Charity

The Metro supermarket in DT Toronto is an eclectic place. Most customers are on foot. Everyone has a wee buggy. The lineups to pay are random, not self-disciplined as in the burbs. Many people shop day by day, so space around checkouts is tight. It’s cacophonous, a kaleidoscope of races, incomes and cultures. Above the store are condos which fetch $1.3 million. Across the street, past the liquor store with the begging cowboy guitar guy in front, are low-income housing co-ops.

It works. And this day the clerks were asking for a $2 donation, “for the Ukrainian people.” Sure thing. Everybody agreed.

So war continues to whipsaw markets. Oil touched $130 a barrel as allies turned off the Russian taps. Nickel went nuclear. Gold spiked. Commodities, the Vix and bond yields also went higher. Stocks are flopping from one headline to the next. On Wednesday the bulls and bargain-hunters won for a while.

There are three things worth remembering. First, wars (like pandemics) end. The sharp moves will pass. If you have a reasonable portfolio, do nothing. Second, Give thanks you live here. Canadian freedom and peace. Third, realize the real impact of Russian caprice will not be on liquid assets, but the one your mom thinks is immune.

There are two outcomes of the war for real estate that are worth pondering. Either inflation-spurred rates choke off credit and hurt the market or a recession threatens the same. Either way, the parabolic jump in prices detailed here yesterday comes to an end. (And I didn’t even mention what the feds plan to do to RE investors.)

The economists at BMO warn inflation is the greater threat because it means mortgage costs will keep rising. “The Bank of Canada doesn’t see the war as an obstacle to tightening, as it pulled the trigger, and it plans to hold tight to the normalization path for the year,” the bank says.

By further snarling global supply chains and sending many commodity prices to multi-year highs (oil and wheat at 13-year peaks and aluminum at all-time highs), the war is an unwelcome guest at the inflation table. The Governor isn’t ruling out the possibility of launching a 50-bp missile if needed.

As yesterday’s post demonstrated, logic has been replaced by emotion. Buyers are making decisions based on their pants, not their brains. A 56% jump in GTA values in six months is not only insane, it’s unsustainable. If higher rates do not cool it off, then we’ll be living through another 1992 (Google it).

Say the bankers…

The Bank of Canada’s quarter-point move is a helpful first step that should begin shifting the market’s psychology away from FOMO. But it also recalls several well-worn clichés, including: too little, too late; and tossing peanuts at an elephant. It likely won’t take many peanuts, however, to slow demand in the more expensive regions of the country given strained affordability even at current low rates. Investors, now the fastest growing share of buyers, will be the first to back off. Many potential buyers will have little choice but to rent as ownership becomes an ever-distant dream.

But as this pathetic blog has oft said, there’s no shame in renting. In fact, there’s wisdom. Leasing costs are far less than ownership overhead. Tenants escape debt. They don’t pay rapacious land transfer taxes to buy or inflated commissions to sell. No maintenance, condo fees, big insurance premiums, property taxes or raccoons. People who rent have more cash flow and the smart ones invest that to build future wealth (and pay their rent) while owners take giant loans borrowed from the future.

But, the homeless and house-horny Millennials cry, isn’t getting some real estate a guaranteed path to unbridled net worth? Is there risk in not getting in now? At any price?

Here is the answer.

  • The only people now making unearned, obscene profits from inflated residential real estate are the sellers. Not the buyers.
  • Purchasers take 100% of the risk. With leverage, it’s that much greater.
  • Owners not selling leave a never-again, untaxed profit on the table.

Folks in Ukraine learned life changes fast. We’re not immune. Choose wisely.

About the picture: “Twelve and a half years ago Baxter came into my life as an eight week old kitten by way of my mother and my niece,” writes Heather. “I was caregiver to my mother at the time and she wanted a kitten and since my niece, Tamara, had ten (two mother cats with five kittens each), lucky us, she could readily supply us with whatever number we wanted. He wiggled his furry little personality into our hearts and there he has stayed.   He is my delight every single day.”

169 comments ↓

#1 CanadianOne on 03.08.22 at 3:03 pm

Good Afternoon Garth,

Any thoughts on Alberta Oil making a return to the table? Specifically pipelines.

I see Canadian wheat, fertilizer, etc. also on the list. Would appreciate your thoughts.

#2 gfd on 03.08.22 at 3:06 pm

This is worth listening to.
https://youtu.be/JrMiSQAGOS4

#3 HUNGRY BEAR on 03.08.22 at 3:09 pm

They can raise interests rates all they want.

The money printing and asset purchasing from the FED keeps churning.

The war is icing on the cake…. QE to INFINITY!

#4 Shawn on 03.08.22 at 3:10 pm

Charity?

I made a donation to a Ukraine relief effort recommended by some Ukrainian friends.

Here’s where they said to give:

https://www.cobblestonefreewayfoundation.ca/support-ukraine-fund

How about some of the regulars here make a donation? Every dollar helps.

#5 Mr Fox on 03.08.22 at 3:13 pm

Yesterday reading the comments I saw somebody writing staying on the sidelines while the war is over. You answered that the time when the stocks rebound is extremely valuable and losing it is affecting the portfolio.
I totally agree, you can never know when the war will be over and when you find out about it, the stocks are already trading higher.

My current strategy is investing a little every month. I’ve build myself an app that helps me rebalance my portfolio (connects to questrade, gets the current prices + the equities in my account + the available cash and tells me what to buy/sell). Adding to that account every month or two months, helps me rebalance without selling.

However, I wonder…. What should the people who have a very short time horizon do?
For example, I have a friend who just got his options vested and wants to buy (surprise surprise) a house in summer. Should he invest? Should he stay put? Or mabe going with a “low risk” portfolio instead of a balanced one?
Generally speaking.. what should the minimum time horizon be for a balanced portfolio?

#6 Dogman01 on 03.08.22 at 3:14 pm

Some interest information and opinion regarding the Ukraine Invasion, Our MSM has gone full on propaganda mode, as bad as RT.

Some good detail and analysis of military moves:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FDKH_FxFdrw

A bit more insightful than the war hawks in the US;
https://ericmargolis.com/2022/03/playing-with-fire-in-ukraine/

Russia is nuclear armed, an escalation is an existential threat. Russia has been clearly communicating for over a decade that they will not accept Ukraine in NATO, either the West’s Analysis\Intelligence was incompetent or they wanted Russia to “pull the trigger”.

“The western powers need to abate their righteous jeremiads against Russia and work to find a face-saving way for Russia out of this dangerous morass. “

#7 ElGatoNeroYVR on 03.08.22 at 3:17 pm

While in theory I agree with your reasoning I would like to bring up a couple points that are not necesarilly obvious:
Owners that don’t plan to downsize,relocate or move into the sunset will not sell so the so called profit is irelevant.If you plan to live in it assement value is irrelevant so why sell when all similar properties would cost the same.
Renting sounds good untill you go and actually look for a rental and get the double whammy of insane rents and crummy quality.
Maybe it is different in the GTA ,but here in the LM the decent rentals are sparse and prices are insane so renting is not really a good option if you owned your own place before.
I can think of zero people who would willingly and planned sell their SFH to rent a condo or a basement suite.
Let’s not forget that once the travel reopens a lot of renters in decent places will get kicked out so the owner can AirBnB it .I don’t see the local govt. really dealing with that scourge.
Inflation is here to stay and that must factor into RE planning.
Most people should always buy the house they can afford ( nowadays 50% of net is a good number for total carying costs IMHO) ,especially when the rental situation is where it is currently.
I am quite sure we will soon see the 50 years mortgages being pushed as the affordable way ,followed by 75 and 90 (with a rebuild provision ofcourse as today’s construction will notnlast past 50 ).
For those that are not aware land makes up for the vast majority of a newly built house cost ,look at the asements in your area.
Last property I looked up had land at 1mil and the building at 500k ,here in the suburbs of LM .

#8 Flop… on 03.08.22 at 3:17 pm

#206 IHCTD9 on 03.08.22 at 2:53 pm
#203 Quintilian on 03.08.22 at 1:57 pm
#191 IHCTD9 on 03.08.22 at 1:03 pm

“Two of our stainless steel suppliers are refusing to quote until further notice.”

My GF says she can get stainless steel quote but valid for only 72 hrs.

///////////////

72hrs solid steel?

Aren’t you supposed to call a doctor if the Viagra lasted longer than four hours…

M47BC

#9 Shawn on 03.08.22 at 3:24 pm

Shameful Corporate Tax Example

Shopify was recently Canada’s most valuable company. Now it’s down a lot but still huge with a value of $108 billion.

In 2021 it reported a net income of $2.9 billion U.S. dollars.

For accounting purposes it reported an income tax expense of $226 million. That’s an accounting tax rate of a low 7%!! But $191 million of that was deferred and only $35 million was paid as current (cash) income tax. That’s a cash tax rate of just over 1%!!!

Of the $35 million cash tax paid a grand total of $2 million was paid in Canada. That’s a tax rate of about 0% for Canada. (Actually $1.8 million but it was U.S funds so there is that) See page 141 of 192 of their annual report, note 21 to financial statements.

Cue the excuses like they made most of the money in the U.S. but I think this shows that there is room for higher corporate taxes in Canada and a crack-down on legal corporate tax avoidance.

Shopify still provides a big benefit to Canada but they could pay a lot more corporate tax. Why should the likes of Garth and Turner Investments pay so much and them so little?

#10 Overheardyou on 03.08.22 at 3:25 pm

Perhaps because the war is so distant, people in our great nation does not think it will have and consequences here. If you don’t watch the news and live in the burbs there’s no signs a war is even going on

#11 crowdedelevatorfartz on 03.08.22 at 3:29 pm

@IHCTD9

“It’s going to get ugly, nickel quadrupled in 1 week”

+++

Damn!
Just when I thought no one would ever want to live in Sudbury ever again……

#12 Philco on 03.08.22 at 3:39 pm

Love the kitty action!

Just called my steal building supplier for a updated quote on 2 storage buildings. Says the heavy steel is up 100% in 12 months. PUKE
Just waiting for my quote on the mine as they are lighter design. Jesus praying for 30%…idiot…should have pulled the trigger last year :-(
=====================
#201 bdwy on 03.08.22 at 1:55 pm
#184 Philco on 03.08.22 at 12:33 pm
PS looks like Oils done for now…with its parabolic move
……
ahem…may want to rethink that

don’t mistake a whiff of fed hopium (quick start to an engine!) for the quickly disappearing whipsaw stonk pop when the real news of russia slamming pipes shut.
150 oil coming.
========================
Likely but just way over bought technically. Gold too.
I’m still sitting on my $330 oz gold hoard. Might have to sell to cover my extra building costs! CRAZY stuff!

#13 Warren-the-lagging_indicator on 03.08.22 at 3:41 pm

Yes, Virginia, it really is different this time. Rates are going up big time.

#14 Francis on 03.08.22 at 3:47 pm

DELETED (Anti-vax)

#15 the jaguar on 03.08.22 at 3:53 pm

Baxter baby. Sometimes known as ‘old blue eyes’.
Damn right it is the year of the Tiger.

#16 Changes on 03.08.22 at 3:56 pm

War is an extension of politics.

The decisions you see emerging from trade to internet connections to Swift to commodities to energy to currencies to cryptos and more to come are shaping a new world order.

LLLLLlightening quick.

These will NOT be reversed.

The West will not be coming out stronger but more confused, more disarrayed, and more wanting.

#17 Pricedoutmillenial on 03.08.22 at 3:56 pm

There are cost benefits to renting without the overhead. But the landlords have absolute control on what they can do why their place. They can even renovate or enter the building even during a pandemic (happened to me). Renting will be a much better option like in some European countries if an organization like LTB would be inclined to help the renters. But in many cases the system favours the Landlords. Renovictions and other hassles often pushes people towards ownership even though it might not be the right decision for the renter.

