What we know

Don’t misinterpret the headlines. Never assume you know what’s about to occur. You don’t. I don’t. As my portfolio-manager buddy Doug wrote here over the weekend, neither does he.

So going to cash is extreme. Selling into a storm is rash. Trying to avoid bad days but missing the recovery seriously nips your wealth. In short, harness your emotions. During times like these, they’re your enemy.

Let’s review what we know.

War has inflated commodities. I gassed up outside Toronto Sunday morning. The premium stuff was $2.12 a liter. There’s probably more coming. If/when Russia’s crude exports are suspended or blocked there will be consequences. “There remains risk that prices climb even further if sanctions are expanded to include energy trade,” says RBC, “or if Russia withholds exports in retaliation for existing sanctions and the West’s support for Ukraine. Russia is Europe’s largest oil and gas supplier.”

WTI was trading at $116 a barrel as I stood at the pump, up 7.5% and  on its way (some swear) to surpass the $140 that heralded the dawn of the last recession. (Oil has not exceeded $100 in eight years.) Watch commodities. Not just energy, but food stocks. Ukraine is the breadbasket of Europe, and our Canadian farmers just went through drought and poor yields. So this means…

Inflation is baked in. The CBs erred months ago in assuming higher prices were just Covid’s tale. It’s far more than pent-up demand and pandemic WFH cash being unleased on a wonky supply chain, that have pushed prices higher. The Putin war has cemented in a lengthy period of systemically augmenting costs. The supply chain in Europe is now seriously screwed. Energy disruptions and cancelled/busted pipelines mean years of shortages. Arable land is being made fallow.

Says CIBC: “An increase in energy prices isn’t the only inflationary impact of the Russia-Ukraine conflict. The two countries account for roughly one-quarter of global wheat and barley exports and 14% of corn exports. Russia is also a major supplier of some base metals and fertilizers. Higher prices for these commodities will add to already-elevated inflation across advanced economies. Food and energy together represent 20-25% of CPI baskets and are currently contributing more than 2 ppts to headline inflation in Canada, the US, UK and euro area.”

And remember, it will cost tens (or hundreds) of billions to finance and rebuild when the Russians are now blowing up. Thus…

Interest rates will keep rising. CBs have as a main goal, price stability. US inflation, now at 7.5%, could jump a point or two, just about guaranteeing the Fed has to be aggressive in fighting the erosion of capital. Five hikes this year, starting next week. Maybe six. And three more in 2022 for the BoC. Perhaps four. Money will keep moving into the safety of bonds. Prices up. Unless there’s a recession…

Russia and Europe will be victims. Ukraine is toast, economically. The devastation is as widespread as it is sad. That society has been shattered for a generation or two in the space of a dozen days. This will hurt Europe. Meanwhile it’s hard to see how Russia comes out of this without negative growth in its GDP, broken trade relationships, an impoverished citizenry, discredited leadership, 20% interest rates, junk bonds and being starved of foreign investment capital. Russian recession, for sure. Probably worse. But this also means…

Canada benefits. Did you notice on Friday how Bay Street was up when Wall Street was down? The TSX at 21,400 is  barely below its high of late 2021 while the Dow has lost 9% since hitting a record on January 4th. Western Canadian Select (WCS) – the stuff they churn out in Alberta – was trading at $102 a barrel on Sunday. Incredible. No wonder the province just announced a budget surplus and a new pony for everyone.

Yes, volatility is up. TD’s financial stress index is right back at Covid-19 levels. War sucks. The images of Ukrainian bombing victims and refugees are heart rendering. “Barring a regime change in Moscow,” says CIBC, “Russia will be a pariah state, and that portends a return to some version of a Soviet-era cold war in its relations with other countries.” This is far from over. Putin’s evil and he could set in motion a tragic set of dominoes.

But as Doug wrote, selling assets in the fog of war is reckless. Not having a diversified portfolio, with a nice little nest of maple, has proven unwise. Running to cash when that asset is devaluing (my fill-up cost $160, and I drive no truck) gets you nowhere. So, turn off CNN (and BNN, of course) and stick with the plan.

As for real estate, you can bet all of the above will shovel more emotional money into overpriced listings and encourage higher debt in coming weeks. But interest rates go up again on April 13th. So, cool your jets.

Glory to Ukraine.

About the picture: “This is Smudge, our English Shepherd,” writes Tracey, “goofy, fierce, loveable, exasperating, adorable and essential. He passed away this past July at almost 13. We have no heart for another as yet, but in seeing the photos of your beautiful new pup, makes me think it could be possible one day. Thank you for your advice and wit; we read your blog every day and skim most of the commenters, most of whom frankly drive me up the wall. :)”

168 comments ↓

#1 LH on 03.06.22 at 2:44 pm

Somebody mentioned Berkshire the other day.
BRKA and BRKB are 90%+ of my stock portfolio (the rest is mostly unvested stock of my employer). Only started buying in 2016, and now own >1 basis point of this wonderful company.

I will buy and hold as I have done so with my half dozen C01/C02 SFHs :)

I have a very simple investment rule… if you find something good, never sell. As Charlie Munger says all you need to find are a couple winners in a lifetime to attain financial independence.

#2 DON on 03.06.22 at 2:46 pm

#113 conan on 03.06.22 at 1:58 pm
Beginning to think the invasion was part of a long term plan to initiate a major global calamity after a series of major global calamities.

Nation’s are already stretched out financially because of the global financial crisis and the pandemic. Add in inflation pressures on food and oil, as well as commodities, and it is easy there is some higher level thinking though going on here.

No idea why the Russian military is performing so poorly, but that is an unexpected surprise and benefit for the west.
Where the hell is the Russian air force?

************

Strike when your adversaries are weak. Putin is a calculating ‘mad man’. If so, then maybe he’s holding back so that there is limited damage and deaths. I don’t see a scorched earth policy at the moment. Is the russian column still out of gas or now it is the mud and/or bad tires accordinging to western legacy media headlines. Does anyone know what the Russians are demanding? This is a rather large hostage situation. Is the West more afraid of the oil shock then concerned with the fate of civilians in Ukraine. West and East Ukraine divided down the middle iron curtain up. China starting to talk more about self sufficiency as the US encourage them to join the sanctions against Russia. Pompeo going to Taiwan on his own time to launch his Presidential aspirations.

Another hot summer on the way compounding problems. When does airline fuel jump in price?

#3 LH on 03.06.22 at 2:46 pm

Oops typo… should have read >1/8 basis point
(Mix of BRKA for me and BRKB for the wife, kids, and family).

#4 Peter in Toronto on 03.06.22 at 2:52 pm

I feel like the world is sleep walking into nuclear annihilation. Is there a portfolio that’s immune to the total global collapse of food and fuel production?

And what’s glorious about Ukraine? They were Hitler’s most enthusiastic Eastern European allies. Most of the death camps were staffed with Ukrainians from the province of what was called Galicia back then (Western Ukraine these days).
The Jewish population was exterminated by willing Western Ukrainian auxiliary policemen, the most notable one being Babi Yar:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Babi_Yar

A few days ago, extreme right wing elements within the Ukrainian SBU (state security) murdered one of their own members of parliament:
https://en.interfax.com.ua/news/general/807707.html

Is that normal in a democracy?

BIG yikes from me Garth.

#5 TurnerNation on 03.06.22 at 2:56 pm

Let’s revisit a prediction of mine from 2020 I’d hammered on. I knew then that global WW3 has been kicked off. The timelines became clearer.

(How do I do it? Easy. History. A failing of our global rulers is their limited playbook. Same old same old stuff.)

“#124 TurnerNation on 05.13.20 at 7:27 pm -Weeks ago I wrote here what is a likely ending for USA.
1. How to instantly kick start the economy? (Proven historical method)
2. How to deal with millions of young people out of work/school in September due to lack of money and jobs, and when the Free monthly handouts stop (else there will be civil unrest)?
Answer is two words: War Draft.”

“#152 TurnerNation on 07.09.20 at 8:42 pm
September I strongly sense will be the next stage. CERB ends, no jobs as the government has ordered you shut – you are ‘non essential workers’ to them. They already said this. The choices will be bread lines, rioting, or war draft? History repeats.”



#126 crowdedelevatorfartz on 03.05.22 at 7:35 am

^^ T2’s handlers would even know he’s over his head. Maybe he can don traditional Ukraine costume and perform them a dance? I wish I were joking…

#6 canuck on 03.06.22 at 2:56 pm

Unless there’s a recession…
_____________________________________________

When doesn’t a recession follow inflation? Prices keep rising but wages don’t keep pace. People will be more concerned about maintaining their standard of living with less buying power.

At this pace, Alberta’s surplus will likely be closer to 1 billion than the 500 million projected on 70.00 oil. Saskatchewan will be smiling too with better oil prices and there should be strong demand for potash and oh yeah… wheat. Last time wheat went over 10.00 a bushel, we had a recession.

#7 Meh on 03.06.22 at 2:57 pm

Hi Garth,

To your credit, you have always correctly been quick to belittle the CP lie inflation stats coming from the fountains of misinformation. Shadow stats now claiming it is closer to 20 percent. What is your estimation?

#8 Linda on 03.06.22 at 2:57 pm

‘Smudge’ looks like he was a very happy dog:)

I did notice the TSX was up & put that increase down to the fact Canada is a commodity rich economy. I also agree inflation is going to run ‘hot’ for the remainder of 2022 at the very least.

The Old Farmer’s Almanac is forecasting a cool, wet spring for the Prairies. IF that occurs there is at least the possibility that a decent crop may be had this coming year. Fingers crossed.

While pipelines are an issue, Canada does have the potential to be able to supply oil & gas to an energy starved Europe. I agree we need to continue to pursue the development of alternate sources that are environmentally less damaging, but given that demand far outstrips what existing methods can supply I think the world will continue to rely on oil & gas for quite some time to come.

#9 the Jaguar on 03.06.22 at 3:02 pm

Holy doodle. ‘Out of the frying pan and into the fire’ barely covers the train wreck making a beeline for Pleasantville. Heads were snapped to attention over supply chain issues when Covid arrived on the scene, but the next few months might present a Godzilla-like tsunami of shortages, hand wringing, and pearl clutching.

Get out your manual on how to ‘improvise, adapt, and overcome’ peeps. Maybe look up the meaning of “Quantitative Tightening” while you are at it. As for real estate, here is something mused by Doug Porter, who is smarter than Benny Tal:

“……… the Canadian housing market has just seen bigger increases than ever witnessed through any two years of the great housing bubble of the late 1980s. Just as a reminder, that episode ultimately saw the overnight rate climb to 14% to quell inflation and bring the market to heel. Prices then went into the wilderness for a decade”.

Goes without saying that those who live a simple self sustainable existence and avoid debt may remain unscathed. All the peeps with rose coloured glasses are in for a shock. Certainly they were well warned.

Meanwhile, back at the ranch in good old Alberta things are indeed lookin’ up. Oil and gas, strong agricultural industry, hardworking folks. It should be the best Calgary Stampede in years.

#10 conan on 03.06.22 at 3:07 pm

RE: 2
That Russian column heading to Kiev is a mystery. One possibility, there is a nasty surprise waiting for Russia if they get into Kiev in a major way.
Use your imagination what that surprise is, but for me, it is obvious.

#11 X on 03.06.22 at 3:16 pm

I don’t mind paying the higher gas prices. I see it as our way to donate to the Ukranian efforts by cutting off Russian oil sales.

The BoC/Fed are way behind on fighting inflation. I wouldn’t be surpised if there was a .5 rate increase once the Ukraine/Russia conflict is over. Rates may go up more and longer than some suspect.

#12 I don’t know on 03.06.22 at 3:26 pm

Well put.

