5 litre to get people into cars ,and even then I doubt it though one can only hope.

#16 Leroy full on Indian food on 03.09.22 at 4:11 pm

Is that a real dog?

#17 crowdedelevatorfartz on 03.09.22 at 4:13 pm

Wow the sand on Savory Island looks a lot like the North Shore of PEI.

#18 Ballingsford on 03.09.22 at 4:14 pm

Rusty’s smile makes me smile! Thank goodness we have dogs to keep us level.

#19 Shawn on 03.09.22 at 4:18 pm

YES Housing Costs most certainly are in CPI

#3 Dave on 03.09.22 at 3:12 pm

Why doesn’t BoC put housing into their inflation calculator?

Because it would be at 20%+ and their would be protests z.
and riots

Gas is at $2.10….hey doesn’t Trudeau reduces those taxes.

Your screwed everywhere you look….whats Garths response. You could be in Ukraine and dead.

They don’t put houses in the mix for the same reason stocks are not there. Real estate has been financialized, and we did it to each other. – Garth

*************************
They most certainly do put the cost of housing into CPI! (rents and mortgages and property tax and replacement cost and insurance and electricity and more).

Fact check needed:

https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/pub/71-607-x/71-607-x2018016-eng.htm

It’s right here for gosh sakes, shelter if fully 30% of the weight in the CPI basket!!!

https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/pub/71-607-x/2018016/cpi-ipc-eng.htm

Yet we repeatedly hear it is not in CPI?

The cost of owned accommodation is 20% of the basket! The cost to replace the house is 5.6% of the basket. It’s all there.

Please let’s not spread a nd perpetuate the lie or misunderstanding that housing costs are not in CPI. God, it makes up 30% of CPI and people claim it’s not included! Uninformed!!

I know emotions rule the day, but facts matter!
\
Accommodation overhead is of course included. Housing asset values are not. I think that was the point. – Garth

#20 James on 03.09.22 at 4:20 pm

#10 Difference on 03.09.22 at 3:41 pm

What is the difference between NATO invasion of Iraq and Russian invasion of Ukraine? Media Attention, Western Reaction and Sanctions.

Nine Eleven was the catalyst. And Zelenskyy ain’t Saddam. – Garth
__________________________________________
Are you discussing the First Gulf War?

Persian Gulf War, also called Gulf War, (1990–91), was an international conflict that was triggered by Iraq’s invasion of Kuwait on August 2, 1990. Iraq’s leader, Saddam Hussein, ordered the invasion and occupation of Kuwait with the apparent aim of acquiring that nation’s large oil reserves, canceling a large debt Iraq owed Kuwait, and expanding Iraqi power in the region. During that time the Iraq army raped and pillaged the country of Kuwait indiscriminately killing thousands of people.
Second Gulf war Saddam Hussein was more brutal and was eliminated. The pretense for the second war was not accurate and they did not WMD as was thought however Hussein’s government was a brutal regime and killed tens of thousands of their own people.

I assumed the reference was to 2003. – Garth

#21 Bill Ferguson on 03.09.22 at 4:21 pm

Ah, yes, the TO realtor, John Pasalis. The guy who can never pick a lane and stay in it…he hates me, too, BTW.

#22 Blobby on 03.09.22 at 4:23 pm

Has anyone noticed, the same people trying to convince you Putin is a nice guy – are the same people who spread nonsense about masks/vaccines?

Its almost as if there’s a connection….

…and supported Trump. – Garth

#23 PutinOnTheRitz on 03.09.22 at 4:24 pm

Garth is the ultimate boomer. It has to be said

I will take that to be synonymous with ‘font of experience and knowledge.’ – Garth

#24 Chris on 03.09.22 at 4:26 pm

Your blog and advice is always welcome Garth, and grounding in these uncertain times. Thank you.

#25 Logic and Reason on 03.09.22 at 4:28 pm

Stock markets are at all time highs and Garth says it’s all good.

Housing is at all time highs and Garth says doom and gloom.

I see a pattern here.

Equities reflect economic conditions. House prices in Canada reflect emotions. Which part of that don’t you understand? – Garth

#26 Blobby on 03.09.22 at 4:28 pm

>Gas is at $2.10….hey doesn’t Trudeau reduces those taxes.

When taxes go up by 1c, the Gas stations raise their prices by 10c. If taxes got reduced by 10c, you wouldnt see any actual difference at the pump – the gas companies would just pocket profit.

If a price of a barrel of oil goes up, the pump prices rise the very next hour. If oil goes down in price, pump prices stay the same for months.

#27 Shawn on 03.09.22 at 4:31 pm

Accommodation overhead is of course included. Housing asset values are not. I think that was the point. – Garth

Agreed. But they guy said housing is not in CPI. A lot of people seem to believe that. Not you of course.

Housing asset prices also work their way in over time through the replacement cost component and interest component it would seem

Anyhow the CPI visualization tool I linked to is fun.

#28 Sovavia on 03.09.22 at 4:34 pm

Inflation erodes purchasing power and encourages more debt.

Best to pay attention to the composition of equity markets.

Much worse to come with respect to inflation: the beginning, the middle or the end of the story?!?

At least spring is just around the corner.

#29 the jaguar on 03.09.22 at 4:38 pm

Rusty’s expression says ” Me worry? Hell no! Life’s a beach! “

#30 Shawn on 03.09.22 at 4:38 pm

Housing costs in CPI

In fairness Dave said Bank of Canada does not put it into CPI. Stats Can certainly does.

Bank of Canada I am not so sure. They do look at core numbers more so.

Well anyhow, the main point obviously is housing costs are lower in Alberta. So come on over.

#31 Sail Away on 03.09.22 at 4:39 pm

#14 Shawn on 03.09.22 at 4:06 pm

Yep, life is good in Canada

Especially, did I mention?, in Alberta. Come on over here!

——–

We’ve explored an office in the municipality of Wood Buffalo (Fort Mac), and might decide to pull the trigger.

Instant salary doubling for those who care about that sort of thing.

#32 Linda on 03.09.22 at 4:42 pm

Sand, sea & blue sky above – no wonder ‘Rusty’ has a happy canine smile:)

#33 Shawn on 03.09.22 at 4:42 pm

Yeah, Yeah businesses are greedy and face no competition?

#26 Blobby on 03.09.22 at 4:28 pm
>Gas is at $2.10….hey doesn’t Trudeau reduces those taxes.

When taxes go up by 1c, the Gas stations raise their prices by 10c. If taxes got reduced by 10c, you wouldnt see any actual difference at the pump – the gas companies would just pocket profit.

If a price of a barrel of oil goes up, the pump prices rise the very next hour. If oil goes down in price, pump prices stay the same for months.

***********************************
Typical false view of someone that has never run a business or faced competition.

Where were these comments in 2020 when gasoline prices cratered down a lot?

Why don’t people with these views own tons of gasoline retailer shares? (Try Alimentation Couche-Tard and Parkland)

#34 earthboundmisfit on 03.09.22 at 4:42 pm

#14 “Yep, life is good in Canada
Especially, did I mention?, in Alberta. Come on over here!”

Hey Shawn … try not to piss it all away this time, eh?

#35 45north on 03.09.22 at 4:47 pm

If you’re a refugee on a bus fleeing furtively across the border with Poland, your husband-warrior and smashed house in the dust behind then, yes, there’s drama and sorrow.

I mean like this

https://i.cbc.ca/1.6376920.1646755966!/fileImage/httpImage/image.JPG_gen/derivatives/original_620/ukraine-crisis.JPG.

#36 KLNR on 03.09.22 at 4:48 pm

@#10 Difference on 03.09.22 at 3:41 pm
What is the difference between NATO invasion of Iraq and Russian invasion of Ukraine? Media Attention, Western Reaction and Sanctions.

Nine Eleven was the catalyst. And Zelenskyy ain’t Saddam. – Garth

one is fiction?
NATO didn’t invade Iraq.

#37 pPrasseur on 03.09.22 at 4:50 pm

The problem with inflation: that particular problem can’t be kicked down the road. Why do you think rates went up so high in the 80s, simply because nothing else would work. You can’t regulate, spend or print your way out of inflation, which is understandable since the problem is a result of printing and spending.