#18 Philco on 03.08.22 at 3:59 pm

That’s our BOY.

Europe rolls its eyes at Justin Trudeau
https://nationalpost.com/news/politics/first-reading-europe-rolls-its-eyes-at-justin-trudeau

Embarrassing
He couldn’t even handle some trucker protest. A war!? Go home son. OMG

#19 Søren Angst on 03.08.22 at 4:03 pm

Mr. Market swings today insane.

Should I go up. Should I go down. Can’t make my mind up. What do you think?

To be expected:

INTERNATIONAL WOMEN’S DAY.

Ya Garth, I said that.

Let the bullets fly ladies.

https://www.google.com/webhp?hl=en&ictx=2&sa=X&ved=0ahUKEwiimpHBl7f2AhVVRPEDHYsrA8YQPQgJ

Brindisi. alle donne del mondo!

——————-

Ahh…1992, the good old days.

You are correct the parallels Garth, they are there economically. Same dung. Different pile. After you strip away pandemic and war emotions. Good catch and memory Garth.

It’s going to be a crazy year for sure in every corner of the economy.

Nickel Leveraged ETF sunk like a rock. The Italians did not close the Metals market like the English did today.
https://www.google.com/finance/quote/3NIL:BIT (let ‘er burn Italia)
https://www.google.com/finance/quote/3NIS:LON (now everyone calm down London)

Glad I did not buy any of that high risk.

On Nickel, blame a shorting Chinese producer:
https://twitter.com/SquawkCNBC/status/1501202359879405570

$100K a tonne the result and a closed LME.
https://twitter.com/FinancialTimes/status/1501128121612914691

Welcome to Planet Earth have a nice day, esp. the Women.

#20 willworkforpickles on 03.08.22 at 4:09 pm

Rising inflation will keep up the pace. No question. No argument. Its not going away without drastic measures the Fed won’t take in the near future.
That is …without interest rates being set a few points above the inflation rate to choke it off taking the economy down with it.
Meanwhile, inflation will be taking the economy and the dollar down piece by piece, brick by brick and leave the dollar at maybe a tenth of its current value.

Some hedge real estate is now facing one or the other or eventually both of the only economic scenario’s left coming. (the Government and the Fed has brought us to this inescapable point no question)

Wait for near total dollar devaluation through escalating inflation.
Or wait for high interest rates to crash RE.

The smart money and only the smart money is selling RE now to preserve the current dollars level of worth… (before inflation destroys it) then by channelling those RE winnings into a real inflation hedge not bound to the dollar as RE is, sitting on a street here in the land of the dollar bound to a coming future of devalued dollars.

Then in the years to come, the smart money (smarties) can take those inflation hedge protected winnings, channelled from the smart sale cash of RE today and buy RE literally for pennies on the dollar of tomorrows unprotected devalued dollars/dollar bound RE, with today’s channelled, hedged and much much higher value protected funds.

Those buying but mostly holding overpriced RE now will sink in the mire. They don’t get it. They don’t get the picture.

#21 Richard L on 03.08.22 at 4:11 pm

These posts are where you are at your best Garth.

#22 Honest Realtor on 03.08.22 at 4:13 pm

2 million have already fled Ukraine. Probably another 5-10 will follow soon.

Let’s join together as Canadians to welcome at least 1,000,000 Ukrainians here.

#23 Daveyboy on 03.08.22 at 4:20 pm

I love renting, however I do own a home. My rental property in Northwest Arkansas creates enough income to cover 75 percent of my rent in Portland Oregon. The Portland home that I rent, cost twice as much as my Arkansas home. The remaining amount of rent is covered by my dividends. Because of this, my wife is able to max out a 401k 457k and an HSA account and I stay at home with the kids!

#24 willworkforpickles on 03.08.22 at 4:24 pm

To add to my last post , pull out all the stops now if you have cash to hedge it from the dollar and protect it against inflation eating it away. And Don’t buy RE now even if you have the cash. Wait. With all that hedged cash clear of the dollar, you will be able to buy RE for a fraction of what its worth today with your value protected wealth, while those holding dollars and RE now go down with the sinking ship.

#25 Capt. Serious on 03.08.22 at 4:27 pm

re: renting, also no renovation costs. Live in a house long enough or that is old enough and sooner or later you will be renovating.

#26 Mtl (very) Long Time Reader on 03.08.22 at 4:27 pm

Hi Garth,
I thought I would share with you what 2M$ will buy you in Montreal, in the heart of one of the most sought after neighbourhoods: (https://remaxducartier.com/fr/nos-proprietes/montreal-le-plateau-mont-royal/5742-av-de-l-esplanade/21954713). The situation doesn’t seem as bad here as in Toronto or Vancouver, but regular folks are still priced out of their neighbourhoods or the ones who do buy won’t have much money left to enjoy bars and restaurants. A good thing Montreal has a large pool of rental apartments.

Thanks for all your posts throughout the years!

#27 cto on 03.08.22 at 4:29 pm

sell my house? why?
We bought it in 2012 and its more than doubled in value.
It may gain by another 250 Gs before the year is out. Dont really care if it looses 250 Gs either. Its paid for and the best investment i ever have made, much better than financials. i just wish i bought an investment house in 2015.
oh well.
im guessing many who read this blog are in same boat.

It’s worth nothing more than a rental equivalent until you sell. – Garth

#28 willworkforpickles on 03.08.22 at 4:30 pm

Cash is King now only if you hedge it against inflation.

#29 Søren Angst on 03.08.22 at 4:32 pm

I’d like to buy the World a Coke,
Except for Ruh-ussia.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1VM2eLhvsSM

No coke, pepsi.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=puJePACBoIo

No pepsi.
https://twitter.com/the_ins_ru/status/1501307614692577286

And no Beeg MacSki (but cheeburger, cheeburger, cheeburger).
https://twitter.com/BBCWorld/status/1501301909306626061

Or Ferrari and Rolex.
https://www.foxbusiness.com/lifestyle/ferrari-suspends-russia-sales

Italia’s Gucci still in Russia. Come on. Vlad has to look ‘stylin for The Hague.

And US Secretary of Transportation solution to high gas prices.
https://babylonbee.com/news/pete-buttigieg-says-everyone-worried-about-gas-prices-should-just-get-six-figure-government-job-with-free-car-service-and-unlimited-parental-leave

https://babylonbee.com/news/us-to-begin-importing-oil-from-gavin-newsoms-hair

#30 IHCTD9 on 03.08.22 at 4:33 pm

Baxter has awesome eyes!

#31 I’m stupid on 03.08.22 at 4:39 pm

Every home I’ve done in the last 6 months has a separate basement entrance. Everyone assumes there’s a never ending supply of basement renters.

Meanwhile my gas bill for 1 truck is $400 a week at $1.80/L This will not end well.

#32 willworkforpickles on 03.08.22 at 4:41 pm

Greater Fool – Authored by Garth Turner – The Troubled Future of Real Estate

Believe it !

#33 TurnerNation on 03.08.22 at 4:42 pm

This WW3 is about LAND. Do you see it yet?
Put it this way – can you afford to by any land where you live? How about a house with a garden? Or farmland. Probably not. You have been kicked off your land by the invading forces.

Who/what are they? Silent Weapons in this WW3. The propaganda war was kicked off in March 2020.
Forced layoffs for the “non essential” people. Small business ordered closed.
Market crash. Now we get Inflation, commodity prices, interest rate hikes. Quiet moves.
All to keep us safe from a virus!

Do you recall 2020? You were kicked off the land. Provincial and National parks, soccer fields, children’s playgrounds, park benches and more. Blocked off with yellow tape. A dry run for kicking you OFF the land.


— 2020 was the training period didn’t I say. In the Great Reset when you are “Non Essential” you are expendable. It has been normalized. Russia now then?

“Coca-Cola on Tuesday said it was suspending its business in Russia after that country’s invasion of Ukraine, joining McDonald’s, Starbucks and host of other U.S. corporations.
The move will shutter all 850 McDonald’s locations in Russia, which employ 62,000 people. However, the company said it will continue to pay salaries for McDonald’s employees in the country.
Starbucks is suspending all business activity in Russia in response to Putin’s continued aggression in Ukraine, according to CEO Kevin Johnson. (cnbc.ca)”

#34 Senator Bluto on 03.08.22 at 4:45 pm

DELETED

#35 But Who is Paying? on 03.08.22 at 4:46 pm

But I still don’t understand who is paying for these properties at these prices? You gave a great example a few blog posts ago, about how people are getting mortgages (co-signers: parents, brothers, sisters, uncles etc.), BUT who is paying the mortgage day to day? Are all these people actually moving in together? It’s one thing to co-sign to get the financing, but like you pointed out, the carrying costs month-to-month on a 1.6M mortgage is over 8K. With so few people earning in the 250K range, how can the vast majority of people living in Canada pay for that!?

#36 Chameleon on 03.08.22 at 4:48 pm

Back-to-back cats?

What’s next?

Putin is going to fix Ukraine after all those “democratically elected politician’s” three decades of hard work?

#37 Reality Check on 03.08.22 at 4:50 pm

Beware Alberta – high commodity prices can bite you

Looks like we will have high oil prices for some time. If they stay high for more than a year, trust me, eastern Canada (and by this I mean Ontario and Quebec) will jealously eye the extra billions coming into Alberta and Sask coffers and start whining.

After all they will say, oil and gas is a Canadian resource and we are all Canadians, so should benefit from the high prices. Why should we as Canadian have to pay world prices when we have so much oil in Canada, they will exclaim.

The next step would be, reminiscent of Pierre Trudeau, a National Energy Policy, that would strip billions from Albert and send to to Ontario and Quebec (I.e. Liberal voters). The T-1s disastrous National Energy Program of the early 1980s was instituted just when oil prices crested. It took tens of billions out of the Alberta economy and devastated the oil industry. Of course it was rescinded by the federal liberals once market oil prices dropped below the NEP regulated. Remember we are all Canadians and all in this together unless the regulated prices end up hurting Ontario and Quebec consumers (liberal voters).

#38 willworkforpickles on 03.08.22 at 4:54 pm

“The Governor isn’t ruling out the possibility of launching a 50-bp missile if needed.”
…………………………………………………….

Won’t dent inflation the least bit. A .50 will merely bounce off it.

#39 NOSTRADAMUS on 03.08.22 at 4:58 pm

FASTER THAN A BLACKHAWK’S ROTOR BLADES.
As with online gambling the Real Estate offices are elbowing in and becoming crowded. Today, Real Estate offices are much like your neighborhood pizza shops. They are located on every corner. With the lack of inventory and subsequent lack of sales, I suspect a great number of these flag ships will soon be themselves for sale. As you walk by there is the unmistakable scent of desperation in the air as their cash flow has gone (PFFT). With no CERB on the horizon and their friendly banker withdrawing liquidity, and horror of horrors looking for more collateral to backstop their outstanding loan, fear is in the air. With in excess of 50,000 sales agents in the GTA, all twiddling their thumbs, it doesn’t look good. I suspect a great number of these previous high flyers have moved up on the CRA hit list. It’s a bitch when you are dragging back taxes for a couple of years. Before long we will have the pleasure of being entertained with the realtor achievement awards. So many number one’s in every category. Spinning tall tales faster than a Blackhawk’s rotor blades. Sleep tight my little beauties.

#40 The Original Jake on 03.08.22 at 5:01 pm

Looks like covid officially ended with Russian’s invasion. MSM’s covid coverage is a blip on the screen now. After 2 years of incessant case counts, they quickly folded up their tables and jumped on planes to start reporting the war.