During times of crisis, every armchair economist and geopolitical strategist with an abnormally cynical, deranged, view of the world gets really loud. Of course when things calm down, they are nowhere to be found. That, or we hear who rebounds are just a delay of the “inevitable crash that’s coming”.

Ignore all these extreme views.

Nobody knows what’s coming, especially someone who says they do.

The goal: preserve and build wealth. As our host has explained today, even in times of fear, there are assets that increase in value. Which ones will they be? You don’t know, that’s why you hold as many assets as you can in a balanced and diversified way (including real estate -if you can afford it).

IDK

#13 Flop… on 03.06.22 at 3:41 pm

Everyone at work says I need to get rid of my gas guzzler.

I tell them I can afford it because I don’t have any kids.

Anyway, everyone has been blabbing about how the price of used cars has exploded, so last night in between laughing at Saturday Night Live’s two funny jokes per episode, I had a look around.

Richmond Auto Mall only had around 5 trade ins going for under 10k and you can imagine what they looked like.

This blog has had some cracker own versus lease arguments over the years, I recall one time, the guy from Wisconsin,Boom, who was trying to mentor me, got into it with Garth, and one of the few times he seemed exasperated blurted out “It’s a damn car, Garth.”

Maybe I need to revolutionize the transport industry.

I don’t need to lease a car, I need to lease someone’s gas, instead.

I know my vehicle won’t last forever, it’s 3 decades old, but I’m still in love with it despite its drinking problems…

M47BC
M64WI

#14 Dave on 03.06.22 at 3:44 pm

The east has already built their own version of the Swift money transfer system.

The digital currency will be backed by gold.

Russia China India Africa and Middle East have Tonnes of gold.

Check Mate.

BTW…if only the east had one more the knock out sanction punch. Dump Nato Real Estate. BOOOOOOOM. That’s where China will do their part.

#15 Ian on 03.06.22 at 3:45 pm

Hybrids, not EVs are next to see increase in prices!

#16 DON on 03.06.22 at 3:48 pm

#10 conan on 03.06.22 at 3:07 pm
RE: 2
That Russian column heading to Kiev is a mystery. One possibility, there is a nasty surprise waiting for Russia if they get into Kiev in a major way.
Use your imagination what that surprise is, but for me, it is obvious.

********

On day 7 of Omicron…my thinking cap is lacking focus. But the thought of fierce resistance has crossed my mind. Something is up.

#17 Follow the money! on 03.06.22 at 3:51 pm

Pipelines to the rescue. Both Pembina and Enbridge will become that much more popular for the next 2 years. Setting new highs every week. Never too late to join the party. For those that are hesitant, realize that pipelines are tariff based utilities, so they are not nearly as impacted negatively should oil prices retreat..which they won’t any time soon.

Besides, KKR, one of the world’s largest alternative asset and private equity companies in the world, just joined forces with Pembina.

Follow the smart money or be left paying $100 to fill your buggy every week.

#18 earthboundmisfit on 03.06.22 at 3:53 pm

Jason Kenny is going to piss it all away.

#19 Midnight’s on 03.06.22 at 3:57 pm

I bet people are missing Trump now, 2.02 for gas, lol. He’ll be back in 2024.

#20 Hedge Hog on 03.06.22 at 3:58 pm

But as Doug wrote, selling assets in the fog of war is reckless. Not having a diversified portfolio, with a nice little nest of maple, has proven unwise. Running to cash when that asset is devaluing (my fill-up cost $160, and I drive no truck) gets you nowhere. So, turn off CNN (and BNN, of course) and stick with the plan.
_____________________

Ever hear of hedging your bets? Hedge funds?
Maybe now is the time to take a few dollars off the table.?

#21 Damifino on 03.06.22 at 4:02 pm

#111 crowdedelevatorfartz

Starting a war where thousands of civilians and your own soldiers die seems “rational” to you?

Soldiers and civilians on both sides will die in war. That’s the nature of the animal. That fact alone has never prevented armed aggression by national leaders who believe themselves to be in the right. So, let’s again reiterate what YOU yourself said:

He repeatedly warned western leaders not to allow countries bordering Russia to join NATO. Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania joined after nervously watching Putins’ violent excursions in other former USSR satellite states.
The final straw? Ukraine. A country which extends deep into the underbelly of Russia. Another potential NATO country? Not on his watch.

So yes, Putin is obviously a wicked, war mongering, hard-ass son-of-a-bitch. No argument. (Good thing I’m a Canadian. That kind of talk would get me a free flight out a 4th floor window in Russia)

But that doesn’t make a convincing case for pathological irrationally. But it could yet come. Paranoia and obsession is what the German dictator descended into in the later stages of WWII when he faced certain defeat.

#22 TurnerNation on 03.06.22 at 4:17 pm

Welcome back LH. Have you been speaking with Nonna Nicola lately? ;-)
The house she go uppa in GTA, GVA. Buya the land?
Thanks for the reminder on BRKA/B. I always come here seeking alpha with zero hedge.
Even Faron drops some good options data.


In Soviet Kanada house own you.


— OIL Prices = control over travel and feeding. Soon to be (again) for the wealthy people only?
Have you noted the new restaurant prices? What was $20 now is $30. Already. It was blamed on “CV supply chain”. Soon, $40? But this is a WW3 supply chain thing and it isn’t over. We know our rulers do not want us eating out in restaurants and socializing, and small business independence. They want us at home, glued to the Telescreens in horror

A push toward electric cars? Zero infrastructure. Not one condo in my area has plug in outlets in the parking garages. Many condo corps even ban the use of common area electricity for your own car.
Any charging stations in your area? Zip here. So how we gonna travel. Oh. Maybe that’s the point

#23 Søren Angst on 03.06.22 at 4:18 pm

Glory to Ukraine.

My Threadbare Portfolio doing well. Modest stock price gains of +2.3% past 30 days. And dividends with a +22.7% overall dividend yield in Feb.

I agree with staying vested.

And, yeah oil.

[Once an AB boy, always an AB boy even in Italia]

———————–

#4 Peter in Toronto

Should that not be…

Петр в Москве

Similar salutations from me ala Ukrainian soldiers shelled on an island by a Russian warship.

#24 Søren Angst on 03.06.22 at 4:48 pm

Glory to Ukraine.

Some of what the banks are saying about the EU is premature and really is on a country by country basis.

For example, energy savings are taken very seriously here in Italia. Compare per capita energy usage of Italia vs. OINK OINK Canada and the USA:

https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/per-capita-energy-use?tab=chart&country=CAN~USA~ITA

Still, we have only 1 year of Oil & Gas reserves in Italia. That buys us badly needed time at the moment (click on Oil and Gas links below the LHS chart).

https://www.worldometers.info/electricity/italy-electricity/

Not a bind yet in Italia. Give it a year. And with Tyranol Putin…who knows?

———————

Pastascript:

Italia gets little grain from the Ukraine, most of it from: France, with 350,000 tons in 2015, and Austria with 176,000 tons. Hungary exported 165,000 tons to Italy in the first half of 2016.

BTW, the Hungarian grain is the BEST and used for Al Dente pasta here in Italia. North American grain used to make past…you can boil for over an hour and it will NEVER be Al Dente.

Protein content of canadian all purpose flour = 13.3%
Spadoni Gran Mugnano for pasta = 11.5%

Used to make my own pasta in Canada and still do here in Italia, it’s easy, and BIG difference.

Moral of the story:

We have enough grain to make our delicious pasta. Buy Italian better than N. American chewing gum pasta.

Glory to Italia.

#25 Kirk on 03.06.22 at 4:50 pm

Just three minutes ago: US considering banning Russian oil imports.

Gonna get pricier.

#26 Søren Angst on 03.06.22 at 5:04 pm

Glory to Ukraine.

Looks like speculation ongoing here in the EU esp. with Wheat, Nickel and oddly Sugar*:

https://www.google.com/finance/markets/gainers

All highly leveraged ETFs.

The ETFS 3X Daily Long Wheat ETC did 19.5% today and about 154% in the past 5 days.

Too risky for me.

——————

* Sweet tooth people in for a big $ surprise soon enough…

https://www.google.com/finance/quote/3SUL:BIT

#27 DON on 03.06.22 at 5:17 pm

Biden Caught Between Inflation and Calls to Ban Russian Oil
Wall street Journal

…….

Will the Ukraine crisis and added inflation provide cover for more dramtic rate increases to quell the homefront inflation and ween off Russian oil? The lesser of two evils?

#28 Søren Angst on 03.06.22 at 5:23 pm

I think the Russian people are starting to get fed up with Putin.

A lot of protests today all over Russia, and thousands in jail.
https://twitter.com/BBCNews/status/1500488056771645442

Russian Police heavy handed:
https://twitter.com/brewerov/status/1500465514577022981

Russia’s 2nd largest Internet Provider sanctioning CUT OFF its state-affiliated media outlets and bot propaganda networks:
https://mashable.com/article/cogent-communications-isp-russia-ukraine

https://mashable.com/article/cogent-communications-isp-russia-ukraine

————-

Ukrainian Farmers continue to be resourceful as ever at SANCTIONING & REPURPOSING? Russian War Equipment:

https://twitter.com/javelinNLAW/status/1500197738780278787
https://twitter.com/alburov/status/1500020272677666816
https://twitter.com/ua_industrial/status/1499811129652035586
https://twitter.com/COUPSURE/status/1500471567255576580

————-

Glory to Ukraine

#29 Loonie Cad on 03.06.22 at 5:26 pm

Commodity super bullrun is on. It bodes well for Canada; especially Alberta(budget surplus). Time to buy commodity stocks.

#30 Summertime on 03.06.22 at 5:27 pm

Inflation is and always was defined as increase in the money supply – M2 and corresponding increase in the prices of goods and services, as such it has steady averaged 8-10 % in the last decade or two, with increase of 15-25 % in each of the last 2 years.

The M2 statistics is available on the BoC web site.

Charlatan snake oil salesmen central bankers who define custom measures aka CPI and call it ‘inflation’ are just that, low grade charlatans.

Their blatant lies if not rebuffed will only lead to increased inflation and deeper credit crises.

How really do you ‘fight’ inflation of 10 – 15 %, it could be likely more, even 20 %/ with skyrocketing food and energy prices this year with 0.5 % interest rates?

Are these guys for real?

As soon as there are deeply negative double digit real interest rates, we are going deeper into the hole with the outcome clear – all destroying stagflation that evolves into severe inflationary depressions.

Why are not interest rates double digits already, considering the circumstances?

Where are the central bankers ‘tools’? A few increases of 0.25 % and that’s it?

Pathetic low grade thieves.

#31 millmech on 03.06.22 at 5:31 pm

#10 Conan
They are taking a strategy from the racist, insurrectionist, anti vaxxer, climate denier, Trumpster, trucker siege and will park their vehicles around the city and blare their horns, accordingly Ukraine will have to surrender.
Brought our great country to the brink of the collapse, imagine the fear of 400 covid comorbidity truckers keeping 1700 police officers at bay with just their horns, truly an awesome sight of strategic brilliance that will be taught in military academies around the world.

#32 G on 03.06.22 at 5:34 pm

DELETED

#33 Diamond Dog on 03.06.22 at 5:36 pm

#11 X on 03.06.22 at 3:16 pm

I thought that too initially, but the debt service on public debt is so high now relative to what can be offset with tax increases…

Pretty close to every other time inflation has popped (except for the odd marginal increase), CB’s raised rates and a recession follows. But the true order is m2 rises to which we see a 2 year lag (only exception to this i.e. inflation that I’ve seen was the 08′ bond market bailout, due to the massive erosion of personal wealth that followed the GFC) before inflation hits. Once inflation hits, CB’s raise rates and then a recession follows. So the order is m2, followed by inflation, CB’s raise rates and then recession.