No amount of new debt, money printing, new taxes will work.

The western nanny state was never sustainable, but we kicked the problem down the road so many times with government debt, more taxes, promoting household debt, etc. Not this time…

#38 Barb on 03.09.22 at 4:50 pm

Rusty looks as though he’s about to begin a comedy skit.
Great looking pup.

#39 VladTor on 03.09.22 at 4:50 pm

Italians about expected gasoline prices. Everything is clear without translation..

They’re still joking!

https://t.me/belshkvarka/38977

or

https://glav.su/forum/threads/1620506

#40 pPrasseur on 03.09.22 at 4:58 pm

…and supported Trump. – Garth

Yeah, except Putin invaded under Obama and now Biden, not Trump.

Trump tried to convince Europeans to honor their commitments to NATO.

Oh and he was for energy independence, nor for importing oil from dictators who hate us.

But hey, let’s blame Trump, after all it worked before!

#41 Fringe members take up space on 03.09.22 at 4:58 pm

DELETED (Ridiculing public figures by distorting their names is childish and will not be tolerated.)

#42 Søren Angst on 03.09.22 at 5:00 pm

B&D.

Up.

———-

“inflation was 12.5% in 1981, when the Bank of Canada rate was 17.9% (today it’s 0.5%) and mortgages cost 21% (now 3%). We survived.”

We did survive.

Today’s crowd best description for them is:

Misery loves company. Whiners. Poor me.

———-

Russia now on a charm offensive on Twitter showing humanitarian aid to e.g., Kharkiv.

They’re losing and they know it.

Fighting a long range war. Missiles, artillery etc. from far away. Killing civilians instead.

Ukrainians complaining Russian armour, soldiers and aircraft won’t engage them.

Putin will not survive this.

It will be over soon. When it is, hopefully Russia will not tear itself apart for their people’s sake.

As for Putin, tear away.

#43 IHCTD9 on 03.09.22 at 5:03 pm

#14 Shawn on 03.09.22 at 4:06 pm
Yep, life is good in Canada

Especially, did I mention?, in Alberta. Come on over here!
———-

Haha! You sound like me 3-4 years ago, “Come on out to the sticks for the good life!”. But, then they did – and now average SFD’s are up almost 100%. Just about every house listed in my little Podunk right now is via a GTA realtor. Fishing trips galore. At least the hillbillies are getting rich. They’re probably all moving out East!

Anyway, I hope Kenny is paying you a commission. :)

#44 Sail Away on 03.09.22 at 5:03 pm

#22 Blobby on 03.09.22 at 4:23 pm

Has anyone noticed, the same people trying to convince you Putin is a nice guy – are the same people who spread nonsense about masks/vaccines?

Its almost as if there’s a connection….

“…and supported Trump. – Garth”

———

Healthy skepticism is important for those who seek to avoid joining a subset perhaps best described as vapid, gullible, mouth-breathing, repetitive parrots.

Because often enough, media is, you know, wrong:

https://www.ctvnews.ca/canada/patrick-brown-settles-lawsuit-with-ctv-no-money-exchanges-hands-1.5812455

https://www.dailywire.com/news/breaking-nicholas-sandmann-nbc-news-reach-settlement-in-defamation-suit

https://theintercept.com/2019/01/20/beyond-buzzfeed-the-10-worst-most-embarrassing-u-s-media-failures-on-the-trumprussia-story/

#45 Phylis on 03.09.22 at 5:03 pm

Inflation impacts are interesting, but with a single basket of goods, do we know if we all experience it equally? That is to say, what would three different baskets that represent low, middle and upper income’s purchases look like?

#46 Philco on 03.09.22 at 5:08 pm

#201 bdwy on 03.08.22 at 1:55 pm
#184 Philco on 03.08.22 at 12:33 pm
PS looks like Oils done for now…with its parabolic move
……
ahem…may want to rethink that

don’t mistake a whiff of fed hopium (quick start to an engine!) for the quickly disappearing whipsaw stonk pop when the real news of russia slamming pipes shut.
150 oil coming.
========================
Likely but just way over bought technically. Gold too.
I’m still sitting on my $330 oz gold hoard. Might have to sell to cover my extra building costs! CRAZY stuff!
=======================
Update: Told ya WHACKO! Major reversal day.
Oil -25$ in a couple days.
Gold -75$ today
It was baked in.

#47 Reality Check on 03.09.22 at 5:11 pm

On a lighter note how about some fun with mortgage numbers and rising rates.

As we have heard in the comment section there is a view that if inflation causes rates to rise it will also cause wages to rise commensurately. So higher mortgages payment would be no problem because you would be making more money.

OK let’s think about that thesis. Let’s say rates go to 10%. (Unthinkable right? But this has happened twice in the last 40 years.)

Now say you have $1 million mortgage at 2.5 percent – that’s roughly $4,450/m. To support that with 50% after tax income you need to be making $9,000/m.

Now let’s say rates rise to 10%. That’s a monthly payment of about $9,000/m. To support that with 50% after tax income you need a monthly income of $18,000/m.

If interest rates and wages go up at the same rate, no problem. But interest rates usually go up much, much faster than wages. As we saw in the early 1980s and early 1990s interest rates can go up 3, 4, 5 percent in one year. While wages often do not move at all.

Plus all other costs of owing a house will be going up – taxes, upkeep and utilities.

This could all get really ugly for people forced into renewing and as well will really reduce buying power of new people coming into the market.

Nasty, what a huge risk people buying today are taking.

#48 West New West on 03.09.22 at 5:11 pm

Thanks for more comments on the posts than usual…..the extra chuckle is so worth the scan

#49 Market Conditions on 03.09.22 at 5:20 pm

Equities reflect economic conditions. House prices in Canada reflect emotions. Which part of that don’t you understand? – Garth
—————————————-

House prices in Canada (and elsewhere) reflect market conditions. When demand outpaces supply, prices go up. There are many reasons for high demand in Canada and emotions are only one.

#50 Faron on 03.09.22 at 5:22 pm

inspired by Ustabe here’s a recip for excellent pinto beans :

soak beans overnight.
drain and rinse beans and add to slow cooker
add water until beans are well covered
add 6-10 dried (or fresh) bay leaves
2 tbsp ground dried chipotle peppers
4 cloves garlic
2 heaping tsp oregano or equivalent fresh

cook until tender on high setting if you are home or low setting while at work

add salt to taste AFTER cooking

a ham hock wouldn’t hurt, but delicious as vegetarian.

avoid CEF at all costs.

#51 Philco on 03.09.22 at 5:27 pm

No shit Garth.
My 2cents cause I’ve been around the block.
The only way to survive your port. is [email protected] as the numbers proved in the correction here.
Its looks to me that’s everything’s in a bubble but hard to completely calculate the amount in different market PLUS the stupid sentiment.
If your buying RE now good luck you better understand all of the risks and the leverage your taking on. Like if you lost your job, increases in OP costs and interest rates to come ect.
If we do eventually have a wipe out (deflationary upset) You just ride it out on your portfolio maybe add some dough if it makes sense. If your a newbie in the RE market your going to see your equity go up in smoke real fast.
So those calling for a RE crash I can guarantee you everything’s going to get WACKED if it did. If ya haven’t done stupid things all along why worry? Those calling for continuous booming of RE good luck. I smell a price rise slowdown.
My REIT charts look rock solid and have gone up not corrected at all.
Good luck and steady as she goes….

#52 Common Sense on 03.09.22 at 5:37 pm

RE: #20 James

The difference between the gulf war and Ukraine

The better comparison would be:

Why did NATO step in during the gulf war when Iraq invaded Kuwait and now is NOT stepping in with Russia invading Ukraine?

In both instances there is an autocrat making a power grab and threatening western commodity security.

The answer is: Nukes

#53 chalkie on 03.09.22 at 5:38 pm

Maybe John P hates you Garth, but we love you for your reality – simply because of your no sugar coating, you tell it like it is, so dont worry about John P’s 180 views, your Sails are in the Easterly wind and your views are headed in the right direction. The realtors have had glory days over the past year and a half, the chicken are coming home to roost.

#54 Søren Angst on 03.09.22 at 5:38 pm

Italia Popcorn.

Guardia di Finanza.