#41 West New West on 03.08.22 at 5:02 pm

Baxter….In love

#42 earthboundmisfit on 03.08.22 at 5:03 pm

Leslyn Lewis to run for the PCs. Yessiree …. just what they need …. homophobic, anti-abortion, anti-vaxxer, supporter of the brain-dead trucker temper tantrum. Anyone know if she ever actually set foot in the riding into which she was parachuted … or if she can point to it on a map? Oozing hubris, this one. Hard pass.

#43 Reality Check on 03.08.22 at 5:19 pm

NATO is not a threat to Russian sovereignty

Much is made by the Russia/Putin apologists about the justification of this invasion being Russia’ fear of NATO.

But nobody realistically believes that NATO would ever threaten Russia’s independence/borders. NATO ain’t gonna invade Russia.

What Putin fear from NATO is that it’s a threat to his dreams of recreating the USSR. In providing an alternative model to the Russian “czar” system and providing NATO protection to member states NATO limits Putin’s ability to take over former Soviet countries (as he is trying to do with the Ukraine).

I believe we all owe a big debt to the Ukrainians and their valiant resistant to Putin. If the Ukraine had just rolled over and allowed the Russian invasion, and if the west had of let it happen without consequence as in the Crimean invasion, the next stop for Putin would have been a NATO country – perhaps picking off small states like Estonia or Latvia.

The Ukrainian invasion and the reaction of the Ukraines and the west may have shown Putin that what he is doing is unacceptable and his expansionist ambitions will be defended against. Ultimately this at have averted a future WW3.

#44 Linda on 03.08.22 at 5:30 pm

‘Baxter’ has very lovely blue eyes.

The cries of despair over rising gas prices makes me shake my head. North Americans are used to very low prices for fuel; in Europe as well as South Pacific nations gas prices under $2 per liter are rarer than unicorns & it has been that way for literal decades. Get used to paying more, at least for a while. Meanwhile, thank whatever powers you believe in that you are not having to dodge bullets or missiles as a regular part of your daily life activities.

#45 Neo on 03.08.22 at 5:44 pm

People keep yapping about the rising value of houses. They are wrong. The value of hausing has not gone up. Your standard of living has gone down, a lot. It’s not going to change. This was not an accident. The central banks did not blow it. This is a well orchestrated plan put in place by the traitorous puppet regime you clowns call a government.

#46 crowdedelevatorfartz on 03.08.22 at 5:44 pm

Trudeau gets to play Army….

https://www.ctvnews.ca/politics/trudeau-nato-partners-stage-theatrical-rebuke-of-russia-at-military-base-in-latvia-1.5810140

#47 HonestEnD on 03.08.22 at 6:02 pm

Is the BoC more likely to increase rates faster to tame inflation caused by rapid price of oil? Or will they slow it down because of the war?

Thanks

#48 Barb on 03.08.22 at 6:02 pm

“The Governor isn’t ruling out the possibility of launching a 50-bp missile if needed.”

——————————
How insensitive the BMO economists would stoop to using a phrase containing the word missile.

#49 Midnight’s on 03.08.22 at 6:03 pm

This will lead to a dark place. “You can’t really know where you are going until you know where you have been.”

Library and Archives Canada Purges Website Content It Deems ‘Offensive’

https://tnc.news/2022/03/07/trudeau-appointed-librarian-ordered-purge-of-online-historical-archives/

#50 Drew on 03.08.22 at 6:03 pm

No shame maybe, but renting is a depressing way to live for me. I hate the city, too many neighbours, fees are folded into rent, and I don’t need other people to fix things. Sooner or later the many cons will out weight the tiny pros.

#51 Observer on 03.08.22 at 6:19 pm

#18 Philco on 03.08.22 at 3:59 pm

That’s our BOY [Trudeau].

Embarrassing
He couldn’t even handle some trucker protest. A war!? Go home son. OMG

^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^
Once it was apparent that neither the city of Ottawa, nor Ontario were able to do anything about the Ottawa occupation, “our BOY” stepped in and quickly solved the problem. Looks like he handled it just fine.

#52 I don’t know on 03.08.22 at 6:22 pm

16 Changes on 03.08.22 at 3:56 pm

43 Reality Check is correct. NATO actually looked like it was fraying, with wavering commitments as little as two weeks ago.

That has all changed.

The response of the west to the invasion has been much more coordinated than anyone expected. Military spending allocations will be increasing dramatically, and economies will be better integrated with one another. The west will come out of this stronger, however the world will be (hopefully temporarily) more polarized. We all lose in that regard.

Russia’s economic key has always been in cooperation with europe. Not animosity. This is painfully obvious. The earlier that relationship can be mended, the better. This war is pointless.

IDK

#53 Uncle Thomas on 03.08.22 at 6:34 pm

#42 earthboundmisfit
…. homophobic, anti-abortion, anti-vaxxer, supporter of the brain-dead trucker temper tantrum.
—————————————————
You sound like Trudeau. The usual leftist now standard litany of name calling of people you don’t like. Except you left out racist for some reason.

Candidates like her are why the Cons are headed for permanent opposition status. – Garth

#54 JSquared on 03.08.22 at 6:38 pm

Lowly renter with no debt, and six figures in the bank. Haven’t owned a vehicle in a few years, because I can walk to work, which I love. Gas prices here in the lower mainland in the $2 range. Ouch! Employer is having lots of push back from staff living out in the ‘burbs who absolutely do not want to return to the office.

#55 crowdedelevatorfartz on 03.08.22 at 6:44 pm

@#49 Midnight

A Trudeau appointed, first female national Archivist and Chief Librarian ( $243,000 salary) decides what is offensive and begins “purging” what she deems “offensive”.

https://torontosun.com/news/national/purge-of-offensive-content-in-national-archives-a-guess-to-employees

The Trudeanian Wokesters in full view.
Censorship of national archives.

Where will it end?

#56 B on 03.08.22 at 6:45 pm

#28 willworkforpickles on 03.08.22 at 4:30 pm
Cash is King now only if you hedge it against inflation.

——-

How are you hedging?

#57 Bottoms_Up on 03.08.22 at 6:45 pm

The couple who bought the $300k condo in 2018 now worth $500k are happy to pay $750k for the townhouse.

The family that bought the $500k townhouse in 2018 now worth $750k are happy to pay 1 million for the SFH.

The pandemic and wfh has spurred on the desire for larger homes, more space, more land. I don’t see this changing much any time soon.

Where does it end?

As Garth has noted many times before, cripple your entry level buyers and that cripples the chain.

If people can still afford entry level real estate, this will continue.

#58 PeterfromCalgary on 03.08.22 at 6:46 pm

The worse part of war is people die and are injured. However, the economics of war is not great either. It is very inflationary.

A lot of housing and essential infrastructure is being destroyed. It will all have to be rebuilt either in Ukraine or in the countries people flee to.

God save Ukraine.

#59 Bottoms_Up on 03.08.22 at 6:51 pm

#45 Neo on 03.08.22 at 5:44 pm
‐‐—————————-
This is a great comment because it strikes at the heart of how CPI is calculated. The CPI doesn’t care about your housing standard. This has eroded for 60 years and is negligibly factored into CPI. For example, a new doctor starting a career in the 1970s likely could pick up a nice SFH in a major Canadian city. A new doctor now is lucky to be able to afford a 2-bedroom apartment condo.

#60 Peter in Toronto on 03.08.22 at 6:51 pm

Lmao, still fighting the anti-VAXXers? Give it up, apparently everyone else did.

Russians are the new enemy Garth, did you not get the memo?

#61 Diamond Dog on 03.08.22 at 6:52 pm

https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/lme-suspends-nickel-trading-unprecedented-082125655.html

LME has halted the trade of Nickel due to the world’s largest producer of Nickel, Tsingshan Holding Group Co. caught in a short squeeze.

Tsinghan produced 596 kt’s of Nickel in 2021 with the world’s second largest producer Jiangsu Delong producing 269 kt’s in comparison.

Nickel was trading at $80,000 per ton when the LME halted trading. (nuclear is the right word for Nickel prices)

The third largest Nickel producer in the world is Russia’s Nornickel @ 193 kt’s and is a part of sanctions from the west. What distinguishes Nornickel in the market is that Russia produces 8% of the world Nickel supply but produces 17% of the high grade world Nickel supply, jumping to 40% of the world’s battery grade Nickel supply, largely coming from Nornickel.

So, we may see Nickel trading halted for the rest of the week with an uncertain trading future for a base metal in short supply before western sanctions and a short squeeze leading to LME’s Nickel trading halt.

#62 Dragonslayer on 03.08.22 at 7:00 pm

I know, Garth, you dislike holding gold or precious metals but I’m an old insurance guy and so when building a portfolio see disaster around every corner. Has it cost me some upside? Sure, but it’s times like these that it pays off. Will continue to hold 10% in PM and gold ETF’s with rebalancing when it exceeds that. At the moment it’s keeping the overall portfolio neutral so worth it.

It does you zero good if you do not sell during those brief and rare periods of price appreciation. Otherwise, it’s just rocks. Might as well own gravel. – Garth

#63 Nick on 03.08.22 at 7:01 pm

RE 56% up in 6 months.
50% up next 6 months.
50% up ……

Who needs to work in Kanada. Only foolish people work. Smart ones just buy a home in lower Brainland.

#64 When Will They Raise Rates? on 03.08.22 at 7:08 pm

DELETED (Anti-vax)

#65 Al on 03.08.22 at 7:13 pm

Stagflation is coming like 1970s

#66 Peter in Toronto on 03.08.22 at 7:26 pm

Putin turning the screw for a change, as gas prices and the cost of a barrel of oil skyrockets. EU citizens who are screaming for Russian blood right now will eventually be screaming for a change of government in their respective countries as the cost of living bites, the Western ruling politicians have sealed their own fates.

It seems so emotionally juvenile are the so-called leaders of the West that they DID NOT EVEN CONSULT technical experts at the Federal Reserve and European Central Bank on the decision to seize assets of the Russian central bank and eject Russian banks from SWIFT.

NONE of this was thought though. Let that sink in. There is no captain heading this ship, time to find a fallout shelter.

#67 Philco on 03.08.22 at 7:33 pm

#27 cto on 03.08.22 at 4:29 pm
sell my house? why?
We bought it in 2012 and its more than doubled in value.
It may gain by another 250 Gs before the year is out. Dont really care if it looses 250 Gs either. Its paid for and the best investment i ever have made, much better than financials. i just wish i bought an investment house in 2015.
oh well.
im guessing many who read this blog are in same boat.

It’s worth nothing more than a rental equivalent until you sell. – Garth
=========================

SO? Milk butter and steal has doubled ?
Your not richer you just kept pace with inflation.
Accept the leverage part of it….may have done better.
My opinion….giving a crap how much its worth is a waist of time.
If you can get past that then that’s a start. I don’t sell. I have a fair bit of RE. I manage it and it throws cash at me. Bonus its inflated like a bugger. So what?
Then sell it, then its paper…I find that funny. Then your on watch to make sure some fool don’t burn up your paper.
The wealthy don’t worry about it. They just push forward to the next deal.

#68 Uncle Thomas on 03.08.22 at 7:37 pm

#49 Midnight’s
Library and Archives Canada Purges Website Content It Deems ‘Offensive’
—————————————————————–
It really frightening how George Orwell’s dystopian novel “1984” is playing out in real time:
“Those who control the present, control the past and those who control the past control the future.”

#69 Binder Dundat on 03.08.22 at 7:38 pm

‍Fitch cuts Russia’s rating further into junk, says debt default imminent:

https://www.reuters.com/markets/europe/fitch-cuts-russias-rating-says-debt-default-imminent-2022-03-08On March 16 Russia is due to pay $107 million in coupons across two bonds, though it has a 30-day grace period to make the payments. The next full ‘principal’ repayment is a $359 million 2030 bond on March 31 and then a larger $2 billion maturity on April 4.

Russian gas giant Gazprom has a $1.3 billion dollar bond due for repayment on March 7.