The problem is, the U.S. (approx 125% debt to GDP) and Canada (118%) owe so much debt that raising rates substantially to fight off inflation jacks their debt service to unsustainable levels.

The whole idea behind CB’s raising rates to tame inflation is to suck money out of the supply or inflation erodes purchasing power for everyone. In other words, they raise rates until something breaks but in the year 2022 if CB’s raise rates beyond… say… 4%, they risk a break on the fiscal side. If that happens, we are looking at a currency debasement leading to hyperinflation.

Take for example high U.S. inflation in the 70’s with Govy Fed debt to GDP ratio’s in those days around 40%. At 40, CB’s could raise rates to double digits. Today? With Govy Fed debt to GDP ratio’s at 125%? They might be able to do a third of that. If something doesn’t break at 4%, then stagflation remains until it does.

Even after a recession is triggered, the fiscal nightmare remains meaning tax increases, austerity and at this point, definite restructuring of government bonds is baked in, unless the government of the day has no clue or everyone says hello to a currency debasement and likely hyperinflation (20%+) if a currency debasement was to occur with inflation nearing 10% where it is now and lets remind, the 7.5% inflation accounts for rents at 30% of the cost of living pegged at 3%. That’s just not realistic. With realistic inflation metrics, inflation is currently running in double digits. It will vary depending on the cities you live in, but it’s high.

So, we need to pick our poison, but hyperinflation is the worst of them all, by far. If we elect governments that don’t step up, hyperinflation is what we will get.

Who is hurt most by inflation is people with incomes that can’t be raised to offset. Pensioners living solely on govy pensions are most at risk. 20% of the adult population is pensioners in the U.S. with Canada likely mirroring these numbers. 40% of this 20% (8% of the adult population) is pension income only. Add some corporate defaults and disability pensions and you get the idea. 3 years go by of double digit inflation and 10% of the adult population dips below the poverty line, maybe extreme poverty line just with seniors alone. Add in a period of high unemployment and readers get what follows.

The TSX is the stock market to be in right now because its so commodity laden. But if the U.S. slips into recession, North American markets will reverse. It’s already begun in U.S. markets since November. So, commodities look strong for the rest of the year thanks to mad dog Putin. The timing of Canadian markets largely depends on how long sanctions last for, how long La Nina lasts for and when is the next U.S. recession…

Agricultural commodities will bounce back with the end of La Nina like conditions. One can follow this here:

https://climatereanalyzer.org/wx/DailySummary/#sstanom

Energy… it’s sounding like the U.S. is considering sanctions on energy. If Biden does, $140 oil is conservative. These sanctions could also last for years. The near term for most commodities is bright until just before the U.S. slides into recession. So, we watch the monthly indicators, stay tuned to war, pick the winners and hope as always, that it works out.

#34 Lord Garth of Izar on 03.06.22 at 5:37 pm

If Trump get re-elected, how long will it take for America to set their eyes on Canadian resources and invade?

More importantly, how long would it take for the government to fly enough foreign investors into the country to put up a meaningful resistance in order to protect their assets and housing investments?

#35 Michael in-north-york on 03.06.22 at 5:44 pm

#4 Peter in Toronto on 03.06.22 at 2:52 pm
===

List of war crimes and crimes against humanity committed by the Kremlin empire since the 1917 Communist revolution:

1920-1921 Tambov Uprising of the peasants in Russia. Suppressed by the Communist government with the use of chemical weapons.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tambov_Rebellion

1932-1933 Holodomor, a deliberately engineered famine in Ukraine and the nearby districts of Russia next to the Russia-Ukraine border. Death toll 3.5 million in Ukraine alone, plus an unknown number casualties in the Russia’s districts.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Holodomor

1940 Katyn massacre, a deliberate murder of the Polish prisoners of war.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Katyn_massacre

1956 Invasion of Hungary during the Hungarian anti-communist revolution.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hungarian_Revolution_of_1956

1979-1989 Invasion of Afganistan
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Soviet%E2%80%93Afghan_War

1994-1996 and 1999-2000 Two wars against the breakaway province of Chechnya, with a large number of civilian casualties.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/First_Chechen_War
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Second_Chechen_War

2022-? Invasion of Ukraine.

#36 Jeffardo Sauerkraut on 03.06.22 at 5:45 pm

Methinks Russia will rely heavily on China and India as trade partners . After the initial shock , they will be fine .
Canada , could seize the opportunity of high oil prices by pumping out more barrels (more money for the country) scrap the carbon tax( ,ore money in your pockets and lower inflation ) and build pipelines (full circle).There you go , energy independency ! We need a bold leader , with brains to fullfill this vision but. alas, Trudy does not fit the mold .

#37 dc on 03.06.22 at 5:46 pm

So I saw a copy of the newspaper yesterday and they were advertising big fancy cars and trucks. I’m wondering who is going to be silly enough to by a 6L V8 dodge charger right now? Like $20 of gas would last like 15 minutes in that thing.

#38 willworkforpickles on 03.06.22 at 5:55 pm

Europe will re-structure at breakneck speed.
Germany is about to construct 2 new ports to handle increased tanker shipments of LNG.
Other European countries such as Hungary and Poland have been constructing infrastructure and pipelines toward the west and south to end dependency on Russian oil and gas. Europe has enough coal and coal fired plants they can put back into use temporarily until enough renewable energy infrastructure can be built to start to ease back off coal. Pipeline construction is being considered from France and Spain to help supply eastern European countries.
The Russian invasion of Ukraine has created a turning point that will bolster Europe to reorganize and militarize eventually reaching superpower status.

With so many fickle bat-shit crazy rank amateurs playing the markets, there will never be any level of fundamental rhyme or reason within it .
Too unpredictable, hold the fort with the right stocks = reasonable advice.

I have to add here, there are those having discovered the fickle nature of the markets whereby little to nothing can accurately be known in advance , also group where the economy is going in with this same thinking as well .

Those who know nothing outside of outdated mainstream banter anyway.

It would appear through their own ineptitude, they haven’t the ability to conduct any kind of real research of their own. Research the kind that can keep one on the cutting edge of the latest breaking developments well before the mainstream dullards ever get a whiff of them.

And since they don’t have clue where the economy is headed themselves because nary a source they ever consult does either…then it becomes plain pure and simple to them as it does with all the rest of the fools like them that nobody knows.

And so to them , nobody can know where the economy is going to simply justify their not knowing.

Shallow…to say the least , real shallow.

#39 Upenuff on 03.06.22 at 6:07 pm

so the question is….
have $20K sitting here doing nothing,

does one one buy an enbridge, suncorp or pembina and see where it goes?

Upenuff

#40 crowdedelevatorfartz on 03.06.22 at 6:16 pm

@#21 Damfino

I think the jury is still out on Putin’s sanity…..
Lets give him a month of casualty numbers and a bloody stalemate in Ukraine where the Russian army controls the cities and everywhere else is “indian country”.

Garth.
If gas, food and commodity shipping costs continue their inflationary “hockey stick” momentum along with wages……

Are there much more drastic interest rate hikes in the foreseeable future?
A quarter per cent rate hike every few months seems like a dog trying to pee out a forest fire.

NO ONE I work with even seemed to notice this rate hike.
Drowned out in the media circus that is the war.

Could the Bank of Canada blink, and start hammering us with Half percent rate hikes later this year if prices continue to rise?
Just to keep the Canuck buck on an even keel?

#41 refugees on 03.06.22 at 6:18 pm

DELETED

#42 willworkforpickles on 03.06.22 at 6:24 pm

#33 DD
Wait till the – we don’t know anything because we never know anything and because we never do or ever will … you can’t possibly know anything either, types read your post.

#43 Satori on 03.06.22 at 6:25 pm

Ditto, enjoyed your insight Garth!

#13 Flop… on 03.06.22 at 3:41 pm

A friend of mine is waiting for a leased vehicle… its a almost a year wait til she gets her truck.
What on earth are the numbers and letters many of you put under your post MBC47? MWIC42? What does that mean?

#44 Observer on 03.06.22 at 6:32 pm

#34 Lord Garth of Izar on 03.06.22 at 5:37 pm
If Trump get re-elected, how long will it take for America to set their eyes on Canadian resources and invade?

^^^^^^^^^^^^

Certain Republicans already stated that rather than get involved with the Ukraine invasion, USA should support the Trucker convoy and “liberate” Canadians.

#45 Observer on 03.06.22 at 6:36 pm

#19 Midnight’s on 03.06.22 at 3:57 pm
I bet people are missing Trump now, 2.02 for gas, lol. He’ll be back in 2024.

^^^^^^^^^^^^^
Hopefully not, because the cons greatly outweigh pros such as lower gas prices.

#46 NOSTRADAMUS on 03.06.22 at 6:37 pm

WAKE UP A LITTLE SUSIE, WAKE UP.
People do not understand demand destruction, credit destruction, or wealth destruction.
People have been living in a fantasy world and have no idea how much stocks and hard assets such as housing are likely to crash. April 2020 was a disregarded wake up call. Consequently the demand destruction from a stock market collapse will be breathtaking.
Russia will get the blame just like Covid-19 got the blame, but the economy was long in the tooth and well on its way to a recession anyway.
Logic would indicate, that if the Fed had the power to stop recessions there would never be any. The same applies to the bank of Japan and the ECB.
With inflation reportedly running at 7.5%, please explain how a .25% rise in the interest rate is going to wrestle this beast to the ground. Pure fantasy.
The reality is, a rip your face off recession, fueled by collapsing demand, a liquidity crunch, and fading stimulus effects is coming right up. Inflation sure doesn’t help. The man with cash and no debt will be a king. For the love of God, wake up a little Susie, wake up.

#47 Grunt on 03.06.22 at 6:40 pm

Putin needs autarky and a Jhalmar Schacht to play dominoes.

#48 Uncle Thomas on 03.06.22 at 6:41 pm

Despite all the blatant propaganda, this war will soon be over. Accurate reports show that the Ukrainian forces are abandoning their tanks and other weapons and running for their lives before Russian forces. Their comedian leader put in office by the Victoria Nuland and the CIA is about to abscond with his stolen loot and that will be the end of it.

#49 LH, for the win on 03.06.22 at 6:50 pm

#1 LH on 03.06.22 at 2:44 pm
Somebody mentioned Berkshire the other day.
BRKA and BRKB are 90%+ of my stock portfolio (the rest is mostly unvested stock of my employer). Only started buying in 2016, and now own >1 basis point of this wonderful company.

I will buy and hold as I have done so with my half dozen C01/C02 SFHs :)
//////////////////

Good to see you LH.
My god didn’t your C1, C3 properties collapse in value?
sarc/

So did you finally decide to retire?

PH.

#50 DonQuixote on 03.06.22 at 6:52 pm

Re – Emergencies Act

So, what is the legality of the actions that the Trudeau government carried out under this Act known and unknown, dur8ng those 7-8 days after he invoked it, given that it never got passed by the Senate?

And in what sense could those financial measures Freeland announced would be permanent be permanent considering the same?

#51 When Will They Raise Rates? on 03.06.22 at 6:52 pm

#5 TurnerNation on 03.06.22 at 2:56 pm

2. How to deal with millions of young people out of work/school in September due to lack of money and jobs, and when the Free monthly handouts stop (else there will be civil unrest)?
Answer is two words: War Draft.”

————–

What about the unvaccinated in that scenario? Just curious how that would work since the military requires it?

#52 willworkforpickles on 03.06.22 at 6:55 pm

#30 Summertime

On double digit interest rates…

When the US dollar is no longer the primary world’s reserve currency , double digit interest rates will work themselves into reality.
There will be no more desperately needed money printing/new debt creation without them then.