As one Swiss observer stated, probably a rich banker:

“it is not so smart of the oligarchs to live where the Guardia di Finanza operates. Because not all countries in Europe have such a powerful militarized police force fighting financial crimes as the Italians.”

Be GRATEFUL Canada they do not come knocking on YOUR DOOR for unpaid taxes (or lying on taxes).

Latest by Guardia di Finanza, besides many, many, Oligarch Villa and Large Boat seizures *, is they went after PUTIN’S ARCHITECT Lanfranco Cirillo (Putin’s Palace on the Black Sea).

Besides seizing Lanfranco’s helicopter they also seized this from him:

Paintings by Picasso, Cezanne, Mirò and Chagall among 143 artworks.

https://www.thelocal.it/20220308/ukraine-italy-urges-other-countries-to-move-quickly-on-seizing-russian-assets/?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter

———–

Rumour on Twitter is yesterday they’ve got their eye on Putin’s Large Boat just off the coast of Toscana **.

Should be fun. Sick ’em GDF.

*For example:
https://twitter.com/DerGeidorfer/status/1500219555691610114
https://twitter.com/nerinni/status/1501333316502446081
** https://twitter.com/Corriere/status/1501573235686748168
https://twitter.com/jacopo_iacoboni/status/1500003925365243905

Moral of the Story.

Canadians: if you should ever owe taxes to Italia, pay them. Pay them now.

#55 IHCTD9 on 03.09.22 at 5:40 pm

#26 Blobby on 03.09.22 at 4:28 pm
>Gas is at $2.10….hey doesn’t Trudeau reduces those taxes.

When taxes go up by 1c, the Gas stations raise their prices by 10c. If taxes got reduced by 10c, you wouldnt see any actual difference at the pump – the gas companies would just pocket profit.

If a price of a barrel of oil goes up, the pump prices rise the very next hour. If oil goes down in price, pump prices stay the same for months.
— —— –

Right around the start of the Pandemic, I received a photo from Ms. IH via email. It was a shot of the price of fuel on the pump she just filled up at: .67 litre. (Ontario)

There is enough competition out there to grind the price down. Volume = profit, not margin.

#56 crowdedelevatorfartz on 03.09.22 at 5:43 pm

@ #50 Faron

“avoid CEF at all costs.”

+++

Hey hey hey… :)

#57 Reality Check on 03.09.22 at 5:46 pm

And furthermore…….

Remember the Covid conspiracy theorists said the plan was to enslave us all, depopulate the world, and the first step was to make us compliant. And part of the “compliance” training was mask wearing, social distancing and vaccine mandates.

On the other side were the people that basically saw the pandemic for what it indeed was – a serious viral illness that needed to be dealt with by using measure to stop transmission until a vaccine could be produced.

And now that we have a vaccine and infections are trending down we no longer need the mandates.

And thus the mandate having served there purpose disappear, just as rationale science said they would.

The newest nail in coffin of the “Covid-enslavement/depop” conspiracy corpse is Ontario’s rescinding of most mask mandates. Ontario is rapidly heading back to business as normal (at least for us who are vaccinated).

Just as science always predicted, the pandemic would run it course and society would return to normal. 5 years from now people will try to remember what covid and it’s mandates were like and we won’t be enslave/depopped by Bill Gates and the Illuminati.

And as a final aside – for those that really think the entire world population can be controlled, just look at how easily three levels of government were made to look like babbling, ineffectuals by a few hundred semi-organized antivax truckers with little or no protest experience.

Imagine how impossible it would be government had a few million people opposed to mandates.

#58 NOSTRADAMUS on 03.09.22 at 5:48 pm

BUT, AND THIS IS A BIG BUT.
Amazing, simply amazing how well large public companies can do when the government forcibly closes their competitors. All the while dropping billions in helicopter money to their customer base. In addition to making free money available on the capital markets. Amazing, simply amazing. But and this is a big but, it can’t last without permanent stimulus. That’s the issue for people claiming the market is forward looking. Once again, this is not a fire drill, this is a 20 alarm inferno. Without exaggeration, with the withdrawal of liquidity, the game is over. TILT! Sleep tight my little beauties.

#59 Søren Angst on 03.09.22 at 5:55 pm

#50 Faron et. al.

Come to Italia to learn how to eat well (and cook, bake, drink, etc.).

Start with the English version of this:

La scienza in cucina e l’arte di mangiar bene
– Pellegrino Artusi

Recall, the Medici Sisters introduced the French to Italian cuisine not to mention we taught they how to drink out of a glass goblet and what a fork is for.

Before that the French ate with their hands their greasy sausage (and/or stabbed it with a knife) like the Germans still do.

#60 Barb on 03.09.22 at 6:01 pm

H just said that Mossad should go “have a quiet chat” with Putin.
He’ll put his money on the Israelis every time.
Apparently my money, too.

#61 Warren-the-lagging_indicator on 03.09.22 at 6:06 pm

Oh I see, it is all misleading nuances in the language or the law, like how the idea of US bio-labs existing in the Ukraine is Trunq-level conspiracy or how Switzerland is still neutral after changing the definition to exclude economic sanctions or how Poland can give fighter jets to Ukraine through the US so as to not give fighter jets to the Ukraine. What a world of deception in which we live, it is almost like we are controlled by lawyers and actors or something. Putin is an especially good one, actor that is. Nah, our Justin is aweso… no wait Trunq is the hands down bes… scratch that, Obama takes the cake for sure .. no wait, ah forget it.

#62 Pricedoutmillenial on 03.09.22 at 6:13 pm

(And I didn’t even mention what the feds plan to do to RE investors.)

This is from yesterday’s blog. So is some regulation finally coming? Not that it will make much difference. NZ regulations introduced 6 months back did not move the needle on NZ real estate prices and apparently now they are aiming for “Price Stabilization” in place of rampant increase in prices.

#63 habitt on 03.09.22 at 6:15 pm

#50 Faron Merci! Add 2 tablespoons of molasses.

#64 sean on 03.09.22 at 6:21 pm

#52 Common Sense on 03.09.22 at 5:37 pm

Why did NATO step in during the gulf war when Iraq invaded Kuwait and now is NOT stepping in with Russia invading Ukraine?

The answer is: Nukes

————————————–

The answer is: Ukraine isn’t floating on top of ~100+ Billion barrels of crude oil.

#65 X on 03.09.22 at 6:24 pm

Had a mortgage broker tell me today they are still advising to go variable. Said the last time there was a war (Iraq?) that there was a recession after and rates just went back down.

Personally, I think rates are going to climb for awhile on this one, perhaps a variable would be best to renew, but my gut says a 5 yr closed might be best for anyone buying now.

Although anyone buying now is a cowboy anyways.

#66 Citizen Kane on 03.09.22 at 6:30 pm

gas &food will cost Canadians about $3000 and still small raises and war effort and covid hanging..things could be heading to the BIG R..so glad I bought a house in 2017..2.5 X increase from what I paid..not bad for 5 yrs!

#67 Philco on 03.09.22 at 6:51 pm

#40 pPrasseur on 03.09.22 at 4:58 pm
…and supported Trump. – Garth

Yeah, except Putin invaded under Obama and now Biden, not Trump.
Trump tried to convince Europeans to honor their commitments to NATO.
Oh and he was for energy independence, nor for importing oil from dictators who hate us.
But hey, let’s blame Trump, after all it worked before!
======================
They started blaming Trump 5min after hey won the election.
I was happy the Clinton gang didn’t get in. Their deplorable and have a ugly history and that is a fact.
They continued to blame him for everything through the whole term and the lefties burned and trashed stuff right up to the election. He lost and it all stopped instantly.
Tell me if I’m wrong?
The socialist left is ugly.