#70 Joe on 03.08.22 at 7:49 pm

cacophonous – involving or producing a harsh, discordant mixture of sounds

#71 ppsez on 03.08.22 at 7:50 pm

As Garth says the home prices are inflated like bubble without any back up. The same goes for current inflation, bubbled & without any steady growth back up. And banks are raising interest rates because of this bubbled inflation. This is going end very very bad.

#72 Trade on 03.08.22 at 7:56 pm

Every trade has 2 parties.

Cancel Russia and you take the same hit yourself.

Who will come out how well?

Russia has little debt, massive resources, survived hell the last 3 decades, and always stood alone fighting off countries for centuries.

The USA has massive debt and is now begging the last man Maduro for oil. The war they are waging will hurt them more.

#73 Neptunian on 03.08.22 at 7:57 pm

So if we all agree that hedging cash against inflation is the way to go, the next question is HOW?

#74 When Will They Raise Rates? on 03.08.22 at 7:59 pm

Trudeau is holding millions of his own people hostage in their own country.

It’s “free”, but you can’t leave. Much like the Soviet Union and East Germany.

Please try to leave. Please. – Garth

#75 Flop… on 03.08.22 at 8:03 pm

Someone wrote the other day that it was business as usual for the multi-national companies in Russia.

“McDonald’s, Coca-Cola, PepsiCo, Starbucks exit Russia.”

There goes my dream of ever going to Russia and walking by McDonald’s and saying I wouldn’t eat that crap.

Well, maybe if I was in a Siberian gulag…

M47BC

#76 Satori on 03.08.22 at 8:11 pm

#50 Drew on 03.08.22 at 6:03 pm
No shame maybe, but renting is a depressing way to live for me.
—————————-
Slavery to a massive mortgage for life, sounds worse. Obviously you failed Math, and… totally missed the point.

Keep reading, maybe one day you will get it.

#77 Sail Away on 03.08.22 at 8:12 pm

#46 crowdedelevatorfartz on 03.08.22 at 5:44 pm

Trudeau gets to play Army….

https://www.ctvnews.ca/politics/trudeau-nato-partners-stage-theatrical-rebuke-of-russia-at-military-base-in-latvia-1.5810140

———

Aladdin again?

#78 PS on 03.08.22 at 8:13 pm

Thoughts on preferred shares? I am curious why Canadian rate reset preferred shares are getting slaughtered while oil prices go up, canadian stocks hold value relative to international, and while there are extreme inflationary pressures that are absolutely SCREAMING for fast and furious interest rate increases?

What is making these preferred shares such an ugly duckling when they should be a total darling in this environment? Are traders expecting interest rate hikes to be deferred until after the war?

Down 5% in the last six months, after a nice gain. Some slaughter. – Garth

#79 Ustabe on 03.08.22 at 8:26 pm

#51 Observer on 03.08.22 at 6:19 pm

#18 Philco on 03.08.22 at 3:59 pm

That’s our BOY [Trudeau].

Embarrassing
He couldn’t even handle some trucker protest. A war!? Go home son. OMG

^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^
Once it was apparent that neither the city of Ottawa, nor Ontario were able to do anything about the Ottawa occupation, “our BOY” stepped in and quickly solved the problem. Looks like he handled it just fine.

My first 35 years were far more “controversial” than this past 35+ years but at some point in those first 35 we found ourselves in Nigeria (I’m pretty certain, long time ago and I inhaled back in the day Might have been Niger tho).

Sitting in a roadside cafe trying to wrangle ourselves a ride up to Morocco to get into Spain, we observed up the road a bit a group of Nigerian trucker tuff guys holding their own little protest. Some sort of roadblock made of tires, a sofa or two, etc, they were extracting a bribe to allow vehicles to proceed.

We got up to leave when the proprietor rushed over and sat us back down. Minutes later a government truck rolled up, out hopped the soldiers, full auto, mowed the protestors/rebels/whatever down, threw the bodies into the truck and drove through the road block, effectively clearing it. Still jerk wide awake from time to time when that scene creeps into my slumbers.

We live in paradise compared to other parts of the world, I wonder sometimes if these modern day sturdy conservative types realize you have to look after the pond as well as the fish within.

#80 Shawn on 03.08.22 at 8:27 pm

Move to Alberta Already!!

West Texas Oil is at $124 U.S. dollars. That’s $160 in Canadian dollars. Money literally gushing out of the ground!

Yet single family homes in Alberta sell for literally 25 cents on the dollar compared to Toronto 416.

I already told you to move here. At very least, send your best and brightest young people. Or just anyone ambitious. Escape house slavery in Toronto and Vancouver.

#81 TurnerNation on 03.08.22 at 8:27 pm

Control over our Feeding? Anyone paying attention after that cold winter week March 2020 when the Old System was shut down…is not surprised.
Almost back to normal guys. Sooo close.

.Canada planning for global food emergency, as Ukraine attack risks wheat supply (ottawa.citynews.ca)

https://finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?t=ZW&p=m1


— A(nother) state of Emergency? ok. Last Aug:

#24 TurnerNation on 08.28.21 at 1:06 pm
Things which have the permanency in Kanada:
1. Fictional ‘State of Emergency’.
2. Flags at half mast
3. CV Rules. Always the rules Comrade.

#82 jimmy zhao on 03.08.22 at 8:29 pm

DELETED

#83 cramar on 03.08.22 at 8:36 pm

As inflation heats up, 64% of Americans are now living paycheck to paycheck

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/03/08/as-prices-rise-64-percent-of-americans-live-paycheck-to-paycheck.html

With 2/3 living that way in America, Canadians must be just as bad. Things are bound to get worse! Heard a trucker today say that the cost of his fuel is going to make EVERYTHING skyrocket in price.

#84 Stone on 03.08.22 at 8:37 pm

#22 Honest Realtor on 03.08.22 at 4:13 pm
2 million have already fled Ukraine. Probably another 5-10 will follow soon.

Let’s join together as Canadians to welcome at least 1,000,000 Ukrainians here.

———

Ukranians are tough mothers. They’re also not stupid enough to go somewhere where the cost of real estate is through the roof.

Are you calling Ukrainians stupid?

#85 DON on 03.08.22 at 8:42 pm

Read about the 1973 Israeli Arab war and the resulting oil embargo. The Arab Opec states stopped selling to the US.

Now we have the US sanctions against Russia and gas prices go through the roof…own goal? Now the US is cozying up to Venezuela and Iran? or is that just fake news?

#86 kappa on 03.08.22 at 8:56 pm

Some worthy reads:

1. “Russian ex-minister says invasion of Ukraine is stalling because officials stole from military budget for mega-yachts in Cyprus ” :
https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/russian-ex-minister-says-invasion-163327193.html

2. “Russian military’s corruption quagmire” :
https://www.politico.eu/article/russia-military-corruption-quagmire/

3. Sergei Magnitsky’s death in Putin’s prisons:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sergei_Magnitsky

This just gives you a better idea about the type government Putin’s been running in Moscow for past 20+ years: criminal, terrorist, similar with a Mafia structure.

#87 Michael in-north-york on 03.08.22 at 9:03 pm

#43 Reality Check on 03.08.22 at 5:19 pm

NATO is not a threat to Russian sovereignty

Much is made by the Russia/Putin apologists about the justification of this invasion being Russia’ fear of NATO.

But nobody realistically believes that NATO would ever threaten Russia’s independence/borders. NATO ain’t gonna invade Russia.

What Putin fear from NATO is that it’s a threat to his dreams of recreating the USSR. In providing an alternative model to the Russian “czar” system and providing NATO protection to member states NATO limits Putin’s ability to take over former Soviet countries (as he is trying to do with the Ukraine).

I believe we all owe a big debt to the Ukrainians and their valiant resistant to Putin. If the Ukraine had just rolled over and allowed the Russian invasion, and if the west had of let it happen without consequence as in the Crimean invasion, the next stop for Putin would have been a NATO country – perhaps picking off small states like Estonia or Latvia.

The Ukrainian invasion and the reaction of the Ukraines and the west may have shown Putin that what he is doing is unacceptable and his expansionist ambitions will be defended against. Ultimately this at have averted a future WW3.
===

100%. Our hearts are with the brave Ukrainians.

#88 conan on 03.08.22 at 9:08 pm

Are the cat pictures an experiment to see if it drives away the anti vax/trumpsters?
Maybe cat owners invest more per average?
Something is going on. Perhaps it is a code.

#89 Summertime on 03.08.22 at 9:16 pm

Real estate, farmland, energy are the best inflation hedged. Maybe gold.

No, real estate will not come down as rates will not be increased as it can not be increased, instead with the broad currency destruction all inflation hedges will retain most of their values.

Recalibration of world economy on a large scale in a very short time with severe energy and food shortages is the future.

Back to the land is the future. Big city dwellers will see their standard of living quickly decline due to gas and food prices. Resources will be redirected to sectors with long term viability.

Done already. 1969. – Garth

#90 KLNR on 03.08.22 at 9:29 pm

@#53 Uncle Thomas on 03.08.22 at 6:34 pm
#42 earthboundmisfit
…. homophobic, anti-abortion, anti-vaxxer, supporter of the brain-dead trucker temper tantrum.
—————————————————
You sound like Trudeau. The usual leftist now standard litany of name calling of people you don’t like. Except you left out racist for some reason.

Candidates like her are why the Cons are headed for permanent opposition status. – Garth

should be amusing watching leslyn lewis, pierre pollievre and randy hillier duke it out for the con leadership. Wonder how low they can go.

#91 willworkforpickles on 03.08.22 at 9:30 pm

#56 B

How are you hedging?
……………………………………………………………………………………………………….

The paid off house you live in may not be right for you to sell, even if its value adjusts downward with the soon to be devalued dollar eaten by inflation.
With today’s low rates, contemplate maybe borrowing to the max against your equity and invest those funds in one of the many gold ETF’s available to keep that wealth buoyed and even increasing as the dollar becomes devalued through near certain killer inflation.
With a low mortgage , you will still come out well ahead in the end. Inflation isn’t going anywhere but up. The Fed won’t raise rates near enough to bring inflation down for some time yet to come. Keep an eye on it as the dollar becomes devalued at any rate. Pile your cash into one of the better gold ETF’s then consult with Turner investments about managing it.

I bought Pretium resources for $3.80 over eight years ago and still hold it. I followed its founder and discoverer to Tudor gold – trading symbol TUD in the same gold camp in BC’s golden triangle, right from its inception and recommend piling into this company at just over 2 bucks CAD. They are in the process of proving up a sound estimate of 70 million ounces of gold. They stand at near 30 million ounces currently and are right in the midst of one of the world’s leading gold camps.
The golden triangle, pushing 200 million plus open pit mineable ounces will be taken over by a leading world major soon enough. It will prove, as many believe – to be a decent hedge against a devaluing dollar.

#92 the Jaguar on 03.08.22 at 9:53 pm

Was rummaging around in a household drawer for a baseball card where I sometimes come across other items and found an old bank statement with funds held in U.S. dollars. ‘Well now’, I thought….should I unload these beauties into a more stable currency given the existential threats currently underway on the US Petro-dollar and upcoming ‘New World Order’? Will countries continue to hold their reserves in US dollars or want to trade in US dollars?

What to do, what to do…much like the thoughts of Winnie the Poo….

Naturally I got back to the more interesting issue of the Luis Tiant card.

That said, ….if you are one of many trying to make sense of this crisis the link below is an informative analysis.
John Joseph Mearsheimer is an American political scientist and international relations scholar.

Pretty smart guy and plain speaking. If you want to understand why your gas bills have gone up and why the front page, breaking news, and water cooler talk is all about what’s going on in Ukraine have a listen to this interview.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=O7KSdFKB1sg

SPOILER ALERT: This is not for the ears of those who like the narrative of ‘The Federation versus the Klingons. Just keep scrolling. These aren’t the droids you are looking for…………

Recorded February 21,2022. Timely. 1:21:47 in length with bits at 36:00 , 51:00, and 54:15 quite interesting.