Aside from this, some have been on the great reset nonsense again.
Sure a reset will come well before any world totalitarian great reset ever will.
A reset by way of government and individual default and widespread mortgage default and bankruptcy’s.
Future absolutely unavoidable high, even double digit interest rates guarantee that many debts will be reset through foreclosure and bankruptcy. And they will owe nothing and own nothing and be very unhappy.

#53 When Will They Raise Rates? on 03.06.22 at 7:00 pm

Re draft, what about all the Russian Canadians? How can they be asked to kill their own people?

#54 Peter in Toronto on 03.06.22 at 7:01 pm

@35 Michael in-north-york

Well that’s nice and all, but I’m familiar with history and most of those wars were pursued by the Soviet Union, which Ukraine was a core part of. Weren’t Soviet leaders Khrushchev, Gorbachev and Brezhnev all of Ukrainian origin? Just to name a few.

So I’m confused. Are you adding more to my long list of loathsome acts by the joint Russo-Ukrainian peoples against this world? I belong to neither group….

#55 The Original Jake on 03.06.22 at 7:06 pm

Do you see our dollar strengthening against the US$ as energy prices climb? So far our dollar hasn’t followed the move up with oil while 10 years ago we were on par with the US dollar.

#56 VladTor on 03.06.22 at 7:10 pm

Amazing!

He has good sense of humor!

Former Italian Minister of Industry, Trade and Crafts, Minister without Portfolio for European Affairs Paolo Savona wrote on Twitter: ‘I was convinced that sanctions were imposed against Russia, until I stopped at a gas station’

https://virtualbrest.ru/news101806.php

#57 Yukon Elvis on 03.06.22 at 7:21 pm

#48 Uncle Thomas on 03.06.22 at 6:41 pm
Despite all the blatant propaganda, this war will soon be over. Accurate reports show that the Ukrainian forces are abandoning their tanks and other weapons and running for their lives before Russian forces.
+++++++++++
Source of said accurate reports? The opposite seems to be true.

#58 WTF on 03.06.22 at 7:23 pm

Also did the premium here in Van Sat $2.18 ish, now up to $2.35 today. (A small Hatchback ) $.73 is tax. Natives not happy, another Carbon Tax increase April 1. That should help calm things down….

Which poses the question for the eco warriors and their best friends the Oil Cartel. If Premium is better for the environment why does it cost more?

Lots of open houses in DT Van today. The spring market has commenced.

Stove kicked the bucket last week in our rental, cant get parts, supply chain apparently, Got a new one, installed in 2 days.

CB’s and politicians are now between a rock and a hard place due to their almost criminal inaction, in particular RE.

Life is getting interesting.

#59 T on 03.06.22 at 7:24 pm

#48 Uncle Thomas on 03.06.22 at 6:41 pm
Despite all the blatant propaganda, this war will soon be over. Accurate reports show that the Ukrainian forces are abandoning their tanks and other weapons and running for their lives before Russian forces. Their comedian leader put in office by the Victoria Nuland and the CIA is about to abscond with his stolen loot and that will be the end of it.

————

Nice try.

Except it’s Russian military abandoning their vehicles in droves. Can’t blame them when they are hungry, tired, and the killing is affecting their consciences.

Hopefully your leader is taken out by any means necessary before more innocents are killed in this last flex of a madman.

Glory to Ukraine.

#60 Ponzius Pilatus on 03.06.22 at 7:30 pm

Some idiots in the Republican Party are asking the Government to supply Poland with fighter planes.
That would spell WWIII for sure.
Glad they are not in Government.

#61 Elon Fanboy on 03.06.22 at 7:33 pm

I think we’re witnessing the start of a global food war.

China and Russia have restricted exports of plant based fertilizer. Between them they provide 30% of global fertilizer.

Add in the lost exports from Belarus and Ukraine, and that’s 66% of world fertilizer gone.

That’s a big effin problem.