#68 dragonfly58 on 03.09.22 at 6:51 pm

So Garth, or anyone civil for that matter. What is a reasonable, financial , survival strategy for the misses and I. Mid 60’s, retired, modest paid for house out in the Fraser Valley. in general a very frugal life style. No debt, but a number of things we would like to do with the rest of our lives. Wife likes to travel in a frugal way. I like old sports cars. Pension income is OK but far from high zoot.
House is old and needy. I supply 99% of the labor but materials are a steady bleed. And I really would like to build a decent garage / workshop within the next 3 years once the house midlife overhaul is behind me.
Inflation is making a tight situation almost impossible. Particularly on building materials and the projected cost of the shop. I could go back to work and hire someone to work on the house. But I would need to work a full day or perhaps more to pay for every 2 hours a tradesman is on the job. So not really practical. No investments to speak of. Just a very minor RRSP. I have money set aside for the shop. Many years of diligent scrimping and saving. But the ballooning of costs of materials for the house is starting to eat into the shop fund . The way it is now looking with virtually everything in our lives costing more, and going up much faster than pensions are increasing, it’s probably going to be more like a decade before the house is complete and the shop is built rather than the 5 years that seemed reasonable just a couple of years ago. That puts me in my mid 70’s before I can start actually enjoying my retirement, and who knows how tie limited things like health become at that point. No money tree out back. And what seemed like a reasonably adequate pension income only 5 years ago is now starting to look like something that will just scrape us by.
Yes a great situation by the Ukrainian standard rating. But after a pair of 4 decade careers in Canada, a bit of a downward spiral.

#69 Blobby on 03.09.22 at 6:53 pm

@#44 Sail Away :

Ah, I see, you get your information from facebook, youtube and tucker carlson and are being played like a fiddle.

All while thinking you’re being SMRT… lol

#70 Ustabe on 03.09.22 at 6:56 pm

All of you all need to Google up “butterfly mines”.

These are small mines, designed to maim, not kill. They are produced in playful colours and are sort of shaped like the seed pod of a maple tree, the helicopter seed you all have played with, right?

Well Putin, who some of you so admire, is now dropping these small mines into playgrounds, children’s hospital grounds and etc.

He has his military announce a civilian escape route out of a city, promising a cease fire only to find that route is now land mined.

Yet, still, there are far too many that seemingly tolerate Putin’s sociopathic brutality. A 20th century KGB man in the 21st century.

#71 Philco on 03.09.22 at 7:16 pm

#7 Doug t on 03.09.22 at 3:33 pm
I blame the interwebby thingamabob – ever since it was released to the masses we have become less human
————————————————————-
So funny dude lol.
The inventor disappointed too.
Social media is a disaster and my buddy super tech calls FB a cesspool.
https://www.vanityfair.com/news/2018/07/the-man-who-created-the-world-wide-web-has-some-regrets

#72 Greg on 03.09.22 at 7:35 pm

Can anyone tell me why our dollar has decoupled from the price of a barrel of oil? I’ve yet to see any valid reason for this.

#73 Stone on 03.09.22 at 7:36 pm

#65 X on 03.09.22 at 6:24 pm
Had a mortgage broker tell me today they are still advising to go variable. Said the last time there was a war (Iraq?) that there was a recession after and rates just went back down.

Personally, I think rates are going to climb for awhile on this one, perhaps a variable would be best to renew, but my gut says a 5 yr closed might be best for anyone buying now.

Although anyone buying now is a cowboy anyways.

———

Don’t have a mortgage nor a need for one either. I do have a B&D portfolio that continues to be wonderful. I didn’t borrow from the future to fund the present. Did the opposite instead and as a result, never will need to borrow money, ever. B&D portfolio sitting at -2.82% YTD.

#74 Ponzius Pilatus on 03.09.22 at 7:44 pm

The embargos, sanctions and bans on everything are working like a charm.
About 6 months ago, I gave my UBC student daughter my Q5 Audi, as I no longer needed it.
The conditions were that she had to pay for gas, insurance and maintenance.
The other day, with high gas prices and insurance renewal looming, she told me:
I no longer need the car! TOOO expensive.
So we agreed to sell the car and split the proceeds.
Used car prices are at a premium right now.
She is close to public transport, and can use Herr Uber when needed.
Smart girl, just like her dad.

#75 Ponzius Pilatus on 03.09.22 at 7:53 pm

I was pretty disgusted to hear that Ovi was jeered during the Capitals game in Calgary.
He’s the marque player in the NHL right now.
no fault of his that he was born in Russia.
Non the less, he scored 2 Goals in a win against Flames to tie Jaromir Jagr for 3rd overall, closing in on Gretz.

#76 Philco on 03.09.22 at 7:54 pm

cute pooch looks like a toy
Savory Island, BC
My back yard. I remeber when water front lots were $4k

#77 Flop… on 03.09.22 at 7:57 pm

Took my work van to the works yard and filled up with free taxpayer gas.

I was looking over my shoulder, it just felt so wrong and dirty…

M47BC

#78 Neptunian on 03.09.22 at 8:00 pm

We have an official inflation at 5.1%. If BoC really wants to control inflation, how much should they increase the rate to? Much higher than 0.5%, corrected? But why they only increased 0.25 and the wild guess is to no more than 2% in next 24 months? Because BoC is handcuffed by the debt everyone has, RE is just too big to fail.

This is the theory all RE investors have. It is sad though.

#79 Ed on 03.09.22 at 8:15 pm

I am no fan of Trump but he stood head & shoulders above our current leaders on international relations.

Putin’s poodle, I think they called him. – Garth

#80 DON on 03.09.22 at 8:18 pm

#12 Jens on 03.09.22 at 3:47 pm
So unlike in 1981, where interest rates were 5.4 percentage points above the inflation rate and saving made sense, the current BOC interest rate is almost 5 percentage points below inflation. And nobody expects interest rates to go up more than another 2% or so in the next two years. What will happen if government and Canadians alike realize that debt is king and start spending even more lavishly, courtesy of [email protected] happily offering them an even more outlandish mortgage or HELOC increase?

********

I think they already went down the debt is king/heloc binge. But no doubt some people will go further like a dog hoarding a bone.

#81 Nonplused on 03.09.22 at 8:25 pm

Boy people sure seem to know a lot about what is going on in Ukraine especially since there is absolutely no credible information of any kind coming out of there, from either side.

Except for the satellite imagery. I suppose we can rely on that when it’s not cloudy. It shows that Russia is losing badly by slowly advancing towards all their targets with little in the way of any Ukrainian heavy equipment nearby.

It is the economic war that will be decisive here, not anything happening on the ground. Russia appears to be winning on the ground, they just aren’t trying to set any speed records. Haste makes waste. But the whole of NATO is fully involved in the economic war and I don’t know if Russia can survive that. I mean how do you defend the ruble when the US Fed has just gone ahead and seized all your foreign reserves? How can you sell your oil when no banks will deal with you? Even if you did sell your oil and get your money, where would you store it in light of the fact that even your foreign reserves aren’t safe? Pallets of cash and gold flown to Moscow? How do you keep your companies listed on international markets when all the accounting firms have pulled out? This is the war worth watching, because I don’t know if there is much Russia can do about it but lose.

But in the end, China wins both wars. At no point in the future will any country that has a disagreement with the US be keen to deal with the US banking system. Is China better? No. But they haven’t seized anyone’s foreign reserves yet. And China is willing to look the other way over the odd human rights abuse, as long as it makes business sense. All that Russian oil and wheat will forever flow east now, Europe be damned.

And who loses? As always, the poor. As gas heads towards $2.00 a liter here in Canada there is much wailing and gnashing of teeth, but the gas still flows. You buck up and you buy it. There is no shortage. However, in the third world it isn’t going to be that simple. They simply won’t be able to afford it. They will be priced out. It will be unavailable to them. The demand destruction equal to all of Russia’s exports will be absorbed solely by the third world. The same goes for all the other Russian exports like wheat, aluminum, steel, corn, sunflower oil, palladium (although I think catalytic converters are a western thing so they probably don’t need that), etc. We will still get our stuff by paying more. The poor will go without. Oh well, war always has casualties. And those people aren’t on Twitter so we don’t have to burden our minds with their suffering. We will concentrate only on our own suffering at the pump. I mean, my Dog, it is costing me nearly $15 more to fill up the car! For reference the carbon taxes are adding $10 a fill. There is evil everywhere in the world.

#82 Ponzius Pilatus on 03.09.22 at 8:29 pm

#59 Søren Angst on 03.09.22 at 5:55 pm
#50 Faron et. al.

Come to Italia to learn how to eat well (and cook, bake, drink, etc.).