P.S. to Heather: Any chance that Baxter the Cat has his own collector card? I’m mad for those blue eyes…

#93 Philco on 03.08.22 at 9:58 pm

#22 Honest Realtor on 03.08.22 at 4:13
2 million have already fled Ukraine. Probably another 5-10 will follow soon.
Let’s join together as Canadians to welcome at least 1,000,000 Ukrainians here.
%%%%%%%%%%%%%%
Where, your basement?
PS im Ukrainian
Theres a global crisis ever year or 3…
What about Afghanistan?
Grow up.

#94 willworkforpickles on 03.08.22 at 10:03 pm

If you’ve fallen for the narrative of using RE as an inflation hedge, you’ve fallen for an old outdated narrative inapplicable to these times of unprecedented change.
Its a tough pill to take in adjusting to the threat our dollars can be devalued badly and then acting on it.

#95 Proud Truck Driver on 03.08.22 at 10:11 pm

The almighty NATO doesn’t dare even sneeze at the Russians.

#96 Philco on 03.08.22 at 10:12 pm

#84 Stone on 03.08.22 at 8:37 pm
#22 Honest Realtor on 03.08.22 at 4:13 pm
2 million have already fled Ukraine. Probably another 5-10 will follow soon.
Let’s join together as Canadians to welcome at least 1,000,000 Ukrainians here.
———
Ukranians are tough mothers. They’re also not stupid enough to go somewhere where the cost of real estate is through the roof.
Are you calling Ukrainians stupid?
%%%%%%%%%%%
Honest realator, sounds ignororate beyound belief.
Pretending to know where RE is going and the 4000 things that rule rule that market.
OR if you had a bloody clue you wouldnt be here pumping your BS.
Piss off your anoying as HELL.
Comes from a guy worth I gauretee more than you.
I don’t moderate so i can call you an idiot.
Dip-shit-RE works. New handle.

#97 Observer on 03.08.22 at 10:20 pm

#90 KLNR on 03.08.22 at 9:29 pm
@#53 Uncle Thomas on 03.08.22 at 6:34 pm
#42 earthboundmisfit
…. homophobic, anti-abortion, anti-vaxxer, supporter of the brain-dead trucker temper tantrum.
—————————————————
You sound like Trudeau. The usual leftist now standard litany of name calling of people you don’t like. Except you left out racist for some reason.

Candidates like her are why the Cons are headed for permanent opposition status. – Garth

should be amusing watching leslyn lewis, pierre pollievre and randy hillier duke it out for the con leadership. Wonder how low they can go.

^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^
Randy Hillier doesn’t even have a twitter account anymore.
https://twitter.com/randyhillier

#98 crowdedelevatorfartz on 03.08.22 at 10:37 pm

@#92 the jag

Sorry.
But I refuse to listen to anything funded by Russian Television.
I don’t need Putin’s propaganda machine.
I get enough from CBC and Global.

Happy International Womens day today.

I googled to see if there was an International Mens day. ( not that I really care…)
Seems there is.
In Nov.

Last years International Men’s day theme?
How men should treat women better.

#99 Ponzius Pilatus on 03.08.22 at 10:42 pm

4 Shawn on 03.08.22 at 3:10 pm
Charity?

I made a donation to a Ukraine relief effort recommended by some Ukrainian friends.

Here’s where they said to give:

https://www.cobblestonefreewayfoundation.ca/support-ukraine-fund

How about some of the regulars here make a donation? Every dollar helps.
—————————
Kids are usually the most affected by wars and upheavals.
The are many situations in the world where kids are suffering because adults are idiots.
During the last 30 years, my only charity has been UNICEF.
It has a good track record, and I believe the money actually is used to help kids in need.

#100 Ponzius Pilatus on 03.08.22 at 10:48 pm

The Nickel Song
“They only putting in a Nickel,
And they want a dollar song”

#101 ulsterman on 03.08.22 at 10:54 pm

Some thoughts on the above comments:

Your equity gains of $1m+ aren’t “real unless you sell”. Oh come on. You’ve made $1m tax free equity. A once in a lifetime lottery win and you’re telling people they’re not rich? Just the knowledge that you have this money to fall back on if you really really needed it is GOLD. Yes yes, groceries have gone up too, but really, that’s your best challenge?

Renting is awesome? Bullshit. You are not building equity unless you’re that unicorn renter who takes the magical difference between rent and mortgage payments and invests it and now has a bazzillion dollars in your TFSA. Yes, i’m SURE you do. Most renters are not in the six figure income range. Most of those people bought years ago and have to settle for a low mortgage payment and a high income. Sucks i know. Most renters are low income (relatively speaking) or young and low income. Try looking for rentals in the lower mainland and see the shit selection at absurdly high prices. Try the constant threat of eviction once your one year lease is up. Try the not being able to put down roots.

I’m a believer in stocks. For the brave this will be a fantastic buying opportunity. Be greedy when others are fearful. Remember, this time it’s NOT different. Just like with covid. And 2009. And Dot Bomb. And 1987.

#102 Cowtown Cowboy on 03.08.22 at 10:55 pm

Shawn on 03.08.22 at 8:27 pm
Move to Alberta Already!!

West Texas Oil is at $124 U.S. dollars. That’s $160 in Canadian dollars. Money literally gushing out of the ground!

Yet single family homes in Alberta sell for literally 25 cents on the dollar compared to Toronto 416.

I already told you to move here. At very least, send your best and brightest young people. Or just anyone ambitious. Escape house slavery in Toronto and Vancouver.
————————————————————————————-
Do not come here, we’re full. Keep your pos $2mil shanty semis, we’ll keep all that liquid gold that keeps bubbling up from the ground, apparently it is getting more valuable every minute the idiot left is in charge!

#103 DON on 03.08.22 at 10:58 pm

#80 Shawn on 03.08.22 at 8:27 pm
Move to Alberta Already!!

West Texas Oil is at $124 U.S. dollars. That’s $160 in Canadian dollars. Money literally gushing out of the ground!

Yet single family homes in Alberta sell for literally 25 cents on the dollar compared to Toronto 416.

I already told you to move here. At very least, send your best and brightest young people. Or just anyone ambitious. Escape house slavery in Toronto and Vancouver.

*********

Had two friends move back to Alberta in the last 6 months from BC for those reasons and good jobs. A family member was thinking the same.

#104 Ponzius Pilatus on 03.08.22 at 11:00 pm

#51 Observer on 03.08.22 at 6:19 pm
#18 Philco on 03.08.22 at 3:59 pm

That’s our BOY [Trudeau].

Embarrassing
He couldn’t even handle some trucker protest. A war!? Go home son. OMG

^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^
Once it was apparent that neither the city of Ottawa, nor Ontario were able to do anything about the Ottawa occupation, “our BOY” stepped in and quickly solved the problem. Looks like he handled it just fine.
————————-
Of course he did.
He stood up to the protesters like the stud he is.
While the other “men” were cooking pancakes for the protesters.

#105 willworkforpickles on 03.08.22 at 11:06 pm

Think about it
Lets do a hypothetical equation since the reality of it isn’t anywhere near yet.

Take 1 dollar today.
Eaten away by steady rising inflation over the next say…2 years by 90%.
So 2 years hence, the dollar becomes devalued to just 10 cents.
Those dollars buy RE.
Take your house today valued at say…1 million dollars.
Lets say, hypothetically speaking, with all the smallish rate increases over the next 2 years , houses don’t increase or decrease in value and its still worth 1 million dollars.
2 years hence still worth 1 million dollars but dollars devalued by 90% even though your house is still worth a million dollars.

Now the smart money sells out today and takes his non devalued dollars and hedges them out from the dollar and maintains the full value and wealth in a smart inflation hedge.

Two years down the road he takes one tenth of that hedged/preserved wealth and buys a 1 million devalued dollar house with it.

Get it?…many still won’t I’m sure.

#106 Glen Jaeger on 03.08.22 at 11:07 pm

War didn’t spike prices, Trudeau fired up inflation long before Putin’s thing. Let’s get real. The crazy policy capping energy production was hurting Canadians long before the war. Be serious. Food prices were being forced up by supply being constrained by Trudeaus idiotic Covid policies being in disease and then shutting down businesses to deflect from the fact that Trudeau hadn’t mandated any health protocols in early days. Let’s be honest. Now Trudeaus in Europe, blabbing he’s got our backs. EU media is shaking its head at his continued Tom Foolery. It’s gotten real. We have bad ineffective leadership. Isn’t that really what’s happening. Feel the pain of the Ukraine, but don’t forget what Trudeaus done to Canada. The Covid death numbers are still up there for all to see. A trip to Europe won’t change that. Gutting Canadian energy and imposing egregious taxes are the cause of the pain in Canada. Focus Up.

#107 Ponzius Pilatus on 03.08.22 at 11:07 pm

69 Binder Dundat on 03.08.22 at 7:38 pm
‍Fitch cuts Russia’s rating further into junk, says debt default imminent:

https://www.reuters.com/markets/europe/fitch-cuts-russias-rating-says-debt-default-imminent-2022-03-08On March 16 Russia is due to pay $107 million in coupons across two bonds, though it has a 30-day grace period to make the payments. The next full ‘principal’ repayment is a $359 million 2030 bond on March 31 and then a larger $2 billion maturity on April 4.

Russian gas giant Gazprom has a $1.3 billion dollar bond due for repayment on March 7.
—————————
Don’t worry, they gonna make the payments.
In Rubles, at par.

#108 Mid on 03.08.22 at 11:23 pm

Not “low income” co-ops, affordable co-ops.

#109 Mc D on 03.08.22 at 11:26 pm

McDonald’s is closing all restaurants in Russia?

How long before we learn that Russian citizens now live 3 years longer and obesity rate dropped 12% in Russia?

I mark this as a win for Russia.

#110 expat on 03.09.22 at 12:13 am

After huge fiasco in Ukraine, after socialist “democratic” US was defeated, criminals from “democratic” White House, will introduce new “pandemia” to continue mind control of stupid, uneducated westerners, to divert their mind from economical, societal, demographic destruction of USA
http://theeconomiccollapseblog.com/

As usual, American “democrats” will not take any responsibility for death and suffering of millions of Ukrainians and Russians.

#111 millmech on 03.09.22 at 2:15 am

#42
I am confused by the anti abortion/anti vax issue. Since there are 400,000 pregnancies in Canada every year and close to 100,000 abortions performed every year resulting in a 25% medical mortality rate for getting pregnant. Covid caused about 15,000 deaths a year for two years, what is the greater threat to life, being conceived or getting the flu.
I am pro choice I just do not understand the dynamics if life is so precious that we are willing to take away rights and freedoms from one group and deride them for endangering life, and yet we applaud the “my body my choice” when it comes to abortion but not vaccination, seems like a double standard.

#112 IHCTD9 on 03.09.22 at 2:16 am

#51 Observer on 03.08.22 at 6:19 pm
#18 Philco on 03.08.22 at 3:59 pm

That’s our BOY [Trudeau].

Embarrassing
He couldn’t even handle some trucker protest. A war!? Go home son. OMG

^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^
Once it was apparent that neither the city of Ottawa, nor Ontario were able to do anything about the Ottawa occupation, “our BOY” stepped in and quickly solved the problem. Looks like he handled it just fine.
—- ——

Our boy could have just done his job and talked with the truckers. That might have defused the whole situation. Instead, he went into hiding, and called them names. This resulted in the truckers digging in their heels, the Ottawa Citizenry having to endure weeks of disruption, and cost the City millions of dollars.