#62 Ustabe on 03.06.22 at 7:36 pm

#43 Satori on 03.06.22 at 6:25 pm

~~~~~~~~~

What on earth are the numbers and letters many of you put under your post MBC47? MWIC42? What does that mean?

Male, British Columbia, 47 (years old). And so forth.

So M64WI is male, 64 years old, Wisconsin.

Me? I’m RWM74BC

#63 Ponzius Pilatus on 03.06.22 at 7:36 pm

2.12 premium for Dr. Garth in Tonto.
And 2.09 regular for the Plebs in Surrey.
I can hear the pitchforks being sharpened.

#64 Yukon Elvis on 03.06.22 at 7:48 pm

The Kyiv [email protected]·8m⚡️
Hacking group Anonymous interrupts Russian state TV programs with footage of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine and an anti-war message.

It claims to have accessed TV channels “Russia 24”, “Channel 1”, “Moscow 24”, & streaming services Wink and Ivi.

#65 Up and Away on 03.06.22 at 7:49 pm

Real Estate – prices will keep rising. Why?

400,000 immigrants or 1%+ population increase every year.

$1trillion in financial system all mucked up due to cancel Russia actions.

And you won’t think that won’t hit the global system?

Wait until Russia starts to hit back in kind. You thinks stock markets and credit markets are stable then?

#66 Flop… on 03.06.22 at 7:50 pm

#43 Satori on 03.06.22 at 6:25 pm

#13 Flop… on 03.06.22 at 3:41 pm

What on earth are the numbers and letters many of you put under your post MBC47? MWIC42? What does that mean?

/////////////////////////////////////

Well, that could take a bit to explain, Mrs Flop is taking her extended Sunday shower, so I guess I’ll just start tapping away and see where it leads me.

Some of this is difficult to explain, but they say the best place to start is the beginning.

Back in late 2015 on this blog, there was the monthly spat in comments sections between the Boomers and the Millies, myself being GenX just grabbed a beer and thought this’ll be good.

Anyway as things disintegrated ,as they usually do, and people started throwing barbs, the was a lot of people spending a lot of time explaining where they were from and how old they were, and the like.

I had noticed the same characters had written similar posts during the previous month’s spat and thought of a way to shorten all that with a code.

I called it a GAP Code, Gender, Age , Province, the Liberals will probably make it illegal after the next election, well, because, you know the gender part is getting touchy for some.

Anyway we can’t Adobe sign our posts,yet, so it was also a sort of blog signature, this is me, and I believe the information contained in my post to be true to my knowledge, sort of thing.

I think my first ever GAP code was M41BC, six years ago, some posters have moved provinces since then, I’ve stayed a BC Boy, mainly because I’m allergic to snow having grown up in Tasmania.

I’ve occasionally put state codes on the end when on vacation because while there has always been a bit of abrasive behaviour on here, there was also a time when we used to let each other know we were going on holiday and not to worry if someone didn’t post at there normal schedules.

My biggest supporter and friend on here was an older gentleman from Wisconsin, he started as Retired Boomer WI, but switched to posting as my nickname for him, Boom! I never got to meet him before his passing, although that was discussed a couple of times, so when I talk about him I sometimes put his final GAP code of M64WI as a sign of respect, and to show his family if they ever drop in that he is gone but not forgotten.

Dunno, there was some weird connection between two dudes from opposite ends of the universe, I haven’t talked to my Dad for 20 years, he bemoaned his son’s efforts occasionally, and I’m pretty sure he called him a parasite once, so I suspect I was looking for a teacher and he was looking for a student.

Both of us had the same warped sense of humour.

Whatever, hopefully he and his son were on good terms before he passed in September 2016, I’ve got my own drama going on, so I’m in no position to judge anyone.

His son’s name is Paul, the same name as my only sibling.

To finish up, of all the kooky connections that happened between us, once I went on holiday to Norfolk, Virginia, and I took a picture of this warship for him, that is permanently docked there.

It was the USS Wisconsin, the number on the side of the ship was 64.

That was Roy H. Stacey’s final GAP code…

M47BC
M64WI

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/USS_Wisconsin_(BB-64)

#67 Warren-the-lagging_indicator on 03.06.22 at 8:04 pm

“Money will keep moving into the safety of bonds. Prices down, yields up. Unless there’s a recession…”

I think you mean prices up, yields down? Anyways, I wonder how the competition for safety vs the rising rates will play out for bonds? Probably prices up in the short term,like the next two weeks until all this Russia/Ukraine resolves then back down due to the specter of accelerated rate hikes in order to tame inflation.

#68 Ponzius Pilatus on 03.06.22 at 8:16 pm

Zelenskyy is first an entertainer and second a politician.
And now the whole world is his stage.
And he’s also a gambler.
This is a height stake poker game.
I hope he’s playing his cards well.
Looks like Putin has all the “Trump” cards.
Not sure if “better dead than red” is a good call right now.
Nobody needs a martyr.

#69 Ponzius Pilatus on 03.06.22 at 8:24 pm

#54 Peter in Toronto on 03.06.22 at 7:01 pm
@35 Michael in-north-york

Well that’s nice and all, but I’m familiar with history and most of those wars were pursued by the Soviet Union, which Ukraine was a core part of. Weren’t Soviet leaders Khrushchev, Gorbachev and Brezhnev all of Ukrainian origin? Just to name a few.
————————
Exactly, that’s why the situation is so complicated.
Many Austrians also collaborated with the Nazis.
One even started the whole thing.
Well, some Austrians say, it was only “borderline”.

#70 Wheat Prices on 03.06.22 at 8:37 pm

Adam Vaughan is trying his best to suppress bond yields to appease his foreign investment backers. The price of gas, oil and wheat are skyrocketing. Let’s see if Tiff Macklem sees no inflation when the masses blindfold him at the town square in a French Revolution style.

#71 Moh on 03.06.22 at 8:46 pm

Garth putting in premium gas in his car while telling people to save lol

Give me a break. I left the helo at home. – Garth

#72 Michael in-north-york on 03.06.22 at 8:47 pm

#54 Peter in Toronto on 03.06.22 at 7:01 pm

@35 Michael in-north-york

Well that’s nice and all, but I’m familiar with history and most of those wars were pursued by the Soviet Union, which Ukraine was a core part of. Weren’t Soviet leaders Khrushchev, Gorbachev and Brezhnev all of Ukrainian origin? Just to name a few.

So I’m confused. Are you adding more to my long list of loathsome acts by the joint Russo-Ukrainian peoples against this world? I belong to neither group….
===

Yes, you are confused. I am going to help you.

Atrocities are not committed by the “joint Russo-Ukrainian peoples”, or by any other ethnic group. They are committed by the criminal gang that holds the power. First, by the Soviet communists. Then, after a brief and unsuccessful attempt at democratic rule in Russia, Putin and his cronies came to power.

Right now, Putin’s army is invading a sovereign country and murdering Ukrainian civilians. Your earlier post, disparaging the Ukrainian nation and their state, effectively plays into Putin’s hands.

Therefore, I found it appropriate to post a few facts about the empire Ukrainians are dealing with right now.

#73 Natural Resouces Matter on 03.06.22 at 8:48 pm

Oil futures gapped above $130/bl, but back down into the 120s. And US driving season hasn’t started yet.

It is looking more & more like $150/bl is likley to happen. How did the global economy handle this the last time?

Food and fertilizer through the roof. CP strike planned that would impact spring planting on the Prairies.

It isn’t impossible that the US could see a March CPI that touches the 10-handle.

Rate hikes though are unlikely to be more than 4 this year. And then back down to 0 in the recession.

#74 Moh on 03.06.22 at 8:51 pm

Hey Garth Where’s the love for Trudeau buying those pipelines. We now need those built more than ever!

#75 Michael in-north-york on 03.06.22 at 8:53 pm

#56 VladTor on 03.06.22 at 7:10 pm

Amazing!

He has good sense of humor!

Former Italian Minister of Industry, Trade and Crafts, Minister without Portfolio for European Affairs Paolo Savona wrote on Twitter: ‘I was convinced that sanctions were imposed against Russia, until I stopped at a gas station’

https://virtualbrest.ru/news101806.php
===

Great sense of humor, indeed. People are getting murdered right now, but we should let Putin get away with that because we don’t want to pay more for gas.

#76 conan on 03.06.22 at 9:02 pm

I wonder how long it will be before we ban trade with nations that still do business with Russia?
There is no end to this now that it has started.

#77 Craig on 03.06.22 at 9:25 pm

My #1 concern is that Pulter is holding the world hostage with nuclear weapons and China and India (36% of the worlds population) won’t criticize him. Whats even more alarming is that even western media are is reporting that his support has risen to 70%. Until the Russian people start to revolt in large numbers against this brutal dictator , God only knows what he will do next.

#78 mike from mtl on 03.06.22 at 9:28 pm

Well it seems like the bond market is not buying the narrative. The yield curve is becoming flat towards inverting again and mid-GCAN and preferreds are reflecting this.

BoC can hike all they want to 5-20%, the inflation monster is well out of their control. The real issue of coordinated government stupidity and QE has come to a head.

#79 Joey Joe Joe Junior Shabadoo on 03.06.22 at 9:30 pm

I leased a Volvo XC 60 last year. Only after the paperwork was signed and I was given the keys did the salesman say: ‘by the way, you must use Premium gas in this car’. I had no idea, it had never crossed my mind to ask, as I had never owned a car that requires premium gas.

Any advice you blog dog car experts can give on this question: does it’s really matter whether I use premium, or can I get away with regular gas?

#80 crowdedelevatorfartz on 03.06.22 at 9:31 pm

@#61 Fanboy

“China and Russia have restricted exports of plant based fertilizer. Between them they provide 30% of global fertilizer.

Add in the lost exports from Belarus and Ukraine, and that’s 66% of world fertilizer gone.”

+++

Its good for Canada.

Our Potash reserves are massive.

https://www.westernpotash.com/about-potash/what-is-potash#:~:text=Potash%20is%20a%20potassium%2Drich,K)%20bearing%20minerals%20and%20chemicals.

Fertilizer derived from Canadian Natural Gas is also viable.

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/fertilizer-prices-soaring-as-natural-gas-rally-adds-to-perfect-storm-11633699973

Wheat, corn, barley, soy all wanted by the rest of the world.

We won’t stare but bread may be $10 a loaf.

Kiss the Summer/Winter vacation money bye bye.

#81 When Will They Raise Rates? on 03.06.22 at 9:51 pm

#80 crowdedelevatorfartz on 03.06.22 at 9:31 pm

We won’t stare but bread may be $10 a loaf.

———

If bread is $10 a loaf, a lot of people will be starving… Glad I have enough high protien flour stored to keep my family in bread for a year… Saw this coming a mile away.

#82 Shawn on 03.06.22 at 9:55 pm

Do you really need Premium Gasoline?

#79 Joey Joe Joe Junior Shabadoo on 03.06.22 at 9:30 pm

Any advice you blog dog car experts can give on this question: does it’s really matter whether I use premium, or can I get away with regular gas?

************************************
We had a Volvo XC70 and used to give it mid-grade. But the manual says Regular (well check the octane level) was okay but premium would give better performance. We fed the thing regular for probably 10 years to no ill-effect.

Similarly I have an old Audi A4 and the manual says the same thing so I feed it regular. I’ve already driven it into the ground so no matter.

Soon I won’t have to worry. My Tesla arrives soon. Not kidding.

#83 Capt. Serious on 03.06.22 at 10:04 pm

Spare a thought for Ryan L who has to put gas in his Lambo and/or Porche. Tough life.

#84 bdwy on 03.06.22 at 10:05 pm

76 conan on 03.06.22 at 9:02 pm
I wonder how long it will be before we ban trade with nations that still do business with Russia?
————–
sbux coke pepsi mcd’s all going strong in russia.
when do we close the ambassador bridge?

#85 Ustabe on 03.06.22 at 10:24 pm

#79 Joey Joe Joe Junior Shabadoo on 03.06.22 at 9:30 pm

I leased a Volvo XC 60 last year. Only after the paperwork was signed and I was given the keys did the salesman say: ‘by the way, you must use Premium gas in this car’. I had no idea, it had never crossed my mind to ask, as I had never owned a car that requires premium gas.

Any advice you blog dog car experts can give on this question: does it’s really matter whether I use premium, or can I get away with regular gas?

You can run regular in an engine designed for premium.
However if its an older vehicle your performance will be degraded sometimes, knock will occur under acceleration and in certain circumstances serious damage can occur.

Newer vehicle? The ECM will simply retard your timing so the engine will run but again degraded performance that is noticeable, including less mpg. But you won’t get that engine knock.

Don’t try and out think the car manufacturer’s legion of engineers, if they say use premium do so.

#86 VicPaul on 03.06.22 at 10:29 pm

#60 Ponzius Pilatus on 03.06.22 at 7:30 pm
Some idiots in the Republican Party are asking the Government to supply Poland with fighter planes.
That would spell WWIII for sure.
Glad they are not in Government.

*********

Geez, CNN ponzie – lettin’ your idiot ideological hem show again.

https://thehill.com/homenews/administration/597056-sending-polish-fighter-jets-to-ukraine-gets-a-green-light-says. (lefty news outlet btw)

The suggestion apparently was Poland’s – they’ll give Ukraine their planes if the US promises to send them replacements…all Anthony Blinken and Biden admin.

“Republicans”… was that a willful lie for your lefty ideology or is your comprehension slipping?

M58BC

#87 Ed on 03.06.22 at 10:35 pm

I’m liking those oil prices.

Anyone living in Alberta makes enough money to not care.My current ride gets 7 mpg.