Start with the English version of this:

La scienza in cucina e l’arte di mangiar bene
– Pellegrino Artusi

Recall, the Medici Sisters introduced the French to Italian cuisine not to mention we taught they how to drink out of a glass goblet and what a fork is for.

Before that the French ate with their hands their greasy sausage (and/or stabbed it with a knife) like the Germans still do.
————
Dolce Vita was barely tolerable with his Italia stick.
But you, signore, are just a chauvinistic pig.

#83 Albertistan on 03.09.22 at 8:33 pm

Canada is blessed with natural resources and cursed with the current leadership. Jason Kenney feels vindicated while pushing the ethical oil narrative. JT only commits to stand beside Europe on its path to renewables. A unique opportunity to shape the battlefield on oil sands vs the special interest groups lost. Same as it ever was. Let’s hope our farmers have a good season to help feed the world.

#84 DON on 03.09.22 at 8:50 pm

#25 Logic and Reason on 03.09.22 at 4:28 pm
Stock markets are at all time highs and Garth says it’s all good.

Housing is at all time highs and Garth says doom and gloom.

I see a pattern here.

Equities reflect economic conditions. House prices in Canada reflect emotions. Which part of that don’t you understand? – Garth

***************

Obviously not the Logic and Reason part of it!..ha haha hahaha

#85 CJohnC on 03.09.22 at 8:54 pm

While watching video of refugees leaving Ukraine, I find it disgusting the number of young men leaving to try and get sanctuary. These are the super soft young millennial and younger “social media” generations. They should man up and defend their country.

They are like the anti mask, anti vaccine trucker convoy group with their lack of self-esteem or will power.

Living in a world where the weak would rather guilt the strong than become strong themselves

#86 Philco on 03.09.22 at 8:57 pm

#79 Ed on 03.09.22 at 8:15 pm
I am no fan of Trump but he stood head & shoulders above our current leaders on international relations.

Putin’s poodle, I think they called him. – Garth
—————————————-
Who’s they? the crazy lefties?
Personally I didn’t see him cow tail to anyone but he did say he would rather work with Putty then get into a war?
No?

#87 Lord Garth of Izar on 03.09.22 at 9:01 pm

The traitors responsible for the sale of Petro Canada to private interests should face trial for crimes against the state. Their families should be standing with them when the court hands down the sentence.

#88 DON on 03.09.22 at 9:04 pm

“They could find themselves buying in an insanely hot market but selling in a much cooler market.”

Hmm. And where have you been reading about that?

Some cowboy boot, Harley riding young buck named Art Turn he has a blog called Greater Emotions?

#89 Shawn on 03.09.22 at 9:08 pm

Canadian dollar vs U.S. dolla versus oil

#72 Greg on 03.09.22 at 7:35 pm
Can anyone tell me why our dollar has decoupled from the price of a barrel of oil? I’ve yet to see any valid reason for this.

***********************
Well, ask instead why the exchange rate on the Canada versus U.S dollar should depend mostly on oil in the first place.

Ask why EVERYTHING in Canada should get more expensive in U.S. dollars when oil goes up as seems to be your theory.

And ANYHOW the answer you are looking for has been stated in the business news many times. In this go round of higher oil there is no massive influx of U,S, dollars investing in oil sands as there was last time.

You don’t like the answer so you fail to see it even though it’s in the business news frequently.

There has never been any rule that the Canadian dollar versus U.S. must depend greatly on oil prices. Just a correlation that sometimes exists sometimes does not. Someone simplifies and calls our dollar a petro currency but its just a theory. It’s not a law of nature.

Oil prices have swung massively many times in my lifetime. The Canadian dollar versus U.S. has been far more stable than oil prices.

#90 Ponzius Pilatus on 03.09.22 at 9:11 pm

I have not watched any news for the last 3 days.
Just reading the headlines of the few of my trusted newspapers/papers.
Even those are following the common narrative, with no real analysis what is going on in East Europe.
It’s the usual struggle between good and evil.
Easy to grasp for simple people.
Wake me up when the”War” is over.

#91 DON on 03.09.22 at 9:11 pm

Last big oil embargo…sounds like a pasta dish.

The Yom Kippur War, also known as the Ramadan War, the October War, the 1973 Arab–Israeli War or the Fourth Arab–Israeli War, was an armed conflict fought from 6 to 25 October 1973 between Israel and a coalition of Arab states led by Egypt and Syria. Wikipedia
Dates: Oct 6, 1973 – Oct 25, 1973

#92 crowdedelevatorfartz on 03.09.22 at 9:13 pm

@#82 Ponzies Paradigm
“Dolce Vita was barely tolerable with his Italia stick.
But you, signore, are just a chauvinistic pig.”

+++

You do realize Dolce renamed himself to Soren……

#93 Philco on 03.09.22 at 9:25 pm

Actually Rusty looks like a muppet :-)

#94 Philco on 03.09.22 at 9:37 pm

#90 Ponzius Pilatus on 03.09.22 at 9:11 pm

Works for me. News stations are nuts trying to push every headline.
Afghanistan must have got it self sorted.

#95 crowdedelevatorfartz on 03.09.22 at 9:38 pm

Some death stats from the Lower Brainland.

Since April 2016
8800 people have died from drug overdose in BC.

Thats more deaths than the last 6 years of Murders, Suicides, workplace deaths and all types of fatal Motor vehicle accidents combined.

#96 crowdedelevatorfartz on 03.09.22 at 9:41 pm

@#90 Ponzie’s Painful Problem.

“Easy to grasp for simple people.”

+++

So, you’re asking for us to explain it to you?

#97 KLNR on 03.09.22 at 9:42 pm

@#74 Ponzius Pilatus on 03.09.22 at 7:44 pm
The embargos, sanctions and bans on everything are working like a charm.
About 6 months ago, I gave my UBC student daughter my Q5 Audi, as I no longer needed it.
The conditions were that she had to pay for gas, insurance and maintenance.
The other day, with high gas prices and insurance renewal looming, she told me:
I no longer need the car! TOOO expensive.
So we agreed to sell the car and split the proceeds.
Used car prices are at a premium right now.
She is close to public transport, and can use Herr Uber when needed.
Smart girl, just like her dad.


this sail away’s burner?
you sound just like him.

#98 DON on 03.09.22 at 9:50 pm

#64 sean on 03.09.22 at 6:21 pm
#52 Common Sense on 03.09.22 at 5:37 pm

Why did NATO step in during the gulf war when Iraq invaded Kuwait and now is NOT stepping in with Russia invading Ukraine?

The answer is: Nukes

————————————–

The answer is: Ukraine isn’t floating on top of ~100+ Billion barrels of crude oil.

*********

And Survey says…XXX

Nope its the NUKES…and MAD.

#99 Ponzius Pilatus on 03.09.22 at 10:00 pm

#92 crowdedelevatorfartz on 03.09.22 at 9:13 pm
@#82 Ponzies Paradigm
“Dolce Vita was barely tolerable with his Italia stick.
But you, signore, are just a chauvinistic pig.”

+++

You do realize Dolce renamed himself to Soren……
——————
Well,
That’s his problem, is it not?

#100 T on 03.09.22 at 10:01 pm

#21 Bill Ferguson on 03.09.22 at 4:21 pm
Ah, yes, the TO realtor, John Pasalis. The guy who can never pick a lane and stay in it…he hates me, too, BTW.

————

Who is Bill Ferguson? Is he the guy who goes around promoting his housing crash Facebook group? The same Bill Ferguson who kicks people out of the same group for having different views than him?

Bill. No one asked you and no one cares.

#101 DON on 03.09.22 at 10:01 pm

#68 dragonfly58 on 03.09.22 at 6:51 pm
So Garth, or anyone civil for that matter. What is a reasonable, financial , survival strategy for the misses and I. Mid 60

******
Personaly I would sell at peak to a greater fool over asking as is, no conditions and rent in a small town on the seaside for 6 mths in the summer and go to Hawaii for the winter 6 mths Every year and live basic.

I like the shop idea also perhaps a hobby that makes money. High end wood working?

#102 Shawn on 03.09.22 at 10:09 pm

Given how fast things are moving…

The old saying has been officially changed to:

“Oh well, tomorrow is another month.”