Our boy played the only card he had left as a result of his own bungled crisis management, and now the whole planet thinks he’s an idiot. Trudeau’s handling of the trucker convoy has done more damage to Canada’s international reputation than probably anything else in our history. He definitely won’t show his face in India again, and they’re laughing at him in Europe.

All of this could have been easily avoided, and for nearly zero cost. But our boy did it his way instead, inflaming more division; while burning millions – for nothing.

#113 Harold on 03.09.22 at 3:34 am

I wanted to sell in December at highs. I had invested just before and after Covid-19 and so have experienced sudden massive drops and sudden gains.

My portfolio is diversified but a bit tech heavy. I put more money in January just to see it crater because my friend said January gives you the best returns. Then I wanted to sell February where I still had gains from 2020, but same friend said he was holding. I know I should do my own investing which I do. But I keep track of big moves friends make or ask advice.

Just today, this is what my friend said. “Just sold everything. I didn’t touch my joint account ETF. But my entire TFSA is clear, have no investments.”

He invested much earlier than I did so his gains were always greater. Now I am just seeing a dwindling portfolio turning red, and all the gains of 2020 and 2021 eroding. Do I just hold and ignore the staglation, recession risk? Do I sell while I still have a realized gain and rebuy at the bottom? It feels like a world of hurt is still coming.

#114 under the radar on 03.09.22 at 7:03 am

#96
We are divesting all of our purpose built starting next month. We hope to be done by the end of this year. Assets have become too valuable and untangling interests is best done by present generation.

“Comes from a guy worth I gauretee more than you.
I don’t moderate so i can call you an idiot. ”

There is always a bigger fish.

#115 the Jaguar on 03.09.22 at 7:18 am

@#98 crowdedelevatorfartz on 03.08.22 at 10:37 pm

Gosh darnitt Crowdie, I told ya to keep scrolling!

Don’t worry. It’s becoming apparent to the ‘exceptional nation’ that they have made a huge mistake with their ‘sanctions from hell’ . Russia has been way ahead of the curve on supply chain issues and building self sufficiency. But the damage the US petro dollar and US reputation is real. The UN Vote is evidence of that. Moral authority and finger wagging is in the toilet.

Below the hours old ‘ announcement’ by the Ukie Prez about backing off on NATO presence in Ukraine. Now just why the hell couldn’t they have done that in the first place?
Make no mistake that Zelenskyy is just the front man for the ‘exceptional nation’. Blinken, Nuland , Biden and the gang must be changing their underwear every hour.

“I have cooled down regarding this question a long time ago after we understood that … NATO is not prepared to accept Ukraine,” Zelenskyy said in a televised interview. “The alliance is afraid of controversial things, and confrontation with Russia.”- Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelenskyy “.

#116 crowdedelevatorfartz on 03.09.22 at 7:39 am

@#104 Ponzie’s Polling Plummet
“He stood up to the protesters like the stud he is.”

+++
“Stud”?
I think our declared “feminist” prime minister would be offended at that description.

As for his ham fisted resolution to the truckers protest.
A majority of Canadians disagree with you.
Wayy wayyy waaaay too late and wayyy wayy wayy too much.
The Emergency Measures act?
Very dramatic and our PM is nothing but dramatic.
His father declared the War Measures act when people were being bombed, kidnapped and murdered.
Our PM squatted on the Constitution for flag waving horn honking idiots.
Simple arrests, tows and fines would have worked just fine instead of the bank account freezes, and wheezy announcements from a podium.

Speaking or which.
Where is our “studly” PM posing today?
Somewhere safe like The Berlin Wall?
He can wait for the photographers to set up before he stares sternly, with his studly jaw set, off into the
eastern distance…….

#117 crowdedelevatorfartz on 03.09.22 at 7:44 am

@#109 McD
“McDonald’s is closing all restaurants in Russia?”
++++
Gee Micky Dee’s beat Starbucks to the punch?
Or did they run out of hamburger buns?
Probably the latter.

With the plummeting ruble it’s pretty hard to sell a Chicken McDinnersky to a comerade for two ducks and a goat.

#118 Michael in-north-york on 03.09.22 at 7:53 am

Ukrainian civilian casualties resulting from the Russian agression: 406 killed, 801 injured according to the U.N. human rights office. Those are just confirmed casualties, the real number can be a lot higher.

https://www.newsweek.com/exclusive-civilian-casualties-ukraine-are-5-times-higher-un-report-1685736

Ground troops of Belarussia refuse to cross the border and aid Putin’s criminals in their war againt Ukraine.

Belarussian dictator (Lukashenko) is totally dependent on Putin for financial support. Putin’s troops are using the Belarussia territory to launch aerial attacks against Ukraine.

But Belarussian soldiers do not want to fight against their sister nation Ukraine. Belarussian commanders on the ground employed every possible excuse to disobey Lukashenko’s orders to cross the border.

Then the Russian advance in Ukraine stalled. Now, Lukashenko himself is making all excuses to remain formally allied with Putin, but to avoid sending his troops into the ground combat.

#119 crowdedelevatorfartz on 03.09.22 at 7:55 am

Well.
Its been almost two years since our “stud” of a feminist PM handed out hundreds of billions in CERB cash and business handouts.

The audits are starting.
:)

The Cons are hoping to choose an electable leader in Sept.

Another $200 million dollar Election by this Christmas?
As we scramble to find housing for another 500,000 refugees?

#120 Bottoms_Up on 03.09.22 at 8:43 am

#112 IHCTD9 on 03.09.22 at 2:16 am
‐——————–
There are protests in Ottawa every other day. The catholics send in teenagers to protest against abortion. Is it the role of the PM to hold daily discussions with whatever flavour of the day shows up?

#121 Bottoms_Up on 03.09.22 at 8:47 am

#111 millmech on 03.09.22 at 2:15 am
———————-
You getting an abortion doesn’t protect my life or improve public health.

Also your argument touches on the ‘when does life begin’, definition, which has been ruled on by the courts, so it is inappropriate to call it loss of life. Loss of a ‘potential’ life, sure. But not loss of life.

#122 IHCTD9 on 03.09.22 at 9:00 am

#120 Bottoms_Up on 03.09.22 at 8:43 am
#112 IHCTD9 on 03.09.22 at 2:16 am
‐——————–
There are protests in Ottawa every other day. The catholics send in teenagers to protest against abortion. Is it the role of the PM to hold daily discussions with whatever flavour of the day shows up?
____

Totally up to the PM. He couldn’t run out there fast enough to meet with a different group not too long ago.

Trudeau has a job to do, how he does it is up to him. If he totally bombs it (as he did with the convoy), then he pays the price for his lack of brainpower (as he is now).

#123 Sail Away on 03.09.22 at 9:15 am

#109 Mc D on 03.08.22 at 11:26 pm

McDonald’s is closing all restaurants in Russia?

How long before we learn that Russian citizens now live 3 years longer and obesity rate dropped 12% in Russia?

I mark this as a win for Russia.

——–

Oh, don’t worry about Russia’s obesity rate. Lack of food in and of itself, without even putting McD’s into the mix, is wonderfully effective. Like magic. They’ll all have sixpacks. Or at least you’ll be able to see everyone’s ribs, which is sort of the same.

#124 IHCTD9 on 03.09.22 at 9:17 am

#119 crowdedelevatorfartz on 03.09.22 at 7:55 am

The Cons are hoping to choose an electable leader in Sept.
___

It’s looking like a long shot.

If they elect PP (I love the guy but he won’t get the votes and best serves right where he is) or LL, Trudeau will continue to reduce Canada to ash.

Houses up 100% since Trudeau. Debt up 100% since Trudeau. Government looking like a bunch of yahoos up 100% since Trudeau.

What would 6 more years of Trudeau bring?

#125 Freedomnowcitizenz on 03.09.22 at 9:24 am

Garth, very disappointed that you and other cowardly Canadians have not volunteered to go fight to liberate to Ukraine. A bunch of real estate losers, the lot of of you. Especially with the historical connection to Edmonchuk, may I propose the formation of the DCFU brigade, Don Cherry freedom for Ukraine fighters brigade. Time to mobilize and get out of those cheesy 2nd rate Bay Street towers. Hemingway and Bogart would be proud. Aux armes citoyennes;

#126 crowdedelevatorfartz on 03.09.22 at 9:32 am

@#118 Mike in Mel Lastman Square
“Lukashenko himself is making all excuses to remain formally allied with Putin, but to avoid sending his troops into the ground combat.”

+++

Hopefully, in time, the cheering Belarussian mob will place Lukashenko’s head on a pike in Red Square right next to Putin’s…..
A fitting end to two ruthless murderers.

#127 Sail Away on 03.09.22 at 9:33 am

#113 Harold on 03.09.22 at 3:34 am

Re: investing

———–

Oh my. DIY investing can be difficult. Emotions are your enemy.

Prudent advice is almost always to avoid selling at a low, but it’s very hard to say without knowing your portfolio, since that advice assumes solid and dependable holdings.

#128 IHCTD9 on 03.09.22 at 9:43 am

#103 DON on 03.08.22 at 10:58 pm
#80 Shawn on 03.08.22 at 8:27 pm
Move to Alberta Already!!

West Texas Oil is at $124 U.S. dollars. That’s $160 in Canadian dollars. Money literally gushing out of the ground!

Yet single family homes in Alberta sell for literally 25 cents on the dollar compared to Toronto 416.

I already told you to move here. At very least, send your best and brightest young people. Or just anyone ambitious. Escape house slavery in Toronto and Vancouver.

*********

Had two friends move back to Alberta in the last 6 months from BC for those reasons and good jobs. A family member was thinking the same.
____

Last guy I know who exited for AB was years ago – a fairly hard left millennial too. Life here in Ontario was bad enough for a young single dude, that he was willing to mingle with the Cowboys hoping for a better life. He did get one.

#129 DON on 03.09.22 at 9:51 am

Who owns Reuters news agency?

Heard it was the Royhchilds…is that true?

No. Canada’s Thomson family. – Garth

#130 crowdedelevatorfartz on 03.09.22 at 9:57 am

DELETED

#131 Satori on 03.09.22 at 10:03 am

#100 Ponzius Pilatus on 03.08.22 at 10:48 pm

The old UNICEF CEO Caryl M. Stern received $1,900,000 per year (158K) per month, plus all expenses including a ROLLS ROYCE.

I get that no one works for free but some of these ‘non-profits’ are a bit over the top.

My advice is do a bit research before you donate.

https://www.charitywatch.org/top-charity-salaries

#132 Stoph on 03.09.22 at 10:05 am

#121 Bottoms_Up on 03.09.22 at 8:47 am

Also your argument touches on the ‘when does life begin’, definition, which has been ruled on by the courts, so it is inappropriate to call it loss of life. Loss of a ‘potential’ life, sure. But not loss of life.

———————————

Tell that to a woman who has just had a miscarriage.

#133 Weltschmerz on 03.09.22 at 10:09 am

Garth, (or whoever wants to answer)

Let’s just say there was a correction in housing: housing in my area (like all areas) is going up in value by the day. New people are moving to this city in droves. There are good jobs. Elderly people are selling and perhaps funding their offspring. I know you speak of a ‘slow melt’ but to what extent? If my house is 1M now (in paper worth) what could I expect in 10 years? 1M or perhaps 2-3% growth per year to keep with inflation? I get the expectation of future growth can drive FOMO but I also get supply and demand.

I was floored for what we paid for this house 10 years ago…it blows my mind what people will pay now…is 10 years from now going to be different? People were buying houses with 12% rates – they find a way…how do we expect this to change?

Very generalized, but I would like to get some thoughts on this!

#134 Knox09 on 03.09.22 at 10:21 am

@earthboundmisfit

Leslyn Lewis has Christian Values, well spoken, educated, humble and would be a great PM. Complete opposite of or current PM. Believing the Bible as the absolute truth and manual for living is not a hate crime, unfortunately for many in tolerant people they view in a such. The world in increasing hostile to the Christian Faith.