“Freeze in the dark” posthumous King Ralph.

I love when the turntables.

#88 Robert Ash on 03.06.22 at 10:41 pm

I would imagine, the Authorities must have to consider the possibility of a Dirty Bomb, used against Russia. It seems, plausible, that, given the Past Ukrainian involvement in Atomic Weapons, and Nuclear Power Plants, that there are some Patriots, who, would be interested in Delivering some little Nasty Radio Active material in the form of a Dirty Bomb, or Barrel Bomb, to their overloads. This possibility, only requires a couple of Terminal Cancer Patients, and a Helicopter… Chernobyl is close by…Also, the large scale explosives, resulting from 34-0-0 or Ammonium Nitrate and Diesel fuel are possibilities, awaiting the Russian convoy. I remember Oklahoma City? Also, the Recent Storage warehouse explosion of Fertilizers, in Beirut, that more or less exterminated this major center, or a good part of it… And There is a lot of Fertilizer in Russia and the Ukraine, it is used in Agriculture extensively. Lots of potential carnage left, and I believe the Ukrainian History suggests, a real life, or death fight.

#89 Robert Ash on 03.06.22 at 10:50 pm

I watched a couple of Front Line PBS, videos on Russia in Syria, Putin, ISIS, etc.
I have found the mainstream Media, to be muted for my interests, but the Frontline material was quite good, actually exceptional in my opinion. I found it hard not to support them, and did so… worth a look at CNN, FOX, CBS, and then a look at PBS. I think we also need PBS like broadcasting now more than ever.
The Documentaries about Syria, were especially disturbing. It is all about the Kleptocracy, and pretty startling, the inhumanity. I fear for the West without a little more seriousness, and determination.

#90 Don Guillermo on 03.06.22 at 10:51 pm

#18 earthboundmisfit on 03.06.22 at 3:53 pm
Jason Kenny is going to piss it all away.
*****
.. and Notley says “if you think Kenny can piss it away, hold my Prosecco glass”

#91 Basil Hammerstring on 03.06.22 at 10:52 pm

DELETED

#92 Concerned Citizen on 03.06.22 at 10:54 pm

It sure would be nice if we had central bankers in place who actually cared about price stability. Instead, we have clowns who seemingly care far more about rich peoples asset portfolios than the crushing inflation we’re facing now.

I certainly don’t blame them for the supply shocks stemming from COVID, or this latest one in progress from the Ukraine War. But I certainly do blame them for near constant money printing and negative real rates since 2009, and going a year plus now with 5% plus inflation and continuing to act like deflation is the problem (major central banks continue printing even now, with all hell breaking loose with inflation). They have blown massive asset bubbles and enabled incredibly reckless financial behaviour throughout the economy, leaving us in a terribly precarious/fragile position.

Real rates are what, -5% right now? Who wants to bet they’ll be -5% or even more negative by year end? I could easily see inflation at 7% by year end, and I doubt the Tiffster will raise more than 1-1.5%.

If I had to rank what I think central bankers true priorities are, it would look something like this:

– inflate away debt
– inflate asset values
– decrease real wages (great for companies/asset owners)



(way down there)

– price stability

The price stability mandate is a joke right out in the open. They spent a year calling it transitory. Now they’ve retired that word, but still clearly are hoping it’s transitory. It’s monetary policy on a wing and a prayer.

#93 Michael in-north-york on 03.06.22 at 11:10 pm

#76 conan on 03.06.22 at 9:02 pm

I wonder how long it will be before we ban trade with nations that still do business with Russia?
===

Never. That’s unrealistic, as well as unnecessary.

The impact of the sanctions already imposed is massive. We just need to be consistent and keep them in place till the end of the war.

#94 Two-thirds on 03.06.22 at 11:11 pm

Commodities rising across the board – check.

Food supply constrained = higher prices – check.

Supply constrained for energy and base metals = higher prices across the board – check.

Great resignation = higher labour prices – check

Higher interest rates in 2022 = reduced demand – check

Therefore: the supply side will be squeezed, putting upward pressure on all inputs, and increasing prices.

It seems hence that when the recession arrives, it will be supply-driven. If so, central banks targeting demand by increasing rates will help… how?

Oh yes, real estate inflation and debt, which is demand driven.

So a blunt approach it is, thus guaranteeing a recession is now baked in the cards thanks to a supply crunch which we have not seen in decades, compounded by depressed demand driven by central bank actions. Modern economies rely on growth, so with demand destruction AND 70-80’s era supply crunches, how does the world escape a global recession??

Will central banks still increase rates to quell supply-driven inflation? Does that even make sense??

#95 IHCTD9 on 03.06.22 at 11:16 pm

#79 Joey Joe Joe Junior Shabadoo on 03.06.22 at 9:30 pm
I leased a Volvo XC 60 last year. Only after the paperwork was signed and I was given the keys did the salesman say: ‘by the way, you must use Premium gas in this car’. I had no idea, it had never crossed my mind to ask, as I had never owned a car that requires premium gas.

Any advice you blog dog car experts can give on this question: does it’s really matter whether I use premium, or can I get away with regular gas?
——

You can with older turbo cars, just drive with a gentle right foot to avoid lighting up the turbo and possible detonation. Yours is direct injected and turbocharged ie. high compression + boost on top. I wouldn’t risk it with that combo.

#96 Sail Away on 03.06.22 at 11:22 pm

#87 Ed on 03.06.22 at 10:35 pm

I’m liking those oil prices.

“Freeze in the dark” posthumous King Ralph.

I love when the turntables.

———-

https://youtu.be/6FwmGLzyRDk

#97 Midnight’s on 03.06.22 at 11:31 pm

DELETED

#98 Peter in Toronto on 03.06.22 at 11:31 pm

@#72 Michael in-north-york

Hmm, no I’m not convinced.
A neutral buffer state that would replace the current entity formed after 1991 would be better for both the West and Russia.

I’m FOR the speedy dissolution of the Kiev government, which is the rational option that will quickly reduce civilian suffering.

The West does not give a damn about civilians (look at Syria) and is promising weapons left and right. If that Zelensky tool had any spine, he wouldn’t be hiding behind 3 million civilian hostages in Kiev, instead he would negotiate for a truce, unconditionally.

#99 DON on 03.06.22 at 11:32 pm

#92 Concerned Citizen on 03.06.22 at 10:54 pm

The price stability mandate is a joke right out in the open. They spent a year calling it transitory. Now they’ve retired that word, but still clearly are hoping it’s transitory. It’s monetary policy on a wing and a prayer.

*****************
We got more than prayers, we got music.

“Once upon a time not so long ago
Tommy used to work on the docks, union’s been on strike
He’s down on his luck, it’s tough, so tough
Gina works the diner all day working for her man
She brings home her pay, for love, for love
She says, we’ve got to hold on to what we’ve got
It doesn’t make a difference if we make it or not
We’ve got each other and that’s a lot for love
We’ll give it a shot
Woah, we’re half way there
Woah, livin’ on a prayer
Take my hand, we’ll make it I swear
Woah, livin’ on a prayer
Tommy’s got his six-string in hock
Now he’s holding in what he used to make it talk
So tough, it’s tough
Gina dreams of running away
When she cries in the night, Tommy whispers
Baby, it’s okay, someday
We’ve got to hold on to what we’ve got
It doesn’t make a difference if we make it or not
We’ve got each other and that’s a lot for love
We’ll give it a shot
Woah, we’re half way there
Woah, livin’ on a prayer
Take my hand, we’ll make it I swear
Woah, livin’ on a prayer
Livin’ on a prayer
Oh, we’ve got to hold on, ready or not
You live for the fight when it’s all that you’ve got
Woah, we’re half way there
Woah, livin’ on a prayer
Take my hand, we’ll make it I swear
Woah, livin’ on a prayer
Woah, we’re half way there
Woah, livin’ on a prayer
Take my hand, we’ll make it I swear
Woah, livin’ on a prayer
Woah, we’re half way there
Woah, livin’ on a prayer
Take my hand, we’ll make it I swear
Woah, livin’ on a prayer”

#100 Wasabi on 03.06.22 at 11:57 pm

Oh look, limit up on oil and stocks down – who woodah thought that higher cost of energy would push down corporate profits?

This has been going on for the last couple months.

Easy trade.

#101 Ustabe on 03.06.22 at 11:59 pm

#95 IHCTD9 on 03.06.22 at 11:16 pm


Any advice you blog dog car experts can give on this question: does it’s really matter whether I use premium, or can I get away with regular gas?
——

You can with older turbo cars, just drive with a gentle right foot to avoid lighting up the turbo and possible detonation. Yours is direct injected and turbocharged ie. high compression + boost on top. I wouldn’t risk it with that combo.

oooph, I missed the turbo part. Ya, don’t risk it. The difference between regular and premium is far less than a turbo, top end motor replacement.

Another thing about turbos, they heat up fast but also cool down fast. If you have just finished a spirited run or even a highway run with lots of passing, etc. calling on the boost, it is wise to idle for a few, give the stuff time to cool rather than becoming a static heat sink.

#102 Ponzius Pilatus on 03.07.22 at 12:04 am

Elon Musk calls for Europe to restart its nuclear power stations: ‘critical to international security:
———————————-
Sure, Elon.
International Security?
More like to provide juice for your Teslas.

#103 Yukon Elvis on 03.07.22 at 12:28 am

The media is asking why is the Russian convoy stalled ? It is not stalled. It is trapped. Destroy the front and rear elements of the convoy and everything in between is trapped. It is winter in Ukraine. Troops get cold and they get hungry when the fuel and food run out. They can be sniped at from the flanks. Snipers can choose their targets then shoot and scoot. The Russians get demoralized. Resupply by road or air is attacked. The troops in the convoy freeze and starve and not sleep for days and maybe walk away from the fight. It is a good tactic. Let the Russians freeze and starve and get demoralized. Waiting doesn’t cost anything in this case. And the Russians look like amateurs. Attacking Ukrainians in the Ukraine is not like bombing shepherds in the Syrian desert. Big humiliation for tough guy Russia. All the Russians can do is artillery strikes on civilians in the cities. Shame on them.

#104 bdwy on 03.07.22 at 12:42 am

gas hits 2.10 in vancouver….

“Ah yes, I remember the one day gas was $2 a litre, seems like it was yesterday.”

#105 Satori on 03.07.22 at 12:54 am

#62 Ustabe on 03.06.22 at 7:36 pm
Thank you, it finally makes sense! :)

#66 Flop… on 03.06.22 at 7:50 pm

That really touch my heart Flop. so sweet of you to do that for his family, that is honor.

My father passed away a couple of years ago, but one of his best qualities was mentoring. I think it was because he was a Man’s Man. Guys were always coming over to have a beer with my Dad, for years, so many would make time just to be with him. I’d sit on the steps sometimes and secretly listen to what they where talking about.

My Dad always stopped what he was doing and made time for them. He had two girls, so in many ways, these young men fulfilled something in my Dad, that he needed to share.

I totally understand. I have many ‘brothers’ who I am still connected with since Dad’s passing.

Sometimes we find the things we need most are in someone other than our immediate family. Where we just learn so much! It sounds to me that Roy was that someone for you. He was family to you, and you honor him, for the connection you shared.

Ok, my eyes are leaking now…

Thank you for sharing that story.
F49BC :)

#106 Armpit on 03.07.22 at 1:06 am

Asian Markets down 2-4 % at this writing….get ready this morning Blogdogs!!!!

#107 fishman on 03.07.22 at 1:08 am

Another “Lenin Week”. As far as I can see Nato’s last non-kinetic arrow is blocking Euro for oil & Russia will keep ratcheting up kinetic force. Garth is right. Turn off CNN & BNN & CBC &CTV& FOX, well OK, just a little sneak peek now & then.

#108 Kevin on 03.07.22 at 1:13 am

Great post as always, Garth. Thank you. Slava Ukraini!

#109 slick on 03.07.22 at 1:38 am

Just to put this grain issue into perspective, I sold 1/3 of wheat crop last summer for between $7-$8 per bushel. Put the rest in the bin. I sold 1/3 on Thursday for about $13. Still holding the last 1/3, and am expecting $18.

The point is food inflation is going to ravage those that can least afford it. The divide between have and have nots will grow fast and wide. Hang on , it is gonna be a bumpy ride.

#110 yvr_lurker on 03.07.22 at 1:39 am

With all of the super-distressing news the past week with the chaos in Ukraine, I came across this story which brought a laugh.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-india-60637980

One eccentric fellow just trying to look after two big cats in these crazy times… refuses to leave…. I’d probably have the same mindset….

#111 willworkforpickles on 03.07.22 at 3:58 am

#92 Concerned Citizen

“If I had to rank what I think central bankers true priorities are, it would look something like this:

– inflate away debt”
……………………………………………………………………………………………………….

The Modern Monetary Theory recipe for disaster that will never work long enough to inflate away debt before it eventually backfires and implodes . It’s the Kool-aid for the MMT duped.

#112 Steve French on 03.07.22 at 4:25 am

Putin has cost Steve French more than $25,000 in paper losses year to date.

Steve French is not happy with Mad Vlad…!

#113 crowdedelevatorfartz on 03.07.22 at 7:40 am

@#109 Slick
“The point is food inflation is going to ravage those that can least afford it. The divide between have and have nots will grow fast and wide. Hang on , it is gonna be a bumpy ride.”

++++

Yep.

We can grow our own food in Canada but if the rest of the world is willing to pay top dollar for it….
Then we’ll pay top dollar for it too.
I noticed the local safeway is low on popular brands of cereals, Bran flakes, shredded wheat, all gone from the shelves for over a week.