#103 Craig on 03.09.22 at 10:42 pm

Re #79 and #86

Trump in Helsinki siding with Putin over the US intelligence agency . https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mBtsNNXjBPw

By the way, before trump went to Helsinki he asked his aides if Finland was in Russia.

#104 crowdedelevatorfartz on 03.09.22 at 10:53 pm

Will Russian dictators and oligarchs be moving to Beijing by Summer if the entire country starts running out of basic necessities….?

140 million angry people can’t ALL be tossed in jail.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=A8u6EpDctdw

#105 Yukon Elvis on 03.09.22 at 11:37 pm

#90 Ponzius Pilatus on 03.09.22 at 9:11 pm

Easy to grasp for simple people.
Wake me up when the”War” is over.
+++++++++++++++++
You get nice and comfy there. Have a nice nap. I will get a pillow.

#106 More Lard on 03.09.22 at 11:45 pm

DELETED (Ridiculing public figures by distorting their names is childish and will not be tolerated.)

HE doesn’t have the respect of the Canadian people and HE deserves all the ridicule we can give him. The world mocks HIM too.

#107 under the radar on 03.10.22 at 5:45 am

68- Steady as she goes. This all ends with a recession. Seems naive to think that a couple of .25 bps will tame inflation. In the short term you need additional income. A part time job makes sense. I don’t mean to sound trite, but find joy in what you have.

#108 Kenney Von on 03.10.22 at 6:49 am

DELETED

#109 Concerned Citizen on 03.10.22 at 7:21 am

Respectfully Garth, I would much prefer inflation at 15% and rates at 17% than inflation at 7% and rates at 0%. Highly negative real rates are a disaster, and an abject failure of monetary policy.

There’s good reason we gave the task of price stability to central bankers. Yet they seem to be getting away with not even trying to do their jobs.

#110 Dharma Bum on 03.10.22 at 7:34 am

#14 Shawn

Yep, life is good in Canada

Especially, did I mention?, in Alberta. Come on over here!
—————————————————————————————————-

Shhhhhhhhh!!!!

Don’t tell everybody! You’ll ruin it. Canada’s best kept secret.

I’m heading back for another visit next week. Land of the free. Land of the sane. The prairie. The mountains. The rivers. The big sky.

The absence of hipsters, wokesters, covidiots, treehuggers, climate emergency lunatics, virtue signallers, Trudeau lovers, pseudo-feminists, genderbenders, lefties, flag stealers, commies, pinkos, metrosexuals, dippers, and man buns makes it my happy place.

Visiting family and dogs, and skiing for several days is also a bonus.

Alberta – the land of Contentment.

No provincial sales tax, either.

#111 jess on 03.10.22 at 8:18 am

Sunlight -data mining

https://www.icij.org/investigations/fincen-files/mining-sars-data/

ICIJ’s analysis found that in half of the reports, banks didn’t have information about one or more entities behind the transactions. In more than 680 reports in the FinCEN Files, financial institutions asked for more information about entities and on more than 160 occasions other banks didn’t respond. Some banks or branches in countries such as Switzerland cited local secrecy laws in their jurisdictions to deny the information.

An ICIJ analysis also found that banks in the FinCEN Files regularly processed transactions for companies registered in so-called secrecy jurisdictions and did so without knowing the ultimate owner of the account. In more than 620 of the reports, banks flagged the use of “high risk” jurisdictions at least once. Corporate account holders often provided addresses in the U.K., the U.S., Cyprus, Hong Kong, the United Arab Emirates, Russia and Switzerland. At least 20% of the reports contained a client with an address in one of the world’s top offshore financial havens, the British Virgin Islands.

https://www.taxfairness.ca/en/campaign/end-snow-washing

#112 thebarold on 03.10.22 at 8:54 am

Reports of a slowdown are probably localized. A house we looked at over the weekend in our neighbourhood just sold, for 10% higher than recent comp sales. So… the market (real estate as well as financial) is not uniform. Bank stocks still up 30% yoy but VXC? Back to where we were about a year ago.

#113 TurnerNation on 03.10.22 at 9:02 am

This is really simple guys. The global plan rolled our everywhere, kicked off March 2020, with NO Sign of end.

– Control over our travel/movement. Besides the obvious QR codes and Virtual Berlin Walls. You are free to leave at at time guys, no really!

– High gas prices limiting movement. Least Coast – hey they can utilize all those electric car charging stations. You know, all those stations?. All of them!
“For the first time in history, the price of gas in most parts of the province [NFLD] has surpassed the $2.00 a litre mark.”

– Control over supply of used cars (prices skyrocket), and limiting production of new cars.
Let’s look at some amazing events – which help decimate new car production.

2021 semi conductor plant fire:
https://www.reuters.com/technology/renesas-restore-fire-hit-chip-plant-100-capacity-around-mid-june-2021-06-01/

2022 semi conductor plant fire (wink wink):
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-01-07/asml-s-factory-fire-damaged-production-of-key-chip-machines

2022 invasion of region with key semi conductor supply chain associations. What a coincidence.

“Ukraine supplies 90% of U.S. semiconductor-grade neon (and what it means to chip supply chain)”
https://venturebeat.com/2022/02/24/ukraine-supplies-90-percent-of-us-semiconductor-grade-neon-what-it-means-to-chip-supply-chain/



Control over feeding. Need I mention even the spike in food prices and also via record high input costs of food production & transport? Fuel, fertilizer. The latest step in this global WW3 – in Russia/Ukraine is fueling all this. What a coincidence.



For Dolce and the Data Mongers:

Ontario reveals deaths caused by COVID much lower than previously reported
https://torontosun.com/opinion/columnists/furey-ontario-reveals-deaths-caused-by-covid-much-lower-than-previously-reported

#114 Observer on 03.10.22 at 9:26 am

#106 More Lard on 03.09.22 at 11:45 pm
DELETED (Ridiculing public figures by distorting their names is childish and will not be tolerated.)

HE doesn’t have the respect of the Canadian people and HE deserves all the ridicule we can give him. The world mocks HIM too.

^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^

I think you must be confusing HIM with the orange blob. And/or you are jealous he is much better looking and successful than you are.

#115 IHCTD9 on 03.10.22 at 9:29 am

#68 dragonfly58 on 03.09.22 at 6:51 pm
So Garth, or anyone civil for that matter. What is a reasonable, financial , survival strategy for the misses and I.
____

Do one major home repair per year. Keeps things stress free and manageable, spreads costs out.

Look into a pole barn for a shop. You may be able to get a decent price on timbers from a local saw mill as they usually mill local wood so are not subject to the turmoil of international markets. You also don’t need to dig and put in footings and foundation walls. Just piles under the posts. Consult YouTube “Pole Barn”. You can put the concrete floor in later if you want to spread the cost out. Lots of savings to be had with a self built pole barn.

Sell stuff you don’t want/need. Liquidate some lifestyle inflation and downsize, bank the proceeds.

I am working on this right now. Selling the quads, tandem axle, 2 dozers, and some misc. equipment. I’m downsizing from a big 2500HD to a regular old work truck. Proceeds will be about 30K cash, and a fuel bill that is cut in half. Doing this stuff is actually fun. How low can you go! :)

Try fishing, sketching, a daily exercise routine, making your own hooch and beer, weight-lifting, baking pies, collecting and processing fuel wood, buy a broken lawn tractor, fix it up like new, and sell it. Scour the flea markets and yard sales for a 100+ year old chair and restore it. Maybe you’ll find an old neglected Art Nouveau piece sitting in a corner that no one understands what it is! Build a gasifier and try to get an engine up and running on wood. Buy a cheap electric guitar and soup it up. Metal detecting historical sites and beaches. Build a small wooden boat.

Tons of fun gratifying stuff for nearly free, and a few that pay you back on top.

#116 Baxter on 03.10.22 at 9:29 am

Look at the graph of the M1 money supply. Truly shocking.

#117 Don Guillermo on 03.10.22 at 9:42 am

109 Dharma Bum on 03.10.22 at 7:34 am

The absence of hipsters, wokesters, covidiots, treehuggers, climate emergency lunatics, virtue signallers, Trudeau lovers, pseudo-feminists, genderbenders, lefties, flag stealers, commies, pinkos, metrosexuals, dippers, and man buns makes it my happy place.
***************
Actually all of these live in urban Calgary, Edmonton and most other smaller communities. We can coexist just fine as long as they don’t sneak another NDP government in.