She is an anti-vax, alt-right socon and represents the worst possible direction for conservativism. Canadians are centrists and a leader like this would guarantee another generation of Liberal government. – Garth

#135 willworkforpickles on 03.09.22 at 10:31 am

2 reasons there may be no better time to hedge your dollars against inflation and future dollar devaluation:
-The US dollar is peaking temporarily due to its current best war time safe haven alternative. This will end when the war ends, and the US and CAD will commence into long descent.
-The best inflation hedges are being loaded up on and are getting more expensive to get into every day.

So take those peak dollars and protect them buying more cheap hedge protection with all that current value while the hedges are still semi inexpensive.

Or wait with the pack sitting on your hands doing nothing hoping the dollar will keep rising in value and the hedges will start falling in prices . They Won’t.

#136 Philco on 03.09.22 at 10:36 am

Sorry had a few wines last night.
We need common sense which is hard to find or near impossible.
The math has to work unless your a socislist. Then its just a matter of time. :-)

#137 RE_Investor on 03.09.22 at 10:43 am

#96 Philco on 03.08.22 at 10:12 pm
#84 Stone on 03.08.22 at 8:37 pm
#22 Honest Realtor on 03.08.22 at 4:13 pm
2 million have already fled Ukraine. Probably another 5-10 will follow soon.
Let’s join together as Canadians to welcome at least 1,000,000 Ukrainians here.
———
Ukranians are tough mothers. They’re also not stupid enough to go somewhere where the cost of real estate is through the roof.
Are you calling Ukrainians stupid?
%%%%%%%%%%%
Honest realator, sounds ignororate beyound belief.
Pretending to know where RE is going and the 4000 things that rule rule that market.
OR if you had a bloody clue you wouldnt be here pumping your BS.
Piss off your anoying as HELL.
Comes from a guy worth I gauretee more than you.
I don’t moderate so i can call you an idiot.
Dip-shit-RE works. New handle.
_____________________

Philco needs a spelling / grammar lesson.
oh well, here’s a math equation lesson.
Philco = Happy Housing Crash Everyone!

#138 Philco on 03.09.22 at 11:02 am

#112 IHCTD9 on 03.09.22 at 2:16 am
#51 Observer on 03.08.22 at 6:19 pm
#18 Philco on 03.08.22 at 3:59 pm

That’s our BOY [Trudeau].
$$$$$$$$$$$$$$
IHCTD9 its funny how some cant read between the lines.
Bang on bro.
Did ya see this.

Report From a Canadian Truck Supporter on Banks

I wrote an important piece last week. Here is a response from one of the trucker supporters married to a banker.

“If the best run and most financed bank in the world has a bank run, they close the doors. Well, the entire banking system in Canada froze and the real reason Trudeau and Freeland did a 180 degree turn overnight was because they were told by the banks that unless Trudeau wanted to kill the entire economy of Canada, they had to cut out the stupid shit.”

Yup. I was there in the trenchs and my sweet Beryl, teller at the CIBC, was shell shocked. She’d never seen that much money go out the door. I live in a very upper middle class/rich neighbourhood and people were walking in and demanding 20K or 50K and their USD. It was awesome and it scared the shit out of the banks. Accounts were being closed, investment accounts moved, RSPs transferred.

The truckers lit the fire, the bank run turned it into an inferno.

I wrote Bill back and asked if I could repost what he said.

Absolutely.

To add a bit of flavour. I wanted to pull USD from my USD account. The branch had to order the cash. Fair ball. But poor Beryl had to go four days with “Well, things are slow at the cash place.” “Covid, they are short staffed.”

I love Beryl. I had to tell her I would be “annoyed” if the cash did not get in next business day. It did. So I was able to tell Beryl I was delighted and would not have to parade in front of the bank with my sign, “Where’s my money?”

She was relieved.

A lot of Canadians drained their accounts or closed them altogether. It was quiet but it was very, very, effective.

You can think you have all the power in the world but when you are wrong it can get expensive. Trudeau and Freeland didn’t have the power they thought they had.

This is patently false. Shame on you for propagating this lie. – Garth

#139 Love_The_Cottage on 03.09.22 at 11:09 am

As the price of oil drops I’m reminded of the time Jeff Rubin predicted $225/barrel by 2012 due to ‘peak oil’.

Anyone can we wrong, but wow was that a bad call. Totally ignoring so many factors including the increase of green energy, decrease in demand when prices increase, alternative supply options (fracking, nat gas, etc).

#140 Michael in-north-york on 03.09.22 at 11:11 am

#126 crowdedelevatorfartz on 03.09.22 at 9:32 am

@#118 Mike in Mel Lastman Square
“Lukashenko himself is making all excuses to remain formally allied with Putin, but to avoid sending his troops into the ground combat.”

+++

Hopefully, in time, the cheering Belarussian mob will place Lukashenko’s head on a pike in Red Square right next to Putin’s…..
A fitting end to two ruthless murderers.
===

While I share that wish, Putin still has a lot of power under his control, and can continue his assault against the free world for many years. Unless certain fortunate events take place.

Lukashenko, on the other hand, is toast either way. If Pu is gone, then Lu will be gone within days. His own police forces will do him, as he has no money to pay their next salary. If Pu eventually wins in Ukraine, then he will replace Lu. Pu is fed up with Lu’s cheap tricks. He will install someone more obedient instead of Lu.

#141 Philco on 03.09.22 at 11:16 am

#104 Ponzius Pilatus on 03.08.22 at 11:00 pm
$$$$$$$$
Hahaha nice.
Well real protest need to make pain or your ignored. Oh your ignored anyway lol.
I put in some extra cell site capacity at UBC around yr 2000 for the ilitest world confrence.
I saw peacefull protesters pepper sprayed in the face by our cops for no reason.
Know what your dealing with with the ruling class.
You dont have a say. Your cattle to be milked.

#142 IHCTD9 on 03.09.22 at 11:17 am

#101 ulsterman on 03.08.22 at 10:54 pm
Some thoughts on the above comments:

Your equity gains of $1m+ aren’t “real unless you sell”. Oh come on. You’ve made $1m tax free equity. A once in a lifetime lottery win and you’re telling people they’re not rich?
_____

That is correct. Which magical homeowner sells out and moves under a bridge to bank those gains? They are not actually real for those who aspire to continue living/working in the same area as their bloated house is located. These are the majority of owners.

How many of these GTA/GVA homeowners want, or can – move out into the sticks? The logistical quagmire of actually putting housing gains into your bank account is a negative that exceeds the benefit of those gains for most. That’s the actual reality. So, no sale means no gains. Same as anything else.

Spoken like a true Canadian, rooted like an oak in one place. There are several ways of harvesting equity, diversifying, mitigating risk and growing wealth in a more balanced way. But the myopia you defend prevents it. Not necessarily a wise stance. – Garth

#143 Philco on 03.09.22 at 11:21 am

#79 Ustabe on 03.08.22 at 8:26 pm

I here ya. Its all about leadership and the power of the people.
A country can degrade in the qualiy of living with poor policies and leadership real fast.
We dont have a solid leader that umderstands much especially monitary policy. One of the most important.
Fingers crossed!!

#144 DON on 03.09.22 at 11:22 am

#129 DON on 03.09.22 at 9:51 am
Who owns Reuters news agency?

Heard it was the Royhchilds…is that true?

No. Canada’s Thomson family. – Garth

******
Thank you for the answer Garth…much appreciated.

#145 Ponzius Pilatus on 03.09.22 at 11:22 am

#131 Satori on 03.09.22 at 10:03 am
#100 Ponzius Pilatus on 03.08.22 at 10:48 pm

The old UNICEF CEO Caryl M. Stern received $1,900,000 per year (158K) per month, plus all expenses including a ROLLS ROYCE.

I get that no one works for free but some of these ‘non-profits’ are a bit over the top.

My advice is do a bit research before you donate.

https://www.charitywatch.org/top-charity-salaries
———————————
Thanks for your advice.
I think I donate to the National Rifle Association RNA, from now on.
Their top guy only makes 1.6 million.

#146 VladTor on 03.09.22 at 11:23 am

to #29 Søren Angst on 03.08.22 at 4:32 pm

*******************

O my friend, your list is to short. You will be happy if I tell that list is much longer!

Now I’m going to pour a bucket of cold water over your boisterous head.

All these companies did not leave Russia, but only SUSPENDED their activities. McDonald’s, for example, even continues to pay salaries to employees. Well, I’m not saying that they all continue to pay rent and factories, shops, offices are still there

Second, learn economics not from YouTube and Twitter, but from business sources.
So for almost all companies that have left, there is an equivalent in Russian business. Imagine how happy these businesses are now-suddenly losing a powerful competitor. If this continues for 2-3 years, the Russian buyer will simply forget about Western companies. The market is easy to lose and very difficult to win-this is an axiom of business.

Third , you must always remember that the essence of any company is profit, in order to increase revenues, just selling a product is not enough. Various promotions, marketing, working with the client, creating your own production, and much more are used. It follows that the company will lose possible money in the future, certain assets that were invested in real estate, production, and personnel training.

Fourth , when large companies leave the market, they run the risk of leaving their employees without a salary, but this is not the case. After all, leaving without a trace, emptying bank accounts, selling all assets in one day will not work! They will have to pay off all their obligations or leave everything they have accumulated as it is and leave the country forever.

Well, etc.

Moral – don’t study economics on Twitter or Facebook.

And finally, do you think that companies will so easily part with a market of 150 million customers

They will return in a maximum of 3 months, well, in 6, and they will also apologize to customers.

#147 KLNR on 03.09.22 at 11:29 am

@#134 Knox09 on 03.09.22 at 10:21 am
@earthboundmisfit

The world is increasing hostile to the Christian Faith.

with good reason.
oh, and leslyn lewis is the exact opposite of what the cons and Canada for that matter needs.

#148 Ponzius Pilatus on 03.09.22 at 11:37 am

#140 Michael in-north-york on 03.09.22 at 11:11 am
#126 crowdedelevatorfartz on 03.09.22 at 9:32 am

@#118 Mike in Mel Lastman Square
“Lukashenko himself is making all excuses to remain formally allied with Putin, but to avoid sending his troops into the ground combat.”

+++

Hopefully, in time, the cheering Belarussian mob will place Lukashenko’s head on a pike in Red Square right next to Putin’s…..
A fitting end to two ruthless murderers.
===

While I share that wish, Putin still has a lot of power under his control, and can continue his assault against the free world for many years. Unless certain fortunate events take place.

Lukashenko, on the other hand, is toast either way. If Pu is gone, then Lu will be gone within days. His own police forces will do him, as he has no money to pay their next salary. If Pu eventually wins in Ukraine, then he will replace Lu. Pu is fed up with Lu’s cheap tricks. He will install someone more obedient instead of Lu.
——————————-
Who needs FoxNews, when we have our own Yorkie and CEF reporting live from the ground in Eastern Europe?
Or, is it from their basements?

#149 Ponzius Pilatus on 03.09.22 at 11:40 am

147 KLNR on 03.09.22 at 11:29 am
@#134 Knox09 on 03.09.22 at 10:21 am
@earthboundmisfit

The world is increasing hostile to the Christian Faith.

with good reason.
oh, and leslyn lewis is the exact opposite of what the cons and Canada for that matter needs.
——————-
And stop knocking on my door, and we’ll get along just fine.

#150 Dr V on 03.09.22 at 12:00 pm

“Spoken like a true Canadian, rooted like an oak in one place. There are several ways of harvesting equity, diversifying, mitigating risk and growing wealth in a more balanced way. But the myopia you defend prevents it. Not necessarily a wise stance. – Garth ” (in response to IHCTD9)

I did not interpret IHCTD9s post as promoting a one
asset strategy. He merely explained the situation many Canadians now find themselves in.