They have filled the shelves with the sugary crap.

What do you use for fertilizer?
Potash, Ammonia? Nitrogen? Trudeau’s speeches?

#114 I don’t know on 03.07.22 at 7:54 am

98 Peter in Toronto on 03.06.22 at 11:31 pm

A neutral buffer state is clearly not the goal here. More like a puppet state.
Zelensky isn’t hiding behind anyone in his own country. Negotiations for a truce have been going on for days now.

IDK

#115 the Jaguar on 03.07.22 at 7:58 am

@#77 Craig on 03.06.22 at 9:25 pm—
Excerpt from NP article re your comment:

“Led by heavy diplomacy from the western bloc, 141 nations passed a resolution last Wednesday at the United Nations General Assembly deploring Russia’s “aggression against Ukraine.”
Only four countries came out in support of Russia: North Korea, Belarus, Syria and Eritrea.

What is more interesting is the list of countries that chose not to take a stance.

Thirty-five members abstained from the vote. Predictably China and India, which both have strong ties with Moscow through the collection of BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa) nations, did not vote. But half of the abstentions came from Africa.
The powerful son of Uganda’s president of 35 years, Lt.-gen. Muhoozi Kainerugaba, expressed his support for Putin’s invasion on Twitter — “the majority of mankind (that are non-white) support Russia’s stand in Ukraine,” he said.
Kainerugaba is tapping into a noticeable strand of East African public discourse, which argues that Putin’s attack on Ukraine is justified because of the West’s antics in Africa and, more recently, in Libya, Iraq and Afghanistan.”

Maybe they were paying attention when the promise was made not to advance even one inch east.

#116 I don’t know on 03.07.22 at 7:59 am

https://www.cbc.ca/news/business/jobs-inflation-expectations-column-don-pittis-1.6372617

-The CBC is accurate here in stating that rate hikes won’t increase housing affordability. The opposite, actually. There will be a housing crisis alright, but one in which prices continue to accelerate upwards.

As always stay invested in a balanced and diversified portfolio, but make sure that includes dirt (the
moment you can afford it).

IDK

#117 Brian on 03.07.22 at 8:31 am

DELETED

#118 crowdedelevatorfartz on 03.07.22 at 8:51 am

@#112 1st person steve
“Putin has cost Steve French more than $25,000 in paper losses year to date.”

+++

Is that all?
Just wait.

#119 Philco on 03.07.22 at 8:53 am

I agree timing the market with any real money is dangerous.
There was a dude here that said he banged of 10x on oil and gas. Those trades are near impossible to repeat. I think take some loot and diversify at some point.

$240 to fill up the Duramax now, I guess RVing costs are going up.
Good thing I filled up when I stored it last fall. That’s a pretty good return :-)

#120 IHCTD9 on 03.07.22 at 8:58 am

#101 Ustabe on 03.06.22 at 11:59 pm
#95 IHCTD9 on 03.06.22 at 11:16 pm


Any advice you blog dog car experts can give on this question: does it’s really matter whether I use premium, or can I get away with regular gas?
——

You can with older turbo cars, just drive with a gentle right foot to avoid lighting up the turbo and possible detonation. Yours is direct injected and turbocharged ie. high compression + boost on top. I wouldn’t risk it with that combo.

oooph, I missed the turbo part. Ya, don’t risk it. The difference between regular and premium is far less than a turbo, top end motor replacement
____

All aluminum motor too. P-p-ping ping ping ping – KABOOM!

Tough to drive a turbo car without dipping into the boost. It’s a recipe for disaster :)

#121 RichardTO on 03.07.22 at 9:04 am

Russian counter-sanctions have yet to be launched. $3.00/litre gas will be the least of your worries when 2/5 of global fertilizer production and 1/4 of all food production that comes out of Ukraine-Belarus-Russia, will be removed from global trade.

I suspect the liberal cat ladies, urbanoid bugmen and wine moms howling for a “no-fly zone” (aka WW3) on Twitter don’t really understand anything, much less how dangerous the situation has become.

The above characterization also applies to our Chief virtue signaler and his Truth Ministers.

#122 crowdedelevatorfartz on 03.07.22 at 9:07 am

When China eventually invades Russia….

Will the West stand by and watch?

#123 Brian on 03.07.22 at 9:20 am

The Prime Minister has landed on European soil, you are all saved.

#124 millmech on 03.07.22 at 9:34 am

Now oil is predicted to hit $200 a barrel this year.
https://www.msn.com/en-ca/money/topstories/posthaste-what-200-oil-could-do-to-canada-and-the-world-economy-and-it-s-not-pretty/ar-AAUJqXV?ocid=msedgdhp&pc=U531

#125 Michael in-north-york on 03.07.22 at 9:34 am

#98 Peter in Toronto on 03.06.22 at 11:31 pm

@#72 Michael in-north-york

Hmm, no I’m not convinced.
A neutral buffer state that would replace the current entity formed after 1991 would be better for both the West and Russia.
===

Neutral buffer state? I’ll give a few examples:
Spain occupied by Napoleon troops
Serbia occupied by Hitler troops
Afganistan occupied by the Russians, 1979-1989
Afganistan occupied by the Americans, 2001-2021

Can control, cannot pacify, a constant drain on resources.

#126 Michael in-north-york on 03.07.22 at 9:41 am

#122 crowdedelevatorfartz on 03.07.22 at 9:07 am

When China eventually invades Russia….

Will the West stand by and watch?
===

I can’t imagine the West giving any help to Russia, after everything they have done to Ukraine.

China has a large arsenal of nukes. Any stand-off with China means a risk of nuclear war. If we cannot risk a nuclear war to protect the friendly nation of Ukraine, then why should we risk one to protect an openly hostile nation?

#127 millmech on 03.07.22 at 9:46 am

#122
Why would they invade, Russia is now building a pipeline to move oil to them , they have merged their banking system to counteract SWIFT. The Chinese are buying Russian assets like crazy, they have just made China immensely way more powerful now.
Once the pipeline is complete to China they will no longer be dependent on tanker oil which has just had a $4.95 premium per barrel put on it by Saudi Arabia for Asian customers.
China now will control most of the worlds minerals as they have been growing their influence in Africa by investing in mineral rich countries.
Even if the EU lifts sanctions why would Russia ever sell to them again when the massive Chinese economy will take everything they have with never having to be held hostage by sanctions again.

#128 Brian on 03.07.22 at 9:58 am

DELETED

#129 Tarot card on 03.07.22 at 9:59 am

Thanks for the blog Garth!

I understand that we all don’t know what will happen with the war and agree speculation is difficult.

But some things have me worried, for example won’t this Impact Canada? What about supply chain? And let’s not forget oil, we complain about two dollar gas, but what about all the basics? We live in Canada with our heads in the sand.

So I ask the question what will happen if Russia cuts off oil exports? Or if some idiot blows up all the pipelines run Ukrainian land? The rest of the world cannot gear up and produce oil overnight. So the short term ? Less than a year will be devastating.

One thing as I worry about the future I have not lost sight that over 40 million people are suffering in unimaginable circumstances.

This will not end well.

#130 Sail Away on 03.07.22 at 10:12 am

Oh my. Geez Louise. Miners, oil and space defense stocks.

It’s tempting to jump on the momentum and average up… but naw.

#131 Shawn on 03.07.22 at 10:15 am

It’s irresponsible to claim government CPI inflation numbers are manipulated

#7 Meh on 03.06.22 at 2:57 pm

Hi Garth,

To your credit, you have always correctly been quick to belittle the CP lie inflation stats coming from the fountains of misinformation. Shadow stats now claiming it is closer to 20 percent. What is your estimation?

*******************
Well, Mr. Meh, I think Garth has said that everyday inflation on the street is higher than the overall official total. But I’m not sure if he has actually supported the idea that the Stats Canada number is in any way manipulated or fundamentally flawed or belittled Stats Canada.

There is no credible evidence that Statistics Canada does anything other than a professional job of measuring inflation as best it can. It provides various figures with and without the more volatile items. They show you the basket weights and the inflation for each component.

Anyone making blanket statements that official inflation is not to be trusted is just another tinfoil hat wearer in my opinion.

It’s easy to make or repeat unsubstantiated assertions about inflation. It’s a heck of a lot harder to actually measure it accurately over the whole basket of spending and keeping in mind that people have vastly different baskets. The vast vast majority of people have not bought a house recently for example.

Dig into facts first Mr. Meh and then we will talk.

Start here:

https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/pub/71-607-x/71-607-x2018016-eng.htm

#132 Dharma Bum on 03.07.22 at 10:34 am

“Ukraine is the breadbasket of Europe… so this means…Inflation is baked in.”
-Garth
——————————————————————————————————

Pun intended?

Russia is the big bad wolf of Europe. It’s been like that for most of those alive today. The neighbourhood bully. The ogre. Thugs, crooks, commies, gangsters, thieves, henchmen, criminals, killers.
KGB. GU (GRU). SVR. FSB. FSO.
Siberian prisons.
Tortured dissidents.
Rampant human rights violations.
An evil empire, that the woke and politically correct have attempted in recent years to downplay and soften.
The bleeding hearts of the west were always too eager to turn a blind eye.
“As the West fell into a hypnotic trance about healing its relationship with nature, averting climate apocalypse and worshiping a teenager named Greta, Vladimir Putin made his moves.”

https://www.climatedepot.com/2022/03/01/shellenberger-the-wests-green-delusions-empowered-putin-while-we-banned-plastic-straws-russia-drilled-doubled-nuclear-energy-production/

This entire mess was preventable, if not for the weak, naive foreign policy stance of western powers, and their addiction to foreign oil, and their capitulation to the delusional forces of the green energy humpers and climate emergency freaks by not sufficiently developing domestic energy sources and hastening independence.
Russia was always the sleeping giant.
The Return of Godzilla.

https://www.imdb.com/title/tt9015178/

#133 Michael in-north-york on 03.07.22 at 10:35 am

#115 the Jaguar on 03.07.22 at 7:58 am

“The powerful son of Uganda’s president of 35 years, Lt.-gen. Muhoozi Kainerugaba, expressed his support for Putin’s invasion on Twitter — “the majority of mankind (that are non-white) support Russia’s stand in Ukraine,” he said.”
===

https://www.bangkokpost.com/thailand/general/2273483/thais-heed-call-to-help-ukraine

#134 Michael in-north-york on 03.07.22 at 10:43 am

#127 millmech on 03.07.22 at 9:46 am

#122
Why would they invade, Russia is now building a pipeline to move oil to them , they have merged their banking system to counteract SWIFT. The Chinese are buying Russian assets like crazy, they have just made China immensely way more powerful now.
===

That’s largely true. They will prefer not to fight a war, but rather take over the Russian resources in a gradual manner. They will even allow the Siberian towns to continue flying the Russian flag, as long as all the decisions and all the money flows are controlled by Beijing, and Moscow doesn’t try to interfere.

#135 IHCTD9 on 03.07.22 at 10:46 am

#119 Philco on 03.07.22 at 8:53 am

$240 to fill up the Duramax now, I guess RVing costs are going up.
Good thing I filled up when I stored it last fall. That’s a pretty good return :-)
____

Same here, 240 fill. But I don’t have the almighty DirtyMax under-hood, so I get 9.6mpg instead of 20. Almost .50 cents/km to run it :(.

No matter though, the “new” 91 C2500 with the old mechanical 6.2 Detroit will do 25 mpg+ on the highway – it’ll just do it very slowly :).

#136 Doug in London on 03.07.22 at 10:48 am

There’s no time like right now to sell off some holdings in oil companies. While many people complain about the high price of fuel, your capital gains can help pay for that outrageously expensive gasoline, diesel fuel, or other fuels.

#137 VladTor on 03.07.22 at 10:50 am

Sanction news:

The US Treasury Department allowed American companies to buy Russian oil through an intermediary bank in a third country that did not join the anti-Russian sanctions. Thus, the dollar payment will go to the bank of a third country, and then from it to Russia.

Hong Kong traders have already rushed to offer the best conditions.

As a result, a buyer from the United States will simply pay more, the Russian Federation will receive funds in full, and some interest will settle in Hong Kong, under the China.

#138 Ponzius Pilatus on 03.07.22 at 10:57 am

119 Philco on 03.07.22 at 8:53 am
I agree timing the market with any real money is dangerous.
There was a dude here that said he banged of 10x on oil and gas. Those trades are near impossible to repeat. I think take some loot and diversify at some point.

$240 to fill up the Duramax now, I guess RVing costs are going up.
Good thing I filled up when I stored it last fall. That’s a pretty good return :-)
————————
I hope you put some stabilizer in the tank.
Otherwise, it could not be a Duramax” any more.

#139 Lee on 03.07.22 at 11:03 am

PBO says houses in Toronto are 50% above affordable levels for households earning average incomes. That’s the point. People in households earning average incomes are not the ones buying homes in Toronto. The homes are being bought by investors who lease them to people with average incomes.

People take the PBO’s statement as evidence of a crash coming. I think it is the PBO telling people with average incomes to stop dreaming of owning a house, at least in the GTA. At some point people have to face reality. That time is now.

#140 G on 03.07.22 at 11:08 am

Hi #79 re: Don’t throw your money away using Premium unless Required.
“Any advice you blog dog car experts can give on this question: does it’s really matter whether I use premium, or can I get away with regular gas?”

Short answer; use what your vehicle manufacturer “Requires” (or recommends).