#118 Satori on 03.10.22 at 9:53 am

#6 ElGatoNeroYVR on 03.09.22 at 3:28 pm
I only have one question :Does anybody believe that prices (except real estate and gasoline) will actually come down ,ya know groceries ,consumer products ,rent , hotels , travel …
———————————————–
Likely not, people are probably going to travel even less with these gas prices. I am sure a lot of air bnb will come up for long term rent.

Groceries, maybe a bit, but not for a while. Dollarama will likely be twoonierama.

Realestate prices will and gas will come down.

During the pandemic, gas demand was down, so they produced less, then this war came up and now they trying to keep up because they didn’t keep alot on ‘reserve’ so I think it has been a double, tripe whammy.

A friend of mine is in shock because this week they had no multiple offers at the brokerage she works for. All her colleagues can’t believe it… first week in a while that they only got one offer, and all the staff is Gob-Smacked! Might be a sign of things to come…

#119 Linda on 03.10.22 at 10:07 am

#26 ‘Blobby’ – in Alberta, Kenney has announced a plan to cease collecting the 0.13 cent per liter provincial gas tax as long as oil remains above $90 per barrel. Said policy to be reviewed every 3 months. However that policy in no way requires the gas providers to pass on that 13 cent tax break to their customers. So Kenney gives up revenue – revenue that belongs to all Albertans – & effectively ‘gifts’ it to gas producers. Yes, some of the producers may pass on that drop in price, but most won’t because Business is all about making money. Not funding the lifestyle of those who purchase their product. The responsibility of business is to make a profit which is then used to 1) fund the business interests & 2) provide a ROI to their investors/owners.

#120 Sail Away on 03.10.22 at 10:24 am

#69 Blobby on 03.09.22 at 6:53 pm
@#44 Sail Away :

Ah, I see, you get your information from facebook, youtube and tucker carlson and are being played like a fiddle.

———-

?????

Healthy skepticism applies across the board. Verify everything, especially the most deliciously salacious, because once you repeat it, your own integrity is on the line.

Here’s Charlie Munger on ‘The Work Required To Have an Opinion:

https://fs.blog/the-work-required-to-have-an-opinion/#:~:text=%E2%80%94%20Charlie%20Munger,people%20and%20understand%20their%20arguments.

#121 Ponzius Pilatus on 03.10.22 at 11:01 am

105 Yukon Elvis on 03.09.22 at 11:37 pm
#90 Ponzius Pilatus on 03.09.22 at 9:11 pm

Easy to grasp for simple people.
Wake me up when the”War” is over.
+++++++++++++++++
You get nice and comfy there. Have a nice nap. I will get a pillow.
————————
Coincidence?
Just got me one of those memory pillows.
It remembers me.
Says: Good Night, Ponzi.
I sleep like a baby.
Got it on sale at Costco.
Reminder: Gotta buy more Costco Shares.

#122 Ponzius Pilatus on 03.10.22 at 11:12 am

I had 5 Amazon shares.
Woke up this morning, after a wonderful sleep with my new pillow.
And noticed , I had 100 Amazon shares.
The magic of share splitting.
Now as a major shareholder, I’m expecting an invitation from Oligarch Bezos to visit him on his new yacht.
And then into space next.

#123 Elmer Fudd on 03.10.22 at 11:17 am

Cwazy mawkets. Gween yestewday, wed today.

#124 dragonfly58 on 03.10.22 at 11:19 am

Hi IHC, already doing some of that. Pole barns don’t meet code around here. Also quite a bit more difficult to insulate and heat. Very moist environment in the Lower Mainland.
I have been selling off to some extent. Quite a bit of excess vintage car and motorcycle stuff. Locals don’t have space or $, lots of interest from outside the area , but once shipping is factored in the deal often crumbles. One steady customer in New Zealand, he likes the same stuff as I do and has a very successful business.
Can’t give cheap guitars away around here, but good ones cost double anywhere else. I own a 82 Strat and a 89 LP , they aren’t going anywhere.
My life is my 1960 MGA , owned since 1978, and my 1974 TVR, owned since the 80’s. Both need work. Also a big early car, real early. basket case. Very space and equipment intensive. I have been buying machine tools , very good lathe , old but very high quality mill, for the last 30 years. Small double garage is packed to the gills waiting for the real shop to be built. I am not going to become a birdwatcher or beach bum after almost 50 years of complete immersion in all things mechanical.
Something that will eventually go is my early 70’s Lola, open wheel race car , but only when I am too old to race it. Just airport auto x , real wheel to wheel racing has gone out of my reach.

#125 Ponzius Pilatus on 03.10.22 at 11:26 am

#117 Don Guillermo on 03.10.22 at 9:42 am
109 Dharma Bum on 03.10.22 at 7:34 am

The absence of hipsters, wokesters, covidiots, treehuggers, climate emergency lunatics, virtue signallers, Trudeau lovers, pseudo-feminists, genderbenders, lefties, flag stealers, commies, pinkos, metrosexuals, dippers, and man buns makes it my happy place.
***************
Actually all of these live in urban Calgary, Edmonton and most other smaller communities. We can coexist just fine as long as they don’t sneak another NDP government in.
————————-
You guys should know, Socialism spreads like wildfire.
It’s ragging now in Calgary.
No safe place to return for you Donnie Boy.
Well, could be worse.
In the 3rd largest City in Austria (Graz) they now have a Communist mayor.
It’s Arnie’s hometown.
He’s probably not happy about that.

#126 Cowtown Cowboy on 03.10.22 at 11:27 am

#85 CJohnC on 03.09.22 at 8:54 pm
While watching video of refugees leaving Ukraine, I find it disgusting the number of young men leaving to try and get sanctuary. These are the super soft young millennial and younger “social media” generations. They should man up and defend their country.

They are like the anti mask, anti vaccine trucker convoy group with their lack of self-esteem or will power.

Living in a world where the weak would rather guilt the strong than become strong themselves

—————————————————————-

Yeah, I think you got that backwards bud..

#127 dragonfly58 on 03.10.22 at 11:30 am

It’s all been paid for by a lifetime of frugality. Brown bagging lunch, cheap beater cars, doing 99.9 % of home and auto repairs myself. Thrift store shopping, estate sales and swap meets for tools, vintage car parts etc. Sleeping in the truck at swap meets unlike 90% of the others who have a hotel room. Traveling with friends to the meets to split up gas costs etc. Learning every aspect of restoration, it also helped I worked at a high end restoration shop for a few years back in my 20’s. In short pinching every penny to make a hobby that many view as pretty expensive fit my income.

#128 Yukon Elvis on 03.10.22 at 11:39 am

Sergei Lavrov says Russia ‘DIDN’T attack Ukraine’, dismisses ‘pathetic outcry’ over maternity hospital bombing and admits the building WAS deliberately targeted – after peace talks collapse in Turkey.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10597929/Sergei-Lavrov-says-Russia-DIDNT-attack-Ukraine-dismisses-pathetic-outcry-hospital.html

#129 Don Guillermo on 03.10.22 at 11:51 am

#117 Don Guillermo on 03.10.22 at 9:42 am
109 Dharma Bum on 03.10.22 at 7:34 am

The absence of hipsters, wokesters, covidiots, treehuggers, climate emergency lunatics, virtue signallers, Trudeau lovers, pseudo-feminists, genderbenders, lefties, flag stealers, commies, pinkos, metrosexuals, dippers, and man buns makes it my happy place.
***************
Actually all of these live in urban Calgary, Edmonton and most other smaller communities. We can coexist just fine as long as they don’t sneak another NDP government in.

*******************
See Dharma Bum – there’s one now.

#119 Linda on 03.10.22 at 10:07 am
#26 ‘Blobby’
– in Alberta, Kenney has announced … blah,blah blah

#130 WTF on 03.10.22 at 12:02 pm

#117 “Actually all of these live in urban Calgary, Edmonton and most other smaller communities. We can coexist just fine as long as they don’t sneak another NDP government in.”
—————————————————————
Not to worry. If Kenny gets out and locks up the rube vote, winner!