I believe this is worth at least one dedicated post. it would be interesting to hear from bloggers about their own situations and explain why they are selling, or not, and strategies they have employed to increase liquid wealth or income using home equity. A poll could be revealing.

#151 Michael in-north-york on 03.09.22 at 12:18 pm

#148 Ponzius Pilatus on 03.09.22 at 11:37 am

Who needs FoxNews, when we have our own Yorkie and CEF reporting live from the ground in Eastern Europe?
Or, is it from their basements?
===

Google is your friend, ponzie.
Of course, reading is hard for you. Get your certificate already.

#152 Dr V on 03.09.22 at 12:20 pm

113 Harold

“I wanted to sell in December at highs. I had invested just before and after Covid-19 and so have experienced sudden massive drops and sudden gains.”
——————————

There is nothing wrong with taking a profit, just as long as you use the money wisely and it is tax efficient. If you are still working and years from retirement, you may simply re-balance. If you are close to retirement, are retired, or could just use the money, take out as
much of the gain as you like, and re-invest the book cost
or just leave the remaining original investment.

You may feel apprehension doing this, but my advisor
explained that I would have to get used to doing so in my retirement. So I have nibbled at some gains in the last while (particularly from US holdings), as well as sold some older investments, taken the gains, and re-invested the original amounts in more income-oriented funds.

Bigger question right now is what to buy, and how to time it (never works perfectly with these day-to-day swings) but the recent corrections in US and Int’l markets are opportunities.

#153 Dr V on 03.09.22 at 12:26 pm

Holy crap, look at all that green. I’m lookin’ like a genius from yesterdays buys. Shoulda gone to Vegas.

#154 Philco on 03.09.22 at 12:29 pm

This is patently false. Shame on you for propagating this lie. – Garth
——–
fair enough. Will try To confirm facts and proof.

#137 RE_Investor on 03.09.22 at 10:43 am
Philco needs a spelling / grammar lesson.
oh well, here’s a math equation lesson.
Philco = Happy Housing Crash Everyone!
———————————
Thanks for the tip. Another comedian I guess you missed the drinking wine part.
But actually spelling is the lowest priority.
Math is of the highest.
If you knew me personally you would see why….Thankfully you don’t

Housing crash another silly comment. Unless the bond market crashes and a few other possible things its impossible to call.
The 2008 I called if within 4 months. I personally have proof.
Structurally markets and housing could stay solid and they are ok for now…
You need a lot of sellers. Crashes bring opportunities but I have no interest in owning residential..
I betcha you don’t own a home? lol

#155 Sail Away on 03.09.22 at 12:54 pm

Regardless of human drama, the spring morel mushrooms will once again appear in May, the trout will be hungry and the sun will rise in the east. Cheerfully planning this spring’s morel/fishing/camping excursion.

Summer fires = springtime morel abundance. Can’t wait. Somewhere around the location previously known as Lytton. Look for a wall tent and dogs.

#156 peacenik on 03.09.22 at 1:18 pm

DELETED

#157 Dr V on 03.09.22 at 1:34 pm

Really enjoying the kitty pics. Have a tabby myself. Love how each whisker emanates from its own black spot.

#158 IHCTD9 on 03.09.22 at 1:55 pm

Spoken like a true Canadian, rooted like an oak in one place. There are several ways of harvesting equity, diversifying, mitigating risk and growing wealth in a more balanced way. But the myopia you defend prevents it. Not necessarily a wise stance. – Garth
____

#101 equates a million in equity as being rich, I (and others) say not till you sell it:

“Owners not selling leave a never-again, untaxed profit on the table.”

I also assert that even when selling, it isn’t so easy actually banking those housing gains.

#159 jess on 03.09.22 at 1:57 pm

ghost workers

AI,-

Anthropologist Mary L. Gray and computer scientist Siddharth Suri team up to unveil how services delivered by companies like Amazon, Google, Microsoft, and Uber can only function smoothly thanks to the judgment and experience of a vast, invisible human labor force. These people doing “ghost work” make the internet seem smart. They perform high-tech piecework: flagging X-rated content, proofreading, designing engine parts, and much more. An estimated 8 percent of Americans have worked at least once in this “ghost economy,” and that number is growing. They usually earn less than legal minimums for traditional work, they have no health benefits, and they can be fired at any time for any reason, or none.

There are no labor laws to govern this kind of work, and these latter-day assembly lines draw in—and all too often overwork and underpay—a surprisingly diverse range of workers: harried young mothers, professionals forced into early retirement, recent grads who can’t get a toehold on the traditional employment ladder, and minorities shut out of the jobs they want. Gray and Suri also show how ghost workers, employers, and society at large can ensure that this new kind of work creates opportunity—rather than misery—for those who do it.

#160 jess on 03.09.22 at 2:05 pm

President Xi could be the saviour of this inhumanity but does he follow the blue book of Confucius?

#161 VladTor on 03.09.22 at 2:21 pm

Sanction news today from Russia:

1. The temporary shutdown of the McDonald’s restaurant chain in Russia will cost the company $50 million per month. This was reported on Wednesday by Reuters with reference to the company’s statement.

2. The exchange price for Regular-92 gasoline in the European part of Russia on Wednesday fell by almost 9%, and for Premium-95 gasoline-by almost 12%. This follows from the data of the St. Petersburg International Mercantile Exchange (SPIMEX).

The price of Ai-92 gasoline decreased by 8.8%, to 39,398 thousand rubles per ton, its cost fell below 40 thousand rubles per ton for the first time since May 6, 2020. Ai-95 gasoline fell in price by 11.85%, to 40.99 thousand rubles per ton, this type of fuel is also trading below 41 thousand rubles per ton for the first time since May 6, 2020.

The cost of summer diesel decreased by 0.97%, to 48.6 thousand rubles per ton, off-season diesel-by 3.3%, to 47.97 thousand rubles per ton. Winter diesel decreased in price by 3.7%, to 48.85 thousand rubles per ton.

Liquefied petroleum gases (LPG) fell in price by 11.9%, to 13.63 thousand rubles per ton. In the Urals and Siberia, where the main producers of LPG are located, the price of this type of fuel fell by almost 15%, to 10,459 thousand rubles per ton. The cost of heating oil decreased by 3.7%, to 29.77 thousand rubles per ton.

Now question for Mr. Trudo and Mrs. Freeland:

Why Canadian gasoline prices go UP…UP…UP every single day!

Canada under sanctions? From whom?

#162 Linda on 03.09.22 at 2:47 pm

#111 ‘Mill’ – last I checked, only women can get pregnant. Also last I checked, if anyone sneezes/coughs near a fertile female that doesn’t result in pregnancy. Wrong type of bodily fluids! The hijacking of the ‘my body, my choice’ meme by those who didn’t wish to vaccinate doesn’t equate to a double standard. Airborne viruses are as equal as one can get. They will infect anyone without regards to sex, race or political opinion:)

#163 IHCTD9 on 03.09.22 at 2:48 pm

#134 Knox09 on 03.09.22 at 10:21 am
@earthboundmisfit

Leslyn Lewis has Christian Values, well spoken, educated, humble and would be a great PM. Complete opposite of or current PM. Believing the Bible as the absolute truth and manual for living is not a hate crime, unfortunately for many in tolerant people they view in a such. The world in increasing hostile to the Christian Faith.
_______________

Muslims and Jews likely feel the same as you do these days. Just remember that your religious freedom depends on others freedom of religion or rejection thereof. Trust me, you wouldn’t want it any other way.

#164 Linda on 03.09.22 at 2:50 pm

#111 ‘Mill’ – last I checked, only women can get pregnant. Also last I checked, if anyone sneezes/coughs near a fertile female that doesn’t result in pregnancy. Wrong type of bodily fluids! The hijacking of the ‘my body, my choice’ meme by those who didn’t wish to vaccinate doesn’t equate to a double standard, unless one considers that not a few of those vehemently against being vaccinated ‘against their will’ are perfectly fine with enforcing rules that prevent abortions. Double standard indeed, let alone the irony of the phrase ‘Choose Life’. Airborne viruses are as equal as one can get. They will infect anyone without regards to sex, race or political opinion:)

#165 chalkie on 03.09.22 at 5:28 pm

I hope Canada continues to accept Ukranians as many as want to come to our beautiful conuntry, its most likely going to be 50/50 on who want to stay or return and rebuild their beautiful homeland, but you are all welcome.

Real Estate: For us already Canadaians, Unfortunally for some of us, the interest rates will rise and cause havoc of how to afford once our mortages come due, but for other’s we need the interest to build our savings back up for retirement, the higher the interest rates, the better off for retirement people who rely on an income.
My past History experiences tell me, the Millennials will get hurt the most, not only seeing their home deflated and looking for mortage lenders to loan more than their home is worth (good luck with that), all while Mom and Dad is still owed a small fortune for advancing the upfront money, “money” it will be a long-long time, before they get paid, if ever they get paid at all?

#166 Hurtin' Albertan on 03.09.22 at 8:02 pm

Some hope for Ukraine:

So many Canadian fighters in Ukraine, they have their own battalion:
https://nationalpost.com/news/world/exclusive-so-many-canadian-fighters-in-ukraine-they-have-their-own-battalion-source-says

Russia was expected to quickly grab air superiority, but so far that hasn’t happened:
https://www.cbc.ca/news/world/russia-ukraine-poland-air-superiority-supremacy-1.6377300

Turkish drones and stinger missiles are helping keep the Russians at bay.

Canadian air-strike tech appears to be playing important role in Ukraine’s fight against Russia
https://www.theglobeandmail.com/politics/article-canadian-air-strike-targeting-gear-appears-to-be-playing-supporting/

Opinion: Almost two weeks in, it’s clear Russia won’t take Kyiv and won’t likely win the war Putin might well be asking how it has come to this, writes U.S. lieutenant-general (retired) Ben Hodges
https://nationalpost.com/opinion/opinion-putins-campaign-is-a-logistical-nightmare-based-on-flawed-assumptions

and some reason for worry:

Chornobyl ‘radiation leaks imminent’ after power is cut off. The UN nuclear watchdog said the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant, now under Russian control, has also stopped transmitting data to its headquarters:
https://nationalpost.com/news/ukraine-calls-for-ceasefire-to-repair-power-line-to-chernobyl-nuclear-plant

#167 Satori on 03.09.22 at 9:19 pm

#145 Ponzius Pilatus on 03.09.22 at 11:22 am
Donate to the rifle association!
—————————————–
I literally laughed out loud!! Now THAT was Funny!

#168 the jaguar on 03.10.22 at 10:18 am

@109 Dharma Bum

Full sun and warm next week. Bring your sunscreen for the ski hill.

#169 pPrasseur on 03.10.22 at 10:41 am

#72 Greg – Can anyone tell me why our dollar has decoupled from the price of a barrel of oil? I’ve yet to see any valid reason for this.

I’ve been wondering about that too. I guess it is (as usual) due to a combination of reasons, not necessarily in order:

Canada is no longer perceived as a growing and committed oil and gas producer, not surprising with a central government that wants to “decarbonize” the economy, investments are way down and so many projects and pipelines have been cancelled. Add the cancellation of Keystone by Biden, a much bigger deal than reported by the local anti-Trump medias…

Despite that oil is likely still helping (just not as much as it used to) the CAD, which would sink like a stone otherwise.

Weak CAD might reflect markets moving to the “safety” of the USD because they sense a recession is coming. Very likely.

Lastly markets maybe are beginning to see how truly weak fundamentals (real productivity) of the Canadian economy really are (sure the banks do well when people borrow like there is to tomorrow), a sort of house of cards with growth based on debt and unsustainably high immigration.

CAD value is like other Fiat currency based on confidence, as a small independent currency the CAD is very vulnerable IMO.