If Premium is Required and you Don’t you Can Damage the Engine!

Longer detailed answer; this YouTube 16min seem to cover All the points about fuel and the “Why”.
Start at 10:19, If you don’t have all the time or need the extra details, like what ‘octane’ is a measure of…

What is the BEST Fuel to Use in Your Car or Truck and WHY YouTube 16min. Oct 15, 2019
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Bb5VfiFy0kY

“This video will bust all of the myths and tell you the FACTS on what fuel you should use and why.”
“Many people throw money away and fill their car with the incorrect fuel every day. Running premium or midgrade in a car designed to run regular is a waste of money and has no HP or MPG benefits.”

#141 Ponzius Pilatus on 03.07.22 at 11:18 am

#127 millmech on 03.07.22 at 9:46 am
#122
Why would they invade, Russia is now building a pipeline to move oil to them , they have merged their banking system to counteract SWIFT. The Chinese are buying Russian assets like crazy, they have just made China immensely way more powerful now.
Once the pipeline is complete to China they will no longer be dependent on tanker oil which has just had a $4.95 premium per barrel put on it by Saudi Arabia for Asian customers.
China now will control most of the worlds minerals as they have been growing their influence in Africa by investing in mineral rich countries.
Even if the EU lifts sanctions why would Russia ever sell to them again when the massive Chinese economy will take everything they have with never having to be held hostage by sanctions again.
————————-
What you’re saying makes a lot of sense.
Sanctions often come with unintended consequences.
And Trump, with his MAGA and demolition of Western Alliances and friendship with despots, did not help a bit.
Now it’s all posturing by the West, which is trying to catch up.
It’s sad actually, but the times they are a’changing.

#142 Sail Away on 03.07.22 at 11:22 am

Watch that oil rocket. One of my business partners picked up a number of small oil fields during the OG bankruptcy years and it’s just about time to start flipping. In hindsight, that would have been a lucrative venture to join. Sigh.

Peripherally related to gas, the Tesla probably cost us about $200 in electricity over the last year, total. So $200+ for a single gas fill up covers our Tesla transportation for. a. year. Food for thought.

Did the car come free? – Garth

#143 Former Soviet on 03.07.22 at 11:28 am

#70 Wheat Prices

I’m noticing that many Canadians, especially urban dwellers are becoming angrier and becoming hopeless. Maybe they should start by stop supporting crony capitalism?

How can there be free markets when NIMBYS and corrupt politicians deliberately restrict housing supply while increasing the population to benefit the RENTIER class?

#144 Ponzius Pilatus on 03.07.22 at 11:30 am

#137 VladTor on 03.07.22 at 10:50 am
Sanction news:

The US Treasury Department allowed American companies to buy Russian oil through an intermediary bank in a third country that did not join the anti-Russian sanctions. Thus, the dollar payment will go to the bank of a third country, and then from it to Russia.

Hong Kong traders have already rushed to offer the best conditions.

As a result, a buyer from the United States will simply pay more, the Russian Federation will receive funds in full, and some interest will settle in Hong Kong, under the China.
————————-
Not sure if this is true.
But if it’s true, it confirms the old adage that “all wars are banker’s wars”.

#145 James on 03.07.22 at 11:44 am

#113 crowdedelevatorfartz on 03.07.22 at 7:40 am

@#109 Slick
“The point is food inflation is going to ravage those that can least afford it. The divide between have and have nots will grow fast and wide. Hang on , it is gonna be a bumpy ride.”

++++

Yep.

We can grow our own food in Canada but if the rest of the world is willing to pay top dollar for it….
Then we’ll pay top dollar for it too.
I noticed the local safeway is low on popular brands of cereals, Bran flakes, shredded wheat, all gone from the shelves for over a week.
They have filled the shelves with the sugary crap.

What do you use for fertilizer?
Potash, Ammonia? Nitrogen? Trudeau’s speeches?
___________________________________________
lmao
You forgot Donald Trumps famous plugged toilet dumps.

#146 Sail Away on 03.07.22 at 11:44 am

#142 Sail Away on 03.07.22 at 11:22 am

Peripherally related to gas, the Tesla probably cost us about $200 in electricity over the last year, total. So $200+ for a single gas fill up covers our Tesla transportation for. a. year. Food for thought.

“Did the car come free? – Garth”

———

Do gasoline cars come free?

Nah, but they cost 50% less. That’s a lot of gas money. – Garth

#147 Ponzius Pilatus on 03.07.22 at 11:49 am

JT visits the Queen.
Aren’t they cute together?

https://www.spiegel.de/panorama/leute/queen-elizabeth-ii-empfaengt-nach-coronainfektion-besuch-auf-schloss-windsor-a-014dc544-9615-4646-9726-1a044a9cf58e

#148 IHCTD9 on 03.07.22 at 11:50 am

#138 Ponzius Pilatus on 03.07.22 at 10:57 am

I hope you put some stabilizer in the tank.
Otherwise, it could not be a Duramax” any more.
____

Don’t think you need that stuff with a diesel. Guys routinely leave diesel powered heavy equipment for seasons/years and run them on whatever is in the tank when needed again.

#149 pPrasseur on 03.07.22 at 11:56 am

#33 Diamond Dog – The problem is, the U.S. (approx 125% debt to GDP) and Canada (118%) owe so much debt that raising rates substantially to fight off inflation jacks their debt service to unsustainable levels.

Huge numbers indeed, sure to create problems eventually, but there are nuances to be made. They don’t make the problem smaller but they do make understanding fully and predicting more difficult.

For example, in Canada 118% of GDB includes provinces and the federal debt (I think around 70% of GDB) is held by the central bank for about 40%.

In the US more than 25% of the debt is intra governmental (not “serviced” in the same way). In the US the Federal reserve holds about 18% of the Federal debt, much less than Canada. And the USD is the world reserve currency.

Also the fiscal situation is quite different in both countries, Canadians pay far more taxes and you could say the US is in debt because they don’t tax enough for whatever they spend, but at least there is fiscal margin. In Canada we tax a lot more, there isn’t any margin left yet it is not enough (our healthcare systems are crumbling and costs are exploding, all of government tab…).

Add to that the household debt levels in Canada far above those in the US, the household financial situation there is actually relatively good.

All that leads me to be believe money printing has been far more prevalent in Canada, for years, and therefore the consequences will be more severe.

You might see a lot of inflation but will never see hyperinflation in the US or in the Eurozone, simply because these markets are to big to be abandoned by investors, there just aren’t enough “safe” alternatives to put money in.

Canada is another story, it is a small market, small enough to be dumped by investors and I’m pretty sure this will happen soon or later, just don’t know how much and when, but when it does there will be a serious crisis in this country.

BTW it is revealing to see oil and the TSX go up while CAD is losing…

#150 Doug t on 03.07.22 at 12:17 pm

good old rex

https://nationalpost.com/opinion/rex-murphy-greenism-has-helped-putin-fuel-his-war-machine

#151 Doug t on 03.07.22 at 12:20 pm

Did the car come free? – Garth

exactly – my business partner bought the ford mustang electric …..$83,000 lol

#152 Diamond Dog on 03.07.22 at 12:21 pm

Nickel is trading @ $ 21 bucks a pound, up 53% today.

http://www.kitcometals.com/

#153 Gravy Train on 03.07.22 at 12:28 pm

Garth, I miss the policies of glasnost and perestroika. I wonder what Gorbachev thinks of Putin.

#154 Hmmmmm on 03.07.22 at 12:33 pm

#79 Joey Joe Joe Junior Shabadoo on 03.06.22 at 9:30 pm
I leased a Volvo XC 60 last year. Only after the paperwork was signed and I was given the keys did the salesman say: ‘by the way, you must use Premium gas in this car’. I had no idea, it had never crossed my mind to ask, as I had never owned a car that requires premium gas.

Any advice you blog dog car experts can give on this question: does it’s really matter whether I use premium, or can I get away with regular gas?
//////////////

Hmmm, if only there was a way to know for certain.

I KNOW!

Read the freakin owners manual!

#155 Love_The_Cottage on 03.07.22 at 12:34 pm

I absolutely understand and agree with the advice not to panic and go to all cash.

On the other hand the fact that I’ve been doing 50/40/10 GIC’s instead of a 60/40 split means I’ve been getting lower returns the past few years and I’ve been getting more sleep the last few weeks. It has to be a plan with the amount of risk each person is comfortable with.

#156 Michael in-north-york on 03.07.22 at 12:36 pm

#137 VladTor on 03.07.22 at 10:50 am

The real outcome is: United States pay more, Russia gets less, the intermediary profits from both of them.

Economy 101. Trade restrictions always hit both ways.

#157 VladTor on 03.07.22 at 1:37 pm

to #144 Ponzius Pilatus on 03.07.22 at 11:30 am

… “all wars are banker’s wars”.

************
Exactly!!!

Cui prodest? Cui bono?

#158 kommykim on 03.07.22 at 1:52 pm

RE: #132 Dharma Bum on 03.07.22 at 10:34 am
Russia is the big bad wolf of Europe. It’s been like that ***SNIP!***
An evil empire, that the woke and politically correct have attempted in recent years to downplay and soften.

=======================================

Please explain how tRump is “woke and politically correct”…
I’ve got my popcorn ready…

#159 Brian on 03.07.22 at 2:10 pm

DELETED

#160 4-Runners on 03.07.22 at 2:31 pm

#146 Sail Away on 03.07.22 at 11:44 am

Do gasoline cars come free?

Nah, but they cost 50% less. That’s a lot of gas money. – Garth

I also hear that some Tesla drivers shunt long trips to their 22mpg Toyota 4-Runners that were also not free.

I also hear that others do the math on a Leaf, depreciation, cost of fuel, maintenance, greenness and then compare the cost of a used econobox, cost of fuel, maintenance etc and decide they dont want to set fire to $300 a month to virtue signal.

#161 Philco on 03.07.22 at 2:31 pm

#135 IHCTD9 on 03.07.22 at 10:46 am
===================
Need to put up a mast and a sail!

#138 Ponzius Pilatus on 03.07.22 at 10:57 am
119 Philco on 03.07.22 at 8:53 am

$240 to fill up the Duramax now, I guess RVing costs are going up.
Good thing I filled up when I stored it last fall. That’s a pretty good return :-)
————————
I hope you put some stabilizer in the tank.
Otherwise, it could not be a Duramax” any more.
===========================
Na she’ll be good…cold sable storage full tank no moister or oxidization. Just started her not even 1 crank zero smoke.
Gas goes off much faster.
My Backhoes sit for long periods of time. Spark right up.

These prices are going to do some damage to folks.
I’m good I’m going places no matter the cost. $500 a tank would be annoying as hell though :0
Camping’s now officially construction on the books. lol

#162 bdwy on 03.07.22 at 2:38 pm

#148 IHCTD9 on 03.07.22 at 11:50 am
#138 Ponzius Pilatus on 03.07.22 at 10:57 am

I hope you put some stabilizer in the tank.
Otherwise, it could not be a Duramax” any more.
____

Don’t think you need that stuff with a diesel. Guys routinely leave diesel powered heavy equipment for seasons/years and run them on whatever is in the tank when needed again

——
correct , not needed, really. diesel is a very different beast. ever use it ponz? somehow i doubt it.

i pulled a 1960 loader/backhoe out of a blackberry patch in the forest that had been sitting for ~10? years. no fuel issues to get it going.

#163 Philco on 03.07.22 at 2:42 pm

$200 oil I don’t think we get there but who the heck know with the goofs running stuff.
Need to Get Socks and Mr B on the blower. Killing pipe lines will impoverish people.
https://financialpost.com/executive/executive-summary/posthaste-what-200-oil-could-do-to-canada-and-the-world-economy-its-not-pretty

#164 Yukon Elvis on 03.07.22 at 2:47 pm

#148 IHCTD9 on 03.07.22 at 11:50 am
#138 Ponzius Pilatus on 03.07.22 at 10:57 am

I hope you put some stabilizer in the tank.
Otherwise, it could not be a Duramax” any more.
____

Don’t think you need that stuff with a diesel. Guys routinely leave diesel powered heavy equipment for seasons/years and run them on whatever is in the tank when needed again.
+++++++++++++
Went on a short trip a few years ago, ended up gone for 13 months. Recharged the battery in my Jeep Wrangler 4.0 litre and it fired right up after maybe ten seconds of cranking. I was surprised.

#165 Sail Away on 03.07.22 at 2:51 pm

#152 Diamond Dog on 03.07.22 at 12:21 pm

Nickel is trading @ $ 21 bucks a pound, up 53% today.

——–

Yep. And BHP is the world’s largest nickel miner. Also Tesla’s nickel supplier since July 2021.

Hmm…

#166 ElGatoNeroYVR on 03.07.22 at 2:57 pm

Do you really need Premium Gasoline?

#79 Joey Joe Joe Junior Shabadoo on 03.06.22 at 9:30 pm

Any advice you blog dog car experts can give on this question: does it’s really matter whether I use premium, or can I get away with regular gas?
===========================
On a modern car , Yes you do . Not using it will void the warranty when something in the engine goes(injectors maybe) -all is computer controlled as the perfomance is not there and sefvice can tell the parameters under which the engine operated.. If it has turbo or twin turbo even more so .
Fact is ,if one can’t afford premium gas one shouldn’t be buying a premium car :-) .

#167 bdwy on 03.07.22 at 4:21 pm

#164 Yukon Elvis on 03.07.22 at 2:47 pm

Went on a short trip a few years ago, ended up gone for 13 months. Recharged the battery in my Jeep Wrangler 4.0 litre and it fired right up after maybe ten seconds of cranking. I was surprised.

……….
it’s the “damn corn gas” that causes most problems.

NEVER leave any ethanol blend gas in your equipment/small engine tools or any motor if it’s going to sit for any time. the highest esso/chevron are corn free.

cars are more tolerant .

outboard season approaches. 60hp not 2x150hp thankfully

#168 Don on 03.07.22 at 4:51 pm

#16 DON

Maybe those rogue bioterror weapons funded by the USA.

If they use them, retaliation could wipe out Kiev for 100 years.