#131 Shawn on 03.10.22 at 12:03 pm

Why is Carbon Tax on Natural Gas much higher than gasoline?

Engineering question

Federal carbon tax on gasoline in provinces where it applies is currently 8.8 cents per liter. If Gas were back to $1.30 that would be 6.8% of the total cost (a bit more with GST / HST but still under 10%. At $1.75 gas it’s well under 10% of the cost.

Federal Carbon tax on Natural gas is $2.10 per GJ. On my last three bills the carbon tax was 15% to 17% of the total bill including delivery and taxes.

Why is the carbon tax a significantly higher percent of the bill for natural gas versus gasoline? Does natural gas emit more carbon per unit of energy than gasoline?

Is it simply because the natural gas commodity is cheap? But delivery and fixed fees on natural gas are high which should push carbon tax down as a percent of the bill.

I worked in the utility industry and have never seen an explanation for why the carbon tax is a far higher percent of the bill on natural gas versus gasoline. Actually I have never even seen it questioned.

Anyone know?

#132 Sail Away on 03.10.22 at 12:07 pm

#121 Ponzius Pilatus on 03.10.22 at 11:01 am

Just got me one of those memory pillows.
It remembers me.
Says: Good Night, Ponzi.
I sleep like a baby.
Got it on sale at Costco.
Reminder: Gotta buy more Costco Shares.

——–

Agreed, Costco is a great company. I’ve held it for 8 years and stock up (as with all long-term holdings) at dips of 10% or better- last dip was in Jan 2022; previous to that Feb 2021.

It’s not in a dip now, so keep buying your pillows and I’ll wait for the next sale.

#133 Damifino on 03.10.22 at 12:07 pm

Sad. Joe Biden, pathetic old fool, simply amazes me. He cancelled an important half-completed international pipeline on his first day in office.

Today, he makes laughable overtures to the likes of Venezuela and Saudi Arabia to bail the USA out of their self-created energy shortages, meanwhile ignoring Canada, the solid northern ally that happens to be rich in the hydrocarbons he seeks.

Joe will probably be around about three more years but after the mid terms he’ll become “officially” useless in addition to being operationally so.

#134 Shawn on 03.10.22 at 12:15 pm

Linda’s stunning lack of business knowledge

#119 Linda on 03.10.22 at 10:07 am

#26 ‘Blobby’ – in Alberta, Kenney has announced a plan to cease collecting the 0.13 cent per liter provincial gas tax as long as oil remains above $90 per barrel. Said policy to be reviewed every 3 months. However that policy in no way requires the gas providers to pass on that 13 cent tax break to their customers. So Kenney gives up revenue – revenue that belongs to all Albertans – & effectively ‘gifts’ it to gas producers. Yes, some of the producers may pass on that drop in price, but most won’t because Business is all about making money. Not funding the lifestyle of those who purchase their product. The responsibility of business is to make a profit which is then used to 1) fund the business interests & 2) provide a ROI to their investors/owners.

***********************
OMG, how can you think gasoline retailers don’t face competition? They display the price on huge signs. People can go to the cheaper station every time. They will drive 10km to save 5 cents per litre every time.

How do you explain how gas got so cheap in 2020?

Sadly, your lack of knowledge is shared by maybe 80% of the population.

You all want full on government regulation of everything?

The majority of the population has about zero trust in government and about zero trust in the capitalist system. But so may still want government to look after them. Most people think profit is a dirty word. It’s scary.

Where is John Galt? OMG

#135 Yukon Elvis on 03.10.22 at 12:25 pm

The Kyiv [email protected]·22m⚡️

Russian propaganda’s latest invention: Ukraine is “developing biological weapons” and using birds to deliver viruses.
Russian state media actually claimed, without any evidence, that the birds were intercepted in Russia’s western regions.

#136 Don Guillermo on 03.10.22 at 12:42 pm

#134 Shawn on 03.10.22 at 12:15 pm
Linda’s stunning lack of business knowledge

#119 Linda on 03.10.22 at 10:07 am

***********************
OMG, how can you think gasoline retailers don’t face competition? They display the price on huge signs. People can go to the cheaper station every time. They will drive 10km to save 5 cents per litre every time.

How do you explain how gas got so cheap in 2020?

Sadly, your lack of knowledge is shared by maybe 80% of the population.

You all want full on government regulation of everything?

The majority of the population has about zero trust in government and about zero trust in the capitalist system. But so may still want government to look after them. Most people think profit is a dirty word. It’s scary.
*************************************
#125 Ponzius Pilatus on 03.10.22 at 11:26 am

You guys should know, Socialism spreads like wildfire
**********************************

Sadly, even Ponzie has that right.

#137 Philco on 03.10.22 at 12:42 pm

#114 Observer on 03.10.22 at 9:26 am
#106 More Lard on 03.09.22 at 11:45 pm
DELETED (Ridiculing public figures by distorting their names is childish and will not be tolerated.)

HE doesn’t have the respect of the Canadian people and HE deserves all the ridicule we can give him. The world mocks HIM too.

^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^
I think you must be confusing HIM with the orange blob. And/or you are jealous he is much better looking and successful than you are.
=========================
He’s successful? He’s accomplished nothing, his name and trust funds are propelling him. He’s learn as you go on the job RIGHT NOW.
And the Orange blob?
Your definition of success is what!?!
I think you have have success and failure confused. LOL

#138 IHCTD9 on 03.10.22 at 12:52 pm

#124 dragonfly58 on 03.10.22 at 11:19 am
___

Too bad about the pole barn rules out your way. They are the go-to cheap and easy shop out here. Anything else you do requires a giant hole and a full foundation.

I was a car guy, started selling off in ’07, and am pretty much done. Glad to be rid of it all. I seem to have turned a corner where I want to totally clean house and start along a more simple path. 1 dozer, maybe a boat, maybe a SXS. No junk, all top quality, but not too much of it.

That Lola is a cool machine, can’t be too many of those around! Good luck with your shop build.

#139 Mattl on 03.10.22 at 1:30 pm

Like the economy. It grew at almost 7% annualized in the final, Omicron-addled quarter of 2021. That’s outstanding

——————————————————–

Being driven heavily by RE and associated. Is the economy really in good shape? If housing is a mess, and housing is driving the economy, follows that the economy is a mess.

#140 dragonfly58 on 03.10.22 at 1:46 pm

If I was further away from the Lower Mainland a pole barn is a cheap solution. But really only for storage. They are a very compromised shop substitute. And far too easy to catch fire when welding , grinding. An insulated steel building on a concrete pad is #1 , but getting more expensive by the week. No real need to own a dozer, the rare time I need one a good friend owns one.
Too old for off road stuff. Lots of dirt bikes in my past , but 1/2 a life time ago.
The Lola is just a beater compared to most you will see on the web. It had a semi serious track crash before my ownership. I rebuilt the frame { all nickel bronze brazed square and rectangular, thin wall tubing. } and kitted it out with similar to but cheaper than Lola’s track suspension and power. EG a stock VW Beetle gearbox rather than the Beatle based , but full of expensive Hewland racing racing gears like everyone on the track uses. It worked out to be less than 1/3 of the cost of bringing it back to class legal , Formula Ford racing trim. Before I sell it I will bring it back to ” real ” race trim. Like everything else, Vintage Racing Formula Fords just keep going up.
Only perhaps a dozen Lola Formula Fords in Canada. But most that Lola produced were sold in the U.S. so North America wide actually reasonably common.

#141 Linda on 03.10.22 at 4:32 pm

#134 ‘Shawn’ – gas ‘got so cheap’ in 2020 because at one point oil futures actually went negative. Plus of course the steep decline in passenger trips of all sorts (Covid lockdown, remember?) meant retailers were looking to offload product for whatever they could get for it. Where have you been these past couple of years? Did you somehow miss the drop in commuters, the lack of ridership on public transit, the closure of businesses everywhere? Unless your job was doing home delivery chances are your gas consumption went down considerably.

I stand by my belief that companies will keep some or all the money from any tax rebate. The fluctuation in prices means that they can still offer consumers a ‘deal’ by reducing the price by one or two cents while pocketing the rest.